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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation0 \8 D; x! j" r7 O- W& S1 N, j
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' U+ B8 P6 Q8 u8 T' ^) Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 q1 f8 r" V$ @5 |impose liquidation values.* ]0 O. b! z2 k* s7 v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 N6 D1 P: V" j/ a. h# t
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 R+ g( A; C$ A+ e" M
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. L9 |9 }4 C# {6 J7 Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
( P! ]$ J+ r, M, \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 ?. F) j0 N, K# ~3 c; p+ eSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 e) D, W7 H8 f/ A7 |7 y# @
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ Q$ ?( ?7 q3 t3 `# L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! D7 h+ b) e& E9 _, q2 j8 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* h# a% B1 o+ {. i# A Q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 e( _+ y5 U. @3 ]1 d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 ~3 g* P& S8 G, g8 apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% n8 \ D/ Z! P: J2 S @0 p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 a3 m$ G2 e" q% c1 |finding financing.
6 k# n" W4 Q @ x6 v2 Y- v Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 @$ _# J# G- y- D/ I* M
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 |# |" u6 s# f8 S
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# W6 t6 a! D; \/ `) N; A: i, @
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% s& k. H/ v. I* k
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% C7 y( z0 M$ S. P8 [4 D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place. ^/ ^2 b: l) c0 Y j
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 a0 m2 [+ ^% w& H
today.
' D/ J1 ]( L: S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" {! ~$ ?& _+ a
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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