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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.1 b+ M" \: b, ^# T2 v5 l* E  w" j6 X

- `! z- f. H- F  WTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 7 _* {1 ~* b8 f6 d+ C- m
* ?1 u2 ?1 \# [5 e" @" N
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
. u: E- A$ _4 E6 q# }: u; \4 G* m6 r  u. B1 J3 S+ x! }
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ m( {+ ~9 J. S$ A% z

: g# ^6 T3 }1 jNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.   @2 D0 N6 V# k; z% o* Q( a; y& ~
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ m  K/ g6 N2 @
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) @% [6 Q/ C; R! H9 Q5 X; K
; @6 S) Z, [0 \" Z. o; _( n
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
& e6 ?- W% [; D& C% ]6 }. B+ \0 b 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。3 u% ?3 @# G/ m$ g

/ S: B- y, X0 a: D' O/ |[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
' e! J. i) z: ^, F" O! g跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. g, q6 q8 N1 K& f6 K  r% m" ]7 c很多人都回学校深造去了1 G' s& `. ]( R1 _% P
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
: z; t# m( r% }+ x, g! A$ N; N; \- I5 QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. |. }2 }5 Y+ o/ y0 yboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 ]- V( e- |& a. V% d' Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 \2 n* M  x4 Y! r" `+ Y5 e
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) X& u- C. \; F+ Z. }0 |) D* Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 }; Z1 M' Q5 V9 C# r- b' gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, \3 M, A0 Q# j% p5 T- ?) [
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: x9 S9 ^$ a/ @1 E% [( I! Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 z1 j, U- z5 X
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. J" Z- v9 q/ A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 O& h. ^$ H% j6 F$ ^- Q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 ~/ d+ Z9 X, n, E  k
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ j* q3 h& H2 D7 y! h. |year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 E1 i9 B9 S5 E  X- Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! F9 @7 m2 b" {
30,000 new households will form in the province during- s; I0 m; n7 w- N( b1 C" l; ~% [
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 N7 n& V/ \; z. L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- N4 B, d5 x- W, w) @3 o/ U4 Qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ Q; G7 R5 X0 S6 \$ H
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ c* Q5 W5 r# o* G. W* O2 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, X. R$ t9 C/ W) }: S
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! m9 d6 z4 j2 Z' xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" ~! G" K( {6 u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( H) S& a( J8 |% _3 F- r
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 i3 q3 [3 U& i, [- @/ [3 Mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# f$ Q7 v% H  U- X: h; g" U1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; A1 f  p) W. [( n
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 [" H! Z1 M0 t3 i, ~
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( k, K$ o4 D* E$ p1 Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ U3 W% @& ?" m0 t2 t
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' T/ k& l6 M8 W- A2 ~4 J
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% x  ~6 M5 a8 E4 t* B. u
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 x( |2 |) V+ i. Q1 L
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  M/ ^" a$ j. F8 ~
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( q) A6 k% X& O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# W7 [9 n; E# t% X$ Irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! ]3 O5 I- o6 Z( ]9 KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' d8 f. p2 H+ c) U
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; t* C4 V7 ^1 _Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& D% B/ Y3 x, q+ \) q3 T
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. {; l0 a  u' J/ crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 w6 v; A' b/ `# ], Q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: ], t, v7 D' U- N  o3 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' {# \  A* @+ f* Pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 n2 S. b! u6 @; D- j; P  H/ E+ x
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" R$ o( M4 ~4 p  W9 A( g4 i
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' X2 J8 ?' K0 ~5 L, |$ Z9 Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 L+ F: M, _" l
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- {  P: m6 w5 }9 y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ E$ k  ~& |% E2 I5 s& e3 v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 Z. Z9 i1 C; }/ k9 O( p" xleg down over 2009." u! [* B5 s5 {. s$ _& W& u7 O' X

. S2 ^/ J7 j# G$ ~4 `. j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& h1 S/ w+ t# d& W7 `; }# N% _4 Q: _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' m1 C/ C0 i1 b- a! k. d翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" c, p4 Y" V( U7 B! w7 |: l+ S' A7 ^
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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% Q) @1 Z6 `6 G- U7 ]$ Z) C: p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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