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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ }7 ~8 w' F# w; t5 T/ R) A& H
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Market Commentary
$ M. s- w3 ?5 @1 L) i8 r. WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 i% c' n% J9 j& TJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' V1 q' {8 h6 |$ y( O: G$ A: HSignature Global Advisors
/ [, a3 K2 E8 ]- W+ _" ~: K0 N6 _
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' u4 M# ^0 _/ D9 GBackground remarks
/ k4 }4 V# D7 X2 i Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 k0 H, j- V, V% B3 l. i8 m$ N, R
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 x. j/ q) V* U% @
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  J4 H3 D5 r4 j5 O
adjustments.
  w2 F, v# @9 U This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% }" m! [6 F' F  z7 z  Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 h+ X, Y: t% T* h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: y1 X8 S: [0 ]' D7 B. \: i! p. mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. f- h; N4 c; u- _. T0 x) `0 F2 n We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ j" d1 K( k; S9 w0 wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 K! X/ w+ t( X( r& H6 J0 @' U+ B4 ~4 ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) Y# o" z; v/ D* a+ T! A6 B
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." G9 `/ M2 D& l3 ~5 r
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( I! o8 w1 b1 M% j. X" l9 d( H Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 H5 F; k( T# B5 }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" s, E( j5 B1 r/ W# I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ G8 b4 `3 G% }' ]0 u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: k1 F$ k. ?) g2 u* T) B
impose liquidation values.
& }' L8 S, G1 R, \# `; J In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  n, n2 }# [- |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) K6 m6 N: P# f  N( ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! q8 y) `. w' ~& ~scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ V/ \  H: a- Q
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A look at credit markets' `* b. H4 j3 {0 }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ C' Y/ Y) j1 J* ^! O/ C; Z: j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 p/ ~" h/ R3 } High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; T- T" F- L. `. M. B8 Ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 q- F2 P0 E  }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 S4 c8 l9 Y' Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 _. m- N  \, g4 }3 f) Q) t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& ^! T' z! f5 O. ]0 }5 C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# \* P) f" J3 a7 s' ~' s$ H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 y$ ^# W7 b4 q* ^* {; e: f7 V
finding financing.3 [' f" e* L4 E4 f% [  M+ J
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" i. `$ B9 F- O; p) \were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- {8 G" A) a) ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 }, }& L" n9 H* ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* ?6 F, e" c: m( s+ `$ F! Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! J+ V& w! u7 N8 P& y: O; H7 Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, D% v, `8 X" T- o European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 b. y5 C' I/ Q( c$ z# P; R$ ~
today.
4 b4 `5 M7 V* T& ^5 b Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ J1 T+ q1 C3 S: h& Y, n- y9 Lemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! C, N8 S. D. W) c/ M
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* t$ \# S+ L/ Q, i8 C- A+ }: t/ Ethe Greek default.
9 y# L- B5 o) }% M; o, S& k6 k As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 Q/ G' x  h2 Q9 L1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ r( K: k7 ~* B! n  Q( o! _2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 W1 k; o. z$ `7 F1 }+ \
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 _$ H7 {8 Z- R  I% I$ }! `4 i4 a
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- j, r: L$ c' h" |6 M
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  D7 x9 G* G+ f& f7 y" ?0 O; H& O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) h, h- p5 h6 M5 C) l! c! |$ P
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Beyond Greece
/ F4 U. G/ `+ R: g9 y+ n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! g& y) @, }) C) M, m$ s, R5 c
but that was before Italy.# ^# d( J+ m3 Z% |
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; R" Y5 I6 j+ ^$ t# c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 z8 Q2 Z$ i. g3 @# `Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
0 d1 x+ V( `: g2 _6 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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