市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 s# S* l9 r2 q% s, b* USignature Global Advisors
5 o* s1 m" {8 G! o& p( f: r0 q
" |) g$ n; ?* C. l3 W0 A" b& N  Q
Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: p  V5 E7 `: W We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, ^- Q8 g* d9 r8 b+ m& Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 F! m, G5 {" p Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 S7 B/ F/ x5 Q0 ^ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 x/ H4 T) ~& greduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; m, ~$ g( E, r, H  k$ x4 y, aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ p, S) {: }1 b3 cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: u$ Q% E5 g, q9 z1 p! gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
- m0 d% r: _, e- E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 i) b( H* V2 |/ p% MSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, a. F, ~# J, `# ]7 L: pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
7 A8 h9 l( F8 {+ jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. c) Q. J9 ]5 F0 i# Q0 fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; ]7 q6 m" P3 R European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- t5 ]' D9 t( }4 G; h1 Ptoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% x1 ~# o* w! N, [2 s* zemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: M$ n( _$ \- }" X5 q/ N+ Xthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 c6 L0 t1 S# P7 ^3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
4 O2 X+ `0 i  cbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. Y6 e( o: T  P It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" e) `$ Y4 U- P) M7 h, U7 tItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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