埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2627|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 W2 W# ]+ I: z6 R% G

* z6 ^4 u4 A! E# oMarket Commentary+ b! F+ q+ {# W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! `/ D; f8 [8 r  _3 F+ T1 y* jJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" O- Y2 e- X1 S4 K" g+ CSignature Global Advisors
8 L; c" T! ], O& u& x+ A+ [+ g
/ I# z! p. j; v! v4 G& N2 F  F! b- u9 \2 P$ X
Background remarks
8 N7 o; d4 }- T( L2 t6 d1 [1 r Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; P$ l) T. b& I. N* X+ }
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ |! X2 o& G: X8 v0 M6 b. W
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 [  R& }  `4 q0 P. b$ }
adjustments.6 H' M( S- u3 @9 \: l, s
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% r# a! T3 E# C0 I2 F0 @5 X
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ C' r( r, j) S5 r1 E3 b Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 k  y, S4 ^1 D! t. U) L: alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' _: F" E- G4 J3 M! {8 E We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* R* C8 k, l, [7 l" I5 ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
- _! `5 F! _  p$ i) D Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% p' I& E) s/ i! g0 I' [0 X3 gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* s' g1 C( a! f5 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 s: ^6 i0 S' v& V, @6 I( x- b6 c
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- S+ |9 `" m! oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; D" ?& n7 [+ a4 S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% c9 R) \+ G5 ]; Z% N5 j2 Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 z0 D& o+ j, R' H3 v* `impose liquidation values.: F' L2 V8 J9 i0 q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 }8 Q8 y' j  n) NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 Z1 _  {& n% h2 I+ J
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% p% `" ^9 W' z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 x% |( N* r& U. A, w

  k  F! A- G6 ^8 f7 w2 ZA look at credit markets
  t8 J% F7 e# [( e' W" i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ E& O6 u3 M) bSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* W: S1 m8 r1 c4 T1 r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; F  P6 R! M0 t/ p5 X9 ^then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& Y1 g2 }0 c; a5 ~0 Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 d' w$ L- Q( Eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. q- K  ]% p, q. W7 h% y9 j' hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 J* b1 _5 M- X8 P+ H8 ?. V0 T
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; u# C. H$ u9 _3 t" X Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 g( r) d/ B( X9 V* q0 ]/ E' O5 z4 @1 Z
finding financing., D0 N! |; @. P- _  C6 t) ~
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, A- z+ [" S  nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 |, [/ ^6 M1 B( B/ p7 ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 \! o9 k, L8 B) S% ]( D: M& Cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ |. ?) o7 I8 D0 O8 Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 e* y1 C& K; Y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' F" v  {7 Z- y+ Z: b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. |( y$ r- S; n) Z" p. Xtoday.3 W1 J- m( i7 W9 z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' N" L8 r9 v- B8 t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* ^+ F6 x% \& F# w
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( t. N& H! g% P' B! ]" Y% ~3 u" Athe Greek default.
; Z( R: B7 O! T- i3 e8 j As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' l6 v$ V3 t: G9 b, v/ U1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" K0 O% n# D8 X6 J7 c: q. i0 Q% g2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% F* ~! y; C! U3 \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 S, i4 T4 h7 X4 t, h) e3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 V% x1 @" M! k5 V! `  |0 @. ~
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years) a0 y, I0 F5 Q% @; u& I4 T  F
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
9 w2 q) ?2 R+ R4 F# r- n
; q1 L! j; Y8 I3 }Beyond Greece+ @4 p  f% K, |' \  j- v
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 z7 q5 u, E! y' Gbut that was before Italy.) O6 b* R; g: C, C7 U. f' V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 C0 _. W7 b: C9 K  v
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the' Q8 o7 e! {2 F/ M5 o5 {
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
. K8 q( C5 e5 S1 P0 Q/ j+ R5 P4 D4 x7 A
Conclusion
/ [0 |  {1 x' {! ^/ p9 ~+ V* f+ R; W We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-23 13:08 , Processed in 0.146664 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表