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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
- Y/ v1 s: O- M4 Y$ I/ _# \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, v7 L' e( k+ E, m8 l+ KJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 Y# e* v# W! W" O: h! B% }Signature Global Advisors8 e. ~6 E- S# N' v# c

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& `3 c6 Y  s7 b( z* ?, `1 N% JBackground remarks
$ n9 A7 T6 {. v# H" F8 Q( f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
* N5 j! U1 \* K9 _% H; E# Aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 |" W6 K  \" T8 O9 J$ t
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. H; o) e2 C. j! y5 Aadjustments.1 I, P2 Y* H3 |
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 |2 p- A. p( N7 n2 m' `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 s* K0 A( B% m Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: u% K8 u6 Z* Ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- e' P* b2 t2 B( D' E We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ A6 ~' o, {) @1 Z* R0 r( L
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ P8 T' B6 N' H, b1 ?* x& g  K' X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% ^4 K8 m( e" x/ ~
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; F1 v+ q3 \/ s2 I* @/ a
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; N$ Z8 S0 l) q2 c8 w% j. l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- \" B$ S2 ^" ]6 D6 L9 z7 n2 n/ M& qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 Z3 V; p& [- d( N- {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; P5 {) @' |1 I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) T* j0 L4 [/ `2 Oimpose liquidation values.0 u2 ~7 P3 @8 I) ?
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ q& {+ }; |/ ?- lAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 s0 a; `0 S5 k2 G7 @* X$ y3 Z$ P The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ p3 [+ B. z, U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 n9 f6 I, W6 Z' ~A look at credit markets
' l" f* b2 A% O# }4 V5 ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 w5 w* ~: s9 W4 D; x1 F9 ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  k) s& B6 b- G; |4 v7 F: u; R* A8 D) q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. C- V1 T$ @2 f( {2 K& ]- Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 [( T# @( u/ _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' u2 b6 ~. C3 M0 o- Maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) b: x  Z5 Y: r$ l+ pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, n1 |3 L! ]# p. f4 y1 v1 C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 s! q0 n1 W/ \# t$ x
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 s! \5 ?8 s& P- K8 C
finding financing.
: v3 z! ~' g( R8 c Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 K& |3 Z; E7 W' s" Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# p9 \, ?* a3 Y" M7 C
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 l. Z, }# \7 V& ]1 J0 kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& |9 p- X! M: J/ mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ F6 {6 ]$ q% c1 R6 Z  ~bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 h/ H4 m; S( L- M# u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) F# V) K% H+ U1 c) N& c
today.
1 }8 i' U( `9 F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* X1 @% V3 A" Z4 g8 E# I; ^% ?
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) M% x/ c$ A* S8 i( x
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for3 L0 C; x. I# \
the Greek default.
( k8 W) B7 B) w As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
+ Y' x* @+ {: B+ ?5 o" f1 y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 W  u: }3 A, u( N2 H8 w8 G  L
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ }4 C* Y; a. H  Y  t2 g/ L3 O6 P. m" R7 O& Adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.. _' q  O: ?, T, n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. S& V! o( s6 e, p! O/ e8 A  I9 g' F  f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ v! u8 w! }7 G" E" S4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 n* }# q* o. G: L
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Beyond Greece
" ^) x! u2 ]  t3 G The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ V; p/ b  k7 _. w2 Ubut that was before Italy.
& k3 m6 T8 |' ]( `+ g% Y; } It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! _' s4 f. P* J It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 D# K3 G1 d8 M7 }7 \Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion! m5 V6 G8 J( z+ y
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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