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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation: y9 s, @$ i5 o3 K
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 {7 F4 h8 A# L: ]/ y& ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( p# l2 g c8 ]- w3 yimpose liquidation values.) b$ |/ T9 K/ V9 R' b J, w
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 y* u; D) v8 ~, k- ^$ b) F7 [0 wAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." v, Y5 G) i6 | q4 L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension r x4 D; g7 m7 n
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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0 G& s- y( x! n( _' [* z7 ~& }A look at credit markets: Q( W1 s* _4 Y: q$ a
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 _9 n8 s0 e: y" h
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& \: D4 o8 m, t$ K+ Z; J3 X/ K4 ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
F0 s8 d% ?* y' h o% |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 _5 q: Y7 L" s, ?0 Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 I" e7 |7 n4 I: f5 B, `8 b
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; ~+ g. O7 o* Q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' R2 J: z y2 v+ K6 B ?; j5 a6 B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& K$ N3 _6 N' k0 q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: n. ~# n8 ]3 `9 \. @' L% bfinding financing.6 h* W2 o- a. \# g8 g
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 V8 q; N% T% _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ ~4 Y8 r+ q6 b* a9 ? Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" c _) {: r! Qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* n. V% y4 P' X; Y( n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# o" p6 U d9 X/ m; o0 fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ u+ j) G+ u. P' x1 J- k2 h! _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( H3 P+ I6 Q7 {7 i9 u$ n9 Y) vtoday.
" _4 H( p7 M- R- f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: L0 `" z8 A; _, Q! uemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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