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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 v& n7 z* W% h/ Z) P
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Market Commentary) I1 G1 m; x/ D
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  F" ?( V7 c) u  H5 |7 \2 \
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  x, c# ]( v6 @6 Y
Signature Global Advisors( R- H5 z, H! u2 @- o

) O) H- b7 g  M# G
. V4 a( H: V, ~  \& tBackground remarks
8 l3 {2 d5 G5 u! h6 r2 C9 e5 u" z% D& @ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& r+ ^8 S8 K' Z+ Was much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 H7 a/ j& z: {/ D  s1 F9 H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# t8 ]7 e$ c! H  tadjustments.) S* t+ z% E& w$ ^% Y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 v0 g9 d1 W$ ~7 Q* vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. I9 V2 K2 J8 M: B, M$ t Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 P: \* Y4 c$ N, M/ n
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) U4 P$ k+ Y" Z+ {5 L  y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' a8 k) k8 r* n% d& Padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, _$ d+ @8 G7 J7 P Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) E( W' z" o3 ]1 k( a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 m+ z' n4 n1 C, T& d. J Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 p, ^3 i% z9 A$ ^& A Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  p9 @- D+ A# B+ T! o& Q4 s; Q4 W
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
9 X( y; `: V3 l The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& {# q9 X" g, @' x( Y& \3 tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 Q: j# f( X+ m6 n  E9 jimpose liquidation values.: R/ s4 J- {- G$ N5 X* \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 v2 t  l* [& j5 B6 w$ @( _% S
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& k) y5 q4 E4 X" w" j; A2 r The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! k2 i. j4 K8 @6 }, F4 H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( z$ `$ e" O. |

* I+ b* j5 s% c4 zA look at credit markets
! O  n- @" V1 Y9 U) _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 e+ Q2 U( A. a2 Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* V( d" X" `7 b! R, F  N" }% u
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 `1 k0 t3 d. E- }) C2 u
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& Q! X$ n! V  o, ~  obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% B' s4 J2 \8 A$ m  i2 K: k7 {- S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; [8 W+ M0 C" Y! M! G5 w& k
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( k+ X5 p' r; V, r- opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# K/ D/ Q( c" Z% M0 L2 S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; ^6 b% ~% b$ Mfinding financing.9 R5 `# o! o/ d: E, Y0 Z6 H
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  w: o% M: {' zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; ~9 t: _6 }+ O2 @4 R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) R6 P' @; P1 x* ]
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 h) z% M* e' [1 U
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( w9 A8 i& A; o% R
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# P$ ]% T' `8 t9 D9 O" J: s) m" d! j European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ b8 j$ k8 ^- l( X  J7 B9 W
today.
+ b7 ^2 O' H* ^0 h& P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 x! S4 l( Y; Q) a7 @
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 }$ ]$ A" w' l, z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; M' I: K/ ?4 ~% V; X. cthe Greek default.
/ J4 S' {; Q9 `3 S# B As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 E: s4 a% j1 U! i: F1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ n/ T$ H" x2 t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign+ [+ `" p! U2 p$ d5 M4 v+ b
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 ?* j- K6 o6 z( }
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 W7 g; o% m- w$ x4 Z- A, M
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' I9 C4 g0 r* B" e. q+ o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ }! t$ P, `% M  s8 X9 h

" p6 F6 f, Q1 z  G$ I6 p* mBeyond Greece
* |, j; T" z' j; @: J" {+ N  m' o) H The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! C8 L! ]3 w; k: b- K+ F+ P  p  I
but that was before Italy.
1 A) `: G2 u. L! h% w9 @8 O0 o+ g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 P: [+ _0 S5 [; t& l It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% L9 d" }! J, O- l! P5 M' c; J0 v
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 S9 H7 d5 p0 X$ p8 f! k3 y
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Conclusion
' R8 _0 z# V3 `9 @% ^3 f/ K6 n We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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