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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& Y8 p8 `, ]' D% V0 k  a" w

- G, \! y8 t$ e! F2 |: p& V% _# `% ?Market Commentary
. Q5 y6 h4 I5 d9 @7 nEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, {# |$ d0 E4 K- i$ J) v! F) w6 h1 X; gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! G- V+ r. g6 y4 V; Q" ]: N
Signature Global Advisors
) ^* o. G0 R3 s: w" h- c6 g: v( d6 X" V7 H9 K: H

# w& G, V3 ^- F, DBackground remarks" d/ l; n* }( U& t, J7 T
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 \7 L! C. G, c1 xas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 w% z+ T4 K  {4 }
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 [) L0 b1 g% [/ j* Zadjustments.  {. [9 F8 }; o7 D- z0 }
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& C. b; D" w, _$ G  Isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# ^* C* ]) s+ ~
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 L% D! b, f' Q0 plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
# x; Q7 s1 Q3 |6 H We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) S. i% J" r: p3 ]/ A" g
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; S0 F1 A' m; O! o Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% t8 a) @6 w. s/ p" v5 nquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" }; A8 a: S2 _7 |3 _ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; M8 {6 {# e9 a, y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have+ X& _. M5 B' E0 S* y4 N
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 {0 ~+ G5 d4 | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& _: s" K  S% J  ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 L/ h5 G: j) q$ ?
impose liquidation values.
! f0 |. h, k1 I6 B# p, i/ L In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. A, u: z) o3 ]$ Q. W; ~/ vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ q; U% v! v) j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' t' q. h: ~  |1 n8 \* e; o2 Z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: H$ C: n9 f% @/ ~+ l9 Z/ W

. @+ f  `4 P6 ?: p4 j( NA look at credit markets, x! s+ X# G4 @+ f2 B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- _& N9 g2 }% Z, ~: c0 q8 F) p* }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ W) g6 i8 f# P, `) R+ M High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ t. p0 Z' ]* B) o# v4 I0 Y5 V, Cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) o4 U. A+ U7 W: n8 S8 _' o2 R. y, ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 e: ~5 D, U0 {" C+ Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 N) }  {1 w) z4 n. G
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" L1 ]2 @( T8 a8 I5 c& O4 npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ x" P$ J+ e5 O! O# s$ m' z7 F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) {$ `- m* I2 w& k$ o  v! O0 wfinding financing.
  j1 x0 f$ t$ Q8 I Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) }) i! N) o: F3 `( cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ P9 z2 a+ i2 E) C" |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) G& F8 W$ j+ Q+ @4 e, }) r! J: K
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 |: Y2 }7 ~* O( b
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( L$ Q$ w5 f) v- h' I3 k, r9 Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# y$ \! o, B  } European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) p  s+ u& r! G. H- n' c
today.
9 z: h1 p/ _+ O$ v) r Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% }$ ]+ y2 [  L) |+ o: demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 c& `: q' w+ c* h; A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  x9 C; j" G5 M5 B& ithe Greek default.
( ^  x$ G: c# @* y; R" } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, q1 }5 S& F' B' n% p
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ r& c6 x( G0 s* R/ N
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign& i9 M6 R; P, ]* S+ r' l$ r& y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- s7 f9 I& H% D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 B7 Y: @+ |4 o# u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. b# z; V, |; d( c0 F* ~4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
( ]( P  {+ ~$ X# _
# ~3 J) w4 P4 r4 B+ s4 q7 YBeyond Greece
4 [) S6 }" k$ z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 t  K: K0 l) F9 }. e7 k
but that was before Italy.. B) ~0 U/ j+ Y" p9 h
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; @+ A& d- J. }8 _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- ~2 N. O3 \  Y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( M* O2 p! H! P/ j8 J
) L, N$ `( B4 E, t7 S  c0 E% M0 B
Conclusion
) m8 S' U* @# y* x; X/ _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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