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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# \* A# o/ y" G5 W2 y$ @$ N/ q

3 |1 @1 o& m: Q; h% c# p' cMarket Commentary; E0 p. j$ h3 v
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" K" A% y3 H9 R* S9 v/ D! ]' lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 y6 d8 A1 N0 M+ k0 r/ d3 C
Signature Global Advisors: U- Q+ Q; _& [; b5 }0 n" Y
6 _/ j1 Y. r( J  q" d  G' S  B

1 t; C- I+ Q0 T$ G* T5 hBackground remarks
! W$ I( H2 P$ x6 I1 S1 X$ G Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are' I  K4 L; D$ b  O: _) h
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' x: z( G+ E: s; b7 R& i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* u8 s) S3 r' |( Badjustments.+ P" G+ I9 l. e3 z
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" p- {/ D# o" o
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.$ D( R4 t8 L9 O1 |
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* i, P0 f$ t+ Q. S' llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 ^+ {( |, o. R0 s1 L: C
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) r7 Y+ b; P$ g3 @' X% y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 ]# `  }- `3 i
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 _4 X/ N+ `! _* b+ o
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! n8 ^9 G8 {- m, p( g5 E) X
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: L/ i5 q1 W+ Q( V
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- A/ [+ Q. d; x- @) Z1 |1 F5 |7 yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 ?! v2 s; |9 Z; B# g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, v+ B0 F1 L, ]* f5 ~9 B$ ^$ Ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 k: e" X5 D) Y# O7 Mimpose liquidation values., e6 Q9 f! M; j, v3 x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 i. H' k4 V" X' K! OAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 y" [0 e* j* R7 P2 T/ H7 R3 v
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 h. v2 Y4 n" C
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
: J' M9 R9 c7 ]9 v1 u$ J* o, D
" o/ \8 K* q5 H/ p" B% }- t+ v7 n7 HA look at credit markets% `- |8 _  v) l. ], m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 {, R( b/ ]2 o% `, ASeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! W% E: W/ {0 Q* P$ Q2 \/ @$ m
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) `' ?% S: @8 {
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, X0 p7 Q3 H7 Y9 ~9 t/ s4 J& P
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! T9 \2 {* i$ b' m6 Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 s* G7 |- P/ F8 z9 k  ~
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* X9 |/ c- |1 {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.; M9 c8 r$ c" J9 M
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble  i" z% S7 V% M! u. y; [' S
finding financing.
; f  m% b. `, G2 A& X9 M, V6 E: ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ P1 {) I" q0 z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ e$ e. W2 }! ]; h! O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 F8 q. \2 J! B! gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ @- ]% B1 N% xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) F$ L/ w# b% w" `/ m) n9 p6 vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ }" N- y' Q- [$ h; D' m) X- H0 D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: H& m5 `9 q0 Xtoday.
+ \! W5 h9 T( G) S' F4 v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ E3 Y) L. r8 k7 \+ \, H( q; k
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 ~' ?+ c4 A8 I: X  I* k4 S Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* T( L: r& M: S7 Q" `
the Greek default.
4 p1 @  J' a3 r6 p2 O: z$ r As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 C* \/ x8 j3 e, Q. m  T" Q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" d1 i9 q  p3 H! E; u7 g
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 c% a' u: r  y! Y+ |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# ]+ D% A) l2 m7 R4 i6 {5 p3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( r. U7 l5 O# G# c3 W( q  Xbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 m! @7 ]0 [- c) B! w6 }. l4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
- G& }3 G- v4 U% Y9 U
+ u/ C3 f$ a& E+ oBeyond Greece' W* |& ^2 [: F, U, ^" g3 y3 b
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 L: Y: u+ o7 U5 G
but that was before Italy.& g! Q4 C% ]* A% }9 M( A
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* P' a, w$ p/ X) J. G' E- N7 S
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; z/ _2 ?3 u+ x# a% A6 d! |# j
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; p  M4 X  ~! J. R' B7 j4 r
5 l* v$ n" k+ _( G2 r5 G  l( A
Conclusion
" v' W1 u: y- ^5 X We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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