 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 U1 D' z4 G# {* E6 y9 l The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 U% E1 X) t5 Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* H# f+ P9 _1 j) M- ?impose liquidation values.
$ E4 j5 v9 l1 A( o; {* o6 E) @* I In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' m- {0 p' y% E" z! p
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* k- v4 T) x$ [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# l! ?4 Q+ C: w9 n: u4 G: H* Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
2 t3 e" `/ f& v' O% J k
$ n1 t5 _7 p+ g% @% A! \A look at credit markets7 y1 x* i7 g3 m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 P6 p, @, U8 i4 U- T( P& [
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 }! u1 U- G. e: j/ X. N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" X! F3 ^0 h' T! A; }% Y' h5 |
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! F4 S* C0 l3 O, v) H- w) ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 i' f; X* {' v0 E/ o# E0 \access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 \" |7 i& D: G* `# T: n: |CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 Y1 }' P/ v( W. x
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 w$ l. W+ s9 a) s
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" ?' ~) v% u' B5 @' Y* H( }finding financing.
* b" `& I G. U" Q- W) G Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 }- ^- N% ~! D2 @; n2 X$ [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 L' W" F# [3 z# V) m; R* x d& ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: n) ~' X7 w4 c# q: L, l+ Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 H) F1 l) C- fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 c7 e9 p ?! \% [! E0 bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# ?' S) b, Y& e European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( M- \- g4 n$ |( htoday.
9 i' C; [7 t* r2 @$ k, c. H) c/ f1 w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 B3 D% [" Y# Y0 [( F
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|