埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2609|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# n" F& j% }0 H: |- R* L

- O5 C6 R8 C+ q' @9 `* x  ZMarket Commentary
8 u1 f$ K! P" u% Z$ O4 YEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) G6 w, r' U. \% g$ Y6 a+ lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 }* H& t( @2 Y+ R+ K' {Signature Global Advisors' d* M7 J' _* Z$ O4 u
# g' M4 D  q" ?& f. L
0 a+ j9 c; o* P% ?8 b8 I
Background remarks2 }% d. Q8 F' `2 H1 ?# b5 f
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- F! r1 I) A* s3 m; L
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* [, \0 t$ ^* W9 t/ j: w3 g
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 F. f5 v3 ?) O. q( |( i4 X# aadjustments.
) g; [. M6 o( N This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: D1 p' {  E/ g# P2 s+ C: f& I
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 A1 s4 \; l8 m* L( F
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* T! n2 I/ H& @/ r' Dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners." P+ `) m8 J" G; W# ~& Z; d2 c  G
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* `* P0 N0 I) k  z7 oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
2 y% H4 N/ R* m0 l5 T3 @6 u Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ A' D7 S' J. y% x0 q( B* a! a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; [% C( M2 c% z. J
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- f+ T) i9 I0 p- m# X' s
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, |' D/ E; a0 g0 S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 D- w* e6 n0 V$ l( K/ d/ {, [$ x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% E4 L* W3 s3 D- c( h& ?as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( |" r7 i- Q7 A6 m
impose liquidation values.
" [( r5 }4 m$ h6 G" [! G* ] In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# }8 i, S$ T- C6 f0 S$ t4 ?August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 K: H; n- l$ V5 W" q: {9 q; I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; u# r% u* B2 h6 T3 @- A+ xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* {- D5 H% w4 x# A
% ]' m: K8 r! {. r
A look at credit markets: A6 J* ^5 j3 x& X4 B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 v4 W7 C- l2 }6 c! g) x& V# u9 P. \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.3 _: L! V; b1 A/ @
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ R8 p5 {. v; ]( U0 }
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& f+ ], T: R$ `$ Z5 _* t8 \billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 @( D) ?0 b8 M! L8 T, x. M
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& G" Y2 O- j) m$ P" p- ]% N: T% ?4 W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 r1 q) t3 P7 c1 E- o
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( ~* O! {2 b2 V0 u) C! C
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 M; j3 Z7 g8 |2 {finding financing.
9 ?6 ?9 K/ f2 D4 T! k! M& A8 r Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 G+ X' R* n0 I% J- @' |
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 Z+ ~/ k' J2 S) Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! N! F9 l" z6 r8 x" _
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) f  e9 K  @0 S* Z, ~& C. O* h7 \( w4 Igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" O& v$ K# _) h9 K1 E: y3 [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 I5 J) K- \. U, g& @8 z" h
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; G* b' u* k% R% V3 I
today.$ |1 b% K' M4 m) {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ B7 q6 ?% u' m; y) c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda+ r/ N4 y( G( W4 }4 ]# R
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ k3 w- y% Q& n  ]
the Greek default.$ a6 z% M6 |$ a" Y3 f0 ?4 j
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 ~2 I' A: y+ s8 _' m# u5 y
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: a- @! K. [) c( r2 |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 t: |1 A6 q* c2 udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 G; K% b7 Q% p4 O" Y. a/ }) K5 u# u3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 }2 X7 j- I8 Cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# c/ {4 D& e; M6 c: S
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
; S7 C( z6 k7 w+ K1 }0 M
' c* Z1 @. @( P) l! D7 x) NBeyond Greece
0 J& \" B9 W* _2 H The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ b1 n( R6 n" _  U  C! r3 A% Dbut that was before Italy.
* Y: d" m" {& X# ^! q3 j; Y' l% y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* A4 v  n1 n! m( K It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: ]8 v% F# S& J; I. }/ o
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
$ c( D1 Z0 D# v& {. ~. b6 h+ M# y( E- m
Conclusion' [% S& G' R4 d, M7 H% Z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
理袁律师事务所
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-21 08:07 , Processed in 0.280427 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表