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Thu, January 11, 2007
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# l9 _3 t' j$ e6 z( G( U KPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
, V& H% |9 I$ s0 q9 _+ hBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN5 j) \$ i: ^$ Q- I
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+ {1 H1 i7 e" d. e1 W( Z; BThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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0 J! O) i9 S6 K9 _Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 4 F1 F8 a# C& |$ R8 G1 i
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ; n, n& B" S+ W# d) H z6 l
( I T) e) ]; g% Z# h" hDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." & U8 x9 L# q, f0 @$ {5 u% u/ l2 I
9 }/ X8 p+ o5 r r! m& s2 fShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 2 N* N8 x' w9 x! m
5 T; q# }, y2 s"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ) j: T, P5 o/ Y5 D" E
+ k: w; V) R& |" F( O2 M% _Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 8 E" D9 [" Q0 u9 N& j
# e, L1 V l U; }' N/ I5 y5 `Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. * n8 c4 `9 |( o5 I% `# y5 R/ k
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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% E! z8 m# H% y' \* A) ]"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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) a0 J! g# Q M9 L4 `, J, v, f"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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' Y6 V+ w# k' I. o4 yHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." Z1 u! i/ Q. s4 j8 H
; n* R/ B/ ]% XExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. * b* G9 j: l1 y" l# \/ h: }4 r
8 X2 B$ }& g, K2 LOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. % t# K: Y$ a* K( v7 m& r; G( V
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ; K+ x4 j, i* H2 Z' m0 i, c _
+ w; h$ T* ^0 x. k4 wSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ( g8 o7 s9 X' M; y; V% ~
3 }7 g- k, \; n% x" OYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 8 D" c$ R+ Q+ ?( n# H: ^
; Y: O& O8 Y; C% |4 D& L& O! T"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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+ J2 b$ v% v% gLet the good times roll.
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! G/ W! I3 o/ @5 y3 CPrevious story: Bottom Line
- j4 |& @" y- q9 @6 P) H2 g; jNext story: Building permits hit record
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