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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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! A. D2 F, G) o" ?; `; ALast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
' R1 f1 L4 h4 rBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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! H: }( d. k, u( p$ v0 |% lOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.9 @( c9 u, }% n% _ Q% s
8 ]) m/ k5 o/ |- n9 YThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.0 H- Q: R% j8 r/ V: ~
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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& _( n7 a R$ Q3 vMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.; h* b2 p/ X" d) o0 w8 e
9 h. z; E6 z. [5 E6 n) |# V5 l“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.1 i a8 \0 L2 Q) S
& M0 G, Z3 {9 N4 gAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.) ]2 _# f( K1 o; q# P
* w) o/ {# l% o) UIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.$ P5 C8 l$ P- s! e8 V3 [
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
* w$ p$ g( X* UCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’; ^7 B* t2 C! E6 v
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over0 x! I, E: S. R7 m4 R! q q
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# r: Z0 B3 w8 [" s1 d6 O" Q. oThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.+ E) b. n" V" ^
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”! g) D' Z" P& g7 j- s
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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+ x; M8 X7 n) Q' ?$ h+ s7 ~CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year./ i8 i! h$ X+ p* ^2 G( M/ s" @. M
6 c2 _2 P# d, E* [+ }8 S8 rContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.7 o. i9 r/ N0 C- S; `6 H& g
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.3 E6 [8 E* _$ {9 u
" C8 o' C, N! M0 _+ FThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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- F0 H1 Z* r$ b“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.% k2 u# w! M. y5 }0 k i7 x5 M
8 z; a/ L1 p) m0 |/ p% B0 e8 P/ YTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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+ ^7 F: ~" U0 v' w; u1 j“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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