埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3292|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( W% u1 m/ [  v4 }
% h. y8 d9 J! a6 R) w5 F9 U
Market Commentary9 i) q  C& N* ~! b7 ]
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! V0 E' ?  m5 F4 F& u. V' t/ v( `
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 l( O. r$ a( r4 Y
Signature Global Advisors
% y' c! z1 S& i* Y( Q/ j
: _- Y0 Z4 P$ }6 |' ~. ]
. Y, s  y5 g  D3 Q9 bBackground remarks# G0 m/ J% z- {6 ]3 r7 H0 v% n
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ [# }3 |8 H- J2 Was much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ O, _" P% d8 P Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) o  c3 \) X4 r9 h4 X( l+ a9 I" v; ~
adjustments.9 y9 s% O, I) q$ v  \- t. S
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social# U; D9 O/ t3 T5 D  O5 ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" v2 l/ p/ z2 D& ~3 x, K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 l2 ?; k# B: i$ n6 v
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- X3 M/ y, q: ~- T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  r' O8 m1 \4 p4 a- Q& ]
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  y" r7 B+ t* I Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% `' M8 ?/ l3 P) o. d
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." N' \3 u1 z: A( z+ Q% @* I4 e
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ W5 S/ K+ R6 l+ j2 R$ T Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 O! Z) l( L1 Xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 T$ f- [( ^. e( L1 p% a2 S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 N" y$ s& _# A9 _+ F/ Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ Y# T: o6 ^. x1 rimpose liquidation values.
' z2 l- p$ o& b7 ?5 C- F In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) o: `9 _5 f8 a1 D3 `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 H3 ~/ x1 U# F2 u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 ^1 ]* @( |! ^, iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- W! V3 d. E" [6 F
  o/ o( t* z$ z
A look at credit markets
* c/ q2 Z/ T# k: v, B Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; Z; O9 O. N# B0 F; n$ JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., ^4 Y; J  D9 T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( I9 z1 \/ [; l; z  D- kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 a, t- C' F% l- }+ G
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 h5 x" F& t; U+ k- L" z7 x/ eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ o4 D# z7 H8 n& R9 [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: m# j: D/ d' p: ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! ?3 N/ C9 I& k% | Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 N: x; m' I# z# R6 c
finding financing.
  R" m7 e2 ?1 ^ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# a6 q* g1 M; B1 q1 P
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 t) p4 ^9 w, i  l! f; _
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ l) ^  ?+ ~: W  C/ c
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( D: }6 [( ]$ W
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" v8 k4 {8 K8 X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 Y" `1 j+ Y( H, o1 ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% }  z4 v% p' c
today." K$ G  N0 F* r% U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# f" N5 b* v* `2 V$ o$ ]8 Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  j8 h. n; T6 }" E5 {4 I
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  }8 \* i3 ?& @, @/ t" e. [
the Greek default.' t3 k8 |0 y8 E" X5 H2 C8 }$ P
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- t; d3 q, ~0 h/ d8 X! y  t, }1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! D: i" M) r! z- ]- o* g
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 ^4 U5 @3 Q& V) |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. w9 l% b- G7 i. K- L3 T3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! I* A2 i1 u: q6 [& B
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' @; \: ^" Z; t# h1 b( W1 X' o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* H* j+ m: Q1 W: j1 K
; t  a# F& J8 @
Beyond Greece% c# p" N* a9 ~+ h+ R5 [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),( E) ]- @- {8 F6 T* Y
but that was before Italy.* H( L4 s5 [% Y' f+ n* c: n0 {6 l6 s
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 F6 |5 e6 z$ K$ E5 Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: Q; C9 |' a% J6 Z- j: C! H: QItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
6 K2 F  A  l* w2 r% F+ L& v9 f2 w% }  y
Conclusion: w9 r' A7 B8 E. i
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-18 15:38 , Processed in 0.070995 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表