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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts' g% U7 ~% \8 z9 A, c* z
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- r8 v S4 c# _/ DGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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5 e& B& z" E0 r% v' P" V: [Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.$ J+ `$ V# g* Q6 l
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.4 v1 M/ V, }! I- K: |7 g# g
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.: \- K q" ~9 ^7 y7 n
# d+ F' D, k8 T3 I2 h8 ~$ `. \In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.3 t4 w$ w, d8 r1 Z! _. G
- y) C& T- p$ f9 U: o# ~3 C. c“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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8 ^$ v e9 T5 o& T2 IAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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" Q7 k% b' g9 x' r" P$ G+ \However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.+ K7 j' l3 o9 A3 S: k0 |1 t
) q& g6 e/ H& r1 Z& |& v- J+ }/ sIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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/ L' P; R" s$ E: {: x: ]5 yCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns5 x* A) o: H$ T4 C+ L* V
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0 ~) N) M4 i! E1 d1 g. nThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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3 n' F+ m5 ^& V, [. c“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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( W* _( c. f# b) G; |+ {3 {. jCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.5 [ ]/ v2 I7 J5 A6 o
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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, F( _9 K* D5 {, uThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.5 l* Y7 ?/ [! d2 v! M" q; c
- x1 F3 `" f8 t" N* C# ^The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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# S4 _$ Q. G+ \8 Y“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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/ y8 f* f4 X2 Q8 |Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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n+ I* K+ h" A$ l“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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