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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
# _: x, h4 l8 p" g4 R
2 H: B' H% K3 YMarket Commentary
8 l8 L7 f; k* `9 {. R$ ]. UEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 S$ q9 A0 U& iJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" U3 _1 D) Z# A; p
Signature Global Advisors7 w, ]3 |$ S3 M/ g
/ j. v2 x" M$ {" C* u& I4 q
0 B1 T5 c1 U% }0 ^! F2 {% ]
Background remarks
, s1 B7 I) t6 p Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% Q& }6 J/ E/ D
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 q! o7 S: V6 T8 s Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( \5 s* v3 ?% z& w" U
adjustments.9 h# b% x. n8 E- a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 k9 C0 d9 p' U+ ~* e3 w& k
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- q% i( h! t& c& T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& b$ c" w% t# |" m+ Q; E
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% ]% X9 W1 H$ g We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' f* G9 g! X0 }/ [2 X4 s! H1 Dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ K' o: X0 c. k  l Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 F+ ~$ v3 d: k) J% v1 n3 v4 S) T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 C/ A0 l6 Q! Q$ q0 k Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) D1 V' C# N* \ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' }2 |' L  Y* n# Z6 f& f
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 S) d1 i% i1 {  c- E' H The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 X3 n. p: h* F4 \/ y. o
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 \/ m( `6 T$ X4 J4 }: N
impose liquidation values.
' c0 [0 Q! ^1 h% t. V3 \ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' E- k* ]( o: _  bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ [) M; F# {. ^' z( Z$ v4 B The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. x( _, Q, G" lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 L9 G7 T: W5 l- J
; |: Y4 t3 L# n
A look at credit markets
  e/ L4 n4 Q$ H7 G! |) ~9 g5 Q" f Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# W! b! I8 G: x6 E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& T, M3 Z/ h$ c9 k, P High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ X6 A8 L& V' u% e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! f4 M4 X- `& j& U) Ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  c) ^! k4 T( d1 j9 J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 \6 \) [3 m* `' s5 q# j9 QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 A" G2 _0 O4 ?5 p" c/ g4 Z& O- Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 Y) H$ E, G4 C. q# n4 U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ b1 e2 D+ ^6 M8 C' W' ifinding financing.) S6 v3 z. W4 U% u1 s& l
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they" F: p, S5 A0 p; Y) M  @( h% `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 n4 @* |* a/ m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 @% D% b$ O8 W
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ p! P) D+ {2 ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 R' A2 Q6 I! {0 g: R* @( lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 s# Y* q) e+ w
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' i9 A- [6 {. ~* ]+ S+ r/ ttoday.
0 p- m$ C% _4 `# C: M Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: X- E- t+ q/ e- U- r/ X- d
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 _8 p! o, I9 j' q1 |
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- a6 I( P( @& H7 \
the Greek default.9 h$ S2 _% W# \  H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( s1 I2 Q1 d" w% m, g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: p& G" X  C# E$ S+ `3 f: d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 x' P2 o" L- U; T  [! _# ~
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.- V" v1 E  {2 O& Y% @3 K" X
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 t3 `$ i$ u8 F8 k) H: L) q/ [
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' H, w' E/ |# l. r. n4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& ]/ d* u" h( r8 E& j

/ d. K, w" W, [$ w& z. IBeyond Greece
) S8 D4 y% H* Q) i) u The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& L3 j. l0 i; O" k
but that was before Italy.
" t1 z8 y# J8 Z* g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! Z! _; }  z" G, W It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 A  V( Z5 ]- y  G) d0 TItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
4 ^5 H9 R! n" V! X/ q/ \3 o
( h$ U% S, q' l# O1 u& ~Conclusion
6 P& B  U' {1 S! _- k# \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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