 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ N" w* Q- n4 R& B. d; NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. @8 i9 d& u/ P. F0 h' cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 d- e4 E5 _ z! n4 _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 h$ v, ? f" Z7 m: s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. z) m7 I- s, wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, C1 W5 D$ |5 B, @4 T2 r
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 t8 K# l: r& D+ G! `, b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 k* \3 b) k' A8 b: E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 ]1 s: R; J. A5 k4 M
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% [! v; P8 r d+ }. e; g1 @5 i
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, O8 H, J/ y* h$ x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; _) [# S& Y' z* N+ x; X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 i/ l( M& B5 j$ n
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! g) q! { X: o7 m2 V; g" ]* W* j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) E) ^4 h! q4 P- z30,000 new households will form in the province during( L T" N8 w/ Z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ y0 D0 g! [ f( c, ?+ CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 X: p# l( z4 t( C' Xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: y. ^ b8 r% y: H" F; t" h& W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! I; A ~. p2 n4 ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, ]' _; p; C0 ~ E2 P' p- Chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals }1 q5 k0 w, u& z: S0 w5 g3 Q' E
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- ~, ~: Y3 l* W3 O# V
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. `1 P+ T: |# g" F
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* h& s* \5 j0 a D% z! c. l) Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ V0 ^+ ~7 ]1 D1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' W) o9 i: H) O8 Z# X7 G7 o; {3 r( G# b
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 f7 p/ x& w4 d+ \# qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( @# n7 Y& W3 p4 G/ t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! m2 g1 _1 H1 X8 v( q6 Runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
?+ K# E6 o# Y/ S8 Z; Q0 [unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* h7 B! h& Z" W1 [recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. E& z+ j+ j: Q, L% ?" T( L$ ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 \ o1 _; ~( Z2 A/ V8 X3 Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 ?( T" l1 F& A$ Y7 [5 C6 |
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 i, e5 F: @; w2 G* w8 c
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; F$ Y! V+ H$ P' } \# \2 r. R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 d3 ?2 H! p1 E* _/ t+ nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 w/ [. r# o% ZAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan" ]4 G, j" X5 l# q9 H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced z/ z5 c; G8 ]% y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ |3 x# m" l' v5 |5 O8 c9 o. W! `$ }
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; O; r0 j% f& z/ lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 _0 c5 w/ U5 B) b# O+ \
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& D; x/ r) \- W0 dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. e% {# t9 B7 T+ ?1 J/ E( n" H L$ u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* }0 r. i6 _ J, r
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, N) R. r4 J' yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& d$ s, ~' `! edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; Z$ { b0 w, f/ P0 a; A6 i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 `5 W& J1 s. g8 a5 e9 eleg down over 2009.5 B: {/ {- V" _2 o% @
6 x' Z& C9 B& ]! h- s
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|