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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 x( X9 L% M7 f+ A- k
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' o0 i+ T( ^ ]2 C; x* Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% \* `+ T8 |& B! v
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: b% ~6 K0 m A+ o6 k
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 C" Y `1 s$ u7 o' {formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 L& n6 r* f0 W0 C) `8 k% v7 ?
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 r* P( ?- E" L: Jthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; g2 u$ {! I, Z! ~may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ n" U2 W4 U$ _, qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 e* r6 O& `; k9 c* V- h
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( L- B- C7 v V, Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) [& C: r% Z( K( F- U- v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 s) j. x( b L4 F5 I. syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 `$ a- u. l" J
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 u7 g( ^6 E0 n4 V9 S8 {
30,000 new households will form in the province during+ a5 K8 C$ j0 |4 A8 J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" f- ~3 K( A" C X# L: YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s q5 a+ c Q" v" c. t& X9 N
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, b+ |! B( c7 K; L
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ l% s8 J8 b+ \1 Y, z3 E2 y. K/ K
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! L: @/ z# u5 g8 h+ N# _7 }households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: g6 y* q. ` g4 P. X/ t7 Q7 U
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ L t! Z. r3 c2 y; qsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 H( q: m. J7 `& ?7 H, j" mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: U7 S1 B. ~3 K5 a# {6 @' R
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" s# s" V% b- w% q3 ?7 g5 ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 T0 K, c* T7 a3 s( P4 H4 isales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" g/ a& b- u5 {0 j5 s3 y" e8 p+ u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in B6 k" o% W4 S+ M" ^# g
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ w+ C+ R5 q3 B, W& k, j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" B$ t; z0 K! t" ~# q) Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 z" o2 [" w* drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
U3 G$ {& h% x2 O H$ d5 [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% `8 L# s+ F$ |8 Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 ?# ^! b; h+ E; r7 t4 `: S
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled! x( p2 }8 e7 T( H( B& R
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ d4 O: h+ }; N9 _
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) k7 f+ j! b0 ]6 b7 O
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! M* _; E) k) J! I/ U# c# s9 r3 h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( I1 N( Z1 s1 v
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& {3 D J! n, a- n7 o0 [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 e- @! o5 v& W8 P. C% z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 k- B% v4 d) V8 M7 R8 k( ]: Fthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! b# p4 Z9 e1 E5 Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ x, f; Z5 M6 gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# U- o) j7 J. l5 r. G/ k
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 \% i. R, g0 L7 [. c4 F7 \exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& ?. q' `2 `" l& U, @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 h$ ^. b/ K" t. Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 ]# t: x5 H4 u3 NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. Z" B7 E( v$ g
leg down over 2009.
0 S1 G' m5 Q& X9 e o4 L
: S3 ~ H6 W: {2 \. E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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