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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.. B1 @2 k# M0 f+ k4 d4 G
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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" O6 V9 K2 y+ yThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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* t) S, K/ i. N"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. - W4 B* c* J. z2 C8 k$ G7 Y
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ d- c. Q9 m/ x+ P# q, F

* u! Y- \: x3 V2 U' Y1 ZTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 t6 o$ H- e% n0 F6 o) B) z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ! B6 z5 p6 |* z: B2 d
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. Y" q  f& H, G' q% S

% H- |- T5 q# [8 I[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ z$ ^! u5 W+ x% d' [
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, b4 h" O7 ?. X) e. _3 w
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 K; G8 @0 o5 g6 B7 e% q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! P! C9 \! H/ Z% I' e/ u. m' h很多人都回学校深造去了) w" m: `: Q4 r
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
& @, @( z! a7 Z$ tWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& H5 ^* X3 G1 `% \0 d) d. e  Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 i- q& J: k* l6 t! ~) q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 h6 H. d1 ]( h) r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ u1 q5 L" Z: K0 l0 S
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# V" L3 C4 d8 H3 p; a5 n
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, {1 G- {% m0 [+ D2 u& M6 \
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 Z8 _4 ?% ?+ O  Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 `6 K8 V% a6 y% u5 w6 t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; {& ?/ v* {) aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' W; }8 R! ^) w0 d+ j4 Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; [- y. ]& p8 G+ {! K# F/ G/ X$ Nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- t0 O0 U% `/ g* Z5 @; P$ f8 oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) R1 u- K/ }9 e) x8 r# s% ^2 lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 D/ Z) \1 {% o. A- K30,000 new households will form in the province during1 g. t" t2 G3 o# A9 ?% u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% N7 O$ r! l" K3 {3 }Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( h. Y$ U9 g' U/ Z; i
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% _1 i8 v  q4 N( `  J) x
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
5 l+ U5 b% v5 J. p- S: v2 r* ?' ~6 Ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ N! y. T# ^: Rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% N; ~: T. K' C0 Z' Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( k% K5 f/ X) W( Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- ]/ J% W$ y& T' m$ _  w
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; c& I% Y( `$ r0 `- \
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* L+ K. O! q5 a% F: V5 \: V  \1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 Q5 }# [+ D: o
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 T9 d/ N/ w0 g! h. o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 P" L7 O+ ?3 a$ x% Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ `4 Z! X+ L5 _. W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 ]. f7 D# J6 i2 G) I4 p' i$ k- ounsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( u! P0 U( _$ Z2 n! f  Xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% W2 q7 \: y2 e2 q7 kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 E- p, I' z) V. f" Omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. K( b! W! y. r7 e1 C" u; E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 H2 R* k& j! l& F& s) j3 z2 Xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 \/ A) b9 t1 [4 }: TThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! O5 L1 d, K: i
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; a6 z% w5 {9 y! Y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
* z8 ^3 J$ k) c2 T' r6 y+ rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 \, z. I+ ~( b# N9 h4 p9 crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ n5 @0 `, Q- b  Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 ?* b8 S+ g. x: K$ x- d4 K5 q! K3 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- A% ^$ e5 ?  }4 {, p! C( N+ Qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ T6 G% w$ B6 [& x+ ]' y8 mThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 C2 [" j/ _9 I; G  S1 W0 {+ tresale price in February is evidence that past prices
  ~( [& `1 z& Sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 d6 ~6 U4 h9 thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. @) H% i4 D1 y6 z5 e' O3 d
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 J" Z; z9 ], Q/ I7 T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' }- [9 {' ~. p  v- x* O
leg down over 2009./ E% |& `( k- a. r

+ |) |- L" D; M: I: {; ~- \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ y$ d0 U4 i4 A& F9 oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ S4 z; L" W2 }7 F; X
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% P* T7 l: N$ z5 w5 |/ V" }: a6 uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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4 L% X5 x; e7 H; _! Y' k# U/ Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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