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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - d. Y, Y4 ]- t `: A
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 y. D, `- l% w) x: X: F
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 H; J; Y$ J. c1 k0 F" T2 }gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& p1 h( a( F0 C' `$ W; ]3 Jaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 ^+ [0 @ x5 y& j1 g3 z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 t2 C o" u& [said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; ^0 a0 d5 l! E7 q! ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% I2 Q% g9 c( K3 }5 b4 d, t5 j, T7 z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 h! }# l# P9 e1 D9 l! ~0 P. N# ?
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! B+ {6 {, E4 H5 g
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 W, n) {* f+ I& ]) ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ h# r: K( f# b' h
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ M3 ]. B, L0 H- J2 ]0 Y8 s R/ g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 K/ p: _) ]2 {( n" Vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# G" Q$ s7 Y) r& F- D/ J% Y0 V
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& v) D K. c9 }+ jAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the+ Z: j- K: q: @1 Q) W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) t' X; ~, T# \7 j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.1 c/ H4 e: m3 a; a
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( |1 w3 k" u: |( c8 {
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& D$ ?9 g( n# I* u3 Y5 }
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ \2 w' x. J. I4 Y
historically depressed levels.
# n' t3 ?5 p& [3 L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# A+ _0 q* R: q9 E: U2 Q j* Jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! ?$ U6 W& c9 S& V/ u- Q8 Bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! B% ^- l7 ]$ |" v6 R8 o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 |" b1 N4 v/ J4 Cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* z9 o! X" }! Q! e
months ahead," added Hogue.9 o w2 L7 y9 d/ L; W0 M# \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 l6 |+ a5 ]+ l+ J# y- H
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary2 ?6 r u2 f- b* \
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 ^ a! Z2 F" ]+ C4 L# s The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 Z' A' ]; J. z+ b8 x
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ j/ f# Z& }! E7 q7 @3 D% T. S6 T! O8 lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 T1 J9 i* d) {3 A$ j) Y% x' Atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 d# L% M1 x0 ~4 m$ ~6 i The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* u. D1 ?# r. a+ b4 @: Pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) J$ h* b. p" x2 J6 Y$ m* ]benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 r. `% l, d4 Q& ^
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. Y# a, f- u2 E) S! `1 \. N R4 @* \condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 i1 }% E3 {5 Y% [+ FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 I# t' q! K8 t6 X9 t8 q% y. i7 r
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 V; a7 g, K# |* R- G4 mper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 l9 z) A( s. ^: S6 j" [
. @& g0 ~, H+ \ <<
3 X2 ~1 }5 ]0 i. } Highlights from across Canada:6 ~3 h2 \5 r, `$ Z8 B8 U2 e
, x; H* ~& h! @7 A F9 t: i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has3 J" `# j$ l1 H
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, b0 A4 ] V g5 i5 ~! X1 V# @ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ j/ a0 ]2 m- |! F0 E2 P% n2 O; Z3 _' D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) s* T" d2 e3 X7 j4 O
since about the middle of 2007.# t& R: G& L @8 q$ d0 B
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 [/ f. L$ V8 k8 V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 ?( j- v) d9 ?) k T/ f6 V
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- \$ c% r3 g8 j7 Q1 Y2 s K! u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, F0 Z, F6 v, y4 F/ U
poor affordability levels.& e1 |* a' {5 v( j
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 i% b F: ^1 q* T
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
p* l4 b+ P4 k prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 J' T9 y. n4 `1 f _+ i9 q Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 x% g, Q Y) K minimize any downside risks.8 l9 x) o8 e' j# }6 @
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
f* T3 a. f6 z+ D4 e7 _+ m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 a. j- J& I D" r7 |6 r- S3 x8 Q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, ]$ L: u& S) V0 s) f, @
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# R$ l$ Y* D- |9 m
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 u/ i# g5 {' c# a$ U
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' }7 \/ o5 W. V' n; s# O+ | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* z& ]# M( A% x) `, d1 ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& g6 |7 \- R4 H2 H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 n8 r5 [ h4 [9 q* I ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 Q4 s3 {. O0 [0 H3 I) C n9 r" ]( G
modestly in recent years.
# p% u9 D* D& L- s- Z2 ^; ], _! R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' ]/ J; @/ ^5 Y# R% Q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot( g5 h4 T `- p% X5 `+ i. d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 m* W! G- P% t, n) w
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 _& Y8 m8 p, R
following two years of deterioration.
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