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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。* t0 Y& |) _2 g! \% R& x% d- R

+ T8 c% O+ n& fMarket Commentary
9 V8 k( @+ r' H) q- D! N5 XEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
2 p; D: W  n' z! H  i4 gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  A* f4 O2 y: M  J+ w3 g; Y& R' i
Signature Global Advisors& d+ e" e4 Y  t, w/ E* _
* C* [3 _( o5 }( E# N& f. e

/ u4 t: O4 q# [- [. k# R1 GBackground remarks
0 r: m* t6 X, A Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& }6 t" b" H& v4 fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 y+ q, b+ T! f" T$ q0 F/ ^  d Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 D7 ?" W0 X$ K4 a% j
adjustments.
( H$ d" ]9 C3 w This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! F# C  @3 O; U  P3 P, @safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% i! C. T, y( s- Y. s Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' C8 c6 p8 U( C$ e, llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 s% s8 k2 f" Q9 r0 c
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; f; S" c0 A- l9 ]8 u/ {9 ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* b, W/ |0 Y* I0 a& ]! {2 M1 _3 D3 K Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: c: i! A4 E. Q# n; iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.% h; s3 j; ]% l3 y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' d) w' W  P/ Y- @9 \9 B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ |) o+ d7 C5 n% S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 ~4 Q! _9 D2 u/ I5 g' M' J  X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( ]" _+ _, u. \- Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% D6 W+ h8 V  n* d, }impose liquidation values.7 i' y+ u; W8 [- I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& W8 i% s! T7 u( S1 }5 J7 hAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" K! S5 ]8 F2 z' k The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 J* A) Y& k, c" f- c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
2 w; a6 W. ~8 Y2 |8 P( L% M/ m( E) P
A look at credit markets
- n( o1 ^  N! c5 B Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 w3 w; E# ?% m9 o& F1 w. PSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( l3 h" J! r0 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) J4 p8 G" r; B8 R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, d5 `' {0 W9 ^: l. H
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( \, h1 A3 }  Z$ R+ W% V5 s* U
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: A# }/ T; }0 B
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ M# c/ c; z0 Q  p4 J
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 v/ t$ q* A" ~
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& C7 ]1 ~3 U  R, ^; Mfinding financing.$ i- n! I6 [8 X/ y* z; g
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: V8 U" w! r& Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' [  @7 J8 O$ ~# N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, r0 {( m+ B2 s4 g; Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' M" Y7 C1 W  \2 [/ s: [+ j. J: C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# ?% j' |, F/ X' W' `  tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 W" M" p# y9 q! f6 @! [; K9 f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 V2 r, x1 O  S9 M0 {' G/ b: Utoday.. N5 Q$ S8 h& j1 F3 m( m+ Z" e* k
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% d. V( Q7 A4 Q: @5 N: ~# [
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 f# T3 i/ ^  ?7 T1 X5 x! B
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 f3 u( {" w0 {. {- ~4 H0 [/ Tthe Greek default.
  W, b7 \7 b8 D3 F9 | As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. z4 d. T0 H  [# c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 `$ ^9 D0 P% L1 j5 b% U$ d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. R' ~2 ^4 R% D1 k8 Udebt stabilization, needs government approvals./ ?  u. g5 {! i* g7 B# k! \0 @
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% t3 B! U( f: K3 _6 O+ M) e
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
/ C0 L1 I( f: n! A, e4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 v/ |: o$ @- ?3 {
9 T9 R/ d, |1 k% y8 R( m6 _& z( k
Beyond Greece
" Z: c4 _6 c& ^2 M/ R2 y( M The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% i# ~6 Z+ P2 u
but that was before Italy.
. {/ P, H6 v4 ~4 N It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 `% z# {0 O+ t5 s
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& i4 i- z7 e+ a; ~, T
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( y; N( n/ ~' T- D; m) G

: U& J& H3 H# o4 t4 M0 Q5 O: h) {Conclusion
) l& ?- O$ k; ` We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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