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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 P' K, s2 X. W5 g" s2 s TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US, o+ w( P/ e/ \5 z* z
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern' {) [; H6 G; F5 x- ~& p+ f( _" d
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
/ d: l5 F' `$ B, ~4 A1 B! R* G: STrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC); `7 E4 x* L; {
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
- V/ U9 j; I2 c0 [* J- Pupbeat.0 b% u/ u3 M. j1 O6 \+ s$ e
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
% {' I& L# o2 z: u! ~* l' e' ^, k% Qannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" R; E- M4 V O: Z) ^interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real& l/ j3 e, G5 M/ A
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
7 e4 F/ o7 r: D" m1 Orepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
6 j/ M$ |! {9 t6 [2 ^1 @Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world% b, K- [ h8 Y- Z
including Asia Pacific and Europe.3 e* ]% v+ E) ]$ ^
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian m' |' f U9 w$ C
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment- u. A4 A& ]& \! Y; a
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
% k5 A9 P+ H! Gbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record g4 r/ K0 k" @$ g& O
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
7 t, p$ S% x1 E" n6 X$ |1 U- D" G According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 i% K: ?7 i) _1 X( s& W4 D
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
2 e# a6 W1 J, A7 [2 H4 ?) y& ?; @speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey0 [: k, f& q3 [+ d8 S
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# ?6 _7 I% V- }8 ]0 ?5 a" gcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be: s9 v0 L- O) q% ^, h% w. H
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.; T1 u7 n: T# y c
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; e4 x9 i4 w) D1 @1 z# a0 W2 erespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by9 K, C7 }5 X0 N3 O$ R
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
D) ]* ?9 I* J/ xdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
! M$ t0 {* r4 k# b+ y3 Tespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
8 V( w+ \0 g8 k7 D/ sdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The+ h1 r7 U$ O1 i3 d1 r
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to+ G! N1 l W% }+ N) Y) J8 g; x
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
- \, o( n0 V8 ^. S: Q& K" Y: Gsingle-family housing looks overpriced.1 i8 r3 n2 Q: C+ T) c
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
9 G3 n1 T7 L$ ?3 f4 vtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
8 T0 m, B% M( R9 w$ ~; V( smetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 R" M( @9 E8 x# Z {) f( d( @/ w
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting8 L) C+ }$ A$ L7 l( q
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
- z/ s4 o) L7 L- E3 A a# ]. {' Qand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental: [9 `$ P0 e A8 _" N
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
0 D2 j3 s, a. i, z8 {western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing0 Z# j5 U3 g2 S, h2 B
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into" h! t9 ^2 \, v0 Y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development! N+ O. Z. c+ ?& P: U3 z
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
! ~$ G. F6 d: Pcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour/ ?% [1 D5 g3 E8 e; q
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
% @/ u* }" h% h9 t) H% Cinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in6 G. a( R7 b0 j4 A
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& }. m% g% |& {
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out/ s5 m K8 k! u
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment4 O: S2 C: r+ M1 L4 X# r K3 u, V0 g
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
$ u/ h- I- M" }4 Uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
7 j( |, {* V6 c" u4 |; Y$ cToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high3 i" \# o& j9 A/ q/ ]
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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# P/ z3 n8 r+ F+ O$ S7 w1 \ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
+ b& w/ D8 `& e) O8 fboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a; s% n {8 R* l# r& n
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
9 s) k3 }1 u0 c5 Q" h7 c# K+ V48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property." g! P7 W# x- {5 Y$ y2 N
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale# g9 c# o8 }/ J! F$ |7 U- ~ n
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
- M8 a! f6 ]8 A# PCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# h. c1 b- n* J: V- }9 h' [& Ystrong, this market will continue to do well.' m1 D: a: H A, V8 H- h3 H! h! q7 t
, I: E$ ^" R/ ]+ d" J, T( H& F
Vancouver
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. Q+ G) R6 T, x1 f Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is$ W1 d' }1 `6 V, }
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
' m: p. Z& Z0 U. A5 @* P; u% jreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the2 U% \. K; _1 l( h' e. E
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a* w4 j8 i2 g& c5 `
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
0 I* x$ r/ `! `# j1 B7 krecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
- o j5 I6 Z% v- ~+ Ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%; H6 F' m2 _2 x0 y
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; j0 M# z0 e/ r. `/ L( ]good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto. d; m9 c7 H; R7 d$ o; y& i" p
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
" u/ a3 c+ {" e+ J. Xmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is% b/ ^. N F! P% @- \! g0 S
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) Y1 e" f' e( C6 A& _industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; I1 g l* i: nThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square/ B) |) s- Y. ]. u% \( r; H
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and3 J6 K$ T* Z* W: S" T2 _# h4 N
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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, ~ W; m7 t* Y+ f3 i+ n Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
8 s! Z+ k, `9 c( ~+ R3 Cgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up* A8 A* z# Z' e% b9 m
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
8 t* p; A g3 z0 wCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
; j O; i7 F- Rsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors, }0 s4 R1 T1 b# K1 P' P5 p& W8 i
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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9 X" T( V9 p7 ?( f7 ]" N/ K0 v3 q The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
; V/ I3 F2 j7 L- C* ^7 v1 uinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
/ J9 m3 W3 P% H, qmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
8 d7 c9 n* r5 ?) r& I, n* t1 Tnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
( e, D& m6 {4 J m( n( }/ Qoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
/ }* j% k* \1 V( h2 c+ T, T! fprices."5 H# g' c: D' V) A
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 E5 q: r1 f# C) h {( w) K6 g
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 d! {, Z. _# G3 t! F# M+ ]
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,2 U9 ?" m ?/ ?% |& M3 R
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its+ J. l9 u$ @$ A- I& i2 Q+ D
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries8 \. w7 ~7 i; l# n9 z2 {7 h
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
- ^( S- O1 I8 j1 o6 h8 a. {fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' f0 }4 A4 [+ I" V* ]3 T
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 w7 n" u' `2 J! V) q' D; }
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the: A1 I# O" s' _1 j6 l
country.. B* S9 s9 p8 M2 d; u* Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 k5 {" g; x4 @6 b. D1 f6 ~
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ L' j5 b/ U6 s D- s" ZPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,7 i* j6 P2 S: O
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.* |5 v: m/ K; u( k' {( f' P5 o; s/ K
' G, x4 L2 [2 i$ @2 R( j& z+ `
About the Urban Land Institute
8 {- [6 g0 @, N2 x4 Z0 m# {0 l/ V* b2 z
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and. A. I: Q2 v+ M0 f
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide: X5 u1 c5 K" r7 }- d; j
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating q# w& `( P: F/ g
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more. Y. B$ m& s$ ]2 Z& A& j( C
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development6 C7 l9 R" n' ?6 B W
disciplines.
3 _+ g3 |8 f' U( I% q1 P( J$ n The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.* r5 X/ O! ^0 l1 g' t" ]
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District y7 ~8 n% a, E. P, F0 I
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is2 ~5 V) P: P3 g7 v' L
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be+ R2 r+ U3 `! B6 D/ K, K1 G% T
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
$ c$ k7 B0 J7 A! _+ T+ M0 J2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake y0 t- U* p) b0 R3 y
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
! N: W* ~! ?, f: i; ] IPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please5 K- G4 s7 _- p8 R$ \" M
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
6 h6 v# u2 D" X5 g; u. cthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.# E5 R/ M- P% r+ F& A# V9 t
+ @- M- [; S2 x* ?1 x$ w
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+ r% b6 D! X' {! _& rFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
E, w, @3 U( V1 Z4 N' Y; |(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com* g( h$ ?0 h' @3 |0 e
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html0 i1 u+ N6 ^- Z5 _, ?0 a ]9 R
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