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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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5 m6 N% ]+ s" D7 a: M. GTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. - W2 S0 u+ J$ G9 r) J

5 m" M2 H3 Y$ G' k2 x5 PThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 n6 j; g7 u) }( Q, w3 |
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 x0 d# |! z6 V6 D* i9 O

" T4 V- x7 [8 j; ~; ^4 KNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." B. h  J" C) Y4 l" j6 h. E1 p
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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2 S, u. ~( T1 o6 b1 v: u"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- O' K) ?% e4 c  E1 jMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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* c9 |2 o2 b. m0 eTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 O# x; G! _( |/ ^9 g9 _* V" A% d 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。0 W  S3 I* G3 g0 ]5 H6 V
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" a2 w7 l: E* R, n5 d跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

7 I$ F/ q) L% q7 D- ^/ ^很多人都回学校深造去了" ?( q* ?' [7 T+ B  B
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 y6 C) W4 U$ |0 B4 G+ L
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 E8 U  K" `* r. }boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 |8 K  u" a1 P0 M( r9 j% {7 ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, g6 v, C. q( X8 G$ r$ x. ]* B
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 q* z1 U" z& O7 M& `
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, D( V7 c& ?6 a5 G2 A) M2 pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; y1 Z% c) E/ R# E, _. J0 V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 z7 \  V' q. n7 P
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous5 G! o+ i) S* ^) O  s4 U0 }
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& ~6 U2 x1 L' I9 ?. Hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
  ]( q; ~6 }5 \/ O1 tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 [6 G6 J8 D) p+ n, [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- b* U" S) |  O' S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: Y0 J! |( B3 y& ?4 @homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* z' _9 R* X2 L  O4 j
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 t% q" ~$ B" m- z" P% Z" L
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  F, \& X/ d& y2 f. GEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; H7 `& s" U) Yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& R" d9 W4 z& L- Z- t0 J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# ^# X: S, B6 L: k  U
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 L  [3 A' r. i% G+ {
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: ?. _  h& {/ i# U2 q5 |; Mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 D$ @3 \; ~7 g# R8 ~
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 }. r6 o( H- _! y' e1 C# Tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ g5 v4 V: R  d0 _
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- q+ `$ S* W- E2 S- }6 L1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! U5 z8 }* B  y# \8 @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  i+ l, |5 [& |buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 H8 c2 K) Y% @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; D* d1 f" ~& q. }3 c! Aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) s6 l/ i8 N: Z- K# Z5 P# O* r6 P$ i
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% H0 B" L& g( n( m+ `
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 w1 z$ v5 [2 [) s( @" K2 rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( R; I2 I  L  l3 W6 P7 C! fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* H/ ~- H: l% X& lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) `. j0 v+ t- q& k. E0 N$ U: g
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 c; Q: v$ [5 ]& j" l" e2 [( e3 RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ @8 E+ V9 S; {9 x
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 y6 z' Z/ m1 DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 N" g( W3 x- b1 h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" V) q9 l" ~& V# {& E! Erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& V: r# W2 [9 A! \% _+ G
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 e2 t% ?# O4 F5 F+ N; D* ^
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( [# O# |. [$ H
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ O5 Y, r; U4 R! b* w
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ w  ~$ O  e; D% n0 E) A8 @resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& a8 N, y5 S% e; l! p6 Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; t# R% e: \' p$ {6 ^  p9 khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 w. p) }1 r4 d; ]# ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 T- I2 J* o1 \
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. O/ b! Q, {% o- T) ~
leg down over 2009.
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2 S3 z* V* A( l2 s: x! ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ g6 D' m! l. O9 u5 W+ r% `! }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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* O; S- Y# a3 i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ Z  k  M, r. i4 B; ]2 m3 m& N翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& I  U$ z0 \, S* [, D3 I  l" D& j1 T

! h; g" \0 X* S0 @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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