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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- W0 t9 Y1 Z: Q1 y% N+ o
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) V2 u* K+ T" t4 G' S! E u) ^* G
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& `! v2 t: \! Q$ Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 d% D7 w- ^! Q1 f0 X3 ?; A) O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( b; x( O( _6 L/ ~! T- @formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 I& k" E; b* e6 k! \1 ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 u |: l& n: ]+ A1 M" E- B0 K) d' F# ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& p$ r) {2 |3 N3 t3 ~( \/ S g& [7 Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous" L' ]# p$ d2 h0 z( S% }* Z5 I+ K
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. c& ]' o( W/ G8 B
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 s& x# G5 X* M7 b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 K! F' w) l4 b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 t; R; |$ q% ?5 ~, S f6 Y. _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 b* b/ r0 R- A! e2 R9 P. ahomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! f5 P6 b& M+ n% V
30,000 new households will form in the province during
`# ]$ ~0 u+ e. u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ \' j& e+ C$ T9 _/ ]) s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 V4 V" S/ w% m% Fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: T* d/ r+ A9 [( H9 J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: F( i6 n6 M* ] f( X" G' y, \) uhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 Q7 i# E7 ~+ r# y# E) H* @$ ~8 V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) B r, Q& V; {/ V; N, e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& g1 \4 j; h f1 ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 _( m# z* U% _+ m/ t" \- Jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ N; b, a/ M6 Q3 a0 U7 cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 M& i C+ \; X) ?: _& v
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ x% E& A/ H9 Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% f& `" A! i5 u/ W# ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ n! l$ j7 `7 Z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in' G7 n& q! }% E& x0 N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) D/ v. s" T; P( `6 a" `1 eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( l: e! t+ b3 M3 l- o3 G' L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! f5 L, \" z8 [4 b7 @1 c
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 Y! Q' C) Z/ p r& Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( k" Q$ I& D9 \+ l( y0 ]+ _
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 U4 X1 {% {/ O2 \' urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 j. ~; }: h' BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) o1 T6 l6 e9 y, m# `5 U4 p
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) s( r* B, x- p! f; o0 |3 M' t* m
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan: m+ [- \# y6 P! x' ?0 i3 J
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 j6 k" U9 m8 H) V) qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* i+ y. B( |9 p @# h5 _" d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. y, k" H( }+ `: p0 F3 L( ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, m! S3 X/ E" T$ o/ r1 A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 c6 S6 X" {1 o* aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, i- [* ~+ N/ }( ^% w2 ]. cresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 ?' |. s, N; R5 o
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# z/ Y, Q# q6 [9 F/ Z$ |homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" H) r5 N% q% C; w) Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," b* Z) ` ]' D! K' A* N; h5 @5 U
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# R) k8 f. g; J5 o) Uleg down over 2009.
& I. h4 h4 K' M4 j
; C0 H# }0 q1 V* j" S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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