市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( O, W1 A: `  b! \5 [* X& VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

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Background remarks
; B2 D1 I& `) s! x1 f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) f0 a" o# J# }4 {" C6 Padjustments.
# j5 }2 ?4 |# C& \8 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ {3 y: J+ H$ i4 dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 q3 f& l! O+ k( U9 K" h" O) Jlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ g* P$ j2 k2 q' J* f/ R- }- b+ h We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  K$ j+ Z3 K5 H5 }4 Kimpose liquidation values.
% |/ T+ F( B* f3 O0 R In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 l$ }" _2 c3 [% |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' s: k2 z2 q. w2 ~) c5 ]! escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

% s% O! w+ K4 i' S. p8 p6 }3 N  M( }A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% s2 d- R, ?" H  R2 W" JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% r6 W1 N5 R& y  W6 |2 Xbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 @& F2 s6 {2 C4 I7 mCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( o( f- B0 x* p  m: y7 {positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 _  `1 [3 _6 w2 K' @9 y8 X# R+ X1 B/ j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
* e4 B  ~! t0 g- b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 B/ @! |0 d* ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' w& h/ T' x$ Q  A8 i5 O Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' M+ K7 c8 T$ F4 m$ yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 i; w% z0 Z3 p* v0 Ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. j% t$ r) K. r# c' gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! C; ?8 o2 e9 @& k: q4 j& A% @emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( l. G6 |8 s4 U8 o2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- V; J( J0 S3 e" U0 }9 J3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- A+ L. g. ^. |8 }+ Z; ]banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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$ n/ z4 t. @% _2 I2 l* hBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
( x+ t( c  \( {* ` We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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