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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" h: h) C* Z0 u" U) E+ HWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 A2 R8 E8 i3 r, L# O/ }9 T n$ J6 v
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( Y/ o: R. @( Yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, D3 \% t8 K' A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, R& x# M' u* `9 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 T. N( I: A" u3 I0 m2 Q g
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 V" c2 |+ f% o& t7 O0 d' j, ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" f; u; b4 X4 `' x1 Y; bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# N }% s) W8 \: E7 K- w, Dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 r6 _ ?* v ]# h
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% M8 {4 L" @0 a6 w& cto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( {: u- b3 a0 K3 a3 Fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 }, U+ B' t$ R; s
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 s$ |% h: A$ v' n
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ x/ l4 F) o, J7 B. m+ z# W7 P- u30,000 new households will form in the province during) ~9 Z3 M/ D, I
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( ^3 m1 [: Q" q4 i2 m7 n' ?. c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: W3 O& s9 [: f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 o6 p4 Y6 d- y% P, O6 z" t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 ?* y4 L0 e% ^0 @; lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( h/ g9 ^- n+ b7 e4 S+ }3 Ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ r0 M# n) @ Rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ e4 t3 c2 `! N3 s
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 t e r5 ]* vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is y/ ]" r; u, t9 Y( [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 I! n+ b7 T( \5 }$ K1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 o8 Z, ~0 C* |' t/ v( S) E% J$ e
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 s/ z. @6 I) T; i) vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; W6 _6 W0 s" d, Q. ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 m1 D+ [1 N+ V) }* Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 I. X2 \7 v- S: O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, O- d8 s" J0 f5 {$ z8 s8 Drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ \$ M6 ]7 T/ H3 A) O% Rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ B% K6 U7 d* q7 p- {* V3 L
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 A4 {8 f4 A! X# O' ^of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! G* \) g2 o" S$ W( j0 v. v" K; ^rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 F3 O* [/ {: ]8 D) Y5 K& W
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( `5 ~2 ~# {: T% U' l- `# O5 ~
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% X/ A' V+ B8 S% f
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& T8 t) {/ e! b# X8 Z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& |2 Q) A0 L; P- a- Z( s" rrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
% U B7 M& s% H; m" j5 ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* R( a# v. t) {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, H( o" Z2 S6 J" [
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; s7 M1 [' B2 p# t* R( A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 t/ v) W8 A5 O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 B1 L/ H# I8 ?- I8 x, e5 fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' V7 B) z, D% w( W6 N4 shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' I- G2 F/ @' j- L6 d( o0 `
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; a! W+ Q0 a9 jAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# y+ ]2 d+ f4 ^( O0 t
leg down over 2009.
6 E) L: d8 J! U, D) a9 h4 o( i+ M/ a% K# Q" }4 n: V
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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