Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321 · 发表于 2007-10-16 15:13

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date Inventory New Listings Added Sales 30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
442,817
409,000
328
22
38%

May 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光 · 发表于 2007-10-16 21:03

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST · 发表于 2007-10-16 21:25

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151 · 发表于 2007-10-16 22:45

景之白干 · 发表于 2007-10-17 00:22

原帖由紫光于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% Z4 i& H j6 a R2 a存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%- X4 J2 _$ K1 v1 d5 e% D( V/ p
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z · 发表于 2007-10-17 06:36

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z · 发表于 2007-10-17 06:42

原帖由紫光于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ u: J1 C, h- I: @( ]* s存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%0 u; G0 T1 q+ _/ `) W3 w
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说，存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321 · 发表于 2007-10-17 07:21

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh · 发表于 2007-10-17 08:01

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表 8 v. P' K+ D+ @
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光 · 发表于 2007-10-17 08:04

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表 ) s' ?! Z. v8 g' Y9 {. V
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321 · 发表于 2007-10-17 09:09

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工 · 发表于 2007-10-17 09:23

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
, }$ ]+ T7 v2 D9 o& ?+ A3 KIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
' ^3 Z/ H( | MIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
, q4 B3 I5 x& Y- U& p& KHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST · 发表于 2007-10-17 12:10

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表 3 U5 X- G2 k# z6 V% W0 {9 S
Edmonton Single Family Home ) ?# Z0 @9 A: {' t% ] T0 W
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) e" a7 j% O3 f0 {2 @/ G: f0 _$ JIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
9 j/ @% B% s' [( V6 S- |Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321 · 发表于 2007-10-17 12:32

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲 · 发表于 2007-10-17 12:34

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表 7 x6 D6 C: Z; x: @0 J6 L! l" F
$ G4 R8 ~) M5 f

5 h, O R+ j6 d5 e- q" h0 C2 |I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST · 发表于 2007-10-17 15:46

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
/ y1 K3 k/ V5 }+ S; u1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。( _ f, @6 c- K5 B% F+ W
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
- I& _; e7 Z% g6 ]3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST · 发表于 2007-10-17 16:09

上图为days inventory 和总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。

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Single Family info update Oct 1-10

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