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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
) j# e+ p4 O- `! D1 ^9 E& H. q. xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ }. R' F% o" p" u9 Hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 N& F+ x4 n. a; X7 oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( X! Y: _4 H% F1 D* H+ g
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 j- { e. c4 T W9 V+ I X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: f0 b+ L; u" Wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 r9 z+ g* |$ uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& p) ] [! R$ R N/ g. j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 k) s8 u9 n% X' N w/ F5 O% Xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' ~( T5 r& G- c" k6 \" H( dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 Q0 I4 r P4 u, @3 }8 g9 c0 \
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; Y4 o3 V+ s0 `7 p4 P e
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 o# _ K) C! tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ j' t ~# y; R9 _3 j+ z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; i) q! J3 c; M( V, L0 I6 _8 [- O& A
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, ~" {' {# B$ _& G/ L7 [2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- Q% [1 n5 p' x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) q" s2 J2 F! n- B' g, E
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 k% H( s4 Z( U5 S
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# p( c3 `+ @) q/ e, L; V$ F1 [7 S3 X
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 s- `8 B5 f5 a4 l- s; X! K6 x
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 A V! {. X$ a" R% a, a6 ], Rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ t! g" N) U7 z/ M7 Y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% U o) j, D# u% o2 ~7 b4 Kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 W; D4 q |' J6 M4 _3 }) B
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 ~: `+ ]$ y; p, Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 T3 ?; W+ Z) m; a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ i+ e' u; V( Y- L& P
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# @! w, W; z! z8 D2 @0 m7 ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 b1 ]8 I, g9 t/ `/ `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
u" e3 J* r& ~1 Sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 e% y. Q+ V( M2 G/ O; e i1 Z1 S# urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 C! J* Q3 @0 t" Z- c) Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: b) p2 g& q7 p' _1 a! u
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
: l8 Y' l+ Y! _4 hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* V/ k8 L: a6 f# @rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* g5 C I1 i! e6 S
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" Z4 ~$ X% ^ @( tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; N' y" I8 @2 ~4 [" i- YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 G5 z( N/ a0 m0 N7 ]6 E9 Y! Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 {; T; R9 D6 O1 C/ R5 G# u# o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 N7 N" v- z9 Q; @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 i2 b' R# y1 H X+ jthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: t7 X/ N" q6 f/ O& Ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& ~" H+ D* X; P+ QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, W2 @" K# @$ @3 s2 V/ I8 p1 h/ dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
: U4 Z: Y5 D' r4 xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 w8 |9 d7 R' m y, W/ Z6 bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 K9 b4 h1 V& }$ k0 v( o* ^& ~* q( |: w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 `, v; h2 N& P( ~' F2 J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% d' r# B; O& ?! C. }9 Z
leg down over 2009.
i( W, c' }3 x6 ?. F8 o3 |; G. W2 [
# H& f; h) G) w9 _* E8 z" Y K/ H! j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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