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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
2 E* {7 _" }! `. x: z& G' \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ p/ I2 t4 C  r1 z' G7 J! ]% d$ H& S
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 ]7 G& J0 z3 t( X7 W( |+ |
Signature Global Advisors
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, S4 [8 d5 U5 j5 v) i& _Background remarks9 m3 x4 y6 k" T$ `6 x- G3 T
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" |" i  T, b: n. I3 eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. ~$ E+ b* @3 O1 ]7 x8 j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; W. {0 c4 u# _8 D" A4 D: Q# S3 Zadjustments.
7 `, z7 j* g7 K2 e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: _! t/ F5 Q' {1 [+ `safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% w# I- Z4 X; k0 e1 P( _
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are/ h& S; A3 M% z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( O- s- b* ]" H) u# I
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: F4 c6 y1 ^/ R
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." x, k1 l* x9 E  n7 X0 e
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s0 Q* L* Q  r/ x. S# X7 G$ s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 o% a% r/ I1 J  y+ P' R8 F* v$ z
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 L- S( X$ n( |3 A Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ ^7 r9 @" S6 `5 N6 z- E
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; ~9 E( g9 [: ]) O2 P
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- ]7 J( v2 Z& l: T! I" F2 m+ F
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; Z$ m4 W: o+ G' P# T5 Cimpose liquidation values.
5 L  R+ K) Y7 Y+ Q/ y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; X" u- C/ c0 J* e* I) J; L% CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# C- p$ W8 I4 z. q+ V5 T% U
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 j3 ?. S7 u+ y( d6 T4 z$ sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ G" l8 @, S. k# {, C, Q) C

: z/ q" p8 v  FA look at credit markets
- d6 n9 Q1 v) v9 m2 T Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, T. B1 g) g. J4 L$ k$ e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 B: l; `9 x( y3 }. W  x6 b$ ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 N6 c- l9 J8 }0 R  e& athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ F* M$ I  w) ^7 A" M" Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' r% l4 L- y/ A5 i/ Y: qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 l2 y  U0 L' g( gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" `& p* y* B1 w3 g1 Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 Q2 M/ r  \2 Y1 p  g  c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 m* o* Z5 m3 L/ \finding financing.$ r* X' K8 C" X: t; V
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 r: S- K8 E2 a: F" @5 ]6 X, v1 G
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& \0 z% D! E0 I3 v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 Z! X' L3 F8 b9 f5 Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, G* G3 B" U* _$ E3 T  n& N2 x
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 w& m; A% e0 Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( O; U. F& r7 n! P European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  n# k8 c5 ?. V- Ftoday.
" Z1 m6 Z4 U6 y; b$ R, j  J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% F5 U1 r9 U( g! j! c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 d0 }( n' S& _
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) B5 n) y8 C: q$ d% K- h$ mthe Greek default.
5 ?6 o8 z  v0 `* b( @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) \% [; |4 Q3 Y9 c) k- g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ ?1 }: R  J- p# p! z  C0 m7 e2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# i$ H. _' A+ u% y+ z6 Q" Z' |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ a9 k. T- G. y2 @. e" i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ F/ ]% @- E: V3 kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* ?3 n6 N& W( ~9 A2 F, |4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* \$ d- v9 Z+ b* j8 w  g
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Beyond Greece' g) Q* i, h+ T$ ^# x: T3 r2 F! c
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" j3 z5 Y; K* r, q5 q0 nbut that was before Italy.) x* f# X# ~; T* J  |/ V' Q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 N/ T; j+ f) l  _% x; D It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 H4 ^1 ^+ s5 SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
5 @9 d: H% h' L) L1 Y$ ~, \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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