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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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6 m1 J) }* U  H  `+ T" h/ OTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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6 h7 d8 l. n, N! u: v+ \  J5 vThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * K8 f6 H1 R3 [& `; W2 Z
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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8 v2 v1 t1 L+ {# _2 nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; w: ?8 q$ E8 [2 s- N, e: b
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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4 z4 S/ G0 _1 {& ]"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.( N4 A: R/ Y4 Z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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, {$ i4 F6 \4 z: k( J4 ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
+ M  x$ v- S  Z# o$ t 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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# l8 ?" k4 u2 D6 O6 ]5 v[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
: }. {- a" i; a$ i跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
! ?! W2 ~6 l; ?5 Y% o6 U$ O) j+ l# D嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 ^3 ]; H  c& N, o0 F  p2 M
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 e0 O& w% |9 j- i6 i+ {boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ @4 n3 N3 J0 U! z0 Lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 A" t% d0 u* v/ u* K! m2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. q0 p0 u2 D& ^  ~
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* d. M( f( I1 k( m0 Y$ Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- J; i% x: [* L1 Athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  n7 H* I* F$ pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, f$ ]; R+ V* }( t3 K! s4 Jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- y& k. V1 q$ F. L" d2 t0 uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( K$ t8 ^7 d9 }2 i4 y. A
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) G+ V/ J' z+ n' R3 L8 F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: m% Q" Y+ h' _2 i, _# T) ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: p: W! D  y) y9 [homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ g, N0 B# `5 O7 U5 s, }30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 ~. V) \" ]2 @$ a1 P1 X  a0 o+ h; Y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 ?" g/ m3 ]7 I( u
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 M! l7 W6 w) d- g) jhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; `7 B" i  |6 J9 |- J$ O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 Y2 R7 I: ]0 o. ^  l# khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( f9 D/ F) N: l# H  khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: s7 N$ ?. Z' r2 U( F  v3 o) cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 P$ o, s9 x4 a  U( u* wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# j, Z8 t, [1 d( N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 I& f7 Y" P: z3 ?
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 P8 I$ k" I7 b4 r/ @, H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! h1 F2 T+ B' L4 F( ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- t7 |' K' p/ y' `/ {. k0 y3 B
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; B! Z0 \! F/ Y  m2 e
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% u( o6 b0 }$ p8 [, Munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 O6 b7 T8 i1 A: t- J7 e9 l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 E& d  X# @8 o9 y. q- M* o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 v0 \: u: c- lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! p5 V! U; ~8 ?' m- s, F6 K( b, e* w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 b- ?( e5 V  D( O8 U% E( V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  J6 Z* T9 |9 w; C) F9 X- arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, a! t, ?. S- H/ x2 sThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- n# B  e+ m2 ~+ R1 T" t. b' gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# a; M  q5 w0 b, g  T$ d+ `Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ a4 n% w" L5 {4 C4 qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 @4 F9 e4 p4 }$ J* N" x1 ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 [( N7 H8 q' N+ i# ?7 H/ S* Y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ H1 L9 \# ^$ H1 b& w, `
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 [- e, t0 r% M1 B& Z7 t. [+ x# C/ ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., E7 H7 k9 _, C  L0 Z$ W( `* Q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, Y9 t% H- A, A- A& z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  g( K9 |0 k# Q* `- q0 Sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( B* x! I0 q  e1 ?; G+ O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) Y( b# j) x; t% j3 F
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; {; h; f5 Z' {7 SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; m- G. t2 r2 S, sleg down over 2009.) O, F9 f" R# ?

2 Q- c3 X& A1 Q1 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* @8 ^. c3 d/ b9 W1 r* z" @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% I; a: V+ d' M! Q! m' [+ @7 i& q翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子7 z  ^, h( N9 F6 j- Q
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" v, Y! X) }  c! |5 `

& X& @' p) w  n. |8 ?6 W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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