市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

9 B0 D- }9 L0 k  ^Market Commentary
8 Q+ H2 F  z8 s6 Z$ L5 VEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: b2 m0 A( B2 [" O: c4 _5 T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# C4 y8 u1 Z/ Q% t: l/ [+ Vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* P4 b1 g) e; t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 {1 r3 I' o" F2 l" D0 g- }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" n5 a/ l# ?/ e1 \/ r. d# d7 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 j3 W5 ~0 `9 {  K, \; U. z' V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" v: J5 n: V+ d  U6 R! ?3 O* J, Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- e/ e9 K' \  f' ~6 X: `impose liquidation values.
- v. w) L9 n! M  N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 }1 Z- t0 d# B  N$ Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
! v' c, b" I4 _' R$ g% R0 c& A! T$ \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 w0 n$ Z" C, v; o$ OSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 |- A0 p' V* c9 A/ f& N7 g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% m$ K. t6 N8 X3 G) F, Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% H. b. ~" t0 [5 P2 v4 a" Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 ~: c) O0 f1 b9 t; t) `+ MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: {% g% |8 X2 m6 gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  o' G3 u  X, x  x$ cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; j, L7 _. j1 A* W* o8 c" t Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 P) ~/ L9 v: t/ I" W2 F# Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 C3 d/ i. G+ M% Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) `" i# u6 l/ _* T* b# r. J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
) {  y. j' b. j9 s( g; v Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 A/ K; i7 o4 r. G3 wthe Greek default.
4 n2 ^$ x8 i" F& }# i/ o( t As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 h) ]  d5 y0 S  Q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 m" J% w' \# ~- X5 P' i+ K3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

1 Q' d: z: q5 S4 N' f7 c" g! [+ oBeyond Greece
2 e7 \) N* ^& N  O( c The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) }" i1 J0 \% s: |but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- L/ j4 ]$ J: A% L. j It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% w$ {! l& l  l8 NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
2 W) T; H6 [# A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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