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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
5 C# }2 |0 R  ?) ?+ C! ]3 l
6 A' W* D4 G, t  c. |, t7 J3 {Market Commentary: S1 u6 X# j& F0 E3 n+ g
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ z; Q- T5 J! \0 n; T6 u/ gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  [3 K+ y0 N( d9 T# Q' cSignature Global Advisors' I2 a1 ~3 R4 D# T3 C& j

2 O( H+ u4 q% C; I# e; \
2 Q2 M& s0 N: s4 `9 H3 P* m8 pBackground remarks
9 n4 r5 U0 X$ m+ A) |* P3 L Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% m* P2 v# l! i  o( ^' s  l
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! l5 D$ g4 V! b2 g. C Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 u5 U! S5 Z1 eadjustments.
( ]- j+ P9 e9 ?: }- H  e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' \4 [% g& E# @  D% P1 m
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  H. K7 X. t) q& ]# c* x) x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 h. v( G. J' \
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 [/ B, B& W: r, X: D
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these- S0 @9 y. U, n
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) }. I8 h: R9 h% b: v) N
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 E/ S& f# D  ^
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. Q' ?" E; ~. R& k0 z Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ t. _5 P: H  \, b
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 e7 G7 W: o" o6 `9 F& Q+ Z* {/ B' Oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 X" t' ]7 z$ z+ p5 C* `
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. `/ U2 _. |& `
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) k, d1 R1 Q+ D/ S0 Y
impose liquidation values.4 G% G, N$ q: I/ {0 k0 y" B
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' y+ K: T( X0 {6 LAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  w! b- V# v! }  m9 O* x# g- R The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& q" A8 a$ B& h3 f+ b% l
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ W' X* e7 t( A. p0 L* C
9 `; u& `0 T- R# ?& R0 m
A look at credit markets. p7 |4 h, v' G
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 q" s6 p; s" p9 }2 |" \
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 U/ s, }* u. ^6 N4 D+ R! Q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 q8 e2 C$ n' H! W, Dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 R. S6 _0 m, b  abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) U6 g4 W0 S" Y1 z/ V
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 Q8 r, E8 x1 P6 d# s7 W8 z& n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( ]; S! W- z4 i
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  x, r" Y  d% P  V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 O! v3 f* c7 {0 T; J  I6 J) ifinding financing., P( Y. `2 o: L' L7 j( K
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* c0 p( W9 }! J& v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- t: O  Y6 J" p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- G4 Z. Y9 m3 |+ ]5 z/ v: Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ V  l* \: V9 ], o& W% T8 \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ X& W9 H) L% g, i2 b* d" Q, I4 G6 E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 a7 M6 [5 t7 C' Y2 A! [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 |! K$ N! A3 ~* stoday.# h& b7 v) S: K/ G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& j1 x+ Z; H, Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 R- {3 [/ g" ?; e& k) o9 ^
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ ^! W" D: v: T) B) U( m7 I
the Greek default.0 @* }  W. ]) i* ]; i/ V
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: E9 k! ^- m: v4 A. W1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 \9 C* y" a0 F3 k2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! e0 ]5 f- |* {! F; X7 }2 m, vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals." z1 i3 x$ _  v
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ W0 C( V0 v$ k0 a' R# L$ ]0 fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* m  n0 L) l& |+ Y  ?: d3 ^
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
/ x9 i- @8 K1 [+ l8 N, i8 l
3 O; M2 T( f- |6 v" YBeyond Greece9 F6 I, ]% H+ t9 {) v% q% V2 ?: L
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% {: F/ ~2 d1 H5 h1 k$ ]but that was before Italy.
5 ~- k/ g$ D# _- g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" m# l8 C( ~' J9 [! f It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 P/ T. S$ P' [+ n5 D
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; \5 n" A+ [( Y; x. H' S4 n

9 [' n. [% I0 I  N) t/ XConclusion
4 p- Z* U$ p1 B We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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