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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  A% {# \( A' S$ W1 D0 Y5 @
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Market Commentary
8 Y5 k3 t1 p% U5 {Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 B! Z- D1 r& zJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  m9 {8 e+ E/ D, e
Signature Global Advisors- Y/ v1 _  o8 y5 h% N& \
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Background remarks
7 g4 Q' h" V2 C0 _/ h+ L) n/ y! U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ B7 E2 {5 _9 a" \0 vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: b3 a7 \- w3 h Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 }" J# U. t- {5 ~* sadjustments.! O, ^' g& W( B$ E  X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! k* I1 d1 n6 ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ o" f( _/ d0 E Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 r, i' T7 t6 `lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; g+ {1 O  e2 ?' s) R+ U6 f We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. }( z& R7 ~  r, `* h
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 F* H: i8 O( r+ H' j Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 k$ n9 m9 y* K( H, q9 E7 m6 w
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." G8 z( }3 G( r  {6 v$ K3 I
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 n; V' F# |# [
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; F" v$ i& |% Y, d7 y. Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* s8 R5 y8 R/ Q' o" g. R( Y2 a; }
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! c5 ^+ x( h( }, b+ M% b/ @7 Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) Z2 C1 Q4 ]* [5 n0 _6 j( C
impose liquidation values.- Q0 w2 J, `8 D! Q4 V/ G
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- [  H8 q5 J) }, K9 c8 k6 PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.7 l" s8 e) h1 s+ A
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 B8 T# M) Y0 h( Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., s7 U3 J% e/ U2 [
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A look at credit markets# C" {* R, X3 ]/ r0 |$ J
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  q9 @$ M8 w  e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 V& r7 i5 R, l4 Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- H# t( n  M8 C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& c5 `4 R  O3 H- ?) b
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' V. O9 O: M9 U2 J* [/ laccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" V' U+ l4 L$ _% F* p
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& H* R9 ?* `3 E* ?positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& |' [6 ~1 {/ C4 |/ z# t Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' O/ v; ~; I4 k% D7 E
finding financing.* Q& s. q4 t4 M. T7 a9 W% ^+ A
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ ^4 G$ [) Y( Z" r4 V
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 O9 B. Q" ?, ~" p5 A  f$ a- ^! f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 k( T% D. N! p" P( mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 K: z+ m( A& B9 B1 r9 Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" o- \7 x9 W, B& S0 a" }
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  I5 q* f$ Z  n3 ^5 E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" w- j% m4 V0 `6 D8 R* Ctoday.6 k+ W% ~0 u: q& }- T4 \4 E! }7 V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 Q5 ^1 u# y0 m! F3 w; temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- i* w  P8 ^5 O
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 k$ ~& n4 @7 _% B
the Greek default.
' |" a0 ?( L, ?. i) d As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ G: s/ h5 M' \2 ^; c
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 m6 z  C" f7 l  x  Y: _& ?
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. _9 B& x6 J: E% {; p% Y% M
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.- M8 z: n0 _4 A6 Q& ^
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- t' ^+ @2 Q4 a! b8 s1 W/ _0 r; Vbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 z1 E: w- |% x* r5 F, [2 f4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; w& O4 Z6 A' p& m1 _

5 s9 U# ~5 }8 q- H* {+ ABeyond Greece1 s) i. m" d8 `
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: V' S% |3 O$ X# S5 q/ p: `but that was before Italy.
( B3 Z  ?( D, M1 `3 i) J3 y1 P! J It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; I$ q1 i4 t, h% |' m8 s" Y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. F& d2 T/ n3 P0 b) n$ H9 ~  w
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion' P- p- Y9 B# M& s/ d
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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