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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.4 D3 x- j4 A3 i  L- O# m% R
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ' F! n: C1 {; h; n! ^

. o/ y% U! f$ G; {, {5 JThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ j8 k2 \% a) c2 R
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.4 g- i% X  B- L$ i

1 ^- x+ ~2 z6 L. c0 ]"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 0 r% X3 s9 p$ }# e
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 _: W4 L' H) q) d
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 |+ j9 P4 K3 p" g7 l 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. e' X& M& K0 P  v
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
2 r1 b1 S' r' b0 K4 C4 E  b9 e  K5 |跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
, ]& I6 {- A! Y$ Z- v嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
/ e6 H. l2 J# [8 R; `5 _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 S. \. H6 A$ V( Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; O" {& M  h3 _! bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# a' X2 A7 g2 p) ^, ]( A$ I2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 N) Z; R9 c4 h. ^8 q$ P# v+ Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 A; C3 u6 c" i- A$ g7 X" }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  m4 `4 l  m' M" dthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 j% @3 _8 g' g( p
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- J0 F( M1 C1 @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- q  c) k( z4 K, D) b8 z+ Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, O0 t4 r. B* s/ a+ \to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 e7 R6 Q  l$ \- C! Q! Y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; I& d( V8 g7 C
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ X% U9 n4 Q( r' |6 ]; e, {! r
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) y0 W7 }: @1 g+ K0 P/ Y8 Y30,000 new households will form in the province during4 S( n, O/ ?9 J8 Z. Y4 c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., X: ^7 ~* \" v/ |0 k* ^. M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ S0 m3 F# B/ J' x/ k, yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: d7 E3 _& G- H5 Q% R
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, d4 Q$ S6 Z3 h0 ?( H5 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! \6 Y4 y, C2 T4 K9 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, t/ y+ ]  B; Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 r* k  [6 H+ U( M; D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 `6 G# `+ S' U1 i3 Pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
  o& w  M9 S$ |* kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  ~# e+ y7 ^% a0 e# n4 A1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- n) n8 G2 i1 Y  L$ P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* u2 F* `  B9 D; l. w$ G  gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 K: c% g) p- ^" dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) X4 l. l$ P; Y3 Y% T* Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 g9 V3 {# n  d! b% a# nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 [3 l4 \7 L1 Q, v; S" w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 ~1 i7 c! ^% Jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
  H# S9 ?6 ^, }. |! \3 Gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 r( ?; F  u+ I) T1 sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 P- v' s( }2 e$ g4 prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 V$ \* T7 H+ R$ \1 _) a* sThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 |, s  A6 A! V7 Z& }, Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 {0 a/ C! V$ \$ e) p2 o. }
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan. [) D; {  \" B* p% s. i! M; ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 L. S/ R. m2 [7 `" i( u
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* W4 q; h8 o) b
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 ?* O- E. L( ~6 C7 s* t& q7 p2 X5 L0 D1 L
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; r+ X9 S4 @6 t' K2 non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! K, t, z% I$ @- I/ iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( t1 H6 s0 M) E  x8 E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
) b2 r# |  `" n2 k# y* E, b" lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; I# {2 q; j- X% _( x* u- c) Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 r& W" Y" p' S  s2 [/ X& m1 e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. F) n+ N  n: l+ LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 K" A5 R) T# yleg down over 2009.0 n! ~6 W+ B4 ^; H

* S6 H, ^7 Y; m1 g/ t* p& y) v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; T; [8 ~  D& q! N& yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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; A% o. K0 z* U5 |" {% A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. % q9 O* v8 |3 s. Z0 t
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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$ ^. L  G8 z( ^, N+ yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments- k& k) x/ p) p/ j
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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