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" b2 K# D: N. Z+ u0 P Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com5 m& {: Z& k) q- o' P6 {
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: j1 G( `6 b+ q, d In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007/ R0 _4 H) _ U% x
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 p, D+ \! g0 j+ @2 F
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN4 n; |+ {$ U) M( v, a, P
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. - J, Q4 B) Z3 j4 V8 u
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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6 |( t5 i$ a! R2 X0 N# {But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. % q( S8 p! ^# |4 _- e2 {( Q
. F% u t% O# M @1 \" c' vDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. . Y+ K8 S) n7 s& m" w! N* B D j
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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% W3 g3 m) I5 Q2 E& }. O- J4 dShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 2 K! g; Y- N+ F `, J6 y- F
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. . H, U; `9 }& n! J
0 j: M" }: \( l" ~; |9 tCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. # Y% ~. e. p* _# R6 {& b
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! g0 C+ D5 U2 X$ R, w! H7 ^. l7 b9 a
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 1 j6 W+ u2 j) S7 E
5 _6 X0 f; u( P"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. * T3 R1 t( o1 f8 F% a# W/ I
& ]! h, c+ @& c4 a"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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# d8 d# y" M, |8 C7 L8 }5 M( THe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." $ i9 }# _$ H5 A6 O/ |
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ' w& [2 N6 m+ o) m$ Z! z) W
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 4 m/ A) _# @. S# K9 Y" O% R5 x
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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: W/ C$ G' |- L4 \: P' \+ C"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. % h# N+ M! ^. A) B& G
- A; y. s: @. @) ^6 wPrevious story: Bottom Line
- z; U; R- f& t. Z* \/ \7 ]7 bNext story: Building permits hit record f+ m5 Q# g5 r' X& B8 i
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