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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation$ f, ]! d: H0 S; i
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long o6 N* A4 ~: g! q# r/ @- u% G* ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; v" ~: J2 v% @( \, \impose liquidation values.
6 r% Z- q2 F" z2 G$ `, G; V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, F0 ?0 _: T) i, q) F0 VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 l- L- v7 r- y, [0 a' A# {: s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 d/ M0 ]% k+ _" bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 {3 G) y7 o5 N3 W+ W
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A look at credit markets
2 I( c/ ^+ d$ _$ w2 |" N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 L _$ O3 y! T: P; t4 d
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., K/ ~; e F# C% H5 w% }1 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: {& H/ ~- U* A7 k: F$ R- Q% ]2 h
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ W% ]7 S3 ?/ F* _- S7 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 t7 C# T. P, [. ~: k8 @
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 c2 q5 @, g. \CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' Q& c9 c2 L& o
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ ~! F& _ D2 a/ B
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( [) C3 W8 w8 p$ n$ B; g9 n
finding financing.
0 ?1 t+ K4 J8 @, e Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# e2 z! T: z x" p* o) {were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; _; h) h0 ]3 w. ]2 n% f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* X8 P0 W0 b! A
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 _" q# z3 B }. s- x% s; ]! Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( R% m; o) q, C5 ^
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ o. g. r# k3 O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 K) w5 |" y) I, h: W' q- `6 W
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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