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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: A$ C8 @1 P' z2 O) Y" W, k" `& @' s
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Market Commentary! O0 E, p% @" p6 r6 }
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& f8 \! {. n' ?# v7 hJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ x7 n/ s. A8 Z8 M- t+ LSignature Global Advisors( ^, r) m, B+ Q5 Q! n

$ K9 G8 E4 y( ~6 I$ I! U" r4 \6 U) k6 w* J
Background remarks& H; K# b1 ?  T" n
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! X; j; ]! F9 L: a3 F) C, O0 F, L
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# L: q; c* j* |5 W* x4 _
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 C9 o7 K. J: M% C7 s
adjustments.
- I$ D' F# W1 Y# b6 N This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! q. c6 M$ I7 Ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; e% r5 D" e5 g9 e
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are( K$ h! m% s; s# O; K' q  Q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 ]4 z8 t- p5 V1 H$ o$ f
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ s  @9 ]0 J$ m0 |. d! @/ nadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; ~. p# f% a: P; i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( o+ t! M/ ~6 _+ Cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
+ h9 g: m5 O6 l! m$ w0 @ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- E& `- W! B" W: |& g Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. D2 [  a+ Z2 @, t# Y4 G7 H
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 C0 p& U2 v9 F6 L$ i( Q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ ?1 ~) ^3 T/ c+ \9 z, Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 v/ u3 O6 Q, V% R# g& Timpose liquidation values.) o! h4 B! Y! c
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 ^9 l8 V3 J5 ]3 p# ?- E3 Q( NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 W: p2 s2 A0 g# @9 s
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- v1 b' |8 Z( P" j( ?
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# p5 l# Y& @9 L% u- V( T

6 K3 G+ g# j8 Q0 r7 mA look at credit markets
  s: l! {9 Z) ^+ n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' U/ _- ?2 W  y5 v! o7 l
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' C. R! ]; U$ |9 r2 C High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 q2 j0 D' j! l  ^
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ V+ B0 U3 p" n3 B7 Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 j" K3 y" G! J- u! U2 j# W6 @2 [/ daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 I, u% p) k  j0 [% u4 I$ ]1 p" LCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" A) G4 u& I4 G3 P' Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* I) h  S) v- I) T5 N
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! E( u9 @# B3 V, p3 x* a, afinding financing.' r# }6 A; S3 J1 Z( x( \9 W& W
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* z" y! p/ S* x2 n; b! F( m1 _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; B0 U% M8 W% @4 J0 o# W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ F& U4 E! D. tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. n1 R6 S$ D6 i3 K$ \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
3 z' t& R$ v0 q4 m7 M! bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 X% F; D8 j4 E4 |; [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ F" J% v; R3 N; C/ W5 _  b4 M
today.
4 p1 T  |9 b( ^6 m  V Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: O) Q8 O8 w. n0 y& kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 F- U0 N6 k1 m$ X0 ]
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 `! T4 P' p7 f. l# P
the Greek default.& w# a3 b, m' Y9 H) z! \# L  o
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& M+ C9 {7 L0 i3 \! F: Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 E: F# \; \, n; C, [  d
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* f1 s& O2 a8 I3 a
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& `- ]: ?+ L: O" c3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 J6 k- U1 Q9 V- ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% K3 A9 ^! Z% g3 d' B' G. G
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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+ Z' v. q* D* U" IBeyond Greece
. ]- k7 ]- W2 k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% m; M, g- J" [) A3 ]1 ^
but that was before Italy.
6 N/ y2 {( y6 C) M( n It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- R, W2 c* H2 Q0 P  C1 r- T$ F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 m3 r+ g' |" w2 l* ?
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* }2 |1 S# _- ?' j( I: o  \

% ^, A& q, D7 `# ?3 w  |Conclusion
+ b( _/ {: C7 t We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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