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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com; i, }+ J# P: F/ e: d& X
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5 H5 j5 g( R# X0 O( M( [Thu, January 11, 20077 t0 Z) b" U! w2 m( a
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20070 w4 z% V, @4 B: }4 Z: i
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ( G' t6 C3 T) @# A. N6 T1 R
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 8 f8 R3 N2 p% t3 F- H0 f3 O( }
4 {/ g$ l) L9 I" MBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 5 c+ x9 v7 Q K. E
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ' t' A1 ]3 _6 L) L# b
) G8 Z; w; C1 t. ~She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ! a3 L. ~7 K% o0 M
* J0 [( ^* ^4 f+ F2 D& ?"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. & D* [9 f c: f
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. d' R9 h) W% \( z' I! z4 y
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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+ w1 y+ W6 }$ X8 sStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. " Z( u5 {! E. s# Q6 Y* U" H4 a
/ A, O7 W; [1 d/ s( m; f"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. & n k5 d$ M; N& m
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. $ S/ x0 I2 l% a7 [
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 1 u5 f+ ~7 D R
- ?: b$ [0 ~/ c& D9 y) |! P KHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 d* G: w. u) N- |3 j/ m
* z0 x* e6 r8 ?8 X) {% K! X; `. S" ZOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ; x% b: _0 ^7 t& n( D# c
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. & k1 V k u' q6 P9 P
9 M0 ?$ y8 m$ n5 h# G( mSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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- {2 e* O v/ w u# hYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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! j1 f8 a1 c5 O/ `"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : [9 G/ @/ H! e+ W6 P) _: X
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Let the good times roll.
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- o; j! f0 S' D) B* b/ t5 MPrevious story: Bottom Line
$ _3 O! f; `3 O2 M" k$ gNext story: Building permits hit record$ \/ B0 T) }" m0 ~7 }
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