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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。0 t( p! B* O9 Z( o6 Z( b5 ~
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Market Commentary4 ~+ L2 u* T  t; u$ a2 t2 B
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) A1 X3 p: C8 O/ N4 |James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: ^& o0 X( c; Y8 z
Signature Global Advisors$ o$ m) A8 w: Y1 y) f" I& j# z
+ m9 }9 b; p: S+ P; M" A

3 K% Y/ q0 |" P. BBackground remarks
0 p  S6 Q2 w9 }: ~2 N; j6 o Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ g8 x; @: N# O/ n4 G( |3 n/ F0 uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  W' d, l: s; p8 B# p! x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 n" B2 V  ~( T* Gadjustments.  M5 \; z  O9 p! b9 P( t
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 O5 }1 f( Y& @! O% T2 hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
( }2 M( J- e6 [7 g" G, H Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" o  `6 i" Y8 F0 Clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' H; M3 \; Q  G$ W& |; @ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
! h  r8 t5 t6 ?2 ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  c) |+ T8 b" e0 r
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 d! W& Q, s9 ~) r% j8 W( Z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 \$ k7 P! O3 e) C+ d0 S
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 R& a# q! D% Y' H" O6 J7 T
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
) Y7 ^: k1 O; X* s# z7 n$ O4 d8 L$ zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: X: D$ h2 M6 j7 J1 G The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* D1 |$ ~, a4 ?+ Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 z1 I8 s2 g9 A5 L( _. p
impose liquidation values.
5 h  k  g4 @9 C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 t2 a$ N' O$ h! q( g& @7 zAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) S- L% @# L0 w' C; W
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* ^# D; O7 F4 J) vscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# }" U# @( u. O2 r  ~/ s' j

+ _2 f, f; y) lA look at credit markets8 Z! _# S3 |% X2 L$ T/ k( L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  m0 X1 I: g8 {" T: U4 `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 i* R* h7 W6 [( _/ q# y2 P. Z/ \: z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 W# {% o  N1 I; Zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 @4 C! `/ p4 O: i2 ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 j5 D( {9 E3 z; @
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 i9 X/ M/ _/ z3 ]* C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( J% |0 l: A3 n  H, l; O2 H% P
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& x% x- O4 [: X
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 I8 V1 Q6 ?/ e, \finding financing.
; a" I( c3 ^6 E! a7 n. y: v Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 `8 W, V/ }1 ?
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& g( J5 M( H; ?: t Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: x$ W$ x' O: N/ k. V4 y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 h$ v. [5 G9 w5 A# }* I6 s5 s8 S5 ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 \( Q% J4 B2 L. G, i4 H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# P( x- C; |9 S/ S European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 J  i5 T( L7 Y$ k/ a
today.3 t1 N# m4 h$ P
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 Z' a2 r& O' G# s, r
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda3 P% |) @# n8 D, f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" W- A  a$ l1 ]- Z9 R( S" _/ Ithe Greek default., c6 e* E, q0 H% V' U; I! _+ ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- z/ r( D8 J4 |* k- c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! Z2 N5 F: p/ |2 c% b2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& ?- B2 }1 X, }+ ~9 R9 @
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 ]+ U4 Q( ?0 ~0 E/ X* e3 U$ y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. D7 A9 l& u7 j$ F7 M0 \
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 I3 N2 S$ a* S' {# H; O1 Z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) d- G. ]  H% y2 x4 {' i) o; P0 K

8 n* {, j9 m0 K0 H* o& I) fBeyond Greece2 _1 m& u1 \! M* W- g* C- k3 K
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 v% Z6 a# w6 K, }  q$ \. R+ }
but that was before Italy.
- k; v0 Z' Z! A- ~9 x; O$ p+ l It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& \: O: x) U3 q, r
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 U4 l' a/ b' e) ?# s
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 M2 ?, H/ k2 \5 ?$ n6 i6 e
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Conclusion
' {' Y4 v# }2 m- t" L We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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