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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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5 q) W$ g) A+ i5 `8 x5 A% VMarket Commentary- ~/ d; G6 u% u* u9 J. n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 C& W9 g2 N. r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: Z: w$ g& S0 y; n; pSignature Global Advisors' J" e: \6 j8 d6 {6 C: t2 j
4 Z5 r, `: u/ [5 H
1 k# Z  @3 V3 i5 t* \0 F4 l  W# {
Background remarks
) q1 ~0 ^0 m0 c: p  l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  K1 w4 ~3 L- X+ L/ Qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' U2 N$ L) V7 M3 ?& r/ p Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 B! U9 w& u# r# d% }! oadjustments.$ _4 x, X" w+ d' b: d' h! T
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  z1 c# |8 H  W- D- P( bsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.2 ?/ {: F* v9 ?, x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% ^/ S- K5 Y3 t* Olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: T& n5 p* w% J+ D9 O; A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ `# h0 C( z7 @* r) K* ~1 d+ ]7 W- `
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 b# L! K/ q0 l4 ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- O3 R+ I0 G* b2 xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ X/ A1 M$ m: X, n
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 W; \8 M  P: r0 q% q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; {, _4 c, W, u& y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ `& i: ~5 a7 Z1 L+ x6 h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# m% s3 C0 w$ j* D; f+ `; ]as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# J( ~0 Y  g. L+ u7 u% Y- j3 timpose liquidation values.
" k  \( m/ w" Y$ |7 w, Q  z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- N: ~; `: V- v; t, p. r; c: ?- ]3 IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: S- ^  T. [, U( t
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* T1 F7 ^6 b, N6 Y" `) k" D; Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ N3 g  G% K" l/ u/ d& l; Y4 R( M
3 M, A4 e  i- y, c9 @
A look at credit markets) q9 {$ Y$ }0 S6 F- g, T1 F
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* _" }- J. J' }. u6 ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 s( H, E. H% o
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 g" K7 R/ b3 e7 _: ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ Y! S+ L2 z% M! T( S6 i" w  }billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; W8 |2 k; S0 Raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 k3 F  ]% F) V$ X- Z( z5 W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ I& s, G3 [7 q& T
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ `; N" b6 R  G+ o2 m
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 n) B& c2 _. s: \- G
finding financing.
( T* ^; g1 g3 |- ]" x- O Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they  R  E* F! A4 x  X$ f
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 o0 ?; X+ [3 s; \! f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 j1 t6 K1 z4 H; c  M9 X" dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& t0 ]  E6 b7 V8 P% q  X" ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; q) ^, I1 O, Z+ w! nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* O2 p# y' x# }" y+ q- v- F European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% e/ H3 _. R/ [8 o4 a0 ^
today.
7 ?6 \8 G, i6 N; a4 {. L  c Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 |, j* e' f2 ~7 Kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 S" w6 C4 i1 j- _+ H( W% ^- `4 C  k2 y8 Z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ I( B! K- M% J
the Greek default.) {4 a2 j$ I1 h* V+ t- \
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 `& K) S6 {8 P$ M) n6 C! b1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( k" {* g: X5 j: F9 N9 B9 l
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  v" Z, ^" m* [3 ^
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ {% M9 T( C1 N1 i4 k2 Y7 t3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( b- f8 Z, }: H( c6 L+ B0 w. ]/ B
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 O% _) L  x9 T2 X. ~" x" {
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: ?- E( E2 c! r, b/ ?" j) U

9 p% a! @* l$ o! j% M9 tBeyond Greece% t. J8 Z! g0 ^2 q& ~4 M: h
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! M: e# y0 d+ a2 E  ?& t0 s/ Mbut that was before Italy.
9 C/ d: I. B$ I0 P3 [6 i! n It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) I% F# y7 C3 _/ Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- `3 y* T( ?; @) `; T8 C. C
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% F# x6 {# Z. g$ }

* v3 y3 ^1 K! s; @Conclusion% T4 t/ F' A3 r' a- A
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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