市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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- @) Q( }8 X1 k$ i2 dMarket Commentary
0 g' A% ]9 L- {3 C3 WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# G+ ?* T* O- O7 B; t( g, x; Y8 A& l2 @! @James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! }1 V! S7 D  @1 B" V" |7 c4 a& V3 A& w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% I8 d! A: o* n# Yadjustments.
$ L5 A8 |/ l8 O$ c8 y This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 t3 ^2 W# M! w$ w* N5 z: K4 t Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: X8 q3 ]9 @9 e2 f7 R; J% A1 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' R# a( j5 m. S0 B! ^5 q+ n6 I5 Nquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 D* [: |! j4 q* ?/ S Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" s/ U- I8 Z. V$ c  U3 y Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 S/ f; y$ `! Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ y" x' B2 p1 @/ ~% timpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! V0 O; e: U  b: M0 E% O) Yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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6 e5 ?1 ^) c* L. v  n  AA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* u' ~- k5 g$ Y. v! Q) n: \. jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 s* j0 Y1 B2 K4 }+ C( x" othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* U8 ~, D& O. F; m# Q8 I, W# Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 z$ ?/ r3 }2 h1 ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# n, [) W% g* F" f) j" H0 Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
* A& Y7 B8 c9 N3 b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 U* G# H: j, w8 E9 qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# b, O' e; R4 Q7 b7 a# j, Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
7 X3 Z9 ^2 e  o( D! ]' O, Atoday.
! U2 c+ V9 q; B( W& n$ ` Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
! F* ]8 B8 ]$ S- K0 v. H Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 ]8 t8 Z0 Q3 Z, zthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, Q( y2 r8 }: T, }" M4 n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 N' H' Y4 F5 j) C1 M- p( tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

+ N; Z, ^/ n9 jBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  y3 y7 o$ g9 a% ]  d2 ybut that was before Italy.
. ]% _  t# H' E/ r7 L) ^ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! ^& a+ h! |* f It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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& \* b. \$ V4 M5 E- qConclusion
5 P* `# o2 U9 C9 m$ F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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