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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 s9 s5 u  {3 [& M; o7 ~: `& b: Y
Market Commentary2 T' N0 I0 v, H8 \- U  I* G
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- P( p( ~" V. F8 e' vJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" D1 F8 z: n' k. \: {
Signature Global Advisors# D; A6 O- @' L' @# g$ x

" ^. v( b+ _9 U# ~
0 D( @7 @# s. D; C& J2 }  J) `Background remarks9 t- H* J" N; G( d
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are" J0 f, x: j6 J
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( g) m7 }! v1 T
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% z- z* }$ f  n5 f  M
adjustments.6 {$ ?, I* c+ v" q$ P2 {
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" s3 g( G  }9 G. e, q% F9 g
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." e# W  O% t' E* V5 i6 `
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# v, @; `- r7 Elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 s; ?( \! ]# ]2 O7 A, c1 Z/ N
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( W5 i6 w1 n9 J" G! r
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" ]. A& r) c: q, O3 f+ M: D Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 I" N1 p. C. |! H( B# \4 _% s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- I1 Y. A% W# ]) r6 k* F% b4 A Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* H) B  I( A. d7 J; d3 O7 g* H4 K3 @
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- l9 a; h. ?/ W: @2 i
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
# T( X+ e* s9 W* c The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 b+ \+ Y0 W% I: ^) J! P9 J6 Was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# b; j- ]" ?. H1 L3 w' \
impose liquidation values.
* r; k8 s# ~$ o2 j- x) ]5 f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 ~. x9 I- |  _" cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 k! ^  v0 l$ U$ R4 a' a8 Z( \. v
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. w3 E& n4 {$ B& iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 s0 T( r, I/ s# ^% X: K, s7 S# X

+ @0 i4 o$ W! g0 s  b$ WA look at credit markets0 R$ g* o# A( l3 q% s4 d4 R+ e
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 v9 a1 E+ a- B6 f
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  F* u  b/ D0 k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; H/ C5 _/ D3 V7 Y4 s. ]' S  d& \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 D' `+ a0 Q% @  P$ G0 V0 |  _2 ?billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( j: E5 m6 C* u' E  l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) Y2 C0 e& R( b  B$ b+ a% x5 o" pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" q7 t4 K7 Y# U/ V6 z! C# a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) O9 N! c  o: t. \& U2 W Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& B5 d+ v* v& A. E/ Q, ]5 l; T  k' |
finding financing.
* l% S& D: E# A/ |( E# R2 P Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' x2 `) {) ], I- N; bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 H8 w& ~3 ]+ t$ M& c1 S
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& B6 B: T4 H' Z' {0 w' t! R1 L  O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ c8 p# G! U* C: X" w4 c; K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ o4 l, P" z" o" h+ H5 @+ Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& S" _3 f4 }7 c8 i. _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& ?" Y' {7 p% n* ~
today.
; w; A% h: {3 ]' \7 z  W% N6 |3 _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' j0 q6 {0 q% ^5 uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( d9 N! d% w8 E* {1 S, | Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: K6 W6 w* }& t: Y/ Pthe Greek default.- [1 `# I8 ?1 w6 Q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& p, L" z2 J$ L* _- y4 `1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( z9 t4 ~4 m+ `, c0 o. R+ m& J8 P2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# R1 e1 T: |5 Y3 `1 j0 X+ V' ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- x+ W" ~! V+ M# O! J3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 R' T/ X6 k, T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! X% G2 f; V: V  Y$ V
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece( R  \9 }+ _* R4 B% o9 E
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 L! n& e) K5 j. z' ]
but that was before Italy.! d3 o& Y% |9 @2 @6 j2 N6 I
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  P1 a8 j5 N1 V% w% H
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  w" o+ {) k  \; J* w2 I
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 R" D8 T1 s3 Q

, T: Q* K6 D2 Y2 w* ~4 P# E0 z3 oConclusion
9 M# Z0 ]# v4 ^) ]  u  `) A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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