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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary+ I/ m" o( `$ C5 I/ P/ U3 |
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ f: l( E4 {8 G9 w
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 p' [8 F% Q2 G" C  USignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks- e! t$ U" J7 R) D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 I  V  K. r8 C  Y) a2 ?* B
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.' x) i' n: s* s' `$ }# Y( M
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- _/ Y5 o& v! c6 I! |- Padjustments." I0 i# q, _4 }$ _) Q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 Z1 h9 d3 ~+ W  X3 q# K6 k, }safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 f( _/ o# ?3 j# |6 V: V- T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 B; ]/ \1 I$ r  e$ ^lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." ^  a9 C; J$ s; R1 ?1 I/ e7 ]( d
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. b. h2 Q# R5 }# f& i2 ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! @6 [1 [& ]$ H2 i5 M$ g9 T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, T) g; s, u$ d# v2 f$ u
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
% R& O  `  p  i& m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 V( M  b, c$ d1 h, t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 V) i5 y+ ^5 wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: o7 k( ]# n6 X, u The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- m) \: S1 r+ H8 [0 i
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- Y- G/ Q+ b& ^/ |$ H
impose liquidation values.7 \& O- A5 C: \) P" b: i
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  J, `% ?- a! ?+ UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# l, H# ^) [; G# s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' E% T5 N6 _; |  A3 u$ j% }4 G
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. H: n# V* h+ a# E0 @! @+ C5 gA look at credit markets
* B& y0 |7 S& O4 K+ W Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 E  |/ i5 E5 K( C& t! \' Y, B
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ e5 q1 ^: T6 I% W9 h, _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 ]: L. \4 }( t- u( j7 m& [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! l& Y0 B; @5 e( {# \" `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 r' P/ L( v. ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* Z" B1 J' I& Y4 i0 pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( N+ J/ r4 {, {' f6 y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 h5 h% r8 F( I$ _6 v% f( O
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 _6 e, d9 q! q
finding financing.
! D; r% c0 D  C0 _& s; m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& h( O/ C4 f) D) h) Gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ g5 Z1 q4 d1 c/ M  p# ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 U" W! O% B6 s$ l
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 ]4 i2 p0 T3 }& `5 _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 A! Y" q5 @  O3 q+ s5 Ibankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ \: J! i* E6 O/ W: ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# k9 m  k! v$ f/ D  Jtoday.
/ Z5 d) v$ U( z" w, p Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& E7 T- T) o9 W! B! p' g) S. i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' |/ S. ]# P1 n1 \  o
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- ^1 [/ T% L7 d- e
the Greek default.; U$ B$ l: Z+ C* @7 w4 ]# C
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 F# |; [; I7 z4 f1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 I2 K" c/ R0 J5 ]
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign! g; V) r+ y# E( K5 A& R
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 b: z$ M: t2 e8 \  F% V
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ ~. O8 O' a( _6 Ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 O' B1 g0 j+ P" x5 i0 s: ]% z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* f" `6 m& U7 t8 w( }

! n1 ?* H% k1 G8 X4 hBeyond Greece
5 P7 ?) q/ e& o9 k+ ~* i2 H. q- u The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- |0 R* d. r# E9 Y. s
but that was before Italy.
; E8 F. w0 T0 f) ` It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 Q* u' s% X9 f2 V# _5 A2 g" |
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 B, h+ v# W1 f6 C4 RItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# h2 n, o* K' f, x

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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