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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ |0 @8 c7 |7 _8 y. p) a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; ]" a$ r( y' z6 ~1 Gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 r3 b# q* c# K: @/ z* ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 D( m ^3 }3 c0 q- f n1 Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 b& l5 _" l, g+ A( f
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; A, m. O' [3 e; r! m( x# Bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, K7 R" v. x) w' D
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" x$ L0 u1 z Smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 \8 p0 v h! R1 @! mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& q3 g, W) ~3 N, ]5 Q2 vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 l" R. U' S) E3 \' i$ \ N
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 t( O/ T- u6 k) j7 \" |, c+ j0 r( xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, f& K5 ~( [7 l% Z' Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: T2 j' _- W) f4 B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 @8 A3 ~( Q8 b1 ~" z; P8 d: P
30,000 new households will form in the province during. v9 y' n) ^; P6 ]
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% m% p5 ~/ b9 }- n, |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 r6 T2 d$ i2 b! X6 L& lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( R- z% Z' F3 p9 f' k+ \: W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. \$ A% o( P) m+ h, f4 E9 f; whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 c. g( S1 V, N) a Rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 i& I5 I4 P- d& n: q) Vduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ @, Q$ |6 K7 i% M4 Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 Z. I) I. p" e6 F. r. ?* F, Fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( e3 R; h8 o0 O! m" qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 M: l; S. X/ @1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- [% r* Q0 `4 ]. G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 j. D( B; i% H w* G" L+ A2 Dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 g6 J Q$ V& L% F- C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 u) V/ I9 ]+ E2 S9 ]: G+ b
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 E* l8 L W5 S& n- ~unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 R K4 Y; B2 B/ ^3 W
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" i! M3 ?! s$ W% g; }) l
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. B% b4 u' Y7 R: w/ o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) X3 d. i" K: L7 O B1 d* Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 a# i# L$ ?+ q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 D( Y: O; N8 R4 @5 gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
g- n$ h/ w5 k) i$ D( N$ I5 |+ jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 V1 V, X- `8 L! B( m' r5 M, k
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ d$ e8 z. n1 [! R( G! T5 O2 r2 _housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) B* \6 G. `1 K% s- y, w0 K1 prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 Z+ A4 f8 k- N3 n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# E$ c4 Y0 g2 u" |" f- Y& }) xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 d+ J3 d# c6 R* v& g6 @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, g5 S! M9 \* N7 W$ n) fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 l* F- ?" j1 Q* ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices2 I1 a# {; K# X8 I
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 _: @/ S& \+ u. E) @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
m3 n# X- B2 M7 n8 s0 w0 M# Ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: Y0 u( X. s) R/ v1 k3 v# `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; G v9 h* ~5 \
leg down over 2009.
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0 `; `; Q- @. @. x, d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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