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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta! m6 }1 t( x) z: b, U) w
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ I B6 j! {& P, j m# Q1 Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
* |# y- z8 j1 V- D8 Qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& e: S. Y' H7 Z3 D8 K& {+ B% A+ w
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, K& I4 H% ~! G7 q, b
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 R( j/ R& s' I& w! g/ h" a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. P% P7 C* ~4 X1 F
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, Z* B* o1 B4 c; b4 R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: F' \4 R# M/ M5 B! v4 Dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 P/ [9 E U* C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. P) S0 Q7 \$ e3 x3 F3 j0 H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- G: T$ t% o- Z: l+ }% Y/ ]. O& ^" X3 Qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 B0 k9 g' w) C/ B1 W5 `. Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* ?2 ~ p6 h; N+ C0 o4 R* \: `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around( w/ d2 S& o1 Z, s
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 u+ ]4 \8 o% K0 b# O
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. B- E5 T i$ o* O& ]Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 g: ^9 M3 X$ a/ Jhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- e* O( Q2 O1 t' `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& r6 @8 {, r( d8 \- g% s3 m5 Ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 T$ j# ?3 G' b5 h" Nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; ^6 \5 l" G: o: w$ j
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 f$ a. X. y% X7 z3 ^ o
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" g; D7 A6 R" R) g* m
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* U* ~3 ?" Q. S; `9 s' m [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) m) M7 V/ r/ X# \1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' @5 M5 M6 r" L2 c: \. g/ ^& psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ C7 n) r+ K( M8 ? m
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 y7 E$ ?/ d1 c" N d4 ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: T& U% a. y# p2 S. \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ d U7 N0 Z+ v/ F) E, W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ i1 y( u( d$ h' h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" P6 C! U3 q o* Xresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 W( ?5 b. ?8 x, lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 ]7 K7 S7 V3 R* ?of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 M' `4 l2 D frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ E: U! t: g6 F% P8 _
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% \4 O# K6 q% Mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 }2 n! u, ^# a9 z: DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan2 H( `! K7 c1 d" |" b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 i. o. g$ ~% w) [, a, Vrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# I6 r* {1 F* M2 s$ q) ^+ Tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 U$ `; c7 ^! N6 L# k
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ \! y. ^0 K& U. D& p- l
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) A( Z- ]) C% W# s8 b: a6 KThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( Z6 P; M) }$ G: u1 s, z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* r* y& u* } ]exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 e" |$ @! w8 L- }homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: U% @! z4 @1 m1 ^' ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ e' U8 S. p% n% V& t0 R$ N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ X# [: z+ n8 p' |8 S
leg down over 2009.& F; d, }7 C" t+ I5 p: o( O N/ Y* X
) M" r) }0 d# O' f) g" e7 }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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