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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation3 R+ \8 P) @; z/ l) k
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" `6 }, A% ^$ h) {
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ X4 E" q2 O }9 i$ }impose liquidation values.; u% l# D2 Z- W- M
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ L0 I: S: b7 T0 C; I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; ~& c) I1 T+ ]9 _, ]# ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 z+ B, A2 |3 @! hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% m8 D# D* }# v
3 |6 X8 L% s& i6 G. P* A, UA look at credit markets- o1 m# \4 P6 |$ D4 u
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 u f9 l" q' k+ W' n' USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. K1 W6 W2 c& c# g' V3 b. e High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; i* v# X# ]5 _: `7 Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $13 v! G% ?4 }4 n4 E/ a! W2 v: w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 `7 ^2 J1 j9 P' c3 a$ }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ U8 O8 p" g0 J$ `5 G- `# s: WCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: O0 ^) x" ^' e7 ?% Z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* n- B: E# N4 i5 b6 N6 f8 k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, f% w5 W8 i) {! v$ `3 O
finding financing., F n' K( u& c$ h2 c6 V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ K( ^! f/ t; {* s- s
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: A. V; o- `3 A# c! [3 U Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. F3 }: E$ S+ L5 W$ Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& {& I3 K; J6 H, T- j" I* ]
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# f0 C+ ~# E! @+ T5 w% k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 Q; i2 U/ Y9 a( t [, Z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ K6 J$ y& U2 _+ Z6 \, Q9 z+ Z1 a2 \today.
% ], g4 Z' S/ z1 f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ `* u' R% B P9 N7 \
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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