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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- T4 Q: n. _0 Y+ }9 b3 @) o& @3 t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 P. o* N+ j5 u L$ q* f0 Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 ]( F( P. D3 pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- W; A7 `' f: ^1 R3 u1 q/ t ]9 S2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 {3 d; R7 D) d. R+ e5 _" D6 [2 zformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 L8 }- Y4 M+ E
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 j' {9 N7 P$ C6 ^, r1 V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 \6 X) o7 ~+ q. k7 L7 {+ m2 vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ b! l8 e6 a* h) npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. Y4 h, F. s- D3 e2 J4 E9 W
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 D1 @2 w, N& k8 _/ i' d5 S; o+ b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" S: Z2 p1 J4 P5 L* ?prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! h h4 F/ ?5 _0 U. J3 R3 I& dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; M1 V6 n8 @$ y& b
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 H$ v- j+ g0 P% T30,000 new households will form in the province during
f$ P0 f6 w; H$ l8 b* R2 Q0 @2 R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 |0 U+ u& C) w4 EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 j0 x( a, d, v
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- M2 h I0 d2 l* K6 p1 Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ w2 t: y' ^( E* V- [0 hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& D+ K& O/ ]1 O% q; ]0 p6 Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 m* o( J, e/ s! L; y' f
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' y, I- \* @( G( `
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! i3 H2 `* V- O. hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) u8 j2 ]) d! [* y/ Vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( Y" [# ~ I3 R4 J" O$ {
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 }# c9 e9 z+ m6 c e. Z- e
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 ^0 X0 d7 y, m! Rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 M2 g; |! `. E5 W. o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( z& r% H$ `; k c; j+ r
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; G2 C8 Q5 r( A% s
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ X2 S H" I! Wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ C( r& K1 ~2 e0 K1 h4 X& a/ }$ W; c& [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 q D/ W6 Q( R. ?; ?. @6 Vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& Y+ y! Y H4 Z% c) }3 yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled" m Z1 A8 W2 M& }8 c" ?3 @( a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 D5 F7 w( m: S4 U+ c" N9 d( ^The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, c: }- E9 Q4 [6 |* g: [
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 w% I- \7 p \& T. T/ u6 x% wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
x: s# [) P7 x8 khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 p' t7 U* U( j, h7 }2 s0 ^$ Trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; t& z1 j$ l# n9 r' l6 rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 a4 z4 H" C7 V4 _" Uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 G% ~7 z( p* p, Eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 h; m7 b( t- a3 A! F S6 R* }' GThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( U$ x+ `, l1 z% r" G- l) s$ G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% I; v+ \( ^2 a1 k5 i# Z) v3 z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- B5 Q( X+ {8 U) z1 L
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 p1 r- F+ [# [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 `" Z, i/ R8 IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* P/ J$ B5 m0 n* q& C5 x7 `. }
leg down over 2009.7 \! W) T8 r& u( B
& r9 x0 s. ?+ `8 ^" K$ q5 B( @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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