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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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! D& }# U' z; J" B  x! KThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 W0 @' Q# K! }8 S8 B* _& r
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( o  b# R  U0 N5 L( e2 `+ U$ S3 ^9 ]

, v1 v5 Y2 l" ^# i! F) H' m"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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3 ]1 m. A" e1 }+ C0 _4 T& Y1 K+ |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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  N9 v7 t3 L1 Z2 v7 p5 Nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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5 W- Z/ }0 m) L. mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 R; @& K) T1 `, X/ Y; d. e
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ g8 j3 P; _) g2 H( \& H 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 }( w3 y6 Y+ E% O跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; w7 v: m2 e0 h3 F" ^/ {很多人都回学校深造去了
: l2 f* w6 p1 w' D9 p) |嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
8 G: o: `+ z2 \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* x: d4 ?  v4 n! s- Nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 L; c7 E7 A- r# b3 n
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 A( M/ [) n+ S; T8 s* A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ R, t* M& K6 x9 Q. Lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided+ R% S: `; Y( [5 ?: N, X: [! w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; m7 C8 ?# ]) `& W* x1 m: a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! u# r' r2 g) A: e. o8 j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 o. [0 Y* _0 m7 y+ k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" Z8 c% z7 R9 s4 D2 _precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ H8 _' C. y2 C2 v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 }9 c! b* r9 l" I* `
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" G) B( U& |9 X; ^( v  Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; C  q$ p5 e- m/ o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  F/ X( w4 I+ [! q' j: [3 k30,000 new households will form in the province during: _: F  |7 f" b& @  Z; X, z8 C
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ ~3 s. n) B6 ^1 pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# Z$ A. \! B' |# U7 H! n
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, q: s: k( }$ t3 c, s: M8 K6 X
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 ~( V3 g1 k6 Q+ o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 V* i/ k" @  I/ G, }; `- O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 E/ u& J/ e) Z# u; v, vduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; K* F' Y0 W8 s! l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) u1 }  A- ?0 H' q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 M9 q0 j4 i( X7 Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 ^, y  f+ Z/ Y# M! W
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; g: j  g. R5 x
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 J7 x) c5 C4 E" @) B9 D* A
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 t7 ]) c5 o& G% j" I
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) u" _( D% O5 D# e; bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& R1 {; N( u! D% l' o  m0 P" w) Funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 k! b3 Q$ i& hrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 g9 h7 L5 ^4 p# A$ l
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 t( I; L' `9 X; L, P
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& N) c  `% e8 u* A
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ u% W8 a$ s+ K8 O5 L: J# zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 G9 y  O2 l8 b& B( e4 H% Q; O
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. P( E- U* Q" T  V8 r' Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: e0 A! p) Z9 f6 d3 ~0 R  bAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# q8 \+ H  l2 S$ i3 p8 [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) p$ v/ F4 E  R  N" {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 Q" V" s4 r, t# X1 N! l# h# A& L' Cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 Y0 M0 C0 U$ M, R2 k+ A, L, Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& i( n6 H& z$ U0 H2 l% D# ^7 o0 \% j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) B2 b4 K, _: P1 G0 h: U
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 o: w" H5 q% n) M  W, G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 B5 r& M, ?0 s/ r/ j( T$ f+ J% `exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 w8 B" E& ~, q4 O0 E0 i
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 a+ G4 b/ W1 P, u- kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 d0 S8 \- J2 T! J( \
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: O+ ~% c( w2 \4 Y8 b2 b) d5 @
leg down over 2009.! J7 T2 N3 X" `0 O- |7 u* d& X) ]

- s4 P! S# z1 T- Q* K' I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# M6 p7 ]$ P6 P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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: x; H) g& F* A" D[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. * J- h" t4 ~: E* R7 p9 \4 i/ g. Q
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% D: \. Z% H" p1 E( ^, Shttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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