 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation- b5 Q* P; x, e# A' l7 h0 Z+ P7 L& ]
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' v5 S6 \3 l4 U0 @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# V, p Q5 h) C: [& O2 d& ^, v# k/ X: k
impose liquidation values.' M- X0 e- }! b
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: X3 h( p- M; @August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 C7 b/ E# M3 K! Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 O' d( _" R% c" @4 B/ X+ qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
: s8 _6 g4 y! n2 g' Q! Q* |7 O% w; Q, Q' U
A look at credit markets& w. e4 X, \6 }7 {' Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ C" y! p* \$ \( k/ _4 ^2 b2 a- M
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& F8 j% c/ D$ T, p# Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 S/ [6 R! q" T/ H) [) e2 k2 K6 sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
2 b* J. j: w: Z) jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. Z) u, k( I0 H' q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; d1 g0 ?! r, C3 ?, p6 m* b
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; F Y8 Y$ k) H/ i1 k( v1 Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 c, i! f! z! i. G9 b. A
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 k ` O8 l' x+ o' e+ M* A
finding financing.9 B2 L$ s2 z- X5 V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 }. m0 Y9 E K" Q1 Rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 u9 C' Y# t: G- R- F# `4 X
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" w: T' Q% r) _# X, _* q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 p+ V: b9 x4 ?$ \" }going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: }+ x0 L# ~( hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 F$ L; E! [. { European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! o q( U/ b+ Q. b* I+ otoday.
2 b, W0 ]3 w, C U# ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; J# \* R+ s! Y3 j
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|