埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3280|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' E% ~1 W$ M3 s5 z! m

9 ?7 C" z- J( n6 U) i! U3 J! tMarket Commentary
9 j. Y. [/ @: PEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( W3 U! v- s1 c& ?; e' CJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 s0 V2 b! }7 s& P, KSignature Global Advisors# t3 X7 S2 T3 H

  ^  H2 l" v$ @1 a3 s* p  j& b! h
Background remarks
0 H* U9 l' I/ Q6 H' r4 o( N Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( p# U& h! l6 t. Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) V+ D0 x9 X1 `3 [/ i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, {, e- O$ y2 b9 s2 Hadjustments.
+ p* X- m' }# O9 r: p. f This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 [$ [9 X, ]; m7 e9 S+ S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( f1 `$ l' I. A8 A0 t- z) d
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 N% {  p9 v. ]0 @
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 F/ \% [3 }1 P" J; [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
9 j, C* O* C! l/ ~) Aadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 A% F9 |! k: c# b$ _; u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" J6 j9 U) W6 ~8 f' }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 Z# O! e4 S3 h9 t Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& j2 e9 @/ o. i Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 Z* Y8 r4 a& x2 \7 S) ?+ L
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) X+ r6 f! C  p% e+ [" _ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 L/ M3 {) [$ Y& w% r: Q. q9 A$ I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 c8 n! W  v. K6 E7 E2 Yimpose liquidation values.
# W  j9 [$ A$ k% f) h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ D: k, W. j4 N( L$ _/ d9 b5 }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 [; I: n% g" y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! [. X8 w. ~# b( ^$ R
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; k5 A7 S$ ^( |: ~
5 [" J- n# ~6 Y  r
A look at credit markets
$ {: i( @. O$ A# o9 s8 | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: B  @3 c3 w8 `. h; A
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.: e8 K  ]1 @( K/ G$ G9 k" I
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& L" o# \  i+ x  k. v/ ?( pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% k# D3 v. A/ C! y; H0 s2 O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& {* ]% j. g& q; P- r$ ~# E' _
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ a1 k: Y* y& Q! R7 A& O; ICCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 C6 ]# G( m9 M5 ~- G3 ^& \# ?positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% ?) k2 X: |0 d& [0 Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 ]8 ~, l, ^2 M  C  z
finding financing., M4 j1 h) ]. E8 `
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 d$ o: w% N; R% F, B7 iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 F/ E7 r4 c- H0 K" Y2 s Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ q; o) m7 b3 n* n5 K4 iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; f* \" C- }9 M8 o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 S* ]9 x4 S' x1 S# Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ o! B* A  p' G3 N- z( _" ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 W3 \5 M' q- N: I
today.
* u/ S  L. [& E1 Q4 B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# u9 `7 a$ P# v9 H, x- Q8 [9 S8 Z% c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' h5 }9 {7 i+ V& q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 ]' ?7 Y+ F7 L$ m6 tthe Greek default.; B: e* v! Z  m( M" W9 O+ f4 S
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:* o  U' F) O4 x# \/ h6 f
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- C" l8 M1 d5 F1 I; O& Q5 t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 f9 q/ d# s  M" Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
" {; D- R. U- y2 J: L3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( ]- `. w& ^! v: f3 y7 B' M3 \" Ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years( M) b1 S! Z0 w6 ~! W2 W
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
( r, a/ `; g  H1 _
+ Q. r" n0 K5 z! fBeyond Greece6 m5 ~8 E- ^" |# @. Z( F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) _# t, ^/ O0 r* b1 Z" A3 f
but that was before Italy.
/ \! e3 C2 H4 I It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 `6 O# S! F6 L7 j+ R6 A7 }
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the+ Q3 }% Z% [. W! K' c7 I
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., M6 X: e1 Q* n$ Z5 }
; g" u& u2 P- D8 ^% H$ U  b
Conclusion
2 S2 B5 Z" Z0 i! M: {# T+ m We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-17 13:38 , Processed in 0.141111 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表