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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 i6 j) s# n9 q( p
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Market Commentary
" l4 `: W& r) Z- NEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 i; n/ v1 D, F; m5 C4 aJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
* ?( y$ i2 @& c& HSignature Global Advisors# P: p* B; _# ^  t4 R4 \$ o
4 K# i6 H1 r/ ^) P6 w! [! ]

5 N/ R$ m( ?- [& A6 S) oBackground remarks, G  `' P( ], A: g. m* L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 p& k7 B6 k& k. \6 p1 `. n
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." C0 C; _+ g6 \! u
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) A: u5 r( w6 ~. \* }' V: V+ {2 o
adjustments.2 S- W% I) N4 o0 z- I* U9 i
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 p" R* ^! }) O- n' x, {1 X" Q- Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 M. D& X8 `% t$ n Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 C* j$ d4 E6 {7 O1 Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' {( M9 O' X1 l4 R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ \# b* L' T% y7 C( Qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) F: s8 v& F7 ^5 l8 y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: p0 |6 d/ [7 A2 y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 b9 N& _, l# T$ O4 j" T1 A. C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.4 g- ]. K, A$ |6 ^9 [: \
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, N  y% x3 e) a" [/ ^+ `reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 h! s/ u4 L, W" | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 w" {, p2 M7 R1 ^: W9 `; p" d
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! w8 q' C! F; V% Z0 l8 B
impose liquidation values.
1 A  ]' H- ?( ?2 M5 q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 Z4 L6 @4 q. e/ \. ^9 O
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- }5 k7 l0 }- u; `/ |' e! I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* o3 l1 U7 }: c# J7 z7 s
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; T6 a7 l- a" I  W; }
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A look at credit markets
! \; G; B/ T! X Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, S! _; P+ K1 v) ^# FSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 {& ~: T7 {! N, v- _0 F9 r+ R; H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
9 Q- t. X0 x! _7 u) \0 cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ Z8 F' M% Z+ ~+ P
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 V0 j* @  C8 i/ I* faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) H2 \! B' T' P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. @  N/ ?1 h8 g; ~- ?/ V; U, p
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ [3 s1 L# q) g! I2 `
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 \% k$ ?* z7 q1 ^; u
finding financing.
0 \0 m% @$ ^* w* z4 z# B. G0 [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 E( _$ `) q, i* u3 M: ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 E6 n2 \) l$ |' |+ S% e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. Y5 @+ C" g6 qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; ?+ k4 ]! e7 v, y# k+ J9 ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: F1 O  _( ]% Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. b$ b% t* H9 [* Q8 O, ?& t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# s4 |* K7 H9 b/ Y: T$ |) [today.& `2 {% L; R4 j% w  g9 R
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in0 T) z0 o8 {; n" K8 a& A
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' N5 {8 J4 F& o4 Z' z8 {' { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 E; c6 K$ e  h4 s% hthe Greek default.
, D% o1 U% o, l* o As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 Z$ o/ ^# u4 E2 K' O1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& v% F) R( ^2 G0 c: Z  i
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 m( b; @6 I" s+ z# Q% E: E9 S- x" d: qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# H. P' {$ }% w3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing" E$ U0 W+ E2 S) z3 o
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' K2 T% J, B+ i0 t) Z4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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! o, X1 c2 g2 p3 M% k7 ABeyond Greece
# Z& R' T9 V% Q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! H. Q, W# _. n% x2 k
but that was before Italy.2 K4 K8 t2 h+ O0 W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: W8 ^( [/ C! \9 O- p. j
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 F* `) I, A( Q; [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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