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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 G6 p, l- c# \+ k2 n+ |
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ Q; X% W; a1 ?) U1 k" ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 ~& T- O1 `6 E# B+ B3 V" H6 x& _
impose liquidation values.
: p) T- p* G4 l7 j In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. S1 W, O( y6 l! u* xAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ |; |( @ T9 R4 u( |4 F' k The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ {7 ^5 h& v6 G. T( H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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g7 x. p, s7 d) Q9 I3 B8 F. H# a, HA look at credit markets
* F# W7 \! `, i5 v' g7 S9 H Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 R% d4 ^/ V4 uSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. J" \6 `' c; b# B! m1 u c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 |( T) [: P- Vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* [: g6 z9 k* b6 g+ V) t
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 o" I+ m' y; K9 w6 ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- d- r1 S: W" I, n6 A; [: c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) `0 E! ~2 o* f6 U6 npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" C/ B! ?, p: p3 c: ] Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( v' y7 {6 e G* x) R, S' ^finding financing.5 Y% G' F+ }6 @
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. x& M5 P2 H" y4 p( w2 z* k% J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# X1 P7 D4 f* a5 H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ I8 f4 F, u- m6 Y3 Z8 cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ K$ ~' D! y3 \& s$ {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
% o8 q8 n0 }3 [1 e* rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 f7 ]' E/ {+ X3 I, Q4 J7 R European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ h% | R2 j0 d0 v% U
today.4 a5 @8 W( k* |5 q8 T Z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 Z4 u8 t3 { b9 j( \' X Yemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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