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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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4 s  n6 ~* O5 R; Q& J# q$ ]Market Commentary
# Z' E; d$ m* a$ N, e! s& I' dEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# \: A. t9 _* U
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 g" U  I4 H6 k9 x1 R) \
Signature Global Advisors/ m# S! _5 H9 n" N6 T; Z( z

0 R+ \: `; ]' N7 F; B4 r  ?# b, }# n; w& q5 r- {* S% ]$ @% e
Background remarks% Z5 M' U. }/ ]: H3 J2 W# x) v
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# d: h+ N  J; D5 o9 ]2 X* A# t
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; f% w4 m$ T  H4 G/ S: x, m
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" e+ j7 p, p9 N% }2 m
adjustments.( ?2 z  S. O% G4 f2 t
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 x7 p2 Y$ E  `. ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
' N4 O4 |( ^; o3 b6 \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 P8 r: h4 E, l4 s; Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 d* Y$ _; }5 a: z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) S( ]  B, O- W* O" padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 n5 p1 ]; r) x8 P5 w7 T' v
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 g  u8 q& h* J, N/ S4 Kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 B( _8 w' l: K7 E; z8 M8 V
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" Z2 K. R# W3 O' z  ?0 P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ x. _! @+ d# M6 K( T& S7 |, Breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, L/ I. a1 g$ E* G) q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ |+ @+ q9 d6 W  A9 w
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* D7 I. ~  d7 y7 B. ^) y  r  {
impose liquidation values.
  C5 w- U) G' l7 `) q% m: [6 d In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" n0 N# r1 `2 ~5 u) Q* X
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 Z. U+ U- D; E; c
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 n; V, m2 x! C1 o- \9 u1 C) w9 c$ sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- M7 m, t8 `6 w
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A look at credit markets
6 q- A5 @1 y; J& f- u% A Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& a" S" m. _3 T( x' d. eSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: [/ |( I  u* {  R; ~  X0 g# V/ W4 r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! a7 K6 V' s8 h; @3 [! v& K7 Wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 \; k+ R; ~& ~9 M% cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  G8 R' c# `7 w: K+ n4 G! a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 l3 O! Y9 h- _* vCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 }' g7 G* o+ O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. }5 \8 H0 Y, [0 w
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 ]2 B. [6 ?5 H( y) s1 Q; e5 l  kfinding financing.
9 Z; I6 T: s! V" W4 m& [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( l0 v/ p  F8 n2 Iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 U/ ]: b2 q2 q( y4 _! J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! R. m9 K3 u* U% R
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  b, C6 J' l+ s
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 @# Z+ G+ ^* v( F' t* g$ e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" E1 i9 h8 X5 e European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. [  {* h* {6 o* h( d
today.
  @  E( |( ^8 D4 B0 y& ?: F9 O# k Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* m) m$ _5 P1 D6 u" T6 y; temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 s" }: O. s* G  u, ]
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 y; k+ O5 h) h! T% w; f0 Z0 o6 q7 jthe Greek default.
9 I) o  h# q  i As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 h. m7 H: [4 b3 v: K2 G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 W) i: x5 t5 M; Y4 `2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- ^" r& s7 v3 F8 T" q4 j+ F
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 ?7 d4 l0 \6 t7 h! R3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 w% u" [; V9 Z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) U& O" j1 N6 O  o  N0 K; |4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 m# x9 P& y3 i# Q

: t) _1 K9 l' K  I; G& aBeyond Greece4 w+ p) @. s( C
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ `  q8 d3 P# S) F  T
but that was before Italy.0 u6 p" x8 ^# d0 i# @5 ]
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 L2 `+ ]& f. _9 c3 a3 H3 X It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ {3 s- B  T7 O; _
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ Y$ R) a' a$ \/ s3 W. k7 b

! s/ K& B8 S! S3 T9 i6 D5 A1 ~Conclusion' d$ s/ J2 X2 }/ I) z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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