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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& f& x4 `- E7 k
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Market Commentary4 {2 Z1 }( t2 `9 ^4 z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 N7 m5 E" i) S: @
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 B) G( o+ d# _+ v. n; ]Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
# r' ^2 E/ D- |8 [0 h* B) J! T Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
% T& W% J6 g3 nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 L. h  ~$ D* L6 o2 p, L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( G( O. Y* j5 O% l" p2 Wadjustments.
$ H9 S! {1 I9 ^6 W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ f; T0 k" E4 n; K9 U6 n# l0 N  C
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" V9 J; `1 \; H Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 D5 E2 k" b" t5 O" V& Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' w9 b2 T% \4 f% k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these1 V, W# T1 v# |
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* S! ~( g5 m: O/ O Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 d3 u# l. w" d6 c( {0 R
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 k; ^$ S" E! Z9 c9 {- u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 J& o* f! \2 h, I/ q# R Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. E4 ~$ s5 k. ]
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 x2 K" X; ?( w+ l2 e/ x6 l% i The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 Y$ F) N" o( ?, r( C4 {& A3 X7 Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 b, h- w! `9 D
impose liquidation values.- T/ Y+ o) I6 D( N4 |6 J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 \0 E; k. I, S- C) {" V. E
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( S1 D* I0 V+ ]7 Q" A" y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& R' _4 a/ Z: n/ M  r- O$ i$ Z' ?scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets$ i8 a$ u0 c# u- l9 N
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 |0 I% @% _7 G; B1 `, p1 h7 M! ?5 gSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( W# a( ~7 o. \$ J: B High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 n" S. r6 g7 ?% e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 W' J( O. R' I3 G( d" Y% t5 N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ ^8 z7 V  q# kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 x$ A8 C7 X6 h1 Q6 h3 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 Q( f( `9 }' x) R$ y7 h2 Gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 K  r* Q( z3 b3 M1 F% t& A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ I$ F  y2 W) k3 ^, hfinding financing.
$ V& M2 \" }  K9 M5 a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. n' P1 d( j  K+ C1 l0 Rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" A* b: q7 l/ w! A4 R7 M* |2 j/ Q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( C$ N* O9 r6 `is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) N. u6 ^, i4 P5 p6 `' P/ i# H
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, k/ W2 p: `; vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) C( K$ \+ e. Z$ ^- W6 E. b2 q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) x7 }+ P. \( y& m  b( @! Z6 otoday.
9 a' f2 A  m6 v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& R& I- p( T% |; C5 \+ x* q/ E
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& x/ U5 h9 y+ C1 \, I Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for) L5 s0 }4 u* O7 n; G. `# C
the Greek default.+ t$ l% X4 q2 m9 N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 d, w5 ?0 k& B4 T9 ^; X& h6 r( s) H1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ I; P: G+ Q9 i" s& X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 j( l# I% s( r% odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 S8 R9 Q+ t1 Q& s4 e" M$ s" ]3 \2 D
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- h4 t! ?% Z! ~& I( {7 dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: o; f) K) v) g5 Q. v4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece. f; x9 R% {2 T, p
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),, T# y) B% f& l* Z
but that was before Italy.
* \* T+ P5 _; x' }2 @7 ~ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# x( ~3 q7 f- e3 A7 N1 A8 d It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. O) W  u9 b7 l8 z) SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 a" O+ h4 N# s# [% C, l- _
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Conclusion  H/ }" ?% v( m/ d) {* C
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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