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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta9 K0 r+ M# x0 u' w7 f5 F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 [! x1 [) r6 ]" d5 N/ d* ?boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 L2 a, p- }5 g7 n$ c& f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; t, T0 r. k5 K. o9 A* O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ i7 Y4 E* ?% Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; ~! d7 Y5 N$ {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* R8 X7 g) z, i& A: K& X) h3 {" Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 F& C% O; j8 [6 c8 n8 j. g* C4 E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous" Z0 P0 G. l. y# x, R: J9 B1 C2 G
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- ?$ f7 A3 H) a: R
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% Z0 ?' |, Z, ^, P, ~/ @) b3 Sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 ?/ c5 a) }6 B% l
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( A) y9 S* W, U nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 ?6 n6 t& f2 G& s1 P9 hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 k, R+ { U6 D9 ]4 z6 t30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ _) j1 u( S6 p) j% i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! [8 ]/ I& ]3 d4 Q% CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 \/ L8 N1 Q; t& C4 Q O! ?
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% N$ I S; E: C% R4 nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 D% h- Y# _* W5 S: z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 E" V$ B) \: E: d9 \1 c
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 C# u+ C% ~# K+ mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ P1 a3 M* ~; c4 G
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 A) I: w3 S4 k, X; B3 r% ]' I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( i' |( w5 \, T; ?( g$ Oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* u0 I1 E, e% N: t! u4 H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ G0 M) U7 f0 v: H8 {" A5 Fsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 A! r/ k9 R4 O( Y- p* W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- O5 G' H7 o+ H( M- O8 J B
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 n. p# o- M0 _1 T: B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& G/ @4 I% V2 ]- P. V" Y. S
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' ^' j7 a3 G( v# I% ?& d
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ s& f3 {7 N B6 w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# n9 O! z, ^2 L. l( v' ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! B B5 v# g( W+ a! I0 Eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled v9 F+ W# U& y* w
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. ?6 \' `9 H0 u1 a D: G. eThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
t9 `9 H, r% y; lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! S( n1 a* S L$ t% a
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan9 |# m, }7 i [" ^
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 `! ^1 ~- a6 V2 H: {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 d4 f# [+ P- b6 }
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% s. k; H$ Y% W/ o. C) kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 y: I6 _( W+ J: I {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' @' d( x) L: O5 L
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 W3 Z, W+ Z; D+ J" ~' B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices& p( M: q1 @3 p8 U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 X) M4 i1 j6 H, c9 G" j
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) _* G) l: w& X/ X, g8 {5 U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! c9 l8 f$ q, n# Q$ M3 v% v: X* Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 t1 z3 ?) B7 J1 m" {leg down over 2009.
7 X3 @% z/ R; N& }# J; ~7 K+ H4 z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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