 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
/ b8 ^. R' o* A4 E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- Z" f% Q/ [- j2 J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 X% X: T4 n% \" ]3 F, f+ R' A8 J% Z4 ~0 timpose liquidation values.
+ D( i* X: u+ A. C, }8 ~. Q9 [ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 `8 @2 h6 X% E- d& p& Z4 e- _8 r0 iAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! Q3 h) v5 V& N0 U& Q4 Z: m! q8 V
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) o5 a1 H! d+ T$ H7 p( x1 C# t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 n, d9 [/ R) m( U5 C+ [
# w2 B) U, n" a, E9 ~: U8 X, pA look at credit markets( {, p& D; R2 N& l2 g# @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 y8 A" s$ \& h. `
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 c- [* B, D A) I/ \" c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: F# h7 H4 N0 b0 j* u- w0 x$ Q$ n$ [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 K" B8 L @5 G2 ]5 p5 W! e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 T" u8 m$ S# _* m" K! x. @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( `" M: q( @0 O1 n( n: d' rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 X" B- I( s( a- I1 T, E0 Z: s, ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 U5 U3 b% |8 N2 ?
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: ?: ~+ u+ n0 C, J! Z9 _, C
finding financing.5 c! z: n% b% T1 B( F9 _9 v2 [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 x. U+ ?0 J$ f5 Hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 I) D. x7 [4 u2 |7 E: ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and0 A0 A5 ?2 z) V5 g. r+ W3 s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, H- q1 E% |$ s1 W' w. jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( _9 i4 I5 d, e; _
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 S/ X0 k' E: t2 c% S/ f& r* x1 m. Y" S European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, T6 ^- O2 `( i4 C, N
today.
3 e' W8 e" L8 i0 r" K6 z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' a9 L& W* [% d# Y" c/ F) vemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|