市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

! P& t4 a! @6 C& g/ t- X) PMarket Commentary
6 L9 o6 ]5 w  D3 }Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ d' w; k. |! d: o3 H# Y3 n9 |Signature Global Advisors


  T! W6 Q$ d, g" s3 wBackground remarks
- b, m% N2 Q# N7 ~7 ?6 S% P Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  `7 i  F& U$ F) M, V% l) A  V Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
2 `$ y8 b* `/ B* X7 P This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, x: O2 ]/ u$ P2 V( v' ~) ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 Y& D1 f+ `: K& blessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ B& }; S9 F; N5 D) n6 l7 k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% Z0 I. [% Q) D$ Z5 b. padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ n5 u' p* \  }+ a  C" Zquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 m* Y( A: B9 p9 u" H/ \$ F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- V/ m7 [2 J1 h* r2 U3 d5 n2 Oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 R0 S- ]0 p7 b; S4 i/ P; w" Jimpose liquidation values.
0 m: L& C$ _8 S& ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 X  I4 l, ~+ C' f( \4 s0 u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: n& j7 K/ S. J# g( nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: x  v0 u! K$ F3 a9 [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 }: I3 V2 g2 A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. w4 R' p4 I9 a- i( vfinding financing.
" V0 l; `6 S% L+ |9 Q  ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* {' m4 ]. g0 ]. X1 }% Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 A9 ^7 N9 p) Q& H. r5 `5 ?today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ |/ u+ W4 N& ^5 u6 u& o" bthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; L! J6 v/ b2 F* H4 @debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( }. g4 A% ?7 v$ D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
* a4 k* n: x5 M, c- w
Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
7 F6 Q6 B; O( _: X5 f It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

, }% t0 K& |$ H1 u, KConclusion
& U! }/ a( ^" e" o- x We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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