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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation3 f# w1 J+ c! h& g* F6 |& _
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ ^9 v& V5 o6 |/ t0 \( F
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 e1 s# I4 W8 B6 _0 g
impose liquidation values.' c3 z6 J. C1 d& J% @* R9 f
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 R1 M9 l5 i5 h9 l9 u5 ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, j. c/ m0 e3 B2 ]/ `, f The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! i+ x- j3 H) K: }/ T
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 \- E9 t0 k/ r
1 Z/ {9 o3 ~( x+ `' VA look at credit markets
6 n [/ _" ?; b, k9 G6 S# t; `7 @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 u- R9 g! e% s. u! q$ l
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ U: P* p! z* y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 ^7 f) B5 a2 @4 C* z; m5 G+ N& r
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 g, k6 k; E& [7 `billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, Z9 I% H8 m( k1 W2 Y6 \7 F
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 t/ t" U9 [% B# J: oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are j7 z: z" v' @/ H% |! l# S- b) h
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 ]+ w8 R& \5 j) ], q F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' G+ L# p) [3 u3 X6 s3 n; l' [finding financing.9 I' f9 y' u- `5 [: x- W
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 c b5 u+ ?6 L; kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! ]5 u- ^5 Z6 Y- Z! w/ F
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, s1 |9 B) w6 I9 Y" qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" t$ d) l3 ?$ S) K- f3 |5 e/ a5 |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 ?) O- Z3 }" V" ~" Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( t; N: R% O3 f! P. y. ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 B1 s# ?# T5 p" q( }" [today.
- M! p! f1 r$ k( `: w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 x; G2 F4 J7 i" Q
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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