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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- g: Z; O+ X. _$ `& x" E% S
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 H0 S9 e- H- ~- C/ r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" b+ J. l& {8 x5 r: {; c' q3 E! a7 gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 n/ J5 n" Y8 b( Q4 k' c1 a' z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 A$ b! ?3 k. u+ Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 L6 R0 k& F* j! }3 N- i# Rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 B* K1 }0 R$ Z- N/ _7 ^$ Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- e9 X$ ?& B8 ^. \/ J
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: p" x; w {1 B8 L) G% {pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ Y6 d& o; Z& Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 j- Z- L& ~2 x& ]6 [/ p$ sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 @( T% _0 i i+ I2 Q+ w gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. Y; W9 y( o$ K1 Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ v. J+ |+ \$ ?% N" g* nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ N- [4 `3 w1 B
30,000 new households will form in the province during
! b: x' C( V1 p! w- b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ ]6 U/ f3 G5 i: v
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) N$ }, e2 r u) Ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ u& @5 r! O6 P) l$ {! u4 S- w: }% @
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 \% M, T& g' B8 u# z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 u( @ Z! z7 v" a2 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ s3 K2 C) b5 D u, k! m; g- i' H- [) Lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- Y4 Q. o8 i) Q" k1 U) ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ C$ ? E2 S2 _clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 P$ c( h8 h8 _# w+ K4 Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
: B0 B& ~3 A/ x# P. I; Q) u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 j3 {' G5 ~: b- @1 I5 M* d4 \sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( p* d l0 z5 `: Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 A, Y1 b- Z& J
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 l' n' j, U w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ _4 {4 r& M& k9 M' j4 e( f; J- bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. l$ s# E( u6 ^# ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ n2 z$ S& W% F0 e
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& \8 B7 b F) `3 @7 tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
~/ T& y. s; ~# F* gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' \$ H. o9 J9 {
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" _4 u: K8 {4 Q/ R! ^' ^The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( Q( z! {5 h% g" J$ d @8 lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 i. u* R8 a# x1 x0 i9 E9 e9 N9 B
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% Y8 h1 R$ h# r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ ?1 r# x D1 X* ], j! Erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( k% | Y2 I# ]. I/ _prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ I5 q2 U7 ^; a
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 M# n% a5 a, O) ~; Z5 C, y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. {* a5 I! m1 G' J( zThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
P, P# R1 C+ r1 d6 ~/ ]% aresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 T X9 u, f/ [7 ~8 Kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ Q1 f- P9 `+ ], M" @$ [( ^% w6 f3 q
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! u$ a0 J; s! M% w/ t& J7 F( S hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 \7 f( H2 X% s2 m2 ?8 G7 i% [
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! I4 f7 }- t4 m+ k0 v# { @
leg down over 2009.
9 a" y: N3 K( m6 [/ q$ _ y. ?; h0 n
# G8 _, [6 R4 v0 t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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