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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 v+ V* I( k6 c* m9 }
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 ?" F; b4 `3 G2 P, y8 b- R& @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' F o6 _ B& B8 P
impose liquidation values.; y8 C+ A, k2 P9 ?5 y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 b$ T- C6 @1 q+ J0 _August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, ]/ s( k/ R- b5 D7 J The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% l/ @8 j5 H$ |
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 j* Q ]' S2 u, e; c! \
/ L2 j9 S* [ u3 Z$ T9 @A look at credit markets1 i* ]% ?% C6 s* @3 d* Y. _: I, B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: R( [) @, G& g( D. V, T) Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ _- c/ c$ b8 V! [% v! `5 b3 L
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! K9 m4 t- M" C2 i+ \# r. b. U4 D, Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 c( y1 W, S; a+ y- H; [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& {6 w. f8 I% e( _3 ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& O; p+ i: k7 PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! ]. C$ E0 A4 x8 D& }# o6 |
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: u; e' \6 I( i: Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: n' x8 X- E. d7 }
finding financing.: x$ u `( J1 z+ q! A8 u, h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ y# H: `% @, h% ?7 Dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* n+ N6 \3 t; N J( s
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 M" h/ j$ n% a) yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
|$ D1 L& Y7 s" xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, _: c: d+ \' L @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ \& t4 Q; l. d' \
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# L& |. _4 t5 l" W! @( }; }' mtoday.
8 ^+ z c8 c3 u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, ?) g4 W' Z0 i
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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