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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation8 [4 h; s7 i3 R4 y+ |$ H7 n) T5 ^$ c9 H
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: K1 R. I( h6 I* Z# uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 ]; f8 [8 n3 b) vimpose liquidation values. p3 Q' _" P% \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 ?3 _7 `+ o9 l3 S/ Y- k0 ?& YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ s2 H4 z3 B/ L$ ^) U
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! Z( I% V: S0 C9 K! ?1 P6 t. `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 Z! V/ W" v+ R5 X" h
( C% I+ x9 e; z& e5 OA look at credit markets; v9 P- a1 |) F# V2 K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) T$ F: [% u) K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 A& f* M* x0 [+ X7 N* b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 r7 h0 d2 \0 `2 f; X: a' b$ b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 i/ B9 g# f. ?billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& e% r9 X6 i" ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. N& \' W# W& S* a! DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
+ }5 `* N6 P6 m6 qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* C* h% C g- s; |( c" A; S( B Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& O! H# s4 _4 ~. f3 J+ `
finding financing.' v v! b& ^/ X9 r1 r& T b
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 x6 K4 j. u X( [; Y/ A
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; F, u; n8 e `" A" l9 m Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 q- W. A+ R- v/ ]: F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ Q) p& d- Z1 n, r0 c
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 F3 z3 U: j4 }9 k- v2 d1 D, H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ V& }0 x& M: A, X1 j
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: r4 ]- x/ @/ {6 m, u
today.4 G# ]- S& [9 H" @
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, |' c) L' p+ n* C1 R7 Q
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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