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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
9 U$ J, M$ Q. o# F0 ~* W
  C, x8 o7 W1 y( X7 mMarket Commentary- ?: D. F  H; S- Q2 _* q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: }) b+ Z( l; l3 s/ W) RJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 b  ^7 c  T% A* Z6 X+ a* rSignature Global Advisors" [; w" o) _3 ^
* N4 o% C; l* v$ |8 l
8 ~( T8 ~. I9 _0 \
Background remarks
( I& u, C# Y) m) J( |( N- V6 q# ? Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# d6 |! U. @$ S
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., ~  {: k' o0 x, q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 j* [% M3 j2 Badjustments.
: L6 b' g6 ^- P* U8 ?. j; e! n  j This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( y" B5 V4 K0 Z* X. ?( |2 {
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 _, R! B3 z  q  {; C* J  c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  B2 T$ `5 k* y9 D
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 |! ?+ B- Y% F1 u9 x1 I! p+ b
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 m; U2 c1 y% O& B1 l+ H# ~adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 R6 V8 H  E( V+ [
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 ^( A8 O) C2 a3 ^6 \
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 V1 u9 h$ _& f9 w2 T% x7 p7 _ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; I9 F* S/ l2 B1 Z  J! i4 J- \
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# u0 I0 n+ o/ q1 X# w' b. T$ Wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 u: B  V5 E8 ^# B: K1 m# D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# `: Q' E0 [4 b8 ^. [$ t
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 u" I+ j" H- w3 y" E( P  }3 d6 o
impose liquidation values.- ~+ t/ j$ `9 d$ m
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& T: {4 S4 P# K* [) G% v2 KAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ t& v+ L; }  @1 L( L( Q) [! z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ e4 T6 D/ c) A& x" b3 Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ P, D  k. G6 W* X$ s; q) P+ R
( Q( {6 ~, c- p' A
A look at credit markets0 ~! l' ?. `; T, l/ P2 o* u
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 p8 o9 Y, a, C3 n8 O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( E; y( f; g" s+ I+ ^+ V, b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( u+ T' g4 W3 C" `
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! I/ r# R$ Z5 U. z3 c/ }9 k
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- U& k& W( [6 x" u. v  R$ V* e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; _: M' f( M% p# |1 Q: W5 y4 U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' e, Q7 V1 D; `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ [# c) o, I% p+ g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, F1 U: J( g+ E4 `6 a, ]finding financing.
3 g+ L9 C+ ^6 S- E; ?& n Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 r& |! y  R( d5 L* gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* P  {) w- L: C3 o  R4 d4 t; V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 T! f+ ~- N! g3 e" r9 yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' O- p; y* U/ I9 D0 }8 c% F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" j& L5 n7 f5 E& G9 m" ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: a# l9 b( J3 \& L European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ z  F1 e9 d% w4 L8 ]7 W
today.. m4 k, ?/ V* A1 y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# l  ?: V9 {6 a' vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  v9 {7 Q  A; h9 E  C% a
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for( X  S. m9 |- `1 d/ o9 L
the Greek default.
3 t+ ^* V* }2 o  ^/ H6 X As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! H# O0 V4 i: r- @6 a- c. C1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 u2 p5 j& Q/ u4 w0 p$ K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
0 x3 v7 s& B, e: a& zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 n# n1 {. p; p$ G6 l3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' k  k* `8 {  o& ?# P2 a4 y2 q
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 I; _1 E' O4 H1 t  r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: `" I( v4 Y) _/ f

. M% b9 c+ F3 c3 ~. e: R/ b+ vBeyond Greece" ?6 Z( o$ m! k7 F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ A* q, Z: C6 ?5 e1 n7 r( g) Ebut that was before Italy.
+ M" y" Y5 v8 j6 R) G It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 b' A5 x) O# T4 `# n8 F$ `/ v It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 t( h* ]. ?2 u( j/ t. V( Q  BItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.' h* d0 n5 ~8 Q* m1 K$ D
3 n3 P- J2 s8 S1 a  O7 B7 }
Conclusion
5 L! S! |! H1 Z4 \( W. Z$ B We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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