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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.$ O/ z" g/ k3 V0 R
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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1 R; |) y+ z5 P7 d% l  ^The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. $ Q8 k3 `* T# @! r  f0 X
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 _+ \4 `& ^9 y

. `+ l& {: q: {' R& V7 O* fNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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6 Z$ ^2 d6 m- i) {TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 7 X: O! z' \1 I# b1 c- u3 P! b

3 [% N: z, T1 E2 j& i5 Hhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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- I; P6 y. q' k' X) ?% mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% a/ S0 L+ B  ]8 o2 W- S
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。* s6 Q/ ?. S, |, n
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( R0 M8 _$ R" G: C6 n7 s! ?

; a/ Z0 ]7 _" d4 m/ k[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 Q0 O4 n0 z* W5 r' H' D9 D
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
) _, n7 w6 F0 ?3 t5 @嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
! }7 S( U0 \* k$ ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) g' c+ N: J# U. i8 |8 @* B
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 U, ^  u9 W0 T( v7 n7 }6 Q2 Y+ Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
9 e) `2 f5 U+ A; |& W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# C2 v1 o- t" G6 ?5 ?1 ^, h* Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 ]/ q' O- K4 S4 q* ~7 K: P. cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% {' l8 Y: g- H6 Sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; Y. V8 w1 v4 t6 J- a4 ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 o) o, E' Q& D$ Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 H* \. [+ l: s& K/ {/ w; vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ d& D) M6 z) I0 T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. ]9 b$ d/ S9 o6 m+ q5 U$ M1 N$ F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- T! s) @5 b6 `  u2 gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* L* ?! p. X; f( \# q7 x! u' ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. z4 l' h- m! P% u3 i+ \  N  U" n) I30,000 new households will form in the province during
& N  s# {/ L' b3 i( }' L2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 F+ {# {" l. B4 y9 pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 D5 M+ L& }. p+ B
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& ^2 }4 {7 V9 E" P( w! S. V1 ~: W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( H' W: {  Z3 y1 P3 \% e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 w3 v1 Y4 S* L; y- |! ^households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. o' f; I3 O6 f5 B; f# t, Uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ ~. u, l0 o, w
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% V) }  z; N7 W* aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& v) B& n" u6 P5 i% Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# n7 l( Z% D& n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& e4 h7 E* V, D( {! Y0 Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive% |8 U" U5 b6 G5 U% }  h& V# j" B
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 z9 }. t9 R: L2 t4 ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: z; j  Q/ X4 E0 u8 ^3 Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) `3 X4 [; I+ d$ k  _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' }% O4 Q* F) ]) z7 C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 l2 R1 R1 |; @
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 {' J- Y# u5 j
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& ]0 g4 c4 A  d  j. q% }; V) gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ e4 ^# j6 Y7 b3 k6 Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& d3 T. ^- J& ^6 T. s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ e. B* g+ ^- }' X, D, p3 z$ uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! {3 H" u8 S" y9 [3 c6 F3 x5 ?! lAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 I, f' Z7 x, \4 H  b, Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: I* _; g4 m/ drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- ]+ R  w2 @. @; T3 X  m; V
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 r( e. N# Z( P1 T8 I/ L
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& @) ]! h3 k/ Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. v, _7 H! k2 @5 zThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ W* U/ X, }3 ^7 S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 ]' L% T! Q' P  |0 iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove2 _1 L8 x2 @, {! i* Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# [7 P, C# A* n
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ c& H, _0 i! m$ W4 }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  U& _. ]% z1 Q/ t. I& J$ T( R
leg down over 2009.
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* n. ^2 m5 w5 T8 ]( S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 f0 z" m0 Z# f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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* \( ^* O7 H8 m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 v1 u' R9 t9 m8 c) T! B翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子8 i8 ^; d: F0 g- V
$ b3 m3 g: S  T) Q9 m. w
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ j0 F# B# b1 a7 k% m  Y

1 y7 F. r4 v6 H$ \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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