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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- {  W! T; y  ]% v% r) U* }

: F- s+ n, h. {& GMarket Commentary/ X9 P( o+ d; ?7 C: J! ~" R$ K( `
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; Q# Z5 Y: G4 S8 j- OJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
# _) q& k6 h& A3 [0 m6 ~Signature Global Advisors
7 h: T; \. l3 }# Y0 \9 T7 b. l( q% a9 B$ z

) ~0 p  a, B* {% o- S/ zBackground remarks
# p4 v+ o- e2 ^! |9 ] Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' X2 `( g2 ~1 ]as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) \1 b* [. ^0 T8 `
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal1 O( n; S1 M$ [& h( Y; K# Y
adjustments.  t! x- ]5 C, V0 i1 r
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 s* _! w* M/ {9 U' osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 ^$ u3 `* l# {# B
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 o: c& B) k# w+ i* i$ m! L; T
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* u' ]0 B  Y( e1 c, \0 o
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: I% Z7 ?" }) P8 B) I# Y! \2 ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 H% I0 K+ m. c6 x
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
, H" u+ v$ N/ I- N5 Lquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& y( b6 j; ?. o& a Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  O  w& N: D0 g/ X  L7 {. o" s0 S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& E, K! ]. R. A5 t7 |: @& y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) O% W0 n  V& b4 Y3 ?8 ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) k, x$ n- ~) c. `
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 J6 v- p0 \2 X$ ^/ W. P% y5 i! Nimpose liquidation values.3 _$ P" {5 ?# X0 ~# m# \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- {. M4 M: A7 aAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' V6 T: v% i7 \  P6 B2 M2 m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 r( m8 ^4 U: f) mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
' _1 z0 F0 g0 I' _. R5 n  T4 p4 b1 J) Q% b' Z
A look at credit markets
, ^" E8 l6 K# Y) j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
. Z+ n2 j7 u; r. p* k' @- p% GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ e  m( c" C' c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% a. J! b7 K8 ^- Vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& S* h% O3 o4 Z3 L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 `2 c$ T( h& l0 x* P% d
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ r' D+ l4 J8 t! m" P/ s- X
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" U: U: \. [- P! M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# Q) Q- e) }6 ^, b/ X
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' U+ ?) C& h) `1 C+ @! Pfinding financing." M) T% M& R- h0 J7 S. T( {: _1 s6 |
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( p9 u4 Q0 u6 J9 D+ S" ^; d5 lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- O) s, M3 z- d3 M4 r. Q' [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ v. f' R% M# M9 P* X0 h' b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* a2 j9 N8 j6 K7 ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( [  y3 k/ ~+ _4 t: k' ]8 Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: @6 E1 q1 d, R% D" g& P* r1 \7 h9 j European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, Z( i% r6 C9 A2 E# |, vtoday.
, |. X5 Q" ]/ A. t6 n1 x Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- B! |7 [% t7 xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ L- g2 C! Q. O4 |) N Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 V6 Y6 M2 u5 H$ ?# W
the Greek default.
" `/ I. Z' g$ Y) D- |$ F4 d As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& n& O& X# R- z1 U% G9 H+ ^
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% |9 k7 P4 W7 s4 }5 S: r; i' A
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ L" u: Y0 b' X1 Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
" |0 J& X5 y" T; d$ B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
. r$ q$ J1 t! n' w+ p* j% d% }banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ Y: [  ^, C# u1 A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! D$ n6 R# m. ^0 h, O) Y& ~) p
) v( C1 \6 P# H: ^1 k, l
Beyond Greece
) o2 Q  m, G& i- y# m' l1 h3 S: g2 z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," {4 p6 ?7 F* r% J: Q& D, W. W
but that was before Italy.. P7 `2 Q, R5 d3 X: @# T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ y( z. M! |1 ~0 e# a; P It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% q7 A7 d- A# ?! y/ G% s
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 L4 ?( ~5 A- T1 b/ D/ n

! Y$ R4 _! E, o9 EConclusion
" v; ~% b% F  [* } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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