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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.# Q2 t. A3 S9 n4 h5 h0 }

; ?, c8 @2 X; b5 d, A5 `; W3 ?TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 y& n' n$ }2 r

; {, n2 F8 p, gNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ f4 T6 w& }1 J, s

3 C5 q: G( g6 l8 q6 O; |( ITD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 q6 ^( c4 S# z4 B3 d+ f/ ^

% b- C1 W7 H7 ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., h9 Q: D! E0 a' P+ D1 Z: `/ D( B

! W6 N) z9 ^* A( q  y* N2 [Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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, V7 I7 L* j: r% U( i$ ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
3 L, j. s  |! e# I0 m3 j+ J1 a; r' E, e
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。8 N  Z* ^3 ]1 h9 w- f# p
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 w( |4 r# m7 O! @* K& Q* p8 L

& L& }( T+ F7 F  ~: {4 F7 N4 A$ S[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 1 v& m5 S* z4 o' ~5 G( b  I7 l
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

7 {2 Z! C6 h1 |' y很多人都回学校深造去了
1 G( A* [/ V% P( U5 p嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta8 w1 ~2 ^: |+ ~2 @6 E- Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& e+ W9 d0 j; N/ d1 T/ Y0 _. n
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  g9 e, y& F& `! p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 P2 x9 r$ e9 P5 M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, B7 C3 u$ q# H- ^
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  v  F' s3 w$ |  d" R5 n/ |; G
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 X2 ]& Z/ c, T/ nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 H# e4 m( \# A3 r& ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 F: t% n  I+ G9 w
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( D: \8 O4 Z4 U$ @# o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* c3 I& H  k; \! j! C  ~
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ r6 x: p4 g6 @& L* b& F& \8 M
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& i9 o! x# Q% t" h( V' ]& dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,  W& l7 a+ v% c! J) |
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 {& N, S& n5 m  e+ o2 |  R) W* ^30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 s5 [$ D. O* y( b& v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 K+ W6 C1 M6 |0 y( O  CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 i6 H) K1 o8 _# Z' U+ Q+ N( t( Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ V* T- R/ f' Z2 Z) ]8 `: u8 Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. U1 k3 ?! ]2 Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' v( ]( ?6 M/ v8 ^" Ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, Z3 E6 L8 A5 Q. q4 }- N  s9 F
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ ?) Q7 Z/ y; n% K; x: V# a( nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ M6 n" H7 @  f3 G% T0 [, ^# ^
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" R% Q3 A/ T% eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 P8 J- I5 o: _' k1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. L1 S. u! C0 J7 B2 D
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  ^3 [0 j- @3 U( \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( O+ v8 L+ a: E6 g% i$ [% wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 U! |7 R9 ~& ]  p2 Zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 }% K  Z3 d5 f3 N4 a
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 i" G4 I" p. ~! G' p/ Y9 K
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  g7 o) i$ X  E' ]6 K/ O/ Mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 ^7 H- n* x- a& ~
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( c& n5 M& ^4 N; m3 x, K6 ~/ l# R
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 u: |' W- a: p( b
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) y& O0 g& \* p- j+ a
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 o( U* n2 R' E' j9 vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.  ^! _4 Y) @8 ^; ?2 h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan, W& o6 i0 ?5 u2 d" P2 i* b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* P1 t! s  J$ A% B$ n: grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ }7 t4 D4 M# U5 t' X
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. u) N" m# R$ R7 d$ ]5 pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" H- X) K- ~7 N- }
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( W) W, W8 R+ S4 {7 E! ^+ b9 t, l2 {
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& e* G8 q+ @$ s+ W% m1 o) a# q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! q  X+ g1 j. z. R% Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 U- Y: s) @4 C  r0 P4 ^
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' I$ }1 Q. C. ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ T2 Q" s1 Q4 S4 l! e1 d8 VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 b5 U; J4 q+ P% I$ x: ~+ L8 W7 c
leg down over 2009.# j: l' {# D- m0 n

) q) c" f3 q. D0 X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 ?8 E+ d- r- k( o2 u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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9 `6 ^& E6 G1 I( _3 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 ^# g% T, p" f% L$ c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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, `9 s0 P3 o- P5 u$ jhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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6 u0 I' W" p' y8 Q/ F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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