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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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! z* |1 f/ i( Q/ |6 F( D! ?Market Commentary
$ O% h9 m( V, |( _5 sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 E" d0 B% C  z: C; F. b6 C% f
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 X- g! P" {/ N# m% N3 d
Signature Global Advisors5 f5 A, c9 w& P, i" U6 v
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Background remarks; e7 U" y, Q: \1 r9 W/ x& z# B# a: Z: y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; d' @5 V1 K' W+ m4 P1 m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# }$ X1 W9 F6 L# H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  ~! U8 I: t: g0 i8 {, s7 Padjustments./ Y( S) Y  s  r
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 c& W1 f! T, j5 |/ `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- t0 t7 q3 M$ S: T1 l2 T9 D5 _
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 {' t) D" Z% M- h% b
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 h7 H9 _4 v3 R) p: B) g We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- `7 B: a1 j" H4 F/ h0 j7 ?' b* ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
+ F. L' u/ e: i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 X  c) \; \" _0 p  f) J" s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- R9 E; T2 f  N7 o/ A" ~ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% L$ V  I4 J( Z4 d1 c7 J
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- r8 ^+ `1 X+ `) R- y: treduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ _8 ]9 o6 s" M7 I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" S( v+ b% m( ?% x% Q. M7 Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' U3 e5 P/ X- a8 s2 R+ U% {
impose liquidation values.
9 N& i! W8 ^: Q! c8 ]% \# u$ C" _ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 f+ }' U$ t4 n+ n1 F4 SAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* t% c1 ?0 Q0 d! q" @! r7 A& ]
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 g  X3 J: M+ d  bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets3 c) o& q, n/ \% Y  v
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, s; S( {& O! K6 a# ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 U3 ]4 K! s" \: y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) h' F+ G/ K: S# L. Othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 Y6 x9 Y7 `1 x- [4 L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" I- ^# u$ N; z" _/ ~$ D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 F/ ~; N) Q! O6 BCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. [4 h" V1 D) X$ {; C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 R1 j# d/ q) w! K6 k4 x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% O' X) H, x# I& D. t% S7 i/ N1 D
finding financing.
6 U$ _, X! u0 C, W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: e" e5 Q) s* n9 a% zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ Y2 R. w7 f3 G! w5 i Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 F% W1 p, R4 y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- j" [* x" Y4 }. z* P
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& N9 I( w* x6 ~8 dbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! U( E' n" r! a! F8 O" [2 J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& ~, h, R: H! S) e+ C6 j' v
today.
% Z) x  u' K0 i/ R& X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, p) _+ o0 p4 E: W# W* L$ O/ m: O3 Memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: w6 ^' P' |' }( W0 Z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for( K) z% \+ h; V7 y. h' T. l
the Greek default.
' |: H( g# i+ c  |+ \7 N As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 C6 q/ B% v9 ~6 O6 Z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& C* q: ]) ]" ~7 I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' J0 U2 {5 T$ r" @debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; I7 B2 i7 W+ {- M' {: _
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 B+ @4 S: E1 z4 V
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' F/ \) @7 b. y0 b$ a4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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: W* Y- C% C0 S& r# A! k" M0 ]$ W6 `Beyond Greece
7 {% O  |4 N6 A7 t. n0 `  H( P' v2 ^ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% f; ]5 z: |9 \9 `but that was before Italy.3 _1 q5 E: A: W8 s& l
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 Q, h) }$ [  c; [$ r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: V/ y9 B% }+ [5 f0 PItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 n  H* k$ U. D/ p5 U
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Conclusion
) Z, c0 a% {- r' [% _* K5 U# t We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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