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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  B4 n" s6 q% R! e& G
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Market Commentary
; B' m# Y8 H7 x& s5 _. [; O3 \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 e3 O  K2 [1 i3 q) bJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% G) H; z6 t$ r7 O& L# L. N! w6 A
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
3 T6 Y5 u+ H- x: ^5 w$ u Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 v6 s3 `2 l) s: h3 P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 Y5 e  Q  k/ X* z1 E1 W Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 I, E# l6 h8 C% @+ g$ z, F
adjustments.3 H  X7 p; O/ b8 S9 F+ R: E4 _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social4 f& D$ {" v3 f/ s6 P5 X
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& k: |+ G2 d% u% N4 t Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% h. k. @. L% n, K1 ?2 Ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- \! y, p( F3 i4 K7 a" M; I We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 u# L1 V$ O! \
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 q: u  K. E! |) o1 G$ F2 ~* ^ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ O4 H4 q& d; n$ l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 v7 u. h: _5 x
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, U9 B& |! h% ?, F0 t6 x- V  ~8 }/ h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. a) F* `# }$ F7 }2 a' u8 q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" D# i; v, c' @
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ D4 [6 F* g# ~0 {5 ]! R2 }
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 w9 G/ H4 ~3 O% Y
impose liquidation values.
, F( a# A& ~, k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( Z4 A5 k# @! AAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 P4 b) ~1 r+ K. L; i The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 ?  a6 f* a1 T9 }! v& O
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* L7 W; T$ w) U

1 ]. w4 X9 b4 F* BA look at credit markets+ M. Z; p# ?( m& M; E  _( T
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ @7 R" ?0 v" e! h
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., ^1 }9 g# w% _1 L+ Q' `8 k. r* l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* e" q. O3 k, N8 r$ ?" zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% K/ [* Q+ g. V2 C. }  i2 Rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 H+ G' d' ?+ f% ~$ uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' g( ~, @0 @. V$ m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" E8 {1 S3 t) ]5 Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' L6 m( Z1 J% H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 K# ~( M7 H% u5 X" Pfinding financing.
- v- Y' H* q) P6 p6 H. k Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 a$ j, `9 i8 K' n- c% u8 \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 O% I6 a: t6 y- Q" d: o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 B0 _' x9 Q( C- C  P
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: p7 y; B0 t0 `9 n/ d3 V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" B  b) L, ?' O) Cbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 P" n' f( e( ]/ E" r) u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: a7 `! @  q. K* P3 I) Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 I9 W; v  U" A2 x, i2 e Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ }% W9 B, W& q1 |( lthe Greek default.
3 d& _: S1 S+ a2 ~ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- t$ S" j+ M' ^" L' q/ |' g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default* s/ v3 J* |# z% `8 o: U5 U  j
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 N4 T, c* F+ x' ]/ }% i4 V$ H
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' E" X$ L1 E2 ^: t3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 _8 t+ |2 j" E
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years+ }, }# \; N/ \) y# I
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece0 U, u6 k# E3 n" M* t2 ]
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% w) c1 Z  c* Xbut that was before Italy.2 q3 m& |6 s& L9 N6 I
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: b" T$ V8 a4 _0 r6 W: q$ g- C
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" `2 o* M* Q7 \# [+ iItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ \. H* c0 z; v* e% o
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Conclusion; i. b& v+ `3 a* D
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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