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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
0 x) b- V$ R6 Y8 e% w5 ^  DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) Q. p4 p, |  c. ]8 N! jJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( k; o0 w- t8 S* U1 l2 E( F
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks9 e9 J5 d- f* }( a  v
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: R7 v& q7 K" B0 h: g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, n: d7 y7 \8 S  M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) Y- ~/ ~- y; E8 r7 A
adjustments.4 C# a- \: q" E
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 Y. H5 X6 L# w! d& k, Msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 h7 j2 m0 N5 X  ~ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 c8 ?; g; w$ @4 Elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 f, l2 r$ h* m9 y2 ?' L& Z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
3 G" |+ J  _% S8 p6 Z8 ~adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" j9 N" T3 R9 w. T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" H8 D6 |3 k% c8 D- k- h# O; pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 I, L0 n: r9 S' G5 G" t1 B Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 E4 K# i- p0 Q1 c' \2 ?6 f. C5 ?+ h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 w- ]* J( a3 \4 }$ |0 b6 g, o' N+ q" Nreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation$ f3 \' ]4 ]. }) u; P* }) K; a& \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ |3 P) z9 E5 T  p
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. }" ?( T- c% h) Bimpose liquidation values.& A6 _$ X. k% a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% C( v% c. e" y( D  Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 Y& `, x$ f; Z; ~ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: M5 N) G4 Z$ I) m8 L. |5 \scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% P) W5 E1 B) w& [
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A look at credit markets
/ f, R2 }( C- Y! d4 w Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 ~+ b$ d% y; H) }0 q. \) }4 t3 e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ @. q' Y3 Y# @0 S9 w% z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- |, u6 |8 [5 h; d: W) Uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 K; {6 Y1 O8 X/ f
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! O, Q+ K/ N- J% d
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 I1 d. i; N* w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. j% U7 ?+ ~8 F5 ~& x; S( i
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 T+ ]6 c6 h1 y% j2 r6 \  o+ N Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% b( }- O, Q# K" R9 z' c
finding financing.$ M! Y6 m' M; \1 t; q2 }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they  M9 m9 i6 S. {- [2 f* U9 N& r* d
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 X8 j& ]% e; m( d3 q1 C
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 ^$ [1 a+ ~( Q& fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 H4 j! O2 _4 d: W# K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; Q, B- H4 n) K8 ?3 [
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' a- V+ A) v. A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. A) E  i9 h- mtoday.
, M& U( E' R) N' \. z/ _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ y9 c2 }. M. O& w# d. S
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  `; a$ T6 _8 O! Y: B* j Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 ?) D7 c# H# g% A% t5 Ythe Greek default.: V& Q9 N* W# O  U' r4 N: U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 D& w5 o5 G1 O8 K9 L0 s5 P) z( p
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% E" k  W! F* d* a/ _+ |8 E
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- ?# X* t# B, ]4 V# Ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.* Z$ }) @; t3 n& {
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, T" `& J$ L/ Z8 B. m" Qbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years0 C' a3 l9 I$ P  |  M$ W5 X
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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( ^8 x3 p4 o* e0 K, z1 ?$ b# |% JBeyond Greece
& r0 h; {  i6 X8 q1 g The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* y! R& y2 T* Y. O! T/ ybut that was before Italy.: L/ v. J$ {7 t; x; ^
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ j4 L5 n2 |& }5 G. d% s
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- s& x; _2 |6 W; JItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 W: ]) F) L( m
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Conclusion
* h7 w! C. W$ y; |  j: M We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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