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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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9 `: x9 K/ s4 c8 D: d# D: qThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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$ m; j( e! e7 ANow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.9 ^( R) F# `$ S# N$ C( c" Q$ q
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ q7 E; ]9 k- f( ?  o4 H
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( U; i! v) c7 T# M

& J; I2 T: C( v  L( N* j$ xTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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( g6 q. Y- r: |8 t/ U- d9 phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% [5 r4 R2 v8 x; U

8 I0 u. q$ Z% L2 A8 v8 g7 U7 i* R[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, X0 h4 H  u3 j: Z$ a 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。5 G3 n5 p* Q2 H1 x6 L9 A
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ' ~/ N7 u* C8 X; C! y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ x  i  z1 v/ |3 F& `很多人都回学校深造去了
# x& N! _5 b* p" y$ g嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 Y8 R0 f! A* F. w4 W, ~/ n9 Z* P% T
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 F& }; W' p6 m
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 L: X' o6 ^2 }+ q0 J1 M% ?2 w
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& r% \$ ^7 V- C% T7 z+ N  @& O2 k" m
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 \* x! G, q' e! a1 i  V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! ?1 l( R+ h% }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ c+ ]5 r9 N9 ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 C6 E+ x% G0 }. H# z/ Fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous  Q% a/ T$ _" D! z0 B7 @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& p: k# J7 _* `5 @: M$ lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; Y. s5 x  a' _
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( }' D# o( c9 O; Cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 f3 e& ?( R: r  Q7 W4 x/ b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' H0 O, G( L' e# {% m( G3 k! C! zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 T) g* Z& H. k
30,000 new households will form in the province during# {. E" g4 N% n  d$ R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  r! ^' z' g" D5 OEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' z$ t4 U- `/ c) W$ l3 r' \homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 Q0 |4 x0 v4 }: rduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 b( B2 g0 ?4 s$ {# b
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. x7 [. f9 y* p6 u4 o; x
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 x; L+ r1 s, k; L7 kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% A1 c$ s' R# g! P" Ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" w- d' R! ~; C0 iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. @7 V% c5 u) I7 _excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 v, ~1 u. R2 N2 T' d! S
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: K* [: a) h" @5 G3 I$ W9 ?  {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  E& ~: q8 ]: G
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ ?- ], S0 R. N7 L) W, {: @0 N: A
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 S3 o$ `5 P4 I- D" o& N. Y( ]unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 G( e! s6 R2 E& Lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 A! w1 r9 F- |. H8 Urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 E% ]+ j1 y" z5 x6 s; presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 G4 }7 t% A7 Y7 E  f/ e# E6 J. ]
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- M) X% B6 R; U% e! `3 L: l  }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 W' G9 m# F) f
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 {: ?0 F; h, A1 g# i/ |/ OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 Q8 z4 T/ [3 y- |1 f: _( cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 c  Z! N3 R7 `: j8 k. W* N6 |: z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan1 }* ^1 Q9 r" k+ c6 e) L, G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 E' ~: B8 B# K% l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" u/ D3 {7 H& R* u1 _9 lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even1 |3 c6 q6 o( b8 Z" z8 X  G, W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 a3 F# b! l6 X6 Qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 }+ j: ~" e$ ^; }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 c2 q* G" O! M3 \resale price in February is evidence that past prices9 X" |) N% m3 Q( a
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
4 {8 U8 _5 Z' o2 L$ X1 [* v$ Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) [1 {; j7 V& J2 j, |. \+ vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* g) L. D) t5 K; O9 w2 @* F* n0 l# O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# }* ~8 X, ]' e% p1 g8 D$ @
leg down over 2009.% N% j: E1 j) @# O0 X" w6 {" `

- K7 t9 z1 |$ ^" s6 p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; Y5 v* |) ~% J) s8 Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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% L! E) ^0 B# x$ |+ D; l3 _  m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. . q2 N( _* e. s( O# m
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子) o& z% o% ~/ I  o' J
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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