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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 N7 \6 j8 Z5 H; Q2 V TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
% V6 F# L! Z- m- Amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" b) \( X% A) T; s2 m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. d1 l7 a3 ^" T8 Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. H5 Z. R' e& d: g6 o, u+ W6 P. g "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# _# C" B( ~" a9 k! ^# u* q. h
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: M( k) S! V3 T; X: U2 H# V8 p
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% h3 b. S3 `) s1 i7 X& V& L( J F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 Z& |8 l4 |0 I9 ~, {% x' _! r# G0 s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 q+ m' y6 @5 S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( _$ A( q5 x: E, R9 {, j
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& o4 t0 R$ z- c, s+ g
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! v' v, S( e5 J! H) p5 C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the1 R! a' @3 H7 A/ k' p- ?7 U! G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ S) \$ ?2 x6 T( ^7 Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 z) j0 d7 b# v( d2 p( ]& t9 JAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" D5 x! X: x6 x) }+ _7 Lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! A5 I- j4 H* w* O* I# H3 G' Bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* `9 q' u0 K/ [! g- a According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 J. A G" [! _3 @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" u9 S8 B* E% Q: Fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& B5 P4 a" \! X- M8 w. B$ o1 C! Z. ihistorically depressed levels.' ~, ]) ]5 ^- {+ W2 V# M
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 U( g. G7 m0 D' ]8 g5 A) O& _% Z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 }9 A8 ?$ }6 @' H
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& {8 i/ C, M! mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& C+ U5 V% z7 K7 q/ Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the3 Y3 l4 z2 q5 ?: s9 h
months ahead," added Hogue.
H5 Z& j9 f( H x RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, n! ]$ p. `( y! Z+ k/ Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- V+ l/ q- m9 P% \/ {9 o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. X" {, R- @4 a' ]9 g
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, ?( z0 E3 V6 d8 q, e. @
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% C. R; H$ I7 ?1 mcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 c) k+ g$ d0 Z% ^
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 \ H g3 h& T4 g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ L* B: A9 B5 T8 ]; _5 E
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' l- _/ U0 f1 o8 Tbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 S1 k! U+ s/ A/ B+ L! j
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" k: }2 f. p1 j' [, j0 l, _5 Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.1 F% H8 R1 k1 c
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: x: I6 Q8 I, d& T7 B: g, Rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 o6 J/ ]* W- F% h+ B& F8 c& a3 J6 K
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* E) i4 L5 `1 ]! u! ^& K1 g- @5 `1 y( H! ]4 G0 M i
<<# S9 q( O5 C% r9 ^
Highlights from across Canada:
. T1 X4 z0 t8 v$ y: G9 @
' O h2 b. u8 r2 D$ C# w: @ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) e" W+ f0 E% {$ A- H: |+ ~ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 D: S' G2 D! R* X; I) }" n
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 K, f( w5 U% L6 a# H- V, m only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) N- e1 n' c B% X$ J5 a- [ since about the middle of 2007.) _ h- |0 R% t" V) \# g, ^. _
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 p# ?5 u. i* P Z. \
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" h5 K9 u' i% E2 G1 n8 w0 H
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 X; ~2 i) E" n8 i3 o5 G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ s% U( r5 q0 e* r poor affordability levels.1 X% b9 f+ D# s
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: f& C6 z: Q, [5 i/ g" u vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" q( f: u- h( k4 g- x j
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
p8 t- f P; e Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 E! u% o$ M+ N6 b& Z" Q6 C minimize any downside risks.
) S1 ?9 D" L( D+ R4 l8 A( T7 ] - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: v& \- o- e& c" u% H; x
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 @5 ~( S/ U# B2 @) G( k5 H$ h unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- z0 U, ^# C+ u2 L* } 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 j& E Y" A/ F; ^0 t; @4 c
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 y+ ]2 s0 Q$ K3 v - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. P9 T. w# ]. [' W; X" [. T9 K; | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 G0 K1 z* [0 i j! i1 A
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ i% T& |5 w8 G/ {* X: @# C y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ p0 }6 B7 t/ A9 k' g( Z' h* |1 }* h+ p
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( {" d. C) K# O+ A$ R$ g3 B
modestly in recent years.
% i; Q8 R9 y- ^7 F W - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ R- K1 t3 I; r/ ^$ A% a* { general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" ]# c: m& ~6 L, b) n4 r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% z1 {1 D0 @, H+ O$ [6 Q5 T price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. U, g2 `- {. b& H9 j& q: N following two years of deterioration.
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