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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." b1 R/ n$ I7 z1 \: a, x8 B
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. # n4 x! E- D1 e- w3 N8 |  O; R

/ V. |. M, R5 T* S, h* v' LThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. + b; b* ~9 o8 }! p8 K* Q- R
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- i& W9 [# a5 f7 S
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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$ F. d. n( a$ B' Y; g- ^" }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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  b% P, u6 B7 T4 m" X; hMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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' H3 G% E; m+ p  ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。$ J0 B* v' W8 A  M5 @/ f: F2 o( z
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# G( q" `$ ^! C跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! f" I/ A$ N3 ^2 C# ^很多人都回学校深造去了
7 ]* g4 j8 h4 o: V5 m" i) b% w* D嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* l; a& j/ g  i0 w2 _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" O- j" O& x/ V% K* V6 Y" P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) K$ ?* b( E$ |2 v& t/ u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) W" K+ `/ T' a3 T* c& `! n9 O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 e, H5 r- I3 O1 S9 p+ ~: d/ A
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 m" D* _0 R2 J8 Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ N4 z* q1 |  M- z# T' h
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 I/ e3 g) y7 }0 y0 @may even cease completely during 2009. The previous  ^# n* B9 X( ?
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. H6 n4 d7 N$ S3 O
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! F7 x. C* x' Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 x' E, h1 T; h/ gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& A+ M; y* J( v  ^" ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' j! q8 v1 A$ d
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, B9 \& z- j# @, G) t) q30,000 new households will form in the province during: c' |" R* i5 {  @" Y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 _- k! n- B) j& y  w, v* M9 K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: t. |) i) P( o4 c1 z5 G  O% H" z6 u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. z2 I, g: ?# M- }* w
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 e" d$ l. n3 Hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ V. K/ {6 ^. K  z2 Y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
  ]$ Y3 B: s, q% H8 J' ~. r' L' Yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging  G4 r* ?* y: m6 M+ i1 T, U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 \* I7 ~1 E+ u* H2 y- r2 sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ w; u( x# h$ e! p; k  T' pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 ]4 x$ _& n: {6 a. j; ?( n$ U5 M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" V" @) Z7 o# V. h2 D1 O# `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 h0 S4 {! N; Y$ |6 `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& t, r9 e0 C; s% Ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 k  E& G! o& v
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 ]9 f* G+ O8 D; U# V- }3 e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 \3 L: t$ y( s; `3 ]+ f% u2 j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 ]( T, ~* g7 _6 m. f9 m. T% E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* h! e3 a2 |1 d6 s, g/ l8 L) emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 J) i) f+ n: M3 r
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, D' a9 X5 r# J* D/ R( S$ Qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% \  [# L' |' \$ o- V1 L# oThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, e; P7 l! B  C! V; _8 d* zboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' R, b3 H# R" W6 i7 ?! }
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan1 y% B  |! D3 Z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, V* K: a6 m* L  d. }- F- [  A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' {# T9 @" Z9 a' P" a/ r
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 N" i8 I: y7 J' e6 c: Lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 }" s4 M- S0 E6 a$ [6 k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) {8 R) }3 q# a9 k2 r; Q: K( @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ \' o/ G: M% d$ ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# i# C& K5 R0 R+ T# Q) t( xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 X- }  @) `' g* v- uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 L9 D' {, P6 P* S0 v: x8 ?  `( ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ E# k3 n7 S+ o8 r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% x, ~: x; O1 b: B; Vleg down over 2009." v& T- ]1 e# ]
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 }: ]/ ~, n6 A) v' EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 |( g$ h# l7 Q6 N; Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ G9 b/ G1 F6 V3 P3 _翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子7 X  q8 p4 K8 |

' @! U4 r" x; q$ g! X! jhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" V- Z7 ~. G! ?; E

) x, `. ~1 m' }/ M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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