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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ y5 O6 y! J2 F6 r( ^) k TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ Q1 E# F( t, y) ` i3 ^
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* q& P4 X. g- X- M9 Agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) |3 r/ ^) i' S1 z/ y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; v9 n+ s1 N# F N2 S4 x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 E9 h8 q8 T% T; i8 K/ Rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ w, o$ U) f) V8 K1 o7 C7 f+ [4 qimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. h9 a0 M3 p/ f
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ n$ y# g; y1 F( V7 `8 w5 K/ _ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 k9 W7 {. N5 \/ h( G
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 J1 m6 T1 Z( x! ^) ?4 w6 v1 D. ^$ G4 zwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 u1 k+ R, n4 Q5 ]: Lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 d8 @1 D N. o0 F
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
) H5 ]% K* X6 }( \ G$ `proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 z8 s: j) v9 G* Z B1 r+ X9 u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. _( _4 a n4 o' v$ u7 `0 M2 }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 D# ?" I* C0 Z L6 {$ m/ m F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# D1 A! w* z- w% L8 s# T7 ]) C
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( H5 | m ? f, y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 ~. b) x0 X$ M$ ]8 G8 S) G- imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 Y9 b% l+ g0 z' Bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 T+ R2 `% k& U k+ e) P8 {( N
historically depressed levels.5 d9 X- \+ m& s. o! B2 p
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost W* z( z5 g- y; w% W
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 W; w6 U9 v2 g) rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: p8 Q- v, f; K) n4 W( B/ ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This* }3 ~7 e0 V9 c2 ~( ]
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; R3 p8 y! @2 smonths ahead," added Hogue.! X- s6 @1 o5 ]" M3 p1 S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; p8 M+ ?, e9 ~ ~) L" h# D& g9 }cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ d5 i& ]! ?1 W1 z$ u42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( [7 x1 h# L9 {1 g. F; z- x% ] The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" B/ r4 j, H, S/ }" ?0 _+ v
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, Z! @5 A/ h/ j& Y9 B
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
* F7 G+ k6 Q% |, X/ ~3 E( Ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 ^+ C2 N2 i% W( j1 N6 ^1 B The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 c, W9 l4 i7 V% X0 c3 Q' z3 G+ B
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( V% [9 G5 v ~/ V
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 K8 |8 x( L$ @: b( k6 }5 Q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ M3 @7 W5 c8 j0 u
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, E" S: @; Y$ pFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ t9 J' Z3 G9 I' r5 p2 a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( \! x& X9 z) u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% z) m9 y! l* f* \7 j4 {. @
( M1 ?7 Q% _5 I+ ^0 H( l4 k' m <<
3 c: h* X( C" ^5 B1 f. B8 ? Highlights from across Canada:2 d0 I: f- F% g1 ~3 F& f4 @2 V
# K* @1 l, d' A" K' F$ z) V4 {5 | - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
, T2 _- H4 A' \3 D intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 H% X2 _) u# V
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ J- W A5 c. E8 Z( C
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: B3 L$ m3 G" `4 F m
since about the middle of 2007.
8 h9 D- @1 |, u2 I0 l5 A9 ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 D2 d" T% L5 Q6 [- Z- [9 w frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* u/ {- i& y0 ^6 R9 h decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 _2 ^! S" g% o
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 d, H1 v% h* L. s7 }3 a
poor affordability levels.2 w/ ^. ~% f4 U. _8 X. q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' x3 R! e* E% r' y+ B
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& R" s; O7 F( R6 F2 W2 }
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( g5 B& S" x- P- } ]( J6 U- S
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 z# F9 P* T+ F
minimize any downside risks.
1 J* I0 l7 q- D9 K3 |: u# e - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, t3 s* {) |* ]* g0 {7 r M; i# r conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) B9 Y j- p- e0 R$ I# ^3 I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 E& h1 b0 Z8 [+ D 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& X; j% @, J9 N- ]" c2 m( W
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 s6 y% P% W2 I) j {- u& P( G - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 a* o$ |8 R- f/ n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ B2 s. S, o7 A0 U: i/ ^3 b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 k6 ^9 f$ |# n+ k6 [1 J
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. G8 H$ D3 t0 ?0 _ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 d) W9 c0 \! S' j! P) L h% _
modestly in recent years.
( x* l% q2 ~& r2 I; U' w- E - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. @# ?* I1 ]8 F$ N
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" O A+ g! z' g% H" V3 b
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& S( ~2 D2 S+ g price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
; w, q, P5 n7 [% H2 j$ k following two years of deterioration.5 N' q+ e9 j/ g% } [+ r K' N
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