埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2381|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 j$ U. o' p: D8 k" C

) C- O4 C. s9 r7 nTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
2 @% q& [4 y' S8 o# E$ d" |
0 Y9 U: O$ F( a+ K, l' BThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ! i: R4 L6 @' b" H

8 z0 n* O8 S1 }) `  g"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' L3 u: E% y8 B2 h7 I6 h4 w" U- r. ]
' P* F9 E9 h1 c! Q$ {3 ?0 ]
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.( `, Q  i$ z4 _* \/ u) R

, W; M1 Z" J! p# F9 o8 NTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.% ]- b$ a2 r9 B$ P, n+ C

8 g/ O$ P. J3 b"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
' a, S: U+ \* `  v4 B1 a" l# w8 l% n0 {, `
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
( w2 G4 D: _2 a5 Z: b* P8 R; t
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
' G' G; h2 P% V  e: d% k& ~) W
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
9 Z% P* }8 `$ h

% L9 r6 C$ a, N* Q, Q$ J* bTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. y- y/ h, L, L, D( N* w' h+ v

( S. i4 h$ E) ^3 L; J0 O+ T8 d[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。4 d7 n: x: V+ u) c
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
  \& u! b$ m! {* G' ~0 H4 l8 K- U7 }' Z% n0 H" k
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 X( H' f+ V0 U0 {4 N
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
! ^0 a$ G& R; ]) a7 d9 ?. v( o
很多人都回学校深造去了5 p! F: \' j+ h& ?+ Y
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta! H0 o( `( K5 a6 Y) \, L9 s, `8 K2 h
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 b% {) q5 P$ n+ @4 J: X$ @* M  sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' L: N/ G, e7 d3 T
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to  U3 u1 X" t: O8 H" g& M' a6 E
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& u. ?* b! s! \  Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ i* T$ N7 u# \% B3 h* sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 y3 x4 {; W' S6 {9 @+ P" Sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! p7 c4 J6 t6 L6 ~! Z+ N, Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous# ]3 P  b$ k# s) p& |
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 h0 M( U) B* m" w8 _. Y3 Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! B$ Z3 [# M3 o, J4 Y& K
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 S8 r  F; u( Q! Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" o5 @( w5 Q* X9 L; O4 q1 Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" Y2 J1 m9 L0 O0 }- e" B$ P# Y. T* Thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 x7 g+ j8 z* T1 C& u
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& ~7 P& [( m' u' C* E+ e* O/ N2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) }) q& Z/ w. s& Z
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( P2 z2 b, ?8 Z  j. ?2 x) H2 C) Q3 Rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  u1 y, L, |, q9 y. q0 u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 N0 X6 m/ \% r: q2 e" lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 E9 o" H, e, b& x) }5 L. f. x
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) A7 f+ U4 ]1 C& p- o6 ]during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, `- o% R0 C4 ?( f- isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 }( k% o6 z- O2 e; O1 X" S2 Y( d2 aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# I: M" y& u& L- {# R7 C. L9 Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ B" ~  g; ]* \8 y) R1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ R, M, ^+ D5 q9 x. r
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( ]4 d4 A0 b9 g- p  abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" a" `( a. ~# e5 w5 Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 i) h: R7 f3 E, H; o- ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) }5 D% l4 q' d% J# `unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( t  w1 P  a% Q  u; _' M4 {7 C: m. f
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" {: G' ]  b, @# H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. f0 ~7 m- K) D0 o2 ~. ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- ^+ @' e2 n9 f8 ?0 q+ D
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; H3 u. b3 S3 ?. Erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ P$ T6 o- s2 ?1 X, F8 h
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% @0 P, U7 h1 ~% d  uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 M. U8 F; b0 w5 A, b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 g3 X+ ~0 ]7 B/ qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( T" r0 h4 x( S* X, A- T4 m3 i. ?0 U
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 e; o# H  h" W- fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( u! l6 c1 e0 [0 W" B
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 l, v3 ]1 e9 p
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.  z+ E/ x- K  f/ g0 [+ q- y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- ]/ Y. d$ z4 }  X1 G' C' j# Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 x5 s0 }# W6 g0 i8 D& texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! }# N: s4 w9 H8 y& h# B3 @homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! c; r' {; v9 d' @9 s( c2 g
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 K+ @* O, l$ w& V3 w7 q7 z- aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  T6 U3 ]* U) ~2 C8 V3 n1 A/ z
leg down over 2009.
/ i- Q  }3 z; \3 }2 m# M3 n6 J  H9 r! K4 |8 m0 d
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 I6 J2 \9 p! k! N2 \- z' KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

: j) o7 m0 e( u" i$ R5 v# q4 a
5 p. S5 O/ Y% y: `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 O/ y4 m; k. N+ y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
, ~/ M  Z4 c3 ]# d4 ^
8 J" r. N' {- Ohttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
# h8 [  z% Y1 K. I$ D, e6 f, x0 T. R, w: s7 F$ j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-15 12:11 , Processed in 0.250835 second(s), 19 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表