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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 |0 Y; y( n8 Q

' q9 C# o& E2 a8 D" z) C; WMarket Commentary* s# ~; h: Z1 i4 ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, f! ]. v9 o* ^, C3 k) V6 B" _
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( z$ \. `8 w& T0 t
Signature Global Advisors
) ~& l& _4 K& |" w* }" b0 I" c! F
0 h: h0 {9 `& |6 O  a; v
! Q8 ?8 y) ?, b8 Z5 p; }# PBackground remarks( ^9 U- v$ Y5 r+ E- G
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% j, }% r: ^0 E8 D
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 \+ a$ }, v- H# s; @
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ l# y9 f6 M( H+ `  }
adjustments.5 ~5 U* v. z" r" H0 E* q1 h- _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, N1 y% j8 N. c- F  k% ]! }* \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 J$ K5 x& o- f+ u% Y- I
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# H7 p6 m! l) a% ^! [8 s: G9 g& X( V2 Klessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* O/ J8 {9 C/ t, Q" ?+ y# i We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these! [$ {  y" w9 `" L7 s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ z7 V- ]& H8 t% T7 g* y4 o3 y  B" u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 h) \" h$ x3 g
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.% j9 T. Z  [/ B/ ^! S! e" h. v
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# _! n! {/ z" b+ Y& J* V3 n Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 A: P4 ]5 X8 r' C0 T% {8 U
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& a0 I! i+ Q* O8 A) S! }. x) p" O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 ?7 w0 X! g4 V- Z$ B7 Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 m6 j$ s; q# ^8 ~* k- U
impose liquidation values.
2 ^( L1 W; n" ~5 o; z0 m' j! H  {8 P! J In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 M5 i3 ~9 q2 E' Q) x1 Q' AAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* W" F- ^0 C- d2 a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  C1 s7 h* D+ j( \
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) L  H/ W! g& R' A1 Z

! Y2 S/ i+ Z" X& d! nA look at credit markets# n4 Z1 S0 L3 _. j& e9 t* }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' ~; Q# \' b0 u% s" N( FSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 h! u  |+ ^4 r1 k1 X% v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 I8 u* z4 c" g/ @. s# H) {then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' k  P2 B+ V: b/ v$ A
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 z! ?# a6 \" }; p& @8 Q7 f4 k3 zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  f) ~: y7 j$ Y3 D/ y( F# x
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% n3 ^2 t* I0 B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ [- K/ O: K4 Q2 P& R( f2 N; L
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 }. w! Q7 |6 X; g' U" W5 [% U
finding financing.' Z9 j1 M0 Q' A6 p3 x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. O  V: x4 o9 Owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 b9 g3 e% x5 k1 _$ D Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( z! ~% a5 u7 t) p) {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 j" ^) A; D. N0 R* `) s, Igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ u1 h; W$ q+ o3 T) ~, P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' n4 K' ~5 E5 z) s9 |0 s) h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. I; e5 G  j6 i6 K1 M5 V8 [+ |/ ?3 }today.2 K! Y) G; {1 u) f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# n# q$ D8 ?+ Q% ~0 hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& \6 w+ C4 h8 a* Q& `) j8 \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. r$ `' ~; K$ N4 hthe Greek default.
# |7 @" ]7 H0 i7 Y7 r% \ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. E4 j' `6 _5 m0 v$ v& a
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ b. e4 {# i3 k1 y* X. Y, ^/ e2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: H" l- l! B1 J+ |; X1 r
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.! b2 a  Z, @9 o* q) i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ L! a1 d* K5 c: i& @8 a( rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. @( p- a6 D4 D! [  W" d, b" M0 ]; Z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 u! H: k/ S4 W* l

2 x8 V7 ]' S  Z9 `9 LBeyond Greece* g5 O) Q* Q: `
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, T1 x9 ]2 i, ]. k3 s: ^but that was before Italy.( K) m3 w0 }  u7 C2 N2 U$ L( l2 j
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* `9 B7 b6 b$ R5 P$ V It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* Y6 s3 F% S8 dItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  f3 H7 t' v, {7 H% `' q

' ~# e" [1 B6 [3 z! j3 T8 |Conclusion
& i, p. N+ _* E" c) k' ?3 n We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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