市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

& r. U6 R5 `4 E7 e  w, C- q& VMarket Commentary
5 c, `) I; h: P) i, i3 w4 lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ ~- _; o, z9 vSignature Global Advisors


# |& W2 Y0 X" J5 V; G# EBackground remarks
8 ~4 u$ V3 K, L. }: W Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
. m- `' N" `+ ~ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* y/ b) R- m' ]- s2 Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. e4 o+ d' B" G9 Y, T- xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: H$ X6 M6 m4 T& K) z( f8 \. ^ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! X/ g) R3 i; `& n' |5 cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# Y$ B2 k. x$ |8 S& K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" q+ |: z3 t) t& y$ Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 T5 x& F. H6 m% v, D8 l$ Fimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 T2 D, o' A0 T  ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 G' l+ M0 L$ L1 Y$ ^scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
3 G. j) z4 |6 ^: r/ U3 j* P
+ a; T% r5 ~* AA look at credit markets
2 }, y# d6 \* j" A Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% t2 G1 k7 O+ c8 }' T& TSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. ]$ {2 K  a/ s/ l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( a& J2 U! }' d% r- Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 J1 t4 Z1 D- q5 X6 F' KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( j" x% R9 S# [2 W. r6 cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ K! j; j" H) {# K, ?7 g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
: _" c9 [) [% }3 W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' W6 Q+ @7 y* C7 X2 \' vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ H) R, A- h+ U1 L9 m* o9 |1 S$ Eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* N2 `* F$ F- L. }* ^$ E8 D3 D* ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 ^# r$ e+ ]* H  pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# z+ T0 W/ y7 ctoday.
! }6 [$ K5 k: v# `; P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  d& Z+ T# m( \* \emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ Q7 C' w8 G- }; s* ^" j0 x2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* ]  i" s) |- ], _' i6 ~debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
- r6 _5 m- m: K* a# g, w( s
* K6 g) X' D# n9 cBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
: g/ g6 T; p9 c, m1 P) _% h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 c% \, C: V2 Y, K: ZItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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! ~1 s2 G5 i- H8 x: N, J5 \" @6 wConclusion
6 e4 R$ F/ J( ? We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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