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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# o- \7 Q' c8 ` TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
$ Z7 w6 [1 \& l4 L: {; r4 E( K, Tmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive( }+ ^& ]1 b$ V" A& {1 q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
% ? S% i& p5 S% l3 k4 @according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, x9 F" X9 q6 t# I1 d+ t9 s "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 ?. v2 g/ r$ @" g1 r& @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 @+ \, Z, p, I
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. e. S$ W! d8 c8 o
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 P7 I [) K4 Y6 D# o
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is |0 [% Q4 F! ?# O5 H" l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
L, h( Z, u0 T; ` n7 ?which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. h0 e( b* e" x9 Y/ B% Jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.) e6 }# k9 z [. b
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ I& S, t2 D, \ b7 L R4 Vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 I+ ]4 Y" p4 E
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 b8 |, P$ t1 u: r7 z9 cAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 k3 h) b% p, k1 R# p/ I. W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# h D+ A' d* s6 Fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ @. \0 b8 t& {- |3 X
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
& f+ |/ _) X& s# b* Imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 I. c: I6 ~! d' ]+ w
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) T. l0 g& \! a" w
historically depressed levels.
+ n" r0 m9 a4 a& b( W: x9 D( c Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, r( a% s5 x1 Z$ a6 K( F( D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 s: ~. E6 p9 O) z9 i& `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ C5 n% Z. F5 r/ A
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 K" ` D5 N6 Z1 R Ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" B5 n0 B; S) a! T
months ahead," added Hogue.
+ ]/ V5 T3 z" J" P$ f. e RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 Y2 r* F) p; ?' p+ v, b& r* T& p8 Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" {7 I% U; V, x P
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; i3 Q2 |1 P. k( k9 Z8 e
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 f' ~7 M/ ]# I: n% F) y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 V' x# q6 l& m5 m2 [cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' L _% |# ^' ^/ g- }' l
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 X3 h! j& v/ T# o- [( @
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 q y5 i8 Y! [based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property L1 a) G6 B9 \# H) l: E
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: r* }$ f, n" X6 Gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 B. V& d) n( g
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 H# o' I3 Y, c7 w7 D: _4 h
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( e. Q; s: I9 s4 a/ R" Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- i. b$ S R. D2 _5 r! \9 ^/ h Y* ] L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- L6 `* z3 z1 {2 x/ X0 F6 q2 J& i+ |0 T
1 G5 G; O9 m$ q% s
<<( V2 ~: U& d# n3 B& @+ e
Highlights from across Canada:
. {* s; O1 T$ K, v, a! u/ x3 f
: K4 k; T: [$ ~/ a$ U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ Y4 E# y0 h, ~( N intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 n( n: j. {2 M: T" e( T) C$ ?
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound% Z6 D+ A \4 k9 I7 H
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 e- ^# |- h% Y8 A7 i" k since about the middle of 2007.
P) T, N( `% s) k4 ^ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) {; ^; _; a! M6 J frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 A8 n" ]) ]% K2 c1 c1 c; K9 R3 S decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 Z {# l( [, J! ^4 X7 ?2 }; m
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 z; J- K$ }" {* i poor affordability levels.
* b& g. s( }- ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: _8 o3 v7 \6 e7 e# N vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 h7 U' w( G$ C- n8 _( i" M( g
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& W! K V& I) v u2 a4 f: d
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) A R& }" |' X0 l# Z
minimize any downside risks.
# I0 h, s) f8 { - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 g8 y; c: }+ `6 l conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ G" l' P* R, e: _. p1 E9 m6 @- c8 x unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 h. J5 R9 `* `# L7 L- X 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, ~ t4 @% {2 L0 S2 q3 c6 b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 f: a3 N! Y- o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 E( t& }5 M% K+ L
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 [; p! E$ T; y% u8 I0 r far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, S9 Y8 n' B3 V. C reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be X4 S) s# b1 A5 y2 L3 Q7 C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 o- A: l' R) t' o8 J
modestly in recent years.4 `; q. z# }5 f; X5 q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 g8 S# }; @+ ]% E* T/ H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, X/ j& j$ L! {- T spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 W7 u2 ?8 [5 }! t9 w; j1 h
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 x+ m) V8 C2 N( o9 H5 N9 { following two years of deterioration. N7 y" E, X8 K2 L
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