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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary. k! w4 S9 |9 L4 \3 x
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# [0 C, X$ z/ \4 v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 ^0 [6 W2 o) n0 ]5 ESignature Global Advisors
+ P' C: T, a+ i9 `& L) s  T
. N0 U7 m2 S, I4 O. q" ~, A5 S7 `2 Z( b6 w+ M3 ]7 k/ \, f+ g
Background remarks
* ~# o$ r! U# f8 p  j/ S7 w6 D Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
% }+ {9 `+ s! J. W" Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., o+ H9 |( D" U; S
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 B( D7 `! \  s% p. K" w) H
adjustments.
- j' ~3 E5 t# v+ b" ~  h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ W; C  D" F; I% J4 n9 f' W, P0 e
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., ]8 f. w- _  v" l( H. G0 l
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 G1 i! C1 S6 U/ V
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." a8 g$ N" ?6 |3 V# Q; k6 a) s
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: A- m1 j# B* b7 }# oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- F" V. t8 v  x
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ L, y/ V. `; T* o. pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! _# w; {6 T; C+ `8 I4 S Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ w$ j0 P# d0 E% ^8 y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& v  I' u# U4 C) b/ J3 j4 U: u( R* }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 r( W) I" s5 y, S9 S6 A! p
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 P8 |: c7 e4 u4 I& m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) [) k0 P6 a  Oimpose liquidation values.! y* I8 G$ e8 m3 H  c
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' ~  W" T& o( n. p' v3 [/ KAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 c& p$ S6 [9 B" A
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ u3 K" B, u7 V$ r( |/ K! z: a+ `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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, B- W6 T$ J9 E* s: k! SA look at credit markets0 F* g+ \3 O( D$ @& \
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ ?9 B7 t- a/ G7 R; g$ v
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ h/ l# Q; _3 q7 I High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ l7 V; `$ T: w- J2 L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  C/ K+ f; }8 Q8 W" \billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 e+ E- K  x- k2 o: j" X- s/ haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ H1 O# b3 |$ m7 i' o' j. C. TCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 M5 A" E& E+ U2 y/ D# ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 L# ?; r8 b' D) ^) G2 a2 @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& e" a& ~6 P& G$ f- L5 Cfinding financing.+ {! D3 e' ?& \4 L) y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  M* S  c; {. f2 P" dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' U& n1 A6 ^# p: U( ? Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 a7 [% |9 T7 B, g; H7 D5 Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 }2 W4 Q; b7 D1 ^; q3 egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' g( @; \6 B5 B5 K0 J+ s
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, n  ^" E, k  m% x; K0 }$ U European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 k+ c, b6 R3 Stoday.
# C( L- c, S2 L! N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# Q$ u7 T  K5 e. e3 _* ]$ Gemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" s% a" `9 ^- c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
7 n/ x' r$ h* h- Bthe Greek default.
* E& R9 G" e2 e As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 W) c1 K$ ^; F& A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, x4 M$ [+ }4 K! t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# x; g, s( M/ B& [+ a5 u- S
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 B( f5 E" o0 t+ {
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: i$ S) Z! N' ]9 N( Y3 c3 |' j) _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years3 K2 M/ b' C8 {+ S2 ^' E) c- h
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.4 O( H- T) ^6 J2 h- p

3 S9 H3 Y2 D3 U9 }- zBeyond Greece+ m. C# w6 _* o; F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& w% A" d, }* v+ z1 e* T7 W$ U  W
but that was before Italy.( T, M5 n6 d! }- p; x9 t
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 E' Q1 R: @" J& R- Z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: O, I. }( _/ {0 b
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! w6 n- f# Y& A/ f

8 [% w. l1 N% l+ j" B3 iConclusion
0 h. n3 B3 X0 g5 B! t6 b We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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