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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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By Barani Krishnan
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5 D# |0 S/ i$ Q T2 fNEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.0 Z6 P& I# {1 n( K1 a
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".! i' @6 s/ m* ^
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as
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# S" ?1 E/ o7 tU.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.
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0 B1 O9 |. q. ~0 O. l% LThe front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.% I4 e& k( v( r# B( l: I! ^
6 t# C8 D q; z& F1 W* VBoth crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.
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The oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.
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/ k4 n* \9 u: L* q4 C% c3 v' iCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs.
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.# V( O: z( P6 K: z% ?# L# l
9 g! h9 N! j7 |$ N/ eGermany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.7 ^" V" h% b8 p& \! }
+ [& [1 M$ K$ Q9 @. X0 kInvestors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.6 |5 J& L1 W9 }* p8 @: g5 _( k
: Q I* @- W- r6 k: P; W; r(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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楼主: jeffyu1988
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发表于 2015-9-2 16:23
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