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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
3 \6 g- ~1 U" Z; ^- _8 f
- B/ Y6 O5 r; `) u8 oMarket Commentary6 }4 }5 A% s/ k: X' L+ Z0 {
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% ~$ B& ]9 j* Q# [James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 c* i# k! u- g
Signature Global Advisors: h) |' n' m, a) r1 w* H: B/ V
7 d: B' I! C% d

3 ~2 M& |5 h! ]& eBackground remarks! t, I8 z) u7 p. f" p) h
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 ?( X! z2 f% }9 Q9 p! z9 was much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# q2 \9 q- {* q0 u. y  r/ o- w& v Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, {, J0 v5 h9 M2 fadjustments.+ }( K! p' j  C  Q# N
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- y% k' T7 c0 s) h, ^8 O
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 {0 Z& t$ q" F% U  z" {( a
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* v" t! l" C! e6 d* m6 ^1 k
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& E- `2 d; U9 L# a We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 f- a6 ]* K4 R( ^; l% r
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- b; F' v0 I( c  J
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 D% Y- K4 j0 k3 i: j) L
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
/ b- Z, f. }5 s1 Z" Z5 d Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' P9 T. h1 M8 x& E7 \. L1 O
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* N: w1 H% L+ d5 Q% n
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation% _! w2 [2 a7 M: ~
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' K6 j4 S: i9 ]* s6 y! Fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. f3 V% K! N( b) u/ @) g5 f0 A! Nimpose liquidation values.6 ~  m( s: U3 s* e/ Z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ i6 m0 O1 `9 aAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: |; I: Z  |( g/ r9 Q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& Q5 \6 G( F$ S# Ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 X2 r) `6 M  r& z) u9 w

$ ^/ z& ?5 o# Y' @; s4 OA look at credit markets
/ _/ b2 O9 h8 I2 ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ E0 x9 ^" b+ p8 K9 x& pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# d  `2 h1 O  p7 R1 z8 q+ D, I; A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) M% Z% ^0 @! a
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 |+ p1 u3 Y/ ^3 b
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ L- c( C  m6 gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; ^9 Y) ]' |0 I# X3 o% P, P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 H8 c+ [, x/ C( {9 G. b
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) a3 K) F0 N. q0 y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 d! i& T( {# y) Y
finding financing.
; H) X  C8 M0 U3 T1 x$ f, o Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 d" L1 N7 [. ]  K  F2 ]- ]
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& _0 }: a0 ^4 Y9 y* q" U' F6 r% P% i& N/ y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 @! W0 V; A1 t  l! ]is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ [; G3 {' @* A" m
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 `- ^$ ?1 {, x$ t$ ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% E( f" R% [/ r- I' s! h/ Q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& k6 Y* `! x4 T9 y: Q) Ttoday.' O/ Y' y" ]4 q( w  l
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 j7 P, W6 o4 t4 l9 ?3 Semerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. G9 w/ ?  j) {+ \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 I0 m) ]) A# uthe Greek default.4 x. ?" c0 ?  Y# A; @1 F" x2 S
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* Y0 o9 w/ O  d3 v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 L* J4 O9 p4 X7 n- a- H5 D
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign; A7 Q* M9 W+ o8 F2 c9 r" A0 f
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ ^1 k. O% J/ @3 X8 N/ I1 d3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; ~1 y$ ^2 q/ `. H9 O5 w& {& fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- E9 I! n6 \: [7 z$ D
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 l" D9 I, T5 B

  C" C7 j9 q2 z+ s$ t7 v% ^Beyond Greece
( G5 m: A: B; [1 h6 h* W- [ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: p  e5 F% j: E
but that was before Italy.
9 R2 H: v4 e* w  E0 V, ] It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 V6 ^: U6 e" c8 @! N
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ M2 N2 J' N) j  k) j  m% I# P
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
$ x9 Q) J  Y1 _4 Z5 p" |$ M  v% H) v0 ~3 ]" o
Conclusion( }9 M9 m, q; C) u$ E+ r1 [  D% G
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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