 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ Q& g! ^5 O5 B
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 g( ?. Q+ h3 J7 o
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! S. ]* P2 X8 b6 v$ m
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' W# R! f. M8 o& k y$ Y6 N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 l# X+ m% [9 M3 B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 p, \, s6 d: Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
Q. Q# Y8 c4 n+ W6 Y9 ]the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 z) U& L: v2 F v; b3 ^8 `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& |# E9 a8 w% W. L) j1 t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; e: } q3 w% ]5 F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 V$ }, s9 i, G7 C; T" bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 C: M6 ^3 m: q0 @
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this% n# r, {" E7 A- j! q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ \) x- y% m) Q1 z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* g/ o0 L6 u" o( }1 y
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: o6 x4 D6 \+ X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- ~/ o( ~* x8 e
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* U9 X- z4 \, n `1 g6 r
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; z2 G/ d( }; V4 l9 l6 I# U9 z; w, tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 j1 n/ ?; _; t6 t/ B
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 Q9 x( T5 y" Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, p2 z$ Y* v' j! F2 u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ s/ a% V; O U0 H+ Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# |, x/ o' D- g4 t# i
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, K7 z- H! p9 n0 d1 z" i6 J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' \& n1 N- M2 R& r1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 V3 q2 q, r E/ L# c3 S4 w; g
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( |% k' R' E% N' H {) `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* }( j4 H6 o' `4 l. itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 V( \- X4 r, Z0 n# g7 {7 |unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; }& W$ m4 L) m# {unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* A5 I- ~! v$ g# Z. @recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# s5 p6 H9 u8 Z) Qresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# [# @; R; o# l( ~ omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ l# t) Z/ y* G& |- i L- Z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* i. D! b- o8 F1 o: R- i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; F! F" R5 {2 c
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- k4 U3 }9 }! L& [; Yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. }, G; |. v1 b) H& G" r5 S# Z3 aAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
U d* c' `, e$ T; v* Y/ ~8 B2 dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, N9 n6 U! f. v5 g1 [4 a P9 J* _- |
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: T; W0 ?6 U1 r4 K2 j, Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 H: s4 C4 O) G
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners @7 o1 z0 U; c" k# T ` }, z7 `0 Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& O$ [' J+ U4 L
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& x' C. ^/ U; O$ T+ H; f' _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! r+ X: ?4 g$ O, a& E
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 b G3 E) @9 t% A8 s9 y. I7 a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, u/ y/ A6 l0 F1 y. bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% Q: Q( i% q. EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! R; o3 Q/ z& I5 ?$ K& C* jleg down over 2009.
1 @$ P1 y/ G. R/ c8 U1 R
! K m" O6 e8 x3 G6 J; t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|