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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 Y$ G \0 J8 L% Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# n8 |! v' M6 Mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 P+ `. g9 w% l; }- L3 s: u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% |! W* o0 ~ e* o; I6 m, e' J2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
i2 x4 ?1 }+ F. ]: [% s$ Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, k4 I4 E% J e4 \1 Y1 D9 s( M
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ p) Y% U$ h$ s1 c! d, d" Pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 w) ^. M& @8 E+ L$ cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: X0 b; t; I+ P' `+ J* ]
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed$ a& V2 S8 X% ]) ?8 u7 q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined9 `4 u# p! G; Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 U$ J6 U, H \9 S5 O7 N4 h3 I2 n& X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ m) p3 B& k1 g1 _% I; I. ?
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! S7 U& q- F" ~, [/ l4 p4 x6 f3 F
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ |) G3 |% P! q1 F8 l- g: C30,000 new households will form in the province during6 O+ s M* f5 ^7 `% y( ]4 _7 w
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' \& i; b. v1 M% n6 V) ?1 fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 q' G. r7 O3 N4 l
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 V7 x, p3 ^5 L* `5 G1 tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 M# a0 R6 r0 r# X
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% {: o9 F" D. y9 F& _households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. I7 D, z/ g( Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging3 |+ e- s( [* t1 z! [2 i2 l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' i3 D* \: m5 f% D
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 f7 i: i; {% b0 [' m/ G _) v- W7 m
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% K: o8 F* a! A+ v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' Q8 f0 O& w% u# V# e- A2 M Jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ ^5 n& B- i7 S7 N1 w8 @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ ?2 c. M& J3 ]/ Ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 V9 W% M9 X- u7 m( Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; P) t+ y* z6 W- @unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 m d7 g, O3 X+ ~( c
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the* ?# m3 a3 ?4 b) I0 y, Z7 i
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% N8 `, y3 @) G% e1 |: j
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) F% _) z6 Y U7 B
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 Y9 [) t/ o" B# m0 x1 Xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 y( c& y0 \: o9 h! wThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 Y/ m0 f* {& z! p V
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 Q6 D" P+ s1 R) W9 DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; Q7 c0 A0 W; Z& Thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 y( T+ b' ~( z" Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: o$ B+ ]( j- Z6 r( C0 v0 _prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! M1 J- s. P3 d
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. g1 _$ U9 X& h' E2 N* ~" S
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 `+ @" j- n) L; w, O
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) V! N8 ~$ v! l0 d" @
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* O$ i# }. g2 w8 e$ vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ e- S' D6 k& T N; Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* n$ {7 f' D% S
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 Z5 `' r1 {+ F/ N( b; m6 DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# `9 A' P0 B1 ~leg down over 2009.
5 A ^- ?4 q1 M9 E# p& X* _& C7 r* D1 F" {" C
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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