Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
. @% C, `1 \* V! j- }; M  XIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

% o: b+ T. k3 N; aDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
) r6 X; v) _! `* x$ h
8 E  o; u' Q2 h! K1 NOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
9 |. J  F1 S) i/ X, X, `1 V
9 ^! l6 z$ `- _0 J( tSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

: ^* C8 k. c  h2 mAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
, _# G) @  }1 r0 m8 X2 }3 R( ]; E
; m( X5 g  n" W# y1 W; _Jul 2007
: y7 L- L& j) A! p3 h5 F NA
7 t; ]+ ^4 j0 u8 X( r 2328
717
442,752
410,000
6 P+ ]) r, i6 C  ^4 J% y 320
6 h. p2 |. _% x$ ? 28
31%
8 R& c, j( l7 W" f" O
Jun 2007
NA
# z: f/ c% O& ^1 |; M' y5 P 2661
- L1 v, t- @" A 1011
# n$ f% i7 r$ C4 s$ P8 g5 k8 Z8 y 442,817
409,000
; G) W6 H0 {, C- n5 U9 `- g+ A( S 328
4 B3 X* J5 g: Y 22
) d/ p1 I+ T) Y) ` 38%

+ S; G" R3 O# |5 j9 h! N9 |May 2007
* X+ g" }. ~0 P! t5 t: `% n' E NA
2288
1261
451,216
" z/ o  N8 H0 n/ v 415,000
4 v' a( f0 z5 [, F! K 322
19
  N: x. J3 |5 g) b7 _ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
  f: C/ Y+ [. U4 Y/ n鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
/ w9 e& |9 g- P+ F' ~3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 A' ~+ r2 p! S& ^. C鉴定完毕！

2 j" r7 S8 y. t" G5 l3 o" m) u呵呵，太不专业了吧。

  j4 n6 [2 ]. h8 e5 n; |" {新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

. g0 c2 o3 P0 B就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

6 J9 t3 |4 _4 v6 N& g/ Z这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
7 l1 g- U6 w  H- W2 B- I8 tDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
1 V) S) O: I/ kDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

8 ^( o2 E: L. G  v$ V

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" D9 h/ b1 |2 @. Z. X* h# {Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
% V$ \5 y3 r+ [How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
& I& G6 e+ O; O" g5 _* ygood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
* S6 T+ x6 p3 P/ D" v7 DHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

$ p) g* |5 d) }& l
5 D2 g* b+ g2 _, B7 TI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
1 N- h7 u$ b6 Y! j! w3 tEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
0 T: ~) A4 K: }# _6 BNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
1 f& o$ ~8 y* @0 X6 Q* A# E

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
& e& u0 T  r9 p" g+ w! j1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
8 z1 {1 D* Q/ S" ^, c: i2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; [  d3 Y# I4 i9 X1 |+ P& r6 O- B3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

, i+ M" w7 T0 |% T0 M下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

/ k: q0 @+ N7 Y- V3 i3 A& H
" t: V! w" g: a5 o( q
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。