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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 O: u8 k6 R2 @& j8 ^

( I  q( c" a" j1 }+ j  zMarket Commentary' U! W' r2 X9 D- E
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer. s+ V1 ]+ b  ?8 |9 n$ \; V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
* _2 Q% [$ U7 P# d* x6 x9 CSignature Global Advisors
9 @& w; u2 k. U! T8 ]
' P* @6 B, J% g( l& E2 L( _% y
Background remarks
8 a: K# V" h5 M$ E8 ~8 R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 I7 D4 ~3 }6 J' e" r: t7 F3 Fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 y9 @% Q" D/ Q8 E% h Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 N  T7 u7 {- madjustments.
4 |' Q+ N  u$ u This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; c& U# z* M; B0 S" X7 ^) W+ r& Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* ~* C: x/ M3 r1 I  Q4 r% o Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ m6 a& {+ Y! Y4 ]7 K' Olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. e9 m1 y  h& r We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" W' t" Y8 T, U$ P8 e0 ?adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. ?9 X, L: U0 p Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& ~/ R) H6 S0 M& W! Mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 q' g% z; `5 H  I/ F3 V7 V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 z( U# q* d( B7 C& c+ A Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 ]  R3 s6 r0 g0 }9 E+ preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation: E$ d# A/ l) g/ \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 ?$ a* c+ Y$ @4 G4 Q9 @) X2 E: y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% Z3 t) Y( M: z) s3 z
impose liquidation values.
# q: |) w( ~) }7 |3 y* h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' R9 E; }- n( ?! c1 ~2 Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 m$ }! l3 o1 v- K% L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. L7 J4 e: X6 V; k* ?" kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
1 [/ N2 E# z2 }, `+ H
1 H7 }0 e4 E  c, V1 ~- SA look at credit markets" `' E4 T: c3 m& a( ?" @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 H2 m7 F! ~; ?" A: QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# e& O  n# O! y5 d+ k# w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- y8 M1 p. W2 L9 p0 A
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 X7 Q- e8 a2 x; M: w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# B7 O1 v* g7 U4 T+ R
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 i& ~) j/ d. l; a' a9 I7 [
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 b% J$ k, u+ D8 K6 }positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ C. r4 C. |3 H5 T7 H2 N4 j) R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 J6 b* W/ {) ~9 d% b% U2 ]" nfinding financing.1 |: R' o" l1 t; _+ Y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 M( G' v& F) R5 w/ @6 g4 D0 ~5 fwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 `- b! d6 i. {! x; }8 [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* {! W4 G# X% M7 F+ jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: _5 p6 y7 y( V9 g$ wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 A3 d" Z" |1 f% X6 H' Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' N$ Q1 w: ?' ?  \) \9 ]' G
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, N4 k+ [% c& u* J2 [& k" Z8 K
today.
% u" v* v& {, ^4 u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 t+ W- Z  o1 y5 u4 O  }emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( f9 J/ B2 \: j/ d& g& @
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 k- |( u% t; u7 x' \" m
the Greek default.4 O! @$ d& B0 m% y3 f0 @+ {
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 y/ c4 E5 R+ g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ O; i; C1 x! f, h' L2 X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ ^6 V4 b. u/ Q; m9 ?5 rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
$ p$ F! a) R- W! g9 G5 ?9 L4 C6 f4 Y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 E  ~+ i. S7 O8 p( _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. w: a# [& P! D3 v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
6 M% y8 G8 x8 K* m4 `( y2 @7 m( O5 L  R$ M; P
Beyond Greece5 o# C% [8 s" Q9 I, J2 O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 Y* O% M5 G2 J- r
but that was before Italy.2 L! z* y3 Z/ ^0 |  ^$ I/ T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
& Z. @% k' z6 @& R5 S$ J+ Y It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ r4 q; T5 H! C- B: _7 pItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 }. X4 p/ z3 o4 C8 S) R
4 d) Z5 D3 K! J9 G9 Y( c8 c: N7 k
Conclusion
; _; `2 l3 Q; B' ` We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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