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0 t3 ?/ P# v/ Y" |0 h; w Ehttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html' ^2 w, l" m* v( [# K9 G! M
9 A7 ~( }1 g' d& [ ROTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping., o+ S6 i/ @6 i% h1 I
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.3 O3 J/ q$ v0 _- }4 V* o
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.) F% T! W( _, \8 _% G2 S
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Why might it be a good time to sell?& c/ F9 k- h8 V. t7 w4 \ i
3 Z4 B; @) q, x& a; I1 VAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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. E3 y6 C% p6 A% R. c"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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' B, w' C$ g1 Q5 w6 q- b+ W"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.$ V3 ~$ U. f" H6 }- ]6 u
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.9 ?- v+ U1 G6 I* b9 e
' _9 y9 i6 s- Y/ l# rOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.- Y3 l, s# Y1 C7 A/ s
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Burleton knows how they feel.) i( Q# Z2 C% f8 i( C
5 B/ O9 A" k2 W: e"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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2 d3 N' t3 x* G- W+ |2 k8 T% EWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years. {* c4 ]1 r! b7 z8 @4 ?& E
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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8 i3 d4 q( d/ A* C) c8 _) |In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.2 t$ @& @ [" }
1 g, {6 K) R7 ?- v8 XThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.; o5 [/ Z5 o( p- `( q' ^ P$ w
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.* n8 a+ r, V8 ^+ G/ m& G
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said./ c$ H" z: ~) b" m3 V
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."4 b! c6 O+ w5 K/ b
2 R/ \* Z, E0 G e3 {The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.% a4 L+ h( U# m5 j/ c5 L
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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