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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& L$ w$ ^5 P* b. l' Q  q/ V$ }

2 }( }6 e7 \% F& h  GMarket Commentary% L/ Z! P. o& k
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& X" @+ [1 ]1 Z! l1 }" BJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- W, P" z& S2 d# mSignature Global Advisors8 y& k& z) I; t9 F
; t" L% b& ^5 Y

  w$ s# l( H/ R- B; |Background remarks8 E- T6 T8 N' J5 A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ \% C& _/ I; k
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 s* s  @) d6 ?/ K* Q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 B/ E2 Q% V1 M
adjustments.) K1 R% |; c6 h& [# F7 L" B4 V
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 T6 H. b! f" {# j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( n; ^+ W4 V3 z$ f8 A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. u, B7 w; J7 x$ P$ c1 _lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 \, V  U- @& r We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% x: \" l* E% a7 j
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ n, R$ z; U  `
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 d. z* F* X0 L
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 l* z8 m' E: y2 ]
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ {6 x% x  [6 j7 i& y5 _* u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 g6 B* a' |( e/ B
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ z4 P+ B' a2 @- X$ D, z% ~
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* H6 Z3 m5 H4 e9 q9 f& k2 A4 vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; L5 z5 ^  c! uimpose liquidation values.
- f7 r- ]# ~- P4 h7 A$ Z: K0 o) } In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  m- ^  U1 o7 u% Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." M8 R" T" Y0 F$ S4 m
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension3 y( R6 X1 V8 z' ]5 k
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
/ b9 d4 q0 R* i9 p% |. B1 }2 s- |
% U3 s" L* R6 V2 ?: B2 N$ kA look at credit markets" T$ q" y( c/ W: x' Y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 f: m, T1 {9 _7 \9 K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( B5 }3 N2 c3 }0 B High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. b3 }  p' s+ m( Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 _7 _6 |$ F$ m# y6 r' Tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ o3 m4 o7 b& z' y% I
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* h% M. [" k/ M) m" E4 w( X* r3 s5 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ a1 r) w- Q1 t7 n7 \) j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 d2 _3 f- U0 U& w, V( ?# _
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 `% u8 Y" E+ ^  m8 v" ]# \2 cfinding financing.' }' W: `+ o3 U: K2 y* E* h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 V7 n4 m( _2 l* s0 l2 C* [& r
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( ]' x/ p# i" c  F5 Q/ H6 K
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 i' K  W0 N: b) O- Vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# P& g6 h# {3 N4 J: P: Y- ]2 Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 ~: Z# v" M' L9 A8 gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. j5 }' f; {% P: m" A, O
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 \$ i9 u( [+ K2 ~
today.; A( z; f4 `( n/ O* N" V; ]
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 G7 O" r; T  W# }/ memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda+ D6 b3 v& p5 h0 v
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ _6 k6 T3 c- E- M# G
the Greek default.
1 r  ~6 i3 L& ^ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 |% q& d6 [& Y1 x. k2 S) o0 N
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 {6 e1 N! u/ W* z# O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 \& f! {3 l0 w4 l( [# xdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- z/ @- C8 o. R+ ?6 E( s& K3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 ]: V; ]' U& A7 U7 N; c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! l  o# s' M" c# E; m7 }
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
! h) {2 I# l& i
4 H0 G* z! x( B% zBeyond Greece
2 S; O& J7 M, J. {) n2 H The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* M3 R1 Q; c% P
but that was before Italy.
9 \3 e( s: ?  D- h- y4 A It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 s) b. P3 X, l" W5 s1 s1 ] It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" Q6 b! Y5 _, CItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
* p& G( p8 _- q, u" S6 H8 i% J. S0 T8 j% Q% c' k' B
Conclusion) [! {* t) O( t1 o3 |) l
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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