Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* h6 y4 W) X$ ^& V! w0 C. [# {, OMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
8 }& m7 H3 x/ h* P2 p8 c/ ^  C
8 n) j0 ~2 `* Q8 L- sSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

; \: x- P; b9 Q; C! x2 jAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
! D& G! v/ I8 |/ H! g" y8 `- g
Jul 2007
# d# ^; \9 T( j* [0 K NA
. x( g  t$ j3 C+ N; a 2328
0 i6 \/ w$ T0 H# b6 [1 M 717
' G& j$ a6 U  y 442,752
410,000
( s" T$ F" r) j* _5 k 320
28
% V" O6 B& a2 B7 @0 r 31%
# m/ j( [* q$ }+ w" R% {
, o- h2 W$ T2 HJun 2007
NA
  ]3 P3 P' G! R7 l8 q 2661
1011
" ~# }5 c% L) Y* c" i9 U  Q 442,817
3 k5 H  s0 c5 w 409,000
328
22
8 S% |8 q/ q  T, m- d 38%

( ?- O- C1 l$ i* v* ZMay 2007
NA
8 G8 u4 b7 A; C7 z: Z! y( m 2288
1261
451,216
, I' }: M- s  n9 U) m3 S  m 415,000
! N9 H+ [$ H! g! p' E8 f6 j/ @( P 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 j" n8 g; |6 C* y/ \9 V鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
  S+ q  y0 A8 m" W  R, E存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) w' N. U9 P# Q2 m1 v" u鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 N6 A" v/ |: o9 [/ U$ ]! @3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# v2 T* w2 I5 y# n! E
$ N* L, D0 U" I$ n呵呵，太不专业了吧。

; b1 E, V2 D8 @; {) Q4 `新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
. ]/ a5 N' t  H) I- u
- b; c3 {- C' D5 E- [就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

, H( T2 u7 p  ?! `0 l3 G这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

6 `* U, F. v8 r: x! N$ {

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
6 H/ D3 n+ b+ I' mDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

1 D! [& M# |2 F

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
( t, d4 g; G7 U# OThat is what i say half full or half empty.
$ S$ \( W5 B; B' p$ x' }% ]( }good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
, Z" G1 F8 A; N' G( KIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 L$ B4 O& u5 U- c+ m/ GIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% x, a/ m( e. K  M
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
( U) ^( G# b! Y- |Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
6 V8 j- z( S% r! f$ X5 M

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

4 F3 E* n7 O' R( I  S+ w3 F1 G. C

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ s" ~. }+ W1 M5 b% N, H2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
. O: N" R$ B0 N1 U' o1 h% Z# t3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

7 M+ C7 O- h, [' w/ N- d
( J9 b, G: i7 P+ R" o下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
+ N& d7 E, {$ T! m" p
$ y/ A# _/ r" {" C* i! m
) M4 D: e" v5 ^1 \1 E4 B! D1 ]. T
* }- R8 K, d9 j! e  O4 J3 H* X只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。