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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 K. x* _5 ?9 p/ a8 ?5 a* ]

, }6 t) z; E3 W1 M$ w' |Market Commentary
' N' R# P8 |5 l, m# t2 k4 }Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 b( i  \. \0 HJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 _& p" v0 f/ A: f, _; W- N/ S7 v
Signature Global Advisors
3 u2 T, L( h5 y% f: _
1 |9 V& C. ^1 P8 |4 x
' r9 s% o. R6 @' A' `Background remarks
* A3 @4 q! g/ G Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, g3 \* a+ I8 A* z1 _- t. jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ l$ y  }: d6 g+ ]7 v$ p9 T% k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& q; x, n+ Z0 s+ P$ tadjustments.
9 D6 f: Z6 E4 o! @9 ?' L' d This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& p1 `* y  O6 ~: T) `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) A; W* P# X: d8 Q, h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ _/ j" R3 D. H, Z6 ?lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
5 N6 k- `- D6 [. Y1 q7 A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these! x1 W4 l  A: G* x) K) ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* G. Y1 [+ g4 k1 D4 L2 N Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" _/ j& h3 y% Q5 d2 e3 V. @4 ]3 t
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 I3 k; O, C( w$ V4 T
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ p2 M/ ~' |: v* L0 Z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 D$ h9 H- m% Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 B2 `5 V1 G8 S: x4 W2 ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. P2 s; Q$ J1 o; b" {/ J% G
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- ^$ k+ D" U3 K2 L
impose liquidation values.0 C  d# G7 C/ w" Q: x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 P  S8 x* w) T% |4 e; gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* W6 q4 U& E2 @! M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 p( b2 ?; S' y+ {
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; l! b; s# ^) j6 a- _; X' }1 N

0 D" h; j/ |) ^+ ?2 `* h# aA look at credit markets! x3 G! b; H6 _5 `& ]5 ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; q4 j6 G( _/ ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ F4 c; t" W, i+ s8 }# `& o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) `  F: a7 e! J3 a0 R' e5 k/ \
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; S& m; I* N& sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 N: S+ B0 d" ^$ a. z6 Iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 m3 r. [8 _  [  v, fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, r' @" ^. A7 h& J1 Vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 X% c! m) W6 {# n- r
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 p6 J5 u9 ~0 \) hfinding financing.! C& B! `1 _) }) E, R- ]8 R+ x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; t$ F: v% @+ h' I
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( Y) d5 j0 j6 A Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" [5 ^* k5 F; T3 R3 L- [' A4 x; Q3 K
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 ?1 Z, r  z; ^# l9 O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" _6 N1 r: N( N7 N6 t% g1 h
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: g! e* ]7 G! V& c, R European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. s* ?5 E# E' \% V4 T
today.4 @2 @  H8 M5 k+ U6 \0 N
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, ^% B+ R4 E' s. N% ^& f) J  Xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, m/ W7 q4 \" P  T! u
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! R9 T$ N* n/ z" Z& B0 A7 D$ ^the Greek default.
5 h+ |0 g* a4 e# z, c As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 i' l  ?" D* l" a
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 I* Q* u' r) q& Y# g) U
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! B6 S+ Y7 C  o& Ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 g. E* D' ~6 {/ o5 [" I
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) Y: M% \/ D2 p1 f, B
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years( A; T- j. r4 d% o% ]2 R) V# U
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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- O; J6 b7 ^2 M7 L9 G7 U2 m" |Beyond Greece
2 O' S, c4 b3 Z) ]3 a- l The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 P3 \* u" z- m
but that was before Italy.
0 {1 E" ~- s1 i2 h# h2 I/ \5 c$ M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; {% k) j: L6 u* v/ G2 ^3 J* ~- N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& B3 E9 N7 s+ y% L  E$ x
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( O6 w) ^: R% a% V6 m

) @) L6 H/ F0 g; U! n; {- ~' ?( [Conclusion* _+ I6 |9 c7 }+ _
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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