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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- U  G. b7 h9 j9 H! N* D1 U  K4 r; D

/ `" h9 C  x4 G1 Y6 EMarket Commentary
% o/ U' h/ M6 m9 Q; _5 GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# m- O* U; v" l* v- {$ I
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, w7 y% d- S& M; n+ [: r
Signature Global Advisors
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+ E& H7 u$ I( U. a# |; Q; v+ p0 P( [0 O& F* \
Background remarks0 }, c  \$ M8 m
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ m- ]/ m* U6 Q" P7 Q: O
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 c6 x; \" x, t+ r& Q% l; D
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( W+ K+ d$ k0 O! [6 Eadjustments.
* B9 W( I' ^! X" J This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
9 I2 d! ]; j5 V. l2 ?safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
9 r9 v  z5 |% Z% z  U0 k, l Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) v$ c! ~  F/ C) flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) Q! s5 y+ O2 v4 p( L
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( X5 _3 h! ~, N7 n5 dadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.' u  W! Z5 q. G: y* v, j4 Z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 m# F, a  N+ m8 o: m2 [( q* x* Q* _
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market." c" g1 i  a$ X7 l; t' H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 |: r8 ~' M3 h1 _7 ^+ T$ E
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; n' ~: z/ ^. X, hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
. `, n! m( G7 N* N' q! Z7 k; K The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 @: d4 e# c$ h1 t0 T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" I6 I2 n/ Y# o
impose liquidation values.
. j/ w0 e  N& r* z" [+ H8 G6 s+ g8 M, g In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 P1 Q1 X* J5 s2 K! Q6 M6 J
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' e1 b6 i3 C& o. f. A/ a+ X4 j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ }, V6 q" z7 _
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
' E8 i) X% l; J, ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ q, ?; G+ v7 G# j. ^
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* r; ]7 y" |; y7 h0 D* E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 e! m3 {, ^4 `' l, d3 Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# h2 p8 s4 e" {6 f+ Wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 _" z. {; `2 E% saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 x  ~2 C$ }5 Q9 ]3 Y: y9 {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 f# c0 [5 X0 V$ z+ d4 k0 ]( ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., U, @$ P7 D1 \  w
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* C7 f+ d3 z9 d" v" j
finding financing.
" X) m+ R, P9 q# ^7 n  C Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ J5 c# I3 [" B1 s( b2 Jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: L5 Y+ E8 s& I* L! W: N
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 S$ v% D# U* G! kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* p! a& [$ p+ B/ i+ U1 x. ]$ {- K0 L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" f# T/ P; h) d: F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ j7 G$ ~- J" Q" c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 Z5 T. B6 l. Z9 o2 Wtoday.% J8 v( S, D6 ]' x) o
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 c' @% T4 V. i- w% Semerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 D& K  I* m+ x, f% k) `6 u Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for) l0 m  f! E; d! ?
the Greek default.. y. x7 m. D6 T
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
# O$ ^( v" y: P, T7 ]/ R2 x2 O1 y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) C) t. o7 U& u) ?2 n2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 Y/ a2 h0 W1 x; t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% ~# s0 q  c8 x( [& l) Z  _4 [/ a3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ @8 N: f7 s* {
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& ~3 W. G. @* Z. ~' F0 H
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 o* Z3 o2 t/ o# I4 M$ B
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Beyond Greece3 g# p, ]. N* l& V) t
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),( I. _  W2 O( _
but that was before Italy./ f* r  s4 j7 [$ W) Q. v
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; y' r- J7 O$ T( V+ c
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 E( l* `0 h9 t$ B
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., w) `+ Y( T/ ?2 H# U. |$ y

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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