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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
5 ?6 c' _* F8 l$ M. OWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 A6 L/ t1 v' ?% [
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 R2 L- b8 }7 U# d/ v: s. uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% z3 f5 V" O9 e
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ ^/ J& n. z$ N7 W4 Y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 g1 @* U- B+ J# y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! C U$ Z* W0 o# g& T: Q, Q, L
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 l- m# D. u% {. F5 B- ~ Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! F9 i% G- z. C% gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 x2 p0 Z' \- X; u0 n
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined) O* a* ^/ t0 ]
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 |* L/ `! U$ X' L0 A# a
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, F0 P% w3 g5 x" e# T7 X' O% Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 N' ?' j( v1 ^4 Phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 x9 }& V6 a6 l' A) F& s$ H5 l( K* t& w30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 ?5 @! x0 T* B% ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 P; [/ j$ T( t# v% v; `% OEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, [+ O' G; {$ s# Z! mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ x* F0 F8 U) P: o* O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta" a# I+ Q4 w- ^9 P9 j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 c+ Y( C- s* y* m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; {/ f- L E9 B/ mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 x! p* Y { I0 R7 @sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 W0 U3 R" ]; k( nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( |: B$ Z1 t# d8 S4 g$ i. S3 Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 K. z" `" |5 a; m8 z
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 f- @7 |8 d& n0 R3 b& |" T
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 I! u4 v/ d n5 p- E) L+ i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) Y" [1 G1 t5 y J$ ~8 p7 L+ Y5 k
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( m0 F: |4 G- d" S- B, i, N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
, j; Z8 T' ~. r% ?0 v* wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( @8 p8 D7 S+ ~7 E3 c8 f3 g
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% U$ @: j' {6 `- u' R
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" t3 D% Y+ E7 r; W$ v
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( y5 F: v4 `& L v8 V$ @% y, U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 ^* d5 d7 @ v: M* N) R
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' K7 k& b& O! E l2 R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- P# N2 t9 ^4 z3 w" ^
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ J8 |9 ^# Y" y& e/ D
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ q. Y* S) @. v, q( Bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# x$ K O) I, s% B5 Lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 A, a: A! @) P/ j
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# H4 s. M# P, J- p4 V) Athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& ]. x6 { D9 ]. i: h! R7 u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 O9 d! I6 s |. t5 ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
l5 ~0 s1 T6 l& Fresale price in February is evidence that past prices0 \, B# v* @3 o$ ~/ e: O9 Q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 W2 D- `( u: W" J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' U3 \7 s0 E' B9 \+ D! }" u2 {! cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 O" z' L k% i2 i# OAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ w4 M( Q! d/ E8 k. U
leg down over 2009.
! ^* y" ` m$ S5 l4 f: v4 J+ C) D5 R3 B) X9 G
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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