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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. w5 }4 i# J# L: t
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Market Commentary
: Q4 l, e2 e! B, G; V: E9 [Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' [8 J- [& D% u$ m& P- g- S
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 Z1 l! @" a# A
Signature Global Advisors
8 U% o. I9 @( t: u/ P. W1 d/ e" O. R: F: [$ z

% y- p$ [" V4 x2 uBackground remarks
4 w* a! T, s1 \0 N Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" a  [) `3 f5 U( aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. i' j( D# N2 Q# _$ D; f Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  o& ]# X1 H: m) c1 @9 v) p
adjustments.# J) W% b" H3 H6 a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 X8 {8 B! R& S% t0 L' e$ M
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 t# C* f* t: f1 s Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 v6 Y9 D, z. ~4 D% _
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& m, ]5 w: A( ^$ D& l- K: b
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& _5 S# `* w9 d, t$ U& W. `! Cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% b1 V3 Y. L  {/ v: T( ?$ @ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! u8 J% u- k1 N/ c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 P7 A/ G3 A2 l+ K" w0 y' E, ?( Y, Q
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& ~" ^8 }& l1 _# {$ q; }, l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 f' H+ H' D7 Z. ~4 o  C1 breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; M) [0 H8 y% V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& x7 a  @$ t1 B: e9 Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 e, l& \9 u* zimpose liquidation values.
6 T- \, M( Y" t5 }' E! h* e In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- u$ \! B9 n" r) Y$ b
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 h7 m$ W5 e; ~2 @" [& M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ `. }/ V% N- [
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
: d) W  a' Y/ P/ {- k+ i6 Y  T' z4 N/ t1 J# V( a
A look at credit markets
* c: C1 [9 {5 V; D" p Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, z% }1 ^5 h& Z9 l9 k, s
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: ]; \6 C/ c3 O. e( E  U  N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 v# t& x' D4 U6 i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! G6 W1 E" L( K1 A, o- K( u& _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 C4 C% f1 n/ U' Z+ Q# faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 _/ c* [' o/ K9 DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- q8 S" r# Y+ m/ t* T: s7 Y; g
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ @  l7 R# w/ Z. q% \2 o" j( ?6 \ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; h, S) H) e7 c. a$ i3 g
finding financing., ?. i' s$ b! g- Y, k2 Q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. W; e' B: a, M4 B7 G: ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. I7 p  V9 D, J: Q1 A  l8 q0 X9 H Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. e( ?) M7 i1 S: m/ K- L8 L; C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; }8 _; o4 f% @) J+ V' ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ S( j+ {  K( b- R8 o. A0 bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( p: l0 f' ~: o2 d7 F( n
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 W% b, s, v5 B: J2 ]) A2 t" `) n& Ntoday.) g( O. C6 z, Z  K  q3 B* V0 \' |
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* H! ~2 G6 m6 q' @. I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ z2 @% B5 x$ v/ s- o4 O
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 B  e  M; c* Y& Zthe Greek default.
. @' r, c. }4 [1 p# Y2 b! b As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 O8 U6 |: ^0 v$ N: |, `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: j3 ?5 M1 ?. |; m9 q( b
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  t( O( J+ h! W& I$ M+ Kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* ]7 E+ k: T, A4 r+ ~3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% P9 M2 m  {- {5 E' ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 n$ Q* p; N, H) `. a% s4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' ]0 H' x, t! ?6 U

# a: m8 n: z* o9 @  r) N+ dBeyond Greece+ ]+ ~1 ?9 H  W7 P: C6 X
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( j+ K- b$ w0 L. z- V2 X6 Ubut that was before Italy.
, I; B) a1 w5 \/ H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ n' R+ }$ y& R
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- v, M% `! Y* Q) W' ~
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 L! y1 d$ _( T/ A

  k8 L7 ^7 }+ N& f  {- I8 VConclusion8 o' x, W/ A- V( n# x
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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