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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
) x& ~7 l7 G" `1 X6 t% tEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% u0 U" N) q0 Z! h
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) c( e9 g8 R2 h6 _Signature Global Advisors( c: O9 G5 y' D2 m1 o" g2 Y# ?, p
9 v; T1 i6 w) \: ^

( z0 I4 I9 z' j# P9 G$ d) CBackground remarks
2 _5 s. y0 p! y: e3 {# j/ P- U$ t Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 C0 g  r$ I: I' kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 g/ e" w4 N  j/ n3 k- P Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 ~/ v4 O0 _; U
adjustments.
+ ~. `# c3 ~6 Y4 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
9 C# y1 u6 o7 Osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 N( Y) E9 m8 r2 s( z' X2 U
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ z% u8 i: Y$ a; }7 g4 V8 b  M
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ ]1 j0 T- g/ X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these1 g  N4 ~7 U, }" x3 h6 }  J- Z9 t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! p3 q# }5 C/ {9 q6 k+ ^% Z7 q6 p
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* \: L$ w( j: E8 Y8 W
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: f  X; n5 Q8 B& Z: Y  h
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ a, S# a* Z) G8 I% X Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 N3 q# \* i9 C$ Kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; H' G, Z' |# |3 h& E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 Y( g" F6 w& G( s9 Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 L) o7 N' l' gimpose liquidation values.* B; I4 y5 e2 X1 w/ C# v5 K
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! K5 K3 C: A$ y2 p$ d" ^* S
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 w( X  K# b0 t/ X6 B, G8 a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: G  x0 [$ v. Q( w% V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
3 e* f- U! ?/ e# a+ W8 P7 t3 O) j8 F1 k+ V8 V
A look at credit markets
: v9 i( o9 D5 z# @8 A' V# r- H Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 Z/ |- M  H# C% z1 }2 T5 l
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 p, o: n3 j/ r0 P- w, l; e High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 }" P( q! y% Z$ R' s4 l4 f5 lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1  H# T& f: b# |5 U
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 R% I- C4 i  k# u. eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! U( Z; C, K! N+ F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; N3 N9 R) ~0 y+ e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# c6 X- T& U) F3 o& x* S( \ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 s/ n3 `8 B; x6 s6 Afinding financing.9 K- u% N- i2 |! b! P* \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# A9 R' ]2 n; |
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 s2 |5 G# v8 J# h6 v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ U4 k0 q: Z  B3 C) v8 C( m  \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  Q2 q0 Z$ `; F; {/ cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* F; U: n$ F1 |8 ]1 ^2 e* dbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 h, Y8 M  x0 z1 _  s European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 S  J- c. ?2 a* T& C( g; T7 Otoday.
4 z5 r0 X" p* P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- w) C' b6 B2 N( `. r1 t; i, _0 U
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, y! X2 x) D% L- B Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% U+ M: ]6 t' J* Sthe Greek default.: Y! [% V/ }5 P# p# K2 z6 Q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
; i. T  p% ?/ z9 I+ j6 H8 S1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ g  n- o' V3 X0 f( D5 x2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: V' Y* Y  e& l
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* D2 e( z0 j$ ]0 O4 `2 i+ ~% f3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- {5 s/ O- q  M: p0 A/ i
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 G7 E, M/ ~; {( o2 c/ X4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece4 w' m# t2 C5 S
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. T1 K( f! j( z3 C! t
but that was before Italy.9 w) c0 \) [# [
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  n/ R- J/ q* O  e  @: Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; o9 f% y; i) y; K7 I) L
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
/ b$ C7 S8 d1 U5 @3 s* L. T2 d$ |3 w; V6 {) i$ b: T, R
Conclusion
) M* E' v/ C$ |$ y( G/ f0 _' t' b- K  U We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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