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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 W: u, w5 W( v3 z, t TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 N! F% ?6 D3 s# t
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 R9 w: x: t9 r- m/ x) c
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 J. e9 S! N' D4 X( eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 g! j' o) d6 v w "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' Y: m% v: S7 ?) J) Z6 lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 P, v# b( j% G5 }, y+ L6 _improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- ~* {( R5 Z& D# v* t q7 A
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 V! Q& {1 A. \ X RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" v& f( y& w7 g7 S$ s/ T
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% S# h# ?/ J" r) t* d& \
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 ~# k0 P/ G) f' J+ O) R
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' d3 d$ B0 O4 j1 M6 U3 f
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, t1 w7 x. _) S0 ?- _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. f p; m2 n3 M2 Phome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 C! S+ K" p9 _! z5 PAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( o) w2 i0 }0 e5 ?- e; w% Z1 h% R' rstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ Y7 ^) l6 ^( G/ z: xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." _/ h/ z) t' [4 v: \8 ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ r$ {) H! ~: _2 J. {% J
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ [' W1 A0 s k/ ^0 m/ E" H$ s/ kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 v8 K6 C: k% o1 R
historically depressed levels.
, `# d3 q: |! X( n( ~* f Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* J. Y+ E9 K. O/ Q9 Mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) o8 T8 I. ~. E4 `5 ^$ @prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! t, g" x: ^: ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This6 _" x" x' X# |5 Z2 I
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& D: Q3 T2 I0 S5 P. u$ a6 G5 emonths ahead," added Hogue.! e' f% a: Y, s1 I g$ ~6 G' X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
9 F* `. Z8 m3 k' a( Qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- s& V0 p4 g' H- s k: K42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 Q$ Y8 q c( H, a5 I The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: s0 O" R$ \# J
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 B# Z0 A: h. C, q; ?
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# u1 Y, _) X9 i8 Z4 b2 \
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 y1 U' m, r6 H# c+ ?! m% h$ }
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ v1 s o! j! h* _
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 @. W9 g4 O4 V. _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# E+ `7 y9 X+ _- ^/ f7 L3 p: ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 C. X2 a+ [6 U+ Econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) {1 e. P) t+ v2 T8 {3 \. iFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 c7 m5 w% b$ P& ~% e
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# T* w! ]. D+ {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income. l0 ? o/ l: e3 R, u
) k9 H+ A$ T" {9 z) e9 h
<</ `9 _6 u e/ G2 {- u
Highlights from across Canada:
1 `0 J9 d6 t8 M& B
8 [) a4 L8 Z0 ^7 ~ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* [ |% d. Y# `# E intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 ]# H! w6 |* j home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& x% Q a( e! N0 P, S* z) Y* Z; a
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 m1 @) E# v+ ^3 @8 Z
since about the middle of 2007.
, L* ]2 G- \ ]- Y" U% { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ F! x* Q1 z8 p0 } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ |3 e2 V: d+ ?9 f9 ] e8 W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still5 u) W- L. }' c3 o- \$ u0 v
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 J; I/ }7 T; \- X: I- {0 n poor affordability levels.
: T- {/ y# w7 V: i2 @5 k - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ i4 Z) Q/ L! {0 B ?; D2 a vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and! @8 p) b, u; d" M. \; y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. `1 ~$ A- c5 {7 C y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 F8 H& [4 w, c+ D" Q! [
minimize any downside risks.9 p* I( W" T% N0 V
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( [) K1 d1 z& u, Z0 h0 _* F
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 }7 C2 e/ v* y/ d1 h unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 w# X, |% i1 D- l d' b( I9 ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 b6 I) y; B8 g. y1 s being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
! {1 [. @6 H7 G - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; x% H5 {- o% }! d: r) q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus) Q4 d. {+ v; Q- b+ _3 P8 l" f
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 l4 H! ], J# p( E5 R
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be( D- m$ q9 y9 z9 a4 t
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! P+ E( H+ C+ Q5 Q4 A; _ modestly in recent years.1 j# Z! C% M: p! F; M& h
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ `+ u( h+ B& `
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) H1 l8 Z) X j' Z; @9 z- A) ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& ?' n! K1 c/ ]. N. I. } [ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, u7 m( C) M1 K# H following two years of deterioration.
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