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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation* }! v- N1 P1 }- _6 l
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# S1 R/ P9 H3 l: x, H9 R# ]) m6 m8 C
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% `! o& @9 X ]. i
impose liquidation values.
; K5 t( M6 r. X7 H+ f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ R% z, i. H p3 z6 s# D+ o+ h5 B2 C
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ U9 D Z% P' o: l, L s& O% u7 q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 c5 h4 ~/ p. dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ V0 d) b0 N+ |% x$ k" Q
4 Y4 g" Q( L% W; B$ |3 ]A look at credit markets h: L/ d& V, \5 _7 w
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# @/ q0 q, s4 m u8 v: c2 T
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 ]8 ~' I+ i# A& q2 T( Q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" @; u( S8 z4 v4 ]9 j3 q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 M0 g! u4 Z$ I2 n0 G# V! ?" ]9 n a
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. [5 N4 |; z9 ?. G2 G3 gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( x8 c, n( ?$ ]# I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
T" g% d7 p! b7 i4 o. R2 n! ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) ~: L6 G( k0 j5 {7 _3 ^0 Q* J) d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" `2 j8 q9 ^! |* O' o! v r! Nfinding financing.# U8 _$ e) R, p4 {; U* i) B
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ b2 A! ^# s* m: N* ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( \+ g- ` j7 W6 V2 J" n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 l) f+ d4 h/ x: k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( q! I. C; r7 u4 L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( \7 `: ]9 N+ L# h0 W& T. P5 @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 d* k0 T% N& ^" }- S8 z, N
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 U6 t8 F3 O* t$ ?+ Y
today.
& Q* e1 E* N( g) s, R# F. @ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 Y* _% F; c. w. W+ _emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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