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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" `3 |4 K1 O& `2 @. F& ]1 j" }4 ~% i: _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 a5 J/ b6 G; ^3 ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 d! J: H; C, ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% K9 e& B2 ]0 X) p% k' Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" i2 o# e T, P
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 L: T' J0 M2 _! ~4 S
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& k' Q# W7 n9 o; \ Mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; y& W) X: [& @% |" ?9 Tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous5 V1 r0 a$ r1 i3 B( j% |
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, Y' d4 i" A. t9 s- g* B" Q& ]
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ U$ a* e/ ^% z \; }0 f( F8 v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ T8 ~/ f4 L" ?8 ?% F' P& K6 k
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* P, _+ G( x( K; _. ^year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 O% g ?8 t- }1 S d
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 ^+ `; x3 L) J( N# Y: p
30,000 new households will form in the province during" B. E! K; l7 L* R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 E% I; g, a% z# @4 x; zEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 K' g7 I' W, Q" D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; g$ v! `( [- ~ }" c
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ { W3 ~, f: P/ A/ @: l8 q! k o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" |" {! d' {5 [4 y! Zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" p) E% A g" {$ i/ [( g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ c* j- ~ Z7 a/ X+ _1 }; p! D- d
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ Z/ L9 a% v5 X* ]) w6 j# Z( N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 R0 _) V7 x. ^6 C, h% Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& `- Z! J. G9 c2 r! h T
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' V6 D. ]3 `& ]1 A5 G$ O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 c. w: ~# i+ M' D/ Bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 H$ q! a! w5 y1 \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( d, W% z; N3 O5 h3 A: D+ aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# @) I* G% o) ^8 V, gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" x2 W9 v5 S1 S, a9 k
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ u& x! K2 M; I$ iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 g! Y2 n, z. T% z8 C7 W
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- x: q" r* L6 U1 G# t" mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 B' n) h1 B+ I$ v6 H) ]rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( h% L1 o- m, k/ i
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 u, q* M( s; C+ K$ `( C* ^: A6 aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; M1 U& p( x1 y8 e" \' IAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# ?+ ]! t1 f6 x6 i: C3 n$ {, `/ {
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 F' a, f+ {6 J; P6 v/ N& @
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 D8 r3 F! ~5 }: _4 r* t
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 _' ?- w: K( u' g/ x* o; gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# d; i1 v; j N% j) _8 A8 ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 H$ r( |( L+ d4 p! b8 S% BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; m1 ~+ \1 m$ E' B0 M! I7 u% O- G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices- w% r8 v; T( d' s% L
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" E2 v8 o. E: q: ?$ W( e. |6 [& v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) G, T' J* Y7 ?) D: l' u
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' s9 d& N# r# w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 B |* t$ ?5 h, gleg down over 2009.
+ t8 W7 L0 `* H* Z* i$ A/ ~: {7 e9 z& g4 ^
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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