ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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9 C9 B& @8 M. J, Z2 h4 VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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7 ]/ W7 u' O- s8 e"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

; y  M& A0 @5 I" t; |( DNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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; m; A. s3 Z& v/ G4 P  h( wTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

3 Q1 q0 E8 D: h( C1 a( D* ~"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% P& H. [2 e7 nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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3 s& S3 L3 A% Q' TTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- a/ K( b7 s1 G' ^; n# l. f+ g( O跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
1 _/ P* ^+ Z( D+ `: |9 ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 ~& m, i- }# E# |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ j1 G- w6 f2 w/ M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( j) p# Y, ~2 _- x* Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 L+ Y, O) i7 L" q. ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 t% ?" s* c8 f- A, u. ~may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, t, C) A2 y+ z# Y9 j0 vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& M# ?" Y: \  d5 M: G2 R' f0 Cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ ?( t  h+ {$ J' Z  J' \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! i* m2 h, N! {+ {' Q30,000 new households will form in the province during
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- T; f) A8 m: d( d8 R6 Z6 QEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' F! P) }" O( ^; a8 s  `/ fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" r# X# l- `5 t. G/ q/ M3 j& hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 g' x0 d; s3 J4 e0 B# G4 ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  P; `, \4 d3 T; T9 Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ p2 ^! X8 z/ n( V; X* ?$ E+ Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; ~8 Q8 U. ]+ a1 d$ i7 }; c; v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ }; B/ V& Y2 Dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 E& w' {! L9 P  ?" J$ W6 s) ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& U/ P* p; X+ P& M7 Qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 a$ T4 l' R* v2 L" O# @0 D$ rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 S1 D2 q7 _0 ?" J3 `) kAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 e- @. L" q( M3 r# }0 Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# e$ B  R: ?) Z, \# M: @7 e0 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 Q/ ~" T7 |- ?4 o! Q* E6 a9 G' c  Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 z# h- J0 G! J4 Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! x; ?$ q/ u- g0 v2 T9 Adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 g# S; h/ }% q/ c5 N7 B0 T9 CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.
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7 p- ?. ]. I1 `9 l/ v' k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
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9 N1 R5 b1 j3 n9 c6 t/ T2 C$ u4 ]http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing