埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3579|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 Z# q( W9 u2 K, W$ N9 v2 }- }
$ x4 T1 I% t, e  K) A" c0 p
Market Commentary! |( C2 t5 X* R) a! j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 B/ I) g0 K- xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 z6 n( h' s5 G4 F; k4 F/ ]/ ySignature Global Advisors
/ B3 E/ c- O; l: E; F5 l5 w, n0 x0 H0 }

: j0 Z" S: j  P5 I* ?4 t. f5 PBackground remarks
9 |% o3 Z& Z6 j- y- m) G. [1 x Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. G6 k. s  R8 G* `6 J
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" g; w# C4 |% m7 k1 b Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 i/ Z9 `4 F! r" Q
adjustments.+ s/ j  d# `: R, q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ B7 R% p) W& f. l! Msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! s: m1 r& W. z
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are" U' W) y7 R3 k9 V# u
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.6 Z+ {& J- ?9 f, L1 [+ w4 L* Q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 [4 y) Y! c4 X8 Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; t5 Z( H0 g/ p: P" u; u Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ ?0 ]) L! S9 b" r3 M1 G5 s0 ~/ g7 Oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 u5 ?3 @5 y0 R. j& t: Q6 E: z Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
2 H9 O9 B# \; | Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ A$ u8 f8 p6 [" Q1 ^1 r7 e/ |8 K, x, S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; z+ `/ z" o8 ^( ]; n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 }  r$ }$ R) r
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, X. E- b$ Q! [  d( @6 V, R& z
impose liquidation values.
6 Q- q5 Z+ w0 u/ Q: r/ I1 G' n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 d* l4 G: n8 y8 B* qAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., I! E3 F1 K6 d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  T, L  H# }* L! J, Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' {, @5 [# T/ k, M7 U6 _$ _' e1 X& p4 c- b
A look at credit markets
; W8 j$ V) r. I/ m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ n) n! A7 m* T, X) j$ c# [: P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% W8 @- V4 u% e# ^1 w+ r
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 k  H  ?0 i; @+ @, |) n, n+ l5 i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
2 x. z% G8 a5 c) ?) n8 P1 A3 I5 y8 |+ Cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ t7 q" C0 k3 n; ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# ?. F4 y2 i' R
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 \" l1 o6 q# s5 z4 j2 R" wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' l( h- G, z2 y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' I" ^6 \1 B9 \" U6 e. H& s
finding financing.
- X; V5 D' n1 D# Q& k% @( ?. ^ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. Z( |, w' |4 Q$ r7 e6 u. g
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  Z/ _& @' E; W8 G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 w0 `# M. K4 N/ Zis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; L/ ~) i, i; C1 v7 ^3 @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- {# ^' l/ J+ I1 p& C
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., K& z  i) A, r9 h: z" v
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ ^) y* f% q8 o; `, f
today., O) Z+ [, x1 B: _* k: H
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( L$ j3 e) F" W/ _7 k
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  Q& F9 ?# g: \, ^+ N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! J4 V! X1 U8 W$ a, g: {$ m) z
the Greek default.
2 J1 V: h  j5 h! e  g  q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:" A, r# D5 y& h- Z! z+ `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 g3 U5 j. x5 F6 g. t+ k2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" T' U* e+ B' e' _& d$ Q# B0 ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 D# ?7 P- X  Z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 c2 I! N+ m: z/ u+ d
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 `  V2 @2 N; L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
4 R) }, d  O- S
+ `& Q) J+ ~8 b6 I7 E! FBeyond Greece; v1 @+ V3 _0 o  ~
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 n2 h7 U& T( Q: k3 H8 wbut that was before Italy.
7 p# D/ x, G# w It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& C" `/ p- z1 }$ Q+ _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* U2 \1 Q& u. E* I) Z0 r
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* e  r" t) Z6 t0 W
2 X: l! V$ M& G: j
Conclusion
& F% `  s* Y  A$ r6 m  G8 d! ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-3 14:29 , Processed in 0.099690 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表