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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
$ n" w' i, q% V1 T6 g( N. h" b9 [ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
0 ]+ i7 f( ~7 I B" L: qcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
0 h2 _- \! [: Y* _4 x: T- Q% Was the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging2 N7 N+ }8 @+ j+ _2 G y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& R1 V% l$ ~, ^3 c2 |2 {# y
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' S; F* z2 a+ i0 A! Zupbeat./ O3 q/ o7 P+ V
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded0 L9 C: z& g9 G7 }0 |3 m
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
t7 t$ \: d5 o3 ~. Z% d6 winterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
( D; x+ X6 Z8 ~% J5 `7 v( z( zestate experts, including investors, developers, property company4 q, ?- n. {# d
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.8 m; d5 P# A' l3 @7 Q
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* E2 C+ @$ B( l7 Jincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.( g0 R2 u' r* U# X9 f
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
6 [. @# w0 N' u. o* Y4 \Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
. d& g: @! R1 X* renvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to! J& L6 o5 V6 [! U
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
+ O2 [7 V3 J0 ]5 b; X- Jhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
1 e: d7 X9 C$ Q/ Z0 @ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
- v, F9 D3 R3 ]( j$ p8 H3 Z* a# sborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
8 M( T6 H+ T7 Q! Qspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
% `. A+ B1 {" ]" G( a$ }' ~1 ]3 d* ?remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US% H; p$ s, l. _1 c9 t M
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be! y' V5 s+ k) d2 o/ c: i7 h
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.1 @; h1 E1 n% z% x; C
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian, `7 A* V E: F, {8 f% Y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by6 R" R! Q$ n+ m J& l! s
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
- e8 M3 }. f, X# I6 ~8 z' a; Vdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
/ ~5 Q) Q$ M# X, _- w5 Iespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ K2 p% q+ V# c- L$ ?- d. L; d
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
2 P" \5 n, k. i i$ vresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to% _7 V Q6 T( b O
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
E8 M& z' l8 N, fsingle-family housing looks overpriced.3 n: n: _; _7 L/ h/ f/ n R
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
. u0 f k! Z* N. I F+ Ntenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian$ O9 _8 t" b* o: Q: W
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 q( P i6 U7 D9 T# v: _+ Xhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 V/ v6 x# D7 K5 p3 S8 F6 N$ ?new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,6 E. G1 b- _4 w+ W
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
9 Y- n# D3 D1 L2 \; D8 J- eapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
3 }2 i9 T5 \7 o s# Q" c2 L6 X4 Twestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
. j* P Q2 }% K) T. }; y5 ]shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into+ Z* p; M' j: t7 y* |
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
3 p3 W8 j% B. v) Sin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., q( |6 G+ U3 k1 V+ A4 r+ h
+ F4 d- T/ }# ~* V% ^
Canadian Markets to Watch* k/ D R9 F$ }) F
' D/ a w+ \, E5 q& d. h The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
! Z+ Y6 ?, q+ Zcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
- N& f" x% _7 ]2 J+ U) {0 o- H ineighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
a6 b: L: P# e* Jinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in! M# R% u& ?) r2 c/ s0 p
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 V( T% s ]* |8 q* y1 A) L+ _projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out+ t- n/ m& C! \5 y, z$ I) W& ?4 _
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment Q$ [) @" B0 a" K# ]1 L: f
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain0 ?' l1 o) S: Y" A
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
]# J e. R8 @ KToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
5 [5 Z7 l( d" _- oratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.: d# \& @6 ^; u1 X* Q: v
7 z6 W) Y0 M. \! n8 f Calgary/Edmonton
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, k- ~& F& B. p9 `6 D Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* w. i) x+ M2 i
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a! T! D2 a! i. i2 D# }: G) d
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,$ }* @0 e) [+ `
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property./ }: G' [: f7 {7 `
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale9 I/ ]* L4 I+ ?% X
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
, ~0 \- _5 O% @0 D" @( T$ X, XCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
- O! n4 T* l4 Y; d' ?8 V: B! m; cstrong, this market will continue to do well.0 N" @$ u: e, J4 R o* k0 r
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Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
7 Y( N8 H' [% Wbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous: R' P5 C, ^9 p$ A
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the# E e& c+ L" b# M
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' ]* i' P8 c4 F, l) U8 E* x9 sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
8 b1 a% q4 T+ B/ i; h) Jrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
# K9 z; b+ C8 Y, n# V9 f" Nfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%" Y. r& k; F, p G
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very% C0 L; [% R |. H1 W
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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6 V6 M' a" c. L3 `% P4 U- U Toronto+ @8 \: x R- A! U% g
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
9 p* T4 y: s0 C7 J$ j# P7 Wmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is" S- I' j7 X% Z- g0 V8 Z) `" ?" X
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing% g f. i$ F2 Y
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
/ p. k+ ~5 W/ i8 q+ TThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
/ G% q0 i, `' t& Wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and; C, h6 D9 G: j s, E3 s! K* {& l
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.8 _, d/ M; b. z. W
/ S5 U3 N' A: T
Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
! r" C; W, I# b, s6 d1 Cgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up+ q; k4 k) ~( u( M
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
( q9 b+ Z$ z4 YCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
8 i' z! E! n+ x4 U* \! Q9 esectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors7 [/ |+ c; _$ y) H) }# k9 {
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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! b, H% g# s. x8 V0 p The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
9 ?1 {" |* [% p; S, dinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
* |4 r0 r) |( E5 Qmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
# j6 J6 b+ q5 d2 unear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
: f5 z, I1 ]6 ~& g. F# [overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current( ~' v. J3 \+ s4 o/ V9 |
prices."# U# R. N, @% q0 c
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
6 L+ @2 @( W* i; V# lwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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/ O, b8 w: v: W, u PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,$ C$ A# S; X# S2 ]/ Y
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
/ E H, e! c2 n) L K0 Q9 o# x Jclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
0 Z1 ?, E* A! q d3 Vacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
, r% Q9 ?" s# X- pfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
$ b4 L$ c& h- jexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its9 V; b% t4 W: E) a4 v: x
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the ~/ V$ _/ d) B! m6 J
country.
1 j5 Q/ A- j0 h, f* c" x "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario$ h, y7 t3 @) T
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the" @1 b8 D% X( |
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
2 }& X6 O$ v# D# W2 |6 weach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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: d6 _0 M% h" o& R/ m The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, j, j% t6 E2 a5 Y
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide8 h3 y0 t7 t& T+ J+ b
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( \4 ^4 ]% K' Mthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
4 {9 |: `& U# C$ Othan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: k& J6 v! ~' |, ]* {$ ]' q8 K5 Ydisciplines.
4 u( o% E: m- x0 h7 r3 G4 L The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.. u W0 ~9 U8 s. c- T
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District8 I$ J5 Q4 D1 ~. O
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is# G, G( ^0 j: O
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
' H0 u; L9 ], @ q8 o6 Rhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
8 N: x* x. W+ C! C8 f2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
6 r ^2 j2 t. G$ zHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
$ U2 H/ Z; R5 {$ a9 ePresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! Y6 z& @; Z+ v, Y, y7 i5 W0 d( [
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on) Q. h: @, x" z/ Z, f
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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4 Z' ]' V9 U& I& j
4 `6 H! _9 H# N$ ?, d, OFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
: |0 @1 Y- g$ i7 R2 j0 C7 p6 C(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
% R3 G; l/ a6 o. l( @, Whttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html0 E8 [ r; w" B3 m6 W' T
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