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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.+ ?3 F- {/ C$ u3 ^2 O: A
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ) _) u" s0 ]! }8 j! w- ~$ o) T' ~
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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9 M' O8 G8 M7 H& I1 C"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 2 k" z- x; y0 h

- \" a. r$ a- n) _/ h( U, j! L( \5 nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 n% f8 ?5 G/ j3 F$ }" Y- s
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。- b3 h, N2 B2 ^5 Z9 K7 B2 |
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
2 l3 l8 N- `! D: |4 D+ Y* I跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了. q* Y. z5 c6 H6 u: P) d; X1 _
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 p5 K5 z9 {2 L# ~9 M& K
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; y, E" P; Q7 f4 |2 c% _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& n( i' \" d8 N: n$ K3 ?: ?6 Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 |/ h0 J0 L3 f: j& F( V9 f" K, X  R
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! a! Z+ H$ I7 l0 N6 m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# ^5 W6 j2 b- }% l$ Z+ C& |3 u
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 U( p' }: W( ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" a  O3 l" I# `6 H  {' zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 h+ @1 K  u& E; F9 G' A, l# f
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ ~3 q7 e3 g3 I+ n3 Y5 Wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ h0 F8 i" l. W7 \3 v% _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. \/ O) F! A: L) K  C  Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 j% t4 o3 f, I- ~4 g( H% P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" {9 I$ q# w7 }$ A! Thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 [! j$ v+ O& `) V: O5 x
30,000 new households will form in the province during
' R5 I+ ]4 K6 L# X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 ?/ V/ P" \% m: \# T9 W# |, f
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 G2 ^" u) `# i6 |3 S& Ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 S2 P2 |0 G1 J  c" K9 aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; T6 Y# N7 V  Hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 O4 |' N& V! V" }  D# Mhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 i2 W- I8 g5 R# _) c7 V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 K8 Q$ @# D; W5 esales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 |$ k1 H3 x! n% a* O6 |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' W' m4 C& i5 l( N# cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 c# E8 X% f( _
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. z  a6 K( b( m. s  s2 G6 Fsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 ~' X, ?! \) H. Y' v# D) l4 t1 tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, z" y1 Q) E' E, X6 W% otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 Z' I$ h1 r* i- W: t" `- l# n; B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 t" j/ _: V% v# [; t0 T
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& d4 ]: X) p$ _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( j) }- u9 T+ @9 ]4 Y. j; P+ Yresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 U# K% h4 N. Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 [; o1 W* g/ G! rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  ]: r% y3 x: j; a0 J+ A; drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; \2 r  O# V1 |4 v, B/ t1 J
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 s5 e3 e$ G4 U8 u# @! I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# x0 M" a2 N9 I( X( h5 A8 E9 iAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ Q1 T+ N! f$ O! |2 u
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 I: ~* l" ^: R, h! ?! S% h# q+ x
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" Q% H( h& o# T4 Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even" r7 M- o6 b4 p# f
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& _: ], ]. e7 ?9 Z: q2 s! O
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. `" p. b! X. k& l$ u. m# Y: A" _
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 N1 E9 Z( W* w* iresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. U+ x# x3 A/ k: M; U6 F; fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  M, F: E5 `7 Q8 Y" mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’/ l8 O3 v6 ]! @* O
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  z9 e: e2 X% c: s
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" I8 W' P3 f. z" d! K& K6 f
leg down over 2009.
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/ p& @$ l' `$ A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# w, i4 H  t$ b! G. L
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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( X. z; ^# {5 m6 e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 U$ P. G% Q: T6 a: C4 [) h翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% f7 \1 G; s% N+ q+ T: qhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 d5 M% u. ^( L: {& k) I
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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