埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3944|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- a9 G1 {& W# ?7 R
- N& |& q: Z0 O9 l' y
Market Commentary5 v& }* d  O3 n  N; q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 I* B, R9 p# \6 \1 G( b3 ZJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- Q1 o1 V# q' K) OSignature Global Advisors5 A; n4 L5 l" i3 j) P% s  W+ z9 B

5 s( j# a5 l, e3 {' d% j6 R( ~( R# w8 p
Background remarks
' j$ F* Y5 ^( Q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are* @+ d7 R; f5 u9 I" ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 V) k) o# ?& Z Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 |9 m1 o7 m( d8 K$ T5 y$ c: eadjustments.
/ {. Q8 V1 N$ i5 _% [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 T" S! M! ?6 hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 Y; C- Z; F4 l4 W( s" j
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 V1 u9 z. D: wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% L6 @. n( p' A% Y8 x/ O) z9 `2 t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% u$ _& }4 F1 B  f" C. e% S# C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 D2 X" B4 `$ x& i. t* v+ Y' O+ y/ y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ E5 {# b/ v+ Q8 G& H
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. j& U6 @! O* P: R2 I) f Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 V; e" d( w' ^  Z/ w6 @$ I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" B3 B7 x+ e. Q! P0 C# h8 D5 t) }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( Y  W- F& u5 s3 N; \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 G+ W0 t% y' m2 I0 B4 k$ I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( F; ?* Z4 Q. G$ Q5 Aimpose liquidation values.' K2 R* A/ F( n) ?* r3 ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  v# d/ W( o7 l/ {; x+ }9 J6 j% I* ?
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 V& S* C' M% X( a# ]% ?: a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. b5 Q' P2 A! j: G# W6 h$ Q2 z1 M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
9 A; w3 Q0 o  }. o; d# F2 j2 p7 p- D$ j  C0 q
A look at credit markets
. x% V& D4 m& Y" D- \, M1 D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% A- S9 G( j. A$ P- W0 ^. T
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 p% ^/ u! E! Y; ^2 f; U High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ I1 O% T2 a3 o% R6 }then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $13 m& f' ^/ l4 q; Y3 Q* c! j- B
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 u5 N/ n9 V+ B3 O! Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. @+ F- T4 U. ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  J  U  b. p% U: j- g; B/ X. wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ N9 d6 X  [# a) G$ V, v4 {3 Z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# R7 T, s9 h: V# `2 C8 pfinding financing.; P# a1 a# I7 g4 d: P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% n! ^, y: b0 a( P$ g) n% j2 Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 B4 f) H. P4 H( C& M
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
) j; w. r+ F* Qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 F+ ?% U, q% A+ ?& E. d3 j1 i, w7 ?going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" A, s3 m& X1 c2 h' m
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. K% G& h. @& T8 l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 x, M  C; `3 ?7 Btoday.
8 G, n' L* e, Y! C Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: E5 T  m: [$ N& Eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% _$ ?9 Y, {# H/ |3 h5 m: C! ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ m9 X/ u+ p& R$ t6 `the Greek default.
: {% }, `  K: @! w  P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* z: f, K" R/ `6 w' ~+ e0 g( @1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default8 q; U# B: R- o2 w8 v1 a7 e% s0 e
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% s  r- {/ _  t0 |2 n
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 q2 A- t1 _6 t9 w1 K5 G  w7 U8 _  H3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing& t0 ~' x; u) ?2 \
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- |$ }% o8 ~) g; f2 S3 S" V; w8 P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." B; s3 z8 ~$ A0 f! k
0 Z% [* A- }: L* k* Y3 i- a0 _% f
Beyond Greece
8 i: U: v4 g  }( x$ a The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' _7 P9 G/ O! w# h$ _* W' v: m4 w1 b
but that was before Italy.) a4 b# Z4 ?( R1 @
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. i% @8 n1 {# [. \. ^9 I0 V It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 G% o# e. i4 B0 m0 s* j  M9 S
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! J  O# Z7 ?! b, n. C

9 H* ?  w1 a7 _( E* W) JConclusion" g& G/ L, o! N! H* a; z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-9-18 19:56 , Processed in 0.376318 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表