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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation* Z0 k- \% P3 r$ K
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 k0 ^! \0 H$ eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% v" i r2 U9 Y7 P+ S& Rimpose liquidation values.
5 H( N/ d/ f! k$ |2 Q5 l, l! z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 k- {0 a- s* R' U
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 c' n# e4 O+ ~ r* v. k/ C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ Q, w8 f+ q7 K& x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' V! c# X2 N/ d6 Q
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A look at credit markets
* k3 }/ N7 m" Y3 Z' g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 m- U4 p5 n. e2 V& iSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 V! s! u2 D1 [; H High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 ~6 @& ]: z% m1 d# D Y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% S+ a% z! c6 Z' ~! n! Ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: s. v; o* C4 S; M; U- qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- O& G! ~9 ~, u6 b0 n' ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 X9 b; @3 Z; R- E3 lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% I7 e/ A( ]9 J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, q+ r# K9 A7 y' m0 nfinding financing.% }4 {3 b* E$ [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, Y# A4 J$ X9 N& N" |. p$ a+ gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals. k' V0 K9 {1 E5 I7 W8 ^# c4 z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) p5 A' M+ t9 ^: y) R0 ]9 ?+ v; M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ `1 p; P0 U4 Q O0 C& Q' w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. L+ F0 ?$ }7 V0 s/ W* H- b7 F% Q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 j1 l+ L) ?3 Y; f! R0 E) l# s
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 Q- A8 o* }/ F8 r5 G- z
today.
& n. e, V$ l* T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 m. X" i# F# |1 B6 |emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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