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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 c; X3 G$ e! d! Q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- g6 S+ D( X i4 V3 u mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% z. y7 G8 F8 ~9 x5 wimpose liquidation values.4 l9 Z$ c3 f5 M q6 o
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 X! ^8 b( t. @: [& e* I' @" iAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. y! W6 P% P( x8 n0 T3 p3 w
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* Y$ h- F3 @. U1 U% x& @& `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 J% X: t; ?! s" ?$ ~+ b( W
3 \ h2 T3 v+ m: R0 CA look at credit markets
$ N$ G4 Z/ Y) W( H3 V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) z6 _, a- N5 B( P6 c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 ]( ^, a+ \" h. g$ _+ E. W5 [1 b High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& O9 |: V0 C( Q# y5 B, s+ T J6 Jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- \ f6 c/ {, N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! R8 _; h6 Q( K' daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 [- Z4 Y2 u& ^6 ?9 \5 E
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* E. k% e* {" E" }positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" L$ z2 k$ c% R! W6 k7 d& e1 w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. {" x; e4 V, l7 o. y' K7 Wfinding financing.
' R+ K/ I5 d- W. q9 x Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ i: `7 E {2 }/ e* L0 p3 p4 n
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ x/ l" y, X& q* M K, d Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 \% W; \2 Y. Y" G( vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 O8 t; W7 P/ b+ {2 c3 u
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 c3 W( j' g5 u {& ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' D z$ j8 M: F0 `# S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- |0 L% \9 \) M- h
today.- P" N, t7 a2 M! u1 v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 U; q3 m5 x/ g. m
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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