Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
! E' T. n  U3 L$ w& S& F! AMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

0 P0 c. v. U9 V! x5 Y0 ?Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

! W3 r' l) M+ W! d. B5 Y1 x; X. gOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
9 Y# y/ S* R5 W. i7 R* Y NA
9 W3 t  O; u- O: \ 2328
717
442,752
410,000
; O6 ]5 @4 }8 h- o1 F! ]- V 320
! l* `6 r, `0 H0 |' p) J 28
31%
5 i5 N0 p( \3 v3 G' f: L
Jun 2007
, I7 F% H* O/ B4 V0 D NA
2661
1011
  v! k# o: i2 i% k& p! _% { 442,817
0 N) d+ z* T: `. p9 ` 409,000
3 k, f& O7 l3 v( C% O. \6 Y) a 328
. g! y" H& U/ ]1 \& C 22
38%
) M3 t+ @) J4 _0 e+ _$ f; z
' n1 x4 N+ |/ m9 G. y: R; f) }May 2007
NA
2288
# v& s! ~5 h; x6 S. B$ G5 @ 1261
451,216
5 R& b& L/ F; Q$ N/ b1 M 415,000
322
19
' ^# }9 V4 @7 m- L1 n 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
  i) E0 `2 x! j存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& y% Z2 E: W1 q) `; W鉴定完毕！

5 J" s* k8 I7 j5 U, x/ ?6 F+ ]
% ~7 t5 t0 s: v4 o( v5 B8 ~用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

+ j% R6 T9 |  e& ~# Q
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
" b. }+ \2 d& N" O( a0 m, @8 c  J
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
/ U' u$ l  }1 B! ^/ J
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
7 [/ ?# p# {5 P5 h$ k
5 \+ d0 A9 w' l0 _- G' P) x/ K这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

4 P/ C7 ~% ^  B& a9 J

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
. }7 ^& @& }, x: _6 Y+ P3 H- w* n1 jgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
9 C: u* O) p" i) M5 FIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( Q7 {" g7 j3 N2 f2 @/ _, i  C8 xHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% L1 c' o+ ?) L4 F4 \" x" cI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
" w9 z  i' U3 T" ^6 S  G  GEdmonton Single Family Home
9 u. k' q+ ?% K1 I* {- A! hMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ A8 O/ @/ n8 w; R' c. NNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

  r' S' R1 ]) ^* q# ]QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
6 t% x# E8 N0 z

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

  E  ?2 {1 g. Q
! s. H1 L/ Q8 n( ~% G1 W, b下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。