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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 s8 L" j; l9 D; d% t$ X TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 j" W f2 G3 c8 Z' Fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& |; L$ ]* B: Jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 [/ o7 h, x! U y2 j. `
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.' w6 d4 `( S: |# a8 U3 U9 ]; `
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) R. l1 o8 Q' Q- }4 b9 J4 @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! G% z/ N7 U/ s4 t! @. U
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
' F( P6 [8 Y& E7 c- S! e) R3 @9 b1 @measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
3 L. ^1 P, _; B! b2 d RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, n0 }- Y: p) F1 f$ \ I$ Y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ X" t$ I" U5 L# h. ?* r' Dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; T) x3 C& _ [# Qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* t# H! p* s4 z( P; I
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 E0 p& L8 r5 P( I; t& }& T
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 m/ B/ T: G; w4 H' X
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% e" J2 D0 a% k* w8 r3 [8 ]! k) L
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' E( L+ Z; g1 \$ U9 N
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
; m( Q6 q$ | tthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ E1 L/ |% u4 r: s
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, _7 l% Q1 g7 }& M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! i* w% D$ F* o8 dthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 ]# B& S( ?0 d% y3 L' D
historically depressed levels.+ X4 r6 W Z. T" m5 J6 h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& T2 E' r2 l5 f3 M1 p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 [ e; k1 b! `# M8 d
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the w8 _1 `+ S1 n: \4 Z+ q% N
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" b7 K! [. J: ?. ^
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 Z4 ^& ~: y3 o) G1 s" Z
months ahead," added Hogue." Z1 x9 T3 ~' v6 ]& r
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& L# G' }3 b/ v1 Pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
# H! |2 X0 z% J" C/ N* B42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
8 \( m5 D6 U1 i4 S/ q4 L/ n9 h6 n The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
2 _( I: j) L6 Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' ^# v# w$ y6 g# k$ w. O7 Jcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- P) a7 h2 o+ i0 }9 j. V
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 X& u' T$ y, M! p9 y4 [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ f) i2 i% l V, Fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: x2 B4 Z' b% a2 Lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 ]0 Q, B; U) G) j# Y: L4 c
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* n0 D8 h# }: Z8 r/ ^( ~- L" D
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
X0 D0 _- w( W- C FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 V/ @+ h; l9 s1 scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 L4 m7 Q% G6 t: }$ Q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- p9 ]) y( b- f8 ]7 W8 r, c
+ B: e% E9 u1 j E& C <<
& @( N3 J6 t2 h6 r# ?/ s) t Highlights from across Canada:
' T& f3 {0 ^+ @$ _7 ~& w, I# k# O8 ?9 n# a5 H3 q, v5 p
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 x/ `/ z3 D, U5 G3 f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ _. E6 R3 b& E7 z* j home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' O) ?2 {! C* r$ D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 f' y) j! _5 L8 q7 r
since about the middle of 2007.( ?: M& W/ _# s; q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
( v% b, P/ C8 V1 L8 ` frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) l1 k R! t7 L: x9 c A7 v9 K
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 G4 {# ]3 k+ F. w. h
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 s t0 W7 V& y' |0 g5 u: g2 V
poor affordability levels.
- W) }6 z) L1 u4 F. ? - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' }5 Q5 j% R0 W3 I! Y vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& a( T- T* G% R: A prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 n; S. Q" Z- H9 T) M Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" R9 \) r; c" x9 d7 F9 {7 ~ minimize any downside risks.9 j# G1 B4 w' T$ f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
( g% _, t0 |! b9 W' S! R conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 a( G/ P7 j6 q' }) h* B unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early w% R/ `# V* Y. `8 D S7 l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ [8 c5 h9 J c% [; H- p* q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, a+ l1 O8 m/ K( @5 b& P- f* s/ L) K! U - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& E/ @; J* I1 x) \/ ?& |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ {6 t( O9 s1 x" T1 \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" \3 |, Q5 ?4 u0 A: ?/ k
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 g/ l. |, q$ [) w* v ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ T' P$ I5 k- Q' k modestly in recent years.
! g5 N2 }8 d6 q. m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( d- ]' s2 O# m) \, B7 F3 |/ q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ u- b; h& o' O1 H
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. b7 h0 D" e6 X. ^, d! y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) `' E# ^" G/ p" p) e
following two years of deterioration.
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