埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2472|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
' B! o; l8 N0 G/ m% X. k
) V6 v( g" i& c. P. `& B+ T( kMarket Commentary
$ N: b9 h' r8 z! oEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 G0 f" l+ _# y& j
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ [! F5 p* @3 L4 n. XSignature Global Advisors
( t7 n7 _7 L% v7 t/ O5 k9 _( f  Y3 K) M! [8 x4 {4 o

. H: ~5 ^  Z* H! gBackground remarks6 j, k/ P6 M) M- b0 x3 B7 h4 A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 \) E1 _) ^+ v/ f. j, y' u1 {6 r8 Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 X6 }4 E/ E" O5 t, x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal: H; e* ~& Z, G) b( t
adjustments.
4 k1 R7 Y) e! N/ ]; C, ~ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. L  e/ O& v4 z# Q3 @) A9 b& i
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  C/ b3 ~7 C6 W5 v! c# s0 T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
, ^3 E, O8 ~, }# plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 \8 v$ z+ {& K( W5 s& n) F( f" O We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
9 p5 W7 L0 V8 T* _0 l/ X, eadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 ]$ s% H! z  s+ T1 A5 b* E0 P; l
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ N0 U5 G( {2 g( u" F5 p) Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 ~7 {' Z2 k5 E% G6 D1 F( S1 E( _4 }
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ G- {- y: k  C3 `! ?4 T Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ i8 ?& H3 F! L$ R: \6 \# N
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 G& e. L8 M' `! L  \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, k  b/ D: c6 o6 v6 A
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" I* P2 t; I: y" J
impose liquidation values.
. W9 d6 h4 ~! u. o In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 p$ Q6 X% A' K: @( E. K( @
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 p) G; B% {- r9 V, G. }3 S The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; T# k" U2 Z- J* K1 Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. X1 d6 [5 ]7 Y" @, x. P) y
% P. `- q7 p! S( [/ }* c' Z! V+ d. n
A look at credit markets$ e  F- t" G9 S  j
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( u% Z$ l1 G+ n8 o1 A% JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) y( ~7 e/ r$ I! `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; _- u$ g2 A( I
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 b& o5 L9 ~. O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" V: X4 m3 f$ R& t# d! H, zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( m8 s. B" L' t, ~) I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: f! ]) E) i9 @! X+ _1 v
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; o2 C8 m, `+ r+ D' m! t% j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% }8 D  }2 S2 v- efinding financing., ?- Q8 j; u8 c+ H* j9 d
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! v: S8 N  r' j0 H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ n/ J' r( C0 I% A$ D& [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 w, Y5 }! T* `3 N; s. `
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 B* A  @/ z6 O: E6 h# e5 T# A0 [! Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 \# a1 x7 S1 H8 v5 z* V' p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 D' l# [" ?) H2 r European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& }7 e7 i4 u) n  i1 f5 @6 G2 L& Q6 D
today.
+ [! E9 e5 k# J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ B' A  Z- [5 ]* \% demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 j! o6 q  D* O* J* p  V
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; F( u4 G- j- C4 u( nthe Greek default.
; N( r# j" H8 V As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! ?( }8 [6 Q) ^
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' |4 \$ C2 C3 i1 I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- v. [) s6 b/ \) \( mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 S) \# }  ?6 n. j3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. F1 J, N6 P( o; ?* o& j' P' R
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
/ W8 E9 M4 l5 k9 i4 y" e5 ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: m  n/ b$ L; e( _* b
3 o- @8 ^7 S% [" }
Beyond Greece
2 s! n' `% {+ O5 U The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) {4 w7 D+ V6 d7 i# Z
but that was before Italy.( a8 X* o. w' T2 L8 A+ @4 H' V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 E' m9 \& z' Q9 e8 \. p It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; J7 x1 H1 u4 f7 {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
& ~  H' Y; u! W* i7 x) @. w. O# D* ^1 o, B
Conclusion
: l8 H, b: e, \' Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-2 21:14 , Processed in 0.157948 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表