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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ x% l" {6 i% P" C7 i- x* ?+ K8 A" {& B8 O
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Market Commentary
( }# Q0 C; t6 \. uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- v: L4 M% g: O' |5 X+ t
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 J$ \" d0 j8 h; J, G9 \0 \
Signature Global Advisors
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9 W3 i  Q4 x% S2 QBackground remarks
0 V3 `7 Q2 |" R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ k% F2 G1 e  p
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 }. C8 z( d& y. J6 l9 ` Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal: E8 o0 A, w' D5 X- R
adjustments.
+ R% u- X7 [, b: C9 V# n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 [/ A& p3 G$ N7 k" h1 \+ P1 u1 ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 j  p  r; f& {) e; e+ P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ k6 o* ^/ p; l: r. Vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners., ~2 c/ s3 V( j/ U" g
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; Z' x5 U) u* ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 x: h% H9 Q/ W2 ~ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ W6 X* m0 ], p: b; B8 d1 R: Xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 y2 |+ x0 b7 T& M5 x" {# @
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( Y% X) K& Y7 T; r Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ f( [# y' @+ _/ M, ^# ^: U& nreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ a4 ^; r2 q! I2 r! ]6 Y: L( o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" B. ]6 b$ ]+ b; j3 g  \# Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; @. v8 q5 O- L
impose liquidation values.: }3 c1 c3 \7 v3 G& K" [+ Y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: S' o7 p) J* U0 mAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% {8 _( W! J% ` The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( w& n6 H$ N' {. F) }& i" K) X; ^scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets, {; X6 x' Q3 x7 d
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- e5 L& Y+ y5 L8 ?$ m; hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, @( i- u4 h8 x: v" Z) n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 }, ]6 G, [) K8 q! _) @then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 P: O% g6 d* _3 `: d* J- E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 g% K! g( Q: S. G7 v$ w7 saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ y& M! }. Z$ T4 K0 Z9 O. F2 j
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 T: ^) `0 B: mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 N8 B4 i( B7 b5 y# Q7 A( I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ {6 t5 O' F: u
finding financing.! }* `4 U* V+ H+ y1 [* ^
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; z! y2 P* ?" d9 ~$ s9 i0 J6 H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 ]! V% ~# [2 r+ h: N! ~* z! Z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( _5 U, o; ]+ \; w0 n3 o
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. u( A/ ~  e2 A) T" {1 [
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 A6 U* b0 k7 I' |" D  J! M" Wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: {  D% B% I# n# K! f9 g
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* h9 b  J8 q, B+ p# ztoday.
8 D( e+ G) P# i. I Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 W0 |. ^1 V$ E4 [5 y$ \emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 U4 N/ I) H! l( U. E3 A% X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) i) E- X* c1 t7 k6 y8 X6 M3 y8 Kthe Greek default.6 ]- G! |( D. ~$ j9 N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( p! g- ]" Y- E2 W
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 h3 U( t- f; m+ H3 d4 O3 f3 [2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& M' W9 O  f/ Z# p+ R1 d" W7 B
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 w/ L/ a6 T4 E8 u0 w9 X' f4 B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 A- n8 a8 V3 N: H2 r0 h' {5 f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: x& N% s# S  Y% Y& Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- g# n* s) T, w7 E- P+ y' x/ G
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Beyond Greece+ T4 B* f# W. V3 W  {. K
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( c9 j) ]# |  q0 W! sbut that was before Italy.$ n4 j$ w* Q$ q9 E4 T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
& \: Q' e7 Z& _! Q+ A% i It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 t& U  q" @1 U2 X* A
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ u0 f" c, L4 k
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Conclusion4 z& W+ d7 @" l8 x  `6 S5 X8 s
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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