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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 L: {) @4 ]- l, F) U1 B. h" D/ _- A TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" [' h2 A3 b% y! y. o. C
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive0 Q* K; `3 o7 ^, T( d: f/ @, y
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 S+ v6 s/ U3 N7 f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
I8 z; L9 ^8 a* d/ _) v% x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
* h: Y6 S$ h9 e5 X! z' o$ Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
* z( r0 j8 x A, ]% u$ g% Pimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ w/ R- F8 B! ^$ o- C
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
! x9 T4 A. t- Z6 x+ { l9 `$ S0 D RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. `6 R+ Q% Y, r* E+ `& Q+ ?
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, ^+ P! ]& \6 J% X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ C: W7 @$ X% _ l$ p% S
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 H) X4 ?2 m5 h/ R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 s! ]8 r9 G$ w! n0 ~0 `- Y/ dproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ |# c* | c9 @& Z, [. P3 ^home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: i, T' v! J/ d$ T6 @Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* @$ i; p4 W) J' bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; F$ g) W- I1 h/ Z! D
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& q O- Y3 E& K: }" c3 q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
* J8 e7 r* f5 z% Y# emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( \6 G& O8 w* Z! M, w4 @6 k* c
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& @. e6 Y3 o' C5 t5 s) i E* vhistorically depressed levels.
% z. h8 L& ~1 B7 S# P# y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 E4 u" O( y ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) r5 `+ B/ Q- iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! D$ h2 n2 i+ l, L; d5 x5 Chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( s Q2 D3 n2 Y* H
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 m& L& ^, `- C8 B% w7 n7 {months ahead," added Hogue.
8 s4 U6 E. r5 P1 o5 [. f" P* y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# K, I6 d7 o W, b) p+ n$ dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ I+ v, k/ S5 y. K$ Q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ W4 J- ?) Z- v
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 K, f3 Q1 X* S. x, A- C9 Y' \a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 ^# H" D7 ~$ A3 p0 j5 dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' S% _ r" x) S# h) V' Htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ @* g/ S3 N1 B& Q8 `, n' B$ m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 T3 Y* K, D+ S- X; B2 R8 N. `. q4 Q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; G+ ~2 V. |% h- k2 {( d6 rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 ?0 J# x( X" F1 U
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& t* {3 `5 k; F3 n. [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 B* `' }) b' ~' K; C" RFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# t+ W. w9 P/ U& w( acosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) s$ Y4 n1 v. ^$ O/ h
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 p! b( @1 v- V; K
# x6 X& L* Y2 o! A( t <<# o n3 u# V. b; w3 S
Highlights from across Canada:( t O& {6 Q1 }* G
$ L% B* G6 g6 \' K2 z6 U
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 Z9 g/ i8 A6 b3 M intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 T$ O9 x) \ j( k* ~8 R; N7 j
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 `# [ F" n" j7 O! t, G# V1 n only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. a: F6 R) h( ?0 s/ i since about the middle of 2007.
% d; k( T# p2 W: g - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 t2 q7 }7 }, t8 O
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) w+ A% z. g7 h decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. c8 W' l0 X0 q& b& w. n
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, z2 b# `2 o& A poor affordability levels.: }. F! F9 c, d# L6 V- l9 \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; \% ^: g* S- A* A- k
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 \% l; r/ r b* } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. n7 _7 a: }& Y# y9 F; T: O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: P! G& m! K: T1 S; A. I
minimize any downside risks.! y) y* m2 a/ h V. L4 i5 q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ s2 B& P4 Z/ L9 n0 B0 L- E conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- T4 k+ l( G( b0 k3 w" V
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* E* ]4 t9 N& S- U# S 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" \# F6 q, O( g7 O2 a+ o# w
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 v8 o f/ i* ^
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 ^3 j( [. y% R- Y: t4 Q6 v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 M* M4 E, G1 p8 z- x# h7 u: i' M far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- V; }' }8 i' T reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be( J& v4 E& x5 ~0 h+ a& R; g
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, A" J4 p; A6 c/ j. j4 H# O$ P modestly in recent years.
8 ]& W( V) B# L) |6 h+ E - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 h" Y8 ^0 z% Q: i general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 k7 G: n4 A+ `/ J0 T. y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward6 V2 p# k/ a8 l* x8 m: v' h
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 \1 m0 r5 C9 T( y+ q& Y7 y% `, p8 x) ]
following two years of deterioration.- Y e5 M" P& c) `8 p2 \. ~$ `
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