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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
" V8 k, `# I0 x
- k% O) U& C5 AMarket Commentary
4 p2 k9 C0 W/ l! R# \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! N# p7 j: \) W1 x
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 K: c. M) A& V  nSignature Global Advisors
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3 ]$ `) X' k3 x4 D' u" V0 O
8 f+ k9 {, R* }. ?4 u: ?Background remarks
( E; A. w$ E6 v4 |# v5 B# f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( k0 P; O! ~" k  L3 `8 N. Mas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 ?2 L3 ]& F! ~5 t5 T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  I0 o9 i1 w1 b
adjustments." O# K/ w! o" c: ~% g* G
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 A( }% F- V. f1 \' N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 G6 Z9 W$ ]7 Z# ~ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- R, e" O  F" b6 S1 K7 M' l9 Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 K0 d% {" {2 L We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: a) _) k4 T. d7 h" p7 {adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 y1 o% y1 P; w
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 b  h& r+ J1 R# A# p
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 {# d/ A2 h3 C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ I$ D2 u) G+ C! I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& K! ]) Z# p' G: ]0 B7 N
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! Y( j* H3 d: z; `( o1 \" @5 q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 n$ n3 [+ f5 `  g- [& b
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  `5 M% Z1 z( @8 j6 x$ Dimpose liquidation values.
0 {" B; H' J( z  X. w- `/ P In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ L/ h( v; w8 h2 L$ s4 G  h2 \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 l; L( U- C: b  L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! |/ ^. d3 k( a3 |
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' R" Q4 B; x% S8 O) _: ?* R1 r* `5 v" z# C: N
A look at credit markets
# ]' Z, t( p5 a/ a Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% P. W7 C/ S$ j4 Z. S8 A+ ^$ J
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ Y8 ?. K  J3 m1 m5 W& E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) p1 k3 Z$ c" Y5 X& a1 o% i$ F0 d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 |2 `& b) `1 n. }# Ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 n# L) N8 A* P4 ^+ g  |- kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ G. b- s2 d& QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 U) `0 O3 h; jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 P  l, `) H& ?7 p  d. K) m& q3 A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 z4 H  M8 L* l' b* M" x) Afinding financing.
3 ~; Z' g+ L9 b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# n2 N# A- Z; Q) @' z- w
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ G+ G; L% A/ N1 [. ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; j( D+ q" ?9 w, b! S$ Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* v; \: J& ~6 C7 j8 k
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- |- |# x  L/ I1 a1 [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; W$ j' E* \" @# ~; |4 V  x
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 \# r( F8 W  T' r9 G1 p1 f
today.: G" a! a* U) k# {9 J5 s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) w- C' H. f3 g+ I! D% P1 ?3 X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, {6 K- p4 I+ ?2 J2 Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" H' Q7 T; Z( C, X8 Y  vthe Greek default.
, m$ K4 o  g; \+ r3 e1 W) r# I. }" x1 v As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. o4 W6 ^) l9 K; u- Z/ }. D
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default' |! G, a8 y9 `9 c
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 l  X/ j2 [" E6 {' ]6 Edebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# p- D! k' e: x3 `, m" R
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 |! O. N# {' ^
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% P7 J9 v# H( m/ J; l( s
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., t6 i4 T5 w5 ^8 @- j) j. K
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Beyond Greece
9 f9 w: K6 b- z6 V0 V# z. X' Z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. k0 A  k4 A' M+ k. G' W+ X
but that was before Italy.* j5 w2 s* A& Q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
2 k4 ~0 W* I8 I. j' | It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# m- g) M/ k, H2 y+ b- EItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.1 F5 \0 ^0 d# c. H: S2 ?! v; R
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Conclusion
3 A1 s7 W, B5 E' U, v8 G* F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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