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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
1 e' P7 N3 X: y0 r4 g BWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 }- I# v1 T! l$ }$ L! j# zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
`& ~6 h+ k* R6 c+ [7 Xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: }0 T5 m+ I+ F: A6 J
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; u# q* D3 l. o. V: ^ q( Yformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# g, [! x5 g3 W4 }1 ^$ Y) {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ Y, G4 b" L8 j& w5 _6 m
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 n R7 U% @$ I+ _
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ N, \9 ?1 \) N |; Q9 n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" a7 O' n. @2 F" q; L9 C; Y; Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 @; K: X# e: | a- o' L) N4 x$ H p; U0 C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 A( T8 ]5 V1 w6 wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ O& N4 v$ M7 E M4 l( |. W! o8 Q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. ~ T0 R' P/ k/ q- Uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 l4 I# M0 {" v% C30,000 new households will form in the province during. d" E& }$ g$ c5 L1 V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* G0 E# [0 S0 \Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s. w- J4 O/ L7 F S
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; M, V M( Z& Y* B2 l. sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% H" F0 a+ a) b6 d3 y" Ahas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( L( h i( X# J }' \, W. qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; k/ ~5 E1 q5 S$ J4 O" gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- {: z0 P( Z% D- E( J5 A. e$ W
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; X- D% O0 V3 ^% D9 G
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* d& {! W, _% ^ V! m t0 v: w
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& s9 ]" h) U1 c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' G k+ U R2 ]
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( Z+ s' K# d5 d0 [: O" T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, {( j0 X) K; h3 Q i& H4 p( ]" m( \
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- _2 g7 n+ O! t( Munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& b( b7 T% ~9 [! runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 h. S/ M- m" r$ qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the* X* H$ ?* O% a! H9 V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 l5 e, H+ x. J/ p8 |% V$ R0 p; l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* t" M( c; N+ J# g" T& |of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, w* ^7 H5 C" {, F
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 A3 z7 }+ J* i; U& x' d
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ u+ c4 i+ M+ H, S
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" `# h9 h' R/ \6 Q x* M% g4 D7 oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan* e- R2 S; l5 J3 D5 ]+ j
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: J0 l8 {. ^% Z$ c+ p' T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 N2 S. t: r! b& Z5 @4 s& f4 t0 Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; W9 B* ~0 B. N: u1 `7 ]; H$ othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 I9 N; Q* i3 x5 x/ @+ \+ T- oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& Y+ Z% g- b& @# b1 k$ L" X% G9 s
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% Y) C+ m+ k3 U3 {resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 t( n# M6 q, N/ r2 W( j+ v+ A3 V+ I4 jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* R& i2 P' y9 Q1 p2 P
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ S7 [+ |# ~8 ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* \/ c! f: l: z: x3 C
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 v' _# }1 o2 R' |leg down over 2009.
2 \; A* r# I k/ _) A
1 G# v" O/ k6 I6 k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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