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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; E' c! L/ P6 i+ z$ q9 r! h9 O7 J
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) Y4 K+ ]* p, W6 D) r; ?middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* S1 w! t5 D2 ?$ O/ H5 c4 e& Mgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 ]$ ]! u9 h6 L) Y% W: B
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 ` N3 S! W! Z" }* c "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ c8 J' W+ }1 h# O7 b9 k$ ~5 Y) w' h7 ]: e7 _said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 q7 Y+ b; I n% H0 s( s2 G6 j" g
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" v# i# U6 m( j v$ b1 Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) F* `. l: G' L- c1 ]$ ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 n8 W3 a# m/ ]0 z/ vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- A' Y7 o4 _$ o/ N) n* J6 v$ o
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* A! Y9 e [1 e5 J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, a9 |! y' Z- W5 [- J The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) D' `/ C [2 U
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" ^. F2 i ]) j; r, f" i3 U1 ~home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
! Q2 f* Y$ h6 d$ g" F; h6 t Y, vAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: V$ w; K- E* Bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( f( R5 r% ~+ f1 cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& G- w" n/ G$ v9 Q% Y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 Z. R, l4 P {" c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' y6 j) Q# W4 R# Y$ i* C) J$ {8 ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 ^" e( B, y3 p2 q8 s
historically depressed levels.
/ u1 M/ J1 F C6 ~ i+ r0 u; r$ v Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 ], `8 U B$ G* w
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( G; ? Y6 S: {
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
/ s! |5 \7 J! g- _' C' nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' K+ ^2 s9 t; h8 L6 c8 O3 Z/ venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the+ d! z O& K o6 K/ M+ Z
months ahead," added Hogue.4 ~0 q4 X/ y) x
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! |2 T K4 b9 e) T2 m: K2 L& {
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ ^8 Y4 M/ B7 L( E g' Q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 V8 Q' x" Y* p: D8 X The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 q# v( h) E) Ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' E$ o; j: C& T6 ~! ~2 T" C: ]- \
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 N# |! p# w) s. h, U' ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( F+ h0 {9 f& ^4 v The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ k& L I* l1 i3 a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property B$ c2 A, ~' z3 e, x
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
f5 M: y) V% i; K2 h' q+ y+ Bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 ~3 z5 {0 t" v: F% B/ O Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ | p3 E; B* F: ]9 L7 E
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! E0 r0 J5 D p: @% z8 Y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( ?2 e4 J; P# Mper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, [0 y" Q/ B& S7 k/ D4 ^
5 k' [! ~. ^8 S4 S3 M <<
6 B$ S( Z; E: N Highlights from across Canada:* d, p3 T3 ?+ H
+ f( z. e( s2 } - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has" z& o3 A7 y0 ^
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* T& B9 j! z4 \) R! f- u, ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& p+ O" v9 ^6 h6 T only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ e# o; J+ R. a- r/ ]& y2 D
since about the middle of 2007.+ B, f4 l3 N/ H8 s2 `) c
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the$ P+ r' B Q6 W5 a% @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 b6 _' Q# U/ } \% K1 V- R2 _ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; h3 [& {7 Z x3 m6 R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 K4 {, \9 L2 u/ d2 r( `
poor affordability levels.
$ F, i4 c( v1 f/ I2 T" J/ [' a - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the U9 U" p. o+ r( w1 Q- o+ x/ X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ T+ E7 u9 c- H C+ c6 ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.) f+ v0 i' e- @2 l
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to7 m' a- h1 `2 j5 A
minimize any downside risks.' o& r) I0 g H; g) q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ `: {" h. ?& \. a conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 \' S; L X9 H8 B5 c# f
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" S: N% [3 N: m! I# u 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly k {" E4 Z$ U5 r" n
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 ?- d- i5 Z7 W- g( x7 n - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 Q& `! s! Q- J Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' V7 A4 r) r5 }% G, D' s. n' n far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 d6 y: x3 K/ P7 H& ^% w' i1 \ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& ?) o0 \ }1 C& E3 Q$ t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 _; e3 v0 @0 i2 E; T, S
modestly in recent years. ]! X; T% x, e* d
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! _ K* D Y& W6 t8 T) D
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 _8 j4 f2 H/ S# b/ C( | spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- a: a6 g( c$ r) P; [
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( f% x# g; P; b# I. d following two years of deterioration.1 S& a3 _* H: @+ p1 K6 y. N
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