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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; R& M# ?9 u9 g I, p" ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' H. g1 Y* D y7 o; V$ r8 |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may J+ Y$ k, ~9 G
impose liquidation values.
" S8 {' |. K) C% A# ~- N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ z9 w0 X. a- _2 D: e( \6 M2 l
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 f, J" J5 @' P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension( f* O+ Q3 u2 y3 S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' V4 G2 a ?/ c9 NA look at credit markets- J# E+ p; c$ {9 A( C4 ^+ U) D
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 ?4 W5 N, o. w7 k/ DSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 k" Z- w, I- Z4 z3 C: l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: w1 N6 m( S, q+ a# H! L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 K: R( r0 R4 U! f' S* d0 V& d1 P+ z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; u% i5 h+ Y/ C0 F2 J+ }+ }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% N. X2 @1 e7 r$ a: }; J! ?CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 y5 a. Y) [; U4 ?4 {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 ] C5 n* o8 k' S/ j% y/ H) J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( ?1 U! C4 l/ R7 q" K5 ~" Y- Z6 yfinding financing.
! k& H# O% g( r. F& ^2 N1 j8 M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 Q, D' a: q8 D. |0 k
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ G) ]$ ?; c: Q- M% V
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ {+ _, r/ j, P) R4 Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ N2 C" p/ s2 S9 B! z4 K+ f
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
/ J6 [9 }# h2 O. Nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 v r1 n I/ V Q z4 o+ N, @3 a! K
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 Z5 p4 C% r6 G7 @. `% Ytoday.! }0 \, [ n% r3 E* V5 c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 ~& N9 P3 p; z. X& k
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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