埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3742|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ ?4 R4 m- @: p- j- {/ T8 {0 ]8 }

: `+ }% z/ X# z0 f; Z3 t4 P8 c+ ]Market Commentary1 }3 t- Y% P9 ?% f" r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 W9 B* m5 v* ]
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 J9 O- H+ n/ `! I. j; Z6 w5 HSignature Global Advisors# y, X) ?' n& V

) W/ Q# \) r, a5 x2 t: O; H9 s, k+ w  t" b2 y) s
Background remarks
3 R! V4 Q) k! y; U5 b/ U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 q+ d5 j& J' Was much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* Z/ r' E; r) _% n! z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal! d: G' n& c0 q" q8 r: _* t* M
adjustments.8 h: S7 K0 {# ^% M! E, X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) N$ M( d! ?# N' Q' y9 ]! Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 x* ?% B7 ~* {; q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are4 T+ }6 I! q& J( [4 n& ~1 d2 C8 n
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) q+ b& s3 T& a1 `7 a4 C7 ~ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( ~  |/ O% c1 V6 W" m# h" H, l, T
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 U% S  z' E- c. e
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 _+ t( K. F' C% {: A8 h8 ]2 iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 d( Z/ O+ g7 A% k8 |" K
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." P" [  O8 O1 |& B
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 S3 z  w1 Y6 \reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) m! m7 z% M0 @2 D) o4 {; j: {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 ]2 W: h. S" Q( @' Has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 b* T: V7 ~* P2 \( B
impose liquidation values.3 F% E7 H6 m/ ?; j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 t) f5 _, d0 D3 K2 nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- d) n* F: p0 f# c
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 B& b$ `% z0 m5 B% i
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ K' |; F6 O: q, _& U! i" R
6 J% i1 a; ]" M! M* |5 @* S9 p
A look at credit markets
9 A3 z% t/ K5 A0 M) t Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# O% p* ^, h9 ?" wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* ~. A/ t/ T+ z4 T3 b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( x. \# i+ K+ q, D  P! Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ W1 b0 D$ w4 e+ a  Ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 |7 m6 r6 }/ l2 u6 Faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) K, S4 K# z( g% N* M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& O: _8 V; p' ]! Fpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ C- p0 r1 [' L  d: z+ B* t4 q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* Z; i( Y" k& X  `0 d) [finding financing.
+ X# J5 w/ F" o: q! B3 \& t9 m+ D Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 i0 t# i& F4 k; U' U
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. o# o+ V( r, k. L/ q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 N; T9 G7 @6 Z; c3 x
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& M' b: ]+ h) C  j: `; C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 W4 L/ X) z% h: Y. _bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 _* q; O/ e( R! L/ W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* O7 o/ P* J+ V+ ]today./ \  G, A7 t$ H/ u
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: f+ w0 u( O0 l$ t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- f3 u! u$ K/ Z4 N' B Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for( D! x( h: W) j, t
the Greek default.
2 {, y/ |( y6 u5 J# x8 m- G& b% I As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  d; x7 F4 d" v1 x+ F# H
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, ?6 d  x: M" k% ]+ v/ `3 \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' O$ F( z7 U: j7 {6 t% ~debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, M; n+ Q5 x1 U3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ F+ {" ?2 A# Z( {# J0 s, p
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 [# `$ K: Y* a/ x! D* {' c( Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
0 N" k5 B( ^( d0 }8 s4 ^; {" N* }0 @
! e$ I, ~6 D& e' ABeyond Greece) v; _; c. [/ U2 \
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 s! E- z9 W# K8 e
but that was before Italy.
3 a; w5 g. J8 D  K0 B* f* c1 i It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. E% r5 T! _9 Y% r6 N6 P
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 z/ P' A' ]7 [- x& }( B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.2 o' m2 ]: u# `$ ^

0 z: J" R3 w4 e5 d- Y1 P9 R/ SConclusion
+ F. {+ ^! z: `/ G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-26 07:44 , Processed in 0.112850 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表