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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
: e( L8 S& ]$ N8 H The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 f4 H2 b9 w% T$ T0 T7 Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: e. t$ P l" R0 ? a; N" p" @
impose liquidation values. ^# X# r o8 g+ c
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) Y$ m {/ l( ?" {% I" ]
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 k) e- ~) i3 J, E% h: S The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 r: C6 ]4 x. |: ~scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
0 B D) ~; m; u& w
: ~) a% \6 N, f& r) t$ s, T! nA look at credit markets
* ?6 D: c( D0 G) b6 L3 Q& n& R Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ L) N$ }' {- C) V5 vSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ N6 @% k: }4 _1 D! l$ T8 G
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: x) W3 U0 R1 y$ n5 |: ]5 r
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& D0 a4 d; v& _ pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ P- d# i+ h) `! J: S a6 [0 Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 g. E6 c' W/ I6 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! ~/ i+ Y! g. |
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ z5 s5 |6 y# Q5 Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 e+ s0 Z, y6 D; Cfinding financing.- j I7 e+ u$ Y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. l5 {7 A- l2 _- ? N" F) a! N
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# N- d% y. s }: w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 x& Q2 H: G8 g( V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 @" t+ e: R0 Rgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 }" D) s% z$ z$ v. a/ |, @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; D9 c. ~! {! \4 A* v. g. {/ p
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' @3 P3 ^- I- k- l8 C( E4 ^8 M4 S7 ntoday.( v' W; H7 ^3 b4 D( X A
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ [ @- K$ N' }3 Nemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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