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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
- l* Z! `# _3 {& A; j) v  l! I: J7 T! EEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 k8 c- x# }. c% {4 `
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* Z, S8 w/ z  m. m5 w) c4 v7 E* T" z
Signature Global Advisors/ X/ I7 e4 U5 J9 }, }) `9 y
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+ H. T5 |1 c* v5 _Background remarks7 O; R' x+ q) e7 [* ^$ G" E- e
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ H8 V4 x! b8 _2 s% z  {3 y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ B* M  O4 s  ]$ q& G- z( a
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ G( s# N; S! k" x) O
adjustments./ m/ j9 I( T$ B8 q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: Z! I0 y6 `" t2 B  u
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 y/ L( V8 ~$ b% w3 H0 r Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 d  N$ V0 d0 j6 I' U7 D
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& `. n  [6 ]) @9 z/ s1 W/ a
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# ]6 r  M. C0 q/ `( i, d( h+ hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." B# u- t8 [# @! `
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" @7 _8 Y  k3 `
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" p2 T7 D- U- c% [ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: Q6 H. ^/ Z& `0 b. U+ n
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 _+ ^: m# u! h* ?$ H8 Y- j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' }' b1 ^) o6 S2 `+ A The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: b, Z9 [7 b' @! z5 R2 n; L7 C( }as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ f0 p8 O' `8 e. ?$ b' H. ximpose liquidation values.
# a0 l& B7 h" X9 u In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, ^7 q1 |0 G* w7 Z; |
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 v& {' j" h0 K) h5 H5 ]) Y' r. i. V
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 V3 q7 v9 e* J( @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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# S% u. }( C9 c! [( W) \, a. bA look at credit markets
9 A' I! Y; N# _( V+ O Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 K: _3 s% ]7 V  R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ K# ?' k" ?2 E) x2 {. [3 W
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 ~6 j2 c. Y- e2 l& O. s& |! L! t
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) F8 K2 y, u6 V$ j5 Q3 ]2 Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 p! _( s. P0 B( K0 `; n8 S% Qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ `- H! U: b3 p0 u2 g2 M) P( xCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( f3 P# W# t& P+ O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., \3 Q/ G7 d# U- w5 s& U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# d' }/ x% g% }. o- U7 c& jfinding financing.+ S) n5 W$ |9 \, P  P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; g$ y3 `# y) T! }" A
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 ^/ }8 x0 S* _
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, v$ p: [, m6 L$ cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 ~) j0 i& R8 f
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- t9 a$ p+ u2 ?6 xbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." A/ i+ E& w0 t5 D3 o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% A8 {% d, w9 c' S( Ytoday.
* J. H6 t3 O% I  P: P! m Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 w( o& ~# X5 K7 e! q/ g4 |: Yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 m: e0 [$ ^: L) S: s Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* f2 v8 X. d6 j& A/ V
the Greek default.
" R) F* @( u! O As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) `( V, D1 K# |7 @1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ L0 {' `- Q% ~8 D
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 t0 L. f. i/ l. r5 m0 @
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ x$ {( ~& w% L4 t: R* F, W' Y
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 P+ G* M! F3 X! P2 m/ [1 H
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" k) [+ E2 M. L9 |4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece  B  z; L- r0 o# S
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 o# D( x& l6 w7 x: H# [9 y" ybut that was before Italy.
$ T  W' `% g& e It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 A; ~& r9 _1 O  c0 O3 P
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 b: c* C* ^4 ]+ L3 u) H
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion  A6 R1 L7 x1 t2 K: R
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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