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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 ?. M/ M# @+ x. h$ S" |
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Market Commentary
- Q4 q) G5 K3 q! u* hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer. d0 W+ \% R2 e. i
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  m" i8 [# z' l7 X
Signature Global Advisors$ {9 j5 n  b& T# A- W3 {

6 \% o; |7 u! `3 L+ y3 v
. j, {- e4 J- v( MBackground remarks  k/ o4 d3 P5 F7 U2 @
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 |! |/ O' g/ eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' q! y: R3 l2 u& d0 X Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ a9 X$ Y0 A  u1 u% n! `/ l  f2 k
adjustments.9 _0 n9 |1 V5 ]3 {) }
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! r: e- `+ f3 Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( ~; ]- \7 p+ I  q6 U/ z
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, t1 C; F; {$ c
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 c: y# c% L0 Q& o+ z) l) \
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. U  P% u: a( \+ @
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: ]- e) @( |! g1 a
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% i* b( U) [- C' fquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 r; o1 b( W/ S Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ t( z/ j) q' R- U- f! ]) o# u: i Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, s8 ?  \( j; X. H, }6 T7 B! z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 X( J3 n# M/ W" b
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, Q* r5 p& E/ q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( T' }. y0 y% s
impose liquidation values.4 ^6 Y  A/ s9 V$ G# L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: ?, p9 `5 |8 iAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; J! y: F. k* N0 u  n5 Z! A- Q, y6 S
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  h0 H2 O8 t% d( A
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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$ u4 j0 u' X7 b$ E" `A look at credit markets
& w! d6 G* w1 Q: w, G6 A, ] Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' R. C; T6 P1 y. h7 _' w* ESeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 _( w' g8 K/ G4 H* r  }
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 A( H: H8 D  kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  Z( t1 n6 ]) `$ d* @billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 D& r4 I% I) O% H. Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* ^0 @3 `/ [6 KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 |+ ^; O: a( F/ u- X  R' Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* [' ~) X& D6 g9 x; ^: x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% a5 X2 D* j. g3 g# H  Pfinding financing.
- E1 X$ N& @: c6 f0 i1 G; v Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ b/ v/ D! ^, T9 `6 r' ^% ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# E8 v$ X# B5 n$ T Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 m6 G9 }" @, B' Y5 K
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* F, [/ a5 [* o2 `3 Y0 {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* T) t: N  X/ ]* ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. _" X- z5 B9 @5 d* t/ ~3 w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 {8 n9 x8 L5 `; itoday.! v) A5 l6 B  v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# L) b. X' N+ \9 |% C' X" y; Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* q' x9 H: ], j: T" V8 _ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for" F$ `  B6 F1 _' u' ^3 B
the Greek default.
9 s# p# T# _$ p. Z; l% R As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% Q0 p$ `' \( ?" h! r% h9 W3 Q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 f% I$ H8 X3 K3 ]8 f
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 t6 U8 q) y/ J* A* K! N' p
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.# V0 Y( U6 C; s2 F
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, {, @# [# f5 @! Pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 i$ B+ j( t, j8 M! E+ H" b4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# b6 ?" @/ t- E, @

+ T5 y- O! b" |$ lBeyond Greece
, E, c, y0 K3 ]2 r% o& X0 k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; J5 ?6 o$ W' |
but that was before Italy.  P, ^7 R- t% C) x0 |8 M
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ S% Q7 r& g. q4 f9 z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 C/ e; W( j% a( Q. @
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% \" d# z+ X7 I; v8 z

: M, y$ h8 j) g& ^Conclusion! L( p  a3 M/ F) r
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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