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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* \- S! y+ x$ s# V7 k. N6 u

1 z) _! H3 O8 ?) y/ bTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
, v' K" y  B, {1 y( ]8 a& T
8 p0 l; b$ J5 p7 f) s7 s$ H( h3 pThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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$ v3 m) {" `0 t7 N"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
, [/ `. }4 t9 J2 Y; s$ P
$ f# Y1 u$ r' mNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
; \/ T( y; _( |  R. O& o) d% Q' ~, }. s7 Y
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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4 l) o& P8 @4 m2 {1 W: w& w2 o"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.5 E& n. I/ G7 H) g, N

& H, D3 V9 E+ N% l2 \Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. * t# G5 n4 P7 L& G2 A  v, {: t& i( B

7 i; p" R' m4 b! J* i" Q$ v4 k( {5 v2 Phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,7 [/ m; r" z. \* O/ }; Q  {7 t

% O: v! D  l. [: U" n. \: e[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
: E% G3 @* C$ {" C8 g9 k9 [ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。1 c( T7 c* m. ]9 b1 [$ B

2 U) r2 z: C1 t* c: N[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 " `  ^/ W) m. A5 K0 H. @; M
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了1 Q9 @6 I& [: Y0 k2 x. O
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" p) x% T) a( n& K4 w3 z8 B/ oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 q# \* `4 z- `& M0 }; B* O
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 a- ]6 ?& y+ p4 \( ?6 }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
  s& n- d6 i1 y) F- _1 [2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 B+ t4 o; O) S6 X& c7 l5 L1 U5 k; m: O4 }
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ w0 O9 G, N1 ]1 j( @0 T9 r0 w/ Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 o% k( Y) P& x; j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, {5 u! b4 o- i, r  l/ l% U; A) V2 L4 N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ ]3 e& v8 p: O  I5 X! Cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( \6 V4 m; r1 H  Y' s( ~: Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 l7 m- ]! \% fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ }. V7 Y# S! yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# E% {6 @- g  K5 n8 p& M
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 s+ w1 m# l- G% _. J1 x1 T3 h
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 o& _" s$ k* _9 o" H
30,000 new households will form in the province during  ^$ `/ f- E' P5 V6 I, C+ }4 q1 C! l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 T3 e5 k4 S" @- K* Z& gEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 u$ K* q/ w7 d1 ^) |* A' P/ l9 `homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& `  V8 h/ t4 J1 b, ?6 _% o% Q; V: I8 P
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 T! O! C. ]3 b+ l) J) dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# F8 S& ], w" M* |
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" I+ t* X. z$ U" [9 \  M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% c5 b5 K) [& Qsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 t, R. B' j; l( |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" U& U) g! p" o# ?' Texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* d1 X* P, S; k( ~; n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 W5 C1 g! `: D- e, n+ F2 ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& I) P) d9 c8 O- E7 b
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* q6 ?: `' l, L) W2 u& T
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% I) D! [' {# S( `' X1 `: Yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
* t0 ?) S1 j4 b  D7 _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# _0 E  [2 b1 R! S- Mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, p$ Y  A- N! W6 G7 r. tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ I- ~: M6 @% a0 N4 m+ {# C
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& \2 Z/ O( ]1 N) F1 i. _3 j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' N/ J+ k" S- N4 Xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; Q2 z( i8 ?( S$ VThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 L- @' W# l: H8 q3 V, i  A, a# {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' j; r, H7 k4 X7 _, Y: ]6 FAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ h+ A: x4 o& ~$ E+ \) J; ?housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 b" U. l+ L2 @
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) Q: Z0 ^2 x, Z! qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* m; w7 ^( _1 l! p' athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. \- b9 D3 ^& V* A0 kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 W# ]/ [! w1 S1 b; @
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 y" s; l% C2 \, z- q8 z. T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 f) Z; [0 \0 `5 d4 L0 d  p1 K
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 r7 d* R/ e/ ]! |
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 n1 C( Y" N- C, g& E3 ]
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 U9 G. a/ [6 M2 o0 q* ]( L9 P& w& OAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 O, Q' a7 ~& k' R* v0 bleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* r: P* q" o# B5 X& I3 M
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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) x% h3 o: M& @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 {! ]  q, e0 }0 M2 S翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* G+ }( D. G. }- n* F5 I
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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