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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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# _& Q  ]; N0 ~Market Commentary
3 Y1 T2 K% a& u8 u" Q0 X6 AEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 P2 D2 T/ m: [! Z: s8 c* @3 b7 f, k
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& U0 d+ A" H$ W: m( mSignature Global Advisors1 E( d% p6 M9 T1 M0 X1 _
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Background remarks
& N" g' n1 T: `4 K0 P% G$ w Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
: |2 j1 i5 p, i+ ?as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# ^; ~$ o; u! Z( u% a& Z6 J" F Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 n8 U9 u- P$ E; W! p! p0 M: S
adjustments.5 O0 w" D% H" b3 z& r0 [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) R( ~  `9 x9 I( L
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ b3 {2 f5 B5 u2 t! g
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) I4 ]6 J3 M+ J! l
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ _, B% r* K+ }2 U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  a  a) s- ~4 W4 W2 p; x3 O8 q  c
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ |8 c+ [) q) |3 D7 P! N Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ f2 A( I$ J: @: s" ]quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 \5 _  p* B% z5 N Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ V' `1 p# d! M Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: N4 z! f: o& c0 J% X% W" G
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: O  S1 w3 p% ~3 ^# \ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 Q% L5 R' N4 o2 v0 j6 x0 G  B0 q/ las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" T- V! ^( p- k  Iimpose liquidation values.  R9 i; [& ~: t8 O0 _& p& J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; p3 j: p& k) p, x6 FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) s: n' y4 o: @9 k* g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. H9 X+ [" o' A, e0 v0 ~5 L% B7 iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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) v  i* Q% c! H4 O2 D8 r. ?' tA look at credit markets
* _- h; [( h6 _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: u) B1 a8 }0 n# D! L2 j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- V2 e8 z  F' L4 O  K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( n3 f7 }$ T6 F7 o$ k1 z! s: Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) w4 k- H7 _2 U) B8 M2 O4 k7 Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 t1 O% f, {" s+ q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( U; L7 V% }. D  X
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% m3 g( S8 l. m6 u/ E, Q6 g
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 Y8 K& o8 j7 X# X
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. T1 m* t0 }* f+ {9 J* bfinding financing.4 k3 g. J. N+ z) e# i# j# F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) J/ E4 X9 w$ F0 J+ E. E8 _5 B/ W
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# F/ a0 Q7 Q% y( M( ]% G
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: X6 t+ W' u/ S# Z8 R8 kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 R; ~( L: B4 X% B7 p3 ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ P  P! a' B! g, Y' }bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 R, Z9 j0 Q: _* T0 ?2 C9 B5 B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' s1 x# \# l7 z6 v  x% r. r, z+ Qtoday.; c  q; v0 c$ [6 A6 e/ U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. x! R6 s7 _+ _# o
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" y9 U$ O7 W1 q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; {" I) n+ j! E, V" d
the Greek default.
" l7 q& @9 [0 I As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! E8 d: D: _  }& q3 |. |8 C! R
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! ~6 e4 \3 _+ B, k2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; W' D; w$ [/ |0 }- o( `* K8 \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ a6 v( }% L1 @  K7 M+ p9 Z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 P  S' |) K& e1 B# X
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 t) W! Z" t/ J8 m
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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, O! i" h! ]$ K$ m# c$ @* q  W! xBeyond Greece8 e! [1 v7 g8 D: B* c
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* b6 K6 e: Z" T# L$ L$ k
but that was before Italy.
( G' j! y- z4 ^) O4 z8 A: `. m It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 {) z& f$ h, a' i
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ m, x, D3 _6 ^% {# [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 s; z& k+ @9 M2 }
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Conclusion
# z: l9 p+ w' |0 |( o0 _- ?) l We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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