 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation+ [6 C. h* W' F# ^7 M2 H; c5 f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- V/ m7 [2 J1 h* r2 U3 d5 n2 Oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 R0 S- ]0 p7 b; S4 i/ P; w" Jimpose liquidation values.
0 m: L& C$ _8 S& ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 \2 I% a8 P1 s6 H4 M
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 X I4 l, ~+ C' f( \4 s0 u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 u$ P, f& W9 ?: w' i' J* O
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) j9 h& ^$ V5 d5 Y3 I4 `2 M
( b z0 T5 I( ^# Q1 l
A look at credit markets) B. |; ]( a u- G* e& [
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: n& j7 K/ S. J# g( nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 i4 D, i* O2 Z
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* B t% n) \% U2 A
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 a2 c. F+ ^9 K( k, y [- K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% D4 R& [0 _3 @0 y( C, I: \2 ~
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: x v0 u! K$ F3 a9 [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) Q* o: f% ] Z$ e2 v
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 }: I3 V2 g2 A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. w4 R' p4 I9 a- i( vfinding financing.
" V0 l; `6 S% L+ |9 Q ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 w( i+ y8 ?$ o. H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& K+ |# ?( A* {8 m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and0 e3 S5 _' D$ {# p; k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% E) R3 }- \7 z, U o* A1 \1 o# g$ ]
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* {' m4 ]. g0 ]. X1 }% Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; A: }2 g/ |5 [8 o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 A9 ^7 N9 p) Q& H. r5 `5 ?today.. r# i! @+ I5 J
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* w5 U7 }2 i4 T& j4 m
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|