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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation/ e C2 t' l8 U5 R2 g: |* C
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. `9 X$ T" F. w+ S `
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 S- l' w" y @; ~' D( h0 oimpose liquidation values.+ @( l5 \ ~5 A, v% X2 y1 A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' d9 Q# j% q6 bAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ }/ N6 g8 G% r4 A The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 M5 `" s+ w. x9 o9 s- L* w
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 o& r1 `) n% G
, U$ @1 ?4 b5 v; }A look at credit markets; h6 i5 s1 ], [% o
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 }7 d$ O* E" c2 }/ SSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 B \" A. [ w4 b High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! q8 Y+ _0 B/ S* [7 othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 U [: H- v& l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 C* b4 e# k w* t2 A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 L2 h8 e& w/ R, y# I* ?CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. P' i: g# G# P+ ]: n5 @+ f
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& \ Y; _# _: [
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. C8 V; g6 n# M7 E1 t8 i" F! @& t1 ^finding financing.
$ B5 `. ^* ^. ~( W/ A* [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# [+ x: a1 m/ T3 q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." U& h( r# {7 D6 d3 r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 N# i8 X, K/ z9 p
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 |, y3 \2 A) f( o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
% j8 B$ ]% t! J+ G( @1 z! jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; ?# E2 e* d" ~9 H& n+ V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: |( y9 k" @8 F& X dtoday.
) f9 l; Q3 V6 v, v# O& q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 C1 h e) q$ p6 L3 remerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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