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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 X, p" ]0 E6 [+ S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) z" b: u4 u. E% X' A
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% e2 @. v; t9 a
impose liquidation values." g+ x+ \; T) z: D
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 s. i1 v @0 l7 }4 n1 {1 ~9 U
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' S- d) {* _4 C9 a! @2 Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; w9 z: m m( n% U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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5 j& y. X0 K/ S/ {4 P$ y+ Z% {" ~A look at credit markets
, L' u& R8 [0 Y. v: {2 j0 } Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- Z; M* e3 ]% I0 ]
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) n$ N9 M* L2 J. O) C8 g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 j% [- {3 j9 {5 g5 e Athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. x+ T+ [. \) C8 j0 J% {# D
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* w( x2 D f/ M
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( h7 D. Y- N5 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 l$ l) S) J* Q/ K" b
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield. I3 K9 ~; f- v- w1 |. n' c: n
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 p0 a+ S ]( J* v
finding financing.
1 l: @( G$ J y% \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% W2 N2 @. x; \+ u3 p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 B- w* b3 ], q' a Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 ~2 `% W1 W) \( Y# C) a
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: Z7 G- ~0 _- v) i7 O$ G( Cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 y- U" m* Q) Y) O8 p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 U. ^) N K( y+ q, G7 o0 U5 L) @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( U0 X1 K! n! s, k9 Mtoday.
6 C! `: p# x9 G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 g: p1 V5 o" u5 I" Z4 U/ `emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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