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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET( m4 l& H) L7 S
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! x* }% L; Y: Y8 ?5 cLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
$ l( M( I1 v1 E/ `9 F, u3 R( fBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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0 ]! e8 B( z" n' E4 UOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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. _! R8 c* c) W+ |: |/ nIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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( e4 ^! K+ F6 h* }3 IMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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! N& Z: g- y, v* e5 g8 J, m$ `However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.$ q4 h3 z1 K- N) x' v
1 Q4 o f6 l6 }! TIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.% A/ R6 h' E1 M
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
; R& j! E# R' Z% {7 \Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
( {& L6 ?3 [) ~. hThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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. O* M S1 m0 K$ V! \The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”: U* ~; y# b8 i! H2 R
f/ t- x- @* F; |9 fFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.3 E$ n% a" X) c3 {2 }
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.9 b5 G% d* K6 I
& J1 |; Y% p7 R" E" h, z9 q# XContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.3 t5 A- ~$ F# H) {5 X0 c2 M
2 S4 ~( ?- @& z/ H& lMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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5 b# d. \* I8 B9 `, |0 S5 rThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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0 E1 W# y/ L) ~2 X% I8 V“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.7 W7 F4 Z7 V5 @$ f' r3 G
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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