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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.4 `# k$ [# w* h& J( n

# z- o& n$ ~5 ~- u' LTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 5 v2 o: b8 ^& D( E6 _  c
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. + @/ r4 }2 N; a- w' k% e2 k8 X
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ( y: v/ `2 M( d. {

& C( n" I# z" m. i: }( ~Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ T; z7 f9 m1 R' z7 N" O
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.1 o4 o! B1 P# v# C
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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0 E% C! X& @/ D8 k8 ?TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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( k1 ~9 z0 ]# OTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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# o' a: j) Z& H[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: A( ^$ e  Y& j& u4 d* e; j' k
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 {+ b( F2 w6 K: z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ J' A1 p' F. P5 G* T很多人都回学校深造去了
( C; W" e( Q; l7 a# D; k嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
& M# g* W" B5 I! k; WWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 I# m9 A% M! @boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- {8 }: t% d  F$ v. l; oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ }, C1 x; X3 y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 p. \8 Y/ g0 z8 Y$ l4 X$ ?- E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 W) t: u7 Z7 w3 }1 C/ P
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 r; ^! K3 U% j3 s4 ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% Y7 z! Q3 n$ F! q8 W
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 K7 G% |! l/ Z! N
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" T! c' u1 `, B% v- V
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( z% S" H. k: `: B6 l& B/ Gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; B! W  t0 K, k! p* D% O
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& O1 t/ V( ]7 g6 Y: ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' T, E! l/ W/ o. E) V6 C1 ~5 o- g& }' p" nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 M. x0 b& s) U: h7 D8 }9 _
30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 X2 A6 H( x4 F& t- m# C2 b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 C+ T/ U! u, y! C; sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* w# n6 Z7 U: O) i- E
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* l9 `. v# p8 T# `- }1 Y2 y4 ?# j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) k9 Y+ q( E5 Y6 Ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) x3 t/ H/ A% p2 v3 `" S" D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 e- o6 ?9 E/ H4 }during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! s! `( C& Y! ]+ t: B. k7 csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. h) a' x( q, X& J( @* ^, v
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* f! p" m0 r$ v0 Z# p/ d8 Pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! `+ [4 i5 {/ R' A3 ^1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, l. a9 A5 k, T# q) l. }2 F9 Z3 csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 Z3 L5 O+ [; {5 K8 @" Tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( b; @3 I5 G) t: x5 @8 s' Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: F: R. M% H; s# J) y2 |4 uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 z) z! j0 J5 j+ S5 U0 hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 s) ~3 _! B! ^: N
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 z9 ]. o4 ^: i" i9 ^* |
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 y: m8 X/ G% d% T0 ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% o- j3 R( b: _7 b7 }9 b8 G3 D+ @of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; q* u& u1 a. erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 @) s  F/ L2 @% b) U5 K3 L; L: j. u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* J% e$ v' J2 t) L: Z& K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& c0 k' a' @& z  jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 k2 H6 N- @4 L3 u; `+ xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) E0 l/ x3 Q$ h: B
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
* M- H3 ^; Q0 e0 x# V- d! fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 s7 i. H* K7 z# t3 {! m; d
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 z' ]6 f  G, \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) P" ]$ J; i( h8 Z( K1 `The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- D$ P! N' U% K: f
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! j( }9 q- q. g! u7 v
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. Z) J% s* g% I% q5 nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 E7 h8 b& r1 ~! x6 m
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 n/ J. X2 s/ b5 m/ L- l/ RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- h' C; |. o) e' R
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" \) u: Y- m3 p7 BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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* Z/ z+ v; q: l! S7 O$ I" o" s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 P( L! a" h% P) r* i9 p3 f翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" o8 b9 F7 m1 j/ L7 W$ w' W$ d, Z+ Y
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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