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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。* l3 L3 C  q3 n9 U/ z  J; Z3 |( j

% S. @6 ~* Y% @2 lMarket Commentary
6 E9 N- s; u5 h& f1 q- Z2 YEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ O. @  m0 }0 h: E% e
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) |5 k* ^$ M/ z0 TSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks+ x4 ]  b2 d; Y4 Q5 X
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 q2 ]1 e7 w' A
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 t; V2 M/ }  U+ _/ V
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 L% o5 P7 x0 u/ L; |adjustments.
8 y+ v" M0 \7 s4 C+ ?4 u This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 d. M1 U1 j7 Q0 {- B* z" v& Psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ C- @! H5 z+ Z5 ~7 ^" H: g
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 c2 m+ q& d7 ~  ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* |- c, z$ _) A! }4 ~: v# h1 m
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, w$ b  K* R, r( m0 D, iadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 v) D3 s$ _" |6 m8 }( c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
, s; `3 [8 W" z" \2 nquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 D4 H4 ~( J# t0 @5 m6 s
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' R! ?- b& u. c8 T& K Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' G- K4 L% h! [9 [& N& c8 \( O' B$ \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 _2 a6 C2 U. v: T- s5 J The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* Z( Z6 W  Q8 {7 b7 uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 |$ a6 I4 r0 m6 o
impose liquidation values.
( l# M6 h3 }' U6 j# x* h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* J) E: G# `  C, j( r. yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ F0 w0 C: q( Z$ Y  R" f# S# `8 V
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 c* ^! ?% A3 P! Q0 ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
. q* g3 w- B& C9 s$ _% b# W; m4 A: J: \7 q
A look at credit markets) q3 l* X/ a" W0 O, ]% n( K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: T. [& N0 e) S. hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* B4 I8 l& n# x! j% G8 E" V* c+ k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 y' ~$ g) w2 z& q* r8 j( Lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 j: ]9 C# U* S5 J" H* ^5 obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' J; k& N; T" I: ]" Y/ l$ g9 ?access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 x8 y8 s- z2 [: @2 c) Q3 v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ r. \8 _' i* W. E$ M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., y2 t0 ^7 y' T7 n" d% J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 v1 j7 |1 e+ q$ G2 y( Gfinding financing." j# R& G2 k5 W, v: O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( I) A- L, {+ g7 ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* X0 z. p, T; N. r7 C5 q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, y! x) q( P9 Z& ^is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; D  t, i9 Z& z+ ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 C# l0 G" d1 `, A8 ]0 y/ j
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 \4 J. ~: [. u8 |. M3 }/ |5 C0 l European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. X% E% s+ _6 n6 Y% K2 J
today.5 d# {5 u, L+ u" t4 J
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 j) E- ]7 R- u
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 T  p: `5 W  g# l0 G Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* h$ m& O7 f* H
the Greek default.3 j8 ~0 {2 M5 Q7 ?, k7 m* y5 e
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 s5 H, B9 g' Z# v. V0 Y$ O1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 S) w3 V8 P) S2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' a) v- g( b4 `5 C# i* \( }* pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.  z- p* l5 S7 B, l
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* n& c( P) d6 a5 K- ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  k4 Z3 j8 `% N( h4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.$ C: q- o& y: K+ }+ v3 O  }
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Beyond Greece
; I: x/ m2 S( A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ k4 D5 L; U: [, A( h2 W
but that was before Italy.7 p! p0 `4 q+ Y* |
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 `+ w0 o$ R( q) D
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" }# @  y2 x% xItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
4 u* a; G/ D8 h& E! y
8 M+ x- Z8 q5 i) V- _. V/ ]! MConclusion
. E4 y; u2 `5 e; R  A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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