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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta ~5 i- O. y$ q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 A7 X/ F5 Y* ~8 `" n
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 s: s; q6 h# O7 s( A* T: I% dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: _/ o! O9 G: W6 Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: V' p4 K, M/ Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! y. M( @4 h# y, j' Q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( o" t7 L0 s' U3 ], v5 v. i% c! w
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 V" J1 ~7 a4 s6 Umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ v }( f+ p9 f9 Xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; |$ F' [ f" v! J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 r2 D! U5 H" y5 i) \$ l$ Pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( d$ ?+ u+ v+ ^* m3 l9 fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" \5 E! E) @% L$ [: C! \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# ^) ` y/ [$ k5 ?5 p, ~2 Q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 e; @5 l1 {+ @( R+ _, Q+ j1 t
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 p# W3 n% |4 s' U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ z/ @1 L. ?2 @5 L7 qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' I# Q! K% C9 q: s; E$ L
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 q; F* s2 Y# i1 bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ Q' p6 T! }6 J- [has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 t. N. h$ c' L+ lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 ]+ Q& ~, B! m( }* a: R2 B! m5 Mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 n/ b% K. a# |: _, C9 B$ Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( n* C7 |6 R7 y& _ K/ nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: j& _, a7 W- w! s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ b0 _1 P0 j( H: |9 a: U1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# m' F% m# D) q# Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, b; b( T0 i$ Q3 }/ ?/ u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. F6 ]# e+ b% v- u7 W1 r# itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 V$ t: R1 k! f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 H. n3 g/ C' s7 g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 S9 a8 ]$ Z2 v9 ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 _5 G/ G" ?* L9 T: C0 u9 sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ T6 }0 o/ v: _. P( U8 c+ h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" Z& H7 k# @- J7 z# [' P5 Nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) U" Y9 v$ s& [! ?3 d3 k4 r! yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 I& G$ k- h+ n0 G0 \* c* kThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- U- i# H0 ~6 J {
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
/ i4 {4 j/ q; G' ` V9 h8 fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 m" J: M) L/ ^/ R; G J3 e5 rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; Y6 R5 H' N; K4 I5 N( F1 y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& g( x+ }/ r. h8 {prices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 f5 t7 H& Z$ g" D
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
" l) \+ u" B( z' b( J5 _( x% t3 D( ~$ {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 @) r! b$ J u5 S- y/ [& _
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" n5 Z! V( Z- m; Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 s" \" U4 U. ?$ ^# O- w; j; p4 Zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 @0 I, ~2 z0 X+ K" Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) E# @- u/ i7 U# }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- H) a/ E% I+ Q/ Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) w) g1 v, S$ k/ _leg down over 2009.
E3 I; V: A% N! ]' ^: A4 H) ^# Z* t) G& l
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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