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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
( s0 {7 Z" J- o8 w, P8 I( |+ E+ _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 F( o: D% u2 B: ^6 Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 u8 p, {7 c7 U$ zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ p, M# X4 q' i* e+ K k# u% L* f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ S: ]1 p5 V" `+ L% B$ Q% Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) o6 c/ I5 _' ]
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ F& o1 c+ w. ~; a! Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 N3 v2 i9 ?) _% j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* {4 r* Y# D: s9 w# A. q! ^
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; {+ P9 e' H/ Z4 S+ Q2 Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* m- `" [* c- S) h3 z- u) }" @
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 W- m5 {3 i8 @. K! m
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
o. W# V4 W- B3 D0 eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) `9 z3 _) z8 m7 Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
* }& K: \! U5 ?- U: K g& k2 N30,000 new households will form in the province during, C$ I3 e) C' D* \. c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 g; j/ b2 Z+ d
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 g/ {4 Z( l, z* h6 E; i& m9 ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* i, r& }7 T6 H3 V6 r9 U( I- g
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. x8 I2 h$ J$ G. N& C( j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- E& }9 c {5 O. Fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 \6 f- f, S; m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! ^2 g. S: |2 f; S0 i9 Psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 {9 k4 u' ]3 }clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 J0 j' e5 d/ h# F( F, ~8 A Z0 L
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 l. N) _* u7 D, j2 B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 E! G" v: |/ X1 H z) N6 Z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% x8 r1 J8 \6 a0 G1 Ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* ^# m# ]+ z4 v( G( u, ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" e `0 [* V: wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ D) V/ Z$ l, }* dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; \# L) S _8 M! W4 g! t1 ?& h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( C4 K6 I Q4 x
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, N0 B# N( `9 N! M4 `major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 a- j% J( @5 t- F+ ?$ xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled. E3 e& Z+ y3 r' a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ i- z+ a: h0 ~ yThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ i0 H, y9 T+ aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- Z; B/ _0 O: z0 D8 ^4 P% W0 E! y( {) [Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 K# v% n) M2 e8 l$ C# Xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 s9 r# n- r0 xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% W" r' Z# k" l$ n; W, e! M3 T9 m( l
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' ^$ d9 v* v. O/ v" K2 A& P4 ~
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. D, e3 J7 f" V- `+ ?: Y( u( \
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ {0 D4 T% {4 ]( c) {The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* \' Y$ W8 q2 j
resale price in February is evidence that past prices ?/ k# n9 M3 w }6 D& D. ~ T. W
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 P" M% O e! h' C9 o0 S T3 s3 ^' ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ b* q& F1 z8 D# v7 R# I. Wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 ~6 P0 g- d- ]0 \ d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%7 Z" ~/ d- @5 c: D, D% p9 p4 i" J
leg down over 2009.
& A/ L" K) \1 b9 }- G7 x6 Z- e+ h# g; ~8 l% g' D. a) H
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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