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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary. m+ o- b( M; i  ^2 ^* t: F& p
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% }) p/ a  t0 n( D% aJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
+ Z1 q  I' \" ]' JSignature Global Advisors+ {) O$ m, j9 V- Z7 {) ?8 _5 q

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Background remarks) [' g5 Q7 E% g+ F+ p, s1 J1 A8 j
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 X& `# ]$ l3 A4 h' T5 w+ @, Fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., y2 q* T; f3 p: U; _7 w& ]
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: E1 a6 M; P+ V* Q' m8 Q5 @adjustments.. ^  {' i; M# }- A  g3 ^' y# M
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! `. ^6 y' j# l- {9 f) |* q" nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% J1 F( l4 r+ o1 j% J6 x4 y
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 Y- ]2 S; `: s, ?: [, ^
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.3 j9 x; B7 u4 F5 @0 P: N
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. c6 w2 T' `4 ]: ~0 M2 badjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 e3 K2 {  v; x- d9 ?/ j" b Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; e. {" e3 S' h2 D& B8 I5 J
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 A/ q6 c6 n  q& t0 b
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
: ]7 H' }, l  c& f Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: F+ ?: d$ Y+ t' m8 ^
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- S, |- O/ V' G9 m. |/ R The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ G. Y: |! S1 j  Y9 @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 Y9 U& j# Z  M6 x; X1 }impose liquidation values.! \: ]8 k/ k5 {- @) G$ i0 n
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! i" `5 R+ \, N2 Q/ A3 PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 P1 V2 D; f/ @% p
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ Z( ~5 O6 S. V9 F7 Q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
- [4 I2 |9 `# Y# b( J! i& S9 G8 V2 z/ r2 _# r$ J) M8 o  d
A look at credit markets
& ~; R) }' P3 _9 M Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! m, }) c9 }* h& ?& H+ a
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% w' r  L' Z$ o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; x  I! R# c: V1 }# lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 c8 N4 D  K, k- j
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 n2 ?% }, P1 Q/ c* v' d, ]  }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* Q9 L$ n$ T- S( ?CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! h7 x, G6 v5 Q; N7 y0 c0 Dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ ?/ i: b. ~' V8 `: J# {8 d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  Q1 Y4 f1 U! e' {finding financing.7 G. N9 ]9 E8 i+ K0 H$ Z6 }& Q- @3 Q: k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 {8 m; p2 K% d( {: z+ w' |! R' S
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" Q6 k3 a4 O' Z0 A$ b8 e4 q" R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* n( p" i$ ]( e& ~6 G3 M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- `6 n+ h5 y% {" |* I9 K0 T3 Q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' w7 L# `1 n  P( _2 U0 h9 f" d
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' m! U& P6 y. V2 N
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 {  E7 @8 j" }! Ptoday., D: v' q% I, L4 T+ S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  M7 @5 [9 d6 t- L$ Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; V8 Y9 `3 Z/ x% S" \
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# E1 N. c% [& O$ E( X% `6 V$ h* W
the Greek default.
, h- h8 ]" i. s3 ~, W As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, a1 ~$ W9 i0 C2 j" `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. L0 B( `# Z# D! u& A
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign! o1 M, a* @6 F( X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ i. J2 B) y; |; }7 R. _
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( Y' B  E% I5 R- nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* q% U$ o$ C" {( k/ {  V
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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9 A" G0 i" P6 jBeyond Greece
" z$ r- @8 s) A2 D The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 a& A) P4 P9 y) W8 W  }* F$ d/ r* |
but that was before Italy.
( O' F9 t+ ~- b8 A* x$ s; y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ }3 b$ [6 G* y4 i& [ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ X3 n8 P+ f, z: B6 m+ n
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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( D! a; U1 x& U# F" k7 dConclusion
+ C5 k4 M8 n% s! {5 P: R3 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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