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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html8 K, h: A+ L, g
3 V* f8 Y+ s+ @& H/ ]1 F9 vOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.* L9 J9 L+ D3 B$ M6 I$ X
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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: [* e0 E$ R9 GIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment./ ^; q: Q- \6 {5 B' c; F
4 [5 J% L( ?2 [" s3 sWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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5 Z9 G+ I' |. EAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.5 v4 E. n7 K$ n0 y" j
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.8 f: M0 T% |5 Z1 B2 o4 w
4 G/ N) J+ ^" h+ j9 t1 E' s- a) v"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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0 C5 P, |6 B/ l& x$ _/ AThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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Burleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.1 J; @4 d4 q, @" z
) u" M" O! |) @7 `While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.- X8 o2 k \' K9 F- y5 o3 X
! b5 t+ y% E& @8 TWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.' f7 u2 Y1 k3 @% F$ Z# p2 l
+ j7 {+ b K: |9 }# V9 L/ FAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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/ j' [3 _! [+ N8 ?% p"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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- _" g4 I3 I( @! H Z"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act." _* a: g% C' t2 m) ?+ y: [$ y
- }7 L6 H% c' g$ D( x i* TBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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