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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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$ `; T; ~; u3 N- k, {7 d! EMarket Commentary
4 c2 o! Q6 g" ^" M- y) \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- M" _" O) _% @2 lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' k  }, H9 x0 ]3 m& Y3 k" G: x; ~+ ]
Signature Global Advisors# R( k5 Y7 z1 g2 o
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( x, b( A1 v+ t( n, _: O, P
Background remarks9 o2 Q/ s9 Q9 z' w2 O
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are* Y8 L- J" {; W* X- I9 `
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  R8 |) \: U' s& D+ T/ D Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" |5 F5 r9 S2 c. I% y, \; V4 E
adjustments.8 }  P1 p+ p8 l+ z9 `: O0 v
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* T# g# j- @8 k/ ?( M+ hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ |4 s1 R; O% M: M9 r: c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 s) a) m! m3 U3 g/ Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 f( m( l2 s: s. _: p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# [( j8 Y# X! w
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.4 v6 ^9 d6 e; C6 z) [* |! M' y* l
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 U7 a5 R, ^! m6 ?; m: f
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* e$ [7 D4 N8 }% e9 f8 U: P
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 {. K: L2 c* i5 W
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' d7 S' O2 X$ k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# m3 l; ~* J) G: Z" w, R; Z1 H$ x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) o. Y- \; {4 l/ @9 Y+ F, D& `0 E- S
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! p* t9 n% L" s
impose liquidation values./ q4 T; q8 l. j+ S  q0 z4 W
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 J  E3 I# v9 T
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( p" q2 P) F! P) }$ f
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 D) U+ G# ?  n1 A  S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: w3 o9 V; M$ N/ Y; M* A

; g4 R5 ?4 b8 ^4 m+ iA look at credit markets
! e+ k' q5 {2 M; e" j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ z: A7 |! Y- D
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; m0 |: w2 }- s- q  Y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 r6 _; C! S- Y/ @3 Qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( {7 v1 ^4 _0 d5 t
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ a  G* [% o# @: I. z, qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, Q; y9 J) e( D( QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' J8 A9 q* s# L0 apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 v; J: U; f/ A" S1 o3 J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- s( S9 T# `$ S) m
finding financing.
' D8 I0 j5 I9 c. \7 o7 N$ ?: g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 W; i4 W7 T) f
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 o( c6 P3 j9 K' _ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# d  T8 o6 i3 g
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ m3 j& U2 ~) o; `+ Xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. M  i3 H1 ~4 P2 obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# D# b) H* ^5 ]; `. Y0 Z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( w$ i& v1 B4 ^& b  U0 O! H+ t/ L
today.5 K% @5 [% a9 W; k6 h3 o
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. w* }0 y  v1 w- a$ D% p1 temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- t' o5 p0 S& G: [2 h
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% Y9 J; y, V5 b( F  e( Y
the Greek default.  |' M# g  p! Y2 i8 t
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% o  O+ L$ B9 e) b* c! R1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; Q1 ]4 [! b) r# D) y& a9 Z
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. }4 L  S  P: |' Y) Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- w9 x* o5 B- A& |# J8 a3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) P! k- [5 y! i4 @2 Q' C8 ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ D& i; Q: N/ P1 i9 X. Z0 q; u
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  s: o) _8 ^" D3 @8 l7 f
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Beyond Greece1 @+ v1 X! V0 o- k: J* t
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 |( e6 I4 Q. P
but that was before Italy.1 z. K. q+ ]. T4 ^9 c* @
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 N, C. r% ~* C6 t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the' [+ J; M5 [- T  g( g' v
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( {; r- K, w) S* t1 s
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Conclusion
9 F) N; \3 E2 n' Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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