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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 n2 m& N. z3 c9 X
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Market Commentary
' x0 @3 L$ p6 E8 X9 lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# Y6 v7 B7 |6 S& |( YJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% c* u0 r& l) J0 zSignature Global Advisors
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& {8 _8 t1 p, U9 A* N" T) Y+ ]  I: m3 C/ V0 `' V, j4 h( p
Background remarks  V6 r( w9 L7 B4 K7 |2 D0 F
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ K# K" ]7 ~0 d1 F' X
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ g" d1 ?0 q) c1 A
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# n* K1 u% P$ r/ }4 e3 s! n: Y* [
adjustments.1 Y) ]7 ^  `9 F
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  y0 n& }8 n$ I5 x* {7 Y2 ^4 a
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: F5 a2 U' n2 x7 }4 j
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% X" G- k9 ]% y0 x( j; `
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; b, }. J4 y7 j# t4 A0 b9 a We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% q( ^$ x6 c9 D0 Oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, r# l& Q0 a! a; M7 f  v Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 D6 N* ~& l3 A2 R; kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 H4 P$ x$ f- e- f: ~) W
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.5 T& q' e6 _  ^7 x) F* `. x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 R" f: q/ d! Y+ a) h1 x( ^
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 T; Q! p' |; u) d4 p+ ?/ l2 `1 b
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' ]3 y' b& z# n5 y$ ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 K8 t6 c! c% X, J; ^4 `/ h. k
impose liquidation values.5 d( Y1 B  R1 p0 a$ r, Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 r' `* l) c; q7 a" |
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 S' c* }0 {3 D1 r* v: ]9 P. ^# t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& N! z' u. D- _  j+ Y4 |: k+ Pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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0 A% d7 T. @9 J3 k. U4 k4 I9 A* R; vA look at credit markets' O) N3 S2 |/ p8 |( W
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% v# N  L& p  @! ~) P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: D0 t2 K! Z9 d: I/ j7 N, W5 ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ n( P, v0 J) g2 f3 m# B& e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) J7 C8 x9 h5 ^9 Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 a2 m3 M2 R3 Z7 haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 Y+ L% v" T* @+ D" ~
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 H! d+ s" s, Z% A# n! ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 {# n# q& P7 ?
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ m( {( L5 ]& l- Lfinding financing.9 L$ B, z% M+ u9 q/ T' |" s/ X1 E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! z9 p0 F) g+ f: jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  l& M- |# ^9 }1 i7 H0 `; N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ v, C2 D3 k# X' Y( l2 z0 k/ D% pis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( u# Q3 }8 B) S2 ?; h. Q2 ~! agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: F9 M6 w2 V8 y7 f4 kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 h' B2 r% q; ^# V) S European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  V6 g$ b6 h2 F1 Q! V
today.
1 E) P9 F& j; s$ H; t) B$ ~! p9 B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- f+ Q5 ]8 \- J* j' X, Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, G: c- _+ t" {5 y. D5 Q& F1 w; t
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 T# Z$ c! ]' [. m/ l" rthe Greek default.9 r8 u! z6 {+ ~4 }& P0 F6 U- O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& n6 n  ?/ R2 w9 V8 X' I4 m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default8 m: g: Q* I* d+ z. l, k" x/ I
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 A- }6 [: l8 B) t4 y$ Idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# M2 @' I- l+ A. V+ _8 J" S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing0 F. U' Q/ h: g9 ]5 D
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, a& i- \7 k. \4 J& Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece- g5 h. H- X/ k6 ], x( W
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& m) {1 b  f" F* E
but that was before Italy.
8 n" f9 @3 z: |, W It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.8 e% o' ^+ j) M  V2 h. `, O
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 W- j2 W2 I8 s: Y. r2 cItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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% D0 s7 m: N. P7 LConclusion
  w) B% c* Y# F' k1 C6 A, A  T We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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