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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
( `8 A- G2 i- [, d* d' z6 DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ l2 c+ @" p" b5 G, n: i2 \! d" Z, [James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 S8 h/ E+ |: j& h8 l: \7 l' jSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
1 S7 N) T, M9 P3 E2 u$ X" O9 v Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 f9 n  z* F; H: G0 W' x/ nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 ~; V  o5 k2 C4 Z- A- d3 k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# a3 }. x$ {. e) Z( y1 m) C: `
adjustments.
! U3 ?4 I0 m* {* q( A This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 Q; Q2 _/ [0 G( t! i; E' N: Psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* `) Q& t7 b9 y. l" z, b5 V* j. W Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 s1 v/ V; `0 Y2 `0 Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! R! S5 u7 c6 i3 ~5 l
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) ]0 f" u1 `. p! K! c
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 s' X0 a; b- R$ e5 T
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 y/ h1 S( G2 z$ h  H
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 r7 b) g: y9 ~/ \* O2 I4 D
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ Q& f% n1 I7 w0 s( I) f
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& w4 j: _  Z6 E) h, S: t# z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 d( o0 G) W% b% l  g( U$ S$ j' ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) `6 M' P( q$ A% |6 N( y7 G; J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! I* I( u1 R0 l* c! m5 }impose liquidation values.
7 \$ Y; h3 ~, P In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! B( R8 ~, `% F( X$ [& ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 d# K/ }# {' Y: [$ z# O6 q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ x: _8 D5 _" l2 L5 Z$ g; Y# {# a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 A* n1 X/ ^9 V5 ^, D  J" e

3 m7 h8 D+ ?3 f+ v8 s. ?5 ~5 HA look at credit markets
. P+ ]& S" o1 A% T; ?3 \$ r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 d& w/ ~# J# QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( T- c# w4 P9 p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 V0 d0 j7 C  {1 t" N
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- ^+ @" b6 s/ W+ Q% t" }8 ?& Bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 o7 U5 D1 G+ r0 G8 E
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ \) S  m, @: p0 J1 K2 XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 O5 V0 Y1 A7 V+ mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 S4 D. m. p& P# M& x9 U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 z2 H/ w  [( w7 _- q8 z0 b
finding financing.% R, a2 B- q* }( A! W) `$ b! t2 Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' r1 e. e: V8 f0 u
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" K+ e  `! k6 K' W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; k( C3 M3 T3 i5 z6 [is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- M% ^9 @, D; W; m  U& }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 T! F6 J' M9 I  b
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& S- u6 [# v9 ]0 D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, w* H; l  z7 E! d1 [  `3 C
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 {+ e1 h# n# x' b3 s% t. r Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ i6 P/ ?; o) X( N( o
the Greek default.% k1 T! \7 Q: t  I% @6 I( J2 [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) u7 ~$ L( V: G3 p6 v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 G4 _7 {3 f/ x3 |% m
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" y' X8 ^% e) a' p. s; o  jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.- X  i2 T! z2 r5 _# n/ s; m
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- j6 e$ H/ f* S( }* Ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# B2 l0 \, G4 H0 b& G2 C  Q- I& n
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece4 b- q4 V: |# a: u( B1 f/ l" N) ?( U4 y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# t+ l5 `, ]( I; I8 F1 obut that was before Italy.
: _& z2 W. j: D8 I+ j3 k It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 G3 r2 d7 f2 a It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% l& y* m" r9 B/ {* @- c9 U
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& B7 T& w! `# e; K5 Q! X- N
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Conclusion
8 M4 G( n- Q$ Z4 K& c. M: @ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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