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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation! p* ]+ S- n+ x! b7 w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' v' }" _7 ]9 W3 O& Y+ ~" i8 q1 Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; _ \9 g7 e0 n4 z$ b7 jimpose liquidation values.& w$ V, d+ X: _4 ?& W
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( G6 U" D! G: N; `; q) }1 ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' @5 }. J6 f0 o8 T' u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* m; }. j! j' s4 \1 hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets. S5 v8 F; u+ ~# k) _) Q5 w/ D& ~
1 g; _. g) S' oA look at credit markets- c2 X r2 z# \$ _, t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: ]# F! [# J1 FSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& z2 R% z! L/ d3 y, w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
^' p3 e0 q- l" d8 ^/ ]then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 ]6 k/ L' t, P# Y. f0 T! N2 abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) f2 _+ w$ g- o1 V! w
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& H: I% I$ v2 ?. L2 sCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* ]4 C1 m0 F! l" Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) D7 P G) i4 h8 J# l- r Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 f3 g+ P7 j( v# G+ n. hfinding financing.0 T: A: T! `7 V h7 k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 d" b) K, ?, L) |. p/ H3 Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; i3 b3 x; E$ b Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, N1 [) [7 w% S) F/ vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 ]; W1 \& g+ A; y/ _ j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 F. ]* D6 Z1 ?' s1 v! J
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 W+ `. W n2 C" y; v0 u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 {, R: i5 s4 A& M! h
today.
o1 n; z" D5 `7 A1 ~* g. L Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 b) [) Y6 n0 Z) e3 b9 Aemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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