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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 6 s+ \6 P- h0 z& _6 _/ Z
, Y: i8 a$ \. d o+ V, n
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
H! l" ]- l( ]0 _/ Z& _ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US1 |0 k/ ^. K& m, G6 }% N) K' Z
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
" y3 E" d, J$ D, U2 j/ i" h. k7 H' j- mas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
. z) x4 n$ ~2 G5 V' X( v: N5 ?Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)$ u0 f$ P( R1 Q+ ?
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
& E0 t% }, g$ h: oupbeat.+ {/ l. O7 X( N$ l, \- X$ g
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded8 m2 ?# l) Y# w
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects+ I; \3 u7 H; K# O
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real, }3 d) B, r+ g Q7 G/ X. ]
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company, a1 q# h7 C" r4 b! g% B
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
6 D! a4 o9 d2 c) ?1 r$ aOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
5 _+ F7 ?2 Q' I# F: ^4 G% j' Bincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.1 p8 r, L( L; ]. {
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! F1 C9 `1 |$ p: IReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment, p- \( p b3 t& |! j+ j$ F* M5 X0 Z; M
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 _3 x5 W/ I3 F3 _6 ^2 l
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record9 w3 e x" ]+ a% {% l0 B
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ ]% z, R1 n4 U/ r; O9 O: a According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
6 C C2 ~) E; G4 X' c3 Jborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 r( T; I$ r, s9 W& W2 especulators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
/ [& K1 s d% p* premain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US. f4 A' M+ o" ~4 ^ B
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be1 ~( @7 t' A7 Z, R+ v0 W
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
6 w: f$ @/ {/ a5 D/ [ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ P* m% m' X' O; y% }! H; z
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
6 r! n: p" l6 M+ A0 u: ^commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land" G; x8 F; r# Z* \; m) Z
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
* b5 s9 y& |1 x% g& W& M6 d: S" jespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating7 S4 O5 f( ~) G( k1 G ]2 K
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The4 d! k$ F2 m3 u- z7 C# K: d7 f0 D, h
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to4 W2 ]3 n; R) o w* h8 o0 d
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and% ~6 u: {% z' x+ |; Y. e
single-family housing looks overpriced.
; {. S8 F: h* d5 F Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with0 v! M9 N' D) {& ?' g/ K. d
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
+ R! |9 Q6 E3 C2 w$ j6 ?metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) H" L* @2 W# x8 r# y" J: _, Q+ v
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting$ K$ i; j1 v8 E W5 b
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,7 P7 d1 e5 O J/ N1 |2 W5 D h
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental$ s+ u- X( c( _4 C1 ^$ N% a! Y$ X
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
7 r K$ V* P. R' `; [* _western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing& n/ ?( R4 b- g* O$ e
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
: A+ B: Q+ S/ Xthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
3 \, G, V3 w9 I& y2 kin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
8 \" r0 e; Y7 C! v, J2 H% w9 z, P2 C$ i5 z2 T6 }& T8 f
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central, k# G- Y/ {0 c7 L! m' h
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour+ m( {) d; l$ E( \) H6 O& d
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
% n6 C( L# h- a1 ? g, yinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in. } n6 i! t+ F; v G
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
: U$ r$ b# T! S9 ]) Uprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out* H x. v, B7 t: D! J( n
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
% J5 T g7 S1 g- f5 Bprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain% |, q3 {; R' q9 Q7 m/ ?
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
; `9 o0 a# |4 D! G0 O) x* SToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
3 M# h1 [! w! B* D! mratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ Z b% ~9 c+ {$ O& u7 r( n* G8 r
Calgary/Edmonton/ d( U8 b4 n* e5 @& U% z& ?
, ~! s- Z% t/ D) g% i/ o n* }& d6 R Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
" g) l# S: D a* A8 x1 Pboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a! U* l8 r4 {+ N2 N$ B
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,9 m9 b. L0 u n: Y3 Q& z3 q, t
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* ^- W+ ^9 N% z* T: V* p
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale1 j$ I @, L# v% k' L7 J
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the0 Y' D% U/ X5 G+ _( K( m
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% M$ J! z1 ?8 E) estrong, this market will continue to do well.) [3 P' \) W2 D/ a
1 y0 E1 L. _8 B- k9 B5 C Vancouver
% {& s4 H# \' J, S& j; H6 e4 h( e- M0 F+ B5 {2 M' M. g
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
/ J% V* H. Z# D8 o% Z3 b6 Q- j, @booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
; ?1 O5 j# [/ R, ? z9 o6 d* ereal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the) @. o: a5 `% X7 }4 d
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a* C0 L) L9 \# O ^
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy3 ^" L4 \0 m. A+ ^0 }
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
9 ^ N3 E! g2 i( Wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
2 _' n& a' k4 e2 Q9 Gfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
" P' }' x" W- Y' P- tgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
8 s5 ^: x5 N; y+ y0 l+ ?* ~2 P; }$ E3 k- n& v
Toronto$ D( \2 m2 [5 S* I' }& H
5 H( @4 {8 ^" u6 q4 x Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
: [2 o( n! A+ @3 Y2 z+ k+ _manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is5 y( W0 ^# F* P k; t5 C3 o
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing' F0 D- Y0 p5 A3 B
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
( ~. j' p7 | l3 J4 p5 WThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square! L. y8 V. o/ w, m% b: i
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) U/ Z: w- f9 \" g: |9 i, CApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
7 ~. Y9 P5 @4 \5 o: q; r, n6 m: o, c, D* B
5 m0 }+ @0 M: B$ A0 k3 n Montreal! D& [! T2 Q8 h9 @) a: L9 _
# e2 U; A- C) V' m7 Z# M5 l Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
2 e( X8 b* L a R& D! zgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up+ d" ]1 a1 K5 b/ z- {$ r
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
! m' ?- g( z0 b! w' g* n" ~- nCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
8 r0 l3 a9 P) L" v& @% rsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors. P& ]2 `( |% P
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
; I# S3 @" u) ]7 X0 b( a
, @% a; x" n- T The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years9 i2 w t0 D! M
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
. c8 @$ i5 {6 b( u& V4 bmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
1 n7 z6 d+ ~0 l+ P% o8 \6 pnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest1 j: @- k1 @$ m9 C7 |
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current: L/ W) a7 r! ~- M( [ n
prices."
! o# m6 f! c: Y! ^. Y- f( j4 Y# N A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 Y- x5 w( x9 e6 E& swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.+ _7 g3 {" B! f+ Q7 ~6 v" t6 a
. J8 J3 P0 n" I About PricewaterhouseCoopers
+ ~2 D4 q: t! N C$ C
# W. }/ o; s8 @; S/ A9 l) n( O% V PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
& x) a* H) I' xtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
1 U7 A7 @& m# I% a* J s" N: y3 Gclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries- C4 J9 w X( P+ R9 A# x z
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop' d. l$ U( k3 S/ `2 x7 {
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
- F* e3 D. }( e5 Y f, aexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
. o& O b) E1 A" F7 [+ Nrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 y* A! \( e2 ]$ n4 W3 D' N5 j# Xcountry.
" W4 I1 G6 R+ H9 h. m "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
) W* `% Q; I* q* t: |3 x/ E+ elimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& D$ V3 n& {1 J
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
g a* \5 w# S, X% x/ U5 beach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.8 Y; @0 \( Y$ m/ P% N' U+ l7 p$ w
: a$ S, k* V" R5 d About the Urban Land Institute" c! ]" L+ w) D5 D
# G6 N& t% Y, g
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 C9 a. Z6 X4 L( T4 Q- _
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
: |( A+ S; }$ D) [" O2 bleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& x3 k2 ]! x, \thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more2 |+ h6 q- l: D! F4 R2 O! y8 G
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development( {- L. o" e. Z
disciplines.4 n$ R; ^* ?1 V8 Y
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.2 O) q( U/ X. {( g. b+ n0 ?
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
" f8 b% N$ z7 R# a3 e( j$ dCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is; S- _/ e" W, R) _
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
8 h; K% D8 G% `2 a7 y3 e2 dhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
, d5 a; F, n0 Y0 _9 P/ V" T2 P2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
* J! m5 [& n- v$ S3 {1 bHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,5 @ o/ W1 u& i& f
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 q) R1 c. F8 {) o* l
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
) M1 {' i$ ~, k3 X! |the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066. J: @' X9 s7 ^5 V- V, y& p, ]
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% }; t+ h2 P; E6 |1 c9 L
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com9 q0 ^2 t% F1 s- H: d. X$ [1 [; q
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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