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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, q1 N8 V: X' l2 o/ m) m
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Market Commentary7 D' W% K) o) B$ [" w- y& i5 B* U' W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 y: r( R0 T$ ~, t, J4 }James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 Y4 \) q1 ^5 tSignature Global Advisors
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9 p) j+ d$ t, I; b$ H  }9 cBackground remarks
1 L* z2 N# X  k1 v/ J6 B3 X. Q8 G' u Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 n) X, n% @& F
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' w3 t# |) a. H( `' [" N0 K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 `; d1 b$ ~5 [adjustments.
1 K4 Q$ z( H  z% j. k( t This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 S: c5 Q( W* v8 {% {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 j- U4 x, f  }. V: L1 U/ @2 S. G Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 L" k+ [  q% t, S9 T) Plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% c! h6 ~+ ~2 {" p5 K
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& |5 j$ m3 y0 q" B7 k+ \2 E! t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 Y' ^* ?% u- k) }) a- j1 R' ? Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, I) Y1 x7 e' h6 e
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 O; x; T' B+ ], \& n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 k& \% Q$ s4 e  p Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 o2 f+ m! `6 Yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' @3 k& \3 W% A' ~! {- u$ I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ P6 B' ?9 ^% ]4 A6 U- oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ ^3 T* c9 a; `# _
impose liquidation values.
9 g5 B/ u4 S) e2 s+ G# j  I! \/ w6 n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% J' J, H. j4 U' V
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% L5 G' A7 B4 S. z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# z3 B2 V; S$ l$ w$ G0 G$ Tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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) ?6 ?$ T6 a; C7 @) e, ?2 YA look at credit markets
* ]& u5 L  O% _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ Y  [8 F; c" ]  n3 j+ `
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. N. H9 P1 z, i- J) {: L  o; W
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) b3 _- [& F! v+ A5 \% othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 E$ g9 s/ z: y1 d  q, ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 M; |, d0 q: T0 ^% r6 g: H9 Laccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ V8 S$ _$ T3 A0 N( e# ]
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 g4 J. ?! m8 J7 @
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- D5 y' c/ |' x& G- R' {/ F: m Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& F, V1 B$ e8 X: rfinding financing.
. {+ K$ c) p3 _& ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ M! t; h3 H  k# I4 @6 Bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." r0 q$ F4 A5 m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% t7 N9 t/ f5 O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 e/ \7 ^* a- b" C. ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# E- o) o! V$ @, D3 K
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.9 g* ^8 Q' i" E+ I8 U- U( s' T# H& d( {
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 _6 r4 I+ s* ?; B+ Ltoday.! y1 f' m" R8 L" ~
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 ^% Y% O0 m% r' x' h1 Z1 M2 i& B
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
! O2 M+ W5 n0 e  s$ @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 a( K$ O6 a# |& m: {3 A5 s' B) m
the Greek default.
& Y: D; Q" `) I1 a! z# o2 v2 \ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 @: ]# `8 ^+ Z; e4 j* o) K6 [
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 I+ o/ I& Y/ I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 `7 b# @. Q! l5 f" U  B) v  v' h8 \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ u2 K$ J; @& q7 w- ?, R/ u! H
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' `5 _4 }' K8 I; H/ ^( R3 B: Hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 s2 t. _1 n) V  O) b$ s" F. v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% a8 |4 F; B7 H" o+ d
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Beyond Greece3 H+ I2 f7 R" j( h, ~
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; t- o- [! q+ abut that was before Italy.2 d  l% o) |) q( k
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% }5 {6 L9 `  |3 i" {( u- _: _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& k  u  }+ p$ a6 c. l/ y9 D# z, x% ?
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion3 E1 Y9 F3 j3 h) T+ z; K( k# a
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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