 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation: m; J! ^' h- _: I0 n
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ d0 c6 n$ e' K, P2 F
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" G2 j' N- P; l" e- O5 i
impose liquidation values.# Z- P3 w7 x4 A- ]3 U+ M# U
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 E6 F2 ]0 c* L: rAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: T' o. S) d. W% Y4 ]
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* B" n, ~- \7 Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
: k R$ k- V7 o% ^8 ]2 n( l) D6 B1 W( s' v$ t( a
A look at credit markets
, {' A& @- U7 o0 ?6 V; _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ Q# ~" S1 ?' u9 R- V
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., _1 O# ^) E% T+ {# n6 Y4 B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 _2 N i$ S6 S2 L; ?) B. }/ ?: U& Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( W( k5 I! D& D, D! @4 ?" Rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, H( A) z$ o; o+ H% v3 k
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 a& ?' P* ?5 N( g: _" ICCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' I# q3 I$ t# e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 \$ O3 i. b. }1 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' G" l' F$ ~, v4 s/ hfinding financing.0 y& C9 m/ |. X( ~3 r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( k6 t/ x% W, m N Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 |$ D& j0 ]; Q' p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 U* S4 ]4 G- |+ U$ ~is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 `& i4 S* Q1 egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. l. M7 C5 ]: K" g; {1 z" y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, g+ i* `( J, B! ~% @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ T( Z$ d# a* V5 ~) K
today.8 o) V7 w9 |: X3 m
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 P3 q) u0 z! w0 u% ]7 A9 {emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|