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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta, ^/ @7 c1 d0 ~
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: V$ @7 F" t; Z/ U% q3 [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 j: u4 ~2 t. Q& Vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 f* o' T: e+ g# T! f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 |/ Q; E/ \* s9 G% Fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ J2 W( b6 w8 I; D! Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 f7 ~5 ^: @. P% e, T7 j. T
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ J/ y( a/ t9 X# Tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 S1 N5 t$ |' P
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed M* x) \1 w, D) w% N8 S
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. p3 _$ [) z: K X0 ]) Y/ r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: h4 k# P3 x0 m+ n9 n6 `prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; c' l/ H$ {6 G' |1 \& G; B$ L- B0 Iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( c- Z' R" @5 Z+ `2 O( shomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 X3 b) a% V/ ^9 T: r" B4 x3 @
30,000 new households will form in the province during) _( ?. Y8 m/ W/ {8 z, v
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ C4 D5 n4 @! d9 V T& A
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 Y2 t- u' V' I/ [ U4 r+ g D8 I
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 K" ]5 _" U- `/ ~7 f+ e
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 o3 l5 J: n$ a8 n/ I9 W
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, F3 Q! A5 o( k( @, U) q- y! Rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 L4 X q; U& q. z/ ^& {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ j3 q: b$ I. T' E2 z; I# w! Ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
Y0 k. {5 g+ Pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: H& k' m7 q, `# }; p- b, ]
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. B8 |) q" Q* Q( z) W5 Z! [1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' ?3 d# p: d/ g6 ~( j8 lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ o3 }' n2 G8 L7 L ]2 b9 b! @: U3 gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ x8 n5 C9 w& d8 P2 F7 }9 Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* Y7 [- p; k4 k) xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. p/ i1 H$ e! |4 _
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ ?6 _6 N/ @' G" P* i5 w2 {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the @6 X' s: X, r& i
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 d W8 g' k2 ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
Q2 D0 a7 ]0 r* w% Cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ Q7 a. [4 q0 u/ r
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: M: E) ~8 ^6 ~5 l/ Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. H: [; Y0 v% }2 C1 K0 B H. |$ h! U
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) I9 g3 @ |1 ~ R# ^ d- d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( r" S, Y7 p" _ ^2 @
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- x' E3 v! @( a' {+ c2 h0 v
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' f) d; Y& c* B) _prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 J/ z, H8 |' H2 Lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 m+ [& W8 A. B) U" N8 r. w) Ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ I+ A& ]# w0 @+ L& D1 B
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; p6 [) T" k* Presale price in February is evidence that past prices
) O1 s9 M K j- J5 \exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 U" B2 k- C" c0 ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 D/ ~3 K, b6 {4 D9 W8 Ndeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 T1 G4 I7 N4 ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! I" V; Y. E0 C( x+ \2 uleg down over 2009.7 ]' K L4 _, W6 I" s
, |# v: G/ F4 M' ~* {
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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