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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
/ N+ k! m! F5 A% b The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: K- B: k! ?2 D
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ g( p( {1 C- g* ?impose liquidation values.
" @9 w1 m; E: L7 z( W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
b3 G8 t( S) a+ JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 C& Q* x8 c/ e
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) ], |! B: t8 }7 _$ {
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; X' r* z1 s0 P3 G A
( x% @: S* x; G$ H' ]) @& XA look at credit markets3 F3 x% \! \, Q; q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# D( X0 c, E1 I% R" u) A U/ R V/ lSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* a* U5 p. k- G: ?# E
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- f, {% B! X H h) hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( Y8 E9 ^. t0 l4 M4 p- E$ gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! c2 \3 w6 I8 ]; T6 Qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 \9 Z: Z% V1 G
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ k6 |8 E1 N& m \. |
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. g" \4 F/ Y) v3 r9 H# B6 ]: n Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. l6 b6 D( ^( x) ]$ z1 cfinding financing., u: N) y$ d, Y5 P7 l
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ j: X4 q( ~# `6 @+ p9 B' cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( W. t& T9 f7 l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* C: }0 A* s5 F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# {8 }/ D6 A) J- [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, b }! I; [! O( d; H/ Wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 ]4 f( P% W0 T5 I4 w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* y/ u8 C1 c: ]( }. ? s, V& b
today.% I1 ?+ D3 ^# I% n3 @6 ?/ Z
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( |" u) G8 |" y$ I% Yemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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