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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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9 D$ b" c" W: R/ z% n1 o2 sThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 4 _. A+ d% U, Y7 u
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. / R- G2 X) e5 ?; ?9 s7 E% ^
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 r, r3 N) D- T8 v1 v( z# V( C

0 r+ h+ \8 v- d7 v, T; `$ u8 u+ c7 v"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 8 Q- ^# N( K2 G& K* q

0 H' m! n6 E6 e& D+ |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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. y  ?( y7 C$ u4 z' D' s( ^http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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$ G/ S5 P5 v, V9 T7 ?" s[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( g) \. C* [$ f1 ^2 \: G; T
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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* p& L2 l; Q4 O[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. w" m4 ?) u4 c0 Y0 P+ R跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了# x' m  S/ W  \8 p; Y5 X+ f/ Q, }) C
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 F: b9 N6 X( V: F6 \: M+ U. S- G; a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; r2 k( s- K$ t4 a' xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 y, Y! Y9 N' {; p& k1 l& F
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 l# u+ F/ p0 s/ S, c* T6 w! ~2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 C/ E. J! ]& J$ B3 e+ i5 Fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) A+ r+ a; @, \
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 H* u- r$ ~4 p- ]( Y0 F) A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 |  [3 S1 o6 f1 p
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 ^1 I9 B7 L$ J1 Q$ S* epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 X$ R- @4 Y. ^precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; ?+ k1 Y( Z$ U. G7 @0 U7 |" t
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 A$ f1 n8 _2 r0 iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  l6 {% N" b5 |( w3 N" ]& N- _3 |% N
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( `# F$ K) e3 _. U9 t9 Q/ lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& a; Y# _; J7 o$ F
30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ f) C! x- Z: h; Q3 `- B6 b3 h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# D' J8 @& \4 i/ C: E; xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: }6 @3 d2 ~5 z6 s9 Z  D: ]5 w7 k! d, s0 nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( N: J+ T) _: R/ [' E' hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) S) }: g1 o5 s( h& _has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 i3 K/ Q# f6 ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ k9 S7 A$ f) k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 q8 {3 M8 P  u* i! m& d0 Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* E/ m6 J$ G4 |( Aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% O5 y* ]/ m; a
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' @, B4 X1 \) O: K0 p) y) Q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, u3 ~$ y# H- V/ N( H# ~6 N- G0 T( d
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 y; v8 t% ?9 ]' S8 W) I
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ P7 S$ L2 V- f# @' [; Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( [' a) o" G; U, Z+ D8 runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 r" |2 \. U- _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, T! B0 C; N5 J+ D6 [& F
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the  A9 U( E1 b! U% s* j+ m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) ~5 ]! W0 f% w& W( D# V) R0 W
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
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+ Q* f: x! @0 [9 v: L" A$ hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ L/ u% u0 w( j# O3 {- ?+ b1 @0 o
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! X: Q. n5 Q, q8 q. d9 U
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 R. M  g. q* Y! z; [6 k
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ L- B  ~, ^9 J, Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, V, s. N& J% M9 _0 g
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ z% j' `  @! a4 `& B. s
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 k4 z3 t2 Y1 q  I7 D+ {) q7 ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% L, `3 @4 e' u' N: Won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 b! O9 D) u! Z" h+ X/ c1 S9 ?; I1 QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 [2 y& w( @2 b1 Q8 @! Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices& B& s) E7 J1 j
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' y% k6 z* y& S: S& I3 N' Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ J  N- u  Y( g! P# ^" X4 p  |5 udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! x3 T2 N% @" x' B5 mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" r5 G- ]' w+ Nleg down over 2009.( @7 d( V, w& l! Y4 I/ d
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 c! U6 J% `6 \- `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. & Q$ l+ X: f1 z& g0 }# u
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 h1 z- m0 f0 T) t' X
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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