埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3279|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 T+ {- t* G4 y/ a) f2 N

/ N& }+ |1 }  u# F& ]- fMarket Commentary
6 Y4 a( @) P- ^: BEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 R+ p3 p% w0 J+ Y" H* M! D' c
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) c7 F; z" A* g; x# U- A5 ]
Signature Global Advisors
* R) S+ r5 q2 ~7 r  z& \. v  A1 o! \* G' E& t" b: Z3 W
: ]/ q. U" g% l: v
Background remarks  F& w  ~8 P+ Y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ e5 y( ~! J7 I- x
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ r' n6 [. T$ J5 A% @+ r Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( Y" l3 \7 u2 @5 {' ]% H# y
adjustments.
5 R5 }; m# `* U5 `& F4 l, L This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ {1 S4 e0 r. r) U
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( p/ J6 ^  g0 V" V, y) r
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 z+ d- N' D; F8 r5 B) {
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
5 e0 Q7 y7 N. ^3 { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
! G! Y, c" J$ v6 c  _6 d" _0 p& [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' g( z7 y) z7 m2 N& G Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 \7 d, Q6 Q& t  y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  M: G0 K4 A7 u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& v0 `" }. {7 i0 w& t$ b- n
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 Z0 p# ^! c! R0 Z% G
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 F, D5 B, ]2 @) g1 i
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" s: ^& H+ z0 g& _; x8 \+ q3 c7 Zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 ^) g! `4 ~3 @1 D0 i4 W9 ?impose liquidation values.
4 L  C$ B- x4 U# R In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; T  I6 i7 ~% _9 j
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 @  Q( _) m. Q& H" @* I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: m* h4 f) M! y7 i, ^
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 s0 C  w4 \! ^& l8 m) o! v" h5 }( f9 B' O# k* _
A look at credit markets
1 ^6 {/ u! U2 v9 d$ [ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; c* f+ i( @7 ?& kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ ?$ x- Z% `, z5 u& P9 _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ C8 d3 M. t' J" k' }. r* U' G; ^then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: P1 M8 T$ i% O1 s/ o
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, U  D  \5 H1 u0 G: Y8 A& O
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. `9 S; B' r% _3 _) n# Z1 kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 x5 F* j& s9 D/ x0 U" B' I
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 ?4 p' e4 D4 n" Q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ Q, n5 [7 q# n3 R& O
finding financing.
8 M- K% S1 {/ W! E6 l9 O( |, B* L0 d Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 M) }3 Q- ^7 u- N" ?8 Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* Y/ |0 d7 b4 F. k  D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( c5 p9 T/ F9 x0 q& I, k8 F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 e. x& r* n; M: I
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ G' ]0 ^) c! M
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." h% M2 I' h) L1 k: O3 q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ j8 u* e% p/ `
today.8 l' J* _: N8 h# u
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 `1 g/ |* J  ]! b4 S0 x  U
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 L* a4 _7 ^2 t9 n, p& H, m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for6 ]8 N/ H( i( [" I3 u+ C
the Greek default.
6 g+ T* H5 J* E: A8 B As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 b; T5 k' o5 f- p% R
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* q4 k0 P1 q" b( I" R0 O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ h4 i7 a4 C( P3 y; r0 q8 qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 Y  B3 Y) n, n' k  O1 f, @+ G3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* U5 y/ X6 l$ }. t+ I* obanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 V# i4 t! w6 _: X3 Y$ e4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.3 T$ t  C" F# J

% r2 @2 b7 Y. Q  l! ?Beyond Greece
/ C8 G8 g& ~+ k& a9 s( ~* ] The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 H( e# Z4 o2 B0 d) Q2 Q# b
but that was before Italy.
4 ]0 Q9 J  `& e8 u4 y6 j It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* [6 e9 Z5 E; T4 Q) }. B It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 a% J) x5 b" m; I9 ~* SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
7 K, r7 m) m- u: E- u* l- _( {/ ], D6 @9 t0 d
Conclusion
5 m- W: _& e) x3 m; L We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-17 13:13 , Processed in 0.127498 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表