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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts0 p2 z2 q- S% _/ ]; I
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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; ]( D& y% I% z6 q! n) A7 E* MLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.# c# B' C2 H8 Y' l1 o8 O( S0 K
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.3 @3 ~8 L @9 u) s
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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( J/ ?, j) ~% n, S! vThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province., I2 |2 ` ?" S! R$ }( O4 h( r
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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. @$ H+ m. N3 F- L0 |Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.! o# o% j: Z( b# _8 J6 G2 n# H
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.4 I9 m6 B, O( u# i4 z' \3 t
/ O7 j9 ~2 P8 F( H3 FHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.( ]8 }8 d x1 c N% l6 o
! @: q5 \( i( V# {8 jIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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5 ?4 t* O# F3 X! v; f% [6 V$ nThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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) E) Y1 R! m( H; G, j“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.; `& g0 B7 t! m- z. j: \. D! v
! y' l% x: p7 @. A, HCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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6 P# r; B+ w9 W: y( dContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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. |# @: \& d& }% ?( [2 a3 a$ QMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level." v0 C& n" B7 ^8 C; P
3 _$ j; W4 a& w0 r; K5 oThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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/ B/ y6 f! X% A5 i+ ~“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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+ r. P* ] M8 h7 [' U* GTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.4 `& E/ `6 v. k, l# l
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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