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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 q$ C2 x7 f( c
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Market Commentary
0 G$ e4 E' L8 S4 m" e! ?$ cEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 r& G0 \2 ]1 QJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 n+ b3 M. R) [" s* R3 ESignature Global Advisors8 E' ?/ D6 I* w8 s. W$ p

4 m% X- G# S& ]) T9 E- P1 u4 k3 ]9 ^" S( g4 Y
Background remarks5 Q& D$ p1 Q& n/ d
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 A+ H* p+ ]6 @+ E$ W" p- V7 r. Has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
* J2 @9 ^; J( p' J3 O. K8 G6 w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 ~3 b, C4 M( f0 s  N$ S$ ^adjustments.
4 }* ]4 u# J% u4 x This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% @/ G8 K2 K) C" q- Gsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 B* t/ L! ]1 M
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 v9 p7 |/ N; L, o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 [2 f6 g4 D8 Q$ h1 ~; |' p8 b
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 [; W2 M9 M* ]4 i" n7 nadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.& N* ?' d2 E2 L
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s  m) I, I) T) s  p) U
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 b! v1 h$ v  {( A! r, X2 `& ^0 x3 \0 L. ] Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! U4 v8 K2 x6 D. e4 ~' ^, M
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, d# o# r7 f1 p8 N0 g( W) preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 B5 {' m- Q3 t- ~8 l& Z7 j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; N1 v$ p' ]/ Mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ `: b4 l( W( e+ V+ W
impose liquidation values.
* @4 Y2 t. N, O  o/ Z6 o In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ s0 s8 L- o% h: K. Z0 J
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 r* Q7 u( d' i- M0 V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 r$ r3 i& M/ {+ C, \/ ^8 m8 }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& J1 m" a6 W5 [+ V

) V# k; |3 ^7 Y6 J6 C9 e( ~# zA look at credit markets2 V% d: ^+ P; Z0 y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" `6 E/ [5 v# z9 Q+ p
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 F. I3 p& t( R& w0 u
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* K* O) `6 R6 y' v
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 _- j/ F& {" ?
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have! v, a1 d) ^; B1 g# ^$ A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 e& g' F  S5 @, D. _. t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 V" K! r) L2 Q" F  Y; p% y! Xpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 N0 ]- _$ k/ \/ L$ u Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ P/ U7 b% Z4 d; A. m
finding financing.9 u% ]6 ~; W$ \' Q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) N0 W5 X4 x0 }4 c, t# A: Y! g
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ P/ ^. C+ K/ g1 E0 z& M
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* S1 H' |% o& P9 k9 P6 ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 Z" i6 A+ v  B: W2 @0 @" Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 S4 c9 [! c2 F4 H" t+ O3 F( \
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& ]0 x7 ]0 h. M European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 Z1 }4 T% R" H$ g4 \
today./ B( Z; v4 V, V. c& S6 M
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 M0 J  B% B( U. I2 Y. memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" E$ L  H# j/ c6 C Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, n8 {  R& S: S, u' ~& N2 m
the Greek default.
5 W* t/ D, \, r  F6 P* t+ ^' p' Y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ Y: ~! i& b* {  d  Z$ _8 ?8 `1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ h4 @3 W; ^% ?9 I, @9 R2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( R- q8 m  j( P7 P" l" [. J
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.  g: p/ c) t. p/ Z( _
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* O8 U; D, Z; y9 H- Sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 l: h( n# e# d% z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.% B  I" m  Z% \/ C. ~% V
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Beyond Greece
* V: F: I5 M4 }% A8 T The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 j3 d! S6 k5 c# z
but that was before Italy.) i1 l, M- K2 t' Q- T% {* Q+ p# Y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( z/ E& a7 S( w' u7 T( w6 G
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ X/ p1 h/ {; ~" ?
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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$ ]  P1 z2 O( L+ m; s8 D8 ^& X( d2 FConclusion
0 `; I; J( Q1 e We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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