埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2508|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# S( e' ]; L/ c
7 m4 n0 ]/ |/ k! v% a/ U
Market Commentary
8 d* O3 x( J4 \2 a) eEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ Y( W' w% D8 j7 H- q
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. g- ]" j3 _9 h: `
Signature Global Advisors5 x0 X+ Q3 ^. E. q
7 v6 H6 c! J. l9 x1 n2 y2 Q/ f

; H3 k* Q% V& t1 z' o6 b' i1 eBackground remarks
3 q+ H5 Q% H6 v5 d( ^, J Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ u' z# R3 N( x) c+ c0 vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, D$ S% ^# N# B2 m Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' V" T* V. P; Y3 y: {8 c# C/ @. ?% w" \adjustments.% |3 r  v# c1 w, o! ]7 k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) Q. U! |/ g6 A4 y: c
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: _5 w7 M4 d8 M/ t$ _( J% P; r5 d Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
, P2 `7 L, v, @+ u* _! Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 O# O  Q8 }8 s! o" c  t$ W We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- P& i: [* S" C- m! R& b  l( yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 D( U7 K+ D: K! J( F. i! E Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" Q9 t" O9 A* k/ b+ @1 r" Z4 U) `quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
+ t( c( i; j  ]# R! L# H4 n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.4 m" C+ m7 X* `# g5 `- t) P
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ N5 U" ?) ^$ W9 Y* z& h. V0 y2 @0 H: X1 p
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" R& S* K' Z% G" }# a
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 N+ K+ F$ E$ P$ t4 e! [+ _
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' z+ [  ]5 E0 ^
impose liquidation values.
. k1 X2 e8 d6 t0 r9 Y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 g* i- u- d; @4 a$ sAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 R  s) V) y5 p5 o  D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 A/ P9 T3 O% j$ M# ~4 A: `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
" s! e' B' x. G. e3 M+ L5 |2 C. O" A6 m+ {, S0 j. x8 P
A look at credit markets
5 I/ r- n& o3 s1 C$ Z  r, O Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: f1 A% s7 M4 D5 N3 W+ J" n1 z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.: s& Q. n7 Y) o, `8 }7 W# E# ^
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! B( J) I0 u5 t' i( E& M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) L" N0 r, [2 B% jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: ]0 L, _1 [+ B& ?; i' D4 [- j
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 E1 m) m. j( ?1 R
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% y, ~2 M( F. U+ @) epositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 j7 Y, g* a* t5 W4 K) Y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: d% a& K' x0 z. h0 p7 r  G
finding financing.: r/ J# b' K6 l
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  A! D0 [" ?: X; P' jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( {; U7 H& R1 z) ^5 h! f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- K4 Y5 y% P3 Q: p8 V3 W8 Vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; ~, }- I. F) k8 n( egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. n3 N3 {# B/ g2 W- k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 Q9 [* N+ N+ I) \ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 p2 x: K9 c. Itoday.
6 O5 H8 e* B. K& O Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* g: M7 `4 w) D
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 N' s7 Z- O% [6 l' k Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  K  g$ y. ?" O7 }/ b2 B6 k7 p" m' I+ b
the Greek default.! f9 o+ |+ A* v# Z  i* N2 F/ J' ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- O- F( a. t% {: G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  Y  ]  I& m7 ~5 p0 P" o
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ \* ?/ h; Q* X3 B" a$ pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  _5 F- a3 X. x" k# i/ I3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 {- y( N9 ]$ V- L
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" G2 Q7 {" k0 R' ]" E& ^$ W  P, O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
, `# W) n7 Z. x+ b# B6 m4 m
/ Q) T- ?& S5 O1 i/ @; HBeyond Greece: O7 \9 }9 H/ m. _. O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 P+ x6 z0 f9 M! q8 [8 T9 q7 m& z
but that was before Italy.2 N5 S/ `, w( B! u; G- t4 L5 k
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! L" o& ~1 e. l2 A3 s4 t* N9 \
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  A0 k; N% U0 r0 tItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! g* m7 M# k3 k5 {7 v( x% B
5 L& ^, v0 R; J6 i0 P& k
Conclusion
7 R3 ]  P) M; `  d% }1 e% b- c We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-6 13:19 , Processed in 0.173505 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表