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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  ]5 U' L9 w% w
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Market Commentary, _  B1 ~8 k; {4 ^4 D; b3 r( v
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 B6 a* y/ J) Z/ lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 c: ]) e( }; M/ _6 E, nSignature Global Advisors
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8 e, B! |* c; z' C% _/ }+ P! e9 @Background remarks
. S# T1 y; e$ N" Z9 [' ^ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, X) Z: t. l/ ?& W0 d
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; ^( O8 n* r# S0 b. z! J+ o
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ R( M* W  b5 x2 [8 o& P5 g! @6 z
adjustments.1 a4 j3 A: T) i% e3 f2 ~) G
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- ]7 J% o' Y$ o* _. T  S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) B; Z5 J  L; e  G$ X8 K3 t1 {% l; u
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. _9 Z6 E3 i) A3 H$ Ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ Z$ |" \0 V$ `# ]( q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' X3 i# M( a/ @& ~7 yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) l8 [" ]8 w  g
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& j) H! x, I! f( b3 ?$ j$ V! k
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* A! m5 R/ Y$ n5 u  R. d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' D, F6 I( _* s0 h3 b Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; V1 m- o, i9 ]( o4 [$ ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' O: ~* H$ \/ }3 G2 l$ d" \/ Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 c. s! f& X- a" d3 v7 Zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 a' o0 Q0 b- q: Bimpose liquidation values.& T& B  F4 Z/ j* P3 N" E
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 ?/ O/ }. L, e! GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 N3 ~; ^  T& h8 i) }
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# z& |' w6 I- c" k  L+ s- R! V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets9 I- o- J7 }/ w8 f" A
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 t, }" o& ?: [% N- K+ {; wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! I1 y4 z( N" V# `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 A; h0 P6 N4 j2 q! ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# \  F1 ~2 M: u. N( J6 J4 i) vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 ?0 I) {# M  A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) {; {+ V" x: S' e2 T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 c: A4 d) ~8 D' K; i5 i  L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 Y4 `5 h3 Q- \" i$ m
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 f$ g4 s3 C0 I1 Y4 z( Q8 N
finding financing.
" e- _- Q  }& g3 B: R: Y' ]" K3 I Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# K& p. e5 Q8 f  c& M
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! U3 c& c# w- h. @1 Q! P( l+ i0 K) Y' w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 D  A+ r+ b- U0 v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# q( ?9 l6 K1 j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: g. Q$ P2 ~5 {( i0 s6 O1 L
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ ~2 C5 M! ]' }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 P: z- p/ V. X- ptoday.
1 F+ Y6 ]3 j! n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 i5 a9 e( q4 f; Y7 \emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 s6 H$ \" b9 ~, ?
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: c+ E5 J  \5 W( R, Ithe Greek default.
. w& e; Q5 F  M' x' E As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 y% M& M( s' Z: K, |7 \1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ z) `* H& i" q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  \% R' w: [6 q$ v% F5 D
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% P4 f# O$ i2 Y! l7 ^) j% H3 F0 G  v0 l3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 z$ y$ j" |/ E' `. s
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" z  f4 ]  Q: U/ h; v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 _6 e6 b( W% W, h5 V, s5 P

- ?& L9 P* |7 V0 P0 O% \& r, ~Beyond Greece
& U8 H  b( F$ f* N9 ]3 W The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, H  Q: {9 @1 U; d- S$ ybut that was before Italy.9 ?5 Y; j* y. }9 i# `( w  O
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) g: b, k, k5 O* `+ b It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 n4 Y# ^! l0 G: ]; nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# P3 @+ g. ?' a/ r. j; V  d% Z
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Conclusion; O+ i; N) s, e: ~1 v. |
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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