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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & g& a& f. H% E! }* E) o2 s5 y
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 A" M4 s" _2 [+ v- Q7 k2 lmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive' K- [6 _# S2 J: e1 a
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 o! i* q4 b3 A+ V! U$ L
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# Y, I% J8 s5 }1 g- N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 k( Q! R& O( D3 m0 {" F3 L T
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 Q# J! }: v& U1 O4 n7 o
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& O' h! I+ F. ~; ]& G" w+ {measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' @; E( f" T( z7 K% @6 f: Q- P RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
) [ J6 U2 ]. U& ~worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ ]% ?2 F# \9 Q- y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 d: a% b+ D0 s2 o2 b: R
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 ]; S0 s" [. W The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 G4 A: o ?/ d$ N, d |# u
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, _4 ~8 g! A f7 y" U- }
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' Z- x$ ^8 _4 V4 N! y9 n% pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- M3 s/ h+ L0 n5 ?
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) W9 X3 Z y% C1 n' dthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ i3 V5 L- s0 [0 T1 r8 @* O& u# S
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ F3 v/ s x7 _; g! Q4 [8 Omay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% ^+ _% E$ ]* a
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# }1 c1 Z9 \1 H3 O9 A
historically depressed levels.. B8 P1 f" V' `! f. |) Z
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: n0 w6 Z9 i) V4 o1 ~" r2 aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* h* i8 o2 }3 }) ?2 x" E1 w, X
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the [' w( j/ U* U* d. E
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This$ {6 f+ @. c0 ?+ o- o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 N5 J4 n5 V# x5 |
months ahead," added Hogue.
/ ?) P8 {. v8 ?. L, P# q1 w; e RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' H0 f- B) [3 Q/ ^+ I% R
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ n6 z& x; ~1 c42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- x9 ^+ J: b$ F- H$ g
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
" C0 |) W c) X7 z4 ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 B- L/ _+ M. o5 o5 a. {/ u
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 p8 b* {7 J" `2 S* c6 stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 B8 J. e5 r- q3 \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. [( t. J% @- ]9 |8 Z8 _% k
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. b6 L1 n4 E6 d. d" M' N [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 t0 O. G3 Z. _1 B
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 G2 c$ i, N1 ~4 j8 ]2 q* S( t
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. M' r5 A3 p7 J/ _/ w5 x
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( \) A/ |% E0 z8 n! ?5 U$ ?4 M! Xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
$ r Q* X8 h& gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! k- y2 E0 J+ h: [8 D+ B4 s% G, n% I# Z- M
<<9 w. b& p* a0 O
Highlights from across Canada:# a F5 y1 E/ k/ W. h1 J* C
. ]6 b# C6 n# Q; H
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ P, Y* V$ @- N% U
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) L, h8 g, \6 m& p home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 r9 m3 n5 O) J
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* ]3 N2 g1 I: C3 V3 c9 { since about the middle of 2007.
5 d& U3 d: Q2 o - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 f( I: s& C" ^) H/ R5 j
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 D! t3 K1 M: g0 g. Q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, X# {5 V' }$ P. x6 V4 i
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' M4 S/ O. F% e8 b: Z+ Q# n$ E poor affordability levels.; s/ O" |, U# Z
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the E# F) X4 h' \+ O* F
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 m7 R9 M1 [+ U5 ~9 ]; M c
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: I6 T- o0 i6 p/ K' W
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) c( P2 x9 S* U. l5 A' _
minimize any downside risks.
, V* O. z! I1 ]+ P8 ]0 M, L0 w - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& Y' I$ m) I7 H conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# S& I( ]8 @3 x" C! F# M unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 {5 _6 ^0 p& Q" n
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 |+ @8 t) a! b# p3 }4 V being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 X5 b4 S7 [( ^; T; K
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- ~3 @ Y2 r) a3 e Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- q9 L% E' j. g& L+ O! }6 K far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& S0 o) ~* x! m# o# b/ w. W0 \, b
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) {7 W. p) z1 A7 l& i5 ?/ T ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( i, v# W& }: d6 F9 d modestly in recent years.
5 W2 I! r* \" j - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 J6 B& c( v6 v general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
2 Q& v9 ^! d4 c! ^ t spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: Q! o7 a2 }5 k) E3 x, M
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, a1 x4 h; d: E4 w) r& O following two years of deterioration.
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