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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- ~3 W2 G9 S4 r: W

. n9 `" {3 ]8 A8 n8 F# YMarket Commentary
* z) i- m; n7 C9 A( iEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% }; X: w+ Z, e9 U6 cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) O) B- c& U" Z- D% b$ C8 `- c
Signature Global Advisors/ p1 t: z- A2 X% d4 K

# Y* }, L8 c2 ?1 P$ G8 J4 M4 ^& H6 W- j5 Y7 e6 M4 V4 V: `
Background remarks  B7 j! p. W: ~) M- a, k
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 h- |( Y/ N0 P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 d# B2 A+ ~9 K( T+ y. L% v Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; s0 `( u- V* c; ?% Madjustments.
5 J& G6 J4 y' }, {( j$ w2 N: Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: }! ~) ~( b$ Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 w* g; s3 G' }) I2 d1 ]# t
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) [. ~. B6 L/ z% E; p5 alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: A9 ?7 I7 G  j3 r& ^( X We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 X8 I/ S1 W$ q$ W# J: W
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 j: W7 m+ X& i. L+ I" L
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: _0 W, N* u3 O! H$ x# n/ B9 T5 Oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 i8 o4 Z, d' V/ k Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 f; K8 A1 v0 f* U% h, d6 B
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 P$ c- K; k7 \) p" T; B
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; R( y) ~2 v8 t# A& q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. B! o! j) {/ u( T  H' i
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' p3 Z: V8 H: Kimpose liquidation values.
* Z6 }* {6 i3 C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, D4 ~8 K) `, J4 P! f7 j1 F& B5 NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ ]& S$ v8 C' z% `! T# K8 g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 F" P8 H& b% E
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
  O8 T( R9 A/ u0 ~- e2 x7 o9 N
: O; F. V! U8 Y; X4 ]7 OA look at credit markets
$ `5 I- K& x' B# {$ B. ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' |% d. h( Q  d5 \; D. p
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 x3 `- y# H* H' D- M% j! |; ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) [. s% S  l' tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. ]3 q% D/ z% C5 a% O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& h% v) f% T/ p4 \/ @4 @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' `( u% W, y+ B% MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 F: `% s2 }1 C0 E. q1 [: U5 f0 \positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ R6 H, R) f5 ^. ?4 _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ n3 |3 \; B; x8 G2 D/ H1 T
finding financing.
( c% f% F  v( R5 o2 w8 G; T) F. ? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 [8 e' y( d) D( E, a/ Twere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. W; B+ e- f  L: d0 v+ m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# B; S' d/ n0 u& V. his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! t( L3 Q  \) ~  Z: T
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; [5 y+ I4 Z4 ]* t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: s' u: b. |4 [: b6 H& f" s6 z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 P" F6 u# o$ }  o4 ^today.5 [9 u% v' {3 L( {! }
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* R) V/ a6 C# |* a1 W+ D5 j: C
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 E. x& M1 z, _3 \2 l
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" c7 [7 h! S- b% S" bthe Greek default.
( {; I- p, ^% F3 A9 m( O9 a* \" g As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  K9 I6 {- c4 G/ P2 Q/ r
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- d; B# A  W/ `3 x# J1 P2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 Z0 J/ ~: S+ R+ A) ?
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ S0 ^  ^5 [2 R; _! k/ k' Z9 V3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ Z+ L6 W% \. J2 b. t$ k, x  Z4 p7 u  `banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: R; C$ k. A+ q, x. r1 l$ ~3 y: T4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ r, Z. K/ H: o) V
. ~% L. O( l# m* ?$ W
Beyond Greece
. P8 u8 m" e4 L3 V5 X( ?. n: n+ } The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# c: t7 l+ \- K
but that was before Italy.
- ~; k- X- N" X, q4 i7 i2 a; _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 m8 F" r: J0 N/ o  X2 Q! i6 B/ Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ W- m0 N6 w* m; r* w8 L, TItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 \3 ~6 r9 f$ F9 r3 M
: [. O, I3 ^/ F6 t1 O- ^' |
Conclusion
# O' w: r3 A. g! X- E4 x We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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