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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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" w) @0 \* A' B$ z# ETD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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6 q7 z5 q* T, D+ }" r: aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; Q- T' X: V+ ^% j

: P# I4 ^# ^6 P* y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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" a* c0 D4 l. z% }Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 V: j; [8 e7 w) s* ]/ V1 X8 T& X

7 R* D2 V! V# S4 s9 u, @TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 8 m) j: i+ K* h

: f3 n# p: J; I  ?  k- b$ ZTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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3 W" N5 C, o' M& F/ }( [Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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, w  z# V/ m, E4 i- Rhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,& H4 g$ b( O1 s3 F  O6 Y; r
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, @. z& I; H# [7 ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。% @! F2 T# p- E* B. x
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 y0 f  o/ u+ h跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! A% `9 D- f- q7 S: Y5 T很多人都回学校深造去了) \! g; E9 k; R$ ?0 M( h
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta. |  H+ w  F- }. w3 _$ P, V: I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 D; X& |$ t7 _7 E
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 t4 Q! w$ U) k) t; z( bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) P2 z! {9 k# v5 g" i2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 Q, D2 {0 |0 J( Q! ^8 b/ U
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 Z: p) a" H: G( O
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ u. A9 r- w. c1 s$ B2 s+ x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ z( }6 X( v* [7 Z. q; Hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% D' m/ j3 U  f4 ?* npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 _8 O* ^( m- T) N  n5 P2 I: Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- N8 g) n- D$ P
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: D6 {2 Z6 U7 u5 }! z* l) S- K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 ~0 f2 L( q0 K: I5 k3 ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 ~1 k& s9 Y1 v1 {/ O; Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 c* `/ p. T5 X/ H7 P7 X+ _" z4 R6 b5 T
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 l$ ^5 {' A& S& f  _$ N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  w1 ?" I6 ~1 {9 S3 DEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; v/ z6 r& \7 U. ~% f$ t! r
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- `0 c/ w/ O' Y' oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 x$ I$ Z- f/ d1 r7 F7 p, f$ _has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# t6 d/ Z+ N9 S/ h7 R- r; `
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
- h$ ~3 v9 k4 ?' c0 S3 a8 z# k8 G. e+ wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 B% Q! t6 T4 B; U$ D/ ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 g" p1 Z6 f2 A) e4 ~
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 s( o- ]! I- c: mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 Q6 B& I, c) E, H: ]7 B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 [% h, h' Q4 t1 y8 |/ t" bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# f( h% d2 z: l' P' c  y' w1 e
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 y- @6 A2 p: m4 p5 Q& }' ]two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) i. j! G$ g7 F! qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. ~. Q+ `& U; s! T3 C2 Z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- ^/ @9 t! D. A4 ]9 M" R
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- M6 N% o" N6 a4 ^6 r9 f) z/ [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& X3 ^8 [$ p8 F  x
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: y5 J/ k4 r% {9 {- \- W/ A
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' c# {4 U5 D, x: u5 J
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., b" ^. b1 l: Y" q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 ?* d  O# R: U) a' Uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 w- C3 j. O3 d( l( lAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ b& }7 o, f6 C- e: h) ehousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 b* l$ z4 |. g" d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. c! W8 a' d. w. T) k3 r% [prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 ]+ }4 {- P7 e3 {; b& Uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ }3 K& H& e7 _& c5 O4 P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' s1 V' }6 j/ DThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 ?8 W! `) H1 }7 r1 vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% j6 g( e$ H& N+ jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 ?$ n0 V2 F+ o- Z+ H5 p
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- t* E  @+ m) P. W) X, Adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& O4 T0 ?1 @8 c5 {( _% G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 Q# k) ?0 j! A! v" Ileg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ z) X* ?+ H4 y; k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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8 I. L' W* n* h* k8 R% g# K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ w) u- q! v3 Y  j/ h
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( J, s. l8 Q  A& {/ L
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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