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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 D6 y! k) O! z* w0 p( b6 f
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Market Commentary( A! q/ Y/ ]" I
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, o/ M1 C& `4 t9 T. B# @; f
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 ?1 u6 q$ o$ x- k: a- b8 y
Signature Global Advisors" T% X7 d' {; ]# L6 E" m0 s
- `( Y5 O) ]0 I

4 r. {/ f3 u$ D, U+ ZBackground remarks
" }5 @- l) F# {5 u( i2 j Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are' E0 l& _- Y* i& b
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 v) L# T% |# E# m, {3 s+ X$ K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 t3 C3 @6 R( s* ~$ madjustments.- {+ ^! x. Q9 R
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% k) U7 L6 W  r' t. |; [# b/ [safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 N' l: V/ Y$ t) R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 V/ }+ W+ I) w. o! }8 u4 o3 k" Plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  C4 f2 S2 y. X; d9 R# O
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 Y0 e& K! J- Y0 ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 P; u# \6 G; A) w" T  g- d
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 c( F+ K( u6 V) t$ J
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 T2 b: Y4 I( p# o% H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ `0 ~5 R- E( U
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ W5 a( Q3 I( ~( W: o3 Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  v$ a5 z; u. z4 F- s' T3 ]! ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" `7 T" N! n% p* ?# e2 ~% |$ ?as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 p, n* v$ `) \+ D' C7 b
impose liquidation values.1 T; {2 X: P% x" y8 ^, W, z: ?5 C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 C) c7 i- L& p1 ~0 b0 y% [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% f  P, E, L# m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 k, K% a5 T1 H# Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ d; G$ S5 y5 U; r. {8 u

' x: E2 {" f! s) UA look at credit markets/ Y9 c$ j0 o# E5 g$ ?/ u
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* w0 B# w" e4 F! W7 O1 [September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( a1 R, l# s+ M9 v$ \% K6 M. ?3 D High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 B7 j2 a4 t, Y/ ?# G  Zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, F0 O8 {$ @" p) }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 F* @7 X0 Y3 I! s
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ a0 y# a" I2 s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! i6 \0 i! u  }- ~% Z$ U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 c2 k9 T& G/ }. i! M$ ~; N9 {
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 ~, L" D0 O) v2 H+ h. @9 u
finding financing.
2 Y7 o" L* ~3 k0 ^. t* E  ?  x. b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 v3 Q! n5 O3 n4 ~' r  c: lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 }; l' X/ j7 `8 ]: M' G" h, U Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, d9 R' q0 ]9 y7 a
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  h; v' R5 [5 I
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) C, L2 @$ x; i6 Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 d9 a' G( b7 Q! c+ u* r European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 p- A* d+ P$ X$ q$ E" i1 utoday.
3 u+ ^8 H, T0 |4 n/ p, A+ l Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. s9 R" b4 o0 F0 A0 O
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 d$ |( @- H& e2 m1 k1 L. u Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 L( d9 O1 u. s/ t7 ithe Greek default.; b% O9 e* `+ f2 V% s6 E  k
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 j  X# s" \# c) A1 A* E
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" g) o0 i5 w; \: c4 o5 J* I
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 {6 D5 R$ D3 ^0 u4 |; @: udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 r4 M; P# v3 y" p3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 i+ f: q- R: V0 n  j. hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* K" t! V8 v& @0 V4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( H$ {6 a9 l8 p/ W
: `+ [$ J( a% ]- p, a/ d1 O
Beyond Greece* l/ _; L/ l* K
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& i/ c. C: ?9 y- zbut that was before Italy.; ^. S5 N; k; |! b! }
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) w2 o7 X( e& _( G) h/ d8 V- @
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the! T  [& o0 c8 Y, B. ~4 o$ ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. K/ }9 Q4 i; ~/ Q( K" F
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Conclusion
* _  b5 K( g) F& L  w We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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