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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: T3 U& m6 T, h6 V7 j, i TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 h5 r1 |2 W8 _) m
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
O g5 j5 c1 T. R% s* kgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( T- a3 p6 O. A H: O
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( b% Z& v* R0 S2 c
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 c! m4 T, ?; osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 F5 a( k6 a4 `& S8 a
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" `" G2 r# O7 H$ s) Z7 f7 lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 |( A- C1 J( C RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 q- M5 e: p2 Z* d5 M. t" s7 b7 wworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 X7 j2 ]( Z/ `& w; ]which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 X2 D& ~( B3 ~; ]: @& w4 Osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% M8 U6 S6 y. \ P' z! s) X2 z% e The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" P! X6 \; N% {" B! c, E# @& o9 F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! h, p; W4 T/ F7 s- Q6 ?2 p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 ? N7 u* a5 Y- D' U' U; \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 v& a+ ~# w: k. J+ d! x5 ~0 z9 Pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ j) M) {$ G- f$ bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* R. w% U7 [( s7 J" A/ R5 l4 u
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 E8 T% y2 d+ W4 l
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 F- f( H6 J0 y+ }2 D/ X. v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! y* A8 v R/ e+ Khistorically depressed levels.+ |) v! i8 p- R e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: U( X7 Q6 \8 |7 w4 o" J
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
# y. t. _! p Z! cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& B$ I0 v& U, _/ r. b. _8 v$ Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 Q8 Y; l) z( Nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 G# _+ L: s# u0 w- _- M/ o& l0 kmonths ahead," added Hogue.1 u6 P; G8 J9 \4 B! `, V( ?/ m _
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 P k* Y7 {* b# v9 R
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
7 ~2 `* ^4 q4 m' v42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ d# }: V/ A7 D* L* @% @
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
2 Q- ?- I0 H! M- y, N: A, ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* H0 e3 X5 b- o; _! \5 x& \, p8 r
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only3 i6 n( d% v5 @' b' y$ G6 Y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& |9 K# ?/ K8 P4 ~ e7 ~: n8 A The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ a" d3 d6 `& V- F) D; `8 E2 rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: O( a" R) _" c4 K2 g. qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ a' k/ H/ q% y+ F2 _6 }+ Kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( E; {2 r9 A! o, `& a, t+ M. ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) r5 l+ }# C& Z7 m4 k
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 v& Z+ p0 g. o& ^& Z- |costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% i; E" O! Y6 w8 V
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
S- s) n0 p% B ]4 h) \3 L d6 ~6 }+ r$ W `! k* }& W( o: A8 p
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/ M' i) f: C, ?4 m& Y7 ^ Highlights from across Canada:+ ]+ ]( y" {# Z2 U
& C; p) @& [0 m) w, b - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* Q0 O' C6 i) h+ A8 R1 N intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ b# F. c- w0 d4 e) p! h2 M l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 U5 ]% ]* W$ ?: R
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: |- @; i- P6 ^! ^ Z0 u
since about the middle of 2007.8 H! z4 e3 A- ]9 w) B+ Q+ e
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- X" ^% `- y9 @3 o" X frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' o6 G; W! B; v1 D% P( p& H
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 S; M7 S9 w7 m2 m3 I6 }
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' C( t) x" ^! F1 J poor affordability levels.
# |* h( n, p+ A1 P - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* d7 @- x0 k$ {3 Z% f( t+ L& a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and$ T: H7 `5 E' J+ z# j2 h# u
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, A/ a; e& l R' [$ n }) t Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 F: [7 W5 y# v6 j* P
minimize any downside risks.: }0 }! H; q! g( v5 ^2 H
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
) L) Q* P4 H# J& i conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. w6 ]7 ?- y2 L3 _ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early! r! k% W8 q# p0 r2 L0 S) B
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& b4 L( W& J. [6 T" f1 O) m$ ~' Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 U1 U a' d7 }6 P- n" ]
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% D* ]7 \7 h7 F5 M+ H1 b3 z
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 U! s+ b @6 {1 k3 i far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up. C# }9 U$ J, s4 }' F' S+ `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: A$ r9 J0 ?* @1 T0 ~- J
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& u f( k4 q$ \5 P; P+ F4 a
modestly in recent years.
* ?: K2 A, o# p# G$ O - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; S& ~- h, _: c9 h* K$ ^
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& L0 `; o) p2 W
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: X& N: w" F2 ^* g7 j& n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" `1 _; {! v: N
following two years of deterioration.
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