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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation% x+ I; _) i: k4 G7 D9 A. o3 I; @
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: {& v5 b, m: E! Y) c# a& a7 ~
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, g; h) P- Z) H$ [. ]
impose liquidation values.
9 V' c: ?( p! F, k6 V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 s F1 z9 j$ r) y- j- A* NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 f+ j* Q8 G# K, A1 P$ [1 S
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# B# p# Z, r# Z. dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" |1 c9 C. d) X; O6 g& M4 CA look at credit markets2 u2 q3 Y" L7 s$ W
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: A5 v4 F! I+ G! V
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 Z# @% c5 h" u) A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* Q6 C/ y {( {5 W: |
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* [0 ?* b! g4 Y+ n. X3 b+ {; {1 v
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 P+ O1 k. ]; R# m# }# J; K. a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) v$ H: }1 i# S# y8 m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 e4 R& {) K$ r6 V6 i& {5 q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 w' r% Z0 E& Y3 }/ J/ A( h( K
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 X$ S8 g3 L* J0 h6 t+ lfinding financing.
* A) b, @8 F! Q# i2 ` Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ B! q/ k6 I. J9 H9 V& ]; ^; m ~, Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( Z" F% N8 n; ~" {" \/ m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ W2 Q+ J& e% ^5 Z6 L& }! [9 Nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 o* E, h4 [ P) p( F3 [9 Xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, V( ? R4 d a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& Z6 l0 t& k4 L4 R+ v9 B+ O! \ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! c) [5 {; ]# [- J" B8 Otoday.
, ]2 z! W- ^! m5 x+ V* ] Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% M/ F, }) {& o/ }emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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