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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
5 J0 b. d8 w! j2 ^9 x2 f7 Z+ O- W* S. V. q- k5 _
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
. ]- _' M0 _6 [9 x/ q TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
+ E; [6 A+ [+ N; g3 wcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( W, S" g' h4 W( r' @, @
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
3 H3 I$ d% O7 F: a# kTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 r+ `- w" R7 f6 Z1 B$ }# e0 r! h6 A/ Fand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
/ N% M) a+ y- oupbeat.2 [3 _4 S a' g* }
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded9 [! M" a& Z5 p, l5 s: y( E
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects- y+ j' }: l8 S$ C# ^
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real1 c: S- |5 q9 R$ @: H9 O
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
) E% \$ P7 ]3 h# Y1 C7 C$ {9 trepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
5 w4 g) Y% W2 w$ r$ U, o0 kOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world& g' h0 @" y( O' [/ f' K8 @
including Asia Pacific and Europe.3 W" l4 i+ X% ?3 \. Z
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian. M5 j9 m) D% k( M, h
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment1 l2 x9 m( t8 Q' }/ X9 Q' i2 |
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
8 g: P3 ^- [. P8 m' ube avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record* U* X5 j) d8 i- R: K6 y" n
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.") a G/ R* h1 @% ?7 d
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the" O# w1 d# W! }2 ?; V
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game/ c( H1 S# I" J: H
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey0 B5 W* p& a# e& v0 ?$ R. F# b
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US' }+ @0 ?- L3 z, d; C. c2 a
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be% l7 @' U' J3 k& t: E9 _: D
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
1 x# O" G9 y/ P* Z* l0 ` The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
/ e! X! g' [# s% o) `% g9 Y( l6 Yrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by: c( l! ]+ r. S$ e2 \2 y
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
X" a) W7 Q/ x) @development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country9 \9 L$ J; O G. n, i, B& i. R: z
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating" V) r U8 T/ `) y4 q( Z# d8 p
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The" q3 \) B% M7 y; a. ?- G
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
7 | N) D! N1 K5 R: ttake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
7 y* @/ r" }* I0 @, _" K. wsingle-family housing looks overpriced.# W( K$ o, ? }8 b3 \# l+ S
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with J ?/ _! I) Z4 p
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
% E4 h+ q4 ?- k7 N! Mmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push0 }+ n$ B- Q m& E3 a8 f
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
) D+ P$ S, }* e* Z7 X6 m: h" Bnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,+ x# j% p+ k6 w; O* o* w9 V5 ]
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
9 b& o) ]; M/ f" G+ c) Lapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary! O7 r& M+ w! M! k; H$ C
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
- Q5 R" f1 ]1 g4 lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into$ |. O6 ?5 s5 P* I/ ]* m6 t' m! u/ z$ w
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ }( U3 z5 N% \$ j, ~& e+ z. \3 r
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
. \: d1 \$ b# J& x2 u2 p5 z9 P* x' h0 h# t9 [+ I# Q' N( K
Canadian Markets to Watch2 k& m: b8 Y( a9 Q/ v
: g9 s$ T) U' M; g5 l+ } The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
" H6 s: D; E0 C' X4 ycities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
; p$ @8 q9 p7 O1 n8 C8 Yneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
! L0 W" H) ~1 t$ p$ binto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
" R- y8 U+ S5 E8 h7 b) e1 qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical4 h- Y9 L( D. |- w7 J, E
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out. v; D5 U! W, M1 m0 A
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 v) t+ a$ p- [$ Mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
, b; K8 p" ~0 _whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.% O2 f: ]( j& B1 Y0 Z( V8 h, o
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
$ d% \- ], e$ _" q2 {ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
% [3 w; A& U& f; M6 s5 S4 \
0 {2 x1 ?* t9 n4 p7 E$ S" j* O0 c Calgary/Edmonton
* V/ U) O- B( v5 q/ }/ Z+ U7 u/ A( T7 ~0 z* B
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one5 c0 s2 |3 M/ z4 i/ }5 ^
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a6 H' O, l& o. N8 q* ` P0 v. T8 |
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
$ O) T, B# u; w48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.& S5 {+ y/ I! R* B
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 n% D4 n2 c" ?$ `1 \8 Q! j3 W: ?; sHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
5 Y7 k# c$ m1 b6 P4 e& S- R4 n7 E6 ECalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays6 p$ F2 v- w, b' l8 L4 G+ n
strong, this market will continue to do well.
4 U5 `) N+ Q7 v. j3 I6 q* N3 n" w( k2 I8 `' a1 V0 c
Vancouver3 E B$ V% d. ?+ s8 q, b
4 H: ~. m1 c8 e! h: ` Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is! u. H3 B4 i( `4 z( X0 B
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous/ P1 h7 S9 v% ]% I0 z3 d; I
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
: n/ s$ ?5 w$ o3 p' G( s8 ~9 ~* pmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
! m% V7 Y* i! T& X s S! [growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
) S( D. P: z3 p- C( jrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%$ M' f3 e! @/ y0 R, d+ L
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
: m @! D. q3 `# t% B/ n, ]# v5 P8 n M' mfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 `) A' r) B7 R+ w+ Y
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.+ l* K' ~9 ~# i+ a: u2 n
* v3 c$ K" V) Y8 e6 y Toronto% h, Q! o" t/ T* L( v8 a8 O
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
2 h& U: \- O: Imanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is J( \2 K1 _' |% N8 ]8 c* _
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
3 u4 H0 q9 U$ B4 Tindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; p. F ?; C3 C9 ~4 OThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 G" N" _# G r) |
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 e+ k8 P# O% c5 V4 q* v% mApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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- j) u0 D8 o; Y9 t J0 Q Montreal
0 @( d* k) P# O/ v, p c5 c! |. J; |7 _% ]. M3 @. j8 _
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
7 C$ I$ p# g8 lgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 h8 i6 U/ k# F- l. }3 Lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
4 L0 a) J$ q+ {, j3 OCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
8 y, z" N/ h9 y! G3 q, dsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
' B) X. f' C8 ~. Thigher as a "hold" recommendation.9 s0 x, I0 X' U2 q2 }9 ~' v7 x E7 D
/ K" Q. G5 E4 u; ]
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
! A- `. V, }- K N9 h5 qinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
: k/ M( E( f' U* T3 Vmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos' ~7 r) q6 ~1 n1 ?
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest, k4 z0 A4 ] z( x% K D3 U
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
2 p8 U w p- t8 D' s mprices."6 e6 C1 Z6 h( V* A N8 v/ v
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
% e8 Q6 E3 u& G4 Z, A! dwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
. }5 u! q/ ^; h
, c+ P, `1 _7 {/ {' ^ About PricewaterhouseCoopers
- p0 U- @, H$ l& c# q
/ L9 w5 M5 i3 m7 a PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
7 M7 ~; N1 W& |6 K+ `4 Ytax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its" m) d. A( s) D" o% H! j% M& H+ u
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
" h# M. O& v0 ~" X! b, Hacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop c& Q: L# I8 }" C" M
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
. W+ n( q- ], n) |excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
4 b% b8 T; E* Y# irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the/ d* @2 W. _1 N% T7 |$ g& `
country.% r3 A5 x1 K2 `4 d
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
# B& J$ a4 l/ ilimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the6 V; ~+ {% @' Y2 h4 B; C) K
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
2 G5 q3 n. G$ r" B! x& yeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
" U3 `7 |2 c" w: P i1 L
6 Q d7 u+ f% f9 y About the Urban Land Institute) m2 o+ Z& A/ ~7 L3 k
! i% W- y+ @5 V: S- |: Y The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and0 a6 |* z2 h2 w" ^( {! G
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide1 Q+ C4 t! h- K* N) N8 \! i; \
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
' b2 D- `/ j9 F6 Z! K- h; w. |# Xthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
, Q6 S" S1 K# E1 Zthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 \' B' ~: ~. Q
disciplines.
2 {6 B, B# j$ e5 `' P) |6 Z The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.# {( b% Q# d% D3 D/ a8 q
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
: r7 R: k) J" m y/ P* xCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
f5 L' H% ?% I: inow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be- `" K6 M! U! }
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,1 v7 O4 G. I' {7 e+ m
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake* K9 S3 q1 G Z h. F
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
6 k [, [5 E6 xPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please6 \4 f8 c) K1 }# N# z, S- o/ q; `9 V
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on' t9 b0 n# m$ t/ j# z
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.1 c9 o7 I- M7 X7 i
' z. v7 h$ P, T7 Y4 U8 w- d" Q& x% F, w) i( N$ D& Q
" @0 ~ @6 f2 D7 Y7 l4 { H- B8 b
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,& {. q$ {$ D% |; K( y% B! i" X
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# U; D7 h/ K4 lhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html2 \# u# r$ B& V: V# {
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