No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
$ ^5 q& H3 F% d; ?; b  g0 ]
* V8 [' U3 a' n5 A2 A; m3 VIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
$ _; i  f0 F( W# b
/ p3 j6 Y9 b0 R; [* }5 G0 e- x8 o"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
; Y% X6 w% n) q4 s8 H
) s8 a8 \: h" S1 dAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
8 \0 ~# C2 G) i, G( K! M
"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
# G* R2 j) G9 U4 p" R7 u
"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
& `- v" t" F8 C
+ T( h9 i& x! @  |6 b0 [' jSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
2 Y; q& k7 m/ E
' Q% ^5 e9 [' U4 R5 n% Z5 mTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
9 j' M& [0 ^" T. c; r3 |/ ^
1 j0 B& p/ ]. d$ s# e; j"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."

当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
; g# l( N4 I; `8 A7 U) J/ l
  z' x7 h3 ]6 U; y+ N: @: |$ ][ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]