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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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/ W% \( m0 g' z% k/ `: e7 n# jMarket Commentary
1 Z: R) ]" b8 M) y0 j+ `% R' V3 HEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- i8 C( Y: Y7 Z2 a
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 {7 q' C3 y  W* l4 a) ]. ^2 L: kSignature Global Advisors2 v( v1 n* S+ B$ d1 R/ K9 o0 I" j
: A  w. P; y) O" I& g/ z5 a5 i/ w1 }
, p$ s. {/ Y3 ^9 J. Q4 J; j
Background remarks
5 D) o+ M3 O$ l& `8 z+ f8 L0 v  R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! i, O( B% s8 Q; F7 L* J
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  Q: E& t, V0 f: N Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* t' c+ @7 x. i
adjustments.
" w- Q  Y* K; [* M This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) O3 _/ @1 G) U- b7 u. |1 |' m
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 R1 s2 i. b' F7 W) V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( l9 V' P7 A/ rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 B6 S* U- y+ I We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) `  v2 E8 m! o' d+ K9 t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ e) E* S5 Y4 y4 ^8 i8 K* t1 [
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 m, B' x/ _7 g1 [! ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 T  ~* `! G9 j# W5 r. v
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) j3 e3 [1 E3 ^/ {! J8 d Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 G$ q- h8 R* P9 T- e& y6 r$ ^
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 E0 \* ?% C3 m The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 M- J! c+ R  F& L" f9 q" Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& V3 N5 _- v- D! g8 kimpose liquidation values.
4 j7 {* ?+ c( C* |1 ^1 ~' |3 C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 q8 Q, P6 t/ F. t& o0 mAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 q2 @4 L* Z/ C4 J8 I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% ]6 O+ ], [0 O/ G
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
+ u. w$ [6 F# M7 `* l* Y  g
5 X8 l, @8 z. p3 ]4 H  Q( lA look at credit markets+ x- X. ~1 y3 r5 P
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 _- B2 N5 ?2 ?7 W: [% \& t1 K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 ?* w6 z6 p3 l  ?4 x
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# r4 }' \# N9 e$ fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! i& L: U! x) S& a7 V# c% F6 i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; n9 x" q+ C. P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 f5 N! u& ~! RCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 X' C- o8 |6 u  e3 _
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 ^& Z/ D6 Y/ `
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* o0 ^4 M8 J4 i' p! X
finding financing., |7 T, V- s% j" s  w
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 b& j2 r0 ~$ w' k  E2 Y* O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., c8 v+ o- R9 E' }! T% @' w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 K( U4 ?7 M9 C" kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  A. J5 {: w1 O5 t8 q- ?2 ^8 g% p
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 E% c2 `, o- [
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  _3 K  {% M! k" a
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" Q* H/ x# @' X- O4 Vtoday.
$ F4 A# L! [; y1 C" U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: G6 k+ D& W, t2 R$ @
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 O# h+ y9 Q1 m4 m2 D Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ f$ H2 H5 ~2 {
the Greek default.
8 ^. ?$ U; x# |5 g! w1 V As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 [3 d" m$ v, [, |# n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& F% E/ b0 D' q* I6 Y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 x6 X! U3 X$ j0 l/ u" l9 L+ i
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  E' R( Z( i6 o3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ r& D/ g, o8 ?( rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; {# [; o4 H9 G' T: {! {4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; m' D5 |/ x  w6 @" @) L

/ p% M( X, @8 e" w: s8 v# IBeyond Greece
3 y/ C; P' s# A. a0 S The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 T  i- J& g! |
but that was before Italy.& q. m% R* _4 n
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( N+ |- p: d9 m& Q1 g& D! s4 T
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ y+ v7 z1 E+ Z: B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; I* D1 [7 F% V. l" i$ ~/ D

3 Y0 s5 b) M" E3 N; \Conclusion) V  B; ?( G4 f* @# F! v( ~- r
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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