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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 a( j0 _' w* ~- U

' }. }/ x, V4 u* {, gMarket Commentary, u0 ]8 y: l1 l/ B! L1 z  A
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ t- t% D$ L8 J$ bJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 M# w' W  I$ \! A9 y
Signature Global Advisors
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8 ?6 T- @# f3 o2 G, F2 d* C# N
Background remarks2 H; t  L( M% `3 c
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 H) \- I1 t) Vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. y' l+ G% H- x
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. H7 Q' w& {7 p- k
adjustments.9 L! D2 L8 @5 g- q# u
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ P1 Y3 W5 z. r, v: ~" X
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' B; u& J0 U# R- E5 Q  r: [( M
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 M1 O+ b9 ~0 `3 \) ]. Z: Q5 y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) `2 u0 R8 _6 }( {/ D
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 W9 B& ~4 O. p3 I# a7 d, r) h  T
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* x+ v5 _$ d$ J& P" G Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 A# B1 q9 r# Q6 j+ G: e6 N  V
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.# \8 N; l8 x- Z# l: ]6 e: U: t
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( U1 K' S! g9 H Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 C- L  n( `4 k& U6 c1 Sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 C) r+ v' I$ g$ Z. a# p
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ y  H. }+ z) z! B# G5 Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( c' {3 g% j  Y# Cimpose liquidation values.
# {8 Z- z, r& ] In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 r6 X2 }, B9 G
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ R3 L; m1 O) ^
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; o2 A7 g% ]  P' `/ p  u! zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 l$ G, e. ^8 ~/ Z) U
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A look at credit markets  d/ ]) Y. f; N. E  E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- _) @1 V5 H. y1 \( q  J
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 \( h2 G" |+ K* e7 q: K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# V) [- E. b- Dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 z2 X/ b( p) k' hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: T$ t/ K4 `: s* t0 ?" p: G( x8 iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 f4 c" c. Q! s# l6 L9 ICCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, c# H4 W/ Y9 B7 v7 ]
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 P$ i  ~) E2 {/ P5 T4 r6 z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( Q6 j9 ^3 q$ r2 |# P& n
finding financing.- n! S4 E2 s; B" i" C8 l$ F1 l
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ ?+ A8 A6 J5 _) T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% w& f8 G" }# R2 T; o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* n0 N, x' L6 j2 B7 @. M$ h" D
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! Q: e3 ]: Q5 G* H/ `# s9 E. Agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 |* I1 |8 _, E* ?7 [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 m% U& Q9 g: x1 E# W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 e  T8 Q) D. D
today.' R! Q% G$ L4 k0 Y% U6 S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( R$ V/ Q9 A- M' gemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 y' ~, |' [6 M1 l1 g Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 p! d8 f2 X' s+ }5 u' t! g: tthe Greek default.& F4 R# S7 I, a: q; f( p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 ~6 A5 @+ b4 G+ v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" i- w: w6 o; g' T! a
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& u& c( w8 G" q8 J* l7 N8 Ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 f. ^: q0 j9 o
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 A. g/ S7 Q, Cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years4 y1 b" V4 k2 U- m% P' }: U8 V
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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, z( j; b& f3 d9 S& HBeyond Greece
$ s- _. i; Z+ }; K6 t  f The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),( i: z5 y5 T6 e7 G
but that was before Italy.
# R, G7 Y4 [- [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.8 Z2 [% q& J: Q1 N; I
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- p) d6 f3 H) U- }/ M
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion* w, y; Y0 L2 Q8 ?
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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