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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 }* u( W6 W: S7 ]5 e TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& H5 w3 |. \( D! i8 j' U* |+ `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ c+ s h/ D" Zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 p Y p( x) A6 r
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 S% C; F3 D5 Z/ F: E8 j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ l! e. I" C' J& K
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
0 a0 [& }5 {* t m' _improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, T* B% g! F) G6 M) Smeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
K- i( e+ B( D2 [0 \- ]# B4 p' i RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 l2 s9 d g: f5 `+ I' D' S8 |
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 ^; Y& t6 H- B" s( M# B7 T
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 M, H$ Z+ H& Y# {' i
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* X! p: E1 ~) q# r3 o! `! n! ~+ D The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) ?1 A+ U* ?, d6 k
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! t9 D% e" u+ V, h, [
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) O. Q7 L& q1 e3 p& V( G
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the5 \9 y7 R: S+ c- F8 @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 P+ u2 ]8 V" l$ ]! h) j/ e, B
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 Z/ a1 v% e# m) Y r. ]+ e9 ^# ~: E
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* i& M7 A! N2 s8 U( U* K
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 ^3 E# W( O: L T% `* N' q) K# Kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 g2 v# `4 |* z, O
historically depressed levels.
( Y6 w" |+ o' G, X" V$ Q3 B Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! j" l2 P3 z6 B/ d5 p; H8 Gof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& Q4 @0 V/ {+ L& Bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( L" R% R9 e2 n* \. l
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 H1 L4 ^2 l# [3 x- menormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% x. v: g) u ?; n" M
months ahead," added Hogue.( ^4 l/ {" S) a6 x. ]- c! g2 K( x" w
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
6 H2 G5 y, X1 L# U: ncities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% t5 i7 p. l g. @: J42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 s9 e: ~: K \8 l$ \6 `( U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ q: d+ y" K$ ?; B. z. z# ha broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 s3 j0 P* H2 h) G2 n7 V
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 L5 u# k( j8 y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% X0 x/ T+ ^1 J o9 {# H The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% A. w+ z& t, l4 e. h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& e3 i$ @$ A; J% S. F
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, g3 Q2 F' L3 S
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 V! p" v1 k9 T' b5 a. w e4 O
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.' b3 {6 U5 ^+ G
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 Z- F$ Q' X4 w2 i3 o& a( j7 V3 F
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; q% V A4 l5 P* T% Sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
) s1 j/ R; T: U1 a/ J% w( @
. `) K: j0 v9 A6 {4 N# F& v1 f <<
6 i7 E4 j& C- b/ h Highlights from across Canada:( {$ o, x6 s$ Q5 V8 e% g* }
4 J4 P; J8 l n$ L - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ ?' [ b2 X$ X+ {9 I% y7 n. E6 @* K! F intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 ~( ?0 v% @+ V
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 Q% j" f" Z, {* m9 b: J- N. E$ a only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 r- N- {$ j% l: p4 A/ ~ since about the middle of 2007.
, F4 Q) w6 k3 S4 m/ H- N$ {( \ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% }. U: q J) d2 R# m frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) B5 E3 ^: t2 ~" ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 j# R4 N' t+ S6 X, G7 F$ l1 `; P& g largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 s) A1 Z1 B8 M poor affordability levels.' ]0 D, w( G$ H1 P9 |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ C. V8 c# M$ I4 m' ]* e, f V
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and$ C8 R L2 V& [3 |5 r9 _8 Q7 Q+ \1 h
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! w) E, O$ o2 L) A1 g$ K* k Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( x0 m0 c( R8 L
minimize any downside risks.
- C" D0 @9 B+ }, ]5 o, Z - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& s% K r" o9 t, ]; R conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 I- N+ F) C: J! n" y/ z# \, _ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 |. ]. x& }' J2 f" `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 C9 `# V+ ]8 n6 r
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 y$ F. \/ q% V% O5 y- I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 U4 D/ L3 G' H& o4 @6 N% Z" [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 }9 ~+ {, _' f/ p7 D0 L far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
^. P" ] v5 ~6 B/ I" m. B- l reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be% O4 M; k& h" F3 N! ^6 F
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only @# z8 l) D2 c: C) L/ w# r
modestly in recent years.
+ _( [0 s3 ?! E1 }- a& A - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 u1 t9 z% B+ N6 B8 n1 I
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% G7 z( w1 K0 q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% ]; E1 ] v. `6 B- P
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- f, l* A+ p: m- w/ ?0 i7 z! U following two years of deterioration.8 b0 v1 u& D) A% g% @9 M
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