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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 20079 c0 S' k- v5 p* R: s8 k8 }( ^
+ H- G: w; X) _8 t# lPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007! U& Q4 t0 l5 \% ^$ m# s; X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. " F, |2 E' m" T% b8 B2 I
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' g: o& m# y: L* K! l1 ~
4 K4 y) _4 W& w9 k3 ]' }* pBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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! ~& V3 B# M5 D9 nDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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& o$ s4 U( ^/ ^& ]"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." / n% i6 o! W" r8 E& _
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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4 n3 \. `$ M) w, G8 t2 z"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 0 A2 l8 \. |1 W& X
$ n \0 M. b) X2 a2 ICanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. + }+ t2 _ ]& j2 z; t1 ~
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 4 Q. u0 \- U7 }8 O( n3 l( O3 ~
* B% j7 }# v: S6 x"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 6 ^4 z/ o: Q$ P) j
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 3 f/ X2 g! Q+ D6 v0 y0 {
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ! o$ i2 w0 i2 f% Z" @
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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" t5 Q% [; Q. g1 W! Z7 v4 P- T0 D, h8 NOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. * i2 V; O( _( E* n% K7 P
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 8 g" P. }' n( _1 u
+ m0 ]3 `, T, O; Q- }% K"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. * q4 }9 H! g' v* X, R% o3 d
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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% S3 ]/ x* j8 s1 c4 z" FYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ! Y( @! H4 d. p O
4 l I0 U I2 l3 O2 P$ c. \. J"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 1 p& ^0 _& _- M$ V6 T
+ \& G6 h* U( }: u. t; Y9 KLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
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