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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % F; v1 p. s' l( J9 m4 F& {0 k' H' q

2 z5 t: t2 k% d- w1 `1 cNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000./ d; G0 p2 K5 L4 B6 N
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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, C& h! Q& c% N. a7 u$ t2 iTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., z5 A* s7 h# O' a7 r' u1 ?

) u1 ]5 I! j$ ^; [Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 5 k. I! G) N6 K+ y. F2 C2 n/ p' O

! m2 m- Z2 _$ H4 p4 Jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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$ e! ~2 D* v9 fTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,3 C1 d/ Z. A4 ~( Y9 O

7 U( A! _; i+ T9 \3 `3 i# Y[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 {6 n' \& g: K8 O( j/ w 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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) e( g, Q, R5 B4 ^7 D[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
: w! g( h4 l9 a8 E跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. R; |4 J) e/ d很多人都回学校深造去了
8 ^& u; c0 U3 z5 d- P嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 `. D( V4 Q) l3 X) x
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its% S* }6 m7 g9 @# V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 v5 b* S  {2 p! y* E. ~4 u' ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 Q( d' Q3 n( b+ C& ?* o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; @% {4 Q# U. h. j& \# E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 r9 B$ B) `* }# Bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, Q0 O9 _* M9 Q9 v  c% m  k9 W
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' e* [- T) o, g: N1 W6 R( fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 d0 i7 ^1 J7 ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ Z  P1 H! [- S+ [7 K. i# D8 Oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" x" o! C/ S  {0 A5 c6 g
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% |, N# s* |9 i; `7 T: S& ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& P5 A2 I7 i2 B" x3 iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: l+ R3 v1 G# u' A' _+ z, R! V( A
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 ?8 ~- `8 n# n" m* t- l$ W
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, h* W9 v$ L+ |$ F" K3 N8 T2 l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 p9 A- ?( U8 d1 C5 n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( C# t: |' ~/ Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' `/ G! X  I! K, Q6 l( x' ~during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) Y+ L, P$ x& Y/ f. r
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 `+ ~; o" F3 E  Q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ n5 X. R6 h' |9 y. L$ x2 ?during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- B8 L6 _6 H, D$ J6 ]6 i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 a, q6 @* V: F/ B8 ?5 k( y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ N6 |# R; _  H' V
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! M  M1 P1 F0 J( L2 F0 K3 a1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% K# E1 w# ~- V5 Q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( A% n! B/ v$ l0 O" \: hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 s4 m& s# w: {' b; M4 |6 b2 @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 q1 l9 R% ]9 X& v2 l. f6 c
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# }; g/ ^- f' c/ k  ~; H/ ~7 ~! }
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& I" z) t! T" m/ A  t
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" L2 {+ r/ n) k  u9 j8 @3 o/ g* aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ p6 t) F* o* N  H$ K6 F
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 o; \7 v2 c* c8 T2 Bof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. a9 j6 E" M. v- d6 A% b2 h" Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
) T$ [# w4 s+ n# z" [The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 h% v/ W6 B" v) R  F
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* o1 ?! X& u$ U6 r+ z( L4 P
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! z3 I$ h/ N8 g; p( m( s& K
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# M" \# ?8 A. Q8 U. J5 ~4 k
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, [: x! u! @) s8 r; C, `( y" vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 s& {+ ^1 h* R; s1 t' ]0 e
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 v+ B; Q4 A% D& G7 O
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# B1 M3 {* v' @) FThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% _- D, q3 i+ j" H; V6 Aresale price in February is evidence that past prices% @. w: i7 T5 ^3 g% T
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! Q. T! P# K; r* ^  J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% f/ Q: J4 B. g. N" k. U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 x1 H# A4 i$ B2 B6 z% wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 n* T7 U% n5 J4 l) L; Cleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! g2 Y& r4 R& R$ c9 q' O$ @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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, B) R9 _- A: B- ~$ }3 u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 3 P7 H) h* T% Q1 {3 c1 ]
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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& p/ p( s' G% \0 j$ u: H% A8 rhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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1 w9 g  p/ {, U  Z. K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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