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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Republish Reprint) `! g' m A J+ Z4 A( b
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.4 }1 s. H/ F. T% ~6 |3 s) W. X+ V
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.. x* r, F/ l4 M( t) F
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.4 k/ C1 f { d/ q% j
! L3 C6 W) T) U$ \; V1 X$ E# mIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.7 }- ~8 W1 q7 P$ t* _1 S A
2 Q1 O. p# y7 {( {+ AHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.. {$ n# y5 K# [% }- C" w0 @3 A$ Z8 r
5 ?- @% s; Q9 t1 ^In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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$ H% j' l5 O& U- J“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”2 R1 W: u1 j0 ~3 D! K2 s
# K' K3 v' M8 F0 AFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.: I3 L# x3 ^. b* ]9 u6 O
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.4 k- s! I9 v3 s/ T0 T
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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9 z5 O# G( G. D5 y! }- [5 Y3 b8 _Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.- |! L% I' U0 L7 o$ J, N1 \6 E6 K
, T" A+ ?6 U; x$ @/ Y/ ~3 |; kThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.1 X2 S# F5 s# x1 {
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.9 x X% @" z `; b4 G/ x4 i L$ G" y
! w3 E" Q+ a) m9 e' t“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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