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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary4 ~6 s/ C. X6 G; T% g9 z) t, m
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ W$ U& m- d7 {9 UJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 ~" @% a! H( t/ }& s
Signature Global Advisors
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0 w3 l& Y4 U+ A) e4 R: e6 w" t) ZBackground remarks% O. V% U& ^. N4 L; ?
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! E1 i4 Y4 h. ^% E% f) M
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. y2 g# F. }) D1 x+ m8 p9 I
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* x+ x' ^6 N6 g/ t% q/ k7 k. `
adjustments.
; G2 e; k7 a2 R' a9 a, E! D$ n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" m# q1 s( M' M; q; I
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 j8 N: j( U7 |) s3 T2 O* _! j Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 O: H9 r& l% {8 _  V# Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ _$ `. m/ O- G) d5 `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) h, m$ X8 q1 C4 v! Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 n5 {' ]# i0 z) o0 T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' i1 [4 `- g0 t1 O$ ^1 ?) {& ?
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 }5 x. s, j' L+ S" o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! s" q3 V, s, e, Z" C
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 p. c: e  k  m9 x2 w: V" {
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
9 ^# R: p" L, v7 e! u! l The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 m* p9 Y) G, ]+ T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  a1 j. U2 E5 Q3 Y" f' @' G1 f, w. `impose liquidation values.
& ~0 V/ G; _7 I/ R In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 C  k3 ~5 c" C7 u. G+ i
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% s0 l/ p- E8 d* O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 x5 d# r9 E* `) s$ ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; g  B5 H& t6 H2 b. z- |4 |A look at credit markets
& Y8 J% v6 N' A Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 l6 L. U, R7 E& o9 v, z: W5 O6 FSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& G' z: `5 v8 F6 c+ Y2 U
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 ~- x! J; i4 @  L, y+ W( r6 `then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 q2 t3 q; _5 c" v  L7 xbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' G  R8 P) ]" _8 X6 oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 b7 `( V2 O: `/ Q3 G; D' P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& W; P& l0 p& H0 e: r
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 V6 w3 T$ e- d+ i  W4 u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, E" M9 U4 G8 V* |
finding financing.
5 H) h5 j9 }; `1 V) O/ x1 O. j Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: b7 C; t2 U9 J$ [3 u5 w$ q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 s! B- Z( J+ F0 n0 Q6 Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 ^- J7 g5 Q" \, K; k( Fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# z1 L: i5 s' ]0 h5 i& K' v, k
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 z1 T& _$ t9 e5 p- L, ?bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 m  Z% |  A3 l$ Q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" H: a$ b- p2 B: y+ h
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' Q  t9 E* d* U5 {" T. O: X8 E
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, L$ I0 P! Z5 \$ T4 cthe Greek default.
2 m1 i+ [- l$ U: m- \: Q% L2 ~ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 k) ]! p, {0 h  ]* R1 z, _1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 k. _# d5 ~/ D3 X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* M5 b4 }! S8 K7 _2 L; ^debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 o) Y3 z4 j* W" y5 g9 K
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: f9 n- [/ \8 X2 U4 F
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 x, u+ m. ^1 e; }4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) F2 Q0 h5 _( B# E! @& R& Y
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Beyond Greece
: t" J3 k1 N5 ], f1 s  \3 L* B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
9 i" v$ d1 Q) Y% U7 ^, Ubut that was before Italy.
. k' y3 h) L/ ^- m It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( ^4 @3 f6 m3 b' \' b8 }  F7 \ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the6 z9 y, n) M& y# ]' B2 ?! o1 @
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion6 j$ u7 Q, p, u& P  w  ^, ]
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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