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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
) {( O/ ?; h% k! N- J" ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) x0 Y* L# U J" o# Y, [; r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( Y) z8 Y6 L, l- w% Care cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 y4 u+ | l8 x. \! ]8 _, A
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) L: v; Q# d3 y- F( H! W7 e$ @' B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% ~/ i- ]" T; X% Q+ U1 N" ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 w3 J& Q# m4 i# i- S" othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& v2 S" S$ G7 ~- j: t
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ w$ a3 m% K, ]% y4 l
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, I' b& _& e$ i2 [( z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, w& K' i4 V' f, Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& Y' m7 h" e7 I1 k: [6 S) H- J, H
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ y$ R/ Z& E" a/ z2 [+ s$ A
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 m, S7 M- Y0 j$ l) g0 k8 t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
? k, l! s. \+ w, U8 i30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 C$ T: H5 z! ]2 v# [6 f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 d8 o! d3 n- n" f/ _7 _0 V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: B/ [) k$ {7 H$ \. P' T) F+ P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 J# W9 i( i6 j# bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 e$ ]7 q# G+ E7 Uhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 G J7 O6 m2 S$ D, ^2 a0 }
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% N9 v: _6 B6 z7 s/ o% _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ T0 _3 a9 W v5 M8 f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& b. a- N* I7 J- F- S/ @4 @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 w" K: `8 [# wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of v8 R/ v% [9 Q$ e3 p/ V0 K- x$ ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 o9 O [- x% E1 x( I- B: Ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ @0 o) B/ X, j
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: j$ E: Y5 J. b$ Z, Ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 y g) O" x* ?6 p( ]
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' G' F( q; [& [6 n* i2 G% t5 M Aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- _" h l9 J! J4 W4 @3 j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
3 Q# n' O+ H% @9 U) Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 ^# k" T" E0 a& E$ Y+ hmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 u- n6 d K% e$ J8 i8 ^# kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! M7 G9 A9 ?4 \* M% ?$ v$ n$ x7 @rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# v2 L- q+ u3 K% u& A, ]; z9 IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, f" d& s7 F; I& r4 P6 M4 \boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ g( W: C6 s* ^2 S8 o2 ?/ G5 J: Y& Q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! g8 n& s2 F+ ~% uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 J; k3 L% _1 D- d* d* }% crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# F& y9 W8 h' K0 Q& A T
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
) N/ g0 W9 {( E( H6 T# m+ a5 Cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ r8 Z7 d" F7 F6 r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ {( m _5 \ Z) E/ AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% G7 O$ X. R" b m4 c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 B6 r4 H$ x2 P4 x: v/ cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' U! \- t2 j0 Y( w) n% ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 w i" Y9 X) s; C( I! f
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 z1 L1 A( A8 M' @Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" d( M$ w- ?7 M$ D+ `) _" x- e5 D
leg down over 2009.
^0 z9 x" o' W6 I* Z' W. J* l# R6 _$ D- f5 L( j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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