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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 l* f2 Y) c8 ?9 a4 U/ f

0 [/ x& U! T" t3 E( fThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / Q0 v! n# ^9 M$ ]
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' b& @8 j5 d2 O  Q8 P3 r- L

+ b! v$ {  V6 |9 F' RNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) c( E% u2 b0 {, }1 T

" ^, |2 z5 w. e7 i; {" J' z' Z"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , E3 [4 U  {3 l7 U
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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$ ~! C& O9 _, ]( f1 BTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,7 k: y7 @) F3 L: Z# r4 }( w
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% z  j* Z6 {- B9 Y, K/ y) K2 Y7 V' y
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" E1 E6 I# M/ H9 C# _[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
0 D" v  L/ |- B; c- f跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了3 c0 M5 w( O1 B. J4 c
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
2 u4 G4 N/ X, c. Y7 Z( O% }Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' B  }3 s. b* P3 l5 Y' Q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 P6 {  L  K* Care cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ a& j. x% }: f0 [2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 d" Q0 b( g+ e4 W$ L+ F
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; }. a$ Y) ^; j* e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* W+ V! m0 u4 M: q+ O( Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* [" Z5 p3 }% Smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 m$ M% {' E5 npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- p# f& N& j2 O- ?2 n; P& a# j% Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ G/ k4 M# ~  v. ]6 I# Cto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# }: H! X0 x! @& y& t$ ~prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 v7 d% a; q, j! o& I2 t4 Q8 }year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# L7 u7 l1 f7 i1 g  T: r5 Hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 `& G/ o+ o' U4 K0 |. Z30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 m+ E, P) h1 y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' Z0 k  m; z/ G% D5 K. n$ x" pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* q- @7 V# x$ D6 c& q( Shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 z. ~. H+ y; c6 y( fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 n9 R/ w* |% l4 lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- B  ^/ m7 |0 R0 i, F7 thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" s# l4 T$ f0 l4 j* Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 j# v5 C) s% v% E$ O. Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) p& p. E% M, |3 ~/ z6 ~! ~; qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# r0 u2 O' g/ X$ s: W% I1 g$ k
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 i5 r% _7 Z* x" ?( r2 a
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 W) Q. Q* U, i4 K1 P1 c2 jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  n. O5 ^( |- x+ I& x/ }2 rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 u1 j. }6 _4 p! U& Etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 P2 `, P  E" |' R5 v. t/ Q& B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: e2 x# `5 W/ N# f! N" Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 }( g5 r% P4 N- q& ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the  ?5 Z% Y! K% k: _$ f, X1 B
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- U7 B8 u2 {: L5 C2 N5 Wmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 G  E5 H  l1 L' W  }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ Y1 X' i, L% Z- [, \7 x$ ^: r& d
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 ^  k& C6 H; O7 WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# h' B* P1 W0 |# B) S" }
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.  [/ W) i: ^! H" }
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 S# ]( X( b4 r! L& ^housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ b! H1 [# x4 y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 z) L1 m6 J% {0 eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 |" Z4 O& ^/ [% qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 \. k; x. r% C- t1 W: oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. U# h. C4 [  f/ e7 G
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! d% `( b2 C) w0 X  j8 X
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  C+ [% ~! z- o$ H! C2 Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 a- U6 |5 Z3 Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 w+ O7 }. s+ x+ t" f# Z& M6 U- d! R9 pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 f. s6 o! g! A4 {: v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 a$ A1 q, E5 l: Qleg down over 2009.* a* V2 _" e4 i. E
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% X0 N7 O$ G6 d& |, U' CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 5 v& k' z1 ]5 J4 r. P" a+ Y3 j
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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: k3 h  ~8 s' r4 _( |- u# _3 jhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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- }0 y! ^' X, F* O0 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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