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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta9 ~7 M' m! z6 @, t* u. A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 g0 W" \4 l: c9 w2 ]
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( A. l* K. j4 O+ A4 r# O: w# n7 Q* Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- t% e9 }" v. G- r6 Q4 I* ?* y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" J% y# f+ h. E' H* {% |3 d6 l$ l
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, `- {2 M" \0 t% u) I: X0 _3 H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; _8 Z8 R+ W9 z4 ~( Zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( o" f0 l4 f4 {& x8 G' v4 E2 mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* g p% r. j% J( H7 Ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 F4 P9 I% N- L& J+ v; p, h% W! Yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 X& T3 x* H: M0 p
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" P- K7 n3 l; x1 d& K' `* H: H+ ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& Z$ q, |( M- t# @
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 E' w' L& v2 r/ Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ ]% e, r) S! ^4 l; ^6 @5 _+ } ^8 D30,000 new households will form in the province during' b2 l7 i$ x+ Y' ]2 R, K( @/ P! K* K
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' z5 q% A" N' _* o' K( y# TEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# f% C/ e6 p2 p+ ?7 c; w: T) A9 Qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
h' h2 }; y( b' R; d6 O, T& mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( u; ^2 D9 } `. @, n3 dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 a. V% D7 c% k7 n( a+ Z5 W
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 w- m" x" L0 p; I" V4 l( f
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; Y$ b$ ]3 i! r. W
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. _ Q* M' q" d6 Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% Z% E" u# D4 M7 vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( J/ Y7 t8 f, F/ [ y8 ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* \2 L) a6 T2 t5 q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 x5 `8 e7 m- I1 f
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 g7 `3 X: P1 ]) C: O7 e Utwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; O w" a9 x s$ R5 e2 Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 Q" u, T' _+ q4 C1 Xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 a! I; ` b6 l$ crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! a% W; x/ f2 H+ ~! _# f! X
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& O* e+ M. r6 \2 t; s& T, kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 d5 `+ y! P# n& p% Yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 r! v; S8 X1 b9 |rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% _% Q% Z$ L& l& U- Y! _
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; m0 j! {0 d2 A% Y% s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 b6 Z0 K; {: `. fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan4 {' O/ m2 S( X/ D J, ^* x7 \
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) x1 X# p& _$ M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 D# t+ k& G- a0 y4 i" a" l: z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ c/ O$ F& \4 c7 X$ _* f
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 z+ ] K9 Q: ?; b, C- Y% E- h% F0 `
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; I# h/ }) d: N j' F
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" X6 H3 n3 B; _, D0 d
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( O/ r$ p0 ?- k. U# z- Q9 s9 texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! v' u3 p% o9 |. U) g# Lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 X" i: w* f* R9 n* ~ I: w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 Q5 f; q; H/ U: d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. V1 {1 k h: P4 K+ {) q
leg down over 2009.7 l- o" v% D; `2 t; d0 p
2 d- f9 }9 B0 ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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