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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" h4 t1 C  t! i! z- O3 D

( @6 \. |" b$ }Market Commentary7 V% O) ]: s* i% N
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; @) Y. z( G: dJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 z% l8 ^) L/ N% m% j7 A7 a) sSignature Global Advisors7 @" u  @* ~3 K. k6 t; _4 o" J6 U2 b
5 k" f; s  ~, J2 A/ c0 i' N

1 K  G" Q4 o6 |6 q$ qBackground remarks% @& t# q* T, H$ b. Q5 u/ }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ y  k5 l  k5 [6 p! n. D- s# o! _8 u5 j& H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, \1 `+ {. d  S5 B% Y: w; C Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* r/ Q8 p: C  ]: U9 u
adjustments.
6 L% N3 r9 i) P( W) f This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social9 I& j! V7 Q) [; N& j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. H3 `: Q! Y: |! {1 P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
7 Y  ~( t8 r) E5 c6 ^* n3 qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 G% ]2 `+ h' o; y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ B% T$ i3 H+ [$ Qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 F; G: H3 m! _ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ H7 I7 M" f( p. B# I+ Wquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 d. ~7 V. s1 Y3 o) I0 ~) @- n0 S) h
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& A1 b; N  P7 v+ C8 a) U! b  x( Z- i Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 J7 @+ Q1 J/ ~3 I* Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; w; D5 {! f  _. G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ b7 \/ ^0 o3 i1 v9 Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 B9 k+ S. b4 {1 B* x
impose liquidation values.
4 E  ^; d/ m0 k* \" z! H In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In  @, j/ e4 B$ t6 @5 Y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 i1 x. s% Z* v& C* h/ [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- G, W' m1 z/ X2 q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
2 V! r' G1 @( W- h. q
3 @9 K0 }" |, O; i) L! cA look at credit markets/ z- q* [3 G: Z5 C$ w3 ]* ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 D' E- e7 f! n7 J  RSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  I, |' F. L( _- O3 Z: k% R8 T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" Z% w* K6 {) R+ O+ m( m8 Ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ q4 \4 h, n) A9 U# P! t7 Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 C! |5 ^* l( V7 Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 Q9 ^2 J+ W8 L# n$ y; lCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- K! W9 _) t+ g: x6 p+ H1 cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ i3 r$ ?) f& V0 |
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 E( K0 L8 u; I. A( R" s! [finding financing.
6 V) H. d- n& h% i9 e; w Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: B" @  L# {: Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- Y4 Q" T* J. [& J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& [" Q. W4 X; v' s/ A
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# d/ s' c/ Y% n, H, V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! R6 D- w& e+ J* Y# A8 A5 t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 A8 \# t+ r5 K6 i. g. K7 d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 H6 @! Y# z+ j; ^: ~today.% I# u. {' m) ^7 F, J8 ~. U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 }5 H$ H/ F. I
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 e" t3 s, m4 `- X! N$ r5 O
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ d& E& W5 ^( l- z$ J  {4 q  Y8 Dthe Greek default.; d& s7 J8 V6 n! P0 C) H3 s
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 V0 O5 M7 i# B( C1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% B/ e0 t, B9 f8 T$ u2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 w# E4 L/ E9 c" I" h. J
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 T5 f3 ?" C2 U; V& Q  h( _3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 X; `! h' {; ~: a" o5 Ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) j$ I+ L+ b- q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
! i* p+ c  e- g
2 e7 T1 {  Y) m. ~" K; k. dBeyond Greece
" w! i& l1 ~# x2 U The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& H' P8 h* [( a  @but that was before Italy.9 o+ d  n( l6 }1 G. i. N
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- n) ]% V8 Z$ f5 i' H- k5 y It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: Y; ~+ L: X$ s3 |
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# R) ?& r4 c" T

" O+ k+ ~6 z& ?( v- @! o7 O: NConclusion7 l1 x0 q( u# i) k
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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