 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
* b8 Y' D, a1 v0 a& K7 `( _( s The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& s: a. F: e8 s1 mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: z2 Q+ ?9 Q& f+ h; |
impose liquidation values.9 S' k* ^$ T" |# _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, Y6 p1 P' r$ X, {' U
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 V& b" Y6 x3 @% U0 N) b8 l The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 ?/ ^' V; p! d7 ~* f, F" Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' d, f& X% Z- ^* T6 G
8 Y0 l. d2 q A5 M' \6 GA look at credit markets+ X8 R8 z5 j. \: w, E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( c9 v$ k# T: E( g+ U2 c3 q3 hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
M% z O D0 F- W6 k+ Q7 N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) m1 |! E2 J# ?, V7 C4 L+ I, D0 T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* Z2 M% t0 B! A- x6 q, kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" t4 e% Q! Q/ r* G
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ ?0 j6 V3 A! Z+ V0 I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 h1 f' S( w! Mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& a1 `) y) V- o# X, k" `0 |& i
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ H, C% `; n2 \0 f8 q* bfinding financing.
, n9 x2 Q9 ]" l Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; g; h0 _1 \/ v' k: B0 ?2 rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* ~" i4 `' [# O$ m7 Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ Y) M, n3 Y( Q: H( `+ [; F& n0 cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* C; v1 a# ]# n, _! y# S, i' f2 a
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; z3 j2 w. g% l: L% J, S" x. i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; {* ?" h# i/ V7 S* i; D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; g( ~' V |. e( b% f) r2 y# s; R& T
today.
8 E6 {- r0 _: Q: } Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" P4 s3 B# z2 \. R' _8 o7 Z U2 Yemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|