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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.: U9 n* y+ I' J3 B2 V
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. " I, q* U* |5 X6 n' Z9 D1 o( D0 M5 y& u

. v* m' e. @" W  _9 _! m9 M8 \The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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+ ?9 `2 z& s5 V6 R# l"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. - _& w2 u" \( ]& W8 Q
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ l" t0 N. l; n- _* g3 J) t
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' Q. o2 M) T% W- r' m9 K
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: k+ d- v! T% ]9 w+ b2 n  a+ Q

. n: b( |! a% Y# o- B7 gMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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5 H2 ^7 j* q( STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,4 w* M" I7 e: F7 X% f
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 z4 W  ~  u2 R1 p- C. R$ r 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
3 H/ ^8 g  Q$ L$ k- U跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了; o& R4 c: ^& X
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 O! X* H& g( v; {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  t6 ?# L( _3 @$ R7 ]7 fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 Z' e4 K, Q: u0 t+ K
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 X' g' c9 Q) z) M( u' Z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 }- C0 |1 y5 i' pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( t2 _- q( I' g! S! q1 w( E4 `from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 ^" G% _) J) s- m2 v5 ]the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ c5 S) _* A0 d; K& O4 j! p
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 k7 y- U9 R  v/ W1 ]' d
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 T# N6 P8 @2 u; H- ]' O
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" u6 R7 i& C5 O" E2 Jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ M1 r$ }; L9 X7 R# I8 _- h. K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 e4 q+ U+ E) o1 @2 S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
& k3 f% a: n3 D2 Z" _! ahomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# `0 L# M. i; u8 q: K) x' x30,000 new households will form in the province during
! O" }- |6 e' {- u2 x' F! C2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* i6 `$ a7 u: x& c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ X& f5 n6 F: U8 j" z1 P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% d" n  u. Z( K5 J: E+ z0 h
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ c2 l- J  c( L( J9 Fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( e6 K6 ]0 Z! j& @* S0 t' B
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 O, Z, G6 u- Y+ f$ Z1 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 N/ W% P, A) a, Ksales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. @0 E8 f2 O: L# T! W2 ^
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- D  T& Z. ]( W3 C, g' s- }
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ a4 |& _2 L+ ?) i1 t( p8 D; j  I9 x
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* Y" ~2 A* C2 q) e; O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 c  z) J! M" K$ Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) m1 k; |. ^& s' q7 l9 n2 t; {two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 ^1 a9 ]8 }  ^& u% i% Q5 ^# J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ }/ p/ r/ d$ s$ P; M$ g$ _
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- J- |% o, ~0 N1 @recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- t3 g( e3 {( D# V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 s9 _& n# n/ z8 G% Y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# |1 X. `) g- F+ a( p7 nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 D4 w4 h0 W, D- B9 N2 P( Wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% f1 {' ?2 H7 _, ], d/ o5 RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 M6 p5 |0 e' N2 t! pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# O+ ^- v7 r* k. k: f6 h5 wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
! h$ \8 r" m& Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: `3 i* i8 W9 S: J5 A4 C
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% z' @$ |7 s: |) r8 o
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: T/ Y- G9 ^2 n( R
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. k" t" S* N7 F- @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., H' A* e( s) \5 F( p
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 z+ O9 \* Z5 F* T" f) S, {5 ?7 Cresale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 D! z) q5 Y( d3 b6 x$ oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 ?( r; n- K" z( d- z% bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. o/ D1 V6 w" n% T8 q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 \% [' X' S$ @4 lAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ S6 g( p" Y; N2 T! r$ l  F' T
leg down over 2009.; C6 j! `/ v! k+ T6 Q+ s/ j) M+ T

, q  y/ V  m4 K6 F# G2 ]9 u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 V% v9 X* n7 |  W! G6 e7 u2 ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. : d& c$ {) N) a8 i# G4 N5 S
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" x5 F/ o5 z  N4 F

, J; N# ?  m. h' u! Z! Ghttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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- c, \7 P2 ^7 E% W9 S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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