 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta! @; Y/ U0 A) H* Z$ Y1 W4 I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 A" D) y/ R- B# z) Q2 uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton I k% |9 X( |+ d0 }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 K# m( A8 Y/ R) o. |% U* Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 }9 D/ J: {7 sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: \% s7 G2 Z# f0 ^9 Q" V" E bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& F- \7 N& P) l& tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ m e% Z* @! @1 r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! u6 |" Y- f2 I) w7 B5 s1 N4 ^5 `3 X
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed q0 A( b! a, o- Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ d4 S& N" i/ r8 d" J. o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& b9 Y- q% W; l
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ e" D+ V \8 v! D$ Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 N* D% w% j3 i P9 z1 ^+ M6 y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. {+ @2 h, L. F0 b, ]% K S# R5 s
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 j8 @7 |0 H" C% F' O* e" S2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& U h" d/ {2 J* f2 y) P: T# qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' ~0 O+ j2 b7 {! A0 w; M& thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 N+ \9 }& k. T: X+ e( G# g; J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ q5 V I* `; [/ m0 g- X6 q3 \has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) P/ ]5 F" H& {: T2 S1 G Khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 l4 F$ x3 a5 uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ B" T3 x: b" Y, K0 y: l1 W" Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 J0 e0 v4 m8 P+ @% S& \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& s, x: @: i+ A% ^$ I3 d5 Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" k; \ |8 B5 z0 q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 D$ P+ ~ _( e( C; n1 w, O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! [7 r; F& \, _) l! T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ R2 ^: j; S! z$ [two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% ^+ _9 d, s" G: j* k: @* x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ |, `6 m% e: ^# P" [# |unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, g& e: C- A4 c3 W1 L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the r% c: j! B5 i. P6 } r1 ~
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, k4 m- v6 H2 I, X6 umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 S3 R# o9 h4 k' cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled% Z1 p4 [! ^/ Y! L9 u2 L
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 z4 U, o& n3 ^" D9 G8 S: v' K7 uThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& U1 Q, u1 ?( Q: B6 vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 X: J d/ L/ }1 i# B, aAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan: n6 K% k& K* A7 @, I' \
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 N% U, u6 V, z5 {: e, Irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
% m0 J) C' w; s, X' V0 pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 C4 F4 P/ b$ Q& _" k% A
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* F9 {$ v$ C6 ?
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* A/ K; K9 J: Y: j' n2 H5 I0 fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# j0 @+ I" O% l# I( c$ x4 ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 n, V3 {* V* g! r) r ~9 s3 }( h
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 q% u7 d; L0 @. s' \# C& Ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 f$ O2 K4 A, t/ i' q0 t. fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 O4 k9 h$ C" n" z9 R0 ~. lAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 ?$ S9 {6 X- }4 C! r- t; [
leg down over 2009.! J' Q( h3 L" l. N
0 U8 M9 n9 g% _9 ?: D" b( k
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|