埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2734|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 `. H! w3 j+ X5 Y  q: g) \
* V8 J0 L% k; N2 Q" h) HMarket Commentary5 v7 n1 U( }/ l* |6 T/ u, y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, P0 ^2 Z8 K/ D/ X- i# d) ?, e: g
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: K- o7 s' h& S1 V
Signature Global Advisors
) K1 r2 F( ^7 y# v
7 k% s1 G$ |) _* K5 R+ p: Z. n$ Z4 I/ Z' L5 V7 I: s
Background remarks
9 @1 i3 ^/ i4 x4 ]1 f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ J. {5 W: O4 g1 zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 {# \! I2 d8 |4 n2 b& U6 N
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 M3 U! S; q' w( B
adjustments.
& P2 x' `7 R6 S  y8 G) Q- ^ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ j$ L; C, q) a) J, ~- j! q/ D" ?5 lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." u6 `5 a- D5 [1 ^* ^* \
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  E* q$ i$ q: @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- r1 [4 f/ R2 Y3 h3 B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 E5 t/ L: B% |& @$ n+ [( D$ F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 P0 H3 q7 R) l  u. f
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: h# ^; @* Q" h6 n' |
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 p! {0 h" G" c  \; ?- x% G* v Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 t$ `# z7 G# u- H8 Z1 U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! ^* y9 o5 t( C4 }9 L$ vreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( K6 ^  k, x# P: E
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( S  t5 K( Z6 K+ U, Was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( y0 f% {- Q- Y8 d! C3 c: R' x
impose liquidation values.
8 j0 ?7 \, x0 e* n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* `( e' F, |0 E; o+ e5 O) ^August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; C5 Q  b, {# {' k' e7 }) C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) @$ ~* ]5 a( @( k: }( b$ ]scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ k& B7 z6 z$ }1 Q( q& P

, ]3 t/ K9 q6 fA look at credit markets
0 O1 \2 X9 m) P0 k Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 n2 c# u& [9 CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 u2 U7 O$ @7 |2 E; `1 b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ U3 g: t" ]8 g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 d; N0 l* G( S* C1 g" m8 T
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& B7 K+ Z3 B  J' Y" T# \access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) R+ k! q# ], H% \" h: D8 XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 f' v# }2 |- p9 F  T. `' O! \5 Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" K, U, s, o9 h  l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 k8 L4 _2 n  A8 d. b* d  i5 \* j1 rfinding financing.# R1 T( u9 j: H- @
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* {- h  N1 @% q0 P1 Lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 ~% f7 w- d. O; q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ F, Z% u9 |2 d1 G
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" a- S" A0 }4 mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 z( B. L! N4 Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ t( B! j# |+ l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( w' I- \8 J- x. v
today.
1 f( u' p+ r, Y, ] Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; u  H+ ?; j, ~" ^; p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda3 ]( f0 Z7 P4 |
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ `2 R' |, l$ v! k4 g9 z0 R
the Greek default.* }" t; |' M( J: k4 R
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 A" c5 T7 z# W, S% M) d; x) w/ i/ u
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& }' F1 R/ q5 K- Y' y+ J2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign$ Y) Y6 v( O1 ?& V2 H! ?2 h
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* a0 y9 N/ B6 }# F3 F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 u6 G# @" z+ f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4 G4 {/ n0 A4 Z* G( `4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 ^: L( k: n# U% M7 l8 U% E
5 F& M. A% [$ X- R
Beyond Greece
: x. g% F4 k0 j: A6 ]/ {. A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 v5 d7 W( E$ M& M
but that was before Italy.
  k7 Y) Q) ]1 _- s: k It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. f% k% N9 Y" D( C1 o* W It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: S0 T* K9 G0 D& V3 R0 }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 i8 [1 w6 g) V9 e

% R8 ?' s6 g; Q/ V$ NConclusion. ^# o% Z! a$ P4 ~' ^. {
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-13 11:04 , Processed in 0.144721 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表