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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
# ^$ R1 b- ~+ s. s
) q* X2 B) O5 m# x; OMarket Commentary
0 D) H+ m: J7 B+ P: N5 G# R0 ^+ R* EEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 ^) w; i" i, r2 Z, b( l" W6 G( HJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# D3 l4 ^7 a$ vSignature Global Advisors* d2 y& r) f9 v, E$ E( g
. `* V! a: p$ q8 }: q
  t0 c* h& a! F7 f
Background remarks! C- f7 G# p; ~+ C% ?& x. P) B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 ], c1 Z1 _) o1 Das much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* u& g+ l$ Z, ^% @  o
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- R5 w: \, _- _8 ?
adjustments., A6 _' |, R$ q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, Z$ [% X/ i# a4 v# s3 I2 y: fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ s' K+ q. H4 i/ F# D" @
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ p& ]$ P9 D- I: o) Q( vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 \) O5 i$ g, a/ q* o8 d1 @ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 q2 d. b; G1 g8 o$ Z9 q+ X$ [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ [- Z, s0 F0 y" Q' ]  Y& n9 y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ U" H6 Q7 z  x7 t
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. {3 J$ W& N3 A; H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. l: }9 P( w4 M& g: ^5 Z: t0 D
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 r$ I2 D+ P2 M0 I
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' `5 g! w! c* x8 p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  w. O, R  s  D( T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ Y& w: p1 l+ Eimpose liquidation values.
" Y" {# x; J+ }  g: C5 X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; f& _. f; X; CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- T+ W" W$ L8 i, Q5 E4 b$ T" d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. d- ~) \. ?' o% Y" v2 D
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., v5 R( e# y+ y
2 }( v$ C# y6 _. y4 ]
A look at credit markets, x3 ?1 C  f! i, |& Q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- x3 J7 n9 s& e* tSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; V& D0 A, u- k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. j+ ?/ e: H7 `/ g4 B3 }% v2 s
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( G  o( Y" P; N% R. V. |0 \+ mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 S* l$ t, Y. w7 Y7 z1 T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. j4 v% z, L3 Z8 e% pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
5 N/ N6 R& Y: t  y* T, `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 q( m9 v5 b9 k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 S( q) Z' S9 B, U9 ifinding financing.
( m, p9 d9 G) S" h3 s  v Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 j. F6 L+ M( M  S
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  O/ M3 l/ q1 r Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& S3 d2 o! E) N# {2 [is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were6 O- w+ D6 i3 o' L3 u+ B, J$ r) ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! p5 `. _8 W; b# @) {2 X- p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- E8 h5 S  q3 Z) v# c% h  d  |" j
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" @+ U1 Q& u" B( K0 S) O2 Ztoday.* A3 r& P6 [: z) `) y# V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# ]# }5 U4 @0 N" B/ Q$ ~emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 f' B) i: K, T/ R
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, V  L& a% {0 ]* \
the Greek default.
8 V+ B4 S$ z% d1 V  p  o As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:# e1 U* E* k+ W% S. q3 z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! Q$ K& Y; T# L, J* w( q5 `2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 ]/ l& r  S3 c0 o( U% U+ D9 x0 g# G4 z
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' z- L2 z* n( t* s3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- C; t- g7 d$ p9 Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years) D! \$ ]+ n) a9 S& @" \, Y% G) C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
1 a* q& {  F9 R) _0 }4 {' B6 X+ `% I8 k. {
Beyond Greece
% k. V; \; M; W  Z1 [; [ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 \+ ?( d8 r6 l8 b/ I& l- a
but that was before Italy.
5 I3 s" Y3 J8 j+ q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 M% \( S; `2 U3 V
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, y# n: U* v, S, c' EItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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% k- V- l0 X7 Z, S0 I; GConclusion
) g" d! ^$ E2 E/ _- F  } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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