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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  `  r, \4 B$ I) E8 i

" v$ c9 l/ \; |4 _$ l( o* BMarket Commentary
7 O0 ^8 v3 s. _9 M, ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, ^! z& ~# p" c6 L' GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 `( I% ]: e/ ^8 t
Signature Global Advisors& i$ M" n+ K: b/ l# y2 U' `
" S( O, k* r% {5 f( X' v  W8 ~

0 j. H( i; J6 S2 _% C) v0 M8 aBackground remarks% ~5 h4 T+ G, {  \! X2 a9 m7 G
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, f7 I9 N& _9 ~& b3 v/ K  V% las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ ]- [) C0 }, P4 x; @+ N Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& ?+ h  n" p- R# g, u; R
adjustments.- B! L1 j# k5 Y! p
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ g1 m. M1 ^$ u! @  [
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ d% D8 S; {6 n6 |% q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 v7 U3 d: w- @' d! D/ L/ Y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' s5 Y  }4 c4 J) ], `' e- R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these0 j: U. \  E* p4 R
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 `; Y# p9 e5 b" X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 k6 F; y+ v; j; \% |quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  Y6 u# U6 X; R9 u' i Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% i; K  }5 A7 z* f) G$ C7 ^0 v% M
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 K: h' R& n2 C$ }" [, Qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: Q  c: ?: X, w- a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- f' i. l9 B. _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 X# W. V+ \! N$ S7 ?  j% @: E
impose liquidation values.
! D( \/ i5 V; x" J( ]- O In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ }) k- j( `2 Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 O7 p% a$ |9 E The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; ]) z) X, Z0 Q' r/ q6 F
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* w2 ~: o+ P/ v! H2 G% i" W+ Z, _0 D

, l8 R$ m, ]( g& ]  m% j' M+ @4 H/ xA look at credit markets- H+ r% l6 n. c2 `" `% Y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: [0 e4 D) n: @7 J
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* ]8 b, b- V4 v- }7 ]8 h3 \
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 K1 E' r  O/ U: M& K7 C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% D- X3 ], ?" N( |3 ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, E+ R+ K% G) V% ?7 t$ q: w. E
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! e0 Q1 d; U6 C3 A7 G8 r% b+ u3 w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ M5 u2 Z; c% c9 E
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ ]8 y' W& S& y$ d, q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 h4 a0 V! j- [& {+ afinding financing.
4 [4 h/ t; V" O* p/ E Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* i0 |. x, ]3 H* kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, d# \8 @' n  E2 {* S" [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& i/ v1 E; L& v! J3 ]( kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; T( u$ H0 X4 s! x8 _3 a% q7 W
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 |2 r/ t9 ]+ [" f/ ]4 p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 M: I+ i5 N" q+ Q# U
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* J( @8 v" y' Q. j( P9 r" ctoday.: x# _7 T( M& q8 {- d; N# o9 W
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 D3 v/ r& R# ~0 ^1 O# @
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 `7 h) b0 R7 v
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' L8 p) `. S' F: _the Greek default.2 s. w: n" X3 a$ T& A1 S$ V) C
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 I: ?! w" X- \( T* Y5 r- o
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 Q3 @. H1 W  o5 I, n7 i
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& j. w8 C2 q5 \- u! wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 t2 P8 H" v' n1 `* ~1 s
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% ?! y/ ^0 ?  Y' T( jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 |/ p1 X( h0 X0 }
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
: H, }* o0 s! A; d% S( p: c7 e$ ^1 o  K3 |9 f* ^
Beyond Greece% a4 z/ z( e. Q& i  X
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 W! ]: ]/ w7 p  [1 _- ?
but that was before Italy.
. Y+ `- h. J  C( K. G# G It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 j0 c7 `* a6 B5 u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: Y8 v( h- d2 i' u- ^Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
& [& P/ n# @  f, N
# x' M, d* R0 o) sConclusion
1 \: t5 A, d  J7 M; L/ r8 } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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