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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。* l9 a% \3 d  m( E$ u

$ l+ L& p& l5 g$ F# h! S% K. tMarket Commentary! u' `! ~- [! l0 E8 n2 n. K7 E
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) A9 @9 w/ |& x1 q, h* Z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' Q0 s& n+ W0 Z
Signature Global Advisors
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9 H& `1 P) ~! l  e8 {
Background remarks8 x" c: i2 K# J* r$ X: O1 |* X
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; y' t! l4 \4 z, k& B5 q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- ]- W0 D- q. \+ l Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal4 H( V, X% m' }/ I" F% V
adjustments.
$ F/ x- ?2 q+ K: j  D3 V This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ z. n& ~! `; X$ h, }: S8 Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ V, M& c0 x0 `5 {' Y* M; K' C Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' \& T9 H9 Z( n, |
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. p& k0 P6 p$ e6 ~& \ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; b- P7 u( E! R$ j5 I, Radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ X" ~+ a/ o3 t# |  [( U
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' ^8 B# X& F( J- l8 q6 S9 w
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.% i7 S6 r, t" d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
( f5 N4 V* Q+ ]. C Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have+ |  ?: M4 ^4 B7 D- n6 X
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) P) _8 \& r) t" H7 {- V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! W, k4 z3 ^4 b9 M# ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 t) ]# C) O2 k2 M+ uimpose liquidation values.; U5 E* X6 s1 ~& f8 \! x, e. j- S
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' D0 R  R. g7 t# Z$ x6 N
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# m8 q" p0 G: c9 P9 Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# {; A- Q, h+ I3 ~* |scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
. {7 S; q- S; h0 ?! n! _% ~. a2 f! b+ T% m# k" c
A look at credit markets
1 e9 ~# n, ^% p/ \) R5 N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  U2 Z: @' @* _: F# v. ~. H: s4 ?! sSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., K* J2 q7 }& c3 z4 u
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; y2 j. r2 B7 {, Dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ ^2 ]3 H- B4 g* tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 {3 _3 n7 O2 _, D$ v/ Y  haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ }+ I; P8 ~7 Y$ @; Z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ e3 T/ K9 n/ \1 `( m0 q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." e' {9 P0 A8 }" g+ F; \
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 s) @5 |5 {$ z6 R  w. d
finding financing.
& R" I5 L9 i9 m" Y: L! k Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 ~) f8 Z: p: k) @. I3 R
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ w" z( D& U, P$ ~& p3 G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! o! N2 K  e; ~; e! B. B
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 u+ @. l1 ?! A# I( j9 G* egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ }. E+ v7 S5 y- i, {: I; r5 bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ J" A3 _# w  f4 G. b; `
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- Y+ ]/ k7 Y: b8 [today.1 i9 D6 D+ S5 K# a/ [& l
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ {- T( T- m$ F8 x" E
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& u6 y/ @# T: _, R: t) h8 v Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
; c- d& Q2 @2 U6 e# @- ]" Bthe Greek default.9 V' d2 T9 H0 Q. f; f  H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 j) @6 N, \% H# E' U/ R% J
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 R8 m2 t" Q: k2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ e/ N0 S0 X6 }$ p8 B* n* e, b3 |
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( ~5 C) Y6 O# |
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  `1 E" h' }- z8 ]$ b, E
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years* P* j! d' R7 P2 F3 o- C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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4 A: ?: D) E1 m* H/ ~, GBeyond Greece6 j# L( |- T4 J9 c: n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! t* S" P' c3 Q" C# _8 Vbut that was before Italy.
& j# b4 h! w0 x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! S* I; |" v$ u& r: P It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. O9 I) S' N2 m0 o2 y$ S$ M6 ]- VItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& D% Y# J5 ?! x/ F, s

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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