埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3837|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. r5 I& ~6 g9 i3 r0 [2 g8 B4 W

, m! J) Q& Q7 ]. ?2 Z% |Market Commentary
& }. g5 p( S! _- x& ?$ L. lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 V- o1 B9 S" l  O1 p
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 R  z9 l, j! x  E6 ZSignature Global Advisors
$ t! _2 H9 a6 ^3 Z) X2 ~' C0 T
& ^: v% z' T( ]; l  w7 l# U2 m; @
' ]/ a& ]9 Q9 c$ c% X6 `$ vBackground remarks
, Q; N( x) G1 O' m' v9 S1 i1 a Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, S* v5 ]- E! r! c7 \" ?4 `# ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ }9 @% e  w4 M+ y/ B* m3 `. K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& o2 N* N5 h. c3 P0 m
adjustments.& W1 b) Z8 {0 b# N% }6 `( r6 v' E* n
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ S( @4 [+ I6 @$ ?1 u, E
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) T8 e3 O# z7 ?0 S; U Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are! I+ r, e; Y1 Q0 h. n. L! n2 \2 J
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* ?+ K0 X: s& K6 O# s: O! o' j We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 R9 m1 c9 [" `/ s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 Q+ l7 ?2 [0 ?
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s- A5 p- M/ t! @0 H* o% }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' l. P* C1 J+ n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) Z! d' c. I+ {' E
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 }# N- G6 C( l' B$ k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 t+ L8 V, b& Q- V; B! D0 V( U The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, \; H' x; @0 C  @% `$ E: ~* j2 e
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 ?+ F+ Z; n9 j, n+ Y" h
impose liquidation values.% A- Q: J% e! s" D. s
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 C# T1 ?0 z4 c/ h1 s, @* c! ~, w2 N  CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' `) R- Y' O9 u* u& p: a) p The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' h. n7 Q& k" |$ A# l  a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% }; @* W6 ^8 a- V$ M2 I$ Z

1 n+ g( o. X' t4 c# z) p6 vA look at credit markets
& `3 g1 g6 B( x, V5 i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) ^  E* Y  S9 d# b/ \$ R* JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& p8 C: F2 i$ P! G1 @- J0 | High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" A0 z( G7 h; N- Lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 h; t# s8 a' s. a- F& G2 W8 G
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* f3 g: E" g* }( z& U9 t
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 P! h  ~) w# [( D" w9 V7 G" R4 _, Q. MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) c. S9 p( N+ k4 k/ q4 M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ g3 Y2 E+ }) U) a" s" S: W
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 B3 w2 K3 w7 R9 o+ o+ W' h$ X
finding financing.$ {. T- t: [" Z! m
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 X# a5 N# w( y: J7 z; a) @were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ ]: g' e6 t# w9 b. W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 I" V/ V) _' H4 `0 I8 U: J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, ]/ {3 x* y$ ^5 R- Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 B+ G3 \" z0 V1 H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% ~# I9 a: L& \, m
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) [2 {; M, B% K- q1 |! b5 htoday.
. p8 h8 X7 C2 ~& r  V) E# Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- H' E4 q5 w- O. ?& {* zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 w) W# r1 C' W1 m) @7 v3 M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 r9 P# g; U4 _5 _9 K3 q0 rthe Greek default.9 Z- \( e( M( O% U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  I" f$ J6 @* ~% q  t: v6 c2 ]! ^
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default6 _( {9 q  s: j
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 O/ }! [& C/ Q
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 d7 d4 v! C( E% a& }
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 y4 y1 c# v7 pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 Z4 B* b3 b0 P! d) ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
8 B! a3 [1 Q5 p! G9 u" \4 D' z5 `+ x
6 o' D! H& G9 I, A" q) w9 aBeyond Greece
4 `% y' I/ V$ r$ K3 C9 | The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 d' ^  z, q+ o( K! ~+ Y9 R
but that was before Italy.4 O& C1 V- A1 y4 A5 I3 Z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 P) R: H9 f. z# W7 B* b
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ Y; [$ O: ~& KItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
% y5 R8 M/ z6 H6 f1 Z% p# m* h# y
Conclusion7 ]8 E0 @# a9 ~9 `5 @0 d. M
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-9-5 08:59 , Processed in 0.196798 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表