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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation) M8 A5 `+ X% R
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. g' r" u/ b+ r) a7 I8 Q9 K4 g
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 ~8 Z9 A+ | s% f
impose liquidation values.( y6 P( I6 h6 y( a( q: l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 j- O, Q9 w. y5 G7 U9 @5 R" GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
^; D% O( u9 U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* M' c6 U, R9 Q) V, }" d' I' r9 o. sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., m4 B# k9 h/ e1 X0 D$ v3 i6 d
2 F5 m' n1 p$ ZA look at credit markets
; h8 D, U! Y% O! |! l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& x i- N1 U1 n* S' CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) @% v, ?* X7 P, t* D High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 q; P( a( f4 [then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 R* |. W. O* e* y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ e' Z- r1 j, O$ `* Y% T! Laccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, l; B8 o# Q) ICCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' _- ? N& E' v; T; i3 R) ?/ {4 hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 j$ ^; r3 A# S$ d! ~& H V Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 k! x* J: K# v+ }8 B* p: Afinding financing.
& G8 c) o5 F$ A+ v( }& A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% O# z5 T7 h/ K$ W
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 l* Z# R' O7 w; q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, u, K; `+ H. o) t/ |0 F* O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- p5 y6 j' ^( J2 U; \( G
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ w* p2 V, Z" E% q6 Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 L2 f* k% |' o/ @3 A2 c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 }5 N4 D7 ?% u- O2 S2 y
today., s4 `( Z5 Q( V5 P/ H3 J. h/ } W
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) Y- @$ ^, q; [! H, \7 S9 xemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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