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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
* I! v+ S1 r6 D" eEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% I0 `& w* Z/ x+ h
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager/ ^+ ?3 O/ }* a1 @$ B
Signature Global Advisors9 V% q* e  `0 R% O; g( M) V
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, R* t1 l, r) w1 B$ lBackground remarks
1 _9 \7 d" H" z! S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# n1 {: p# @9 \as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 r% i( Q( P8 a; f7 A5 J; | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  r8 n8 _) y7 Y6 S3 b
adjustments.
" {- d2 K) X, p: H This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 T3 f+ n9 Q3 x9 V8 Y% esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 ?: a3 {4 @  |0 F5 K" M" R Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 \( ]# U2 S& s# o# _) L  I. u% S4 X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; Y, y6 l. S; R) p+ R5 b
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 q8 v& g. ]$ Q: H/ a" R) V0 nadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& g8 c! H+ L% k  x+ U Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' w+ D5 M) J6 h7 G# ]' F) Z" oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; p; t! {1 w* _* a: f+ B& w' J4 I Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ h+ i% X4 L3 [. M2 N+ B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 e  G8 D: J  Q; u1 x0 b* i1 C
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 Q% s$ H! y! L8 ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: K8 @# z7 @; |0 I% n
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& Y% |& O- Z3 V( d/ N$ l( ^
impose liquidation values.) G/ D$ l& V2 T; o% ]+ O/ I. z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( M$ ~+ c- ?% O6 ~& [6 ]+ ^August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 Q/ F. ~1 ~  u4 H' u3 T" L  l The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ f# W8 E% l  G# ?, R) v
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& w0 v5 b( X5 \& G
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A look at credit markets$ L$ x: v* S7 W; _
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 g" o/ u' l- g$ U. r! u, K8 gSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.' B& x8 p# y' t8 M
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. b/ D; ^5 u" [0 }0 q5 h+ ]% Zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. N8 q1 n: E  d0 z3 E' R0 O+ l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! w% m8 m! T( O- I, A1 ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' p2 K* U. C4 @1 y: ZCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# p$ B1 y7 y7 `$ |6 {* Hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% T& D; Y1 ^  K& w: j0 D* F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 ~1 Y/ {0 n, N
finding financing.! K) \1 W& D6 ?2 K9 j- y/ a7 \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. v* ^: h# d5 B7 v1 x4 i7 dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; L0 O  w% A/ U
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 Y1 u0 D4 Y9 M/ Z6 l6 d: v$ z# J6 His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- I& \7 I! I* I- U1 M2 kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ z% k2 w3 o5 _3 a; g; Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% c% C- G0 H5 b' X4 x* l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% J4 @4 V$ e: k/ z' y0 m4 s9 a
today.
, \# A3 z0 W: |0 n9 t. g- ^ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ e" U) {2 w9 ^+ i' t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  H9 m+ ?0 L; F; x( @& e Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% v- W7 W& K7 ^% i9 t
the Greek default.6 [$ x5 Q' Z- o+ G* J
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 E+ x6 e* H8 J1 e2 @/ b& x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( S' Q3 u. I0 O1 h# L8 z4 ^2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# N2 K3 C5 D0 ]4 j( S' K8 k# B* }
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ \8 W# ^$ @) z3 j3 `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 k. A  N  m9 x) }1 a, Y# ]
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* a) J! ?, `4 s/ P$ g; M9 B
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
3 p( o2 ]/ n4 C4 B# W! O. @5 r# s The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ |- z/ j, w  m9 xbut that was before Italy." ]  v( S' W, ?1 i
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ q4 V" m) R6 P1 f) E
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 i- t, X3 E  H, b
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further." n( m/ {0 X  G9 l" s6 O& i
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Conclusion1 ?* e+ |0 M; R" @8 E
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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