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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 B) k0 Q+ Q8 ^

8 @# d. T  x) YMarket Commentary
$ ~2 |8 P: ?1 ?* {5 uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 x" w* x, m& W! D+ o
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: j- W7 C4 M3 j: e% ?
Signature Global Advisors1 {! V6 O% P2 t% E

( y1 }: O7 R3 r. o# V
8 Q2 y; G2 T/ e7 ?/ Z6 gBackground remarks
  b8 Z4 s2 K; G. x, l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" k& U" Y1 w% [2 t! t- eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( {" G* W5 N" l/ x# i  r% ~
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, h4 Y. c& R, J9 \. oadjustments.
# G: K- g6 C/ k$ P9 \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, x! B5 I1 z; y; ~; Osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; F$ ?" n, N& n9 ?* d5 D Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% w2 m$ S: [; F( slessons to be learned from the frontrunners., l" K1 w2 d- C2 U' N8 _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. Q4 x; f) S5 O* ~adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." x) P* p- B" y- F! i) J
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ {# r5 b0 \5 L: X' S7 F- a8 b" oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  f" i4 B# @: H- i# G. @. ^ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: [, K) G  A$ r6 Z
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; w: E( |8 \, I' I! [5 D2 l# creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- c7 V5 w! @! }4 i, f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- a4 N$ d8 o* A# c# V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 g  J" U* }4 n1 U9 Z2 X; jimpose liquidation values.& @  n8 \, x& p; ?4 m3 |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& P: I, p9 m2 RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# k2 M4 k2 I7 y- B) _" a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- a: y) D( ^4 K: }. lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. B4 |( p* A4 F* ~4 @
7 z8 r3 Q9 X  ^+ D# x
A look at credit markets
" U& {3 ^+ ^1 j# g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) Y& F3 w7 n" l( a' t3 E. w  KSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ P4 y1 u% v$ E+ k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
9 |( x! z" {8 n4 Z" Hthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $13 G! Q: T" b$ ~% g) C4 L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: R( X1 {6 C- C4 Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, t+ D6 A& P/ kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 s% u+ M! m4 y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
5 F" t- ]8 o$ |* ?$ H' t5 x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; }4 V6 \3 x9 @3 k: g1 b# v1 g
finding financing.$ f: \3 Z8 Q/ }3 _7 T$ x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 U+ q) Z) J; N3 k, s0 M, y: Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 k1 a; N5 Z# M) g$ D1 S9 r2 A Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& ~- c$ z& D, o- p  G& x% }7 Lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, A) I3 D9 F% q9 b$ I/ w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 S0 B  M  D( c4 ]- ?* D4 D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% A. t& ~; d* T/ {  z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# v9 A: [0 G+ a" c! B- k4 P! htoday.' [7 I8 R/ i) Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 X! P4 V4 b5 e! T2 ]0 N
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 n( s: o8 D' H" o9 t! M3 R& J) F$ W
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
7 o9 K' ^+ t. J1 K2 mthe Greek default.
: v9 a& c: ?8 G5 h; f As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 ^- V8 S) T5 {' j1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 `2 \3 D5 h; C4 F7 w7 m2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( N) Z9 `: [7 G
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; g3 Z% r# Q4 r, j+ `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' m3 z& u6 r; G4 C6 h1 @0 }4 O' Fbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 e( m4 q% ]- ^, c4 j- I4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
+ X4 \2 \5 E8 W+ L2 @9 h. _( g8 b* A1 B$ i  O9 Z- F
Beyond Greece& B& i( s/ T/ u7 G6 A
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  D7 o# Q% r; Y2 ^
but that was before Italy.
& @/ e5 w3 h# Q+ n) B7 L) l* x* v It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 i4 X0 E' b) c2 J4 `% X It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; M; x; O% r- G; h
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., F" m3 R. F& O# P; b3 _8 B

2 e* i" Q, l; {Conclusion
2 h0 e5 `7 P, a  P# K8 c1 q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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