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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ j2 f, l9 ^6 V  Z4 p5 e8 r
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Market Commentary
. C! S8 o& u" e$ X5 GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- B4 ?, ^5 U7 Q" a, T; y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  Y7 l  @0 ^% }, ^- H
Signature Global Advisors4 }/ U7 u0 e1 l" [9 [( \

% \: r# b( s! r  E5 B4 e- |2 p  Y% j9 ]; g/ }$ e
Background remarks* ?7 M1 e9 S0 M" L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
: v" s: W3 z- J( W% E/ [" h2 qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! C0 e) @9 l. o8 ~' P, x* i( \" J6 S
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) L6 m$ L0 N+ P9 O3 `" s8 h3 `1 Zadjustments.
: W6 P0 b' o$ ~6 r) g2 l4 A/ V- ]& I This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 V; w% `* [$ r9 |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 k) x5 S" l3 u
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are( \5 O5 S# O2 g7 z+ c* k; K* ]- ^- C
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. ]  @, H1 I( w8 w6 Z  ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 A: G# @$ ?7 x+ l2 }8 {' F5 qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ @' r* l* a. C1 O' z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 h4 n0 i: Y3 B1 nquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 w) {) `8 I* L1 w& S4 f9 S' ~: N
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& ?- o6 G9 p6 `' F
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- I; C/ g  ]  a7 S% F
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, ]& V$ e, Z2 }9 p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 h' X( y% C# \; w, l/ h6 E# qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, P. ^* m9 n/ h% X+ h
impose liquidation values.7 R. y7 k* D5 l& e6 Q; R! I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 H: K1 G$ {0 e/ D: P& z: JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& z; a' Z3 V: U, o The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, }8 W1 J6 G4 \. U( S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! Q- p  c1 I6 t: q
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A look at credit markets( A6 ~$ Y( b+ S9 |# C& M
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 o6 R, F7 e- R$ b
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& x7 w( o+ U1 F8 B0 G& Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; L% i! B# W6 H& z$ u* e' x
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, w$ V7 A" G: x4 {billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: K, N) \2 k! X5 F
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ F6 x. w1 \  v$ o4 b8 i( v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
+ C- D, _+ P1 M5 C- Q* x; {/ zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  |+ \' j. o1 x/ I
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# |" X1 m2 x3 A$ T1 xfinding financing.
- S! P0 T5 d! n5 |6 V5 x+ p Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 f$ I3 e; m# ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 I- Z( M" B$ ^) ?" ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 B9 j. Q1 f& V% I5 x$ Iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 j3 G/ p( q' u# Jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; @8 P2 A( P6 r! r, gbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  K5 r+ B' M# ]0 B1 Z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- v' J/ `( h/ x$ P1 L: F. r% E& s. M
today.
5 a$ o+ e- ?$ g& v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ d# ~7 B. J6 m2 x
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda& j% n; [" q+ X7 b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for6 j0 E/ {5 e: e# `
the Greek default.
0 G3 N; b& i. F4 T- l: f# n8 {' Y, o" J3 ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. Z2 i5 G/ k* C* l0 P2 C# g$ u# O1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  j2 z8 _' L" y3 I  J$ z8 V2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  x+ @% y7 V! B( K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 N  z, z! [% k, T3 O3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% E9 ^1 q( N7 @( t9 ~banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 R2 g9 m% S3 l8 |' N2 r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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" P9 d  S+ E& H. I. Y9 qBeyond Greece
9 n" D2 M+ a. F1 e& A  q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- M3 i  t3 s9 O) `$ m% |but that was before Italy.# }# v7 l) J' v5 _6 \7 K: f
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- _  r0 D, O+ _, X- a- c1 A: @" M It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
, p! N8 \8 P' {( zItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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1 _% N- F7 s6 M; RConclusion
( H! v0 X: G. P6 v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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