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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. `. y% H' l+ V; C5 v6 B3 ~

- t8 d) }: F  U5 o* hMarket Commentary# P% h  Z& N+ i: B0 L* W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) h1 s# K9 }! [0 I* }5 I
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! `0 i1 a+ U8 ^& D5 }Signature Global Advisors
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2 X9 g$ |1 _7 o5 I! [
  P% j' ?- ?2 f) p5 z3 g+ I" c$ pBackground remarks5 k4 [' u" H0 w5 D# {
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 p  a$ C- h# Vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- G$ r* `* v4 ]) k9 T6 p/ A Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. z/ @8 w: J5 `4 L
adjustments.
8 c% O% Y$ q' J( W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ n6 B/ h7 j: R0 p0 Y1 E& j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
! n8 Z5 W6 ~5 ?" c# C! z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 {; }3 M! M  z$ U- K. \
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 ?+ Q# E9 ^9 r" m0 {
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
9 Q4 e* V5 I- z& Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: f! m" z' I3 H9 u* F0 ?$ u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' H4 E6 t+ `" J3 I: ^: Uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& Z4 P; [7 y( V8 I% x4 m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." n( `# r* f5 I: F+ h/ M
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 f. j3 h: F' Z3 ?- |) Freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 |  Y: v: G# V" ^
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 l: Z+ U# ]* d% j! [7 H/ s1 ?: ]as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 H# T3 \$ X, g% g: w
impose liquidation values.
- r" j! i9 ~; b; Q$ b5 T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 P  |" L6 M1 K, I; w
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! p' E% F; P2 n; `' ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. f  g7 R, q, w& n
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
3 K% u' F0 W( X- x) s4 _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
" V$ c( E7 I# p5 l0 C% NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ o+ }  m2 F2 z$ y, Z0 P6 q4 M) H8 V: H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 Y, `; o/ w( s/ X, S) Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' N# y; @: Z( u0 @+ G
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 x9 m) ~9 J$ S9 T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; C% f* w9 Y7 c9 @0 ^" O0 H/ O7 JCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& I8 D* k# u+ v8 }0 C+ S( c
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ ]: n4 W) @' ^0 \  r& ?+ H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 F5 E# M6 @9 p: d- [# K( r$ Dfinding financing.
- H- Q% G+ {& ^- N) Z0 k9 S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* B* ]4 H! A, w6 H: f9 R9 ]were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 J2 C1 Y' A% A% I/ C, O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 ^+ ]( @" \, Q8 e! @
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ m% y9 O0 e; v% r. G# m* r- X' O) G
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 z4 C! P* d! b+ mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) v- l+ Q0 k# W# {# P  R  _9 A European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& q3 L6 ~. K; J0 w& U' Q7 O- h% htoday.
1 h7 U0 R, W6 J. M. ] Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" C) W+ Y! z$ Z) wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ ~0 U, v; `4 {3 a7 s
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. z6 s6 v2 e8 d9 `0 h+ b' ?the Greek default.
  ^" g2 f7 k( ^* N, ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& ^5 j8 {1 R& v8 Z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ p: E: J7 s# V) I# y5 C  m  W# ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 ?/ I' ^0 B: u9 \8 d; w% U" E& ~% udebt stabilization, needs government approvals., m5 G) l4 ~3 i* B' f  v$ P
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 `) E' X# f- l) j$ _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 P8 x, c+ _: y) D  ^# j$ n1 p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece2 t9 D1 _0 X3 n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& g$ w0 E- F- d/ N& R! d( m" {) A
but that was before Italy.) o' B$ _/ i* x2 E7 Z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% f4 W) J. Y( y It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 ~1 m* w9 l' S/ nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion( X: z( Y& R: {4 T8 \
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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