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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" n9 Z. q; ~: P- p TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
/ A3 X F. J7 W5 lmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 |- T" `8 g8 O+ h0 [6 F8 {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 `2 T: D6 G. e. N+ w
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- k3 l7 |( |1 R9 o7 v) m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" d j* a1 C7 Q/ F& x8 B. w; P; W: ?* d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% z& s5 v3 \4 G( u% e9 N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability ~8 J- D5 y! z( D' U7 N; N
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."( S3 Q+ ]% n1 I- a8 l- V
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! W1 V% d$ M! \. vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 @' j# n# W+ N5 y, e Gwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 }+ a6 l0 n4 d* F% csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 }6 b- c, o, s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 U# {( W' A* A+ |- B" F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, [* i q+ i( ^1 y( }* o0 g! V
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 T6 Q* n* ^+ ]7 o. k/ ]) v
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 M% |. E4 ?3 Z; q1 s+ k8 n
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 O' e" r7 f/ n% I u( E! f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 a/ f/ D# B# L3 t& A& d* ~# N According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. f) Z& @/ A2 ]+ y' i- J7 }
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 ?* [- b5 Q* j
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at& u0 x! ~3 E+ u6 n5 Q6 F
historically depressed levels.
5 ~9 L2 ^0 X# s D: A Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 u! l& }3 v1 I! r! T) O- ]; r
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House1 r/ A8 e; G9 d' K; \$ q+ k! N r
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% _/ Y4 X4 i2 _" V$ xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 G4 h# j/ {2 ^6 H5 H9 m1 penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the9 c. b. y. Z; B, h% D* d' ~
months ahead," added Hogue.( r4 j s& z3 _
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: {9 I; Q( _' a8 x* j9 g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ w% E: n2 c0 n E4 q! `% r5 A
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 v! O) ?( n9 |+ [' N% _0 { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ {/ o" g @$ D( A0 {! ^8 ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 O; p. y6 o: i% V( j2 M% x4 i/ dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( y! O+ b8 V7 S! U; z
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& w2 R# @. L5 V
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. ?0 ]7 r. k: `/ w9 ~0 l
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property1 i# q) `' B1 z! l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 {/ `% O8 n- `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' y- F0 u7 p: I E( M F7 b
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 q8 N6 a# y; }* E. e0 MFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) t3 C8 p1 O7 S0 T
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 q. t$ R; D: |0 r: E3 eper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 ~& p3 a3 V. U3 I# J: [6 F
' L; P$ Y0 ~8 D- O
<<
* d; m. t4 o2 a, ]- z) o# L Highlights from across Canada:
: D, `5 x' o8 o5 V) e% h6 S0 e/ k/ j b. N* k" I, l. }
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has- U$ v+ m" P+ q3 ~+ _
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 P1 y- o: v* U5 E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 O* K9 ]" u0 u4 P# x
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
% Z+ m, n% J+ ^ since about the middle of 2007.: A0 p- I! ?. d% [" f) t- u M4 g3 W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 ], T5 k9 t8 `* j$ w0 ~ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 d) X: C/ v! c6 N& Q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
0 ^* d; W( } k# H+ n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: u! p8 [) k1 Y3 R9 z poor affordability levels.
. b$ }" T4 [0 d7 b1 y. I5 G. e - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ @( Q, C; H$ D; m0 H. Q' {
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 b! q$ F: Z/ U2 Y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 S9 i" j5 e0 a3 Z+ u4 Z9 M
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
0 _# I2 E0 o& U$ ]; \2 k, D minimize any downside risks.% K9 w6 [/ Q9 v- i! M) ~2 ~- N
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' L; t2 T; j+ I# }( @
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! l+ j8 t2 K6 R3 W
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# x" B3 Y7 @, ^- m6 w
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 m* f2 V3 w. e$ X2 V* w$ A
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. o C; z* f# o; G! z$ Y+ I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! u. _5 v9 F, Z Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, _0 W; e, O$ G( ~8 @2 u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
6 j2 [4 j2 i1 o% @" Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 S( E3 O8 n9 R
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ b* C1 N* T& N0 i2 J
modestly in recent years. x+ h0 v" z, N$ F) R' z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- S/ n: Y# v! @6 G; F, U8 K general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; y' ?0 C" N7 f8 {
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, ^4 T6 g Y& P1 {: B# n1 w price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" M% _& ]$ s% }+ C following two years of deterioration.
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