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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 m' R. N! S  \' dMarket Commentary
1 C6 \- G# L2 p# C! D- xEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ a+ O1 v  H1 F% w' ?James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 {  F8 n8 o5 r6 S0 bSignature Global Advisors
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! w" k* k# o% O+ p2 y  x/ ~9 h! _1 y2 U" N& W* Z
Background remarks" J* `5 L1 X* N6 [, w5 O( z" }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ u- q) F- l  X; |; U8 s: C7 y. q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 E! K0 n4 A& \- ^  v' S& d Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# u( g& P  n  U& `, C4 M) ~' radjustments.$ ~, C  s/ ]2 {7 q6 D, T( W9 ]: _2 U
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' {; k, @& ]: m( t- O) R3 x+ }
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) `# O7 t2 M7 J, p( M  H
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 l2 Z- m- t% {* c! }% \lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
7 L3 y$ S$ B/ V7 } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; H" {$ l7 p+ q/ @) M' hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 [: L  X3 }4 I" q4 U1 P
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
1 O/ n9 \! x; ]1 _4 H) [, Vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." f9 L& Z4 y' j3 |) d! ]
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. i( A+ W# D# ?7 O" @, |) B
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 m, ?+ P- D$ o* I' L. t# w8 lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- v' l  R7 ]8 }& S( w; _1 G4 { The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' A5 D6 W2 V9 a* d! r3 aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' @% Y2 R6 F: v& i3 H. g# F  U
impose liquidation values.  N6 o$ e% T% P5 a, g) E
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ O1 _" A. o6 X# W
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: p6 R( @% _' F% }
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 Q$ a' o( n% Z: u- h5 J8 W$ sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 p6 _7 w6 J3 Y

+ L/ J: ?0 [$ V. `' E& N8 oA look at credit markets9 G/ ]- G/ T2 ^( U
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ R* `' d- b4 j8 {2 q$ qSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." \. R8 z8 A1 p: P
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) P3 m5 o& A$ e- w- E
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 p  Q7 {) l: U8 Z: k
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# w9 ?/ C8 h6 n9 zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ ^. G' @4 Y" E9 @2 Z5 NCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 L  I9 o8 ]3 ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 `# j5 W  q7 N* N Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 n8 n7 C- _5 f
finding financing.
5 z9 t5 l& C8 W6 W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ x" b/ Z0 P" Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" q; }* \" |# P Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' ~( O8 T1 [2 Y: h+ i* I/ y2 C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 \! \9 K1 X1 w; w( T
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 R& a& g, {: Z
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  v" g  _' j& j, i  a9 N
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* h& c# {, c2 d7 k+ V& r6 y
today.
! C6 c( ]7 O6 S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# s* h' s1 E+ H' q3 \0 Y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 H. }: Q6 @. [+ j. ]0 z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' T; h9 f1 u9 j
the Greek default.
- U! h# y9 i8 \$ O+ W. b3 ]6 {* ?4 @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ o- e  e% f  @; N* d* A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 X9 ]1 Y) i  y# ^: Y& {/ p+ [2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' P- k( ~6 o- N# B% d8 cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 n2 D6 w- a9 T  n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
0 h- _& Q8 r9 Q; a, x* J6 z& p' X7 vbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- m+ n0 u3 g; D" `
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
6 r6 s' n& v  a8 I6 h7 a& K' D; `) Q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* [! ?+ @% M5 p& H: A! Tbut that was before Italy., v0 Y7 {4 O, S" J4 H) H( r
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: o7 G2 q  }7 I' n6 \3 k
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 b$ @4 h& h3 ^: l5 [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 {+ Y  s6 C& c

& C! R" x# d6 s/ K7 ~! v! GConclusion
) ]7 d8 O+ d# }) j( q5 F6 n6 [ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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