 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta, B1 J0 l! Y- O2 l
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ C' u" y b( W+ @- t) _' D$ b
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) |3 q- {0 q( ^: i9 l6 }are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; Y0 L0 I0 [$ e w0 A2 P. m: [
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 w7 K H: E# Q. s
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, s8 u) n! D6 f. E
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, O0 s, |% Q+ r8 F3 `9 D! u
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 R* A# }9 l/ _+ e' y; T' Q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous" @' Z [- @' q# E. `. }/ y
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* v/ N+ b+ `/ k% Q( s3 c, Sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% V, I! I; f; f% J& g
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 q: }5 P ^7 U, q# S% fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ R; [8 H, c' e0 _' uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 S* m, z6 o! O* dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. D# H( B+ r2 m" D$ z7 K7 z30,000 new households will form in the province during
# t: Z$ @0 O) X# v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. Z) v3 V2 h6 _# a" d0 {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" J( ^1 o: n7 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: R! q9 L; m9 ~) D
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 c2 Q. G" p4 y% T, {- {. M0 {has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; Q0 ]$ T# K y k3 L1 T$ \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ G( O+ `$ H: X1 Aduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& H6 Y- u" o' r8 Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% Q: w' C$ G! r0 m7 i: ^clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% i# L& H# `6 J5 G
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 _6 T+ g2 i" {: I% R( N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; J$ W% }% N7 B& d- ^6 {, |sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ Q9 z+ U5 p7 V0 }) X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! i( }6 [( k8 |1 o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( o9 `' x) O3 |: C. Y9 z( t* A1 u" f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) O H# k. ?& E6 a2 c# _5 [( Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest e; x# R- ^- V3 }$ y5 b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ P8 z' T# F0 _6 I* wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* B* {% x" Y8 d& p4 i( F2 rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 H9 m; V$ s/ | C+ jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 ]$ G3 ?. t6 S, I
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 M1 J# ]1 \& G# L* _
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# ^' Y+ C( h1 B fboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- s1 t! a# |$ a- _4 V$ MAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
% x7 M7 x+ _; G" [' _6 phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" d/ O) ]5 c- G4 krelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 \1 Z# n& T4 Z8 Lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even q! f6 k1 O' T
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 Z4 A: z) a' f" }
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ E0 `# n( P* s* l$ K! kThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# P" K: w& P& P: h( A$ q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ ?2 h, N* h# H* N3 A3 O# h
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; @+ Z/ w+ N+ }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ `; X( L3 Q2 x9 qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! a. [9 S7 }0 e) ~/ F0 dAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. X+ ^! P F7 z2 N0 U
leg down over 2009./ r0 l; @" Z5 \' E( c. c- z
! A z* k) z1 c( q1 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|