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No trigger for a Canadian house price crash: CIBC economist% C5 k D5 k; s) E: H; o& f
: S1 ~2 a9 E# e7 a, e6 b! lCanadian house prices may continue to slide but there is no sign of a crash, a CIBC World Markets economist says. (CBC)Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.( G5 q! V; Z! }3 v1 ?& V0 b
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In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.0 @2 k( X1 O# I
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"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."; b: x' D, ~% g
+ k7 V+ ?9 s. E# ?- n1 ?- tAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
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$ J- A/ Z% Y: A# d0 z"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.- ]2 j: b( d- M; u
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"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."! m( F3 y# N) N% Q' X% {1 q
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Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
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Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
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"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada." |
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