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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.: q$ ~$ q: Q# U' O. x1 E+ O( t  z

$ ~5 n) ]8 n! e1 l+ j, Y" YTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; L" h9 {, k0 `8 I2 s
+ T$ o# ?1 ]" q: A1 _: d6 v
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # j! S/ ?7 {, b6 h9 s7 x

) j1 m3 _$ F& ]( i1 L5 lNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.$ D6 l2 O; ?& a

/ v2 f7 i) }$ |, R+ O, @TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.: k) K, T. T6 f3 y- P+ K( {
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." [1 a: E  c! M, T& u/ |

( h* m/ x% [8 a+ {2 K9 E( O* VMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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4 X/ N( V5 ?5 W) c5 v* q[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 u5 k9 F. t3 K5 R7 B1 S" B1 C( t 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。5 ~4 }- E( P- u" l, R2 l/ ]

- a8 R8 K3 g% H# R4 H2 b[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 ]. E7 H. ?6 L8 F4 s2 N5 T6 H跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 Y' N  G8 {! h! ^' H/ h3 K很多人都回学校深造去了
  J4 B& l# X, |5 N嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 w  Z$ O* A* r4 A. N" d
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& o+ d0 |& R* t2 p7 `
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  M) V$ \- P' U$ d& B3 ^! Iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ B/ _) M. s5 x. W. C- M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( N# a. e' F: g* _3 Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! Y! ?2 Q7 U/ c& d
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* s# [5 E$ U6 G' Q4 W& J1 }  P( ~
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ A; P. }- M. J
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& |5 x$ ~1 U5 l$ T
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 |4 }' {! t1 u) @) g7 Z, B4 qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 z- l: S  A# y8 tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( S+ S7 z  L  X1 G) Xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- h7 j6 j% P4 ]% K, a2 x5 ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- c% t- }7 a! T( {! T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
0 x' |9 [. c3 G: |, S5 Z30,000 new households will form in the province during5 P5 _0 _' [% O8 V& Z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 r, E, r2 U" T0 o8 P( H1 X
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% Z) `# I% E8 I8 Z( i) c' J0 ]8 Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ w( u( d. p; ]
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 b% ?- B  N. d. shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 q, P& z" e& N. E3 a  |5 f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" @8 o0 O- z' P! v
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) X, `6 C$ d, x7 ^* c( `' |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; k6 a6 Z5 l  P, x8 \9 C: j0 R
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 G: j& k2 f8 j) hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
: @7 G4 N1 _6 ?$ s% P$ E" h5 b, q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( I' Q! E0 M* v% ?* i! @sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 r3 e3 d" |) E% S# r- Cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" `7 t; S1 n8 D/ V4 qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
  c5 y. n4 s3 W0 u2 J- uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 U4 L: b4 ^2 i: y0 R" \unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 T3 S7 K- x8 b! t- m8 w/ ~3 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 u9 D% z: A2 V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 U+ L+ |, F- P1 D1 b
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 H. g* \- ]2 |( [of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- S0 K+ j: ?8 V2 A  s
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( y4 x" G( C8 W6 _' c% ]The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ ~. r  l: O, }1 n- ?boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.( e3 h6 I5 Y+ b3 M
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
, t4 w( U/ L7 p4 b1 D9 L; b+ Uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ d' P( j5 K, xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ X4 W1 A% a( W8 A0 _8 ?
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 D  _+ ?- t, f$ I: J) fthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 w. s2 y3 a3 a8 {3 z/ j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( B* y; K5 O; M" k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. K4 S7 u% o7 Jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
  y+ h* C" a* p7 V/ yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) M# s. b2 y) m% z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 z9 e8 @# K5 D, D2 W& l+ L9 hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 _0 Y) F) H* B$ aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 Y5 N- V$ ~1 Z8 cleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  E2 M4 W1 c+ k3 mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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& X6 r6 ?7 m  g) L" s; M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 0 ]& O3 k3 R4 |6 S
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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