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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
' ]1 D" T/ F0 H5 d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 j* c* e7 ~; L. Nas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
Q6 p Q4 s. M2 A2 O/ E9 Wimpose liquidation values.% ]$ [- O6 I( q: I# a$ @
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 W, m6 Y9 E4 `0 vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., n' _+ i+ H3 K4 \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ M7 G3 Z5 g1 s$ L Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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% r+ j0 _) O+ [8 M% v2 \& C* ?A look at credit markets1 a! i s6 t$ H. K0 i- T
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, s3 J" [9 E, T
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% Z& x1 l; z; A8 o1 |
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 @7 \4 g G. X, {7 a: Z+ ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. q9 G+ G6 }+ ~% L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 I9 K5 u: `; E+ \8 {access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 s' q3 T% s" h7 S, @* b2 m# c4 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& `6 D' ^# ~* s# p( K
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* X7 f% U, A$ X q( o( `# z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 x0 y% L/ ~# G9 w& J vfinding financing.# C. ^" b, O0 B
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! }4 C+ }4 {/ g6 B( l9 `" r
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ p/ p3 X% h/ B: d0 f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, w, G/ n' V( Q: p4 Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 |. t% U5 `+ l
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 n% `- j+ E1 Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ E3 g" Z; i( y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ S0 |! I: @. n; @2 u; ~
today.9 c' j( X5 Y) A% B; u
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; _6 H! @, U. m! M9 ]4 |
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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