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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 i  A( `4 u, m% Q0 ]+ Q

2 n; n6 o8 c! R/ Q( o. }  kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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6 Z8 d0 I2 ^( W7 wThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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, m+ {( N! L: d3 f; a0 y7 QNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 W  S* ~! _$ B$ I" H' w' G9 ?

! H8 F8 D. M1 W, R' S" q7 e% o" HTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.# U( q* d7 O! C2 t% O: S- D3 I

0 |- D8 P9 l  I"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( _/ I% y6 l, K& ~

: F. u# h. g/ \' |2 T/ {* wTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% i# }+ Z2 [& q, n* q8 W; z

1 l" c& o8 X% |( t$ E" B2 g  OMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 o3 C! ^. P2 {/ y' J/ m) O
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% C# X/ P! d* K2 p6 k- F+ x& C
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 w5 P+ C+ b* G( r3 U# d7 X1 l 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 Z( D: b; u5 ?跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

6 c; N7 L: G6 Z$ R( y: T# w很多人都回学校深造去了
2 d3 ~1 i: M' G嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta1 Q/ h1 c5 a$ {/ }
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; S8 o$ `$ ?3 ~1 w+ vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 e1 Z/ _) p# a: s& @) O: kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" P8 t+ q2 `  J5 W( r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# l0 I, {: J1 z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
  g: N9 h: q( tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,0 Q" x- Z9 Y, n& f: J' [# j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 c7 g' {- f3 Q* Fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 t! q: v) @4 b! |* e1 U4 jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 \7 d! e' O& v4 H/ N( c
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ \# w7 q' t0 q9 V1 }- R2 f
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* m4 x! X+ |& i; Q8 p- b- Q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ v; K# U2 R) z" Q) u% Nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. B$ `7 R- c% B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' A# K. ]7 y, a0 f1 L. ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during- e2 D8 |# G0 F9 [! Y  N9 r; d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% R* A- D5 j0 k* r/ A* TEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* O# E5 B7 f; c9 Z  ^* ]homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- W7 Z2 s9 J- ~( S- lduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; G1 Y0 f4 {7 qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 h4 x& y$ ?- U' D- _/ g1 {# z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! J) d, G' }) i) J' w) G
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 B& T8 q5 a! V) J/ T' lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- T8 Z4 Y' ?3 j: D& V/ B" X
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: s9 n6 W0 r7 T1 K. F+ I4 \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 N$ u2 e2 l3 f$ l/ [
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: C7 s  o% i- G& J' o5 F. o7 K. f! _3 q& K
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* F' I' `8 r* S2 q2 v# m) }buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  o) p# J7 m2 L4 R
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 L( Z/ N+ ~8 Y) C& L0 _' h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: v5 j5 x3 b0 @+ S* D! p5 b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; Z! o2 C) S9 D7 E2 P5 |' Q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 c& q% ~$ I; c+ i' D: u# _" B
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- A( P2 Z5 O4 K5 S, }/ V8 s% d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; N9 s" G0 q; a* i8 f! K4 uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 E& ^! P+ `; Y& z* d3 V/ z6 Q' u# P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* [3 T& L! b( j5 d* I% m. n* g7 PThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! P  G2 w7 a( d# lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) q3 K0 P) Z& M; g2 l  iAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ z2 K) f" M# u" Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ W$ x  W% T; f$ M( Z" C* z; N$ wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ A8 w4 c) |- x* C  d$ b, v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' l! a' y/ ~0 ]$ nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 a2 V* |; d. u+ von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 ?( |" y* T& }+ S6 u7 A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 S0 s4 ~# C$ T# S  D' a$ o6 w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* f1 i% x( `6 A/ c) K$ y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 {, D$ A4 {) H7 e4 g# w4 X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! E2 p; y. m+ C5 J& n$ L7 ^* ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: F  H. |; [( P# {3 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 u6 Y: e! P" ?) |
leg down over 2009.
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$ s: i' g& T5 N# |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% I7 {# N4 j) a4 G& ~% oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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, A& E9 w7 }( I8 s$ o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. {- R4 ?) K$ n( J翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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- ]* K: ]  \8 W  Uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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( t  d4 Z4 c) C! R8 |9 l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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