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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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8 F7 c' T1 L% w' O# T& M, \' cMarket Commentary
  d* w% |4 Z, O+ ^Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 N% G# D- Z: U7 g0 L3 U  {# Q4 k. t
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 ~; ~$ g/ e4 r
Signature Global Advisors
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, [, T3 x/ ]; |- h( t# q
Background remarks# J9 j7 H1 e& W% X% i0 y3 h
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ b; h4 r& {# i$ k# jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) E( S( r: A4 c" n! s7 V% N: M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 y) I* ]8 ~5 t8 C" m* K
adjustments.
2 Z9 r5 U+ F& _7 ?( E: W7 g This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social9 r7 G$ m$ d! ?0 e" |
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# Z% {% F2 A* P2 t1 X8 J
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& N: o: d9 P$ e& ^3 G$ Dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.# ^2 g7 Y/ a) W2 e) X- N* V
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- K# g/ `" V6 h4 S0 w( z4 badjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& Y" {& S/ e  o; V9 r. X; {: z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 q# w/ b9 F& N6 E  jquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! i% X( i6 Y" T; f
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& [# @3 q/ ]5 w* q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 X/ T/ H- f; ^: r' L
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 L/ t: p# }8 [, A( v. E7 w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 u' I# _" Q% i  Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 D6 V6 v( G8 K' s1 I
impose liquidation values.
! q7 \6 U. t+ @: v1 ? In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ Q8 t* C3 O- k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ o1 y# E5 ~* d; B5 Y% K$ n* F The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 ]) @3 C1 s$ y, S  _
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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4 X. @5 i( ]4 \' Y% |A look at credit markets$ w, [, j+ ]8 u) A9 d9 d* k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; D/ c( k5 ?8 D  I" y% W6 i9 H; ASeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# z9 f# u6 {( y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 Y# C7 \0 [  }. t' c, x+ l4 Sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 v) ?% q$ p& z6 O  W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; ], c5 u8 W+ K' i- i4 Maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# S3 _: S( F( w& i
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 L* E; ]' o, K5 y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( Q& e- f. U& r" [, P4 G5 z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; H/ X& r  c9 U$ X6 h' [
finding financing.
1 t: [4 e4 c- \; \  {) L+ W$ a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 _$ C' b+ M4 h5 G- t7 f6 }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! Z' E8 B* H& ~, J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; G+ c+ ~6 Z9 e3 c7 a/ L" Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were6 U: Q- @# @7 M3 ^5 l
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( h! A1 |  a: T& lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& G* w3 ]: M5 S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 S8 k  ]. C2 g9 S
today." x8 t  M0 j" i; G; n- a" }
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& j* w- C% s, I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- M/ j6 E. X, ~; J/ C$ J9 E! @  o
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
- }6 ?1 i' M% \8 Y% Othe Greek default.
+ l3 l! d( W) H/ V% x9 R2 A8 x As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
6 }% h( o* T) t# ]) q  ?) M+ L+ z* p0 {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default6 M& T1 y8 ^5 ?' l9 L. x6 k8 v3 N4 C
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 U6 W+ q' K$ t7 B2 w/ X' m1 h2 ^9 M
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; P) H1 G4 ^. k4 k/ }! [8 J5 Z; t7 x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 k9 {$ V  }2 G& d( a# k+ `
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* B/ s* f( {; l& n; f: {: p2 Q; v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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3 F) l( w1 B+ MBeyond Greece0 x/ g5 T$ f* R! Y5 f
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 T5 j6 t( B6 z" ?5 ^5 W
but that was before Italy.% Y9 a! L- J1 Y8 @6 A" [( S
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 ^, o6 M4 f  Q  g7 A8 B' t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 m- C: w  G6 V' N7 D1 AItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. R; ]4 v" Y( M! C

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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