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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 7 e! c4 V* p. ?/ t& ~* G. v, B

* m% x0 f! D6 q: M. eThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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. v& s- C5 ]6 ?0 Y! n- |"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) P) y% {$ G# V, S5 X$ L3 {

7 R6 B3 L  }/ Z, GNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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. b1 K# \- i% D, z0 ^"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. % s& y/ [; ?3 ~9 c

0 G" J  @6 ]" Q8 b& f# W* \# H) L) RTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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$ q( T0 L+ t, v5 x" F' ?Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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& m& W, o% g" O# s4 Ahttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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2 t8 e: c4 P+ h0 p# ^% ?[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 i# s1 f# q) {+ c 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# u5 [- M$ L7 n4 d- T跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
+ |& Q. |$ H' J0 M+ n9 P% w% G2 P嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
* B* h6 e. L# @" v5 dWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" v1 Q) j; I2 M% f8 n, Z8 O6 G+ `
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; y& O+ Z' j# T/ @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. T  }; q# e2 h8 T2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ X* L" X8 {* ^2 fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 Q0 J6 W4 H+ B5 v' T2 B$ H. j( Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: _: h) i& C1 G
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* f3 ^* p/ @7 _
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( v% L% K' [/ Jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& c1 T! i* b% q! v5 |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 R+ b. G0 b2 M1 N( ]
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! @) j3 R; s# }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) g5 d+ C8 M$ B  ~5 Y, o
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 C4 Y: [8 \4 _' x  ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ g$ L* N" I( @# ^5 v. ?4 D
30,000 new households will form in the province during
# r. D. A  e( D- N1 A) d; h6 w3 P2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 p8 Q' g3 j2 i# Y% Y) o
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 F: K0 ^$ h% ~  x; F/ phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( n. A3 e. k8 z) C- c9 g8 V" d0 Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: C" o& B6 e- Q# U" C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 d5 {" f0 a$ \+ ?* B  R/ W- n8 X+ khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. i4 D9 v2 F7 x" p
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 N- H/ V4 J0 B3 s( v* q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 O0 y6 X4 i- u: v& t4 oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 L# l( ]+ z; O7 yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# z+ L6 K# f* i* X
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 g& G& q. \% N4 L: V
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# q- a0 a, S7 G+ X0 E  U2 T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ C9 Q. ^9 Z- H! Itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 N, w8 i3 U' T- `! ~, K- R
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# C/ [2 c/ |& M. n( p
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 n6 n: \. O4 n( O7 _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 p$ Y  T1 q7 N" ^: v9 |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) R$ L* {, O9 i8 Z3 n7 L. N
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 \6 O, ~- H' Y0 g3 a
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, E6 u& M0 {- |7 K
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.3 c% t, \! H) c& T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 b( O7 D, t4 X( F+ [4 U( m) t8 t
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 ~' G* P3 _0 C/ E3 J0 r' i9 JAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: ^0 d; A9 h* Z& @# i: |2 x, Dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, E% W6 d/ q( w, }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& X0 j+ l  K# K2 _% G+ n9 Q4 Gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, N/ ~& I+ e* o6 I" c3 @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) ]. ^; K& _; p/ C  ]; W& q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 W1 ?! E0 |9 ~, t2 D
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; K' ?7 `  j2 Y6 x* B) t; w9 A0 K* K
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% C3 O( ?. Z9 }4 a" X  k5 m- N  E8 ?
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 d2 u) i& B" Q  b0 G  Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% x* I. K7 |, C+ I: g- Q0 h* J' [deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  R5 [1 s1 q1 K9 L( Y$ Y0 }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  M1 A& \( C8 _) J+ C) z# J# `
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 O. {+ t3 T4 _3 U, QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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" q' d) ^* \: Z5 b, v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 U0 |2 U% j1 T) r5 g! \翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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- t8 L3 A' I& M  P2 Q& G: nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& i. D2 r) f5 K  I0 z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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