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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  S  W* }2 B9 y- Z

* L! W) q  Q4 y2 q1 Z" uMarket Commentary
- ?1 R# S. ~/ H' B4 GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 i/ n2 S& _3 |% s( D
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& K  j5 j; t7 D# t; ]/ |0 ?/ LSignature Global Advisors
7 F5 o  M) p: l; \2 Z( L* [
4 h' D2 R3 U3 c& O6 l' _0 e
0 a% q+ t" Q. g% f! L' VBackground remarks
$ o/ c1 t( N3 L( h4 J: k9 d Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* l/ K# W6 N/ q! ?" Ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: [, H2 P9 b; y, D. V# x5 @2 y) g Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; g3 ?& E. b$ j  j! padjustments.! ^4 o+ r* M/ V; [3 r( _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. K& m7 }# z4 F' p: `safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 X* e. k2 ^* o0 U0 F, n/ M7 f& o Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! c& B2 {( U; @  i, Y$ _, u( I$ nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 Z3 q/ i2 Y4 b+ e# `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 n: Y" p: [. p' T1 @adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! K! A3 y  I  [  e
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ @4 c% \( L! K6 H
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 i4 r* l- n7 I: ?2 @% m# r9 d- I& {
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: b) K# ~, j; S# c6 [+ T- r1 S
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  A* o5 v. R# i) i
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 s, x; y! x' N7 n- O; N& {) c9 t" R
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 m2 k- u; F% N/ G
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( y  U9 s  ?. R. p, d2 nimpose liquidation values.9 B! @9 P  B6 ~- l- e! u* S- M% B1 a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 I  `! ~' q" y, g6 `3 i* h
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# v, F( ]/ c7 Y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 K( @' t! p! c  A( h
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% z1 u4 q/ b0 C& _+ Y

/ g& e3 W: v* l: s0 @2 H$ H2 x! zA look at credit markets1 N6 R8 o3 C7 j$ ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 P# l* J3 j  G  K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, v/ I1 ?2 q+ ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- L- p) ]0 I) J( [# C) Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 u* D5 s' W1 I3 l" p4 Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ H2 w' h! {0 Z+ Y4 Y9 D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& H' n4 x2 C5 _# jCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ f7 R2 s, g$ ^* Q( Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 k1 ]8 R4 Z. D/ I4 n) x7 {
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; \( ]4 x) M' k) X; X8 j4 f( k' J
finding financing.' _9 o2 t* ]1 B
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' F% s- E4 y; u5 d% r* U! p9 f
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' }+ _& M0 f1 ?5 I% y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 I! o4 E% H& g3 p2 [! k8 x# [is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% y, k3 K$ h8 E$ ~' O8 p" h
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  F1 V: f4 t1 f. s, f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# E6 J2 ~9 W7 U" ]8 R3 r European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: _7 Y7 A& {/ |today.: V$ A  e" b8 y  V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) y9 G) Q4 `! H" u) n2 R8 G& O8 ^emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 [9 z+ Z# U# X, O$ `$ L: d# \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* @* e& l& l8 `, T$ D; h) s
the Greek default." r2 c# t  \0 u* d" a
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 [* w  x* O- _7 k" \0 R# m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. X1 X, ?# c9 G) ^) U" ?" o
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ e8 i1 C& s) O0 L3 n0 Q7 cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.( N& u0 h7 {- T
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 d/ n6 J% x5 N2 k1 p2 Pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ i; i- ]" W) v( n9 y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; [! Z, [5 ?) L$ J' v" S) m
+ t* U8 s9 l# q6 f& B+ c
Beyond Greece
0 H* W& g: f5 D+ V; T The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
4 [9 b$ Y8 `) U6 a8 |but that was before Italy.0 L1 x2 ], W/ M' o
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ a* ^! k: U- W: @& n. s It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* O; w, V# `7 v6 J3 `* r2 r2 _Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! N6 U  a! u( c. u0 v8 A- {7 u
1 o2 ^+ b; m7 x0 ~, {+ M
Conclusion8 n6 W) N# X& M% U# v4 {; i
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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