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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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2 V" F9 I# |- T6 F; m; W- HGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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6 ^) F, ]6 N0 \9 gLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
3 `' i( a- X2 ~. k. B% NBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.9 K8 \% b+ D) o( `- [4 _2 N6 i: x
0 |: S5 d( U" ?2 l2 E# sThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”0 e& L) x6 P/ T9 Z4 K; K5 P0 @
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.) ?/ ~9 }/ M! ]9 r9 A
* ?' |$ S0 {9 l4 R8 ?7 W“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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- _: G5 a* C; _4 Y! qAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.8 c0 U9 {: X, n3 Q
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.: f3 D7 u) j+ N
; h9 B5 v; [4 Y0 C9 p" qIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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2 B( o$ a3 u, J' V; hRelated
% e9 }2 Y& @: I6 FCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
% a$ N9 r. E% oCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
! t# z6 F# `8 P5 UThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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! E0 m0 B% ]3 ^" o0 }The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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9 w- k# u( E- o" w- x$ T$ _" kFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year. D- H; A+ x# K' i: g: d
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.$ w: E+ \1 T. \7 J, P
1 q$ A5 F- C1 g; O# ^7 GMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.8 g( s& W/ M, l
" G2 {! o' y& Y. ]! q8 VTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.( F, g. F7 h; M8 D3 W1 _
2 q0 N+ \" B h: y; ~3 C“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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