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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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9 Q/ t/ _' @" s( `4 O0 @Market Commentary* O5 |" {" X9 `& ~1 K/ B
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 p  q/ x# a9 W$ |4 UJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 i% S% j1 d* d5 n: o$ X
Signature Global Advisors. B( d" q; }$ f. x. o: ^

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Background remarks: y# Q, u. A* I! v* V  @3 |
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 ]3 a. D  @1 p
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* t" [& I0 b+ P9 \2 r
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 C5 @1 g, t. R, l0 x
adjustments.
! l+ D. U7 e4 q2 x) X* ]! Y  B0 h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: h9 \+ h* v/ N! j+ fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" c( M5 b1 y! F) b, ~9 C Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 _& S9 l9 w& \1 x: c7 zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 E: ]% l5 H2 y% Z! P4 e* F
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; p5 f8 g4 ]# o5 i3 Yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 l0 i0 {% ?. E
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 {" a# A. Q' F+ D% L
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. n1 q( y7 t& r# r& c* f7 R1 f Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 B6 s. P. b! L5 t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# B- {3 {, \) Z9 {
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, q4 }. V# I7 U! k: H6 ~
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ m  B: h" r7 g- C
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 |! S9 ^( k/ a0 Uimpose liquidation values.
8 B2 M. m9 e( L+ a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 o, G/ R5 [! u; E) R3 YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# |( |( b- ?- I1 s
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# z$ F9 z8 M8 K' C, U/ r+ m/ vscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. Z' g. M1 ~4 |2 J* B! R; x1 {
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A look at credit markets" U: o; a1 h2 |4 e8 b7 L0 y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 w, R: @5 K' _# o7 `% \
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
2 T6 B" ]. c$ {, c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
2 R- O5 y1 R/ S( J0 L* D; [: Hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
2 f( K0 F$ m' L# M$ Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; |! F) d0 m* |+ p' d: [  k4 G
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: ]0 T" v8 X; k5 p' J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: c) m0 U" w+ V) t- |6 s- Q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! l  k- C/ H! F; D6 e. S
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 m! |& @1 `0 Cfinding financing.
) y, f) K* o4 L Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 s/ }+ a, z2 [$ c3 P! ]* `# ~
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 u* j0 H5 T1 @8 ?5 ~! V9 R( @ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' T9 ^8 ?) y) W# ?; u" i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" B$ Z( w4 U6 Q, r9 p/ E: z6 y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" w9 i" l. Y! E0 Q' f" Gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" A# I3 y2 `3 f+ B3 {* h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 @' a# t3 U- F& [; F6 Z
today.
( h4 s7 }" n0 O. R! U8 u: J7 T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 `5 T# J  ^1 c0 k0 K0 o1 v# Oemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" V" Q4 i1 e' n1 P4 O1 p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for3 T" e3 t2 x8 ]" M# U
the Greek default.7 s+ D/ ^! M% F+ c$ F4 W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* B% f8 u5 l& U% a; h: g) I
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% n$ W5 f: d) u( h3 U/ B+ X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign; U1 ?4 `' ^) @4 W
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* F. \& T4 T* S3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing* J; E% I- n( |
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ c8 M- k( c$ V8 j4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# |9 x* w, |7 f
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Beyond Greece( Y1 I0 u+ k/ _8 [" n( s: F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 D5 z& Z1 c8 Q$ G
but that was before Italy.
0 p7 C# j; `3 \, _5 {: w It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ V; H8 P6 [* y% @/ ~3 r4 A It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' L+ S6 t) t2 _6 H% H! I5 UItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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