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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 ~5 G7 R9 l% x9 a

+ D* t% ~# E5 R6 Y3 b: T: a- n8 JThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . n4 ~8 ^  w- e  r( j5 M% q

" V6 O9 a8 \! x( Y' e# h0 {2 A"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % E% p  L- ~$ b4 S
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) j" `/ G0 T) R4 }& r9 K

/ U- @* j) M& WTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.9 c" @  d' X" P$ A! T& l2 ]

% o. r% F! |1 {2 tMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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6 N# U: Y. i3 `* h, ~* R' U" Nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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9 h3 [3 R' h6 t* eTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 ~' _: T2 O* t- q" ` 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表   g, W! E: f& o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
0 l! m0 e/ y* E. ^2 V, q0 i嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
5 \) p% V0 E9 b* c, NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 d) }4 p* _) Z6 O( _boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 B$ f( U( p0 A$ n, D+ Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
  R1 w% U( H) X  k# u# l' O; K( g9 U2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 G' b* j. \+ ?  H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 \5 D' b  X9 A% Hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 d$ U) I3 ?$ F6 w) Q7 G
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' v! ]: U8 _- x8 q; U9 y$ x
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ P! y6 Q/ x  ?  I9 |pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 i9 _9 q- X( R4 H# wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* j( Y. g- B5 B& q( q# f" @
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" D/ p& o/ p1 L( Hprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' y  E% ~, D& R4 ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# t. t  D& G& \$ C9 }5 V/ x* ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# j% d9 A9 n5 n6 K& j
30,000 new households will form in the province during  C! P# |" {& C
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- Q2 l% {- m# [3 @  oEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% ^# Y4 P- n4 n. lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 |! m+ @6 `2 z1 Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: L! C7 l: M0 a
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 N. n% G, [5 ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 B5 n+ e2 H) L: S1 g  t+ s
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- j1 W' ^: ], D$ P+ msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' J* j& o5 N0 `5 j8 h6 Z+ I7 f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* _3 j: s& j" Z' nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* M3 I" J+ t1 Z8 w- H
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- r' V, ~8 k4 E) V% @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 k, \; f6 }% ?1 ]buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* k% C% U# m3 @' ]$ k1 K' qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" q8 f9 c' l! p( aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' z: j4 I7 Z1 G9 u. y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& s2 J$ F4 x/ d, ~2 E0 b4 }
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( h' `8 D3 Z* W5 N4 _
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ I# f, m8 @. f# O2 R+ C* F+ _5 D+ w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 j9 p3 H4 T1 d2 E. E1 M+ D- ?
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 Z- g- Y5 I. g" M. {' Y: P0 |6 f4 M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ u( O7 G7 b7 AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 S) C( J6 w8 P4 O$ W! ?
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% D2 B1 U: M% W
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& U1 {, U) E8 C2 Q7 l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" E1 `! f2 c' Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: O1 V& Q& h0 C# j9 o
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* d+ ~5 |9 o; }4 R" n3 Vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 ^. M6 c6 Y8 U- {9 ^on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ ?1 S* G* _/ H8 e2 @, AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ ^- F# M' {5 K  m! V5 {& Vresale price in February is evidence that past prices+ P: R% n; R; Y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% E% d$ }' i; p6 ^* t4 y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 I- Z$ X) t. M0 }# C6 L: ]) \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, D  A# j( X- L! ?) L
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 i  V0 M& Z7 |2 s' o5 Yleg down over 2009.
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$ z' X; |& K# X4 ~$ e* o4 ^& H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 q6 F: J. H; \! `2 XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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' f" r5 \  u- f/ s7 Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   E5 o+ H3 B  m* T
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子% i: I+ F5 E9 W) {- X- w9 Q4 U

% R7 }8 R1 [. k  j  ^http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments8 k( A9 Q: s/ m: k- S& T/ N2 ~

% |+ Q3 n, j, d, g2 S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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