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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
& l1 Z/ G- B, V, Q. o, `: `Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 i5 p" s* g3 e; Q% D5 OJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ s# m5 C% \6 W5 I3 RSignature Global Advisors$ w! W! S) l. J
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Background remarks
7 W# }, @; C+ Y) n7 L4 @9 l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 U1 E8 Z8 _/ S0 M: u4 x
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 Y7 o9 C3 F* x4 U% M3 R
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- G4 a1 c: W4 ~& Tadjustments.
. d! T3 Y9 E6 O  C. ]6 W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social4 R' e1 {0 i9 E  m
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; [3 h8 |) e4 X# i
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 c) f! y, H5 u( r2 b: D8 R
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- U; n1 r) r; p# ~: z* f4 i We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these1 U1 _( \! W! C( N  D! |4 q$ D1 x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 X7 c0 H" l7 R$ h& ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; g5 n8 f% [2 h! R8 ]: Mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& A. I. d! }' a5 o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- Q2 B0 p9 f6 f6 P) q' w/ c
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( b$ B9 g/ i; d0 K  zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& ~% u5 a: p% P& H  U0 O( e3 O% m
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: f4 [4 U7 u$ g2 o( J, \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& w  |* ~' K  B. X5 k. n5 B" t6 ^5 Q
impose liquidation values.
2 y/ R8 \# e( Z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  {. ^9 t8 s: J6 M9 C) BAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 d0 e" Y2 I' ~  E; [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; |# G* {1 a/ @$ sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
& h4 W6 @1 y( C5 V; e Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ }" `- H0 Q" u1 U, |  K% I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; m- J% C5 i0 |7 }& Y& b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. w5 d" A( B% |- P0 }
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 X" s. ~) K# O- B' j; ?- C. X" [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  u2 Y( Q% g+ I- ]access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 B3 k3 j0 s0 s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& y; |) m3 L1 I3 U9 b! I9 rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 F* N1 Z* r% v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! g$ ]( v" Z$ H# ifinding financing.
/ u& J: r7 m: h+ O$ K6 O# g( z; O Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ F! k/ E# s" g* S4 G3 d5 [+ [were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# O6 o- j8 b5 _# S5 D6 q- p: K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: ^6 b0 G# [$ l3 F: e4 c
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ m0 A& J2 W" g) a2 @0 L+ `- f
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( D& [1 I. |" y: I8 D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ g( \2 `6 M. D1 Z; O0 b European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ `. r+ s: d; g! C
today.4 [2 h! i& o8 p' c& S: F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; H2 ~4 }9 j. V; \6 {! D9 I. ?) [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 e3 j( j  m* L4 v Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
& f, b- m2 _# ^2 N. k; p, k4 o* ~6 Nthe Greek default.
/ W# H! d- _4 }, y9 D! x% d As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. Y5 U$ ]1 n) ^6 P& ^2 j. V+ Z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 ^/ j# a7 M- V. F7 \; g# l  T
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% m7 B: r4 Z% R: Q( H
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.: X4 `9 M2 M3 L; d9 L
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing$ y& e: Z5 g3 B( n3 U5 L% e
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 K- o  g) h" m' b  f) C$ K4 N+ ?
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
$ s# Z% E/ |) D6 I. S, T The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ m" i6 A' j) j) N2 s; h
but that was before Italy.
! U6 Q- r7 N: _. q! f It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* u$ |, j) {- j2 @1 o6 _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# w3 T1 J  _0 e, D' y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
0 A7 u% t5 n) j! [) c We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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