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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
9 B$ y% m% X3 f6 K* QEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. D% R/ l' s! {; i% A6 TJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 X8 b9 V6 N. b' k. s) RSignature Global Advisors" b! `4 z1 y4 O7 F% z% S  L

8 v& z& l$ O- |9 p* p& v3 `
( M$ S) u/ ^7 YBackground remarks
1 C, o/ u/ @8 Q& | Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( r' A$ x# B5 s) N9 _as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' G! f$ N* Z+ f8 {; R Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, G# ~( I+ y& P$ O1 c( }2 A; Y( }adjustments.5 [7 `) }" V" s
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# R# o$ f5 A  n3 t6 f- ^$ Usafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 _/ W3 J3 a8 p2 ^: X. I Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& x3 |  T/ p; f+ L2 xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- E# Q# P1 ]- P0 D
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 C/ R  |# P! G+ i# t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. ]1 m  h$ g' b
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 r% c" ]3 ^$ e, Yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 F7 N; D2 U! l
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- B# D! m) V! F2 u% `" P* _9 l7 ~
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 G. @( V2 {2 w6 ]reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% [* \' ~! f5 K9 x9 i) v% E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. W, A7 t/ q; xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 `. P4 c0 w1 i$ y
impose liquidation values.
4 T* {* p/ P% R1 D/ I. A7 @3 h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 ]* s" [: c) t# S2 ]; [1 g( P2 y) uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* }# j0 e/ T8 C" S4 @% B The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. }! c9 U8 u# C/ Z2 o! Uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) P$ e# \/ r3 D$ W
1 M9 q$ f4 p/ M" d4 m
A look at credit markets
( Q& L7 s7 J9 z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ g- j, v( L% T& @/ \1 |5 Q; C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* F. l9 _* A4 |& {
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 Z3 H3 [0 f/ t" v) [( Fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 [+ i( Z6 i. N: h! N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 r9 L' w( V. t* J( ?access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 B' T8 c2 }7 {+ E4 }0 \/ u
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 a# A, ?& V0 Y' W; j4 Y% kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: ?' S8 h- {" n5 b8 c! |
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; u0 J7 \, e& ?3 H) V) X
finding financing.5 H9 i2 M1 t. R
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they& v' Y7 M- ~  L) A& J- Z: c& h
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! ^. \3 K" I$ ]/ ]. v! ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 f4 i- H' R; j# a9 W! `is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  H9 t3 A& ^4 Q& u! D8 mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# b' A7 ^5 ?+ J8 U' ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ B4 B6 A# P3 B+ V
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 |3 Y8 v' T7 O9 y3 Atoday.& j- l' c, h+ v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 Y! }: G1 Z+ `( I4 vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' G0 i, j! H! S7 ?+ L
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 u" j) ]( _9 V( z  n$ C7 i+ ]  @the Greek default.7 M# n# f4 i+ _' r6 q) r
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, [( m9 A5 @0 q1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" y" a; K; Y* a- C1 g
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: c# Z5 a3 ]2 O- `
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# l8 \0 B2 w: H# }( |# i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% M# z4 j$ T+ r- `0 a
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' y2 E& a2 z; X: v9 j4 x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
7 X. Q$ y: @8 ~3 c* M2 h/ i' j. |7 g
9 Z0 w/ u2 x7 O8 a2 w$ k) l0 ]Beyond Greece
( b2 ?; f. b, j( \9 k- P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# I$ U  g! X3 Z* u0 R: C1 S$ H
but that was before Italy.
7 ?9 Y  r( B9 F; ]7 ]$ Q8 e! K" N It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; Y1 G# q4 ]8 v1 @! p
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- `) w. U$ ^4 N& C7 I" a0 h4 G
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.- Q4 e- \8 G% T  G+ x
$ v& I) F3 B/ \& L; B5 k
Conclusion
& d* T( e) D" n# q! I% y/ o2 v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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