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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / G( t" r; `1 Y) x" J$ V* R
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. - G/ H3 |7 n* b3 _7 f0 L& ~9 ?% C

% ^# @0 h1 B$ d1 N9 E"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 L- s& g4 h) S1 _' a4 J! L
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 D' c  u2 o: F! s' K% d
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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! A1 G& C0 `4 G  z8 yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: q; p. V7 w0 L$ ]7 b# P' T6 F
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, t! z5 L- ^: E! T4 Y
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( ^: |! `- S' |6 b! c
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  g  ^# }- d9 w) L! d跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

' z$ M  C1 X+ X& A. k. {) [很多人都回学校深造去了# P: ?( u* i/ o! M% E
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' D, G! r( e5 w( j  O. e+ L% e
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. K$ v0 c" P9 Dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 [8 X1 D( d8 h& Mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 \1 d, l* x% H( z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 A; z7 c: i9 U- R# V+ r
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 }5 \  n& l# v/ n5 O
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! @5 b' f: g* B. i  nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* G( W1 e- U2 c3 ]2 g; x
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 t6 T  i" h( P* R# w) ?/ S. T0 x% N7 kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 l3 m9 ?0 t3 Y  f
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# ?" X" v/ c* T) U' G/ G' m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" S- ^0 ?/ `0 x% bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" y0 N+ m1 ^9 ^2 U/ \- ?& O' l
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( N0 U$ c+ E3 w2 I! @+ L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; f8 ~/ p6 q+ M) p
30,000 new households will form in the province during# L4 v+ n+ i9 z! f  M" N  j  \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 K+ a/ |3 H6 K* i1 U& T7 s; n5 H0 Z4 n1 `
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 g: q( t0 t, ~8 Q: whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& _4 Z7 p1 n: |1 O; k+ H
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 M" `" @+ H; e& x9 F( Y- |has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) K! y$ R  W* C8 C
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' i4 c, N: k7 _0 ?' X: ]
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ T- e& T! R/ M4 u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 s* A' ]5 L; o7 h6 W) m: `
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 R5 U4 f/ ^) M* V: v  ~) W8 pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# k/ I) z& W7 |/ ?1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( U5 J9 B  B  Ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! e) _4 t& w' J, B9 j' l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* N# ?; P& I: ]. X. W; @$ f: S
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in' }5 z/ U" p4 m# l6 M
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# G% ]) b' T- f0 z. t) T- p+ l# @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 s! ~7 F, U/ l4 h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  n. V! J3 q; C) W/ Q; wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& R; r3 q( F6 L# U( b; n0 o# D
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 r/ `5 u# K7 jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' l! z1 \5 ]- \4 ~! Urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ l" a: v# I( A5 s  j4 n; y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 K2 e/ T! O: z' d* F# Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* j7 T2 q  Y0 n$ W: j& g& H. u' {
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ C8 j8 V/ m* Z' U1 i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, O2 O: F+ l' h( Y% h' E$ I
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- N. u4 Q1 j) F8 M/ M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! @3 z1 t; Y4 hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' f: j! y% g, M6 g  y" P8 c6 W( R7 `on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& x* s" G8 ^3 ^# XThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- n! N: M. p" ~; A; o& ?7 E. A, N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices) U1 V0 n' y' X0 U0 d6 ^
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 r: n' i* b3 l3 W5 t5 vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 ?2 D. e+ u% {% y- |+ mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! K* T% o: c: d3 }/ z  U7 R0 n/ d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: F2 X) y  ^3 ^6 h; G) X
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- s. v$ F3 F1 B7 H7 Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 i6 p% Z; t+ E, W7 w3 q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. * j. A3 [% I; T' ?) c/ h" ?
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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" U1 m, h7 i/ r0 b/ Z5 ~http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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