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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 t" M$ G$ h6 g5 v2 C: X4 K6 S J
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ y+ t) E" r4 L* h9 d( N
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ F# x/ m. ?/ F1 c2 M3 A
impose liquidation values.: o z3 F( m# v( t7 ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& m2 x/ W& f0 |) @, S3 }, Z6 vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 |! y+ @+ D8 R The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" { i; ]* D( d2 P) xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 a. ^# u/ A: r2 d! U& I g7 R
5 Y7 o- L. q" G' Z+ @+ Z: s: S2 FA look at credit markets2 b8 E5 ^8 d: y& `0 E6 D
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 \; ]( M4 G4 `$ DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! n) Y9 Q L! X0 z$ O/ d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ S! s# i5 e G- z* Cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 p6 ^1 p J! S/ X2 ~+ ^
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. ~' r: p" s2 t" ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" v1 A9 _7 `. fCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. G6 |3 D6 a, S, C# Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ Y6 @6 B2 W8 Z. L" H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, g- Q4 A1 d; u) ~) D9 nfinding financing. C& [6 j( a/ v( ?* o" u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they" x0 o f' H$ ^) m! g* Y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" y* r0 o* w, O3 R5 }8 [% T Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# p( P! m' B; nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 @+ M/ c0 x/ }8 D8 jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
3 z' A9 K$ K0 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 X7 T! M& R' W& F9 U+ l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. @( I2 N2 T) M# i+ \
today.
. S( \0 }- @; U+ l Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: }5 i$ I7 r8 y, l: K4 d4 bemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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