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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.  `; Y1 ~- o# k$ A3 P" J5 w

1 ?6 \2 r- N" x8 P9 b- O3 pTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 Q1 h+ Q4 q3 G  F

3 Q; ?; s2 ^& h! _/ FThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
9 I: t7 Z% S7 D, k. }" a  y& s$ R, B6 _) `- f* N- c# n
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. . [, {( v- i3 p; P9 {+ H- T" `* r
+ r6 x3 _' I3 [
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.3 t: I# [) }8 E$ B6 ?8 v  F; i

( D0 W: A# B! W5 {9 QMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
" @6 w* m- ?  b- R9 w; |' H2 [; S# \  N! V& @% A1 K: ~
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; ~3 E" w/ I) z& l0 F, V
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- e  B" k, h- M" P, y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . P3 P. h$ Z$ X. V
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

  N" ~0 `8 R; d1 D% v很多人都回学校深造去了7 a# @" n  n+ s6 P; `0 [
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta, U3 t7 g( }" ?. M! H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 [, a+ I1 e8 u' ?8 Q' aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
* @+ U! L' l5 d7 }$ Uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" n: ?' w7 Z& s# H; B
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 h! L+ O7 T  ~: d
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 D6 e- t1 J2 L) ]+ q: }  o- [
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 C$ ~  k, d6 Q3 C; ~. ?% a3 o4 e
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% ?$ D6 e' y5 d) k4 Xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: ~1 y# s5 L4 [; r4 k8 E  kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 r1 c8 o% W1 b5 k2 i1 S4 Lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 w! J& Y, N4 R$ ?6 w9 @to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year  `. Y$ R) }- X# |2 M9 n, P& k+ R) T& C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ v( A4 _  s' b8 g9 zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& I5 J1 `- b7 ~" L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ `5 ~8 z4 M9 l7 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during) |3 v$ W* ^2 v, }$ k
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.  u6 _( v/ t( x7 f  r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: z2 g4 F& F1 k+ F6 N! M
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 @- H1 H" F2 l
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  A6 U8 a6 b; L( W: \  {
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ z+ ?# E! L! R2 n# a; Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 S6 E/ d* t% T# M+ E3 E
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; M$ \& i' ]7 n" M7 S% X& tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: }& @# ^$ @9 O' N2 k6 ^clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ n5 P: _- N% ~- [3 s! \: Fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* c- ^+ ?) \& L9 z7 N/ d. B* x7 `) {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# K; |  W- {% o# M! j0 M8 L' {
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, l1 k- U; b( d* S9 [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( B  T; b' ]( e& \( Y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! M4 S# q, w5 J/ o1 }  q5 P& B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 U# }" |5 a. ^# H6 G( O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ K. y' E% Z' ]" t' K+ H8 \! @: w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. a: `, X) g0 W9 bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ g' l- D( U. q& I/ ~
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 C$ h& m5 p5 I( G- }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, W5 @" d" L, n- z4 [* a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 c$ _  q. B) V9 |/ r1 ^- c
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 ?8 p' V; B( b$ @; ^0 O& u
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, |1 }% M9 e" s0 m* X9 ]5 pAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 D5 \0 l2 \- Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 _' |* H4 o: D! ]  _6 n
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 y0 |$ D" T/ rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; M8 }" ~' b1 h* O4 y/ w7 F3 o5 ?though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ {& Y! x  ?& `" E* n. ?% ~  _
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 Z+ _0 O: m: E% D; r$ Y- {1 xThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' ?5 q+ z* C7 y3 |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& z, ]1 n2 a9 e/ j5 t( {) Q* v' \exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( s; a/ ]7 J/ t$ M! S! \; ?" k+ F# h' yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. i# B1 A/ Y2 X5 b, U1 ]3 Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 Z2 M9 x: t1 r" f( t0 L8 M
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ l. C) _% e, Pleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* |: ?0 D2 M- c7 f* _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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. L! X8 e; J% q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' r5 M( x& w1 f5 s1 q7 x3 T) `" L
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ d0 w5 B  @7 X4 H
+ s* C: ]/ k. l+ m, H' U
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: b1 ~' f+ {2 k' v
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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