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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.  d1 S1 z. n6 b% K) O  n. `
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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& r9 C5 l/ i3 e' D3 `- EThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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# i  V7 a7 w4 H9 f2 x1 [- v- r"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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; U8 V3 C; t0 p/ X: d# `9 ]Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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! a7 W5 o- t9 s* cTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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' a0 ~" A/ [7 H$ Z9 x3 ]- t- |& j"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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3 Z& }  l  J0 sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 M& Z8 c: X' ?
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( m5 N  z) J9 l+ V& O/ S
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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2 S' N% M% F& e[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# Q* f8 P$ Z1 I  [6 y3 J" w( S! k跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 w/ m+ W+ h. A  K很多人都回学校深造去了
6 \6 J- U7 x8 P2 S% l2 w! T嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 L  H  |" T, }' Q4 I  U& mWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& c" \( F+ [, G. l) Q% R( {8 N
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* d7 Y& l$ V) F$ d& r8 N
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; d. ?* ^4 |7 m
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 z2 d+ _. f$ y7 Rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; k' q! [+ s; y/ Kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 `5 W: W) j& v/ `7 J- ^! @8 |the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- v7 W, G2 X* f( Z0 w4 p0 Zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' ~! o0 J8 X) k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& H: e  {# A. V  jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 B' K" b$ v* s. r" g9 N1 Z7 x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! v! ]8 m4 J' G& v; s+ _/ ]+ k: V
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  q9 U' G5 c& W- i4 H& s; \" O) X. R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* S5 n- h% M) ~: b+ Z1 L( h) `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 M0 |% l. F  D7 R$ f- V0 I* I
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 G8 D# r# r# Y! r2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; b4 e  ^5 E, D  t1 ~  q3 G  }9 T4 f
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
  a( E+ u8 Q+ L5 I. t7 i2 hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ R' N$ o; J0 K5 j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 l8 t5 V. F8 D3 D/ Y# i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 D5 F7 h8 j2 \- Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ }2 f+ i% W8 T0 d. r4 U- C
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 c9 w% Z# V7 Y/ W, [8 u; E
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 U6 b3 k- x! d
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 J. Y/ t2 A0 A" P0 Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) j3 M+ T0 f- ]- u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ J6 d  l' X& I) g4 `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 f* q- x6 r; A+ Q1 Cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ Q3 J/ K, l5 M
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- ~/ c8 h5 K; N* qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 P6 V; g2 ~" Lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 O+ r( {% h/ a, L' v
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ m8 ?$ ^% l% }& [6 a. ^2 i: rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ u% [: `$ \0 J! i, p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
  }: D( g) J( N. J3 K, Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' A4 ?4 k* [5 u! d# q: t* B
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* E8 l+ C$ t4 LThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ f; A3 E  ~' `. z0 c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 g  V* Q& T/ U
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 K& e6 `) u, H! }: Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 [1 q* y9 D8 ^: ]. d: }& ^relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! B8 U& w* K) y% w3 s- l
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 G4 \8 b) r1 t  Q3 Uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, f, D9 i- c: Y9 ?: A6 j( |% v# won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ F  [8 R1 w; e  z' l# |3 k/ p7 JThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 m9 u2 r! ~6 U% o2 T" M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; x" n) c$ V- z! p
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& Q$ a; F  D% _$ D3 uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ p+ R# ^7 G' ?# ^$ i9 b. a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# v# ?. O; X  J4 n& x0 O1 e
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ O' C6 y6 [4 L& ]( n+ g
leg down over 2009.
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+ P$ a- N+ q% F' Q# E& R+ ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% S$ E& Z" j1 G) n9 vAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' \' r4 f- g2 |9 X; s1 T翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子. N; t  M$ f' L8 k% }' n9 g
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments- V7 k3 |4 M% k
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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