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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation$ ]+ Z, t1 @% n, w& J+ f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( Z6 m* W$ r, C' g+ @: n! I% ^+ sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! u$ {/ r: c+ _- l. gimpose liquidation values.9 \+ q/ o8 y; o8 m+ k
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 E$ M- m, t4 h6 |/ uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, W# g( X9 C+ [. S8 d8 K The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 W) G$ q% X/ C) ?! ^ pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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~" H/ n/ k5 Q3 p {: p GA look at credit markets
+ e, \1 I5 Z' A4 p( Z2 p. o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! S! I7 u1 Z: D; l& Q" k$ E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( |+ U+ G0 u% Q8 b$ Y* n) w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 f5 W" { h4 n! f8 c7 t, A# T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ v1 j( F) c3 D- U9 Rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: I! |; G1 C+ g) g1 H- @7 a: R8 M4 N( baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, G7 }; u2 @& JCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ }) d( s$ v2 n$ [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* Z/ B+ H4 c! X! o+ M9 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble P2 D. R/ x; t; H
finding financing.
& B" w$ M* ^, G2 L4 x0 L+ C Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 M/ y: t! Y" e) v) s8 R) y" e
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" M8 }3 y0 l' O5 V" s8 K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 w p- u' j. n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* n& P6 |; Q I+ Z3 B/ t
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 [: T, T! z0 h* n' |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
o, Z: t$ Y% \ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 @% k, O% W0 ^. W4 S
today.0 F+ w) H+ p9 X( Y* f- c0 ~* A7 I
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, j j/ u+ M; E
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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