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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 h% t0 A+ @7 [7 l
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Market Commentary" ^% ^1 ?8 A  z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( H) n. L6 }8 CJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" z2 L9 L8 r& u* N, ]/ FSignature Global Advisors+ O  n. t$ g; d, Z3 u2 _  h
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Background remarks
+ P9 j& [- ^0 F% v) r) H, b$ I Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% Y$ `# I1 T) P5 [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, S: B8 Q7 X  P0 B& m3 H5 M% x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ E) M. v( g; ?' ]9 I( R# R4 _adjustments., g8 u% f* @6 [- D
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 q% ^' M3 X9 K- H
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 _* A5 y" Z+ `* ?1 @. v9 m Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 n% ^; l0 e4 c. d: G
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 A2 O# q4 X+ b6 s: Z8 Y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* U3 M7 Y3 ~% s# x) J
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.; x7 u$ [( S+ _6 Q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: V6 X/ i$ L5 o  Xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: L; x1 |; \) h0 p
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) l$ o4 e7 v  E Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 d+ T6 L9 W, [" \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 j9 J( x7 |% y* i# x) O+ z* d1 z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
, U. ^# T  p. j. Z0 Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 V7 ?2 Q& q: `3 Zimpose liquidation values.; y: v3 {; {  j9 j6 E9 d- ]
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 ?0 ^9 r8 Q& bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 H/ a# t+ K3 C; W4 z0 A
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ y7 ]) Z9 t9 s, w  {7 z# w. A7 L- ?
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% y- R. b* I6 R8 ?# ?; j/ G
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A look at credit markets9 ?1 W: y! Y/ Q, n! G" N; A
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ Y  T' @1 [$ {3 D3 n1 g5 ]9 S% }7 N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* ?' r( b( {4 [' i9 }1 m
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 e! x' }5 b) j# x6 g+ sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% e' q. V: h4 N3 m/ s) p+ q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' u) K6 T, d( K9 ]3 g$ xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; @5 n1 {$ {: H& I; A# }8 B
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& m9 y! d+ ^! c( d7 r! Z+ L) qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 r) s4 n, p8 z# f- U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 w2 ^5 f/ |- Sfinding financing.
, G8 g+ b: `* t) [. K  K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they  t, O% s' y9 @
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" r, @$ t$ [1 { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 I8 V8 o% ?6 P' j) `- H' h6 c6 E) k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# q3 O7 w/ L/ ^6 n  z# q. Vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 N3 n  J; u6 ^. K' ?3 Q2 C9 {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: z/ z& I- q$ q- P
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ _: w0 |8 Q1 a
today.
5 |) `3 b5 d5 {) m3 f* @1 P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: T" H, {' H) g; ~8 M! k3 Semerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 z6 s+ ~5 b$ M' I: s! d9 ?
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 U! c6 T/ f5 H8 V1 B, \/ kthe Greek default.
( F# t+ }3 }3 c5 C7 Y- w* F As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- [- E0 T) M+ C0 v* Z2 w
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: _6 l) _8 F/ V( i( ?$ \
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. o1 o) A( t5 S1 A& jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& E3 g( k6 G) N, h8 J8 x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 O$ b8 p. ]0 ?8 a8 O# W: H* S" G2 Dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 [3 S5 T: f/ j  T3 k
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
; U; w' V) ?9 v9 \' Y( r, E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" q, S2 ]6 C( G7 A( Ubut that was before Italy.
' i8 t% e3 a9 M  M5 _, j  ^, ^- d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% v# P5 [5 M% U5 Q
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- H2 \- y; ~5 b. v3 r' s0 z/ ^
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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! E; V/ W9 S: x% m/ w" sConclusion
& u' j, J+ O4 n2 i8 ^/ C9 d We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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