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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% s4 M& }0 W- d

8 b* R( \# `4 Z7 hMarket Commentary. a5 v7 ~( `. e1 z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 O+ T2 |4 K% }' u
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. _! Y3 k" [% H! U5 s. M+ @Signature Global Advisors' O+ |/ ?6 y* y) Z( s* F0 M

( @# e( C+ ]5 s7 @. ]" W9 ^* Y7 E) \+ D* V( l
Background remarks
% d$ \$ }: C2 Q9 S6 v$ i1 @) B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% D. u& g( _. g* J% B+ d' T$ n0 x0 Z5 \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- A" }2 _0 N5 l  T  i# D) w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 D; z5 B( |* @adjustments.
- B8 \3 ?! k9 O: a9 F/ Z. r9 m- l. Y This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 i* z, J4 U9 h0 xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 [; Z8 J0 ?6 r' D( ^2 K5 Y
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 B- M  M& T! Q/ }' x
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
7 A5 @% ^, }0 \9 ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 W+ ]' z& |0 Sadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
2 ~9 G# q; \% h3 j  I Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
  A+ s9 i& r# E) G, z; A' [! }quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' E0 H" S+ j0 O. b5 s7 A
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* {2 O0 i5 j6 \6 r2 V Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' j, o" u9 v3 _1 A% Qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% }0 c" j, ]1 S( g2 ]% r The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' M* A8 f, p) s* cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 F. o  m+ S1 p( `
impose liquidation values.- y1 P- H5 z: _' o% E. a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* R4 l& @. a# T( K. V" ~August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 Z8 r; `" C* o' a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' d7 @! Y. v+ O) g1 g
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 L. X9 \: y3 h
& r$ ]/ p& Q, S2 J8 v$ H' O! ^3 y
A look at credit markets3 W  y& |9 a! A! i
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 ~- a6 K9 ?! H) bSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ e4 e, M6 J0 ] High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& y' B9 F/ K( ~$ t, Y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- [7 L+ f+ ^! g/ o6 E" h$ W+ Cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: }8 Y6 E# `& _7 Z; P$ E; kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- B' ]/ B+ @2 j& j! E
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( S0 N5 R& x% G2 z: A& L; ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! j7 R3 f. G" r) A/ s8 Q+ e
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 s+ s0 R$ o% a: \- {, _
finding financing.
  z2 O4 e( l8 F& _8 l( z+ m4 `4 F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. N/ S( s7 R2 d/ hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 c: N  P+ [* g Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  o4 p7 T% Y7 e! Mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, v% G3 a2 ?6 ]3 [
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 c! W) g3 P. d8 xbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 D  n* g$ Z7 `" C; Z" e, S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ L5 g5 q# i; |4 v  C. k! @today.4 S9 Y1 x; r4 }0 k4 _& b, T& _8 r2 T  d
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( L2 W- ^: e! h% u% U. p, Zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 P! K5 y# z& H4 \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, c/ Y" M( k6 H+ }2 v
the Greek default.0 m8 U1 o( j- ]
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 r) l! b$ d6 g5 J
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 U# y% \/ g- i6 V; n2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, k6 p  K. F; G/ r/ o( J+ |' Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 Q# S5 X' `1 I6 Q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
6 B5 S: N. p' Z" U+ y% Gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' O8 d- N/ y- B' |6 D( C; q' y/ p4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
0 L$ z+ p3 [( R8 O5 W1 C+ N% [5 V The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 |. R$ G/ E, k, N' Q. f. I
but that was before Italy.
* i# r3 A% b  B: d7 }: C, z' N! h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. R: C5 y1 ?& h" m. g It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, f' b+ V9 y' f9 g
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
% ~6 {6 N3 }: H* d We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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