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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.1 C) h7 D/ ?/ f3 l2 e. [( ^' I
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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. L) z# q( ]% u4 y; _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. + `7 U9 |/ q6 C' [7 }

5 f2 Y# S9 f% _Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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6 J, L8 S8 W5 c! qTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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, @0 `. W, f6 N8 [7 }- h"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,9 F' x! b: \: }0 M1 J7 ]

/ P( }% {- r2 E- O, s% L: d! w2 G4 k[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 o$ \# x% o$ Y# U" k" u8 I 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ E0 v% i& y; N( z1 _# V
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / B/ I4 S- X% ^! q$ X
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

$ o1 W$ {# k1 X2 s7 d0 n很多人都回学校深造去了- i: H, T8 d$ E. @; o& w  M
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
9 L. z5 ~' E" |' O3 ^" EWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ a" e6 j: p" b! C; L2 O7 f1 H
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( Z7 P" ?9 @" {. x6 @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 E1 ^7 k+ J# i  u- h2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 Z# {' R. H1 c
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! D' n9 ~  I* g/ R! ]; @% r1 w0 H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! p2 B- V& j) i8 O8 J( u4 l1 q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  ?( w) M( N) f, b3 ~, Vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
  }: n) {( K" h: ?( X, |pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# _1 E# U5 B7 l
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) w9 W' y9 S) j+ P) vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& G, h( |& k$ k& o# S
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ P" |- B3 j+ A& v
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 I& d$ q# e/ e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 t" [; d; ^. w* w. o
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 |" G0 C3 P( i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& p, e0 \1 }8 g* c7 EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. X8 s& S$ i& Y( d0 ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 \2 C$ j; D2 g& oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# }7 y- W5 r. z. k, Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: ]( T4 i+ V6 E$ |/ N* j& S
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* z* M" O9 I# w, K# fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# u0 ^8 ~# @  D0 X6 O8 t( Ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 m# n/ f* [% F0 M7 |1 M; k3 s6 W
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- U, e% m  A1 l/ r$ Z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% ~# e, V7 S3 N
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, u/ {% I7 l% p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( P' b4 k/ ~7 J  K9 ]+ }buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# i) {9 p6 l2 a/ M6 @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# K' q5 S6 z2 T  G
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ j+ p4 l2 E: O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 O, k* B8 C: G. z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 u8 ]# w# T2 W0 o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 \3 i. f+ m3 S0 z5 e# W3 Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( L: i& h* Z' I1 |8 n. A
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- ?9 D. }) ?2 q$ `rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 p2 p# K% t1 |: f2 Y5 ?6 QThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 I+ y) x0 E" j: W% Q+ \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 k6 Q+ u1 f' d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan6 Z! g' Q5 O8 [# I2 J
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ S3 P9 [9 b; I3 X
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 E, w; s) J# h$ lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 f$ ]7 M0 o( P' {8 H
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" c7 i) \: d8 `; l# @$ c' m
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., U! }# W% j# g+ f
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# z* ?2 r5 t- m" c1 X! ^" Q# v) bresale price in February is evidence that past prices
) N( d* `- Z. \" Jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove2 h  v' P" V; x6 V. d( y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( j  W3 u0 T( _6 gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! g" j; `% D5 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 U; [/ H0 d0 j3 m! u1 ~3 Uleg down over 2009.: v9 e$ D( |# i+ g
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' O$ O; N5 V2 u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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$ W& o2 g8 K4 w- S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" k! H8 f, W# f! b  Z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* P7 U3 S  Q: U2 y& Z+ M" `
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! x1 V  T- J6 g* P, I$ z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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