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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& K8 ]0 V/ m8 @0 A0 _0 _+ H
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Market Commentary
4 W" n7 Z3 Z2 D4 L8 K$ J& XEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' v, J9 N  m5 U' U0 o
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
* k+ m7 _2 x" p/ s3 r- t, i+ k2 A3 }6 zSignature Global Advisors: K# m1 _! @/ `1 L/ d, R9 T' U1 O' X

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. ~9 T  j$ Q- V6 ^& K/ YBackground remarks
$ @1 A$ x% _% [1 z  P Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ m+ c. o/ `/ N' Cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.' Y( x/ A/ p; [0 p1 \3 B
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; p- O2 F; x  d0 i7 Aadjustments.
# w+ `# |6 d5 H, P0 E: o This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, Z; ?9 S/ k5 U) c3 jsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 _$ J3 x" P; j! O8 D$ v Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# Z; D3 A3 R9 ]: C3 X  _* hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" k/ S3 P7 F/ z+ @1 o4 P: P# P/ P- d1 } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ U: n6 }* P' B7 H& _2 _  Cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 U1 |- m) F" _/ Y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 W: T8 S) J* l: s4 L2 H5 u7 Pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& e! @0 l5 h& [5 ^" F% Z& E
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 j0 B' p) R) m. F; d4 J; c/ P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  k9 o) x! X' o8 L  c/ q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
# x0 d. V* `' D9 P2 I% ]# A0 ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ U! `8 m  g1 i  V: e" Uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 F7 M6 Z) `+ H& n! e/ gimpose liquidation values.
; H6 n4 v5 @$ b" ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* Y: J7 g/ I. B; T, NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' T2 Q" @' S3 F5 y: l6 B* A2 }% H# J
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 _. X3 ^3 M4 N: k
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 V% i& Z& a9 t- X

( r9 O% U8 y8 GA look at credit markets7 A9 e% z9 Y8 M# I% r; k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& ]/ h2 i) x7 ~9 w  ASeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 [+ L+ ]: y: Y0 h  Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- m0 ]* I, W9 R0 \2 Q! o( _
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( t# f% e' n2 p- F8 x# j! U
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# A& P/ }2 K7 j0 P* s( f+ c3 Y, saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% o$ M# [1 d$ O2 JCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 K6 r. @! d' F# b
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ H+ o# \" _- m! J$ P: J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble  {% H5 D. g: N7 V
finding financing.
: h7 R4 X: `$ J* n3 V Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. j. h; R- D5 x$ n4 K9 m- i$ H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& \, g9 t- U, W' ?: C, o6 z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 @3 W, v/ H- ?* ^  K6 Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ A: K  t8 f3 `, K4 D+ U4 Y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" o  v4 o  ]' h9 y& ibankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ Q$ y  H# {0 r7 {
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, D9 i. j5 V% k/ w% b  @today.
' U( L+ ?- D; s, o Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" d5 ]" B+ Y$ i, A- O8 i0 W) uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 w3 o) |# o* K; N5 ^% l9 g  ^ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ y* g$ I: n) {5 pthe Greek default.- W: e- ^! g, s  J8 g' a7 e( \
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& U9 T. p9 E5 \( f" w/ }$ z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* B2 X. j) H; z# L2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 d. L9 G6 G; ^. j# u8 L0 R1 x
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 q$ w. z0 l: ^: M7 j7 q8 k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! }1 P* R" O! O+ K" k! S. f/ O* xbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ `; I3 e. _: |- j8 W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( [) k2 U/ |7 b( J
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Beyond Greece7 s& b, I' n4 Y5 I4 j
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  K" Q) a1 u9 |$ N& I' Y3 P2 tbut that was before Italy.
2 e* r, a; t5 N It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) K: p* `4 d3 t+ q# } It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' G$ v/ p! d! l' d0 h8 WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 {2 [, N9 _* C- x  n7 u. S
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Conclusion
9 ~( g% R+ o: I7 H We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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