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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.# f! S$ Q+ G! i, j) Z7 D
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ) o( i  z5 H3 n; o4 d
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 6 J0 V3 `- R$ n$ k* Z1 s9 X  ]7 N
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.0 i3 o& L& U; f6 d, Y1 X  G
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.1 C$ {+ e$ y6 v  C$ X9 I4 \. s

+ |9 N) Y4 \' V$ I4 f1 o2 _"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- ^5 [) e$ W: iMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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) v$ M5 p. x/ u3 Xhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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& @2 e' x3 d% G; rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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2 f7 |/ \/ ~) p6 i[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
; J' R% R; b$ y; l  z! |* J 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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# M/ o! R( G( C[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % J3 U! l) a- V4 Z" |  a
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了8 C7 U6 H  r3 k$ ^
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 a0 h1 d2 V* _" f
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 c& P4 B; W8 Y1 a+ x* s' c8 y+ H
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ q1 G) |% }1 Aare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# Q2 o  m2 Q' Z( C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 v( j( f' O  Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. l$ B4 N. n/ m2 f" d+ h& p, w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 B# U* o, x3 ~/ }) ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& _+ }7 N( z! l& f
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* x. D- F, c: H' v+ }pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 w$ H! @9 w! a; g4 kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! l6 l5 S. z4 P0 E4 e+ m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" c  m$ M% Z6 f4 f. O
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 r+ R0 y* ~+ a% p0 N2 Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 i& z( h" [0 c& D2 _
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 }) Z$ o& ?& t# v) A# F8 `30,000 new households will form in the province during9 B& W8 K* J. ]& B6 N. S
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 f/ b% f, ?6 P" K& LEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 j, \  |# e2 j7 W  Dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; M' u- Z, I3 `$ W# d. v& Q1 D1 Z7 Gduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& w4 n) I  D8 }( y  b3 f2 L
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& I8 C! a( f9 D- B2 _- ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, \" u: \7 s3 H# V/ L; w" @during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 d% L6 Q5 ?; V: A6 {
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 ~: u$ n7 C1 P9 Q0 _2 n% l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 S' v9 W2 U" g4 A: M
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& T! q! z3 {6 g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# @; K: S. k2 P2 _& `, v+ ?
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- ~& G4 Z3 N+ m) z' `
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 u4 q2 A) N& ^, K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- B. F$ d: M9 N! M- m# {5 F
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. y! I$ c3 ?+ zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% e# z+ v) `" J3 X( g2 Mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ {( p4 @) u) Z. N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 G3 N3 e4 v) ]+ b% }  w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 q  |" j+ Y) v/ Q' S
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* m, L' B5 F$ v% x" i# ?" X  D7 Trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 |/ W" r/ C) p: S& i2 I9 o4 B
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: i& z' [1 _, t5 E& _2 W% W& gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 \% y+ X" E. w! ^2 o8 C* t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 D/ E2 F% v6 o, V) g* o6 G6 shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, b  x( n  E9 S3 L* \' R+ brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) O. i9 n' a$ _+ n4 `prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ `9 K0 d$ `; k* O! L6 Y) ^
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# H, M% {$ B. Hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- F" q, ?  q6 ?% w! G, v& J" Y; h
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) x- Q% T9 k" z7 T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# m' s0 |2 |* \+ g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% ^! X& L8 v2 H  u: D: t" f
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 Q! e8 l9 Q+ k" z
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* m9 J6 W0 H2 n( D6 z, }) l
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* L9 |$ o7 a/ o/ B: nleg down over 2009.
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- `" \7 X% v! D' t* G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 [* A, [- q$ f, @# m5 W
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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4 p* ]2 D) }: O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 5 G7 h+ f9 q% m  D3 a2 w5 {/ @
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子, L6 E6 g- y' ]3 _9 S: }
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 e9 B* X/ _1 @2 ^: \% R! o! c( k7 P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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