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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.# L9 v( G" t' L3 \! W
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.   G5 F4 j) V4 J" M8 P8 Z# k

# y- ]) Q) h0 l# I8 K3 ~' m: E/ bThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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! J4 Q) s3 F/ F' b- V6 ^"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 j, `$ |: R) f* E
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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% ~: F3 \4 ?; ]2 P6 U# A. t, p* WTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 4 n1 U/ X) D; u" v$ A( J& S8 q
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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7 @- h2 Q0 u& I% |# Y0 QMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , w  C: d7 `5 j& b4 l
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

1 b% z7 I' T. E. D6 Y3 ?* g+ L$ S
+ E# K5 G3 j/ Y6 U3 F9 yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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; \% O6 p" B& b. ^+ n: A+ V6 t2 I[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. L# [. Z" X2 {' R+ m6 a, a% L
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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! [& W+ g& [5 @  ?" T" V[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 & i. [) f) w8 m3 F5 S& w* n: Y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

- n7 }5 l; Q: y& N/ O4 {6 g# B很多人都回学校深造去了* t& \2 J- J: p: w
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
2 W* F! v$ h: X3 r# ^Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 g3 Z# M" A, e% O: C' T+ }boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) a+ i7 y% u% M- d7 m) Q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 g" w% m8 w8 H7 `' M: `8 l
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) X  J$ v  `: [+ \1 G5 i0 ^( @
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! ^* p' m/ q, |1 j9 a* g2 Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 Y; X9 i1 M1 j7 Q/ C* s0 I. \the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 [3 G6 w2 Q6 x5 x# P9 |& r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 ?  q; v; E0 {6 hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed  z" m5 x7 W3 ?/ N. W5 j* i
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# J: r+ k# b7 Z# Pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 B1 s6 ]  ]" l: Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ B* d0 D- i. z) w2 t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: R$ e+ u8 A. i/ S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) T1 {" P7 D2 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 `- I- @9 H* V& f4 d" Z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 I3 R/ a$ _" k3 b' R5 D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' G: S" H- S- M0 ]4 \
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! e  @4 P' z1 N' a! @1 _$ P$ Mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, |8 Y; f! S# i6 z7 |- t2 ?has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, K# ^$ \5 C$ n& T& a% Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. t8 K! N4 ^, V& }
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' D9 h" x) ^; e+ }2 y( ^, k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" R2 p* u. A! m
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* Q- b* l6 Z' f& B- A$ y/ o' v9 V/ _
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 O+ O# `5 ?: D( _! N( s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& L3 c9 S2 i  Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 ^' c$ }6 A1 K; V' f
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# I3 T1 m8 g+ d; `0 ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; J7 n; F; [4 lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& j& v# l/ L* K7 Y* Q% I7 l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& @3 ?0 O" y& ]; x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 b- i8 R! P2 y9 l9 [, E8 J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 T0 U& \8 S, v4 U$ d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' Z7 @/ o4 N$ C/ X9 M0 M  W7 D
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ H/ ]1 {$ u* X6 T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: o/ W' I! n, }8 XThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 r, w6 ^, _8 B/ ^( ]
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; `2 T* {$ B# [/ O1 m6 yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; h& y3 A. s0 `; Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# N' U7 y5 e/ `0 D% Q& E8 T) R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ R# G5 J+ b& d; P  t4 _prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 L, w) D" G) G# g# ?
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 J+ l) D3 A9 p) ]% l* [on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' H7 t, g5 C8 r+ E. dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) K3 D" [7 R  l( N. I; Z# q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices: T8 L2 `, a8 O' g  n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) Q3 A, b6 v: n0 c7 L
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’  E; K  K+ g! v& m( p; x6 k
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 B* d( n" {: M+ B# _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ M8 |- i8 n$ ~0 t0 u
leg down over 2009.$ G0 A- k, Z3 X3 g+ |) N- h6 ?; [

2 b5 _6 ]% [  z& H3 p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 Y* R5 P% ~  q5 N+ h/ D+ i' R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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4 i" N% Y8 X! Y; i8 U% I* k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 8 R% ~$ f" a3 ^1 {5 }" w: H
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 L  J+ N' Q1 W; o9 |& a

$ K0 t7 G0 {. n) Nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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