REIN August news letter

屯民 · 发表于 2006-8-25 08:35

NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...

The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
will be going.

It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.

The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
how much.

For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.

To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
months.

Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.

By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
2005 to June 2006), also great news.

By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
2006 New Housing Price Index for:

Vancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%

Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!

As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.

Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
fundamentals:

1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.

2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.

3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
beat it for long term investment.

4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...

Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.

In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.

Capital Gains Comparison.

KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:

BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%

Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.

* * * * * *

Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
when you take action as a full REIN Member.

Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
results in just a few short years.

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-8-25 09:26

原帖由屯民于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表# p, Q, z0 y% C3 M0 [
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX..., ]- d# W' U7 I- G/ l+ T

3 r( F; D# G6 P4 z$ K' d' ?) p7 u# X; J. \
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very# }- H0 X/ j0 {# L
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
8 y; ~$ l( F3 t- q& ~6 }, j5 kwill be ...

谢谢分享，你买了他们的membership吗？可以给我多发点文章吗？如果值得我也想加入。

屯民 · 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45

Yes, I am member. Below is an old one but I think it is very good.

http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49

You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.

http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp

今天闲着 · 发表于 2006-8-25 11:17

嘿，炒访团来了哈！

屯民 · 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27

You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.

阳光沙滩 · 发表于 2006-8-25 12:00

很象国内的股评.

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-8-25 18:21

看吧，每个月才3000人，一年人口才增加4万人，仅仅占全市总人口的4%，房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分（虚涨）。所以，降价是谁也挡不住的。

***醉酒认为，合理房价上涨=4%/年（人口）+8%/年（自然增长）+10%（经济前景）=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%，所以，降价空间很大，等等吧****

原帖由屯民于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
7 i. k+ u4 L% v) i* \NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...) j& K- ]5 a7 S

* \* d) u$ j" Q0 v* ^3 d
- h6 d) x6 ]- V( `  d/ t4 I1 JWith close to 3,000 net new people into: w. m/ E1 Q8 C3 H% k/ f
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
* v* C* K  W3 T- k! Y9 p0 o. Csaw the New Housing Price Index ...

[ 本帖最后由醉酒当歌于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]

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