埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2630|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
* U& g. y+ Y6 s  ~: c! j
+ u3 k  Q* Z, VMarket Commentary
: {# f6 J5 h  m9 A  {8 u' GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 }/ d6 A$ J+ a
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 \* S0 ?5 z9 N8 b0 L2 K" VSignature Global Advisors% S6 {! i" H1 _4 e
9 s" F9 s- M! q4 W3 o  o
) Q: _" g8 H0 f! {+ f
Background remarks+ `! Y1 R$ P) o2 t  X8 f; A# V3 k, `
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, M* v6 n8 \( d5 cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 ~3 ^- Y; Q' H1 A
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 m0 r1 _6 J  R* q
adjustments.- @/ x7 r- U9 W0 s+ x4 O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 D+ r; ]. _2 @4 l7 K- Isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  C9 F! a1 _$ H" q. y  ^2 Z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 _- C0 k" F2 m7 V4 C2 ]; \
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" b  G+ q& v. F, t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
! L$ B; J7 h" D/ e% w* K- N$ n2 S) q) Yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ c* {' E1 [& b5 Z9 I" w5 } Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ D9 o) r" I5 M$ Q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. t) o4 p6 A/ Q% q Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; n2 \! x* T5 N: |; A/ L% u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. V* U1 P: k5 d* L+ x# R
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 c# _8 E6 f6 C: b5 S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 d# G- y1 h5 j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. R6 w- z8 G) G
impose liquidation values.
- J6 W; t4 N( \5 }) Q3 ~2 j In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' t) i- e7 U0 h: ~August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ f( `4 @* u9 z5 z. c6 F$ A The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' W6 h  ~: _: C+ }7 b9 C9 ]scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' o9 ]3 @% p# J* g( ^" X

6 p7 \9 B0 @/ k! RA look at credit markets
. _( Y( E9 _: j) k" D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 z3 D& S) X+ f+ ?/ A- ZSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; U* Q& O, H( F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 m5 q" L$ Q& V6 c& O8 T# A9 @
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 W7 m" w' H3 ^% a* x
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 W* {3 {# C' z7 ?! ]
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 q) U+ [! q$ j' p3 O& x$ E, eCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& P# d) Y9 F: Zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 K- s  Q0 y' y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# l. v5 t, R0 r6 `
finding financing.
* x5 {: R" a) h6 h8 Y3 q1 T4 v Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- m+ {9 O- {6 ?7 {$ l
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ ?4 r# O$ q$ R- O" D, P  [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 s0 z; P4 n3 i* B3 N' X; cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" ^3 _& p9 p9 w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 M" X5 D* h; Z$ A8 m& Y1 y: d) [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  C/ {' M# C+ }7 E' P  i- W European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. N9 t5 h$ A6 l) G! {# l
today.
0 z3 w3 G* j9 A- l" |; t Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! t4 s/ V2 H2 kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% Y5 z( E- ^7 Q& d) a! y7 |; E Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ Y6 q5 _% V- h/ o: j! p+ {
the Greek default.
9 y% D, r3 j) `5 ~) w( [* o8 _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
+ M9 m( _/ o! w& \* j1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ @4 x+ p- `5 a/ Y0 U
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: T% l1 S/ |; r6 V) J, ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 _+ `% O: V0 }$ Z% R5 R/ Z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ U# V0 }. \7 {, P  T9 z9 m$ j9 e
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ w) m9 x# }) N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
' P3 w. V4 ]2 S8 U5 U& o; f: ^! z, H7 E
$ t, B( t1 q/ |- TBeyond Greece
( B" q# Y3 y8 l) Q1 E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 I0 g* s1 M0 i; |( m/ F' Q9 ?) e7 Y
but that was before Italy.
2 Y8 }4 K7 Y3 m" V0 ]0 V It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 v  Z8 m6 O0 Y# C$ U
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 x& Q+ X/ Y7 \( LItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 c1 x7 I* q( Q! p) h0 h

; a% _. U% }5 ~7 c: s. c/ aConclusion' f5 K9 U3 n6 ~* n
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-23 16:58 , Processed in 0.145953 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表