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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ K7 t: x# p# d7 ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 S5 k! S5 Z! e/ C1 Y+ M* t bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& _2 A' d/ W+ s/ {
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 }2 v, i; p3 M% g! |+ ~3 i7 J2 ~) f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: Q: @5 ?" W0 P3 d0 Z: q! [formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& u9 }+ A" y6 O' {" ~9 y% Y4 Q. Wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( d6 L7 E! K' hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 P# u& ~7 I& G" F4 s: _3 wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 A" p- `+ @5 Z2 E( Dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 H/ k+ d ]3 ^5 G" w+ c
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. j. f6 V3 m; Y. ]0 B" b' m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year h) H% f# c% `
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 L- j6 v+ l4 Z+ P! h( l# j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 P4 n6 B, T' x' D% r6 ^' U6 bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 _" [ d) H H8 R; x* H30,000 new households will form in the province during4 Z) c: ~- T3 y" g/ w9 W" T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 X, `5 p% U) z( r6 K4 }
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, Q3 L! z! | v5 Y6 s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- f0 L" b8 z/ i7 R# S5 y% aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ Y, W3 W2 k7 l* L7 a! \* e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ t3 m& { r6 B1 v8 n6 w S0 s/ I
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) p4 v: I' f; { f. ?during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. V* s* n0 b+ A7 r
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 y2 Y+ s) u0 f: I* o8 r. t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( ]$ W$ k2 B- oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' x* _; y, q9 y) ~; V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 @/ [2 M$ z/ E, p3 g9 b5 S- Lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 i7 E1 C# @) I- X0 ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 k' }" H3 n3 q- m; x. V
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( y2 v* R8 Q, b5 U. S; E! Vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ ^! _" H: S5 G1 Z# l3 _4 z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! {2 B# u$ [; u+ t, w L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) i' P- V0 F. \4 v
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' t& ^8 r- M) l( s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 e* T( ^- c4 _" d$ Aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ l( b0 X% n/ C! @% {2 Erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! f- b6 N* d) H2 y( ]$ }( q, W
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# N! S5 a; T' Z; w3 y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# _1 P- r- I' _5 @( zAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 A$ f' j" k7 e3 f: t+ w
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" k- B6 G" r- F. t; \% \
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* U& x( @1 @3 P0 d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 p: j/ C* d3 ^9 A9 D' E
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
" S) C- s8 [& w0 X& Z7 N8 don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* ]. x1 }& h h4 y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
V' ?5 F1 G/ s! y' X8 wresale price in February is evidence that past prices9 K& B1 o! p7 b" i5 {
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' M w, x( E: C* @9 i& W0 j c2 q& V4 O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 T0 H) S+ N0 ^, u3 n; V b& Q; z5 z
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( C; x6 r' b* H2 h( b' }% O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 U8 q4 @' {1 ^% U& O. K8 [4 [leg down over 2009.5 c0 ]' `& u4 r% K, ?. u
% M/ D" c( v# y. h
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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