 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
' y5 z: Q9 y5 Z! s& Q" I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& I! ], `, K0 Aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. \- M, K5 k6 I k; r2 O
impose liquidation values.
' V z W( f5 e3 D7 e- o In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! h N( F' z2 |' R: d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 n# x1 _; U' O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. T. d; ^& R$ Y5 w* p- ~
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
* I1 ?6 {/ s0 G! D( Z/ U8 [( a: n( _
A look at credit markets I1 E* X0 q4 E' X& p! |8 F% G9 X* c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ e+ F& ]# b4 O) z) @6 F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# ~& V& `" W& g% H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, }5 C' L1 p6 Q6 S& `; sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, {6 E9 u7 C5 X% B2 F t$ P8 ~. N1 P
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 n6 P9 O2 ~1 S8 m1 t& E* Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 f1 S/ L6 u2 m3 d8 _" }, D
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ X" C1 I* u/ }8 spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 y4 A# h/ i# s/ V* I
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble `" p+ f" F. @! W2 Q. ^
finding financing.* Q2 v% L, w8 h3 H
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. u+ R: |) e( swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ F* W& K8 \6 S$ k5 v2 }
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 \5 ]+ }1 V6 Z# f' n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# u1 T% w2 v" X# |9 {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% M5 Q. _6 W8 m5 M
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& l8 v" O. j7 D) B8 g1 K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 Q0 B) V! n: P4 _5 L3 A
today.6 E% H+ |+ z' ?( ]
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 o4 ~- M9 k- oemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|