市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

9 }8 X5 s' e- B/ z; d5 o( e$ yMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 @, c5 y8 Y* ?# W3 k- _$ x6 mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' O, N! s+ j) m& y5 RSignature Global Advisors
4 W: ?/ s4 C: B7 R
) ~+ d* [! D3 o
7 K3 ?$ w) R$ OBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 F. p1 U' S( t: ]adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. d4 k/ L4 U9 ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) s! u+ w. ^" M2 ?( v5 j We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% }: I7 x- ]9 Zquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 A$ }1 O: I% t5 x6 e Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  U) c- Y) p# ]" P  _1 c. u6 ~ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. S* L! w' ?1 {) i' }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( D8 I3 `5 H8 U, Z( e& L, v7 ~. jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 B1 E- ~) f! ?0 o# Iimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! S+ @! n4 P) x& p2 l8 x/ V4 W# O) bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 s! g) R! k/ A( \1 [$ x The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ x& c' O0 w8 @billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' k: b+ F( [, W' M) Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- X  }% P' a# h' Y7 B5 E  F% W5 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% _8 U9 _) v8 gfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  C& k0 F: M6 ^) K. X; ?were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ W% w5 t8 w- G* J! Y* S Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 K1 |; _, |7 P* His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 Z) E- F+ s6 k9 N" N; }bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
+ ~$ t2 k) Y5 g$ x Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 B6 ]) b; h& y# [! `the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 G2 M  }  h% ?/ i2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; s) S. X( @3 I- _# i: adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ z' U6 f, @% s6 i) O( kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 d5 C% C% L# S- u; c' p4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
7 ?( o; ~. h/ m0 n
" J6 u+ w  U2 u3 D- \& tBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
& p* e$ G- p, @( G3 C! D It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, Z: l; y- ?9 {% B/ @# }1 t/ aItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
+ X7 d4 @4 f* x8 `! A6 f' [
' i, }! |& z' ^3 s& KConclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan