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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
; s8 X- h) Y, h% c TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US$ Q2 A* _5 k& b. E
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern% l6 z- T s' z* U- o( v" N8 Y
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging* |2 |! J+ V- V8 `5 B
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)9 R9 b, s+ \- ^( ~
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
- o0 S% M: R9 g4 v0 d6 hupbeat.3 w# {6 ]# c3 K- J& N
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded; @* l' l6 `# g; v# H# ?
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects0 b% q, }8 Y6 V
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
+ b# h0 ~$ V ^6 {3 Bestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
+ H% E# n8 \* B' Nrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.2 L" q0 r+ l7 w
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world$ e. l+ N W+ X- L3 b. J8 b; x1 \* Q
including Asia Pacific and Europe./ V) \( q* C# w( _9 M$ C
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 }9 b5 k5 d: g/ c) A. `& [
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment/ P6 h* m: m# M/ S" ^; h- s6 _
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
0 [& H+ A) C: U% zbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
9 W& R" k7 J- r& P5 J& Phighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.". g; w9 {9 k* q+ i( v8 j
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the. q( M& B5 r; ?6 W; s" x
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 a' {$ ? z: X0 j: Bspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey7 ?) ?( c) z5 K! A
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US- z* z9 |% [5 @- e3 M! p$ |) L
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be. U# K+ z$ T5 T: x& L/ @7 N" w1 N% Y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent." V2 T7 Q" b6 W$ A. }5 i
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian5 r. e4 x- N, M8 `/ c4 `
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
, D" w, i! W# W2 M" r1 ocommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 ] D2 _6 S& w7 u5 f8 U$ A2 y, ^6 ^development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country. J# w8 Y4 M0 Z& x2 p2 h% g. g
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
; K! v2 p4 s' l# B9 {0 w1 adevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The# L5 N T- z& a3 ?; N4 y
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to. w1 i0 z& q+ U2 |) v% c3 [
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
, i$ m+ b! ?* z" ]) Rsingle-family housing looks overpriced.1 q- ^) J0 f0 r' Y
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with8 ?* S& X. H( o8 E
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
8 ?. B) Z0 Y2 ]$ ?- w* gmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
% n* h- ]5 g% v% Z# B: L8 U0 khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
+ B* K. z2 A8 k; O& n- {+ S, a7 snew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,1 o, L6 V9 Z/ e% l( n
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental; D+ y8 {8 {9 o- ~0 {% I
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary9 K$ f j6 Q# x, ^: u N8 x) H
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
; }0 }0 w: c7 R0 rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into% r2 T1 C) ?/ h* n/ X9 R" ^
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development+ p6 P8 E4 V9 }: b0 {' E) n$ X
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch: G" t y7 j n' H9 M* k* V
8 ^( H( y6 v/ T2 F, ^ The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central% B0 ^7 I5 Y$ a3 j
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour8 U V1 U% j+ X0 C
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
7 c# I/ [; L7 K; r. D, a" Linto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
0 _) o0 ^8 ~8 k7 ~; A( Kdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
. H" ^6 D4 m" {projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
* h [/ F5 L! ywest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment# p4 _: i' F+ `8 {4 A% D
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain5 G0 z W# v" `& S( {; X$ o3 H, i) v
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.7 h2 z4 o. T& c9 j/ W, A
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
: a3 |9 p6 x4 r' x- y; gratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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7 r' q7 A8 k, x) p7 e Calgary/Edmonton
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4 `) d5 G, J2 n8 {( W Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one7 |, t- D* i2 E6 ~; y
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a# I8 G! L( L8 y! G
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,2 q4 x n+ X; ~" [5 h- I+ X! N
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
) ^& s4 S* j4 LFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
( B" H# R( b6 K% EHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
1 n* e2 d, P- \ q; v vCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays- U: w/ r1 f/ u8 Y2 C4 z
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver
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$ x w8 V$ Y! S' w Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
1 t; ]6 {; I6 _1 ]' a6 Nbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous# j' b! ]( I4 E1 r5 a
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the2 E2 }5 w1 j$ W1 A1 [5 w4 w
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
% g7 Q) k L" g6 l: w7 ugrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
/ Z) T( q3 V- n; V |recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
) T: [- ?2 m; Y7 ~6 |for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%1 A3 M( n1 c4 a8 [: f8 c2 d
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
- j/ _* j: I3 v) V: Y, B7 @good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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% g& C1 o# [, |& N5 s Toronto
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; R% f% ^, Y4 @5 d, V% R Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
4 n. H7 `) T+ Emanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
3 v7 V* U6 |: a# xrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing: I5 M/ i: k8 v+ t( L' V: d
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.* a) w: u% p0 t! D, ~8 ?
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square [7 c/ D! r2 x% H* t
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and8 k X E# L1 D
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys. W" h' V- Y% }& `
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Montreal6 t+ e/ B1 i* ?( p
6 V& Z; C9 m; O Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall/ E5 p, C/ g: j# d e* X" P, `
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
+ w1 D, l, A W" U$ |- d: Q/ sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in3 J6 t! ?8 Y) j9 ?! R
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate0 Y% U4 c8 k! W" c3 l$ Y; F
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors! O6 W/ l0 B; y( ?9 S) _
higher as a "hold" recommendation.9 U z# B; ^( B7 x8 Q
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 T% r" D( t) u5 u$ {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy$ K. a% b+ Q& N7 ^8 W
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
& w0 H! j, e7 G+ N! k+ @( Wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest9 t- T/ j* S7 K i* K) F2 n
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current9 h( Z7 Y. G8 } Q) \) h, S7 n2 V: p
prices."
' P3 I' U9 c9 v A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
* n4 o# d, S4 m! S% h: nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.1 _& `2 S' n# Z2 S
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ G5 R, a3 D3 [; A0 a) M+ I$ d* h
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its& a: O' [3 M O; G# Y
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
9 ?+ K; m" [9 t* l9 @) v( {across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop& Z7 Q7 Z+ D$ W# P1 O
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
$ w! O: d0 u7 U% }* K C; o: }excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
. i) I' X( P9 ~8 hrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
; K! f* B0 g" Ucountry.7 r8 B; k4 P" Y8 {: E9 A: u
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
9 W# ]" H1 D( B8 O( f) q- elimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
0 B. A/ D' O# ^, w+ i* @PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,# s7 y& f: _5 ?" w
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.1 g4 n t! ?. R* G
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About the Urban Land Institute5 O# C0 g8 H; W# Y& s! c
$ ]9 m4 C9 v9 Y+ @ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
7 @: J+ R( X1 aresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide! b' R1 z6 D( N( L; Q; M
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating; R0 C- \/ r2 H b- c) U+ |* {' }
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
@9 l5 b) J* y1 ^! J% } Z2 }than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
! j! w/ Y" [) l' E2 b+ @! jdisciplines.! q# r W3 x9 c. U) f
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.3 d) U2 |" i3 a Z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District) D5 E6 X$ {' b& w
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
j- v8 O: u6 n. mnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 h- y; n% J9 r) F5 r- _1 ehosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th, K2 c* p8 V9 K) H4 o% _2 _! J
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
" h/ ?3 T6 w5 A$ KHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ G* u& o f7 p
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please- m* v. j# b7 o% _2 H8 _8 W
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on6 U2 J$ k9 J2 ]2 ?4 h% g2 H4 I
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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1 k7 Q+ d/ X+ H7 ]6 h3 b2 q
' m9 K4 h: D/ v A3 E2 p* c) q0 TFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
/ z$ I, o+ A2 _(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
1 T/ E8 N9 X0 z' X, y0 m" bhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html) ?& o- n7 X. i
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