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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 B& S+ m/ t) U

) l% {6 h: M# [' q$ u5 g) {Market Commentary
& F/ w' Y2 r# |" |* N% F' LEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 ~+ j4 w. j* }: p: F
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ ^! X/ r0 O* w6 y; h" ~/ A$ O5 |Signature Global Advisors( K' g* x- L4 x. O( r

' x: D2 z. p5 e) v
& Q: I! i2 r; k. }Background remarks7 G2 J) q0 J9 g. q# A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 R# p1 x% m0 e* D2 Y" e- s2 a- kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 y2 q: Q6 _5 C' a Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 Q2 g/ T: X- M4 x1 Wadjustments.
" c8 }/ J+ y! q: s  O2 G This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 l$ \7 `( [" X6 H. H2 u& Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  j$ t( N" W# K6 {0 {; G$ S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 D% u7 z0 ]" K1 ?
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ [! q: ~3 g% D5 I* h
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ ]6 ?  H# a: f+ Q$ {9 Tadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 @  }: m5 A% W3 j$ K' t
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ i# ^% T' l; I9 z) ?% L" l) a5 squantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 R" P' x( u+ u Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ l% W7 ]) |2 h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' s$ E* D8 v* [, `0 d  d4 @: Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 @# _9 n3 U% }
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  m' w+ a$ u% r6 r
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( z* K7 v& _' v
impose liquidation values.( R" a/ u* W) j9 _( l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 R4 y& D. o4 e( q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" T/ [) Y! w$ X The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& L! L8 U9 J+ v. s: `/ N' Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
& Q% O' }( j- V8 @( E5 ]  @6 v9 u1 d+ \1 _
A look at credit markets6 E' c7 t; a) Q4 I8 a* I' O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 V/ Y  u" r. H( dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ u' n; c5 i5 \# V
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% t  a* a7 b! ~2 R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% B0 m; ~& |. q: lbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) ^$ j7 o3 t6 Z& p1 d( a, Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, p# p6 _" P  W& h; S( W4 v8 d7 @
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( q5 |* Y8 T0 \! _* ?positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: k- `) g/ R  d+ c. Z9 C Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, f6 g5 |6 G2 \finding financing.6 F$ ~: s$ P/ j: K% T5 q! I
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. m* o4 b& T; N6 p" z& o) i
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 e9 W" |, N  s  |3 z0 ^; h. X
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" H5 g6 o; M- [) v+ \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ d5 X2 G: E. e- G# F: v& Z& s
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
' Z( }1 Q  I6 Z( E/ v' Obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 g, X* V' p1 j) [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 s" \( h0 t. f- P4 X( W, xtoday.
5 k( X: ?9 i7 g/ r8 [* l# j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 i6 j; E5 ~: l7 kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, |- R6 V7 P, G9 K. D Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% g" `: X7 ?4 `) \* J: N  }; athe Greek default.
. A( d2 b4 K% _0 e8 f$ Y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, X/ D9 N( }- e! T1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 I: f; p  ^0 S& m2 N% _% H
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# H" z# [0 w/ f; Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.7 k0 Y6 l: g0 _6 Y
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ q4 s7 d2 z$ hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" s6 J9 Y( q+ b4 r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 d* v4 P, o  p1 |9 u, d
/ L3 V2 d9 ~: \, t7 Q+ T7 K8 a2 {
Beyond Greece1 k5 u  x0 j5 Q; S7 ^5 n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  Y3 {: r4 P/ l% Z' [/ z
but that was before Italy.: Y5 w  T& @3 }8 t7 M
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 o  j/ e; S' i5 I4 R It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 T; x3 P; Z: ~& lItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 h' s' D* B8 S7 {, X1 s4 d# F% x& ~
5 X+ j8 Z& N  E/ d9 t
Conclusion
. a+ s3 _+ Z; L( @+ `: y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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