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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
( c. G. _. ]) p' e4 d& {, j) W# o. w( J( g& t' [
Market Commentary4 q/ ^( z& C& ]: K0 y9 ]) K% s% e
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) e4 Z& m+ \; r# e& W9 W1 LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 Y: B% ?1 r( K% U$ j# }  X
Signature Global Advisors9 f- K1 b+ y0 f- l  M4 {/ A' R

2 X; W; H# G7 V' A* v6 A" M
' m4 c6 R- v1 h2 @0 hBackground remarks
: Q( b  I1 E* \; x. f8 [4 r* n Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 U! w0 i- T* Y' s8 D. Qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
( s. `+ n1 t6 u: K) e! Y$ M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 Q7 ]) R  N. `* }adjustments.
- i2 h4 _" M& ?; G! [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; L. p" h( o; {% _& M& ?safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: K( g6 |: O+ @4 u
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) t# q1 G3 O6 k0 ^4 G% w: g1 rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 Q: E& g) ]1 S2 ~+ B( L" a We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 w: \0 O9 G; D
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. j- h2 T- A, Y- i. `1 n. ?4 ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s+ Z. [1 b+ @. [6 r- g) R
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; G0 x  \% j$ t% A) a
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 w% [% F! h7 m* Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 `  d; P  x2 d! N- E% X6 o* R
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! P3 L3 G# `+ L" ?( W+ r* U( z* H! q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, U& D+ {: i. e+ c8 I' p
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- K! H8 U6 n7 L3 B8 ?impose liquidation values.3 F, u6 w6 t' s( I' Y: x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 R2 Z6 K. F- M4 ^, a0 u: V
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* f# y+ ?$ @, {/ T* S4 I( H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" g9 }" A" q! [# `% o) [
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
/ Q1 [7 S; `  w% J4 i$ }9 z( ]6 d  O2 Y
A look at credit markets0 O/ a6 _# X+ s4 d/ t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ o' U+ i) F+ j: p' A( O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." f: t; u8 V, Y# M; z7 n3 s
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. K+ }: K) h3 V
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# \) q. }0 [  @: I2 abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ v% B* x/ G# P4 P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 \( l$ w" k8 f
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" K8 C: h1 \4 ], a" O/ i0 w/ b- vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 c9 b6 J8 J* ? Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 P- m+ [2 `" ]% }$ W4 Y: Hfinding financing.& M  @5 O0 F& O+ `6 c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 t+ m& l- `% u# E, W$ g- p6 Y1 lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 H- Y% S5 U& Z- s/ ?: X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 q: d3 z- }7 {% Y) f
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. ~5 r1 d! M2 P, r1 \# _" I2 M
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' v9 K* O6 A9 i8 D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* w. W7 A1 e1 E$ {9 ?) ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& }0 {6 L/ a. J$ Otoday.
+ b4 f6 K/ W) U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& n3 ?: p7 `& }# `emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 [. t" X9 V) ?! c
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 T9 c' A* ^+ r7 C3 g$ b% Y/ k( g6 cthe Greek default.
( N5 O& k6 S+ a7 ?0 O, v5 A9 s- |: i As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ k; R, }6 J6 g4 A" s1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ W5 I7 |# J/ U: m
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 K& `2 j/ ?& s- E, _7 w4 A+ U0 hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.' M/ m* i8 N8 C% C. _
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; D- f4 a2 `' q2 \" F5 G) {banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
! u8 N& a/ @  u8 E2 `; A7 H4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 {/ X4 a' z+ \) z- n
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Beyond Greece# F. {" m& j+ ?: {. k7 a# K* j
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( Y' K, l* A4 k/ r+ S6 Ybut that was before Italy.
- F0 N- T& `  f9 h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ [  |. i: H6 z. x7 t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ ~  `' c- d9 v6 \  @  Q& ~. ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 y4 E5 P! g+ v: J$ Y2 |% W3 S1 p- b

: @+ L! S) U# u6 j3 J) a9 FConclusion
' B! p' o6 d7 A1 n; @# L" I We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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