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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary; F! ~+ a: R" I( A
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* x8 ^: b& H* F; X* p* p0 e+ q9 e
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
  T, r1 ?( O9 E. CSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
$ G0 y# ]' Q+ t7 o4 y5 B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  n! k0 [2 J  X/ s3 r( Z4 B3 Z/ r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. ?8 X1 p, C- j; k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  F9 S) d# h0 v9 c: h" Hadjustments.. [0 ~  P9 H/ r8 R( f
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 N. s0 N8 `: m7 x' \# v+ R
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.$ v3 g* a" A8 _  e: p9 O
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 d/ M  ]  J( `/ q1 w
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 Y2 u( o% Z, R8 o; V4 T6 j# ]
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  z- r; F% H. z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, `" l: Y. e9 e* q- i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ s! v3 k4 D5 ^  C/ m6 o0 w- `quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; q; I* T6 c4 A: ]
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 D5 o+ s2 n/ z5 \* k( e9 P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. [% h6 u# \. D: ~/ t+ Q. Ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: t0 ]  M3 z4 } The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( t+ R/ P$ q) r
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 W9 y+ }9 a1 p8 e, @7 e8 i
impose liquidation values./ V  X% }' n1 {7 S; G
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 q( ^. y8 s" \9 z' f+ T3 k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ ^7 z9 @4 q4 u9 N1 ^# Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# F4 D! P; R/ `; B  ~3 y; `. w2 mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) M( U& j1 ?, _' {, u* V: U
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A look at credit markets% J  k3 ^# n; \+ D: N
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 P+ K& |) S. n3 W5 f$ B+ s/ w: w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 h  [! e% X* `0 i7 W* v High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- g+ l. _8 E+ Y0 `9 \) Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ j4 ^4 R* ]  q7 M9 @! E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 s5 m% e, j; b6 J- e# s
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 m* |2 x- V) ?9 w& k) A$ B+ }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ [2 V3 g2 q: S8 q' o6 [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 ]# O0 H6 n4 @" }- ^0 \. _$ y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: v' i$ ~8 ?! ~2 h2 s. ^finding financing.
2 }: b" C4 e* B: u* X Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) Q3 v3 |' X3 C% u8 x; Y8 E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- x" {6 E+ D- e4 k3 W
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and3 G1 h% m3 d1 x$ M3 G
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, u1 t5 M  \' N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& x) O) U  v0 j2 i+ }
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 x* m" t) g  _; V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- Q/ N0 ]1 P1 D8 _. ?3 Yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: ?# v: v2 ^, ^7 T# \
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: h# \) e7 q6 X- v1 h2 H5 G$ m6 \
the Greek default.8 C9 q- O6 c) _4 Z' y4 T7 q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& s: z9 e6 d, c( P" p  p( w1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 b) V8 L7 h2 H$ [0 `% ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) R8 O0 L: f. M8 ?& K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' E# Q, O" o+ D/ U# J8 C/ l3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' a8 Y3 [4 ^+ m% W- B' Wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  Z1 ^; d; ?0 O; T& Q& W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece2 \  j5 Y0 s% u" _* f. C( _' _
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- V" U, v4 x( r1 P9 @& D0 L: Q
but that was before Italy.3 z3 |# s0 I4 `: z8 T3 O- d) H
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( w* v$ H) s! Y8 \: h0 c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 D1 N* H4 |7 g6 FItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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5 z) I. G* B$ VConclusion
7 D3 i9 y4 y* \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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