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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 I/ b, b, ?/ r& |

- {: o  X  |, T0 aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 ~) l* w" z9 R- A* N
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , |. l5 w% M1 s- i5 ^2 R

( f: @% Y5 q4 ^8 \0 f. y" aNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% P+ n# Q" q. C# @
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. " n" p0 E: F* k5 S  }

  k! {' \8 g% e9 M6 ]3 ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 4 v9 T6 g% q1 k8 W2 t: h* _, g

8 H) @9 O# y% {8 fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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" [- O+ h& Q: V9 c0 K0 A  eTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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% o% }1 Q% }+ q/ b, _# _8 v* c[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。3 k7 r" h- N6 y2 a3 d
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。% P% o1 x+ b) y3 |! o  x( O' K
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 F9 K/ b' i1 |# `* A: a6 `3 c' D" _跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
* P3 x; n+ c" M, o; g嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
2 N) Q' O, c! ~% O8 F5 P& sWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' |  M- ^; ]& ]8 H' h' p2 q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) l0 E/ j5 U' t! X8 q+ Q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. D0 z6 }5 t" L3 N4 ]2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( |) O1 b$ Q5 B5 a' p
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 \; Y/ C+ r9 {: B
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 @/ w. D; B% N- P5 a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( \% `; X! k/ C% K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& R) l1 [1 v! x% o. tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& L0 t7 p7 R3 j- Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' g6 h$ p% {2 }1 Y" b  Nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 F+ _3 I  X& Z4 R9 j$ T' w# x
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, l, s" J7 j+ Q  m- i) Y( ]$ L) y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- ]' p6 z, y) F' b4 Y+ Ahomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' g3 s$ q( j9 `; ]! p% w1 D30,000 new households will form in the province during
' @# N  O6 b7 e: t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) G4 v9 F" v: g7 `) nEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; R( [" t; y1 j! u! t4 |
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 e4 e; ?+ ^, j4 `; D4 H, O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ R4 m6 R. {  Vhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 R# }* Q. [; O" q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 P' t% b8 s8 C  S5 L
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 L6 C7 r0 J" u/ |7 K2 i7 n
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* D8 ^4 L5 C- P, ^+ @1 N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 H0 f* z% D; t( L4 m% y  ]* s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 P8 k/ i- N/ e: i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 j$ E7 S+ i5 ~% ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ T+ w, a! \6 I1 i% Q
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 v( ~. R1 V, s+ b6 y- atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% Y/ q" H; o+ qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 H# m  D0 y# x& N% U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" ]6 W5 o' T; a- |' ?8 o" I1 x. f+ Trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' B. {. Q6 h8 ?, p2 D. k  o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ V; m. x5 O$ F. W. c) c5 _) Y' dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 t4 y& v! B! J- C8 m4 p/ M& ?of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% C* h9 b; ?& s6 @# y+ grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! c3 m& B( A% r9 Y: u) F
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 \: q5 E/ C! }, @# I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 g8 E, A# H7 d9 |' H( ~# a4 Y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan) @  e# C, o9 e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: \0 ]+ f) L' f3 J8 j8 W  A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 ]* j$ H9 Q: kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- A( k. j7 W0 }$ V& y4 p" |' j+ R5 |
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' y" y- }3 [/ x4 aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# @& ]2 |! c0 a/ n9 ~2 a' i* Q7 q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 \& t' Y2 i# f0 p9 A: ?
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
/ p( M/ b1 o- G0 c3 Aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 {* D# [; h/ [7 c5 B' o% ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 J( l# |7 N. j0 Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  p2 C$ m$ g& q% K; ~- ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( V* Z0 o) P# xleg down over 2009.
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+ H' E# |3 y+ J% o4 Y  ^  t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 O5 h& m9 c5 ^# N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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+ ]& I2 |7 ^5 }3 C0 X$ }  V$ u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' P8 ?) m/ ^: H
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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  y0 F& _5 t) F' ahttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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$ K; m6 W( x+ \5 J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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