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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : p& ` Z' \/ F# w5 n% W0 X
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the& B) B& e+ r+ W: K! @) i4 U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! P( _8 v1 t3 P3 N+ c+ W% @2 S
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, ~+ |, n" j9 h+ D% w& h5 [2 `# ~
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 f4 q9 ]: D: k/ q8 M+ x0 l
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 f' l( x1 i! ~5 l
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: A+ K( z- ]1 o W' {# }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! |7 H& `: d4 A! J" _1 s" E2 tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."( I9 i6 `7 T" s- H0 U: z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 W9 F8 X$ N! r- w4 q0 ?# Rworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: W' p* e5 Q5 d3 S! U5 ?which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% \& e! H! R4 u" [/ V9 H3 M
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 w5 V* w# T, B, X/ G, w
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! E% c# h6 }( y# y/ bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ ]2 W" O9 Q1 s
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 [- p, _; d9 a( i1 ~
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 ^7 N9 o. i+ G9 P( W# M5 ^; r& e% Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 n( `6 I- V8 L0 L4 O2 sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 Q: w. C2 p# f According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets ?1 K+ O. G' X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% A$ @! Q4 Q! a* _# \; |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; p) }# c8 {' ?2 L, M6 p% Y5 Chistorically depressed levels.$ x" B1 X3 z1 u/ ?# m! K/ P5 j; J ^- o8 |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( V' c N, k. C" s8 `of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 S, z- J0 ^- A# v8 f* W9 q" Fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; ]* k: t1 u S7 o2 Q" chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 H1 e! E! ^. T( \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the9 z* R1 W/ }/ L% O7 p# M
months ahead," added Hogue.2 C0 }2 h: T% p' ]! S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 l6 `; t" \9 \cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) _% P r, \ |! k! O2 b42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ L, P4 h' O/ Q1 o3 m% N; a The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) G* a/ H0 W! J# i' j) K) y" C Qa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( k3 c9 f# ]4 k4 k+ ]% `( I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 X* D. X' h7 ~; ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account. x, ?( O* R7 H7 ?& U& d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, a; j7 z; f+ y* o0 W
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" U$ ^- f3 G5 |3 V) y; _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& h& \- b1 S+ D7 tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( N0 q' W7 f$ I; w; W
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 J4 B( i) d9 N* d$ I& j" ]6 U
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- Z7 ]- r( A- w% y" R w
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 h" F4 ^+ v! q1 n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ K. {( ^( d2 ]9 L( A. T, H* Q5 @
8 g1 r" E7 b% R8 m- ~: m9 r6 | <<# ]( _! t% w5 W' v3 y9 o
Highlights from across Canada:
9 n. i+ u: q; e$ G7 |" Y
, m/ V; {. W9 y# \% O - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& I4 M8 P% _. K7 Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 M# A B' W# j2 ~$ o2 I
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' w: ?: c$ u! Y, z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- o* v+ d, T( ~3 k8 T
since about the middle of 2007.* J' k4 o1 M$ A/ }; M% l) U
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# h8 X) \' c) |" |
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 O8 B+ N9 ?7 F0 }. F2 Y
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, }& b& P1 t6 [5 U& ^ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 s/ A# M; r0 d poor affordability levels./ @) F: c m5 V
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ B) K4 j" O% A vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and: Z ]! f: X+ E! u+ m0 L7 L! n; ^
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 {' ~/ U# U8 u2 { Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! s. p8 t& }6 K. N# O. Q1 N minimize any downside risks.) T! G+ C4 N' X4 R4 X
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 c1 B8 z2 d, E* A
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' i. h: t: ]9 c: l. ?2 g unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 y( _# W! C5 D- H+ \# O5 l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) ~6 V5 I& O) x/ @' r' @
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) K8 w8 R" X/ }; B, d! D+ z - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& J7 e* O$ c9 z2 W# F( I7 _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ j* X: e [! A3 U5 T
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" ]& r ]3 U. y& ?" b1 ?& ?5 Y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 F9 Q: d9 Z- r6 a: M/ J
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! n5 b/ N6 q2 X N' `! p! p! ?$ M
modestly in recent years.1 v3 z5 s$ }6 O6 y5 @2 j
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& ~2 B6 \9 b$ B! `1 a4 a
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ D _2 R: o* j. D4 }" d6 w spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ N7 o9 V3 L6 h0 O) W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 d+ R3 [8 G2 z) b {1 V
following two years of deterioration.
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