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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  B2 g5 U3 {" ]& j+ r" e- X8 f$ u4 A0 ]

4 n% Z* p" z( Y( R! EMarket Commentary; R3 H: Q/ S( ?$ h/ U, J- \4 ~4 ^
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 {5 N( @4 o' j8 M4 r' P
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 D3 B1 ^1 T+ [/ q7 N" v1 d
Signature Global Advisors
; u/ J& A9 i$ y2 `- o5 }: C7 Y* e2 h2 \  {8 V4 i

/ D$ I; T- h3 ~1 c$ t' jBackground remarks( x( Q) w9 O- |8 q& ~
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  w* }2 m& a7 N8 I* G) `
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 A1 ~2 b( I( g8 U* L7 a; M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal1 G* j8 J/ O- m" A( e* ~
adjustments.
& S4 U9 ^/ p0 C1 J: b$ C, V' \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# J, w/ V, t4 e. q" ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 d4 L2 @/ A# e
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' k& k. u. R2 c  e! Z; q% o+ l! q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ K4 t- O6 c! ]2 d We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 u9 j( C1 g7 o8 n% A. x! n/ Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ |0 S7 k( x, h8 y" g4 _6 B Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% f" r2 D- b) I0 N5 W
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; Z7 w$ C$ m9 z7 M, q  Q5 u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 O1 I; L+ i1 d) Z" E" F! R
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
* w' L& q% }9 ]5 C! [8 ?0 Dreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ O) Y$ P% R. R+ I  ?. h; _ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: e2 C8 c5 n/ \7 {; v( O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% t. [4 m3 n0 t: D- A! [
impose liquidation values.; @1 G7 @' S+ j: g  t3 t2 e9 C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! u2 g" R+ M: x) ^3 B- ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# o, v# U! J6 N. J" [0 r
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ o0 |' i8 J$ d, j+ m5 ?# `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
3 t, C" _% i2 Z( C; P
( W: p* u9 `- i6 u$ PA look at credit markets
, k' a& ?* V4 M3 ~  Z- i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: ?( l5 s8 n" z9 lSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 V; o) j4 t- p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 _1 {: Q6 t5 l' cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! M4 S1 I3 ^8 X& h3 f' e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 j7 S* G) E9 @% ~; i/ N8 Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 G# ?. V8 p9 YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 a3 v9 \2 ^8 S8 M* ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 \& Z6 f7 |( ^) Z; n Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 _% n1 E3 }* d1 ^  R. Efinding financing.2 i) R' k! L% f0 L0 d4 _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) G/ J- e! I* L. \8 u# M) f# e
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. J& a- M6 a. z7 x! D) X
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) e+ y; V9 D/ u8 v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ n5 r+ z2 h* V' T& Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! z5 U5 \" D6 W) R( o: }: `bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 x' v4 Y2 p( p3 X' v European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( Q- P( H$ m( E6 q, y5 Z/ S3 [" Ftoday.
' k) K8 d  ^4 u7 C Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; G: p& o) e$ S! Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' C& z- H  J+ h5 ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' f4 @% h/ |, v. sthe Greek default.3 \, p& W0 O* y" I  {2 V
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 W- W' f1 C# x7 j
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 X0 m* Z  Z+ `4 ?+ A2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 Y# x8 G+ q) V. I$ |3 `debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! ?4 ]# P, J& I( T0 H3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 `1 A' q( I1 k! A. q- y+ f9 h
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ G5 `% J# P$ _
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece7 f7 N' z# R5 a- {% I
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 n0 L0 |: K+ Mbut that was before Italy.2 Y" @  l# W+ e7 l! L* J" ?& ~8 t
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! d" b8 S& p2 l1 `+ k6 H It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ }0 Z8 `' M5 T2 A- x3 O9 t
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# D" J) |# ^" w+ v2 i9 s

1 a5 v1 V& E. }Conclusion/ v6 s' X/ \* e  @2 \
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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