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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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# W8 [: ]2 ~* X; k3 `The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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3 x/ R3 ]* x) }+ q( k, R"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* Y7 \, ]' L# K5 S2 R& i/ |; F
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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. q) Q; o7 W: }& @( B. D"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 s" c/ u2 c+ i; O' U  {) k

+ X  }4 W4 \7 I' x2 fTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ o- `, M; f) {5 I
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 x6 W1 T9 G7 N

  G  F! T( x& n0 Q1 h+ S$ Uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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6 H) M, {0 b/ S% P/ A" c- rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,/ _7 c* O3 A: }# h7 l  i
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, ?8 M% k  F. g 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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( e1 x6 A( Y5 ?, S: J; J6 n; N[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 T2 `: |# K0 P% X5 y+ L- K. z) o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

2 Y  U, ]( n) b+ ^- f: L很多人都回学校深造去了4 l( @  I5 w+ h, H: N2 k* L
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- z, v! z, M/ SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 _) I, h2 [0 I! S9 `boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  s( [: o3 {' }! C$ x. G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 t3 t: z4 i5 U, A$ a2 }$ K
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 Z, w5 K  P% G) [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- w  b6 J6 z( d. O- Tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ P, E9 E( C' }6 |5 c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ u) |6 V6 K) ?. r) w7 m" u9 umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous! W/ `0 X, f2 z, u. K
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 X2 r" P: W9 n7 I9 F; F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
  E& o- I: Q9 S& Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# O9 x! G: d! Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" a4 G! ]& z( i. z& X3 K2 X7 Y2 nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," ]* }* F5 q6 ^. M  b
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 k6 o$ S6 L' O2 ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 G1 y8 [/ D# v( |' L0 F8 u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ I+ r0 `/ [' a) n3 E8 O+ j
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: z7 f% h- |# z+ m' r2 {: E3 f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; d# d( Z' Q7 x& ^7 iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 [8 @2 [. q# N1 |& P% K% Y+ Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ N) ^5 @7 ~3 z! U4 a
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 H% K6 H3 ^5 M0 `during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" E- S% O$ v6 vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ }8 h/ P' |0 @8 P+ S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; _" P9 z9 x- N/ X: `0 U, @6 Lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& @9 k* q+ x& ~4 I0 D" J, k
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ U5 q" H0 M" u5 r: B
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) M1 ]0 r9 q$ `  n& x2 [3 z# xbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* e  t. p# F, C* }9 R2 Q9 [two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in. r( L: R5 V& [! J& ?' P
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ q- ?& S3 [# w, ?5 ~9 kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ {/ _) n  w+ A  Mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 Q  ~! C5 u6 Q  Y- m/ o" w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% N  Q4 p7 K; l! @major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 A) p. u2 Q3 G8 wof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& h, k* n. V# N3 {# y- T1 z' u/ Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% J% J1 h7 v, B1 o( H8 @
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& m' V; H7 H% M( Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. _4 k& s2 L$ i4 \% ~% j1 q+ i- GAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; W( f$ W/ N1 W& ^6 d! Fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 }5 a" n! N5 P- Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 N; j1 e. F" B! e& o. I6 vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ d* b9 B" s# N' z2 q, h
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* r  H  M& S" Y$ ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ K. d. ?0 F( N2 OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" L* m4 c( f' c$ K
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, I% U; ^0 _" x$ `5 h9 `  hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 A1 W5 O' V3 Y8 K/ x, o
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 f$ V4 D+ z1 V0 f2 I
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 V6 L7 D& P* d  x  [; q4 m7 y1 ^Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- }6 z/ M  U# z1 L6 @
leg down over 2009.
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" c* n4 D7 @% U; [9 q! I  R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 T4 w& {8 n- y- Z: U8 G' B1 q, H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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. ~: o3 [4 m. J+ c' F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 7 t9 o$ Z. M1 t' C
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- ]9 _- k& ~0 [9 o
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& Y9 ~- d/ {2 a: I, ^) b

* e) c7 S% {4 f. O0 w7 t# q0 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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