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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& C% y, Z9 @& x! S/ Z
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Market Commentary! F  T5 S2 a; f( \' i
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, w& X* t; J1 V5 }) C
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
* h9 D; C% I4 K9 P) GSignature Global Advisors: N$ f: {; q/ a4 V3 D# b

# f0 H! J# Y( ^% x; N# [! y' s8 @3 q5 L  ]# o) n2 J' C
Background remarks6 L" k& c+ s3 f$ b  Y& E
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ e1 X1 Y3 v% i" x0 u: G& B
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 c/ f; [! _, t' `/ u& P
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 W! G( ]  A' [" ~  I+ v+ k
adjustments.
% j. s. [6 o* G# D! b, b; R  _+ y" k This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( p+ g- D; I+ x8 \2 ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- m+ R8 J* E7 r: w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are/ n, m# B3 o, }! U# l( A1 ]* L
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) t6 Q* s5 }, p+ D3 o* J" K0 j We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 C5 y( ?3 S; badjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ o5 y9 r: V5 s' Y0 i- G
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 `# F  K/ K  {; [' u9 Mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& h# k4 N3 T  G* G8 s1 u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% y0 c2 i* m1 Z5 T# o Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 r8 s; m: P! m1 r, Yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 [, e# L% u. [1 O# | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 \6 l' i$ c! N* K/ C5 xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- f! d) ^$ f; J3 s1 vimpose liquidation values.7 \: s3 f% T3 ]' d3 E' f  U* R
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, l9 a: L! p7 C. t
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& V5 k9 P' b: x  U. w The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! M) y9 {; @' T" ^& ^
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 G1 P0 x$ ?3 a. X0 m

3 z' O/ X7 D  Z/ T+ y6 DA look at credit markets
3 x" Y7 M  U$ ^) o# {1 M Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 R; _' i. n! H3 P# ^' W7 f
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 Q$ n) k2 F# d, v; _* d6 d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ |3 r2 e- v, |6 ]; m) a. T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' y/ E% m8 E0 z2 l% w0 Pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 a! H. A) i& \( I
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  ?( A! M' M. o' y' [4 c) s; m8 L3 m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" S4 ]# ?' P4 R
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 q, f* X% L7 p1 u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 v0 S) ~' u. S* G5 ifinding financing.) p( X0 o- D& d4 g. P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: q# Q- D  V* s) G% t+ H( x
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% G  T* W, W) j( F/ q0 [+ z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) U+ {$ m: o/ y. S/ U/ [
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 o8 C5 W' @0 ^# x1 I) ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 a; [2 b" b1 G4 V
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. R% W4 g7 `% u$ T6 R. w# H European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" l" _  }# o$ Ztoday.
  {% H5 E, W: J; z: n  J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& n1 N* Q) K: P3 Memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 n: N, p$ V: G4 U Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 j4 \9 i' z3 r5 `( w
the Greek default.8 ~! I- |  t" x- B' w/ Y( X& U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 d# z2 o" H* t! t/ }6 x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 `3 g1 n4 D' r5 U. {
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- C7 \+ R1 R; I. f, wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ ~: h  i( M6 ]4 _8 L3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# C; U8 [! \5 F9 m4 r
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
/ n* x! W0 e4 Z0 c* V4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 ]& ?. S# T8 @! O- v6 I+ N7 Z& ]

. j, o- |$ f0 f0 i; W* KBeyond Greece/ v% o* {. i7 E3 G' Y' h- i* |
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 E4 @. U$ Z0 y2 ybut that was before Italy.3 H+ H+ h) J2 Q+ w* O: ^) k, m
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' {) |- X& n  g* H' K7 p7 a1 X  F
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 z) `* C* m; ^Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% X" o7 d1 z2 f; {' k  U8 f. @
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Conclusion
3 G! t& t. R. Z1 C8 a We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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