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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. y! f: E+ D( F' I

/ r- |+ e) J2 W* z, ]6 F! zMarket Commentary6 ^+ c- [! d2 T, ]& X
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* ^+ W7 F( w* F. {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 D3 P% D% H( X0 E( t
Signature Global Advisors
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/ u$ U3 X3 O+ g+ k! nBackground remarks# W% q- m( _/ S& g) T
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ a- k4 o: E4 y8 ~6 r. O
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 S; o6 r7 e, P9 i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: o3 ^6 E& `6 Q2 E' T! `$ f5 |8 N# M: Aadjustments.
0 v: {5 e; t; x This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( h6 K7 N- i$ L8 u9 i
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. e: x/ e  C" ~1 y; x( A6 s# Z
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. [6 Z) U* g3 L3 n8 wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 u1 C/ D3 \3 ?5 T# c* Z% R- S& c
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 M, |/ m+ q. G7 |- c: k% Y% Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." q7 l' v' K5 v, q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% J  p7 ^+ O0 _( O, `7 N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 d$ P- X/ M9 s$ ?! }7 [ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( z) U, H# ]$ W" W( a& z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" T2 r5 j( h+ e# S+ R- preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation$ b& k( _) B( l! C
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- C; l' a; R6 c. uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, Z( q" {+ [, b* U5 n1 Fimpose liquidation values.& @7 X+ M6 R+ S# {- v  K) k
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 v% K6 ]6 U1 o: S* _: I  MAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ E( D' P$ Y7 w* O* p+ n# F The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 _3 K) v$ Z8 d2 V" {6 ?7 cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* H2 z* x+ ~' G3 a- f* f' v
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A look at credit markets
$ Y# c9 ~  N' o8 |, b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: V9 ^1 S4 @8 u: U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." ?$ F+ G$ F3 t% l% B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ ?5 c/ N% i" ~! J% R9 g: R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: r+ \, E- D% ?2 {% c( |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 U  {8 e; k, k1 baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& M* m7 f! k5 f
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* }4 m! M' D* p5 tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* m( a2 w: U- o* \- w1 ?, y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 v% B) t0 g" @# C$ Q
finding financing.
  x6 m. k8 ^# k3 F4 Q Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 o0 w+ |! ?" C0 N+ @& v+ l2 `1 V2 X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; n. y) q. F8 D; X, H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( Y8 {6 ?/ O8 a) u2 |5 _0 }is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 N" A( I  p" x( x  ?; i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ o, s$ \  [6 n+ h+ M" vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 {+ D4 T2 |2 x  F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 C) i/ n# r% r* h. L/ h
today.
& r0 Y  G4 d5 f2 }1 ~- M3 N' I Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( K& b# Z/ P$ t7 h- L- R: \$ c' p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, t. G2 j5 ~+ V! z* J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: D6 c% r4 y# D5 Othe Greek default.8 ]2 p% C; w( u) G' H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:+ P& m1 y1 [( [/ n4 W- B- G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. I" {% M# G' B1 {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ N$ @. U5 z( b* tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.' X5 M, H% R7 d- R. b
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" {9 @* g0 l# n& n! k  Wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years) e5 K3 X5 o) L6 e, _0 M& o3 t
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 o. [/ S8 G8 F- f: `
& S4 @5 [7 Y3 n' {) S% R8 V
Beyond Greece
0 l7 y* n2 Q) ]: @# m7 ^  R7 h The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 t6 S" i: ~* s% Nbut that was before Italy.
7 @; X+ G" h0 Z: e4 A- w5 Z' N It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* E' d! d# R. H; ?5 z7 R It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ v  I" G6 ?/ v. G1 BItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ H$ U( c% R9 N. C1 _# T- q0 v
4 T9 ?3 Q, f' x" a: V8 z& S. L
Conclusion
. C: n- k2 H0 b: d' h We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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