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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
5 l' r: I5 _0 ^5 b6 S7 Y, s1 R+ V$ [4 M6 H8 f: h: R
Market Commentary$ S" X0 U% F3 g; a$ m
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- ?1 G8 x5 X" @1 g' M0 y) tJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 B1 u  x/ q7 e4 d' `3 v7 G) v
Signature Global Advisors
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% R, b; h% n4 V+ {- m; P
* h2 `) }4 e# e6 fBackground remarks0 P; a6 f+ G( ?- y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ d( @8 c, y- f  E- b1 E
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: J; @7 [. G7 b) H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  ?9 x5 E' a6 M8 K1 v) z2 Sadjustments.
* Y% X, R; _1 ~% c; d! b8 g5 ^ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 o+ G9 k1 F! @1 Z1 V1 j: K
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ N8 j7 W- y) n* u+ |) F Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; U! I; @: o) u( Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* U1 |" C+ h' r& h& z: @! F- A
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( \8 U4 d9 I) K0 n$ F7 ~. sadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. }; U3 C: _# h9 N
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& G2 C/ A5 w' B
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 \7 A- ]7 ~7 Y0 e
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" N3 D3 Z0 z7 R: v Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. U$ ?7 I; {1 k! ?$ `8 f% Y, m
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 Y8 C# U7 m9 v6 r- w7 J$ v8 x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ U3 M3 D3 o1 ~$ r' K' e
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 U% K0 X& i! ^( _  q9 O" Q
impose liquidation values.
' Y6 S) X- |; ?6 b/ ^: o In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" ?. `- }& c- R5 H6 a, s3 R' G  j, GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% e$ ~( l2 ]8 z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  V. \$ l, R/ Y3 Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 E# L2 r2 P1 X- Q( q
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A look at credit markets
, a4 N6 z! @! G6 b+ F4 O Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# l. O- Z( M9 n( Q: w+ {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 p$ h" J* w9 d2 n1 b- e High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( m5 Q7 N/ m; Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% T! P- D/ Z; ]+ `0 ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ o8 o7 c: z/ g( x/ i: eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ C, B- O! p1 f/ H
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 U+ S2 w4 M3 q( \, K5 F8 D
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 m3 q  X! E! P  b4 l) P& M  { Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( h, C  z9 a& B. Afinding financing.
1 |9 G6 _8 J" I+ Y8 K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# C, @! ^: a; C0 _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 S+ }* E, ?& W, z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) @3 U: ~/ o5 m: X4 s- ^8 [
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 a! V+ B8 j+ X& u% d* c/ ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 q, N( [+ L# K' v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( g" H: H' N9 K, P3 H+ g European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 @. L" N" R, W
today.
8 \% c& z3 v" Y4 u: i- I2 K Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) V7 C$ k5 ~3 S; p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, D0 c7 b1 ]6 I Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: t, d' e4 |1 K- {2 t2 _' wthe Greek default.2 a9 d  k4 g+ y. N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 Y/ K! w& C9 Z. R5 E& H
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& U- b' m- [; Z! n) ?" E" y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. L1 ~. p  y: O+ R* k4 ^
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* n6 c2 c8 @3 @7 W# S1 _, `& I" E3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 l2 F( v7 l9 B) Wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* g4 _* u9 e: Z  ?4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece5 Y( n) f! R- x- t* G
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; t% B1 d& S- r- I& Ybut that was before Italy.! @8 i6 Q( [. l# \6 ]: d3 p8 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
6 N; u# I8 C) s6 T% ]/ O: w2 n It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the" K: k. @8 v  {6 o, K8 I" c) ~; _# A' T
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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2 i* a. A) O+ w6 c" h; GConclusion
3 }( a+ [9 I( n6 c4 P$ P/ U We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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