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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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; t- P( v/ `: hMarket Commentary: G  H0 e/ v1 {# d. ]+ @# R% Q" Q) V; V
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 \& S8 K4 U2 M+ ?; [8 zJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% g3 Z; M4 t0 w( n7 m7 T
Signature Global Advisors
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7 r! g, e0 c# w8 h6 xBackground remarks/ @/ T& G! A( n1 b
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
4 t0 z& p  H+ i8 ]6 P' l7 q& ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. F4 H! F; O9 g0 C/ m- |: l/ T. Z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 K3 `% u2 \3 yadjustments.8 @( F$ O! s; @4 t* a9 x
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, I0 }% ~, J; {5 k
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* V3 `. C$ i% ]/ x6 ^ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are- K9 R# [# ^* z4 o& T
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 x" W4 u* }4 l We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) l" x& g  U7 k6 z% A" N
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." e: q: U* o2 w; z! t+ w6 q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& [. i% T. o, g: C+ h6 q* K8 i
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 @% o% m. f1 q( ~4 @% Q  X% U: ` Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 O6 {* t$ R, Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 u1 B/ q$ C! @: }. F  H, Ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; l2 ^! p5 q! m9 k* M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ \! Y2 ]! O0 G: p8 @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ E5 k  }0 m2 m: {1 u5 Wimpose liquidation values.
  G7 V" z3 n- B7 T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; l0 |' I9 V7 f7 tAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 d+ d& ^8 H- B* ?; D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, T( _5 X$ C/ i' Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
/ R3 k1 U) y+ ?1 D2 k. ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 w0 z8 W/ P1 Q% ?/ o
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. F) ~1 a0 K# R; z* w- o
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 R/ V/ M1 b. z  B5 v7 H9 B  _& d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: E5 O) f" W% E" Pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! @4 c1 ]2 h# G+ y% }  G7 Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
6 k6 M& {! b. I( G% t; K5 S+ e, D9 XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
5 ]9 }  L! W6 p; N$ X1 G" p6 J/ o+ vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; }5 _# t3 q) w: F) u, g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* u1 h8 F2 T* N! |1 p) B/ Jfinding financing.  x) y( o% ~0 j5 r  R# b1 r' Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 h: D4 h! r4 t$ f* x, }) V
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. i8 v" I* y* k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! B  w& h6 V4 z! ?' c3 W+ s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( ~) a5 I; o. I5 g' k, ^# zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 y) q, ~8 n" bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. F$ L$ E0 @3 K. z. M, O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. s/ [; I+ a3 z: s& D8 q8 z8 B- A
today.
7 r& j* K# C  [% X; B0 L4 i; |  u2 o Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' G1 j5 K: N( g! y6 L
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& }$ V6 o* |+ \( [7 {# @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 i8 x* C/ k6 q/ t$ t
the Greek default.) _3 X6 Q1 g2 B( e8 `* |+ T
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" w4 T* J$ v( p* y3 @+ H7 A8 h" Y1 I1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 H1 f2 f0 I: H2 l* U( K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- d( u. i" {6 L6 F
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: G' @8 c( r# P+ W% Y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, e7 j* R4 v2 Rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 @6 W* {; P) {# y% w7 u) e* Y7 w
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! S+ E$ M0 i$ c. B5 a) ~' l# P! i. b, f

8 e4 ?% \; \' d( J( IBeyond Greece
  p* o2 X$ J5 M3 e$ ~0 B2 V The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
5 q5 T2 e. R* p: cbut that was before Italy.0 N( p  N1 X2 T  [! y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- F0 z& T. v6 Z& c6 a It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; A' J( p% [0 }& a- O* NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% J0 G1 \) C4 C/ X( ]9 x
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Conclusion+ F" `+ H) O& O: J. A
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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