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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! ~& w1 {7 h8 G/ g

) ]: d6 w: a/ [' w" ?+ P- \) NMarket Commentary  k" e% B1 a8 \1 c( c( u
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, L8 \& a# R% F8 k
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 |4 G+ v7 E- X3 K( G' |
Signature Global Advisors
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" ^! V8 m$ q  \& Z& Q
4 c" b4 {9 |1 }; NBackground remarks+ y2 ^7 s4 F5 J' k
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 Z( \2 K2 T' |) T, Y7 Las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.1 s6 C; m! q; |# o
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# |- E$ T$ W& L+ l/ r! wadjustments.; k- D$ X3 T, ]8 X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 J+ U) i  D8 E" P; d8 S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# x  [! ~8 o/ c4 ]2 h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 p. ?& o# y) C
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 e9 Q. E* o2 {9 h: U* G
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ Y( b* A( K% ]$ n# O1 jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: Y7 D: x3 Z1 k5 L0 N  M# j# e7 Z' m
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% D. x6 X/ z# f1 X) ?! u7 q9 a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- z. l" O& O2 V( Z2 R
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 C" a! V$ p- _
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ g/ ?5 [. d; f
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% B6 o5 N/ N0 m! o, y; w/ i The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: E  K8 E4 Q% v  O2 L* e/ T4 Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  ~" Y. V, Y# M( Q4 r' D6 T, H% x
impose liquidation values.
$ E% L$ Q7 T/ W7 B& [% q+ N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" {3 w& x- P; v, Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 i# K% t2 D3 |3 y* R& Q6 a; C: H The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 H( x  z, H2 H, \- X% T3 q- U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% s! j! {3 W5 Q  b9 P/ h6 e& Q

5 {+ G7 f' h+ F) F+ s% O: d4 U& vA look at credit markets6 O: P" [+ [# D  |) u6 f) v! V
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: h0 K: J3 t6 V- g7 B% k1 P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 M6 z7 Y' z, }* v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- A. _9 l1 Z  T. h7 \- A7 ?4 K
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! X  K! j, R9 q& X
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 Q0 ~! `6 v- r9 Jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# ^# r+ d# B& ~3 r
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 l( j- @& z" Npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ [6 `+ t) L; _, z' ~# {" y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, E" c* j6 j, ?. |! s- u
finding financing.9 L. H; C# E- |1 y/ M1 l# P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: z' \! L$ z6 m: M; u
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 K" {* |* a: g- n+ F Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( _& R& q" R, T3 [5 C* N' \; ^3 ?is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" m1 J  O" W7 z0 g) Y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! C) s+ l/ X# V" r3 k. z( X' o
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 I2 H1 w9 f, W0 @. A. W European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 Z* q+ H& |+ Y& g: ftoday.
/ Y- P: k8 H; H0 f! Y, S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( F( D* R+ `  c# M+ T3 Xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 S: X3 C# [0 A
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 B% g" }! W5 H! V; C2 uthe Greek default.% B% c, S. x+ N( J  C: |9 K
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  ^( _$ t9 t- l1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. c: k, m3 t$ }3 y$ E) S( Q; R" ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 \2 W% w" v0 `! u8 }- M9 H4 f
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.. d6 \  n0 V5 t3 O( \: _
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' P3 t/ Y; [* Y0 O1 s% W+ ^banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 x+ Q$ |/ ~# x* U' s1 S4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# z% S! F, \! S, W1 M9 X3 B
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Beyond Greece
4 X% V! q! C8 A  _, [5 w The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 q$ B2 J$ i2 x: e
but that was before Italy.
' R6 b6 [( P) Q6 E5 F& C+ T It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
2 g: W+ @. H# n+ i) Q" P% t It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ c; H0 K8 B/ d8 h
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  n& g4 b& X' k  a" P* h" s3 x
, ~+ o" R  c3 O, i
Conclusion
: T" c/ `/ C; q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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