 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation/ b) v* t" `' s! B9 I
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- `# w7 L! y4 ]- ^) J0 Qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: t2 L, Q4 E- o& o, O
impose liquidation values.
2 \! a: i- P5 H In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- G+ F z+ N" l2 `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- A' i2 f* V3 y) N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; ~. N, n& E6 V9 d3 q3 xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* H2 a7 T* y8 \+ ^' [, F3 k/ m
1 m5 g' t) [2 a! j9 ~1 E+ t
A look at credit markets6 J2 f0 `2 J1 g0 }7 ~. R
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; b% i g' |( w) U. L% t0 bSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ R6 m7 D/ B, n2 E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" E; o6 v/ [8 [! Y. t- I4 D
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 q- K" O" M: u# r' f zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 D6 N) M7 w- O6 u6 uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' [- {+ [. ?# i, a! E) U
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! _+ s( m O2 J/ lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! c4 R5 n! g( Q+ e6 u' W
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 I- C# ]1 a3 _finding financing.. L% C. f+ y7 C: O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ e: C: Q/ d4 h3 d0 }1 Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( V( d5 b. a% }- h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* I8 u( _1 X( M' e# q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, t! |3 E0 f/ m5 w2 wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) n) } o% D5 J2 C% k- S
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) ~# O1 f( q) T
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& g& Z/ v3 r, t) e: H- d
today.
& H3 ?& X. U4 _& A R6 K Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 L# Q8 ` ^3 w8 m$ d# @
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|