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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary. M- y  s& u7 K# z8 y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 F- W# `# [3 d# z2 I; w
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& z6 Z& U' ?7 g7 K% ^$ ]* a& tSignature Global Advisors9 n" \2 A) Y+ _
) C2 x) o  ~4 k* z# \' P
: ]( j+ m* r9 R; N+ Q: [/ E+ D
Background remarks
! `) h+ K: a' i- K* E/ Z! ?% K Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( w- B. N4 P8 V) C/ h1 Z
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& S, L8 f4 S/ _# N# J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( l% R8 ~, g0 F* X: x- ~6 ]7 d! Z: j& ?# [adjustments.1 s/ u' ^" y% A
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 D7 ]7 \4 }1 i3 h
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 ?; \/ A  \# a( `4 m; {
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 ^: K5 |2 F; ?6 V$ t, Ilessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 r; ^, j. H8 ^. c+ z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, m% T: W( w$ G6 x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# ]& t& i; O. ]6 m+ R8 O0 s3 p, K Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ t) y: f- L! i: s' bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
& s- \! s8 r* Y5 s Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* y) _/ y' _0 v; V6 ]. m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 F2 P- O. E/ {: G! I
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; }9 L, u8 o) Z. e: i( j0 r' W The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long/ a, o9 K) N# K7 j" y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; Y3 j* C7 ~- Z$ E
impose liquidation values.
; E3 r+ ^( {3 V% p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ k# _; _% \6 @) T' i
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 q5 K8 ~' H1 }  Q1 z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  ?! v! G* v( T% d7 R8 Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ }" T* B& f) f1 m, T# @- m
, s1 \2 V4 u) k) ^. ~: o
A look at credit markets
. G" E. c7 _0 P) ^5 @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, z7 a; j  O, F# \* ^, r+ j9 M1 p7 N: pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 l1 B# p1 r/ d: G High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
  R( _. N1 }7 Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ G1 o/ Q) m" obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' k* I! a7 q$ R1 i' M( _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) n5 L- o4 ]3 ~5 ?
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 a1 S& b  v) a+ C* C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. Y3 ?2 ]8 Z, W Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 ]; J, ]7 `3 ?2 Bfinding financing.' `$ h5 [8 E+ i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 Y" c  W, J! q1 t. c5 Z" a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! j9 f6 J/ h( y# h1 U  O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ O5 c0 U/ K1 c# R( `# ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( v- W& H4 m: k, R
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* q/ M* ^5 r% J
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 e% V8 W  |5 j. t- C9 ~) | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, C& {  z! p. K. i+ V
today.9 k& k/ o  Y' s' ~6 A; x5 x7 S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& N8 M2 o' t0 A6 ^" |& B- Memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 h% m! ^' O# [* h( s* T Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: e* K7 j0 @. }1 S+ L; ], O; U
the Greek default.
! ~+ c/ y: ]/ H/ `% w, _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 F4 r3 ~' z& E' q2 {7 z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
; W. O2 M. H9 q% H, u# J0 [2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 k( y: M# @2 D8 ?8 B0 Z7 Vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.! `6 I( F% m+ M: n: u$ d
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ `" o( T* o& T1 Q, q, M& n+ }) ^0 _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 d1 J/ D( ]& z2 c, q) Z( m
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' ?6 Z: M) V8 E9 k: |2 o0 N9 e5 N1 f
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Beyond Greece) ~, Q! b: a% K9 b& i' c
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 h5 K) [" U; R. l/ ^; X8 l0 C
but that was before Italy.$ ~! z- g. h$ M2 o+ S
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.7 N; I* A) P- Y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 {' T. F$ [$ J3 WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
+ s. e  J4 Q& `. g+ U! z- J+ R2 n/ p/ `9 `) M+ L* ~
Conclusion
7 v( @+ F- B3 c7 n We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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