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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta# g6 F& j' O8 i: m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& g9 J U6 W* D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 I7 d7 |. h: q! x8 g/ V' H0 J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 M. Q. `# n u- {/ V2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- P4 p$ l7 h, Q i8 {( Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ n: ~* o# |( t0 U* ^( d. ifrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 H& M- Q# e) o: Cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; P' s2 {3 `6 z$ i: Gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 X. _# Q' b5 X L. v8 g( j8 s
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. `) I& N8 s( `* Wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# C6 I7 z& Z- _- M& K+ N9 P! pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; P* a/ Z- t: ^7 q+ ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ z6 L0 }, g3 m# D2 Dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," g' m1 o! K1 D7 I/ o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 t. |3 |# @2 u6 \) ?( K
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 N$ c2 T; P) c* K t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. ~+ k7 I( u4 s' M. QEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 s) L4 _0 c0 l( \( j; e
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ b5 R0 P' R- o E+ |; ~( I" L3 T
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 u, s8 L; R' q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: S# C J9 o% W+ O: _* |
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ Q% n, @. t! {8 }during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 a& c) g2 H5 j1 ^
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 H; C1 M& R/ N. M9 I6 ]; J+ Q7 c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& F8 M/ Q- p( {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) K* h$ Y: q6 k, ? [% r6 W3 h: t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 H8 B( r8 c3 p4 n4 F
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 B- s. k( m. @/ ~, u S
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 \2 p& ^$ w/ k0 L" Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 E; `/ m) i2 M8 J9 Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% s; e! ]6 G3 U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' A1 ~! C+ p! y* J
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. c$ {4 N4 z7 e, p0 L4 ^
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: B; l" x8 O1 L/ h3 wmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' [* f) T0 H9 J* w
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 O z1 |4 a5 q+ d) w
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 u$ j% |( V, B$ Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 y. A# p% ^1 ^9 n, y2 kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# l5 F' g) x$ pAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 v, a9 g' Q! D. R5 \
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 g9 n. s! X l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 e. h; b$ `8 Y& O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: o" K. {" E* \+ o2 b! _$ Zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- s3 m+ V, ]4 }2 @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 K6 Z% J7 ~: z1 r$ U
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 r L4 B$ h3 ^7 t7 B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; k: P3 u4 o5 a& s, t* ]/ ?, fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 D! e5 L5 T( v0 R4 u7 L6 D; g
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 _9 E9 K6 t' L; S+ mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 r; g0 x1 p; g6 o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 ]" [7 |+ s. i/ r
leg down over 2009.
9 g- D9 W5 G) q8 {3 G+ g$ G5 [" \) e6 t' u4 e1 i9 ?3 M7 V
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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