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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
& \% d2 W+ t5 f$ U3 L" v: c! b The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# N. H+ O+ x2 _0 T# Z) [0 O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' ` P) i( c8 [) S! x" Nimpose liquidation values.
b7 Q: _4 p" W/ S# {+ N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ \" I! j9 K3 `6 q" [* H$ c( }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., `1 K+ s1 ~+ C7 T
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' w4 d/ P6 @8 g' X+ P, @0 N" u! Pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" V0 n) A0 ~, m/ r# I0 D+ b% @A look at credit markets
* x" ?& \1 X& o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" J7 N S+ S1 ~. n3 y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) h' F0 G% |; K; R0 \5 [8 ~3 j
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# v, i- v. ]& D" F8 w- c3 L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 `. v7 T: y- p/ u1 w' R
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 O$ [* g5 q6 z y/ D3 M
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; W1 q0 M: f J9 [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 U. ?2 o* O" f6 S0 ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 J) h" v; J/ n( ? Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# i9 E; d3 X' `# R; K
finding financing.
( ^$ W! e+ S: w, R1 d9 O Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( r1 \# n& @$ T3 S- pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: z9 L! f3 q) P# Q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' U, \ F' K6 T1 @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# _4 r, S5 ~8 Y. U( U+ ]
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) N& `' G: q4 K: j0 E1 X' Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) Q$ p3 }" ^( C' Q9 K0 S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# E2 P* ^6 k5 n3 F# g$ q& f) |today.3 w& U: ~6 N u0 ?! a
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 w0 j& l1 U) p1 y) s
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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