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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, ?3 T1 t3 T" k! F0 b/ }3 W

9 m3 R4 X/ L$ Y! ?Market Commentary% \/ G& c3 Z0 F* J0 H" Z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, a2 r3 r9 T8 J  F, ?' ~, g# V8 u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 {' M! [# F2 t) Z+ K; z
Signature Global Advisors! f! E8 \' \: ]4 @: G8 H+ Z
8 S. B* z. r0 ]9 ]
& }  G" J# Z+ l/ `# p% L: X
Background remarks
0 T0 a) w' I, c Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, @" b" ^% N1 p1 x
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' k, }  s+ Y8 R Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# a" U/ H, @: m+ C; v5 v  {
adjustments.
. ]" H1 _: l, M  ?! a; \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 k/ E1 ]/ t0 q7 j! q! y) Ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  U1 c9 S: y7 `5 o2 G! l* Y0 ]
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! k# t* F' }7 l/ `8 Y7 S% I! Q5 ~' Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( Y8 H, ?2 z* F9 Y7 J( s& Q, x& A$ l We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& v0 v. U- A6 I' G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) G% m& a4 W9 p4 h Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- ]. k; k  r9 Z  i0 P+ \% q2 oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: x4 v# X) c7 J4 P3 d6 d; r Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 G/ \6 A1 k& ~4 p7 B: n# g Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ v# ]6 K) f& g/ q* yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% E7 e9 z% Z  K, p9 h# d2 e The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. T8 J/ K9 ^0 T% s* Aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 J7 q: B) e7 V2 \
impose liquidation values.
$ [4 M) a6 c: j7 i2 g In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  @( n6 ~5 h0 T: C! ]" e( L
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 P1 [( ^4 d& C: S
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 v5 T1 Q4 X' z4 ?! i) Ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) i3 p, w* X* U+ Z
- I! G1 j) J; F! ?( N
A look at credit markets
$ u2 k. }- H9 V+ U7 u1 n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- l% Z+ w$ H! W, B6 E3 Q0 m* b& X# O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' n. W2 ?5 k9 g; b/ T High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 M( u  `- ^& B% R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: d- e7 ]' E) Y' i/ Lbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 z* O3 L8 `9 C: P. F% jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  S; R$ {) j# P: I  y: JCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. \- Q  r( ]( @/ Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ W" P) O9 M" I* k Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 ~/ `3 G0 L; u, j2 j& tfinding financing.
! K4 C; f" u+ |. M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: N9 X+ M4 d9 o
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' ~. C: j7 V. t( R, p1 `; ~ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 d( B1 s6 z/ M3 ]; X
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 \1 u2 R, i, Y* Zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% T( p4 J: m+ f6 P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) C# |$ x6 c- g6 |
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! c; n; j- ~4 F  y5 C& I$ \' p5 t. jtoday.
+ y6 ^) w+ p4 `; `5 U+ ?) [1 A Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: ~) T" X# ~9 Z! @3 \# s) I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 ~, [& X3 k* T( Z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 b7 O( D, {8 d; w4 B
the Greek default.2 d- D, T6 o6 D# k) e2 q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
; Z) @5 [! ?& S# \$ F% p2 [1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default' N5 u. W- X- n! O8 ^: o
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 v/ F; ], o/ J
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( D% s  d* E2 Q3 d( X) I- w4 H3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 N* R: a2 N, h) }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  ?; J% \6 u. a5 n  D) S$ j- i4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
4 f3 F/ |% L5 A( b7 R
: e! \) G( g' Z  @: Z8 z7 B3 Y) XBeyond Greece; N& i2 ?! |: r
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% u) p  b- X! q/ Z) r
but that was before Italy.. D6 O  B5 O& I! `# D% v7 e
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% U" f$ B( S. q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 u8 F) B3 Q/ G5 t2 {% yItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ z, |, Y  \4 c. i3 Z5 {: H6 Q
5 Z% ]- G: j5 i  H6 g( f6 ^
Conclusion
& M1 i0 }. t% a' `" v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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