 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation, r8 C2 i4 |: T
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ A* \# Q% Y3 ~- [: \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. z/ J* U: c8 X1 q1 U, I5 l
impose liquidation values.
7 @5 u6 H! y6 Y) q! R, } In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) Z9 L$ ^9 d% z* Z% XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& b+ {3 v0 C5 l* y, ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% H% Z3 M P* S1 C# I4 C$ lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ {7 ~7 S" O: P; K( |: M
" h- @( t1 ], A9 a W6 M3 ?3 [! N
A look at credit markets
" T( [3 x( }' J3 `, i' @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 |' {% R& V# U% ]# W2 SSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 M! b5 D) b7 j5 s' j. ]6 o' w High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* _1 c/ b& ~: ]8 T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: G; i3 R. X( O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- k; `$ m& }" S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( A% |3 c, c- q( _: f& H. }( F4 OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 F/ J& Q% q" _4 I0 L; X; G0 Z6 ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; \7 ^8 k% U' O1 X7 x8 m7 U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* q2 v) _! j8 i8 ofinding financing.. W2 _& w& ^0 P& i6 [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; Z' M- [: d3 g# ?9 c. ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ ^1 X$ I4 e3 r' J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and n% Q3 k1 W, P" Y/ m Y/ c, C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 I Z( W/ \9 e; p" S
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, ?2 z) ^- b* L- |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ A7 ?! N2 j2 t! U
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- @! ^4 H3 G+ t' r/ C, v
today.! h0 d4 i, _' ~: \0 ^( z$ P
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 D2 |& n8 I. @4 Y& b. g
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|