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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ! I; u! n! w4 ^* F
! H! @6 T' `9 A. Y0 I/ {4 w
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
+ f3 C$ j; x) r/ f5 W: s/ K TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
4 ?( H: q1 ^) v: tcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
1 G, A+ I x5 R1 S1 }6 }# F; Mas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
$ s0 u1 i( o" ?9 E/ k9 O0 L3 j, STrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), ^7 o- r: Y1 [4 H& @/ ~1 H: z
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more1 m! B, J) ~- l3 q! ]; ~
upbeat.
1 z% k+ c- z' `$ B Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded; {# h& y( s+ Y( j: E3 w( J; @" T1 r
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects7 C$ A" M' s! S3 d
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
- k# E0 Y+ S: ^) D# X, T. Cestate experts, including investors, developers, property company+ X- q: {! x {' \3 R% y
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
9 T1 N+ y, O, o. F" ~7 t X/ pOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 X1 `. A% e. b0 t/ z
including Asia Pacific and Europe.4 d2 V; g5 v5 _ Y
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 q) S* ]; S: a |3 F
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
; N& X- ^, o& \3 Uenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to, ]' N) b& L% R1 _& s! \* V* m2 A
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record- ]- x% b' y1 @/ }# f7 `+ @! [
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.", Z0 |9 S+ z( f, y& [8 ^) @. t
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 g. y6 T$ g. b1 C
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
" ~; ^+ x: h& I- [% R$ `- {speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
. Y; B. ?7 O* l+ R4 Z% f- W' U' c* Aremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US/ R3 m. r% W0 q& l
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
2 s' O" s6 m5 Z9 o- Qvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.0 L y! m; ~( ?9 N/ N: v
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
9 S. R( t8 C, z& K# D+ G( Lrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
3 B: v7 b0 ?! u9 r" h) R. pcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land! Z) H1 n; \; d8 J: m) ^! m1 j
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
, Y9 m/ x! `7 v. {/ P+ d, Kespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ D0 {5 U* l* {2 E7 H+ J' P8 Q
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The& ~% A5 t; M" o: ?& W, ?$ l3 U
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to0 F. x7 A G9 O. Y- W" N
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and) V$ f4 C0 I Z1 ~
single-family housing looks overpriced.
4 J R F5 z1 u& P$ f Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with6 D4 K. O! y6 n$ i/ m- B( W6 y! i
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian' x& h9 D/ E2 n3 k; u) c8 T, z
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
& _- t! O& w: C' c4 F uhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting& l c6 P/ ^2 E! q1 O
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
8 F5 ^. D5 D) Z; @and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental1 H/ L3 \- b% G- Z/ v
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
1 Q% ?: Z. a" X7 J, kwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
* q' N4 o, n' T$ n# u i0 N; Hshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
0 C# J' ?% V6 z3 ~7 ?4 F4 B/ Vthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
, r) ]+ c x- ^( W2 d0 a8 yin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) L8 f' y6 {( l
& i9 T' [& a8 a
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central* E: Q# r9 r [9 V( i' I" C
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" I7 a3 w0 j& f* [) }, c' D5 S) N' j
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
; t8 B# |5 K: z8 g3 D" Qinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in O+ m+ g" h) U
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
0 Y. U% Y" u8 V3 W+ ?projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out5 Q8 _1 _5 _ A: \
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
& X- h' E" t; D% O! @" L2 Qprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain+ U1 V* F% G. G
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( x1 [; X' r; O3 O- t, VToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high, |4 k, Y9 V9 ]+ }: D! p
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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o6 D" m( f) M' T2 Y& U* n$ O Calgary/Edmonton
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' `- a& S p% W. _. j2 U8 r; ~ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: M E& F I: Q, C* j. ^- O
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
) R+ ~ N3 F" I: C* N: H; |buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
- K; k/ f1 ~: s+ h48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
9 ~3 G1 c# Y! q1 K C, MFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
) d6 R+ L8 |7 v( p, A% v0 r$ LHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the X% R( {& d; _8 t
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
0 Y* `3 U6 e# T" D* p; d/ w4 L# Qstrong, this market will continue to do well.
. L4 M. q: r) C+ }- D) q0 I
' ^/ F Q3 N9 @% ]* D0 u! O Vancouver" r; I3 ~/ G! P' i/ {/ E* J
8 K& H. |+ a. W- [, _, i Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
# {* A$ c! s) W. m, J# c# Jbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous7 Z( X9 i2 m! E/ T
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
9 N/ E1 Z6 |3 b0 Dmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a) X4 d$ Y% c5 V: O+ c( b% y4 ^3 l- W
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
* D; O/ I) b5 L5 nrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%! D" m c# I5 Q3 R4 M$ `
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
/ U' i# Q: m/ u8 D4 R- Ufor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very8 h3 S+ ^# B& l6 R
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
# C4 i# l: V3 Y/ i" @' v2 J
0 A# @! {8 p( l% H6 w Toronto
- y7 z2 i6 N9 \# x. D; ]
9 j. F* \# i! F4 o5 }1 M" t- P+ f) K! W1 f Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and& N1 T) m4 u( L2 q
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
& S% x3 V& ?5 R* S `relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
! g7 i8 M! Z& g+ I9 `5 o: nindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
0 h ^$ X: }) _( LThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
2 V& K7 p$ C6 Sfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and( Z2 D7 l% n: h) r/ M
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.7 @) d; e& I6 U6 p1 s, r
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Montreal
2 M; `, `' t4 Y2 ?4 X
6 w' ?- ~/ U5 O, z0 C Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall7 }# Z: i' W( l7 y, G6 [3 }
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
z# Y/ K! `; e. h; `. Nshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in: {+ J$ \4 s$ j3 L$ I- n3 q
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
2 {0 G. i' s' J( \5 b! l/ @sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
( p8 A5 b4 V: ?. G! g; t7 Z0 c& Yhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
% ?- d: Y' R9 r. c# t- b1 L
8 v0 K* \3 e5 b2 d8 N3 p6 [ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years; I4 j& W8 [1 @2 K- _: w
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 b9 r$ s& b* H- ]markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
: c) x1 T% p/ Q) C. I$ tnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
5 l6 } ?2 z6 }" f0 {overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current( @5 }' _! Z/ x
prices."( `$ y; f- R N! F
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
+ V7 g1 A6 U5 t2 u/ p1 t% qwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre." X& u1 | w: z2 k, F
; x" n* t; Q; ?6 C0 I. m+ T About PricewaterhouseCoopers5 G: M; l# I( j$ x. }
$ D, z5 z2 @; b" z4 z( t( r3 ` PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
$ B3 l& G* I: }6 A i- jtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
: P8 c" f8 E9 q( I! ~5 A! [1 s9 {! Mclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
: f. c: v# d7 J; o( d3 z6 ^across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
- ^' C4 [5 i* W5 F1 Q5 Mfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
/ i* ~4 e7 ?5 s- ?excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
" z+ K( H2 |6 }related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
% j# p1 Z. T( `. O( K: S1 X) Kcountry.4 o/ |; R: i1 Z3 t
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario8 N9 \- ]$ b( W7 g. ^' N u+ ~+ w
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ Q5 o) r+ w, z) B* B, P8 C+ EPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
+ e4 N/ b+ C$ ?) |9 Peach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
" H, u, N( n7 r, @$ p
, |/ H- |' U; S About the Urban Land Institute5 i. k6 x6 X- ^% }+ A: P
* D/ `, L5 b: q4 C" p2 `
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and. \) f3 n2 A8 k9 O
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
. u) O; `7 G, j+ A3 `3 L3 ileadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating+ I( p1 s! i: W4 C
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more2 ]5 V$ {; A& O
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
0 D2 q5 q3 V2 ]: L0 }disciplines.% O6 Q( K: e! y: _* ? Q% h
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.) s/ A! ]; A6 I( K9 k8 }3 D/ s: W9 T
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
& Z" N* p% q1 Q5 U# E4 ^! rCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
9 f/ H; ] Y5 b# q" lnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be1 z3 i7 W$ s, P4 i
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,) }+ Q: Q6 G! M0 X7 q/ J, \
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake4 \' V" x: f6 K8 y2 M5 {" \
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
: |/ p# |" L0 r `; c4 pPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
' z# A$ j7 b, b( X5 B) L* Z# Pcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
4 T( \1 \' p7 Y: e6 q5 L5 l" Tthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066., _9 M! d- N. v0 e' J& l
" `( ^% s% G0 B& P2 n8 I! [# ?
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( B6 e3 R7 G5 U4 G) W6 H% z
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,) r* D/ `2 U# V6 }
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
2 a, K, B/ I( D/ _1 U B$ khttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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+ ^9 R" ^. X8 D3 c[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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