 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation9 H; h; n% N1 J2 n$ J
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# h1 H" a+ m1 K/ J& q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 }8 A* {7 M4 _* O! W
impose liquidation values., Z9 D5 ]. h5 ?
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; C- {* R' l7 v$ [
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' Q3 K6 G- j. ^$ o' v* `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 q/ b }& v* N/ x! j1 J3 N, R! _/ b
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 ~8 j% a$ i6 p
- k# C6 m/ a3 Y1 O& t" N: a' EA look at credit markets
+ l' \9 C; p3 y# b2 R* R Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 J# I2 F" K8 qSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# x# I) Q' _) k; a/ @ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 k X( ?( j! Z4 _6 b) d" uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1 q& p& p6 `& p* G5 } [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. u2 j! ^! S4 f& q6 p, e* b# o
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. O# e* r# ~6 q$ N9 k+ |. t8 D5 DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* n% J: K5 z! [( Z; V6 ?
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& w# @7 u7 M, x
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ Y) d) F; z6 H7 m8 `+ ~& ^5 Cfinding financing.
& Y& T$ B- A) f9 e( z. O; V Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) A% J# o+ f! P' Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& n+ |$ T1 C* Z6 f! `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! R9 c9 s2 E. b! F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" ~, Q1 c4 ?! Egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for |* H2 v" G0 u: s1 ]" j" ? _
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# g8 |) V# | G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 o! o8 y9 q+ H# v7 Z3 @2 P' U4 R' d
today.
+ C: y' [6 `7 u8 p! p7 W- s Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- [. b: r7 ~- l- e3 T) o7 c8 Oemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|