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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% R: T' n% }( m6 j7 ?. T

' \) I" M% L; o" w. O0 OTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 7 u: p, p0 U. h, M

. Q% u. q. l  |"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.6 i) z$ l; o" Y$ [" z

0 }5 V( Q! ^# o+ j' i0 r' QTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.8 W/ d5 K. r/ ?) S& E& `. s# g  c
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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9 I# j/ |: I: V7 h! YTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.+ z+ r9 j7 n( M4 Z  c- o

! b8 Z1 D9 D# N  U0 B5 VMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & I9 S) F" \9 s; T! I- l

0 B" K1 J+ K5 ^6 p; k9 ?8 {http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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. C& @; t" `; R0 x- `8 p/ UTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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0 j7 R$ \* |+ _5 \9 L[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。4 S6 a! g- @1 W
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ( u7 _. P2 J8 k7 k- L
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! W" X& ]+ {7 Z# l. {9 W' @+ `) d- v; ?. k很多人都回学校深造去了
# t8 x$ O/ k  g+ @) F. A嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
7 s2 \; l$ m# @) g5 n6 o; QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: o4 C/ \4 Q+ `4 f& \boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 k* {! K! s! A, Q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( R$ p& A, o1 r6 C7 U0 \! v( N2 N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 g9 j' G1 g. \7 u2 f* R) ]( q& q5 Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 U0 V- ~. g' `" \. ~$ i
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( s3 m: p% ]- e" e; {1 _the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ \  U( w- ^3 x7 x! I& ]7 B7 T
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% d0 r( q1 k6 X4 o7 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 T- v3 Q& {$ f7 R
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" B- g3 K; s. r. k. `to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! J1 H; A, n& ?/ qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# y/ ^: t  W/ o, @7 S! h/ ]: myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: t8 F2 {4 S7 T5 a4 T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* G  E" }9 v7 t2 w8 _  L
30,000 new households will form in the province during; @' r$ O# z2 ^6 F( _5 D7 R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.  a1 f' x0 Z% B' L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 g: E7 Y4 C6 W/ nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( |; t1 P' q$ }& S- M. nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& I& O$ F; r8 j2 J3 I) h+ [/ x) U3 N
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! ]9 u" p* _+ Y( }% _: hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" y) @" f3 g; ?2 C* {during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" T4 u; H" B& ?( u$ ~8 |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* X% J& X  s& a7 L; D
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, z9 w7 Q  f4 Y1 \9 g! t0 [, {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 [' t, u% v1 f9 c1 m7 _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( q- K, o, O4 x6 Usales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 ^3 |$ v7 g3 c- }* ?' F( a3 L1 |3 n
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( S# _/ `  d6 K+ e! e7 L, v5 _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% G& v5 t, K* U* s- ~8 k8 @
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- m# R8 g& \( I1 g2 b2 w" d, K
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 H7 U! B4 ?  N$ _7 irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% T" b8 g: {8 Vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 E) R6 b* v3 f' R9 {- @5 @
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# Z3 r7 F0 E  r+ U# h5 h
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 I8 c6 r8 R* Y& g! |rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
- B) T: f5 B+ Q  \" Y' vThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! f, c3 [" E+ ~. [3 H! Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; {7 E! c$ ^  H( p+ D8 A! ]Although income growth was very strong, Albertan# H, P, Z- N, V6 h) [. ~9 I2 X
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 T& m% ?/ o4 }8 Y% L( yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" a# p3 Q7 k# I& o  O  n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 s6 X. Z' v9 s" tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
/ `8 @, C5 i" A/ A9 S- Y# Bon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& L; F# Q; \+ Q/ \( pThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" L1 z- M' }* v1 y5 U5 E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% S0 s: a& ^$ u1 s
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ c" o1 Y/ f: f# z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 p" ^9 Q" A& ~" z3 L( \8 Ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, ]3 N  ~  f8 f% wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 E$ Y9 e! |2 q3 ], a. z
leg down over 2009.: S7 [0 x( T9 Y1 w

/ z" V% W6 i8 x- N% s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. [2 u# N/ C* s: KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; g7 u" E; X  I) ^0 l( K4 H7 z
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 o& h9 j" p  y, x6 h
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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