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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.; j2 u1 ?1 @0 e( M4 Z
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! L0 J9 U/ I2 z: e
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 9 J4 T9 [$ F2 C4 O8 ]- F
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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5 _; K% {  p% j5 G9 E" P: LNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.1 E* W; K2 Q4 Z

! Q0 S; v+ [& v9 n" {9 O) vTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ S1 `" X* L- g, g/ b
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 r4 n; M5 T; B5 h5 z& e
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: L3 O* n7 j, n. e# ]

: ]- V5 A& @5 B6 n+ {; \Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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- d7 `1 O% h8 V; ~" [: B, chttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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' J* a! v. B+ I' E. f' k* QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
! R( o9 O$ m2 U) J6 O" [ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( a9 J5 b9 ]+ ~. P, q  j- a1 j
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
, P; |! S9 z7 B# Z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了- \* M7 }1 {; z4 T, T
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- J+ N  t6 T0 K" o3 q2 ]Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 s$ f1 z( o# w/ J. O
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" l: i4 j( W+ r/ K, P; Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 L' b8 }. z9 t+ L
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 T* e/ g- s$ |* r  a8 o  j$ J9 j
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- S. v+ R; p4 q1 {% nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 u. F1 U5 |1 p5 t8 y0 k
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 Z9 g& F8 @1 y# t/ U/ o6 u! d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. o6 C" m+ |$ M6 v8 F: B2 T
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) }9 Z, s- T0 y4 R, E
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 w. I$ o! L" p) g, t+ O3 A) i" Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 L) p$ H- o2 o( |, R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, I( G9 m" i8 @; u/ c4 e) Cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( h  G% q: h/ W7 U4 k" S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  @2 R  J: X/ K! A1 i" `
30,000 new households will form in the province during9 [. O$ H6 g# n' d% o6 Q2 Q: E( u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 m" N1 A+ U3 o9 i- G6 H' s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 ?5 r: Y% b6 S( n0 s, _homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- }1 ~/ F6 R6 ~( [' ^during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* d! f+ c. F' v. [) k2 k
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 ?; f& F8 N* K# fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 t+ P, r1 [6 O* C- _- b# u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( j7 \* D$ E# L4 Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  _+ {- x& c9 e. q& H
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- z9 N. g2 M: Y6 c& K3 j4 R5 gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, v1 |+ c. L9 |% ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. Q1 _# ?8 z* J. t0 p. Rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 K% F" C# v3 N  I7 m! W4 o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; l. J1 m: `" N1 x3 o* o& Z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% X2 P) |3 x6 d2 R- w5 j3 E( t
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& }0 V  S* h# V4 u) J1 n
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" P1 f" p/ L- [6 W/ c4 Mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' [% @+ E# ^' K! Xresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' }; q4 E: S' v& l! D" d. v9 E
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. m4 X) t  b1 R) j3 {
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 q# ]  o1 n8 L7 n1 |% a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 U  D* p; T' E% M
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; E7 w1 \4 o2 {4 E7 Z2 eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ M6 \7 R7 Z$ s; ^9 k5 m) c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan5 D4 Y$ `7 T) o! P9 V, J! C7 \
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% B3 K$ r+ Q: m. u, s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ e! y) \* o) }- s: s. @% n% F
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 c! _) z' F' y/ V! {2 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 f# M+ Y: p9 L9 N/ ]) z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# h9 O7 t' F/ Y' K- ]. f( Z, S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 v. f4 R# r  i# v1 L* vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
; ?, R# j$ d! r8 [2 ?exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: _# p' i5 w: |0 ]3 U2 p  whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ a0 C3 G. }  h  h( E  Jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! p# O5 z! j, AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& N2 m. m0 @. N+ W4 z% gleg down over 2009.6 W( r+ ?* \9 S/ e5 J; F! F1 T$ n

. S8 ^0 f! {1 F4 y" ?# C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 l. ~2 G. z! x6 k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
* e. C* c1 A4 D' L1 v- K! c$ a, B翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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0 T- \% Y& }* yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments) n- W( k8 H0 l  S6 `; a
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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