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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta: L2 R9 s9 V' L& S6 E5 ^$ ^3 V9 M0 ?
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* Z" J1 g! y1 b$ t+ z3 p- P7 Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% }; Z. f; I9 `, O& c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ F3 B. J* @# R; D
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 w$ V: H' B$ I5 n3 e Bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- a5 d4 |' {4 z7 L0 A$ D5 P8 c5 jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* G$ r2 Q5 }4 s/ w' othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) g7 I( M" T' O/ T" H1 H3 Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- f5 E& f3 Y. z2 G2 l4 Y; G3 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' H2 ]: G% N4 s" ^! p. Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! |$ \: B: o) o% a2 @" x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& U, M2 ]" b- Q% y7 Q- n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 v8 a" v5 a, Z) @
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
4 } b) ]( z4 x! R3 S0 S3 Phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) ~# H. U2 q" G# h; q
30,000 new households will form in the province during7 E$ k% j" | l: m
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) N' g2 W0 P' N' }Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ J, S, @3 K5 d7 I! U/ l" p" }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- j' W3 ~6 \3 b- R6 r/ Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* S# z5 P9 k" D: L( y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 v. A8 d% @- v4 uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' T J9 {) N- _" a# g" e( `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, }: _- q( R& @. B; ^sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 [/ l8 X! L2 |! _' pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* N8 s' v- @+ R9 S2 @# Rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 Y! g+ I% [! H. f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 D: o# s. ]; I& T& F# P1 m
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; l8 B- p) X# t4 g* w3 {: G
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ y9 | ?9 S: vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* x! x; M- f9 Q$ S+ Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. O# E& A3 `. I5 Q& n/ ?) Y! Q5 Tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' E/ [, f; z) g9 _' c mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. a2 D* j B. e1 n9 E" i
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
s) t# ^1 [) |# qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" P# o, X# ]" a. L: m9 y9 a' mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled" Z6 Q) n) o" v7 `+ }; F2 W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: B5 _) ~* _! |" Z" s( Y' T/ tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% ^% [/ l+ P, Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 C3 i% K! s) Q; s& B
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan9 m& P+ c$ @" E1 u7 U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! g! M6 r* A A) Xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% `8 f% v3 f; Z* b0 q9 T
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
[. I4 K9 x$ \9 C$ P. ]* Q8 Hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& s Y) }5 f: V; z- ?# D: Q; yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 i$ M4 w3 ]5 o* y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' n7 S' S; U# ?( g Y, c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 g; F0 R- y6 Aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 F& R4 w7 P# a5 K( s! d
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! ^7 J- {( O5 s0 u' m1 Sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* y% D4 V8 \: p. Y4 g) O/ D: r" u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 v( }: H5 m- n+ {
leg down over 2009.2 U) O. j) U" R5 x# b5 Y. K# ?# [
1 N4 I/ s7 k0 {- \
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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