埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3773|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
) R9 k9 h# f7 p' S' w% y& t$ u3 y& V* {  d* u9 e
Market Commentary
& Z- ]0 O& Z" r8 G# QEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer; ~) K4 z# H2 ]1 B" x3 |1 j2 u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 ^1 U+ B* L! n( Y1 N) n; Z1 o
Signature Global Advisors
- ]2 L, F6 ^2 A: e; @5 R9 p; \4 w; j) C! t, o5 R

  M+ p( T8 c) f, W! G& W- t$ FBackground remarks. j" z  O' x5 _" F2 _
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are7 x+ v6 y' |. H! y/ y: d
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 `- K! q, d, L) a3 N* s5 ]3 i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* ^4 V& m+ F' T1 Y* z
adjustments.
7 G5 a9 c% u6 p0 a This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ n  V9 q6 {% K8 o4 W" _, {% R8 _safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
' S+ O+ |  G' I* x8 z0 k& ]8 D/ x5 A+ S Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 V7 v* s6 |3 Y( x  hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- O7 M$ E  p+ j; d: A- d( \
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& h3 B% Y# j5 |& T$ Y/ [9 l
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.* d8 @; U% d/ s5 Q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s  x6 E: N4 R' u, B+ D! Z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( R0 ^- H" m8 w( w: V
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' O1 H2 ~% y. ^5 R0 k0 v
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. t6 l) a6 e5 v2 ~! t7 Y0 x1 breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 t% ^/ M& O6 R4 V5 ]+ Q% Q$ |+ E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  S3 V3 z/ c% T$ ~
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, {! g9 o- \3 ^2 Z0 k+ |
impose liquidation values.$ w- D) X" [7 U- R6 n. N6 m3 e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& ?) P, }" ?" G( S. a- VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: ?; B, d3 S; @) @# F; \ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 C0 a/ b! L/ x0 D. r9 v
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
& E8 T( j8 ]/ I/ k" r' U& ~/ u) W9 ~/ w. Y6 V
A look at credit markets: Z+ _% w% _$ s* g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  ?! R) B: R! e1 F6 NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( V$ E# P# q2 N. p* O- \9 g, Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ v$ j/ M: h3 ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ F) S- ^' _0 L9 k$ [2 }' zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ N) g: z$ `0 k4 V/ a% a: p- raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# _! Q& `4 `0 ^  u, ]& \CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 k& W3 a- J* Y$ m- h6 p
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., x; f- L% X! H8 n* F: v  O& ~- M5 t
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' \3 y' D0 t9 Yfinding financing.
, V: d8 Y) t8 S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ n4 n5 _! H9 K8 o; J$ Lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." D6 t" I9 h3 g7 v% P) j# d
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 }& z# U2 u  C( f( M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ d4 `- k. R5 X& Z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% N" j3 B/ c+ g, x
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' s9 m# I0 D+ C! R& R8 ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ p: }: X6 I# G, Y) \- ztoday.0 t; p4 J" N+ J4 C4 `
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( L- V& [; W. z% ?6 g, Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 d) }% n) Z5 c9 Q! v. B5 ?5 r5 p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ R' G8 v% E7 D
the Greek default.2 i* c/ m2 g3 b2 T- I& A
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' @9 h$ s3 \/ P& u1 `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 n5 v) Q1 p/ S  ?) f0 M2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 l, r: \9 z- s% T- r& mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; |+ ?' s7 o  w. f8 m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 X$ x" q. A! s1 G# r9 \banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" H  a4 L" M1 {2 W" X2 O1 k* J
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
4 E1 t8 B* j6 K& w% G- ]3 E7 d! J9 j5 j( L: E7 X' }
Beyond Greece% ^3 C9 \* I- J/ k, t
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! B# o" [2 G) `& m3 E5 @7 @) U
but that was before Italy.* y, K, W0 B& T7 l. T' t* k
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 Q% c# N$ h, w
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 q1 r6 u: Z( v4 p3 ~7 c6 s) u
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
) K' ?; q: }' s9 m. M3 @8 I) b! l# A9 F5 f* C$ K
Conclusion3 `6 q. R5 \# W/ P9 h/ R# \% }; U
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-29 09:30 , Processed in 0.239507 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表