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r+ W0 v) m5 a Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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+ W' A2 b2 }8 l% v3 Q- QThu, January 11, 20071 c2 D8 [4 d9 M1 F5 [) N
) H' J4 Q8 q1 \4 a- D$ F0 NPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007# [' w) P6 S, g+ s3 ^! g
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN6 E. R+ Q# F% r- l- F7 d
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ) g5 p; }& m) {! @6 v- j
- |7 j5 b1 H8 c7 YMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ J8 c& C( z" T, }
' |6 @3 ]; X# y7 ~Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' / _3 Y- a! q, Y; e! H9 h! l S
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." % M7 n; p9 S& q5 r+ `: H9 B' J
1 k' F" K1 |% bShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ( L+ ~" U6 t3 d: T/ m6 O% J
! j5 D( A( J: J6 V9 t7 UCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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{3 {( ?8 O7 _" \* [8 d5 E( V4 F- O"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 1 g# B E! l" e6 O7 _0 k% g
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 9 r) U) f, C q K+ t
' ]' ^! T/ _0 c& t! e"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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4 @ C" }0 A3 W"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. $ f8 L! X3 Z9 S C
1 c& Z x5 Z+ r% h i/ Z2 ^* S"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. $ l. ~% s+ b6 R" x# {7 s
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 0 H( p h) R- O8 g0 B3 E
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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; l/ C0 h; @3 `) TOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 9 \ _+ J! [ S4 V& U
5 @+ _3 t% ?6 Z! J; J" THis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 3 c/ t5 B& a6 E7 U9 |/ E9 t( ?
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ( P- v4 C3 v m2 B- W
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. , K& p. j: U5 {$ t3 z: A
5 U* {1 C6 K$ A" }- h5 Z2 H+ tYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. # c4 D- o8 i9 F
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. @- `7 L7 _+ W# b* r# A
4 i; h( O! Q+ p# rLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
" z x- h3 F. INext story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
