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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 U, V7 E! e2 A

5 A$ L  V# ?' z, d& s8 GMarket Commentary
! l! z1 s/ ~# r$ z! e5 mEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- A$ k8 V" y$ X5 ?) LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% v6 |3 N2 e9 F$ [5 c9 S; BSignature Global Advisors' t- Z8 k  b) r- U4 j8 @- x1 C

+ J0 H* Y) s7 @3 i. {, w) G! s; K
/ Z2 F0 c- O( N  ^- oBackground remarks
) B: G) {  t0 v Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) V' G% {! d7 c
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; l3 s5 P: d5 H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# N2 O+ c( W" F: n4 Xadjustments.
  A5 v; c$ X  m) d This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" t: V5 d0 J6 J) D1 q, d2 c
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 Y4 Y  P5 M# d- P1 ] Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& v+ H# h* n( o7 V8 dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 P9 z' |; L# q" ?: V  o! D
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# m9 G" r9 |- y7 a
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, `- N" _) i3 O Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ F/ \  g9 y; B  w2 K/ l! bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, B& }5 I: K' ?8 m% Z Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ O6 T/ s2 A! ]0 ?$ M2 y. i
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 S& U  P  m1 Q- R+ }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) q+ G8 O( m- S7 l0 g The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" c- q6 J; y& s: E9 I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* T, }' F5 O$ S" P- Ximpose liquidation values.3 `* l, U7 ~- d3 A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. L! e2 |7 e4 ~) p1 W1 iAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; M7 l; [3 U9 P) e1 j* m, {0 A8 r5 R2 K8 ~ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# O" r% m$ X; Q3 j! a0 `7 W/ x* }! Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 j7 N8 }3 _$ C
: y% P/ |2 |3 a8 U+ v+ H/ \
A look at credit markets% ^# F) k+ ~; E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 _- X, S+ m& n
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 o& M- r' W7 z6 B% I$ W, Q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# T% i! i( b, v+ p. m  b, f+ ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ A7 @3 w4 Z7 M, Y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* K. C' J3 k9 J& U5 r9 k6 J+ M
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% r8 W% ~' x3 SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" R0 X7 V& ]; A. K4 j" Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' t% j, w- Q& q9 S
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. @' D& B0 Q. ?0 d- M3 T0 x# Gfinding financing.
/ r* t8 p$ X8 Q; z4 m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 v$ M; b! ?4 d" v4 Fwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( T2 w9 h. D' p- x/ r9 B
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 e- U( E- Z- [! x
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% z9 G3 @7 |- q$ ~+ c4 W# x8 N1 m0 z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 d1 F3 L: D5 w- B( c% `% T- Y$ h
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 N2 t: @! H; ]' h5 r  o European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 s7 Z2 n$ g+ Q$ ?! ltoday.) t2 z# M; k# \7 x
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 \2 ~4 K0 R6 J4 Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ z# \; e% r( W/ ]) `% K+ [
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' d6 u) g* P: C  }# g$ w
the Greek default.9 n% W  b) u6 U6 Y8 r' {4 [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 |* x+ T" U, Z: W& ]
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& Z0 R. z4 Q% t; n$ t0 U- J& T
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 F+ z: o% P2 p+ O7 I4 g, n) Pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 X1 w7 l$ @* L; ^
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- D) K+ C3 M$ ^banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 {( P* }$ P5 P' {
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
2 Y. N) l6 c3 {+ h/ E% t. S
5 F% O* a* J+ m5 k/ D! ^$ Q0 H& n7 GBeyond Greece7 r, i3 c. [9 p5 P0 w( r1 o, v
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 Z  p: o5 w+ C4 u, x* ]but that was before Italy.) P) ~. ^5 o! e
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
& [  `( R, ~) s! h It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ |4 ?" W$ c0 Z* ^! S
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
$ B; B8 }9 t8 k  G. {; U& z9 Z1 X
2 h' [2 P$ S  w) q' Z: e/ qConclusion
: T- |" N4 p- O  |& P1 q* @ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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