 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 k; Q# F( r2 B8 n6 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* P) `! S5 t, d* P5 F2 f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! j9 X8 ^) W' n) A1 W1 Q: K) @impose liquidation values.1 U+ H9 A% _& c2 d: J8 ~) x, _. M* x: j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" f2 P1 A7 N: x6 _/ ^/ B* ~+ q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) k0 s; z) R. i( d& y. v1 B6 W
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ l1 n9 D( q1 r; t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 U8 a/ k" B: y$ J! Y6 q
9 m! M9 I$ l+ h+ R* h2 |) v
A look at credit markets0 _$ h9 N, G" ?* K/ q! c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 o6 Q3 y6 K+ j E2 G' B2 w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ u$ Z: ] w s; X9 r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 R6 p) t, e8 m G4 z. Fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 B1 h+ _$ O6 \
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 E0 z, x( Y; m9 gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) O% w; c4 a+ c# T( {. z/ x8 xCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% G* k7 D4 G) A' n! ^; E( Tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# P% o1 ?' }- X5 M, o$ P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ M* ^6 f3 c+ y" ~# F( Ffinding financing.
' e, ^1 I/ k5 o/ L$ k. z; F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 [" P( U! i' U/ c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) G) p/ z5 ` A6 V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( g8 {5 O. H: U$ f: Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ B5 _" g+ X8 R* L8 l7 {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 ~( t. P* k" z/ {
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% d, m F0 @% Y European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: k$ g ]7 v5 \. `$ o" xtoday.
4 v' l* Z' y0 S3 H/ @5 f# V- | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" n4 M7 K6 B; N S% ?: x
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|