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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
- x' s t: [$ S" s0 t. qWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 b- o7 l; t$ [' w9 c7 Y3 y2 b& n
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! r6 A3 `7 L# x
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* o- E+ u, B9 Y/ q. F; z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( C, ]$ K d' C9 ]6 q3 s7 Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided+ ?* u @( C1 I+ p& y7 z/ [
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 R; z& ]) n7 o& E" v" q' O$ Jthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* Q) Z' |; x" F1 v, s. ] [
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
Q3 t2 A/ A6 Ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 u L$ I' C S/ R- u& t, f
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; G) B Z e5 p& f9 D) |to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. a; B5 A+ _0 J' Q' Q7 Qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 Y. d4 a# k/ j7 @$ i9 w5 Y8 Byear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ o. N% b) Q8 a4 D7 O0 v" w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 a- \! l" ?* S: L G4 t* x. Y+ b* u30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 Z3 j6 U Y0 x) x4 S2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" i3 v. F4 O" V$ a. J( PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 \5 I( O( Z8 A! m4 G8 R2 V ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- m L& {. C( X' t1 Q, Z. c) x- yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ `$ O% c" d: W2 _5 I* w
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; b" r5 g8 i" y( ^households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 ^: U3 `* {; z8 ~! c- s2 E7 G
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ ]/ |% r% F4 H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
E0 _2 {9 L& w5 y. C4 b0 Gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 f/ v$ N1 {0 d3 P" `
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- b d+ J3 M: F; V" T' A$ a9 A1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. L5 G% G0 h$ {& ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 G. `; ]7 T) ^1 r! X$ j( Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, Z9 C9 S: O* \7 V, ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 n* T4 Y* D; m' Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; c) i5 k3 a, K( g8 `2 }9 Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) A5 j# x, B7 U
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the y/ Z/ P9 |2 Q. o. \; O2 }
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- F# ~! a1 w# ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
K& w; N- l3 X% @of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. @8 A; s: D: N# S. n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ J+ |* Q. _2 F5 v0 XThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& B Z( k* Y: I7 @ ?$ C5 B. r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
m, D, o C3 J( t/ YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; v1 [' s8 _8 P1 I% v( o
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 J9 F1 R: ^' r: Q7 I, O" q) ~8 \. Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 U$ N, R( a1 }" A* n6 G
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 B8 e; z5 g* `/ H; i7 i8 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' v. O( F/ V) U: I8 a% a& X6 J5 v D* z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 ]4 q! V$ T6 D
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* h* r5 [! o6 E- h8 V
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 `. Y0 t4 h! ~, R- I- q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 V( W0 r0 q L7 a* }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% ` d! M& [5 n0 ]8 U% I" B: N! odeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ T6 J* O* }- e$ ~" C+ N% ]Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( U* Y* j' G2 y: Z( ^8 Z! R
leg down over 2009./ a1 K% P; k9 a" f1 o+ l, z
+ a6 P/ m. o3 U* ^- u* `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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