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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。) _5 u  c; ?- S; L

" W* _4 i4 i! R' O! m/ N8 PMarket Commentary" t& Z6 t. |7 }
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" r: J8 H5 Z7 x* @4 \James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. w6 R4 u9 I2 G& c" z4 \
Signature Global Advisors
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4 M0 c9 l( B: a  E) _' s. C3 ^
7 `2 {+ o6 i1 t2 \Background remarks+ i0 A0 r8 C4 v4 Y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: t* E% N6 Y0 l) y' c0 M+ v
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' ]) `/ s, o3 [% F7 T. x& E! p Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) C( K) {# D+ ]2 W* K8 i/ j
adjustments.
) [" L6 X7 ^3 ? This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social+ X: r+ i$ E7 Z' x7 h1 |
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 x% K$ _( Q6 V( R( j! H" j Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 l9 z$ J5 V* w. D1 B4 wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 g8 E9 Z7 E& r  `2 k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 A8 w2 v2 a. |7 ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 N$ A% @8 C: }2 T
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. [3 v0 r4 ^# C5 Q# t
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ ?$ l; F8 c$ T3 T4 `* n
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) ]& ?5 Q9 F0 m1 u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 u$ C9 V' _! X; Q4 lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 T3 B4 x$ o0 j" T" |0 W The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% X% f: ?' X! las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, e8 X6 o% I0 mimpose liquidation values.; N* b  v7 W! U& P! r$ Q& W
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! k7 E' b4 v6 cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 G5 {- G9 h# K# K/ F The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ d( P# ]3 r, V9 T/ L6 W4 t. G
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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0 w+ q4 u" X- U* F$ S* NA look at credit markets1 W, \6 q2 w+ ~6 ~$ S2 C, ?# ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 k! U/ i; o' |% F
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 y: m, Z2 [7 S. H. F2 i
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: R) i0 P: ?5 q- P2 w. _' P' dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* j* q# C4 ?% b2 d8 g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 r: }9 c4 e3 D* r2 caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 I$ ^( [- v/ @& n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' i- j, P. q* Z& W( t9 V# E! Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 z$ \6 ]$ [# [: ^6 W+ A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 c/ B7 K% F1 S8 W: Q
finding financing.# Y5 x& D6 [) U2 Q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. E% V. H: L: W+ L2 Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." W. p/ e+ {/ }" P9 k2 f7 n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* t* M  p$ l+ \2 z  f, \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 g0 b! J" {, a( z. @0 @$ f& E* B
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ C- `" E6 d( Z2 T
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 P7 D) l4 m) i3 X* d8 f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* h: ?2 s; ]7 m, A: Etoday.# c# L; g, ]  B% s3 b9 Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 R' C  y! M" N  ], F1 [3 _emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 p( ^0 H5 n& T
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 K& X0 v% ~& C2 @( P+ u
the Greek default.
& O: w7 v9 J- d# @* o4 W As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% R. N) w1 V/ |2 l2 s, k
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ V! a2 j; ~0 U6 ^1 `1 s- W1 E
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 \3 [, [- p  P
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& p% _2 U3 _& D5 w0 X3 |: A3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 {4 d+ U; D3 C
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 J+ T8 B+ W: O" L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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% b5 p. T# i4 g* k. cBeyond Greece! N$ J  ^& r( B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 d1 N% J, d* R4 T# ^
but that was before Italy.3 Q$ s% G, b. m6 a- Y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 }6 k. S& \9 V" g
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* n1 N( t$ W2 w  P. @( W
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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8 }( E2 X8 R7 w0 F  |+ _+ }Conclusion
6 q" c" r# h( g- P% A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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