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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.' |5 i) I  g- h
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
( S! g& w6 q, o+ w( ~
! b2 e. ?9 F& A3 \( j* L% UThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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. }; K% y: n2 D! p" C2 hNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' _9 U* T3 J: J( b, N3 p
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( L3 F" y, r+ ~9 t' Y7 ]

) s0 Q$ U7 }/ Z"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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/ o! V1 Y# q. B- H# sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% \9 w+ k$ C  {: S% j3 l
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , h; D) U- `) c, b; z2 K. p

0 A! G1 V& S. |) chttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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5 x6 t, d" y* ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
# D  E0 f" v+ Q8 j# T) P 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。) P5 l% L# G- }7 E8 m/ s. F

: d% ^5 Z) r' [% R$ ?# ?[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
5 j1 F' r' W) h' M% O9 F6 X& T跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

' F: q8 s- d$ [很多人都回学校深造去了
$ R$ ]$ Y* E3 b; i' o嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
6 M; p+ ^' ^2 ~- Z# GWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" T$ j8 D6 c* I# `+ i0 ?boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) A3 s( w: C% u; e+ |
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' }0 `5 v5 e# x7 U: @2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) O) i9 }' x+ c: O' w
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( n# X( \# D7 U: j2 B+ `from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- O& ~- [& a& m- S) [) e/ V- Fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 _8 m+ J% v9 f& x& U1 T
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. h' a; u7 w" R( I) z' F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: X/ A2 z) B/ _  L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 ?! s4 |8 d( c& J
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: ?( p. f" X0 ]) ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 P% C1 }; ]# c4 q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: V' o) B7 Y) P2 Ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 e5 Q; v4 F( W- Z; i1 o30,000 new households will form in the province during
# Y$ C+ H) _2 C; F/ h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 b$ V- d, \3 s# u2 J% m6 q# XEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; O( O2 o6 S" A2 d9 jhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 N  o  H8 ?, r3 e0 tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 E2 j8 ?9 z1 I' r, u" xhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- W) K+ R" t( I9 ^
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: o' j, I; ]0 F- j( s$ b! S) b0 I
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 B4 {' K& j# }' l; B& ]- a
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# ?% t$ s7 ]" U, _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) l& W5 ]# W# t5 l1 D. |
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ x  l/ O2 |- V1 ]8 G/ l/ {( n
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( u9 W# V- g& J) x. d( M9 d9 w6 T
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) c- s. Y7 ~! b4 i+ M
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 F0 D! y3 f4 D& Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, Z6 q' L7 v0 P0 z  hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. x+ R0 F7 J+ e5 o9 @- Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest. c, c4 b: {5 d! y; r4 X
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, u& q6 t7 q# u1 `
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 Z1 g3 ~1 Z3 {2 |. s2 C1 c' t& o' umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% U9 w1 ?2 U$ qof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( f% K( M- f4 q5 h; n, h5 ^% b, T7 y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% b" o1 K, L# m- ]* b
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 \+ K" |6 I. ~1 _+ U  |) p- s6 P2 Kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., }) [( ^6 u5 Y+ H9 e
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( H$ Q$ i3 w4 xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: a0 h6 L7 I: ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, O. B! n; O; h$ J7 P8 U3 i. Tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even' r& r( O7 p4 m2 F2 J6 p! Z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. \! Y1 N3 S7 h# H* P5 u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; l' k* X8 L5 sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- N# [1 c6 r: Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 c7 }0 L# E# {0 G, q% A; Z$ i; p
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 n" n( m2 ~" j) ?9 C' l& C
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 Z2 v) K* ~& g; K) ]deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 X) e6 j$ g# M# sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% A8 k3 D, Z2 o* r4 A! O5 T3 ^leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 X; _3 K% T0 J; sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ ?7 V0 L+ u* b9 a% c( ]
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments6 Q; y& z% J- y, ~; p  o5 `
$ s8 S2 p6 W3 w! W  y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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