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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation+ X& N9 N7 P9 f3 S/ Q4 u9 ?( V
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# y: `0 T+ x. k" F# v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' u$ A9 c' |& ?, {3 Q: K
impose liquidation values.
) J4 S* J7 W$ G7 E: w8 n4 i In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
?7 g# U# |1 B" z1 {/ YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ ]$ V. V# x4 R+ l6 b" | The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) Y" i {' p) l4 n/ T8 l
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" Y! h+ J+ {' `$ E, q0 ^! e# ZA look at credit markets( i7 H. r; w: z9 V+ q% K4 i" f4 Q: {' C7 }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 L) I8 @( O" [1 a3 y, t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; ~0 k. Z# G$ s+ a3 e- w8 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 @: }- }0 t. s8 S6 ]then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* n) }% P; y) d6 s
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 [. G/ u" m9 G+ _
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( G- i$ i9 T/ i1 ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* I2 D+ r! O3 E7 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. G+ w& T% J7 K5 n" k% F" e* m
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 H2 }, }% | b
finding financing.3 @1 K1 o5 l* k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 W1 v# E+ {$ g$ u% K
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) k/ w" X! H: _. `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& l% ~* |/ `6 ^0 U. q* A' k3 U
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* ]2 t- f. w1 M/ |6 x1 O9 j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 z1 k5 S# @2 O. Nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 o8 t' q3 ?' d! d5 ?, ^8 c0 o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 ^2 F; r+ ?& t" g/ g# i9 }emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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