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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. W7 ~  f  X! V  O* K
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Market Commentary
8 }2 l7 w* O# q) bEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ o+ v$ M8 u( G8 \/ nJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 B! q0 C* n( N2 n" f; Y) uSignature Global Advisors
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, t7 [: z2 G; CBackground remarks9 P( E: k) H2 U, @' E
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* v0 b5 X% b8 ^5 vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 b2 g& A0 V8 P3 F. V. b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 w/ ~, ~% o, Z/ t! Q7 C) K: Fadjustments.- D9 j# M) ^4 |6 R& J/ O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* q4 q4 C( d  [# N, r" ]9 V+ t9 L+ Tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 s/ s5 @5 G& G, c6 }( }8 X* M Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 ~4 e6 x* L$ @# y1 W( X  F, H# Rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ q4 A% n3 w* v' B2 q; b
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 S6 T) W' [0 ]7 T2 uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ |7 z# w: k0 L" }/ [" z5 c/ S) D
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 Y3 `6 M/ W* ^. ^$ |- m! Y8 r1 |
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 W. ^3 X7 u* l  ^% N* O* R1 d1 N
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& H, b- L8 H! q+ s# D Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' j! o0 I. Z% ~& D5 {% _2 b/ Ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. Q2 W5 @4 K7 W1 O; Z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, ^9 i: H; B- w5 ?- mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ {/ ~: |/ i4 F, ~" O# ?) X, }; W# f
impose liquidation values.- a9 Q/ L$ X5 O! r
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% n7 x& S, x8 E' @+ R9 ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( U1 i9 n% Q* W9 ^2 C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* i3 i1 a. N3 C3 E) m& D3 n
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets- u4 W5 t$ ^6 u5 p. J
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 O9 T) D1 U# R- r- T3 DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. P" [% i4 @4 W4 t) D* e5 w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ {0 d3 p1 ^; h) s/ C: c7 G
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 a, i3 I+ h7 P- F" }billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# E# b$ e+ v2 e  saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. r- T6 Q+ ]( z* L% R8 r2 G1 p( OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* c3 W( m& s* Z7 K; w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- J8 {, ~% ~$ v, T0 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. i5 ]* [$ s3 ^+ M' t
finding financing.
4 y6 p" f, J2 ^- X# Y% n Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. S; Q1 |1 V- g0 `& \' {5 G
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 K" j" T8 Y+ q8 j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# ]) s+ ?" N6 z! c* yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 `3 H, t7 y8 W1 y/ A4 n, H- d% {/ s
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 A, U1 a6 u$ \* C1 c6 q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! x0 L; w; p: } European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 B' u1 @$ J* atoday.
) F  |: a3 O; v& _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* F0 L. y" ?! |, [, Yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 }4 G9 }) r5 X+ z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ o2 r3 @& y  J/ \* g/ Tthe Greek default.
2 O/ d7 G! z6 Q; I As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- {5 {0 ?9 }6 {3 x1 q( u; K2 U1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
1 u& g# \2 c+ {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 w0 C/ O* F. b- U. w& N! `
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.7 l% o# k: t& z) c, i6 A& O( [9 Q# o0 t
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( H1 r) z2 s/ @4 `! M4 j4 m! abanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" ^! h2 g6 m4 m( Z0 D7 ^" E* f; X4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 J1 ^5 W7 G2 m2 A% \5 n' K& M' c

+ H, T$ O0 B5 T7 i; a* ~Beyond Greece
; f" \1 x/ E1 I( w The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," l1 e4 G4 d8 t1 M0 \" J
but that was before Italy.
, h: j# f5 C0 ` It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS., K4 b0 C: M4 T% S+ J: R
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% H, I: V, z( h4 \! X! O3 i! d( vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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& i1 ]4 }' j3 O3 @7 CConclusion
# P; Q6 d7 {. Y& a* T We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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