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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation3 e5 @. M6 K4 [4 d
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long _# `& O4 t) Y5 _- g. B
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 k5 n R! T% m. D- U( ~/ h3 u
impose liquidation values.
3 { _ b t1 x0 n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 |" `1 \' h6 |. _4 T# ~# w6 v
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ k9 e* o# ^/ \ `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) Q. F* S `9 E" y! kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
* O' x6 x) q$ o' U3 y' U Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 X6 U4 g) z! y5 l5 H
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# s+ ~: {9 s, Y: O, \5 y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 J8 [) x3 s9 L( F$ Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 o; u2 t9 _3 Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# `- P8 A7 t: b8 y
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 b/ p, `: f& g) c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 I _8 A5 Z) B2 I9 ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( |2 G& c5 Q" B; _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. |8 I, Q2 o: Z i0 n
finding financing.( w# E/ G5 ]6 f" g2 E1 S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" q2 i- a2 P, n; \9 ?9 x$ G L+ a" _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& v4 s/ o# ?$ }. s/ g |6 @
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) i# V' W: z, q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& e# f/ C6 V; P* ?% mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ e" ^& n' t$ n9 M6 l5 b
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! O+ P. I" m. o U6 Z- o$ ]+ l European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 \; \" J( x- h7 }% x) I
today.) I- a* `* l2 I8 c0 [* [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# M% _" v/ m; g. i# T" A8 Wemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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