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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation( R* f* V) Q2 y. [3 M5 f. d
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- z* D% t$ j% m+ W) p
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 _* e- c6 A' _! Zimpose liquidation values.
" ^, U' `8 S; H% A0 Y7 K$ D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' Z2 G- E2 `( Z6 x) | |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ Y8 E, L; N" D( Q' L6 i: u7 T+ m
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% W+ U4 ^- C3 v9 x3 d" j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
. W, o7 o# H" [& R9 z: a. S4 ?( m! E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 x+ M9 b5 [. O, h2 zSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 b5 E/ ?5 N7 k- m9 g9 [& |3 W- v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# m. f1 Y* O. z: Q6 ?1 b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
}$ l5 l! J# w& h- N, ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 s* O. e0 q) |
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, i7 |5 |; ~% k* e: C$ vCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& {( K/ g- E5 P2 R8 w1 P1 Zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* S0 ?$ b. F6 m( m# U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 [7 f8 y" G, ufinding financing.
- |# `5 b) n0 s Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% h0 |3 v1 I( twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
J1 u+ S( @+ m% e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) p) g6 @ _% Y8 ]6 \0 K. s* b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 [. u" @/ m7 Z' Z% h+ H1 X; Z/ ^, \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' y! J7 c( N7 a( K
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 a6 \9 S ?( t; G2 ~; _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" Z1 C9 t1 n5 G, Q$ V. {
today.8 k* p/ Q) m# ]3 x5 E
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% x- {+ n, ]: q
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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