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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
3 w, W) e& n- b
/ S  d6 [0 l9 w/ \: r/ l5 RMarket Commentary
* T, N$ ?4 r' g" _* \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 X# m3 M9 [1 W% e6 rJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 C3 }8 |( \. X5 MSignature Global Advisors& \9 C0 w0 M2 G. U: i% T
# f  T/ b% m- t  m( K# `8 D6 e
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Background remarks
' U7 e, i6 J" p% s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; q& U( t- T4 has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 ~" |- U# A2 y3 {2 \
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& h2 ]) j6 Z) x) P$ |" @3 \; Dadjustments.6 K! i/ A4 t1 n1 i) [, G
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social4 Y8 \6 z" g! `4 Q2 c! h7 L" @# F
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 ?2 H- v9 D/ ]% [1 j1 O$ v! ~1 V& u
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) J" x! N% t9 ]6 {) j- _lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* t8 k  W# U1 k1 I8 Y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 ?( `& Q) [) ]. j- f' T) g- K, Vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% X7 ?6 _& A0 X! E4 P7 T1 q/ [3 ] Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ p. N" U' Q4 C/ ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& i: R2 _' h* F9 _- f
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ w4 ?0 h& R% l7 E3 X8 m/ g# V
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 F: x. S2 `% W7 t5 \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, ?8 M3 Y, G; W* j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 T7 s1 I& ~' {9 o& @0 z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( y/ F; |  j0 G  {
impose liquidation values.9 a/ W- V' S" w2 R# S
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In* W3 Z7 m* _# J" N. a9 C
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! C. X. o2 A  y1 m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 P. a/ l# c5 ~& s: Iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' F9 }, r) m1 c4 h2 z% t7 {9 }  o6 p, ]* d4 ~: x& ^* y( g
A look at credit markets; c5 Y$ U1 r( [
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 N2 w9 l/ P4 D6 u6 q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 k) d8 p! b+ |/ I- V4 J5 N
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; a0 Q) E! Y* }  d2 E5 i  J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 [9 k& ~5 m9 U: x
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" F& q1 M3 ~- U% x5 m. o, P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 I7 k% e  ]. i! I% B% nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) ^9 `# L8 x6 m' |9 I6 k' ]/ {5 spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 B  J; ^3 {% K2 Z; p  l! }" j
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% p# v8 a- O: `& {0 }
finding financing.: D. Z" z" j6 g3 S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( k( [' n5 z2 [/ i: twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 Z8 W. U/ _; A2 Q" r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and0 ]7 L, P( {% u: ^# o* Y6 G
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# a1 ~# p' A  A0 K$ [0 G+ pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* K2 e$ ~  A" n* c% ]6 J0 s% E; G
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- ~8 ~( F, z: t9 ~& u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 d- h9 v- b# ~/ w: J& t( gtoday.7 c: H" Y0 c2 H# n: [; @1 T) [4 b
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 X9 I1 D6 c& ~" d) aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. c/ L) b. ?9 ^5 }" @, d. a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 S0 `) w6 E/ H0 q. m$ e1 J) Y
the Greek default.3 N8 \5 W$ u. C) f$ f. c
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, \3 I6 I$ C$ V( F+ C: |
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 u8 A; V7 H5 V; U1 ^" l+ F, W
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 W- n, h% _# R, vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: M+ a2 ^  a  l& }/ f7 R3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- V9 W1 o: T  A! S0 x& n
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) n! M; P, m3 `4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
1 \. |+ |- B; W! a9 ~ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' @% S; \* ^3 o) h8 G6 i9 tbut that was before Italy.+ E( \: |. K4 g0 j5 N( ~8 I( [" N
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ G$ L( E- a1 |6 g& s It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 f- z, Q2 h' i: _
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! |8 h& _4 W. i0 \

; O, K8 _6 _# c$ t1 K8 e" kConclusion: ?& S9 L; L) S
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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