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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.; B5 p5 i/ f) j1 t
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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" X4 w# p* k2 g( |, E, FThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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0 C) X$ J. \2 `' ?* j. z. g"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " Z, n# n7 {( z- t3 {: \  x" \
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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- e% w& m# f* M8 K$ kTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. + z- @. ?( d2 e% w+ w

" n/ @! g- H4 l0 S) dTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- b1 B3 ~1 p: W  Z, aMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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' O/ {+ G( R- \' P- G' L) s) R  Z: Ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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" _* ]" V7 U" V; MTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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+ Y5 ~% [& x1 s' p$ S/ K[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% d  O0 K5 B9 H* |; v1 q& V; l0 | 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( B4 h; u' n) \+ W0 b: J
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
0 F" D# K: k- e/ w# v7 L跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了! c& J+ T* r) p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
0 m, T! l) G$ y7 zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 j' c8 q) ~8 Y) O* j2 c! ?# U
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& T1 H) {  Y7 v8 q( i5 H4 ~, z3 h) P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
! `* O: }! ?8 W% c! C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" W/ E; a5 `$ K, F1 O( R4 fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided5 C: T5 a  w' n( W
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) w5 F9 G. e. |the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 P* |6 v2 O- H1 ~
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous, A: l4 j9 g4 [9 {
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 `6 R8 G2 N4 i7 [" ?; Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- z  s, K+ N1 v* L0 [- yto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: w" o6 _, X% }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this9 O6 j' J7 b1 [) E4 {! D5 {9 Q# G
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; @0 j6 D  B* Y- ]1 [  `# p! p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. `( t( x2 H8 Y
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 |6 Q) E: n- Y) }- x
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! k$ v( K0 h& ]
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ T: b4 t7 S' Z. q5 E
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% j' v1 f  n# _  Q' O* [0 }0 f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" ~) D4 y' m% u) Dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 w/ n3 \+ [8 S- ?0 ?" Q# shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! u4 w0 v6 A6 c
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, ^% e7 p% e: W1 l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 ~, A; V% y, e% r# s2 b: d+ Fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' f3 _& H9 G) j& i  ]. X0 D8 |1 xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ I& V" M, N& e1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 U) z8 `( X$ b- t' W" f" W4 v0 R
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 `5 B% U) J3 \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% b# j0 ]2 B& J9 }- @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) ]+ |3 M' C! \3 eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 ]2 ?5 L  Z7 a+ ~4 m8 V( j8 f. Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: q. X% M. @9 W1 w5 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- T% }" c% m* E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& l, B( z4 E! n' O( b
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ g- |: Y7 R: o! P1 G  p- e
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ B$ [: F2 u. K$ {7 }
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
) i% \# M  }9 Z$ {/ L, z( zThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  [# v" |& T) E1 e- N" Q1 U- Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
  @; }# i3 E& m0 F% [3 sAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( |& U9 s6 h, T. }: @& Ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, l" [) M! {% R8 Y  `* R; Y/ x+ Crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 t& M' f$ {4 B/ M" I5 Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 {% a# E2 ], e) p& Y( mthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ P2 C6 \3 g) t  I
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% S* ^/ E3 K* o' H1 x* i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! G1 b5 g7 k  g0 {9 mresale price in February is evidence that past prices
! V& r/ T, Q- }' V; g! aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% t3 R1 ?5 O: A! N: B( d6 vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ L0 Z+ e( h- i/ n  F7 k/ V/ }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 u" h0 V, [# ?' K/ R+ nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 A+ x4 F( s' Dleg down over 2009.
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' b) Z. Q$ w5 j; a* `* M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ n. A$ z3 b+ |9 UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. : d4 E( l9 n5 i* X
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments+ D! w  c( q! r6 B

0 ^  P% a; O; y2 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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