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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
  O5 i' m+ m. p" a! p6 @/ m/ s. G; v, T/ P* N2 m/ d
Market Commentary# q- m' z3 ~4 E" z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  h, b% }9 W8 j% v) p% M$ Y+ Z* {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 B7 `  W' L# d! S% z8 T
Signature Global Advisors
7 A( I6 A. X5 b9 @
& h; R3 w% M# G1 M
; L3 @6 z) d7 S- ?* W; r) JBackground remarks
' r5 R$ y1 N2 N( n4 v7 U# ^$ i9 C Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! ?7 C5 \7 j: c# I! n/ G8 ^as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 O9 e1 ]& A0 f9 C1 ^7 b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' d6 k" |/ i+ j# q! H- Eadjustments.  g1 w! Z" {( B0 R
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, R% _- |' C* X7 ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  Y2 Y  x1 n6 N, O' k" ~' |$ ? Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 t$ t! U/ K" W- E3 B
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." F  F, O5 x* `+ {6 Q; ^( M; }! L
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ g* M1 L6 `! n4 B
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 q  X# R$ ?% e: l1 h, P Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# }  M/ `% S# n; I8 D1 ~
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 v. p: X( \/ o8 w: f2 G
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 l* {2 ?6 j0 _/ H3 n3 t
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 j) s( ?+ X/ H9 i$ V2 U& S& oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 `" @* t7 y7 x( @) e- G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  A8 F* [" M4 v& s$ ]
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) w  X$ Z0 W$ V: Dimpose liquidation values., a, m: i& M: n# m' |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 }5 ~: ~0 j7 |+ i. x- ~
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 s8 a. _2 U) J8 x- f The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 \$ X+ c# ^) n& lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: E0 y! s% F8 |- _6 Y' U

; _1 e0 g6 u0 }! OA look at credit markets
- m1 C8 @( d% y! U Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 W5 ?; P3 @* x5 z! c! s
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) p9 K  T+ j4 J8 O/ ?. b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 p# ^8 N0 n8 Z( `7 K- J( p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% C8 K! @. _/ d) Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 K" m4 c$ R7 f) v: L3 f* ]. Raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ i, D8 }9 \# p2 L6 H# d/ K4 tCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 G( j( I3 c" o$ Ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 N* `( y( q7 ]: y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. Q; a6 ]! N. N% Q  c/ |* [9 N, w' x
finding financing.; r& Z+ l! p9 \5 A  o/ r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 s' G. [" |* o% I7 S8 {$ {
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 a" W; \+ N& l0 c/ E5 b; e: B# e4 i
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
) ^, z& z) J5 X$ Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. x( h# l  J' N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 b6 Y7 m9 s" B: ~. i" Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% @: m, a8 [: H
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 D9 `/ J0 p3 M4 L' H8 b0 Etoday.; d0 X' d% r) M/ k& ~/ v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% f7 c+ b9 L% [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 x0 u" S, W& A" M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% o, U5 ~7 l5 ]0 i' f# V* X
the Greek default.  {* Q& A2 U& G; G% f0 z& M
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; X& t/ {3 Q. V( r2 j3 w: R7 Y7 K. m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 b, h1 u" b# _2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# n2 D2 V4 R9 E" x, e/ [4 Bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& G% y/ N6 S+ \( v, {4 o3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) W/ E5 X$ u7 y- o9 A9 {$ p& F
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years4 t5 o- B: b$ D" r1 J9 s  Z: i; x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 N, x$ i- O: ]. t3 ^0 \
. H/ |5 _" J* @( ?+ u- X- J
Beyond Greece
4 H: k; u+ @8 N. l$ o# g! H The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* T7 F& X4 J. ]9 ~
but that was before Italy.
( W7 M/ ~/ t& i( o2 \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# p- z* T2 A2 d/ V$ ^0 p
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 s) K0 t3 q$ d3 x1 [( T9 P7 ]Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 f: {# R% s: m. B& N' o1 ~

; f/ P$ x6 x& h+ _Conclusion
8 y0 I! S; e3 s# u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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