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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 W/ t- h4 P, u# K
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Market Commentary
9 j( Q: {2 p4 V! I/ @4 D' _9 TEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( f3 T7 W8 s& Z% K7 W- {% ~/ Y3 JJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 b) Z2 A; J4 p$ u
Signature Global Advisors% s# {/ `+ ~, ?% _
& Z4 p  N- O" x" b

$ ^0 C  N7 w: B! l3 `Background remarks
5 T  v; V# `7 k1 J# F. k Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
) }" @; b5 K9 G# \* j1 Jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. a8 a) o& e7 B# Y5 }( i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& N: A! ^1 l( o9 Z! Radjustments.0 |. ~6 J& w& V. }
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 t1 [" i; n- _5 z  Z" C6 |& _  csafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.* U" Z# _; P! N: P9 K3 Q5 ^+ `* j  b1 q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: e- v: A8 M: ^0 Y7 Nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ B3 Z$ X6 L- V- Y$ d' d
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 F, @# H/ B$ g" ^0 F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  y+ m- K: E8 \; J' i" \. N$ F Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ `/ i- `& U0 A& t7 m. f6 m" V
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  Y* J8 \& X  k0 s
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* A) c1 D  e/ }' g) p6 ~ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) U. x6 ?7 N- X7 \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation7 B! L: m0 H6 k: l# [3 ~/ F
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# x% f* g% v, j* ~2 I) H" xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. j' s4 G& [; B3 S: ^
impose liquidation values.+ E0 ?# z" x) |* W7 Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& G# A5 n& X. i1 ?" T' nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 \6 a7 F' T$ ~6 g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' u5 Y# z) m0 Y" }; X4 X- B
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
1 _; M! f$ j) M Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' b& S  B  x% nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 n! O. T$ H  T- L. G$ O
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& o# W3 x6 j& ^4 p9 {3 W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# _+ h5 u- u. U  V
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  _8 r! e/ o/ m+ g0 ~( Y9 e* U
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 @( J" x4 A6 o- G+ \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 k- z7 s9 \- R+ z; a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 p! x8 N5 K% e! n/ ?- @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 d9 ^5 J7 I8 T$ h( l3 x/ o$ Vfinding financing.  k' m  t: m9 J3 F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! U7 m" L& l5 d$ L3 _& O8 \- u
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ \9 H# h7 M2 E+ {$ i2 I Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- B# o  S3 q& E0 r" |( z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- f+ C0 ]2 L2 W0 r' I% M' ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) s& }6 y$ J+ j5 `7 v0 W# n
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  u% ]8 g, o7 E8 C European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 \! K+ q$ z5 T. |$ \
today.* I+ l% i+ t+ U$ [5 E
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 u& u; J  }+ i8 H/ E* femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 i8 Q3 |* G4 p1 f! r$ S3 G$ k
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for" c8 Q  Z/ M7 _" w9 j9 b* G( l
the Greek default.
  w0 ~2 G& d& }: T9 @; p" N9 k" i5 h As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ \1 P) K( r7 w: K' |$ r7 L' ?. @
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  M7 Z1 E0 ?, _/ [
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, z/ b1 b! @0 H  T9 L( G! |7 w: G
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ Y/ i. ]2 s* U* e8 X6 z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 a& M- p0 G" w9 E
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years; W& T8 k$ U. u% C) {& ]
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 ^+ @# m. G" R7 u$ W

% [, }* f4 x$ u# X3 D% kBeyond Greece
! M" q4 l! Y' X. q6 N The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  S8 H/ _: g: w7 _6 G1 t' Ebut that was before Italy.
- Q# {) ]) q9 c# h( C# R) X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 S! g! H: U' }$ s+ Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 j! ?! B# g+ u4 h1 [+ i% c( F2 tItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion4 K0 h- m" g" ~! l1 d) E
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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