Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
' q9 d' C3 O0 U) \; FMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
  D( O+ \- f/ S* n) Y2 b* a4 BNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

# s3 [& F  f' U: I% @9 fDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
# M+ Y* U3 p& l( z6 i2 y$ ?2 e9 A
9 s0 U. G1 W7 Y5 Z  b/ C" OOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
5 ~" L0 g  G1 C# ]2 }# a( Z4 [
2 D( a) h3 w& z! n5 WSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

/ Z$ f5 X- H- N! E% q, lAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

% F. C; |8 H5 d% R' kJul 2007
NA
8 Q2 G( N% v# g' }/ X 2328
717
442,752
+ }0 }8 Z, ~' q; k5 N 410,000
320
  Q: n+ z6 y: @0 x5 Z) N# | 28
8 u" B% s# W3 } 31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
8 r( P6 j/ w0 f0 ^- k2 ]( e 442,817
409,000
328
) E) d" M6 E( m( _$ K/ r' M 22
) m- E" `5 C, ^& ` 38%
$ y5 O& k( z: @: a9 K7 E9 c
: u3 J/ ]8 d; z6 q7 m/ i4 A) `May 2007
NA
2288
1261
4 }1 ?2 J% H) O- { 451,216
415,000
2 u! h9 S5 x# z% E9 @- l 322
8 H2 x* ~1 Q- a: e9 R1 L; }& T7 m 19
' a0 Z! l* P2 j' L 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
+ T8 q7 Y  M4 b% O这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: _2 T& f$ v! R% Q存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

* c4 u3 v! w9 B0 C6 E$ o* e7 `# `
% H; i3 o0 T9 Q4 A' ?; b用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
4 {2 W& _4 n7 k2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
. ]. J% d! x! y6 P, x# ^3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ W( p. b& @- K: h( K2 [存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

2 j) [& t; ]7 |8 T; O2 v. \" V
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

" a) N  \, |. R, h. U这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
: Y. `! I! T, {5 I$ mDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

8 B5 h! ?- w& i/ U$ [0 O. i

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 c* @2 s$ y& n  `' [  qIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
6 `" D# |! P- Q2 S$ q9 igood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
, a9 H* n3 C  [  FIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

8 n& \: ]1 W; k. c9 f% U( {
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
1 T6 a5 y, o2 J! ~/ b  QEdmonton Single Family Home
2 k  ~1 J, q( F+ k1 Z$ UMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
/ a! r. n4 R; nIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
) g& s8 K" U9 S# `+ V0 GNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
2 O; t, S, W9 S! n. G# e: }
2 P! \/ J$ w2 M' {' ]
4 Y7 J+ t$ y: v. @% W% f( Z4 e& PI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* W! z1 \5 A+ q$ T1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
0 t7 y% g& ?/ ]! k9 W' E3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

3 R$ L- I( j" v7 u8 [
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


3 {/ H- r. g0 ]
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。