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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
( y2 _( m% |, r; C
, v% m2 l: ]) U. b) FDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
6 A1 K4 U4 ]% Y2 Q TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
0 u& p" ?' m% n1 ^! U2 Scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
; M9 i! k9 n4 d5 y7 }# y, ^5 m4 tas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging5 A$ u+ A6 i" V8 w4 E
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
1 ~2 @6 g) D2 G( Hand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
7 W! x9 I4 S( \upbeat.- f% A+ V' j$ ]' V
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
6 t2 M/ x/ }. j( X7 Y: Z7 Rannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; W5 a' x& o4 n8 M) L/ z6 @& M
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
" E9 j2 n( G4 {# yestate experts, including investors, developers, property company ~+ q4 B+ N; |: w( S3 f4 E
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
* V! U I% l1 i" m! uOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
6 ]- s$ \ }, J. X4 pincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
# x% `1 n6 ]0 G) r+ x According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian& a$ r7 b, z' V& Z. X; ~4 u
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
5 B# e; {( ?# v# Kenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
; ~, x9 f. s* ? Ybe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record3 u" H6 T0 W! \
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."6 B/ ?% l4 O/ ?: ~3 q" j1 H
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
, G3 |# T0 n+ b7 H' eborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 f" J1 N& x2 \" J% e
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
+ G$ p1 v2 v- { f: @9 w0 Yremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 b, f" i7 m3 b6 x; I rcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be8 V8 T/ c6 t/ \
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
# \! e3 }/ i& S, j: [5 }3 s The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
& ~6 X0 H: h, L8 u- k0 mrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by" E5 c6 H; y. h) f
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land' n& Y! U8 _) f6 z/ h
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
% B1 ] b, \2 w- q2 G7 Pespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
$ F7 H* o& g5 i+ U+ J) ~ `development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
$ A. w5 A$ Y4 w+ h5 G) Bresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to. S' y! c n! \, u: c6 M
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and% w1 L9 F1 H3 I5 u5 a& Q N
single-family housing looks overpriced., i/ n2 r8 @6 J: t1 \
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: z8 U+ ^: U" v: p
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian! @9 a% \1 B; q4 z- ?( Y" N
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
/ k- G$ m* w2 B7 G: @% Jhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
4 M/ y6 W9 N) rnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,, [. R& N( ^0 k' A2 N" t
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% l- O) r5 F5 K; S( W- m. {( ]apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary$ e4 i! d' P, O
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing; F7 Z3 a" P: C8 e1 a4 B
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into0 G1 Z! u: ]1 H
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development8 X0 Q( c8 b! l
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.; X. V% u6 u2 k: L8 L) B* R
0 g- L! }2 Y4 ?' \: b8 z) \" ~ r+ R
Canadian Markets to Watch$ h3 Q- h4 ~6 V
6 Z# h6 X+ m3 f1 ?1 [, N+ o( G
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central3 l- x- ]& P9 g) Q7 t+ p! C+ X
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour1 I! Y( ?. _. \0 J* p Y2 J
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
( B" b+ X2 F$ ? y! s3 |$ rinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in# T, U! }2 ?$ @ n
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical( t0 J* r8 E i0 B
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out; c' Z/ `2 P( n
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment+ s1 { j- @% o2 L) o5 E! C' V
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain9 R' Q$ X+ \' }3 b! m0 S, m
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this., }0 L& Y( h6 u2 P1 D
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high" Y( v) E8 A7 ]* j2 U
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
6 V. @; h) e0 V4 s- d- K8 j2 x
s! S7 f/ D! u6 i2 _5 l1 q, c Calgary/Edmonton. L4 N9 M" A) a3 g
2 i- x( X6 T$ C0 g/ d Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
" r$ S/ p9 _# @, Aboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; a& z) B- r6 d5 v) _2 \6 R- o ?buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,5 \# }( Q4 r* F4 g2 C: v; G- X" y
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
, O8 l6 J* P3 B/ J& x( ]Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
, p7 Z, H0 I7 e+ eHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
3 W1 P% D. m( \/ C) QCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% y3 w7 m6 f! Estrong, this market will continue to do well.& [' B, f, x: Y! J1 \
0 x: a% Y, t) i0 B3 O% V/ A8 ` Vancouver
3 }8 x1 f2 G3 H; \3 @) f2 Z, X9 |& V( |9 k+ _
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
: z' S5 u, p# p$ l2 B" fbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
A; L& t2 T7 v6 Dreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
+ H% [* C& [* ^) I# h' Y1 O" smarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a$ ^/ @' v2 p; L- q& s
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy- }4 ~* f" a4 H6 @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
. e, R# f4 x7 I( [2 { ^1 T+ sfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
( ?6 D# k6 y2 K. A* u8 C( ]for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: n1 d* y1 O! I4 x8 w4 \good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.# A, r/ p" a1 `5 o: A) j9 D2 L
$ S; v7 p& G7 N1 K- ~/ W6 Y
Toronto
, I5 g) `1 G4 O- \+ ]4 I ]
- K* v0 p( W* o Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
, J0 D5 m1 |2 m( _- ?. w; w8 Hmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
2 W% ^) r! a! T+ ^) A7 G$ orelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing1 [. d& W6 \) ^+ B$ z
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
$ S: I5 z0 L" h" }# d1 U8 u3 VThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square+ b) Y" k8 _8 S( \5 X' x
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and3 J1 r, G5 x% F4 w
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
) v: N4 ?( K) r7 Y% ~5 |! r+ Q0 r
Montreal7 {5 d4 D2 v c1 z' y
6 J# b5 h7 U7 e) f0 |5 e Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
1 J; Q: ], J* t: ]1 g4 l H$ U8 egrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 S7 u/ j$ l3 ~" ~shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in) G% g$ _/ R* B/ B9 a
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate9 w: c3 ` n+ g4 K
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
$ Q- U, N; H3 X! V0 n+ r% `( `) Ohigher as a "hold" recommendation.
% n- p8 U; J5 F; W, j! s% c* k0 j# i3 F
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
0 b. _! I- O$ _0 N. W* E, @% oinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
, f; g+ ^) |7 Lmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos" s' e9 Q1 }- [1 Q t
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest9 G" {0 ~" s' F2 O$ q9 O
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current7 ^9 X W( U- x& o
prices."% g. d) Y4 s7 ~, I# n6 p
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 i+ L+ J5 `! l7 l1 b3 iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
$ K5 G7 A4 K& @, {. \) d4 ` J' V( \0 w7 ~( e8 ]
About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ D* j; C: e+ R' x+ c
; h* O1 [3 `& }' A
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,; O7 t* q% v/ a' {' v, d
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its& [; n/ ]# J' N- j9 O
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries: }( b: P: o- c+ P0 G
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop. r: i L! v4 {
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
3 C Q9 x4 r& [6 u; t: w0 v. X8 eexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
5 S$ Z; n6 T5 a( W0 _1 hrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
4 \3 }: c G* B. b$ gcountry.' k0 O( S+ m' {0 Q; k- |& v o4 a
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
$ N$ I' o3 j% d- i7 Olimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
! q Y1 A2 B- UPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,4 y$ J) H8 F/ T7 n' ^
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.3 u4 x: U+ x9 Z6 I) W0 ? S
5 M- r! e7 X& F: q About the Urban Land Institute
. h# S; ]: j/ _1 ]2 ?; }* ?! [$ k" [: S" t; N8 Q
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
2 p% u4 A. ]" l, Z' t6 Hresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide0 e+ S8 u" x/ P
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& J y5 @ R/ ithriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
/ Y/ ?* \. x hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development. f7 d! A4 a1 R' F+ H7 s' z, u
disciplines.
, z, N r) e1 V9 O) v The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
9 k3 x+ U! E. i2 W2 GWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District. b- d; |( _4 K$ G
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
& x& l" v" b8 K8 I$ L7 B# o' k1 D8 Y. Fnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
- r* X: T% m6 c% Ghosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,1 e) j# |+ P9 w0 V. w
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake# ^, s2 e8 B) W3 M
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
' X' k# B4 ~9 E1 f2 OPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
, N* y3 S$ `- V1 ~8 p y0 ccall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on3 \2 y9 _# J* a7 c4 W
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066., ^& L, p& a Y4 p0 Z! e, n, |. a* o
2 }9 r( L+ L; ?
( {2 N: q6 H; H4 k& `6 B: { i& l, h; O- \
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
. Q) q5 i' W/ E(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) I7 W7 R1 t" D s. n0 i
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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