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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
; q+ E+ \* J+ O9 N" CPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
$ w) }- o( O( B! fCanadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.) g) U, A" g' E! w9 D8 B! C. I- O
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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2 ~' I& d& e) ~0 y# E# I. pCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.3 c+ @6 n* J/ P0 ~! @. x
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said. F* T1 c; e. j
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"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."/ L4 a' M' L% T9 Y( p
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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0 F) t& U3 Q$ |( b1 s7 f) ]The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago., d8 m& t& {" ~) x A' ~: [
& o% ?/ v. \, B# C5 m"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.& W B1 n9 Q' F" ]+ p9 _6 E
) q: ]8 F- v9 xIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.- j4 V2 J6 T3 B, A2 }% i5 b2 `
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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+ K& h4 v: }5 z5 Z, h"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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( M) d0 V: z& l+ U0 A"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.' Y2 I1 G }4 d' Z0 i
+ y8 Z/ f% V% f% z- ~, ^"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.
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" y$ D' D7 ^; u2 \+ j"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."% [! ?; _; K Y' s- ~
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.) w1 p; ?) N3 d( |
" y8 c$ n# I" ^1 @9 {& E C4 ]" l"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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