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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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$ ^( k7 z3 A  D3 g% lThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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, u2 \9 ?( s& ^5 KNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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0 b8 \, L! ^: ]3 o. ?5 STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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( y- e6 \2 ]+ I; H2 h# n7 h' j2 `4 nMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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! t. g0 R2 V0 e4 V7 J* J+ h6 hhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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7 p2 u: t' A" @' a( p, n[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
( @4 m, }* B0 m$ k- s 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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2 N% x- j: ^  B8 T) g6 u! A9 e[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
; u  r8 g- Z* l' b跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. }/ s% U4 d* Y- c( p很多人都回学校深造去了
1 _2 Q. p* g' k; P7 R9 G( `( |嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta$ Q/ ^, ~  ^. K# h, k5 r
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ A4 ~/ i1 S( L4 K5 U3 ~
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 X; F8 b. H7 D) q8 Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; V8 ^5 m8 V6 ^$ _* m2 L2 `
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, h: K. m* `7 D& J8 v0 D  eformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 b& S$ e* E  t, Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 Z4 w; \, ^6 m$ }1 ?5 ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! I- H+ c( E3 Imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ F5 z0 E0 j+ l" g7 Qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* ?" x) {! p1 _6 Q; Y( W6 p8 F. a
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ u2 {4 C$ @" a
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 M( ~+ D& C  P' B8 k# x  L6 e
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ T; n( x6 \/ U: R1 Y$ U: e
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; H: a# _4 W; W7 L% fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ j4 m/ N- }: u, \
30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 D: M8 ?' V0 O; B2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 H+ a6 L  O" D, s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 R/ l: Z/ \3 P5 _% D" q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* w1 K3 Y7 D2 _2 u. Rduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
5 O/ G8 E5 ^7 m# O4 ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% h7 ~- a% o1 R) X& Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: F, Q& [: s( p' B9 g: S
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 I) l0 [; O( S. U2 H  {$ P6 fsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: q; I6 n# {& r9 K
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: ]1 X  g  a/ D' \1 C' ?; V  Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, ]- m/ c8 F# _3 ], T9 g0 q0 [
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. {3 V) K8 M4 R) Wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! c8 x  A! k0 s6 w- _buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 \5 F& U; {% Y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( M( q3 K6 M. ~! A& Zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ z* x1 u/ i/ i+ |& _6 i) {
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; f; U+ P7 W4 I& d: j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  H: B& E# }9 Kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! l6 ^2 l1 X4 Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ _9 L! B% D* v% `" v- O+ Fof new singles, and, with demand having cooled# K2 q6 x) m/ C7 R3 p
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 ^! x2 k0 k& }/ x4 o$ q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% G$ M6 ~" ]& h. d: h4 T* X( N: b  H
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, J  P) F7 B/ d$ w& uAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan9 _( j# Z- m5 d9 r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 Q, x- f/ b& T% M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 `9 i# v% p! L3 o3 Q0 A8 m% t) m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 Q  S) j& C4 S9 n/ Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 m# K; j5 R2 d# f% v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 k$ }$ x! V& u4 {0 dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- k" F% [6 z$ Y( C! y* _3 f1 c! uresale price in February is evidence that past prices2 G# W6 X. \& E# x3 w6 \% Q1 e
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) ~7 X# v! z2 _; o
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. o) Y& s' q( ]8 e9 Y0 z5 p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 |% ]% I6 s0 a' f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& }8 H* Y0 K  C, r* \leg down over 2009.
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4 A+ D/ q9 v1 S# p! U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( ^) [! b8 x( E' d+ w1 O  s" MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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9 A- f. M% h0 \, t. {; J- A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 P& V, E" p: F) }( g翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子0 [/ E* l, q4 r' z7 N- L" J' K

" Z' Y# U! P" c4 w. Ehttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments/ i' H& c- V/ y# a0 |/ {

: c! E+ I, C# g6 u/ }, P  _, ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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