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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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: m8 K7 V2 ?3 @' n! WMarket Commentary
7 D' S. H" ?& GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 u1 Z9 I/ l' E- b" d9 u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 B( O9 a# k# s( }. b( S8 |Signature Global Advisors
3 x% m% H& f" u# E/ g# T+ X' C+ K- F9 j; Z

( A4 ?! v8 p& B' |Background remarks) u6 s2 D) c$ |; z. G4 l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* o2 N" R9 G2 Q" \" K4 [as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 n7 r8 R* s* w0 m/ ?6 x6 k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal4 E2 _/ j. @  R4 z& n& l$ ]# a
adjustments.7 f7 O4 }) E2 I* y6 Y# H
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social# {' x2 l1 q. C- h+ ^
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# Q7 u0 o5 ^% Y7 Q& Y. U
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( i; J* i% \" b5 D/ a: Clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) l! Z. [( w% {  T* q5 S& `) { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- D' H) x& c4 Radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ J/ L6 c' T5 O4 R; i& C- t. _
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s  T$ O& t5 Z2 |6 ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 q3 ]  r' o5 S2 p# t( g- B Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% F- r( R" h8 t0 y% T) |
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 g; N9 M3 j* J' n: M- H$ N
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) B' P1 c; h# S7 [9 B+ W# n; Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* F$ q# M7 j$ j7 Y; Q3 ]; v  W/ Las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  x6 p# K! ]. h& q4 Y4 qimpose liquidation values.: y; K, }' J9 l9 J# v% ]+ I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; I' V/ r8 {" j$ e' x3 g) |4 FAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# r: C/ O) W) D% `7 z( F# I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% H( }  A# g- k! \6 L" P
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., `8 ?2 J& D- u) \

0 L' E$ n3 j: E7 u' _# _A look at credit markets
2 M# L; {- d3 S  C. W7 |3 D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# q4 x( w4 o$ U2 y9 B# j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 U4 B8 @- E) D% P, _; C4 i
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 f% r. T1 u9 s
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; Q# H! K/ T6 r
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 v" S  s2 h- M0 A& `
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ |9 e9 j! N8 {& r. c) M5 Q/ CCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ c, z$ w+ `- |( ~( H! N( r
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 I& [3 g3 t8 g! X; Y! [
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 ?  |( Z! O4 B/ X  n3 G5 u; S) N; ~" qfinding financing.
: j0 V/ o/ U" p/ v  F* `" x+ t7 i Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) i4 k4 c  V0 u5 A; {6 E/ L6 Z! dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! U- N9 ?# d6 {2 U5 o% a Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 j" F" L7 q7 R; E8 n0 qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. ?8 K5 A. B2 `) O( v5 i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  I& c* q8 Y* f0 L8 o7 Q( L* P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( p, i0 j# h8 U( H3 I7 q, C European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) l8 T8 \1 g0 t2 x# j% B) xtoday.
- \0 S1 j4 v& P% O Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 o( A: p0 u2 t% C4 N" Gemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 \: ?5 f8 r) x$ _. h+ U: ]) B
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ ~: {( e  a4 P& @the Greek default.
$ A9 X5 H8 e& s, E$ X# D" C As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 A2 m" T3 c9 w2 P; U1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 A. C- @; O* N- g% q' b
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: a( @  X- ]5 Z; m( ?$ Kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 ?4 _4 L, A* O  w5 {5 P6 x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; q8 s2 s+ o/ u& lbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years3 W/ n+ H" p% F% w- F
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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( X$ X) h# d; j/ G4 q( CBeyond Greece
3 K5 d) e- u2 r# `0 p3 ] The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 D9 K) x% s* N5 X7 y/ J
but that was before Italy.
5 J; r& C. T2 f& X$ b It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) Q3 ]/ e, Q+ w, h( r3 s0 z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- S, n+ {1 z+ q  O' s- L
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
! k- y" n4 J2 y- T  ^% e- e! H We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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