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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 L' E9 u+ s5 y' U! A
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" _: ~* y6 a2 f+ D6 R
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 Y" b0 u) O/ `% {& cimpose liquidation values.. b2 A2 X4 f) x% n! m) {* Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' ^; C; W: f, ~; Q$ ~
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; K3 ~ a$ q- P( [; i, S- p The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* ~( o% k8 m4 z q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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! v' P+ u& X5 X7 rA look at credit markets% x/ @$ y2 Q, g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* K l9 @0 a$ _6 \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 I3 [6 _# e! o2 o2 N: ?. j9 _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( a; m2 `! b, C3 ]9 v9 n
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- G$ ^1 T2 f: y- F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: \# [1 i4 }/ w' E% E- S4 i
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade* e/ {- k# X% T6 C) D
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ N& y( [, L6 g6 n4 ~" {, Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ D& Y. d! o2 U' t0 q4 y: |
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ c5 L9 u E) R Rfinding financing.4 r, T, O" S5 w8 P: P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 i: ~" O8 N( S+ Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! P; M/ k) `. ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( m) f9 L: a; ]4 k5 [ O# u# his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were m/ c* r+ s$ X# C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; L3 f' m1 d, ~3 U2 H9 v' w
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., V: ]4 |5 |% d
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
K2 f* X/ A9 E7 ]% |. w htoday.
0 \$ o. I) G$ Z; m8 J5 C Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( N# l* M/ Q9 V
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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