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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
" N* y0 M" G+ s2 u0 n9 x% ^% y+ D2 ?# ^
Market Commentary6 p5 Z  c/ K! p8 Z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; D& K: A) L% ]1 D/ ^James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' ~& v0 y) H9 o+ Y
Signature Global Advisors/ j1 @. a2 L  V/ u* ^
9 u4 t/ A7 i' k+ ~. Y9 [

  m- i  {4 Y- V3 bBackground remarks/ j; y4 X* ?+ g$ _5 g% \8 w
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 u" c( P# Q+ Z0 n$ pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( E" i' _+ l5 P4 l& `
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ v& s$ @. ?( @, B0 B9 r! y# qadjustments.
- w2 O7 p% j' z& ]5 M# U This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 g) _% M+ _  _1 l
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 U! X: r4 |& O$ D- [ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  C6 r1 v, e) R# L
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 V' \; L) {: K% p( ?3 T6 ~
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ C  k6 W: c1 T: F. b5 Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& u- o" H  e: k7 o5 H# E) M
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
) E$ b* B- l' Q3 _% @) Fquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 G: m! J) u% U Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) c  @6 d9 U' A; ?" I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: a0 [) i) X) z4 e, u8 e* breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation: i; @! R: {) D! i5 x+ Y( L. v$ ^
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 ?% s# H3 _5 w) M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! e! G) e1 g9 H& U0 |
impose liquidation values.
; i7 a1 ]+ b7 q6 v# k1 l5 t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 D7 `9 A6 R: M5 K. o! lAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 H7 g: `) p! \: [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# B% H; u- v. n4 k- o
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. k% }: x7 Q8 C+ k8 _6 C) @
+ N" W+ H1 }! T' Z- _- ?5 W
A look at credit markets) _1 y- @; Y+ @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# R2 D! y  N9 H2 j; i# T* ]2 y9 n# CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% ?3 Q4 z& y( z2 W$ c0 v High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- B' K! d2 |2 G+ x+ Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 d" q* r9 r, O: G! v! Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ k0 N8 Z' C2 G; q; i6 ~* Haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 z$ M! ?/ J' S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 c7 W0 j, @, v$ l$ w: t/ i
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% p4 K, d5 S; i4 x; ~  h% F Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 }" r# G7 G+ u2 Q
finding financing.9 Q  O- q5 _( c0 t; M3 _6 v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 J0 E0 c8 D# @
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# W" Y8 |# e, k8 k" X5 J
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. C- _. r0 l/ X6 n6 t" v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 M" A" b. u, p5 }  Lgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 G# D" J7 O4 Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- Q" B5 v: ?9 v; S- h
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 Z( r  H% e8 W$ j; Z$ q# {today.
5 c6 p4 U1 {" H+ Y' c0 h+ K3 V$ h# N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  B' W/ a+ b1 g2 U2 a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 G" b& P' V- I& Z, ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, Z6 d1 V1 u& X
the Greek default., T1 n3 D3 C  ?8 n( T  b2 U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  r% i% z8 R3 J) z" t6 d
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 h* q" u+ C$ r- f  k3 s3 e
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 M/ m4 N; j7 @9 Q% R& U" Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: ?! s9 J8 s0 ^
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% z) U$ U: N6 y! G2 }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years( v3 R5 K  r$ P
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- q4 P( X5 O. ^/ B0 a1 H5 s

  N; z/ ~& u0 C' tBeyond Greece% {5 k* g& n& v1 A
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; G- f' v, g$ E0 m- p' V1 m
but that was before Italy.  \' `. U7 e2 l/ f8 q/ B6 a
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) B% u6 j% {) j5 _: g
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 ?' U; ~4 R' M& h* i; z& |Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 A+ _- n. t5 _7 X1 G
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Conclusion5 J  ~$ A# `9 ]( x
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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