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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
6 \2 D* `9 P6 ~Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ z& P6 H5 T  ^" u6 }0 t; a+ D6 N
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ Z9 N4 r2 I& D8 H- \
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks. |9 }' s; V8 u3 U
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; E( Y' t- s, k  ~- t2 o0 Jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 P7 X9 \( O9 j5 V+ @8 h Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 Q$ J% \" t* t0 A) m7 \adjustments.
& ?% l% [* n3 B. c" F This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ o9 M- U+ R; K7 t; \* P0 O( Q4 Nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  D/ L! ]. {. `- L. B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are- C, h# i; R* T. V8 `  z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 O  h* r- `4 Q" I6 k3 R# ]5 Q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 f4 L0 j3 ]3 jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. [2 S( F  y( ?; k$ a Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ K( V" |# o) G' y1 O) V2 t2 r& lquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 r6 U. E" g9 Z+ p* V# [
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
2 h/ t4 u  E) t2 J, m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* H9 k2 J* Q' |! v9 b, s0 i
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 _9 U1 E# D. G% z: t The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- N" b; L$ d% ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ H9 I- M; c' Z. b* \impose liquidation values.
3 f5 w7 d" A; H, S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, R5 n8 I0 J6 e% O, g1 RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 x3 K* w% p0 J7 [& l7 ^/ C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) M: G( W: z7 v5 {* tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 L) m) U1 v6 t6 j+ @A look at credit markets
' {7 ]% H9 {8 n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 E- s% p' k' h3 q2 D
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! S; o, z6 d0 F2 T$ w/ l. t High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%, \# Y  q6 A+ o& k& R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) x) V# i- R: j0 @) _+ qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 \2 a- H( }5 xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ [4 K& M& z, x5 m+ O8 O0 R
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( f) X+ e7 k% c* ~+ {5 tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 k9 @1 m9 d* p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 e0 O$ ~" E& y* L
finding financing.5 i4 G0 j) t: H
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. f: X6 T/ e4 r! B$ u+ b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# _* }) b) ^! {; k( h4 V$ J. Q& N" h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 B' r5 J( G7 b) z! O) k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& \* h7 ]* r( I: V8 Z7 p% d
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: ?: s0 o5 F* v' T: h
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 U/ C$ ]0 w) q( i" c/ V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) W( R7 @6 j/ [6 r$ U0 F3 ptoday.
: u6 h$ ^3 ^* B0 W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. K- a2 E5 V, J) g4 @emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 P% d! p8 J6 U% O% T& n
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* T9 }5 q9 `' D! |& O# ~6 C; g$ K
the Greek default.
. d& W2 d+ A2 i% t# ~5 C, D( z) ^ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: {/ R/ R- f( a- L. l
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, V) n1 v4 q8 P* X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 @6 J7 f2 m" J3 s3 K6 N" E4 Y% ]9 b
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% m- v3 j3 m4 N; Z; G0 |3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: l9 S0 g& W2 Q9 H) P4 m' ~* Y, L6 I- Rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 E* C9 @( t  |8 B& `  ]- h4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
3 _: u. D$ t$ C, {& V The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( h6 H2 q' T6 ~  x$ `but that was before Italy.
* m9 _9 f; q6 _4 r; M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ ~% ?' U! C: B% Q, e
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 \( h" S5 b' b2 mItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& S8 N& F! Y! Z. y7 {& V. R

* l" u, u" u3 i/ |5 `5 w) X$ AConclusion
0 |7 |/ M8 }8 U8 ?' Q0 j6 d We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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