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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ e3 s' ~ s/ D! z4 \* n8 o" WWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* M0 \0 P; N) w) S
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# J# \" ~- X! N
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 u- |4 {7 Y, m( r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 x9 z" q/ g$ h# @2 |1 Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 d) s8 G' m6 a4 S0 i6 k) Hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ w5 C: {& V6 d- R/ i% r2 \/ h- W/ D0 `
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ O1 c. @7 H$ U4 }7 T
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( z6 h% O; B0 D$ G: z. G. m _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- X4 |* W5 l6 ~$ s# l. P, C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: Q6 |" W' ^+ l( E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- _/ N6 o% z6 \2 k# x
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 n( d, L( j8 l/ i) Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- Z% A t; e* Z7 U5 r* t/ P- vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 z$ i4 x1 g) H0 w" p) |
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 h) N/ s) u" K, O. \ V1 `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ |2 K8 ?1 `% p& Y4 j e" K" u! NEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 U' E: p! a9 I4 R1 c: ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& J. K& S& f: O+ ?& D d% n
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
p6 y2 X! I) k8 l, [- hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( T1 J ? {. I# H& uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' G; ?! h" v) R v% jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) w0 \2 b/ W" L) I, ^6 U. Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* _% Q6 Q: w+ [6 p1 V! l/ z$ E% {clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 `, c# L6 W6 ~- D, k% |8 Y9 k
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. S9 q, q+ c Y8 l6 P3 I' {* x+ X
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- |/ Y9 |) b. }
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" ~* c) Y( f$ S" q" hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! L: P' }2 x0 V
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. a) N. J6 U; Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. ?6 S/ z) F6 v7 N- b( @: `* h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 H' u# w: Y6 @2 W% B( Frecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ U9 t% `7 o1 g6 Q, e0 M
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
x2 {7 D1 R6 S3 O2 w1 Ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( B$ r# ^1 A0 c6 B2 N1 u( r' |of new singles, and, with demand having cooled B& c8 w) c" ~/ Z( \
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! Y2 `6 M1 B& `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 B6 l) T) {& c% cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. r2 I* v5 L: z5 G3 r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
. W2 _8 L7 n! ^+ S j! o4 f9 ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 }3 i7 N* a- q# t4 `! grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 g' y. G0 m7 j. Gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 ^7 k& Z- h3 c( |& J! tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( v6 T: }1 v* hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ ] h$ A2 {8 c/ YThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 X/ i( C5 r7 x; Hresale price in February is evidence that past prices$ c+ A6 d' l. J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove V6 Y9 H/ X/ W8 _$ R8 l# u
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 } Z" a7 F" j' x* Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 z7 v" V' O1 j r T% FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# K$ J+ B, Y/ n1 T
leg down over 2009.* U/ m8 p' p/ M, r! `4 U
2 h* h) a+ g+ s2 g# s* ~: P. r
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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