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$ R6 Y) i, e6 S In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 20073 }/ |4 x+ l# r4 S" L' L" l% }
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. ^* [6 v/ u! J: c+ |: b1 K- X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN, e$ A( e/ a' F1 g' J# u ~; t4 g
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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- P+ `. {) L7 S0 \But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ( ]5 ^: B' s! [# Z# N! d6 D
' K6 W4 w+ I0 o1 r$ [1 R9 gDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' " J' I1 m5 C" R6 A* Q4 I& A( Z+ q
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+ I3 l' U0 ^$ E* l* E* \"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 5 D2 D+ b s* I; v% F" A& X/ |
$ f. B* M$ k. l( Z% f- jShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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f7 @, W" ^7 z0 f"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 9 Z5 I M w4 n. V+ Q p- q/ g
: \: a% }. M; U$ S, @/ M4 T! PCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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, E) a1 S# w+ k"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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2 A# |# V6 f$ [2 A `Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. * \3 k" X: Z! g
% C; R k/ `1 X$ ]"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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2 F0 H; D. e$ O3 t" k a. m"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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2 q! c0 I: G% L. i"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. $ f7 g+ T9 S: F/ _; Y! h& D
5 u1 [: Z: K. H/ r% O+ wNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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4 J: R/ X1 L0 Y& f4 A( i1 \) WHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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9 X$ O! x" o E) f! V( aExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 6 l& l. V" {0 T- M6 a
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. $ K9 a' `% |- t7 b9 s! K& S! I
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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0 ^- X# j3 f$ R8 gSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. # G4 `7 r8 T0 m1 B5 n2 D( o1 O
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Let the good times roll. * M% t9 O8 m6 m9 c, ~6 c1 U
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Previous story: Bottom Line
0 v# j+ n6 |, ~8 DNext story: Building permits hit record
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