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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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$ V$ }( J" Z% q6 zMarket Commentary. K9 x! Z5 x$ c( b! v9 {% n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 u0 |( ^8 t- w+ I2 o* k. PJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
5 L6 H% ~9 t/ \/ K9 gSignature Global Advisors
* }; X  Q4 e% v% J0 v+ P- n
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Background remarks
# k3 W5 S; G2 @( f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ n. G8 H) v& eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& W2 u4 n; J: [$ J9 M
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ l& L  L" E0 k. q) Eadjustments.+ O9 O8 d& `) o4 G+ w' ]
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& R* [5 z5 J% e. x( g. Jsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 j  V  H- a/ V1 L* o! |
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) g3 t- @! p! H% x6 V$ @1 z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 C" N+ y4 \1 A6 B We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, {9 k0 c6 i$ D
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  B6 ^8 d: `0 Q) p Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
1 V2 z3 x& R5 V+ @0 Iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" B' M# _3 B( q1 e8 `0 Y- u2 L Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." d3 }7 o! g0 i1 Z# F
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ ~5 _( T% F( p! ]reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% A# Q) C* Y" t0 r The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 I3 a) ^" H2 l' ]1 Y  O6 M: }  \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, `" I! N  I, V6 |+ e- ximpose liquidation values.
) c: E! B+ N, C+ f( b* r In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ b# {0 }& C, {3 sAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 x) b4 x! B8 y& @3 K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 O4 A$ K$ h0 G! q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  i5 b' E4 P) m

: A' [% y' P0 Q" u/ A# g5 fA look at credit markets
) a& v3 g/ z% X Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 m: N' Z$ G/ C- e" NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 g8 h. ^+ N- I+ V1 b4 q: S High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; v% G2 w; @! p- Uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  j% d, A' Y0 y4 F0 i( T. |billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  q* D/ @+ U& x$ t6 u, S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ l9 r9 r/ e' _3 Y. `CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 c* T! c, ^3 Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- Z$ ^: H! C7 ^, b' M( W3 I
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 \% m1 ~. Q1 ^  ~finding financing.
1 ]0 `* C2 s8 D: a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ {% V1 ]9 C) c. vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  {" ~. @6 U) n3 Q, j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- m* g% h4 ]5 c- ^- G9 \& K1 O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. M$ a0 w5 c6 K. c( {0 J( A8 Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! d3 \6 I2 u( A: w( E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 `( N- G0 u) V7 ]( n6 L European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 u' a( d* }5 Btoday.
( B/ U# s; [( q. h3 o( @9 Q! t Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) R- m: y: c0 ^' n* E. lemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 w' g; T, W) N3 I; D& ? Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' Z. n0 ]' M# p9 athe Greek default.- ^3 ^7 k8 e3 }6 z2 i6 c
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- H/ g- m3 G) m" q: ]1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% z9 `" o/ i5 n
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign! |2 A7 Y5 J( I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 Z1 V+ S$ f# l, v8 b3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! ~; t( G+ N/ u2 i9 tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ z. l" j8 f0 J1 d5 r! N( I
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 V, H9 c5 g5 o8 ]1 ?/ V
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Beyond Greece" s1 `7 B7 ]: q6 K% g$ p/ R
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  |" H$ q9 `& Z% f; e0 o
but that was before Italy.
+ {9 t  P* D! s/ d7 s1 O It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 }( t& n; Q9 M  E5 R  F  m3 D
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ {) c- [( P  d- r9 T0 B) Q1 Y+ h
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; [8 I/ P0 d0 g  X( K3 m
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Conclusion
- n' O3 F: @; C& \7 V& c We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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