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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 x0 ?: v& g# J
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Market Commentary
8 Z: s9 Q$ J: D" pEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, W! ?; [0 }+ `) n; E6 A5 yJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  h0 c/ k* j* j, F, m9 ^Signature Global Advisors6 e& ^2 l9 e5 W; W3 \8 L

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Background remarks
: n1 g- g1 w+ ^8 ] Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ u3 C# \& e" g$ F4 Bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' ~3 ], c: c9 ^4 E Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 o7 q2 W# x$ A6 `" D; c; W$ H
adjustments./ e% B; m2 ?  l+ X, {
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( v7 p1 a5 ]7 _safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( X) x' {. v& Z( {( W% o5 B
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* `: l: o' D1 S, ^# k7 @3 llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ _! [- u. w- t& B We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, f$ S& D9 q/ G1 e. e" h; ]9 j
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# x8 d  }8 ?; F. S# r Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 X# ?$ L) x+ j+ h& g( ?quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" u8 }$ l* F" P0 x Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., Z4 `0 H" H8 h/ z
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! {$ P, o, A* f) d' A* a
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% Q9 r1 j5 d, u3 ~ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: g2 g/ e/ b# {* F7 Oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 W% ?; h8 m& G5 x/ {! g- U* ?; |
impose liquidation values.
+ D3 C- P7 G) y. c/ D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 N0 L' H3 y6 j8 T% a! t6 K% {% _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( `, o. x& z% k1 w
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension" Y9 ]6 h/ N% }$ i! K& v8 @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 E8 O$ {% U" z, T3 Z1 R+ Q
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A look at credit markets% D; T! i, e+ n
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! R4 j0 `- ]% _% E/ x% |+ r0 G% ]
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: {6 F1 {4 A* J1 @4 o# c, ~. {& r# H High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 A7 M; n1 n. Y* c# y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: D" [( J& D7 [3 E. t0 P; K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) H, H, P4 |$ r3 F! }access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade' ?; _+ m* ]6 n) M; c  ]: V
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# V) H% X+ {" {- \
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ O& O% y, _3 U$ u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ g6 P4 P+ o) \2 y6 Ofinding financing.
7 v. K, ^2 k+ M, M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 b+ D5 D& @! Z, Q; xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% T" L& ^: D6 e# q/ M( {
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ b( W  a3 w# w5 ]; Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. K- w1 S9 o: Z1 Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 r: B8 t! @- [, Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ Y7 B4 z0 Q  W7 R2 Q3 N$ L0 R
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& |( H, R3 {; m; @, _7 Rtoday.
' m( f, s6 `) a; K6 [ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 ?' k, b& y/ ]: ?) M7 B# b2 M; p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; m5 K; _& S4 ~9 _
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 g3 h$ z; I- g' y. C3 n0 nthe Greek default.
  D& d" P; z+ z' N! Q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& ^  }1 z* m- `) u1 `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* f( G, f5 f$ b2 s0 ?2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% D5 _- g# J; Y1 L9 X7 odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.( u5 T4 u" p% Y/ b
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing, u/ ]" P" D& L" ?' _1 `; E- T" o
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# A1 Q5 M. W. r. N" S" a& \. F& M
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) T; Z3 K7 Q7 m" u: K
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Beyond Greece% c7 A) q. w$ ?2 J* e' U
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 b% x8 t/ |& [- ^+ S
but that was before Italy.
  ~0 [3 Z3 @0 _' `, d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 K  I1 l1 D1 E# d0 N0 _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* i5 E9 g, W& Z1 p( c: IItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
2 H/ I, N4 T. g3 \& ~; J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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