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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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/ y# c5 i$ i  e, S4 HMarket Commentary+ d& [1 A" t9 P2 O  ]
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- n- m1 f. y4 y4 U8 A& [
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
- A4 k- \4 c0 pSignature Global Advisors4 h9 Z7 D& F! }* ~7 W6 h4 J

5 }% U# F. U0 z9 }- i  F- }2 b4 j: {3 S
Background remarks
$ p  H; H& u' } Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
0 d. O" b8 Y, f* a1 {as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 W* D0 E$ U4 j6 x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal, Y; T1 f4 z/ E9 Q
adjustments.5 _- D/ _% E1 |( }; M+ x& L
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( e8 d9 ?# q) `1 C6 ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( }) f5 p: P; p0 T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ O' a( M8 I& K  I4 @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 J1 Q( D+ Q* W3 a/ T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ f  t! h! C# G1 q# D3 {' f- j
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# O, m6 |: t# Q1 w# x  W2 c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, U1 F  b7 W* ^! B
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
8 X- S" |) ~( B( d6 b Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 s; @0 Z' s# \7 E7 j Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 W* M2 h3 H* m5 f3 z- Ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! c5 J4 t' I5 s; J
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( @' [& R$ L2 I& A$ w" H1 s, d; Fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- P5 H9 T6 l$ E9 b& O- b1 M5 L
impose liquidation values., \, b1 q8 E% F
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) j$ G/ B  d* G+ J) E2 RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.7 `7 w3 P& e+ T, y- S6 [7 X
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: e6 I1 k! @1 y" {1 H/ H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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: J+ D' n: c  s" r* |A look at credit markets, a3 I5 ]+ n4 P- i. r5 ]$ D; [2 O1 E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) F& r! ?# l4 g+ l0 u/ T3 xSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) a% H& x( |  w  `6 u
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 D/ K% p2 i; Q! Ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  B" }5 ]& E5 Z% F2 u3 p, Z' ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' ~( \' n* b# p4 C( A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 Z  v% r) _- ~- D) x2 T
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 H# j7 E* ?9 a1 o7 K; W3 }
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! _- T# s6 {; V+ t2 q  y7 [& j' A9 J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 k5 J# O; F7 U3 f; ^
finding financing.+ s7 X0 l$ C4 k0 K/ f1 q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 m0 ?7 u- u' e! L
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& \7 D1 }1 N: d5 E0 g% a2 i
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 k' Z/ O5 \0 `! X% h+ [7 V% b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 b7 Z8 [! P% E- D7 Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 L5 h+ v1 r: A) `+ _1 |5 v- O/ Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 a8 E  l: _# Y9 A European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: B0 p3 H- `$ e/ K% o" r
today.
7 d  c- \- Z1 {" D4 T$ m5 s( \7 M$ g Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  Z+ A2 I) j7 s+ k9 q( {+ wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda+ N0 |# T" j: \4 u# b9 x
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for6 F1 }" U  f' _8 d2 e/ W& |' S8 x
the Greek default.
& K: r2 F# w8 w  ?3 F5 _7 Q$ @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 z5 a1 ?3 |( L$ Y& l1 A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default' G- i, U, w$ n/ Q( w+ `5 f
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 F. B+ {4 R+ h8 ]$ e( c2 k6 p
debt stabilization, needs government approvals." ~: Q2 q! |9 U* G/ {9 s
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ @0 [- o: e, P9 ~banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 T: u! n: X" f7 Y4 N. G  P' E
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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1 X" n( m" z! x' Y" i# CBeyond Greece7 J; J2 H  m: V& h/ c* ^& I
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  \- i- u6 t. k/ _% Tbut that was before Italy.
: Q2 Q* ?& `5 R# a( `8 i, @! i It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.5 Q+ G2 b. z/ a: [- X
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
& Q6 t- @& J) Z: Z+ a- \0 pItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: \; G5 f+ Q/ P5 L; z. E
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Conclusion+ }( X5 r1 o! P  z% G
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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