埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3727|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ U% A, k% C/ d! X; c. a

8 k- M: w' @6 b2 p: r5 }, X- U5 O0 `Market Commentary
+ O% j" Q  ]1 B' W1 I2 iEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, @7 O( z  X, k: ^' iJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 i* j  i2 e: U+ }8 C. ], `, B$ SSignature Global Advisors. U- d' F0 F# \2 S

# r9 g( F7 a" j: v, U% S2 ]! Q
' @. p, L/ N; V  O8 h1 b3 s7 LBackground remarks
# B9 _0 R' E8 F8 [6 ?. W% S, q8 P; m Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* C5 @% r3 t) ^4 |as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  S' b2 W, C# e, ]- a9 B9 m2 H% e1 u5 ~ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( S0 U+ t+ Y" Yadjustments.
# y2 `/ E" u; K* Z3 y7 }9 i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% F0 t4 R1 H" p! t: N0 h8 u
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 _6 V) S: n, l% i( M( f Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: n9 h9 h* ~5 U$ [7 t
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 y" L# B6 o( {4 ]' R  V6 _8 n
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 {6 Q; H! ?5 _9 a6 g' Oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" }7 N# j$ m6 w Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- n: c- ^/ D; n5 |quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" ~9 H7 V+ f7 Y, l) l, d# B! E Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: L3 U  R  F/ z$ h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
  F- c$ P- M0 e! M: m& Hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* f9 j/ S1 L0 {/ t; N% ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& ~% C2 n( |1 n  |% n5 \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ v, q6 \2 L! H# i/ ^: rimpose liquidation values.
7 h0 Q$ \& a! z: k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' R& X$ Z$ n+ x& Q- q: `8 R( a7 p; XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 y% P: ?# k2 q: v9 F- `' Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& o* {& [$ _! {4 Z% X
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' o& x: J1 d5 o: r! q* ]2 n% b6 G+ n! O
A look at credit markets7 U; D! o( i8 f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  X4 O* ~. {& L6 m1 i, j# v
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 o# `9 _/ I/ j5 k2 X9 ^
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) l& q. C! z, L; w' y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  E2 z4 T- h9 ^6 ^& K  Ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  l  F4 `& b- ^9 Z, Q0 o1 vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) h/ e% f9 ~7 s. t3 X" D* c# ?" d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; b* t) A6 O5 d$ a7 W7 Q/ ]% E
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 \* a1 v5 Y0 {: ^) h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, O/ y3 }9 R# V# b6 H6 sfinding financing.
% I4 j0 s+ f4 y3 G Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ A: t6 l* d: Q3 R$ l
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! g& Y% Z, J% u9 P# Y) i+ F- P
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  k) D5 b1 ^; O5 W- w
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" P# r8 p8 a4 p9 c3 y! M3 |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  ?, N- Q8 ]" z1 A% J& Ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  l( `2 R) U9 W. Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% i3 a" F8 X/ _. `' Z) r) [( v
today.: ~* G5 k( ~5 n3 t- O
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* ~3 c: U1 i. cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 r2 r% \! o1 k Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 [- p* L8 b7 {% r9 Z. t( d. Othe Greek default.
2 T4 o1 o8 O6 \$ ?3 h+ p: N As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. m! ?! u5 g" ~
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 t$ ]) N5 V& y" b- [/ M, Q6 G2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 J; x1 K, i7 a1 S/ `+ |6 g
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& {% c$ w5 n2 t3 p9 ?6 ~: g3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 X4 K+ M' X; I9 s6 c5 p& y/ }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" n# Z) ~% `' P; \  ?$ i. B, s5 M% z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
2 }# ]2 W# o5 H- G  Q9 k+ N# Y2 y* g- a% {8 Z
Beyond Greece. R+ ^% a, L. {! m8 i1 v4 r" E
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# N# ?$ b$ M/ r9 ^$ h' \but that was before Italy.( K$ t! ]: H) M. A/ b& c$ i5 f) q+ [2 z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 A' `2 }- Y1 n1 n( o& N9 j% L
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 T/ m# U/ o1 x& k- S, H/ [/ Y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
9 i6 }3 F- j$ M3 }# R
" y  G& t0 n  [* C, yConclusion
" ~$ X' @+ h8 R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-23 23:28 , Processed in 0.089004 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表