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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; b# a( P7 _8 e7 z# G" U
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 y4 ` d$ n$ X+ t4 z/ x' d+ z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 t0 U, r9 }& ^8 C6 Z" }& {! T
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
6 \8 Y: _* |. p3 Zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, C9 h# L5 Y# j "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& ~6 l; p: _; L9 Z( s, {2 M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& v; g8 D- B+ _! ]improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) E1 N5 p/ v" ], f) y/ |9 Imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; P: n" r, D: ?$ m: i" T8 V% J
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ p. o4 d- @5 S6 Q$ x( H+ C% O- w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: [6 ?' J1 J2 O7 ^; u& |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% T. n1 a! }! m) X v& Ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- e4 \5 {% K) F: c The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 `+ [+ X+ c3 W" R3 Rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 C/ q% \( w' C: v( c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. r$ t' U: P! \5 ?
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" Z4 H( [+ k5 T' G# Cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 Q2 [2 P; }7 b) ~: F+ ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! c2 k, p+ I) h5 }4 a# S According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: f/ e8 F) P8 C- ]/ |; Amay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# ^7 }3 s) E3 i! {' {1 j5 Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 T' S+ r) ?4 ~& D- I. L
historically depressed levels.3 G& a/ Y& x' `; ]+ [2 R
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" f( N- r/ [' z5 z- \+ I
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 L8 u" Y. a) O0 b2 qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- i0 J+ N! `! _+ |- f
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ Z; V' Y g( u' w- b
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- J3 f) o( ]: T: c
months ahead," added Hogue.
' B A& @/ a& h+ R1 t, B$ m RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ L- J, j; M) W& B/ ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" Y. h+ l0 d6 z' H" T* Y4 s42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 f- i3 t% T8 `! |: n" v+ F4 I+ S" j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 B" F) R1 f3 g$ Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& H2 X: T# z8 F {
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 e# W/ }7 c4 [. [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.. f( {" M! d( V( c( A
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% j5 A) \, i' T5 b' E8 a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. q* p6 q2 E/ N9 w1 ]7 `( ?4 z M- E) Z
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented8 ~( i6 J2 M4 b7 l0 E8 g4 X
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; k* h/ w5 S( l8 @
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 b3 M/ V8 s% @# ]; z; h
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 L$ a3 X" I8 H" o" ecosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ s7 M& {3 U, o9 H- Y: P+ e
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% J! b9 o8 p- y* z% F
8 K% K9 q0 {' I( B5 f- C, K
<<, B0 _9 Y4 {7 |% _+ m e
Highlights from across Canada:
5 L4 r2 A6 v2 m; k' g
$ d% ?8 v9 o. x8 w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
% v0 h+ C5 _9 l' R9 B& `( ^ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ w8 P5 ]9 M# ^3 }: _; Z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ e H4 r) y/ w' w6 E$ G" }) i
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 `/ c. ~# h* h1 | since about the middle of 2007.
3 b" B) b5 f p1 ?# ~2 t8 D - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 M4 W3 v. L! q) K% E
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; K7 t+ l5 i, s1 h/ f$ N4 j$ c0 f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% t0 h2 M7 N$ y: k* b8 a) r+ N largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely" K- Y& G% N6 l* c z( n* K
poor affordability levels.7 A/ F* Z( E3 Q) t
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ N8 e( q, @* v6 l; l* Y
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
z4 A' }7 F i; O prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
n( [6 `& |; I Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! M3 W- q8 O9 m- S e1 G$ C minimize any downside risks.
4 K Y0 p, G9 [, j" _& @7 g - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' y- V5 B' R( J. k4 @2 e
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; W# u" Y+ Z m) N: D: f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 r a* `( w: L: @, F' m 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, v8 i/ W) ]7 d0 ^
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." j2 K6 r$ d# q( s
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* v- k' E: S& e0 p3 A3 a2 E/ I Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. s `/ X8 a1 \6 { far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 g& K# R6 j( q9 @2 _( J4 q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' W1 [* P! Z1 u ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, h- N1 o- i, y, C8 F
modestly in recent years.
" z& v8 E4 S: E- A! E/ a! \% l3 s/ C - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# M% H# S- J" x; Z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 B7 @! R' W9 D. r$ |) R2 D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward O7 L/ t7 _; `. Q
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 r) I! b; m0 L: X following two years of deterioration.
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