Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ s- u5 B. I2 y+ LIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
: q- {3 t* U3 W: N& B% p% RNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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$ E! n+ U, |+ c6 rDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

1 E6 }; r, q" c9 @0 vOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
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, x! v1 N# \9 ~$ `: h# r8 sAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

. {& ]! {/ x( C0 Z" [$ z+ A% v0 hJul 2007
NA
0 Z/ L, ?( f, I9 t 2328
6 J4 w* w. I* S' g* b& b 717
442,752
% e9 v: Z& p" T# @  ^ 410,000
320
28
# B7 v3 _' F3 a& Y 31%

" O6 H4 p6 }2 e+ O# [Jun 2007
6 f& k) q/ p. b4 J; V NA
, |; z/ [& A7 b" y 2661
1011
4 @# s+ z8 ?5 r$ n 442,817
1 [0 @1 c7 ^. O0 a/ t3 \" q 409,000
328
% d4 K8 Z2 u& I: g6 E; d  x2 P# @ 22
38%
5 z( `, Z9 [: G2 G* `5 ]& Y
May 2007
NA
1 z. O4 i8 \4 n 2288
1261
, T$ U1 r& G, m! M6 u1 t& u) h8 G 451,216
/ f2 m* w! h2 r6 ^8 q  E& h5 F 415,000
322
- j2 }- ]; R" x+ S1 y6 U" F 19
0 I/ s) S, Z4 s' n+ r7 ]$ y3 F9 u 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! V2 X/ w5 _: k8 n鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
4 E3 I9 f) o/ J- P. h( {7 q存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

& m, U: b8 l" c" R
$ w+ j) W; s) t5 x2 j) I, j1 s' F6 k用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
0 @/ o5 }* }6 m5 G( M2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' T& D7 [, M0 M" j鉴定完毕！

; d: s1 p8 c4 a$ p呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

! q- i! G, \, T" f- @8 T/ G这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

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4 L. S6 r( K6 y/ S+ U5 Z/ Q

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

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QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
, D$ i. A( H) j! qIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 L7 w. [3 q7 Z2 ^How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
7 I) U% b) {' C6 U* tThat is what i say half full or half empty.
2 z2 K3 U, t. u3 x  Egood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
4 S- ?6 n1 J+ xIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
0 j6 O: V" m3 e+ p8 v8 SIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 X2 P+ ?7 V# tHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

0 C4 q- }& ]4 \; x4 S" \I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
3 c7 g2 _5 h2 c$ [; eMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, x1 K, A9 z9 F! SNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

& z* t& A* B2 b& i9 `+ r- XQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


0 O) C# {/ c/ y+ DI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

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WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
, S! n, a$ ]( V+ c1 W* K3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

2 _) \% Y+ z7 J2 H; L2 I
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

  M0 h0 T9 r  @3 u# ^) L" z

7 A! F, P, I6 Y" j只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
) ~' C$ o+ {: J! R9 p1 \看来，观察days inventory 更重要。