市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
& ?& f: m" K* ]" _8 ^% b4 `
Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
  a/ D7 O3 J, U# r6 E
2 R) C- X! C) ?& u. G
Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
' ]* {2 ~9 W4 ]: [3 h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ Q( n; p, x3 N7 U* v We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) `# o) ~4 V* k; L: Z; ^+ | Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- e# x+ Z- G8 freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; v" ~: J2 v% @( \, \impose liquidation values.
6 r% Z- q2 F" z2 G$ `, G; V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, F0 ?0 _: T) i, q) F0 VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 l- L- v7 r- y, [0 a' A# {: s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 d/ M0 ]% k+ _" bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
2 I( c/ ^+ d$ _$ w2 |" N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ W% ]7 S3 ?/ F* _- S7 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 c2 q5 @, g. \CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
0 ?1 t+ K4 J8 @, e Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# e2 z! T: z  x" p* o) {were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 _" q# z3 B  }. s- x% s; ]! Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ o. g. r# k3 O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 Y: N# y2 X7 w% [6 {& ttoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
4 @. J, U+ A2 s' W0 X Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 j, d; B; Y* t  Fdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 X6 `% T3 ~0 }# w% Y9 z$ R3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  [' |% w/ A3 `6 }7 n9 ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' \) X! b1 [( d4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
  C$ k6 p6 @3 B/ ]$ r
3 \1 |; w* _$ EBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
5 e- ?/ S: m" P& Cbut that was before Italy.
& U& I$ e, T% r5 h1 J' | It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 K# o5 X+ H- E% u/ S8 v. tItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

; h3 l9 G& v5 y& |: w$ bConclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan