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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 K; q0 y8 V) f6 u- g8 R5 a

1 `3 s% u% b! [. x0 m& G9 Q* MMarket Commentary" U( c+ K( S2 R8 [6 ~' t  J3 o
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% i; }% O+ i' y, X6 a. O: NJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ h1 {5 p8 x% i( MSignature Global Advisors
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( m: t4 s  X+ s5 t  U9 oBackground remarks' S! m5 c* Q. r' c
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are1 C0 i5 j/ B- I8 O# U# b
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.: `/ |& R  ]1 p$ |! z# B5 C- [
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. z4 p8 R. }7 @
adjustments.
7 P, {( _: k8 x0 b3 k This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 m( x7 S  H: |0 fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  Y4 g: O; {, T, Z
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; L# a; f( l7 x2 Q# k- |lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; W' B% Y3 |, i$ z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 p9 Z$ ~$ j/ ~7 Padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- g5 ^* g! k- x2 n* m! U
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ h6 T9 V  ^; \# W! H3 }quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* C7 n7 R- }1 n, ?& b) G- A6 \ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 T, p+ x, D# T9 K Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 E6 n. s6 G6 R4 L: M& sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 Z+ K' L( t0 `6 N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  N1 |% b% a/ L- ]
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) v+ i! i9 A% L( Rimpose liquidation values.
5 H8 I; O) G) w+ g/ m: S7 b0 J( y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 x! A1 J9 p# \& Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 A5 e6 t/ N. k
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 H* f- }. s; w. i7 K0 r9 z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets" D  {3 a4 K1 H/ u, |
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 b8 `% \; y  `, h. o( USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- V7 O) u. G$ Q& d  L4 o" G High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! p7 q- s/ [" q% R/ sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& L4 c  ?0 r- @; k4 g  r
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* b! l3 H. M4 C1 G' r4 w% Iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) B$ n4 J  Y$ I( n- _+ h- ]1 fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 t; @: P" j/ u( r: _! Q( @
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# q1 R* V/ O( q. Y! t Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 v" B: a  c6 Q) j/ [6 l* Y) d
finding financing.& {# f. S0 p4 H' n3 v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. J# C3 Z0 m: R2 B. r; o3 p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# |9 K5 ^. k* V) F
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' U% W( N) a+ r. P) e% Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 j$ X2 o1 W# g* r3 tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# e3 z6 u" @: E  p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# Y. ~" ]: c# F: q% C+ [  H European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 i9 u. {- B2 p0 e$ p2 m; U" n
today.
* X( ?6 p  y3 T. ~7 g  ^ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  Y& X5 d2 E! Q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda# i- D4 n0 h5 p: g  ?: d
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 k8 C' C" M; R- O. y1 `the Greek default.
7 Q; O, Q$ J) \) S As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 P3 K- ?+ K+ W9 }$ [. F6 d. c
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  X( P! d+ R6 M! _! d! S2 `
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: h- X  w1 V' Q. ?debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( ?: N" j) S4 J: @  a
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 \0 Y9 l$ c; w3 A6 u6 A. cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# q7 n, Y) }  c9 X6 @) D
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. x. f9 A: T* R1 j, A( R% J/ ~
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Beyond Greece
; |( Z% j9 m1 o The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 s0 t8 q5 Y. g" _6 s
but that was before Italy.
0 Y( F. C4 u  H: @  s2 V It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# c! \$ w7 j3 v! f3 C It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* {5 p! P) A( P2 H7 ^9 c( x8 A
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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