市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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; {/ s( r/ i4 Z) [Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# y. L5 l- }1 r  [+ X: IJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# l  I. E9 S# a/ U% Z* e, BSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ R* u* ^7 p/ t% \as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 c  L1 f+ B4 n( y# O) c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
4 h3 U% Q0 M2 ?1 W1 J This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( h9 {# V& ?9 K, z6 Z- w; x/ flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" y8 F; V- ^6 \  l& G5 A4 ~# t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: W7 }! {7 h& b2 D. w3 Badjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- n3 r% s9 k% n+ n0 I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 B# ~* P' U* P8 \reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ E( @7 x5 H6 C8 G' v8 W7 V8 was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ G6 O: I9 c! D% Timpose liquidation values.
8 S% e, l5 w3 v" x0 x( B: O5 e In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- H3 h* W' ?/ W+ u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, |. f* n) E8 cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 p! L% T0 ?% A4 a; M/ P- C4 }+ g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 ~: p* T- t% }* O, y0 c7 \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 b& A( N/ H- y/ qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
( i/ e4 |, S7 T6 J9 ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- j" Y$ t  p  }4 B4 Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 [0 a6 z: z6 B7 |bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
; ?; n, Z+ f* v& b8 j+ c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" h, c& Z- n: z3 h! d% i1 P1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% X. b, a* {- M+ [" @9 w+ ~) b. W2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! h0 }# B* n/ x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 U) [( ^- }+ C1 Z6 W& p/ a5 pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
6 X' L6 K3 x7 }2 B: [  o The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
) G" k% L  |" T) v0 l It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 q7 K/ _  y6 X+ IItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
5 G" {( x; d5 ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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