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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ R; X9 v5 @4 k: _# G! W9 bWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 \- Q7 u" ~. S! xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. d! w7 a: u: o5 \3 w& Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ U" Z! ?3 I; n$ g, [5 F8 k, Z: e2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' L' S/ p2 n3 h s. t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ e7 E. X6 d, k+ {* V- c) Z$ T6 h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- X) ]" Q4 t- n. z. m% wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 b, s8 l5 n* [' \" C( n# Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' ]& |9 G# v. `: y* v. _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& k' Y/ p/ A# F' V3 D, e. X4 iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* h( Y! ^# j2 `! ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) V! n; d. ~6 y" o- b d* F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( a9 m0 Q3 q2 T1 J, d: Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 E+ j0 ]! ^' Fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 ~8 b0 z. ~/ ^, o O30,000 new households will form in the province during
! D- H0 g5 m1 o0 F) L4 ^2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ V% O, Y* h! t/ K4 }0 s& z
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
& Y( a/ C1 ^- J% H0 c$ p x6 j$ F3 Rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ p5 O) h6 e3 B; Q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 K) d+ `- N) L! b4 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ |4 D0 F# |( u$ O7 [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 n' Q4 `2 s( s' m1 D7 ]; Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 l& ^$ L) q6 Q7 n6 U% j/ Y$ }' E) Lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ Q6 F- _) s7 O, Q$ \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 }0 c) j1 r7 ~
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# @& ]8 k7 P" }9 w1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( Y8 [5 f) F; Z; m/ T* A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
Y4 [9 C1 v- `# l3 C0 T/ ~buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# M5 T4 R! q0 V; Mtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! k9 Y, K# e3 X' Q/ ]unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- n( k- s* b% Z G9 `# U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 R1 `6 |- P1 l+ {* e- F4 j" U
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ i% g) x- X# Z2 n+ B/ p$ |6 ~% V- Iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' D9 c+ A V2 y( `* S! M3 R9 f8 C# smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& H5 k2 l% e$ c4 H
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 p$ ]. U j7 Z9 ^rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. X7 [% u: t( P7 ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
t" N6 x ]8 V( j3 Z1 cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 j8 L, i$ b z* oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 w B. p. r! E8 s6 E) x8 chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 c2 r6 y' K% z i! v: Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ A4 T, [9 w6 u# ~" s- `9 M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 ^1 b4 \1 z% E. E4 ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 G# m- U3 d: N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' ]! Z# P* @4 A2 u, J/ X! @
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" K3 j8 f6 A% ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. U" F/ T6 G6 T4 t. r( Rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# Y) K3 _% G8 b, Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ K1 b L6 {+ t9 S8 `
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( _% C6 G6 }4 [% z# BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& L9 t5 }+ S9 W- oleg down over 2009.
# c4 j# K6 {, J9 ]; Z* X; V1 Q; x% a9 ]1 |6 ]6 {. f
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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