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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta; ~+ X- U Z c
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 b, W3 b5 X- S1 n. q% I! ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% I7 m. M" \' H
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 X9 N7 y8 C4 c+ H. c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) r% g, u. Z8 t7 x1 K# s
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; E' \7 O. s9 g+ n% y' ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: H6 T A: V) e& P t% @% `% s
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 [5 ~- ~# f+ a* O" B6 [
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% E: w4 n- C* X( u; n7 }4 _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# w# J7 z9 @, z( m. ]precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! A |9 _ C- O- X% n/ f' S5 J
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; C$ j2 E8 i% X0 u4 s7 g6 g
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* y* N" M) v- x# n: k! w$ a* Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ s, p+ @% H4 p0 |" S" u% j/ H) i' l, O8 \
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# y' F) f& u% ]/ U& c- ?30,000 new households will form in the province during
* u! k; U# M8 y: h# o2 i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# B# x0 }; N2 C" e
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 `0 `# {2 |! B/ j9 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& K* V" I7 c1 s. mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( ]" w4 W" V; \& ?has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% g$ _, C4 F8 I$ y8 b+ x) n
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ [+ c1 E4 B7 Z$ j. p+ i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, a3 B( |" _/ |% ]. i: isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) j8 G! r" ?' K( E2 Jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* g2 k1 A; K. w: qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 Y, l5 Z, G. @& G U3 B
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! ?- z: T4 h" D/ ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% b) t U+ b8 {# ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ g6 i+ f6 B8 C6 y6 t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! v) f5 W7 I( K/ S/ v4 `3 t
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 I! d! C3 `, P3 T$ c
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 R) S! A# |5 C+ K0 b! _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 V4 z. H6 P9 n* ~* v4 V( k/ P3 Y1 cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ f2 ^: F: N( E* ]1 `( E% Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( g" N/ c, A7 P# Z$ n4 {! ?
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 ^3 B5 P( R- N5 m4 j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 i: u l# J+ a, j0 W
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
W/ q# W2 Z& eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 x- c2 k1 Y( N' \: S
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
; n* X2 u" h, i* H1 Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ i! z! ^. Z, i3 Y! M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ f! U+ y% T/ O% p" O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 j7 k. ]* x8 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* D: e5 A3 j& c$ |1 Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 B- U, H* k9 x+ F8 TThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- S2 s: ?- Y9 G( h, Q0 o: ^8 W4 eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
( l+ P- A: y! jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ ^% ~1 M4 J& m
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: r- B* @( g. z% w* D
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& ~2 r% t# z4 \3 w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: a1 H: G& _. h
leg down over 2009.
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9 V" p' x0 Y# _9 d9 `+ \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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