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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) P) Q8 q1 U8 h: c( k5 u6 `- z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 l( y y& B7 }
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* b- O1 [9 \- O! i* p9 V" r8 `
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 X8 g5 M$ t6 [2 J
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% _" l6 O0 R" Z9 S0 uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 F( T8 x) K" Y& K3 G4 x+ Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 \# k: Q. W7 D
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" z7 `$ }6 R0 L8 \5 L( a b9 u4 y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% K U7 D$ D/ ^ n- g1 l
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 W+ i7 G5 w; A8 H8 L8 ~0 F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% e" `/ n- L! z+ Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" X) e2 z) i+ J& \1 N" Wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ C- Z! ]$ k1 z0 F) e' Zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# z c. P* f9 e1 \% G. Mhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 I: E. n7 \" z. L. ]6 Z30,000 new households will form in the province during
# D& s' y* e$ H( |5 a+ d, T2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# W. L( v. @5 a# N6 G2 \' R% Y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( u8 \: G+ U" W% @* N8 Zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ o3 y& `% |/ q* B+ Q1 ^, a+ }
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
4 w( f4 j& \+ h! P9 q/ `, Ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 `$ u" c) s; B' v$ A+ f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 S, G* b# |2 V0 }$ b7 e7 g, b9 }2 P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 Z/ U, {3 j# x! P% c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 L6 Z5 S! E! S- h, z
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: Q* S; k7 ^ R* c! b# b8 ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) T. X& E& J# H3 t, r1 H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 W4 F% f. Z- asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* R- B8 W& {8 O3 I7 S% B: wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 ~3 h; t: B% a% @3 e5 ^% D- k% Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; Z, O( x3 L* \! K+ j9 uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' P I6 L0 {. C! e1 L; V B# {1 p, ^unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 f4 K8 x3 \7 ?( I
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, B+ o7 [7 x$ s& x( uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* G, U. m k$ D o2 f
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 G8 {% f! S) H! f, X8 p
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 t! j, M- _& M# ^3 c
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 l) w3 i* L9 e% GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 _5 Z. w9 n' ` C6 Tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# X* y, n, a' N* O# s
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 {0 G2 {% w: V6 I
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 @. ?( S, o8 @3 N+ j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 b4 }) ^$ F/ N$ d* Y5 A; U
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- b, y9 q8 h$ r" H, j' wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. e: n5 I! w+ X% m* b; M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( X9 X% }3 A0 e j# j8 b7 rThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 S8 I x- D+ _( |% z, _% T" _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices( @8 c/ P X9 y; K7 Y" V% z/ D
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 C4 k3 a0 t0 j/ N9 G$ Zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* m5 j$ R* @$ |* C0 A& Sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 R8 W6 c# a, i- O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# m1 L/ h9 D7 M! q% z
leg down over 2009.2 M! Y g w! T' J( A
. a9 C {# E+ [8 u9 R
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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