市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
3 O- c( I, M; y2 B3 ?: wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ ]& c; A$ x3 q: r5 LSignature Global Advisors
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" o3 S2 r6 k  O8 F& eBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: @6 F9 m+ i" f, A$ `9 [! isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 `0 w5 m5 ?5 A% T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' L9 \! G. i, T$ I9 N: h. creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
7 v! ?) e( X: i The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  ^' @% i, t8 O2 D6 y( n3 H$ U) q7 Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, |: h/ ]! ]$ t; D2 H1 a3 f  b6 Y6 nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 V7 P$ `6 a- w, l% o+ cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
/ @- J+ o1 h3 B, g; G) e Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 m0 `- N) z  G+ a$ R High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( R; _) ?) R- y' Q8 q7 `4 o" u, u2 {billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' \0 w2 c9 Q" l1 _! {$ _- f" Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  X9 \* W7 B0 b; C' v- j6 N4 w8 V Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, ?1 g. n6 d: Swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 i5 s  @( I% n" r: Z/ ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  L. J9 G6 K$ R1 `3 I: E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  L5 [$ U' C* C; xemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
& r. O% ]$ m+ L% p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
' V+ Y, s) ^5 ?: y; C2 d As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ v8 |' @6 X* d, d6 p* i* ^1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 q0 B; n3 h7 p& ~- n- r- ]2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) e! u* G$ i: T2 v) O0 H7 E6 n( h3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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6 Y. p5 J  ^) O2 R! ^- j; oBeyond Greece
/ b* W; A: x6 x' ^& T; R1 z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 A9 g0 T- I, j! ^, O It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
1 q, K5 E! A0 j+ P  C. M* _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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