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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
) ]1 a4 C" s0 ~0 {5 rWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 b$ c" P/ o: g$ a) j: a5 `1 Gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* ?% G& d4 W C, f7 V V1 c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ s- s/ A9 ~1 W+ Z: v; U2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. f" a3 D2 K6 B5 s' }
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* d% }; k' B* Gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, B& }- l( }* U4 ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 {) i* y' e2 f# n5 |! Y9 P7 dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous; n) r+ A6 K& o, v* u
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 _% x M5 ]0 u% Dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- O. ?& L6 J1 |0 f9 V! f% dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) e H1 F& [* x7 l* V) g. @
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 `) Y% }( ?. ?5 L. G7 x# i7 y- y9 Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 n$ z+ i k) Y# _- g5 vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
g9 B/ d4 I4 P7 T! b0 K; f30,000 new households will form in the province during P/ f# C- A9 y# J+ t9 g c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.' V# r' J$ u8 A4 p2 i! C
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 V$ {3 x- C* t' b' m% ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
d4 X2 _1 Z( H2 Xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta" C+ d1 u2 p4 ?2 ]7 H
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# S! E5 V$ Z; |households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 Y3 k* L7 N, U$ D1 ^! k1 S0 X$ z" g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: ]* V! Y0 q0 @$ B
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; q# k+ x9 ~3 v& w) R+ Pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 F: `1 n: N5 ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) P, n+ m/ t5 F: u5 o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ n- }8 [5 s& x9 P; n }. |4 Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 P3 `3 h V/ W1 i, u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 _ E" @* H' ~
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 I% S4 ^1 b/ S% L5 x' k: H: s
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 P- F2 ? _; X) Z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* [5 `9 V- w" Z; xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- i+ u5 _& u. i3 K
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& M7 }1 {7 `( f4 G# Y! v; f
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- g* t4 N4 C5 x& }of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 J# C$ \1 x5 @# a6 Q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ Z8 B, I4 w3 G& _% S; j. p6 ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ b- ^8 j2 P& [' S6 m5 X" S( r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 j3 ^! M' E$ G. bAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ i V3 n1 [: J+ ]housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 ~$ d, }& d k) L+ _6 l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 V3 E. P) z6 A' _1 n3 c! wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
) y4 w) G% m1 f mthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 q2 h/ S+ h8 L4 K8 i/ E- \
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 s5 g+ A$ O! e. B Q. C. E! M
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ f! U# R4 E7 I; H _4 R ]6 o2 d
resale price in February is evidence that past prices6 r# b% {$ z: O8 B: ] Y! _- F/ y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 U4 D6 s1 ?" I' g
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& d' Q9 ]# G @% q0 Y# M, T' ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 M$ j) u$ G3 N' N5 _( tAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 K2 H L; `0 t- @leg down over 2009.
3 q5 Y7 [; q# s+ { [! ^/ ^, e6 `; ^
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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