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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; M: d2 p6 P% a* g3 P& V9 n$ P' M
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Market Commentary
/ h/ K& C5 S$ s0 T8 R- g2 NEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* u6 B4 c* A$ c, O% Y" d( K% p- t
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  z; _$ i2 e1 N: C- kSignature Global Advisors5 @) v; D! S. T/ O2 o6 X
2 M5 t/ B, f( j  @2 e- y" v7 C

: m; `# U5 I6 B5 B% X, NBackground remarks: I, C4 y: A  b6 b4 B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- X1 h+ D, _  h+ M6 w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., \( o7 A6 l0 ^3 Z, n) ?/ V7 v
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( b  ]. o* ]3 l6 i* K
adjustments.
3 q8 R+ M5 A5 H4 {& P! B This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" M% ]2 e2 L1 q4 `9 |( isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." C/ D/ W1 j' v% P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: t6 n+ m/ f( N! S! i$ h- hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' _8 ^! {" ^3 X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: Q8 R, ^1 r2 I  o
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ T- K% ]0 R# @/ P( N! F, H
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% r2 d3 O4 k/ ]9 F) e9 N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- O5 Y7 F( y" m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# b, j  N4 ^( i% u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# q4 V) T  N4 W7 Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 L- y2 m+ v9 i8 s1 G The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ v+ m' _9 \$ e6 _1 Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, t. |/ I; _" G0 o2 Q% Rimpose liquidation values.
6 R5 Q! N  D$ X1 Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 P9 ^6 G" \. |  Z  D4 FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 P. I. H- O7 Z: ^' b2 P5 }# z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 p" Z! j" p5 ^( {' s0 L
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' _: F/ `0 E. [1 I( k9 [/ w

- U, c2 O2 Z. b/ _" Z. X( zA look at credit markets
% W- ~2 O! t  Z- K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) }% M) t8 c% ~! ~) z7 `4 H) M9 DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 l: M2 r5 X/ o; u High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 j: A2 |$ Q. o, ~* M: s) M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ |4 E: Y1 e& X+ W& _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 Q0 o" n% i! K9 f# O
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- n3 i5 g; E, M; `
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, F. V/ o' j0 s
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! p3 Y* L$ Q) z. ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 A3 b5 ?( f' u" ~; R9 I+ i
finding financing.
: i5 l/ {+ O) m* U Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ [2 O9 k- b, {: Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 q0 ?) Q5 _8 ]* d( _
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 t: {$ V) L( I+ W: J3 a7 s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' f5 A# }6 W$ S& W; v
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( L7 C5 d, K  ~' r8 G3 {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 X+ n2 q, }/ |4 P5 \) y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: i  {9 L+ w4 Ptoday.4 Z4 T7 x) h% g* _
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 s$ A. v) k9 n" d0 p8 Q% M, u; D/ a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* ?" Z( o* K* D( R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( z0 w, R/ g* i  [; V4 nthe Greek default.
8 g8 p2 {$ F$ S As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; {; f6 O: v( j3 r% [- f
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# _/ x* A; n+ O5 m& v2 P- S2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 S& u( ~0 K  ]/ q) A
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 l  d( Z- P, y3 g# I3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" y  }. ~! W: T$ j" O' sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 B- Z* x; a8 n' e7 w
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.$ T) i2 k2 n: r. L3 }6 R$ H
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Beyond Greece- a  n# T4 }' {# m! I; }
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% h! j) j+ L6 Y5 Y( T$ z( S
but that was before Italy.1 c# u$ I, j: K2 X
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, j0 s$ N7 P! J3 X6 y* [ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' V# r# J' i5 J2 _  F" wItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 D* L; X& t7 g0 q5 ?9 m" Z
( d; d) T: v5 \
Conclusion
1 S( n0 V0 o# f! ]$ d& K2 C We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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