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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
R0 l1 D. M- n/ i, \; T* P5 S4 R" s' B2 [% e$ a2 z/ T" {
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
h1 U: @- Z& x5 b' h TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
' g0 X! P3 Z, C; h; e6 J6 n7 Lcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, g6 X( Y, D2 x5 m2 V5 A/ }. v# Y
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 u6 a8 T) m$ z3 cTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) i& Q* @* L; S8 O
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more- t2 |$ j" h4 q3 z/ k* l7 I+ i/ Y
upbeat.
; N) i3 j* t! u8 B6 Y. e; F3 U Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
& P* Z( e3 R S% E9 ^annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 f1 V" U0 W2 `/ G- L2 U3 ~
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# J! ?' X. r2 u* u0 g3 h( bestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
8 i6 g7 q7 E. Y; ~1 \' l Prepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.& c- I5 q* u3 p6 b: @ e* p: s4 p/ l9 l
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world( K" e+ D- i5 I( ^4 w, t
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
' Z5 ^7 l) k3 p According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
, a M% g9 t" p! j4 Q& @# {Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
0 G1 _, E+ r0 aenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
7 g( m% ^% x! B) ?be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 S! r1 A2 I3 W6 e9 O
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space." ~! P* e8 v8 j% u" p
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the; i+ r0 V8 E6 |! a/ A# H
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 Z4 ^" H& `, \
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
4 |) i7 n2 T0 t% q! a, f7 a2 L9 n, vremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
( R& m3 Z! r4 E% Ccorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
X) s" o/ w3 i( R% ~& Zvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
! p3 U% q: x+ d' a( f( K The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
) M+ _0 L( @) ?; ? z2 j4 grespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
6 Z* U/ h0 _0 y3 Ycommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
' ]( J+ K# Z9 E; Y; ]8 R: v& tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
* p9 L$ S @7 x/ Nespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating; G9 x9 j+ |6 m- T
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The. O, H! b8 V Q6 w1 I
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to: D; `- q- j$ m8 {2 e5 O. y8 @+ V
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
, g' n/ _! h* csingle-family housing looks overpriced.
! w2 p0 }% h5 K6 Q7 z6 \( u) R Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
! P6 P6 T; x: q: C- g2 mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian8 _. W/ o0 q; r$ J" R* V, H
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
& W5 b+ l* H' G2 ^higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 J1 v0 H& @( A% J0 l8 Inew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
4 b: i" i) ~+ Z" P- Mand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% r5 D3 a" C/ J/ u9 s6 s2 Vapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary9 p0 E* }4 t0 y0 }# i' A5 I
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
9 M- o& {) Z# ]shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
( B" |& U5 X- a9 u$ Nthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development* ?9 T) I/ q1 e" H
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch! c8 t5 h" B7 l8 b2 P
. x6 {6 a, \% H( a1 [5 y
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central/ I6 }) ~( D {; X ]5 U
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour5 u! x* P1 t& Z# c! L7 A
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back) {" y6 v5 {+ O9 t
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in6 D [2 e8 ?9 L" a! f% ~9 L5 `& R' m
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
' T( ~9 s1 \$ Dprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out6 M0 f/ I/ K; ]3 h% O
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment& M. s1 L! ]2 X- }" ^' S' B) e6 W
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 ?. K8 Z# T$ y4 j' Fwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
% x/ \" Z8 Z( xToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high( k( s" v/ \$ A( U" q
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 e: P5 Z w3 i0 ?! ~: | \) i3 X2 [+ ~# L& y7 N, }* a$ q
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one) P9 @& T; t H, Q9 `# O
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
! Z4 _; ^( h" v# H. d7 {& ^buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,- e' i' Y3 D% ? c0 y! ^0 j
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
. i, f% y/ Y, w+ k# a5 E6 B1 | OFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 [. U6 ~- N7 k+ I0 Y$ b4 J0 A
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the8 H; ~" e4 q0 r7 [' g
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays" B6 m1 }# o2 @" F. D: ~3 q+ c
strong, this market will continue to do well.. F# R0 K( F( A
# Q$ L# v4 f( O$ z" Z
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is) `& {5 d2 s. \' i6 h2 s
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
5 {8 ~( z0 J: }real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the! e" y5 N2 b# ?1 H |0 Q
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
$ L3 q; q. D) ~- `2 A( Kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy E4 \, q. s0 K" J
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
$ c. l' G- C9 C- Pfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%; ^- D- l: z4 x$ Z2 z
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very' E) ?' B; i5 ?& Y( t
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.( f3 e7 {5 Z! \+ E9 U
, y9 d6 I7 B& n* b Toronto
+ B6 U7 M3 `/ v' q4 k( b% U9 ^7 R. B; {+ |( d
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and& u" }9 |# z) L$ c) U
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is/ m! \$ W+ h5 V3 N, Y: ^5 k& H
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
. M" w$ }% M0 @8 zindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
/ P9 f" J+ s3 `3 m( pThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
/ B) L0 a8 O; `2 ]$ j5 I) @feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and: [4 S! K& y- W2 y. n
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.0 y7 y; y2 E8 s* O9 t' O r; _: p
6 o/ }0 @% t R Montreal y3 ^8 |9 Z' b5 x# I
5 V' V5 ~+ E0 l+ _5 E! Z9 n$ B Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall6 P v! l0 ^# {' Y! q
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up( u8 q+ W8 W; w" Y- o
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
7 ?9 V1 ^& Z. g& v0 X/ nCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
* \* {$ ^6 I ]; _9 L8 \sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors4 O- I; M+ X5 L" n3 ?
higher as a "hold" recommendation.% P: {" }2 m% f4 u
( @( E% T1 p$ `4 |4 \
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years( ^; O: Q7 _% U, W& q- ?: `
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy# L8 W+ e' i l( P3 |5 B
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
/ G* m# D5 [9 @! G! k+ z0 {near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; N3 j3 i* X+ ]* E0 o2 X
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current8 P9 u8 q: X/ t
prices."( ~# G3 n3 _$ S) l c9 J3 i
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
- ~" s# [3 w1 t. U6 owww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.+ |- z4 a8 E9 E0 L' H; q3 A) |3 A# t9 F
+ p4 j8 s' g6 M. \7 E; N2 F( ?
About PricewaterhouseCoopers" j, h F. T! y5 J% D* b8 h
( c# d2 ~( t& W. p. s
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
7 t2 r* r/ `! M: e* jtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its4 g! O1 K b6 j; H7 N" o: y
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
, t9 v- P: E8 `; k) {* nacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
`: y! R1 D6 u9 j+ dfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
8 u0 D2 d7 ]7 U1 A6 l# ?excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its2 |! B }* m& Z. ?2 [ L
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the. R! ]- \5 W& H9 _) s$ K
country.9 P' `1 C2 h- K, Y5 n- `
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario: s, O9 m. N) {/ c- m
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the5 }( t: [1 g5 @' V8 L
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,! E- Q6 r O! e: j2 a
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.8 ?+ P! K9 M. p& t/ Z
) d; }# L8 `$ {2 V, U
About the Urban Land Institute
, G3 j% c( a2 Y/ F) E0 H) K0 Y3 v, t8 j8 x( @( V
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and$ @, w% |% r" r9 Q! A5 s7 _8 S( D
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
+ s, X- o% W/ i+ I" E4 ~leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating* O$ t s5 c+ r+ b: C
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more8 G: Y* t6 O! ^' B* p0 w+ [
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development2 h2 H; D& F" J% Q K, l
disciplines.
0 a, s" t7 I+ f; p& O3 I( C R- y The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada., c3 y2 t1 A/ v' r( C4 D/ ~0 k
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
: M( L T h% E B+ ~Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is& m, b; X/ \* e9 z5 s, R! w: {- A
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be% m- `# P* ^; n" D: @& I' F
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,0 o) u- g5 j$ N/ ~3 u
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ `+ K1 I9 {. }* d# yHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,6 \, r! X! |" A' }" A, j
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
' R( }( m6 A6 Ncall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
1 A, j" C9 M, Othe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' j# V/ C# s4 J- w/ C4 u+ H; R
. }6 }2 H3 O) P% Y6 r/ s7 o4 }6 ~
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4 z% r8 m5 }8 ^
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,$ ?; Z) M* z" D+ V
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
6 c) Q y; Z) u" vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html8 X$ c& I! z& l X# [
$ W3 B; k6 l# l. y4 D0 y% R[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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