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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 _" K  Q1 L/ y% q7 U; Q3 G3 H& K# Y

9 W! n0 ?' V7 |4 w, S% D. }" BMarket Commentary1 \) y: C# q+ }" l% N+ @+ I
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 n, l9 o; E7 B5 o1 c! x
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager+ I; j9 y4 g: Z5 C
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
6 \8 N; [7 g9 Q9 k: S. t7 G Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 z$ p. ~# C7 Oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 L* j6 f3 H. q, X! n0 Q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ g; ]# ~- `; o- }$ g( \# Cadjustments.7 Z7 v5 d0 W4 d" {. W+ ]
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" {. p" e/ @( Hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 O( I* o! ?4 m# l& a- U/ `9 d* Q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 A5 ~( L: O1 U+ u5 P) O) }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 T. H0 \) C  T2 X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 g* Q4 o! b3 Q  N
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.( c( C' Q, |3 q  u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 e; b+ z  F( z  v% H3 O3 i( Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ h6 w7 X- B( N0 N. f7 L7 A
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., w* ~( N' F# e9 D% c% C0 ]
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 B/ v/ ]% X& z  [- E
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 J) N9 R  o: y/ I4 x4 u: w/ ]
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 ]' y5 E9 I& w  W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 J7 H% a5 R2 z2 G5 Mimpose liquidation values.2 Y9 H7 L0 y3 [4 o% c
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" [+ t; r1 |9 C3 ]. u: D/ V4 v2 C/ ~
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 V: l- D8 p8 l" b The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; z: Y3 \! i  z+ N0 u$ i; sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets$ }3 {2 |% o8 ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& O% `( |! n2 S$ n# o
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) b' u. ^( K* H' F( X$ s High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" m; ^2 M8 Y2 {; i% S
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. I$ P& s1 Y) m. h: fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; }: n3 S3 Z+ V7 o% m& Gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 x% }4 P8 w9 [. x  ~# y5 F1 q: _1 j; K4 PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# j  V) z1 K8 i; d) k3 H0 ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 ]2 T% q2 a  ~) D/ p3 j( F/ n0 | Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 h: Q; _% ], d. A5 U3 E+ k. Cfinding financing., _  W" `$ J, }' z( ^$ _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 B6 o) I( @" W& y7 a7 k* b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 h' ]) P/ k/ U. W, x* I
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ a. _! T. J* T$ `' y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  F* S# Z3 C6 G. z" E) v
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ _# }8 g4 F7 y8 H% ]( f5 l
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 ^' {# y- ~3 _. Z& D3 Z# U European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 ]' B! d, T! h6 i: M; qtoday.8 o. P  P" s9 `
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ I6 T- a" r* ?) S
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
! B) s1 i, R8 g5 h: k. x- ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  Z) t& |! w& Z! z% U: E0 Q9 tthe Greek default.% Q7 u1 r, O" D! t9 `. l
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 V1 ?( |0 X- S/ q/ A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 B: ^! q& K2 ]/ y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  g2 A9 t5 A1 C$ a4 j& z( n
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 H6 ]& c+ t( U; w3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing& y1 T6 a! c# r: |$ {! p& G0 v
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 b( a4 D! L$ `
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) k# I' d9 n1 [0 I% j# b

8 C# l- H  h7 _6 \& W' `- J" A0 dBeyond Greece
% D/ {2 I% O) X/ |5 G- p; [0 B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 a8 @7 c. Z7 P' r8 R/ g5 w( p
but that was before Italy.
/ b9 Z1 M$ e7 ^ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 c5 F& f% ?# T; M It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 x9 F3 r; M2 J4 C% KItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 H2 k9 q* S. d& i# j

1 z5 @2 v! _3 f* x4 I7 Y% X) PConclusion
, g3 ~5 ?0 U1 k  O# M+ O We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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