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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 I6 s/ e( ?' }, _- g& m% |/ m: F TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ e# P/ L/ @4 f3 j- O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 k/ P& g$ Q5 o7 @
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, S7 r$ g: U' `/ |/ taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, V0 _( [' n/ @5 W- i% p- l& o* i, d) | "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ A$ Q6 h( N0 j) c1 V
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- D1 D) R9 S, S' {improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 x6 b, ^& R7 k7 C( \& Fmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
3 T# q4 N) P# A' H- n- F2 O6 ]$ _ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# r$ O6 Q) F0 r2 |7 Cworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% f( h5 f. g4 P$ u/ C; N' D# _which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) ] A4 \, e0 U5 j4 H! k8 B
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." N: y0 k- t! r/ g+ L& {5 f
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 N8 a: U( j" o9 Hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 z4 a8 G$ H- P4 chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 w4 \$ [# F- g) w! xAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 |6 P" W. N) t$ R
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! n D' ]7 B' Gthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 j7 t7 A; J5 k2 m/ U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 s: ^7 Z! v* `$ U8 {8 p- b: Z- ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in h: X! s/ D! Q f/ ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at U' @ [0 A, E
historically depressed levels.
. T9 r$ {) c# G) j4 U( E ~ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 F4 Y9 I, w) y6 U" r
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 ^; ` @, u# d' p
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the U9 u( o) }2 ?0 H; u
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 n- k% [4 t9 I( L: |. }
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
. q# `+ u& W- Q8 a zmonths ahead," added Hogue.8 }/ f j4 u7 r9 t' G9 ^ {5 i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 j$ W1 w# l" Z8 q; ?cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary a/ T j9 H) A4 q. M; `! Z% ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 K0 W. {6 N9 p" Z, \
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% l- ^1 F9 w9 ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 v& Z0 M; _2 E0 Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 P7 P+ O6 o" D6 z1 q; f4 |2 Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 p. d/ B" Y( g6 L# J+ f, O The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# X* a' `0 I* cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property1 O9 H" X0 P) b# T
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 ]& {2 g7 P }including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) \/ J4 a: S$ \: O& k5 `& J
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 i k- `; {/ o$ b! S/ Z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' ^4 _$ f- o/ M7 z4 i! M& i# F0 E' }
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 508 r( H0 f# L+ v. K9 ~9 }1 M; I- `# [
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ ?7 V& d+ n. d" K1 N, \5 c/ Y9 u. I7 ^/ s
<<* R( ^. I3 F% F% N" ]) O3 d) s
Highlights from across Canada:
0 c7 R* P2 a1 M0 G6 A0 v; |! ?. L' b8 u0 v
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 E8 @9 N) u x: ~! N$ }0 \! z5 q& E intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 u; n+ b# K' P; R8 {6 T7 `4 n home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 W: T9 n5 k8 S$ a6 D1 y" r$ o3 d
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* p1 Q2 O9 m: j5 A+ c. | since about the middle of 2007.5 k( N {1 h/ T) _/ M
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the$ N+ ~4 [' {5 Z7 X1 a) S: B9 m, p
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 H4 p" O/ a) C, I. I- [4 T
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 Z" N( @+ ^$ s$ b) p) e6 a largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# E. p: ]5 E2 U- b8 q. L* e
poor affordability levels.
0 k$ w4 b; k. p/ u - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ V& b* \1 X' y3 r* l
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ U6 o/ T5 d+ J3 _9 \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
M1 d) P. {0 W% { Q8 B6 W- E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to ?& @, ~! q" A2 S
minimize any downside risks.
2 n3 m; [1 [- w - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 q; Y1 W6 i& ?
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& [+ o4 r* V! z0 c" _/ c unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
. t) \- ^, G* g# ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ ?, a4 M& J" U: R
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 h' I6 m$ z, o/ p( H" W0 ~1 Q
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& f" s) q+ Z9 X, o4 T Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 Z c7 \! D3 K: r
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 }7 V. e9 h: J, E' o* H1 E reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 ]. _8 |! u1 i/ q/ h
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 Z9 R7 C3 R1 y& n( W
modestly in recent years. V0 U2 y) A6 l$ f* a1 c
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ D+ k$ u/ G2 P- Z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* ?% C- n# p+ \+ ], B
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. g7 L. A# l+ X/ p8 M0 b0 R price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 e ]+ Y0 k+ M8 U1 Q
following two years of deterioration., V E2 Y- t1 W+ s
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