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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! d4 q  o/ r0 ~: W) U
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Market Commentary
8 c8 J/ j( I: v( ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 W7 E8 j5 b- [( v3 P# |9 AJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 N0 d9 g3 Y; o; D3 S8 s) x9 y
Signature Global Advisors) f: d% V1 u# V3 y" e' _
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. j0 t5 W5 Z9 I" c6 ^' B, z8 LBackground remarks# E/ h8 s5 O; L5 M1 Z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! i0 H, [. B' H% `as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.$ a; o1 H8 D6 Q0 u- d. m
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* k- z) u. V/ {7 d. B% ]" n. madjustments.8 w  ^- V9 ?3 i# a7 X6 O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 w8 I3 h6 \( s* Ysafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 Z4 F' t; a5 `3 Q. h% X Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' B# m7 [) X# X. f' W- p0 r( rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 ]* p7 \% o% V( R. B9 D We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 t4 D' h" M7 @# Y/ F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! Z9 O$ D/ O+ \9 U7 y6 q% p$ ? Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
, s; W4 p7 h0 `  F* g9 P8 D3 Mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 u, t, J. [! t$ `, P9 \* B/ p4 w
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 `2 Z8 O% Q$ J: P
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: T4 ]; T( i( E1 |( y4 I$ @
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation% z3 y9 q- F: x+ l0 n5 i
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
" q) ?: A' g8 [! U! r4 L$ {as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! x* U( c& x6 k% Y: a
impose liquidation values.7 g, q/ P& }% h! `
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 q, u0 {6 t$ m" t$ N' B  g/ d/ R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 Y7 r  Q8 v; }5 K' {$ } The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ D% ^/ @$ V; F* }( w. y2 k2 Z
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) G( y. b. ]+ }* i3 A3 ^) q

' }( d2 `7 e- m+ u/ ^A look at credit markets
& B9 @( g- l) u1 [" l+ I/ Y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" D# }; @' r' O9 j/ |6 m. Y7 G
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, g) T# Z; v/ ^& `+ c' s High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
  E9 \# X& `" X9 othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 Q; \6 W9 ?  H) R! V! W8 m) G
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; V# B, j) H3 ^& g# w
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ j6 m8 N1 o- F/ g) y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& U, l+ t" x6 i( k) O- E
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# f0 ?( H  o$ _8 p0 d Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ s* q$ _- e' G" G. ]  m  gfinding financing.
3 U8 j, W$ g; @  @, f/ o Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; ~7 g: R5 f2 H7 I% [
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 {5 O6 |# g4 I( G2 J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 i$ y4 \0 [1 f- Q. ]
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 ]4 r* `# J8 }going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) j1 p$ o' j, A3 u* ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( I  R7 o+ m5 Y0 c2 s2 {) U" C European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 J+ e$ g" A6 S& x, }
today.5 n* m# H- i, _1 B- N& F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" Z* G3 L! `. F. a+ F1 w3 `& P/ [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 f* g; c2 p  n* j- d; F
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 C! ~; B7 c0 L( d/ G  [the Greek default.
' H9 i$ d+ W$ g4 t& R As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! a# r' w  Y8 t+ ]+ x: o0 [5 F
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 S# f% Q2 M* J6 |# I
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, ~7 t; i# m& hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# B* _  N( x6 E# U- I# m
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: ]( z; Y" Q5 m# Q- D) C
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: W2 h) I. P  n! y' R
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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  S  O  m4 I1 _7 a3 KBeyond Greece
  _' B/ X) k0 C+ A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' D1 ^7 H8 M$ `5 f. ^: {but that was before Italy.
3 v6 K1 r( R; Q7 j7 h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( ~7 i' t' ?2 g: K: Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 H1 L/ |: T/ k' N2 f) b2 [4 F
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 R( W+ h4 K" s* E. o5 ]7 }! j
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Conclusion' y: r( L# Z7 A0 I
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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