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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : z3 |( W4 D% J6 v
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 i" {$ Q J9 X1 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- h2 g9 M% a9 L3 I6 zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* D& j. P |* r1 B" Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 l# F3 M* ~2 U/ x$ ^
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- M% k+ F) s7 k3 f) C
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ S- x# W. O/ k% iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" Y7 Z) d+ l# t# B- D" Z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 J& F) K$ L' H) m( |
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 w2 E2 C" ]' p+ _( M, \
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# r ~. Z$ Z& T0 G; R W1 C0 W4 q+ f; {
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 M- I( f& D$ {) r7 }* p& G
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
# {# @$ [2 `2 v5 s; I" W The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 k& Z$ L+ W! [/ ?# @+ W/ |5 {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a i" H5 Z& W: g* o& w0 l9 G
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% A& a% O1 G" A* |5 ^: d
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# L+ n: u7 x3 Y4 M
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 m2 x. @7 n, x( P9 ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.( p, u2 c# U+ c7 \: X! R1 w j
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 Y# u( A! \6 b; _$ v% W' ]may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ H/ c1 A5 S% a* I: rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' R- D+ }" x+ O$ F6 G1 m4 Qhistorically depressed levels.' ]' D1 C3 N9 M, ~5 e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' H+ \ w' J: g8 K' c) ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 Z+ s9 w2 @3 u; X7 D) {0 ~4 [prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' c1 w+ \2 N, h& L8 H8 [1 D) a! S
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& G. X4 m. _- G; }
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 {0 C, z3 X8 E6 l; S4 w) {
months ahead," added Hogue./ |4 f3 @/ S5 U n3 _2 j+ @. m% h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ i+ R7 Q8 K @- M# B, {+ b8 Mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! S% {" t( }* n! R" g, |42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% m# c) p7 a2 _& D' t The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 U7 ^) G, Q: R9 P) I
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 O4 f8 h0 c$ |( Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 e; t6 v+ F" W8 r7 K4 C/ w/ A
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 a- G5 X- L& ~, q5 ^
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 I6 y& N3 f! d% @6 d. r( G
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 t* Z; ^5 A- R; _' _' n/ kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
H. Q. }3 c- @% }5 q. fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 X, ]: `' L" o) o: P% }
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 v7 p4 J# |" u1 Z& HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, k0 B/ P/ d( w" v) N0 ~8 n
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( P \# R7 _, d* d5 M
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
M0 Z- b" H" O: u% t S
7 U' a% M! f' G" g, w* {* d: v) i <<; H s) \. b' v0 t
Highlights from across Canada:! ?' T7 @9 v( y& u4 Z5 `
0 H0 e( @: z! x( [3 M
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 @: N( m- a5 O: o- C ]5 G- B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing! U$ y3 i4 w8 w( e2 f+ ^
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ `# F0 P+ u8 j. H" T/ i+ U/ I
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# @0 ~. Z) O7 {( b: c/ {! h: R
since about the middle of 2007.
( q! u ]3 m3 U - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ Y8 e' I' W' U
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% a- U/ z; X* x5 f) Y0 }4 ]- M decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, C# t: Q7 F5 ]" u" G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely _) S7 S! C3 P* Q5 S7 k7 g8 i
poor affordability levels.
( q. c- M7 B( c0 l3 e0 r5 H( U - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' V& b {% E3 d& Y# S vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and2 v0 ?0 p& _4 e3 S+ ^: E" ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 \) h. Y5 p4 ] Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. w; [6 d2 `: ^: x& t
minimize any downside risks.
% P2 k- a, F4 O( @ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; f6 f8 S# ~# l; `$ x2 b
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is g7 ?* A! D1 [
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 r# D( ~2 c! S: J6 C8 @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& @: ]( s+ p* |$ E0 P being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 g2 R: n3 l+ _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 t1 v7 b) a# q" @: E, l+ s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 V# j$ Z8 T! C/ X0 @) m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) X" w0 M, r6 R7 T1 a: N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 W) Q: W: Q \$ d0 g5 E* ]( A
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 [- _7 ]% g+ H, s modestly in recent years.& S% U' ]2 A6 x: |
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the3 P& v' f( \3 [
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ ?; g* K0 K4 R3 w( o/ F- n! L spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( O$ s' x5 _1 O( Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 R% L+ s9 m, j2 g- P) T& w following two years of deterioration.
/ A' ^8 R+ F2 d; {4 a: Q; ^3 u >> |
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