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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary' y7 k- A3 a( }& {5 k1 ?& n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! Y/ M$ D9 {) V& j  o
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 X1 A) x* }$ a2 Z  F0 `Signature Global Advisors
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$ k3 A/ f9 M1 L( v$ oBackground remarks
$ B* }' f' o% n$ R1 I# R  _ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are" m$ I6 ]/ w, K, [
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- x) l" J+ w; ]" z" k) v
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" q3 P, B+ k7 ]adjustments.
2 o+ t; K+ S9 d/ f3 ?' F! \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 J, ~6 L5 d0 A$ z8 e& ]safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. e, J( c. a' ~7 T+ \* Z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' s9 M8 n2 Y5 E4 W" U; Ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; t  d/ T6 h& m% y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" o6 e  m! t2 [# w
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage., d- N9 l) x. H2 C  p8 M
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 j1 @2 Y/ @4 c  Q% h8 hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 b- T  F8 S! S6 B+ u$ y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 m: P) e3 ~6 R9 J5 H" Y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" F, ~5 a3 x3 I$ }  Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% r7 v$ E  s( q3 y2 c5 f The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" ~/ x% v7 G) V3 Q" D/ Y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; m; _! L" h, N
impose liquidation values.
' X4 v/ x7 G! {! U3 @2 L% p7 x In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* C. b5 |+ Q  Z2 K- MAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 P# A. h" w2 ]: i2 a; @ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. r7 T! C; \, |+ N9 yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. s$ q# a  T# bA look at credit markets% N$ h  Y$ U2 C0 J8 g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, I- K4 y1 p/ v9 o  {; \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 t+ O5 R8 p2 x% o& d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; g/ z& h: Q! f' D
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 P( a5 v8 D* C$ ~1 }/ F! c
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 ?4 n# i( Y, @2 l2 uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& c+ b+ g# `# {& S7 r/ w. ^1 x3 Q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 X- F8 D3 G  xpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 t, A1 n1 [7 d  o7 A/ K' I* `7 C* |
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 ^+ Y; T; v# x
finding financing.9 u% U! G; s" c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' H+ Y* K) A* z: Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- U/ G4 k  Q; W/ ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 k8 F. G5 {. \5 d. wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& \& {9 k5 ^5 Ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. p0 ~7 u$ v" R( v* Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ B% Z2 \3 O5 k3 W# ]" v
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 s( U/ f' q- |today.
% m* t, ~: I! j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 Q3 G; L  {$ J7 Q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) e! B. `' P& V% } Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! N' T/ {4 T' j9 r& T) S6 [* p
the Greek default.
, d" l4 z$ j, h As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 n3 V0 F# i$ r$ P+ C) r
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 o0 T+ x; U; Z% r2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. I; N' z# c% `9 a( Fdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.' }) _3 O% P/ ?/ G
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) ], f7 x  @. ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! G, N# R( V) a, ^* W& T
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece7 w% I( E+ i3 H
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 g4 G' h) v' }  ~
but that was before Italy.& A0 o. J; t- c) o( R9 k, q: n# w+ d: n
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% N( y9 G2 H  w9 }+ r. X4 w
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- L: c- b+ O$ \" a! e
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
# u" N+ ~% m! Z2 J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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