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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation- w! i# J- |1 I: O2 U6 I, o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) r4 [( k3 ^0 n$ s1 v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 t& r6 d' {) }% S* _+ `7 @2 C. q, k# r8 {impose liquidation values.4 q0 j7 {# j: |7 o/ J. J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 F( U6 i T9 z: n' O0 ]1 h
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ E+ \# T! ?$ }6 Q( a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' H5 j- B7 B5 {! K- Jscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets. ]. C% B. o4 l" q' A( v
1 T9 ?5 K1 X6 v6 {( T& D) ^A look at credit markets
+ \: a& I! G) h/ S( s4 A: m, m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
{2 {2 t- w9 I) E- {September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ A4 E4 z7 G% s; m: |1 D5 p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ o: R4 e" h. m3 q1 r& ~" d) B
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ B( q2 ?/ P& ^7 W e0 [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* v2 C+ v3 _: caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ V9 a% {; ^/ b7 H2 t" ]" ]5 M+ WCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! T8 H+ ^+ }+ m. [9 [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% Z" r7 N8 m9 `/ ?* d7 d4 A$ K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* x6 ]" w M# O
finding financing.
3 l0 v1 O' E9 k$ M# O Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* g$ s) W8 K3 i$ x. ~2 J% y ]4 t
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! B; E7 i. Q8 {8 m7 O2 `( m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 R G9 m. v1 w& W- t1 f7 u7 ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 y9 h0 i6 c6 N4 U; M# ^9 Y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 J, {! z* l" @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
d5 h9 Y& r2 W' s( D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ ^, ~, R4 d$ f8 w
today./ y4 F2 n) q. |3 @# b: _5 [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* p. C4 L/ z6 }/ B2 V. qemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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