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/ d ~# e6 K, r* x8 C' pThu, January 11, 20072 S; Z4 I& z: j. C. x' B
: a% E5 O% }/ IPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
' X4 @8 c1 a+ _By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN7 d5 \- m' l' C7 t5 m
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0 C) K+ F; Z0 N" x2 dThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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! ?# D; v, _# R* ~Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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( O4 A5 h7 k" |Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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2 l/ |5 W: V4 P s"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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; h( M- c, b2 u P"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 t7 O2 ]0 b {. l0 D8 X! m0 ^2 ]
. s& T) q, D4 w) c6 U"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." # g7 ]/ ~5 A8 T4 s
9 E, V( b" h* G' o! |& oStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ' d4 \. H h5 p6 {8 w. r7 w% `
$ O8 r s. \* E v- \+ k- p" F"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 0 ]- J3 [- Y9 v3 w) T- E w
3 J# B0 r% o. ]8 P: x"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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3 H8 ~7 E# W9 b5 y8 lNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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; x- g* v& q) BExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 7 w1 v7 K; m- m2 F* B9 ^& M8 W
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ' H! j. l+ l+ |
3 H' F' \- ]1 _% Q"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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2 L" @. [4 Z6 o5 n) x6 sYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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M5 W7 J& B+ _& P9 l3 m" L; g' vLet the good times roll. * I( }/ U5 `5 U# j2 s
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