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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 U( Z& O( Q1 bWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) C% R$ W' z/ K4 v2 k. Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ @0 y/ V, o( q: m s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" K% W8 W0 B) i- t. b/ p' R
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, S' g- H- O5 l' W/ N. C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* f' y# l4 Z N, z* s# H- bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ \6 U5 f# m9 f0 X! x0 X
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 F- P2 I* ?( |& b6 Z; N& O' _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ O( t1 n+ p- T P! j5 K7 [5 d" wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, u, S7 f# P7 J: }" wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; m0 l! D0 p. o- H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ ?0 R5 a7 {2 Y ?9 i; I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 V0 m' }4 c7 t$ T4 zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- i. H( o; m8 N& E+ `+ S4 Ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, I0 x) E! [* U0 F5 l& v30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 h1 v6 [: h2 k0 n7 A2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 |# S5 U6 {& {& I+ c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: Q3 S: z- ]+ |6 m1 |! k
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- ~0 [* M) M4 A8 w+ W' u4 Vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 S5 C2 D; m. q7 }; {8 N4 n5 qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- `. t" V( r: I( h$ k6 O3 y4 Nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, V( M8 v# L: d5 i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! ~6 [4 F* y1 hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 ^! Q0 u& }; n8 E1 U1 a& f3 l$ \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 I% S: y3 i! _1 `* F9 _6 X* |) Dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 y$ D8 T5 p) x6 D0 Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ E8 E1 [7 k zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! _+ t. X! I6 x
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# `" m$ z6 i- D1 j8 S. l/ d' |. otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 t/ j" g. w% C# X% y; N- o
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 l0 {: g9 ?4 v8 \. W8 H
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- H& \4 b* n- z" @5 Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 ?) h. L) F6 v! E* K
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 Y; R# f% i: m' k* i5 d3 o' Imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
: M/ T, l7 _: V6 |of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 E2 z! a( K+ z9 Q2 u% t' o2 erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 ]) m/ B# E0 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 M& v4 m" P3 q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- f% E, J( A2 \& Q9 h w _Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ k7 G1 n' R1 J9 p3 ]/ r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' p: D% s3 l' i. s! O, V+ _
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 Y8 H3 I' ]) G$ s2 J7 q; z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 k6 R0 o6 M3 C. [( F. u2 G+ W9 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; A9 h% X( g4 f/ N; H$ gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' F% P* H. X/ Q1 B: E0 A( T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 G r+ M( N* W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 K* `9 Z% K3 ]' v" C; o U: Iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: s* M: _9 N" T p8 G+ xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( k. M1 z* ^- `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 z7 a9 \/ O+ b; n! R: P/ [$ V& t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 M9 M" F0 [2 c
leg down over 2009.* o8 ^" W& y$ g; h {' i1 R
" P5 }6 P) q1 D, w: O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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