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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 X( }* }! |  {& c0 u) OMarket Commentary
8 ^! _0 t8 R! L1 l' z: wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( }& I& ?+ _# z5 Q! d
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) `9 H* ~7 M7 N) k- Q9 d# ]0 h# VSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
2 C; V6 v) C) c$ E1 s# I Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" h6 E( M& `1 J# o* Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 `6 X3 K8 x) l9 R5 ? Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- M( P/ i0 |( j0 H1 Iadjustments." |# E# }+ l8 t9 _( r) c4 O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  a% {5 M! j) U0 }, isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. L' B  r" i! o/ N* ~8 i Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 `4 I: u/ k3 X7 w& c9 R( Xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& k& o  t2 e% B) B7 [$ H" c9 P. d We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( r" Q3 B) h/ j. Zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( c+ O% V4 {: }3 V3 X7 O- _ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 n5 G: w. l5 `) O
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 O. L% M# p) T. h! [/ G Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& w6 F; R# `  z8 n: a
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: F% J0 ~5 h) Z$ @. {% _
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 V/ r/ B1 p8 r: f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 Q; |" @; s0 A! J3 i% |5 `as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 e7 P/ Q0 \1 O+ }2 k- ^+ e
impose liquidation values.6 Y; X7 v6 k" c
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In: x. T" m. {6 G+ M- O5 W4 z. c( d+ }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ j. I# W- [7 A8 h% _; t
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 W0 Q  {3 S* H1 U. R/ q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 C' c. L! W0 S

6 U' h. k7 A# s4 V- m- _; UA look at credit markets
; s, S2 g* v% h) S. [5 S+ e Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 S" V; G9 d2 u) ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ K0 G# {' i( f) i' N
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%  y6 j# D# n. B$ K$ [- z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# p. g- t5 N5 C' I9 k" g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 u* j/ J- e. |8 b+ [
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- B, s7 ~% m) [/ N+ h+ i
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 l8 g" C3 P% ?5 _6 U" C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% J! |* b/ S$ m, W& w9 F% B Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) J9 [: f: x4 @/ n7 I, C0 `finding financing.6 _  u  D0 x" _5 |+ b
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 t& A5 O) I1 E1 Q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. w. H3 W! l' r. j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- Z- h1 S3 j6 x+ a, I7 |  Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 f  V/ k1 G3 k' kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 l! z& C' f/ ]7 m% b, F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ `7 @) R; }8 M. s: z0 @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% }! ~4 U* B3 a* O5 ?( o
today.
7 [  N1 {9 d. Q8 u- f' I' m/ L Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( X  x$ L4 p0 |; l0 ]" J# K; Iemerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 {1 B/ d+ c- i1 f& ?$ E3 J) A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: J. E" L5 ~7 a  K+ n" r
the Greek default.* z$ v2 \# S2 s7 v8 K" i: b
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' c$ s0 T" P' O5 L+ L; \1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. K- S8 k' Q, b: F( K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  T; y  P; [& q) m; U. B/ q9 Q* Mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# I+ o* u* Z8 J& w( G
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" ^+ R! n/ H2 F- @5 J. jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 }( m3 i% o  N1 n1 W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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. v# s% {( t. Y! w( H+ G) ]* xBeyond Greece$ ]% V  ?* D: }; D$ D- Y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; H+ r: i% c) L; ?
but that was before Italy.
8 P# r. _* `6 y+ j; V! l8 T It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 l0 s1 ]2 n0 \: f5 | It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; V4 D8 k' d' }8 m. V
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
; K4 z* [) O% B- c We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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