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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( A) o/ X# ^) }% Z4 v6 h
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Market Commentary
3 t+ V  Y7 O4 \/ bEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) n6 C7 \1 F  {) U
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. f# E+ m: P. Y3 @+ j
Signature Global Advisors5 P% K. ^6 ?3 S- W6 H; B, d

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Background remarks! [/ {$ L# H+ r0 h3 [6 c3 A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. R9 I' t1 e. }6 S9 N% f: C
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
( [9 O+ N* R' ~' b0 H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# q+ T. s7 z% Z( T7 |
adjustments.+ D7 J  n& n7 s+ B$ H5 W7 P
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  `( f- h* \( c( lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# q9 E1 o8 N9 c* M! e  ~ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 Y* S9 a+ ^' h
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  N! t8 U& g% B* W, v
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 m6 X" ~7 z& e& [2 W
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. Z: I* }0 r2 m9 D* A
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. p3 k/ |# s  v
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( d; ~! z  n  m6 y7 p* {7 t. k3 h3 ^, \ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 W% S  |4 x9 w3 P' Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" ]! |& f1 H% @& _9 B3 l7 ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! `) y! A% F( d2 n7 J# }
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( i+ ]& [0 f( ]& U. Las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# s5 d" Z2 }( ^# [
impose liquidation values.
) y4 w. D" s/ g- U. K& m3 u In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In* w, R: a3 B, q3 V& ?( H  R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, A' @9 M. O" H9 B The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! r* J4 `+ A- H' ?& e& F0 Bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 A* j/ e1 \% _' T

# n$ w7 |# A! Z2 m- jA look at credit markets
8 a3 j( }& `) p5 }& v Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 Q* D8 F2 b" H: ~# B3 JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 r% p1 J3 b/ F( w High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 o  m3 @& h$ O& p& c. |9 z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 Z- C& K9 l; c' e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( ^/ w5 r! L5 l% Z" vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, n. x' d6 V4 v7 ?1 Z% _, x7 ?
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 x$ P. e  l9 J6 mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 P  l7 k6 ?7 C/ t0 ?
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 n/ m* ?( ?/ d* \, H
finding financing.4 Q; }4 x2 f* _* ]; p: s
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( m& R& k' Y* E2 u6 f
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 P' P1 H8 @& a8 I
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 U+ v; q+ L; K7 A; A/ Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 K% f' N# M9 s
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 ?" r% |' i1 c* J3 wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 w' h" P4 L, t5 n# q' J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& A9 v8 u! ?* s' s: d. b, g
today.0 N. V0 E& `4 b" \4 r# Q
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 f& A( O$ @* _; P1 n) M, t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; o$ b- B- s; [4 @: W# V
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  m( _5 y& m' |1 f3 Xthe Greek default.$ g. k% Y; J0 [; `3 {6 O' S- D) v
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ [9 b0 c! o" j& P) ?) h1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 T( W( U# @, |5 K* k. t4 E
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign+ J. O! Z* ~/ e6 I; j
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; g1 S# `5 N. r) N3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ A. v. D& j  ?4 J
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, q% W) F$ k5 w% v* }& \0 a& {4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 d) L& \* m+ V
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Beyond Greece# }2 K- |; Y+ R- A8 }! W9 n3 v5 a
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 Q) G0 f, b0 V
but that was before Italy.! r& V6 T& }; M7 Q) ?+ T( i% u% g
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" o! S' T: A1 \3 o$ S0 g  h It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& s& B: {* j- q- ~/ ^+ a- R# k" v
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
6 F/ p# A! i9 U We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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