市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
/ G6 \, q. l3 m$ }+ m5 qEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( [4 h4 M% C& U1 jJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
" C8 x$ w# y# A1 U" p, n5 M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: t# H: T/ W' v* xadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: Z* l4 L$ n# O9 Z9 ~safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 `2 \$ u+ {; ^. B. P. k$ Q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 k# b6 a% `8 M: p& w2 L9 h We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* w- M1 n# O& }! [& k' H9 x1 n; a. d Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
* @, P( a6 f+ p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 P1 P, s9 o: I" Zimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- Q. w4 @* M8 [scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
) V! U! Z  f- E  W2 X  _8 w( a Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; X6 u) t- I9 `/ P( xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" ^3 F9 U% D. K  v6 ~+ `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) C4 O" J& i) e- Z8 V, b) y8 g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ e( o; ]5 T9 v! d3 A; K, X& ]8 q4 ifinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: y6 L* V9 j; I* K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: K4 Z3 o( L/ @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 y5 @  ^  C/ c5 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 M0 @& y- p+ V* p European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  r1 {: y+ S8 pemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
- y0 Y+ A8 J. M+ p/ Z2 g+ T/ u( tthe Greek default.
8 b; ~% L4 P2 j% W! U) T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 g3 F, M' b- V' O  x- s1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 \) W: c! x6 G5 ]/ a2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; K. ~5 ?3 c$ Q0 m3 ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 E/ h! K5 G$ d7 R; Y3 m4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
+ i! U3 r4 v0 a5 ^6 [! L1 g3 s6 x The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, |3 x1 P2 @7 K# }but that was before Italy.
: Y! G, h0 S6 l' H9 x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, D9 _  ?4 W$ S5 `7 C6 e4 z- JItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

* n- r: {( `2 w" z% ^/ |+ c# V0 RConclusion
! q' W- K, k0 t  W$ R5 y) F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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