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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& e* w' b/ W0 r. J3 A+ ~7 v; V6 U% q
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Market Commentary
5 |6 N% ?5 j# g& b& IEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 x7 F, ^/ ^" ~6 h8 s& S
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 g. c" G+ q/ g1 E# z# |Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks( C4 U3 `# v7 r* E# y8 y/ B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are5 X5 F. d! D0 R7 K% A
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' R& K  m( V3 M' S Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 Y# y5 z1 j( y) J. O
adjustments.
- F" o8 v$ r/ v This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! I8 C! O. ^& w0 A& v: {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 L3 I3 W" B/ }5 E; V/ S$ j Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 _! E# F0 n2 k2 D; Glessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) h* V$ U8 I) ~- ~9 t. h9 } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 F4 k1 [6 ]/ k+ F: l0 k, C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ \9 w! i& j9 {( Q0 U* i
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s- {4 z# K( w9 s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., ~" r  V* N, \; L+ i2 R
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; E% a  Z) b$ P. C: U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- m" R" l3 `" |* J8 A& A8 i5 r
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 G! s, c, W7 r" e
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ d' N5 _5 g/ s: N, M# }. f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 p: u2 o, }) Z0 J$ s$ {
impose liquidation values.% d. o" F$ ?( c7 q3 X- o- g) `
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  }1 Y/ |8 y9 n! |6 `# PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 D4 f" `* |, } The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& ?- Y& u. x4 ~5 X$ O
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; o: d) A1 R$ ]: C- @A look at credit markets' E6 J) R' T8 Z+ z" `
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; q3 E6 g2 P$ {6 P. q5 iSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ r4 E2 S& g' Y( F1 D5 r
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" s/ n& ?" Q3 d, I* \
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: ]) a+ C- L# F. W( {  r; W4 {billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 B2 H5 e7 e9 [' [
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ X! @: s0 |1 A& V$ a; s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 [! S$ c' Y0 K& k
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ T$ ]/ G1 b, ]" _2 v0 C9 w7 G
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- _7 c! W4 G2 u% Z
finding financing.
7 ^* V- v3 t6 @$ k' I Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ \" F9 d( _$ w! B! b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! E' _5 q' z; S: N9 ]' z. n/ ? Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ t: s3 B/ \; h, d  l/ i1 Bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' D' Q. ?% A2 Q- h* P7 i# N% z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 j( y+ q8 z. p) n% I" L
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 N" z6 g. M- o1 y% ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ o0 F: @# Y- [- F/ i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* o( j& G; n4 g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, G' ^% J2 a2 v, B6 A# P' q* Bthe Greek default.
6 c& ^+ M: k- t/ a4 S& } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 I- C" W# A7 `! r  B6 J5 C+ K) O
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 r, ]. E/ P3 [/ r; v7 G- R) X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ ]1 X0 l5 k3 z  i" H; N/ Odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.* s) C# i$ L7 J8 a# F9 Y: U* X. Y6 Q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ @' y3 }& n$ x9 E5 K
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% c. s9 w/ z2 d, d2 B0 \4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.3 T7 [  c5 ]  l, G" x9 S/ `. V: X' Y
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Beyond Greece
9 v$ g5 w. r* |! m: C The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  m( b2 p9 _' a- {but that was before Italy.( s. t" q9 D& _2 f  N
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* y$ w) N6 O  V( N8 @" U+ O  f
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 G4 y) x9 O& ]0 q1 r3 n, f) ]6 J3 sItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 w1 c& o2 k" q4 z
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Conclusion  i* h+ [) _. ]% q& G4 f
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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