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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation/ x% m8 p# j) v
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 A8 F2 u4 y4 F$ Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" A% _/ k# Y8 Z8 d
impose liquidation values.: p$ T$ m% _7 m% T
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ p" x6 B8 c4 E7 y% F6 c) @" {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% K2 ]. E! D& Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, D6 q- u- ]9 j+ ^0 w' ~. C6 _2 [scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 Z0 G/ ]( y3 [( {8 Z& T7 \5 P8 r
+ x3 K1 I0 d h, L/ G: [+ ]2 u: e0 gA look at credit markets1 L. }1 F2 X, u s$ {
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# D" I0 U M! q! r/ w3 g* VSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 B0 K9 I: r, T% K# d+ l5 ]3 s% K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ L' s1 t8 }2 M$ R1 y: C' J8 V
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 l" s- S' Q* H' c$ dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- s* i2 K6 t9 ]5 q9 l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 O/ c2 e/ ?. t9 G' z; qCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* ?1 ^, q3 e" U& ]8 |% Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 e# [, B* M0 t- i' o- m( [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 Q+ u7 C6 `% C3 D5 i- c* {" nfinding financing.! |: G. C ]8 Y% r8 S. z1 p' L r0 ?
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! x0 Y$ k* O- ?" ^; iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 L# F7 ^# u& O$ U6 i+ Q/ W
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
8 ?' `. C0 @8 K. Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 U! b/ p% r% Z; j- m" }0 }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. P+ Y6 Z3 r. P1 L( @! ]bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- J- s) Q3 s0 n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 N, |& Q/ K: B/ J9 L. Ftoday.
, z; w% {, O" [% u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ u; w* y& J5 K) z$ X( zemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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