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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
# o4 l2 O' Y# u( _7 X( TEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
3 \5 `% B& E+ g1 ]: u* iJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
( {8 L5 a7 a7 e$ p5 }Signature Global Advisors5 d4 s- ^1 C$ _. X

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Background remarks$ y& S, C* C, A. m
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: z; \! M2 }) |3 E
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 O5 \- H. v- F
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% q; w% }! L* s* s% V7 M
adjustments.
" o& F) m! Y( w+ ^: v1 V This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 S; B9 y2 R/ ~4 d& O
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  v  z% K( _7 G% K5 W Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 i( T6 D7 }0 S6 Y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' j8 Y: J' e7 @/ R' M7 V We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 A$ @3 t  }6 T" {
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 O' C% C- P- _' U/ g+ \  o# N Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 F5 Z9 B/ c0 I; o- Q# m6 P
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* O; q5 a) V, r' Z( s/ x5 W. q Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
: t8 N+ I- p& q1 X4 L, @ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  U* N5 r( `% o  _  v  @
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
/ |. K, B( M5 a6 h, A The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; B" k4 Z# c8 w! H8 O$ v9 x5 _
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, {* S9 F. U' ~5 ^, ]6 zimpose liquidation values.
# q8 `5 ^  q3 B1 } In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ F9 I9 D* g1 E( {3 a
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ d+ S7 S" G+ n$ i2 K The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, R; H% d' g: `# A8 j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& u$ r/ R3 Z7 s
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A look at credit markets
: t( v7 N- S7 f" y+ ^8 ^' y" X! r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; @; c0 O# V( C: @7 dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  h! D, c; f' H: g7 v- d
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 w" {2 f, Z& k
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- j0 [, r  G4 b) |7 H
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- L4 i' W6 X  c" a8 _2 qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ r$ ]2 F+ p5 a# B, J1 B/ S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: M1 @4 c+ s: f: ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! K8 b9 R: ]  B/ e  ]
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ ^4 m( g! Q, N  q5 C/ u
finding financing.+ i* y* F$ i/ K3 @
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. u0 \* y0 p: \1 e! A
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( }$ G3 B& d  i7 P! z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 I! ]3 |& R9 |. e1 L
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' x: K9 P) S5 H  Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 V  s/ R2 [+ p2 O" C/ G& E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- h3 u+ ~* R8 D. J* c  F European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain# x; q. L1 x, T; @% D# G" E. z7 I
today.
& l3 |2 C& H4 D" { Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, A5 C! f2 {; E. d% z1 T; Nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' ~# [2 {# K. W+ U' a
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 s" B' L/ {, q; C
the Greek default." ^4 }0 `1 J' [3 r& w5 ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, R1 V/ f$ F) d' ]! h3 e2 p1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- \( w/ e5 N! ~% M2 E- z2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ ~5 e/ D! t" x  I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 @9 ~+ a* Z* T1 }) R
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 T7 e8 Q# G2 P/ D7 f. ]; |  K7 b
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years0 ^+ @- q0 K  K. ^% d, O$ _
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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5 M1 k8 g" U" }  a1 R; B' I9 _( JBeyond Greece
" k. j) R- ^* y# w& P( ^! ^- m( S The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. E" `9 |4 z% o9 [" |
but that was before Italy.& N' d6 K' W* a
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! r5 Z& Q# q. {: W! E* J2 w It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! o4 m+ h( {0 `) m- b6 y* OItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion' m1 }( c, s6 v2 t8 X; u
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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