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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
+ i3 V" k. B( x! J. _# yWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. S6 C9 s- N+ D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 s0 m7 t( r- Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ E! b+ e2 M" W# x" k2 o% N
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 I7 m1 b) X) X# r# v
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( `+ f7 t' u1 Q5 C0 K0 |% H3 r
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 l6 S1 u& ~+ R- z& O; N0 j* nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 W8 c2 T& d3 y! K! J' ?& v' _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! E& y4 J$ |/ n% n& P% npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& I" J$ ]. V5 u* z7 h8 {0 xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 I6 [& u2 _- B/ ^4 N: q1 Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 |4 n+ z9 T1 Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ d7 V: v0 K+ y- R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 B$ Q( c- R8 ~! B; x8 q+ t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around y/ }) {" x$ q- X2 O
30,000 new households will form in the province during7 B8 O/ N# B- z. n9 b8 J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* }/ Q/ J3 B( F6 EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! X/ L5 d, r Z; ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% e# M' j. o* ]9 ~/ @2 \
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 o5 a! Z' S- h$ y/ _$ Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 L T9 o- g" D0 N+ h$ K: ~* L) `households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- P3 i* e" V' O1 z' C% c0 `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 ^5 I# Z/ ?. O# I6 d" @
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories q4 B& P: z8 J0 a/ m
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ r. ^4 V- }( G) d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 }% V/ ]$ r( l1 ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 Z) ?( s0 m' \) d4 u% J: ^" |- msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* i. A( c" S6 T" W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. G0 b$ K" d; w; H' g: X p( g5 ~# I2 M
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* L/ o% u; C! ? `1 q. H# n5 ~unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- i, ^& Z, A7 p0 l. C$ ^3 c$ n2 w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; |, X- k: ]1 p6 M+ T) A1 o8 p+ crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 c2 ?9 d+ J' e
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# A0 |3 Q% c+ a1 L/ Z3 j# C8 gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 u. H; G! |% l0 N) Oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 r1 O) h0 n+ Y0 I5 {& o
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% l3 f) h9 I& @1 A8 j
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 p/ }/ e- w" @; F0 b n% gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& _% L+ T% f# E
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
, d% y, I$ G, p& I+ v Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; i0 {; F; v3 h5 p4 q& lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) s* Y [4 f) Q8 ~2 a9 }- M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; P4 @& f3 o6 S& [3 T$ jthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) C5 i+ A6 F3 _9 y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ q+ r0 d- X4 ~3 ^" c. B" }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, W! S4 n% x ] u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; H# g8 r) T0 F) [8 g s' p8 w5 \7 ~exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ R C; M4 _9 `4 T/ Fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 M* q5 }9 U8 s) c) g4 U3 p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ w$ H1 j5 {! sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%7 E* g7 b: X5 m$ i7 A, o* L' d) @
leg down over 2009.
$ q0 t, J; O& S V. _, Y4 I
6 T, @9 ?; B) ^2 Y/ n# c1 i5 @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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