ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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7 R4 ]5 W- K$ b2 U9 a% u+ `0 H8 \/ u6 lTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

9 \* i7 l3 @) a% AThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

' J2 h+ {  h9 g9 ~"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

- |/ O7 c5 W! z* \  yNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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% L" ?; d5 [% u5 p3 mMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.

# M3 A" }$ O- c$ w6 T7 ehttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

  d) Y0 n0 O7 y" U; B) ~+ j很多人都回学校深造去了
6 g) _+ y; K7 q$ [, |嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 p) Z) f3 R7 V5 E: b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% k( [# T# {* Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& X5 |) S  u) `0 Mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% E$ g) o- X% \8 \; Q  S7 h. w/ A( {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% X3 Z( a& h5 F5 i" \to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' v# G# i  g, f$ m  W( p+ w% _- P9 Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ T) e3 M& ~$ z# t4 u) w! n30,000 new households will form in the province during
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( `4 O  M7 @5 H+ i1 [$ M) A9 Q) wEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 J( @2 `# d1 n& t) m5 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 K# O+ o) A% W- u- {+ I$ c2 [1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' i& h5 u- O. K: L) D% K* r$ @+ Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 Y' r! c0 h5 Htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
! p4 F# O/ G6 ?/ c& Q8 vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 H/ Z. `" `$ v! A1 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* x. `& x# r- ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 F. u* M4 ^" l3 G: r- ]/ Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! e2 w/ x9 Z4 p: M) ?rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 D% @* ?; O) {" u2 _# Z" {: GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 c# Y6 H4 C( b) p0 thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( H  j+ m& B' T+ t% q- ]9 n& v7 p2 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# H  G1 s% k! [  x, e6 Athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 S; `) k1 A0 D) z) d. M3 ~& Wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ H! L0 c& e% n1 m3 `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* f# {4 k* F0 r9 sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 d  C- I# `& t! N  n8 z' Yleg down over 2009.

- H) Z6 M) f) C# F3 v3 w9 m" f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. F+ L& O$ w5 U& m' a& @翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing