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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 ?' l' u2 E. c7 P2 n7 H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* O; ]; L! H" R' Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; i( e/ k" n7 @& h6 ~% \are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ j4 e g" N$ Q6 v E7 {2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( S$ w1 I& G7 Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; P7 c, B3 g L, O1 wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% J7 J, ]2 u0 m
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 e/ k8 j+ L$ o: bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# ?4 H' V' _- S- vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" R5 _" B+ y4 R! e, d' u7 q9 Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* V8 u- q" Y+ O) ] Eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 a. H: c6 `0 Z8 t0 z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 q% m4 g* ?" W2 c7 hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) N- B" c0 s9 b% e( S! phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ o: M% F- I E- ?) y
30,000 new households will form in the province during9 g- Q9 @- d; L: _5 V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 q7 O/ D0 R/ f8 i2 H0 c0 o
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# C' o; I! p+ a" f0 H; B
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 L5 h! I) o f5 R. R) \
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) q# e& K0 F, s% K; e* }- Uhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 U* @% ?& h# O# uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! @1 N% j G _5 \
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, S7 |" X& m" S. ]+ jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! L; D7 ~5 v* i9 U1 P, v5 Y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; [, u! y$ S5 y8 c- u
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 E$ J0 l/ N' B( O) l1 \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 N+ I& D4 l* M1 Lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 l3 G) a3 w$ z1 j; O- {/ Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* d, K2 D2 h* H2 r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 @ X2 d( H' R' |& A, O! H& W* eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: t( [4 P& V4 ]) \6 _3 Sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" m l R* @0 i+ G# yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# `) ^! D6 {% Sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 W2 p F7 F% E+ H z5 ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 c5 e" M& S- Cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 {. {- A( h2 o* |# M! f( p
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! t0 Y' F; \! K4 M8 x' EThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 N5 U) @9 M: U, U7 c+ m3 W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ @1 F W* i7 p' C' j) q* oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( M3 A+ o/ Z3 t' ?, V w
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 o+ W" o) I- e0 b, Q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 o" `3 m- W3 ?- e) _* p1 h
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% j8 E) D. ]2 O8 _' d; h7 ^" Qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: C# {# ]+ }! @3 D6 g P# B$ lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- L* M" f5 F# a7 mThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 c% v4 W6 j2 i( U$ c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& Q! C1 a# q G: g) jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. Y% M( Q$ s A, F
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 q, i# g5 T$ z' c1 U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 \8 h3 u6 k& [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, P8 W" f2 w: F6 W! d9 ^, R6 g1 m8 Xleg down over 2009. l5 E6 N; ]( a5 d% t
* z2 i( [. W9 U+ `7 e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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