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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& s% h! P1 E, W, y( y/ X

. {* U% N6 r4 O+ q  GMarket Commentary  k: i1 E# [) ?1 B. B8 {& B
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* _( x8 W, B$ ^- Q6 K
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 X' p# K7 g, Z) [- g0 X  _
Signature Global Advisors
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9 D5 F5 k5 V1 [2 Z9 f9 y
: p/ Q, z, V! t7 kBackground remarks
2 h0 y" @7 g6 W1 I: o+ o9 ^# k) n Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; b  g/ D6 W$ r$ [  M
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 K5 s( @5 U% P Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal! K" j0 L/ i) V1 W
adjustments.9 e2 r7 v5 I0 B, [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ Z. t+ y- A0 h- q8 K
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
( K1 z7 E0 d2 I- K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. ^8 O( ~7 O. N7 A, Dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners., S+ M$ }0 {2 m2 K
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) m9 X, B: n+ @- O. cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 O& ~! i3 D3 C0 E* H- \" v3 L8 g
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 K' ?* l8 w6 F& D
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 y1 l1 h$ b1 ^2 e* } Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( c5 j2 Y* @+ _  R* i
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 \2 s- O; ?9 Y( s: H* W& u3 w
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 O0 U6 z5 l6 s( i5 b$ i" d$ D: r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ N/ N# ~# W+ o3 A# has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 M* q/ X: P; D" k# Q/ h
impose liquidation values.: O4 q0 f+ |3 W, R: l( n
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 B# p! K6 \  w" u! ~5 N' yAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* t  d+ h8 }  i7 g. O The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. I& p- r+ d! M. S$ D
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets" Y, N! |% U5 K( R
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& q* D- {- w# P; h, pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) B- j, Z4 j3 }' |! V; s& u# Q2 i2 ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
9 ~# r' D. F+ |* C# zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" f, J6 w" O% ^: H
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 v# }' V% o4 F# l4 Q  u) q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 b( y% \' |5 X  i. \0 _
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ g# A% k  O9 ~3 S5 r" wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; y- r$ O2 r% ~2 s$ A" n6 X8 T2 h Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# c! l: \/ R- }finding financing.
% K) H3 b- b+ a, V" E' z Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 F4 z! U7 u- r* xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ g: y* F. k. W! j  {8 B  e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& ~8 g& X  W' ]( d" T/ a8 Jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* a, B0 w+ ~( ^! x( @
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! x" T9 y3 y# {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 {: Q2 `# I  H. p$ i  C
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  \9 b4 L4 k, |6 |  f0 ]$ P5 ]today.
+ f& |. \/ Q7 U. Z( e3 }) @ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% R/ r3 h% v, E: {, B5 `, G+ D3 @' b! Remerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, E8 r! a% _! \  _, M9 k* i$ w
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 @6 y' F3 L8 q6 u
the Greek default.
  w; i: r& j  i6 q. h As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. N2 ~2 k% Y! b1 p2 c0 j7 K5 j
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: Q  }1 r; s* m' c% g7 n
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: k) C  w. |# C
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 c' {' f* @( p8 N
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 u+ e" H: [) {5 Y
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" k' D5 q/ v7 K# e& N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' v% V' n! `  j; ]: ?; P. C; W
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Beyond Greece7 U4 A- M" a1 c  Y2 i; j# b8 Y8 z2 c) P
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# n8 e: k, v9 V' C
but that was before Italy., G6 c" K: b/ y3 d# b+ f
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ G; [! n% g9 v6 L
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, e! q6 r; Z* A( _  p: n( Y  HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.- r$ w) D: V2 W% g# ?' p7 ^% Z4 G
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Conclusion8 |" v% b$ A8 s
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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