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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation# `7 X* s' i0 q+ K, P
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
K; X4 J9 i1 w. M; ]+ @: Q; K- Mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ A+ S5 x2 N/ [6 ]5 U @impose liquidation values.
/ L9 ?7 e. L" C! N7 j9 w In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 b: D% D% H4 M" z* }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) U- H0 U% M. s \* ?
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ k( I% {/ ^% L. f3 w* p5 @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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, I2 J' ^# s2 S# {$ X7 g5 DA look at credit markets
$ B9 v9 J% }: \; ?* X4 p1 P/ Q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 C) m/ V- B0 a& n# X8 B4 I! N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 I% \2 R9 c; G High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% \' G* i0 g1 s1 u) T5 B4 qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 k8 f0 w4 {8 y. T$ J$ w# u! M `* i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 q+ _. C+ [) b! t' g
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# o. s W0 z/ E+ z8 E& R/ tCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 O, M/ g+ x. fpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! K2 d) O8 v2 ]$ J# M+ m) w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 T3 B4 |" g/ h" L2 W4 \5 u
finding financing.7 f7 ~+ P2 H# A9 ~! u* w |
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 r0 A: X* G# Z) c0 ?6 M2 kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 \& F: Z5 K- M4 r; H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# _! @3 K7 Z( e1 f5 U
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; p5 o! O3 ~! t0 R) W6 T/ L, p
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) T! T7 B1 X) F) D. V
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., U, D: a5 |% C4 w6 q8 v3 f
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; y" s+ g# u; C; a7 Q% c5 T* [/ Y
today.1 v# e7 q( T& t- {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ w; j6 K: q# u/ {% a
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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