埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2921|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ C" d) e  v7 A6 A% W

1 k. b% w" l% G: q" N/ z/ J. yMarket Commentary
: d+ p& P' _9 j9 hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer; p0 f6 Z' B# ?
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 Y, D8 F+ u( k5 YSignature Global Advisors2 D/ l" A6 b3 a! E& F1 Y

3 Q4 X6 E- q9 z7 L  ~+ m" D- K2 X: `6 z+ E
Background remarks5 B. x) l# B! g
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 U. Z) Z' v7 Z3 G" Y4 P, P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 f) N8 I: w& \6 X
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 I3 G9 b. |( I* {7 h2 ~3 e3 T% ^9 r+ [
adjustments.
+ R, G% f" Z. |  _, B This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" n+ K+ e- s' H2 psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 Q; l% \. U4 y7 ] Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( ^+ P/ U0 Z0 U3 }5 Qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, z6 [" ~4 B( Z5 h1 j; c* ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, T# x/ `! D8 H- r) T; @adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 ~: ~+ n+ v7 j. q% ~; j
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) @* J% j* W0 b+ o6 u# R9 L+ ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; r: Y; n- `7 h- F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( [( z" j' H. x) ?" m$ m) i
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. a# E6 n- B$ Q7 y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. e; e9 R% q& w! M% E
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ H. f, A0 o! t/ \4 [# X6 Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 K4 A8 X$ m% `# A  P
impose liquidation values.
3 [- O- i* y0 R, A. b; J  V" b In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' b7 n! g# q1 P( u- p' C1 B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# q0 B* Z3 O5 s: S; x' j The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& W$ d6 y+ A/ w9 W) f  Bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
* y' D) H/ {0 W; Y3 z3 N0 Y& ?1 Q( ~! r+ V9 U& o, W
A look at credit markets$ ~( W! D( N7 l! X/ b* ?
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 @, |8 `9 H/ q! P- t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ j, u- k8 {, {+ y: @0 E: O High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%, B" F! C% |9 f
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 W& V2 Q; A; W* l1 _
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& G8 X- H6 f- ~, I4 D7 A7 P0 _" ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 r. c" M8 U5 _( Y1 C. s2 F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- [. r9 r+ M" I" v) N3 epositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 U' ?* F" h" F% m
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: C  E! C* k, E0 b' h  S
finding financing.: g8 G* H& C0 y4 i) C: P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 j. s0 j# z& F& D% G9 \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& K% }: o8 I3 { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 i! o7 U: E6 N* K
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ D/ e' x8 d' `: S, G# s& w- d6 ^. s' Mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 X9 e( E/ N: p. V' I
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; F& R9 i$ }/ q/ `% j, k% P
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! g8 z) J$ [; {& xtoday.
) D( }0 e- j1 M! n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% K3 L( H# U) u& U' e5 Z2 b8 Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( m6 h$ U* n# k5 N9 e4 t
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 ^3 u0 S0 m2 Z# p2 u2 |3 X
the Greek default.
$ q! l6 c! z3 R8 }4 K As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 n8 W! }/ p5 P& g; V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- l" }3 [9 |  d# m3 m; K2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 [8 i! ~) i( [8 I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 I2 y, w! A) E; C# z9 K3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- A% D, d0 E$ O, P) _- K- Nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* ^, @+ E' Y2 r9 P7 H1 b
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ g) U" j" P8 P! C4 }  T# O

" S: u  O7 I' j" X) pBeyond Greece( K1 W. o! j- b  x0 C2 I2 z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* Y% V  i! o5 b, i
but that was before Italy.0 @+ v% I% \9 T, V. j" Z* A
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 C5 V, t0 t6 B& Z6 o  I" y4 [
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 p3 g, B. A2 q1 qItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
6 D: a- b/ u: J' P& A3 X3 @& u1 X. A, N  @2 s. c! v0 C
Conclusion  h* {: F" B5 C) A
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-13 19:29 , Processed in 0.292036 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表