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8 p/ v" N& A3 t$ F. {& U, YThu, January 11, 2007: X; [8 [% y- p6 z
) e0 r4 \0 J- Z8 c( x! I; B- DPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
" m$ _0 Z8 V; w/ |' a9 @By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN y q$ D0 j* {7 W; o/ P @) F
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ! T3 u5 L+ r: H [) \8 _
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' L0 Q0 _/ n$ F$ o" y( P3 ]
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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% Y* W! u) E# ]/ w# p6 m" c9 l"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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. w5 a' N& y% ~7 u( UShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. & Y8 e; F5 g6 I
0 B$ |6 R; ~1 P% ]7 H X8 o$ A"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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7 y' ]' w0 O7 `/ f7 x% b' Y( N"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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* ?' ?+ F3 z8 K"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ! j; P' e0 s) r c' j. u
7 }: Y$ T/ g: }+ u2 p) J"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. / }' E; K& V( n' M6 X- v' Q
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 1 N7 g/ i4 Q: `/ W4 j3 S1 V
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." : |; l6 Q7 G! t; p' z
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 w: g" z# U4 A- h" W! L$ |
9 z- |0 r2 V2 O- DOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ) ~ i H1 S4 C" e4 s1 {9 r& H
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 4 g0 y8 U8 `! Q ~
f! S' _! ]& G# Z$ S/ n"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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- S& P! F& Z; ^7 ?' lSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ) |4 Y& c6 Z7 K) f7 _/ s
; m2 P, b; A& Y* P. i) eLet the good times roll. ; O* T) ?& ` Q3 _# D# a( C
" U$ ~1 H6 A9 n8 j3 e4 c8 aPrevious story: Bottom Line* M& N0 l. P7 J5 S
Next story: Building permits hit record2 G* T Y$ S6 X' C
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