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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- \+ O2 F1 m& t6 i
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Market Commentary/ N$ t# n/ }5 W  w
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 t0 @( B6 ~9 O+ l
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 J5 m- S' h7 P" A9 H6 U4 RSignature Global Advisors% D8 F. D3 {1 f1 U4 O8 n
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/ K, Q9 g! n. n5 ]9 k
Background remarks
- U/ |/ P: {+ z  U2 { Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 }8 U$ B4 m: |( \* M# L
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! E' D, ]0 Y1 v1 p+ L; t7 `. D Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 v3 s% O) V4 `4 L
adjustments.
8 @" M. O3 S' w This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* P+ [$ |9 X6 B. D0 W! y
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 A3 ~7 k! h0 B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) B/ Z6 a" i6 @4 a) ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.6 h6 e% ?# _* `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, E+ l1 D4 O2 c3 w% X! K! ~adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# i( A( Y! V% F& B6 X% X+ v Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 J! E# Z6 k7 @2 {; z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. |' z' F# }, Q) s' F& y4 }
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 S& y6 e( N: Y/ s; v( h& S# C6 H! j
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& _+ |, P& V: I1 R5 f0 g4 u
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 P9 N! H! h* d5 Z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% h- I# {) U1 T/ h9 O, Z: s
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% E3 L) k( \  v. f) Zimpose liquidation values.
- K" B+ h- W9 O In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 l. b0 ?2 B- \- b+ {. R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- n& D" q  X" {  f' P' A+ T The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. A$ p( o: |% J7 mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets& t. z, f2 N* s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 N" t$ r# t5 u4 @. ?3 ASeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& y6 N) o' x) b" O High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" ?6 S# B1 \$ c2 }" G/ }then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 r6 G+ h% Q5 T2 i( i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 H7 s4 a  {6 d, ?% z( Y# Eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 _% u& y+ c% i2 DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  m! U: A3 H0 D2 zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 E' u4 m0 T8 H5 h/ @7 b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% Z, }2 P8 O) P  V# t$ j
finding financing.3 `. P& v( {  w4 w
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: m- G& ^) ]0 D2 j8 H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, `6 y/ y3 ~& N* r; V6 P- W- ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" n7 n! ^4 N1 l4 I# m4 M3 Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 `6 ^! [9 O5 j/ a& K7 ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* i3 {  t* @) z% Q/ J0 H5 |  `bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. M2 d" s) H9 V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" T% }% U( M) k( @+ q7 x
today.
% z+ I. R) M5 s1 T( B! G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ q- I: C, D" W5 X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 {0 Z8 o9 |" G0 H Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# D4 B, o, j+ j, a/ a4 G' Lthe Greek default.6 b; W/ x& H3 l/ `' _3 s# q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 W* O3 n" M/ T, t& b8 C1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. s* u% }( ^7 T7 e/ c0 Y8 [6 B- d5 M9 Q2 i
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. }; r1 \  [4 ~: u
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.* j" W& b/ n  K& ^9 n6 R! R6 t4 g
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% L/ N: B! m- }6 y- \0 K2 H9 U
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
& c1 S% a2 {, z* _+ X6 U/ }! q1 t4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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8 e+ T) z2 Q1 k# A8 r* LBeyond Greece. E/ s* {7 |3 Z9 g  w8 B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; t6 B% n7 x4 c" }( p( w8 `% ~) }but that was before Italy.+ M) S4 {: Z4 Y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: \7 n! U" y5 F; l3 [1 t It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 p1 {) O; l9 |# j8 N! p) t/ y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 D- V2 [) y! E5 w

$ p2 g- Y! M6 ?Conclusion
2 T' u, z$ n$ r, V We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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