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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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, }3 |& C$ W; V: l2 mTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 3 J' i" U; s( f) U% Z1 N3 y5 I

2 D7 H# \+ L( N' c7 r& d+ @3 T5 hThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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( k: h" k- v2 hNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* G" d1 D7 l9 X5 B' m
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- }$ Q* Q1 D$ F9 B; V! J* w/ p$ p
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; }% y& y7 Q( |% w
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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, d8 T4 a. g- g( }# @http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 b0 d7 t8 u- o& q# Z( ^2 Z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 2 ~1 z9 Y( ~8 L) Y7 m5 d
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了) B0 o$ h* f0 ]' B4 R1 |
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; z4 v/ }0 M4 G9 Y" z5 t: M4 m& S
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) h) K% u# y4 `" ^3 Z; [4 F1 b
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 e9 Y% l5 j8 V4 O* |$ v/ f/ t0 fare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 B+ b: e! E8 |% f8 @7 Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 U/ a: [2 N/ ?* |formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! K3 f% W, y' u: R0 t. g" z" n
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* c7 q( }2 Q3 H' E- \the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 `! U2 z. _7 N' E- N; tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 l7 d% j" V- c; Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 t! O9 p% }/ z" @+ w6 Y" p7 jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 g; w) J% [7 p* p
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 X& a  d4 u7 o3 x' _
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ G) T+ O; M% a2 oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 h; x* }0 w" H  {- n# shomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. o- A/ ^" V2 o) ]+ U$ X30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 w  ?  F  M& N$ u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# Y: w8 |8 ]; `( qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 g" {2 S- K# J. `- ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 h! d7 _. d  s/ @
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; H. O7 Y) H7 `8 Y, t' phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 M" n: ^8 V; X7 f* s
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; X; X! D1 E( b$ ?, D$ W6 K
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) r# z) i9 t, a  x% T/ L
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) Y9 _: b" r3 E) U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& I3 t! L* B" T& |6 z  V
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 V; O0 Q& t. z  b% @- s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; }& b8 r( u$ L; ~
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- k, P, n5 E2 _. h4 r  m3 t" S' nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- }. `) v# o% h9 D; Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 Q/ I/ K# U6 S/ Z! D; ?% I/ o
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 W8 M* j7 i0 y; F# Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. H2 N: g( S, _+ q; y- g* x& ^6 v( Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 ]/ G* S+ ^9 w9 r% k! A9 C# uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ c% W/ T) E; `: D8 b6 T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 ^, l  q: }" j& o5 [) yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 i) p. K5 B; l( C9 q/ W5 w5 xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 w, L: `9 T' M- GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) @5 n3 C* A8 O
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." v6 {# {! |  g2 C$ G
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ Q1 `1 l7 m" g3 mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& M7 S' A, |8 X( D% f0 s. k& wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. g/ O5 T2 H7 ~6 T
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even- x( Y. [- N% n' {  f3 V
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 x, i" i( ~: Y* M( con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: t  G; t% F7 i3 w: f* dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average  _# W8 o5 C5 |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices9 \4 I9 _# M5 F. F+ J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# M, v. k% Q. Q) @. n" Jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" ~6 B$ V5 p! n) A: f0 B
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; m+ o) ^4 |# X7 z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 p1 T0 J4 S- d& e+ \6 Pleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: j  J/ k0 S0 z# b! \; B% L
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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8 f8 Q; [& m# o' [. T1 V9 g. ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, r8 R  x! R0 C4 v! Y6 z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 f) _2 W9 N# G0 L( x9 g9 F

. }" Y0 K# J& o' b+ q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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