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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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$ l- ~" W2 T8 F/ R" C2 Q  bTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.   q! v- V& S1 Y: }$ c

; u: v* n8 w' ZThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   S# w+ W* W, n$ z5 a2 Q1 o8 V

! n7 q+ M, |8 n! g"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% D3 S" G, b, b9 J3 I
1 m5 x: A0 z0 d% J9 q+ P; Q. G/ S
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- g. C$ l* B- c
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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5 S! o. g8 [1 E2 [+ vTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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* E1 d( b# y# @7 Y9 PMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. # x( A7 H' w3 L% s% h

& w  H" x9 D% _1 {http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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2 v& j& F! Y8 c. l! f+ C9 fTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,0 h* S- N2 [; Z# c( M& }

; h) W  l" |6 H) N[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; ^! `5 i2 `3 |1 D. O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* k5 h8 u9 J% z8 S. E; ^" _
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ) p! ~. B- o5 D* R, Z
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! Q4 p! M/ m( }& v2 y6 h很多人都回学校深造去了$ N& m. A6 w* ~) h* _
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
* t, Y& w3 G3 hWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* i6 o* B& P6 g3 b) d# A, W7 g5 Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- V; w; c7 e: e6 Yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ ?1 `( l& ^8 ?5 v2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" H3 i0 x* M0 I' b( d
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  g0 Z- m3 D2 g- D# l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 E8 d# S/ Y3 r2 B/ z1 lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# }0 ?& y( i6 x1 s* S: rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: p' r; f  c7 e: b5 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' i* A! K, s) y; \4 C' v  {0 j
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 m( ~: }( g" ^* Y1 y1 j
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ \4 F! ?4 Y; T  f
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# j9 a) P' _; }year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," @- b9 O- ?/ }+ I: S: G
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 R" n& u6 i  _( i4 S" x  O6 ^30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 ]% y2 J! O( E" m2 K; R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& w+ _  A1 A  l+ M; U
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( y$ E5 r; ^. [& Zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 Z6 B& M- I( n! ]
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 ]1 G, A* k8 _& rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% ~  s8 d& C, S8 Y! x+ [3 ]/ S# o/ H9 K1 |households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 @( f7 b* q+ Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- m; h1 h5 g! J
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ M. G/ C8 p1 x3 l+ p) B! V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# H" ~0 _7 _: T
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) S5 ~# l- g! Q. H' T8 |8 V
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' w' q$ T$ j* }/ f' c* l0 H: G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ A& \" L8 [$ t( \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 L7 |7 c( L( {2 v# c" a# m9 t' o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( q9 U- `3 g& {$ Q7 w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% x9 I# Q* Y7 x" g8 Nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- b6 p, A9 `: a4 Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ E  E- R& Q" k
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 |2 f5 R1 N" m/ O- w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# Y. L% M" O4 W) ?: iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 u% c( X+ L3 a  V0 j+ C) m
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# I3 S# o( v; ?  i9 i
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) O: N- s' x, }. R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# c$ u5 O! W' S: g9 ?" Q/ e
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 n% p4 H: {0 x6 k6 j& B! T, {housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; ~5 [+ s; c. a
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 N" V( v/ v" e' |- ?* vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 U1 E$ `( ]( I% q7 Q# Hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, B5 [. N6 S5 |( {% ~% Q0 f: Non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 ]  i6 l# }, S) U  fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& s$ X) ?" D/ l
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' ~: O7 |  r/ I3 vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! V# H8 |/ [  R
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" a& }! Z: Y$ O+ K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 a' b+ F! ~" U3 d+ X+ @/ F0 eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 m; _- V+ o% ~- [3 ~
leg down over 2009.0 i& k2 Y4 F! W5 {9 f* f, g+ ]
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 |# m2 u& e; u* @9 t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 _& D' V5 L" Y6 y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
: k+ {, G3 i5 R6 @0 l/ j* ?& |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 \" y+ {: w3 ~, @9 c5 [. t

: C7 R+ M, O% K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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