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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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4 x0 m; |1 i5 cDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 8 h2 n. z. ]+ T* r' j5 }
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US2 o$ d: ^4 i# C
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
+ }2 g0 x. S3 p: ^# \as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging8 I8 i- \, T9 W3 l% c; T" _( ?
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
1 e# ]- Y) o. W4 f# a) K( ?and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 _* ~; t8 y0 Q/ \. c
upbeat.
, N) E* R& g0 X2 e Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded% x1 c1 _* W! h6 G Q8 K
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
% `' l* @* j3 P! N/ rinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real4 r$ T( ?3 H! I# d- {2 g! h: V
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" M8 ?/ S' J! }" M- _representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
1 s: C$ C9 h1 L7 y4 YOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
b/ ]4 U7 D( d/ ]including Asia Pacific and Europe.* T, \+ J9 M: a& T) ~' ~3 h% ^
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian4 z/ T& x0 U) V( P! Y" d5 \* }" P7 v2 x3 d" O
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment5 r# ?2 t K! I2 c& u
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
+ v" k' C7 U* D4 D+ bbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
7 |: x4 y$ z+ u8 Bhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
% y: }8 ]4 B' s* @ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
2 z$ u7 K4 @' P. x0 Sborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game: @9 k- z0 z/ _' |1 B
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey$ x( i( S1 i o: [' x S
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US$ F, G" N* q( v0 E2 P0 t/ r7 w
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ T* C) C0 H0 u9 } W2 B6 Jvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.' K5 e( v( N. d& \
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( q+ g6 t5 R% c) u
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
3 e b! s* y# |) G7 Rcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land! ~9 y* v- t+ T: O
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country# ]; ]6 P8 o$ X: | ~
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating( l# f1 `. ?0 U3 C# y) o2 P
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 W7 o D% R) ?6 G% Q3 V: Qresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
+ L# ~: \+ o5 otake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and" j. L: m- b* u0 O, |3 \$ c/ U$ H
single-family housing looks overpriced.
: |. v) v! k4 g. @, X) _2 N, e Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ R. e6 o! `) a# [
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian7 L5 p$ A$ y5 K6 W& f
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
. B& f2 E4 M0 r0 u% ^2 o6 s# @' ghigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting! S6 j# Y( @; \5 h
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,) f) T% A8 j. }- ]
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental1 ?6 e( Z5 \) s% q U6 u
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
. i s1 T* F) D' d9 m3 Wwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
3 r3 E' i- K7 O6 \0 l& k* N' Ishortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# _& ~8 Q; t* G: W# u! ^: l; C
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development; y' Y& p1 F$ e
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.* ?7 U# u2 E8 n- Z4 a; |
( ]! o; o) b+ p Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, r/ u7 s3 Z# z- R' Jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour6 |+ U' g- r7 k8 G5 n
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
! S ^# `8 ]1 z7 p: kinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in6 A+ B# p( j0 V
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
. V2 P$ P( k1 @$ l+ | }3 Iprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' e, {: n2 `! p- y! z' j
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
) L8 _2 y9 b* U' `prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; e \, L$ X0 Hwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
6 }' L. r& \. U5 E# z5 s* V l+ hToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. }. A+ D$ C2 v h! i" \ W
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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; T+ }6 w* a6 [% o% r Calgary/Edmonton4 u5 o, D: l0 T9 _* c
; j; |3 L% d7 z) S" e1 W, ]; L Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
4 e3 V; _) b( h* f0 Xboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
( a! J* d: U+ k3 ^5 P, M( ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,$ ~5 l, l# z l% J' i* s5 |
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
! N5 O! U' U5 }) `2 ]7 tFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale/ J; I& x3 ]9 e6 C# \+ |, o' L0 `
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
9 W! E+ \, i5 i" F1 Q% fCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
2 K" |$ Q, W; u- ^% g B. Rstrong, this market will continue to do well.6 X6 i) G, u l$ [
0 Q0 s: Z3 t8 G; ~2 @: c, u
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
) E+ C7 s7 k0 }1 {booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous0 z" f, c9 g! o/ m- j" c/ j; h
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the ^8 R' k( h, Q2 @
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a2 u4 O* `; U# b. ~ O1 y
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy7 x! K+ Q/ Z& u$ z( W
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%3 O/ t: n& T% i1 F
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%4 Z" L* s' E" U; a! s2 R x+ a; j; q
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very& R$ C7 C+ v# M9 S4 x9 N
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.& K7 G' f* K5 g/ D* U" u# B6 I! @
( j* t9 B* a* `: ^ Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
5 c" p( c; w- @& g0 mmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" i4 L, C+ v9 n6 o! q5 y) J' g* l# erelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) K ~0 T4 U* @' vindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.8 ~! S- z3 K4 A
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square/ B0 o7 Z% O" E5 ~* z
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) i) Q# y6 C( P/ z0 f+ j# z2 ^Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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: t- @- A, d5 L! }* X Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall( f' U; g) g) x) o
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: c) J( A5 H1 H7 B5 Y* @" C" X, `shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in6 v8 j9 H2 v! j; X8 c
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
$ |9 q% ]5 b2 n4 O/ |$ ]0 Y) C( vsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
4 l2 t4 t7 O$ p. P% `higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
# c% M8 Q) ]/ Z9 jinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
; s2 f5 s4 J% c+ U( X9 Q3 ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 I; b) r; O. @. w* f1 n5 H
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
9 x9 s) S0 K$ e5 a, C1 Noverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current# s9 Q1 \+ y0 H
prices."# f/ f) r# l4 P
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
1 S" U. X) R% E" n/ X$ Uwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.( b! ~; h0 H/ X$ ~0 a& R
9 X1 m/ o7 ?3 q6 e6 G4 K
About PricewaterhouseCoopers1 u% ^% a3 q$ H( q$ f; ?+ s
. t& j2 h7 K8 G/ X% o# o8 j PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
) b; | q4 o% G L/ e9 A( qtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
8 h5 j$ b/ \" @( B" }) Y; Sclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries1 F) o5 h1 O2 B) c7 \8 Q
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop+ F/ J5 [5 K0 h) Y1 k9 E- t* H. j
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
) T4 t: K; [: gexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its: {7 ^+ Q+ ?2 K: e
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
) Z6 P2 q, B8 V7 E' Z/ Jcountry.* d$ z {% V2 J
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
, @+ s q9 ^* D$ C1 ?( _limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( Y3 y! u/ h; q! _& \, I- a
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
2 h- Q) ]5 ^6 B j& p. q) _each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.% }+ u2 x% t. Z) \: v F
5 N4 m9 M# t3 g W9 X* }; f( ^
About the Urban Land Institute& P& R0 A) w) k, q+ ]
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and; q+ s; P# k: o) E- J2 x4 ?8 k
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
; d- W! Y$ H1 c+ }1 {( dleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
2 H8 L* R Q: W! z0 _$ x$ o2 Nthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more, I( W9 @! o& d9 V O4 _* ]% n
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development/ g p1 U$ P n& { P5 w
disciplines.! a* f9 S* B* Q* I# F
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.9 z7 c+ P! ^+ `0 ?- f% r8 Y
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
2 e) L8 ]. T8 U& a+ PCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
: F: v) L2 b9 K1 bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be( C/ u# L T* \; r
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
- F2 T$ p: `/ _* t# @2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake, K; Y2 }% C# {! R V: @5 n, K
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
: u3 n6 l" w" T' IPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
. W) x; n) a& l" Z5 A6 lcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
- p0 `* G l6 H( ~" b' Xthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
- O2 e+ {" m3 [" T" Y2 W) Y(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
2 X* p( }4 @! w+ h7 Vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html& n# R2 u6 Y' j5 b! t5 W5 ^, ]6 T
. v) p; v0 N3 {1 K5 D. u0 B[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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