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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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$ i8 @/ I1 S( w% `7 sMarket Commentary
1 B5 O. B" T5 H* GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 q/ m  v# m9 V/ ~3 AJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* }! o$ w2 j. @# X
Signature Global Advisors! e3 U3 V9 @6 R+ r/ i" O+ z' F. N5 b' e

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Background remarks. W" m1 H' L3 W, R9 ]0 t5 S8 U( B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& x+ T4 Z4 D+ O6 A8 {as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* k# }0 H9 ]7 D5 H; b0 H/ C
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal/ p! q) w8 E- C: X) i3 _
adjustments.* K# O0 @1 Q" j' S# s6 m% t* Q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; U9 g& j6 G, E( x7 i$ T
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: w, V) U) m9 X. G
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: g) O) A) y$ G% y7 F- k* J
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" z( `4 L3 z( m* B" u# t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ t7 R, `1 L& Qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 ?: ~9 x8 U4 Z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! I6 Q8 q+ m4 D0 X. hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) i" J! |* x4 z9 q) G
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, l! e  h1 F+ _+ H Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 V" R/ h# t& ~4 Q& h
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 G7 ]4 b, v& G% S4 r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ B! q4 J6 G+ R+ `% ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 {! G+ }( L8 X; ~6 o- n6 s. S9 s* Dimpose liquidation values.
" }2 q; c0 ]+ I4 j6 I! B8 e In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 P! }5 ?9 e- z( f" R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 z3 L1 P) o: |7 E- i; K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ D5 M7 O, t: d* F+ p$ b( V/ C' zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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  g. J" m4 m  g+ m1 ?- X% RA look at credit markets
/ W$ ]2 x- y6 Z Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( v3 W: t, y5 J2 \$ a& W* u: ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 a' S1 |4 T. [5 x" |: z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 j* c% o) ]9 u# v- Kthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: D4 [7 c) l/ ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' |0 x1 J# O: L1 ~- Gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* T: D- u; R  X- f' kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 G2 {, O: j5 N8 s9 ~4 e& _/ f0 G& f
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- S3 ]  b. g. q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  F, E6 U7 l9 W4 b4 @% N* kfinding financing.
+ V& f+ S1 V1 ~: _4 y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! x% ?$ n. ?2 k0 ^9 hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ H+ c) G7 j6 w  i: K' j; [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ p/ H6 S; S0 u/ \- H0 y5 \7 bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 C8 u4 X- D$ l$ M3 i4 sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 e- Z" _5 G9 r8 {* d
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ I/ P& x! n6 K3 T. N European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 }# _9 N* O+ Gtoday.
/ \; g/ [+ `3 m Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' L0 r- i9 M) i4 B: v7 z9 V( ^! Hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda' P/ K- \! v3 k6 M( q3 H1 v: f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ h6 M& O& n3 Dthe Greek default.0 L% q, o$ ]& @8 Y* K
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' H% Q" s5 l  D' [4 ]+ A/ e  x1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# v0 i: B/ b$ ~. S7 E2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( J( s6 ?( X' O4 j
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 y  G! e$ O4 W& ~: q& }
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ |/ W# k( |: }% J
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- V* s1 c% n4 n; C: @  \: U
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 z4 F& t9 `, c; d1 e: b
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Beyond Greece; {" Q) F0 q( X0 j$ l
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ ~) [* [/ }& D& a
but that was before Italy.
# V* l  E& ?$ R4 Z6 I It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 E1 L* \1 j' a0 u6 L
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. v: t0 M- j9 X3 p
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion. y8 f0 E: O- I8 ^% o
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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