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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 f1 z( r/ V' X* @% L/ l5 {

( r4 Z2 U' H! \; L) JMarket Commentary
9 E8 Q4 N& S" @5 X: s- _* d- hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
8 A) D% Z# u# t; d$ x, \$ r8 VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& P- p1 ^- `% [- U1 U8 W
Signature Global Advisors
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0 ~. M. _) D/ v3 T3 iBackground remarks
# L: b! {/ Z* ?- e0 r, x, b4 a Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ j' _! M- m0 m( D: c7 Pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, e! J+ |6 S; P- Y7 `: C Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* v6 \# ^6 O- K+ Xadjustments.
, P! N8 M' j( Q6 h/ c( t$ U This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ e' @. G, H" O0 }% osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.* s# P' a* I2 l" Z+ k4 y
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& o" P5 {" C+ B7 J& v$ P# e+ M
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( e) b& H( h+ @/ x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& j- c3 r' n# a( o# r2 c
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 H7 M( d# t0 f0 g7 d8 F Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
7 B. Q3 Z# S8 A) `! A3 @quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) q; s+ D3 O& B7 j
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ p: Q1 t9 d) Q. R1 }' m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 ^  F7 t$ D) Q. l8 Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: G* @( ^4 W0 U# N1 C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ L. ?* ~' Q% w6 G5 n" Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 N$ \/ c: ~+ v9 y
impose liquidation values.
  y8 b3 x: o; |; c) F In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ o" V1 f/ a4 }) n% b; ]1 d3 Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ X6 P+ m1 B' F- B1 u  ?( q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 e' n5 D; b6 L2 u& i7 wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ o% T+ V' E3 G5 i! _
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A look at credit markets7 [: @# m1 I) e7 e: K  j0 i
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 @4 \( h( H$ a, X
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 K1 i- j; B- C" D8 p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( K7 X5 |* v5 G' r- @8 c
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. }/ ?5 ^& R  z% m5 rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, |' ~" h: l: }- O6 ]  U6 U- D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: ?' k8 n6 M9 @. W* a. H9 m/ kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 e" F6 X# Y4 c+ Spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) f* J& k' H' f* @0 a
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: V+ l+ ?9 z) E6 q. R0 Vfinding financing." w& r% Q' z6 c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 C' Y$ \6 z% u! o) l+ X3 ^1 I4 O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- V+ t" \. i2 E+ M
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! y. N- R2 d8 n# V# ?. y. `# T; i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: S$ ~& r1 c6 {0 Rgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- ?8 w- E4 N7 f4 \( Fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" e7 t' y3 h6 K) r7 x" q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 x$ {7 a/ W6 O* ~8 U
today.
- J  S* n3 r1 O0 h Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 K- T2 p9 d' j7 {emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 R" ~, P7 l6 b9 ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 g& r3 C; A* o7 L. F/ J% ^$ pthe Greek default.2 {) e$ |, i" u5 \: \% ]4 n3 w
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 }3 T% c$ P( p2 J8 b1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) i, b2 c3 M! w3 \2 r$ F* ?
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; b1 j4 [" S8 K* y& Kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 Q2 A  ?8 Z: x4 h; I4 p
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 n$ }$ P# {4 Q" \$ g& Q! l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ J9 U/ |% p. D& T6 V
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece3 I$ Z3 t( \! D2 P8 g
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 U( p" q) R/ E8 g( s2 d
but that was before Italy.
- Y8 k- T( Y/ s% T# j4 o: u$ b It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  q" }, d) L9 ?
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 l7 d! p5 P+ QItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: y: C0 T0 x, g" n1 E5 m7 u! L$ C
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Conclusion! y# u, U9 q+ A& a" w  k1 ?, m
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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