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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
0 E/ S8 ?5 {2 e1 V A. E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 G; n+ L% m# E, X4 |+ aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; V: d6 ]" @6 X( b I! F
impose liquidation values.
5 M4 u" K+ D+ I; n X+ t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& _$ ? }1 G# h9 I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 i6 r8 j/ ]2 x1 Q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* P! r r: e; p; { _3 {scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 ^* D1 V2 p9 z3 q7 pA look at credit markets
, f. X" f1 ~# j+ S! a! x/ p7 L O2 H Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 Y- p: V7 w0 E0 T2 p$ sSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% K/ P4 u& `9 T5 u4 ]: c- o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! ~+ S0 j2 L& @7 v; k* d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, z5 \2 G' C: u* v1 ]8 ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 m; O) C' X" s, c' j
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 g$ z- f. @* W! L3 j$ q( R7 U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 l) j0 g4 v3 m0 M5 o' p7 @ f' Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# j2 x+ ^% g& ^5 Y* S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! f$ w @4 {3 T/ L+ k
finding financing.
2 g/ X9 S# Z2 f9 O) x# h Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! B0 o5 @3 d+ e; V* ]) N- Q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) T% e* o' F% J* U6 u ]" Z% i2 I8 w Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 k! z2 s1 _* v3 l9 k }' l2 F0 Qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 y, R8 s. c6 H1 I: v2 X5 F* d
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" L* m6 @' d- T. g+ J( T( V9 ?
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 h0 I) I5 }# S2 t4 l6 g2 E
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 ^& r2 R( B2 z3 R9 ]
today.9 \" \' y. r. {; `
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" M! r& j6 {7 Q' q2 g% Q7 e6 b: L
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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