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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, V1 E+ G' N- r' R+ o3 q: T' L- s TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- a+ e& ~( O* _: _& W
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. m: K% b! r: c. T8 Dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" L. ?2 `. g* R$ Y$ |* Vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* |$ ?; } w% }% K3 L1 [) S "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- P7 }: `# ?( q2 W# Q3 qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 [; n* n4 B1 v1 O+ l+ kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! v5 _- t4 E' Y. @1 q% s
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." {' n# `0 w. I+ g
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. a, y4 D% X5 B& R2 W* Sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- I2 S3 s6 H- D7 L$ V9 U% n* N
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have: M7 Z" Y. \/ e# f
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ p) c' h. M7 q7 k The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
X+ \' C, k, s" A# v* }proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% I7 h: J5 z* g( s$ Z3 qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% F1 y- f4 z5 x7 x+ i; c# `
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# r: g9 D( q: {; b- K
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 b; k1 K/ x+ N- Nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 |8 l0 v( \2 [% q& Y, A$ c6 ]
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 T; W. k" E2 E8 K5 \4 V2 p
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 d0 G F' k5 r; Z. Rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& |# Y+ s# K0 p1 \# S2 T9 e8 zhistorically depressed levels.
0 h9 }8 Q( N- a Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
_" c- D/ L$ L, i5 bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 { j7 m# l2 G! |) e5 W1 @/ ?6 jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 o8 w+ |3 n/ o- A' \
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 T G+ z; X0 j" z# r9 i; s
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ Y! |6 q" D: B9 p% j6 U U m
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 T( V6 V2 u: V1 v/ `5 t, c RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! N5 {8 I7 c) S J/ Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary. N! s0 E! \' _# O0 Y8 Z- y* y1 {2 C( |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* J" E5 A F- n" j5 i @8 B The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 V" ?7 U4 ^% U& U1 ~
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) {" P- l3 v! G+ B: q5 N
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 i6 W6 G! w& j! a
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: \% t! |' r! j0 Z* L! ^0 V
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 |$ a( v: r+ h" K7 b. _5 p
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property6 I2 L& p/ s! ~* g3 C X! K
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 y! O, C/ D8 z7 Kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard9 `- s' D8 p e# |4 \4 q% y2 ~
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, p" g4 B7 c2 @& w. w# BFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership; W. `, @* l7 I' l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% _6 u4 g# b% ]- S
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 f* D; u9 F( P# o+ L
C8 W ^7 H7 v- T) r2 V
<<* l: r5 o4 R' F8 f/ A2 j) ^
Highlights from across Canada:6 E4 V- b# M# l3 i
. A) f ~1 t3 v# v& J
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: p0 s# k" w- F( Z. ^) i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% ~" e& ]: p* l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 g% t$ T- ]3 u* d K only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( a' K8 {/ e) o6 [5 P: N since about the middle of 2007.7 B& w5 @0 R- H! _+ e9 r/ C+ b6 R
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the$ |5 G2 |4 d6 A8 B
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 X( m) z5 @0 k+ B2 d
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still& ]: ~$ b( t3 [5 O" E' ?0 {" W
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' T4 v0 a( z3 Q5 C' W
poor affordability levels.
1 k; s5 U* a8 @1 R7 ]+ D; j - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 O; h/ C1 s: g; P1 e- r: b4 ]; p
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# p/ u o! v) M; R7 n x
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& R( w' `/ C3 q4 }( R" F: O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 I' f! d% M9 \7 ]- }+ j2 B
minimize any downside risks.
# |4 F$ O' i4 l* |7 {2 k2 D - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
N: B6 ~4 o/ g6 d0 l5 S6 B4 Z# { | conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ H% s& ^' m" h+ V! e# Q6 Z; @7 Y unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- U3 t) \4 s8 J0 K! c 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" f4 N) M- t' v being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 s. H8 r% L+ F! p. z& s' [ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 z T+ G$ t; |' a Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% @4 M. w3 p( i; V8 }4 k far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! ]3 G2 \* Z1 G1 a" |8 ?8 T
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be N- e2 Y0 Y2 N% z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 s4 ?1 ]/ G7 B0 [- y3 h; Z7 Y0 o
modestly in recent years.. p; {1 e' g- W; j% w
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 X4 [! h8 Z( f* d2 V9 L' y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" a( z, F, ?7 I8 B/ p3 e6 m spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 x& G3 F# g6 x7 `5 x5 K price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ o( w _. w' @: a2 i
following two years of deterioration.& C$ t0 S5 Z5 }$ Y$ _& P" U
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