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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; P- X: F" F# `0 p9 x TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: }) V! v( {( j; ?' `; Y% bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& |% ]" X* i# T3 Q1 P `
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 M6 t* G8 A0 R1 Y! Oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( \2 r* x! _% X2 J9 C; s# z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 N$ V4 \4 c. \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 h. H: O8 T+ B4 w; m: `4 Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 P3 Y1 F; ] c1 S; t+ cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% X0 ?9 y( _: b3 x6 w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; y- p2 m) O3 ^2 C' k, P4 vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& B# X; {8 V$ M8 V/ Z9 Iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! z* ~! J2 `8 `4 qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- w2 G& _ ^( d3 s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ k5 }: b5 I' ~9 `- C: Xproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 _# l; ^6 @! v$ i; n8 l) P4 l
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: H# R ?5 u0 Y9 }: S9 x' KAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* h/ k; K, C9 ~) j) a& U/ ^
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 L6 K( V0 E* @5 l# J' Y, L% v4 \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent./ A# l% \( w! u
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
5 H9 }# \1 @ E0 x& gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ ]0 o& M4 j, F: X- q; w' zthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 u, j0 K/ ?- ^) Y! ^9 P% |8 g$ A
historically depressed levels.& S- `& J6 T# N) e2 s. }8 X* h9 N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) Y, H7 i& b9 V
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& M9 }$ V' _' M! j4 p6 ^6 \
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% l6 n% ?- u- V( R3 L9 Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: e7 ?8 n( `0 i8 `7 ~# menormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the+ N! J- s7 C8 E' ]4 E; }
months ahead," added Hogue.
6 P* m' W0 v& M$ U( Y' [# w6 a* s RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' Y+ ]8 x- }8 q% M
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 V% y" N, E7 [( h3 J; D$ e
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 [% W: X: g% a9 ~) L& q& ]" a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 s9 [- S! ^. ~8 E& T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these5 N N# ?- E- R2 _6 \' r3 W u( p
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, H; A$ b! _/ K$ [takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) J# [' A Z- ?" } The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- b. `% w" `( Z0 hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ R9 n8 Y# ]1 Q
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, b1 `1 r9 T+ M9 R0 t$ X* P* @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 J7 t/ |4 W8 T. F. Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 ^' i) O( k" D& B- T2 a9 ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- G! R0 r6 {: x1 X0 ] W
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% i7 w" ]$ a: ~1 L+ uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income. p. q, w. W/ u. V1 L$ P
9 \5 g! P2 c- p# h6 M
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3 a& ]: J2 O8 R' J# c4 {, e" O Highlights from across Canada:
! R* _ X" D# k; D$ D Y
7 x% q5 R( X. y' s. _, Z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 ^: W, P. V) Z( Z7 E
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 b$ A# Y, T. @ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 |6 F& v3 F" i: G* V9 B, {9 z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
% h5 a& R+ \$ @: v2 X) {4 O K since about the middle of 2007.6 f9 R. t) U: d; w/ P6 d5 ~
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the6 I+ @: y. l9 T
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 l) }1 p* g; q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
+ J9 F/ B0 ~/ {5 O$ W' C largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# r/ u5 ^, h4 F. \ e0 c h* L
poor affordability levels.+ m- K9 r% J( H# D5 Z7 I
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the, }% U B" f9 o0 t: ^5 F
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" s. }4 G/ j: R6 q; P prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% y7 _) e1 Z% T; [+ c5 H Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( D- e! K/ _0 X: O' ^ minimize any downside risks.
1 n! U2 |+ S- y9 W/ c) d. O6 S1 H - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market \3 C5 j# B$ X& {/ X N
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 z/ D5 @% A4 U6 s4 y1 V3 p
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& U" H4 e; P5 G% _- L5 I 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ j) V! E' H, ~- P being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 u) T( K# d+ g }3 H8 o% @ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- C8 _; M2 r w( T/ K+ i1 |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- B/ F; z7 v7 S1 F7 x
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. \7 w( S/ \: h( ], V. @ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ N; k2 n, r. t+ ?* k; I$ w ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 O" Q- f" U- e) T5 ]: H modestly in recent years.
# l7 P0 V2 ^' W& y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
9 u: I4 U- _9 c7 v( l- l/ a general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 ^2 G( A8 G& T5 b' v) @/ K. t spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 g3 g' a3 u- R price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: Y. c9 c6 q0 b& V: b e following two years of deterioration.
0 f& v0 G& F: o$ x3 y0 X. Q >> |
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