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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 g. _! O8 x2 Y! d5 v% f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 G; M9 Q8 x7 w; Z: l; }4 [' [1 ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 E0 w+ M" M% S8 L( u L+ qimpose liquidation values.# s0 r# ]5 Q6 |/ w9 ]5 t7 S
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. V- }4 L$ J% Q$ u/ \/ @
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* u9 Z# R" M5 x/ V6 |8 w
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ l5 [2 f" O' h! L! f3 ^scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" N5 m+ U' A6 C/ Z* BA look at credit markets2 b: s5 v ^& P
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in t: v5 N1 \ c$ w, y/ L
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 h3 f5 [) r4 ^. j6 d- K { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. L. l. [2 c5 m" Q4 l; Y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# ?! L3 [' P! O+ Y( w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: L: d4 J2 n H! gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 A- N1 X3 Z" [& x. k- _/ h
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 F' ]* y; f! _+ ?' j* Z1 [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ F9 Y3 h2 l, {% ~5 H: S
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 ?! t. L; C+ B! L& ~& U0 tfinding financing.
( u* @ \7 v* M" F& y1 | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 u- F# H- T3 g% |9 Bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: q. N4 D+ u0 Y9 W/ j5 @
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 {; g- Q# {8 e# m9 T- b R
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 p8 w2 j4 U) Y( c
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: ~: I4 ]( H2 y5 }bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 x" b) u5 M- K5 n9 r- e# Z4 q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 @8 J, Z, r g
today.; U" F4 W) \. w, ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 Y8 `' {; X- J: c- h" R
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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