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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" U! r5 l$ P- H7 S+ R5 ]
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Market Commentary4 o- u& f, X* C" u0 O, J
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: n/ E5 b0 f5 ~
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 ^7 t* S5 P" H, Q1 l5 LSignature Global Advisors2 L4 Z9 i% R6 \. M. J  T

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/ X1 I6 E( |' y# A6 QBackground remarks$ [7 S3 P, G" \6 E
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# q; C& v% d* U9 m0 Gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- W; r4 {* U$ B; m Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% _2 P8 R# |2 F# K* aadjustments.& m' P( m4 u( ~" j! p
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ T  l, D2 c2 v1 j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  m  c) v1 g) [& R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: S( h0 G) y4 q0 w9 h0 k, T% T( elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 ]% O# U# C, Q9 r
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these- l# w+ x1 l; G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! W  _; ~; X$ W; v7 Z9 }% {
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 |3 M5 R9 W7 h, C8 v! mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- h0 e: `% W% _
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( F. ?! Z9 q' G3 h0 H! ?! Y; C; @
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 q( P+ d, d! y- D- s7 ^. Vreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 t9 Y9 @: z8 z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& S0 m+ U# h% y9 |+ @& [as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 {( a3 B" C3 `6 q, J2 C
impose liquidation values.# R/ c- n& }% C) w5 v( Y6 c! U4 `
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 E& @8 ]8 T$ U2 I" ?, A$ _# [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 I( D0 C0 Z$ v# B8 m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, t. Y. Q0 f4 |& Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 b+ e$ c% t6 K. S+ t8 I
4 N3 v: X8 z% N! K1 t1 I
A look at credit markets$ V, _* D' a; v# R
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 }" v" ]8 ^& O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 H7 S! w1 }, r3 R High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 i1 O- K" j- m( l* E1 ^* F
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 \* \2 A5 L+ V  R& B; tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 g; M! _: [  O8 s* E" K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ a9 n, }4 {) }* v$ `7 X$ J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 z7 J; |1 N2 V' V4 W6 ~, d& V( wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 L7 ?0 r" w4 ~; O  c, ^7 g
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! ^% D; v) G& s, R
finding financing.7 a! e: L2 M5 x& B, f: y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 V* B* U5 {- n: y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 x8 K3 i" V. T
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 F. v: {3 _( h9 A* k9 Eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% |. |! I& {" Y& |5 w& ?going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 ?8 q" |3 T! k5 Z9 U8 mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 i  Q0 V2 r8 [ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% G* L5 I( \% q6 ^8 xtoday./ N4 p3 y+ k" K
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" j- j% v, D0 Memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 D7 i% R9 V8 ~( Y: J9 K6 V  ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. s  y- |: Z! b# Uthe Greek default.
. S* \, m6 J& {8 h& d, C0 u As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& W9 \* E' V* _, k9 ]
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ _+ h' _) t, O. J5 k% O& d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  ], n; k* T3 u
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 k; \' K; v( U1 V- X# H) j7 c$ J3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, X! o* ~1 G- K+ d" u% ?banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 P3 l2 v0 Z8 _+ y9 D7 ~/ k7 I$ g% W
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece) e, }1 c9 e9 @. i5 {# n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; w% y( a/ e. v5 h8 M
but that was before Italy.* [0 P" }2 N1 `2 n: Y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ N' M- _  s, v; }0 c
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, c6 W9 D3 H/ {5 h$ o4 q7 L, L, m% qItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.) s3 h3 W  c, \

4 u- C  M% u% S+ wConclusion
' m$ R  `+ t- x, A9 u( \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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