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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( P$ P$ V9 l- T' X
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Market Commentary* N( D. [: E9 k. y8 @8 g6 V
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, c2 G4 O6 o  @6 F% G
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 q  [( v! n0 U& g" r
Signature Global Advisors
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: x$ v7 R& f) }$ k
Background remarks6 f5 D; l3 x5 g
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 L" m+ |  R" @5 M$ m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# j8 w: A; Y+ u1 M. ^0 q2 f$ M
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) X5 ]9 _: H* }! q9 U# V% |/ Z
adjustments.4 t5 |4 q7 m* h$ J
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ N% k/ r; Z+ ]0 G4 ^  y/ R( L/ Msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.5 O; V# Z$ B) T4 J9 A$ O6 D' ]
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 T! o: ^* n) \, n& rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' T. |  j! ^& Q) i4 n  I  @
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ c, S# `2 Q# Nadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
2 C1 ?4 C( H1 a, U) A, J Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 T" \3 {1 f- B2 ]+ L5 nquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- u9 `* w( _/ K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* e! \7 _$ A1 ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 g, o3 H/ l( c, c9 b' R( ^7 K+ X  [reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; A% V% T, @; {+ Y. d  Q& }- h+ ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. ~: ?1 z3 w4 D& b7 _* p, has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 _" ]' V! o+ }4 t3 s
impose liquidation values.6 R9 [" ?0 d, B* p0 o& x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 u, q' J. ?8 @* N' A5 A7 T
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
4 l1 W$ m4 W% ]' I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 y. U: |" z" \2 q5 k
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." Y* O/ H; q: ^4 y3 S

" y  O1 s3 U* L8 Q- ?A look at credit markets
. g& S% Y+ O# g* X. @. @/ w# c( N/ j) A Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) z- ~5 ?! N" ]1 z- g& NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; j5 A3 x5 R# B9 Z7 k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
  Y4 Z: f- ^, r2 ~3 {then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* ~% e+ O: F. E* j+ `$ Kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( n5 o/ w8 B( ]
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ v3 s& {6 F7 B  a" J4 o9 \9 h. R+ a
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! d; t. f8 X0 j% bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ E% F4 L; E0 }) P+ S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ Q0 j: C* z& k& G
finding financing.2 ~8 x: x8 @+ Y/ E- Q/ v" k" s
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 A1 c! g$ I4 u0 I
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- x$ g% f, W: l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- }: h+ l& D% q0 h, l4 Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ K) n+ D; I" x  O( n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& T4 W- e. Z6 \% e  obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( p6 V+ C( i  a- M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ V; Y* L- ]& L9 Q" N; ]$ k
today.  b, w1 S, n9 I
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% v  N5 t9 S- C) r
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# U( Q- R- v5 \) z* k; m$ b" @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for" p2 J3 w( z) a7 a! Y
the Greek default.2 w7 Z4 D1 P; u, w$ u3 w5 a+ K
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* _, c1 k/ L7 X5 Y; j* r8 ^1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( T8 _+ ~- \4 X4 r$ _& ?2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- Z8 w! H, c& J: e3 A: ^# u
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.* |8 v9 D) g# h- I; M$ r- |+ Q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. e8 b$ s3 G* Y6 sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 {8 Q4 q; t, j* \4 D
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 U0 t0 E4 ]: |. U- F; V5 v. e/ F0 a# N

: A+ a$ u. l+ c9 C, M+ @Beyond Greece
" y( W7 N$ U# g" l. t; y( d" I; Y$ z3 f The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- ?/ K1 Z- T2 _* V2 Ubut that was before Italy.7 b/ C( Q* m6 Z5 t
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ u; B; C( K: |% W1 m$ h' Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ w  \8 @1 H* J1 `; i
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* `- a. J; q, L3 \2 P2 R; E

3 y) ~' a6 M0 Z  J6 T1 z. b( iConclusion' ]! d# d8 p% T5 n3 v
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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