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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.; W. O% S# b& M9 Q+ n5 [

; u7 N2 e' y. eTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ( `1 t0 B+ J: y2 q8 R2 g0 R2 N! ?

- u* a4 G2 y) g5 X* c6 W1 oThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . ^! k/ L) a  w" G: c+ m# E$ E  }

4 S! [2 b' I) I% O/ \6 s"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 Y" u3 o/ @# O# c5 E# T! X/ J4 ?

0 t6 `" d6 M. ^( \  D6 c* v3 ZNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  D1 k1 l, f# r1 y5 q! D3 [  @, I

: x. t  s1 u% Y( }2 @"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 ~) A; A# z& p% i  [; [& o1 Phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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; j4 Y" D9 `) n6 lTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。8 W$ R$ _8 G0 ^4 l
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 b" u: Y5 d) o; c5 z

& E  S" i7 i: u. z8 b, S! K! w# \[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 k( o* F# z* [, ~* f3 E' z: }
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

5 R* r6 F5 v9 V6 Y: }. v* h1 X很多人都回学校深造去了3 A" _1 J; p# a7 p$ A1 L. s
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta) t5 k( P) V" K8 e  C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" R; a. I! P; \
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ Y7 p* t5 a* U, a+ A9 N& T9 e- Mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. E! z; N/ K  S& c9 |6 M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 S3 z/ l) z. a, Y, i8 n
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. q& _% A  C4 ?+ M3 zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 s/ U4 L! {1 |$ R. Z+ \
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. h( {' ~$ l; U( Q/ R+ H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% A5 G! p7 x3 s4 e* d. H( W# a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: @/ V1 L& d+ J1 W" E& n& J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' d" g3 d* w5 M% ?to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# O5 W' |" B* l3 |1 Eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, X6 ?8 b6 a2 T# A2 S- I
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 ]3 u. H+ [5 }' H* r( Z8 N7 T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 y9 Q% C3 Q$ X1 N: r. N30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ j; `* }) v* e( I& a2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( f- `  Z3 m) M9 C4 u# R
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# q( a6 m6 \: M/ t: K5 Vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# U. {. i9 W- c: a$ y! d! W8 iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- D4 n: T! p$ M* ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 w8 E1 V" ?6 M. n* b# F$ Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ b- p9 w9 E, pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- Q6 F* m- c( h
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' f1 A& P, D7 A! }* z" \2 Y. R9 C
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 n: s! D# ?5 c8 }: X" ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. B1 O) h1 N9 g& ?3 D9 G) S8 }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; l# Y9 ?6 S# \1 i# @) `5 ?
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# I( }) p0 X% j) |. t7 j
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. Z! s" L/ o1 N: J; ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! g& `% B, e( S( G/ i0 D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ C: e9 H. w7 |9 g6 h2 b7 q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! H" R7 U# P. E- e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the* s1 Y" V$ |; u. B# ^7 }8 {6 S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 I3 p( J, S" S1 w/ o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* o& |! j9 B( ~, u5 ?
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# @1 d3 m  _% ]7 Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ Z0 [1 T# L. l/ X- a. LThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 C4 T: y! w( E7 s; ], g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 a; D! E5 r$ h! H' _* K6 f
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 u. L9 g; l+ t( P
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' l/ m% T# J( N$ \
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- N, W# j" |6 t* }prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; w  [3 w( g' c" U# r/ Sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# y9 @  M# H6 Z; v" oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; V9 z) j8 T. \0 n: `# G+ X: B5 x) B3 rThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# t3 i- f) d2 T& [
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; u( J5 l2 S/ ]+ u1 z6 |exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 q! ~) O9 W( i6 {; [  }* g! e1 c/ |- C
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 Q% n  `: S$ |
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* V) i" y" p, x% NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 M8 S* b: f3 }5 N; O
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# V: K3 J4 B* P1 G5 L" k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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) Q5 I, e* ]' W2 _; ]) S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 g6 F2 B9 K/ R- G& x' z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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, r. y3 I2 g' a  ?http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments1 n& J, p0 y4 H6 E) T7 x1 M

% Z1 c- M: h& {: O" n5 @2 R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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