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市场评论

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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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( @" \$ D( H) m' O  C& {Market Commentary
1 i2 f4 |/ h  `+ M* MEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 k! R/ f1 n; Z5 v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! R' W$ C" s9 Y) o0 mSignature Global Advisors" s0 w. {! e9 T: r; V8 f2 d

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9 [/ N7 F3 `* M, s" w6 _& O; dBackground remarks
6 D9 a+ G9 F( P4 W3 {5 \9 N Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  Q; Q& L. I9 Z+ e: T" Z! Vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# p3 X$ Q0 d7 L! x
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 M# q5 J$ M( _  v0 H3 z- W8 r* padjustments.
5 |1 c2 i* p5 J4 I5 c This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# h9 l0 y  |; o# U8 w& Zsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" B# I+ o  [. i& K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 d: h# c) q! ?6 X" v! i
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) b4 X, R3 L, r0 ~! S# _! [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( R2 f% \9 q7 W5 R: Z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
- z5 @0 b% n2 b; P4 `- ~ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, U+ M) J0 r  ]/ `7 r8 T5 T. i, q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 C0 N6 p2 ]$ x7 ]1 X
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' W1 \5 ?7 L5 g2 z% j
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 S) w) _9 B8 x4 Jreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- V2 T% E$ I. r  H& @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  c, J" O6 Q; J( M0 O1 ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. y8 ?# ]0 {+ a& I/ ^" _impose liquidation values." C8 @" M: U, ~5 ~7 E* m
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) z! }: M, ]5 K* w4 UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  Y9 H  X0 c  B0 r% E$ S The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 |- o) ?, }* _
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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: l; T" A$ E/ |( n/ K7 O$ |- X0 PA look at credit markets
# R5 I! O4 G+ U9 u0 Z7 N6 G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  b6 c. O! q3 R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 J( H: _( W# r5 V3 T) Z: e8 V
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" Q6 M$ m& V% M$ a' hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- H& \4 ^% w' I
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! l- [  h8 t( j- _6 ?* B9 k% oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- J; X! K) N0 {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% M+ _. i3 d6 c7 |) t$ J5 `( p7 zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield., x  i" H3 X( v' E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 t, M3 \) w0 K3 x: ?! Q$ n" r5 pfinding financing.! |: x4 x; T. Z. Z* U& a
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! V, S  {( A3 o; B/ r2 ]' [0 gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 o$ t9 L) U5 _7 {. \- I Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! h% }# {, \" E3 f! e; q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" L  t; F* U7 z8 w' J
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) a+ z. ~3 |) Jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 [' S4 C' o& `: M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" x5 \4 `, N! O8 ytoday.) B% G. n  o! h8 M1 ^8 D) e+ F9 B
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 ?, x& G9 A% n5 r9 d  Q) J# d
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) h3 {0 m4 X! |9 f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 |; Z3 t1 h$ ]the Greek default.  V2 N* X* T3 r0 \' L( O3 X
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( V4 I5 ?3 ?1 D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. `0 L0 K% e  r4 Z+ x5 i0 p# k
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 e% D1 O5 d! r7 C: i6 T! T6 kdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 L  Z2 k8 G5 x" y6 T" c2 b+ ^3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 e! c7 [- d; p( a1 v& t6 Y2 O
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 Q4 X) y  B6 L% }1 C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
, M5 J" {8 F  }1 N  g' r The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* `  Q2 b- G9 L
but that was before Italy.* }! C$ S+ {4 K  X% I* k1 L
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# }$ b; y! Y5 E) w$ @& I
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 @, ^% x: j5 V9 f" P9 LItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
% M( @9 O4 N$ v  L5 f; u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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