Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
# p' A& z9 Z7 \: |Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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' _* t9 M$ Z7 z! ]- @Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
2 Q. [5 `# h8 G- b1 E  I. u( y2 j
7 P* G. m; x- i2 f6 C% e/ y+ {. JSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

5 y5 v" z% x( t0 J* I% A  [% Z6 AAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

! k$ ^. m. l, p8 ~7 MJul 2007
NA
' k: B) y0 K% ?# D7 @ 2328
+ R7 Q9 A2 G  h& `9 j 717
9 |- h3 O9 y. `# x2 I# X+ C 442,752
$ W' x2 U: f5 \; \; @0 `8 t 410,000
  M9 v: X  k# z+ Y' W 320
! I$ S- S/ O& b 28
31%

Jun 2007
, w: X7 W3 ?* u' z! T NA
8 s8 K! |5 H# o/ n4 Q1 a 2661
1011
' b$ U' `% B- T0 g& ^. ]5 l8 X 442,817
409,000
328
22
- l" c$ r' l4 ^: g1 b" o7 C 38%

# i* ^6 \& r& |# [May 2007
) {6 e* N4 D  I3 U% { NA
2288
1261
7 {4 X+ @) b6 ? 451,216
415,000
2 m9 [  x" c: W* k4 h 322
3 L# V# ?$ g0 _+ v* j2 j1 Y  X 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 P' r9 q* Z4 Z1 s$ h鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
) D' h# t% N/ w& K, g存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# L0 e' n9 v% ]2 p* K# i& h用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
, z" x1 G8 V$ Q9 ~2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
# L4 m2 X% N' P2 i3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
- s+ u; M4 s7 p7 Y鉴定完毕！

& A8 s' y5 E4 a5 Q) ^1 G9 [呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
: J/ N4 _; x; Q; N" T
1 D# n6 c. v, h2 T就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
* ^  t! d& J; P. X, b9 Y9 ~
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; e, a8 `) Z# s/ O4 Q4 `" r$ ODon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, l  T( f5 `4 T% m  S0 |
% p0 b  k- s+ Q& H5 u* V

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
) u8 w: k: C5 M: e$ e9 l3 D( v: kDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 O# r4 P, O+ dHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
' @4 `& n3 o/ n: ?0 P# jgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
2 M" _# H+ a- a  t* e7 V% {: Z! I* D5 ?Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
. o) _4 M1 I' FNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

2 j7 W0 l! P" D5 s% a2 Z# E1 f
7 D9 r% Z/ x- p' f5 b, NI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


* e4 a4 n$ @+ S5 y
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。