 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
. |$ X* D5 P4 d% S& N8 S2 n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( E9 i1 O7 x& U% H. z0 }as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ w+ L, M$ v/ A7 n: q6 r9 p1 \
impose liquidation values.
4 f& v! k( ]$ N8 Y" ^5 h; G In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ c8 } b1 V9 u, @/ S0 l
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 t% N& @% ?4 z, e) p; N
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) K# }/ j$ c+ k: z' q6 n3 W: x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
# W; s% T+ s; b8 W4 d" T3 P/ `
8 h) w: T% ~4 w# RA look at credit markets
6 O7 ]& E# G/ F/ g, n8 U9 z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 N' J$ b' G, ]/ q$ E6 ZSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ }5 x, ?- m% F; T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 a; i* e m: p- I5 U2 q) D# Tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( K2 R, L# t4 O; c+ `! Q0 D
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% H B+ _& T% F3 }7 q3 L7 uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# }* U7 Z* H1 T2 F; j# r! ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# W( H" v2 s# u+ D Q$ ]' b/ opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& R: R% l- A& x3 v, n! x) u3 f7 K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 v3 t8 d! P% G7 ]) U2 v- nfinding financing.
- l; j$ J. w# h3 _, Q# r$ z, M3 r Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 D3 n/ r4 ~; | b# c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 N9 Z8 h* z1 f- m Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. A( Q/ y5 Q$ W3 e& J; {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; N/ V' e% s, e
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% o( p* u1 Q5 {
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' G7 Z! d8 Q5 E6 s- H! s, m European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: f9 K9 ~9 @& C! m% [" A1 s, Itoday.
' ^, W5 q; R6 X! o, z/ y9 v, b7 Q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. z) W% h# H5 f
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|