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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary- [+ N0 `" Z5 v4 p! J6 f6 s0 y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. Y6 N, l) M* O) l8 ]1 HJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  f$ u( B/ ^6 V3 I7 Q2 s$ X
Signature Global Advisors
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, T$ a6 z/ v% P4 D1 ?Background remarks
9 X3 c! _0 l9 v Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  F% N& ^5 x. F/ Y8 v% z
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 A0 @& g  C. i& I" N/ |0 X Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ d+ y6 c( G. C& C5 H6 cadjustments.0 P9 @( F4 Z: j
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% E+ t' F% _' T/ U; Y% Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. s2 Y+ X& E3 A5 F$ u$ s* C7 s* J' D
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 r) k6 m4 l0 A: Q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ _; }$ @% Y& v4 I
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
! X& K* J4 H7 ^( Q* V2 qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ q1 M. h9 f$ n4 \3 U
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; A& e$ z7 }$ `7 q- Y( T# l4 v
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 [# s/ a! q% }, k
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; x$ c: J( z5 d+ B5 H) C( z4 d Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- I5 R4 P, f2 x+ O8 Z  W" Z" K. F- Yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! Q2 \6 \" C7 Z% O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# ]# i8 i# K) ~5 o) g& Qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  U9 `6 |7 F3 I) Q6 Q& Uimpose liquidation values.: f6 f8 B7 |; o  L9 a8 D3 {$ y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: M( k' U' y" a- C' J* Z# K8 h6 CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( G# D/ X5 N6 g6 r3 G: V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! ?! F/ B9 y  C+ V, q0 `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) x+ F, N) {( k% a5 c3 {
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A look at credit markets
3 ^. ~2 F# `1 O Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 [9 x$ u$ y9 }  ]& rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 S4 R) n' N6 o# i  g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; o6 m! t  W' [$ j5 t8 ?- L- Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: E- @" T6 [/ g7 _7 ]billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 J& N) L0 p  Q' x- |8 X4 y
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, u  c; u0 C& K& V; `
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! u! M2 P8 f5 m! X* A( ^5 o' upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* R/ ], a- ]3 i' z9 P9 E& f
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; P9 t: b9 ?4 \* L2 Kfinding financing.- f  f: N- C" r6 Q: x. a7 }5 \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
- |6 {! g1 r" m* a# ?; H( zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: }  ^5 I  a2 q1 M2 H% k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ d  W" C- V5 B9 C1 Z9 [
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 H/ J( ?6 `9 E9 R
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 v% n/ q, A" v5 u+ v  c+ b
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! q5 f3 Q8 k' s  c. m- m European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 {3 Y  g6 c, \) I9 U  |
today.
4 r. E2 g1 z& ?9 A" u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 U  b9 M. c4 m: b0 qemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" J4 r$ P8 _8 J2 \+ h Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
- D& W) i4 e" L  ]" E! u" I; W! g" {the Greek default.  l+ p) E( L6 f
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ L, q  P4 J; H2 S' l) f/ x% A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 Q* ^/ ^2 d/ k. R: a4 L( ?2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, K$ {% T) }; w: o
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. r! w! X/ i! C9 }+ ?6 o- k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! Z- e* U3 ^6 V7 j* i1 L9 ]" z2 ?7 u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
! ^& c, c. N! S* ]5 r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., |* P3 `. ~7 ~2 I2 G7 W
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Beyond Greece! ^8 L' l+ A4 T  T
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' ^$ W- g5 Z4 o( w( f" p9 _
but that was before Italy.
; d! M, w4 [* v4 v; V# Y6 P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
3 R6 o0 c* N+ i5 F$ Q/ [ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 t) Q3 K2 D4 k% v& j
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% T+ U1 T2 `  s+ T  l- x& G+ w
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Conclusion- p% |( z+ ^( D; j+ Y
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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