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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 b; T; y# c8 j- ^  Y( R# b2 ~! p% ^. ?

) J7 V" ]5 k% g# i/ [, zMarket Commentary) w; K& t2 {( H0 W# S" Y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ y& S1 R! x$ P0 W+ V5 xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' w, `! k$ G+ M0 G- w+ l5 T
Signature Global Advisors" e' ~2 h& T; C& l

5 Y1 w( j8 T0 n% {7 I& r# |& w
: ^. ?* r2 R2 \* y5 v1 XBackground remarks% Q0 \3 l" f) l0 l. J; k
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 X2 A' I# V6 X4 \" uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: I% p) S- O9 h3 ]+ c$ l9 X' H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( y9 M. g; ~, }* N
adjustments.
2 X5 ]! [; u5 T. m  I+ o, n9 ] This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 |3 I; ]3 @2 K/ Z4 X8 H2 G7 M4 Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., r* J+ ]! C6 F3 W4 ]4 Z& c
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* y* Q8 b7 X8 g/ n% v# N7 J1 E
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.3 L: \) H5 b1 I
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( a  M7 Q" v( L) w" {9 q' \# Yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% C& t' l7 e8 i8 [2 Z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 Z7 M( ]7 [* J1 O5 m/ G+ Iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 ?1 v/ e0 ?5 n) ~' Q
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* F+ s  }' f0 \* \ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' W# C8 }% X% i6 Q6 Ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 ^6 y" ?5 r5 j1 |6 q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% \' g3 X9 Z; U. r3 W9 a) W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- X' A6 w* B, m; ^4 r3 L
impose liquidation values.9 I$ c) Z$ C+ S+ t0 J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ @2 h7 [6 h8 g  \5 aAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# L& Y8 j& S8 U7 _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- X/ D( Y/ x0 |% i* M1 Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 f( Q; ^. i/ |5 m" ^8 Z: W8 p
; t& o& x- ^6 k& V( P3 ~$ aA look at credit markets
9 x% `- o; n; e9 L9 `: V8 h Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& d  |6 H, u; A$ ySeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* r5 ^+ s: I. x. c; K. ~4 a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ P3 |0 `8 w5 k1 P, L5 V# h! ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' l' u* e2 ~' f- ~# w/ _0 d, U1 l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 G6 z( b: H& {( J6 z$ a) I& @
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# w3 O) k7 C: ^- g3 `8 C; gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 I& P1 y8 g- X  \1 b7 `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% o9 b- X. b; _6 l. e& T! d6 y3 [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" E& l5 Z1 W4 L) O/ |+ H
finding financing.
5 x+ ~& W8 n. I$ j2 l! { Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 s' u$ Q. p0 b9 e4 q( O" `" vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& s# G% R9 }) m4 E' P
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% G( u* s! S. l! m! M* t: C, Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; T8 {/ F( y0 P7 L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ ~+ m5 i! ^9 O4 r# ]$ ^) R4 d( t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  p/ e& D& V4 K2 w3 Z) V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 F( R3 _0 V; M, O& ^3 I
today.
; U4 i, M: f) r- N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; z# d/ k5 ?7 Y; s+ i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! @5 Q) F/ D$ o7 o& ^: m4 D
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  ^4 W/ I3 f8 k0 a3 e/ rthe Greek default.4 w! O+ _; z# U. R, r5 E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( T, C6 @* W* F7 v/ v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 c- z$ c0 n, a  T2 N" z$ L4 @2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! c% M9 I! q  B6 j' M/ P9 y: \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% e7 y* n# h8 f8 j3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ q  I- U$ N  {: A% q9 H/ {
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 k2 k/ U/ Y3 W$ [4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 P5 m+ l6 K  q" t
/ |! X  m% u& X) c, ]" q8 E' Y- ]
Beyond Greece
1 D! Q! u  k4 l7 J9 y5 B* Y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 t( x" f7 D$ ~. R6 N2 i' u3 e! Ubut that was before Italy.
, A3 v7 Q# y8 \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; R7 n9 e. ~  Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
( z8 t3 ^2 b* V7 r1 W8 yItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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1 |, n, b6 T4 AConclusion
- o( f- E( a7 ?& P2 G0 F# a We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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