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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  k) J) k. b. X& g' x: O" p
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Market Commentary" A; o3 E7 c) X+ L/ A
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 w# }, |2 C; s
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% I3 b# l" g& _. d
Signature Global Advisors
# c( l/ m+ M1 L" B  K
/ o* D$ h2 c! I& w. e6 n  v
* g' }3 W& Z$ L" O- K8 DBackground remarks
# D- g7 D& U5 s- J& M( L' s Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ T4 b- m; z+ w/ D! ^8 N  zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ F& \. v! i. R: ]$ G7 M7 m Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" O, H2 `! H3 ?# n. f6 s! @% [
adjustments.
0 s5 d9 L- O; b( j$ L$ i& E3 C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( N/ A1 \. D/ C0 osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." z  L! N) k- e) L
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 J  x! H2 B8 e( m) r& j6 Z) E% vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
# h8 H0 x0 [: k! u# I4 E, s# e9 U We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these' m9 W6 ]6 _) {
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* N0 ?: r& G1 _2 u7 X. H/ a! a Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* x# I9 y% Z: G! a( `5 equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) O: S. w2 @! E Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 X0 V/ w7 J& c4 U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 b# a3 Y2 O( g) Y9 j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) O0 A: i! _( Z0 { The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& D7 Y9 U3 c% S+ X1 }. yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ F$ c2 Q- o8 ^6 k! z1 t7 t6 ?1 H" l
impose liquidation values.
# i$ `$ V  ~' Z* f8 A0 Q) ~* I In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) }- Y3 N$ P0 |  c' G% xAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 n2 L/ Q; `# Q' C! ~) [# F# D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 P7 B4 S& b! \1 \5 X
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
5 s6 I3 G5 \* ?
5 x( ?& S, |5 F, d* _A look at credit markets
( T  ]* L$ Z* p" q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! \& u! }* f# M7 ?, y0 P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( r5 [* y+ |' q! Y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& S4 a& `4 i  p4 X- xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ S3 j( ~$ l" B$ V& k3 b& ]billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! ?. m9 i4 V' Z9 i/ p, _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 z/ c. F* w5 ^! `CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, W2 Y, |9 }. {; Z9 r3 Lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ @  o, O- L  O( Z2 n
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) l0 }: g3 m  e8 H1 w0 Mfinding financing.
0 {; `' _) ~# h7 ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 D( T/ t/ l3 z# xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 f+ p% [+ k! |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 W+ y7 G$ U# d% Z2 v) a9 p
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( _1 H' O5 \8 k: i5 F" T- k) U: O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 U' Z% G+ c: W# Q! @( H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, _5 K2 K6 l% x" r European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" g" r5 {5 c% G0 K6 L
today.$ v6 G. P/ d, |% K8 D0 c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: l$ K8 V$ w) ^9 jemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
/ L& D, x! A* i' a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 F* G9 E, Y8 ^2 N, Uthe Greek default.1 d/ I- ?2 E2 \
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 Q. [5 Z4 i4 }' g- ?4 I
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 @! U8 x3 R7 Z8 ^; y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 K+ d: M/ x/ a) C6 `6 d6 C
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, D9 A6 Q# e8 a3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 S; X! S: \. y# T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years; T# e/ j$ u4 v. o  @
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. f: f$ j' Q. l7 l- J7 E% R

; M# P0 b# w8 i& z/ c6 xBeyond Greece" q$ n! g. Z4 U! D. K
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; N% f- w9 H) A. s, }but that was before Italy.
( j: w. z( Q% N It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' |# S1 P6 x+ a' q" f2 E1 F
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, b5 w/ A; i) d0 e! T
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.) X7 N1 D: U+ a
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Conclusion3 T1 g# ?  K: O+ q" v$ ]
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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