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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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( I! }/ ~% z2 N: q, CThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 5 {( h0 c5 c  Q
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ l  t9 U1 K3 A# y" S
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) R; `% Z! `0 f8 o4 J4 Z

: H7 ]1 o- z0 L9 p9 a"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. % W* z: j5 p4 W; I

8 g9 N. B, b  [$ M& e0 _- ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 o- ]' ]; Z( q7 P4 S

, C+ ?2 K! Y6 G! @# B9 X7 p8 V: Qhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 m7 b4 S& L+ {7 C
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, M& f: k! t3 r3 D 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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, {# i) p- G2 Y' e[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# K$ j: C% T. M跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

  {  D. b: d, C很多人都回学校深造去了4 j& o+ ?" X% Z" g3 }0 N/ F6 k4 A
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" |, Z1 r' a  s. _5 FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 F& ]0 J, l4 U4 U! @boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ _# o; \9 L5 z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# e* H7 `  a+ M/ v: }. _2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# B4 A) z% x) q% W! v
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" v4 A1 n; _- q0 B+ l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% l, @3 {( r; j. X/ y5 l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 _8 |4 e! h3 A4 `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! Y) U( R' }' z, S* Y8 J5 Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ ]7 ~! u) C8 {( p6 Q5 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" J0 s- {; t7 Q1 l' v! i" }0 w" T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" p1 F4 y1 T2 m# K, c
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 u. l: o: b& F4 H2 {0 }
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- p# \1 d( f8 k" ~* \
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ @5 `+ T: A: o30,000 new households will form in the province during# ^# K' ?  Z/ t7 I1 S+ T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( r9 P! {6 Z5 y6 T/ H
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
  S& _. Z( H2 Zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! v- ?5 h  V% w  `3 S9 U- B6 H; M; z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 n) \1 [) X  Xhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 `9 |: Z! V6 h4 E, j1 D  whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 ^0 d) I7 Z7 p6 C- [9 h# ~during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 w( m0 k- Q+ {sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- ~/ V6 u; y1 I# j! @
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) x' G1 |0 u+ Jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  v8 ^, Y5 `9 Y- t% z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& B6 [, |8 l+ R* j: E! C* esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 C9 x% c: H5 c' @buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ E8 l: q/ N9 l0 B3 j# o" J" ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 O" o  R0 l/ x( O! ^2 ?
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# B/ m5 {9 h' j8 v0 z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% `& B7 V8 h$ l8 e. trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 |4 S, h& g8 |' Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" v$ j3 _' B( {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; Q$ H% w5 W2 s/ Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' W6 \' j. A9 G' Zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: T+ s1 u; K4 r, g1 JThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ _5 |6 R5 _, d- V2 G3 X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 n# S. G6 p" `3 Y- Q3 B. N% e
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan7 D# j/ B. Z0 r8 S) m, G. s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 G+ v( h2 K. l9 Hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale  X) ?  @- U3 _* O0 |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. x( j- w; t- M1 S! ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  A0 b& X4 O+ s$ x6 |on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# X' w; B+ l! H  C9 f9 D
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
9 x9 ~7 \4 G5 H1 I" v! J& u: kresale price in February is evidence that past prices& _& D9 P# |; l9 d
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& Q+ u* G6 J3 \. j" v7 _* E3 ]
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& S1 L. c2 z$ @% }" G7 Z- F
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 U9 L' H* [% O/ ]( U- t! i0 L/ @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# ~. K& M4 K0 O  Q# `" Q6 s
leg down over 2009.
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) C2 [7 T7 C! j5 w) X7 q! Z4 J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 [  T. q! Q3 M4 K) C* `  iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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$ i, q- G  o4 E4 r. r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 _9 f4 X: a# F3 z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 j7 o6 Z  c- ]( F: R

  R6 Q  t6 Z3 p' \& ghttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& a# E. I6 |$ Y$ l; {

* U" L5 p. u7 T- b1 {3 ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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