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Attention Real Estate Reporters: - P3 {3 H2 @' B* l2 l. l
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 i& ^* W- U4 B TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
" X* l. x$ \4 `7 N# S4 |) Vcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern9 T8 v+ G t) [5 {# d
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging4 I" y( H/ [' e8 }2 z
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
1 v1 b. m0 f1 [4 g$ @and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more- p# E/ J6 o/ ~
upbeat.
2 F( V, j; q8 m Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
5 ]" y& ^8 a4 I# V9 Fannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects7 A$ F0 I1 [5 _, ?/ u/ v
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
7 a l5 ^% [/ Q5 u" V; \* Bestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
E" c$ z' c3 I1 ^representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.+ @& m* h& o/ [1 r
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world/ l. D. y& M7 h
including Asia Pacific and Europe.) Q/ [4 i+ t' j6 n
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
7 N" r- t z4 U; F y0 }- `( c0 ^Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment8 g; b. s9 B0 s* z) d9 D
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to, `5 P' ^2 J- W$ S* u) Y1 R/ q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
: S2 X4 m7 L: \9 w. D& t6 ihighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."( }) g. M) F: l# x
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
" U' [1 G, N) R1 Pborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
7 d% P9 d) e9 ^speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey" ?9 R A3 n$ C- X4 z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 G: C! s: H7 o, h$ h# p xcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
* F6 Q& F8 x; K" L8 ?# V+ _% Qvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) ~& T h" Z- A( } The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian6 V$ N$ g. m/ Y# q( M3 I, w. Y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by9 N0 ~% J. `) _! t( a
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
- K) C- p9 [, m: `development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country e, w; k! L+ {8 Y* |9 @0 L& w
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating! j8 l A2 j8 ~- z! U5 u2 I
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
) P) p& e: Z- [residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to/ }$ X- M2 R5 O) J7 \6 G
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and! q6 B& g5 n3 k! G
single-family housing looks overpriced.
( j6 X1 K2 M! D) t4 x Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
, M. N. S- `# g% K) p& ctenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian6 p1 Z8 \9 O+ X( `; f4 Y) L
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push9 m, [* J r% B4 E1 K3 w9 u
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting/ p! m0 [9 A# l9 m
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,7 t6 A% u/ n. ^3 Q( m0 `
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental+ u8 Z' j9 \8 |
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
8 v- u$ i7 G7 |$ y7 ~western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
: ]2 v; ~; R2 l& _shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# S8 J) k# C& u
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
( o B# D2 B& ^0 N, Pin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch# z3 T: \5 m: l4 n, d4 u
* ^ ^* ]7 _* Q V The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
1 E* R4 C+ e& U& U6 U5 s8 @: Tcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
% R4 T3 M5 V, u2 `2 R! ? ]neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back" ?. a+ o- ~6 ?5 |: y3 o/ Y4 u
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in+ I/ \5 Y. }4 V5 B/ C
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) {) D& S y" u, G2 x4 g7 T3 t
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ X+ I7 _2 X! B* m5 e9 G8 s. vwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment% c& }4 m! e. r: ~5 ?; I4 G- E' E. b) q
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain: N) K: U) j- E J; `5 r) k
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.# r X* J4 ~7 y0 H; U0 q
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
; S+ Z9 f. g; b8 {) J) |0 Gratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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3 J ?8 F; E+ e; o$ E$ S4 r+ F Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ J* x2 A, `$ }1 C0 Nboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
+ {. D3 x: q( {6 rbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,, w; T" q6 z7 t! R5 i0 E
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: R! ?/ S8 a. U3 dFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale) b) x3 y4 V S* }7 Y
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) R# u- y* P9 T, D) D
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays- c7 @* X t; G; a8 ~8 b9 R& B: o" I
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver3 s1 }1 ]. G8 d
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
2 K; E" R- X) D4 @* T+ pbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
% m* Q; K: F9 w3 Hreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
& q3 I, z2 |7 j" N3 G, c2 _2 hmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
\" J) X% n+ Z; Dgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
+ b! o5 u7 l6 S% X6 d8 trecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
3 a [% S; q+ `- {' u) B& pfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
* ~1 ?1 ^1 u- u) R6 Afor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
/ T f; v+ A0 C, G U+ Cgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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8 g/ ?- W, @- w2 g- t3 o" o7 B Toronto) L3 F) t$ Z, B+ W
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and4 p- ~! z- S6 C3 Z0 j
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is7 B3 x/ ]2 }) j) a0 B4 `! h% @
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
; L5 R+ W' A# @' X7 s O$ |1 Lindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. _7 M) x6 l4 U; ^1 H/ X3 }
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
8 H5 q/ P9 V/ J) h9 X, \1 s3 wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and& l2 r$ o6 K1 y, M' O. }
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.# y9 K6 z1 g0 q( ~% l
4 I, ?* a& C' o8 Q6 r
Montreal
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" @2 k$ }, @" i: G Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
: g( Y ?4 K4 r! [+ igrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: X$ D* `' x, V' N4 ]$ @, C; }1 ushop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in" T" M5 f) y6 _# V
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
5 N8 e4 ?3 p7 m1 _sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
: U- G* U3 \" Z/ T9 b, Y5 Whigher as a "hold" recommendation.
5 N! e: j! N! Y! ], J9 H; Y$ R3 k
2 ^! L5 L0 I; e$ b4 \: K& ` The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years9 L8 w9 s( m' ~2 G" l1 V
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' C% ?% _, g8 T G
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
) H: ?: k) m0 R: I! K# `2 N1 `. C" q8 Qnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
. Y4 |& \3 R3 C# V/ D! s8 _4 |overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( T7 h7 d$ I& q- q2 C. e3 rprices."
9 U5 z2 j `- ] W1 [2 e& s A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at+ n" [1 N: R1 y' t
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.* O5 w3 k5 G1 ^* ]
3 G" Q* A X" \' z! _! K5 B About PricewaterhouseCoopers
! E* n* k- n1 I( N, L6 m5 l2 J+ b! u8 n$ N: \: Y# x0 m l2 {
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
4 `$ M! l. y, r8 `* Y- M" Ftax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
% \3 ?& G* G. Q" Y/ S0 Dclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
! |& } s, D6 o2 u5 ?% Iacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop$ {1 T7 n) C0 Q$ ?
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
1 {: o" M5 Q% e6 [' Y) `excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
( Y$ M& R: V( T& M( _! Z0 ?* i. x1 krelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the4 G6 Y9 J. Q# `. a
country.
k( t( A, b5 s9 u ~( ] "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 {' U% Z2 U' |
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the! _6 h( J0 s4 y% c0 T6 h4 A
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
9 b3 A2 x) S6 ^: eeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity., Y o& a' U, p
- Z; p! N" Q. K" q" n* s" O6 b
About the Urban Land Institute# E' i7 R5 P9 Q0 m" S+ z: a' Z
( B H6 ]4 |1 P# @ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, c8 l6 n" p7 d- T7 z
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide% b4 C* T U% M
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating0 F- n( f6 C! u* ]0 }5 E% B
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
( M, _# F/ ]* y' D0 O2 r& Sthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
6 \: Z) R% k% ~( |disciplines.
8 i9 X! `' [- P, H8 }: M# b The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.7 P7 Y+ v# F3 }6 m' ^" t* o
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District4 |& m9 ~9 _& z2 j n1 X& B
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is" m2 v4 _5 R, _% ~: K. _7 m
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be( W+ D6 N6 |) h* B4 h0 [+ L
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,! A- f" M: g; r* O1 i e% H
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake1 `8 M! ~: g C6 ?
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
! w' i( L! x& f9 F) c# Z3 r8 f IPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please* m+ k5 q, j, V' n" m
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on! H: @% H. X6 ^0 h" H
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
! ?7 F' {# h0 n6 j9 M4 I- m5 U8 Y! c# E4 U- V$ s
3 _6 d: j9 W5 ^3 r6 V. N7 a3 X2 _6 T2 \8 t' F% r" \! T
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
# y% a3 |- ~- S+ ]* B0 ]' c(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com; A% k" t# F# G- l/ m
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html2 y6 r4 A9 Z7 D9 K
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