埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3511|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
4 k8 m  g, C3 j  V$ _7 J. O( z2 E. V
# h; a9 o, V8 M0 W- {% KMarket Commentary" C) m' d% ~: S" U/ H
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% l; o3 U& @. h4 P" R
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. Z0 x0 i+ F% N2 j+ `' V9 F" ^  {
Signature Global Advisors0 w! C( A" O5 A3 k4 A1 C
1 l1 i2 V9 @. d3 _" w. _: l; o
: X$ v) A. ^4 U+ _  x" l7 Z
Background remarks1 `2 n* v  C* N  i% F8 f
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( z- i8 W8 s( p( W0 P3 l
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; |2 D$ U/ n5 {( K& \/ k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 W" n) W, v1 O5 gadjustments.
8 x5 Z$ j7 H/ m5 j This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: @. U2 e; |4 J# _safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- j9 w, \. E4 b5 l
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ C. S8 ]3 Z- w+ Elessons to be learned from the frontrunners." h! H+ d& f# l4 P7 C
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 I2 s3 }4 f8 X4 g: ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% s+ v$ j4 y! L3 ~7 f; D
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, A3 h4 I  L; g. s) N( f" c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; B8 E* {' K; e8 c" I. D4 R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" A# R0 S. h9 ^# [  a5 j  u, f Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. a, H# L- b8 m
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 G  p& H8 ~* y# `! g+ X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. D2 |. i, F1 T% w
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 W0 |5 T' L5 a; Y8 _/ q
impose liquidation values.
- M: o$ ]: U' z  x In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 k# U' q8 E# B! I" m
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, B3 n! \6 ]8 c7 E* J3 a- _1 t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( N& j# K* F# A* y9 @* }+ A  tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
* }& @7 H+ ~. q* k" K
; Y: K7 W; P" U0 T" E3 C. r: QA look at credit markets. N9 d* ^+ u' A  h. j' r
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( F3 k8 g) {8 q& ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! m2 l/ g3 r0 Q& U High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ ]+ X3 s1 S& Lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# `6 C- G! p  s. E* r/ Y! I
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' |6 S# h3 Z) ?: d8 y* Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' i9 j  S0 R8 ~( ^5 D- T9 C; f5 i
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 f% @. W  `* ~7 x) `. F9 H9 Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.; I5 t) K, H* g2 W+ R
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 E( D8 _' g8 h' m* w, |- t$ y
finding financing." X+ J8 R. \8 A8 ?8 {( p+ r& U
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 ]; z0 @+ C$ c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  I' Y! E0 V1 {, }& z% f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 f& g: D% _3 ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. T1 O4 R/ c) n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% B$ y0 j5 }- e* l6 a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' [1 X* ]5 a% O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! v  G9 p1 p5 q4 G, o3 ?( k' dtoday.
! C! m$ E6 u3 n  B" @ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 U1 q; G3 z- z+ v0 h
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 f& X5 C" N! f Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; h* ]0 Z9 _. W' r% `# r7 O; P
the Greek default.# r9 q2 J: K0 P' E( m+ }
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ Q8 q9 _$ J" v7 ^" h6 x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 {: N9 U8 O4 c; d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 X$ t& E) \+ Z% U4 B5 y+ `
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& p/ h$ B2 s0 ^$ {$ E6 J/ f5 V3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 P9 C# X" Q) \" dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% C) A5 Y' P( |7 ~4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
( d* M. I  _6 v+ b# z( {. v3 N/ e
Beyond Greece* y- i. w# s5 o/ X' x1 X
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 G; {  A4 \" u
but that was before Italy.  Y8 _" i$ X8 G( y& d
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 c1 t9 `* a4 F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 Q' ~9 a7 r$ t: x! B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
9 n2 t. e8 o/ u! ]
4 d7 _! ]+ h/ f" Q0 ~7 X: XConclusion$ n: V0 `2 {' a6 \0 n' Y* q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-7-23 07:12 , Processed in 0.123132 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表