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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - n. i1 {. |# J: n3 v3 T/ s
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the7 T% \5 V& p; ^: P7 J9 h
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ G$ a8 h- T( V8 j! {, m. dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 T2 [) \' n6 `6 D+ `according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. [- X. }! B4 p7 e) J' C
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 f( ?! y" U6 T' m! x* k. N! A
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% y5 ~: c/ X' R# h$ m. X+ D
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, W9 `) J* A3 \measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& ]+ M; p9 R# Q; e8 J& t$ F# K RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( X- _7 J; T) b, Q& Jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. ~0 J+ }3 J% A& F: x& H' R xwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; Q$ o" n0 f$ R& q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. y+ x( |5 v7 P3 x1 Y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, C9 o+ E0 J& |% T/ b' k' p" M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! y4 m6 P/ F: khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" T/ s2 J) k& x# K/ H& VAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, K9 K3 Y" ~9 w* I' q0 D) T. x
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 w8 I/ w$ |) W5 i! Sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 W G z; D( v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' [& g, h! ~( J9 k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 h+ T0 ^% {3 t3 d2 V s
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* C, r# t# E5 k! N( E+ i
historically depressed levels.7 {6 z; u3 f/ w" s/ A: l1 x
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ y0 H. c! {6 o* R6 f
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 c8 W$ J" N+ Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 P9 b* z( T; O8 F. [ Q2 }4 Ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- j, J' Y8 c' Ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( L' ~% d- E! k% q; _; V
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 v0 U5 i. \! P RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ s! m( Z2 G, L- d0 W0 `7 t1 j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 O* _) n" `# ]) I% E1 o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) l1 R2 a& {8 z" G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 O$ I% k& |0 r# h8 V/ Xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 q5 N9 R! ?' P& Q: ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 X( Y# y1 B1 e1 Btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.% {0 f/ |" X( Y5 Z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ q* |6 @7 h# z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& D: y Q$ |5 \# c; u Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 p/ h2 u4 Z" D1 @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, @$ z5 ^2 g, R8 L5 ^
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% n- j, M# M4 PFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 I4 M5 u' X7 p9 h% i, b" r0 @costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 |4 A* m6 u) Zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, @2 l3 j3 i- I; K* U6 {
/ b6 P$ ?: P' w* `2 p' K <<2 F v2 d* R- I3 D
Highlights from across Canada:- k1 K3 C; p) ?
; Q' T9 P9 @' Z6 t& U. ~, ^
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# \6 R' B2 |) J n8 ~ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 e+ h8 g. N# S2 N6 T% a
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' x' q; b6 T2 q2 U
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- T& o. H3 B5 M0 C9 I+ I since about the middle of 2007.
$ u, F4 o6 @9 A0 y* n - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, a; O" T6 s) ?5 i/ B0 g5 l9 @ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' X0 d# _. p5 H. W, z+ t
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% ?# R( |! b- q& w& ^ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; m4 [" y" `1 ^$ K: [ poor affordability levels.8 k+ [8 _* S5 k' l" Q0 d
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
p$ H) X; j/ ~1 [" [( f' G vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ {! O* T0 o( e" k5 D0 B+ t, C! f prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 o* j5 }& f/ P; l( Q0 Y) [
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, ^( w1 E' f3 h0 S, @1 V. N) \ minimize any downside risks.
8 @. p6 N- K5 G: F1 c+ R. ^ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; H6 u) b" _$ k1 w# M conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 k8 Q9 w Y2 n: z8 R9 r K, _ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' j% E( {. y+ T
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- f: G8 v0 B5 s
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 U: d! ]! D0 L8 {' y+ C
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
5 E0 K7 Z: u2 [, t8 u9 x Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, P5 p, g" r" l3 P1 Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ j* ~& Y* w3 c8 g5 x; \# X# c6 ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' ]( @' j3 j' U3 D3 _) ^! L6 L5 P/ I ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ T# E4 q6 Y2 r6 U$ w3 \
modestly in recent years.
) s6 g" E$ X( ~ t7 ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, v( ]4 _( V: W$ }9 i
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 y& u7 B2 J3 `8 @' U
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 Y/ ~+ U- R) p2 P9 r# ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 P7 w3 Q9 U, M' K
following two years of deterioration.6 p( s9 b% q( w- b( A4 ^7 _& [
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