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0 O4 c- A! A6 N, i4 Q Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com0 z& B5 ?& B: U9 c, x
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1 o3 Z3 I) I0 c& LThu, January 11, 2007 ~1 h6 |1 ~. Q2 r4 ~1 {
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
+ i" q) _/ v: C( x' M0 z8 gBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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" {, a2 u, E: `* t& AThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 8 P/ U) b3 A% K
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ L5 R1 q" N% K
/ T" m! }8 ?1 {4 XDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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- j2 s/ A. H: c6 BShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. / v1 _! _" Z# F
' k" t. r+ a! ?6 B& I; ?) P* R' J"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 6 l7 j6 c W7 C
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ c3 ^4 I/ T# R
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 1 J9 B' z$ Y& `
1 a: ^$ U7 n# e! p' V/ C7 T) nStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 1 m, D* Z4 s$ m$ @
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ; F' D7 F8 v" W
% V" ~5 T# Q- p l9 t# y ?* W- A* q"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. % e& J0 e" ?' ^% \" N# T7 |
% ~- \8 J; R3 }' W+ H: u* b5 O* e"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. $ t# }) u) A) g8 J! R" ]
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT - ]/ @0 W" x! m5 B" p% U7 P" Y+ Y
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 6 r3 ^8 ^2 H" ~. ?- ]2 C
5 w, H9 Z; j* Q- ^His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. & \+ ?- e1 `" {4 u% j' P' w- p
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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$ ^+ B* i) a3 D+ S; W2 G EYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 3 I3 k o/ G8 d% E' ^
# r7 b0 i5 ]$ K) ]4 g! m3 vLet the good times roll.
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: i- r% J5 G1 hPrevious story: Bottom Line, L. @/ @" O7 }' ^" O5 O
Next story: Building permits hit record# L. ~ U. b- R" \* a H0 R
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( x: W- }. h: C; `$ y& K. r This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
