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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ i. c) O1 E. t! M7 l
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Market Commentary$ m) e3 F5 ^5 E7 w
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! F) ~  |8 [  Q8 h$ _# J1 g
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ z% H' F* `6 j6 Q* L9 J, [# ]Signature Global Advisors
. u4 Q) }* l$ Y' G6 C  r; ], ], y# n6 x

' C& \5 `6 b4 N' n9 HBackground remarks
0 C- c4 J, N, `! b4 A! D( K7 E' Q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, v. h) i8 C( ~1 das much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& b! S' n' V0 i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* h4 h, ^% _) iadjustments.. Z4 O7 {  P, N
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% e' R9 A  k7 Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 d/ z# V3 j& W3 D Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. M! ]) H" t. e3 K2 ^) \* f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 `% ]7 \3 n6 E+ g' W* j0 V
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 h* Y: E/ N) e+ S4 l& z" Xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) f0 f) l; ]6 y5 i+ \* \6 g
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 c) y1 Z4 I! g  `
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 ^% H$ j% J  E+ w6 A Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 {. Y( W0 j  w% O! N Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 O% s- j# W: z2 y* b" @5 x9 a
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' |7 \  j7 o8 V# u+ G( U3 J
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; o; c: h& e/ s, H2 T$ a
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, ]4 D" G9 C  G% R* ~. j5 bimpose liquidation values.$ v% K$ P# X7 q! s: A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" A6 l) v! @% uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' @7 H; k% E3 R1 I- H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 j! v* u3 r& l: fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 `7 M3 A! _1 r) j: ^6 S
, ]* q* v: O9 r+ O- I: _$ e
A look at credit markets5 [' Z5 P4 A2 s* i" @9 D# [! w  f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. D1 a6 I: i3 [9 h( r+ ~- {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( y+ |0 G4 T6 N) ?; b% E" g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%  n5 {3 }1 z; o! ^
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) {! V. o- D. h$ X' N# H
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 t8 [& ~& [% f) R. D, x: faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 i9 h, A! U4 z5 P4 ]CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 j- w+ f: H8 D; }2 O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. v, ]" k. k0 i0 T, `) ~' A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' u& j" ?3 E- J, s; gfinding financing.
) B& h2 r# k2 e( J) r+ g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ F! F* P" f4 V8 r2 h# T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 f0 H' u6 T9 j& Q" K
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. g( Q9 N* [) p& ^. c9 u
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 P5 s1 F% G1 c9 {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( p, G$ c4 K. K0 |9 a4 n: ~bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 x& ~- E6 j# W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 g, O$ j% i( Y$ {
today.
, Q5 b% B& I3 z1 i Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 q$ D( g9 x& ~
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- P2 E3 r% ^: r+ x5 B, a( ?8 L
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 E: `, G) O; @4 W% `7 H  zthe Greek default.
. p( a1 \% c$ S As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 d8 ]$ W& u, v6 l! B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 o+ n% K# C' Z; Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# i7 c9 E  t$ i6 u- i8 N- Wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 E7 l; ]) \/ d' ~
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 b* h/ s' G' K+ {0 X7 Y; o3 ?- C
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! C5 A: R$ D" T8 t' `' s& ~
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
3 ~; q1 ?* ?$ ^. K! b The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 w; `& K6 z. z" F" K3 z* O3 q; T
but that was before Italy.
, ~' o2 }1 z, }6 h4 X# ]* V2 \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ _( L% }, f8 v- m It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 U2 {6 c3 p( t/ z+ v6 N0 \& t
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 a+ ]1 W! u% V
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Conclusion9 N5 R5 w) S5 b2 V5 A: F7 s
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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