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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ G& `7 ?- n% ? Y- CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" U+ Q7 _- f6 Q$ xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, Z9 ]- P' p7 z+ Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 ` }) F$ m+ x- A% j6 z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) A2 r2 f3 _6 p) y$ {formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 V' u( A$ F: A, yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- A: K( Q3 K' l- U$ {+ k
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; ^' d. f- `# V3 omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, J. O4 Y. h* e* t, A1 \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 |) X: W0 l0 M& a7 U0 \precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 H. T! U- y1 v0 ^3 ?1 s! Rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 m$ p1 N! \3 w! v& A( b( U: ~' }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& H4 F z, u1 I7 Y, C% R2 p, ~- O
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" d: w3 S! m1 q0 O4 T7 ?. W1 F# Xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( x, `$ H! w. g30,000 new households will form in the province during
% s* E- E5 g/ X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. o6 g* f. e8 t/ Q, _; @# aEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% d! z2 ?3 S; l7 m$ h, [. uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 P% n0 \# n7 F( p" N5 Tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' ^+ Y" ~; Y* q( Q4 d6 y& Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 Q* q+ ~$ u# C/ r2 chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ x5 p" a; r( x, ]
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 t/ c# @ I' @' P1 d9 asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! t; V9 B1 v7 v; dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 F/ E( E" e% R6 N4 J) u; ]3 G
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ A3 p- `) \7 n4 M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# d6 Q. N2 s( Q( Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ Y* x* c+ c4 a4 Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 D1 ~1 Z; H" K5 {/ ~
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 C& P) a5 I0 a' q1 {. h9 X' \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" M) b1 s* p6 ~, M: l# |
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, y3 o2 v a* Z" R
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 t% S6 [) p3 z% a, s+ {* ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ z, s# {/ {- n T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! I6 I2 g, t1 G* k( a4 J V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled" X- K/ ?1 v2 E3 X J6 ^
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 a0 o2 ]8 _2 ^" q" P5 XThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! j/ ~) X* t: u4 K# o- n& Jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 r1 Z0 [/ w' E9 j5 d6 z4 c0 ^0 [3 }Although income growth was very strong, Albertan g& e( V& {4 G4 c9 X) y% Y1 _
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ [4 U4 u# j+ L& I* ~: q- n& A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. q6 ?( z2 v3 _
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 b* G6 H, f2 h0 b: g% C+ Hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. k) E% a5 p1 Eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* r2 x7 l* B! A3 ~The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& m$ u3 J8 q5 {resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 t: i/ q4 B0 o- Z4 D ]- dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 ~+ k: |, w% i" C3 ^5 U2 qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ _" p: O, I/ x9 k/ t; _" n" X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& P' \' ~, D9 k" `4 C: xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. H! K7 [& D) ?2 A2 ]4 t
leg down over 2009.; G, P2 l/ w# t& j& y3 M) ]# S, h4 k
! }, w1 g; ]9 D3 T0 I" U
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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