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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。0 r# V6 J' E) J% [) j& H$ H; C

4 W; s9 M! s) r3 cMarket Commentary0 e! [* w) }* y6 [6 z( k& Y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" K: p+ E) ^% r: @& y; W5 b( H
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 W! O6 y! c& }) W7 b- wSignature Global Advisors
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. s4 E. u4 S& F5 K) nBackground remarks" X0 E1 }. s' F6 q& u  C# j: o+ N
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( k3 i* H* G' |0 J6 @3 C* Y1 R! las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- q# Z, g! z: ^# Z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 T7 P1 _7 P! H1 J  G
adjustments.
( C* W1 _% U! o! w0 s2 p5 E! W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( ]" W& @! F. H( a5 @9 `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. O0 ~9 a- G. r7 I' p% k Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" k- z* ?6 H$ G5 ^8 K* {lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." y& Z5 x+ G# p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: ^% k! d4 W7 S3 i$ \
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& G6 t3 p5 h3 E9 j
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 E* n4 c$ {/ J$ p; tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! o. r2 X8 o% @8 U  R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
: B/ m' e2 A& d( S$ t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 y; g% N5 q8 r: a. N/ rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% |. C2 a* L" R2 C* K. L$ C: U The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 n/ h" H/ Q* K6 l9 n" W) W" D/ bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, K9 b% H" Q6 b9 ]& l3 ?7 vimpose liquidation values.4 R- ]: G; k' J. i
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ P6 \0 N3 G* |, rAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* T) \( q& X0 D3 Z0 Q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* ]* d* W+ F1 ?: J0 T0 E6 u: Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
( z: g0 M4 {& Y6 @/ N* h2 r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 m1 D* i1 M, X. ^/ G8 ^7 ?! a$ U! `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 w+ X, }$ a5 J0 ~9 Q( U* D
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 X6 K% P* J/ C. vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 H0 m2 h" C$ K- r% C7 ~& M" pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" a/ Q; S5 c  z- E
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" p. I+ d9 ~1 N1 D& I0 fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; r' \, ^8 X, h8 z  b' Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 G1 F  E7 V, d3 V, q  }7 w$ B, _' }! D Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. I* }) v' y8 G; }/ Q- X0 m( [finding financing.  M. X4 E6 ~7 t3 B. O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. @0 T# A6 O' @: e$ t
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 s; L; ~, i9 N) C4 l- ^" H+ w Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  V1 Y5 i  A. K6 ?% gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ _3 }9 ]2 r0 m! r" \- M1 [5 V0 tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# F( i, E, L3 q* e7 s9 o
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ i( k4 \: B1 s4 h  i5 h. a' E( c( }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" d9 c( E. }$ I/ wtoday.
* G. [. l1 a9 V9 u% _; i" E' M& x Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  [0 G9 O( J, o6 U
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ q) W2 @0 f7 f# t4 I! k Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 \) D4 j' p# b  g8 lthe Greek default.7 }5 H. ^9 Q$ a
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( R% e8 r6 Z% |, f: V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) C* q" I) d7 ?) t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& @0 g" d" p/ k  i  Vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( A% E  c1 i( T6 a( X; S. K3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
0 H9 z7 T' z7 |9 z1 Pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* W: p1 G" I- `: K" I8 S5 o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% @$ @' k  b3 i

+ R5 i4 b3 d' @6 O" v7 H: tBeyond Greece  u4 z+ W6 b7 L* o, r
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 \7 g( b+ x" t  [! g  g  n4 @
but that was before Italy.0 X5 L. q" w( V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% Y0 S/ k) r; _$ ^: K It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& _* n2 g9 z7 i- H9 ?Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 W: e0 ^# k  Y, `) k6 H
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Conclusion
4 e' B7 s& E- w1 m' X) n) _! ? We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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