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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation+ [+ T0 f0 w8 e0 b# V6 h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% S3 Q: F5 g# h) aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& a, P ^0 s/ ~9 o* g# c% v) n
impose liquidation values.
3 ^0 l2 j$ f% ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- ?4 Q0 L3 }1 j- J! B8 I% |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# |3 N3 E! I* q9 L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ W- |. w. k' D. U8 x6 R/ j5 w
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; H. u/ b9 T/ Y3 n% S1 X; W. \/ wA look at credit markets
' h' ]! U2 B; M. g4 ^0 p4 h* J) M Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 e, N' c4 X8 T* aSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 C* E; d9 f3 o9 R( f9 j3 Z; S0 x" f
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 W: `3 f6 q, ^3 T3 X1 cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 A$ _) F$ y! x3 ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* M) W6 p9 y; T3 c1 B# B) G
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 I3 f4 t9 Z! S4 rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- d4 p, i% @% @ r& @& r0 @1 x! Fpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield. ]/ `+ u7 _- O8 e, u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 J6 D1 E/ t' H0 G9 V( _
finding financing.8 G7 C$ Y8 j: J/ v& s/ ~
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! G& Z9 I9 o. K2 y' F
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 z' P# f4 m- n+ }; S- M3 j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& a+ m1 a1 |) J8 o7 Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( N7 H5 w( M, A6 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 _4 a3 v3 v+ u0 D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 j; e, \: n/ K( |8 Z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 e) Q9 A( T" S: v0 j8 r: _; ?
today.
/ _0 i) Q9 M4 e) F3 N( @" d/ V- d Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ p2 }' M3 A8 P0 J/ N" j4 k, b9 \
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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