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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' @/ }1 O" w9 x* h- UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
D' ?; C. ^5 p; Nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 a, q+ e& S" J7 Y1 C% X
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ f' _# H! q8 T) |) \8 Q2 n( [- k q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 ]2 l+ F5 V$ B% y3 h5 u2 iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 D6 r) ?+ E6 j& W- D- N3 J2 J
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 f6 A4 ]$ [3 B2 m0 E! y* g; i
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 c( B ^0 I- s1 Gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' L) u+ v, m) ~8 [7 K4 F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( P/ W9 ?7 m/ H* }0 V; r& V
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! H* I! R! m: u; ]8 `, r$ Q1 H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, t% F0 g' W$ N; s6 E
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% L/ ?# F+ r) U0 Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 P, `6 Y! M4 e. A" Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 x' i7 @( I2 d5 L# s2 I
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 e* m- |. A4 E7 p9 J$ O1 O2 v. d/ D2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) O+ `5 F8 ?% R7 z& ~
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ E3 Q$ b, i+ M" U$ ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# r0 i* G# r; N
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ s& j9 z. M. X5 j d, q8 `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, R- z- j% a% d: \7 v
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ f5 x& Z2 G3 T. T
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; j" Q$ k4 x3 o! {; rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 T# _; Y1 J9 g5 ^8 x1 Sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 a0 H. P% P' n# ~5 o: lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- t. g7 [' U9 F1 Y2 J1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 I7 X W" F+ \, ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) U/ D* W$ u/ W; R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 a. [4 N# d/ k* r0 k. Y v8 _" Etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 a9 r9 {* Y7 G+ }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: X) [9 @- C/ U. I- A' P# h3 E8 n/ s: H/ f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( T \: ?0 t9 Y; W
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: @$ _& u0 w) g& m g
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 C |# X/ |7 p$ J$ W3 N- Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- d. S1 o( j2 B# B, H* m
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- A1 O5 c$ {% V. s) i/ Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# Y0 K W Y" e9 O3 b9 F
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 D: U9 p9 f: B4 _+ q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 d. u2 a5 ] b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ Q7 h8 j1 t3 y- J
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, _4 a5 N8 ~4 ]# J; `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ S/ N$ W( z) ~3 T3 f' ?4 N. `
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 e# ^9 j6 m2 _7 x2 `( jthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; ^; M; O2 k* t% ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" V2 f" X, H7 y2 ?2 M6 h5 cThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# v; a0 ]' U1 a0 s! zresale price in February is evidence that past prices
( y3 k$ ]1 `) f9 r5 I$ f" uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( Y& I* Y( \/ `# K9 R$ Fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, h% L8 b" Q( J
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( v( N: [' g' I: a; b# XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 p! ]2 L3 A1 Z- Q U! x" Pleg down over 2009.
8 O8 }8 E# T6 X; t
2 \7 Y! C9 k; v4 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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