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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
" s1 E+ u* T) w6 d4 P2 B4 |/ x The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
3 j7 W: _ E7 S0 y" Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# N8 W* c. W- Uimpose liquidation values.
9 ^" @5 t! z& W7 [0 j4 ]; s In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 j! I3 n( T& B6 c4 l8 w2 B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 i8 W! e5 Y+ M& T
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! z, S% t& \: Y e9 _scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
" |1 u: P1 g3 w# h ~ m# N
5 A8 E: f$ u8 Y1 AA look at credit markets$ C/ b6 F9 R9 l& A: r
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" B" K! C4 K: F& S1 i7 v
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 ]$ N* u$ B6 N. z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ G/ }" U+ _$ s* A+ Y6 ?" \
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
@! l0 [% ~8 w3 A7 T4 R0 v& P6 pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 _- d0 P9 r+ L8 _' S" _
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 L/ y3 S8 B4 d' [9 I% c* C' iCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 [6 G: y9 n0 q, f6 x) {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, P0 V U) a( w$ }2 e! t; r0 Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, H) n6 o' q5 E
finding financing.( D- B2 d$ r/ ~: U; {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. T2 e3 v7 i8 iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 b, {1 _/ x8 l: H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 [# u! [3 x9 [- i" m" K: y4 m2 f
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 n7 R6 y7 M! K' u1 cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- W) o. ~4 h: y% H7 U
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& H9 X$ A. n8 y7 Z1 G, T European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! Z K5 G7 n' ]1 A2 ?5 @today.$ d) w, D0 {% m
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 S+ e# \6 [ O- i: N- ?emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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