市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
# c: I" r+ Z1 i' F3 S; ~5 nEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# H' H) S3 P4 A8 d5 kJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ t" ]) M, R. D' R3 jSignature Global Advisors
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& \4 x& I- Z4 h  D; }
: {% J: L. l! v8 I$ N. s+ X$ D, }$ tBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  q) C* _& k- y, a6 c5 {2 E Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. M. u* p# E! N. b! h7 g0 a4 a: \$ tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" f  p: r* ^) `lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% F1 @# e0 O7 b  \  }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
, }! E$ a+ ?3 F% hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, P- K7 `1 t1 _2 Q+ G Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 e* B0 [4 R  ~3 qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
! _8 t/ R) n5 C+ |% W% O The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ \1 W& U' Z) w  {3 ?# o) q6 n# Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% ]  i0 B) d/ IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 x4 I* V% b& V# _) E The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" s' Q! K7 M& E! ]$ s/ oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 [  @% L  T0 M% JA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% e1 v; \' [6 s4 o$ i High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, Q/ A; w% [' V+ F$ C- rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: N! ^, o! T% B1 u* Qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. q$ K  X" Q8 c1 z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
* Z8 U# j) T7 \/ h& P( m  P Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( j' b) C) H+ W) g5 [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 t4 e: [' g: m8 hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" X0 K. k0 Z" a, C: ~6 O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  F1 a2 M0 t5 J& @today.
, t$ @' Y& i6 V# p Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" v7 C, k, D. S. F: B- Ethe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 C) ]2 m9 k6 Y! m7 t" {' N% C: A' Vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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+ s- H0 V2 `; R9 iBeyond Greece
) N+ a9 I. r% b8 X The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
: v' x* o* h  g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( ]7 J* N3 n. ]2 x& Z- l( j, C It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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