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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 o7 D) P& i# M, o& p

) g' D- t3 @( e% E+ z4 l5 GMarket Commentary
: @" h) B4 A# f& `Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 Z/ z4 ?, R/ L( e2 H
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 Y5 B; z6 b3 X& w; O, y
Signature Global Advisors( I8 P/ e, M; G& b7 k9 N

5 Y6 u& t, @  c' z2 C% I+ |$ g% ?# h0 c. ]$ ]! B9 i
Background remarks. @1 W$ v$ k$ Z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& G$ }! E" e6 e/ u
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 a. t5 ?' U! t/ j5 H. q( X
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 c& A* T6 P5 J0 O% L1 T6 t
adjustments.
7 y: t4 D7 A; j; i* k5 ]  _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' x5 S8 D" n1 H+ E- V' L$ esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 w5 y2 v5 E' U# o/ G  l' ~' `
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 _) n5 H& R& c4 Z: a
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 u1 W1 l$ L6 V; k% M9 x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; J+ p5 o# [( a3 D; `4 ~/ u& n; u0 D
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% ^) e/ n  S- ~. E) x Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 L0 E; @: A7 `/ g) B2 R
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market./ w7 X* n, D4 J8 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 Y. ?* C/ m  c Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 @3 r0 @' Q6 Z4 K% F3 c# areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 |& A/ Q/ p( ?& y7 f' |
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- @) Z9 `4 T/ p, U# M9 c! e( p! ^/ Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; d! T; k5 s1 \) C' y3 l6 f
impose liquidation values.
& E2 q. r9 i8 g In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' y8 R0 D  i2 x1 N- i% d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 ?# V( q- R+ B) a' I5 T The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% t% G4 {" N' O0 j$ P2 Hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ N3 a) i0 X1 |8 A
+ X( \, D4 J9 y0 R; B" R' O" N
A look at credit markets
: Y! R# \/ T! ?6 h: @# S Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  V7 }' c9 s" V; C- rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 f2 X8 G" }* J' }' S, K6 X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# k) ^4 u/ b! F/ ?) H' ~; w
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% z% w$ T& R) X" p0 @billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! X) C# z1 H, X1 T% G7 t1 g$ b
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 p: Z8 X" ^% u8 GCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) L2 W8 x1 i" F1 K8 n
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: U: Z) Y5 o9 w& c: m/ m: t Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ N, o* {; q" z0 v( s4 {4 J- O/ Q
finding financing.# H/ Q& i( E- J6 b; N" e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( ~0 J; s' I( Y* C/ e( X2 U
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 q  D, F/ ], Z4 P9 V! Q$ |3 E Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 j4 g' E' R! O/ c; d! n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' V. m( V9 ]& ^# k, mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 p& N2 k# F& t  Abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) T5 ?4 `! R/ G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 {6 J" {( `5 B! |) E0 f. N3 V
today.
, Q& N' r, @' {- |& B. f! n- v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 C4 b; I4 u- R/ d4 vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
; w1 }# l  \0 N+ x' D Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; N7 z& T2 z5 Nthe Greek default.
: g& c) C4 v$ o( t# D, U( z As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 ?3 E6 x* g2 N; Z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 @8 q/ w: L* |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
0 Y! f; D2 M4 A' Odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 c6 P2 {4 M/ J2 F' q1 _" u
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 u& b7 J) C" m3 L' U8 Y0 u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 f- B& `$ s" [7 Y% n" u$ u
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% U! K# j; {' P
* `1 S0 P3 j1 t6 H0 t
Beyond Greece
% o8 p4 U' S6 y; I. h# ^ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 f1 A+ O; }* ]0 q
but that was before Italy.
3 U, t% X; j9 o0 d- R. u5 t. U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.5 \5 Q7 B+ y3 P
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  J  _( Y' I7 K* S# }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., }- c& `3 U( q# u( M

, e! Y+ @" ^+ t; L+ Y1 A5 n1 ?Conclusion
2 ?/ d5 l: T" j- |( _5 L* c We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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