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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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/ h, L& E/ ?$ w: ~TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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, G( R; b1 `+ m"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % ^1 s- f/ I4 z8 H  W- ?, @+ Q

, ~/ h. H: ~* j) \: S. RNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 j- G7 H. [6 C) b( ^5 U

% t& s/ ^6 ?" A/ _, C3 {TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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# x0 e0 r/ t4 z$ A( @- c"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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1 |& @/ U. |/ b- @) I+ ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.3 ?& P& x$ i9 }( o) O

$ f" p6 f" G! m! D# T( O0 WMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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1 [% ?1 i( z* Q* b4 Z& N) ]9 sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,+ A6 e7 q( H" G* Q0 y" h2 c# h; x
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  d$ C; Y& _& m' o3 D8 H 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  n- ^% {1 N* R9 L跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了( z$ p, _3 W; M
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta. _. x7 k0 w9 T  J; w1 r
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# ~7 U/ R% S& r% ]2 }" _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 c" l1 b) k, @* ^0 O, E. u5 Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! ~' y* ]* u2 W" D2 D0 @4 Q. E4 {
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% i! R7 a4 X9 S) D& T4 F3 iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 K, C" C$ V/ @* O* Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 R$ M3 m( T, g) x" ~
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; z+ A" c  w' {- w$ n" H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ [4 D& T( N% I) _1 F* ^
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! z6 i& P% A& z, y: H4 G" ?9 f# hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 L- G+ x% N, Q8 K* I" \
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' h4 c6 r( P# }. d) E. H
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 d: g# X' f: M# ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- R  ^- T$ w" W5 O" dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! N! E8 ~5 C3 f0 Y1 F$ ~( M30,000 new households will form in the province during* A$ a1 h; @( J3 {! h3 p  ~* o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 j1 r- ^2 K2 u# ~4 M3 b2 ^1 r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ [& @0 A2 E# O& J! a& Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 e% M4 B% z: {1 i0 H" M, f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 e% c2 J! x" x/ Y3 e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 D  p- l9 W+ b5 b! B$ O( Chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 y" X+ f/ h( Z: g+ e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; l7 q, C) A. e$ N0 N+ j+ Asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% f% o6 }7 R4 t" p; w: e! Zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; r4 H! O. N' d" c9 x2 c: c  d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 J+ W/ Y9 m' N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 {: m- `9 J1 x- j3 M/ k$ rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 F; ]$ Y% S, N: Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 U* s/ s  Q" N; s* E. P+ ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 n7 p' T/ E; n  n# U; Q; A3 Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  i) M7 _# h  K! [5 S3 Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, k& J$ m, ~: i5 Z& D( ~1 k+ {' ^
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) M2 P% y: r$ X# ^& E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% f5 l- K2 x) N2 mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 l( U0 W/ v* n0 L* ]
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* l. u0 m, y, k6 w% j0 D+ i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& |4 V" \  H% h, f5 s5 y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
+ Y7 ^: E6 i: d3 s2 q$ \* gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 |+ H- G: v& g9 s8 wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! a7 n# j* W6 G8 O( w& t
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 u: k" F& m# h4 frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 n* h& f$ D0 B# ?* j: aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 O& f9 n5 f4 T  n% Y; x" hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 y' X9 H. E4 Y7 a$ s
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 T2 K/ o1 {* e; M9 Z9 R1 i0 P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 r% i  p+ U/ Q, }9 \resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. N8 ]8 w  s0 b2 k- A) Hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" H; Z1 p0 Y- \: N7 V% F- w9 r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’  S0 e$ `/ B! _) k7 R4 W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," O: H3 X- _5 B0 r* X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% a  Y3 J" u$ `8 M4 |1 Bleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: ~, ]0 _" R4 R2 q+ T0 z8 @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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0 k1 p( R5 g; [" `: f  }" |1 F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% v7 v9 @: v; ]5 @% u. d- c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子' X, o( _+ x0 [5 Y+ j! k4 V6 O
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. Z# n1 u" N& ]. R9 f
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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