埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3850|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
! v; H2 ~* [% `; D' c1 ]8 H; V9 k! q' z; ?' b* @* h, F
Market Commentary
' v2 C* u. J: x6 S( Z2 R" d! z( l+ LEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  l. t5 r  q3 R
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 \* W4 q5 M& V  ~' u7 m
Signature Global Advisors
+ @, }$ V; V. b6 w* |& M/ c3 x$ c) m8 T3 P

4 h8 w# l# }3 M9 LBackground remarks" U$ Q3 Y4 Z) K5 z( \! @
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" z% W# g& ]  [# _' E7 zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# Q9 O& Z' D: b8 ?8 j% F( _- |
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 f4 X' r5 b. e  z
adjustments.3 q% `0 b5 @! ^
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 \" Z3 @% G# l  J/ m5 A% r6 Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.$ T$ M' `" p# P, b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) U! d! o" n8 Y4 j2 q7 ]. U
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ L) W! U/ [  P; V We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" h) z; A' V5 J7 t- h9 {  Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' {' ~0 L- D5 m1 l5 d5 o Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
1 i. M' P3 o( `' G. E+ tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* s2 s  O% N7 L, N Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 L7 R1 B6 Y  I2 I
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ l# A! [+ C; a% [0 X, W) ~/ freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& s" |4 l" Q' ], x6 H
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ d1 i2 @/ m1 O' }- O8 T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ G- O. D; k2 I& ]. T' M, ?impose liquidation values., F- q9 V# G2 e; E- z. r
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* g/ g3 Q" r+ r6 o: G5 ^August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  [$ o1 j" C$ T% t. G, [, C" }
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. L8 r' C  Y/ A
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: I4 q# L; O+ o% i! C( K( c

0 r- y) T: L1 n& G& b/ aA look at credit markets
  v6 `+ H9 E" |# T( G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, @) g6 S9 Z" D- J3 p" GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! |' k6 a& w# a
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" o, `9 [- l" D* r! u! G# v5 Jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! `/ W+ Y0 A" n" J5 q) U0 H: Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 Y: m6 C: X4 A1 f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 N4 Y" K) A, _. h+ k" M0 z% LCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 E/ o' f3 P8 q4 U& Z: f4 p
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% r  d2 y& [# X8 V- D! D
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! x/ @% i" }/ c* {6 K- v, [0 ^, G( H
finding financing.* D$ `& p' o3 I% h1 m# c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 `0 F7 I- J6 A! E( a2 T( l7 `were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- q/ e: a& C5 f+ T8 G9 l1 [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 o3 i; Y7 W8 @, u6 {9 uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 f3 j; A* p5 T5 ?6 |1 v  H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( C+ a& @" ]) [. }* `bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 _7 o. _; F+ | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) r4 y3 l# X: }3 J  V- T
today.
, @# u6 I0 p# }5 \" R Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  t  n2 a" `$ R+ L" g
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 V+ ~3 s5 ~+ H Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; ~/ j( T7 g" K' A; @the Greek default.6 G1 j6 Y8 A$ q1 O7 |% D. J3 x7 t, m
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 v/ y& c+ u0 W$ ^& _, d
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 w: u4 f; n. @$ I4 ]7 u6 [" K- C: ?* l2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 k" W2 @/ ~, Y9 k9 Wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! ?" l" g) m1 W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 t# W! Y. q( F% O" ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- B! s% l2 W7 [- K& A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 }6 v, u. Q2 M( i, W/ C& B

9 q; _$ e* f3 k( e9 VBeyond Greece3 D" [  `$ I  y; H, `' _
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 k0 F2 P  t( X
but that was before Italy.0 P% }9 r7 G* @4 x* N: q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ T4 ]8 J6 P' \1 g  P It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  X, m- N# T5 Z0 _6 KItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 e! f. o5 L7 w
9 O2 }9 h* J  v- O7 Z0 N. b, X  A
Conclusion- S! u  x2 ~3 f) W: q; C
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-9-6 22:30 , Processed in 0.094738 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表