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reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty over done

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发表于 2007-10-26 07:47 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Look for buying opportunity in Suncor and Canadian Natural, Citigroup says
/ m! v; m$ q! B: VThe negative after-market reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty changes for the energy sector appears overdone and may present an opportunity to buy some names in the sector, says Citigroup analyst Doug Leggate. : L; m+ e# a1 `" V& X, J+ w
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He recommends keeping an eye on preferred names in the sector like Suncor Energy Inc. (SU/TSX) and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ/TSX), but admits there will likely be a strong response to any change from the industry.
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This view is partly a result of oil prices. Citigroup has a long-term oil price assumption of US$60 per barrel, which means the changes are not considered material enough to warrant any alterations to its earnings or target prices.0 d5 K6 n7 X, P* f0 {( ~

) E: x/ c# x7 u& ^) @5 oAt first glance, the proposed regime looks significantly less onerous than feared, Mr. Leggate said in a research note, adding that with US$55 oil, there would be no changes to his assumptions.( r/ y% K7 M9 G; h$ h
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There would be an impact with prices at US$100 and the royalty rate increases on a sliding scale with a cap at US$120 for WTI crude, he said, adding that the sector is discounting prices below US$60. 8 L  t3 m) ^, S. S: @4 w

' E, ~! U9 r- g% a“...Versus the level of oil prices we estimate are currently being discounted in the major Canadian oil sands players, the impact on valuations looks benign,” Mr. Leggate wrote.
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. X" Y3 [; M  x4 oSo while he acknowledged that the new regime gives away some upside, the analyst thinks plenty of core value remains with investors.
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