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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
# P$ E( h$ O& V3 q/ B8 qEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ Z$ \7 m5 W) r4 Z5 |
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 W7 W' z2 P% H, B! x6 K
Signature Global Advisors0 d, h$ j! }' R1 o0 h+ @  U
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' w" h  c* k0 `1 u9 Q( ~( B) I- rBackground remarks
% c" T2 \9 |0 _9 J( C7 n Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; H; r- y' L. R) T% n7 V* a% g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
( J% E1 k- W8 S, _! K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal: y4 n, `/ N0 _* M7 w& N7 d& a
adjustments.
/ F3 ?+ Z1 F9 j- ]# K. m. j) u This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 ^* X6 l, a  V# jsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; F7 a% R7 ~$ y; a+ A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  ^4 ?! W7 q; b" t4 Q7 T- X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ Y" e) H! t! D. n% ?/ m  ^
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 P8 B, m: q( X  E* Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ g" j9 D) W. W: @1 t* S$ ?: g Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 f4 E8 P% G; s$ B+ T* lquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) ^* d% L5 A: S; d; x" V. g( x
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* f; T1 V' l% W) `7 D/ Y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! ?* B# S- F( v& @, L; X1 I7 [1 o
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation$ T: o8 h0 z6 z; D# S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; m8 J5 Q+ I' l% Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. C0 f9 y  ?1 T7 f4 C& `9 E; Pimpose liquidation values./ c, C  a+ ^: V7 k/ Z. C- P
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: l( a6 w, U% u; v2 ]2 k2 i& P4 a! JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; f: {( K" r4 U7 k+ q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" D+ a2 w# Q! d9 |! k6 k+ uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
! J, e/ e+ X9 j5 S0 Y, m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: l( N3 p2 ]" X6 {September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: ^# x" e, S6 w) l/ W/ V* T1 D. Z/ j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) Z5 I0 G# `6 b- E
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* E# M( Z( i. u# @1 q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ [$ e  T  R& S% }- faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 S4 N3 q1 k. w% T) zCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 |& Y) A0 o7 F2 Gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ H* Q* u0 w& I* D. c( U  T- \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 y' o& `( T1 j7 x+ F' _
finding financing.) V; x5 n6 V2 ^4 u5 X$ K2 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 z+ G1 ]5 G4 B: T, {( v* [9 rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" A5 R$ P% i3 _9 n+ B, k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 V9 h" [6 w; b! q4 F3 ]& N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' i/ h* q2 T+ P+ n! x) l. E* pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( v( F8 f: Z; b$ _% G5 ibankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 U6 F! w( `6 w2 z, J) @  B
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 R0 G9 G8 c: K6 h+ q6 @today.
  ^% c/ {0 u: I) k0 R( [9 w! h3 W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ e9 i- Q. b1 H5 P1 w" z8 ?
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda$ r' N* p* g; ?" q- U/ \8 i2 T& z5 _
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 m! B, v; S5 Zthe Greek default./ c& X: s! {1 c8 a% }
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  x" ^$ }0 B- I! K
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, {# Y6 d9 A# k$ ]1 m  O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 I8 ~& B. ]4 d% t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals./ W: D) i; z+ y% x
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% V$ U1 |' ?% h' k1 u' v& L" [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years3 F2 m7 G0 X) c9 U2 h
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 U; e1 r0 k+ G( B5 v6 F- k
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Beyond Greece" L5 E' f( `, t: P7 d
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' B8 P: i3 z# C" I
but that was before Italy.
# w% @, E0 G* @, y9 V7 |# m/ f It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# }6 ^! K0 T( J" b( }
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ R( w1 F: _  R) U; ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 A# N9 B! n+ F: P- N% n! Y

9 s4 h  G8 a! qConclusion' r0 k5 _, q- `# F& ~6 a
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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