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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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+ Y$ x4 V$ u2 O, _( n7 fTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / _8 y/ q+ g/ k& x: n/ e/ p  ]

- p' M, l  }1 Z; G0 Q* qThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 `6 a/ e% s; t+ G5 V; F* U

8 i  U  }- A2 e6 Y' STD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( |5 h2 Q$ N6 }) d/ ]: ~( C"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) E, M( _6 z# f2 B8 y
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) z% n; A6 `. G% [: s) W
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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; z1 g" _4 z2 n  s/ O2 Shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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- e  L' M9 Z$ \2 r& u9 Z% ~8 ZTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。8 x- W' Q. b) A0 Y9 g4 ?
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( [! X  R( r, f! r/ ]! w! t) e
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + q3 r' U! j  e& [' f1 i
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 J5 D7 V: n$ N, P7 s9 [% d( n' ~% U& L很多人都回学校深造去了
" U3 U, j5 l, q3 o* F7 N4 f嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
: l8 G2 G" i9 [: k- l) WWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 d% u9 n- P4 f3 V  oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. b2 @/ V0 N5 k9 m2 ?9 F: S+ }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ Z; o4 r; B8 e1 D% `2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- [: g% U8 F) ?
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) U) M  ]% Q0 G) S% N8 m0 {; e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 `) G) J& b5 v) \8 Zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' n; @! v0 q- p; |% q, V" wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 x& X: U! J( w5 h( ]
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# `+ P$ m- y! N* Q2 s0 {' q0 V
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# \2 c! M1 i! U, v7 O- N" y( s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( G9 z' c- }6 Y( k* X; @
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 J8 l1 p5 A0 b- }. _year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! G# ]: m2 G+ thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 M6 s% D1 j# z3 z# D  _30,000 new households will form in the province during9 r8 T+ [3 i8 P+ A
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 }+ a3 Z) R) A- ?1 O. Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 S7 [4 ]5 O/ d* u' j+ f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 o& z; z+ l7 \$ U3 y$ j, k* e* }during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 n/ `; g0 h. x2 B6 P7 fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
  Y5 f# z9 Z2 a: Ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& j& X+ {0 m% X- K' s+ Y( ]
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; ~3 \9 d! u- x3 D& P$ w
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# m7 x/ b8 O: j* J' ^+ E
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% c1 s( i7 V- Z7 N1 h4 q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- w. Z: j7 ~) ~; o0 F8 o
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 l1 C8 _) s0 h/ Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  |( d' H* m: L  b5 b
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ P( r+ B3 T3 s* K* T# `; _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) j- y" d) S9 A& G5 h; {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* W7 z6 L0 X& j& I+ C- x
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# x3 W1 a. }3 [- A! [$ Y7 e) y( b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 G! e$ }! t8 S6 Z1 n; hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) G+ B0 i! M$ ?) X% P; @* D
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories  z: f3 z$ t' Y5 v( j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled  C2 y. Y% n6 S; A! ?
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 |8 b. z6 l6 @- I% f$ H+ N& ZThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. ]7 T; \& |' r6 o$ _+ n2 H3 `9 e& w7 _boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 ^- ~, F; C9 u3 o  i- sAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
# i; A* ?1 w. L# C& X9 |housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 Y9 Y& J9 O) I! i+ frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( \+ [5 Y! `: E/ n3 M6 Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ \5 s  v+ K9 U" ^7 ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 R6 r$ n; O, o+ B) e5 f- W7 d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 J3 v0 F" J, d8 ^The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ m2 t, T" \/ H% y# R5 Wresale price in February is evidence that past prices3 R6 C: H  P: G1 U7 H% Q& }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" f  ]+ d0 S" G- @( shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. p0 Y- @: y. f5 Z: h0 Odeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 h9 J3 ^. s7 Z) _( v- hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& A8 u& P' W" `1 u* {" O& Z' Xleg down over 2009.- ]; M7 N8 t! P; l
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" s9 l- ]8 A  PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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" K! W: w; L( J+ @  ~1 i- J9 h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
# w0 A  L2 s7 c- j翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 a& H, ~+ Z8 g2 F: m

+ ~* u+ ]5 l# H5 O% F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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