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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 T+ S1 b5 s" \) G- x6 @$ IMarket Commentary6 ^: c/ j5 z/ n. V7 Q) ^* A1 ?
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 W. n+ i. s1 X$ l& [9 S! X
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 l! Z+ ?3 B3 D8 ^- A# r! @Signature Global Advisors
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- U6 C/ f) k+ `% p. U( y4 L& v# eBackground remarks
: j8 M% d7 T: w' k& x Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are7 P& [( D  y9 a9 |8 r$ {4 D/ G; @
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& ~  d9 l# j4 E9 L* y: T8 ` Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; f; C1 D1 U1 C" ?1 S( Q! l. {5 ~( Cadjustments.
" S! w+ V6 ^: @( P, ~2 @) D$ i% A This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 G" J* O$ o+ K! Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ P3 ?" F* m7 ?  F5 A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 L1 N- K* d8 @& V- olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ d$ R- G' y/ V+ }* I# a; }
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( X5 t( b+ e4 X6 R6 o; R6 L4 I' b
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' J+ E7 D7 |' g7 j Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* w% N" `$ o4 ?3 a/ m. Iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# j0 m8 R; v; R4 m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ J. d2 Z: l5 L/ q. [2 G6 F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 _9 _( y# ]2 W4 l
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  I3 n# `# v7 q/ s
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
3 ]" T% N8 m( t5 o% N: j2 J9 Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 q# l9 t. l/ k8 v4 }impose liquidation values.
5 f% s0 k# {2 Z/ n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 M( i3 k0 M% P3 I+ u7 nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, D# ?& o* f3 I, C The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ d! U3 C' }  K
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets9 |/ R, p4 ^# u% j* x
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: w+ d; n, z8 B# c8 e& P* Y. N0 H& x
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.3 \" L$ w0 z% ^( U8 }% H1 g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" N+ a: P3 h1 j, y& R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  I0 I# j8 y) L3 G3 _7 mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( z& L# Z5 i9 ]3 v* Kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 {5 }+ R5 Q8 B0 ?4 w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) ?  E& l2 d' |% Z6 ~$ S! wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# x! P; S: Y& p  {" n/ B8 M! r Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 ?  a+ p/ q5 G0 Dfinding financing.' o5 j( r8 Y7 S/ I) Q( A0 j
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 \$ q9 \- q8 I  }! Lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 B  n; n0 |% ]3 W
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  O( o9 r% N( kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) X  B6 z2 M# S+ Agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: H5 D+ i$ g% f) x$ Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- Q* u: {7 j0 [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 _6 j  o% m$ q& M* p! i4 ptoday.  U* Y& s& l2 I0 r* Y  H" t5 L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* x( ]! b2 n- C7 r/ ?emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  Y0 ~5 @  Z) s; J2 z4 j Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, v3 P8 j9 X; k+ _- G) v
the Greek default.
) q( G  `% V) J As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 r7 e; P% m6 J3 j% s1 Q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 h  `  `6 F6 W1 L# E2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 |4 z+ x: `# v" M/ x0 w0 n
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 ]8 d* ~7 Z# e3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 l5 g$ i' t& m% F' m5 z, ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, Z" {. w9 v9 d( [4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece+ j* I3 V$ c. |
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
4 a. C8 Q1 D' Z; T' s) a# u2 Q$ G' ibut that was before Italy., }' A8 o: S' ^% c# M
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 l# C7 O9 K% ^4 Z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
0 j  X5 S9 f+ L7 X4 d* lItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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. f/ ]1 d7 n6 O# zConclusion
' b) Q+ i) X" d# q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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