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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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& L0 p4 [8 T. n: e6 i- aMarket Commentary! U3 Z* d5 A: H9 Q7 j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 j6 M/ W1 E9 w- K
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager3 N9 z7 l9 n. Q+ R" `
Signature Global Advisors
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0 I1 ~) O2 h* ~  h& w% ~4 _' |Background remarks8 j8 I& i# c' f& `" D' y! A7 p
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
- O3 Q( _$ i% v$ m* k7 Mas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 `, |+ n- ?' _- Z( V6 N
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) e0 Z3 z6 V' j/ g- A" c; o
adjustments.* S6 K# D( B8 Q2 H7 S' Q2 T
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social7 R* K! m! b; Z" }1 v0 ~
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: R0 e" N- M, Y$ B: g" p Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. `8 P4 ^1 N& S( d. E( _1 G  C  i  G
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  V" I: ]; E+ t7 q. T& I3 y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" ^2 f* X4 A9 `8 Q  Q( Q8 madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ {% @4 @+ z2 E9 `# w) @
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( {- S1 R% u. |4 f/ ]/ F3 {
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# y/ J5 E7 f, ~' w* X; ]0 i Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* m  Y! n) v/ z, i Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 }6 H) Y; _3 k8 ?8 ^reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& y! ^8 w% o+ z) G4 H6 P& I The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& \# |; k, L! @2 d5 @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ u- c6 ]7 p( o$ jimpose liquidation values.
  V& G% y& k" A6 D" a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- c1 _# P& l. |; y& c8 @August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 E  d% b3 e) T% ^6 u6 n# m( E0 j The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 X, S' A  V$ s9 \
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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& z7 S. a# y9 wA look at credit markets
! f( }1 c9 i8 L8 A" C% M1 _2 D( \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 p( F% \2 y" k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% Y, j- C& \& q0 R( ~& F! n* }  D3 O* C
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 z! d8 T- }* v, c  C! S9 I- T- D: k
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- I. ^3 V& p1 K% v
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 E8 M) M1 X3 k. Q- A! U8 \
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. ]& ?: C- S7 c1 o
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 _8 O3 B' V" V3 j6 z& v
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& r' J3 C" p; r
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ N* Y/ K  i0 Z* Q# G4 _2 W( xfinding financing.
& m/ c- @. d3 Q+ v8 K- ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: ^1 i% B5 c3 U' {: K! c9 L2 O1 ~5 dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" s1 V# l/ M1 o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: [, }! o3 ?2 h6 M9 W
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 W6 l7 s: q4 v' Q6 Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. w) k) l6 R0 I* [
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 n7 a& U& a0 F8 e& H0 H; g European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 i1 c8 s: x: V* o. }2 ^3 ntoday.  z' ~; U8 N6 H4 n  E
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% o. n6 N5 S5 k, {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; c: `+ W$ |! v  [. S: w3 F* \
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ _; X- s  W* |+ \+ [2 ?+ z3 S
the Greek default.
. T) L% \; T0 a8 } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ m5 D8 d8 q/ `0 n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ o$ }3 e3 e9 K, j
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: X$ P! p- y. P$ A0 t4 ^. J
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.' s0 K$ @% n$ Q4 v  |' c
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. R( P1 b% O; S! b7 w$ pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 R& J& o+ n2 e/ J0 [& A4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) g0 K" @* |& l+ }7 s/ K
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Beyond Greece0 F! V7 R9 B* _* b) b$ m# A
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 l( L& r& J) b2 H2 \% A/ h) q4 S
but that was before Italy.: V( c  S& t! B3 F! N* c
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ \# {* q: f. X& C- n9 Z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 Q6 t) \. J- T9 F" M8 ?( e
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.$ J: ]; m/ ^1 W! ~) ^! ^

+ k( p  e. P# q& ]4 {+ f! QConclusion
0 D, O( t/ O, z% N& R% v3 v( [ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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