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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
+ N! E" d( G9 k) ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 @0 P0 K: ^+ j& M Q1 X% uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# [5 |1 i& n2 e' r+ eimpose liquidation values./ ~/ @9 L ^/ R$ w5 L% p" m8 F
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 v/ U6 u; J9 c0 [- hAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 ] h# S8 H; |+ P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 V5 T3 d: H# \; G; X' Escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." a7 N% O8 t# B0 C+ }
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A look at credit markets8 I2 n+ B" Z/ y! @% o+ j" |- \& b
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: b# `# e9 I* f7 y+ nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
W' M$ B' v+ o/ k3 _7 _: V. N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" I3 G0 _) k% ~) q* [+ M% qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 ?' i3 V3 Z) S( I/ R2 F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 N: { { Z6 i/ w" t, Y2 haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 i( B" y, _; j9 |7 x' [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 N0 l) K' ^: I1 h1 Spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ M, r- U( T% G% d: W% c1 @4 m! R9 \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 d3 U6 Y1 U% r
finding financing.
4 H0 X6 r0 i% @' k; | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* I# h- P$ f; p9 \, a% L6 vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 G8 F; V8 X3 T0 E# W( ?
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ O, E0 c; ]. Q3 v" N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 u9 n3 ^( U; b5 s" I
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* y ~4 W- n4 u' f9 t% P. ?( c& bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& i. g- A4 N4 v( k6 H' n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 \/ \. S9 c( e7 s! [0 k; w2 Z; |today.
( ]7 U- J2 n( y! f# d* V7 [3 Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in B G1 y7 D- p* j& \
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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