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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + F4 {! P K+ a' Z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ p2 z t% K2 f# {+ w
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) |4 \0 K) F& G7 F7 l* c, Agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ \& }7 z5 ` S* A8 S
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: h2 E- P* l6 } "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" q" C9 _0 Q1 \3 r( T
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
2 }0 P- D3 ^' Pimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability; y) j- N. i1 ^; _8 k- J
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ N! w3 M# R+ I5 T' D
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* D. a, Z0 Q: \5 d
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; s; k! ]* G a& lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) O6 i* M- W* S8 u4 rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' W: a# v" @! t3 _+ Q The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 n; V/ N0 z- A2 r- s9 Gproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# X, { j" o A6 T% }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 X0 ~8 u) K4 P" z$ X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: H5 w( O, e z6 Cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
5 n0 k6 @ F7 J" zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 K" m: }* C' W$ I2 ^2 {. r; A Y# m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: V8 F6 }* R: u+ C5 Vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# R4 s3 z7 L. h9 T1 Q6 [
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- ?" Q' y9 J! _/ q/ ?& y* Z9 b2 R* Hhistorically depressed levels.1 \8 H7 f" v2 X
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
B0 |: O: H1 t- I! X, L% Iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ T8 m l, e+ xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" z5 i* I& M* w3 ]hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 x5 c3 {5 T8 e; X% b/ Aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ ?2 i6 X: J1 {1 s5 t
months ahead," added Hogue.( p* `' L: m& `7 S# P
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 o6 w3 }" D4 P2 A' Kcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 ~4 T1 q9 H6 g! r+ D42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." z+ M! Y* u% d G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
_: T& r$ e- h9 s* la broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ W! u; Z. p# Q7 Q, U$ f$ Scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 j8 X5 C: c: H# M4 Ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( e% p' k5 Z' B, i8 b
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 m/ `- V4 k* @7 u* u. L( m& obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ H0 l2 z1 B5 p ], h
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* H m7 s9 p6 {6 H5 j2 zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. L! d+ P& ?. J- w* scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 V4 }9 ]% G$ s
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 O' o. [' }; o$ }9 r
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 y2 h z2 z3 d0 V3 Y/ @! |$ Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( Q- [( G. E$ ], {6 h
! G6 Q& p$ @3 a! }/ U: M3 a <<
4 l2 D# U( f) H) q9 ?: e& l Highlights from across Canada:
6 \- s: V! o$ O! j) w3 J2 e4 G& x f( h2 u
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
: M# _: t B$ S. a+ i intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 x9 S; R3 y7 F
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ _2 `5 Z B& Q5 V6 ?9 L
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 ]6 ^5 r! K% T: a* }
since about the middle of 2007.
1 w) f' | G0 _, A* K - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 z8 x8 b @# l/ f
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to t: e$ F% S. j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still7 g) P1 d n$ S1 h- b& ~% X9 ?
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! q' I% O& z6 S6 A poor affordability levels.) L, j1 z. }, S* O2 W0 }, i. {
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ _5 |1 d6 L4 ]/ l* m/ ` vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 F! k7 J& B* b" z- a
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ c8 [' B1 T( h8 o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ Y1 U4 T& {/ v& k+ h/ r
minimize any downside risks.) R$ f# ?# _+ N3 |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( H0 T1 \+ w& a) |/ x7 S
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 Q% ~# ~5 M, U. y/ Z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ k9 A" F& ?# Y! P; s- w
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 O4 u+ B3 X \* V; e7 _4 W* q# V being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 L7 h% ^5 S$ d5 Y9 @8 `' ^4 u) P2 D - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! {, m" F; {6 r6 I
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 z0 X1 o9 g$ Z. D8 ^0 p. b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ }6 M' F7 \1 k1 N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 b. X1 m. e4 v) b* @+ { ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) Y d6 v8 M( i9 E9 _ modestly in recent years.
6 M& P. h7 t: w3 u - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* H0 d& R, H6 a1 P+ V# U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% z* ^( Z- e, k- B- p" r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 G: x' z/ @; t* w0 N' Y4 Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" r; s9 ^) R' M
following two years of deterioration., S- ?* V- b" z5 Q5 n
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