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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
5 x; P' N- W5 EEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. r4 _. J; y& UJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 I0 g2 X4 Q1 Z* C% \3 CSignature Global Advisors
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' i- B, [/ |' B( q0 x% u6 u8 CBackground remarks$ z- I' z/ S% @' r- d" f! l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: c! ]" s+ A( J6 m6 }6 A
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ ?) H. }" J) F3 i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  D9 |, J3 x, \$ G2 g0 Q7 U
adjustments.# ^  ]4 _6 q7 N6 ]
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% B! f$ M1 a4 s2 p% e# r5 z
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 `( L) G: ?6 G5 f Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 z' r7 b) K' X' |6 c9 xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 E* L2 R; c9 u; H We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 @6 P) h! m4 [
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! R6 b/ i* B* J. O! X! Z( g3 ^
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
9 X% N7 R# r6 ^7 Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 Q6 ?0 `% i0 H- W  M Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( k6 I1 ?1 h' t8 v2 T
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 |: k, Z3 w& j9 J! L! B, \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  r  e0 |3 s( t9 W" O  U4 t
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 M% }$ ?6 `4 G& c7 ^0 x3 N, jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% z( f; j' V- i5 r) F( Ximpose liquidation values.! \( q! s4 T4 L1 N' ~- v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 [5 h/ U/ X+ k+ y. {: W, @" n+ I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 C( o8 S) r  e/ U! _6 C7 i/ { The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  g  Q- G4 r3 y) W+ w+ K
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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) J/ }1 N& y0 a$ y! wA look at credit markets
3 a( F2 L! B0 A7 f# I* H% x& I Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
" x9 S4 y# Z. e1 @* FSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 h9 n: U5 e- j# k/ ~& M: j: V4 s
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# v0 t5 D6 |) b* T" C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, a" h& F* N4 W5 e  v
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# e6 n2 _  f( c/ Z$ g7 k! ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& t: h2 `$ e# J$ ]
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 N6 P6 i7 `" n0 @* N6 u; y! bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# p. m) a5 ?& W2 P2 A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 s4 ~. X4 B1 [& H; Wfinding financing.
+ r: {- s6 u6 u5 X3 g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 K6 z, j* z6 z! F" H# X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 u4 b3 y& V: T0 \0 w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 z# c% t! V+ r8 E# c* T4 `3 V: H
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 T$ h1 h* j3 Y) E9 T
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. v" {5 O& {$ L, K& l' ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' v* ?2 J6 \3 f/ E: ]# b5 S European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: c; |' b2 E  P# gtoday.
1 x. o$ U4 B5 @3 N2 T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. R* N7 \. d" r2 ]) h
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- ]; S6 a; b# g6 P6 b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for" K& U( `) B7 J
the Greek default.6 f% {- N0 K1 j, ]( W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
; |! T% [8 s/ r6 {6 v& J1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' t. @1 O' `6 c8 l# K; V, G2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ ?5 _; t- u1 ?; qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.. {& |& Y; m; C# B3 S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ A) x% M! }" I  G- bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 g6 T$ N7 b1 o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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7 |6 h2 t/ ^% M3 p, q  TBeyond Greece; `9 z( S7 s) z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. e4 _$ U7 u2 b3 x( ~/ q
but that was before Italy.
0 X/ N# z0 o* t' F) Q, m! p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- ?2 U2 _0 `. t' Y" y8 [
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ O, `/ n3 J; b. iItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
" d+ a2 a6 Y( v. H% p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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