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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, v7 X* w5 x) S% Y. Y
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Market Commentary
! k- A  Q, d7 M  o. ~/ a2 G' \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ H( C7 L* o4 k1 sJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ S# h: I% W4 [+ m3 ]9 P# h3 d
Signature Global Advisors* Q$ Z% r0 B, I  Z, S# m
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Background remarks" I, z$ W( u* E& F
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ C( X+ P4 Z- h0 Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 K& m1 T' V$ M  @, b- z; s- ^
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 ^& ^7 U% i& Y" f1 s. w6 ?
adjustments.! |# L! x: a, S) w; @
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 m7 q/ c* J3 j* d, |8 ~! Q- Ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 Q* o: S& Q- e. W
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 B3 T$ j7 R/ ~4 Y0 e9 ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 ]. z8 u6 O% p- E: } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) }. @, V1 m: M8 n; W$ M
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, T4 r( J1 c" O2 i. | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* \, H3 w$ [9 l) Y# a# c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  _* h+ e) j3 B3 E* W. u- X! S
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 l3 L  w  ~; P4 Y4 v Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 s5 t/ H  k2 ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- W' \. G. w: f6 S4 J8 R, i% Z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 ]% G2 K) _2 K1 ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: o# t# a8 w0 b# w$ O3 vimpose liquidation values.! Q& R5 a8 F* e2 d
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! S; v6 e. s9 j- y9 X# c# q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ f/ w0 X4 n& i* g- u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. }- h6 r$ v2 d; Q$ b+ |. R
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 Q7 e6 {  ?5 Z# K
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A look at credit markets- [! L' k0 ]* C  O$ L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% ]! |6 k' B8 \% L2 q/ RSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# _5 L9 Z: M3 S) b- Q7 f High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 F% F7 W# h: h3 k; f; g: Z9 |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 H' e; M# m. I) j3 d+ dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 b+ J' z( E1 a/ p4 f) N
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. b+ J3 {! C! U1 j9 i
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; F9 k, `0 N8 @. f' p, [  lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 v" I) i1 K# I4 \" b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 z9 Z! D2 V$ s* a% y* J) t- G' H9 ]/ |finding financing.6 L6 f1 E5 V: ~( ?
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' }$ V- [: P& M# y2 n" `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. m% `: J8 `) K- L0 _6 p& o
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 Q3 Z; x5 x# h' S) B) t
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 g, j# b/ y+ V4 o- Egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 C; U8 s! v3 E7 y- Z
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 S1 t) x/ o! }3 c; \5 ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' D3 {. |6 J, l8 @
today.5 t3 m5 [" y2 P
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" T. J# R% b8 ]' r1 s7 P8 K- wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  F9 b+ c; e$ y; V8 k" F1 X2 ~! t
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 C0 }+ f5 u1 b4 a4 jthe Greek default.( a. Z  e+ u+ `& O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' m& E, z4 G& x5 B9 g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ h6 w/ p" j6 h8 {' b' Y" k; g+ r4 }( x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign$ C7 o+ i' ]5 T* A
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: ^! t' }+ U5 d! F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing0 ?. _8 a* N& N9 ]
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 x5 T# d4 G6 c5 E
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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9 ?6 _. u0 R" t: |# i2 F  ABeyond Greece
9 V6 e/ M7 l2 ]6 n! q; j The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; c0 e$ f# N% F' m5 P) A; a
but that was before Italy.$ A5 G1 A" T# b$ H1 p! i
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 M/ t) R9 a% a4 X- B: ~ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 @5 b% [7 c4 M! w0 m/ M) X7 \( MItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
1 j8 A( B$ I" d1 y* f, \/ } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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