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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' q2 @& _- b$ Z" R/ O9 t

4 u- O# J9 j  H5 [Market Commentary# ~; ?+ ?! y# x
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ U5 y6 n& o2 o, u. ?7 U& H
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' V" F% W4 u9 g- r- bSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
; X& C6 n" R8 q, c Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ T' o. m/ @6 |0 @9 o* K7 E, r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& Q1 |, i5 z' U2 I
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ q' `4 X9 F7 J4 L6 k6 M. Sadjustments.# v/ Q$ f) G9 _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# l7 z0 @  I. i+ z. X/ T2 ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 s/ I3 s$ A5 \' c, N: R Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- ^( d* Z  Y# d; n# r7 n! [/ Blessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ X. p- U  b5 d+ ~4 z; Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) O- }" A% G% `( h0 [' b
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ Z3 v* V" l& R6 ]5 p& B0 \
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 \8 `$ ]& k: Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 r3 A& s: o. s0 m0 j* X, r% K6 T( i Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.4 w! u* O7 O, p2 `5 y+ k( x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; H* z; m3 Q) h) r% ?# Z0 ^6 {reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
. @6 f/ o" `  h+ x The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 g( W: S7 h$ ?' p2 @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 G' Y. Z- v) ~0 j
impose liquidation values.
* y, s/ q1 {  {- S) R* n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# j9 |" x$ v8 S5 W5 f" r; ?( m3 U
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  i, h" m- l) {: J3 [' {; \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 w4 C3 x+ g' Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. U# e% i0 N) G2 A" h2 @
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A look at credit markets
; T7 j6 h  \( ?6 Q5 B Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 g9 H# l' b$ C4 e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* L: N+ R+ C7 o2 J$ A+ e High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. b' S" e! K: J# Y% b  l* w) v- fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1  X( |% ^% _! ?4 O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 s' j* ~+ C/ F. G% @; w# N
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) \; y1 q" m$ N  S2 @( iCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! x6 U  n6 S, n* C3 ]( z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 e( S5 c2 l2 q4 A+ X% R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% M1 z4 ]2 W0 K0 ~: M
finding financing.  j1 D) R) x) ^2 j& s' C3 }2 z! |
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 k0 N8 E( |7 ^3 N' Hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% r, {6 g6 l' T4 P& K/ Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) S) o$ a( ~% @7 W. y2 o
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  _  o! q* g1 x( n2 r7 N) K0 cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- X# Q0 f1 [4 _% Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. }. h4 n3 u% B7 H' f* D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 @  M. V+ c+ u7 `: @2 v/ B" y
today.
9 s  F, K8 G" R Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 o+ B# V% u; C; k+ `: O9 O; t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 v% g- G7 ]; { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% U! L6 R# s! g* }4 V7 S
the Greek default.# \7 O/ C3 G8 _9 Y  y  d7 h
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" ?7 Q: e# {: h' a- X, ?4 X1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 g! |' [5 p) h2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 Q  w  i0 B6 D
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 q4 Z# c3 n5 t" @) \
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing0 F/ P' i1 }6 {4 |  N- p
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 k: ^" B: o) v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! r' o- e) z4 ~" A4 p, z* F

, V3 X# A  o5 E. H+ J( f8 vBeyond Greece6 ?' c5 y1 `: a8 q! I# W
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ N7 }( l3 V2 T6 Zbut that was before Italy.1 K1 e& z: j; J. f0 X- C1 Q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! J$ p( I4 F1 W
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. d: e3 N5 [, B( Z- I1 }" F* t
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; H; Z5 T9 g, ?2 d1 n: U0 H7 {" l
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Conclusion2 C6 O% x- ~7 H0 n# z% B  C6 J
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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