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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?# g! |( }+ p0 Q$ ^2 O
5 n# x' ^! H7 S# tBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.6 d4 v* H k- S% @1 z% l, D
^3 o0 T: H1 H4 T {! dBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." 8 m) s) z9 `/ }7 G2 z
8 U4 \1 H$ X5 CHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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% w) p# S+ ?1 o) u; `( y' H# WIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. 7 c2 D- B* h/ ]1 r* [- _
, @( I0 Y- C) z1 ^9 x: A% `You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.6 {# d" ]0 K7 V( O$ H
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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