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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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9 k$ s" w' P2 @1 hMarket Commentary# e' q7 E% ?# x* }4 h: i- m) w3 ]4 {) z0 j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& X- X) L. d- [) Y6 v4 q. w
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( x# `8 `; U9 w" l" X
Signature Global Advisors; w2 M+ T" ?3 w
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: j. c. k: |! Y, h1 r9 v
Background remarks
0 x: n' L! w9 ?/ Q) C Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
0 ]* y! P% g) Sas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 _9 N/ v3 L% w" d8 Q! R0 I" l* | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' |" g- ~+ {) h* A; m9 @
adjustments.
6 d; p$ w$ {- q/ J- \( c This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; F8 c. l6 O) v8 T5 S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, ]: l3 ?" T9 Y- c4 z* X3 a0 q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. G. y( E& X2 s, g9 `% o, \lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.# X3 ]' ^8 C' k' \& W
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  D$ y: Q' J8 p  n- g' m2 K: gadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 A- l0 k1 S1 n  H7 x2 i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 |  d4 P0 [1 P' [% ?$ F) N: Q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& i+ \- ~" G/ u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ S3 f1 ?2 _8 P0 t& h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 u' u5 s, [& N1 K' q4 D4 areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- S* t3 M1 d$ k, w2 I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 _) r, r: M; x" j8 O! A
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 a# E, D6 ^2 A
impose liquidation values.
; y' Q% Z% s  P8 M, S. w In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, n9 X( i7 S9 y6 O/ d; Y$ ]
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ ~1 D8 `1 ?8 c; _( y" Q- [/ Q. g
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ @4 N- Y4 V( ~4 x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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1 {0 p' P2 }* J/ b! p. sA look at credit markets0 N- V( j" X' x
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 y& W; `/ O4 R, F1 JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 J' L4 s& z& F" h. p5 g+ A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 m0 T6 x  \" l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# v# x" C: y. ?' v- f8 g" s8 [5 `billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 T: r0 z( m1 `( ^' L
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, X* P1 C. W' p. A
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 _3 _! S4 G% H% Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: d6 G: ]$ m7 p1 k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 }5 D$ s- @4 X" n
finding financing.+ M5 B7 g. R* n' G) o
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 Z% m; F  k, C3 Z! k
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ B% ]" W, V8 a) y0 ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 r& }) J, L, O0 d# T- \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! ~. S, d: d' igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( K2 A% [6 r7 V1 E6 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 v! g5 }& \7 D) o& \+ _* Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' `9 R+ ?9 O" N, {today.
$ r) z3 N, y% L3 z0 H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. P. f" x: F# u4 o0 Y8 F; \; Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% w) Q' P3 ?; h9 i
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for6 h2 c. [5 q) C5 Q; z/ |+ `# N# w
the Greek default.
6 N$ j. @" i7 j. W: A: q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 C/ @, x6 ^1 I" \1 {! _0 M1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ ~) ^$ ^6 K+ s# _# ~- b2 g6 l1 r4 G2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- e9 s  a5 x. a& ]2 P/ p( j  [# kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: [0 Y. a2 c5 G( R) n( c) t5 R
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing* b. k3 e7 |. C6 E' J
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: Q1 s3 J3 ~% E  l* o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." Z6 s, P( I1 h0 U
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Beyond Greece
2 F( m  R1 y/ I! m9 | The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 d/ P3 X- X  h. N" T# i7 K
but that was before Italy.9 t# u5 w6 i0 Q9 ]' R( S! a
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." L' j$ q6 Z. d" J2 K
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& x% e1 {* a9 W% e" p
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 \  I. Y; F, t

' H# l% a! p% A. M  ?1 ~Conclusion
5 A! T+ M6 T6 ]+ ?! B: x We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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