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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." S! G3 T$ p# z6 X

6 l/ d% O# @0 b. g. p; pTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 4 z' [2 `' d. c: ?

& y+ n: I  @. ^) S" |; VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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, U3 a1 ]0 e- u. G"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , @% g) N& _5 e. X& x

9 p9 G3 o; W( |3 w9 h$ a( P/ @Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* ]! B. Q3 {9 c6 ?1 U: Y$ L( Y

0 E) ^6 l0 g* Z! }, ?TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ `% ]* B4 p7 L' F  t/ P
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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5 `# G9 `0 t, |# Jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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$ {. v" Q% I4 I% DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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5 U$ t# v, C9 V& j9 \% n7 e0 m5 t; g[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 J9 w) v, O* @+ e0 Z) b1 v  f$ [ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! t2 L8 G' h+ V9 r# U: M5 |
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 4 l3 q$ C! t" q7 e' J; s9 d4 j: ^
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
  T/ G6 }% `2 P6 m0 F! o2 R6 i9 [嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 E7 C- s5 T" j: \" G7 K+ F% q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 y2 X. i: h( B+ v; R( ?
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% c& t! v7 f# r/ C% Xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: `: k6 V( p' Q7 z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" A% x5 i# T% O, S' S
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
3 O( }. f) J1 Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- p4 C" a1 Y0 j8 Jthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 V) \0 g- f7 j. H  W: d- Y! O; kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, d- U, N% F7 b% O( b% ]+ Vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 A0 |! x7 i. }; w
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
  c. |; b) a4 s  U4 Vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ D4 K' B* @* g8 ^- X) o. w
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 D& F, E* S/ W. K& ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# G, g, m. [& W4 |, ^2 xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! }( R; E; _& m% N6 {
30,000 new households will form in the province during
- _$ O+ q' D' U( i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; ?1 l. c9 I+ {! A, P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 m2 v1 k; o  Ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 s8 L6 A; f, z. _% Y- x% C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; H9 G* L' t& U
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: [% n6 H1 r1 [, \6 }2 jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 j( g% h+ L! v4 _$ p
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( ~1 W/ k6 e; G4 D* V7 |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 }6 ~; z! s/ b  a7 l7 O
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* V6 o) A( `. Qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 S8 C6 m6 {" N0 @: X7 I; Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 D- f6 X1 I# D7 z" R5 f' D4 Q1 zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: G, g/ T6 b' Y7 s% Z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 N# B/ a# r# I6 I' s# F0 v, Mtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( ?7 ~+ v. `! F+ I3 Y% ~unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 G0 r9 r" N" l3 @8 _( y& O* Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ q2 M2 W$ V2 h' Irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# V1 d7 I4 l; N( L
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 h! l6 p6 F- w- U
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 K- L5 X/ A: f8 G" Q" V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ `" X; P/ P3 F8 Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) h9 P. i4 a2 l# Z+ w+ X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 b- ^- ^. c. S' A1 q' m' Z: gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- n4 o. g* U, S4 B8 N8 A  r' |3 sAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( |% L+ T' C4 d3 h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) j( P) ~7 s8 h  K/ E) h) D; V
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( y. n- w8 B) G+ mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( S4 \7 f) h% ?. T# d. d/ ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 S6 J" P2 G3 A# ~& j1 Lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 ^+ u9 n$ I1 i: E+ dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# K' ]+ o7 _  J8 o# I6 lresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 q; x6 ^* G- O/ d; H
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ b  g4 l2 |( ~7 d! |* C0 d5 A/ dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 {% G- \, r! D; Q3 k' F& M
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& A3 m, m; m4 B- ]% gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 v) v9 H& _* }5 S; R5 m' M$ Sleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! B) c6 I3 I  O4 TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 9 e8 y  F( K: B6 X  `6 [
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子( {/ ?8 H3 `+ f7 {) V9 c# k
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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