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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 F/ \6 Z4 x+ l- u' `& O( X

) n6 [( ~. L  F( @7 U# a9 U; ^# SMarket Commentary
3 u  M6 |* N) T1 U: R3 aEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- b7 S7 F( I$ B/ x  `- p& ?( j
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager/ N5 ]( V, p" M; @) L8 T- E/ p/ x
Signature Global Advisors; T, _9 p+ a% _

2 {8 v9 M! \7 q  Y* Q; q: T* c. i% J; D" ^6 C* Z; |' y1 e
Background remarks9 ~# C& ?* j1 B8 s
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ q, D- n1 P8 j2 j( p# p5 J- `4 vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 d% f2 Q. R( k5 E Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: x( V, W- E, zadjustments.5 z1 }2 X1 V: Q) ^2 w
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 e$ _7 M" r8 j) J. ?4 a
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 I  I) a& f# W9 n* N) }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: d' n- r( r. k+ S# l/ Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 A5 X0 s8 W( w  n& j6 K We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 c4 k6 m: p; P9 b7 G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
4 g2 }# s0 D4 z1 \3 j) |% B1 _ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! L6 G7 Q( C. b  V
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- W$ s- b) r* [0 F
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 z. [7 N* A5 c4 k% I1 ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- h/ a* _- d8 wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' n& b/ e2 h+ F: D The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ y" l# O# h3 w# B7 T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" U! V% ~; p4 N# X6 W* fimpose liquidation values.- a! q6 n* D; w  _, Q- g; T: g1 v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; c; i- z2 o" ]8 e
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 |3 s+ U- \/ h. f4 N! z: ^2 k8 c The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& O4 E; X+ }9 `, M9 l- A0 H, Q% V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. E% ~* x( `/ [. E' `
# i7 Z' J4 z2 L8 V
A look at credit markets
% p. T2 G% [7 }' L4 M2 j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% Y7 N, A7 u8 b1 R7 Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. |. G$ ~4 V9 }* w# Y3 I High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: c: J5 p9 ^1 b" y+ F, u  D
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, Z6 Y7 ~' S8 hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; G2 i7 s. d/ }' N8 `/ T( T, m! @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# P& x6 H/ L; @9 M8 p+ z7 N# d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! `& }0 |; _* Npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& D( A; B, R% _4 U+ m
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  H7 q* r  y: ]finding financing.
! i* q: X* K8 B+ k4 [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 Q0 E1 \4 J* T7 m4 a2 b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! a0 }, Y5 R& P3 e8 z" k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! Z( d: p" d8 D5 k, ?7 J9 D* Cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 y+ f" x, ?: o* {# f' x0 N+ H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 R4 a% M6 S) Q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- G  }7 P% s$ L7 l& R. B- c0 g European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' ]9 b9 h* g' ]
today.  ]" `, D3 _2 {; i2 r) `" K
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 _- M+ \' {  H9 Q) Xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 r" `5 f$ g) q5 ]3 s Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( V/ ?' x( a; B% @the Greek default.0 X# w& L- D/ f$ g2 @$ o
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) x* ?/ r, [, p7 X$ W! L1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" p. b; ?6 R( j3 t/ q; i- \
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% I3 s% g& Q' v* n9 E; o
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* f6 V1 p2 M* o; {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 I6 i7 {" q8 x% t7 V( I4 D
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 ~7 y$ s% i9 U6 x4 K" H4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- l% x6 f) G- d& G

5 n; ]1 U: O, C: p+ s7 g5 }% O7 LBeyond Greece7 v  e) u2 |* ]
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# p, i8 I0 i; ubut that was before Italy.
- q# p# F# E. i9 y! C  H6 O It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( _$ ~- A' s' x3 ^- d5 d8 z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  \& \5 q8 V( @$ y2 N
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
. i6 c* N" d4 b& z3 m. c3 z/ R+ p$ l8 |, l" b
Conclusion  P- {" A3 l3 A* S( B
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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