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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation" y! {3 h( y& y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 e% f# V2 ]: M5 ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( V. o' q i$ C. Limpose liquidation values.
$ [8 G! _5 y0 S p6 Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. @9 m* V4 Q/ L% F" x
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- `8 W+ B6 F" D0 U. Q, r# I& W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 i3 B1 ]1 k* i! L; b+ V' z6 e
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., E5 a7 G5 B4 }# i6 g/ w
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A look at credit markets
3 Y, a$ g% v" y# G; H$ }' L2 d4 o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ d& _- V. }# ]! ]
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 ^) s# I' C; T* S7 j! y' g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ @5 J2 |$ S1 G' Y, g$ h
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 Y, A! N) T1 ^ ?
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 `0 Z1 M( a* _% h! Z2 E3 waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. l2 A, g. B _* K( ZCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) M- S& [1 q9 A, dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield. L7 y D7 d- G4 R2 F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 D3 s' r) _* p, l, c1 S
finding financing.
2 G3 i9 N7 m% |' g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( k% a1 |% h! B$ g6 G
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" t. ? U# N( r) P, ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ r( s& }2 `! H/ F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; v" @6 U; c, f$ T& \& N" A
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 e E4 R2 S" d; rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# Q# d3 R/ C! u8 E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- F0 k. F8 U ^: g# F4 \
today.% n7 ~% X9 y8 j; C
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 q, }1 h' Y6 Q" m Memerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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