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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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( k! [: S, ^0 `/ G# |: ?Market Commentary
2 W2 I) O$ c2 w- j5 u; uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& [+ M4 `# w, t/ [( D9 J9 gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: y2 {( [3 g: \3 R1 L0 @: E& pSignature Global Advisors4 [6 w# }8 B4 @6 q1 K# t9 N2 M5 z
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8 l. r1 |8 b) s8 @8 R  g' ^Background remarks
7 B+ i8 q: X6 r! U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! `& G: [4 Y" {3 f8 O9 P7 Ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! d5 o. D9 z% X5 r* `, @ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( r' C; y  p- sadjustments.% Y3 l( |2 {/ Y' W' G. C& _& S/ T
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! f8 V7 o8 `& |# X% G; d1 x; c9 U
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& T  c# x* ~% p0 ^8 x& F Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, Y- f: b3 N9 B- i2 A' G- |
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." H% Z! }) v% y2 M0 g8 J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 l0 M& u: |1 C9 t+ Y: [) b
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 [( v+ ~) J- R$ `7 n8 C6 t
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s- k6 y- F9 w5 N5 g3 v# }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ U' A  `# l- \4 E& d& _ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; w& H; P5 z7 V% P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( p* y6 h  S5 d) L8 a( ?2 s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 p' F4 O9 V! X' c9 c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% n! }# j, C+ U. A7 v8 Y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( [% j( b1 P' L
impose liquidation values.
4 R+ G2 s. k, L8 v& b% f; U9 D5 S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# b& l5 R) [7 K( C7 b# r! ?* V7 T( z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 b6 b5 b' F0 B/ H1 ]
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 W. D9 _8 c0 @  L% escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 z+ p, n7 _2 [

- ?( P$ k% G  S6 ~/ _+ \- eA look at credit markets
( Z. N2 Y  p' O/ i3 ^, ^7 K3 \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- O% c0 w7 K% h- j% y  h4 iSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. t$ K1 g$ T/ K- w$ S High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" m$ z, T- M1 Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 T& G$ p# \) d+ q3 \, {
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 x3 a# Q, ~1 c$ q4 I2 |
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ p4 q) G% ^! H5 x8 ]CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 U* V' m2 E% [' m3 w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." q$ [& M1 a* M* T+ @
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 N/ [; J+ c, k. W- Z* V* [+ C, M, w
finding financing.! M0 d0 l$ e) I. u9 @+ x1 D
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 r+ L- R( _, @, T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( K4 p3 V. h3 o( f& w5 e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" ^$ J) m' q5 `- b) W' Z( @
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ y9 O& \9 P9 H+ d9 }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 a# N; N3 w+ F- a; _5 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- A8 v5 C! z# E/ G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 L% W/ r" C9 J8 H' I& L. z! C6 p
today., j& @; s$ ^# ~
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 H9 P$ M7 e: Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda2 c6 Q- i9 P$ {2 @% |% e6 P
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for& `  ]8 t) ^3 [( I) t: N! W2 \6 y
the Greek default.% u; g+ m4 X( ]2 U; E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% r( g" E* a: W, H9 d
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 `( o+ P% l! h3 [" G/ p2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign" T: R; T$ |0 j: U3 V1 h! G4 D
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( S+ k; T+ t. ?
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. H# f" y4 a& D# E: V! Y
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 [: v5 n$ m, a) X  X9 o  z; @7 r$ G
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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2 s# }/ B" ^0 c; J4 ~1 A1 nBeyond Greece
2 f, I0 F' j  G& W The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: V3 J0 v: O) k3 `  ]but that was before Italy.
" c0 B. {7 I2 A6 J- p& z0 ` It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ A1 K3 D( Y# s; c' V
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the2 Z8 q: h' ~# w. h/ Z' L# J& i5 g1 H
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: p1 b& V% U* m& |) {2 C* D

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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