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Attention Real Estate Reporters: : [% m( A4 N0 ?+ `! |( \
s I7 f6 s# ^Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
8 S9 B7 r( v' p/ | TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US4 ]( B; \8 V7 j0 w6 C5 r) g3 Q
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
* ~% ~8 Z# ?& Z4 f1 Qas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 L; ?7 u+ y4 a6 N- f/ yTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)" ]/ J* d/ z) A/ t
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more: @* s y+ c4 S
upbeat. _4 h$ B ^, o' A) Y( l I
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded2 r$ | h9 o5 a1 V
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; ~( x) r# \* k( {+ p
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real+ r; ]/ ?9 f( I; x# r; M
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
- X( ?* x% ~( a t0 G7 m" trepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.$ X+ j8 e: a( n/ N. N; J/ T! b
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world4 C& w0 ]. D$ T; r: A& Z0 T
including Asia Pacific and Europe.0 @. K4 j3 n6 L" B' h) u0 O
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian3 N; r, }+ }% w0 j
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
$ V3 i) c6 P( t; z7 r8 Z0 C, Uenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
8 [+ w; ~ G0 ]5 `- M# L' h6 ebe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record) j- h- ^8 X- o
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space." I' ?, W! h. A$ D, |, `1 p
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
! h. R( J, M: n, nborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
+ T. p. Q/ s+ ospeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey" ^0 i1 |6 p3 W* k. [% l3 Z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US% S! E" \& ?2 |; V7 K" e5 V; y
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be$ @# G) v! V% }9 x9 y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
+ k1 o% N5 F @2 m The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian4 O% S; k( y2 g
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
# i/ u0 N) P( Q ycommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
7 B7 R: b& M3 g# Hdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country V1 N6 ?5 p/ g, d: U
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
' {9 d: [" Q* z# Vdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
6 c7 D2 }% H5 e4 N, G, I. f6 C! eresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to* z' `4 q! u& C# Y: n' f2 O
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and5 x8 ^$ e, a8 V4 u' \2 b9 R0 o2 N
single-family housing looks overpriced./ \2 n5 y( m/ C- L! _
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ F# `; w, k' x5 s' ?; h
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian* M C. d! V- {/ }
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push g& L8 V! h( J6 k( P
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
, @$ q+ Y* e1 c( N# X, Q) }: l, jnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
/ V" |5 c+ C" f5 m6 cand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental4 q0 }0 y- j% e" ^
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary6 K6 K$ Q v9 M
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing: G# ~; u8 o* |+ ? V9 H/ B
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into r. |! a/ w; _+ i- ?1 c; C) h7 `: X+ K
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development H6 |! J7 ]6 ]: c& R5 T
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
7 f! A# X! Q! s3 {) P+ s
' z* J" j8 a3 U" \6 Y+ ^5 i% R Canadian Markets to Watch! {6 q+ K7 R: d" T) d9 P( r' q
( A) x3 a0 L7 a1 a9 n9 n
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
: [- ]- q: P$ a( y* h: r$ p# D' wcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour/ E, V# R# E2 m p$ ~" @! P, [
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back* L8 D* f& E& \8 r
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
: N- P6 e$ H% u- Q$ `5 n" C$ U rdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical6 I+ E3 H) p8 k$ g$ Z
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
5 H% i$ L0 ?: ^west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment& X3 t6 g% e0 @$ J* \' V" ~7 a
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
4 Z$ Q5 b& i; r1 vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.3 o, }4 ^& t% d6 R, {- i
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high$ `/ u' Y' F7 R( j2 f
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
! C6 A9 j9 s& p; |2 X: c* U; P
! v& U3 z3 B' A, \4 }0 x Calgary/Edmonton
6 o: r$ G9 A" M) N' p
: X6 k g) b; Z5 `( K; b Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: u5 ]6 s( _6 O3 u6 K& y
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a1 j+ V0 q3 S; [* ~) t ?
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,2 X2 L+ |% c) Z
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: s% _$ y7 O5 }Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale- E: h. y6 @( N1 @; L
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the( A9 U3 c6 ]) Q6 k! G% M- u
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
f* m8 f5 s0 T* ~strong, this market will continue to do well.3 g' t- v; u* I+ X# V
3 F+ f6 ?% Q! V0 x# w
Vancouver2 I2 k( P" y0 J
1 i. R3 J; Z4 p3 n2 m0 _
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is$ {! Q/ A( U. @8 [, T
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 T! o X1 q ]) g( V
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
/ X& }- {0 ~. s1 { Gmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) R: ~! Q; `0 I8 X! l" ^5 _! Kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
+ `. N# @6 J) Orecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%. |" y; f5 l3 R7 k
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
# g( B& E& h0 T, Mfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
/ ^9 s" ?" U' v2 _0 Y) Lgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.( c. G5 l1 E5 \9 L1 l
: Y' n$ |" _: c# u' t
Toronto; W, X: F9 C5 p- Y3 _
& a- l5 z$ J6 d2 }! J9 ?) X; Q
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
( f" n! d& Y6 q' S! wmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is- J0 z6 F! R5 G
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 B8 h* M" I! o- d
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
* r: W) i" K: B' ~5 x! }9 QThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square& V! ~4 p* _9 }- X2 j. f* U* Y
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
' J3 M# O. T0 B9 D6 }6 B' r: ZApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.6 e& j2 m) t& y- ^
4 S4 m6 ~. e+ |+ I% g& I! B
Montreal6 g- z9 r( z# {% X8 V
5 D* I8 ]8 {; j2 h! W8 u1 ~ Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall7 Z- o+ P }# S' Y
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) o% s' \! F3 v) hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in( G6 J5 ~+ T3 Z% Q; g
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate2 _# f4 C5 a+ d) @
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
5 `" N: ~ V, \0 bhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
6 w8 Y1 c3 e f6 D% h4 _
. B0 `0 U, s5 W$ s8 q$ G+ `4 V The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
3 i9 R) G) x5 d% ~include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
! z `% O, [( |2 J4 m; m3 L" nmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
' D) p2 z k9 w Snear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
6 ^/ ~4 U( S! n6 Eoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current" f3 n- K( |! {2 @ R( x, _2 ?9 y
prices."
# B5 Z' g6 f" [: |: ] A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
8 ^1 s# c. e/ J! }$ |www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre., S3 z: S: p+ n0 L4 {6 y
/ c/ r0 I9 o* o About PricewaterhouseCoopers
; o# E8 G. x7 O4 ~
3 |5 q! L3 z4 B9 Y. d2 i0 `9 a PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
* i& x' ]7 Q- Itax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its! n2 H W- l2 C+ v
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries% v$ q5 A" v/ Z( ]. a
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop5 _# @- z% o$ a% V9 k5 P" V
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of0 U$ H1 ^0 j4 K5 q7 K! s
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
8 D+ M' m/ i9 nrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the& k B% }% o L
country.. u8 j: o/ e+ t1 M6 e, T
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
+ Y4 j6 ^9 u% f, ]6 L: w. z$ ?limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; s2 t6 C) g) K. D+ c( X/ K$ b |/ a
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,; k9 e- E& F; z$ J+ ~
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.& ]5 F* e; A7 `0 ~4 i) g
8 }7 p0 L! z% I) l9 p
About the Urban Land Institute
. B( | Z2 {( C+ H1 X: Q7 e* l1 T) C/ n" @& A: p% c
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and7 g Q- t, O) A" F! U+ V$ R% t
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide2 D0 f" x/ i* v) P( G/ l r. y
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
/ ]: {& }9 G* v, v2 W2 Z% t1 B5 dthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more1 t' U. z7 m( q: T
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development. C: H- z6 s3 D# v) u
disciplines.
& K7 b& N' X' v5 E+ ~; F% j The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
4 u1 ` f7 ?. JWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District, h& h3 i( J) v
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is1 j9 N" O8 x5 k. Q7 c1 ?
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 q+ u0 a) {4 I7 Yhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,7 ]- \; G' b0 p: j3 g* \. j
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake, A4 _( l" _6 _$ `' I
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
4 Y6 q. a# m6 z, t# t, i2 u# _' XPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please& `: x1 n4 z- Q1 s% z3 P' i
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! L* b* g% @. W+ H. U! c9 Tthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
0 f! T3 x: E) X/ \0 o) c3 j9 \$ `' [' f2 K" u4 m
5 ?6 n7 H) e* q3 ?/ m# x) ]7 B2 ?& A3 {/ w. x% X7 I3 p' S2 {
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,, F. x" M5 N! M( ^+ R$ J
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com/ j0 V/ o; d5 H. z% B. }- `
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html2 b+ K" v5 A& p$ J) o4 M6 l' u, N( r
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