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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation1 p/ g5 D5 m3 g7 G! }3 m# i2 s
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. e6 N7 ]# g8 E, s: H5 E, `
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* Y. L- P! z/ {7 `1 I4 [impose liquidation values.
# L( Z5 J& ?& e5 @( U& r In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 I: K, U2 a; G! g: \$ z& m( RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 o7 F7 n' d B* i& M( o8 s
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 n5 v3 X5 m& ^4 m9 C( Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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- y5 c9 h2 x' N1 g' e' iA look at credit markets1 Q; d& z' x/ f6 r; o3 D& d2 a
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* \( H8 O0 V9 l" V
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., J' X F) B; |; v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, b; u$ V) M$ p- a. Q- O5 Hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. ^/ `& S7 d pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 |1 z4 y/ C- }access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" h4 b8 U+ x+ L9 A* ?0 m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 I0 H6 R$ @ s/ Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 p; c. A: @3 F: Y j; c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 j5 w {' s. L' C( O$ f
finding financing.
; B. B+ G/ S; |/ c. p Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 H1 o( B5 |3 [. |* t5 |were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, w: i# Y# E, o. [- ] Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% x& I: J+ A( F: ^4 `9 T
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: O- K7 `3 D* @going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: p7 p9 Q2 V8 w$ A
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 f8 C9 _6 X# \+ N3 b" b1 g$ d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& {& v) { z, y8 ~- o/ {
today.0 [- x2 Q* L; c ~8 w, o1 r/ s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 R& U. L1 t- C$ G/ h7 \# Cemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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