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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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) c% b0 L2 x9 ]" H) \3 t' BGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET7 [5 V; _ i7 L: B/ I) w( O
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5 f" z& U9 V0 x0 R L& z* i+ h# W: ILast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
/ p* l( a$ L: h3 M+ k; OBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! B3 X5 K" `4 C, F$ q4 ]) G
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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) S- S9 K3 ~% f1 D( M# sThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.- c: v8 q5 T. F- T3 Z+ [& v& L* n
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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+ d `* D. s3 NIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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2 J6 n) G9 ]+ g) M; `8 XRelated
) e, p8 |9 b$ iCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns3 P5 s8 C6 H7 i. U% n, }
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
; }0 V* b2 [% Y( yThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over- m$ l2 h: u5 _! j' `: Z
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.% ?. k# b0 }0 `- w: g1 @( }* E: T
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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4 b' z% }4 N% _For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year. G6 b+ h) c+ {8 W
. k0 ^: C' a+ `CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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' ?: K0 _- B: `) e( k- Z9 c! rContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.3 k% r7 w! e% h' x2 `
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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# e: j$ F' \3 b: J2 d/ vThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.2 k9 x" b* q7 l3 k4 e
( s, H8 `! c3 z. J% k“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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- ~% o7 F: V, J) E" @Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.6 p* D4 P% m* a/ u' K4 x
4 F" s2 V' x* }* H' N“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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