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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
* {9 s/ U! ~# a! Q' ~" y3 E3 N+ m; W" M, L2 Y; c
Market Commentary6 A6 j  h7 \: ?4 U& ^
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: _+ t* P+ X- [2 r9 G/ |, X
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 u: x1 m" @; c1 P' H  R$ f
Signature Global Advisors9 v. C3 G) Y  e7 h4 j
  L1 w" G" e$ Q, P# U& ]6 }3 @2 V8 h
+ B/ V1 |. ?. J  f
Background remarks# h! W% ~+ X2 t: j' ^
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 Q  J$ ]) {* ?8 ]as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 A$ u  y5 }$ ^ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; b: ]4 e$ K7 Yadjustments.
' K# r1 C$ z* p' Q( j0 c5 t. z/ q$ _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& I  f1 U* a. Z4 x7 X
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' Q1 b0 D1 `+ l# _
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 k. W5 p4 y& S. I2 J* ^3 ?
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 ^6 K; d, \9 u5 X' b. v# y% G
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: u  a# N5 o- M# \
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% Z/ N5 x" C- @
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' A0 c, v. [# w0 Squantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ O) s- N3 y' c) M4 c+ y) L8 _' a Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 t& s; |6 ~5 t! v/ T
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 d6 A# i* F; A1 n' Dreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 \, R( V, k" t, r$ \. q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ d4 ?2 ?% N& @) |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- z/ x/ {9 @3 h0 rimpose liquidation values.5 K/ P: l( j- {# y9 |9 H+ ?, _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# Y% d$ x/ H1 N  H) x% oAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& @9 L4 Y+ Q! ~
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ q  [; |8 ]+ u; G' Q+ G3 ^; A
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 A- i# W" c; e' R9 ^" ^, P

4 L/ k' ^! E: Y' o0 z% I+ G# y% P2 o3 zA look at credit markets0 K$ }' _+ M5 b/ X9 j
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) S8 t: \3 N8 N; F/ w* dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# M) m6 ]; w/ G
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
  D4 @$ y# ~' c" [9 `! h) P; vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& M7 n2 i7 s6 Y$ \; H8 [% i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 G; n% a/ r2 {& Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 A% `/ D4 d. I( m) ?# r: G
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 c/ ?: x6 Z# ~) `. O4 D$ `2 ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; A2 z  B/ }4 H: U( Y9 Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ _  e( \6 [6 R# a
finding financing.
' u) B5 w) T- e) l Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 \# x9 O0 h: {5 X( ~
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 x. c0 S) u7 @7 j' z8 \
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ y' D6 c3 Q+ A6 Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 e/ `. P0 x4 v/ l. o0 ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 b4 A+ b, b' v& y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 B6 {6 e/ h6 [/ ~& @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 D, @. D0 |$ x& _+ A
today.
' Q& r0 I1 R( H" y" Q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ z: ~& _9 ~$ B$ U3 R6 g0 Y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" V5 X; Y. D$ { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for" O6 T! K5 K1 F7 L" ?! q& }
the Greek default.. i, R, a  x, q* L# c7 \
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( O  e1 k+ U4 U6 d  X1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 }7 M8 S0 P3 m2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& I' p% H5 H' O: k; u2 D3 s- Tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: a" v, ^. X* ]4 p/ ]
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. f) W. O; y7 |banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- e; K) @( X% m  [( X% n- r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
- D. l7 b. k& f
& R* K+ e& J0 @5 p# w6 Y4 B8 FBeyond Greece
5 W( W* Y6 e3 k* o$ S1 l The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: N4 M$ q% _& y6 ^$ T6 y$ a/ Bbut that was before Italy.
4 q( q+ S& p1 T It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 C" t& Q( L8 h! S+ b It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the2 C: P5 T1 L9 f- o/ b5 M4 `
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. j$ M0 v% @/ g
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Conclusion2 v* d9 K8 F, k( @# n! \6 ~
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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