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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.0 F, Z3 G5 I; n2 i: m5 J7 i
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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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) p+ E, u" Q, }( M- y4 ]6 g3 ~OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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Why might it be a good time to sell?% \, O4 R7 _/ z) h, W4 z Y) \1 T
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop. F5 \7 W0 o/ _$ |
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.) e- x$ q: K$ a0 z2 D" B
% H- {. |3 B+ bBurleton knows how they feel.) H! p0 E% P- G$ q3 K% [
) x* u# N+ E" K- J) C3 n"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.0 N+ }) h* `9 b( C
% [& B; O' \2 N6 X6 GWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way./ F$ c4 V7 O$ z
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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0 U2 E3 N( D! p; x* `- ]8 A% O$ WAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.4 G% A+ T5 V& G! A* h' y% j* w
* O: D- H& E: y! c/ n* z- V! IMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world. ~4 l0 S$ A$ i8 j- \
8 ^# E2 |, c6 \$ wThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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9 V4 x& T1 F3 z) _! W' WDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said." b( V& a$ }0 h2 W! P& g0 f; \5 s
. j! w% ~' b" f9 K; k; x"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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3 @* V. k2 v4 H& A7 a# bThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.7 @3 w% n$ f, c7 U9 P+ V
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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