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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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+ o- M" t: M' ]/ }2 l) ]Market Commentary
3 o2 x& q4 c2 O  eEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, v) s( i' ^5 P& F1 E( X2 ~James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' f3 L" x3 z* m3 U2 }8 K
Signature Global Advisors1 J% r" s7 q' J4 S! r
" e( i- e# ?! I2 f2 y+ G; ?* ^+ q" @& P

/ U: p1 O4 B' w* BBackground remarks5 U7 V) C$ V6 x5 S5 V$ H
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; D! M. x; \  m$ D5 L4 m0 t
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# p. X; Z4 v! _4 x8 i7 \ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 _; r: \2 I' V/ g/ P
adjustments.( @. V" @3 o7 Q8 h# S3 s
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  y- F' `% n7 j: s* E5 psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. `$ b7 F1 I0 {7 f' T3 o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 T' w' f4 n0 J7 ]: e" K, y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ L$ B6 U2 r& E* i' V# \ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ u/ A8 V. u( s1 \$ ~. dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 ^4 b& m: v, ?" T
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ P/ \+ y' M3 x( P& W' U
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
/ J2 X' s) {! j8 s6 y" } Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- Z8 ?$ F6 y; B8 C% [' j Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ G0 D: Y& r) b/ w0 O# m4 W
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" C9 b: c5 X# K
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ D0 t8 o  N8 h' d
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 @+ l& G: L1 himpose liquidation values.# U% }' a! G/ W4 U7 i" Z1 i
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 d4 d$ H& F5 F- b4 |1 MAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! q6 |0 G* q. z/ [! s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 V$ K  Z- c  n& T: V9 ^
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( c  O4 \! U; B  e" C9 U1 j2 {5 ]
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A look at credit markets
8 k$ y2 |0 X  M/ P% i2 l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 B, v  k' h# h* o, zSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, [' c% o9 m+ Y" A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! Z' n- ]3 S- A5 H! h& x, \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 w1 G$ [2 i  Z  }' g; ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! y/ x8 C% u& |access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 [5 N6 i) G, y1 y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' f1 _/ j7 k; l6 f: o
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% |6 a5 w8 {0 i8 \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 K$ D5 u1 t( a6 ]; Z) j" ofinding financing.2 ~1 B6 V4 t5 Z( M
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 U  Z% a' Q, h9 twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* t) D/ m9 n" v4 x9 s2 Z/ j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! v9 C/ A3 |- ~* N! r0 b- wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 X! E# k0 Y) u* Y( H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& T  o5 Y) m" k- T6 Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ ?" l$ _$ w7 b$ p% R4 L
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" z  V. C! f8 Z0 Ptoday.# x; l9 x# G5 G- O. {: y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 f9 p3 ~2 O4 I  v" f0 C$ Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 e& w. R$ Z2 M' Y Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for) y2 r6 \& A' _7 j
the Greek default.
: A+ G- o9 I3 ~& ~2 y8 n% } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- X6 O- N4 L5 Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 X6 k3 A) y2 d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# n( |3 r' A$ a8 p; @4 c
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  Z1 B5 t- N7 r* @, h4 j3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 a4 w& {* K$ }  y: g
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ i/ E7 s9 l& {6 T" }% R4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece& S4 H3 f' a* w! e6 M  q
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# a& a) o( B4 g* B3 ~3 @
but that was before Italy.$ d  `/ r8 k/ x& i/ b
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ e+ P& f: M% |* e8 S
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 e. N$ q* S" H" ]1 x7 Z
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion9 ~2 j+ S" v, e. ~! [. r7 I
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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