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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 q9 {' X8 X. k& w1 ^) X0 f
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- z& \/ g& f8 }middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive) |9 v9 [. I5 j9 o7 Z0 U) J8 W
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! g3 V% Y/ c: K; F! w. t0 g
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: P3 l4 ^% l* E6 @, V "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 Z2 h' m7 G9 \; n# m4 P8 Y6 Isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ P& C: m% @ C4 S7 d! ~; S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! Q6 n- w1 X( ]2 G6 Y0 V# [4 i) qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& [4 b1 l/ |/ T- @$ v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' C: o$ \: u" c( V& J Z2 n$ o
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# Z! i2 H& \; R% I: e. P, fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 @1 L. |# }, Q8 [sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- e4 O* c \# f- D3 z9 N The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 |8 [0 }. F( w& V ~# G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. P" X9 t1 a0 A, A# o
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
) h' ]: v- c# o; S5 I7 LAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the r$ J! F9 b: C. ^" f5 L
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 G+ v% {+ ~4 Q8 d! A! ^the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
$ c: V z, X: X8 j! l3 L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 k; @/ L O: K" S; fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% X1 D X4 Z, A" x5 T& A; n* v" K2 cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 n; m, |: O7 N' V v- w7 t) e
historically depressed levels.
1 C8 U% h" ^( A Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost( a/ y2 N/ `5 e5 c
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 x, k" Y. f" y, x- c0 d0 s" B+ e; oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% q- a" {" q( S. L& g4 zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- T. C, R# A3 p4 M
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 V3 i+ B: D. k: l+ [
months ahead," added Hogue.
) Z! X- N2 v, r/ l; B RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, t6 I8 F5 E( F4 l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) p0 ?; l+ G$ x5 t
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 V' h! T" q1 I+ ?8 U' n The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
; Z: l8 _* q7 ]2 j+ M6 ]. @+ Ha broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, I7 Z% U( k' y- O' h+ [- _# }
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 U w, F, t3 u& J) V* v% ^3 ~
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ t$ X( e6 s* c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 C, G+ ?5 f; k$ H- p/ c7 Q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 J9 d2 u7 c0 A( ?benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; }/ Z( Z- S5 A. s% y( D
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard- C; a+ O8 T2 Q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.1 ]8 T; [! t8 |7 G- w
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership j) j) C& E$ V; o3 L1 }' `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 \" h1 s; D. t
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) z, l6 `, j) m3 b+ x3 c' f& S
* W& n$ F0 L* v! [6 T <<
# N' U# v z; U- E, k5 L, K Highlights from across Canada:; h* u2 _' b0 h7 O; v" O7 D, ~9 X4 z
3 A8 l5 ?; Y9 C- ?0 p( r$ P' S - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has3 V6 }1 P5 n; ~0 P! z6 ?
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ d1 k: _0 U' Q) |) C/ {; y5 {
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, z/ O9 N9 B% ]" \7 c8 ~. g/ @
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 M! F! |5 S3 G9 Y4 m( E
since about the middle of 2007./ f) j P% w5 i8 O$ W( S. y) h
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the v5 }8 P0 y) Z+ B, b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 W4 S+ {2 w' |- D# e% s# [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 d- t) u: m- P largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 C2 g G7 n% B6 a# x( ?& F, @4 s8 w
poor affordability levels.' p! ^& a6 i' C2 U( s" Y
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! O% e3 K9 P' j0 O! X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: `4 P \7 G* H( e* [2 x! ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
Y# t+ `4 O7 Z( U w Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 G3 r) M+ Q. l) K6 @
minimize any downside risks.
: w& z0 a, q: W. x: x; z5 C - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# N; ?( o# j: A+ U0 F conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. S8 h0 [5 m% E' x' K9 U! m9 D: G unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) q' P$ l" l5 J+ o! |" c/ z) m
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ {4 ~$ `9 d/ K5 d! A being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 d; W1 c& Z- E* ?, _* K9 {" i
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in) s/ v r' l) Z9 l: i4 c( ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& B$ `0 L1 Z; T& S2 o& T' H
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up O0 u& p$ y/ j$ G* E! w3 P5 ^
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) ]1 R( v+ Y3 J* a1 Y2 [: x
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 u6 c- X$ i" e2 Q' T) Y modestly in recent years.
4 D( R( J; m+ o9 D - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: y$ l! Z( h/ ^4 m0 T0 P% D general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( Q# d- I/ \ ]! Q$ T: _ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ q; |9 g+ _& X1 h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* d$ ^$ ]8 g; k+ D2 ` X following two years of deterioration.4 R+ T# W9 |$ A4 p3 X
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