埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2579|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 h. B/ X9 h  o& @  r& B! s3 w9 O
; M. w/ D$ M; C8 m
Market Commentary
$ a( f( m2 s$ @" u) @Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
2 j9 m+ [2 ^% xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 @* }; n4 a; D
Signature Global Advisors6 {' K$ ]  w7 g+ i
8 J* I' N$ d5 d$ \/ ]& x; D

! e7 p) k! T; V2 f; FBackground remarks
5 @! a8 s" ~6 A Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 y: U% O" _% pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) g' O. a) f$ I  e Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 @2 V6 Q  h9 R" ^3 o; _
adjustments./ t: g! n* i) y" m/ m( y2 a. B
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# }1 l- N+ K& P% z: Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 C$ O4 o9 C; e$ N) `0 z7 b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are" E) n: q% m% P1 {8 L
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ v* U! ?/ A- M) s0 Y$ h
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 b9 ~, ^6 f4 V  s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 s, a+ x0 M. E9 a; n, c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 y- |2 d# w- X8 q, xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 f6 n+ f+ `. \- A! D Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( R" ^1 ]3 X+ }5 ?$ G
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ D$ F) O% `8 Z5 T1 [+ Ureduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; o8 ^  @$ V( _. }% X# W! a' Z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, K! M- E+ f6 ?' b
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 \: g" Z' ~. [9 z5 I/ D
impose liquidation values.: k0 R0 w& j# j( ?/ g! T' N
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' l9 ~! e7 l+ J
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( W1 W' N1 }0 o# @2 }! o( b The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 X+ g2 L& a7 |& p; Vscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' p' N- U! v  J2 k. q* d( ~, l  o, I1 q
A look at credit markets
. z2 [  k! F, o& L& t9 {, m0 P Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, l  P2 e& E. o: v( w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; p! D' `' _8 s+ |: I9 u! C7 J
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: B+ s+ O% K3 K) Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' ^' `" H+ A) u% q1 W5 ?9 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 h, v; `) _2 L  n
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! R% ~4 Z6 E2 I5 Z  XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# k) M! q7 P- ]' B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& ^& N$ K7 G3 R' Z6 W Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( n; }0 G& C3 Y& d' i
finding financing.0 N. J0 _* |" \" a4 E& q4 j+ {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ r, v4 X7 d% l  Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 o$ c) f# {. h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# @2 H6 m# E  m* jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 k0 M2 h3 s& C4 O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- F1 b4 a. t- l/ b3 E6 P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* C8 W% x* T' q% [0 @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 C4 G1 `+ p' R* D+ _# V, ?8 Dtoday.
1 i, w7 R- v* z% V Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 J+ P( c6 \6 m4 @; W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) t/ j8 w; ]: V4 h4 o Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- ?9 n! B, |) x# C- f7 Z
the Greek default.0 q" u; n$ C/ f0 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* m* J8 u+ M1 p& ~1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) u: z' i4 f) u7 D3 W9 Z* ~/ R2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 b$ n# g% t5 ~4 _" m
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
" |2 q+ g, B1 h3 U! L! [" i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% j/ r/ l! T1 R  Z% K- Lbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* J5 e1 ~9 ?: S) {4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.3 l) J7 I# t! C4 p" F$ }- W

: x8 _9 S0 h+ y! r/ SBeyond Greece' h. x4 j/ S; L% [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ U2 N  p0 W8 I% ]# o: p
but that was before Italy.8 y% D, f( Z' i7 B
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( j+ b* a2 j+ e$ u7 E8 L It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& S0 t# m% W4 M. _! q( R$ }6 E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
& t5 B; k  s( X/ s4 Z5 J
' G& k6 _6 I7 LConclusion$ E( O+ c5 A% k
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-15 20:06 , Processed in 0.113493 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表