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! U; F _0 Q; e+ k Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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* L; c- y$ i% ]8 _ In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.8 p5 T$ K( g$ `3 y; t
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6 n% R; d% U' f g3 m5 FThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
5 f. C" l" A* _$ mBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN7 s5 R+ s1 @' ]2 j& f) v
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. : O' N$ f& P3 X5 X# A
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' B6 B% r: P1 M! O. o0 F( v" ^ S+ g
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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3 I3 o% k' r3 Q+ V0 ~6 GDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ! H0 @8 ]* c$ o; e, Z
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' : t- f! N# t, x! }' z1 x
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, o' X0 V3 L6 }$ \9 c# \* K"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 5 l; {4 W2 m$ p
( E" `" g K+ aShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 4 ]+ g) a: Y: ]" y: _
2 A @& O0 X' O( `: m$ yCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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# H% M" z; l& ]( ~, L$ b"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 2 t7 r) t B1 m% [. g
7 E. a- L: ?5 RStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. & U- J7 W; ^2 t. U- r
( ?5 Q4 _ t& k$ d; O! |+ g. ]/ t"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. # m8 m4 K$ O5 X. K. G" N4 Z
q/ t( P. u( J"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 5 G7 H! Q- K" ~; Q3 S) d
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. + }8 U0 Q$ S' C9 f3 a) j
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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& K+ |7 B+ {$ Z' |) ~Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. f2 |3 S4 I8 C
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ! C4 r( W% x- a
8 g3 N. b* R4 O0 _) Z; f H"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 p S# m8 k) x. s
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. / t2 X$ I7 P0 F
% Q+ @! |4 N& W- Q, K# ~. ZYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. / I, z& s# f9 v8 {( r' x. E
5 I* @# ~" I6 n& _) M9 `/ i"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ) A8 i# u, n1 E0 t1 U: ?
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Let the good times roll. ' E1 y; }; ~9 ]$ W+ \9 b/ ?# c
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
