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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 e3 ]9 ]9 C3 b5 i TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 V& C) `. p2 bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% R% O: x6 z% y) xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- x4 Q% F. ~0 i
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.4 Q' I8 d2 N( M3 }+ {
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 m4 a/ l' d3 e+ `
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 f9 `; R: m. K& W# g1 X* ?- g! C
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 ] m; ]% c& u; R! i& ~measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- b: X9 S* V+ o& x3 \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; g. y# M: b3 yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 W3 H5 W2 \: K( w5 F
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 m' p8 T9 ^. X+ E" Q" Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.3 Z* \9 g( d5 E. P. m& {( U' b/ f( o
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 M3 z% |; g4 q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 l& K. W9 T$ R7 E ~0 F, @' v1 V4 F2 }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 R6 [8 B m8 x' hAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# g5 ^: v& w+ t/ |
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ f. t' Q( h2 y L' V1 ~) ^the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.1 ]: o8 D' q# k% W$ w A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! {# t4 O& ?$ }! B6 L; V smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 W8 N* k6 ?6 Z! Q2 g% U& e) r0 @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) b" b/ K+ U; \historically depressed levels.7 e/ m: F7 O- I2 H/ P: L9 ~
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& f+ v# b) D6 n
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 Y3 U& q3 G* J/ i: ]. Q
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 k" t2 B" H& ^% j. T3 ^" @
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. i; g0 O$ G* M! b9 venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 m5 ?& Y. F) x; o% X6 W0 g
months ahead," added Hogue.$ A ?+ M% M: L# g/ Y( A+ u* R
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& h+ R# ~9 Z: A5 w
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary/ H* w5 G( ?+ g% `9 ?* r, D6 s
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 d0 s9 V& B, j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
; F' M, w7 Q0 @1 T9 R8 xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- {: N D5 }$ S! o3 Z9 _) Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, O& N% C6 R. k- v) i( X$ P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 j) `6 H. k& P: D" Z( N5 a
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
) l# J$ C. S2 Q5 Wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property6 C' H9 D! G7 a. G* ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 b7 U- }" h1 ~% B
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
K3 a9 e- E6 Z7 a1 V( Jcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, k& A9 X; y( e. B9 F* @2 OFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( c8 `1 T' d" b" A' c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 T: P/ ~, T7 }
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% C0 |+ S' d( s* l
& t- A# g/ H$ ]. ]- D% J$ y# g$ o
<<% h% L# ^0 l) K) H; q e
Highlights from across Canada:
! D1 Y- s- Q5 R
" z9 f3 ?# u8 Z) x F - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) E& N& d8 q& B3 Q1 B
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 a$ b$ _$ H4 d3 ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 g, c: x0 Z9 W' `$ U$ z3 j2 y7 f
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 v! w6 r1 I/ ]7 m! s+ m6 ^- E6 F
since about the middle of 2007.
+ B9 \) y9 w. T- E; R - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; m0 [# W. r7 F8 u9 g' } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 h( o e/ U/ c, D$ ?
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 Z3 ?0 p3 y8 O" q9 @
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! R, b( n* j* g7 d poor affordability levels.3 v A+ A& L% [; {: S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& @: Z2 ^! G& M$ G" a$ g+ A( k$ | vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 k) i) J7 S T& a+ z2 N6 ]" \ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 ?; R5 W; {+ S' P) J Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
2 w% \: r: Z' ? minimize any downside risks.. N' l2 ]& D/ i- f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( Q+ M0 B1 B: U, E0 N2 P8 R
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ q1 P4 O: B( a* H: u& [' `
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ ]) R3 L: u) F) ?9 q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* |5 D0 ?) M/ \" W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 D" H8 g7 G1 D. k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 \# Z* W* v F, m Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ q) ]6 z5 n, u% I7 U
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% f& G$ I2 o! U6 I. x reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) \, J* d/ i" ?* Z& g- \ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; v6 I% F) C' d modestly in recent years.. f9 s# j, d/ {8 O" C- l
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 ^$ D$ ~0 g6 q$ _" G6 L/ \ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) w( r$ G* I$ |/ G. I# i4 D
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# c5 Q3 S9 r: n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 \/ z; s5 ^: B4 J2 D7 r
following two years of deterioration.
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