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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com# Z' Y' v/ i# m) p8 e
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20074 e. H; A4 C2 b! X2 o) r
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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3 ^* H. }+ u0 Q7 L1 ]. }% VThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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+ ` f+ f- j/ W" R1 m% c. |Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 7 F# k# I3 z/ Q' Q1 x" j6 ~9 ?; T
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." D b% Z& H2 ?6 l
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ' m! m" Z* g8 M5 e& B* W/ e; L
+ a/ p, M2 G5 J- O% }: p/ P+ W5 B"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." . z" R7 z# V* a( c7 J
+ ?) Q7 E' ^ U) eStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. & S, G4 |3 i( H* @1 \2 a" F* \$ H1 W8 H
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ' E; y9 }; ~. N4 e5 p
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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+ K' X y! \1 BHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." : N4 I3 d0 v2 e8 s$ C1 w1 `
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. / g+ B. M2 R3 ?1 V& ?4 f
- F" Q, t( R3 lHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. : B% o9 E9 U, n* L) Z3 z
8 v& D! N6 O% ^3 G! s* t8 Y8 R I"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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& O. C2 _$ R$ bSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. & d% G1 g9 X p1 G
6 ^) e! l( R$ \8 v9 HYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. + c7 @$ I9 l( ?1 x9 Q$ k8 @' Y. ~
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. / b; `) k& t; C' Q5 O. k
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Let the good times roll. 5 ^0 q) z) Y0 A/ z% T
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