市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors


Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
& z$ s% D* u, P$ U This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; n" |: \  |; k, ?' t) N2 `) P/ esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ _" y' H- a1 x! e  ~. ]1 Y- r Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* m2 `% K  }% R9 o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' Y$ j7 o9 M, F4 t* ]$ Z: l' c( jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% i1 S0 i' T* X2 L5 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: G! F6 W1 @/ G  |- a. [quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 {/ h4 `$ A& j1 C, f Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 E1 A  j  B" |- n7 M9 k, B% w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
( i2 L/ E9 L) z/ v: E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 F; _& `* {' ~impose liquidation values.
4 d9 v( w+ F4 _) z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: I4 B# f% B* u: Y8 j The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) J3 D7 _) M. lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- M7 Y( v/ \& w; }* I) @  u Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# G# {( x3 b9 x1 F/ rgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 E# r: m1 G& v; o1 I5 x, M3 obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
6 _9 R: t1 D; W4 o8 N; Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ T+ T' X3 ~, I: Q. aemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
' F4 S, D/ D  B8 ]8 W Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 T& m6 [7 y/ A$ b" z$ r- Z% K; mthe Greek default.
2 ~9 ^) x* ^2 B0 A" o: H As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- g: X2 t  F, D) h/ e0 a# J1 Ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) N0 R8 K( @9 y# v) k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

& F. e2 n7 u. fBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
- E! j" G7 a" A8 p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

7 |: G8 i2 q3 K2 \, j8 L# m% y2 O( RConclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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