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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 @$ J: U7 B/ X3 [8 R3 {# \: q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- ?1 e$ W- P% Q. @+ l. K
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 r4 @ [& x% z9 `- T
impose liquidation values.
0 X6 K% B6 K3 p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In H, i- f# Q# a" w! t
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' h* p" P) M: G/ h- U+ B \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! W: U% D! e ~. u
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( Q9 `1 L# `' q: x* E/ c
+ [; @1 O: Z' Z XA look at credit markets
) b9 L7 M5 q) A; d: \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* Q# X* H; t3 B+ ?5 x
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! N8 v3 T8 G7 e% N6 z; h! M
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 Z: V$ `/ [' \6 X8 t! z: athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ Q1 G+ t" B+ h% k5 e7 s) f Jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 a. ^1 P. l) _( n; w' u6 Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 T1 @0 A7 _0 t9 j9 w6 A% aCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ j- s: `% t" ~% a; xpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 @- n! D& v) Z. f. H7 e7 j; \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 C: W0 Q0 b7 t2 v" n5 jfinding financing.
8 o! i) S& W# T/ T2 z& _ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! f. g2 h- J7 S3 Q1 O3 E" Q; ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 p+ I+ c; M9 _, k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 w5 K- D, k! wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( v& ]" z* o4 Q0 B8 U4 o2 y0 U
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' y! H- c9 ^) ? C2 S9 ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ X# A6 s0 w( o9 `7 w
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. m+ W. W: o2 ]; j3 Utoday.
( A& e+ j7 q# z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) _. G9 }& X# @9 ^) B
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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