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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' |$ H0 `4 C( w$ wWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 G6 v& D3 {5 M [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, Q+ t; ]* z- m, \+ _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 n2 \, Y. N( d/ d: K2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# p# W9 U; ]! m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( B4 A4 K Z) r: g# Q0 l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 L1 J6 i' `1 T5 `) U/ {
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: T8 ]& u8 b) H! u S1 _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous: |; h" G& O9 R" g) g
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed O# z' V" r8 n9 P* A G
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( Q$ r6 j7 h! G. U% h
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% ~2 v7 e8 X2 s( J8 sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 G8 f/ Z3 X( \; b! Z( D. Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 a4 U6 r+ Q) {4 N" L0 A
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# C$ T+ I! C1 C) b. ]7 v( ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 {% B# L- E H9 ?4 i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% h" I5 }9 E. w
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 D; e5 K, q- Y6 Chomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ }$ x+ W$ o- E" M/ V( v" a
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! S G S% R7 h8 k3 G
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# \; C5 E4 ?4 j! ] _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. m( H! R1 @: h6 {during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ V) c' S/ v% K, ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' D% |. C, h, W) l6 |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* r- |' [2 i5 g8 M+ p" H+ Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! m0 D' P( ?" i. C8 B% ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ _; l( M& C l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 d8 i, S( i' S( }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# s. _: N4 P/ }5 X/ r k8 j2 _) r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 @1 N* @9 q2 ?# v5 @4 x- N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 @: f4 p/ K% U5 n+ [; junsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 h5 |* S7 p/ k: _
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& O) H6 Z, d% X, l9 Y2 J5 E" Y
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# [* }7 G4 N3 }( G9 P7 qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ X, u i7 z1 E9 {; b! n
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 C0 C J2 D2 b7 y+ W$ e) F# U3 Zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( O) N8 x. V7 s& {The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' X- q9 ^9 E i6 y; ~. h
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- b: A$ E: J/ Y& W# G- n
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 @" f2 f# {/ B4 c3 z: e; u) r2 fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 @: Z; }% ]( |7 w7 f1 x Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ `( |2 V9 F; j6 t9 wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 b y. ?) q; Tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- v4 l! c" H/ V5 i- E: f8 [+ O, P3 i: a
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 x8 j# M Y1 iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 k- k$ ?2 C, F# K6 b! @: R3 qresale price in February is evidence that past prices* A+ R! o$ C6 }+ n1 O0 S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 V1 ^) d# c6 v) k+ S
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 \2 V P( q& v/ M
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ @, ^# e( Q. |2 ?% N- }3 v' Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% e2 }4 i* ~; C
leg down over 2009.) y2 N- L) a- O7 i
, ]# A9 _! M3 Y* Z$ |' W
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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