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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 5 k* I9 S% H4 t; L" O. t
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 6 T2 \; x+ ^* Z( I
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US7 v) K) ]' ]7 p$ F# C
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern- S4 `) ~6 G% O- ]. T: A* V
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging _* I5 _7 |% Q8 y7 Y+ \; _) o
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) K% n7 @) S- p+ d1 u9 ? N
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more0 w/ |% n/ l' }3 O3 A8 S
upbeat.+ N" e/ m' t6 M) K
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded4 ?) v1 @$ r: S. M/ S
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; V% N; K6 e, v) J7 s% S/ h- }: Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real( q" [1 z- d7 T1 N
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
! f! r' f5 s; i, Hrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
. G" A' e o1 Z' _% H% SOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world! O }5 f) `5 k
including Asia Pacific and Europe.$ y, x4 @ |& N" B V( F/ O6 g
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian! G: ]/ Z C9 ?
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment, t; I/ ^% _( @* |6 n& _+ z
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
6 k. P8 i4 f/ ?( r sbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record. _* f' d9 U2 }
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ Z# P/ a3 K6 s" B
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the' N" g+ Q3 q* y# C' X4 Q
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
! _- S: X: J# `6 h4 Qspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey1 X1 ?/ U$ B5 @! u: @- v- y6 E- r
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
& s& r$ U) c7 C0 A/ k$ L, |correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, [" S5 A6 Z' w' l0 Q `) B
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.% ~5 e( Z* z9 p8 K5 _2 V
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! o2 J0 b* g$ l y: l3 v6 G$ \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by& Z0 j) E+ B+ G( e# c( `( I
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land. w! \# x x- w4 \! K
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
" G; d7 ^" j2 V% r6 Sespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
7 K: R) C( |- u) q' w G9 Ddevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The" B: m4 _" g! [. ]& ~. ]
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
8 N- [2 I {. q9 J3 g' Ytake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
3 l8 e4 m7 R' B) R( y5 ]7 ]single-family housing looks overpriced.+ Z E7 I$ u( T
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 E$ _' ~) I4 H( z* Y& ~. y
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian' N/ z+ U1 E G8 B. v' M* q; r/ i
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
! @7 w, l; A; G. Z: m! L9 [( jhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
, { l, z$ P8 M0 A6 onew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
9 i3 L- x8 S0 ^8 c( K7 Kand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental9 _+ |: p7 l) x& `# g
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary, ` D* z! |" a& e
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
- u( M: k- b, e/ R9 L; Z: B* zshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# ~- E H+ C4 n' S' c5 o- }
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development) @8 M* Q: O, u0 }, \3 v, n' z l
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.+ Y* z# l+ ]1 w/ F0 y; k
, G" t% L0 C& r V3 K4 y
Canadian Markets to Watch6 k4 n7 r# _) q; L% C
, A+ [& t/ F' g* e p0 l# ]' F) g The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
1 I" ~' P. |- x6 hcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
2 _: ]% J$ n4 v) kneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
' d" D6 F! A% t8 n1 ~8 Iinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, u, }+ M, E1 F" q
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
/ v) B% e" Q* vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out9 n; w+ i, J( |2 E. |0 T
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment+ F/ r$ z! g: X) |. j
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
/ ~) b5 Q$ Q: I. t5 g" Fwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( F" [0 H/ \# g. k' MToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* X. I4 t4 a0 S( j' V4 O3 Oratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging." p2 M3 v; u) ]# c4 [" ~# Z& A% g
9 t: o' J0 k& p6 Q* Y( m Calgary/Edmonton8 O4 W5 j3 n6 Z. O/ m* i
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one& y% `, g3 d8 O! _
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a+ W$ b& L: ^: |+ ` B3 s
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
1 ^8 {7 w% w1 q* a7 R, |! t48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.5 B8 }$ t, l$ V: v8 J+ U" x7 D
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale, E# }' |# [, ?! t. c5 l3 p- y$ r) o
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the( p* _% h8 {7 ?2 b8 R3 |: h+ M h& U
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 o% a; W" K) _) }3 \% P$ m
strong, this market will continue to do well. Q& e$ ]# W% z/ F8 e0 j+ K. P6 g
1 X- A% y+ f: r, P3 {. x Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is {" q2 D' M0 W& V4 P( c
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
" F% k) J/ m) b8 Mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
3 t+ @+ S- |% Y# wmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
0 y6 H h+ C' B$ D6 n* @growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy1 ~( t* B2 j. f" x+ `$ }& Z
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%8 H- R! K5 Y3 W0 p& S/ t- a/ _
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
% S& g, j9 w. S, s0 @for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very8 m) K) @1 |# C& p `
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.. @+ D% s+ l/ }7 y
1 c; ~: \2 a8 e) D- t* s- L) i/ l Toronto5 I) n2 k6 p% d$ d8 L8 y
/ c4 Y+ B( a' F! ?! I8 ` Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and2 h: G6 b8 x1 y& B8 r: d1 c2 R
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
3 b4 U$ V @3 `! E1 t+ {$ Xrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing. g3 P" H; X2 o. E) [
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; b! _8 }9 i$ E, O6 C' L8 V, ]
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
" J8 w$ r8 f1 ?" J$ |: T' p8 Rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and6 M5 M& F9 I" b1 q! N7 O; _: p
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys. c% ^7 @+ U% d4 M9 A1 V
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Montreal* H$ y' E" X* D! a+ M5 t- x$ f
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall% D3 ]0 ~: Y5 k! C ?
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
! c9 E8 d; R* t" |$ Y! Rshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
y# I' [% ?; J7 h" k6 ^5 JCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate5 d1 U, d4 Y3 R* c" E' P
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors7 G n8 \5 T8 i9 p! X
higher as a "hold" recommendation.7 n) L6 a; j3 R* s7 }
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years1 g6 p N4 q8 Z" |0 O, J8 i* o; a
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy- A8 Q3 n- L. X% S- n! e
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos! ]1 H5 D: }1 e/ L6 ?- y
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
4 S- ]9 H# ~( Foverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
- x5 y2 g) d) J+ iprices."
( q) M! e$ G, g- `5 s" p A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
* @. E/ I$ k C! J5 Awww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.' t0 g; J0 U" i) G* H- D
2 X( ]' W) e- C! z6 ^ |1 Y
About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 ]: j3 `- b, j2 U7 h. y, [
. K3 m' U0 s7 Y+ {$ O PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,& X6 ?# J0 t3 D. K, O- _
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its- r+ [9 w4 J g$ L3 D# J$ C5 L, [
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
. {) v# {' y5 P4 T4 q, J4 dacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
7 U+ q+ q8 |3 Q, M- ?7 ]fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
# S! g. d& q, R1 |- J: d. ?! n4 Vexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
; p' W# S. `2 u3 d/ ~: ^! Arelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
' f/ N1 Y2 E. M ]! r! I. zcountry.
6 v( a: a* ?6 m* ? "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( h" `+ F; F% _" n0 ~# e" I7 _
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
0 j% c1 h. m& F$ I5 W1 r6 cPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; ^3 B5 C K& c K! Seach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.! B- o0 Z# z' ?6 h7 a, n J& G$ M' [
- F( k+ n; z( o
About the Urban Land Institute+ }( w4 {6 l* E0 x; K
; I; J! t* V, D6 e8 a" m, H The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and7 V& Q/ C" R+ a
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ f' \& c2 v6 y, Y* r# f* T! j8 I
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating2 C0 ~, I A7 f# ~, |+ q1 M
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 H: b" A( y- C2 ythan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development' l1 k1 T" O/ m* N5 K
disciplines.+ g# w) t# B$ G
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
! Z- B* _4 n3 ~+ JWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
0 Z( G' ~7 o& E3 H& oCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
}( j5 o1 a% A; vnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
- {" A2 {" l: [' Mhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! ]! R3 e! w3 Z5 g( [; }2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake" {+ ]9 q% N: O" {
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
5 b+ M7 e. s" c, z# x1 vPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please8 ^, T2 ? X7 l3 N( @9 A& I5 k
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on2 v9 T# o2 D7 w. c8 }+ [
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.5 ?- d2 o6 R+ o1 {4 A
: K) h- v; l" ]- a- R$ i+ ?
! T& N( x' r# T1 @ x/ f& F; B' }4 [ G2 o Y A" h
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
2 h7 S1 `3 E: D2 U. _) U- |(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 Z5 V2 Z# Z' S* ?' B) P) \/ A/ Shttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html! G$ ^3 j+ \! L
+ h5 o" F3 M! z8 z8 G! b) O[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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