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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.7 L7 v) I$ S( e; q; H' Z) B$ r
1 o+ G. G' ?5 Y2 @3 TSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.2 o3 ]# m7 }, Z
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."! R: M! B( {- {1 H, C; o* Q
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.$ q) Z) Z) ^" i' H' J- k
2 M8 G& u! W9 u" [' xIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.& I# l: t# [- V1 r6 i, E
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly.
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# G. D* } L z% A- o! ~( |7 [7 RYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.7 b% b; B K7 R6 m6 ]( i/ A
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% o1 c7 B2 q- Z# w# B5 R6 Bwww.happymortgages.com |
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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