埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3657|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 V5 Q7 g/ W- B8 Y/ ^
7 G" [/ s8 y" Q
Market Commentary7 W& [, a2 {/ k: b* X
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
5 @% [' i4 x! n  a" X& kJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. \9 w8 R. c0 ?0 h# e: c3 MSignature Global Advisors
  t/ }+ |5 ]; f" @: j, U6 j/ }+ k6 u  i# U5 m) m/ g* p
3 H3 f; d& {# n$ o7 V
Background remarks
! l6 T8 o% r5 K' T Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 A* X. n9 H; [" X3 Bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." D, b; i0 i" I+ o6 K2 f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: p. T7 y# ~" g, }1 Eadjustments.
/ @- C2 y0 u/ m7 Z' S, v This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  d6 n# ^! ^; T6 G8 `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; t4 i& e7 c9 T1 S Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 x3 v8 Z5 L) c/ V- E  }: H# {lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 n) X, i$ g) N5 @ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  Q  f7 S  T& a* A5 ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% N( C1 P8 U6 D6 W* t1 W( s* i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 e7 A& [6 ]7 i; [0 o3 vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 S: M3 H( O1 q( L2 Q
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* i0 `# X) A8 m- ] Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! N% o* H* ^& G" g3 E  wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" Q9 M: T7 W; Z: K
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ A- X& A- [4 D/ s7 h  V! ]( |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# ~  K5 P6 x" \, v# A! f- Z' I
impose liquidation values.
0 k$ p& }9 G9 U" x% w( L: J1 I In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; X9 @6 R' [; F5 mAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: J/ c) o- K+ W% e) {8 D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% f! X3 t6 h: ~. c6 Z" j5 i
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
1 q( j, [' P; A6 ~( F) v! j$ y! |: i. r0 v
A look at credit markets
0 G) o) M9 Q  X9 A% x Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ z/ j  ]' z( `* A8 d, p3 S( oSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! S: p0 z1 y" _5 x/ ?! r8 X- H2 K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" Z* ?+ t; U. Q# A7 @$ u
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% B$ Q. G7 A' U5 j6 Z* I+ S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) \9 n$ \8 o3 c2 Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; L  w  b  B4 t5 u+ `
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: {  E5 [$ U* g9 W7 K
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ Z2 Y3 `# d( @3 t& {8 p
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ V( X/ j1 d, r3 w+ B# ]finding financing.5 t" c- |3 ?6 a5 r' B: V+ {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) _- o- _' B) ^% ]1 t: O. L
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 [* d# F5 \) q1 a9 |/ n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 z" Y( q( p0 O& M/ c
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  T# s0 i( h9 S% Z1 e: Dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
' F5 ^0 ~7 ^6 J( A% C2 h. E  ]! S9 Ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- d% a! R3 @# p0 r( r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  X. j4 y4 s7 \. itoday.8 F+ r- Z2 [9 h0 w
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 s. n0 k! E" Z3 V  k" f$ p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 s5 q1 m- ]$ O& d5 @' t0 \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 C, [% t9 p- u8 T. @9 E+ w
the Greek default.$ L' ^) p% A% Z+ S% `, S/ V
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 J7 n0 W$ c, s! N2 ]8 a- ?! E& y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, |% W$ o' M( u
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: H) [% C- Q% ~/ r, Odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 V9 Y( O7 m& V; t) V5 i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( Q+ b( a+ @8 V  T9 ?2 }0 wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" ]( ?3 M+ U3 @! ~+ O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
0 d- N( k( n" E% u9 e7 m
  k  a( b' H/ u5 ?9 V  d3 Q4 b8 ]Beyond Greece
0 Y# s  R8 H& e& z& H4 |* k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! e9 w/ O9 ]7 Z3 [6 {7 u: d) Rbut that was before Italy.0 @) j+ ?0 w  K2 B6 Y' W5 ]
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! \4 M& d( d$ F9 }8 w
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! G* q6 t4 q* x. @9 o: a$ z: HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& m6 P" D7 f2 R3 W/ d2 U5 R) s' i
+ ~7 J. E5 G. R$ y
Conclusion: T8 @- v; @) _4 W
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-14 16:34 , Processed in 0.084335 second(s), 13 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表