 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation- M, ~5 R5 P) F9 p t- O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ S$ {2 V* h. a% v6 ~
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ \; p& }5 [9 ^4 k, B6 O
impose liquidation values.
7 o8 c0 I2 n; Z3 _ O In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 V0 ]# L. ?$ q; C& Z/ bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 h) a+ \; D& i7 Q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. R' C3 q3 m5 Q% t8 kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 f* d5 x( Q6 K3 V$ [# u9 `
* L2 x. T S8 A. U: M& ~$ U* W& S6 iA look at credit markets
/ H+ H6 O3 w9 ~+ w Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ \9 w3 Y T3 @0 j/ x& m9 m/ i5 g
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven. @1 e( I( i9 c; S2 c3 w' ], Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: m+ V. g* W! \3 xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, e% A" W6 m4 L7 y4 y% S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; k& J* r# \/ o. E6 ]
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 s+ Q& v6 U! |; `5 q/ a, f
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 U" U4 o# Z- R" A8 x |
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 I$ C- R2 h# f8 w7 M' x. l: | Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* }0 ?1 P" y1 q, _# g$ \2 O
finding financing.
9 {2 b8 ^: g0 N" F/ O c2 U& w Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: n. h: B* ?: u- u. w" S' H4 S# [were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 i5 T: B) V @* v7 P& d Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! {0 ?% ~7 a3 u, k* B
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 U1 ` }: C8 Y6 ~2 i" q6 Vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: S- a0 {! t. @- m- v1 I9 sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( h0 Z5 g% C+ S. q( g0 s9 K" M7 w
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ ?' D7 I8 C# O7 k- W
today.
+ B, q* O, e6 H1 K Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ n( Z+ M% l* ~
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|