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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com. L+ l- T9 ]$ x# w& g9 E) T0 h
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& O6 i0 m; v: z9 d8 D) z( i In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007" A" H8 S' z/ Y. e* n0 i7 {
" k; |% |5 P* X# K( @Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
6 C) C* ~' r$ {1 {By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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% O( r0 s( M- T2 x8 k$ kMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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/ Y+ ^: J+ m) c s7 `But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. " W- M6 A a1 N* A
5 G/ h" r$ x, ^, k5 f'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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6 e% c( C" ~0 j% Y: o% f"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." * {2 q* E) f; S! R0 t
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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4 \" \4 O6 a+ p3 ~8 C4 N; h"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. * p9 l$ H- ]( G$ A" n+ l6 A
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! c, V4 y8 t6 B: b( ?
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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% K& z4 H3 [% n+ G$ Q: l"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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. B, _# _* [ s) m7 o- x1 y/ Z. b"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. * t8 \. D. j2 L `
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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4 m; F& W* Q( o- LYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 3 v' \0 ~% A* u% I
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : @- C1 P4 ? ^9 J" I. R6 u
, G6 ?" u$ M! j* K1 L& Y) u+ K7 {, ALet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line- J: N7 L5 h9 C
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
