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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. Z4 P* O$ L9 O9 u

5 i# j6 M, ]& c( n. k0 V) eMarket Commentary
" E( g4 ~+ b" z8 s# a) N* MEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! D8 a' y4 ~" \/ V1 g% |James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 I5 [. |  j! U, TSignature Global Advisors
* J) ]1 W/ H5 @' k2 _# w2 A2 Z0 ?3 a1 C' Q/ b+ [

; L: ^$ V  T9 T# e: h2 i5 eBackground remarks5 ?/ Z: R% J1 _
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 E- r0 L" P* q# ?/ g7 ], ^* \as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." U* K  |' P* H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- x. S3 K+ a3 C% B7 O6 @6 ]
adjustments.% h3 g: p1 {" Y* ~" k& b
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 H4 i+ j, r4 J" ~! l( msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 D$ _# p7 c% k Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are; \$ ?; z- x& n2 X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.# r5 l0 [5 D1 q& z, f
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ O* e! u" N' B7 k
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 Q& G/ }/ K" S5 n' z) {' n9 ]$ a
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 J4 c. B2 G( Q1 G4 Y* N- j
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 q0 `0 w. M# [( ~# G+ P Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' K# h; g1 j) B7 t; E. z2 z# Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 X5 z. v; l- r1 P! u
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' f8 Y* p6 R" Z' ? The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, E8 v. ^, T- D: ]8 `
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 {5 ~$ Z- U6 J. u/ t+ i7 Y
impose liquidation values.4 N  Y# R1 Z% {" w$ G) F
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ a* [3 e4 ]& N+ a* P* q* w
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! T4 E$ Z% _7 I  x7 F
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 n' W1 Z7 F% Y$ R& i! c2 |scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
4 f; e4 e  H# x' A. m3 X: ^0 ]: v
A look at credit markets
0 _3 V7 \! g3 i! Z  n' C5 j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( u3 b* Z0 i- N# ]2 q- D+ p
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( O" B, c3 s9 h9 X# l% ~+ v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 }, S$ g; B- |4 S7 }3 ~then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ u7 w* ~8 w0 k, x5 q  W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 a. \3 Y4 u0 {1 Waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 P: c+ {( n& {) G, l. DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 H; N  Y6 X) y  e0 D: G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 t" e7 ?. i( b+ P4 ?& \5 S5 U; S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% A, X" V! w) t% D) O( \finding financing.% s; A+ |: `' }3 C2 _" P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they  a6 l0 f: Q: S. h: s1 P& B
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# R9 ]/ B! \) B1 Q4 B( e  ~ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& O  r* G) O& m" p( U' Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 a; Z+ ]4 J1 v/ Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# }- V0 {* J' |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 y7 A3 i1 u2 e% [& u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 @  }5 k" U- i$ K% I! ptoday., }2 I$ t% D( x) S1 F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; U- C8 z* A  O% m- F9 K
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda2 ^0 C  p& [; t, g* H& |
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 }  f2 Z: P/ g
the Greek default.
, N; b) s% ~/ g* S As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:" J9 d0 J" V/ ?7 ~# k8 ?2 V
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# P( b' ?* x8 x3 z; r9 P; x( U2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
0 E! j, s" c/ s: _4 @# e4 o4 {debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! E* A5 u' B) N" X$ L: O3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) p% d% n0 E5 a* vbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& N6 i7 Z) E9 r, |3 X6 K; M
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
! e2 C9 J- ^: W: l) [9 p% S* _  p+ q( q% C
Beyond Greece5 D) z# m8 {( {# k  r4 E5 y' t0 V' B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) y0 R" h7 z. ^" D; o# b
but that was before Italy.
; x" ?- A- C/ B% h; c1 `  s. F It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; l, k4 V6 m6 D$ Z: C" X+ m
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 U$ Y. @5 V; N+ I- jItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 _5 l0 w  D2 b% Y+ G7 b7 A
3 P' q5 _+ z* ~. u( X  c
Conclusion
7 q% {+ B6 h* T& ^! `/ ^% k We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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