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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. g/ Z, z- L! B) M* c! n

& l% d1 |& P. x. U4 NMarket Commentary9 W; U( G9 j5 r7 H4 I0 C4 E$ r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 u8 z% @! M% u0 ~. zJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
; L" l* Y$ z3 X, e1 M% Y# ^- `2 rSignature Global Advisors) x2 U; b, j2 w! K: a. S/ [

& g8 p% n6 P& T  f
" `1 t$ n' S( b* D1 ~$ iBackground remarks
6 ], _: ?% e+ O' I+ K2 |0 H3 K Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. D4 C6 {% g6 r+ Ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 r! a+ K3 d1 x/ D Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' T2 q4 S: }7 ?0 g9 |9 @
adjustments./ Q* C( C. \- s+ W
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; |  W* s  T& x7 B" I9 |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- m  u. ^4 V) T' }) r5 U; b* n6 t  i
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are; r9 C5 a. d7 h! o/ d# F$ ]
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 q* t5 C* ~( B# V! E5 w We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  a) \" P9 C& [; c; iadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ P( Z5 B) O/ b" Z- u. ?
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ d9 A' H& E( W' X& O) n/ dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- I$ v: S, ]- [8 {9 r; m+ H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# d, p. W/ Q' L* b Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& O$ N" A3 S2 e, Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* }2 E9 g! q  |9 M' Q% Q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' v7 L, E1 _% X
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) O* W, F8 S$ p0 {% simpose liquidation values.
7 w4 c$ ?# }0 L: T# r. ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; L/ {2 I/ Y% @1 @$ q% v+ M
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 W4 h, _. m- V8 V+ S  y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- d9 f/ @& ]8 M) p
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
( m. ^8 h0 [: ^# j- T) q- R' [* q. {5 y/ ^0 W
A look at credit markets5 u- l- u4 |- P9 q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- c0 q0 r8 }; R! w$ |2 `9 D9 a
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% K2 s1 l! w. f; B/ p2 r. }
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 l: Z0 c/ `! x+ z/ L7 T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% V7 p5 _2 Q1 B7 E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, @; X6 ?3 m! a1 W+ L
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, v% i* w3 c  Q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. W' G) z* T3 Z4 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% A9 m6 o. |9 M; t; C: D% W% x& W
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 ~5 c" k3 u+ A" D& i6 |finding financing.
+ d; N0 ^! P  O7 V# h( E9 a3 c' H- @ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! }. }* F+ ~+ a9 n; k3 uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 u6 d  k$ I! V- `) ~1 a: m Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 q- B: m, M4 ]5 S7 X
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ S+ B; [9 Y6 ?going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( V% r; B/ N; lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ D1 D/ K  U* `& K) W) j8 I5 x European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 ~+ G5 p* v5 p$ F& }* \* e2 l7 Q, _- Btoday.. g- I* C% Q4 ]% t
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& T7 g9 Z8 |  e6 m; z
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) H' y" a2 ?$ d* H2 q# g3 X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 V$ q7 a+ e- y4 P
the Greek default.
% I; k- T. R) `/ I) u% E As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 p1 R4 I8 Y- G( J, K
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) N, m' h" [, Z8 J7 E! O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
0 J+ |# Y) L+ ]% W$ W4 Vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals." h- |* m4 c+ P) s- J4 ?
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% f1 W. E. _* ?* M3 D
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 e- t5 D8 T4 W/ `7 l9 l4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.9 K4 x# \5 D4 W9 f8 Y, c

0 v/ @2 y5 ?6 iBeyond Greece
- A0 @  Y# H# A2 J The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. t9 L# f/ U2 @, Fbut that was before Italy.
8 j' w+ ?  q  ?& u It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; e% C+ d  K+ |7 ~8 Z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 ~$ Z1 @# {/ F6 t( s# |6 A0 WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
' `2 [6 O0 K. K, M- O- k( u$ n0 l( u0 T8 I
Conclusion5 E& e0 z% }% U! C% c6 ~
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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