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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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- N2 [4 D& I3 ?* q  C* F' nMarket Commentary: c$ x( p, x1 T. ]
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- H3 ^1 ~: {, @+ B: B" YJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( y8 U& O. f/ P4 c* m/ w" t
Signature Global Advisors/ z) A  c( V& D+ \

0 \/ @4 [" M0 F( o, m9 l8 o
- L; m3 x/ y8 ]; L0 l3 jBackground remarks
4 ]2 m8 }! A7 y* J2 n+ l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, ~, Q" b0 v2 S2 z* M1 ^" W+ Qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ ~. N% u, X( {" P9 \1 s
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal4 l* C4 r1 w5 G% F. L6 j
adjustments.7 t- {1 D3 [: F* Z
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" E; B3 O! |8 A% q! t
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 \8 y# j3 ^1 a2 g Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 x* E* R9 L2 T7 B& T: s
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! \8 F$ G/ ]/ _  G6 j1 m We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# S: T$ ~2 Y1 zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' V% V  r3 F% c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' b# {$ H- ]/ n0 C# t
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) b! A/ ?" r9 t" J
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- r- @2 O% ~' M/ @; [3 C Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; l# z5 y4 o7 Y* s6 e
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 X% R9 n8 \1 i( R3 L
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; M- W5 d+ ^5 p4 Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: b- @3 y! b, U6 L( T! c6 timpose liquidation values., y- i% @% r; r) ~/ ^7 d% q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ R: j' F  V0 g( cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 B/ A/ ^" K2 u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ \+ w( j: r8 R$ W
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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) S  ?: ]. f( Z5 uA look at credit markets
% @2 H% \' _( \" q0 a: h- s1 b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- Q7 Y( F1 D" U% Q" ^- q* I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% I8 e+ ?! @- n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: |0 y) Z2 J% {# U+ c5 B1 |) t
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: a  d; D+ F* R( g  B9 O* ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 n+ Z* M1 N8 n( A' N* D' P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. j1 \* e0 j4 K
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. A! j' s3 @4 |$ c; v
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- \  f* ~! _& _3 L, ~ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! j1 d$ |, |+ w/ _( E+ Ffinding financing.
' v- L9 r# P/ R( B8 e: H8 x; u, h Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ b2 m" W% M; l8 E& n! V3 P3 W% B2 Hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- B7 A$ ?' E3 M" m; r' X4 p
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' e& b4 n" E+ F  o- o, a: H' c7 K7 N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 a) M$ W! C  [  n4 G
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 S: H! C+ C( Z" y, p, @! ]5 k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* d! A" k9 Y& y; b3 t! U$ G
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: x2 m5 p9 E4 g, |
today.
. h$ R% R9 D7 Y+ y* H# ~" x( T- Q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' {. H" ?5 J, T* P& Z/ F2 demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. y) C; u: A, x, |6 h Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! |: c  I6 A" {4 Vthe Greek default.
- r5 e# J% |: r1 N As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ C/ h/ X- y9 x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" ^/ L. s6 v  l8 t- N) f; |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- y. _" O- _- _, a
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; a+ _$ a+ F' t+ s) U3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 `+ b, x/ k" h; i$ J1 V2 a
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ V  o7 a8 y1 z" X( y( A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 i& v; H$ C# g& x. A) A! \

7 c/ O( ~" x# ^  u6 l( Y* [8 ^, C) JBeyond Greece
3 \3 ?7 p, n! t, i The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 Z- ?) G6 B( @
but that was before Italy.
9 l$ L" \& N9 L It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! q6 _0 d6 ]  k* X; t$ [. G
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# p8 g! \' ?1 KItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& p( L$ @; p: j/ n

, O! U% \: d- u; H9 N0 {/ X5 WConclusion
6 D! J* K+ z6 K. {; v( W We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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