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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
* s' N& Z9 |9 w( {- sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 L6 Z  O5 e( l. }9 ^" ^5 NJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# s' e: \! w7 s2 r  c0 o% Z
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks' n/ Y7 b2 P2 ]& q  ^0 Y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are' j' i% a6 U0 x2 b( s
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 a1 l. @- d- ?5 a- ?6 k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# p4 S" ~6 [8 s& radjustments.
( b0 |! _+ P5 I% N9 K6 f This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 w1 W* u6 }6 |' P! Wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ j9 {# R& s0 _9 } Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 I9 b* e8 r8 i& D# f* ]& n) j1 a
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 F- i7 _; H0 R. }* {
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 ?/ \  p0 W4 m+ ^  U; p
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 k4 \* y! O, T: g Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, a- c5 e$ V4 g/ e
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 Y+ \1 L4 L; t: n, @" X1 l9 g
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- }  J( N' h. K( o. ]8 O. a6 v7 t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# E; B# l# f3 N8 N8 W% G
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation1 z6 ?2 j) o2 R8 u6 I& k
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( h$ Y1 Q' ^' i7 o% _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 C0 l6 Y; w) }* J. x$ ~) limpose liquidation values.
- C+ `8 U* K) `/ y8 T7 k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 [. `) ~: \( v! t% I. _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  C! |$ w3 S& z7 i( f. i The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 z9 H, {' ]5 p) v1 G6 x" N. }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 ~$ |* i5 Y# G1 ^2 n
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A look at credit markets, N2 [2 u& M7 a7 e, J+ V
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% [* ~/ u. r4 h$ }: u
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 e, c" D$ D( E, Y, W High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 n7 j& L, ]0 M' d5 C7 O6 l6 @4 e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( U- D/ n6 m7 g; d& H( r$ Bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 P; D- k& J) N7 X$ ~/ N) h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& j- o& j& B; `+ Y- u  i7 _2 S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 r- o9 C) v! x8 H& g- ?$ z% I
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." l7 M+ N* l( P# G) d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! A1 W) ]: S# q$ m4 n4 L
finding financing.  V  P7 |) F. ?, q# ^, d9 j; \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, B( {0 C, W- s2 {; d4 w
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! }1 \( m0 W% M( @) l Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; }# j- J5 i3 l3 d  b. j# X* I# wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 |! F' D# g6 ]$ a* Y5 T# A+ y6 ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 w! [9 `# T0 K3 k! f2 u4 R0 Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ `. M6 ^1 [. t4 j6 z6 [% r$ t* B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 L5 g. k% U( P. D# y3 j
today.
) v* }  y1 @2 ~. y5 G9 H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( I6 V- [5 q5 o- \( m: _/ Eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 @% t8 ?$ _; ]9 X; H) f1 D9 z
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ y* Q6 o' g" K! E* T- R: a& h
the Greek default.' C. l3 j: z2 o5 R2 d0 o
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 U+ o4 Z3 H+ W0 Q& P. }
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 U, w$ r6 K1 N* b, O4 V5 \' B
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 d' I6 A; Y' R& T4 i
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; s8 s  L3 p1 c0 b
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& L7 q5 M% ^# D* q! `4 |: ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ g  H( S7 H# D& e2 _0 N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 g6 p6 h0 X+ ?! f, ?

+ G5 C3 }$ X& _7 LBeyond Greece6 F, w" `' b" V" V6 A6 G
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 P, a0 X1 v2 [, e1 q
but that was before Italy.7 J: k+ v% N$ D$ s# b9 M! b- `5 f
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% @. l/ g/ o1 U6 V2 L- x It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% I0 v/ s! ^( N/ t- C& L$ u( r& xItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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