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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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5 G, N, U+ c' b& ~6 ]8 b6 K7 |- ? In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.& a2 P4 P2 x: [+ l3 E6 B: w3 ~8 {: C
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20073 |4 E' p% t# j! N
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN+ u s! r, \- R' H5 b: m
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/ u* H/ n! q* ?& x; bThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 Z0 [: |. @; [/ Z* B% x
3 J; Q) ?% ^; h7 X# x2 BMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 3 A2 F9 l3 m1 K* q8 ^0 U* k( ]
" j; s+ w O% a- s% `4 {/ k, V* }1 GBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. + `1 g. m8 N8 H% C
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' . g- ]6 k$ {1 E, y0 y$ a
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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1 l) Y8 f' { L8 X/ h4 wShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. % g+ ~) q! @6 x+ K
/ I9 W7 @6 E; |"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 7 f5 \0 ~; x8 T4 _# b7 E" ?
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 9 [* Z! K9 L" b
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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3 Q+ p7 I6 }" e* d& ]( j"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. # U, J J3 E+ S) H. w' d
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 6 d2 n u# r) t6 Y! I7 e8 D$ M
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 6 e$ @/ r* r- a) i/ z4 a
' q( n/ S: `9 qOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. , T! S0 z* f$ X9 F
9 a; M4 W. K9 k"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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$ `% @2 ~( c8 y, bSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 A, p& e/ S5 J* S6 n) H, K- }
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 1 E: Y* f$ K0 U; A" x l
% g# K$ |' H0 G+ q" l"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. . P- N3 M8 x1 a) I; `5 ~
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Let the good times roll. 3 v7 _ @& M- Y
5 Z6 | q3 _& hPrevious story: Bottom Line5 C, F S T) _8 t; b7 u& u. W5 D2 U
Next story: Building permits hit record) w1 b; d% B! e2 x9 Y0 K' E/ n1 e
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