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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta: z: i4 ^' r/ s' X! u& h R0 b
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 N1 |! ?- m. h0 o! n- F: Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
]% Q! h2 c* b1 O+ x! }. Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. o2 ^1 O% d5 z ~8 u8 z7 Y% ^. W2 X; @2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ t6 _+ H& B. q" w0 w2 J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- S6 q" y2 D9 g# b" y+ n+ i1 ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 L' v) v, P) uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 F. W1 Y& v1 i, }& Kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous! V" w& y5 z% q- E- U$ c7 L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed e" E( y) }. w4 F6 Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 X* S1 x, h) w2 y, d# W! L0 v7 ?to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ f/ z' g: G6 S0 s1 h0 W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 A( h5 G' ~+ n" Lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: s3 a4 {% |2 j2 y9 Q- |homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; t p% ~: K' U3 l30,000 new households will form in the province during! d( G" M* M; J) |; O1 r |8 N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year." | B! o6 L2 A* T" p* a6 E7 A
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& g1 N& x+ A* D! M& f4 c M# @
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) r' t+ D& j: c0 K9 f: `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! c4 L, ]3 s6 c n% S" u
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# |2 [& ?" R$ S
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- n" _5 Q& H9 U4 Y% i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ l# B: K0 K. K0 f+ [
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* z$ L1 T( Y6 k& v$ |
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
}/ ~$ G. W' ^; eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; C, h# R, w+ b1 k% h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: l4 J8 ^8 b% g% l4 \! Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 F- h6 Z( y3 o' U! |% v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( L9 y9 Q" Y( K8 ?two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in' w$ D# }& n# a% i# z) ]
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 z) b- `9 j6 e5 }- G Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ N0 k% Q+ h" Q9 H% drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ x/ e5 z: ]& s* `
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' ?3 ?4 a3 B" {3 r2 }% x0 Omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, `1 F7 A" |+ T. x2 n# U' Aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' ?( y: X, s& w+ M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; E8 n$ b$ v l) DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( y) Z$ d+ ]/ I# k" z9 t0 t
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 X+ h! I9 z3 y$ A$ i' aAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
, Z1 B5 L5 N7 y/ d9 P2 Ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! j% q* q1 `& T, z) S2 F1 H1 lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& a/ @! p! g5 G2 |1 iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 T6 e0 X9 }. N6 a* J$ z9 Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( m+ v# m2 L, x5 n3 y5 ^6 I& mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( H" `6 C. a1 l' c7 P. T+ P9 S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 B& g0 D: O- l3 r' V% A! B4 Gresale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 W: {5 f1 y5 J/ \1 }exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( i7 T7 H6 P6 ?/ @: s1 lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( H3 `3 @0 u* [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# R+ c& C n0 q6 OAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( T2 f7 M) j6 D4 @3 T+ e* Qleg down over 2009.
% M) Q8 i# F" j+ B9 K7 j0 p1 V( U6 s0 {5 c
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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