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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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, K8 e* l+ d8 ]6 e+ j( }" Q; KMarket Commentary
; L5 D/ \: X2 e; q9 T" f6 yEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ ?2 z5 F6 ~  cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 n( l  H, Y# f4 L. E, ?: `Signature Global Advisors( S6 _3 f* b5 l$ I

* }3 T% z% S! J3 A- t
) H4 a, Q8 x1 n# BBackground remarks1 P/ p! p) [" }" l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" R6 @7 t* {% e& K; [# P9 Bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, V8 c7 j6 Y, Q' K) t2 _+ e8 m Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( p* \2 K/ b0 S' `
adjustments.
1 t2 |# }: e* D This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* c" }6 K  M* L+ k) S3 s' Z: ~
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 z6 W6 m5 y" o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& g8 X, ~9 a, M  v: g6 Plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 D0 A5 d+ h* p  z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 t% J2 t8 y4 {9 ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- B; y2 ]& V: f$ }
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# C9 n& Q- \6 H& P% b
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: p# y0 O; T) u. A3 d2 T; X# o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
! B: C* H/ ], G. k( Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 p  }2 N& `) @/ h5 J0 R; g- r$ P9 wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, O. d( I1 j* @4 ?4 T
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 |- j/ ^$ p3 G3 A& @1 B
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% c1 J" ^9 |) ]* ~impose liquidation values.
% m' M( ]+ W1 [1 z9 L8 X+ P( ]' u In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  i2 F' R( A! k4 |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 _$ o) r2 m! A0 v2 Q8 g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" G: G4 k  M  o, v" n! r
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ H# o- j, m% V$ n. Z0 ~- A
% b5 H- B$ R' U! G* W+ D/ {, ?
A look at credit markets5 }# N0 C; y7 M8 F8 ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 C4 I6 R: W2 u8 W. o$ r
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% q4 L, Z9 ~" S5 y7 H/ M4 m
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 n. N! r$ L. C4 p* K
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 p; Y5 P: s0 C+ N5 `* L; Q# Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 S8 {  F( u, P1 _
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  {$ [' m7 P4 c6 q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 I- e# ?; Q% P) F' apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield." v6 y9 v6 W, e5 m. x
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ {5 i, g6 S- [8 j5 Z+ ]1 K6 o
finding financing.& W0 w4 e. G0 z) D& S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# A0 w' {) }$ P) h" H' B
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 y! x3 {5 D: ^0 K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 X+ r; m; y  a0 nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 a/ b* B; T9 ]. Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! d2 T9 K! ~& F: @' u# P4 K6 _bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) K  x( D) C* M! } European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  m/ r+ K- b/ s+ _( n9 A- Q7 itoday.
( D0 P- U1 T3 S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 p& }. K8 w0 [7 i  `  x) s- ~emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda& N" L2 M2 N/ u* l3 o4 J$ }
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 w- B: D  [' H$ i( l
the Greek default.& I5 i# g6 T  @2 T0 m3 Q9 v) ~1 ?
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- R8 n2 m. t/ H5 V
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 J5 n. I6 P) P# A5 G* N! |
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: Q* u  X, X5 A# J( ~6 M
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! a. U/ p& [- J, {6 F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& i+ {0 }/ p& F( E2 U3 Y! ?banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 I. v+ h) Z  X" {! d$ @1 X4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! ^2 ~! H9 E/ Q' I. d; a4 Z4 J' e0 q
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Beyond Greece( ^, Z: j6 ^! H5 f  k( D! s, U
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& x2 }! ?; C% a3 Ubut that was before Italy.
( p; G" l* u( F. ^* w* i  P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& H/ r3 K. V; Q: C) b
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ D$ l4 g+ E2 I5 W7 I5 l1 x
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
3 o1 {# [" G  E
! u. c; H) q# B( E& u* `4 ZConclusion
6 y7 B$ K: {/ ~# U$ I- ?' c0 h( ^0 e We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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