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2 x9 Z* C" y: g' W. xThu, January 11, 20073 z- [' ?0 h( @3 ]9 M
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
; B1 I; x) f% j7 XBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN9 P9 J5 R& W8 m) v$ W6 i# {) [3 T
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 8 J0 A+ r G' r5 A9 H+ F5 u
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . n+ l2 t; Q6 ], r7 ]
0 b3 b7 Q; `. }" Q6 KBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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4 x/ i: K5 C; MDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. & x; N' @$ c7 o/ I k
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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8 j4 Q# j( T6 Z! D5 |5 g. q* `She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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+ N4 e+ o/ z7 W" ?" H4 U) {2 ^Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. . P ], s |# [# |, L
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ) S/ u2 y5 x+ g7 a" y
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. + f9 T" X/ G' O) k$ y; u
/ I4 ~9 c. F7 V0 l2 | N) V3 ~"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. & P$ A) @$ B ?4 d$ m
* d& q, z3 }: r8 f"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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; X& F9 l% Y! c5 r* r5 B6 O& S1 eNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ( f d! ]3 Q* t# z
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . | H% x3 r' i) G
9 H. u% p9 p; L9 Z3 Z' J; g8 JOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 0 f4 |2 W+ H5 X6 k) |4 [: M
- r5 @9 v/ d r: ?3 g- `His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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; M7 a/ w. X9 ]% k6 }: F/ J& _; ~' C"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 1 {; ]) }/ r7 ]) @4 U; z
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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7 O& }2 u. p' T& b5 C7 @Let the good times roll. : a) F# m5 l; j8 K
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
