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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 2 Y5 I N$ g4 S
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有一定道理,最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头,年底回到60元。他还有一个观点,大家也应该意识到了,各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底,大家的日子就好过些了。2 Y. I# p6 O7 g; j' W
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4 Z* ~4 C: h- \5 ?5 f$ YMan who called the oil crush now sees this
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; D( R+ ]% F' u5 Cin Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017
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$ H u/ p. _$ ^" q8 LTwo years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.) N5 ]2 K5 s* y7 D
) s! c5 a7 f% k6 Z: I, rNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”2 z. B& Q g9 [0 g' K( l
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Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.
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; t Z' |, R# [3 X! jYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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$ h9 B; z& _9 B, ?% C! }% l6 N“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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/ U* B2 I! \8 v# o6 @* W: HLooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking : b, a- T' \7 x; O# s% v$ B- s/ C
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.+ N* ]- }6 l" L% l2 _9 r
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Source: CNBC4 S# [- H: A* D
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