市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
0 w1 R8 T: b' _, G0 iEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
7 l1 o% d7 @& P! [. u4 T Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 Z' G/ {& p% B5 O+ U/ Kadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 R+ D) r) j& w6 F Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
5 T+ |7 p# i' ?2 Q7 a6 k# E We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 L5 L8 x. w% W# [! Aquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ J) u9 m2 R9 ]  m3 k7 I! A' Z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 [- z) l6 x& G' c( las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
0 z& v2 [$ v5 t7 \7 T; V  E In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 ^: s+ O! w! E' _August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) }$ P6 ~2 Y- |" q3 k: Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

$ L+ x9 [7 p3 @% P$ v' ~6 G1 VA look at credit markets
" e# f; {. U- m) J! K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 a' |/ l! i( o% abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 o" Q4 Q( d* ]7 A5 j: M; waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 }/ F" r2 q6 d. c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ T4 N$ M7 [5 Sfinding financing.
3 [8 W' H' w) @: l2 H/ H7 P) E5 e- B Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' \: o2 T$ U' wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 \0 n# L$ T0 o0 m  Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
; @+ g" I8 _- @! Y+ ntoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 r. T  [/ N* h) y7 c# N6 C! Y4 nemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 T8 _# k* {2 A0 d6 W' ethe Greek default.
$ t) t. E% [! \0 j2 J As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 h# S* V$ h! k9 A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ I# G& Q2 F4 \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 W* X  C: D& j) D- jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" m% O5 y5 O/ w. _4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; D! Z; P) T2 ebut that was before Italy.
# K( p0 Q; J, V6 n1 A0 E- M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 \6 q8 r$ B% s8 j$ o/ l8 dItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
3 E2 v! N) |+ I0 W& Z2 \" | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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