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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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; ]. |" s6 R7 _! K% @. O+ y! X1 PMarket Commentary' L  p5 C6 D# s$ u
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# Y  h* W7 B1 L/ D: iJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager; {/ A% ~3 H; T+ X0 K
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
- |$ A! A. j+ W5 w! R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- Z& i( ~  J# J* a/ X% y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.8 g: Z; j  c7 x1 @/ x
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* P- v$ T! q4 M: q6 jadjustments.
8 @; |8 {, _, @( c% S This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' q* H! b3 {4 W' l# r7 S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' i  z8 ]* ^9 @! s2 s8 i
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; X) M8 F5 k, n( Q. L$ zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* w/ D9 }& r5 x, F% T  |, c We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# C) _3 S9 H* i& o, {
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- s, a( v! a& i6 p( q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 W& q  r5 ^" X7 h- @quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( b( T) i/ C* z& ?+ B9 ~* ~5 D: o/ D
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ Z. J- A" }6 I; l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. S" l3 R1 l# @( D' @" Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% y, D  y) n% I+ J$ z- Q. t The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 }8 S. i$ [$ n/ n
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 f5 M- K4 g9 N1 \
impose liquidation values.
1 L% l! r( B+ D! V% h" e0 [ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# {7 J( b/ x! Z6 _& s7 {5 _August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- P, Z( z7 h4 l7 Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. t6 \; d  A1 a; u6 O" X3 Z) h4 ~
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 e/ I; r4 k( L, c( b

, ?% \$ h2 w- l6 u; ~3 b; AA look at credit markets
+ B$ x* y' V+ g" d; s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 p+ E& b" c2 K/ T6 ]; T# [# i
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 O& v8 Z6 R/ {% u
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 g: c3 b& w" b" K0 O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: d7 l( p8 M$ }6 M
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, L2 F7 _8 Z% G# O4 r
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% k/ l# D) F% [( h, \4 F" h' _CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- q! W, h) p! A  z( \positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., ]$ I# J" \3 V7 f
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' d, u0 U( g3 S! rfinding financing.
1 v7 Z! d+ Z  W5 D& y. a. E& D Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ r/ r( x% O( f3 `- e
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; N4 m" }" U! G  P, ^% D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 P. B% k/ t2 ?6 \$ z! r1 }5 qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; H! ]# A6 X1 R) H" a" E8 T4 E
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 ]$ ]) g, i& G2 d) ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 f- L) q% m# e! f; c5 ^; F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. z5 a4 \/ R6 c# g8 B2 E( J+ _
today.7 a" K2 }& T+ \& C
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 F& g; ?# r) p2 y! |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- i+ Z: D' \" z* J" y' k/ ~ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: P# I6 B% E8 x! J
the Greek default.
3 i: X0 H$ y7 [4 Q; y0 |- t8 N As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& l3 U/ z7 b% J: K1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ T; @; M1 o4 x# a1 m; e
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  N# O  [; |3 P, G3 A9 q/ t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 s1 P- c6 x7 @! R) T6 l4 i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 E$ n# l4 \: Q' S! k% h+ j0 O$ m$ T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years( V; Q" @; ^* [& E2 u7 [6 h3 x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. g9 X: W% V* b+ ~: P/ e
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Beyond Greece
3 K7 v" D) {3 w3 M* T! P; i, ] The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 L. t5 M7 H" C7 f. d7 Y5 Zbut that was before Italy., \4 a9 }! Y/ I( F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
6 c6 L; R& S, {! U It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) ~" }6 `9 j0 e( o7 A# z# vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 V, T  j8 F- {3 i: y6 \2 R; Q

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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