市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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7 S6 L& Z/ Z  ]/ o2 k8 i& X" P) {9 H3 r  pMarket Commentary
* `. f( X& f' R6 ^4 PEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* g9 _( L; H. v% z: q; x4 oJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 f. s# M4 X" O) `+ d' t3 v) ?Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
: n8 e- s: s; b2 R2 k: x  }: | Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
% R/ o0 C1 O+ x This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' \3 A7 F: Y3 i5 g1 D7 M5 c" ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) {4 m" }; K; Y9 Q, A Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
3 V( h% N& G& B" e4 ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: x& _4 P, C2 s% fadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; R- k0 a; ?. H8 ~" `* w Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  ~8 ^  d/ P4 q6 Y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& E% D1 R- c# t+ u, Yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 g/ [) _# o& oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 o( }- J3 r% _; W) k, j, |$ P- Vimpose liquidation values.
4 u' ~1 I/ {5 s* t+ H; | In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
! }# b: C- f$ O# O8 i) w) s2 X) ESeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 [; I$ m+ ?2 ^* R* p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; @* s% [, i. @& l6 mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 e: R8 p4 \* y1 PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* q- s) A6 c; ~ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) V" q4 v, ]. a4 F0 B3 r  {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
3 S/ w7 ?+ X  ~, m Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) ^1 J, c5 B; C8 C: T+ [: h. w- Zthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 Q% S: B) N# w2 I6 ^1 J* x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* t: d& D' p- O' h! m, I$ `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ ?0 p+ a! f) N; ^1 S3 g7 e; \) ^but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

. D; {+ D( Q: U3 K  cConclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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