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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation& N* m& \$ v" s& B+ F9 S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% D3 ? r. l+ ~2 ^$ {
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* q" r p" }# z; m1 t- Oimpose liquidation values.+ {! Q5 V) e5 h$ ~4 R! h
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In: N- c$ S* [# |% Z& B" r6 W+ ^9 H0 z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ {! ^2 i: [! q3 P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" O" k" I( |# |0 K. qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." ?- H7 f% q. {
5 F7 E' }( ]$ p& B3 _) C
A look at credit markets
( r4 z" O4 G# t+ u3 p/ i+ j+ m$ { Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) R% ]& x& a4 G$ A! WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven. T0 N9 F! c' t% _
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 P- `- K$ o9 Z0 h3 M; ?% D2 uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' w$ i9 t) G# }/ R6 Cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, S& G9 u2 j1 p
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. p1 D3 k+ ~8 Y2 s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 S. J3 q; X& V) w- T% zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 f) \0 f9 A; o0 x0 {8 C
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# [9 d) u2 m, i9 F( W ]finding financing.9 w, I, y6 Q3 H
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. G: |( @3 v2 Y2 N) x9 ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' L: p6 V9 R9 k! l$ O0 C' m: {$ E
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ }6 |7 R) v E( e" E
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 V( K b3 E2 A
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' e5 d" F& D; @* P) D6 I
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 [8 A$ f+ P1 z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; [+ [3 `6 @2 z: w( L
today.# r& `2 f$ u) |+ [+ S- Z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, U. i5 ?- Q. Z+ N- b! ~. b9 Q# ^emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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