TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
( @  ]9 t* J$ I+ f* S9 X8 v8 Sfrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
% t: F2 D0 q. {- v3 l0 h2 L# p. Uprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
! P# a: r0 W7 U: sfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
. ~% N8 B$ Q2 q3 x12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
) n% f( ]6 h1 k7 ?three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
- }! a5 m' f7 stheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
( m. z- [/ K  D' a& Y6 |) laffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
% D3 m9 O- S( \$ a* Z" `While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
: m+ u# V: L" K/ @$ Xmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
8 n2 e7 i: L4 R: k1 m! eon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
' v1 X. U6 S, \) P: c  ^remain choppy and new residential construction will be
) c% E1 l# h! g0 ]dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
' f) H' k0 ]$ O# N7 ris now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
) S4 w  f! K% i% n/ P125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
# B% v2 q# F0 `& mfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
4 y+ P5 D* o) `+ Kprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
. U8 d& F/ b" C) e2 Xregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
. [, K8 V' Q" ]5 t3 c7 }4 Ywould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
7 g% k8 m1 N* k- v: IRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
7 x1 `: e8 ?5 \, gpopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
1 W9 {( ^" f9 y+ E* ^+ Nalready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
9 V) S0 w: V1 W8 a. d" ~* Bhas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
3 q, k" _' w: Gweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
7 L* z3 [' @" r/ y8 v+ _Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
  c+ U2 _8 P0 m" y% d+ c8 U9 N3 dstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
6 ^& L9 k" f( |6 RMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
% W* ~  F# _; @- t# ^9 f( Icondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
4 \4 Q+ O* j, q( `5 Ihigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
; f, |: d! s' Sconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
' `3 b7 ?- p. n  Icyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
0 q& \, S  C6 U: @8 ]spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
6 M; o9 K5 w, F: w# q& i4 [anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
6 r% S3 Z# W+ Y# Minter-provincial and international migration over the coming
/ R: L* o4 i! w* G% @. xyears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
, g7 g  M% F, `  s+ iOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
# E1 |% w% D- B8 FMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
& |; s) n) C6 z/ d; `7 r  BGrant Bishop, Economist
1 W# E5 D3 {/ U% G& `6 O  Q8 _416-982-8063
6 M1 p* `7 M6 [7 w* u: c! ?7 W5 KPascal Gauthier, Economist
; T. f) ~! P: Q3 C0 [0 a/ g3 F416-944-5730

  A) j, f% q' `http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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