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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 p. ~( O* O( w" I1 \ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. ~& h+ y4 A5 U5 e/ c h! s6 l
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( u0 |2 b) a+ p- L5 w) Rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, K; \" L. T& v' _% Gaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 i0 ~: ~% v% Z9 I
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 A9 E4 [2 ?" n$ U& Y/ Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- u% o& z' \5 p! ?' nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
' |) c( \+ [* F/ G( q" Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. I' L5 E9 o7 X: S c, Y! {# o2 Q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" p) M# p, D* U7 h8 L
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
( {% i9 `+ E& awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" o0 O/ l( I, {9 bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! S+ J1 \$ h* E5 s5 l5 w
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 j; f# Y; d6 K1 g& m- o H" K& cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
) R3 J& K, X( {1 }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 D1 r0 \# E& h/ z2 Y; |0 S
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& Q, X. U2 n) d# Z2 D# kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 r5 J) N/ ?) z8 A$ x1 J0 A
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
; J/ U6 v# ]: b- j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 @6 p$ ?& e% m: tmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% u0 @, ^4 i* z& Ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: c5 D: g& x: k, M4 n" q+ _2 Phistorically depressed levels.
" }) l3 @9 V# E0 Y+ v Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, q+ ^ N6 P" Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 z6 X' _4 Z3 E$ Q6 i% l( zprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 W7 f% a- N, ^, O' Z: z6 I/ Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 L N. O+ E; |: e! K2 }$ z. v+ h; yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 v" l5 _- l# V- pmonths ahead," added Hogue.* |+ l; G5 g5 {( `
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 F- g4 h1 [ Q$ r7 [" _2 n) b# A* Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ b& u- y& n$ |1 I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& T) m3 H9 a- M& C
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 x2 {9 g' h9 F7 E
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, c' o! t. I& Y0 `$ ?+ ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 S! Z9 f% h1 `% I& y% C% V% p; [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' m/ J8 _6 D' g% } The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 p( V4 S$ A: }based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( x, G8 H# q/ M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, o6 \) @! z0 n0 Y5 `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! i9 X% s1 a* P) C4 N: Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& J# ~$ _( {7 e; M
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 D* a: v& U4 icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# v# {! _- s1 K
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: h9 X! c. ~8 [- b5 O8 V% @
9 O4 |$ `2 `* o8 C' j* _5 ^1 |9 d4 J <<! a# U! R9 r! y- M
Highlights from across Canada:
) X0 \4 r# w6 S8 w* K- H' K _% }
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) `9 e& ? `1 ~' ]+ [ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 F; X1 {! J6 U4 X9 t" u( z# W& k E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" [1 s& t5 X6 {. r" y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ @; g) h8 D) Y3 f" `+ m
since about the middle of 2007.
. K) O+ K9 H1 {! ^/ U: f - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" n" N, P4 o9 V7 s0 y) S7 \: C" F* w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
! ]* f6 l- [$ L1 x3 V+ Z4 N decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 V A! u! D8 G largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ q6 Z# |( s3 U- q poor affordability levels.
Y) ^3 ?2 x3 g( N: C7 } - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; E9 T. c! P" H$ C4 Y/ g+ R
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and, t: u( x6 _# Y# G0 k' d6 |; W% t
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 o7 k9 y& M( C Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' v4 f3 R2 i8 F3 ~* ^1 Q minimize any downside risks.! K# j; G/ {3 d/ y9 e
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
O5 W7 H) _" K conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) Z- M/ i# k( M4 t* c2 _) K5 i6 i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& X0 c. y* r% D e { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
7 J' c: z+ r* ~1 u, D being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ F/ O7 _! |$ C$ D8 ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 ]8 u5 P( ` y8 R1 `
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* U6 u+ Y @/ q* V S) q: X
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 d* h+ Z0 V. a( F: T4 Z0 |! v* P8 W3 q4 g0 T
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 ]0 D) K+ Z6 u, v* f& p4 X7 k0 E ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 l, N" A5 v! H
modestly in recent years.
! e9 W' W$ `2 x* ]9 t - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, k' v! B, d( z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; h, l. m: B" |9 C+ R7 t1 B
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# \. {3 ^9 Q, m5 F
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* A6 \$ e1 ~; w2 V following two years of deterioration., U6 a4 R/ X5 L' z* [# v8 C7 K7 |
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