ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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$ y" ?' S  b# B  Z2 X/ XTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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- B- y' A& l  U4 @2 Y- @( }: lThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

4 n7 |3 F4 {0 N  WNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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0 H# s8 f2 x9 _" m"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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: P8 `+ ?1 G! a% q9 x/ dMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% H# A& C. ]. b7 u 再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

! x" j2 c8 _! v- `[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
3 n. D5 a4 \6 r- @跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
7 _. |8 ^+ B, C9 |7 _4 N9 @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 T2 a9 g2 f5 c6 x, ?are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ Q& }. i6 u4 r2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 l9 [+ N3 f  y/ \, J! l" B) O  H, dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 s! v9 M7 i5 J( _5 d4 Q, qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 H+ l9 q2 o" }# k( _precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# t$ {) B) T" L/ X- f' E8 v  U! eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ L) n  `2 h- y! y# F0 B! ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 D/ j$ o% B+ k# ]1 nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
. [7 t7 I# K+ @) `( f; F2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* A  s, r# F0 B% j8 h* F6 ^4 @Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 j7 X7 |4 _9 W1 ?# J+ Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
. |$ m  m) g' m6 Ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; E+ O/ l: H# j5 H5 v: Dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' n' C- l( S; `6 E! l* {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 [5 p" r2 L9 u& w4 E, gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( @$ i! Y& a: t) b9 c& Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 p) {" p/ I7 w3 h: m- w# F% yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# }" f" \. ]7 f9 R% E' Z; Grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; c6 w$ ?( [! J' @( r! j* ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, p$ ]. b: `( [* P* j, ~' j6 imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 ?4 e  H* \: |# u" E" sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ v. t0 V7 v! v' v# l' trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 N3 N" M0 p3 g9 LAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
) e( X) W$ p- U- C- N) l3 Ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 ]! v; a  N9 p" d" Arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 l% ?1 I; D2 Z2 Z/ Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) }5 A" X& m0 d: gresale price in February is evidence that past prices
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 q# |$ U: H+ p& x( J$ R( Fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

6 d$ S* m: m: Z9 o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

8 T; L6 ^- v4 R; Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing