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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation- L# i: @' J9 V' u7 Q6 o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# S' B9 d! U# y7 F9 {4 R2 aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' {1 u) \* X4 {- i3 n% D6 ]
impose liquidation values.
! b% a5 O! v4 n. S9 W" O$ I; r In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ E0 p$ L7 U$ h- d- U5 j5 uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ F6 l8 o5 v5 _( l- q4 M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 Z$ j; y: s" Tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 \5 U3 Y% y- Z1 H) @; Q
; O8 V$ [+ m" H IA look at credit markets
7 h8 A% l* M& i& v Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& N; f- ]; a( v4 ?September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! w6 F, R- x1 u& K4 b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 z/ D1 O, V5 C7 N* L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, ?5 { }! F* Z/ p; U3 a- B8 D
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# [# c8 p, Z0 d7 T$ i4 Z( H6 u; A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. Z2 e) ] T0 T9 l) g6 XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- k7 p( C* B0 _8 i3 Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 X0 U7 ~/ v. ^( }6 E8 e Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 T5 _( v; @+ S/ b9 P5 f
finding financing., ~5 [# i3 A3 @! Y; t& L5 P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. i% b9 T: p/ _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; w: L1 ]3 w) C& Z4 d4 [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* x- I" m0 }+ M5 W8 Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- z+ s, z& i4 b6 ]8 C: \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! U5 \! h+ X) F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# u, m B9 ~0 L
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% o% X k/ u, d5 F' [today.8 D( w9 a3 d' R
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: z% f7 N) i& |* [
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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