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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# H1 @$ y1 B; j8 \3 K
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Market Commentary
( \$ L3 G& |" X1 r  R2 k2 ?6 u1 aEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 V1 h7 Z4 p& `
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 O* E) y. L# K" T  z6 q  V1 qSignature Global Advisors
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; ^  ]. t: m/ W! N/ U
Background remarks
: s% h% a* x# B) b Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: I3 S- v5 ?& ?- r: C
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" g- L  a  v0 D6 n6 t Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 X9 t* \, M5 @6 ?adjustments.9 _( P! C. N5 k! o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 E5 J( [' C6 ^) f# ^2 f# M( |1 l
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: A( M5 q9 o4 Q8 Q2 X8 V. o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 o: q! i% @' S, M2 l+ qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! [0 l9 _' N6 Y* J4 L! }7 L/ N0 o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: g( ~0 x+ ?: Q5 [$ B
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  f7 D7 T+ A! S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 Y& L5 e( U- g& d% iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ ~4 F" h1 b- K) z$ u- W. r# C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. o( K; U) B$ K1 P- u! @' x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( w, L# j+ Z4 G* p1 greduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, i) M) r# F& U+ P! |/ W3 v5 o3 U
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! \0 s! d' c( G- s; S- u% J' }* d& `" Uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 }3 M7 r6 w, T4 s9 w# N; \/ I
impose liquidation values.3 P# g! w, m8 y( C' l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! B4 s# d: N3 Q; ?* P. C
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 a" |. v% Z# i" R
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. s- p- c' X* ]5 R2 x( d9 yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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6 a- U' B) l# c4 D  K) b6 OA look at credit markets
, v6 M( [0 f4 q) | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' M  {2 ~4 H- R" b0 S- G" @9 I( r/ P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 L2 B' x5 }3 p/ R4 _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 \- _% L7 e9 g9 a) C6 Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 w8 B8 Y- a" k( P- M* Q) xbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# Q1 a1 E% v' f* P/ Maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ K4 e/ D$ g' D3 [+ S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 ?2 j& X/ t: |7 v. Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) U. {( H4 J4 o( [# |4 H8 [" h; r
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. }7 K. y; {, p+ J+ N; X
finding financing.5 P" u: @" t" o
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# z3 {! }8 U) `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; `" a5 A6 U; P  ^) u
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ Q0 W" Y3 B7 p: S+ tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: n- h% A7 R6 P% p  P  sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# f" {( N) H+ g7 mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 }. ~% B: w8 O  }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 }$ Z1 q* z! t2 d) n$ Vtoday.3 }- X. d5 s. [& z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 `( G9 c# a8 yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 ^" I" U$ e/ J1 m$ F% H
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 ^0 r; L' E: f3 l2 `
the Greek default.2 Z4 i. S3 [; U- G" N! U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 \4 ^7 S0 u. g2 I& i8 V* t1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  h4 |3 d) Y$ M; I# D& V1 W4 b
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign" p9 t  Y( J/ T6 A0 x
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.' a3 v' m1 T- z; I0 E+ l3 z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing& a0 P( G8 c) F+ o8 |0 r
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 _0 I: c! C( f1 v# e# D# c5 A4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 ~$ Q! M$ l. e+ P7 C

$ Z3 B* ^( ^5 f/ d. }: S5 D" qBeyond Greece
4 H7 P+ K' @6 o$ b5 V The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" ]* Q4 W0 n6 `7 l) x0 a5 U1 Ybut that was before Italy.- _( i2 J3 |8 ~; ?- Q7 u7 S
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" j; I4 [# |% v6 _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& V0 g1 s" Y7 k4 c3 i
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 p" T2 u5 Y: d1 r+ q- L
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Conclusion
+ g* F: Q7 U1 f We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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