there is a difference between peony (SHAOYAO) and tree peony (MUDAN), let's assume you meant SHAOYAO which is pretty common in Canada.: P5 D% y/ Q8 ? L/ Y) Q
first year no chance; 2nd year 50/50 (99% chance to bloom if you were in central china ); 3rd year 95% given that you treated it the right way.