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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! d  n0 [% _5 q! _, b* p6 y

4 m5 b, e3 ]% E2 {/ Z  iThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % f! {. _: q9 M* h+ W# o- g8 S

/ H' J. b7 P7 }9 G+ _2 W"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. z* k* d) i. @, U8 }0 S
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # d+ V9 @( @+ |  }

% D+ ?3 G2 n2 i& M& h9 t; u1 }. |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
: j% ]0 I; G+ v/ T 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。' J5 I* n! G  K4 l9 }/ W
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" [, f2 a2 j# B3 j! [6 \* u( w6 H跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了6 V; [% P: j: W. Z
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta. T: V9 k) z1 e1 Z* h5 d
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 g9 E$ @0 }9 X; hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- q& A8 H0 T4 L0 Y9 l1 l
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 O- d, Q, k! u+ m8 w4 o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" ^( X! y* M; d, y8 |2 x4 Fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' k! N% T& ~# D. b2 l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,3 p1 j5 [' R6 A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 m- t0 W) K6 L& Y2 D1 f1 q+ z' ^7 |may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 u1 j. G( V9 V/ t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# Q, y4 j# ~; }' k" [
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ z7 R3 ~% e: l+ S& P
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 D' f) @! x, w) ?  Y" W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 p- M3 N9 x# r( K% x7 Fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ c3 q& Y3 X' }/ h% qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  s( T& ?* l* h- O/ M4 h30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ u9 o, p5 E! o5 E% d2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# E+ g' L7 Y' z4 DEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' n9 {# V: b5 {. A- [6 Rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ w0 K+ |" F2 g) t; k+ jduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  D! V$ b4 r# W0 B! J' B
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 t0 i7 F" w3 \/ I" [4 d) K
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" n$ o! w! i1 P! [during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( e0 n, B# U: R: d  o
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ d8 F% o% ]; v! d% _8 Jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 R0 V4 D+ c! ~/ ~" Z) y% ]9 U
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* Q; G! `3 U  R2 h, d. Q4 l1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 R8 @, [$ s0 q- y  W+ y2 R
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- A  I! {7 e3 i5 O
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 v5 f: \2 J4 H9 |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 o" G5 w, @3 A( |0 I9 Eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& |7 h" t0 o9 q2 xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% A# ~0 h/ v2 Z/ `, o% s/ l
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) Z7 t# [+ h4 Q% q. y* @: w0 aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: K; y9 V& X: [- f6 v5 u' r9 w) b- v: Nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( P5 @' l! _9 {: \: j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ _* {" i0 Y1 r
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., N' q5 b7 i- E  T# X: z6 q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 q8 ]$ j: p# i2 T1 A6 @# Oboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 N. j& C0 q# m, H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 \3 Q  u' B5 I% _. X" j1 q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ L+ a" x( h' Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 w& n! o/ S% r% U2 ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" }3 H3 {  \/ O/ Qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ i8 `& y% d& [, D( i
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( M+ a! \# V5 P, ~" L/ r
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ ?! z5 J6 ^- E( y) Jresale price in February is evidence that past prices5 b9 o7 R6 G2 j$ }% O
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" h% R1 n+ N2 E
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* y1 q8 N+ f" n5 }; y! ~9 Ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! E9 ]3 H% }7 E: z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" |- ~' ]& d) ?% P- @) r! yleg down over 2009.6 b5 w9 H: f4 t* d) v* \

' l, t* u9 E6 _! w$ s9 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ f/ h" m" s6 l( B" L
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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; t# b. c* P$ }/ n2 X  q* @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
: J5 f  ~  B" F9 {翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 l" N& l, [3 R$ `

& c- a3 G/ s  n. l  {http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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