Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
& {* V/ x( t! X3 \6 n0 i. s6 [" nIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

! [% G' y6 B+ d; r4 KOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
8 X3 O) `8 k' ]" b: Z, B
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
" y8 D7 v$ ?4 b, O* X& j
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
. q6 B3 j* `9 a7 h
% j( l3 n4 a: H( ~Jul 2007
) h2 ~/ e+ B2 t' U1 s" i# ?2 o+ P NA
; [6 V3 c: V+ ?0 R 2328
5 z5 I( g- e- n+ H6 D% h 717
442,752
- l. Z' `) g7 C1 r1 a* f/ B 410,000
320
28
31%
9 T3 L4 s# [" ]5 j; {9 L" A/ c
# L1 W0 f9 O/ I. U, y- c% V1 A* SJun 2007
0 v6 q8 i6 t$ X" i. {2 U# l NA
& `; ?; y' H* ~- Z 2661
1011
442,817
2 E* F9 \" V( D( i  ? 409,000
. W4 k2 p) h5 D+ a+ k' U0 T 328
+ D7 T0 A3 c& T7 d( l* I 22
38%
+ Z. q0 P2 {, j; D) h0 V
May 2007
NA
2288
- c+ {" u% U2 b( i. {, L 1261
- a* U/ G+ h1 f6 u6 o- S 451,216
9 n, L6 [6 _' ~ 415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& g" X& c, C4 p4 y9 F鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
/ s) j% x2 e& s5 I, Z3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 n- ^" r6 N! Z鉴定完毕！

+ j* o1 ], d* y( A& X- A* Y6 `呵呵，太不专业了吧。
3 L) d7 `& V7 y4 T! A- O) x+ Z
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
9 r' y% \# ~! R0 s( t# o
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

7 P/ g8 ~$ d  g& G+ D2 }/ J7 d4 \

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
3 n1 T$ d- m, D. P) YDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
) S; I) h8 s! Q$ {0 P! DHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
( I3 t6 v( E. U0 c% zIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( r# D7 u* _! dHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
! ?4 m, m8 z1 |9 G$ bEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 b4 {0 @/ l# p* O& }# }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

  |, _" E; Z: H% mQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
2 d3 `; e* }9 X3 d; X, M

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
+ r" X* E- u! W7 Y( N& \1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: e4 p( Y, ?  R# y4 b8 t; I2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

( H0 o# v: I1 [1 x  s下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
! I' T" |1 Y* x" j' ^' |; k
  X+ t. d' a9 v% N; D
" W1 O6 c. q& W& X% h
! l3 f# s$ ]; _; Y只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。