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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
, ~$ l  K2 F  j& X( f" e3 ]: b9 P2 _$ P  D7 m9 d
Market Commentary3 }7 W5 n, E0 G& X$ O8 H
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 Y- M4 W5 L) P' Z8 C1 o
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 X% q3 H7 c1 g5 U. D; V$ y/ \Signature Global Advisors
$ p' X- t, z  O& c" c8 [: I% @+ Q

" P8 x. @9 w( |/ LBackground remarks, ]5 B* ?' s' _" e* G3 \
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 n( M% r% L& ~4 J) z6 o+ B' v* has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) i+ t# T+ t, k+ z# X( q3 H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ ~2 L& c  L) T3 Zadjustments.; ]0 V9 R8 \( s$ i  Q8 d" Z% f
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% b6 N( V' n$ D. esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 O8 b3 v. K+ P* k, W$ F0 X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& o0 T& H' _+ p. C2 h
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- z% f$ p( t0 Q3 f3 S
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 h5 ?% u- c3 {
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 ^" ]9 d2 u5 z# V' w9 I3 v. P2 E
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: j6 r: W* ]- ~quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& ]4 v1 |  o. C6 \
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' s$ l- b4 w7 f8 w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, d; l& E" l4 @0 r1 _7 d( I% F
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 s, u% n. A9 l7 g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# {2 l! M# b3 W" {
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  Q# T5 P6 S1 eimpose liquidation values.
% l: _- c2 \1 g) r% K$ W% |9 U In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( p/ ~+ q* C/ O3 _' z: M# h
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. |; e+ l! @5 C- K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 c% G) p9 h8 }7 Z" ^5 [; \5 Gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
9 n/ |3 @! E) U- | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 b* O2 [" C( m9 d  J
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! E' ^. D. C" k: V
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% W, q! Z, n0 n7 @* Qthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! T" Q( G- K/ u0 D% v
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( c8 ~9 S5 h, w; Raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# X( y' ?; x5 O6 JCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" E6 k2 ]8 o2 ?+ v; _* h. }8 Y; A* g% P) ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 @4 E+ Y4 E" m+ v8 y/ c; A
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 m" N: T7 D. Q5 u& G
finding financing.5 }1 y) {2 H& v$ n* q' w1 q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 {1 _! o3 \( \0 C/ [3 e& e0 F  wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 b2 q# Q1 }# X* g& P
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 M1 L+ F- _/ g  }, K; S; |9 Ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ @+ _/ l1 b0 F+ Y+ c# k* y/ q5 |: zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 v. N; J. Q4 l6 w8 _; f0 R
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% s8 J( |4 d' a- D$ |0 p: u, G% ~ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) a0 ], V9 D; g2 [
today.
% h% ?, [1 g3 m- R; }. y) }& | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 r3 V) N9 s6 w  ^. p; W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" r& N: r3 S3 }- u$ W+ T, \4 a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# r1 M4 A* y  e4 \3 [% `1 u0 |# kthe Greek default.# E2 M. x  N5 _, y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:0 Y3 x- _) x0 x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" T4 |, K/ ^/ e, Y3 p2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 H  w! q8 Y4 _; h. I: T; E
debt stabilization, needs government approvals." w/ s7 x1 o, `$ E( Y6 B6 O
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: A& V1 F& X& S; A3 Z" |) c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# ~& R! Q5 t, c7 m: X) @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ A" D- F) V! F) i

4 k7 s; M) o5 `, y0 z1 t# b6 ]Beyond Greece
: z3 Q. [% ]; P2 c4 B. A! m$ m The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* n8 O! z/ ]/ z  r8 Q" e, H# M" J
but that was before Italy.
2 d. t6 R  j, S, q% k It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! t: j. K  F( r* b  P7 d It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& w* r" `7 `" {% p+ F4 a- MItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* J8 t4 \: D& j- t& W9 M+ S* J

" L, u8 P7 u. u' cConclusion
: y% |. B: h5 A$ a/ t+ D1 U We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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