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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% r, v! i( q' U; ]0 x: z% Q3 N' k" v5 c
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Market Commentary1 r" ?/ t7 b8 m! P9 t' b5 n" q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 Z$ p# ?9 W% n* J2 N2 {; L2 C" SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! S  [: c9 r$ o% X, a* g; ~! |) hSignature Global Advisors
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( a5 L, _& k% g1 qBackground remarks
8 j- V- w- t! a+ A. }8 f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 x3 @8 [9 A7 t- ]as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 Z/ r% }! z7 h& a8 g1 L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" ~9 k0 U- `2 p- A1 F8 q
adjustments.! |9 k- P% Y+ c8 H4 p
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 T9 l3 {& X( |9 j9 \3 r; F- @! o( h- Lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& P4 m. m0 M" b Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. p5 Q. B" c& b+ q* f) E7 i
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- j9 M8 |/ F) } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 @2 Q: a4 o3 t$ @8 o* [( x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- C( k4 ?# Q# R9 x% d
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s  \" H$ |/ R" @0 K( |
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# y. }3 T& d" M* b Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  }1 C) O1 ?( ]' i2 E) d7 `6 a Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 d" _8 Q# }$ [  u, T/ B; W0 J% J2 Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) X. N8 d3 @. Y0 F The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  Z6 n' n: X( z. A
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! y) V9 Z* L/ R( m: g* X
impose liquidation values.
* P( l6 v% S- V; Q$ F/ Q/ w. m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 p( K7 D! ~2 U$ |, A# [+ mAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  c2 e; f3 f3 T  G& D( D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 v. C; x" |& A3 W6 bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 c  v. y) }& y
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A look at credit markets
" t6 G% r7 w. w8 y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# q. \/ `9 M& P& I, j: d9 u
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ r, W1 @9 K- A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: p/ n3 b3 Q" Y! |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& F: z* x. {9 h* z$ o: S9 _# `billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& w8 Y, r5 _& F3 M3 Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 n3 n3 W2 }0 b9 w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 H6 ~' G# Z5 ^5 S! N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." u6 h5 B( [# Q' k2 ~
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ s& y# w1 `+ h1 W- w; {
finding financing.4 a$ p- k' J4 k# H# ?
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: H: ^. A  F1 t- J9 }3 j& zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' D. ]8 m! }' y6 L. H3 k9 l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) g* w0 z9 i% b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 P8 w! t+ @( T3 w# egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, F5 v( o9 }  U! J; n+ H: L  C4 d
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 _" w# B, n" [8 M/ G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% c$ e( y5 W, `  l3 n8 G# b
today.
: i0 N' p1 F6 ~4 Y. r& W+ b% m- H: _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" K' i" |; Z0 Z! Z5 z; _emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 P) c' R* e. I; U% D. @6 a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 |* G& n" Y: O# J! y& }/ ]
the Greek default.& K* r) q1 r/ W$ E  S7 y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% f" m) d3 \! A  d1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. e, ^- D6 X! A; j6 J3 \& p# ]4 f7 p: w2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 ~* P, T( F; {7 I6 `3 C8 ^* x5 jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- a; i9 R0 g6 ^  ?2 F3 W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' W/ i0 ?! _- z: R; z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 `% p" F- B( ~5 p4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece; Q# h+ o3 N7 J! B) \; w& M
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- ^% ]+ Z: K; G$ B# w) M$ f; ~
but that was before Italy.6 N+ H# w: C" v) I. Z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  z9 B, a# J) n' b
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the2 ?" @% F& k/ d' q1 p& \- x, `* G
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion2 @$ ~& P4 q4 j1 f; b$ c2 y& g
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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