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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. e5 |- N' ~* w  u' d& ]+ |
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Market Commentary
* h& ]- J) s9 n, J, sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, @/ m, ]  p" q0 q# r& x2 l) MJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 v' Q1 I* u3 g. U6 _6 h3 v) A# e
Signature Global Advisors& N7 s, u( W, k6 x) O

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Background remarks
5 c6 z% X; u" q9 o Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- B2 n0 |$ n% ]( T
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 A/ E* C) m  [7 t- I Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 S. b7 F6 u# O! N/ ^: k' }9 O
adjustments.- Z# }# c& v0 |' a( @. D0 B
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. U; N' R1 p/ @& M" L: [# s
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 A! p% E0 n* g4 T" ?& L6 T2 _ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 F' z2 R1 _& clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.3 O, z  O# i: b6 g. b3 J! H
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 i: j- r1 B& t3 ~2 cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' @0 e/ [/ C  O* D, N6 R8 R  C Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- P  K  C4 j$ }) I( |) Y+ ]8 g+ Vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 Z9 Z; h+ Q9 G% x2 N7 m; d Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 }7 v+ G. q0 Q& ]
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( ~( |- e0 p* k. k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: n3 H4 z# @0 w8 V4 @9 z& _) M The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 S( K0 f% P0 c  }as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" R: Y# S; l) _# j; N& W. fimpose liquidation values.) y' M6 T- I7 t1 Y6 H
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* y5 z' d  c( _August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 R/ G: a' S# T( y. v) U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 y; l4 {( b( g3 l, }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 Q+ K* V) M( m& B2 E

( `$ e  l, Q' T9 ]5 OA look at credit markets
* j5 H" \6 }) A7 N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* [" U2 C5 x$ c( y2 N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& r3 Z. w7 H4 n3 E4 {/ V
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: o" V+ y* j  J8 A! R, {7 t  U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 U: t2 p" I+ D$ rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# J& D2 ]! D: K2 m0 a1 H5 c/ y4 B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- k2 c- E( E( PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ z9 ~- _: E/ A; S0 a$ }
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& h9 K! @5 z+ n1 G, f, M
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 d8 \' B4 M& i, ^( F* J2 u
finding financing.
1 H* |4 l" W6 n) A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; z: N* V# _" @2 f' D. Gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  G5 N, i2 B  L  { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 |2 g: P/ o1 R0 F/ z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 C7 a& r( i" Q; ~+ R) F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 N, j3 u$ [9 b: s5 R5 pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 c* L0 P9 w' I8 k. v- F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! Y6 M0 m2 L) u
today.
7 c" R2 p. E' h/ h- S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- m- G. U- u2 q* R. @6 w) x6 memerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  L2 [5 G, r+ l6 f& B Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! L7 m7 u" y1 }3 zthe Greek default.
) C( S: t8 K, r7 q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 R; y8 |- X/ Y( p1 F* ^3 V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ @7 s3 V8 `- x2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ N+ o: p1 R& K/ |7 @
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.- z2 S( ^, W: D$ A8 u1 }6 n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 t' m1 }% ]' U4 j* Z/ Q
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 Y8 m! _' B8 i" T1 o5 G: A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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0 j9 p6 y( c2 H0 t6 Z  c) LBeyond Greece
) \* l  @8 k1 M$ i4 h* ^ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 r! t4 ~! [3 F+ N! _0 u
but that was before Italy.0 S4 K! A0 T+ X& @# _! x9 |! d1 u
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) D1 \( g. m( Q% |: x It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# j* W/ U2 q# S! ?  VItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 |. O  q; H. \5 }' A. t
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Conclusion  V6 h/ [+ b- z& m' A0 u0 f
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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