埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2471|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( w6 D9 X$ @) z" e

1 L" E( T$ z2 u% H* J- |2 ~Market Commentary4 W, w7 C/ J/ ~% F+ q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ m% B7 W) U1 a6 {1 cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 V' t% m( _! m7 l# y" l$ kSignature Global Advisors
- I# |4 j1 u' A0 i  M5 ^* W. ]- ^/ `* U  t6 T
6 C2 i* X) x- b; m
Background remarks+ ?2 p; @9 W7 C4 [2 e: J( R4 U
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ l) d# _' k0 r3 ?as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' H4 T0 p9 u' e2 L$ v) n: q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% u7 u1 }% N* \  l. Gadjustments.+ V; |! P: `9 W3 I& R
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 F! \/ d2 K# P" \
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 u; P5 J" l( V% T* n. v: _" x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 \5 G% H! P1 o# X0 b6 dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
# p; h& q$ t* b0 b$ Z7 O/ O2 k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 r( X0 ^. H$ I6 b2 kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 h5 C1 F' n$ K' N+ v- l3 k: P
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 D" Z- f" u6 X* u9 g4 C* q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 @* H1 ^, p5 Y9 ]# F! [% G% i
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. H: t' h  r# A0 a8 k& ^/ u) Z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
* ?' O- V+ S% R4 B2 |; G: jreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 U9 a7 u% o+ {, m& i
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: Q* X% J2 D; ^: Y3 w: x3 k- m% Z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 W1 p4 z) e7 i1 h+ p
impose liquidation values.
% P( ~0 J3 ]/ g+ e In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! t, ?- O8 D- d9 g0 j) ^
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 m  a$ p- t+ j! O  B: n The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 N9 s' y1 j7 P( L* L) q/ P: U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' K! p2 N% M' c' V6 u- b; M; K# R8 U, M1 l$ N  {- O+ y
A look at credit markets" m7 `/ l4 d  m+ {
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ o$ @  I. @8 s0 M* `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 N# T7 E/ ]( ^
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 A2 f; O" N& n+ S* U; W' y6 N, ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% g* N" H9 L1 v2 m/ ^% i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! q3 R5 G" ~  G* L$ i7 J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 j. v$ ^1 \' z" t7 M* u4 h/ H
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ Q; L& W6 f1 q* F8 M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 q; W  z( y6 v7 ?5 T6 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% b) |" S7 t8 s5 |" P5 m5 J3 P
finding financing.
5 b5 Q; \* _2 G5 R% [  X Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 w2 |: J/ L" ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 I6 U0 \6 z% ]8 i5 I& `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 B$ H/ [4 t( G8 f* C" x8 Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* s) ^# _, u, ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 J# e4 K7 U. f& B- w  @' `7 rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 Y/ U4 ]& w( D+ e European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 n  k: [9 z" Q0 b+ v; F2 z6 @& j5 Otoday.) G, R; @' i$ s5 U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 q/ e) w* g0 d6 C+ n9 m6 N4 y) a4 x
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, Y2 c2 j/ X& y8 I Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
& }2 F# ]( G9 H' X& l" e, O$ ?+ jthe Greek default.. S! I+ R8 r& T( A/ ^  F  D: e
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 \# N6 @, l  S$ |+ h8 L1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 }* C! D7 m# ?- U% ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( f% I: G% i5 i: m( [4 \+ t+ M
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- p5 D, k3 X" ~/ b# Y/ `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( E' p+ z- A0 f! Q
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, |2 K4 W* ]4 o! B  M6 r/ ?% i% l( {4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
" x- {2 A# t+ g* G1 t0 W8 {$ P% _) X: m" K: j8 F' C
Beyond Greece$ @8 E3 _( K& J
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  O" {8 e2 A8 `but that was before Italy.
/ B( S4 H0 A4 A; n1 Z  y. l& s It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ }+ f% K( ]  W/ X It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& N6 D6 Y8 h* F' z2 z3 vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
- W- k4 a, ~9 _  W* {
0 e! l! b+ f- H2 I/ v: ~Conclusion! g$ h4 e+ x& m/ q4 G
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-2 19:34 , Processed in 0.077083 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表