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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary3 d# \( U7 c( E
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  B: n1 t  m8 EJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
* z% I  d8 C8 V& \: d9 nSignature Global Advisors  ~/ S( |4 L4 I

$ Z) G# t& N4 X' w, O
- i" ]" C3 [1 t  l- VBackground remarks1 E7 w( M3 v$ [# P
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
) r' w9 n( {4 g+ z3 _  Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: T$ p  q" R+ z: Z Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' m: e# K4 \9 B. C! \4 O: X, Padjustments.
+ j: N& r$ J* N) t; B This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: u! F9 C2 K0 _$ hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 q, ~. T& x" F8 _# } Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 g) f* m  A# r: L3 flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  v! O3 d! T2 ?5 _0 B! z( |2 \% e+ U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" e% n# s6 L( g$ madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.* W/ Z& Z" b% x+ v/ D: N! ?
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. F- o0 O+ o: v3 x- L0 T" Uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ v1 n6 V1 h; R( a* g
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: W" W9 K0 o% M4 |
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
% A1 v7 T9 p0 _4 c" s+ ~reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ J) V* @  G+ V% K The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  j; Y) V8 {% L6 H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# n7 `' M& E6 ?; D8 n2 M0 t$ |; v
impose liquidation values.
$ i8 q% Z; P" B/ e In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! f" Y8 K" F: Q& X5 vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." V' w# ~" v1 {& D! |5 y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' `5 \# w4 T# a6 L3 D' s: rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# ~5 @  _9 H6 x% d' w
5 B6 q- V+ i, W4 m' @  K
A look at credit markets
7 V& J& @$ q! W% c+ |$ d5 F: ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' _( ]  H0 Q& {$ R. [( y* l
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: ]# S2 c' n' E3 f* U* q  U High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ Q# Q& L$ \" V1 @$ i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, H3 ^) v# M9 q) k3 z( ^' Q+ pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: F: O3 {. E$ n6 T3 B' g
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 v7 C' Z# r' W  t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- i% |* `  b1 s! |/ S; Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 l8 I* j. H- K4 d0 K: L Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble  j. n9 |1 u9 f2 w; j# v: L
finding financing.
2 w+ `% N4 \+ q" |5 A8 r Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* M: @/ Z- \9 q9 z9 n
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# e. y8 Y1 Z- { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 k" X2 D3 B0 Z  C- L. F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 f: r8 o' k% \: I$ i  jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& p( n; ~% O4 m- s' J- z: Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ ]; x6 z/ v2 a+ B# a4 x
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: J- G0 i+ \" E5 v+ i( ~! s9 |today.
; C, e5 M& i" R( a$ x" | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, T( T. ~1 t, {1 semerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 P& w$ y; L8 v/ k1 Q0 {& ] Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 C* K, c6 t9 b4 w" l& ~( g  }
the Greek default.1 [* K1 N3 b2 V* E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" U: j  Q0 u3 O: f; W, K" c& A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ E; K( l$ Y6 A3 |; k2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ X' `* l7 b  n: S8 ?% y: D+ V% k: mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ l' R3 f3 q# R' D/ e6 I/ B9 Q3 h
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) p5 s; Y: d2 |$ R  ?
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ |. f1 G: j: A( D9 q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; O( ?  J+ L- h" {* ~( v* E

( Y2 a* U0 b) E  eBeyond Greece
8 H! \+ M- Z1 q9 z- ^4 v) _ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- v1 O. i( l7 j# ~7 v4 }. Y+ j0 a
but that was before Italy.+ z* Q0 I3 C( c7 B* D
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." H: y. k! A. f  r% v6 W/ J9 Y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# s- G8 p- v9 j6 R- CItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
$ _+ ^( h" v9 R) O8 m3 c5 F) C7 C We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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