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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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& k8 O7 W& f; d2 }Republish Reprint& H+ O. Y- `2 u6 l$ T
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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4 d: ~; A: H* [+ ^5 ILast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
6 K3 @; X, A4 C( }% C* ?. fBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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$ a6 q& b' u/ n0 b$ k3 `$ j( ]OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.5 d, m4 T0 l! `' t
0 g! G; |) u8 H7 EThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.7 S, Y( b4 q* j3 Q7 v9 E
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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1 Z9 |+ t- I4 N8 _! b3 o“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.. z& |* W9 I! a- V4 `1 s1 e% ]0 w
3 B) `9 q/ b) b3 ?1 p& CAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.( N A2 a. ^; {. \/ B* A# W8 J
' J4 _5 i- w6 B4 E$ F5 U& L. fHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.) B$ q. ?2 A4 r8 H
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar./ y( v( n& [4 {1 N4 J3 g
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* Y# b. r! b1 ]1 ]% E" n# rCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns, R" ]+ O- z: A( L) A. d! ?2 c0 ]
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
0 r# t$ i, f1 XThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over* e5 u! z7 d" I3 E! S& O) a. l
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- Q1 _3 l; p# _, b4 oThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.7 h6 u8 w0 j* o* e! K: i' ^
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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; }9 j0 Q! t$ w- z7 y1 pCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.. g# U! `$ l1 U, F7 @' U5 R' y( C1 k
0 ^2 F* }0 {+ K& d( GContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.8 \* V* `- m6 z" Q6 z+ w
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.! X% u# |0 l7 U, R* N
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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