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! A( o2 m4 p+ K/ I/ i0 @9 G Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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& U9 ?: n) E' S+ y& xThu, January 11, 2007 {; z; h" Q5 Y7 q. b! o
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
1 [: B+ K5 N& J5 a( Z5 rBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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5 @7 `0 ]) E3 @, s: CThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 9 x- |0 x. L e6 Y1 V1 I- D
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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8 \- m3 c5 D$ o" gShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 6 ?6 e9 b: A4 |7 t- r( O
! s& C! C5 y$ o4 d"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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' L3 i4 ~$ ~- E/ p" E; f5 TCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 2 g8 Y$ n9 e1 U4 \5 k$ g; Y$ g
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ; z5 }: M. o- S. l$ U$ Q
) T! z$ F7 w6 j' c& C/ Y- {& h1 C"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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) s( y- f! h1 A7 Z2 a" |He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ! c" a, e( z" I
$ A' a+ [8 z2 B; o2 l# j$ P. Y" cExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. , V% o7 o. J! m- l$ N
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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+ ?0 Y% j. P9 M: d, E& sHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 3 g6 u6 }: r/ A8 v
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 1 k% Z5 _+ o, ]! i1 ~
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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' h7 w2 C. D3 M( H- ]"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. $ V/ ^& d! Q# U [) }3 `; K5 l
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Let the good times roll. $ |$ j" L& b8 ~7 [9 Y* T5 k1 ?
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Previous story: Bottom Line
; i( b1 u" ^3 hNext story: Building permits hit record
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