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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& p) m+ ^* U4 q1 o& n
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Market Commentary
) Z' c* ^( A, \/ @2 ]Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, X0 A3 H, J' Z7 i. mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 q# D8 d% K1 `  v4 l; D6 L
Signature Global Advisors0 n' z, W2 G) ^! G/ L: |

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: l8 q$ J# ]2 @: W3 T2 ZBackground remarks/ }# [. t! T  e7 j  m) B+ k
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 P- d3 ~  O* m0 v7 H4 m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, x5 G& m# y) ^- N4 r Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
1 X+ q1 ^1 p$ e# m( _0 [: Ladjustments.
' a7 a( {' d7 d4 M! M This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 E. K, Q9 ~4 _# K; H6 Jsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ u# X0 T/ m! ]9 `' H7 w$ ]6 q' P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; s! K9 n+ w' l& Clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 `0 [) }7 A* r" I
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 P5 F5 x9 A% Q/ W) W0 v+ Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ n! H2 M2 g0 ?9 a5 W6 F+ ]& u7 |; e
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. ~* C8 T6 i2 s) Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ z. g& C% f! j# G
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 |1 }# f$ b- u% |6 t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 }+ l3 n5 s) `% S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation7 I- U  U3 ?% r- P. p5 g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 N/ P, ?! C! w! F2 I- Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! a& m  [% ?* E* R' v4 P5 a8 f- L
impose liquidation values.9 h% R0 z$ v' a$ D/ {( g
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 i' j4 n# a+ E/ H* Y% e) O5 |0 Z8 gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ i' s) `9 C4 `' ]6 G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! F  s* I- y" }8 f3 ?: r0 A
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 o4 o# d# M: K+ I( {* A% k% ?

* W% b8 L  M, a9 b" P5 g% ZA look at credit markets" u2 b  I7 Y! l' h. o$ @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 {) }* N8 N  {. Y2 a& ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; w4 Y: x7 C* O8 I. \2 W High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ n  B+ R9 k& L7 ~# U, g7 Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 R/ {5 M( F, y3 T2 I( I, |+ j5 rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 S+ Z' u# J  J7 i4 oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ Y& P8 g* M/ @" u* D7 fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 l+ S+ @9 _! ?' j+ M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) a. @- b1 p" @6 h! B, M Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# F8 b- T, I0 c! u. qfinding financing.
9 K* j+ d- ]- S- J( S; x Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
- S/ m! h' ?& Swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 C6 `8 H& Y" O& V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" ~: @8 f# S/ M1 l7 {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were6 Z# C/ k! g2 M: @  X9 q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- T( c' ~( J  w3 v& O9 ~: [6 y6 F9 Y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 X& L( T7 h/ \4 y  W  z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 b: @$ b0 p5 h4 r' }6 i- ^today.9 n9 J( h2 U" W$ }4 h: x0 B7 ]( F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( e9 `6 O+ f0 f) E
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, y& `, A. \6 N8 c2 { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! V! F5 B) Q$ X) x2 qthe Greek default.
0 I+ A7 a! S! m; Z5 F% |5 i4 ]7 S5 B As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:0 z( c1 x7 P; [/ K( V$ f8 W
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default' N. J( y6 H  P5 O8 t8 _1 A
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& _# S; R' \& }. W& \) r( Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 W/ L) I' L3 h# T# t7 w5 w5 Y, @
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; F# i% Y' m+ H! ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. n  ]3 i+ f8 w7 g* s" N3 S8 G
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece5 x$ z; x% f& W* D4 }
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# V0 U  n" v' H# L
but that was before Italy.
7 u) {9 k3 T# E  ]$ M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: p: Q6 [; W2 `" F; r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; S: m! O, c& @Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
* R" w) B9 _. X9 \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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