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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 i; x, G1 A: g- A& d# Q
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Market Commentary. {3 |5 s. ^7 @; R" }
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( Y5 Q, {2 X# z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
( g" K5 Z$ L- `' `0 Z- fSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks" n& w% ?. I/ N  B$ S% H1 o
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; c' N8 F9 q: p3 G$ v* `
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
1 Z1 i0 _' j/ W Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: j! z1 N  x, Q" B  C0 |& f2 \1 F" cadjustments.
, O4 i- G8 |2 b This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ r6 t7 `- G- M! t7 M
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; |. P0 N1 m, s Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
+ F) c7 C5 w$ V8 K& Z4 Qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ V1 t1 {" O" @0 \( H% i2 g4 m We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 S2 ~1 y4 g! G( `' i, _+ p) dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 X$ g, b% ^6 [7 b7 p" _
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; v# [" n5 {5 S( [6 N& C5 V0 ^
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& `+ P) k# C+ l' B! v Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) k7 U. X5 p! D( }8 p$ u
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 G% _$ y) Q, U) X( p% ]reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! B) o& ?8 y3 G' j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ i" T3 C3 B! i. }' }as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: L1 u1 ?* j' cimpose liquidation values.  X3 G- N& |$ \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 W. n5 Q% y$ _5 a& m+ r4 FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" q- r6 r0 i" x9 R, I9 P The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 ?- B: w4 Z9 x" Y0 r. |4 p6 cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets3 Q% W) Z  l0 y# n% c0 O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 F$ O# K  c7 U  U1 ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  Z% v. O; L' y8 W5 u2 Z( {/ B* O High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" ]  X% V; X7 }8 }9 A: A* N: ?) f' K
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 T( P& Z9 q8 E/ Q0 N! G' [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- ~7 l' A; t. l1 D, J- i6 Q1 B4 maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; |, Y$ q! g5 L
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 H# P2 k4 H0 z: `  Vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 k! `5 [& [# G# ]" _: J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( x5 R$ }9 s9 q7 W# a1 Yfinding financing.% Z$ @) y$ \; v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: I6 ]$ s6 }) twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: u( d" m- i1 O; {8 y% Q3 u
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 ?5 n; _. W% U- e1 k3 nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& \+ u7 ?7 A4 A$ F7 x. Fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 L, N$ E8 E, Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- x! x* G# n, A& c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 M) b  `# T- L7 a4 mtoday.
: N% {# C; q8 l9 W5 k Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ t* R) U5 a) s- L' M, H5 v; W) b. jemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 n, g. P) c  D5 h$ L1 e# |! k Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 m4 A$ {5 Q5 x8 P0 S7 Nthe Greek default.
6 I. M7 M' |. T% u( ?8 \3 b. X As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* J- A: D2 P7 m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 _) l: i' d' w" L9 g& ^7 C
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' n) H) f5 {- F) A4 ^debt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 @/ {; Q5 w8 a. }
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ w: {9 k9 X: y/ B5 [8 S7 rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
! y, Q' `; D% [5 Z4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece6 q. L8 m6 G) o, l' `, M" N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 ~2 N) y8 i4 W) r! e
but that was before Italy.
% X% `' n0 f5 ] It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% L3 @  K7 F/ b9 W It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: A) b+ v+ k: K# Q* ~Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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