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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# l% F5 z# D+ j# b( u

  o' p( o) Z' j$ ^! Q. D: J- ^Market Commentary+ ]" K- T, d' {7 v0 H
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
' g" e( g. v5 z4 \2 GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ g: x% X/ D# n  s1 rSignature Global Advisors
/ {  B; C: C) G+ G- @2 p, F7 p. R  ?

5 [- J& D0 Q$ k& r+ tBackground remarks( |8 B# }- ]& ~( S% w& o
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 H" e( r) X' R: W2 B
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 m  z" s8 s# c9 e Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 q! D8 [- e9 L) J2 T4 \9 O9 }adjustments.) t. v5 G- w9 h$ U1 E) x
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ M, z6 G9 Q2 Bsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ ~& q* R' a2 T. u7 k+ H" q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 q" P8 N* K: |4 ~$ M+ z! M5 e
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
0 g3 k- e$ V: F6 l# T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these- w" f6 [! ~" e5 Q4 D, [# J; m
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.( v' A) k8 I8 _# K1 A
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% t2 w1 H: X0 k! H4 `5 f7 \quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. D& ?# ^' E& k" } Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# r5 l3 a8 w! Q) v) J Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# ~: G+ A1 f3 Y6 k1 _$ ?reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 i0 p: C+ Q' }! n# e  ^
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ q, i3 l) R0 \: c, V4 [/ [4 Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% ^; |( p( [2 a$ O, \5 V
impose liquidation values.7 n" M) I5 Z6 R6 K
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. f: k5 k* V- `: m# q9 b# C$ m/ NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 g" I% o( D# ~4 ]- N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% W3 u, K3 A5 j! Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 N$ W( \3 _1 U5 K4 K
) |8 |6 c/ N, `- _  C* r) }8 I
A look at credit markets# R# Q8 s6 C! F( O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ t* O( c  P, e3 ?/ r
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  L( o. M. Q4 r0 k9 Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 i' n  Q% g9 V. u" s7 jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# \# P( Z9 ^7 E7 a5 N; Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ i6 o! a# ~6 x: g  a0 Eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ W% Y7 a" ~& J' gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& F9 D* J( B- {& r) ?
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! j* e, w: p: L& I8 t Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble) D6 i8 l0 O; t$ w
finding financing.* a# h# |/ q& l8 B9 N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, M8 X6 c& G  x8 j8 g$ D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 `# O: D1 n. V. L; W6 g Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% O. Z& C" T( M, ]- O% S5 L
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 I6 q* i( g/ n/ @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- H% H6 P+ e1 U5 J, `& u, Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; J+ h0 c! a" m0 u5 r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 i" `. a# u8 I
today.% K* H/ g7 h" n! M
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ o1 x" q# l) {) n  Y9 W  x% C
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda. _( X9 `7 c0 f) o
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 q* z9 d- j! w) V: K% [: ]2 k) M
the Greek default.
, d* O" n  g  F$ Z. B, H As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* J: d8 g7 _) m9 {3 E1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) J. @2 |. ~+ ~; P6 U: I) o
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  K- J% ?# v; x2 k$ }
debt stabilization, needs government approvals., i3 c2 ]5 O. v5 c
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ b- C5 {" t$ l2 E. y; @
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- K+ k* M$ {/ {# Z4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
3 ]0 Y& o6 D+ F9 x5 ~
# n7 W, Z* `2 a/ `  p) o- X# iBeyond Greece
9 T3 w. e. m! `6 q1 H( e: r4 o3 W The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 Y  g, S& i/ Y& ~2 q% C* X' nbut that was before Italy.5 t, G8 D/ c) b  y2 K& f
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 L1 ^! ?# |  z: c- i0 ?
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; q" o( P3 z. P$ Z4 Q  |; `Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
3 l4 P; v* C( f/ }. G6 ~
+ e8 q7 U2 y1 F+ ]# c7 N* {Conclusion
) f3 }0 V+ i5 h% ]6 J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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