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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. h! Y5 B- }0 N: D
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Market Commentary
* `# _# m- n1 Z* C2 S+ EEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! z( w6 w! C% n  X9 H+ F# O9 ]
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 l) E; M4 H5 j% u/ m( ESignature Global Advisors+ _. g) a9 V0 F3 s' B' _

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+ L0 w& X6 G, h0 [" x/ j4 KBackground remarks  R. ^: w2 u- m) m5 H
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 i! i8 ^. t; v6 F" P9 l2 }as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! E9 `! R( ]( d/ g( h- Q( \) o Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ }3 L5 q4 b- ]adjustments.
* k! G; k- H+ P This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. D$ C# q5 U, `6 L* a
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* N+ U- P3 M7 [1 `0 u Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are; o+ T, W0 r# k+ p
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( g; J- ]' }* ~& H7 L
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 b" Q' p$ x3 k9 x% q6 g; [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 Y- ]4 _  S$ {) H Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: W1 D+ o% o+ ~  U3 _- iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' v3 }) W; E9 k: q  |& f0 r" M
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 G, w7 x  ^" c" U$ c/ P+ U- E
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 H/ R$ n8 o$ c; y0 ~1 E% preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ S( i2 F1 d- V# s8 S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% E& a% r- V: O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 _8 g1 u+ s8 b1 s7 _impose liquidation values.
( h+ U6 @4 }7 B8 {, U) P8 y& ] In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 ?& c* n2 g. j5 [
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* }, c& G9 D' g9 L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; J# O0 R$ Y) D
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
; [  h& @: v6 f% r8 I* g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 E, Y. T. d9 q  Z2 `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( W* E$ ~) k/ Z& m3 L High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 n  l9 _0 ?( M; O. X" e) E8 u
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' \, g' y* [& F( e' Ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 S. X$ g6 @7 U9 p" `: n
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ ?! C/ Y7 F! v6 \  T" b! \3 W4 s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 n- D" E& I# r8 f; D/ f* M$ Z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: z! g  k% j6 h! h& _( X) Y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 e) T. E9 X! A; ~
finding financing.5 P! f- ^* R5 q9 F6 J, C. k) L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  J. D$ R) {/ t3 P# Zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." |& S5 v. n1 V$ F
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 n: s" W% W6 W: M; p% W) U1 cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 m* b$ h0 @2 d( K9 {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ Z# |7 c( T9 ~4 O8 E. x% u
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ K& u; q8 O* c; s" D9 Q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( A  ~8 X6 B2 Y7 ^
today.2 P/ `( a8 X* v* p5 Q" s6 @" f" i8 W
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) u1 u* j/ I! V. i- ~# oemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* @) S3 n. q/ A6 o
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: y* [4 J! X, _0 T" S1 p
the Greek default.
/ X7 t( B) M' M+ [+ u$ O; P! \ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  G" U' H1 K( ^: b$ Y, H* B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 `& b+ {6 p: G( u. y# @! c) L3 x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 e. J& d0 ^4 ^1 }% s2 h# _! Hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) ]* }3 d5 E% H/ {6 h: e3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 o4 S& `5 R3 Y4 obanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years  ^9 C1 H8 \  L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 }8 T. c" C( t' k0 \/ N

8 w6 R2 i; u6 U+ j+ qBeyond Greece
% J' Q7 C. V0 \0 n8 Q# K; i! Q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 {7 v/ O* h( J. V4 |
but that was before Italy.
6 J+ p7 Q  \3 O It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" U  u8 l: J* d% J It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* D$ u7 A5 r, L% ~: d3 EItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
5 ?& t! Z9 _0 o& Y0 l We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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