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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 f, J3 R# c4 m: V. O+ i# w

% i! [; S) U8 e6 H6 f/ L- CMarket Commentary
5 M; [- h. E$ j% W! o, Y2 ?5 mEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 T0 L- c/ s5 W/ z$ h
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" v- ~+ ?* r8 t& C7 H# V9 ^
Signature Global Advisors
$ X. ?% ^" }  v1 b1 t: Z/ x, s7 J  r9 |
! d, A& J3 j  F7 B
Background remarks
3 K6 `- b1 ?) i* X' b Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& Q# ]4 E1 `- Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  F  b1 ]+ ?' s" ]7 M, c0 t3 t
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# [1 Y2 c$ e- x7 O  Cadjustments.  l6 Y4 }: ]3 `* ]: A; g
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 r4 |: ?9 q+ a, ~1 a& z1 Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  A. H4 K! `' r5 K1 u. P/ Y! [
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ q9 I, _0 r& h! c/ }lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* U3 C* P$ x6 ?$ n, i We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( u9 K% e# j% ^. E4 o- m  \; r
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 o* C6 e( W3 x9 S/ u
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, o" J3 `/ _, \& ^5 j( U
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 K4 P# w3 i+ s1 T6 F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' o$ T* f+ O  Y( {
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& V- N5 o2 J* M& a9 y. t8 ~
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  {7 }" O1 K) b
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( m; X* P" Y' a$ X% B
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* K3 o; l' H5 Q0 g# H/ k
impose liquidation values.
. `6 S; U( g4 ~6 W' U In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" V/ o: _0 E- B& ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 k! A: w0 C# L/ x
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ @9 M- U7 S/ [. e9 h- p2 U. S- Jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. P* l4 \4 N0 f/ B  gA look at credit markets3 L+ o' E! L2 ~7 i8 A% U4 {) \/ p
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& q% Q/ t0 K6 x0 ?' X
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 ?) c# `# B& Y; L6 u" l  K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# [. ^/ l* R) I3 V: Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ W+ v1 q- u7 }billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' q: v7 ?  E  f3 ^) gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 ]+ T, n* |4 w' }  s1 m: u1 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' s3 `2 X( N8 B3 L$ q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 {# f! W3 O1 l/ f/ T* {
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 ?  P+ T$ c5 ^3 `7 H+ K  z
finding financing.
8 [; l2 _, a$ E0 |1 U Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% q5 v; A) r4 Y" v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ i  O2 f' L3 r. ]9 o5 y, U3 ?
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ y9 G. Q3 ]$ g3 I3 S# qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. }' N; T! R7 e7 a3 }0 V1 n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 @  y' Q- O& ]# A9 |$ m
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 h$ k3 B  B- J% i3 _" x0 m European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& E6 T2 O4 S" l; n4 n5 ^2 Q% \today.' [  g+ Y8 V( P5 K, R$ Q" }, B9 ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 ]. _+ [' H0 ]4 N* P2 j- w! _emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% K6 g  h* U/ X# w- D
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( w7 R5 ~/ }' e- V7 M# Q$ n1 kthe Greek default.
# c4 x2 S7 C" ~8 G: W) M3 V$ w As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 Y9 |8 {3 k' e( P
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ {+ ]7 \/ I" D3 p  e- q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 m! J: _% R8 F7 j$ d- s  k; z3 m
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( q# U; y$ m& q' J& B) i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing; ~0 O! g+ m5 w' S  ^% M4 D
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ s, A" t& {* d8 Y  F$ G6 C4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., N% k4 E( z, U; `5 K% t, ?

1 ]; u. X1 [5 aBeyond Greece
/ a; B7 p8 q% I# Q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ k# T" `8 n3 v8 c' @* abut that was before Italy.
* t  o3 M  Q1 ~- m8 B3 Z% H* ~ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% U7 u  N; H6 y4 }: x. ^* @ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ H  i2 U- X4 C3 g! l! h+ PItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., Q5 h3 ^" j& s9 Q3 T' Q2 p

8 r9 R# G. P& o" j, G. I8 ^Conclusion- c8 }4 a) }4 }
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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