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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, n5 {5 g: `3 M/ I3 p6 ^ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the q) A2 ?% L2 Z9 s! T4 h
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 N& h5 e, Q p4 ^, J% |gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ _# X% J/ G" [, _) Z! {& |according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
n, t* P: R, V) ]; b7 M9 }6 n "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) @- k9 z% G3 [+ M5 [said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 ~- [8 F! w0 l4 Simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 i- ^4 u% J' n. |8 s' ?9 q# Bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."* e2 c. M+ O6 {7 n3 U8 h
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 ?$ Y* ~9 G) D: E# W3 e `0 ^' ?
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# R6 z$ Q, O$ U6 ?which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, `5 J5 X+ d4 n
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' Q& M) N. O- q N8 i Q! g
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. }; n* ^" s) `& v' M7 H4 Qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 p$ i8 F; p% e+ Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 L' c/ Z/ ^$ c9 x$ L* CAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ v# \, H8 _# z; G( g8 }standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ i# R' Z1 X6 Y/ g' W. e
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. C' M' ^$ l; ]( ~4 I According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* E1 ] f% I) n/ k4 m9 b
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- Z" q8 S6 ^& S+ J& N
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 I0 [3 j4 ?5 M: Thistorically depressed levels.' x& \$ ?+ d+ N0 K* |0 f3 C2 d
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ F5 i$ a# W, v; t$ F4 R+ o
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ k7 l* Y3 w8 m3 a" M3 R! I$ a; iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 n* C2 @+ I0 e( c& f/ z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) Y1 W9 C4 v5 t5 F- p; p) G1 denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& w1 K( I6 _* X @; x3 V( J% d
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 |9 i/ c+ b3 Y$ M/ n8 q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 ]: C2 C+ w; d
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary/ p5 ]) M& X" k. `/ P, Z& l
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 d C5 f. C$ f( ]2 e+ Y0 j% w8 A The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* C) v% S. s, e" X
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& o1 \' P8 C3 t& B6 M) k' ^cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, h, o7 u z9 g8 z9 q* atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& V* C/ E! S, M The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; y! O: s' {! t2 k: M# |based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property a" L$ G O/ }" |
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ D& E' V# d+ g) \including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( x: Q+ ]& Q4 |" ^$ Ucondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.- ^+ H/ D. @& ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 w0 q+ x3 K2 G
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; H% b# Z8 x9 F0 E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- |9 S; w, }; W" K0 F. q0 m3 \- E& {7 N% I6 l, V1 Q
<<+ t/ h, B; ^# x' e t( Q
Highlights from across Canada:
2 _% U' ], D* O9 X' I7 i. P4 g
% `' O: ^$ Z8 n8 u, p - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( L+ ^ k0 O5 a" z( x
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 l! x- e# q- _7 ~( M5 O home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 R$ E4 X' z# J5 i# N) i
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 E4 G1 s3 M3 A" I since about the middle of 2007.
* g7 y) l7 L2 R1 Y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# K0 h; ?- j) \4 T9 P3 y+ |
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; ~3 t2 m; w$ F$ J: z
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. [" s- s5 ]6 |6 o; r4 D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, U9 `7 h& Z6 c* z! E0 Q7 j poor affordability levels.
# V- s; A2 ~& D" d! b1 r - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the7 R. A( P9 x5 M7 V! y* z9 A
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 D% T" e7 Z- P7 x) H
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; z) l7 e) D9 D
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 v8 e8 v( r* o) j5 a minimize any downside risks.
! f1 f$ o$ z) E9 ?, L - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! K! B; q* _5 k, w& y3 G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* [; b# ]/ w; W unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ w$ m% _6 Y; a- D# I2 M 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; y4 L1 o( M# |: Z$ u- g5 h7 J0 U4 } being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
]9 h) x9 }" t3 G6 t* v - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 {. u. U6 A* ?- b
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
O' _! B# o3 m3 r9 K. O8 a far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ D+ e; q# z# c1 a( d
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 P X4 T2 @ F" s# s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ T8 u J. Y) W: d- H Z
modestly in recent years.
. H( {4 u9 T4 k5 ?; T( t1 y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. P! N9 N6 o5 v4 Q: d3 z8 L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 s! l# U- }4 A6 R8 f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 A! U% R; Q4 v/ e+ \" o1 e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ |7 B/ U; T3 s- C/ L9 o" E following two years of deterioration.
, b$ R( L) `) Z. S' }5 c >> |
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