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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation8 {, C' `1 Q5 v6 p9 n
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! M" B7 Y, I/ u$ D! H$ X$ t' x
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. I( c8 y' l* q T& G6 E9 N% h
impose liquidation values.( ]8 D t& h- v2 o# G
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; \6 `7 X1 t, Y0 T/ e0 fAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, ^# {# Y5 e5 `: W( j: |! X! V( z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 w9 s6 z n6 @% A9 |% ?# X/ Q/ }6 B( M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 }9 K @: t5 w6 ?: r- h+ [
4 T$ ` v+ `/ N7 b! l' nA look at credit markets, \9 T2 _0 \/ L; p) w4 f/ P
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: Z0 R1 t3 k% h- Z* L; `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ F9 x7 F% v2 B9 @" ?! p0 x" Q5 R; l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: {1 ]! w; F* ?* b7 W" T/ qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 V+ e# f9 G: `% S7 h$ H. S W) _
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. D( Q9 K2 l7 W. G+ o
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- r) ^4 H5 M7 _$ [" k
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) D( B1 S/ u( s) n+ b3 y' p' r
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' S2 Y" U* i5 f: W& |) b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 F/ X* x& f: y4 X, ]4 ~% }" |6 D9 C/ T
finding financing.8 j5 d. E% C# L, ~$ ]3 n# A
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* |0 {7 W6 f7 D8 S! ^% Fwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 D4 @( o/ E6 | Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" G5 n3 M3 S: a5 C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 \! [9 D1 ~/ B) c, z% H- igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 q# x& x0 [5 F+ W8 G$ ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ e6 T2 P) z4 q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- ~& E0 P' f% u( z X+ J" stoday.8 ?, [" S* D6 w! D; s4 b- v3 A
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 L; |% m1 L, S0 l1 |emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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