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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" z" A( @& Q) W. b; }6 N- G
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Market Commentary% ]/ F7 g" P$ t. S3 a1 @6 R
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& P+ |# G; E2 F( o9 E& X
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 D1 {/ A" e& o( USignature Global Advisors
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; N* F+ D- \8 e) n6 l% OBackground remarks  W: [- D* C+ O  t2 e& @4 j' W
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  j. Q) [6 R2 I& X) z* [( N3 s" ]
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; }' u) w3 s* @; c# K/ t
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! h4 p; Y- z5 H6 R+ e9 qadjustments.
" u4 {' v+ R3 \4 f1 n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ T7 o6 K9 t7 O' u1 }& ~safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% U. A0 l1 G1 m1 _( s8 q. `6 o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' O6 `- B" g- r# T; I5 N5 f- Q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 O9 ]) L' G6 J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) v7 Y$ j3 K5 F5 J8 K3 k' ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: g) f% u# A4 v
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& h1 }! w' M% u6 d5 O- l2 e" A
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 Z: w* O+ L" _0 } Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- k$ j% K- ^% Z% ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ d8 x& X2 c' g1 s  F9 m2 {: Ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# r* w3 m/ k* I  z7 i" a% L
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ m# B4 W# h1 r5 E
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 i! }0 a8 N5 d( E- j, Oimpose liquidation values.8 n  k4 d! g1 D% e* i: y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ a% c; {- r' B6 L# |- k, m- ~
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! ]8 b7 x" m1 I' o3 j7 A7 j( b2 k3 G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  v5 v7 k: E4 d7 L" Q) lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; U5 e7 k0 h$ A; G0 Y% ~
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A look at credit markets
/ G( x$ I; @. t( N" w* {% m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
! m* g1 D( L/ h! }$ m% L, l+ rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 p! t* n/ L9 e) o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( y9 i, g9 \4 X# z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ w, K, D+ e% B% ~- {. |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* P4 j5 {; g  Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* v7 W) Y- z: p  I3 r& iCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. }8 s/ w; C$ [; p4 qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! i4 Q1 |& s# n' Q' b0 N$ S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" ]$ H$ `, G3 v! Ifinding financing.
4 A+ j, A: d+ f" I( L+ A) _ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 R, B# o" |5 hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 v  d' u) i6 N, A; D Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 P# v7 M& `7 x3 {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" Q/ V6 N1 n# X* O$ cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) ]; i, B. ]. l! `# _
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% T; W0 q5 R" D& h9 I
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 N  Q! u4 r+ S. x
today.' h: u, X- V7 s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 V: \2 g2 f4 g+ p( Z3 a5 G
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 p7 V0 k9 s- p1 c0 k7 l) z' Z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  y. R* h7 L0 Q& @* t' l* v# i
the Greek default.! F1 ?- O; F4 M: f" x. `0 H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- p; o  `  e8 @' r" ?" e7 U1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& S5 s- `- e7 O$ W2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 U6 @- q5 t7 y9 M7 j# P& |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 ?  u5 B. h' o+ {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- u* k' A4 L8 ?1 T' W
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 d- I: K/ l. n1 R% K
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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) z, S! X+ m) R% ~+ nBeyond Greece
; ~1 ?: _" J5 \  N8 S6 l% R The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. V, Z. L% s( H/ `. abut that was before Italy.' t) |* \( B' `: }; ?) W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# r" e7 T4 A' E+ R- ?4 n! o
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) s6 c. ^/ v7 s. w4 @Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion, s+ `3 J8 o! h
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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