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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 & `0 y4 j/ q6 R+ k4 x2 x% p
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有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。/ i) h" ] N' X: Z, T" ^/ V
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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( v6 k) t4 ]1 Q& w4 ]% `! H$ Qin Oil & Companies News 29/03/20175 V; |* x8 l- x( `4 H
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.& x. i+ h6 i2 R4 B" o: X
% z2 M. \; x& G0 a- \Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50., a7 y+ j8 s1 {1 a
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.& L0 x; x \# b/ w; D* o
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”7 v, a* z, y% b6 E4 ` H" I
4 s7 Z. ~1 g& B7 \Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”. e3 [" |5 E+ ^( a% l r- _
# l9 f1 p, |" N8 L8 ]3 XThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel./ w! g1 V5 X5 {9 r# l6 j0 M7 ]3 p: T
# @3 ~: k6 ?, t3 c/ y" wYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.5 ^! x0 P9 ~, \, g7 c
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.” L3 g! k' @. n, x7 l, D
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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% d+ W- d0 d7 Q# ALooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking 2 T. h% j$ x- u7 c5 T
Around.”
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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Source: CNBC
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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![3[2].png](data/attachment/forum/201704/01/161128c2yxjn80kj4krtpw.png "3[2].png")
发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
