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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
! j% M0 M* s$ A0 `4 h' {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 c/ h+ ~: f1 e& R: z' x% W8 Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) m% ?# G& k5 B" o) d2 `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% R9 @( [5 l% d, L2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 N2 q0 w2 R; s% o- ]+ L* `% [( x8 Q' q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 n; ~9 E) ]$ h V4 L1 J0 wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 n5 V4 f' @. p1 [
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' {* O Q3 K, O' _) E' _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous# K- E1 ]: j+ |. r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 B5 x2 e$ b) H$ y4 r- G
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: y% q4 Q8 c- e" l2 Y3 U2 S+ Q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 o: |! Y9 t s) c. |7 o1 v$ |6 P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ c( D8 k, t$ C8 dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: [) F: y! P+ N' khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ o+ Y/ k1 H' C# ^* R# \30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ O9 @+ |4 c' Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 n4 \- `- K5 Y9 X, |
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* t l9 G5 c: a& {% U: A) n2 Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ x1 X: [) ^8 Z C9 L5 Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ { T% j3 E$ S* M. t# n8 k0 _has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! a- o8 ]3 P G7 Thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 n/ X5 ?+ t6 \
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 L* E; j$ o! P- rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 R: p; P7 z$ j9 G1 R* ]9 |6 W
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* ?' y: Q0 L# p3 C( T: p kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. R J4 S6 U# ?) s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! n1 T+ D+ T+ o' k- h6 g
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 O& ~* N5 G5 r o1 n) U% E1 m8 Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 }4 z2 S4 I1 r4 f+ vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
' n( ~* t4 s& k; D/ punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 ]0 k8 H, X2 C, f' [
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 {! ~' A$ U% L- [recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: Z y: k5 i1 r
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 b/ {" ?9 B. F4 q& ~, K3 _9 K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 o0 A' Q3 U6 M" i$ x: C- |of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( c! ? [; G/ C5 G) L6 @ U7 krapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' z" D8 F( a% rThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ l- N9 T6 f( a
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# j2 G) s$ a# X2 cAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 w/ [2 Q+ |! g9 P0 |% C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 `' `( O+ V8 Q J9 K% g8 Y f# Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 _, A. ~* L/ f+ S: Yprices substantially eroded affordability and, even! L; y' }; N3 y2 q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 B, z2 p1 {( s# o; e% C4 h
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" X1 a0 n- b+ @! UThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. s+ f L- e8 Q) H3 v; Bresale price in February is evidence that past prices: Y% \3 c. H: a ~+ f6 P3 E
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' i, x7 r5 N% { x f6 Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- M* W$ y( Z. b3 d, y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 x2 z) w4 j" x! ~6 F; g5 XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, y( c0 x/ x5 _7 j) n/ ?leg down over 2009.$ c4 a. H# a- ?: y& h1 a2 e, Z
7 ]! x+ ]! ^: b7 ^, M1 E5 \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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