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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 @' A% X. [& ?5 w3 q+ t% |Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 R& W* F1 n2 |, Q1 V" ]" A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" ?" ~6 M2 Q' p- e. x
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' T4 P, v+ }) ?5 U( I6 _2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 o5 e. C, q2 J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 }; L3 X: \* t. }5 a: {. a( ^# |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* p8 I4 i4 @% ^& U) E3 e, h7 j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, L$ {* Q+ ] }$ f$ cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 p& z6 m! W6 n: X+ Q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( U' L& l+ u+ l! T+ r( g- C. u3 k rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 e3 U, Y$ Z$ y$ O9 v. f& H. Vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 \9 U0 r- T6 ` Cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ t: e8 ]7 G) m+ ?2 y8 l5 W2 j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ b& ~- ~; }% G8 _3 whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" Y5 k2 e' L, n# X. g
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, W/ |1 L7 R. R( y" Q# f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# t( K# w: f; I! a: aEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 Y0 Q# @" s7 a4 |
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 x0 l/ D: h, R) P
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& G: F8 M( A7 |% y4 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 O+ M0 N7 I2 y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 l" {. K% f" Y7 U4 J
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
: n; Y, A; R7 Q8 m) D+ g0 E: ^sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! ]% N( ~; Y# B1 H! v- Tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ ~: S& V7 d; U2 [0 u [# hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 ]) d& @1 V( m( @, z: U5 ?+ _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# y( j9 h- j. M* l7 U- i, ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ U L$ ] B3 N9 A/ Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) C7 M* K. S! y w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& n8 w2 `+ c+ Iunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 t" W% @7 b& y0 j, punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 d! i! J# Z; Z9 j. L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 F+ z7 l9 {) f& n% _8 K# X1 qresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 v" V. l H0 M8 L4 C8 smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ A% k) x& [# x. y& D1 j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 T5 X( Q# d+ i. M' W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 W4 n. |8 B. i6 z4 G2 [+ |6 qThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 A# A& d" _# }" y/ @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
d" c! i5 Z5 fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 K3 N) j' r/ F% W: K/ l! u
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! @2 [8 g' `$ ~* h" M: h8 nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' ^; j+ R: A& M. }) T( ?prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 m7 s6 I1 P' K% q4 S0 g9 ^9 w7 g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
" i9 k$ d: ^: w, R' ]# ?: Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* u7 T% U4 P/ {) v7 AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' W& s) X" w( ?) Y/ ]0 y M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
- L, F3 q* @- R- h7 P. l( texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; ~9 Q' L4 I1 q! w' X: y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, W8 b* K5 V4 |" W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 y( q4 @# ^. d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- e- [ ?+ ?& {+ h& k3 }) oleg down over 2009.
- l. P' k7 ^# a1 Y5 `
) ^' m p- P, ]1 k/ e& K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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