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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ l' Z: W T" \4 @ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ `! a z0 M5 f6 R. T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 O7 M. N4 O: u) E G6 A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! w5 [) Y& u( z; _& e0 D2 L9 o
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 b$ ~" C# s _. j( ] I# n "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 X3 _* b+ W/ t N" j
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
2 f8 v, M8 ?9 i. }: U/ zimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* s2 u/ n+ M. Y) i9 W
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; p4 R. a3 L+ W0 c1 h$ p RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& L0 ^" [5 ?, W: u! r3 Z1 o) | Qworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 `$ T' j2 G5 c" O* X3 x: {9 E* Z, G$ nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ `( _3 U# q6 j4 o/ v) W- l
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' w9 Z9 q0 }% [% | The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 m0 D w1 a8 Q, ^$ P% m. D; r
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 q3 c: D, W" i9 Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. P% @8 L, v. _0 L* Q
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: q' m+ w; w& b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 F/ q5 o; z/ `+ R! `3 t! l+ v
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 N& p2 H. C) k- r' g4 a) V9 a7 e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 N J( h4 q0 y) t& }5 h3 I; k$ \may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in C- m5 N, C9 c& u) v) r# K& ^
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 S5 J6 l# B+ U* A- ?" ahistorically depressed levels.1 O3 d' Q+ x! I d# V' D: u: P
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost( W+ S3 ?) `& b0 H. F: A
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 M8 C- b |- \5 R& xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ x, b1 f: N/ [9 ?% w: `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# h. N+ s, q a7 Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ g1 e. p. G+ J! f% @months ahead," added Hogue.& m! w) D; l5 r; T: M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 p5 v. H A' lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) b: a3 g4 j0 K1 O* z# g; z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.% N8 z4 Z, q* n+ j. n/ a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 w- ]5 G' U; D X3 Ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
" h/ v9 y' N- Y" C; Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 z$ O/ @' R4 c8 `' Z
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: \8 v. l! l5 ~. b
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# B W! a+ B. ?, ?5 a4 I1 J. i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ d8 W2 m- U6 c
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ x2 l, s" q3 k
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& E5 F/ X4 y, bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.- E5 n" m9 G" r3 s1 k
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) U8 u: N0 i1 t$ q' _- S# Gcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50: L4 T& M6 t4 z9 m. |) q6 f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ Q, e) N) s. _# @7 r/ R5 x4 V( ~7 X t, I l# f& ~
<<
+ Z. D6 D+ l! {+ o* f8 L Highlights from across Canada:: g2 W9 s- @# }! v2 F* c
& P3 c$ Z d7 {5 | - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ a+ u+ r3 f0 d; l: l3 Y8 ]% B
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 \& `, b& M% l9 y1 v6 e3 T* d. J+ ^
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" i2 W/ |1 [8 G% Q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 r$ l$ X% O8 E2 T' {
since about the middle of 2007.
. ]! `0 U* }( r. O2 k, J4 A. b' W - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! z0 u: Q# z- Q" ?3 c
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# N2 O" h+ h1 S! n
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' L$ ?3 l; }4 e# v0 V largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* J5 ]) _# h1 X' C u1 x1 O/ y$ d
poor affordability levels.
+ N6 O6 y3 Q+ n# J9 q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% _) n, C( C# K" u5 e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and i* r: K* y" k6 H# f! p8 L* a6 V
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! ]1 W$ r k8 h) b; J( m" ^
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
0 k/ s' f. b6 q6 h- ?3 z minimize any downside risks.: |5 y' |5 N6 I0 X4 k
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
I1 g6 P$ Z; Q% g4 L conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 g3 R w+ M2 g. a2 ^+ _. r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% m, f- s+ H2 X4 n 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) z+ ^ i1 u# W, X. ]. b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 ^8 c4 Q8 A9 m* V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ I* [: g2 c' j$ |8 {1 ]* Z
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' o; ?5 Z9 @. u( w1 E# ~ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" [7 z' r& {4 G- {% k6 @ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 {3 b; d7 u$ Q) ?- q% z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 F) V5 H+ _- F1 x3 e
modestly in recent years." ^! N) P: `" R$ }3 A+ q u1 M+ n# K
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 f+ G) H7 K2 D2 j/ Q ^
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
S* B1 P2 f: c2 W) C+ S# ?$ K spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ D! a' q& T+ W6 y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( {" t: D, q. u) N
following two years of deterioration.
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