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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary& g: Y% P# `+ b) t4 L" G
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, t0 q. X9 x+ dJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) I0 Y6 F2 b6 n/ K0 |0 [6 A) o
Signature Global Advisors
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3 K; F+ g* q6 mBackground remarks. t4 _5 L: h- z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 v: b6 u1 w8 X; ]' nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.1 r+ J5 }, q, D( W& b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" l3 }! O0 u( p6 ?5 z5 xadjustments.8 _6 u$ g2 Y$ u! a! S
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 X* J& @, j2 i5 _3 v0 ?safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 T/ {# m3 N! U4 O& ~  k4 l Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' P5 o' y% m; E9 Y  ?  R9 Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
7 l8 j- S0 \3 D We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( ]7 E; Y" Z% s- u) ?+ Xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 N6 u7 y( A: Z' {# f" i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s  S" e1 n& |: t5 R- [
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 e: S! |$ G+ K9 V) ~ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) G- l* P% Q6 y6 a Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) I8 [" l/ ]# N2 O. X% r+ ], v
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" i* ?5 s9 W0 h7 f5 m The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% T0 g* t* \: A
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. s: d/ r, k: R2 H* n/ Limpose liquidation values.
  m* f3 f; r9 U4 U: ?+ A, x In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! @0 C: @, ~& s% x, U  L9 AAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ ?( W6 j% `: M, {* ~' | The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( `. T, ?' _: [9 f& Ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
+ H( D; W; g; ]3 b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 S4 @: w+ h$ H* L! \$ A$ b8 {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. ]0 l1 ]/ `* l( m- ~; \8 w* } High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 t  J5 ]! a7 F1 {5 d6 r  L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ m1 ~* ~, }8 w0 p: u  L( q% {
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 x0 t& z' M% Z- ]: Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! k0 G' U! B9 G5 Q/ V0 P! W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 X  B6 \, ~1 W- M7 N" a) P& i
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 H9 M) c9 N9 ]/ a5 h* z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- P, `: z1 }! }# }4 C2 o( Ffinding financing.! B) P$ J, t- j8 X
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% |' X( F0 a" q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 r3 i! s& G8 j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- ~9 [, v$ W* `5 o8 [) E
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: ^4 Y7 u: r4 k- n& W8 e; Ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ ^. W6 L0 F! e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' I7 O8 [. u+ K5 E
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( l  t# j7 {3 ^/ u( L+ k3 p% @today.0 x  m8 k, H- `4 K/ C1 F% y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 N- f3 @$ s2 S* i; P! ^emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 u$ f% L' r# M8 H- l0 e, y5 M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 f* E* Q! v; c# G# r
the Greek default.
. V. @4 [6 o& t! ~# H4 b! h As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% q' G! M  K! ]' p5 d( S7 m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' `5 [- I+ J9 ^9 S2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% q2 i. H. U9 A; A: f! R& ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 d0 X% X4 V2 g3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
1 R/ I) _9 t, f7 M- U/ Nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ o' d) l0 B5 I$ D) K* x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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4 m' u. B' ]- X( UBeyond Greece
( Z2 k$ O; S6 D" m6 z- b The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 c3 x( }! I3 B% |/ r! w
but that was before Italy.
2 |$ x, ^' g( P( X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 [6 v6 K1 a# `+ \8 K It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 G' d, h/ s& s$ \
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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5 p; E" J% d- M6 G& z3 [Conclusion
3 ~6 r/ ^9 A5 K6 ]" { We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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