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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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/ l, D  Z; d3 G; h5 `  |* U/ s2 W0 WMarket Commentary
3 @/ ^) h$ N( i0 M! ~Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  o; v/ T8 x, m+ U- hJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! e9 `0 s1 {2 m, A9 J7 K: l$ P& T% K
Signature Global Advisors
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8 J: E. D6 U8 \+ N1 JBackground remarks; C7 Z) b7 f. @0 \, Z1 y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) D5 Y- w0 r4 P& Y4 G
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 X1 q. I  c4 b1 b4 H% ]/ K  N Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 g  @) n  H1 t
adjustments.+ k6 q" V( @, j+ G1 z
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social# J% U( D6 w* h% H) E1 F( ~6 J
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 `9 z3 q8 L8 [) K( m0 ]4 D
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% t7 Y; w) e( K5 C, A  O% Vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 _* Z. ]/ \4 d4 B' g  {# B- e6 F
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 k, T. b9 Y& s5 _
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 E& p0 D; R9 o
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. W1 m" b  ?5 X. T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' @+ I: h- {* N0 O Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 J# @5 ?% x; H4 j
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 X. O4 ?6 z# b9 L; [reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 o! {# P9 G# Y0 E3 |& p6 X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( ]: ?; S+ a: T: E" C4 M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% e" d" W! l/ A! x
impose liquidation values., @1 C  ?  ^0 w- y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# G! `$ b2 D" d& EAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  _. F3 `; t/ l$ M& e5 L; M" W. a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 N0 V; x- {5 ~# c3 x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
: S' _' e! i* Q8 X6 p9 {2 [4 g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  ?% b, w4 `8 l1 i& Z' m# ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 o1 [6 q* v3 B9 I0 K' _8 o, e/ `  m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' u/ y" S( U; ]  I% ~) x1 K, P
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( C, d, [& a$ }) ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ ]1 h" ?) M0 ]& Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; h1 M; ^8 E$ Y3 O8 D1 s8 }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. g7 F& ?, v6 N% y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 K( o' t% r0 u+ p
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
+ k9 B1 S1 x' P" `7 f- i/ \finding financing.
7 y- v$ a3 k8 B+ f8 ? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( w, f8 d  o, C) o4 o
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 q. F/ L4 s6 K3 k! n, G
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. N- a: O' p8 m2 N& His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; H5 j* a! l6 s) O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 {. A( }1 f' f/ r$ Xbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) b* L& O, B( b* O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* [1 D4 @2 m+ z9 v  [$ Atoday.1 L* Z; H$ |4 S" v; v1 R1 ~: U7 \3 G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 v1 \' t% ?& X; _$ o  m9 w0 }
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 ]; b2 [" d4 a7 ^1 }# ?' G0 W  h# w7 @  m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' T) p' B7 E" o: X' Hthe Greek default.( m# n- n7 Y( ^- t& W4 N5 e
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 P; d( s" ]4 _: x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. @; ?2 u* ?4 h* e( f+ e4 m* b
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 U; R# V! M. P7 A' r. d9 l
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 i  r2 G% y* Y/ }' j# Z9 A3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ E5 |  j- s+ f( R+ Q1 k; b! U8 fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. ]. `& }% H# ^' I0 ?; D9 j& o* C0 O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& w* u( k1 L$ w/ p
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Beyond Greece
5 \% ^* z6 S, y; s The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- r# ]; r7 Y; C2 G) r/ z/ lbut that was before Italy.% s' ?: ]9 e# h6 B
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# {! k! \$ {* J" l* e/ v, t- c
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  f1 ?" \7 W7 S9 {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. `  z2 `/ C3 h( a- d
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Conclusion
$ d; L( T5 E3 p9 b, o+ d% R+ I0 |8 ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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