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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation8 K3 H) W# O w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ X2 [) C6 E% h9 Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 c9 B1 z" }8 @9 l f/ |2 U
impose liquidation values.
, a2 o, w1 {: ~1 u/ u- E In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, Q& ?8 g1 \. N% HAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 {. o3 O& x2 c4 B" d% i3 V- G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 _* o6 w( c/ E" m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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3 ?! {6 @ n: Q" y4 HA look at credit markets) j; Q4 E( u" F Y/ T3 ~; ]5 c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 g, \8 l* e& K/ @% h, M
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 @7 h3 h# a1 {& q3 w0 o2 { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. f" s* O/ ^7 z {" I. A
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: M! C+ E l# `" Q1 w: I. e5 Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 S7 u0 o; c% q0 o- a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ P. y2 ~' W9 s$ F9 qCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 ]$ j- I: Q) A8 {6 {; i5 d- qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! U! ~2 L y1 O Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# y# a+ F. I$ i, a$ x# ^$ l
finding financing.
, p8 }3 \" q Z5 k Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) L& ~2 f$ W3 S& ?! A, Rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ z# b" _# w$ u F- W# O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, G7 u- I' h' v5 {" l: J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 V% s" `# Y( b3 _: Mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 G' w, m8 D( [( l7 ]' Z9 Cbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 G; G5 f. Z! b) v' | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain D6 S! n( S7 M5 t2 R
today.
" G* q7 p& E7 N8 a3 t Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ P @9 A: N* Q. O" o3 V1 {6 ~& ^3 aemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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