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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
7 _# I( n3 ~- l. {& s
( n* Y3 M  _' N4 g2 ^. lMarket Commentary
3 o9 ~( S' f# OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 w/ B( U9 K9 U) f# d- k
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. C( f8 \( a& O" O
Signature Global Advisors) N/ s3 f9 w, r# G9 }
8 u! s  }$ @: s! L" r

- s( e; Q8 A+ c& J5 O) C1 CBackground remarks$ v$ C8 J- ?) F
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. K1 g) n# `( a- i  P! {as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 M1 C# N1 g. T2 N* ~ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 J8 G; p1 l" Y5 Y+ j* |# Dadjustments.% A. N; L/ Y# {& ?
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 u+ b7 p6 O/ S/ R% jsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.4 n% _8 d- E$ u7 `7 F" W( }  M( r
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* _6 K( U& U1 o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, i6 }  x4 D7 ], j4 S5 c& o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, G9 h; Z/ ]9 o+ T# v3 y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, A* o* B1 s$ @, ]1 G, k Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" `8 {& m8 a* o1 ]7 v6 W
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.% P. c  j7 f: p: C6 Q
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 m* E9 H8 H* m3 S1 }5 ?1 H! ]
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& c8 E: n  P: a" ^reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ B7 i2 v8 |7 ^/ w* j6 I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( i% [" n# u9 i1 ~- ^  V  u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" i4 @3 r+ F  r/ N, ^" T$ ~
impose liquidation values.- r9 r& w8 m1 I6 k9 B
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 Y; m% W3 ]& Y4 WAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' K# _5 A3 m6 B* Q, I+ ?. @$ z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' ]# K9 C8 r1 Y& ]3 r& m4 ?- s
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." o4 j! o& w1 C9 y) l1 a

: ^& ~0 `1 G. G4 ?- j9 M( YA look at credit markets
) u% O" N$ @) l0 x+ e4 b6 d% H Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 Q6 B: _6 ?8 G& L3 p! GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* @2 G3 ~' r7 b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: [! I6 R. Z8 _9 Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 F  S* ?" D4 E' n* c) Xbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, [& p6 J6 N1 x" {access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ I/ ]& `/ Q2 ^; e' l! U% i0 r8 e
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 t- I) Z0 H! D7 z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 W+ Q: T- f$ x' }1 R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 q" M4 H# U; a& {$ tfinding financing.: `) j) G+ y/ r( T
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 a  E. Y+ v, A# i% P0 t
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- M$ @1 @) Z6 h. j6 X9 \( Y$ ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 p3 @! ~3 H  z# \7 Q' qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ V# ?: I- _; D$ `( }) ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; g7 ]( m8 j) U
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; Q% G( M( _2 a* V* x* P1 B- _3 q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" N% p$ D, s) T: l
today./ [" R) ?2 W! G, V/ J
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 O( h5 g1 C. v3 w8 k3 W  H% Temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 p( i' j0 n$ U
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  o1 \  x+ q/ p7 m" }$ athe Greek default.2 g9 H! `9 _! A9 Y$ A# T  `
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. W1 g- Z3 S/ k" `! M, K
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 w2 ~* I  @" Q2 n
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ b7 x7 u* B! ~& f- C  K+ Ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; @* W) I  o* x# D! W1 g: k0 E% o3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. [: w0 l2 c* Z/ E' W( F  K. gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 M0 g5 d9 W8 C8 j/ l4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 @. X9 ^3 q* G6 G
% Y4 m! n1 p$ S1 S0 h$ x4 K& v
Beyond Greece  b, a; C" T& b2 H/ y2 O- x: _
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 i# N5 Z: f) S. g& p2 R' L5 P. Q
but that was before Italy.
9 \: x8 E0 O' N2 @3 u# t0 j7 `3 F It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( T+ x& J/ P6 G2 x It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! \- e2 }" I- GItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# }) U+ F0 ~8 t" h" a
7 d& o# C6 f- ~" u+ V
Conclusion  A, l; A- R( K. }! Y
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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