 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation5 l: q+ Y( A9 p
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 T# X6 u8 ?. D; v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 H+ k+ q0 S/ Q7 j! N0 D& kimpose liquidation values.0 D) E" b7 M8 J+ K0 w ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: x7 l, l i J$ s4 M+ s+ D0 a8 w, RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( Z+ q+ R7 P, i* K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 Q% u* ~# k* i3 c9 H3 y" dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- I6 \& Y. H1 t: I' p
+ I3 g9 N( I& Y+ C' UA look at credit markets
4 a. ?, N: B9 R3 A! ~# |$ Y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ _5 w; v {. {7 n6 O) Q% F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% A, R' l2 \3 A- N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% A8 ?! ~+ y6 ?9 K( C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) j& h- ?& g; |' L B6 M( R! vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 J8 [5 M1 R$ A0 e5 n
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 z) k' y q2 I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* J3 C$ f! e, q/ `: ^ {3 N, M1 L, H
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* s o/ l$ N( d* u* D+ D i Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 M$ ~$ Y. ?/ t( A" z& E
finding financing.
3 T8 d, h2 [" ?! D* Q Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 m( u$ _8 U1 c. a1 [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 J5 h$ \$ g- s6 s( G/ o
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 q# R- V& c1 e0 {" Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: ]$ Y- o$ F. E7 M
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ E; t7 ?% ^4 }1 b" Z
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 ^0 s& J8 Y" z$ k* q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: `- G! B( F) _2 o
today.
1 B3 q f7 k# @$ s# \' v5 X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 R4 q3 N- Y( R$ Xemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|