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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 i- X7 D: O. O: t8 X) X6 g

& l2 q5 M: D/ W( W* h1 QMarket Commentary
0 D4 ~. C* Y% _! b: x$ sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 o- m! ]( I' \4 q4 E5 R8 g1 l+ q
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* {0 }5 T0 v+ B" w1 n7 J; I8 _
Signature Global Advisors3 ]; l' h, I2 n/ l1 Y8 O0 Y, C
2 q: |/ _2 E9 ^8 Q$ z
" c, k/ V8 C3 a
Background remarks
1 E0 a  E8 i0 r# [" U( o Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! |+ s4 Z* M$ L3 B4 H) |
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( I2 h1 d7 q: c9 C
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& s% ?. i4 Z' q( b7 t7 Sadjustments.8 ^, Y* X4 R+ g1 s
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  h0 ^( ]- G; P4 {) \
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.& f- a& Q$ i' c0 Y& `; b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  a9 z5 [9 r4 Z  z, @1 h, g! F- u
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners., R4 i, M4 f4 J: ^( Z7 w) t$ @
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ D% n  C1 s: H4 K2 W4 }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: t: Z0 e8 D/ i
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: I& E6 J9 H/ E4 p) \quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! G7 L" S) f. N# L8 D8 J Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  [, y, T; f3 ]! v$ M1 ]3 B/ R
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have( d+ c* K! E0 o" g7 k& \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 h9 }! i! T( W0 g: R6 D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ s8 b0 {! h* V$ J# b
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* p! Q& R, {7 H3 R7 t! qimpose liquidation values.+ b( u" |" J: w0 Z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. H' X& A5 T4 w7 {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) W2 W# V' k( q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 K: w" @( @: N+ m8 w
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets# G, S# X5 n9 }1 C9 N) f) u% q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' d$ m, Z1 Q6 m' E6 |9 C# l6 d# USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 F2 Y2 B! [* ]4 I$ S. { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) b  e9 W" [) U5 E2 T1 o$ J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' \8 v" |" c0 W: z- Bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 m) D, w+ f: }: ?" N2 _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 J: F7 T5 n3 [/ U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 o% w7 W  N7 Z, p* x" t- D+ I- z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( ~- {( R0 T) v$ B3 B+ w, t
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" w8 o' _) b& Y4 C$ ^& d. }3 V* m- }finding financing.) ]4 ^$ T3 y8 ^7 x1 c4 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) _8 j5 s, I2 \: M' d9 ]) j4 [7 |1 i8 m- owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." b+ E9 v6 s1 O8 r' L2 T, z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 ^! F5 J1 V( D9 V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 T+ U6 r/ q- h; z* M8 H4 @going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" i; L" G. w; ^' [0 f) q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 c( X1 |# ^- b# w9 q$ M9 J  f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' `: C' N% K/ }2 x* i! O3 [today.3 e( U! D6 p" o3 l
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 \: h, V" U8 A, ]3 X1 [' P) n% i2 ~
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% `6 t# h5 `2 R. s3 ]* k! c5 j$ N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  y1 _- |. E7 ]* |1 V3 _the Greek default.
" @3 P. ]- H& |+ ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 j* I+ Z6 b2 `* ^  R, M$ I
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default* a$ `- T- o7 j) a+ A. p
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& z8 u9 u4 e* ]7 `) n3 m: ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 o5 Z' J" a& \0 H1 F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! x1 _5 u- m, r0 p: xbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 D4 u: m! A2 b4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.$ [$ x6 q3 C7 t' t
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Beyond Greece/ Q3 l* b$ _8 I7 I8 Z) G1 s
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% z3 K! I1 U% T7 B3 tbut that was before Italy.
" n# _- X# ~# ]) y8 E+ a$ r2 ?3 P, R It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) l1 `& Y5 [$ D' [4 s6 P* { It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: \* u+ f2 t/ Q. W- ?0 a: U
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
6 Y3 q# _3 Q6 [. K0 S( v" i% n3 w: p' T+ r+ ^8 r/ Y  _9 _
Conclusion% b8 j0 ]7 ]/ K$ [, x( c
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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