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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ D* {" i* Z3 ^) a3 M, zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# H3 X) Y" I' ~" e
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- _8 D- V% N3 ]7 ]0 Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& P# _8 E; Y: w8 ~' } W" \0 w1 }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) E9 ?. S! z& `8 w& X8 N m- gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 c/ l. w* C+ C0 W- z$ f6 Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 |) }6 x% V1 i/ A7 }. R3 Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& [- S6 d. G; C5 T H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 ^: y8 ?0 c% C5 a" t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' y3 [; c& h+ b1 }) j3 P- Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 m& b0 E8 P7 Q" `3 ?, bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 P5 n+ C% w1 [5 i- V: ^6 ?
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! P: d8 {' t! \8 }" @( cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
l5 D8 y; a* ^: r4 v% `homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ U& j1 u5 M2 o30,000 new households will form in the province during- y: [7 I# ?& o5 b `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; q: a X H4 M# j; Z9 _; s7 L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 D/ K5 J$ B! `; P7 @, b: Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# {) R! \+ x0 B; ?$ Y. l, \; Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ a) H) O; X0 Q' ~$ F1 `: v0 p8 ?has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& d1 n" e1 e- w' _- vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& q. ~: ?1 ` Z! V. x% ^2 b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' f4 F9 M0 y3 ~7 M7 z# |3 Z* Asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% X9 ~5 H, Z2 G7 c. }) c- S& ^7 Cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# z( F+ C) U; o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" l4 E/ k! F7 q0 `3 v5 x. G2 a3 t5 [
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 v3 j5 a7 P8 v ^/ U2 p; O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 \3 L3 h1 j' f8 B+ X! N1 nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 J) H' f3 M. C3 ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: M# m, [5 L: }1 ]( ?% m% j" i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 d8 ~, ?6 M& C& yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 n2 e) n' [. J- S g3 t1 z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: Q6 L, ?- ?5 iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( f8 C7 s! V/ ~' R
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 v5 p2 s: s7 J5 `4 Mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; Z5 q/ g7 i, \% q K2 u, Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 x% O! Z6 J( x6 D3 A0 L2 iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 Z8 i0 O! c% N+ Z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. ?1 R! c4 s- e) d9 d0 x
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan- n: h1 R! ~4 e8 }3 [4 ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# z t0 @! P1 G* F5 A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 j; r7 q" M( [6 ?9 |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# _% U' R8 H( X) z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 w8 L) \" q4 W- H3 Con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% N5 x+ s; P' xThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ N) \+ y3 a" f/ _- s( N1 Q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 C6 q1 E9 u' i4 l" Bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* B, Q% L: O; }* {0 I3 A/ H, l
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 R0 \6 e1 z( p: j* @) W- Edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# b, E3 ]9 M6 J: b |; g: |
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 T+ m# o( d- e) P) Bleg down over 2009.9 X+ b% m" S6 k5 R
7 f* q7 A* f# \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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