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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ K4 k$ Z' o0 A% J7 k( p

4 _5 o* \. t) b# GMarket Commentary* V4 f& E! }5 K. Y  k& U1 C  N5 B
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# T6 ?- ]8 B# e. T1 SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& x3 ~) {! U' fSignature Global Advisors' |; G! W* K+ N% h) ?
$ L, S+ W' K- i3 c& J

, V% Q/ V; G2 R4 G2 KBackground remarks
0 [+ C  D3 \! K8 f/ g" l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 b' g* ^& x6 jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 c  Y$ n- @4 E" T2 w
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 u4 c! V$ p8 j$ y& F3 W% [6 Jadjustments.8 ]6 p" ?  q1 w  ?
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ d; g- ~0 A1 Esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 z; m9 w0 S; R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 f. ]: ^7 x( X$ n( flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% |0 R; y5 h( h6 B% ]( m1 U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these/ m0 R! [; s: }$ d
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 Y2 k. V5 ?4 x" Z/ i5 e; w1 [
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; Q( w  C$ ]# |9 t( K0 qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  L) w- v; ?5 y5 a; @$ H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 D% ?. m) U7 e/ a( |* P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, M4 `9 A, t8 u7 U" G; ]0 breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 Q4 w. U' O- h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( C1 T6 D9 Z% s( Q! ]: N+ v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% s& ^8 \- C2 y) l9 j4 |
impose liquidation values.
8 C2 _; y; g% R# ?( B' j( ] In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: @- b% a7 D4 S# N$ x) d5 P* z8 A# xAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., X  v0 H+ R  V, ]$ p  D
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% d( L. Y5 R) i8 }+ J: i' D$ C
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
  R0 u/ N1 a" f, g
5 X9 _+ v% O8 h! Y, iA look at credit markets9 a+ k- _- ?) U4 u& p  }& r8 V
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" H  ^, |* ^% y0 i# P+ h" X3 W% D/ t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! J* N$ E/ E5 H9 t8 c1 Z, L
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 @# \+ B% N+ }; ]9 e1 P
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, K$ w; p, |; V! I; h7 U2 G
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, a5 l- B9 T' N# z$ j0 w  L
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 i9 F% G! Q2 s6 U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 i7 T2 ^# |) w7 W6 [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( ?3 |* X& ?* b Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 X  X4 K1 u" c2 P6 Z
finding financing.
3 G: {# t8 u2 E; `3 k, @  i: { Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# H/ E. O0 U# B7 t0 M
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* C  j3 P: V& _0 K4 h
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* E! w( |$ i: ^3 X7 z: uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" J2 {8 Y4 z$ F8 T2 ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ o$ |# v/ g) i8 k# @: Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 u- r8 O) L% D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 ~5 m! Z$ @. i! D9 z8 j- J% p
today.9 q% G* O9 L+ g' C" u" \. Z: q0 B
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( @: G8 K( M# t1 W% ]9 I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- \% t9 b/ \4 }/ V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ i& U+ z' O  t1 P: gthe Greek default.
7 _. Z+ i, q4 K, C' e7 T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: N2 Q# Y, y" s2 h& _1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 V. N' @$ ]% O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 P% o$ m8 U7 D& b$ a8 ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ y. E7 S5 P* A1 X, I6 P% L* n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ F8 u" h# C1 q! Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 E4 K+ U, V3 [1 f, z8 B4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
- T9 I, \. A2 Y6 S" K( S( R6 `# u% C4 C# h( i' Q
Beyond Greece
' w; S& C2 Q: h* x, E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ s- ?4 H* ~; T' Zbut that was before Italy.) Y# I# X) j7 y4 @
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: ^! ~) q. }/ K' B5 r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! f# X7 f) `4 U4 N, J7 q9 M6 p! ^Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  N5 Q, ~6 q" \/ O8 V5 l

( ]) s4 c1 y* M& ?- H2 Y1 O+ i  ]Conclusion
7 v- J: F! r( I+ r% P+ X9 c' L2 K We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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