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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. Y1 N8 ]& |/ P! r& B

! q6 t/ g3 e5 ]& w/ z. ]/ mMarket Commentary
+ B0 q1 b8 i4 H9 }# w. P9 a; K9 kEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 T3 r0 @0 n* q. z" d) kJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  H7 p' o0 ^5 @/ r
Signature Global Advisors
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) l6 S: {2 l- x4 k6 i; a9 i
. j& c1 l' C; ?5 P% U+ |! Z$ UBackground remarks7 T! L# _- F* C* z6 S
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: Q4 o1 M5 P7 Y( R! `  H/ H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 q; C5 Y) l9 X7 V' b Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# ^* D5 U7 Y9 I( ^
adjustments.
) Q4 Y, j+ b1 b2 M6 r5 D5 [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( ~  q9 S- M/ V+ V$ l& Z
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- z# U/ N- P7 v0 e2 }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& Y5 C% i! t9 i/ m6 I" }+ B& Y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% O! y% v2 x3 S  m: v9 N We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( D" Y+ S% [8 o4 S* `5 h( k% y9 y0 f6 d
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% y9 D, q; N4 \1 W  n4 M
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 N5 d' v8 Q$ l  N5 T' Hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
8 ]. B/ \+ d* ~5 L Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." I0 A* r6 q3 w  `! W# r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! ?# S9 s  ]5 e6 G& Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" w) G7 ^3 e3 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; D2 p4 O5 X$ D  B9 `8 u! Q' r% c; V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 f. p% l' a* ~; c  }* s  Bimpose liquidation values.
- `3 T! z5 Y; U( U! }# T/ h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! n# h7 s, `& L6 N
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; K, ]9 W8 T" n" F5 i6 {. g! O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! K( A( ]: u' I4 Y6 t7 g
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets; s, M1 F4 F" x; H
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ j! K) S: f0 }* {# `
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- W$ F* ]) a+ U) p2 M! | High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ U1 y  \' n. Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: r' u% {+ t+ x& E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* v& g, f& D1 N7 x: |" }access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 U+ j: y8 N- q9 W' L
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 S' N$ e! Z* k/ N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 q$ |9 `+ K2 Q9 P. { Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' b$ V8 ^# [% o% pfinding financing./ E2 b4 N) I$ ?/ R4 c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( m. K. ~4 p2 v2 l: j8 a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ u  {3 o/ ^/ Z% g
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 d8 {* D! m0 D8 V  Q8 o1 Ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 N4 }5 e1 L; {5 Z% q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 N! d& |! j9 `# p2 h: m4 j/ u  obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# c" ]# J6 g5 F- a" ]( E: Z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# w+ S% Z2 H1 ftoday.
0 q( N0 }0 P" h; x/ f" B9 U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( V% h: J( `$ `3 ~0 f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
/ Q0 D5 z, T, S+ D Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
5 o1 i2 a0 a* O, G/ k! a( j9 \the Greek default.
% i2 S  U7 q. A- I: ~" K$ P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( z: l6 x2 a* y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 x$ b  I- Y/ _+ w8 P2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign; R* C, W& a4 X. I& w7 ?
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 J; ]+ v: u9 p; q# j1 k- C* r
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 N7 \4 O- `' k& Q! ?
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 H8 G' B1 H  L5 @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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, t% L- |  c6 }Beyond Greece
- r3 J& V: r' e The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 [6 Q: A3 j! O) v1 |" C9 G! Hbut that was before Italy.
& W/ {/ t/ A/ ^/ c7 K It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 \0 A( v. N5 M  w) P: i. S
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. P& \( {) K) F4 s4 H& h3 WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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( v- F  _6 X' k5 e! I6 EConclusion
- A$ @" S% I0 u; F- ] We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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