埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2369|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
, b9 |0 y% |( I
# k( J$ W9 G) c* JTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 5 }6 @  ~7 K9 C4 n, P8 B6 Z

' H" L2 q0 A$ G) @The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
' _2 y/ Y; i; A5 _# T# q% a+ I; \0 {2 P- _6 M  w2 g8 E
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
  O- h! J+ R# S5 w+ m1 _- C7 D* L2 c
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
% A7 G1 n1 T  [" C* I; B! e1 C4 ]. X8 b$ D* B
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
; K- Z4 D* Q* n/ P: w: L- {& P5 d/ c. @  }
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 w. \& {; w' z1 ~7 C

! O. }4 l# K; f8 V4 I+ }; QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." W) Z, k& z- [2 M# j) q  j0 s
( J% O4 y3 e# r5 n0 S
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ B) ~8 X4 b4 E. x

( c' d7 O4 z2 _" lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
+ k: q# N/ g% l3 y. {  H
6 h- B  ~& X+ J+ {
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! r$ e) p8 O' z6 d+ k

4 G9 V! w  P7 S% T0 Y5 v[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
- G' }; D; c- L! a 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! I4 X/ _* V2 e  T% V+ ^0 ^
  v' A" T; s# u! p. C. W) u
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ G3 r+ \( h) V/ ~* C$ N% K跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
0 r1 A2 F+ s2 t6 s1 w6 g; u
很多人都回学校深造去了
- J6 Z1 B  N2 I7 f嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta: n2 V$ D: s% Y4 b. q; O  I. o
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 t3 j/ X: g* h
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) A) U" {! A6 R. t- |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 p$ {: r8 k) |: W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. U0 }& R. }$ p% V7 _. y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 R  W  f) g" t& ^
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 s+ q; x/ E- b# ^, O3 m* Y  kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, m( k" Y$ x- @8 \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ a- U0 K9 }: ]* ^0 j: N
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- e+ o* O; U' K+ G5 r" l2 Z3 Fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, M7 k+ v, e& L9 R4 h+ Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- D' F5 I5 C# s; N: e; |) s, @$ H
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ ~) p" E& a9 c! i+ Qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# _5 H* u5 |; W4 X9 D' r- l
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. _, V( l0 H# c30,000 new households will form in the province during" x) v; y% b( S% s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( Z4 |0 K' |8 z+ O$ e8 L, zEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 q9 N! y% g+ o% K( Ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, K# L8 n( W* o" V& x- ^7 E  g
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 o6 o9 U, D# p; r' R
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" M+ C9 D  V8 ]# b  ]
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: O. [3 T/ D4 y+ E1 a% X( ?1 N. _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- R4 U0 e8 |( R1 P/ u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( ]: v- }/ B0 {* [$ |- m6 ~9 ^& u' a
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 T. B; k- m7 X- n+ `
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ K" S/ H0 v2 l% c8 t7 W( ]: s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* x* u' `4 ^4 i+ R1 f" Nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# q3 d6 m5 T& y' O( Qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# z5 C; u. c; C% C& c2 [9 ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in  ~# S/ }4 D, i* p4 D" ?2 \
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: m: N. F( N$ Q8 ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 z, Z) B2 Z7 u2 c' ]$ w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ [' X. z  [- i. {# C1 nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 Y* {: x, N; c" I! K, M6 smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ E- ]; U) [. z: {  tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled- N* a5 _5 x9 h! g- W& u9 C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 h: Y& ^+ r# ^9 s1 e( z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s  p# g& [( s$ {, Y& }9 M  m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& U, y/ q9 v- A2 A4 Y" I4 Q5 ^( |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 t2 ^' ]9 E( ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 }9 f: [9 ~0 o, {7 {6 p1 K
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: |9 p& M" ]3 O( i9 h2 q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 c4 W; H* h% B) K( E# @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: _) c+ i8 z+ d4 f1 F+ d# |
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 k" c" r( b* Z. y. \8 xThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! \1 Z: w$ G( X2 t9 f' [
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, n/ F  k2 S* R
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 R- d2 p$ j+ |0 Q. h) z! Qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ e; F( u; o( c. q2 ]1 }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  R3 I+ Q& \6 F0 ?( D- R2 |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; e# T, C' A: a9 Q  Xleg down over 2009.
6 O4 E9 C4 B0 Z8 \( I2 U
& E8 a2 Z* M( b" a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- w5 t0 g; T( y+ m! x- H& t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

$ B6 H6 n. E# C( J! w% s+ W, p% I5 t+ `3 @1 }3 I
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  v. B7 k* l- M* Y  J' ]翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
8 J1 h+ D  i3 y7 c7 o' t. H2 B, @' S! B0 V2 n& X0 B4 M4 x
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
3 Z( M/ t  y: z0 k
- o* C# t% A* j1 ~% t- P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-12 20:04 , Processed in 0.137996 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表