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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
& z" B# ~8 S5 t1 `Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ Z0 `; a# `% U9 W6 sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 x; t7 f: g8 Q3 z+ u$ v( J; Mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 Y5 R5 P% f( I2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! j4 f, g9 t$ I. U" G3 n# Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- ~9 s4 f5 K, Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ |% T' @2 F# F( sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' J9 t3 r7 I2 M' {. k' U6 nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, m0 ^ M# e9 x. V' H- O) Qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed c. [- w B% i- r+ g5 ^% ]3 ~
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. w v$ `" _, N& {+ j+ y9 [to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" F% N' y6 \# D8 [* t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 @' p$ ^) ^7 M( X9 b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 }( B+ \3 j1 t+ v. `% k& Thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! K$ N f( \& v4 d$ u5 B% G5 E1 _; c
30,000 new households will form in the province during; Q0 G2 @5 U7 K& @* }( D) {
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 e, E# C# _* B& z& k( LEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) ^. K$ t' X6 t2 B) U+ Zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ Z r5 r9 ^6 W/ s9 wduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ E$ |# k& m q) j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 W* ]* g% m/ g" b* _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, i3 w7 u w5 P# j8 \9 B. ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. M8 o& u1 k6 f9 q2 h# I5 Rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 Z# g9 m3 _3 m6 o Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- y8 q/ W R5 B& ^/ Bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ H6 W' V I/ F h$ ~1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a A( d0 [- E( S3 f T5 @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 g5 c( b5 ~2 t, ^" p2 H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ o. @. Q' l3 ]- g) Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 a+ Q" t$ q) L: y5 xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 v% t) u9 O5 c5 q3 o7 X
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 ~ u! Y7 A" ]2 |8 L& Xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 u. \7 ?8 m f/ v1 J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: t: j |* ?4 w+ @9 f
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& f4 r3 A+ U8 t
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 l. ]! d- g. Urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. z: E- d) s6 u/ i( _1 _# |
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- D+ J5 Y ]6 d: z5 m, cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 M+ b4 x7 W' ^
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ }- N; F! L" j% d, ~7 Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 _) }0 F$ ^/ j9 ^) o0 L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 m3 c/ N v, X
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
j- w! Q5 @" B. A1 ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! s. v$ [; H/ O4 ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! { g$ S" z8 |+ d" i+ N
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# M: z7 b0 a* \# J1 p
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 I5 o1 B- Q8 s$ |3 v E
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ p$ e9 u' m1 |( y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; X( l- }- d+ b( {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* K k0 Y$ C9 B/ i! E. \7 B! Z( DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# Q* d8 p8 J% s
leg down over 2009.
3 y. @9 a) U7 s+ }. H; O8 f' F
' }4 V) J% G9 s" p2 J0 V( a" r0 t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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