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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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" c2 X. u. l8 S: a7 o# }$ pMarket Commentary/ \- ]- d* S9 l% M) j: w5 k, H
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" N4 c" k0 f5 _8 S7 q" m8 k
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 f& V8 {3 x. t6 e( P7 t
Signature Global Advisors# D; M1 Z0 ~- r5 J

6 l% |) }8 X# ^. z
- y( c! M( N; Z: NBackground remarks4 d7 B0 u4 R7 Y  m( T6 w
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 q& W& U" P* Q  Q& `7 f+ T' V; _as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 Y! l1 f! ~' j9 E) b, J6 v/ |# H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 r. f, y- k3 l  o! `5 W: |1 r* d% Z6 Fadjustments.
) W( l& ]2 t) G, w  R9 t( \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( P  o! a6 g$ s4 A5 N" f
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, B( p/ P7 L7 `7 T, L$ b Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 l, f9 U  c: F0 M: B* l4 U
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ E4 i- |) n* V/ d1 J6 Q- g' h We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. V' a9 i7 M( m9 ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; P+ A/ E" H$ c4 U Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. h" J4 s2 o* @' L
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: p. Y0 X; B1 l) I, d+ _# T Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 G; [) g1 x' f4 ]
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! @3 `- C, l) N9 F% \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' Z! l/ r) G4 z8 Q" I$ r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ v) R: K- `) g3 A) V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 P) }' |6 y2 q7 w1 T# ]% j# ^6 U
impose liquidation values.
7 z6 O) T: t/ R1 f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 A! Z  u, {! z. @& a- XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- p5 W8 A" k9 y! i1 [( J
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 _* d$ F) S8 d- z2 H( r; w& X
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
# X* Q2 q7 y6 S5 l$ y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, U  a6 i% @& o9 N2 S/ K7 XSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 ]0 j( z) R& J  k5 o6 `7 @ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 V4 }3 `9 _' O8 L1 Hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 z* z) a7 I0 P  m0 Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& ^. \& d0 ~. N5 Z: z, W! ]access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) h% B3 D9 |- q; g& O4 cCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ n. |* g* b, _0 U; J
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* _& s& _8 t; K1 p3 K7 b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 d2 a5 p7 ~5 o  M, R) V- H
finding financing.
6 {6 n3 a2 v7 [9 z& T% O: A' ]! I) q! D. ` Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 q  h3 N$ ~0 v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 @. i$ W) d7 J/ M4 ^# C# B
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; v0 P: n$ r/ ?/ v  s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 i$ }2 X! J1 @+ ~( s: D  |2 Igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ Z3 d0 j) v; ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.9 F# l3 v" N1 a: U' L8 A- _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! f2 A) h8 K$ Z  |* w9 Ytoday.
3 M: c+ A" y& | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- v0 [2 `  o& K2 t: }+ z: yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* V, b0 J9 x; _5 y' t0 d Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for3 Q, Q* U# \8 p  y  P
the Greek default.
9 s9 f2 J1 m  y1 e- x As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- J8 A; @  _* S  _3 W5 O- O) J" ^% {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  Q. \3 }9 ~* l$ X/ N6 T0 z
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 z' e- _5 |* G0 s. i! M0 Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
" g2 ^7 r6 q2 |, G* n" `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( ?& G$ L& U5 ~0 b% M* l5 p
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) Z/ Z2 \' g4 Y- c1 O) m4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; ^! D' b# W7 e
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Beyond Greece9 d2 Y: q: l6 U0 ]* R) \& a, U/ z* i. u
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& m4 O( u3 P1 ^# }7 r5 P' ?but that was before Italy.0 T" F/ W2 ^9 ~9 ]
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) y4 ?* A( V9 U  {0 @
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- L* G# a( o& E( _) o2 l' |9 i" ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 t1 |+ L- ]/ F9 ]
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Conclusion
$ [( }+ S) i) D/ n3 s" b2 p" S/ F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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