市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. o9 N3 k9 o# f6 w) G+ {) WSignature Global Advisors


Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 ]" p) V9 b: Y& |9 a2 |5 @* cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ E" i( ^1 |; L% n6 [( f0 K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 n- F! c% N7 lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  z/ E" w$ N; R( Z- A3 }lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. y" L1 h/ J. `9 l Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* B* I2 V, P" {+ n: T, A% [quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
; ?/ e' F! Q) a/ E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 U6 {- k* Y& wimpose liquidation values.
* h) c2 I0 G& V  \/ Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- c7 U* V' s% P6 J% X+ S2 k The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 p( u: ~( Y+ M2 Jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
. T7 \& p6 b, P/ R
3 A0 m! Q0 x6 Z5 e$ _5 wA look at credit markets
/ z" i2 I( `  i8 F% Y6 I Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 K, z; ?; D2 B* ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 z9 I) D4 o: U! tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! A  T! b! ]8 s7 r5 E$ O" v* G* Qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, Q% B  d$ `1 s0 Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 ]" ~4 t5 s: @finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! s( B9 w+ H+ V3 M Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; C6 E( r/ T( u+ c) T0 D3 ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
) Z+ s  A- }+ l* l$ a# U% u( T7 L$ X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 P6 ^: ]  \7 ?$ p% K9 M: Y7 gemerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, T) K% I. m  y- }4 _9 S7 @the Greek default.
& ], ]8 D) F+ {3 a As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. f  ]4 ~$ e- ], w' V$ d8 ]" E% ]1 i2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ \2 e/ p% F) r8 Z( mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 S0 X+ P3 G) n, r% ?) ~& a; b4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

4 _1 b& H7 G/ g! |Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: b* `8 v; l8 W; Sbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" G" u" a1 d7 X1 u  |  x. c* ?! ~ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
1 |/ X: G8 O* W8 \6 j We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan