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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. Q6 i+ [# }8 e5 E- g: V, f

0 G, K/ J' V9 l3 oMarket Commentary
: ^( K. s: t1 y, Q$ l  `Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 Q8 Z- G: u% x! |. I  b
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' P; s2 Q5 v  pSignature Global Advisors
8 W7 O6 P" d2 r. X6 G+ B9 m  F; E3 W/ ]" Y% d9 Q* W

- |5 `9 k( `6 r( {Background remarks6 X! @7 b' R8 l6 ^
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 H1 T8 v* Z5 u' x; c. Q5 }8 h1 W
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 `. @* E; G& r4 ?1 B6 ~( f- r. ~+ \ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 M1 l- c0 ^4 G' q5 j' f6 ^% nadjustments.
) r4 \4 _5 F- m7 _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; r, W5 P: L3 w8 X! q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: o0 L& U, k3 g( m& m) S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 f' M: S; N- l% F; e1 f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 Z: @0 ]* r- s! e# e7 s0 @) _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* x' u9 m  p" F0 A
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 A; K' W+ L, q" x0 _
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" l2 y1 J( _; G6 h2 C7 g7 Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ H- l) l' B+ |; M3 p  x+ c Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ ?& W2 J! _9 Q7 M Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 G& N, n$ ?- X$ q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ i8 a9 U7 ?' k
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) |1 L8 M& X8 v1 I5 B! I( i6 q: B" J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ G8 N1 ~6 I) e# i" Q! qimpose liquidation values.& l& c' c9 z  i2 D1 g, T8 Y8 f
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 A( G( I/ t3 ^* t/ j& A8 S
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. c& E& t+ c7 F$ M% \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 {  U+ X" V4 L( escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
2 F. E/ l: E% D
, X& s  Q4 q4 J! I) ^A look at credit markets
  c% l" J9 x' O8 N0 W/ m' e! Q, _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 `$ l  o% q7 H+ o( gSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 O9 w! T( Z6 S5 O
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 O) M2 E. a8 D0 g9 N
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ w% h' o/ q& ^4 S: zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, B3 ~# g2 Q  x7 yaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, S+ ^% b% k" ~( ~
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" x% a4 }9 e0 m% }$ B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ Y% {6 h# b: c7 W$ T, c" Z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 w# r% m3 [2 e; @& \% i* @
finding financing.
, D& h- s  d2 V1 _: k) V Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 Z6 m) N: M9 |9 m6 kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ b/ B) f% g$ ?. ~2 F; I; h
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; m# q8 ?) u* M/ Q8 B( Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 r& a8 O; t0 T9 }: ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ o1 E5 j5 T3 j, h- i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." a! E2 J8 N5 W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- `  s# p: _: ~! `3 s! P$ _% ]
today.$ o0 m. {! W) W6 n4 F4 V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 S' E# i: V% O4 [2 V4 [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ P' K) F. u, r2 X4 I# M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, ~& N5 u3 X4 J4 n
the Greek default.2 K- E+ r) X: `- Q# k+ E
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 a. }8 ~) \; j) i: M* @1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default* ~1 q. M& Y  [" P( x  X4 `
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 ~1 g2 r2 Z# H4 q; g( Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals." v- O. o) S5 Z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" p$ S& z0 I, r/ @1 hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 |* g7 a& w. j; G0 L. P4 H( j4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
* K7 w) j. X0 z9 k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* K/ T. r1 U* g3 R0 c2 kbut that was before Italy.' T8 b% E3 {7 f3 L
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ z8 @/ E1 W6 k5 o5 A# P/ W
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 J. P0 Q. M* Q. RItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
" b( `! X4 p, W& ]+ ]
6 p" U5 b. j# ]! M8 W( EConclusion
/ x0 Y  @, c8 ?+ N3 W) S0 J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
大型搬家
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