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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 j/ l, [# V& C6 V  X! ^6 U
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. " s+ a5 A- g& K1 L: ~
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. , i" L6 H6 I8 M8 i% Y
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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6 ^2 ^- i3 d6 k; S: Y2 V" |5 DNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# _$ H9 Q" T3 w; e5 `, m% B' [- e

6 b8 U) u( E$ ^" ?9 u) C7 B4 N: iTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% y# R) M" Q6 g6 d  v8 kTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' h+ V0 z8 y- D2 ~: U. t+ u
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 C# _* S$ d1 J2 u

- P8 O$ p5 D0 W% a[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , O: U* [6 Y) |- F+ b
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

9 l' H. a2 l" |; [/ g很多人都回学校深造去了
9 }7 A( u% L" C# l0 J- c; V& C嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' X$ d0 T2 W; \/ ?* F8 I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# R! }6 [; ~2 M6 U" C- q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 }2 C) v6 S7 U: \: o3 \! s7 U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& G5 V  k& ^% i' \0 ~0 m! d2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* [9 y, U& u$ H8 b; W! U5 C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. T: i( k7 D! W, c1 {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' [$ f4 C9 p7 Xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; X: {: m6 ^6 Q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' S$ |) G- Y2 M) }* |, y: z. o: Npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 I2 v$ k9 E( N& l2 d- zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 K' _6 Y8 ?9 K* k: T. s0 uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! c0 e+ P: S* @$ h. X8 }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 h, }* r1 A, \8 @3 y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 j: b: \% I6 a8 k
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ N$ K4 ]8 q7 R- F: N30,000 new households will form in the province during
* t7 Z& D( s( P* b2 f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 k! K+ B3 x9 S( \! [Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. e% o4 w  U: i; ~$ t0 }6 ?% }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! u, }; R4 X% w' a/ y: U
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' E7 g1 x& k- N% Y# l' ~, N7 O
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 N8 `% D) U# r* H1 O: Phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- [1 Y' j9 o5 j# u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 K7 W2 |3 Y1 ~
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 I# p: E' Y, Z1 @9 n5 @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 W- n" K  k% Gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 v( W* }0 D: S+ R# e1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. o7 n2 ^  c1 Q; F1 Z4 c% dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( L) g4 U$ g; R) g& l5 wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- U7 A, B" y; P- e) t# h( B$ r* `
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! @, x# f3 K# {; i( X3 m0 C8 w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: I% I. W( g- e3 P- r9 @2 xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 R  a* m' A! Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 r: ~* y) C  ~
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 H* B2 d' P# b$ h: e$ U
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories; y- I3 \3 r1 \1 M( P( l
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# O7 _  S( _# B& ?$ e5 E# }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., Z8 P' T' d9 t; m! Z4 J( r
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 S% f/ U! A9 ~
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 K2 _- t$ `3 @5 Q$ f
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* d6 C% k" ~3 X* K  S2 p; j  V" d
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 \, \7 l- B9 S, v2 I0 i9 Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) S5 `$ w! R; {' @% [
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even, H* T, D  _; H: X' ~. B& ~
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; t+ Y$ }# @+ [4 T' g& e5 v3 xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; J# r& F  B- L0 l; aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# w. n/ S( _" \: k+ {3 L
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, {$ L7 F3 V0 lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: }) }  _  B+ s1 \# ]homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; U4 G& @& w, R" Fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& E; c- G" u- Q- s. G+ U8 _+ m3 WAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 l7 x7 L0 j9 u% aleg down over 2009.: b0 q  g9 W7 N

% c. |: O0 |; I! _. Y/ K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! e  _. R" O& L1 r2 a7 s+ w9 ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- J: m2 x/ c5 Y4 }0 v+ c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子3 a1 m+ g/ R5 s/ T; x
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments, W3 z' C& B& [8 n$ F' @
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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