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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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& }; V2 m1 O: N* j: VMarket Commentary% s0 g( f  ^& u1 g% F
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( C5 P# W$ w4 Z/ g6 a! ?# ~3 L
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% G  o! {* _& {4 x
Signature Global Advisors
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" r9 u" n6 }- hBackground remarks
6 _! w# I5 e& k( m% g. s& H# v Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- @2 ]/ t2 z& \6 u+ z
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ _' S. s& Z8 Y6 q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, j) _* M3 N( r  Q( ]3 p, madjustments.$ L' Q  o0 ^0 ~& W  Q3 `+ J
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social# h- M  n- s5 \  T
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 x! n7 }1 H" ]- n# X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* o4 y# m2 q  g4 B8 L" c, I! flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% c. o! `# K' k6 l( P
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  |0 e2 D" |3 `2 T! i$ S1 f
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: o# F/ a7 h8 B
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% z' g5 H% v3 s4 u' f$ ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 F- L) Y1 P& F: F( u" z# q, Q Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 ]+ I+ o1 y* S( h8 e9 K, l Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* F1 r; ]" m  T2 V' c9 X8 v
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 y  _" n- _% j8 p; Z- ]; Y( ]5 H
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 O* q+ ]! `% F2 C0 [" G0 c
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( l( E" S6 S) J/ d: Wimpose liquidation values.! x$ n; j6 W. ^: P7 x# K% [3 Y  ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& \3 d5 g7 k8 X& w! w
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., ~( c( S6 G2 ^/ Z2 s% {$ {7 \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# U! f# z3 W( ~2 w& Z* l7 y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets% |& g5 T1 a# u2 ]" i6 G8 ?
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 A4 o$ N) Z! v2 G
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 J7 ?' s. A/ S  L
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 ^/ ]: J  B) i# W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( Q2 B2 p2 U7 ^6 A
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& l1 U; i( m6 ]0 ^' Y
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# R2 s$ ~+ R5 p( m4 \* i( m  zCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 o3 L. e& X6 ^- Z+ ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 ~% k5 Q" U9 z0 a- j
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' _1 f) T7 d/ X: f% o+ nfinding financing.6 @' ]- l( `; r% ?* P- Z3 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 b% B! X- U% M, f" W/ vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# q# G' C, J  c- W. s/ F/ T0 v' P Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 n  R7 d1 h6 D+ g8 mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ N% h9 b; z: O# }: J* b: g7 r" k
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 x- g' c# [( }+ f" F& v. M
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; f( Y3 q$ m/ o( v- C' R, F2 s1 v European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ ^' D/ j/ O/ t  D4 t9 B' f# W
today.7 h4 X6 B2 ^+ M9 ^
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. @4 `/ o$ W# I. |
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' P6 v+ W2 W  f/ C$ b Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. }, W  d) }' U* v0 D
the Greek default.
: @7 k6 O3 b; ]) Q2 i; N* h As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) j) \/ i" I8 K! ?5 ~1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 A# v  k: E  A5 g& D; x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ e/ H1 G! U) f' H# K3 pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ _. f. W  v& ^, k0 J; y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( j+ P2 Y6 a  Y2 }8 @banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 w: g2 v& E+ p0 y7 V  ?4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 \, |3 F1 I) ]" S/ K% z
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Beyond Greece: \: g' C' o+ `* O: F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ ]6 z* M; h' l  rbut that was before Italy.2 r3 A9 F8 N$ F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% q. w, L! W: x. c% {1 ^& l8 b
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ y5 ?+ H) @& Z3 ]Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion' j0 E* V) C/ q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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