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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
! R3 g: }( x8 }' a/ G9 t/ I5 U% k TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' t% S6 X6 k- c7 ?" w' O) V- ]5 e" q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* v, v1 P i3 D7 Z Zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' B1 s! i. G8 ^6 k! Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 S/ G& j7 K4 Z$ ~1 Y
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( z% {& S( l! L' h2 w* K6 }said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
0 b2 q7 e, ^9 mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! ?) p9 E$ | [8 omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 u) L! @+ W. z# w8 Q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' l- H6 G3 O7 O% {8 J( H. x+ Bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' j, r: x# S& I4 r) _9 l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, `1 B) F6 b3 y! Q# l5 ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
# v- W4 Q+ e4 j7 k: `3 {, y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 [* p, T' ]) Y# U2 P6 V, jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a% n! D' _4 i1 I+ c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 ?4 r" v; E, aAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* D8 W, K5 V6 Wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, U4 Z# ]$ \4 i3 D& Q6 Rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& }) j' j$ ?/ M) v. a& L2 Y0 ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 z* ~- I5 I5 \5 j3 N2 ~may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 s# A5 H9 j) i8 h( u$ Q5 athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. u1 i( q: G, n9 mhistorically depressed levels.
% J& X4 B& @2 R" E3 k6 L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 i3 v# l: Q( I0 K& Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* k1 m" g _4 i. {prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 e2 g- i' W" w8 G4 |
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ t( o M7 e! a4 t- s/ \: lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 e% d& i$ i; b) N3 Pmonths ahead," added Hogue.
8 r- Y# E6 P4 S; {7 Q6 Q) M RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. Y, z& d! o6 o/ g3 d$ D
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& \" S9 w m; C' u42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 z3 Z3 v) s0 F- Y. k! j
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" k1 O% I% ]( A3 h
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ z6 [) j" H! M z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only$ r9 Z" V- f z" t
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 `5 U- q3 Y( C! [1 t) W E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is ~0 i1 P& k" a- `# P
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 b! O/ ~! F. f1 Xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
6 h. I; m7 R, x; N& vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 y" s4 \- u3 @# u8 d
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 t% E+ S9 a3 g) {For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership b8 h6 X4 o1 _% k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" I) F, ? b( X+ zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 u& b: w8 |4 z0 o* @) u# U
' ]1 p7 u- _& v- T <<
1 V$ M6 I9 o0 L" [: i0 j Highlights from across Canada:( H( t2 { R$ y. X% ^+ D/ ]
2 S5 o3 H! F0 x3 j: c" K: v - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! W" {/ D& R E1 M: h+ N) @; ~" i intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ c) q' z4 @3 S X; \! O' A' G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ m1 C' G' t0 e# m& }
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 e' L# [) F/ Z" p; b4 q* f" m0 g since about the middle of 2007.
* h% Y$ A! r |) U2 j' P8 ? - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' x" v4 G3 ?+ k' l- m frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ n% O; t' X3 c% }' E decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
X, @( W @: v/ |$ O' z8 \ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 C8 W' m7 h/ ?& |9 u% J3 e
poor affordability levels.
; w$ d6 W4 _' q0 |, I4 M+ [ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 m+ K0 _% u' G) T$ h7 a$ ]
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& x: j# q$ ~6 {( L
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& V$ c9 E% _% D* K0 J" @; N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. s1 U; [, w+ s( S& x8 A* u6 g3 j minimize any downside risks.
0 w3 @- h* B0 r5 T4 }) ` - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" y# e; N* C' x. B# V! K: K- W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 b8 O! T5 m$ ~; D( p8 u unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# u' ^2 ^( f( ?3 A+ d
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 S+ P, z) j8 \+ s/ M2 [+ I& T being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.: f3 y1 X, q. `$ W; D `/ w3 P
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ o7 i4 a+ k+ S; ?0 N+ {8 W1 L6 m, V Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 G. v0 D( M+ h
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 k; o' u! r8 A6 S* k& ?) e2 t
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be% E- R6 Y, z7 M( S3 x, J J6 F' V
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! l& i) {& a. \' g
modestly in recent years.9 e4 i/ l7 ]. O$ O2 T# e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* R4 o& f5 K7 x1 D2 M: K4 k( P" p- n
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot( X n7 j" `1 x- a
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- z& M% }. c1 p2 o# Z8 N+ S price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. s: t- @& p& H6 T) t following two years of deterioration.
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