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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 : s2 c2 b; C! R0 E: b) \
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有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。* L4 K- U% N; }- I( V
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* R3 I) b( g% W. D5 h; ~ B. {. qMan who called the oil crush now sees this
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017; U! A2 G/ P3 y6 Q4 e/ Y {
: ~; u# @- t5 D4 W# Y5 b) _/ }Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.- r# Y6 \: `0 I
( d1 ]$ g X* }; H- q; zNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.2 ]; f7 s% z5 W; C" r
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
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! r! A- O4 j1 ?& v6 O4 q: dCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”! G' x% P/ n& I% A5 i$ h- L
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian., w) x9 L$ E+ Y) N
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
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/ T* B' v) q0 L w" R* YFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote." h6 X0 R+ s( ^* V2 N+ H+ k
' K/ Y' Q" q4 ]& c1 }$ D2 C& WSource: CNBC; E6 t( E6 C* F3 G( o5 [
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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![3[2].png](data/attachment/forum/201704/01/161128c2yxjn80kj4krtpw.png "3[2].png")
发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
