 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
& O) d& s* V3 i1 E5 h4 W$ X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, `) m9 D* u$ g- L9 b- Las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& G0 h& c" c- n q3 jimpose liquidation values.2 u3 N2 J" S1 }* t" P" H2 t
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( u' K! y; j0 W3 c( O
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ G( I: J+ T d# G The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& W, c1 o1 @0 U S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 t0 W+ W: Z D/ x j0 T7 i! R5 Q
- i4 p5 E' w2 ZA look at credit markets2 L4 x6 [9 ]/ M( ^
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ o1 h( E1 t' R j, }' |5 p
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* }. l. ]7 m5 p5 w' u3 W6 M1 D
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 o4 U. o7 i5 i* i2 G( tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, a9 |8 ?' ?; ]% e$ o9 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ a8 y( k& P% J6 Y$ }4 Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 Y" U3 f' w: w+ Y# K% x
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: B! D6 z* d+ T3 npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 i0 r9 l/ @# |& Q W% q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 B- |1 b9 o, E' E; vfinding financing.
9 a& {; r x, q, | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( X' l& B- I, ?3 X0 v9 y9 T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ S! S4 J! e' ?! p V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' Q7 Q! i3 `8 {8 A$ O" H
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ H2 i* R( X: \( t
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* y5 f5 n" j- I/ H6 Y- D# gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 |# {; B, s2 q4 a; ?, G2 s European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 y! w" W$ \0 a% E" b* b$ r! e3 o
today.5 U, I! T- k! h: {* B1 b# ], c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* X i" O* U# \2 R
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|