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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta, x3 j$ Q# m9 ^- w0 r8 A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* S, w) }4 o: C2 h& n" n
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& Z8 ^6 Z @# R' p& hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 F$ M# n% p! Q' V# t* ^: X8 }
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ \1 I" g4 c- Q0 W& Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) b5 @5 r6 [/ \9 _& c7 K1 g/ S
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. J: G9 @( A. j6 N5 @3 e9 |' i& j7 Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 }* c0 V2 \$ a8 Umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous \( m, j: }; w/ W9 m
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, t5 L, i+ Q1 L9 V D" _4 r# [: qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined) u7 w* U/ D E+ s) D5 z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ T. e. ~: _1 _0 Oprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 y* L& L9 ~5 J: F* c( Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; c$ {5 B. r* h* o5 T/ I' v7 Q) H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 W. ~; X( @# A, p: S! R! O x
30,000 new households will form in the province during( e1 @5 t$ S6 }* _8 y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 E9 ^- }5 ]. F2 e( T& N/ R
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 |6 N* ~9 r* g) D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 K2 `6 B" J" P" i6 P5 r" q& [during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* ~ I( k* _0 m7 T$ _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) X# C' q' r" c& b5 a3 Y7 T
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ o2 U/ D8 E" h' y4 nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging f% v, ~/ T' F$ ]
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# n6 ^; i: p1 P' N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 N. A4 l! D& [- b5 p5 {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 h, U0 V+ s4 |# E3 V6 H2 X
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% _# H* k7 Z5 g# q5 h7 D1 `
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 R. D a/ L( Y( Z5 O4 Q3 ]2 b; R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 `, X& ^6 P! K) B/ M+ t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: O+ |) T, w$ f! x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' E+ L' k4 W6 M( R7 d- ]
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& \. M# L6 m/ F: X2 n7 H
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ Y" l! S+ i" S9 u. p, q nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) W3 i. L$ A7 ~4 h: {' l4 |: ?- ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 c0 i4 _$ [3 A1 V/ vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 `& M; p$ A5 m( c, [& Q2 Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' l' S" j9 M( F, m' K# w7 q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 @. Z1 |4 Q8 [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ d0 F7 {8 U) m2 }: Q5 V
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! Z9 H, A* w, E5 ^4 F. w! F7 n& Ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ y% z" D! ?( B8 m- i/ h2 y% P
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- N2 B! j2 E2 n# O- ]9 a: Gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 S ^/ u) a7 F+ zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% W2 ~% J7 H! ^on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ R9 a6 L ^ y* ~/ f/ O( H2 BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ m" U3 c9 K4 l5 b; o, A- A4 N& w' J& presale price in February is evidence that past prices. w4 B6 u# p5 [) T4 D
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# }6 M9 T& B, u1 |! v' ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’/ m0 a) D* B: I: f5 w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ P- E2 J3 W3 G1 h6 aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ A6 m6 Z4 p7 K' S. J' ?/ ?5 T
leg down over 2009.2 v7 T0 h* Q$ m: o/ h
/ U) _3 ^. ^9 s5 Y1 g" Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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