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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ) T: k! A% [! P8 T# Q2 c* O
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
6 ?% f0 T4 N+ t. p1 f0 S TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US7 D" O/ Y: g; i0 G3 c# ~/ _
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
( {0 @# z! n5 Eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 G* x+ \, T) Q- g8 aTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)- |8 I6 U& g1 K \9 R3 \8 o4 M
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
/ G8 |5 F' H ~. W( \. r& G/ hupbeat.
; _7 O6 U1 M6 K* P" V3 i8 X& h" w Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded, k1 q5 [" v0 D/ b( d, Y
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
; Q0 i) i0 H" o1 ]. }: [interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real& i0 `4 v: O- A1 z
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
- g, ] F1 O7 t) \$ m- p6 b! z! Urepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
+ G, _3 s/ v" ^1 yOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
6 L" D! C O% Y: Sincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.4 }, l: o* h* s% f
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ @1 f! G3 G2 M v$ X% T
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( G+ S$ ? q5 i) v8 C& Ienvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 ~$ G/ G2 p! f6 cbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record* c2 O0 |3 n& W7 x; I
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ a6 F% T; M8 k5 }0 k' E. ?: h According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
K: k- ~0 I7 ?, k1 x0 tborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
# k% ^4 `; ?* T# M( X kspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
0 S0 ~- i8 W3 v! ?$ g, ?remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US( C3 X4 k" P* a% J9 T1 N
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
- B: d2 n# `" R! X- ]3 ?( mvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.% c. a* Q! L" b* v1 y
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian- {( h! I) p8 r H3 R! [
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
% r ~! H" k4 n( j' Bcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
: F" M' `/ w- G p- l( Z! Mdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: X8 A! x# t6 `( H% c2 m
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating% W2 b& w; X4 P
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
5 H, v8 t* v" T/ S. s. Iresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 I. U5 [& Q9 x' o8 Z% m1 l8 n2 v" c
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
; u W$ [4 M' ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.. P1 ?& c* U2 M
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with% k% D. }2 b% f- v2 Q+ L
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
1 {. }- p/ V! Y, }8 Y9 Cmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push4 ` t, k3 W( p) R0 t8 G, s2 l
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting( _4 s7 D9 B* r' Q9 u9 e- d4 @# C
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
) Z; |5 ~# O* l) K N9 |and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
6 V7 v1 K# T7 l8 T7 H' C$ tapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
$ V+ u* n% T$ y: N4 `5 [western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
1 E; b9 A6 L. D! j wshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into3 u- R4 M3 |! O1 ^+ M8 W
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development1 k4 @6 |* R- g( {6 G6 a) q
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.4 o0 p* E0 j a7 F$ d
7 \/ k- \4 d: {* V; M: X y5 q$ |5 W Canadian Markets to Watch
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4 i4 \8 s0 `5 M The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
- A! v/ @% b7 `& Z* a' ocities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" @# T) `' e, G+ w$ u" d& @
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back& ^# I% x4 s# c4 s4 Y! |
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
; H: s- r7 L9 wdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& r+ G7 t2 J+ @7 F+ [$ l
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
) H! ~2 k6 n. @0 T' E" k' U8 A1 |west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
2 Y0 ?; r* o5 Cprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
]4 U2 m C" i0 { c4 V9 Qwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.- }. h" K- \7 b; y. p7 A: }
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
8 X0 }% y2 n! t9 c4 Wratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.* g0 W. q7 ^. X( e
2 |& Y' |8 ~3 O, N/ D* N" j Calgary/Edmonton
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8 @ B+ j2 J( ^ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one6 H _3 ]: M% }( }" t& e# W
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a0 t3 n2 E9 q1 F6 A3 t/ Q* k0 O/ i
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,$ W1 r. {/ o, z2 X
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.2 ^! j! E1 ~ B
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
- h, R8 v& D' M2 o( g$ [8 [Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the9 e% {/ T- s3 B$ V: O% T
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
/ V Z! b; t, ostrong, this market will continue to do well." @. M" z0 s8 f1 u+ ^( `, ~" {
) b2 N/ q+ S8 X7 N; C o Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
: r3 Z* W# c/ fbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous& E7 z9 X4 H+ X4 O' l
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the* _& }8 y4 w! h' L
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a# ]" _8 P. s$ f1 y; T; J
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
; ^* K/ d( y* i" N& _$ ^% U" l [; Frecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
' [/ [8 O! O, Ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
; b+ y: r" X( L |0 K1 }. Pfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very- u/ h" J( i4 v1 P% [
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.: R2 V8 t6 ]- y0 C* o) P
* g/ j: }! j. y0 F) I Toronto
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1 L) W0 R/ B. D0 m. | Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
9 m7 V% ?0 T* |3 A* S. i: amanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" X0 ~+ H& W5 w+ Y Q9 P* crelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing1 ?" K/ F/ B7 v% y4 n+ n
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
. F5 D+ R( n& rThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square- {# D* l$ Y: o( P9 J% p0 F8 ]
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and6 p4 v8 g5 V( _) f: c
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.2 v: Q. O: m J, P0 I1 u' J! A
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Montreal: L5 N# v4 d4 z4 U/ d9 V
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
3 i. o: l5 ^" `: v" @growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
* ^! u! s, }# h/ E3 @5 Tshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in: E/ V; v( K" W
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% @: D. u. c7 W A$ R5 X6 S4 h
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors2 w& S Y; t4 B: y4 m
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years3 ?) C& S. V8 A$ I
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
. y, `/ K$ N7 J5 V" g9 w; kmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos' w" p# U- \$ y. F E/ ^; [8 V
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest% L2 a; D8 @& Y9 F
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
' m% ?( O S1 r! r5 G. G" \prices."8 X* X& S- F$ i# R ]& m# X6 B' _
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 W% W4 U) u% [ m# I6 g
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.% N# Y( S5 B Q/ e" C9 J
% a R0 f+ ^) b, D7 e
About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ z5 Q1 F% C# x5 f
8 G/ |* b0 K) R
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,2 u) ?6 K* z+ G. i: x3 [, c
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its( b9 P9 w( @. s8 i6 }7 i1 `
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries/ A8 Q$ @ i3 N) e3 `% u
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 L1 W! o) r: u% @5 n' }fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 N% y6 u' U- d4 mexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
6 }6 l; M" n; Z3 ?2 Q4 rrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 A0 |6 y0 {7 s; @country.& z( R# o* P* s" L$ D6 Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario, K5 o" w" U8 @3 T' p. @
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the. ?4 ~% L* ^/ I! S+ T/ Z2 _& x
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,3 i/ y, P: Z% |; m
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
% X$ j, Y) z s& ^7 u5 S V& M
# ?* g8 B8 ?$ s- }4 j1 O About the Urban Land Institute1 n2 X& s8 L' M6 ~( A9 |9 t
) Y: _7 g, y1 @7 v4 M
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and$ v0 ^! s: M7 C
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide+ K; \, c! k8 g' [$ D. B" G3 {
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
' g% D0 c$ @( ?8 u6 {, V3 \thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ |& C% W4 k+ `2 x7 J- `) Ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
# e( l2 `4 l' b0 k7 m8 ^3 Vdisciplines.
3 H- V. |6 U/ s* _5 i8 F+ V& r The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; A3 j, N) R3 L
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District$ A$ {( Y) y3 \
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is, E# y! X6 I- A# \$ I
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be8 |9 J- q; W, O0 v% S3 N
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,0 X& W8 _# C# H0 Y5 b
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
7 C' z! [7 E6 gHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,. _" |' j/ E# w8 v: |' l& `' F
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please, ?: K2 r% E' h5 k% ]8 R$ U
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
@ V- a# r: d4 Q# ~) v; Fthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066./ P! A3 _: P0 z5 X# \
+ |. W. L' ]+ g: |! A+ F
& C. }: H# a% v6 ~
; K8 v$ z8 K5 ~. G6 A1 qFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,+ k2 M( z; }+ ^, w* B
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
) g9 D6 B/ ~9 E# [) A/ y7 J& |http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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