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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.# S4 U5 f" P) a/ |; a
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Thu, January 11, 20071 S; b, p2 I! E
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 }+ t5 W5 D4 d
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN+ z- o) S$ i% k+ l, ^% W
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. - ^4 b' x6 q8 v
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ; b1 {( R5 @) _2 d
! `; O; C* |) G* ?# IDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. " [/ Q) ` j7 r% A
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" h* l4 g5 G! |3 |: D4 l"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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" T2 z( ]' q6 Y: C: x& j5 K1 c: VShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. $ z& U* y8 ~7 }* ~2 u$ q! h! b3 L
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 4 P* P6 a- `# C6 q) I% M
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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$ ?8 [" L% X, }Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ) Y7 U+ x$ D6 @6 d9 k+ u' f [
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. , w8 c4 S$ M, m( k3 E
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. + T8 S; \. f! T( Q
4 k$ p3 V. _; L3 A% h, U"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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d5 [* j1 I- ZHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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8 k% t7 Z) u3 GExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 9 j. V6 x. h. C4 w* a2 r
6 i* T8 s& z7 @7 ^8 g) pOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ; H8 @4 E* o' _7 a: x) H
: @4 f) e3 E# _2 U"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 {( e0 J. z7 P5 k5 D
1 H3 R, i( q D" O# i) w: tSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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8 l [9 t5 P6 L' F, n: z7 h* SYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 0 {9 \2 n7 R8 ^2 f* ?; t* ?" @* a
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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