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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.4 s; y& a. V2 U. [& W: [* R8 k
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 Q+ L. s) R  b. _9 p9 U4 D4 O

  G# I6 F/ I8 F! r: u6 S* m0 ^"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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  T/ h/ C1 g! |+ dTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # b% H% V& N) ?# Z' P; M( Y! l
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." M$ g  q+ @# P3 y9 z0 A! X

6 ?1 f" p# R3 M! g- a+ V" IMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。4 o; B2 c& _. S- m, b; A4 \
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 5 B/ T& j& g! l$ v
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( |& T$ a* M5 i- v9 C2 C+ k很多人都回学校深造去了% y- k. h) ^  Z& S% w! c/ T
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta# ]3 U- Z: m- C! v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# x8 X/ W! O! p/ V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- K! u( v  \" T6 M9 u8 k$ bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 N" t( n6 j, i% F: ~; G
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" `. M/ V1 N. B% Q& c# z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. Y$ s$ W, U  D- {# ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," i# O. N5 Y5 E- `2 s$ S( l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 P3 x* S! S4 D7 u. Y5 Q5 }' K( A
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* ]6 A, |& C/ ^2 Q4 ?( opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( d' f- g' s9 ]0 J" D$ }
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 n) L) n. F' l" r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 x; \% R+ O( t9 ?prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% m- `8 v+ }1 M( G/ cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 Z: o5 q& a1 t* D9 h1 {6 @+ s0 B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ i) V# I; u& r9 ?# r$ u5 \30,000 new households will form in the province during9 }) L5 J1 A0 X1 ?) M0 m6 B/ V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' x: u& u5 l7 c; S: h+ o- pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* }) z2 l# i. w$ q) {6 Y: Rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' j' y8 ?6 S% S* r4 z  t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
  M7 J% T: Z+ d& Y9 \/ ^6 @) Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' E6 h7 S" W. {# ?, _households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& k) v/ q7 {8 j" X1 L4 h! x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( w* E5 Q* v, P  c1 Osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 K& P# k0 r! y; u# P
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 T/ E3 J5 g3 T/ t8 C% }0 x$ Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 `' b+ z0 w! u! @1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a  e+ V3 L. W9 N& t1 e
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 h1 ?$ f$ R3 n6 Z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. ]* `" I/ N, Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 V/ H# A, U* E' k
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 K% [0 C, u2 K5 y2 c  \
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! c. m& D) o: C! T+ N4 h% o, \: s* Precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% y# I% I* V$ G! o6 Kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. i  K  a4 \! c8 g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 I  J! ?% i+ u* R0 m0 g6 S9 tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled. P$ ~! _' B6 x6 i) V+ c5 _
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! P" W( p- L0 j$ e# x+ b
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- m$ S' K* D6 _7 f( ^
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; S; T/ x( ]6 F
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 v" F. Q; N# khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 Y9 o& t: b# T$ K5 ]' a. b- Z# l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, o* }1 I0 D) s/ m6 k: e
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! R2 U' F' t7 O. G5 l
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& j; S. X; `: G- \2 S  e8 Z2 z* y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 |. T% K$ R) OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 n3 M$ }3 b% f' u; z* xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
& K* V7 [/ r& h$ s3 e0 qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# @7 G/ t- I: o9 N; {% |9 l: Z$ P
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 l& E5 d: g: b' J) X4 \2 G
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 ?* K% ], j4 m  z3 Z& q4 \/ ]Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 I# M( e3 w4 z, v7 b. b5 u$ W7 V. x9 N
leg down over 2009.! Y; V! v" _& @5 M+ u

! J5 _; ~& B8 }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ l7 x/ F9 @# ^5 }( X( I$ r$ ^Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  ~& w4 \* |  t# Z5 X' L- G" y1 l" Z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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5 ~' ?/ z/ y5 u/ P/ T) n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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