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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ }) a3 c2 a! o& D9 a
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Market Commentary
8 S* ?5 @' n! e4 T6 v+ f2 `2 lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, C6 Y& x1 v) t4 ]' XJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  F9 K# g, K0 k) F! q8 ~2 d) r2 _2 [% \
Signature Global Advisors+ v$ X. t" u, l
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Background remarks  Y8 V3 A8 \& Z  n# ]' r
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 N& N8 D* N9 J7 o' z4 r7 }. f! ]
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  }" O; U& V& Q8 w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- u+ Y5 O# K6 C6 r( Sadjustments.8 ^4 i6 T, c4 k5 {* i
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; l+ n5 k' ^2 Y7 D
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ o6 E. `6 Q4 W, S) ^" ^" N
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- ^3 P& }  }* w4 n5 e% h0 Clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 V1 K# Y+ d- Q1 i
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, S7 ?7 z( A0 k+ ^9 ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  {2 ^2 t* i- t2 h5 G. `0 n) v
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ ], h3 U3 I# s# g8 u- o/ q0 C* xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. C3 d: n: A/ W) Y- n2 ]. C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 {1 x: Y: b# _9 D0 ` Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, k& q7 c0 ^$ |* v$ s7 j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 X( {# g8 P7 r8 [! {$ @2 v- U0 }! \ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" s. P4 I# L; j9 I! b. c- i. x/ j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! j/ t/ h" d( }impose liquidation values.
8 h# t+ \; C' a8 J In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 b3 C5 _' {9 i1 c6 f; a  ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." K; U: E6 B+ M: E2 P7 M; A
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! L# c2 m2 i  o# z) x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
# k. P% [2 z: R0 r. s3 w  { Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ K' @. O% K3 n! i! j7 v9 jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 n+ _8 A/ w) p5 D/ F7 f) h, | High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 z% y0 _3 c6 i3 w0 Z7 |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& s. |: G5 `9 a3 q9 S" t/ N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 X' O" M8 m1 y3 |# Z/ s, Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
/ I, ^) ^3 Y$ c! o. b/ h/ d2 I+ F5 y: ICCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 ?$ M+ b+ [( D2 v+ x+ P$ {positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 a- }* I, a3 Q( W8 g/ X' z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 e7 u! _2 b2 V3 Y2 i: B2 [7 H8 |
finding financing.
6 ]' {/ k6 o5 w$ k* C& W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 r; n: Q3 B6 Q& l& ^- V1 P- cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  P( |& m- K$ e! j! y3 \& L
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 ?3 ~4 p5 [# ]" ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" Q$ E- l) F. ~% c; o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( L" Y' l+ i2 ^. g) S6 Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: O3 x% {/ |7 A( r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. q  ?6 H$ ~, N. S/ ~  O: }
today.5 G: I. \7 T+ m
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 t5 w. l! Y0 H* `. ~' qemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda. }( s' {+ |. ~* }: W! A$ |0 q
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 x: X* c' Z0 j8 N" P$ G/ M
the Greek default.
2 W  c) Z) i6 c9 \0 u3 T+ \6 _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) M- y" l$ ?0 l
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( a- r! Z# N1 J2 b: B
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign0 H. O5 s$ N$ V7 `8 g% H% X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! l+ ~5 Q$ u8 v$ d# f$ P3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, i8 }/ q& K# N7 j0 l/ f/ Vbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% r! R  B) D* D( S4 p3 S4 ~4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: s5 @, P" z( q$ y( G$ U, ~& A
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Beyond Greece! y/ ]- r, k  h+ Z$ V) A$ y: w6 \
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) n; W# N* }( h0 N! r, n
but that was before Italy.. |+ J+ `- R1 |6 |* D4 V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." N& `/ J  n2 w; ]
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 H) a# j/ L! `6 r& _Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 R- ]. \; [+ f5 X& H1 S

) S6 ~: _: U; b- E) \5 q1 zConclusion6 s7 B! e% e* s2 o: G5 F0 O
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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