埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3307|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
. o4 w$ i8 t' B8 T* ~5 a+ j% ?- H* {4 T/ D2 x! l
Market Commentary
& W. E1 T: R5 uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ u  h6 }* W$ GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 O) ~' p/ S/ Q/ ~2 }& lSignature Global Advisors
) R& a  U7 @: U9 |4 p
' s6 t0 O; J* Y3 E$ ]* a: _
4 Z) v: i3 V9 V9 z, SBackground remarks
' i" f; z. h. G  ?* s+ z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( o# [" }4 `5 i9 @1 Las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; ~  {, D" j, ?6 W. j' y* q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal/ e6 n! W. r( M! g( `. w" [+ R
adjustments.) k- F  f: X" Z( _# r/ _7 l2 P5 |0 M
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; \, V8 V- d& H* Msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 Z# i/ u. _* I9 P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' M7 I' u# B% ^, M9 y
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* W% \5 I- B) u1 O0 s, X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 m  n0 R% R7 C' L8 @/ P7 \adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) u7 ?+ A$ e8 D& X* H
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. i) Z+ u. y  X1 Yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 E; f$ q: D( f4 ]
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 \) B) [1 M8 i# h8 b. o8 `
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 [+ V5 y2 ]* i; I& l) C8 H& ?1 k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: w+ A- w' L' p( f! } The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% c" U2 f. a, v% e7 b/ Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% t% u- t# y+ ]  V" z# v
impose liquidation values.2 H% a8 b. H7 `- H4 t" k0 [
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: y0 }# C* L/ M( u" e+ V* GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 U9 z1 E5 W4 Y9 e8 F4 D! \3 r The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ ]1 i* Q# f+ M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 V$ B, k/ ^7 g* T! D) J

2 y- U, O2 n5 e3 U! O1 n. bA look at credit markets; v# K- ?* \* ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; a; N3 K, c) Z* n1 Z! PSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 b5 H# q& K) H, L' e3 M2 w/ I
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) J/ H0 X/ \( ^; @$ X* |* _
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% q2 J. n/ {# Q/ u  x$ G: k& O4 bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( d  n: W# i+ @( b9 r& waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' T9 Q# D' B0 F% A
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 \) [- T2 t8 x! ~3 G. l: q+ k5 B# L0 }positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) ?! X* U$ m" i' K/ f* G* }  w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 K# u+ L: u! r% f7 e: qfinding financing.
! u( \9 T/ ~) ^: t Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 w) V* Q9 r- N+ A! Nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ @# D; R, |& ?  I2 B4 @, q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 F0 i9 q! {, S' a9 I
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* M3 s; x5 w6 V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* A' f/ h+ X+ G5 u) T" Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! b' v  I* Y1 r6 k1 k1 y* \ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: ^5 ~4 y7 y% u9 S, C
today.3 _* l' C4 y; {4 i) C
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 g0 u  s& W9 x/ Lemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 S7 M! m- L' v- r9 r9 u& a
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* |) w3 N+ n& I- ]1 S2 h' ]
the Greek default.. ~/ q/ v+ ~* I* q" O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 r( H; k- n7 u8 S% W9 Z: e8 |
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 a  G; k0 r' Z/ k( m7 x$ |" Q
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ _4 O/ `  H6 E+ ]1 T$ o3 ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals., t& Y- e4 m' y( I- z% R2 a
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 Z0 N' D. D# G& |banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years  u1 M0 @5 G0 @8 l9 M. V" P5 b
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
% E" e' Q# {- I) i& O7 I1 r9 _" ]" p, }; N- {7 |( ~* k- d  O
Beyond Greece
" l# M: f4 t. v3 V1 O' E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) L  q- n2 V6 l. A4 L& j6 ^but that was before Italy./ K' ~  |( G2 P( q$ w0 u! J( o
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
6 d/ N& s. E+ K+ H It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, q/ F. C. a! l# K$ H5 ]
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
( L6 u2 j/ }5 W2 |9 g8 p, X5 v$ q4 l
Conclusion
3 c" e2 n! @; S$ A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-20 20:55 , Processed in 0.133288 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表