市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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5 `2 a& Y% ]* A& g; UMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& u2 T3 l0 V6 l: x' }Signature Global Advisors
8 d0 m- h4 @9 t$ z  Y3 L

' A7 p+ S7 c. F2 V9 J9 K3 @# p; A5 _Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) l9 @  Z- N' V+ W% V Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" f0 b, h8 S" ^' f' gadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% {$ ]3 \! b  O2 \; ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  x( V  }. P2 [4 Z- [! u$ ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; ^- `3 {  X2 T: F% R2 x% madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# M* S, U6 |0 E- r# o) ^quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  m( c/ {: ?5 p& O Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* F6 c- K% l# b$ _; jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 f) s4 H( E1 u1 i( Rimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ z3 e- y: a' ^. q5 A( pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& |2 \. r6 {. M8 @+ _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* i1 B! Y# P# T& Nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' \6 p4 d' T# oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 d! K9 g9 N) N& _& m Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 B2 e) X; i7 Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* L* ]/ L* m+ ]/ L( c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. C+ u( Z  `; v) n) L/ Q3 Etoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) J0 Z. X+ q: Qemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! |2 d$ ?9 f$ _' N: u+ F* Sthe Greek default.
1 g8 x+ m! x4 u! W0 X: r: c As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- j) M. c4 {3 @( O  T$ \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 b6 d; z* }  G3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

% U- o; B. [% j  X& N$ x, I7 ]Beyond Greece
8 `: x* p4 n) D& e4 [ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
$ t' n& [8 j" ?+ X0 {1 c. |# e/ \$ | It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) E/ Z* O/ N% d; A/ \6 C It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 b/ |- V  p8 {/ F- xItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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