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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! w% Q2 F! c9 E: b. t1 C" n7 z
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ( H0 N/ f" {( t3 f3 ~3 \8 |& N
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." c  M* x+ Q0 l, J& n/ Z
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.7 t2 F* q7 ]: ?& s+ e7 D6 f% k% r

( H& p4 I7 R& g1 l- |"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 ]  G- D" B5 b( {
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,' x  |" P) a8 v/ U) {1 U: q
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' @7 Q3 j; r' c, A6 x$ }! ~
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。& N" `" P! r& m& g, I

; ~: ]1 z5 y4 [5 U9 V0 o[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 V/ h5 m8 i" L9 O. [; O- R
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
' x0 G" V  ?! e/ E& H0 r* D" S* w2 `嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) \0 }% D7 D4 O+ ?3 C3 uWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) A' J3 Z1 |1 x# H$ @% }( V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  Y- s: i5 z5 {2 vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ ^% n& X1 s- c0 y* \) k
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 o2 k; ~7 o. Y& K4 m9 M+ m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ e7 @: o7 V2 ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 E4 V& R; Q) B7 E3 Qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 l. W! h8 M& W% P6 e9 r  _* r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' S+ g' E( l9 G( _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# P9 A2 u0 c8 s5 bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 Q8 |) W- E) a5 W6 h$ A7 j+ j+ r+ v! Ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 g0 {. ^& I; V/ h9 Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! f4 ^% i  X+ h. Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 t. t0 f! ~" N% S1 }7 r' \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 Q( n$ e! o9 b  h: w! G' Z5 @30,000 new households will form in the province during; f& U  V2 I4 o+ @7 k7 \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 L' \. P; Y. L) K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 N" c( J; `6 w. R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  H7 P: o2 a  o) j" K: v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# C& Y* d9 b' x9 o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ {- b$ h, G+ V$ \4 khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 L% \% N6 ~5 K/ Y/ qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& g# N& X" _3 b/ a" j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- c( |! m( m0 [  w/ k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 b" H: o+ W$ rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' V# ?# V) p# j; P3 i8 a- u
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" G  \, y4 c5 S" q2 v# R! l- Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
2 c9 u4 O4 j/ tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' f) ?8 X; E1 N! N( O+ s; z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 C0 }) D: ^4 Q, J6 M; ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) x3 Y8 e$ d! n( Punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  r3 `" [! f3 ^6 Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 U+ i" t5 d3 U- p+ d+ P$ N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 W  Q% n3 t4 T4 {6 dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories  M9 C; H2 U* ^8 p
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 S# P  l0 R4 [# c- V
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' n3 {3 c" k+ x  Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 I3 Y* r+ P9 ]  y# y5 Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( v; @, X1 p4 D6 V' A" RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! G$ t6 l* T. `) W8 z4 |3 G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% T9 I7 r/ [# M+ d/ O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 d% P% h6 B6 U1 q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ n3 ?0 U  A- z; @- a' Q1 o: t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* L* G0 }7 {4 k$ Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' @  E; [- j/ S  D- ?; s% ^The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' j& l- R9 }7 ?1 r8 [. F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ @. O4 R+ E& x) K' J& @
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' u8 M$ x" ^0 shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; h4 Q: o1 D' ~6 K- Q2 j! pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ [5 o  a8 z0 _8 m, h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ C7 ~" u+ B  [. ^3 Mleg down over 2009.
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3 e/ Y4 e" `$ |6 M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 F* v; F* d+ TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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4 n3 g# c( u& R/ W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- l0 E+ H0 P9 J, g# A# C  g翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" u6 }! j) ~5 I! c: }% f9 V$ B
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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