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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- ]0 b! c% Z( Q$ e8 O

3 N2 p! S3 r9 jMarket Commentary9 {9 r0 n# J( ], ]. g4 {/ n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ z/ G* l/ M9 Z: l7 F3 ?3 s& ^( @9 S/ B" ?
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' {$ u$ z+ ^+ }6 G' d. h
Signature Global Advisors
/ X  B$ y! ]' b' \
6 N4 q3 {/ n$ ]# W1 F/ t0 b: l( H8 R* |, M
Background remarks
; C3 t( m0 y0 M/ C8 B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 `3 q9 a7 R% u# n, A
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# L' l4 N+ o3 G4 h: v
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ }8 x7 u4 s, _) padjustments.: r$ A4 h8 R$ [$ |7 O0 k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ t/ e8 z  }- O, {4 G3 Xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' T9 {/ _% r" [) b$ R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ ]! t7 T' r. [, f8 V( Q# `" d
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 \: g  O) e1 m+ O* G4 `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these- u% i* [4 `9 p2 L1 z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.4 `  S( W* L" e8 c! T* k
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 i2 U  }4 o8 A- Tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( v# N; x* D3 r( M1 k: J; K4 U5 Q8 d+ ~ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ t$ N& Y: Z# B! n1 O. ~$ } Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' D- L: `6 b, a  }
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 X. \. I+ b' }/ k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long4 j0 |" P; v1 G- W! u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( n1 @0 b! ]  S3 ?7 E
impose liquidation values.
! R7 C% [* F% x) t/ b In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 \! L5 h# i. e; l3 PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! z9 {! r0 {- z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 C( g5 T& w$ @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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6 t9 w1 K: s% w/ q1 DA look at credit markets& h' k- ]0 t  `/ \/ E" }* B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
. l4 ]( g. u9 Q' R4 `2 zSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, W* K7 {  p7 L  \; m/ r6 c  b: G8 \; r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) f4 e6 ^- O8 F1 i5 }, E; fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ C6 Z4 U# l, r
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, W0 b5 f+ y* h6 q5 W. L) L- X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ {9 n0 E8 T, X8 qCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 @# Y" o9 H/ a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 b8 s) G9 W& x  E9 z; u4 s' w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. H& j- k1 X! J+ D1 C; z
finding financing.. l) O6 L" `7 O; E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they& p+ T: X8 a) K& u5 z  t# q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 l- {; |/ v& x6 C+ r2 c, t6 g7 o+ \
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; X1 D3 W7 l) B' @0 O) g* ]- q$ |is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 [  O4 m' Z; y2 q" A9 ?, t
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% ^2 K6 j& y, r1 ~
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." }" g6 J; W/ }- U7 v" }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: V. G% O% I% y( M$ q7 E! atoday.
; |  E- F0 {7 j: r' v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 h5 c* U, ]  e+ T/ Q2 B6 p; H
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 o8 L; ~1 ~) P$ G2 R4 _0 t& J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ u: m2 v9 ~- d+ ~- c3 B* Lthe Greek default.
+ o3 W3 ?3 ^+ g As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:3 V2 z& b3 x5 z  A* I
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, m: }2 F( k9 }$ h3 \
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ C* }. A- B% p9 D: h  [debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 F* e$ U) ^$ ~/ |! k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 J: g0 G. g0 b/ M5 B' F5 }banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* F- E) |; p( s) t
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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( y. r+ }' \; |- T: N1 LBeyond Greece
1 q% M" t8 t/ v, A% H) s The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' K; ^' z7 p2 g7 k% F% Y  ^but that was before Italy.6 {5 ?& q4 C  }
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  P+ v) T2 u" e  ]* K, _8 O- z( H
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: W" K  ^+ f' m/ R) @4 z8 k/ t, x
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion# j2 x7 g$ [- q# }
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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