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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation3 ~0 x2 s% N% |
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" M5 }$ \) u E" D5 ]- Z, Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- h6 `( ?* f+ k" i0 ^- l P; l
impose liquidation values.
! i u# B5 i7 N8 K1 n! W; |# m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& D8 H! A6 l+ H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( \, d g4 w* V% s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ W/ e- u2 H2 W7 Q% \8 F U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' _6 l' I" T, R5 d# eA look at credit markets
- { K) w3 i* v0 @. [ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 O- b# E+ x; J- i |) {$ z+ ISeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) H" R# t/ g0 b- r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
2 B% l# N" D8 p8 D. ]then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" t$ ]* w/ C9 g' R
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, [' K" S/ f/ c
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
?$ m. E* i$ ~! j [' g. U7 RCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 g1 k0 n2 T$ }( E u, Y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 Q" {2 K. y- K8 a! T6 b8 w6 r! a Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 j9 P3 U$ I1 h- C: [
finding financing.! Z( ~ l" P1 _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 B4 c& m Q5 k( L( lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 t. t# \; b S8 {+ ^" U8 E5 P) @5 h
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' l' c' v3 k) k* ^8 Q0 ~8 vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 m& H# P; s% x; l
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& t U( e0 X+ L, Z! N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% t E7 y! V/ \& u4 M2 d
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 [3 _( C9 @* N/ \/ Q6 M2 Itoday.; H/ Q* D& t1 ^
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in0 _& Y4 n7 i; T( Y- r" V0 w
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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