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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( p1 w" Y, Z9 O9 ~

/ `% {) G+ c; |+ l7 J  l4 v- y4 `) QMarket Commentary6 ]( T# e5 ?" {: n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- L) n% |/ I( w7 Y5 M0 KJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: e3 c$ F* I4 k8 rSignature Global Advisors
0 ]/ f! C5 Z# t. p2 I
) T- ^$ S9 }5 O, O) V$ f, u6 b* X2 m2 Q2 R
Background remarks
  R' f# B; Y" c0 S5 l9 w# W3 Y, J) w Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 k/ U" L. R9 ^; V" e9 N3 V' Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 |) E% W& H- c* Q! I- p3 e
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" b3 z3 R! ?; `  R% e7 A
adjustments.
! Y, |8 c+ A- ?) z- P# \$ r$ I This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* F% ]1 |+ C/ {8 G9 fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." b5 B1 R. y" q  ~0 O6 D$ l
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 i- b; Y4 }& v5 W) @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ R- q1 s* x% Z  S( `1 ?
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  m% i. E) A# G) d& v( hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& F' U: K) W) M) ~, _0 G Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# B2 M+ t( W0 Y$ g/ F: V3 ^- ~8 p3 Oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 J+ s7 [4 C0 @' d Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 Q: x4 D* h1 x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# o8 R4 x9 Y$ A# u- e* \reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation7 B; y) a. N: J
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' Y8 U% G) l# T8 s
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' u7 N- u( u5 \7 K# Q
impose liquidation values.1 v8 K  K) n" N1 P/ W2 ~. e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 ]# _3 s5 [* f! ]- D. aAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) s! v1 F+ B& q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 P7 E, S! b( v% `& k
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets, B; k, B$ r/ J9 G- r" ^1 \
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- f' _" b7 `. n  b2 e5 v* F9 rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.' \" e! B, g3 v) r3 N( `6 {
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) ?) m, A3 T5 o$ R8 Q. w; Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 h$ M4 u: D5 b+ ^4 j$ D5 Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 M9 n+ U/ _1 Y7 O3 u' ^access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' ^: V; S# r$ }% S8 a5 C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 g9 t+ r8 ^9 [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. E5 k  x! g' Q7 q/ I+ [+ u2 n  H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, j$ i. U# ?% m9 \
finding financing.
: a) L) C) i2 }1 O1 E. M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ V* C* b* g# \- {were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: n6 l: K, N( S6 N. B! |4 G7 e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 i. P  e% `" h
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ s1 Q4 V; }/ s  l; E8 o% F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 |$ E5 M. E) C' F+ q% E: T. e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: G( F  o! O7 P7 u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 U$ |/ `: g9 \" Etoday.
% y% R! x( a$ d. {+ ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 }% z- c8 l  c# D& T" p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 [8 Y( P) q7 }& m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) l2 d4 P: J6 y! z( k: Tthe Greek default.1 r% p( G  O' ?: D/ _
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; p7 W3 }: [# X8 H
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 Q' R% W  c1 l! R1 W; {1 P- i
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ H8 N* k# \$ r  Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.( O' @$ i5 h' a# f
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 c4 N0 Q' e1 j9 j* Fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 g. {' O3 x7 T" [# W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
, L; W2 F1 u  C/ ]3 {- g% B2 s) r. Q9 j7 J5 U% y7 E7 B
Beyond Greece
( C% ?" ]0 R$ w4 h The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ Y/ e) P3 H1 T! i; {% y! K7 Y
but that was before Italy.
0 _+ K6 ?- A; F5 J0 Z& h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
3 h* O( ]; o, k4 H8 t$ M It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; T" E& O) N' P6 M9 q  c$ A* n/ WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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5 i  c0 E- o1 T) H: @* y* SConclusion
  W! [) s/ j# b2 h1 N1 |7 e We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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