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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ W9 w4 B) k+ p9 b7 R+ d) d

8 @; u5 ~, b! @  LMarket Commentary
0 ^+ @7 L3 {5 x5 l- g# b5 R/ D/ aEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 K* Q4 k  S7 g. f4 `James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 `% L, t9 R6 s% R/ ^Signature Global Advisors; a8 ^2 X' ?  ]' D
% O' G2 L4 |/ h, R4 N
+ f: u; R6 Y* ]  g# U/ e
Background remarks: i) t0 Y3 N1 N2 l! m8 Z( p
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 i, N6 K5 [6 }& M. p
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 Y. {' g7 w3 \' I
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 P) ?4 n9 q: q" N4 D: `+ i0 u* badjustments.$ J3 a: J/ p( v/ e+ z: t
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( t% D, a+ K- y$ j; P+ I' `3 C1 \
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 X7 d' d  F; |  M* x Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' n0 N' x, ?( ^; P& ?$ C' T. n( i% Zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 b' T) c1 Q0 k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- H+ _% R" n5 \! y8 }9 U- ?( xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 {& p& F+ y4 x5 Y- N
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 g- ^# g3 C2 E. b- S* W: e
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 e& e1 v6 ~) g: Q5 e7 C' q. q
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& {& t' [/ L# Q: z( e Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 P- I8 |6 c# k+ k9 D# l% U
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 A: Q3 x8 w& u
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ D3 ?0 P. X, W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. Z- B! L" V' K0 v7 A
impose liquidation values.9 ^, Q* \+ ?8 Z; b
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ H: q% y  `% I4 G9 Q- j$ q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 y) j* b9 M0 v7 P( ~1 j6 H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 I6 S( B# X; p  _* N% k! y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ w3 W# R% k/ ^5 h* }0 h$ ~; v

7 ?% u9 y: Z' o$ X8 }A look at credit markets) h3 {" A5 {( [) T; Q  T
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ P7 S; V, c+ A% _
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 ^5 s/ X: k, z2 B0 @  V2 i) |6 M
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# T- q. p. k0 b; B4 uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: i0 T; ^$ F9 L9 D3 m0 O8 f
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, U- _2 U8 ?7 T4 \0 Y* ^' N/ n3 C
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: P$ |9 F3 y8 ]2 I* f; o; _0 i
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 Y* Y- E& D4 ^- v
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! H  J/ Z" {$ D, ~3 f5 O& f0 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  }* L3 v7 L' E' V4 ]finding financing.
6 b# G0 C5 u* ~. ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 v* Q: e0 t2 e+ L! q- Iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 b9 \  e+ p8 x5 Z( D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 M0 b: D8 _* U4 w% L- k+ Bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 K6 t6 e; b# t3 v" q! ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# ?5 E8 e) @! r7 bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% m) c6 C  c! f* R& ]; i4 n. ]6 K- Z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ o" p$ x9 Y; R7 ^) Utoday.# E8 K. f9 m0 q
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. |9 t# I9 F8 |+ m" q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& ^: q# Q6 u* n/ b1 \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: |1 ?; b: }5 y% Uthe Greek default.
' q+ ~; x' |2 L8 F$ d! \7 l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* ^( `) K1 Y9 B* ^
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( d( T2 o1 S# B; B% I2 Y$ ?! E# p6 Y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 r8 F2 D1 @4 P6 [$ u0 j, s( mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 d/ X. u+ D0 V
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 h& u9 P2 U! H( q) M
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years+ t; G# R9 y0 a" b: t5 q' |
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
( M* f; |4 Q- N# H  u/ v6 |
+ t! A8 l" X& a) NBeyond Greece6 `( d9 O6 q6 _1 w7 v6 h# a! b
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' h9 W2 V, `5 t1 ^
but that was before Italy.
& s7 F1 ^1 f, r$ [$ s" j It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS., Z. U  a+ |  `: q5 u- i! Z8 ^& B
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; h, l' E% G; w2 X0 d1 BItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 w( w( W$ A- X/ I/ \( q1 H

7 F! _: [& e8 e! ]* J- ]' `( ^Conclusion8 ]* t5 V  {) l4 S' q0 ~
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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