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3 R8 X( g' L8 D" n! d0 B In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.1 x7 D3 y2 u q% r
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Thu, January 11, 2007' B* C3 G- N; u
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
' J6 H4 ]# w7 Q5 Y( nBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ( l* m8 R; b5 f0 a5 I
1 x# n5 ]3 A9 R0 T( HMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. - A+ ?! g* C0 h/ T3 K
* m- X0 Q$ ]; W* U# kBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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2 E0 J* Z/ k* e3 ~# f/ V4 [Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. , b+ V' c/ ~' S8 c& @
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 X, R1 R4 @% k6 p# H
2 R2 d2 h" | Q& g$ K5 xShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. $ `. `3 O0 `. ?/ F$ R7 q
7 }* O% Y F0 z! P"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 2 D% O4 F1 n+ S- f
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % ]* ~* H2 u1 ? C5 C
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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g7 A' X& ?3 J g& N3 E( ^ i, ?Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ) T. N- v* \# ~$ h
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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% x) j& D C* T"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 8 {7 S+ z6 W5 E! [
' f0 z; v0 c+ }"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. % o" ~9 X, C( w5 ]. K' v+ d: E7 z
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." c, _# J1 s( X
9 e- Q% W/ o3 D" {Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. # A$ G* Y; U, I8 ?, ?
+ _7 g. {" A8 N; U4 b6 nOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 }$ Q: R. ] j' j
" a# F6 u4 q1 e8 h: aSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
