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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; a! V% R2 p; x2 ]" q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 N6 _3 z% a* ?7 O! n- ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- X% F" X2 w2 h. |6 Q
impose liquidation values." t) L4 s+ L) h0 D
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" B# U- T2 N% k5 w. @" E# F
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 O1 w! K8 |: M) \$ r+ w! ^
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% [, a0 }: Y% w( a; s, E) p! J0 Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% V+ q" y2 A- `5 I# d% N
1 d+ a4 b- w* h7 a. [+ v& ]A look at credit markets1 W; r; I, N- |- _
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" s, Z! C4 B& I( }. m, |2 l
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 Y; C, F! Y, T& n6 ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- {; _5 k6 J& U" d) z. H7 P6 L1 [then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 S( t7 [, T* V. U1 ~
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) w" |. s# e4 C% y- o) Z! B T' i
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade i- W& K6 T" U9 J ^4 M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 p# G9 \- z Q4 |: v/ P4 W' ^& `5 i6 apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 Y% z* y0 u% {" T! I8 o
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. C* V& g1 U; A3 ` N; @finding financing.
' Q# i6 f4 a5 l) \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' W3 i( |4 q% `$ ]
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ v2 U) t' a4 A [4 O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ M4 u: l- m5 ]0 V" P
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! B0 C/ o( c' E/ J( m, U+ y% @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ }' P+ @6 D- i' e, Obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. I( {6 F8 i, t5 T/ S. n7 i European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 q( D9 o& K- j6 k- ^
today." X' X( f3 l2 Q# @3 U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' f( g; ?' k) P6 ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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