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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta6 l4 E% L7 {! A% H: \; C- d1 ^9 ]" @
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its F' f8 b: f! i# i! C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& t" _8 q' _1 [3 C; V5 U+ I2 G% Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 E' Y+ c8 O8 }% S
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- j% k9 u: B; [4 E1 U% rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ r: a) L1 a4 j% I; |$ \
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,0 G" K# `2 ?+ h9 @6 `' I/ J
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, C- `5 @, N9 ]& Z" ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 f" I/ X. F& ?/ T: G6 @# e
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& c$ i# Q2 E; }: H, g9 p8 R3 kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 z8 P* ^, p O7 Vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 U1 ~7 ]( Y. D1 V; r# c% [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; I4 c; ?$ d3 k- Oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 |! q1 |7 p9 J5 Q# }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: ]/ E3 v* z/ z) ^. X" S) O/ c
30,000 new households will form in the province during t c/ E. p9 o% k! D# r
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year." S, ^( Y. G8 S B3 ?3 [
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( S( ~. c- s7 @2 Yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& Q4 T/ P, S" C: s7 K* fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 v7 ?: ?9 v, ?5 g
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& ^' W$ X! x+ rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 O; L2 k2 J( A7 ^( `! Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- \; C; }8 A8 Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- ` ?/ X; c, S! X$ N/ U1 T& dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! d9 Y* I- k6 d- i8 Kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! K* g7 U+ X0 M) {( S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a b5 ^+ j V9 j7 v( W, M1 S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ A- w4 c3 @4 ~9 p, Ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ w5 v$ N1 s7 g8 R/ T, H9 L Y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ i; ^; N7 p4 J9 l/ x6 t
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. Y$ h4 m% m x% l1 w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) ^: h7 a& T9 h, r" A4 b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ o% k9 k, t/ i7 N: }2 s* ^9 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ ^5 g, \+ A. Z" O
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: X" S3 d+ ~# ]8 E6 ~* i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; Q5 P' c; [7 |9 J1 Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. ^! Z" ~4 n; \" C& z# `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s {9 z1 J0 k o' k h5 k
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." k) G# H. k# |* |$ L
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ s+ r: D1 W2 y" ^- I: M
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; g. h w& q3 B( W. y- X- G5 \9 }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ x/ a8 X g, u- B
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, e/ I, Q) {: x9 I* Q/ M- Z$ t% Xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: o$ n5 B. u' \5 C5 F' Y$ r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; h+ @) S, U: A) C+ R9 {The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ ] o; k; Y4 k8 ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 j3 W; @, t' Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) c% d8 D) v% Z, |# P. o( V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 K! D* r0 ]- A9 t) Xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 T4 R4 K# T- t' c4 fAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
d3 Y x# o2 \7 \# ileg down over 2009.8 }4 u$ `8 C) P0 e
$ L) M5 ~( x }% M' A2 i
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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