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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
; h6 H4 j9 d6 ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 D5 e- @: i$ q/ u- T" S. }7 E. Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 c; E+ D$ m9 | T' Nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ h0 v: R9 }/ _2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' V% w: Y. H5 q# Y7 u! k/ a# {" d
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided5 b/ L1 m6 v- ^0 U# P b7 r. ^# ^+ Y6 z: @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 r$ {* v5 v4 N- Y! g) C2 Z+ athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 A2 _. j. Q. K1 G) z0 }may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ N3 x: Z) n6 _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 F9 }. }# K) z, d' n8 I& o. Gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ E; Q% F' E& C. |3 ^4 R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( F( \* U, I3 ]: O- e& |
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 T0 x E1 \, w5 F; g- w( T& Q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* q1 u! _% y3 ?+ v' m9 B" @, g; xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% z* y- j0 ~- E' \, {; @7 ]30,000 new households will form in the province during! e! c# [4 \4 m- Z9 l" t& F8 W
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 D7 D: N1 t3 l) w+ ~, N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" @7 R0 n6 X0 z: F! y$ o- H2 y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 t3 n: z, @/ J" dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 J. M3 P8 [" c( Y: \ f4 `3 P' uhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ y+ g1 k5 D9 V: vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 _5 k7 |4 C' T/ t
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 I4 q1 j6 m dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 ~1 V# x" U% G9 }% n& H
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ Q j0 M6 c: pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ j+ y7 L w) _( ^+ u4 B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 I! l2 n! n& R. r+ F- w: ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, \5 x" M6 H5 s9 z7 h% g# ]# i) k/ y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 P. H8 H7 b1 C7 ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ o0 t. z" l4 t: y/ Z. l& n$ @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 v$ ^9 t1 i/ @0 d+ \0 w% J2 Punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
0 g* Q5 ^: k0 g9 p2 t; _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! ] Y/ I7 ]5 ] \resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 s% T" G) A, o0 h/ I: emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 |9 P5 I* M& Wof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( _/ q4 R# P6 d1 E( W! G, \5 Q7 \( xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 n0 P, M5 d2 K9 X, G' l7 j8 @% z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, J! I8 f& h" P4 I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% n6 e6 r/ x+ F) ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: {; j1 X3 P) I0 X* Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 T# X5 L% W8 m6 ~: y6 q8 J& i: A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 d+ f) z: {; W- k" n* ^
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even1 p9 v ]! F- [# o5 K- D
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ f8 R( ^! \$ m& m8 ?: e
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) V( j0 N* e$ x# E9 n
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! P' c" K. e& _7 @" C
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* ?- I1 i' ^8 U0 [0 v7 ]
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 B+ D' M# `4 c$ L
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- E7 p+ T" `- }1 y+ m2 s( q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 R9 I4 m1 t( }# e ^( F
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. C. N0 M$ b/ e5 v/ c( T
leg down over 2009.7 L5 Y9 f. T0 h/ \
1 E* @& S( z# [7 h$ I# ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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