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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
  _( J$ U  M9 w% a4 k& z5 yEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 K& n& I3 P7 xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager; d' J  {) O8 O0 `" u
Signature Global Advisors1 p+ \2 i& S7 X7 j9 l" E

' n1 [1 r- n' C  X
0 v- W$ K) W* z) F& C' GBackground remarks
' T: l2 s0 r  e6 U( |1 Z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- Z* V9 e  H. C4 [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- @  I" U, }3 T& h! E
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: }/ O. q/ E1 m1 _adjustments.; }) a# T. [2 ?
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* Z5 H+ k( |# \+ p: X( ~
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ A( C9 H0 f; T! q; t/ E& B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( K. S, X/ u/ N# x( ^" `1 Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 u+ p( ~. ?) c. o. x. f
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% Z& s  ^) B" X8 G1 U# ^+ H
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 a: F, s# c% z0 x
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 p: {" t: F6 `" b" X
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.% T# [. X& @9 t  `
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ w+ z4 H6 ]5 v7 R) S# w" q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
) H8 x& ?9 r0 Y1 y6 B; [reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- s* [9 [' H) v& {0 s1 a3 Z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ h1 S% w3 E7 V! U0 }% m0 Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, ^5 Y: i2 ]5 P6 w0 ]. I$ Bimpose liquidation values.
, Q3 a! Y5 p* g- A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 J6 }4 {+ Z- n# l1 A3 `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' j  C1 \) C7 x! U, g
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension3 i; `; }7 y2 b9 R+ `: l% R1 ]" l
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% ^. ]. i* w. `
6 x/ h+ m0 j6 m) Q7 X" I+ e
A look at credit markets
, a9 x" h9 d# V5 L% N# f5 w Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* Y6 T# p9 p1 V" I: d6 I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 i! R$ B2 g  I0 U
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 N, ]$ f2 y, U. S, a2 S- Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ a. E+ K' ]! d$ P7 s
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- d5 n0 h6 R# Q3 i  l0 ~; e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade* e$ t) m+ i6 Q1 [; K; `2 b
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 h9 A* W1 d* r9 W
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ k" g4 j% g& }
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" G  n& x& p1 y+ `finding financing.6 g- `9 |) }5 l7 c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 Q% A; R" O6 t+ ^" j0 c' \& L1 v$ B3 ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 `# ^* o: y# M1 P, o' e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. |+ j5 p+ e! A0 y# ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, ?$ S# r# E2 _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ h9 T  R0 B0 g3 }: Z/ H) [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# N: M6 j7 Y. l4 r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) [2 @# O# F- R: f6 a% N/ t
today.
7 g8 }+ l% [) X: m2 @2 u9 K# N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; |/ `) p. |# m
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 }$ N( q$ Z# {5 b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! \* K; Z9 ]; s% I3 E3 I
the Greek default." b9 K  q: o& f. ~9 m8 _1 m5 J
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) P. G4 g. L' A- _3 d1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: N; T- q8 \3 f& A2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  J6 _& Q0 t, _5 C, O% N2 Q( Kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ V5 x# X# i2 X# I! `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing* T: A: [& s3 s% m# h
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 w% N4 ~% m2 ?( u% n0 M; @" y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece' Q: x$ @( E+ B6 d) B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," C& C. y" L; i) n# ^- K: p& R
but that was before Italy.
5 L+ O- Q. t) X9 w  I9 M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 {& C' H* {% r+ k6 V
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 T; l% m$ l0 L( O0 uItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.$ ~0 T2 K5 M+ p* q3 u& O( o2 ?

; j# Y. i5 w. Z' M4 _Conclusion
; H4 v8 n5 l; f1 m  C" u: v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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