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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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8 R2 I+ V0 K5 ]) vBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.3 e; y7 o. ~) T1 t9 \5 ~2 ~
h' @/ @ w( ~- i0 NSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged." r4 l0 [; ]: ?# L) Y4 F
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." $ m9 J+ r" w. ?+ s3 ?
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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$ k& Q: P3 {2 k) u/ Y" \The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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: t1 B) Q; s- [2 i4 X9 r4 R9 pIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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/ I5 k4 g+ N) {6 u3 O2 w8 m# GBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. 8 |) Q9 l" [% Y9 a5 C4 k4 e
' P1 m. d3 }; i4 R) c/ QYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.0 ~+ a( ?! h& }6 J d5 H
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
