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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* ~' H! R" X" V. ~" {) r+ f2 I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& [* r* |3 O" e! e, B, P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% x& F" n* [) z. C$ d( x9 }are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! `) E0 d/ H! W- m. e" p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# Y- t1 N* K( F e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 C% F' p0 ]1 n* g8 l0 {# vfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 q& y' z' M/ _
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' _, X, i! y2 Z3 A9 y! ?5 i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ l* Q' [4 g1 x' t! Q6 N% `pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! V6 n9 t/ K: a1 X# v
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 t" ^( O: ^; o8 }; Z% I3 b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; i- ]' u. `% o" d' e. f6 T1 ~7 ?prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) ^+ d2 ~/ _7 Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) D8 M1 v* r# Q2 {" ^, Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ \& z( y1 u3 y. {( \$ q9 {30,000 new households will form in the province during
' ?, F% Q! z) E( M& s; T/ ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 ^# `" S2 i# j: t2 P1 R
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 Z" S9 e% H! x" o& \ b( |% shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: N4 b0 x: _# ^' `& ~: `; E1 W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 O( p3 s4 E6 j2 |- r) r5 Thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) G3 X$ @ @7 j6 j( j& s$ X2 D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals }9 K! Z' |8 @+ ~2 M, K
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* ?% `7 x+ J3 x9 Psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) D% _" h2 P5 s8 @
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- A. E9 ~$ [8 Kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 Q7 x" L( s* y; A' } x
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% p9 C1 U* a* V+ c$ w6 w7 k$ Xsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# B8 R+ t- S/ L
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; K7 Y, L* Q) m+ e) Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 X+ a) a; u1 f: ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 k6 U# o: Q' e6 V+ uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 `2 y% A( b+ W# O0 Arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 J; p! T1 x) w' B0 Wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 B; |( s% M- Z# p% nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 J- v6 c1 E7 `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. Q$ o+ y" [7 _3 z4 Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 Z5 I$ W: l# ?+ _+ L/ i6 nThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! k3 X( H$ O0 j5 c8 Yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# }5 J* |; s' y* y; Z$ w6 c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" Q/ }: Y" D, M; b2 J# ~5 Lhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; s( t! [: }7 b- T5 C% I5 N8 A0 E1 drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 J; T. P& R1 P+ y( f
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 S6 W( s# h) Y, Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! @7 h; i' z9 @( R& H. |3 ?0 yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 x6 j/ W2 ]' j. o% Y$ a s% aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 c4 J4 J3 Q; k9 h, Oresale price in February is evidence that past prices
: x8 a4 ^$ w! \/ j# ], mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' f5 O( Q' _1 Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 m7 e; @" W( r% | w' j2 r4 Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 C. A+ M2 @4 C* pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' L% |) R# x9 ^) G5 o% U( nleg down over 2009.2 Q( u1 _( a( m0 T' v v1 {& G+ u
2 {. J5 Y& J. i# P
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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