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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
# T$ y( v2 u, E8 d& t0 V0 e* {2 u- M' o  f5 o! @
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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. e: [; B& C0 S7 ]The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % ^* W$ T* r1 \3 s: D

4 m) M$ J" }8 J) i2 W( K) |Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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1 O5 q& m# \2 STD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* n: m$ ^  Y, h2 b
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." N; S5 G' M7 R3 V/ E, Z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 o& _1 H* Y( K1 P$ R

3 N- P" T' g- m1 N& e5 bhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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% m7 ^' E( {+ w+ tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,# L# m! V9 D- A, \7 u4 Z& u
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
' @# J3 z1 L4 H. x  m" r 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. m- l5 R) Y5 E7 B+ N

  L& X7 j- B" k[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
+ B: C+ a: N0 Q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 @  U! o0 |* Z1 ^1 O. A很多人都回学校深造去了
3 B0 ?5 L# b7 v嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta" t0 q; W$ C" d( F1 E; Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 h1 G0 u) `; z" ?1 N' k  \boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 K/ x# z  l% w* {
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ Y8 \' Z0 X4 a% ^" S: ~$ V+ J2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ p1 m; |) p9 ^0 fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 S( q! ~" T7 ]: Xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
, B7 i/ J- y' T* R# sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 m5 A4 ?; u$ h, O
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 k' ?- b2 T, M7 e. n. w6 q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) M, h+ d& G7 B2 L+ s- Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 b7 y( [( N; E7 I, t$ T6 x' K0 K
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 h+ U( n9 N$ c" {) f9 C: rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; a5 @  b: W; a7 p) d0 j! O  B
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. n2 \, ], n/ Y- D4 r- w* X; B4 D6 h
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 Z1 L, x+ Q# G, c- q6 d
30,000 new households will form in the province during. u8 y0 s# r: v& l- m
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 H- S0 e5 [6 n  i" U, n. oEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- J* S7 F8 s- ?& a# O8 Ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* d/ a. B; Q: S4 }+ E9 k
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ ]' B3 L5 _% khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- d" G5 g7 |0 Y5 p0 rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) x* t6 X' M& ~% @9 {' Y# x( W+ _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* j# J1 c2 L: N5 q4 n7 {/ Bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 Z  p, U6 z' b' r7 p' t9 Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# a$ ~" _, \" ^* x3 |excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. V* @- m7 q( @. d1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 H( W2 }4 l/ j( t6 y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 A3 S6 I3 @8 J' R+ k
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, v2 ?7 x9 v. R6 M% ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& ], c% b* T' b) R, eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. [( [) @# Q! @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 N, b1 Q/ L8 U" O
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: I0 Y1 K9 d" s' n$ d( t% ^( lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 I+ }; m5 O( P& c. n7 V" o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ l: A3 s0 @; u$ q2 `4 \+ dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 {1 ^4 D9 x! T  o2 [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
  W! W# g' ^2 K  C( vThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; w8 ~- N1 c6 s3 e* l5 @7 b7 Y6 Aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! v5 o9 F5 ^" C3 P: WAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ e% o  \! e  a+ Xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 R" K; E, U3 V3 H$ J: P7 `9 E
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) u& t; c  z9 T3 a1 k8 v# f; p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ \  v* Z$ E) Tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 [* z( q: u3 ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) g! H  m! m+ X/ z. Y- r9 z  S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
  J* N4 g0 Y4 `& [$ {resale price in February is evidence that past prices* u$ F1 c2 @1 I; U% V) Y+ U9 k
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! W5 Y6 J& O5 F- P+ y2 }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 I9 j7 {9 N: O9 m  X3 pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 ^% c) Y2 Y8 e0 KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# A8 ?. ]* q/ s( y: W8 L
leg down over 2009.+ O" a4 s; t2 a3 `8 P

# n9 `, z$ F' [% C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 V; ]+ r' d5 d- i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 |( @4 A% |" |5 I* x
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" H# k  I! Z9 b% [: T5 Z$ b

( ^7 Y( U6 h( m+ r& @http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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. j9 r( G% K. Y7 ?- h8 S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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