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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! K; j4 s4 Y4 r* U$ q2 T1 f! R

8 f  D4 \7 F# g+ ]  bMarket Commentary
5 Y3 Z" m, b4 h! P8 o$ qEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 k3 t8 U) ^) j6 _3 _7 MJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 e) ^/ w' d" H. |$ aSignature Global Advisors
& b7 k) m6 r& E+ H9 |, t6 z% }7 T1 N

& X7 d, P. K1 H# N9 m& HBackground remarks. R8 A$ X; ~+ Q6 m& i1 I0 L' B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 {; D+ {! \0 x: H. I' mas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ A7 X# z0 d2 c1 E, }
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. ?  G3 ?+ x  U, B& @adjustments.
' b! ~9 i9 M& X This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) ^$ H7 H! `5 v, |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: p8 f1 W. m% E) Q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" I2 F" b7 C' M$ Q. |lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- ^( J3 T# K9 I! M& M; O+ Z/ l
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 _9 o, c, X3 A* B  I
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. F' Z2 P- l/ ]$ C7 V8 ^1 }5 f1 Y6 W4 i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! f9 P6 ~: V! w3 M1 }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. A. b9 ?) d/ s6 Z1 t+ G; e Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
2 D7 B2 N& y8 J/ g$ A Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ ?2 U; p+ ?6 L7 E, }4 P6 l
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; n( O- T3 e* e, V7 P; Z: I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# u7 p  B. p. X5 b8 ?- F  W& T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 W1 d" w0 [$ T9 L
impose liquidation values.
4 U5 [6 D% h+ j; Q- o9 m) h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; K3 e+ H6 s1 V! Z6 {August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; \  m- F" t+ R( P2 K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 q2 M( x8 I  y; `/ Q# n
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( j0 ~; O7 b6 F* x
5 Y8 y4 {2 G/ j: _4 \3 d
A look at credit markets2 n1 b, J; ^! x
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, t9 m7 o" h8 |9 F+ v, |2 ZSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) x% R. W$ n; u1 j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" F& [4 @. p, Y# m( s
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# {  z+ f! X$ P' U9 A
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" \. ?2 W7 x  O' faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ e' c+ _5 M% G4 |( J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( r9 \; f$ e) a# jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, y" C. I8 n- W Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# Z+ D; K+ g' Q+ r) I: y  X2 Cfinding financing.
9 R2 r- O6 d; y4 s+ ^' a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 N- M& U4 ?; g) \  Bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 b" ^4 [, b' b4 x4 k6 t
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 [: i5 ~- o$ H9 N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ S" C$ ^" R: h9 j) ^7 b0 fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; \4 J# b7 `& Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* U- P/ S$ K; K' D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% u- g8 Q4 q# d) r# }0 ttoday.% j% l7 q- U  l; Q! b: H' a$ v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ h( f, W; f; Q; }emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 j1 E% A' F4 R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% d- ?- p2 j0 ]0 M( [. F& j  t1 Q$ Bthe Greek default.
+ A) x4 K7 ]$ T) ~7 {( T. A As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:+ R- k# z8 |$ x4 o1 x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  C$ C# ^2 [2 D9 F2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, W7 S& \4 U& ~. Z! [+ U# h
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ }% v# x8 J1 B6 }% ~3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# t- C1 |' n0 B" a. k8 D1 jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
& {8 S) h" o* w( U( R# |4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! y6 K# i) c' d
( [0 W6 l/ p" q/ z7 G# Q& I; m' J8 J
Beyond Greece: M% Q* \6 p- ?- T  L
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 `6 H5 |( ^2 y' c0 u
but that was before Italy.
) e' n) i' ?1 F' `: @9 S" Q/ x7 q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.6 ~- x. v3 I& n/ t8 c
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the" u% j3 F+ j; N0 g3 [( I0 [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( U' k/ M' _0 ?1 o3 ?* G# G; M
0 e9 d; g7 }) S" N
Conclusion* w2 }5 Y2 H5 o& o, U$ ~& _9 d( ?2 }
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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