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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( s) H- v# W" I- D! q/ {! N

* I9 L, ^, L8 ]& D+ N: ?  h/ y" k; uTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ) R0 y: j& Z/ B
! t0 j" G8 M1 x1 J- b
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . @+ a8 a( n3 D& |. [

( G4 ]: k) l7 V. K; w"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000." M7 i8 p3 r; {( Q" q

& o3 @6 d. @! E! d"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
) n  ]" l0 i: Z' A, ?9 S
  `9 c; z3 O( {* _# K; }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
* S4 u3 |2 X( E0 D$ E% Y
: r- o& ~, Y) X0 M) A2 \2 h4 v: gMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 t0 U9 A8 i  e; `6 V! Whttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,# Y! ~/ M- S; K* n

5 R- a/ z0 @* J" j( i[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。) H0 Q' _% K7 q% E
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
2 U6 u; c# M: I0 `跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

) j+ z( w) r% K很多人都回学校深造去了$ y6 s  p1 |, p+ M3 Z. L. N
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( |8 q. q* _. _8 n' ~6 V: {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 X5 m- N  {3 z" Gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 C" {- A6 k# x6 J+ X
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, B3 @  G; d( b' ~* t
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; K: e) d9 k& ?  i! cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# J6 w" p6 a  j3 [8 d+ N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* ^% D: e% |4 M0 F7 l6 qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% \& `6 ?; R! R# |  k) v- N7 A1 Tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ m* w- X$ {" Rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% N& @  J+ E) oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# V3 z* J  K3 t% Kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* g+ u9 a% n  E7 @8 {
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" `; r) E3 q& [- L6 W+ o$ O7 ^0 v* I% d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: W+ u+ @. S# F5 ~1 \' U+ H9 e) ]1 ~
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& n. k$ a5 g* }6 F  [% G8 ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during, H0 Y4 z6 i: }5 `* g$ M* \  O
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* v) m- _# p! P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: {7 G# B) h; d. c9 x$ \homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ r4 o( p1 P% ]; `7 a" @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 @4 T0 L+ H/ s9 h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 d! @& e: d5 u4 w# D4 S7 S% O* zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 r8 [( q8 J& G2 P* f5 l* U1 u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 |2 u3 \# ?3 o3 T6 J: n5 R
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% ^6 G2 n: {1 ?5 o, \( mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 P9 {: j# I9 eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' Q7 l  y. s* `& G5 R$ Z% F+ i" g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 a- H7 y& M" `0 F% {8 X4 gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( f/ G0 s, j/ f+ ]# rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 y" D2 E$ L# \9 |+ j
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 G1 Q5 ~* l5 F9 S9 v" }& x! f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 p$ E2 D9 U7 a+ M3 n$ R+ `1 yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! L: v" ?9 A' {$ [1 y/ X4 i9 S
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; U1 R- C. W. S$ A5 h9 x5 @5 y9 Y
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. M4 N5 y0 a1 I6 E8 W0 S/ g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 f/ }4 A# d* i8 @! ^8 O) `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 b- P6 }6 z+ f8 n/ Arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& r* S- H* W! |, J' W0 u. fThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 x- F0 a9 E8 v$ T  vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: T: D& t/ W2 P1 s: H% [
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& d' ^+ S5 X! P& `! k' I% p% V. c
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 X+ Y1 l, r8 n3 s) o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 [% W4 \: {/ l7 m9 xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 o7 h5 ~2 b( e1 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 g2 Q: C' A/ N- [: G* q& |) |: Aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( V# \+ m! K2 t" f# NThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* e7 j5 C+ Y& P) u# z- s5 a, @resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# W9 h: }( {- Z) ]  x" o% i, dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 W2 x; R0 R+ ^! `/ H& R6 ^# Uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: d( C& F& ]- G5 Kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 ]( K8 ~/ U0 qAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: d& j; B! b  g0 Y5 gleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 }+ l3 a7 p# ~5 B  e' ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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7 j  L8 H4 T4 z4 l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. C2 ]& L) u; S  y- @翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" k3 T* Z. q' |( `4 x

- ?, p+ J  a5 s; y/ C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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