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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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3 d3 Q, _. S, H# {! N/ q5 nTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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# U, s1 N" J3 e% GThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , p/ f5 H" h2 v* c' l- y

0 j: `" p) R9 j2 s1 J! UNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. M( m7 M5 X7 A3 q
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( U/ u. i% d4 n7 C, k
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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: z7 d8 q" Z# }3 O5 L0 CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.( s& o+ x" }+ {1 L/ O

1 R2 z$ n3 K' o5 h0 PMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 d' ~$ ~/ R; u6 U3 C8 u
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。" f7 h, l) Z) i. \9 R1 \
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
2 U- E" S2 M5 u9 @, J0 I( ^, k跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

4 `& l( ^% V) E7 ~很多人都回学校深造去了
/ y, R8 o% r  K8 R; m嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, y" K( m3 y7 t2 g' L4 ^Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& z+ _2 d+ @, a+ i+ _1 s4 q9 ~boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# E- k: E/ {. K, I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- X& j! k1 Z4 T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& c. q5 y- W# m7 Tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 ]3 G  n# E! r1 K/ {* z5 vfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 d7 C5 N- j$ m) n( m! h* Bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ ]; @' v3 ]' pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. v8 @6 C. H4 u( npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ b- ^. q. m+ w: o  i. k1 V
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 n. e2 F% k! V3 {" |
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. ?0 P7 ?* b# \( H4 h1 \1 j9 `5 Oprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 q4 ?3 s+ s# C" @+ j6 k1 Z1 y, T
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 U" i" ~' }9 w+ m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 ^4 ^8 |/ w; D6 K: W, _. G5 {30,000 new households will form in the province during# p6 b# u$ A' K$ s( }7 d2 i8 n4 r
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# U& g3 \) M8 l4 r& E3 p/ g$ S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( Z, ~: N/ q6 a$ @
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 e2 r( [- ?. u. n2 o$ v* D! R; f# xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 l$ Z9 q+ k) z/ c8 ?) ?
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# v; a- U6 l( D; {) N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' X: g6 @- a, a1 ]* k$ D8 E+ |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- b3 E9 |3 H$ p4 r  Y4 _
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- `! C: `  Q' Q0 Z: D1 j# Tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 w: _' Q3 z1 L8 ^& ~5 Kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ [: \7 o; G5 F1 F- }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( \, _) D8 x9 j8 j, i. C( `
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, G. Y5 r: b! {# Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' B( C; m+ k6 A; Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 B& N0 y8 Y7 P. _' q4 uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- e9 Y/ n+ {& M; yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, |) l# W  ?3 N& v: qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 E4 u' d0 ^  @' P3 b/ u2 H, u
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; x; k8 a: I: R% a4 s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories  }8 A' t( m! R; j$ h) m- v4 C
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 t: g' n( F: {/ u" c6 Erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 D* G1 h$ x) g8 SThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# s0 w4 H8 k+ y& X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* ~$ a6 N6 @) N4 w1 UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( c. s7 q0 F% t  Z% H5 Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, E$ j4 c8 y, s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ B7 t' a* p) O# J1 R: m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even8 f8 U7 z, v3 I+ k
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ i8 b! y1 H8 y9 m6 T1 q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( S8 ~0 l( A+ F. Y- Q  `The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average8 I, L. Y- Y# U: e3 b9 C- I
resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 y/ n% K1 i% e( {  z; w' M  N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. ]  u8 @. S* G' Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( S# X& o' e# h2 ]
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 w; K( ^) Q2 I8 G4 \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) @4 |* V# I* p* Q4 l
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ u4 ]5 h0 J, J5 ]/ {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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* @( p: F. E1 G0 k5 E) X4 t( C* T' y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; J# w' T3 {3 C
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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) G/ ~1 c" Y: @1 N) Zhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments% \: T: R' m: s5 S. B. \) o* @

* L6 @: ~7 ?) U2 U1 }  l0 I0 x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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