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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation% i7 P; h1 I/ e# m. m6 `
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 V2 W2 _, i/ ]9 l
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& p) \- B7 ], L1 P: r7 s& A% r4 Qimpose liquidation values., k7 l6 I4 Y7 m) j: y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 b0 C+ k1 I: S. i- m# Q& Q2 gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! H {# y# j# i The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 F6 g# g |% \2 m- R- A- c6 x+ y, zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; F. k6 ]. Q9 \" @/ L
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A look at credit markets! I; B {% F$ K4 |
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: g' M& H8 [/ A: o+ d
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
+ a. r; J, f9 a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 N# g3 v- a" v
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 i- k' p6 ~, u5 ]! t( W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) S: z% T1 M# Q# _, S" }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' `7 A, E! }$ _! cCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: e+ z$ w! O8 |- q& Y( I
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 P8 j% p# f" ^% s5 u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 x- p0 g9 x o% X1 H( hfinding financing.
$ ~1 d1 g: w5 X5 l( C. j Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ o; r2 i. P& ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 o1 i' }+ ?( N# ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ H- F5 V" y7 \7 l/ ]8 Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" }; V6 R' j, v/ w& l" W0 `going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( V7 n2 M$ ~2 V# @( I! _$ u9 Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- w$ f: x' b( |; d7 ?9 a/ i" ]' e
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% F9 B2 w3 w* x+ E+ Xtoday.
5 x8 f: a5 R8 Y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 _- D; g/ ]; P; W& p( ?0 m1 M: Memerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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