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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 ]. i5 C( Z6 Z4 L6 _: D D
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) N! p/ C: P, o4 l3 G
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) D( A' Y5 D$ F4 w Y8 Fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! U+ I( K. e6 K3 z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 C4 S. Z8 D- K/ ]/ y/ j "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# j \* ^, y: |' a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" h& G, r. w2 F3 N3 C# I, o5 fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 D# J! \% _# }4 W: k1 S' Gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") } i- ?7 J, a% L9 M5 B
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, A ?) T7 Q# ]' Z( [3 G% \worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 E( a& L" h/ V- q5 t2 K$ ^
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 }3 n- w' R8 e* P, gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ B4 J' q; r0 E* V+ L The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' ?+ U* f& o9 y9 K
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a5 k G, k+ `3 f4 Y- _2 [
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% ~+ S1 ~9 u5 ^7 nAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& ^8 ~# i" k( ^+ g
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 _# D- v) O, D" _9 ?' z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
_# D( X" b, k0 m According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 n0 A; _4 D$ z- z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% Y" D" K Z( V" r- N2 Q6 c- E: i$ hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ n# K& ~; {9 Q- n4 I
historically depressed levels.
4 _( y. j7 v' p( Q2 N Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 _% y# i! l9 E( E9 S, r- m" k
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" v) ~1 L, {* `( _- D- Oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 `' B* ?2 r" f9 h, n. D
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
6 B' S5 ]2 D, Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 R# r. N2 R F; A& _
months ahead," added Hogue.! g+ ]+ v0 `9 q: I
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
]# e1 W% ?* L0 ~- ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ b0 R% ^ ^0 P6 }5 {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 L2 t |5 a( k5 \& L9 v9 ^& o: B
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! s9 i' a4 c4 R+ N. M9 E/ {
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 W! ?' e! J Xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only; V! B4 B, U J* ~) s
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& v2 ?: ?& w- t6 J2 j. m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 D9 v. L- T4 Y5 K- Q! @! c ^! i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 c/ w9 O& q# u" q: \, G& K* F6 x
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented) c' I! e) r x% y! k& u
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" ^4 E" ^' J3 D3 ?9 A$ U
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 K( x9 `8 }& U" D' X# {
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 L( Z% \' V" _7 m+ a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
7 }4 W2 M, v/ i7 h+ Yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 s1 v1 M; B' [
! y8 } u" b6 R/ b3 n <<
9 q: o* P( N' l. I/ H Highlights from across Canada:3 D m; D+ D" @% T
7 R" ~3 x6 n9 g$ U- d - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has! g( j$ j9 P7 K& m3 I& C# b1 T
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. y% k9 b: {9 G) J home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 F( Q+ t- e& m6 O# G only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 ?0 K% a; ?$ d5 N/ H* ` since about the middle of 2007.: T7 p8 ]% ^; ~
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, `5 ^! C0 M( b% m1 w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
O9 f+ i' J3 R/ b decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: z( Y2 g1 v8 n, K( Z1 T" \ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 X/ C/ j+ o9 g# T
poor affordability levels.4 ]5 U- @; y7 W: v+ D
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ u4 o* @$ ^) }) K, M
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! w1 n; R2 O1 B7 \8 H- J+ q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.1 ]) o- D* o& [/ y4 t. u) l2 M2 x
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ V( C" R& h9 S3 G" `7 \5 ~4 b minimize any downside risks., g, _# ]7 Z2 M1 x! b. F
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 @( R4 i. A. O# O: K' B# H conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% P2 c4 t2 {/ f. w: [' s, ^4 N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 B( ]7 S2 A' I- ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly! r! {! m$ b- {$ m3 i. @# z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( j; E/ [; @/ ~# ? - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% z! ^( J) l* q0 Y0 G+ G/ J' h
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# R$ Y; e. s( j: R, o3 w! c
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
X& k: o; v! U0 c( U, ` reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. Z) Q. Y) d# K! B q1 {
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 K& Q9 h4 f7 c# p& k* Y
modestly in recent years.4 f8 L# p( b3 |: ^9 f6 y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 w, W/ S1 h& W/ i. w }7 P
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
- }- g- ~$ F3 M. t! D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" `3 G. E( d% @- @- `7 n price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 v: i" \3 m' F5 f' A
following two years of deterioration.3 p8 L) T3 Q7 c8 q( K+ K
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