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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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' I/ u1 L7 C% _" T# u9 O2 zMarket Commentary
3 T8 \  t: h  {' p. vEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" Q: ~% U+ w, @James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' j; j# g  j8 b5 k$ x* [" @5 L
Signature Global Advisors
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2 C: u1 v% M: A6 t1 K" pBackground remarks! O* E0 B! M; A- \( e" U/ B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 G) Q) r" t& [8 [) U# P- `
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% n1 Z- \! n+ A" V Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% I8 N5 s" n* T
adjustments.) U( b8 b. Z+ e# _. R2 M) U
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 C0 Q' h' k  n+ u, Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. ~) H; N7 y" X4 r1 }5 \+ F+ p
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% [; D0 Z$ `6 F% M2 Q0 A+ }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  q1 @. M% C. `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 P1 C8 n: ^9 w2 l2 a1 t% r
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 X# a/ B4 }  _' H5 R" e; i
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, {9 G# {$ u/ Q/ C. f$ F
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 Y) v6 X$ a; t( ?& v- \! u Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: }4 b/ f$ T% ?6 j
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' R( g4 m' M. ], \. v1 A
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation% H8 M( p) z6 B/ l. y  v/ F* Q- _
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 O) d# F7 f) J+ e: O. z5 ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; X& F! O' f. H% j; i) _
impose liquidation values.
9 z/ X- o. z  X1 @8 K In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( t/ g4 ?6 w3 v# v0 C4 IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 D, _; b% H9 T: w6 I
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& l0 N% Q+ ]% Z4 M9 C
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 W3 d5 P" D+ o5 ?3 k% fA look at credit markets
9 I5 J1 ~( |+ o% G' g: l$ R Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ `0 ]8 n. X2 E4 N( t% _! @( q- M( _, pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 h2 _  r$ T& W  k8 D2 o" @
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* e1 C* a0 J4 b( s6 G3 Z) Qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 h" w9 W. h% p0 ^: V
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* ]" p; [$ G! q& w8 ^" B. J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ h" d  q  k7 c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 a+ \- v) \' Z; cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 b4 Y. ], k3 O* x) n: y/ @
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# c& H9 l2 x) A# a0 \0 A+ I+ F% \finding financing.& q: d) L' c# z4 S/ F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 A1 X- _$ r' Lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: v8 @. h2 \- p+ V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' d) W# b( M( c; y1 X& i5 G! o
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ r. A: S4 C4 m' _& l- ?- f
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" I5 |; V2 k" y" ^0 A& s. Abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.9 h" M2 P+ p' v4 l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 Y% G6 j7 T" m$ o" _
today.
& S, @$ L' ]: C! {1 Q% _7 N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 |- ^7 h" x& y% V% C" R  i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 X1 K9 A: I7 f9 h1 Q( a4 C Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  k+ K, F& L# K4 S. J. }0 V/ \
the Greek default.% X. j# z# d  [! B, y+ g! T2 ?; O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 L8 D; x# t- p. x* h" O4 T, @
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 s# |7 B, y* c  u0 Z7 f5 Q8 _2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 w# C0 s- x6 A$ t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; j3 \* H6 q2 q7 }. J0 [
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- l7 p: _: v9 b9 S* k
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
/ V4 i$ x" S4 E( L4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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- c; q) Z5 l; Q) fBeyond Greece
- F) R7 ^  L! Q+ A7 B, J The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 |: r! i: D. D& w
but that was before Italy.8 O: n& h- v; z7 C1 t
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 g- I  q; R  [  c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
0 a. T! g: R+ E% i) g$ _4 ?. E0 p% ?Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
1 C3 h/ Z% N( u9 Y1 u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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