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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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' R/ w2 E, j& E3 A0 |Market Commentary
( o5 v  H  w% H5 H1 p- e) C( YEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ s3 g4 `. C2 D+ w/ _4 ^James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ C2 B6 J0 {5 j5 i' k% [  \1 i
Signature Global Advisors
: {1 G$ C1 L$ e4 l  R
2 m: |3 v; {$ x- H6 \7 `5 r+ L2 ?% a7 f7 @2 [, x) D
Background remarks8 b' U( m. S- u) r1 A: y' z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' f$ A' }3 I2 o4 o- H5 Qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 Z6 U( J' J$ X0 \2 L' i) j
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal! N* T- x& N. l# i
adjustments.
) n% H+ O. P) \: ^9 v This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) f( _- |& ~: }safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, `0 P& [; K* o: H Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! ~6 @* b; ~$ W( xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, w. g1 w- s, R, P0 V We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 {, ]; \; f6 s; I
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
2 J, V1 n( P3 A" ?% | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; R: }, d7 r- n
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& {/ u0 D4 S, Y; t Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& H" T- R4 z% u/ u
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! T; {; ~2 _3 I$ {, n  C
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( ?2 w/ ]$ x8 \- l1 l
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. {9 S5 T: P- Z/ X5 j) ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ o, R) F6 R  s6 l
impose liquidation values.! Y; k* ~4 h- [8 m$ V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 D, I  }/ X+ j& ~7 r4 Q: NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. Q7 G3 o2 X5 ^/ `; `, q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! m2 t  a+ x% n9 N: T. @% Bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 }# U! }& h; P/ X$ f
% M6 b9 d; H# m  P
A look at credit markets
- o/ ^7 F* {. ?/ X4 E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, L! }& J7 _; `  t; I9 A  J$ OSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ }( z- B$ w$ K  t3 ~: O2 L# ?2 ?0 x
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( W( N( F" P$ a6 l' Q$ X6 n' n
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 G3 \  n: f$ }! A6 L* ?billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ L9 q) \/ Y& N
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 P7 u) V; D( R) ?! K# C0 VCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 g# M4 f) ^4 m4 Q- B) N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% [9 O  x: ^( X* |' [" _' D2 l7 @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 d, @  [; G, n5 u8 S2 ~# \0 O
finding financing./ G$ J$ z" X( t5 A8 Z1 W: Q& p
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ ^3 N2 {% u+ k& r
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( Y- t" Q& `. P' |% ~" a1 u
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ k7 A# a9 }1 k9 Bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. ?! j5 a( j4 P3 ~6 Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, L+ t, Q1 P! w  S5 k5 [, jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 e: M! i: A) j, Y3 V* w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 }4 j5 q4 O* x1 s: ntoday., F- x: O! i6 F+ p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 r2 }) t9 \3 j: D
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! L: D% T9 A7 @( u- _
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# M1 O& ]6 ~: R8 h: R. q. athe Greek default.
) }6 ]) |( T" k5 |& {1 z& Q; Q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& s/ ~5 q, ?/ J3 C: E  \1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( ^* j5 H8 j0 K+ v5 g6 A5 a) g2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ p% x3 I% x1 T9 u/ H6 x. P
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( A! S/ _/ x- o/ |0 r3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) G' F- h/ }: X+ X
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' i8 O6 O+ A: Z& r: T4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( V4 Y! g9 ]- N+ y6 a: ^

. O0 C3 Z/ E5 `* j5 K1 pBeyond Greece
6 N! ?% \/ P, H1 ^! D; c. L$ N The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, I! Z. W, H- ^; B$ }3 V1 zbut that was before Italy.- k/ D, [% E4 z1 Y+ T9 W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* d& ?( T7 L& [6 `
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 G( s: R" Y3 r4 A, b' B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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& T6 {) u. a9 @% M& P0 LConclusion
/ D1 b. X, r$ O+ z# l We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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