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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 R/ \# U- G- G; [  |' E  R- b

8 T: ^6 v& M3 u3 p- j+ m7 E: BMarket Commentary
& M/ z" X4 t5 NEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: W1 X1 j& [3 _. U. g9 A* [" O) F( [
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. K' U2 J3 {2 Q/ f7 z. k
Signature Global Advisors  {8 l+ D3 A# _4 M1 m7 H

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3 w: q  u" ~. t, K8 vBackground remarks
2 I; e" q5 r6 k" u' a" R' B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 C0 H* R# Y. t5 o7 nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: t: }' ?; k  U$ c7 c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- }8 Q( d5 N; S4 H. \5 u6 iadjustments.: q1 X8 d; C3 z3 U! s0 U3 i5 o. q: ~
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& j) u  E0 ]5 r* x8 _0 L5 q5 E
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 a5 r0 y- S) u4 G; _; R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) B# F2 t) X/ T! Z0 O' Ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* q% H# K. A# j* h3 t. x! w
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. b! {2 D5 H3 \  H" W! w6 \adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 D: x6 H) t* b' |* C Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. {6 Q) b% V* \6 z: b% D
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market./ j3 C" a3 l0 R* I
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. ^0 u: ^) F3 g. U0 w% q4 Z2 n Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 |  r& Z  q7 c" @
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 x5 q# S* |& t; L7 p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 t; m5 Z: K  xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 V, u6 C& ~" x& T- d7 o, H
impose liquidation values.) T; b) N- o0 a2 H0 h. |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 v' ~3 q$ ]0 k5 \% Q7 z4 Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) v- d% v6 R) t- _1 x; O" [" Q+ h The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 n" r( f1 b2 }3 u+ f7 B" G- C. ~
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 W7 V, [9 j' J5 X# ]( a+ b2 N
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A look at credit markets2 C+ Z/ e, K8 Z: V* @5 l) h
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in! I4 ?2 z; i% o4 |; w. f; g. t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 Y; W- X- O0 u4 a' F8 b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 k3 `0 j& B/ d
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' ?% ]  L  w  E6 g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 r. Z) t3 |/ M, Eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. x" [4 l: _4 K  ?" r; V
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( s+ d% c0 }% V+ N8 w, V# r2 l6 kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.7 Y  |+ k9 G2 a9 v9 q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- E! @6 r& D; @- }6 k
finding financing.
8 u3 B& [; A4 w* Q: e6 {: B& _$ h Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 ^0 V, u6 J& dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' E: S3 P0 B* ]. w Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 ~' L6 j( s8 ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, t" E8 g4 S1 [
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- a1 Y$ z0 I  R3 M7 z4 C' i5 `: c
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 ^: R' |- d$ Z! r0 t  y European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( j$ X! Z' y2 l/ t8 T, _# ^today.
2 j' ?, T; q& V) h7 [+ ]& b8 a& N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( U, z$ c) ?2 G3 R9 Y4 e2 a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 {3 w# l- D: Q7 L- a! ~+ m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! Q1 {" o- Q% k* a4 R
the Greek default.
2 l+ d0 M' c4 I# T' f As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 n: g! F' m) _, F# W- N1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- X8 U  c$ |9 v& q* H4 W7 X: r3 U2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, P. C6 ^* f( `9 Q2 w+ s9 h% ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: B, {/ \( w  O9 c! L
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 r: y" y5 V4 D0 h9 @# c) S( f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, v2 s  u) a* L  f9 j: p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
7 j1 T& L" b2 L+ \* J% }' T* \
, u, B7 M. r: VBeyond Greece
! r( {- N3 Y  V- x7 z4 p The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( T3 F: @" y. ~- zbut that was before Italy./ x7 k3 |3 c6 \
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 R8 c8 u, c8 F/ W& j0 B
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 ?1 Y7 n. s" i7 V% HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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9 r8 v% w, m4 Q+ J  ]Conclusion
. g1 r& {+ \) H5 H2 u& E; u8 f* J" L We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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