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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。1 J$ ^  T( m& g) Q. J0 c
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Market Commentary" v; `+ Y" e) [4 i( r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
8 T4 l) _$ u0 `8 O4 c5 n  vJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 r+ ^; V- L2 lSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks5 E5 @& o! q! S/ Q( W/ H0 k# n
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 R3 _2 A. ?  {+ ^9 r$ ]
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." @3 {# C2 T6 ~- H; R
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal/ D  j& Q# g7 h" X2 _1 t2 W7 m
adjustments.
, ^2 Y( P; w- Y3 P4 Q- I; w7 Q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% Y) }8 f) O3 B7 \- J
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., `& b( }4 C( N2 q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. K, U/ o0 h6 ], e4 d
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" J( R& P/ D7 ]  o9 x7 M1 P We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; v( H" p& i$ s! x; kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# C2 h0 B1 q% `. _5 _5 p5 C0 w$ |5 h
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 f' k- P7 R  A2 {( h* m6 }8 @7 {: Cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 m/ u& N9 a  ? Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. R! }+ ^. \6 E8 a9 q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 H) z. K; Z; z$ t" N  c$ V
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 U4 R. y4 E7 Q" y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( h1 R' |4 l5 H( ~9 \# Nas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% C2 M5 i7 J+ l2 B' Gimpose liquidation values.
" Y; G  r4 E# q  K/ Y$ T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 O( _! \7 G( L; w4 ^
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 u( w( b7 X+ Q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& a7 p  v! L: [" iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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/ j5 F1 F/ Q. L7 h/ `" ~1 nA look at credit markets) }: E' |( ?5 a' }+ o# l* t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 B. U/ D; {4 ?
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ y/ O. y' g0 l7 X5 f High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 u  s' t1 V+ c, |+ _  W: l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! ^3 @" `2 V5 J6 m1 O$ h2 X
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  D  t$ j  a+ P- Z4 X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 c# L0 d2 t, |  z3 c0 D5 ]( {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 p- `$ A7 A' r& O. O& S- X) q( K' jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; L! ^0 s& P! A/ p# V9 g1 @- h+ I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% Z; h/ w$ _9 dfinding financing.
( j8 `0 @% b  t( K3 W. r, N Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# S, z3 ?- ^, l' A  J& d' m- m' b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  u% S) ~; L& ?% X% H/ ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 g' J- j& M! P# i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% C& \6 L" b8 B7 @( Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- y8 U5 e- m8 E( I1 v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; Z4 M4 K3 T7 e European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) x( K  W* d. H
today.+ P( D8 Y% C, c! L. g6 V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  E: p  K: `# q" k& yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 s. d5 y6 E# d5 V6 ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 r: a& |/ P. j: o! X1 c
the Greek default.! x7 v) F" K1 H  ?9 @# O% p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:+ D$ |/ _2 O6 S. ?7 G) q& e% F
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: u0 L& j" @" a  @, U7 }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign! M! U- h6 J, I: X6 q7 a
debt stabilization, needs government approvals./ p9 u7 R* Q$ M
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% P) d. a& I4 U8 u0 ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) a8 l4 _) y6 S1 G  b4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 X7 w, P# u( r, {

- D: N* z2 h" K) c8 qBeyond Greece) m) A+ p0 J) B7 K
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ k: a/ {! R/ E. qbut that was before Italy.) ~+ k& U* X- r- X6 F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: c; v2 {& t. P8 x
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& a+ n& W" k# I+ p! X9 y; K
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 j# M7 G. `, i( j- q
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Conclusion
6 M/ l4 |0 b* o' V4 f0 ]% j, q: N We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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