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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.- D j) D7 T" O' H8 q$ N
! Q2 m, \* s, D' N- I& J! i, I/ `http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.3 P. E: _6 s6 w- }8 U
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.- w( R' L" j$ T) @; ~7 s
: W* u: X) X9 ~) t8 t+ zIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.% ~7 `2 s0 g! }3 ]1 V+ @! j
5 H1 _5 ]! u! M0 _; HWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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2 F3 {* w7 L( J2 U% i! ZAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.: n: w! s% I2 w; x
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.) S8 t3 l2 p9 G
* e2 S5 i" J3 b, M8 B7 c5 X% CThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.% O2 j0 C* W( x0 W
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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7 o: y& T* N% O, I" }1 e# y( JBurleton knows how they feel. ~) n M2 J8 U q" L! w, {! e
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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, b2 N: n3 Z7 x( B9 HAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.& @2 [2 R" |; S* {
2 D& w0 j" E$ O* y6 d3 bIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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- b$ F$ N8 [. f/ d! q- cMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world., U4 s/ {2 l- s" L
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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5 n* L4 a. g) \9 \! H5 v' S" wDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.' `2 ~; [# ]. Q r5 F8 b
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."7 }2 T( Z- X4 R
$ h! V% K* U/ dThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.6 V/ Z2 ^# @8 x$ r2 N
( U1 N" a6 \; I' Y, bBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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