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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation) i1 _" V8 H5 ^" O( Y8 w' d9 T6 I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 S/ f; y$ `! Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ y" x' B2 p1 @/ ~% timpose liquidation values.- l- w8 y4 O- x$ w& N
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- s' X6 [& G2 _" v1 L0 |
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# \+ u2 G$ a# D
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! V0 O; e: U b: M0 E% O) Yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 U$ K3 b2 }. ~9 U+ C
6 e5 ?1 ^) c* L. v n AA look at credit markets2 C$ ^4 ]+ w4 B5 U
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* u' ~- k5 g$ Y. v! Q) n: \. jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 P- e* I+ l0 f# h) C& X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 s* j0 Y1 B2 K4 }+ C( x" othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 j( f& E+ d- E- b0 i* g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* U8 ~, D& O. F; m# Q8 I, W# Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 z$ ?/ r3 }2 h1 ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# n, [) W% g* F" f) j" H0 Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) B6 N4 o8 C/ T, T
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 ^+ P6 U: E6 M
finding financing.
* A& Y7 B8 c9 N3 b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 }) _$ l. _, q# S" |7 B# n* g4 g( X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; u5 \9 d5 w7 F8 x9 N3 k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ Z5 w$ e( L# `/ I4 ]9 g
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 U* G# H: j, w8 E9 qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# b, O' e; R4 Q7 b7 a# j, Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., [, f* i1 {# w7 {( p0 y2 d
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 X3 Z9 ^2 e o( D! ]' O, Atoday.
! U2 c+ V9 q; B( W& n$ ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* D+ a( W3 j8 ]- U- }9 k( b8 T
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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