 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
B$ s# [/ E e0 s# C% h" g The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- @* V8 i/ Q. ]
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ \0 q$ ~& O) I& O, [* H' Dimpose liquidation values.' @1 \' n; \+ v( z; g4 x5 b
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! T$ F+ T1 F. {, o( O9 ?) z, E) D
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ I4 d" s) e& C( y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ l. u% W* V/ D7 L
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 B- C+ f6 ^) \8 R' l. \2 q! r
+ C0 p" p! o; f- bA look at credit markets5 t/ f. A: o: k( V
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ F* W" q* i) u8 w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 h; U9 E- V5 W. f Z% x1 d
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& I; L2 j* G/ @% W3 Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: m; ], o) Y; S. Z* X' _3 }/ U& i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 E) R8 \7 T' N1 u4 N( ^, ^
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 l9 h( I& g2 N
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 ]2 S+ V; p! r+ e0 w5 Spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 m/ I, h( T2 s" N' n( [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 B' { }) [8 q6 y$ {; Z1 Q
finding financing.
. y! o9 x M" l8 k Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 e; y4 ^) Z$ R
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) M+ b$ Z4 n7 v& H1 t Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, S) l* ?- a2 ]1 U& X8 \
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! }4 {7 K, b5 y _0 a5 n4 l( Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 m2 j, g" o. l' K( @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% _4 l* @5 `; K
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. u% @% {8 |* v
today.
9 E: {/ @ c9 o. G6 A2 G4 n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) q0 y, f+ I9 R* w( kemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|