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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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  p+ l, k$ V# W4 G( a3 Y' qMarket Commentary
3 o3 c3 c& N7 _( wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ v! G1 C2 ^& ^( m7 n: x9 P, O' B
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! y9 G5 c! q! {( p3 w2 [4 }+ B
Signature Global Advisors$ c- u: Z9 @) I  E; H4 z
2 _: Z6 {$ u$ ^6 r# J! t- c  x
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Background remarks+ |" W8 V9 U0 m5 q
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ c- ?" Y* k% H8 ]0 V& Gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% P/ O1 k* s) d9 N2 x1 {% j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal! F7 \) x9 E/ R9 Q4 h
adjustments.
. C; s4 @1 A# ^* t( i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ l  o: o' o) E$ H+ [  x  k3 c9 [" o0 Esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) [; m  n6 W. i$ [; S# v- W
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. E* b- c# E3 Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( c& C* L- c9 a% H* f) @) _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 C1 X# L' t; B7 X
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, R7 c& U8 D$ S: n6 K5 u, f Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 L2 x) G- `0 a; }3 v2 O+ d
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., q& D+ e! N$ E8 ?
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ d' [& u$ W: h1 r% t
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 `! @% g$ P- z6 C! e0 T( u* K6 U, z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# G; j& w2 r+ a( B5 ]
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( k" Z1 }8 u% g( B  n" v* t
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, q/ W( H9 X* o  n
impose liquidation values.
9 I. a: i5 Y/ _, Y/ @ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 ]1 V5 G5 G) n; ]& u, _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. H7 c8 p/ A& O0 g/ T The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: X, C  K: A" j( d/ n. c4 R: Q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. ?. D7 ~# Q* q% ~. X- s

4 a; H. E" T: f8 lA look at credit markets
+ d7 T* W" ^/ S- {* i# x5 e% X: M& P Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% |  a' D0 P: r, k  V8 L3 M7 \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- g- j  @! q1 M3 m6 B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* C" W2 t# l  f' n/ U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 L- N' F( I" [' a' m9 j' bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 d: b  ~' x% ]% `access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' }- ~1 {  l8 ^7 T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  H0 o+ S' F! y: C0 Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 l9 Q) h. f# @) W: ]  M Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
9 M* ]0 y! m' |' _/ A; }finding financing.
/ s% B0 }5 a* x( e" I Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 s/ A/ X6 Z5 `2 M! nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% u6 a4 G" Q% G+ J
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; D% G4 U0 a: s! }- A
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. ]8 F- h  s# R0 Q- ?9 @going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 f, |6 R4 P; K; \' \( p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! T  z+ c; Z! ?  M6 t. q8 N
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* n9 p4 W' j: f- W/ a6 W, `- \  htoday.
6 D  Y; t. R3 e! t Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# }+ d8 A: B( Y1 D6 r2 lemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; |' I0 ~* x, V6 N+ F" v) d0 n/ i
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ S3 n, K' W4 L2 r9 rthe Greek default.
; [# q; D$ I2 v& R8 {: n6 W2 M As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( A" ?- L: b* b
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 A3 C+ s% e) q  Q, b8 y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 `4 S! W2 w: g) {9 S4 I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.& g4 C0 m: T  X4 N
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 ^) p+ A; L, {' L% J/ d% dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' l  g( B# A) P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece: s# c& I1 u- D4 a: Q6 `9 j
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 g0 G# c9 a: }1 M
but that was before Italy.
8 a- d6 a2 D( Y" l3 q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; T( _' c+ J+ c+ f% s7 z1 }+ q. @ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% G) N+ W+ y7 h/ M; T7 Y( j1 @
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 V  o( X  K7 X
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Conclusion
! q! a  O7 \8 M) b We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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