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# d6 G! b$ a% F9 P4 J9 [Thu, January 11, 2007( ^" I7 {& C$ R6 i4 G
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007; e) `. E3 o& e0 o4 {
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. & O( R- K8 ]% R; K* d! X" D# p
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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/ K4 Y8 N4 F4 k# bDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. : @- m/ Q% o7 @8 \0 k) g
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' , S$ j4 t9 X0 `4 W! D: Z' n3 c
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- `) M0 a0 _9 `; v, U3 J+ G"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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- | R1 M8 K* {# T# Y! s6 u% rShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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6 B9 F) L/ N& W! _- QCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." . w9 j- n: F3 A" Y: l& Z5 p+ t
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. $ C% P7 Z, \, m3 q; M$ F$ l' ?& l
* ]9 ?3 W T$ `& R" U8 q5 r/ p"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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: x: s, O/ I! f! i( f"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ! Y5 l2 j/ f' H5 `5 I
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ! x b! Z) M5 }9 b
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ! b: G7 n5 P+ S$ z
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 2 ~( W2 B/ J. S% j. ~
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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& |! x" E& c; D2 Q9 `$ wOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. / e5 K5 I5 c% v6 E* z* E3 N+ l+ ^; R0 r
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 ~ o* k# T, e. z& q' J( M
/ k) v' o, }, j6 E. B! G) E& Y6 ]6 D+ P5 g"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. * Q4 Z0 x1 S" ]9 P; i, F5 m) f
/ Y0 S8 i/ c' F& xSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. + { o) D) S0 K; F5 R7 {
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 6 T1 D: l/ [; }+ q2 n8 O- }( _) m% Q( Z
# _) s) F) f4 B0 Z( [2 D"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 2 E, {% V# I% Q' c
/ i$ _" O& Q5 NLet the good times roll. d: V2 U' q& t# @/ z
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Previous story: Bottom Line% K$ [' g' W: P( z
Next story: Building permits hit record
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