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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% u% |" L  D& L/ q
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Market Commentary
2 _+ I4 T/ ?0 l# SEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! L% |$ z" _  r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
5 c; V1 ?, i8 T7 A1 HSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks$ z  p- N3 E' a4 W
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ ]: K, L+ T3 f' g  d
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 n2 @6 K. Y7 p) f% w* Y
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( e! ?8 ?: H/ ]( D. D0 [adjustments.; l/ _: V# V2 X  v
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" d" A% L. E! [( V4 d: H% c; ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 h( ~0 R1 ]3 V6 @: ] Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% ^* I( f! B& A, j: `
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
0 z. d! V. M2 B6 N We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, j; d% K& p2 @, O8 n- qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( u/ Q2 G9 I- `, J: z: c2 A+ s Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 t1 R' q1 p* ?# q- f
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: F% g6 K+ s5 c7 A( w8 J# I2 ~ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, U* n( C6 o1 z) ~9 b Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; o! }8 ^, z6 ^/ A7 j% k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) g9 ~" X/ p% S' P5 W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 t0 G  `& Z; A/ |5 m" `" u3 Tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 q; Y) n: n& v5 l" v$ h
impose liquidation values.3 J; F0 t" |$ h4 U- ]( T
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In* T" N$ D2 o% ?2 @. T* k' w0 Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 Z0 b. v) T7 X- n6 ]0 U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" Q# s6 h& B( b& W. Z/ iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. a2 e' Y5 Q) XA look at credit markets, v, ]1 {' r& ]. ?7 T  E. L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; i. r+ P/ a! J0 D/ VSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# G- g# l! S' e2 O! L3 s+ U
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* Q. K) t4 q# f3 bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) h' t7 F4 _) e9 {3 Q) `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  k4 G1 w) f3 J  l) ?+ Jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! |8 L4 y4 E2 Y! _CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 E& w) w; i- X: ~' o/ z$ Epositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( j$ S# _+ W0 j5 k" j' B
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! [+ ~' s$ z! R2 R- l5 ?$ f
finding financing.
. R  W0 p1 q2 \# p0 b$ T# c Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 _7 D/ \! f# M1 b% \4 }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& }* }$ U0 G" u$ I; s" P3 j  y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- r4 o$ X/ r6 I, l4 m, ^" V% y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ `& D' h2 B  u. S" M& X4 X8 x$ a! i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 V, z$ k6 D6 H. D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ p7 l5 Q" m# B* B8 {7 Y8 ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 J# u9 E4 o; }today.
& ^* Q; j$ m5 F$ Z& O8 M) S1 j3 N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 C/ h, g) ?& h- [6 d) x' c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
; }# J9 L+ J. c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 }/ c7 d4 ?2 h6 ~the Greek default.* [- ~  h. q1 Y! P' S" J( }
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 K) ?5 l# W  e( O
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 T' G' ^& _% a4 s2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
( {3 o# B6 |8 J  R; ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( `( w, x" p$ n. }: K+ y" ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( n# Z+ C; e2 e! H. |- ^4 m1 Obanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- H7 S4 V$ N. T' Q6 G: Z4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 i# a/ F# {$ C5 u6 I/ J/ b- u
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Beyond Greece
9 k( ]+ V2 {/ L4 t4 r! ]7 P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( v& _& O9 R, G5 f) vbut that was before Italy.9 T: S1 N# p  V3 h0 ~; ~1 Y( h
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) \3 c* A5 S, S; T7 j  B  P( f It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 D, e. ]! \  Y8 TItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
  k6 [& S! O" y7 H9 N  Z% v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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