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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
8 v, B3 q7 d8 H. oEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) m- `4 F* j* `3 E2 L- G
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 z$ q. J* U, N( q; y5 B+ ]+ LSignature Global Advisors; e  T7 c( O6 v3 s6 X# s, p) Z
  A9 d! i2 \" V: k0 S5 I

. P( ]0 c, L( j) BBackground remarks+ d2 W% G; V/ `7 V4 K; ?
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 u& s9 x% k0 m$ Z0 L. C3 d+ @as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' B% `) n1 ]+ ^' c/ u Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% a! w% C6 O2 ?2 z) U( |( D6 R" c
adjustments.8 O8 m  W( ]2 P0 S6 a) j8 j
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: G9 ?. I' Y- ~% V0 {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: u! r, x2 w. F% V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 U& `3 X/ W( [! m( L( E2 w1 ^6 c1 Ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& C8 T# p/ `4 M) E
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: G* R6 O- y2 _2 s8 i, @
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* L! z. s# ^5 J Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' d% Q. d3 k, Lquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 G5 B2 H% `, G; ^  C4 j Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; O2 x7 d$ j5 X; O6 T* ^" d Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' k# _' A# i6 t/ H) \" a  m0 preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. ]( j1 I' N$ v0 U, l) \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 ]) ]. H. V# D
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 P# F0 L$ Q0 Q5 v# Z
impose liquidation values.4 [" J% X# Z$ L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& n0 _1 ]2 y" }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" p' G5 [3 {2 \ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# [* I) x/ Q, Q+ S4 K, h- j6 A
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 ]/ f: V2 z# Q7 B7 |& C; O- ~

8 n4 }6 R  n. f8 s5 ], KA look at credit markets
$ I) A5 U9 l( x/ ?* w# U0 S7 M# Y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ L, `% j$ J% V1 \( R; A0 SSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( j. ]5 W! Z0 h; N! @* [ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 J! L4 w7 i) J* Lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% f  E4 _- V8 ]; K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ ?; T- ~3 S9 d0 Q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) |6 s# N# |. a% D/ y4 KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# j9 K4 P+ m9 {5 Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, y; o6 o0 r7 }1 q$ j2 C; m6 { Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 E! u4 j% h  e% S3 E8 q/ Xfinding financing.
5 ?+ q) U- u& d/ z& l7 F& ? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ `* W7 k0 E& U3 c5 E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! O" G9 T8 I$ `! g9 W2 e
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 I' f9 T% n9 u; G8 h. R& ^is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! M6 O' r  ]& w* A: w# K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 |5 D# m$ {. [8 f: |9 bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 z# _' O( S3 @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 e$ I" M2 y; q, u' I- K- Q  Gtoday.
3 w2 R5 ^8 C7 w- [6 F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 D6 y7 E5 o; u$ p' k9 w  d0 Oemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ P& ^1 b! l* l  v' g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 z$ H" w" f3 \$ {# Dthe Greek default.
% T4 ]6 g7 _/ `) I; b1 @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. A4 m% y! f2 Z( U3 w1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) P) X4 ^- o# ]* _2 P0 S  L
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" d, P& x5 x: {) P) d" Q' hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: x3 l* j! X/ E4 K. ?# W
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 l* h4 c" A: s+ j. k- l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years; E) g% Z) O: c
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., w$ x" J3 K! V9 `, M. z8 B
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Beyond Greece3 A' q8 j8 Y0 K9 s% D& u6 \, D
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" b+ W# ?+ L: |& x% p$ [but that was before Italy.
! t& C. S% r8 [$ E0 c" { It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ x, s7 Y0 f; s8 }1 p: g% ]
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ h; E% j9 T' ?. }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
$ f8 T* E4 h; H; i! p% h. p! j$ p; h We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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