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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& r% t+ S% Z1 m$ E  n$ V4 Z
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Market Commentary
% y  T: l$ m/ ]1 ]$ m8 kEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ [4 V' ?/ G- J0 C, ?- s
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ m' n5 X* ?0 C6 t- TSignature Global Advisors  U6 R3 i8 H1 x$ @) w; c

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! U4 `$ k- _9 P/ `Background remarks6 j" Q. f+ X" ?
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( Z* P  m; F+ s6 M$ I
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: a& `% h" K7 g  I! }0 r( ] Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' ]' O$ B4 R5 o
adjustments.. X- p4 B5 L% k8 r8 `) r+ R& U
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 f/ y4 A4 `) _safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. t% D0 `  U; S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 y3 B- `5 N; D5 S9 W* w! t
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 ~7 X) L* W9 x' J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these0 L, K- m% J# |4 {& U; B# x+ U
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! `: a  D$ k5 O) G5 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 F) z- n0 g* v6 j* uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: s6 o. o; {! f8 _ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ k: l4 r  g7 _5 {! R# {2 {, L Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, K+ Y+ ?( x3 W: b% D: H% ^$ s/ W' B) K
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  u, _) x: X$ f8 [; D/ z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; a1 u/ w$ c& I. s& n1 G( Was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 N6 ~, Z$ p. v' z& N3 V
impose liquidation values.  D6 V: j( e8 ~2 r4 v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" e: Q/ O  A& d7 p9 X, B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 R5 D- c. c" h5 h% H/ _& Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; _) Y" A  x# H3 H6 a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ d* Z+ a' F* g' Z6 U) ?# o* i
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A look at credit markets
5 m# C& l* a7 s/ y4 G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: b0 P) M! r, h; R# r/ ^9 xSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.3 q) ^: h. V8 f6 W
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 i! H  M6 |* {4 `- ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ d4 U6 X* L# E% S7 J2 T  F5 g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) m0 q8 ^" r. n/ n6 h/ _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: ], T- E0 t+ i& }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* g1 i/ n0 a$ M- ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ e( K/ Q3 X0 {8 n! j& I2 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. Q' O! l6 j' ]0 v2 E4 d' ~# C  f& ifinding financing.
, n0 K; M9 A2 P3 Q$ l: N* t4 l. v- U5 M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: o7 x1 m8 Q6 P% D5 F. ]. cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- E0 i9 J$ D& r* Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' V0 C6 U1 \$ `4 C1 Y: f0 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: d1 S/ l" z; H* t% j6 A( L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% E# h% v/ r( I5 a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ @4 K0 G- J5 M" ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" t& q! J7 a. M: [; [today.
: O$ x& [5 H5 f- r6 v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 l3 q6 b: v! [  demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 o# X$ ]/ P* o Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ }7 P! @+ G# ?the Greek default.
6 z; ]; C: N5 q9 |8 G* S/ g6 B+ C As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 h# _- y0 @: _" ~4 Y& O! O& T
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; O3 e6 ?" Q% D! q/ n- H' R3 z
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: p" T! O5 ~$ B6 C& b: G& Z) ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; p. V+ W+ g) a9 M2 g; ~5 }3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' p4 e, S1 c5 n+ M8 t8 p0 f; r/ g# J3 y4 ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 f6 a" G0 |! k7 Q0 K! `+ Y
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
3 B2 \+ y0 w& c& `: L1 S4 p# H The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
8 K# ~9 j! ]6 Q5 ibut that was before Italy.
, a6 o, S+ H6 H" P7 ^6 D) U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: U, z) ?5 Q) o# E It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- k# E# e+ F0 ?4 K  e0 b$ O" pItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
# W: ^$ [6 f) Y) _4 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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