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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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' z* u8 F0 g# G+ {1 n4 D$ K! O# vMarket Commentary6 e9 D2 b" `! N7 k% H( _
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" @  {5 r5 H0 U1 ~" o- ~. H
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 ^5 k4 A8 Y( A4 i# \Signature Global Advisors+ e1 }# E$ h0 L: D; A4 V) ~

, F/ e" e' p( Q+ C
# f, K0 d( K# M& \Background remarks  R) Z" s" q6 Z: i9 H$ d  ^) w
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 P' l0 U* x7 F' ?& j, Y" I/ @7 y+ P6 Kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. ~% ?- w# P' `& @
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ B# d) u' y! ?1 L% |: i7 Sadjustments.
% V. S0 W0 M4 F) K This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, F: f* H1 X  d( U
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 `3 c6 a+ l9 e2 T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 P+ P* B) q2 U  \lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 O  J3 d# w4 |* [4 o# n4 D
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: d4 l+ k$ U# N7 G/ K1 t0 ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
2 r6 w& Q# H) T/ n3 v) [+ R, S0 s. @ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ N$ R; |6 f; F0 Zquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 [# }/ x  A: `( s0 L" _0 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 L# O* T9 j4 P! L Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* j  g, z, U- ?; |+ q6 H
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ B" g4 M) @0 d7 i+ p) H$ G% y# d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 D& e7 C% t2 T0 das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ O, k! T  z2 R3 @# D0 S+ L
impose liquidation values.
: A2 R# [0 s) Q$ O7 T$ t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( Y* g! L* p$ j$ Q* h8 l- q: o
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  K+ Z, S) o  D# Y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! H5 N# D! M$ |scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ [' N5 p/ D8 V; _: ^4 k, ]2 U

0 K! T. ?, \9 [9 Y/ C: EA look at credit markets
# m: p" Q2 d0 i: f. I; W% H! C Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 T3 c1 _( [6 L# J3 O9 C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 f$ E; v% l' r% z  W' w4 f
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ K0 W; M( F# r; z8 |) ?+ ?! p1 R  ^then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 I& M# K1 d, ?  v5 u' E, _3 V
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have& d, y% M6 w" S, V
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: A/ Z5 w& H5 W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# Y$ Q6 n, K9 X. Lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 q$ r6 p) k" ]# r- O' R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 _% V% a6 H5 |
finding financing.
* N4 I& p, q$ i+ h% E- H Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: i; W# _( g& v) o8 d0 m- x7 \/ `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 E- n: p# B0 c" `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# T* N6 t: C- {& z9 \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- {1 R0 R: W+ R3 x0 a% F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  X2 R) u. W1 z! U0 w8 K
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! c1 {$ {% n1 ^' U& `0 V: J* | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# q7 o1 Y& g. r, K7 z  L/ Ytoday.
6 j4 S$ K  ^1 g- m- p, M; e  G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 t# |% I/ R5 @3 s2 w% R/ N! {0 jemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, D+ \+ U0 A5 @2 y8 c3 S. b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 I$ b1 S2 K" I% Dthe Greek default.
+ X0 t, r! v/ X' e" v As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! [: f* _% s$ j/ q! ^5 N8 g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; u. K6 o, ?9 A3 [! Q% U( u
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: C% ]+ d  s+ K8 t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 {$ F4 K0 e: a  z& g3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
1 ^9 `1 z- c* i! V* p2 V; d  Z* Sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* M& e1 _" x* ?# }4 e4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." `- o: ?8 l/ C

/ C  d& a& d1 D) s( m$ mBeyond Greece
) n- {  i% B7 W3 ^1 O  q0 a9 U The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ O$ u  d6 S3 }+ ~6 [
but that was before Italy.+ L" `9 T& a6 a$ ~
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 o0 C5 ~1 n6 L  u
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 V/ N( u& h9 P% p; I+ f: P2 \+ D
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. u6 S( d8 ~. b) k4 f

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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