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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com+ t& L6 Q I! W; U b u
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1 \3 z3 z) k, R2 c" p) s* t* l4 G In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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P9 _: s* n# E4 @) pPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. W. Q6 Q2 d& m) B5 u' j9 m- |
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN# F7 _2 x o$ C* P
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. # h* \: @, i% E* W5 [
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 0 |( B% o- Q) m3 a7 z( \
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. % P2 |% ]3 c, l6 h. O: s
& Y: |" |2 c6 \' _3 }9 l'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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/ a$ g$ H9 z" q4 s2 m"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 3 q h; k+ Y$ k+ S7 B& y% o6 M
- I+ X7 e: b3 I; y% pShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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* H# v q5 ` v7 R"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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( D6 C( x& Y! U( T6 n' {"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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- w* Y/ B8 X" T h' q" t9 E. xStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ) _" Z6 t1 N* X1 t. z- d/ a2 X& t
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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* Q9 E9 `9 s( C# s( e"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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. T' l5 M6 l" W+ X! J2 c* [2 nHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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0 r8 y9 d' E& z9 ~) X: y5 Z& t1 SExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. u1 c& Y3 g6 {/ J& \3 Q
) G5 g. D6 n5 s/ f! } c' i4 fOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. & J a4 _4 q: u9 t% ^! G
0 g7 v2 j! F* {+ e3 G- h! @"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 1 z d6 W: w, \+ c1 o2 C
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. h+ ~9 p H2 y; }$ I
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Let the good times roll.
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3 u! y; W! q6 z7 i/ }4 O- J5 Z This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun. 2 t8 W3 a) h0 {- P p& b s5 X) S8 \
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