Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
5 Z, k. I) l0 \5 S. T: JIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
) `6 Q4 ]; j! H" J/ d4 w5 _7 `TD can give you 4.2%.
2 j* X# Y* ^+ L! p- h; {7 P$ nBMO can give you 4.3%.
4 v- \2 y3 G6 `  z5 G+ lRBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
' t2 i# g& `! B7 t' I" @0 pIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
& l. p9 v# P! l/ ^$ uAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
' E9 @+ F, |3 _* p6 aAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
5 Q% C# M3 J( [$ @- M# }From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
: b" x, A, x" Y5 ~1 c  CBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
/ [) d+ a8 g# x4 sIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
$ i* a/ I7 d$ R& t' OIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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$ B4 U! R9 I7 p  s' U; tAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
, u7 ^0 m- E0 q5 X/ J' Z' `

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
0 [( C" B( z6 l; t! J4 ^$ ?. M8 NWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
( O4 X  m: F  \3 B0 WIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

% D8 {7 U9 W# s

9 L3 H8 e- q# l6 J1 i6 d9 Z8 u这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
% y7 V8 b9 K  l" L# m4 E* O4 iBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

) M' O; e+ J3 e! s  [; Y% s呵呵，多打了个0。
! p; M" Y! y7 h8 c& ]1 N. \1 n' u
. q7 y7 s( e0 X9 E; u多谢。

6 I. x' n9 F4 r/ {5 a8 W- S把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
3 K( N8 Q: j2 Z) x' ^+ w( F我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
1 `$ P$ s5 W  J5 K& U4 z如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
" W) S0 w/ U: f$ |/ K. ?& a而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

1 K- `0 |) v6 }. h! o! |但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
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# F+ g1 M( s% b, ~& b" D, x现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
0 C6 z& `! a: |# i$ M8 L还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
" G4 Z1 a' E- t4 B如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
  }' b& ^/ C7 j) C0 h如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

. i- u" I  h; C  }5 m4 s[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]