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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 X- q' P5 n. n; Z5 g; R! q, z
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Market Commentary
" d2 }& ?/ K' cEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" e  {4 C+ P  i; Q- o; }$ WJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ J* F1 U8 `5 y) W* z. f: l' f
Signature Global Advisors
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) S; Y7 D- u0 H4 q: k/ vBackground remarks0 W: D5 y7 f3 P
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ D' Q) p# W: X
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 C! l, v5 g' G0 T2 `- v& [ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 Z& k4 p* a; L, N3 A& }% `
adjustments.  m2 Y$ D6 C3 \* G
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; Y1 k$ Z7 m; Q" F  G( o( Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. W( E+ g6 r6 l; H8 h1 ~+ S Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) [2 `& F6 U; C$ g; k, [lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 z  h- G  _% T* s. w+ I8 a. O We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* n' G' j7 S: L0 s* x* Kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 N1 z; c. ~9 T- _- g5 `
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" w8 u$ g* K% [7 j4 e& y8 yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. p) w# w( S1 K7 p* k/ M5 d Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 j. A+ `. E( \# n; j/ ?* T Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 C" N; ?8 G1 ~
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' C6 J) ~; ]1 H) T5 T! d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ @4 ^0 P! |$ F$ k/ B
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: I7 o2 _' o' ]8 u$ d& T3 O5 timpose liquidation values.% r  C( i. K! U$ g( M
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ i% e" C  s( B  f
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; V) d$ n7 D  [& v4 \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ J4 b1 z$ u) k0 ~! Y: s, iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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6 z! K; d8 j6 S& @: |. dA look at credit markets
9 o/ s/ N3 C( G5 ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 Q6 n1 h& z  N) _7 }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 F0 F( E0 N; B" O7 ~9 I0 m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 z6 {4 r3 X. b$ Qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 O9 m, ]# |8 x6 l; ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: _) {' ]% y0 P$ d- U6 I3 n- Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 H! {) o- `) c) ?/ o
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# V, z8 w6 s( P( p
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' J1 c2 M& W2 ^$ U% V Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" H+ [/ {" h" {% nfinding financing.2 M! j: |2 S3 ?: P" p- Q" r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 u' ^8 V5 l9 p% `3 E- d, Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 u! g& S+ c# y& [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: x8 G) C- ~  R) Gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 s% y. c/ y  c3 [/ |6 j- H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  U: n2 x/ {  Gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! \; ^9 q9 }5 {( [. p  G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: O' E% b) b- i
today.
4 n: j; E4 [+ i& V* E Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& n$ Q; {" F! Y7 y5 I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, n. N2 n1 d' U: x( D7 A/ X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  g0 S* t0 M$ g( d9 g; U0 l& B3 x- ~
the Greek default.) m- _9 j9 F5 R2 Y# U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:# o3 f0 j, Q. D. I5 F( p/ q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( Y; r0 C: Z5 V4 g2 e5 _5 T4 a
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 h/ Z+ L2 s5 U/ Tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.( o: L* y. \9 W* [# b0 D
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 `( f  |4 i' `; }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' j4 z7 U5 U0 w! V/ t" |4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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  k- |/ B! {' B8 I! X) Z7 k$ mBeyond Greece
- f$ n  t* h4 T2 n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 B% u. T  b8 ~7 sbut that was before Italy.
1 o6 ]2 s- H; x% |" ~) ~: D It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: k* F% _2 v" z' b. F, O It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: i7 b; K. U, |1 r$ F& y/ W3 d
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.$ k: f! i/ v  d8 k0 \$ l

) G: K7 e, ~2 \" L! y7 E. f9 d  pConclusion
- @" ?0 y  W% k: ?/ D- ^ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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