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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ Q! _; k/ r( t2 a4 w TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( D' ^1 _' d/ N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! M4 e* A$ i: K& F% Xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 Q8 h$ H. {5 K* x0 l
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, O" L% o4 b! r) y0 U( q' D "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( d0 }6 R( h( r2 f' e6 V2 W/ d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# u0 J9 W4 o- timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! ~, D% d6 i' Y) i+ X: Tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" U* b4 P/ j( x# j7 Z3 ~" w) p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 O, l2 s6 A. X: ^) E7 yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 g8 Q3 z" J9 H! z) R: ?* U0 r
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& \& O* f3 T; X2 F2 ]* G
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 ^. f1 \# n1 M& W# A. P5 N# @. e! J
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 Y; P3 ]1 C) n/ k m/ iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 F p ?2 i, j( u( c" V# h- |home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- z" d1 d4 b+ P2 Z5 R( EAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 J' x( ^7 [6 @7 \. }' T4 l: sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; C2 @7 R+ V" M, ^
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! ~" A+ h2 @( Y3 k9 p
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ e# c, e5 R. m: ~1 m% lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 L' A" `% p, F) r% m
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 M1 }5 L6 N$ G: j2 j& H
historically depressed levels.
3 `& G- d/ a6 Q- g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ z6 y: Z: @) t' `1 nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ u. R+ b) O6 R/ Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) ]% X6 L: `. ^! M3 {
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 h' w9 F: p8 Q/ G) E: q3 genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
3 _$ L* p8 e4 L- Vmonths ahead," added Hogue.3 i# W: e# ]) @
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) G. k/ x. S. Q U4 U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
' {# K5 M' D* Q" G42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ z$ r& ]6 X, J. ~. q t
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' |3 F6 X; a3 q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 K, A% K4 s* r0 gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* m/ a8 }" U2 t2 A+ k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 w) ^- l1 M% {2 p% b$ }$ D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ Y3 d; d" J1 D* k% m1 pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 S) x& I4 \: F) `/ `benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 U* H. P. \: @: }) i% i Pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 j5 H8 c5 ~- J8 [2 S7 s* M% lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- V( K# E( ^' e' {$ }( T- ]0 oFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
$ @$ X% F* N* ~) [costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 x! K/ }5 {8 C3 `( H, h+ {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 d% b' M; E, K! L ?; H2 D8 }
" A6 R1 W/ }0 `/ ]# A <<( |5 ]$ ~+ K) E) l6 J+ J
Highlights from across Canada:
; i" [9 j6 R: e* q
, f" G+ U5 ?" X ~$ T5 W: }' K+ ]5 V - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has# u. l* ?) W/ r' p& Z! S! |7 r* P
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 z- l! J- b: n; p0 Q9 `
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' V- i5 F9 {, c( @; [* {
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
, [4 t' g4 H4 i since about the middle of 2007.
1 U _( R; y* a# N# T; s+ h - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- }7 q9 h' _ T" T' n- @: i0 O frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, z! T+ o9 I' _8 _! ?6 |/ i5 u
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) P! A# R" |8 [) Z9 u: E
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* P6 R1 M+ T3 ?( n1 R5 k. G poor affordability levels.) n8 `, c: \4 W7 [$ G" \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- ]- j0 I7 Y% f" b. J
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 H- x' a/ b+ }# i) k* ] prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ n# Y! w6 f) C. O! N4 R9 V Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' C9 S$ f" t# m
minimize any downside risks.$ l/ P% f, U9 e; p/ u% V
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; B" K/ h- P% p3 i; D- R4 r conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 F* O% ]' f: q7 P
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( Z" ~- _2 M9 @
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly j z4 O0 v( a( G
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% P! U# N* {$ ?! O - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% ?# P- m0 K& T2 u( p" _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- B i0 C" C* X5 ~* U- U
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- b6 G; U1 ~/ ^; d
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 G2 I; w3 |) H! T6 Q4 O3 [# r5 \( P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% j2 m& n. V. s* d8 F) Z0 J6 t modestly in recent years.
1 }4 s3 N: W/ {1 l- A1 U1 Z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the O. U- _& E. u
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 [, ~+ F! G# Q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 s8 r- y: \. G+ _
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& o* A( u2 X8 }$ b& l6 E
following two years of deterioration.* O3 F7 h4 s$ o/ k8 j7 k" b% C- t! g7 S( t
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