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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary9 o6 i, V) M6 r5 N: b0 t
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# i0 M' f, f: h* W8 v; [# h
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" a& a! Y5 f5 y. D% F% }Signature Global Advisors  b* O9 W4 n3 E  A( F
8 |# r) s1 _8 r

& Y" z2 a5 r1 \8 }0 I2 GBackground remarks, J) R& Y1 b) a% q2 o. h
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" B( N7 m8 \5 Q. }! ~9 ]6 @as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
1 N  n" J$ A- |4 i( _2 l2 F1 W Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ v  y% J$ o* w6 W: r$ \, v- gadjustments.
- z7 s& L4 A5 w8 @  h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& O) V0 K' }, o3 S* U" ^( ^
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., c; f7 `2 H7 y) r- s
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. g/ U- @. A5 X8 N! H: z4 |lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 D, o2 L  ~5 W
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" U- v6 O' |5 u, qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 ^6 @% H+ @+ x1 m3 p Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 F4 }1 W. Y3 @% _% N, R
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." g- ]1 @) c8 `9 _, ]2 O
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., [* f4 v" m) Q- d  _
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 S7 H+ g$ n" t3 \& s2 q  Y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ u: L6 O- a! \3 e( `  z2 E5 G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 ]# @8 D/ L0 e) k
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 L2 r% e1 l. h8 T) J, |
impose liquidation values.$ N( y2 ?' s6 g$ z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 u  L9 y- J3 \7 w& t. @
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 t) o9 D! O4 q% C  Y4 z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 S) X4 w1 x/ ^' q2 h1 j( v+ y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* {% H5 m# w8 F  n( l$ v

: I' b! f+ l6 @/ ~6 gA look at credit markets- q" K" C+ @. L9 a5 n
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 W& ?7 i% B1 K: DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 v7 ?! g' o) w4 }9 H3 f, z, i+ _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% B1 s. P% i) K% _; U' Dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' O& k8 A! G( x! n9 c2 }billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) G8 |/ p; U  M& o
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 d5 F( e7 a* YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( m2 N" f& |8 i/ D+ u% [3 L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' d$ H8 A6 Q5 H: `" U/ @2 b, n
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 o1 o% q' r4 d8 v& [9 k: i4 e
finding financing.
5 t' Z2 ^0 K+ f! H6 P$ ~' J Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, X6 r9 p9 J9 e. i3 n. Owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% T4 X! K8 T" p2 K9 S- Z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, O/ C0 t# b6 S- N6 s5 b( cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 G: y6 z- m% u7 v/ F5 m( Sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. h/ j; D- J5 C) tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% k! q% Q6 K! c8 p0 D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 ^4 K8 m4 |: `: u
today.4 ~& R. f3 J' ~  G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 F+ n1 Z/ [" t% [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) }5 l+ F; y$ [$ {( [/ `" a
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  D! O& b% C& D& m7 j8 l) Bthe Greek default.) }' c/ a$ `9 i
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' R* {8 `, [7 U* `& L1 J1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default# l9 K0 Z9 K  K0 |
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 F& t6 _1 U! @4 r& c' idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ }4 s1 z* K* l4 s7 E. L
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing, y+ n* S: Y. P) n8 u7 H
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, @( r; O: h* e' \$ X
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 K" _4 r- z: \  n5 N4 D( H! @

9 m2 |9 o7 E6 KBeyond Greece6 n5 M8 [2 e1 N+ a
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' p' p6 n8 g" @" @1 E1 E6 Zbut that was before Italy.
, E- ^+ P4 n1 L6 v+ C It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.5 A5 }0 G, V2 Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- i3 F: ^. R) s& u) i+ g" e, kItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
4 P% c* C1 e; y8 H  B% b( F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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