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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation$ Z/ a% j2 n0 e' o1 x2 n: ?- c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# `' F% f, P; @% ^/ J xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( S% t \3 o! a! C5 _, Rimpose liquidation values.
: A4 |; [0 u0 u# M* ?) V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) c5 i% f& _5 O* w
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& S8 Q7 v& Q* M% \, I1 Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 r2 C3 r: t: C% q% f
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! D4 f# f6 R& ], p
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A look at credit markets6 k- a% O: ~5 S
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 E. P+ u& H) O0 ]5 |8 Q9 k, _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
@8 `, }4 v" H: d; Q1 F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 ]) T1 S7 x; j+ ?* S" J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* w5 Q$ W8 A% o3 \6 Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' W" I: p: Z* ]9 @$ caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 }. p0 ]4 |: k8 |3 SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) g- ~+ y# U# n% S- {0 S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# } A/ s! I! F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. [' s3 V9 v: L
finding financing.: b* a, q: K- d, A" N9 x3 z1 L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 l2 q+ J U k* O4 nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% D% M: W$ s3 ~ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ f, ~5 \; w( n) P, B1 O! h6 Lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% q! t g! m3 x7 t6 {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) k" J; I- d a3 _bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 L6 P- T j" E, `2 R
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 ^; M; [1 p/ c) d7 {
today.
) j. s: @6 E6 k3 R# ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( `# W* h% p% D" y3 Y0 U
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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