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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: Y  q( T% Z+ j! w2 y6 a

  a: s0 [5 J" l& aMarket Commentary2 k! f$ f, Q/ k9 d4 l! Z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
8 C) C) v; ?+ e6 T) S+ G& l& v9 \- mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( H+ y, Q* w3 g  K2 W. R* V: j7 j) M  I
Signature Global Advisors8 c$ H1 N+ R4 v4 @& E: N" }
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$ L' s1 M. |3 l0 @Background remarks: o, {2 B( M/ Y) ]
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 |: u/ G/ w1 g3 k6 D6 ~' _as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 R: i, i- u! Z& i, I/ F
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 s1 n! b7 z" @adjustments.
) e2 B" N7 r( k& c; P This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ V# _! l7 D+ M! j. Z" R" P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 G: Q+ D7 P' s8 \7 k Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% i) |( I4 B" o. t1 [lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 j% |' o) n* x/ h$ @' Y7 t
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 p8 p8 G. ^$ o6 f& h& C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ u  o3 L, I5 {5 O  y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ L+ z7 d3 i9 Z. {quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& n, }9 o- M6 [. z* w9 ^. t& b$ c Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 @; s4 n# C5 F1 J2 |% L5 ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 j9 F6 V& z& M
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
( S& I  \; H& f9 _# O" P3 s$ C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" v, |" }  W5 ?$ C7 l- C  T" bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) Q6 y" q0 T- c% O* @
impose liquidation values.
* ^$ o/ t3 U# R* Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& G! |% U# f" z! i1 E- UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 P( y& r- x  U# s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ G- l: B" U$ d* J0 m5 q' g: B# @3 q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. H) i6 B  K5 K; h3 [A look at credit markets& Z. {5 \; K; y; L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ F' o4 C& I9 ^& i) p( ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( K# x9 T" O! c: F+ g! }
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! `- T: w. ^+ S+ Y" ~then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
7 k; _" l6 d( e2 mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ I% \) }3 _: m0 r3 j7 maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& {* F) b$ T2 L
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, n. n8 k/ H  Z  p/ w0 t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% y: z9 g% ?8 R, ]1 q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 Z( Q* [, r0 V& G4 tfinding financing.+ g& L7 ^1 F  [8 x5 }7 }' N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; M7 x' z; ^; |  I0 U$ Wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# V- p2 c$ @) a& \, q3 |3 X0 W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  |4 [- @' b- N% ^
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ A+ x7 W1 ?6 A1 K2 @going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: [3 ^3 \- U3 k: i/ h' `, u
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) T$ U& x: y9 @. U' e. h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 }& T5 @  q  w7 i( m8 Qtoday.( j' F: w" A# n7 K( g+ f' l5 S7 a! Q
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 k( g' _4 @/ y* {* s3 Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 W4 |( N# L4 Y) d Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 m9 @( R% v5 \: Z+ {
the Greek default.
8 ?  O4 H9 c5 W3 L0 t5 a1 M4 @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& m( }! P9 C# Y" X1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: ^, V9 y' A; M7 U6 Q  N& Q  }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ _7 p2 I. Y2 p7 R9 vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* K1 [5 ?1 {3 B3 J9 F; t, `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' W# _# K1 w+ d5 {; ]1 `banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 M/ a* B2 W1 v2 p3 D5 i
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  e. `+ D, m# S5 j: n! C1 e; i
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Beyond Greece
& @+ M  T* n- M; w The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! T6 J  i3 E( C% Lbut that was before Italy.
! m2 W" G, E% C' U9 N( n+ M+ L It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 b6 }. k' R' E8 B! E
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 \1 d2 A7 k' i: _! EItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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0 M+ M4 _* m' [/ {: F( _# dConclusion! S& c  B' F( n# b" Z, {! S  U
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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