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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: I, c$ z. k' m# b
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Market Commentary* T9 E5 s8 u3 k
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
' Q/ c! {& r5 n8 I7 [1 b. b5 WJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) y4 j  ]1 x5 a  O' q! y' `Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks7 x8 X2 y7 L/ h( u2 l1 k3 h
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( }7 K' }2 I! M& e
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ ~# B/ n; t& d+ F
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 j3 |8 H( C% Hadjustments.
+ W: n3 v8 n3 J4 a  ~ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. U/ g* N3 s4 d, P3 Z# Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 n3 g# w  `3 v6 _4 i
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' G9 G+ y6 h2 P# U3 b* s- C9 l$ P% c  @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' ?; A8 ?5 U5 q: ~* C We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, B1 U! U! X/ w. D) W' n2 Uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) E2 B: S- N7 w8 U8 Y! |
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ U. R* l) L( G
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 d& O" i) V, X
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, i" `( m5 F1 I! w# ^$ p# I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 w) U6 B6 M! h. e; q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; q" V6 f1 [9 }# @! M: B! ^6 g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- q$ o$ ]/ U- [" f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' ^$ M: f  @" t+ |% ]* a8 l* ?
impose liquidation values.
( L/ {/ k. e( ~# i; y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 _& d  Q8 N% ~: Y9 `- n
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* K/ h  _; O$ ^+ \4 B1 [. c The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 {  x9 u4 v( N: {- Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& g2 y: K, ~0 l9 y. E& @

( E- G7 M/ h1 N$ aA look at credit markets
0 `1 g( k9 o& b4 N2 W Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 V: R" h. X! U6 r# _& q- O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 W2 \; k" M* R$ f( }1 o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 Y1 A1 c$ }; }0 c; l9 L7 _then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. F2 ?; |) v" q7 N" B* z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" @2 [7 W3 N1 m! r5 B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& F" O7 D1 @& i  b3 g/ SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 h1 Z' X0 X! J9 b
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ X( n9 J& z* i. u+ j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 }3 L; a5 u* d* d9 gfinding financing.
$ w" N( s4 t9 M2 p9 N Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' B/ f/ B8 \. Z) L" Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 a  t  N# _  o2 h( i) \1 V9 J, K
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! m5 H' A8 O- s8 S
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( Z+ Z; t, ~1 x* s" W) kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 a" o- \7 j3 Z( |7 E7 _: Cbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 N5 t3 j; @; k9 E4 O, v
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ Y7 j" \5 h- X5 C, s& C( I7 z
today.- U% O5 n* W; K
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in0 N: A, Q; D8 d8 @
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% j$ A4 K" y( s. C" u- N# w
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for& h5 K5 K5 U( {+ Q8 Q3 L
the Greek default.- i. J. V3 C6 ?9 G
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 a$ P8 i0 p" W* E) \
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' B4 l$ p# H# |0 ?2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- R- p3 S1 K& B/ d' Z: T1 e$ U; Udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: ?( @5 H& G3 _  z6 O1 S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 l3 }) f% Z/ E% B4 f& j# C4 Dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' m$ a. `; a4 j. X! `! H" E: |
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
% Y# u- R4 \% |( E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! X4 s' Y6 k; ~0 S
but that was before Italy.
! d% J  j4 ]9 Z7 P- d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." `1 I: e2 t# }, y. D, H
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 [2 ^$ x5 l; B- Y8 CItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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! b4 O4 f' ~1 I( I! {) y+ pConclusion
3 }; Y2 T7 _- U" ?  p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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