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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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) H' }+ ?6 i4 m* QThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 8 A% k3 a, |- m3 S/ \

' G; O" t, h7 ^"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.! \& X9 p4 ^8 f/ z$ P0 G. M8 V) }
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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6 b! u2 a4 r2 H$ c! A7 r) v"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.5 ^* t% }, W" n

( V5 T4 w% p  O7 y% W" R! A) G8 m6 NMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. H1 o, k  f( W: q5 E

/ l6 V3 A' v, L5 y3 c3 b[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。! e! Y( M2 |6 M9 K
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  J  ~5 R+ E* _; ^8 s
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % D3 m! T  I; m
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了0 T+ @6 h8 U# t8 @* \0 w& ?% C; w) w" F
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 n) s4 L5 S5 k/ h3 oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 |2 y0 G3 j8 R1 xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  J$ t6 Z" \0 ?& D* L6 W
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 Y. O& S' E8 P% R* L) Z( h. u
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( D+ B1 ~5 f, S: A/ v; Y; sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 D% r/ c% k+ Z. H: [& Afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' |7 o& q+ B3 A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ k4 r( j5 f& s9 `% pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ f& a9 t( L0 N' q( a! x1 X
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 P: Y; O0 A; H* w# d' lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, O# X& G! t( e' u2 lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& U8 w' O4 }6 q# Hprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 H& T- {$ P. U- m0 k+ F; Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% ], K' I. C/ u
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 s' }+ P; W% z30,000 new households will form in the province during$ n2 F. m$ r. U  A* ~
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& b+ m8 s* V3 W
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 g: S$ M, f4 x8 i, ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( B( W& I0 w0 X% uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 F6 A) H- O% q* P8 I/ u* X7 c
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 w, c2 \, x( N9 ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
  e6 U* t& I: |" j# m+ fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# [& F- f% G5 d2 O2 s' }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 T4 I+ G, I5 [; h! t- Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) }% Y  h* I3 M2 I. E" a! ]$ P1 Oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 l4 L! g0 e6 ^: d3 f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 m' A# x; i0 s- S+ Z. J. Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ A( y5 K1 w5 M% M1 Z4 C& y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ u2 k4 l$ f, V' ?, E/ ~& n! X
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 e# ]- c' Q" dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! Y) b& P. W* u- x8 \* C  }
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! k+ }: g3 y) b- C7 K( S1 c
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 t3 z3 K$ I- f# ?9 e+ }
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" }; |: u) N/ N; U+ q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% d, J* U" c8 ]: T: L+ G* kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled, t0 l( i: M: p9 j8 c$ x2 Z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 o& P" _9 H) f. |) q# GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ C6 ]; ^( U3 R# z  g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ s! v2 d2 T" d" ~& }& B1 e1 H) vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan1 q( O3 U4 N, O- H/ k& {/ g; U; _% F
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- a. ]" P* r9 G* ?relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 v7 z% i" S& k, Q& A
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: {$ ]( {5 P. Q% q: T, X
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 y& |/ G3 D/ j" Z7 j6 zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( n; ?( l" d# M. S) CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; P/ r8 ?3 e8 Y: c; T% S4 V% yresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 u& e6 ]5 f* C3 S' l
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 \  c% o! o$ H& a9 I% M2 {. r, W
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" f  _0 w: r/ Q: K+ S- M% t9 X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) W& Y/ w/ x( x2 y/ M" jAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; w) ^9 }  h3 _& R+ }
leg down over 2009.
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  r/ K+ [, A  s4 T* W; d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& E+ u9 @+ d: m0 F$ k. p* d' y5 `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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  [! `0 ?5 _2 T- K9 K# Y+ k$ J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) \. ^2 ~! T# T
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 A) v. U2 W1 c4 v* u
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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