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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics., l3 e+ C6 O/ c/ q6 H/ {' t$ ?* k# [
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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7 v8 ~7 l- ~& L3 |# I: R" \4 L5 eNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.: k4 R% N2 `& [7 c  r

6 k1 s2 {) a! D6 y- {2 U" @TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' P0 O9 E) c& t
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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" M$ i; Y9 d# PMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.   X5 N% z3 P" ^! @& J& _
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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+ K) p* M, Q5 W, {+ u5 UTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% C: Y1 O2 O5 r" s1 F 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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5 `2 X* a; v4 s2 p7 F[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / J& N; C. x: `& w' q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: O' Z2 \0 ~1 V% |9 |$ H2 G$ g. F很多人都回学校深造去了
& J- B* o* Z2 A. f: D嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 a( c* X, r2 e7 O$ ^  C5 G1 }7 O
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! S( B: |7 g2 c' T5 Z4 h0 r2 ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ o) I( i7 v/ n! Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ ?9 F/ D$ o' c1 u$ p- e' K% P2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, y5 [0 i" F% M) jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 Z- q  U5 q8 g) I* ^% \  Ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; l" U3 l$ J" g9 C6 {& D7 X
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. ^/ O: Y; ~2 h2 j: Y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 D% F+ P2 t6 k- n: gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% D3 R; B; S* y6 ~( H3 b' z1 X
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 X% \' ]3 ^& L1 o) ^; I( @( ~2 j
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ Z& U+ S2 G' U& n: a8 a, ?  tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- c+ S6 |8 s# P/ f3 E9 jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
& M* {; w* Y) g3 S( ?. M0 qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; v& v9 `# Y9 V9 H6 {- T30,000 new households will form in the province during) Y& o2 W  M: w5 }8 I+ B" b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) [2 ]4 X1 f5 S# j. h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( }5 W: C6 Z# t' y& h+ uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* c& Y4 G# J, P% ]0 Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% I* I) P/ _9 d  c, C( g) S
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ T+ B/ ?% }! }7 t) ?$ }8 D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) l0 f8 v/ O7 R) Fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- o# ^- m9 S; y& ]$ e/ s0 Bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 w, U# u. _" {* C
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 j1 v5 x; O4 L7 i
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& J# Z) R6 v+ F8 U+ W3 a6 s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; \9 W4 K$ u- {  [sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! _; e4 ~# }+ _
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% N+ k# I' [$ s0 }$ Q% otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# B4 W* A: H7 y$ _, q) xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; P( P2 F' x( ^, h5 A+ ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" a& L, {( ~2 p; M& crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 k3 h2 N8 s2 D! d! Y6 r9 z& G; J+ wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 c: s: f2 A- \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ T% @- C# S1 Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 C- O3 l$ v# V8 T1 F) ^/ E8 `& j* v) irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 S3 Y( P6 I- Q9 W+ R! Y5 Q. _, g! FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ R* Y0 t( f8 `  S$ E; @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 N6 p! W5 j! I/ m' E; @  x) e3 cAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 v. d. t3 b; S0 e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% m5 v% x) ], T! {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 C# v0 c' T2 j# ?0 v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even% d& e& l7 Z3 m- z) O# ]8 k# h
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) P5 o5 c# p1 {* r/ t) Oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ L8 Y6 n/ B: E2 |$ w1 i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, d+ n/ t' h3 N2 O# C. [6 X' a, Mresale price in February is evidence that past prices& d! h( g2 _1 N1 d9 {, Q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ [" n& J& k5 T& U+ |$ S" Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 b( d/ ]( T; I* L( Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ g9 b7 f1 |/ P( X7 N$ b
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, _2 R- Z1 V6 ^$ r6 H+ x
leg down over 2009.
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8 f1 S# U/ M% M2 @# F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 f6 r2 j1 L( ?+ r/ p7 i: P6 j9 [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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9 ?3 M/ n) z/ ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 p: w: Y& m; |$ j  n
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子/ N4 u* x* M3 F  J
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 ?% ?4 v* z* t' h0 d& }

) c( `3 s! q) `4 {5 [  l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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