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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
; U3 w7 j3 f! i9 S8 QEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
8 s' a+ n. A4 a  o- _, WJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: c6 S+ u9 ~+ G  k  q+ y' ?; z6 S
Signature Global Advisors" A6 d% t6 u& n/ k

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Background remarks" Y0 J) A. s( X
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- j  y0 b1 _' q* ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; U/ r: Z1 {5 ]9 k7 ?2 U
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ `$ A- m* [& F; q' g* k! T4 K" T& cadjustments.* T( z5 @  G( _6 I& u
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 A6 r7 c( Q( J# w6 ]: a
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ w1 a+ u2 M2 M+ m+ B2 H9 x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 W9 O6 p0 V3 F! f5 K7 F$ ?6 @
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; l6 p3 f% G! m. u
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* m! }" v. p( A; S4 w% Nadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 V7 D' x+ H8 ~3 B( }0 R# X3 R4 E8 ^: i- s
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 n9 i2 t8 I# A& y2 i: p" K
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 j. @2 X& V5 ?8 H' z Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# n& b$ p4 O# a% z: F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 Z+ t* p1 f% s/ t; g9 o
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 m  Q, U, b) j( T$ E
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( G& s: U% M) ^2 D; k4 Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" Y( q5 Q) r# c1 k4 Y& u/ y
impose liquidation values.7 z4 i& \. V1 x( X
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 T2 ~: F0 g2 _. VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( l& r  X9 l9 T3 `/ L1 V4 ^3 F
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. W. t1 u1 }1 g) g% Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ A/ W8 e' |6 u" ?, M' J

9 X2 q. x- N: B7 \  VA look at credit markets6 T8 R- w0 d+ p3 m) {  w2 A4 ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 @/ `9 v  r3 s8 Z( o/ f) t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 O9 M- n. W9 ?! Q" ^
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ T8 m8 r9 z' g5 f& e1 ]8 s  h! h
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 Y7 a  X2 s+ Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: f+ _: w6 [6 p+ b, H3 K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 `1 b1 u- O! o2 u/ F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ c1 Y2 ]( t0 e! j" R
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 h: r* V: P) d$ P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 r) F$ X9 e! M: J( W9 ^. c
finding financing.6 H3 g* [1 n9 M0 ^5 V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ d& _. Z# h+ _; Z- y' Z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 H/ U/ u* Q: W* c+ D$ Q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 t! w2 @, J  ]is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' Z. [7 g& K) d0 f, ^+ c* `3 B
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, U' m/ V, ]7 S" Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# ^( z$ J( ~! W( L% ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! [( |0 D! w' X* G. M0 otoday.
. r: {# S6 ~. _( O3 ? Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. e5 [2 e. Y! ?) K; L" u- ^. Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 `4 ~7 [; X5 _: ^; Z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# g. R* W% T/ ~5 ~) a
the Greek default./ D; E& Q& v. O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:" {& h9 H& c7 t* `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ c4 t( m  C( F% G& }7 g% m, C6 |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 i# e! Q& I& b$ l1 l) R$ n
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 i8 P3 i8 p1 q0 B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 y4 m. E& r- g# c, o8 G
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 z: Z$ Q# y; j/ o# w1 |6 s( ^) B
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
5 W4 }) @' A* W0 J8 a- m The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; X1 Y$ x8 C/ x7 f( f. t7 j
but that was before Italy.
: K7 y( L# x+ C4 X" L It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' N: H/ Y6 k! V
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* _7 F6 Z* Y+ z' _: ?
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
* Z. J* b0 W4 s' T, Z6 q" C/ w We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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