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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; g+ L7 M8 @1 L3 n
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Market Commentary
' R$ R, R2 r% d0 f2 \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& t1 _( e+ @% L& w) u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 q- u( U% w( Z/ y) g
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
6 W- U  ~0 P0 A+ ^* Z; S, }% C* R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% C+ ^. x: d# c4 y. M
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.% k6 G* n+ P4 d. k0 ~9 M* b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal: `% V2 p  p  u& N! U
adjustments., ~) m! f7 ^) \$ d* O+ [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ h9 g: ]0 s- M% l) \
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, a/ i# H" [5 W, g; T) b% z5 @: ~ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! O+ u- [, M$ T3 r/ X" qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( C/ N5 @! F0 m: | We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 c0 i9 N$ l" \( N5 Qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( n: H. i4 |2 A# }$ @6 f7 I, M Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* D/ u# T! ?) w  c7 i
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., ?0 e* y& G9 g3 I1 C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 ~4 l5 i2 L% Z- Z! U. V: L Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( U. g- K+ _1 u/ G
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' B+ J/ k3 _' d2 u2 ^- j1 X  \8 l; Z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 S& ?9 K8 K% J8 L7 E4 ^2 l  J: ^$ O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& Z/ K- t7 Y& L( u, t0 k" w$ l
impose liquidation values.
$ E; K( |' e( E; v$ d2 Y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; I2 a) Y1 W5 y8 T" l" G/ q" JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. Q# f8 D( q/ w! g" T8 g0 J1 f9 F The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 o* ]5 Q" c8 v' b; R) a, L1 n  B
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! n; b3 E0 a# T' g9 s
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A look at credit markets
. p, U/ w2 b0 [* ~3 X* c# l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 |0 ]8 V, j0 c+ A& h0 |$ ]
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! ~7 h7 O4 ^  ?7 X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 j3 |8 b: g$ I$ Z0 o+ }then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. [- D% h# B3 l& _5 Z' wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' N4 _  R/ e+ iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' U9 V% d+ O. @8 d- }8 w* N
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' t# {8 F- _% q$ spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& b8 C% s5 G; i* ]  ]& c9 T1 g
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. r9 X+ H+ S4 _7 j  T, }finding financing., ], \- x9 s; s) B& p9 i5 i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 H$ j5 r. w8 H9 {
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.3 G/ s' o3 f( [4 S5 i, k  _% x2 b% [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 s5 t9 O# Y( z1 i' L: Z# qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; a0 ]* Z# U$ |going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- \% d0 {9 u5 q! h+ |' b$ V
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: N/ A; V8 r; w0 g, I
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 g! K" n# m7 Z
today.1 G/ ^  W8 Y# N8 g: Q/ A
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, Y2 N' |5 A) R6 q& Y- r% i/ Semerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! {; n% c1 {$ p  |/ y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  {/ `& l8 q$ u
the Greek default.7 r  F9 F! x+ h% b. |
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; A+ _2 \, I4 q7 a$ W$ a/ U
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; s$ V4 \8 r. B6 Z% T/ F; j& K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ a8 @1 e+ ?- X. I* R/ h7 Z; {debt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 N( Y) d: g  @2 r& @! n8 S  q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 o& }! a* H* V: W8 c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# ^- G, o/ }' _/ ^3 P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
0 \7 h) j2 B/ b* u$ K The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: h& s& @4 m# l; D8 c/ B' o0 V: H
but that was before Italy.% q7 s9 T* ?8 K0 W" G9 `8 i
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.8 h9 p! s/ D& `6 S* ~  P7 K+ @) k
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! s7 a* r; w' g5 LItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% _+ Q. p% H2 u3 `) ^
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Conclusion
+ s- v' {- Y+ @  R- k We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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