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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ L# H2 t. H' ?3 [% U0 `
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Market Commentary
! T2 q8 g1 g" R8 l# mEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ h2 r" g' M" U7 r! U, t6 _James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# {$ H; o4 t+ K% k( H% V9 V- l
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks. F( m) w' g% v) z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
0 {5 Q; `4 ?8 H3 ~as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ e1 A# n: G3 _ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal, ^+ j! ^, z! [! f0 W/ [/ X' A
adjustments.& D4 ^1 K2 q- M
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 {; X( o  h/ c: ^9 \  P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 H/ c$ r: ]6 k) I: \( ~
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 y! ?9 b. q% z9 `5 @
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 p7 `0 I; o9 w& Y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; r0 W% @8 b2 P9 V( K: Ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 U$ G7 h2 S: g0 Q
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 j% ]* Z% U- O& \- [
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' A+ v% l" P2 G2 d( Q& b/ g Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.9 U+ E8 Y5 O8 A
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* o+ b* U: O0 X6 m/ R  a
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' I  \* c5 X: U! z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 N' w: z& v6 j+ q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. `6 Z' N: F+ P& F
impose liquidation values.: {+ \9 F. N1 Y7 E. m
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" x( R5 o& a  {! LAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 {5 F3 o; B+ N0 I- O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& w7 j( @" ~  [
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
7 z: n9 R  i  G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' J: j: ]8 {" M! o
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# p  n$ b5 ^! @* ~8 C- Y; V' K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 `$ O% Q2 t0 ~then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 i- @! _" Q- B
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! x- g" d4 w; k' m
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ c8 S- W9 V+ V% oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ Y7 |4 P# ]3 O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 U* N$ E& n) H& e Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* `; u" [! G& S; z
finding financing.. a8 A" F2 |2 ?8 D
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* p8 c7 v  d( I! F, c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& D. Y( n* E# u: G1 S
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 |% J( N) p/ ~& m0 K( E
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 _6 Y& O, }% S5 u5 p8 G5 fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) P- x: T7 P4 s( Q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  r9 B% M- {" j' k# S% `2 |& w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 \1 p: c) r! g. @
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda. q( ?6 b! `  n
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  z3 |$ d( x6 \: j- w, K; i
the Greek default.0 J8 ]% {, q/ }- S% R1 a
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. [" \7 o+ j1 i0 c9 F8 p6 C6 F
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default- j# n1 @6 _8 `" V' e% U
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! @& G8 v1 X0 ?debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 c+ `: O% o# |6 s) S  I" x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
6 V- S- d4 o6 Z( Ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ a* r5 e3 z8 e# K# |( Y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.3 _' f3 {. U6 @- z

, N& @: m0 }! S; t' u! @9 kBeyond Greece
, J0 u, X" \/ B0 X The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 c+ a; {, P7 S* k4 u
but that was before Italy.
; p; K  R$ }, F9 F2 p* { It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ H+ w; U3 [, K. |: t7 {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& V1 @5 d1 o( @$ Z
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
* ]3 W, P! H+ W) @" M/ u  p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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