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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta' k; l n, E7 v, J. m0 e3 _' k% g/ C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( L& h6 k& c c4 M
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ C: y6 O( C; Z+ ] e7 a
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 `* C4 H1 j/ O% Q$ F7 g& G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% H6 Q, o/ H3 }* [6 Lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 ^0 ~# ?, S2 e2 i2 _; X& m
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) z0 W4 q$ S, y- k2 r
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 d- P: a" P* o- \$ x6 Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
4 r. r4 [! e4 B+ ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- a4 I. g4 _+ I: T/ I4 K2 [, L7 J8 B
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- _( ?# _. W5 s/ X8 c" ^3 Sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" g6 J7 ~/ j0 s2 Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 v& N! c/ B: s1 W vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
& M- p P m, @: T: h# yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 z; Z# B! V4 P( [/ `7 |; n30,000 new households will form in the province during$ B7 }; r C3 T8 L8 S1 l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 f+ C1 K+ I' T) F
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. C# `2 [9 U/ \; y( Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& f* q+ d3 u9 d7 m. N5 a7 R# R
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! i y. T! o+ P Ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 Z, w8 Q- K, ]( Hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 K$ i, H& i R8 r* Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) `- v7 G7 W9 @. Q1 z( A, @sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 [- B6 L4 \1 j" ~& _2 w& Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& w; B& D% k9 f. s0 T( e
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 I2 |4 y5 s$ S4 e2 b8 G+ `1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 _3 o* ^0 t6 L) U0 y- D$ T; W
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 q% A& i$ j4 V, L1 f# m
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( Y, s1 M; R1 g# m& L: L, B0 w" R+ _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) L& T, H! U( t+ O) j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 @. C( [0 ^7 m: m x u
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 D2 x6 }: N8 I, z& L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ W0 ~' R( W( |" b) W# m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# m9 @, g+ ]- v$ L4 Vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' L. G0 B) L, z; B. O# K1 C/ |! T
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; Z1 s9 A. z! X& c9 b
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated. ]8 C+ s0 Y, l& Z0 {
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 v+ D. ?" B' P/ k. }& }! I9 C: Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& s" L) K0 g5 Q0 WAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan7 W! C4 T" f! @( l, s' l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ L' {- I/ x9 R# S* c7 y% V, _+ Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 Q6 u: H- Y/ R/ W6 f9 P; Cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 @% N) y N3 u; ]5 ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
~: e5 {" w: H9 Con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ p0 S( N2 L' C. _$ M
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 U( Z- @& L" G9 j2 o+ J6 s' n6 nresale price in February is evidence that past prices
$ x2 u- w0 f0 [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( K1 y! }& }4 f: A+ {9 X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 ]* x" V% v5 s* ]
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) n/ J$ `+ q0 y+ D7 r; y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. W0 W3 F- z5 Hleg down over 2009.
" Q& i# u2 U8 N6 _
' v0 `+ x0 y2 Y I' n5 o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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