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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; Z. y/ }9 n. z% y8 R  z
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Market Commentary( Y9 m* j. @+ @- t$ S) d
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" g0 x9 E& B! a2 g+ y1 L4 a( KJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 H! s$ z0 j' t" B) c& CSignature Global Advisors% A& [5 @% l- h6 R6 f1 j0 K6 f6 D: q
) X% Y3 y6 J3 S  q

1 b# S/ z) Z+ G* TBackground remarks& w" c" E2 m- \  A$ }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! }6 z$ R1 x% D. }- i$ J4 p
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  n  b2 |4 S& V
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  _0 `; |: }9 Z' b, Aadjustments.( y- q; u7 F" f# c0 Z* G/ ?. t  i
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& \! v% d8 Z, {8 p' |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 ~- N. w. T3 b( O% O* S" O5 m! \
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  @7 N* {. f6 n: k
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: n' V8 [6 \$ t: T6 p: W
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 Y% i6 B2 Y7 _2 ^, E
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
7 ]6 [7 Z) O& S" N Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& {' C$ J( F% i3 V: F4 x$ `; U
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
% B: f- [. x7 H! {/ _; D, c- C/ \; a& O Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ Q! |% D( w! y  G* u+ N+ R+ A# h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! i$ H$ x" l( \9 L* c, Ureduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* N; s* S9 @. M4 J* }" A2 r) Y
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 G7 Q% S) g8 ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ [) M) N& P9 f
impose liquidation values.: ^/ P; U2 z' D4 J- B
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  O7 U5 u/ L' `+ i4 h' W4 G
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 O$ K( Y( b& }/ D( r The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; c; n2 t& \4 V$ K' \
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 W, ]+ J# ^5 A! s* z# R

$ y8 D# Y: D/ lA look at credit markets
: Y6 \! g2 F0 ^" K3 P$ W Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 |: T3 q0 X! j8 e; z" k) M$ H' NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ I4 G+ Y: |! `3 ?, k5 ]
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& _* p9 |  V8 v% S0 v8 J* h' G; v  Jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 p; E8 k$ N) V
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: G( l0 g1 o+ h% r2 X" Iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: F. r6 I4 @) W# f% [% y6 Q) \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 t) e7 u, m$ m. m5 ]% tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) D+ K7 S, T* C9 D* E' N, b Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, s1 [( j/ L/ G. @finding financing.- p% M5 _- h6 |) I6 \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 c& y/ s; y7 o5 W/ ]were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 T! ?0 X7 v* Y8 K" _6 u) f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  ]2 w" g; ~4 l+ R8 F: d
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 _/ W' B9 M6 B  N9 G* ygoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 ]* A  ?5 z- c1 c4 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., G% a- ^8 D, \; l
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( e: ^( u8 x9 j0 ~' ^: J
today.
3 b( V! a4 |& f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* p( \5 z$ e$ U  v
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) R+ l* E9 C$ Z2 ]' G Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* b" d( l7 P, N2 d( P
the Greek default.
8 h" _8 i  u+ [' P/ V, T7 s As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:3 Q& d+ O* h$ _$ X2 Q6 \/ H) C
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 X7 b8 s* f3 M5 B( H& X
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% {9 i! z- J# \9 ^) n% Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# V/ t' }* n8 j. T2 [0 H. W0 k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% h) i) O* _5 D4 M+ L3 \
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 l( P: J1 P, P' h6 _8 a( F$ ]4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 e7 z4 Z, U7 q! J# L' U! q
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Beyond Greece
! C, [. K# U, _$ L The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) J  X1 _0 u8 u1 Z6 n9 f# j% Bbut that was before Italy." K3 M' `1 k1 k0 p3 m9 K7 e
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ d9 I& q* @  }) Y- F+ }0 x7 @) E0 b
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ x, u/ q- h/ o; t+ ~! g9 t
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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' q1 |' U8 W9 Y& ^7 tConclusion
4 l, h% K$ d( p$ D/ L$ j2 D/ z8 P$ B7 d We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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