埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3998|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% e- X8 y" ]9 X8 E1 F
- s- n+ U1 }- _, r( O. M
Market Commentary+ v* V* j3 k1 N6 H# _9 Y6 V
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 q+ N/ b$ E5 _0 e% x1 r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! G+ g9 p/ P* }$ Q
Signature Global Advisors
2 d0 `2 G5 h9 a3 q8 @9 K
( j' P( q1 R: w8 p( P' d& G( U( X1 D7 s7 t
Background remarks
; ?4 A& d! C0 t" T1 W0 w( x Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" Z9 f- j& K$ {! n9 {as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., f1 {, T1 y# o2 @/ m. Z9 q; |
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal6 P- u  n9 g. i* D  B  a& J
adjustments.
: S! t0 S6 B* j+ s/ ]: F1 I$ _# d4 x This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! J4 Y, d" K9 Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' P% {/ G6 V7 H8 l3 a) {
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are( l. M' w8 w8 m+ ^) o& G' S
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ J: I8 l$ q+ n" A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- r" Y' G$ C0 Z6 sadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# B. W/ {: i' g9 T& v6 z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" B4 Y* G4 Z8 m6 L2 X/ Q" x
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 L6 }! _0 q" l" |2 c) i Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ _% B9 Q0 J, ~, g7 k0 m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 F- F* `/ Y$ j; W
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 c2 u+ y5 n  W. |# U  N9 z: S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! v# Y- n$ m7 d/ y# `$ I; O9 fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* {9 u6 t" `. fimpose liquidation values.
2 L- K1 b9 N3 I6 T7 W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 u- i1 j7 m" s* l
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 s* M1 \: w0 `" ^) M" V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) G/ m! I' Q1 M% `2 M  r' @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; f+ R0 T, e/ c, H* x. ~5 ~9 n# C0 O% V8 b+ o, O$ q, O/ N
A look at credit markets: S( |0 |7 B/ t
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) f- c% k( J. z9 V. D0 Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 M$ N7 R7 c! f- m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& J& ~! q  O8 v
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 e# ^1 h+ `! p3 Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ G: X3 H! H3 l- g# Z& H
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( w9 Z+ M% A  A/ q: Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& }: P* x& u" h7 R8 x4 Z" ?positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 ~/ z6 w  X$ l6 H" P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 R4 q3 v! @7 X( o2 Nfinding financing.
' h- V/ d( i& A, _. D3 i Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 k. {" J6 O% Q) W+ ^$ d# \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! m( }$ V, s5 O/ Z% B! t/ h2 ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" x1 `4 `- ~$ G
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 \9 q1 S3 ?0 \9 C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  Y1 z) B1 V  v. \bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 p1 q" @: p6 v5 x7 A; X European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ W* s" X2 [9 h( o8 I
today.
1 }( }0 ?- g6 t. b& k Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; E2 P5 H/ l- Q0 y' k) G
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda- d  r2 U( D5 ]# N/ U8 ?* l
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ M0 q; w) ^4 M0 `
the Greek default.) K- P6 h4 y2 S- a  ^  {+ R' F  z. F  e
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 C3 _+ b+ ^$ c$ |* J  o  M) x) q8 w( K1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. [5 }* [* }7 ]3 n2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 @7 ^! ?5 N9 b! o& Z- s# @
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.7 X' ]* \. V( ?7 c6 P. K$ k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing, S3 b9 J- \7 C/ a5 {2 s" I
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ w6 B) R/ W3 ^3 {# L1 ]
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( p  F# M& ^3 v2 C# n5 X* U9 ^  V

* t6 e" h( T# i* H% _Beyond Greece1 B8 c+ Z* F6 k
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- I& w( V9 D4 f2 B+ A. Z* @) \
but that was before Italy.7 g/ Y$ ~- j5 T& I" i
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- J% V) u. n) k$ |9 u
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# s( ~  G  L9 j6 b5 z7 [9 H* bItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( V! h& w1 k2 p3 w8 F3 \# f
6 C" D$ l5 i. A$ X" q/ }* c
Conclusion
3 m9 [# A2 s. o  v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
理袁律师事务所
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-9-27 11:07 , Processed in 0.360659 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表