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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
' s) C5 O8 g# u/ B8 ?: i7 E8 WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 {9 F2 b4 |; N4 {' a; v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. U; V4 M. ]* C5 B7 f  p
Signature Global Advisors. M/ K6 h1 _  D; c& S
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Background remarks
+ I" ^6 n; J3 M) j( v: W Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, z0 L5 u  `! A' A0 c
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& Z: @( v& X4 o) y+ H/ \0 ]  J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 V. b$ P  l+ H4 ]) i4 }, j" eadjustments.
- H1 ]% ]' }8 r! h, h- {+ v7 S This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% U# c/ k4 w+ h6 I' l2 c( j" L
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ q! V2 s5 B  K8 _) m# x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 m& m: ^0 [( E0 j7 a- N, o5 c4 Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 x6 s. [; ~( v* {7 r! |0 @ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, ^$ \1 U: x- h1 {% q% z1 zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 k# g) b' F$ C5 [1 {
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" l! G7 T2 |' Oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market./ J. K. f& Y; O1 A( _9 h
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" v% ]2 v% Q: d Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have" [- D2 D' W- ^; i+ [
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 l. V' U. y+ c: [ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ f3 J% k1 ~8 c4 g6 [# las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: M: [( ~/ {% B/ g) Pimpose liquidation values./ q, V; P9 Q) U2 Z7 c4 C, q* s# D
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( s" B8 ?( A' z, P: J8 a* e
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& |( {6 N# T5 L" r The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 ?3 f3 v7 y& w3 |2 v" \
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets- d* p$ d4 ^: B  n# |& x; D. m, y1 c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) X7 {( `3 }& ~6 x4 T1 @5 }+ N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 Q( f0 X( c* @: z6 @. _
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* _5 p( M5 Q# p* w' ?; |' N- w
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 `; h* @! M  k0 j* Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; t% G' {+ E/ F/ F4 `2 Baccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* {7 O4 l; b/ F- w+ k0 a. W8 M2 w3 [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 ~& ^- t' y4 ^; l, x' y$ r! N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., P" o0 S% ~, x: o6 ?) }
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( }  Z- T- H( v" q0 e4 {. E
finding financing.
: u7 ^3 f# U2 P2 } Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% t+ b, e& k; x) twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 ~6 x0 f$ Z6 a$ s
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and0 l7 @- \& O( L$ r1 ~! O, ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ {) ?6 ]  W* }- B& T9 J, ]
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ C# G; y$ x) K: i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 D, p  @4 [* h" }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 d5 c5 M3 Q# G: K6 X( T2 Etoday.7 Y- l. r" |( p% w* y9 [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 m1 }, o8 C+ |1 |3 l; Gemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' Y7 L- L0 A0 |( B5 _
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 Q* I; k; p, Fthe Greek default.4 J0 B2 {7 K' C/ ^+ S- M/ [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 X& d: K1 n% l3 @4 {
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) S* p" d; [/ N5 `& \' L2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 {& U8 ^. U' q8 w! a  \; A7 Z/ Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; ?# _1 t  I  U, o2 R
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! A4 A* a3 ^3 f4 m( I
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# S3 h$ S3 \# u+ k) [+ H7 r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& F3 s$ h( g' i8 u3 i  N- u
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Beyond Greece
! m$ p+ _8 A$ X. \* g4 d! b5 ~ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% P5 D9 w  j2 @* p+ t: ibut that was before Italy.
) I( L; F2 d% P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 N$ {2 C. G+ _6 B. I. S It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  ?) X8 a: d) w7 v
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; \" n1 x% g! q& I+ ]& y* [

% Q7 V6 K* A; d$ M% u1 ]Conclusion
2 \( U+ J, J2 m8 i5 ~) s1 ?7 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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