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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
- V+ }. `0 N: f# GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: m% N6 o" N0 n6 P# _' B
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, X) O% r6 `' F" E
Signature Global Advisors
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1 ~' q: x: r% O; _7 K; n  K3 {Background remarks
" p( m+ k% k. W6 Y$ m9 \9 y  Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ a3 d9 W( I. V$ A/ Kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! [0 U* }, h4 \, C4 B$ M
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 `' s6 c' z6 Z2 P, E/ j- Vadjustments.
+ E, ?. Y1 d" j$ A" S! J This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 i: \9 E# i+ Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 B$ C8 q. w1 ~! s" |, b  N Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. z1 n0 ^' U4 `, t; Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) b2 Z& W! R, v1 j2 t* n; l* @ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  v9 `6 M/ @. A3 x$ ^; y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
- j+ Q7 }. v& B Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 f0 W2 T7 W/ R8 J  _; j& L# i. L
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
/ k( e5 }: E1 Z3 l. Q5 S) R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 w# z8 K; p4 G$ j6 T$ z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, q  U. B5 I  P) c( l' X, X- C4 X* ^reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) ?& t8 D4 l' {1 S2 s6 J9 S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 E! z- H. p& y5 {4 p, O! mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ Q# y* S. B. q4 Y" |8 D' H$ [) I
impose liquidation values.
9 \& g1 j7 Q% ~' x( K6 u+ k7 C7 m9 C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 I% z& r+ g$ ^1 k8 XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) T7 g* D$ E$ X# j, s
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% u8 a) A6 E( u% Q5 Gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ x5 V5 B* J6 T; {# T4 p1 J8 F2 R( \

5 L- G! F9 L2 a  T! s0 x$ g3 jA look at credit markets
- p/ \6 X' |* }8 m( g+ \; J Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- e2 h6 ]3 d$ s7 Z: @; j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 u; Y8 r1 @! `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. l) p3 J; o. Q0 _
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 u) k0 a# ]: A" i5 [billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 l' \! G! z% v7 uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# I9 S& s2 l+ ?CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 R" s" g) t$ f( [) B7 E6 O8 `! K4 b3 J
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 i8 l6 G" p( u$ r, b# N! Z) G Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ R: O; J) N/ R% ~) q9 M4 {- Pfinding financing.% [5 \- i- ^9 n5 U7 \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ L& n# f$ ~/ d. J7 O" a7 iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ f8 C* c# \  _+ I3 Q$ A# J7 S Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; h: U/ a% O! i$ {0 S3 ]( ]is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 [% a1 H' A+ ]' a& Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) F2 a1 j) C% v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 a% S- I+ X8 O' c
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 p, Q% y3 C( a; d9 c4 stoday.
) ^9 w7 N. f+ Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ v2 h* ^: u  M, w( E' `8 x
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda2 P9 J5 h/ I  Q; i4 u+ f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 E, |: l: ~% I: F8 s8 n" o9 m
the Greek default.* c6 {) p1 b9 r5 L' I
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& h. n4 f: X- A. w& u/ P+ u1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- S7 Q$ p4 b3 n. i6 _+ {. H" i2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" A" U4 V- y4 o8 J+ I) edebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ P9 x3 ]7 h5 g1 }3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: A: G- p2 }8 c; T4 P0 N4 J$ U
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, G& i% l$ {" C1 T! b( F# r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ ^% M/ c3 P7 x" }8 i) x
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Beyond Greece8 g7 ], Y. }. o+ Z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 H* ~! x( ?4 y& C% }% f  _0 \
but that was before Italy.+ v6 y8 U8 h4 i) E  t
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* S) y8 C. ?" g5 {% r: Z. r. _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the2 W  Q1 _# q& g
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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/ {) ^& `$ i. l: cConclusion
8 }0 m# p! b- D% p  S+ S: L6 P We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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