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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 p' w2 B+ p# Z* H5 O
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Market Commentary' ]. ~: _3 N) n2 _. N/ f2 W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
: S4 c4 J/ ^" {  n2 A3 OJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 o+ g5 B$ H+ q) f3 x% ^Signature Global Advisors
/ ~9 L# v% k" G0 Y" y+ M
4 Y6 R, s; J* e: U5 {( V
1 p% }" `, ^' ~& [$ L6 ~/ _, a" ^7 G  xBackground remarks
" z$ \$ G+ L3 v- I; R5 U9 M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 f8 f! I" x7 m0 h
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 F! g' K" g9 m8 ?
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 o2 f5 ^# q7 D" a6 u1 \* w6 Y
adjustments.1 K5 N# ?7 j7 q# y4 [0 C+ M6 R
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  r9 O8 ^$ r7 u5 @# xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
! r6 `$ Z5 g$ ?$ Q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 o6 L. ~  l. K& y  Zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' V1 N1 @  Z& {4 C8 T& f, t- m* X
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% Z2 }! H( B8 ]; ?- l1 O7 \
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.( D& M2 [6 j5 k! u6 E+ V$ X
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 v, u$ R* Z5 x/ f3 Q  Z2 {quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 @$ z* [% U! M( ^" W; b0 D4 K2 g Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. m; m, ]2 P6 o# w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- J3 b8 E$ R" l0 S4 W) G3 T
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( g* B/ s1 B4 U& b( {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- Q1 m7 T2 b: ?2 ]" }- A" s7 G5 O" R
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" ^7 ?$ @5 N  D, _0 ]1 i% H: z3 s
impose liquidation values.
8 z& k3 [7 D3 P& c, o0 J In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ \% N+ ~3 X/ r- z- wAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 _; ]( q4 \3 O8 t, j# e The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- }( h6 Z( c; H+ ?: U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( {' {" q$ l8 t
+ Q& ?: F: E2 w* A+ b
A look at credit markets
! ~; @: A( X3 y- k3 \$ \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 S# h# U) L! x- r7 eSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 J$ R4 W' |/ @+ Q0 T& Q0 f
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. w; S5 a9 _6 t' i, T- F. k
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) M, _3 N* R" Q' R" S! Ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: h' g; K, a$ M: z7 E9 y8 Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 t* h( O6 I; P  A
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: c6 p4 b8 {; c$ p2 K2 G. Tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ u4 y1 z1 N" g9 ~# b8 i% l
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' Q3 X* M. U; G8 U' u  V0 v2 I
finding financing.
* l7 T% S- s: F( L Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 @& y7 }6 G- Z4 |7 a: Fwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 |, u! C/ N! q' `
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& q3 W6 o3 E$ p" [# z# _9 _
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 C) K& [6 A& Z0 B5 M: `2 f9 }' |: N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 \& t' w# q# q: v7 |% P- x
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 W) d6 |, d: `( U1 F( g+ v& t; X European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# K4 \3 e+ q! p# s! Vtoday." c: m2 U0 z/ }, W3 b* p, V. C. N
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. G. ?+ E. J1 \. @. K5 P
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 X/ v4 J, S8 j  j9 h5 X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* F' G" |/ ?1 l0 j
the Greek default.
/ K5 H0 |, M% ?; O: ?+ h% u As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
+ \# x- d3 R/ a1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! V: v0 u, f1 G' q  B7 {+ n3 f
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. G2 K, |/ M# |5 m$ K# e! [" u( u
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, H/ a. N5 N* d+ f1 w- I3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! e( D2 O7 v2 F% [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" l. v- ~- p$ O- v* G9 y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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& t0 b4 n2 u# i3 [Beyond Greece  ~. F: i/ V" d( Q
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" K% l4 c1 F  Q' Pbut that was before Italy.
& Y( I0 {# D; y6 a It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 r( C- |5 t3 X' T7 Y$ N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 x4 `* k1 k% L; j( O; z
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: i* |& x' ^) x" J4 y5 x

2 C1 q  D& B% T0 i% w, |( q2 kConclusion
6 a$ t3 A' F. b4 x/ y& V  | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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