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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
6 \) [: e9 N# R! r0 `: E4 B TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
+ \, i: L, f8 E0 i, z7 I1 G2 H( G% \commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, k4 j7 `5 |/ I% |, \
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
# N6 R' Q$ a3 g2 J- STrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)# E6 i& k7 [3 r1 k
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more7 T7 s. q e, _. I
upbeat.
' V/ }, ?1 n4 p& L: A5 T, k Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 M* k9 I4 K9 F: \
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
9 }; @. ^3 f0 F r, Binterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
! K, |; X2 j! G }5 L9 Iestate experts, including investors, developers, property company- |- f3 h9 B% }* {# p* J" i
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
( [ u( J( Q' _# ?* X% J& g( n9 X& |Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
7 E( ~* M6 l# K1 `including Asia Pacific and Europe.# Q5 y; J( K3 V
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
9 \& v. k4 I$ R9 K( rReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment6 v& k, A+ e# _& Q# H6 h
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to/ }3 V5 s6 B7 S( H6 O `- U' ]
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record5 M8 ?+ L V/ f9 y
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.", b3 s& d/ J0 W, m
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the5 d8 q0 k+ L+ p9 V: k! b. ?8 ~
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
2 z. n( H" O8 V4 y# u' `6 Hspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
$ \; |- M2 {% dremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US1 x3 k6 M2 a7 C
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
( A# f* M2 C, C. K- W$ Ivery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
( u6 }5 q' }& M, k5 s% p" v& L The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! d( v' ^1 u) j$ y( }
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
5 P* v+ _8 {, C3 V: Ycommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
: v& q# s6 D Q. O+ N% vdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
: v& q' V' L; fespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
: y% q" m5 t! [; _0 Zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
Q3 l" N7 ^ nresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to1 C0 s1 n2 P' v' \
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
0 c0 E2 {8 ?/ `/ V- C3 j" zsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
2 k" n% R. m8 h7 T0 W Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with4 ~1 V/ h3 |, P
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
4 W+ c* l+ j' o% T9 Y4 @metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push5 c" B) m2 v5 x) {9 \$ d
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting/ J2 `* s6 i) C& ]% P* i+ X7 _3 P
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
' j! v" M' T8 M/ d5 Pand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
* ~. s) U9 j) F6 M, zapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary# L2 |+ R3 E7 T' Z/ V% Y- g
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing& H7 {* f, f% T- U$ w8 r
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into) k' l1 L9 J) K' K7 u5 n* U. D
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
7 s1 q! R) F" M4 D8 qin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
1 K5 C( X0 j5 A7 b8 o
8 I7 n7 }% u; a Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
# T5 k4 M! L2 ]& m( q/ K& pcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
& @5 N6 F/ g7 r5 D! P" Tneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
" k1 J" F9 w2 E, T; z# Tinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
" d* Q6 l) q& d6 o5 qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) ]* {1 B I( a! D' Q2 dprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
. M1 S. t- m* u" P5 Q* _west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment* f" c+ {7 | y( G) j) c
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain0 y( D. C2 I* [8 S4 g4 j+ w
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
0 A6 G7 Y2 s$ V- {, o5 FToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high* y6 Z; r1 z; O
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) l/ o; S1 n, i j( J' ~9 t/ [3 r
- L) U3 K" w" s$ v x. a, N Calgary/Edmonton6 F9 Z. R% O3 _: g) N
5 ]( U _' l% ~( M5 g+ X
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one. }2 r. l1 ^9 @, j
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& O8 E8 B4 K, bbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,1 N* }* m. K% _4 k9 \. i( y
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
5 @, q( n/ P% T F3 c A& B) lFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
$ w3 i3 p+ }. I" t! Y @( ~Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the; O6 g$ g3 M+ h6 m$ h
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays n% H/ |: v3 `/ v/ U( A( Y5 _7 U8 t
strong, this market will continue to do well., N/ A8 A. j5 U3 N7 A
7 ^( S- \0 h3 R$ h% ?3 P3 ]- A Vancouver
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( B. o" N. g$ j k& B Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is7 C( j& C; D( x, {% R& [5 s4 |0 G( H# m
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous, X% _6 D" v" ]1 w5 {; p/ z( @
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the+ W) ?$ i1 o2 G5 q1 S4 `9 b, V! b
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
: U0 z5 r9 g9 R9 g5 \9 jgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
+ `( N. ? l! T |recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%5 q% r+ M$ S/ a2 P$ r/ h2 q
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%7 L8 m5 l% i' V3 N( s
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
% c9 l' k4 d4 \# v5 O( F: Y0 C! pgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.4 b' Q6 U4 e, N8 m
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Toronto) [4 m3 b D* Y) j$ B
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and n/ m8 X4 Y) P( q
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
' x8 W. {: W; o6 }. g( mrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing0 ]7 r H# v0 L+ w6 q: b# x$ q
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
/ N$ p* L# P" X: i0 y' ]$ CThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square: d3 _+ u+ H. H. C' m/ G
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
: M: u9 L5 o4 V0 u9 D jApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.( ?; e o+ }9 |: c$ L
6 P! R( Z+ ]+ _- P Montreal
* q0 ~+ r+ O# }' P' Y8 E) M& G$ J+ L% V2 p- G
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. C2 f: {# j9 Z* \, q( |+ R
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up. y1 K6 c. s% j, |) r9 h
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
/ c7 Y/ c! C+ ], E7 oCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate) P) j" T! {: k
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
3 ]' v Y. t: w; Lhigher as a "hold" recommendation.( ~0 m, F4 v; B5 ^1 W: e( q3 f
) N$ S) A2 @6 U8 G; N5 ^0 r* h The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
: |# y( P2 c- Ninclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy q2 h( G8 u% ^4 H+ }, I5 z% S% Q3 Q+ z8 `
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
1 L& j" n* y8 e1 K3 ]7 p# inear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest5 H' N$ e- P- b! A& c5 A6 J
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current( M; ^3 T4 f4 z7 f. p) q
prices."
0 i& T$ u& b9 V3 ^- n: q A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# ?' y8 X: `2 r0 p0 g- uwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.3 @4 s0 O4 H& O/ [
7 s) c3 \ W3 o$ f2 j5 ~) | About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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2 m. c$ \# U* H PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
, ~- n6 _6 \' D5 v9 V9 m6 p3 B2 |tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its8 o8 t k$ u8 {9 T' w' ]
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries9 @7 U7 ]. x) ]. j
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
+ M9 R0 R) I2 ]/ Y0 S2 ]2 N+ Vfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
( i! ` j) j5 U* Bexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
' a' [- ?1 g# B6 G7 ?+ Hrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 \' y; O n2 }; h/ Y1 S- ]8 Lcountry." b* Z. [# k# f
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( k! ^' g, i! [3 g# u, r! W
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the$ |1 y# J, W ]
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
6 G- S" N" S0 p+ g- oeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
8 R Z2 N9 h! G+ u* }8 Z. `6 J; }2 A
* l1 l, A s. P) o; w! C8 ^ About the Urban Land Institute
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4 Q: t- `" |2 g8 d+ Z The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and8 K3 a4 g0 a7 D/ F
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide5 p% F9 }5 u# a8 a _! C
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
. D& _) _2 ], p" {thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more. h) b: N6 g# @. Q# ]
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development; A9 N6 N) h, @6 L
disciplines.
. _2 g% [0 @7 B The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' {4 y' b5 I1 R t" ~9 w# d9 S& Z
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
6 `" G" ~+ }! ECouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 E6 J& p+ \1 }% X; }; ~' p
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
4 j: ]5 ^/ f( E: @3 `* u. whosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,& [+ l; C# K, \7 l# k! b9 C; @
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ o* C+ y2 x# \& ]: tHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,1 h2 i9 O. w) O3 X. _: m
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please' b! c- l. R8 }6 w) E1 e( V
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
& Z- t+ l; {: m: a4 Ythe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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( _8 [% x" x# p, R5 d0 ^
$ p1 s4 U9 c2 R% ~% r. K- `& h4 C5 rFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
a) P, X } g4 K2 p' x) C/ f(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# p8 B% k+ r0 ?* t; F$ G. E! ehttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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