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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ U& t/ L( g( {/ H, yWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 \1 v# V: P# V$ I |3 w
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* M& |6 S O. S; o1 ^. a) S% T- C7 [
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
* ~1 P) D+ y" i1 ]2 J% g% @2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) a7 Y- f2 s2 d% N+ ?% v4 a' qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) ~; q( V q* T+ o/ s& d
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' L3 c! w1 C* {6 lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, m# R3 L5 _; V. Y3 w0 bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: K, j+ E! d |pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ c1 {) @* l( [5 t1 v
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& R* K8 w; C3 P W3 x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# `3 N$ p) T9 ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) s* O( p5 `5 A$ G. ?2 Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( Z* `& X+ a: X& P8 t- K7 Ahomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, [. |) S) a) x& X1 R5 d# C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* r$ }5 S. B5 h7 x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) D* I; S6 F- j
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) E+ X0 i$ h$ H3 v+ _/ M, ]3 b8 H0 [
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, o# i+ b3 x; k M# Z7 nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
i' L" m! u" ^has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 N- C G' e5 \& u/ t! a hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 c2 b% P" G( P# B; \during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; Q- W0 Q$ _7 qsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: {* t) n" _6 Y2 a$ T p8 N* q* [clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 J8 X* ^- x6 \5 l$ I
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 o+ H2 Q9 e# s' W$ e
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) J) o0 c5 J% c+ {4 ?4 z1 t$ i0 \
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& U8 n/ y3 ^. gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 l# t6 x) _" Q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 S4 p; z d3 B' z- A
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) W9 P# M1 N5 i- j7 G5 b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# H+ j4 e! P$ o0 srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ f# o/ b- e0 U' x1 }3 M5 o7 Iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* N, ^& @& L+ A% p0 [) Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- H" k8 S, f* B9 D1 Q, O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% c* a( _% Y; p/ W7 o( s/ V- frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 W# p# J O1 X6 p9 R4 X5 N' X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 q$ u% k4 G5 l9 g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 F. [1 M2 h+ C* G; ~9 AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: { ?: e5 D9 |, U% f2 h4 rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. c {$ B- j8 S% j* _relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 S9 t$ x6 j/ t+ c7 V$ gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. l0 P* r/ Y# ~( u( V9 g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ a& R. [ W; E' K, A0 M7 I# \$ p
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 O# O& x4 S. x( a! h JThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, b; o2 s. ~4 W, X$ O/ ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* L& V, L4 h9 l! X( g0 { Rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 M6 n/ F8 T! X% r: `1 j1 P3 Jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, m5 } t0 x! f; c8 D" v9 [- B
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 L- ]$ f. Q7 u" M. r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# W. P( O, h6 ^leg down over 2009.- [7 L/ M" ~$ s: y+ u
; z6 R K1 Z7 F7 s4 [7 ]' @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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