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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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1 H0 D0 a9 v6 K$ j0 MDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
% `6 O% i9 p% K* R TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US* [$ ?$ f/ r. J3 {$ D
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern A! Q7 Z$ K& a5 s& i( B& M
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging* o: d( F# B7 w9 j! e8 O
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)! F0 y8 G/ _5 O2 v2 A: C8 J( e
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more: n. A# @7 j9 n6 k
upbeat.8 Z9 t+ M% B- s" s' a2 L
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded; Y9 b( X' H1 o
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects! y0 W3 U6 y! i. f3 i2 d$ h, Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
; w! f5 A5 |2 A( I/ t6 eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
; U) {( u" K8 [! Xrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.# h& |+ c( i% G
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world! V) F' v7 @) E/ Y) a$ P9 Q
including Asia Pacific and Europe.$ U' ^- `+ T" Y P; ~' ?. A# ?
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
) P9 B, F V$ \9 e1 \, ^" \9 z- VReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
/ e7 o" q0 R8 Y, Eenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 K; K9 G& F! O7 Q0 p2 \be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record2 f/ d" c# ~- [- k3 E
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."8 F/ a5 Z0 X/ ]
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& W0 d p* r) M D( \5 \& f1 b
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game& {' }& F. k" Z1 W$ f& y r
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# l W; l0 r1 a/ bremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
: D5 ~ U. K, D8 G/ ]correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be$ _( o. o J0 s' P' U
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
' \: j& N: q0 @1 A The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
8 v2 y: D7 ?) |, s3 {( brespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by2 k- t0 E$ [2 B# V6 k* h
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
% \# N+ h i% B4 X2 l8 s3 i: bdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
+ I# M" J2 [, b5 Z. w& eespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
$ }! z t* p& u& Z. Q8 b9 t2 Ndevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
% U! F8 P! Y( S5 R; sresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 e8 U9 {- @- D/ o) `( ^' d2 H8 ^
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
5 ?5 E) q8 O7 c- q0 f0 D: xsingle-family housing looks overpriced. C: W$ H/ i E5 ]" ^0 [
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: I2 J6 U9 A7 ?2 g+ r4 n4 G
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
# H, ?* B. _* l* T3 o- Q0 D1 zmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
0 x4 ~; @* k0 y% f7 Y0 lhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting4 V8 P3 T- i7 g- a0 j1 l
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
: k4 n# P9 X6 \/ Q- @and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
5 {9 y* [) J. P3 u; {apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary3 h) {. U& ^1 |: q+ y. x
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing# M. n& [/ R* u6 w8 o. p3 B
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
7 }$ E; w" h; tthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development0 _# g! H- S: W* a
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) O2 l: |: U3 r. {
0 o W8 c; w+ W+ T8 m0 A
Canadian Markets to Watch
, H4 {6 O3 O0 q3 X& j1 B/ s: m' v7 z; y9 U) T+ Z
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
! @9 B9 e8 e5 U2 S/ Pcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour7 y6 q0 a) Y) n0 S2 @
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
: k c' Z9 q' \/ linto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
$ s* D2 `) m ^+ ~& j! l, {downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical3 x4 R3 s1 r+ C. b( p
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
' v1 |( m4 _- V' Z+ }1 Z: k0 q0 [+ Rwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
+ L& Z+ c3 s; `2 j! zprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( ?3 T# L/ [" W- P+ nwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.% H( s8 Z! g |& Z0 `0 l- K, {' y
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
4 T, A- `! `8 m% ~; N$ sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ Y7 @$ O, h& n! Y' D8 O
' [7 }8 O3 @7 F R5 R/ M Calgary/Edmonton
, ?5 X c+ }( ~5 l8 `/ g1 j8 p
. Y) j i. X6 A" S$ b$ s' v; ] Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
& V# X! o* Y( q$ z, V8 h6 Rboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
0 j# p* V" {' i! {; f+ |buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
/ M* t2 f6 y! c* l- Y48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ x* r. P) l5 r9 UFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
2 }2 n) y, m+ G( D" A& iHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the/ C3 \& E U u/ j. L8 h" z) o
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
- t3 ]% E/ ^! H/ R3 X( T; b: astrong, this market will continue to do well.
) m, w B* d; q7 l O6 f
/ T$ w5 P. M$ V' b Vancouver: W2 K3 O7 P1 x5 _# Y- _8 E
3 h6 d6 ?2 q) E9 ?) z: O( t Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is" z- s4 ?+ K2 N- x8 ^. l0 Q r2 _
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 |" x! t% J! t& Y3 Preal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the+ y" q9 t/ d7 b/ G1 b# K2 F
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a7 O4 h4 d1 T9 c/ m0 z8 F+ a& R
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
0 u8 `! [- j4 i3 [. e7 o/ y; y. v' irecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
+ ]6 K$ X! h1 x6 ^: _+ O& z2 yfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
- ^: `: h; t: Y/ b2 _4 q+ j4 |% yfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very5 F' W5 S7 E# p( s2 ?/ [
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
5 Q2 b& l) X) h3 X, |5 j7 \8 X; ^1 B* A5 L) a$ `
Toronto
% }, `3 L y: o- r) s- t y; |9 {. n, Q& b# @1 w% l
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and2 I4 ]& ?2 ?. L- g( s
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
6 \; U/ J, A% t( o" G& d `relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
; {3 W) F( P& Dindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.! Z8 _) Z5 v6 q1 [) Y
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
6 i+ H) i# q: t& }! Vfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
4 t6 }. x- }3 v) A+ }Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
; b. [7 T' ?4 u9 d, B+ b: O8 I8 t4 o$ U/ w0 p o
Montreal# N- ~% A* H( {$ P( |
7 \. R! G) [+ u
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall6 ]- [# z7 Y2 o' t }
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 [! c* B6 N0 `- }( B+ G( Lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 v, N5 F0 B( E' ? S zCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate _6 Z' ~2 ~7 o- ~& f
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors, L* [/ X7 l/ G) G! W
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
; Y) E3 q/ h# C5 ]; x6 g
; ?+ Z% l% K V The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' n5 x3 f' Y9 c+ V6 {& F- S* V' Dinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 S1 Z7 }- w/ V& ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 u, J( M& k, ^; ?# ^, r
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
7 L4 D1 o2 `! b, w. V$ roverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
) M2 n9 [, V0 q+ m$ g. ]- fprices."
6 b) P. }+ W7 Z. H: v! q" e A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at4 x0 i. ?3 ?: j4 v" c3 [
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre., h2 Y: j1 E' a9 P( j. N3 e
- n( p- `, z( o7 C About PricewaterhouseCoopers
8 o8 R( l; @$ E" D6 u4 ~# L1 H; `! w2 G4 S7 Q+ u8 z
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
2 f) u i! D4 W' jtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ H. i+ |. j# J# ?" V
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
+ ^8 B8 n8 e+ k, e& Y2 D4 Xacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
* X2 q0 u+ S- C. `fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 i7 \. T2 m' ^# @0 C1 T( pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
" h* V. T# z; z1 z# Y7 q, A3 c% L4 `related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
! ?) H6 l7 n" p3 }! hcountry.
4 |2 u) v) S7 s "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario/ P3 d; }+ Y8 i+ D2 B7 x2 r9 K
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the* Z# A2 y: s a, N7 F( b* v2 \
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
1 q, L+ q$ @7 z$ d0 t6 e4 h4 Veach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.! N& J3 g9 h" |
" k) U0 A l7 o# A! A About the Urban Land Institute
* {" s0 _! ]& g3 n3 n1 \
; _0 i R! @6 ^1 G T- A The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
7 Y9 e" v& Q! y) P" K0 A9 Jresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
5 O& z5 ]4 R- p! w4 f7 [$ ^leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( c5 _; {2 p, o. _ b7 ~) s) ^thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
, l! F) ~' c( Hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
, P8 k. f" T3 jdisciplines.$ I( j) x( w) }4 W$ E
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
: D* W2 N6 H7 NWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District6 N" M! ]! d! \" O" @! v' _9 J
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is! ]" T# x2 N( w: ~8 a: ^. q
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be _* P( D* f6 E' q! i. }/ S
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
7 r0 b3 b! P7 ^' p6 |2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
6 C% K% ^) i* pHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
8 y; [5 z$ a+ A& J% D5 {$ fPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
U: r0 ^9 c3 r) I v" \4 W. s/ Icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
+ ^% D! W" R# u( _$ Q r( @the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 C5 u7 A' z1 C; a( Y( \; Z/ A$ ~" ?* a, b% |' Y, _4 v
2 I( T% c% a, n; J. V c
+ r0 f" m, i: p$ T9 OFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,5 J% n0 ?+ g& s
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
( s' {: b7 t4 ^/ m0 Q2 nhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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