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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
- W/ h+ M6 O6 {+ U  L9 OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 o, r" l, y$ ?( b# s' G( N2 e
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, g0 w0 w2 Z9 l$ G& U/ `
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks2 W6 c3 k$ c3 w9 v% n6 P9 V1 W
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 r: O2 w5 w( l+ k3 x0 P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 j$ x2 Y& D  B* c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- q$ q. E( T+ [6 N1 ^
adjustments.
" C; c8 R* k/ Q' B6 i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& L: x$ t7 j0 u7 \6 qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. u! Z3 c6 X+ h7 R/ M+ F
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
, s/ q  p4 t: X3 g+ ?9 }0 Hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. l4 W$ j0 F4 e6 W7 V! t6 f We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; f& Z+ P9 J! t; o
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
+ f/ o8 ^9 X7 P1 Z7 m2 V1 G Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
9 {, V: B2 b+ j1 I, b! Jquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.  U6 m( G9 m+ c; L" _6 ]7 B
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ {: a6 n. O! U# L Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have% g1 e# J' _2 f) s: E
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) U5 e  q3 v0 |! W/ b, u. }" ~1 e1 w The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# x- d! e# j6 A9 E1 E7 p
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ g/ ~+ K: m  R  d9 Wimpose liquidation values.
4 _1 V0 V& ~" `' D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ s& G" W& }: e: x, H$ e
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- D: ?/ ?. t! ^
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 @) q3 B5 I" ]+ v4 M! U- l1 gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  f) O; y! Z& z) Y1 T* \" C% Y
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A look at credit markets- w' s- h" k0 t( O, k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# ~+ y1 q4 V1 \3 u" ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* i" C! Y% R+ d; d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 u9 F  D& z; w1 I# y  j( p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' @( B( r: o1 Ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 o0 y8 w5 P* t; s4 B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% @; u' C* A* J  B3 T6 O1 hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 D" z5 D1 K- R) M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* u; F2 y7 y4 F. o2 E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' N% k8 T6 X# mfinding financing.+ n& p4 q* n5 y/ I' c6 k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ @$ f( p/ W0 g  F
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 }  o1 {1 K" ]6 I( P: h4 m% f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 ]5 e  h1 x' @1 C/ L/ @( B) g
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* b, R  U, }2 U, n3 L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 d, D& A& V9 s6 x$ t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 @% }* a4 t) ~3 q; t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* z' Y) ^: C" i: p: _0 d# |today.
" M% v, X! w, F. G( Y7 |9 b Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- c9 ?8 w. Y2 Z7 N' a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ h7 N' u$ N) I0 h- I2 `2 I* s7 \. }( z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" O3 p* e: P; o8 xthe Greek default.0 X2 A0 W7 P4 _+ }  X
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! A; [" `$ N8 x/ O
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% n" H6 [! y; ^2 \4 u2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* Z+ v& u+ {# N: V: j/ \) b
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% m- ^! e) ^- [3 u2 o9 Y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) p. W+ f* ^. ^5 R$ l6 ^banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 h: }+ k+ d- @1 ~4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
. d. l( V% E) z% v1 b9 A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: S( y( V. y; F" [  l
but that was before Italy.( K( p+ L( s3 c2 C
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! k9 v7 S4 c0 b6 C' c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 z& h/ C* R$ u5 |8 r4 IItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ l8 s: R* ?( `5 W
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Conclusion
" E7 u4 J! Q/ H5 l4 @& A2 ?2 [0 [ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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