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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( W: v5 X2 P. E4 n  q  j
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Market Commentary/ g# k' x1 |3 ^+ A3 [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 N, r& K+ u' ~5 F9 X
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- m2 d& m: n; `! H2 h( M$ Y+ B4 CSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
: |+ L( C) l1 b& ^ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( E7 x, F/ ]" C+ o& R, z6 Y9 ^as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! f! Y! u2 w: o% C
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( i/ T0 b$ v  ^7 |
adjustments.
# h7 C3 i2 ^/ a. k% W$ L* H This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 |5 T3 |# _2 a! }* B/ O/ O) o$ i2 j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; ^4 {. y' ^% y) a) ?9 B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# M8 H  G8 l8 b) Dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners." d$ e+ M6 b8 J6 d0 N7 Y" b- E
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 A/ C1 h) }6 Y1 B
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ p0 e% @" \4 p: _$ [, |/ O
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
, o/ _' V. f( s+ C4 ]  `5 uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, |. `7 R0 `+ k% F2 w: X1 ~0 z1 f Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.1 a! T7 {6 o+ _8 f- ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 P8 b$ R- M% z) M" sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- m5 @9 t! C4 O* h0 a
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
3 w/ ~5 \! s' {! P( n7 Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, c2 a* j- F: C) W" {7 Vimpose liquidation values.
2 h6 E) p9 H4 V# c& `. `. k: H In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' z1 a4 r( P( Q) N& z, N4 i' U$ F% R# H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 c5 F  h! Y7 j6 V0 Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 v' p/ C% _8 H! O( w9 e7 N
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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  @: H" a; R( n( WA look at credit markets
7 O; k5 U2 k$ X8 J" e Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& n- y' o9 d7 z# O& c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 l* g; t3 U% W
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. e/ a: K, Y5 ?# k: S+ Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
7 y" [+ ^; J# ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) V  x$ G9 R& ]% B4 x( v  q8 }4 G" d! @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ |+ Y" [1 s' _
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' i/ d1 B, O8 p9 f' B/ Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 Z2 |2 o$ m- U6 D, Q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 @9 v3 v- P7 b0 q" S) y% tfinding financing.
) n& c  j* G5 q) P) ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  q0 d% w! I. D4 u' i) E$ Ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: c: @4 b: U1 G. `2 N6 y* P0 ?" {
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ _% |2 g9 W; s6 A
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 z! e3 l$ i" `; ~6 y% Q& _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' _) s$ n$ {; ], T
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* \" R( d0 U3 ^1 o* ~5 u; F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ T; Q) z3 m% \: E( s& P8 l
today.3 l8 u3 Q) j1 a& q
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ g4 o# {4 B5 Q2 O" L8 Zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ G) L& J" A+ G- g. o
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for) a% w, V; q+ E2 [9 _/ ~6 v- m4 w
the Greek default.
) S$ ]7 g. E" n* A: r) L: s8 L* X8 S( z As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( ]& L' ?5 d2 S7 \
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) K3 ]. n7 I1 `( J* O& q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 J; H( u7 d% t( Y8 g- [
debt stabilization, needs government approvals., n2 K. M; \5 t0 ~+ G! l) f
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 `9 @/ `+ w" c6 D% q
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( ?! g& u* z2 h* V4 c# i% e4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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( [0 z0 [6 q- \6 z( M* o/ jBeyond Greece
/ I6 p" E; J: C6 X  ], V2 \; l The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ o' ^( c" ?* i6 f% a$ a
but that was before Italy.
3 H" f5 q* L/ V1 G! D" ?( L2 T; p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( H& H/ I" A  t" ?8 {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* }% ]5 N0 T, d0 e9 c3 R* b4 [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% P0 j. L+ N! @
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Conclusion# y; `/ B0 W- C9 ?* m  s# e/ x$ ~
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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