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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta z( P/ `5 _& X- b* A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 T a0 S3 t8 d6 D" D6 ?boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ O% L# }' {* Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) e. s9 ]& \/ A0 s9 v2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 C& R; q# \0 t- U( N$ m: P# aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 q7 E) l* F- L" u( jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) |. Q- P9 x' T8 T$ v+ hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 ]8 m) r6 t8 r; r) ~may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* v/ F* X z* h0 U( f G6 o8 P
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( ]9 _2 f3 i, y* ~
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 h* f' U: ^+ Q2 c3 {6 q3 S
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 i! r1 ^; Z" j0 N' q4 C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 U' ^5 }* \* n, a6 \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: D# {9 {, I1 @8 U3 Shomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. M: r% h% y0 M' j( D5 L" Q0 ?9 v30,000 new households will form in the province during7 S/ c6 S- ?6 z9 Y+ a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 `5 P, V& s4 i! X9 r- o" X0 X
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- g/ z- V6 ~' K& |& g( q2 Xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ n, w3 D( R c
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( [- c5 a3 w- l( b3 M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 H' X5 u4 f% q9 d
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 }+ \1 M% _6 ?during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: v8 _/ e% p4 k9 F T
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 l$ h8 X/ A/ t( w* E8 M! f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 i8 k; F: n% N- Rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 l7 A* f4 y- ^/ ]( O$ Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 m' D2 Q8 r9 v% \7 B7 v0 r8 `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 j$ S( G* A$ x& dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( G2 C0 i' q& I4 x
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" O$ c; O- M* o8 ]
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& m' P2 [5 x- u2 G% \0 Zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
\( g' Q- I8 U+ N/ erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 V3 ^' g3 g; ?% sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 b P4 r- h( p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ ^+ K W8 ? G7 h+ }2 s& Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 h4 _9 Q/ P& ?! `
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 u q& D+ `- a- | t( Q6 @4 B4 A# f3 xThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 d! W! M5 @' S: N- @. wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
c/ X' z c. ~/ `7 fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
# V V1 d I( }8 p: R. khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! a6 U4 ~2 G% T8 r1 I8 K- b
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& R6 b( Z2 i* q# v+ D: P ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ v; j" `6 i8 g8 `
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& g1 i. T( Q- y, c" I. b4 q! @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! k7 ?. z4 c- }6 d6 ~% QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 ~9 Q' g. k) ~* [- ? ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices% X# E* ?% n6 f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 A/ V% M# e' \( O {" zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
Y8 g2 s2 n: Hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 S: a1 F5 o( b
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 b3 @- I/ q1 s5 d
leg down over 2009.
8 g3 X- I- W) h8 }1 i& c6 X& X( D9 Z3 B: G4 C/ U6 J" [$ ~9 r Y' D
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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