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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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* j$ z! M" [8 E/ J! a4 L8 i% STD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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) J7 P5 ^2 W' p/ R% g" ?"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ }5 x/ L# P* w! g! I5 x( N

! m4 b3 P9 F& }. y  JNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  J' t  }4 |+ C& k) z: G' D
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.2 h/ h6 S, O7 ^" L4 w  V
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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! Y! R8 ~* C2 tMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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2 u3 W' o0 K& i0 S" s+ Z[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 l1 C' s0 W' c5 o8 m% ?! N 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; T" ]' N2 r8 n2 a) V% x" o% t% M

2 h9 @  U$ \# q  E$ I[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 o6 s- Z( z$ g6 n& J5 o& U! _
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 y2 ^* L" Z7 o4 C/ N$ t很多人都回学校深造去了" g+ [7 t+ \5 b" K& o4 W* Q
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& L: C5 n5 X8 G6 o# ?" \
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- M/ b, h/ u8 M, ~7 d0 e! g. D. pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 M% |& x. M3 o2 b& Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. E3 T: p7 ?$ A; U8 V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" k+ J$ N/ W& f4 q' M; F+ xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" L% q6 P$ V/ s/ @4 L; T
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  e1 Q% K) r. a$ W0 z5 m% gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# p$ v# O& K! {- ?4 omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 @9 i- [8 E4 z" F  E2 i
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: E8 a2 x/ N: S) Q1 m4 P
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" D" J; ~) o8 P4 y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 s. X, J7 u) Q0 n. W$ D
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 {$ Y/ ]0 V8 ^/ C: g* z1 f
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- P4 I1 D  C0 |/ f2 Fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ k4 H7 Z" ]% `8 p4 I30,000 new households will form in the province during
% Z# o5 R& L; h% l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% C7 ]4 _8 H* W0 Z8 oEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 W/ Q% i9 I1 [5 S' u+ Qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 L: B3 ^* W) [/ [during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* b( l' }/ K, A' A# V: A3 ~( Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* }2 j* p# p1 j' y8 f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 V/ _9 S5 X, z! \1 `# K5 x  ?& {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 N% N6 q9 d. o: O4 x/ ^. v: l' o
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" O! r$ v) c; s0 G0 I" b- cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 {. Y9 b  K! t1 v, S3 jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 @3 e: J6 @; _3 w. X# B) x1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; p6 m+ W0 Y) W' o( _! h. j5 X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 |& y4 T" v& ?* L0 ~- Z* y) Obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 h+ V6 t9 Z9 Ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: {$ N  `/ k( q; `! l! f9 s. g
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% W9 ?: l7 v0 K( }$ ^6 x7 B" n' K# B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- |7 u) y4 Z9 g+ N. {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ a2 ~" `. \; T2 B* z7 `( Yresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  V. r5 n, x6 R- }2 {* I" A1 b$ p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 _+ o+ @- m* p8 h) sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) Z6 m, c, G* T% W9 w9 s
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 `( c7 L6 m1 @! d) G" |# x0 SThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 m4 \/ P9 `, J4 M, K% k
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( X1 `4 x, \- B" R/ [1 ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) A# r8 K3 s0 }* W9 ]4 P0 j  i2 z- Ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& r6 h. ~! g7 d% v4 b9 S$ j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# Z3 L. G) D7 X9 f7 e) e3 J; u; ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ {9 Z. W+ j, P; @( gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 Y- ^! I* ^+ I& f3 r8 e' E% {
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 _0 ]" `- j# M$ _0 OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: B4 n! ^- f  B+ cresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 T# V7 g) w9 ~/ r+ ]6 p$ c) M3 Qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 ?+ R7 ]; v; p% h- ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! B( z+ N6 o! e: I( k5 _
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 C, u) p. r0 D
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 C6 b9 b9 g( X( E: h; C) ?leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ E  C% H  Z) [/ rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) [3 L. i2 {) ?: K
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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# y+ l; ~# l; Bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( F; z6 v( ?' n  k, a7 D$ R& h2 w
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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