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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 S# P$ k) M& m' z7 V& o2 |' JMarket Commentary
4 S* }5 w  O6 o- t( u- lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( I; h# t2 n$ x- R2 pJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, M9 H+ g2 f& f* p; ]Signature Global Advisors0 T( b+ z6 f1 W6 y  S! m
5 c1 S- ~. D- w1 m. }2 m" u( Q
9 t/ n7 H+ {: w  Y! D: K3 ~& ~
Background remarks- v4 z) V8 z& l! R
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 M5 j4 W' t! H7 `
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; {5 Y* U8 l" Q' Q( G% c7 f Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 ^) p7 o% k& t3 M  t% x( Tadjustments.
, E. u5 R7 N2 |7 ~1 z: Q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ o" `2 P5 s2 T9 S7 m2 D) e2 tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 j% |% B' N% `+ {
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 L7 W1 Z) r% `! k5 x- E+ Plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* J$ B5 x8 f" t' ~- ]6 _2 _: D; Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 y$ b2 G' M) d2 W
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- {4 z" ?8 W% P  s
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ J# U8 q4 P2 R- x+ E6 }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' W  r+ A  D( D- D/ t5 K
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 n7 a- Q$ @$ F% x% C$ [5 y/ i Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- u4 n  ]7 ?, }2 jreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 P4 I4 F" }# q) B, b! s
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* _) `& P3 y4 x6 ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 r0 a' r/ q  h4 u4 _$ C
impose liquidation values.7 \3 }, g1 @& e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  ]; _  a% u2 }8 a/ _August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* r) D! d! k6 m( u8 Y2 s0 j  a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 \: N: j# n$ t  Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; M) k, z' ~! w* @3 V

& {( U; w6 R2 T) x9 H+ H* F4 _# tA look at credit markets
; @; `* [5 |# {) v4 ]; m7 X Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: I4 i& h$ a3 F  r1 B  _
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" I" Y% \8 I7 I9 } High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" x* `/ n  ~& c" @+ B& s
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 x- `/ V" E+ V* Y" _7 Y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 l7 p2 p( ?+ c% H, G0 g. Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' n7 a, I6 k$ l# |% pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 v) S& Q! V5 {2 G! ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 M/ Q/ m; _# O/ P* V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble  H1 `5 u0 P  h2 Q% L- J
finding financing.
6 i0 x' D" z; e Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' f$ V& K8 Z5 ^- O/ Vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 `0 @$ O: T" a6 b3 M Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 i- V# X" W" c- xis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- r3 {3 ]4 C4 Q1 E* Z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 }7 {* e7 I% B0 g& f0 i7 [; H  Gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 M0 E# T- ^3 t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 Z6 D4 I/ S6 f+ M  u( u
today.
1 X% F; {. x; T) h/ j2 P$ H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: A" [9 e" e& e# I! Remerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 {( b; k1 r% k" a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ a$ D8 w: B: i4 N( x4 s+ dthe Greek default.  c( F0 W: d0 z4 E: e
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  d. d3 T  G% |6 a6 c9 f* P
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( U4 r5 T; ]% _
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ {. u6 Q) u8 i1 ~0 p
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; `$ ^3 k7 b8 r8 D" j( m5 H& t
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! l: v  V& Z0 ?8 O2 b# `7 M- tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% ^) U: X; i) T
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece% P2 D8 \0 U- ?* l' Y- w% F$ J
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 M+ d3 F7 n( E
but that was before Italy.
+ W) n% C/ ?7 m# R$ _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 j4 m, ?/ k! K; M1 b It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ ~( j7 a& k# w0 n% D! AItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.' k  e' X, w& b' h/ P5 w1 o

- C: X9 L5 s* j  sConclusion
+ B) v& p' z; \7 O9 @  z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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