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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - D1 x5 X* a+ L- g2 r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the {! z) y8 a8 E( S4 h
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ Q9 ~, D$ i/ Z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, O o4 [0 k. ~% v7 I6 e0 kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: } q2 s% j, n0 N$ @ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 p" i5 X) n0 N2 v/ h! M& f- ]
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 C$ u. R9 A( v3 w: |$ G
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% [+ v3 L$ e) u- o5 Tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."( J |. ~5 [5 ^( t, \
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' @' W- Q, X8 V3 g) Yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, x4 E4 v# N$ }2 e+ r9 |9 awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) J% O$ B s# P. i, V/ |1 m# I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 f+ ^* O1 n1 ^; E4 O3 w. G% s& n The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; d% k% d9 ], g1 `+ R4 Cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# f$ d( `9 n/ ~4 A) n( ]( j
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; D# x6 @; G6 k$ R& aAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 J2 m& Z6 r* O* v- m$ a% D; k; J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ E9 }$ Y" r- [0 L. {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
; m3 g3 t" s) r: l3 u& B8 X# d8 m- M6 ] According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" _2 S) T x5 D4 \may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- [" W# Q# `# A2 N6 k# k ^the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ q+ `9 b0 z+ r. i
historically depressed levels.1 F7 [3 M. E1 D) Z4 E" Z
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! }5 f9 l7 V* L7 ?! v0 e2 p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
# F# N- I; y/ b) ]. Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& ]) [& ~7 X* u2 B
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; x( }! R- ^. D% q- D6 m. ]% V6 A
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" V* b3 B$ ~9 f; mmonths ahead," added Hogue.0 }$ j! {; X# p9 v$ Q' d% T
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 E1 Z# I* A# e1 B: z/ Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 t0 J' }2 q8 [ }! o2 {9 W0 O42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( h; `6 [; f' | m& s
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for6 _, e9 ] n7 S6 P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% _; s$ U9 F5 b8 N) hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) J* B: ]6 X, U E
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: ~( Q9 n. i1 l2 _ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, b! `! v' B L+ O0 y9 t$ n
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 e: S6 b: r; _4 ~5 ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( \ [9 |9 U0 |% yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 Y) D$ N3 m' Z' }5 m4 [* Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 U" |. ^7 F/ w( z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* f7 e5 b. G gcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. s+ e# Y- H+ i6 d% i' D
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ ~3 W) q" T: F3 T7 X
$ \+ M6 o+ B$ p2 `
<<8 K9 I0 ]6 M: a) ~" e4 C, t
Highlights from across Canada:' _$ G5 _, D8 D4 p5 | B, q6 r$ S* m
( c# C9 n3 X) Q6 S/ e8 Y5 p( ^( D - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 i; y: |+ V. `- G
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 |( L7 A, n0 |) H# k home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 l' Z& ?% Z$ @! k% W
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 e9 c, j+ X- |
since about the middle of 2007.
9 O0 C4 E( c. t7 E. c; o0 } - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- d9 q* c5 `& q$ n5 h# @! g+ c; I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 O6 _0 M! R! J2 ? decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: V" b" |# p5 r: u$ |
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ ~" G( H6 n- i poor affordability levels.
$ e* i) S3 F9 b! M# w4 r' m - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* @7 z, G9 f9 \
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 z0 d T$ q: B; I, h" W2 R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ e1 v3 _, X) j$ @% l9 I6 p, o! _
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( K. Y$ e7 f; g6 Y$ w# k( N& g minimize any downside risks.( O) U1 c8 ~7 O. ^' B
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( W8 r1 [5 r0 \. S3 y) u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 K1 U, e4 p5 _. l
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 }' m/ a8 ]0 s, D& g# ?8 b
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& C' Z, E& {0 }" v3 K9 D% e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) u; r5 w2 v. |+ f" D4 f
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 m$ z( x( B- R( s5 K Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 V6 t! o! B7 n$ F3 v! y* R, K
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! H, ~; p' M# P* D' B1 O
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 e7 ]: `' `: m. }. l$ w. H' A' I
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: x+ a R1 ?: o- _) C( a4 L
modestly in recent years.
7 ~/ G0 P7 I3 }& c0 B: K! Y& j - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' Q; |, o3 i; z: H4 }2 k$ s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& f8 p4 T/ S1 L+ i" {3 k- T
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! _5 j+ ^( J, U# Y9 H, ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
C, O, i4 Y4 O" c2 H$ o7 ~ following two years of deterioration.2 ]* k- Z& G2 {* P' B. X) @6 m _
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