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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 ]) A$ _5 _1 J; q7 ^+ [
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Market Commentary) e; |  @! g8 }* j6 G: Z9 t. D# i) W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  V( ^* X* F( A; p( l
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 K. }( R4 a4 ^" u7 d0 ~. cSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks; G# c6 D% K4 G8 k: L. c
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are7 ^8 C% J8 [1 Q8 l1 J
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 G) o9 j3 [$ Z( @# [
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ _. e& D. i6 Q0 E; q
adjustments.
" ^" i2 ~4 H7 {% j$ `7 \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
9 ]; J: Y- u' a+ N) F% esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 S, \0 l* k# e Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: Z3 @0 ~) [4 F* U
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 j$ h2 J( `+ H+ J- J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ q  r7 b! h7 Y( j7 r, q7 iadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* Q2 g0 [$ B* h# {! ^3 ^+ n Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: o' v0 e1 W2 L* _+ R  l5 v5 O
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 x# ~1 z! e/ B, X9 k" Q+ P Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( `0 ^; P1 `" N
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 I: O. v  b  v" ~+ Z# @2 V/ p
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# h6 S# n% I6 l* U) p2 z+ l( r2 j
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. X( W( b2 H% y* J4 h1 \* Y' p/ b
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  z& A' C% b3 simpose liquidation values.# B  u- M4 H2 Z+ P- j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( y6 A; M, u6 g. cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 t0 `% Y- ?' D* Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ L: a, L! ]0 f8 Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' P. f6 D- l- h5 w# V9 qA look at credit markets
2 F1 u/ ]8 W; Q! N9 m& v. `( h2 C, F Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' G/ q/ ]6 i6 KSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. r' ~& p; `3 G8 o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- N/ i1 ?, @" h) |9 e3 f
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! U2 k: i, i; J7 l+ c. H2 Lbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# Q" Z. Y5 G- T6 k" Waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% v; s2 [5 C6 b; R) F' d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" _$ M  E: B! R* @: D0 W
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- C5 I' x7 N( c. E+ d: u; F Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 ~. g" Q9 P( U8 h; \0 gfinding financing.# `: `7 ?, y& r% t4 K5 e: P. m
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. B: n9 i6 }, D% \7 a, J+ N3 Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# W. S6 j9 F+ z" H) @1 \% N
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, R' c& I" W; A. J; K5 Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; ~; P8 u5 u! s& j2 @going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" @, g- I+ ~6 |" u& l, bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 [1 M3 L- t' b$ @. n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ M1 _& n4 l+ v, _( S: t, g# Xtoday.6 {  E; q% g0 _: L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- O) S0 W3 u% u7 y" B1 |! i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' u0 @% `3 F6 M( b1 L: O
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; a/ @1 [/ G4 O% k0 Zthe Greek default.
- u* U/ d/ A6 g" k! D- ^ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' T: m0 e  ^: K: [5 ]- T
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ L+ _9 }* @# \0 m2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 l4 ^, A- \+ r2 Z; L" K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  d' h  \  t" G( C3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' B5 K1 Q0 b# _0 G" ^; l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 d! u' S8 ^5 l  x4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' L$ {& Z6 m* U, T  Z

) M5 n9 ?. K1 \* OBeyond Greece* a- M- u$ D0 L8 j2 q0 X
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 i4 v$ n0 o8 ]1 s+ ^# W
but that was before Italy.
+ r  S2 e0 n. m It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) O6 P, T- [% p' N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 C- R+ z* c# GItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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( ^. m- [1 w3 J+ k- l. ?2 Q7 A" ~Conclusion8 a# \% v! }  l4 h7 h: O
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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