埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2652|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
6 i4 W9 m- f0 f9 P8 C
' ?4 A# l9 @0 \( `0 kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
6 S0 t2 N2 S' t9 q4 ], ^* K5 C2 L  F2 @2 ?
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / q/ X% d( q) g& d7 d, z- ?

. ^0 w4 Y8 h2 w"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
# z; G& }1 ~+ |8 I- _  a7 a
4 x" o- p0 s$ d+ [7 r* iNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- m+ Q7 D- j2 V8 x( i9 Y7 b

+ ~3 y4 O- H  rTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
  a4 V9 j8 T4 B  r" R8 N: |0 K/ |4 ~) m. E2 i- g
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
* n4 k; M; S* Q+ I) A$ `6 g. P; o/ M0 R5 P% q: a- y7 q0 f
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 }/ }" d. {" B1 P
# f0 |# ^/ G8 M; T! [! p3 z6 X3 G
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. " l; S8 n( `+ U, l
6 ?* X; W! a3 z5 A9 Q  H( J% w
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

1 r5 H0 t2 J  s, |$ `- W9 S( a" g0 C& p+ q4 u$ l1 y9 U
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,& V4 l, ^% f' D2 d  s+ D

: ?& @/ K- ~' H/ n0 }[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 C  g+ Y7 v: M  n
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
( h# C, T/ b, q) f8 r; N+ k1 N& e& m+ u  ]
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 5 R) u  Q9 c5 E; J# D
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( h, L7 I' R' r) i8 L9 \1 D; L很多人都回学校深造去了
" V1 U+ p! S" G. C* k嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ q( X) D. t( _- n& w! F% Y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' u4 d9 H. y+ e) v1 Q$ A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  g/ C3 B) q" y4 o5 M2 d" Uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 U) f8 ]" E: E2 h- R+ h
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 i: w& A% c) T% y7 n: kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* E$ G# J& X/ s: zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ r' l# ?, a* h6 S
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 j9 g% G' D+ A/ Y% E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 W- Y0 E% W& A  Wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 R: {2 V; M! ]. Q8 l: f6 J  D
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% ^" b. O7 O9 ~$ S: W9 s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# j' |! N2 w6 u
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this% p$ P- g  H4 j% J; p& H: \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ v* `+ m0 g8 U; D% u/ }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* Z6 Q1 Q$ C  }, K, o! G6 S
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& G- S( J( u. c" M" k) s$ R6 g2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# e" @* J0 R2 x0 aEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 B) ^3 Z6 l3 K$ i. ?- O, ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ Z9 Z7 J  S! L( }: R
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 j% c/ R: t( a1 L2 q. y" @
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ d+ k( N0 K  F) Zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 @+ |' c1 i0 [0 O, W4 p+ E7 h" P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 V! M9 F  d! }" v8 Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 h) @7 u+ R8 p/ g6 P$ Mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. v: b: V& P3 Y5 G3 y( t( v0 G' yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 `$ g' G6 G% D- x8 f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- e& |5 G& v) A1 M. Asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! Q, u: D" [& _+ x, E3 G2 Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 Q, s0 h8 H4 x5 K9 m' G5 Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- _' \1 I" f4 t0 U( C: \6 E- u0 Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
* X* r4 f( |' q( q) tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; n- v" N$ d5 W- ?: h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# W5 e! g. A. X( y4 Qresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' A% H' z) S+ `" Q+ Imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" K6 P& Q( v4 D, Z4 {: c+ U, ]of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 Y! [1 r! \5 Erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 {: T7 W, e4 |9 `1 {
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' e! W) ^  H5 H0 Q  C* w9 hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." }2 D; B- g2 w9 S+ H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ z  a" n' a; A: ?! }( I2 ~7 Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& c$ z+ V- d3 p! ~3 z* N- |3 brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" l# _! r2 t- Z6 H; }/ ^
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 y" R- Q; `9 n0 M5 p; U' ~
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, t. i% u, `1 o) l. Q( w& ]4 w5 R4 Ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( |7 L3 u4 i; A. \. I9 O4 R! GThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; \% F* [/ o0 R) m# r& G, Y  A6 }resale price in February is evidence that past prices" ]0 P$ z& U, J( {/ c. l: n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 n2 q! ~! h: s! S5 ?" vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' }0 L! `( D3 Z9 t2 Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 v. t2 k3 Z4 ?2 fAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 U7 m/ _5 f1 E. k4 b, `
leg down over 2009.  ]# ]2 ]$ A7 @0 o" o% b2 L
7 s/ C1 r& c0 v$ y) a6 q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 u. _$ T# F& s4 X6 e9 x
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

2 F3 n& m% V  M$ n+ t: C" y5 J' o) @8 P& u. ^9 G% U
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 k  F6 Y2 D9 D( ~1 k4 i% I. H翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子. U( k; H# q# U9 d5 w

$ Z6 H. g9 o+ H9 jhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ P7 }+ k, j+ @( i) E4 b
) p. C9 c* w$ o/ H
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-23 08:21 , Processed in 0.166278 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表