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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
5 `  V, e: n+ L# F
; g2 e) M' s0 HMarket Commentary; p5 \, L+ ~% X& N- k3 o
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 H3 e) i- b4 Y3 f( P
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 V! ~, s: s6 b' E, I$ ^7 {
Signature Global Advisors5 g9 c  p5 c; N2 l

- w1 b8 x4 m2 V. }1 @% z7 S% Z5 O. {: h  j
Background remarks
( x" o% [  V% `) }5 g Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 J" O) ~  ~2 r) F7 H" tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! {) V# y, {7 S( q8 @ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ X( c; \, ?& S% l4 c0 [) t! W1 cadjustments.
2 L# ]7 v2 N1 x% x) R" p' }/ S" b This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 w4 B6 e6 Y$ Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ d' z2 |! V- d* }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: I- N2 O3 w; w9 U4 P. Y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) `! E% @6 j4 S/ f5 x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 a, x# F! D% T' i8 ~& Padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" I) y7 G9 c# W. ?* K Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% ?5 r& Q3 V% {  B- ^( R7 e+ ^
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ t7 W& I; C/ Y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 R, v0 b9 ]/ p! n7 g
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' p- l- o3 w; @6 S+ R( Oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 O9 b7 x5 \: ^4 R6 w. u
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 i: Z. l3 E7 C. l1 `  G
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 B, t( [: i1 p1 z0 d
impose liquidation values.
* k6 G0 g' p" u. D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: J+ G4 h- A: F; U) QAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 q+ y: S/ F8 @8 T# i2 f The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! Q" i7 S/ \" L' A( b
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 v$ n0 ^- C% f6 |, A2 F% ?$ `' P9 j; ]& m( q& i& D
A look at credit markets% V3 m( I' X& u0 g$ R+ a1 C6 p# A2 r
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: @( K7 |' d) hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." E/ N) y& s0 F8 e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 h  b0 ^5 f5 a% k( r2 H
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 J$ E2 L1 |5 G7 _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ C& n8 v4 H5 P( p0 f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: i+ O+ ]. L/ W3 bCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) C% d8 K% T( d3 K/ h
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 Q7 I. Q5 T3 S% H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! w1 I* U( j6 N: C9 [& r1 K( Pfinding financing.
5 P' U0 X5 D, M# ^9 g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 C, a: ^$ Q5 l3 s' J- O" H: pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# o1 {$ ]) I" B) |$ m0 n+ T
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 `4 z2 |0 H0 e5 _$ n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, T# q" W& n+ b1 q( t) Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. S7 |. D+ d! Tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- |, D: _" K( R. _; M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" z) ^- r4 \  ^6 `  l: `/ ptoday.
) Z5 f8 J2 x) ^! j1 ]; }$ e Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ X$ t- A: _( Aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ A3 I3 o9 r$ J2 X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: k, ~+ s+ O2 O& {the Greek default.* \7 L1 ?9 M* B, F7 I- J
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 F3 k6 ^" @8 p1 D/ ]" d3 v1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. e8 z. z9 I( f8 c2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* O- n# u% J7 k7 X! p9 Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 ?& G: l6 P% S7 h- `
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% k' I5 V1 k' K- u3 wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 q9 d/ E  n6 ?7 F( [/ X4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 a4 t+ S1 I# X) i6 Y& i
7 a5 E; B5 q' q* b8 a
Beyond Greece
2 V# \: o% g  _( K  Y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 G: s, d$ q# `. B8 q, d; o) y, ^! Qbut that was before Italy.4 M1 j0 b' o' Z3 E! J7 @4 g
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 L1 D: g& v0 {# g! d0 p8 P5 {& Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
0 Z5 @" \, ^" F- LItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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3 y% K6 m( X* q& DConclusion- {6 X. B% ^4 S1 F/ Q7 N8 n- S3 |
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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