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( v2 q O# Z% X, L. y In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.1 R8 F+ y8 Q8 ], }
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Thu, January 11, 20076 E' ]7 c+ V* ^& V/ m9 B$ W
" u% o; j, [1 n: ^4 n+ c( PPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007 s3 o1 w& \! g2 T( Z( F
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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2 f+ J3 C6 E0 UMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. , l1 R7 O2 U' s$ R0 Y2 J, [
" a& r. x" e/ o2 CBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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( L4 G% `. F/ l( u! g3 IDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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; |/ J0 V1 ~( Y$ f* EShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. + ?7 p5 a3 I' O5 o' W
% x5 A! b* _5 ~* T"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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% D1 ]# w$ u5 h+ q. R+ R"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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: U& [) ?9 j2 i1 YStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. - ]) T5 a3 l0 i2 d! P2 A) K
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 7 `0 b$ S7 o/ V1 n5 r1 a7 e# V
& D0 w* y# h: i4 A; N"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 7 F! X+ N. _: @. u) c" z! C5 s
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 7 w) l, w+ j. t# ^; w. s, H) ~
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . U& f) }) _/ M& n9 R% W" e
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ' d+ A7 P# ~( Z4 c8 l
- B" a/ W+ `1 f, o' @+ O* u"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 3 U! x; U4 L1 r" r: g; [
! V* G. Y; B% X. ?: U1 pSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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' D5 Q1 ?1 ] Y" p, {/ z" O( l9 `Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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1 t* l- @4 O: Y% h* l' a"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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. `6 G$ `4 B$ [* O$ ILet the good times roll.
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- h% ~9 _/ N0 B2 aPrevious story: Bottom Line
& S# I5 n' G( `9 jNext story: Building permits hit record
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