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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 I) H/ v# g, i& eWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 O; `0 i) d: C- v9 w7 @5 _4 m9 d
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 T8 ~5 z! u. g( L; G3 U+ t
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# P+ u1 J" B) _% ]
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, l) [" t+ \2 f! W+ }7 y4 O
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 w; \% S; y, R% p( X- [! Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* H% D8 }, O6 R5 Z0 }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and M& q; N7 b# r* l9 I
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ u1 }* F. J. C- L/ Vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# l4 u. n3 Z) f# vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
: X8 d6 }0 x+ f( kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 u# H! u' d8 R( }: M# w7 Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 E) w' o& u0 P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 Z) n" |3 f- H! g& e2 e1 y! Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around ^/ k+ b9 q+ A3 s
30,000 new households will form in the province during
- d! Y* A% ^. J& I4 R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. n0 y! d8 K% a/ A, z1 YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. |- J( O3 y% W* |/ F/ xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%9 x/ x/ l" m) z) ` f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# {) f# D7 c+ Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: f8 l5 q* P6 q$ Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, q% G$ @* Q. Q! q# u' `4 Q$ ~
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! `! G- l' I0 isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! ~. K/ j; `6 V3 f; o& k9 G3 }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" A& U+ e- y, l5 {. [; Z* N2 h# ?$ Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ t3 `" B' F6 T+ ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: m$ [# a, ]0 h( I$ e- I
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. X, A% q, E" d6 \, k. i+ O2 N0 jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 n9 b: r7 S7 s" C* n2 w" e; P
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, P/ R- A J1 }& S. t5 Kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ y+ Z/ u. |) K3 Z$ \5 Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' g% d# L, n" ?9 P( z5 V$ O& X9 R# X krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 k$ f6 j* P6 a1 ^, B4 a! Hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ U& t& y) i1 ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 Y# X2 `) q8 n; a5 u% t. A
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ D: D! @+ S' A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
) Z* o; z/ m6 R6 P6 gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( }! I9 d% h+ Mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) C) D* Y7 d+ c! s: c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan7 v9 O5 q9 g4 Z0 s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ H J0 R( M( `1 I) {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 W$ @" k( ~" h5 O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 m) ]8 d4 ?' v1 I' m; \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 w" E8 y, ~* I1 Non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; ~5 ]; P `$ p" s) ~! IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) f, r# \: L9 k/ H, uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
- i% ]: L" `6 k, ]exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- x2 d3 [1 U% K; phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
J) }1 u' F2 ]0 W( ^% d; k8 vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ ~3 t% n n; j3 n- J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 M4 |0 I: L9 Sleg down over 2009.
8 V0 [0 o L7 ?# ~# H" \1 e8 \0 c6 t/ Q9 j8 ^
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
