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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。1 @3 Z+ l% h  w7 v6 T0 T9 S0 a1 d
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Market Commentary
3 ^* W- i- f8 s1 L& KEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& s3 Z9 _* j5 f! x0 G9 y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager; g' J7 @5 _, s$ K- I
Signature Global Advisors$ E3 n. D1 c: Y' @5 ?  t8 d

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& l/ X2 f  ]: c) n% f- XBackground remarks3 V3 P" q- P4 D1 R3 ~* _1 }7 ?, i
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ D$ e( n) k8 W% ~/ `as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, X# y+ T: r4 [; ]0 n& L4 |. | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( ?0 N7 ~. K* F1 C9 Vadjustments.
* S1 o' \7 O9 g4 d& r This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& [6 j* p+ r: r- G
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" k9 h9 ?2 M' J. s2 o- J Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are! D3 V: [0 l. e" C  N2 j5 w2 U
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ N, z& E; k! J! X2 ^ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; |0 _! `' o9 R6 Qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# P8 a5 ~/ \: x+ _6 q. }  u: e Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 q+ r; y4 B/ ~. h
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; S2 I5 Y$ _, k  l' D: E7 a Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 w, I. `% d. b! m3 S! S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& o- U- ^8 K1 r0 S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! I; U: @4 X+ q- o- e
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; X6 ^/ U5 X* n6 ^, |; G
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 H8 T  j: u, \& B0 u
impose liquidation values.# u4 ]+ o. t* c( R/ }
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  f- V$ h; c3 j+ u, `' {4 [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 L1 M% U+ {% D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension3 ]0 B: I+ g3 B( y0 v
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 k5 K, u% H# ^/ ?# nA look at credit markets
: V( }; J- p5 N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ m3 m) c0 y. P2 w$ o( [& i
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* T4 D* G* K$ j& [% x8 I$ L
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. C1 }; k6 V$ i, p/ Nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! i0 s- v0 X9 G- c6 t
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& u5 g, `9 k8 h0 `2 `/ naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 q+ P6 k+ V5 }! c* _CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% {+ x; C# T3 A. P9 ~. ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' G/ `1 T2 ?* z6 K. J$ f Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( d) O1 n' b/ G+ D
finding financing.. ?& S  C+ l9 i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they& F' x) D" f* l$ Q5 _7 Y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! g; [& L$ Y: |' U7 E) r Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; ^; G% w4 ?8 D! ]! E# ^. H7 eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% c. d/ t1 t4 B: D
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 w. C  d7 o7 Q$ ^- t0 T- r4 }, A+ P! Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: V" h  x' M9 H, x* L
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) P$ ]( g, j+ ]5 M
today.3 z" A' p# L2 x, @9 {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 ^9 ~, @# Z9 d2 L$ d2 C1 w- @3 }
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% h; M7 M; z! T1 n+ u Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 F: f1 I9 c% Z; \
the Greek default.& E2 K" D2 ]: D
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( T4 ^& u6 z% b  \2 @8 c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 b  u; [* J* K, B/ N/ L2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 t& b! ~" P0 k7 z+ R
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.# c% V% J7 L( |2 f' E$ h
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! i% x6 Q/ J0 r2 K4 A; G$ [
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  B4 i! L! J8 f6 P5 Y3 x  @5 T4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: ?( A8 c! o6 \+ M; ^9 U6 z6 S

4 L8 y% }1 D) X& P# A1 W+ h1 mBeyond Greece
( ^9 a) V3 |+ c" S1 u  ] The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," k: t! |$ i3 Z; }8 }( K
but that was before Italy.
+ d2 M* F" T! f+ ` It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 ]4 b% j7 j9 c9 l, W9 N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 a1 V8 x4 T8 A; QItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., o, g1 x2 f/ X  K1 P
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Conclusion, `& y% v. u/ t3 `
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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