Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* z0 L+ G) Z2 l+ ^( MMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, g5 a/ ?7 k- H' i. C. \Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
) [* V* J; l& l0 `
9 `) |/ n" ]  B0 Q4 C5 F/ ~Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
0 u1 h% H0 l/ V1 I9 |8 d
7 h6 l, L7 h3 C. d7 rOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

8 m3 O5 T2 o3 F$ iSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
' K" H* @: f  `+ g' u" c
* k% u2 ~& G$ D3 oAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
7 ?! N" l# @/ |8 o4 Z
% z8 @  _, d. C9 g) P) t1 e  {Jul 2007
7 c4 }' k7 b2 L" y NA
2328
- G& a& ^% O% U; h. H& u# E1 E6 s: v 717
442,752
- Y/ e5 c% z) y4 q 410,000
2 @/ ?4 F. W. w" z 320
" w. I& @6 O' m  P" x 28
31%

0 {, j1 M2 t3 e8 oJun 2007
( {7 G0 e0 j% O" K  f( z) S5 s# Y NA
' k9 `3 ]. T0 u, ]- _ 2661
/ ^3 J( F, t+ A% c( z' M7 D 1011
4 w. d  m' L: @$ F+ v/ ]9 N 442,817
1 A9 v3 y6 d8 Y. C; H. b  c 409,000
4 ^' s* K/ |6 r, q- s 328
22
38%

May 2007
8 n. b  `4 k- y* R7 E8 j) ? NA
# Z( {! R7 @' q/ ~9 d3 ~' c 2288
1261
" g; _! {# V5 c" _8 x5 E( x 451,216
* e7 f3 k' N' L) o) W  Q+ f( n 415,000
322
19
( |( r% S) u) k  b" U! z 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
: E+ K4 Y; V/ ^1 v. W' d这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
; w& `( M- i9 K0 c: \存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
. D, `  v! h: N6 r9 b鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: o1 B+ L; H9 y2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
- m" p9 M1 z# R% T0 p! `存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% d& G  L# _6 w6 h' k7 k# ]鉴定完毕！

/ l& I6 A3 f) F: u( r' p# k1 q呵呵，太不专业了吧。
4 p  C. d! M2 V* I- r1 l; ]4 j! Z
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
( ?+ D: t  @1 X$ f
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
1 y- c3 ?$ i! h$ m( T% @0 G* h
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& D. i8 M9 _5 o" X: i

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' X% R: v: g: _8 L: q. O. K

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
7 z4 c; ?8 m  P0 K7 j; T( kIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
2 C3 j% [) [8 |; V' Y1 h% UIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

4 c! C- H0 h) Q0 Q( m) R
8 K+ Z4 j. K9 A; A" R+ V5 v0 v5 ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
8 T+ y% d5 q" U% e$ V$ zIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
' C. }! _& E$ ~; K% B) fNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

8 D" G8 u! y# f- l
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

6 y' ]) E* i. F2 E

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
2 F! M( Z& I4 B7 x9 R3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

/ ?. a" M+ p: }
0 z" j8 \4 q% W下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
9 T9 H( i  ~! L9 v
/ h/ B: {) ^6 M8 Q3 V

' B! i8 @) @; ?只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
# z+ ]9 z# z0 a看来，观察days inventory 更重要。