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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
' `) |4 c' i! q+ m# k3 k4 J. X! vEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ |- h$ I# R2 i+ x, w& n* }James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- w  b. R: m' X! A4 _
Signature Global Advisors
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9 [" ?* U- z- K: X& A  {0 X
+ z7 E7 F* \. K2 a/ VBackground remarks" [, b  T/ d- \$ L! N% c2 Y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 B: A2 S9 {9 w5 E6 C+ Ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. q2 W- n. o% A" ^6 h+ }0 s5 m Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal$ t, ?- W* E) s, c
adjustments.
' x0 F1 g' U7 n* U+ M1 I; ] This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 j' q8 E) m: Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 ]/ q& a# q& f, _9 k
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. R; L6 N. f! V+ N! \* r7 T& L/ s2 Jlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 n# m1 {2 f  ]# @6 v' R3 t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 h. I  z! y: X/ V
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.* \. ^. w0 ?7 l* w0 W
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# j  q' J- Y0 m& l! A4 j7 S- Oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 ]5 I4 c" m4 Z# D! K) [& G( W' G Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) `1 J4 W( W7 T" I! ~6 Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 w0 S& S; q$ Q) [% c4 areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  `# o* D5 g' a8 _! h The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; N# e2 s' J! L5 P5 Zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: b" C  z% P# u( eimpose liquidation values.
) Z- c+ B' w1 |  } In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% Q9 B( I" l8 b/ O* }1 M2 J0 XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 x! _  D! W5 f5 k' m. H+ X
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  C& N( N) l; b2 V2 w/ c% o
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 r) E- u" z& n& }
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A look at credit markets  ^' _; |! G7 {
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. x/ b5 _1 f# y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) c/ ]" X+ k. B- ~. ^8 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
9 p/ Y0 _, G  d# B: v/ Lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: S4 L6 Z: p8 C* v. t& ~
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 ?  L3 G7 r* I: Y$ Waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
6 N6 a* r4 ^* A( z. w( r) h) GCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 `0 o5 B$ q5 X+ r, @6 R; d& W
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& a" i: i, f" o" o
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' m6 w' t$ ]$ \! q! p9 ^: x3 B0 h' }
finding financing.
( G7 y2 M, F0 v1 q5 v# Z% P Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 C. F# }+ z& M9 b) l! l$ swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 i; C. e& D* r3 M5 d5 y; I
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 K4 c# K6 E( i0 l. G8 o2 j& o
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were6 Z4 p( D( j! G* s3 @3 T7 P
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. T9 l- B1 S" s0 N+ g6 K- P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 v) L% ~1 B  |1 Y' i* |
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 f1 `) D% `! C: O8 o
today.
; V: [7 S& F* z4 M Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ h6 d# S8 B6 e0 m; cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, n- {7 \5 T* C) D  i8 P  C Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  t1 w. G+ G# J4 u* W0 ~" hthe Greek default.6 d2 X9 ]8 I' T1 ]$ E0 o
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( v/ _& ~/ d7 Y  S1 A1 m" u3 j% c* |
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% i2 T6 @# H* I( {' _- i$ b8 X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( T, a) D# w3 \. V- T6 |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, [0 j( @, b3 S3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' I9 u! _0 t' y$ P# bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- N$ }, z( c/ C3 A" q% F% r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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& b. j8 `3 W6 F% j' V5 rBeyond Greece
* m1 H  Q6 j# x2 f" U: v8 u. f The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: _2 c- H2 X% `* Y- D) L% K; Jbut that was before Italy./ C5 |; P: [6 ]! ?. v
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* f$ g4 j' \* S8 w It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ L5 |! F3 E, R: C# Q1 E5 p( b# C
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 G, n3 ^, S6 u: H3 s8 y
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Conclusion" N; p3 k* p& I- B3 F( w+ m3 |
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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