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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary! w$ H! M& F# j3 r" k
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 x# X* v) A+ U# K" M6 J+ ?James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, a7 W5 K$ B: W9 A. h0 ^. @, N! [Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks  |- o( t4 S: M4 F) ?3 s: x
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 e! ^) E6 }/ C! w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ t8 b( r! B8 w; k
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% P  q. k6 Q& j% Iadjustments.9 _. U3 A. R$ Y6 X6 j' {  ?
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  V: w5 I) T$ V0 P  U
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ |: B3 j; V, a: u( ^8 X  b7 C$ `+ p Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 t2 b. V% r6 ~/ i* Xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; T; P( U" y7 q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% n; {/ J4 S- U; P3 z: _; tadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! S* W% |( h- V0 n: Y' x& R0 m# w Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: m0 X/ {3 O3 F: U5 B" r8 b" \
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 o; u$ `8 Z$ T/ G4 O Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& H; B+ T* W! h3 ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ X9 u2 P' d5 p6 b1 ]2 \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, U% `3 M3 {/ R7 T! S  }: V" P
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 k8 f4 I/ f/ P) \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 T3 r& @. J, G
impose liquidation values.% }: E. V3 A: n! l/ W3 @3 l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 a2 c5 u2 ^0 x2 M7 DAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ \* `9 E8 I; W; z* ^! X$ O The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 q% Q4 P- o6 Y0 i, t7 |
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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& s% Z% x4 z: s3 B7 R% nA look at credit markets+ N8 K+ D- B& k' G: a
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- j. j3 {+ {8 P% k" \. s/ X
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 p  f3 I: L# G High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- N- k) R1 S/ u6 ?% d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  o, p1 Z5 J! gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- M$ M' [# Y3 |/ Q" E9 q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) O1 U% j) S0 c: S9 c& Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 R& x% Y1 y9 }' D! X8 [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* Z1 L- d" g7 z; ~; d9 } Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* p. ^# U" v% h6 H1 T
finding financing.6 j9 z8 ]% u/ o% ~# \8 X
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, g4 C2 t. x: n/ D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; F* e5 P. N7 A2 P: H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& c2 R! ]' E; b2 t+ mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 ~% n6 x' A5 H+ C$ {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" `7 W/ x! c: ]7 a1 B2 Q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; t" F* W: J! w+ F European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ Z& G' q' w9 c6 i* o
today.
3 H- j) ~5 B& w4 x- F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: h& @( y0 J7 T% y( x) C
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda3 Q0 C8 j! N$ t( Q, ^, S8 Z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 l- m2 |& A6 O! D! }% X' Hthe Greek default.
; a5 }5 v* {' D& V) W As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:3 ]5 {2 u# g  R( G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
; u! Y, V+ a5 @- k6 L9 y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  y' @9 ?( ]$ ^9 J) c( b1 I8 U
debt stabilization, needs government approvals./ n; `6 n* ]8 e) D0 u
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" r2 w* a0 O" B" ~banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ `" X5 B* b* p% l! w7 }
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# u3 }. d9 o( }! ]9 q

- i; Z0 \- v7 P) R: x$ HBeyond Greece# q. R# M2 m. j
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  U+ K2 r- b5 }& R% M  B7 q
but that was before Italy.( P5 B% Z" E3 G5 T* F; ?
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: V1 G- J+ c% \# `: ~# C It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 T8 g% Y7 D6 M9 {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
* x4 U6 ?9 Y4 |% e0 Z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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