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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ F& p2 q6 |# a1 W+ l
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Market Commentary" n! Z% d- i' K2 ^
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- p: ?/ d6 |& c3 `2 j7 g' V0 I% s
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- }# d3 @4 @+ ?9 y+ ?0 o* _& {Signature Global Advisors! W5 F" N3 O. p9 C5 g! F8 H; c

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4 U! [' I# j& {. T/ Q- ?. oBackground remarks
8 Y" Z2 K, h% u! j+ s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ W- Z% l  \9 `) ?+ P5 D
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
( l. I' m/ Z& s" h1 i' } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal/ d& Z6 k# b# ], x
adjustments.
- I/ K) Q$ s1 {0 s& A1 } This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 U8 P7 i& d/ S: G4 Q% N3 o3 \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.2 O( i- Z6 S9 d" e( l# |
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% ^2 l) i& G& U7 blessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- D: b( X* i* \5 p9 u/ g, j
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these- m, ?+ o9 Z" [7 y2 _! I; N
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& p! |2 y6 q% r9 {
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! x* N9 O+ U& p! Mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 L/ L1 Y3 n' x, u1 F# j( ^: ?
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% L/ J8 v; l, X" B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ ?6 y/ {& n" {/ Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- ^& D7 \9 j' a- a
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 g- j. N% G" M  k$ S0 C9 Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: [! A7 ]$ {3 p' Q* s$ _, P- c3 x
impose liquidation values." b+ b3 J. U5 `, y/ H
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; |, {- F# l/ H  ]
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) ?$ W6 ]4 Z3 a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- G+ [) c0 u/ {/ Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
5 e) n& B4 C) ]+ J0 `) I( y+ g2 N+ t1 k) _7 i
A look at credit markets, N: r: W' K' @" g" _* J3 L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: P% d5 t" ^0 X7 w& d1 f. i
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 x! |/ K5 S$ X) `7 K; k% p, g: a" m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 {3 F% d) }: T" _. o5 L/ _then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% o5 q3 R* i4 W6 C" n
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 s* Y: o& w+ _- X7 [& raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 |. ~( w0 H( E, q0 j) u8 J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# n+ x3 r, C/ K- V
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- z1 c% y2 k( i0 d Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# q7 `6 m) d8 M0 I8 Y8 Ffinding financing.+ E) ]% m5 i$ I+ K. {. I2 W' z! \6 i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; s- H$ F' k* J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 Z7 X# Z1 b4 z4 n$ E9 [: p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, H2 ~' O- ]- _6 Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! z8 o& x" P9 M" b0 O3 m# V5 A0 Sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( e- }+ {6 X2 ?! I8 C% W; m
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; i( o4 J) m  `" Q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ V, q4 B$ Q7 M5 L% l
today.9 |1 p. i0 [. @. Y6 f) g$ B& u
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( g% V2 r4 Q6 temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
$ l( W* Y5 O, @) M* G& n Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 Z9 X  `' d. m. Q& h4 S
the Greek default.# i0 a* T  F+ d* Q. ?4 S2 Z
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ h4 a* v  R8 G1 b
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! M6 \( Z2 a1 W% }1 f2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: h$ p8 X9 P4 L1 g9 V) U9 q: b
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; \! n3 i1 W/ n* [" k: ?3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 ?& O5 r6 J/ Y1 i: a2 b" t- qbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! X# l4 _4 b9 `# R4 k9 J) Y( y% w" |
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: q% c! i2 b  [- ^

6 |1 [" S/ U7 N/ D7 s1 dBeyond Greece8 ~5 ]2 Y4 ?8 h2 J
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* p, L- ]$ Y; Y! t# Y% U/ C: hbut that was before Italy.* y" {3 ]) F9 m1 d9 s' v
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ |7 ^! c9 ]( e4 @- Q2 N
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the" l( W# \1 s0 a9 R" n5 v0 c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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. y* R, [; Y0 p! u: v0 i/ [Conclusion
/ y9 D4 w/ F* R4 R, h We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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