埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2377|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' y8 n# e% y* y2 L

. n4 i' S5 r6 H/ Q( WMarket Commentary
1 i% Z! L; e3 p% n* n7 j2 E& W3 fEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 z4 b" I2 Q* D7 }
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
* Z9 j) V: W1 E" M1 M4 YSignature Global Advisors, C) H: t8 ]9 T! C. M6 L  Z' H

' Y' d1 J" H- Z* ?9 a, H$ [- [' c: w) i, g) z
Background remarks. Q. i) d3 m7 O2 }/ B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
: W/ S7 w5 I5 g2 t5 X  c! v3 q3 qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.$ s% t# d2 ]2 J: _$ |
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 ?+ e# K0 U, S
adjustments.
  i0 {+ y  g7 b This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; S& B' X6 U) @1 j% nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.4 Z! U% x; C4 r1 r$ d
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 f) z7 b2 ]1 s" _+ W8 Qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ o% }+ e+ D  _; I5 d! S
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 P+ A0 V# }1 @adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  @) b+ p& F9 j( g
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 {( d; |3 K* W, A  r/ P# x
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 _! L9 S0 U& h* ` Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; H0 l$ a" B3 [* M' d- |5 A, j, X
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 I' Q) a* A3 W6 B1 Treduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ j6 g! z7 A- M2 W The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 D& X. [9 D6 z  H0 J+ b7 z8 j* r. |
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ J- G# y7 g2 `$ k+ `0 R
impose liquidation values.- C7 ?; h. p: u  i; ^  g
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) e% W! p! U8 g# H# V* \$ C0 }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( @& P- z; k4 W) j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ F. ^6 q1 t% q2 i1 R# L/ H  B
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( b1 d# w6 O' p

, r9 Q; u3 [9 e' h, N! cA look at credit markets) Q  C  ]$ {+ A2 ^) v) y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: K! t+ P* m+ w7 B3 F! s; `' S  DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: W, `4 b6 K  n1 G/ n5 ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& H  b5 L2 h8 Y; m# e+ r: d! ?) g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ g6 [) N. T6 Kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 U7 a1 U8 R: ]access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; |# Z; G6 U# v" h1 ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- {* @  x7 m6 Z7 i2 M3 m  hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ q, {1 L% N: y9 P7 p1 [: i Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" n0 a+ _  H* f9 W& \% N( tfinding financing.8 ]4 |# n6 L( f; Y. K
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 e8 `' ^+ t. Y4 b; }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* D, u5 r. _! t  G% i
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 y/ ?# g: i( q; Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; z( L6 T: e+ P, T, zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ ]# z0 f: p3 T( q8 X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! m; O  F5 x" B0 O- z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) h6 `$ M/ _. B2 }today.
/ C8 |, H, y# J0 g# a" W* ?% G1 b Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, j: ]9 _2 C- q5 Z
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda. f/ t" ?, n, k2 A
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 L0 d7 c9 |4 n0 c( Z9 {0 h2 lthe Greek default.
7 q8 n; _: m. }5 z$ I: Y5 _/ | As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; j5 ~# y, Z6 w3 S: z9 i$ \
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 W- p7 f/ y5 k6 I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 Q5 R3 K! U7 l" i5 E2 ]; bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.% F3 c% Z' V5 B3 o
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- D; I6 \! \) r% _9 H& |
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" K# i* T. g' c8 V1 V7 l4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
1 X8 s7 z9 e0 @- [9 X4 o- i; f& z/ e* @' C  @  Q6 w2 ~& |
Beyond Greece+ \8 ], e+ f$ P  K: {
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ A1 }0 b! |- O! X! B  Q
but that was before Italy.
0 d3 W$ v" d: ?6 O, Y. S( Y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- b8 k- q: {2 X0 w' L
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; h8 F5 x4 k4 E- L2 y: @( z
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 D0 @& E1 r5 H& F' B
2 @; d! L  `' x; W
Conclusion
1 e6 ~: d; O7 C- _! W; j& ~: B We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
理袁律师事务所
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-19 12:44 , Processed in 0.137771 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表