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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
; v7 [+ r$ Y1 j4 a! F- Q; ~$ H; [
! e2 @% b6 y  y- z! FMarket Commentary
0 E5 ~$ j. r/ h3 KEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: Y% t; j& F" w
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 ]5 {+ D" F0 {9 `. Q+ J1 m2 KSignature Global Advisors3 X0 b1 P4 Y3 I& {8 |4 D) Y
# [  H: W' P. J0 V& j  ~" v; M

. [) U3 J$ f( g) V, XBackground remarks
, A7 k, k3 H) n  D$ Y9 x  q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- H$ c. t! H. [7 t
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.$ z( ?) }, x4 |) e. J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. v/ l( \2 D/ C0 K6 _' S: Xadjustments.
3 k& \- P0 w7 ^5 d1 m' [9 @, \  { This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 S5 ?8 B& _2 N  x' `- @safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& s" O5 Y  J" X5 [ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 y" S# v( R# {, b8 E. N& nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ Z7 u1 `2 N& v# ^* n8 U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 f7 |1 r) N8 @8 G. S5 V: Cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ p) Y( K$ E# P, P
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 v* s6 [! s5 ^quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 x( C. ]. `. {9 F0 w9 C Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% |' s. J9 j* K% [# Y# n  S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 ]4 R8 ^/ T& B) I
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 |0 r% I( H, u# e$ k4 u
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 J8 y+ _- U' O* z) ~; E8 Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, y  n+ T5 Y+ n9 Q
impose liquidation values.% l- F8 u7 H8 T. O' ^+ J% F2 Q! L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 K% v0 s5 N9 F& M
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- U( d0 r6 X7 v The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& X' ?) F9 w6 X: \9 L; _8 v4 |scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# P8 e$ L& m& Q
( T2 M& X9 D9 D. V7 T
A look at credit markets
" o0 B% ~0 |- b6 s+ R* I Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# W3 O! P, @; ]' s3 M+ B4 _
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 Z7 P8 [" F3 M" N0 n' h- { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( @$ ^$ s7 i* xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 X, H/ @5 g/ F$ [- ]8 Q" F$ s" lbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 r6 T3 J& L, J3 jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% L; G5 e9 a3 C  ?) \1 }$ m1 \  hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 g7 Y! N4 T6 A/ m0 V7 Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 V, @/ r9 F9 o( k9 F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ v" L% P- h2 U+ g0 X' M3 Qfinding financing.6 [: X' c# H" R* }( d# |
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
- I7 o1 ]0 q9 N2 Nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! w" x# Y* }0 g# H% k' j% |5 Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 x! e8 N& U4 R, H& I
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; P% Y9 l; x0 O0 ?' V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% R6 {- g( K- d9 w  Q  f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) |% `$ Q3 z5 `$ _3 \
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 o7 k5 e# t3 w8 Atoday.
, V/ x7 A8 P* B% J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ Z$ w) _3 U- w  Z* z' P8 jemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& H# C; ?% v2 J7 T! |  U Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. |6 g9 Z8 d5 ~- u$ _4 Q
the Greek default.
  ~4 L4 H$ V" K, a; @7 s As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& x$ M6 _3 b* ^/ U7 R( M  u1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 Q: W# D5 t* G/ `4 {& Q( v$ g9 X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 x* {; a, i* }' ^/ J$ r! Z$ h8 B+ Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.. |9 {- |- Y; U
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing; b6 }) k3 ^& S& r  ]! n# P3 H
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 G% t+ J' p5 N4 R2 p: h0 |  a
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' k- K7 G! q- n( E

- W6 o% k% {- u1 q$ GBeyond Greece
" U, P% W6 ~$ X& T The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 G0 O6 Q$ X* n  h; Vbut that was before Italy.! E& e! b8 a! h, h" o/ S4 l8 [
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 O& H' M  c4 y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' ?" u( N# }; f" ^Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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- B% F* o# g% D9 VConclusion
% }8 R9 D- b; C- @* P- n5 v4 e We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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