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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& _1 v% ]/ `9 w% J( q8 H

, K" x, y! K! tMarket Commentary; S# `3 K* r) p
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 r: X! t9 `9 y& m8 `' m  f/ z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 H. P  g6 W& B4 E
Signature Global Advisors- E1 U5 X2 q9 Y

. \! S" i% ^3 f. m# ?$ X
) q# w- i/ c/ k. U- S2 JBackground remarks2 M3 c( A& k% c2 A* f; L$ V
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ J! n7 z8 l+ ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 T/ z7 w& s: c8 j: n7 r
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* l- R* @# d7 K5 ?2 }3 l$ dadjustments.: \: Q4 q* Y5 t" U4 A) |, K$ Q- V
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: S  R; w) D/ @1 A
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ ~& ^/ E" }8 u0 s Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 N5 h( M/ E4 u3 g  T0 v% q" ~8 ]lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ p/ d4 [0 ]. o- F We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 |% I' `1 R% t! A* Q" F8 Y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) \! v7 V2 F/ A Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! G" a# N2 h5 [# R7 G& \! Uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 A' \7 ]. S, b5 f8 r7 R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.5 N2 ?0 P9 c; t! V
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. `+ [7 Y+ w6 U
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: f& u+ R& l" Q% a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' t% y7 A( E; |; R( ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' i7 ^* z4 j, |- Ximpose liquidation values.' e4 R$ ?# X4 @8 W0 d
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& _" z. P# w$ U/ H0 R# ^6 J
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 `' z9 ^1 G8 |2 ~0 X1 |3 V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  U$ K9 U6 h0 y" A0 \  x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
, {0 G7 ]5 ]9 T% b) q8 B
# w* H! p: H0 aA look at credit markets
3 m& j& H4 Z2 F2 c, H# ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
! I& k# V% {6 {; s+ a& @September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; @7 G# G$ g( q# Y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ ~4 R" w3 P! y3 F  O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! W; V9 X$ d. B5 e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& T: y6 Q) A& xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 o! H4 H2 d% G) v9 l9 L; DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% W$ E7 W9 c% G! C5 B) zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. g" A4 f# ~2 Q' d, B# H Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ Q0 }% B% ?. @. h+ j0 e% F9 `
finding financing.
. F3 `, q' a9 W1 G, t( N$ p: ` Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 s# g9 S- j# n5 w8 K- O! G. L
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 ], j$ V- T6 r1 X5 s4 E" Q. f2 K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* n, R+ m, }. T, g* m! {
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* `( f2 P- w4 B
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) a  {4 H" l$ c' e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: S7 ]1 G' W  A9 {* q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 g! R! ?0 }6 n5 F1 Q. ?today.
8 z2 x. w. C; Y, i Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 {  J1 ?2 e3 |/ U! m8 uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- }1 K; d4 I$ ]# X! d
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- `2 I% C" Y3 o- Z3 @- t
the Greek default.
7 F2 g4 J2 }& v3 P$ x As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 h/ I! S2 ]% I' S2 T5 N& {0 g5 s1 E1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: O, g' o; @/ ~' H8 D2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: r* e0 j0 i; G0 P7 d1 T. Ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% n' U: X5 ]; {. C4 H& G9 o3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 X0 H0 D! U5 b5 K, d
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( w+ L4 Z- A; Q- u4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' X3 h- f3 t# N# M

( c% z5 P: i: I7 m- E1 f' _  E( g6 B( FBeyond Greece0 ]8 g1 y# N* {) S! a2 c  c
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  L- ~6 Y1 |3 b' n4 b
but that was before Italy.$ c( h0 U3 R0 Y# G8 ~9 r* Z( y3 J
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. ?- i. `! A4 ^  {2 b. i! C( O. C
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 Z2 ]* R$ N  E9 ^) n8 t/ h: ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 r0 j* z! j3 o

/ K2 l2 r$ n' L5 k7 r' H+ RConclusion
! V  i8 X& {9 L: F: E We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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