 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
: O v! P. [ p) L( a% E. c The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& [% o! E1 P8 K- Z" p( O% Tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' P0 [) [2 k) r' U0 W
impose liquidation values./ T4 C7 J7 ~1 ~3 v7 N1 |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 I! K4 f6 ~" p$ T" Z0 g* LAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ u6 |5 D& I* C9 R5 e, ]# h The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ ^ Y; _* t% r+ e
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ p `3 n/ Z$ b; @
# e8 c) `' p. W7 M6 k& D! y2 k
A look at credit markets
$ Y7 j2 U2 J3 z [: l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! h% S6 X, S0 f, B, T7 t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 n' O" r* Q6 z2 h, ^' l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! I8 R; X, v4 i, h1 qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
" U- C9 p& I+ f/ j* Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. D( N O' j9 s" s/ W6 y3 kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 M5 K+ ?) `% C( D/ i8 M) }7 f2 Y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' @ i1 l6 v x3 C0 I0 w) U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( r7 Y' `# N, v/ o Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. ]9 w$ x* H: ~9 Mfinding financing.
2 f' g, J5 j/ m4 n; E/ L Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 l& a6 T( I) z! Z: @# t" G, C
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: R* w, S6 j+ }% O: N4 k X, o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& p& V, v7 M, J2 R* T% Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 G9 E2 s d$ o0 Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ r5 J' k) F( Y6 h6 B& Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: u- v- _0 l2 E0 n' u+ Z7 r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, ^0 r/ O1 n; U# |+ n+ h
today.. T1 U! _; s/ Z" Z; ^: G! O& c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 _) d V% m$ lemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|