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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts6 h" C7 V9 B3 s9 Q2 t
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& l2 d8 ?! t/ c7 S- q$ p& RGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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# }. n: q. u9 zLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.+ c5 z$ N9 a9 N$ p# G
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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% i/ g+ x! E% ^3 p6 COTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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* b1 Q- s) T* r7 pThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.3 E" [# p4 E5 x! K; R. s( p
: @6 P6 y+ c$ `- SIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.9 \- ~. u+ w, `0 }2 Q/ s
" ~ _2 u Q4 L1 P" C! R9 x& y' ]1 TAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.0 h5 X2 Q( F- l( H
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.9 i; q5 p0 G/ {: q6 i1 ?( u9 f$ z
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
& m, z9 L* e* w% \$ U. a- fCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’- V; x% I/ [- t4 p8 i, v
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over J0 E" {5 b1 Z5 q7 e
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.1 e1 `0 h& j/ S0 Y! z
: l$ [1 F# U" m9 p" C+ O“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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: u" @7 V: S( S |: j$ {For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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/ K T. X1 |8 S9 y, aCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.( Y1 R$ `/ l! n# k
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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! n& _! t& h# bThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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/ B, Z$ F6 w* V( R5 g4 G) a/ ETotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.# t2 g0 o9 ]1 F4 l8 @7 B# l I2 |0 q- ]
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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