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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
4 N4 r2 M( e( Z* `0 kEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. R9 r5 [: c3 m  o7 {+ aJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# g% C1 a; o( C) c
Signature Global Advisors; u* K7 _1 E) i. @7 W3 Y
8 }$ k5 a- g# M- W. f. i
6 \! x3 w- R2 {9 s, ]
Background remarks
: r7 P. t2 }( O8 t4 Y6 b" M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- X' I: [( k  B8 S0 H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  B: P4 d. D9 A( p) ^, t
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  I! S, [7 N3 r1 `# L, b! z3 L1 Hadjustments.! l1 p7 i0 W2 _
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: A; I: t2 S2 W1 N! N; i6 C) M3 K7 x$ y& N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 {, @( i2 V* K' | Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 l% w/ b3 }; v3 z/ d: f6 S4 s9 Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners., K/ f+ H4 w: O4 M. H# q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
' [8 Z! C& m* e6 t. t6 h! Kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ C$ O' j2 [! w- E% I7 g5 O Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* Y9 M2 d& X' _+ \6 fquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 c8 W: x# K8 W Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( `" }( d# O/ k0 d* \& r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( W/ Q4 k* z) w0 i3 |* @- N5 S* i3 J1 ]. Wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, ~6 n5 E5 X# @, b The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  G2 a9 h4 ]& b0 Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, x; O( A3 `9 h, ]0 ^impose liquidation values.5 v) }6 t2 w  a2 c- ]
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 A2 n' Q; l! `0 N# {) Y- TAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" j2 ?4 g2 Z2 b, \- ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ w9 o9 r2 K4 B6 ^
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." x1 ^, O& L0 a! {  t

! ]3 Z( z( {+ @% pA look at credit markets7 j4 w  O' `' D, C1 g. V
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( C; y2 A4 Z! T+ _5 MSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. A; h$ A4 W* r9 Q- m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, f3 k0 R# q7 ?! o, o% Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; k% R5 b& I' \" C1 k1 x  |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( g2 }- e2 B$ K/ `* `: n4 b! p
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) R- S$ c( k# X% dCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 e9 {# U7 c. a. A! l& Y' P. _positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 v2 c! a) G/ d. x- R3 Q2 n, n/ K
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' \6 g- `5 _2 p3 Q* H
finding financing./ q# P3 W6 D# r' n6 }% c) k4 j( G
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ b- |# [5 L4 O9 G" Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 X: I1 U. ?% b- X5 z3 ] Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 O, w/ `5 F* j' [- r; jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. D# a: n3 B; v1 b7 I# T1 x& Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. F" ^& {; b) n2 a& q. Y0 |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; v( t6 V  D5 x: S0 W/ h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  ?1 R  @; s! ~8 f! [3 |8 G4 m' Z" ^
today." {3 h" n, y7 Z$ X' R" v- r& Q
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; l/ u- v; a$ ^* P$ r( G; O
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* }! x: I7 c+ |8 x# |
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 T2 `7 x9 @" _( hthe Greek default.
8 i+ u( H2 C% g As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 L. y, g- l+ Z4 k8 V& l) O1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 P; w& t; R1 P2 b0 B
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" N1 y- E3 r! H$ D4 g* `2 Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
$ m% u, B( T+ I1 H: a2 }, E3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% c( U9 {2 l; h+ t
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& v/ k( N5 v; x9 ^; X3 T  x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 {% C6 c/ R7 F, M

' o" s; b. M4 P* m! r4 _Beyond Greece0 B$ M7 z  F. K
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" C; c3 l' A5 d+ V) X4 qbut that was before Italy.- Y0 |# e6 x0 p; K6 a: ?
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 P3 V) b% J0 R0 B% T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* E, @# v" H% k! |  B9 `
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ ]% A- |: b0 O

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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