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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation. H6 |/ R. Y6 Z4 Y- u# y/ M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; z1 ?) |; G# y4 Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* a7 {! o- I* u0 C3 [, x
impose liquidation values.4 m+ \. e' _0 E7 ]
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- Y" s5 J. E* h0 {0 q" s8 I8 yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 k) [/ v+ H% ^- `/ r% M; h The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; u+ |0 Q5 E2 X3 ]# Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets$ f: C$ M, Q9 p* s4 E3 R/ Y2 i
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; X% f( F: b* j2 |
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) ~8 E; X: b& ^ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. K( V8 F% k2 d0 n. S& i- Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 C$ b8 T' d$ D% w" Ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 Q! A, \" U8 p3 h# ~1 }" P0 L
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 ^6 c* ], K4 K
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: J3 i0 R2 d/ ]8 d1 B2 C e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! \# _4 d2 d% u0 p: I& K
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) E1 d, G3 @5 G; ]; b8 h, nfinding financing. a0 P4 W. L# E. D9 k/ Q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% p+ T( j; x: `, p' _) q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 a% Y; @( `2 @
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 l9 W2 T& ~3 Q% Q* Q1 i$ Q Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 f3 T: g, }' z C0 @+ ~% i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- J1 t; [% Z% m) T( C8 d
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! ]: m% K8 d$ F# M1 w/ Y- E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ ?3 X+ y6 _0 R9 x7 {8 l
today.
1 s9 Y( O' [/ G; h% y; \/ V( { Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 @& l/ k9 ^! W2 ~( g. |
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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