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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
  u2 D3 O2 V& V/ c" P! G. nEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 E: O- J! D# j1 j6 VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 ^9 E  K$ \  C6 Y
Signature Global Advisors- P3 H3 |# K! r! S1 r9 j

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6 o( [1 G; h6 d$ b& TBackground remarks2 {9 p# Z: `4 A" @, m
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ G2 ?  k) m( `3 z! h, {! m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# O9 e( z, N% h Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& L$ }" x( v; R/ u
adjustments.
  T. s  X  \, G+ m This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; t. b7 D6 M0 S% m  M
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 T- F. d4 {9 Q1 E8 s8 a  c3 ` Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% ]( R; F; Y3 |' ?# X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& T. Q3 X3 Z2 E8 V We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 Q/ w4 t' I& h: ?1 i7 Ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 S: b. \9 B- |- {" M2 h( a# X
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! \) I3 ?! e8 U. p
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) d9 K6 r  E' G8 x- h) } Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. Q, d; `- ]. ]/ L' g Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! [( m/ E+ x0 [' F; W2 qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& `8 B! }- \' \5 z7 O' o3 O The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; c) \0 z7 _# F+ q+ D7 Y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 K$ B  Q' ?% A7 r7 himpose liquidation values.
' [0 Q" g  V  W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- q7 K( |+ b/ T0 C6 ?August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* B' |6 u0 y+ k0 R The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 G; W3 c. s) T) t8 j, h2 @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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$ f5 w& ~1 k% ~& vA look at credit markets
/ \  T. u0 u3 S# @4 {. ~) ~: L Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 l1 Z+ \5 R6 }# M3 C% K+ ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( X9 A; h9 b: M9 K% ?
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 Z  \0 j% i/ I( Wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) t) C5 W7 P2 A, K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' q6 b0 P5 F, Qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. f* Z- Q4 V) L1 [0 M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 j4 Z$ B/ v" c0 J2 a0 ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 I  P. N- p6 b4 Q/ r2 G
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# w0 R0 [( u  G6 i- Q! Q
finding financing.; w' z. g# t. c9 C# p1 N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. E- S8 _- D  {- B/ F7 s0 c  e' @were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ M1 h0 e( h% \& c Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% d( L: l! O5 w' `is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" I4 a" a5 I- [; w2 ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  q  o, b) E" _! F7 P3 T
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" w" t5 M) e8 U' V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain# Q5 u% A* }, \" e2 `) O4 |' p% s
today.; ~% I/ @/ }$ T  V  a) Z: m
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( G2 l  O3 O8 M( c% ^$ nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. _4 {" h% a$ |$ W7 D) \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. l7 h3 [5 A; }% n' I6 y4 h1 ?, X
the Greek default.
& x) ]9 s! l" ~* ]( k7 ]; q; j. Q' l6 t# H As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* [2 K; J! q- O2 m1 q) y5 g# b
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 r# |' q: B& _: W) G
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign; D/ V, {5 k+ C  O/ N
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 I, e( O" J2 G3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 m8 ^2 u$ V# K4 Q, i% k7 \6 B
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years0 n, R+ T  _& C) M2 X- X, u
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& l% F; z4 b0 j7 w0 Z
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Beyond Greece# `/ C/ v' Z7 `' `
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
7 ]4 N+ `( d' D- w' mbut that was before Italy.
1 C/ c/ Z/ b" G# c! Z It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 _8 P6 ]2 J8 j; h It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 I% q: ?6 C' b: k  S1 d. Z
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
  n0 u- H/ o6 g) a% L! c! ? We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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