埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2421|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.' n" w4 q; Z7 S- U
! P8 E. u7 ], }9 N; V' P' l
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + |, \9 ]4 a& Y" I
1 w5 e1 r: A8 C: T1 g
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
6 @7 a+ h% M+ J+ d' R* ~1 M: f% w% x+ E$ S
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 x3 N2 R( v( _# P/ q
0 V: Q$ n& N) m8 V$ N, h2 D! k
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) o* f2 m8 f6 Z$ D7 f( v

9 s  V+ E- Q6 m: @' h2 r& pTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
" A0 r* R6 U( e9 R: z* W# h! \! h. K
) A  m) D4 {1 V+ ?"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.   R: f, S) G$ A9 l( ~" k
! A$ ^. g/ \% U& \# U
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
9 z( Y' T9 p% l+ @+ g* o. N
- M# p2 d) f" m& y" a. LMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % O9 D, D9 i& e. @, w- m/ M- M% ]
& [$ i/ `' r6 S
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
9 ~) f. Y0 A( m- o' A

0 n6 V" F7 g" E% HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 |0 T* f% n1 @  B! u
& f) E) Z* M8 ]( _/ [/ X
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。! v, T$ |' [. }+ F  h* K
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
7 t) _: L& o" ~0 j, C0 L! g- `( T9 O- l) C8 l1 f) o- \
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
3 f5 O4 ^) a4 m1 L$ b- U( w0 E/ b1 t跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ ^! Y5 n8 c) ?6 }( l# c很多人都回学校深造去了6 y2 s& t" w5 H2 I7 g( g: M+ m
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta8 f$ Y; p/ t! O3 D
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its  k! s# o! L4 L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 I$ h3 C! e, n% J9 `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, m- K- m/ A  `! Y- w
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' ]8 k. t5 N8 y( [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; ]& ]% N* c# P' X' r# S( Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& @$ G- h7 U. s5 |the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& l0 X# {- Q* O: M1 d( v  C# Y+ |may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 T* i1 D# L3 {* T: p6 U: {/ q* H# K# ]pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ [6 s. f% e) g, C: `# R
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* r, [1 B3 t7 I, |3 B1 Y' ~to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 e. F; g- D8 q. B- K$ C( w
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 S' X+ Y' O: `2 Vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) C6 @9 S2 ?; ^! Z7 ~
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
" V" O5 B) O0 |30,000 new households will form in the province during3 ^& L8 c  I2 U* z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# _& J2 J* X' L3 X( qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' W% R6 e( W) phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 |9 I+ t) \) J# ?during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ y$ k; l3 j# q1 y: j% I$ khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ v# ?% u1 S2 y* V2 k
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! o! y0 q' V" C& U8 @* H6 m3 r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! N5 q. K- l' N$ _6 ~! a
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 J* x5 h7 `' t0 q2 n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 p3 I* J& D4 d7 w" v. S7 qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  }6 D0 d2 F; j1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! M: f- B/ w2 i/ u
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) l- t6 E: m; e7 q; Rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! t: I" n* I  R4 W' Gtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 x8 Q8 W5 }: H6 ^9 j4 {
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ S# _+ I, W3 L" A: |
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* ]6 ?$ Z7 Z9 `, b. M/ C( _
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! e# t0 o- ?5 \5 {! I# S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 B6 V, w6 c4 u! z$ X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% i, ^2 B# d8 \. b+ ]
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; S1 j0 q9 f% [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 d& v  Q, t$ g  P+ m! \, s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( b% R* J# g% ^* e6 B" xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." m9 R3 Q6 h6 y0 G( H0 r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! t! _7 i+ }! Chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 o! j+ k* W  d+ z2 z- `
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 a" J$ A* h$ e/ ?. S' z% |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 ^7 k3 U( Z, b
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( P* B" v) V: S- l( N1 Q; @4 v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 Z0 L! m/ y6 I% JThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- T" k# e: @) E0 s1 D* G7 B2 K
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 F: Q% y$ a" g; W" a+ `5 F4 S- pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ G# @" A5 ^+ c5 }) m- b6 ~homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 B, I# C8 A& F/ L1 K* e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- @  W0 ?' M+ B7 nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%& c7 z1 [7 e$ ~4 c/ H- n8 j2 r# g
leg down over 2009.3 P, o9 f$ y3 H
$ n) v' @5 w& S
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" R) U8 t0 J; }$ FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

5 O4 L! Q; A" g  W. n
& b0 [3 j3 O% n& F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; N# |0 t8 U4 F6 K3 i
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
* m/ [2 B8 w& n4 o8 V8 d
* p5 D( N2 ^# u- t! L* L5 p: Shttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments% f0 M' A% L+ k- N# w! l! I' N
. d- k" o- W/ h1 {/ k' J. e: g. I
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-5 00:31 , Processed in 0.166986 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表