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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
. [; j6 _6 o: Y4 W1 c3 HEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- g3 |4 J' M2 x3 Z$ fJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! g" |! Q9 M1 O* d# fSignature Global Advisors
$ n* B( L$ F7 ^# m7 k0 V$ Q; b. z( \3 A2 b4 A) J9 ?7 Y, W

9 b3 M& k. J$ ^- \$ f9 y! O" UBackground remarks# d, w: Z9 I4 p! r" c6 k/ Y+ R: Q: }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, |) K- B4 Z+ v/ has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 G, X2 E7 p( Q2 V1 P/ q* ]& a Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' B3 f# L# y, H6 m9 Uadjustments." T6 O' [* X0 @
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 U3 H+ U6 h6 }. isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ x3 Q* t. v  Q/ k  n Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 e( A, Z! m8 F' V" alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
0 `2 S$ Y9 T. e3 k3 z) x! I We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) s7 Y( t# z% Z) L% {2 s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! g" @6 _& E' ]; O
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! N' M' B; O" n5 \: \/ I
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ y( o$ G2 `# U0 q' c Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 H% Q8 i! A: Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& l1 {5 H4 Q/ f) F4 f+ `& t/ C( Hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 U  R5 C6 w: S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( n% a% j1 M' f. l" vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 _8 K) G4 M& E7 C1 jimpose liquidation values.
2 M- f+ U* D) }- v, X! H9 L* G$ } In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 N8 q0 F6 e( n$ i' i* ?8 ]2 @( bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 d5 j& {& f$ I% K9 \& R( A; w The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ l! N2 C5 u. c  xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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/ Y( X' L4 e! ^, s. U' w& p* fA look at credit markets
6 u6 ^: F, @/ n" t# F Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 ~. _8 N( \. z5 i2 k! d. o* `2 L9 m) }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# {* |& \& u7 d5 g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( }1 `) \8 r4 Y" D* L7 [; tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. g2 V: ?: ?4 x4 ^/ Pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& V0 i6 H# Y/ c( w* a' C' Faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 @7 X: k$ l3 I/ B  u1 h* oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" G, N. ?* B( u3 ]1 x$ T! q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( E, y) j) E2 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 X+ d9 F4 g5 c
finding financing.
' _& S8 {5 P4 A# Q' Y- x8 g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 u# i9 n  {- K
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 H# e6 Y' h1 }( i1 |- U* s" D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ ?. H# A0 ?! X. L9 c  Jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% e+ `  D6 |* S- M* j. n# Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: _4 _: `  X, G  ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 P6 @' n  B+ n/ d% ~- {6 U+ L! z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 K: X. j' ~4 otoday.
/ m) S8 P0 v& L  d Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 g* X( x; z& F+ V/ p0 |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% s+ t1 P# J: C: Q, ]1 v$ L9 W' Y Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ X6 h, J4 e, U& |the Greek default.
8 L  o' ~0 y7 C. X$ t4 L As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) S+ M$ b1 g/ N6 i. v1 `1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ E+ t# L3 }) G# D& R9 m) `2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 V8 F: S' t. H2 j
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.7 c: x1 X- i. b% L, e. w
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# u+ s) q4 e% n  Z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- T/ o# t3 ~9 K; n/ V7 `
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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2 P& C, g! Q& U: q$ D% b5 nBeyond Greece
1 f- x' `0 Q  S4 p& x4 f1 s The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 x& g& V( H# c& a  M  Hbut that was before Italy.
* {" z* m% C3 o2 e; l It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# [! U/ }4 v, s$ [ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 b4 t( d# c: e  y% N, ]Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 U% K7 E# R9 |: Q8 [6 y0 k

' X) P4 T$ G( F, k" h$ DConclusion
6 m" R3 h0 l' T" O We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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