市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
3 b1 n$ y6 [& V* w. ^9 f
4 ]  _* p/ H8 ]5 h6 L( I; I# FMarket Commentary
' a1 q: X4 @) b4 ]9 mEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& G# S6 q* U5 r$ O4 r7 mSignature Global Advisors
* Y6 w" M' R7 U( B5 A
/ e+ D( O# o4 Y: c
: x& c+ }, j: }6 n6 XBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 Z' _& ]9 s. l* |. yadjustments.
" L4 D; Q& a! Q. p- P, A1 n* I This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 m$ U2 a+ [7 V6 U7 h, |& T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: T$ @1 a5 u2 M3 F- w% }" e We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 b" v. O5 ^1 w3 U0 m+ [; V. n/ fadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# W2 n! c; k$ U- P% I# V$ [ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 B4 N  Y: O$ k' Z% A$ `quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ H7 X; K, }4 g! j4 lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
% B, f; i( R0 O9 [) L The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 m* l' P1 E: y* j- D# A  z' R6 Pimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 K- @. G3 M3 m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

( L6 N9 D8 p1 f1 ^8 fA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  {1 B$ K) F- }: M) A5 x! \ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 Z! h* j: Z) P/ Y. C1 P9 C+ _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
- Y- C) U( ^0 Y7 f8 x) N Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 P  A7 z1 E' ^3 Q5 fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, L* t0 c# e& M, u; }going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 M' _: H/ i( `' ], I) [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' K2 _! g: l) k! D7 c6 Ktoday.
: B7 h2 W: {8 W- X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
# Q7 F1 U4 O; N$ Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 F5 U, r( o  y- A8 o0 W5 Ythe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 W+ ?. P2 k; ]2 o: ]& O/ T1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) h6 m* C: \' X: Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! O# H4 W. T$ K) wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

. c+ C" g* A/ P4 Y( TBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ ]7 @6 r! q+ _+ E$ x5 Y- w/ q# o) Vbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
0 X; N5 d# L8 K; ]* n6 L7 q
Conclusion
7 u8 R9 Q) p5 l: P3 u1 T2 ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan