市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
" f( H; `' w: a( ^Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ F+ A3 J' g$ D4 B9 g  H3 \9 x5 uJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors


Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( C2 d8 h4 b  z8 V' I2 E# ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 t6 `1 E) n6 Q0 n) Eadjustments.
) T, y0 R9 `" Z3 ~, H" G( v- W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 e& _! `$ H7 x! ^* a& m: [ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# S) T. q4 D) q' _: @9 r. [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% ?2 }& j7 f: K! W* n0 D4 n: z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 _; D9 x8 C) s* g" c+ b5 w/ t Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& H9 S% K1 L  b1 treduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
; {# m2 y0 i, f. f0 [0 f The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ ~4 G; i7 [( j9 z: V+ Nimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 {/ j; D4 c0 t9 gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) r8 p* Y* r; A& e2 V9 a" Lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

  i& h) y$ L7 X" v( ?; A4 \A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- F4 d# z9 h( pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% m) Z2 W' Z, k- ]5 D* Sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 n* B6 w- w: [$ ~3 h1 g' r0 c: upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
% K9 \" m! M( G3 K+ _" \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! d; y/ I: X) k7 D! I3 Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 q) w6 Z0 e0 }, E! |is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 p& X0 C& J& g1 fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
: g  X) o' ~$ Z. O Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
. k; x7 Z! G- y" w0 [4 i- d As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  A2 p$ i) [/ w8 J& ^1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& g, P8 p! K( E# b- Q/ z% J" Rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( M' Z$ J+ [* b; _, c( Q+ F* G5 Ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
9 q  F- W& v5 K$ F  Y+ e0 `  }; B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
: e9 ^& d0 h2 i4 b) {# D, a It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% ?3 S1 ]  i! ]& C" N/ hItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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8 }8 i/ o& K! J2 j2 p# K4 e/ B1 WConclusion
4 f" ?/ E' T& v0 Y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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