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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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9 E/ D, R# L4 p/ m3 @$ i/ _0 DThu, January 11, 2007
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2 }. J- Q% A1 V; APrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007% ]5 y: J7 }9 o, B3 X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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7 M0 V# H [% }$ B/ j7 |4 YMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . b$ h T. [- t- c1 ~3 q
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 2 ?; ]- b. J# B1 ^% m
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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8 S9 y: m7 H: k/ l a0 C7 U: `$ P"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 i4 V7 r; @# _/ t. S7 P7 E- a
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 5 V. ?! L& Z" h' ~
" I, e4 @2 a- P) l3 f( {" F"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. & q: l. E x3 @' n5 B
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 f& n4 D% L4 ^4 @% o: b1 ?7 j9 L
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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* I4 O3 r& ~1 F1 ~# ]5 w0 {Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. , i' W6 J& ^( F5 s0 E: l
% h4 {; Y& a! X/ ]3 a& h% i"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. " l& y! j6 n7 r/ A3 H" s2 v
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ( e! S) o5 N* }4 V. Q$ a6 k+ z
. ?9 \# r( \$ K$ C0 _+ S+ d) E7 o"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 3 J$ ]. `& n+ t5 O2 P @+ z8 F
& L, H3 W6 ~7 x9 }- KExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 ]# y' W: R1 `% Y% |
6 Q& w/ s1 n3 b; C* `" k: oOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - M2 |/ W! u0 k+ C
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 q# E+ v- J1 E& @% d' l2 Y! ^
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ; R: ~( c! e, Y: s v7 T
" S# U( {- `, G$ t/ X" g* s"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ) ], {! I0 a$ ~4 g) o2 q2 f( X+ A
" q. L5 f" H( b. j, ]4 a' xLet the good times roll. ! a/ x' @% e }, Q4 L
8 e' V! K( W4 d; U$ t( DPrevious story: Bottom Line
8 _2 s5 m9 b2 H( \: L; fNext story: Building permits hit record
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