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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ d6 V' b. \( V9 H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# M* Y9 S3 K/ g* x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! ]- {- ` m$ E' {. P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 I$ \; h/ h4 K* J; \2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' O, r5 t1 X5 K: U" I) D% W ?formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 D0 r% b5 F" A* Afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( A7 Q0 V$ n0 a+ u8 ~
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 J' X- N. l8 ?, emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 h# e$ ~( e/ E) gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 A" E4 ^+ ?6 |7 Wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. @' B& Q. N: N6 y1 Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 g% Q% J0 b) S1 Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ Q; v; Y5 ?" F* z% q0 t5 h6 q3 jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# ]) a4 z* G, U+ T* C3 k( i/ m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' w j& I/ k; k. f' ~30,000 new households will form in the province during; o/ R3 I K/ _( }* G
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 ^9 K" a4 e# h7 `) REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' o+ M3 G, ?8 M+ t" Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 L3 P6 N1 o8 k$ }" q1 g5 i
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% Z0 x$ V. Z# m; B) L' ~7 e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) Y" l0 X* V4 S( `8 g8 }" b* Y$ c
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. V( }+ n1 V V8 X: V' uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 K: \) B" m2 lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" |5 N$ c" ~* E, l* ^clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 v' B- g/ Y3 o: t% P; y; w: \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 k% A# F# z. u2 v3 H" y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 o) i6 g! F; I1 s( u9 V- xsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& H( @. q& |* \$ d5 u8 o8 {/ Bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; c. X$ T* `# v/ Utwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 x4 D0 h( s1 J0 B* h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
* |; S7 O* W& Y9 |! T0 m0 a2 E7 Dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 c$ b) i2 n. O
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 i' P- X& |) Q' p
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 _% ~! ?9 i/ f0 I% A0 o% l7 ~major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 a: @: G4 |7 d; R
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 T/ l0 K4 t# x1 F7 p3 Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.3 C! N9 f P' k. n" w9 S0 Z' R% k
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 z, o: l4 O; }
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." t, m! L9 t7 ?5 G" y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan9 k% y1 H. o8 e. u) A& y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) E; ?' C( \% |; `6 ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ \ G0 F8 C% h* ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 M2 h7 n8 ?0 B. B# q- `& e$ c2 Xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ ^( ^8 F7 \+ D) |. h9 Pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 p9 ^1 L9 I' S3 J% l& N
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- A3 N" m! H9 g' Z, F! p1 D
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 |1 E! N8 A# c4 A( e( {- Q& Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# I( V) [; v7 s6 _1 M) P
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ u$ S3 z: ? X* G B& U$ a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 b, D n! m& x3 F6 z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 S& z% b1 ^* y6 ?- U2 S5 ?leg down over 2009.8 A, { S. c% O
4 S7 n' r! n, d. r5 J
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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