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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 ^9 C% ?0 s( }0 _0 z

$ n( B5 v$ N8 f' `2 L" U0 y7 MTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
3 ]3 k8 H( _9 @/ x5 [$ W6 L
8 v0 W7 v% S$ x, O) G" i8 bThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 2 H% K: R/ m8 k- D

& M& J+ d" A* `$ [* ^# n"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000., A! X  x+ y3 R8 V2 Q8 q
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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" J$ x3 S' e) W. S; v+ ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.* n/ \3 i3 V; n  d/ k/ t3 [4 E

0 z( K0 d1 @4 l& q0 k. g& h5 g1 YMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 3 b; A7 Z4 v% w  \( C

  ?  G, x6 e0 u3 G! e- jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, O5 v& p; H8 y  x5 p% Q

8 a0 t5 z+ A+ P3 L: {- ^[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, q# t. n3 |) U 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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: E7 t8 o- ^. _5 E' L  y0 A& I[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ Z3 o6 z0 Y! z: r! a8 j5 R跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

2 r6 ]! V% A: p很多人都回学校深造去了
; F  D. R, E/ i1 M, E( _4 R嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
3 ^) n9 p; ^& P, ~3 o  u% UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- U. q$ E) K6 R2 o5 t7 f2 Hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( z. K( I% z+ i. bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 W% \- }: o6 R( \8 G6 U
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 {3 d  O; b# N  B9 o+ Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ E& B  U& ]$ p  V+ e2 j; ]: Ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! q" P" U" ^2 [the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- |; z7 C% ]! I3 F9 I  Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 ^( C  N1 J; d3 S. O1 H" F2 epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' P; c# \6 j7 N6 l" J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% W7 t$ s/ E2 V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( P( d% Q3 M* W# d! E7 \' pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 P3 @8 {8 H% g( S  iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
9 p6 @  I# k' ]9 Q9 vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( P0 _- r* D' c$ D30,000 new households will form in the province during
- t7 C& L& K- N% Z1 t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! Q! O# E! T9 @, H2 Q& D5 NEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, Y% n" _* m! s, X. _: }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( h; P: p! p5 Y) {. Tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 }/ D5 ^+ K) b" C+ }) E* g1 G
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% Z8 _/ p& n7 b) u8 i8 m7 ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 e# G7 L0 t8 p7 z. c( \" \1 o
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 J' j$ |0 T8 }- u6 K7 {" ]sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 \. H( @6 Z4 Y) ~/ s) E5 |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 J; h) e4 G  O- h5 O! Zexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ p: v3 L: v0 i, Y8 p5 W1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" Z2 N3 U1 k+ [- i. F. c
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- M  K6 a; l0 r7 f# J9 l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 z1 r! C0 a: x; X, S/ ?4 H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" w7 X* o1 u+ E  }& ^
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& X% ?8 ~9 r! lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ R" J0 v5 R7 c
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 L* o4 q. v7 B. F' ^% k4 I- i
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 k" o, f$ j! ~' W, e8 v
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) i0 S/ @4 J  c+ T+ U" |* \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 T+ L6 ?7 B' Y8 n7 }$ U% c0 p% s
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: L+ ^6 R$ R/ _% u$ FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 q- `1 ?1 x5 F  [* w1 F  \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& L* G0 a& Y* `; l! _- BAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ o0 y$ X- a( n# X8 Phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* G' s1 I$ N9 ~+ z: ~1 z1 wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 p( r0 ^  k5 K! o9 L4 [. Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ l/ v( o4 p% o# S% ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& l( _/ _) A6 bon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) V' P5 M3 `  g- j4 w! }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& c' d4 B! u3 _  ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices2 s0 Z1 Q7 B, P! n5 R9 Z  `* }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 a  t- n0 ^, V. }7 L5 H( x7 `homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 d: @  U6 f# r  A, C- m( sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 r- R2 M' S4 Y1 |, S) W6 {& Y% TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. |: u$ h4 i" E2 K, @' W
leg down over 2009.
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* W2 d9 G' }8 b; D2 J- B; v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 A+ W! \; e# L& x: g6 eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 {# V  Z6 m  o( l. R! N) e
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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, G. R+ T4 w2 o0 a0 Shttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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" k  @2 b" F, S0 p1 O& @: ?: Z% r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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