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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
7 ^1 ?& i8 J& o6 {2 _. J9 K The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" Z5 ]* j; I8 Q! K- ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# P, D, ~: ~' T6 C0 k6 F5 n" z: ^& rimpose liquidation values.: A# z' s- i' {2 B( w
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 ~$ u$ R# @7 K: j% OAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ Q: G' L) G2 M$ \, `9 F
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 a8 h' [1 C6 f/ Q, S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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( I4 I2 P& e/ c$ \. J2 V" j, |A look at credit markets
- g* W4 ]1 x% m( E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ P3 v7 h! k& O3 S, X% l" NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
% X0 `: l( [. Q% m8 V High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 l; F, G/ g# O5 f1 R1 o; B
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# K) F+ L) i! G6 R! {- j: F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' t" q& L. `& a X. v5 I3 K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
g3 _+ B3 ?4 I. }CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, ?5 U9 m% q: G& i; [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# m; D4 Y2 z7 p$ @$ E2 |6 Y& P5 Y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" _* L6 a2 @! v1 }2 dfinding financing.0 h9 b/ b4 I( R: t: ]- \! W8 [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 H% p( b$ c. wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." `' ~" h+ f1 P% l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) s7 g) L* O h+ r* b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 b/ t; N; I5 _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 K. Z" Q% Y7 G3 E0 q/ S6 E6 M. Z
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." y8 N+ R! G0 t& A0 A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% f/ P5 Z7 E! {6 v9 Gtoday.
; {0 x( C p) D8 ~; |) W2 ^ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; A4 d: w9 A& `' J4 w! @emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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