市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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$ m: k+ h3 C( d3 c# EMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! P$ S: a$ T5 T( T6 s) s. _9 T% bJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' Z) R9 O- {. rSignature Global Advisors
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1 J6 H2 q# a2 r0 h" J# J% nBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 t, i" [/ c) [2 L, O) _! ^ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 X0 x3 q: i" [, h! j: xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) {; o7 T9 k- ~( u: {+ I, wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( D' X% q+ g) Q. w: n  Q% ~ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 j3 O1 ?! W7 h6 n* ^: ?; M7 Wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: x, H7 w6 {. ]4 |5 f# I Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& T8 o. @* ]$ ?" l/ ]/ {& equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 o: l, |' [  o  v0 @- d! c Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) t6 k; S3 t  O' k Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 h% A" y4 v+ u) `impose liquidation values.
5 A6 [& X1 H- V5 {" @1 t+ E In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: J# U+ R. K/ Y& w The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) [) b% l- b9 fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) h: _5 X6 S' W. DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; R6 ]$ J) z1 i5 mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' @6 L$ O4 E' _) V3 Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ q7 p1 `2 w- u6 kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- l9 n5 v, \; ^7 YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 [( z$ J0 s) dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 l) d$ D+ L! I- O2 Q0 e7 }8 A( [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 X1 N  i; t( u' bfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" A# a! J4 }3 W3 }4 k: i Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 m. v0 }  v2 w" \$ w7 {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 h3 k4 j8 o% \' Z( l& {) Z# Dtoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
# u' G9 d/ E" v Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
! e4 v7 h% H  D+ l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ O: M' f  ]# P) t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 t) T* r+ j& P+ Z6 k5 Ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' P/ x" X5 S  B4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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+ r: k$ `4 L, L4 b5 ?Beyond Greece
  T4 i" C3 }8 u! j9 k( z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 O* p- H* S  i3 `; B It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
6 R5 h& t- y) Q: ?0 a We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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