 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
- Q, Y! _* e) V/ y8 ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 {4 e* k- R8 u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( o( X7 D" a) i4 ?6 limpose liquidation values.
- N6 @4 v, j$ h' V. }1 [% K In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. |' y3 x* W! G9 l1 S) T4 E9 @" VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. q% |+ i# n# _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 v, o* c9 Q9 Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 @) d3 O7 J* E6 ]
W! G! c$ v k* S
A look at credit markets
/ c7 m( v; {" C9 ?1 i } Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( K" D, |& ?3 X! g1 |0 }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 Z4 z( F% Q4 d1 [
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 S6 ?0 A" w' C( |7 o# pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 d- U* d8 p1 T+ \
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 V! |6 D* Z$ B8 E
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 e- b# S. E4 G5 n7 r& }CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& |6 ]" I. n, K" Q, s8 ~$ s
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 {! s# x# J; R1 B# }
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 F8 H' C# a- h8 c! ?finding financing.1 t, S% S' f, d1 x. L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 N/ b" `9 \3 U" dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 C- x$ U% g. M& R/ E$ e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% e* z9 f4 x/ ~: z! mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& [" S1 `/ r, i" z' }0 Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 k! n1 [: P+ N3 @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- }5 h% v+ X) R/ O
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 M1 Q6 t& e/ D5 ?: H) Q) Ktoday.6 Z+ h( t2 [. O* Z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 ^( Q9 F+ y7 m x" D' P/ e3 C
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|