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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
: B q0 U1 K6 t( o& W! D6 K5 A The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 {( k, W, S+ M5 Y, B+ z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! F R1 |8 z) c( v& kimpose liquidation values.
7 E. h8 k; r% R n0 Q7 v# y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 F" |! G8 J, {August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ }5 i M( r& \0 }6 v9 k9 \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; h6 f0 o$ T; y3 \9 ?( Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
. K2 K0 M8 }, w! S Q9 D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 y# ~- D$ ?/ Q9 `September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* T* F# q9 k0 u" I High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ @5 R$ A, l$ R& p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; e3 e) Y* n- V4 I9 t; ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& N; ^4 ?( O3 c6 T9 c. i/ Raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 }/ g1 B- x3 |$ v" K/ l
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! Y9 v& i) ^* ?4 g
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 `; S7 L- E& F& V$ z y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# f9 f* t1 q! E0 |2 p' Y( [$ N; Vfinding financing.
! {$ `$ w$ j1 ?) F5 E Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 @! B: m3 P8 i) w, ^3 a' \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( A4 H5 o, ] Y4 | Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 F2 W( W+ v, r7 }' R( E$ s" ^is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& ]( u: |. I, b. B1 O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. U8 A, p$ h2 E* H2 ~6 g
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place. b1 n0 _7 W. l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: p* i# W! L" U2 V% J4 M; otoday.
9 t T$ W- C- l( y2 G' A! l" b! d Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. n/ q _6 E1 S. k! T0 X8 G+ Lemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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