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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
% }, @/ x9 H* w! P  F* E. E5 b# A! \# P4 S7 O
Market Commentary8 ~1 U' L3 d) |! x- E+ d
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ l6 i6 M4 r* q" k7 JJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# {3 E2 c$ d8 _: S5 I( i
Signature Global Advisors8 Y1 |% z0 R8 `" G! r! K8 B4 N; W
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) U) j4 k' ~+ ]% f8 pBackground remarks' G# y- C" Z0 m0 R/ T- [
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 r; y: C$ G  a0 S
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ e6 c. s; i! U2 }- C Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ o, z8 y6 n# ?! C! xadjustments.
! [6 U& j. _' K9 w( e9 |% K This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 G9 V0 |' P+ t' ^% \  H
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ ]2 x- Y% H& k
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 i# {6 m0 b2 A  e( q- Alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ s) s+ }; f7 p- F5 @  ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 h! `! E$ l! h( hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 d% S: G: J: } Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 \& U" ?: L4 S- _& a5 \
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.$ J. F/ X- s3 y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* h$ _* p4 _/ g/ | Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 ~6 D3 K# u9 |9 Creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- }! B4 V; _& B5 \' A% T4 X
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% q7 K/ G3 q. z5 H& E6 J: tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& B; |/ l: j1 w) kimpose liquidation values.5 v* f. k5 V' H0 K
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 \8 @; m& z, G  ~, P
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  p( q+ R# c- d9 z1 g4 c  f2 w
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* L; M% J/ J' G) ?* `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets* f, Z$ ^1 D5 o* [0 g0 ?$ E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  w3 r  P9 u+ y: K- }4 i) l% S
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 p+ h" G8 R" p* B( C; Q% D
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
+ F2 F. Y& A& L8 K! k4 Zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, h" d2 V, Q" V3 K; b! nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  w6 J" b5 N+ p3 }" paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& a$ t& o9 \, b% Y* }3 A3 @3 dCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ `/ w8 v! ^' q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ b* I( j$ l. f
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& g) K: y1 D7 v. E' j! S4 kfinding financing.# B$ [$ s( D$ |/ x# _; k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ `3 W; _# G" a, c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 E8 S  Y/ [7 Y/ J; t0 N( d Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 W& e( i+ O8 e# Vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% V( o8 m: H: a3 E) Q5 egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 p' D% W0 v  i/ W2 Cbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 y& e! W! \/ |9 S) L! L& V European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 h. o! s; @. ?0 X+ M+ B3 i1 Gtoday.
3 x) G* ~, m& M5 a* w6 z! v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) F, \3 \4 R+ e" s
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 a* V% V4 z& r! N% p1 G  E Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 f' w1 ]# @' n, D- B$ b' J" xthe Greek default.
# T$ X0 v* l6 w" G) X As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. H# s  m6 u: E& a1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- f3 o5 E+ x  y9 F2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, ?7 ]( L5 |1 y4 R  o
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.  ^" T$ n5 b3 ]. _2 i( ^) `. g
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& \0 g" ?6 X0 V) ]- @2 F0 C( Ubanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# K! n9 R2 z0 `. B" K" n
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- u2 ?4 h& H% j: U/ j9 y: }( J
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Beyond Greece3 r) \7 z4 z- q4 T; l* X, y" \9 y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& @( W* p# e5 A' n4 D. B
but that was before Italy.8 z4 w) D+ m7 L5 [7 [0 Y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# |# C2 m. A# U" o
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* P# y* x9 I4 t/ j8 A8 o  l
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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! _' H4 U# V1 c; j" _0 g% dConclusion: L6 z7 N0 `/ M( m8 u; l3 h% t6 F
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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