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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
. H2 Y" @) [2 u+ W$ N) Z" WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# w& y6 b# L4 Y, O. @3 q
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! h" P" I* K' J/ P; I7 TSignature Global Advisors) i' F5 W! i, N5 @4 n
. m7 Z( q4 \' @2 n4 J

# d2 j* A& \- k/ S! iBackground remarks
$ ]5 a1 @4 w# y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) u0 q+ c, k" W3 T
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) m6 B) s8 [9 p" p Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 x) _- D& `: P1 ^! @. l( @
adjustments.
$ B/ j* ?8 n3 G7 i- n% h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( f5 q1 \, ~* [6 P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! H/ k4 h+ e' {$ W1 l" a
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: m( r) @* z' ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- I1 o/ ~% Y) G( ] We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these0 p$ p; P3 N! g+ n# G  I
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- r( \8 o  f1 S( ]+ ^& `/ }
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 O' _/ D: r7 c. q# o; Z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- V+ {  ?; T8 _  ?4 n
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 d8 J8 g% O1 i# B( h0 J7 }$ l Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* F' L' g- y( _3 w5 ]$ Z& e
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ f: W) B0 z! w! Q* f7 o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 J5 x/ O+ S* k  Tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: {3 _, ]8 C6 o% I; Qimpose liquidation values.) ]8 p( ?" m) Z1 r
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ H5 L8 @2 N2 i
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.7 {6 P* G8 J# N6 Q( N7 z- y2 \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 F1 l( D* G9 m/ ~0 C5 L
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& B9 K8 O2 V( t; b

4 ~/ b( m% |! G) E7 SA look at credit markets
* X- b8 V3 K7 H( n+ j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& D; f" b; }6 h4 ?, l  I' rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" D2 j/ Z% J. Y: S, C: C High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 O/ n3 i* u* r! f6 A' ?
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 {+ X) H5 K+ t# l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% T$ F. A( j4 o, ^9 z2 Baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" n: y! Q; P5 C0 K) ?' ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) I8 d: m+ j  r0 n  N3 Ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  Y- O) N: S! D9 |: K8 g
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' F- \% E  O# h  j1 G) q
finding financing.
* x% @# \3 d6 k# M6 A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! k" n7 `& t+ d3 N4 M+ `2 Hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) ?. {& E* e' t. c1 Z$ F Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# _( d2 J7 U& ^5 d2 [  Y) _
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 m7 Q$ T* w" \, F; ^  O: {4 |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- R; K# ?0 T6 [& i' I: Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: K4 S9 ?) V: f7 Z: @
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) m" c9 |+ X) R& V  C
today.; H& U1 [4 X5 G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% h" P0 W' U; @; X* Q3 V# q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- Z7 h7 i" J. N2 A+ {
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% S. b# s' {9 j$ R' ~' k5 k) |the Greek default.3 k  I% {  R9 V6 M# J6 e# r
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, Z0 y; @( N6 ?) M4 M0 G# T+ n
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" l4 W* R2 D1 f- Q9 l2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* }9 A, |* \. \( p
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  h$ B' Y% n; ^" Y; p3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. N2 v4 Y; a- b/ `& Pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 p6 D7 _, n# y: v' y6 u# [4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece- \% ^9 H. D5 D$ c4 S) N  R
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 \' `* l9 v7 [- s( B
but that was before Italy.$ m- ~0 ^2 r+ O. K8 w+ x7 c
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ C* L/ h1 Y8 G  `! p6 L$ @) A" L It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: f4 `0 K) t* H5 ~3 @( WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 C/ \% z9 X, i% s% o

5 F! d. f1 I4 }' _9 j. SConclusion
- T! |% {) V- J* | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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