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Oilsands an emerging global growth star
$ v* y" d, U0 ?/ j+ }7 kExxonMobil forecast predicts output of four million barrels a day by 2030
$ r5 m1 @9 A. q& gGordon Jaremko, The Edmonton Journal
) |$ x2 t+ \0 LPublished: 2:37 am
EDMONTON - As oil leaps towards a new landmark high of $100 US a barrel, the world's top investor-owned producer has singled out Alberta as an emerging global star of production growth.

0 p# {8 J2 e5 i3 {% I" G: POilsands output will multiply fourfold to more than four million barrels daily by 2030, ExxonMobil Corp. predicts in a new international industry outlook report. And that forecast errs on the conservative side by projecting "fundamentals" of demand and supply trends instead of relying on prices to stay sky-high, ExxonMobil spokesman Allan Jeffers said Tuesday.

5 ^, b$ J/ r" I* A" @% AOil jumped to $96.67 a barrel, up $2.69 in New York trading Tuesday on fears of global supply disruptions after storms battered North Sea production platforms and guerrillas attacked a pipeline in Yemen.
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7 p/ }/ S8 Q' t2 Z+ x6 y: P5 `6 w View Larger Image
Gasoline prices in Edmonton were 99.9 cents per litre at many stations on Tuesday.
+ R5 N( V" j2 P5 ~" d) A; _Larry Wong, The Journal

Edmonton refinery postings for Alberta output Tuesday ranged from $60.74 for low-grade heavy crude to $91.11 for premium oilsands synthetic production. The Canadian benchmarks are translations of international prices, adjusted for pipeline tolls and currency exchange rates.
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) E* Z& A. y) k5 }' wExxonMobil's high oilsands expectations are realistic and reasonable, said Bob Dunbar, an Alberta industry veteran whose Strategy West Inc. specializes in the field.

$ F+ H1 N! ^: Y# B' s: iOutput from the northern bitumen belt would grow to six million barrels a day if all known projects were built on their announced schedules, Dunbar said.

+ Q& u0 _- g6 V. ]6 r. O/ ]5 |4 d, _While no one believes the current spike will last, the looming new record high is seen as confirming that a new era of premium prices has arrived to stay, he said.

When the oilsands rush began in the late 1990s developers only relied on markets to stay in a range of $20 to $30 a barrel. To be profitable, new projects today count on sustained averages in a higher band of $60 to $70, Dunbar estimated.

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