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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ z4 Y) ]2 s, H& v  m

6 h% M5 K! G) G7 m; q# FMarket Commentary
6 _! R' f* {; {8 DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) S% n% I( G* F/ C0 L& bJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& ?5 _' M: ~' d% B$ j2 i
Signature Global Advisors9 D' ?0 s9 z* k8 r  `9 f

% d1 M) E5 G2 v# A# F9 f  e+ Y- r. x2 G, g
Background remarks2 Q) s" ?& u- _  c
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) |  p% X+ j: _
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- z0 T; n+ e' ^( ^# Q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. e  q6 |6 B# b' s4 `adjustments.
4 D! S4 i/ `5 H4 E This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( W- K. c- a  l& v& {4 T* l! X: a
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.4 R6 U9 K: V; H& X- H1 b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are! Y$ Y' A- x1 A. c6 R
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 w, a5 H: K2 L+ E' r We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ s8 j2 l$ Q% j( s5 R
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) h# ]7 d7 B" S" p" U: q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
, X& O% r/ f5 C5 \# X, Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 i) N  B& Z) K& D% M( p% t9 V) m
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ N. _9 B0 E! Y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& d% i+ Z9 \# a. O  B5 `& I
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 q- E. n: F9 m& V: |# ]) e) N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 m1 @, M' |  ~# _9 N5 }9 p- N; vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* U" K  [, Y$ e  M7 C6 U
impose liquidation values.
) Y3 D: M% D. A0 U# m" \# {% M In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! P% F  V6 w1 `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ X2 t3 b( d# _7 X( D- w$ R& N- _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 I0 t1 b. E1 g
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 I& h: |9 ], }8 jA look at credit markets
! b$ [; n7 _2 b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ X& Z+ Y  p9 c3 [+ }% DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ c' v% ]1 U6 z, {- w) \0 g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 Y& j) {( j( d: ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ s, d, n9 g* N6 ^' H# i$ y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 y9 `# i# b1 [* Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: N' k# R( V& E  M5 t& bCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- S2 p+ V7 `4 [. S; S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  d9 d2 c, p, L9 z$ _* P9 ]* E: c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; ]5 l( U' A$ y5 P$ V$ ~finding financing.0 R7 P: k7 }  U8 u& B
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ O+ E" H. ]; G$ ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' c. I, R" H$ W6 j- j; n9 W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 i! T, K; t) {8 L, G5 Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% i9 K. P1 i2 e' {1 z8 S3 q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
' W$ `- k5 h5 y  _7 c7 ^, Jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: e; [" K8 }2 E" U- F8 K* h5 `* y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) _8 h7 `; N( e( I- g. n
today.
# Y5 Q% P; `7 R/ C( p6 j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) O' T* X8 H1 K& Y  hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- a9 X; U) `9 c8 c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 i' H2 X9 p# L5 N. D$ F: `the Greek default.1 ~# t* S; R* A4 p% y9 J# Q  V2 k: R
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' I5 f' a5 }: b0 u7 |% A
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 F9 O" r( j8 c2 C2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 ?3 M; w, _3 l/ Hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ [2 n/ }9 E& O. r, I* \! ?3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% M# Q' Q: B5 U5 dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 B! |5 V1 g& r3 Q' E
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
% T3 ]! i1 z2 v$ \) [
4 w+ K5 Q+ ~3 _4 OBeyond Greece
. q" \* L! t! f0 o$ n& M" x The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 b# Y: V2 L/ m
but that was before Italy.
: Y2 u1 r2 a  Y# T It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.5 u5 P5 ^3 _2 @, u: Q
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ O( Q8 s" p0 ~2 ^' j/ q' ^$ r- _) c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 P. U( _+ ]- l
3 y% M! M3 l7 p7 T+ W) ?
Conclusion& o, h  n1 u% V, V* G
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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