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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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$ R) F% A2 J& M# s# Y& ~+ ATD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ; u' h& ?4 F1 p

# p2 O/ C1 H8 m: k8 b! r" C2 r5 iThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % }" m$ r! s+ r" `1 v' F/ o
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 5 L  u' ~( s3 [# S4 Q

! O  K3 i2 B4 x3 ~' R7 tNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* p4 n' d/ D" A$ M+ B
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.! V9 P% c* ~# t" r! M2 k

" w! }. H! P" H+ f* O& V8 l"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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2 K- c  ?- F, y8 x2 ~TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.9 x9 f/ X/ L: e, L

1 R0 ~% U0 K" c) S& GMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - ^+ p8 J% b3 O) ~. M7 s

8 W2 n* h9 m- v5 D: M5 Nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,; M4 k: O0 A' M) C( q' x8 d% a

7 ~  i: w9 k3 [) g! `$ r. a[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 R" \" r4 C$ q3 \9 H- W 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; O' @. o$ ^! O6 M
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / ]9 \1 U( Y/ o0 F& c
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

0 q: z0 n2 _5 o9 X; q9 v$ u  N* j很多人都回学校深造去了6 v8 R3 I. `1 j' z  q) U4 b7 g4 Q1 u
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ F  k  G6 W) i/ ?1 D  v1 }6 X
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! D$ A/ C' @. [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- j% `4 R; w& z3 B+ mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& H5 @) _" q( |. Z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" _% q: w5 D8 p& d9 |( ]) Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* m# G' k; b( m1 bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: m; _5 |# }# w$ Z4 w; [  e
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 D" S0 I" N0 l" |$ J/ |, J7 p' zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 z0 W! w4 ~1 |
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% f. ~+ r) C) f/ }) `2 y5 I5 |- q1 W( o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, P  R4 Y7 O) ^, ^8 b2 H7 D8 X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 T5 T9 ~( V5 Z: p: x
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 g( z: h, C. C/ }; z6 e9 \& O
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) C/ X! x& ~/ X# ^1 X, E9 I9 Y  Bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& [7 |/ b4 E* m, S$ ?# \( d" w+ b# c2 p
30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ ]) _* j$ w* h8 L  d2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 I8 `9 P1 X% g- x1 L0 }  ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% w9 @2 l- C5 Y9 z' p# k
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; |/ U4 E4 Z6 a: b5 H. V
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 H' a6 ]; d& r. {. w4 _2 U. i! s
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 B& ?9 U4 o3 J* d, ~. b! m1 Qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ W: y; g/ E: H- s9 u! L8 ~1 C
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 ]/ c3 M. _/ p
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  [3 Q) [7 w4 `" J9 {clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 `" V0 Z. _! ?! z& lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; H) V$ r. T# @4 j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% T5 p( s: W- ~" L+ y2 b3 g, qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: x( H. ?6 C1 z( S
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  s2 J/ q- b- c8 g" `' C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 N- J0 K! q- o2 [9 @% J3 X( wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- _: |/ M$ P  M7 F7 b* c9 Cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ e+ |- j$ s  q- q4 S) j  i
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 h9 B) }) w9 {( _: S8 Tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 k. g' r' z& j. h/ B/ w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' |+ _4 s9 i( N$ s; Q; A- Cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! k1 f& z' @% D
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ n$ j* i. L' P, G$ s7 \9 RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% u8 @1 B) @) s4 n3 W. f  c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 G" \9 H3 K% C6 V* @
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
' s  H& M3 @* a6 t# }; X0 a& Bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. E5 \. R6 r4 D$ `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# A3 }- L; c( ]6 K7 o) |% Q- Cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even% r% B" Q/ ~  U
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% L8 v: T7 [( ]0 _8 pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 P9 W8 h) b' @) |The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 \1 Z6 k, h: H8 Y6 Jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 {- a$ x% p' N; \) uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 J, p4 Y# f/ `* J" z4 P- b& A
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 J8 T" u; @' b7 w' R; [. W  {4 qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% ?4 t4 B% u) A# d2 ^0 ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ w7 W1 l/ P) a; @" I8 K+ g5 c* i1 J
leg down over 2009.9 ^2 S1 ]! b- N  f3 o( v

& ^5 d. Y$ t& _2 ]- }: I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 W/ C+ n; A1 C1 e8 QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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0 i/ a+ a' [; }9 W6 v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 F( H. g, T( M- u+ Y- X* ]8 K  e( n翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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3 }0 T: y! r% R. shttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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5 u. |+ R' C/ Z& `. G: L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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