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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.% a. r5 j3 I& T( e% g* U- j( d
$ a3 {1 V7 C+ E" D% v' ahttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html% X9 A) E+ {+ W: s2 V
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.! m/ i8 `+ y7 V9 Z7 \
/ n+ K" v, p( ]6 ~People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.2 X3 E$ O. P. Q/ C# s% f
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Why might it be a good time to sell?
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" p8 a1 ~) e- V, dAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.% ]7 l3 J0 A% `4 v; a
# s: Z' w8 d5 D6 n8 l"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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8 e# f4 w7 N$ f9 Z6 n- Z2 B"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.4 B8 ~" j$ S0 t8 k! j2 D$ L6 H
: j V W4 N1 @; RThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.9 O! {- ^8 s z
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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' e; V& i1 L3 ]7 v; ?0 }Burleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.+ ?+ K% a# s# B/ e4 b: ~
) c2 L; k* Z$ N1 g7 v5 nWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.1 [) E1 z' Y2 v7 L+ q! r, c) J
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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( h3 r! `& Y" e. z6 C2 mAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.: z: g+ c: P0 {5 h; B' B4 b. k5 N, N) V
+ ?6 x7 o4 O) i" H6 AIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.1 @8 s) l- { Z
0 c) O3 ?% F+ nMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.8 R2 X* L- m; P/ l
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying./ ~0 Q" x( M2 U
0 X4 {- G6 [$ ?3 x# w; zDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."9 j4 L" G0 i' [% X1 A- ]' c" A% [
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.2 ~+ p0 R- ?+ ?7 T0 J! J% _6 ?- L
& `$ I7 u& c$ Q Z# z! eBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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