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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation# J4 V- a7 @, N+ M) S+ q& b
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* F6 c- K% l# b$ _; jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 f) s4 H( E1 u1 i( Rimpose liquidation values.( U5 H3 s& z8 C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ z3 e- y: a' ^. q5 A( pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% v- D2 I5 g) j S: X; _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& Y) t7 Y: l+ `& T: Y; r
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." n, P2 L) h0 S) Y# W$ E+ ^
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A look at credit markets5 A, B5 U: R; S, f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& |2 \. r6 {. M8 @+ _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.: O0 ]& A d5 w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* i1 B! Y# P# T& Nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ X& K! U' }4 n- F( _- U5 N- ~
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ q4 Z' V$ a: |# t) |) H% h6 X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' \6 p4 d' T# oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! s5 e+ W7 L. P# m
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 d! K9 g9 N) N& _& m Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, A9 s; |* j& A# J6 `
finding financing.; ^4 m# R/ u% H" T
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 ~5 y1 l1 I/ n. C; X# j
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' |! @1 E3 V0 H+ k ]2 C, A! v7 D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- ?% I! b% J2 q. U. H2 J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 B2 e) X; i7 Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 @5 G1 R; S, _
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* L* ]/ L* m+ ]/ L( c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. C+ u( Z `; v) n) L/ Q3 Etoday.4 A3 N) R8 a7 y- @% ?/ r0 f) f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) J0 Z. X+ q: Qemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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