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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 z h1 Q/ D. {" J6 @3 T$ j+ o TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( D0 X* @) _6 W" F0 m+ X. w; |
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. c2 q* u* @/ k) K* u1 q0 N
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) J; G8 Z6 n7 iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 e# \! A" V. r, B6 Y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 S/ A; C+ C, O2 }9 l
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 [7 T3 M" o1 |! gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" h# D" O9 h1 C3 d& Q* |1 n Fmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" S1 {5 K0 u1 r' y
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. I& g2 c+ w( E% ~8 n7 f K' F5 wworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 d9 S& N% e, r0 ?* Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ t" w% t" ^4 `& {5 q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ |) i c; B% r5 S; k7 N The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* x2 j5 Z% u2 f/ rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# u1 K2 p9 g4 T/ J; Q8 ~2 H
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 d: b. Y2 N9 _) BAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( J5 P: d. _4 F" c5 r
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 q S' Z1 E% g; O) _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ y( d6 v' U G; p According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 a- {, b$ J7 ]3 g5 u$ [
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; {# e5 O' J1 g
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 [% j. n* ?6 a5 G! A/ l
historically depressed levels.
w3 }# C }: ` Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 L" G8 B" u- I& `/ B! q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% l( ]1 c3 u& L+ q/ Y4 ^! Y" y1 L
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 {* S( D, d h3 m' r6 n2 V4 S
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 A3 t/ F8 B7 N( I/ B1 r% Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! \. ?4 G; x$ _months ahead," added Hogue.- U, U6 t3 g, _* i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& f; O( z8 o% R" n% b0 lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 A4 S; g& [0 u& L1 q- c' X5 u42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ v( ^6 f# P9 w5 F The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
z! {) [% K) n$ R( W; k$ S6 fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# }; P, E0 d! m" l- @7 \! ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 ^4 {% ~& m2 L9 R
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 f, j) Y& `5 A! W/ N, s! `9 v
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, ~- a8 u- H" N3 D) f/ d& t! x# N( q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- n0 L6 m; L' J. [, z% qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( ^: ~9 p' l+ \9 Z8 y, Uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: K3 X" m% B1 }9 `( U' T& ]/ l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
^4 u4 W2 f/ ?! h$ O$ Z! G9 M7 M& gFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& |, F* s( U" e/ ^6 q! Y# c. H! a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# V* x$ j8 E: \9 `7 u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 {6 f$ @+ O2 X$ w8 n' k }2 v+ t2 t5 H" f% |7 n
<</ N% F3 Q+ j' ~$ e; z" i, a/ I
Highlights from across Canada:$ Q7 |) O7 C- l% t
" u$ U) p- ~/ c* C& r - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
8 R! [( x" r4 J8 D/ m; y% [ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ p; J/ V$ O. ?! D. C; X, k& F7 h
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ e4 C5 r8 k* ?! B7 n6 g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* u4 [( L2 k7 R1 v0 W; ~
since about the middle of 2007.
2 T$ m) s- [6 @& s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! f( o$ D8 o$ V- _9 b. P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) L: r) S* m/ ~9 S9 q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 S. U( f0 c6 ]8 U largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 z8 p' h2 \) A4 n; H, V$ `
poor affordability levels.
) {9 O5 `0 w* L5 r: ]+ z { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the4 g8 Q4 h% y$ ~* ?* J+ X9 D; n$ T
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and: T, |8 M/ m6 S, \1 b+ Q& U- K
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 j, Z% J; ?+ V Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. H6 o* q8 U" k! F4 v- x6 f5 N minimize any downside risks.( W& u: p% T9 T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! ^4 d* C5 r5 b) W8 \; a) r
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# l z2 }. j% [0 \
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' u- X7 B0 o O: u 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 G. H2 ~( q, N. ^7 G2 z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
_# q+ H3 J: b5 l% f - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. a* |* K- n* F! E) m q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus; B( H$ d: u" ]3 Z# b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) d; z0 q- S$ T0 o2 o/ s3 R
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 m" u; Y' \8 D0 P, ^7 a& u
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 p; n7 Q1 \ \) Z. X o6 X* b modestly in recent years.# ?1 H( k5 E2 P+ p7 G2 }6 _. N2 q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 U$ D6 r% W$ t5 d& _( f& \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& l' Q) c1 w6 L" R/ e- N9 ~ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. N8 ~, `, Q9 C( G price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 u0 N/ S, W; b following two years of deterioration.
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