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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 2 F5 A: T' V5 _1 C$ r' g
! l% Z# L7 s M: e; f: } t
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 8 q+ U/ r, |- i6 v5 G3 i5 y
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US# l- ~$ n C2 `( q2 z5 F$ b8 Y
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern; Y I# K5 w* ]' @2 J
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging. ?& `. T# o5 ~, d
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)7 C9 i9 c s8 X: H, ]2 e
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
" T. g6 {, i& ]& n$ M5 Zupbeat.
( Q% Y% d! X+ H0 H' X( U* \6 { Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded. b' G' \( F3 N. Z U ^
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects' j* K, h4 u, F
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 j' p8 Y3 j* X2 o `
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company$ Q& S5 K b* ?$ u( a
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.* I# S% H4 v( S- N
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world& U1 t8 I8 H/ c( W
including Asia Pacific and Europe.) P9 x3 Y6 q" [/ ?
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian/ ?2 E7 l7 G8 s9 Z/ G
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment7 t4 u* L& n) N( e
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to1 g6 o2 N2 t- w; o/ g# i( R
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 N Z8 E u# g j, x: D% q8 ~+ d0 Q
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."8 v. r! H1 b z& R& k# i
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the$ t7 w' |' b* r; Y
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game, b9 P% N: q6 k
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey' E, g2 c: o4 ]6 {
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
' C1 O# \0 l, Qcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
8 u3 E9 x4 B! hvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.! }4 Z2 P, T9 K( K/ W& ]5 V9 n2 z
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian. }1 O4 _0 T/ [. C# h1 E3 u2 y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by( x7 l) |* c1 [
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, I! d8 L5 u" Z. r2 N: C
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country6 s% m( Z& |# v4 h7 J% y8 J" g. J! p
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
4 d) V9 Z; t4 Z6 @9 kdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
* T1 D' x/ T& I- presidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
7 p# I2 R. |- S' Ktake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% D6 I6 P3 w! S2 m8 nsingle-family housing looks overpriced.& D q. X5 y9 W3 e& e, r V9 q; [
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
3 U4 E( P7 K# U1 dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
: _9 l/ U$ W( a. B; p% V$ }1 `9 smetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
; R* `! } w1 a5 `- w- phigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting8 a5 _ I2 m, m7 T( X
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
4 T' f: `4 O$ E$ Q& \( cand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
# v7 j% l) m" W- t, l8 Zapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary) m" \( R4 s" O( g% O# |* o x
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing" l: s# j8 X- ^( r( d2 D/ `) l: H
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
% u3 a; _" F, \9 O8 V/ j1 l. @the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
# F) e( H0 Q0 _) f! V3 ?8 c4 I' @in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.! j( K/ e7 o+ x! V# t
. x2 z9 ] L% l: i) P2 `
Canadian Markets to Watch4 ~2 r3 ?+ l; o J2 F+ M
: c7 d7 @! g: ]8 E The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central! O0 ], A0 Q5 ~
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour. G# O# Z, z4 D. W" t6 W+ B
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 L. S& H- k7 t9 e. _/ `into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in4 `( G! s$ [. q- h& Z& k1 [
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& m9 U' r) c A, E5 P$ y y; \
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out( H/ z O) a6 e
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment) w8 O& M- `) _3 Z/ Q
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' G, i7 z; z6 E! G% m- y) \* ]! P
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.8 x# r# S! Y$ U) ~
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
( }! ~( ]: a2 U; u) j; Xratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.% C2 R" |' G% Z( S; _4 U# g) h
* Y" C: N; ^8 [2 Z Calgary/Edmonton
2 E6 i+ q, T9 w% n4 T, g
( q$ x" X& m/ Y# z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* [9 X. N( d* q
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
" h1 J- J: u, Ibuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,& ]# W5 C/ g" ~: c) u3 n' Q5 }
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
* J! t! t5 L7 r, YFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
1 I6 e, W% {) r, L1 c2 c' X" x; tHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" k E1 Y6 z qCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays$ A7 }. J3 l5 Q; h0 d2 k _
strong, this market will continue to do well.
4 a, G" O8 ] a4 N* p- G
9 T% a1 O% ~, t# k Vancouver2 [0 x3 z- r; K4 _/ B! \, `$ V
8 p% {, [# ^& ^; ]. G Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
' c+ i w+ ]* F: ibooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
5 Z: A2 z3 z: }1 u* Creal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
) w/ T x3 a, c/ m, Jmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
. U- M; a* ?! a3 L) q( A6 m# \5 Vgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
# N6 U( t1 L v e8 z/ t( b. w' grecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
2 L& }. f. G: x& M, dfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%9 Y. @. ^2 Y0 ~( u
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
w0 z+ ~/ q& | m7 P0 h, ogood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.0 h4 v% V1 K; g
4 D: B8 I5 i. ~ ^: i. N Toronto
/ l4 F1 V5 W+ `7 F
+ Y9 g) I5 }4 v2 v4 o Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and6 a" ?4 K4 | P; G9 k
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
: E, Y- P' I. L) ]2 z/ frelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
% _$ b7 d0 G# x% x8 j* f( T. tindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum., v+ k' {9 S0 O
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
, t# i2 e/ D! m1 N- w4 kfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
9 ?1 _, x+ h! x$ {# f! v+ w6 JApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.* U( D0 a( u9 d( k/ h$ h
. d3 T4 J* V. I( [$ ]$ B) o7 u* P$ C Montreal5 x0 \8 x- T7 r2 A) x- k( [0 o E+ K" A
6 u2 V3 u4 N- k' W; u) } Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, y# {; T7 b4 wgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up+ ~1 o% B; l2 G4 Z
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 x6 P3 |! e. lCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate4 P9 h8 r8 \3 p9 x! T
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors$ q3 D- x$ q G- E. p# o3 w
higher as a "hold" recommendation./ C& ?; \8 ^1 Y7 s% l8 c
1 j9 v; t7 M. ^+ Y1 J
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
, y$ p( g8 B" qinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ R' A% F" g5 ]* c [( kmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
5 a/ W8 R- H* d6 q/ K+ Ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest( @4 p* \, B- ~1 k: w' g# J& W
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
% d8 A0 f, z$ c& [prices."
7 p% {6 H/ F$ y# M* f A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
j) R- n9 {9 C' o! y) W# Nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
. N$ i" p; U' L8 V( ?/ b& [: L
7 B9 q* g; Y+ ^) Y About PricewaterhouseCoopers
1 U# A1 Q5 J+ [2 z; z, _0 }. Z9 F# Z% y% e/ U
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
( G4 I* ]$ S5 F8 t1 i( C# Vtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
# @9 [6 e6 V# Z! Eclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
! c9 J: `' z+ {6 V, u9 K- `across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop2 a) M9 Z3 X# H& b( Z( r2 [6 V
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of5 u* a0 ]# u" A1 m, n, C
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
+ T7 Y& S3 ]% D: xrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
. a/ w! J4 x6 ~3 mcountry.
# a- I& I/ @( ~6 A% P8 c3 m7 P "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario9 J. A' r" H8 C1 A' L& P
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
7 k6 U8 J* O0 W% U ^PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,1 `$ s5 e: c5 ^
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.( ]1 ]0 n8 {; V% @
- i; j* D( l; A% M About the Urban Land Institute
, K I' d' q5 |2 A; q5 \) m0 Z* @
g( S, h) ~: Q! c7 O' F The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and: o2 i5 l; ?8 }
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
2 v8 b6 o2 ?0 @% B3 m6 J. S5 Tleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating; U# q* N D' J, U# X' @2 o
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
% v5 y; Y) H' S$ p% kthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development: I/ X' a+ \9 e* h" l$ H
disciplines.
1 e/ Q4 Y6 o% M: y The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
e7 }$ ?0 E# dWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District" t" W+ O) M0 E! U
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
E. h/ C5 w8 d' ~7 }now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 g9 s- W) M% k) Chosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,2 t$ O% l* @7 W6 i8 g+ G' }
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake1 n6 N8 ^& t, J u3 F ` u, o
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# @& i4 d$ X0 Q U
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
" d; M' w0 W* o+ Ucall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on& }- e$ O2 q' r2 `. s
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.( n! w# Q8 S7 a, {& [3 O; r" H
& @5 `1 J( A9 {: X
) T T. }7 j* z5 o" ]
; ~5 w/ k- k4 U; q) K& W4 B/ gFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
' i8 A8 s: r1 g1 W0 w6 ?! X(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) F; X. o* |* H
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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