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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ ~6 j5 d: u2 d4 m) l( b2 ~" o TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the7 @$ @9 }" C: }& K# e
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive l3 J! ]- P" ^; X8 r( j* q; `
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% | a7 v/ D/ b' u7 g3 T a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ x6 [ p5 q1 v: b. r9 z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ D, G/ J% v; @0 d# k- d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% ]8 a+ H9 {0 \1 y$ d6 ]1 F# J- V- oimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 y. h, a6 P; s/ V9 M4 C9 r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& v6 h3 L0 A! {( [% J RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 s0 i4 T7 |. `* |1 J0 n+ Iworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 Q, c6 j4 {# `; r7 M: @3 qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 v" ~6 Z4 U: u! t' ~sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* @0 ]8 P4 P. v0 ]: N/ h The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 I. C5 U- }3 L& [
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; F$ a4 v: }/ w0 [. q+ p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 ?) I. S/ ~6 b F' j
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" J4 c! L2 D. J$ m
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 r& W& u( P: y6 T
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% ?4 l/ n6 J& J# Y" ~% r4 w# G9 ], ` According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" {3 r; B: Y' Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, \2 M% _* H0 _' k4 n# x4 Mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ M% Z- D2 E# U/ d9 p
historically depressed levels.
2 S. B. u8 l8 M7 `2 y) g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
. B' K" D8 m7 Kof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ w5 w& @/ @2 V0 S: y m! J; D3 ?prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" n8 o( }. s! x: Uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
1 j( y; F$ A3 z T6 z, aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 k, Q- E' r; b+ n, m- Q" mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
/ m4 Y& J9 r; z1 x! Y+ n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( Q4 E6 T1 X+ q# V% r: c$ h; z
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; \, Y* |" F0 i5 }2 A$ U) o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, E! T' r/ f* i% \ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 F C' ~8 A& J4 ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 i1 \; I- ]' o( j
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' H8 }: k8 z' L8 k2 l. Q' O H
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 _; G# d4 z0 k( J
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 P5 a9 d5 J5 ~# R( S# Y ], z5 A
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- I5 B" U9 w: Q/ N: D( w; G9 xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 l% d& P) q- _3 u# X0 gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ W; X. f1 E$ `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: h8 a- K: _) f- WFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 ?+ y: ?7 e$ m" [7 Kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ A1 v5 P, Z$ V& l
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.$ S' ?! |9 _+ \, x( |$ b
( \, _( O) r* S# U <<. G8 Y$ l8 \6 v) x" {1 z* f
Highlights from across Canada:1 _0 Z [7 N+ O
- g, q) b* H' {
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 q& v5 Q8 R$ T; ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ Z& f. a7 R7 i+ K) d. t* m0 E1 o home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& [1 @1 _3 k* Q, n/ `. f) ] only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" L8 \5 e" l3 Y" |" ?
since about the middle of 2007.
7 }, @& [% q+ ?7 M% v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ N0 i g3 `- `- a: x0 t: w frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to! U5 A. r' I- d' W' H
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 M9 u$ j/ W" v, V3 R- h
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ }0 G5 }2 V/ F/ M2 j
poor affordability levels.4 d/ [) g8 n( O" F+ L, e+ J
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the& N, c* x, A' y( K. I! M2 J; r( ]4 t
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
M8 N0 R* Y! z g5 q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 r8 J8 G+ z- v$ H6 p8 Q! k: W
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" u% [1 k5 j2 P6 S& J6 W! t4 b! i minimize any downside risks.
! [ _( [/ W5 I1 L - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 |0 Z* j |! _, ?& E# G4 ~ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 P. c+ k3 b6 b) O) l9 l1 j6 F6 K7 }
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. E' v' A2 f8 x
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ l: @& H; G6 Z5 Y9 ~$ T being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ f0 P( e4 }* ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 |7 E. }+ t+ k- J$ y* q2 v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) Y7 f( p* X [# _! p# ]8 p far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 e8 M- @8 I9 K- S reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 r! {5 e8 e$ k$ e. c: A: h ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) _! H: J7 R: e7 O J3 n, i6 x" \ l9 @ modestly in recent years.& ]4 G" y9 g/ x& x) X- U5 C
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! N# G5 ` o; m1 H
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 h7 h$ y9 v' C
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 {; x7 M( ]- V: ^3 Z' f price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability O+ B" }" Z! v
following two years of deterioration.
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