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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." \& u8 |' |5 H9 F9 x" }

6 r( W, Y: K( s) r* _TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ) Z# C5 |& l; B6 ?. w7 Y0 C

1 Z" Q: Q. J, d8 ?"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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' w+ S$ d+ M8 NNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
$ f5 y2 I, z9 h" y# c3 `3 |! d! e! ]8 o' C2 T
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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* Y* y0 a  x' j+ o4 l4 D4 F"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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3 n6 x  i7 L1 ]  QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.  ~( c! H# X2 m/ G# e0 f( E

, g: C/ x4 x6 m/ J, {2 G6 }8 ~Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 3 z# M' [6 F( x/ {: p& q

! ]8 d& N# V% Mhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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/ K8 D' |3 u# `8 R[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
: M; j; e, t% I6 v  }& m4 A 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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9 h" d9 e3 ^- S3 b[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * E6 k: C8 T$ K4 s* d" ^$ V
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ [6 z" `; Z: C: _, _" R6 q' c$ ~( Y很多人都回学校深造去了
# V# ^' {& V. @1 n5 K1 N嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
3 x& T: e% ?2 ]3 }$ F2 e0 t: E& CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 Z: c( Z* \+ j' Q; k8 b( A5 ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 v5 c- y6 I/ {0 o2 nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 ?9 W6 ^: ?* x; u
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 o3 }+ `! w+ I- P4 Z" F% d* Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 S5 d8 l5 u% z0 C$ C( y) Bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,  W( N0 ~7 G6 G( G1 O' D' c/ Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 t9 p# J' M1 a' n( u- T- x; Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. `3 p# o4 Q# q. U5 ?pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 H1 T# E2 h0 g9 e: X. }: ]precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- E8 k8 ~5 x# \: D
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* }& n; F1 `7 r) i1 N7 M  |prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 x7 t  z0 ~% J3 m  B5 x2 y& Hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 B8 P8 v/ S7 l/ F
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 x6 o& W. w7 Q1 c; ~& J7 q$ z% @
30,000 new households will form in the province during. Q$ i. b% g5 Y& f
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; k: |. @/ G: v$ L% f, eEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ X$ w& _) T% Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 P0 v7 n) C9 hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! N7 C9 L, N7 t! T, e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; r0 k. c4 c& ]2 H& o: C
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, \+ w8 C# ^; S- I* f: w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  S9 p) b" j" n! osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 e) a; q3 Y5 \* p0 H" @5 h0 S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! X5 g3 Y# d9 w$ L3 a
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' m% n+ `. a; z' b: b/ e1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ D& K8 b2 K( d; w
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ b1 o& u" y9 ^+ K- v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 }% p8 e1 @( d! E9 E4 O2 f/ Btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) R( ~3 q) Q9 ^/ B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. W5 e6 l( a; S+ m  u! s
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; u3 @% D! x0 ^) I1 V/ j& n/ trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# B" q  Q- {- O( g- l& B9 o8 U* dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 R5 B5 \$ ?# O- Hmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. m; H- f" w6 o- S8 |5 ?of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 D; {( |, r) D3 frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 a& ~% V- ~* A& z  `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, {& f0 R# d1 d* j/ C9 R4 I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 D+ E, h3 ^& ^+ s0 e' _& JAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan3 y* h; U" `9 a* r( M! T% w
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 c" r. `. a3 G4 M* s& Y3 o5 d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 F; E) B3 k! p; D
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ Q! {) \& m% S. t, Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: t+ s8 F2 }) u( yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& z' X8 d7 j- u3 O) g9 Z1 G5 I% yThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ U* E! I* `% r; n. \% @resale price in February is evidence that past prices$ L* W& b  M9 h
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( `' F% ?7 d4 C6 V0 @2 m' j# F
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! m- r  f( b. N# Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ {4 r  p, o) K" p! lAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( T( s* \. ~; _% g6 P
leg down over 2009.
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' O+ l& N' x" B) d( D+ H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ B" }. m) V  y0 ]6 F; V  [3 a
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. |6 U/ @" }2 k, O4 ?+ N翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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' j* N% e5 Y5 l  ohttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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% l4 ?  ^% [" {; _* |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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