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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。0 K4 d, x5 S- V0 f! K; ?: X
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Market Commentary
+ F0 G  ~# X) K; @" F4 N- ~3 BEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% R- K; `0 F/ Y2 W; E' ZJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 A  N9 _/ Y# j3 T# O, L  `6 f0 w- q2 sSignature Global Advisors% c2 A9 a, W4 T6 _0 W

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4 K3 U3 d6 i$ a: r& z' z) lBackground remarks
- B6 n# q" x% E; K! S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 U  a/ l" r& W, J+ fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 a; ]3 h1 J! O! |' o5 ] Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal1 Q8 v2 W* ^7 M9 S
adjustments.
4 i  t8 N1 m- J( S1 w This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, [- q% x- n7 G; i, A( ]safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; ^' Y% E' x$ z2 T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  d$ P% n) I$ y# alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% X: G1 ^( T8 q. ^+ p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ D3 N6 S! l% x: ?: R9 dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ D7 {8 P4 o( q9 Z7 ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* |, N% E1 ^& L* V/ C( ~; zquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.# i8 u; s$ B$ w# U9 J
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." p; u0 z, @6 q8 [+ K" b
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 m" T  q9 s8 B' i0 }$ [/ lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 x( S" j. f2 z( W' C$ I& b: t The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) s: u; N2 D0 y: ]
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 z1 w% v$ b- l& ~, I% Dimpose liquidation values.
; W: E6 V; s! c9 y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' t* b% P2 S9 B# B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 [' l' \6 @/ v! V( {+ u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* W9 y! M% x0 J3 N! r2 \4 j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( ]) O% G3 b7 s2 X
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A look at credit markets9 x; ?, J" z+ G  g  B% L. g5 s0 a2 T* }5 ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  S2 k, k* Q1 f! j7 R% C; h
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& I, d7 ?4 J; F
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 v- I3 k$ Q: d' `/ n9 y8 ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ y; x$ a& h( g2 b& v% X: _3 `, Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& T0 y, K; P, \/ s) u: q8 W& E4 G
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. o4 B1 K; {* b# [- {$ h& Y$ M! Y" |
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# K9 C6 ?) X( J9 m( {) \
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 H) u5 G' x3 V: Y8 ?- M Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% G' Q; s$ m; r8 F" \
finding financing./ w4 }( t0 {" o$ [0 @& S. q; ^
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they  d: D5 v7 Z) f7 V% R
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ a- N% s) t% t" ^- s
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; S/ O- `# Q+ y) A; R  Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 Y+ z) s: |* q/ J) y% zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 x) _; Z0 G& Y. K: ]$ W
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 |- L+ z; d$ T4 u: X! \" Q' M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 g) D- M0 n5 y; F0 S
today.
1 w6 U/ o! `* H, |6 i& g. O+ x' m Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: V, S, G. s1 f, @( }4 f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 ]; S# f3 Q7 b# }6 E" z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 P8 Q* Z& y, J/ y( L6 c) V
the Greek default.
# c6 d' f$ o. a/ e As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% A) S2 w3 N7 d
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! l0 p3 ?! Y1 F' `8 i2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ O) s% n, g6 n, q8 G1 Cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 ^! }! B+ u( i7 e; L! _, z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- ]" y% D/ A! m1 _  }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: ~, d7 R! s: x2 b0 R
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." B% E% L1 I* f* g% i) j% ^
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Beyond Greece+ S0 W- L5 A/ j& r+ e
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," z) H  U1 n' v( `8 S1 W
but that was before Italy.
" J) Z. [& `0 m2 }( A: ^" P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! `' q( Y( A5 I. j. X% P+ f( H$ ?
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# w, Z" Q/ g# s" m
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.) |6 U) U9 z# M/ H7 u1 R% x$ P" M) o

& A3 \% a+ d6 h8 P- N) S# LConclusion
, L7 F" F4 O2 A* _, l0 Y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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