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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...- R: R1 \8 A: ?
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3 H C1 [/ A, t- X1 L/ ]/ ^The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very8 ~: @. b1 b1 J( L2 n
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
, [6 x8 G( z+ U6 e& [3 nwill be going.. |. b, d: F( H9 U; Q: o
1 ^' T/ b3 ^0 \; i4 ~It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.. ~" b3 ~# W) ?2 M; G
$ {0 b& J9 K2 I* _& `5 UThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
3 ^0 B$ [, h2 b/ tsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
3 @+ Z1 ^4 n% T4 B1 [1 L; cindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. * ^" ~/ t( [. r3 n# k' l
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
) |% s& b% A, g& z7 dvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by) N$ { [5 y4 w! G3 ] ~0 o( y
how much.: C# D! t8 H0 u" |; Z; `
& O8 K0 N* A/ t" ]For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,0 U; j. v% V2 [ F% h0 O) y0 t
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
5 Z1 a4 R2 @1 |: t% Ostrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
: |. x! R, }9 P- u& q/ ~! efindings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -* i& a' \& T0 u9 ^/ i6 r6 k; c) z
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
; G" Q, `1 O' W8 ?markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
) d2 q" H2 [% `. zon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the: i8 V# D) N8 N
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
& H$ a8 _. P4 G- E& Bthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
* w! O. _3 f' ]3 S( C: b* Nsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
' ^* v! d, e: s7 r! [1 XThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
% Q: l+ f* s8 eincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six0 @, p/ S3 J- _+ m7 ?
months.
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" x* ]' W7 D6 p0 }5 ~$ l( KComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting W; J7 T9 H( _+ v! R3 \
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
9 L0 J, \/ ^) X+ l2 g2 kfundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
$ e* F! a. m; \) a: i# tthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait3 M1 s8 d9 Y) x6 Y+ B, X1 @ X
until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
) A: Z6 y5 p2 `because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
6 a5 d. X! Y" ~7 g3 s2005 to June 2006), also great news.& ^" p+ W% D- W A
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June8 n) d( I. u |! J. I
2006 New Housing Price Index for:: R! G0 @* ?5 P# M( T& ~0 ^; \1 m" J
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Vancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%( h' S# s* R5 F
Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%2 H4 F/ k8 q# ~" Z0 t
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%
: x5 a5 ?3 l' J3 ~0 q: vHamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
$ i4 V8 Y% O/ {: Y2 @St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
; U- H) u3 g2 d6 A/ XToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
5 T" t$ |/ j9 {( S% }Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%8 o6 J7 x; P3 e* B0 g- u
; Y( F6 V# l2 N7 S X& _) P) |Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing( I+ o: e' @! O0 A4 y
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!. F4 g) b' ~/ u+ f) P
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to0 P' |% C$ V6 A9 M
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
' a2 H+ O9 n$ n, P' M* a9 vonly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
1 i0 G$ l, Q% s2 tincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to( A) ?: f; v; F2 f1 ? O, @
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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/ @- N. z. t3 Z; T/ K) E% }Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
; v* S/ {, p1 e2 a8 D' E& h* mfundamentals:( t) e8 t9 R b2 T' Z1 J
. g: O5 f* f2 ?5 I& a) r% f* j1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
& H v" f4 M5 ^/ T$ b) SCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth6 U9 B6 D& l0 k- @+ i
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
6 i {2 B. |, ~$ Vthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.; b6 ]8 [" t, ]5 y2 C* w
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the6 C* }4 i- k# Y( W* r R8 L; W3 K1 n
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,+ j7 x! H9 ]' V" o- k, R7 v2 X
the US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see7 ?( Z$ B& t# D3 U" u' u7 i/ ?$ P
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. 2 i- v( ~; d6 J
8 @& G* O7 \/ O k3 X1 n3 ?3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment7 ^% W$ x( Q$ J
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in% I. C1 C/ z- L" c6 ]+ n5 R9 N
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after) T2 e% O4 a* U/ E- U! e+ Q) ]& ~
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
- |5 _9 Z- \/ _; zanywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again4 q; m+ d2 Y; f6 o0 u3 C
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
( i0 j+ Q6 D' L+ K9 a9 L. tpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can( G$ ?/ J# V9 E7 j5 K
beat it for long term investment.
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6 B+ |, v! ^1 r: K1 L E4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely3 K. w$ K0 a- h$ M5 t7 N% j: B
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
$ `; x% W5 x3 acreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)- Z$ E, C/ L; b% m% \- v; {
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
5 s; O! X) d6 P# lJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
' Y1 t# y7 G! f" Z2 ufirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
# I6 g _1 q) N+ qeconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of M+ M# X; s; \1 P
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
* j+ ^: Z6 q4 r4 b4 urepeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
% o& k$ R# u9 A7 Q( u# O% K4 ?its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at: Y% x& \8 G+ `- \" z% v
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate/ d: Q0 y4 o( Q, Z( l. s/ n& j! @
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in( Z, P+ o# K* _+ s- L1 f; s
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.4 a8 K( N6 a/ n! P. h
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong g6 k) q7 d3 j0 k8 ?$ B
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
5 n) E. E+ ]0 B! d9 D( Z'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
2 W2 V4 u! G$ H) q9 e: ^. @your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the1 N! ?' e, I4 y% Q& {# s2 \
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
5 P. o7 [$ v# k% ` t. z'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared! U* |7 I! y. K
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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# A3 {/ Z' b6 n' g! r+ @Capital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
4 i& i _5 ?3 @2 AMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see; y$ e7 V& b, B: t
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%
& C L8 G, [' J9 H& YAB . . . . . . . . 19.5%
. U# Y. ?2 D9 ]. sSK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
* e3 ]- t I( y9 @2 e iMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
) R) i( E _9 J |3 A7 RON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
3 T2 h& {* R# {; P; ?QC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
! _4 o0 p* ?# ]+ t) ]NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
$ E4 {7 M( v3 Z$ V5 X4 BNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%* V5 p/ v8 ~# L8 h
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%
0 O y$ v' S6 r! b/ J7 h7 h4 ]) S" wNF . . . . . . . . 24.3%
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term4 _+ [0 B9 S: t1 q
economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of8 e5 K* q r) u+ Y" ^9 j9 A
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.
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0 `- u/ p( c7 H+ yOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the$ R$ Z5 ^. M* M( f& H
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
1 z4 h! u; t7 B7 n& Mcourse, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
) z+ b2 \* [$ Wevents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion5 f/ |' G+ S8 V3 ]# l
when you take action as a full REIN Member.- E8 K* X# T% r$ p; F! ^8 |2 ~+ A8 `
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
, k% U' D8 P# q" ?9 qresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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