 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
* G, x" g* F5 x' s+ t7 y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& \0 A3 _, I! z& Q. F4 j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, S+ O. g7 `7 ^
impose liquidation values.* G- r8 E' j8 T1 F+ t7 p2 e% Y" Y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; A( ?8 e3 |. XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." e% m" n1 L- R4 |1 {4 f% }7 u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 p. y$ g) T* `/ z' w& j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
9 d0 m- M2 Q5 N' d6 {
& {) u8 `! T" ^* i8 \A look at credit markets4 h/ \4 P& s) D* D/ H6 }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& A' O% } F, U. D+ X# U# |
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. B% \2 w: v/ ~& ?1 G- n
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 X9 |% ]! V. V7 M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( T1 k3 d% @/ ]; u" @' t, tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 m$ n4 A2 A1 `& e. zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! Y; ?: |3 K: w! G1 CCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- `/ ~ t* e5 S8 A/ g6 x# A
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 B+ H+ r' ^0 V/ ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 w" r4 J* g A) Ffinding financing.8 f" |; n7 _ I0 N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
b! F4 j' S, rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% p2 d- M+ K5 m& e1 t# I) y( l Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! p; Z0 C" D8 \ r* Cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 `* N# R* k) J2 ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ M' ^- T' v u# I+ vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! u6 X8 W8 r0 Y% Y* z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 x! @$ R9 `0 r: [5 ytoday.
1 O- f+ U+ g6 C$ M& a5 a Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! {* S2 Q8 c2 Jemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|