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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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9 d& a9 b) B! I* QMarket Commentary
1 m9 F9 h% x8 p/ d" Z8 AEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' J, c- [3 x4 g
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! R# ~9 j7 d" v" h' lSignature Global Advisors
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1 Q9 f1 O: ?% I* ?  cBackground remarks0 ?8 E' v4 ?& E3 j+ V
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, k& `5 _, G- M: w, x1 has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 b3 I( X7 F- N; ~+ l
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 @6 }6 N1 e( i( G  F1 r- cadjustments.
9 P- X/ R9 E* J, C! _1 D This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- x1 s1 _' j4 l9 ^4 q1 e$ w3 q6 t
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 K* I$ y! }% S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& t2 g' ~* g/ j8 b, Y0 clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( d; o* H  d& S" b We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" ~, p7 ?6 V3 Y- |9 D4 m
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 I- h) g0 Q, v' W
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 O) }7 f( c" @( H# E1 M) squantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) k1 ?2 f. o6 H0 R) ?# \: [6 Z
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# a9 s- T! J# q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! ], ~! E" w2 ]% ^  greduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! A7 k  l# S' y% w+ C. f9 m  p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% {1 j8 {9 I: C& l, n" ?as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! y. a$ ]4 I0 b& Uimpose liquidation values.
( j7 z5 K/ [0 D/ R0 f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 \" q3 a9 f3 z' H3 A5 S$ {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, x4 k, ?3 F+ X; j% Q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ E! n3 _% X. R5 v1 mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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- \2 k: \$ I* [$ h5 [/ kA look at credit markets
" M% U) a1 W" l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% n$ K# F4 [% R4 f
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# H! N) ]6 V/ S8 r
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 R2 O; k% K9 J: Y, H
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
" G, t& c. c& U$ Y- e% _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 v1 [( Y! M' s+ |' J, \8 u8 p3 Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 ], X+ D3 r; N* v7 x4 FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 a5 g# I  R- F' L3 C% a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 I3 r0 Y4 V0 X0 ]$ i" T  E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. u( L# \; D" ~
finding financing.% _$ v: I: ~8 E# T  ?
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, x, }7 x) M# gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 r9 r: H& p. T4 J- F( h
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% r" ~7 m% \7 E5 Z% y' G8 cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 p/ K" E9 g3 b) f% ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 `5 t5 m; c4 P, q8 u/ h
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; c7 h) G) C) ^; Y: v European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! B1 C- V6 U2 z" X
today.) O+ T, ], V" K; G) g
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 `  v9 t6 F# q' U/ H
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 ?9 ?+ z9 v. ?% U& H! o Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( W3 P' V6 j' S; V/ U3 ~8 i, Athe Greek default.
- _4 ^. H8 [4 i2 F0 G2 q0 A6 b As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: h. O9 Z% g6 J" f/ k1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ b/ e: i5 i2 G- r! s# J- H, w6 {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  p$ o9 g, {, i
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ y9 s7 q8 i7 x. j- E5 N- i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' w0 @) R3 J7 C& |6 n4 ]banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ }' v6 V# N! J  u* b4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece$ c8 T# y' `1 |
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- T' y. k5 n# u' M0 w! u
but that was before Italy.' q5 Y+ @' J* W5 l0 ?% j
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  `3 X/ D8 P4 z2 u' w$ @% t It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 R: J$ e$ g# C- F) `7 [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 X  a8 c1 z- Z7 i; r  _

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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