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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.) V  ]3 f. M  r, [
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 {0 W+ x7 n' Y+ y0 k* E, w9 C& M
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 K: L' `- i0 Q8 O

: N! F: r& Y0 D  @* k1 Q3 c9 w" [TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.- ?( y. @+ I4 W/ h/ N

& \1 W3 t; a; L. j4 J& t# @( h/ rMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ B! T1 n) I3 P/ Z% K

0 _* F/ K: r7 \0 {  b: t( _: @http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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6 ^% N' D& p/ G2 PTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。" v8 G7 u. N$ d0 k
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。# {; D  d' A( h% d- C! B7 }
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 f* k$ ~# S6 ~& O+ i5 m
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ E. k9 D/ d( `很多人都回学校深造去了3 g& h5 r, _) m" k) f1 L
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ x" O7 y# \8 A- N
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ c: A7 s, E8 P3 K
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 d# P' U% p2 I1 p' H- |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- j& n9 J- G# Y( T) x2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! I2 X: e* I- i4 N
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 [; x- y) _" R; S# [5 Z1 ^. C
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 W0 N3 G; {1 G1 T- J
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( t% j; C0 B$ z3 ^0 i4 W3 `0 L7 _3 Amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ ^! Z) o/ W1 e$ O; o5 L* n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 J8 L' Q; s, `) K0 d/ p
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ P& `; h  ?6 u, }2 B8 R, }to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: G0 |2 F# h, K5 W) A9 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( R% x! q# y. K5 Ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
3 N! G; y! o. ]% Ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 s3 U* @4 P' R( u8 N. p
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, B# ~* Y2 I: B7 w8 `1 `2 J4 d/ b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.' [) g  P5 F3 D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 t, l& f, W  c- y! E) h' E/ ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 O$ j* z: [( h7 v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ z' k: m5 w! h$ _$ l$ r* T
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: |2 a7 y! A, |% [, L$ d' T2 N9 A, Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) m9 e" U2 Z, {+ I! Sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ J+ Y1 P3 Y6 S3 k+ [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 l- Y1 V: ]5 h4 q0 p- l% c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 H- Q6 Y8 D6 O4 o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* }$ z& z* k9 ?1 O6 x! k4 A" v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, U5 a  D/ S1 Y  Y) {* F
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! S2 H2 B  Q# m$ I' Y/ A1 `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 @1 H" M  `5 f+ Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" P8 k* s; F  `: n5 i5 m& Y% ?7 c
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: V9 f- B4 v9 a$ f( @; Bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! W8 u, f" [" K7 c% o  Urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; j! E  m" Z; a: v4 tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 x( _+ d* n3 i$ K2 B+ B! o' y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 ?& Y) L1 u  E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; f, q& ]7 M6 p: \1 a6 frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ ?5 h) C9 k+ `) I
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  S# f# e1 y! u/ uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 O; w  F$ ~: }* e3 F# N. KAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan5 ^0 N6 d" W9 a; v+ m
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* R" C% f) j( R9 U# A, lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ O$ y6 k8 G* s' ^) ~prices substantially eroded affordability and, even- }0 |3 b. w0 I% t. h, x" X
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- @1 l* K; O3 @& E8 J  e
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 Q' G2 e$ b" r# p' o, x* AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 W& t$ ?% i3 T/ o3 p+ X- x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 y: x. y# w. p- J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- e8 k+ Y0 S. m+ A3 K1 h& e, j0 S
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ a) |  T; J% V, [9 V  n5 U7 e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& q8 ^# n/ g/ |' t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% z! |3 n1 l2 ]0 Yleg down over 2009.. M' W' l6 [$ h$ c

, S2 R# C) L3 L% v+ Q4 w( M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  t* c" ~: x2 R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 d) A! z" f. ]4 P: y& ]( T翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ n) |4 W: k6 a, H, C7 v& q1 |

7 u0 S  T8 }% ?6 ]3 h3 Whttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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