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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) \2 Q& r5 i8 |$ c
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 X) f1 D7 X2 Y Q) X j$ {boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 K4 A. c0 T) P: f8 }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ E) q* w6 n" m. J2 l5 O0 e
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% k6 t7 t* T/ {) b/ D8 g" f% B9 @formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 q( e" Y0 s; \- H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 F! U, J$ O! N7 f6 f1 o, Vthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( v. s7 V( T# s! {; [, P/ kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" B/ ~7 i( p1 Y9 Vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ m K& b) e8 C. D! Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 ?' `9 `/ j4 U* Q3 x/ d. D4 G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 U: y- w2 l C0 S, |& f. B" c
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" A- u$ u1 C8 a. a* s
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ l a4 A5 Y0 p. q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 e# X7 {- I" {# z2 Y
30,000 new households will form in the province during( b& M1 N! V1 Q5 q+ x; k
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: J# u. k$ w$ W# m
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( ^) ~; E; j1 T: z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 z/ C, ^7 O( _6 w/ b; |2 a, R0 r
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% ? B! S9 n* U- mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 E: _ {/ f; z8 o$ @
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 x4 b( S( a. e) zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 Q# |3 W% ?/ [& Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# L5 z8 B+ n% e! }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 ?( w; ?$ S$ n7 U& X U
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ R% I# H5 h! U0 s- ]. q& ]. @: i
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
c3 n, e. }: K2 ?1 l- Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ S- V0 b. r4 Y# p4 D
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 _9 P$ x7 g' H z- E+ e6 xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 R# B1 X) }, G o5 f+ d: M% V/ Z R bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: D# L! `3 P8 x! |$ V
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# |+ }5 W. w# c. i
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the P# q0 o- ?, n* D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, {5 `* o {' D3 C7 w) L: j5 t1 Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- I& M9 r! G- j. mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 k& P9 p! W: m# R
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 i; J) |$ E# I' H) \2 { F' w. U6 |
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 I9 c5 N8 ? ?! K9 o$ v# B
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ N, Q3 |3 l4 RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
) X8 [% a- P, w# U( ~7 k( thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 k4 d: m8 s# R, |* v9 [# |+ Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' i" ?$ b+ H- x' Y: n+ ?7 [, Z; M! J3 E( ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 D) \. t8 m% m* T0 e, z- m2 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ ]$ A- v& i* w* H
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& h. [8 a- G' z' ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ d6 B2 V+ b) L9 d' u4 J& F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 a& R2 A6 B0 yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* j3 h' z' @0 M/ o3 o" n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- D" Q; C" Y/ I9 ]9 xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. b" ]- q2 `, b; |8 x# M
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( W5 @' B% P# p" J0 q; Qleg down over 2009.
1 s5 W, p% l; u6 q/ o0 t2 ]
4 N8 {! R% @8 \5 u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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