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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 Y3 z, [5 l7 h, I- U; HWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ O/ k0 H2 H; f; z1 z$ uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! b2 t; ?8 k2 Q2 V: E( u/ j9 pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 O9 U7 P( [# |( j7 l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( S+ a2 f B# j& Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- [% a! w9 `) u- `from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% o( s1 v6 Z4 N) a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( D B' V7 w8 s% k: U2 Z3 bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 B. f; `* p( u7 X I9 _% ?1 a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 ]0 S7 u. O$ j2 b" ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" I( E1 W( G' {. H# R3 o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& d- ]+ }6 f8 u
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 t" _% n2 V- f7 `
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ E2 k9 P& {0 q' G: \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# t/ V. l2 a/ ^+ k8 ?4 t
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 {8 l+ y: k' q9 ]( {2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 b6 f) s( h4 l) J% n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 [0 e* n2 @8 u" shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( M8 H2 V7 @9 ~) J! ]* |0 ]during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( H$ V- J' x; d, {3 Dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ _" ?; i2 @$ C( w- xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, ^$ {7 J5 e/ O% d1 y+ X0 J
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* w: t" y0 t& Q' `( Bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& l$ D9 y2 N) lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! m' A: F4 ?1 x( C6 m
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. O9 A& k2 z+ c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a }$ V H4 _" P" {+ P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 U. Q% d# i7 {; E
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 g% R- z! L4 k: z4 O; mtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: X8 q2 p1 J4 Punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, Z- ~3 \ w' J" a- ?
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) b, T) A! z5 j0 z9 K) x2 \( }# wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 M8 `% o" W; ?4 _& ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. i2 `) v! b) y& E2 e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 d8 g$ V3 p7 Q7 A' ]" @7 h
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled) \. a% _. v" E2 M# Q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 i$ n+ j9 q( R; W& y+ q; jThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 V H) _$ c) \0 w+ M" {8 Uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 p# x4 |4 z/ t7 \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 F h1 b% k+ g7 D0 f. Mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ A. `) O/ e2 A6 y# trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) g4 a, n1 r& @+ K1 R" W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# a7 Z% ]/ z' I8 D) O! G
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 Y y# [$ y, r. n. z. W/ `
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 r- l, i6 j4 O- P1 m
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 B x: g+ v# ^0 g. hresale price in February is evidence that past prices# f' F9 i7 r' o3 O% }9 v4 E2 [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 T) G. H, \: ?
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ K; H* z0 {) r6 O1 M- Ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories, z7 {6 i8 [& |+ ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ ` N6 ~; G9 u! S0 f, J
leg down over 2009.
# J0 H/ A) s6 a a( x. T4 C8 g5 u' b3 y9 W* p
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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