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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation6 ?8 |6 z6 q( \3 N1 `
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' [9 G. L0 t) [7 s: C5 u, J- Tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! |3 |3 P( \! ^- C- w' }4 _
impose liquidation values.
! Q, [& I( ^- J; ~: {+ M In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
d+ U) L: s6 j9 Y" ~August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; S6 [ x' C) V3 \( x. b, i
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& [( o ^# @; b: {scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# s# f, O% D* P$ Z% K
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A look at credit markets. b9 q b9 z# N) c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: E: ?6 `% J8 g; {September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- ?$ h8 N9 U4 C3 q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) i i+ Y1 t$ N% T& P5 Jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 A9 W' n1 u& J* Jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; N/ _9 u7 G, O" K4 {7 \+ O
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% t8 p! v) B+ i+ ]& q$ S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 `4 S1 \4 H) m) G0 p. S9 i) I5 e# b
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. ?( W: F( @$ y9 |$ T$ P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 j+ h, j" q7 S! u1 _finding financing.) |# m3 {6 ^! X+ A# i5 z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% z3 H1 K3 b) _$ v1 y5 I9 dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ t8 c# K$ O% K8 s0 ~ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 b# I% m! i( V9 W I: A8 ]is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# R/ y& y2 N5 o' H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 t( O5 p* x! @; v& nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. n( s5 ~. g* x5 C5 ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- r, m& A4 {; I9 S/ f! l! h) }3 ~
today.6 T( V7 {$ d) T; g( X, T2 v( ~
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: B& J; D! B# c! d0 x* Lemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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