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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.& X0 v+ B' d6 I; r; `0 c8 J6 L
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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.8 H/ j8 ~ i' N/ V
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Why might it be a good time to sell?* ~1 M: p/ n5 h
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.: l x& M* }4 c- y5 k# ^
* P% U5 h: d" g2 _. y( }"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.& U- G7 Y% g9 N7 o1 f0 e' H0 H
' N7 R* f; Q7 X"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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+ r. |0 X% l! YThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.& e( G% e/ R4 q3 R( Q8 l. L- _5 L
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians. P" ]0 i* X& ^3 ~, b0 y
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Burleton knows how they feel.( D8 l! s! U- r8 s- H8 L( ^
, v d q |& i$ {( e"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.! O2 h0 ~* E; H. J) t2 [
* s" f" g1 [3 f- z$ K4 |While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way., Z( M2 _4 N2 O1 Z
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.+ `- }- l, Z& u$ a7 I' w/ X N
$ a# E- F" B6 `, d6 h7 NAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.) t. L) b6 `: Q0 ~% _) T6 \
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.' P1 H: k) `& L& M1 s4 j2 a
r7 D: d( y* Q% A- R* oDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.6 U# A/ Q7 p l8 u; q% U8 f' }
. F5 }5 }6 q) m! s4 M0 g: \"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.% L5 [( L! }) ~% M) C
1 ^" L, r- ?' c: y& C"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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* p4 d# L! r+ P) ~3 V3 U. C0 t, oThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.% ]3 U- r( F `4 w
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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