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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
' O9 o0 _* j7 P; n% ]" a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 j3 J' ^7 k E9 Y. N: P" M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 ? U: w8 o# ~
impose liquidation values.( J8 [! j* E7 E& x& V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" ~, {. n" R$ q: ^/ s/ Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 G8 g: y @6 n" B0 t* u' L+ W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 p% M0 ]/ n U6 gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." l ~8 c' e6 u* c( X
|% t! F, c, | j [2 c
A look at credit markets A% L/ @9 u* D; {6 q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, _% g# a6 r2 \. x5 B6 y1 k4 QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 t: Z- o4 _4 f& v$ F" m; t5 t; X g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 J* F( b3 F& N" b' P0 E9 l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( x3 J* x' V* m, H6 c" |billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 ^. Z( U. c+ ?+ F! j+ m' F' Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 E8 i1 Q. ~! J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( {9 y# B4 o' K( S6 rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 B: w, h9 a9 O Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! u& Z1 E& i$ s5 c) Y, [0 qfinding financing.
( y0 R' I. Z! ^/ l! e. W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( M! z4 V: r! p A) [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 U2 E8 V& U) r, o" ? m: F3 j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! g1 V9 _8 m0 q1 b6 ?/ j* M4 x7 N0 his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 x7 S0 @. y5 O5 n, ?2 q$ s* Q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- K6 S+ a2 X. U& q, u
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( G5 h! q$ t* I8 W% G+ W6 s" c
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain# ^( J {6 o8 y: i: p! R
today.
* v& G9 \; ?7 d. [9 f9 \( u C8 k Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. [8 K+ x9 ?8 m+ i9 e* y0 Demerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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