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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( Y6 w8 B3 s8 d/ |9 t! c
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ( R  s) K9 ^' F3 m" A" o/ }3 P0 g

! j  C! P: W1 ?% t  @, I- y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 F3 S9 m9 H" g: ~4 v: h  @9 Z/ J
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; e; ^- j# R) d* Q& U

7 |5 H+ ~, }% ], X9 y! U8 nTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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: N+ a! _3 L6 u8 S& D* }) L( K. [% fMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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; [# W; F% V, Ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; H0 [5 {8 C4 ?- F% A- I) k
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
0 K" `0 a' {* [; E' @, ]: _$ n跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

4 T, \- N2 k5 O+ _5 ~很多人都回学校深造去了  ?6 r/ _' X# \: K
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 M5 M  b9 j& j+ t8 oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 S8 {) ?8 Y! x7 P5 Sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 S8 a9 R: W1 `6 B% s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 U/ `% ~- c- X- d7 J3 K
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. O2 _/ M) O. f% B) C2 C9 H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 [9 [1 b; _- |1 f* w1 P+ r
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! `) H: }: Z( b: E7 ]4 vthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 [& y' G/ Q0 _. c. T- G- Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous) `4 p! m4 z& X* j. a% G/ `* v  R
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( R% ]) G( _5 ]% w; O) n' J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
  {3 {7 q: |8 N9 O$ g2 o$ W2 \  D* bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* B. q5 j# U6 I! z% K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, l. K; i# {$ H6 tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,  U7 b/ P7 A9 r; e+ ]7 t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ K$ v, E/ H, K# `9 U% M: ^4 O30,000 new households will form in the province during
) ?4 i9 i! Z+ ?2 M1 o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. L" A4 {3 H/ v0 ~/ Q0 t4 vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 S2 a5 X" i) w( I- |homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, O+ L; [/ P" A& Q0 {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% K, }: ^2 S9 n1 ~7 C9 w: Q" P
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" @1 c% x5 \+ R9 y! d5 ~households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ V" d! H, C! d7 G2 m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. U& M  Y# m/ V2 u; psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% F1 V) E) A# r& k6 k  p8 @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ j2 c( p8 h$ gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- X; D5 ^! y) i  U' F- w, a1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* H3 K9 h2 N! i( Z2 w1 P0 T( H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
2 p! f; s+ T; n# @5 Qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  ?( l; T. w8 t0 n6 H& q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 ?7 V" D% o: N+ O8 W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
  [2 b8 K- S. Junsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% \) Q. R4 I0 h5 ^! D
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
3 c3 q; ^5 O, h4 p4 Vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 j& F# F' U+ S1 k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 _/ I2 d. t9 u* V4 A! sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 f  A$ N- R4 Q: M, X. F* wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 G$ x4 p7 X: q0 e+ |3 B# vThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 Z" m. A. s8 B3 s) H
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 n, l% b5 i) s- E% i: w4 |) O
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 K0 h$ b% P0 }- ^# y6 {- p; ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: p& N/ I7 Q0 d! Y7 W+ b
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) |" x6 y) v) s% Q. H' C; vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 N. f( I, Z0 R0 z3 I4 }% ^
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 l  _3 i  J; Z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; X. ?0 r) ]3 ^/ X$ f! X% z; bThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. h# e( X. Z3 uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
; Z' t* |' E* L- q# Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ l$ R/ K. s* Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ m! U. ]$ N+ A& r+ {deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 i; o6 S* p$ wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ w* S4 C9 G1 q+ K% I( X% i3 d8 ?& a8 Nleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ A7 \; z/ R3 V& w  N$ \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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! ], S  A, l4 t( w1 i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
; E; R4 Y! `* u, m4 ^翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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" H( w0 I+ C7 Q% k# Uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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% m2 z; F% H- z: G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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