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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 A* Q2 n; @8 g+ E  p

  ~' f$ s. e$ u+ O1 U2 S3 yMarket Commentary1 B6 R% a- |# o+ @
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% t) Q( a: o& g) Q/ m* w, x
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% `5 z/ j& N$ ]# ^) h, V. sSignature Global Advisors4 \/ r3 K- t( ?2 {
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+ Z; M  N$ |' D. Q) M' _8 i
Background remarks
- X5 o: C* M8 F! K. L/ a Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 b  d7 i/ _1 Z( c; K7 l6 \* u
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: K8 `! Y7 y" e4 F Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* j" N8 }- P1 S) U, R
adjustments.: b. N6 m- q' p7 S( K) ]
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: B4 g2 p2 }4 f+ C. ]3 x1 p- I
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% c# l, ]" p( `- N2 w# R% O Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  o/ m7 R, @' l2 f; @/ k4 b# q! y# Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* |% g2 d$ g( e1 ~& M We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) A: L; \3 [8 P. l. h2 |# radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- I# l1 \, l9 o: c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. p; i7 J( W. J$ n* S5 z( Q' }2 [
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' U& m* v+ e3 e
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% `: I; Q2 x2 @8 E% |" ? Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 K0 G  ~6 {6 ?1 e
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 _2 b1 E1 g4 }1 v, @! o' R The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. F' N+ E$ l& E) q: }
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' s/ X+ W6 q5 n% L% J
impose liquidation values.. J" X4 w5 g( C' [
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# W" _* W: p7 P6 gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 I% \3 w8 O7 H! _5 n* M$ U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. d( M2 b! G6 K0 a" lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 R: n; k5 t6 N% T& S2 [2 w
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A look at credit markets
0 L6 e) D! o6 K! b) Y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# {. @' S  x4 W3 q1 I2 cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ k/ u- j0 z. F: e" Y7 C0 R5 S High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) {# r, c/ `/ q9 V) ]7 B8 p- B: R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: z2 j5 ?. n7 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; J1 ~+ p0 r( u& W3 H
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 V2 R+ u% h& b4 {! C0 m% x/ y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: Q$ w7 Y. o- q' F+ d
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! |5 {" `- T7 Y5 h; y3 \5 ]
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, c5 M( g0 A$ O: _! d; I& g0 N, X
finding financing.
9 E3 x. Z% ?8 P. R1 i6 ~. S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they" d: c* h9 c  w" I7 Z0 F
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ ^0 b1 H9 D3 a6 l# p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
) |4 s# @$ ^4 R$ ~! z' Q! Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! K  @0 J/ j$ S- i5 d9 B7 C( ?going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 |1 G, I7 o% g4 b8 f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." _/ b7 l  V7 `9 v9 }6 s
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- R2 q# f5 t2 ~5 i$ o% {today.5 g2 _( h' X) f! G+ ^  X
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  Q& |' U1 g$ u, Nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 D4 ?7 S6 f. k* S  u  d
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 I! w1 H" |4 X8 x7 c: d' lthe Greek default.' ]3 \! }) Z: R' k, l% d# p1 h$ R2 [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* T# g' V. ]9 }3 d* Z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ M% w% y7 |& [# I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, w1 t( s5 H, Ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.* p# `( I. U9 x1 G* M
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 x8 X2 J; h2 }/ Ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 R" G8 H! U* k5 J+ R' B4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece% Q; Q! `, ]& |
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),, G. v* V, f0 M9 }2 l
but that was before Italy.
5 H2 c/ |5 a8 A/ C# [: _/ N It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; r! e% k, C" U+ O$ [1 |7 L
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; @/ K% j. l$ v& E3 w& W- [! G' y: p0 MItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 c( z4 W4 Q0 f8 H5 t
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Conclusion: e! D, t2 G2 k( b, }
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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