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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.8 D& g4 u! q1 h) U

) t: t1 A  n3 H( j, V5 XTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ! ]8 `1 d: n- U1 b
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # B7 f+ r& a& S9 O

. m9 n& R- m6 VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' n3 U' T0 @  S4 P- q
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 4 J9 F+ `3 T. d; V& ?/ K5 f( F

5 t; I' q% k: l. v$ o6 }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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8 S* y/ |' B8 v1 T" f- x, v) yMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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/ `& x, t: z2 k& khttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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& p) f) R: c9 rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) a2 t, D  U4 P$ z/ x, H

2 i) o* I" p8 Q  |' U[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% e1 m9 d' W9 f# e2 Y 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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7 i5 D7 ~9 U; i# x5 l# z[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
+ p* V6 n8 I/ K+ R+ ~/ m跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 @6 ?  f! r" n) ?- I很多人都回学校深造去了
1 |0 w. o+ }. ^" ~1 f* F嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 _: z8 R3 r2 Z2 o- H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 U% [* L) i, }, n6 {% r; X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' G: v1 ]' H. ]$ c3 L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* R" }2 h* P) \" l5 W
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( ?: k2 W; _* J' C  r3 z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) `7 W# D" |3 F' d* E6 M( M5 V7 W
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% p( q6 n6 F! D: i! |the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: G: M& G: a' n2 H3 pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 e: F& G3 p# _+ [( o- C) D7 mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% c9 j* I: ]1 ]: x; J7 D" }precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# y& o& U# W" R; v+ h" m3 R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 y6 I, l$ q& y: oprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( @, g9 V0 g. D0 Byear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 v3 z) y0 Z- n: c3 Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 g2 r2 Z+ n6 C/ N  H30,000 new households will form in the province during  r: j. R+ Y( ], m( d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! B3 s; D3 K8 p; x+ q" q3 k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 g+ Y! W* p% z6 ?
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 \- q  N1 T: K) e% Aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; i, d9 T1 W/ o) N
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& d9 K; g. P: u: j5 Qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) v  c4 x! B( n
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* P8 h7 ?( V1 I8 Y: ]8 Esales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 G, W$ h5 P  [3 z: d; B
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 \; V$ g6 b' R6 {3 t3 e& L- d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) l7 x" X4 [( a# k8 A( y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' X4 n% q: I% n( Z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& x" l5 t/ A: Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' s7 P0 ^" s( C9 b. G
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 K, b; v5 U0 l% @% Punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% n; Y, U0 c# Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# h) {( ^0 E2 U1 B
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ c  q: W2 R7 I+ }/ L
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# \& u7 x, p5 T6 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* I( c  w+ I- P& o9 c) |( E% Yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 l/ H! D0 C1 O' B3 M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 j, V! I  z* N; G7 KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( p' @0 G" U8 ~& Z9 e, S8 `) Vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 x& X. F7 c8 c9 P- `; B' |
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( c' D4 t$ Z3 e6 ], l% d. F/ Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 E" E* c# e- G% f  z$ Y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 t. K7 C5 n% x2 }
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 q$ e- t2 |0 [/ c: K2 U: D7 j6 g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 y' ]) U/ b% e, m, e9 S
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ ?0 H. m6 v+ n" fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, k  n% S: c4 a. Z- ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 Z# g4 x( u$ ~6 o  }- _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ Y; e* n! B9 d0 \; P* ~8 y; xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( i; [& p5 W3 Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, i3 u/ W/ p7 J7 T, Q2 g) F0 b
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: G  K7 a# k% Y( A9 l+ h6 n' a
leg down over 2009.& z# U4 H! ?1 M$ t8 y/ _& x/ E6 d0 U
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* w' h' j. B. A9 g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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! s% [* T) X, }. Q2 i# a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 [8 [& K1 }) @( u5 y, `: T翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子) [1 t/ ^. b) D

8 h) w  L" u( s0 Hhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 K  @6 w* p- X: e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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