 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation9 P; K1 m8 M: i) s8 u5 a
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 S5 V" ]& w9 r, D6 }3 [% Ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# D9 [1 k( v6 aimpose liquidation values.) O' x7 i0 I U: c3 k; e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' Z. i8 J: K7 t, |% p6 }4 G* \
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. u: p' q, d& p, M6 e2 | The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* S' C2 `2 h% E. Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# _" Z y9 g( T* Y" F( b9 P O
" ]" B* Z, d* v8 y# }! Q
A look at credit markets5 e5 g3 A( K6 w4 m# f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& ?" C( w; |3 kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 k; f# h# w" @( Q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 ~, ?" o1 j3 J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 h$ l$ K$ j3 [4 y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 F/ z- D5 d& i( a9 S9 vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( o; i3 I( @' h2 l8 m. E' q1 p# o* [
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ R% ]) L* ]+ l3 a' u) `/ x
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- e/ k, {2 a4 Z# ~- T/ C) k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* T1 `/ W# f6 v" `
finding financing.2 [$ C. ^* @# W
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 y% W( M: k G0 }" [ mwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ u8 Z: U4 S2 }7 e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! |. H# ?% t% o- ^
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, h" u# p! `" B" }3 ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- z7 Z$ Q5 @( n2 Y) H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 {* P! g* @* E5 Z( Q' R9 S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( G8 X5 C! h( \' X
today.1 c1 J% n7 p0 S) z1 b1 L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 L, H3 t3 V, b
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|