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$ r7 Q: y* o( Z Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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( @9 X9 O5 x, u. j1 u6 xThu, January 11, 2007
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! n; ?. x% e& G6 r8 \7 v- BPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007- e# L) L q$ W8 X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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+ ~, t$ m: A3 Q$ ~$ q/ {3 GThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. # R) a" w9 f6 g) u1 T, A
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ) X5 [7 u1 \1 H q6 i+ @
" |$ _9 u! g% U6 F" eBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. % T, B& M$ ^1 F* a, u
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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" ^4 k8 [' }8 j) N" CCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. + n7 t/ N9 w4 X6 p2 D2 y- L; D
7 \2 |" H' F0 X+ J"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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4 _1 ~! [$ O; ~; d0 {( a; q* `Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 6 D+ |* }3 N( U, V/ Z% y5 b3 U
; E0 ^ E6 ]/ g"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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: B- Z3 P7 O+ I" N"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' J. ?3 Z8 G# m
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." : S0 ` D; l8 ^7 `; U# E
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. % A9 B# d7 ^3 N( r4 I
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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" O2 L, b- y& K g! d, |His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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5 F& R* B0 N5 m"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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9 |4 s1 i& m2 { J8 o8 \' z" B9 ~So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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( c/ ~3 v0 J- T# HYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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2 c: ?% ]7 [8 J+ W! }' T4 WLet the good times roll.
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5 [7 P g% P0 JPrevious story: Bottom Line8 N0 T4 C: @% e! y( g
Next story: Building permits hit record: M5 k; r/ ~+ a$ W) t
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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