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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ; ?4 A1 q$ S8 |2 e$ t1 }
% j3 w2 E' z' c$ l, a) a) z9 h/ m4 PDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 2 b" G6 L! R# i8 K6 w, X: e
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US* ^. z6 |4 Z+ ^3 q6 a- k% q
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
( o l5 T& Y" m* g1 Las the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging( o$ C. d" j9 ?: ]1 z# p" I
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 r2 Q' c( j. r; v
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more" O9 j _5 }# C' `" P
upbeat.( i) W! r, {* k: v+ q2 o
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded) P8 R2 u) A) t: b. N
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
; t5 ]% v5 y% d; {7 _4 Iinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
9 g! u3 ?! w6 Q: e$ P# eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
# \$ g: {- Y0 M% V0 ^8 |& f# brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
( C, H; n1 X$ e3 K# V# v- rOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
1 j0 F" C! i/ H5 d5 W5 tincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
0 p) F1 x R+ v: S' k According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
2 G G* W' H* q7 n/ f) h2 N9 NReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment0 {) F' h% k0 q4 k3 v, ~3 j
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to8 z6 d% Z) \$ T
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. n. c' o. ?/ E- Y" Yhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
: k! Y; s+ \' L/ ~% I According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
+ ~0 i4 J- Y& M e7 y7 bborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 B7 O' G" k6 `8 @9 Y6 Wspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
2 r9 U; ~. H1 c" h: Jremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) s: Z8 z! E* C7 @: c) c# y" H2 g" qcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be7 ?8 j6 {9 q+ s a* [) k
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.. I; l- z- O& ?' T4 U# a& j/ H
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian* h3 U" h7 @% s ~0 c1 r, \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
- N5 S( E& c# U( K: Lcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
* Q l6 M/ E, d7 Idevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 y1 e0 @4 m9 }
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating- I8 ]: ?0 b6 n+ T) K
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
7 e- w/ |$ a5 L* Q `; T0 q7 Nresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
& R4 D& b+ p# S+ X/ W6 l3 vtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
4 p% S+ m- f! }$ N" I% x( fsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
" B2 X6 t5 @" a" d4 |1 P Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ t3 u& R0 ?% N( e+ G- o$ I3 b
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian, }, ?+ x' X# y- N; b, M
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push. v7 m" Q/ T, G0 Z! V; p
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
/ k' C6 n: N" d) q: I# fnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
4 t; O* ?1 y/ X- t5 ^0 ~: |and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental+ `* a4 f6 n3 N F3 @/ @2 L
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 q( U* q# e# b; g2 k, U {
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
' k0 u; m! [0 f! r. kshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
7 J! t5 R/ {0 cthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
' X E1 }, Q' @+ i9 V4 ?& Min other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.& d& \* b* i+ y6 [& p9 c
5 Q' l& R8 R$ Y) t* M# H
Canadian Markets to Watch8 b6 `8 m6 x4 |2 a- U
) `: J6 I- h/ [# A/ ]0 g7 W7 |2 g
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central/ e2 N. R6 U- `& M' v+ I' c7 u
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour* [% @/ j# s0 @5 F' b. k
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
1 j8 I& r* c/ c. I" L" Ginto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, E+ Q1 M! O. ?' ?. u
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
5 h# k) {: w5 z. b, `projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' Q$ s& D- T9 K2 V1 n
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
/ a) N- \* \* W0 ]prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
/ C' i% ^4 i: U7 h0 W$ o2 Q! `whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
9 R! Z. H8 d* SToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
0 g$ x# e; s& z/ B7 _* g- C0 c& {( Yratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.; F! p# }# ?% S9 e3 {, [/ m
' y ? W5 F4 W5 D9 Z Calgary/Edmonton
/ F* Z3 u# y5 ?% g; ^$ u* w, r% F' @' w: \. O
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ A% O' g: j1 ~1 uboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
! f! e. Y# Y1 a4 D( O) }buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# c$ m c# t7 s7 ^" B
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
, W5 S3 K2 J: e/ h1 _Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale! M" D6 E! I* d
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the" q# O: ^7 K. M1 ^; [" M+ G
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
7 M; k& V% G% L, o8 [9 k, ^8 Zstrong, this market will continue to do well.# X! V) |5 R. x' Z& A7 t8 J/ X
) a. \3 X, _& z. w" `; h Vancouver/ q3 Z% a, \2 s8 W& `8 ]% Z5 }
- A+ E* Z9 s6 a+ S6 ~ y
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is9 j& D ]' z; L
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
# r" } u/ D4 J" u$ l2 v2 Areal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
\( [: a! O" y/ v1 a: V/ Y& Emarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ s$ U {" }0 V
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
! C. c; ^) ~) ` j9 [recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%6 ]8 B8 C6 U) Q: a5 |
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%6 t, K3 D; ^; H3 ]: r9 V
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
# z( p3 m1 J, ^- ^$ ngood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
$ y" n9 `( s$ V) u
) K& Q& I# o+ [/ H Toronto' D/ J, f( _( S5 \! K3 O* I5 F
0 S7 W8 S( E6 Z' g
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and. U3 X, w) g6 u" ?
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
0 u% ^) B$ W/ P [relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing S) y- \4 k3 B" m8 V- M) L, E
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
' e5 \( N: u& D/ rThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
" U0 s5 c; P. r% Tfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 Q$ j ?1 N& p3 v; g9 I! yApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.% `8 p$ ]8 |2 T. s8 b
3 j0 ^# E0 O( J) j) E1 t2 d3 W Montreal
# C s% B4 c9 r6 V, ~+ K* X% v8 @( F% R5 @ t
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall0 L: |; K) f0 i2 W8 a. U; J
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
$ c9 P, U Q% A; |! G& v5 Yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in+ @* Q3 N9 R% [4 e+ k* v# U8 s
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
6 |" d* V/ o% {sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors1 c$ \; p% z& [- p! L% {
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
; [" A% g: g9 ?* R. n4 L( ?7 [7 O/ E6 L! U6 P6 W! K3 C+ K
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 C% ~9 d) t% S, K& Y) ainclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
6 V: A) N3 K5 A. P4 r9 U2 ? bmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos- R4 C& ]# W! I
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest/ R8 H, v! l5 T3 _% N
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current7 l5 |' j2 Z. F
prices."" a ^) X- H+ H
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at7 `- p' e7 o# b4 [; T
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
! O& @% y! T: }) N$ ?7 @' q8 c. K. |3 K
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
" v4 n& W- F4 n# B
+ ]! ~: A: J. d/ @+ y PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,$ {9 v& [& ]; Z4 U
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
+ q* ?8 f9 A5 T2 @# n( qclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
; f* q. P X- \) j9 @& {( E6 zacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
4 J! z! o0 q; I7 R8 t6 R' Efresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
+ Z' Q n8 {# x/ G/ Oexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 w2 i( q9 a, S& d& t( d. g) m6 [
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
# d' L: w1 w2 f- u! ?+ K8 dcountry.0 V: @) F7 Q; v% i
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
; t( w5 G; O: S4 k7 }, \" flimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
3 b; l, j& ^9 M+ xPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
0 ^2 H3 U' d, @( n6 s' `each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
" G; ]8 Q7 g$ ~& d6 c# Q8 L! X: h8 e5 v# ^
About the Urban Land Institute
2 I% e& B, U5 h( t
! p0 y- f; f- O9 u The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
- [# |" x6 Q5 z3 A; \, G. xresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide" D* l2 S( c6 R2 j& p Y e( d# S
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating& v/ X6 h% O* l; I H' X- d
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
# a- Y O, B% G0 ?5 `0 p$ y3 |than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development0 [( ?; ^0 @ U5 Q4 m
disciplines.1 ]7 \: i( W+ u+ S6 g! F9 O
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.4 j; V2 f6 n. k7 t- d/ c0 H
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District2 }+ i) U0 Q/ b8 P4 r o& z
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is8 c( q u! x1 M; L3 q' j: A
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
& t# }3 p6 {; Y. qhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! I1 @8 u1 t' e* i8 o* l2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
% I' Z5 I2 h$ d! r! I% cHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras," C" Q! Q$ C% q; `
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
/ ~% c, m+ f- K, v; f! Z& Scall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
$ J8 V. k' q* |& ~4 B- rthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
( O! m0 Z# F3 i+ g" `7 Y: E. d9 ~1 }
4 D t# ]: j/ J4 J6 I
( \! g8 h) G& l9 J5 rFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
( ^* O; w: t* g% ~( }(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
: C. j' m2 a8 Mhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
& ?3 Q; u3 \0 w. C
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