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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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& B4 v! _8 q( d% }7 p) _Market Commentary3 q6 G* a' r3 W* q/ T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 q! H; t+ ~. W7 Z! u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 m; w% ^; ]: l- w! W! ESignature Global Advisors
, M  m$ r) v; C8 n. l9 C& W/ g" t; [1 V3 l

; s6 s( ]: V- f" _* {1 e" TBackground remarks
  L! _0 f+ e- h7 ^, M( j  Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 ?# l& h+ v4 m) h7 K
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 u" Z9 D4 `& z0 \" j" `' ?2 h0 Q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 C# G) D0 Y% z# _9 E: eadjustments.% k% c) v, o3 J* I8 l
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ n5 ?/ Y0 j) fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* ]" c8 k% t8 [$ P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& [) I5 D- s+ \$ r0 k& Tlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" i( C: F2 [+ B9 l* D7 B, B! K1 ~( S We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 `  e! R" _0 n8 g8 w' X
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! Z+ X# i) i% L9 G Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s- e% r5 W- R% N  J7 F8 l* V
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. i' ]4 r" d" g0 @ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# w/ C. l3 ~0 _. B. y6 C+ P2 F
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 A8 F/ `7 a7 r; X" ^+ V4 f& |1 Q! P& Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 C& [+ m4 X. L5 t$ @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& f3 p5 I3 A. S9 I6 e4 ^. O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ g/ j: _) B: h- c; r# \impose liquidation values.6 [8 R% L5 `! i( E# D' |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' T4 `  }, H: v. eAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' u; I" K; x9 ^4 |% z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 Q/ _! ?9 E, Z$ f" ^' y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 l' J$ y7 ?7 Q. l5 E
9 h) [/ }% X+ ?6 c1 W+ T* z
A look at credit markets- K0 v8 U/ H" i1 R% ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- O* R* g4 v5 k: Y1 ^" ?
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 ^5 l* G: L+ H# v2 C- j3 `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& {7 Q: U- V% Z; O& \( t
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. B! |' P. z  Y0 n2 d' M, t- |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& Z+ d1 \7 t" C( X( I# ?1 d6 D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 s" s8 [$ L, r4 B3 W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 m' s6 W: z, }5 R2 n
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  C. ?* f9 t+ Q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
9 P3 o0 ~8 Z5 _6 b4 {* h8 q$ h1 M& wfinding financing.
. {" M0 B0 u4 K. \3 @% x4 K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( Q# G, H3 n6 E& A! Twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  }; J! E% X8 b! V5 f( y- y( G
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( \& P: p* a6 {3 {- ~is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ _9 o4 j/ c: Q' U. x8 Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 g  g/ P$ Y+ Q  qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 ?6 v5 y) D& ?4 r European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ c3 L3 G% A( v+ n- f  t# W
today.
! n$ n2 K9 ]' m) C6 u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 {7 i- w- K% ]* l) N) |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 Y) g3 U5 _3 M8 M% ^1 [: p
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ T% k9 b4 P& ]& D- F' P
the Greek default.+ I0 G5 j8 |9 ?+ E% M; A% u0 ~
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 \1 b% ^' ]' }( }8 l% F1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ X( P- Z; t* R  ]6 ~. e# O' ]0 v
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) ]8 u4 R7 @. G9 }6 a3 Q5 K2 _$ Bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! |) e+ s  l# e: M( g& q3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing* c; [* {& Q1 ~: N7 u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ w# a: a0 ?  K
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 E& u$ X, f- G: w. L" c' Y
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Beyond Greece
$ V; ]( n( p5 c' t The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% k2 ?% V$ E6 l' C  Y- Vbut that was before Italy., i$ j+ s' W; A" l0 C' M% T$ R" ^
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 L* f" C# z* e1 T, I7 n; N% L It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
0 l9 Z3 k8 U9 _1 mItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion! s; {2 C7 b+ h& L1 x3 ~$ _8 r
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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