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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
7 v, e! R$ S, F2 `
& p/ w" `9 s" HMarket Commentary
7 p# U5 f! C: g- W: d0 ?& ^' EEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" I2 n/ K1 f+ D7 i  H, j6 L
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) ]6 h8 g8 f. j0 P  k$ v
Signature Global Advisors
; L! a7 t* Z9 H5 a; ?) Q. i7 I
) s3 w/ @7 a; m. A% E. r/ s5 B6 t9 }) M" e9 G! S* K  P
Background remarks
* a- K* \# }' A9 C7 r: m Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 `7 I2 r: Z: Las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ ~1 G2 \* ^8 \# x, b6 S Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. }8 x9 U4 g% I( t2 p# L7 v6 |4 Gadjustments.4 _. t: P% y. _' s/ z" v# u5 {" x# v
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 ~( ^% Y5 W5 b9 d
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ O! t* E8 Z! X( e! e" o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( z+ ?! f9 V* e" w( zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: J8 n/ O8 g) a( T- P/ U We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 m5 ?) e% H/ {$ V- D. Xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- @& i+ h$ j7 C6 F4 x
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 ^- w6 X" Z9 [% L' _2 z* S2 kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 ~8 h0 V' b  ^0 V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 ~6 N- T1 {% H  Q; @5 ~% T
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
* o$ [" ^- f0 R; k3 l8 Freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 O* n. L" u6 p. z* Q* J2 R1 E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 X( Q* ]( A9 C+ Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 |1 f8 P1 E- R; P: l! K) i
impose liquidation values.
, U+ [" P. R8 P In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* L0 ?& Z- h7 d6 f3 j1 }' W2 lAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 A! w* ~- \3 x2 s' V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 J/ t. R3 T& E- Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets9 ~4 k4 F8 A# Y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 R1 @" p+ z' f0 l& E/ u. P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 ?, }1 o; }; X; F: @9 |. z1 y! G
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 Z: t0 y! Y0 ~8 L' p9 u: }
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; G! M6 A# @* E! s7 B9 U
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 J/ J) [% [/ q9 L
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# n1 K- `. H4 I1 }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* o9 J  R- z% z; a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% P& J9 o6 V. T4 t4 b3 c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# X+ A9 s" e/ n; |" ~2 O" ?6 Yfinding financing.( I# c9 T1 U: k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" k' |8 w% J3 `  K9 ~! e2 w% wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' L4 u, c, Q, b5 r4 g
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! X' c$ k* X; B6 gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. }  p& F) o9 t: w) l5 egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& Q  S3 M7 `* B/ W# }
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ X/ T, v0 b) h3 E' l1 P
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 C2 t, T: _4 a0 L1 I
today.% W: C: S. j% u6 V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  q; w0 s: b  g  f- C" zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( ^4 {4 @4 t% @- b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 q* F. E% M' ]the Greek default.$ x2 u& W7 {0 L0 e
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
; F  ~! L+ p/ {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# G: x  n1 V2 o& k0 |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ l5 a) D( O+ M& v! N6 Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 W4 D5 j' H; k* T! g7 l+ J
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; h9 X9 j0 O  C5 K: x/ j0 _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
& V, U+ o/ M0 x* H" f. L4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% O, o5 n5 C# m" g- e  h- ~0 p

5 G+ o( h# K% Z- f9 W3 ^: U$ BBeyond Greece
7 i$ G, I$ J# F9 D# G) d. |9 ? The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 v, A' B% A( f  R; x
but that was before Italy.
% u/ I/ X5 m$ W' r6 `$ A It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 L- J& j9 d2 y" Z9 q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% Z" A' e5 H/ y8 T& |6 XItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 q# l. ]0 x* a# [2 o
3 b, v+ F5 O0 P( K2 s
Conclusion! S( W: b( G* M+ d6 A( w
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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