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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( ^! {: x9 p" T5 y
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Market Commentary1 T. b  D2 R2 P2 Q' ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% j$ r1 y6 _6 Y4 `
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( D( U, P" B- |. O4 w' [! M  e
Signature Global Advisors1 a4 m. A. r9 J. |0 S- |

1 {6 F& a3 B; A) S
  C8 o0 T8 X9 }' yBackground remarks/ k) D" @/ z+ b2 A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
% N) m. E" |9 H7 s$ o+ f, Pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 y' q: Q0 U8 @: X2 F+ }$ U
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' x# E0 O/ b* n# V" K
adjustments.
+ I0 E. x' C7 r+ A3 R% }/ _ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; ^! H( G( ?' C# e
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 R7 g, p. t' ?1 V+ e+ Q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are- G$ t( ~$ K+ C* R" O( V
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& U/ b" E! Y0 R* C( X
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. N8 T5 y1 T! Y9 a4 t" Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 p/ e8 h2 b4 ~# F8 F4 x9 g; ^
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 h; T+ g- G2 E2 ?" Q6 w3 P
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
+ y: R' X9 }0 q% t" W Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.5 S- U: X0 X- |/ }
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
% X- M, K4 Q- l2 W1 hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& K  Y- k5 W5 D8 ?9 @8 q2 { The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 j' j6 n* F; Z4 p* c7 L2 Gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may4 e$ i& G9 a3 }; N2 Z
impose liquidation values.2 u+ S- K: e; n) P( m: e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ Z: s, F4 s2 l+ `8 C8 d4 hAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( f/ n1 \/ {+ s4 W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ ^! V7 \0 M  ]0 }& ~! x& e+ u* F% l
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
2 A3 U) X) Y# r5 x/ u
+ ^/ ?3 \4 e. {# t  J; ~8 eA look at credit markets: E" a3 O1 q3 j5 K% q0 R4 T
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
! z. V9 ~  Q; {September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- y7 U3 m/ G; O8 i) I( m) ^
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; P! d$ F& W" T7 `: V
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ Q. l+ h" |# O) bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' u/ A( r* {" Z& ^/ M  c2 zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ d. w/ f" M$ y9 |
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are  e. }/ S* C6 h# A; e3 x
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 ~- U) `  {4 W3 q% R: I8 Y; K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, J' b9 }9 r/ A7 A  ffinding financing.
. ^; j8 N& h# o3 B, {; | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 D6 B5 V3 d& b+ ~8 i% g  A3 A3 fwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 J& [# O$ g: }; U* z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- ^% N7 |  Q5 z+ R
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 M$ q: ]  i5 U; w+ i  N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& ^$ c2 t0 u* O/ f7 s# D; E8 kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: b2 ~! i6 k# e! r7 @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! _, y  g; X1 B0 S/ U( j
today.2 P% S/ u  I! f) @/ V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ A1 J' h$ A" F  {! }( V% Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ ^6 m6 X/ [; `
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* k' n; D; K: f# d' b  vthe Greek default.
! o8 Q) w2 `: y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 g/ s  F( F+ y# I# w
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! x& u  ~; @/ f9 b
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* h* m9 B  L  S- d# c
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  {$ |* h- L& r. ]" ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% C% ^4 T. e$ t' A* x7 |
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* v# w# I6 Q+ u$ f2 O9 ~
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% M, u+ G7 O% w- r  C1 P
6 k$ f  M( l% G/ l/ |
Beyond Greece
$ H( C: {' T1 p, D, s) a The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 x" a1 l/ k4 Y
but that was before Italy.
: \8 c3 N% q" w% K( |& g+ [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 m' g5 J. O9 S' ~6 W7 i7 J; p
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; ?& G4 C* y: S5 U5 \1 R. UItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 b. g* k  H( O# M$ y

1 s! ?; E, b* O; CConclusion
5 Q7 ]7 F: v( E0 J! [2 Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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