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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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# g4 X  d5 w  K7 A1 O8 {% j% ^: ZMarket Commentary( K5 K1 i6 W$ U! ~- t/ {3 n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 G& S, i2 ^" A, J3 RJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% T. v. `* [' D0 K0 A) K! n
Signature Global Advisors* k2 E  T2 m' L4 x& P" k, }, C
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Background remarks
8 X0 ^* c7 u4 M7 @ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* `9 m) k8 |4 M( Sas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! S8 \, W' O" J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
1 `, D7 V- e2 C% d2 V/ w0 aadjustments.2 e7 Q) ?6 E- k2 B- a4 _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 ~3 T3 y2 H& F: [. T
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; ?) [  w- G( [; n* ? Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 w( O! k. b" Y! _- Q; alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  T2 u5 x) X$ s, M
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# V! }, T$ {" R7 |4 h% V$ L; E
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% p# B3 ~8 \) g. j  I& m  F# ?9 @
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
9 e9 P% F2 c8 K# wquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 E- D" Q+ _' D) f% B& s+ S  q
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 C- S1 R. J8 v* ~5 G. J9 ^  ] Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
* N$ c2 k2 I# h# Q# c0 }5 D7 jreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 Q+ L: w9 m: O& [% h. e0 R1 c" R
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ a7 l( n4 m4 y; v! h8 b( was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( z: D  [" w1 g& I4 `0 z" }
impose liquidation values.9 D: N" ?/ a- I2 |2 j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ l) Q/ E% U- U" f
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) F+ [9 w# g! q/ p: }6 z1 W; e  J$ W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- w, h' [4 h$ s/ {
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! o: m: E' ?+ I8 g  C

" L5 P  c2 D+ Q; f% H4 z  OA look at credit markets
( Z9 J' g. X. j; f# j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 o7 W/ C; S6 Q: b' Y. V5 J+ _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 h/ Y* e) I& d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 `: y# O0 a* W* G5 i$ [, fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 P, T) C; W& k( q" g4 Qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) y+ a; m6 g% z2 V. n" I* P+ R- iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! C! q7 |* r- @5 X6 t. T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 L: W$ V# Y( A( V
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( y6 H- H4 t2 L* D
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) i4 i/ f( h" hfinding financing.
3 o7 W4 D1 v8 H* M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 ~( g8 o, b* S8 r
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 U1 L) n6 |) B, A  C Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& u# A- N: _9 I4 Y) S0 B/ n( s! a  r% `is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( o0 J: t. c, \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 H& h: [4 @' }# Z9 W: m& G
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 t4 Y2 Z, n. A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 i- ^6 b. X/ l4 J. R4 A
today.. X1 ]  S; }4 D: T/ D2 d
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. v3 K# ~, s- n; N2 |% `: Demerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 p4 c# p6 O5 l% \* O! M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, x8 ~) Y$ h% ?% k# r0 Z6 ?the Greek default.  B& I1 d, c$ ?" t  d9 y- X
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& n0 D/ D1 _. k8 Y. r
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  K$ e: |% L, }7 Y+ \( h$ N2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 T+ m, S8 e0 w  C1 s3 x
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# P/ ^0 r  L* C" H" o6 b4 S8 N, m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 D: y* w/ o# |- W
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* @" S* M% @" T4 r  ?4 j5 O, B" @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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  _, Q! R; R& D2 ]" m( j- T7 ABeyond Greece# ]9 z% @2 F8 l8 f/ }% ~; [, b
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" v8 ~/ s. a6 b9 u! |; I( h* A: xbut that was before Italy.: V* m( X; b% h. M$ i
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ Y& |' u  ^+ h0 ^" e, h# l( p9 K
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 |8 b  p+ x5 eItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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