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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
2 P' l5 F0 K P$ `, h4 N" \! ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ _3 a$ M! w, ?' Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 B6 h [' \/ g7 c9 d, {$ f: x0 B
impose liquidation values.
z9 D& I1 d0 E/ U2 q# x In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% x' Z! Y" W4 t/ T, F' Y0 E7 VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& v: z X% ~' U: |& m
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, h. L/ B. e3 {2 ~7 R4 Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) {3 d" ^; k- n+ Y
' ?. B) N% ~) d# i2 _: Y0 dA look at credit markets
5 n( n! R4 v2 s( I Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; e+ A) K& z+ N0 Q' jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 M. \' e! J9 C. _/ U High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* x+ a. v; H9 i# _then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 J5 ~% Y5 X2 z1 {) {& a
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% F' V4 u5 I& A- y8 ~, Gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 [5 I& C$ T. [3 v+ @, F1 t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: A) ^6 i2 F- h- I2 P: E5 e' jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ R" U# @0 ?; F& d8 I; q# g3 y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ P9 E8 b8 @) F! _/ C& |3 i, m
finding financing.
2 Y9 z% l$ |' I+ C& {/ R! m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- q* P# m' P3 a5 C" k( H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: P; \% J7 G3 Z7 }' {' h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& `9 z4 i" v. H2 [; P
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 F; x* C+ g U! Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 s: e! V) C$ Q( j7 |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# X" n+ I6 X' o! d% s3 {- g0 d4 g
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- Q: y0 E9 }3 N# }, k1 Ntoday.. E# J4 Y: y+ w8 t" d
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 g2 V' W# ~ Q/ d9 ^emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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