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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. # z9 q9 Z( M1 T5 s$ n; d7 ]6 s+ z3 `! T
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   F/ i. J0 ?  g2 I
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' o6 I. _- Y; ~( U

' D4 }, ~2 S9 Z3 ~4 O* U6 hNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.0 R7 k  k' |/ y9 ~, x
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , C) L  O$ \  I; J5 R- P
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& s3 q& l) p1 A0 E& L( f; J

8 U5 P+ F! T- O- I" }/ [6 bMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 M- \% u1 N: f; {2 u9 A
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

$ s" f4 V3 |. l+ W( A9 V" U+ @5 O8 Y6 x+ P) Z) E
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,( ]; S# {4 l: ~" A' c: M" w

; L; e6 F" U, F1 n& }1 @[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. @" s* \  H5 S
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. s) _$ x8 L6 {  N2 W8 {5 O( @跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

6 p4 V, c1 ]! Q( ~# P1 E( R很多人都回学校深造去了
: N8 D7 W- Z  h! Z, B' [嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
( }% U9 z9 @4 r+ j, v: @8 LWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. C5 ]% X9 ?" X4 @0 W/ h% D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( D3 N2 l4 w/ E+ @% r9 t  I4 `) d' j  qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 Z0 l+ I2 x& F" g/ I
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 a" `8 w' |2 b) J6 [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ ^4 v( G0 Q0 L+ ?" Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 S. t$ t/ ?' ?' h0 W6 _the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! J: N. j) L/ [" S9 z; T
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous, k; m6 w7 T- k$ k, C" ]
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: {! ^2 C) S4 c8 K" P$ `. ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# e- f9 ]# N* Y, C. C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 x" v: X/ @- E: @% d3 A4 k) Q4 n7 `prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( P/ y, X( h- }  p" g
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 D) z' E  N8 W5 N2 v! zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  Q  o( V! B7 ^1 m: e7 w/ P' d
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* e& `0 X3 y, {, ?5 z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 h7 N6 ^: c" J) Y. nEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 L1 E* ~$ ]+ i7 A' ]( S& P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 e% ]0 R0 Q0 v2 A2 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- ~* h$ S2 q8 I0 o9 b+ nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; R* I5 m: \: b4 X1 e$ _1 vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; z0 N$ q& F2 |( p/ ~& v  Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
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clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" D9 ~4 V1 a" `  p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 ]1 |5 z: m/ m1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
) J4 z+ Z8 @) f' [. `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 q9 n/ [( e( i5 V" j6 j( {, |buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  T9 M  k4 `9 }  ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- V7 a# B( D8 A, [
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ n, b' A: {7 m6 \3 T0 L( p7 U2 cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 k, X- Q6 p" j6 o. d
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: @2 u8 T: d( [% L' x) e: l
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" s, X! b% ?3 B9 n* p6 W  {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) V6 Y0 I! c* S2 B& `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 M% V6 _% A& o3 u/ n5 [# N) H
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 b% t7 m2 f# f8 vThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* N( T' X0 ]0 F& o. I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ l7 ?5 }5 R. z3 c) ~/ `- x4 B
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; R- F2 A! s4 f& F. }" r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 W% o1 \2 N2 R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, K0 j  _1 u" g; W5 Nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 c4 p. g7 _  ?- {0 A% Gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( {5 f0 F' P! Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 G& q0 Q5 s2 `) ^1 P7 @& g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: E4 {. O5 D( Oresale price in February is evidence that past prices) H: z/ T. D) n$ O' t( J# z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& ~) M% e, }: a6 Z4 f/ F4 ?1 Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- ]; d2 l2 F$ E+ Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ I* w( k! c  S- RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 W0 u% L- b. m5 l2 ]
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 M1 f/ w5 W) y# d* f' VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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0 ~5 G8 [. o/ {) G' `( p' C7 G9 I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. / `; k- H; C1 r
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( v' t1 s( F1 V: d; V7 f
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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