 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation% C- m8 w% X+ Z. @
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& ]8 A# r) e- I$ `; `4 X* a0 D/ b/ r& ?as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* B% c, Q! ~; D$ S6 ], Yimpose liquidation values.
- E# \& D1 y, ^& h& u" f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% ?1 ^2 U+ `% L# ^' P" Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ ~7 B7 G& u0 j1 G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, b$ s5 y) F7 i. v2 {& V/ wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
) \2 b% V. A3 |1 R( u! u Z H7 T% ~ p: N0 d w9 ^
A look at credit markets
& u- e. A$ X5 g2 f: k$ t Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; Q+ t+ S5 K6 b& c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 c; b; h/ @4 C/ t" s" K& Y3 K4 m- r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 z7 f5 b, P2 _7 o% e3 M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ e8 U" w1 Z/ N0 ~3 o9 z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, H0 K) x; `* {
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, h& w' B+ }4 y4 }CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 L% o- S3 d) D( R: lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, f# u' K1 r+ B( m Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& H8 D2 q# m0 Y6 U' kfinding financing.- J2 {/ ?2 A7 ^4 C* K* Q5 e6 i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 j3 V) A* }' c: z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 z. g3 r' O* E- R! w8 {- _4 R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 |7 t- o8 }; t `4 J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 S' R# f$ n& c( @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: b v$ M& A; T1 x" O \1 K1 y; I
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ w; K: C6 i; j( w7 |* y# p European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. C4 n7 m) G7 v0 ftoday.
7 }9 m% L3 Q0 u% w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 V. `( {& O# i# R: ~: A
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|