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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & K4 L( A* l4 O! `) T4 a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# m# Q" ]* [6 r/ q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive5 ~) ^/ V! w8 @$ M
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( g/ P$ q; t# c ^! n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- ]+ A% J2 Z% T; s! T "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 N4 ]$ |4 j; w5 o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 O0 f4 I: B/ X3 L. v7 g8 A
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! {+ t9 O% D# q% v) \2 u
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# l7 w/ z1 V# U8 W5 K! ^
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ [: y6 m7 L. O6 e6 oworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 ~0 k0 i% G! H7 P) U
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ P6 `+ L" z4 Y
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 g1 _5 q5 b" \! S- i' w# S The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the( w- @, N) D; U9 x! e. b3 z( U, I( ~
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( G) y3 I: B5 r& c& S! T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 \" I/ @2 e2 V: R7 r% \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# ]0 w: y6 F" Q2 d$ p/ U0 i
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" |; y8 N8 d7 C8 `5 p E! r/ e; L3 _the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ K- r6 ]) B, ^/ x/ I5 [, C
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ u, E) h: f/ f1 v, k; V) Y+ Jmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' ^3 u1 n- B0 ` E: T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 Y2 W# S! I: o% I6 N
historically depressed levels.1 O* y9 G$ l) C- p8 C/ D
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# o {/ |7 |- d) B3 rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' i8 g; @1 L. H: o4 c, Y* \
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ E; d. B& j2 t4 G6 e( `: L4 O G
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: y/ E, l% n+ }/ O
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 s ~6 X X# y7 z _months ahead," added Hogue.
. h% e- \- y- p( l RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 M( s8 `: t9 Q" C+ M6 m" `5 icities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' s7 q( J/ O; b5 ?# _+ T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* z3 c/ F2 A6 L( a The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; }. k8 E! x ]. P/ W: b0 F
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these s3 T9 _" S6 r4 r% f3 j6 Q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 K. b" ?$ e: j* S. x/ G, A; _takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 u+ X0 s: H! w7 g; ^& L
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* x, N* Q7 n G8 L
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 ~* l9 E) m( ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented& A$ @1 Y4 H0 i$ S6 j H" ^
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% v' n! {. Y) G" p% ^) i! o* v: x
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 O+ K8 ]+ P# T0 |% V0 k1 o+ U8 p
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# V( v) g6 }: Y) L% p$ K# g+ S8 ~costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- _# e- k3 O7 J& xper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 x8 W8 F# K, j1 p n
9 D7 r: d" c) M6 O1 j/ R
<< d7 h7 l2 E$ B5 N
Highlights from across Canada:* ^1 d3 j8 q% G1 M5 @9 S0 O$ B% F
4 q7 Y3 l! Q7 ?# \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* v2 O6 { D3 p6 P j2 X intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# N% y, F; R: Y2 Y) [ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound5 \! ^3 Y" m1 d' N+ y* t4 `& R
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 h C$ F& e9 F0 H# U3 J since about the middle of 2007.# u+ S1 r7 v3 f+ j( H+ a
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( y! M: E( p" h9 K9 {, i
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ p s0 v) p# P+ R& k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
g2 S) x( M+ T+ j0 B+ H& U largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( k1 k$ l0 i2 H: n+ q( ^ poor affordability levels.
0 _1 S- _+ @( p }5 _* J - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ ~ F1 E: `) G+ A( Z2 I& U+ ]7 I7 a vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 }2 u4 z+ q! x" U. w- W* N prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! P, u' ]1 {, ?8 _+ {
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( C1 L9 l8 @ |* |( {; g8 [ minimize any downside risks.5 m) c! Q( V) z" ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' @/ L3 {# c4 Y/ l1 J/ v+ x v conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ K, N* ~) N) e2 V unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" _/ V( e0 _+ k3 C& ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. z8 I& S9 l7 C% v* ?6 I
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' r! o: W& X: ]$ y% ?% ? - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' g' B5 w9 |8 i7 j/ \+ v, J7 f# U Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 W4 e4 e) Q5 T7 B/ c* K& M/ n" S
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- X0 h7 R# b3 k2 q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 L( M- P/ z8 ?% G- b2 M* {8 e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
4 \/ w+ U/ Z9 @) C modestly in recent years.: H. J: l u) a$ ]6 Z! O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
5 a- Z$ D+ y7 o) D. B, C general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) n0 Y, s' Y% R. b; _7 O spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 L8 A& @ C' @6 J+ c
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) n4 g: _. ~5 y% l6 \, Y
following two years of deterioration.
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