No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
* _; E6 t: B! S* \
/ f0 u; W3 n0 Q# j5 g, O  DIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
. S! u% I. J; C4 ~$ x7 g# _0 p
"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

' T1 {  P4 t) |( i- PAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
2 s; D6 c9 c# s( N6 V
$ ^. W7 I# T( K7 i: P( a"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
7 t. y3 b3 M; R1 M+ l' d" G# Q
& b# F: D0 o: e5 \"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

; W8 Y' I" e4 W5 W8 i6 O/ uSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

) b% z$ k$ Q5 g: T/ vTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
6 W! A2 x8 m$ K2 U$ f; E1 e8 y
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
5 F- j( [- N3 L, ]看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
) Y. k! r: G; ?0 I# F9 E
" Y( h6 l, F5 K[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]