埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2653|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# T- A# V/ ~1 f6 N' l1 M% s4 }
0 n3 g! E/ {- s8 c" B
Market Commentary
1 F7 m8 ], o! v1 I  u& z( OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 R4 T" G9 ]4 a1 G4 ^- B9 g: `James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 V1 J' \: `+ M% K3 @Signature Global Advisors& ^8 N  [2 l2 D8 @& O9 P
1 D" |% P+ N& b  {: K+ f$ I

: i# f2 X) H# Z/ v, \! c  p- T, X6 I9 vBackground remarks) E7 f) V  d; U! C  P) E
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, y9 l0 ~7 `1 I1 B; O7 s
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) o4 k7 I# p: ?% J$ n+ M8 I0 b5 t Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
1 u3 q  P. L8 A+ k! Y- ?7 sadjustments.
/ f6 `  E0 f* M8 y4 @% d8 a This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" H  I' i; b3 ]" {1 Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  H+ F# s4 U& m5 ~4 z1 a2 n/ F! A Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 g0 t% d# T, a  h4 P2 s
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
5 r* a: n4 K) j3 G3 P" ^. G We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these' P( t" P& U1 {# W# C, R, F6 S
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 p  z4 {( j& d
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% S* h/ Z" N0 w8 A. _) e
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 j5 n6 ~$ Z- y+ u Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. o, s2 n% b2 Q" ^8 i& R) Z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& [7 K7 q2 `* preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ f$ z0 O. A; X5 ~3 [ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. f2 E9 P- \) u9 Y  n: Mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  F6 L0 o' ~& H( B% p2 }3 aimpose liquidation values.3 a$ ~" V  o( U- P$ e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 |- j7 }7 D9 TAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 x9 a+ Z$ F" j1 q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; k% w  H' Y; V: l- d" Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
, j# y$ w& x! O. _
1 }# f2 b9 }2 V/ ^1 }+ e4 NA look at credit markets/ A6 Z# Q) x' d) b
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; u7 {2 K. \) l" |- R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* o& |0 M- |* b( ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 J. t/ W% o: @  q) H& \! X
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' K9 q/ f" _: e6 B6 \5 d
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" ^, T' Z( ^) ^  f8 L7 X' J8 raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ b/ ~9 R( K2 Q# c4 YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 K# {! x0 |: A  Q6 ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 U+ C  Q0 w7 d) ] Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 P, A, Q# P& n; A* ?6 I0 s
finding financing.0 A, j" i; t5 H% M0 T" S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  }9 Y# _5 T+ O, G3 G/ Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: B4 E) C5 Y) R7 X( _
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) P/ `' v8 l( `( s3 g2 }
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. I6 D6 E- g# |going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! s) d% Y6 J6 P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! B5 }, U4 `, c; A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 U7 J. n/ Z+ i' G! vtoday.& w" w% \* _2 c. Z% O1 p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; `4 W6 Q0 F7 n6 s' E9 F- W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 M, [0 l" @7 T5 c2 V
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 r/ f& x- B: f& _$ m
the Greek default.7 \& X  b+ X. ]3 I. u
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 z: }9 C! u3 s. c# k* @1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& [( y4 W' V" R- o7 s6 g
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) o9 Z3 P# K( J* G
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 ^" j4 `) x( y' x7 Q  l+ M3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% X1 v) a2 R5 Cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' L8 J1 U+ A6 t3 f4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
0 p$ x  T* b# y( r5 K6 e
& x1 h/ R0 {  f* c! [: rBeyond Greece" o/ k2 Y( }9 U  v8 s
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),, L$ B6 R: P& x  S  a) k, h" M
but that was before Italy.
1 B) h% w$ B% n9 |4 i$ D It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; U" i5 _8 a/ z" t: _! i7 w* ^ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& m: Z, b2 ]$ E' OItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
3 B1 N0 r& ?0 \, n# c2 W) N0 S; k' G& P3 M/ U& W; C3 j
Conclusion: y' K2 Y, L& ^! ~$ n6 F" m" m. \
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-27 03:17 , Processed in 0.144054 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表