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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary  g# _- b3 j1 j% e
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  i( p0 B6 k5 L; K% n
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* s3 F$ h& t! D. [# p5 \& O- R2 j) w
Signature Global Advisors
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' U+ F! K; |6 s; y1 TBackground remarks
2 D( }3 z& y0 v0 ` Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( U% c0 K2 i1 K' B- tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 A$ ]+ X8 C2 t: K
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 s" ^. u* l7 J" d. |5 xadjustments./ n8 F7 H' G( m2 d' T3 J8 M8 h
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  f. o8 F9 w- ?8 i6 U' Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 m+ _' f- O0 v; g Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 |$ b- P; g: Rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, l4 I, W1 B. i$ d2 r9 R* V We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 D5 \" T0 b# I; ~- z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 q/ E" o3 R1 Z* z) ^
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% B' N$ m( z9 [0 a' z4 v/ h) H; n
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' \- D9 |4 ^  k0 p* x Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# J) c, ~% j) \9 V5 e0 ~, Y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 N( L# r! r! u- E& f- p/ Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 M2 I6 p8 I8 S' B The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& R* z' u, Q8 t2 sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: a7 v2 _  L( x% H& {4 Dimpose liquidation values.
. x( N" F1 J( n* Q& z: ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. Z6 ^' o( {: Z# [+ u7 }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. m- S' j: H! |1 ]$ y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 s' V% J3 Y" R8 J7 mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# F; K/ y$ W5 _) B, g/ r9 U4 z
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A look at credit markets) q* a( L# X( h) d# E+ Z- @% ?
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ j! N7 `$ t) S, u* t; fSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 y: p9 u" U% Z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 N  b) g) R$ [6 I* N3 K, ^
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: ~. v$ J# F5 b) R8 f  d# ~
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) n0 o" J6 Z( Q$ K( ^
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 f; _9 `" F0 F1 H" v+ H
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; v! [3 g, i; ]6 bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. x! C; d, N  S+ r Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( l1 L0 d0 N( C3 D, ufinding financing.
) ~- e- @. X! h/ m, F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; I* v9 i6 x/ X. ^" \were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 m* c# x! \* k5 T: b
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 _3 l4 u! M( c8 _* _
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ P+ ^  H" M( k; e/ W2 n1 [" Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 L/ G+ f3 k& p( }' c
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 c# I: ~, g4 x% o" \" K- a  _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& }/ D0 w2 u7 _- d3 m% s4 H3 ^! W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( G* d: E  D% Q& ~% s Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
5 w* f: _# c. l) jthe Greek default.
, m/ _- g; t3 A: N As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 U6 ?* T- O' V1 {3 Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 Q# ~; z: y. q6 i' H! \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# e- ~/ y+ A$ f8 k1 [debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# h$ T/ T6 v, g" i& f- d/ i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- Z. @! s3 m) ]: i0 J
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( t2 H4 x" g" m2 n/ P* Q; P0 C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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4 G- o) g. |; L& P" ?/ z0 z! z$ jBeyond Greece
  O8 a2 J* |2 g) _9 g% ]" u5 Z' h The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; w2 E" B8 z/ _
but that was before Italy.
1 W& b4 g& r  X# I) J8 a It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; x# v$ K8 c, S2 U
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  c: R# J; [$ w
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
1 L! W7 {6 k0 t. ]0 n8 G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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