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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 w3 B! K2 I6 w
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: F5 d. p" S( m+ l) tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ _8 m4 K; `- |9 S4 ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 f7 K5 F, r4 ?1 i) E. z# n' B% O
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ S4 C( ~; t' R& g: x7 A& [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: b& R/ p5 j3 @; b+ o( |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 R! K$ j5 I4 H" N, B. \
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: C/ |1 e# i( p. w$ |may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" b0 U. _) n7 d6 t6 Z J) \ tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 @& y4 s+ I9 {
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ F* v! ]" I. L- H( T4 _ S- L5 Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: r% ~9 \8 }, l4 C- B# \
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ D$ F& X+ Y* q7 A1 A4 y- h
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 s9 C. z' U4 [8 x% Y1 c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ x( |7 b! `4 q30,000 new households will form in the province during
) X0 T' v+ t5 x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; m$ k1 k; R3 g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# T/ l# @ z8 D2 F3 I8 E3 W7 M1 B4 dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ R9 r) n1 @: U% V4 O1 i2 Xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! d) C6 v3 N, X
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& `6 m4 {+ N* V6 h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& n! M$ D3 c" g& E; v2 L5 [2 h
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
: c B [6 s: D9 E' h( e* j5 lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 k. a( ?9 Y0 Z2 Z2 |& i- B% I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ @6 b q) E: u. }; Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 _' P- R9 }0 h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, q6 h2 k$ D* |6 a# r3 `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: k( l& F! w: l' i% z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 F8 X' P1 Y0 N) Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 r- \! f0 ^/ w( y
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. a# H# u* F# M; F! c O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- X' S1 L( G* N8 e4 ?" E; X) grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* |" a4 E$ Q( X' U |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* G* v1 H' t2 M" M) i3 r
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 `1 ]# t3 r( ? ?" Nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) ~2 ^- G7 q% R2 r& {) A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 k' a/ f' G+ t' O8 U6 r5 I/ aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 L1 w8 o: a7 ?- D6 \! ]" Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% \% s* a7 A, P: z- B9 tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; e; ~' M7 f6 y0 i4 p: P) Y, N2 O" @( ?housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" D/ R; ~4 q5 |" H& G
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 Y# ]0 ~4 S" z; p7 I: w7 zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even! g6 x% i6 N' y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; V5 V# ~7 M' q; i- U Jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 n z- e, L3 y `) M% NThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 }% z, z6 D2 g+ y/ Gresale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ [% ?/ T8 |9 ?( l: \exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# R: \0 [4 D1 n; @5 r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ k+ v0 I, l& ]/ sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 k8 @ y0 O6 Y+ ^/ }4 `- ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ b( V5 L3 a2 t) A; Q$ D2 ?9 |9 j
leg down over 2009.
% p+ Z8 y; H( u1 x- @3 U V+ b* A, [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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