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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com3 l, N; `1 p4 g; R
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* T4 j1 D( j9 }2 s5 Z; @5 oThu, January 11, 2007: g6 ~3 ?" I& _9 k' a2 |6 s
( q+ r# r! E; z* L1 ^ n9 KPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
% j, E6 F8 {- w5 N! V! e6 ~By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN* I$ f" H) {4 U* U/ h
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" U5 Q9 m. j1 R/ Y: tThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. $ S w; ]( s! R% N2 ^- {
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. + ^# h7 ?/ Z, m. m" N
2 [; I6 h* i8 ]. p# {Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 D7 B# G! L7 }' g
" p) B P N0 E( W) S* kShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 7 _8 Z) _: Y2 w6 G
4 i6 R3 U2 w% b) Z/ {: d& n" j% lCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 7 D. t9 A( y! G' L7 q9 j7 E# F
9 ]& f- r% _+ H+ h"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." * G7 k& y! B c, i
( x1 ]/ J! n9 {0 fStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. % U3 {8 P+ ?0 r4 ?' F) b
6 |) U! c0 Z$ k; y' Z: N8 H# S"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ' S9 K& b; m- }) P! r
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' y1 k2 U6 t& |1 G5 S
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT # Q' @/ w8 b( v% m+ Q% V c. d- x
1 E, d" }. C# N. {- L8 o+ s. uHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ! H( }6 K7 i& ^: m/ z5 d$ D
/ t6 ]1 x, D$ }$ u: K% O4 PHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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- Z' N5 {/ \* t8 D. [( xSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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X. Y# v/ z* o! ]"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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% W& n' I% f) A8 {' ]/ }. F9 s- vLet the good times roll. ( \) U( H7 V0 e$ r
4 V( ?5 i! {( Q8 R$ `6 Z. mPrevious story: Bottom Line
1 h! I' ~2 f8 i7 ~# v( x- I5 uNext story: Building permits hit record8 Z- }% n0 }/ f- U! I6 H' t
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