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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary/ N, D$ q; |* [; ^
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- h8 [7 s# g4 {' D7 Y1 e: [* HJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 Q% T. l5 r1 m0 X( ]# X, `Signature Global Advisors
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5 F& }6 @$ t% D/ k& w% @  I9 U! b# o# A' m: B! M% X
Background remarks& h  S& j" y& i8 \' t' ~  F: l9 z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! A4 j8 p1 q: f9 L3 T
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 n6 d& _# P' s* u% ?0 a  J Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- F) J2 L$ V4 T! b3 l
adjustments.
( `6 F" y2 o3 w7 y/ `2 J This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social1 j# U# Q( I; W: e8 d9 P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ c0 r/ a7 J- ^  r4 l4 e Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' j! t( S6 e  P: m
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 e+ z: X9 d2 o5 M( Y, Z% b8 ^
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these' p" `- r  D( M& K& A$ m
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." b. L: C' u) V# a$ U! [& ?) G# s
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 ^0 g; j# W9 u; J, ?/ vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 |/ C$ z( a' ]2 M# K; y2 V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' T$ L+ [$ R  b2 e Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# i* [# T$ W: B6 _
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: Z9 V, `# b% ?( q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# r5 f' W& w4 U$ F4 kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: O4 T9 w% c! t7 V& v. X" Z  Q3 v
impose liquidation values.; g5 O- f' R0 v( y/ O  Y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 x# c& c% n* ]$ I' x* z6 \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, K0 F, N7 V: I5 K9 o/ V" I# q- E/ T The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 H( {2 {6 ]; B- D: q; M( Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ k2 x' b; _* A4 `

5 \! u; x" R! S3 M+ j- `+ q: [/ gA look at credit markets. V0 u7 F  A2 `/ A
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 H6 H* x+ j/ D0 q. G7 n6 Q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 s% ]" i+ _& |1 C
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 B. f6 y6 ?3 Z+ h) K* b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: b" ]$ n) W. E3 ~  Z; y+ ^& ^
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ [! [: }# Q7 p: s" U
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& i' R5 ^% U1 L) S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; @8 v. g0 l& L8 |* A4 D% wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: r5 {% L9 T# o( G Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" H. G, ^' g1 O5 M: E5 E- ?5 J/ U( ^finding financing., H" {# J$ X! j" Y6 e$ H7 c; j" J3 \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they& T1 N5 ~) ^) d% v$ s
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 U/ [! a  e5 ~8 p" y7 c2 U Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 ?+ q5 ^# e- f% T3 D0 W" his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& g$ ^7 A, {; M! \4 @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: j6 b0 X0 O9 `& k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ K  G) R- X) j3 h* Q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ Q: r' m. ]4 L& w  ~today.
) {8 z. ?- }7 Y" P1 C: {  P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* Y: h) m: u5 G7 {: o" t0 y4 f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% a9 Q  h5 g* Y) c$ I Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# L6 k' h4 K9 L( z2 M/ s  j( e( [
the Greek default.
' d4 X- F. c8 [1 X6 C As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; G8 n8 Y1 {; ?: B$ w: }
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 J* h# f2 \# ~* p7 h' f2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: q9 G/ c8 A3 g8 `& Bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 W6 x& o( p. m) v3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing0 o* ~: Q) a5 K+ O1 K+ c1 E
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years+ @2 C9 b6 m" [4 z( O, h( P
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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$ b( N/ [) K! I7 M. sBeyond Greece  n- z0 _3 c% A- J0 C& q7 S; \
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ V8 [4 `& ~" b) D' [  v. z
but that was before Italy.5 p; v' j% n7 D: Q3 M
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 ?. l+ |5 i- e* x! `
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& m& o3 X0 n0 _/ f2 l9 U! CItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.) {7 Z) o! y' o- m  K
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Conclusion
" g/ V% L" x0 H! O$ O6 R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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