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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation% m$ k- j e( m
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( ~6 I! ?( ^4 _& v6 O& C0 s( Nas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 J1 j* b6 Y' {/ @% Y. U% u+ Kimpose liquidation values.
7 g. D$ Z/ Y; V' A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) g0 ~: h/ T' b2 }+ F
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 {1 z6 b6 H1 } The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 \! Y; r0 e! q+ {% `; }# x, Uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets0 d/ x' z) T# y+ I1 l+ f* E8 a% ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" ^6 T" c, _) u9 z1 ]' e- N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 F) [% \" Y- |+ I
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" j+ M% ~! n. {$ h( |/ Q1 }/ r5 Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! F0 ?& n8 [& W+ w. `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 h- a. `+ ^' G2 n) e+ h$ laccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. p4 P# ~7 w# l. X% |. A
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are B b7 ~! R. M+ J" }: {9 d& b1 w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! R3 K7 Y: C. r% q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 G% G- c! Q# Q4 e" o/ u" J5 i
finding financing.
! y. @& X& V0 t" S5 z) t) ?0 S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ w1 C9 ?+ s) a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 ?+ q0 u% e. J8 k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# E1 ~( j+ W* j @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( D% e$ }& w: b% o3 c; T+ ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) [2 Z8 ~: A& O% C7 Y, o* w/ Obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% x: w( ?5 v' j( ?! M; k1 U0 b0 V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: X8 s2 w) U) r4 k3 J5 f
today.1 N9 u* s2 x+ V& Z9 i
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in j' K% U$ {& I
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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