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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
y0 G3 ^5 I4 }' [3 v
. e( l. E) D. q u4 j3 L# s& b! }- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -" a% W8 q j: B1 L* {$ } e
; f q3 v+ `; o, B% o' y. m
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market7 m5 d: k2 b: O+ g' V7 v
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
; J2 e# s- i4 L4 T" @2 I! a4 F' Gquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic/ W9 M+ q. @" u" H( i
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit5 K# _- Q& g; @- d1 ^3 I* H
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and, s- ?1 R6 l, f, t! \
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario," u& {' ]3 S2 c8 j) m% n* p) u' e! ^' w% u F
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal) ^- a0 B8 a# f' o; ?: v) w; G
LePage Real Estate Services.
. o. B4 `6 E- D4 x! W
( Z" k- T% N3 V- w- M8 |! ` Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters9 m( S" F' o9 Y& {5 C. w
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
( X# |) ~9 `) ]conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
! g/ l) F- z8 ?- A7 L2 Bsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
. L" ?4 L& c+ A- aresidential real estate sector.1 d6 `( S* G5 u% }
* L$ f" R7 A! p, d Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
8 Q+ W1 Z @& ~occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)& p9 X6 I+ h1 q7 ]7 L; O
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562! g8 Q, M4 f% ^, k- \
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380 S* r+ g1 c' g4 @/ J
(+13.2%).- f @6 @9 c, C+ z
/ @3 E' F2 F2 \% n! m "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
$ E% z5 [% B i g' f) Zduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the2 t! X) ?" I" _+ `
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
( l6 p/ Y) J) Qpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,8 r8 D* b, a% K7 m1 @3 i
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
; t# ^5 G) E4 h v5 d+ {"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
8 p+ k" S& k! e) s9 Cwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
* _$ L y; z( @balanced market."& g6 y1 { W0 S" G
6 \ v4 C- \8 C# s Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
8 e' R& n0 l& p; O* n6 o& Kconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift' p% r# \0 q0 K5 s" i
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued+ A5 l' _& ?, m: e; r1 l' [
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core1 K- s' P: R/ a: X9 a
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
/ @& ]1 l, |: O k: k% j; q; c7 |manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record" |$ j; u" T( j3 ^9 L0 r- B
breaking price appreciations.( R! h' n" ?7 L
7 W7 Z) M, Y& d" J x! [/ o
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
1 ~6 r5 @8 ^ @$ s/ V' V& Reconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
; g$ k* X: Y9 z1 k7 l4 ~largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
g, t& v4 f- l u9 ~/ |: G7 G6 z5 Z% E% M4 m* a" ^( c' U
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
( _8 K7 q! O6 { J% @, P% s7 peconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
& q/ E; j4 W: U* V+ kconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
9 Z- s' s4 B' N# A' |5 pslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
$ d! s* Z6 S& NIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers) B0 n3 F5 g0 `6 N/ G+ _
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
4 \: c6 `; e! n: p8 |3 wprice appreciation when compared with 2005.
" w3 ~) G: z7 M: ? v$ |
5 T! D& I! H& a& l; J: n While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing9 L: Y/ X. {, k, g
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and0 J$ z) v @. i& i _* t U
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
4 N+ ?$ _/ W0 d! y) P# t5 Nare markedly different than those found in the United States.: Y# U/ i# \/ T3 Z+ D. h
4 N0 ~# I" c/ R H Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the+ \6 m& F: _0 [6 o! `
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
+ z! ]& Y+ J9 ]4 u8 C5 Yfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the6 ~. T# Q# _( j- ]6 b: X
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general8 K: b! E8 ]3 b4 Q; s3 g6 ]% u* @
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the8 c4 ]- [: i% E
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and8 c: ~: ~0 `& z4 x7 x1 j
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
@3 ^% t' d% F' \mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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6 M, M* w: G3 _ REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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h% H- b" a, @) C% {, N- m* H% m! }) `) v3 a2 r
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
, ^5 A- l6 I& Y K0 gHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate3 q- Q) d* \1 `: f% { W
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time- L: ~5 ?, x( p' B
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of) T5 y6 b7 \ L- Y; ^
renovations.
" v) U( d5 e- {+ M7 y6 }) I/ j- w2 w5 i4 g, B; o
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight5 \+ p" p l! b# M/ I8 N. i' _
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation+ z8 q" j5 Y' o# X0 J: Q
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
% |+ ~2 u8 c6 x* v; Y$ \* SSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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. E1 ^$ c. J3 c' H( p The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
: |2 _6 q; \: h& v" Tslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the* X, m1 l0 t# B* i+ @
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
' c- b5 h4 q2 `* E7 |600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores9 x8 Y3 `* V/ W( q4 c+ s' L
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
/ Q# x2 ?: ~' }and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.% m+ q# K) g4 K! ~3 I
4 A' Y m9 p' v; }" R, Z k
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced6 ^* B* S( }9 k1 \! o$ q1 V& m
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
7 A! C6 }( _ r0 K% s0 Mhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
: \3 a2 R7 i0 O. A, Y5 qwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
# Y1 w8 H2 v9 B* e6 w4 U( N0 ]5 Mdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing6 ~$ X2 V. k3 \7 X8 s4 Q
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
. k3 ?0 G6 C) d; h' e, i3 }
x9 T, j# k* G+ Z$ W& {, { Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
: z7 o# o/ d2 \among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
: O6 O9 O; ^4 k$ fpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
Z/ ^4 C. e3 Tas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
- T/ c: u l1 L" ]+ y& zfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.5 o' O( i8 ]( \7 l* G. c
5 T g) D, `6 w6 S, ]9 S
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house: P3 W+ D% [3 G) _# b: u
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory. q/ G' @ r; Z6 G
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
3 I! V$ v) J6 m/ S: W$ c: Zfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,, S/ `# D: G( k* e
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the* c& ?; b$ D6 S
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
9 d, @8 [+ \' b4 Y+ g/ Ymaking a purchase.8 Q. z$ G0 b3 K
$ v, _$ S4 {* K
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
+ A; F" ~& H' ` j z( s$ omarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
. \) ^, I4 S# z5 A8 j0 p) T3 Oconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city% d3 r# _( o ] u4 }' j
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
' C/ [/ v8 f* S3 z# tattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
+ Q+ s7 ~( r- g7 i6 M- q! l" ]7 iamenities.5 G0 H+ Q1 k& c7 Y1 t6 e+ i
3 T4 V; v! o# x( U6 u& M4 f: h
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels/ }- z2 A# Y0 e6 v- R' ^: _5 m# ^; A/ c* d
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
W8 z7 ]- w- f D2 O0 W5 Aacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has/ U% Q. J7 ?, S6 d
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been/ l/ o0 u0 s/ I# N
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
' X5 ^5 V# j2 jresidence, rather than for investment.
, G) Q4 }" g9 T$ N
& \0 C2 ~1 m9 k8 B" U% I The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as5 |# r: a: F- ~8 a, N
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
) u0 X. h s: V. n) }: z0 J: L3 Tin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
( ^7 q7 [2 D- v" |confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization: G ?9 D: a' n
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter: d/ v" |) A9 u* ~- P. E* R7 S
the market.
$ P6 @0 [3 \ a8 S! ?% m; \" Y
+ _6 s6 g& G+ P- W# p3 Q6 g9 c& v In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through: m1 l2 i3 J: S- `* P$ V
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
; f- ^& i& e( D9 t# q D+ x2 kAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
+ Z9 I. \/ k8 j7 Jmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due' S8 G# Y; x b" B
to the shortage of available inventory.
. N, d: o* ~; p, ]) l/ x2 m5 i7 c9 C; S: v$ R$ s% I8 s
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its; ^5 L2 o, ]5 ^: U$ a: E
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
, ~( b, g# f9 @$ f0 m' ^: u( Vvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
3 B. C; j" N- }; Kstruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
: I! ?) P: ~2 m5 v7 B1 o: [) |1 Z
' P' W, r( G- F/ g! J' q Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases% B, K! g. e$ S: Y( p) a
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
6 a. O1 {& d* {; _: {( H/ y/ E0 Nunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that: L8 f7 ^$ h' h8 M
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring+ f7 g9 [) _0 V) r$ M! ^
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer8 L" ^. C& d6 G8 Z% n/ `
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as! O; I6 i! M+ M' j, w: a
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.3 Y% Y+ u: U1 K& G0 ~" N! M
. v9 j5 B( T6 ]2 M" x1 T9 ~# p Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
( s* {0 K7 B" U$ n3 ?( n4 Kas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
3 \; C- H x- Y* c# D5 Sremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
- ]* \$ f- N9 |maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices$ ?, | c) A& Q# {& K
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
5 c; p& i# |4 h) min the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly# V$ z. h1 @( ^
towards the end of 2006.
2 v# h- \# E: w4 ?0 h+ H/ f% ?2 C& d8 ^
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
- o, H: {1 l0 s8 q3 Dinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable Y2 Y4 w D; ?* y8 E
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
1 ]. o8 N& r( P$ G% Xgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to$ v. A( ^8 Y& ?+ c
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added& Y+ q, M2 U: {% I* b3 P$ u |+ P
pressure on tight inventory levels.
1 F: } v# c, e+ Y! j
p- J( V; p V3 q Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic V3 ]0 r: h! q8 B9 U' ^' Z
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
4 y* U" K' Q& x. I3 L# b4 ~7 D H2 Pinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;" D( k/ |) k& E7 c" `& O2 c
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching: R# r( F& q" j4 @" s+ ~4 ^" m
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
+ i, V& a& c, C y3 v }. A# G0 \7 v; N0 g; Q2 w
<<
) n: X( ^# w* {9 v: _! | Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20062 I; w |+ N, t/ z
8 X2 |: @/ s3 ?. ^( p -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 a5 s2 E* ^$ x& k
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey8 n% ~7 R& _! }3 J0 d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
& B, T( B7 `8 K# ~) ~ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
7 ^7 E$ D* E+ B' w Market Average Average % Change Average Average
# \3 A, Y; _& a1 q -------------------------------------------------------------------------& f: \& T* l7 ^4 R6 ^* X w5 f
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000+ ~4 }, R4 w9 ^0 i
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ d0 M+ x) V8 ?2 b5 t$ a$ \
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000# J N0 }5 n+ A3 W- c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
. V' B0 p' L# p Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
/ I3 g- f: _! |8 p* L( C -------------------------------------------------------------------------$ P1 y+ h4 g, F
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
, U; I6 d( v: u& G( ~- J -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" x) ^ ^% X# U/ h3 ~# Q7 m6 ~8 z St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3333 @ V9 m# { X: u3 \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; }- ~$ Z. l, L8 _& s! W' |- O
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
, x4 V8 U& g, k2 s8 c0 T -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" _( J1 u- m4 ]: F3 r! D" K: T Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
4 i2 M* I: _9 O3 h7 t( V5 w -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ c% @9 S6 c8 \1 | d8 \, _
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2500 c6 L6 Y; H. x! b& m& b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------, b* x6 Z+ _: x+ L2 T. }
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
, T9 W7 c$ y, l/ r0 n4 w2 ?0 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 A/ x5 \. t4 q: U* B- a; L9 M, }/ z
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
9 U, T/ S& R# o9 `4 z* ~6 R4 p& v -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ ?1 a) m& m) o& o Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5007 }/ h! l' r& b6 s8 K. s/ T. I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# k5 _! Q$ L' \8 W/ B- R7 j' J+ w
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3891 o4 j( ^$ m4 m. g Q. N M
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ E# w4 {8 G$ [4 e' L9 L
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
* ?) c& x# y9 {, _4 E' G -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 z/ \0 u; o/ ?& U$ a# I
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500$ m( G* S6 c* l; S
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# j) \! U+ d, L$ a5 j Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0001 g I; H/ K( @/ x0 S/ M
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' T/ j# x+ I5 z& ]1 a; T National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860 G' J0 e( c2 O8 x5 q! a" T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; w$ U( w: G* e) _6 [
+ e1 j0 [3 s$ N -------------------------------------------------------------
1 A1 ^) v z7 a: r9 H8 b6 f) x, z) N Standard Condominium
7 W4 w$ T$ C. n! u5 B8 u0 u -------------------------------------------------------------
5 G+ Q5 i6 g; k- M" g: C! n 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
/ d1 s' e* ?% u- d8 Y1 x( o' s; ^3 { Market % Change Average Average % Change$ q) ?2 Q. S8 G7 i9 @( C
-------------------------------------------------------------( T, C$ I; X( ~4 Q
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
" g: l: P% u) j2 b! o2 D1 I. ^ -------------------------------------------------------------3 ? \1 i3 i& U7 b( T' \1 b
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
. f7 n3 W" K% o% U6 y -------------------------------------------------------------
5 Y7 d8 P6 z+ v0 B8 ^7 ^ Moncton 4.9% - - N/A/ D: ?5 N5 r6 p; l0 b$ x4 y
-------------------------------------------------------------: r' r* U! [7 D, X; P/ X O: B
Saint John N/A - - N/A
( B% n* p) K' K1 A& ^ -------------------------------------------------------------0 k; |) ?9 m0 _! T
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
: G; P6 j# a0 M -------------------------------------------------------------! I$ Y/ P$ f, q" q/ b3 x4 w
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
0 \! q' E6 k- W( d! ^ -------------------------------------------------------------$ u: G& ~. j5 Z% ]0 S3 C& j
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
- [- V0 U; M) @ r* ~+ h -------------------------------------------------------------
, R3 r: I7 Q9 K" d9 z' D! { Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%& Z$ X5 }4 v4 T: |
-------------------------------------------------------------% l, B2 O0 \2 J% i O7 z+ v
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%% \ \% j+ V4 R, Z+ S' x
-------------------------------------------------------------
$ {. a. _3 B8 M Q1 H$ ] Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%, p/ J4 g. o: O; G Q8 X
-------------------------------------------------------------8 L5 t# G# m/ h1 h& I& A: u% M0 a7 H' f
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
# O" s4 p7 Z% J -------------------------------------------------------------
- I, b( m! Q \) J; h Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
1 L V+ Z) U" ]7 A6 S$ g! Z) L -------------------------------------------------------------
4 R4 i+ \; V! W- Y Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
7 v/ h; C( \8 }1 H# a* x -------------------------------------------------------------# h8 b8 f$ s5 O8 a5 \# g( H' T
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
4 W" p3 O5 w7 h -------------------------------------------------------------
6 j$ ?! C7 F3 J+ [; o Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
0 G3 C4 |8 R& X0 {7 y8 C -------------------------------------------------------------# d1 W K' \3 ]& p+ k
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%: ?- N+ w8 O: L# J( h
-------------------------------------------------------------
- P6 I% b1 W: R G >>2 f1 d$ f! j3 M2 @
7 ^+ \3 m g `8 c/ V! _
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined9 ^# j3 s4 ^" K. p6 }: G2 M
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint1 [+ y N' l$ g2 [
John and Victoria.
! R9 }, q0 a' k# y7 [/ ^4 ]
8 u( B6 o: U/ A7 ~6 ~# N The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
3 f I+ \% L3 Ucomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of5 h/ Y/ r: e6 e/ h
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release, {8 f M6 w$ I0 |3 s
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price, g, b& i4 w; I* @7 H b8 {; V
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities3 [; K# G% y P. X$ G/ J
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
# X* Y8 h7 Z2 O0 J* g- \, g' |- J% bavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current* C- W# h; J& t
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
6 r. r' y d4 o4 a! h3 Dversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on/ H) x! D# S: M$ z8 Z
November 15, 2006.
4 C8 o* O3 ]$ E; Y" T- f Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
6 b+ `1 h. u- D2 _: O2 i5 afair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge9 H( G8 Z) q* z9 t$ q$ W
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
4 R9 i* p$ ~ |- U6 }available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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