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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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8 r4 w3 m2 U3 v9 i# i% [TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! E7 ]/ ]. z5 b$ ]( _
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 l. C+ r! a& i
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. / b8 h( U% [! n- l8 h! X# R$ C& C
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 0 L, Q/ j" e- Y! ]

( z- \4 d1 `0 U" y! G  nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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' O) A( l  [" u7 w9 X( y" `Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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: E" r9 {, s9 }$ shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。9 y! k; z0 C2 |: Q6 \3 C
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; B& g% P: O2 y) t

; P" e* p3 ~& g) x[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
4 Y! r3 i' M5 u# C5 W. e跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: Y, o3 v6 R7 Y很多人都回学校深造去了& P8 I! f$ ^* D1 x6 v
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' b! A0 ~! N* g' f$ F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# ~. a3 Y+ I- U) xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" s# K9 g" B" u* [/ ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
* x8 _. `( p0 C# @, ^# o) J7 M- a2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 N7 C9 m0 t4 [+ I# g5 u8 t# _formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 v6 H% O) Y* cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 S( F; t% Y' s! `6 D# |6 |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% C& }1 q/ g9 ^4 L0 ^* d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- d" k5 M7 G7 y. `0 p
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 `5 C% w. o9 _  E8 Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' w; I2 ]+ M3 }, v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* M$ G; t1 e& X% X: F9 bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 ^9 A9 h+ R8 s  X) Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 J3 L2 ]% f  }3 W# {3 Ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. s  T6 a! d4 g30,000 new households will form in the province during. ^0 @: v. c% |
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& ?. a$ c' \9 y/ [/ S+ s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 B- r5 v/ o2 }. ?; `: G
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, n1 j! }0 S5 t7 }7 R/ N$ X% Kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. Q3 A/ |3 X2 x5 t, o4 c& mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( ^9 H' U# o3 [4 Y  B0 u/ E
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 r! S4 m$ U" Y4 j  X, R0 Dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" M* U$ _; u, n5 S0 F+ ^5 V3 lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" W# r2 n% U  S3 M! X. A
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ X8 l" e. J  u8 C1 F5 B3 X: `excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) A0 J3 C' f  ~8 u
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: F4 C1 u- {( P/ v! ?! e; vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 H  u  K0 d' S, D' Y# kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 X1 g- S8 X/ H6 ^8 ], K$ M0 q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 ~# _- {7 C3 Q. e8 H3 B" P
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: q( T' C. a- C) b5 R) Aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 C$ F& l% t$ b  f; orecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 h" w0 y. h3 ~4 A. I. hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# Y, J# _0 f7 n
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ ^) y' P. J9 F0 }. L, n
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 G" E# ~$ G+ l* J. urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. s6 t* ?, f* J7 i# J! \2 b1 z  KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! ^5 \& p7 q+ ~! k& h
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 r% U% H' p# \) s( r# z& K
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& v. x) C4 n6 R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* I3 p' u  m4 F3 i) o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 H0 T& W1 U1 ]* Oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even& c; g( L5 ?$ p% w+ d- _: A
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* [. }5 R5 C: a+ _4 F- pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 U# J1 V0 c. N: Y/ j1 J3 |
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 S% f/ y6 r. v4 Q1 {. z8 y2 w6 K
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 v( M7 ^2 [! k3 B9 b3 Oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, k0 W9 l/ h5 y" Zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
  A! o! n4 @+ J1 fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  {7 ?) U/ R* j) `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: Q) f" b% }6 s: R  s
leg down over 2009.
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; I) I! T# O; Q8 D8 D8 Z/ F  _[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 J1 c6 Y5 b  [- I# QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 e% V9 p5 ]! H- H! `; Y/ R3 B翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ o/ D1 J# ?' b5 D

- r# i! \, P' I0 p' qhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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! _- H" f$ D4 q6 M/ z: M. `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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