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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 v3 o% u8 B( S
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Market Commentary6 c+ |2 R# |# b5 s
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% y& U3 |) Y+ t8 m8 F$ gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 ?2 y9 b7 ^4 U7 S
Signature Global Advisors# ^1 W1 p) m  ?4 K7 S& W
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9 a! I& I6 W( t4 ^$ l1 d
Background remarks
: x' x: q. k! R6 s* Q4 ?! ` Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% K9 K& U" g/ w  f1 w8 ?$ j& |
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 ^+ h+ H! @' [/ t; q( ?8 M
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 \( @% R! W$ w/ [adjustments.# }  m, u% D. O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. k# m7 N4 q+ c. A( @safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 w) y4 w- Z( G+ v, e3 h1 P9 K
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 P3 Z. U8 `# Q6 F9 @( Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! D- {* i4 v. ]( U5 u/ ]
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 |. ?2 S* X2 C/ J; r6 qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ k8 x! w/ K2 \2 p" Y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# N+ f% h: _, q1 o: y; G$ O& A/ tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; Y, U3 r2 L. `5 q# G& a: G( f Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." ~4 a" S. H4 ~, l+ _1 r3 k
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 b( g- v& |6 H2 o3 N* {8 V
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ j- }9 ^% p2 L% \+ z0 T$ k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 y$ r( P& _2 q9 y8 J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 z4 s! h" z9 z* Y
impose liquidation values., j) Y) Q7 b3 S6 {  M% K, C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! T3 f/ C7 m7 O' t9 o: bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' I) i0 x* E0 @5 d6 P$ o
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- {# {# O# W. n( l0 cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 t- v% b6 u4 @4 o7 l5 Q. D
, k$ [( c& E$ y$ @& F
A look at credit markets7 m& w+ x( r( r( v' V- W' q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. V! w% e" @- i" P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% o2 M+ q. Y* T/ ?9 a: X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 x& U4 a, I0 J+ v" _
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 x. N' w7 o# v6 J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' k9 {  h3 ]9 [, _: P/ S5 o% N
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& N, U* v; L! Z; H( W8 b2 t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& C. t8 }1 b( @* B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# C  h! k$ E7 x$ `
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- q) j! r; o7 h" Z! F! o
finding financing.' r6 \( \- }' |. C3 m4 p1 p1 F. l
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 r2 |# j" S" h9 Y- I! Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ Z, R' b4 I+ w1 s6 `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 t$ L4 Z$ S# y8 r& r; X' ~" Z; r9 {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 [) V: R; `/ k) b  E3 i: \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: I3 {$ V4 }& v/ f4 I% O1 ?6 _bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 ~+ O* q) x; z* g0 ?* F. W5 [+ E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: k. z7 K# t6 `! p1 Y: itoday.
- c  Z6 B' r2 K" o0 Y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 n. o/ c- p4 m, Y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda" S8 {* a0 v- L
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 z, j/ m  H+ n2 J: \9 T% ~, {the Greek default.
. P/ g: {0 h; J" g+ @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ b+ e% v% U  ?! }% q* l4 D* a9 b' Y2 E1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 E! l1 |2 j6 r2 c$ }# d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' W7 l2 e8 A( G4 \; S' T7 R' a
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.! @. C) ?* V! Z, ~
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; g" @% N1 |* {* Rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ Z4 e" L$ Y) z+ e% b; a
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece( r$ S8 D$ g0 R- |+ K' m" U# X2 l+ n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' p" r9 N) x$ s/ {- O
but that was before Italy.
, n; e0 [% r/ f7 X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; Y, d+ B; M+ Y/ o It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" p( ~" o" r% cItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 p+ H( d1 |- U! a* x$ F

- }4 s0 p, F/ v# I- N. uConclusion
  D9 |7 c" Y& M+ a0 _3 O' X We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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