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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation0 e9 E& u9 \) X: Q" t0 x" S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 w/ z* x- Z$ G. O0 v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 w8 i, {# {0 c
impose liquidation values.
! o' ^: h3 p$ W/ @: R In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 {. }" f7 ^" n4 u6 B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; p) e g1 e: b9 s4 f& b' J g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, A; U" C2 d: D5 h+ p/ w G
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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- j+ T: p! }; \. n) a( C# |* IA look at credit markets" Z4 U$ w' T' a2 x; s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' I, J8 O7 R) u6 f [4 MSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 G& m% U; i" Y9 J3 a* M/ `. j: k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ A, M0 V/ ~; g1 v% ]2 B
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 e# B/ b: c9 k8 f3 c; pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* }% g9 ^% E3 t0 _/ R# Vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 H; ?) x3 a8 P' L2 v, u: I' [# M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) E+ C- _2 z1 v( D
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. M; L. U9 _. }6 c D5 S9 S
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 N" A$ U" q5 {& sfinding financing.! r2 b6 f& y, Y. D$ a7 z! d9 w
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( k" K9 B$ u& @8 ~
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 G$ C# M. x+ S( M; P# D. G$ h! l3 `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. U* o& Y: I7 e! ^- ~7 W r( r$ y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- v, B1 f0 ?( d, ^* N" h& [! E4 ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: w% u4 }, U7 a( F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 p7 P0 c' w0 D; d* R8 e
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* R! a" U% j7 R" s$ ?7 f3 y
today.
) ^' Y/ }. Q. p) h* A0 o! a) m Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 E3 A% z' ]+ e4 r8 d H
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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