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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& }+ s# e' N" F3 f/ e- W% w3 [: `

9 p8 f* ]3 x: f4 I/ IMarket Commentary
4 A% d* O6 L6 O* `/ OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: ~8 w7 I4 W; |8 S! E
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! G! s3 d; q5 V  W1 qSignature Global Advisors& W1 n: G0 n6 e
& b7 M( @, g: ]: i( ]
2 ]) p2 j4 x6 ^) w7 k$ a1 I
Background remarks
; F, \6 |$ L% F+ u9 s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 v- V+ S; T! V# ]! b
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' d% _% c; o$ | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 [. `! w" |: X7 z0 P
adjustments.
5 A+ \+ @  k' z& C& K This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: X6 f" y! J1 E0 ~+ Msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% @. m$ _5 U  ^5 x6 f+ C! T/ K
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  F; e/ i3 H4 g' R9 I  V0 q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.. w* S4 Q, M1 v) I3 v6 @3 F0 y. ]
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) A6 S5 Q$ J8 A6 f( o
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 ]; |' v; w. O/ Z+ N* b: R6 u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 I/ r: ?. U- O5 S! Q7 Wquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 c; b) z7 l; o- H& s$ R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 B2 |2 V3 ?# C; A4 O Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- E, Q% @! q& c3 O* d( d7 k6 Ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 h% H3 U9 z. L4 e The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 o# o, m0 @' I: c8 N6 J) ?$ bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( }4 |" M' z) p- r! N' X# d, U( S) @impose liquidation values.
" q7 s% o0 \# `: D. Q% R In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 c% F+ J# S% I- ]& f; N* CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- i* y% |9 p5 r, `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: O3 O/ V/ H% a/ x0 G7 Y6 u
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( `; c' Y- C4 X* I" a

. H4 h/ g/ Y9 y3 H: {A look at credit markets
5 w- I, X3 e3 S Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 e. e% y% v& B  C, k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ s8 z% S  _- C9 x. ~" S  F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%, A- V9 L$ [  U. k2 Y0 _$ y) K
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% j7 n# e1 B! v8 ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# b8 _7 R: M0 Zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 M( E- t9 a$ r1 S' a; C1 d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 d8 C2 J9 z7 O* Vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% r9 x- ]! Y$ f3 h) T, V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 k" Y" n% v  X' k! h( u, V  S# Nfinding financing.
- ]6 t) F/ F  E+ D8 x Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ q! X2 }: C1 s' l. q2 {were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 F* I, P! _% W+ ]  B, ^" d
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  n3 y+ P7 \$ d# E$ C. L7 Ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 z5 z1 a0 {8 cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; b* n9 u# U5 o, Y  f5 b, G
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 m: [  j  Y; e' r9 c
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 c4 T+ h5 I7 R; T8 ^/ c. e6 H
today.
2 d, g# s5 y# V) {/ m  ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  n% z# _: K- W8 \8 u- ~9 n( `: b
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 m( x9 k  U9 E, r- `, e% A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 r5 u1 J! G7 l3 a
the Greek default.$ T3 A  v% Z% Y. X9 D4 c
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* p/ D; e' X/ F, Y& f, ]1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 c, K0 L% `- U0 X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% O2 W7 _0 s. T: k6 E6 S2 Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.) h  W" ^  o+ f9 e8 B+ a8 e
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: {* |3 K7 }/ \' f; lbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# o3 {' Q1 z  Q( v3 P
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% _) r( i" E# ]. n& T
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Beyond Greece( S4 C$ p% N4 F( k
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 a* B0 U1 F5 \8 J3 U4 fbut that was before Italy.) F# L" U* m9 o+ Q8 C" [
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* `7 N' Q  }- N9 y2 E/ r$ I
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ N; I) w; M. e7 Z! T3 J
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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1 \' Q! T' R' m2 r1 [# s9 u# aConclusion
$ u! o! i/ O* H# N0 |, v  P; Z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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