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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
) g$ m4 L* T$ o) P% s8 p7 O8 l TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US0 x* S6 K+ z6 r* z+ M6 l* m
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern4 z- U, |8 f* }5 ~
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
3 W5 S1 ~7 E5 n9 b6 pTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
8 _1 E, _6 G1 Jand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more4 S7 o4 V8 F- n* t0 N" b4 ]% q
upbeat.) S) V7 P" a6 @9 C
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
# {& {, i3 D7 a! R7 ~, H" rannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects! O V# G6 K8 w7 M: b
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real5 U) a$ ^) C f5 @* U
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company2 L; t. q" ]; E2 s) x
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.% \# Y! d7 c+ ~- X
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
6 k+ q$ V0 W# u. B, }- s' x% tincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
; v1 V+ u8 o: c According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
% o0 T7 `$ N) | w4 {6 zReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
9 Z; P7 M7 B( p; j" Cenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to; q: g( S* \8 T1 J
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record% l! C; h n+ x3 E2 }
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
1 o/ A5 O! ^5 l) n& [ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
( G& d- A6 P; k2 a2 k/ G, [+ Hborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& ]; H) ?/ i6 }+ q) G Uspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
! m1 ]: a! y+ l" U4 Z- Fremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
+ e- h5 K/ u6 ?5 ^ Ycorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, m! t1 c# Y5 n+ |2 k9 M: V
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
7 R0 c& r3 Q7 L% H) } i9 [ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ j; k1 H/ n9 ^. i6 }! O
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by! y! q0 Q. @6 H
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
5 }% F( t L4 {, _0 Adevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
( x2 N3 v4 K7 H; Mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
2 E+ L' j- Z/ C1 _% rdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The- A2 n( e$ M4 X- P
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to* B& m# }. B( T0 s% N6 t9 e
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and, U% U9 v2 _: o* }8 Y2 e
single-family housing looks overpriced.
' \; T9 p3 }9 G) b7 h* O+ g Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: S, z( p6 Y% y% p# k% J( ?5 p
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian( `4 H" E# ?6 h$ Z `2 [
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
. R; ?$ p& v" ~( Hhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
+ A: r2 R) b$ n. @" Nnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
1 c' r5 E `0 v8 Jand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental- ~7 `4 `) p- w4 C+ R4 k* k( t; L
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary/ J1 c; k+ o7 M2 c
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing5 @# \8 E2 M0 x6 i8 j
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
+ J: r4 N' |- @6 }, p, vthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development# P3 ~( e1 I& W3 W, b) k& Z: L! o }
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., O v4 L1 _. R% `3 ~: W( I. `8 X
" N" s0 Q8 `0 |$ D4 n9 M P Canadian Markets to Watch$ t" j/ C9 r6 Z( q
( z+ o; r/ i8 u0 d9 M. r8 ~3 b The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central5 s9 U4 O! f4 w5 i z6 I
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
$ O5 d4 V, ^6 v# g( Eneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
4 s0 M3 R1 ]% L2 M2 T( S( ^ W! Binto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
6 r/ W5 }8 @3 t4 D4 n/ u- m+ W hdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical+ V9 V N }0 Q9 j; \
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 v& K" E- n0 G9 g5 ^/ |8 c
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment% H- N3 j4 ^" G
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
/ P. P/ o1 t4 J) c+ Ywhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
5 v$ ]0 }, s* s; J+ PToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
I5 `3 D: M* `! U& Xratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* M; q" a% G8 c+ Iboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
% O6 \& m8 G! _buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
+ p3 W% @* [) b T48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
5 @9 g* H8 c2 p4 H+ `Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
* W* B' Z! ^2 s, oHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the$ F2 L7 m5 @/ ^
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays+ v/ l# N$ s# G9 I" R, r
strong, this market will continue to do well.# f5 V, N x* j& m
1 b. z6 m0 s/ C9 i! w" ^3 h+ M% R4 D
Vancouver
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- C9 V) ?' P) w" [ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is7 H# A3 H/ \. J& {
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous7 O7 k5 g* A ` s' E
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
7 Y6 a- q% j# T( m# Z) qmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
0 j0 j8 M! \ b$ _. e3 T8 Jgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
; X: X3 q# E% C' u/ L6 G# x0 Yrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
5 V9 | _8 v/ I+ g1 nfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
3 c! R1 T0 r Hfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
- r6 M' u5 `. Ggood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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* ?; U+ c7 v8 {: } Toronto: C- _/ D9 n# b* y: J
$ {# ^4 s! O: c- v. M
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and" b" u8 G4 }4 L' D
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is) }. c7 w' B+ ?
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
* D1 G) b0 d4 f# iindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.% g) w* s2 O1 F- Q U8 j: }
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square% I. ^: B: K8 M, u
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
. k' {' F3 Y, v, S; `( S- tApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
# S- m y9 j- E
* V( u# M8 {* i" b4 B" k5 [5 B( } Montreal
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* ?! g& k6 r* Q$ Z N5 G5 s7 Q8 o! _ Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall* V+ T# `* w2 S, V, E( q2 s2 Q U; z: }
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up4 H. p' I9 V) g! a+ X
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
$ ~6 {& v# o5 s; Z# pCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; O. X$ w/ q$ r% n$ w# c3 r! K
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors5 d' g, [! B6 x1 n% i/ W5 u& k% R
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years! D* g8 ^0 L" b0 d( Z/ s5 M, J
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy4 _7 M' }& b! s! r$ M8 b" q5 P1 M4 K
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
# ~4 y" L# ^3 q0 o& Vnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
) h8 W; G! @8 d7 _. m! M9 goverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current' B: ]. R/ c/ P( y O
prices."
+ h z. h' n8 S: P) p$ [& u. b A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
7 M* M& @- K5 `. Xwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre. w% S) _2 ]& i- ~) T: ^5 ]5 F- y
+ K! F: [- s0 `, \8 e @' _
About PricewaterhouseCoopers5 r* c$ f5 A9 N" i& y
2 f! n7 p1 @6 w, |+ J0 B [
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
2 K; A- I* B& X4 ^$ i, b( T$ Gtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
2 D4 i0 k$ }+ ^# C: ~clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries. T, `% `- a$ E
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop9 x- E" d% @4 E! X: G8 U. C; ?: i
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ `: `* x5 K, w9 u% h6 C% C1 N
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
. V5 c7 ], @+ \' w; [) Vrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the! D3 m) v' ]9 Z9 S7 q- s
country.3 R- _; F9 ^3 b. |/ R
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
( V2 c. r8 v3 s4 b4 @7 Rlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
9 h. N. O/ F- `3 D3 V& rPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
5 b: D( d' {3 P6 x0 Feach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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' l/ S3 _* n6 F* n The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
$ c7 i! F `% `research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide4 b& j7 p1 }) S2 [ Q7 N1 ^
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
/ E- x: Z2 X, ^, ?thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
+ U1 P; L$ m! ^+ w, [ athan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development# A- U1 E7 H( A9 @2 p: \+ A4 K+ ^
disciplines.
7 F, W8 d0 T; q3 i a2 W# Y: s The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; s: x& r& |8 M4 _9 ?1 Y
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District. }4 W3 K: E2 |& D. R7 v
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is2 k6 i0 s- D2 \; s/ y) u& q0 D
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be: [( L: |8 ?3 d3 Z
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,( s/ _! q5 r# K' I; `
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
( T; b9 {. S- U: ` H8 O2 PHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 I% N' r2 B. I. h* v" \
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
`* h0 V0 r x/ ~call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
7 k1 X- ]( b7 M+ `the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.- J/ M. m' L u' \9 c
3 R# k7 V$ T$ E# A! w- A- q3 v0 q2 r8 M) j
4 m, U! M: \8 I
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
$ x! T. Z, E& p5 P3 E+ \- v6 w(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
9 v. e; X* F9 |. Xhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html7 B. K9 {5 @! s, t$ D1 g
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