市场综述

小曲

6 G( R9 H) Z: E( @% I9 }  LSignature Market Roundup


Eric Bushell
2 E, E& W& b9 P5 L8 [, TSenior Vice-President,
: _. Q, j3 y6 @9 q7 w4 _Portfolio Management
  L* a7 N7 c3 Hand Chief Investment Officer

+ j8 f$ Z9 K( N自lehman倒台后美国第二阶段的风险投资的恢复到四月底基本结束了。第一阶段是从2009三月到2010四月， 但被欧洲的债务危机和美国的减慢中断了。第二阶段是从美国联邦储备局2010年九月份开始的非传统的缓解政策，被称为QE2. 这个运作造成投资者抛售美金抢购房地产，商品期货，贷款，和股票。现在这个政策趋近结束，美金趋于稳定，这会帮助美国财政缩减，解除政卷市场的压力。面对美国QE2政策的成功，而世界其他地区都非常不稳定，现在可能是时候将投资定位到中性风险。

9 d0 K9 R" O* [& v/ EThe second phase of the post-Lehman recovery in risky assets
may be drawing to a close in April 2011. The fi rst phase
6 B" B+ [; }1 `8 Yran from March 2009 to April 2010 and was halted by the
European sovereign crisis and a U.S. slowdown. The second
* Z8 b. L& ~6 T$ \8 H* y5 m! {phase began with the U.S. Federal Reserve launching an
! m9 r" V. V8 o4 Z: c$ ~$ f) Runconventional easing policy dubbed QE2 in September
0 s5 l4 F" M1 I4 q5 f6 v5 C5 L2010. This action saw investors exit the dollar and scramble
7 X4 I- U/ y0 k& L9 [$ m; Ffor real assets ranging from property to commodities, credit
and equities. As we near the end of this policy, prospects
for dollar stabilization grow; this would be helped through
4 k; G5 d5 F0 Z5 UU.S. fi scal retrenchment and relief on the part of bond
& f; y( T& U3 |: R$ fmarkets. Given the success of the policy and the heightened
# W6 p5 U5 u% I0 J4 d% `uncertainties elsewhere, it may be time to move to a more
8 K" z. ]6 i" N+ lneutral risk positioning.