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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. R+ z* Z! T/ _8 Q$ ?% m/ O

) O* w( p0 g6 n7 f8 ^. ?* ZMarket Commentary
6 c# j  w8 Y( ]. \# R. u9 p; s" m; LEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 e! X" [1 l: k/ j9 E$ _8 ZJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 t. m2 r) B1 u- MSignature Global Advisors* ~+ @2 p7 ^4 |  s3 Z
. C7 l) k3 E! ]! d" J. @4 X
' h, I, K; x& J
Background remarks
4 O# [. r$ C) N9 w# m  W3 t3 O( w Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 e& w5 b' _: I0 R" Q/ Y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& V$ L; \) |" I+ p
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; q& F- ^! C+ e" w1 [$ Qadjustments.9 U# I8 W& N9 @
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, ~2 U1 k- Y( H& g
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 S9 t# }) o/ z+ V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ O" d% j- Q  @  B9 W
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 q( {* `+ H3 U* P1 p* \, I. N
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 L' y' m/ S+ k# O0 i1 o* a: |* V+ hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage., y' E; r& y, {2 P% k
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* D) [- B2 x4 x: C" mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( w' h0 }  |; w5 f* N
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
2 n/ K. R6 l/ c3 W+ k* F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; ^$ g3 }, L5 x, k/ R2 d/ jreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( i4 U/ F- f) E( X- ^4 `( o4 I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: B0 h! @2 [4 y$ Y+ w: @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 M5 f! X+ l! W4 q' g8 Z
impose liquidation values.: v' G. A! F/ \! \7 y8 X) m) X
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 P; t! J5 b9 [6 pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) {3 F4 b  ]6 C0 C" u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 `* u, [2 d6 o. G$ |" l2 Vscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 G6 o0 Z$ n! S9 v# N1 w. K$ w$ V& ~
5 o* Q8 m! ?" L
A look at credit markets" n+ l6 \# n1 F+ x
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- X2 d" h% q0 |7 k* ~5 H; s" v0 _
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 Q) B+ ]. ^, ^, ?' m- O/ j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 B" ?4 ?5 E* S. x' R8 ~, H
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* [& U  K: L2 r3 m
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 E4 X& J  m' B0 q+ f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 o  G% l0 W2 [* }9 ~; i) ~. q: E
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# b( j0 ^9 {) N/ [0 x) ]2 Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! p2 `4 W" f9 e* ~. q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& s7 B: i4 x" s2 K& Q. l  [8 b
finding financing.
' U1 S: j; Y4 F, n5 Z$ W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 f. U) @  U" r5 ^. K& E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- b+ \, p1 \* A4 {6 q9 k/ N. g1 z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 E5 |/ f) ?$ G9 c4 O9 @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) N( d+ s# a) H. P. t# C- D9 N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 m0 @$ D0 W2 S% d0 G# c" X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 B' O4 i( R4 D# N0 b' Z" u$ j" @/ K
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 o* H& v+ k" A: O
today.8 R! L$ ]: E1 t; y# i% x
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 @% S; m( Y# Q# u, U8 U# Pemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 X2 n4 c( O: Y! e! R1 O Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 N$ g; `6 E1 l) \; B6 Z. Hthe Greek default.
; k2 H7 |0 j: a# U+ n+ ~7 ?% r As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 J) ~, ?9 k4 F3 K1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, W1 [, n  C8 m- T- g5 P) ^2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, r* R1 K, I3 I% N4 m8 vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals., S# G3 I5 q  n+ P% G2 `( @' S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. f& @, ?4 H" cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* c/ K' I/ e; s
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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/ _2 x: \" W, x3 R2 r9 a# UBeyond Greece
  y$ R' l: o3 C" l0 k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; ~) [/ k' u2 t4 _* j& m2 Bbut that was before Italy.
5 M2 I$ L# @: P/ H9 e$ T8 h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' b. D* u9 e9 Z  a3 ~
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- V7 g2 k" r4 t( _
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
5 ]3 L9 A7 U* Y$ P1 {2 ?- t1 N+ L! a4 z( n6 ], f$ U2 W6 Y
Conclusion7 U6 U+ _1 E0 E3 v% |/ }0 }
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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