 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation8 b7 V ?, ?* j( u4 i @0 d
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
Q: O& P$ [( J+ ]5 S; e# F( `; Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 b4 _( q& W# d3 F: W9 u2 {, n
impose liquidation values.1 ]) \& a5 K: j
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' S f7 n% J' DAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., O2 e s2 s/ N) T6 h, w
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% U5 ~; p% \/ w. x' Y) \
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 A+ p! Y1 N$ ^4 w0 H9 \0 m/ q+ y" y* s# x2 M9 m" f
A look at credit markets
# `2 z. r4 Q2 o: x! w! z/ l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 |) ?) ]2 e8 \4 {5 [+ iSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." Y# z6 J8 [9 Z; { B B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7% Z. P8 O$ a6 ]7 Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
2 G: q7 T; P; V* Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ m+ e, K) }: w$ M9 {
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 a2 T# q. K' w4 y; V( P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
+ B! w$ z ^! z, Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 \, A& B% k5 E. l( d G2 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. X; ^! h ^# z; |& `
finding financing.# u" B0 Q, m- Y1 A: D! v" O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 R) N/ D1 C P) R( Q: G' |
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 K1 e+ c6 V, z8 {! }( z9 D8 l- Z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( c1 n1 j0 x% W. K! uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; p; ?& U) n/ wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for: d& R+ u: E+ ]' w! u
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 i6 K, |0 f% g) T. |
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: U5 R& \5 F" Q% J$ @2 q# htoday." n% L( v5 E! U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- e9 \8 N6 q/ {% nemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|