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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( ], h3 a1 x+ ~2 l8 G$ i R" {/ h TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 n( i' V b6 b* mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! V' N5 F: E: i1 W* n U8 zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# P4 k. O. _9 T' B) W1 l2 Zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
& c4 i6 [0 V% p( P "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& X! u5 S2 {; D+ P: z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
, w- z" q1 v( g8 {1 x; N4 S" ?improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& K% p I: t2 k% ^1 M5 I) pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! j4 o) t) i. t9 H5 A- q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 o" ~: \: V6 n4 q7 z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" U' [, ]+ w1 J" _which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; a2 R, K6 |! {# o: R
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 s: }6 ~+ I4 o4 [5 n0 f) _7 N' g; w The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 i( C! N5 ~! q; L# n9 L6 iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 O( n8 o+ p. I1 J7 b5 o5 ^; _7 yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" k' P, Z% B" `# M5 J1 m* P7 bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 m0 H0 K" A9 e( Q" g& istandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ z) b2 Q6 I/ y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& C& y% r8 |7 ` E According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; |( }. `2 d% O$ _& E* I
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( v9 O) u) x( \& R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 g( y$ @2 r: \$ d6 K* x
historically depressed levels.
+ U; `7 Z2 n7 `* R Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! N. X* S! e/ ^
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
?' u" R4 R x! U4 `( Gprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 ^2 C! \! K. Ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: Y# j$ t+ e% f2 E' denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 _% k# W- r+ I7 E. Z
months ahead," added Hogue.5 z/ d4 Q9 p6 R* u( ^. l' v, x5 H
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
* R) }) Q7 E' X) }9 A6 i$ Ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 t, z' F- J- h4 A( i/ }( @! b8 y4 p
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ L2 Z' v" e* _+ u! S* E- ]3 O
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for+ W$ o$ P6 F3 G0 p* Y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 z7 O! c$ ]5 \0 B3 S5 H' b+ J ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only! h* {. ^- \1 Y+ M
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 o% B: S% F& T& n0 R The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 p& ?0 }6 k% U9 D) [: P0 o Y0 I! k
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
7 q( c: I& d' F/ Dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 V' X$ D4 A( i5 lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
; ~2 I" j+ y+ u) ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ U/ ~/ p" |. C) t# W+ T e
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 h8 K; V" s1 l/ ]+ B1 H2 J
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; s5 R Z( L! h4 I% ~0 Qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ u& |2 Y& r) o1 g8 a) s# E
" P2 f8 R, R- Z$ r& d" V2 l
<<
$ I5 L! Q% \( M9 E Highlights from across Canada:9 V/ w8 Q+ ]8 \4 w ]. h5 U- @
/ l9 K' A5 {; H6 ^& p5 R4 @5 O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has! b ]' J6 t; f' R( m! c
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 b: p) s) c! e* F, f" w: R
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 M) R5 j: ~$ ~5 X% w
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 \6 [' N/ p5 g) P# w8 f
since about the middle of 2007.& |6 q* C) N* ^. O1 g; i
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the R& H. {9 Y( W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 k2 o `$ X$ g decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' D, g+ e2 R" \; Y" h& e: l
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; g! U6 a0 E0 s% [& C
poor affordability levels.
' K' G2 _( d3 s5 W6 O3 t - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
1 U- A M, O. i6 N3 [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! b% a0 ^& I& c) @4 }+ F7 U2 g prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 h+ Y8 y" Z7 I- {- B. L+ I
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 @2 S- q# H$ J" {: x7 G( w minimize any downside risks.: Z# V: b# D8 @! Z$ n; w4 a
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ _4 v/ X8 r- W
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; x; N/ J5 F2 B- r r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 L5 h* ?& o, U' J5 j2 o 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) |% C9 }+ F }6 n- Y( X) k being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 \5 Z: @# c6 c1 g8 V
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
3 F! f' h& t8 K6 r Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) L+ K0 a; ^' V far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 r' w3 d; s. N* I% m- X" S% D reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 r. n! ~/ U, H4 V ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 J9 H1 O" y0 O$ i. x modestly in recent years.
m4 i8 N- h; M* w+ x - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: z% \: ^: N' g. ~, c4 w0 z N( b
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) g5 B9 Q7 ?7 Q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 [! W* p5 }9 J/ c/ l7 Q/ c price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- Y6 }) O& G% A3 V
following two years of deterioration.
2 y- T# P5 U* ~5 k) b( _ >> |
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