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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ z% |! A3 b7 X' c# D

  @0 s; S2 H, g# s2 N" j0 q6 lMarket Commentary
9 v- R7 e3 Q0 i3 G5 y5 I# lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 w, B4 G  _5 h8 e$ uJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 T8 M1 N0 E9 t2 u0 _8 v
Signature Global Advisors' x4 A* T) |. i2 J9 ]( F
2 p/ Q4 l2 o5 @, k0 Q  q

9 z) ]+ u1 G" k; T9 t5 R$ K* S. xBackground remarks
7 B3 u5 G" H2 V9 W8 f2 h( ]1 _ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ o$ V/ j2 i/ l) {+ i: y6 t
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ `) h' R; w+ V7 [% T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) v9 a7 M/ k8 eadjustments.+ K9 W- `9 X. \6 |* R) a) K7 l
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 |7 R5 Q3 L. L- L& Q9 C) Hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 ^' G- {- u6 j6 x" l% L( r- Q) d& A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: B, K  }3 y* h4 E# M5 }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! m  p, U6 y# f1 \, M4 t# _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 k7 z. _' t: h' q; Vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" c/ r1 V$ K5 Y2 i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ q7 g$ Z3 a$ }! ~quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ ^( N" r/ @* C* H* k) K
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.1 d& i# N6 ^. t% w
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 q. N% L: w6 c5 K7 creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 |- l: T. n* d, s% o; e* I. s The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 \" b( x# I9 D* q& o  \0 p3 ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* N' A+ C( X: m, k0 Y
impose liquidation values.  ?8 s! x# R$ S* ?. e: D6 }
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 _( {5 M" ]1 D; l1 K1 ^* O2 J5 mAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ K# x  }! m* y" |" ?, `. Q% P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 v4 l0 E1 W9 C0 E6 ^. z- ]
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
1 I3 K) m9 D- \% y% X& Z7 f6 H
- z. n6 M5 E" o( sA look at credit markets
- @! X- Z4 q0 {$ W! G, N) Z8 n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* ^$ j& a: w: @3 g
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- F6 a2 ~3 {0 k! P% l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# ^3 M" n5 q9 y8 d! R; p4 v# Q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! ^1 e; |0 j$ E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  |: k+ @8 W7 p1 d: I
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
6 `& r) E2 J) v4 k8 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* P. o& y+ T& y4 E% D4 }
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- i& i: g$ O& J0 \6 h Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( I- B9 A2 g" f: k. X% Qfinding financing.
' o; @0 x! ?! }$ X( W: Q$ i1 e& w/ C Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% e0 H3 r/ l" B& H7 Y2 Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) N) j& V; i; I: n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  f( r% k/ ]$ {" a: v' N" N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) X. F4 s: P- s- j- e! ^: g, L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 t7 a+ B; Q) x2 Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ @% U2 v" o7 G2 w5 v& a9 m European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 X, d4 z5 q3 P% _" R4 V, Ttoday.
( a' a2 O( |- t4 b5 k* [$ \1 f/ \: s Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 }2 C- c: Y! i- @6 vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 r9 X  v- e1 z% w: o+ ?2 S
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 j+ e) w) f* d9 U# Y1 w/ n
the Greek default.$ \3 c; {. `, Y* i( X# X4 n
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ T. e4 W& I) w$ ?- N- w; C
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. }2 V, a! x( N  `& ^. I; F
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, U9 A3 j2 \9 i; I2 t8 {* f; _
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& R' K+ W5 x: o3 w4 z6 T3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) J  h( m7 o4 c- a
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 V. }  V9 W8 {
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- ^, {9 {0 R9 }$ Y" V
! o5 `% W3 i! M/ l  e( D. V6 t! w
Beyond Greece
4 i) D3 n% s7 Y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' ^6 f. Y: s5 |- I
but that was before Italy.$ d; Q( S+ o$ O1 d# W2 J2 g
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
2 D1 A* h- M# t0 m It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 p" B4 c% t' w4 K6 B0 ^Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
; d8 F& v" }* e# h  j2 u* x2 \+ I5 U* a' J/ x/ G. k
Conclusion+ ^9 _* Z) V9 T# _% W) ?' i
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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