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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% }+ H+ p7 q6 U" |/ ^% p+ w9 o

6 Y. I: q) N) v' ]. }2 Q! vTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / w; C) _# S; I, Q( z$ A

, E3 Y) \& V0 IThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. + g2 {# D1 ~& [0 q

1 C; k) X, b$ {8 b9 W9 B; ~"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
, l# q' C! o3 ?
7 q( ~2 ?" l5 x4 m3 WNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
8 _! r. `0 q& y2 ~1 p$ G7 S  X1 J: X2 R& j- _
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
9 l( X! P5 S# I* F' [. _9 M9 t. H2 G( f3 [: _& T8 h/ j3 _8 ^/ m  `! p/ n
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
# _* r" p6 w; j# I7 m6 H: p8 Q
. q" X) @8 u7 c4 Q+ ~6 lTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
" G; i8 m) {  j6 x; A
* {" ~8 q( ~& k7 s, M' UMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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) x) [: z& U" }4 B) NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, h  O+ f. `' J: b! E% S( `$ r# ^7 J+ ]
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。5 p0 u9 F0 E& {' u  K8 O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。0 @; U' r! ~( K2 w! U5 u: d

$ G/ S5 I/ G2 v* @& f( ~[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
+ e  e0 X3 B* [' F5 P跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

7 m, A- ]0 V9 C4 \, c. C很多人都回学校深造去了5 B* I( Z+ n% i, [4 c3 Z
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ m% F9 [& w3 J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" y9 r# R" G2 C1 {; w. Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 Z6 r3 Y* L9 [/ x; |3 S; aare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 A- O) k+ S+ l( b3 @
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: T& F3 |) c  y" Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; V9 c/ f$ l! w; B  i" @from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! x% S. B- q- B; N8 hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ `) ^9 q& r, ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& }" N. T  Z/ f5 @- qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed  r$ U, d! ]6 d6 `) x, C  F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ z4 h( f+ c7 m" B, z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# i3 s3 m4 X0 b0 A9 M- Q* Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 E1 P7 s! s, j3 ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 w6 \$ j. Q2 Y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ t2 F6 ^6 b$ M& {, Z30,000 new households will form in the province during
- U4 Y: k% z% f) F5 z( k2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 _5 y/ l4 w" ~3 n; g& {8 p
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 Y: E0 }  _" F& U' Q9 vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: P' ]8 t4 a, T9 o& `; E
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 Q. k% ]; ?/ p: i" w2 \! L4 v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* \) P# G$ t! U: j8 jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: W# l: h5 J* P6 V$ f( r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ i7 q9 p, N4 k+ ?0 e
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) U7 k9 S6 O% i4 c* _' Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 e0 d% s+ u. l. {excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, S1 i. N2 R' T' n  q' h/ S
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& D" h6 B% b. Z( e8 J4 B
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 o; C& x5 v& R, Z5 Obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" v6 n8 G6 |' A% Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* e: G' g4 U2 E( O$ D) y
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 E" `8 ^" I- {6 u2 P/ Q& ?1 b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# P+ o$ {+ e1 \" Q$ H6 n
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 W9 w' B9 V* N4 K( N7 ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  s& w  ]* S0 i* C5 C+ \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" O' n" m' h  @) w! T6 N5 k- Rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ E+ X9 O$ I- s% O" trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& j  }: j8 ]3 s4 Y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 L5 j& R+ ^8 F6 X+ D
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' V; p9 s4 S" A9 H- w. o
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 `, y* l) C' ~  s  _! {! ^housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- E* ^2 ~" G# V1 d9 ^% P
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 V1 |, K5 B" ~$ z9 m6 a: ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ v9 x2 l- {& O) |& j+ pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
$ |9 K0 x, d3 s. f( Don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 s5 x3 x! i9 E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 U" S3 v# U1 dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
! ^( m7 `+ O' `1 J. X, F: Y7 R4 Zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 {, @: U# l$ w' }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ p# H" Y  t/ {, f
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 t% F& j# g* V3 i' z7 @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* c. g3 H1 ]3 Nleg down over 2009.1 s5 Q3 }; @. N9 U0 h
) E5 ]1 a6 C/ r% @! X5 H( f& y# T, |
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 K) r. F9 U) Q1 j" g4 ?- N  j. W
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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, [8 h1 j# A' {3 @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. d' h: u$ M# Z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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* M5 a. ^* v: e; k! \http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments% g7 K' s! `1 J" p3 t8 P1 N
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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