 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation2 L" `: f$ p3 W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 Y0 V$ A( k: L. Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 R% S& g/ ? ?2 k3 Nimpose liquidation values.; w1 z( @. z& M! \) N, u9 x) Z3 M
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 ?1 ~1 `; @* u/ F; J2 U1 `# B. tAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 ^3 F+ z F9 t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 m% X. I& ~- a" X) q& X" h5 ]scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; p7 p- m2 C. B5 a ` |: q/ C1 @& @9 Y2 ~# Y% F2 w
A look at credit markets
K$ z; z- K1 K4 @9 Q4 n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- N) d3 j2 V+ t1 B l& eSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
E8 { n; d3 }: P/ I1 R& N6 N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! y" s9 l% q5 E) L$ n
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 w' r- ^' K! X# `( z- F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 A. _$ U2 _, K! q0 ?- W* Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 ^' G- r( V {- U$ v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% S; w& A& C1 x# L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 y% s( ]& |8 q8 J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ d( H! Y! C1 e, i* s
finding financing.# A0 V, I7 P8 E& b5 C
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 b/ O, }; K8 [: d5 y& h$ d, vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., p) D$ e$ `. t: J2 U+ `" p
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 q1 x! l) h4 y% }% bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ h4 r1 G* |! f3 F+ {5 D
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ f0 I5 r" w3 q& Ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, W! u4 m9 e" {7 y9 c. N+ I European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. L: I& Q9 z8 j7 h/ ltoday.0 R% I! N* M( _
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* @: X8 O/ y) q) }' {emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|