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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 w: R8 G1 ]3 x

4 S- @- L, T; q- p! U! y' g2 D# b0 uTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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2 L- P* Y5 _9 ]The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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4 K3 n+ @/ q* \3 c/ }3 x5 g2 e8 E"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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, \- e7 I# m+ `Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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# v7 d, ]$ i- FTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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) x4 ~7 Q0 P$ D7 \5 a& |"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.9 ~. c" {9 T8 B/ }

/ K5 }2 z4 B9 Y8 O/ u6 o3 MMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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& x) M! W' V& L! Rhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, G( Q. m0 d+ A* C, S3 T% }
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
- C' e5 G9 j) i% g8 \; Y; Z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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% h. J% d4 G5 G0 K4 {[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
8 F- U$ f. R8 o4 m0 a$ [跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

& W  G8 G7 n  O; i' g$ b6 M很多人都回学校深造去了. L. A8 ~9 n  c) E5 a% I
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 P3 T7 u8 ^' t0 D% K1 N7 `: u# j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 I8 @1 w2 X- O) W! r- Z+ }boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 _& W" T3 }$ P4 L; D: Y  d: Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
  |: o' c: G2 i/ Y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 [) a: ^2 |8 U
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 ^% E  V2 l& `) j( u9 w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% {* B. {0 k/ n# @% g3 ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 p. W* y( X2 z* O* B$ ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 {. ]6 ~5 X! a% o% h
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 G9 O; |' z( Q6 f0 m
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! a/ X- a# X1 G  x+ J6 f. ^to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, @- K' i) z/ F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 Y( x( I9 l3 _3 }: j2 O+ g9 f" Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 L: F2 ~6 |& m0 d2 Ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 \) ~! b2 ^$ z4 m$ ~, I
30,000 new households will form in the province during( M( Y. z" L% i- {, x7 I
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ }, y6 F* m; \# `: j; j  C- Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# @% q+ H0 s9 n/ h# A
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ [' B5 ]* w) @" J* E. U" Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* W$ L9 q) C* i4 s
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 \  `  _4 O0 Q9 X! `6 _6 d. m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' ~% Z. P7 {  N0 _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, x( V7 S0 W$ I8 g& S- b
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 z5 a( Z5 Z- T2 F% Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* \# Z* K9 }- A! E. S' L+ A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; \4 `( H, L, @0 d! G
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ W. m+ j8 a$ |1 ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ w3 c7 B. l  L/ x5 T" E' qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  p+ c7 }4 H$ H6 Z8 `3 |7 S' x- l- ~3 dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 Y4 B$ ?; P- d& o$ U; @3 n- Funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' u% y2 x2 v# e% ?' c4 p* e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) b6 V  u5 r. I- G; l, r& ]8 N
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 f3 }2 R, D* z6 w# D" R  t8 \3 ~
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 e5 |; I# ~" D! c7 J  h/ I4 w5 r( Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* r' L5 k$ W  \# C5 G5 x( T$ ~2 F3 G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# V, w9 b0 B& vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: \/ W( `9 s, |" v
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: o6 l3 C0 [4 v3 ^1 K( Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 l2 ]; M% d7 R! CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 m  }( x! x, uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( A. T0 v% f6 z' y6 ^' w5 d" l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ l) J3 M" H( ^* c+ i7 d/ d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 R# a* j3 ]' H2 ?5 X+ y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 T3 c5 v, v+ V- c
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. W. d& v2 Z! ~: a* {" hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; H4 o# `; D8 j8 Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices# E5 a' g$ a9 m# c  Q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: Z/ |+ Y- H3 g2 _9 {5 I, X  p: j, Xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' H) d% w8 U3 o1 \5 w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; w7 y* Y( I! U
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 l+ M" p. R2 tleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  z' V" k' F) k; n" [" f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ ]* w+ y3 j2 v0 m+ |. l# C
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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- J8 i" {+ c& f8 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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