there is a difference between peony (SHAOYAO) and tree peony (MUDAN), let's assume you meant SHAOYAO which is pretty common in Canada. 5 m( }2 Y' n! d& `0 J- K( Y% E3 Sfirst year no chance; 2nd year 50/50 (99% chance to bloom if you were in central china ); 3rd year 95% given that you treated it the right way.