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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& i! t6 ~: {1 D3 m! Z
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Market Commentary2 \9 Q  ]* ]: y& s' k8 ~- v! _
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 p2 p* f% s4 T( MJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' k! Y& T7 u% b* x. ?7 [& ?
Signature Global Advisors! Y2 f9 v) c5 Y3 @8 I9 x
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Background remarks) E3 l5 a& A6 u
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: A+ T) p7 W% A7 r$ _2 o! y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." [' g& x, y: k$ b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 ?, n! h8 v4 k3 O- n. Uadjustments.5 B) G7 Q+ h9 C" U( \: i
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ P" z4 c& C. ?0 t/ z; [6 ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; Y; {5 ?6 z0 V1 l- e Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are- a" T6 g1 l0 B2 B/ b. H& _, }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% S5 T! Q, |0 ^3 e7 S4 {
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 z  d/ w" m: t, _adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.' s5 P: s% y% [; u- c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 h! n  d1 n- |, W
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 |. }. D2 k4 ^* t Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ R+ u- l8 P# e2 A! R: k4 v
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 u$ @9 x2 y2 U% Q# l# Z8 |
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 G: B; M  H1 E7 p' \1 u- O) ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" ?  Z4 [/ _# N$ }, |9 I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 v8 S- r& Q1 H6 v* ]! |& a4 |
impose liquidation values." a2 t& z* @8 J: v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! {; v% ?/ e% @; y5 z! w: h
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 ~0 x0 h/ h8 |5 ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" F6 J% c% q5 Q# V* M" hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 V; C; Q1 V, g2 Y# |A look at credit markets$ y$ i. r# {( n! `1 T* Q7 Y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ h: d$ l" S& Q) k2 {& X& K. aSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& ~- n* Q  _6 p" N
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& Q* y! E# P) s/ M- e& g0 i2 Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 B" u4 r, g9 e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# `+ r& Y. K+ z9 |access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( ?5 e, \$ i$ t; pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 o& @9 l4 n5 [5 e5 L. L( B- @7 b# x" Y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! v/ }# U' f1 p' w0 c. j
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# Y: v/ i/ M! V0 o" E5 f) @- k6 _4 [finding financing./ u0 t  S0 C  ?/ h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 e" n- C/ K0 z! H+ I/ a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* Y4 {( @) ?0 C& C! j" ~7 v9 C8 \ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 ?$ \. \( `2 n( w4 y; o& B, Ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% a- z3 m1 |6 F" O8 I; [. r2 Zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" c  a! u5 W/ B7 G; N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ J1 D- M. Q9 w1 s  K' k+ v
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" h1 _6 p+ r7 n) ?! ?today.( h& m  v  H" }. w" C2 a
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 k2 g- }) ?! x& n
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda& \& I7 l. Z" g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% F3 q- S  h, Q- N9 N, ]
the Greek default.1 p$ S9 z7 C# L
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  b4 A$ ~( Q& c9 E
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 J; z$ R3 L% I- V& M& Q% d2 ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. q: W% }0 E. f, E, K5 t) _: g
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 l" A2 {- D4 p- \- C7 n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: M4 B" o3 A$ S& k" k
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% h! r' \4 {9 Z  P! x- F7 y+ @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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2 f& ?- O. y- _; ~6 M6 Y, J5 \Beyond Greece0 A/ o% V2 [, u1 {3 x3 v% Y- M
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 f4 ]8 N/ X+ Y. \- |  ?) M5 ybut that was before Italy.
& Y0 u; d3 k2 \  U7 v2 g: I) p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 r) @; U& G9 F5 ?; ~8 B5 T- Y+ l It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 Y2 X6 c9 Q( b' M! o( q5 t  J
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
! R3 w  V6 w: X/ Q, q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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