 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation( J9 G4 i7 u! i" W2 {; Q0 {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( Y' b4 m, D) q( eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" t& s$ [: Z4 d; s% `
impose liquidation values.+ y) @3 B9 r5 O2 b% b% v A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- b7 z/ E" r- d0 |8 i, _( V8 q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." a h. S8 w- }2 B, l" j! g
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 i) _; f' j. c/ D, Q; O
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
& j! ]. h- ^6 T( C7 a6 P/ _3 L
, B" J; S; q/ V7 k$ {8 @A look at credit markets
+ K% t* |! |, T' R& u Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 v: |( d- I( \% x
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 w" W4 h4 L- ^& o5 M High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& [5 s' o7 a( ^
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 w1 U' t: |* i8 B, \7 l1 ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ {( a9 z! Y$ T; \; p$ L$ J/ ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
X" T9 m3 l! d2 c# nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 `" e {) N( `1 T. rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. G( C5 G3 Q @7 p1 E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 T" G' X0 \: m! ifinding financing.5 I% |( W `# l; p$ U/ o2 J( N8 F' w
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: _# y: j0 j) \8 U0 V9 ~
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 o) u1 V! b1 k4 n1 w Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ X8 d- y% _8 M' _is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) [+ J/ D7 p8 G. V. z$ |7 h
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* i3 O1 v+ }8 V" _ F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. e% L7 j. V3 A# d3 _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
L$ y# g8 |9 i# k: l9 Jtoday.$ u% {7 b5 N! S# \+ j7 e
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: | A! o$ x7 }- h8 G# }# g+ t
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|