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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
# H/ ^  _: m2 \  P& t
/ h- \" @2 R; a5 P% o, H0 E: ~Market Commentary
) _+ D$ d+ b  F" i1 x. lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& C) Z. |- E( K& Z. \James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* I! e! G# r  T% f, W1 x
Signature Global Advisors
$ ^6 r- p# {, ?- e5 J* l  Z5 Z& R  b2 D# m3 T1 g, }

- R; K5 G# q1 s; F- u9 b& g6 R7 {) DBackground remarks, }: q$ q2 `4 A* ^$ @+ D( O
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, z% {  R! m$ w# u/ Aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.1 p( C* P" D5 q. A+ ~: s5 O4 n+ W' [' k
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 ]! X8 p+ {1 L, L2 u1 ^3 radjustments.$ l5 e1 T$ s6 R: V, h
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
5 r2 Y* M" ]6 _7 k- @0 V, q. Isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) U" C% ^/ R/ E# f, W
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ v/ q, ?, T8 f( \3 X5 |lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! S+ F8 u* `. h9 J+ q8 t& w  D We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 O" ]( U5 h7 I" s% |# O
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: O" ~( M* W! `8 F9 w
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# a- W' V& b4 J# A) D" r
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) I7 l( \/ q5 T2 q Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& H8 R7 \2 r, R Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# N; `& w* h( b% n; C
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 S3 f1 O3 D6 S( k* F! v+ u
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* O. U. S0 x& _0 v- f" M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* y7 O- \( D: ?+ |8 S  timpose liquidation values.
. P5 D5 i- y" e0 a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) _* y% \' b$ b, T; X( I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 D6 m$ y  Z0 g4 K+ U/ ]# s3 C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 B' j% {6 X$ |+ P& Q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' h  |& o) m, A0 H

. s) L; V+ ?0 o! R/ z. u  iA look at credit markets) q8 Y+ y* b3 h& q& O& b+ T% |
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 h4 L) j) l* }+ E+ r4 E  [  K: g; P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% Q. F8 g1 i7 z/ [; p( o' _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 a- _; Y0 B( C  q: s% q7 o
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* u) m; a9 M  D+ S  w  f; D, I
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, e/ T! a0 [' l# d. z- ~( G8 J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ X- M% ^/ y% L+ @# B0 J6 P+ o- `
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) I5 k" G) e( Ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; n, t7 P3 u, n& o- I* o Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; ?9 c: v, W8 C$ z: lfinding financing.% g( u1 q6 J8 F/ K8 T$ e2 N2 k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 b6 f4 S& ^& h  W3 `  rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) M7 \6 Y+ C. x! H: g" |; b
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. G( l( G  R/ R0 Lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, q0 {' |  y' j5 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 C2 |& r; Q! x; E0 K4 H' [4 ]' C
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., M# k2 v# c5 c' F% R) r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' a0 K' u5 H7 j" _. |) n+ [
today.5 }2 G9 ^3 q/ r1 G/ f2 }$ u
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" |. O% W/ o6 y" x" ?emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  [% R  C. F7 t( V$ [
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; a% q( f& ]- j& G7 A4 Zthe Greek default.5 g$ a& J& z) E( s
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 G1 {2 _! ]2 S" f, T& ~8 h
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default* I7 k' E$ M! a0 W
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ W- O6 a1 c8 ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: [8 T- I- b' o/ O7 @
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ Q5 R# ^) H, i$ x5 j4 L* r
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  c; \% ]+ i7 ^. Z7 v; @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* _2 G' A" v4 r% T

8 N9 t* g4 l, a9 h; KBeyond Greece, c4 t: l3 ?; c5 r8 C
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. p* V+ m& y" M& U1 p4 S# bbut that was before Italy.5 c  T: r: D, u& \" C' F8 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- ~- @- ]8 ]* v6 G: C* V9 o
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  r  U; U- ~1 p1 [9 l; m8 dItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 q9 c" E; T2 S4 t' p4 q

8 N) U% |$ Q: z- U8 u0 O: {Conclusion
' T. o* C7 h) {  H We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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