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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here./ U' a. I+ X4 z$ j
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* `0 ~2 p4 }/ {3 S' lThu, January 11, 20077 y0 ? f6 N1 }9 L l6 |' M9 n
$ Y' I0 _' Y9 qPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
/ K. s; d' t, f6 H$ i* UBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN8 t2 @3 ]* h1 a2 k( n; |9 W
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$ x9 D5 d2 {, m6 j) u5 sThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 0 a1 Y- M }+ x. _: j, i
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ! K' Q) [6 R8 [- f N
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." , g* y7 H+ k+ F3 ^: n, o
v* S# n( |8 y8 i3 K* SShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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8 q9 Y2 H5 N, A* A a"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. : N# `) Y9 H9 I/ @
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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2 a R. O. C% y, P% x: F"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! ^9 {8 t0 i6 j6 A) g
9 k9 X' S1 b/ \$ L7 E$ A. G. WStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. + v; k/ U9 R7 [, B D
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. # i7 b* I4 ~6 z# w) ?" ]
4 w6 Q6 ]9 I2 X0 G+ i2 I"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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1 |% {7 t; P! g7 H3 o F' IHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ' h# @( K5 i0 f
- K r+ u4 ?% HOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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$ @. O5 [2 I7 q; O& K, M% [His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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% h+ f |, k3 ^2 r"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. & F- Z/ V' {3 y. g
5 J4 j/ i$ C) h0 q3 i. ?So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. " K. S2 n; L# O6 x$ A
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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Let the good times roll. 2 [0 v ]* s5 h6 z) L
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
