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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 B, M3 q4 T6 Y. ^' C
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Market Commentary/ O4 _) Q* H  ~6 k% n) }
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& u2 z$ u3 r( m  {
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" l4 [* l% D: _6 A  ^/ `% d
Signature Global Advisors' a( w9 t! e4 l$ R$ s
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5 J8 t4 I6 Q( }0 B: `7 H& n. i6 sBackground remarks: }$ B  i" {/ C
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are1 q% ^# C/ \8 S+ O# J
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.: E! z6 m- O: A/ \  n, `: `! T
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 Y4 F. c& V0 Vadjustments.
0 B; c% y" c; O/ X* e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 {" h' ?+ S& j) ~% L" e; x1 T  Q& F
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% j' D. `6 o& d: I3 \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( P* M! _5 M6 d4 k' W  nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
0 n% _9 d: S. S4 ], j We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# X0 c  _8 t1 I! s5 jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
4 Q/ k( z! o3 ~! _; p4 C0 }+ l" k Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( T" N, ~0 g/ \: f* o% ^' j0 C
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 ?) J/ z* [% b  h" _3 L0 `
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" S/ u4 J) L7 @! P' Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have+ L$ m' A/ z, ]- p% q8 b
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ l* Y  i8 u4 [  R2 T9 m
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 G: [# `5 W# W9 l3 c" ~. F; x4 U0 ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 f' J+ }' B0 i8 x: j6 ?
impose liquidation values.
9 p6 C! X6 h% r  }6 R5 ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 G# M" ^9 g5 [* V. Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ A  N8 Z; S+ j2 p/ A/ |5 z% a6 l
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, R/ b0 ~; \! q; o' d
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; L6 z9 q; Z! v$ ?A look at credit markets9 ]( Y# V9 o6 I
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- ]+ W5 H# Y: y; d' N2 k1 R. WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  V$ s; K. d7 V5 [- t' P
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 J; g5 k+ k' b% g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% A2 y6 d) K0 A0 L3 J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ \; z( u1 _4 A9 x$ `5 e8 u# I+ _% Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 W$ h* L6 z6 v; I, Y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! m" ?4 I4 {7 h4 E8 ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 M) P' u9 |2 A8 [0 Z0 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  t4 t" F% H9 mfinding financing.7 v4 C+ ^+ E7 T( O% Y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 h- n0 Y) e* K, O1 Y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' R1 M( I7 l8 D4 |; ^2 G4 D* T
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 `5 ^* U0 M4 W  Fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 d. K2 D, L# z; dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, o5 R5 L% z0 k5 t: ^9 k1 S" d- H. i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) y, J. P: s) W6 s- X4 b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ l2 y# w. S/ Qtoday.
& s- B; h0 q. n. K3 a Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 A, K' Q& X* l
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' o: @/ C; Z' z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 J4 k# g5 h( W7 R9 O+ u8 g- K
the Greek default.' a+ m# I; ]& h: E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ [. B! ?8 R4 Q1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, k  V( o& A. o/ O& g* t$ m
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& i2 ^/ Q  r3 `4 ?
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 C) ^3 }  y/ k, E1 V8 O3 w
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 x: e8 ?; I# N
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  v4 u  S. j, O; Q: u4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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. G. u# m7 Z# C) ]7 E/ RBeyond Greece
* ~* T. u- }+ u3 a2 ]8 A, y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- _) @. `9 `3 k5 U
but that was before Italy.# z, r$ A. _- {% j- u
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* Q: C+ K0 S$ ^6 a) Q) c5 T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the' T9 J- E. v: R1 s  W+ h/ E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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$ a; o! w  V" Z- @; C; GConclusion
; ]& H+ N( D$ |$ `4 M- m6 X We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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