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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation. |! ^, \/ B$ m. B, `2 K* Y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 r4 ~% [; e. j. K g; cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ E0 Z- r3 R; |2 o9 d$ x3 ^impose liquidation values.
- t D9 a+ s8 x6 K$ r In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ Y' |5 q/ p8 T4 k0 a5 i5 H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( k) T$ X8 h6 ` m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& e0 o) R2 c3 ~/ o% yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 N( }; B0 M* h4 P9 F8 b
& f J% E, L+ E) E( ^5 CA look at credit markets
1 J7 s8 h0 q9 n0 ]# W3 Z' T' v' ] Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. I7 B; V# T! s
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) b. X4 ` m5 O7 b7 U
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ \$ E$ A0 j$ n/ b' i% o, rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 N' Y4 Y- {) R% K. O( \% Abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ H0 o5 {/ H* m8 A+ \$ z% Z1 I
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: k. D; |+ w7 H2 p1 y/ xCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 q8 A- ]2 R, B1 Q6 M1 ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( o! O& t4 S- S8 m e3 h7 a0 P( g% o
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ t8 O* t# u! l3 I! z
finding financing.
$ |" k" k% J- S4 S7 e0 n Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: P* |- l& c7 x1 Q9 b5 ~3 y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 _/ r0 P* r! B2 L! J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 k* h2 U* K8 r3 F! Pis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( e7 ~: }( m: ~6 T& egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ [1 l! \ r% B8 ~8 D6 K. @) N& H) pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 P7 b2 p0 B) b# e0 l' z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! M2 |; W& c% n6 S& @: Y% qtoday.1 [0 U) @* i0 X, Z0 z; X( v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) d( _/ h+ ?& remerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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