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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
# J- S7 ]! F7 W# c7 M5 P" ~3 WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* b+ ]  P) [  e9 Y/ u) }( V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ d: I. Q! }, I& F' W. TSignature Global Advisors: N  S9 g# @% a9 J
# c5 J: q* m8 y9 ]1 V
! v! h4 F* {; y7 {& H( \" ]
Background remarks
4 o* k, \' b! n1 b: M+ e, l* }0 Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! k9 B: R9 s' a
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 C1 v' ]& S1 g* D
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ t; s1 G/ V9 _7 r8 B2 W
adjustments.
3 x8 `' u  h2 ?* [2 \6 s; i8 J This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 \) m* q, V7 d! q5 ~safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 \# s0 F2 E2 O/ {2 g' m& f3 Q4 T! I Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- w/ D) L% U' wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, r: k5 E3 g& Y6 ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 k6 v. H: Y4 _& T; ~
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 ^% K- T# @1 @* e
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 I/ a* f6 ]( {9 y. z. t+ _4 kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 {- O( w6 r# w: ]: `
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 |: b' U6 a0 R& g
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ Y6 {; \' w5 [$ z! H+ o9 P
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ A" [# c# P7 h& d" G9 I" Y2 d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- j4 F; `- y" p0 v- x$ Las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 n; q: v/ x3 himpose liquidation values.
; x6 l6 \3 C8 ?7 o$ q5 Y- j" D& K In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ Q; Q6 v  l: M9 _/ t6 G$ yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( K+ q2 O8 t3 K The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' H" G6 E# z  W$ V. C7 j, t6 E
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
+ `+ G, t/ ^7 {& M3 t+ {( b
/ q+ a2 k. n0 g  GA look at credit markets
) x8 q) Z5 |5 ^/ O7 C Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ C& @  }4 H4 i" S8 t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, i8 p  p% _  Q3 N2 F  L High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ p$ t) f) [% l, ^* Y9 p% n( z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: N$ O' m) Z9 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, D# A- E0 \  Z" M$ u! u2 `" Yaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# K: y$ k- i! o% V- u. SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: j6 ]; r" x* Y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 n5 v) m! p$ I6 B9 _6 h4 a
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- g/ P# k7 k! M& o1 l1 G- Ifinding financing.0 M" l0 u+ z0 J  |+ y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ J1 E& K3 R$ i0 r" m- j! b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ j3 a, b: x4 O* J$ V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( Y' c  H& _+ i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 A" y  v9 @' }9 ?! W. G  Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 y% @" q2 U! D) u! R. l; M  t) Ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 c9 F- [8 v+ ^6 C0 r& ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 |; W( o; ]2 N9 `% j% L  R2 h
today.
+ W6 z% W! Y6 f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- B, R1 Q2 W' r! i; K( a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 b0 G# z, R5 q5 b8 \  K
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ s3 q5 Y, w7 d' k' fthe Greek default.
- a; ]: x1 z' K1 ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, J# Y) M7 A7 c5 L8 _1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! q6 e" U# k7 [$ b2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  F, P6 u9 o. wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ r3 A1 v5 Z3 b3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( |2 h/ b3 k' ~+ w0 e2 p) i& dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, e- F5 [# p  ]) ?" ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
  Z0 V; ]) x; Y9 F0 ]$ E! I The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
8 o- s* Z- m4 ^4 h- n" Cbut that was before Italy.7 Q" O, @7 ]) e, ^! b1 D
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 m/ a0 |! c: w( R8 L8 k/ d
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 w5 M- V3 i8 p% H0 WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 E6 X3 V5 Z- v' Y* e3 K
( a$ m4 E( _1 K
Conclusion
" m0 G0 V1 f( j' D0 A! i3 H We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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