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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
; Q# v; a" [: QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ E, g# ?1 T" o- `' z; q6 Y) Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& S" w5 q, [& ~3 Q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. }& `& {5 @# b; v9 u4 W9 \
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 T4 m4 R" N9 @. P7 r, hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& m) _; v: b6 H! |" O
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ E! t1 _* u& G4 K, g: |6 Y6 `: i9 w% Ithe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 R8 J) ^ I F8 qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" z- V* d3 g8 r( m% M. bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; X. X; A& n+ }precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 q7 j h( @+ ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ m e% v# {% E: c
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, G1 ]8 z1 L) m7 `year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! m. i9 L w) p( l2 Whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: Y' [$ W* _4 p1 w. |: C3 V3 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during( T1 g( i E7 M$ ^# \/ y. d2 l8 w' @
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) E" {% t( M3 O% ~- w3 M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 @% i& }4 h" `. S- O& R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" O: n6 Y/ w% `$ g! f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 }& W# L8 m+ {4 c
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new6 }. H" h+ {+ d& B5 I1 S! R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; D: u! z S Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# j4 {2 X6 C" o9 m3 h+ d9 asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 Y5 |% c9 S* e9 ]; w8 B( b# n5 ?
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is( L( y$ v$ ` O
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 j; m! U. ~/ R! n+ L% i( y2 t1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" `; U3 S' T; L m7 _# r' ?5 }sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- ^. `: `0 T3 P+ a% D
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 r( W1 Q1 x* M: _6 a* d
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# Z8 n# ]! J$ X# S
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ w' Y: o0 M8 B) x* C
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 E: m) [* X9 ^% Y3 K8 Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, v( f1 p0 S: G6 I8 a' P- A
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ c( R* F. j2 O2 _. @ B* @& n
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories @! ^' M9 M$ T: `' v
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
" [2 J) D8 H+ s& P" N3 t+ O, Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 V; Q% o' M' k4 D6 F2 hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& B- |; u! l" @/ s2 uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 |7 @) ?8 B* T. N! T3 qAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan) T" |2 s! v0 j6 r# `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& E: }, s! q9 ^1 Y7 M- Urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) @8 Q$ g, _5 t: I# M0 w) Iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) a4 h8 b/ X. i( C9 L/ B
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& H, W, u9 }5 q6 ^/ T p% O( B) o3 eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. h9 j, x8 V0 \, P) v
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' ~' [ b2 C" v6 hresale price in February is evidence that past prices* [6 D6 U& U) `1 J5 @8 |
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& L' M+ b! w5 P& H/ {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 o: w% v1 Y3 A$ M/ ?6 u- _& y Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( \# V3 H- f2 z" h& n8 ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: i2 z7 s l* w' M) W0 V5 ?leg down over 2009.
( d) c; E# @; H3 X/ A+ f! O$ a+ h
( ]5 \' F4 S5 D; J3 y: J1 ~) P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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