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' W3 E5 @: @, zPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007" I# y- e' I E4 j6 Y# E X+ Y7 |
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. & w, g1 l) }! h F8 m
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' ^+ d2 `: S2 |
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. $ B8 z! k3 t2 [2 N: t( O
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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# V; K8 V: U. p. @9 j8 |% N"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 0 [2 s* U% A+ e! {& Q
3 }+ U# `- }' E `0 `+ sShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. + b- b0 p( _+ _7 l4 m; V# W ~
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ p" w- u3 K3 T3 d2 |
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." " n& C/ t8 ~1 O# M+ g+ d$ ^
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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5 L, U8 S# S8 b# x"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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9 @# L9 h" C( I( l- o9 x/ _7 o"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. . L( O5 R' Q( v+ Y+ o: K# F1 M' j
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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' {" a/ ]' B1 F1 V0 v0 YHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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! |! Y5 i' }8 O% U5 VOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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+ K/ B% c5 z* ~- s' |His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 6 Q; j* \+ O# ~/ D
" ?! \. q! {' S$ l6 b6 U+ X"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. . ?0 Z- g `+ P. H. D! a
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ; E. ^2 e; m9 p& L2 p( @
9 d, \2 z# `1 b* [3 ]Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. O8 c6 b* y3 S; u/ _: r
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. ; A$ _0 O9 u2 d& D9 \. i
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Previous story: Bottom Line0 M1 J$ ]% o1 l$ I! S- n. \- F
Next story: Building permits hit record
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