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Long US

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发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.( E: `! v7 p6 s6 X  [' a1 N2 R
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
+ h$ H- v$ t7 n" v; _If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.7 B& A+ K7 @1 M2 x4 G+ u
TD can give you 4.2%.& D  v5 I7 N2 v+ t
BMO can give you 4.3%.) K: }2 l5 N( m: A1 l% @
RBC can give you 4.0%.& ~6 D* ?7 p' g
(Roughly)
$ L/ l% {; `1 a: C8 YIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.6 b% `( H# D/ @
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.1 E7 C  B$ C: C1 P2 F
Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.& j' N% l7 d4 M: w) m! y
From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
$ e; H9 z7 |" p8 F$ f/ IRough calculation:; r, u2 p0 G( X3 z) f1 V4 b
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
0 v0 v( F  _) r2 R2 V' S2 RBuy 10000 US cost you 105000: n: N! [9 e3 H! A; K; m$ \0 G
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
$ L: j" ]/ [- j# cIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
# }: b; R0 b. B  t2 {* OIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD." X- V) l7 a# N
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.  l8 ]$ r' Q3 `" _5 B4 i3 B* y2 l
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
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鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
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发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
3 M: Y; |, @7 U" e, o1 K3 l4 PWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
& F& A) m% H" s# U7 I" V' ?Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
1 z1 A0 L3 p4 N1 c4 g* B( YIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...
1 f/ J8 M* m1 a: C6 j

8 W+ n6 d+ o8 E0 T
# J" d/ O0 f8 l- r$ e这帐算得不对吧?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
, ~% t3 V$ F2 e% n/ [% k2 C# v2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
2 O% I5 V, i) f' V如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
: \- d8 W9 l+ p. L- c/ ]而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
% F4 b, t$ ~2 }% y政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
& ~4 Y# r) L1 I  VBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?
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呵呵,多打了个0。
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多谢。, Q/ N0 w0 ?, C/ H' J; {. p1 S/ ^
$ a+ a4 x# h4 x! |) E$ ~* z
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
6 H  p4 r  O0 @6 E) Q) P我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。4 }% S$ m7 f5 Y' q! F  |
2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
- ^/ C. n: ~  |" q/ Z% d如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。, G0 \. A8 j% T4 [# r: F
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
1 S: X# `* h& v: c, \" r政府也会需要钱。 ...

' Q1 B: L# {# b: P) S但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。/ ~7 q9 i% @" p$ B& ?! N
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现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?
5 G. w! Y, c5 N, m! Q, M0 e& x还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。2 _8 y# L8 Z  P5 }2 U8 i
如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
1 }$ J7 U* r3 A, m  x, _3 f) n你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。7 b5 z+ x* G+ U( m
如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
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 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
7 c( f3 `/ Z: E- v6 S  TRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask 0 J  E, g8 @( _- K
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
鲜花(2253) 鸡蛋(32)
发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"8 m3 y6 u! B+ N3 g2 ^

6 z/ }0 L3 R  A% A6 X1 U[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
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