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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta8 B j& f1 }& m. ?. W0 \' A% a1 R. f+ j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) P7 W4 P/ p! L5 \9 D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; o( e2 N1 s. yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ D3 o4 U6 u+ _$ |* B; }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% R- F- U9 m4 Q5 @! C+ |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* N9 V+ U$ P" U1 L9 r8 Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ Z4 \0 b+ s/ ?9 c! `) p9 mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; a6 z K' A; @0 x& f: V( r* rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 L8 C- N" W) h$ ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, {, q' K& c2 V% H) K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 x) N8 A/ p$ C4 n4 R* B9 X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: H- J. |8 d0 n! B! i% x# u; D; O: Lprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. M# U( w. c% f% e6 C0 j; ^& w! h: vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 j k5 f1 T* ~ x2 N5 C, phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ O/ C) ?! D0 T; e- ]8 o30,000 new households will form in the province during. k7 B p1 P/ {3 u8 c5 [$ V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., N- {( y& e2 ?& G* _) ^4 i9 L( L' I
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 _/ n$ ]- N7 q: m+ \1 z# khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! M/ o" j8 @. G
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% M6 }) A4 a8 O- G; khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 F1 g3 H% S X, Z, }+ Y5 x r
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) b5 v/ ?# l- w! n1 x- h
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 ?! }5 M# p1 D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 E, h$ x0 v& }8 |( E: L. N9 a+ n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 E) c4 S' B) f, s' Y+ \1 G. c
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: O$ ^8 A$ l8 a* [3 ^: c: \6 h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! y( A1 G7 q3 F* E
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive a: r& j3 P6 o7 k9 J6 W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 b5 I7 i% o3 r* s; f6 O
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% G |# f3 H+ S7 A. w, B$ @' [2 [
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 }# x6 y/ b$ q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ x. I& e2 g5 r3 f- u A3 Grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 h, l$ X0 ^' r/ h4 P8 S7 Y' Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- T; U# y) O6 o- N8 J% x2 xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 B3 ~1 l+ w! Y* [8 j6 c6 U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; o( W- k9 ^, N' P- e* Z- xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ C: C" j9 l' f' a1 m
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 H/ i! L- N" [4 n2 f4 _1 l2 B4 ]9 X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* [ n: a$ E9 z! ^
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 `3 i9 v- ?$ _' i7 h/ Vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 E9 Z' r& l' l ?0 S
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- k ?: T5 |! g4 }
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 V2 F; ~# ~7 C q, ?; d
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 ]$ N5 L1 [. M6 b$ z2 ~3 ]. P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! s( `9 J" i. F6 u. W; c
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 Y$ \- T7 w5 _; p- Y$ V
resale price in February is evidence that past prices: h! H) Q1 r1 f# j( ~$ D( @& g- g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. j! s2 c7 S( R8 \5 n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! I1 V& ]& R( N7 E' qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 L$ h, w; E" F/ c' V0 `9 d# EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' o6 t! C9 I$ S. P6 e" Fleg down over 2009.) ^/ B: _* v$ M5 l$ a
) @ ?/ g1 \- F/ m, T: O& X' t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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