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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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& Q$ h. V/ w! {+ B) }4 G2 EMarket Commentary
) @7 ~/ _& R1 k0 ?- D4 zEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 O; H: B6 H9 f+ o7 _7 B) p  r& B
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 \* s9 K. i. c0 S9 P- C& B3 m& VSignature Global Advisors
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9 x1 Z8 l& n3 v
Background remarks2 q8 |; m* d; q  R7 {/ ~6 }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- s' T, g# T) |. g+ }
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.% J& e5 H, W4 V$ }& r" {/ g, O
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( a4 z# F- }: t: |  Tadjustments.; H0 `, `: e4 x/ \5 X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& M% c1 D. s/ q1 F
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 I4 N" g8 P% Z( G$ {5 d Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% ^( e  S% f, {6 dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ M- r, u4 Q$ i5 x- { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 w" N$ a* A3 S6 L2 }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 i) R. {' l. K* ^# i7 ?. j Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ H, o) J+ b( E" Hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. [* r" N! t5 E$ U- @; F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ S& f8 Y5 H: x! C8 B  V9 D8 @
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; ?; Q7 U; e  D$ K4 Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 A! }# I. e/ P9 F1 R$ ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; g2 M0 _7 }* J0 ?' }
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( c) |; ]7 Y: \) U( e1 @impose liquidation values.- N7 ~' {  o; s  ]% t
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; E! p$ H" v  zAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ V& O/ k' l& o% F4 _* q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. q5 I1 l. ]7 \  L
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 D& [8 m. l1 Z, {/ `& y6 @4 _

) L% X3 w$ w) G, I3 M  wA look at credit markets
8 @- u. L8 H( B: V; o8 u! P4 q1 g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ c# x* g: S# E/ q5 c3 `7 M
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! |7 W6 r4 }6 A1 } High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ ~) s. k4 w/ q3 S0 G& p+ Y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) ^9 j1 A1 ?! `  f
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ e1 |. [: z2 u5 g( _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: U" ^& ~  `1 t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 A* R; a' V0 a# e  z( S, x- Y6 ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: j. x# t+ q& d& o+ U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble9 p8 @; a) M# r/ z0 J) {: ~2 D2 P
finding financing.
. i4 Y- p" G$ x4 w7 I4 o Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; T% B5 F) l8 l$ awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* I; G! I! h% y  E, u4 L Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 D  u; ~0 B1 X, c* I6 r+ w" tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' @0 \! X8 w) N6 W0 M+ vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( W7 r0 U8 A8 p( v  l5 T
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 f$ p5 \* C! v9 R, i European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 H. r" |( t) g" e" W+ jtoday.& R% X' Z2 k3 y. J" |7 G# v; J) |; R
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' I/ j0 ]) Z4 t# \5 D0 c# B; L
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( R- J  h9 T$ u7 o. s Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 C/ Z( f; U8 d' A4 g1 S+ y: t
the Greek default.
  P& |" E9 I1 T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:" H% q. S8 d& P
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& D, J) |! x3 P: S! N: q; _/ ^' b2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, W. {9 }6 U, ?
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 N' _' b1 x+ N' ~$ {5 n3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) {' ?/ j! F4 z& O
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 l$ y& {' |, ^( g4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 T4 X5 m' E5 O, f
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Beyond Greece
; t5 W6 e( r( n: B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: \5 b8 r9 y6 V2 V9 N8 g* l
but that was before Italy.- \2 R$ ^% L, e$ {1 |8 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.6 S1 y0 W5 ~7 d
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; ^9 H( [" O4 S6 S% i5 MItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion+ h$ G* n: x) ^" Q! X5 H. R9 z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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