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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  F3 i6 F# v4 \4 c' k0 c( O
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Market Commentary: x( ~/ d. z9 c! @6 _
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) D' g  f8 O4 s8 `5 z# B  W
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 W' _: Z  a8 J3 @* M: y* |3 }Signature Global Advisors7 A- y8 N: `, ]$ A7 f- R

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' ?6 `3 s* P( |, D8 g6 LBackground remarks. z$ l, h: }- M7 {
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
% H. a% g# G6 A) a" Cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 r0 `: q2 f* y! N3 I Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal; P8 i* r& g9 f8 l+ K
adjustments.
, k! |& \1 J  f6 U: Q. c# N3 n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 y0 R0 ?' M- S/ i: Y! f0 I: q5 S5 J1 [1 Csafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 s! ^5 q$ H9 g+ X7 \* |3 n
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 h  ?- J  t- P
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( z$ o6 Y# {$ i9 Z" R2 [6 d
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these/ j/ M3 G& Z- h1 t4 z: Q5 V, t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% u2 y& u! G9 O4 `9 n Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! `1 a7 \$ B7 `* s3 e' F, |* L! G  mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# x8 W# ^! U) `' @9 { Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* r: h' T9 Y3 d5 L
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 T( [0 n, _) @4 R- s/ _4 rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 v( m  X8 Y% C8 F0 V/ Q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 s7 }' W& |: ], [; e2 M5 [. _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' ~- i; S6 ]8 }
impose liquidation values.9 L: `. V* P7 W% L4 s
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  s' K: q4 L- X" Z6 w7 I8 a, ~August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 g# Y8 e! j; o" q' v) M+ f The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 e: X" s+ ~6 I2 L( Lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 x1 ~& M- \+ f. N3 k8 v

5 f) w. O5 S/ lA look at credit markets
" k9 o$ h0 U# o+ ], L5 C6 i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 O4 N+ X1 p6 p6 K# w. E) PSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# R4 b6 i  z8 Y2 J( o* p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 d+ E8 |. L) J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 T' D( ?! a1 V2 e1 tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 Q5 z& A5 `4 ^5 s6 t+ }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 w& C2 \  G' P& I* SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# r% L/ I2 g6 N/ H* w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( D' F& h. h# |& D/ p3 ]% L/ v
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 T, b: c, E* }  V
finding financing.
5 X  R2 i$ i2 V: {" p, L/ Y# |  n! ` Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 m9 `; U5 F+ q: x. q- b( l/ Awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 j: r& \: O8 D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* o. |& B/ e, F8 t1 _6 ]1 P6 d
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; k, _! Q( Z. X' f$ o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 I" ]9 n8 b3 M; ]+ x
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) u& G& T& h: A8 H* I) f! ~ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% u/ G* K( a" E/ E0 t% x0 Ctoday.. f4 [; d% I* D2 u5 f" @
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- {$ M% m$ l5 g: j; Y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& ^7 `. b1 X9 o: p7 ~ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 I# y4 n3 x+ d" P( P: T
the Greek default.  V* \) }# e8 b4 v6 b
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 K9 K7 W" q8 l- ]4 k0 R4 `0 S" o1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 M* T$ [( w8 Q  G$ f2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ L5 U/ E2 n9 K8 Q0 @debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- J3 R* X( t2 ?, a4 g3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 \3 r6 ~) {+ _8 {4 W$ r5 p; x5 P
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 q; I2 }6 T  D0 g: L) ^5 m, G9 P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( N1 a7 ?1 b2 {! F# b9 z
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Beyond Greece( b  y& w$ R3 K) j; V
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- |3 \, G) x3 B! O; @7 @! ?$ Fbut that was before Italy.- l: J: p! h8 H3 `* X8 e; {
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ D7 D* d7 u) _& {* z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 D. v$ y0 X2 `5 c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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5 W3 U0 F( S2 i2 f# E1 {# {Conclusion
5 `* v8 a; x* R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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