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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. c7 b* b; |6 H/ h

+ N4 w* g  Z' P: \8 ^6 X* zMarket Commentary; W  L* ~0 {3 `% W, ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# ?  S! e' ~5 t2 I. B& ]% @/ [+ E9 q
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) Q1 V+ E8 l# A9 |: E8 c
Signature Global Advisors4 d: m! Q: V( l# o/ B: L( x

1 _. r. D$ d/ k; o
  }/ V' i) E! b2 gBackground remarks
6 ]1 T! T; f. H$ H" L! t6 f% n Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( W& ]8 \* ^/ H- cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# c+ B) u2 ]2 X+ g8 g) [
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 I# d) V, j9 _1 p! P2 u/ S) I- cadjustments.' e2 t7 `3 @8 E7 \3 [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. c% X6 Z% Y) c/ @
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  E* S1 t. L8 d, W  u
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* r7 \. ^! b! f* B! R2 i
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
7 q& n  ^9 l+ g  X. Z$ S- v* x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  E) X9 e. i9 o' uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 i+ r, E, j4 G0 i& g7 D: Y, o
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 x6 c6 c' R1 M8 U4 u9 L( ?: M
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( \+ G- u  `, h7 U Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) P7 m( v# i7 b- p4 q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 S& Q: F! ]$ A: o& y  x, ?! ^- T
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& R$ g3 `; p& q* g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 |6 K0 ~) @9 @5 e( ]4 tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 U% k/ _6 P0 \impose liquidation values.
) m6 \/ Y0 a$ G: m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ d4 w1 O. y" i( T) j3 IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  F( P! A% o( [' y! D& z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" K1 z9 e5 f: q* I, z' _: m8 z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 {8 J  b4 q3 G! y/ H
2 n2 R- G9 {0 w) v/ c
A look at credit markets
8 @" A, r( S3 D! [0 a. j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 Y8 t( q3 B4 H9 DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 }, j$ X& I4 A( c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ K5 J4 ]! ~* }/ |* O: R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& q0 }" b. C$ a8 p2 @billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; f" H! z+ I" q2 c, K% B, i+ N6 \. P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- ~' O7 X/ p( b4 `% M1 i7 KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" u5 y  Q9 L  _4 ~! ]4 |' V6 @5 I2 @positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. f! _" j. E7 S! c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 E& v, _' a$ ^, @+ k: M& o, I
finding financing.
) Q' Y/ g, K8 }  I) `  E6 N- b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ L& c: o5 I* {6 @4 \$ x
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., b2 c/ h2 z6 [5 ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 x: q- o& S6 J  n( b% x/ u
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were6 U# u; C  x2 H$ e! _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& e8 t9 W$ h: m$ n8 n6 m: g  T) Y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 _. z. L( ?! f# a
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 i: }+ U% c  h8 Wtoday.
; b, l' D% a& K; }+ Y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* a6 [$ y5 V8 B" \. ], B: Zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 t% `, {6 m( a+ f/ M8 \5 p! V# T
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
5 p, m! z+ z# V; x- d/ ]$ W& Y+ Gthe Greek default.* L8 u7 @: f" z5 S5 y5 J- |8 u
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: a* N  A0 o' |% f, C* Y  Y5 v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 E( M( [+ _$ b$ ^9 z- H
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: B5 F& j7 O4 w9 j( udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 u& ?9 Q3 g$ b+ ?- z2 }4 |$ c' H: y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ c- Z  N" H. i
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  E9 h5 z9 B& T7 _4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: c. e0 H9 B- R/ F; S
9 }' K3 O, j5 F/ n0 c9 }1 ?
Beyond Greece
( Y' |  a- y0 v% K The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" |: P2 @# ]0 F( J. ]5 Gbut that was before Italy.3 A( k$ v) v6 O5 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! }$ w, D6 o7 a
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 p. X3 M- C& C- E0 G! J! SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.1 {  W/ [" a* Y, s

3 M  r3 U) A+ R# r1 [* U7 pConclusion* u% @! @& b0 p
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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