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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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By Barani Krishnan
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as
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storage continues to fill."
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U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.1 V+ m0 {- y2 U1 V0 Y! m
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The front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.) w! x# `# v" M( v+ p) l
3 n5 k! q# r# OBoth crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.
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1 y+ a! H" ^ e# v; `9 k2 u8 c5 RThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.& l: d+ e6 `& Y: s' X
0 y7 k. X" n1 \$ R3 T, OCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs.
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.
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! k. V5 ?% Q2 y7 E w6 [- hGermany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.+ w5 F0 D( u( w# ?, G
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Investors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.
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% H- O4 ]- J, u( V0 Z7 H: x(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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楼主: jeffyu1988
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发表于 2015-9-2 16:23
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发表于 2015-9-3 06:44
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