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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# g8 D! a4 ]- k: R6 u) k$ E6 z

! |7 T3 G6 T1 S! y* x& q0 ~" {Market Commentary
5 o  L: W: G6 v- E/ n' ?/ qEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& R5 [" a$ c1 A5 R/ {. |: `3 lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# z$ I+ t: o3 T/ j+ s; ]
Signature Global Advisors
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% M9 M4 J9 P! G% x8 B* g4 p9 c7 i
Background remarks
$ w! c! J' Q9 b* F2 y6 Y6 I  S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# ], _( N/ J. K% z9 Bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) l) E! K7 c% g" Z8 T& |$ } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 C; H( `: m0 |
adjustments.2 _/ \0 j& C" X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# Z+ Z) \, j+ A' y/ q7 esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ L  \& ^6 K$ E6 l4 M1 p Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) @' l, [" u  F2 U6 O
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: C$ ?# \8 ~9 @1 ~6 `9 u8 k
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 B7 N) k- R' m( A( k9 r, |5 Eadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
4 d  ~6 _2 M6 }: |, @ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; I2 O5 M" Q9 J) ^" m5 T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 `7 G' T0 A: D" T: v Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 z* `% K$ k' m1 E1 U' \( K Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ I4 z5 ~$ \6 W; @reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 a* M- @5 G* ]- u+ w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 T2 T& x: J) L3 q# _$ V( n6 m0 a7 ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 l0 U! Y; x; Nimpose liquidation values.& n( [- n" N0 h7 U/ m# p: \4 L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 C: b3 z2 I9 TAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. L/ a1 j- Q3 m  w: r% y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) n( v+ M) @) _: S; ?
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# b; f0 a, b7 \* j$ V

" S$ b3 q- z8 D/ Z1 LA look at credit markets
1 V! H2 @7 A, V3 ]0 j; Q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) R0 h  L* R4 _4 Z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# @  h  u( a4 U. g! S1 l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! i1 F6 L; m  N7 l. {$ B6 h
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) n' u& C5 G! i" j1 p# R3 g1 w! n
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ [' m  w4 h9 ^" b8 Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( S# B5 o$ C4 D) s" Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 N1 e& S; b4 h( [) M7 o( G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 N" N9 ^$ e( _
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" L! O+ q* @2 Z/ v! n
finding financing.
  R2 F! Q: t( V  R$ b/ J Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 I& }0 Q- F+ o' S# v6 K
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ r7 T0 H8 @+ B( a Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 B" v; A4 I9 G" C1 bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 `) z+ k6 D- ~1 E0 e# d; Z0 |going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" X* P; h8 u0 Y9 ?0 e/ n: O  y$ ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& N! n7 a5 j6 w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" L, P2 Q* H& _3 h: P: g! z# Btoday.
+ e7 L1 c7 @7 R. P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 s" h' M% S, e# `emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& u! M" ]: K- z6 O; q' O Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ @" Y; d8 [' ^6 e. s1 Tthe Greek default.. C, k. ?- B% {; B3 u( P
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 f$ X8 d( R0 G4 I) D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# r) F; _9 D" Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* f2 m, Z* m, N2 g* z
debt stabilization, needs government approvals., ^8 N  u1 s3 b' i* ]* q* o" Y
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. C  }7 O0 |' {: |# ~2 r$ Cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ _. q( V7 b9 |4 s4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: ]+ R3 J+ Y5 R8 ]
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Beyond Greece4 F. A8 g( K" {3 {5 O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 S) ]6 e2 R1 i# y
but that was before Italy.
0 V- O  W6 c' ~( X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# _! Y# b" {5 y/ [+ S& v It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& m1 E9 M: {* \  c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion, W4 H: W- U  {$ t9 X
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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