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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary' v, c( i/ L5 z* Z2 l3 q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ x& o4 T1 r3 Q1 Y! J; @
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: Q6 ?  z; c4 g: DSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
0 H  a! M& |1 O Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 d: S; e/ H* y' @! k5 D4 F9 ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, n: b, P: e9 ~5 J4 P6 d* q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; g! [( [: a6 d  P) yadjustments.
5 o0 r4 y0 B, [* w  v2 ? This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" {) t0 x+ B' |, ]- K, P# Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) k2 D- }8 C; ?* Z
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) B6 {" E6 p) p2 q) I7 H
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 C2 p3 g9 H+ f+ o
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" N6 F  C5 V4 V0 T3 [) [% P4 X/ e: ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; m& b6 R: M* B8 R1 R Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: b3 r  r9 w2 Q  G$ _# n3 L
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  X! [7 I/ x$ h3 l
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. {: k" ~: ^/ N" E Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; G% [) ?, W& w; f4 i" D2 G
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation7 `2 W$ @1 j3 a; W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% A8 u+ V3 d& {" N' Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( n/ y; |, O5 K$ j
impose liquidation values.+ r" p$ r3 ~" H7 z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! M' K# l2 ]: W6 K; f) |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# D' [, b/ P- T/ N0 [7 C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' n6 e8 Q4 E: R- J2 T7 l5 Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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) Y1 N1 W" o: T" q3 i7 C, uA look at credit markets1 y" u3 e" w- G, s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 |7 u8 E) {# A( `8 O, ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) d1 }' d% q3 H4 q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% {, }( W8 Z6 q2 ?. d! w0 f
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* F( ^  r9 O/ e& s+ K% ], R
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ n8 i. s* y2 {1 N. a4 x) T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! C$ @& Z9 f1 k/ H' T/ U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 o* m' l. s* B% ?  @' u7 Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 M+ d- O) L+ t# N0 p: d7 q  U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: w# W3 T# g8 G8 [! }/ Q6 j
finding financing.0 m- E, i+ |: M  O; J
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; R  Y2 w+ N* A& x. s* y8 F$ H2 H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ Y- u/ [, I% B  B9 p- |/ I Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 v% U  k& x5 C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 G8 C7 E8 X* P; S& q$ dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 H9 W9 A  G8 l: \& vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 w  `. k6 L3 @2 s3 l European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 D: k* y/ z* `2 ytoday.
( Q# L3 [8 _- R9 s/ y- P3 w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; q4 G: D) U9 B  J0 U/ G. Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% a, M( R% @. @: x1 H2 b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, u: L# Y2 U$ o. G
the Greek default.
7 i8 l4 A( a0 f8 V1 X As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- m8 q7 n- z  ~" p" X
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 k' {4 R: }3 f
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign+ G- q  o% D# V$ R/ V6 E8 ^
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.) o* V" r, \* r8 c0 }1 ^$ w, u
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) r% g2 R3 w6 r- f7 ]7 L2 R
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 n5 }$ K: v# ^- i' g4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece) Z) [, x7 U, ^4 l
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& t# W4 d' l5 L! S0 C& C: b* D0 gbut that was before Italy.
8 x0 L  M3 p4 U; n It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# p/ W0 t9 j" g, k) O  U4 R5 a! {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# }$ h2 D  K+ s( Q1 `
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
7 P. `" ~  M2 {) d: m We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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