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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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; G# V" I6 D; K* @7 A. i  o( _- D( sMarket Commentary# `& \+ ^* f/ k- y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer7 v" V/ E  Z- ^' W# O1 X9 i6 p' J; ^
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  S; ~2 C/ L; U" D8 f/ f/ K; r
Signature Global Advisors
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6 |; u* w+ Q+ X7 RBackground remarks' Q" h* q* S* l3 M! z+ Z- G! U
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% b2 _( R3 t5 ~8 v2 X9 P8 Q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ {  ~" G) V' z& I# R; @+ s6 n
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& c2 U8 K; z1 @; G5 @. Qadjustments., K2 h; {7 ^( F* @6 I7 k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# v% X1 \% g+ X+ dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 A* m/ p  w, Z) V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. A6 G; w, B0 F& ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 S7 ~& c1 z- S We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, h" W/ s( N6 u9 `2 Q$ h: d9 x$ t3 zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( N  }" a5 Q4 U7 R Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& i" @. |% l( D, p& ]quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# T; E; z4 C5 ]$ I. j7 O- H Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  g( W9 e6 ]2 P6 D! S% g' T
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' A' u0 e4 j% ^& e$ N; n; _reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 H- z( [" o+ @# C9 v The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 q4 g( T9 {+ D) mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 k/ L/ X0 G: U4 o$ M& @: w# pimpose liquidation values.0 {" G7 ~/ l: H
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* N# }1 z' c; {# K( GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% q& }" X/ [7 ]2 R$ H9 I# z* @! k$ f
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! w6 F2 H' y" x, @0 Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 [4 r; B8 `+ X

! e  N7 {3 H6 Q6 }A look at credit markets
* L' ~, H( l: t6 j& B2 z* A: U Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- y7 L3 v2 }) v# U- m$ ISeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& ]# }1 l$ @9 i7 f- G8 D High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. \2 e4 ?2 v# F. O1 `' l* l8 ?then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" f0 h# z) e& Y# N6 O' s
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% P  i5 A  {2 `7 i1 a; |! M% x, daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 {/ F6 u* m+ \1 J9 l
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% A  }) r: m0 Z9 S; a/ X9 g$ w& Tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- s2 y# e5 @2 Z. r: s2 p; P Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble) g2 @; Y$ p3 d, |9 H; `! q
finding financing.# Y3 P1 S1 a& e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ w" _: i( i; n0 v- X5 Zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& W8 o! }* Y9 T6 @# f9 w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 v1 }' A6 _6 G/ o! Lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' S- p8 `+ l$ |, Y6 {+ X. sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  \8 ~: q" m8 I" c
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- k  r/ ]8 u% E5 ?+ |) m( H
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 d0 f  n! `# T8 h6 D7 T3 Utoday.
6 h3 h5 T/ B& X) B9 W! U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 f" H5 o5 v' J: X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( S8 F' P- v8 F# B% o. \, E Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for( [6 _+ y$ O: @  n6 `! D
the Greek default.9 z( T1 y" O: ?0 a) Y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& q& X1 j# K8 j+ i' }' m1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 w' x% ]% P! N& W2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: {/ i0 \* r8 D( m; J2 ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 R8 ?) {5 `3 z6 H1 i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( \- y$ H& I# [9 U
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ v+ l3 E0 O7 i4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% B# h: [& r$ U" [- N3 P# v

. s$ F3 W8 \7 g) n  L) ^# T$ h3 BBeyond Greece' k5 C- @# p' q' ^/ U
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. c2 i9 C& o0 H- R* u1 r
but that was before Italy.0 d  ]. E( q* o8 S+ }
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
& z9 P: s4 O$ B It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! I. i) D9 I( Y* e4 |Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 ~7 n6 @2 z/ l# W3 z

, z5 ?6 e2 e8 l! J) dConclusion
, X0 I5 @) d/ H. M We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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