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Look for buying opportunity in Suncor and Canadian Natural, Citigroup says
( @: u9 Y2 t4 G" ~" D1 ~# D8 _8 Z6 ]4 pThe negative after-market reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty changes for the energy sector appears overdone and may present an opportunity to buy some names in the sector, says Citigroup analyst Doug Leggate.
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: ]# @. b( B: H$ @ _4 m, x0 XHe recommends keeping an eye on preferred names in the sector like Suncor Energy Inc. (SU/TSX) and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ/TSX), but admits there will likely be a strong response to any change from the industry.
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{4 i, s; v8 l0 nThis view is partly a result of oil prices. Citigroup has a long-term oil price assumption of US$60 per barrel, which means the changes are not considered material enough to warrant any alterations to its earnings or target prices.
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At first glance, the proposed regime looks significantly less onerous than feared, Mr. Leggate said in a research note, adding that with US$55 oil, there would be no changes to his assumptions.
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, s6 G# h" e" sThere would be an impact with prices at US$100 and the royalty rate increases on a sliding scale with a cap at US$120 for WTI crude, he said, adding that the sector is discounting prices below US$60. 2 `9 u3 K# _1 u& V. O+ j
( ]- r' y: Q4 w7 d2 C“...Versus the level of oil prices we estimate are currently being discounted in the major Canadian oil sands players, the impact on valuations looks benign,” Mr. Leggate wrote.1 w Q- J/ X+ ]( @
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So while he acknowledged that the new regime gives away some upside, the analyst thinks plenty of core value remains with investors. |
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