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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation' A; C- ?# Z' b) Z( G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 v3 h5 M/ n) ^" p# I# ^7 l- [as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% y( h. i% J4 D! q
impose liquidation values.
7 v2 ~& h+ T8 ~ \6 N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# H6 P" n' n* _9 \/ E) Q7 qAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' Q; W6 j/ T5 i) j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 ]( `. v# r- G# c# P
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ u. B1 H" _ \! u/ P" k
% t" L/ @$ S: R" S0 ?# G5 a/ d# E
A look at credit markets, A, L- ~7 y1 B4 X
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 F0 b p+ V1 ^* A% USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 V& \9 a- A/ |. g# L High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 K& F$ [7 s% F/ k
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& w3 H u' N- Q5 i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ q% x! q/ Y$ O3 z4 R
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 ^3 ]0 z; L8 ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ k% Z, C* f6 z' ?. o" d O; M0 Lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# r; ~7 L' \0 s* x$ w! o+ \% T% ^# s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* z0 @: S2 N1 S
finding financing.( Y; ]3 q' q3 i( u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& @( W+ q; [) A9 y. c% V7 D) rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# {& R, A3 j! K6 Q/ _& b. b( K* }& W
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ q7 o q9 q3 O5 Gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
" \) g2 O& A/ L3 a; F& \6 Q0 @' Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) q3 h& i! k8 N! E, Tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. d6 E8 w1 Y0 o! o h& D% I" N European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 f8 H* J9 L6 ^( c" v: c8 B T, ]today.
5 \+ f/ p% i1 k; A Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 [! l0 J6 N# p0 Xemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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