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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 D5 s+ {5 E7 q0 s& i# D& _2 S/ q TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 W5 W" y, {& m" n1 v. |/ T& n0 Z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# H1 ^4 G1 h8 ~; q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( f1 E$ B9 F1 z7 d/ Yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.$ J. a5 X t7 S d+ d
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," T- p6 V0 I8 e3 S
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" G2 G* b7 I% J. M
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ \8 b$ b1 {" J* E _
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" t- W& b+ O% M8 a; |0 q0 h, ] RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 f" H+ N- t5 o: W2 j' P, q4 h1 ]" lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# \. Z. q( \/ [8 {6 b$ u
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! |6 Y7 D. R! O! s1 b% U! {. ~sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" b3 \7 C% Y1 ` The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* ]# w. U5 z ]5 s% gproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- R' Q$ @( Z+ h/ Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
( h% C8 E ^. a" X, bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 B E V _7 u* D1 A' v/ Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ j; S% g" z. h5 R( X/ k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 ~2 U. K; U, A) T; M' o According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( c! @% Q+ o7 {: C. S- |& i
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
Y$ J( q: j2 T" q& D/ \3 Zthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- W3 R% p0 E0 H' A( U+ j( C- G0 @historically depressed levels.2 ~/ `# b" m" t v6 W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: C8 d7 C* j# j% P: V
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 |3 P& Q# B4 R: L* v9 [/ F' aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 ?6 m$ Q* L9 \9 @. K8 U
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, _. M& b8 ?( I3 y7 M
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- M+ Q4 T R7 I* N- [
months ahead," added Hogue.
$ g; T: q6 k+ n+ w( H7 i/ q. { RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
* F& i/ I) J' _" Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
( z7 X7 x6 [& ^6 O% M$ @3 d- Z42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.! X% K! p5 H; ]" ~1 h& ]
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" s( x8 y J: Y6 B$ I- ]
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, N1 ~# u+ I8 j3 u5 vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 T6 r- n, f+ c1 @% J$ ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* U+ H) ~* y. Q! s* ~ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
) w v- \ h2 _9 |. f( S+ {/ ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ n8 A: h$ Z# X# R; |+ o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% _3 S7 O$ x+ E0 f/ e( T" m/ Nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 h- x0 f5 [$ M5 u* v' C) N. j$ bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* S) G' S. T2 I+ t! @8 k _
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ |0 c5 o! e" Q/ {costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 I0 ~& N% X* _
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 {6 ?( t' D; G G$ W4 Y' O# H' Z" A6 L# A# @! {: l' x! z6 [
<<
: U7 L. o1 |, Q8 F- m9 v3 }- H Highlights from across Canada:/ o7 ^- U' m8 P: E+ I( W% _
* f$ ~# _+ a2 t* p( g8 O - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# _" J* C, m( q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 i2 a# u/ F" ~/ |& Z! w6 I/ [3 ~' a
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! x: p0 z& g* V only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 S$ ^0 C5 ]$ G
since about the middle of 2007.
# z- E3 f- c% j [! y, [* u3 s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
* q6 Z7 A; s- c6 M. k frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) X6 v4 S% W5 J1 z/ b/ {
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% t$ v, N" @( `9 i ? largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely" a% e/ t) P# m, A
poor affordability levels., M' a" _/ t H; g# u' r, O
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ ?5 E1 W. |# @2 T# P vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& d) X1 q/ i* d! T* Z4 S$ S( z! \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 M2 t/ T7 e9 A2 g Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ q o& J- w+ O
minimize any downside risks.
' o7 j1 @, t0 L+ h6 n - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market5 Y; U3 @" ?( o/ p* ]$ F
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& q' G; _5 i& ^. P, l+ N& Q2 ?+ j9 W
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
. `( ?8 U* M. l J- \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% g1 U2 A) H9 C3 V. n
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 H. u: D/ w" j9 X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ }. V9 B+ W# T& o
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. h4 @! ]" ]) p. A* z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 N h$ ?, w; c; X* f: n
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ F& H9 L: G( o, A ~9 D& T% o$ w+ P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" ? s, j0 u# J! {
modestly in recent years.
- b* G+ ~4 ? D2 }) ?+ g! U9 Q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
2 O4 I+ p# h/ Q: I4 e general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 @# v5 M8 c# o! O9 { spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& a& h' }- @! }8 G1 C1 r0 b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 d7 N: F( u" u0 S! H
following two years of deterioration.
2 j! g' Z. t7 |4 C$ r% G6 P8 m @; j >> |
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