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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 \& L% M- y& z$ Z! BMarket Commentary/ S! I: c& Y5 o1 L# q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! [: O1 Y9 I5 S$ m  gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: a& }# f8 ?& bSignature Global Advisors, M! L, R& p! o3 d! S) I% j" S2 m
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9 _0 y/ m* b0 z$ y/ b1 u- K( kBackground remarks
5 j& ~: |* ~; s1 |' x) r/ d Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
4 r. J1 ~2 f. o+ Oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. J9 m" }# @. E1 X
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" g  g- V% M. ^: t( V' I2 V
adjustments./ _5 U3 u0 Y8 i* T# x* x  v# j; n
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 x' b6 \. O# Q6 ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) {+ `9 E5 K. a% { Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 b, r. z' J8 d; @
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
# R7 ]" F" N* V3 I0 ^ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( x8 X2 {) v- O# N$ |; \& q
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, o# \' L8 A" ]! h Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# q- l. i1 _$ U
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& J  Y& L7 N, ~
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) O1 [& v3 E% ~0 g4 e4 l$ c
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, r8 v2 S: @. X; P; B9 [0 R# R
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% h, u( i8 S3 A8 `, n, L2 C" ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 @& N1 i- Z1 d/ o# C. S
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. y6 h5 v; I6 X9 W
impose liquidation values.$ d* y# z& }2 ~" J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 q  |' J, g% r1 i6 PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 [8 `3 @: t; y2 ^9 t" s
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! {# {! q2 w# n# ]" cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
2 y1 z: j9 a9 H) z4 \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# V5 n  Y3 P! h" V
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.' B$ C4 Z# i# U% @* w: ]1 E+ r5 W
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' o7 v* r/ S- y: r' j  m, z5 P, U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: ]% z" V: b1 F% e: [9 ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& d8 G$ v2 [( d; H. \) M, V/ n: a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ U. p; b0 k4 xCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 l: U3 l7 O# E0 K/ }% d
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, [/ }% r7 n% C2 ]# _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 h$ w4 X& y; W# Afinding financing.
( e+ n6 x' m& U6 _8 I) ^ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 d( L+ x2 D/ w  A* u. t
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  ^6 g. A, }; y$ U+ D. \ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; M9 D/ u# ?1 G7 L- y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. A: e! E0 w( {8 |# V/ o" ], O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% X- Y) S" v8 o) }' R7 h5 c
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 [8 C8 w$ k  R# D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; Q/ V9 f& ~2 x
today.2 Q/ `8 x9 ^, v# H  `- B. m
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ E! E& Z4 @* s$ Q# _emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 i6 J7 |8 s* I) f4 f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 \# _! Y3 N% n' N$ W! Wthe Greek default.
. J7 S/ c! x$ `+ v7 T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
6 E  |8 ?/ K, j! g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' B: h& M. j* \! o+ }& C2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 \% i& A/ J, @0 ^; z$ z4 `8 s
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 @5 E, _2 {. U
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
0 f1 f9 U5 _4 p8 wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  k$ A1 L4 H3 T( }8 |! ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
6 y" q3 D0 p+ T: H. ^ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# G' r- {) U, M( Z5 R7 Sbut that was before Italy.2 X) m4 x" }% @- X+ i3 [" {
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: c4 A# l7 N- v It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
( [: o. w& _; R) JItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( b: z% j! [. Z, _

* X# }  j! J/ O) BConclusion
1 F+ ?4 A# Z* c$ _$ [( ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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