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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 @5 u- l; {, u6 p, n/ z6 f* I: [

2 @6 \7 `6 ^0 E5 W' N1 e2 XMarket Commentary. i5 e2 R! V' W! B$ F+ O$ u# _9 c  `
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- F( C- z) j5 S& @1 F3 b, B
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, `, O' d: L) z6 A* l, Y7 }+ u
Signature Global Advisors. ^3 N% v1 i7 v- y+ g
/ T. h, C5 R' [5 p% l! F. E

4 F, O9 C6 J: D+ y) m+ G1 sBackground remarks* E) J. `/ S0 e
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  P, |3 \$ y4 x/ z' `5 T- `as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 ~! z6 P7 K7 @2 p
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, A& z' l+ d: v# jadjustments.
4 ^! k; t# M" Q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' o6 F% Z2 S- r8 Y* Z, h9 S9 W% G* X
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ v8 n$ q: Y7 J
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are! `) m/ n% W& R3 A( }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 L6 L+ b( M9 T' e8 M. I& F% h
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 @% i: l/ O2 w  L2 S  D/ K
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! Y% d0 _& Z1 I9 v Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 f- @0 ?( F9 m( t4 S
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 d! T  y& i8 I) T2 W7 t/ J: s1 i
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ |6 J% _! m( @: `( X Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# v& q: O; p9 F) Y+ G3 sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 r* `; O( t8 c4 k2 j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 j7 R; |$ O$ c4 S( b' {7 ]2 oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 q# V5 N8 ]" r5 d9 Z. Z/ |
impose liquidation values.
* _, _9 l' C% [& y( u In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( q5 u2 g3 W8 A1 y* j
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 c' u1 J/ w. q6 J
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. i& ~( X3 i9 a4 d/ x, Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
" Y9 t/ K9 S. `; a4 O1 R( a2 s9 k( u) ]2 ^. f
A look at credit markets
  s& a* Y) e: X, ?8 G: m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 y9 Z2 v: S) \% [September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* V& D/ U' ~* g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 b2 p' p. G# L# l5 i# y% B) P
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; j+ v, Z# {* g& I6 ^! fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) j: b$ }5 B8 c6 g: u. d
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 ]% }5 C) D& h9 [) Z) xCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) l& x  q( ~+ r+ N4 t. tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 d4 S' g' t; t4 w2 `+ f Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; H# B( }' g2 U" [6 S" M- Zfinding financing.
, ?6 y, d7 y3 q4 A) l Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 o" B  `3 }6 E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 s6 ~% k7 [  ?; R" Y/ d1 Q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ T. j( G" Q1 B- J* R: I. C" \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 d2 }4 B- m1 ]$ W- y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
% f  }5 l# O7 X! E8 a8 Z; Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., r* m! K$ n9 n8 _+ }( ]6 `* ~" M& M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% s$ V* b8 q% Gtoday.' K& h  _; A; v# Q# p$ t
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: }4 i' g/ K' i- P
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' ?: j- C( _2 m3 r$ _3 z8 @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 v1 O% P8 P# u* U6 m+ r. L( R# Ethe Greek default.2 ~" r. I# K, p! B' g
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
+ }7 V) m- y, a& s6 ?  V$ E1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 s" s6 p6 T! C+ ]5 i4 c- u
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' U7 @; A: ^  K' r0 `
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.7 ?2 s( C6 N" ?6 P
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& ^9 I/ B# l6 O& ?0 U1 ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 L; d2 B& U: c5 B8 H8 r' ~4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% w% I, ~" U. \+ j2 r
' ?" b2 [: f3 Y8 e
Beyond Greece
; Q' C4 a' \# M( [! c The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 K" M5 e! @6 j, R3 q* k$ |
but that was before Italy.# }- G& s- u& `) K# u& d
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  B& m8 _6 ~$ l- w
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 I  Q! s! w; e
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
% x6 f3 N7 S" |1 C
; P' O& q% z2 q  s) V' b) mConclusion
$ `2 v9 _6 b0 n$ {- u  w0 I We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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