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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 a+ X( D3 N' f C4 g& I3 t
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% X8 c0 k- I8 ~! Y; }4 {8 S8 zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% U. H1 u' Z, R9 Gimpose liquidation values.5 I8 l( D0 Z& Z+ q0 ^: p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. V% I# ^; ?; R/ }- \! FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ n: n. b3 D( d& m8 I
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ z3 k T; y$ ]; T5 k0 I( h/ [scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& v( A Q" }6 L# O
, B& |7 h9 y' w4 t' s
A look at credit markets
: Q# }- J4 \3 g" O$ ^& K+ T0 c Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 g+ W: _' ^6 r) N. E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ Y' a; M7 \. v1 F' ]% y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( A" F$ {, G- \1 j4 q. O) Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 S4 Q% m; n) U, N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: u3 |6 f& U0 V6 a- |
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ N8 d# w2 a5 G! M W# M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* Z. h% ?) ~& H0 G& E# C( hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* H& L# \0 D5 Z" n0 Z3 Z% U# H* _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 }2 b; ?; M8 h- x' sfinding financing.# m1 M* W4 C! V. Q0 V2 s% e1 n
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, i. j2 x& T! C4 Q3 ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 N' F3 F9 D& G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- y1 m1 F( O i( o% }( eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. c; F/ l: M) @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 P2 ~9 V8 E. L1 abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) C& v* f0 F* T
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 O3 P- ~4 @* G, {' s" d* u
today.. G$ @) w% P, g, t
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 J' H" }. Z i3 y( i
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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