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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; X4 R% K9 a: p+ D3 _8 a, a

  v: O6 [8 E( B( {) u/ EMarket Commentary+ b, U/ g+ u4 ]! s5 C
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- I& u4 y! W/ F/ \8 K+ H: ~; \% HJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. m; \: K5 e: f- C' J3 I7 U* ?6 rSignature Global Advisors
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: X$ o3 p- M" Q) O# y4 x4 C$ W6 [4 v8 \% o1 G
Background remarks! r8 `* x3 r! n9 K; w' W3 U! r
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. i9 S6 M  @8 `* x% }2 eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 M' k/ k$ ]% P8 r8 V Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 u3 Q+ d3 Z4 I) d7 c/ B- \adjustments.
: a2 W' r/ j  |7 m  T5 N This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 H* |0 R; J8 N8 j% R3 Lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) m' \5 ?' a3 c
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; ~5 e% o* E: L& [4 e1 }  Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners." D5 f  S$ C: V5 p" f
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  l/ V- ]* z0 Z. k$ G" Q- vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. f3 b3 `  m/ j1 Z( J+ F. d: Y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. f) y' d; c  G0 R8 k3 G+ q8 j
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. ]( U: @& j' w, J$ x, u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ w' G* [$ H3 R5 q/ |: E
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 q6 p6 L9 D2 {4 ureduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; a5 t* n. w9 g4 d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  M" O5 s9 A' o9 f, A# d# Z9 s& kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ N0 Z& v  C8 v) u# Zimpose liquidation values.9 y" C0 X: {$ d5 j- J' B, S& T
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& U' Z0 i6 i2 n) }5 x( zAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& }9 g1 ^6 ~6 ?- Y4 N7 c6 J
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 [7 C: P( E. j$ @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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4 }: b3 j+ V! e5 h; ^A look at credit markets
8 c' v) d5 S* l4 V: M; G9 ^4 Z: W Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 r- T. I$ W$ _7 k1 N9 Y# z+ {  dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 O# o( P4 ~9 u5 ]3 [- B% j
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) J3 D, I- ?0 Q1 C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 `$ D- X: x) t; ]1 |! X8 A- A
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# ?7 K5 ?4 f% S& H1 K/ ^7 laccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' S+ r1 V( K  v9 @2 w1 T& BCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 B& n  c$ R8 `( D( Gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield." W8 k' D4 e4 K  f, T
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( c# \5 k( w; E7 M
finding financing.1 `& ^2 f  ^. h$ A3 C$ h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 H7 |' h! Y7 ?6 M+ \were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ R) F+ m/ U6 T. Y0 y. U/ v/ _4 [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 w7 S! f+ M% I) {+ Yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 ?& ^+ v+ u7 T6 x% V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 i2 m; B2 B: ~" T+ w
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% T* d8 M* x9 Z2 H/ A+ L
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! C3 P% r. y, v$ c; x3 f  }+ ]today.
. N6 ~# o* R7 U2 w$ M3 o, c8 h4 h Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; \" p* o. Z" d4 B/ e* l2 ?
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 p# R2 B7 l. O  D; z; Y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 @4 b/ F  ]5 Y7 ~1 ]% \# Y+ dthe Greek default.
( y9 R6 R. L$ m: R0 Q5 o/ O& v As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:# {* D& A& @1 [/ R; i+ y
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ m7 J8 Q7 j, Z
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
( F7 g6 ?/ U& q+ f' ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals." p* L, s4 P1 ~# o) l
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( p% L) Z9 W1 f* P9 M- Z! y" Y6 g, u2 Ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' l( j1 M0 H0 u/ p* {( P
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." ^& t7 Y2 a' _" o* N' u6 D
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Beyond Greece) p# n1 k- |9 B# K) N2 z6 _
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- F. y; \6 I6 x4 Y" f, f6 |
but that was before Italy.% o+ K# J+ {5 A! z, Q; D" k
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# v( I, U& l2 K5 w  O% {* X1 h+ M* M It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" P8 S$ ]$ g: ]8 j+ Y) y3 a- v- fItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
- [" Y3 _1 Z) }& i8 ~8 O) O9 a* c' r9 K' k; r) c9 E0 P
Conclusion
3 N% Q3 D3 p2 U, n9 ? We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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