Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
; w4 K6 u, d. r  [1 `% }# @1 r' gMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
& b! n1 L! s. a* I2 TNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

" A/ `. R1 w0 N8 Y$ A' ESep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
- ^) @! d5 Q7 `' i1 e4 V4 ?* ^7 B 717
% o2 F7 g! g* A. D* x 442,752
- g+ X5 o! q1 }: ` 410,000
! k- S: g6 w; @, e0 k6 N 320
28
& O2 W3 a# a$ H% [) R 31%
0 A, B& b9 C7 [# X: t) |8 G7 r
3 e  e: }9 l: `8 cJun 2007
; ?0 H* x9 n, Z' Y7 u NA
2661
1011
442,817
409,000
  Z7 \6 |% T6 f 328
0 A7 e0 q. ?8 \ 22
) V* Z6 }  Q9 Z& j6 f7 ?" O 38%
# T; H( `0 q. l
& Q6 }9 h) U# v/ `8 u5 ?May 2007
# j9 f( ^3 T# l; j: b& s NA
8 r* {+ w6 `# ]8 w- E, A; Y 2288
1261
0 i+ n. [3 |; [& w 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! f0 O2 e) h! W8 q7 q5 I鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
) P7 [3 y/ h. `( m: l0 c1 `( I3 E3 L6 h这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
3 x  A7 G% g  l5 q, t存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
/ `7 m8 h% d' ~鉴定完毕！

- v8 b$ m/ x" T5 H% l4 P用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
. G7 O: x# X9 {: q4 M2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 ]' w' j$ w$ [9 O$ G1 B鉴定完毕！

7 @3 S) e' X- V0 V: a% f9 E6 z5 i! d
: T' s, ^1 Z, B$ \' M5 O# j呵呵，太不专业了吧。
5 E1 N- j% y0 G$ A( H
; @3 G! {& l6 m7 c# h新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

( |7 n* F- Z1 o/ ]1 [8 w) G7 C8 p就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
; i4 y3 l9 g+ u9 a9 D
. m: G8 @* G6 a; u9 A这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ }( P9 q/ U, J3 |. ADon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

6 d# H9 h( k  l. ]- ]! o/ }
/ ]  Z! e6 _  n/ R

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
  e' T. E. Q: U' MDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" M* d# l" _  [2 t  D$ LIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
: D7 K( ]* C, F; lHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
2 E3 t& k% U4 Q  d. EThat is what i say half full or half empty.
* P* ]+ [! I$ ]0 @( Kgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
0 c2 G+ U; D6 A+ d& N2 C( ?- ?0 }In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

: _0 O5 Z( y( x' w) _6 y
" j0 J% H' i& a4 k! wI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
4 G' k+ x) G# S0 \9 {8 V4 gMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
7 V0 s2 a+ H8 K$ e8 oNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

' e7 }) l  e6 b3 q5 pQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


# C3 K" R' Y: G. mI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
! U2 _# e. c" O  q; p5 x2 ]% T' i- C1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
% z' z8 Z- Y/ }1 T5 u/ e- T2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

0 ~5 {+ A6 Q  J: L. Z下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

6 B" t9 z! t* N4 g: P

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。