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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# C: e0 ?# ~* d& W& J

* G$ m8 ^9 q( x$ ]; nMarket Commentary/ u; d  l) r. ?" Q2 y7 @
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 i2 c% a8 U% l2 i1 y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! _2 D. `5 Z, i* ]6 c+ S: Z
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
( B/ C0 E- K, b+ w4 E Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& I  Y% u8 L: x. N5 u" a  w" C1 @as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 j% H* z' P; ~2 L0 K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 g: m+ V% S2 h0 a/ d2 l$ J' Padjustments.
' W( J+ E. z+ j% c This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! w2 ?1 M4 K' F& _  T% }
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., `4 X( j4 f+ R1 u$ j4 }4 ]5 N) s
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( u, P! d8 z7 ?# `lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' r, s1 E2 K0 S  U& a4 ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ y  K1 O! M$ Q9 g8 x7 P
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.( b  R4 }  |3 a
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ j& D9 h  ^- g
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; s- i" L( g. G( U# n& m
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; h5 G% L( z* }  }2 W& ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# u/ D4 w! Y1 A3 |( N8 ~8 Q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 B! P: P% I% i. j+ f& y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ }. f) ^8 I/ x& q6 x- X/ T7 uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 P9 G/ f8 }, [impose liquidation values.
- w0 n* B) n  V5 M5 f8 y! ~% t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, |/ w. ~" d- @1 _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# E, }! m9 {/ u- F The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# y+ w: ?- a! J* fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ O' d/ c, Q2 m8 r& J5 N
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A look at credit markets5 v8 r# x! ]. c3 E+ {9 e' U
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ |7 Z: f) Q7 M: F& j. [. n
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  `0 r3 N1 c, I
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% w0 o8 v# j3 `$ M' A* Hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 n9 w) H3 b1 c" B6 P/ v
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 I; b, K% I% `* S5 Faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, V9 `/ x6 \% o$ Q& \5 |% |6 V
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 Y7 F8 e0 F: V8 w4 j" p' N& spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" ]1 F# e& k( x; b- ]) [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" u' t% t! |0 P" A4 c5 e5 c, \finding financing.
% P6 ?% D0 s8 b! y/ y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, ^, x, l# Y4 Q9 h3 ?
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 G+ t. P) V. T' t7 a Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 ]1 _' h) Y5 T1 S3 S. x1 }
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  X( \5 b' f6 w& y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
2 O  l5 ]8 `! |bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, i# ~1 n) H% [0 s+ k- q! W European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ x2 u* E& v$ q( z7 I- A* Z; V
today.
% G4 j+ o) X: P" ]3 J1 B( P; I- z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 R0 Y( t0 T+ }8 x! x- r- i& d, Nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: _; o+ f2 M. v/ O6 Y, y2 O1 ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 n& X2 E& U8 s0 k
the Greek default.
  Z8 \9 B' t1 H" r8 s As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 L% |0 t, ~( v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ t0 f; Q" y, x: T4 b, o2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. w- r1 r0 b: V2 W5 A6 q
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' s: P7 A$ @, o/ q; b% L8 i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' L1 K! M8 D7 Hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 W- a9 C7 K! K( w. O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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, V2 x6 r: d3 A5 }0 y7 OBeyond Greece. Q9 d" j# w% K9 V7 ^* v* `
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& W. c, v) }& ~- E& H. Obut that was before Italy.
' u$ k) i- ^( ]: G It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 _+ N8 P3 V* q$ x It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 z, |- }: `, h$ y6 i: nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& G0 f+ g* K. D- q" V
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Conclusion
4 x0 t) }& j+ W' d; o; M2 F" y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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