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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
1 S) U1 X* B4 b0 O" S4 {6 O1 uWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 l/ H* ]0 v3 y9 Q: p+ v9 h$ Vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 b5 N; M* S, L6 ~% k
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" z' I/ e8 t+ Q; g# S; r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% i/ S' s, r; l- d$ iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided u' W+ J" X* ~' U' J
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 @$ M, j+ K' n$ C- h% z4 Wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 Q) h% h! y9 f/ Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous, O' T0 O- `, y6 W c% [( w8 p$ u
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 i: y' u1 N7 W6 ~" ]( e: C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 d; C1 T U X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ b3 ] Q6 l5 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 P, A- ^1 @3 A3 Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ ?4 w4 x* A( b* ^' x2 k1 x8 I; ?5 Y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
R( q" U* Y' t$ W30,000 new households will form in the province during
) x' i A1 ^1 y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* i( S) C1 N4 s1 P5 HEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ B8 W( J( E( ~( r1 O1 U
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 Q( }. b+ Q3 O: z6 J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, N* F9 j; k2 y1 ^
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ d8 J% u; ~! ?" ~households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 |" B/ @6 n v( l; ^( L
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ E8 }9 Z. L4 Q/ ?. R) s% ^" isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! B- f# c0 S4 J7 r' B9 V7 F
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% P$ s1 b- b3 Z7 I8 u/ F" I% `excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& v9 a& ]: y5 b. M
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; t: k& r! x$ w3 E6 ^0 Bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' ~& p- S& o2 K2 z5 Y0 l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% b- r q5 S+ Q3 B/ U% vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 U4 q5 K4 n% P/ wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; c+ C( T1 u% W5 D5 ], V0 i4 {
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 U8 P1 m6 z B; w n" `1 ^4 crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ u5 }, x1 o5 a. C: Z4 H' |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# ]# l7 ?8 m& D3 a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. J- u" U6 |+ s8 l: d' ^of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: G6 X9 M) J3 u8 j6 [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 \& p! y( }" V) \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" Q0 B* @ B* `2 e2 w& D7 s; c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; U: S9 g- q/ p& K# _4 S
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan# A. b& |( N+ _- v. a
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 l* j& O+ A$ V4 Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( j3 S+ l. \2 V9 _5 J7 g
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' Z6 V8 Z5 c4 U4 i. L, J/ {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( I* Y; b% P( J$ Y; u# p. y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' v _* N/ T5 i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! X. P5 D: b5 L* t6 X
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* y" [ X# N+ c6 Q9 nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, ]6 i0 r5 h/ G! \. D, O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& u9 {. {0 e" o4 cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ T& I7 g+ A- KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: I' o# N% r4 t& H6 l' Bleg down over 2009.8 ~$ z, C( q) k& }; Z
: T0 a3 u+ A9 d2 g; a
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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