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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; r; h9 W% ^6 j Z! q, _ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# a1 `3 ]5 D- ?0 K2 J" Xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 `6 k/ j6 R6 {, a+ \& dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 D3 ~9 o/ q Paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 B- x K. q5 m, y; A* E$ d "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; E, i9 x2 c7 x; Z. ]' `* ksaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: A* q0 b9 R8 F: ^8 F" J3 ?. mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 h4 h' u7 T2 J) E# t j) N
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
\* `/ K/ F% m+ m( I4 q+ V- z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- M, \' _% T+ j7 Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' l& I* V# {* {) }
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) z& u+ h N( A5 Y8 F; lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 c; Y# |; x& r6 A5 F The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( a1 {) E4 T5 ~" I% P# rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 W: ]" ?5 Q9 P0 D- |$ Hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 L' N# N& a/ {* j1 p5 }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
3 j: C% e3 d( c! |$ V3 V! F+ Ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 A, a W4 _7 P! n9 b% W* {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ Q2 i! K# Q- z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 e4 R3 {: M3 e4 w0 N1 M& @
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* w# p' x! ]. o0 X- c, h2 S
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 h$ @7 J! s. F! N) n
historically depressed levels.5 s" e* t) R, ^
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# S5 g0 i. y) p# Z% O; Aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 y7 L4 `5 |3 a3 _prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ J' v6 ~ q( q+ L+ m: `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& W" s% x! _4 U' O
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
]: @3 A2 a+ ~ l4 D* [0 o C$ {months ahead," added Hogue.4 D% q# Y6 \$ ?. |* m2 d8 I) Y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest [8 x& ^2 W" N) z) ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 y. J7 W5 S# s" t' N$ V8 Z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
8 M' c! x* u2 h The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ a" ` ~* @* j& B, F$ va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 |8 y5 Z: T2 ~( D3 {2 N! z* }cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& G+ ?8 g+ n$ M+ Vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ |, W: j" m- }; Q2 m. ~4 } The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% h. K S' \( gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. U! c j: j" ^1 T$ p4 b0 ]3 R
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ j7 F6 `, S s' R+ ?$ @, f# \, |including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) i7 K4 Q4 w& B: x, H8 |9 t
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., U+ m7 ~) a+ U+ d- E. o+ Z ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. d1 b4 u# u) A# b" Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 H. l" l3 h) n, F0 q: n7 L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 W2 X+ p8 I0 `$ j7 _ B. L) ~
3 A" ?* j& ~$ \1 C* N7 q6 O <</ L# e, O" Y9 I# w
Highlights from across Canada:
w [! H' m& j2 u0 ?2 E# z
; Z; x% ~0 a: p! V - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 H& X% h$ c7 x6 ]8 h, a4 ]/ A
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' b, z. x# ]6 Y/ R. D/ J8 C1 q. C home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
o& i0 E+ V' o4 Q/ V2 C! B only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 l$ _& @. B5 L9 `
since about the middle of 2007.
* u$ L- n; A" I( V! {) M& P - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 U6 Z& \6 S. a& r# u frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 I, D1 S1 G& S: A- T4 r. M/ V) V
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; }' o1 e" w) s! Y' | largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 W9 z# ~% L2 ^' x poor affordability levels.
1 r8 c; @- M/ z/ D/ K( |/ j - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ |2 v2 i( W# X: ? Q8 }8 [
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 T9 m. ^6 B8 W* M# X
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
* v; r: x) _# s/ R A+ z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 I' i( m& l- L5 {& [
minimize any downside risks." t& p% ~7 c- `2 m+ f& d' U
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: l6 |7 L9 I; C V8 e) t n5 P
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 m( S1 F+ h; m2 }6 t, P
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ m9 R) C, t, [0 h; C
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- F$ m5 N2 u" T# r* _4 Y1 x" H q0 Y* E
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 g4 P: H7 r) E5 V; |
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% E. h5 J4 D% I Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% ^& w+ y4 f/ N3 O' ? far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 D3 W+ }, H0 V' R6 N& p6 P
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 W7 ^2 Q- m% w2 y3 B ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% w0 i9 a3 n6 o. g. G modestly in recent years.$ b7 P+ t+ A, k- u; Z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! K6 u2 i! w3 x; R3 l general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) W3 ~2 p, h$ r# t) i G# X0 m; E spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( ~, F5 H! n! z$ G6 m+ k( e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
0 R( X8 o- Y! m* ^8 D following two years of deterioration.4 @1 N3 V' v5 I) G
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