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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 I. Y* {3 g7 | ^: S8 j1 O: T
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ V9 ^; e1 c3 o
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) V' Z1 i' e6 T( P. S8 u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# Y( S. s% Z8 R3 y% F2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& I4 {7 m0 x7 W5 q! ~formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 E; F0 q* G5 u; \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 b* t; Z9 B& H8 y" A' A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 W/ b# w1 n ?; I( i, D, |may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 ]* u0 E7 K% V0 t! M9 @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! T1 c! \9 h0 C: N2 t' J% S" Y; }precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; }3 F& I+ _, S# p0 y3 M
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: G/ J* i+ k) L
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* A9 x0 K2 c' B% l, g" E0 ?
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ e7 m" c* N& o5 l9 i; \* ]* {, hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ _8 I* q# O c# p2 X8 i; k3 E30,000 new households will form in the province during' B* R0 L# R/ N: T5 g! U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 g& f# l5 F' ?9 ^1 @
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ O+ U2 ?1 h# f4 D6 N" {
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 a8 c+ g E; Y" ]/ ^
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. H# Z+ J, u9 D" E
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 X/ w7 C0 M% H. Zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" \* w" m# E+ |( r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ f- ~9 O" S Y" g! }! q. j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& r$ `1 J" D1 y' i5 I) hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 W: p/ Q% [: Z K" h# C
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 O. l+ t3 B! E5 Q4 ^, P+ g D. N \1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, j7 w* F# c a% u$ E/ w
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ q( M& }5 P ]$ @* Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 F! S1 w- L c- Gtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) W' C5 {8 j* j! Y( \# w/ z. k
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. \+ i! S4 @8 u: Q3 B- ^- L* n
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 m0 A0 j1 D* ] p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 V' @3 U; D A6 U4 n
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; {2 x5 n+ |" `2 N, T Omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" U- ~1 [. i9 s1 T
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 {( D$ R! ]4 Z L, Qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 E q3 Y2 d( O/ }4 Y+ _% F
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- q. @# H" J/ l# ^! S5 Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& k$ U! A( \4 m8 f5 E/ u# ^Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 n7 B5 R1 y6 l9 Ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& o5 ? B ]' k- `. Wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
D1 f ]; L9 T0 t* s* bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 P. B% |( C6 g3 Wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 V. ^( V* j% T) a* \$ i
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. k; ~& d4 v# Y2 @9 I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" O% d* ~" N& C
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 \2 P" S+ m3 c( v4 E& f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove p6 F0 C' q! P {+ c, X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- t' U1 ^. p9 X p9 ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ X: Y, T; M( v1 _$ c
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%5 ~( K: |, j* I$ ]% K5 ^1 H* M$ s
leg down over 2009.! y) v1 x& g$ z$ Z! Q
) s1 w. F3 I2 L7 S5 s
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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