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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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/ T9 j) C5 k2 K: wMarket Commentary3 c, c& i* {2 G6 q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# {' x" B5 D( ]8 M
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- H! y4 J5 A2 e/ S: o+ {  u$ Y9 ISignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
; c: h9 k& d& v- a4 ~$ ]! B; g Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# T. P/ l0 h0 i; q( \as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& H" t$ ]+ z; r9 l7 q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& ?! ^3 ?8 b$ P0 _adjustments.
. l5 f8 M( M( M This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- W* g1 H/ m6 `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; R( G) O2 X! o3 { Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are+ s3 t4 Y  J( l6 P
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, C; U4 W+ [1 G5 u% d We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  @2 x' I( S3 s& u) m+ iadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! ^, `4 T- w, G" E+ @( U
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 c9 ]! z' m0 O# S6 M
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 B8 T) \  ?- Q* e8 X2 e Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ s2 Y9 P# G1 R9 _
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 c0 H5 Q/ h1 y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ N* j+ }" t6 R9 R2 @8 h2 V, [$ [ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 B5 q5 D) j9 u/ L( A1 ~4 u7 S
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. ~/ x0 D4 U1 Y" @, [
impose liquidation values.
- A' E$ O4 ^/ n3 p9 y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 \- Z  T1 w$ _4 q: [2 G3 tAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 G: }6 X" ~/ d The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 I* |& _. |. h; \& b( O1 [& Ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 k& }" L/ v2 u4 A4 ~7 d

0 a+ E6 s3 b* E# j! k" MA look at credit markets% U" M. X" g1 _8 j
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 W7 b. w- J) F9 q8 cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 U% b& ^, h2 D! d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% N0 b* j$ N" y% g3 z) x; v9 h
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ `  j5 P$ G0 c1 ^# ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% C9 p3 G" Z+ X2 V* Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% b5 Z( [2 s! l" ^- F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; e( q; p4 W1 \' L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.; y% h) H* C* e4 `3 I
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; d0 s5 x: J! U2 k$ Nfinding financing.
; {! O. R8 k. A5 d+ k) s5 i Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( J2 C8 V/ n$ B% T& bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* i5 V4 P) U- k  H, o3 f- d Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  W/ q; t$ L! t! h5 A# V9 V- v8 Vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ g$ g* G" q& X( w. |5 |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- d# U/ s$ y+ E) A6 [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) a; D0 w: B  c5 N9 y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ E# y7 c5 U5 c& Xtoday.
# Y  I$ e! D8 D* @1 f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 F8 T+ Q# r3 D. R+ bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( U7 R0 C  v, D4 z0 z2 ?
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ h( \# g6 X- X. n6 Nthe Greek default.- P1 j% ?2 u* n& a2 u' B8 t
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. z5 N( h  R9 [5 S1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: Z. _% n0 m1 \5 k/ S' ]& }
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' ^' z. I; o: I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 v) @/ b# D. U: |: A6 Z# V
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 H' k6 u; U' ~
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 L' R. w9 T# q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) p3 L3 j/ g' C
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Beyond Greece0 w1 W* h9 ]2 [% J3 w) D* l. |& I
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 b3 C) v- I, i3 A/ ^) p' F; g/ p+ xbut that was before Italy.3 g/ v0 D7 V1 @! o1 p1 ~$ h1 u; W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) k7 X& g$ k9 [$ n& l6 D) I It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the( X+ P7 z; _6 K. V5 ~
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion2 H$ H' j! o% M7 b1 u; B0 J$ ?
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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