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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 P  M. K0 v- }% w( U6 f8 b

9 {8 [* E$ c/ I, x3 A* i, B1 SMarket Commentary$ L8 b) X' e( J6 P5 S- o4 t' L9 M  [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, M. ^! j. m1 g9 F; J/ G1 g- g; c
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' E0 @2 ^# h1 @& F# l% l7 g# s4 V
Signature Global Advisors
: A1 J  f& E! O* I: e! N% X
) U0 _1 o! P5 F3 ~- o$ a- \- Z( Z! ^+ p& F( a# w+ a
Background remarks- Y/ T) L) I; w% U
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ _; O1 ~3 L( u- q9 \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; S) A2 S6 V. X6 C+ J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 t0 i, p8 z+ D# O7 \' radjustments.+ w9 g$ ^6 p$ h( x
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 @0 N, R! s, K* z% O+ \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% }6 c6 a6 c1 P3 j) b1 r& N" m& K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
+ ~' l8 ~+ y" L. w' ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& H3 k1 D- A. g& C; X
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& ]9 q! d* d* Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 G% i8 T& `2 ~  j, y, u Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 ?$ a3 j/ v/ l, Q' \quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 S( [5 p/ |2 I; _& C  W2 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ J6 I# W. S  }4 P" F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& i7 L2 D6 u* |& X. Greduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% N5 L" v# `. C4 V6 U The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  x- O4 x' ]+ P  y1 v4 z3 G( o9 X  Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; r1 r9 N/ @* ?3 dimpose liquidation values.+ y* O' c$ X; ]6 ^: c) G1 l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% J8 r7 {% l0 l; ~7 x8 b
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 H2 k, E, W! P* l, ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension( Y! \0 d# R( X& K
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 J8 A4 A, P8 \7 N1 F
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A look at credit markets: |. q* w6 v1 \  z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 F- B8 i4 Z% b, Q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 g- _$ ]8 u) M4 F5 B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# }0 U" i. ?" ^/ j1 {then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 f: g' `4 ]7 R. W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) J' S+ r2 S: R2 ~: `9 {0 _
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 y! E5 L# d) l- j& f7 |; R/ f
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: ~; w; O, O, g' U# L8 L, k
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) M9 {; F! f; e* a- n Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' [* w: C* A. }$ Gfinding financing.
" T( K. r, W- R2 g9 ~# I8 c9 H Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 ^$ b) }5 n, E- ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 K5 N2 C5 \' y- E) H' e
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 U: G3 U, [% L. s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 W6 s8 M2 U$ W: N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  r4 Z- V) b( Q- O$ F. N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( J# r+ V$ I' H& a' `" y& @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, N1 @8 X% ^3 w/ D; ttoday.
1 p/ g* @" f* l3 X4 n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ i! }! [, N) @% |9 C7 r3 l% P5 e. i' Iemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 k8 I$ }" I: \- u Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) k: Q* w! e$ [/ {( R  Bthe Greek default.
2 `3 f+ C1 `% S0 Q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 z  A) r; {9 w0 p
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* y  G5 R( H* j2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; L0 |2 K8 h- {# k' n: F/ ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 Z+ X. G' T$ O8 @# a3 \5 e
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  a- f( N+ e+ d) Mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- F6 H2 ~, K5 @/ C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.4 y8 @+ e) M, i" o

+ E. `" b8 A7 N. QBeyond Greece
$ ?+ w/ f, d* P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! ~( H1 Q+ e1 Mbut that was before Italy.
* s6 S# h0 r4 D2 Y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ a7 o' x5 O' s/ l$ _9 | It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; i8 w0 x$ ^. ^9 [7 k
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion1 K+ `7 h: l, ^
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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