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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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  O- s" G0 j) @3 v( q" ?0 MMarket Commentary
$ F, w0 W7 M. ^4 P4 s" aEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 Q: d1 r6 O( C! iJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 m9 F' T- ^- vSignature Global Advisors
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. V" P& u7 Y  O0 ]* G: w8 |' iBackground remarks
/ l/ ]3 I9 p( U7 R/ W2 D; x Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 I3 t# \( W2 f' C; O
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
( n0 E+ y2 e$ u4 A1 J2 C/ b Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' B% s: [# t; N' p% d7 h5 xadjustments.! ?8 s' o( [0 O3 Q4 {- J
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 f/ W4 W3 ~7 w" g$ ]* ^( q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 J6 R: O: M# ^# M Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 Y3 g  }& H4 N* s5 r
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 X; G+ Q4 q* ]' A" B We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 C8 N4 j" G* s& i' [/ Z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 i& N/ s. R! {* F8 t' \1 T/ V9 S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 I% c" A5 n0 C! A3 [, K) d/ U, ~
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. ?, r( y/ ~1 G0 y; z! ~ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, f: K* {# X' ^  ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* K9 _+ U% c% r/ {  K4 I9 M
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 |4 i: d, i5 ~+ v" F6 [% r The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ q& W3 s9 H7 v7 p8 |! Q$ J- bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 e/ q0 ], h: N: |9 Y1 O2 aimpose liquidation values.
( l6 x1 I) L. S4 A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  r4 _/ F; ?2 P0 _9 B1 ?August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 X( I% N- a0 P* a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( m4 k9 o7 l+ d+ Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( o  Z3 ], ^1 }' `; b* I* Z
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A look at credit markets
$ k7 a* @9 n% j! Y8 j* _; I: @# } Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: s6 C. R5 Z1 N6 R* Y- H# z" BSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.3 |5 p4 l. t6 N5 }# P; g5 n, Z6 e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' A) ~; `7 g4 F# Cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; d: A0 Y# K& t, [billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 o/ R) }  @. H$ |3 r/ E7 P8 F
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 L8 o0 x$ i7 A7 |( g
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; h' Q* ]( ^& c7 L: b; ]! j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 g% Z$ @5 A  y2 p! _. p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 I' y+ H* A' A# \  Rfinding financing.5 x; S6 z4 n! D) [2 d5 c; P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  v, y% _6 m- V- ?were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ d: l1 O7 }4 f! X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 Z# C9 u, z/ Y' F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 F! t/ v' B% E/ Y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 o# `) c" W3 a5 Q- D/ h: ?
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ Q/ T8 e* s. ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ v1 p7 [/ c4 Z* ]" o6 y
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
$ y0 P2 M, B4 h: h8 T* W. \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, h1 }% H  B& U4 i3 Dthe Greek default.8 Q% ]+ c2 C* H4 L7 w4 h
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( \& }' G4 R) m( V" C) t( J1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 x( I3 z1 z" \/ ^+ W) K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 b% p& R& l: q$ J" O2 Wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 I/ h7 n6 j  d5 G8 l5 o  Y7 l( X
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  y9 [: ~) D9 U$ W2 Z; z3 obanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years0 A! G* T% L0 A. `
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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1 P" W4 B* r- R- s. x  JBeyond Greece
- U$ @, |: L: D8 D) s# I9 W& m9 l The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 R5 V" c' J4 m; E) y
but that was before Italy.
* M& }9 R+ p8 z# n  D% \* c It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 D; S. k3 x& `9 D4 w/ ?  x It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 c' m4 y+ q" t# w6 V% eItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 [. Z6 T( f' O/ ]" z
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Conclusion
$ h" t/ _/ L' c- g7 ~" ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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