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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation& c2 U6 G: B# A( u( G7 t
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. W6 i Y5 a+ w" E( g4 m- Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ A1 r0 a# [0 W- U4 ^" n$ f
impose liquidation values.; V& N6 `8 E5 |$ Y. D
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# Z4 z. V" B% w! W" s% p% X. @August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 Y ~8 x; N* Z, H% p; i/ g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) X' v) ?: ^1 X2 L6 R+ w/ V8 d
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" }9 v3 k2 @" r1 l7 L' T. S% aA look at credit markets
: t1 M- C6 M3 w o7 s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ l0 p8 ^5 y( n* g9 f0 |- YSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 i& N% k5 s h' J, v9 Y4 N
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 g" B V; K1 V# v$ Wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; W7 b( O1 p' g' f o2 t8 D5 L l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ j8 s2 Q: e& Gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 _3 M; b9 @9 |6 [. |. WCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are _) X3 M- `. D" l5 |$ B% Y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
j" ?8 ~' v5 }' |: r8 w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ j3 ^! U8 y1 _9 G1 Y- |
finding financing.' J# h! @! a8 V" D1 A; V$ Z2 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 M4 p9 r1 y5 P& F+ uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 \" G6 z! O% c; |% d3 W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 r! G! S1 r1 C+ wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' s5 |' E) X$ y) ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 g8 {9 Q( v. e, M: L
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 p$ L4 z z- c$ s ~' c. @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. u; O% T0 T2 i0 c8 ^! n$ N
today.0 o7 b3 U* `7 F9 q1 o- Z/ o7 F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: G" j4 c2 T& I! [4 x5 b( y, |9 `emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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