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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
1 a. h3 `8 r! G8 hWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* F/ R0 I# d6 r/ O- aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( h. `. I' d9 U% X1 O' w* L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, v$ |2 V' e4 U) T! o# Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- `: d8 F; \3 A" t8 l% n' m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& M, K: W* g9 s( r+ ^3 u/ o6 kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: x. ?" b& n% {" g! x1 p9 h
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' O8 t) V8 m: s$ {5 }
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; I( P. {" v6 ~8 ]) a- G3 ]* Jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 U+ Z+ W% O9 y1 P
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( K8 S# D% p/ i; }0 ]
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( ]9 r4 U9 i/ _1 D/ d$ r
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 i$ i9 ^6 I9 k7 P) xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: C( ]$ a% M( ]/ ?' Q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ ~# X5 P2 C; f# b( f1 K) L+ r/ ~
30,000 new households will form in the province during( Y1 L+ }1 x& v2 Q3 Y' Y3 W
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 f; j( Q! r* u8 Q( J+ N9 [ I
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& o% X, |+ b$ i9 F% Q0 A
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* ? L+ B7 X/ w, i, sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" K- F6 P, R5 G3 Z3 q phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, l% f7 g0 X) a; P' U! S7 H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" ^* T4 ?, m# X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( m) x3 ?2 I7 ^2 P' e+ Ksales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* h$ f: h4 ~& wclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 o8 R0 L( a- c2 mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; U r' F, E/ S3 n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" T0 i& R9 k( l$ _
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) x# d+ ~$ I& }$ o3 } Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( a* ^, U3 S5 |4 r9 g: G1 k
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 ?( r( o( g$ Z9 }+ V6 Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 Q( d. G" Q2 b3 ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- b; x0 n1 d# b/ Vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 p4 n; [) f: t- ]3 H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 P z% }% C8 n, |$ k- S
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 p' N7 n9 d) ~
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 ?- ?: p* v! T) Z* J Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 J# j E2 s. N, d2 g1 DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 |" ^2 \+ J, }) o9 e2 m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ m1 S/ ?5 \( e) H @0 hAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan: j3 j' ^$ \) E$ O, A0 \6 H8 U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 }' B( x) ~8 Q$ m8 z) x
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 _! p8 n7 t, z" L2 B8 }5 Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" ]" M* V. E: }4 ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 W! D$ k( m/ Z2 h2 Ion average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." `) ]' c# {0 |2 }0 w
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, v5 W2 r6 T1 G" q h5 B- b0 O) r* vresale price in February is evidence that past prices2 }& A- [$ V( L& W% G
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 g( W$ X e% R8 }% _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" e5 c5 q$ b- g* S: m' t
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: M: L) L0 V& H* T2 T* v: hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ h6 w; W2 _7 m7 Nleg down over 2009.) N. U8 b, a7 |" X5 R
% p- B2 \1 Q3 P) q6 g1 s6 g: |5 p
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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