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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 Y9 g' ^$ V; ?2 {( I
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Market Commentary
4 g: A8 f' N# t  [" _3 \& ?+ IEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ m4 ]1 S# j. P6 J0 p
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager/ M0 H) Z+ i3 b' Q
Signature Global Advisors  ]; ~. d. C2 R0 l

6 U  G1 q3 ^: }$ z! o1 `
/ n8 k; q) n$ y, _' kBackground remarks) Y# B  q0 W2 u7 H
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: k! R6 D) A8 c; b
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ j$ O& x3 b  b) {9 w' g Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 D6 E7 S4 V- f3 g% Y$ L
adjustments.
0 u! u. W9 I$ N7 c8 ~8 I  |1 n  r8 {( q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ y8 T: u6 d7 b4 i8 h: v+ ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" n& }; ~: s2 F" ~$ p& d& j/ W Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& }: _4 C( R2 X: X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 a2 G- g$ r- ~$ [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 ^) n1 m# ~, O3 r6 y( p
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ h+ ~8 _' }+ ]( v Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% X0 L- g- W4 ]  w5 {: }
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
% d7 W9 n9 R/ \% Y) v3 U Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 T& q) {/ B! ]
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 A& |! h' m, p9 R/ I7 C& _5 `
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation1 A7 U- c0 U. x) h8 r2 A* V, i
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. `. W/ j# {% `as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 k: P! V# l, F0 K' P
impose liquidation values.+ `0 @) B/ l/ e9 f3 g: q5 F" y# d5 A$ a5 P
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 A/ |4 e# K/ p0 r! U$ VAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ F1 V5 O) j& H1 ~
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# }/ g4 @8 U- q1 Q0 B/ o" Lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 H' w# n- v9 S0 ]! _  y' v
" {* B% l0 D( H0 `1 b
A look at credit markets
  g- e+ V" k; z+ V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ B3 ~$ H! I7 j6 j- ]8 d+ ?
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  O/ _% I( ?7 v$ q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 G+ I1 n) e5 Z( M+ _- S9 u' athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ L1 r* f( i0 ?& ?# n% Xbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 `; U# Z2 u* z3 {1 k' F3 e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( a3 N' Z- W6 g) O: H' j
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* f) i' O/ N% H8 S/ _: z: I5 G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  }& k; Q) Q) P# p6 d7 B* F Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
: z% }* K  P+ E, \! _/ c% g) L" H( Yfinding financing.2 d! o" {; Z. A( ~: S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 [8 ^+ y) I+ K2 K5 f8 o6 V" l! C; }
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 F6 `3 i; ^0 c) r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 V  f# }% R7 t/ l
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( o' J. D# I( [  R) s. F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* _1 s/ Z. h% D0 m/ n
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. t( a# t* E2 L, K% K9 Y+ D+ }, W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% w3 ^1 p. O( F+ z6 s5 ^5 Z: ltoday.
5 L& f5 `' U# v7 e6 \: o) g. L$ X5 T' V/ E Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) m$ F4 O& ^1 q8 |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' o2 S2 f3 G( C$ q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ h3 ^5 j0 c* |4 d5 h" c  s8 U7 Uthe Greek default.
" Q) I0 g2 `/ @: n+ D As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' Q. J6 q4 E# E9 {% y
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ A! i. y6 p* G' N* k; r2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 M) y; L' q, P5 y1 ?; d
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ R2 l- b7 [6 s. ~& A+ B& S+ c0 x
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 z  W6 U! f  u3 ^/ j
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ {2 |7 P+ p1 M9 L7 n6 r! G4 c4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) C( e% F1 o- Y7 q

* N  i9 J5 y) G( v) I- A  lBeyond Greece
3 }: |$ t  A! \, O* F- n( f  ~, f! W: M The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 V' J) y) @9 e+ P2 @$ k) S9 w" Lbut that was before Italy.5 ^- U3 R  |& p4 T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." V/ v" n2 n& C; n  T
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 K6 j+ K8 [: b, SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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. j4 K% `0 a1 f7 L2 ?! l- F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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