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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
z7 n' x6 Q0 m9 D/ b: @8 ^Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! s5 M/ z( C' Z6 T1 p& N" vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 i# ^3 A0 A8 A3 R* o4 ` U7 y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- ?0 \0 r) ?- @! f5 V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 h$ V ]7 S' v) ` Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 u; z. y `' i% ^7 f7 l2 D* B! F
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- x _7 X/ j8 u4 N$ D& J L) k* i; m
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. c# X% g* A7 N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous$ U' K$ G) C: u
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# o+ u6 h0 `' b& R+ F( S
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! e" W5 `* i( x9 b$ q g) t
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ t: X1 j" p) L2 y- R7 I5 [. v9 w
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! m% m4 A: Q# h& R1 |3 o1 j: Iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ m$ |' F. X$ S+ Uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ C' t& k. o% w1 h, `" d6 f
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 X( V5 k' O; o7 b9 t) M5 `2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 |$ G) l V9 |+ K! D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" o* Z: [5 I/ |0 s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 E: q4 u, }! S3 k3 y, iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ {/ j! r7 c3 Z6 [* ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 ]9 \! p! | ^. z6 Q# \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* f6 F( r7 o8 H6 ]5 B
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- r3 ?# M' \+ _. R6 e% U' hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 ?- m& N" e3 a8 V7 A7 _' v
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& ?- u% l7 u& x% K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ R/ S/ y4 F, `' h3 y0 M
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 K- R$ d3 w9 {' L, p( I' W
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# \7 L) E! X" M5 l* f I5 D
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: y+ k* h9 _/ B
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. }5 k7 v1 d X! C8 tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: P. b1 N1 a3 p1 v2 wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" n& N( A7 @. t( M1 `- D1 @
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" r7 ` F) |+ Q9 P/ x, E6 t
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 Y! o9 o9 r, X) qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 }% x M4 M2 N, X& G/ C
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! Y' g) }3 e6 A6 Z6 Trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 V3 r+ u1 \' T$ Y$ V0 X0 UThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' ~; R, K" l( ~/ Z I; Z8 P' |
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., l8 m- u q/ Z1 [* {# B# }" L
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) y, m9 C; C1 N) i# E5 A: w, y, a+ U8 Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) }5 O7 D8 i2 t3 P6 e- O( s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, ]( \6 I/ z9 K2 y8 o9 M6 @5 R7 w
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* f4 @4 W4 L: t2 E# Y) G. ?
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; v0 \( [& Y/ m0 d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 d1 y2 R6 o/ t7 B4 H# x: p$ S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 E2 o+ q8 ^; fresale price in February is evidence that past prices
$ W( ~' e9 ^, j: ]. {exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 V% X( G& U; n3 [$ ?& Chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& X' Q5 f* ?0 W5 G: g( ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- f4 E- s7 b/ g/ n7 ]( {Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 l+ e& L8 H$ |' J8 q @leg down over 2009.
& a5 E$ r" m! |( {( n$ @3 W5 a, Z. l) \4 }; Z3 d
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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