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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& K3 `9 p  L" P/ R9 V5 r- V

- m7 v. L' ^9 i" l( c( MMarket Commentary' C7 P; c* t$ g9 s
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 e% w  S" r: f/ A$ `  H$ @
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: J" q: ]/ @, `
Signature Global Advisors9 N( g/ y( K. D! ]$ G$ }
5 t6 P/ {* F% Y# `
. u9 ]- t( d3 x0 L* S$ w7 p3 Y) r
Background remarks9 n1 f6 F$ O9 r& E) R! e  b, q
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! [, d! f0 w2 H1 p" V) ]* N
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; k/ T6 ?4 n0 A4 w1 } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( l( V1 }+ d9 ?6 sadjustments.
" d) f' E& J* j/ m) K This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& J6 V( \% y) F) ~" n
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 c* r' G* o4 |6 C$ M# Q9 X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 P- ~6 v  I) m
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.3 E- y- t* b' y6 z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 M" ^$ n2 T. T  o: p
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 N: b5 w) N: T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ I; I. l" A5 N0 t- J- K
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 y) y1 s( c6 C, x3 z! ?) f% S
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 A. b  _/ T) W) O& V
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ n6 o, y9 P1 H4 x
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' N6 c; `9 |+ S. |, E% ]( c The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) k9 Q- W6 ^4 e/ V8 Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ a" j# e0 W+ H# Y7 O: Qimpose liquidation values.$ r2 X. p) |" p# Q  g7 V) A3 S) j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% S) l" P; b" h; ~, F9 qAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- q$ O' K8 Y% u6 f0 a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* q' d+ Y9 F* z! s$ f' jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: `1 F0 }- M0 X# T: M
$ @6 O+ b8 E- @8 |1 y/ I
A look at credit markets
) O5 \6 `9 }* I0 `, T Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 w0 n' S# c2 e2 \  G8 S* F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' c% D3 s0 H% l" n( ^+ R High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; Z. c: s# }1 F* Uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( \3 w. @5 ~7 L% _. a. pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- A6 [+ ?8 `; `' r" l9 T8 }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; S; t* E8 c9 N8 Z) }! {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; A! c1 C( b4 _
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 }* a3 v' `/ _. W* r
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, b% W2 Z3 U: S9 Yfinding financing.
. v3 D  G/ d2 {0 H* l& m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 {6 D; H6 _, V& ?9 X7 H" [were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 Z- n9 T2 j$ ?, B" A' o& ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' ^; I6 Y8 x0 u1 L) [" O" k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! {" r: o7 O8 d* Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ O' T! A4 w+ M5 S! g
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 @% y% _+ l. m( x1 n# t" A1 x" R
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! ^$ G, N/ S+ Y+ l
today.' q- j# l, `0 a# d3 J
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 I% F- h4 @7 t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda" Q* t9 A& v1 B, ]6 h1 `; v
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* u+ [, q. m0 \, N5 w, ithe Greek default.
" ?  d2 U9 S6 X- {! ~- p As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  J( x- I8 |4 W* ~1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default6 j! W8 S2 k% l( ?& U( v  l
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  f; E% W, l/ e# d$ Idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, d' Q! r/ T9 h0 P/ R( N- P3 n& X1 {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing& ~3 I; [# K6 V/ S4 f8 [
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 H2 P% P7 ~  ^. b
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
5 v: \- G, H5 \
( Z8 Y/ @- I# {# u3 L* U% ^Beyond Greece
" m* |: y3 x1 v  i' k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  J  P& k" A" r9 G1 D0 p
but that was before Italy.& J  ^3 b: T' U- c; Q) o
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# Q0 S1 a% R9 r( l- T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ R% i; ]# |8 S: g3 s1 Y4 E+ yItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.1 C, u+ V/ ~: D5 I. l7 E
; D: @3 r1 n" A( [, h- T0 n
Conclusion
7 U' G. G" ?' T) M$ } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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