市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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4 n7 }3 ]9 d8 E( y3 S3 y, TMarket Commentary
- A. ?4 ^6 b1 S. U7 REric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 f! W6 Y4 t! L) t- l# i2 VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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/ `+ V5 L. u9 \6 Z* Y; I6 HBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
) M3 b# j  R2 I- g8 Das much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# p  F( N6 V7 O8 | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" X% a' s6 m/ G' n1 |1 n- H2 _( Iadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' ?$ q: T- v+ F# A) B' osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: j$ T' }' D& I# [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# D9 o! \) I  g8 ~/ o3 r- l) Z Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 b( m- q+ K% B0 W Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# L* v# {9 |) {2 K% u: b3 H% Oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
6 Z6 G2 F$ j1 k+ y: o/ Y1 P The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 [# p5 Q' ^  i/ ?as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& p  G2 n4 S1 y# I. z# vimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# G$ w0 d4 ?6 _% I+ U9 M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' z" n; b2 b0 o' E5 |( \8 t! mA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- L# a/ }/ ~) P. v( m% U$ I: K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 z6 t7 K/ e+ Q8 o) \- V$ nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. f" U. W+ j$ k  ?; _7 L Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
' P/ h7 z% J4 { Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. f/ W# Q3 r0 |; T9 hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# A' B/ L$ t4 O% X* D, X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 d3 Y* T  H2 W% `1 Q! ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 N. ~. ^; _! l1 S  `6 `bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' P7 Q" F4 F2 m- d$ D% J1 Xtoday.
, E/ d7 L; e' f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 c" y. s- W$ Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
+ m  L6 Z" U+ [3 l8 ^ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% k3 v4 O- x& r' H" k+ m1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: g' R# b: _) @9 _) {" T2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 F! m- \' J/ ]* x6 mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# r6 ~! f2 z; {5 j; S$ W1 \banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, T1 t. o' |7 H0 E1 g4 N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
8 N9 T& c0 z" Q. { The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 }$ N5 ?* T2 S: z  O. ?/ F* d/ z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ p# `% r/ D" s2 ]5 u' ]. X! A2 K/ oItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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1 _6 e# G) j# p1 j( G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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