Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* z: M! l! U( ?+ d: A+ c; mMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' S! R/ f+ B% u% F' YIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
  L$ |) x9 Q% `0 m2 t# m
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
! P- `6 n( m# [) F+ J! E
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
) @4 [/ j; z# [9 z- Z; J& I/ i; h
5 T" z" f# E; S4 A8 Y( U* m0 P5 U' |Jul 2007
- A5 d/ Q' _. f NA
2328
, t5 U0 i% _6 P: A1 X1 e" P 717
442,752
! ?0 ^& J  s( N3 p 410,000
320
28
31%

. k2 [0 P0 g, z4 B) q- l9 wJun 2007
' y  E1 a+ g% M$ a' t$ h NA
1 A2 M/ j9 C. L 2661
1011
442,817
409,000
328
: W" y; R9 `0 Q6 ~ 22
38%

, s4 H7 T1 s1 ~& x. J) {+ B# aMay 2007
NA
" D+ g9 H6 v8 \/ Y: J) Y+ W2 g 2288
1261
  q# |+ U5 V" ^& ]( A 451,216
415,000
322
19
$ X' a& D: F; ]+ \5 O1 G( q# Z 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" n# a4 O# y' x) f9 f/ h鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
' |4 b0 o3 u' G6 C这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 P6 ~5 }- L& {+ {鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; m+ ?  t1 U* n0 S3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( }# p3 t6 m5 I存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

$ b4 I) d( B3 j2 \& E% Q( J
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

5 `" x, K" G$ z" Z9 p就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

. ^* m' s  o; H- B* o% |  i这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; x: v! \6 r% tDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

8 k, x0 w7 c: o( c4 b

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
* V! ~& Z9 [0 u. H, r/ [* }' b/ GDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
0 Y' \6 Q9 t8 k$ uIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
3 `8 P% c$ B% B( Y  qIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

) }& K" V) I$ m$ h5 y: C- I# XI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
; r" L3 E0 E4 M0 [1 |6 l  jMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 W" Z1 Y3 O! J  k! h# z9 \: fNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

, }4 h. H* W# G3 N3 ]QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

- X% ^7 V& z% Y; I

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
% X# e: V* `% }# \9 V# q1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' |( n0 c1 j- e, B4 x0 A3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: k% i9 W# ?! m2 _: S5 i
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

8 |  T2 Z$ x+ q  D' n# h
6 r4 E& k* H; _$ X: [: p! @% s
8 i9 Y4 W+ H  c; Q只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。