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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' D- B) a: x. m2 A. U

) S7 x% Y% T% l! k* g" pMarket Commentary
0 b2 u- B3 a! {) L8 f$ M% {4 jEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) `  t% Y& s7 ~* i
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# d" R, Q' v. D- u' E; V# I/ P
Signature Global Advisors
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1 }+ J# O$ L/ X) c( A! b, ]
Background remarks
3 v8 b. r( j# N, Z% F# k& X Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 s, G' B; |) E- {7 ]0 J, l5 }4 b  @
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& }9 x4 {- Q: X
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal; S" G1 N3 D. X1 _: C
adjustments.& @; x  s0 r3 V5 [0 g6 X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 K. k  o0 ?1 T9 V5 V6 n
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% i! b- y; f+ g6 t: l
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 E3 ]& [3 w* E5 Xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 k, c! E/ W1 }
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" {3 E7 n6 J4 K  j: L# d9 D" \; t% w
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 Z% a2 ~; _  r: c. ^/ m Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 i$ q  e9 ]8 P+ Uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& t/ n3 X6 g% t7 H$ ]/ e1 B Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# j# j' G1 X1 V4 P- t1 C5 p Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 p+ e* v' N, i" o% C
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 g/ o4 d5 F( s# p1 k* Q" x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 [. M! Q6 F6 f. {2 F, b
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 P% G/ t: ^1 b; D( c. qimpose liquidation values.' ]/ }) H* U/ i% t: V& p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 ]% f6 @3 Z8 N4 [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% u6 S! a" N/ s. |3 `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# U7 ^6 @+ o' {scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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, l4 ]# w+ M, ?) x  r" p2 ~5 e. CA look at credit markets' r: p) j) _+ |9 G) E" Q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* m. ^3 Q  w8 n
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ i, u) T5 y: J( j$ t6 a
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" S* C! Q- R" k! @9 a; X) j' {! wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 H# F1 j3 X6 }! [4 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ Z$ F) Y1 g- v" u4 S: ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: _! a% c9 `8 M! A' I7 vCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 [/ G1 {) Y) M* j  N  u$ k3 G( g
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& F0 W" X; H9 g6 r- S$ Q  M6 }# s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, q4 J% t* i% F0 z  {4 @: a' k1 ]finding financing., h0 z) W. I0 `& T3 I7 C& d* {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) x& G! ^! q. N
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 E9 o4 T& H$ O5 k+ P. ?
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 L7 E1 o" C2 F/ m0 Y% [. S7 u* t& V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 i: X  `( l  K5 m( w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, y3 X4 n* B$ A% Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ D/ M5 Y& t0 b7 r6 I. @. d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 O/ u  \1 V  d2 c( v- Atoday.4 Q7 P' J1 y# e) @. ]" c% }! Z. ^5 Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) H+ o4 l: p' v. e- X/ `# S
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: g8 ^. F+ z9 H: T# P
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; B2 t: X4 S" Ythe Greek default.
& F$ B, \0 L4 r$ s' n& W  T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) o: b" P! V6 S4 O% i
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 `! `# ?. j9 X: p; ]* s2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: u' c1 F) |/ X$ V6 h
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% P3 u% R4 X9 d( H$ i5 u3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! Z5 g" t4 R' [# {4 o# K  @, e# tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& O0 L2 S2 S) H6 c$ X
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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; ^7 F6 J& Q, Y5 r4 q" M. b0 E) ~2 w# pBeyond Greece
$ a# `/ E5 m- G3 ?% q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 c) q- e) ?# [5 u' |# ]
but that was before Italy.% i* }9 c  _! s( l& ~: x2 g, Q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& h: ^: F8 l& \, t& g* B( g8 H
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) j  V0 D. U7 Y/ ?1 q# PItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
6 \2 y& w; F! g. b6 z' q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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