市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

6 W$ p# D. R/ c/ V3 q, v6 N$ @Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) _4 S7 @/ C1 J2 a" VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
* V% ^; S- {1 P+ z$ a
8 ?1 G6 Q1 Y& _0 g# c# Z
Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 L0 g9 C. F9 w; k Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 ?( V% Z# {; C0 ?8 z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ R- D# C( G! Q- Z* Vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 c# Z9 B. ^! |: `- xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 c' m% Y) X) u# [. tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 r* H+ U2 T5 X3 gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

1 S' `' \9 u4 K4 l/ c$ ^A look at credit markets
2 ?; e+ m/ z* H" H" @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 d' t' I9 v8 U1 E: w& iSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ I5 [- ~* Y' J/ F* M5 ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, B% E1 a4 I! H; O7 ^CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 _( |( y2 I. Epositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 i/ a$ s2 v  E5 x5 B$ `5 @finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& g7 t$ d4 R& h' v# Wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 _+ D9 l9 \& P( Y9 Ktoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 }& u( V* P/ C. Nemerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. j& j- A2 Y9 _. D" \. N2 qthe Greek default.
6 X% l# H* D( x4 k8 i& }9 | As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ w9 }4 S1 \0 Z5 W0 H' L2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 S) f) u1 @! W% Y2 y5 m) G- e3 L3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ ]1 I9 Z' g' g4 fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% \# ~: I$ q, T8 @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

( O/ L2 r" Y/ ~Beyond Greece
1 q: b' `- j- I. {7 S' Y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
8 c9 Q6 G* k5 ^: N7 D
Conclusion
+ d: [+ T( ?5 ~9 A9 q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan