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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics., ~4 c  v& ?$ j- n
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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. H& f! \4 ~4 K9 }5 O0 P' H# Q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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) w# `( F$ t& r6 PNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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+ Z, y$ q- p8 d1 hTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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+ \" o- A: S, B+ y. L9 v0 aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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* Y3 R6 w- t9 h, X: Z, B: yMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % A& H' r4 W2 S) E" C
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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. L4 N! b8 v; e+ B[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 N3 f! G1 }% k- p1 w1 N4 Q+ R 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。" \3 d0 V' {6 Q- ]4 I
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" U8 b  x$ [- G) J1 O跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
8 {* y, l& q3 ^3 J( Q嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
4 J' T& h, @9 ~/ b/ F, GWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 {8 x& i7 P6 X" j) R3 O7 a* I4 p
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 x# ?3 |; y) r6 w0 }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 C1 f: \, L5 d
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 m" Q. b! V9 `- Oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! v$ t9 b# i: z0 k! w# c8 ~% q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 k0 A# y* `$ r9 h
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ a" L* O) b+ {: }& E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( A+ d3 E4 C5 C4 s4 @pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 [  a  e, G' q) Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 Q0 p) V$ E$ R, m3 wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 ^/ U' a4 F5 Q3 d; b+ s3 j/ s" F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. ?) p+ t/ o4 C; F0 m* dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 Y/ ~0 E! j; e1 T& ?. [
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# w8 r7 a0 I! F30,000 new households will form in the province during4 V9 N3 v8 [- g; P4 ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. n& _3 Z. G, q" LEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ v% Z, \! y) d, Y  B- `+ g$ S! v! {
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ |1 |& v) A3 ?1 A
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& Q9 p8 s3 ~  v7 [' k. I
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' x, G# |& V' b4 B2 u
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ X& k' x" m' `2 L: a
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( g3 o$ q# m# T5 Y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 Z& X9 Y. b4 M, G! M3 C9 eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 T" S: N( r# gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 n- z' {1 ~$ P# g5 n: ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 A9 {3 W2 ^. L) i0 V# Z  x) c% nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; W; q1 u" ]4 }& ~# T( N$ j! }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* }- {$ z4 X4 l, u( ?8 ?two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# J, r: ?! z. ]5 t
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ n; ~2 ^' p9 X, @: c4 t  \
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' f1 h) g' {4 [' |$ ]( f$ a% ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& U4 N  m$ n8 B; tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ g: Z6 _/ B0 V+ smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; i; x6 B4 K8 ?6 A7 p2 uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 \) t  R: f" {* V: U( U2 Krapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." l2 d3 ~: |$ Z) C5 N9 A+ [2 P8 y' v
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  s+ f" I1 j. W7 S3 [  S2 M2 Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.( ~, q, R  R4 b9 G; _$ u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
; u# q  S& A2 e+ B2 i, Z( ]( g, Bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 X) q/ W# I. H9 z, A* ?7 _
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: X! Z  n( F7 p& |9 _" x; b' J1 k
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 l4 Z9 p9 q; X/ i; Z+ ]) c6 n7 bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 K# P! O  n  _5 \) F/ U
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 E8 r- |) t8 [2 _1 m; ?4 p# u
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: y: v; v1 x: f$ P; g
resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 v; A& F2 q- V# P* O
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 x$ j7 z$ i- c0 D3 a# h" jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. k* M+ v! t5 t2 }
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* b" y/ e, k4 ~) S- QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 h/ W. {" Y' f( w  w" N1 E  i* P8 j
leg down over 2009." f: t1 O( K/ e4 X2 K1 H% m/ l

3 q& q! J  h* z2 m! O3 G% l# D: k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" i, O5 P( H' ~0 s% yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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3 m) z* q1 @2 z  C5 ]' I: t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
# U7 p; g$ X# N, c3 H- [: |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 {7 i8 I1 S. A5 i% p$ Y
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments) ]. _# U9 y8 ]+ z

+ {: k# [: ^6 ^- C3 W6 P# }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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