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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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3 {: b( n) W8 LThu, January 11, 20074 X1 Q9 ]1 ]6 d) x# d
* y# B- B2 _5 l% Z, ~Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
+ y. R/ Z: K* F* V1 W0 T" z5 ?# ABy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: E( U3 l0 t7 Q e& J
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, Y7 u- j& v9 i& c3 w% }They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. * e- a( S! s# g6 r E; A
, m9 \$ f8 g( y! ~0 QBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. . q7 o% Z/ M) a5 _
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 5 ^4 I- ?% |" X7 ^* p9 s) Y& F
8 a4 G/ L- P& r8 Q3 g. ?& g) c- EShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. : W1 N" @+ l. F `- V
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ! t0 Y3 S* S2 W) |2 m- w
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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. U X1 a6 N9 K6 ~* Q# y) _"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ' U* j1 S% w9 h+ }. p7 A) I6 P% a
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 6 u+ c) {7 @ c
8 e0 Y! ]0 |9 G"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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* j7 g( S9 T. o/ y! zExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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9 [' R9 X8 s* Y4 h+ }0 Q! E) ZHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. : _8 l0 f8 m' m9 G6 i# Z
. X$ O! y, ]1 S V/ {"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ! V' G6 P" d" g" [
1 s1 a# q# }9 P8 g0 a/ _! jSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. , R- e9 z0 h( L; V" I
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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! b# p( B7 j6 J5 A8 J"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. " w& g9 p1 [8 m3 G0 f+ ^' L/ o
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Let the good times roll. 2 D- a: t N3 |' s
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Previous story: Bottom Line; l9 z5 s+ i# M$ U
Next story: Building permits hit record
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