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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ; H. N( o' t$ p" z$ {$ I
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
' q& D4 Q& ^1 g5 i( }- t" Z+ E TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US2 f" ?" K6 K7 }4 E" E* f3 {6 `2 N
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern4 }! k7 E" m* s. a
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging7 b" I3 r- {4 T$ Q
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
8 _( w g5 ~: ]8 _+ [and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; d1 A% k: \. Z7 W7 x% T
upbeat.6 G1 M( {3 q8 G
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
3 X! ?4 o+ f) T! V1 g3 c; d E, Aannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects! t4 u' ~% l+ y) F3 y
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
+ I. S8 p" E$ ]1 Festate experts, including investors, developers, property company
) k4 r* H" v" C, J5 ?6 m* {representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
. G2 L* ?# X8 i% ]- }. L9 f% l' POther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
& O% b& r1 d) [& S& ^5 o8 eincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.2 K7 ?. c: `- K6 i
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! D! p9 I9 e) L1 T4 lReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: j% c4 u! f5 l; s& C- d. {1 H
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to& @) l5 h. M/ C8 i
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
7 f% d# U# ~6 C- L, g8 d, d% chighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
: o( _4 A6 E5 y. `6 d According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the ~" o% d, h, h
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game/ k3 L9 l( k5 e" a$ P9 }, o t
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
/ r& R* v% O. [) ]4 b9 fremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US1 W" b! y+ M- T" W/ l# O
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ M* @) ?0 h3 Wvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
/ H5 Q. r& @/ N) j( P The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
( W- z& l1 v! frespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
9 E1 w! q9 ?% I3 Scommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! E0 u; d8 S7 \" F7 a: idevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
' C0 M0 E2 Y1 E lespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating0 a) y( X; j7 K+ z) C
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The0 p q3 B- S- A/ J
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ }- d* R3 N. j/ w( e$ Ntake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
# ~# ?: m) w, ?+ b Zsingle-family housing looks overpriced.3 Q3 t7 G2 T( k; d; {
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with& v$ |- Y, v X9 G4 A' w7 X
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ O$ i/ g+ A, X9 H
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) I* Q) v- p; t4 u5 [5 I
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting" f. m$ w! W4 x+ i, T8 b7 [" z
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
5 E6 z& q8 a/ M9 J+ k# A0 r% vand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental" z5 ~* R6 F1 n' f& S
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary. @, t3 ], _$ p! j6 C- X$ R" ?# X
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
$ |+ O6 O9 q7 o2 X6 zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
7 t$ Q- s8 h. U$ }$ Jthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
! p6 _5 R& ~* p: E @* g4 [in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
& R3 d- N" G2 A1 k9 ?% B' {6 s1 G8 |
Canadian Markets to Watch: a7 l5 E* [$ w- d% o2 y
$ o8 ` I$ u" }0 S6 U# J The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central0 Y" s) x; @1 o$ o: M
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour0 i) A. }, e# N; g
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
1 p; @5 V& i5 ` F( j9 [. zinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
$ j; _. v1 f! rdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical6 f0 T; l. }4 r4 T4 P" H' e+ u
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out/ z6 t2 ^! B% |
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment# C6 t' m6 F, ]* V
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( @" B) z4 C T! _9 ]whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
6 }# \ u \* H" } T& g: WToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. J8 s, B' q2 r1 n" k8 L
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 O( @( l) i& y1 u+ h: k
5 e; M$ D) X6 ^1 o! j Calgary/Edmonton7 l) S5 v. x+ n
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 B* ]3 j6 x# [6 Z
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
5 r* A [- e, ]6 q4 j$ p0 Obuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
3 U2 @2 Q$ d0 ]8 Z48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.: A2 I& d. ]' }
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
0 I R" ~. W$ }4 [% fHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the' N# z3 o% i% }! ?) Q
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays- b' m3 S( T9 S6 ?8 k6 n# H
strong, this market will continue to do well.0 o& B( }5 W# D; s, J1 D6 V
' Y. ^) M& g" e4 E0 c, S2 p* ^ Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is6 u( }* V- T; d2 }. |
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 m, V2 j: J+ Lreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
' \3 z+ @: h C8 _) Emarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
9 ~1 }( k0 W" e2 [; S5 Ygrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
- }( ~+ F! S# `7 K% Rrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%0 X, V a! Z9 J' W% W2 y7 u1 h
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
+ G/ h: Z) W* e+ I3 v7 z! sfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
6 Y9 Y |5 S5 a5 I Rgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.+ q$ g m" I* ?. P
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Toronto7 Z% m3 P3 R5 w1 d9 y% ]! S
4 R9 B, ?5 Q" p' k" n' j q$ } Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and9 \, ?' t, C% C3 p6 y% f! j
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
* S7 i, A$ T. v- S! rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; t, j% B1 [3 w) A
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.1 D* I, V# u6 g: s
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
. o! S6 f$ b5 n3 qfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 M5 b3 i3 G$ I% J% k7 Z4 ^! E" ^Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
/ ]# k: S" Y( U: H" C
* U1 `( S: I. _1 c6 B Montreal
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0 P9 |2 u! d9 q2 C4 R Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. Z; K, \/ s. U+ L1 z9 u. A3 ygrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 j: S' Z/ F$ ~7 hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in* S: [+ L: L3 k& v) s
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate" ?/ M" o9 t y+ A, {7 p
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- U( ?% S, m6 n5 M$ qhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years9 b, A% ~9 a9 M4 ^$ X5 V' y8 s
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
, ?" C# b+ y- T$ S, O4 N1 vmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; z, G- V8 E) j. O0 b
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest! p8 S- k- I+ D, |# r! n3 o
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current, E" C; k+ k& H. M1 |
prices."9 W, R N. ]% |2 T' f
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
8 z0 j6 [9 i2 [1 R4 t5 a: y" j. T& ywww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.$ W* `7 m P; W) Q
$ s. a3 S3 @7 N- Y About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ Z0 h( \- y' a: A9 ]. y
& d& k: i1 Y) v# o: z0 O
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ e0 m8 r* o" `! F
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
1 P: |8 Z4 S9 }clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) r' k( i# ]) L7 `5 Q1 [
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
% x& p7 A' g4 Q i* J, qfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' V; a1 L* z; X
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
) w% M9 I# o4 l6 @1 ~/ P$ Grelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
( e! Y/ }5 }/ j. rcountry.! l2 u) c6 ]) l. G' M
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
; d9 y0 m; {5 l" ilimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the1 [' C" X* \" D. x7 D' I4 X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,3 I; B0 b/ O+ E+ B4 O
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.+ U4 ?4 s0 l9 w, y
z3 j9 J9 r6 x! | About the Urban Land Institute
* ]9 K$ s0 y1 S+ T
9 w% l- x( M6 f7 Q& | The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and5 f; P0 Z6 M6 d& x' A8 Z
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide+ A; I Q" h0 ~3 }
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
7 N" a# z: h* i- N1 {+ o othriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ G4 V9 D! A$ g: V; a5 D0 Kthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
, z' r4 j; a r3 o3 K5 k9 Gdisciplines.* [+ g t4 m5 W6 t* ^& k
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
5 @. @: @8 h7 KWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District" X- P3 X* U/ W3 B$ r, l7 n/ R
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
6 Z" ]! a* ]! A i9 J* qnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
' T+ e6 ]& ?- ]% ?& Qhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,8 @) N! z& I; k/ C; y9 x
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake; r& ~$ r" H- {) {4 J
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
5 c; W6 N2 F W% Z+ Q* ?+ {3 GPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
5 m# a! o6 K) icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on: n T- |0 T- l. [* y0 b
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,. ?# G9 y- M) `3 m- a, Q1 S, W
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com, U! b; R" z6 u3 J# a" w3 c. n d
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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