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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation( ]; v( r/ u+ w& J$ x3 s1 ^. K; {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: L* n* K0 B) \+ f& s' l
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 r/ H7 h6 e: ^; y6 d+ s; b" Nimpose liquidation values.6 \) s% U, M" X( e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 `( y q3 R; H% u" W, p+ b' {0 f
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: S$ n0 _; a$ \( v+ E* e
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# w+ w' M$ f4 [ Q5 y* A8 M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! X9 ^+ w. j0 l6 G, q/ z+ f/ Y! Y* Y
8 _, N" F, T& ^* d4 h0 v( `9 W+ ~A look at credit markets# `% _. L2 B# z, C7 @" M$ u
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" {: b1 T% u2 }
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 h. a; R0 e5 y y, q# d1 n
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& E, s( B* I& z, o) ?# [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ a) q0 ~1 {7 }, `- [$ Kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) }+ J" |/ L5 c9 O; ^' f) g9 |
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ B5 T8 i# z; J( j% _CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ Q, Z, o2 z8 T6 ~. N6 I( y0 j4 \
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ h4 Q8 F" E8 S$ G" D( e Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) F* ?4 p% [0 D+ P5 C9 I1 Dfinding financing.. j9 ]2 h" d: X2 k& i/ ?$ x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) v0 W8 t* W7 D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; z$ c ?# {- F- `' ^# [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ G, ^5 ?; W2 C6 O% K5 Z) |
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! H" e# ~& P; }# Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. L; v3 c) @$ B9 K6 k; J5 Z: Z$ pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 n/ ]8 s3 F/ ~: \9 ? European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
m* K, ]" n7 Ltoday.3 L: ?, f Y! {, v8 L2 F' I
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 X4 t; [% i& v% r5 bemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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