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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.$ I! T& J; e6 O5 p2 Y- h

) C8 h! V  H9 G: k' v4 U( FTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. # Y! g- g  _, g5 J0 |2 n
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) ?, h% V- d  B2 K) R
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 m6 k* P/ z$ j4 A$ @
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 3 l7 V, w& a+ n4 d

# x0 v- v; e: ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% E) E7 n: v% t  I9 O% u
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,9 r% ^: E7 f; S* S$ t; H/ i/ j% {

6 d' [" a7 z% S/ t. h& a[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% U7 N$ J8 `; @3 ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* p+ l% D1 g, ]$ J9 w( S+ P8 a跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
7 y4 J* t0 P( `- [$ x嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 J1 u" e' R+ R9 }9 L  f. TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; g/ g) I6 S8 D) y$ U. L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* |" e9 L4 J* ?9 z6 }$ |: j, d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 q9 {6 k. Q/ T2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 G' n# D% v1 V* F; B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% {1 @  c# Z) J& c7 ?& wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 G% ?* l* [: b/ j7 M
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. T# }+ w6 Q2 m6 f0 K' o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ s5 M0 w1 X, B4 @pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. P: U% t0 H' D6 j9 _/ N0 z! hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ x' }" S9 H# Y/ k3 P/ E" k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! p+ Y# y; p, J! |: R, Rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, K& b6 }1 a& v+ C; Cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ c: r( ~4 X: H7 W7 _- _
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
: x& o$ X; W9 g/ m30,000 new households will form in the province during, I. h* D7 D$ z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 H8 W* A( R. |5 g, g: ]
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ Z; W% e2 N8 x6 N
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, ?) W1 Z: b3 r9 |" `% tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 p  e; N8 T. O! ~7 p7 Shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; L' y8 P# ?- ]5 ]9 s/ T( Uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 @% d6 S: ]$ F. f. u( ~% `9 Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 `3 a3 y; w: H; b& a+ d) V
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 i! z  G7 d. J' w7 g* L; qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# \# M* o  `. ?& z; l) lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 N' i1 z3 A4 d; Z5 ^" s' q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 O6 A9 f! G/ X0 W. X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 c" H2 I5 N- Hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 i% {$ ]9 A5 w4 s3 D6 m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 p: \2 j) \4 g. N3 Y8 F( t5 Lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ N: w6 T$ e; a5 V3 v$ |/ Z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& W7 K5 ~' I: S
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# L1 Q+ Y2 [# _) G. ?resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# h& ]' c4 k7 X- S- `! M- B
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 l: i+ e7 s6 |' r( C: K
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ B- K, r, y  _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: m) g9 J4 B4 G8 c* bThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- ?1 t0 q: ^' O8 |boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 W8 {9 Z( ]9 r( [6 G' k! s( O
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ `3 v1 V& ^7 O: H& T: |5 ]7 h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. T+ k; K3 s# ~# X5 Jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 Y) q$ H% d$ cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) H4 [+ _  d- [  ~) j" {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 {1 [3 n) M: j; w" x. N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 u2 q! r" Q. M6 rThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: J6 o/ ?9 `7 t0 [
resale price in February is evidence that past prices( g/ Z% l! _. k5 @) I( w# f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, V  ]) a4 Q! r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 n) g7 O+ Y- Q# @2 e- E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ x2 d; A8 E" X7 l5 GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ f* B4 N' T) j4 @4 D
leg down over 2009." v- H/ ^( z1 ?

  D+ |; `" l! k. z9 ^8 ~9 Y, w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ t4 o, v2 b6 o/ R; y# W& g5 U) j4 C
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 i6 O7 I$ i" b- f' ^, @! [- w% Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 5 ?2 y$ \' [( b9 X  ?+ S; h. k
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子: m  a% e6 `9 Q  i: _9 M( ]% Z, L+ m
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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