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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
) v6 `3 L2 N6 e& E' J( r8 A! t8 l+ S; REric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 ^: O, K: U6 E) G2 p8 Y6 SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! M8 W0 c4 S8 I# S; g
Signature Global Advisors
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6 }+ T( X$ w* P* m" {5 z# pBackground remarks
% W* |& B0 ?! x9 d1 K, B. Q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 P" U7 v' y0 G$ y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.8 F9 b2 a$ N3 n  G* ?
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 r! T8 L& ]0 \. m7 T
adjustments.
" t  r& D9 t/ i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 ?' B3 g# I% P" k
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 H) u. `2 e1 w2 ?/ ]8 c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% x$ t9 P. O4 F& `6 `
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 y6 k3 U% y5 U+ g. T( F3 Q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, V! O: t' h& Y& m( ~' j8 {; [
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ D' B0 `; Q! E2 U6 x Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 t  b9 Q5 m, M0 s# E
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. k. ]; b$ X. O# q9 H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) Z" X/ y: H! C! l& X7 _ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 C; f3 l! u) N9 A, ?+ o  z$ V
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 h7 J. G5 o0 v* y' s& D% I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 |8 E" l1 D. \1 Z  u( Z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 Z1 `* g: k2 l( n5 J
impose liquidation values.' ]& `' W1 }+ F. l% K2 Z8 }, ~
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 B6 u# O7 H+ A, o. \/ y' g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( \6 Z5 G& F( l5 I3 o The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  J, A3 g% ?$ Y8 Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( L& V3 H7 s4 Y$ _: @

, m& P# i* Y! u$ w: ?6 y$ AA look at credit markets. k$ N2 j6 u4 Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" U, o) Y% B! n& K7 h, L" E- h3 e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 _. W" Y! |8 V4 {+ a* a' V High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 D9 ]* P5 M. Q" e9 j( j$ f( S5 Z8 z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& ~; o; R+ a& |* }% H" j/ Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* L. G. Z' v1 n8 Z" Z. E9 ]0 a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" q: r4 E; u) fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ Y8 d3 K7 H1 l- h
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, X  g( b2 y7 S  q! i Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ L* O# q1 g6 e& |; x* W# B/ Jfinding financing.2 x5 `. u( z! {, |/ u* m7 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' ~* d& R1 V: d9 v& q4 a9 |& wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' x% H# K) m7 u0 i9 N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 d; t3 r' l' t  c" W" H5 Bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% ~8 @" Z, Z( l" E1 e" |+ Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% d# Y3 R+ Y& k8 o
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* d$ i" @" I& F) t/ w' ~! O: b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% q  O9 P2 D& O/ B3 M
today.7 R! k# e/ }8 C+ ?" |8 j( Y6 V0 v7 ]5 l
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# g" ?  K# Y9 n) g1 `
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) m7 v; o& v+ ~1 n% |( N5 u+ u
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 S0 F0 _' G& g9 K( u3 S# r- X1 M# G
the Greek default.% v8 u# c# h" D
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 o- {1 q5 \- Z7 d% w, Q% ^4 f3 X1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 J, u0 @5 c) v+ I/ N2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 g+ @* h/ c% s3 kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ m4 H- T8 S8 m) z* l- D4 P5 A* i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" g5 y, @1 z) T% w, G. @banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 b# c  s8 v$ U- O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 g4 S: b: X- I

5 `$ v3 R; ~/ W1 N6 OBeyond Greece2 I! X5 g' q3 J5 R. b( s
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ W$ H# ^6 ~3 \% I. u* w: c
but that was before Italy.3 D/ Y+ y( Z5 z7 R$ w) A5 x1 F' T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- a, `& Z$ K2 g" \2 N- @, h
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& ?$ z8 R, o: v' v* n- Y: C% ?5 B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 z1 @0 F6 I: g$ q3 e
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Conclusion
! Y+ @8 a* o0 L$ U We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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