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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation$ T5 a4 g% [" k1 Y& N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 M3 D" U2 |7 |, G- e l8 ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- Z' ^2 H# y, O" c Dimpose liquidation values.
+ k a" N3 E) ]6 h# Y d) ~ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 N2 `* g9 d0 }9 L6 W% B/ E
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' l |0 @* m( J- A( D6 X' \5 {
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% ~2 V& n$ ~* t0 i/ Lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets* f3 R1 l; [! v3 d6 t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 V; ^$ B4 u. @+ \! c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 ?8 U* ]0 a3 _7 Z: u2 _
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ `. Q8 }, i+ \/ S5 A$ b9 q3 ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& z8 o. U5 s! b/ V8 B/ R% ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- y/ c5 K" E+ A& H
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& J) s6 x( X8 Q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 b% q. |$ r/ W, R% e- @- M/ J
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 g% {4 K2 v5 h6 ^0 R+ f8 V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 I, M! e& r, p( J) \finding financing.
- u0 E" Q2 A9 z% c- B Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 a; U u# y7 W/ F$ I+ z! o
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals. ^* }$ D7 K, ]5 i
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* [4 I5 ?6 q( a2 X3 Z: [5 _
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% g1 D- m+ T+ ` G$ Q8 l: Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ r0 k/ L3 Z6 z* {, r
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 d) d' J% e* N. r4 a2 [1 G7 p
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 G4 t5 [% v) M0 M# H7 ^% k5 D
today.- R9 U& `' o( X k, G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& Q( W) u" A7 M" ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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