市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

' S5 r# P2 ^3 ~Market Commentary
  {) y- I) Q: i2 TEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; H6 y& W7 p' gJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' u6 T6 X. o, W  ]Signature Global Advisors
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. a5 y( n* \; p4 K' U8 c* E' yBackground remarks
' T" ^! i9 V/ U$ D1 m( K% ~ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& w5 l% A3 o# h. k7 Ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ T' z- X$ P4 I! a4 ]lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( k8 M- K4 T* A  d4 q" N! W; equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# R7 @& U8 X5 }) }2 T5 s Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
# B4 B2 E2 O: @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- b+ T) S( j3 s3 f6 c( Simpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

9 O7 G' Z! Z: _1 ?+ O9 L- F) }A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
! H. y4 i5 F* ?' t7 l; dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, \3 s" B  L; d% Y: j/ R# Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( v. H6 G/ g: Y5 k: h Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! P+ M9 G! v0 o; s6 hfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  k" m- ~# j6 W9 g Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 r  n0 C% N" f8 R' z8 V* b+ Gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 _2 R5 r7 c% \$ n) ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 O) P5 y& s* W: Q) L6 ?! g European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
' s( V0 o7 q9 b7 H, L7 O( C- u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
4 g, d5 U7 @* Q- j5 ^  @emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% |0 e, K" T9 u- {the Greek default.
8 _5 ]! A/ o) [9 {9 n* S& s As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ {/ j) {) T# G) I& _$ m2 Ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# [" Z0 F$ p. k, M3 t. a$ nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
/ B7 R8 }( H& d, P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" d7 t; Q1 Q% ~! M' N  HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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' M, Q# U( V* V( p* YConclusion
! Q5 z6 c1 e& W/ d6 K+ p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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