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$ ~9 F8 N; V4 N, j+ O* { Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com6 A$ ^% d% `- X; H' Y5 a: j4 Z ~8 X
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2 E% k5 J, K {9 FThu, January 11, 2007
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6 R/ P' V9 a# h0 P9 {* APrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20079 [: r# o/ p% m. R) z' K
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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: @! C% [5 W5 p4 {& v. a$ | @& FThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. & f' M1 }* J* S% @4 Y, @. ?
r' Y) x T- n/ cMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. # t5 e+ M5 P( b' L& ^% M' x
" C# e7 ]2 _# J& SBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 4 ~) n. G% }3 d4 }2 r$ o
/ W5 D4 X' \8 w2 f9 O! xDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 0 K) V2 X$ U& C( t r7 I0 ^8 O
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ! [# J( A( Z; L4 R* z9 d
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." : I5 I7 X+ x2 f3 f, j: N' |
, G8 {+ O( X9 c `" eShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 6 d+ Y! S9 h% ]6 c
1 i7 X) j$ j/ S1 ^' V# t"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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$ p$ ~! J* W# XCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 5 s/ m* K/ T @& c6 U1 F( O7 }9 z
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. , ]( k8 h% i1 c- [9 S \# ^% K n% A
1 l% O1 n! P: N# Q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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. c y2 P' Y: Y: a1 b: z"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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, {* D+ q$ ^0 d# lHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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; d1 i: Y% b3 b, yOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 2 r5 n, ?; N2 C6 p9 F {$ T" u
$ o2 `" N! l1 _# s"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ' C2 \) T. c8 H# ?, O- x2 H
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Let the good times roll.
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: Z5 x! k) N' h6 NPrevious story: Bottom Line& r$ [# L1 H4 s. P% t$ E% Z" O
Next story: Building permits hit record
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