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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 }! x0 W$ ^* ~- `& s7 b3 a
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Market Commentary
1 F/ l2 h$ A' I5 o# V. T6 \( hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 N( o$ c  a8 K# s
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 F5 z, X$ Z: G2 vSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
/ y9 z0 U1 f& i' {* S# f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 o5 P4 p% L* W; _9 J" [! ^as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 i7 `6 l# z, X( m9 F
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: k" k0 u( L# M4 l9 g( B; aadjustments.) y/ ~7 [1 Y4 K% }
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( f2 y8 Q& I- k( @/ T' x
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( ]. C, w( q3 k
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! ?9 \0 C' L; h# Q& ~! ^lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ }! ^. q' y' X9 i2 A3 T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. d5 {- f0 c1 g( C. X8 J3 m$ K2 ]
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: x4 C7 a6 ?& n( P  S
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 s) r3 L% T6 R
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ I/ k7 o3 T7 P# R% U" B$ g6 _
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" V3 T$ u, a# C# y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* x3 }4 `# E, u
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# ]/ G) m; Q3 r* N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 v* u9 Q8 o3 g: t9 O& t
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 g  Q) M* g/ |, b% Ximpose liquidation values.
" L. @: |8 g1 v: Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 D) t% s/ B2 A% B, {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 L7 D3 T3 n! t5 _. U' X The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: k) }7 |, {4 C
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& _6 h4 }. u1 a+ V. e  e6 |! t. K

, j8 c6 n3 T" h: nA look at credit markets5 }8 m/ b. u% O$ n# d% L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 a! |3 B8 I8 _; j  c3 a/ b
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* E" ]1 Q9 @/ H4 G- o2 _  j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ M8 q; i* |; Z3 r6 u
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
" t7 J" g$ u! b  E& U- `6 rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, ?7 e* |  N* [' n+ Eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) s5 s, |+ h! j3 w$ p3 h
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, ]5 v. A7 @5 [7 G4 f3 f
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 x  l% Q. Q# ~/ i/ s
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: J- O; x; ~8 Bfinding financing.6 P5 k% Q2 p9 q/ V3 X
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ X3 r* i) M- X, Swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& y/ |, N7 S( ~7 h2 T# b# r- \ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# c+ m# d/ l5 I5 F2 T6 s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" a9 w4 G( v1 v  y( wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, E+ a. m& `) @! [
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- m, i, V# e6 p7 A% s European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! e2 X9 y" i0 H6 T' O# O
today.
: y( U; m. V0 p  l( w/ @ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ R% }5 F5 O( O# T( z$ H- {$ X. }emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 B4 E  ^! I' i! d8 w- v* ^ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, x. D7 I, s6 \. Y0 O
the Greek default.* Y/ I% w- t! s( e7 W6 _
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! m* I+ e9 f: s; p1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 H. R) y8 z5 E; }$ G2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign+ H  R, C0 H& K" l/ r  f
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 N* l  R# W4 z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 x9 [# `& m$ ?2 Obanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. l/ R) ~: \5 T' \! G) r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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& n# A3 `- O/ ~; i9 aBeyond Greece
$ B+ e+ G3 G9 p0 A/ k The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% W& v- ~7 Y) mbut that was before Italy.# x7 p# j& a7 p6 t- D
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  r: e$ B0 W/ B; V9 j) Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) }% k" ]+ h9 gItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion  ?) z; l$ O) d
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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