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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ u! C! M4 {. d& z+ F  f) `
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Market Commentary2 ^% D& V5 f, Q$ g9 M, c# j
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, e; o6 F6 G1 O' d
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 y* i; N% @! r
Signature Global Advisors0 k' v* y  n: d3 n- m; J! F: g

+ y+ c; a* X0 U9 ~5 L5 K9 d) _, ^6 L* C
Background remarks! N2 @3 ~& r$ }8 g
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. |6 R( S% m, h5 {: }5 l- ]+ F
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& H$ `( J9 p! T9 v2 Z( a
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' n$ [. O: ~' ~. D* Padjustments.
9 p3 U: n% Y# r" g; b; x& B5 P This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ }! Z" }/ f2 A# T9 H  [" N4 H6 Esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# _* `( ^1 j/ K5 J: X Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; `1 [4 K- ?" |' t" S' w$ q' ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners." w9 c( Q  S' h+ r9 m% b
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
3 J4 g4 @, f( f% {1 V( e0 Sadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 A6 x3 e' j, n
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* f- c) {. B' |- U5 G5 E" k1 c5 o
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' z; e5 P+ ?! q! v  L4 b' C% U Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 |* ?% P% c" d8 I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
  T' b1 k, j) u4 A: D3 g) L4 Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 J) z7 d: X9 q+ a1 o The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ g& Z' r: `9 a5 m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. w+ C: H4 M8 y% X7 q. i- N  q- vimpose liquidation values.
2 t; y, w3 g! M" v) V, d# ]+ ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 h, b2 C' Y5 d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' R9 H& l; k2 h9 z3 p% C/ y( N5 F$ ~ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* O% E- n- s9 J
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 p9 v5 S) W9 F9 J  _A look at credit markets
1 n2 ]  k2 F6 b3 Y! _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 T8 f# \: y) K8 w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) T  V& c$ b  _  x% C% L, p$ ?
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
6 r* J. s2 ^( m3 I* L4 n4 kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. s) w5 z; \$ d# `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- F4 j4 L8 {; m. t
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 M9 \  G1 G4 q4 q3 DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: U, S5 M" T2 m0 ~% wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 ~& r6 }9 i8 R0 e2 A9 H- u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' e, s' c& h' u6 ]2 L" qfinding financing.
' v8 j# K9 m+ d  Y1 \4 \: E6 K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% m9 M' Y" d0 `" V  f: J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 G- Z$ r$ w9 u  Q/ q4 | Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ A5 v" G$ B! l! i) K1 cis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
4 E4 u) @$ G6 r, xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 Y$ ?) F* U* g5 {- mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ [$ ~9 P( W  c6 w. Y; j
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 i) X/ M' {* D3 F7 @4 H
today.  U5 a7 Q0 R, f/ |, y! j
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 U4 C; ]! |: O" b4 Femerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda+ f; z2 g0 ^1 s: Z6 F. o: G
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' c# o+ I. l" h9 B1 R
the Greek default.9 d! U/ h4 r8 Z6 Y2 ~$ ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 V* P. Z( ]  h  }3 w
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" d% z5 N+ |% M; c  i
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, m4 G' Z$ E% S! m: wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 T+ _7 `6 s6 x3 `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 I- _: ~5 n" i
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 ^, Y8 L! J: N2 }4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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  ]) X+ G# t1 [7 f+ @Beyond Greece
9 I( t  x& Y  g$ c# k( l' O/ ^% | The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 r' m  F; }, U, n* }5 L
but that was before Italy.
" l+ c4 h6 n: a4 y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& e% |( c6 j  k
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 d% _2 g' ]* `# s6 c- G( [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.* Q5 I0 ~4 z( t& a, [

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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