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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
5 b; |, f) A% Q6 R  Y$ a  m4 a! [& h! K- y6 |/ M: ~6 Z& w
Market Commentary* T1 I: ^# f/ E
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 q+ H% E  Q* A) \$ F! M
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& V# l( @. j* a4 G# s# f& ^Signature Global Advisors
& K# [& ^# I+ \6 y
# k6 V, }, n; V; b6 W: K: g
7 }9 Z0 ^  \/ E+ HBackground remarks
5 T+ h  R4 u1 s2 C0 ?# U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( v# u" a- M8 p( A# g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; G' O7 c4 T. I0 z, [+ z$ i+ y
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 E$ v" l3 q$ h4 u' X0 F0 zadjustments.( X/ G% h0 N  v4 p/ T  k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ f: x- C9 b. a3 f: v' w8 d
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" ?4 n* u: w$ p1 @ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
+ ]( Q0 F# N% y# b. Klessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& }0 S: ?* d  x  Q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% y7 W+ v& h4 M
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* x6 c0 v$ B0 {# E" F* r9 K3 ^ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& T7 q, x. q1 y/ @0 L1 T% Bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 N) F4 D* g, j$ h& o
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.1 ^: W; w: H! d
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 U% C7 s6 D1 m9 [( Yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; j3 q  e3 b0 j; [ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: m7 ?! p8 S: `! k/ P% U% n: F* Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 d+ X+ ^: g' N! C
impose liquidation values.% O( |  b. B0 C) D: n
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 a2 Q# _0 T) \4 O& R, \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 u& ^% ]8 A8 G) l& K3 j5 W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 C# h( T) L& a9 c% uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; g2 q  w) ]. q' O% F/ S  H
% z/ \4 i* F  b# ^' g+ M, RA look at credit markets( S( W6 u  k, _# C
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# A  P1 _; f: t7 Y& Q* x- u. ]4 q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 u$ z$ j$ i+ p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 O% d% g7 L& f1 H6 b) U. Q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: H, \  C! U- _. x
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 z, e/ B1 R! n0 m& h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! n+ z5 Z: i, V+ OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! W" Y% W6 G8 i$ kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# \* R; n& R0 x7 b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- U  d; n- A  p  r+ K1 M4 _finding financing.
( R: p4 O+ Y3 @  A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 @& e8 x* t, jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' `$ k# `: y1 a% \2 {
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  G8 Z( t& p- O5 N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' ^2 q$ |0 H+ Q; J) l: Ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# {7 @- j/ ]2 e7 v0 h4 U+ F+ p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% v2 h  g; Y  {- _7 e4 y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( D8 M7 K& g+ s. _* S8 G5 R, gtoday.
0 ^( @1 _; F6 y# [+ |2 i Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 W0 U; R# ?: a( x( F& m* u+ Demerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* P7 v8 W; b- Q8 s2 x# M6 R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( T7 u8 z+ l' H7 z3 c+ Zthe Greek default.
$ |* C, T4 T9 s( o, g As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- j2 U' e" }6 P$ |; b
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: Y5 L2 f. \& z9 i, w2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 r0 M0 u7 M& Y$ N  I. h6 [
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ D. f) B1 I; E6 @2 B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 a) @$ e- _  _( m  c, U
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 k7 |  |0 [; _" A7 h! ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 B2 K; [5 U1 P/ |; x
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Beyond Greece( i5 y* Z- z( b  L1 a
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  D* \6 O) H5 z) o4 ~& V
but that was before Italy.
1 h$ t5 y' k( Z2 T# b It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
3 M9 _* o+ t# A2 P. {" P It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 n5 {8 `" A6 y- T, A& ]Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
( P* U  K5 c- ~! q" v  S We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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