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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 R! U* }! ^! ?, u
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Market Commentary: ^; Z! t$ d7 W, F( p+ }! B$ r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 u) K: e. x8 H) R. b- GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) g$ h/ f: J+ X; PSignature Global Advisors7 W$ B1 s3 @) M5 Q7 s  d
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Background remarks
+ |7 c% @2 Z: p- v! Q$ L Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, P2 Z3 L* s) @3 M3 Y" H5 w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! }4 J8 |6 g& [ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! t  K, |$ ^5 ^adjustments.
% ~. \* a3 e, q. r1 j' E9 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 N# L) U0 P7 v! b& k* r
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 I, K- R4 Z* b6 r4 m! H4 }8 z9 [
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  d; e) O; h( ?% b5 y9 y& ]& ]9 s5 k
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 w/ u" o8 a3 Q5 R" e. a We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ l$ D3 x' N. G4 R1 T8 T8 [. b- w! d
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ _& b0 W5 m; Q0 Z: ]" L0 O Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! g# i- v: g' |+ H! dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. A2 s! K; U7 F7 R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.9 s7 J$ j- s9 i; B
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ O5 N1 q0 o) M( h6 R
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 k# x0 g5 ~! ~& }9 X$ ?' n
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( k5 _$ @5 i( |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) g/ T: a+ ~; R- k9 x; X, X/ k1 p
impose liquidation values.
+ e8 i& n$ |; _ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& ~5 J- b4 p& H5 K1 X9 lAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; g% `) b4 c; P* ^& e6 t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# B5 g" c# X* n* y3 o" k9 j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 p) _% T; N1 a9 k7 f
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A look at credit markets
0 g* L6 t# [$ w9 @; _# U  D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
. {9 k8 A  j* ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& D, E- j1 p1 M) B# A1 e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, g1 F* @. K% {0 j" V: P& b7 Q6 ^then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ V$ O# J* Z' N; s5 M9 hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: Q" [: H$ t8 r$ E0 A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 {6 r+ V6 Q% V9 F* |7 j; H/ r0 H% e
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ S2 |4 |7 V6 M: npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 ?# E) W- u2 m" ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( {/ X: t% M% q& C. x4 j
finding financing.0 q# y. s" ~- a. e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! Z% f# e# Z6 B4 V5 k5 Wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 t; J4 h8 Q1 b0 p# s* L1 q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 Q, K7 b9 d' n: Q3 f/ xis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 e1 I  a! C& Z! D1 g/ k5 |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
2 Y8 g. M5 V" p( H' I' b9 m, Tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 }3 X' m3 D; o1 `* { European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ f- K+ |5 h. o" |0 O0 B
today.( P$ D- c5 L8 O2 h0 K
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* L) e+ C. m7 I: j: @0 Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  U+ \' v5 ]; U! J" ? Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: E8 L1 M) ]2 _
the Greek default.
) ?  T4 N% ]0 w0 N+ k: k As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" }7 g8 G) d6 z8 L1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% O" k$ B' s1 h- S+ U
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ ^/ m* g- ^3 n1 I' {# x0 ]
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 C6 U  l% U) S! J3 }3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ e! \2 E+ S3 {- k
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; m' _6 U" ~" C9 j- R8 U: x4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 D# n& F( u( T+ V( j1 W& c; q# b+ q

' T- a; _" |! }' S5 Y- \0 g# ]Beyond Greece/ i; ^4 m4 E4 V8 ]7 s
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' x, V4 M) g% K3 F
but that was before Italy.9 T6 K3 D% J0 i! U4 l1 _
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 k2 M" j5 d5 n( T1 x
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the! n; `0 L4 Y" H; W0 w4 T4 J- N: M
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* c0 O5 Y1 G% ?& L! c5 q/ j

* t- J; Y& z4 j2 UConclusion( [% }1 |* r( O0 r! _
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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