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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation+ B3 _; f) f2 Z6 ~. X, k6 E
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 m# U4 Z2 _8 J2 h: ?& @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
W& F1 O; O& c2 {/ L0 e+ H& Z* Eimpose liquidation values.6 I3 S/ @$ O8 d- S2 @
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, h* S) I1 `* f1 x3 U' |
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 Z7 V/ k3 U( ]/ i; @ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" K2 @& d: e- h- Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 g2 x6 q' m4 G2 O* n
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A look at credit markets
r/ z5 K; c |: I5 c; H) J( r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# @7 \$ K+ i% T$ P: n9 hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& E+ X1 \/ k3 K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. s. n. a6 V8 m8 H
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 K/ P8 A( V. F, s$ O3 r2 I% X
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 Q% H4 e, q6 M" u# E1 e$ @4 O& [access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ l; S2 X! @. h0 pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ I7 E0 G1 Z8 h) z, C4 Fpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# ?! z$ p! _; I. ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( }2 q/ |7 h) Q0 z' [4 gfinding financing.& b8 p# H$ g; E3 z" z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 h1 L, E7 o9 z8 _5 n. cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ U' z6 v; _, H* _( d* S* p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& y* ~& e( |+ e @5 z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 J! p) Q1 x. |/ ^ c! y- i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 P5 i$ _; t, a7 a k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 S r! R, s t7 g: [0 [" P
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- D% m- ^& D$ x# B
today.; }; l" n' r) } R4 h
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 \3 _ c7 f, l$ _
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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