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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation( _' v& a0 J, T& U+ U& V
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 Y- p4 J( \7 k7 Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( s4 E, S% l* p! v$ X
impose liquidation values./ u6 {( N- v3 `$ e i9 I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 }4 w- ~. ?2 G2 c% n: @, v( y' V
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* h3 k- J: i! D( U3 F) S; b" Z' N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ z& A5 y& e# l4 s% X. B' escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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% P# a& m/ i1 EA look at credit markets- M8 @5 ^ S \! F) Z! \& d# I
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# e) W3 b$ ]' C: C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 R! V" j( a+ T% v/ Z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" w) g- [" d( n+ b& U; t2 M$ {
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 w3 B! d. N6 s5 w( Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 K8 R9 u2 V2 M1 e- h: aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ @% L& A% a! y9 K* _' R* SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 z+ J! O; ~5 ^5 L/ @- fpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- i2 |) r! B+ }5 x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 Q4 ]5 R$ J4 N4 b9 K( Kfinding financing.
3 k4 k5 Y+ C$ o8 w2 p4 F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 L4 }% k3 |1 @
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 d1 X' b! W2 F/ @; `, {! l: G' @ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 S" c1 F, x6 r6 q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 v* Z+ ?. G4 t: a* d1 }% f
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, e1 }. `8 i. E; _4 P$ b' w3 @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 q5 s" ]& Q% X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 b1 T7 I8 U; a7 F" E2 c" F1 j; @today.: H' ~0 ^# @6 U# `& ~4 S" Q7 Z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. q( w9 }/ V" s+ C5 Lemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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