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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 Z% F: V5 M2 c0 E! H; W
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
( M! `6 \% i4 A1 Q& [; hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 p f- l( @* ~1 P! f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! ~. x6 l6 j( n1 q* v- i: F8 V/ f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
T8 ]/ ^8 u! f: G, H' Q0 a" s0 Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 ]! [) h8 X$ w2 r4 T# j8 }* Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: ~1 [4 N- F+ F0 l& b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 d3 o+ V5 q6 \, c/ z6 U! c' r* z& N" amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous; w1 h# }9 x: a% Z$ w! f
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 M `% u5 ]4 U1 g( A' N
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 l6 ^# f2 \& k8 H( |7 k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, l3 c2 v9 O, @7 ?& ?6 q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) f" e" A$ U/ l. _6 g5 W- kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" c1 t1 d/ m+ P, R( o7 x; Y1 O1 Ahomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around n( g G* u. f3 z |/ l( z
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 g) q6 |: n7 ]0 y8 Q3 f: H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
, w3 K; i1 ~3 s8 ` X- IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 W2 ~$ V+ T5 T- _% U. k( w' W
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 f+ d2 w$ {) z1 \ h; Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( c% x3 B f3 U8 Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 h6 D; v7 [# ^. Yhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, D& i6 A; f5 }; q1 d% i0 Mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% y4 G q8 ^; ]: h1 |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 q, j' P1 S+ A1 c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& l' C5 B* p* b% Pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& C, j9 m7 U: U3 K- a4 X
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 I/ Y6 r+ D' ^/ g3 V2 U
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 j" G6 ~. S& v8 _ W. \; [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 j+ o# k ?0 Z% E
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 p- Y2 `( [; _ J, v7 Y) @. A
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 u* T) K$ C) ?# l% c
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ O- t O/ s( i; C! Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 X0 R& E( f2 ^7 l; c+ Presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 I7 N; Y1 R: \$ M" Umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 {6 A$ p( d5 z* m3 y6 o' P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- u/ x8 @' D% a; y4 j2 d& z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& d9 [+ H" \, A- B: V& }/ o
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ x3 O: F3 T; B0 ?boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ N! P/ e9 f$ G
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan: }% Z, I4 N, f, q+ q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 ?8 N) w; V9 \1 [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& `6 } r# @+ {
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: g7 V; s- q3 {8 I! }
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& _1 ^6 H( l7 y9 D
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) {5 d8 H- |3 ?' W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& X" C0 V( F* B4 U |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; R9 [" x# h0 Q# Q E5 ]4 ^exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& j8 k" O: V& E
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( J1 |: M9 D8 w% bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! E, k, \ q0 y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 q' u/ E2 z0 F: R/ ?2 p: Jleg down over 2009.
% C5 \# T9 [ r0 f6 m2 ?. \
~* r" x$ G2 a: Z6 P$ E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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