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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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" t* V: ^" r6 _) G! {: nMarket Commentary& a% H' y3 w, s/ J8 b
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 L8 f) j6 |/ N5 x
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 X5 t; c, j( I& tSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
! k7 o9 h: V/ K$ t Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 Q! ^/ L+ P) }* f) C" C  e5 P* [as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. h1 `' q* i$ A) k2 d Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal4 r1 {) Q) a7 w8 ]5 }+ I; R) j
adjustments.: l) {4 T/ s# [$ d' }
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 d: u- x0 r! H$ xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 M4 e1 o) [# Z' v% q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 K. h$ @7 g+ ~" ]
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
7 z, L' F3 K$ `' l% \ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( {# a, C, K$ T# C/ `: ?adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
, a8 j& w$ N  w6 r6 z; G; L5 N Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& `) g" |0 R8 j
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. z* T/ o3 L5 }1 @! V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ ?1 u4 Q! L$ A' w6 _ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 ^/ ~/ C2 ?4 l8 z( ?' j  Dreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& P' E9 S3 v0 w% C9 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- B$ D! m6 ~/ [% [; P
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 h2 w, a: j4 q% Z' {impose liquidation values.
& ^- l# `0 i+ W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) y0 J5 s! c7 k7 }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." ?! x/ n8 Z# r
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ ~1 w; }% i% V( K4 P8 H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets' {3 Q, X" l5 L8 T% g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: U/ J: ~# ]8 c# m/ ASeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* P4 }) U: W2 O4 l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 `$ c( c" L( r6 Uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) P- z8 `( j& x7 l2 V9 ]billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ J) x8 S; A/ C! k5 }; ?2 \# vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
* \/ _& ?6 f* H- F  w& YCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ I- X6 G7 D6 M0 t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% ?0 a% l, r( m% g
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 |4 b: b7 K( N0 L1 T3 j
finding financing.2 A5 B' g9 L  e& S4 G& Z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ O: X8 l. c; n- J. r  H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., X9 n7 e' C  C# V: @
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 p5 I+ V7 p& L; v8 I! ]0 ~: M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ n2 m2 g- ?7 ]: `  M9 S
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  q2 J3 Z% d1 M' H9 F8 V2 t) ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., P3 K4 A5 @, h
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 [6 d+ L- c  [today.
9 S6 t# h  F2 W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 G7 C, D3 G. z) M! p
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
; m3 B' g5 I, z3 ?6 u Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ ?. X9 Y" l9 ^+ pthe Greek default./ n6 N8 S2 s* k8 n* R; _
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:" @8 n: Y' T$ e$ z! ]1 X
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) b( x' l, ~8 v2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ s6 b1 d. a8 s
debt stabilization, needs government approvals./ r3 ~2 e3 L) o8 H$ [  x
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 T5 r. Q: H! s  `
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years0 H* n0 g) j5 p# Y$ g
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece- o! t3 ?( {0 h" L  X, B) b" J
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
7 ^$ |2 u5 Q' b% abut that was before Italy.  u: e4 w0 J% h# f
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- i+ k, a/ B/ c- ]6 F9 a It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% X' Y- S, D( L+ e  E, g5 r" q: E+ S
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.2 R) F) r+ @/ C1 E

5 v" \/ p  G2 h1 W8 r+ q# cConclusion
+ [- \1 Q) w% _4 V5 v6 X6 ? We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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