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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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; m- b( D$ V4 x4 `% Q, K. DTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
* B. m, _+ }1 X2 N: K' i$ {, L1 @0 }( V2 H* \! Q
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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% b$ v9 l/ f. Z5 W1 o2 J- V"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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3 l/ q( N; U4 a' ~1 f) CNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% L! K/ q1 A) T2 e3 m( K

! a2 X. R) _9 h% X* a9 l: h8 M3 ^TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ R+ e  W$ x: D8 W& [5 r! H

# g1 ?4 U- Q* D  m/ HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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$ o9 K6 q3 l2 k# fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

* J% w, [3 b1 G( h& d7 |- ^& ]$ _6 ~+ \3 i8 p5 }, F, w
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 u/ A; E% k. t
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 p( u3 z; i: Q* n 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  `7 X# p/ e; {  W+ O2 z

& H* {$ g, Z+ z* p0 s0 p[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* p" f. D- s" Y跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

$ m2 D/ ]6 `4 d% P很多人都回学校深造去了
0 o& y0 t$ a- Z  g* F' k! p3 `3 a+ n嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
. v/ g2 Y; {( M/ Z& e: Y6 J1 X0 wWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 H6 J7 w3 H6 H3 Z$ q: Rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 F- U5 d3 K% c8 n7 z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; K, I0 ?( W3 C7 ?; ?% m2 z$ I
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( G. c' ]: w2 K8 u0 `- t/ t" n8 lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 e3 Q6 C/ K+ v* c$ b6 Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# }! Z6 G! K3 h6 _* N# _the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( }5 U, F1 h  i' x7 D
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. @. T7 `& @0 {7 `0 _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, `+ D2 c# ?, o7 ^3 d
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 L9 }  a+ m" y4 O7 E" s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 |0 x# o) O: x2 n2 J1 v  b6 u+ J
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- n3 n1 {. N* `0 e
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( v5 h9 U4 N9 j) Whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ J2 b7 g: w7 E
30,000 new households will form in the province during
! ~& a8 T7 ]  h# a( ?2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* O1 i: u& V3 C, u" jEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& D$ V1 c5 v+ b
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  A# v3 o0 m! t; R
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 v; X* I  Q- H; @& h" T7 P% q% \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 O; E6 F, L0 p( L6 ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 A( l8 S' T: k7 dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 O# U& ^2 f$ n: H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 l7 Y0 v9 e# G) s8 ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 r- I' U8 r9 B: G" t# Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 _9 Z; U1 U' G1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( u8 o5 T4 U8 d$ d/ p8 {. y4 k) Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 c8 A5 x2 f3 k0 ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' `* ^$ o2 l" ^3 |
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in  A% y# S2 j- N  b3 ?' q- F) i! C/ i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& y6 @# [$ t1 X" q) @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 _  h, M- e$ c9 D" i2 G" p: ?* Y/ E
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ l) C& ]: H4 W6 ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 R3 X. Q8 K0 t% O( amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 ]& d& j5 y1 I1 y  E4 fof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' ~! \6 x+ j- `  F0 O* R+ V; x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., y" b; V- B6 v+ a9 O/ N0 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  A$ |$ ~- ^- Z7 @' l/ Tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: H' `5 w% N- yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# s1 W6 f) ^0 s5 Y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. W' A* S, B& \( \  p' e! |* o. E
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 h2 q3 ?! @' |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even. H5 E4 \+ a2 Z" p
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* t* b& c6 Z$ ?4 K5 s7 i; h. B" con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& q( M9 x! D. E* U6 F
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: d  u9 ~% _& E7 ^4 A+ |! r5 N& lresale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 D% h' E2 q/ f. p2 N, b" X* aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 Y( V) w+ ^* r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! j% |) I2 S; d. O6 I1 n1 w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  x  p' @8 o. X0 u3 O: M* WAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ ^" }  _" |1 s8 w2 ?% q! y# e3 g2 Rleg down over 2009.) C# n4 l0 [$ m+ b
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% p4 B" N8 U5 u9 i6 q" J0 uAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 u/ ?+ Q3 M# d. e# m3 N0 F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ p2 e8 Y; A  r9 K# |( I6 U5 B2 d翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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' {  `" P$ h- Q& L, l- v7 Ohttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 H- w" e7 _2 C% P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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