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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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3 u3 {- i7 }- i* UMarket Commentary/ Q5 ?4 Q4 s9 w4 u3 j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer. s  y: _. G. ]0 V6 n
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager; y6 v$ d1 s6 O7 j3 O: ?
Signature Global Advisors! ~% h) x8 L+ e' I5 v) \' O( V

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; B/ {1 q( {9 b3 w5 {! hBackground remarks
2 _/ F7 V5 c/ c7 [9 Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* L. z8 V9 O. Z+ g! S& f% fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 l' S# `& _0 H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ X, P3 ]# E8 f: i
adjustments.
  b6 f1 Q' e' u9 t$ h3 u This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
9 Q" P  v& x$ v* Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, W0 g* E5 F" {" ^6 s, ^& ^' K2 a Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& Z) y: L: ^" w' _" u; k3 Klessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& m9 t8 k4 J( J* [& S$ c0 g) S2 q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, C; D/ n9 Z1 W- M5 W+ Z3 \: C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, o2 f( `8 y) B Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' s1 |; M1 s! i4 xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., B- O8 ?5 O, e$ j4 y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 T$ y6 a  ~$ p* j
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( Y# _. k0 x7 F: `4 D
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
. A3 K9 f) J" S5 g9 ~/ D- J. V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! n6 l; X& a3 V+ p4 `- E3 kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' c) P. Q. h( C3 P
impose liquidation values.4 W5 E8 e7 N2 R" y% J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( _. d' V, v; B. u* \: YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 t4 q* t+ s8 R
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ X! a1 g# {5 c6 R6 B1 S5 e, r
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
$ t4 X' G6 g. r: I* @- ]- g& F. w5 U* X8 A1 Q8 s: A$ ~7 {
A look at credit markets
, ?% E$ {8 o2 L2 K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# p7 f: E9 ]% w$ W( A% ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ v, c6 V9 s& g, b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 t  K4 Q. f- l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) s) I/ ~6 _8 n: |0 r5 N3 H3 Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' e8 P: O1 w# n) m, p0 ?access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 [1 a# W- Y5 k- lCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" ]/ }% G: f, t1 j: D$ }2 k# Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: u3 j4 O/ [/ |9 H5 U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ W9 w4 a& J; H# U
finding financing." a! c8 E/ J' L; }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. v4 ]; e% Y" l6 ], Z8 i% Nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 }) N6 D1 c2 H+ f% m" g& w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ g! g; N% z3 Q( V' x  ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! ]* X. L' Z' p, q, j& a$ egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 s6 U" u6 y& C" i# @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: |& @6 {: l9 v
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, n" p+ Y" P7 _/ qtoday.8 d2 U# X5 w9 K% |  [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  x  }" a, W' W% D9 F
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 ^9 ^& v5 {  C% V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% W% x; V; ^, p$ _$ o# M4 Z1 c3 h
the Greek default.
: C4 H  e' O6 g  k# b As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& ?2 U) O5 ]2 o( O+ J& ~1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 ?+ w7 Z8 ~8 d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, j2 m4 C# l4 N, Y1 E6 W; Idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* Q3 r/ Y: j+ T/ d" Z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! A* u  w9 I  [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 \7 u8 B3 n4 D: t# `4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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! m8 f& y; [, H( G0 FBeyond Greece1 j1 |# d+ d% E3 h# x2 `
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 K+ h' m# g% f* ibut that was before Italy.
- h5 ]: \, _- |0 {, c" M6 d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- D' {0 z$ b6 ] It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ T; W5 [4 B5 }5 fItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.) v' J, k7 V5 {: Y% o" i% k5 @

8 i2 p$ K5 m7 G: {: NConclusion, E2 E# i; H9 U$ b
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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