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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ B9 \5 x# s) d% o" S1 X  m2 ^: e9 |
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Market Commentary
# C: @0 l+ |) ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
$ ]2 Z0 Q0 ~  V- [7 wJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. l# y( y- ?7 z; _) PSignature Global Advisors( `8 A8 t  V" d2 v/ c2 q, l- R) {

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1 M' Z7 q5 B# `( ?& c5 rBackground remarks9 U- i* q" ]) }' e7 x
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are  ?$ `! `* C7 V' g5 i. L+ j
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# `7 `* g, j% G& u: g
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; a' Y/ G/ S5 Y2 \! ~% F6 M& A* ^adjustments.
  p, F9 j, F. g. _( e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 K& }  u* ~9 P4 h# d$ isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 b$ ~3 }4 `( s" r; p) P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) z; b8 v* a- k" p$ Y% ^. i. ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ e* X7 m3 s3 h" A, m
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 r1 k' y2 o, j1 |' }9 v3 O) v2 K8 R
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. n- l7 a7 i# k9 j3 d6 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s- r8 Z# U' O, B' I% Q( \$ a4 E% i
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) D2 u% c3 g0 u0 \% s
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 K5 A+ e3 V, |) ~2 j8 I& P0 p' F
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
% B% y/ A0 O3 }% n" s# Hreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 O8 d( m% P4 X$ v( T+ _. s: X
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 P7 X8 q8 G3 |, n/ n% o: U- v6 \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 I1 U* K- K1 w
impose liquidation values.% Z1 C3 D! b, S$ [/ i# w
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  K3 N1 c+ e& ]0 d8 @& F$ d( Z& v
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. ~1 E% M$ k+ W9 _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. ^8 J+ z( s% dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets! s6 _, F# J( }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 X# Z2 R9 x( `7 `7 v, Z$ [: f/ KSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 o) U% O3 r, `- z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: W( A; d% S* s$ r& U, ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# a. Z. d$ ?/ h7 Z) \+ k
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ X( z' m+ @" Z2 C/ \' `4 M/ haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 P0 q5 Y5 ~/ b8 S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' E. f& K% c8 G5 a7 F& x% \positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. L$ i; B, m" U! O0 I9 k Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' L7 f& d- _/ k( E' k9 `, C! Ffinding financing.
% B+ o" O2 L- Q: _4 Q& q2 e4 ~7 q2 X% y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 N0 s& |+ l; c( Q3 Z, E. H3 j7 L1 ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' o1 G( K; {, r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 A8 l; [8 U" r  f1 Z" M8 \2 ^% m$ ^
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 x7 f( s% d1 u) B8 E
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 p1 @* l5 k- K$ j# r7 b+ sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* b2 W) t- i( A: Q4 \+ n  H, g
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 i  B  d4 Y- K! A, {8 ctoday.6 [! A5 C2 g% t7 o/ N
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 N$ C7 R- z; ]" {; H* Q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda3 m, u( Y2 O' S2 e3 ~6 y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' ~. e% u* n+ a8 hthe Greek default.
3 |* Y. d% n+ s- s! U, @ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
7 ]$ q: K7 o2 u3 s" ^/ k3 y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  T) e" [4 Y! v& @& {2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( N" }. h! Y9 o- E& m# G& d4 p' X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.' I, [- y6 J& H: a
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
6 k- y% |$ b( j* Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years0 i! D2 s% z& J. q# M
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece5 G  [, W0 a' l$ @. g2 X, _& G
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: d: n1 J3 _& @+ ^3 h; r0 v( U
but that was before Italy.+ t9 I4 @% {7 ~' _
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: Z7 q% K- W" y2 R) U8 @  D7 _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 l3 d  s% Z. n4 j. |5 E4 X
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
1 n! e0 C3 [) w We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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