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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# ~) ?0 C8 h8 O8 }+ y' w# Z3 ^
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Market Commentary/ H# m6 _+ L4 \
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 M6 T8 T; L3 r0 N- z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager; L0 u" ]5 X$ `
Signature Global Advisors3 n- }0 q( {; p" o( B
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Background remarks" Y+ N& {0 [7 Y7 ~$ p! @0 W* V- U- C
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# L, j. o9 O1 a( |3 N1 `( P2 F9 g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 k  p" h$ L/ p+ Q; J+ j4 G$ t- B5 C
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  `. G0 R2 X, |0 [* K4 [
adjustments.1 l, D/ r6 l: V) `- Y  D" ^+ e* ~
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% H: U4 h9 A- T, |  ]) M
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 |3 W4 {, ]$ W& W( @
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: r; Z% _5 r: O; I3 L' [5 I/ r
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! ^% G) T) A9 k, L' o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ A) p6 V/ C6 F+ Kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: c/ i& _, @4 O3 \# K Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 s$ Z6 T# q* A! v" y: M" W9 `4 y7 W
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* Z/ q  m' Z/ ^7 Y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 c& e9 \# M# H# K( o, {- S1 n9 I' V Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have" t1 l! K, `8 b  ?3 a
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* g; i4 O6 v, f3 ^/ Q& f7 Z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long4 B7 \4 [+ y. L% k# F% l
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 @* E& q' ~! z4 |9 g& Aimpose liquidation values.
7 F* o6 N. ^( }4 s% [2 b: T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ G  }2 j: A; P9 g# f/ V, R+ Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* G4 l: X7 O! D9 Z8 f The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. z4 q8 _0 |' {* i) [- t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
  Z3 C2 H5 e/ }( W; O) c Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, X- x) i2 U! m% D, @% b" L9 m2 y' WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* h% X; R, Q5 p! | High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" ^( ?% h; s- f; V
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ l/ i: C7 L$ G/ l% W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 P& D! p2 @5 A8 R& A# a3 qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ n# |0 Q1 ^2 Q0 d1 ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 U7 K2 e& z4 U  I' o' D0 Y$ E
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& [5 \8 ?7 y' h; @$ | Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* M' n) ~0 h" ^4 C$ N9 {
finding financing.
6 E6 V% r1 v% n, E8 ~& \& f. h# B; k Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 s: V/ r, m7 L% c# _# c4 s) C
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 [! y# s2 J( r; f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 O& i, v) @2 j/ |6 @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! c$ U  E+ X' m/ O! g: ?. Lgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: O" }2 @6 K; Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- \, h5 N" y% m! q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& ~- M( _: d  V$ ^- B0 Jtoday.- L* T) m# T8 ^) }9 p5 R7 e
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; C- T. t# n8 k3 pemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 {* y- a2 Q9 i( x$ A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ b+ ^% n. w+ g
the Greek default.
, n9 ^& T! d# ]9 g  ]1 l) K As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:3 R2 i. L# H4 }* w6 _
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 D% X, v+ }0 k) c. Y" i2 ?7 K  E
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- f' X! G+ O2 }; S4 d  I  hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' W# ]  [$ U% I$ |" G3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ H! ^( T/ r  c4 i7 s
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 B$ L( Q7 g" A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: A( c9 M+ b$ G5 P% n) d0 q  O9 Y& i/ f
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Beyond Greece
% c3 k# Y  p+ M( P5 O The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 j( y  _5 L4 [, I- @% W3 Y3 D
but that was before Italy.! k5 o0 s) X  J1 S( ~: {1 h
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 @8 S! _( M! r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 U2 C5 _6 y* v% R4 AItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 D. `# P/ K  P& X& S4 I
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Conclusion
; ?7 ?1 f$ R1 U* N9 s% k; c- v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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