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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics., Q6 ]* T) K8 c0 C

4 i+ t3 S( C1 |TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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2 `# f+ n0 X3 \) l% ]8 m' H" N6 i  O& {The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 R' T* q" Z9 d" x

6 d- I+ u# R& d! q9 \"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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. d( z  {9 J) Q2 m$ z" @$ pTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000., S( y5 X; a' H! n4 x
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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, Z" w6 p0 z* B* z7 k' rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& ~$ h6 x9 a/ |% F1 J9 Q. u- K" Z5 x8 l

1 k% j$ a$ ?5 |6 ?' r8 {$ X: F7 XMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
. K2 k. U: w1 O( X% n 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。$ R7 f: ?' L/ r& t% V
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
+ \  ~& {. e: ^跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; R) e1 E0 \- p. [6 Y& b6 |很多人都回学校深造去了
7 E: Q1 y! [: K1 a嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( O/ p- a$ v' m' G7 L
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: `3 U+ {. H. I" ?6 F. F4 oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 V0 b$ t! W+ D9 M$ G9 i8 ^* J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' h1 ^) Q/ E. s- A6 \0 g2 h( l0 q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, V% |2 ~. |5 I6 m9 {6 j9 p
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; H8 d$ x) N# }, v2 y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: ?# _+ V6 J6 [9 ~  ]0 ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ N/ Y$ J  I. R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ J$ h$ {6 O' c& Z  i" Fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 c* K- G- Q3 B% @" c8 V* N9 B
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- C0 h. o1 a( j: T( _* C3 Fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 \6 ~6 i2 g0 \prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 k( w. [9 I4 c: j* J1 o9 S, {
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 B" c, }3 S  ~( D* x
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; k5 g' Z3 U* ]2 }4 w30,000 new households will form in the province during/ b; I) C5 g9 V, E
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 V9 g8 l" v+ S3 F+ IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" b& |; M( J9 H$ w) C+ |
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; q4 J: c3 h0 o5 \- Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 h5 p  ?: b: b. f9 |" khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 n; d5 C+ {  Z1 q3 w  [# Y( `
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 b, O* ]) K. U5 A) A! h: x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: r1 n/ M3 j/ n9 e( g6 P. y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! @3 O. `- ?. ]" ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, S* w2 J; h! Q% w# J( [% Fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 u8 E3 P4 l; u2 ]! o, f
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 s2 R4 H& C. R# K% h* Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ W7 H; P4 Q! s4 cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 z$ M9 R, L9 ~, V: ?3 D' ^% N
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: ~' N" W# p$ G5 x/ W, N2 K
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 \. W% F) Y; x( V: a  \
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" k9 G: J& R/ a0 H# Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% {  N( M( p, l. t5 p) u! Vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- u/ |& V6 Z  |  T6 t0 lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 E' l6 z/ D7 v( j; A/ B9 Z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# G/ e/ `2 S# ~4 arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' f( {5 j: z& S0 X7 q4 BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ ~; I; d9 u$ T9 K- k, a$ a7 iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; U; f- p7 E) h! ]' C: N8 IAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan1 G7 C, G& D4 w8 l3 I
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: y. N* a0 P. D* c9 T  s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 F2 X) Q! D8 Q. ]( w2 u0 U0 q+ X- E* O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' G. w7 C' J# Lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 e, [& f) G5 D* ~" [3 aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." q+ F, L; T! C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. K) y; D; U2 R5 V1 M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( K$ p% k$ |, x! r' D  h# n, [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 q5 P4 n5 r1 O1 H% Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’/ j$ H' r+ y4 k4 h
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ E& d7 S# Y$ P6 b
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- y9 u1 K  P  l3 ?; c/ D4 q) J
leg down over 2009.
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4 ]' \# n4 T- J" l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ s* D8 c0 o  f& vAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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* H( e# K# |, H% {+ k# t1 I! v1 w2 F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
4 D& q) a3 l; \+ C翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 v# g  _0 I; F% f  \
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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6 [7 W) H9 ]" j9 p3 C5 j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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