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) E+ t6 o- f2 LThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
" o5 k m" t" J3 G) D0 y6 ABy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN/ Q. m9 s) M, N
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: B9 l6 n: F8 B+ {They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. / j' v, E. V# c+ P; L3 D7 |$ P
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ; { b9 I; K2 b" o
9 g; W3 ?$ ?% k2 YBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. # Q8 T/ |0 \) E4 y8 D+ g1 v
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 9 v* e$ h$ b) m
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' 6 J7 {2 z; B1 O) s, k/ ]
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ) I! l; q& u1 Y( B/ G! o/ e
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ) m$ B8 r/ P6 H$ y" e4 A! {
) G7 H! g* z& D. r; {"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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8 R4 G; h, f& e" B( R vCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. * x5 W. E, [( G
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 3 _' s7 m3 ~$ f0 J ]
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ( H p: Z _/ D1 F) \* j# ?
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. # o! r3 d% V: d$ K \
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. , C; U- n$ w$ {" S7 m
: h: C0 j* c# e$ `/ ^" Z% k# e$ A6 S"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ! W' a' X- W7 |) F2 ^
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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# @& b5 c# B6 t' S$ ~; T; [; g' lExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. " D$ `! F0 [8 }: }# u: W
& A+ }! ^9 w8 H$ Y7 n5 k- @, Q# IOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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) i& ]; Z& [+ q"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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% O! P1 W6 A0 z% A8 f2 i+ W+ nSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 R' M5 {7 W8 r X4 x" U# ` ~4 b( E
Y; K) d* r2 a( sYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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( v8 L1 ^6 ~ i/ nLet the good times roll. 2 D. C, G8 u7 `2 n
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