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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
( _+ s  }. O2 l7 a8 wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' E+ F* ?7 }6 {6 |
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: I+ j/ ?  F. z; Z& b+ y! m4 B: q
Signature Global Advisors
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) s6 f2 X7 n6 q  K2 bBackground remarks' b$ _; |3 \! u9 o# B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
# j& l4 L& N0 j) H9 gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) e: b) s' I  F+ S Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ J0 g9 m# K  F3 G& g0 W! v3 Oadjustments.7 N! S& j3 x# T2 c
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ r! \5 O% m8 O$ W2 D5 D6 t
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 z- d% m( d; \! h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- h- w6 x+ y% \! d! g: wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 t; d0 w& B" w
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ f; ?& t: ~( o4 M* C: z2 S& T: ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." t+ ^  P0 e" X& c6 i5 V, J/ D
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
) `+ W+ s1 P! B3 pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market./ ^3 B# H! \. }& ]$ H$ O" D5 }
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 E+ N- B; ~8 r* J9 ^7 `% A Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) I& F& R  z5 G" |  I2 f
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 B9 Q$ H& u" Y7 Y  l8 |/ V
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- a2 x# ~9 B, C* b5 M' l0 h0 z9 _, i' P
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( K* |$ t7 V. I1 Z
impose liquidation values.; H( k  q3 v8 w  @- c! D
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  r6 z+ K. ^  a% D! ]+ B# [  k! bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  ]4 n" o/ |2 }9 x& W8 a1 j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# ]! D) l5 C, O4 n5 |0 _! m; Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets- o, H3 ^' R2 M; y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# D" \2 G" `* D. o& j5 Y! ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) O( p+ Y+ }/ M/ v+ K; H High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) ]8 W" H, D! r/ |
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& T! R/ G: m( S3 L5 I
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; R$ A4 Q/ E/ n  A3 faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, d9 j# k& c- b" l/ r
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 R2 m2 Q$ F( t  i0 H
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( q0 X  `4 e) V' S2 k8 v/ P8 J6 y& D Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! I' d/ f+ ^4 o' g7 q  w$ bfinding financing.
* e2 B1 e! v; d2 [' |+ v. q Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ G- B( o" \. O; d+ F( [were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  M% t* y2 k$ O/ E, j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, t5 A. s3 R! x: A/ B' B7 i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 z* Y# ~) v5 b
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! U) ^5 V% Z7 U4 `4 j, \. Fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 q. r9 w' l1 k* y+ _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 [# |! f0 p  U" i$ E
today.3 ?# T1 A! G; N! w# k8 D3 ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 z6 p; ?- J" d3 F5 `/ Iemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 G8 A6 m0 {' C4 H; S Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
- H- S& V2 D7 u. D2 `/ xthe Greek default.9 p7 A2 j, y  I8 O* [( N7 d
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 d+ X! y, G4 V0 n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 W0 T% s, b4 ~) r! Z, M' q$ o
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  r* j" u* `. v' M0 O; h" i2 bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 s0 o6 O6 j0 [( [' G4 L) h8 o
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( ~% r/ [, G$ r! [
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 @  V$ P7 r6 l7 v7 m  _1 z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 {" E5 V6 `: i% }; s
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Beyond Greece
  q  N- l0 P+ j& H" A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," O& a5 [0 w0 Z2 U6 u; p
but that was before Italy.
/ e' A  E/ f, n/ {& w( |7 H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  z" w9 M7 j6 c; p  B7 W& X3 r7 U It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
6 r" Z4 I0 H1 @9 C& L  {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 d- e- U; A  [/ m( z

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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