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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
3 u7 s7 K8 v: ?. L4 H; }1 iEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, `5 v6 D5 ]3 mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 [# O5 z3 B2 f: \8 V$ M9 dSignature Global Advisors
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1 \) ]5 c9 Z% v. vBackground remarks, }1 M: [: c4 |3 @+ D. _4 z+ s
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. r8 B) M0 W. n$ i. a6 mas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 A  D& Q" \8 {6 f* r+ f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) o7 }5 A% Z: n
adjustments.2 o4 b" X& e% T. B$ h9 j0 x! L
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. ~6 W/ G; I- Z8 t7 o2 h5 Tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
( P+ s; [( z9 Z% N. _ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" P, F/ k& s; A- F: @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 L9 l  ?$ `2 K+ ~4 R/ f# O We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) Z7 c7 i" b$ Dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 y; \0 O, Y" G' d1 e4 u: r Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( }+ c: Z7 L" T5 o
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 u% S9 w4 [! q) a) ^/ M Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ P2 p) Z8 V8 O0 q) ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 g) K$ D+ F! U) f3 w' @
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
. j( W" k& t: B$ {. R9 U, W9 i; k4 D( ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' n8 f  h3 n- Q. m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% i! D& r$ T+ X/ {+ S  U" c( p
impose liquidation values.
3 j; b" R% N! ~! X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 E/ W% |2 i0 l9 Y- r
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 X( F9 o: I4 C5 ~/ i6 M4 q  k. c The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, l. P$ q6 R9 x. E1 |6 x3 `9 j. xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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: s: C7 F: @+ e$ n5 _6 u! g( B7 hA look at credit markets( r7 O3 g- Y% j. O3 W1 Q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) j7 f  `9 |2 T1 w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, H) S* F( {. N% ?, N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 N  c" O! \4 J  C: zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. b3 p4 K) U$ `( kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* W( N/ Z: R9 W+ w7 K3 {access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; Q: y" c1 w% h: RCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( r2 {3 r' e/ e! h; c9 s  q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& W  G2 O3 ~5 b/ a7 S* ?6 c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. R7 w: F  X9 b1 o9 ~! ^, T9 Hfinding financing.
! ]6 q7 K& j4 P5 s. O' u) x( ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ w" v# p$ o& C" lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( `/ M3 ]+ w5 }- Z3 }+ U
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* q, j" h* m5 R, y, _  M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, |+ _- a! B! l5 b4 Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ s3 x+ K3 @! \! f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' q+ i# Q- A- M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 |" B% M4 w8 C' f2 o7 O& X  o4 |
today.. R$ M) }; L; h; W$ a6 U" M# ?* m  I) p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* N0 c  N+ ~1 `  O8 X  {emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# j' c7 x: l" }; t6 @3 m6 ~5 s Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 W+ Z% l! @1 P
the Greek default." O9 ~, V& U+ `; g9 r: m! d, Q2 H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 [# x0 ^6 @0 D' `0 ?% }  u9 c; C1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 }7 N% I- p6 D! K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 M% o2 E; g, R8 R4 S/ _5 Kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 O8 \6 n0 y% ^; g0 Z5 ]0 V; V3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ v  ?# L" v3 D
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' {* \- l) v+ O' }4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece0 M$ \! K# g( H3 v1 d
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  W: P1 k. g: q6 y3 X+ w& ^8 dbut that was before Italy.
/ \# @" l' C4 U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# x* ?+ G4 ^4 d! x6 M; D; r/ C# v It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% g4 L0 {! s4 U3 bItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; f# a$ `& l5 p4 P: a
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Conclusion
  k; K7 u# o4 \. ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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