市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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) T8 Z# g& `) R; mMarket Commentary
) F6 R' o$ D% b  L* E) G& U+ M: ^Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ q$ V  r, {+ K  KJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  L" ~/ }" C) `1 j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
) n, A- E3 y& {8 A( n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( u/ G% K, L% Qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# m6 k2 U( L9 C Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 A( D1 t% o3 ?/ m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 l: I3 U" |( I) U2 r4 U! V8 {reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
. P2 O8 w8 Y2 ?8 J6 u7 L; c& N, V( j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ D7 N3 _; X$ [) c0 h. i. Vimpose liquidation values.
6 E* L& ?# k% t: f0 L4 @7 R6 G, M+ K1 \ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 B" ^3 e3 A& VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& h3 R7 R, Z  N5 |- {  A4 y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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( W+ J* s6 U- y3 \8 _9 X5 R" \A look at credit markets
) I% _4 l4 [) R. L2 R Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% M: e# [: ?4 c# D( b! u; v8 USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) C* p& ]/ K# x! z0 U, Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! Q. V' S8 H6 k; `. ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' T4 o5 v5 o8 ~  ?finding financing.
' q3 t3 G! s. g, r' C+ W9 m! Z4 F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ C5 c8 Z# y. R' T) v5 lwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 y/ y4 e1 m% S+ _$ X) z/ q7 Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% W) |7 F8 l9 V/ f. n! ^: Lgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ d: \; [+ D+ G5 r' y5 [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ m$ X* b! r; i( T& Y, {+ f5 u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- _1 r$ }1 o7 G% Xtoday.
& V- Q- ]9 c1 Z2 ~2 u. n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ N% N! w8 w/ wemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, v& F# C- L. Y7 o7 Q; z# F3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 g, r- D4 O, K! T' X) e  ^/ Sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: O2 u6 K1 X3 T# l- T4 W1 w& d4 p; C, k4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

$ o  e3 I$ Y- _& T% O' x5 tBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# m3 X& g5 y, d  o& ^. ?. o- M$ `but that was before Italy.
4 H* U% G( U) m9 v! S It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 R( w6 H& U+ A0 b6 r. b It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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