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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; s9 M9 L+ t- K+ k$ ?& C! L: T) R( ~
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Market Commentary) x) q: D. _& ?8 Z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ j; V( Z( p+ J9 F% FJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& B9 e( [# q0 ^3 d: u, hSignature Global Advisors
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7 b  V' [& e( s8 N# C
Background remarks3 }0 P1 |; d  ]% r$ g) L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 s$ G. k3 A# ]* b/ Q0 k. qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 @! k8 B0 p4 n; H6 c3 m Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; K" S' p8 N/ C) s1 u  T( S: G: madjustments.
% L+ e4 H* o6 j5 F; t  Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! {/ n" J( P+ v* ^* \- s% d
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% B9 v! L: N: n& U/ M Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 d1 y" m: O: c5 Y# |+ `1 B, wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 R+ }6 U* _- Z1 L3 j" k
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; p% |9 t& L0 B9 L" K) W. T
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: G+ ^% f; D. f% l' @$ c; d3 N
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# K9 n1 e, g+ t' wquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! U' _. _- k0 {4 C Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 m( W/ V8 l- ^3 h4 o
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# ?  P2 _. F# F; c1 r
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- ~' |' z% S) Q6 L) @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, T/ o% b8 T- s. X/ D
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% c$ O; G: S8 I* bimpose liquidation values.1 ^7 y$ q+ d7 b: Y; u! D$ R
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 C$ o2 e1 M! {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( z5 y8 O% z/ W: q& k6 |: ~
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 I8 P8 e- d# I2 g# G$ E* Tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 p$ @- k+ i* Q" u

# P, j6 g# O5 ~' f2 P. WA look at credit markets
+ y( P+ F7 ?" C3 E2 K/ j+ V7 ^& _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. x! Q  M: x. b7 O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- c% E  ~# ^, ^5 V2 Y' c) |1 c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: z* B. E! U! g+ R: uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 w+ ^% j% {6 Ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. Z* T( @( L/ ?% V
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  w% f0 q: K4 F4 n; ~( }/ kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ l2 l7 I6 }; s3 U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* l: z% b4 g- J. W0 X5 Y) y; z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" M- Y& T, z& p5 O5 Y* w
finding financing./ H6 V, _) P$ f( }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ M5 B5 V* j- ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.3 J1 v) a# R) x
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- R( K! d6 l4 X# D- I/ C0 wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, s4 ^/ S; K5 |4 ~' c. X0 ]7 o, Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) |6 Y4 t7 s1 f' R# s4 v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 ]+ C6 v3 P1 M$ k+ h* s
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* u- J( i( G9 Z% ztoday.
% W5 }' G6 e7 Z) t1 G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 X: z  |* T7 ^7 kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 m4 y/ R/ I: y. X+ f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, h: R" C; T9 n: I+ g: ~
the Greek default.
6 b2 O+ ]# z' u5 b! T& O As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 G5 T$ Q2 j0 V, W$ @
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, c8 D& T$ w8 n& M& A( X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 M0 E2 R0 [/ Q7 r$ x# a, Fdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 [/ d9 L/ l9 i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 I: h( D1 L9 X3 R& o
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' I' Q  A8 q6 ^# D
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 q, y! V5 Z0 L8 T
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Beyond Greece
, d2 J% d+ `7 u& i/ F, v The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: ?+ ?# k6 _' R) `6 P
but that was before Italy.
+ s8 s. q2 C) |. q: f9 d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 l" I) W; s6 ]3 |" k2 X It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 H8 f7 T% \# Q' z# U6 _* e: j
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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* ^5 G( N$ `- U9 m; j# |Conclusion
" R* a  ]: b% l6 u4 e We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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