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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 w& V9 Z+ Y% C% w+ P6 z% m- K& b  X

- S1 q9 V$ Z' }0 b, i# T" i( gTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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( Q2 Z, P2 o+ P0 SThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 Z% d/ @; G2 }' C0 `
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% ]9 \; a. [  f; M: y+ T9 x! V
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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5 T% k6 T8 P, i! l"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
! ]7 ?" I/ s. z5 r% d; f, B& S; E7 P4 P" ]7 @3 {$ {
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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; a$ [3 O% Z' D" U  x( G3 YMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 @# ?# j/ o; _4 _

( ^, a! J( v' i; }$ lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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0 P1 q6 R( Y; J8 FTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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' A1 @- B& o' q! \[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。  |2 Y3 N0 n" v0 {
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, c0 E- _; f) [4 o8 T5 t' [

$ T. Y: K' V7 }. V/ C0 i7 Y- u[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + ~  L* y- V6 I6 z
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

4 t& d0 |8 G" V3 r很多人都回学校深造去了
% j6 V1 a3 y! R0 v9 @+ h$ r1 }嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta  ?( I+ A4 ?/ `7 o' J+ c' S
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 w" H( a1 o5 G: N/ X6 S& }; U
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 W  k  u5 ^& T  R0 O* Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) U0 p4 G( C3 g: n; A- x2 K2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 R0 l, {  s: Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 u" z" B. ~" d7 j$ B, J
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! C: O5 {5 r) ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* E! U+ b; U1 b& E% cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ W/ M  @0 U0 k/ @. z) bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 ]! I. l) Z! |' vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( s' K. W8 [! f' P9 ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 n( B( s# }4 Z. _( Iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( K7 R$ J  i6 L. }0 t& f3 @* v
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," D% |( ^* g9 C- Q9 G$ A1 b
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& ]+ J2 H  B( Q; l. Y8 @# y, g
30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ n: o* n5 ^$ p0 L) y* G2 |2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ `- l4 g1 X8 u: |
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ m9 R8 H- p5 Q/ Y; }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& P4 ?2 ^3 K6 N4 K8 n& c1 ~during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( ~! L# _3 B( q9 p- s8 k% ]4 jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 q% S; i- ~" M% T! X* v0 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 \; i; W- @6 B2 }) T, ?/ j. Y' v
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 x# ^, f1 [% A& r8 f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 w6 l4 m- F- a) W+ d, H- e7 _clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! \, L) `8 D" ~! y  u) y4 L' [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, p' v7 {0 z9 q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 `: m2 T1 L+ e+ \- H/ k& d
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ B; m- A; c/ L7 a9 \: h
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ t; d' M1 G8 m9 @% r0 v6 ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) Z) E5 ?2 e4 n# W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ T- X, Q8 c& K) j
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' @' v' J/ D; c$ \  @  A3 o* ]* ]" q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  A1 A6 S  \1 L1 Tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( o% g- C% l$ g* V! j  h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ g* F; a; a& H7 {! Cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( b) E" S, O0 w8 T$ Q/ j3 l. K8 x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: X, n! L+ Q# f# DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 g, E! r' ~3 j. K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ \. \9 z: u4 r# c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ I: F$ {# G( Q6 T; i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, t! _! L& i+ k/ G% X7 q4 [7 \" x# trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 A" ~4 K  Q# n/ {% V3 h' Y; M- q/ Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. _, S& U# s* t+ D* Tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 n6 K8 n4 H" G1 D5 \4 e# }on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 `$ _7 A' X# V! a! S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& I2 F3 c: g$ h3 J0 @
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
- M- H8 O7 g+ Qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 U$ e' ^  v) q3 c. p0 v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; B' V. G4 A+ U- e/ ?, @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 x; R' T( x9 A! q0 G2 p+ N/ ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* b; a7 r' n8 x4 a4 P
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* ^, t/ ~" @+ a! q* d( @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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& Q  R7 \* }, d2 t* N: M& V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( ?2 u. ^, X3 F: }/ z( I( E0 K0 V翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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. i& K' v. Z3 K! n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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