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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' U5 x. r5 k3 L- B
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Market Commentary
& E, P9 C# Q1 s9 a$ pEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 P$ F: d4 i  w
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: U- z( I5 t4 a& o" @Signature Global Advisors* `8 D1 F. v/ \
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# E0 U; r' [7 X2 m) ^3 r
Background remarks
3 [, i# Z; A) G6 G3 h" F Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 K) X2 ^9 U* ~- A* A5 X+ {- Q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 Z# x% T! n0 |1 I/ c7 P  Z5 h0 m
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) C# ]- Y" f2 H- {+ X  {adjustments.
5 x. m& D$ t2 z3 ^- g) C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. V2 l8 B: Y8 t8 K7 _
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ v* z7 t/ P5 x5 a Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 N* `% K# V& j4 H
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( O4 ^) i* ]9 f We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 `6 a% o& J5 U3 C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 p6 I- ~% A5 @
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 u: ~6 g5 j+ P
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 P) A0 @3 ^, h& B: `7 ~$ }
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% r5 [- l; ]- l; Q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, c  c; u- n, u* e& L4 Kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 G9 D7 ^5 M! l3 ?- m" t4 r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 c* h: P8 I4 O. d
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* O/ w# O3 c: d% A, N" p. f
impose liquidation values.- s6 J0 Q0 ]7 z0 Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 R  A- n2 z, j; X; n" {$ B! }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 L4 D" t( _+ ` The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 ^: N4 B7 V) ~; C$ o
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 M4 w  ~/ i% E' ]! {3 o2 K, l
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A look at credit markets
0 `; c$ Q$ o4 p2 y2 R  R0 X Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ f9 ^# B0 r3 P4 m8 L6 }' f
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. a3 p7 C/ x5 F
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ O! c- `; L$ G) S( t0 W- W7 q- `then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, p) n- a4 `! m9 T
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 Z- W8 R/ ~7 b" y
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 r' q& b% i8 O2 ^# f8 e0 W6 R( w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 J! f2 ]  R% F- r" I0 f/ @+ M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. I* B7 [% j/ d: R. l1 o Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 @. T9 B0 L* t. ]
finding financing.* s$ d& O; Q6 f0 |! `/ r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 b% f! I/ Y# k0 t6 m+ \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: F* c& E) u: U7 n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ d* e4 {/ n" I  V! ~is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" u: g* i$ ?1 k6 o+ T8 \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  U" L0 f+ r1 pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( L  r+ p' v' q' {
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 a: D$ L6 U9 H/ D/ b- d
today.0 C, E0 N6 N, C8 c- z. [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ }! t) X" l. H8 F. G6 y: @emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  D/ u  ^8 V# }4 [/ G
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: C; w0 v# T+ _3 m+ @, l( q
the Greek default.. C7 R% m7 O, U) I/ d( _. Z
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, S4 u- B6 E. C5 H1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; u3 P! v$ O# ?  S+ ?' x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 ?$ q& e% \+ U! vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 W8 Y4 X& {1 y8 ]* ?  K3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; m# P9 b# p2 o4 j/ B( ]$ ]banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' O, F3 w- S9 ], P# U4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 T: m  D# q2 F4 \& c6 P7 {

3 x( C/ j" {  e! G' GBeyond Greece. v; O: U) C. ~, `4 t' q) p% q8 {
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ x; W9 }7 z, B* `" W% [% y; m' \+ kbut that was before Italy.$ M5 I( T6 G! _" ^! v: }
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: m' b0 G! e* ^- t# ^% t* a
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 t! I0 [6 @1 ]9 T7 t# kItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion# O& Y1 C+ Q6 Z8 Q" s5 W- Z% P
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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