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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" u6 K5 K: ^, d9 C s; q6 N
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. T% B) P0 G3 b0 B6 e2 Q4 r- L8 zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% Y' L0 ^# o! E( h* C# @8 _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# x: `5 K9 H# v2 k, {$ E
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 }1 \' B" w; l/ X7 U% H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! A# s' A5 D( Q- @: G& I6 d
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 E( u1 |! Z1 v5 |. Ythe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 J( d [( G# A9 B4 `! Emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous# @/ L: D/ r2 }' V
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ l7 ^8 q" o; y& d' k9 y# Oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; e! s! G" ?8 U' H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 z+ P6 m8 p- i: U9 ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
K. \0 I4 I/ f3 @6 C) Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 C4 q. [" ?% M. s& d) u
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- k; p' D1 }* N/ ?/ ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 g8 v0 U' T4 v5 Q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ {' I: h1 s+ X9 P4 LEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 L# m2 r2 A: W, C; Shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! t5 V/ ~* Y9 b# Kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 k5 A4 a( L2 b- O& P& Y# R6 \2 @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! {% c$ ~, b; A- f2 [4 X0 v2 s9 O8 }households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: z& L6 ]/ j# e! ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 ^5 S) ]; x4 p, ?- g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( l4 K. h8 v% H1 W8 t0 j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' U+ q. V _; |5 N+ |( fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 W* L A, A: r, f0 H
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! d6 F3 `) y/ y1 k
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( o6 W3 P3 w( f5 T% B# tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# \; e; k( Z* e9 P+ ?* k
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in ?: y" b. s( S! ?. c8 ?
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. e9 J# S O \/ h. `unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# D2 E! q" w8 Krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) v) i/ m; X2 v( g( Q" V6 B) Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 S2 D: K, V- B- ^! ?- Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ T R- g: X; K4 l
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 m8 O8 d- J2 F' u
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 n; H# N. Y- k, o) k' f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ B1 [ L! A5 C1 p; k. b/ x" j
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& `, Q7 U7 P. ~( }* \, C4 u# w' TAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
, M, \/ F2 e+ i6 jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( W6 [$ O& s( `! i6 a2 `# D5 [: Irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# T4 L! E3 t3 ?$ \. mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* {, ~% H) @! p' ~! L$ Z3 T* `7 ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* i1 [) b; R, X$ e) J% A- w) o: Z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." C, o) @; N% J% `1 P! y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ S. Z8 p1 ]6 `
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* b2 B' y' m! @( T% i1 O, H
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ q* [1 q& ~! j2 \) M- y1 j
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; Y0 `% A% c! B, c& X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) C( {3 H' O9 _! W
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%& d" ^+ R6 z- A$ `; ^% }2 W _% v3 ^
leg down over 2009.: R: g$ K/ v/ b! U2 p
% Y* ?( m8 N' W
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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