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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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: B$ e+ ~0 h$ u- B- RMarket Commentary
3 ?) f( V; [! |- l0 y4 wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 B3 H9 d1 {) N, X+ f2 s4 J5 ^
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 F3 f* ?/ I( G& ?
Signature Global Advisors
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; f$ H/ t1 g4 J' t; qBackground remarks
! l" J" T- S) u; X) C8 C Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) `0 f$ D" U5 n2 K1 ]3 w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 e  p- [/ Y/ K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& o6 k- D( f  Y" q  b, z
adjustments.
' w+ q6 \4 b; O0 t5 N# _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* E6 d" ~" q5 r: Gsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% [: o: I( A2 J5 ~' N7 E
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 w2 o3 q! y6 H; U+ |) l7 Z' D) Hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: Z3 K" a/ y: a* ]# }
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ y. k6 p$ ^7 yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.' V% j# e6 {. W8 g
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" v3 D7 A. K3 x  v  P' dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' j$ Q4 ^9 i3 x2 ~0 m6 q+ y& R
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; t9 r' o) B  F/ s! X8 X3 ~* J5 h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; i5 X/ c- E( j$ p& L! L; V
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 J4 N  [' g* a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ u6 J2 {$ g# v4 `0 H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" t  J5 R3 I  m8 y# p6 R( ]$ l8 E/ Jimpose liquidation values.( H4 g& L$ C" J7 S
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 B/ o; D7 k/ {% `
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& G7 K/ V8 z5 Q6 O6 B9 Y5 c# E
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' K1 a  A, i* y9 S5 a: ^' t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
: A( s" C8 D  T- p! s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& p& `4 _1 L/ o2 U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- s) t$ n) V3 \- B: b* p" |7 l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 ]: `( G: {1 T7 Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ s2 t7 R, x0 |5 K# w4 u! J* l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* o. N8 w5 C! ~5 V% }access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 ?, [5 i7 Q; P' B; @; ]
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 ?3 ?) E, @, s4 P; w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: w, ]3 f+ U" b- p
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, l! m  }1 \% N% }0 u$ C# n0 X
finding financing.6 F! P3 w& |+ T* `
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" i8 H! i+ w- _- ?. k; w; ~* lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: S: x: H( g- ~# L3 C& l! Y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, F8 i: M% @1 [is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ Y. g) n( }9 t
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' w* ]1 p- G7 H) G' |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., h8 ?6 h. |7 m5 T2 i9 [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. P- x+ V2 u: D& itoday.! E- X% t' d3 R$ `1 Z" e
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% ~: ~( `- P4 b. j3 ^4 Aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ L' g4 t2 y' y2 ~ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* m9 g) `9 N9 f3 `: F( Q
the Greek default.
- F7 s" D6 i& W2 P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 l: o, \' z! V# e1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. Y9 _4 y: i' j, D5 w2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' k& ~9 ^- Y) F5 S
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% z8 ^8 Q7 ]7 r  r3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing" B& f4 u. q9 K, |& ?7 A3 p  a5 x- Y9 G
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
! m8 _& A4 }& u- X4 V  h4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! W1 g8 {# C1 u" h- \
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Beyond Greece
2 U$ u1 @3 V5 N$ E/ z$ m; K8 W6 r9 v8 h The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 P3 j- Q; Q, h9 i7 Z
but that was before Italy.1 R" M+ s6 Z' N% k/ n
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ d' k4 c; S( r% T3 H$ r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. a- V6 R* m7 `! iItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* W6 q" i/ b% O. N# Z2 \6 ]3 W
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Conclusion
8 k, {- @/ z: [9 Y$ L We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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