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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 P( S5 `3 \) S4 |  M& e( \

; ~; P" o( Y" {% p3 bMarket Commentary
6 h7 ]& s" s4 ]; W! Z# t2 xEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* t" u# l6 S! @: Z, K- E  \
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, L, C" ~# m7 a* s+ a+ o1 H; \- QSignature Global Advisors1 G/ Z/ W$ x# }

1 y- n* F# @& I
$ J# q+ _/ b6 m4 yBackground remarks
2 i) X8 A% A; Q' Y) f$ V8 t Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) [( \2 N6 k" n& `* U/ m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" O# X4 o( G! } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 I5 c# b; Z+ p- n9 Kadjustments., I4 ~# Y3 [) N3 v0 l% e( X- _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- r+ O# n3 d' S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. u' Z' k2 {. R Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: e+ ]& \9 O; F7 n2 E7 p% @
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! F' q$ V5 ~( w& k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) Z, _6 ?& A6 I; K. P2 N2 c' j6 w) {
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- t- y( }+ U& h2 m% r1 [
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: Z2 t6 T  y5 g' B8 t3 ?
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 g: P3 y  w5 @1 | Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 F; E& v2 ?$ `1 y0 r4 m
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, U0 n% n' v. m0 B$ R5 g5 x1 p# ?reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 O" t2 U; n! M  d& v' J$ v0 a6 g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 n0 h& d1 J0 r) k; K4 P/ l3 o
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 `& B  T+ F: B: Ximpose liquidation values.! F5 G3 S- O5 k: Q% B/ p0 V; W$ j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ z; Q" S8 j. s9 h7 CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 G" M7 l. I& M8 C  u8 J: z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 O: t, W8 a5 H" K  V% p' X
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- m' [( D" l4 H) y6 `
# H- m1 m5 e9 s, Z. V. H2 K/ d& m
A look at credit markets
/ @; i; g; {2 H+ x; ?2 U- r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 z: n  a! m" I+ B+ sSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ t! b" y( Y1 K3 z: C& q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- u+ S- o- k+ M' bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: s0 `5 U) |9 x% p: Z4 d4 j* gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; G, @7 P5 m" d- L$ f) _  P5 ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 Y8 ?9 g9 ]6 X! y/ Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 z: z; `5 X9 I8 w  L) J- d% U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 I  S" Z. l5 K8 J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 p6 K& H3 J8 M' S, Cfinding financing.9 z3 b+ R. x1 ]" J3 t4 P3 V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ z  @: o+ b0 n/ hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., `: C( I* E8 [& g; P, t# o) y  Q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ ^' N- {) Z8 B# T1 y4 @; kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 o/ v" g6 v# _0 e, @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ t9 U; K. }' `$ p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. m- [; {+ h  M8 a5 o) n* Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. H. {4 w+ C6 K5 b1 k" }6 ^today.
2 c7 o* r& ~) N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* x# [: |' A4 z8 ~emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 ~: {6 Q2 t" K- O3 O* ^9 u) O Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for3 L2 }) c& h( N; F% g+ S( \1 _
the Greek default.
  X- Y( \) I% e) l4 r As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( _, P& I& e( B* `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" ]9 j2 k" B; s5 W# E: N3 @2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& d* K$ H, V9 B1 B
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 |' I4 v, q- j4 h, \3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 a$ q5 b8 X5 D' h& w
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: T3 v; D5 W& t3 S4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
# g* Z4 O1 m7 y  {# Y% U+ l! W$ x& H6 v, V* p) T
Beyond Greece
8 ?# q: c2 ~3 C+ K The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 G9 J- E. B7 T. m0 Y; ^& Z
but that was before Italy.
6 Q" x: \6 M8 j1 W, B It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; y  W7 k9 [* Z5 f2 i It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ p4 G1 R/ V# ^( \2 iItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ f* N5 m) P  D0 x
( ]( S* R. |& q6 z. q/ x& M$ E
Conclusion+ c: ?3 p8 R3 Z: [
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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