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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。) i3 `5 B: ~' I2 M

( |7 \  @6 ^; i4 p: E6 ?Market Commentary
. q) J1 d+ H6 z: |Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. Y! \# O" _4 BJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# D& ~& C6 C, [- x
Signature Global Advisors2 T) ~" a3 S3 X& E

0 G7 m, E$ ^+ z
6 Z" c5 |: Q+ G) `1 @" h  zBackground remarks9 z5 ]: m$ M( V# v5 `
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
- T1 t9 E3 r0 `7 t8 R6 Sas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
! a8 @/ p# w# v' \7 \$ p% x$ a Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" v7 M' o1 A9 n% r6 [: c+ \. d
adjustments.
( ]/ P& _. [. O% ^" z6 S4 z7 Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' l! `7 I8 {) g& t$ p7 }; B
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 k% J3 I% u, Q' z+ H- c6 p Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 D% @5 }- v5 K( E8 O: clessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: S& N# F2 d" W( {9 D" Y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ l7 G- ~2 T7 j9 R, I+ T5 }adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ |3 u! `8 w2 w& A Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 J! G& s6 A; y, rquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ M4 i! T4 e; _" s( e Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.9 A* B' l: }$ I* I
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 x6 U: b* i! W- breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' g4 y8 C$ |( W+ X! O) i
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( W* D( {: ?. O  q. ^, D# u* |) s/ X: yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 }. y( P2 g! T; }! k; Kimpose liquidation values.' D' j5 P& u% c3 I
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, f9 c/ R4 k' u. D' Q7 C, ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 M+ s6 d( w7 U; p- n! E The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 |3 h0 Y: u8 C8 A$ Q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
0 h. |! j5 L. `/ g' [, _* K
; P  {( |8 Q4 K. U; kA look at credit markets
& g0 o9 ~" [3 V) n2 X4 } Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 r# [. h* k2 h- r5 _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 H# c1 u, ]- L8 m5 Y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) o; g+ S) [3 J- H; v
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& `3 B% t# M) g+ Bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 ?; r" l) y8 C' J) f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 m7 V0 c& V( l  k$ jCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( f! N3 n) b7 w' R% spositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 z; [) B8 Y& G1 Q; e$ }; i+ ?
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; l" K  [- S$ E7 A8 u5 O& k
finding financing.
! `4 N! f% [. |* @1 w Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. b* B7 ?8 c/ S/ w6 v" S
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, [( I( f$ c1 Y1 h2 n# v- k8 M4 d% W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 b% v3 q: Y! S; `5 w! z' w( Z' Nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. F! n7 T5 M; Z# Q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 r# a2 m! z+ G9 w1 ]( J0 X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ }9 ^& v1 A! ?; H' ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- o$ w3 g7 Q- G
today.
/ K8 ?" \" s. W' D, I2 y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in! g# a- G- x" d* u! B
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( a2 \% F/ Y' Y0 S! V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ C4 J: Z( X" g2 Jthe Greek default.
# C% b8 `3 r9 |5 b1 v# ^ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ I, a0 J: T2 I6 `4 j+ j8 u1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 S" J+ z! U) c: R
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, f  f" }$ Q( P: pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ d! e& v+ ^. C9 K% H3 {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' d/ p- {1 [# Q" D+ U2 z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 l! V! p* I: D' ^' s4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
* E) M& @, C" P3 i, Y+ {- D
  R7 W& b: |+ ~6 G# hBeyond Greece
& Z- _3 q/ y. U7 n5 f3 o- }: i The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 k0 z6 I' v% m$ W. n7 ~5 v( Wbut that was before Italy.
  C4 P0 s& F+ U* p5 k6 X6 r It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- c' _# Y! e. t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 F- S# Z1 F% m3 H, DItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.' X7 ]+ O4 I5 |2 I) d' ]

7 [6 V! Z$ i6 A/ pConclusion( w7 h6 L! p& ?; n5 j% E& B: _
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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