埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3686|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 S& a) A) d- t8 s* F

/ X" d8 g6 A" P( DMarket Commentary
5 L# l& S% H' x  `, y0 \/ h4 DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 a+ i9 |8 q* E) ~
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, i: r/ T: ]1 ]' F, o; E' }Signature Global Advisors8 T6 P* ~7 C! X6 T4 W# t5 \
# U$ R: ^/ E& q
% H7 J/ J" x; o6 I) J& d0 x/ q
Background remarks
, S6 t& L+ T: H2 r# y$ Z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are" c7 Q; r1 G0 {
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ T8 B* A; M8 T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! \% R7 {1 q, K; b3 s1 Dadjustments.8 P) [4 n% e1 {! x
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ N& [0 B: Y( U4 [& }/ i/ ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: H. z6 f0 W1 \/ P/ A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* x( A" n* D0 ]. J: r! s# Jlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( y. C& i! L* ?2 {  M We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. M0 L7 h* w" ^% ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# M5 u% U. `* W# Z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" a0 ~- o: ]8 d9 }& q4 l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. v3 Y: W+ w  l& e" P
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.9 J) n8 Y4 N0 i
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 r6 @/ U9 K* Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! R, l4 @/ ~* D: K8 F" X4 I1 m
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' o1 R) c4 ^' _: l- }' p1 @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, U2 V5 Q  o- C& p5 o0 n
impose liquidation values.7 i: O5 V" S+ i% I8 n" S
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 A  D% O& L: w9 ]: a: D. d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' |. Z7 A0 E) T0 E8 I$ G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) `% N: J6 i. y+ j$ M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; s# Z3 P" w) Z; A% \$ s& T
8 d) N6 A) X( q. p3 [A look at credit markets
& k' Z( H0 h! w# [, X6 u2 F  f Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ z" m0 `& M3 H6 x; L0 |5 U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) L& r0 U1 H" @+ H. T+ r( w6 i9 h High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 p( d& X' i; s4 M0 u8 B
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' l) w8 [  K* ?3 W9 M( qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ e( X! r$ x- T0 q+ t  F/ t+ raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; U. P( r+ j$ J) _/ ?CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ G/ Q2 f5 V; I5 _positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# g- r* R# `; }7 g2 y. b Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# C2 O+ w' w4 d7 _+ ^5 }" E9 e$ ]9 tfinding financing.# I) p% w/ z! E* R; m9 X1 n
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 x) M) M" |& M' z8 {' _3 @6 x9 |
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) B- t/ t" s4 z* p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, Y2 G7 `" B5 [; Y# t1 ]2 N6 |9 D4 P+ X
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; }8 E& n, ]$ i2 X
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 J- g  ~+ Q. ?0 o" Y3 _/ ~
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; ^1 N" `( L: R# D0 ?8 \2 p European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  W5 U5 f/ f7 x9 x. _today.+ c& K0 n; `' \3 v1 m& h/ L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 P6 X( U; _5 f% d/ I6 f- v
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# V) F8 i: C, i8 T' d: u Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 t, J8 h* ?) K0 ]. ?2 T6 S
the Greek default.
' [" a& {( S' F7 ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. a$ Q/ ]% k  h$ ]
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) i" I- {4 p, G+ r
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  H3 X, U8 H! r, P
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  e# ~* j$ g& a6 B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 Z* H4 S3 w4 e8 R
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 H" I/ P; O; a6 N; ]' r4 t
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
3 t( ?  ?- Z3 S4 v* D; b$ f( ]+ E8 ?/ p. ~, D
Beyond Greece
& ~4 j2 m9 {) t The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 a' P' b/ J; R8 a
but that was before Italy.0 l' K5 s0 O9 K6 C4 W% l$ Y2 r
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( y! H; \9 d$ P$ {( a# n/ E
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) T* O* }9 [0 Y) W- U0 uItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
+ i  ?/ ^8 y- p4 p& P
. }1 ^& }; Q& W3 Q/ z9 |$ XConclusion
" B) Z2 Q9 W' H: O" ?9 @1 I" \6 R2 w We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-19 05:25 , Processed in 0.072353 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表