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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; X1 z2 X( q; \- `) x m4 w/ T1 N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: F8 X: U' {/ Z9 C
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 R4 {# G d1 s/ h; p2 {impose liquidation values.
D. Z& O' ]3 x. p+ Z3 [2 M In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ u. B% E& u2 i" P" k% b+ y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 n7 K" _$ U( a, r0 w J z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# Q2 ~3 F4 ? U. t: i
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ N) z5 D- m! _- t- ~4 q* O
" ~9 y3 O( X! i# ] GA look at credit markets, m: e1 s$ M* E% \1 {6 X
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. p* Q% y; O9 i8 \1 k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. h$ x# T& C' l& k3 I4 j/ P
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% B ]/ D8 P1 x% [then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, ]; k4 o. p+ Q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 j; |4 a' ?( h) `6 v3 V% g+ H- f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 B0 E$ W2 }1 P* ?; _CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ a1 C2 T' z) o l: Opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ @2 _4 [5 s0 E! [; \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: i4 e- K1 _, N5 b& \! b% i3 U3 f
finding financing.& F* ~1 O# q0 g; [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* g9 _! d1 O( @6 \5 lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 o! V6 Q. q6 a& d; p" v2 u$ |% I Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. q3 O, x5 W3 d/ Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ v9 ]. ]; E& z1 C( P; q; Vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ {. g1 `! m8 x) Q" w: rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) h- V( ~4 C) g& f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( U! c, @3 h E# Ltoday.
0 _- [; q" O/ _/ H2 w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, k' b) u% H' T
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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