 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 s1 u1 I' F/ z' I$ C5 ?2 |9 U
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ n& z. d! {% e3 `boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 `9 D& q9 i0 G1 ~! n) R7 G5 k# r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, u( z2 F: z2 {% j; o4 m2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& b8 }3 y% W; T5 F- ], K& ` Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 E0 N; b/ W! D8 f( Y) v* |3 u4 afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
, |" B1 M7 q/ R9 z4 Y% j/ }the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: x1 C/ ~( _4 M# [. Bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 \" ^2 ]) n( G4 d4 P4 ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ _8 O$ K8 |* Z B( t0 p
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- F* F! j" G6 Jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. j5 \- e" o# q# n8 B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; S- f3 f; _% E: b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- D0 p& V8 J I" j- W) uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; D) I& T9 c, n6 s/ L& b0 V
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ w, e7 f3 Z) Q% r2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 d, [2 K p6 k! ~% l' V" EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 H X8 x: `% J* O% F% b
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% f8 K1 c- f6 Mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
4 S& n2 q0 U9 e& C& \% o8 shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 b+ W3 m6 g' g b0 v! vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- r/ j4 t1 r' v
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging j) S! n2 d1 M! D, s
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 F+ M. d5 @) V R$ X v8 z6 yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ t) |" c& z& Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of F! {- n* ]5 |+ s: k% F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' Z0 Y/ d4 l0 psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* H: G1 n) {/ \2 y1 ^' n
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: j% R" E% A! T& p$ L) C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 v9 f4 l/ K2 K" c: A. Nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ t# s4 I$ a$ G7 z3 M9 h( l+ [
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* k+ D' i. [ y R, Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 K) e. Q; |+ [
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ R, a. O2 U$ X5 d/ w3 N
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" J" `9 J: F) T: A4 o& [. i/ ~
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 S. L! n* Y$ b: O8 ]7 ^3 a% k
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. L2 F/ [# L1 |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 _, y0 z; @9 a2 x2 I0 q6 _% L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) G& U4 U+ O# p- @% e; K: i1 dAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan& Q; _. m, g8 r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( V* K m8 Y s, O, Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: N2 ~9 t. b; }, o% j( W% J1 H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 _+ {( ?$ L% k: Y0 G$ E' ~
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ E+ ^, @ b9 n. U2 O
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" g( Q/ c- j4 h- A! {" VThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 c* K" }& X/ G! ^9 s4 Tresale price in February is evidence that past prices
! I+ i1 d+ r# l- lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- e6 s5 e% V4 A: O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- ~, ^' d3 H" q' c" l) q: }1 U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 i& o2 T2 d' k: B. g( f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" ^ n" o2 a& p; M# H" [
leg down over 2009.$ n1 ~+ y d8 k9 q
! D2 M2 {2 m" n: E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|