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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" q  x6 ?$ T2 R& }4 {. b1 p

1 |- X" \/ i; n% i, i* X% ^4 VMarket Commentary/ G8 [, p0 ^4 @$ A# T9 U
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' U) d8 d- h, v; I4 L7 U/ _
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 o1 c/ q3 T  E
Signature Global Advisors$ B+ a3 l) p" ?4 m2 G
9 X$ S6 l$ X8 r7 @% ^  R/ }0 |

+ H7 ?4 B- ~9 ]! S) v  K6 N& i# oBackground remarks) o0 S! n' U3 i4 `8 g/ Y' c
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 e; i1 w' Q5 ^# nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., b' {2 o* h' u
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal1 P& n7 n: Q! Y. |" T
adjustments.
/ o# c9 {* r: q5 L6 g This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, o; f7 D8 g! csafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* m: i$ T& b4 v+ U% V) x Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 {8 n( P6 r' Q+ S1 }% Blessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: w/ w0 v' E2 g
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ {- y  s' p) Z5 V
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% V( I% F1 |/ {$ ^8 J
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: V/ v1 ^: P) ~) R. z6 f& xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
% o0 C& Y( q. q; P+ L3 }0 U, V% L Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* l% _3 C( U1 C1 d
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 k% d9 M# U1 }- H+ g2 S
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* T7 w2 A. L$ w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  w# h3 a/ M  {9 Y, O( {as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ H* \1 X1 v4 U4 }2 w% a/ r0 N
impose liquidation values.
+ b3 }; i7 x; p" z* Q" `3 A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, C+ |! o$ t8 Y7 m+ @' j8 @( H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 |1 z, X9 X3 v0 S6 x6 D
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, e- D/ ^/ ]8 M& w
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., }$ J  R( l, J9 G

, m0 q8 ?- z1 p9 P0 f: L# ^A look at credit markets* H' k1 }8 q. j, X, s$ ?4 W
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; }6 X/ |7 f7 C1 D, nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: O8 \$ l8 i4 P0 ^0 l" i8 g! n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! v3 o$ o2 R5 P0 p, j
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 u" \7 d+ d8 k5 ]+ b
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. \6 Y8 m, R9 A$ oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 O9 _+ c* h5 v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 j8 A* ~' M; \* N; e: S( ]" J  b- G7 A
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 y; |1 C: h: v1 W- L. P Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, }# }1 [6 S% [! R. j. K2 a! \finding financing.: @! p* y; z  H: d. I
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! F; y0 u3 {# n' i; vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 U: X, @& u' d8 V, {( c5 \+ Y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# p+ ?0 S3 H2 ~- C8 gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& u/ }. n* G9 j0 W5 c0 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: |. ~% M8 N8 K6 x' `6 Y9 g! y) Jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 O/ x0 w0 x: T5 _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; r+ _' ]) }0 Y' B; z& ^
today.
$ r$ k7 J; W$ H6 d1 A+ L  f; y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ r7 i5 ?: r( w
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 M0 {% ?! N) {$ W8 V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! \7 d4 H: l$ m% Z2 p+ d+ D) mthe Greek default.
+ q0 P" d6 M: r6 K As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 v; u" b5 \  C, h8 G1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default9 p) p; t" B3 H5 d' e% x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, J. Y( M8 Y5 t0 ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.& ?% Q% H7 y" m  j  ~; t4 X5 W
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, ?# g. n( l0 F, x+ x; F" Y# H; k7 Gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( H) w8 l/ e5 i% ]9 M; s4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 O8 U- \* o  X
- f; Y$ n6 o" Y3 q5 ?: q# V
Beyond Greece
8 @8 r% Y+ j, q" U5 d7 Z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- C8 |1 w' P# a  Ebut that was before Italy.
( @5 R5 v: [- |5 N; @ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.  L0 x; q5 S/ Q' \
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. I' M& U& }7 cItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
* d+ L% v. J1 e. t' ?& U! k( w2 q/ H" p& i' K, Y
Conclusion
* b. g5 D9 p  D+ O, h3 @0 E We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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