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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics., u1 @. y  e* |$ v7 b5 y

6 t! S# e$ E7 nTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / f1 A* \% v7 E: u; Z8 I

9 @; F: R) r  dThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 U' s/ Q+ l, z; g9 X

/ A- `2 [& a$ TNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# ~2 {- v, X9 ~/ i. H: a
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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- t/ H1 S( ?& A, N, |6 X"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) T, D( m( Z$ |) _& y, x$ w

% @' p/ I6 j; `1 V: tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.* s4 s0 M% R: J* U2 ]4 I& w
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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3 v' z. e9 g1 [3 i1 |2 P; y3 ?1 tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 m0 y+ u2 q& j( F

0 \* R' L  S1 X" u7 t[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。3 S5 L& L4 w5 g' y
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。5 }" J* }" T7 n, f$ O: S
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . {& U3 }" `" D9 d% n4 m8 A7 J
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
. }( `9 c9 B% X% `4 x0 g嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 h4 H! t, c# b- p( y$ t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 B3 K$ M, g+ z  N; v; S: [8 z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 v6 k5 l  _  B! A; X. rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 F. U1 U0 [3 H. \2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ U% G* _& P7 I* j! I" D8 ]
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 i% Y& o; |2 a% k% L# Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% U4 y4 [& J% ~$ M" v9 w# I) u) T
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( A0 N* l2 K0 Q/ g: s2 c6 O
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* K5 f: y5 q4 `+ E8 T* z- Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, T; F# s8 F: K2 \/ iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 v3 ~+ o: `) y0 g  |# V! N/ Bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 |$ o, M- h+ A$ yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ c7 v* N4 k( I; }7 E( _+ z& cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 i0 R+ p7 S/ w* L* Dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 X+ x6 ~) v& c5 P2 D. N3 E
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 P) u( n; D# F: Z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# x4 h+ F; X- Y2 M4 c& v/ X7 X4 y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- w# `0 e( }2 U) @5 C5 H6 O. j
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! \- `, X5 I, J/ l; C' o8 `- w% C. y* ^
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, h$ X, D4 x8 L4 k3 W
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new  W- I& o- A1 V* Y: z7 n
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, S; W, L" Z; G% e( j) i" p" |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) L# `* Y; |& F9 Rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 [5 c0 a! Y3 l, X% D% Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% C# V8 }5 @5 {% k3 t0 n" ^! texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 a  v0 E3 s# b6 l1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 P: ]1 |# q; g/ s, R
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 k8 U1 C* k: N3 n$ ~; ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ o9 i" T3 J( j# @' N
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: Q8 c0 C1 }2 v2 x, G  B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 U" _! x) |( `$ {* Funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 G$ y, ?9 U% v% F2 R  Precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 y; W" c& N2 m& fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 s4 K/ c! j* n# G8 U, vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 W. x' q* u. w: o
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 c6 x9 w! Y( R9 N. @: B+ h( U' n/ ?; orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ P4 ?6 k% t+ P4 r9 A
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 U! |/ R2 o# Y9 ?& [5 Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) A0 d; x8 z& r; \1 p% q0 X# L, l0 @: PAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan- ~' S5 c: n6 g9 E/ D4 |; m7 e7 y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* P; w3 V: O* t% s) O: m4 v5 O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ H6 ^0 i! u0 N* N4 p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even- O4 F6 R! X8 [6 M; D. o, o- m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; W' u6 a. c" a0 t0 L; y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 k8 n4 G1 @, W3 G
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 ^% a7 \3 l! ^/ o2 a3 T  f; g' r
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' j  _# ~9 d- b. Z9 F. e+ e2 bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 `- i  q, X$ Y8 v  Y/ k. V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 `2 l! r3 ^8 n2 adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! S/ V. b( Z) o4 A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, I' Z) o) j# \+ U( ?$ ileg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," _# x' e& l4 G2 s3 W8 S+ H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) I4 f1 d- t% T- g* z& K( a6 q3 P+ O
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子  r/ J7 R  s9 e3 S5 C  i

4 A6 g5 N! i/ C0 y) }( Q* X. D1 D3 q2 Shttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! z: i' E6 I4 r; i5 A
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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