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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation/ Q0 l3 F9 E2 E: O4 p3 n3 D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 x7 I9 e# g. d# P# o
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 u$ {1 f% z* E2 B6 C
impose liquidation values.6 u# J3 }" S5 R5 R3 h- l! @
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ v7 _9 t. J* z! {+ |
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# x' @! M$ E. [( q# _9 Y! O; O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ F5 ? G% }3 R% k* F+ r( R9 @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( P4 M3 F/ }2 x+ ~! S
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A look at credit markets" `- p" ~! R2 e0 }/ X9 E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% V% _* |! o1 m$ Y8 xSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ i/ \1 E9 j. v2 s R* j K4 T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 Z/ F- U8 H; _$ U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ {# j6 F% t+ C( a1 u
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' \/ A0 p! w1 x* i$ a4 l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 P' ?7 A4 }6 i1 ]3 T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# a& b' { T! |* b+ I. U0 Q# g3 X
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& P0 I" s( e( H) A0 N7 V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ a. n$ N+ L4 b. P0 U& c- {; R% a
finding financing.6 o& Q' }( B; l4 S& B
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 f5 |2 c' H6 Q" B0 i0 A# Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) i+ c' E8 T/ o2 ]) A4 f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and0 |( U) k3 E7 w
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& q+ k E9 u: [ L" ~# Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
2 s- B2 f+ l0 W" q; l0 E3 xbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 q4 T3 O* F# V( H" Z7 @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! h/ {/ @+ ~. U9 u1 X1 o% F
today. G: Y ?# z G# c9 b
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 N0 B) M/ F: T
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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