Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
4 w. c' z4 H0 w
: J' t' D$ }- p! T1 ZDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

! i5 \7 K0 e) H3 vSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
: X1 j; W6 H6 Q( M
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
) o3 w' c% j7 S# E! [0 e; ~4 c4 O 2328
5 {) c0 r% m& ~' T2 }% a4 Y9 z 717
442,752
410,000
  Z2 E$ s- N0 l9 k; U 320
2 k7 p8 S$ P; v  X' I& z9 S+ t) }" k 28
31%
% s3 }4 g" {" |* v
Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
442,817
5 j, t0 I1 |' C/ q9 U* c 409,000
328
, u5 }* c1 L* `& ^' X6 I( I" r 22
38%

May 2007
4 A( k0 n3 C0 c, ?4 k NA
2288
! A/ j$ C% U# e2 V+ H2 ?* ]" T2 F 1261
451,216
1 w4 H1 I& e+ O9 H4 P: E 415,000
2 k2 W- l0 L% W7 f: l: y 322
& ?2 g( V0 Q$ p' Z 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
; W0 y( E3 Q+ P1 t+ Q" b  `存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

6 O# v& z; c2 |) p# A
( n4 r* s. x  F- C1 L& y2 ]+ x用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: N, i) {3 r( O0 D0 b2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
: e% q& E/ H8 o0 r* k3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
5 L% j( g' q& ]! Z& `) k0 I+ |3 L鉴定完毕！

& @) R7 ?* t5 \1 V* g" F- [
  M4 |; f( @4 h, J呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
5 p! b1 y( `- l; G$ _$ o
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

' b; b, t; q+ E这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
# m( w: A4 }1 x' N$ L$ A' [6 ?; HDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% H& U% i* t. ~

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
/ t. G( `' J# A: M8 w/ wDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

1 p- R5 `) d' }; g5 S

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
& ?6 n2 A4 B1 {" r8 Y) p) e2 oHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
, @# N. ~' M& o3 V1 \good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
5 f" d% K% ~8 v) S$ v+ Z! wIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' S: `5 \: K" m  Z) J4 y; \, QHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

$ @& B' r. i& d; ?" O8 l
, u3 F9 ?7 }' M0 QI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
1 s5 F! p2 O1 p5 T+ |9 u9 MEdmonton Single Family Home
1 K5 k% g& F, ^) Y) x' E! YMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ X! S4 y$ }- y* ^Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
9 y* b, f! g1 l# xNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
" T) {, Z, l5 R. b! @! ]0 d1 @
, v0 q  F$ n- |. ~
$ u: X' ^5 ]% f# Z9 Y" ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

2 {; @% ^, h1 O/ y, n下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



1 r3 C6 C  m+ f& T/ T9 l! m% q只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。