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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 E0 @( P/ ?; F" Y6 x
8 Y8 q8 u2 X. IMarket Commentary
4 a+ ^. i1 F2 n* e/ Z' ]Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& L9 C- e/ |/ Z! B8 K7 SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- m2 _# W1 b: [  h
Signature Global Advisors
1 J# w7 O, g# G7 y& g1 Y1 \- f/ h% ~2 M' Z/ c/ `9 L* ]  O) X

- [+ Z: q0 w" i6 z1 E7 e/ FBackground remarks
4 f8 F/ V3 u( y2 v Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 t! S* b4 e5 [/ `" _0 Z! ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 n8 P/ m, @, Z0 B& T; r+ z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 ~+ N3 `* m) s" T  N1 s8 ~
adjustments.1 h: Y# K4 v; q* L% \
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" Y! ^$ i2 I3 o& i, \2 K$ |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 k$ r, g5 @: g# W; h7 J! O0 E Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  k: ^% A0 F$ v, u5 ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) p0 O! O! ~. n0 e# H
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 y9 G, Z; D. Oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 |; O: ~/ Z$ X4 \/ l- J
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" T- f( k5 U3 U% @2 y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- K3 {; j' V( V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# Y1 I3 Y; u& c9 l; r- [
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have" H8 ^" o/ j$ p; g/ x: o4 K
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, G1 [, M% U, g7 Q- K6 ^
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, T' o1 N0 O4 Mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. x- q: ?! k- H7 C3 s2 T7 l
impose liquidation values.
) K$ f! P* C  O# p1 D+ v, N) l In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: f% E% I8 ?6 c/ |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) c& O* E( M/ u, ^9 p& v The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& u9 k2 R* m& d( `6 \, o
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 K* i7 _" g; C% ]& ~" S  _
  G0 ^% e" K7 d  zA look at credit markets
4 R8 [. l5 G" F! ^% G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' i* }4 i4 p' J+ o5 \8 d
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) n6 ~' k; q) I8 r1 g High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: j% d3 M% a) f) k1 Kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' i) D; v) r( y9 Z+ q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( `( M0 o9 j3 b! a; E- Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' Q  o# n' V/ F% x. ]6 U8 y& nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, D/ Q( ]7 e& g' G/ P/ F
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) w% g/ l0 q% O4 N6 J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! w7 e! V# F4 J3 Z  z
finding financing.& B/ p" f1 J) I9 Z) ?" x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* ]# n: z% S2 I
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 W9 i5 d) ^  k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' y& _7 J' ~7 m2 Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( ^  ?% r" o. w9 J* g& I8 U
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 g. V. `( v& I; F2 q! |( D+ K, S5 a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) ^* L* w+ E( a* i! S$ h7 w1 A European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 ?4 z7 A. J8 P1 @# mtoday.. E6 l8 n" [- _$ ?1 |
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. G9 p0 A5 m. femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* X5 f. [% n4 W& j Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: }) Z' \7 f4 `, i8 T% A# c0 \the Greek default.: o6 I9 ~6 l6 ]% U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:0 J# W6 e& w/ E( U
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 j( g" y* H! X; a
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. h( k! h  ~- L0 d. b) `: f& Q& bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& W) z5 v* D+ ]( x1 Z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 J! K! [- T! }8 k$ f2 t6 ]banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years3 e5 T( _* I* v$ i% X5 C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
$ P: b$ J$ v2 Y" ?1 W8 Y% k" {) |% y$ F# U1 W, ^% g7 j
Beyond Greece7 U; g8 t/ O7 m3 i
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 w7 H1 ?" x: k0 R; f$ ?
but that was before Italy.5 f( @8 W: m* d
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# E, Z8 O  q; g0 R2 v
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* i8 A: Z& d* a; N7 M0 `
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& `# y' u: c0 u+ H0 x$ r5 H' B; }

" x1 l( \  p* H" V; {# GConclusion! ~: z/ M0 {  ?- e$ X% a* r
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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