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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: h0 R7 q* N$ k0 z, s8 G" Z
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Market Commentary$ G" `  {9 O! s5 e
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ y) @7 k: E" N3 E' J
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 ?8 J9 `$ q4 I: B: o
Signature Global Advisors  \/ M/ R/ K. ^* v; B
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Background remarks
( K# a( E5 _0 Z: Y, d8 u/ S9 {; p. L Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are* ]; J% _  r8 e5 Q! B0 R
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. G: V6 n* d: p$ r2 ^- K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 j6 y! ^4 V  l& @) }% d% g
adjustments.3 C& G. u: X* z; F7 M8 }- a) L
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( b6 Y+ r3 A1 t. U' \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  [9 p/ E6 o0 T7 }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are+ c- h: d0 E2 S+ k7 M9 q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) J5 g& y6 H! r0 m9 p2 _9 [/ Q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" f. l! e! q& I. u3 `# y0 wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 k) @" Z3 h6 } Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" Y) V5 M$ a) u  Q, V
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" O' d" w7 c& v# W Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- @8 b2 i, `( ?) r6 R7 X2 {+ P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 o& A! J; U; Z5 a6 N5 O: h* Xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' I' g; b3 r* [3 o& j6 O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 z7 ~6 e9 h0 c, F4 E- Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. f8 g: \/ k4 r: n1 B
impose liquidation values.* u) m# F) k; J  [- r" P- V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- N- L- [6 M, u$ b1 `8 z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; }4 m0 Q! Z3 I3 e% t1 M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 C" }  f! p; n  T) X: m9 Fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ O& p5 ?+ E, X1 y4 A6 C

4 D& x$ q! F% v* V* Y, z: OA look at credit markets
" O' f5 h& Y  j% }7 y# o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( {: I7 n# S: ~3 z" D6 h" k+ T4 v8 USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 J2 [+ y' Z7 ~/ t; X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; w+ `. _! W! ]0 h) _& {
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 _" o) a% v# Y' v( `billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ j2 Q1 f! r( t; [5 Saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ N0 B' q- Z0 w1 }" r  j& ]' h, Q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! V! B% }% ?3 B4 l( t9 l0 X. C- ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& B' {# M0 [% E/ x
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" c: L# Z+ k4 E3 X. gfinding financing.
# z, ?' m2 j. B( a% W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 \/ E6 B5 }( D  B3 O) k6 _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* ~8 }, r) {: J! j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* G" C/ t; G. M7 K2 _6 x+ Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 m: n( w. a9 Jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 v) R+ B& p/ C, ^4 `6 v$ G3 N4 w
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 s# @, N9 y# J8 r5 g; d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" |2 b: |# L  c' u4 G2 R( ^- M4 w
today.
- g; D) F6 \4 s+ I; C$ P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 u, H0 ]# I9 {9 v* L
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ M' ?1 w' C! g$ v2 R; c) @3 O. ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 ~) P0 e' l3 D/ Fthe Greek default.0 z  O8 `, S& d/ r; b2 N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" R+ L* m! G4 j% y! t" ?6 s1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ `* f$ N5 K! R$ {1 K: n. M
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 _% Y: o; H( e
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& U7 P/ D' |9 x7 ?% S3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% _1 n! z' E( T1 C/ s) `5 M! C' Q4 D- \
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  u' P* |- x7 j  J0 U4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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* C' L6 r9 P1 ?8 HBeyond Greece& T3 Z) q9 L+ `, U$ x
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 D9 \8 ^( I' @- z+ ]but that was before Italy.4 L3 l( I/ ]0 p. t+ t& Y# m0 R4 a  s
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 J$ F9 i0 L/ ~ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the6 W7 O/ o- U  D5 C9 R
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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