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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  Q1 c1 `. n8 W

8 k) \( p! H. W' v" V5 I# RMarket Commentary' i; i( A1 k9 f
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% ~+ n1 j2 o! X8 u) t& [James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 |" r% D% i. ?+ H! K2 C2 o) q: SSignature Global Advisors% ?+ V: N, f+ E6 O5 Y. ?
7 }3 N8 n8 r- a7 k9 a
- E' o  V" [% g8 [
Background remarks
5 E) w6 h2 U& E; ^ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& j  D6 q$ l6 R9 s" r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) F  B' }3 w; x  h3 [ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 L1 A* ]/ B9 R  N/ m7 k6 yadjustments.
' ~" z$ v: u: p This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- ^. U5 J# }  H5 m' ~8 `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  [5 T) \( ^3 e( V/ C
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' x9 o* i; G% o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 R0 ~# D2 [8 m. Q+ w" o: s1 z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% o1 l! w. J. l- b2 F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ w+ ?+ f, G2 b8 U1 ]; S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 J8 H* [' ?! b# s' ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! r- u3 t, d2 y( s0 q# ?
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% c- r. Z+ I/ Y2 U- R Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ @. d: o# X3 D' b7 `1 `reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ S% o; y# v4 G+ ]- y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 \. N( S- H( u9 _' e4 C# J5 gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 r/ K. s- i# N5 Ximpose liquidation values.
& v& S# d: ?% Y# d7 l# X, Y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' e$ o' g$ w+ O( A4 ]  S8 z1 D: XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: H  ^' ]. [3 c  v The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# z+ h: O/ C# M' n& x6 j5 Jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
: ~0 O, }" p7 R8 k' o
# H' V. \" U; R4 E7 b1 ~A look at credit markets' b5 u! J! E9 i4 f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( p7 E7 ^1 R: e+ N7 ^3 v$ `4 WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 m% F- I1 {% Z  h8 g, `+ D
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ _& B1 R+ {0 [; J* O9 ]then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: @: X5 d& L5 M# J9 Y4 l# G$ @$ ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) S& r0 ^, f3 h/ J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 h' H  X+ J  ~- @- z5 `9 \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 s2 n4 `& U7 }; ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# n: Y" J2 S# A, Y& q# B$ c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 Y/ O2 W% t2 a2 G- c3 q
finding financing.
4 \8 `8 k" M5 H2 o6 R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 w* O! a. }! q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 A: ^$ r0 B' O) Q2 `+ k# f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( r( i7 \. }. ?is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 C- P; _! |/ d+ U0 egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 J0 }' |1 z" M
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: [  d8 f+ x/ X( o0 d6 ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain# }0 W# D: H: Q) u) n/ |4 E
today.( X( }; o: F5 }, D2 |( l$ s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 M( u4 C. b+ }  ?! Eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 Y" C1 e2 b0 B! v# @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% S7 _- {& [5 M5 W2 p; g' ~
the Greek default.
. V; J( M! i, [ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- M6 y" h8 _2 ^1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: `, i2 a- P3 B+ i7 ~2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# N% K- S* Q. E1 }5 `7 hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# L2 N4 u( \- Q8 u6 D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 O6 J2 Y( _) I
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years; w4 t2 D7 ?6 f! P* _* ?
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
. D( m% V! U3 T, P4 U. D0 f9 \% C$ H) r# X& n0 ?
Beyond Greece9 T# r8 k/ z$ W1 o2 J  g/ ^4 [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," H* a& r. E& o' x: x( K
but that was before Italy.& F. c* M0 y2 f3 o  U$ X2 w- x
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  @  p+ A8 p, k/ N) N& n/ s9 `* S It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- M, e( A# ]4 O" d* e5 E7 H
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 [3 \: a# Y" ]0 Z/ _

: B! ]5 ?0 E. n( _Conclusion
% j/ K" u4 k) `% | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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