埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3327|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
, a, n7 _3 ^# L0 G; `! i! F1 O+ g) e! \
Market Commentary
4 F7 v. W( C( a4 d: V" l$ XEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer. }6 Z( U9 W9 o" ^8 F  i
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 b' ^) L- R. l1 P& ^; v$ Y9 d
Signature Global Advisors
; P3 F! J. {4 \  K! L. v
4 t6 ^( r+ K( D$ s( e$ Y1 s: [' Z1 _. u1 U( B' \
Background remarks
' M: H2 V% L( c Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 I$ c$ ^$ \8 m! z( \; q( Fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; _! }% x' R4 }5 R8 K7 ~8 ?# z$ U Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ S: P. a0 {; ^/ n; j! K* s4 H7 m0 eadjustments.! e- p4 r8 f& ~5 U& L7 b
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, q/ p6 j! }4 f% C+ D
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 ]; Q: M1 h* q; d' \& j$ i5 c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ p9 E# H* e& g( e3 y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. u( P$ x0 u& c+ w* i, k1 M! ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, Y7 w* Y) Y+ S& b" i& |: |- U, N4 z- kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 [& [4 \" u4 i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. a9 N( C# a4 r: L& dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 {; s- E1 j7 z, y7 ~+ ~& u2 R: r
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 C+ R) v% l2 D' e* J9 E Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( x3 E* I; m, l9 \! ]: `reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) F3 p4 e- A) b3 d' D4 |4 y3 Z$ n0 A The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 R) }7 U) _1 J1 ~  `& B: k9 Was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 f& S7 ?+ L5 @5 j
impose liquidation values.
& q( r7 E- V/ }- y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ o% w2 W* @3 \- @
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% F( ~7 M7 _) Z/ I7 J% v+ r6 w' f- e2 T
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- J% f, P# z3 w0 Q: s# Escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 a3 ^1 n0 A" S) C+ m0 X
0 `8 g/ P; [  S4 U' b8 s/ Y9 ^
A look at credit markets
5 h4 x) ^3 V6 g6 K  i1 ^ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ h8 [. s  h* ]: `# m1 c9 G2 xSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- V9 }+ |* K) m- b% s. b+ ^4 I4 F  q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' R3 d  R) W# N& p" U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& x3 h% _) X9 `6 P6 Qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( u' u, b/ t8 r8 h$ G
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 O- H# E1 G8 @9 [
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 k" H* n9 Z* T3 q' L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 B6 g4 {0 Y+ x2 u7 X' \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 i+ }  s3 g. I" D$ s
finding financing.
2 @# b- D3 I9 L Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! X* S- }8 w" ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. H! v9 ~8 S# F8 D8 D, E Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% ]2 {8 E. r" f: z8 R$ Qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ }  s0 D( a5 Q+ q1 r' ]
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 T, A1 P- e  t8 q2 c0 ~& V5 a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 G7 r' C( L0 }8 X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- C/ v9 }6 J6 ^) M" L7 [4 R% X
today./ f! @# r# Z9 ^: W, o+ Q1 i
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 q( k9 L2 C* L1 D" V6 Jemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& A7 O$ p$ j5 V0 @) h5 \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 F, k* d6 r' \6 v
the Greek default.% s6 F5 [" @' C2 Z6 i8 r) T
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' [% t  @8 B) r2 k# n" V# @1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 `) N, W0 z9 ^9 G7 Q
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ p, J3 j. {+ O7 Z  idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. |& L* _# C" D3 w3 c, F6 b$ ?  W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# \' Q2 s9 B9 k. @+ V/ m  s, r7 ]
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) W$ Y0 J# D% f! a+ t! Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
  V+ r4 D- t2 M2 R+ l; r: e5 m# l' I
# G& g, G" K0 r8 ?% EBeyond Greece
% |& G# O3 m" }! r The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 V- ]; ]  Z' l8 d
but that was before Italy.
' ?) d# \3 b- G( A/ P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# I8 E; E# K! I; K; s$ s
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ Z. f; u; t" X) L
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
3 G) {6 x& I# j2 J: E3 N
  H+ b! X& S$ ]0 w9 N+ NConclusion/ W8 n7 U+ P; Q3 Z" _
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-23 14:02 , Processed in 0.201804 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表