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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* L+ z& T, B3 S3 ?$ ]) J
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 7 r$ P. \+ T4 A. Z9 ~3 m

) N% @+ m( s2 C: \  jThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 t3 m  u; j3 E/ w8 }- c. w
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. w1 ~6 c5 V' ]: m: Y

' I* G1 V/ y6 g* Q: U& g* d* ~TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.8 p$ H8 t& ]9 O. D) f! _, Y

- j# T! _4 {' x; s) X"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 6 B4 \, n$ V0 L  X- S0 O
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, M- O: {+ G" o6 `' K3 y* R/ pMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , g' w4 p; _- C

+ ~/ [# J( R( S- Whttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,  T  Q0 f1 B4 |9 n
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% {& Q- R1 K+ m$ c( r2 N# T# I% G  m 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。' C! m7 W7 \5 y* `) w) d

: ^: D" l& R2 p  S[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ P5 k) G. ~9 s跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! C# R- d, W, d* N- |很多人都回学校深造去了
. W' Z- a3 R- |/ C' d: Q0 m嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
$ E" N  z2 S0 D4 sWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' f' ?: J- \" A5 ]* Aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- P" Y0 r7 B% D$ P( s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- _, O9 P0 g* Q0 p: f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ K$ t/ z( f& I3 T5 lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ Z* v" ?1 h/ F9 E" e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 |. F% H' Q1 P6 N7 Z$ H, @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; y: Z$ a/ R# ?( z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 H) j2 L0 W) I8 Z4 F% _& gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" v- B: N+ Y2 p( Q& Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ S# P( R; E  U% U* N/ Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( d$ @& _: V1 i  ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" t: W) Q$ g) Fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* {  S0 P+ D: L0 H) q$ phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- s7 S2 ^( R$ E30,000 new households will form in the province during
- V, g3 H8 L$ F" c% z% h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 |( F! H  _. d2 Y  ]9 [; ?1 I. n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 _8 t# ^9 `: l9 A5 l) ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 P# L4 Q, O& kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) p& j$ U1 @8 X( N: g* Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new6 s+ D7 e/ l" [8 X% @  `9 Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals  d/ K  u/ W8 c8 Z& ]% Y
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# Y* w' u" S7 X/ k8 m& A' Osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' R5 _( @. B# r: Y- uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 n( e/ e$ a0 L) u8 ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  n9 `* \) J; Q  \8 p1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ G& x8 o; z# Q' r; ]7 a8 p3 R7 Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ k9 W4 c( [4 L1 Bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ \) L* h; }) n/ H$ \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* D/ W& [& ?" u5 V$ H/ W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ F4 O  p: G% m. `/ Q6 Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' i: l  U1 B" L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& v3 M* B. [# B  ~9 D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, {. R. c% V  X- A0 l5 g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" ~* q. ]1 W2 S4 ^7 i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% @0 O) u$ @1 L. P8 m; j# Prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: x2 p( R  l- b9 u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ ]3 V+ M$ f- H) [$ C; H
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 e2 ]1 f) `' I( \. U, W; w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ S4 d+ h: t+ `6 K, E
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: Z/ c1 |8 A% g. z& `
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 G1 q% E9 O! L8 \" @prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ B1 U, Z. h: O1 |  U$ L. Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& x( |8 q  s$ j9 Ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 Z6 a5 J8 Z# iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 e4 X7 Y  `1 O$ t  v5 i
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' U+ S* v/ Z" i2 \4 gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 R7 x4 r  B/ q8 k6 |; jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* C' k& v5 J" b$ Y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# |) _+ I4 c' ?( h# S  RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" d4 m) B% v( q2 W+ [; [
leg down over 2009.
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( ?6 [) D7 n1 H1 G& t& c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- E! q. s) N1 W( }9 T1 NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
; `2 a9 _0 B: w" W翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& ]2 N" @; x, C: X
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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