卡加里 房地产4月份报告

音响神仙鱼

http://www.creb.com/media/stats_ ... tats-2007-april.pdf

音响神仙鱼

vs March 07
2 Y& ~1 E3 d/ D' ?price: 1.32% up
sales: 11.01% down
2 S. {3 @) h/ a) H/ I, ^new listing: 1.48% down

白水

逛逛

平凡人平常心

不管再高,好像还是在涨,怎么那么多有钱人呢

BaiLing

smalltown

原帖由 平凡人平常心 于 2007-5-1 20:57 发表
5 |, `2 y7 e6 D( F0 U" a2 G2 r& c不管再高,好像还是在涨,怎么那么多有钱人呢

) P  z; w5 H7 W# \Most people already have homes, so they just trade up without paying too much. The first time buyers suffer a lot, and most of them won't be able to afford a half million house. They will buy condos, so those condo owners will be able to buy a house with a little bit more extra money. The key to the market is first time buyers, who are people moving from other provinces and countries. Due to high cost of housing, the influx will be weaken, and it will have affect on the house market.

牛眼熊心

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-2 09:35 发表

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Most people already have homes, so they just trade up without paying too much. The first time buyers suffer a lot, and most of them won't be able to afford a half million house. They will buy ...

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& x3 {3 B- F# m: c2 x老兄分析得有一定道理, 但有一点观点值得商量. first time buyers 是对低价房的唯一推动力么?
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我看不是, 在牛市里要用牛眼来观察, 用牛脑来思维. 房子涨价了,收入提高了, 大家都有钱了, 由于对房子进一步涨价的预期, 很多人就会换房子, 这样会促进大房子的上涨, 同时有些人会拿余钱去投资小房子, 促使first time buyer的门坎越来越高. 这样会造成一个房地产市场从从低价房到高价房的"良性"循环, 推动它们一起上涨, 一直到一个新的平衡点.

MyFairy

smalltown

原帖由 MyFairy 于 2007-5-2 15:47 发表

The bull mraket won't last forever. The foolest people who get in the market last will cry.

QWE321

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-2 15:51 发表

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3 g; T8 ?; k/ N5 z- v7 U% ~* tThe bull mraket won't last forever. The foolest people who get in the market last will cry.

0 }- P7 J. D$ `. UYOU ARE VERY TRUE, BUT HOW DO WE KNOW WHO WILL BE LAST ?
LAST YEAR, LOTS PEOPLE IN THIS FORM ALREADY SAID "WAIT AND SEE", BUT CAN WE OFFER THE "WAIT"?

smalltown

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-5-2 16:11 发表
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7 p6 C1 u* K. A5 y, x) QYOU ARE VERY TRUE, BUT HOW DO WE KNOW WHO WILL BE LAST ?
LAST YEAR, LOTS PEOPLE IN THIS FORM ALREADY SAID "WAIT AND SEE", BUT CAN WE OFFER THE "WAIT"?

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Actually a lot of smart people are selling their invetment properties and are exiting from the market right now, they have made 100% profit in a couple of years. If you get into the market now, how much risk are you going to take and how much profit can you make?

QWE321

i am try to be smart, but sometimes i am wrong. i sold all my stock(Chinese) before Chinese new year, i thought all company need cash pay off projects before new year, then should have lots money pull out from stock. but i am very wrong!!!
6 K% w. W  w6 {this morning i heard from radio, still some developer paying very very high price for porperty beside lakes. i don't it is good or bad news. but for sure they are not save these lands for years years.

WST

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-2 16:30 发表

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6 f# i% |4 o0 a! \Actually a lot of smart people are selling their invetment properties and are exiting from the market right now, they have made 100% profit in a couple of years. If you get into the market no ...

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6 _3 P6 ~+ U. |8 H1 C* y" EThese smart people (who sell now) were foolish because they took the risk years ago.  For those who buy now may be smart years later.

smalltown

Your logic:
8 [' x1 r4 a, s7 c$ @No matter how high the prices, there is no any risk in the market.

牛眼熊心

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-3 11:35 发表
$ d3 a" F9 R+ P# E( B  V9 R2 QYour logic:
No matter how high the prices, there is no any risk in the market.

! x$ X" `0 E' r. ZAt lease, You both have one concept in common. The price will drop if it is too high.

/ {/ Q0 X2 \2 s* v$ \% ]9 a; n+ NThe only controversy is that whether the current price is high or relatively low.

eagle2007

even the smartest people were not able to figure out the price wave in the stock market.
2 j% n$ v' j# \sold out stock three months ago is not stupid.The real stupid thing for the trader is not bought back.  
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价格回头时候卖出价并不是错误，但是当上升趋势继续的时候不能买回这才是应该总结的

[ 本帖最后由 eagle2007 于 2007-5-3 14:43 编辑 ]

WST

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-3 11:35 发表
Your logic:
7 Z8 S# a# Q2 r" X- H1 j2 m; BNo matter how high the prices, there is no any risk in the market.

: a" h( a% Q+ N) I3 {
" J' H5 D5 M6 f7 F我的观点是：

1.        市场永远存在风险，no risk, no reward.
" l& G$ u$ c3 N6 v9 c* v2.        目前，虽然风险在不断增加，但期望的收益要比风险增加的快的多。
3 E0 @+ ~# D' }3 M, Z7 ?3 A3.        对于投资者来说，房市的风险主要在于投资者的素质和经验。有很多方法可以减少市场的风险。

RowlandSpring

妙在其中.

WST

原帖由 eagle2007 于 2007-5-3 14:41 发表
% M) W# p2 t# ]" r& `& reven the smartest people were not able to figure out the price wave in the stock market.
sold out stock three months ago is not stupid.The real stupid thing for the trader is not bought back.   ...

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/ Q* ~. w' @# z" }2 }人们易犯的最大的错误在于：

6 G+ Y1 z9 C8 ]1。牛市时不敢赚钱，熊市不愿认赔。
2。自以为聪明想逃顶，抄低，却并不具备这种功力。

牛眼熊心

原帖由 WST 于 2007-5-3 15:14 发表

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2 ]! c; r/ ?7 ~* q# t2 b+ e0 _0 E人们易犯的最大的错误在于：

6 ^& i) z- i( a1。牛市时不敢赚钱，熊市不愿认赔。
9 [5 e) m( ]/ n# j/ S2。自以为聪明想逃顶，抄低，却并不具备这种功力。

/ p8 n$ e' A4 W  @) K: Q) K. S. }
$ k$ M/ ?, N6 T3 Q4 J瓦晒, 不某而合.

) D- s4 _" q2 k$ Q$ j在上升的市场是任何时候买进都是对的, 下跌的市场中任何时候卖出都是对的....不适合短线.
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看看中国的股市, 想逃顶? 1500有人逃了, 2000有人逃了, 3000有人逃了....现在看来都是底. 2000点附近中国股市有次大跌, 逃的人暗暗庆幸, 但你如果后来不追回来就是严重失策了.
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Edmonton的房地产同样有中国股市那样的疯狂, 2005 到2006是大涨的一年, 有些人在2006年夏天就脱手了房子, 甚至于去租房子住, 他们再也没有机会原价买回了, 现在去看当时的房价何尝不是很便宜. 2007年夏天呢? 短暂的slow down也许会发生, 但卖房子的人是别认为可以逃顶.

eagle2007

原帖由 WST 于 2007-5-3 15:14 发表

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* w6 G; _5 \+ v4 ?人们易犯的最大的错误在于：

. B4 m  _9 X# U: Q1。牛市时不敢赚钱，熊市不愿认赔。
  S* @+ J2 ]- R5 L# r2。自以为聪明想逃顶，抄低，却并不具备这种功力。

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1. 无论牛熊,在发展的时候看不清楚，能看清楚时候到了末期. 90%人基本就是这个水平
2. 对于广大人民群众卖不到最高，买不到最低都是正常的.

kensu

yj151