埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2163|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." q7 ^/ n( k+ ]- K
2 ]0 w( x. y, n2 `  F
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
5 `1 T: a/ x3 m1 ^; g! e: A! V) Q/ `3 j% m
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 6 t2 y7 h2 ~0 c7 O6 S9 h8 `* ^8 k: o

; T) o: V& {3 m  O% ["Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
9 N6 L. n. Y! X( m
, y# f: p  N) A/ g; pNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
6 T8 O0 A7 E# X- j3 e
- |! w, A. g7 n: ITD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
' R" A# Q/ u4 n$ s. c5 x1 Y0 c: N8 {3 P' E
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
* `; ^: B( R# [* @1 [
- f: j" g; |! Z3 b( aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.# e6 Z8 {/ c1 u$ E/ v
- X6 P% s4 T' w' v0 g
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
0 W3 l* I" M! N
# W" ]; y4 O" b2 N: ~) shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
3 g; B+ R) W1 K+ ?" k0 {

* q# Z0 y. E) s. B' q8 mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% F& r! G# f. V7 q
, O9 q. K& B' u9 {* K" S+ q; h
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( N: l3 C2 X( \: M9 Q# m* X4 b
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
2 @8 @# ]& b) G4 \, L8 t% d1 d( g7 g  u" k3 |0 ]7 K* C
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + t" I7 h( X7 g
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ L$ e2 N  Q4 @' Y  P很多人都回学校深造去了
0 ~) B  p3 ~' Y+ x! ]7 P嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta# j2 A* i9 W* l4 D% I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 {& s4 L0 e( m! a: C0 Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& W! l! i* W% J% |# qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 b5 `: }( T/ v. W
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ X, ]* x% b0 D! M6 W2 {
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; E" Q& c6 f' a- P
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% }6 Z7 N' `/ H) Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" d, Z9 R8 t6 i+ Q7 g0 vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 W% k  V% c- g/ z  e: x1 W9 G3 Jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 c; B& u, M4 Z6 S. o- f/ A# \  Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 [& E0 b( A, j. g$ ^to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 O2 `. l2 `' Q: F' ~9 }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; u: W$ W% r  p! [' v0 [% Fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. C$ r, \1 ]3 u
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ a0 v8 f! n8 j/ f7 _
30,000 new households will form in the province during0 B5 ~1 f1 D2 r! [
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.  d3 P7 P7 ^! ?+ }
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 N9 x$ f' `. K" ]3 G
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* }0 J) Q' ^9 {6 T: f0 mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 n" k7 y( B% P9 `1 a: x8 v! Ahas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ R7 S2 \1 v8 p9 @: Z. j& c% ]
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: N  c6 f0 B! a0 h7 }during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& D9 r7 j# G6 O$ x/ G  n; \( T6 \
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% @9 E' T8 C6 ~3 M4 N; zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ c) z: U% N  K+ ^. `
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ e! L3 ~6 @/ g; c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& Z  \5 ^" s: q3 }8 Msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ U- |% e! g% n0 O: ^; O& Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: P9 O: y& F4 A  X
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
  p1 [8 n" w$ r, M  \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 ]+ j- T6 [' T$ j# u5 s* `unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 t3 ?$ J; _) w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 ~$ T6 ~  m9 t% c0 {6 A
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. ?% s2 [7 u! Y3 A( G) h8 h+ a1 H7 ?9 Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' `: _/ M) x0 I$ }* m1 R
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 W( H) p" C* q' |1 j7 a7 V0 mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! u; h" l1 R3 K! z7 E8 b- T* m2 t
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( ~! H9 [, o* ?
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ i. R% Y0 B. wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! D1 M1 y  ]: ?& M% Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 W/ G6 H" @3 Y" d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ T- K/ v9 }" c1 C) c, c6 O5 I2 jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  I7 z% r+ z4 b, v, l1 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 ]. ~9 s9 v5 {
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# z4 n6 ]5 }+ _# }- j7 [/ TThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 x. l% N- `1 ]) J# m) iresale price in February is evidence that past prices: y- z  T/ j" W" D2 N( I4 \& A7 m9 d
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 G! W& c2 c. K/ ^& H0 K% w  ~homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 r8 B5 z  ?& m! Pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 {, V6 N% K* ^* t1 ^. q( n, iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: B* r5 _# b: M/ p5 Z' f8 D0 B( E
leg down over 2009.
2 f* [& ~7 Z6 m3 \4 N$ `0 H" s/ g  L# t- `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 @- N  y* m  `3 D$ S) }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

0 j$ e- u# Y3 ]( W& J3 ~, L' X3 H1 s9 B; K! g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( }" {% z- E# |9 l7 l& q. B& c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子( Y3 M+ I0 n5 U
( [; ~2 A; C' X7 [! V- h$ t; E
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments9 I- t& _2 w" s. p/ [- `( R

4 [& z5 G  y, z3 _/ ~- j* S" z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-3 23:56 , Processed in 0.122108 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表