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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
$ P* `& Q) U. h2 O9 [0 r. h+ h# q/ N
$ r/ u5 m$ i; X, pMarket Commentary
, |7 _7 t6 w2 y! o: L* {Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 k& R7 g  w+ L- h$ z' IJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 g, J9 w# k/ `2 W0 r4 }6 `! [
Signature Global Advisors
5 h2 G: c- U% F# z( K
1 K5 ]( b/ P, d9 l6 f! l
4 i0 l3 i, ?# u) M; g0 B. OBackground remarks+ B5 @# E$ b2 ]+ B: ]
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 M; r& X2 N6 S8 R8 ^4 Uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; R1 J) w3 z! X5 J7 k4 H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 A) m$ T6 k& K5 Wadjustments.
! a/ @' V" ?7 w3 b5 u This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ A4 Q) t3 @1 ]9 e/ R
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: U% _( u: z' C# g: j3 N4 r
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, I- s4 Y3 f0 C) Y. M, M2 C
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 V" H1 ^0 e' H, Q, t) V We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 r  p7 r5 Q& Z7 E/ N- ~" x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% Q9 G+ p. a6 S& n7 x; Z% n( R Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% B. M0 U+ ?- H! @* m9 H) a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: K& B/ H9 v2 l' o$ p/ I, {
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.4 b' ]2 s( P* u
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 H7 f6 @4 [' o2 X) O6 @1 s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ W( x& A% S3 n/ K/ g# o; N The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- m$ O7 q2 z' ]" y* v7 s
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' g& m4 ?9 u3 i+ wimpose liquidation values.
3 J0 H' F  x' v) F0 P* ?0 z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 S  h0 P. r6 j3 c6 g& |) o  RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" K  C: F$ Z. R# Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ c& ^7 o* B& \! ~  Uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* C. k. l, Q  K, k

$ l: C" J+ g6 D7 Z, BA look at credit markets: E5 n  u* X; v% @- n* d
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 x% S" i6 c6 n% w0 Y# ISeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ D- \: Q4 R" z" q8 y/ |' @
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ t- V) s! ]: Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 E/ y1 X/ ]7 v5 D% }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" j; _3 M. l" A- N$ _5 A0 O
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* H7 T: O4 m3 W2 g; g3 UCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% y, g9 K# t% G* Z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 i0 g" ?9 C. x! P7 N Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" l7 y; m: j' z) t( D- H" t
finding financing.; d- n6 R# y, W8 o/ K
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 \. o3 O& S& e4 X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., T& v3 Z+ v. a/ Z# E5 y0 g
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ {- _& {( R: X: z3 Fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ k  s, ?% R0 V" ?going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ J8 a. ~0 T% l& \- lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) B- a8 d; H, n1 R; { European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 @% t( Y8 w- E/ d; B( Ltoday.. p& H* q0 @! a1 u. ]" w3 a
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# ?* \( J" D7 [2 nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ f0 O0 Y7 Y) Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 S, d- a5 T$ h* v8 Y5 z+ M( I& @5 Nthe Greek default.
/ m2 }0 T+ x# k6 [8 ?- X7 o& X9 e2 w As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
# Q/ C6 c% R2 ?& v# i1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& v" e; X8 V- ~$ Q6 U0 I/ f2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 G$ `! F4 z3 H/ z: l
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 F% X! x- z# w3 ]2 y' H
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 P# r4 }' @* c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years4 g7 Z$ j, i" A- p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 ]; B* J' S' i) }( G- C6 d

/ \, m8 z* @: E/ `. yBeyond Greece7 y8 i: K, _' P( o2 a
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 v6 n- u! n  [  J( d7 D) ~
but that was before Italy.
3 x& a2 z! v( d. K5 l It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: b  U% R. i0 N. S1 {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; ]9 }# t& ^$ [8 h+ DItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.$ u. [7 b+ N0 N/ O7 G3 u
. r' }  [/ @* L4 v+ c
Conclusion) M6 ]' S, P) B9 }2 X
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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