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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 u* [) {& h9 E1 ?0 }Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 X! J6 P M# {( H+ M1 {4 d
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, K' i' w6 c# y! F4 D+ rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 _9 x2 \7 _. B& b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 X9 a* p9 H+ e; jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 q. h( i/ I- D( @/ y& e! ~5 e# o
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) o' Q4 s9 F$ C8 [, {
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 L% d! J' `/ ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous; P; i5 s$ U! G/ t( j; m
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 M3 J, J5 t8 g
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- u! v1 |- f- Z9 e
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" }3 I! y1 Z1 W- \) O7 t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ b/ R4 D% o& u0 ^& S& i8 w
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
9 y1 S% C5 b( B# Q7 r2 o6 Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) s5 n$ S. ]; m0 p. B0 t30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 U- \6 S4 a8 e1 u3 Q! s2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ u/ X" ?+ a% P& ^* vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ G) E0 M0 c( P/ o# [! T
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 T; Q* M8 u% D, y$ }during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 T$ ~' D0 s/ A. \3 w6 x' _/ t9 Q$ zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 i4 J8 `% Z3 b8 q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, K$ z+ b3 F: y! [/ `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- M! a& m [+ d! ]4 R. ]3 @sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; b) P) x7 k, F* B. Z
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( p; `( K; x3 Q6 e! G1 x2 Lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; C( F( z3 i' I5 P d
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' y6 J7 h+ z1 I e! y! p/ Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 c! U0 l8 a. i5 p! p) pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. I0 Y. `; k- n4 e. J, B M6 `two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! C* @3 e4 v% N) i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( P% X7 y. s9 [5 A$ w5 u: uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest T0 U4 ~/ X: k0 X0 ~+ A
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 Z" B3 h# c' [. }3 Lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 s% X' s7 I. S9 w1 \1 E9 [* ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; |" Q4 l. |3 t1 K3 C/ Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! C5 X2 x& \+ R6 b% C( @ ^6 n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: Y1 b9 E8 Z; ]* a
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" ?& j. C0 d+ ]1 Q+ ?) \ I. _1 P& z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 g5 }! b% P5 J( i7 T
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan- L' s" {2 w1 Z5 A! k* ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 k% ] O0 J# J# o2 D& a$ I
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; u* g. l2 u5 g! z" U& Sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, I4 [0 b. ~* h! fthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
W( R- X) D% {2 [+ }- V* U4 T* }on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- |( m2 b j0 z4 n! dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 x6 h; k" t. u5 @6 Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices" Z( Z3 B" q, M" G' Y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* G6 z0 [( ~8 G" c1 k- h$ `6 ]homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 U9 b2 F% r; L7 L5 ?deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* B; \5 ^. l* D; E4 b3 ^
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& E$ ~9 E/ j# ^" N- `2 Kleg down over 2009.6 y6 N! o) d) ]+ v! ?
; E9 ]1 F3 P c+ p4 g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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