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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
& ^" f( H3 I: S% H4 p6 I. nWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 O9 k3 S/ E8 l4 F& b, i' s$ Hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% L$ u3 Q6 W/ ]- Y( O7 i9 yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 f m( n: y7 q H' d2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 C+ c, f) u' g) j3 M) wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. y# [4 O5 ?+ ?; b W% F* E% _' h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! a) R; P2 i8 qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ |* v0 _* U3 Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 }& F& @% {$ y* g3 O+ F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( _: R' i5 T; x4 j0 x
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 i2 r1 R# ^0 Q$ o) X" Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) T7 p/ C) f4 ~# z$ {0 X4 X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- T$ w& n; U: M% y" y: B! t# ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," I- O$ b& q% R& v" G1 u; M
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. p" C1 F' `9 R& t7 s" D
30,000 new households will form in the province during9 ~6 t) R. m5 g! H5 k0 X+ n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; |9 h Y9 W, z4 S7 K& TEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* {' x8 R5 o" g- O; j/ M6 }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 }3 t+ d, Z/ D* A
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! r4 t j/ ]& B3 Z7 m$ s, F0 b
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" v, X" x6 u: u/ |" ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 K8 }- W( T9 u5 r# Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, [# h2 L, w; w6 l! _& Lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ F# g0 n* t" M! l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% j$ |& q' v. t& _* r4 p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 G3 E$ f1 |3 l9 f) k% m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' A7 r9 J" V3 A( W8 p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- _& ]# R3 J8 j6 C' g& o( F
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( x: g p6 S! stwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in D: E" x9 x( s2 O! z$ O
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) o6 \: |' ~+ ^
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 L( z) b3 g8 x! E# krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* q9 S# b1 Y: Eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 @2 k& z1 X, U' N2 J# a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( i+ ]$ `0 F, x3 o- {0 f0 sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* ?3 l6 _3 _# Q% X% l! urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" ^: M% ^+ i b, xThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 ?' x3 D/ G0 F! T2 [ r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! l& Q, z! u ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ n* K- G( N+ g; p! j6 B0 J. d
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 u) o F- Y# v; D: q' H2 {" M3 q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale Q# z1 H; x' y; l2 E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 R" t0 O% W, P7 c: ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 t `/ h4 E/ Z. a+ w* u7 ion average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# c& {9 z3 d. D; b5 I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; @4 o7 g. e0 k/ h7 ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( Z5 X. p9 R1 ^' p) R+ Eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ _2 k4 ] \; S" U+ c. o9 m% Thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* u8 z' _7 k5 @1 Y: g) e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# v# F8 o G9 i/ j3 A! H, y7 ?2 ^3 cAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 J6 B j3 n! I4 e5 O) u1 R; A
leg down over 2009.
7 D, ]& ~5 n- {) r% k1 @- p2 k6 u+ W! v" T+ a$ X% |2 W
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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