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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary) E3 u! x% l  E/ x2 L# A
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 Z4 G% |. N- Z: C, n3 O
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  R1 c; U) Q; c) [Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks0 d" K0 c2 I$ C4 L9 \
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& B& y) }- u; `5 ~
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& i' P/ t) C  \; @& e5 c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 n9 r' o- n# X. N: yadjustments., j0 w0 c- C* x) Q( j+ q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) @9 P5 h' V8 T( }& b% U& zsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& W: s- w2 e$ [- V/ C Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 k  o0 v4 [* L5 l& D
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ W6 w* {4 b% k7 |7 R We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 f3 R! u# ]- q; E4 ]- @2 H. Cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  K  u& H( s8 m. C, q3 T- S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 `/ M3 `( ]8 @+ ~3 N9 a& aquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." A6 }) y  f4 o! A3 ]7 e
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# t, B4 X" a+ |# K+ s. W; ]  r Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 d- \& z" S" L( @/ V. V
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 a# v5 h" c2 R' a# B
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ @1 D' {+ P0 ?2 f  [, j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# v" |9 m  Y$ k& f1 U
impose liquidation values.
2 C' R) K+ T8 l% e9 f; G4 c1 D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 b0 m  q) U! ~% o
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* {0 w: J7 U, D- S8 ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. r' T4 A' i+ a& \- l
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; U- G8 B, @3 R  {# OA look at credit markets% V+ f/ v4 w- h: a& V" _
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% d: d" Z& r6 t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( p  O; `5 s' ?. k# W! H6 \
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& s* l& [: o3 t  E4 I& |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 p+ j# ^# m) C+ g5 }' f9 }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 r( ?" \6 b7 b( Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: V0 ~& Y* O5 J; qCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) t' f0 {! w$ H% v$ ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, e" B5 t$ h' e% k! t5 ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 p6 G+ A1 d6 d$ P% }) K1 {6 {
finding financing.
8 G* D& V4 [0 e: K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 F+ d- F8 [2 \* Gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  M1 l: y2 j- f' Z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" U; g( {2 S& u3 C: n/ Nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' A7 {  a5 J/ @1 f) |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: Z( W* P$ {. Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* h! p9 B+ E/ l- {9 t) o European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% K& C" K3 `! y6 w, W- J+ C: Ntoday.
# w0 S; O; i4 \9 R Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; I! Q7 S! F- `0 p' _) k
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' u  e6 X0 G- o' ?( ~! g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 N2 S4 ]2 z6 h# Sthe Greek default.
1 i% e8 ]+ u1 T, s" Z2 C  o As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 e) u  a" o: p( z  x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. \" v/ U7 H9 k0 y$ v
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign2 R: A, _# c3 h9 b& i  P: b( Q" Q& U
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 _7 W( C; B% E) j7 d3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 K+ B2 {  n/ M' [& J0 Z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 @6 W" N; F; O
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) F0 F% [: R+ r5 w6 z
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Beyond Greece& ]) S9 J: M  w
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! Z% k5 |( `# W; Q6 M. [but that was before Italy.- D1 b5 w) F0 O3 n" P# l
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 `* i$ r: v1 i, G: r  P/ L6 F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- b& n. e; k# \: f+ l4 RItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
  ^  |/ y% O( B2 `1 J& Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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