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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation' Z P3 ~/ P8 |- `/ V
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* x3 D) h! ~$ S
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 h* N/ c, P" |8 N9 [, q2 G. oimpose liquidation values.
' u* y: K4 ?9 ? z+ Y4 ? In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- |, ?1 d8 y Q5 Y. @1 A
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& B: H# Q) U" y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: |# b! j" ]2 |: }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets& U5 D3 w3 N# b. j
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( t, E7 ~" @6 I- X5 w) K1 fSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- f! a4 r/ \/ }+ w, T$ [; P; L High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( T; p# Y! k3 D0 x& S- w
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 D# S! } H& M( T2 A% D1 P3 D
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 D4 @& @. g. c
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ T; {5 l6 c: R/ R5 C$ YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' v: C0 Z6 M2 s7 [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ S2 x7 K T t; F9 w @0 M% u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" b" c( k/ {' sfinding financing.$ j, b4 T4 a1 O" `2 J4 a5 l
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* s# l* w1 x( t& ?were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
c2 {& n0 m% G: { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 u: x, T" {3 p0 }$ L
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- ^* x2 v- ~ \( d) a2 y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; S T- ~/ l. u/ d' l1 i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., g4 ^( E7 x5 z. v, T# r3 Q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 r" W W0 d- X; g. u; Y9 ltoday.! v/ [% ^. o) N% E9 p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& x! Z8 K5 Y8 _8 m% u& D
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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