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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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2 F$ i, C$ \2 a- JMarket Commentary
0 h, Q7 O4 p, B! H: U8 UEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 C0 l+ b8 B2 J1 B, v7 uJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" W; r2 Z; g2 v* gSignature Global Advisors1 H6 K- T- s; Y

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Background remarks0 M% D8 \. N: }( i: l$ W
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# ]* B7 L0 V4 Y( \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% I/ q9 x* T3 v5 c7 l2 T  M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 [6 f1 i6 ?0 e8 E8 c
adjustments.! {) e* t9 r% Q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  F/ ?+ K7 ?  j" [* Rsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.2 k6 w/ q4 h$ z5 z2 c' ^' B
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- x! X! U8 N+ f2 ^9 H) nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ X: K- E) {6 { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these$ M1 c+ l  G2 j. S: M' m
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 t; r3 o7 [  ^0 z5 d$ r
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 V: H: `. S5 q# S- y, h
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ C, e. v0 Z/ D/ s1 i! `  h2 ~" I/ |8 Q Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- t* R7 S( B. Y2 q1 W
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; L+ u1 D, q0 _9 B: x& Y+ s, Vreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ F. S; v) `) v8 `2 N The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ S9 x3 U  b0 l8 A8 q) t  p: e6 Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 j% D; {9 ~/ t0 qimpose liquidation values.* T* d! L- C7 c1 }5 V$ `. s  L& R
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; m9 B, o  |5 P  A; z# S. WAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- y# ]$ i2 ^8 @6 N, c; P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' k+ G8 V9 w0 V; k  `& Q4 }" Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 q# q$ l; O( g- R1 R' _
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A look at credit markets
1 }+ y4 K( ~0 H9 n! V5 y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 @/ l+ ?9 _1 F/ ?6 Q9 I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ I- O- c$ u+ F. Y# H High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! e2 o' v4 W, I2 Q0 |
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- m- l2 b/ V- ]0 u. Cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# v2 `: R0 ^$ K8 c: x! \5 W) Maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' a+ h3 }6 Z4 F9 ]CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. Z: }" ^+ c" J5 T/ M4 W" gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 b" @: ~9 ]3 |" g" s  m% x# c6 w7 n
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- A* ]* V1 }* k. u8 z$ A0 ^; Rfinding financing.
: l5 N2 O* E1 z" b1 n Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 t7 H) e: k. p* u
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 {9 {& C( g6 P- j+ ?2 F Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 o& ]* W( T/ z$ B$ J4 E& u, y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 b0 u" ?) s% Q5 c3 D
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 O* i8 C* H' Abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' X, w$ @% K1 u5 `! y European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 Q6 T" p7 ~/ Y& E# V* Q! E
today.) A$ S) w) F* F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  x( i7 W4 p. c. w" O
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 C: l9 Z# C0 e0 f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 X9 ?6 e: o( K$ b2 N# \! ]6 m
the Greek default.3 E) w' ?" Y) w  B  Y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) T) B8 ~6 ?9 _
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! I' m* C2 R5 t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! g- B' w9 E! C+ Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals./ A1 K. c% \6 u6 r
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# Z; E# r* T6 v! ]: \$ m8 K& `# D. J
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 k6 I; V- K6 D  g" h# _
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
( n% W; E+ }2 h6 l, o The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  J& h! q) A+ g% |! m; l" obut that was before Italy.
$ `5 X' d8 g. P3 `" p It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ u1 W: a, c3 l, \( J7 p: V
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) [/ ]# _  y4 \# iItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion) b: C. y( a( e! v
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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