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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ a9 k* {  ]& o
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Market Commentary
6 j3 B% N6 l; tEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) Z' N( c" R+ y- G' s* \
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' f3 E3 \  h6 L5 v0 @0 l( C
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
( p! a+ h8 F6 p Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* t/ D2 _! F- p9 k7 C0 qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 c+ z5 l# a8 k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. N' t% G7 `, Q9 V
adjustments.) D& Q  h8 ]) V* @- y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; R9 {, l8 V3 y# csafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% m. O3 U- Q3 U* D7 `
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- `  Y* Q- V  klessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. K$ f+ a8 q+ X4 n We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; J- @. E& H, L- D. K) |# Z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) b( j: r) k. d* g) ^ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
1 G! n: V/ z- P7 J7 o; }- ^quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* X/ m8 C- N2 l
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- o9 O3 {' \2 s0 Q2 V* e3 o
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 Z" ]& S4 j2 u, @1 H- Z6 u9 H6 N
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
/ r$ G! ?& u3 q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 o  N! v! y& V' E8 _7 ?( n$ g
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: p* _6 }) _4 b+ V% H4 |
impose liquidation values.
' ?8 e4 b2 o( b9 h6 y( _ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! f8 J$ F5 {! V! ?0 r/ I- dAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% S9 f: y* b9 `  v" d# D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! W) j) `6 k  _) l+ k2 qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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* y% R7 L& k  C# q! QA look at credit markets4 X2 E. {( e; e7 {2 c. I2 V5 o; f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 O3 f, J& }6 e$ I; t# S  U# VSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ |, `, D0 E4 _1 Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* @. G5 t4 G  r3 J( Vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ L4 j4 C- t9 \6 c
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, a& `. P2 ~+ w' T9 g: |access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, J5 U, g0 s  Y3 K
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- {' ^9 b8 W1 f* {5 s% Dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  H, {" m8 Q5 j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 U9 c2 d6 b$ c8 s
finding financing.' ^! u9 b/ E- }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 W# Y( n% W! g3 i0 rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. s4 N+ ~1 }6 X( M- N; z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! V. m# ~* z! p+ n5 W: D
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 i+ w, W2 g/ s- Rgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- G9 @  G, x/ o  b1 K
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 c1 x' T( s! Q! I European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 F3 u1 n& k7 m
today.
. v% ^/ }, P  e  a. X+ Y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 l/ d* ~  ]- ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; r* K5 a2 q! o7 I9 U0 R. h8 J
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; c) ~$ H1 _4 U% A( Q6 f9 V( a; ithe Greek default.
$ X: D8 a2 P/ i6 U& N* ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) B: o  J: J1 D5 E
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default' u0 D. Y! Q5 I. B% h5 Z6 ~4 t
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, y) U: [0 H' T" M. A  u) ^debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ y7 ^4 G6 e% u2 H$ Q% j
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* g% Q: s7 w% M2 f: T- @  {banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& w- x/ @# d1 ?  f: M+ e
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 ^6 r0 o) g4 E$ \
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Beyond Greece
5 F% _8 x+ S$ `1 }9 v# e The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. C% W- E1 W$ ], f+ nbut that was before Italy.* Z7 {9 c/ ]) k6 k  d
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 J- H: x9 |7 W. @
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% v- G; `% V: P+ i0 f# I
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further." Y6 v" j/ Y+ j/ M+ z  ~' ^% G0 S

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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