埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2452|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' s* x, o5 H1 o& m$ b9 E
/ [% T, @) M( Z
Market Commentary( y+ d- `; L8 f# g
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 ^0 s+ @) |0 h
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" I* x7 `, o7 ~: t$ j) y$ ?' SSignature Global Advisors: |2 ^' W5 ]: Q! t5 P8 t5 C
% N4 |& u' ~9 f) t

- \& d. d( x& q- u& D& ZBackground remarks3 j2 W3 W  {% |& s6 u
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ d. J& p  L) B/ M; y7 Q9 O" K
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.' p& p3 Z6 G' U& d" \# [
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ z' K/ U' I( r: madjustments.
% p! I6 _0 K9 R' h  P This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 u1 {$ e' R5 t
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" Y' _( t$ y& y4 B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# d/ t# c1 f1 }, ]3 Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.# P# W2 ?& @9 J$ L* ~9 A+ z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 V3 s; ?: W: I( G4 b! f
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.; R0 H3 h7 r5 U- z* Y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# @4 M4 {: T9 [* Tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! P* \: ^" |5 h! m
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 H9 i. E1 x. [9 H: y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- X3 B. z: p2 m  V1 f( J& Vreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 s6 X# V7 c2 [3 i% N. Y% m4 }" h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ W7 {, n2 O3 r, W! E% ~0 s2 uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# b/ J& f+ C' S+ O! T+ timpose liquidation values.. `! V7 s+ u* {
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( N% g9 C, `2 N8 L! h- @+ ]2 \4 H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. R$ w( _3 E8 t4 r& d4 \2 g9 s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. K# {! Z; \: S( ]6 d/ q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  l1 m( d9 O7 Z+ r' i* Z  Z

( m7 ]1 z! G* O% cA look at credit markets0 f  c6 k! F: g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( L# n. C+ v: h( aSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 I* ~+ w; Y9 l$ K5 h( d& k/ Q) I4 L7 X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, W! u2 A; ^" ~+ mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- A- x* o# A0 V: h) Y8 M1 T0 I+ f
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 v- ?, W5 r- Y" L8 I& k# Waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ q! l% Q- `, n  A2 O
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! f) y; Q% m, p5 g; U0 c' z; Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) W  S/ r# N% g+ ~4 D: {
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% Z" A7 x; Z  O3 mfinding financing.
1 ?6 z# a% z5 e7 h1 o Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) O* @' r# X* q9 _: Dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" Y8 d& w* v  H+ p# A1 i0 n7 E0 X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 o+ n! o' c6 Y; \# E$ [
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# H; G# ]% L/ Z# ]+ Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( z) D6 J- |: a1 O, k& M! g( zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ ~& D! b8 b3 y% t European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 p+ o% @" g' |+ dtoday.- h# L$ F! S# Y& o4 V% w
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% p" }  }) {9 semerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( u0 S0 Y% c6 Y) }) ~ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 }$ a% o6 o+ d! [
the Greek default.
% ]6 w9 E% |7 A As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: {: f& Y- M, J/ W' z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ Q# H7 z. e& w9 b% T) m1 d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% H) t2 x) P" v* y: @$ vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  O) X6 ^: s% b; c) J# S. j3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' S. t9 M9 |; }8 u. @banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 I5 P# a/ c# }0 c+ v& x9 [2 t) G& }, ]4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 S; i9 e$ `! `3 z' D
7 P1 d) P* Q% o5 ]
Beyond Greece
# B+ P1 B. n( S6 f The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  z% I, J- Y. l
but that was before Italy.
! N6 M0 o  q2 s6 O# H0 y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# H) n+ p9 F! a
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 r6 S3 ?4 X$ ^
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
. R" x0 Q  E: [2 M4 q
) D" e: N/ p5 ^8 ]2 K5 y5 B# IConclusion
, z; r, ~0 t+ h We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-31 06:26 , Processed in 0.138208 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表