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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary3 @" t+ m# C$ C4 Z3 f, X) W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# Y  z$ Z+ o( Y9 {! ~James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& l4 ~+ e0 b. m0 J! p9 X
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks0 y/ K  f$ t; ]
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( ]' Z; N; m2 T/ G
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 f" E) X0 q. |7 [, P Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal, H- b+ D- ]# \1 Q
adjustments.% ^5 M" v' U* F  j9 t
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 o! C5 y! C6 k6 u9 j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% H3 J% Z( F0 h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are- S+ a8 ]' x$ ^5 c" T" e
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% H' J4 p9 Z: x+ R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these' G1 o$ {) {  r2 d- V
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 ?, x- I6 X4 p( f+ [ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" k. U- o# S2 E+ W4 F- Y2 E
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 p: @* I3 s5 {3 |5 @6 I Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) A) L# p3 d0 \0 x0 \6 u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, G. z7 h' C/ B7 z9 e/ G  `. breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: ^' q( o7 \, @3 S# h9 B$ J The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* ]2 U/ I. P5 R
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 |0 W8 _/ u5 I; z: _
impose liquidation values.
2 Y9 U3 V3 a- D: |  t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% o8 y# v! v7 y- ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' E0 }  d9 q1 o+ T. C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ V2 z0 s1 T- ?$ F5 H  Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
. l, H7 W. _. Q0 S$ ~" Y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% f, ]% K3 U3 ]
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 P( i# @. f1 Q$ Z0 l3 U- k7 N
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 Q' w% u* c8 }# R& E  t" w' U& Y5 [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ m1 R  ~/ z2 H7 V- X
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, `. P4 U% c& u, K0 W, D/ J' U6 A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' f+ F$ K4 U6 P/ w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 g2 B6 O+ H0 B6 [7 ^. x. t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. M( ~7 w0 s+ o8 i& m! U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% W! [( ]3 M  V( Z
finding financing.3 Y( ?- b/ L% t1 |( n
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 ?( J, M( W2 T+ B1 b1 n: X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., Z. I& u  W0 T7 ?  n) P6 V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 V; Y* M0 {8 H# P( G5 tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 [6 Y# Q0 }% a- [
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! x2 X- X1 _; n5 v. @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ l1 w0 m4 Y" `0 f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! i9 v  X0 v4 K" t" J: Y3 {today.
+ K" Y5 F# ^/ H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 |) u; C2 v( x4 c' Memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, |6 T& `8 `5 _( J5 V- k9 r! U6 R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' H/ L6 X4 g: S0 ?
the Greek default.: X' I9 a( o' n1 E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 t5 E; @5 Q9 k+ ]- ]
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' F0 o" m6 g+ U. y" M2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, {) X8 f5 Y- o/ U( C& ^% e* [
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: f/ ^, `% u1 U2 D9 O; h" W! w3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing" l% O# \( j) L3 u  t# m1 U
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ O5 G0 h7 c4 D) F! w* o8 @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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% d5 ^, C0 r. _7 S* A, S8 \Beyond Greece
  Z. Q% Y1 }6 \ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% R. k- y) ^) nbut that was before Italy.
+ L4 z& I$ y- Z2 J! L, H9 B It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) o, F) E; r3 t* Z( {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) n) q' l# ^4 m! I) m% `) vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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" k0 T6 G8 h/ N6 \Conclusion7 p* T' S' z2 j' z; v0 j8 C
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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