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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 4 L, g- ^ c$ q( W" q( _
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the j- R* O. h" G2 T% A4 h# |
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 J1 L! o" R- Y6 w) b+ Y9 @
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& t9 Q5 b! E) C1 \9 E9 baccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( D6 C' y+ y/ h: S/ \) M% T2 r
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- w" I; _# K- e5 C6 j0 `8 @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# }6 t# ~2 w* {& Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% v1 `- g. F5 f+ E
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.". |$ S0 h: q% \5 j0 K" a5 [) o
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ o6 c: L( b3 Aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 j5 w* p& _& S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' R/ U8 l! Z5 {6 c" i$ p) J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% Y R- [& U# Q2 f# I/ h' e' T
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% @7 W; h# ?5 x) A) ?proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# h6 J2 e& h) k; ~# E# Hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
) B; O' w- u' E% oAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* J0 v+ M% v4 e, m$ R$ d5 j
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) F) e7 ^( U Lthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
1 d. [0 x3 Z4 M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 \" D8 @" N/ g$ H' S+ h/ w# y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; @2 Q, T( W# x3 ?( Cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 o) l6 x G6 T8 g* c8 X6 V N
historically depressed levels.
* Y4 B' L3 g# b4 o& M3 D7 z) r Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* T C0 a4 d' j: |, D, [
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 w X3 {9 {" D3 y
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: n# x$ C, b& ]& Z% t: H. G/ f. [hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) K' I# p1 m! a; }# m& ?4 senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ Y4 r4 J3 f2 B& n* dmonths ahead," added Hogue.& @0 o4 w' G4 `2 ^4 y3 i* a
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. d, V' x6 c+ ~1 E
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 W. E$ q. v% W# O! H7 i0 s
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# b2 e1 [3 C$ R5 H* K
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( w6 R# Z* J0 Y7 `5 T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, b( I, H g. F* H' l1 x
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ o+ s5 u" I+ D1 f% ~/ C: v6 ftakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( m& k! Q" y2 l% Y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 `8 _4 F- \$ {! {! W4 r7 L7 y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: G2 n/ l [* D9 B3 ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, |; f$ g' r$ _2 m
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 R2 l A: U% z' T
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ o. c' Q E3 u7 e6 P7 CFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
4 m9 d) ]( s3 ]1 b: w2 i1 z4 ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ [- w% l& ?7 }) N( V
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& S; C% K Q4 L+ M5 Z9 r
2 z4 c( y4 w5 p( E& _. E* A: _ <<1 ?$ B5 x2 y+ A$ F5 S
Highlights from across Canada:
' {4 s- t2 ?+ B: [7 U" W) _+ k
$ E% M: d$ ]& w9 C0 d - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 c/ }# l* `/ a3 p
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( m7 W! k2 b4 A0 k E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- R$ `. S3 h9 P$ _3 s3 Z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- l- w' d! ^4 r1 x& m- m
since about the middle of 2007.
3 b7 @7 ~" W5 o, o - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& ]1 |. ]; L- {# s7 @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, z: |% X- P# e z% j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) s$ O a. c6 |. O A8 W) N largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, o, ^* b* m& {7 u7 J( R poor affordability levels.; o9 R9 ?* H. c/ Y3 R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 ?" F% V s s4 G" F6 N* G& Q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& Q% m k" B t3 A2 ? prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ @. {2 p x7 a+ Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
3 q' e* f& m! o O" W minimize any downside risks.
+ h+ T/ z' C; H1 e$ t - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 o8 _% ?0 {) _- ~# v) t conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- y/ Q" [- |$ g, U6 Z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( L! i- ^8 r2 L: p. {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly! j( @2 j4 P% k$ {
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& s4 M5 d5 V% U9 s
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! ]9 a- h0 V- O& o- R. K0 v) f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% |% T+ K& b) ]0 _) q1 ]/ N& P6 w far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% j: ~7 L0 E) ?% h6 x
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: K( C6 {% \ B ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 X4 V, w3 q. N modestly in recent years.0 D0 L3 ?7 L5 t9 i( h& D
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 P9 `- V4 b' h- O% q b
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 X; {5 ^$ B5 {! r5 ]. v: x3 @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 B T, h, l. z) B& c price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 p! v$ N6 V) ^3 t following two years of deterioration.
% ]6 w7 ]! d5 @+ @: M0 P >> |
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