Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, r6 c8 C9 Z# v/ XNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
  S$ i: C; l/ B
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
4 l: w+ ^& i2 `- l- N1 G
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

" U: \2 b8 ^. fAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

" ^& v! ^8 M0 M' |  HJul 2007
$ \3 h% _4 N! |9 h9 X: C NA
, [& i  U& K8 l' {- N 2328
717
- }/ O8 B8 ^4 h: R% g 442,752
410,000
320
28
31%
2 R! k5 m" Z  m
; U) W9 {2 G& T8 H- zJun 2007
  o1 ?) U) T5 \ NA
" L* }) w5 V. ]- P; v) q- | 2661
# T( Z% d3 @/ d% M 1011
  z0 e/ `$ ^- W. j% r 442,817
409,000
328
22
; Q- s5 v) l+ L/ M% @( b$ n$ v% D 38%
4 K3 o! O- X6 `" v; c: {6 m
" ~; i  u' t: N, u1 \; ?1 c/ ~May 2007
8 x; a/ S- e+ s: f7 h  } NA
2288
$ N  q* K2 i. A9 r! y! ^5 X( Y 1261
451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% G9 d% s$ K$ q- p鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
+ V, L! L: E" S& j9 @0 l4 F鉴定完毕！

& H1 y  [$ n* \
7 x. [+ q. }0 b用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ f! F" V( M5 _; K! j% f5 C* j/ u2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' G! ]% G* G0 v1 m! y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
. C, {* Q1 }9 l存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

0 H9 U( u9 \: |+ H: A9 X( K
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

. r; Z, K4 \  m5 i$ C  ~' Y& @新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
- w: g! T( E( j9 d6 n
2 d) b* j9 A" D: D, V$ L% m1 H就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
8 D$ H% k* S4 ^4 @
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

" W. {8 U+ R4 O$ x6 A

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

3 {, I4 g* w) B6 F2 S' @

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
, O4 |6 X6 f) t; H* N0 sIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 E! H8 j( x+ Q( y, j1 w5 a  M  `6 AHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
' K! @2 \9 K4 q& R' j+ rgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 e9 M0 Q6 [& r/ jHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

4 S$ u. l% c2 ~; h5 V$ C
4 n8 v4 M6 D% x  ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
" k2 ^. V5 c+ ?/ n5 w+ |4 [Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
8 V1 f) A" h' m7 E1 M5 wIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
- \/ h0 M1 g, d' `' P" ]

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

" ^4 c8 \. s7 [/ l+ {" Q! }
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



4 A) A% p( i  A  F6 e只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
  Q; M; k6 o7 r. c! s, _4 S看来，观察days inventory 更重要。