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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 l! R% S) @$ P+ ?" z

# X2 p2 T+ T5 U* y* a1 {- lTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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5 U- Y; ~% Z  R  U* {  EThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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  ~$ ?7 k" G- f7 Q+ s"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' T, j) j7 w7 V7 {' a
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. * c* }" r6 T# S) H; Y& l6 [- j
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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' I9 d# h9 d7 p# j3 T" D6 \http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,/ Y  y, G6 K# q- Y: K( V
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 l: G# [$ @! C+ F 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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) r" B$ [. ^- H[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . y* t5 A7 g+ Z; e
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 y* v+ h- y$ u$ H4 y3 V8 w很多人都回学校深造去了3 M+ C+ _/ S: x$ P& T2 Z7 j
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
8 A7 G9 W. y4 A! t8 q+ J+ z7 v+ J& eWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% U9 E0 T0 q4 Y, Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ I) l8 L+ _7 @7 A
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 ^, C1 y' P7 I2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 Z8 f+ |: ]- C1 n7 W+ Hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided$ c$ a( x% w# T0 E
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 w# K1 |9 k& \2 U/ B5 mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 o( ]2 A; m+ o2 z2 ^8 H. {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& ?7 U( X4 C5 z. p3 r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 o% o. n& o0 }% Z0 {8 k: s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' U5 X# q' E" F4 m: Jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- T' a- M. }; ~( |/ A1 K2 m9 Xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* Z: P7 b8 P# i! eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; ~- ?) T" l0 r/ _homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, J- p( O+ A) I! P' _2 X) \
30,000 new households will form in the province during& N3 B1 C/ B! @4 v8 A
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) S) H& d. a  O( {5 P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 r. h* Q9 b/ c4 phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 y- i+ J8 a! x! s; a& O4 L
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( m2 J! C! t" M, E9 p/ g+ P
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# j$ x7 n/ w! {- G9 b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 c( o8 p' M6 v; M( {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ f8 w# I- G* w0 [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- I  O& B& I6 \& f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 _+ p- o+ A9 q& o0 a
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 o3 H' {1 y$ L* P# }7 k" s6 L1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 U* W" ~) a8 O& d+ z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, Y1 j6 f, Q% K5 y( m$ \) K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ z( i+ j  q$ t8 q7 f9 T# X
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 z9 q7 u' s0 v& @8 Y7 M5 T) n
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, T; p4 f- N, K& H, f1 Z3 q* R
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 z1 T4 V0 g9 s. q# }' K4 z) k
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 t, B1 i  q7 l7 @% |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ L" Z4 h* x2 Z( Q+ t! n: h4 T. G
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# N3 p& ~9 X3 a  A% @) dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 S$ C5 c. q/ N- V6 v
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 r+ z- w3 F! q4 |, n; xThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ l0 L$ L8 w( M4 j% D" Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 Y* M3 Q" x) X0 S$ d  w: ^( V
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 ]( V3 m2 [. c6 m0 }( O+ g
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# r7 w5 o/ H/ a0 O# z9 a" g* Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 j( f( z0 R2 v, N$ e2 Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 G8 G) M% E0 k# L  fthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 C  r8 C' L2 j' }5 H
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& O" G( _* c/ F' `/ s) vThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: w4 [* ^% S( E* b% ?
resale price in February is evidence that past prices) h( }) Q/ @' A* [: o* K$ R
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ q4 K7 ?- N% f/ M% Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" T3 E, Y5 n3 r$ @
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 u$ T2 L! i9 F# T4 P+ h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' |- A7 A4 o# z; S0 X9 V
leg down over 2009.+ _! t/ s. I/ l8 V& i& W
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 W1 w  u8 i. J6 _/ E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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, C+ {- _* H, A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
: L: `9 o* d, t/ }/ y) ~翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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5 N& I0 W6 j" V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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