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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。) d5 p9 B* V/ o, D- j3 H

2 Z0 f  |" y: Y/ iMarket Commentary
# v. r( H1 R$ m8 z0 W0 d- x" HEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, W! j* ~7 |7 H* n  S* g7 r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ Y. K  F& D2 l3 _7 fSignature Global Advisors  n( ]- o6 Y- C' }4 W
$ [! ?5 ]% j" Y( k* x3 J% e
' m! S% `9 A9 u
Background remarks8 J" U" o' |4 M& F" D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( r8 R9 w2 e) n) ^' A" P7 ?. aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 _* `# X' Z1 i+ `( U
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* E, \5 j. k5 e2 H) x  W* V  badjustments.
( z+ ^7 Y1 B! V This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
: X2 S2 G& F0 R/ G: Y6 wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; f8 |1 }' B2 ~/ i8 B5 n7 {$ P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 C& _' e7 S" L2 L
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& |- c# ]4 u8 x. q/ p+ L1 F. B We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
9 U6 X0 x: m) s8 H& B7 o- Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 y# v7 Y0 [: w& l  {2 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 K& s. B2 S1 Y1 H( C1 ?
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, a5 z- ?; M, J- X, K" C$ E8 \ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 C% }; L1 M1 c Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 Q; D# e7 W! O6 M, Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) v9 n/ }/ e. S$ e
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: l! ?+ O6 Z' u8 I, a
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; i% N( @6 @; Z/ e) t) {( W7 uimpose liquidation values.3 B$ q  G5 U1 l. \4 [. @& R
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% z" p  a  O2 ]+ Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 X9 ^0 K2 J, d1 O& R: s' T& ] The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- `) a! w  z  R2 o* A# }& T
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
4 l% Z" h" C" E, R
% `  O9 ^$ L5 M! @5 [A look at credit markets
7 V( _9 g0 g& d, c3 \" Y, z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ q$ v( [) w! A4 p8 @2 L2 d* NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' t  U6 K8 D5 m% J) Z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 ^" E3 ~9 q2 U; s6 ~then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. r9 c7 T/ y$ D6 j
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  ]" }5 J" A# ~/ Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, D; n( z/ c  ~: N  P3 tCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ `6 E) k2 G9 d; t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* ]7 ]* Q2 t" k1 [- e; H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- I# m3 Z! z( M5 G3 c% `! f
finding financing./ q9 b. N. ]' {# _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" Y6 Q( e, q4 {2 Ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 O7 s; M8 \4 B; F, e+ q3 r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ f* ~3 o4 V" c* _
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& B1 E. D: A* h  F3 O( |going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. p8 Z* V5 L% |: F: |- ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 U9 \& y# \$ b8 g6 a European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 q3 {' X) g1 c* ?9 H7 j
today.* Q- ?8 |; F; c" w
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. T, A1 O+ B( I4 @- i' X$ ^5 X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 c0 ^# D- o9 t- ~0 H Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; Q/ H4 H+ K" r" u9 \  \1 O
the Greek default.
" k, J) |: x, r/ n" G7 w8 Q$ U As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- I& \5 r+ Z$ H8 i3 G3 n& A
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default# s  F0 Y* u5 V  ~+ o4 m8 k
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 z8 G- Q# C) S4 @) t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# k0 z. ~! N9 O( u2 J# m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ ^2 q  a9 {3 C; I7 m
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 \9 `6 o; b3 i( J  F" |* S' L0 I& l
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- T2 ?9 }3 j5 A

: [2 n( _' |& E7 m0 N% K2 F6 sBeyond Greece
' a$ I$ C7 T8 _3 I0 T The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( b% m( f, C1 |  o/ Ibut that was before Italy.. c! C# \6 s# T( A0 m) w1 i( v
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% ^: `( N# p1 V( u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 K) |# ~' m! [$ XItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! ?8 e5 \# X7 p+ ]: {

6 ?: @+ p9 g8 S  v% ^; O6 mConclusion+ e2 h# q# u( K; f
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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