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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 n3 G! }1 }, _- w& z8 _3 ~" R! |5 M

3 i& Z5 w' @# w7 k4 L, {, j. CMarket Commentary
6 l( V8 R" l2 k  ?/ j: z9 q1 ?6 |Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 w" s' Y" E" @3 tJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 G& b  _; N- f5 ^( _
Signature Global Advisors6 G. ?. v5 {& t9 e0 c4 b. p

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Background remarks
8 M/ S( G) v( B7 B/ z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ E/ v$ k8 o' `" Zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." i+ R. _* ?! C6 T4 J) S$ L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ b: C3 t, A* ^- u* Z% ~$ P, Yadjustments.
4 F' k0 {( o4 h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ g% L! E! ]5 C( Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 O9 G  @% T2 V5 Q! F# ]' O8 e5 B$ c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( Z  y; Q! i7 |4 v# Glessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; g9 t1 j# j3 Y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) R9 l  b9 d  y( R$ S7 M; }! t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  }; M# I1 m/ y# I; W
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 g- u9 R* |5 A3 f* m
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 f0 Y$ @& _' a! g, J Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 h3 [9 s0 B7 F' e
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: z3 g4 W1 l% U# g4 }. P
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, c. N5 N( ^8 L  W: Q5 j
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! `+ f( Z( [0 has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ \- m6 x, C- _impose liquidation values.2 q" ~3 b& x" a2 b# P8 s
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 ^- o" n7 B: N; b  U) t, UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. H& Z' z8 B( N# _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! o* w0 {! d+ U' b# ]4 d6 k5 H1 a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets1 o0 w; c+ ]+ ~) l8 }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; z$ \0 i5 m- f8 J1 |: \
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 O9 Z9 f7 w5 ]" a+ x5 w High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ Y8 d6 y% v0 O& Athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 e0 K$ d) Z. C+ O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) q" R) H. I3 m0 Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( X6 Q9 B! N4 B% X: J/ FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 n2 y. O1 j$ Y8 N* U$ [0 Upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 w8 A5 P# T+ }' C& A, S7 ?  b- V Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* o  e+ g! W' i: t5 Y
finding financing.. K9 `, t/ Z! S5 w+ q5 C( E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' X, Z! Z$ W; `7 G  {3 P9 M& kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 r0 R1 _4 b$ r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# \" q& y* d" \- b" R# z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# B8 F8 e+ b1 q( sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% v" F  h9 w8 A* Q) B' Q* @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) o8 i( B$ S! y, @. R$ K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 E. P% j5 b* T6 ?/ `3 u. G! utoday.  Y6 W) Z3 q: y0 K% D
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% V( l' O* E3 H3 I2 w6 Kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 ~9 g. p8 O5 j- k8 C- Y& |8 K: k/ ~
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 G5 Z7 x* H9 S
the Greek default.
/ y; u" }8 Z# h, ~* ^ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 Y' k- K' w( E
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 _% ^/ @4 {* M: {' ^( l1 H
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! R- n  t5 q3 k4 d3 N7 t6 g& |debt stabilization, needs government approvals.. a# H8 P3 S) |& t+ r& K
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 m' _; y+ y4 A) c  X
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! \' q2 H8 W- ]; Y
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.4 b) d: i, q  C" x- h- p

+ C7 L7 p' P5 g; f) OBeyond Greece
0 _2 }$ q* t) t% i9 X The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& `+ g" o; w" Wbut that was before Italy.
) W0 B/ i* [! E, N% _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& `6 Z7 K. Q) l" w- p
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& g0 r9 B& X1 ~+ g  X7 x5 P, u
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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" a$ X/ H2 b8 e7 S' u; Q$ wConclusion
) {. d4 @0 a! t% b4 H1 P We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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