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3 }& D2 S4 h7 ?# Lhttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.6 w7 l% d7 J+ u% I
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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* {% {$ S) _2 A+ W8 `* z' N. RWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.& i+ Y* i7 C3 r4 }; q* {; \
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.8 ~0 O# J* U: e
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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* U* F# V2 F+ I3 cThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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/ J. A3 x0 b- U x3 T7 u OOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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0 v; ?: i. b: T6 D) g. D" xBurleton knows how they feel.8 i8 i9 U% ?8 G& J7 T: l
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said." h; E" D" `/ J; D, h
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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8 _! a& z9 k* L9 @( L7 e- J/ |; sAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.; q4 {# k! ]9 i1 L
2 f% X8 ~% j M* U4 K7 x" uIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.2 R9 w" b, Z2 e$ }: Y
* `* h8 p+ S n- P: {: eMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.9 L8 p6 s; |1 F
9 z5 }& b N& }, D( k7 s2 T3 FThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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9 m# M: r9 W: D# _% t' _% I8 i T4 IDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.# z; N, k" Z6 [6 k A' |- V& O
" L4 n& j# z) d, r' V! k1 ^) N"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.8 r+ A, S o z% f! B0 G& o# J' {) f) i
4 N' E v' V$ e v0 ^7 SBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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