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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : j+ Q+ o  C; O( x' N  h7 D2 H6 F

1 F9 Z( W" P, X4 u% sThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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$ T& h7 b! Z, d' w"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000./ C5 F; o: w, H" q4 q  t$ D; X1 Z

- U/ V. W0 W) i0 Q- t  N! W8 f"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% Q4 Z3 z$ r( E6 @* ]& u

: G  h. j3 f3 v* e, b" hMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % c- f. W# {6 }

" g/ T3 \* F" ^8 ahttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,3 m9 D8 `. v5 |- q* p
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。& M6 q/ A' z8 a. w" L3 n6 }5 N
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; X- S0 P+ ~* [2 `# x  Q7 I; k7 u
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ V/ y" t9 ]+ H" o& b5 x/ C, ]跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
2 }! C7 i* }1 V5 ?6 u; T嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
( }% U" Z( g6 k  a6 F3 z+ t% DWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 t- w2 [; k: J, V. V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 h9 w, _1 k5 `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 L, W# F( P- i) q1 a, |
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! B9 a  n  E% J0 Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, Q" A! m* R+ Z/ G+ p# w# {4 `
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ d. r! P, Q4 Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, @0 i# q: h8 u; H6 z' R& a4 Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 f  Q7 ~9 L; o" c8 w
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ C5 K# V0 N- v
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 K7 [4 i3 Z0 eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 l) y- t% b5 n7 [% v; V( Aprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, d, f/ E/ a1 N, I6 \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 `6 X. `8 u2 S5 L" k/ c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( h' c. D# u  J; J/ u) f; ~30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 N8 q1 d1 I9 s* A6 [, P2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ P, J- y9 J. y2 L' G6 _& [! L. h8 xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" H; i" H1 u9 T% {  r/ O" x
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, {! ^& ?5 H. a0 ~. O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: L! h/ N/ w+ ]: N9 I! W0 n" O. rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 G8 Z# a: c* q* |& R  G
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% b2 B# X+ k1 V4 [% nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* i8 G$ N/ ?" e0 a: S" A  Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ u! b8 Q) o" y5 x, Xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ e. X: B" t) s' S; l4 {1 D$ `excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 Q+ |5 i+ Y) N& F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 L$ v" i6 T8 ~5 R" ?% s, U3 esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 W2 e3 B: u  X+ d( Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! ^0 h& q! y; K, k; q& N
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 |5 {" I( P9 X. [/ P6 f/ O7 [+ h4 Gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 @$ x/ @0 `' T" R
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest  T2 I! i) l4 U! g
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 b0 U* a# ]' W! w* Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( h. h4 e: T9 t+ r& l1 j- b7 X; f7 U
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) [( [/ S/ }' g% F; G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. Y1 A+ X( @9 i  e# j5 {; S9 Y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 ]4 [$ [, F* O4 W5 F  c8 _: |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' h& y- q# U* q4 H( q$ h
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 {4 O3 L& B& a! F1 q( d+ [9 u3 |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- T' h6 j9 E5 L2 H- {1 Fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# i+ L, Q; v+ i: U, k8 frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- j# D3 C1 ^, E* A# X* sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- k' \$ U  |' S/ M9 v
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 e* v5 G4 y/ T7 d7 x
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; Y+ F% q. w) l$ ^* Y+ aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 |8 P2 R. e7 r9 S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 {+ ]9 y6 h9 o+ ~0 z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 j/ j. ~( w& w9 v& [0 i1 i5 Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% z6 H% F4 u- h7 P! Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 _+ _3 y% p7 q& y! a
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( h( d, e$ M- y+ x/ a* `leg down over 2009.
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6 w+ w- j3 c$ B[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& q& x$ D  t% l6 K& g$ b2 S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 P3 X# I" Z: ^) I2 s翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子4 _* @9 i  ~) o% Z, u. b/ e4 J

% m) v5 |, C* N. m3 X& G9 c6 Y: N1 e7 Phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ V6 R% {( V: e$ s  @4 I
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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