埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2568|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
4 ~9 Q/ U6 j$ s1 h+ |8 A5 ?! D4 K+ [
Market Commentary/ k1 p% z0 N# [" g" K4 L. r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 M5 t: ]9 i- ]# u# BJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% I# @1 n+ s+ mSignature Global Advisors8 {- z2 g$ N% p3 s9 w6 B$ A7 g: R- _
' V2 M5 }' P7 t1 t5 j! X6 N0 T

3 T. p5 W' ]' s3 |& G2 {Background remarks
$ e  ?7 j. t( u* q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! n1 G# n1 b, j" o  X+ Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
1 d% L+ \0 }. u& ^. ]) R5 W  S Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. W# m5 |9 V) w' f" e7 [
adjustments.
. u5 P$ x9 o  x This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social# d. Q5 G5 c  W# T; N' [, p
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. h  A, h8 b, [, s# X* U1 @
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ \/ ~' U- p8 t. ~2 q  k1 Ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
5 H' Q/ u' B; d! W/ g. p8 j; j3 ]5 x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
3 V: j1 A  A5 @adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: h/ O' S  R9 b: Y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) }, m% O2 l! C( U2 T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 Q$ ], G* C- c1 R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 e) j% a1 v$ `7 _8 M7 g2 {" U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: ~/ p' i! U+ c: d: m
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
( ?4 q/ Y+ K- T: E8 U( S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 ~' i1 {. Y% v# C* k, Las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" a( U+ F" g1 P3 Fimpose liquidation values.
* K; G! c) Z5 S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 h4 B- s5 V$ N. r4 k- O, u& FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* J7 I1 G6 w1 R: ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 \. c: M' Y! d3 zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% P* r# X" i  E+ X

3 V% t1 Q; e; ^$ E& rA look at credit markets8 x: {0 K, X0 }7 b2 Z, K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ P) F5 ~. U5 J! R* a1 ]/ DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., v8 c2 G' m1 n+ F; f
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& l/ Y: N" U5 T8 d) n0 e; Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' T' J- c3 Y$ ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( z1 h% V: P4 X1 V! L9 X3 g6 ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& h; W% }. W8 G! p- q) z6 gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 j% Z, K# f! \4 Z# N2 H9 p& X
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ U- S. y7 M6 d2 w( K2 `) y: x" S& ^
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* s- a0 \0 n, @, M& X
finding financing.: q6 f3 W8 W% Q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ I+ g/ U: C+ l, @were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* Q+ O9 x- _8 i4 R: c
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 |7 l# D; N: G5 eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 ], a4 a- H: ]( G1 x8 I
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 a) H7 Y5 m; F- w
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* y8 W/ ~7 u) t# P0 C8 e( I( i
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 k% u/ {# r$ S7 \% {
today.0 M3 j( s  v) g9 K, B, `
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% H; ~- J9 v/ ]5 g; f3 C& yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 c7 V& O+ _- p* x. Y% M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! `7 G+ ]- S8 \, j5 m
the Greek default.
" m; c0 A4 p5 n2 G As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 B# E/ P# ]* y; d1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. V/ r% s. b- c8 }8 [2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* R( u3 K, s; _3 Idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. }* n- B2 h1 }  V5 C& J# c" \% Q3 e3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' b( U: e) d6 n% t5 F
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 c7 I) E" I3 o$ U# N
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. K4 V+ X3 p4 I
1 Z* W4 l. i( q3 R1 s+ a
Beyond Greece
& b+ F% t+ L0 {+ T8 n5 K2 m% { The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& {$ d" E4 p6 _( f1 ]but that was before Italy.8 ]+ d# `# c  z3 r+ _6 W, J
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 U/ i5 P  ^# n* T* O It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  W% I1 f) C0 RItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
3 v  n8 Q3 {/ _3 R
( O) H8 @' V# t) V. U* PConclusion4 n& d  `* Q  F4 j, B9 o( S% X5 _+ G8 Y
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-13 16:54 , Processed in 0.129438 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表