 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation( y( I ~+ }0 x& n9 p* m- W) @
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 ?6 s5 d% Z* Q6 |/ \0 N; H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# J3 J1 D0 K) O' u0 Pimpose liquidation values.6 y5 d" z$ p1 u. ^& X* |9 \$ _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, O; k- B* O7 t# Q1 ]5 C- S3 H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( r. M7 s) \+ ^, G. W7 Q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 M+ b' Q/ ?4 h- z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 b+ Y7 S+ {- W; o, H1 I$ `
; F. [% m5 F; A$ `. M5 o3 f% L" E, n
A look at credit markets
6 V/ o1 Z' T/ q3 { Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, R8 [, _% v# d; Y8 M4 e) X8 s& {) GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 f. o5 ]+ D/ @5 Y; p2 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) ?: N$ p4 G8 r
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* G e/ l" N" g' t" l5 f) a0 C
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 R. A$ k% L+ Q: T, d
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; W& K8 H% F. w$ D0 n& yCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 l" D; l% ?$ Q9 O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( M3 Z, `% ~8 X0 l9 H2 F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- ? V3 i8 T! J) p& T3 U b5 Ofinding financing.7 d% ]& E2 F* m R# ^
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' v- {" k3 S9 f, ^4 E) E- Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. d9 }8 E2 o% T/ n2 W" y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- }9 ]% |$ ]( G, w$ U$ e, |is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" X& {% p7 G$ F. A/ A5 \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
m/ Z; E P8 i3 U5 ]# jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 ]+ i5 n( d- r' [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' C7 {/ n9 j; Y0 T
today.
, U) f. R5 i8 f8 d* {' | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 M! t0 t. t5 r: Q* C) T$ r! ?
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|