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Attention Real Estate Reporters: + B! u5 t% n$ v2 z% z0 M
s3 E9 O" {3 g5 J HDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat # m2 w8 F, S- p2 {! i' u9 y
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US% A% }; d1 H6 \3 Z- N* C
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
' |. n% k! K/ zas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging1 v S9 A, c j+ F
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
5 p: `5 O i9 r" \, R* }/ Jand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
# `9 K8 h6 h9 ]/ E! S+ V( } Zupbeat.
, W- _/ T. g: F, E% g Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 v6 A2 F I% sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% v; B6 V# X8 y0 o! g/ q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
0 e% O+ r4 ]& ?! k( Hestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
- k" @' }8 c' x4 c, O3 K9 R- ^representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.: @/ R7 [4 v# ~- X
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world6 p1 W3 p* F7 H. \; h5 \
including Asia Pacific and Europe.; S0 E' w8 c' E0 m
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian, _- @. u8 }8 f9 ~; G4 [7 E i; L0 h
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment& m, [& l A+ q1 H
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 x! R. ?3 C* X0 i
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record: p8 T2 |( `7 ~! G1 P
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
2 f# v) @" P" K ~/ ] According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
+ `# @" O. P0 q! y/ C: `; Oborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game; a" J8 K6 ^) b, O3 w
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
: u0 M# q. {. P2 o; h) Vremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US' a9 u! U4 C/ r! O! s/ U
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be2 e/ M1 e$ y. o6 c" z
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
6 e6 K, M0 S5 t! [- w I) F The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian7 v- |! H$ F3 l" i& C, E
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by" f/ D( n' V# P/ Z. T9 F: R# L' e
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land; X4 L2 d' h# r. m7 o$ O
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country7 D, s- m7 {3 q# ?. u
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
1 I: ?; H3 Z- s( w( N2 V( i7 ddevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The# m! Z, I- e: V) O
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to4 j7 R7 l: q' u) I1 U1 T( g
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
8 s5 Q# t$ `) Z% o5 L( {7 Hsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
! W, x% F/ ~8 m$ ?2 W# P. A Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 q' q% \) a6 r; U+ r' Ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian( n8 O# s/ [2 M' B$ T8 V. _
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push! y. r8 A9 ~) w
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
2 q) U8 X* C @2 S- wnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,$ r. [8 k9 F L6 S2 D. I
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental1 Q' h9 ?4 l+ I% p( B; S% V9 W" q
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ ^+ E0 q6 o0 l( z7 owestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
! x! O/ h+ Z" z! u7 l+ zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into4 G3 H% [- I: w8 G1 k5 k( \& u; \
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
! ?0 u. M" l6 @, I0 _in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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- x% C$ {6 d. V4 q9 V: ] Canadian Markets to Watch
4 [" ]5 Z0 U4 p1 q4 W* P
$ w9 g% u& \- I5 s1 j The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central9 t' l, K4 P2 ]# Y- j4 I5 ~+ m; M
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
! M+ G9 F% J% ~6 F; T' d- Dneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back) y0 E5 B* Z$ Y2 V1 e0 ~( |) q$ s
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in. I" D" q% P: N1 e% J8 Z4 k& P/ A
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
N+ M) V& d9 e) x" o: Oprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) M$ s7 I+ D9 s. K9 t" q. b# x
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
* D. Z; `6 v' W4 ]/ T2 V- \% pprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain8 J, w+ n4 y: Q6 g. @$ c. c
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
$ i( r" `( ?. V* OToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
5 y, f$ H5 s% k; Z! R: Gratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) D5 P5 X% s+ x; k! Y
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Calgary/Edmonton+ }& b1 }8 a+ I4 f! a( l
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! i( ?+ U! n& A$ x0 oboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* i. m9 U) y: S- A) Fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution," _3 l" ]0 ?7 h: [2 ^
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property., I2 `8 K/ u" H/ ]+ V; e' L
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale, z1 b1 f7 B$ |/ g
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
, F( l9 i5 n* T5 M9 m( HCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
$ Q v) t; @( b5 s9 pstrong, this market will continue to do well.
& W0 H' D7 p; ^1 h7 A6 H
^: u% T% i% }+ c( V5 B Vancouver
$ a& K+ e5 T3 q H, y; p
8 t( {9 P. S; r5 o& U F Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is* ~( h+ Z3 q2 `; v) Q. v* I
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous0 J( W' c! D# O) I7 t& o9 W/ ^* ]. l
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
+ k# a* q3 i- _8 H& ?6 A- v, Kmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a1 J# a7 K e: K
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy; e9 Z. ^, c7 z( G1 {
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%+ E- r8 K/ d. L9 ]' d$ K; L
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
/ E$ _+ T% {! ]5 `" v3 Ufor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 n. X+ R: J' H5 |, u, kgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
$ Y" C) V9 x# w4 k$ ^% ]# R
' q3 g1 }/ T# D) ?& D2 k+ ~ Toronto
6 z3 R& x- J8 ]: w ^" t' K$ e! p, Q( [# ]- \9 s( L& r4 I
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and! l( d k& y+ [
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
7 z) r @: M; arelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
! F5 U, k! n3 h! b2 ?( p) Dindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
& h( i( B7 E- J8 F, YThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
* T1 A, l0 d: D2 x$ q7 ffeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and8 N, m; C* v$ J) [* J. r7 g; P
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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9 ^1 b6 X& L; F Montreal$ J7 n3 T) [) C/ F i
: C9 U5 w. l3 S
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall5 W t% A) q$ h X! S R
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up- d: g/ t3 [9 P; }' L
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
/ Y8 K) V) ]8 Z: g J" M" L5 i/ h0 ]Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
0 \! D ?# W& m, a* ssectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
0 p9 @1 X; y! U* zhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
6 T& {9 B2 X8 K; j4 m: \* ^9 A/ t' f- j
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years/ r! t7 y. @1 R1 \, f/ b) R
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
4 y! q1 Z6 [$ A! e& n0 L) gmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
' Q' \7 Q7 Q( ~2 d* bnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
/ K( v& p L3 ^% h% Ooverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
) h/ Y& }; V# _0 aprices."$ [$ P; |; J! f7 _
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& B4 _$ s+ e( W5 p8 E
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
5 r% k2 l2 t2 x# ]3 N+ c! P- ]2 j) I* @0 O! l9 x9 E" K/ h4 O
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
- r( s8 J& \8 p" Z# H8 ~, k. j
3 k3 `! z8 F& b, R2 l+ A8 D$ l- P+ c PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,( c W4 A' y; P+ o2 t. G
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, m/ P# L# `. J& mclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) ~+ {! H Q; h+ e. R; sacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
/ k( C8 Y8 j4 W" ufresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
# i1 J" [! s" z- x. vexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 V1 X' N$ j5 u+ t, ]! z
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
+ M/ O5 `1 l6 g: D! rcountry.& j. j. {7 i8 Z
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario% m+ p g: ?0 n+ m6 R7 R
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the8 Z- o: l; I* J& u. G* M
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 A) U: M1 L% o+ Q( Zeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' [! T0 e* I: Y# V1 H% }
) u% c( F+ y) V" f
About the Urban Land Institute
- E, }2 Z9 k! d0 B" O1 J: F, ?
1 _# G5 }+ |8 d" f+ t/ r The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
7 T. r/ ]; \- v( Z7 F* |$ V! Fresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide6 k: V; d. v9 `
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating( R7 @3 a; N2 D$ U; l
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
4 V- G. a9 o8 ~4 F9 Pthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
5 v6 f, f( Y% V& E& qdisciplines.
4 e, [9 t1 z9 B3 c The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.$ p/ G5 G% }7 c1 ^- b$ _' r* `
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
* T4 H1 L t9 E/ `, CCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 Z5 J7 m/ R: X, f9 _- G. K
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 s* y+ m9 d: I7 n: I. d5 T, _hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
" V1 H" J+ @+ H/ b$ h4 U, C" A1 T2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake. s3 N0 j3 z: ]2 N
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ r, j3 F7 U5 e. z
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 m5 c! V" [# Z( c+ o
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
, t. h2 x# b: x' x ?1 Bthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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3 l# _" ~2 U0 q3 P" E$ e$ K( x
3 L, H( ]& v+ D# \7 y- B8 p$ w! h" P/ Y- |. \9 d7 F: h
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,0 p" @* t$ D% ~4 n
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com0 p& H( t( S7 K0 F* A% R
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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7 S' Z3 }9 h+ T1 b[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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