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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 M4 t2 V" P) d

7 B# d; v3 C8 [$ \Market Commentary
( p9 U9 n* b# I( L( j, l3 U: wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( S8 _- h0 W  r0 T* CJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
( k5 B2 A! }* Y5 z# B$ cSignature Global Advisors
2 n5 ~9 i2 N( q3 a1 o
/ T2 \3 y3 m( i6 Z
! E2 u% P  E3 @( c4 U, G. q3 Y8 `Background remarks
3 H; E. o/ L4 w1 f5 S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  X' }- I4 V$ O" ]+ `+ \7 fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 b) Q  G$ |& _: ~ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  l& W6 h7 T  F7 c1 E4 J. z; }
adjustments.  y( }8 M$ Z; \" o- g
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! s# L2 A: o% d" Z9 x+ {0 e
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( O5 X- A& f+ W
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, |! u! k$ o7 C- u* Z6 X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* w: p3 ?& R4 _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" Z+ P0 s& t5 ?; g  Badjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 g: F: d" b- c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; b( c( Y. u+ ?  T: X* _3 Xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  u. m8 J; X/ r% A/ S+ w# b: o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- Y2 U6 r, f  R& Y1 C! j Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 t& K9 g( V* p$ S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! L3 r' s# z8 h/ m& V1 u The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 y. B2 f( \$ p
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 g3 i( U6 i% {- g4 p2 I
impose liquidation values.0 w* q+ e1 W% S( h% u! b8 r
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In: J; Q+ I$ [" _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, a" L$ a; ]" k" | The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& p: ~" B- e  |" u0 u, I) F
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
* B! a3 ^( @) X
" o5 I2 d( L/ q. p" q" iA look at credit markets
! }8 x( e" i# o/ Z, z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, D- ]1 q2 ?- I. c7 |5 a; i( v& P! c$ L
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 m. U: U9 |  i/ b3 Y, ]
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 l/ i  o3 h  u; i8 ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, V2 Q& ?9 L* h% \4 M  q3 a9 ?4 J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 K: P  r9 |/ r: h$ A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( q, q5 s* T- R. {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 p+ G: r7 `% Z% [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% w% d$ P1 ~3 f& A! W3 o. |) g7 Q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 x9 c* g. a7 j; g7 \  z* A4 }
finding financing.
7 g8 }' t3 n# h( J" G, D Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. e' a  T; N6 g% p+ m  u+ owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; S. z+ l3 M$ |4 P Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ n8 q; b! ~2 I0 F  y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. c' `- Z* D8 ?2 Y" K$ h; T5 X' r0 O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: Z/ V8 g( V" [9 t. Y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 }3 `. m, D7 r9 J7 C) P9 n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 U( q/ b6 f3 c7 Xtoday." Q9 g3 A0 D) [; h+ A
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& n/ C6 x, |9 [/ y: Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 }3 f- ]0 O5 C" Q' ^
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for& a: |4 b. ?9 ^* ^3 E* C
the Greek default.4 o, s: _9 R8 ^0 N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& c9 K7 K+ F: {+ U, D
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' [$ c) K0 K! j2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* s3 c/ W# S+ ^1 l' j: @' Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 `! R. q9 M& k" |' h3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" U3 W( W, s8 O$ n2 qbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 j  f5 A, k3 x8 l$ N
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
5 r% M" C, Y1 U. J) B' o
+ Y7 b$ C3 E  T3 ^Beyond Greece
& P5 X: i8 [* `2 t( _/ e/ S The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& _# X4 L6 Q/ ^6 M5 C4 A2 A( Obut that was before Italy.
% L. r! j- N0 ^! c+ ]- q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& T+ U3 ]7 Y$ y  ~' j! R! }9 _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* _2 Y" N9 k" t: W  p% NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
( N2 k7 t1 b: ~+ Z5 R0 E* a. v2 Y, p& L( @" K' h4 m; a+ j
Conclusion3 y4 \; {; G2 k" @
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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