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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 d( _9 b; i: g/ i! }! S2 v+ |1 g/ X
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Market Commentary
& L; I- ]' \6 P, v9 oEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ w  M& x# t' w; }# y4 RJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 L: `+ p% V, k- O  g( S! o! nSignature Global Advisors1 G6 ~6 z" q1 ~9 {. ]; h  A( M
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: Z/ l+ y" {: O/ J6 rBackground remarks& O  E* J1 f: @8 v$ d8 l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  |5 Z% b2 U1 u( ~, N9 u# g0 d
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ n. \/ h, ~$ _6 ]; G" R Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  H, p( Z+ M/ L7 V5 uadjustments.( g) _) b5 u& D; A* z5 ?' _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% C7 i: c( C% @) T4 F' Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 Q0 j3 K3 |9 |+ H# ` Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% c" u8 v$ s; Xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* ^6 _% R2 x! h6 D3 @( {; X8 O
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ R6 k$ [* x) d; ~* Vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." Y6 J1 s2 K6 c  |+ m* Y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 \5 B; Z( R2 R4 R3 ^* g. bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
8 b  I; N3 [* B  X6 o" p  k5 P Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" J' s" d2 A  {' c Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# C/ L. }; a5 N8 ^  Sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& w- G; g& Z8 U  e, i% R! D4 c* W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 E5 z; F0 e% B5 Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- [! f( d) g" T) g% b3 ^
impose liquidation values.& r; ~. ^1 S3 q2 c& B! ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, ?  ~  E% _! c" i& A- ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" x* y0 m4 t0 X7 g& }5 g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, M4 {. [% K3 c; ?" `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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$ G8 W3 D2 y! e# @A look at credit markets
: |5 q" ]& \- N; F+ X Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 j9 m5 Y7 P4 E6 q, |3 z' ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 u" e' v. @" Z& |$ T! n4 L1 h
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 n) E3 y& a) }then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 y( R/ D; c  Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. M7 M3 z( d, _- \  R' {* H
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, N0 Z+ G7 x8 L: [* u4 v: `CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% r' _  `/ m4 c6 Tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. M# v; y# a: a( {) C# l: t" k Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" ~" Z* p. `7 U; U2 U+ T  X
finding financing.* S$ ]" ?: O. e5 h+ h  ^$ @
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% j8 M/ a/ x  V6 a+ @
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.3 x' F: d- Q/ Y; I2 _& u
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 G9 J0 Z- ?7 @1 M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! u" r5 L& g8 X) \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 t/ W0 N# X  |/ G2 {( C3 n3 Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! y3 Q) b! y/ D( }0 M European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: W2 n( k0 Q+ D5 D5 K2 Dtoday.& j0 x3 W# N3 X, Z6 D) \
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# n, r' f: Y: z' X% f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
: n1 ?- ^' ^7 R6 K  {- d" p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! a: e% _/ A1 qthe Greek default.
) N0 Q+ d7 Q( |, ?7 h As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( e- p+ x4 R& u8 J3 k7 H1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" u0 O9 I$ @# \2 \
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign2 V" s/ R' Z2 t: J) _5 D' ?
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  ~  m9 V( V6 I: _1 r6 e  i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' g. d) ]: Y3 z/ O- ubanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. c5 M; C2 V0 c! H4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 n, S( O% C1 u* a, `: V
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Beyond Greece
" O- g! e7 j- G4 M0 A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 d/ ], G, a6 C2 t
but that was before Italy.8 p0 Z5 O9 k" Q7 `5 N
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 N+ k. T6 Z1 W2 T& ^; p It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' H" s1 I. F, _- x; mItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion& ?$ A. m; A& Q4 X5 F
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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