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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary1 M  {8 S) A: C: Y) @( Q% P
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( |. h/ `# J( V6 |' ^
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& t- B5 t3 a4 j, \( b8 |% i( p+ @3 `
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks. Y' W$ P# Y$ _% S  Q
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 u6 d5 c! O: l( ^as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 n: }0 v- o% F Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 T$ n1 a4 w% [5 A" fadjustments.
" \; _1 {& j+ d! p/ i8 D! {" t" b- } This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ K+ B* j9 e, G5 O& U, [) Y4 wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* V0 e" }3 q( r! a+ l7 b6 U' N Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 U3 q; W5 ?4 ?0 e8 zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; T  A  ]. s- E5 E" h) V  t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 m" Q( i9 A  s; ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- a% l& Q# U# f6 L( e7 i# ?
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- Q. m; c3 |: ~4 Kquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* {2 j" @2 ^% Z( y" [0 a Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( d, U# ?( V0 a) G' k# V9 p Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. |0 K8 ?9 Y$ [1 Q1 ?reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 T0 k% e- R- i8 r- ^. e The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 Q, Y& u2 L, m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 Z0 B  m8 k! R0 K1 d, h" M# s8 k1 u
impose liquidation values.
) B  w* \: w0 X9 i4 t In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 W% a; u4 u9 J! YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* ~: S) B7 Q6 v7 X& \; G9 c1 i
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 n0 Q5 ~- Q! r
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% @" P( T5 L3 O$ U! y# i1 z- O
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A look at credit markets" w8 k, o& f" T; T- n. D8 g- a8 v# Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: U! p6 t9 j7 q2 ^* K, K, r
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( I% q0 {( N+ L' f  Q& q: `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 i" s1 K! v3 {. ~6 M& k- t$ N
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- U2 k/ X; N4 c. H8 b3 b: {
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 o* [* S( w# a- w, k* E) D; o" `; f( [access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- U% o" w7 ~6 h8 C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ _. j3 Z% s  P. W( U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 ]5 f3 p4 t: r  C8 A
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ @( M# t: D' t% P, P4 }9 I" u
finding financing.3 H. S: p5 _, d: j. E& |, J" M- Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; U: v- ?  {& f# a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% [0 v$ A6 T$ ? Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* H  e3 B; C5 A/ p4 O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) \8 B% S- l) ?, {* Fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& Q% M4 k% R+ h& Y7 G% ?
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- B# m* p  i. K8 F9 O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; H# x1 W9 }0 D3 @+ g
today.
2 S# J7 B* c* K5 h' Z0 X6 K9 ] Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 x* C5 {, }- o! F7 a' aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 o! q. V( G. x5 ^9 j
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for) j! A6 p) C/ R8 g6 r
the Greek default.! s4 M  \4 X% o  p4 m
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: A' v& Y( N7 d, a" m6 H
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
; [; C0 E0 o# y8 \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 |9 }$ y- Q6 b$ Pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( D6 q9 W. d8 i; H# R" S& C3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( G' h# q$ A* F) K5 B- fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* C6 h1 F9 @( `  f- H4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
5 @1 A( H6 Q' A2 w3 A2 ]! U The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# I* M9 J6 U8 j, ]7 f  T
but that was before Italy.
8 G) {# h' ?$ J6 Z/ [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" T& h7 T. @; e% N+ I* [$ S It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* [6 x; t" I7 j1 U6 Q
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
9 Y! o0 L0 s, A3 x- e+ S8 R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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