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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。) ^' x) Q* d6 O7 D
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Market Commentary/ d- o% Y: ^& [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: u0 A7 H3 [# D  {) }( d, l4 mJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager( d; s" B. `' h1 r5 n
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
$ U& N% L+ D" K* Q  H0 a Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 n7 Z# I) n- p& m& M; O
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.1 O/ y; D- I4 z1 y4 `4 k
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( l( e& p, k+ F- |5 x5 t) s
adjustments.
' R( z3 v: ?6 o( U This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: R8 \: _& @% X! `! ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 O8 L4 f6 R* {2 v: L7 G1 n Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, o( [; M7 ]6 Q  m
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: s, R$ {9 @; v! p( z+ z: T
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 \9 \( K, ]' p' d3 L6 j
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 s1 S! P. f8 J7 Q1 [  |! W Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# u& U, K( W1 U+ `0 n8 |6 @. {; F5 Uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 X. W# k9 ~- S& r0 `* B
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( J3 F; `/ Z$ g  Y! ^- u
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ m9 p. y0 l: h0 T1 n0 s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- q$ A  l' [" D! R6 ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# I# m4 a9 b8 [8 m  V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 S/ @% J5 S  R3 o! B' ~impose liquidation values.# O& R% h0 [1 |- _+ g
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ {) w- {7 q& o2 ?! i8 S1 E6 _August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 `( D+ l4 f9 M, B. N7 s: `$ m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: u* n8 {+ e  a0 Z! R5 ?9 |3 K' Q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
6 r) M+ E8 f- N. D+ @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: D# i  D1 t+ A
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 Q! c5 \1 F9 f" C0 n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ r4 t+ Z5 i2 k% Mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 Y; Y$ F4 {: F9 r+ g! I* @
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* S2 N7 c! F' h' h$ f* b
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 g5 t3 l4 |) F+ F- eCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 ^3 e$ P( a) L8 @% ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: q' d0 ?$ O# P; T# n) j  B1 B2 n0 ] Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& W  p% _. `; y0 X( k6 ffinding financing.7 T2 |! \0 W: @$ S% ]$ Q" O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 l5 d3 J3 F4 i# l/ T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 r$ L4 @5 L# x/ H' ^( _' G1 c
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* t. G) B& K% t% ]is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' ~5 z6 ?- n& H  {: L4 m; {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 N) ~4 E8 n4 h( o. e' ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ ^3 H( h, ~& @# N2 R* s( U7 _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 N* u& X9 Y! g" s# }) {
today.: R9 T2 t4 y. J# t
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# L3 R. F* _& Z1 Zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 }1 Y! W* L) I  V/ f8 V
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. K  O* I0 j3 K6 |! zthe Greek default.) O5 o' R7 t! C. Z
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 w3 l. Q7 Z8 q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 @" [* M6 |" u3 f% q. H# n6 p
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* X. C4 ^; I% [" H6 [
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  r/ s/ C3 W, o; Q1 h$ F% b  B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* A0 R$ c0 c. \3 ?, {banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, M6 ~' A. T5 z  z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece. R9 P: h6 t! e4 h7 m" P. Y3 M
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% ^+ l1 V4 K9 ]& x+ H
but that was before Italy.- k# q% X# |7 Y' M7 w
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 S2 f: a+ S0 i1 O
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
; F" P5 k7 l2 M3 S9 Y0 [* XItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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6 c% o! Y! q; k$ Z# H0 p1 {Conclusion+ |5 Q% |" R( j8 I8 c0 h: q
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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