 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
# r6 ~* _4 k8 K8 [/ R2 @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! v1 e. s& u$ p$ ^6 y& Aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 y# L3 R; f# h+ himpose liquidation values.
1 ]# \3 \: [2 l+ ^) Y' X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# p3 K, t5 L' T+ W: j! a2 [
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* H, l2 \3 ?% a" L; ?! l- X. L4 D% g* Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ {3 z$ P( s+ |, @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
& E0 k# l+ E2 ^0 q* {8 r( t
$ n8 P* W9 k5 ^A look at credit markets6 o% w# [2 U$ K$ f6 C
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( j; d& Z* V) y5 T* z7 p/ L0 X
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" J% m, k) d: u/ w" @# V: j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! J8 N3 h0 s: Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 g6 _% d$ N! i }2 Bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 L1 S# E4 Z- [, P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# G' l" L. H2 X4 p9 W- r0 oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, @9 ?- w7 {1 y5 g6 |8 N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ b: p: H" U+ ]7 E5 {# c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& g- n: Q7 y( r' ]/ E: k
finding financing.% A. c) w& `* z' W; K8 }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they y. y% O4 U" D2 Y" v1 ?
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 e) J& |1 Q0 k# q9 y! c
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ e* f6 q3 ], i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 h8 j3 K, G2 u6 n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 G/ r' C: N2 D8 Q* h9 o3 |# Q+ zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, u d2 |& B: A5 C European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 |9 j8 J: u- t: e9 z
today.
. F9 H: w3 T# n3 g( b6 n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 S1 K6 P( k& O: O
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|