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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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" A) u) b6 z& M& R/ d* k! j- e" f0 HMarket Commentary" A/ d1 |% p5 G
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 r4 i6 S0 H1 l2 Z& Y3 v9 ?, o/ cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( P! X9 W6 y; u
Signature Global Advisors( V2 J' A" F: C( q& Y
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) {2 \, w/ z& p- l5 q  L2 {- JBackground remarks
$ d) L1 s! A/ i( z. ^$ F( I7 m Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. g( i( p, _5 F4 M  V8 O! Q! z
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 ]; p; B- n7 d Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ g; k' e$ k. C6 C4 }# L( `adjustments.: K1 z7 h. V- s. o1 w
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. A, `: g* h3 i
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  U) o" s  G/ j
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are; [, s7 f8 l; K6 P
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ T- V& S: w5 Z# i4 U$ R- O
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 C8 ~; e8 v. j; F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 B$ P9 E! ~0 L
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% z: T% \! \2 Z! Y9 w: ^; }, equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 v! O" A/ o1 U# W
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. d5 L% {! n; C6 ]; o' _5 d Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( l2 ]  }0 f" w0 j* Nreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 R: i  H0 B5 ~$ M$ Y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 U) s& d# g+ Y& _+ g( D& s- Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ K: u# U8 g: k; @! d7 S8 x
impose liquidation values.: V8 k) [" ~5 e* l  o& F
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 t% H! D# T8 kAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ m2 C2 i- o  o
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 V! E- T0 J  z9 s
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets: D6 {8 ~. A9 p. j+ z" ~4 q6 o
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 q7 ~8 S# v+ k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' E$ `, Z9 X+ P  J0 T High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ m1 v% A' G% `/ s* \) u! f% M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; k& h( H& D5 g. R" v! f
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: m# a% e1 |0 O' R5 p4 @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' _6 @8 i' r# a, B% @) O
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 w( G" R3 h* l+ Xpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 R& D) Q' _6 ^7 S" ]' R: Y* H  k Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" p# y+ K8 R  w: e( |/ Ifinding financing.8 z; {) Y1 Y6 v3 l4 h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 @+ u* _/ c/ I1 t% b+ g5 g
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 w$ G% E1 `3 D Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: @! Q4 m: r7 b' q0 nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& `6 [8 V8 c& e: c4 G( ^" W
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# @' N5 F6 V- }; P* S. e% {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 v0 G$ N, J- `# i' ~, B1 i European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 b$ I6 O; _5 d: L, atoday.
. v3 `: h- k2 e$ W1 \ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ p7 _% P0 s% Q: Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda$ M' D' A$ a. o4 R$ A/ W2 |% g2 j& a4 K
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- O9 z& C- X8 w! B* [$ C
the Greek default.
3 R, K: K1 J! \- }- I! I: ^9 W2 P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, `* R* g. Y8 u& a# Q; B1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: q1 V; a$ F( x- @) \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% K  Y0 g! x7 G" E* o+ t" jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.% K# v" V) V3 O/ s# X# N, \/ r
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 F. x( ?  L. q. C" k6 H3 l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  E3 S9 c3 V: y. H1 d9 c4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  _2 T  g0 r: ~1 K' b8 G

0 S! W# K; O3 ?( }/ S7 z' X9 cBeyond Greece: g  r  A( i8 D8 J, O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ k5 q( B, m/ C! pbut that was before Italy.
, P7 I. `: ]; ` It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 F$ c4 I. {, H- J# k+ c
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 v; H/ P" ?+ ?6 B, i4 R5 a
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
8 d3 t( B9 I  B% _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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