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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; ~9 E( g9 [: ]) O2 P
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- ]7 J( v2 Z& l: T! I" F2 m+ F
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; Z$ m4 W: o+ G' P# T5 Cimpose liquidation values.
5 L R+ K) Y7 Y+ Q/ y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; X" u- C/ c0 J* e* I) J; L% CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# C- p$ W8 I4 z. q+ V5 T% U
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 j3 ?. S7 u+ y( d6 T4 z$ sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ G" l8 @, S. k# {, C, Q) C
: z/ q" p8 v FA look at credit markets
- d6 n9 Q1 v) v9 m2 T Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, T. B1 g) g. J4 L$ k$ e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 B: l; `9 x( y3 }. W x6 b$ ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 N6 c- l9 J8 }0 R e& athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ F* M$ I w) ^7 A" M" Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' r% l4 L- y/ A5 i/ Y: qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 l2 y U0 L' g( gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" `& p* y* B1 w3 g1 Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 Q2 M/ r \2 Y1 p g c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 m* o* Z5 m3 L/ \finding financing.$ r* X' K8 C" X: t; V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 r: S- K8 E2 a: F" @5 ]6 X, v1 G
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& \0 z% D! E0 I3 v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 Z! X' L3 F8 b9 f5 Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, G* G3 B" U* _$ E3 T n& N2 x
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 w& m; A% e0 Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( O; U. F& r7 n! P European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
n# k8 c5 ?. V- Ftoday.
" Z1 m6 Z4 U6 y; b$ R, j J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% F5 U1 r9 U( g! j! c
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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