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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
4 L/ @# K% m$ [: ZEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 X- U) S/ B/ G  ZJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- R" D+ I' K+ b4 OSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
. f7 Q+ E, i# I( }5 Z. ] Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, ^2 J9 {% h. w- ]( d0 w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! e+ c. m1 W: K
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  L, r! i# D* j5 [/ ]adjustments.
0 C/ v2 o0 z+ F" M; C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* y9 f1 {# A$ G$ H6 Y' Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  {8 g  ]+ s3 e3 Y+ b, }- e Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are" v3 _" m4 ~& F. }& G& J
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) Y; o+ G. D8 A7 S We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ M" q' ?. L0 ~
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 g  k! t6 h8 u+ e6 O
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 Z) e2 Q9 ]/ Z/ O: S
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ T4 F& o4 Y; ^. @! \! m  z! S7 ~
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: L1 O9 C* P8 i& m( x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  E  s* Z( l$ r6 f; _  m
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& G3 [7 q/ h1 @3 H. ^5 R The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ s) v) s% {( X8 U- t) C! f- `6 sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- s, w6 Y- h* W) a4 g& Jimpose liquidation values.
0 j3 _6 E7 z; W9 d' f& n4 T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- `; ^& Z+ O) U6 uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, u1 q8 ~, f* c7 x2 I- ?7 N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& W! j  W  T' h9 S" n7 Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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3 y, t; u5 M* g; \A look at credit markets* e* e0 i9 ]" q2 Y0 `& w* O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 s! M* b0 t- H0 p! s
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  Y& X! I" X* n8 J/ X1 i; ^* F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- G: e- y/ G% L* J% i* Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ d" C' |% K& H: p8 P+ S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 K; s# q* |; F2 |6 p  j
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 @6 F0 g/ W: e$ l9 H* aCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. E2 i; i1 {2 j. {( S  V4 ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 y- @4 \3 P. k( G Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 W$ G$ }$ i- w  f1 Q; X1 ?
finding financing.
* l% l& f$ n- z9 M( U5 j Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. I# {5 t1 T$ U$ h9 |" zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 d' h* m+ w0 c+ n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) }1 y5 p5 z, t% y& P$ j# S. s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) T: \- \4 h+ }3 p* y4 Y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" W+ r- ]( `. C$ ]" L3 K; L
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 `1 I$ k$ q0 a$ E& B$ }. X  D$ L European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, L$ P4 z( H. u4 }today.
; ^& L& u4 I7 q- P, S* H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: q: N& J$ _* q  A" c7 T8 L9 v7 Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
$ _$ A8 B! v- ? Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. f5 y8 b1 P0 w# d8 G" _" u9 h( @the Greek default.  u+ x0 t  x$ B/ m1 Z; q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 R( |5 E2 l+ I9 B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 T  F, i- i  k; f2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 }8 H$ L; ]. t5 L5 i" |debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 f& E! a5 m7 S  L$ _) y
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ e* h% M" `% c5 w6 J  Z3 n
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 h6 R' c; V) R. `4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ H7 m( |. Z, _/ _% J

7 w; q- h. R: fBeyond Greece
8 \. D  c6 ]4 Q5 s* r The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' J% \2 M& w( u6 r3 l6 r4 ~8 p
but that was before Italy./ d4 n; Y& @; }3 O5 P9 ]9 h
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' s" X3 s7 A9 {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the) y* O- g( w" O" A2 A
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 e" O: t/ o  L7 L" x5 v4 X  f
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Conclusion  l" c. G  n7 S
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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