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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ T8 p& h3 d% K" D
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Market Commentary
: O. F) t& J9 j! Z) Y4 j+ pEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( Y6 V! |$ U5 P+ R; k1 B; Y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% h# o- X, x! o- c, m
Signature Global Advisors) X/ w! g. ~: d5 M3 I: u

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- i' f1 T1 u; J5 P6 u: {Background remarks
8 K/ P0 m& _" p' N( a3 n Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ x  Z3 h2 ?9 C0 M! V7 T
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 M. I) g9 Z. d
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  X4 L% Z) j( @adjustments.) w% i! j5 c' R! M. k8 j) x: u( K7 Y! E. R
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 @; z7 a. [1 u6 Q" U' vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 F& E' ~# r2 K; k/ v3 i Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' Q4 U. f7 R+ I5 nlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, X( ?+ ?7 E% j" `+ O We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# y2 \' G- I3 _& H7 F  a6 V0 p6 i' `
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 u$ k; ^( E6 T! Z' X
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
) F, A$ c3 E/ X$ \0 r9 mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: X& r9 }3 z0 L  K7 r& v1 D Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." Z# D$ O! H7 O' l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 Z$ U- G9 x6 q/ k3 v
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. J; X- c+ J! S! }$ z. k
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# y, N: S& N& b  c" U$ \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ Y( H7 z2 o* s! P/ ]impose liquidation values.; f/ Q; \( a; n- S, e; a) w
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  _& _% ~( U6 i$ N7 F
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., m4 @& g8 ?+ X3 t: ]) o( V
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' u  V1 o2 ^# V+ [6 Pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. B3 S4 E: z+ y, KA look at credit markets
" R8 d# t# _9 x& j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! r1 ]3 m' |, s5 m+ D8 a
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# ]% {+ g$ L+ Y9 d
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 V% x% Q$ g9 b$ J8 I8 {3 y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; ^, |; g+ L8 `7 \
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  r) U% n! h( maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* g# @) ~- u, H8 p1 u! DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- D: F6 K0 N! U7 s& ]; e2 {: s: [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 u/ l; j& i: y, ~3 r& o) W Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( _( z5 t, u, l' k/ X
finding financing.4 w) B" c# ?0 ]* b0 n
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 N8 [% b7 ~8 Q3 B  _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: ~8 i- o/ U1 _; R; C( K+ q: w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( o- H( d; O$ F9 b4 _5 j7 E7 P4 v7 `is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 b0 \: J, w+ ]) Z- Y# N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ f$ @: T4 ~2 }% T" Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# F/ F; l# c" E- {3 I European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, W& }7 M- E" p* Rtoday.
/ p/ {" \* c; }4 ?8 X4 q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in! \& I/ c( n1 S3 p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) k1 {4 B* d. J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  Z. R5 g( t9 u$ a9 {the Greek default.: M: j2 s, d7 q/ \. m( X& H/ U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" f8 t8 f1 R" K  \1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* C/ \# T1 {3 c5 k4 G- I% K2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. J3 B- h2 s5 n/ S4 d% O- s3 N% mdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ j2 Q1 |* K5 Z; I
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 X* K' K9 L4 t
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% N0 C1 n& b+ @% u0 ~1 ]
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 g5 t6 {' [# u  Q9 U4 e# T) h  D$ O

# \7 A& Z; E0 b: [% YBeyond Greece. R. O; J- \3 N- C& ], N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# u7 T3 ^2 U" X  zbut that was before Italy.
  L( h! }" L, I% p# w It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ ^! q- W' e+ E" C+ F* e
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 e' g. U" A2 h1 n
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 @& T6 G9 X: d
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Conclusion  _& Z3 k% m& o& p/ ^" C
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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