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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; P; x" q3 `$ S6 X5 Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the7 `8 E; w8 B# H3 @
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- _. K* T: D( n$ `. K
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) n: Y m8 u" Q* o
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.' v1 _& z1 f, B. `/ U! L, j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( G) t7 X6 ]: M8 @2 V* P
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 L0 t z1 s2 h$ w) }. Uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 a/ D1 C" o4 _# W& O# ~! p2 [3 mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": Y) A1 r6 u- c7 _8 x1 q" `3 a
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is- W4 M; l; k& a( C
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 f3 r- a; v6 D# n4 n* Dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" w2 Q$ r/ A3 ~" R6 k! y* Usustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.- L/ t4 S0 q) _, I l
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ d2 n4 e7 a3 U& Zproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 z+ N; `- I8 p( V3 d# }
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& b- C7 I i) g! k( BAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the5 h6 J4 u/ Z9 D9 ]9 ^1 b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! J$ p' h, n! U# J/ |/ v& Z* Othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 B6 L) f$ w9 ]# D! w: v) O
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) O2 M" M6 m" R: f4 G* b4 c4 T
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 w/ G9 Y; A$ S! A4 I7 cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 T& N2 J3 C( C5 u7 J3 t" v; Ahistorically depressed levels.) _! D. l+ y6 p
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
1 I1 ?' L" Z% g! e& J9 M0 X* j+ t8 M+ oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House; K( ^, P1 @: }
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, d* @7 B- ^5 [- k; {
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
" `! a& Q/ |, o* aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; ]% ^* W# Q, A ?
months ahead," added Hogue.
4 i1 z9 G2 u, U7 I) M RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 O9 X2 ]# C5 D8 Scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ D: ]1 h) u6 T: j
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; b" a1 f& g) J6 I; [
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ b/ |0 r0 g, T" Na broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- h& m& {9 o5 s5 _0 ]cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* p$ \, P- F; P4 E, ]
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! z/ u8 ~. a' T) D9 E' R6 o" ~ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% B! ~3 k2 e4 p2 f) [; G: Kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% p! o: y- S7 j1 M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented8 M$ l9 L7 Q9 [9 \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# O' d' e- b) T, `+ Wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! P+ [" K# N1 [3 [' U
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& x& o1 ^9 H5 x6 N. u- X0 h
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
$ N- y) d" U# @- {% N3 R: C/ |' Jper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 ?5 c9 F* j, J
1 {( L2 I; q; G7 q <<6 ^5 j$ `! }5 R# l0 Z- o
Highlights from across Canada:
) L- f6 N3 ~' [ b6 V$ y" e
( s: Q' _# ~; ?3 v: r" N8 B - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( d, b* ? K1 T8 p6 H1 U/ v% ~
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 b% j' n8 R% i$ K
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 _: o4 `4 n/ _4 ~8 m$ x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, _& e0 {7 S4 F; q
since about the middle of 2007.9 l- `9 z6 E1 [, O- W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
( G/ Q: `( `0 B5 t7 A8 } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: x: D! J1 U' f decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- w- R; ^' o: R% x( L; r r largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 D& E7 J$ j$ T% Z4 T poor affordability levels.; M7 P, V' E) z
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the. d* a$ }) F5 r, i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' y3 j6 m) R; X prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# v& A+ @) {3 W6 V1 J1 H' {, W& F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! B5 N2 I! A5 ]* i' ~8 C minimize any downside risks.4 D7 ] m1 z. W) f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& _; T2 ?& ~' |$ N, T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' ~) w% l4 H/ G" c" \; N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& _1 W s ]* s4 q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
, _0 ^8 a* ^ t0 {; u7 A, W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ J3 f6 f; h& `
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 o" R: i2 l0 k4 D7 _6 N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 V3 g* Z/ r( P b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* T! f3 ]6 A8 b3 @6 _ Y% Q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' m* q- p5 n. j2 z# y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 j" t, W: R/ _" |& e4 s; j5 u modestly in recent years.2 W R5 \8 d& F, o
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) C' b, p% C! {- |* b
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# E7 ^- c! k( S& l! ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
d6 Q+ `; Y, A/ V9 ^ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
b* z0 U/ d& F3 B# _5 r: x5 Z following two years of deterioration.- t: F- T0 M, R |) P C' ~
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