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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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6 i, [6 {. p pDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 R* I V5 \2 M7 K TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US1 J# i! [( f( J- F: ^' G1 R4 ?& T
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
9 z! r1 F, _* w3 O! l% F& Das the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging5 y& `5 u; c6 \
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( T- o6 h8 ~/ \( f8 W. _
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more. a& h9 [5 [5 g
upbeat.) L Y, w/ k! D& V- C4 b( ]5 U
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
. a. H$ w+ w0 J2 S, ]annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
9 W4 B- W1 i8 Uinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
4 l2 Q2 r+ F. m$ Aestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
0 V" \% }7 `. l- d6 v& ~representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US./ g; z q9 w& j
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- Z5 N* B/ ~$ Q0 D# N( F) w* aincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
r$ w9 y8 V0 k- t0 L According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian: y6 [+ w3 N# {& {+ [* U
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
: l" R; F, t. q4 b3 {environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to& w; N" j) c) q) q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 o& E/ a* H7 I6 v3 chighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."7 ^- o T. A! L+ R( T" d
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the2 N" V2 Y o$ o+ J
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game, W0 c) l+ X; z, D, O6 ^1 Y& h1 R
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
8 V7 Q7 l+ W7 z9 T3 tremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
3 \2 T) e G f- Y* ~2 q L: E( Fcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be% N1 \! ?" G1 ~4 P
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.8 @' N# F. S7 @/ x7 A
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian8 B& n+ T# {' v7 i
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
* ?% \% U' C2 `* I$ U8 P+ c& P jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
2 ~# }; T5 r) a; fdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
3 y" m; \' [" k0 [7 b+ _* despecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating+ w# C5 o* G: ]8 Y4 v" }
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The! e& Q3 d' Y7 B9 ^& f4 {& t. }
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 g- u, r# U8 T! {6 [6 F7 n6 k5 g- _. otake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
( w$ `$ j5 k2 n& _+ v; t isingle-family housing looks overpriced.
) |0 L- ?2 b, L' S- t Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with3 D4 s# r: o8 b8 k$ U- h
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
& p6 n5 P [, ]) E" Nmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push0 n H1 D$ k, M1 U! g' {
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting1 j$ h" e4 R% ~! f( E: V6 e! S( z
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,( D# D4 @5 o: W
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
5 ]- z: ^0 j- L' C4 w( capartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 |$ v" \9 f# o H L/ ~" Qwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 ?+ I3 O8 j* c2 I) S1 `shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
5 D, M. I5 F, H" R3 W$ j# dthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
& u, E1 G/ \- Qin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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. @" _& l% f% M2 _6 ~& z: T Canadian Markets to Watch
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- n& R2 J5 E; @( M8 C3 J The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central8 s' c/ \: I/ i1 I: \0 s, b
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour6 \5 R0 n, L9 W4 A: b' h
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
" X# G) L& d: R! D% R- q7 cinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in' m4 q0 G: M4 U& h6 r
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical/ s5 R3 h; |& j K" x
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
}: Q& q, A! a$ qwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
# h- V* e8 x- G% x, `1 U% cprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain3 L7 J9 J2 i' M( {) @9 n
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
- b) S+ S6 r6 W8 I1 j/ ^Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. R9 E% h# C7 b5 B8 t9 D
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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8 S. V) c1 }' ~3 f- Y+ D Calgary/Edmonton6 G! p% T2 r7 {0 L9 V6 Y$ y
3 A7 c% M$ O: ~ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! W5 x! C! Y1 e2 g+ L6 \# Y+ rboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* S/ f, u+ Q4 R( E: dbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution, G- F6 a7 P U% x
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
. m0 j" f, Y7 n! e5 b# z) x+ sFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 W3 g6 s3 b4 K; s( D, W0 V
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the* {9 V7 J) W( T S: j
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
/ K# P9 \4 y; \( O. Q) Fstrong, this market will continue to do well.$ B+ b- N% _" d# B
0 q/ j8 X$ _8 }2 y* r
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is4 E0 n D/ ^; @9 G4 w3 @* Y% |
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous9 ]2 A: |5 C( y
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
) e7 r* ^" f+ V8 @3 U/ z" [5 F. K7 lmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a& [( H; z; Q' q6 t& }
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy: M/ } ?9 V7 S! B' D# q0 \+ @$ E
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
- Y [2 I* B1 j" H( H# }; Sfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
" P: w6 c* ^1 l# V" ^4 ^# {! k: ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
3 X6 v @/ W3 `. rgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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2 e7 t+ N. d" e Toronto3 S0 K- \' c" N! f
; B+ a% b/ q, d; ~ Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
; ?- n# i4 P0 ^% @0 W) Cmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
4 j( B0 H9 Q6 \8 T) q5 k$ Urelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
8 M( g. }4 u |+ U; J; }- yindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.7 P6 t' ]* V, h+ J
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
: R% m) o, D" N6 [7 Yfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
" W9 e" h9 R, U- a) z7 g; lApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal! L6 S* Q1 L! j- U
2 Q1 |) U H/ j$ a& p4 A Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall c( ^3 h% x% j
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up- G8 ^0 j$ t7 |2 ^
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in5 y, F1 ?; B9 v. J# @. j7 K" h
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
" O9 b0 W! L; h) s* ?4 _- _sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# b+ D0 l w: Shigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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% t: q$ W4 l* P4 W& L' D The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years3 p1 l+ t2 t) d4 K: y/ X2 i! q4 U
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
* u) f! L% i" @- Gmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos* u! @" {4 |# |) ^. A1 h
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest8 c+ x: O, J V7 ~( K
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
* x% }& v: P; a! I; U, q) |prices."
. J' L3 y; } w0 w A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at2 k8 R( S# }+ L( V9 o) _* Z
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ ~7 ~$ _& c8 `" k* U
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,# s- f! r0 p$ D, c5 N9 D
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its7 G' E+ C4 P9 j6 u% G, m: u
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries: A0 H* G# a Y1 q/ r3 Q$ s; E* W4 V
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop* E! `: c9 y& a7 u4 Z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of5 `: F3 o; d. {$ I2 B
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 B! x5 b6 z4 L* }/ w H0 g6 P; }
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
# u. i" I" p+ X# b7 Q' u; z, ]$ }country.9 V- ^( i; H! C: ~
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
# A6 b4 z. r4 N# qlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
# f% B' I; J1 [" R7 ~% CPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,8 e% ^% g7 O: | l9 o
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.: c. {- W s( F% K, P
6 M# g9 M" {& a7 P/ {" M' ~
About the Urban Land Institute* Q2 d0 c$ @+ t: {+ o: Z7 V
8 L) \* a. c; I# }! m2 r The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
) z5 e; ^$ z, V% o3 Oresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide0 K% K. q2 i/ N6 \2 A9 I: \
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating- g* J( j9 X6 x# ~% d o& ~
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
% T2 w: J5 j3 q" d) tthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 V; g; \* N) o0 ~$ L
disciplines.9 E# e' D: j' o4 x
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.+ S" n" q2 {; }/ d1 J% |2 t
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District0 ]9 I& e; `2 [1 U3 {. s, ?/ K
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
# L d8 O/ ^* m9 J9 M! [now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
+ D8 |) i, x5 T! h: g% ehosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
6 H/ j- a- e6 M8 U3 T+ b9 T2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake' x( E: A* ?/ c# \$ a
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,2 B8 _. O& w0 n. n2 g) L
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please8 A' }+ z8 S9 T5 b, \
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
3 n0 U2 _0 l6 c/ Q6 O/ \$ @. [the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 `+ c$ e) Q' y4 z. }
6 p' F& `" S; F4 ]0 \4 D* W3 A, i7 x
9 e+ _: u' { _$ {! v2 w" L
' Q; I3 y1 j% _: s* hFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
! L4 C- j+ k+ h+ `4 X(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
7 E0 J7 n/ m+ R3 f% s* thttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html' o3 S# J2 I! o$ Q
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