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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
; F+ ^8 {6 R5 Z. Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# V; R- F3 g8 ]% u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& n1 t6 A4 M' ~+ J) c* a q, b
impose liquidation values.+ n0 {! X- ~6 k/ D& k3 N; @
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- E8 [: {( t3 y1 S- E
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., ]/ u" h- b, y l
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ u9 E7 U# b/ o _
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ p/ k5 v3 t' a$ B- \3 `
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A look at credit markets! z( g, F6 M- K; Q, P
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ z7 o& b) B5 |0 q9 DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# k, w8 U) W+ e4 r) s1 F+ M
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 @7 e/ |7 A; h* A
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 I5 |+ f) ] J2 C& M- `" T9 v7 Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 p* |7 |3 G6 N: V! e3 @: ^$ Kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade H2 n( ?7 P4 L
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' e: Z8 z2 B/ Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* U1 a4 J6 ?( |5 {9 p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 I* }- {8 Y( V
finding financing.+ l( G9 B- b$ `: B; L b9 M
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) @1 A, o" t* g( x! q* ?
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: T: T* o- i/ x% q( c
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 J' W+ w& q; b' `6 mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* K$ o* U, H6 V+ {( a
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 r6 _1 `3 o4 O: C# Y7 t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" t, k" m8 a& t! w, X2 z9 d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- M8 ^# b) |4 j6 g9 ?today.$ N3 ~* }. ~ n% ~2 k }
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* D1 E4 o0 M& X. F9 r Demerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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