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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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" I1 Q' ~- {- h1 ~- h9 i' m0 TMarket Commentary$ o% m7 }/ W% \$ {8 u, q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer7 i) M3 C; Z; N4 j; R% h
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 p  }& @9 ~( I1 aSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
$ O3 U/ M9 t$ ?- E# M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; |6 z. |0 H3 i" h  o2 u* X) ^& p' las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 @$ J% J% g" \ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ p2 g7 d) ^; N% \adjustments.3 r4 w7 |. O) `5 |& A) T  o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ q) S/ u: M5 v& @  |1 {( \
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 m% z3 R) J, g
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* D$ h3 s" g8 \lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) W! j; ^4 @; J0 `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 e, K7 C' ^2 g: jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& s! d$ u" o2 P; b0 g Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' l! i6 n' g/ Cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market./ Y3 M0 r( v  ^( ~
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" a* W- E+ ]5 T7 w' t3 `& h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
) B0 X& {1 O- g" L- Sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 S, Q1 A8 F" f7 t2 q: n+ y- w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( C1 n* Z0 V" \4 O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 I  b+ a  a5 d8 Himpose liquidation values.3 G6 m9 T# J* c' t, z! J; W4 a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  m" v- a; o! r; b6 V$ H0 RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 ]  M0 P2 }; y( e
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ l, E5 K; L3 b3 y8 r1 oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* t: K: F# Q) \# c7 v4 a  ~9 O6 `; K

# D% g3 [7 N# F7 _. p+ P. w, _A look at credit markets
4 f4 I& a2 T9 X$ Y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ `% K3 h" [3 i( H# B" q1 x" W& sSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 u% Y7 z4 m9 G5 B
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ Y. H- n7 f  w3 B" g$ L" |9 y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ n: _0 X: H4 B
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 R. e1 i6 N" \+ r/ b" Haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: \9 K# }3 Y. z; L7 o& @' XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; w6 R& R+ |& ~# `5 O4 D
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 I6 x4 A: A8 i4 [0 R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 B1 A4 Q& S1 j/ q
finding financing.
, s+ l0 M* O: Y( l1 x  C7 } Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; X) r/ s3 M8 v1 U; ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 C3 }* E$ x3 G* p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( i$ w, X' `$ L  s. ]0 Fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were6 @/ g* [0 E7 q% x
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ w/ [( n- d8 Z6 K; h6 s# n
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, w& j3 [" \) G1 [# x European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 ?1 X3 ~) b6 f7 P$ U6 A$ ^6 L- j, H/ @
today.
2 `2 ~. g1 C& D2 P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 C* ]. e( [; n
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* g2 A9 n3 q, H3 C& f) S1 q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 Y- ~7 ]% A2 ~3 a, D( h
the Greek default.
8 M, k: I4 a* ]" q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ p( H# o: T3 R; K; W$ o
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 e: {0 N% _0 K( \0 v6 |2 m  ]2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ o4 `3 n, N: F, I
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. ?' v5 {9 g4 r( X5 W& f' D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ B1 Z8 `9 B  }% w+ S9 X; [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ s4 C+ ^, ~# x/ r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., G& n3 u7 f, y) D

1 A; p8 N) P" M' Q6 iBeyond Greece
2 x4 b, E# Z0 k' L! S4 W- @- Y: D The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 [( {( J& C% ^) y  E% U5 e- R7 f
but that was before Italy." d  j2 G: ^9 q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( _! B4 O% \8 C) h It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  b- l7 i1 o* q& O8 jItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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/ A" g, R& s) [/ xConclusion
7 p, z  Z1 I& Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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