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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat : |0 J6 y' W# c+ J0 H7 ~
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
. u, T: v! S+ a" ^, b1 O1 fcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern) w; N% g! c* G/ M; l
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
* W5 `5 a. S* V7 I; }, c" @ f0 p7 LTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
) q# V$ x) `, S/ Q2 |3 e Z' Hand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more3 [; H! w0 y3 X9 ]6 ^* X
upbeat.5 _! e, w* v: e- q
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
: u0 `/ v* C- b' ^9 Sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects/ h+ T. L/ O; l0 M/ c# V" P- |
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real$ o& Q! s R! E( T* j- Z; I$ q
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company1 A; [! {% s7 L# u
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
7 N5 h; |( C4 z5 kOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- I* b& Y5 V! d/ K% M' {including Asia Pacific and Europe.% ]+ P/ L( u1 z, @7 \
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian9 S, Z2 q9 S) B" x1 A( B' ~
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment/ c# k& t4 L) _ n. X
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
0 X7 Q% E6 {9 T, @/ Hbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 \# ]$ l! @7 L$ t3 [+ Yhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
, z* \/ v* b) v According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the( n$ T2 \) q2 _
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game, k) `1 Z2 J1 M# [0 Q
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
9 H; z. f& l" P: Bremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
" }9 L& O% `& K; N! s* `% Zcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be0 J' Z! f: \$ G3 ?/ P5 T
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.* x. U# M" m# f$ k! T. C9 n, \
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
4 x0 F5 j* k$ K4 U9 yrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by! B2 {& x: w% M
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land& S9 C) m. R* b9 T2 `+ |2 [% c {- p
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
9 J/ G* S6 O/ E6 C. f7 r( nespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
" z) z/ h' V4 s* l" gdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
6 }2 x$ ~% _4 q2 ]. Hresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
1 f4 ^: N6 R* H) H4 C0 Q _take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and: ]! x4 V: j' `% X% |
single-family housing looks overpriced.+ _, e' ?" p1 i
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with& f: \3 Q9 Q5 p5 `$ _
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian' Z7 J$ C6 {6 H* [7 e( n+ ~
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
5 \, K8 j! _% h: \7 ohigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
) L( k2 F1 o v& fnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good," r T* x5 z; E/ B" g8 M3 M
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental# G! X! M& ]: s" u& B9 M A
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary+ A S, ]8 f3 m; u
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing f/ Z6 C! @* A% m. h
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
: \* @, y: W# u( D( w: ^the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
/ B1 Q/ a$ m f3 ^in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
5 e* @, x+ ` Y- L% A
* b6 k( T$ b. K) @% a1 N Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
: t( Y E7 w, A# ~cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
5 l u5 D7 o- M- T1 eneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back0 O( l6 ^$ k' `: I8 \7 d
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
$ t" i. H' a4 D, sdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
- n$ W! U3 H5 K+ f. k8 y1 Tprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
0 u2 D) X3 L3 `- O; ?$ m: Q) u9 {west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
' R4 m6 w2 p/ Z( a2 S8 q' E6 Yprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain8 S; l. k, d- t% x; p
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
; h6 l5 j7 ]3 \/ p8 ^, xToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' ~- i1 o1 A/ q& \6 d7 V7 Yratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.1 x4 @& a& P" B, M- v; m
3 k8 w: h8 ^4 ?( @& Y( w+ ]. [( C Calgary/Edmonton o/ y" x, a6 n5 _
$ c m2 n' C+ d5 t' D$ x/ n
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
2 k% Y$ @6 }9 o/ p. v7 mboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
2 t# j& a! |8 K9 `0 F* T/ I8 mbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
( l- p5 b% c- w48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.5 p3 D6 d: B8 { z
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale8 y# ]. M+ W. x( U9 v
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the9 S0 k8 c2 H% r6 @
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
" M4 Z& |: J/ X4 w0 _strong, this market will continue to do well.
1 ~. y9 G# H. F- O% x+ s* G
- A) Z7 J2 V% M Vancouver2 g2 a) d1 |" o3 P) f
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is' c3 G) e, x6 T* X+ z4 u$ L
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous" N& i2 }; y! a+ j
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the% d. V6 x' F7 J; m) S& C; W6 {3 t
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a5 P: U( T9 X8 F
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy7 p# u6 n e: a# k K* Y
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
" q0 K' y1 V8 V8 {2 H8 i7 h5 f% n& q; sfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
, h: V8 n( k n8 Afor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very% c; L4 s+ |' Z* ~2 M5 m" ?
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 b5 y4 |) j7 c" f' P$ a/ w
' o) X7 F* A- g+ m Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and- Y, r) E( w$ k1 \% L) I5 e: a
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
; d, Z. c0 e* J* r. srelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# ^, o/ ]7 k) |4 \+ F: M. oindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
- m/ Q4 {5 C* }8 N; H/ BThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square: {. i" _/ C$ a+ [+ ?
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
* D: K$ U, Z! o- YApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.# u! q; b. ~$ v/ |2 x" v
7 }5 g5 m- \. J; H8 O+ t! B
Montreal& v& S5 d0 R' Z( h0 F
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
7 W& C; a" P$ S4 c- [" m/ ^& m5 c" Agrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up6 K3 I. i5 z d+ h) R
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in) k# s) G# C! |
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate" [% A1 {: e& L, _2 r5 l
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
8 P/ c* G* j) x9 `) Q2 hhigher as a "hold" recommendation., @/ H) }8 `! q# G* G! x
0 Z/ d: X9 h |5 D5 Q The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years! X8 S" i6 u" |' K: K
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
/ W0 J# \& [7 T* m: ~8 c% smarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos$ b# R) A; E& ]9 I
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
3 n! d4 x. s+ }4 D% voverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
$ l8 s8 m: B- U1 nprices."8 j$ t Z" P( H0 k2 s
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
/ z! e( I$ P5 h% U. V9 N. E$ U+ wwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.' G1 L! m; J; i$ p0 c
; @; Z6 O7 W# ?- Z5 m$ j
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
9 K; z( b" {6 }9 p8 t3 O( _1 ^( o+ t
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
" o, A# L7 a' [, o5 ctax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its# m& S4 l8 D9 D; S' p* I! H2 G
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries' N _* B& {5 @* i
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
; Y6 P. d" T! J d. m9 p* _fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
* ^; ^: m" E" L& S- Cexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its/ J' p; L" u% l+ C
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the" G& v; ]0 l U3 r8 N
country.+ _' B$ L: d8 {* g5 j' F
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
0 Z# L/ D1 }5 ^! O _3 ulimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
- n! Z9 M9 Z/ a8 r: GPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,( g! c6 s* s5 z0 Y$ D# a" k
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
. i/ A( ~, [; C+ _" U
' E' r, k) _+ j6 T$ c About the Urban Land Institute$ C4 X0 j" @' T' i9 x! R
/ w) N5 B6 ]4 ?& M6 K: u
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
, g6 f% Z/ |2 c" @1 |$ Xresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide; V! l% h2 k; m1 e
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
- ^$ u! y, r: _: Y9 N4 f; L& nthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more, e( _' c9 x7 k3 P: u3 H" }) [$ j
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development4 Z& M' [- b- V" o
disciplines.
' p! \# D: [/ ]) J& V, W% V The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
, e0 C' I! S8 {- [# J6 sWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District' ~; ?0 S& M2 t+ @& Q4 ~0 P
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is- |: r5 E1 S0 r$ s
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be) `' F: ]0 J0 z I, [) e6 A
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,9 Y7 A6 ~2 n% Y
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 {4 {. z7 G, U
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
" @4 }# l+ `8 U6 z) c; w, a5 b+ \President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
; S+ K0 e; W/ o9 Z8 n! H! Ocall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
. l) U7 h: Y; H) J3 t2 q0 hthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066. |4 }/ B$ N3 X, R1 @6 b
2 Y) ` S9 m6 D( D9 D5 `" r5 I( K( M1 Z0 d( H% y" z @2 t
7 h; |& n% T1 B! _5 iFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
d4 S' p, U8 Q3 `(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com( m- O$ B# ?' G. p8 {/ a# W* i3 f
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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