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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。0 y$ I. b; W7 l/ X# Y, x6 Z
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Market Commentary
% N+ }; d$ j+ C: e- D2 k+ zEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ k' Q9 P" }# F4 mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! l) O( W" ^( t6 U/ y$ Z4 t
Signature Global Advisors
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% x6 {) D1 P% }, u9 G; }5 }  P) @9 K5 |' b1 O; |( o
Background remarks
, a' p0 n+ ?$ ~2 T, @) H* |' n Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 @# t% @. Z7 T2 ?: _7 [* m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 c2 {% O! p: ^3 e Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 ~) i( _/ n; o# _3 e+ o
adjustments.  H& A! K) U5 @, R2 \" a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* z, I2 N, i  U* R- |- X* P. b. g
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 Z" @# }4 X5 A5 `# d8 w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 W7 E1 R8 }2 S- {
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: B5 n' B$ [% W8 G8 v
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these! }( o9 T7 H% L% o/ s) j0 I& E1 ]9 p4 s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% |, E. A% Z0 _+ q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( ^" j2 a' k7 |
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
/ c! N$ t3 ^/ {. ?# l+ o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) X% m( C; w! S# t& S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' w1 Z' [3 X, K0 b# sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
( F7 a1 e' o+ b  l7 d. `8 {/ Q  D The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% e: {" |9 T' Z' @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, z# _1 T! E; j* }
impose liquidation values.# _. y- \# {% e/ K- ]  _2 a) p! c
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! C1 j, A$ J% Z0 j4 b  w6 JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% e0 W" H6 ~3 `* |
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ a7 j! a* X/ J% |, h& \2 ^9 v* Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets/ x2 |9 F& G) d+ {; b) [
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( B, T; s# I% b/ ^- m" Z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; ]# Y( _3 ?' w$ F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& {% L) k( ?) \1 L+ d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' d. p: M  C- W' Cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; o+ t: F: c9 K! o" c* _
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 d6 T3 J3 O" \, K1 v: QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 h; C& [$ b  k9 @8 w% A- ^9 T- Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ R4 ^! |/ w3 A7 `  t( \ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ E& m# B% W$ I  b
finding financing.
) Q( E% \* E; s Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, O% m, a0 ^# z/ Owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- p) D! f* Z- U# h$ f# {- ?
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
8 J4 K" x" C- Y: p/ t  U% o9 w0 jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" ~' L, G4 K" V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* b4 q. n& W9 E# Y9 |( f/ ^
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% I/ Q7 v- S2 `. ~) Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ J+ S6 B* @" [9 f  ~4 d
today.8 c! {- S4 w: ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* |: m* p3 S* N2 |3 Oemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. C, n# m0 P1 N; v9 B( c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 }/ w8 q: J( |" \& Qthe Greek default.
9 h7 A. j+ J' M0 ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ t6 P3 `( o# ?7 S* s, E  D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default6 a4 ?4 u) w1 c( _2 z* N
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
  a5 b7 f0 x- m8 ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 h: |: d! P% L; u4 [+ J$ W, I
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! n' `7 _& X, }0 P0 ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' r& p: P+ _- W% @" T/ Y
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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7 M' p" O* m. h4 L6 ]! rBeyond Greece! f0 E- E; r/ ?; l1 F+ o& X; }7 o
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: O( L  ]. m5 O3 f2 x
but that was before Italy.( F3 \  w/ g* M1 J8 j
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS., C+ G# Z9 X9 q  P$ p
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. u0 a5 ?2 j+ P" c" c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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; J- _1 s& E& T: ^) l: a  P! G8 EConclusion
# J7 X. C* Q# W7 R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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