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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
0 Q0 U' t2 o& C; c; n: ?: A/ I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% Y7 ]$ w- E1 g+ [( W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# v% K: m1 v% ^$ m. Vimpose liquidation values.) Z6 e. r' Z3 N1 p. {8 g# N
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 N3 B, N& g2 `3 }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' r( S! d' B" c1 O9 u* B The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) @9 E+ V5 P8 b) ?9 @0 R2 ]6 e4 Hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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& S9 W7 \" u" J5 e/ p- YA look at credit markets. ~: Q5 d2 ]- ?: w: o
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in T5 n4 p8 v& P9 @
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* N& ]% x8 }5 C2 X; _- U# n. ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ {7 a" E: c2 }! t+ hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ O; K2 P' _9 ]2 w4 w9 f6 b; b# z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 A! O; G3 m( B1 Q8 daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 l* N1 K1 d+ U9 F1 W/ CCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% u' k$ {8 \" X& n/ n/ ^3 A
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; z6 |4 d* E# ]3 i Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble J# W% U0 U. m8 n) a& C# s5 c0 z
finding financing.
# L7 L* M" v6 g6 w5 |+ V Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! a5 @; j0 o8 W! f, B' g2 Q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) X! i, L/ Z( [5 u2 i+ { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ L2 p, o& y+ f+ V, Y5 b$ Z/ p! a
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, J8 W: Y0 ~( J( V* O% q0 \+ i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ F/ w2 a( e1 Y+ ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 p3 j. H9 `% |0 }9 ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& ]+ [& g* R9 M) Jtoday.% E/ y3 `3 O# r# G z2 d" w7 H
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 y" k2 @4 `) ]/ x& E" V
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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