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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# F6 {; v: \1 g

& G$ S' ~, A' L' O: l+ i  rMarket Commentary2 B3 Y, U8 l$ X* \& D) f- v* s
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
' k$ k! _  G2 W/ [8 f, OJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- e( e0 S$ {$ J( A, e
Signature Global Advisors
3 T! u! q$ H. \/ O, v, N4 d/ Y4 s

# a# A/ Z  z1 J9 HBackground remarks1 u1 I3 H4 A$ i) O6 q2 c  _
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 W2 q, l! ]; Q0 T0 L9 h
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& x! p+ ]2 i( S6 i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 B& |5 k2 L1 Y  M, r- m! v7 h/ |adjustments.; s$ P) J% Q3 G( c
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 H8 z- e- {  j) w+ V
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 r. b+ _2 L. h$ w! f) C' t; c
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% N. z2 l6 H9 Y/ H( E2 C2 Jlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 r0 G) }  u0 B2 Z8 b) @
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: h: E6 u( [! {( s- b5 T2 [! |
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 A# V8 ^9 L6 [% o2 B
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: d2 T* x9 b' I; t/ x3 z( Z; ?& F
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& t+ u/ R6 l9 ] Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 `% {2 B7 F; {$ X4 v+ e" f
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' m8 r  J, y* [
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' L& u; Y& w# Z! R8 @/ T! b The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, y4 ?' z; H* W6 u+ g& ~
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 T/ E; ~, [* T& |impose liquidation values.  r4 U6 x; d, l: E! i/ P, T" D9 |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% }0 S+ u7 i! X: h& A% h2 k9 o: q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 a- P" f2 T7 d; L5 ?% I; X7 J The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; i% @+ n# Y+ c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
1 w/ t5 C# c9 d6 e
/ B. T) Q8 b( e/ F, ]( SA look at credit markets1 A1 {, ~( G" m* Q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% F6 G0 Q5 D* ?3 Q; E- S  n/ h) JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 h- {* Z1 K: p8 ]/ S$ y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& t) v5 z( s; ^: o" Q8 `% b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 [. r4 }, E. G9 K5 [3 W3 `billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* p& X- ?- |: U4 r2 L4 _/ r
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. x) v* Z0 b3 V: PCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; ^8 c" J+ |9 Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) M! O2 K' a8 j4 u; v/ E4 l
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, \8 i  b& [8 x! y& L; q1 lfinding financing.5 ~+ P# }+ B3 l# G+ I6 X( T8 ], o
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 Z2 N: d5 N2 A9 Q4 m
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! p. ~) ^) w# {* ?7 x/ H/ |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* S$ Z6 t. O9 O" w. His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 c6 N$ B/ C) ]5 H: n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 d& ~0 q  ^- X+ }/ D' S, Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ M7 E& [2 B0 {0 e: F# Y8 M/ K- w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, ^8 ?/ @5 e( ]+ ^, Y1 X
today.
$ W6 B, K+ Y1 }+ a8 A7 k& ^ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ P- m; l5 [, d3 o: Hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 w) F1 L- H! s7 Z. N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 L/ D9 c, H; N  Lthe Greek default.% y8 X  @+ S  X) I% A
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- Y0 H7 `4 i6 _8 o. ^3 N3 N1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' |3 `( Z1 J! I+ b/ l+ T8 P* {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
! a  `/ ]+ b: l' j& xdebt stabilization, needs government approvals." m# f0 V- N! r: D7 K! E
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 K% X$ z3 |" @/ y7 y5 c! Sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 H  `- ]2 I) k3 Z. B' C) M4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% M2 W* ^9 @2 W; ?* D/ i* h

) J) A6 \& W. v! T, v6 ^$ UBeyond Greece
& P( i$ Z% |+ z1 B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 c; ^+ J. _) t
but that was before Italy.
& Z, W  M) y7 r3 y  N8 \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
2 q( a* v0 K! |6 _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
) D- O" Z& X! v. \Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. c' J- d0 X6 B1 R+ ^8 B
/ V% N7 ?. Q3 O5 e
Conclusion
' V: W& o& ^" V0 I& T8 v We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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