 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
. w$ s8 N) [: F n3 x! S9 ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( u) W, G1 Z; `# ?& Z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# s ~. @/ M3 W, d$ L; n
impose liquidation values.) {, @3 f3 w; I" d( J$ v1 Z2 l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 C' Z; T9 V3 b7 C0 ?; k3 I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 _/ X1 ?6 [4 c# H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' F, ]+ ]9 U, X! q' Escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., E, Y7 v c9 X: q6 K
& d! @' H# M+ [A look at credit markets+ t. E0 f& `" `$ E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# ?1 f8 M2 ]7 @7 M" `/ M; l6 c% WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! L4 n8 c# A& ^
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- C3 Q* K+ I4 D2 ~ ^, o4 kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, |2 `1 \# l4 w4 H+ F. E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 Q2 F" Z1 _$ k) O2 e& d8 maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
a- j. D( E- g j/ ~+ ?5 kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ N& H0 z% J. {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 Z& [0 c \* y2 C Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* E6 o8 c- t. N6 E: N5 r6 t/ O
finding financing.- I+ l L# m( `: P% Y1 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, n2 F6 N* i- f! ?5 E$ W% X3 O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 u9 L" s1 l6 D! n. V2 j0 E Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 |* Z' Y- m& Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 J8 I: [0 \' o6 V4 }, Z) B9 k/ Agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ e- E4 H% T. s+ Y: @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place. s1 Z, a" z* W1 g# ?' A8 d: Z$ x
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- H+ c" R( B' ^8 Btoday.
0 Q8 q5 b, C4 r- m" f' e$ n B$ f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ u# L6 N/ n4 ~$ j1 r3 P2 aemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|