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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
* h5 W" P( S3 ?' i% FEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% P1 h) Y3 j" f$ S  BJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 j5 q- Z' ?& |Signature Global Advisors
' d( T8 m+ X1 m: X) c; A: z/ R' t

4 B$ l! F0 b  X* NBackground remarks  {" n7 O8 e" E% }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 z: x# D7 d* K1 uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., \  y3 q0 i* ~6 v  A
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ h4 A! T! N! Xadjustments.  K; U) ?' t# ^) y6 S/ J5 f# W
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ v: j+ m8 v7 ^+ _1 R+ ]: nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) _) W% H. E) B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 b- s% @, {; f4 W) Dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) A4 n9 f' P4 _4 x2 F4 y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. z4 ?7 G7 }+ r* m; radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: i& v1 O+ I! G  d+ x$ i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 J1 t$ U- K9 }, m" ~) e$ L/ dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 H8 C: }6 c& f) j2 R
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 K/ t" `+ @+ i2 Y) k/ a. p& X! J
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 J  R5 L' E' G1 [0 J+ U
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ _) `% p8 U9 _* R The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 a* }* @3 v, x3 l
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! {5 f0 L+ X' ~; R
impose liquidation values.
7 k+ G6 s. {3 o$ M/ E1 ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ K6 r4 f( f( S# W/ J, v2 Q( ~: j2 k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 ~7 X+ n- c; z4 I0 g) y) ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, t* V& e: M* b4 R9 a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 ?/ I1 ]  h1 s% p

& s1 \, O; ^/ J4 v& ?' Z  nA look at credit markets( C2 [; }0 n' w5 H0 W5 v5 X! l% A) Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# J5 m. Z4 h& w$ B% v, R8 _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. K+ M  C- Y: o$ f7 n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: `2 Q+ B- }% ~. A
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 p, K6 F8 h. _* `9 ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. y3 @, |+ A& l) C
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; _% S# N) V4 f4 f7 LCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 D1 O0 a8 @" Q7 G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# C3 o  x% w/ u' X/ o6 f2 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: ^6 K8 k2 |) J: U" l& n4 p# ^* dfinding financing.
$ \: |5 G9 L6 P Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 T( G, ^: D- ^) o; Nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ }/ i% k$ j* @# a7 q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( {5 K% z1 T2 ~' b% A- Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 H; Y6 R6 ?9 l% N# a. ~
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ I; M, r/ R( |0 [* Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, g9 @& A* u5 Q1 s# `2 A' C European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, }8 q3 p% v2 @" S: Utoday.  Z6 c9 }* ~1 F/ O0 n! L% ^, X
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& T3 U4 k$ R3 }. P# u# d- aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 m. ?6 [& I7 h2 {9 ^0 y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ [% P0 M9 M! Q+ X) [; P6 c- ?5 q, Bthe Greek default., s' ~2 `+ J- d! `) k9 N  p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
# I. m) Y) G6 u7 H& ]6 m3 r1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% _6 S0 G# K: {+ p. c
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  I1 }' K: Y1 y" V
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 Q. O* s# R% O& m% j! e
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 ~$ A) |5 W) G/ E; o* M
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; Z: Z( B3 Q" A8 I& ~7 s  w4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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! E( w) g% K0 ]* Z: o6 qBeyond Greece
; Q' V- z3 U$ p8 ~' C The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- V% P# T2 o; s1 w+ |0 i9 jbut that was before Italy.
' l7 B2 }: e3 g& P/ D6 _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) A# k8 h: J; e( A! H# a: h% A0 q
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ O& a2 T4 z7 }& l; @7 B( rItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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9 h+ x+ c3 |# h- W) P8 [) MConclusion
! R6 c5 C7 E. f8 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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