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Thu, January 11, 2007
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/ C: q4 n0 s8 Y- J8 z T; l( X6 XPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20073 X0 C8 l, m! k* ?3 E! \
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN, s9 _$ I1 F+ @+ x0 a
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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6 i2 b1 b; Z" D, ^) g5 `But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. # _) s3 k# z1 b/ b' n# i* N
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. * \+ F1 r8 e0 x9 a
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." " J9 O, s0 g) G( v# C! ~
. s" z1 J! f; V$ C, H/ p1 ^9 X# c+ YShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 9 b0 `& z2 `9 I* j, I1 }6 A
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ; I! e7 z4 e( m4 z1 Q9 I
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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$ o7 g+ q. T! c0 ?- F- |"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." + u2 q% e1 M) C- `/ z7 i6 j
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. + P& w2 g9 n/ R. F; i; b/ l7 `
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 5 D8 [* |9 E) W) d3 _5 d- V
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 4 a) p! r' t/ \; r5 b! u
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 1 l8 [) Y2 E: q/ u, V' ^
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 1 e6 |3 F/ H+ b9 H
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. m, @) N. W* d: `6 ?' q* J
" Z7 M0 @9 Y( N, {* R- c' H4 DOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. * G" z; ? v1 ^9 G
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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5 w- o5 g, A1 X"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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4 c! G; g( s! o4 ]" K- Z6 v4 ^( l2 HSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 9 ?! P+ X& | o* E$ q
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. " P; c* }( ]. L% V& d3 u
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Let the good times roll. / _# c6 m) {( M3 D' I: @
' K/ S# L0 x( o% `( \7 VPrevious story: Bottom Line
7 d# u( f: j8 h# P* D7 ^Next story: Building permits hit record4 U' ~# ^* L2 p& |- S
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