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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
" A7 N4 `- v5 u8 V0 I" `% a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& X# _- v3 K, t( _" I1 E* W# L: Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( {* }+ B1 Y# u6 ?$ J
impose liquidation values.' D% t) \3 ^' R3 W" F S& \3 {$ f
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! U6 S( }2 D* T6 K$ q8 }3 B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 C6 i; ]7 g2 g, Q6 v8 t
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 [7 O- s+ c" y5 a% r v- [- `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 Q. ]- R0 W- e* t2 K, E0 E$ S) c, u/ \
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A look at credit markets
( F1 W: y& C1 |% n `1 I Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
U* m6 N9 c: o* S3 f. ^September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. u4 i. m9 u# q) L$ S& S# `9 `+ P High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 @* b4 b. ~% |$ e( W' Cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 L: a" i) ^% S/ B4 U
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 l" Z- Z* G& ~. e8 maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" r" n4 J9 u& T1 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& p% R7 L: b+ r# f% tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% w- m4 p- ~* X$ [( |* m& s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, u- @3 a/ N% b5 h( qfinding financing.
4 X( T2 c" Z5 `5 |! |$ o( E! j Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' C! c2 L: H+ I% Y/ k3 }6 ^% Twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; Y" k b6 U! l: u0 K
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. N, u; K5 T0 W0 T# e
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( ]$ x' S, W t$ y! jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- M/ A$ H' ~; M
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 |: P) S7 w" @" h; D5 Y# ]
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain p: `# ?9 N( s# G
today.2 l9 J7 M* D& v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% v5 B% I+ n5 J; }
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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