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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ n' S* u# ^5 x/ I& E9 w; G
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# L+ z& V( t) g+ R" r! \
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. U0 K) R' N& B0 ~0 W. vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) [) P! { }, ?# Z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 V7 @& o8 T/ \. m; aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided+ c- A1 u' B9 ]( w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' G% j6 F7 P% X& `
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 @$ l. W, _+ L' F: c2 umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous& m7 o( o2 u; I7 [' o
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 d& w% g6 [* X( q$ h" C! q1 B
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% t) p. P7 o% N
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; p) C) S' ` B Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: u j/ U1 R' p) n& |
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% k4 v" C- B8 j' P! l6 i: k
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& `0 ^& w6 _; i) v+ R30,000 new households will form in the province during1 k1 Y/ P( @* X8 E
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- Q; g+ @9 a" M/ lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 [9 z% {2 ~- d9 }& R+ M/ S+ Bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. f. C0 R' |$ Dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! ?& Y/ G2 ^/ _. |. s! Q% x
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 Y! D! l8 x8 thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) [+ k, M. L6 L7 eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ E- v% R, ?& g* {$ {) H5 E. H7 tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 K U/ o. h% r- o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 Z3 W; c3 a3 R5 |. n' d* R) Q) P
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& M4 R! V% j; a# [3 o# b
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) s( M6 j; F: Q5 u5 H, ]
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 T6 o9 Y6 L# K1 \8 F- x" K4 c$ y( ~buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. M' h) Q6 B3 y# q4 X$ ]% t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- F8 _3 G- z; f& c8 R2 Y" vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( m7 K( e7 ~. |
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
0 g4 q9 R5 j& W; p4 |5 |recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the Y- x+ [2 M* a; o! Y9 ]
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 N k# F* X9 O" M* u5 j4 vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# V* b) T7 f5 n3 Y5 q, {
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' P6 D& J( `5 Z5 v0 N- N) R" m9 C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 z+ X c* d* G. Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* \4 L5 Z# o D! x! D, cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; U6 g5 g6 u) o: Q' ^8 m+ o
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 }0 p# K7 _6 E% zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 `+ ]$ W# y( F ?
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
* S+ q1 s; w5 E; X- `$ ~7 Cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 h1 R4 [* e/ K, l5 m+ H' O
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 P5 m/ u2 V& v' r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ r; }5 r8 j* k0 t( N# tThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 a7 {4 R, V+ e# I O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. o; B2 o: w0 lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 U- S8 V4 v8 j9 n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' m% K4 B+ {- H+ J
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! q: @5 K& \8 i$ _6 t& D, h5 C" {. GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: s1 ]/ M- V# M+ ]+ Q5 x* C4 d; Bleg down over 2009.
4 l3 Z, _0 ?1 p! [ l( |9 ], J
$ D& J2 R. ^" N5 ]8 h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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