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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* [4 p8 u- l" H! n" C0 {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' W9 \- ~( ^( d; M
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" [' c! l9 T( {$ p/ N) p+ G7 Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ o" |3 T" i4 z/ g: m6 R6 ^
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 b; d# n5 _/ B: u- dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, Z( }* o W8 |% T* F) E7 D; Afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& v* w ^( [- s# R- n% d4 w0 W- s ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 v/ X" m; ^: p- L) X1 t
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' e D: _4 t$ ^) j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 G; R5 V; W9 f4 y/ ?+ Lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 X: X4 r% j8 N( ~# V# gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 U0 B) P( G0 D# S$ h! e8 Vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. m' J5 R& M) Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms, ?. {5 j: O$ d, Y% f/ ?
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) B% l3 _4 S9 T5 K0 h+ B30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 p3 j Z8 _9 Z: e1 H V/ h4 K+ G2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" v E# z% N) H0 FEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) M9 C) m. N9 [* l4 ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ C1 X" y5 R, W9 t1 e
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ @: \/ C" u) L( A0 k6 x ? Nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ v- y4 `2 Q k( G% e: r8 m5 M
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: \9 [1 W8 l! e% H$ }3 B7 i& f
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" U& j) h9 A4 e, [ U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& O# g' b0 g6 _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) K8 M7 s9 W; d) ?
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& a5 Z6 @( X7 M9 n+ a1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ l. F. f8 M' a$ A* p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 u( d- D. K0 x4 _6 }buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in" _5 z2 r6 p( b" d
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ a4 S- Z+ {/ U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" V' m" P% I; @2 y* {
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. X' M9 P2 }" p H9 urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 W6 v& i( a8 ]3 L: aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; p/ W& z2 Y. f7 x2 P* ?& S, I3 {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 ?8 V# u: |, A$ m! M W3 _( g
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 h7 o) z; d1 m% zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' k+ ^0 o Q$ N+ Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 ^2 X0 X) Q8 Y* y5 Z5 I! Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 ^, a% ~) s3 X- ?) F
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 O) S) W7 w) P* U B6 p7 H) v C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 R3 R- J; \( ^5 Y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 ` ?5 k0 ~: \: ?% R' j. Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even Q; ^4 J% Z8 j& S! k# ?& T. H
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) A8 {# C' r3 B( L$ I: j# [) don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 U5 K/ o" `0 w. j
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average p+ y6 Q, z5 a" n9 E8 U* o
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
y1 k$ ^) h7 j6 [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. C0 }1 ?! I( Z3 [homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% ?& ]$ D* E2 W- Y9 D( L' M
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ M. t/ Y9 ]+ H; L" z* iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( Y# ]; e& l8 R% r4 i$ f
leg down over 2009.
1 C6 B# E L7 Z9 s$ D6 {0 V. u9 @% L4 w3 w. M2 W8 O, Q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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