Is there a house bubble in Edmonton?

smalltown

How to figure a home's fundamental value
6 k- n/ _  s( T* u) oLeamer says he can tell because homes, just like stocks, have a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) that he believes determines their fundamental value. The “earnings” part of the ratio consists of the annual rent the house could command. Homebuyers can compare current P/Es with historical levels, Leamer says, to get some idea of whether houses in their cities are becoming overvalued.
" P3 K( ^2 l* u
$ k, E" K1 w7 Z" S. Z! [Not everyone buys the idea that P/Es dictate value. But investors who completely ignore P/Es do so at their peril, as many have learned in recent years. Leamer, who heads the prestigious Anderson Forecast at the University of California in Los Angeles, points out that the P/E for the Standard & Poor’s 500, a key stock benchmark, was nearly double its previous historical high when the stock market bubble burst in 2000. When home P/Es peaked in California, Boston, Dallas and other markets in the mid-1980s, devastating real estate recessions followed.

Leamer didn’t invent the concept of P/Es for homes. But his willingness to proclaim bubbles in several of the nation’s hottest markets has brought him lots of attention recently.

, C% [3 E8 A2 l' b# `% Y2 ITo calculate P/Es for entire cities, Leamer divided the median home price in each by the annual rent for a two-bedroom unit in each city -- and looked at P/Es each year since 1988. Here’s what he found:
  ]+ a! `5 U4 w+ Z9 p4 g7 p, U

- u! R' z4 K" v1 x5 U: {$ f- R# b% qIn Boston, the residential real estate market’s P/E recently topped 30 -- compared with just under 20 in 1988.

! O+ i" _/ i" [$ PSan Francisco’s previous peak of 25.6 in 1989 has been eclipsed, with the P/E currently at just over 27.
San Diego’s current P/E is nearly 30, compared with a 1989 high of 23.4.
New York, by contrast, is actually well below previous peaks. The area’s current 22.5 P/E is above its recent nadir of 17.6 in 1993, but down from 28.6 in 1988.
You don’t have to know exact P/Es, however, to spot signs of trouble, Leamer says. Any time there’s a disconnect between prices and the underlying value of homes, as measured by their market rents, there’s the potential for a bubble.

/ e( J. F  A5 B  gIf home prices are rising much faster than rents, as is true in Los Angeles, that’s a strong indication a bubble is forming.

If home prices are rising while average rents are falling -- which is the situation in San Francisco -- the bubble is pretty much unmistakable.

2 Y8 V+ p) X( l* S" c Home P/E ratios for 9 metro areas
Avg. 1988-2000 2001
2 {' \. L+ o0 ~6 u& nBoston  20.5 30.2
San Diego  22.8 29.7
( c. b3 u) c2 R  `San Francisco  23.8 27.2
Los Angeles  21.3 25.6
Seattle  20.4 25
Denver  17.7 23.7
* j1 m2 g% L2 ?" H' T1 B; @New York  21.2 22.5
9 q4 [) }) L+ l6 G3 x3 O' uChicago  17.2 20.8
Washington, D.C.  17.1 20.4



3 t' \! Z# Z9 YIt's difficult to compare P/Es from one city with those from another. P/Es in Atlantic City, N.J., have wavered between 17.3 and 11.6 since 1988; in San Diego, P/Es have not dropped below 20. But you can look on the P/E as a measure of risk -- that is, the higher the P/E is above its average level, the greater the risk, no matter where you live.
0 U' n6 V) u! \3 S1 Z

, p  H7 X+ ]6 [) O! T6 UFrom: http://moneycentral.msn.com/cont ... ingguide/P37631.asp

CANDYMAN

Who has the P/E for Edmonton for the last 20 years, please post it here.

1 X4 Z0 B6 K( x+ N, p, I. wit would be a good reference.
7 O; n  H. \4 j- F1 ]0 m
thanks

醉酒当歌

20% buble at least. And it can take 3-5 years to digest the bubble if not burst.
3 d7 `: I# Z7 ]; l/ Z
[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2007-1-14 16:41 编辑 ]