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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, i& U5 |! ^, i* E, X  x* X9 y
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Market Commentary" F! L0 z. s/ C% j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 F4 l) `; P: X6 a
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 H; |* m1 g/ a; {3 R" B9 p! X6 |' jSignature Global Advisors  f/ \3 `% s6 ]

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Background remarks
7 L1 c) W2 A5 Q4 q! X1 T3 Q1 k& t Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( F) q4 S/ `$ S: A3 X+ k2 \as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 I( T2 R8 r2 B( t1 U4 [$ u& B
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 M, m; [$ H# H: k$ T$ D! iadjustments.
* S* g2 q* \% t8 A# { This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, A, P' |3 _, R( P* P4 W+ ~safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* V. V% u' e5 L% |/ v, H$ t0 \, O Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; ~3 A/ C+ R5 b9 }lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& f( i5 ?% z2 g4 \* E We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% q  Z9 t, i0 D0 J% @7 k' a5 h
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' L0 g4 k9 ?1 d" ] Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# `/ \2 L) }/ dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 P3 M, ]6 U5 J- o
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& R8 \" O' p  N. [  W& U1 ~ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 n( H" ?* I8 k: {0 M  x: kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation% i/ a  U3 X# ?3 {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) h3 e  [. M. Q, U& I* q6 r+ Has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 T' a5 d- B3 e/ ximpose liquidation values.
2 j) m: Z+ v0 I( e9 O! U3 X( q: X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 t& V3 G2 ^. A
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ V% \" O+ F! j The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) d2 B8 N7 }3 B) J( C  g% n" Z! h0 o1 m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: f$ P3 w6 S1 n/ w3 j" m
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A look at credit markets# N8 {. z$ a- d2 q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ U$ q  E* P! k; _  Y: h6 OSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) C5 E/ L0 `1 ]
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 }, y* C6 P7 N% |% s9 n5 E& y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ Y% q! F( U' E) f* Z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 V& h  }6 Q3 }& c& ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( l$ |! ?3 t0 o; N5 u$ h* ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are  }7 J1 a4 w% B. e- g8 R. B! d% [8 Z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 s/ M3 p0 A6 x% @3 A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* @7 c0 R) s. e+ Pfinding financing.
! V9 i) b2 P- v8 ~/ g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* ?3 Y3 L3 Y  O- vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 G6 n, g4 c- Q6 _( N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. j: m4 V0 u. K( \. T: n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; ~$ e: n1 \) q, R# qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 K& P8 o* V- _4 y+ l+ l
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- b5 o  w4 L% P' S( t1 W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* r1 s/ \4 v- T4 Q
today.+ l3 x5 L6 ^4 J5 d3 C
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ d/ j. X+ Z3 D0 l' d6 ]2 eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda$ q1 X# a! V4 w0 U  W
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 i% e: d' I; E" g1 [( C
the Greek default.
( H# T! ?* s' Q9 _& v6 L As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 H* n$ b& ~! r/ B2 Y0 _$ ?8 u( m1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ m- T# M0 j! _; `- r3 O! `6 D2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign; ]. ]8 A8 {9 p/ C" A. g. K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 y( r5 e# Q% M+ k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ C  n2 P) {& W8 c" S3 p9 K. @
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
& q* A. B. ?% C+ w& ~4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 j8 B, c) u) e5 T$ m( G
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Beyond Greece% O7 T1 w  h+ l( y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. t+ Q; I# d, e: q0 Obut that was before Italy.
! p. C2 F7 T% f! b# { It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 i/ S  v, Y$ b
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 y: f  G  s; h  t7 r4 [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., X* Q6 F  E# ]  Z! k' d" r
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Conclusion9 n; o  c* q9 E6 E$ U
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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