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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 v0 U% I/ d, h- y' q# P$ [Market Commentary
; g* t* w8 E  v  D! _( [9 VEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( ^7 l) ^! v8 @7 s$ jJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: V- Q2 T& y5 Y
Signature Global Advisors
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5 r1 l' d+ w3 z& u! N, o$ o4 WBackground remarks
, U1 n" Q8 `& @3 y; i, s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! [- @, [" G; ^( t
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.1 t6 |3 e5 y- ]4 l$ @9 O6 a
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ R+ o$ m( ?; i: t( a
adjustments." R; T: b# x* S7 y6 K+ T- U9 b
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* c; N8 P  s& D9 C& |' X3 Nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ m7 u. y* ~8 h7 N. c, w7 L
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) {/ `- u6 u2 W4 Q. P- _* R/ j* K
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! u* M" W& ?2 L2 l8 _' [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 o0 ^) \, s- I! ]4 e( ]9 w0 T) b4 hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ ~  }6 z' g8 y& A. H6 B Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- p' \: o- S4 Z& O7 }* Qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: K# a9 t2 ^8 q" |. E0 P Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. I8 r+ b1 |6 {( [% G$ x. |! x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' O1 s7 P; i; K$ {5 e5 P6 x3 x
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ t% i5 y( Y+ I4 \) G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  |4 H$ |" h9 z9 g- n* l( A$ D* Qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) H) W3 l, ~1 Simpose liquidation values.
. S! u+ [9 U$ ]/ k" b$ } In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; ~" ^' O" Y. k# L5 B. w& C3 i
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 F( C$ ]- h/ D8 b- Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 h" ]2 G7 p8 j9 f, Tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets2 `6 ~0 S' {0 F: C( a. E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) R" S4 t9 E2 b$ \) N6 i; X! ZSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 c# s) f4 A8 u0 m
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' Z4 m) @8 s# B. p  K/ m- n! O1 p. h3 g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 Q! s1 G2 k7 S9 T
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! a) x2 _7 i' T. g4 ~7 N4 {. ]
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 j" _2 q. G+ H/ Y* lCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 D+ R( G; n1 k* H
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 L2 @6 G# w- b& F  {# z& f) J: @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 A: ?" v7 d* ]: H$ R4 o2 v! Q/ K
finding financing.
1 c: l9 s6 D! l6 N Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) l. M: a2 p* D; J. ]
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 [' y6 L  H- g* }
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 g6 Z  y! k( S1 i% ]& cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; R! N# j0 Y1 c) s1 r9 Z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! w1 z" }! n  {; |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# d' ]. j- t" h* K: o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ B# I! _) @5 H' stoday.
2 [0 I- H6 a9 u9 T( G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 W2 q4 s% [7 U' H% y7 Q+ `2 G- bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ s7 ^* A. t  }1 I' t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 O4 H( Y3 p2 y8 X2 P; }the Greek default.
1 ?( [: }/ L; s0 j2 O# A9 r As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 D! U/ i+ C  R1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% E# u: S9 s& z; Z" s3 y3 }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 ~8 n* ?0 j. W% R* b: G3 ]
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  ^6 z5 z' G: o. C; W. y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  y6 a, ?. j( \8 c2 V' s+ z4 mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 S3 M2 z3 R7 i
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
: k' g+ u% g; B3 H# |! a The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 v' z/ p* S, e# n# q5 W$ O
but that was before Italy.
3 t+ [$ \) D3 m3 `# v, [0 ~ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% `% B& ?# P. ?5 r+ q) i: u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. c% R5 E- R1 ?" I' K/ YItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
7 C5 |. k9 p* x4 g. l We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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