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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
+ Z3 f. j* D5 N* x2 hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; S9 f2 B/ }8 e0 }- I* mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  k# d& P- f" {5 [. U) Y% PSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks" u0 a# M, n3 t4 ]; D$ k
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are' C  J- r" `" @* B0 \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) {, T: d5 x9 [; J, x
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& f5 b( {/ {) N0 j
adjustments.
! y3 {, M- b) o3 B0 T! t3 W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) v6 j. K5 ?" A2 o; A/ l8 N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 n* ~) H6 a% Q, n2 m, u. k  d
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 L/ i7 x1 O, N& {" k1 b
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% {2 b/ V- [; p  e( X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 L  Q& _, |1 v+ K4 X& nadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 Q. L1 x) I! @% W
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! u7 i& v& ~& Q# N9 U: @
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 a( ^) c' s7 R4 X4 }2 i
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( U+ W/ h( e: g- n1 ?$ P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ B  o  d# O& I' R# s$ ?- ^4 }9 Vreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; o4 @6 H) i. ~0 P
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 F. k( d: B; Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( ~) K: o% w; k7 z0 W
impose liquidation values.
# v5 B' |% I$ l2 t* y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& E0 \/ X6 C5 x* o9 `& dAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 K1 k4 h, w1 U1 q" W The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) j3 i! h) R* m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! k. L& [  \6 q& d+ M  S# Z, x) V

( ]8 i0 E7 A' \( i8 ZA look at credit markets+ N: T2 ]1 ?9 L& l  ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 }+ Y' i, B! K3 R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ W: Q7 g# i2 M& h% [
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 Z1 H1 Q4 n2 N9 f" U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ s2 ?+ q8 @( sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! F* d" p. g$ ^7 }3 R
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" N" d, v  A" e* A, d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' t6 r0 {+ v, M3 j  Y' V  }5 ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! N* ^. K# E8 l# B- N
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' q2 D2 v3 |1 h, y  u5 V* u
finding financing.! {3 S: ^3 J1 ]5 r1 L+ P+ z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 ?, l1 `; p$ }) C# D9 A
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 u% }. N8 |- K! a% ~/ r Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( ~/ w: ?3 |: i' d
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 q' H- d9 Y0 d! r; ?4 Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 o3 q, i2 f% x, k# i2 m! @/ I, v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. w) t7 Z' p: h8 ]$ C& u
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ K) w) w) }$ Z6 ?$ O+ H$ T% ^. X, ?
today.
% V6 N5 Z2 g: C5 ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 ?  J4 Z: a/ B1 i8 {4 O
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 t2 L' |& [9 p( I# S( f& U Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* W) z4 v/ k& u$ }% cthe Greek default.& R! b+ V5 J0 o/ T8 h* y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ K3 c4 T! M) F# B9 X+ f
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) {7 s% ^! z! y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign! z1 m! ]7 S" ]8 Q7 e; v
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.: E# T' z  h( w. `! B' u9 h9 U
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ Z9 g, C6 `7 F1 Z* V. j  n2 h
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. i! A# \! w% H/ z/ t) _0 h
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) ^3 d7 H% u+ m/ k- `9 C4 c5 z

; T" r/ P- ?9 X; i" {# p( WBeyond Greece
( d5 Y3 f' ]: o6 c The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) N7 J' f3 I8 mbut that was before Italy.# K# J! [( n. y5 n+ F9 z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 u, M5 J3 h7 r$ {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' H1 W+ l! ~$ Q" K* J2 GItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! l/ D5 @  {1 g: T" p) ?
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Conclusion
9 z4 P# P$ V9 y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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