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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary! K) g6 b) |' M5 }( z: Q6 v, K5 B
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# r0 l- b  x- g
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 G# l5 S( S( MSignature Global Advisors. G6 a- ]0 d: l5 J

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Background remarks4 Y& ~7 i) N) l  s3 Y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; i! {& d/ e1 N$ B! U* B6 Das much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; \! `8 h, p1 M4 y, j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( F* X/ L* F+ u: |0 i
adjustments.' u! l7 K. l0 ?! K* M; p
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( s7 d5 F6 \! m/ n8 f, C4 h
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 x; w$ I& c  O8 k8 Z3 h/ z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are" q* g( L1 @& i  T* A
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 ]) I3 a5 I6 w# k9 y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& b" Z. j7 {: ?& q% Wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage., A1 }6 t+ K6 H+ `  L& V0 A
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! H& H7 r6 a' `
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 _4 r( {* g1 Y+ s7 D1 z
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 \4 f) V+ `6 G$ _, b Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 E  J$ Z! @( T3 u. V; i
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 R! P+ B: a7 D+ F& a* B The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* Z' T9 n% g. e* D" Q+ Ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" J0 V% v$ y8 o. R
impose liquidation values.0 [. K& Z  J8 [
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  y( \  ]/ N! D% S3 ?: pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 k: Z4 W8 |) g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 \7 \+ p, Q6 n5 h" V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
. n1 i9 _  N* P% ?/ B$ ^; S Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- i" @1 v0 T; H1 d3 w3 oSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 ]5 H9 K: R% B7 a6 Z! \ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# h3 P3 ?, K' M. g4 hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! l% o$ _/ o0 c; g! [2 |2 Tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* [7 y) ^; }" ?6 G; \  }access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% _- t, t+ }, n+ X% O. T- OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% R/ n7 w: {/ N! b+ a$ K
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 ]$ r2 K  u) M4 z, B9 ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! |$ {/ N; P# k  j  r
finding financing.; D# n$ f# j( i2 O, y9 z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- r* U8 |1 ~+ B6 e  w; t
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- u* j3 ?( n9 P2 f0 Y: r; { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( I+ S! {2 j+ G* f; i" v, s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! K/ B" `* R1 `0 n+ I
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 U4 k& z  y, Q# Hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ A: X9 j& q, M. O* \+ o, S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' Q5 ]( D0 T* \, I& ]" c
today.+ H7 t9 t5 N7 @: c. E8 F$ f- z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 J5 y7 a; g% |% U7 v! Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ t9 V' W/ k7 x, y( t0 W4 p" H# ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ S. s  @. b+ Y: |  |- Ethe Greek default.* `9 ?' J4 Z4 h  w! A5 z5 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  N+ j+ r7 A" d2 l# ^$ f  a1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default- S9 R) X% ~0 }) t
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 A" P5 M$ x. ?, E  U. J& H+ C* q
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ ^0 `; f, K" I, ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: w. T) v% E" ~5 @8 b; {7 Dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ N6 c' A; L% R' u& g* T4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
2 t& U! b  V) x: Y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 k5 j8 \" f2 D
but that was before Italy.
# b4 Y" f# S' V: d! ]# d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( K* b. Z* ]6 ]" X
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& Q  V- T2 w# H% N  b  nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.1 p7 j8 H8 T5 q( k2 _. X9 c0 [
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Conclusion
2 d- b7 S# w$ H4 V4 b0 t We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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