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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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1 L! J9 z! E, R8 z6 AMarket Commentary
. I6 t% L" @, n9 r. n" ^/ ~5 PEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: O* a2 |0 M3 v' R( J
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% F+ V" \  u2 d4 ?' j( o9 o  GSignature Global Advisors
' R! x& S4 Q+ |8 T7 h8 U. _1 j" H# E/ R- u  c; Y

- a9 x  m! H. d, y3 a" J& ?5 M  EBackground remarks! s% M; j7 f9 v! g) A! V
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are" V1 k6 c/ y7 v8 D3 u
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) k; K& z) H/ f. t! E- B& f3 E4 h
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 Q2 Z# g# n, L/ e
adjustments.& A7 V) k* m3 r) _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. a& f2 K* S5 g* y
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, @8 q. L2 p. O5 n6 ]% ]* \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* Y3 `: W4 L3 \8 H. G
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
  Q+ M' G; d6 X- n4 p/ l+ K We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: L7 n! X; g, ?+ m  W6 }
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 J2 Z+ U8 n! E# H Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 C4 U5 n2 C4 ^! k7 n
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. D+ m3 R" o* ~8 j Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 L" C4 E! z* r9 H4 H
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( G, s; S& ?9 |. c0 X
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 J$ S  c( w2 I9 {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( ?  s$ S6 @- H+ o* D0 w
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& [5 d3 D0 f" L/ j
impose liquidation values.- C- s" G( q: V6 Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% B' x. S1 N; @$ s0 V" X+ M  t* i; v
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., O5 M+ D1 o4 V( ^! B: }# l, c
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 r4 \; `) A, o$ rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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5 U* _- x$ j7 g4 X% o9 cA look at credit markets. V: u# J2 n5 d( P9 m; I8 z# E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 f5 k. @8 [. Y  A% _9 x
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! o  \7 ^" \# w; p% T, Y: G High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ _2 D/ \* C% X# E( B( @5 z/ Uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ k, K6 ?% O$ [billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 y. C* X, Z5 X1 J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( Q2 ?8 W5 a7 A0 z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& G1 h5 @& g' Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  D3 P+ U) O3 R+ \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 f! D" Q/ X) d0 Q. Y0 w
finding financing.% I' H# V8 h4 ?# G! b
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. n" s! w! i( ~+ ~2 n5 t  s$ swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 E) z; j  d2 B1 m8 m0 ]1 T4 W$ j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 v5 l/ a6 x, u* C( Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 @* g  p- b3 n" ]% |: Jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 J! J6 b8 o5 Y5 V* ^+ t! f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 H- M* Q% `5 |$ v) v- ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% q/ l! {9 y9 \2 y4 ktoday.9 M, d4 b' x: P6 |
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; w, R8 Y( a8 N& ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
: B7 D7 Z8 r( A* e) u0 x  r  o, S Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) J% p  }2 i# O" O3 }/ ]2 h* {  m! G0 Qthe Greek default.
% F0 D0 q( b( G& t As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- s# ^( V2 U0 r- W2 G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! e  Q/ J) R2 _/ T' A. R
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( }' p1 K" z/ F! Z/ v$ B$ D& F4 m
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.! E6 v) a) b) a1 ^
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ K9 R2 R9 O4 G. D  Z6 v5 kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 `7 s# }! `' y; f8 s
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 v+ P3 X/ ]4 \' d. m9 k! a6 z

% x! u; z4 J, |% l, z% @) CBeyond Greece
1 v+ d$ @) r) M$ B5 w; ~ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) d! E, i: B5 [. O
but that was before Italy.
: c/ J! V  Q' N6 P+ }0 p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- N4 i- V8 x+ F+ Z4 ]
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# s3 r8 S0 b0 d, I& R
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ b1 c4 h+ ?* B- c6 U0 {' g; h
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Conclusion8 U0 }8 E3 N0 t' |4 K
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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