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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% ]' w o4 s. ^( \/ BWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# p7 q1 s+ o: r& `: b6 ]7 P! Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ ]* D/ o( n& P Z5 _9 r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" L: X% W6 U1 {2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( V0 D( h. [7 Q" v9 tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
g0 ?3 b' o5 a/ wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ w, X2 e. ]$ t @: lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* F1 L; l- ]( Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 M5 {, ~- L- {2 u- O+ ^9 g) R
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 F1 A- n5 j( E
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 m1 i- ] x3 r& C- P( vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 i5 e) }; H9 V( w( A3 L" ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- F+ _ \: p& q% ~9 K: E% qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms, t7 v3 {- x( D6 n) ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
m# K5 l- ?' _% M30,000 new households will form in the province during% J4 w. `6 g" s4 q9 S1 |5 ~2 l& B4 ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: ]$ V s4 }6 c) `( M# I
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 N$ D# g8 r2 ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& M N5 l2 S/ d* g0 h
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* X" N+ ?) J: ]has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ @& f4 ]/ e/ V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! P E: v, E$ g# t+ s7 |) Cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 P0 S% v4 b8 d2 c) k9 {9 ~
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; x# m1 l8 v7 I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 s ~! G4 m( n" q7 M( P! |) e
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- [: S5 S: j! u p. E
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ S+ {7 G- [" C4 C& h6 \
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! F# b" X' q& ]* P/ r! bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 N1 `+ }- n1 ]. J- U, ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ w8 g$ _( ~$ ]" h8 uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 j# Q7 n3 }+ |( o+ m0 }- F: H& r9 Vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 X. L, d) m/ d/ Y/ Q0 b* Krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ }' w' j, j4 ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! a- j+ ^: g1 _6 V) w8 F- {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- G0 _% F/ b; m% I' D: K9 Aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled: b9 i6 R0 ? |$ J4 t
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 g% I1 E. S) |9 C+ J. NThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; D( c/ G3 Z5 Z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
/ t9 k# t1 s) n1 i& C: q0 QAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; ? ^( A' a" `: ?* hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 x1 A8 A3 R* {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ L8 z1 c+ \8 n y( `, U1 V
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 ^& B8 y g- R- W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 `! y, F- N" J% L9 k# son average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ l" s2 l" h* P$ Q2 E4 AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 A+ R" ^$ M, M; S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* P! @' [% C; K. I( P' Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ K9 {9 a r% Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& m0 w/ ^) G/ v$ S6 }0 u5 E+ F- a0 m/ Q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories, h; e z# F( a9 M; c
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%5 V# T( }1 R, U
leg down over 2009.
6 O* I! G7 @. }* b2 ^$ Q& a: I- B, ]$ i Y7 X" M
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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