市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: Q. ^' S7 D' ~8 @6 _8 W- z) fJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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, W: Z1 ]3 r' \5 ~/ G5 ~Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 B1 l: _1 C0 F  Oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 w: H/ q& a6 z% B4 Y1 |! T- H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) P* P0 C; W. t: M+ p5 h- @adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  \# f# U# c" w( B+ Zsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. M1 h- Y) v6 p6 d5 R+ }) P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  X  J5 Q* k$ o* Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- T: u! i6 o5 k8 O/ |' sadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 c* e: e5 B' P: Kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 L8 U4 s# B5 Oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 J- D  q# _5 O5 Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
. I' r4 i0 y/ s( ? In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 t% F: D# Q. o! O# M2 \. wAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" @3 n6 p# [/ n! F9 W& X The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 c4 z0 H- e8 T( t3 fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 p: b8 ?& D3 G' ySeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 o# w' ?  E+ ]: O* [: K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; a9 F2 e& f; B# s  j# A3 vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 g' h/ }- e$ c' w9 }! @CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ I5 x6 W, l( ?3 S% Cfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& U. G; _( F5 S' I) G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 i- A& U/ U' Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 N! S5 E7 b' B1 q* y. m0 ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, b; H9 N/ p7 J1 a* j- A7 B0 }* Femerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 A$ x2 L; s6 v& c* f% Pthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& a* t+ ?5 G& c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: j+ m! y; g, q0 w( G0 J' Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 s5 b  v! d8 m+ a0 G; a+ `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# K+ v  \! u- o- f' `banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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/ p0 `+ W7 ^! W  GBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* s3 Y5 q3 P! ~2 {4 m% o3 I5 m1 Q% vbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
3 l8 g' w! m1 S8 E3 s" K We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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