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2 @% ~5 H1 S$ g" YThu, January 11, 2007( Q! {/ ?) d2 D% s+ j" a
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20079 x% V3 `, c6 q, u
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. / y/ j9 L% L2 R5 I+ i, B
( w8 |# T3 `; ?3 F- q5 ]Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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! Y+ p' Y* S7 X6 ?But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ t7 s4 k! N9 C* @/ |
0 o0 N* K8 x( [6 X9 P) H1 iDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ! @' p' [: _5 l" F5 n! r# |+ ^
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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5 y/ Q) X8 P% k, I+ p3 R$ SShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." - `# K! G. N2 u) {
+ B6 G$ V3 y' Z) a( iStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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: ?0 }4 M$ G" p- i% b8 ? f) O"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. V3 C. w7 e6 q4 e6 G9 u( `
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 4 Z4 i3 |7 ^. w, z. n6 P
! [9 |( r0 N, W! {1 _' t$ \Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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3 _5 ], l" K2 v8 i- w9 eOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. - p1 N# Z1 i+ d/ s6 f4 S
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 8 M2 A1 q* X' o
$ r0 I! s x% A( ~ T/ \1 i0 H( d$ s"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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. K) B. E5 o8 o) v USo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 9 Q' |, ?8 z0 S& F, g% I
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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2 n$ w8 D8 t" A2 @# q' ZLet the good times roll.
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* j9 U( F6 H1 d" bPrevious story: Bottom Line' ]/ e: d! ? I. J1 |8 C2 _$ b" x
Next story: Building permits hit record
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