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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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3 J" i" r% k! XTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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! c! ^* G4 }' ?* [6 t' _% W& U/ _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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: i5 U. |3 ]+ F# F"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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& T) i) \2 A$ m& X4 P. rNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ ^; }9 [% l1 q9 p+ X

5 K' f  C) I9 V/ T( U* Y- i7 F2 u  }TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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2 L+ v1 }( R5 s"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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/ }2 h+ z, i' d& d7 |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.7 M) K; y( u7 s
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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& r; }4 t' [- U  U. [+ R& ~TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。- @0 T1 R' ^5 N" U5 i
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + Q# T" A- B- s. y% Z7 ?
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
3 b/ d+ H* Y3 H# E: d嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta5 z7 ~' v/ T$ A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* @' }( L% B! a, x5 i: Zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& N, V7 A) e8 O. C3 W, c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 m5 ~8 V' r5 Q* ]. r! p( _
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 D4 l; S5 ^  m1 C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ a  j0 C9 c" P6 H6 h4 Bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 T* L4 c; ]0 I+ R0 j3 p8 l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 j5 H# W% a# ^$ e) g  c" umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 Q) q: z4 o; r/ \! \. \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: z8 Y% J7 D, P; X5 c) Lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 p$ U3 B/ M9 n  R. S1 \0 h3 ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 @2 ~5 }* i0 x9 k
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( s5 o+ S& D  q% h
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- L) ?; T8 N6 @6 Yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 c% @8 k$ v; ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during* o: c, c4 B9 ?) _3 l* i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- B! i4 g) t% Y- p' ^! P; e! {Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- }4 i' w4 N# A; P% ~* U  P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 m  R, K, t& t2 L
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 `, L7 p! G4 _3 z' }8 ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# z2 q7 w# h, m8 c5 e% v" V8 ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 q6 t0 L) G3 j! v/ Y" wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 u7 ^: i% t2 a3 F# W7 N' lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" @" {/ O" T5 E4 I4 V3 u! s6 @5 y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* y8 c. V5 M' v+ v  n8 l# Z: u
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 f$ a, t. T) c& A7 m$ N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: z& \% t/ j5 G4 G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 {8 E) d! V" l& N
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 M' H+ X- F% u8 M3 m% ]9 M
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ K7 L, f2 g0 munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 C) f8 k+ Z$ H) Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) _6 p: @+ o- ]3 Trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 p7 R: j: G4 }7 I. w3 }
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! [' S: N3 C4 ^+ |; D# \* M
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% x% G- ], ~  y) S" `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) U4 }! y! [' k8 r+ Mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) w8 _/ m# i# `* Q* ^1 s' }' ?2 c
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& u2 Q2 E1 s. P, C4 P
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 H; b& P/ M/ B, t! h+ m; |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* ~. q: K" _5 g1 R  ?: h' m
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& Q& Z- J& ?, P6 N
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
! a9 p5 H$ c3 K& ~* ^- Y9 Oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, l" ?1 z  Q* d* y! {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; Y2 Y8 b& N  i( B1 z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 P& L) L8 M# g# l: mThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& X! [4 w/ L+ b: t( b
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* k% \- ~7 W4 _/ z' R/ Cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: K- O. l2 z) W: |homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 T6 e& B- `( e: Z. p) h. Q$ w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# B0 l3 D6 m  u) F
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* A; w( n+ k- K. S% R  g' yleg down over 2009.
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* m8 v; \* j+ F  s3 s) @2 X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* ?! I# ]5 h+ D* Y. h/ I
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ k; q" r. t/ m6 n& _% V
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子, m0 g0 D. o0 @. G
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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