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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 C" i( O. v: N7 \; w' L3 V

2 I% T4 c2 I/ m! xTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : U4 J% Z+ ]  }# M4 ?$ f  e0 ~

# w) S$ T7 p2 @* S6 `( UThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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; ~( U5 B5 i# U! \$ ]8 a3 Q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ; \6 C& f4 z0 g. X8 @
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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% q' t; [1 Q! Y& F+ fTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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" g9 [2 c) e, q2 Y7 M8 y; q" p" X"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.0 G6 N4 y( Z2 l& C

3 g5 A- `& f: W# |6 U, b2 d3 WMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 x9 Q2 x5 M' Z' |* O4 t
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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3 n) m5 [1 d2 VTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
% v' M: P, W+ p2 ~0 V& Z* y$ O! B+ I- R! K! A
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ n& z6 z8 ]9 m, v+ @/ K2 R 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ R9 t; S0 H' E5 Z8 N

3 S" a$ O# T6 m7 C, h1 {4 W[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * P- d9 Z, Y4 x  d# c) w
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
3 H: F0 u3 s) N8 Q+ }3 u+ V嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- m+ w% b# N$ d( S' C2 T9 kWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 t! N" J; a) K0 _3 ?- g
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  Q: I5 u* V5 i# a% \, kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ j: R7 h2 n" }/ o# k, t" P
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" [3 x$ v+ n' G% `5 ^9 b
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 X, X2 W+ r. i) p$ M1 j+ |$ Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ j* a+ q2 R+ Z2 |' w6 H* Pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 T  ^# l' e3 p5 O1 `
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 X6 o; w* T6 ^) g6 `5 h2 G1 d) fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; B8 {( z% w+ a; }: gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ T. B' x/ r& Q: V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ |5 ]! y3 U/ j2 J! U
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" i( N4 T& \6 {# |' H1 f( g7 Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ J8 J% ?( X/ u3 V4 F  Xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) `  |* }6 z6 ^9 ~9 @# n- X" C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 L9 m/ L/ F1 Y+ I7 Z+ Q) Q  o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 e/ N+ k$ [  O8 bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* `- v1 O. W2 K0 fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 X& c/ {! E. R1 t& b
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% j0 {" T$ M* n% f  M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 K* s2 s* b" k( p  U4 q$ A, whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% a" V% L& u# H* M  S) [
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; D, }7 a. n( V1 ~+ i& u" ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! C- J8 E: l" N" W0 g( E- v  u6 }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* h% K8 s, n+ ]; A. T( A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 q; t+ L( H: \. m1 R# X& }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; _7 v* n" W/ h7 G" a: W" Asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* T) K- l+ \/ U7 W) ?buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 Y# I, C' `! r* ^( J6 s
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. R$ c( ~& ^; s8 P$ g5 ?- _unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. y. A* U& p: V; P+ w% D
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 Z' z) V4 @, T5 b+ {8 urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 q1 [0 B# S+ W
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* |/ N8 O0 O% D6 N) u  @9 T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 W" I7 b5 l3 b* lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 b, w( e$ N3 |* g' [) T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 |1 ]! V+ h( V; w1 ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 J/ [7 u# k2 D' ~8 r! {
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) {& k& v% {! x! J0 j  sAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 Z- i' C; `! uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ [, ^6 V4 m8 S# j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" c! O2 p( }6 x  N  Kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 J8 T7 M4 f$ S8 R+ x4 c$ m1 ^) d0 @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( ^" C6 p# a- R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" y6 T7 w, `' j9 {: x( w) o% h* LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. |" j9 T3 ^) V4 {( s
resale price in February is evidence that past prices" t8 X& L4 v5 J5 v3 P
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# ^7 w3 X2 E. I& ]6 f# d! r* X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, F- _) w& S2 ~% {: F3 R' t
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' G+ S4 B0 I5 y" q- cAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* a) q# P7 o  U9 {* @leg down over 2009.  V  w% {4 ^3 j
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 e' X& |9 L/ l+ S) O. \
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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0 [" S9 w% _' X" a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' P, J* y0 T" I# x! N, p
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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' @- c& n* n( R& f4 x$ v+ q3 Ihttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments/ o1 ]" s/ Q( x: s% O
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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