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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta/ _5 E1 l S# P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! y# [( v$ t. O7 ]5 b$ L4 |2 A2 u
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! G) R( _9 V; C9 } nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: z) Q8 v( u0 f u3 Y7 }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 h( a& s8 ~; M, q' z% t$ \9 Y- Q4 Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( f" d: R: O# \7 A2 }& [from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ ]# l& X% L3 xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# s. y! o% V1 o) u( i: H# vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! Z- u$ w) R$ V# r- R H2 qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( Q$ j0 u7 F9 |" e7 }) D; ]
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 o0 d6 {& K" S2 qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! i4 N; F3 g: m) q0 w1 ~5 k
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 w- Y( s/ k* k% W1 ~' nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ C' S! B1 t/ x/ L& k
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# T: P1 b v5 k- S |
30,000 new households will form in the province during- w9 V0 r0 {5 w' t! @) ?9 H9 H
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# N! G B' b* B3 S; K/ m$ n1 [Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* [6 U8 E' v6 B o I! t, z, b3 dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 K _( t' X' L8 j% U* N8 u T
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ C O" m$ _% }7 m* f, F6 L
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( j t: j- e$ w: l" r
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ Z. S8 `$ G5 e! b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 I! W9 O3 E9 ~7 T- t) csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( h7 G' j, @- W' e9 D sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% M6 Y' w& l6 X* L$ [excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* a6 e: ?* a8 ?( y V! D+ D
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 D# A8 U( R4 k! `2 e4 t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& Q4 _% {9 E3 u7 E" e# }buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 B8 d+ S# D9 B! _4 W4 i! a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# e' A* P% P) c: W) \; B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( s" t t {( G( V7 j- y3 K# {
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: X7 }9 z% t: e' crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ F6 D5 f0 ?* aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 x; @* E4 i5 G( O Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! @$ g% }8 j% m7 Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) L' ~7 @1 e, b8 T/ C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% t0 A6 c, e6 Y0 @- K, k
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. J0 @# ]2 M! a* Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' d1 ~" K5 L" @, L5 N9 d# h1 J! wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: K8 E8 R) u; ?5 Ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ Q, W- |1 w& i( }
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ \3 Q4 T8 F% bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 f- \& p# G7 m# |1 Q, Wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% R( i! n) s1 Don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 \# K7 ~6 N/ n( k6 NThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% i) R- S' H4 T, M; J8 v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices$ i, m. @* o, b) V# M4 B. y+ s7 t$ V
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 h7 b6 g9 Q# z( a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 U B1 w6 Q1 u( ]deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& J& G4 {9 d/ z% P1 Q) B0 SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- {; t' ~- x$ l7 E& }7 ^9 _; K5 oleg down over 2009.) r8 h' X! y- ~, p' `
, B2 C" }6 V5 D y4 r' F* z# g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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