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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.   L' ~6 F& l6 i7 j( F( M8 o
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 9 Y9 D8 _* Z5 w) k# o& b- P
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.6 z% n7 Z9 Y* }9 J2 l

/ e8 y/ u9 S- e"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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$ |& {9 ~3 K$ A! ~: VMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. : c5 M6 b! ~+ Y) T9 z

5 V3 z$ P7 d  d2 s$ o  p5 o( K8 B8 C; Zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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  X* k2 L( ^' Y  ~' a7 {TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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2 y- n: {9 e$ y: K2 X: d- \[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
$ I/ S. t6 |# S+ D 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# n& ~: e, ?. u2 E( [% s' w跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
* n# [% I3 R% _- [; y) n嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
3 n. t, r2 `$ D* U  J  J6 d1 c% CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 L) t% V7 L1 W
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! s, B; n3 \( P: b) x
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& t2 y3 @, p/ P- g2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 u2 b9 _- U* a3 Y4 t& p
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% j' b) @  i, |& v: P# e- I' n$ Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. K0 a; G# Z; ]/ c! X/ Uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( |7 U  N/ m3 }8 w5 [- Z- emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ v9 Q  U; R. ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 R2 g2 Z9 S8 Y3 h  n& Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, u1 P: B" K% P) Q  O0 l8 c/ }* |to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 u$ O$ d& S7 |! }$ ?
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  N! r# Q( b$ M) z# t7 [year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ Q' ]+ N2 B0 x% Jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; g- R/ K, u) K- m30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 S9 I* [0 D" J- J+ S2 Q$ d+ Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 E. K, M1 b3 K0 \( vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 D/ O: T/ q, K/ D  V* S: y3 e( rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  I% d) N5 `  H1 ]$ i- R
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 P$ L! K/ P$ ~4 |  M( X1 V8 m
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 q' O% g- ~- n7 @9 A& _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 _8 k* I- ?* q( H; y8 }: T
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 u1 S4 f: O. @
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ z' T3 H6 E- ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 }# d( r9 n: T0 V( T5 K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. ^5 O2 [* q8 T8 u  g& m: `
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 `4 \' |4 `6 o1 c- ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 ^( \+ O- Q5 p
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 e9 w3 H. _* O. t5 w* C* Z) Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 h3 ?9 P+ M$ g3 o& y1 Funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; t$ p: T: s0 A3 C% ^. ~' ^unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- E: \% T+ Y& k5 S# _
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( C" [+ g7 p3 k# ^( n: s: N6 ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 w9 P; B( h2 }6 C
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 @! c% \/ S* \' C2 Eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 A, P" v! Z) v+ r
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; F# c0 J/ }  S
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. w) y- t- s6 \* _; @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# p' i7 H* z! R  L4 }3 K- O- q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 m7 _8 e* D, H5 [: l# e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ K9 U7 w( ~9 S( @, m9 P) P; S
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' i+ \( F) z* R& U7 L$ ]9 D: I- ]) m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 ]" k- _% V2 L% }5 z3 c* T4 M
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 G4 C# ?7 ]8 H: {; R4 c
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ g4 x1 P$ i9 p2 I* tThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' k% d& I3 N" S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& h) M- J' w' D3 W% \/ ~; Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 A) d5 {7 I6 U- Q2 _
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ Z2 U6 |+ s5 |+ _3 i
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 C. D* |( w" C6 e$ C: d' c1 G' }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ \7 ^/ Y& o3 Z8 Z' V0 E. N
leg down over 2009.- u! [( C. t7 c  h7 Z; \

* d' w8 _/ S& C2 P" [+ \1 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* Z$ Z5 R7 C) q6 q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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5 F5 E3 z" t, p4 C# K5 s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' D+ |) _# m  F1 \) \
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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/ S; H- s4 O1 Phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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" a6 j' s5 d* Y7 b/ M, k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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