Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 x3 }5 d# V# A' DMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
# e+ H  c2 T/ q& R+ CNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

" |' ?, [, ~; j' s9 kOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
( T* R, O8 a% Y9 I, r0 ]) e6 a
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
* `7 U' S1 ]* D) ?: y
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

/ |% w8 x: d* J9 O, L) T  S; HJul 2007
NA
2328
& W" L, k* j/ H% D 717
442,752
410,000
9 V7 z* O- H- A. C 320
- _1 ~3 @: `5 C% j% E2 }2 W 28
& g* @7 o9 u. W+ G& O6 I 31%

! U$ D% u( I+ [1 lJun 2007
: E/ [! l; P1 R1 ?+ B# [2 A6 `! B8 l NA
! `. p$ A; l, @& c6 T' } 2661
& j' T0 ]! s! P 1011
7 Y4 g- x8 x4 B7 F 442,817
2 Z8 U5 ?8 S* _. _& m% m! ^- N+ [ 409,000
328
22
38%
( o0 M+ I4 D; a, ]/ B" ^. R
- j( l/ q: q5 S# S8 n0 p7 u4 FMay 2007
/ t, B9 h! L9 R& ]  d NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
. ?- c5 P3 ]& [; ] 322
19
$ J4 \0 k4 v! I. o! w 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 J% O- i: w2 @1 Z鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ R0 T% I, I, I" H+ v存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
. E1 P. ?' c( e, q& `' w0 V鉴定完毕！

" _* `9 r+ C" D- b* X  H
$ ^9 ?+ A+ s: G7 d3 Y3 f用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
0 a7 g8 O( G: _8 u* `2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 [: R: X- I* H3 ^5 E3 w鉴定完毕！

: h' U8 ], @$ N: H4 g
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
; U5 V# T3 H, O4 S2 j2 q5 l
  F" ^: }# m+ C& b新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

9 C9 _. m+ `6 i* l$ J& R就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
' @7 ^. d/ m- P5 U. G, k- K8 L! E( z: U
3 X1 g4 J: `9 w: X% @) I, |这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
  o) }% M  H8 \  s% f& fEdmonton Single Family Home
2 p5 }* ^7 Q2 G2 i) ~. TMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
7 i' w+ |6 H2 }
) B9 O6 ?* a5 [( j
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
* o  i/ Q/ S0 i1 A  Y& o- Z. V4 ~% v: F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
& t3 U/ |) B& c2 s


; l2 X  U8 j1 P8 T! N: D% E只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。