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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
. [" x1 w; H( B6 ~* W
/ }$ d% J3 o2 |* @" RMarket Commentary: N6 d1 _. x% o
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ a* ]4 a3 n% K8 I; ZJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" X3 D+ p6 o( m. o0 y$ v4 USignature Global Advisors
( m. U6 ~3 H. F& q6 `, Y: B! L3 E4 B! j5 p3 W2 Z6 z7 n; [7 h8 Z

! _$ t# l! f3 |Background remarks
& h7 s- y; n& b7 G; r" e/ G Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( U! Q+ \+ Z5 Gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' W  z) ^! x3 p* X$ P( Y# w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 K: o8 Y' g) R- @! r9 A" D  Sadjustments.) {$ J) k+ G' V" [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 c. T5 ~, g9 V4 V" S) z9 k
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  I5 S+ F. y4 T& h
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are( n  C/ F) \6 c, e7 F
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." m2 R6 f/ p9 w0 w, V# v
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) d7 H' n3 }3 K' l6 q! m
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ [( y6 Y- x4 e1 D! x( @ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 y2 Z' s4 T( H. E5 ?
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  O+ y" e! R, A' H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ g, k9 V0 G( ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# j7 C  J9 [2 T1 ]( \: o9 T# V' n5 v
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 I/ R; v- N& N% I. A. C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. Y4 \6 k. h5 Z( y/ a1 W7 U5 E
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 `9 M9 W4 X2 f9 V6 Gimpose liquidation values.
# M! B1 P- B. R# m6 F In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 o8 f5 F! I  A8 U( a6 u1 _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: c! ~1 s6 _7 D* ~$ w0 [. h; C: _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, K" y6 x% v' Y, J4 d2 s5 hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! X2 t$ U+ O+ r
$ R7 q% p  U' Q+ Q5 h* P
A look at credit markets
/ ~$ G% H% e' L) ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 h3 F4 ]/ L* Z( p5 y; uSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# B5 P# W. ~: B# H% [9 v: F
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 E6 r6 `0 O, ^. G9 P) y% V
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ \2 Y+ ?/ p- {% g8 ~1 vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 I8 n% D! u. f5 B2 r
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 ]+ i; [8 {, }6 m. {* F8 g- [) g
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) W+ T" N) n7 s- @* i# _
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( D1 S& j& a5 e
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) Q, B3 L( H+ P$ \- C$ P% t; Afinding financing.* U; k1 L/ ]3 E; G9 a9 }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 @& v" D" b* A( v) X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 X! R0 x+ A5 M7 q# d+ U+ m& ?
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 t: h$ L- O7 m5 `& N9 i3 C' a$ w
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 X  L2 H7 o  i) {4 J2 }1 Sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
% i. y2 B0 F- a* t% s$ w1 Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; T4 y0 ^" ]/ T0 e8 I9 k/ `
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: l) a/ q. _. R3 T- c$ Y" ttoday.
% L# ^5 C* n9 s# U' V Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. G9 `. Q4 A3 R7 H0 Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& m2 s7 |: W" o5 r* ?: N Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 ~0 c" J8 N6 `* d- E9 x. |the Greek default.  P/ q. ?8 z" H2 ]* I. c8 k
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 k3 ~; a5 n* ^4 t+ l
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ E4 p& J+ ^/ r# A* t) ^1 ?
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; q* v% X" Q! odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ B! [; s7 G* s/ Z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 g) {' P) D7 k" E+ \' o% Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 r/ u7 d* z/ ^/ c$ ]
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ |7 |/ U3 \, H" e
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Beyond Greece; g- q6 p# ^1 M3 v" ?6 X  z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 S& b& ~" V- c
but that was before Italy.% q/ e  j# P5 x! R9 A4 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( r6 Q# L+ y7 d; e. C7 N9 H: }
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ ^3 b" m1 R+ F9 i& L. r
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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7 Y, j. T$ o* w1 G, R( GConclusion  C5 u- g" ]8 Y& i& g* ^% m
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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