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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 Y) y- N, P* f. U. R# ^
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Market Commentary( e3 a- ]% |" A5 a, L0 `
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& g& v, A$ Z+ {& g0 LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager+ k& G; O9 a+ U9 p3 q0 E
Signature Global Advisors
( y4 b3 r; X, W. U' X- ?1 j+ R) N6 F: ^
& O- o! Y% v$ v$ J1 w" v! v0 s9 h( ?  c! Y- q$ t/ q
Background remarks
2 I; c8 T, {( x9 g; B" B5 E; d Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 C$ N1 I. F; i' nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- ^4 X1 t7 c+ K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal$ T: i# h0 R1 m0 u$ r. Z3 O
adjustments.3 ^7 _( M/ ~3 m8 r3 [/ Z/ |
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 w& R  e; |- _5 L9 _  Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., m1 i7 j# d2 c* B( ?
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) U$ }, O: O) L8 o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* o* d* m) {: ~) ^ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 h: C( s/ G: p0 }2 x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 h" d5 M) x4 Z# t" e Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ F' r( y- S+ I( N2 [
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) y4 @/ d" M# N5 {. u1 \2 K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 E+ k- a  U, G3 L+ T: \9 N
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 I- g* m# ^' Q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" h$ |! c+ b6 V4 E8 e
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% K( p8 F; ~( S
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 n, o5 x/ O* o5 bimpose liquidation values.; e) ]8 g; w+ m$ Z1 b
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 R2 X; s) k6 t% ?3 y) yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." y# w! P/ X, |" T
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ W+ f5 P: p. d. [2 c% s6 @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) H6 x9 Y) C3 M5 E

# }! U$ U5 l% f- M1 B; N8 MA look at credit markets
( b. c  w8 {0 H6 Z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 c0 ]# E/ }" m7 i$ `+ fSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 ~# W0 t. @  y: x5 N0 v; G4 | High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ P  D  b- T0 U: N' J) w$ dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: ?" A9 X+ n# ]billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, ^! C9 M; f/ l) M) Y8 b( caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' G, b; p, n# \# ~. c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 @9 j; i& `, u% ?$ R
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 {3 `2 d* [+ P; \. H Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: [& U* G6 H3 g: b/ d8 Y
finding financing.+ s3 |9 P8 P+ E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 n, h- G, w. i2 Q3 _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 r+ q  V5 I+ z) X# N7 l Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ ~2 P% j% u" x1 s- ~6 D- yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 s5 s6 J' O9 T& {9 Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! U. j  j' O) R6 {% q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* h5 g% }5 q7 l5 I! A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; I6 [! K9 N; `( K2 s/ I4 F! W
today.; z! I2 u) A  ?: \, ]
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* W' t5 \! b* Z% n" {" m
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 T, E" m3 V; @2 ^& \8 l Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 |. R% b& r* E
the Greek default.# u# k, {* y6 c
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' j4 Y9 p9 j# V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 i% Z; V1 p" g  }: @. b2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' u# ]4 j  b2 C/ R) F5 Ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 ~" _7 N6 Y5 p3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing* K: |0 D, t3 Y) s
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! n& y) v: h' @! ?% s3 C1 P( I  M
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.9 U4 V  F" ~# H, @2 m' x

0 f9 W! R2 A$ E" C# QBeyond Greece
, _& a9 C8 L/ X" ~, H& c The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  l& ?6 P! d& L% |: `3 q% ~) ybut that was before Italy.
% W# V/ h0 ]3 W8 L5 r6 m" U5 T# Z It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% s4 ^: v9 P7 U7 x8 q% |6 M
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  W. \' B, _$ kItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% ]0 V" O7 Y7 |6 x% E% \  d' i

3 A7 D) G9 D0 l3 A0 zConclusion, Z4 N$ @6 G- L" }
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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