 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation4 I% c0 x: }9 ?9 n" t! o3 l: A. z: }
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% f! h; h" @$ k! E" }8 v% {2 U0 T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ ~+ d* i4 R- e1 A% z9 P6 s; T8 \: c
impose liquidation values.
( ~; y. B g C. |* K In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" }/ S. V+ m: R# j- B' zAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ j- a$ i u* B$ k The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 h- p. u/ J8 x- _' kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets. H. y, a1 ]$ _; Z
+ t1 f2 y9 u8 \! ZA look at credit markets. O7 b: `. D/ }) D5 h3 a2 R
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ P0 h% a* B0 {' c! N1 e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& k+ t' y" |; U: G4 z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ m |( y4 D7 k3 c3 t: j9 y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. R, U/ T8 u3 y( I8 ]3 @
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& ^' w. r% O1 \: _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# i( ?# n! b8 R- j' D0 B' }CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- d5 x- e4 C" n$ w9 T. r5 U" ?2 ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ q/ u# m, Y8 V q9 b$ s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 K$ E( l& m* f1 [8 C+ v) dfinding financing.
& U6 |0 u& M( T) A# | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. _1 x B1 ~" w) G( Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 J) a) R0 N9 z! B# } Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. H' x( w. {" o5 G+ w+ b8 a! P1 Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( a( F$ k) l) Y% Jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 S* |; D6 [2 t% j% d
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. p( }+ x2 k7 D. W# b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 m; z: E9 ~; u. a
today.7 B7 v7 l2 p5 Z5 f$ }- ^7 ]
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. V' a( p6 b) gemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|