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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% X! u- |5 O! i( l+ g

9 V2 L6 ]  y  R4 R1 ]+ fMarket Commentary
0 H5 |" j9 e  F& j) Y/ vEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! E$ B! J. R% z. QJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# w7 P' \4 k  P+ F/ z6 p2 Y& WSignature Global Advisors
8 v& h4 X" v6 F( H; }
6 y$ k4 j$ k2 C9 x8 u8 G9 P
3 h* t) `! y1 a) EBackground remarks
3 T5 I, B3 N& m( Q' P( t2 m Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ a! V2 h0 Y9 L0 g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ M  p' v6 O* S/ f7 H* H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( V4 m8 }  \: m) e! Z7 wadjustments.
9 B# ?9 {' y9 L- F This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: N- D7 v/ b5 L  P* W. m0 L2 S$ M  |& Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 Y  v+ x$ g! ?1 S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& z& W' y  P% D- Klessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 C5 C; H8 f# t' X' M
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
9 N- f! t0 _. M$ J) L8 `* k( e6 H; Cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ h% H% c$ J% n, j( d5 d" Q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# X' z- S$ }3 }: n3 D0 Q! Z! ]quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 Y- C( z, b" L6 [ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 }# X- ?4 _; M- d
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 K4 o, m( l. m" Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; R+ v3 ^# W$ q) @2 s
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 ^; X( C/ y3 k: \( q; Y; C% ~' Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 M. e8 ~, Y# h- d0 M' V' ~9 Z9 E. p
impose liquidation values." J7 Y: v# L: w* i/ _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 Q9 {1 W- r% o" K) `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  g4 [8 q+ X$ O$ V! g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& T% D/ a* z* L# O* _: h( u+ Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ Q0 i1 @0 E( V7 x0 w! ?
5 Q8 s3 G( y4 p4 r
A look at credit markets
$ F2 h. ~% b. |+ I. ?3 U Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; R: n7 ?! e* C  O' N! i+ \" lSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., V# {4 C' ]4 ^' E" K( b( D3 k4 e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ O7 J4 K' X, r: v! s, {/ x
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( T' q9 V: R& {' x5 Y" y% ^% mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 a, [  d' J- K3 P" q9 P7 uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; a/ p0 }5 r; J! K0 R+ }# X
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; p5 S6 Y2 `% k; s3 A8 w$ \positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 `& j6 M/ Y+ t4 Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" M& {6 r; F& F" C4 Lfinding financing.
, n% q3 T' P$ I% e& y5 l Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ }# `) g3 B+ u) @were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., [/ V" z5 A+ g& j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. a( t  B$ v0 {( T  x' D5 _$ eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  o! N9 D& {1 ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 X% N7 @: }: {, o, r9 Z3 c' [# ~4 ^% t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., J7 S) S! ?) p0 t2 p5 \) t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; P, \, K/ B1 S! J
today.
' L# E8 w6 @) s% ?! f# f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, A! d3 C+ H; ?8 S% j0 F8 N, H
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ O$ ?. n" |! V* Y( G% i0 h* Z% G" ?* r
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 `; Q9 l/ c5 l: f2 t
the Greek default.
2 f4 y2 \0 E, G8 b" r/ [ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- q( o* m3 V7 }4 _
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& I( @+ @$ g- _9 p
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 j( Y( ]! Y, }! |6 C! c
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( a; w% a2 H# |# g' D5 P3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  D6 M( X5 R$ X$ r. u% }% `6 \banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 j7 X, ^& v# u8 f7 T/ C& U/ Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
. _. ]. u4 j  G1 ]& }
1 C6 ^- w! [* a2 r) H0 rBeyond Greece8 q7 E9 i% C  M8 Z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; ~2 \( N0 ^0 N  K( s0 w. r/ k
but that was before Italy.7 X9 `# x- ?7 }6 V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 O& a1 n& e, m  a8 N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 @7 e$ v5 i; A6 Q. [" \$ }Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# p% l9 T' N8 d; U. S
3 D& u& J- K$ D/ {2 ]1 {
Conclusion
& _" G5 T' }7 I/ H We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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