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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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9 k- f9 f# M: E6 {* |8 P- s! SMarket Commentary
" d" L, H1 ~' Y9 g; D7 K/ `! s9 V. cEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' _6 A) N* ^5 U
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. X5 s. [+ c- U# ]8 v3 H
Signature Global Advisors: g" K$ u9 R  e; U

& T+ L- d' ~: D( s4 Y+ y/ ~! N; k6 r% {) K, M. e' V$ E
Background remarks
" c7 A& R' D# o! s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ `0 \; Q' m+ a" ?2 \; M, E3 zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 ~3 E/ L$ P4 |; q$ i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% W5 Q! r; d1 S) Q# m
adjustments.
( g3 k4 B$ r( g( | This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. @, R" S2 o# lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! U% e+ `; f, Q- d& }6 _
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 c3 v! }# J9 m, Nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* i5 d& D' u- }3 | We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. j% Z$ [: P8 Z5 `; Kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& l) N$ Z9 c; P, X6 R$ @( v& e Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 D' M- \2 E9 O8 y" ^quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  X" Z4 ^4 `6 f7 n. C8 o
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 A8 d. {8 w5 O Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 }! R4 O4 e$ v, R6 a, m% @reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
9 N: K5 |" V5 K/ a. h7 v' n# } The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 `4 ~8 J: d" l2 T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, l% @8 b7 ]7 B
impose liquidation values.# |  m2 K3 M, E% Y0 t, y" [" Z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 m; @6 H7 X% P% u* t; C- nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 T3 `' W! w: A7 i+ B
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" i& Y; d- G; k' M$ K' \6 cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' W- L& p) j! j5 @; T1 r
& G2 F* ]' A; d1 S. J) ?
A look at credit markets7 s& r4 a& I; a% u7 _6 M$ D
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 m1 k% g; `' N5 v* vSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- j" t3 i1 H5 r
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; w% N. `8 S6 n9 t$ w  s9 N! Qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. U: X2 u1 s) p( U8 l+ _" abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 ?- r% U0 Q1 i- s1 @
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 x4 C! f% ]# h, K2 i9 v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 C$ {2 x0 m4 O4 A& [* @$ F
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% [( J2 g- l3 o: U. u+ W( q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; M! I  S* R9 Ufinding financing.
6 x2 z) h% u+ y) m3 y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 o" s% i: O0 L: J, e1 A: |' lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 H* k5 E5 _: |1 Z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) ?% X0 |: W" p- n: G( D
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ u% C/ f6 K$ i( n& ~
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- X0 E- e" `" R9 obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. D8 c; l2 X/ T- z( w- Q; y) B2 a+ T European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 \( L# |1 a7 X! L2 w+ D
today.8 w. M2 e8 u; J. h+ Z  D6 f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" d5 ~( L5 y/ h9 [
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 J8 w$ a7 C8 ? Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. J" l, w* ~  `8 tthe Greek default.; y6 M) `( i4 D* I& V
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 U2 h8 I0 K+ o1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default# V" E0 P) e) H$ f0 g9 i6 ^
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: B( n6 S2 h; V5 T: @& V& adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ A" K  K5 O% u& ^! v. X3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing" m. Y0 t7 \# A! u1 A
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& T/ v2 ?" z4 f
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  Z6 i8 _/ A. T  T) N
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Beyond Greece
3 y1 R# c) B5 h The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 ~8 Q0 A, F$ ?  z# L
but that was before Italy.
/ C: Q8 ]5 y9 A0 [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 G. {8 @$ {% \) L/ D It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" N7 Y& f- F( W) u; ]( {- {$ lItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further." p9 S- _. @( I7 S# d

$ J8 B1 O$ e4 E, i# v# H1 bConclusion) r, {& ^6 B6 H  \' K9 f
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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