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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% S  t# s$ z2 ], Y
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
# i8 K2 T  `* b( @2 s+ }7 f
4 t, g+ y& E3 i, Q) C2 J6 QThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. - L$ Z  H+ x9 u& u
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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% K/ Z* u7 I) _9 ~' pNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.9 \7 u# H3 l) _! D5 U/ ~* b
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
1 a1 Z. _) \; N% n- f! ~# c" p
; l% g% Z4 E" U3 Y/ m( q8 PTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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& N. w- F8 j" ?( W. uMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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0 H0 G: P% l3 o- ^' }% |" Q[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 K/ i9 ?, T$ _4 M7 B, T' S 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; c1 W1 Z( f& P) r
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 5 b4 _' ?4 L8 Q! L& R. X8 R8 X; |5 V
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

" l4 w" m: _# [0 k' p% o很多人都回学校深造去了
6 Y% n$ {" K) m- R嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" o! {, L( _6 v! e$ l: vWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 P4 i* X, Y' Z) r9 S0 |& Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, ^: Z, t7 m% k* Y6 H) tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ i7 e( k7 _) c9 _2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 u0 k7 L2 `2 a2 U8 Z; \. W1 _/ {formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; e! d1 S* J3 K# @2 Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,3 w! a- J  r9 I6 _
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 n. ]  }. u9 Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous* Q6 T; F+ N" w" B
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ e# E9 T5 K( |6 D, G5 e5 ^" wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! U' L" |  d9 `3 O5 H6 _* f  h
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 Y0 [% O, x3 u, s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ C  k% C# Y- E- |& C
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% X9 z3 D7 _& l9 }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 A( D0 r: x% H  G( P/ E% @( t4 `30,000 new households will form in the province during$ J* ^9 [: c2 }+ F# U8 {9 }, D2 m' Y" ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 t" C! B& q6 g. }Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; A9 h7 I3 B" y/ W$ [4 whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
" ~8 F& {7 u: R' H$ aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& s5 C' s" d9 x2 C! Y; Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; ~) A0 X* }; t
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ ~1 Z  [: T0 T- `& [during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& w( m* k7 J9 Z! ]7 o1 \; y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& d# }1 {% ~3 c( b4 X
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" K; s/ e; e9 V4 E0 L, v1 hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" u6 ]" n' @6 H6 G' S# M' C$ n" E( z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; _: @  L9 f( h: ?* W  Zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& F8 S2 \" \" q+ N! `
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 n! S( E; J+ a  u+ ]
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! @- h: s5 Y0 q5 h0 W; ]
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( A+ ~1 I* z8 @5 `- L( K6 M' `
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, N4 M- W* v3 yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the  k. Q" e: k4 E+ J5 o  c
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ W2 `' q4 V7 v7 [
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 y7 e7 |% V4 Y3 n& ~' Z" i) Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. E/ e" |' j% U$ J- Wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 [0 a( q. i9 b) w" E) K( AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 v$ F/ h" Y! _9 W- I7 ?& ^
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ N+ W! z: \# R
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan, {4 w$ o2 Q; g3 @9 R9 Y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( w6 @$ i2 K8 c  i6 h0 Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: Y4 o& M/ x/ S9 |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  W( }9 w$ o, }+ ?8 kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 [) y( W! _% }1 X9 Y& Aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.  h5 P% k; [5 O  q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 @! x! o% H3 N# P$ bresale price in February is evidence that past prices. s# G6 u3 i! H4 r: s4 x
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& q" ]! |* y% h0 `homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& O+ P' ^( A$ t) G- o& ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 K) R5 E& i7 T" L0 C* R" q$ ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, M# @% \' g4 E, o$ e: Q2 u
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: c& D6 l6 C8 u9 o% PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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0 v' S- E1 I  \% |% v  b  X2 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; D4 p2 U- f1 |6 Q/ b9 R
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% l' G- `8 q. X- i+ Fhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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3 O3 x. Z& I4 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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