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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
# M, N, F- f3 P: W9 H6 b% K. Y7 c! g; v1 _
Market Commentary! P/ V! {  b( \/ Q! Z# F
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* E6 H# x1 X4 f$ \
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' C' e1 u- x) ~. D1 E+ gSignature Global Advisors
* v( ~" M, b, \4 y; ^+ f5 g6 K/ U$ T( T4 R6 A

6 U1 G- I# e) }/ T4 XBackground remarks* ]5 a( [# [! q% L$ V
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! @0 i) b- E) r" i9 j% P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% Y5 G7 T$ R0 R. R( B" X" } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 P# O7 a7 f8 ^$ K- Dadjustments.
+ E& f, h( E3 b' y4 y  Q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) `, D$ Q8 j( F( `safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% f1 J% s$ R: H; B& } Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* B/ @7 E% `9 H- K$ V3 ^2 `3 v
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% V9 f4 ^; U# L6 l/ _) O5 T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ ?$ x( p" K2 `3 C, R$ C0 `
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage., e: ~7 l# M; V! R" Z$ f/ J* y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
) _) j1 ~7 t5 r% h( l1 _8 Lquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 H5 P# t4 G$ a* E8 _4 |) x Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 V- t, _3 r' [) @% v4 I, l Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# Y$ D& Q: J1 ?3 B; i" F2 Q* J
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
# {8 J9 M' z7 s5 h; l& A The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! a. |: L! v( K8 i0 j8 f* U; y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; ]$ Y' R3 S  V: e% J
impose liquidation values.1 [- R7 {2 y3 K: [6 j3 u
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! t9 d) f2 S3 g1 _! h" i# g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  e, x; m' g& g$ j: W" \! b6 l6 P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# D. Z# v: B9 O+ C& p7 x2 R  d* i
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
. b8 ?/ o6 D0 f  e' J) d% t
+ m% s+ h: M- }( t5 _A look at credit markets
3 T7 ~2 \0 w9 b* x Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 v+ \- O" t& mSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 \, X8 s; f8 X2 O0 c' h5 z0 r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) Q$ `' o  J. n4 Z8 g5 K- Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ k$ m& L% k' J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 I3 p& Z4 b. G) k, U
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 C7 Q- L  f: i. t' O. [  [. ICCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) _/ I1 ^) N: o, |positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ a1 H5 z! q) `, G/ D( H Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" m5 Y3 e1 V  `
finding financing.
, v) B0 x* V; H$ [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& W, B8 t/ p, d) Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  {* F4 n1 d! y" {& l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* G: w: P" X0 }
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ j, o, \- b8 J* p; w( Q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- q9 d0 K/ p! D4 e. ^3 Wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) T. }% {1 v8 S1 P European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 N/ B7 p, J. g: O& r) Xtoday.
2 C' K- y" r; G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 l$ `* z1 `2 u" f% t0 u4 ?6 {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 N# o4 ]% R2 R
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% d' y" Y! A5 s. B8 s- }0 V
the Greek default.# U7 G1 u" H* C
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 _* p4 M( U3 h2 _3 q8 H3 Z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! T5 Q2 k. x) c, w9 k# t" i$ j2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& C+ z% |+ Y: e. m# R
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 l( M3 h0 D' k+ s
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" G/ f- J* ?" M0 t3 X2 v" _( M; _# Dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& m; W) @# @. K9 b0 G" ^. M1 w" o
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! v1 A  m) F( W3 @: |
' M; v& p4 ^+ ^7 k$ B" L8 n
Beyond Greece
! W; Q% W! k! m% V0 ?, V, r# \ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) u( q0 I/ X& C" e
but that was before Italy.6 b0 z7 Y3 K8 V' J" f" [
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  Z% U, q) Z9 q1 L! Z& j% L- X+ z; ^; Y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 k- N# F) c! c+ d* S# U! `Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  E( K- q- E. d4 `* W

" _2 e% t" l* s6 {  l7 IConclusion
2 {  P! u; v9 R( R! R5 ?4 _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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