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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! ^. E, C( |, T
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Market Commentary
, G  p5 F! L# [Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. R7 J& J- k+ n$ Q8 O% oJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 j7 z5 P; `4 ^  k" A
Signature Global Advisors8 W$ g. P& f. Y* g0 ~: f9 U9 J

4 ^0 ^) s7 ]7 _
7 w7 A4 ^- v! z; D$ C7 T. aBackground remarks
0 A" \" w0 m( ]0 h' V" P( g6 l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 S1 c' v; \' ^4 F3 m; X! [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  W7 {* W  _5 c" z Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 t% d7 F# ]! z) x
adjustments.$ s8 `% v. [& E  j
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& A& J. }& B  G5 h
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.4 t. o# K6 H; F  q; ?/ G
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# f0 S- ]6 L6 ^8 ?# G# {( U8 g0 I" Hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.# T- I# L& G6 N( u+ w- ~, \! h
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. m! R+ v  u& y) b8 ^2 ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 n( n' z" Y6 ^1 B
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 D. }: d, l5 H: _! c/ E4 Bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
+ R" d) e2 O3 w$ C. q- I- n: k Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ e$ O& q3 k; ]6 a. Z$ C8 Y" l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 `; _3 S8 Y' xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. b! g" F: Z9 F7 p4 [0 j* t4 A( K; \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 x+ c# C9 z* Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 I0 z( X) j# M: l2 }6 Y6 [( V$ c$ V; }impose liquidation values.* K. W/ O: l" ~1 V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) e% e1 A" w4 i4 X2 a/ R  ]
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) w6 B, N3 s% o8 S1 H  s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) c2 j+ x0 q; N7 ]
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 r6 |' m/ J6 Y; d2 d1 d

# v$ K- A4 b2 {+ x. RA look at credit markets
  ]6 }9 I6 E) _7 C* l3 m2 [# ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 e* {# ^1 @: R3 y/ V: M3 E$ T* kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# u+ R9 t; S$ {6 T& R
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 e$ I. Q% S. o6 U1 ]6 T3 b' U+ D5 \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 L' G; n) T! u
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ o, d. @) F  }2 j! F! f2 caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 ~- Z1 s/ X6 y; [
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' F. Q- P/ o/ X0 e9 S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: T4 p% t6 j! z; r* c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; V. n; N" [' e2 j! X/ h
finding financing., E! i; r+ r( o* m2 \% U9 j, D
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 X# {' k/ }6 s* |5 j
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) |9 R2 O5 d2 |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 h- s: h1 J% n% C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' }3 \( G, ?1 Z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 ^1 l. X, \3 G# dbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! C# {5 h# p( z. W7 M; n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 f! m- z0 q# e/ m0 f% Utoday.- a1 P' r- q5 L3 S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& D8 k- Q; C' N
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 Y% R6 y; S9 i  a5 c3 G Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for3 Z) J3 I2 b6 V" v
the Greek default.
. G7 {4 S' o. W' h! @6 }  x( L As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* C9 G: F: E  W2 O! r- w2 @, H
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ L" P9 o! ^7 M7 k/ N  X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  M6 G/ X# W* _2 I& K2 I; ^4 q9 @( bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.; c2 W2 F, |; h4 P  o5 [* ^
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- w; u4 m* J, e4 `2 S& Y5 g- ]+ nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. {7 a' b- V3 ~; C+ q& N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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8 O& k/ n% N! O+ x- jBeyond Greece$ a2 F' E" l, [3 ?1 P
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% Q7 C3 |5 d9 Y, M' M
but that was before Italy.
; R$ h- m+ N9 |! c! W It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# v$ D5 X% @; U( u/ g5 R0 b1 [% G( H It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% A0 F2 ^+ w  u( j/ nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 v( A+ Z, b, ]4 J0 R

3 b# |3 p, I# FConclusion, t  B; b  a; f* u9 g% d
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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