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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
/ n7 t  E7 U+ J$ ~  U- T. T" ~( g5 A6 fEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 j% [8 G: @  m; i6 y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 `* t3 S, `/ S0 z' D
Signature Global Advisors& @8 Q8 N2 u6 B2 W) f$ a8 O5 q

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* ^6 T  w" W- O1 {0 w" vBackground remarks
4 S, z% S3 X* {* o: m  h; y: ~ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. o6 E1 i9 [" B# Bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.8 u1 j( {- E- _0 ^. a
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 u. \# u4 N6 u8 ?9 [
adjustments.
4 g3 W; g7 X) `# Z* V' A This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ V6 V0 ~( p: n5 J3 e+ Z
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 O* d6 _7 E* q3 S; L
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 N3 _' w* A& i* ]( Q  A  N" J/ olessons to be learned from the frontrunners., z5 O; r+ @( \& |
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" ^0 X0 j" {9 u/ D* j# {adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) B4 O; `0 e/ D' Y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" _6 M0 v# U$ E* [quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 C( t  q' M" ~  e: p8 D Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
: y# `' _" j% @% F5 B/ R' J Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& E/ z2 L* ^& q/ @0 r! j2 X
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 e/ q8 p/ v1 T* V9 X' ? The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 L- V+ ?" @, ?& m7 qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  `4 R. r7 q4 R8 Z! u' u
impose liquidation values.& f% G' S2 ^4 l" _0 U
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! r& c- z/ z5 s2 Y: o8 I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  A* p8 T$ y. E
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# S7 |0 }  |$ Z9 u5 k+ C& v* f
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 a( t( J/ O6 [7 K% H
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A look at credit markets7 e3 `; e( f' W5 O* A
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 m0 Z2 G5 e" M3 oSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* u$ @# T% c9 [) A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. H: ]1 z! k& f' E+ v' p5 N
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 ^1 @' N) ?2 c8 e- u# z3 g" Z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% u' _0 K9 a# X2 E  h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# H8 S6 Q( V' D1 f, _CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' Y6 d1 p9 q8 d/ W+ [. |8 d( m
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 Q4 L, B2 N, t# I' I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; ]' D# G! j7 G1 Ffinding financing.0 a( O$ a% x$ J+ H6 t6 l) d6 X! N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 F6 q% D4 H& T. {. a' uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& f5 P: u) x5 Y. Y7 @. c' Y+ j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, G( X' Y: v5 b! S+ ?: O: S
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) X2 F, D  E: ^) y8 t! X
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ d( t" Z9 \5 _- m" B0 f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) w$ w7 z* {8 i0 N European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 M' t$ ^! c) Z' B) Z- P
today.+ _! N* n5 o0 g5 B6 x
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 N. t: d: @6 T
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) \1 h: w+ w. `  |" l/ j, v Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# Z9 P- |: A; f, I! y' }
the Greek default.
  Y: y0 `" M3 i1 x4 H( |5 r As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 H- [: f. V+ c. R) u( _' Q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' W, f* @1 O6 C5 d0 j# r2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! ^* N7 x" C4 ?! z. k/ pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( q* e. ^$ j4 M9 ?# c7 o& ^3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  G; \6 A: p& n7 F7 M" \0 t
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years4 ?" h& R, d1 H6 k# B7 C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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% n: I4 X1 v! EBeyond Greece9 e! l. c$ h, w2 y+ ^2 C
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ I3 N3 Z7 A$ c& K; u4 _but that was before Italy.1 X' H5 U; p$ \  ~. p/ o1 ~$ Q% v
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! q/ }. K1 f" A  { It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: z) X' R5 U, {# H6 kItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.- G% F' w- i8 L+ f

2 Z" ^; T1 D( ]; Y1 p! d3 AConclusion
3 U5 ^5 z7 ~" L) B( X/ f: t We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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