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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...) H7 Z+ ^6 `* {& j2 e
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very$ R) @! T* F x3 c
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
: T4 E1 X( v7 wwill be going.
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/ [& E9 o5 p0 e! N" J0 vIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.9 `3 H' Q+ x% T$ Z# e3 m7 l r
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
7 X5 K* n2 Q: {$ e( P5 E, H. ]6 Dsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an8 v. s3 a: ?, {2 ~6 c
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. ) I) T- [; e; F) K
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
) x. V# {9 j! Z9 h& v% o3 S( bvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by2 u6 F0 g! n6 K5 i5 k+ g; W
how much.0 m# o7 V' b P& E
. A) Y8 t. m. t/ l( gFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,& ?2 x& h# J$ m3 F8 r2 d
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
z4 X, j% ~3 f5 E" kstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest; l1 ~9 N" _# b" X5 O" q: x1 [
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -6 v8 ^3 L: i5 H* f
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
1 a1 C. C P/ Fmarkets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
9 X. k: T3 l, F6 x! b+ w' Won average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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+ [, N; Z$ g3 Z C( \: M+ \+ A! VTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the- g7 i( h- o) `% B$ m3 M
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
8 {9 k! H6 \2 P( h# }7 N8 L; G p7 |the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we! P" c7 B, N! l. n& C" u8 Q, O6 S
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
( a6 h& ^7 X- G2 r1 \This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
% v B3 e! |# ?% v# ]" sincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
9 W; y6 i1 M2 C! Z! v) A- O: Imonths.
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
/ e6 P; n9 i5 Z* h1 \caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
6 _9 F. i% h6 D( ?fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
3 k1 S/ U' C* } R. |: _8 ?the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait- B( ?2 t* x7 E6 g
until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all2 C; B% W6 M: {! z7 T
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.- ^" g( n! ^& [9 z
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
2 r9 k4 D! G5 N: C `2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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7 K9 W1 x! ~( ~2 gBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
# Q: Q0 n) ]! A; J9 E2 J2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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9 A, g$ S$ f6 _" y' gVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
6 a* D7 c# f$ Q. r' B$ P/ @9 KSaskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%& }3 c. e2 P7 @' s3 b- ~) {' m- L2 Q+ y
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%
: j9 D2 b0 t5 n) mHamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%* {4 ?: I# P$ T; V* [4 t0 [+ t
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%8 f/ P- C) v" g( c
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
0 o. T+ H( z' ^0 z% l7 o( KOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%, r0 e- h- }5 V0 N$ z, [. ?9 h2 k
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing: i# M) F0 u0 O' @
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!
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- H& b6 Q- l5 \: F! z* i" n8 }As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
' s) r7 Q* p# Q* h- T8 dbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
9 M# x( q2 @+ |& H* r S: @/ F4 tonly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are0 j% ~2 J: F, E6 c& w: S/ l
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
- V! }" y! B' X* T6 G: zdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.% Q c( t+ T2 |* u$ s) H
$ s! X; N! F/ Y# PHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong& }- @6 Z% g ^9 f
fundamentals:0 t8 |, @0 k5 c' H6 Q a7 x. h
. |, |+ B/ U9 `* P9 ]9 `( y1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in0 u3 p: m$ e8 _$ j E
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth9 r: @& ?1 h5 j5 K; _2 O
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
: ?- d3 F7 E' G: M" I: k5 Sthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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_: x: v9 N+ r8 z& m3 s$ ~2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
# G5 x9 l8 H) q, M% a4 n/ }world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
* }5 H% }# w X9 ]7 A1 u) o; Sthe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
5 y& V% d( ?3 `# g$ lthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment% l6 N4 t: m& \2 O
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in* m) h }* Z; j9 T- x2 d* t9 n/ H& I
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after* Z& ~2 a9 n# V0 C( ~7 X# i
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest# v' `1 s1 x9 b+ _% ?" ?
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again) c- l4 I6 l7 |: Z% [$ d. Z e) F
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the* W6 H' O% |% N& G6 i0 D
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can* O$ o& [$ F. P. J7 R
beat it for long term investment.
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4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
" s5 u9 z3 t! E3 E5 j5 Wa sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
O4 M0 e& p6 Y2 F" a( vcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)& d$ Q0 A8 b A8 e( j. Q5 u- D+ t' u3 I
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
0 N) k: r/ M' t- n2 v- z9 ?) m3 NJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
, {- a. K+ u f h/ {first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the. \& v7 f% t0 d, o
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
- u6 b) g" V/ Z2 N. mthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
4 t# n" z( O3 w/ xrepeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with% O) q. Z9 N5 R d
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
6 M9 B0 _$ c# \+ m! vits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate. A, f- K _2 u9 R$ ]+ y7 W4 T
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
0 [ a, l, U5 A/ l. j Qwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.# j7 d0 S1 A8 _9 S
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- A ~) P3 K2 AIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
% q/ ]( H9 |" V0 }! p0 m% Y* Reconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed, g( {+ O* [% j& i6 W, M1 n
'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
! a; h: X }1 w* Uyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
, z, g: m1 Q" y v# u) }opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the% v1 E% h" l8 A; K0 s; O1 X, @
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared) p/ N; Y- ~$ X: N4 m0 P
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.$ X& H; k* a/ |9 C* b% a
E! s( w9 v0 S- U
9 Q& G! N% N/ SCapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
& g1 X: q" [, L+ {" g3 jMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see- C/ {9 Z# U3 {, E9 ~7 @7 j
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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8 U( x. L# Q- V& HBC . . . . . . . . 21.9%
; M6 v0 ^. w' d xAB . . . . . . . . 19.5%5 S, R0 C- l) L, O. S2 z
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
" \! ~; b% A& v0 t. |8 h: Y, d$ WMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
& f- i1 n8 K7 x1 f9 FON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
0 j6 u2 u5 v2 C6 X4 b; lQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
! a5 D3 D8 k6 K( c( I. fNB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
: C$ _( X% y) i4 {1 h8 J2 m! q0 JNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%
1 @4 L2 P& r! f5 s- fPE . . . . . . . . 23.7%+ b8 B% }' R9 c' N' ^
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%9 s; t7 n L# d' R9 a* Y7 T! h, U, Z
6 P, C" J3 q" I+ E; e. W" uLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
/ R$ P$ h E; K# s( J- veconomy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of# A/ X- T+ m8 ^4 ^% Z
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.
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" v& ?- S/ Y$ Z0 M0 c& _4 eOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the/ h7 _! p, v1 r7 E% I$ m8 w2 F5 {9 a
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
: o( h7 J, [9 P7 W! g, j$ Icourse, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'4 R$ J D0 I: }7 U" C5 Z$ [
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion5 g6 Q2 P; ?8 k6 r
when you take action as a full REIN Member.. Y+ k; W: N- ]4 J
i0 ]; w) G( @3 v% XFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
2 S* q; C( O" x! vresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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