宗教將在九個國家絕跡

2012AD

澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士
6 `0 |9 |' x2 L2 D% l% ~6 |4 g

' h8 ]* v! i2 j0 f( v" Lhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197

22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer

Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas

" Y0 Z4 D6 d6 r8 {3 QA study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
: `4 M7 A% `0 b& Y; S) ?; u
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
1 @( v- h: ?) [# E0 P
The team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
! S/ p' u5 I7 e: _  |
! t5 P0 `( D) F9 t& x2 ^6 F6 jThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
; @* A. S, L* r# F* R1 m- k3 M3 I
/ F7 P2 R0 n1 Y0 f! l1 wThe team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
% U& y6 o% x4 I; R: `
Their means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.
; T- Y" j4 Y( ]: K' @2 _
One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.

At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.
0 N" w) Z0 H1 U* Y& F5 _
\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.

5 E0 b; M- a# f! A, h' ^4 X\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.

/ t7 s  g# `. Z) d" N\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"

: O/ o% Z# S! @Dr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"

The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.
* h4 r8 Q' @% b  x4 I! i
2 u' F/ h# `, RThey found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
2 ?7 i# |  N2 k0 J
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
6 ~1 `, s. e& q# a
However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.
. {7 N% [; A1 t8 N
\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.

However, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\".
3 A* s8 y# V3 L# K$ F& N3 N3 }
- }! ?+ w! ^+ \9 l6 {, u1 R1 i- @$ N\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
' W0 ?: f- ~. f# c# y8 m, C
\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\"

2012AD

基督教在大多数西方国家已经走向没落。现代基督教的发展主要是靠蒙骗落后的发展中国家。

Onesimus1970

2# 2012AD
什么时候在加拿大绝迹? 我们好把宗版给关了.

路德使女

You don't need to close it, it will be expanding for ever.

historian

1# 2012AD

& T0 p8 [; Q6 Q! }9 |+ j# F& A7 A: ]
不同意。人脑存在，宗教就存在。

tigerkiller

看来是在国内的时候，政治和哲学没学好。连事物的发展是螺旋式的都不知道。什么事物的发展都是有高潮有低潮。哪有直线式的。