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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ w& V: l" B" V' K, M& b& \0 S
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Market Commentary0 F% c: y2 M# j1 _$ N0 P) Z; u
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ ~0 g, y- M# Z' t4 D- v5 ~8 C1 f- {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! U! [8 |6 M! h- p* K+ \' M" ^
Signature Global Advisors
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7 v; S6 m4 Z& \% @Background remarks
) H1 a4 \- I9 y& h) F  L6 n! [9 W3 M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ ^+ O4 U" e' y4 ^$ O/ eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  ^; X$ U6 k6 S! m+ s( R
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" z, S. H5 i3 D3 ladjustments.9 z  [3 F( Q& B) \4 ]$ U
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. ^; ]: a  I5 q) L3 u9 Asafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  z+ `; o# T+ p' Y7 x7 J# E/ g: f
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! J6 h3 I% J: Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) e- a) t4 z2 W! B, W) n8 ^2 q% | We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ U! ?+ O/ [4 radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 y6 X1 P) d" h$ @, v6 d
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 J! H6 b1 ?7 X6 N$ x
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 B7 S! N8 s  b0 Q: e
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( \1 H% s  L+ t5 k. {7 L% {
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
% u! ~& @; f% F7 Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 [* Y! Y/ z( R+ V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ n+ E! O% q3 q) o
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may* n, r2 L# K0 Z! A" ?
impose liquidation values.
+ D+ x8 i' ^: ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& ~+ h: ]! T8 o- l" y! i
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
$ o- k, j" D2 }( D& n The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 k/ |% B$ ?& ?7 A. s$ T# [
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets$ E, s/ f: F8 |( B  l. I4 A& a
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ M' @6 A' P4 d0 G: r
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& F  \  X) v5 W/ c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ h; E3 Z# q9 ~! h0 A% P% H7 a% Mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 o. }6 J4 i1 D
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 h3 T/ G% W" [
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' U& S2 C& c" m8 G0 D% R3 ^7 aCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
( I" g6 O+ [0 y: c5 I! Lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.8 T- g, ]! d; E( u
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# P; j" Y6 D% i" Qfinding financing.
, a: ?, |3 v! L2 a) s Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 r/ b$ J* b: p) a" d
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% u8 R/ ~5 {% T! ~7 [4 T
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- C3 U4 v, Y! N( L+ B3 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ @  e! K* S2 K3 p5 C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( E7 k# A6 p$ X* r$ ]) C
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* W7 _% }/ b3 ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ |6 ^  y2 d5 U- n& |! Y4 X
today.
8 j" L4 n# Y1 |/ P  a Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& Z8 l, S+ g' \: m# g- s) Nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ S9 q6 w  O+ r4 ^' I8 R. X+ { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 G( ?  x" V2 l+ mthe Greek default.1 \$ P: O8 s% M) u
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( Z/ o% g' Y9 D1 W1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
0 ]) F4 ~- c* A+ |. y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, r1 }- `# G: A* ?# j
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.% h+ {4 G% t; V1 E1 k: A0 f# ^
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 I1 {# k& x* V$ e
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ `/ `+ I/ U1 o# \! t: r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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7 O, K, i, B9 @( r% OBeyond Greece
* g" D7 K! O/ M; M, I The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 e7 N  I9 \3 ~" u9 b  R, O
but that was before Italy.3 U) k1 v5 K) ]' x' m& [
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
: n- [) ~' [/ @1 _' ~ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ j- n. T* Y) L
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.2 G& l9 Y6 b$ \$ L

6 k8 k. N- \6 X/ J* F4 D- K) ^9 cConclusion
9 K; M- b4 x) d! U We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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