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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。) v! H3 _/ a  l6 u6 ]

1 Q+ t, r* P2 }8 n1 T" _Market Commentary7 H) u2 a1 n$ q6 o2 g
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) ?  n4 g, N  rJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 t- x. x' c4 r) S& s
Signature Global Advisors
  E# M$ u+ o5 @, `5 J7 V/ ], s7 D" u5 G% G- Y$ H) ^6 Y4 l" F' C$ Z

2 w% }6 w/ x1 V3 L% w! X7 ABackground remarks- o  Q4 F( I2 }7 b% s
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& }- A9 f/ ?/ Oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 c3 b7 b+ f$ u: @( H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# j( i8 ^; e7 Z' X+ C6 h$ Z; badjustments.& b+ M$ A& I6 v. S( I( n9 h
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; i# K  C9 i5 }3 K- L8 m6 F( i6 Isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
( b* ~9 y1 v0 A7 T9 f Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 Y/ _: L% t2 _% x: T4 u
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ A' c! k7 [- p+ h# ?7 h4 X6 s
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* z; `+ P. Y8 x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" R' i; I0 e* p8 U& @5 n Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' n7 y# P% O& `! c3 w/ R% Zquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( ?' }0 @0 G) Y/ K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  w# T  c# h; t) A9 s* u
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 _6 O3 _& u9 L) Ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, a- W* R! L& ]8 d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: m, F. ~8 [7 @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, Q' y9 m2 q9 Y
impose liquidation values.
0 l8 B5 [' t+ l& C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% @7 @5 I3 @0 z  p& SAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- o; n2 g; i0 ^# d4 e$ t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 f" l+ J* m) |  g3 M3 @* i' C. Hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; t  p; ~# q8 Q4 e5 l7 S; n/ Z) w% e9 b' ]! Q/ C+ Z: d+ x, E
A look at credit markets4 Y$ T( S  b2 R/ t) F& l
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! I! r( a. v) c$ Y4 X1 T1 F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 F0 q: X, @9 B High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 t" b7 b! y  A; B9 [. K
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 l4 g& q$ @% S7 _/ x/ N- u* g$ [2 E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ y& O* w" |5 [, ~$ Raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% F) T- L1 i0 k$ k( }4 J/ FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# I7 b0 p5 q: f, J, b- ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 x3 q& u" U% Y0 @+ ] Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ m& V  e! I* ]$ A/ U  Jfinding financing.
" n9 a# \* {( G- S) g' M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 W  z+ t( T9 C+ p, E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ Y5 r2 i( [; A5 x
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 _8 m& a& `6 ?) @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% h- Y9 f# h) N' D, K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) I7 U% s$ S( Z0 `+ {- n" K, ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- E& a# n  l/ p6 {$ M) O. [- X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 z$ |7 g0 c* R; q& b5 J
today." b9 ?+ T* f$ h4 W
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( E& E( {+ ?/ J( E) c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 j! i8 l- o' G1 {* Z- S$ b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# _" s# o/ @( C9 B0 Ethe Greek default.
* R& ]3 n) w; D3 K) t2 u4 V As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! a6 E! `8 Y* n5 R" a3 T& U
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& V) m- }' u: H2 B8 ?
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ P. j& `2 ~% ~2 O; idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 y5 `2 Z' k& B- e( ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% K) g* q- s' d. Abanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 [6 P! L! R7 c# i9 Z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. j0 _) {" o1 z, d* B2 e3 w: p/ }
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Beyond Greece- y& M* u- y" ^
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% L$ a& J) _9 G# G
but that was before Italy.0 M* Y" Q/ k6 A9 S9 P5 M
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 R8 y" ?; _2 f: ]' p8 q* r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 m/ l& |9 ^! B. h6 ?Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. y$ C, Q+ a" X# `9 W4 |
5 d3 |0 n, ^/ C% \# m+ h
Conclusion
& F7 I7 Y1 w7 h% t7 u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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