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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
% W9 E- w, J3 G9 R' }9 W* BEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 I* {9 E/ b# [+ v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 R6 R" D' k8 T  W: E0 m$ a  ySignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks# A' Z- T) `& w- a- i- l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 \& E. b, r4 H( A$ a
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 `" I7 p* `$ B& _# j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ e& y- _9 J: c  t1 Padjustments.
8 V, h6 ^5 S2 U5 W& C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ n8 O1 i* W+ G6 z: J0 L6 Tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% l6 P& m. T4 S5 X' ]
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: j! X# U3 a! I3 V+ S  n, H8 n5 t
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( V" T! x; T* J3 G! Q8 B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 `! K* v' g$ Q  U' z* _adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* y  D2 ?9 |/ }+ D" Q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; O" J5 F+ Z# R) ^5 ^# k' g; q( iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* \4 p- ]) E  u8 [, G
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, z! a6 |1 U2 p9 p* I$ _/ H/ z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' n0 ?' r  W+ f, \* hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' l) I8 O, z% i' y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 E5 C0 b' T5 p0 Q! q+ Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 Q- @1 y1 Q2 a7 Uimpose liquidation values.6 b0 C; O4 }, \, c' j  _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In: g# a7 n/ H* c4 G( n
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 y9 I& `5 h: m& a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- y; U( a1 O3 ~5 x2 {- j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  y  P: X. e: O: n1 s  e$ Y

  }& `3 e  n% Q  y& ~) PA look at credit markets8 O3 t( d& ~2 b$ w! n; e, {
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ _7 x5 G' c7 c8 Z/ sSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) I: r! b0 F9 d) a3 T0 S; J& J High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 Y! t% ~4 ?+ n: M7 V3 j
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; A* y/ r! U& ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! q& b1 b9 P2 l- f1 O5 e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 f) G: s) U& y4 S( W/ I0 y- }0 kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% t: R: Y$ s- x- G. f* c" I( _
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 M4 c- H8 I8 l5 b  n Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
+ l9 P; F+ s( \6 z0 u$ o- |finding financing.1 e8 [1 L' D0 W% T9 z* J
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( M1 _' J  N; @& g1 W4 K
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) D5 |+ g" B; O$ [: O  K3 |) y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ J9 O1 s5 W, mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) ^5 Q# Y$ ?# C0 j/ A9 e3 igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 _. U2 Q" i+ a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." }+ e  j% k8 @1 o3 a9 s$ r7 g
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 z( H1 |9 @- _* X3 g( y* Jtoday.2 r# h  i. O0 T  v6 `0 f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* x5 \. V+ e1 d8 Y  z# }
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
: r' [) N/ n+ m7 L+ \) I& e1 B Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! l3 H* P9 k) c9 o
the Greek default.
$ F% y9 @' K6 c. ^- x0 V/ U As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 L$ w/ V" H6 `7 Z7 `1 |1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, {! c# s  v6 t' W  W  `& m2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* E0 R. t% R9 |- z3 v* O: F
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( |% A" r- Z! q2 |% f8 p. ^: S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& }8 ^6 f' @, }" E% O/ T0 T2 ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& Y0 b3 Q# g) A2 m4 S4 W2 X
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., f  }" N  Z# B; D3 N2 N' C

8 y( O6 B! Z& P( D: C1 |$ ABeyond Greece; S! ~+ f: r8 h
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  t/ T. I; Q1 {* O" L! k  v
but that was before Italy.8 g& ^0 M: A! N3 A" ?
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 l) C6 C+ P) y8 C( z/ h It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 n7 U' {4 g+ I1 A
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further." H' n, x2 z3 m

1 M1 p% r' E( D' x" G. }Conclusion
0 k4 K0 K9 A; S( n0 k We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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