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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% x" r: {0 k& x
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Market Commentary
5 c8 q# r1 E& rEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# L  r# L/ x3 Z0 u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 {; P- k, D0 \7 pSignature Global Advisors
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9 n6 ^1 O" a. v& G+ T+ h
Background remarks; Y$ y( z4 o8 G( @, s% K0 K
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 i! |: Q4 m/ Q, @2 z2 D' F$ ~$ Uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( z" E9 r  F! A3 ]2 \
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; C5 e/ G! J' O- Eadjustments.
! G% T2 x/ y& P; q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! {5 h1 K5 J5 V, ~safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 v$ W' p4 k( K/ j! W0 l  F7 A  o Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 j& f4 Q, J3 ^! h" P( Y; q3 zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" r8 s* w9 N- z; U2 @ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 L$ V( f9 e8 {1 C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
+ d: U" r1 Z7 W3 E  B5 H! ] Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 \3 ?7 \2 [6 R
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 x2 {2 B2 B1 @' K% u8 w( P
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 q7 Y/ L4 v/ @0 |3 r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 U' T: z8 o0 E: f$ n+ ]9 R' G# H* Kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation1 z' P4 `# ?) k. W7 C5 S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% m0 e, w. X* H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 G' B5 v( }3 Fimpose liquidation values.2 V; f) M! j5 U2 b9 L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 x+ M1 F' \! [# b! v, Y3 P) M
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" X: s0 s/ }8 a. [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' \7 z' ]2 A/ S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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% Q: ^- V+ @& XA look at credit markets
  h9 m# G+ [' L+ J# i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) Z3 [& v8 x& }6 R+ ]) j( A: |September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ N: H8 Y5 S5 j& a, K$ P) F3 a% H5 n
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! R6 R* V: m0 f  C$ m: |% Nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" R/ j) F5 t+ H/ |  e# r
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 a" Z! N9 r6 S0 F5 h5 _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 s2 f, r4 }2 w! L' sCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. R+ u) m, R1 v3 L$ d/ k
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ V# u+ k1 E! M+ z7 U/ }+ L$ b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 u) T- @# l+ n' R7 K/ N! L- \
finding financing.7 K6 F& r( Z; a4 e( `: B$ v, I5 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# V+ [( R) v3 b3 y7 P# z: R; Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' c6 u: `7 V/ y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ b1 E; c- }! }is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 D+ Q% {2 R: l' Q6 G
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  C& R7 L3 f; ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 v8 k: M) i* p
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 k& X& w# t. M; r) y  y: btoday.4 W1 J% o( D+ H2 ]
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" T3 }" G4 u+ g; q0 V$ X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 _) |' K3 B: L' j1 O4 F# @
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- M* U+ Z% t6 L! b6 O" a& |
the Greek default.
8 D# z  X& ~$ R& C As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 X8 V! C' f3 B( m$ A% A; |1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 {! U- F/ W6 f/ o  w2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 E: U' ]) L0 q& F* |debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 C; D7 t3 c/ q+ [& i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  n# {0 B3 y3 t) J$ Z4 I9 X
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" }6 G/ a! M* v+ \. x4 B7 E
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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' X7 x1 x9 }1 A+ Q) \Beyond Greece
# [0 L5 Y" @! z" ]( f2 R% e+ E7 k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' I# d9 V4 ]: @+ O# r% G. q+ ]
but that was before Italy.1 o4 A+ l# t* p* Z- H" c/ x
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
2 e' }' m; R0 ] It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 ?% d, ?- @+ p- S* k! M: e
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
4 r0 W8 p- X# z% B We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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