Is there a house bubble in Edmonton?

smalltown

How to figure a home's fundamental value
5 d# T0 [7 y' _- `6 vLeamer says he can tell because homes, just like stocks, have a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) that he believes determines their fundamental value. The “earnings” part of the ratio consists of the annual rent the house could command. Homebuyers can compare current P/Es with historical levels, Leamer says, to get some idea of whether houses in their cities are becoming overvalued.
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3 Z" X2 u+ U! m0 Y9 x6 T' p! mNot everyone buys the idea that P/Es dictate value. But investors who completely ignore P/Es do so at their peril, as many have learned in recent years. Leamer, who heads the prestigious Anderson Forecast at the University of California in Los Angeles, points out that the P/E for the Standard & Poor’s 500, a key stock benchmark, was nearly double its previous historical high when the stock market bubble burst in 2000. When home P/Es peaked in California, Boston, Dallas and other markets in the mid-1980s, devastating real estate recessions followed.

" N1 N: j9 l0 i& Q+ CLeamer didn’t invent the concept of P/Es for homes. But his willingness to proclaim bubbles in several of the nation’s hottest markets has brought him lots of attention recently.
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( |% W( B' a0 G! m! Q: E. q. `To calculate P/Es for entire cities, Leamer divided the median home price in each by the annual rent for a two-bedroom unit in each city -- and looked at P/Es each year since 1988. Here’s what he found:

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In Boston, the residential real estate market’s P/E recently topped 30 -- compared with just under 20 in 1988.
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San Francisco’s previous peak of 25.6 in 1989 has been eclipsed, with the P/E currently at just over 27.
! Y. }( Q( w% y6 _8 ?San Diego’s current P/E is nearly 30, compared with a 1989 high of 23.4.
/ m  O2 V% |9 BNew York, by contrast, is actually well below previous peaks. The area’s current 22.5 P/E is above its recent nadir of 17.6 in 1993, but down from 28.6 in 1988.
% C# u" S2 h2 E0 c, Z# f/ LYou don’t have to know exact P/Es, however, to spot signs of trouble, Leamer says. Any time there’s a disconnect between prices and the underlying value of homes, as measured by their market rents, there’s the potential for a bubble.
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If home prices are rising much faster than rents, as is true in Los Angeles, that’s a strong indication a bubble is forming.
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  G1 k& A! z! J- _If home prices are rising while average rents are falling -- which is the situation in San Francisco -- the bubble is pretty much unmistakable.
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  D' p6 o  \& u+ n/ k Home P/E ratios for 9 metro areas
9 n, d' J+ R5 w2 u  C/ M* m+ }  | Avg. 1988-2000 2001
, n/ ^0 c. p4 q$ iBoston  20.5 30.2
% I  M: l8 j* SSan Diego  22.8 29.7
$ F% ^7 o8 a6 L& V+ ?San Francisco  23.8 27.2
Los Angeles  21.3 25.6
Seattle  20.4 25
2 Y( ^8 G: r) ?2 V8 d( v4 NDenver  17.7 23.7
0 I% n# G; N# ?7 c) |New York  21.2 22.5
+ d3 U7 q8 |* lChicago  17.2 20.8
6 ^/ h0 f* ^& g4 R' |& f- y, {3 QWashington, D.C.  17.1 20.4
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* ]9 v- ^: s5 g; NIt's difficult to compare P/Es from one city with those from another. P/Es in Atlantic City, N.J., have wavered between 17.3 and 11.6 since 1988; in San Diego, P/Es have not dropped below 20. But you can look on the P/E as a measure of risk -- that is, the higher the P/E is above its average level, the greater the risk, no matter where you live.

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From: http://moneycentral.msn.com/cont ... ingguide/P37631.asp

CANDYMAN

Who has the P/E for Edmonton for the last 20 years, please post it here.
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  Z5 K$ i. z3 T2 f# ~8 K- hit would be a good reference.
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thanks

醉酒当歌

20% buble at least. And it can take 3-5 years to digest the bubble if not burst.
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+ ~5 L- \' c! i: }2 I4 U[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2007-1-14 16:41 编辑 ]