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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 U/ x0 q" U( E+ m" F

1 Z7 v. ?( [, wMarket Commentary& Z: h/ k7 e) A' q: Z- l% z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! c. |  L" Y) l) dJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 a/ L' I% w( `' b
Signature Global Advisors
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. B" {2 \- t, n+ FBackground remarks& V# I0 S3 C5 X: e% f9 b
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) g! Q3 q( S3 O3 b" N) I, {
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., b$ T. z: b+ m3 b7 B9 c
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 k  `5 S1 L2 r- t9 u. g, Z6 [' p
adjustments.
* J" X: E% x3 B2 ~ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 g4 K: m2 |# ]& O1 {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# {9 H! Z: Q3 t+ }1 P1 X/ K0 Y Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# G- m4 K- B0 i) flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: Y& [$ W; q. S We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: Q: ?1 e: s% \0 _7 m/ Aadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 B% E9 s8 B; \* F$ c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- o; b& T5 N+ T$ [& Dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- l3 L6 v2 w0 F0 n" U
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.5 n6 k2 T0 J6 [9 r' G+ U
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 U7 G5 H. b! v7 v9 a4 O
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 d9 K' k( {9 X8 r3 m7 V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* D7 D. c0 }( o4 y, V2 Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* E$ R6 {7 [) E' Rimpose liquidation values./ I$ p+ F+ `0 O4 J: Q; p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 q1 E5 _6 W9 q( n1 N6 g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 q4 G' X* q, I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% H" U7 L( E! z* d+ p/ U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 ]' l# |; s. F# j( K
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A look at credit markets4 e, P6 H, i& [: Q5 L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, r1 i5 D( y, j- C8 f# I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( J- ^$ _9 b. s5 t# Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% q, B0 w- k8 k! ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 D9 t6 l# ]5 J$ q# w" R( Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( K- F5 H/ D, k1 R' p
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; A1 Y4 z) d6 s+ u
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 M/ V( R. Z$ R1 }# U6 ]+ Q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! e  O: m; l, u- Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% Z( }1 Q7 k4 w( G' {/ _
finding financing.
" X- I5 u9 J2 f: C# A) F# X Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 @0 t4 X& {. ], s0 ~3 ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- j3 \4 \+ S9 D: z$ y, W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 {3 l6 W) b- @" w# J( uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) Q' k7 V. H: n, M' Y: ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 w0 E# Z& |# b* v. r1 C. B
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: t$ @( }) c4 O4 b
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
; ]# f( y6 |5 b& A$ @, J1 ftoday.
' W8 @, a% y$ |! y3 g" F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 N6 Z! x% |5 f. o
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 r4 W0 H# p. M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* I) E. u; N7 _0 }the Greek default.3 f- O% _# H- f, z) p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 \8 O2 N& T0 O. T1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" a  q9 E5 K& R6 Z4 H8 p
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
( \; x# J8 |- p, E. hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 ^4 S& D$ w, d2 G& ~7 d3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing, b5 Y4 w4 I! x+ N9 v4 \3 D$ C
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 G- ?9 S9 w" p% e2 Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& z- S" p5 [  r/ D
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Beyond Greece" t: z/ N. ?9 i  m+ d2 f
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! Y' e- D( C# O' p
but that was before Italy.5 U. E1 W" f* E4 K, W; C; k
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# y% N7 h7 T0 ~6 E4 K
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the! c4 I4 i6 A+ L* n2 n+ Q  b5 q
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion& u8 \* v+ l/ i- Q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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