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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 y2 u) }' L* [$ g
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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6 |* b7 y) v. W0 y4 P( DThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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* }  E  l8 G% z1 eTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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  d/ l) M2 X- @"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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+ [+ `1 @1 i' _- JTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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3 d/ g/ L% `0 [. D& ~% MTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
8 a8 S; G  m2 r% q- N: t" Z- }: s7 i# R. {8 E& t; E, q( D
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: L) h+ |* @" X! ?; o6 ~$ Q5 R( O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( x" {' x1 W4 f$ r
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
5 ?* k; W9 P3 r  j- a跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

9 l2 a- t/ a# F1 Y: \很多人都回学校深造去了
1 P' H; D2 ]6 @3 ~! ]; `- q嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
/ c) k/ V3 N' X0 M. J( t- SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& w8 [  S$ |, r" `# q& [+ `boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 _6 g  X" e# }) @8 A+ Z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. `5 y9 c( X& D+ O* e* v' ~5 t2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 Q5 u0 b2 q( Z( W: j5 i* X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* d8 d  E5 V2 dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 m# d1 Y/ |" i9 athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and  g! s; K/ i/ W
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& L: |: S7 h: r; [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ L6 L4 E8 d' K8 `% _- B4 jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. ^7 t% c; S. w9 g! z- `$ T8 Fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- G! t- P+ J& B. w+ j: E/ Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) g: A' \6 Y4 y( C7 E7 S0 L
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! V; ]& v! Z5 A2 |
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 P) k: ?5 r9 \+ x4 `30,000 new households will form in the province during  C3 [( m! X! b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. M' P  h- r- W* a8 v6 {# TEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 _  }% J* l& {, G( {9 q0 W8 Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 G! U& y. t  ]- ]$ w2 _4 Fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# ?4 S$ L" [' I$ i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* k4 D; v4 a3 ]% _9 y/ }
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 D2 D. F7 E/ F! I( ^- _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 H. |) m" S2 Fsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# s3 C7 y9 g3 e6 W$ P2 U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 n& P/ n- a$ w; O* Y0 Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ l3 a4 V, b) Q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- c) b# h# `. n1 X+ J
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, t8 P1 B3 I; D* jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( ^7 L6 d$ o8 B3 r- H4 W# ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in. m+ N3 S3 a( _# X1 u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( ~  _( v1 }0 m' ^) W2 R7 zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 [) m, ?/ z- yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 f6 ]" w! [2 E# |2 r( _resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 [, T, a# A" H% A. V' C* B+ f
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 T5 b6 B& Y$ G1 k' k+ w! G5 x: \of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 Z. [! b6 }: b( Prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 F# n9 Z: o* n/ q/ x
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- V1 `5 B5 Z8 ]* `0 B1 o3 fboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.1 c+ e/ Q0 T( G, i* p( {
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 J2 H, F$ h+ L( A. jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 [: x8 q) N$ B9 x" `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 y& h0 r6 N$ D! B1 jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ l6 V8 ]5 |4 q8 T4 gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 M$ @8 L1 E* K
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 u$ o0 W. V( i6 V9 a  MThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ [8 V; B2 g3 i5 a  x3 ^resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* g' n" |- L9 V4 n- oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, F% [2 [/ I" y0 N& a7 Y/ t- {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, X" C  E$ e" E- Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) p# r7 ]* q! K" |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 c8 X' S" W0 e! ]; ?$ Y! eleg down over 2009.' E( J4 T0 M& W1 P3 `

6 g" ^3 `( U9 s. H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. U6 ~4 s) l4 SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% f% y9 O: F* R  j7 B  i- U翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" p# y3 M  F5 I! `7 C% s5 W
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. e' Z$ p  y2 V* S1 X9 S2 o

% Q% m: g# S0 ?' w( R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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