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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts: `2 U* [* ]6 p% _- b' i# |
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants. X* a4 {) d4 {, c" _' P) |
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.+ L. M; K' [% T$ [$ a" y8 J7 D: E
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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/ `5 I5 X7 v# Q0 zThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.4 P2 p' r9 k5 T8 ~' f7 t& A/ E
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”. j" F+ D# M4 E, l0 y& O1 \0 z$ H
# Y- ?6 V, a9 C1 g( YMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.' T5 w0 L/ G0 |% }1 i6 f
0 K. R- L/ G6 E ~“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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- ]3 E; v0 v# S* {# wAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.7 |1 D# |# @9 B9 i
" z9 A- E. S' \. z4 XHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.9 M$ I9 C. d/ L+ G
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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& e2 R( M) m9 ] wThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over- m& |, K" @* j4 B
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5 Z7 e9 Y' V1 K" s: k! L' ~3 xThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.” @( p2 `4 B2 ?8 A) m
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010., A! w. ]) q @/ Y4 u" |
6 n! U5 u; G1 q- z+ a) x# qThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.0 F- G" ~0 H/ l$ t v
4 u+ \4 x9 x1 }( G1 t' |Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.) `: a7 S/ a7 F- X! E. U" c, g
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.7 @* O0 X0 x' ]7 Y. m+ t. k6 m
! U) o! m6 m1 [" i“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said." g( ]0 ~. j/ H* X8 Z
7 l- m6 V" M. g. f: P* @/ w& h8 gTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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4 @( `% f& v: Z# ^* E. X“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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