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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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  K0 r7 ^/ }7 H9 q5 `9 W" TMarket Commentary  f5 t8 Q8 ?& @: c8 H  l. O
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& e- g2 u$ Z2 X9 ?1 G2 }0 v: [* qJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 z5 N5 x5 A7 {$ E# P7 y* ~
Signature Global Advisors
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+ g( I6 c5 D0 nBackground remarks3 L! G9 m* t4 v
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  a0 w% ?5 ?# G. H: e/ Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 |- K# Z2 d9 r  K/ n Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- T* {8 f- z) T  m  r  @) b
adjustments.
, T* t+ m2 m- S; g+ ^6 _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& V% N8 L* y- F$ W2 Y2 S& Ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' K. C0 e3 `9 v: u) x( x' [6 A7 D8 j
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; A% s) V4 ?6 I6 D7 ?lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ ~- w$ U, U7 b. u' E
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these/ O+ R) [* C9 ]
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." {7 ]7 X; z. H, u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 @/ J2 M, x( [8 x! P
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ z) }4 u' g, @8 X Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 b$ b# N9 v  _) U" w. ?
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 n( j0 d5 N1 \( Xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  \* c" z# K5 f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, e9 T# p; ], m: c  Z, u- Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 a$ X7 w( ]0 N
impose liquidation values.
1 R7 v$ v5 i) R( H: q3 _ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- {7 L( Q: T( [$ x3 N& o9 yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. U1 G+ c* A4 r9 I0 X4 B" X* k" O: d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 u5 i1 K3 w9 f3 E! Gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
; E0 d& q3 O5 h. \, ~+ I Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ m, h% }- P9 U$ `; ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 i! Z1 S* H# b/ z
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 h# w# F; b0 E3 F6 o( @7 xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# B5 B# C3 l3 ~" X" y  ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ z- I0 o; A2 R
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 a6 w0 X: |$ a# ZCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 Y* h- i" w" Z7 B- Mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 p, ^, {0 o( C5 ~1 ?: n8 H. i( ~
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. o$ A+ i$ L* s; v) l6 tfinding financing.
1 T% O7 E% X; W3 z5 A1 n1 m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 Y# [. F/ _8 a# J3 u& z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! g7 ]5 X! c. X9 ?( X; {
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ j; G0 ~  {/ d: _& T0 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. A! |) j. n) Z  j6 c: C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# |* Z5 T, W; X% Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( Q9 `' I5 m( |% n1 E4 W5 Z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' T! }& ~  X: T/ [, C7 Btoday.$ Y% w: ?, w- a3 E8 b
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 Z' a. m1 f( s8 pemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda. b- U8 h# i" y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ v5 m; O1 Y8 h: t$ @
the Greek default.
- B  U7 d. e, z6 v* X' U As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ o. G+ ?* _" o% D% g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default# P6 Z0 E7 t2 H5 ?* y+ o0 O
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' i# i& D' ], _% P  Q) F7 V1 Cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 h4 y9 M7 l9 E1 U$ o# {
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! K" M$ t  `# z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 }" C: m7 ?5 O: |! W
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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5 B* \( o2 _) O3 }* ~  zBeyond Greece/ T. l! v# w% U/ ^' |: l( E
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 l) O7 T( K0 c0 e! g
but that was before Italy.
) Z  F; l2 d6 W5 s. w' [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ D3 c! \2 w  ~1 W! Y; W5 p7 r It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the' Y+ @9 ^' G& m
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
  Z# c  v- A$ m  P We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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