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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( W  V7 w" }% ?& e; z
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! y/ ]7 D0 @. d% `
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ( G) a! `# _1 U9 z# ?7 @6 K
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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2 J2 Y; ?+ I6 h( K8 Q8 e0 }0 ENow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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- Q3 J1 x; ~" u) S9 h+ MTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ i, A4 ~3 b+ N; D' ~

, |# w9 f1 p# @9 y' C! }& q"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. % q6 }) a  k- w: P* O: A
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , b5 Y% T  m! N% B8 p1 r$ G
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,+ Z! a) [8 b6 F8 l

& W. ]4 j% ~* _  A[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。8 [8 F# E# E2 q: D2 L& V/ L7 C
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. U9 K% Q1 p( H/ M+ p1 \

, }' q+ v* U3 p8 S; I0 v  g4 i[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 5 @: v$ r/ e* H  z/ |) E
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
6 Q- m( s: e$ K0 s, h. Z# u2 U嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 G+ a8 }- |1 b) Q4 H3 h; L. F, Y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 C- F) n; ?% q/ w# v1 d) x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  W9 Y4 ?+ S% M- W& |0 l
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% |3 X3 ~' U% C8 A* D. N8 Y5 r6 W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 l2 ~6 Q& l* Z8 o5 v' ]. |- W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 [2 I% S' Z# V* g5 ^9 Kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& `; \. D, r( [- n- D! R8 |% a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 P8 D  I/ l5 ^% k" Z, g- jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% Z7 n1 Y& n% r6 \4 h' O% N" Z/ zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% d. Y! o0 |8 o; S" a) j7 M# mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ l- l# ^' J/ d/ ^+ X- m% q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( k' E5 @% W+ h1 R' j2 Pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ r6 _, c7 }0 u) r! S$ Dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; k) s" W: k0 khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. o( h% z# B1 C' ~% F3 ?4 Q) L% y30,000 new households will form in the province during
: x+ A* f% G) x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* a- }3 T0 R9 B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ k) F( E8 k* M! Z2 xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 u4 v7 ?5 N! w+ N7 ?  F; b
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. o- u9 c+ _9 q" M/ Ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' m$ y) e+ _7 `5 a% Zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) \, E) u! F2 g- i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' |8 W4 J3 l! _0 C  `3 Q3 m! a; q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& r- O5 }- \8 P  j; N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% Q, X) m( |9 o& m& k3 d2 X0 b( Kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  x- u, g2 h+ D
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, q; M3 J& b2 ]0 D' B  lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' r3 M) }  P; Q# X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- C8 {6 \/ ~; j- O$ F/ ?& }
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 {3 @" s0 e0 |. z: b+ sunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 O' |2 Q& R1 M$ K3 e0 l) N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 P6 ]4 b. c/ O; R$ o% U# Precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ r3 i7 f  f4 m# j/ U7 t7 v3 S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; R0 l1 a% e  ~0 y0 xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- _3 E5 \  }; T, ?3 `9 F
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ J4 ]; R$ S; }: d2 e  A' {! L
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 x7 [( I8 w+ ]' H. h
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 _+ ^* _) I; ^% f+ Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) c6 f0 w$ C" Y2 `8 j! OAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 O. O7 v" ]. Lhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 I2 O' {7 O! B; }
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 m' t, n, h: r! V, tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even; R0 X* {# F: _$ |& G
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- F3 M' Z- d, K+ Z3 Y' R% ?on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( d6 }' m; z0 U" r# @9 ]  E+ u+ hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& B5 W) X' `0 q: {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices- r- m- _  f7 Y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ f+ t3 j9 Z* K# m8 U6 O$ J" }6 Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( Q3 D8 ^4 [/ j. qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ L/ L0 T( \) h' u9 w+ d: ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: q7 o9 u, J" V( A" i9 |  [leg down over 2009.8 E/ B$ O' w3 a& ~5 e
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) g" d& r$ i3 e, V( M) CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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" a' k! B+ E; O( t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 Y: k& j, E4 P# C+ j1 a
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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