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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
5 Q; o% c$ U# v: sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& |& B5 `$ S9 ~- p; m% ?
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager6 n  B3 _5 x/ J% K* {/ |8 D
Signature Global Advisors6 x* _( m9 i% E6 A6 P9 c

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Background remarks
! Z  n4 O8 r; N( S3 F$ A5 ?- v2 } Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ K3 C& }) c, ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; ~, T0 {& b# m) J- M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# X+ S3 @1 y0 [0 g3 P& d
adjustments.
. t2 x( i. I$ H, t$ g& N; C9 m This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 n+ C# Q% K6 e- ~9 Z( D
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." \# p8 v( k) i- ]  J( }7 I
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. \! M/ {9 R7 B( |9 p2 Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) l+ O- W# c: | We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  a5 w5 n2 G7 H) Fadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% D. G- ~2 i% w( ?+ }, A
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# S7 A! i1 a5 ?5 }) u) {
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( ]8 {  h8 x' W- C4 m
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# x. c* W: Q9 J9 A; y1 Y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 W, ]7 f" h1 Y4 B
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, p& ?* m( ]# Y' \4 e8 |4 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ c  ~) E# R  J& Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, r! t* f& q  W! p( uimpose liquidation values.* n' |. `- N0 B
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 s7 g' O# x; g* [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
( e% g: t$ k2 G0 [, @) d The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, D+ O. v: f# U! k; q. rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ @* D: N: ~1 V5 H/ L1 m  C
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A look at credit markets
; V) a7 j* v7 G! q# i1 a/ _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 q; Q$ t' G0 ?September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. U' @) [9 d3 P$ _9 m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* _0 n; M& i* e  C( G) fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# p% Y6 B. W, L4 W# ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: g" w6 J7 A+ G# Iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ ?* p# j  Q# i, xCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( c1 h) i/ O, r+ N5 X
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: y# K+ O5 P4 w# T0 P Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 q% F) `* k! K) f0 L. Lfinding financing.& I& A" Z3 C* f6 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ S. J9 H( A+ J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; O1 [; e- J) F9 m+ Y" S
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' Y( }6 e8 X; H. g# j; d) His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. g3 R! m- U% J) w) Agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 S. U. e( W& v0 o1 vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  P" y2 H& p+ o2 n; f6 m7 i
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 q' r% ~8 J4 W  s% l
today.6 V2 j0 m6 Z: Z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. c+ U* l3 `& a" w% Y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 w$ K4 U& q- T4 D
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# s( _) ^1 _$ x3 D" k! C7 {. D
the Greek default.
+ p. K! T4 T- E$ E7 X" [" V2 f As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ |0 Q: O) C) a1 v1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ J  y& U: ^7 ^
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' m( b8 y7 p& [/ a" A  @8 r
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; K6 X5 b* C; O0 l2 m7 U2 M
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( r! s& T- I+ J/ B9 U, V' ^banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 `# x, a7 }, d$ Q  i4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 w/ c, `5 o/ d) S" o5 m

2 [9 V4 [, J/ T8 q! k* T9 ]+ ^Beyond Greece
2 L9 Z: U# ?4 N, @ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
8 o+ @8 T+ u: [+ zbut that was before Italy.2 {, x7 r9 a2 i$ v. `9 C5 r
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- p( k; b" d8 t4 m9 W
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- M6 T: q1 \& ]$ ~* B; i! x
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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$ D0 A& h, n8 @% zConclusion
5 o2 P  |+ {- b8 v; S2 G0 H- W; K We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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