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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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$ a, f# U# L2 r* NDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
# s% J7 G* _9 ?4 R TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US+ F4 I. W* b9 o) u' I
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
$ Q& n% x: y/ l. K% `! S- n- _# Was the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
5 o7 T' |5 Z, ^# g/ W" GTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
6 {$ C: w6 ~7 y2 d, Land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more4 F( O3 S) n! F: U5 C8 O
upbeat.2 H2 Z/ f. U. _2 }
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
2 l$ Y7 ~1 k8 g* C0 ^annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
! R+ q& S5 C! O M: b) B4 d; y6 O- Iinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
9 V2 I" l7 U7 u- V2 I. b, Q |estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' ]3 _ t$ r4 X( h" M2 z ]" srepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.) S+ ~. k# |( ?: K& u
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
# |6 T6 |: y9 j0 _ j6 d$ nincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
. H, }( z& m6 ] R* G According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
3 f y. i3 I7 f b6 [# lReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment& \1 T6 a8 b6 O. b: o% H* L) v- T
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
9 W6 U$ u R$ Z* ?' G9 ebe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
- c B( |1 P$ Mhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."4 |# M* Q/ L6 ]5 X/ y) u
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
) Q2 g, N9 d; h% P1 bborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game/ b) G$ k4 b6 z; p
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey7 d7 V, U( X) X* A2 G% u- C
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US: O6 `' r" L8 q
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be Q) B) s' c4 r! h
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.7 O8 ]. I9 H1 A- M& Z
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian: s% Z$ b" Q7 d
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by/ s; W5 _3 `, e
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
9 p' ^( ], N, B) ^; Zdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country3 f9 x) i/ d; G' T& G, t
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# D" s2 V% E: i7 x# P; jdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
/ L" `% J% n% w7 C5 i+ t9 dresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
& U+ I7 ~2 w* J+ z9 r( _ Gtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and' X$ D5 C6 b- ^; W1 b- _: c8 Z/ j
single-family housing looks overpriced.
/ P e2 A) a4 C# _! G Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
. D. N; j9 \9 _# W( Dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian$ W" P& r. ?- l7 {2 C3 u
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push, H; s+ W2 Z1 V( q- i
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 f P/ A ]7 c' [' O. u8 q' unew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,( Z/ t* B: I( m
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
: c4 k) B; G/ P- f0 q s5 aapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
/ I" u* V/ l* ~3 `! I) D/ x1 h1 Cwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
) R( Z6 y4 F, Q5 Kshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
: V3 r9 z( @$ G% H% z; ithe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development* T( x5 g+ A8 N+ }4 q
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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! x6 t, F. x% o Canadian Markets to Watch4 M! h, `( q6 f t2 o* D. D
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
6 e! ], ?' |5 i# a2 u0 ~cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour1 p, c4 \% _& ^( ?5 ?: T: F
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back, o* g# g. p+ c
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in4 \4 k' V- z f! R |/ ?; E( M
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
* G% \) b8 {; ?; C) K" b2 }projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 R* v5 N9 @( @; b2 l
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
! f3 a2 h& X2 g ?prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; W" t, r v$ O& w" z2 d5 Mwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
6 x/ |; l9 F4 S7 F5 s2 TToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
& |9 n1 v0 L& Q, {( v7 Jratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 g9 O l7 O* t- b/ {0 w. R8 o, J
+ g5 h; Y1 t6 X9 p
Calgary/Edmonton
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2 x- J* N, y, ]7 t+ \ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one7 ^- D9 N6 a+ G; g
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a' B6 Q6 k' ?, Z+ _; i4 F
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
: Y! n% `0 c$ h+ ?$ k48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.7 L" \' M+ \8 j7 Y+ B2 p
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
7 A' W* y. v1 N3 A. EHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the. L6 Z- w8 F! j2 F
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays+ @) e1 ], S/ Q/ Q+ U0 ]$ j
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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+ ?9 `6 `5 J, x2 H; t2 {$ s Vancouver
7 F& [" A. O' W4 F3 \
, k& L* E3 i3 X1 {1 `' w, g2 W( V Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
/ f% ~3 ?& ]2 M* r* bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous5 n, G0 G% |+ v; v* L5 S
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the8 Y0 i7 V$ V; r
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
5 ~8 _4 R1 [) D' `/ t- `+ t) P' Kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
0 d0 @8 ^7 d, f. s% I1 Crecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
" H9 R4 L+ T; t; ^8 r# y8 h8 ^4 ffor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
! d9 d, G& I( Jfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
* h& g9 G$ c- i7 s# kgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.3 p8 _- _6 X: W$ l, D- E
3 m. V; P& z3 [, { Toronto
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" a' f4 _- T! Y F Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and3 C6 X1 p: e$ s3 A t0 s! C
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is1 [0 c7 ^+ H3 i _$ ?7 F
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
1 T3 j1 i& y$ e+ x$ Oindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
8 x0 t4 F) l* U! h' b6 Y' oThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
# s' s8 I1 P/ |7 G3 p, {/ [' e0 W z0 N& bfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and* h% H1 G8 @' w7 L6 y- P5 X1 Y
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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# J* k: { _2 N3 H# k0 Y2 q Montreal0 {/ O+ C6 f& x! j. D
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
( W5 b2 |6 u9 @# P* p- bgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 [! A. n. n: w; l. gshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in* e: k9 l5 _, \: [- Z% i% X
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
, k, ? Q7 `, Q7 @. q9 Wsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors5 B( R( e. y6 R- L( F
higher as a "hold" recommendation.5 E5 G; Z, W5 q# b- _7 H
, n4 X* |' U$ G2 r: O( j& e" l0 Q The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
& v4 N4 h% |5 G, O Jinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy1 I, f2 ^' `3 G4 N
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
4 [4 N7 } C1 V7 y, j% I O" l: {7 f; }9 vnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
5 e+ Q$ h& |4 A1 j7 I% e! }overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
" S7 T s, @# o! t' K0 i- J5 aprices."2 Z: f% ~; T( h' q
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at3 ^% _8 j, w( H% M
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
& D+ a8 i" \# {6 j+ F- R) b
) m. _) M9 e" V$ T PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
8 J8 S" }+ Q, p/ v* A# Qtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
/ L6 H' ?( l. u7 H4 X# T. d) |clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries/ y2 P. {5 G, U c' ?; G
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
1 ~- u4 S% S" j4 F( v, |( nfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
9 |/ y7 H4 v0 yexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
" B y' H7 L& D* H Qrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- U( }0 Y+ `" U. d# s$ N
country.
3 R4 Q" e% ?; B' d! P' z1 F2 B4 R5 n "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( A% p6 f; ^1 F! y- W
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
: q7 V9 L% a+ u- g* ]5 M# ePricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,, v" ^" V/ R' Y9 p, b# w3 W! W7 F
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
7 K0 [( [, a; {, R+ Y# z; ~9 i7 I
About the Urban Land Institute3 |1 d" D8 e# x! M; w
! ~3 L0 e" g. C8 g8 ^9 K; n The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and2 q; @# p8 B! j* T' [6 ]3 h
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
: x9 C4 ], m2 o) O" Nleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
4 P1 t! {" ]/ }8 n W$ kthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
# B) {# ~! j9 lthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
4 O% O/ ~/ c$ q, z* R j0 ]1 Q, adisciplines.
: o5 k! {9 h- V }( T, e: g The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.* R. S3 Z$ K; N: S$ Z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District+ O% T" q& [& u# F6 U3 @$ H
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
3 W! Q$ N4 Q T4 Dnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
. S$ c r( Q$ u0 Y) Q6 xhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th," _. g; r. ?: ]( ~
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 K$ j) J6 @6 A# Y# u+ r* i9 _Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,. x! }5 H% V4 B
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
, @- p, ? O5 [9 a7 \( T6 Vcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on( `! w4 T% g- H5 B8 A @
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.% V+ J( Q2 F% c$ W
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; j) D9 E( A2 T+ l7 K& h4 S oFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,, P. m: G1 \/ R
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
0 J" s0 Z4 t1 o7 ~http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html" b" L* J6 E w' B2 Z
; ]1 O3 N7 s3 J* I, C[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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