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5 k3 q! U+ f$ V9 K2 T Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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) N, `+ _; y, m F) b& ? In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.- W; y4 l% a3 D6 ~( T3 Q4 f
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1 d h8 W# D r# T& r' h7 ]# F* c1 s* xThu, January 11, 20072 v3 V! q7 d( t# T* ^1 V4 b) }
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007! p% u9 l' I$ f) C9 g1 E
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN3 P- h$ s7 _) T! u
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. % k4 z4 L! O. L( J/ X& k
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 1 ~% o' T. q3 k O
+ c6 `1 @5 ^' m a) f8 V( r7 |But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. % ], k7 c2 D/ Q5 V) I& M c. K
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7 ]& _" Q( X N" a! e7 y"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ! M) N1 y1 T4 ]0 L* F0 E
2 J; k6 d/ w- _% B- p+ }$ u0 R0 J3 FShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 5 I+ P( I2 P& o5 a
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. , C2 X, I, K9 h! ?) Y& p
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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/ ?* K/ J0 C8 x2 E7 E"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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( x% t$ K% X) f"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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5 C( g5 I! J, v" @% R1 B* e) _NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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2 C# f. z( z! L0 sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ; [* w7 w) O9 C% P0 C3 c
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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) v# }1 L1 k& l6 IOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. W! X" |# H0 N( A. m2 i/ q% l
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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; n: Z+ l5 K$ [% q @* zSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. + Z7 C1 f9 D% s" m
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 7 B* l% Y) P3 b
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. ' i' s! ~! B1 z' m3 S5 R1 ]
/ v, h9 E3 r+ oPrevious story: Bottom Line
& o" r6 e% U5 w3 `Next story: Building permits hit record( R# M( X% `) l! [" l7 V
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