市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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- }6 ^3 `1 g! t# }$ J4 x; VMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

6 H  j! ^% K: @2 X* Z1 J. S
Background remarks
6 `* M2 a9 D& j: X% ~$ J Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 W- M1 u  b* z% F$ Ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) g" n& F# G7 Q3 g/ ?3 i" G! klessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ o& g; }( x3 U/ ^9 ?quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" q( y9 P& w% T$ p$ ]reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! D4 J# T  H2 p: ^as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
2 @) O$ E. ?7 r$ u5 x, M: z1 ? In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) |! I& I3 a! l$ W5 n* x: v" kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

% \& h0 P! h+ kA look at credit markets
0 H3 Q4 S5 a; S1 w  j) C2 t) P% B# \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ j  r4 ^6 K- w( b' F9 G1 CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" z6 f2 U) B2 o: N( W: c- \0 cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 ^' p4 X: t- M1 [' ~  k% `% [4 K% vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) d) H- S) g  A2 u Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& V' |& r$ P7 v& g% I( ^7 _' A$ efinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 n! E+ z  q$ J7 R! A( x+ r3 ~is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, M6 p  s: i. s) C# K6 _0 o, dbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 c4 _% {! P( u9 F  L( e8 ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 t3 B) E" Q+ W- l4 m2 J! Q- xtoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. E5 `( q8 l- ?( z$ d5 x' Eemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
& R# B) z" L$ ~ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" ~1 j* K- s; i5 r# A2 z5 A4 Qthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* T% O0 F' ?5 rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 W5 T) n9 v8 E$ I: ~, T/ ?3 D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

' _/ \6 h6 f/ \. |1 DBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 e' ?- _! ~- d9 s! |+ y1 k/ [2 mbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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