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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。: b7 y+ n7 Z/ |  A

( d* Z8 R& R( W( DMarket Commentary
$ D$ V2 s8 {( H4 p% P' R: WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! M" n, r: W. ]% BJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# J: ~: j; V2 g
Signature Global Advisors& d7 O1 q+ q* s5 @6 j9 H4 H3 ^  A
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( K$ p5 _* g) `7 d
Background remarks6 V# y% W6 T+ a( s$ V  x9 D# g
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' E# k6 t# V* Y9 y  @' z/ _0 S9 Has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 [) b  H% }6 [0 h/ N
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 a* R8 @3 O" z( ?2 Radjustments.8 b; ^$ o4 {6 S2 C2 z( C
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! w1 X% V# I) K3 p7 @$ [: Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% L* ?, X# v! K) b5 d Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' `9 a5 F/ w$ o- _: elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ g4 m! ~$ L) T  O( y0 ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* }/ W9 j4 i# r) k& yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% j6 M- a- A' B8 @0 k* ]# v Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& Y/ k9 g& J$ N& L7 W$ Vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
8 e9 j+ @! N  O! s% D Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" @$ C1 ^& o, ^6 G8 m! T/ ?- k: |& x Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; Q: d& c: t: ~; e  f
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 X8 i2 G  w* [5 @  o. R5 \. k) K
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 q# X* L+ v) @# q  Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ g0 L4 ~# E. x3 e' Q' m7 Zimpose liquidation values.- V, J2 w6 M6 S" J+ j7 \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& {4 V2 a5 ]8 Z! {" z1 R) GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ `9 j7 V. z" H4 L3 t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% F1 y+ I8 l7 Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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! u* Z7 E0 N/ I1 N6 [4 OA look at credit markets. Y) @6 u( k$ Q9 h- Q: h* T' p
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ \1 P1 A0 a; }! u# J
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 y' l9 z& T* T! m" {7 [+ v! t
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 q; m% G) G7 [3 D
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
" B  t- n3 u) I2 j' U6 P  ~billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; A# g" s7 X9 a- K1 |) f  l& k: r9 b9 Iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 m! i6 g  e6 o" e* q4 J1 ^+ z' R, E
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 n# K4 d5 ~- Q: J6 H8 v0 W$ Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& W; d8 T4 v, ^7 M; T8 X( Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ h  J, u! O; c) l$ G
finding financing.' `3 |; a4 w! f. H1 x5 s  B9 ]
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! F0 N3 x5 p) X4 a: V& o. Nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- i3 g5 `2 M7 e  b# w Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. |2 j. I: ~! c+ c5 his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& m3 F8 X. K8 w6 O6 tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  Z* F6 N& u6 ^/ L7 N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 U4 {" L' D1 ^/ t$ f9 D' \
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 H+ G7 i  A/ Itoday.! W: |. b0 g# C, p! K. W3 b1 I; \9 h- A
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% S7 g' E( @1 H3 @emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ ~) L9 E  p: S' {
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
& H' X+ N; M, P. bthe Greek default.
* O1 P# o) j# d, G8 C As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& K) F( C$ L! V3 {
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. S% {& ^3 p9 Y! z' x- }; l0 Z2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 L* t6 T3 t" `5 t- g' d3 h) ?debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: H5 q3 o* b5 y& D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
6 q% h% D  i( S( D7 h( H% zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# l: z  a( _4 r* u) G4 F( n5 L* t4 C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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& g2 u, O  }/ }5 H1 O4 @4 j3 `+ ^Beyond Greece
. N! i: y+ l% B$ A0 u The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* x" z+ W- A0 u3 I0 N% N
but that was before Italy.
; X/ q: f( A$ \1 }/ w3 _( ^: ^ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 [- a) p5 r0 }, Y' \1 d It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
( l- n  k/ f% z+ T9 s( m% SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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2 _, Z; z$ \# C4 s" ^2 F" R/ lConclusion
- Y7 R& m1 U. g+ C% { We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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