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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) v2 H0 H* G) c" B- z8 u" }! |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
1 b8 s9 ?) v& Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive$ Q6 I# _' X+ t6 [
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
% i7 b/ E5 k9 |' O8 a$ vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 g4 L2 H# x- P7 o5 o
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! |$ `# v( e2 l. b8 Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- y0 J9 |% z* J
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! `3 D$ |, L) ~' v+ Kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 a s0 g" K7 j! F G RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
N4 z; I7 N2 R& h& M' d+ m* Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 s9 o$ ^3 x, `
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) E6 O* H# q( u( Rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 A8 A/ X. L5 k( |2 r- E
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 j! _3 u0 e) Z2 V0 |& c4 hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 q/ O4 n1 j, G: z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' k$ x! `8 A7 {" [
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# z7 h4 H6 i8 c% N! P* b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ W! W) _5 j9 ]5 n3 S* z0 b
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 A# @" U8 s4 i According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' \4 }) l" }6 k0 k* m; \
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* ^$ t! Q# @) H- ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- ^; n6 O$ _8 x; G# P: w3 v; w- V! `historically depressed levels.6 P( ^/ `/ n ]! f3 e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 L: E: S0 ?5 L8 A0 `# _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 t1 W# y, M$ L/ y' I7 yprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 j; k" ?/ H% {/ j1 Q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: [: q) J W$ I; D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
J8 ?4 I( Q' c {2 K7 K* \4 `months ahead," added Hogue.8 h4 a- B% {% {& x. u% }7 `
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 {- H E- r& n9 i; Bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ f, h" `# M; p6 u" p* p! N42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 A0 y4 _( l( O0 E5 c8 z8 ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# Q2 B0 {" W5 C, l& S# y. j& ?
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these" h/ n) k$ S4 o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 m2 B. E- p5 j; ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 J* u5 F. r' f; V% a
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# W# z% A Q* p# Jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 P& R6 j- y2 x# o: ], Ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ _' q0 D1 f7 p1 C- i; Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 N! x p' _: n" i7 K
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
; o$ R Q3 L5 Y6 v2 H, jFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ c: J- H' X+ m/ D# kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 r. e! A* D9 C/ h, \/ n5 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 a7 Q& | M s* T- A( O
& N# C+ Z: }8 l& U* q# y <<
0 p0 R8 a8 C3 ^ Highlights from across Canada:
. n) m& n7 m% Q1 B' e" u, g0 y1 p
" C% M0 ^8 l4 _3 i. I* ] - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ R- T5 }+ a- u9 M intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing Y, [* E0 @, E$ N3 o P. L) z
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- t; V# A: X) v+ h only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# L2 y+ |% O1 ^/ z* m since about the middle of 2007.+ n/ [ F9 `' ~& @+ e" x, z
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the U6 D3 y) k: l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; S" Y% h8 b" K- b* Z
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ u0 |; g& q" H8 V* ~& K largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" M8 F5 K1 G3 E' E; {0 r poor affordability levels.4 Z. }1 Y' ^0 r5 F& Z! ?( T0 b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: `! e' e. ~' L" p
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and ~' d' B, }1 e! b0 _! W9 p5 v: \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 E/ h3 L2 n C4 [" }- d/ b
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 I& g- P3 o4 `5 u5 h! w minimize any downside risks.* C- a' {/ G- Y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; e' ~5 V+ n, y) P, F% _3 E conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
`% Z( ?3 m& \ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ p# h2 G3 y9 w) {1 V. z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 R' E/ j" H% `% I; y4 m( B being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( K: z; ?. ^) l9 P$ e& ^/ U
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 |& @. H) B1 q3 M9 z% [& g
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" r. J" M' M0 M4 C9 r. ] far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, h! t8 d. z/ `' @* W; `2 d reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) T; r ?1 b; W
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ j* F: E6 T0 l ~; J" ]" m7 K modestly in recent years.
: B* S+ y+ A/ M( W: R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) z R, J( O# D9 k
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 {1 I0 q2 i' @1 z* ^: U) K, s spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ h4 f d8 }6 i! T
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 _" e" X6 V, C following two years of deterioration.0 \8 i* y" f% a
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