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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta( p! f2 z$ @3 t. h5 E0 F7 N; K
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 x! s$ Y9 l- @5 ]
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ Q& q' R3 G$ k, N2 k) {are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& L G$ I0 g7 w; T% u+ ^
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 n; m( f0 Z3 e+ O9 ~# ~5 H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 ?5 a0 m8 Y% z3 H. \8 u
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# S A4 s% ~; M# K6 i3 ~; J0 T3 rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- }% n, Y* }3 a5 j+ Q9 Gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& B, i7 h8 {" i4 V+ Z3 gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 n. B7 W% r5 s: R1 A) J( H( K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& t9 c: I( S; G5 R4 U; Dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* j1 ~0 `/ N7 Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 ~- D9 K2 Q5 V$ K/ ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: L. {1 D! b" d* B9 Y; I5 {2 N: \: Thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( n8 y' i; y4 ]. a) |30,000 new households will form in the province during. E2 e# q. R: s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- @2 c0 f) ]% t: j5 vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 G& i1 Z5 i2 F) C$ V0 Y* S7 Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, B! F# f" c, b$ N# C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! i/ O3 x' V; h7 x2 Bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 F- I* k" N" m" c
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 k) }- X; ^1 wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. }0 [4 x' P3 b3 ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, B& L/ k0 b# j: zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( X" F8 `# z6 s" T( T1 @) |excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 i+ X% f j; Y" d
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
b& B! v4 A1 R: X4 x! s# Usales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! l* e9 c% a& ^% {7 wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 U- N2 R7 |3 H |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
q& f9 _ A7 _, z) Q) B. i: Ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- R" l3 e" ^1 l3 ^% y/ @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" w @( P1 p0 erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" c5 o8 O8 S1 w+ L6 W3 G3 \: b
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" V% a) X* ?5 F' f
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 p( r. k0 j6 W& ^: I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. J3 w& D! u2 c: ~rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: w3 h2 {# |, S; L& [
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 c7 y1 D5 h7 z8 u' Qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% W W- z9 [( e( X) q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; T* l1 Q: C% n1 M; o. J& v: p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' }9 E/ p) ?* w/ m6 I( }5 ?relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. b5 Q7 P: `3 ?7 Vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 h0 ^6 y6 u; x i, p6 @8 U# Y$ [
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- h# o* s: o- i2 Eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 h) Z* E6 I' @" }The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 _# z# |# `7 ?. k
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 o# w8 Z' r' C4 X* ?$ Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, _8 i3 _4 Z" I, n* Fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. ]9 A; y! F: P! Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, ]3 n$ |& g! ?+ _9 O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 c; a# ^. s5 T, K9 V- p- Dleg down over 2009.* \9 p; H' Z5 P! R, Y/ \
9 F* o) S! _$ S/ I% P. \6 \* n3 ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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