 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation( L) L) V, s0 ^- x9 v; e
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, T6 e4 `: \+ Y7 E% V, X# [2 E
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! ^6 J( o; V2 a3 ^. P" V& `
impose liquidation values.
$ L5 P$ r: y# H1 _0 j ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. [5 j! P' m" K* N N8 J; g7 [3 sAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, J' p6 J, N- s; r6 m9 D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 w, e6 x- q5 |, k W. a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 R5 @! C6 o8 K8 }
) [- Z+ n$ {. Y! q* r1 n& m lA look at credit markets7 t+ P7 v" ^% l1 e& w! @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in6 P! H- S6 s0 n6 v
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." H, Y1 Y$ S, L" Z) J
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ B6 M2 s' @. {' t% R) @ c- e. H
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ J+ P2 ^ {% x4 P& ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) y( b3 l7 E2 u% ?3 Z9 \) r
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* R+ }: Y+ K# } G; @$ t$ nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 Q4 E$ |2 s3 t4 A: u8 f# npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ b+ J, C# B! p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ R$ \5 t# h( q0 R) A# M- v0 b
finding financing.
* [; n6 W" I2 V$ k8 A; t Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 J3 o3 a, x! \& T: }# [- }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 n8 e1 d7 t; S: `; u# h, f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ j* D& {% G: jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were4 b0 d. b9 R1 {# r# E" p2 e$ [( m
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 m2 p7 N. |* z% mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 h' q6 X/ O3 C$ R7 Q$ B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* [9 T# z4 a$ O# q. R
today.
0 j/ S6 a* D7 }% C9 S a. G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" c4 r4 J& b& }6 t
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|