ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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" G& g; [( U" y4 a$ wThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

/ t( {8 @  [0 U/ x! j% DNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.

5 i' x  L% q. ~) c! _4 KTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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2 j8 B! t* H: S8 a6 Q' V9 ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

6 l% N8 ~( w5 G; j: r4 R[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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& G& G9 O% M* B* x3 @" J  I[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, u$ G6 Y+ G, j6 w0 w很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
. d' `0 ^! {' C) [$ KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, ^+ @* X+ }9 U/ ^, Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ j" p3 g3 ]; T- Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) s4 V9 Z+ c! z0 g9 efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  m) O( o8 C8 j8 e' _: H( W$ {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. c6 Q4 l  ?& s2 D7 \/ epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 O6 l+ f4 K6 u$ y& O; Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: ~  v3 [5 V( z0 {. V4 ^3 nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) \" n3 g' v& o% c- u) l; S( Thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 m& v8 j8 o! H/ x5 ]30,000 new households will form in the province during
) O9 c* R; b0 }5 [" l7 B5 u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. p- }4 M, v% ?1 n$ a. }4 K+ AEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" A+ V3 B: N, y8 J+ |6 O# e% ^0 d' e1 phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) _% G5 `# i/ _5 E- nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 B; E& t/ ?1 Fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- M$ [  M7 W4 e+ y$ bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) C# P4 l4 T6 X$ n( A$ [6 ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" C# k1 }$ I8 Q1 gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 i0 G% c9 U# Q) q6 J+ {$ W3 ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& @- K" J: F5 z$ _/ Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! `6 x/ u0 m9 x% h- yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 W# ^+ I/ j0 a2 w  l+ H! Z+ ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, R: E; i- _0 X8 Arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' x: B) ~) N) ]$ c8 F- d% w, Wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 Q0 q5 L' ^+ F6 i$ Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* W7 N1 H) m' N2 G, ^  y1 bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 G; ?9 b2 ?% X/ q# Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  f; R8 \$ X4 w* Uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% w5 T7 n8 C$ \/ T% z; t4 ?* kresale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ y7 E$ P: \# Y5 H6 Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 k6 o3 U4 u! i; ?6 xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 r" c: L1 A  xleg down over 2009.
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9 C( h9 r  i5 _2 u0 C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# m; y, H# y0 x% g( RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' B" X* V) ~* o  E# N( y翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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$ z, E, C! D3 M2 B) d  Mhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

2 @' ]! ?7 u! ?7 ~% r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing