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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 q8 v8 i9 h+ |) Z4 j

8 D% B& @0 a' }' I4 z; [& hMarket Commentary
4 U/ s. E: a" t) Q) L7 g0 e' tEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. n2 \9 J1 F! W2 x- `- S1 W, QJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 ^/ h3 `! f) y" H5 B+ ~Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
/ `( \  b# Q5 ?& d! h6 x: p Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 P9 Y) ]0 m! A9 T9 h! qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- V- c- F: K- }- ?( ^
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% K5 ~5 c: k$ m% P+ \adjustments.1 K: S% a; e" @# }
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 n8 B6 I& K0 V! Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ q, D5 `; J6 {  d" w. m& m1 x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# l) P2 m. O* _8 g! clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, W& n1 {7 V  B5 t& \; } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 s0 K& i1 a- y5 dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  y0 f& @: k7 L/ E7 i, J
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& w* Q4 T: }7 k8 u  A4 N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' D' s" O! N$ o: n8 z2 b2 C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 C% x+ ~1 v% Y' X1 j" N1 B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have+ I( L' K- i( `8 d2 i
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! k4 P2 k5 Z( z4 M" `8 g/ N4 ]3 L# O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 v9 r: Y4 u  P
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 i3 e, z* T1 |& B0 _7 L1 nimpose liquidation values.
2 j" u: G2 ]  ^6 s, d  B& U- [ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 h2 O- h% x  ]( l% B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ q& F. r3 t. I3 ^3 ^8 i5 c
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# U  ^% p) L+ k7 D
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets3 @" t) U' r3 w. n' V. t0 k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% L( F) ]3 w8 j: I# O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; F+ a" D) f- Z  P  a+ t High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! X; F- S0 _" K) g. f" g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: U1 X& a8 ~1 R8 F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 ]) {2 s: Q! p7 l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 Y0 {4 B6 Y: S8 w! T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* `9 R& d2 _+ r+ M. Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* n$ [; U5 F6 S7 q/ \, x9 {% {4 u7 P Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 p" i9 q5 O4 C! R% Pfinding financing.
0 ?: M2 _5 R7 m. Y3 s Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 J8 y9 n/ Q3 \* owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 S4 l+ e! |' u Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ c1 |  Y. _  a& e* C  F5 T! M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. X. d; G5 P7 Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 ]0 U. l4 U1 ~- gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* J* H5 t5 {5 |! g& D* }6 L European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 B( |6 a  X" Q- s+ [. h# a
today." p' _& P* U* O& n/ _
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; I6 m6 M- T: c7 k" [! `0 Q/ o( a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" `: x" J0 [. Z# O* ~1 }& { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ [5 v8 b/ F" U/ E2 q2 w
the Greek default.
8 s4 G* e8 _4 \4 b$ {5 Y$ E6 _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* P9 r% U$ h$ o: m8 {* o0 z! t
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 B, T+ J& n+ _! h4 y7 o- q  {
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  Q' ]3 Q" b) G/ {0 ?6 X2 Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) S* o: r5 d( v( K  S3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ d' j3 V6 j. U" x5 U; Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" v8 H* L$ V% o/ c" x/ R: A' X5 d
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 k; n$ [# H" x) I
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Beyond Greece
/ q. l0 V" j* L8 B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),( t( m; W4 W# O+ ~: W) Z: |
but that was before Italy.
8 A! @! l- U9 ? It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! B5 \8 w. S7 h2 O  c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ {* v3 K& k- X% u: dItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion8 u$ y. _+ r& u1 [- B% v, I
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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