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4 ^9 K2 j6 z5 Y5 e& kThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007# _8 l8 I# y( C! Y
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN( ?9 N C8 R2 z
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. # {7 k& K3 B ^3 }# C
0 z7 y+ }- p. oMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. % f* J/ D: W. X- K) d8 q
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. : Y3 R( s% \8 b' |! d; s1 r
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ( `7 ~7 u8 s/ m0 b
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' / F8 ~2 @: r ]6 i, _6 w
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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4 l% s' p; N+ l9 xShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. # H. h5 |$ X- @2 m0 z
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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* O* ?' m* T- Z. d' ^* B) j! NCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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/ X' J4 g X# ?! q; |4 ]"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ) S) N! Q. o" j5 J _
- v7 e) g! h+ h2 g. FStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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, A% F, x+ t$ U0 a! g"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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* T. Y$ w2 u% a( _1 Z"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 5 i4 h- ]# w1 l0 J
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ; L9 y3 c. m/ u- p- r% c
2 I8 h: }9 b% E) x8 iHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 7 L; i9 M9 K/ i" D) g V- Q2 R; p
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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k& G4 ?1 F: C6 M3 h+ a8 \8 G" f8 i2 hOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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; s T! j9 p% M) OHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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3 {9 D+ r" x( ]$ U( n* M" ESo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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$ ~( X* d% [$ Q- C: d7 G5 bYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ; s: @+ x/ F; q
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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% ^, U! k4 x; O. CLet the good times roll.
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1 R( W$ U# [9 \- X( dPrevious story: Bottom Line
6 ~' _* X# C- Z8 Y/ JNext story: Building permits hit record
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