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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. z  P2 K$ c$ d' B
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Market Commentary- _; H/ z( @8 |& i6 g; j! Q5 O
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& d5 C' M; H  Y, Z# ]. v+ V( V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 w: Y/ _: U- T2 X5 {Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
) r- L5 p" X' f$ b7 M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are* n5 i0 c8 m  m* s6 Q- k5 `4 ~6 K
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 f( ]4 U9 ?* H+ h* ] Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* H! M  j0 p& T8 T) n  ladjustments./ _4 m5 q( v1 |. Y! Z: o, w
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ X' m' z/ n5 H* z4 L* W
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 Z3 k0 O$ q3 |3 U
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: N" q4 u9 B( I1 V6 N
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( s8 m% J$ G5 r: c+ @0 _ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 r) ~* H5 D+ _- kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# B& Z8 F+ h( r  w, a
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# d9 w; @% X5 |) s$ p' a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 W6 {$ L4 r$ ~, n
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 M; D! P) l8 M* U* v Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have% y, ^  n% B9 k7 k$ L+ g8 ]' `
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' F- K' q! Y; U0 p8 b  S$ @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 Y( p1 R0 P7 `; e9 W$ g& mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& m7 @  `* z' r: a
impose liquidation values.5 v$ i* B# ~& N' i8 S
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 h5 d2 B8 o" ]9 {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, X7 C! f: C! R& A The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* H/ N0 [/ G+ F4 w+ k( ?6 Hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( B* l- L2 D- [. F9 ~
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A look at credit markets
) ^. _$ P) Y# V! V. _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 {2 s6 _5 G% F* u, pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) O* @  B/ o3 K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 l1 G4 e9 ^* i' b2 ^7 P5 v+ Q0 W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% P# C+ d+ v! m3 [" Q6 k: A' C$ cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 ]# J+ }1 A& a/ W2 m+ ?6 D& s. ]. q5 ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& ]7 N% y; B: Q% I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( ]) Q7 o$ Z+ d
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.; @( B' @( t8 j; F9 T! ^) ]! Y: @
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- Z: {7 {$ z/ e7 lfinding financing./ p% X1 [: h8 ?; {' h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* c* S& u6 U9 l
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, U9 d9 U; W: v% \0 t9 ~( d Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) {- t/ O: C' _  ^; J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( ~) z; [/ Y+ r2 X) Z, _going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& D# H1 b$ C$ P+ s" c7 c, X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- k1 H9 `) s7 i: I! A0 W) D+ ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, r5 I& `! K( k0 C# }today.
  F9 E1 i$ t8 g! e) z1 [7 x& b+ J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 |, d% C  \* ?& K6 O7 z$ Zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  _- a) ~7 }* \
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; ^/ }) X& J( L6 P- O4 n# {
the Greek default.. s4 _& }' A6 G9 m
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& H% Q' c1 Y' H, U& i1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% c( r$ t$ h/ K, C% E, l
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 q( z& V: P: ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals.. H  Z0 o% d" `4 W7 X
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. E. z8 R: ^) A( X
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: D& C% n0 c) ?1 ?
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ z4 Y5 E! s  [7 T' S7 @) e
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Beyond Greece9 |4 q% m" z% I3 Q" Z+ p3 r9 [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# M8 W/ t/ X+ u/ ~but that was before Italy.
" h) O6 o  L, V* `5 w% N) g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& _$ p! d" z& u( z0 ]5 Q2 k$ ]. G1 F
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; V) {8 M* p$ s9 d& N
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  X  ^8 T$ S( U. u9 {& V' O

/ i9 ?3 P% K7 V5 M+ P* `Conclusion
: D& F# s) S( \3 _# g We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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