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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; o; S1 ?' P# P* e

$ J2 P) Q, t+ ~# ^Market Commentary: M6 i# w2 K1 `, f/ P. I
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 v( z  ^" ?  U! ?! M- W; C8 i3 Y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 G6 ~- U' Q" h' E# h. [+ v4 R; o* q
Signature Global Advisors0 H, m* X' _# g: e

8 W/ G, J  D3 j5 C' |$ g6 W5 Q+ b( h2 A
Background remarks- S" m- H( U9 |5 X/ b
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- N  K- J) c% Z2 m( Y7 ?4 [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* H* P% M; o$ J. L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 J. S$ T( b2 n( V/ W- O
adjustments.. s4 t0 _" O+ u
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 ], t" _8 J$ F7 m5 @! t; _% }# K
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 a$ ^8 c5 T5 f! Y
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- w% Y3 B- t' N. }2 ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! V' f5 m9 q8 a. N. R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 O. B! _2 q0 [, ~9 i
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  Q* f* B9 T/ A! z" \) K! v+ h3 i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
7 n' n/ ?# I) |: kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ O# G) [) S' s" V' @
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 K0 Y: P! N8 ~ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 n! o  b8 _- a6 n9 [2 o. {, V- i5 mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* I# f. h  F' B( { The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& l6 }7 I% {. g6 b7 N
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* O& G/ o) E: l4 R0 v/ ^4 W1 K
impose liquidation values.
3 @& u9 q  a% x" D/ ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 g4 A2 @% Y4 ^2 FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# {& a. z  c. z" N+ s/ V: U8 H& d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- Y0 `0 x6 [% Jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." i, ], q% {! L- t/ ]' l! U1 n
* G5 Q* V) H3 L" d
A look at credit markets  N5 N1 l* Z/ Z6 q# f; \
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( f6 R6 S% ~9 O  z/ L' ESeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& Q8 n7 l; i+ K6 q" ~, N
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. j" k( S8 R* D* \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $13 U( f2 \" [& J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, F! h) Q; K6 B3 Zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" w# _" c2 k& P5 i- j3 ?
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  _4 A7 n+ H; w% Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& L" D8 m1 v" x* p8 b Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, }3 n. u2 }( M; Q" B# t
finding financing.
, ~7 J6 k1 }0 A' o Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* m5 T- w& P) x  pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 x. c+ L# O4 G4 b, c Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 s6 S/ d# ~+ }0 H" z8 c8 e; fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) G9 A; u2 C; n0 F; @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* Y& q$ b0 F- C1 n
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ m4 f6 m- A( _0 E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ F5 f1 F# X# Ttoday.
8 o& L& m2 @, V& b2 P: N: g Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 g! y8 {7 C  h2 q  d9 e
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% Y$ g$ k4 n5 ~1 s. G: z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* i) @* U1 }4 o
the Greek default.
% H: y! {  R3 D* |! P* P, R& o& u As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 M4 i, Z; A2 V1 F1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! }, Q2 v  u  X; ^4 Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 W2 {) T6 A5 A' Z; i9 O' k! y: Hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 g: D% `2 P0 k1 Q2 Z5 [
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing; l$ P) u( D: s7 a" ?$ z- p
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& |% I2 G) p, `" c% t/ `- i  o
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
* n" P- _( n" T0 R; v# m; G3 ~9 l
. i% B. a7 y0 X' G% a. r4 w; iBeyond Greece( |8 g8 R4 V& `& q3 s- R& F/ E4 i
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 Z3 J1 d5 j3 H8 i6 G1 O
but that was before Italy.) `9 f- b$ N& n1 v3 `
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 i3 [  e# Q/ E6 Q/ i: x; {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 h2 d( Z/ q- H" ~
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
2 J! |* b+ t; Z, P9 }3 ^
( z  Q1 C- B/ @: n" ~  zConclusion' p$ D* }7 L: e0 \3 o+ l: \
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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