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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary& z# P9 M% p5 [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer; C; z% B$ j. u' @. m
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 v6 A: W: H* @  e. O& Q. o0 ZSignature Global Advisors
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" g; N2 ?% d0 E, p3 UBackground remarks
, P& h! l8 h  k  |" [& u Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are4 J7 X2 ^7 u( ]- B5 L
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
4 q" L5 B0 d: F- M* \/ ]2 E Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 y' o" t3 Q8 p: x# S. w3 Tadjustments.% v% d# a1 D( p& X& ^
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: ]8 g5 s0 Y  C5 U; e
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 D$ b) W) e2 ?+ n Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. ]1 x# F4 }. Glessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: B' N8 ?- D' s2 R, c2 g We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ B( |6 f, R. o5 L: f' p; gadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 g6 r9 q  T7 O; ?5 w' @) O9 N  O
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% r# p6 m, j2 t, z  A
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 y8 D+ a' F7 h% h# F1 v Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.1 v0 }( R* ]: z% F- {' K( o( C& {
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! U9 O& a  \+ b& \
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, ~, M/ i% I; |! @! O( X% Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 m0 L" f9 P5 _" [as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  O4 H& s% D4 j: \) |5 Q) G" \( }
impose liquidation values.9 Z: V; O3 F# B# R7 x. H# y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 \: e1 |. h& {* H7 hAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ r5 n3 ^) y5 m+ X$ `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' G/ J1 A6 g- v- wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  l  S* O0 \2 A( z: r7 s" E

9 N  z' }" u% J" X$ d6 f8 YA look at credit markets7 s. u: x- `0 a, {8 j. b# c! w
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ f- n% B- w: KSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; `5 x) j# N3 Z/ @2 ~
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" X* m- P' l: r2 w: sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) `& J: p" [( R# Y/ i" `billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
! Z# _6 [$ w$ i: K4 Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 K, s) F( p; c- D, ~' FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& B  h7 y4 W% V! C4 d( Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 z4 I% K2 D) {/ \, k; O3 I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; [! [) P9 G$ q+ Y: K; W
finding financing.7 L0 g9 L% U& r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 y  B. X' T+ R/ d( e* kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& J+ [2 E7 _- J( G1 Q6 }1 N/ _
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 a5 E. g! i% n/ f) v! w) p$ {0 b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 c; j: c. |. S/ R) g9 Sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 R  }: h' [" z2 q& hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) I+ q& M- ?  `, X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# X$ q% `, j0 Ptoday.. Z+ }+ g0 t7 O: P
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 [) ]; P6 o. l3 t2 Demerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% k$ n- G$ `. _2 ]
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# D  X, f5 @$ h# i9 G# I8 C9 ~
the Greek default.. }0 M) ?0 N. x; y; ^6 D
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 \% {, E/ p0 A% q1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default- r4 {$ ?, `$ w: W& v/ R4 i
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 {7 I/ o$ x0 @# M. q* gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. i1 d7 J: Q, j- q6 L6 R3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. Y: _$ B8 H+ R8 r# _
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 w* P/ u, b( K4 T! \
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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! O5 F9 }2 ~1 |9 `  Z. }Beyond Greece, W+ U" Q$ h7 l+ \6 O& ]+ _" U; s5 x
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) [4 Z+ j8 ]' y+ v8 O
but that was before Italy.
( }1 x/ \* m# z1 i It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& g# H( Z+ i0 n6 R7 w& d4 {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: @7 k  a7 T4 \/ U2 x; m* G' {+ @6 N2 GItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion$ c0 Z( F( X- s1 q4 S, g
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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