埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2533|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
: |7 S( o! S, _. n# }
- C# X- N1 H$ g% d7 }& p$ c2 RTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
- g& \4 x9 Q9 d4 e
0 N9 x5 D' ]5 P$ _/ |The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / j- U9 K, b, Y+ s9 S
  A2 _8 K! {/ p( r
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
1 c2 C7 n  q3 M. g. z" g3 B* u
+ a7 W9 e, z3 B6 FNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
+ p! w. D  B% O& m4 Z4 u* }) e
  {' U! V. a7 E+ @* F8 f6 B( @7 l% ITD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* p1 p1 W$ ]& Q$ k* O

/ ^, r, v5 q$ Z  Z' P"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
1 P! O0 |! r3 g3 m6 z) `. v6 R" _0 ~4 a  c7 H
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., U2 C& ^" ^' ]5 j- e* D

+ X: c* A; w6 T* c, E0 VMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ! P  t; g2 G& {8 b8 P
& a: A( ~0 q) P* g
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

5 G4 g+ I3 t3 |# f7 @4 M  j) Z4 r. d6 f5 N/ p, x/ b% z
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: L) z4 m" T- s) J
. L/ f" x' m7 v0 P+ S0 x
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" h9 x, b+ V% s# K- B 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。" d6 X5 Z4 U0 f6 f  D6 M
6 }1 y# U: A, R+ G4 y% ?
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  K+ R! j: F0 d) d: E- m跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
  i' x4 m( `8 \$ j, w
很多人都回学校深造去了
3 u2 N: Z, D) R嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" W5 M5 {  x: k+ N  J2 eWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: A% [) L1 K' r; v" `boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* Q( ]- Y5 j& C0 |
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 m8 A$ C2 l0 ~
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( q9 ^2 u0 @* s0 `4 j8 d2 qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: F' K& t) R* ?% @& Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 x# v. [& V5 O' u" v' ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- `: N$ M9 `9 M  s3 b1 ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ p1 s7 d! ]7 a! W6 A- A# C/ b
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ k1 g: ^: E3 [! \precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. |$ H% z0 q$ f) u+ G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 a& Q9 I0 c0 f! c" Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! f7 ~" t6 |; U; B( H5 \; M) Zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 k4 K. {+ I; B  P( T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 `4 D" O+ u! _- t
30,000 new households will form in the province during: P) S0 X" j6 J0 m4 ]1 }, D
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ E4 g- _4 b! W2 O$ m; k: QEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 U7 V; y% m# R& h5 g6 ?, H9 y7 a: Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ X; d1 S. b& z/ f0 ~; g" \' H: Tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 P: J5 V+ W, o7 w) z5 h# Q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( K, L3 K: k8 y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; F( h- W  D4 g7 l
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 w; v, y0 |  j" V% D+ m
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ P# o: Y, I0 \  [+ q. Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 t! B+ J0 f0 ^% Z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* r' Y4 \4 b5 q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 C; W/ U% z+ q  r. V" U5 W9 S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& i& `; J) R. g) ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( [; I1 Z9 L: |4 P; Ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 L% h* Z6 {8 T1 w$ t, V1 gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ p* l4 ^4 L$ {4 ^4 K% M
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' Z* F! O; b" H8 Vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  i, M4 T/ n0 e7 o$ G1 cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 ]+ U. I% e* B, y* mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 |% D2 o7 g" ]! V  {$ H4 nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 K* e- I$ G. f* A9 R: lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% @; ]. y) S) A3 g4 l7 mThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s  J, \6 R8 a, c0 q+ D' K5 U# R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 E; C$ [4 ]  v7 x* |, g6 RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 A& S% N6 ^3 O  H1 T$ y6 x. W) b9 ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ r. _5 K* ~  [0 O( w/ E% `
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, w" |$ m; C" V2 h, H6 kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! T3 q4 A- C' Othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 P# s2 e, p3 L4 X7 ?9 Y7 ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# _5 Y8 u' W0 `8 M/ {# \7 X
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( g8 x- x, y0 v; F8 J/ R( oresale price in February is evidence that past prices
- }' h1 A# w; n( O1 Eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" k6 b& a7 P* k% _& w  w
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; i8 z; V4 [* F3 l; D1 n$ Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 @3 v) Q* I5 q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ ]5 |2 m4 o! m0 M9 k3 g9 h
leg down over 2009.
, r* U% T* |8 c, ]3 J) c0 |# M  l$ e' q6 @& R. _; g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! c3 U, q9 _( v& L" z* h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
# r4 a& ?* T+ ~: m) [% V6 T- }$ x

: A1 g  u) ?6 }% t" |8 R& K6 ]# n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 v: N( G* N' R7 |! L翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
. S7 W# ]- x3 [% `1 V" `# E7 d& k* y6 e$ h8 X: `7 }
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
' m* N$ m% A, E) x! v
! Z- Z# \( x% {5 P- {' @' O  o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-7-16 20:12 , Processed in 0.152960 second(s), 19 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表