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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 _; t- w4 L1 c4 F* n$ B5 E" pWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; D' z7 B" n+ r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 |. p% `8 q1 }7 @1 ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* E: |& W4 A; A% o. x1 ]$ f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' Q1 \, Z3 t2 ]( D1 Oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided `* T; d4 h* l( d; `3 h, h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
, `4 T1 n) R/ h' Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, ` D! r" i" _! w6 u- b6 H0 o- _8 Xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 L! f! R, m! Lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" x0 j/ v% ~# `& q% dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* [, d7 v4 F, u: C3 S8 d c; C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; q* u: c3 P5 Wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& {: k* o1 f6 Q; S. S& T2 L9 F
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. r, g% \2 N" ?+ Q/ u
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 S; o( n2 L4 s& s3 u30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 h& x! B( s' `- e2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: F) |7 X- n) e
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
& y: P6 ^% g5 ] ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, v! T- y/ B- w
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ C+ V( F& `: i: Q3 B& g7 q2 _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 X+ K) L6 ^( d7 G+ V5 F8 Ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
# n- F/ q f- qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ ?( l+ ?) P) F/ c* O5 }+ L& S K6 ~sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 z5 j; V S6 x: E- h% ^3 oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; u( T- `$ t. X4 |9 cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* t. w3 G |4 [5 ^( H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! S, K! E- `2 S2 S2 O/ P2 Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ r0 @$ i) ^* o. d, g/ O4 h
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: d) i) _+ L. Q0 q4 s+ l+ k& J0 S
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
o7 \+ Z' i, S% b& sunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 }5 \ o8 v t& \) F% m$ Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; u' m p) {$ L, \
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 v% ]. ^' y" [0 w( zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 T0 J, O {$ m7 O4 e$ C A
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 S: }; c$ [' y9 [& E% e, W0 G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& h% B4 \% |" A. G; i% W/ Q5 lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! H7 [* [* w: U4 M) JThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
7 O. S7 @) x8 y% Sboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." ^$ a ]+ X5 ]- a1 \. [' Q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 R6 R. H+ \0 k# K9 j6 N6 H' c6 @housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 W2 [3 _6 d# ] m
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 L& o" `$ l; Q8 C' Q+ H; {# sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# J$ T7 Z8 y4 Pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( v3 y$ O3 W- @: P) don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. d% z5 p) H+ }6 T8 W z$ e- lThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: h5 [* j! j; I0 {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, o7 W. H Y( r* s( Sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 [+ l8 F1 P" \homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 v6 C8 K2 Z; q1 m0 q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 A8 G) O* T& P! GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, R- I8 F$ t) u& f( Qleg down over 2009.2 b9 B# o s* _% o0 ~1 r) t: k; N
8 H1 W4 W* N* h2 W/ b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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