 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation* Y" k& |# v6 O; h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! w+ Y, E4 J( g; d4 K$ w/ x4 h e: D
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" W8 z& t o- i |impose liquidation values.8 {4 r( b1 A7 B: u& K
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ x5 d- p8 X0 \9 y' V. s% F7 f T
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 m/ S7 D0 Y8 z1 O7 ]
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( A" A. q( s* X X: O. ` K& Z2 cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 R2 C( u7 ^! [' d5 [
0 K8 J( v" t2 T6 ]& D" f/ ~: Z
A look at credit markets
6 ~: F1 F. C# Z; S# l2 m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in V3 o; N2 }5 ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" D1 x) A4 ]/ l; p* u+ b High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 l- W. M1 B6 ~' c' u$ Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& U% u5 y$ e% n- R) t# d# O( Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 v. G$ L: b+ p" Z( F& waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ K" l* P& e2 zCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ ^% ~( I9 J/ |8 K* u6 wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) N+ }2 H, Y5 Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 l6 r0 G5 X+ ^2 |1 e
finding financing.+ Z5 t9 e# q# T# }7 C
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" X1 q& e8 C9 W+ t3 M/ I, t" \/ swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% S2 d8 J+ a# A Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, N$ c& I: A+ e: H1 h; l3 r0 u
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 \/ Q- M7 ]- @; Tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
v$ |& ~2 f7 W, o Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- O2 y& B( t/ c/ G& Y0 | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' E, }$ I$ ` O g& ^4 A
today.
# N& p1 U& j0 _5 \4 b4 ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 F( l2 z) i7 @4 p0 T! ~3 x H/ Pemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|