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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. {5 a1 Z; s! U) R7 DWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ ]/ w) ~4 f+ b6 X8 s% Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( Q7 t8 @9 Y7 ]: u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: N+ l' p( J! u* i. |; R2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* k) j5 R- P c o1 xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* R! q9 X) o* E9 pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ h2 E7 n; }, @3 u9 P- uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 O6 j4 j, w# }7 e) f, F3 Gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 A3 c6 N- \2 W, a) F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 C$ X* N+ s! L! fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ t! L: x2 P7 d8 ^
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
' I9 ?3 t' N3 C% G; c% }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this% D; O# V! h4 X3 M
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- d% B: x4 @1 l9 u, B1 B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 p% I6 F2 \2 t% x$ `; V
30,000 new households will form in the province during" ^! K3 I, K m
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 _2 k3 S' E. T. e: q7 t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 p% N9 D; b& a0 F
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 U: Q. w0 D- [8 @/ a+ J9 o( p0 pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta a& t& r, x0 T
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 k* K6 ]+ s1 n/ F
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) y! ^6 z- V3 R" n% Lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 A2 J' ? | ^! psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories% n* g! ~/ d. j* ?9 U7 j0 E( t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 P' X) e/ ?2 Y) J8 E. N& A8 u8 Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 g& S2 w/ Q! t/ u, Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! |9 d' t- g5 P" [! ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 Y$ \; S: |% x3 u; J
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ h: c z% A( f* v9 F4 D/ _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# q, W! ~1 q& Y) T3 q8 i% |* `
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% P6 a9 r& ^ p/ o, U0 _3 x
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- z: _. B. N3 b* W
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- \$ i! x+ J9 k i+ e. [
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 @4 X4 i# Z* T3 jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 B5 C5 \9 Z9 H" ?; f
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 I: p- h2 g* O/ prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* Y9 @# P* W* _2 q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
7 N: h$ A- B' h7 h5 Q0 [( i& [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, s3 p( o; Z- f2 c5 NAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan7 Z0 |4 ^" c% p; D! }" C2 c5 n) [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
d! H9 H: t+ z# J; l xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ ]8 _" s8 i8 \% M& uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. _- i2 l2 v3 _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 \/ N* v1 ~6 c" Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 ^3 \5 K' L5 ?5 ]7 e% g( {The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. ]% m7 h1 n B1 kresale price in February is evidence that past prices5 n1 i( `( w- W: r7 v/ [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" L+ B" b; L6 @' ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* R5 s I+ g9 r/ o ~! s5 wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 d% e c$ e: v2 s: h b
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ _! A& |, `5 r/ vleg down over 2009.
# b# \+ J3 X) j0 z/ X4 T0 Q3 m9 J$ T# K, V$ K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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