市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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& Q$ h. V/ w! {+ B) }4 G2 EMarket Commentary
) @7 ~/ _& R1 k0 ?- D4 zEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 \* s9 K. i. c0 S9 P- C& B3 m& VSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( a4 z# F- }: t: |  Tadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 I4 N" g8 P% Z( G$ {5 d Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% ^( e  S% f, {6 dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ M- r, u4 Q$ i5 x- { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 w" N$ a* A3 S6 L2 }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
8 i) R. {' l. K* ^# i7 ?. j Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ H, o) J+ b( E" Hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. [* r" N! t5 E$ U- @; F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; ?; Q7 U; e  D$ K4 Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
3 A! }# I. e/ P9 F1 R$ ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( c) |; ]7 Y: \) U( e1 @impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; E! p$ H" v  zAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ V& O/ k' l& o% F4 _* q The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

) L% X3 w$ w) G, I3 M  wA look at credit markets
8 @- u. L8 H( B: V; o8 u! P4 q1 g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! |7 W6 r4 }6 A1 } High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ e1 |. [: z2 u5 g( _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 A* R; a' V0 a# e  z( S, x- Y6 ~positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
. i4 Y- p" G$ x4 w7 I4 o Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; T% B5 F) l8 l$ awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* I; G! I! h% y  E, u4 L Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 D  u; ~0 B1 X, c* I6 r+ w" tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' @0 \! X8 w) N6 W0 M+ vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 f$ p5 \* C! v9 R, i European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 H. r" |( t) g" e" W+ jtoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
( R- J  h9 T$ u7 o. s Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
  P& |" E9 I1 T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& D, J) |! x3 P: S! N: q; _/ ^' b2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
1 N' _' b1 x+ N' ~$ {5 n3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 l$ y& {' |, ^( g4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
; t5 W6 e( r( n: B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; ^9 H( [" O4 S6 S% i5 MItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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