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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# r7 U6 G' q! V. b1 h) ]

) Y9 l3 Z6 t" U8 x* l8 S5 LMarket Commentary% z5 k" s+ [$ H5 S4 ?: V( a4 K4 \
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 q% n( a, b; O# Z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( ?+ C1 y& x. n- ?# g1 f
Signature Global Advisors8 S5 z7 |" o, `+ g: o, y3 L6 ^

/ Y7 r& k: Y, X* C
1 [6 m: O# j: x9 _Background remarks
7 E! Q7 E6 z6 d+ q5 I$ d: X- u Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are" b5 j! c* v, N% k3 ?- H3 G! ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 |5 ?$ Y2 O+ v# l# b: B
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 y, A3 ~$ k9 G& V9 C/ A
adjustments.
1 }2 ~9 o! B, L. J2 t This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
- y* U, n0 k7 h& b. ]! B" u7 osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# v% y, B. ^& @( L, z8 g: h/ A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are/ q3 j" a; ]( O) U
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% M4 F( I9 L; |9 Q8 g5 p We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 J3 u8 |* f+ H- L: D% c* _( R! r
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% @( M, t/ K# Y4 s1 y/ d7 L! `* e; {; N; z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 U  \; q9 S  A4 K  q5 vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* _9 c# C# B* c4 C- _ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  S0 M/ L# W' _0 `: U0 s
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# b, E* U" @3 j: p. w: W& yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  f9 {, C. x; b! Y  u! u) y2 ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" {5 k" b+ _0 d9 L$ l! ]4 Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# Z! B0 x2 ^6 _6 J! {; rimpose liquidation values.
, Z! D8 Q; u8 o% k( v/ S, u In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 i9 U' B# q4 J/ H5 L
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! I( x( W3 |' L2 K6 T
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 o( w, C4 o9 c* l! |3 r; l. h: m8 W
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 Y/ f9 H7 @1 B$ j% s

* O# y9 E" A2 O1 BA look at credit markets5 ^/ s/ C/ i7 R5 _2 I# q) N5 a8 ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) B- s3 Y+ b' u/ _/ CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- G- c0 Y) d5 I. x% R% t2 i. a% H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& P! v; K8 |+ n7 _$ E2 n
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ k9 I0 F" @) C6 f0 r2 V' L( cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' S4 E1 f, _. R: Y# @* z' Vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 F7 e1 ]. r5 w# pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( U* D; i/ d6 [, r* h- Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 f3 B0 O9 [" v4 E- R' Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  `; K: s' @5 ^2 N  B) k2 nfinding financing.
5 x2 }) h0 e! S1 L% | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ ~/ k2 O# D6 d2 P
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! J0 K! u, f" Q2 d) o6 {: v/ Q$ v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 z5 d2 k. L) f' J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ n6 i7 k! p2 O' igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- ?4 _* _+ ~' i2 Ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# C% S7 ^1 S( H2 o European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 z; Q, D( @# N' h; p' _  htoday.
! L9 t- a8 S- y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) i& P, g& p( {- L, o. M7 V
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( R" O9 W( _% p1 U9 k
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, |; H8 N# t& c! Q5 Z' F# Ithe Greek default.9 \# M1 r+ Q! J, i! e$ K; K3 [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' j1 z& s) _" |0 X: }6 m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 k0 ^, |% Q$ H5 I+ q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 A; M1 T% q3 T6 i: A: H/ }
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 A, W" y) x8 y8 p
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing* l7 R3 ?8 z' O$ O, g1 i
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. z4 T1 E9 x% b% ^9 d4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
6 M: s- M  g1 n7 Y2 ?- o# N
8 y! `/ D( P' K# R. e7 RBeyond Greece
8 o+ h. i4 H2 u0 h9 M. e The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ q* S# a+ v" f% m3 abut that was before Italy.8 S; _! o" ]) m0 Q# z- o+ L7 ]
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. a2 R7 k9 Z/ r8 u) Q: K- ^5 F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ B/ W" N1 J6 R) q  u2 E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
9 C4 q1 b$ T" I+ S
# o2 |6 j0 W' d- B3 U+ R) ZConclusion7 e" V3 w* C+ Q) t( J  k: O! V
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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