Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
" h8 ~# {5 a- q& M8 @0 @$ D, kNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
. V( A" \/ I7 q" v2 Z' u8 N
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
4 y6 @5 \! W5 q4 G' D1 @. }
/ A" p' c5 K" M# G" \Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

1 p, l) D7 W8 ^, H4 @4 V% q  k2 QSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
! B9 ~/ x  |) p1 v
- R4 p) {) `+ H& AAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
, K2 @( \# Q6 t3 V; v- M( h 717
8 J: r8 _  @# y+ w  a 442,752
410,000
& p1 [1 @" }" a$ q: N 320
28
# `+ i9 i. G5 E! p% B! d6 t 31%
& M- L7 i. I' |# T! L
Jun 2007
6 ~9 c& q. m! u/ F" W7 L4 `8 n  u NA
2661
" i' i1 H, ?; D1 c. X) C  W! f 1011
5 `+ O, t1 Y( ?/ K 442,817
409,000
: p2 E8 t0 T0 R3 u) X9 m- H 328
0 \1 ^2 i6 H% j: a: v) k& ] 22
$ m  L0 m  T8 t  }6 k; R. s0 |  Q 38%

) H4 v# H8 m) W7 y1 g& m3 ^May 2007
NA
% a+ v0 b1 K) l5 D0 i8 s: w9 L 2288
1261
451,216
  Y3 m$ x( C8 C: H7 {, \, ^ 415,000
* R! l$ F  Z9 j# r7 z3 F 322
4 Z$ U; A& X/ f& [  v 19
- f2 F1 }- {& m 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
. j1 m, ], L5 [# ^, V& W0 z/ A" ]; J3 S鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 H' V5 \$ R1 _: l! I3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

! g% U+ X+ ?, o9 L呵呵，太不专业了吧。
( n0 [: h( o- [$ \4 f* R/ H! H
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
0 J2 s. M2 e6 v
# G) [7 X  c+ U5 X就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
7 r; ^. F- t0 A) C' P
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

1 O' ?# ?: \& x
: z0 Q  U& c$ B

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
# o' ?% i2 s* Z; U& [Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" t' Z" X( L  N, I& r1 v7 ~/ x! r+ NIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
3 S% n: T, c. w2 gIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
) y# ?8 O9 U2 XHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

; Z6 F% K2 S! |5 @# D- W5 q
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 J' D4 R6 M2 U9 _Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
0 e6 u. U% [/ m2 R8 [Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

& a9 |; D/ l0 V/ f
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
$ i' d( z+ R# v" K; q2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
, z# ?8 ]. z/ [' ^2 W: I8 a! D8 |) ]看来，观察days inventory 更重要。