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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 i' U' ~& f7 [8 W$ i1 _' N2 m
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 N* \0 M- H ^! Q( j7 d
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive5 {2 h$ J8 `/ [4 C6 B! j+ c
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. a1 i; _0 z7 H' g; D: ?according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* y0 p" x; K0 T( S "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 y* R% d2 s) t5 _) gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) c$ c) k9 y( ?! @* J. k5 K' X3 himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. L- ~: L' o$ h) R5 \6 j! P) a- O( A
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.". J- d0 y3 {& l3 t1 }7 B
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 p0 z. L6 n8 u* B; D& Y, t
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 r$ ]3 X3 b4 B8 l* }which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' J/ S/ y! Y3 Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 H3 q, S8 s8 @5 @9 e
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 b" e; r9 d$ A' eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
* H ^' a' F/ M; {home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. u9 \- M! V) h6 RAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# B# I7 ?) a: pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% [1 Y3 F9 k+ s- |/ `7 [the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& t- {5 s- v; W' A; o According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ c4 `) l8 |! L
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! M! D9 U+ b. C. L
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! w3 C$ l* X7 i7 X" @' x, M+ O, Whistorically depressed levels. \' K3 |# _- ?" l. L
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& v& i! I* Q n9 S6 \2 \* Jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House$ Y6 |; k6 |9 r: m* l3 U9 a' T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 @5 b! v) P# @& B; ~* X
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. l9 X! ~1 Y& T5 Q: m) A: B+ |5 ~9 `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; [7 V: n/ x3 F/ A; x" n1 g) ymonths ahead," added Hogue.
- L, N5 G" N) R7 E. T, i RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 y3 ~/ {* G$ T) ~' _6 t& @9 J
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 @) j% D. q/ ]2 ^
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 Y9 N- T, V! [) h" x# ?" c/ u9 b+ z The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' b- l; j0 t/ B' a, Ta broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 f# q1 [# J/ o/ G fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 S3 I8 R3 v9 J( R \takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ I- U9 y6 r2 y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& t7 j: j5 v& M/ |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' P! T: T' Y. f7 g2 r' U. ~) u: fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ O7 Q, S9 y w, s: b
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' G; ? y2 X q4 s. J! F$ ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 W) s. y5 m! g' g! Z2 ? T/ [) z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 ?( O( t2 p2 \0 \( o7 _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. d+ Y7 Q, n/ o: [
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 e4 T: O: I+ {( T2 B
; u: x* g; n o7 c% l <<6 u! M0 h# Y% b) i W+ y0 h5 Q: p" |
Highlights from across Canada:
. h5 ~) C: U) N/ z
3 ]4 l" M( S$ a C - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' T5 m+ Y! W' p8 [9 {/ c# W
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" [) E& Z) q( s5 ~( B' B4 i home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 B, O; B) C" r only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 D1 o. A3 h" i7 k6 S since about the middle of 2007.. E& h. \" b0 x) h
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: f3 |3 j# k0 H+ L
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# G( F4 I: J* f9 C5 B decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ [% o1 f- E* ^7 y- t
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% K' S* ]) ]6 s1 `. a poor affordability levels. L! `: Y. l3 l+ Y) \" p! u3 ?
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& e4 r6 [# }, U+ r; E+ G vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 [* ^% |( e0 E! l% u! ]
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." a( b& v& W5 u- z, X8 B
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 T& R& ^' c1 M; Z, f! j# \& G
minimize any downside risks.$ q2 g& r% m- N8 m# l7 c N0 J
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; V1 l/ ]! u" V+ U0 m$ e4 m2 ]
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 [$ }* ~) Q |2 l6 l+ P" Q8 n. ` unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ B; ` q% n, e, f; ?! m$ r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly; V# p6 f3 j% t- ^1 s1 ^+ \0 q) V
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) _3 |2 n6 T( T - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 r, F# c- e. x. j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ J3 N% T7 x5 h6 T7 s* i
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: x3 u' @. E6 F1 { reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 v2 Z {0 q3 z1 [) I
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ M6 t0 ^0 Z4 H' C/ w. z0 o8 k modestly in recent years.
, S; j: n. ~- B) J9 R ~3 n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( v4 q G+ n) r+ z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
- p Q/ w5 g. t5 `! `: K- j spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 f0 q* V# A. r1 b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 C0 Q5 o1 L# t1 s' X0 E, X
following two years of deterioration.
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