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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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9 C9 B& @8 M. J, Z2 h4 VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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7 ]/ W7 u' O- s8 e"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) z3 a2 n. N) p2 V- L& C5 }

; y  M& A0 @5 I" t; |( DNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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; m; A. s3 Z& v/ G4 P  h( wTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.% t5 _6 B" B6 c8 Y2 f, ]* v2 |

3 Q1 q0 E8 D: h( C1 a( D* ~"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% P& H. [2 e7 nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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3 s& S3 L3 A% Q' TTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,4 M* Q7 v; o" D! B! K% g
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。) G* F+ N% B7 F$ f3 i$ t6 {
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。3 v+ @. b6 E! t% F# a
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- a/ K( b7 s1 G' ^; n# l. f+ g( O跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了) j/ l4 L- D' [: l
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 _/ P* ^+ Z( D+ `: |9 ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 D: }7 b1 U, z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 ~& m, i- }# E# |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ j1 G- w6 f2 w/ M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! [6 _% S* ?+ F3 O) S; f0 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( j) p# Y, ~2 _- x* Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 L+ Y, O) i7 L" q. ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 t% ?" s* c8 f- A, u. ~may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! g" l( l/ x8 j8 s1 S
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, t, C) A2 y+ z# Y9 j0 vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 B. Y) C7 q  _' z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; A1 y1 m0 m  y  \  [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& M# ?" Y: \  d5 M: G2 R' f0 Cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ ?( t  h+ {$ J' Z  J' \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! i* m2 h, N! {+ {' Q30,000 new households will form in the province during2 W! _# P3 b' Z2 S
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- T; f) A8 m: d( d8 R6 Z6 QEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' F! P) }" O( ^; a8 s  `/ fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! W1 `0 ?6 _  [+ u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" r# X# l- `5 t. G/ q/ M3 j& hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 g' x0 d; s3 J4 e0 B# G4 ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% g4 X' x5 n" s! H: s( L5 R  K6 |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  P; `, \4 d3 T; T9 Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ \& v4 P2 L7 h8 _9 z' ?
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ p2 ^! X8 z/ n( V; X* ?$ E+ Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; ~8 Q8 U. ]+ a1 d$ i7 }; c; v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ {+ X0 j( Q$ a! y6 c" l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ }; B/ V& Y2 Dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  I5 Y% M3 K$ U+ g: u
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 E& w' {! L9 P  ?" J$ W6 s) ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: V: W% L  c7 Z* ], T* c
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- }- c( i# B9 A) t' T1 ]
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' j; `, B0 v5 D% q- i6 o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 X% g4 t" Z# b
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) ^) Y- F3 w2 A: I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& U/ P* p; X+ P& M7 Qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& [) t2 o( a' B( e$ a# M4 f9 T+ w
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 a$ T4 l' R* v2 L" O# @0 D$ rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 S1 D2 q7 _0 ?" J3 `) kAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( \* N- K3 p) q6 E
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ j7 z; |8 ]0 r' ~$ g  f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 e- @. L" q( M3 r# }0 Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# e$ B  R: ?) Z, \# M: @7 e0 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* Y2 `6 d, ]( X7 B) S' t8 @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! w8 {5 W: J" T  ]# |1 w/ A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 Q/ ~" T7 |- ?4 o! Q* E6 a9 G' c  Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 z# h- J0 G! J4 Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. C' E. N0 _/ T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! x; ?$ q/ u- g0 v2 T9 Adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 g# S; h/ }% q/ c5 N7 B0 T9 CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! c4 k: Z, w: Y8 J6 u* p- l) c
leg down over 2009.
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7 p- ?. ]. I1 `9 l/ v' k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& z$ ?0 a" d# ]* E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
) q# ^# w2 f& k8 J2 ~" ~翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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9 N1 R5 b1 j3 n9 c6 t/ T2 C$ u4 ]http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. H: u. z% _+ l
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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