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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- c" y1 V1 w' {8 z: l. P
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Market Commentary( r" k3 ^  z1 ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 Z( {" b# }9 C5 GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  H5 ^/ O5 V& D$ j2 `
Signature Global Advisors+ C: u2 N- ^( r1 |+ H  b

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$ o8 Y: I+ H) E/ t) b! g! kBackground remarks
2 F; }/ c! C. b7 P% ?! g( D1 a Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 W" Z6 N  q8 c; Gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ W# j, |+ N) L# a7 h% W Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 ~% L. M# J  ?( l& Jadjustments.
1 O1 e: Z# ?4 f1 [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% F2 o/ S7 Q6 u* g& Nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: A( N9 H* ]* w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 {' H0 i0 \% H$ c2 _+ d/ Ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- c! g9 [7 K& H( k% G8 D. I9 M
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) Y  B$ _# Y* _$ L+ a
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
4 v; l4 Y1 L4 `2 ?3 m Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s  `+ L0 T0 H# v+ Z) b4 c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" a  F+ f- q3 y  m9 { Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 w7 ]7 x  U+ K$ t" b0 T$ L Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 o/ ~8 Z  c5 \2 Y+ H* nreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 T1 _1 T% M$ N; e5 y* I  [ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  g" ]8 H6 N- Q% [% R
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 R3 ^; W( m2 n4 w% k1 K6 t2 ^impose liquidation values.8 h* H0 @# w: n7 a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 N1 [: c+ \0 d9 @August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 b3 x% f* ?% E0 D1 R9 m5 V7 X The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! e, c" d6 `) X2 d* l- Q7 {
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 R+ ^' ]8 g- m7 y& E

& |% a- {/ u0 A5 {" t1 v6 o3 EA look at credit markets; y  e4 Y6 F7 }; w% [
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* N1 E& H! k8 Z/ ~: q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- e( ^2 c7 ]. S+ O0 `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 S, \+ k. j4 Nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ _; W& \1 F4 v  v1 C! o1 F* U2 Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ S# {/ ^9 M9 Gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 b+ |+ L" H$ w; v4 l; U. PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% Q. S. i4 J# G% b
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# Z# u4 |) R- {/ b( M5 p% b# [. E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 K+ R2 x# i# P8 K2 Y: Mfinding financing.
5 t- s0 o- I  J9 ]. X5 d3 b6 { Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" y: \$ c( R. i; g2 o# a- p1 Fwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, b7 a) y) U8 d& S Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 v$ \1 z$ _7 [  k( p7 j6 E8 i+ Eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 }( [/ m6 G4 {. Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% C( x! ~/ H$ b
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* R/ @3 x* d+ Z1 y+ ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 b+ \: E2 A1 O1 H
today.* _- T2 |% C- j  D
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, m6 D  T3 A( C% k6 L1 M. k5 {emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% s& r4 j& ?$ `' ^5 L. f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 {2 P% G; U- B6 b# `
the Greek default.
, U1 D# q: o, m/ Z0 B& v As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 ?3 r- F: Q& \, N& Q+ R1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. t- w& O6 i7 U% F+ I
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) J* M4 E6 D  u  }
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 `! s( ?2 [8 T$ ^# Q( Z$ k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! y: B* k  ?! }0 V4 Abanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' {& [2 k/ q) H* ]- P; I3 v4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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) h4 C# f# q7 e- G7 B: q8 GBeyond Greece) g+ ~/ J  T7 j# R3 E$ Q
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- A5 I$ I# q- tbut that was before Italy.
) m  O& e: [6 ` It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 p) T" O- \- j0 K
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  d- ]" E. W- M1 {" M  ZItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ }6 w6 \- U4 J6 ]0 X
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Conclusion
- A% Q4 o7 M' N. F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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