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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
9 S  C' {6 _  q& l) N! kEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# m* B8 |7 `# r1 r6 U1 I  }; e; wJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 q" W# S3 {  [/ ^* E" i& I- tSignature Global Advisors
* P& X1 S1 b( A( j- M( O5 }% p! ~  [- H

* t% p2 u8 L: Y6 Q  c2 \Background remarks9 k4 I, c2 ^4 D% T
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are' E& i% [+ b( p, @1 k8 f
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! c/ _; K8 O7 _- v Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ Y+ c/ o1 M! ~6 W5 ?# g3 a; M9 Oadjustments.
/ }4 \3 `' H! t; h2 i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' y3 A0 {1 l7 T7 `+ K* w' dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  F2 e( ?4 K- R0 D( A( ]; ]1 Q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: O/ F# b9 Q% G5 o: Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: h' }8 S6 o2 ?3 d( i! L3 L) o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
9 z  E* f: o' @adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 R. Q. ~2 e( q% m
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 s' {5 @9 m3 g6 A* Y/ m4 u+ Y8 i( Y8 T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* {2 m1 m. v! L7 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# Y8 {7 ~' G+ L8 O
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ o9 K; S8 m# S) z, m. Hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. g  X# B4 J/ C, N% [) Q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" i. W+ E% j# X, Y& c
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- i7 a8 r3 ?! @
impose liquidation values.8 F5 D" N4 L3 u) {" }
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! s" ~2 D# y& `7 t0 |7 j: y4 K7 E
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: X' \3 S  `' Y/ z; q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 s8 u1 ^( y: m2 e4 Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 @# Z6 c! B) A% C2 u6 s# x

" E' o4 y) ]* u; u! }% {7 f8 sA look at credit markets
/ b4 `; r! |" L/ c Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& {5 S& E/ d4 }1 j6 WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 S+ t7 u7 E9 u$ L- X1 Y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 i4 x" h4 {$ U% M! y4 b- _# y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- b! S6 |, \3 w8 d) s+ ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 e& A8 R" F( [2 i! a# Laccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ V3 }1 I5 a; ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 C. Y( Q  @$ K: S* tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield." g4 ^" ?% Q2 ~; S* P2 g
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ p" g& X; D5 I$ g$ ~' sfinding financing.  `; V% W5 j8 c, r! M5 c; ]
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& A: M! h2 M0 ?7 D- ?7 f( uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# Q6 A5 A  ]% X8 a
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' _2 S% _" w7 E6 S
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ u7 c8 Y; O7 L! n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 ^( o( N8 \6 Y  S  ~bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( V+ h6 Y- |& J9 d- [8 y# U2 _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- r! c" j) \1 F. |, ]
today.
0 R( K+ S3 O$ b9 X3 {0 Y  k, m# O; D Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  m7 Y2 V3 a. A4 oemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) o, l/ `1 `7 e* u, ?/ M' s; x
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 j5 E7 F+ ~" Q1 o4 ethe Greek default.( V6 |, E( K- L/ r
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 Q' l3 e/ p! p$ O/ H  k, q' q" G1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 Q, q0 E, w5 G  f3 ]# D( T2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 |- p6 L! ^- zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.. F3 `0 `/ i( x( L: k. r  X  U6 u
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ H) f5 B3 ^* a. N4 a
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* b! O* i8 y6 ?( Y8 J
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: l6 f2 K+ p$ [% U# j* q
1 f$ ]: _& n( [+ p2 }
Beyond Greece
8 Q' y$ A& l/ m5 j* { The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% z& D3 `, b( J+ r; X
but that was before Italy.% [2 ^) G% Z4 M, [. U
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 g- R4 G& N- l8 E5 V
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# K- f  S! s- R- IItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion  Y8 O8 D7 `9 a) i0 D  g/ D
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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