市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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* X5 W( [( s# D( u1 }Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
' w  {2 \9 ^2 h1 K( |James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 \1 ?# R: m3 D  `7 v* A" I& WSignature Global Advisors
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8 W0 h# C# G5 L% R0 i1 K- [Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) Y# `; O' G! @# i& i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* ?# m2 \* f1 ~# c) X# Madjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ r# `, \+ v0 _, o. G- Tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 m) e# e! H, K/ ]0 _ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ v; h9 h5 ?5 } We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' I6 I! d# `9 H0 G8 k9 [3 w8 Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) g* ~4 F. E  W* I& l& }- j1 ] Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 ^6 s( C8 Q- M2 I3 S: G Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" H. H# d8 S  [2 kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
2 N) \; |0 K! [2 S( X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% e  S5 ?1 [  ?5 las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" J9 k  T* b  B1 w# E: gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 K* }% O: V) T: _$ c; g8 hscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' K/ H! z# l/ p' S( a; iA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 n1 n! D) [# V( I& z! @% fSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 L/ t" p5 V' F4 o6 l! |  |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* ]& ?" ?( R* H" n( Xbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( ?/ R& Y& {+ g2 _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 d+ ]" e4 X, D6 Y- X5 F- p! \1 M* Y( I5 aCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) H5 _% b+ s5 D! ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 G( r; \# j- E7 k. E  K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ Q* E; }( K% }; l. Sfinding financing.
$ J+ t, ^* D: `* t" M% z) Y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 N- c2 c: q. a  B) {9 z6 pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; m3 O$ H* c1 o5 }going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 H% d. z" g5 I+ d1 t" P1 jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 U# j9 X1 ~/ Q0 F( a* I* l1 `emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
. H0 n4 }5 J3 u  o; V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
" U3 i6 G7 z/ H0 C9 X  P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 ^: `6 q0 x& r* \1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% D! B5 J+ M* `' F$ J, {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 y: O* s1 I/ [3 e1 m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 d" r$ S7 T) m  B% f4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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' p: i6 c& C, Z; QBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' _6 T) V9 T8 `# u0 kbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( P, k( G* P  m/ } It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) s3 W4 Q8 G" z4 j3 a. {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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, N2 t4 X  \" @Conclusion
) x' F6 V9 k; u" D6 v, J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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