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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' b1 o  e* e. }* p- h( Z

& v) o1 |1 V6 a3 `Market Commentary) M* }0 U! ?! W! `0 E' M4 g# S
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ f5 {: {/ }5 E) y2 EJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 s; l, p) ^: h7 s( ^Signature Global Advisors
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; w' V/ g5 A# h1 c7 p4 w8 uBackground remarks6 j/ O5 R& J" b! p3 S. J5 j% h
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# \- Y! s3 S. ?
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# U( L+ q1 i4 G2 v- o; L; N
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. V1 |9 X8 i0 R2 ~2 f, m  C) gadjustments.8 I) }7 q1 \4 q+ P
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ S! m- w6 W( o6 }/ S4 j! T
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 u- `1 Y: {7 X$ |$ R' j' \1 N
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) q: f# O+ `$ X# Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners., }5 _/ L; H, u+ z9 y7 O+ s* P" H9 U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ X' j( l0 f& l& R# uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# c% s% K( {! s$ l0 u/ P$ g; e Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* T# W. H; Z: ?( N, v/ U$ h
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! s3 f3 b. n' u  P9 @/ b
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) q$ Q$ A& P8 h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- o' ]3 X% K. u1 f; U& E" _
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 ?3 V- P. X9 U  g1 e; x9 }  c The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 c; s4 Y3 {* y) B( k
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) D1 Z" \; d  A6 t
impose liquidation values.9 E# Y( z" g/ F5 |: p, h- I) p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 Z+ r2 p" ^1 RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- c0 |5 F8 H5 w0 }7 A8 {8 c The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( L( K7 T) d7 l' I# Pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! W' ]; a& ^6 K, T3 D% \; j
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A look at credit markets3 N" Q6 Y5 Y2 P. t4 M$ p8 Y3 X; t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( o/ c# C5 Y2 J8 b. R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. _; H9 V: `/ X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%( K& V. W: n. W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" [0 G- {1 B: b" Z8 ^
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# P2 ]6 ~9 ], j6 A) zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! A$ M' t4 |* m' N% Z$ O8 }CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 i" t4 x! B) u6 _+ Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- Q: H% B; k+ H( \2 ^# h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. f. \% `1 D, p- F
finding financing.+ d8 L" `3 l; h) ~0 J; T6 q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ z- B6 E6 g* z* l) O: Owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 \' _. I$ t  |! f3 I+ L Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) C, P* \$ M4 x1 q4 x
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ a4 m: f6 ?( v5 h$ ^- i. m6 ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 R$ H- s. u% A: b. i- X0 Abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# ~+ [/ L3 W  N7 `, |1 t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ [9 \; Q6 z, v) \( P/ R( d
today.
1 v6 W6 @  u+ }9 W; K7 j5 h; D Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% q9 i/ ?3 n& [9 m' Aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( Q  }$ y/ Z- _7 T$ _0 J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% ]; ~5 x4 Y. w  }$ t) ?2 I; _9 P
the Greek default.0 t2 h6 |; S. ?! e# y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 O8 Q! v! r+ a; R% X  i& |1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' l/ n; T6 S# C0 D% ^2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ e# F8 ~* z0 t$ u7 ^, Mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
$ ]6 a. f0 t4 F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* `/ b" b+ r3 P* jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* x, n8 J6 y& v1 A' `$ _4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., k7 i) F# z8 K9 R- @

, w5 {8 ?) [# FBeyond Greece/ V* ~% |+ g; L$ ?
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: u2 V4 I% ]: I# t# V) W' d5 Fbut that was before Italy.
2 p0 j$ K7 X7 l% c4 p% r It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ b1 F; r+ \: S" A  V; T' u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ J/ J2 `6 {- G' z, r# ~$ O4 o' v; `
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# M$ y# J, N# E! F9 q
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Conclusion  X  }8 ^; s: a0 U3 Q& K: M
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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