市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% P: r/ U6 D: cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& p! g; @$ A7 S2 O' h6 oSignature Global Advisors
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. U! y5 t: v. `Background remarks
2 K+ X! P, c' j: o8 a' L, D Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 A6 P* y' m5 F. A4 [& Tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 W* p9 |2 y" p1 qadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: v9 r! b. Z5 g# K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( i- ]+ z# J, ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" G  P* \8 h! |8 d  s Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
7 E" a% [2 d. V7 R0 _4 a& Z' S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) @$ B& w3 w& s" F8 nas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
, ]: ?2 j4 H, g. {5 P Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, }) Y3 g* L5 b3 ~2 m5 O5 GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ _3 p' `3 S! }then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 _, \  ?6 y; g6 Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  v4 s- ?$ k8 L& B! b. V3 |' C" O2 ]6 V Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; u' Z1 n( j" Y2 y8 V/ }- V/ Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% ?4 u, B! [0 ^1 n2 O, Q/ v- D* eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! b6 A% M- ^3 B4 Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
1 O# M  @( D+ k$ V$ S Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) n" j4 @+ S/ O( P- ?1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( @; ~9 M: D2 V2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; E. }# A; ]0 zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
4 x: }6 _' M5 w0 V: n: L, ?banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: Z  a+ C* G2 C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
) l0 ]& K. g$ G3 {3 F) e The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
# ^: ^7 m1 F) X4 l, ^% [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
& w; m/ }9 D; A It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
" t6 c4 J: P" o* K We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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