市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

6 k; y1 y# e% HMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 \' g, j, m1 X" V9 Q! yJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors


6 ^! b$ q$ {3 X+ s5 i, s' I$ \Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
% V/ o7 p) ~5 x# U' Nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ D. o+ A9 z9 |  W Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ R/ s: h4 {7 s3 Y- D Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& z) I7 V4 I) W6 o' h3 Xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: M7 P% [" [- F, a  x2 C9 D+ H& ?7 y2 s Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
+ S$ z6 B; R! N& O% t The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% E6 j+ @* m$ J- r' Q, g1 n* Oimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 V2 O' ]! m* h# m" f4 i' [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; [6 o8 v6 E: l
A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 r( w: k- j4 {" V# USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' N! c' ^/ \7 e, M4 e  @  M9 b6 X; E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 H  p! j, K, P4 t6 R  mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 y- Y* Z, f% k/ ?! _- u2 ~2 g4 mCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) a9 S: {  G4 k+ K$ bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) K- Z" ]# I3 `$ kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* X' b0 \4 i( J! V/ ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! a: ?, z4 ?: y/ C- k! r+ K9 ibankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! S8 \" A! [4 {& P- y European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
$ N# G0 D2 q' x6 j' }- a$ } Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
! {# ~9 ]! O0 a5 x4 ^2 E9 x" A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 Q2 k& p. X& D1 r2 Hthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 d' I! {; x* D9 l" x# B6 n9 {/ R" Cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# @5 ?1 Y" `2 c, c+ e8 S0 I& i4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
* ?7 o* M& \+ K9 `5 C+ [. d3 q/ m, ]  Z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' X3 W, _0 {1 i" P$ D& t9 DItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
6 N& o* Y/ R8 y8 b6 t
; p( l. Z% y+ d: s) ]+ C1 W: RConclusion
3 Z7 V! V  {) k! L- o  t0 B; u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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