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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; s( @) g. ?" F; i4 E9 r$ t6 ]
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ p! N0 A. _. m# q$ A3 e
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" O/ S/ ]8 o2 P# o( @
impose liquidation values.
9 t0 f! t) F. F! v/ k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( R+ }5 ?9 v, h* ^/ kAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; I( z5 q5 a+ g' A1 D, `7 |' h' H The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, L" P$ R3 J! P* l+ R1 _1 b! {/ Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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3 f8 g- U/ c" S% T) g$ |: B5 {A look at credit markets) {/ A% y- I7 j' M( m1 B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 A o4 {' @$ n- N. k! X6 ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& f" m1 T! k# T' J High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. X' ~4 j- P8 L' Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 U, g# W& r# j' j+ X, E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, e$ v1 {6 Q7 l! N$ }5 Yaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 q2 y5 b, c1 Z3 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 y) T; V1 [+ C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% @( q$ d. V$ C+ L# J$ p. P: s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 Q; v, { e- |7 |finding financing.; A$ ?5 T! ^2 b/ E% B5 z7 d
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 v" r5 }2 l: U. W& bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 D: o. {- a7 b+ B( ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 N9 `; i" r/ W) E! w* A6 V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" U2 q/ f% g4 H+ ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" x1 U) O- w, c5 V
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 N+ c! w( q$ m8 R
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: l l) i0 u3 _& ]+ |today.6 T2 G8 `6 o3 R& M% h
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 w T/ e3 R+ s S* [! b* [2 n1 q
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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