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+ ?1 H) l& X7 {; L6 D6 w. L Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 20070 h+ M5 X% H0 Q9 y8 h
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 d- g, K( w$ ^4 z4 {* f+ P
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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2 f$ X/ W2 F& h& C' @Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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1 ~1 ~% x6 q+ F. cBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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6 |; _2 W7 y& `% b7 S+ m7 M; DDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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8 S0 e/ b2 ]) i6 ~* `2 n"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 8 X; Y! Q5 \ z2 f) |# G9 ^
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ \2 `/ ^2 \3 _% f0 Q4 k# z
( {1 N4 B5 W6 b' I% n% D: o5 ?"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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6 K" ^9 t( b7 K3 b C# `Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. : m: e& E: ~" H- G C; m: p8 l
Q4 D! K" l& z" ?) i) e"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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3 m/ E0 d$ T( ?- N8 M7 f) D Z"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 1 k. A: S9 ~) T; [( T" u8 V+ u
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 o; k! |& L& w+ s" o+ a, _
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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2 `9 R g5 t, V1 G2 h# QHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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5 L0 P) l* U V: c' `) h"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. . ^% w% [! w6 X* m
+ b3 `% z) @3 c0 y7 LSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 2 Q" T# v: Z8 m% J4 ]
) @2 t+ ?4 X3 Y$ S1 M" p ?2 SYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. \% i0 T+ S; M+ _* q
, o' I# ^9 h9 M( K6 o/ n"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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, m% a/ g: P, M2 z6 q9 F0 R; YLet the good times roll.
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Next story: Building permits hit record
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