Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
$ p+ y8 m1 |" M: @0 V( JNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
* y3 e" M% ~4 p5 b# C7 S' gTD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
8 M% Y  p* l) y; l) d4 G1 m) lRBC can give you 4.0%.
& B1 {9 |" }! C(Roughly)
" J: a& A  B6 G4 u0 l: {9 kIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
0 L9 y# [7 X/ u; g+ `& Z' |Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
# k& h$ `8 T. {1 HFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
0 _% A2 Y3 O: f6 gI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
  D, L) I$ n4 `
All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
/ z5 o  [' `6 V8 q' O3 _8 AWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
( B' ~1 K  d% SNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

3 S$ ~- Q+ `  E: R' B. r: u0 ]* u这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
, A9 {- j0 h/ n8 T' L2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
6 A' E5 W) V; n. a; f如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
1 z  c. c& a* H政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
  Y; F6 F% X* gBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

5 D5 y9 \; C) o2 X# c! o4 t呵呵，多打了个0。

5 f  F+ y9 y2 J3 {多谢。

, y4 W0 c! s2 n  X) e把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
/ `4 N# o  A  Q/ ]; y4 P, r如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
' ~- l' W4 F5 |0 Y/ r" x9 r& y8 o而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
8 [" G5 d" p# [, b政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

" ~: M) k% Y- p3 M. N; v现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
0 ^! {  u- Y- }还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
$ N7 h/ |5 ?- P3 f1 `& BUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]