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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC H- }" J |+ B4 f8 i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 a3 w' T# K o7 D
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* H3 f4 }& n+ I- ?" R
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 r' J5 G% ?9 u3 T' Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 T3 k% e! D0 {9 t "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 ?' ]' s% X- O- W3 x+ O0 ?! l/ t
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 L- e/ w& U; G, N. L5 x) E3 u% H
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" X' Q) `4 j6 K; b
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; ]7 p$ ^( }/ w4 J RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ U a$ Y; Z) a0 k$ v
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! j4 k6 y- c$ Dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 c3 ^/ y' s: Y% esustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" g; r$ A% s8 I4 M# ]6 e6 H The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 N, G' R& i/ C+ { ~0 Sproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- n4 c ]9 E: y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ w7 Z% q) |" i7 ]8 e
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- s) H# P4 J$ B0 l* Y) R& X' o& kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 I1 ]2 ^- l3 Z6 C* z" w1 L; Kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 B3 x) c& Z/ ?6 n X, B. r# U5 t
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
& @9 S2 |/ l4 p4 [' m. R) B; \ H+ pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; b) u& v' S4 `, U6 H$ Xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 X) a# s+ \4 @* {historically depressed levels.
, T) Z: o' U: y/ {4 j4 V; D Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 p, u) o/ I- w/ o$ j/ B: s
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% Y2 p; b$ G# dprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ n: w1 e4 W! _! g" Yhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: H' f$ q4 Y l9 q9 R, ?4 ^8 A
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 z- C6 h: }* H+ a
months ahead," added Hogue.
! X) ~) q, ^) X; @/ D& x- v RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# y" V1 v% a8 i, }$ V; [9 c
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 b, t$ z, W. }5 ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." K3 g5 q- y/ C. T! {. N8 B
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& R5 ~9 @0 p2 V9 ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 e8 }9 L D& f( D( i" jcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only3 r: m$ a) [" x8 _" r+ c9 P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 a. `1 @5 n+ o/ b" [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* I( x+ D }, C7 s6 D( dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; U9 j, L# }' P' ` E. B# g( \7 ?
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 l2 Z; S: J( w5 F6 Y8 `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 d+ R% ]( m8 R/ F" { y5 a* b4 @: g
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ N% H& M# c0 J/ c1 n3 h
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) E! N. U( d2 O _( X( l/ \
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 V5 y% I4 n8 \4 m. h$ D: ?' A
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 J) m- |. _# D& ~/ u7 {; q- z" H" {* T: a
<<1 e5 y) i u# O7 v; W) D) K$ k
Highlights from across Canada:
3 [5 e4 g- n) [2 m+ \3 x6 |! R! n& |
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- {5 |, z$ Q5 z0 d' @& j intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, | k; r. O. o* }8 i& a! j home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 m( M: x8 N- f L+ H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 ?- N& b, {) t! J7 ]; k4 ?
since about the middle of 2007.+ ~8 ]- J& o2 b" H, m i
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 ~- r$ h- @- h( ]! s6 |/ M( V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# |" Z4 n( z; ?) ~+ z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 E6 j! x' K n9 W$ f. n B3 e' D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# O) Q0 y, m/ X2 b7 A poor affordability levels. G; |3 @7 a+ o$ S$ n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) f+ z/ x0 G: C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and, J ^6 J2 P5 q/ R( M
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ b$ y% o; q! f3 y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: |9 {) B3 E# h: }, I" ~ minimize any downside risks.
4 {" T& _$ _( d8 Y+ l - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- y* F7 ^6 H4 I- q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& T% Z; x2 ^- _- ^
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 a- I0 l( k; Y, V; W8 Z- ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 k. a y$ A/ X7 r, c1 { being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- B" A+ I# y, h- H - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ Z6 ~4 w L8 q" F0 M( Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 D @1 |8 x. L9 z9 L2 ^4 W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 L6 m3 a( F9 u0 ]" e* K% { reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 d8 C- f; P0 O. Y7 z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, ^5 G% O1 k4 X+ H5 O modestly in recent years.
, ^/ u7 l0 x1 L - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" N- {' z$ s8 k( g% {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ H# W3 G8 v: d2 s1 y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% L5 I8 o0 K8 y3 x$ g
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 `9 Q& g2 @/ _+ \: d. O
following two years of deterioration.& ^0 `: Z2 L9 B2 f8 m" z
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