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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; s) v/ W- s3 h$ Z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 v3 l' x" ?4 {5 S6 g" c! M7 amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive( x o+ C& L/ c/ J4 a v
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 L& `; M+ O& L8 ~according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- I1 v8 A+ }4 r4 m/ g0 N9 W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& e; D. k0 w1 u4 Psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, X; w) ]- \! I' G, h4 @
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability1 n# s0 @& W5 v* E& R2 I
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
$ w+ c! E9 \' @5 m) X$ q3 ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is u) k9 j# i- m1 z! D' p
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 \7 I2 J0 f; `" @# K& dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ y0 K2 j0 `! T. j
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* T- F7 }' c! O0 T6 k4 ^
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 ]- _$ u _5 s% Y4 ^8 u9 L* U
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# i/ K4 R$ i2 p- b* Qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" v( z U8 d- B+ eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# |2 t% Q) E4 }- E. x$ ]8 Y2 b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( P( T% M: g) B# x* O
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 O% R. x+ q5 |' f% v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! Y' O0 h$ E) f l0 r5 ]
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 V6 B3 E5 ?3 y- P8 R0 g1 Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! l8 }1 X) }& g6 I( whistorically depressed levels. A8 k- A1 R Q* q$ a7 D
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, F w3 Z' G0 m) [ C2 Z9 A# d
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ E3 j: j3 C8 D) o8 V( z$ Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 q1 }$ h9 N" }9 \
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! U3 D6 t( Y- z% A+ w
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* m; x2 y1 Y6 Y, _4 u) K e
months ahead," added Hogue./ j8 A, ?/ l; P! o( X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, E& _, N5 q( G8 l' [) ^: f
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary3 u+ Q8 ]/ F" Z1 h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
8 Z; I( O: m+ x/ y$ i The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 w( y3 H/ q9 }
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 _4 Z2 } X: G0 J* Q8 P4 g1 [* ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* l& H0 K; I/ F" M" R
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 ]0 `! M R9 G
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ b& c% I# `. c- j8 U: `3 P, E
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( M" h8 j9 y" [, z2 @0 y& y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 C3 X0 S6 U& Z/ G! w/ s
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
w( U2 O/ }" G- q' Ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ e8 W7 I2 H* Y S" K6 I0 v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 L( q' f# o0 V7 j) G5 n, {
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: ?9 Y* R8 l+ w) z% ?2 u! I4 Sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
) d& @; m1 r; T
+ z3 ?; Y: O; E# i9 P <<
% J+ T% L7 Z* R! j$ z3 T1 [8 G( k, j Highlights from across Canada:
. [" ~- L9 F/ g3 Y; |+ U, n0 @ Z! _" U
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 `; s% y6 |% D% ^: s# w& K: y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing& O' w' ^1 ?, ^5 ?2 Q q0 k
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; F2 G5 w3 f0 o, c) B
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track S, z2 ?. h& D
since about the middle of 2007.( P8 H( N, V G- _ ^: T9 f0 M7 K
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the0 J% P' S4 N' X8 m& Y9 x
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 p8 j$ H, m& h$ K& D3 } decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 R$ J3 P0 M7 Y/ t0 I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' Y5 }. z A1 e3 ^3 `, m
poor affordability levels.# h4 {% N1 ^1 d) w) o" V
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 A2 C: I$ R- I: X, s5 d+ W vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" ]! q E+ q7 f+ j+ ]# j* b& U
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- @* D! Z' P, v, A3 l5 c' K3 k Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& ^ ?3 p3 ]5 f6 g3 N2 P minimize any downside risks.
+ | E# c7 g1 T, {' M' `* \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' m+ f8 V' L- t7 e$ f. j) Q4 i! J
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' d- q& ^. a+ O9 L' q0 g% x3 r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
9 e6 p$ i6 u, z% E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& Y. k) k+ Q/ ]: z9 _4 t0 |! i being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 H' n& O* ^8 R; ]+ k# y; n9 \
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in4 B" x2 W6 j. x4 L/ S
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 {0 }8 B- a# N% Y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* G$ U, }0 ?8 [, Q' ~3 h$ c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" |: h3 R2 I2 c) E f. J8 o4 L. s( v- z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; C" n) [+ r" N3 M# W0 o# [
modestly in recent years.1 l5 H# P+ K4 ^) B3 W. q# d
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% g4 p" {* O6 X% o" z+ D' M general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 S( j8 f% |0 [8 \6 X4 X
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) b& `0 j) {5 v7 L
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 e. q# v% j8 j% \
following two years of deterioration.- G+ E9 M6 O5 P3 k \, ?
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