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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
9 s; }. [7 y! W7 [
% `/ W* @8 a; ^# ZMarket Commentary* g. ]- b* q4 j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: f3 g' g. T( P4 b
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  R) {% Y# e& L5 qSignature Global Advisors' \, D/ s, P( N. D

8 a, K+ p( q4 O" [5 {) s: Z1 t7 X$ v- P
Background remarks
0 ^# C1 a+ k# d3 U" }6 u+ u+ D; v- m Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& g! {7 w9 j1 h, y3 r( M) H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ E7 H' B3 ?" s9 U: D
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) Y5 D$ R/ W' P' C
adjustments.
; m) Y# R0 V7 t8 Y2 d8 C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 d, R# T' u7 V3 u* R( O
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 E5 h) X) o5 v) O- P' ` Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# y* `/ c2 [1 k  S/ s6 wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" h1 A" K( C/ L% A# U0 C4 t. u We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" y$ Q6 V0 i  zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 @  g9 |; k$ n' M$ \- Y/ M* C# k
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
  Q. A% g$ k+ K, w* D/ P% s( z) Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
% n* i4 r- ]$ T0 T Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 i4 L1 h+ s6 X) v- `7 } Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) U. s, Z6 E6 w; i) a
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# v5 j9 T$ G. }2 x8 E9 y  v
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, n7 o. b. v/ X) e
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: w8 [! T, n4 Q# Z, u
impose liquidation values.  {; W, v- Y3 b# `# ]5 y( a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. D+ c1 G6 l7 i" hAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# t1 N& f* B4 N9 h; r
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 g% V) }# p; f* O: ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  c$ l6 `: c5 y: M, K

2 j  q$ X+ H8 K& HA look at credit markets- m+ J- W$ H3 x/ d2 a
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 E% Q/ z1 q% J- g0 u" F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ }4 Y* J2 \  a' S* A$ {
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" y( k! I" E5 n0 ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: W  a2 [! B& q+ M6 l2 h) M8 D7 t" h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 `) [6 y7 ^% k/ E3 }0 W4 f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ M- p' p( O- C& N* o! d% w/ }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* U$ g9 e+ w* p* npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ G2 k, y$ e' b; E" h  U# q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: u$ Q# [7 c3 ~. I; `
finding financing.
+ a9 A, b2 ]4 `& R, w0 ? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% G& L' [9 `7 y  T6 ]were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 \3 z  k8 `4 Y& b4 ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 X! l+ F& g0 {- `is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 O* v% t: H. c. O: O! D2 R* b, igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- S+ o$ {0 u. z9 y  ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) P* D+ h6 _+ B9 J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& ^3 J4 ~+ Z) r) v( s8 K% \
today.' s( V3 m/ S# s& H9 J
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. k2 B) [; {0 v( V# Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
: u! b8 N9 l, B2 ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! V  a" ?1 d' K, q/ L7 P# \
the Greek default.' M+ ?! ~4 _, D
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( C! ^0 R: O/ Q& K. \7 Y. z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 `2 D$ h% W& K% u
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 B: d# B- d; q6 Ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 o9 E* t: @* |- U9 c  M
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 e; p. X$ ~5 K
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 w: M' i7 m# O$ j" `/ \6 A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
4 O+ E2 d& s. z1 n1 J! u3 g The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! t/ {" L. C; C6 c9 G% ebut that was before Italy.
( p1 w) F& W# ]7 o2 J+ ], H6 R It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" E9 P' U6 D* t$ ^9 q& @2 _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# `$ X$ P% [3 C+ ~2 R% Q7 k" z* ?7 |Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
$ y$ S0 O# f: x8 a, z0 b) \
" Y) C. c) v8 ]9 P2 x# FConclusion" I% n# J% F+ t5 ?2 e
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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