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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& y3 ]7 T7 \$ y* o7 I3 O1 a

7 _  E$ A8 N" ?% x7 H7 mMarket Commentary
+ u5 R/ V6 N. h. I+ K2 \& [2 M2 ]Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 [3 M  _( C" E% u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- [' D/ O: I6 {. N
Signature Global Advisors7 K5 t& i$ ]  R; z2 N
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( F5 y3 V; O1 Q
Background remarks0 F0 o; k4 r' ]
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 r2 @% {+ _/ e/ _8 a/ yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) j# X4 J) }6 D
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& O/ W' v* M% R( ^9 kadjustments.
1 q+ }: d; O" d' F6 `1 h  ]. X This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' i! ~# u( y$ a, g4 O2 v
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  E7 L- u2 W& Y3 l* U( j
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 Y7 A) W, @% ]) H! @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& s# k+ P% T8 n8 f1 c( M( K6 J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. }+ Q: Q" }2 i. O  U' `7 |2 J& [
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ r) g" ]4 E; I) ~
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 J3 T+ S0 ]- i
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& U# E! @7 s3 q0 ?* \8 j/ b0 Q+ o
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., V# N* w: V  B: r; a! w2 w# a$ o
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( f- D  {) u5 T) }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" D# V7 q7 v; F% F
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# {, W$ G1 j! J( r9 V6 \
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) H( X2 N) w( E, O- |& ~+ `
impose liquidation values.
4 D$ ^8 e( s7 P5 u: j In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% d" T8 f- i. W' }! N* g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 b$ k: C! s* F! I( |4 s8 m+ W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 l+ ^( y* M* Y) W6 \4 R; t+ Escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
+ @) Q$ ?1 }3 H, \7 L7 | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& A" p- t3 o& p2 h( \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. }+ y; u( P5 k# k" x+ u1 j) B4 p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; p, t8 I% W! J# W# v3 h, F3 j. Athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ w+ H$ Z6 |! T$ Z3 |( D1 ~6 y7 y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" |+ g# B2 N9 q0 \. M$ x. i7 m6 V
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- i% U  s' f- u2 e; p0 u$ E& j7 ^. _
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 a2 Q, ?" H' t4 D
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* v. w0 Y" |7 e7 e% k- v. D Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& K5 h8 [( p5 S6 ?) V9 _0 A* n4 h* Efinding financing.
& c! @3 i, Z3 F" T6 s; ^ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 L; P  m5 h- G4 ?+ twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 R$ K% U0 \7 H( e+ P6 w8 m5 y/ K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 J2 X4 b) M" b: A8 N/ L  Lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 s2 @* }8 o% f, F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; \( o% B- J* h# U9 D$ G2 S6 t- L
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ D+ t6 e, Z: v" Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% X% F' I$ ?3 q! Q' z8 t# Xtoday.
& _. c' {" T9 z4 S6 m+ y- W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- W7 y) k; q* ^2 @: i! _2 W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ E' ~, l6 B' W) V% C3 ^4 C Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 b, t$ V/ |4 L5 N4 X* c
the Greek default.
0 o; \! O$ ?) ?, R) v- A7 h& f As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) j, `* U. z* X% X$ [6 K
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) _% t6 ]- I5 w! `5 U4 f& ^
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  {! j% `, R6 ?4 U5 z+ g
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, }! N' P9 @+ |3 f9 Z) h3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
1 I' d  [4 i. |4 u7 ^4 a# Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  c& q) Y" H* k, c4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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) B9 s! R' G) z# h! k' Q$ fBeyond Greece: C2 Z- N! H7 o: J# T4 y5 G" _
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 C  g3 E  p9 C7 ~/ t  B. z: K
but that was before Italy.
% z2 ^& S0 y  h$ B2 ^* q; M/ t& X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( d7 W7 S8 f5 `$ g# f' m0 l
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the" W; W. ^/ @; h4 ?1 o3 C1 g
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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$ p4 h. F: {- |7 h7 bConclusion
: J  w9 |1 j/ _+ M! A5 k& ?& S' d We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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