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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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; \8 F9 r6 N& uMarket Commentary$ J) i6 z% i0 ~1 w
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: n1 r3 J9 ^8 ?! y  W! wJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
; {- ^5 I1 U1 S% ~/ d* }Signature Global Advisors0 b" x2 [2 n1 T# Y* X& Q0 T- x

$ N0 R* w5 h0 c! M0 B  G$ \7 \! l6 ]: W  U, F
Background remarks
8 J. g$ |; T# A! U& U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 Y  W% d  V+ M& t4 sas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 B* |+ h+ f, r: ?: C0 T+ b7 P( ?# U0 c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* g* n" Q, m9 Q6 Radjustments.& ^1 T, G* F! B+ E; K' S3 |" z
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 k& x7 f- U3 H+ csafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.5 p; g: _! `7 X$ N9 ]0 W+ m3 V
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 R5 \8 v7 a- K4 j1 C) }lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: }' c2 d1 i" W0 A! J We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( u9 r6 b* a- Y- Q5 u$ ^* T1 B% L
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; R" j5 U; R2 b% `- W5 b Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: T/ q) T' v- h$ aquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 R, v: j) l" P8 B# I  s; g
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' t8 a$ D) X1 \ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 U) w# x& u9 d# _- o5 S4 |9 areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 N( Z+ k. ?5 ^) | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ l. h- h7 G3 f2 i% J0 Qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- a! ]; d8 |+ x8 ^) x
impose liquidation values.
9 @4 v+ f) p! k; o5 t7 { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, L( n6 F  \/ t) E* G
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* A; x( G7 o, H4 t( O The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! r+ w* Q& I  c7 Z- b7 B
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 ~2 L& w8 p' W2 d5 J+ a2 S

' h$ i$ r/ q/ {7 n+ gA look at credit markets- `  X, V8 x4 V' f( {1 W& a
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( A! `) t0 t2 {, v) c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& R1 ?7 I. m2 R* e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 m; a' q9 k8 \- C7 u9 xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 n. W. h0 ~! G' dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 G) n" Z: D  P5 Z$ t: G' I
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 y$ V# z$ u, {$ g+ x/ z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 _* q) T4 R* p' Spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 R8 |! T( m. v" c! @4 q( ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; `; [4 {: `! ?7 i4 g  yfinding financing.
9 y1 g! q* n. I8 p Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* @: |. ^& l+ q7 e5 ~
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% T4 q1 B4 H8 _& |  x Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 _8 F# g. C( Z/ S
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& o, S3 f; T! A$ l
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ ]8 f: x6 Z" l/ Z6 ~bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ _4 B  h) z7 J, @7 A$ L) n. d
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, s4 O1 ?: }$ Z
today.6 E. s2 \6 h* ^2 M0 {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) i/ u! M0 ?# s% i& D; g* z
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 E2 E5 J  L6 ]/ @7 R
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ B+ q! c9 d# w2 o' z  n6 @% B/ |, x
the Greek default.' n) C1 V( g/ L. W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
6 s0 \  o0 p3 z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 h2 H+ _9 y  v4 y6 j2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ g# B' f' q2 n+ c! Hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 U) i: l. V. K$ X: D' p/ z- d' U) B
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. X2 y& X) X4 _& d/ I
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 s$ {' x! t. n# j- X& @
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
7 T; S" n# u0 q' G The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' ?1 T2 P# L% e# R9 C9 d" P/ C
but that was before Italy.3 u) _+ X5 j! q+ p- Q4 V) X  E
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 w, s" M) ]( L* {  i  E6 [
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& I' y; R2 U* P7 XItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion4 e- s) j/ v# O$ \! p+ P
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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