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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 A/ W/ B" h$ a* u2 W6 Z; {
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Market Commentary7 \/ [1 p1 J9 H. `2 P2 z8 g6 B- H
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ o( r5 t( p' L  E) n
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 S  M% w/ X. W5 p  F. TSignature Global Advisors. V, y9 I/ x+ w( W1 Q( p$ L& s

2 Q' ?4 Y: m0 l1 D: Z* a
$ ~& N3 C2 \: m: lBackground remarks
* G+ K7 Z) O+ ]6 X Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 {" `0 I* p' F+ \as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
1 l2 s+ X6 q3 d) N, D Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 V3 P- w& P- r% d5 k
adjustments.3 f# k+ o2 \$ @2 O7 c" `
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( _( k. f# ^/ o9 \  w
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  v: Q# ^- A& o9 Y# g! ~ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 D0 o; @. N3 N$ f/ j& \. W
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." |* L+ A/ V3 K1 u. W0 B/ L
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" C" F% H. W/ l+ Z' n
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& N8 X6 G/ f9 j. G
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' a9 {9 C: U2 _" r8 K5 a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  w6 b; M9 _& P4 l0 @4 C6 I7 ?8 m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- X4 h2 F1 U0 ]# V# ^1 f1 j- F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! C; u' K" h7 x, c7 }' J' n0 |reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& Q' B$ \: |3 \9 k8 p8 X1 ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; k  S# {0 ~  Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& K# ~' f* s+ t, ~( o
impose liquidation values.
* j* F. w9 O. Q$ v. L In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" ?' t5 F* O3 e0 k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) p+ d$ ?) i- v* J! K( c
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. C, _. x- K6 y. @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets% s; j; x  Z" m0 t/ l8 J& i
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! F1 b# ?' g& L! V' h$ Q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ o7 @# m6 {" A: w5 x5 r" j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) j7 F2 j& a# u2 c3 `0 @4 S% g- wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. ^. O, `1 s3 t8 Z  ~; g5 [. K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" \7 f2 n( a" Zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' @" e+ q5 R; c9 KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ H6 j3 a% s  J* Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# M9 f6 C6 q4 A% `2 o2 U4 }8 W
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 [6 [1 M5 d( p
finding financing.; Q# L+ o* L# L" i  r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
- I$ x7 Q- J# w" X0 S9 e3 Zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 ^  @; v6 u0 d7 l! ]7 A Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# G) b/ S! v! v+ J# }( I
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 D- m. \$ N" x' Q- Zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ [+ f7 U' _2 O8 @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 c  K3 ?- D, a3 r2 E* z# Y European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( ~8 j7 W7 Q4 |% D  E5 D9 {7 y
today.2 }& C, O6 o' X) p$ Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. s$ t1 B/ Y8 x6 l+ d) ?
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 O4 `8 _) s+ R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* W, \& ]& `! z" B& N
the Greek default., [$ G5 d4 D9 e7 ]$ n
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! F! H( }$ O& B9 D: Y5 J+ }1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 {+ T! B! J+ v/ Y/ R
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) `+ q6 A1 ^) A
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( ], y; P7 Y+ N3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ M2 R: n' r5 h! S3 w7 j1 O9 ~banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; P4 Y* s) B( Y, H* E4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- k; F5 Y* N- n# @9 V' q( ]$ K

& ?( T, L: I( P8 i; yBeyond Greece9 b: w& h7 r' ~# ^. v9 C3 B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: T: }; q, B4 }% s" Tbut that was before Italy.4 T+ a4 j( H/ P
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ t8 V1 F: }7 X" W- D8 Q; \! R
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ F- f) V2 G6 n+ @Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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0 o) Y7 ]% H6 t4 UConclusion
6 e6 N+ Q' _/ H3 {- _# V7 a7 B We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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