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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary5 q$ \$ {3 K1 I  r) L, g$ T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ L; i* q7 _$ J8 t, W2 T) R
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 O5 U' Q" U+ W0 E7 }3 W  s- h
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks8 J7 S  v5 S1 P" h" H7 i6 @
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ c6 s9 r: }3 m7 @: A, a, S# Kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 _6 F% f  p0 d$ K8 s Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 v& y( ~2 N. g1 i8 a0 B& ~
adjustments.
, E- W! k5 `- [: Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) Q4 d+ Y$ ^! ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 B$ }  ^: I) }+ ]4 E- U Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' x) H, \' k2 W7 }+ h, y- ^+ o8 I
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
0 I- f4 V+ H9 F2 y. \ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these0 q! s, ]' a6 v2 q+ t: w2 B, z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  g' ~) K: K. N0 c/ ]
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) C- q* n& j, D
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 I/ w! f; h5 `- u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 _1 L6 @7 _0 v6 L. p8 M Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 ^3 G/ w% q/ [3 {( S3 Breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 U! \: n' O3 i/ H' N( p5 d# M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- i: M$ v% j( pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& c9 h5 d& q: |( Fimpose liquidation values.4 _6 s# `7 K: `& |8 S4 w
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& C! C  G8 n- l) XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* f. d: G/ x% R/ D. K' P5 [2 ` The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) l# }3 f4 c  e/ g+ S; \: tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* c" `4 m4 H% U1 ~  I% l

( q1 O5 `+ V8 Z! DA look at credit markets
7 u! ^% i* T& c- n/ }+ H, ^3 S  K+ J Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 w4 T$ m1 e5 O; c& y7 R$ C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& M) k6 `( G6 _# x1 O0 _
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# I' s+ A% ~6 {2 o! I0 H, U6 a3 p% b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 n# ^  t- Y, l( Q1 l  E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ a9 b, ^' \1 o( l* j
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  ]& T/ V4 }" z3 n* E8 Y* ^$ @
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ [; V; Y6 x! T; F
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( G* e! H6 H- Y! c' i
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& Z  [  ^7 ~6 w; B) I# K
finding financing.* L1 q. H! b' e4 z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 T" r; Q" L1 ~2 N$ O* k: s# T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: U) y% _# k3 D8 G1 x: c# E4 o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 n0 d0 S+ X) o- r4 g6 S& E0 tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 c* v( j0 v8 dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' u6 Z7 B, m, x( C5 H* t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. ?7 p  j  m8 M+ P/ _6 }( s0 i
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) R: \5 }" r+ z  r/ G5 x5 m5 {8 htoday.9 @9 f$ K/ I! \
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 d: Q( Y" ^, y; B/ M
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: a# V, w4 w3 }/ P- Q: ]9 N) L
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. ^* y+ B1 @$ q. D
the Greek default.$ U$ `  W9 Q9 y4 g* ]
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 N* h0 Q2 W  }
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: \* K$ H: n+ e- V2 G+ m  J
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 x) W+ m+ S5 s0 x& C6 E' b
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.  ^7 a+ V8 n3 [  X2 J: H
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( ?4 s! z' ]  B5 Rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, j. R' p/ r& C2 ]4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( S, L/ U3 d9 B4 @% ~# Q
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Beyond Greece
1 P0 I  Q$ ]" S% \ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 V+ {% w# L+ e5 |$ m9 z
but that was before Italy.
6 B" R( M/ ?& k/ h( \' Q! ^ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 W: F& x" D! g9 R! S  e It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 t2 |! f2 t  m9 \% ^( ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
5 z  ~$ W6 \+ u7 q: J7 D' M6 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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