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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& V/ k/ {# n" U) H* c% u

5 l3 g4 g0 `; |, ]) U& c4 ~( O* RMarket Commentary
# Q; `' G7 Q; K- r+ o, y4 i( W- DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% K6 u7 f# E) V0 lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) f8 v4 ], X0 F) U$ ?3 o- ?- `
Signature Global Advisors
6 [8 H, ~& |+ H, W. d6 v& V8 P' N/ e! l8 j* S5 m$ }) a& o; ~

  f4 _) x- L0 pBackground remarks  G. K8 \# Q0 A8 j
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% m4 t! p" A) H# ~: H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 f4 d% C9 |9 P5 O) G( A
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal$ s) \2 i2 J* g$ E1 ^: d0 X5 E
adjustments.
; V  ^2 k7 q2 f* M& m* r This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  `) ], E7 I, w, i9 X; Xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ c7 c/ N" K( q! H6 ~
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
+ B$ c; @5 G0 R  Ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- m8 v  K1 l" K/ n' I# c% P2 U) o1 R8 a
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( r8 L' W8 n; {) `
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 P' l$ D  [& r. u: o% `# |' D6 P
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 K* H7 a; \( w7 I$ r  d. W
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 y) i+ z9 H$ v, g. C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ D! h: u7 b: @% X7 g: E% E7 f% Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( H$ ^$ X# ^* E9 A- z7 R/ p: X
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 ^) T8 ?0 R! T* G$ R: g The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# T: r! a0 M2 ]$ zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* K1 D! V; N/ ~# N/ ?: s2 jimpose liquidation values.$ _2 _+ l0 W+ k4 B' X  q$ x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; i7 I. E9 K# _9 H8 d! p% t$ GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 n9 n3 I' I. N5 P6 x& U* j, _" L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: O% {- L. c& ~0 L2 Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 ^; K/ L) c* w! |; r6 t
  @: h0 ~. [' ]; {9 Q% E
A look at credit markets; t1 ?! G5 }3 U3 Q6 z8 X4 Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) P* J5 j7 l$ a2 k. ?8 y; E' {: c" NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% {% A( `& K* @  R: E  r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" |$ b# ]; o; s+ R/ G7 }
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 B: }0 d& D" q2 q! Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 Y9 ^8 }7 t. C# f5 h; d6 w
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade* X3 x3 E  Q* _$ _! W6 u
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 v) }" ?* |( M& D& S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" k& K* O$ M6 y$ |% n Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) [  @$ p, O3 t; Y% Y+ C: x6 U3 Ifinding financing.  _; H4 Y- s/ Y" G, O& f
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: x4 g2 J( ]5 n% ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 i0 `; N. @* @* i6 n Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 O0 N7 f' c# g1 {! Pis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 i% `, B5 W: X% o3 v) ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( k7 ]6 H3 r! O1 R2 Y* t& x7 Gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 g( ~* N7 n. o* u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 r4 ~* [0 G" c+ C* a1 S( j1 jtoday.
) z& ^# @/ i1 t+ A" V) M Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# w" I- ^2 z7 j) {. p" J. D
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 D, Z: K7 X* V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 ^2 }1 G6 X' A, Bthe Greek default.' i- w  \  \6 {! }, \7 G6 B
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. C6 Q4 u( k- m. D7 ~; f+ t  g4 R: N1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 B: _- w$ F! b% {% D2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! S- `: M* |1 }5 H/ Rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 X9 j: v9 ^. j! Y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- Y; h0 Q/ Y0 O% P' K0 Hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% {2 |4 S1 \" L5 A6 l4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
8 R& J9 I( M: a. c! M
1 {! F& ^, p9 E2 ?Beyond Greece
/ H, u  v. n  B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# Q( l6 B2 u: ?' l0 ?- g5 p
but that was before Italy.
# ]9 e0 g# P  N' v It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ P4 b7 O% j- `# i2 ]4 J# S9 e
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 z+ t. }6 j. f' _Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
! D- x- C" h* G6 ~! R7 L7 V- W, S) f: x) Z+ T
Conclusion
& X9 U" o) G2 b We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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