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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' z8 k" o; I' b( C( a
& S6 H% h1 ?! ~" C1 v' R6 V2 n
Market Commentary
$ q2 y- d9 k& qEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: P1 g, P: W' e/ ]. f* u4 g$ M
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 `$ x) U, h& m7 ESignature Global Advisors
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6 K; ~( ]( f. ?7 Q; \- J: \1 X0 R, \
Background remarks
4 d# E" ]+ [! m* k/ M& R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* \5 j# h! R7 U' t9 E) w( U/ j! Xas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& }& k+ M. a+ l/ b( i2 [
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 O9 r) D5 c; ]  m, d' S& c
adjustments.  m% {& {! @) d/ {1 w
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, Z+ [1 t% `+ @* N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 m/ k& O9 ^" s3 m3 z* q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% |( J  a& v  w& R3 B' {
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- ?. t( M1 c7 o
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 ^+ N( ]4 A( s" @8 h8 |adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, T; u- H# M! N% V& c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 C* @; o( P) b' {) q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. z( y0 [4 U2 L& N Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ {- u% P* {6 ]& s( r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' x% {; `: [# r0 L# L+ d$ U1 U! X
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 y2 k9 O" `% y/ L The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, N3 ^) f0 p' f* \; ?& S- S9 O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 M! y: g( P9 S) ^4 K3 rimpose liquidation values.
  T. Q: q0 F- U; Z- }/ T9 m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 P0 c7 O- M( s0 |  d# S
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 J! ~4 B4 `- E/ v) y' `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 z; B& ^- h  }% S. V- y' b+ }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets9 _- P+ l4 G5 O' X
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# e0 |7 D+ F: Z5 `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# r8 h& ~& d  m* o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 @# ~: ^( V8 `% n4 J! h9 v8 P
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 o; Q' ~" E! I, B
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; z2 _; p, A5 W2 K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( P0 s1 A" Z: nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# {0 V" p! a) m% x/ d6 a- y9 ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 F  R8 {) U9 E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 V# }* p" _  O: s
finding financing.
. {% \* O: ?; u, M& u Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( n: p% l1 |1 N( @" gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 v: d, ^7 _5 D1 C5 e: V0 _1 x Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! T9 r* S/ w& \
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 S" N0 z4 D0 i1 A
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ ~8 u+ C- G& ~7 Z  a/ ^4 ]5 o
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& E; {( j+ Y5 m7 f6 u" U European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 L$ A! H0 ^1 S4 G. otoday.
7 b: w$ T+ t5 | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; }! }5 q5 _7 ^7 n  S9 \& I) M
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! l0 s9 u. {4 Q4 Q% P! q- m6 X5 y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 c% Z2 h0 |, p2 [' ?5 b1 d- Q1 Xthe Greek default.8 g- D/ L. |) a0 W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 x; z5 O2 B' b$ c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ Y" p8 q9 B$ b' C0 s: \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# n+ j4 ^9 ?, V, B/ K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 p4 c4 J' g( T2 `4 _" L
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ t0 n% D) P) L; sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ k9 U7 v+ g5 m: D- {% i" B
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ |/ [& X) }4 S; {

- @3 U1 z* }4 z- V- EBeyond Greece' f+ X- f: j: X1 r( V5 o
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 _+ n: i; G* U4 J4 }  f' T7 _
but that was before Italy.! r5 _8 w* E" x; z- E
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 A" u* q7 o+ x4 Y% A4 p5 }
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ h3 @# s& O/ O" ~" S' DItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., S9 N6 q! I5 g2 j" p4 L, X

$ `$ p8 K' j* E# t9 fConclusion
$ G4 o7 X8 @, G0 H# z( r1 R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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