市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

. L  E% T" v& }% [  ^( bMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 ?* s2 L* W+ I4 `& }1 n( ?Signature Global Advisors
+ m5 b1 P' t; y. O
* K1 J2 {# O" u
; w5 L; d9 P) V- F* o" [0 Z) dBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 J. H9 y, e/ [; C; _/ D" Zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 \7 d5 o: \' \5 D0 x1 U2 ~( ? Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ T. p. p3 P( u7 Q' ladjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
' R+ \, x; ]+ ?1 c' I* v0 x9 u Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 n4 _! C0 _5 g$ a/ U% fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
9 ]7 e3 ]) A! i+ V* E( t/ p* X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 H2 l+ d  y9 D3 k  ?/ \; _9 rAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 V8 j& m% q% c) {$ D# T The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& H* z: n/ a$ A' oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

. h" C4 ~" B; B) jA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 N! M: s  O2 ]: L! ^/ _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 p' r$ K1 a& naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 E4 C3 M2 u2 a# o5 i& @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 k! s5 s  C; i# T' c# A, Dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- q! Q' |2 L. o% b9 ]bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 V& @1 a3 k9 }! f1 s$ x European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ _- Y3 [9 P/ p+ ~) A3 t" E9 W1 t' t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" g3 N( s7 @8 }  p& sdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& ~# p; w; s' s3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 {, S) }  m0 C; j, F0 ^but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

* L, E8 i* @( f1 T4 J2 t' {Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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