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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 z4 P- r- Q2 q3 m3 \
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 |4 y2 Y" ~7 `) W+ y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 l+ o1 i: }" S, b! C: rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ O0 M: p! H) X% ?
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 G8 K6 M, W) _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. K5 o" A- e1 k. W: _' x7 rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* y. V, R9 ~7 N8 i+ F2 J' bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& J; Q. y W* M. s3 I6 P! G; jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 J4 R6 W% {6 M3 b H, U% G5 f5 i8 n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ B I8 G( y8 |; f1 g, A/ bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 g! \# \2 w! C5 C) k5 zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ g0 q1 X' x$ O7 o8 E6 G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& o( }7 A1 W! R7 w5 u8 H; E
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
& W1 Y, Z1 _& F$ N2 k, Uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 N0 W& b2 W) |1 w- K
30,000 new households will form in the province during. ~2 z, L* n( o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 {+ I( H3 @1 iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 a6 ]1 X( b( t9 rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' P- t. b3 g' d4 {. J5 Z0 z& c8 dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta" ~% i+ I$ K1 x& E1 j! x
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 m, @! Y; d. W( [
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 _' @+ q' a# Z6 N: c8 _% b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 @ [* B! s* t0 Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 S0 U/ m! k1 t7 ?" i7 N+ s6 Nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 {+ S/ O+ c3 s, W, d4 ^5 |
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ B4 c! b/ K& Q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ p( a: A/ }! v D2 X" F' A' qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ i6 _6 u' ?, r0 u f
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 h" L' z+ O. S! f& X4 r' ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* ~- W' v/ Y; Aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ c$ Z0 m; p; b' P( M" Gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* C; c+ t0 Y$ Q+ _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ q# F8 A4 r; rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 w$ |5 @) C% u, Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% J5 V7 X9 L6 X
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. m, j: I3 k2 }8 j) k v: H' ~, Krapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." d0 f% w. [0 C2 b i+ @) W
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! T& n$ ^ i8 T
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: Q9 }1 t4 r: r; Q: x
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan- i% c7 x# l3 ]3 ~( A) P
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- l# n$ ]5 p2 q) k, Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# p* q/ Y. z g8 s, e _! K4 d8 P
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
G) X8 q1 O: g: othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 }1 i3 { \- p1 z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., B* j7 D. U& C) C" |
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 L. u: E* G) ~6 V+ [' ]+ F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 Z6 d7 V7 ?$ oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 G4 q! ?- {1 P) i3 mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. m/ x: c$ q2 \6 d) s' bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 O9 |$ O' @; ^& I+ ^$ f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! T4 m0 x0 a' p5 ` @
leg down over 2009.* L( L) h6 _- Y
9 K. y7 L$ l2 i/ ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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