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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation& Y" `6 u4 r8 U/ l U2 c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 J( e4 }9 N: H4 Z. e* Uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' T7 r% e, F+ M# i6 N
impose liquidation values.
: K5 d1 Q. Z2 p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, |4 H' _% Y! B" i+ ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% F2 G2 m; C* g5 ^) h1 Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" E- x8 q% X% q- l2 u9 yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets3 Z: z" ^4 {9 W5 H* {1 E; P
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 y! v( {7 X# l; `" XSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* b" Y% m* k& A' V7 B% c
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ w4 A) F" g% B& U: ^; U0 Y8 Z. ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 h/ f, `% ~& i8 _% @& \' a- D2 t
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; j4 B9 O5 P- l6 j5 Z, f* Z- {
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; b1 ~8 {0 {6 t" B
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, y$ s4 c9 O( B& W! @; u1 p3 u$ w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. V; b# ^3 @0 F6 r7 Y$ J1 U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 o0 V8 {# B' o( T" a
finding financing. }' q, H$ i0 n d& ^/ M! }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 V6 ~% w4 R- I6 G/ ?$ p J0 _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* T+ F6 U; x6 I- R: E/ A$ h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 }3 i: [. x' g/ E$ B* }7 u# ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 S6 D$ v" s3 a* {6 w1 ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! }2 I& H( w5 W8 q" @: Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; k% B5 s" f7 y \) i6 T/ N European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! x7 n" |) Q% E0 H, h: |1 N/ i5 ~7 ~
today.
9 P0 ?6 t8 y! t# ?7 Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in0 r1 X* q7 T6 ~5 d$ I
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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