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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, {3 d% i6 s* ?" l, I( ?
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Market Commentary6 [. V+ S( U  c: H
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ I& P7 C1 W! G4 x/ _& M- r: z# z, d
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: H& j' X, P- H  i. w: C1 _* U4 ~
Signature Global Advisors5 A  [; k2 e9 w/ |+ j7 C2 T" N

, C* P" g' T3 N) |) [, c* D# V: O* q' j- {  |& T  \9 z
Background remarks
. w7 u% M5 \3 y4 A Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& F" Q6 C! ], l( e. R0 n' {4 s0 i& l
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
1 ?* J6 l% ^" j( [2 I+ \ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# m# e% q, W$ l5 c8 c
adjustments.
8 @. h* f/ l8 w! i/ @ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 w4 D2 W4 S/ O: E0 D$ j+ Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 I, k  L" p: v7 X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& j/ T  N1 {5 r3 ?lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 G5 _5 C7 i  t' L* h9 M
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" Q4 P: F+ K) ]0 w1 Z0 y+ x5 u
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 |+ ?$ K$ a- G, K0 T1 m7 e; }1 h3 j
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 T8 Q+ _, H+ t0 l6 {* W9 Z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.# ]+ A: q+ ?+ h
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 I- @  [! e8 T4 u0 B
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) I( P/ Y* }1 ?! G
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" @7 T3 A; P7 V; ]
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, p2 b& I- {2 n1 U4 F2 y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. q4 w* K' Q" U5 f! P2 Z) h
impose liquidation values., O8 l' _  X7 D& A! I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, @+ d  i3 g2 b! |% G. N4 qAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ }6 K3 _) x! e0 U
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. q" n' i1 g0 W3 d& H8 s! Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 a4 s. C" a, U# H  l1 I- O" h# }, E8 V1 }8 F/ V
A look at credit markets
+ R: Z1 N0 C' s8 k) s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  u  b. A7 s8 M/ p9 }
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 r  Q+ B( }8 a% K1 H1 p- ?8 F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 n6 k' n; c7 Z+ G2 ~
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, l' D# V& I# Q5 f2 }& y3 A
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) {2 y  V8 m/ l& r/ Zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ ?$ v7 U: D; K& ]+ X1 h' A
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. S7 L4 Q' T% h# b, s; w% d$ s
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  p3 _1 s) Q1 C" A* Q; J8 X Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- T+ H( M7 z! H6 a
finding financing.
! P+ R- A) @" x$ I Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 g: `6 c) w- H1 X# e9 d( v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* E" ?- z/ h& H* k) U" }1 Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! F. d. n7 Z. R% A8 Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ c( w1 j3 m+ a. L( d4 I  Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  O" a9 ?+ ^" H# _# q& K' Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 @/ L6 s) W0 \8 V# t7 s, `) | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ a1 @3 R* Q/ {; r7 U( z2 k
today.
# h- X- D, [( ~+ M4 Q* X3 G$ ^8 N5 p7 E Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* ]+ I! G- w6 w7 Z% D  I$ [- iemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 U+ U( Y$ I" R: V; x* G/ R
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
- y) V' h5 @( n5 j- |; X6 ?  f  Uthe Greek default.# w$ ^0 y8 w: u9 A6 R' j3 S# F
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 ?9 A0 \& T4 ]: b: r7 u  |
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 b! s# N8 T$ p1 W
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, {; L9 A+ U7 ]2 r' m& p8 y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ T7 u9 M$ {$ G0 r  l3 W" i" c) E- Q$ I
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 o4 h; ]; ?. @" C7 {1 Zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) l  ]* i* {- ]* B+ }+ o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
# F: E# X3 ]* P$ @0 L( m# P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ j) J# h' C8 u9 `2 {
but that was before Italy.
$ H! c' L" U- O6 j0 Y, X; v It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
6 X9 E! V* F, ]  f% r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 r- a4 c+ @5 C
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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$ F! ^, V# a1 V& p/ lConclusion
2 u! ?7 [; A" i! c7 J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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