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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation v) O2 `! Z& p H
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 b+ ?* m" Q7 v1 o# c+ X7 w' cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ s% D0 }3 p8 ^
impose liquidation values.# \8 b: X! v! z! J S7 a; S+ a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In; m5 v6 R/ D: Y- \- m
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* b: i7 x( }( H; C5 K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; M8 H) r# d& ?8 Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
" [/ \. u1 G5 P/ N2 M Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 T8 \0 y/ ]6 B' cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 ^: h, i! h. @7 [6 D/ R
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% n# g7 f1 u2 U+ j7 Z8 G
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: I" A: z7 ]+ T- l; d* w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ N2 H6 e' j) Z0 S1 Oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 h$ T' S% \$ t7 f" e6 TCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: w! {+ L& y2 z# W$ b& j+ \/ x& e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! z2 H) F" y; }/ q5 Z' j" q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 k# _! q7 J3 g w5 H9 @
finding financing.. T. o& P6 ~) u3 H, L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* N& h& k* u4 u, B% Iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& H7 R: e. ~! S$ Q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
8 `: q S6 ] k/ n/ ^! \* M$ K- Zis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 V4 h1 d G3 A1 r* K) x1 Kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 x& B1 ^# M$ @* B7 @. N- R1 {9 Tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
3 S/ f$ O. J, g# V; b( X European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) n( N/ |# n' b3 E$ @3 m6 `
today.
' l# V% g; N. ^4 H+ y W2 S. w1 P Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" D! S& z" r Z7 j1 |
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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