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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation* @6 a" L9 ^) `- H: ?& Y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' c e- V$ o7 ~" _
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 B8 [. G$ ?) P
impose liquidation values.! \) ?( R( [, |( V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& R/ s7 e' N( @" R! ?% BAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 ?0 l9 O7 c$ e3 \/ t: ~ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 o. v# ^6 p3 h! l7 xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
2 ?, `; h5 b& N' f8 y* `7 b
# R" y. Q$ t* M f3 mA look at credit markets
4 G0 P2 V& }- r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 H/ Q [6 r' ?( dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, r' D7 S0 `4 m" {$ U High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- k# M) ]; h* t5 D
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ @0 X5 d3 R+ ]0 ]4 a k5 G2 ?2 i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ T7 [4 a9 s+ [$ s7 |2 k: L. p! A2 t7 L2 uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 Q( o4 z+ Z) g6 P4 }9 J3 YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 O- g( Z' U4 U; i# k j2 T+ {5 j3 qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 q6 n$ @4 p+ ~; m, k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% v' {1 f0 V$ K8 z6 ffinding financing.# E+ S& D; `3 W
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& G8 g1 w1 x( \$ O# \4 nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! i* n1 c! o% G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 P8 ]/ s2 ^, v) D
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% k, a" {" ^- v4 Vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. K+ ]0 q* X) J' m7 W. H7 f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& ]4 d3 o, g/ z* M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 l U7 X- d( ?3 |# E }$ i: f
today.
. P1 v0 [$ l$ `( ~" X5 l+ y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 y6 Y; w. U( x3 Nemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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