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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ J2 ?* d* r, i! O
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Market Commentary
( _# D1 R8 U2 DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 P% G; F$ B$ T. b  A
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: M+ W) \* g$ X; vSignature Global Advisors
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  d1 ?. H! N) B0 a$ s: ]2 D; e
Background remarks
3 M6 p$ H" b; q( z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; f2 ?. K) X6 v" B9 A. e5 E) L  Qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; O/ m8 o5 L: h! h! W; Y
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  A: M2 _! E. W; h; madjustments.: [: v* m2 _4 C
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  e  Q( l. [  ?$ rsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; V, p/ }: o, E Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 v% _5 H1 C4 I+ ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  Z! j# y2 s/ l' ^: J% K
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) s* B+ M/ J) W, F8 A- ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 U0 G: ?, H7 S
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: ^( _$ ^: {; D  X: u! g, F! ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* X/ g# W7 G# ?1 \$ i& n, v Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ I, n. }, w8 }0 u: V1 B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ J6 Z$ Y6 L4 M3 n
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 l5 O6 x+ C* x, _; g& H- d: |
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' ?- d: E4 q) M, F) }- Y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 v) l  F5 Z; x$ n
impose liquidation values.3 ^$ k+ L& D: a3 W
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ P2 l9 t! M7 M$ f! k* A
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 K$ A2 E. e7 J5 B' l
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( H; s/ \& t! R/ M3 w! }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets% e3 d1 F+ x+ d" }4 x- V
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& y; p8 M9 t: X2 USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; ]% Y& S$ X3 Q- {- p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ l/ Z, f. {( s
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 A( Z# X" V4 i. `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) C  G# G, F9 L! I2 I& o9 D  y9 P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ a5 V, j" |2 I7 n- K3 z( f5 _9 O
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- i/ A" U/ X1 D% t& T7 Gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! K+ }& x1 W- C" ?5 y- j2 E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' K' l+ m. w6 J$ v# ]finding financing.
4 s/ G+ R- ~  h; E5 N% Q/ T Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 V  b) g, ?2 D3 z7 r$ K/ y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' S* Z9 r8 W# z; G0 X  N5 ~2 o
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 A- ^- v; U  x
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 P3 ?2 }! b1 o3 {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) U% ]: E. u' q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ G0 w5 _- q4 Z7 q1 z% n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; `& |: O# |/ p& U& w
today.2 O2 A7 v  i, e( P  `; H( s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% D% [" S* Q4 l. p. }1 r( temerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 Z5 V" j& a3 v) G, Z* S- [0 m
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% q. G! i5 L/ S) i, ~& mthe Greek default.
1 t; L: o6 B) q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  v8 F4 p# l  Q% J7 ~& z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
1 j6 b6 t" S0 c8 X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% ^2 p: p, L7 q. o3 g
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' F  m) n+ t4 I" d. X, |3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! L% ]3 s* o/ o4 Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years  _, v- s3 T& p8 {7 B" d( l
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- Y: N; S4 @% ?, T

+ o8 j; J% G$ \! k: ~- K0 |0 }" A% A5 {Beyond Greece$ G0 Y' c, X7 b  d; v% g
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% E5 b  [& \& f" w! U- @+ `5 mbut that was before Italy.
7 g& N  E+ c! o" V7 V It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. Z& V. m% W9 A# p
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the! `% t& K0 `$ E0 G! i" E( w
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion  @, S- s$ U0 J1 m5 R
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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