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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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, J/ C0 S% G, x$ cMarket Commentary
0 n2 K* z3 {8 K: ]' eEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' i8 d3 p& ^' N, G8 ]/ g  U/ h) f! F
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 W1 n7 E* w! a# ]Signature Global Advisors
5 A+ Y; `$ o% k& e, r; v
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Background remarks
/ C) |: K2 T+ ?% C# A3 W8 P Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 b4 H, D3 j6 C( o$ Kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 T8 ?6 M, C8 V! u Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ ]5 t% X, F" [. i$ ]; J; C, N
adjustments.: V  g5 ~$ `. j7 z5 d  p7 {( D
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, C& Q3 J8 U* y+ q, {
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" v4 H; j7 L. U& P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are" Y; C9 f+ x% v+ {- v0 f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% z3 C& R7 d, Y% G: G. {
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) R) L: a, j' ^6 ]7 }, s! G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 z" E8 i+ a& y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' C( k* }; k) }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' t! F5 g; Y- w4 n1 ^. K$ u7 w Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  J2 ~) h. t* v. {% i1 T: L# q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 k$ E' L4 [4 areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  D/ p# B- p1 E& t3 p' U The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% C& i: T; W9 T' m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 w; A$ M2 \6 vimpose liquidation values.0 P( u3 C( w& u9 h- k
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 f3 m" }6 Q; f" T3 bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 x, A1 b4 u$ b- z# X3 x
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! n; m' L4 G7 ^/ c  @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 I$ Y& k( s* T0 f7 C3 k. CA look at credit markets
$ V) D( A5 U' {2 S3 ?7 M; E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: p( B1 K0 ^! wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* R( _/ u) Q  G7 K  n3 F4 A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' ?8 B+ B+ m9 U8 R$ l: R9 }; N
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! m7 H* W8 v* W1 N# L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' i  T: i; ]0 u8 [0 ?% Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 @- I5 T& L- S" f. ?/ W) }) p
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 v! Z8 x" \2 J8 Q& d! o
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) l: b% B6 [6 Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, N! Z8 a% w) U, L! R7 ~$ y7 i- ^; bfinding financing.
0 q' c7 G& ]4 G" R, l5 p Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 t' v' k. F8 J, q) l  h; [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., `% c, E9 U/ H" j$ j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ U+ p9 L" \5 `9 L$ E! w) p+ F1 o* U( Cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ n1 u9 C& r2 J2 v8 B$ W& G. q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" ^; Y# r. ]% S4 n8 Tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 w" l7 i% ~/ H% G, m1 `; P; L2 C& { European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" J) \! Z* f$ M0 v! \7 Ntoday.. H) F0 P- k3 z: F% S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 S" I5 Z9 C2 ~. B- |0 u- xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& J" S, @8 r1 }* G Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" }- {- P" R- E9 lthe Greek default.
& m( Q- T( d- i' Z5 x* r; P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' l$ R: C) Z2 d+ W: d5 U( v4 J
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 e& m5 h- l8 ^% G% a! L, |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ V' V- }2 L& _" V3 g: i3 X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 @. E/ b: C8 Y8 J* b! E
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- I) c, L7 |- v4 V  q3 a# _  B# G7 B
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 R/ {" f3 s- B  ^( X* f" C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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6 K4 v' X! t. b- N( tBeyond Greece
2 U! z; _8 v9 [- n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& d, y0 @1 q( N/ J; b- S
but that was before Italy.( d+ v! B# I: w% R& D' L& V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 B- y+ @% A3 ]7 Q; K It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* r9 a& P5 q2 U2 `3 P1 [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% ?& l5 T1 A! g8 r4 A4 k' m# }

8 |! F2 H& y/ U/ `8 Q, X' H5 LConclusion
$ p8 C. [, u. L( x" p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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