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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: U0 |: A' B3 T! q9 x
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Market Commentary( \' w, P2 E6 F& C; s
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* V1 \6 w' e; W4 c1 B+ P
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) p9 z( U. s9 |2 X$ q% j6 XSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
  G* k6 A" L* s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 d: T9 J2 Y7 _+ U1 q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ R0 J, z" O$ a7 A Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 u: _8 g( V& F& X2 g" S
adjustments.
# f5 ?# l' I: A9 R6 P; U# r6 b; _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 Q. j! J6 h0 V: C4 f9 M' P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 e' e, c$ {5 g# w3 t6 s Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- `; D9 K0 d# |* B/ Ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- v# I! D$ D0 p# [
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  Z1 ~/ i+ y( L7 m3 e! W0 N$ J8 h
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( b" g, N- \% X* ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 p' U, {. Z1 Pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' A9 a3 k" f; l5 W
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 ?3 H4 i8 X  Z' X; F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 z- o9 m$ ?, ~; ?- @reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& `- C4 H% b3 Q+ }$ S5 U0 s9 ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" f: Z' e8 H3 |! X% l5 I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 R7 [4 }3 u' q0 v
impose liquidation values.
% U& y  g. {+ u9 y! h4 b7 g, l In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 r( p4 [4 r" o9 ?
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- _- u9 q! o" M2 B* Q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 Y( y6 b6 C5 w0 _scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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1 f; e& k1 L' X: ]8 ?" vA look at credit markets" Q* h8 Z3 {# o4 u  c' u
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 I0 e& q$ ^# O6 J2 d; wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) I4 y. A, P2 V& D+ Z: |4 ]  I High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: Z: b( L  }" z& ^% ?then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 w9 ~, _' E  z; K1 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# Y6 I! r+ r5 O  u  I! e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" P4 z  {4 v. z, Q& B6 {! c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 s1 L' K) a/ h9 {) b% b' }positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, G% E4 g% x! H, k  g8 D: Z: f Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* @* Y% y$ C; ~" u. C/ W/ ~finding financing.
+ J8 Z3 f* P$ ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- G! ?0 G7 C  @4 l6 [0 z# m
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! S' Y0 }/ n0 N  E
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 |3 F, k1 r% l6 Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, ~0 x7 b; O5 e/ K* Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! l* h6 c4 T! m' ]% f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 E2 S8 P$ A  t8 l# }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 X# B7 q# h- m5 D. `. Q1 i2 q: Ytoday.
4 L$ j; _/ a! L5 Z0 o, g Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- M9 b' Q4 I  ^' r: i% eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 S& j) t# h! a5 j. b  q
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# D" Y% e; O& U+ E1 J7 N9 C! Q7 b
the Greek default.
) u2 i. j8 g6 S- _" ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& A. }1 a1 I+ G9 h1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 p) Y# ^4 B0 ?- B
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 s3 ~  Q' e' c1 }
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 q1 o5 g( N" c: D) w4 L3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# H2 c4 `, c8 p4 \
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 K+ W* g5 ]& q" A* y8 \8 C) Y4 c
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ \7 K7 l3 z7 x7 W- B" j" i$ i" Q; p- N

- z8 N. |& T: C3 e% GBeyond Greece$ x3 j5 f9 D: U" Y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ v3 J$ J6 w3 m! Q# H  I4 Jbut that was before Italy.
3 @! f* J# m  X5 a& Y3 E7 U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." b, p+ |( U6 n( d
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' h) a. A- x5 rItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion& Z1 ]( ^4 W0 Z" |
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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