埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3323|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
9 |, w  A; E: F3 e4 X. `* O6 |- S% u" p
Market Commentary  `, `4 P4 [' i+ ]' @4 y* p8 X
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% j5 n3 O" N! A5 k$ e, O, D* j8 [
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager; L: W7 x( M. e* x3 N/ E* b# e
Signature Global Advisors1 ^5 T1 V6 K$ S3 t2 a- ~- M

+ D" X4 y1 n1 d$ i% Z, V6 H( r' B. y3 L" s5 y7 u* B" X
Background remarks
' T" Z/ y) d. E) |' Y3 L- K Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; F6 p9 k  E0 Q" f, k: e+ Oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 m. f9 q! S7 I! a' N% \ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 `' ?1 k, F6 h4 z* L8 ~- cadjustments.
/ c' [  s, z/ s5 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! p  L! Y" Q; H; G0 x' Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ y6 O. z" M+ U Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- {, [1 N/ l1 F. Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; u0 N; P& ]. ]$ W+ i' ^1 H3 ] We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ w0 d, c1 @' ^9 N. p
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 [- K+ U  P# O$ b  |  g
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 m2 R) v3 y9 u: ^3 i+ A$ k1 _quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! E: f1 ]+ O& P Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( e" v7 ]" o1 y+ Z) y1 y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& G/ o( W; ^( Z6 ^
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( E/ \( h6 Q! M* ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; ]4 R, ]' D; B' k* F. Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# z" D8 L9 |6 e6 h+ T+ A
impose liquidation values.* I; S5 y) {7 q. O  ?: n9 k
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% o& s0 B- Q# \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' ~( X3 p7 ~$ N" p) k4 I
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 s- W) k* i( T0 f7 a0 l$ c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
, @" Z* e2 J+ ^# K/ Z2 \8 z, C3 q) n0 d, v3 S& q) a
A look at credit markets
& C; @# V4 S3 p Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
" z9 X5 B1 \2 Z& l7 YSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! ?, ]2 ?, O/ @1 I% c
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; s% H8 d) \: S- N" n. a  Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- `) v5 B4 K% M; Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 X6 H& B0 B) t/ ?- \1 i" Yaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 O6 Z, E; O7 `( e0 x$ O. H5 ^CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ T; c4 Q! J: h7 g
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  o9 Z* I% n+ @3 @6 h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) j) l) H  v0 J) i5 P' Y5 ]1 _finding financing.
% w! E2 ^/ a" w1 d/ I  e3 o! a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ _. y2 X4 ~; y6 e% N/ v0 Y0 I
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ m+ g% O$ a& N, h; [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 @3 p" y# d, x! C6 q( N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 B- Q' \( N: D7 J' X; `3 bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- M$ Y* V* @; j0 H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- L7 u# C3 f/ o3 l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 X' Z8 T) y2 o, I
today.& {* W, `' F9 |: ?6 e
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ K, B. c! `4 X: U' d& E) h7 K! ?  Temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' A" G" s: p! q. Q' s& C Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, q- F( m3 {; r
the Greek default.
7 c8 I7 ]+ G- h; _! E4 H" B5 t- P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) d3 [. b( `1 A& |6 n4 ?5 `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
1 P# \4 Y* v0 a. C5 R7 {7 }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. ?. F8 t+ Y, q% p3 y( N; bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; W, s5 D  A2 h' i+ `0 b) A/ N3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! I, G4 R, K, h0 D: V5 b4 I1 V% f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years( t  `0 F* e5 V+ r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
8 E9 r/ D3 {: b% O9 Z6 H# O: v0 u- c" }% }. [
Beyond Greece$ ~) [# D# c: Q( T/ G
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: [( z7 f& _2 f5 t6 u
but that was before Italy.
  C  T+ u4 z& T  V- K, {9 [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 d4 o5 y7 j5 m1 n, C% o It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ }2 Y2 a7 ?" D' x! k, }! |7 e
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% f" w8 ^0 J) p  L8 Y9 ~9 W7 m

( H9 O$ b# `6 D3 Q* ~5 i. DConclusion6 E1 d* {" @5 m! W) n
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-23 08:03 , Processed in 0.097501 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表