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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation6 f( n3 N7 e: R# O* D1 [+ z4 f8 {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 c! @' ?& i$ Q# Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; T0 Q5 n. _' E# L9 {
impose liquidation values., ]1 `0 G1 R3 S3 {0 J- a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& Z; h$ p0 |( r; U3 @August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' O; m8 m L2 c8 L1 D% b The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 Z% c0 B9 Y( ~scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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( [& B* |& Z F: E; \& IA look at credit markets9 ]/ L, N5 N) p0 k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 Z, v5 s5 C* c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 I- B9 _2 `/ ^! U5 z$ {1 Y4 B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' U4 s; |9 m4 ^/ |+ ?( r& z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. q1 n+ N' m* m2 }: l" b ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( B5 w9 R/ l/ ~* X' B0 \: H' h* A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* {3 C1 L5 C# |" S$ R: CCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are p% k- X* \' z" `9 d/ h" J+ y- k. K
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# {) B2 I( A0 J% Q4 T Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 e: E% t8 r2 E0 I% m7 wfinding financing.# Q, @" W' R* ^9 W4 X" I8 F z2 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! J; P, r( v6 ?$ P7 }' c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' J1 R' U9 f* ~5 v: L% \4 I6 k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, I' @% G0 `% E+ Z p; C; y- cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were G5 g* p( ~( i1 e T# z$ B
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 `9 q& l5 n6 Z) @& O' N; F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 @; L3 B+ [2 p- N% J0 K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 S: w7 \ d- |3 k! @6 v5 z
today.
' }4 ]: T1 K* m* X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ i& _ h/ @7 I5 Cemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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