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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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! Z. Q4 A/ r) T0 F) uMarket Commentary" K% i3 Y0 U. Q* F& t* u1 t7 w
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* R, \+ q8 \7 H. n% s' Q9 rJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# a+ o. P6 c* H8 l! ~. h" xSignature Global Advisors5 _5 u0 Y7 q  r$ Y
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Background remarks/ P# ?6 D1 D  ^
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 h* j: E3 T1 H  S; nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.: U& E: @3 _. I3 p) O, ~
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
1 h7 c! g6 s+ ?6 o7 P- Oadjustments.8 M7 x0 a& R$ _% Z* W3 n" v
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( d2 A0 m6 l# r/ b! F  a; {
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., P' m# H0 b) @* i( M$ E
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are# C- _& S. p2 D$ s! l. u
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ U/ u. p% a0 P! s# \
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 M& h1 v' V+ v. Gadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& l, k! w& n0 s) e1 e8 L
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; M3 B3 u1 X' _; `0 G* i2 l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! u' z0 F$ e) s, T Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& h% q+ G# {2 H& o6 C Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( r8 F7 K  u) I4 ~, V" Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' x% J1 H% x) B2 g9 o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, ~" t" R. [$ L: q4 T1 n
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  k5 z1 P* X( i6 ^) J
impose liquidation values.2 b( \7 Q; S" e9 ]4 Z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! ?" H2 s3 F8 W% `, m- A9 iAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- d1 _4 N, V2 X8 Y# S# z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. _. ?$ y$ x+ e# |5 Y5 Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ D0 O: g! u$ j4 v! n1 B6 S
# A7 G7 D. d" S: F: b
A look at credit markets
3 t5 O9 P) W% a& X7 s- o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 C2 l5 r! l# m, L$ M" k9 ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) Z3 X+ A" C, Z( \0 { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) j5 r' Q( U, E8 ?, A, gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 q; f2 k  M3 m* abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: w9 u) T4 f, X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 S5 V. b6 a" C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ y8 W( P$ q5 E5 i1 {positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 s2 W: _# J5 h5 ^9 W% h Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: B; p) {, i2 f. R( Afinding financing.
- J4 s/ G. @* w/ h Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 u2 S  k' S/ a5 I
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: [/ \) b- D, b
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
) b6 Z1 _) E8 D4 {4 a! Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- B5 q+ Z- |% ^5 M$ q% A6 [* @, _going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; _! [2 g4 S( f4 |+ `bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( j  V' p& n0 D/ _4 p2 }+ B1 J. N, o European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( D; I. ?& ]6 U2 U1 e3 Y
today.5 Y# Y3 j: \7 Y. n
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# b; A  j. |; \- g9 Qemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 S5 |, c: f- ~* `0 s
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# t% A# l/ M% N" L6 G0 U. I6 k# U
the Greek default.
4 V( Q$ J; R2 D( Q# x4 E& f As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* y/ t$ v8 I/ W, v8 ?1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 G! B( P1 |# t& \  M7 A# @' o
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 s8 \1 h- ?- S& P9 vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.) A+ m1 `6 k3 t& w' F
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" `4 G' E# c8 E: zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% j; |! b; A& O' v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
6 Q0 g7 g; b# x+ F: w The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
7 P- O& R( l8 x0 M+ \but that was before Italy.0 |# h7 s$ l8 O5 U* L0 _( w
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; [# Q1 W* |# p# ]" e3 e% {5 u6 b It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% D! [6 v, P" @! e) U4 }Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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! x. O+ [- M% t* D0 `2 [Conclusion* G! C7 p% Z: I8 I2 ]
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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