 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ _4 S6 D8 I& o' gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 l% }8 I' t. y: M% P) k+ lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 f2 O! F; I# |+ m0 `4 f( ]5 Uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# z9 V, h! z+ ~* U
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 O* ]7 u5 U% K1 b5 K, B/ G( l# Tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( x7 [: D9 I/ D& R; {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: v5 m; {0 h! d: K- R# l" Y1 o
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) `: v! Q+ K- H, Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 V" i! C4 r$ N0 v& _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 i- c: G4 s, R8 o( W- Eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 s7 z- O9 l; L6 B4 N
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 [6 `+ Z2 _. Q+ N# D7 d! s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: ]7 E& G: d/ I- b _2 e# t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" O, g% u9 z% f' G- I: U/ shomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 S( o9 F# n+ B7 P$ c30,000 new households will form in the province during8 B) Z8 n8 h) t8 g' Y6 t. |7 o6 S
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ \6 ^4 u- ^6 q u0 c9 y% G# g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* X" m- B0 L2 _9 v
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; l: o# G' K" D; U4 c- z+ z6 R% \* W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 c; o$ I: W( n! i% O+ k" Dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% ?. W* V0 V" ? B& p. r* a2 Q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) }0 r2 U' P: Q/ x6 @5 Xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, L" j* e+ N2 s1 }: ]" r
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ t; Q6 k* @7 w0 i1 _! fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; @7 J7 _8 O$ G- V L7 E
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; V! j3 m- F/ Z) o6 ], u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# A+ j4 ^; @" ^0 U5 Z( k
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 L! B6 w1 B3 X' r; ~9 C9 Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 ]8 h% m6 F: |" J Q3 N+ w% ]" I
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" ^1 J8 a* ~! n8 w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% z% {' A' c7 w X# ~unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 D Q/ A2 @0 Q: b/ a0 g S7 a( ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% W( \. F6 t2 L0 h5 s. Z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 _8 D- p/ q, a g2 ^; zmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ M. E; F2 I1 S! U' P" {0 } m1 \5 Kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% [8 t; e8 }2 zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ G5 M8 J; f5 R/ }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 m) ]! Y0 h" Q# ]2 G M# k" @% r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 ]( ^9 n7 @ }7 W4 h2 o4 B
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 k" Z1 l% v! r# M. qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 g% \- y4 u9 \* M f8 W! u1 Hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. r3 @/ ]* K$ O4 a( [
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) I( Z) Y/ n4 M
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# z `) _9 x# y9 f* s: ?- kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., t! |- @+ _0 d* k& O
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% p/ T7 Q1 c9 |" y qresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% \( W% v9 P/ }" r* \2 jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ Q' r- E# A) c
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; I( A6 @; D& d& a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ p( P: |* s# W' z* GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 n% x. V, z, Uleg down over 2009.
& m4 l* j9 v3 d# W# O, F$ ~# L5 Q* N3 r7 [5 x, _! k' \6 j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|