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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 h: T+ q$ L" H4 \7 H
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Market Commentary
0 K5 h3 x  l9 I6 JEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer. `/ }8 U* @* V1 @  u9 v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 Q1 [& n2 N6 s$ Z
Signature Global Advisors, @/ }; b' V, n4 V5 b/ u! H3 m! P1 y$ \- x
2 R4 ~1 }; N# S3 {  v4 ^

' |6 J1 `$ K- `9 q' G1 Y2 Q8 f" KBackground remarks, |: e2 ?% P7 x1 m2 N# t( p3 Q" ^, Z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 v4 N7 N5 Q" \! [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 v1 [, S8 I% B9 e+ H& W Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* U4 {) S7 G  F( J
adjustments.
# T' S% w% E$ ^! R; d4 Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& {* r0 F/ ^, b# Fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 f. e" O7 A0 W( ~( }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: d. q. B& y# Y# ^
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" ?: O4 E" c% X6 k+ N  i We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* Z( t" T( K+ t  R. E: U4 m8 yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# i. d" \$ A) e' |, ]0 D3 z- F! P
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 u- {* w% _& N. U8 j- D
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* }$ O, `5 t, x# P* a1 F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 B% h# H0 I  A, o Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, N$ q7 {: E0 O* Freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 }+ K  ~% b! ]$ a* v) q: M  j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 `6 q1 Y2 t  q2 C- J9 H  Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( f6 ~! I2 N. \& _
impose liquidation values.
5 K! k9 K8 y( X% | In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 v$ [. G* W5 f' O( m6 D" z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" U  K# n0 u% |0 R/ E; F% b& R) F The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 ^1 J' f% E0 B- A# f
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 @% \, M. a8 T+ M" \! {/ X
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A look at credit markets
9 ?& f) }" W: z, t# F Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 G/ ]4 P. `( a+ m8 wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% u0 h: |, ?( N7 }/ Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ P1 |) k1 E) M8 ~( K3 d  a3 L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: v4 m: S" R1 s4 o' T# E8 u0 v. l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& O* L* `+ {1 h+ C2 Q. l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 G: f2 W$ q. h0 D5 o1 XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: R8 m  @# \% l
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# H5 Y. u9 ^% u* ^8 P Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, ], ^& ~+ C9 E% I% I
finding financing., N" U8 @4 n* d
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 P! M' k: D' H) Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% C. q$ J* g& M5 |4 B, N2 A
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 s! e, S& t. W7 F- H: `  ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! q+ A- p0 G0 l1 s8 k, D7 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& _1 n4 x4 O5 a/ ^2 K
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 j; a3 M2 @7 j: P( F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 W, ]' J0 v8 ytoday.& O4 A$ w. ^( _1 [7 `- G. z9 I, `$ G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ O' o3 }. K5 l/ ~# Demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
$ e  o: ~( l  a9 h Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 P2 E; q/ D6 B% J1 r+ O
the Greek default.
7 I/ ^% @) g: @8 ^- ?  P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: _3 H$ \8 u9 k- i$ I% J, H
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ x6 O1 o) g; G  J% ~$ D
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 g. w0 u" G/ W) i% H+ Xdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' U2 Q0 L; a/ \! L- b0 J; X* m' \3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 n. Q2 a8 _' hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ F! R6 c* S5 A% ]! t* P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# J3 [2 ?6 d- ~( n

& D. G* T3 y! S% d5 n! {Beyond Greece3 J: R) f  e1 L* v
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ P" T- T; @) v' i0 a6 g" s/ Tbut that was before Italy.2 v9 {4 l; S4 ^) P  {: A2 f  D
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 P6 Y" J4 r1 }
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. ~" ?1 }5 W7 N/ ?+ u8 n1 K- ]( b
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ x* Z& i, I0 F) \3 A

: F( s- O6 x6 ]6 J" Y& ~9 JConclusion
; K$ ?) h4 X8 O! i0 x We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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