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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . R3 m! l9 |; M0 ?. w
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; a# ~8 P+ w: a3 |- Y- p
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. + _. A, D# h. o# ]; k' W
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' B  Z' B& {% O
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000." x2 T! s) d+ p4 l5 u

  U$ M  B; M+ A8 W4 c% H' m"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- M7 |/ B/ u0 ^Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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: Q2 {# S$ t$ t! U, l* F3 o* D7 H[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。1 N! A: B$ X. ]/ `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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) n; ~7 h$ c- G" V0 A" l: B[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / u( s, a6 L. O4 }' P1 o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

' H  m$ E- H# h+ @很多人都回学校深造去了
1 e; w- B( Z' V% I- ~嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) O$ @' R- K2 k- |& G8 Q  _) h) }Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; h5 P+ z+ ~# C; t6 r# n: _# u) n6 H
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 p1 o' ^' [3 u- w" l( nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( a) K6 h7 x# R, M8 M& x  c; `( q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 F1 W/ v6 l9 M4 G( y) P& l8 D( Eformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) r$ W7 L/ V3 D( N3 m
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 t; j. w5 b9 l( X/ Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 B! L/ n7 E0 K6 X
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous; U7 R7 I/ d% |; R6 q, t: |
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; @7 J2 v" b" H. Yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 W/ b* N3 B7 m  A6 Gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" ~- O0 ~6 _# f' E; w6 s7 r0 V5 v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, u* m  P" J9 a$ k" N7 w
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& t  D4 r) D4 d! ?( W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ h2 r" ~; z9 y2 F. o+ Q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( f9 t% R2 n, W- E0 W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( _: p) L/ F, W6 e3 X7 V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 m; {( O4 p- n7 A* S3 t% ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' V2 m9 M) h- i
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 x# d& _  V& h! k# c
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; M2 K7 V7 Y  {6 C6 q- Nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ W9 g* p) }, J' r9 Oduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& w" o7 a, P* y- l( S
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 A) W- C' z4 U& Y6 ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ T$ M, \* i# k$ f7 p; A; ?  Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) j5 T, Q4 L* q! R$ x" |5 ]0 i$ E9 [
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: S! y. Y3 N2 O4 v  ]0 j/ dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 O( n8 j; J4 T! ~* J) t
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 E: b8 L) C9 y1 T8 ?
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in  h2 X* h) E1 \" x4 F6 K& O: l
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ j# m( J  Q' n% m, d4 P+ a
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( z1 ?& ]  U% u, u
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ S; t. B' L: ?: a# E& Aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 }6 _6 B5 o0 s; P
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 @( f5 V" X5 z8 A7 k: l
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ I# e7 s6 c7 B5 o8 b  T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# O# C$ A6 i' ?6 a0 v1 z% QThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 n/ o9 G. ^! i: n5 O5 X9 Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% C/ i; D/ O: e  I4 Y" q0 K' yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan, N* v+ ^* }7 P2 f7 s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ R' q! M7 L6 i6 Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. r: E$ W, g5 ^1 s0 i7 Y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even% X3 f7 s1 z" }1 E0 ?0 O7 x
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 [0 @, x7 d& j; {' [( q5 |on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 j8 ^  S" T' u3 o1 t
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: m1 S% ^8 w; B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 P+ y# G/ y4 e& a1 h+ V+ vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ V: M5 n' B2 I, x. Uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; w: s& f7 l& fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 |  w, K/ D% p* `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: p% j) A" S8 {, L2 _
leg down over 2009.: c# L, E1 @. F+ q# \
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 w8 C/ B2 C" c* I. u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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  V+ H+ a/ t& h% v6 ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' ?9 v8 q6 @# R翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子# V. U$ X; P$ x+ o  T4 d- }
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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