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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ H* d4 B8 V$ @" K J7 ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 t( ~8 J* q5 k0 c/ M+ k, ]middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
; r1 J- i! q3 m% u1 vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# |. V& @, k) W! vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.$ s! @ u9 C) m! e
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ h+ [# G9 J& {. K9 p8 L
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ v7 f: N2 a" c/ [2 Yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
U% c q4 S! F8 I; w4 S% ]3 imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" A4 c( m4 q+ Z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is0 C6 q& x* t# z/ H8 ^- \
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ B1 @' G9 M) S1 {0 e1 `7 O! iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 v; A, o, B9 V+ \; x
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' s/ B: j$ O; y% {" e$ g
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 i$ j6 s Z1 G# g
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" ~$ I) X7 }: T% F/ U* _/ R2 H: yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 A7 i1 `$ p' ?$ S8 U; b) H& d8 l2 W
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) K* P; R4 n+ P$ y. [' V. Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 R5 u; v$ d! d; d. T5 e0 rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* k; Z- n0 ^% v4 y, Y) ^& B; I* X# l
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
8 `& ~! l# a% p, @6 Bmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# \0 w* [$ ?, N( @ O
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- G Y: L/ j2 H* |historically depressed levels.. s9 I3 U0 O* x! @) l
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( a" y" d% p- O' f( ^1 eof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ ]4 s- ]2 B: h+ B6 u# Y( Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ Y' q3 R: @# Q6 x( ghands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 T' i% Q0 z; `' Q5 Nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' T7 Q4 B" o4 hmonths ahead," added Hogue.: N8 F, C4 a# h6 V$ T' e* M- v
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
5 i o1 I* ~2 k9 h8 j% x9 \$ c( S# Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" m+ ]. }8 c, u6 A: N% m$ o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 d& ~* ?8 X8 y# S; _; D The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* B/ q; j2 t7 v9 P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% d1 F4 [4 s' E, I3 Z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: R) {# P, t7 [$ K% \7 G6 ], a- |
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 `4 o2 C4 O( g- d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
, ?- Y0 U. J% C' l# \based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property4 i! o' t+ f3 e1 `4 [+ N9 h0 y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ h8 j4 R* t! ] B6 y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. j3 d5 ~& O) [( Y, e
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% P6 c7 g: x- l7 T, m9 E
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" Y9 k. _5 b- x, F% L; e6 @costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 c# h [2 ?/ a6 o& C- z4 \& R: p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 ^+ m8 X" x; o& @' P2 M! z: o8 X& S* F
* r. W' Y' l1 l4 l% A e <<4 ~( [; S; X( `( a" m/ N
Highlights from across Canada:' p% |5 J+ J! Y% a4 }9 Q2 Y2 L
6 J" [6 v8 P0 b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 ]* P# U8 c1 @! A' m+ E ]3 S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" m% ^# W* `6 o! Y* [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 ]5 k' i, A3 `6 M; L) u( i
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 F: J$ \6 E$ g, q: M: i& e
since about the middle of 2007.
$ e) }0 S/ b* q* ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 E6 L' x* }& S/ r7 v& L2 v: x frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 e$ k2 T% B; V6 f2 k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still& A: M b5 V; v6 T
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 q5 X- p& ?/ k4 `! { d8 I
poor affordability levels.
1 l9 E0 D7 m' P2 l1 _3 D - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; _1 z. r& {$ ?4 L( n vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 \' L" p J/ u/ r. w1 H prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 Y, K: \& c) }$ D3 k
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to, I/ G. W# A# Z" Y) z$ q9 M0 i% j
minimize any downside risks.
: X* O1 p/ @+ k& A - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 X H9 _/ \4 L, M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ R! s) {) s+ X D; h4 u- w unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* O/ I. y' H. X o 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. `0 V$ R1 d3 Q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 j+ V& h" ^5 v5 d5 G6 \% l
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
c2 M* [9 [0 A! {8 _1 k& H Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' t2 `% B7 `0 ^. s
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% z2 c2 B9 |: n5 U" P
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" i! p1 n, N! d# ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- ^9 I3 ]2 F2 B
modestly in recent years.
: F+ ~5 h/ d) \8 ~# o1 A1 q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' e. C- Q& x4 g7 t" N" _: P general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% ^) U9 c7 |0 l9 b" J0 H, C
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) ~& f& d$ B* X; \: S
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- }3 h L" f- V! s. n. b: ? following two years of deterioration.
s6 C% X7 g$ V; X5 d* X7 D/ Z4 a. U! X >> |
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