 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation% \: L" x; h" }# M% ^% w* N5 O6 w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 p5 ]- h. L4 {, R2 O {3 zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 J' B# q3 a& t8 ^! w% F7 |2 ^
impose liquidation values.% A" V' N& B- Q7 v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# s8 {- [9 U% w" h& U
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 M- K8 X u, H+ x% G H5 t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" O+ t3 U# [4 [
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets. p( M2 h5 }) }3 L4 L8 {
8 |: ?8 o# B7 |. t; U# ~
A look at credit markets- J0 e, M& s; t. |# O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ v% b$ C K2 i7 E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; n& h/ a3 T4 P" n8 p& l: c
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ [8 q3 ?3 `3 p( ]" \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 m% n5 O0 g! P `( \billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. x) v) I f/ i) E5 caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 A5 w) ]8 h) i2 b2 f1 L! n4 a+ e* _
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 T# G/ ^: c; J- Mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; w3 F5 X1 E% T* z8 ^; r8 l# E Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" L9 o! ?; f% Y- D' F0 nfinding financing.* ]6 L$ r% Y: _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ p" i- [ }' S# [% N: x+ y2 Q9 f4 [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: ]6 P3 R! V/ ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 m; E/ l; h5 v7 g$ B: q7 H, n5 x
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( J4 \8 m: t! B6 {- P+ o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& k& m3 k/ C: S3 p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 N- Z; u, r2 U$ t- U6 g4 ~. n" e; G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 b% _/ P1 x! {. j- U& S8 B& rtoday.& ~) A2 L: u9 x5 s1 `% V b- d
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 X2 U- p& y0 G: ~emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|