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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ o* D9 h- n) q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 ~* @+ V7 E2 J' U, N2 x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 e9 G0 {0 u6 t8 oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: _% F& t# k# a/ K. u2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 H( a ?' o8 Z: u+ K' S p8 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% q, r) O. @( Rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" l/ g$ ?& x/ `3 F0 P6 M8 }) gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 F% e) H8 \, P7 X
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ {! U- [7 ]% v e4 G# y
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. _/ \ [! t: Z/ G9 J; U
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! E0 H! Y! J, }2 Oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 p: _: B( @& b4 \prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 e. I5 @+ T" H2 T! \) R9 Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 g3 m& d2 v/ M/ \; U3 Z& q& |homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 F1 I) {$ v( A' \0 y8 E0 x" d: Q30,000 new households will form in the province during
" h& H; I8 r d; B/ M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( t+ k% p( W: |7 V) w7 WEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' z4 e" M) l0 ~( N( V0 `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 G7 t; g. V. h! [- D# q& b z: T
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; o8 U1 a% J( J5 ]0 G1 n4 {) Bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, N% j5 q+ P9 ^% N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! q# t( C( o2 Yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' ^5 i% y% l0 }) r6 Z3 vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 e$ t0 U' u D5 ~5 I8 p' Rclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. |% B2 ^6 x0 q$ I# Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. ?! v# E6 C7 l" f; s- |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 z: U9 ?* E; g$ [
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 F- r' [; D/ T% \7 O
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, }9 W8 K2 M7 T& Z* s2 _
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, F$ W; R5 b! O! W! R0 w6 Z: P& Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' w/ j3 X$ n3 |, i# v$ j
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% w" t# m; }: Z% U" crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# P4 x- P8 i. f6 h
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 ?2 m# e& B$ bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; e' K: ?" b; |' l- X, h% K2 \* Aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 u# e0 j9 T S/ V7 V6 Q ?
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 p% E, x5 u# h2 lThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* E3 u- v* c; u+ d" T8 nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ a6 v8 U$ f# Q- _1 h% p
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 y: g1 j! s1 {% S+ t( ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 \( `3 }8 l) }3 j [& F& u9 u
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ F9 r- z6 G5 j! h
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' a* {2 P! j* v6 ~( V8 d
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 f+ Y+ A0 o% T
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ s. Q' X& U4 M2 B. G3 p" Q# FThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: b$ h4 Y8 `" |4 y3 H4 e% T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* I d. X1 P# X/ L8 u+ }9 ?- ~) o
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
]0 L4 b. E: I6 S5 J' n% E0 m9 C" Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" {( A1 ]6 J0 J$ M8 _/ A) s) {1 i
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 `: i2 z/ P; v- o2 A: U+ P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 C6 m! v" P4 z9 `9 J& {7 `, oleg down over 2009.
9 g! C5 V5 j. v! m2 V) t- x; J* ]" C' L# V( }+ m
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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