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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts: q- k% W& s) C
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET# z0 k% R3 V6 ?. Q, L- Q+ u4 ~
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8 {) n( c( F9 I% Z" c* cLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.$ P& @% a+ J8 [
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.7 R/ |6 \: O# l: {
0 w" w6 @% J4 g2 d8 ]: ?That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.! F2 L+ {7 y; k) L* K5 j3 X. `% Z
3 b, ^! G: a; ?% J5 @“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.: c" w l5 p* O3 I- P' L. U
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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5 H. i% V& _8 e; B; q( mIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar., n3 `7 w7 n6 @9 p
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: d/ [8 G+ v5 \7 u! k& \# oThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over; G3 U* g$ p- U4 I
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! n4 U7 f; F1 a- V1 E' Q* HThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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$ m; z' Z2 j8 i3 `8 z“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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( c9 H; q: W6 \* K, _2 R6 l7 sCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.* g7 s) r; E( `% O6 n6 h7 N8 W
- p4 X" R$ S( f0 a; w; `) RContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.7 `& O6 Z5 r- `# A$ s( Z( d
0 t0 X+ S0 a3 t) J% l( w/ hThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.( k" V4 e" U* M8 Q( K3 S4 u5 ?
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level." o G; ^4 S9 F. @
: s. o+ `* F+ g% p, x, q5 _The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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" W# `' c" T- c! ?“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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