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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation( S; ]5 w( K! k% q. J: M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; B; A1 `9 Z: T% C$ d6 C
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- e/ e9 K' \ f' ~6 X: `impose liquidation values.
- v. w) L9 n! M N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" F; i7 x, j/ B4 P6 K% K+ ]* F
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# |& k- d2 ?2 }* a4 ^
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 }1 Z- t0 d# B N$ Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; m5 F4 n: P7 E" i/ ^
d# |! {, N7 R! E6 R
A look at credit markets
! v' c, b" I4 _' R$ g% R0 c& A! T$ \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 w0 n$ Z" C, v; o$ OSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 |- A0 p' V* c9 A/ f& N7 g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( L/ v" n) r; s2 i, D+ D* i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% m$ K. t6 N8 X3 G) F, Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% H. b. ~" t0 [5 P2 v4 a" Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 ~: c) O0 f1 b9 t; t) `+ MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: {% g% |8 X2 m6 gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& X0 [8 }9 H8 g6 G
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" f: L7 H1 [) q+ m9 x- k* ?
finding financing.! t" k$ B2 u* \3 t
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
o' G3 u X, x x$ cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; j, L7 _. j1 A* W* o8 c" t Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 e) j8 l" @ r7 G$ v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 P) ~/ L9 v: t/ I" W2 F# Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 C3 d/ i. G+ M% Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) `" i# u6 l/ _* T* b# r. J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 P8 o# |: l2 ^# d. I
today.* g F M# c8 n
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( J+ C* E5 x+ W/ k
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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