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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% W0 w. \0 {5 ~9 D4 }4 g

. o- R+ M. X! s2 qMarket Commentary
* ^$ A/ `% I9 G" a  n; y3 IEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* M# K% }/ z; C) [( aJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  e# J, D# d: @$ y( R) K' J* `+ YSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
$ y2 `( p: H! l, C! E& E9 f# \3 X Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
) m( Y# }0 k4 k  _6 p2 Ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." _( ^) `  h( m. K/ l8 Z9 H  G
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 d- _! d) c# d7 ^/ [+ H8 B
adjustments.
- x0 A' ^$ V3 i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 F) [. Q3 z7 x  w
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ L1 M/ O4 }# R0 Z# c( {+ \! J- @ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" E) o3 ?! `. l; K- D4 Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 R3 ~0 P; q6 b2 j% z2 C
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% J7 B, G; a+ N3 r" C/ ~
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 H$ T: ^$ z% n$ \" f: w
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) \8 W0 }& y8 U+ N6 F0 O" A
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 s; K0 L* [' q" w: U: v+ d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
2 |) ]; Q" B5 w$ ] Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: o8 c2 ~2 w2 _+ r6 f' Wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. u4 ?1 ^' U9 g! Z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. s2 t% |3 ~- ]* j, k' Y$ {- P; S- @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. Y: E2 n$ K$ p. w
impose liquidation values.
, P7 c& ^, b. H" L; F! t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" w* ~. i* M. q1 T7 b) N3 R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 E0 V9 D- \& ~3 ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; d% A9 w: H) p4 W. x2 d$ M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ Y1 A* t' \) x8 o$ ?

3 y, H: t$ G5 P) o( D6 EA look at credit markets) G6 P6 B( m# x" ^& V, m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 K( ~9 A' u! N, U/ }5 T
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 m1 p9 B$ @: L# Q" J High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) F! \& }. h4 [then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 C2 R' a1 j& Tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) o* ~6 V6 u+ z5 Z, N3 gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 ~4 R  W9 r$ Z, cCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% Z5 A: N$ y; l2 }( U2 r3 @- `6 {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 M. V) Z. y) Q% |; p, U) n Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 T& g  z; c$ h: J2 rfinding financing.0 [& X0 h: R  l, \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 @5 u( r0 [$ u$ H- @
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( \5 }# n7 b0 J' i# P- V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, O; o! b8 |) D3 k- ]' c
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! v9 b, ?* q4 W+ S; M! G
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ i) b4 C) X6 P& t9 T, T- q9 l
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 z, l* x% g5 ]; O' q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* _3 _3 e9 O2 N/ k  `, D
today.+ n# x9 |  M" E* v  w; s% J
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' i# Q4 N; S$ W& cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# J7 W3 c2 O; B9 J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; k+ n. ^$ R: k  `& i# X
the Greek default.
- N4 N& L  A* U  D7 F: W As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' m% F  d# u. R8 J8 n: P
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, n* y6 x/ }" P' |9 d2 n4 u0 t& Y6 X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 [" _/ z5 C4 N5 I2 d
debt stabilization, needs government approvals., _, X. w$ s  H2 f
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; f0 @8 |' y* }4 ^$ }0 R) Mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: Z, R6 A, n4 _  n- o, ^( w
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece+ q! n# @! \+ [# m$ u
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 N* [# @* {: M; `6 {, |
but that was before Italy.) I2 m8 b3 H& \
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ t2 y* y5 q2 ]+ [
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 u( y$ x) Z5 H. G9 EItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. j" w7 W" u. l" j5 R
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Conclusion
8 F2 d: x+ l/ _5 x( A! P7 n We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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