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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! R" b  K# m( e; h
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Market Commentary
+ X  J% M( c2 DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: [# a" u# \/ u7 K" X3 VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! {* h) K/ l/ w8 u2 h2 h* @, ]
Signature Global Advisors
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1 j9 w" ~9 T) y6 q- t$ c' h( nBackground remarks
4 K3 \5 C7 M3 D. i: ^- z$ |1 g9 m Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 ]& o  F2 L( q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 m. V* E6 W) ~; }% q- G0 e
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% G2 y2 `7 X, R, e4 Gadjustments.
8 \2 U( j: j& T$ ^2 j* N( F This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! _3 ^/ t6 q) ~" d4 H8 a
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.$ p9 `5 O1 `4 X+ f- s; v2 J
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 A% R4 w6 B/ D  I  L* i- w
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! {  ]- m5 ^8 E4 z8 H3 t% Q3 w" c% y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these/ w) I  X: |: n6 |
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, Q3 u5 r1 Z( o  b- [ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* C- a# ~& q( S" o/ B
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. s* R1 [/ d: k- F7 h% ^ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 ~, e9 M% f4 [. B  U
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& M/ t8 U" m! o
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 x0 W+ t0 g) i- h The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( t4 y8 X* f; @- O- p7 p, O+ A% e
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& {; D* Z, x. P8 _  x6 t
impose liquidation values.
5 v( v$ H2 U" C# k, q$ s/ M1 a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 E! u; J1 w: ~$ j# G- t
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# W. P9 V9 J2 m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 d6 X0 R% U, F+ @; p# Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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! k! M0 |4 E# a9 C$ ~! I. r- dA look at credit markets2 e) o) F$ `8 [' ~7 W$ ~) }; j8 O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 J* O* t. X' MSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  n& @5 C+ W' A8 {8 D2 y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 n6 q5 |2 V8 F/ g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ [* W: v$ V+ I* U3 g& ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 V, R3 }5 n+ Y' I9 gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: J; a, u+ S! x6 T. }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' Y% `4 j! i/ I* m1 m
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  l  T) v7 R+ p3 V- c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 J; Z3 Z! v/ I5 w% wfinding financing.8 T) I/ n# u+ {& V9 X5 A
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* {3 g0 ?6 _* K# p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  T% p% L' g/ ~, W' m+ k6 _ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: f- u" C  F1 f- M  ]. S
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 o. X( _2 N: _going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* M) i  z* B! [3 i$ x4 X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  {3 R- m; @4 j% y6 B5 v+ D/ V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ u+ {! o1 |2 c, {$ m9 O6 Btoday.
. z6 W5 e% C& x2 z6 X& M Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 |$ v* y* h% w. [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& m* y* _- S$ T; ?' o7 h! P Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 `  T8 Z1 |: n5 B/ F( o5 Xthe Greek default.
6 e% k5 V/ g# G! ~6 |: v( p5 v2 n As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ s1 c4 W6 A' o3 C
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 P- Q1 G/ G5 u$ d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# q/ N* e1 N4 a, @) R$ @* M$ X# qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.* ]# `* m. L1 {: n$ s/ h
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; s) ~$ @+ Q! M2 }* N) [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) W  q$ P. z) O( z( b0 h4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
& h9 Y8 N$ m+ ^+ J The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. C) T; N/ k* C9 K+ Zbut that was before Italy.4 w2 j2 \; f6 Y( b
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- B7 A6 A# \% J( |% X It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" j' S# J) r& `1 J+ GItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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0 E- ~  Y( P2 V/ v" f. C9 SConclusion
8 {3 ~) n* X" `; n5 ]6 W/ ^ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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