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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 s9 C6 V" g, O/ A3 ^# ^7 ?) H TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- y+ I! y r- Q% N J" `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
, w' g' S* q+ W5 \7 q+ Y' R" x2 hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 B7 h& ~) e$ Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ i8 q f: T* x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ v! Q4 s. v5 t# f4 m, Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 l( l" X. D% eimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 S5 m6 V% f9 X0 A$ U' Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( B- F A$ ~! U4 s RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ Y. \0 ~" {5 @2 y" i2 W! U4 [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing," a# R3 a! T4 J' A
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( [. t' L2 n* H7 `sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 j. f: [) k+ i* t The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- q9 p' d3 C3 u" i H/ g, fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
) @8 D- c- k1 W$ ?6 Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; i4 u4 s# X) }! c1 {0 R
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
+ f9 ?: w( Q/ b$ }6 M* Jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( A/ D" a* _# a5 E: ^* s+ ]
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 f2 k* _; L/ e, z1 q0 J4 Z
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets& K- q5 ?/ W( w% \- n: [
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 W2 A" t- ]) Z3 H& @$ E
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 b1 Y$ u% A! D7 W0 Vhistorically depressed levels." e$ c/ J3 D" d% @; D* [9 H5 q8 _
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 r. c3 F8 [* _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* ] g- D* e; g I
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ @# Q4 E; M8 p( Y: d" `hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 M: _& @( E" cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: M5 d. u$ a2 a2 Gmonths ahead," added Hogue.
$ _ S& D& Q9 `, u: l RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 \9 S& E( f9 R7 ]# n( @: C
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary f+ j( T+ s e T# W3 M U
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) b5 a9 Z/ y: |7 _) {0 P5 N The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; G5 j3 S' f4 j
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* l' Q5 ^( l: h d5 b2 kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 p$ q' Y/ o( t$ @2 P7 A
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 k2 G, p& v' }1 I6 A, D* w' \9 D The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 j. G0 F) d2 V S8 @) S, \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; Z. O* G6 i4 u G i/ a4 i, G
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented- \" G& p$ T% x
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: ^6 ~! y. r1 q5 K" n: H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ J) M' B. l) Y! ~ DFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 E+ w( h7 Z; l7 k2 z' T% T- l( wcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 @8 n8 a9 q$ Vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ n2 S7 [1 J1 a+ L8 B
8 K$ ~6 M0 p% h! m" \4 W <<
+ r* F! P& n; y' s) ^6 D Highlights from across Canada:7 @# H- D. u( X. q% {0 A/ A N, f" Z
, {0 z% L7 ~6 n' |/ q1 I" K# K0 R
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
% |; x$ D% C0 I% W2 e3 W R intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) [$ |% ~) o% w( ]2 z, m& f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! P/ d+ H7 h3 Y7 d9 g! Q o! H
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 a9 B( e0 ?4 H3 o0 [
since about the middle of 2007." o+ c! ]3 b7 S! |# \" x. c6 m
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- d3 E, D0 m& A" A frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& B$ k, x" v$ l& Z+ W. c8 G
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 ]6 P$ o4 r2 T5 t, _
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 j" ?- c& Q4 c6 t6 {
poor affordability levels.3 V% t. z. Y G4 t$ A$ u' Y
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% c% K: R- E4 d1 N2 T vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 v4 [! X' m) r6 M8 R w/ \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 @# C! S: E. q* D' c+ J% H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. p( u# p% j- @0 U minimize any downside risks.) v0 ^- t0 D* o. \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- F5 W6 r! ?/ a3 Z! O* X conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( B# }) u5 }+ @; _5 ]. t) |! x unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 j! N4 l6 ~* r6 B4 x! }" ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. F+ g7 x" y) t
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 U' d- \+ P" j1 u* P' d' x# c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 r, I4 S$ Q x
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ |- J5 {0 o% C6 T! D, X
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' z2 w: q9 D( G/ S
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 E! n$ z3 @4 E8 p7 r ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only W1 j6 K; x# z. J4 @
modestly in recent years.
: w% O* ^; x( m( S- R) N7 i( @ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, w- S6 P, ?2 ~! t% T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 c+ W' r$ j" v
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
5 L; A7 h3 i& v price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, X7 ~, a c0 x8 I5 @4 }4 v following two years of deterioration.
6 m$ q$ @- g/ W >> |
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