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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
6 D. n) t  f. h% a5 Q7 x" n- uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% u2 j# M9 T& e1 W' H8 Q4 f( t( a
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ q' }) q, p2 y, m# PSignature Global Advisors
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% g% u8 e' o: c1 y
2 m0 s& V' p$ ?  YBackground remarks3 g% ~# |8 A, l8 }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# _: J" s8 q4 K4 ~as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 {" w$ k% }6 f3 x* W" | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 f9 P3 v1 d. ], q: kadjustments.
8 B) o8 ^3 [6 v2 v$ O" R+ B This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social1 m5 K9 l+ Y$ s! L$ C$ X
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 ?* w1 Q( c! p4 |: G4 x Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ D+ h. K) Y: D) xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( b" g0 d! c  P* e" B9 B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; P+ J$ v& J# ?( q' U" n& {* ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 m; c+ f; w- U0 A( ?! ?. _3 `
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ X8 A0 h; a0 H0 V: e9 [
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
/ |, e0 h* p( c Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& z0 X1 T  Q9 \' b2 |
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 C. i+ [# s) q8 L7 E) C( Dreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: |$ \+ I4 n. E+ i The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- p+ D: `0 a4 s- _" j0 A& yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( w& U* Y2 }2 |2 r: ]impose liquidation values./ ?2 }2 O/ t( z/ t- s' i
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, M7 l% q) K1 t3 O9 g4 O( F
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% h4 ^$ X# W! i- u9 A The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 q* |- c! ^- G7 `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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# e: u3 ^; n( K5 h1 CA look at credit markets
% p2 w. k0 q$ z5 c Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 g" J' H+ e* v- Y2 \8 ^: {7 c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 v4 _6 E$ n7 |" h3 [ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! I/ K; [7 k! r' y- W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" o5 `  G; z( M. H7 J4 r% \* ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, O9 Z" ^% C2 r9 ?2 o7 @
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' F( E/ c6 m/ U6 j6 FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 S1 g" e& H8 O/ |  T0 Y) Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! b% a" a; r) s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 Y2 B. I5 i6 J: e. H
finding financing.. _% k) y6 U& J/ @1 x6 ~' [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, ], Z6 h7 [/ l; ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# y0 s4 W4 {4 t2 {* k6 ~( _' \5 g Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 b2 E  M7 p$ @: O$ D8 l
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* @) p3 W) |( r/ l$ j5 Vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ F% d# A! d% `4 o  }bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 D' Z3 Z: r- }) U6 y( f
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( A; ~4 Y2 P! b! \1 w( Q+ h6 V+ n
today.4 L# W3 p$ E- f5 @( p/ b9 Z* x
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: _  v' @/ Z$ n7 i" d$ ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda# q0 i. Y0 [3 r. ^6 l; g5 _
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 B; K: d0 j% e1 J$ M" [2 P$ ?the Greek default.8 i/ C  K- y( b; i# L
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  Y& u6 z4 h; S# X
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- E8 E5 }) {3 B; P, S6 o5 K% X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign" @: i5 G% ~( n, z. C& b, r( N  s
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.# U7 p/ ]# X2 D- @6 ^% I
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& q5 f. w% h/ r/ gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% J& T% V: p0 t" U" W* x$ ]2 o
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
4 h5 l% z! ?) \- H* _2 L5 c% l The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, f% s& G/ \: d* j0 vbut that was before Italy.0 v  t2 s& U4 ~  }3 V9 a
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! E6 H# c2 k0 U2 ?2 \# t2 p6 d) n
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! S* b6 s/ w! x% YItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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: [+ V( v+ I& p, P0 Z  {Conclusion
1 `- ?" h: {5 u" A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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