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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . O4 c6 d2 p; P- {
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   J$ o3 }- W, M5 U6 o  N9 ~( Q

5 y- O: m! m+ u8 }( X% e5 c"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , n  I. j  \+ c! m) b( v5 v
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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- T) e5 W/ n$ ^1 I4 FTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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: [/ q9 e3 e$ @9 g"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 8 H" ]$ k5 H9 m
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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$ e( G7 m2 b& R' v9 uMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. + E6 b& O, B+ `4 w! [0 o3 ?

, k. o( D! f3 W# i: v: Phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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! }# t2 C  e2 o$ A* cTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,  d- b4 A- S3 E9 o+ D$ w

  |' v% X* v/ {. l, B# Y[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ u3 G$ x0 _7 ~0 F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( y/ S: E7 Y- w+ C; w' M
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 E" X* j+ V  U( L" Q; i8 ]" L9 s$ B
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了# h" f* m1 S% H- Y: M& g
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
  Y$ u" n4 x. N7 x$ LWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: S9 D$ j/ _0 H- Z: M: ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 c2 \, v7 ?3 @" |
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: @+ S4 w$ a' t. F& O
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% {7 M6 c( p! H6 {
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# E8 s* w$ g# z2 M
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% U, I( \% T) D/ D- Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: u8 I6 Q5 T* E. p8 v! K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ a1 P+ t: [, P; j$ Hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 K3 k$ Q& h9 g1 X: P; C1 Q  C0 Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" N9 _+ S+ S6 a! m% T( X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* }! P, S. h5 d5 E$ t" O: g
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: y: F1 J+ G( |year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! k9 O6 d6 [1 U8 z+ Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 I) Q) r% Q* h$ i2 [3 a# J# V0 t$ U30,000 new households will form in the province during
( S5 T$ U; z; k4 z9 A2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 w" i$ b, w# _7 B& P: `) rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 J' _. B: h7 t) D7 B! I: X* k0 `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ A" W) b1 y: L2 e: hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' v0 p1 J8 F  J5 [1 k9 e3 M& _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 `& x/ x( J8 \0 X* E$ q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 t$ S0 ~0 V3 D; d% _- t- eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% X% \$ j+ W: F& x0 ^/ p5 D, J5 Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 B5 F$ U. Q' y: C1 eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) F' D3 ]# L5 m, c6 s* d( kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* O* H. m5 p* n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; u% |: H: S$ zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- V* M2 l: f5 ~9 \8 S! p2 r( vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# |! }& i$ J! l- y" ?two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 {+ y! t3 h8 A5 n: \% }unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: E4 D, W7 @: |$ b; f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; L+ L0 i7 z- f- Z, qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 Q# i- f/ F4 V5 n; T
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 M7 V7 p; m2 c7 ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 S" V2 t; G: i- M# S5 l/ [of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ i5 \3 o4 Y6 P- Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 h5 V  l: r7 ~3 w% m. `
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 t) Q8 X- Q2 R, oboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% c0 e) a* J8 R7 ~, @/ Q" u* [. C! a
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 `- @* f/ H0 J8 |% v4 L$ Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 o1 p" u6 s, H" P" G$ n4 h# [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 P; e: ^( l8 u2 S& L  s/ ?: sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 R/ _  e7 J* {' J  d4 {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  O! ~- z8 J; Y# p2 j9 y4 P! z& son average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ [* x; a7 c" m) u, j6 bThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) o' F8 i" a' @/ X; h7 m% U3 O  w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
) q1 U4 W7 F! j& T8 W* U6 iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 S5 x* x  C# Ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* E4 H( b2 }+ p, x
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 ?* V0 g% T( w8 ?- W1 XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%7 @' i7 v: l0 f% z0 w5 R0 z+ h
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 O- }* n& ~0 n3 `3 i% bAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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- }& i. k3 c  s5 w/ r) Q6 x3 T[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. & q' W; Z6 c* x1 k# W, N
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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/ m! M( y# r% O. P0 [: ?http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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7 g7 s' t* X3 s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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