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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation: ^; l9 u1 t% ?$ J- [) C, ]+ N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& \9 |. s9 M- F7 A0 U& V: V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ \- R9 E+ K$ W2 v T6 Q2 ?
impose liquidation values.; T) f( {; C# J! V0 Y+ O" `
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% l7 o! f4 B* e9 O
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' U5 H; E* ?) @% u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% n$ f2 d" D$ ]. i0 f5 Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' {. l8 r1 v/ I) b1 [/ U o8 O1 H2 O$ G7 u
A look at credit markets6 ^" W0 O# z, W( I
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 `- X1 P5 Z; ?9 v3 T/ \9 ~2 {September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( b0 g7 t. n4 S4 x6 r2 Z# b5 R High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7% {, n; T4 g/ F9 N' l& `. o
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% z( c% }" w) [; zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' s% u- H7 p! H% _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& N$ v2 X7 U5 I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 y+ k2 ^, n: O# j+ E: `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
m/ N7 W# L+ F% W( Q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. f& w3 z1 R1 w) t- M. B; Efinding financing.6 e8 H9 t) k+ ^& |, t1 S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 T& E+ N2 X: o) Awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! {; o' s, P, ]$ Z# O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
y m) X# Y9 a1 e5 _! a2 ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: Q! ?# g6 p* C! H* _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 J; r. J( D9 H9 E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
t! t6 q0 K! f1 C' ?/ ~; N. C" ]7 Y( c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. k" ]# K0 k( F* `! N" ^0 ltoday.
! h, s! L) E: h Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- ?( @$ w+ \7 [% B) oemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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