 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ N# X; f# Z9 D" H v- X1 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 M' I. P @1 r/ k, [as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 F; V _8 T0 w( ]8 B4 Y2 simpose liquidation values.
9 Y, ?9 E) ?6 U In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 z9 J" T& g0 Z1 X6 p" \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- ?5 `+ V- W0 F* d; W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& Z1 B4 H/ f& nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 p# I) I- s7 N7 W3 v
* b. x* b$ P: rA look at credit markets i- f2 r+ J' b9 A7 N
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 o0 e) |; m5 N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! I0 x; Q" m) P2 ?7 ~+ n/ ], X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: U! j6 v7 w6 Z8 `then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' U+ B+ g1 c- _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# i1 t5 p' S. t" q8 x
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 D1 Q* X) D& V3 i- U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 Y5 p! J/ G) [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 P5 Z8 x* ?/ ?5 [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 z3 n: }+ @* p' ~/ z' D" N+ e y
finding financing.3 [9 [# I. x" ~" P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 @$ P- `$ C# U* s! G6 M
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& Q) K2 j' e% [# |, t7 R
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ n; N. ~8 [9 x. _2 U. N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( @1 V3 S$ e* a, Y/ S/ \, Z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 ~# x' V8 X7 r% ~; |bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 i: _! Y) \3 z& w# w% j7 I European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& P! @; k9 @4 j8 b" _
today.
6 R/ @/ m; N+ I: @, I; k, C Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) M% U7 C; @8 \1 M1 Q8 w- V
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|