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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
6 ?' \: ?" l8 n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ n2 t: m+ u( ~/ S; I8 G# I, Zas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. f) ^, i1 h/ H/ e9 E6 \
impose liquidation values./ r( z) _! |* e9 k6 F5 ~" H2 A+ u
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! p. f/ e1 i6 ]/ _* ^3 ]& o! G" o
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% m, f8 \6 K3 Y8 g% n* n The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# ~) k9 }1 O% e( J0 q; dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., d) M1 X% X8 d3 A- x9 i( j
/ Y* v' J8 K7 I, a n) w# LA look at credit markets
% N- H4 a& T* Z4 N8 `% V9 ~( a: ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 l; i8 G4 o- u }" h
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( j* R) w+ ]- O, B0 Z& [ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* P: u+ `/ k; b9 b0 K3 K9 sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 x N! c2 y5 I7 r1 l6 \0 u+ H7 u5 U
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 `9 g3 b0 M) }( h. P! a! _. }6 Qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ X* F# N. R# N% ^' \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# m& _& u# T; e5 Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 K* K9 G. x/ L
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, T; X3 p0 `" [
finding financing.
$ g) {7 ?$ Z5 _+ J2 }0 F/ x. ? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 Z' Q+ ^1 A" k# @9 e; ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 I/ Q: P4 R/ O) F Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. c1 d4 N4 E5 {0 m7 B" Qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ p$ i' P1 |6 p( x
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 e9 _9 {# l" m8 b6 ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, C7 \8 u) R5 }) A* C( o9 P. s! Q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 q7 l: ^ i& ?! A9 [$ E, Xtoday.% m3 Z' n( }6 j7 s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) I0 U6 R, u+ b; o( {emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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