埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2359|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 @5 p; h: z, L$ h6 E
1 S& Z3 x: D2 j  C
Market Commentary
* ]3 h2 p1 X4 Y* H' `Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% i4 B( y' K% X& @2 O5 D0 {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& t# {9 E$ {, O! j3 c
Signature Global Advisors
, O3 B) d- M; B  t5 j  ~3 M! [
! q7 ~/ ~: R) Z' L" W
" R0 ^8 g( _# U6 N2 IBackground remarks
7 x' J/ m: v9 i1 l1 ]2 e Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. R- C4 t0 }+ H" \- S
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- U3 V7 c* a0 a0 o  Y" T! S. g* E Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 H- r- ?' K& E: F/ A
adjustments.- L, F! i0 T6 B$ I5 x, @/ b/ K
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 K- e8 K* h. y+ c& |3 Hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 V" l' D% a( P1 v8 e
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, ~- B, a9 U' a& `! [7 z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ {, N( t9 q& @7 l
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) _  f/ m9 y1 f1 f/ b& t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 C- T  |, W- N6 c$ y( D Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s- K0 r7 r! w" G9 I
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 N; x; O( r5 k
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ x4 s' c( |( @2 }) n
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ t( G7 s4 X/ Y# K; rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" Q: b* ^& G2 L/ {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ I" n( T( y" t; ~' T' Zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" R0 T! k1 w; o3 x8 Ximpose liquidation values.2 K8 \5 j/ f0 B7 I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& a( v0 e  j& M3 o( i$ k2 Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ v# x9 i" y5 V( r1 G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 y0 \( o( e9 Z& \* f1 Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 D/ R6 O" J& a
( d; P9 R. [2 F7 j$ [  }: G3 R6 JA look at credit markets( k; @# T& J% E( s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ }5 M1 Q% ~/ V1 I1 B' y/ h  pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- l& m! R9 s; }- H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ v5 ~- e+ H0 l8 Y7 o: s! Sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" H1 [) ?1 x: F% U
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 f; R3 K$ \3 E" D" A( naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 A; V1 M+ R# `) Y8 h: cCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ D7 n! H  M: n" y& m5 |; N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( a/ {) T8 g+ L( }8 k2 n
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 T  W% [8 w2 x  ]
finding financing.
2 C. Y+ I1 d# W: {5 q. N Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; x6 r1 G4 [" j2 s4 E+ w5 X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ M0 C$ x1 b' S# ]$ d( `: u+ t
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, F: f' J3 P9 I  [2 y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& e) e% R, z0 b& {8 b. i7 g* h
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
' O- D% L. s" kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ t5 T0 ?- g6 p  J8 B  N European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& }( X- a; ?# p1 ?9 H+ x6 Y
today.: g9 Z5 D7 |  f  m% h
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 [7 }# O2 Y# yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ p, [, ~. R9 l  ^% n
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 ~% m* j- {, U$ z4 X  K8 R0 `the Greek default.
4 k5 ~* b' ~; J  i As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 Z3 s: K7 R. }: w6 B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% w4 L% G/ z) p5 ?) H5 f% X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 Z1 F; h) o3 n6 n) t% R$ B
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; B, _9 f: Y! B8 Z+ Q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 \+ o6 U/ h! O- Q7 N
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: }4 P0 ~! e- }  [8 ]& z& W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
( x' D8 i8 n5 l% \
1 {7 S" g2 z9 b) U& NBeyond Greece
3 V. f$ m- Y% M; Z; I, J The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," t- S: C1 d% B4 X/ L. Z
but that was before Italy.
( {0 D* ]; t, e  p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 P! _/ }/ M( D: b+ [* W
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ I; U9 S" _- k2 T# O
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
* R: P' u5 U  I+ U/ V  r* P+ r9 N) H4 t9 K
Conclusion' F8 O6 Y& P6 u7 X0 M
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-16 12:13 , Processed in 0.091680 second(s), 13 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表