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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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" S/ u* F# ^) VMarket Commentary
! _3 w( O) E7 R1 Y0 h, `Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 y. I# b7 ~4 `& P) W- M
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 P$ D& `6 W5 `) q% s( I
Signature Global Advisors# L: {% j+ C8 q
' \9 [# \3 A9 c2 d& S  k
6 x5 U5 P2 H. u; L0 l
Background remarks" N) D9 k' D  y% X. S& ]4 m7 D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 g& B5 q: X) `4 [, ]4 H7 Cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& b2 m1 B7 B9 I
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 K* G3 M& u4 i& S" s8 v
adjustments.: i" T2 n  E: Q# T
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 F5 ^6 j$ w: Z: M  i& {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" h. Y  w9 J0 |) T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 n: S6 ]8 O; F1 X: l* B: k6 {' ~
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 l! j5 P4 n% W; `! c
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ L7 P- N) E- v( q* L
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 \( l# i- Z% k" `9 T/ \0 e
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) Z" U8 I7 f( b0 _, K1 V8 m
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  w3 q2 E# L6 W; o1 }% j# n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 I# w6 m0 B$ \5 v5 i3 C4 _& k% B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# U9 V2 h' p# h% y* Mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* u) M- q, V% f5 ^! w8 F The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 C2 C  z6 d4 _5 B+ H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ K- v, }5 _$ w5 [+ }  q4 Rimpose liquidation values., ~" _  n- ?7 I% A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ T8 ^9 X% c: w; r& P6 SAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! ?6 g/ }% y5 W8 C# R0 m+ [: X1 ^% T0 i The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ k; A: W) t& z+ I; O+ a, T- l6 Z1 _scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 y4 W1 H  A6 XA look at credit markets
9 F. k  i7 z% @" ]; b2 G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: V0 P( s6 X; u9 x8 g$ y+ I+ D* ySeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ |- P! |: M! @& r% u2 N0 Y& `6 n- v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( O+ a5 ^9 v9 H4 U! ~then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& d! E, V7 e6 V  [billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 j0 D: a" m& u, G3 Waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" s4 c  v- I; N# Y  _. u; m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# N8 Q, J8 O/ g4 O! M9 X3 `& a) a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. J5 F& A; S5 e. r) A. B1 I3 m. m
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" u7 C! _* Y1 e& r( B3 u7 ~
finding financing.4 s4 Y. `2 a5 T5 P5 a% A
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 y- @) s& n: a4 [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 p. i  y* x; w1 u+ W5 W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 x9 I9 L- R! I1 Y8 f
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; a) C* Y5 @4 M
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) T( K9 _6 [! j7 e! d3 F& {
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 D( k0 S; G5 l: A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 s: L7 m+ ?! V9 s, Mtoday.  v$ C/ r  U; k' T) U3 C9 P& E
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 g' v  A( Q0 s7 Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* ?7 |; I5 m' w
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 b$ o8 a, z) `  b6 t/ ~the Greek default.
# ]5 M% z$ G$ n; _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! S& `8 d* M+ w1 i! {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; P5 [, K; S! B) H) ~& y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ b, k$ X9 q; O* v- \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 g1 ^- R3 a% q5 y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 o  B9 A2 b) T  n( ~( Sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 U/ v0 o9 o: s2 L% j
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% l$ D6 P! B+ u3 I  ]
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Beyond Greece
6 s, O- e1 u$ U( v; `( K: [ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; `' ^9 S! W, q' d+ ~
but that was before Italy.
; l$ T5 z# `+ @1 k) s It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS., H- V0 D9 F/ C1 R5 @8 [
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& l7 O9 Z- t( g6 x6 e4 ~Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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/ V% _/ m; u  s1 u) H6 C3 @# cConclusion
# M' N/ }1 ?0 ?2 i; V! C We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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