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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary( Z9 d( C7 E- Y* x: S
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; u  q0 g: T  h- {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' \, c' w3 [$ z! YSignature Global Advisors! h/ P$ x5 I3 h6 G. n
8 E* W" u0 t7 L8 _

( U0 u2 @+ g( s7 Z2 H9 k, u% U/ {! l7 MBackground remarks
" q7 J* g6 T. {: x Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ h' {. {8 a3 w6 j+ G# X3 _8 W
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- t7 Y3 ?- w* i% t9 K# p Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& C7 {$ F9 P( }& {$ o: t& g
adjustments.
) M3 L! G& [6 v; }7 s) y5 W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 {) r" G* n0 g- `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.* M+ H6 x. m8 s8 T" Z5 G; u
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* \2 X; n# |) b* b: ]+ Tlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 I0 ?% D( F" C7 [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these' h2 h2 L9 E& j; @
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 l9 b. @( j4 r0 r. C
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
  I; r6 v/ B! Lquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 `4 N! R# F9 `' \2 l7 I
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 F4 @$ K* J) u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: I0 s. e; i$ W- e% T* A' creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& |, ?. S4 e: x( f% H+ u3 X' _ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; j; v+ W* N2 k( K
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: L1 ~' N: R* J8 V7 C9 |
impose liquidation values.% \8 C9 K! T% g5 ?# a! ]+ }) p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 C  ]3 s! F3 P/ k9 WAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: h2 g8 y. _4 l6 _2 _, r
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 f# N- E* K& Z4 m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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& ?* n& O' l5 i# j/ RA look at credit markets" Z1 ]( z# G+ [1 _
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, V7 M. Z- B: ]1 U  V$ x' I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% \, u$ G% v# O$ q0 V) ^8 r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 a* z5 B, `8 ~$ `; Z/ p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& ~6 z. V$ I# O; X7 _3 J$ abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* Z. y  G# j! U% b9 Q3 t+ K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 X. A% C2 Y0 m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! d. j% R8 r4 S0 R  E' bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield., T, J+ ]9 ]- }6 k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# Z: z6 N( w* L: X0 Hfinding financing.3 ]. P& K9 [3 U
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 C, M( w" I; O. d, [1 swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 g0 {4 J% R, \& e, L: |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- [6 y1 [: x* r6 z9 l! p1 B
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( p& S# V" M, h: |$ q4 _" i; J
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ E% b, \3 Q8 L4 t1 B7 x3 R; Y1 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 R' E% Y3 W3 l% h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 n; v2 a# K/ z
today.
8 _! G/ K( W% r9 e' x, y! a/ V Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 A6 S7 r- J+ j" r7 ], ^emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda$ o5 W9 j0 S& n8 N; W# v
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! H9 V: M" x6 m1 |5 ~
the Greek default.
5 x9 X6 }& P" r) K. |+ ?2 z As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 K* z0 m0 d3 R6 R! z! ?
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, s  k0 G" e9 i- _' Y$ ^
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
0 b5 \* n% }* ], K* f, N7 hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 c# v2 E/ {' J$ j8 [1 b$ T3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing; ?5 p; Q, F* U# j2 `1 E
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) Y0 R5 ^2 H% [, X4 L( W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.9 A# p: n' P+ ~$ C" Z

! r3 |% K7 ?+ x- C& ?Beyond Greece. M9 J  W. k4 k
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ M; f- D1 g" {; c8 ~but that was before Italy.
- ^$ G# r$ _5 z3 O& u" U5 P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' C1 s$ @5 `; `$ f9 b- n
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 ^; A5 A! p! G5 y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion! `6 R1 Q, o7 r: G/ P( P
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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