 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation6 e% [5 ~1 t( h( U) n0 Y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ }) n+ k! M2 {2 [
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" E4 D$ `3 _1 z) l0 ?
impose liquidation values.& {+ ~; J$ |1 t$ e6 u
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" S: X0 o) ^' \8 D7 o! r
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' j- U# M! P" n( O& U- K9 p+ S The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ o( G5 _ k- `4 f* p8 h6 Ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 d- G0 c L0 D2 `( h9 M
& W7 @3 `9 V% y- i2 D: `
A look at credit markets
0 @1 |8 F/ W u: n3 H( L( \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in I4 | ~6 P- i# V# {: s. j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 u# w8 n$ J- j$ r& ?" ]6 V High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. j" n. g$ N4 [: _1 A" i# d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( Z% C- E* {8 E$ k5 |- G( ]billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 T4 u. |) B$ `4 H1 f) Q( G d+ H9 k7 K; T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 q; R9 g; [0 O. h; t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- b( d6 G* \1 Q5 n$ j3 H. v
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 k& a' Y9 y B7 g x
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% v& ?2 S, s' Y* s* Wfinding financing.
3 R9 M7 r, a- m" C6 x' N/ g A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, Y& d: ^0 n' {5 ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 r1 T6 x* }4 ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 ^; m5 n! d/ t" h. b$ ^is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 |& P+ {' ]5 }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 F( {) f. l5 p& t' y3 \( ]% D+ C
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 G$ |) L4 q$ A European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, T. N( q0 u& \& U/ k& T
today.$ x( {/ {7 u3 d! ?( o
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& B0 W" a) E4 C9 ^emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|