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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ; [9 @% p( u4 I  y* C" @
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 b: M8 R  M7 r3 Z4 H4 Y

# S+ u: p; ^" |3 \* X1 G"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " y" G1 I% K7 a

& L& n- |  P- I: @# hNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  H2 o3 U2 _, x$ D; M* R# @4 p+ K
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 ^/ M5 D* r2 t$ Q* e- C0 q
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 9 v0 f3 d/ E! {* X1 L
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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6 q$ d% b; r6 L+ L# r2 G7 @! SMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 ^# ]  n- M. P8 ]7 x

9 ^& A2 a  U. W" T2 ehttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,( r7 Y, @; ?" }* r( r6 V( J% R* F
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
. S& T. ]8 J! d9 b7 } 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* e+ H! P6 M) N3 H
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- n2 y0 ?+ d% y# g跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

' P8 `! F: M0 x很多人都回学校深造去了6 ~7 p( Y5 F  W- g0 w
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
+ o) D$ b- @6 b$ w- zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' q3 q  Q3 J& b: x8 m. S
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' d/ S) m4 T$ |" b0 J/ Sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ j7 i) n( f7 ~. U% `
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" ?  b# W7 y' e; X* Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
  c/ H% D4 W0 s9 \2 xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," q4 B7 ]$ r' V5 t0 M
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! I5 h2 S3 ~6 t2 Z  C7 F$ _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 ~9 j' X+ }  `6 O! Q! Q3 P' `
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 P: F) S5 X' d) a% N  e6 f0 p1 @0 Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- q% f" A' p, _
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. G4 p3 E  d& e4 W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; D" C/ x2 W+ Z  R0 `" U
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; b2 }0 I2 w" J2 t& q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ }2 Y8 S/ Q$ ?: p* Y
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( I% F4 _4 z9 _2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 B3 M, o0 k' B, r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* S+ e1 C8 C3 {homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) y9 f3 C0 c  ]& p  ~during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  b2 k7 a, y. w7 e' \6 f
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: K5 A3 Z/ t# Q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* y  K$ e1 t8 I1 E9 }9 Y* J% v9 Xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! p) S; X& j% ?' Z& A2 s& Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: c# q  i- J+ A* A! \" i" Z7 w3 x
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ V6 h% O% E! ^3 y& n' }) Eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. g1 F& Y2 e7 M0 [  ]* z% @
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* [+ f' M- s9 ?5 Vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, O: }  V+ M% n; K2 C) c- x" Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 v, W- d$ i) |4 o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& t4 _6 l1 t' _3 @% D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 S0 S; i4 j$ t4 [5 P/ I5 z: O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ C, \: F' @( G) {8 q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 F+ [: D0 @+ t+ ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 K: @, n: m. Tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 |% K" T5 y$ ?+ ]
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, u) X" v4 Z& C$ T, X- f
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# z, L4 b3 ~1 C* W* I5 e  NThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& `+ k( ~+ H; k+ t& M
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, S- X3 X3 G7 j6 l4 ^% bAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 t, u1 b' G5 j. a2 Q) F3 f% w: z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, i: V8 s/ `$ L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 \+ i+ j5 ^+ y4 z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 x% F7 p6 Y% E8 ?
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! |8 L: L: M6 u, U( [4 T' w3 V
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 P% ]( J4 D2 q. H5 j8 iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average  z+ b, A4 B% m' s/ N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* x8 j" \& E& q0 Z% N+ f6 D
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- w- h! @2 S0 y) U5 s/ p4 ?
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; W4 b5 _, K& \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( ~+ o7 \1 }2 m# L# s% HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) _( X# O6 {! }. U3 ^% @9 Qleg down over 2009.
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9 D# [: A1 }( k$ P! w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ i2 G+ p: F& D1 z% l- LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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8 A7 L4 Q& X( T# {# c! g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 b$ y! s' z+ P: l翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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' _# L5 I& j9 Ehttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments* S$ Z/ g- V0 J* P4 O. r0 |4 Y
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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