Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
" `3 k9 M0 Q2 _- \MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- d3 U+ j3 |& B& s5 }5 jNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
* s9 q4 M+ E: t
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

3 e6 z! b; b! JSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
! d' H; w: M  _, |0 o+ H
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
5 d+ v& y( d  W) N* P( ^: | NA
2328
$ }, }0 u2 z6 d1 r4 V: w 717
442,752
410,000
4 ?; T$ ?' ^) j4 e" k6 X! { 320
% G! f' g* m+ s' `$ n2 n) K 28
31%

* y' W' z. l, g5 a& PJun 2007
NA
2661
1011
3 \1 [% ]9 G/ b# H* j 442,817
( A% H% D# K" W. v8 B; V 409,000
328
# B: [+ ]6 a4 L: W 22
+ X' q% y4 h6 N( p 38%

May 2007
NA
2288
+ _4 B0 C$ ^, w/ O5 |; x 1261
451,216
7 X% ~- j, X9 ^+ H 415,000
: D& w6 O& Q/ M 322
1 Q1 w$ i) M( x+ E# H$ X' r 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
8 p# [+ Q4 i8 `7 {存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 _/ A6 k+ A9 z; s鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
) R* m7 A1 ~2 Z9 d8 d$ b4 D2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

  S3 @+ F3 z. }; u4 F
9 ^4 W8 A% q) d  z呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
  B% ?. A9 b( C  B5 C8 o
( Y& i; E9 x+ e1 R) S就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
8 S3 N/ [+ I* p$ a- [" g
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ p% q/ j  t" v: |4 k4 O2 m' pDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% f+ @' L2 N* [* `3 g- m$ A; C2 f

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
% w9 y6 V: F% d2 qDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. S+ m  u* ^3 l7 J# [* H

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; E2 f" ^0 i! z, \How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
2 W9 D2 b* K2 m- a! F) T2 cgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
) Q2 E2 A* b) w0 t5 n5 m  ?+ tIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
2 t( d0 l* z- I/ o0 E  z8 L8 v( B1 ?Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

2 ]9 Z# V* }8 i* t( u3 L+ R( w6 TI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
5 s8 M6 V6 @2 Y# k, r" @Edmonton Single Family Home
# @" ^0 D( y+ Q# kMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ H$ U' V  D6 S% TIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

* R" Z% o& x8 W8 i+ P  ^
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
6 Y* }: v- ^: B0 E0 P' O( B1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
8 Z% W4 s! @3 X" s9 G2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
7 T( o' H9 T& {! f7 E4 d3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: v! X# I% S  A2 m) `
1 s. ~6 a. C$ z; f2 |下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
0 E1 ~3 S0 P1 F2 E

( _7 Z! }9 Y3 p5 Z$ T) n
/ g4 J8 I: Q8 _5 W% d( f只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。