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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
. q5 y# w1 r* z- l$ y- @ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
( {1 r! w7 {1 Q1 x+ _! rcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern1 q& b4 Z" Y( \
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging6 K# U; }! C4 i& ], G4 ^
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
1 x, W4 r6 s/ W( O% c t0 Iand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more, u" i( ?2 B/ g
upbeat.
+ }3 _7 ]2 L+ }; Q1 m0 z Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 h+ W' }$ x( qannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
7 e% g; r, [; |# Pinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
4 f! e% O, \* n2 @ Nestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
0 Y, W# G: r8 K; E3 E0 a5 Xrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US., N* F9 s' v* D3 u$ C2 b
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
% L! f3 w2 N: _( v: e! u3 M* hincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.1 H. u0 S) z3 C5 ^+ y* ]. X2 ^
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 G, D' S/ ?; N$ O8 S: K* i
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment' d- M, h3 u7 R- |$ f$ H Y
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to4 c" d2 T* a4 Y7 {: q! _
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
- D( }$ V. R9 V5 X; p/ v4 i* Khighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
: s# l3 s$ Z/ j( J5 C According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
6 Y" O; e1 c/ u! m) jborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
! p: s* v9 h% H+ H0 Aspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey$ A& I$ @7 g0 x3 b) o% ?+ f( E
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) q# x0 v6 i" j! t# }correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, R0 |* c5 Q# y; }$ b# ?4 X4 w2 Q
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.& E& }# N) k) @4 H7 x* N4 ^2 X
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian5 F2 l. G8 S+ [' x! [
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 R7 l4 {) g9 g7 W3 \% lcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, a6 p8 U! ]/ P; W* t
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
" w6 Q( B% {8 ?5 C7 @especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
9 w8 V' Q, a) @development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
9 C7 l6 x Q5 N; A/ o9 H' Vresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
0 h/ R- ?0 O1 C" Ltake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and- O. x' k4 r ~) S8 b" H7 k
single-family housing looks overpriced.
: _# ~" f, [. V6 c0 t Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
) X4 U! n3 g7 l% I3 ~" ?$ K/ Z7 ?tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
, x" h( c" o) I5 rmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
& B4 v- u) F5 r; Q6 m( G0 Lhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting( K: t8 @6 z+ |2 c
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,2 n. N* t' f6 {( B+ f
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" _) V4 }3 A" F1 Aapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
/ q* j6 N9 b4 w$ Y6 M9 Zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing) D, J7 ^& U* H: [$ y4 K0 K
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
. `2 q, T3 N0 y% g6 M% L) v* qthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development( K; T; s+ b4 i6 i0 A$ r0 v
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
, C" \0 k3 x; R! S( J5 |1 e' J6 N! S
Canadian Markets to Watch
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# V1 K7 U! K, t: V3 f: @; _) V The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central$ G5 ?/ \* O: L
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour6 f) b/ s1 F. t% e" b- i
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back4 _0 h" h; t9 @6 P
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in' g; {4 I l9 R1 `8 m# f
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
B" X8 m! B) l. u+ q8 I4 m* P! kprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out$ T L; }: J: g- A- u8 m. ~
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
" d' R7 B" [3 I& _% mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain4 w" g) e. h% X& h9 o# T% e
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
& g& T* s" `" l) i" J4 b2 f9 W7 sToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
# [4 Y' {6 ?( [! j3 H% \ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.: u% L% {& R9 Z4 d# \0 _8 P# u
' V8 J4 f! r; p( D2 ^& u# i1 T Calgary/Edmonton
$ _5 ]4 M( ^9 s/ v6 ~
( t+ D5 ^* s% B, a X Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one$ K# H+ Q+ z' X: ~6 S; R. D
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a9 @0 ~2 D; h% y# K) M2 I+ i
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
, @- i v' h/ C# o) g6 I48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.' U$ B% r `8 B
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 {* W: @. F5 q# @, m* ?& n
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
# |. \3 j9 V$ S* Q/ w" y. y4 ?Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays1 \! b, L4 \, R) ^2 i* |
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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( |4 B0 c* b, L& b Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is5 q# J8 M! f$ I
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
; e9 Z, ^" `% C3 Zreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
6 p& p) k4 x' Y0 v, O/ B; }2 L# hmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a6 j# u/ Q7 A9 @4 w1 ^/ Q% A
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
" [: [! x; g& q! _$ crecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
5 a5 [% E# `, _7 w$ a3 a' afor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%- C5 J! s6 b6 k
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
# K0 d% H H: B5 jgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
/ `$ p( d% ^9 `2 s; X" j) A F: l# E
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and& j- w9 d/ K8 T2 ^9 c
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" [+ O& y# h: S6 w; O; Yrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing3 a$ p6 b5 ^8 b/ u+ _$ C. H
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
! C( n( P. a) }; T7 u# L" `* uThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square! [9 G1 V, {$ _3 f& y6 q! X
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) S! G+ X* v3 e F, IApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.! L, d- |6 Z1 X( A, }
, s" K+ l+ [/ n+ Q7 Q4 X0 H* b
Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall$ f, {9 y* b+ X' D
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) x1 F$ k# M; b% r4 ^- Pshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in; q4 J9 J9 j5 e1 g: w
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
( f9 s& V$ t r+ ^sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
2 p/ K- u3 G/ Z- i+ Z4 U+ Ehigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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2 _6 {& ]1 O7 I6 s' q. s; q1 x The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years$ o* b% z \. j6 x
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy+ s" u) C( ~, X. Z1 t& S
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
5 j* Y1 J8 J( t" C' \+ b3 enear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
0 ]0 V$ X6 B+ v$ y% P+ M( Foverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( K$ x) S0 U6 gprices."
5 v5 c/ R# d5 U A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at# V3 V0 A8 _8 x5 Y1 G) W
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.+ u& S" y* r' z2 H& i
3 U2 U7 b$ c. w* i0 v- i- _: `% d D
About PricewaterhouseCoopers; F* }! T1 `' j' z x, h
% j' E+ r$ J6 l+ ` h6 }6 i* v4 s PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
# J- \3 t# X9 k* M, }/ Mtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its! {3 Z1 s) C5 z% J' \
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) u5 b1 H& N( G1 U4 B. o. Q7 Tacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
+ i" L6 x! M& v7 q$ Efresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of& P9 i; K7 ]9 {! a: D
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
% {1 a8 Z# d% i- C% g: Y2 arelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the# _0 r3 z# a9 K& \; B* l0 l
country.
6 ~; Z t" |0 K! o1 x, n$ R9 s5 w9 J "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
) F9 {0 R! A& c) K4 ?. q4 Vlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
% V! ?0 x9 u9 U7 P4 H' O" [1 [7 dPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
6 e7 V: i* H2 w# k# beach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
3 s: o- G$ }! o8 r `: V8 u% w* D5 L
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and5 }' F o+ j) w5 F* a( o
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide% U% M0 a* U; D3 |1 r& z y
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
" Y. n( O$ B1 b- M- Ithriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more$ F$ Q* L+ S; ]: O" N+ g; V
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
8 F9 n3 a7 F8 u* z" x. Vdisciplines.: ~6 {0 i* Z8 X
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.& o% Z. c% e( M) q7 x
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District U& g" k8 B& h: G0 s( R
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
9 M% l" K* ^4 n& h5 u- anow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
$ y# Q+ }( c: vhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,, I( P1 ]8 Q V7 i
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake+ B6 A# Z; @ X2 P/ c) R1 j
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,. z" X9 }+ ]! }* \) ]
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please2 M, R: |$ B4 y2 ~
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
) \( a" {% t0 E8 n+ V5 bthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, h+ r# ~. y. M
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
) [: E: [7 d: \8 O' L' ohttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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