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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 F6 K1 n' S- c* `/ o

/ |. k, }' R# _6 c% V: XMarket Commentary2 _# o# n, e2 `  x* j, L
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" r$ j- s7 i4 ]  LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
5 l1 u# K, ^; a' r+ d, pSignature Global Advisors
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6 V0 a3 X, I  E8 Y% y, }; b( [5 U; G4 H* O/ c
Background remarks
: _3 D+ o; y3 h4 Z9 O Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  L8 N: b5 K4 U5 bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 I0 x/ S/ O$ `
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% M* g4 y/ S& m4 I) m5 {) M+ k
adjustments.
3 b6 d/ i0 N$ o9 t This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 Z! B5 J( G7 S3 R$ ^3 g( j4 Y$ N8 s
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% `" v+ i3 m$ H0 F% r4 Q2 J Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are/ n/ Z5 H, }: L; f9 T* Y6 V' e
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 P) }7 }. G* Q4 s1 Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 X. C0 @$ v1 W0 g1 V5 s6 Fadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& Z! Q+ B5 R6 b0 d6 }- _) w& x2 U
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ p+ Y. A3 T. ^  V- Q0 Yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& u2 d) r: n% k  E9 Y1 h
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 P3 J) R9 B/ Z7 W$ Z0 R
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. S( _! R( z5 A4 Kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ E3 b* c) N" ~' Y8 _& V4 J% U
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 ^9 A+ p5 v* z$ [$ w% V' s
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- o& B+ I) y+ s! N8 \
impose liquidation values.
) P8 M" g  o. W3 \2 o In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# g4 K2 x2 q$ [; E) Y( w: P+ C3 T
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# n" t7 H% I. @
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 b: S: W" P2 b! @' ~3 x- M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets( _& Q2 N- `9 {# P* J
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ t: u4 \- |6 G$ wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* ?' d) i' z4 O( n/ p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: u1 m9 p! H7 wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. V  X" _8 p" b) \+ Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* d( E; \# p# L9 G3 V, p$ k$ Q7 g/ Y
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! F1 b3 N% U/ J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" l" ?" l8 l  }, V
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ @/ v, ?  N, f Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 L# ]7 E! s4 }, @finding financing.  U, S$ }2 |9 B- |$ |! @! |0 f9 e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 w4 O9 x" o3 [4 m0 owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. F, X' i  U: C7 r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" n4 x" V! s4 ?8 Ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 w" _' w3 |( p' }3 r5 Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# j# ?6 R( v1 Gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& B9 {2 Q+ ]: X, R% t+ T; j( G
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 v( O# j3 \/ B6 ltoday.( v6 L$ E! h3 u. f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# r: V  d' I, E( |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 f* }) r! c8 ]0 v% p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( u% r5 s; E- ~4 l' j' ]1 kthe Greek default.
2 Y  w( S0 c/ T* |1 e As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ `7 O- L: Y) R  z0 b3 \
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% G- r. w5 z7 c3 h$ \
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) B1 ]& }3 V* o& x1 ]8 Udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 T/ \6 A  R- ?  ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& d5 z/ D8 ?* M% m0 I+ cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ s; F9 A' [6 ~1 K& ]; {, W  u) ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 ]7 M! d8 j% ?% n% p
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Beyond Greece
/ S) P8 b$ `- [% p# A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! j& ]* S7 F1 Q. `4 D" Nbut that was before Italy., P. f+ c# ?  z! g; e* U! V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 Q+ @5 J& d+ Z/ S1 n It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. ~: A: P' A$ r9 ^! ~/ t1 m& ~Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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