埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3960|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
3 P' q0 W, P; m3 @2 y3 U
+ h" }6 i2 S1 IMarket Commentary
, Z7 b+ i3 j+ G- V6 ], t! xEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- U5 D3 @6 m8 p4 j) W2 q
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 T7 ?/ v$ {9 H! N
Signature Global Advisors% W( a) ?9 B2 o. Y* [$ q* v: S

4 z, H9 w1 ?& E- `, j' V
% X4 \* _8 l+ ]0 ~! P2 }Background remarks
$ J# D$ M' r5 S" [ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 I, k, P% r; G" u
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 u0 b" v% t, x$ }4 |( j
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ K1 j; ]$ v9 O; B: z0 [: Wadjustments.
5 P7 e) O8 d0 L- d This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 U; k+ q& F: J" g
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# J% O; c& e- h4 n9 S Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are+ g  W; t& B( ]4 t3 b' g5 m, `1 S
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% i. p- U& R* P6 |' S6 H We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# D" {- J% ?4 l/ R; y3 `* Aadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; n8 G/ ]4 Z& @6 c, G Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: T3 s! N, }. @3 [1 Tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 z& B) r, g1 O& w& ?  o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 B, w/ n) }% M& {8 T* O# a
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* C2 B$ E5 `, e- t) o) O( q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ y3 Z9 w& p" F
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& Y1 J/ t. M- b4 Z+ @+ j( has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ N& d, V  [6 k2 _# g7 O, x/ S- d3 {
impose liquidation values.
5 a3 o- f& U& `7 r  m3 {8 U. R2 F; l In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; s+ s8 J  d; [" q7 e; gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. ?+ `; O) S, o1 V9 Y% _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; ]: ]/ X% V* g9 j# L: pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
$ n+ `; t5 \4 |, L0 {+ y. M6 F- ?- Q( t2 t1 \4 e! @& ~
A look at credit markets
4 l1 I4 Q6 N: ?  }7 \$ t& ^, b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% E0 F0 p9 N2 PSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ C) P7 T% g5 D  K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ M6 {3 t) T: L. n. h; b7 Zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: X' J2 N9 T/ V, n8 J/ ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. i1 t, C: U9 K) M  u! V" V& i
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! k! ?: l1 z  x; w: PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' o, N* U0 x/ ?  S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: R. C1 {  D) C; r! ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, u0 ~. O2 B( m# c+ i: o1 u
finding financing., ]& q+ a8 [* M$ c2 q2 g4 ]9 k0 h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- Z& U" W. a$ e6 W
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, k' I9 u/ \# i Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 `. D7 H0 n' _( u  v/ u
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" |8 J9 F% l4 S8 j. a
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& l7 o8 K. L- m- Q6 j0 f3 F& Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 _1 A4 Z; _) o& f& t9 D5 b European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- `8 {7 P9 g: g+ M2 y3 G
today.) E/ I4 V6 D& d1 ]* b
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( f" k( K: g8 a' A2 {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) ^8 e/ r/ N- T  y/ `: g* M6 x* ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: }- W5 N9 T3 s( U" L& ?the Greek default.
$ u' r6 p# G1 j, E3 v As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 y4 [0 z! P3 G8 C
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ u* O# I9 e5 z. E( H
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; @$ r5 A! q  H4 C" o  a9 \6 Adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  |" d6 r1 a! T+ g9 Q3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 {# ]  ]2 {( e* Q. d- ~banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 \. C; X7 h+ c# w0 \7 {4 R3 U
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
* U& g' Z# ^# D( U0 i/ V' A& K$ R- l% @, X5 o9 X0 {' |. J
Beyond Greece% a3 E; k, s1 O8 n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! z1 z0 u" W/ q
but that was before Italy.
' D  G! c2 e' e. ~+ E" y( y0 @ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& c5 S  x- B* @. a1 r- O. _% Y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* Q+ q# ~6 f( G4 F& k$ Z5 {  C+ _# t
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
" b' @, }/ q1 _; a$ ?9 V5 f( I4 p3 t2 o4 Q  {9 M4 s
Conclusion
. u% I9 Q& F: S We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-9-20 03:19 , Processed in 1.052621 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表