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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。. Y' f% W3 r8 X/ ~$ b" C

7 g& x" X/ o  J' cMarket Commentary! e+ u5 _6 [" P( t. l
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% C/ P( j" [$ B, ?" {
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 p: r& N# F; l1 Z, qSignature Global Advisors
% E& g! ]; B! u: f$ J# U1 ]8 H3 A% e! b2 s* f

" d1 j! @2 o8 n/ G$ M/ DBackground remarks' N9 A# g9 b3 t+ F- ?0 r1 @9 N( M
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ _+ J; y- X) \6 w! m* U  ~) aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 V7 L0 R# Q' o0 C' q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; X  h2 t% F; J! }adjustments.
" f/ Y" S! _0 {$ i8 Y1 B  e$ } This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ P) Z( x3 j% r4 |
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# N" O8 K9 Z3 R3 M' Y+ n4 u Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* V; [3 T( U. P4 w/ i% Q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. p( u1 a. I! j& c* y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ b' C. R9 s7 ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 o6 {! t! I# @' q/ x1 `% y: ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 m5 x4 _  e% y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& [4 b7 k$ @' ~ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 L. u- Q! l7 A" R. K9 w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! [  f' B" A/ i# v  _+ Kreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 X& [, l/ Z& R3 S, Z2 q5 ^" G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, i# S! k* ?/ \$ u  ?  M- M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 K* C, s( i; i, B  b  Q/ R
impose liquidation values.  t4 k! G: b0 v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ C, g' }- @3 V0 n  ^/ xAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- }$ E, |9 h+ m
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& F* T. S  C$ n+ z" u
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' e) l9 o8 P3 _

  i8 r6 Z! ?2 J2 B0 q+ U+ z' JA look at credit markets
9 ~6 L2 D7 |& g* m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) p3 o1 q, D$ l. l( U, \/ Y. LSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 e* v! Q8 J' B5 F9 j) S! f- U0 c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%, F) P# w) E3 T5 I
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) V! m" A7 n4 C$ ^* h4 M  Y1 M) Qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  t( O! I! k( c$ K* @3 T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 l. e; `2 Z' P5 t# [5 F" }2 Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  x, l3 p3 z0 t" j! E7 X2 Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% m. i. M$ J7 ?+ h& _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ v. t/ r& @  _8 i
finding financing.) d% t# x" x3 w- k% G3 i& w% |" \/ `
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# d* d7 Z/ I5 B. i/ D$ s
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* y7 `% U4 g: U+ Y. \& E Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 e  ^4 y8 T4 Eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 ]/ h, B6 h1 `* z9 @6 h9 X
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 e# Y: b0 Z  C& ?3 wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., [$ y4 @5 _$ T* c. B2 u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 v+ r; p) ?8 o( |3 P& Q6 }today.( `. A: s* I8 e& I2 ]: Y- G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; c; V0 b  B# }( a$ O6 q4 d
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ p1 i. s. Y! r6 X! V0 t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 d" h* w: v  P, f" ]$ Z
the Greek default.8 D+ W( [- f* \$ y8 o3 c
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% z( i1 D( J- y3 \9 z2 c
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 Q/ I. O. A. q4 t+ }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- V' k1 o7 d6 t1 gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 A; Z1 |. `. {
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& k; G# H2 G6 u& k9 f! kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 i3 @+ r8 \5 r: f1 ^
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% A0 O- x4 h) h& Z8 B) M: h
4 s( D; F/ Y: L5 l
Beyond Greece; Y2 G6 L/ @5 s0 h4 _9 b
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 B( n3 z* s( O( }3 b
but that was before Italy.
1 ?' E, s( i3 f; k" i3 X% Y, D It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  P; }+ j, H) e" {3 J  n It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
( K; o: M+ [1 GItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.2 f- j9 `# s# ]
# C: S/ ?1 ^1 T9 G! n9 ]
Conclusion& s; n8 G/ Y4 p1 S' {
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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