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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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. u- q; p$ k* H5 n5 g% v! {7 S) y  OMarket Commentary
  o# Z  n6 W; S3 wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
3 x& ~. v2 [' [James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% h1 ?# M- j/ d4 B! [/ @! oSignature Global Advisors
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; a  t; T! ~/ V3 l# c9 K- y5 zBackground remarks
" F) z" Y4 r- k2 _$ B) [( N' i7 O Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
: N. J" K# r  l( ?; s$ w5 @as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 m  f. k5 C* t' P* H; U
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 E/ Y1 I3 o4 I  {+ y* t( l0 W3 Badjustments.
: u$ `! G0 u  n: Z% l4 e! @* m This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ j; |$ E7 D* y; w" U
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# p, E" l  I0 q( q# V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& @4 T2 f2 \# k" i2 o# ?
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" E3 w0 d( A2 n6 i2 k" ?1 F We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( X. c8 e. b, X& g2 P- g8 ~9 Padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.' Z' s3 S+ c. Z2 M
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
9 T( ?. d9 W) P: G' yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) G1 W( {2 x$ W' j Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ y3 R4 [: m( x Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 K, d; Z, s" C* D7 h3 H# U5 H* Mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' J& U! {' p3 p5 K* U9 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 ~$ w  G! V8 T7 ]+ A& r& T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 a+ P5 C' Q+ A, Y% S0 D" ?, Zimpose liquidation values.# D2 r  C+ e% N; V/ U& a3 R. Y4 R
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In* U& v5 i3 t0 r! W- E0 ^3 `
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 Z0 f  f/ o7 Z+ L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, _9 u' y. P: P+ _
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ e$ a+ P0 W. x, ^" G
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A look at credit markets6 I2 n1 H) [( H2 a( x: |# ~7 W: D
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; A" A7 W6 y( V% n: Z4 L
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 V$ U+ t# J6 h/ ]
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 o  w5 }) ~: O1 s5 K  @' x  F
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 F5 l1 n$ Q" x4 x' n
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" m; a0 |$ d- K; h2 P/ m9 Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 _7 |& _4 Z& K  a9 BCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 \  K  [( E! o* s! Y. dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* r1 B' c; ^7 y& ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" M$ U: F$ r; U5 @& cfinding financing.
2 {+ B7 L# Z( V% T Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 f2 D1 c; ^* o6 n2 C' bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 X5 M9 T7 ~9 a- n$ J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 O" H  p0 n/ d4 S3 _% vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( B  I5 Z. R! U3 z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. S" t2 E1 O6 d6 y( M
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 I1 ~( U7 ~) {) v4 U
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( ~% @. k7 m: g; Q1 d4 `
today.
; P& [0 }8 }7 J- K. l3 M4 _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 c- c# I5 s. F- I  v- F, Eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 X3 N$ l7 l9 ]8 {* R$ w" k Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 s7 N! S$ _9 x8 M3 [the Greek default.
5 ~  Q3 V+ |8 Y  G9 C( l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: ^6 P  H% S7 x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% Z  b! u" p, ^0 [  x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) Q, }5 t) @/ F/ A" w1 Fdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 l+ b( o& z1 u: ~% C7 m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing- }/ B) i% \/ r- I; z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 m$ O4 ?" O' E; z  [8 H8 z% ~. D
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets./ c/ l1 c/ {; p2 f  B
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Beyond Greece6 Y* G- C+ c* Z; K( U* N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
4 r* C, A7 E) X8 zbut that was before Italy.
/ S) A# |  u1 A( Z4 p, b It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. J" g" B0 d1 M: g' I/ r
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 q; e, k2 e- W0 `: l8 i5 O
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion# i( X6 h& h& u
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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