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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 ~5 `, {- H! e, y; ~1 h" [9 O( n; u( U
Market Commentary3 e% p  u4 a+ U" a1 i+ V4 o" j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) F2 u: @7 A8 f* W% U$ Q' J- P4 m' ^
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ N5 ]( J% u8 Q: {. ]Signature Global Advisors! g1 r! k3 i# P
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2 |) O* e! z+ x+ c; O" q; F8 M
Background remarks: s/ a  J3 |. b5 Y( m
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% x; R! _6 r. A8 f: |
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) T9 l7 u* j+ K3 g8 o- ]) N
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* ^% p; [( Y0 N6 R7 {adjustments.
8 R+ `: h; A/ y+ y, d# X This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 E9 x0 V0 K% d3 M0 B: |+ Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ R4 u: w  W, v1 G Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are# y3 a' X; \' H) v
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, l5 c4 i* k# J We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these/ w; _0 c& P( Q& Y1 S4 f  E) A0 C, _  Q
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.4 Y; C/ h* s% w9 ]) `
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ }- |, ?/ O% n- s: equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( ]9 `9 h7 w% X5 r8 c  y2 k
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 s' t& |3 C2 ?8 T0 H& }
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 G  ^  G/ x( \$ W' F9 I
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( O3 i2 L# B3 j6 T! j, n$ W0 w* y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 {: d, m& j. [, Fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 @. D+ t& E7 ?
impose liquidation values.
: Y1 w) ?3 N; V4 R3 S  o In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& R) @8 z3 d5 S- W5 x
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. I* V$ F' m" Q2 y' N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 C/ a) G5 S( Y0 Y1 z$ n
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* Z: n2 j5 a% F0 J  J. g) ]6 C* i

- L+ d+ ^! P" w/ g) B; a8 uA look at credit markets, L' Y! r* {+ O( d9 s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. R2 M. K! D. i) A1 C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- z: E/ \5 B1 V7 F# }5 B6 ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* M7 |: F# r  w' ~* f7 F9 v+ c/ i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) m5 g- [/ ?6 X  ?- ?0 hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) h3 v3 {* n1 g/ V6 M
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ `1 U9 l% f6 w, J9 @CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 A% o+ ]1 f6 p  H  q- v# X% K" w
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 s( G4 @0 e, r; u$ J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; ?/ P3 c/ l  I- ^
finding financing.) h6 p7 A. }0 H) Y6 }1 h1 {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they  K4 \1 ]+ G" @" d1 |$ F6 j7 S5 ~
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 w( A- a5 z5 G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" t, a2 G: [0 iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. n+ x9 d0 M. C" K9 z+ w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
% G( O6 U, l$ S% x  j& Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 }8 {8 Q6 Q: r8 j7 `
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 m- m1 o, t6 X
today.
# n  T- z8 J! R, ^5 c% Z# \ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  U1 F" d/ F) x4 I5 ~" L/ remerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 w+ \* H3 W3 W' g2 n
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: S" G# i+ C1 T( [$ y8 k  Uthe Greek default.0 H  y' P; d: Q+ j# P  E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:3 S' k' t7 W3 z4 I8 f1 W
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& {1 c5 I; M& s; N! b) W
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 e$ s9 s* [6 @
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.  S# ^$ _: f& v# v
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 t8 \4 z$ l1 `6 E9 ^0 `/ u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 V/ e' o$ H# t* M  B) ^$ U& ]6 C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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( P" V, `6 D" q  A; }. ]3 E4 LBeyond Greece
0 n$ Z: f# a7 m The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& v/ f2 j, E4 l, Y* y% {9 L- I
but that was before Italy." Y# t) o( }2 O( k; s5 E
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* s( w! d9 Q: q9 s7 |+ T
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ D/ M# J( R4 d
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
% B2 Z2 Q9 E+ a% J7 @
/ p2 H2 n; E8 z. w8 G) N3 DConclusion
; @' u! V) s6 d8 T  Q  e1 \" c, b We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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