 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation$ w& {: \+ \: A H$ F9 ?. V
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 `* ?) Z* O) d+ M6 s2 ^as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" ?5 [' K- u' W7 V% T+ nimpose liquidation values.; q4 ~" u. Q3 E# T
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ c o# B* y$ Q' @
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: o1 Z( X6 ?) g& v5 S( o
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 M- ?( J, M7 Z' |% }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets. O4 ?. Z. ^5 ^9 d
4 |' b' y- \5 u1 ^A look at credit markets
; K# N/ C; \9 H2 W+ b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ o. n+ o% S& i& A9 @
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ X0 I$ `9 l6 z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 s4 g' h$ D) x1 }then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ j' l4 m; c% U7 ~1 ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 ^0 C; {" k4 b8 Y: m0 @7 |1 h$ l0 I
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) o+ g# I1 {7 F7 D$ L0 C0 oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ X9 K1 u A+ r9 f% t+ y- ~, }8 x4 ]
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) f8 {- K9 @% l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ M1 M9 m2 H9 P7 M4 }finding financing.* X" y3 n. C+ x1 U# Q. T5 }, N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 t: Y7 F" U/ jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& O" g/ u- V6 I0 X) _- K Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 V8 W- [5 u$ k* {+ l% _( O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 E E( [ f& N# o+ z& _3 a: U# }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: O- f) v1 ?, l- F2 m" q; p! a6 }" ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 ]- r# n% p( M* I. V0 n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) M0 {* J, m- G$ b
today.
# |2 M, l7 y q9 J0 g* j" D Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! K& c2 Q3 W8 m) Oemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|