 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta" F2 ?& f; ?. y# K$ J. A* J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ I; s0 K C L: l4 \boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# k$ e! b. S' f1 P) C1 E: ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" R0 B x9 _: B3 x. q# L* h
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 d/ a) h+ w% Y. Fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ {2 P7 w2 ? y! v6 _from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. r9 s8 Y* A1 V. o+ wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) V% F9 ^4 K& {, S! Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. e* X. K. s& n7 i4 z; {9 u6 g
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 b W! {' y4 S! v) j: R Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 Y2 Z7 v! } V" V$ O5 K3 j5 }, K
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( d3 e8 x) _+ [" [8 O4 Zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) X) E% a5 D" @, R) [) gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 x/ X: O, @6 x* V( p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* Z& f/ [, |! q/ x% P; Q8 f! E6 e
30,000 new households will form in the province during" A2 Z, _% T' J; H4 x5 `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! X. s8 u" g. T( Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ g7 t7 q8 O b. ?. C6 v2 Lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 _. j1 N D) K+ [7 j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* n" R* K; `/ z& m5 ^& Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 B" G ^6 `- X Y/ H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( s* q- y% |( J T, i7 Pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# v- s5 f+ ], z8 a8 }9 I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- M5 e% e6 ~9 e% R+ j7 K
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ Q" ^, ?" X; s5 B0 qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 Z5 j. k- c3 g+ h4 l% P- i8 M
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 d% V& b7 d! f* o: Nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' Z% `6 K+ g$ Y( B: X0 F
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 @6 d7 I7 f. n: W/ F K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 l K% S9 W. Q+ h" q' n( J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" `% t; A6 ^4 ~/ y4 S! }unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ U4 Y+ h7 ~6 G
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& _1 D: k" L7 D0 l! F
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 ] f8 A8 f2 s/ ^( t
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" {1 Y/ y. V) g/ b. T
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 n# s/ Z* F9 Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( F4 _: v7 N- j5 y5 r/ i
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 G# x) z: @4 o% T
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ F& L$ ~5 x: I% l5 K; o* D
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) f( m" f7 H7 m; Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 z9 \0 I$ [& j2 h. g8 mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! t# O# h0 ]4 `) v, [8 I2 y7 O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 M! o& C9 v. K. R$ U3 `6 v4 h& b7 N" c: Ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ m) o7 G. `5 c( X3 F. son average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, P+ g& M7 ~2 u/ OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 g1 r4 ?* S2 Q3 r+ S; M( I2 Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices1 S' A ^, n* t+ U( y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
C. z; Z1 k" T% N$ whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 c% r, y9 a( _" b5 e; U7 Hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 x) [( M. E2 R2 I6 xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 T9 J* h' O3 R/ M4 G1 ]# X
leg down over 2009.0 _$ U* v5 Z8 {. L
& f* Z8 ]7 l* S! K$ n+ V% t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|