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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 C( q/ [: B! x
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Market Commentary4 H* x+ k% @, B  E. F. f+ O" A" b
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 [: V" Y. ?( U. U8 h$ X0 LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# }$ y1 c0 z' @8 O4 x7 a# a
Signature Global Advisors# P4 u0 W% }. M& ^2 ]9 a' B, O% p

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Background remarks
; h( m) x- C% I. _4 B  A' f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. k- D) M0 B* [- p( Z/ r. n
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# @9 Z4 f6 `' i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal, \( e6 e' e/ p1 |
adjustments.  e; f$ s% h% ?5 o0 c, w
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 J% `7 R8 {- g0 g7 csafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 R, E2 z: K5 T, ~8 R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ D, h- e  W! X9 m. D
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.6 q+ t' `' }- N, @
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 r2 j8 `5 _0 ~  Padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. M( \. c8 G7 A" `3 i1 v- I! G9 I, M Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* E3 n$ [! O, o4 Z! C* k* F
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 s" \, ]  z+ E! |" j
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  b# G4 a0 O) R7 `# x' r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; `7 v( S7 p0 `3 H' e
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ J$ o& J2 q  z& o# L5 e7 x/ n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- p2 C4 {4 q( R9 zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. D/ \1 [/ X* M! ^& qimpose liquidation values.
5 ]. ~2 ?- }$ F In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. G! `8 c, I5 Q8 G9 U( n5 w9 nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. P& Y4 X: |* y! {: ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 J5 W! B2 E1 B6 [  Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
* A6 P' f; k8 @9 g! p Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ t6 c2 W' j" c+ i+ a9 o( D% s/ p
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 N) w9 X8 _$ E) x! J5 w: k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 o) Q- e1 ^5 i( O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 K0 a! F2 q4 P. d, s  a) Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- O! N; w/ s* d# Baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 E0 j1 k  u, A3 X. a9 l+ J
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% f% y9 i2 \3 J
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. n* m8 B; _5 U4 e, s; M( W& B
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 M! ?0 H/ m6 o& t: H( g' ofinding financing.
; {) C$ J7 c$ ?( I' c. H+ n3 j Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" z! h) f  p, }9 G6 v  rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# a- ~* O+ N. L$ Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 w+ X* o8 _, his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# z9 }- W0 R8 E4 W' I4 {: k
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( o+ R( s3 a* |& p* O  ?8 _bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ O: \; k$ M* k4 s5 y% s& D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, b; J) w7 Y  f8 P6 T
today.
1 r6 }. X8 e5 N- K5 _% r Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  b; Q- Z$ F6 N: [8 T' o! {emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 B' @1 B: q& q: l/ e Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. S0 L" e5 p/ q. ^- ~" T' fthe Greek default.
4 }  L7 g' j+ t5 d0 f# T, X. b( M As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 h" X% b4 {' w( e  K1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 ?  Z) n" u" @  c: H
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 H6 \8 j  f" m6 |! \8 Ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.  c' k$ H$ F' v8 ^/ L" W
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ V; G2 @9 D& F) V, c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% N7 c9 F% H* D9 F% h4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., y6 |; j3 p5 U7 {
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Beyond Greece
; _) l8 q4 I2 S. q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 [0 A+ A& ?- Z) p' j, D% e. ?0 O0 D7 ]
but that was before Italy.
5 L( Q4 f+ E! z- C1 q& e It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." B) R/ S0 w' G
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" @3 I, V9 I1 H9 D3 H2 S3 ]Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., @' Z2 s8 u- ^- [

& c1 j' v: f! w- s  h& m  |Conclusion2 G! n0 s6 }8 B  E3 a1 F9 R
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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