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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation, t) N* l3 G+ w) p$ E( @3 z( w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" _2 S; ~) R* S6 q N" ~" Fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; m. l% e; _# S5 A: ~' Uimpose liquidation values.5 D9 x. H+ `2 Z/ q/ }5 C8 d
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 }* F8 S- P1 l7 fAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- f/ i/ {% n. F: o/ s- C4 W
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" ^9 e# ^9 F! X, o2 W& M7 C8 R2 gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." j' Y% _, I' C
+ c* d) }: {2 F* S$ f# \A look at credit markets
) y& t r$ I1 y& ]: Q$ n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
a% z: y; X. [September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 e4 H& Q# E' Y: R* Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! t# Z9 L4 \# {. Y4 P
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" y# y& k" f. P! \/ C( X
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, k4 f; w# W. S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. i' W9 F; {9 {9 L6 T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# U) x" Z7 P! O* R/ Z' upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% @. b, }" @3 ]+ h1 F. X Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! d" y: ~6 R7 d6 q$ _
finding financing.' T$ j& e7 f* f9 G
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 \& ]" ]" l: t2 |were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ g7 n- A5 @/ {; R
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 L6 V' C8 x" V: R' _6 p
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( a, `( V, x* }, }+ N# O1 v g: r
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) A! F, _+ L* q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ o' D5 X& p3 |) f: _0 M# S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 g; H& w* C$ v" c5 q% C1 qtoday.% Q% E, C4 H/ A. N
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 p4 I# G. A t
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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