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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* H1 c+ ^7 Z6 l# o TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* \0 P8 ~) e5 \' Pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% Y, f& Z9 S# l. {gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 Z$ s2 O; a' ?2 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" |/ J+ D- k- e" m5 V0 U "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,": ]. U; Y2 n; b7 T+ U+ K
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. q: b. {8 {! i0 ~* G2 @improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. q8 v, A1 I3 h1 Z+ Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", C$ V3 a7 W5 ]/ M) C8 H) H
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% e% k0 q0 Z9 b0 `3 y: G, P2 j
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" g" |6 t, O8 _# a4 g4 qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- O9 u; J0 i$ H A2 T! _sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* ?# y* n: Q$ k9 s2 p; d4 O: D
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# }- G! Q1 n/ K! z: v
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" }3 R; U% B1 y9 @: ~! M1 Khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
! Z+ u0 s( }+ @, GAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% j+ n9 a- w; @& g% Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 M& u, z% J2 h3 b' Ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.) `% k' _6 T! J8 a# L
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' W. N G& B1 U9 Z M% [
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 o: W3 l9 @5 `' T! ^3 b) A9 ]the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 @$ e5 o$ t# y' }
historically depressed levels./ R% k% S+ E: I" G; ^& {# e! V
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ m. P6 c" n( D. G7 rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 R p/ r* q2 `: A. Q. Qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: b: M5 w, n4 |- E
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, W4 O# M( ~8 g6 |5 F
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
U0 Q! k" v" J' tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
; @& {7 c# K5 g, v3 u8 f' | RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! f( s- q9 B) Z+ ?: k$ r" q4 ` d
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary2 {0 P# z; K2 S
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ W& ?8 g/ S; c# s( Q4 e6 N' g The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
" X& V) v1 N- N' u- Aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& f. e! F% x/ x& u/ Z% Y' F! @5 A
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& y, m) w3 M" {) S
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: Z7 D3 [( |7 i7 G( A' n3 Q$ o7 P2 D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 y8 t& c* r: \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property# {5 ^5 Z B' v
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 g" I) H8 ?3 D; q. l; Nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% @* R. y+ o/ Q8 S/ _& {# S
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ z5 i5 l0 x& z$ W5 FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 n( [2 p$ `4 |8 Mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" x9 K& X8 u) n5 C/ ]* ~per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; l4 ?2 r8 F) N( P4 k4 {; s' v
& X- l- T+ _6 Y4 _- s <<5 G) H' |( E* B' B7 G3 H
Highlights from across Canada:6 H" x% K" M" w5 D
1 [2 Q: o5 a1 l/ e, w
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ |+ R0 v' i! z; X8 X6 { intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 E8 _ l3 s' I. ]- }! Q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 [' M( U F* m
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 \* q! l1 [! f0 G4 X/ Y8 [. G
since about the middle of 2007.7 ]% T. R0 _8 U e/ t
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 v) ]1 f* m5 K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) d& J! g% k; B+ R# i$ Z. ~9 j decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* ^6 e8 m7 y9 o; w6 s r, x2 b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 _& G( z/ l; g' V4 |' r8 V
poor affordability levels.1 j f- \2 q1 w
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 A m: S1 N$ A! h( I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 ?9 |8 S- f, X0 A6 `4 P8 z prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.) b/ V9 ] W l
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& u6 `. H- ]8 ?4 L ?& ~" p$ m minimize any downside risks.0 r4 V: K7 o: `. f# S2 }! W) C0 x
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ y3 f/ F: A; ]6 \ b7 {, o1 Q3 ` conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ F4 \; U4 b& y4 n unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! m* X+ D; V' S 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ B, N& _5 E2 l' E4 L- d being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 w& _7 |! W! m+ d: |( q) M4 g5 v - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 M" h% z) [- Y/ C; G8 l9 [" w Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 w$ B4 i3 z3 b, w" h! V
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- G; p l, q+ c$ Y3 @" k reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* x! c9 q3 h) R* X9 o: Z' k ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ D {8 K+ n+ ~7 q( ]" ?# i7 e
modestly in recent years.; V. `5 o6 x" L2 J5 f6 e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) a R7 B7 o% e& _$ D- [0 e general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* c9 l8 F7 O6 x
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ F$ `8 O( \2 D1 Q price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability: W$ T% o1 E! I( q# n5 z% M
following two years of deterioration.
& K7 h! ]+ ~( @- {* K >> |
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