Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
  o* J3 {5 U$ d0 J4 SIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

7 W: C* f8 {' Q) [( ?. ]& ADate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

7 d; _: F' z, [( u/ d2 ]9 {" D3 gOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
7 c) L: `; ]! e5 h1 H7 O
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
+ c- s: n1 |( F9 T3 V
Jul 2007
8 R  G2 ~/ s, t7 O3 t) V1 Y NA
2328
1 |" F1 ^/ p. o6 q 717
* C* r7 i, x; M 442,752
410,000
320
28
% Y2 `' P7 u4 V0 c7 z5 Y" d 31%
) a$ g4 ~  l" w5 R* B; A
' w8 z( J2 M! X& A5 uJun 2007
. B1 o9 C, s4 k$ r. b NA
2661
1 E: m( i) a6 U. Z9 u/ C 1011
442,817
2 [6 b% r0 \* ? 409,000
, Z! E: ]5 Q6 U' j 328
2 @' C% ~1 z' z 22
38%

$ n) O  O* a0 B4 MMay 2007
NA
  T* x0 Z) F4 c+ C8 N! [4 T 2288
5 I/ B# F; @, D2 Z% h3 L; \- `- c 1261
8 [4 }8 `! D1 W; V 451,216
! \& H! F. e9 x' Y5 B4 J 415,000
0 N& z, g. j& i9 O  w 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
3 M, F1 m5 r9 N0 U7 s* i) q9 d/ x存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; Y" Z/ f, }6 W鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
. }" ~8 Y# l: T  u5 b' _+ u5 l. a! ?9 T3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
0 H0 E5 A# D3 `5 c- G) X( P存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; P$ E% P5 x0 q5 t/ s6 g$ X鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

$ j; V( r: n6 c7 |% ?; }! `  r新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

# o* X% t6 }- W/ K2 J7 n3 m1 J就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
) T; P9 E3 d( i
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
5 }( n( g9 e+ X' I/ ~, Y; \Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ [, ?3 v! o& r- k
- Z" x; l' C! X

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

4 a& q2 A7 T# K

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
2 z# `! D( B: Z5 EIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
0 m" j6 A! e) ^' u+ z2 B6 ?good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
# j6 W: V4 }# H0 MIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( d+ x! ?: f1 J* p6 \7 I9 R4 e5 `How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

5 {0 V' b$ t$ R  [9 l$ l+ nI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
; T8 f' E( y$ B3 i9 KEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
! ~, d. Q* q4 }8 {/ ?' sNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
8 j! K7 c" w! K4 A
+ z/ O( a% S( d+ P. _7 N
0 n; d' {; O( W. d. @I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 o  ^0 T6 B# S5 o# A2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 h! I3 |0 k5 @2 ^" k3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



  Y3 E8 u) H& C* P* `+ V, W7 ~只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。