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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. ]* C+ b, o6 s* y) B. {, oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 v9 m2 a7 {) j! L e6 M& D1 M& S9 zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! L6 s/ Q, h) X# B; ~1 Ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 U: U+ b+ L+ Y" V! w
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# _, [3 @0 ]2 }- Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: V6 y1 w, U4 v. q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,+ G" m& ? O: b4 ~" \
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 X7 J# ~; r9 D3 G( H1 \6 |8 }
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; ^9 V1 X1 x. _. J& u3 G$ Ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 @. V% P7 U1 }/ r3 P( ^6 D) |) K {
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 ?$ F# x/ e! I# ]
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ p4 q" f/ o2 I- ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 S' }0 O0 v" p; S6 \8 [2 syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& @3 l$ b0 }0 R5 V1 F
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) b% f7 A9 |6 T! h, T7 c7 g30,000 new households will form in the province during& c' e/ q8 Y4 J# ~$ J7 o$ c) V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 W# R O ]$ e
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( L7 A* q/ v: T9 k7 {7 A# |0 X
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% |3 b0 o% z! K( m) \
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 X) f9 t; v5 B$ ]8 A. y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 @, d5 c: C5 Q# b: j1 k* h% f1 G$ r' e
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 W. ~# [3 }7 t( N
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 p2 v' R4 q! y5 a) [1 m% Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" J8 N$ w ~8 j( ~1 x: Dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ J7 o/ ?) X; s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 t* R1 X5 `6 u; G; M8 r% b& ^& I1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 v* C# z- P. b+ U
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ }- [$ a* y/ X x; Y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# D( [( Q ?' b3 r5 l! r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 N# o5 |. [+ f3 gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- n) B2 c. R7 z6 i; \9 {unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 o: Q& O x6 c' r2 p( g
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( T4 n& W2 ^% X- b, l* O0 kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 A* M7 w% D. i/ s; E3 p) Y" ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; m' |8 s( h7 b& z8 R) fof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 |/ E) P6 X# k) F6 i7 ]' Y# C, V
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( c8 P( ] U2 p) m$ AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; z6 ^, {: x6 t" f" ]( ]; }
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# }- |: y6 h2 K) P) N% K" t$ P8 i y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
* t0 m: U/ H$ q1 o0 Rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 f. [7 r( @9 r2 d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) X4 z" H- P" r! L1 |/ L+ uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even* ^) T* P4 _9 E* R, n
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. E- h4 ]6 u$ c! C3 Q m- E$ b' f1 R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 y& D* y7 M& {9 OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( m ~( p2 V( y" ]: N$ C) K7 Vresale price in February is evidence that past prices' }* [- I; K" f% J6 q; m
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 S; N) r0 m) g7 q! {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, z$ z% i! V1 \/ P- c1 P+ z
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 c0 X* V9 [. s- W" LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 R8 Y. o. @$ zleg down over 2009.: k- j- I0 ?) P# n& L8 j# o) g
; g/ y3 S) m; Y o& F
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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