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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 X8 G9 s A. p {& k5 S7 RWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; ]4 G, f6 Q% F* T0 k5 @
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 Y6 _' v) c. ~# k0 C K
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 Q) Q- K9 |% P8 @$ Y8 \6 y0 f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 w* |6 Z: I6 Y8 oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 H2 `7 i9 Q2 q/ X) T
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) e5 N* m% H b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# b! ^% _2 z( j) b5 r! y& J
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 ] f( L) `! a8 R' B, Z/ X
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% G9 [4 f* [* n0 B! Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( e/ N2 v3 }$ Z7 cto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 R" Y- \9 x# s: e
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 L v7 g" A8 ]( u6 ~! Z- H# Dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 D5 G6 D, E6 Y7 Z# J* Z2 t; G
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& |$ Z3 ?* `- L8 G: Y# p) o/ y: |30,000 new households will form in the province during6 a8 E! N1 j: l6 T; h0 H! l! w3 {% o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! |' ~( K6 N- B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 t' I; I/ Q' w& l# u% Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 ]" ^# m8 O! `! j2 U& K4 S9 M. G6 p) ?
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) ?* O% @& Y0 K1 F7 ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ _) d' F% I4 v h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# R# p5 K8 e/ M* j! f2 U
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 i& N, Y- C" C1 ~' i) h; L2 c0 P7 F
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 m2 G: R1 V8 e- j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! O3 V- n. |: g5 M; kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 `/ j4 k5 Y# j* |8 `2 ]- Y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: k, T4 M, W& @) _/ k. Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ {8 t1 s! v# b* ?+ Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- s, k) ~# u9 G) v& ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# C- W: E8 x" D) [8 C* Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% M8 z/ f, Q1 ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) F9 u5 ]3 O: s) o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- o# B F$ K7 L0 B) ^- C! mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! Y% `: H( p: i2 [major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% I, D& C; r$ _- O w
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# u" Y+ q7 x0 m1 |/ M& y7 m* xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! v! y" V0 |6 IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) ^: M. Y% c) G, q1 _" z& @5 O; u
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& J8 h8 ]. b2 W5 ~- w/ ], N
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 T9 ^+ p7 R: s/ H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 t* a" {1 J& D, S9 J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) p' u3 X+ q' v! Q& P+ u4 o' ?prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' g# l4 f3 p( S5 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 I" G; T$ ?! H9 c" Won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 ~' z1 l$ y% x7 y& TThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! ?7 g: X& R# w, K. T7 ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ J8 X o% r5 t2 r E2 | @
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, _8 _! |+ w* v, ]! u |- bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 K' ~0 B4 E+ pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
x' A$ f: ^) R0 O6 j& jAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; h, Z& n# O: a" Z$ M. g
leg down over 2009.
( w; a% \2 a3 w& v2 l) o& F# Q* a) h- V# x3 j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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