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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / r& \6 J$ ~# O% @; P- W
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
% C( e/ e4 @; _ b& A5 Q+ Qmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
B+ P0 l7 m. sgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- P- u5 a2 o0 G- f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 r, e+ ~- x+ } O
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 ^& ]- ~1 I; n4 H
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 Y- ]; X$ e7 q# vimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ A5 S3 @6 G/ ? a+ @/ @
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 P+ I7 r' t5 u, _1 p, q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* H, g% J' ?( c+ e hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ C9 X* k$ s+ s( {/ I$ d
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 {6 Y4 A: I' _( Q8 g6 s0 u6 Wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( f! w$ R% S7 ^ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ F) J) X" C; \$ u' a, z* D, y: \
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 k; q8 P& \6 C5 Bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 q! H! b3 o! c1 i) E% X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) @% w2 C" c+ R B6 U p5 C5 E/ bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& t; z! m* \3 E0 c, Vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 l0 X7 u% v* K/ s$ p. t0 r; J1 J8 V
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. Y5 I. b( l- [may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) `# ~9 `- R. u7 P5 _) \. C
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ p7 w) y+ [% W/ G; q: G
historically depressed levels.
8 n0 M e# T/ _$ f$ E: s8 {: `4 P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ a6 e) j: y1 Y' U0 A' \of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ C0 e% }7 n U! U7 T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 x$ @% }+ A) U5 ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" k/ B0 J8 t$ }$ v% d2 D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
9 N4 o) X7 k; Gmonths ahead," added Hogue.
" @7 I% K% C7 l8 o, A' F RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; M1 |1 h- L: U/ M5 g" Scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 t! ?; G& K. u1 X/ U42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.9 X" Q) B" Z! h
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 P/ ?9 E; j% d1 m
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& d7 o/ P) V8 c6 acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ O, N) e+ |7 e5 Dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ ^) f% g2 i/ X9 h$ { The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: E; y2 Y$ F% `. ]# s3 Q4 sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property5 l8 Q" l# o* V' E$ U0 C# u. z
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# i& j2 S `, ~8 ~* ]) Q+ H0 @ K
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& K! J) ~1 F1 Z# G- {/ w
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 V- @8 r$ R8 F A: S1 [$ F8 r
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* ^8 j/ ?2 o; b
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% a. i2 f! | C. Yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) s d5 g0 T1 g/ V3 L' |7 O4 ?
2 U) }& J* c k E
<<8 x5 H; F1 r0 F+ S* Q. ~. N U
Highlights from across Canada:
8 @: h* _( @! M3 h- B3 @ _
9 D- r) Q% G& s/ ?% ~, s! o - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 s4 @; y0 K+ A$ R3 @+ r: a8 C
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 s4 H- r( A2 o2 s& P7 s home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- u: e2 i, @! q% L z; `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- g( W$ c; J6 T' h3 Z* T
since about the middle of 2007.. J3 W6 E8 k! g9 M7 E" l
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ D1 d4 E9 v3 G1 _; X
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# l) R5 A2 _* l8 i
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still% V' y* t/ d. d3 J
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 f6 u2 L( f0 S" `6 f
poor affordability levels.
~ J* J8 s* D5 V5 T - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) [( i* V3 _& D7 e: Q' W& s& a8 J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* i6 U' E2 Y: s! w2 d/ G+ G: l( C
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 j) M5 j" v- l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 I3 z5 K: L3 r+ s minimize any downside risks.
' l4 c0 R+ ` h' P( H. d* Y1 m$ E7 l - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; g1 R% w2 b* l! Q4 L6 ~
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' S9 r# j6 h! D" x) f9 H3 ?5 N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ s, ?! c8 @) p: z, Q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 W( _2 j! Z+ X- l" v
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& S$ z4 \3 C& T, q; N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 x' u. k3 i2 E Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' ~0 P) N& p& D" g/ I1 S. A% `* g far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% d5 e, k$ L: c4 `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# w- g5 }2 U7 v+ V/ Z% [ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 c7 s3 ^; A# x/ t. U$ H modestly in recent years.# z+ X' K1 y, h' \7 L7 j$ U
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# y) u( z1 S( t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' K& ]8 [9 Y, S% D f" g0 k8 B
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ m% x p/ @8 l# ?6 J# B6 L9 v
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! ]* W' B$ l! q2 h# H3 P& T following two years of deterioration.
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