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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.& }2 j3 D1 r7 R3 W( D
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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html: Z) f/ k! \" n- o3 m
3 H! R+ f# r/ @$ m' ~! T3 xOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak. V+ m3 a$ @: h4 c
, H; z! h- x' uIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.1 h$ T" K" s0 t6 f1 d5 m6 K/ a4 @
6 n2 n8 M7 M, IWhy might it be a good time to sell?- K1 P1 X, _; s1 c2 k
/ i# z1 L' H! X1 o# ~3 YAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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8 p7 U" ~& j1 Q6 Z. ^" A$ l"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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# N. z, ?4 \0 u5 G$ f3 K4 V"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop." F" a) C3 w; n5 I
/ ]( i/ P* k, X; NThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower./ S" i9 y% I5 A
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.8 ^, U- j7 B& g t8 p" W0 f
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Burleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.0 E" g4 `& ]- A: e, I
3 n% Z9 `0 o: \While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.; K: l/ p+ x% K
) @$ Z7 S0 ~. H& y6 [$ @3 Q4 }' P; FWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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( f& }, ~ k3 X) w/ F# pAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate., H* k5 J7 }$ m, l1 b
3 S% c3 v$ U# j; q$ JIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.1 z" V! n$ x3 X' D; Q ^
5 T& y. U. @" n7 ~2 l' IMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.* S2 g+ [: ]# g, i. G( G
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.0 V, x5 e! `6 K- s( D1 v$ _' X
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.( Z2 Z; b( J: g: ^ w* k" Q. T0 p; ^) W
/ B! j) _) x* z: N# L7 g"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.7 I! e( U! M) e+ v
# ?5 I! V P7 P2 W: ?' i7 ?But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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