埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3451|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
& [6 Z8 E* r2 X2 V9 o! U" f- F8 q7 a1 s1 i
Market Commentary
8 ^! }5 e; d# b9 SEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( _7 ^/ A" G! ~5 @' W; t3 NJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  ]0 ?4 w% S. N% ^Signature Global Advisors4 Z0 n$ Y1 L  [! h6 r& F) h8 |4 n5 c8 m

! A0 Z! z  d+ \1 k+ p6 C" N+ z- z5 N# y2 [9 v
Background remarks7 G$ m# G0 x+ P5 S) e+ ?; l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 B0 S* g3 j" |3 u! h& \) M0 H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 R8 t' R/ t& I/ i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; j+ Y' g' {" K' s; \. N. nadjustments.! X, ~8 y  Y% a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social1 V: x$ U( }) y; T* V0 j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) u5 `; U0 T) h; O+ ]; \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* L+ {: R0 t7 G1 O/ |+ ]
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ q+ x5 ~  ]+ \  x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" C" a) _1 `2 Z. ]
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% X1 O: @1 ]  |" ~ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 i0 W' N+ _2 Q& V: I1 T8 B
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, I; c2 S4 g) h' B' P, a* E/ @ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  O- I$ ?5 Q. S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) V9 o; b& R3 ]6 X( V1 e2 n
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, w2 u0 f, ]/ c( M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ `$ |9 R6 _% i+ M2 X+ Y7 ?as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 B6 y% [4 e5 e( {
impose liquidation values.7 o5 Z3 [8 _+ f7 e) `( r8 D
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  v& `' s; D) }: uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 M* g" P# I8 P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) v  D6 j* Q5 K! M5 B% T% o  Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
8 F0 v/ g- e% g& O* J2 Z& C6 `4 Q8 H  U/ x' G1 e1 ]+ A
A look at credit markets& Z% H" \* E' N) y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) J* Z% J) ?# j+ ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 A+ o" ]; ^  d6 s& R High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ X; V# ], S5 P" d" a- _
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! E/ u6 A6 z1 Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 o$ \  j( D' w8 J- ~# [# f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ k$ W/ [# k2 M3 L$ \CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! ^" o$ @8 c5 N4 Z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." H% W) _( W: A  d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  ~& K8 A% c& T8 U- [finding financing.
' A8 a7 w; H, J' A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 _5 N- f2 Q/ P& {& ?% i' f0 `were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' a6 K, v, S) Z5 x
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" e* ~$ |( y3 t8 I6 `
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, F/ k  v& v1 q5 v$ Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 N6 [# A" i. c/ |0 Obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  G3 |9 X8 W# K7 ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 R* f9 s' i) N6 _* U' f8 r, L. @today.2 f8 x8 x  V, q& K6 _7 s/ F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 ?6 J4 P9 b2 {1 W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( c; R- q* j' `# J1 E+ C1 ? Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# b8 m& b, k, C# ethe Greek default.  i, J& y* H" w+ w" V
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! K7 s5 I- G9 g- G" w
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! o0 J6 U8 M+ ?' q; L6 X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; A8 H, a& s3 ~+ n9 R: `# K+ jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.; I" Z; I! d, c: p9 m* b  S: l) o
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 K% c; |/ b1 \9 ?; [+ Pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( ^0 n( X( W/ `4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 u7 V' j) c% I- u+ Y
3 R( n2 J2 S9 A8 O; D: f1 g: G
Beyond Greece* R2 L7 H5 F, L8 M* p
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 k. C2 q+ e1 j- H! a
but that was before Italy.# _( X# {; ^: n$ c' ?
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 ^# y# j* ^, W7 X3 T
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. _' e+ v- C% o# E3 AItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: b9 a+ j$ U! G" F& }; T
0 m; E0 ]0 _$ r" @; \& e$ _0 K
Conclusion6 Z2 l" T, k8 {/ O2 W( e
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-7-13 08:53 , Processed in 0.113315 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表