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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ z8 M, d: y* p4 [" F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 {: K# e% L9 S$ ?' ]' rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 g1 }9 R* u$ n
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 S G# \! z/ h! A& b. ]4 P
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' C) a1 ] a: X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 k2 i* n9 c4 F2 kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: ~: D' z6 ]1 ~) H- v/ N/ Fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; ^2 P1 z5 Z& w- j: _2 o5 |, X! S7 nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 b1 K) u0 m) E2 b6 o7 y5 Lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 I( ?/ F& s! Q8 x: K$ Y' dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, p! b0 Z& l; J3 g) jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 T6 F( |- Y3 z) v- w. N/ y' ?
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) _4 o' f) ?- p l3 ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 B' Z4 O9 @3 lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ [2 U9 r" W0 a5 p1 g2 x o$ c8 n+ j. [
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: f& q# v5 s) w, [! ?2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 P! W M* o/ a! |# V) w5 |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 u( b. J) _: J4 q: Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
_- J' Y" L! p; Dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 R# _$ I* v7 `# b6 }4 ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 b6 a2 e4 P+ z3 B. |households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! L* ~1 z- ?* r5 |1 Yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 H% ?3 \" @' Z% Y3 psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( H% x8 g% R* P1 Q% g; A1 tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, G/ R# T0 [& A7 uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* A1 d* Z& Y' ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 v% J, ^( J; t+ j3 Rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 o# H( l7 O, @0 G+ t
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 q2 Z+ I L6 Y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ B$ U0 `4 C1 A5 S# s( Q% wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 M7 p2 ?3 Q1 Z6 M+ H2 V+ xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- D1 F2 s1 m: T0 s0 `2 ^8 Z, `
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 P& O1 x( M9 }$ u& F, x# {
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! G9 Z. `; W/ z7 smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 E( O8 f8 q/ ^; c
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 K# U4 \( j8 \2 r
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." z& |9 f) b% M* j4 }" h7 x& H
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s y# t7 S9 ?, s7 m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. T) E/ L/ c5 x8 }( x- iAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# ^" B; a* ^* Z4 A; q7 D
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 h: a \# _( S' Z- w) L* m( f# e* a* prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 X$ k; P. ?' `' N2 J# W% zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 ]% v5 D' _7 \" {" v( ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- U8 c4 B% K$ \4 m$ R3 b
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: C, s7 p2 H" BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- S) J: f) q2 L3 @resale price in February is evidence that past prices& l/ r* T" l2 t
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& z T, Z: g9 |+ l5 I
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 }7 l( e; F |
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 M( Q" |, N1 o1 M5 |9 g0 IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 Z4 z; b0 o7 Aleg down over 2009.
4 M3 }! L3 [% I$ S9 [8 E) }0 A6 g6 X! u( Z4 @+ `4 [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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