reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty over done

QWE321

Look for buying opportunity in Suncor and Canadian Natural, Citigroup says
The negative after-market reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty changes for the energy sector appears overdone and may present an opportunity to buy some names in the sector, says Citigroup analyst Doug Leggate.
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He recommends keeping an eye on preferred names in the sector like Suncor Energy Inc. (SU/TSX) and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ/TSX), but admits there will likely be a strong response to any change from the industry.
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2 N( j2 H, {; W( L6 b* u9 j% B! {* GThis view is partly a result of oil prices. Citigroup has a long-term oil price assumption of US$60 per barrel, which means the changes are not considered material enough to warrant any alterations to its earnings or target prices.
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At first glance, the proposed regime looks significantly less onerous than feared, Mr. Leggate said in a research note, adding that with US$55 oil, there would be no changes to his assumptions.
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There would be an impact with prices at US$100 and the royalty rate increases on a sliding scale with a cap at US$120 for WTI crude, he said, adding that the sector is discounting prices below US$60.

+ n" g1 F& P4 O' X! F“...Versus the level of oil prices we estimate are currently being discounted in the major Canadian oil sands players, the impact on valuations looks benign,” Mr. Leggate wrote.

% ~: j% T* \  ?0 O0 |$ {5 I, |/ WSo while he acknowledged that the new regime gives away some upside, the analyst thinks plenty of core value remains with investors.