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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary0 I1 }! u$ ]& D: s' b) g  y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ M% e; a0 o3 q! i! [
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! c7 V% A; H, B1 |& W4 U/ h3 ~
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
7 ^3 v, w, P1 A$ V5 l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are8 n, Z8 B7 s5 R- M% J: K
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% B  T7 q! S) x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. y5 |  _* ~& f. D6 M+ Z) @
adjustments.
! Q! i2 A; S# o/ b5 Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
9 ^* |# r8 W( h6 i6 V- rsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# z) Q% i5 A# [) N- n3 T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 \7 H7 K+ ~! A0 m; B" B1 m0 S+ ?; c
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 m0 a2 l' o) a" j) i- v) J6 R We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; K4 @6 _) m) m) h. F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 x# ]- i( ~2 h Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
  e) b8 ]5 y; ^( Q8 C" Tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 R1 |8 Y/ ^7 x9 J  k2 ~9 o1 v Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 v+ @" E( F/ w  t3 p% p
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) a( K- i! J5 f) I7 g7 J2 ^
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) s) A- {# z: Y# p3 m4 h4 p0 X
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
3 D1 l( A$ t1 A5 {1 }as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& ], e8 ~; M5 n/ R0 y$ Rimpose liquidation values.$ v( i% X: a2 w8 ~! S6 \- _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  q# K7 p$ k7 ?8 g- ?
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- [( g% q, q% {, z  u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  z: x' H/ w, i% ~  k; l" Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: p6 u3 h+ s$ H- h0 T4 q
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A look at credit markets
* i3 j' b. C# w+ \& v! D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' X8 c. y+ f- r% xSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; r# _4 x. `* i7 l1 I$ ]5 f* h" y/ o* t
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( k' A. K! d6 j1 |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) e% t& |9 w4 }% V. e6 c1 w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( C  O- l- f+ v, n) gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 ]# k# L! ?$ c( M3 ^( W$ k. M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 I3 j0 w- \/ `' b( Y2 J: ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# x# J$ E2 t! B) Z+ ~$ J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 Z- i+ g0 d7 l0 ~: w
finding financing.: y8 \4 N0 z5 ~1 \8 y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. J$ A% |$ T: Lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 S5 }9 j. Y- M0 V' {# O: o, k Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and0 S! g1 @# [- G. n! L0 q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( q4 j: m' N) k' v0 x% W2 \$ V. K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. T+ w4 _7 [; C% ~6 e" Jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. t7 F* _/ L! X( l( X$ b3 f
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 O( ~0 g" S( x% V4 W7 i
today.
# i( b% E% v6 X) m7 d$ ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 z- a1 M1 D5 F# c6 @) A: X7 Eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ c! r+ _, V9 c3 ^2 ?2 G; m. Q! { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# @. \" B# u. t" W- Y$ ^+ W
the Greek default.1 o, }8 I2 ^, F0 M$ v
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
# t, R+ F3 l1 B& D8 Q  r1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" K( K# k) Z# {6 H
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ @1 d" d- p# j# M4 q6 y' o. E. F2 Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# _7 C! d2 ]8 ?0 h5 i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing$ J0 k) J; n5 l! C) b, w
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 T8 b/ B/ i! B* ~; p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
8 w; `$ n, s) x0 o; B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
7 p! [7 ^; ^) h8 i1 B* tbut that was before Italy.
! k2 X- k8 p5 P- A; H* _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ T$ @2 X- V) p: H0 }& O It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 S2 h' p* J: s' x
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 d. `: P( W6 R) ?8 a6 r  [
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Conclusion% s( `; ?& [4 O9 l  w3 j% k
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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