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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
. E0 b3 J; L# Q7 f/ X) r8 F1 I: i, x The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 _: G8 \& Y6 J" W$ j7 h oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: q+ p2 u; ~' }3 w1 g" y
impose liquidation values.
' k* i6 V. V5 r$ u In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 s2 s( m7 g; J5 M2 Z& P5 s
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# W/ g; L- ] x
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 A4 ]" t7 h" R4 l2 P3 U( J
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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0 P# o' E! D" X$ }/ B( k, `A look at credit markets7 ^2 y* O: \5 }: \
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 f9 ~7 X+ s9 H, Q' R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ c: e# }$ z5 q' p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( y: }8 L: }: |% K; [0 Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! q6 b9 L1 i, c4 L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 }3 ~7 ` z* R6 @/ L6 W U7 j2 R
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade c9 b( W: h' I% W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' j# {% J! Z R8 u( R
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., Z* @: S1 _9 |, s
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* E5 ` Z% e: b! o3 g5 S( e4 ~
finding financing.+ k) h& R( z4 S* D, v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 V+ F8 Y) S/ e4 awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 A9 f4 |+ V, L7 b. [+ P$ C W
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% X# k, O X. K6 }6 Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% t C* v/ L8 _/ g% s$ E' u, ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 a+ E3 g" D% K! N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 c' c- ^' m T; t2 h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 w# p$ \! Z* M" T6 X4 d) }
today. K" t9 F" |* W" y* {: ~9 @* W
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ d( g: L: o! s K7 P nemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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