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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 ?/ \) A3 h! D3 F4 W7 c4 d
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 |+ m4 ^5 |* P9 t# S
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; C6 Y# Y+ `# A2 K9 I4 z: ?
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! Y' J; K; a+ S7 `3 v8 J. c; Q8 J
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- ~' s5 U9 e U6 ~" }1 a' E "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 z) N, a" e! L% G% J/ P; ^4 ksaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# z) X* k2 D9 I8 H- a3 aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 V$ t3 M! s! V# J% M% {4 u/ xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 _3 y1 I% G9 N3 P& c- T RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ m1 L: B, m0 B6 w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 m- U6 H; _& k. ]8 L# }which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' ?8 s+ {4 C; ^" b8 Msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' ]4 t1 B+ w' M& s6 y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# S: u# L3 W1 i Jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 q$ u; z; E! i* P3 Z! `& _
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ [+ T# R) g% m) W
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" z# W6 t O- J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" d, K: x' \5 b* ?. |the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 Y& C4 B8 y8 y8 t( e8 Q6 T5 Z* ` According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 X( i2 [, O$ ]& F) E
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' ~9 c: _9 i2 C; h, c. p& pthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# }9 [: F t, R! R
historically depressed levels.
# T+ Q2 c4 D0 I& @4 ]% Z! u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 I* [5 ^. f/ f& tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 q# \7 J7 ?( T( r8 @5 B# g
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 b7 r, W) w1 @ o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This1 S7 C0 ]& Z& I0 c2 Y4 j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' M; u6 d2 Z o7 _% X
months ahead," added Hogue.
; i& e+ j. o" j( s* H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 I9 [* j8 j: M1 R; N% T+ Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& ]9 K6 C& |5 e
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ J$ F2 [8 K' ~# C The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 p- D: |6 A% c- [0 S& q& I; qa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) Q2 f! Q ?( H1 A8 p) K$ f5 p
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 h5 U& p9 D, u: b* o- U* |, ]takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.. o! E! u7 r R" i: D' n
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 z1 w6 \" ~) J
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: F k3 G. Z( m' t, m2 ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 {' U/ w1 s5 o+ ^% w* @
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 q5 O+ t {5 V; ?+ Econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( r% p. B9 W" A0 `1 y1 q+ L
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! W6 \( W1 S* x: S1 f9 E
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 d5 C) m# G" s. _" u |! Z7 |
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 W" i. t* X' C% `# p6 t9 z7 }. i0 V' P8 _: s, `
<<
8 D- x3 ^8 d3 v9 A7 ?+ [ Highlights from across Canada:/ Y* E+ u- B% k: \2 S# I
3 S4 j) m8 H2 A/ y! ~8 m4 p. H' b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 h% r7 }& N# ~+ s$ d7 v intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ g6 E: ~; |" U home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ k6 a# H. \6 i3 c/ M) M- ]% i' U9 r: B
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! f: `# x9 ~0 l& O( C since about the middle of 2007.
8 g+ k3 t6 d4 t - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) X+ [" j) W7 p4 Q6 y+ g
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 y" ~- R2 ^9 |/ e6 M
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still8 n" Z7 X% T4 F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: O9 S7 Y3 Q# a poor affordability levels.; T! k4 _; w+ L$ ?
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the5 `, y6 z1 o- l+ E
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% v! [9 U- A+ _& O2 T
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: P }2 D9 J8 V2 B* j8 x; r Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# I$ Z) B3 g; e- R* L; C8 V
minimize any downside risks.7 j. w9 c* @- i4 w
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ m" o9 a8 n$ B h; h! Y* a8 e2 S conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) c; a7 K: }& N+ l
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* r3 p' z( ]1 G( r+ i0 ~7 b 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 |% v- ]& {2 b( M* ?2 `
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) ~( u2 X3 v3 `7 r5 O
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ r, N0 J& W S5 x Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! F9 {7 S; T1 I5 R' C2 J+ ?
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 K- D/ T+ K; D2 W5 ~9 {
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be" O3 G5 h, o( s5 n5 U5 q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. V) D& \ g; c0 T- {# }% ^5 U
modestly in recent years.
# L* j4 a# E* Q: j/ R e - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! g3 [+ V" O+ r" [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% l" `* p( g" E6 | spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% _2 N7 R( A$ A1 ^( @: ~- h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability% R# Y5 x& o' j, ^, T9 h) j4 V
following two years of deterioration.0 M0 I, r& ]' P) ?, g
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