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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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" Q6 m6 E4 d: X$ v9 vDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
( w* ?" D) {: P% A% G' A TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US" {$ ?9 }! M/ x, O& r6 M
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
6 B! [) K' T$ c) V3 S5 nas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging- |3 ^& n' ~& y8 u- ^2 y- `
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
4 ~7 L5 J( b7 k& g! @+ B1 t& s' Nand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' [) d4 |" C3 I% |upbeat.- P2 p7 K5 P% X* {% H
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
% i7 n: g3 I- Z3 nannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
3 |, z2 H' ~. l* l4 Hinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real+ T9 l1 E* g6 N; P4 z
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
. W8 |7 }3 F' L. q4 f; l5 ^representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
7 T' A/ g8 f- j" Z2 n- r0 `+ C2 fOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
! e; M3 I, P5 b7 lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
2 ]2 ~" ?' }) O% i9 o2 f- C% g1 U According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian( r' p1 j k, S- x% S
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
2 M: H$ A: C4 F4 Xenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
8 P- R1 u' g4 G% q' h/ j- t9 x! fbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
% c0 t( j7 t2 O4 Q3 o$ Lhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
4 o8 ]0 c" e- T; F7 T `& Q" H According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the, Y7 Y$ b) b( C
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
" N" [% ~$ J3 w2 Z+ zspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
, b" \/ \- u. o1 G5 Sremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
1 h1 a1 N: ?$ U0 X2 [correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
6 e) y6 ?) g8 V# ?2 Avery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.6 v" H! o1 o& q" m5 s* i/ A
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
, e- N- Y; h( g3 \0 Jrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% h0 J$ b6 T: m$ x$ e K
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
* R) ~6 w/ ` A8 J/ E" s( y! R' Y) Ddevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country* |; H; O9 i6 l d
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ Y+ E. n& o9 R1 K) d
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The4 m* F$ q" ^0 Y! X0 F; ]4 z$ d) U
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to7 ^7 B" n( \( G8 }2 U# }
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
2 L S& a# |' U0 P" g5 Nsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
. b5 K, U- C" G! e- t$ J8 m9 T9 } Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with0 y& n3 t# H8 I, B
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian1 m* h5 R+ P: u6 F! G2 s
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) ]/ D+ G) i5 I; z7 C% O8 o
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 U8 S8 H2 I3 |5 [
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
! Z e* Q: }* b, j" m9 j; K) m5 Yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% n }% e4 }; G9 P- Qapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
* d) w; t6 e& U& ^western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
% _4 i. F# |* X. L9 _shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
* j; E0 P, ]0 p' [6 Ethe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
; \4 s2 l4 b8 T! \3 V* hin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.8 h% ~. a+ x# M) Q
+ t u( ], ]6 i- q6 _ Canadian Markets to Watch- F$ t1 j& c& F$ L# s1 ^
/ k" c0 _- {; Y The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central, ?9 Y6 z0 U8 j; M! c& }$ N6 k
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour% X% [' T" ], i$ A4 @
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
$ {- j/ n/ d3 L# ointo the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in4 |' E$ E, s% M P
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( G/ v7 P' s0 u# sprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' z$ t. T, [3 A% o) E+ G0 z
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
4 K& Q# t: v4 M) L1 g1 qprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
6 ]5 H1 L& q( H9 Pwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.: k) ~$ W5 @% p% Q
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high0 T+ w* V- q+ r$ o( s
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one; t2 Q$ Q2 }, w: z
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a& C; b1 N* n# `$ h( J* ?( y3 `
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
/ t; r' Q! |3 J# @0 S: g0 w- j W48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
' C" A, ^" m* y, JFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale3 s$ ?5 }# X$ E# Y! J: b
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the# | O" i, k8 J% C
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
2 o1 i) h1 c2 [% Astrong, this market will continue to do well." \& p' l# `3 f X+ s
w: m. E& S2 u5 _- x Vancouver0 s8 v. `; e1 ]3 }9 u6 P0 R. b* ]& l
8 g" k1 @ S% _: Z! b% ~6 N
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
6 m9 D; D: Y3 \8 V, O* A" z5 l( q7 v! _booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous% p1 z8 R; A% b9 G0 a( [+ c
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the2 O6 u" K: |# }' X
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) ^9 r, S& D" p0 g- r; Vgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy$ E5 k. g: [0 t- v+ @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ J* T$ O3 K) M4 ^
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
: q. T4 Q6 z: ~3 o j# Ifor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
& U$ v; @- N: d2 z% a0 ^good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.5 h0 n4 r. ~" R: x: y% O+ k
+ O2 b B, W0 A k, Z- m- B4 h Toronto5 K( A) w! |- b, k/ u
/ y$ B; g B' x) O1 k Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and1 Q# ~) \4 q3 h$ M
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is6 z3 H/ }3 O% W" Z' V; C3 n
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing, z& s- T% ^# J O5 C
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; k3 q2 T# o$ n! p. U; [- `# K
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square# e p0 W5 p% @$ o. W
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and9 i! u- Y" x) ~9 f
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.6 A$ R6 |- V5 }) |: ^: d w1 w
8 w# K! _4 i' \! @$ ]& K
Montreal G( v: C% _! g% V$ |
2 C8 m, r/ R' g$ |6 r9 b% F Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
K4 \0 g S- f! E% m$ M: d" X3 Hgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 p& j, K/ A9 r( {2 G, y5 Sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 D/ Y2 T4 v/ Y' U" b+ bCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate5 ~- l, x) z1 u& ?
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors* U2 K9 O* x5 z1 n+ U% I% H6 d
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
$ U! g! b9 e" m& B5 R
* I! n% }' `1 W n The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 z+ M( H, u6 T9 j( k) t7 R) J
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy) t% D K0 l$ f$ x% R" s+ X
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
, F3 Y8 A- e lnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
% A5 F. V" g/ ?- xoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
4 N2 l% d( X. W4 Pprices."
h/ v7 p$ B2 u# r4 j A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
, @3 P S( ?6 v: V- |, _1 p: Iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ ?# x3 L9 W) }" D
7 ~8 i3 H$ }$ O8 O2 x6 W( ~$ L
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
6 ^* P* {$ C; t, H. A: Gtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its2 m( U+ p6 |6 b+ T$ q2 {, D' c% S
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
# D1 W+ n9 n5 J, [7 j7 Racross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
, L& ~# L( R; t9 ffresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
; S) l) `/ r3 E! i2 oexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
4 z) c- I3 ]+ i( q: t- Erelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the3 m6 g2 f2 @* E& c; T4 Z& V
country.
& V' L3 {+ N* _& f) z "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
5 x, b% h% j2 g0 X# ~limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
& K6 x6 l& l& K+ lPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
4 |; I9 L, U5 g! |each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.1 _3 {$ r4 Y' `0 U! o$ C P$ g% ?5 \
( P) Q' A+ Y9 k3 h0 T5 i: c# ` About the Urban Land Institute2 B; Q. c! |6 V/ N* F7 e N' O
. Y) G- P% u8 I/ t The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
* _+ ^) V6 f6 ?+ oresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( y% p' i' S" M) F
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
) d5 F; D( V( ~9 cthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
1 b5 T8 \; e! K, Q9 U6 l4 ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development m* k% T9 J) Q/ c j% g, l" j
disciplines.' E; i% n0 }6 E4 n' ^; x5 p
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.5 R. r: h' R2 Q4 S. Q3 J. F' z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District6 S6 y5 I* }" x2 X
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is" f" `( N- i! G/ x
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be* s" _/ J- R! Y3 h/ K* P
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
- J) _/ `7 l' D/ \ I9 R+ I2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
) \9 Y# P& r* H4 R \/ GHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,( M9 U5 z% ]% A/ U! D! S: r
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
4 p I7 c# m _( d9 B: ucall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on5 w' @2 ~, z0 h5 Q! ?0 }- P: N- ?& J, x
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.4 T4 G9 W0 p$ f' o0 G
3 C; C$ n* ^) n' ]0 r8 S- J
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, M4 k0 ^. y) B# V- O
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
/ C9 q# _& S3 K4 Q8 j(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
/ a9 B2 H' k4 M; {# R" Phttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html7 T. i* m9 D) S) c; ^: {
0 N2 u$ K$ L/ s* O( b[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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