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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
1 h7 J. G5 o0 v* y' s& D% I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 |8 E" l1 D. \1 Z u( Z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 Z1 `* g: k2 l( n5 J
impose liquidation values.' ]& `' W1 }+ F. l% K2 Z8 }, ~
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 B6 u# O7 H+ A, o. \/ y' g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( \6 Z5 G& F( l5 I3 o The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
J, A3 g% ?$ Y8 Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( L& V3 H7 s4 Y$ _: @
, m& P# i* Y! u$ w: ?6 y$ AA look at credit markets. k$ N2 j6 u4 Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" U, o) Y% B! n& K7 h, L" E- h3 e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 _. W" Y! |8 V4 {+ a* a' V High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 D9 ]* P5 M. Q" e9 j( j$ f( S5 Z8 z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& ~; o; R+ a& |* }% H" j/ Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* L. G. Z' v1 n8 Z" Z. E9 ]0 a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" q: r4 E; u) fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ Y8 d3 K7 H1 l- h
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, X g( b2 y7 S q! i Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ L* O# q1 g6 e& |; x* W# B/ Jfinding financing.2 x5 `. u( z! {, |/ u* m7 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' ~* d& R1 V: d9 v& q4 a9 |& wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' x% H# K) m7 u0 i9 N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 d; t3 r' l' t c" W" H5 Bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% ~8 @" Z, Z( l" E1 e" |+ Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% d# Y3 R+ Y& k8 o
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* d$ i" @" I& F) t/ w' ~! O: b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% q O9 P2 D& O/ B3 M
today.7 R! k# e/ }8 C+ ?" |8 j( Y6 V0 v7 ]5 l
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# g" ? K# Y9 n) g1 `
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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