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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 }# Q+ w2 O2 M: [Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 J% J- z. z5 ?; Bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' V }! G; M+ p2 q4 Q# S0 o
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% D: n1 T$ ]; G: W2 F
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 @* T7 R6 H3 B% E+ G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 j" V% Q+ K* t) O
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- d, z6 N4 B' f: x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* m( I% a' d& Imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 ?* {0 p, \6 h8 r9 O% U
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. _/ z+ d) O) V7 F- r2 _7 \. `' v; |
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# Z9 L3 g5 ?" m* a6 L+ S' {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# W7 G6 W% q2 b5 i9 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: b% r+ J& Y1 V/ b! myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 w t: |- c+ b& H) @: Ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( K" ?2 S$ d& A# {- R: V7 |9 L30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 _: P7 x F2 W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! v8 U1 b9 c0 b5 V" V. s! V, wEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! P" \" f# m7 N# ~% J& m4 R$ J
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ V: d4 \: ~/ O3 k+ gduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ B5 \, u* L6 b+ A# q9 R/ Mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 H0 Q! d, l `1 R! g: ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 \9 K: w: Z5 I. _7 {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% b* }% U$ a: p: ~% U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; H8 R+ u z" A. }: X* F7 K% q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: Q# Z: x* V$ R- v! zexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; x5 x3 |5 U) U5 i- x l
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 \/ Z* V q x3 tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: ]; c7 k" U; x) e5 T2 G
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; \: N D+ Q {
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# L. V( [3 E5 P4 }! `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' g/ ^" z; E* J& d- N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- ^: y" @7 T" e7 @6 A/ E' qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 l4 b* H% }2 K/ ?( V+ W5 C
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 ~- W! T& f8 x# k/ B( k8 wmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& H- ]" G, V" t# {' G. Y! Mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 c& E+ ]# l' ^0 D {3 Prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. s- Q2 F7 \+ b( p4 ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- P4 c0 R9 |0 g/ n6 C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& t& b2 g7 j. u! xAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan4 t7 g& |* L# |3 h- K" e$ S
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; y) J3 Z+ f+ i7 j% p# v
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 a" a! I& i; r' E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 [1 {; z6 h; C0 X9 d7 athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( ?* f8 E% x* R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. h) ~& {5 K8 a
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 a& ^9 D K: {- u/ E! H7 eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, ?8 Q- o" h0 s/ yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! K L6 i- w. nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ T1 e' ~1 ?5 O/ m1 W. H% e, G
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ H2 S1 c( b! i0 C) o% U# gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 U& v0 V G# L1 F3 @5 Vleg down over 2009.1 J& D# w6 }& k: ~ Y
8 U+ k, Y( x, V# j/ }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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