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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 s1 t9 c% V- H6 dMarket Commentary
: {) e2 \0 k; a  sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 g" s( I2 O/ e% }9 H' CJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# K6 b/ W" d3 b* e2 iSignature Global Advisors
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1 P+ s) i$ \, p7 M3 o0 XBackground remarks/ k4 ?  Z$ F& P3 ^, P* p: b# g9 v8 n. U
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ D; }& p0 Z) j7 g6 n' I( W$ o$ \) e
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. O( P, N; B6 @7 l$ r3 o/ h' G Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal! z& @" m. x8 Y3 j
adjustments.
  n$ I  i0 k0 \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! Q! H  p- I- J. H' I' ^, |
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 j; I6 q5 r$ q$ n Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) w% ~! a2 i& Y4 {lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 a+ _+ Q; N' H; \8 `8 M! w
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 f8 P5 F" l5 q
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. w3 W( p' f: W+ [( \) A
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
7 I4 K- N, o4 q* Y8 rquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; e5 Q8 E4 H1 J Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& X: [- n( K7 M, Q* ] Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 b4 b; b+ X' g- I* w
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* D/ f3 v, N$ T! |% G The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 r# V3 Q5 a/ [9 f1 ^7 i' _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 l5 A5 M: Z* R( ?- T. C; vimpose liquidation values.) t9 T# @. s, N; T+ G: a* k1 N
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 u2 J9 a9 |' z  ^0 ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 G! H5 I. D4 U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 y; n7 q6 @2 {& c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% p: v$ ?7 w0 g( o& ~- L: [

* Z+ u7 [) P: T5 J: AA look at credit markets  p5 D' N0 ?" c5 I* J8 y% M0 c* ?
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- F2 S) N7 A8 y  ~: ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) |4 B7 ]( w! I/ l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. [+ g4 I( F+ g9 c
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ n; h7 j/ t7 @* @billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 L) O2 G9 T4 N* m. D1 a# haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ [( n/ x7 o5 ]* g% P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% E& F" x" s+ O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  F& _0 J+ y& R( Z# i6 N% w
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! Q( K# R2 L7 ^3 n$ A/ X
finding financing.- A9 k1 H3 x" P# v; f
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 S4 h8 R  F) v+ I& r' _; r  a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 J$ e# `2 u2 v, O% R! P% [; L. O# P
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. _( x4 z7 w, f) d
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: l9 A2 J- w+ H& ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 X+ f. S' J) ^  k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* k8 G+ Z2 L! ?8 B* [0 @# p6 }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. e2 D9 U# ]6 D
today.
# X0 p% ?# ^7 `8 Y) T, Q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% m! z' x8 ~$ z- cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( Q9 p. C; _* s/ w0 s& ~8 R* b Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: u6 s. {3 n- B
the Greek default.+ i9 b& ^3 [3 X" W/ p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 w2 c' j' z+ k) a, O
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. [8 H+ b- T# {) a$ O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# W- X9 ?0 c3 u( k! X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 u; T; t% j3 h  ?2 }% G3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# J5 h* W1 ]; O1 }1 H1 |banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: a) a1 M( x7 ^" j" i# Z' q% p0 A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; C! C" ]+ y3 E' j5 z$ Z
9 o1 S, c7 |" T& h* f( m
Beyond Greece
0 t0 b  z. l! a5 W; w+ ~6 ] The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ D  Y) s. F! N* M
but that was before Italy.3 e9 l, s" y2 L3 \, J( `, p
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- L/ a( e; y3 x* z; m
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 h- G/ c$ `' V# L( X4 HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion% [( M  j6 i8 q$ k1 ~/ P7 L
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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