利息要涨？

fancycat

Pressure rises on Bank of Canada to hike interest rate for first time in year
, T7 N# z  H5 {9 @9 x3 V+ v: h/ P7 oMon May 28, 5:46 PM

OTTAWA (CP) - Julian Beltrame (CP) - The likelihood of Bank of Canada governor David Dodge jacking up interest rates Tuesday morning rose considerably after one of the country's leading private economists called for immediate action to stem inflation.
9 C7 K/ G. [% z9 O! T+ H4 T3 b
1 S1 W; g" X2 X% jTD chief economist Don Drummond, who is considered a candidate to succeed Dodge when he retires in January, lent his influential voice behind a quarter-point bank rate hike Monday, citing "pervasive inflation pressure" and strong growth that outstrips that projected by the bank just over a month ago.

"If the current pace of inflation gets embedded in inflation expectations, it will be hard to eradicate," Drummond warned.

7 I5 J0 ^# M# P5 {4 {% `  uNoting the bank's well-earned reputation for hitting its two per cent target for core inflation, "That credibility would be eroded if it allowed inflation to exceed its target for a lengthy period without responding."

" p. Y, Y5 v* k% i1 o, `+ z1 d! CDrummond also predicted that one 25 basis point move to 4.50 per cent won't be sufficient, and said the bank will need to raise the rate to 4.75 per cent in September.
; ^3 q  c3 v# j
. u, E+ T; H9 ~1 z! G! V  q: O$ BThe TD economist's call comes after a strong majority the C.D. Howe Institute's nine-member monetary policy council last week also recommended a rate hike to 4.50 per cent, with some calling for a second increase at the nearest next opportunity in July. Increasing the bank's trendsetting rate is normally followed by Canada's lending institutions charging higher interest to consumers for such things as mortgages and car loans, as well as making it more expensive for businesses to finance expansion or capital acquisitions. The long-term impact is to slow down the economy and dampen inflation.
; C, e9 {( h0 q8 k
3 ?6 R( v, U7 k- b# u$ ~, |3 {If Dodge does hike rates Tuesday, it will be the first time in a year that the central bank has budged its key rate off 4.25 per cent and may signal further boosts later in the year.
* s" ?' V  L  S1 ?& p8 i
1 K9 K4 Q4 E& j& I  e/ c8 OThe betting is still against an increase so soon, however, with many economists saying the bank would likely have signalled its intentions if it had been planning to do anything dramatic.
# W! Y5 t$ r  K6 Y# p5 L9 S
$ b2 _) x& F' I7 D9 D% H6 N" A"The bank doesn't like to surprise the markets," said Dale Orr, managing director of Global Insight Canada.

In the most recent Monetary Policy Review issued in late April, Dodge noted a "slight tick to the upside" for inflation risk, but added that "talk about an inflation trend is premature." He said he expected the economy to grow 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year and that core inflation would moderate to about two per cent at the end of the year.
6 ?. h& j2 i, v# g3 v# V& c5 T9 J5 c
Although Statistics Canada won't release the final first quarter GDP number until Thursday, Orr said the bank's prediction is history. He said growth is likely to have been between three and 3.5 per cent in the first quarter.
0 Y* }/ ], h  |9 R8 ~2 a
0 N2 [- X+ E% K" p/ A' FBut he said he wants to see more evidence that inflation is entrenching itself as a major concern to the economy.

"It's not comforting, but it's not alarming either," he said. "I think what the bank needs is one more reading on inflation. If we get the core rate notching up and another strong employment report, the bank could move the rate up in July. I don't see them doing it right now."

One mitigating factor may be the accelerating Canadian dollar, which has the effect of cooling inflationary pressure by making imported goods less expensive and Canadian exports more costly, thereby dampening output.

But there are other reasons why a rate increase may be premature, said Aron Gampel, Scotiabank's deputy chief economist. Both inflation and growth are primarily a western, and particularly an Alberta, phenomenon, he said.

Furthermore, Gampel said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its key rate soon to try and boost its sagging economy, increasing the spread between the Canadian and U.S. rates.

"The U.S. economy is weakening and if that's the case, the Bank of Canada will just stay on hold," he said.

Drummond admits he is decidedly in the minority in calling for a rate hike now. But he says history is on his side, noting the only other time the bank's core inflation target had been significantly breached was four years ago, and that was based on only a few specific items.

"Still, the bank did jack up interest rates at that time," he said. "This time the inflation pressure is pervasive."

timhorton

霜冷

Wayne67

fancycat

加拿大银行预期近期加息
. N3 c+ ~3 H. n  ~2 ?  D1 D
1 i* w. b8 U) C9 n9 W--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 ]0 y7 u) v7 \7 I/ @
多伦多信息港    2007-05-29 10:13:05
5 r8 V' R& x' [/ j  c  {* C
   近日，部分分析人士预测，自去年蛰伏不动的加拿大银行（Bank of Canada ）主利率，将会在近  
期上涨。据悉，该中央银行将于东部时间周二上午9点发布下一次利率政策公告。然而，没有人指望周二会同时宣布涨息。

　　部分银行利率观察人士认为，加拿大银行可能会在7月10日的下次会议时调整隔夜贷款利率。据了解，该中央银行的主要隔夜利率自2006年5月起，就一直稳定在4.25％。专业人士指出，利率的任何变化都会引起可用抵押贷款，活期借款及信用贷款的最高限额的连锁反映。

　　涨息时间 各持己见
& a9 Y# W: d2 H0 [4 i& M/ m
2 e  d* E% N4 p. B3 k( Q8 r" N　　银行研究部门TD Economics认为，中央银行的利率上调应该是在7月，紧接着下一次将会是在9月。TD有价证券的首席经济学家Marc Lévesque解释说，“在我们看来，通货膨胀问题已经相当严重，这将会使中央银行的利率向抑制它的方向来倾斜。”
8 r( I, X: s% c2 H4 @% Z9 j
　　无独有偶，BMO资本市场部也认为，加拿大银行不会再袖手旁观。不同的是，他们认为涨息最早也要等到秋天。BMO的资深经济学家Michael Gregory表示，“据我判断，由于加元的升值以及经济的持续走低将使加拿大银行暂时保持沉默，最少会持续到这个夏天结束。”