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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 F% D6 j, F1 \2 |' V, {
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Market Commentary
% j8 }4 @/ {% p) v( h! C: REric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& I3 S. f0 b% M/ J9 A& {4 CJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 ]( i6 Z3 l3 f) c9 T/ e; b
Signature Global Advisors
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! W4 W$ M1 _) r! o: O7 i( C' ZBackground remarks
! `, r( @8 |, C6 I4 m2 p Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ M" M# k0 R) G" d4 @as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' r3 K3 I$ V* l/ o. |8 ^/ p- b Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 ~" ]7 g0 x; t- l
adjustments.2 M: [% i2 j; K; T/ B
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. w% a1 F4 V8 J5 Nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, e6 L! j8 P: Y Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 v6 \: k7 g6 @% rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( i( `+ v$ v' W( L0 w We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 f) B3 D4 y  \
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ g% w2 o% h' o" E( W! c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% P, O" V" M, B2 N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) v& K* R& }7 U) j! \. t5 B' k  n
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" c( n' \$ V! j0 i  |7 d; k- s Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 M6 d. N* Z% d( Q2 m4 Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; ^+ \- C* ^  \$ d. x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: d3 X" m& ], K  c* B5 I. S6 F# V* ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 P; _5 q7 D  vimpose liquidation values.
8 q# p7 g/ \, m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. j( e2 O0 h; r! a8 D( J9 }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 c6 m: f" ~0 y, D+ i The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. _# I7 Z0 q5 q% T6 }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
! \6 p9 |% ^4 C. B6 E6 h Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  L7 c! K: C; ?/ L3 L- v7 BSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 S4 r8 c: T, q" O
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ w! e! ~2 c8 ?# F, @' j. s% _9 C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* d0 p, G, X1 P' _9 P6 b
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ E0 Z( ^. k) c
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' N' r8 D& j" M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ H; v( |1 h/ H- Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 q2 e# q* K9 F9 P4 g, m) f Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* `  m: Y1 G( q8 P! V5 D
finding financing.0 [) ~- T2 b  Y! L# I% E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; }' z) O/ i" y5 B
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* X* a. Z2 @" M$ ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* z1 U* h+ {) B5 V( his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* R# l% v' s" e# P" ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 B7 U2 e' ~( V8 d2 `
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( t; {! `/ X  n; v- _2 [9 _2 Q" S European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 V7 P: w: j  X) f
today.; `9 [& H' Y! i
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! j0 i! f1 Q9 M) f; F* U, |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# ~+ s  T4 j' A$ o Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 k/ `) X: O4 \  w3 }
the Greek default.
$ Y0 x6 `( \, J As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: Y  R$ p1 u) a5 N  G- T1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 ]+ b8 v7 h. i2 m& V
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! t& R9 W0 ~3 V- Edebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' U4 N9 C/ m+ |$ r0 J$ k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: [/ U! |* b" W- {banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* {+ ^4 j+ l  e0 p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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# Q6 G, B6 v  i3 DBeyond Greece$ o2 ~% q) ?% x- q; H1 L, w
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. H; E' B, H) c. s! A( z
but that was before Italy.
# v- L0 F. n& d5 t2 b2 e: ^ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% e; }7 P3 O4 T# Y$ a( f
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; U+ |) q6 _& Y  }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion( w% D  L" i! I4 t; |2 @
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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