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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary; d: h% h( c% d
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 k& w9 }7 C% G; p
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 G3 F5 s) d  k1 L8 N) g
Signature Global Advisors$ `9 k( A" a+ W
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/ ^; w5 U  q! i4 d- L( jBackground remarks
* x, n# y' E; C7 N Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 w3 H* r4 {0 _! z: cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ [/ [0 J! K* |' r Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! \. M9 Y% S: h; d+ d- Padjustments.
) y. i7 |9 q( |9 D! v" W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 P/ c0 E8 G( l* M- B2 G* O3 v. ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ ]2 g' e; x% i' X( K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are( |/ N1 ]; o/ \) @
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ q2 f2 h$ L, d: ]! U; e% L2 T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ Q8 O* m- v5 w( p% ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 M+ }( L; W, q" i% ?9 [0 B9 o Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* H( x5 Y" I. {0 Tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( w2 `: D1 y0 Y, f
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.9 V0 M! _- w( d* \, L7 C
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  Y% v5 x! Z. S$ ^7 @" E+ U
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" V" v) n( e0 P9 ~7 E The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 T$ M) q1 ]% W& z( B/ aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% P! A0 u( E1 g- E" F/ `impose liquidation values.
" ^/ }+ G$ a) Z& x* q+ T- w In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! K% B+ \: o9 z) T; a" f  YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# A4 |% [, r8 h5 Y% s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, s" d- ^+ w2 N# l2 \5 X1 Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets7 Q7 H5 T% [/ M
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 a5 B& m" z% u; [1 _7 |  JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 g; d; w' W4 P; `# J7 o
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
. S/ F( P) t) ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! n- H% ]1 T; G% a: P7 s$ w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% q, s! L$ e' j# d$ j+ gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( u3 j/ L- I+ J. ?& K# Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# m# W# k% F0 q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' P4 ?' Z: Q3 c- ?, Q- w
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# P: T$ u1 x0 u' _0 f$ x1 G- i
finding financing.
" }+ j2 m! \* L. q/ Q* l5 \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& l. X$ C2 [7 J; \4 T; e3 Rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 O! Z) \6 l$ n! U7 l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ h; W" `7 d' S% R
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. n' \, W& K$ U2 g4 C. y- igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 ^4 A6 l: |& ?+ E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 V: Y0 ?/ ?  u# Q; Y# K, k) Y( ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  J. i5 s5 e' S
today.9 b! x3 Z4 j7 U' c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ v$ G% l2 ?8 g6 I$ K8 X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 R0 C& B  r7 R( K, E
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: h& {4 a6 g$ q, Y  y% ?, D
the Greek default." z6 D5 g1 m3 ]6 l' ^& F) N+ w* B3 P
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:" f& Q0 K% b/ A( g6 W* R; \/ X0 z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% {& r: r% x  y! W7 G# ]1 A2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
4 N$ D9 k  \8 X! _* a! c: Ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% b- B3 F/ G( Y8 n) ]- Z, F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 g1 Z. C5 e7 y* S$ ?" E  P( Xbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ z9 F6 b& `5 u  X; m1 s5 Y$ ?4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
' w* Y6 d% w, F% z( r The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 z5 c0 \1 N; u( ]8 ]- M. Abut that was before Italy.
8 Q' l; u8 g: x3 W It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; }* b, w' w0 M" m: S3 d It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# v& {, l' n! G8 F5 e
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# r$ I5 j3 @1 E+ x# ?
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Conclusion
: `' ?0 J( W! T We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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