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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
5 {8 l( a$ n; G6 y4 ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# i% z' h3 z9 }2 ?7 O; ?& |( Uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" K3 G% z. G2 }) }8 L1 uimpose liquidation values.
/ c/ U; A$ A; p# ]2 g' x3 { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( p# }6 N5 @% T b: G" v; C* J
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 [; `1 R8 ]' e: ~ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 G9 e) }6 k2 [9 j+ R1 ^" ]8 m, zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets8 m3 |! Q4 ]& a2 c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 f4 S5 r1 [# z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, w) w7 |# e. U. w" x( i. Z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 X: ^; g8 v, J7 ^9 ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: d8 Y* ~9 z% x
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* }7 O( B9 e: R) taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# c4 o: u; G4 }CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' ]; J+ V9 H, ]/ [- L; s6 hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 A5 H l, q; t% z' n0 ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" j, i! Z3 l( @ i) n) ^# [finding financing.
5 ^$ Q6 @% W1 h( ~% p: }$ |3 V- G Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
@. R A. v0 X- u8 S1 }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- r. X" `0 @% S& \* R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. f0 w/ x0 _7 p, A! x1 H& B, y* q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 G! \5 V3 w0 y/ G* qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, b+ W' G+ J, I) Y1 B2 ^3 X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 O' b% L2 {/ T; [- t4 H1 Z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, i+ ~$ G( E7 L2 j' m3 Z1 h
today.
9 _* M# o6 w! H, w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 J' Y8 t& f! S6 R& Uemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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