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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ U; c' V5 E/ r, @4 _# ~# g, g/ gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' g; X$ O p: N7 C" D& {: Hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 {9 \ Q. m6 k' V) {9 z; N" Jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 O' p9 q% _$ g2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ `! z. c7 E$ N7 T) C# _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ t+ y4 H \* e$ u9 efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# w; Q) w \4 Q- q( Xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 m% E/ f. h j. z+ Lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 G, H+ b3 U( X g+ E; ]+ opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 Z" D& q: e2 b2 |' Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) @- E% p" B6 T% w0 Fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 b; ~+ D5 b9 b6 {6 g
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, Y' d) `' Z0 h/ ?1 q5 V E* wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: s" ]3 z9 V' a: fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! ~0 }6 ^# k+ F/ P0 p
30,000 new households will form in the province during! J" Y' W/ E" s7 l/ \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ x% O$ o9 R1 B. D9 x6 y+ {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* c* I0 [' i- C/ \
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# f' d: F! s) H9 j u6 o9 n, t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta k, d5 T+ O% X$ g1 N
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# [2 e/ s" D8 U8 o1 s3 e8 ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 D0 c1 X% D2 g5 I" o: Z% jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# y- L% v5 O. q. C) [8 V3 ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 i& N- ]2 p; Q3 z* t- q5 Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ G' p' r& o6 \& f
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# Q) j/ q/ ~0 {/ |' h% H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 \( ^% ]; h+ J2 ^, D5 w
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
' t* J/ b" A5 s% F: U/ p# d- gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* [' L: i/ a0 ~& ?8 \
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* w' H- X! k7 }: }; y8 x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 Y" x! j7 g. P: @' F7 |0 ]1 z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) P" E6 P( M. U' @/ K, A! B. B1 K/ l0 Vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ |. f6 a! C4 P. l( g9 Nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ h, w: I$ T$ X V3 F9 R
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. e% y f1 N6 ~8 {0 {& S$ m, ?
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 ~( c3 d* ]$ i! Wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 v2 u* i5 u8 A4 t3 }
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 A+ ]3 O* G9 [$ d, a
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 |+ E% C# k* L/ ~Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: M, y# P. g: C6 ~4 o; V$ E! ehousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* p) C! H, @; Y+ F3 U4 b' ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 b) j4 @, W9 i$ I! |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 W: G4 p' P' a; A# }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 E$ n" a8 j( qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( [1 e, h" p( @4 `" S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 W6 N( N5 k9 x% c# _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( n3 s8 d: ^7 W* m2 Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 I- k2 p: P& {- O+ A
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& y/ _; }, `' a7 a; adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' \8 R; B+ h4 ?7 u$ n* Q9 K- X; aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% [7 W/ _9 o+ T/ _6 M
leg down over 2009.' p5 B/ c7 j+ E) c' U
5 P- l# k% k( i G4 [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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