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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  J* H0 T! Z2 P: O2 j1 F6 ^* B2 L

* w& b5 l* K- x$ E4 Y4 gMarket Commentary
, @3 r. h6 h" ]: Z3 B0 tEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 T9 J1 [6 A  i
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ k6 z- }* j8 s2 D& ~
Signature Global Advisors
$ W( N& V9 l. A( L' ]! _+ j8 m! m3 T* w, H
( Y7 w/ X/ e: `8 k& j/ U8 v
Background remarks
5 s8 c7 Z4 I5 {1 q: M% X. { Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
- A5 Q/ s2 q8 V" s" @' x) w9 }0 aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 M( E/ k- }* ^& @; M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 E. t- Y+ P1 W# X
adjustments.
4 n  c: I7 t2 \! Q$ o; ]+ i5 b This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! L: t! U) ]0 X/ {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ y- o$ o0 `1 s# C! A# d Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 n) H/ b* F. A
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 i2 \: L: Y% i We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 [5 P9 [& h, B) |0 h  H( ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% o4 U- c3 S: e( N3 ]
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 a( |8 z" E. a' g, U+ Y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( ]$ I+ ~. r0 N  D) } Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 @: h' Q8 l5 d! V6 F; w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( L' @8 ?3 F. B3 E) q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% q- n" R* K5 g$ k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- b+ M- h# w4 vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ D) |  I  r! B3 n4 \impose liquidation values.
9 G1 W, ?4 n/ V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 e$ u* M* h, U. P7 g! }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 H- S% I; P5 D3 e' M
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* q  c% f+ M! R! g% d) x4 s; Q* g# Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 O+ a0 V5 r' F* k, S+ g9 V% U
$ k& Y5 c6 G+ l4 N& z: v4 r
A look at credit markets, ?' ^5 L. ]2 r3 I# v) l+ d
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  ~3 g5 L3 r8 ^4 t2 |- nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; F' l8 q$ N  T! ^7 k6 n  v High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& n  g5 E7 O5 K9 V, Q% E4 H  sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; \0 f! W# h1 g! V7 h4 Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) F1 t4 a# R/ l) G8 {2 N, F. {access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: j. k8 ]4 e" Y: H) C7 `( J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 b& V! ]; w& {. t* q5 Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! |' C8 m9 P5 S' A; q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 A+ N0 c2 {3 x0 O
finding financing.% G; L, @7 B9 B. F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% w6 o6 ^2 `6 |9 q1 r: k& ?& x7 k; D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 _! j- i2 x% G8 t" e$ F: Z* C' w, k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; _- j8 I9 v" P, ^9 E1 H# i' H3 @+ H  Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ A: g% n- i7 a  G6 Z6 k* sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# m) h% P2 b/ }
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. z/ i9 |( g+ y' b0 K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 s2 K# L) R7 H& Q
today.3 U1 R! o& m, d8 m: R
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* k7 _, i) d0 n3 Oemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& L! h% X1 e7 U6 g& k3 a' _0 T Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* x! [9 ]7 g+ K9 p* L: W
the Greek default.
  u2 N+ ~0 Z8 w9 Z2 z3 ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, }; t4 P- ?0 M1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ [" E' |; {7 [1 o0 G2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; y  r( j1 S% A0 C- a3 Ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 I/ P; d" q, f& K+ ]: I- g3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 U3 I* \0 W& a; u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 W, A/ b) l7 [6 v! T4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.9 ?1 C) s- m! G2 {: c* k, M( Y

! c& h6 _# f1 x' _7 e# z' YBeyond Greece
; a; K7 E3 L. X$ M: n, Z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# E0 P4 u8 t' k8 O+ h! g* e
but that was before Italy.
! m$ @6 h* t- u3 W1 V, D It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 J7 @2 f/ V, v; Z2 E; a It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the6 \2 p: {# o9 K) h
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 k6 Y; k# q, u+ X9 B

: ^! {- B+ m# r$ lConclusion! l6 B( A2 N  I
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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