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5 \& D; l+ w$ ^8 n7 D# fThu, January 11, 2007+ l0 l( A8 k% k/ R; `$ z
$ m, {' V) ^4 n7 k: \4 R2 `Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007 y( f Y( L3 ?6 }8 |
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN a1 Z6 F2 Z9 u Z2 p7 `: O+ Q( y! v
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5 P8 G& k* T* r5 SThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ; l$ B) X& u! {
3 e+ ^5 X! @9 t$ Q3 A; n7 nBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 7 X# l8 n/ Z7 T+ r1 |
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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|' y, w- K, G0 X( h'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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$ Z, a0 A0 s9 B7 N8 F; _"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 0 f6 F# I3 t! R# H9 F' m- x3 ]
0 |- ~( l# ]/ ^ c8 g! F"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 7 a! A) S( m7 j: d4 k9 u1 D
) s% ~* H l0 L" I/ \& _/ m. VCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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* C6 \' D/ E- J# e# V, S$ WStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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, V5 K" d0 T! G# Q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. * T1 v K) n( j% Z2 A/ D
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 1 m" _. `" @0 j2 a
; \3 b! j0 x& g# i"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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: c* }* ^/ U8 m+ q2 k6 g# [NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ) J5 ?# d- O4 m7 |( u5 \
+ d5 t/ W4 y5 u8 f( w% yHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. & q: d1 u% q: G, A3 a
6 E" z$ f! q _! AOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 2 d5 L2 ^4 R3 b8 b
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 6 z* {0 |# c4 ?$ A. v: C+ D. f
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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+ m, n8 j6 {0 {So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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& p' `8 z# h/ L/ o% ^3 ]Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. - G9 T1 M2 h `0 x1 x' ^
; M* z" q2 L$ h/ S: k9 A"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. - j+ _. K, M5 Y8 A7 s
( a4 H& G; m& _! tPrevious story: Bottom Line
3 f! ? _2 T, i+ M8 l# vNext story: Building permits hit record
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$ U9 F+ U- T! |- ]5 } This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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