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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta( \; a' N$ f0 O; H" b- \, W
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- d% F5 d; ?( S/ u/ D' vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 J, g3 l+ q1 @0 h
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to P6 v! o0 P+ Z# `8 y* g) @. s$ x
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
d/ ?. {1 A ^6 Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& b7 i) i5 X% y3 i( ~
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( X$ p |; T/ x% M+ q/ Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, o+ j, A8 |( r+ R$ `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 s, p6 t7 l6 ?7 Y0 h3 D% B
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ [9 q4 t Z; T% v8 Q* {) t1 ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( X4 s' n5 V2 K3 A: K# ]" P k$ K4 Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- s+ B# T# \% H
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: K, h) T4 e/ d2 ?* Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
p6 S) n7 s# ~8 J, H. xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 t" v) X, G6 w g8 P
30,000 new households will form in the province during, g" k# j8 o U5 x3 P' Z( W
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 V f; `2 k/ H G3 `3 W8 k N2 S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- a7 k E, v( T" `# g( x, I+ w4 J
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 A+ F) m9 f6 X6 O# n' o" Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' o$ f- l; `! _3 }/ Q3 d fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* F4 d0 X9 _7 H ~0 n+ \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 W) n, a* q5 s. hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' `; k" e7 g; k, {! h
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ x8 Y$ G& H! c) J
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 U6 v. P+ m1 e4 Q# u
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# s% K$ y. W; Y0 @* s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& i# d: p) o. E( r) f8 H: S7 v- isales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 w) c$ m7 Q( j* t4 Q, E* h7 Ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
m; |/ U% J# x' F7 Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
' G% b6 }" l- N/ G! uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' o" S) U, q- G- ~$ Y7 K/ L6 C
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) W/ P1 p& A5 z! C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 Q0 z1 C9 k" P2 x: N @/ lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* W! X+ o L% {" S$ S
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories, x; `/ h9 a- A" P3 @, [! ?; x
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 f3 G5 T% v* q/ z! j; |6 c& Krapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- a' I0 y4 L1 x
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s I( M$ j# \' r& C, J6 j
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
X/ E1 X( ~3 C6 W- }- qAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan$ o, X" h4 n# n8 {
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ N- _! _" x4 g3 a" \relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 N* L3 c, ]2 W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" V, @; Z3 x6 A/ U9 Jthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( O# ?! o* r6 eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( f) U# x3 ~/ e3 b j1 n; n
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ c) q1 z! z. {5 [resale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 I2 V4 c. V, [& Z# }exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- p; P; V$ x. C! nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 c- s" Z" H# ]+ m% O' j$ Hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 U+ ?/ ~5 H0 {/ r) t! |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
j" ^& j3 X1 x+ z) p/ f2 eleg down over 2009.5 O* I0 k$ ~/ i+ y
" M) Z# r4 V! @* d- W4 K5 L
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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