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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
/ t) _  F: |, jEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& R; W7 y  u! X3 [; v, a) ]4 |7 QJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 B: _  m: _, d- |& q
Signature Global Advisors( G7 |  y5 d6 [& e8 d& E- z
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  P+ Y5 y" |! e9 N8 ]
Background remarks
7 v/ V" `) Y# n/ r, u( ^ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 B0 X) ~' g# b( m1 _
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 e# T" U* |! d! g$ a, s/ b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal4 L3 `, |' R7 M! f% W% V
adjustments.3 {% q' Y! N! l+ L4 f% s; s9 o3 |4 o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& Z, F+ c( x2 M" \. T. j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! X& \; H5 h  B  I" b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  ]) a7 h, Q7 K& K5 j) s
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 F% E) j+ T. Z4 ~1 A
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' t  i8 X4 U; _adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 X0 {" f! o) O3 N6 i
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 z& i  M) _) y: t" squantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' S3 `, h$ b& K* Y: c, x8 B6 w- Y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' d+ ~2 h$ d; U
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 x" A1 J9 \8 `0 ^+ N/ p* F1 ^
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ w) d$ a) _# [' F' H
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ d5 s) u# ^8 Q. Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, C) `  c9 k% E' j( p
impose liquidation values.6 }. Z4 M, k* o  m; w' g
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ a! [: I2 |, N8 b; n. v, X
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) h7 T' z- F4 n, c! V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- m: w; \1 y* [/ pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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3 S; O( q2 b4 ~. d: F' P0 e8 \A look at credit markets
! I  i2 m9 i7 ^" S& z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* N  r! h! J" u; `2 x  V( O, F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# E: w2 B; T. p( N( \# X& L$ F. V
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# j$ L1 y5 \, Z* E: Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 u1 s) `0 Y3 }billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% `) p0 A/ Y8 ~' {access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  f; P1 Y- z& o3 f9 m$ m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 y7 S8 a& ]! D" i* i' Dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield., x2 ^/ ]8 s, G% @. E: ^% `$ @9 ?2 ?
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 ^! Y* Z4 h) q2 @7 zfinding financing.  P% H# Z" c9 y6 P6 E& d! t
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# I8 x2 e0 S+ W9 o% g# w+ f+ ?were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: u2 U. a' B. n0 m& s
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, x. j6 Z& W+ N3 i& H4 d9 p
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: ?7 r0 z) V& ^: A% f- P
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) _# U- `+ B1 H! f( p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 g2 B! H& n- C European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 J) W! u& \2 d6 M/ Itoday.
' m+ T  Y1 k- e) m2 T, H1 Y9 s/ M, X, ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' o2 `1 T/ M. N/ x7 n' c2 P2 L
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda2 a7 A" F2 E& y) I
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' @, P  ^: `, ]- x9 @the Greek default.1 O( T. V3 m" }$ D# ^# H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! K% b9 ^9 |' _" a( F( p1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ d0 ~% K+ B. Y" l* h5 a
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: Q! n* i# d5 R' h4 @debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 S/ \3 O( Y- r
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' q8 ]" ^% c% g& C8 V5 G4 Zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* Q: i7 w% z# |  w$ K
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 t0 ~, j5 ?( U; q, C  \* ?
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Beyond Greece
( M3 s8 t7 a+ p8 z8 z1 T3 q! ^ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. ^+ H7 c1 u% Wbut that was before Italy.
, j6 u4 b. I: z/ U  s' Q. B It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% q# y. K9 `# i: p It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. t5 \& r! A! a% vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 U& ]" B8 |% O) o% J8 }
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Conclusion# x2 h0 [# M: V  Q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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