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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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7 t' d- ^! X  W  IMarket Commentary
' E) H0 b8 `4 g& S( {Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& w. `! M2 f% ]; X9 t
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* M! k: b" S# n8 ^
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks; s% j1 U4 ]3 X$ U% z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 o" V( T; e5 e+ l" _/ V
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., T( F2 u% y( e( \/ @! _3 L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal1 l; ?+ S' Z' ]; t' p% k
adjustments.
- i& K7 t' w$ U8 {9 S* ^/ ~ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 j0 C: t- U3 d8 e% \  A2 e% l  _& c
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% s- {7 X8 a+ L+ g* V4 g Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% Q* r3 l- @8 j( {7 D: n
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! B! x* |+ @6 W/ i/ ]2 D. x3 ~ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these1 S% M! p. z* H8 C, c* |
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ S% @* c! j) h6 Z$ k! T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) {; b7 |) E' j, v+ H" K
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( W& A( D& b" c$ q% V6 u" h Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 ]8 K' k4 ]& b+ f* A* ?0 [, D9 v; Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- a0 S0 D& v8 N) m4 T$ y% q  s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  N1 l- Y. y" Y! V$ D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' k$ m5 c' H6 o' j; Y9 ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 S& ^7 w1 r3 G4 d  U: t& U7 ?' qimpose liquidation values.
. S, V0 ?. _. V$ v. Y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) t0 }% T) O" g/ m9 z8 F# \7 tAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* O* d+ Q$ G8 z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, p5 |4 a' ?% ^* Q4 F' }  a! u4 `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' d1 C' {  U' Q) ?6 h5 _+ r8 ^8 A$ e$ HA look at credit markets5 F$ D  ^  ?) G7 I5 V5 K8 N
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& ?8 u3 b1 t: [- H8 t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 N$ S. a! `  ]2 {; i
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* J- j, P( e7 \( M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 G5 F+ }! }# Z* p
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, @! a' M! H1 ~" K5 |* gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! O* V. J  g1 T( @" tCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- }4 O% G4 \8 e3 R8 X0 x6 X
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." T3 W) D3 ]. X# u6 J. z. K, _3 d! K
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; x3 T! x4 ?- lfinding financing.  h; q5 _5 j* P5 u, F: J  t
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ Q* y, f7 Z4 Y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. Q' E$ Z% S8 u1 d8 T* e: \2 T
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! ?1 q' z- I$ m+ f* [. g5 I9 v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# [* O$ E6 l: `- H/ K' J
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* [" f# s/ M" @4 ?) h5 B8 |
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 J5 ^3 x; ?3 S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& k; H4 V+ A% S7 `  ~3 X) ^1 Ktoday.
/ b8 j! D& t% m4 _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: @2 D6 k  ]! p" a$ O3 u: [emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" |( m+ @9 j- h  O  R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ D; ?6 a# c* x5 vthe Greek default.
) c# @& N) ^  Z; X As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
6 m7 k3 v! X) P: J1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% u, J4 Z8 ?6 I5 B) U3 c% X. j2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ \' }/ R' ^+ u/ r2 y& Rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ t2 j( F: [! G# X* e$ I
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 Q% E1 K4 E# wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 c# }/ v) I' `4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. X9 k4 B6 y9 m. g8 c% V0 d$ d

1 z, g) P& |& b7 U( j$ w8 eBeyond Greece
. j: v7 c4 F1 H, e: j The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% o7 [6 ]% R0 I% i1 O5 \" Nbut that was before Italy.
" W, L3 b" k; B3 a  k; A It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( u% q7 j- L$ W' A
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the6 i+ ^/ E8 y) E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# H. R' e9 ~* [5 R- f/ s3 f# \
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Conclusion
4 p5 e9 Z. _' r% i/ b5 | We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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