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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: F) j8 l0 o7 g6 |& Q  I
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Market Commentary
  h0 F$ D* k' N% tEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) A+ m9 o  n! W+ f( {2 B. rJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 C; c  J9 c. J5 n3 }) ?Signature Global Advisors* R) d4 I5 ?9 X& x9 u8 }

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1 l" ?# p1 E7 T# [* k% YBackground remarks$ R- b5 x9 }# n: a
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are* Z- N9 s* _. z) ^! |) b/ [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 N# ^  Z, Q" m7 X: D5 F# L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; H% d. T9 Q2 @adjustments.
- B  _2 u3 `2 e$ G! z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: g# s6 [) ]4 l  t; ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  \; [: @) F4 M# `3 M& C  l5 X9 [5 J Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are4 R; W7 t2 l: G5 }9 |2 o+ f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' [" f) n( d& Y( t$ { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' n+ \* o1 N1 J/ L: ], O' J9 eadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ N9 a* j9 i8 S, O( E Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ c4 }0 H8 p% u# s# M
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 ^/ z1 k# {' y" M* {
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# u  V- P! Z( ~( ~ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! j/ P  ^: {2 G8 s5 h; r# Creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, W% J; _! q& b8 t3 X* c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* o8 |9 s. b! u7 Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) o8 ^0 i8 A8 I
impose liquidation values.. a+ f& N1 {. G1 z8 X$ J* n8 v! P& Z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 [7 W4 {; \* q+ t6 |( YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' W( e! F% U. c) o9 ^/ M, [1 j The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* I2 d1 u' o( i4 w, {scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; M) {4 v! h* y: \
  c4 F5 O" `# M( q
A look at credit markets& y7 e9 v3 q5 W: F: s# q" g. Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, n" a" H$ f8 ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ x( O$ K2 S: L% c( Y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" x/ g' q$ N, w  _0 E6 p2 M; B; kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% v, i$ e7 d9 g9 `  o' O' obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: {4 \$ s. \& k. z/ @6 gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ Y' B, w+ |" H3 @2 B6 b+ X
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 ?7 s4 B: l5 I  G/ gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ A& {) K8 e/ p3 N% q! b+ k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 L8 Z( ]: N# P" c$ ~# [
finding financing.4 g" G) k- \  ?: o6 G$ F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- F6 e% e, v9 D) Y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' I1 V5 x/ t* y* H Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% z* i, r5 K. {# jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 {% ]: K; C* qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 [8 g0 F4 ^2 M5 x
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ E% h8 @% T* ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' Q  y/ K6 U+ c" S/ S& I; J6 I& w
today.
2 j% z( ^4 n4 }! b  A Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 B6 T6 {7 i5 T( T4 R4 Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! w1 e. s3 Y2 v% _! W- G2 }
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! G$ s$ |' p, K0 ?2 f- E- kthe Greek default.5 ?  H4 j4 l+ u' @5 J  O/ _
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. ^+ z- Y8 E1 H. j5 u% x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" N) H6 O6 q7 i6 \6 R7 [
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 ^7 _( _7 P! R: B
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. Q9 U6 F4 M- J- e, k" k% d3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 i, M8 W$ d# P" ^# _
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 @2 F2 j% u! k8 N/ A4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece2 X. U) i9 }7 J) a
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* U; E$ h* m. c' j6 e& |: K0 lbut that was before Italy.; i, s6 e: l. C6 C
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# ?4 D; f, O) E% p It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, w& t' ^6 d! M1 a3 v& vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: |% T$ P9 k) a5 i2 ?
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Conclusion3 p# ~8 j/ v$ G0 c: Y% b
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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