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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 s' W& c+ @) Y3 ^9 `1 }/ ^8 n1 S

' }# o1 i  W6 V& ~Market Commentary% P5 Z3 ^+ [  Y: J' [$ ^3 U
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: w% B. P" }. Z( W  MJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# S% B( e& n, n/ o  t
Signature Global Advisors* S9 ]5 [( x$ v9 {
& G( d! e) l+ \+ v2 r% {. H
  o  i2 G7 P" V8 e: C
Background remarks
+ Y! J  h9 {! [7 k Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ v+ k& ]8 v! J' u) ]- b) Das much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 [5 M8 ^# O2 T" F- w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ u5 G: E' l/ ^/ `4 U' ^; ?adjustments./ X8 U8 E5 t9 o1 U
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 i' e% B# S  l# v# xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: D# W( g1 d3 o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! ~- [' ^* e$ Y7 _* C+ ]lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* I* N, x( g) O2 Y3 _/ f We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# _, d+ C" b4 @, L* a
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 V+ B& \9 p. ~* ], N
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 l( l9 I; W# U4 Q# ?( qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  E! Z" T) \4 o$ A% B5 s
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; J+ z5 v) J/ t5 S3 l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 n  V& s  y% i+ L- H* i5 {6 breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
( m9 B9 r1 O% P The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 P8 k4 R, _. z$ V3 las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. b6 G/ l+ H& c3 g! @. ?impose liquidation values.
* ?5 z2 V* g6 W3 M6 ~ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& |/ z1 M* m3 D3 T1 JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) P+ g9 g: g& i0 g
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 M( U1 e- S3 C7 jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! m& J+ Y  A6 v8 c7 h# Q
6 a/ Z* N$ R5 v2 d! g5 y
A look at credit markets: {7 m+ F: G4 u& Q0 W
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: @6 P: T( M. U' l0 kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: ^0 x/ t$ o8 A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 q, [8 t6 N. l, h9 _
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 f" [5 L% C! ?2 V, X& r1 v8 J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ K, \. [8 q4 B/ \
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) R& e2 a% ^) {7 ]! m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ y7 `3 Y, m$ T6 t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ @; L" P# E2 u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& w& `3 M$ z$ n( ]: h
finding financing.' O" c5 `" t7 Z% `' v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* ]0 H  v" g2 l  [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* Q5 y' K0 j! Q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; T( g% t% @: n) J7 @& e: Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 H7 ?0 E) U" G) zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 e4 x* t' R( e3 j" K/ I, e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* U, L* T0 S0 r; K/ T8 m
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% F! n0 S1 H6 b5 @; k6 |
today.
- m: I- Q) m% u3 a/ T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 h2 M2 ?. B! T. x1 Xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 Q( C. p$ ]- u0 S% L
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" ]- Y3 q3 M! w6 F- _8 g& s7 t' Q" Lthe Greek default.: Y- q4 \# L  v& O% b* M
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' J. ]9 g/ p3 J% T' u
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 u7 A' r. h& R+ |! U2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 A! l# @& e2 M4 Z% Q8 [5 L8 d
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 u7 x7 @% L! P4 |3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% W; \; _' z& C% R0 Q
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 E8 u' }: w) @% N1 p, i* m
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
. |" {3 o" R) y: ?) \/ o/ Z: ~5 n) h  W" d# W* ^/ o, S4 E3 ]
Beyond Greece
1 M) t6 O' E1 q: Y0 d0 [ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. l3 k5 h2 G3 e! P# n6 N" F) Gbut that was before Italy.6 A- E! z  n7 u9 b3 i# z( F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% _. ^% t; P* J' f
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the2 Q4 x8 c" {, k* `% g7 }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( u" Y0 t! a0 j- U9 i
  d4 T) i" U! z
Conclusion
- s& \! w) z" ?: Q" |5 c& S4 R5 N We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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