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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation& j ]/ \: {/ z' Z2 D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long a, ?0 m1 W& p% ~1 ~+ \ b" f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& k$ R. o j/ F7 s# Gimpose liquidation values.
% _7 F& m) Z; y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% L1 T" j, n3 w6 ]9 q0 h rAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 u7 ?+ H( ]: f( v9 u% Q- W
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ x- I1 n5 K9 m" w% qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ p9 z$ S7 X# j# V' r, w& g) f% U: O
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A look at credit markets9 c$ ?4 X, C4 V; F4 t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ S# k( X6 q7 N4 i
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 E6 e; C2 V/ R/ f3 ^0 l5 i9 l/ }. }
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& g0 w* o& B5 u/ L2 A L! Y. s, ?; p4 ~
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
2 y! e2 a s( q+ {0 b8 Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 q8 O) ?& b8 N j' l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade A; {% q1 ]& D. L! W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- ^' h; O3 i9 f8 Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# e" m$ { h, E+ j8 k/ V6 L
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( @/ |7 }0 T5 O \5 L; ]1 pfinding financing.
% p# W, e L, u/ [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 B4 {6 ~% j* U' ?0 a. g6 r& x# vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& g- f) q( M/ D8 ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! n( f/ b0 L* r# r) R8 E# H# Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ ^* S: D. \/ N5 @& l8 T
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 y( C+ F" E$ I! l
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.9 _" G% j; U0 I3 \' |# x- @7 x
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ d7 {; y' [, D" [5 D% b9 g8 t; _today.+ a5 s" m" V( E5 i0 r; W B; d. x
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 K9 ^- P0 f( I' [emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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