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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 U) W$ Y) T; V% x
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Market Commentary+ P3 `5 A  e1 i1 Y+ m
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
2 b: h( F" `4 _% [/ F: P* F2 |1 cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 q3 F5 j$ l; A; \2 E& J  s+ NSignature Global Advisors% V7 r3 Z% t2 q2 @5 \

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* R+ w/ I. D; ?: m# XBackground remarks
5 @9 c# t4 y: ?% @6 K& ~- ?/ P Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 \' ~6 C% k8 tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; @8 O. ~; A8 z6 y$ G Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 S* P% _- ~+ U' L3 o) _
adjustments.
& {9 n% N/ I9 T This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social4 Y4 q# z: Y; w8 U
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( H3 T9 v4 v  n% V
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 U, H4 e+ f3 _8 C2 i% u# }6 P7 P
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 H1 }  i" m* k5 [& {# R" j& } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: n* ]! D5 J- k9 C% b( }, Zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 ~+ L+ u& X+ Q& C) o Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ ^1 ~/ U1 g; R4 F/ f( k2 k) h
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. c( p3 ^4 D0 J0 Z( Z( c Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% Z8 t' r. g! W7 L1 c- G% g2 W# R
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 r: P5 _  S2 w- w
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ @1 h, Y, h* h; }# ^! x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  h" e1 M' s# W* T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, K* r% B0 W0 G; f* @' p' P
impose liquidation values.
) u; A" u2 J) r1 I3 S% k2 k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' x1 Z! t8 [% E7 [' _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 h( k5 V9 {6 y0 S% J% V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" l4 k5 ?0 T$ b+ F
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets; G6 h' [6 Q9 Y9 V% A3 C
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ y& S" c8 U, m7 m  B6 |September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  c$ Z. B4 s. r, r5 C( a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( r) v" d, F( P* H
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 ~$ t8 y, t- j# P) Y$ w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ D9 d, g6 [/ {* Baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ x  q, v* T3 w' P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 A) t9 r2 d( z/ i
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. f. f1 A, f' K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, w4 H( D7 m% v0 z5 Hfinding financing.
: S& ^# `, M! X) b1 s0 K4 g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ e' R$ ?6 `6 C6 P# s7 v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. R3 z) d% A" ~( \, F% Y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  I  g  x: K% h' ~1 D( i' X8 uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ m5 m9 O0 C- Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 K- C. s5 T9 m% e+ k: J6 F* ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. Q& L8 \; i/ ]; x$ | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ Y& a4 i: q3 F9 |: {* h) R! q% f0 H
today.
, \5 n- ?& `) w9 W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. }4 J0 C  g. Y2 F9 {7 X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 t2 w0 @4 `& ~: X5 J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# _# c' w3 @' pthe Greek default.: E3 v/ M* o$ X1 t9 g
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 j) E( a& o$ Q2 V
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 K# X9 a' K( W* p# L2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
( P! z/ h9 _$ N8 l7 d4 h) jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 m5 b, N# @: m4 n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- C# w1 \  [) h7 y" G
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: `4 W* n) {: l
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece8 n, p5 b% y# M8 i$ O8 D
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' Z$ ~1 i7 m# y" O& s' zbut that was before Italy.# W2 V2 f% `) K
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ s+ ], s* `/ }# H It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 O8 H  {, }. A# a) F0 dItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.- ~' b  Q* g3 O8 X" r

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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