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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.- a5 A& L; R" @' O. e  L/ e
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! W% I3 X9 U2 N1 \

; D0 m9 i- L" k2 QThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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+ c' x3 V/ J; D' P5 F"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ( N9 g/ F6 L1 y" @5 R( X
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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2 ?( m( ^& P4 jTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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. D: N, [# u% [0 T/ p"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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9 b2 b) _& ~6 I1 |Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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$ Z  S/ J: w5 H) L3 y+ rhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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+ v6 _# }* z# x% o3 ]5 O& _[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。4 h. v- M$ R9 b: }* l  Z2 `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  i, \3 b; b" k4 d( r& @3 ?7 B* Q

8 u, V6 B5 M% V) w& A1 _9 _/ E- G[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- [- u9 J; S* ~2 A( ~) [跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ f0 k# ~- P" g' G7 B很多人都回学校深造去了" j% \: m$ d: D9 P2 N' t
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( T# u% f' t4 n) q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ J& D3 }: M! `boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. W# U4 q+ O$ x( Y  P1 G. }are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' C1 e4 f- V. W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- ^! P! O0 C% j  R; a
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ y" v, S; M8 {8 A; Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; S  k9 o. u, n& v- z2 @/ R) s+ [the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* |- `$ W1 v, R  d" u+ xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 `( e) N9 N0 h5 z7 D) x' ?7 D
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 ]+ L; ?, t( Iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# M5 N& Q" g* v$ ~/ z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 T: d; [4 A5 l1 U  _; [( F+ d1 b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' O# U& j1 P& V7 h; p0 W. O8 ~# Oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 `( `0 r, G3 `* dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* o% B0 g: F& ^. v
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 r! k0 T5 ~6 n- b( N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 a9 f! q+ d3 s+ UEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# \1 N& Z# z+ r' M: b7 D& B0 V
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 Q  ]6 O  l8 L( V( P$ Iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& }( g8 Z' V! Q& x( v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# U, E+ `8 X9 L% M
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 n* u- ^+ b4 N, P* ^' ]8 s) jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- C2 Z2 @' V% D$ E4 \
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* Z  W! e) [( }) v9 c5 G
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' L: T6 U5 t1 ]3 p7 I( {. r( Y: {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 {( {4 q5 E$ L% ]( U7 W2 g% n
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# i3 w; d8 J5 W! H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  q# }9 s2 q, N) \) i* N+ l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# D" g" F* V6 e$ otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! i& l9 `7 U4 n8 b. k+ u* Q! N* W' D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  M  f' |/ [, `& I" E# I; e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 R0 R" [2 t' \! t' e% hrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% m* M. y# r4 ^4 R5 {. Z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; [9 @" {$ A4 M* xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) E6 a1 A. ]. g! T) Z3 E6 Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 q" }) P8 S2 prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 B7 M! @+ l1 U! `; pThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; }% D" z2 m5 C& s8 yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: e0 ~2 K& G; C9 o4 }
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan7 Q2 Z! j' |2 A  d6 ~. u! O
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" ^6 c+ b2 A% a% d7 Urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ X- ]8 |. d, z: j2 O* R! W% j
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ P7 D; @# ]. \/ T+ z6 dthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  j( h+ x$ M1 fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( _( ?+ P5 m3 d6 H7 Y! [6 dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* G6 M: W( i3 o, D) Y% iresale price in February is evidence that past prices
- @0 _- U6 R8 oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 P8 H& f5 y0 z2 a2 ^* ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* g: X. L' W) _5 A1 H* s: w5 bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) ~) k. f$ J: g$ g& t3 c6 K" DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- n( i# L0 W( W: K/ d5 E% ^  J% B
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* v" T4 m* P! P" N9 q! O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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! B1 V# b& w/ c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. / f% n. g: A; ?+ Q: ~
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子) R4 @$ o  m/ K4 \+ A: F

) D$ r" E" d9 V+ }http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! S* \3 g7 N" c; R

+ u8 S5 H2 h$ S/ s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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