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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
; u- [5 S* Q! e! M! U, }6 }* U' oEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 @/ q8 k1 a; _1 H' l
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: R3 K/ L/ _3 g" j; L, c" oSignature Global Advisors) i8 a+ j; Y3 A( H$ h7 V8 J6 o* z
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Background remarks
2 H$ A) D; _( U/ t9 T" \ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, r  i0 ^1 G$ D6 ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  y4 K8 Q% ~1 L  H, R- a" ]4 K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 M3 D6 ?2 U2 d% R
adjustments.  s6 }8 k, q3 N; t
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) |3 ]. X) c) Z% Z* k9 wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# b8 P: a; C! Q7 i Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 g) U' P9 s9 [0 `: O9 S
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 e) |, Q  }) E- j& ?; [5 d/ t" z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 q; G7 j. i8 i4 [+ E3 Z, ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& A9 J& f4 v- c6 C" A; s
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( m: A% K5 s( t+ T$ Qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" U0 o  P3 O" ?# F7 P5 y9 A6 w4 e& R) P Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ [6 Z" ]0 y8 I: d% O Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( x* `6 {9 w; r2 Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation4 j9 x9 {  n3 ~+ v. a
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  B, l0 n# e7 K2 X  }as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 Z) q! W$ h9 ]5 }) o4 x9 H  mimpose liquidation values.$ X( o8 Q8 X2 ~3 H3 E1 H2 G7 t
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 F5 Y2 N+ [2 [. D( }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ b# K# k0 g; K The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 l! v- b6 o, }/ z% r+ H$ Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 F9 s; J, S  T
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A look at credit markets
: l5 k. d1 p4 m7 _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' P) \. U- D6 \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 {7 I6 C9 g# n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) O* x! F3 z8 x) k( Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! M+ p( c2 F+ E: z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 ~5 [* h7 c( N, P4 B# \! h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* q- v8 ~/ }$ x: o1 |2 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! G, F  U4 [6 T8 I& a/ g: M% N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 y% }* @! R4 u+ D
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 N: J- c8 o  l6 K: _, c3 efinding financing.
1 p( w/ \2 V, P4 B7 f Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: J6 J. H; w) A# {6 @- d! k# l
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 C0 m: M% h" O5 e# d Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ }! h$ s9 j. e
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; J8 K1 T* g  j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* c+ V% a, [; y3 {0 j: X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: \) O( N2 |" {! C/ `3 c
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* f+ l  N8 c. X1 Jtoday.
$ h4 P) t, K2 [ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: {6 B- f0 S- _7 ~$ ~4 O9 `emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) w5 v9 ?; @7 z& M) [$ q7 ?
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 P: I" Q9 ]- r' O# Ythe Greek default.- b6 A( T( i; _/ Z! `1 j
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% Q! W: \$ |. J1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( J) z* L2 Y) u/ \( V0 Z0 ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, [$ a& e; H0 e4 Fdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.3 c1 n8 F. s  M3 U* I" {
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  l1 F, O8 T- f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ z: W; Y% Z7 O+ j% A) Q. p4 D
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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" k" @, J. |2 R; T: R, F" ]$ b" mBeyond Greece
9 B/ ?1 Q% _3 d! T2 R( W The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 u( E+ m, Q# [: Mbut that was before Italy.( c% [+ Q" v( H0 F: m* R0 A4 W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 @; P' f+ U* L1 C2 c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" q; }& r# [% q2 wItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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