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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% Y; R; c! i& c* F% iWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ [4 ]. u* b4 X- p+ h" F6 L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 ~$ N7 _" W+ U9 K1 f1 vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) `7 F! h) g/ Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! p' ^% i6 o6 F% Q9 I; C, Bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) C& @ k0 I, t- n% J/ L9 E6 }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) D" F7 a7 a9 g) f( Sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 W2 v: Z8 c6 c# w. L. t
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 v0 l v% u: d, A" p" `pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" k- ^$ a2 B* U. {precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ }1 B% q( t7 t; B7 w- `- m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 H9 u/ T) d) y/ ~2 N) w& ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ J7 O4 e. J# Ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; j" [5 g% S4 |/ j' h) Uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 J9 E' P& \6 W: E( v3 p4 M30,000 new households will form in the province during
) _4 U- ^& k$ m6 r2 R% n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ T. y/ k. R8 e/ F9 F7 j0 A
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ k* M+ Z, y6 R/ p) Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, e' i# t6 r3 r% l5 W8 D" ]during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; R1 D4 y/ F8 W' W3 u$ Z+ p' ?! Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 \. p: W. m; d" A" rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 i1 e4 D& q4 f6 W b" O' wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" Y, T* X, n" T, d& `' ?" J
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 e: V: }5 I; t! r. h7 j) C' \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 k: j2 y) l' kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' i$ ^- l5 A( n7 ?9 J$ j1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ o9 `4 b$ i* g% L
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 \% w9 S: l+ h/ D$ R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& G# ~4 n9 V# [- ?8 u: q6 X4 M/ t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- L d/ o- Q/ q! u) Z) ^; V0 i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 T! }( B0 P3 [, k) z& ]! Lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest. t" m2 w1 v8 p/ A
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 h$ S: _1 l; d) m$ C+ c3 m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, w& F% f9 m0 p# Z+ Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* c. |, w) S$ ]+ `- Uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled# t% b7 y5 v' ^7 l
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 y) u* s: w. |0 ?4 O: x8 T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s g6 h# g+ z8 T; m/ z4 }
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% ?* u4 e5 Y" o& ]+ z" ^1 u& ]9 U! bAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
% p3 f' h$ ]* P* ? Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# K4 W5 e2 |# q; Z3 E, ?1 n
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, G) V, L A" J3 k( c7 q1 q, n( _5 hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# F: ^( U) f. i+ e; @! k) [& Zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. v" _* H3 o$ F4 O. q6 _6 X
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 r, X* ~2 c% k7 g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 T: x0 m+ n" ~. C' ? Lresale price in February is evidence that past prices. @* v2 C" `) Z; M3 {3 s
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 F6 j( F" N9 V2 d" z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' Q2 }" l4 U! c9 L6 x+ ]
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 n2 K u0 [! S9 e9 g1 i& } `0 A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ {; |) U. k1 ^1 C0 d
leg down over 2009.' W2 M5 K& `( q. h5 {
* a. Y& N, E7 h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, n5 K8 g. C; |" b
, T7 @4 C5 \' D7 I! V2 u3 V
