 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation$ x# G2 E- l( Q5 \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 y+ ]$ N9 r; Was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" \- n; |* s8 C
impose liquidation values.
$ a) H- [( i% ?; C7 _2 Y' C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ C) \! `, n1 j0 xAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& k) N3 s9 x% Y; _3 p
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. Q5 }7 l; [4 v) G. jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
/ s5 x0 }; `. S- S9 S% ?" j
% D, i4 d; Y' _4 Z) M" n7 u* ZA look at credit markets1 h9 [" ^7 Q4 @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 Y2 Z. N9 Y1 N% i8 |3 l! H' e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 o% O& C" c; z" o1 O0 g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' k! Q8 a" X' X! p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 {6 o& [: Y7 p5 Q) o; x) ~5 lbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 |4 t6 t$ G" a% paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 O& \, X4 O6 _; G4 r6 G: g; @6 q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* c; l9 K2 l' N6 o! _
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 [6 U. P4 H2 P9 a6 P. k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% [4 Z$ ^) A0 k4 Pfinding financing.
, C) ]1 y9 B9 u! F5 b0 }8 R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" z' \; ]5 [* q; Q/ kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" c! z5 Y5 s5 z/ }# K9 A! p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! i: }, V, Y2 p0 |8 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 H8 y& u" |7 tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 r$ v: ]8 x% Q6 f/ f, b2 [/ Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.9 G' Q2 R" r+ t& a+ h; d
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ ^/ C0 ~6 I" V2 l8 B8 W I' d
today.+ c, f( I' _+ O- U, X
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& |$ I5 Z; r( J. o' |8 p" O4 I
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|