Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
! x- ?+ C2 K+ X8 q8 \* f! wIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
9 l4 P2 T9 c' c' A- Y% W
( P* c; }4 R8 [* M0 A: q' IDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

2 H$ D# N  N. m) l3 ]3 j+ S+ c$ KOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
3 K4 M( U% |* G) m4 \
2 u9 H' m/ D8 [! L, B1 a& {Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
. c+ P  c) h+ E' g
, n* h8 ^: G8 |7 fJul 2007
NA
5 l' F+ D; Z2 l% V6 a4 r1 _ 2328
717
2 G3 X' `$ M& E! t1 m# s 442,752
410,000
320
28
31%
7 {1 a! H4 C! N: @. t
( U  D. ^7 C1 i9 E, NJun 2007
NA
2661
1011
" w5 y4 t4 H! J3 F 442,817
" l4 }/ J) V* f. |( K 409,000
" j* f" }- f7 X0 R 328
22
8 P1 t! h- z, H6 j4 k 38%
  ~4 `4 x0 P6 v3 b" c
3 I+ G& A7 W! }May 2007
NA
2288
  R2 {9 v/ K  p* o' @7 J 1261
451,216
415,000
9 H! u  V* |; O 322
* q3 y6 |1 H9 \0 o! e 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
7 U$ c( W/ Z4 J" s这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
2 r0 |5 s( w+ b- P+ J; s0 n存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

& E  N# g& x) g2 p  L# I用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
" e1 J4 o5 f! H/ M) E) x2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

$ G. m' ?3 n; v% M
6 ~9 ?) ]( t2 M% r# |2 B" u呵呵，太不专业了吧。
2 a1 P; |7 U/ O7 |$ c* T
& m/ m$ H3 q" V* l0 Z+ {/ ?- J新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
# B( B: c' e$ `
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

  b( Z* w3 z1 z( V

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

0 O6 F# E) R1 j1 G# z$ s4 _& R9 U# P

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" G6 z: J2 q: h9 n0 p$ y& SIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
/ O% Y  b0 b+ v4 YHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

4 B1 B+ p) c- y
1 `  i" P$ r# J. c3 h# ~, jI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
5 z+ F8 z) l- t0 O( s0 f( [9 t, A, p7 ~Edmonton Single Family Home
9 m4 l+ v' c( j; F4 f1 p, sMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
: `& O" p1 H: _+ e3 jIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

( p0 i4 i% L5 f% N/ }QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


4 x/ J; G7 I1 Q' M. Y# ]# z) EI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

& h% g3 o% V, G* I7 B

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
" t$ b3 E- d3 i1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
) t& K5 m7 f0 G& F2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ ?4 p% t& `) T) E- F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

  H' Q% i% U$ R. _
7 v6 R- u2 R* F" w/ L" g2 m) N下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
3 x" F& ]4 o) l7 y8 \, n( ]. ]看来，观察days inventory 更重要。