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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 q' M% e: C* m% w0 M2 \8 |

& B( X) Q/ i8 _& j, ]; Y8 lTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. * u- b9 S0 ~1 S# }1 c& s
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 t! s" @$ ?# f) v) G! x

/ A3 ?* i8 g% {9 y9 ?; e3 A"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) J% Q; B9 w; o

6 m! A- U2 b7 b: a/ @Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 O/ P# d/ a. K- k' U

+ j! S- e0 k2 [. i) y"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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( _: F, c! K  o# A8 }  B; g/ ?* xTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% \9 J  g9 U0 t% L6 M

  D, R3 H+ D1 N2 |: I2 \( P) CMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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/ Q- W$ y$ u4 `. aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- T7 Z2 r. @) ~6 A% w

1 J) V: B- D) L+ k/ K; |[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
. j  i$ C' c6 X( a9 c 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。0 |; a2 V5 W5 X; U

  Y% C9 y8 }( t( b5 e[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
! F0 Q8 z) k9 H# D; m# W7 G+ N; ~+ q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了6 E' M9 k" C* B+ W2 E, H. {
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" r* k. N' x% sWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* W9 b, r: g+ w# M/ {) K. E6 Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" F! [- D# g. t; Oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
9 B7 K! s% C8 ~1 J. [2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- \. h# n" a4 v" z# t5 h! w4 L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- D+ N8 T8 K: S$ x% r8 B
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! ^* O; n% Q- p) W4 S" F: G+ s6 {
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! \) i: ]; |/ a; f: N$ f
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' V1 G' O( G* T5 d
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: U: r1 o8 w3 Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& r6 b4 S) R8 w% q# `1 Sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# |4 ?% I7 j6 X: Z# n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 T; v! G/ a8 e, o6 J
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* w* e: T, N2 I* ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 W& A2 l0 |) P
30,000 new households will form in the province during
! F+ d" }/ z0 f6 u) i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 b" O4 p+ A1 @) b1 G" f' mEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. |1 D2 y! C$ f, [6 Y: G$ _homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* k; f0 n' y  a/ U7 \5 i& w1 f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; Y) c; }4 h9 Q7 {3 t/ o' z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. ~; ]2 K/ H/ b% Q  A% ~
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 r9 L5 p4 h8 F! }4 L2 m( _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# }: w! k, C9 ?+ f& K% F, i  e$ H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. ?# T- q1 W' s" D' R5 L3 g
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, @# `  Q0 f& D) `( L' Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 c9 n3 G3 `' z4 F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- T0 G3 o7 s6 Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 h+ V) g& u% Cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in% s- m" Z- b8 S
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 v& ~: W% V# e( o. S7 `0 Hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 [; ^3 E0 K) D" j- f; e( W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' W$ m9 f& i  e$ ^recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& u6 w% K( D6 q9 T: p8 K. }7 T3 g
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 F8 W+ \; n" M7 B" b
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) e3 v- D4 C( i- {, ^& _" o. I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 Y" W- S" k6 d3 v& I- P! O# x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ J- V4 U3 O1 {( S7 I6 S! RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 }+ {* p% M1 E* H) m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 h, {7 g) p# u4 L0 Q) ~1 |7 Z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 A( [! j! R9 N# Nhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 G3 J. W$ e. P9 z: k& J) Lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 P6 r- |& x0 V6 w% w# V& Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 m, n8 m8 i+ n& W$ n" T9 K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 B1 G0 P6 C/ Yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- E" f. Y0 e2 ?+ IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* P7 ]* u1 }/ N0 v1 V
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' y! v/ ~( C6 T7 mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 g6 _) @- q# a" Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( i. D  q* X8 N9 v
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  J9 e3 Q. T9 x: x/ r: hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 i, ?3 h3 ~3 H5 C* m; `( c- C
leg down over 2009.
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9 T. N/ G+ ]' o/ q* a% f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, j+ a. f# [9 D+ }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' }  ^" E, }) I. m7 C. u
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子% N5 B% d# \, e( }
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ q3 j0 G4 f' ]) P) f2 z1 w
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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