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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ m$ Q8 a( f* P+ h l% s3 v, J9 l% P TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ x5 f( e; w3 w: l" P) Y* Tmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 x8 _2 P1 {: l% t& \( P* s J
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& [7 z9 }! X! o) _0 q" m& A. Raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& E" e; }- d* W, J) P) c
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 V" u/ r @% F+ I7 S3 f9 |0 vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' \. v# s4 i( C5 u8 y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 \! @) V; q; a/ r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 h' k! `1 \& N/ o7 A/ t; b( y* r
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: e; i* E4 O9 d0 p3 w. t& Yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,* a) f P: P5 _; P5 Z9 ^8 F: S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 m! \& e, \; q. L4 Fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 \4 ]$ _+ v/ v# W1 j4 l2 V The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ ]% n/ k0 r* s* d4 w. }proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 _7 r4 g/ V$ a- Ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
3 e8 ?0 L4 b6 q# x' l* pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 ^1 c5 N( p! C0 i0 Z; x
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, f0 X2 K% `" }. N0 k9 Pthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 O7 i" E8 f! p! o+ Y; G A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 v4 \, k( A% I. Pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) N, j) p1 W- I) l2 Q
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at K0 R; H( `5 X! |; y2 P
historically depressed levels.( v4 c. \; [8 K! b! V; w- E: u7 N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: n) R# T4 ^9 o+ O; A9 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ [) k5 C% p: ?% g- W7 sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 k; Z; m- J9 M! C1 D5 V8 g4 ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! t+ D7 x4 T r2 U" Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the F- v& d9 w: `2 z- |1 j4 p2 {* t
months ahead," added Hogue.
' U# ^: l. f/ Z& p% h" J- ? RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 e0 Y/ F* b9 d- ^: n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. R, C9 H+ R* k42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 K( I0 f% \, w w$ b1 O The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. u6 L! t8 b x" q* Ra broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ | w7 ~8 l0 w$ W6 ^6 W/ I3 gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 r- o: _' r3 j/ g) z3 v) vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ ^, e9 z* `# i1 |; P The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" G6 J/ f5 ~' V( E! O7 Z2 _: k. N
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* z, b: ]$ G7 I. f5 ?/ z
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* n- b, C' B' a7 r) _* ?$ @
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 s% D# [8 x( T0 X) B
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. Z0 C/ W6 A+ a5 T7 C) O
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! N! R( e& Q# A: G, k. b4 ?+ F# C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, j# o5 G, m! E( ^per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; d S/ f N" k* f; k
4 Q8 k4 t" M& q0 k8 P
<<# m% I+ ^7 T/ S/ N
Highlights from across Canada:" [2 W: g0 a+ m' C3 c1 Z- T
" d0 f9 J9 [9 I! w+ S1 i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 X3 l* U1 s, g( @ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* s8 ?+ i6 a3 R" v6 D; O5 v home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. }" ^! i* A9 A( ]4 b" _ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( G# G" n" _7 V- U& L since about the middle of 2007. ~, I% j2 ]$ }2 l; n! W$ {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 k' b; }4 W! [3 J* _# L
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
! { m; @2 L6 h0 o# g ^ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: y" @, A3 Y ~+ F/ } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 X& B; f5 W& c; p$ L! _. L
poor affordability levels.9 d1 A: Z* @% o- d8 [8 l$ D
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! V. z7 p S/ z9 D vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 u& S6 d5 {; e; p: Z5 L: e3 s+ ?5 y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 Y, m# ~: `* x Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# q/ ]5 Q4 B$ Y# h3 ^2 r% w- P minimize any downside risks.: I/ E# @* n% |) X7 l5 Q0 s
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 y% z4 S% R$ B conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% b. h$ A2 o% j" A unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* _* H: D2 w K) I 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' I. P. [+ W: l( s9 x% u4 U
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 x; C' A5 h" ] - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 j3 [% Q9 v0 Y2 f, C; ]8 a
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; i% {0 K3 t4 D( y" F$ @% W n far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) M S1 e* D' v0 j8 f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ A$ ~: J7 g( g- k$ E m* b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ w W. |$ y6 d& O
modestly in recent years.' C5 H. i! e9 m8 ]
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 M4 A: E8 V& B. i7 j
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: K- [$ |& w2 S' }" ^+ h
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- d; U& H) I6 k4 l6 q' U2 `( j price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 o0 l7 n8 o6 j3 V& s2 \
following two years of deterioration.$ D+ [6 H) K. s0 [- x! M9 j
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