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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 * x( R/ a; i! V$ v% S7 e9 C3 S
4 S* p6 ^* F/ ~' f/ i有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。
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; z e p8 s, u4 z. |Man who called the oil crush now sees this$ k0 Q' z8 t2 p9 g# ~# _3 F! m
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017+ \4 U5 \) S+ `8 k1 W4 p
. D5 `& z2 |) F9 A1 }Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.- K( Y, J& z. z: J
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.! x7 l2 [, C5 @! B$ m
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”* f& }$ s% c! ^5 n
2 M6 B0 }9 L$ c$ m: ~Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”+ V8 U) W* c/ o) C. ]
1 Y) y1 c, l* h6 o# _The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.( o0 M& f( z+ W" _) |# p' B5 n
& ^# e5 h, ^7 t* j0 zYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.! W/ S: R: K/ m: y& T
- M) X6 B6 Y( \* O7 A# h- MWhen it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”% S2 h1 f1 h# F' [2 X( k8 o
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”# `9 A2 v0 ^' d8 f& d6 z
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Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking 7 e; x; b/ C2 V
Around.”
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.( P8 I# i) o9 Q
+ G$ h) U8 E& t5 i3 y+ f& `, i: pSource: CNBC
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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![3[2].png](data/attachment/forum/201704/01/161128c2yxjn80kj4krtpw.png "3[2].png")
发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
