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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 F t" c2 ]% x. Z q2 O. O0 L I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, u; ~+ A% s# F, V# r5 Emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 z$ Y. r" s! `0 \: sgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 n3 V! e+ T) i- r
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 ?! I8 O1 N v+ C, {0 K4 d4 t9 M "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") U) L" I! a7 n7 {1 p8 {" C
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" t" }4 b9 `6 bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 y- a; q; e/ h5 Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.". ?7 l/ b& C) ]' \
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 Q# m5 o& j9 ?6 l+ kworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 h5 I' D* n7 H1 l) t/ O
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ b- E( s9 v2 f' c, k% vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ ^, @( E+ V& ]+ Z! y$ K6 c% G. R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. H" S( e( u3 [3 a- E3 M( t2 yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
) Q/ o% D1 W% n, ]" Dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* o) O& |' O- Y# d; q( \( ZAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" q8 F2 w; o6 {/ B4 Q5 h( N) s
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 t2 k$ K6 y, c( N, A& v! ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 d) J2 v5 l4 b7 q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- _7 p! ?+ X% U7 ? Z( `
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ b5 q2 T% c$ i& ]( R7 athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 g9 _9 X% I3 @historically depressed levels.* j$ }8 W# ?% V- o( `+ b& B+ `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 U5 O# x- W' S/ O% eof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 x5 o5 _4 y/ y3 t5 M/ s
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# q+ F& y, g8 s" Phands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. b1 V8 k1 S5 D* Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ W# _4 ?: v9 h9 D
months ahead," added Hogue.7 v1 I7 E" v: ^4 L3 E4 c' u
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# U% ] | j, v1 m+ u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& O$ G5 h. C% x0 S$ t" \ \/ a42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. O1 h- R3 R' @% |- R- c+ ^ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) u% U% o+ R! b- c6 j( B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 m- c* P5 a9 B5 W& X+ N; M2 Y& o0 z+ ycities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& C$ N( F1 K' t6 K7 k) p4 ~
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, a7 C" K2 G2 w2 K! _/ F3 x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 g* \+ Y& X( }2 F
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ R9 w1 |1 x$ @1 ^0 S5 S( d/ v, lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" E: A0 T# \: Y" I0 iincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" e' s$ l; M: n+ n7 U/ q5 k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ ^# r: y: w* T# L
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 ?. }" b* O/ b) K Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) Q- Q M9 c1 Y1 t0 Dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 d; ^ _* ^# Z2 l* H) F7 V" H9 I$ A
0 x! D+ X- E( D0 Z
<<
' o# u, b2 N: F& f9 q5 i* _7 J Highlights from across Canada:/ b; `. _# I4 R; `
6 W+ R$ ?9 u6 k( O/ ]% | - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
' N- d" y m& } intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 ], K6 b5 i* N
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* C" k: x5 K4 X! L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 _+ m+ F' ]& Y& e. M4 z0 K since about the middle of 2007.
* M% F8 m) Q ~5 J/ Y o, g( T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 i* a6 T& s5 D' N! e: m) P- K frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 `: F: m- D9 U! v6 m' ~
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! t3 F' ^% n3 t% s( v4 w4 i
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* N5 [' g# U. i P* V$ T5 K
poor affordability levels.
9 s' g( m2 _( k, Z/ H; @ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( i/ c0 l# @# m1 t6 w" v$ z vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; k5 T' ^6 ~# v# M' O4 n5 r7 H6 q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 I$ l4 b% F# a2 u
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 `$ p+ D3 X; F" q8 t
minimize any downside risks.
/ }1 a9 e, Z# @) r: P# k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 v6 ]# M) N& y. @1 A* q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 W: C# f2 i" L) z% a unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' O4 v( Q) n* Z$ ?6 }, _. s 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 r1 j3 d+ w$ n8 _
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.- ]$ ~; R: M& |: s2 Y1 Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, ~+ i5 G& I! w2 d Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus9 v1 }% B& W( r5 ^. w0 Y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, V; ]3 a" O& ]6 c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 ?( F; S/ M, [9 G+ z7 S+ e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ u# l3 T4 P# e- y0 ^" V' O modestly in recent years.: r) i" X6 i, e2 f+ j8 V. N2 ^# x
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. y" c% |. @5 n- j8 U5 s; T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 F" c% w% J+ M: r8 P. ? spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ Y+ R+ J, r5 ~4 h! s! r4 G/ a
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 E* @+ @( k+ A8 B4 ~% B
following two years of deterioration.
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