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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?+ s2 z3 S* \% |" e2 x }2 ]- ]
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
* h( ~. {# P* |Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine0 p( i& a) G& [2 p/ h
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.* n+ p! ] n0 n' ^, e- X9 q
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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% M5 u" O6 e& n7 `5 LCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.+ U9 c. o; ^* b4 {( R/ d$ {
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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- i. u& u; w3 HBut Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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5 g- I' ~: P- E# m2 `9 P"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.3 L# L, u( s# j/ o1 V! }2 i6 f
# H1 y/ V/ s/ e4 Q" ["Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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. q" i+ x3 o1 |0 d& z" LVancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.' I, R1 I V6 ] j3 q( P
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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3 s8 l3 ~1 P7 t3 @The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.2 E8 I% J* a( ?! Y% X
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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* r( \4 B1 I- G5 ]Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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, F5 d$ e8 P7 I# f3 nBut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.3 _- P h l6 s/ P
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch., @- L9 F- l, D; }5 O q" x4 o7 g
6 V: T7 v. v- o/ \2 C"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."3 o" T$ k2 Z0 W# [% T; Y: `
2 ~0 v: I5 Z5 I! a4 u, k& cAnother explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.- y% s: t: x. G5 t6 t
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.5 q. A. H& M" w
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.$ H- y; d5 e( D1 M) d3 o) S* B
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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; K$ ` R/ j* Q) E* QBut Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.3 \* [, x4 Y% c; N8 i
+ P+ u y2 S9 K9 D# y"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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