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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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% s' I. w" U. f% @5 z  DMarket Commentary
3 A( o( X; f9 f/ BEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! u8 K; I9 f6 I- y- GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 ]# X0 x' g' N0 [8 h# V
Signature Global Advisors
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' ]8 g9 H, G* Z5 S6 _Background remarks
; ~% `$ s7 n; |8 B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- _5 j$ V: Y2 i8 x, t: [3 {, h9 I
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; Q5 R' B. i5 e( \& o
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* W: @  Z  m& m* R% h5 {
adjustments.: |7 X9 V" W: O6 h; m$ }% ?* [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 i4 v$ O( F% Y9 r" y( Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ Q4 Y1 n3 w3 c1 V* t4 o9 p! V$ h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* Y6 C- w+ v4 X; L4 S4 L. C: E6 vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; B' _6 F& n! [9 l5 |
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' f: ?3 A0 H! B$ M3 zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 }" ]1 K- z5 B$ S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* ^( y( q' ?. q2 m6 iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
+ S& L0 `  G/ M1 L+ Y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) `/ a2 B' \) \& M0 M
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; F& h* i$ J2 m  V3 \5 ?
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 }0 {+ S# Q2 H1 B0 d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' @3 X9 x8 q1 k) A' t3 F
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 e" e2 k2 f" _impose liquidation values.+ P7 C; D+ T6 M5 s4 N4 A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* F" V) m" _$ o5 k) M' U9 ]8 M! w* s4 OAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ s' R3 A* j& _' k5 @( L, U, @
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. A1 T4 {; b! B- r: a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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8 R% e+ `7 t* {; E5 x# NA look at credit markets
* W5 ?  w% e$ P* w2 Q( h6 r# [ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* Z3 h) n9 v6 a$ I' W2 u) hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 v% m; F$ H/ g+ o% X' r! @, ] High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: F+ h! D3 a. \5 l" V7 T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; w0 a1 b& {$ q. B3 y- gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  ^+ M6 O) f3 A1 l& Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 @, s7 T- R! m. X! sCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 Z: j: P& m- f7 D! _% G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: s7 D+ T2 x" C7 e9 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( ?/ p- l) H, `5 ?1 O* lfinding financing.
- q, P6 [0 O6 Q& J2 @3 S0 P Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 s) B" R4 s- O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ _- J$ @3 L, d) p  R2 B
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! k# M" f8 K/ y" E. ], Mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ j6 t( M+ S, k, B/ |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! z- `8 x9 `) ~8 j( g# e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 O8 b7 y( V' S2 u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 X+ B( M1 g: G2 btoday.
" D: g# [( E* |% M9 n  D/ {. ^2 i Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' r5 ]& Q$ a" demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# v/ Q: x5 I+ K$ \. {+ E Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% o* @& T, H. ethe Greek default.
4 g( S7 k4 k6 {& _3 u( Z- O As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( j  Q9 |" D; ]) T) g" D
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* [) C1 C% q; ~$ e2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  a3 ]# K, }7 N* ]9 q8 pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.. H' ]% P, i4 k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 {1 y7 J4 o( t% [6 k/ ^
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. T( d! \3 U7 p- Z  j" W6 `- U/ ?% ^
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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. m" ^% q/ X$ ]0 l" l+ GBeyond Greece( R8 E% B3 T8 W
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( X0 `" s$ c. \4 ybut that was before Italy.
- f$ |) m( e0 R" }2 @  z It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 S! t  t2 W. L# {2 d4 u# n1 I: e It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the! B2 e- w# {( A
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; H; |- J% w3 [& d
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Conclusion( [/ t+ }$ ]  z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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