埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2525|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
. V/ M! w; z1 j9 R% B7 j
( B1 e2 S. b9 u: i, r  T  pMarket Commentary! r! |% ^; P0 |& D1 w
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 S5 A$ p$ F# @# nJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" X+ @3 H% |) g, jSignature Global Advisors! L" J3 s) c, k4 }& D" s/ a& b
3 R7 d, {. g0 R" x2 Q% i( F

  K. f# E3 F: QBackground remarks0 t& b0 l" l" R9 F9 |: {
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 e, q& l6 R  [+ I. _
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 R7 U4 d+ j, E: M; F  L Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 C6 G% }; l( _adjustments.& X! _! X' O" ?0 j
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 U, v! i) C5 r% ]safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ d1 y( ]$ t: V5 Y1 s! r/ J  D) |( ^ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) \* `$ {; x7 q/ Z. olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.3 m( v" z. O; J0 r5 Y- k: _  @  v
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* N  ?$ u2 f" G- I2 N+ uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 r8 d2 \2 t. C3 f8 B# T  q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; O8 N" C  D$ p2 f& b1 x. w( h) }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 ^; h5 s; q; _7 W+ U
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( r$ r- ~' Y1 g/ e: u
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: B. D$ {, @; V7 c; q7 |
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 {! Z$ q8 W2 Y$ O The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( i" R* C9 g7 N# ]# x! |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& ?! c4 F4 ?' T8 t+ n9 yimpose liquidation values.* W+ z8 h2 D8 b- L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 |9 C# o7 P! V8 u- c0 d' y0 SAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# q- \& I7 r% d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ ]; W8 x: U0 t, b6 m/ t3 Pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' q6 y3 W. K6 \. ~7 X- Y( L7 Q" ~: l5 `
A look at credit markets
' B  q: \; _; s. g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- [5 J+ l+ D( z4 k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( X4 n; u& ^) `4 q6 A: i! x' ] High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& t! u" W  w! Q# u/ y+ |' C5 I, p7 ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. O, ^9 n; ~) y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- Y- k9 E- W$ ?  L( l2 ?9 }access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 Y0 {) m( F; E( d9 x
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 n. W# _4 ]( O3 L6 b! S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! T0 W/ c: h* b& r, Q5 Y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 q/ B( Q1 x: c& Rfinding financing.+ [1 @- }! U. R9 G7 o( O! u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 s( L" w6 I4 a, E. b6 jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  x# N! p' {5 }$ f9 X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, d9 N5 B. A3 _6 Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 w9 D4 E+ m# M, h* H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 @' t6 u# v6 ^$ O: A3 gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 ^: e/ T) B, i) k4 i. p: m& t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ ]7 J2 c, b& v& mtoday.
) }6 h: s, b( ~+ b( b1 E Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; n. S9 I* i; {- @8 y( r; ~' y: memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda" B# B* D& m$ J+ N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 }+ W$ X" Q, D2 z8 ^the Greek default.
* }" e7 [! m0 X' W" S As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; Z* s0 q2 M# I- |# }
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! l  }2 j! N7 v: k
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# n  B5 L% `- e+ d% _% Z0 m
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ {, ~* Y* v& O  R
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ Z% N! [8 F3 G) v6 Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' Q9 @. E6 a, N3 c! J" }4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. K& p4 Q! c/ r7 K% Z# m) G- E
) ], y  d7 p0 A2 r9 @" P# e
Beyond Greece
9 ]3 ~; g" @: A; ~/ ~. T% D' W2 n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& V+ W9 Y, D: L' \. Hbut that was before Italy.) B- R$ _& q& u% z$ B$ f9 y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
2 J  \3 V# T7 j* @. h8 ~ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ v3 D1 Z2 ?+ h& v5 b5 d
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% t: S& p+ V1 l; S, L
7 }. R! d, \) k! O8 M/ c' p
Conclusion
; ]3 @4 f! ^/ \6 G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-8 15:07 , Processed in 0.164126 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表