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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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; q+ ^8 S8 r; }, l  vMarket Commentary2 a9 l6 Z3 |2 J; Q' x: ?1 O
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 n. J- ]9 Z5 F/ D' vJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) t  W" j: ?. b% Y* U
Signature Global Advisors, g7 L' V8 h, V$ |; t: i

* j+ j6 e0 n+ e9 p$ D% F. ]# t4 w- s4 h  q+ H
Background remarks% j; H# X  r6 x% C& l% J* J
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) x% B# x  Q8 i& |& N  z7 Y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 G9 @/ Y  ]0 @% m" e) |; N! J, }
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- x4 g# J9 y# p! _& gadjustments.
- Y* |6 {6 L7 u: C! F This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 Y/ B" Q+ A5 E& M+ \3 ~8 Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." r, F% T2 v0 k0 |/ }% r# q4 D" f
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) Z# H# @+ G. X# x: p
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 e) l+ y5 J2 s We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- @. E  M8 B# r2 Yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& V( D" H  n* B1 N" I, W1 S3 `1 G! w Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 R3 t( |5 V/ r7 u
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 A0 M5 I; R+ W5 T0 @ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- k+ L  G2 Z$ m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) ?) Y" ?' A, `
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 {. `8 C1 L% K. {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* C, V; _$ B/ x& }0 A
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 k' O6 u8 S% {# simpose liquidation values.* [+ S3 z9 q# o. A2 x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* z' ?* d" b# l, Z8 }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& N  A9 e, K0 S- v# {2 w The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. w/ n2 w/ V) R( t5 J' Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; ^  M+ e2 A8 C4 V% G4 D
& k' G$ R, H3 E8 q1 F. m5 LA look at credit markets# l7 K. l/ S4 t9 p4 K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. _6 p7 E* S* ^6 K/ p# [
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 B% U! X9 M2 ~# x6 C1 w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 P8 }3 F- r: z- xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* Z/ _. p  B% d8 H: M/ E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# [+ H% S% V- saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: \: t3 u. Q/ l4 m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 O' E  G- F5 V9 [& m9 S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  W. H! p& l$ F1 e% V$ B% g2 \ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& w$ S2 F6 G( Z( _' V6 j5 [finding financing.! b( S! y7 s: z1 }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. `6 ]9 m) @& A7 e* O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 ?: d6 Q. S5 i5 k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ _& G% Y4 m$ w- ~$ g0 w9 [
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* w' A, h6 k' o6 p( @4 vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. e/ Y( @6 S  \/ G; K- s& _6 vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 R7 C2 C. {/ @& X& W European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  h: @. J" ^" j2 i) D% q& htoday.$ \9 m. ^! x' J/ v/ k
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: Z, W) |  ]$ _! W- \8 V& d  A, Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. _& b9 u( R- `5 Q! } Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 u+ j# ]: g" G  Wthe Greek default.
/ t/ _& o9 S* w# R" F. d As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) l8 l8 I0 s* E' l: u3 j1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ R8 x9 @* o: i; `
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' u/ W" R1 Y7 F& P+ Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 h' k. Z8 f3 r( |2 Q* j# F
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) S6 f& _. b$ p) y! @& m1 B8 cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. H7 \+ ~, d5 w
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' x0 {2 o4 J& g/ t3 P
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Beyond Greece  B1 \' F) R6 r+ q, R# }# f
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
5 A  E# D  r& u/ [: P! B8 ubut that was before Italy.7 z, [/ Y- `2 R( |1 U8 E; c2 q6 \
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- g- q: e% A5 @; G
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; Y& b4 A5 `2 }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 a" f7 a0 l( C

) `2 e% [3 N6 m0 d) F2 K" \Conclusion8 N$ M, d; A# k$ b, N1 N
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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