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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: {, t# e  s* W# i
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Market Commentary0 }3 J* S# D- \, n4 ]! f0 T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ I# I. F5 W+ j: F2 \
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* l% a* Q! ]% h: H8 \8 O1 u
Signature Global Advisors8 L' ]) z  R/ ^( @

! M8 Y: W% G' V6 ?1 q3 C" C3 B7 F4 A" k
Background remarks
! G; |9 X; l. f2 Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 X  s# L& k! oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 t& i$ ~6 z3 j1 u) X Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- Q; ^. b$ e, ^" s  m: w+ a8 u
adjustments.2 ]- i: Q, j6 v) T. M' q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, R  O; f3 R# d1 L! J3 i: ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 Z  T/ i3 I7 Y Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 \# e5 H8 Y" t# z* mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 q3 c  q$ }0 s We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ c2 E5 c0 F7 |3 s( \* Q, \0 iadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 g7 x8 x9 M) o Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 f2 Z% c$ O6 Y$ g5 `
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 G0 H- T' L5 L
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* h+ |0 n+ O  r6 P
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 C9 ~$ k: e' g3 y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ W, R& E! a! z. y/ m The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ V7 E+ z5 w8 r1 L. C* C
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) x  U1 Z& G2 j' U& `& e, k1 jimpose liquidation values.
8 ^, g) u% v4 s1 G6 r9 d4 K In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) m7 u, r) \0 _- I  B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 D, I; Z! |. \3 u  O% u' P# d The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. }$ ^3 [& D9 ~' }! P+ L3 c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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7 t/ ?. i& a! w& v. QA look at credit markets
& U$ I1 `+ y( Q; u. h/ O Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 w  t8 o# r- R* T% k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  p) H  n/ X2 }+ F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ J& l7 }6 h& y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: V  @0 D* h% O3 q- ]% `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ V- G7 z3 O& t# f9 ~( Z$ U
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) q' v, g% d3 S; j: j- N" I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. Q5 B8 z: K/ Z8 k" w, d  Zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- H0 [. d9 v3 Z) K1 | Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 Q5 O- F' ^' {# f8 h% ^
finding financing.3 B/ I# U8 A3 V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. E4 y0 d. Z4 ^, p! x" A
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; T7 E6 G; p& b* w6 i0 R; m Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 e. u2 Y4 G4 d: Z% {  z. Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ N  r5 O, k2 bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# e/ d+ s( D- [# [0 \0 Q! S* hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 p2 P; I4 G# y0 _1 n9 y% k European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- V2 _, ^* v- w4 v3 l
today.
7 U- m9 c  r. t" G) J- p  n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 m5 u6 A$ E& G  _; `
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
8 g# B4 a4 E+ n) _/ v+ j Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 s5 X1 Q# l$ \  N7 b  |" ~the Greek default.
) g$ _" G( `% C: G As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" f% H& a9 ^( Z( M: ], L1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  b, H- w" j% Q: W
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 c5 x  e& [9 Y# L! u) Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# a: C6 P4 _9 `+ m
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ A& T* H* ~0 q  K5 Tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years) \+ i4 c' ^" K; ~& i8 n
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece. Q' {2 k5 \9 y/ o: Y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 W# s1 T4 p9 ]3 jbut that was before Italy.
+ |3 D2 N( E% z1 b It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ m  G$ ^' g0 X2 n8 `, B9 N! { It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; m* N- m+ B& V# X6 A+ z: G9 P! Y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ f# m6 U' H% t  r! f

, U3 K. I- }* VConclusion
( f* |6 h9 H+ a& M& ^% y8 A3 x/ { We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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