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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% g6 r) ?& }# I! LWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. J, n, N" s `6 ^0 Hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! P e7 h& L$ lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 W# m/ T+ P' q4 c% b K# z1 u2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: [3 R+ I4 ]3 e* S; X x( M$ s; D
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& M* Z# z- T3 x# c$ X' l7 b& @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; ?, p% a+ p8 P* k9 t
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, m/ U G, N4 r7 J8 Amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. L U* [" M& ~5 X* D4 v$ space of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: g6 }0 q' n8 Z% g5 y Oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' o. ]0 A7 N: v6 W. \
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- G0 p# V* t% _9 x( @; f; g& J+ Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
Y& ^" y) M/ Z& b0 T" ]/ {year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 K$ z' r @; Y& D3 q( Mhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' w# h& p$ N9 ]4 H, }# D- @7 |# c; i30,000 new households will form in the province during8 F& {6 r! Z5 P' ] n2 e3 q- b6 t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: {7 M2 |0 c5 [: kEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 R1 o) H' n s1 |9 A! dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% f8 j# M/ }5 ^0 w, |. P
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* i' z$ l7 w# h! N# D4 z( U
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) {. c# p% i& T9 S( k
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! o7 p% F" F5 V) S2 P) L6 P+ r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" v3 K( J) A/ y& q7 G% osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 z( A& z( [7 y& {! T9 U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* Y+ s) o6 s$ L9 {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ R8 E. C! C9 V5 S* t. t1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* t; ]" k- W# S( u" q9 V( q, j4 Z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ i' w* C* z- t' q& Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ E. _% w5 E, f& d( U/ w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 n5 e% k3 p9 D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) T9 z+ @% s8 t4 H9 h/ |$ \( i/ dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 r7 _: S' h/ R3 h5 W" s V" c6 ~% qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* {2 @: P! H$ h- Jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. E; U& s( w2 ^9 _! V$ N6 e# b6 i
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 R3 r2 c% s1 ]0 Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' [! W( ~% } T5 k7 d/ r% x( ~- Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( W7 |: D! K2 N" K5 n: A7 A& \+ ^2 X4 h
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 F& M# h2 a7 l7 j# C; q' D' Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ e% \! V# V! l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) a P( G; l& B: h3 f1 Dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# ?" d+ s3 E+ W& x* \3 trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 i% a) D, f# y2 R9 c! [prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ C% }* e) x( [0 m N- u; c) H
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 T' ?2 M5 l( @! lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ G7 w& g- b8 h1 h" s4 G3 ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, c, z/ ]9 G g) c* f( gresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. D4 D" ?5 x/ T; Z7 t) ^* Z- r" f* wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. T, I* O! i0 v" u; Z) t4 O* qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 Z' E$ r: P8 ~% m& W$ c
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 C/ v& C, L1 X0 M: S1 n5 n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. j9 z, P0 D: b" r2 O! @leg down over 2009.
5 f- f( N! I5 I9 P
3 m$ j3 S I( X! ?4 C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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