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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 {4 l n7 f- p& Y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, _# @% W' ~9 N$ T+ W0 A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ K/ u# [* \- d% q- I7 V
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' V% J5 V1 ?2 v5 E0 w/ \; T/ k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ @# }3 p6 I% M# n1 o+ P" I7 ~formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* O# x1 b# z! K/ Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 [) S3 c( b0 I* U3 q: athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 W# _& F- H V0 G$ Zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: Y6 h/ P9 O6 b4 x* Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 E- N: F( K/ L. uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* m& M% Z) @6 j
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ h$ M& X6 V4 }/ @- |1 }7 N" ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, s$ O! ] M. Q: ~, q# l7 {: Fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- e4 }, E5 W N5 [- L) ]homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& m# L$ V9 ?7 X7 S) c30,000 new households will form in the province during
# o. `% R0 t# Q, X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ U: C6 j( u" H9 A) Q- b5 l
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 h% I# s# _! Y8 y% l6 X0 ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 H# Q: R& c( z' u2 Oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! ^- K9 f/ n$ ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% [7 u- Y0 p2 T4 j9 q5 thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- Z5 N2 B6 g: w t2 p$ G! C
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 |2 Y4 J4 M7 S- }- Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) t* V% L/ T; Q& y4 ^& o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- ]0 w* W# ~/ u0 q8 c: H+ p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 J$ f, I/ _6 K9 ]0 u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& p9 H8 `/ \$ N& I7 P& wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 Y+ J3 c! f& }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 a. A+ m& L' D$ @4 Otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 y/ ~ d9 c- v# bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: D7 Y6 S) z0 {unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ y) r: s. @2 e* Y' F5 j0 t: w% O$ Trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' j- P. p2 X& [6 u/ l5 q' ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 S% O' v9 [ L7 Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 P. n3 |9 ]4 ~5 @) s4 }% D
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- r* D. T: e$ q- N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 i" n5 u* W& e; X. KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 _; l3 N& q: N6 ~7 I$ rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 I9 e% h% L, @ nAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 q! Q/ K) a# i1 ?( [+ k6 ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' w5 p: z6 I* {, p5 u" jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
D d- |, f$ b V0 W7 [% l, jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even& b: C/ u. n, I" V6 L7 E
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 Y$ }! U2 `5 T1 q: N3 T1 [on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ G% n/ T! m' Z, ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 t: w& O' {8 Q; V0 Tresale price in February is evidence that past prices
$ t( N: T, q9 e6 Cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' {. \1 A1 o9 F; {( lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 V+ m7 K! H: z1 I( a. q# `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ b" U) ~2 G5 O! F/ T; f9 KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 B) L+ s9 u6 \0 Nleg down over 2009.
0 M) {! G5 H8 g% J; A, q7 f; U3 ]
# F# ?; x$ ^& M5 [1 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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