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$ z8 n, s; ^% f2 o4 J1 V4 m Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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, O6 K$ J2 r: s! p% ]! JThu, January 11, 2007
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6 k" t5 k1 O4 Y1 \, oPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
2 W T, }# v4 ?# Z/ ~By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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. Y" y5 g1 a7 M8 H/ {: eThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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6 e y4 J1 C* D, p; MMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 7 v( N" j4 |' L# O7 w
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. / t% ?( |. c& |& r
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. # {, e* u0 a O( q6 l" j
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9 ]0 C5 p# L$ Q) A& g"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 1 Y; s/ t/ P; r
" S7 A" u4 D3 F& A7 \3 ]9 xShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ) h+ V. C3 E; K$ e
& K% K' B/ t! F' I5 Q6 F& N8 E+ ]% H"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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$ @* l# d2 n8 b( d4 v, j y( T9 gCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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7 ?" i. |4 q# Y5 n( ^"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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1 n7 T* d( `8 {& f/ R" L/ K"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ( Q3 I% j% S+ l! n
( x( ]: w7 O, \- j% O) k"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 0 Q- a4 N$ G( @
- S9 [" Y% B. z" [, vNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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; X7 m- F F0 [- J3 N, dHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 8 ~. J" e2 q- _* f7 N
+ i7 M* _4 G1 k. R+ ~Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. , V1 b* C7 V/ O- z3 D
D' J: }* ?( D) j4 iOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. # k- O7 v/ w; G- G2 }+ Q
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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* ?2 h a4 N/ @! A"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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3 h+ N6 |% T) ~Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 8 w1 r6 v. X7 M( s7 r7 f4 k
" R3 N4 c. B2 `6 j1 w"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. . Q5 |$ n# | Y; @: i
3 o# u5 L0 @; a# I7 N6 _% vLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line0 G) @6 N w+ `3 e
Next story: Building permits hit record
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