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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 T4 u& L  l' ^* ]3 {7 v
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Market Commentary! e- j  J& Y  Z2 B
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  J' J" Q% U! G. E. }2 }' SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: {& o! k0 I; Q* n8 ]) VSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks3 _& z, R6 S5 B. q" t3 a
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# l# E, d' I' O2 i5 |. z( pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& l- z3 f) `- m9 `
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 c4 a0 n& {2 F+ }5 k- A) V
adjustments.( g1 S$ @8 ]3 \5 R& k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 S( Q6 |3 d6 y& i9 }safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.2 X0 h4 [% r  a3 q; Y
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 t9 \, [, v* L7 d
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( [) G: C# c2 B4 q2 Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 K* M$ U& S9 q  m* D1 xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
+ u$ p, s. I8 | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( E8 i  t. O. h5 y& ~% b+ o
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  ]( r% P9 Q) }) a
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% L" O& @0 ^# U, W
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& ]8 n& ~! X1 y" Z- O+ t
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) ^/ }# ~4 Z. F9 a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ Z$ r5 W- n$ G" q6 C: w- z) Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  |: Y" [6 E+ [6 \& ~# t  `
impose liquidation values.6 D" Z" Z% d0 i" `, W% j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) w' g6 ?  I5 ~) e0 kAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ r0 \0 D* C. K! d' y0 l; G' H The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# v! F% c5 _" f, |/ @6 P8 z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
7 n  Y6 {- \: ?% j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& r: w3 W1 H9 G' P. c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ w. C1 K) J0 J$ u2 q. x/ ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- O7 z7 ?4 V% R; H0 B1 P  n
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 S+ S- g  E! t% Q; Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! m) b; D6 P- t& D) `1 ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  o$ z, i) u! ?7 W4 P* oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: A8 {1 {* H' _7 F1 P
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: A% L6 x  y3 Z% R& U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& U) D& V+ K7 ~* z1 b; p; y" qfinding financing.$ @. _8 R+ ], [. S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, z: h$ s' w6 b# X) v6 ?7 R! U6 X1 jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- j0 r2 P% M. p: S" T' g# k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, z4 Z. d1 w' v7 Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& D+ ~  y8 [) o7 @( ~. ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ i, d3 R6 V: Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 }& e3 ^0 {8 w5 a' f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& l: E" i3 K: \1 S! ntoday.1 m3 m" S. N9 ~3 B. ~  L2 r: z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 \: D( Y) S" f; C5 |+ R( lemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' V- _) a: C5 ?: |6 P: W# C. a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 d6 R# v( {9 y% p+ }8 c
the Greek default.$ J$ Y1 Q/ A  t0 e( j
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 H  h6 I3 x/ x1 l+ Y
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 w0 J1 p$ n6 ^/ `7 `. J
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 A1 x! W9 ]- l/ kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 [$ \- ?3 l4 q8 ~* g$ E
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 ]7 r6 N: u' Y3 a, ^banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* t0 E) l" `6 Z( @
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ U) J, C" N5 L) V7 S4 n, a
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Beyond Greece! D! `  G# ^4 l+ t. w
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 F2 B8 V# O# W) X% T
but that was before Italy.
5 o2 I0 ]9 S* p( ]- q. h$ X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) z. C$ v) f  y  Z" R% ]
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 q5 I' |3 Y# D( E5 PItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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6 N# I- T; ~$ d# [  {) i5 z5 R- N7 A- M/ tConclusion! L- G. V1 k2 C) ?7 K
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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