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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 R; w# b! J* r8 V* l5 G+ @
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Market Commentary
+ g$ |- I" I9 o3 w; aEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer7 Q# m6 E" Y8 G; g  ~% x* K
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
5 U' p7 Q1 f, X$ s( OSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
. i" c* _+ w) g# t1 z' z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# K6 g6 A6 @% V' E4 T2 H% ~5 oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 p8 O8 O9 h& i! |
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, u* c  |5 P2 U2 |adjustments.
7 ^- ]+ Z# u8 K: L This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" |5 `! b* N/ _" X$ N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.& [; E- a2 Y+ ^1 G* v2 A9 b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* \4 G% R, T6 u( I
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" h! F5 ]" p- Z6 v, N, N! L We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 G* V& T/ k' a9 Y6 O% _
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& f- ]" o8 J% C; |2 Y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 i$ q- ]; ^! f) H+ r4 {- s$ W6 S
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 S: y+ G) C) g- j. I+ g% [  Z( I: _+ S Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 ~* H* h5 }1 Z: H, [( S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, D8 ^' P# Y6 e' ^) ]
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 a' H2 E# E; }' \3 Y2 G' T" K The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 A/ X4 A1 L0 k4 J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. I- L) g7 I: o" R+ O3 {
impose liquidation values.: S0 h: {3 v% o9 _1 {$ j4 I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ }- P/ A2 W5 p) `5 E* H) Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; t$ Z1 E& `+ s/ k- k9 ` The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 o" Q& Z" d$ }4 `) g" h. f
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 v: l) Q. |! n" G* |

: z( J& K5 P. E/ j4 cA look at credit markets
% B+ W/ w/ w+ @3 K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 c5 v3 k/ j( t( j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 f! Z' a2 w8 `* B: U+ b+ i High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 c- v+ y/ s0 e) pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* e, C+ X2 O2 D- D2 C2 p) |# A! Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 L6 l# H" ?+ Z' q! i; Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% ?! S# j: o4 LCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# x2 V3 p6 N# Q9 w1 D3 A' }( e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* e3 k( U. q# ]- b, z- z% l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ \1 f9 [$ }  g$ p  U9 Q( `finding financing.
+ G# M" L/ K! e9 R" @+ t Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. k  d6 |- x( e: D& h/ z8 T6 T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 ~! u# K7 A* K" ~! Q; H; x Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 c# X. z, t! d* u5 I1 e0 R8 }
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: s2 a2 x  T( w# Z' n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& k0 y( x: t1 d" j; @8 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  c9 C; ~* }0 R+ N/ |, Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ f2 X0 [5 _6 v( C4 a6 d* ?today.% S) f/ Y6 d1 h; t) u3 B# B% z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% G% r* G& Y# \7 S7 ]9 M+ ?emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! X7 f# K8 i( m0 I5 U$ Z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 _8 l/ ?$ F! Tthe Greek default.
& W  p1 r! @; ~: U/ G As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( l; u( {. S8 J  n5 ^+ A7 s1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% x( {) |5 m- q: o" x. b5 H  ^2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 Y- r% n# C( B) M# X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) Y9 c1 d5 M7 E; |- f# N3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' A( _7 N, y2 H3 a1 c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. g5 @- p1 k( n1 P
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
: B- q6 Y+ V8 H2 y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( \# g$ S* F, ~" Q8 i0 qbut that was before Italy.
8 I  a' {" L' ]/ i It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( _5 Y5 U1 P: v2 n, e
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. D' f" B3 L* x7 S. h
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 t+ n2 _/ G, f# q
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Conclusion
( d6 Z% d$ L" e( o4 m: B5 V1 d; [: L We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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