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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
9 }2 p$ j: ~9 a$ W3 f The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 x( y! P+ o! _& Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- E, b& t) [7 S3 U0 c( J! d4 x. C
impose liquidation values.$ A v9 P& W% ]. X" I/ d
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ I, \. s: m/ Q3 ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 Z+ g' F7 i/ C- _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- D4 H) h! H# b/ hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 h" e: r# b2 M; \& r" p- a; T: f
I3 [9 F; p3 |3 W2 k# TA look at credit markets
& B9 \. E% A. E7 f: ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 B7 i# c- m$ _- q+ _
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- b; V* s) A# |' W/ [4 a. l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" r* A1 k6 T. Athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& \4 Z- m4 i/ a7 Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. S0 j1 m: s$ H" Z* I" s
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. R4 a& x. ?. N% \* e6 l+ `/ MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
+ l0 F8 }8 S6 j/ W- Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 u4 ]2 O/ O! g6 @2 f
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, G, J9 ]# d7 ~ Yfinding financing.
- M7 S# j G! p | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ u9 W9 J+ d8 g. w$ _6 `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. R+ c& ~- O& _7 r- o9 ]% k+ U7 X" o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! I& c; ~4 ]& {& W$ o1 E
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 p! ?) t p8 Q2 v+ f/ [
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, L$ C' A! `8 M2 j7 J! W8 N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; D& }! h1 X9 a7 f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! Z% ^/ G5 X' u' n! n& h/ Y2 jtoday.' w P' M# k- L9 d$ Q; g3 O% U: @# z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% u' U& v+ n4 L" _ Yemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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