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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. g, w3 A( H3 O: u) A: B# X  R

' z' Y) Y7 J1 b6 B: E: }/ K3 \/ |Market Commentary( a4 j; T- z* Z% t! [  W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, X& v2 E5 r4 {0 G4 M) ?8 LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: P5 c# J+ A. ~  j1 x! N
Signature Global Advisors
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7 M' p& |# Y: u9 U0 @+ Z
Background remarks$ G7 C( y3 ?; }. ^5 _7 H, E1 d# z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" N/ _3 E2 ^/ o. pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." a1 z3 v1 g5 m8 W  {% x; v# I
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ c8 u* N4 g9 `# B! Nadjustments.
$ g0 a( K: X' n; Q: C5 O This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 [2 @8 W9 W* a8 ?7 t) k6 \$ [% Isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ M8 h( k- a" A1 i7 Z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 `+ e6 I) k( W( K& T
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ n0 L. \% N  T7 y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) _6 p) Y! f% ]( p$ ^
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# t! U; t' A" J Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; O. g& h% s9 g' m
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  Q- O+ i! ^2 b1 F, B Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 m9 g' f& i, k. G, M0 z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 B8 d' z+ B2 \2 r! ~% q7 C* rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 V) ?/ q# Y+ E5 C$ T5 D The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ v4 J" H: V7 D' o# R# @4 W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& g0 [. B, d* m# h! d+ Y) f4 d/ p
impose liquidation values.
9 F) A/ w0 I' m/ ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 y! B# _- P! c5 DAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ Z# Z1 @  w# r& L' r. D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ e( \9 V9 `; c! f8 u! nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: {( r/ b* z+ l0 l8 Z
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A look at credit markets& ~2 L6 S( K3 ?9 L. f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 G. p6 k1 `5 E' v" s+ mSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 v5 x0 c4 {1 l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' J1 m3 k( T8 ^. Wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 F6 }6 l, A) v0 Qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: S( z+ E( \8 H, d/ E  Oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 v! H  b* k/ J6 p: }- c" ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# r  w( K# ?/ R: t& S0 wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ X: O5 P; ^+ u. `* O9 s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; M  r# W$ t3 d" W) H. r$ `  ^0 M
finding financing.
! s0 `4 S; q: S' D! p4 _ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; @+ G6 j* X0 C# x9 t1 F
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 D9 z! O" u) W& ], \8 Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: m$ u0 K1 G) P, h5 E1 Pis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ k* D/ [/ W! Cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ a2 q, m8 E+ m/ ~5 c: pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 z, O3 s8 Q6 _! |% [+ i2 F" f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 z! I; O3 }' ftoday.+ j- m, t- V4 Z, [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- U% d+ a# _# l# }# X1 e3 T9 e. I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ S4 Z9 v& P( @5 \1 ]/ c; W
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. Z* {2 I) r& i6 p4 L
the Greek default.
2 s# v5 G/ y! U9 d. ?/ ~- G As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
# m5 g" Q- ?$ l. c+ b1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ l8 p" G, m1 ~/ W" }
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& A+ z6 R/ C/ Z
debt stabilization, needs government approvals., w0 ^5 J4 `' V4 K6 |
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( r  o; q4 N. \" Gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 |5 {: T" ?* _3 ~; O! K/ Q& ?4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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& X: B! Z" M# YBeyond Greece
/ X! `+ a5 r  t* E- O The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 f4 m6 N# t6 Y/ h1 pbut that was before Italy.1 U' l" w1 L3 _
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 i( `1 a+ p7 T  N% v1 ?2 F
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, o+ T2 g& A# }, o$ ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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; l) U/ C" b/ z3 p& P  }Conclusion- V, a/ E3 O; y# r) q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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