市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
& W. E1 T: R5 uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ u  h6 }* W$ GJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 O) ~' p/ S/ Q/ ~2 }& lSignature Global Advisors
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4 Z) v: i3 V9 V9 z, SBackground remarks
' i" f; z. h. G  ?* s+ z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( o# [" }4 `5 i9 @1 Las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; ~  {, D" j, ?6 W. j' y* q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; \, V8 V- d& H* Msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 Z# i/ u. _* I9 P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* W% \5 I- B) u1 O0 s, X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 m  n0 R% R7 C' L8 @/ P7 \adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. i) Z+ u. y  X1 Yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
: w+ A- w' L' p( f! } The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% c" U2 f. a, v% e7 b/ Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: y0 }# C* L/ M( u" e+ V* GAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 U9 z1 E5 W4 Y9 e8 F4 D! \3 r The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

2 y- U, O2 n5 e3 U! O1 n. bA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; a; N3 K, c) Z* n1 Z! PSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% q2 J. n/ {# Q/ u  x$ G: k& O4 bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( d  n: W# i+ @( b9 r& waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 \) [- T2 t8 x! ~3 G. l: q+ k5 B# L0 }positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) ?! X* U$ m" i' K/ f* G* }  w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 K# u+ L: u! r% f7 e: qfinding financing.
! u( \9 T/ ~) ^: t Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 w) V* Q9 r- N+ A! Nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* A' f/ h+ X+ G5 u) T" Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! b' v  I* Y1 r6 k1 k1 y* \ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 g0 u  s& W9 x/ Lemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ _4 O/ `  H6 E+ ]1 T$ o3 ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 Z0 N' D. D# G& |banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
" l# M: f4 t. v3 V1 O' E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) L  q- n2 V6 l. A4 L& j6 ^but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
6 d/ N& s. E+ K+ H It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
3 c" e2 n! @; S$ A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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