市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; N5 u% o5 x4 Y# W4 ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% j+ Z3 [7 x6 S0 E% Z$ e* w4 ]adjustments.
) p8 I2 a4 c5 `  ^ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 S% e0 a% m) e+ \! S& m8 bsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- K: |/ f( L9 q0 n/ w+ Y. Z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( s9 [2 m+ v/ q2 N; v8 h/ \2 A8 [ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 C: p- q+ Z$ [% N7 ?: Nimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 ~/ X; m+ N* b+ T( @% NA look at credit markets
, c& I: Y9 T1 j* u1 t2 M Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, w1 k( r- R# E" cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; \8 S# w; }; }; P4 ~( dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 b7 x+ a, f4 t! _% S! F; jCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 t6 I" U1 F$ d0 ]: _! vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! }  X1 N; g% q2 @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 m; L4 n( `. a. o8 Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 a) `! L7 @" [/ ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! l9 A: U* L& a6 c! Jtoday.
: H  Q2 Q( w9 g$ R7 _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 I" i' k1 y$ g9 ]2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ o  ?2 O8 ?& ?. }3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, Z/ j4 A6 A/ T4 B  r$ `  e7 Lbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 _; H/ m7 j; x% k4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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4 t0 o% `) X* _" @6 QBeyond Greece
8 k  l! e2 q" B% } The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) s! Y; y  b6 N* v% h% ubut that was before Italy.
" O) F4 F$ T* y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 r3 h' B, l1 d: E: i3 y2 u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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6 ~2 A" W. C1 M: K, W  `Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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