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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& h2 C- X& C2 t2 r7 J

1 f3 C! o; M# U- U% K. q4 o$ a0 D" \Market Commentary% [; [# X0 ~% r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- c  c: V2 K' r8 @" }  jJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager/ h) ?4 z7 L( O* G4 ]7 ^9 n# o
Signature Global Advisors8 d8 I4 F* l  a* M: n
& Y, r& g/ m4 V+ o1 w. f

2 T( _3 x6 k- F9 b4 E) T. p# Z' `- QBackground remarks7 B. ?" ^  u4 u3 R' Q* R# N
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; i& j9 s* y- b! F4 Y0 A9 e
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., B' A& T- [1 }
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- n: T) B* I& h9 ^9 O2 o# hadjustments.
% G) X, N3 i+ X& {, E' O6 \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 A. N* `8 `7 J
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. D6 r* G8 y# \/ ~5 ?2 C Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' f% D; _) q; p6 ?# llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.6 b; V! S" ^0 ?* c9 e" w1 _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* |+ P# B; ?' G1 J$ `: H! Aadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 O; e; j1 C; M7 k Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 n" X" X9 M; [+ E- B: k9 j$ P
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. t4 O6 E5 a7 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ M8 R" Y( @( c9 |4 g Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* V+ E  q. D+ x5 C# y& m
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 B: ^  U! i3 N8 r, T# y+ Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, h1 Y( ]! c: q1 F/ u7 n6 v- c# Nas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, L+ a4 R; q' H, D0 q7 w
impose liquidation values.% |" S- |+ O- |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 J( e- a3 d# E- y7 \/ {$ YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 A, \( |* G! @0 }( D- c+ x4 G" Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' R; R4 Y7 {" C" @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
( P6 i( i4 m: H0 N7 F) I7 n6 u. q4 R6 ~3 O! ]0 ^
A look at credit markets
6 ~$ Y- q7 E; u) Z  G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 d, u6 U6 ?. y# {5 E; FSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; ~; K3 c; h. B" h5 V0 L$ k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 B5 p; [% w: ~8 E5 L2 p, sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% b& R! K& q- i- O$ R  N7 F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; U( E/ a" T4 r1 i( _4 Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; i/ F$ Q# H' r  _
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 K4 t) ?% m8 p: I/ `; E. ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* P9 \0 [* ?/ O; Z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 p8 W7 Z9 g% v$ R( e
finding financing.  w2 n+ b! k4 R5 q) k$ |' R
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& D  x, V3 t+ g8 h6 k2 a2 f) Swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. X6 i$ w" x0 h9 Z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  Y" {8 E0 I) C! ^" T9 l% A
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 `' W% ~0 v8 {. E$ Z5 Z9 Tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 y2 k$ J2 ~  c0 x) S
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& v( U% s; S& u( B( _  ]
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' W8 J$ \, s; A$ ~, G
today.
0 i+ W+ i2 a9 E# X/ g( C* U/ A: n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ l- ~/ G$ w5 [. n0 |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. N. s( h4 d9 l8 G- w Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ `8 n( q! D' H4 I: R' E% H# _0 P
the Greek default.( T+ C7 W# O: ~. A% T# R9 l
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& a: ?# f9 l: P, S
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 y( V  \) V* @, Y7 \9 Q2 C4 {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign2 M) C/ s. \9 u0 J  ^4 z7 z
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- D, J: y# g* ~) ~7 X( n5 D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- l1 U  ^, Z9 ?
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ b# A0 m' O9 T6 I1 z/ O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* A4 ^+ U5 `5 a8 H
' }( b, M/ a/ U; U  o! `5 b
Beyond Greece
* @9 Z1 r. e3 T3 O( Y9 | The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- K5 \$ t, o% N1 ^3 E1 H6 E
but that was before Italy.2 F0 J7 o! G) K+ m6 v$ {
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ Z4 c! `+ a& i, Z1 N3 d7 t It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, ?6 o) l4 T3 nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
0 R$ M9 t4 S( {8 j8 E4 o$ R( w# |* S/ |
Conclusion
* Z9 R  ^2 E% {# l) m8 m We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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