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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ x# A- t" D' J; w9 J7 l- r5 z/ n. Q
% O2 X, e. E  ~" o* i
Market Commentary0 q3 ~( r, Q, o' T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* {9 u  D3 {6 j' ]4 L
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 T' d- h7 U0 f' h$ _Signature Global Advisors
8 C8 \2 L  }0 i* c+ Q$ ^( W8 w* \
( l) i  J) p; U; X7 m  `3 M5 y. A7 f. i, n0 x) }; B, A- S
Background remarks
. x7 B8 q' o$ j$ k1 y" Q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 ~( k& {' E2 T- |1 C7 Gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& s5 R2 M+ M4 u+ L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 M1 r7 R. R$ v- @; e4 Y2 Sadjustments.
+ z3 Y- Y9 Q% f" o1 N2 @ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 h1 U3 U( A- }7 Z/ E; N- D4 Q1 ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  h$ h2 Q& _' X+ F Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 J! A* J9 X! h: s4 |! P/ _
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 [  k; @5 r7 ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' r) W8 b* s  |+ `5 q" L6 Ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 X! C. v- Z: F" D- {% @9 L  {
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, t9 i- k* b) l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 S- v; C- w7 S* u2 L* r. p
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& e/ o9 u0 f6 j$ E7 K( C Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 r% ~5 _. t# ?7 Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ s4 S& A% u9 ^6 M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 f0 n  v5 j! U) m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 v, d0 [& e# A; Himpose liquidation values.
7 d# k. N) }: k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 }" O7 K" Z& i4 y: OAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( S" x* H/ k8 `6 E- \( Y& M8 P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: D- N0 ~5 E- R  G6 \) p; @; Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) ~0 w0 G# r5 g) T

+ }* H) U3 L) {' \, i! f3 SA look at credit markets
7 W( y" b; ]1 z  G$ F6 q: N4 P) W Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ ^3 Y7 C4 f6 m) V1 Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' f% j, q/ C! a# M# P High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ |) k8 g! T: w
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! J: f7 g; W7 e. [2 `: H1 ~5 S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& P' l/ v  t+ Q: @
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. b6 C  r* ?/ U" m; c" rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 n5 l7 c# }+ N8 n& P, v, ^" }) ]8 E7 p
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, R. Z5 Q2 b/ Y- c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. A" r: u+ _* B7 }$ a+ nfinding financing., T# k0 }& n* `+ p
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they" m& S4 w6 ?( x. m% s
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ I1 D6 b" D$ G3 L/ d- _; y& E; Z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 ^- I% v$ b( P  A- dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 I2 q+ N, a" x& _5 m8 n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 w9 N8 L$ X: G8 }* r1 T2 A
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ m; z% Q) X( W' _' f. F European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  t" s0 C# ^3 o( M' c% u
today./ m9 S: P' d. q6 L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. S/ T* A0 e9 G( y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 D( u7 {9 k# u1 f- I8 h Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, ?3 f  M1 h5 r$ k
the Greek default.  c  u, q& Y5 i! s: j) l# Z& r& v
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 n% S. Y7 h7 i( p5 q8 Z& J
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% S* N* Y/ {2 r$ I6 F. a
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign$ t- S7 k- A% ^9 R" I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 P5 j3 ^# o3 T2 j+ s4 p
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 H4 U) c0 W# }7 c: I' P! l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. G8 g' c: L; D! H" S1 {( ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 c" ^* @$ t4 J1 S. X
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Beyond Greece
$ ]1 ?0 `' A# y0 }. x+ ]% O The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  p# E( D: V  u3 x
but that was before Italy.( y: Q( `9 |# g8 B
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 K& H5 \  E  q! j
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  p% n: P+ a+ @
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.' a1 T% h2 R8 }$ c. ?3 `$ A$ l

* t8 ]; x9 H4 Z7 V' o- hConclusion
2 w  Z5 C$ M7 N1 s We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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