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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 X; y$ S) j9 L. V3 d1 Q. r3 r+ t+ I
Market Commentary& ]; ~5 L7 c3 {* F
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 W+ X5 u  K) Q) n5 F' [James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: r/ U+ n9 l' d* B# U6 C0 {
Signature Global Advisors7 V$ R% y6 p+ Z6 [! k: H
- ]' [6 J, G8 c1 {, \( M& E

! j9 J8 y3 L$ i) u1 ]Background remarks
/ V9 p- u/ ^% @% }0 U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 [' i5 m1 R" V' A6 eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& Q; c; U* U( b Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 e3 ]0 d5 o4 z! n
adjustments.! ^( X" b0 O$ ^' T- a4 H9 D" [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! Z! V  t5 {; U* M6 @
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" F5 T7 u; A4 y7 L! K$ b0 }1 S/ r. p Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are- ^# _# d, G( S, V- P: z; v& k
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 p" I8 o4 ^7 N# l0 }' v
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 i! J& I* r3 a( padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.' m  i$ @* |) v, \7 p0 O" Y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( j9 P) l# \5 L# Q/ qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 M: H4 U# H$ O Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: n2 \$ ~1 M) S: Q3 ~. b1 U
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; D" O2 Q8 E! \5 B: V: M9 Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 l+ h; k7 U0 s2 R
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 q+ j8 Z" {8 c. N$ R( M0 |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 y1 X  R3 e' N, f9 t- |" fimpose liquidation values.
5 D  X* R8 t: Q) I* T3 S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' ?+ F8 C2 Y$ w+ U7 XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, S& Z& `% U, j5 H- _$ [7 D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# W+ o6 x9 w' [! D/ Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
" _& p8 a: l2 _2 Z" F! G" d# \- o
: f# n  ?3 S$ W' R% D' qA look at credit markets: r% z8 T! ^' g6 F
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 }" ^! k" S2 ?# a! ~# qSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% r6 S; `8 }0 j. E9 F7 i  g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
9 X* U: c' N, I' q# C) {9 ^/ @then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 |& R7 d' W5 G0 a( a7 w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ e; g& [' i, i( S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  y3 M- B# {/ f( }5 W% p3 BCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 I. z+ L# C$ Y) o; t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ Z* L3 A1 ]5 d% R' @& L Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble  J. H% Z4 H' P; d" s3 p1 l
finding financing.
/ \$ d8 w) ^$ j4 W, R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) f% ?1 P6 @+ K# z2 F
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  s; Z: L) T; m) N
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 O! d" \; C9 M# g3 V; Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- ]8 F4 {! U" e% m+ xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) F. G6 J( {( E3 u/ ]: {
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; Y" \2 p' j6 n& N
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 o" r2 b: g. i# w3 h! ]$ u
today.9 T8 d% p3 p/ c/ ?1 r3 L* B1 h
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 W- F4 C- R' v1 V
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 J1 _: R! N- x' p. q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) _' o: o: B" w) b4 g* |. B1 dthe Greek default.
0 C" |( Q: l: U) J' ?4 @- ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 a, k& s/ e3 D6 B9 r
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% u. v" W' S1 s/ W0 s9 R2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 e3 n; p3 ^6 z1 `4 P
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 e* V( z4 M1 @
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# w. _2 A! U" g) @7 X( ?banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
/ d8 ~2 a7 n/ h0 W8 _) ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* n- F: G- ~4 L/ |1 B9 \, v

. g0 k# v5 y4 HBeyond Greece
5 {; P5 {" ~) O! w8 Z7 s( X The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ q6 _' l) I/ W$ k
but that was before Italy.
; M8 n0 j/ G5 U6 @ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. m1 Z2 {; A; ^3 e
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: N3 {$ r; }$ S  B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion# ]! f8 m$ a, R  I" S) f) Q3 Q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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