市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
  _( J$ U  M9 w% a4 k& z5 yEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 K& n& I3 P7 xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

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0 v- W$ K) W* z) F& C' GBackground remarks
' T: l2 s0 r  e6 U( |1 Z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: }/ O. q/ E1 m1 _adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ A( C9 H0 f; T! q; t/ E& B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( K. S, X/ u/ N# x( ^" `1 Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ w+ z4 H6 ]5 v7 R) S# w" q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
) H8 x& ?9 r0 Y1 y6 B; [reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ h1 S% w3 E7 V! U0 }% m0 Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, ^5 Y: i2 ]5 P6 w0 ]. I$ Bimpose liquidation values.
, Q3 a! Y5 p* g- A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 J6 }4 {+ Z- n# l1 A3 `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
, a9 x" h9 d# V5 L% N# f5 w Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 N, ]$ f2 y, U. S, a2 S- Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" G  n& x& p1 y+ `finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 `# ^* o: y# M1 P, o' e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. |+ j5 p+ e! A0 y# ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ h9 T  R0 B0 g3 }: Z/ H) [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
7 g8 }+ l% [) X: m2 @2 u9 K# N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) P. G4 g. L' A- _3 d1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: N; T- q8 \3 f& A2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  J6 _& Q0 t, _5 C, O% N2 Q( Kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ V5 x# X# i2 X# I! `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 w% N4 ~% m2 ?( u% n0 M; @" y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
5 L+ O- Q. t) X9 w  I9 M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 T; l% m$ l0 L( O0 uItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

; j# Y. i5 w. Z' M4 _Conclusion
; H4 v8 n5 l; f1 m  C" u: v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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