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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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  e9 e0 Z' k% O$ aMarket Commentary0 N, U: N. ?0 g% W) D& _! t% R8 ]& A
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% T4 E  S* z9 v; M" d+ n( }$ HJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, p% }0 F) M: ]( GSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks$ a$ q/ H# w, I3 I+ j/ N" @2 F
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  G7 B" o" Q+ L1 N! g) u; k6 O
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., C8 L+ |$ Y7 X! A& Y1 B
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) Z5 T. ~# B5 V7 ?+ `6 S! _) `
adjustments.+ P9 a" G, u: I6 l" u7 w7 Y2 a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ k- I- L# b4 j" W9 |0 ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ j4 y/ O: J+ H* Y( }; }  T' t6 t Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 x' t' C( K  E, Olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
3 ~7 @" Z3 G. J We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 r) j: Y; T7 ~+ J/ R; d1 d7 s9 P* p/ ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 y/ X" ?+ p/ L
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- M# O) x6 `0 t$ e- l0 M" gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, s5 L) b2 \  N: X Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  \( o$ b$ ]. F Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 _! O6 ^4 z% p; F. A2 H
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation$ D; M! y4 A( ?; P
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 `- v% @4 ]4 M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- s' z8 n' A; W6 U8 [7 H
impose liquidation values.1 H/ w. t! X7 w9 ^8 G) C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 y6 E- B: T7 w
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) O( K  L5 |+ X7 l; R* O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 X' m! o! Q2 `: w  x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
. H4 ?1 ?$ G. {. N- j. h* E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 l$ m5 e7 |) |9 ]. l, e5 F& Q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) V4 K4 P9 t( \, T High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 M$ W) R8 r4 ^: M, cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# Y& x( l1 I& `: z- r2 N0 b9 U0 Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, Y+ Y& z* c4 Y: q, U! P# w; F4 H( @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 f! x# F8 K% V5 A  KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are  M; A! P! U. [; P# f' K
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 ]+ f. K$ W( f' h1 ^/ f
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 G! k7 m- }6 Q6 M6 k. D
finding financing.8 C! ^/ y* z* r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) H- p5 D' A+ |7 U, P# }4 U$ E) W" owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# }% I2 D) c+ t& c, u- j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 P9 l* S( q* n" x5 Y- gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 T. G8 n* `: a( D
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 s8 u& O& r: L# E$ X, Z
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 ~8 ]% }0 ?/ }# s! U* L: { European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& }" @8 S% ^! |- f0 M, p' }1 A$ _today.
, x* k0 b  k$ L Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 u2 }) I5 H/ y! }' `/ @0 j
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
; c) m" n% M! ?% Z0 W1 a& \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
5 i' B0 H& p& {7 u8 E* u" f0 Tthe Greek default.
: a8 [  b- L* ?7 h& Y5 K+ q+ H As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 }1 W  j) Q9 o" j4 I; Q0 f, [) n* O1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ |. K; _2 ]+ Z, M2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) N# h$ [2 u$ `3 H3 B. Odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.; b7 n& u- `: p4 }% H
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: ]* Q) d4 d) }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
! Y. J" n% I/ I0 N- R0 _4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. j* u$ M3 M% H- I9 j4 _0 S
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Beyond Greece. T2 S- f! W5 z  l6 f
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* X* w4 V3 q9 A' a/ q3 Ebut that was before Italy.: \9 H" h& M* x/ u$ r7 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 w" A: k0 P3 B+ q9 K/ B6 D4 o8 c, r$ e
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: r% `5 P  E+ Y$ |
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion/ U. D+ t, S$ k& l5 _5 z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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