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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & W0 j% u( s7 \0 @. X1 Q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- D/ U9 q0 S3 L- h4 Z+ S0 w* }% umiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 G$ u( R5 y1 I( W; |
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* d m ~7 G. B+ ?. Y7 a1 u; A, Taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. H0 i" Q1 w' i2 p( X8 d+ m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 W* ?5 D5 {( T& }0 T" H' H, L$ b
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is( P. ^$ @) R( j
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 Q, J+ W4 [- K$ h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: T. @, R+ D* b/ X) w8 h# e5 ]! ` RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 G8 L1 c* t+ b0 i
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 \% o4 y, x$ Q V0 y* G, D! M! Fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! R+ G4 k- B- v/ ?0 i& ]& K4 t6 Ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.3 U; y" \0 B& f/ e, C/ a9 u4 x, T. W
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ E( o+ X6 _, n! [+ D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 C& R0 f, F% B# ?3 m8 k' o
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
J2 @ W3 [: ^# eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" y: Q* C+ b, t: | t# astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and9 B0 f6 `' L/ J& E$ A0 H g5 j8 \
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! k: N/ R& R$ T% A L& O/ x; h" \1 H
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
- H7 ^) Y0 `4 W) U6 |( mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 s- C1 O, G+ a& V( S
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
C7 U# P* F5 j: m# n; Ahistorically depressed levels.; f0 C" f. \' `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, S; X' l( H" c, P. j: w* |( m/ [/ f
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! Y& j, ?# t1 p9 P* n
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! I: L1 O4 t8 p% c% o# O
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This7 P6 P6 c+ \8 H( [. b9 p+ F, H% \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, C2 M1 f7 m7 g; q6 O1 u* Omonths ahead," added Hogue.( A- j+ Y5 O2 w; h# o4 G$ R
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 C/ F+ _3 h/ Q: G7 Bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 Y; B6 E% t2 ]% Z- C5 x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- V. X$ l( w9 g- v/ H The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& K' f( f% U) q9 P' }% G/ X1 J$ [
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- E( N1 F! A' l9 Y& V
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( C# W: {) Q' O5 x7 \* k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., D' X6 m! x$ s; X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ o' e5 i) `" ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
7 Y& Z/ |, t- ]benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! p* N4 P- }# w h0 l2 K. b! x& H6 ~0 N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 L- M L- T. ?5 H1 C
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. F* ^( y( f7 h: f
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 G, S8 X. a. Y$ s3 ^7 U
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ V" f" t6 v+ _! a+ n4 B! |
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
v( K/ v, F8 F {/ b( o6 d" N
& j' O) `0 p* r: x <<
6 f& M! g5 N+ M" \; K" t Highlights from across Canada:6 d7 P7 j8 G9 r G" V; h5 z
1 ]6 D4 g# h! w4 W% W0 ?5 Q4 }
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; A* D8 l0 y5 @) ^- x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; I+ {1 P7 o# Y4 u* N. _ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound2 c0 e4 `# p7 z7 T% {
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- F. ^* ~# [" q4 [1 G6 U4 f \
since about the middle of 2007.
; w3 N/ z( m$ V2 ]6 m6 r( ? - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ C4 P& K% @" M1 V
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( k1 Z* X$ W P$ K+ _ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- b4 i, I; {( u largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 `. @0 F2 C; w1 y
poor affordability levels.9 r1 l. t$ W: {5 ^0 Z. @
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
# f8 P. |4 N1 c4 ~ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( X5 P3 @6 o J# K7 o
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ N6 K6 |. ?% F
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& V* a& T$ c5 c9 C$ M4 n
minimize any downside risks.
: \$ }, B5 I; x- K1 E - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' M; v: l# |( u7 W) T1 C6 Q, O0 A
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 k, B5 m+ b% Q+ `
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 a6 ?* O9 F* H, t W+ t& u8 }
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% M( E7 h1 M7 y2 A- I6 N9 o being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- o2 u$ ^/ ~$ }% M3 [ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 J3 B) y7 W# ^3 b( f. f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! o' [! E" x& ^+ j# n$ |
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
6 `) u! `2 l0 G# ^ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
( |8 j. u: Q( w$ g$ _) t1 I# {1 a ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 X+ S, z5 ~: l6 ~ k0 Q
modestly in recent years.
# x/ H! z1 e/ G2 D, j+ F - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% S' o5 I! R# T4 ^/ U1 l+ Y2 Z. p general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% W' l) D+ u* Q* g spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 l$ H' g2 D$ i$ m* u price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability F% b' q4 N; w5 u. S6 l1 h
following two years of deterioration.+ M4 W ?+ X3 q$ Y; L' W9 Q2 p
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