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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
  E& ^: l. T) w6 i' I# e1 W2 v; Q* r( U0 v- l3 z. x1 A
Market Commentary
6 d0 }) t2 P" @4 Q: R% {$ S" PEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- \, N9 }6 L& w; H/ s( Z( `: xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! Z; _% t/ x  b2 d# g
Signature Global Advisors* }9 P3 A' W. F( i& ?1 F
' Y% _0 a' Z7 ?& B

2 F4 X' \$ {, o; d5 EBackground remarks
' K6 v; f3 \8 }" O: X" }- c! l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& j$ f: j  m, C3 r( d2 y' ~% D; V
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 f/ ]2 [6 p5 x) i* Q# x! F Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& N9 ?9 A4 c! D  X7 U$ W
adjustments.3 `0 c* x. e+ S. ~8 a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ d) o+ K1 E& B. N5 W: [% psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 U, J6 v2 q& e9 ]3 P" D2 C Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 c1 Z/ J: _0 U6 i
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% u! C: ], R: L
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ ]6 j2 I3 w* Vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- R2 I! L: [7 G. {& P
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& U" s) y; j0 f5 V4 hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." {# E. H* Y9 H/ R7 h4 g- Y5 ]
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
! |5 P+ P* i7 V" K- l5 ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" y! L. R  l+ h; ~+ S: E) freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; I  N3 ^, l5 g# }) Y9 w The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ Q: |3 R- X, O9 ^4 k" eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ U9 s  Z- ]& e5 jimpose liquidation values.  L4 r" h9 ~; V5 c8 ?% G9 O6 m: X
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ V# Q/ K& V2 s8 U# F; \
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 u1 c2 w0 ?8 @3 w) O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; I4 E- p, s/ d- I/ V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 D/ N+ `( i. Q1 J& W
% k2 e9 ?1 D" m5 R1 j
A look at credit markets
; [# l* t5 N; j+ Z) B Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" X, E9 S9 o2 i' A- e/ ]; D
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% B4 W! c. ^9 f) u# ~  {% F
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 ~3 l) _% _$ v( O! m& ~then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 ^5 S6 J) H: P2 ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( t8 R0 [1 H8 E$ ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- |7 a7 f8 t; E, \2 p3 OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* r4 |5 [0 L4 O$ A8 u) m. K/ s& Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  K  }6 N- S  {# D, d: h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 Q3 a8 g) g, l" H+ e
finding financing.+ B3 `/ _6 v1 @: M# J. q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! c. z  ^% Z# }& n+ I+ \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* P; b" Y- Q; \+ T. e+ J8 h; [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: v4 ]& a- F) U) vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 Y/ @2 i" r' Z2 [3 F! xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 ?0 q& H0 Y# F5 d: {
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ g. V$ |& \6 y+ [. G5 S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ V7 A) r5 W* W3 qtoday.0 _1 k6 t7 q: Z) r2 @
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. l( [4 a' g% k) L, \- q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" E& I$ v' H- z8 @$ J% {3 o' E5 U4 }6 g/ R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 u) y0 I" ~4 ?: J1 Wthe Greek default.
6 S* V& ^! E! W& g4 m# @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 h4 m% @- j2 |5 x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 A( w2 }) W  E* \- {) O) Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- j1 C; i, R& [: i6 z) kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 Y. h. s! Z- ?+ z9 `# b
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  b8 p" J+ @. @* Y2 fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ A8 q/ W7 Z8 f7 Y
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
7 o" E% d) p, j5 j& e
5 |. P" |5 t4 _- D" W$ k' LBeyond Greece7 X# G) w. N) l" C2 S) Y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 M6 D- u  ~- a7 ?" C
but that was before Italy.2 Y2 k' f- ?& I3 y( u: V+ c
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; ^1 w8 T# b- O3 ^2 n8 j5 C5 y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. Z+ u3 ]( ]1 {3 hItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( {' F3 [! p) T# d

! ~2 r6 q$ ~( b- k9 o" g$ }' @Conclusion: R9 G! |% @% F$ L/ Z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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