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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
: z' X0 Y# V1 KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# X: p6 c$ U! kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( _; P/ ?$ @ q% ]1 |! Jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) `7 \1 H. S0 z# C
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! P% y! \0 B/ d0 `5 t! ]8 ~! r P
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 P- |6 _+ Z# Y+ v4 {# A; J7 Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 l- g5 u; \/ p W1 I" m: w# e
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, H. r6 E- E+ `& Z Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous) I9 L9 V( v# Z4 h' K
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 Q, f9 [/ K! F0 mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined D, j/ W$ S- I) |% p v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( `7 T1 G [& z7 W; H8 O
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 S1 V/ o) F0 x/ `8 Q# A; y; ^# c) X
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 ?7 a* x5 x2 {+ g6 Z1 ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! K6 ]+ @" |2 ^, w' I( A30,000 new households will form in the province during
" l; H3 I5 _ n* U7 W3 p) Q6 Q+ g2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 u- l* {0 N1 h4 j( j- ?
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, @7 _5 H$ ?' j, g7 T- Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ ?# J/ G; p( @
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ f, a. \5 k8 q# Y1 b2 K2 i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- y# ^7 B3 p7 h- d6 ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 b: }4 Q2 t" i2 T) c3 `5 c
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 U4 _1 v1 G0 _) F: H8 \! Z8 X- f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 P% C4 v/ ^* j& T* X
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 \9 f4 k" ^: T$ R; hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, t& u* C! @2 s9 m. [5 X1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. W# o. Y9 ~ O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 u0 V" i- g8 B* m
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 u9 A; H/ w* Z$ O( G; y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- l9 X3 V) Y+ q! ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' c( A M( M4 |2 w/ @% R0 T- K! T
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! C9 z% L; H6 a1 A
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 u* j4 M. }1 J: L4 h# X( I) U: e* aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- D7 m3 ]. p* J
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( ^" C0 B& j/ I( T# x
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! O+ o7 z" U4 t; {0 L+ _8 mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ s! Q4 x' |7 c4 WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" W/ y7 o! S# i9 q6 [' uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. E3 F& G, {8 r$ vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
' A+ L) M: U. r* phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ x$ ? J3 M& |9 Trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 L# y w$ U; Z% o
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) B' p, l5 ]* B6 j. g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) S% Y" S3 n7 B9 Z5 ?4 hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 Z. P/ L$ I0 }The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ Y8 x+ \. x4 p' ]/ c9 kresale price in February is evidence that past prices
' g( H1 r: }8 Z+ Q* H% [2 @exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 U& I- h2 p- n# shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ k; h! U, ?8 h# p& R. _; Z* i4 c# tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 A1 n+ a$ c/ d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ \; y2 V( M7 ~5 @1 W* ~& u2 U* k' Rleg down over 2009.# R) E( s) g! V1 B: t4 c' J
% L3 X# M6 o2 o# L6 j4 W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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