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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 w9 V8 f8 M% y1 C% D! l9 l
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & X, z9 W* @# r( c: m6 q& l

+ i5 w. e) \& J" sThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) h3 H* @, F: _* i

9 V- m8 O9 \" Q: [0 c3 k: mNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; o2 L. w' I7 [6 a" A

. w; g/ j7 k/ Y7 \6 |/ KTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( c8 T6 k0 e3 \3 Y
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.! L" [1 L9 s1 F! |. s

8 m* B! G6 p+ g- OMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 4 C4 F) ?) M; m" a

# Z9 P9 h3 g0 r9 |( v5 _: Ohttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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7 s* \: t$ d7 Z8 }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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, K% w. W% j# s& |! W9 N[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
+ H4 y" z* A8 Z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  M$ \# m6 m$ b5 d1 M; \

; J8 U6 v2 ]  |  A; }[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ z: s, y9 M( u$ I& N跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了: {8 g% K0 `! `  B! f2 A  U8 g
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# o9 T6 \& m7 ~/ GWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) {' y+ \5 q  l$ q$ P) f) [& i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 c. \7 Y# Y9 a% y/ j1 c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 a( _1 d, d2 W' Z1 |- s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 R5 H& H3 R5 ]
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  O5 _8 @5 F6 K" w7 R* W
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ l& y7 C/ r# ]; e$ k) J
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 m0 D, Y( h) n8 _$ _0 ?may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. D! S& N: |6 D! n7 y, w
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 w  B5 a6 B( y9 p5 X& K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# F( @3 s1 j& l" A0 w
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ Y5 V  |2 a: |4 |: n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this! t1 [0 {/ q: U
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ c* P0 {2 \/ {6 }- m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 Z) N$ c0 r; u" U; M+ x4 w- `
30,000 new households will form in the province during" y0 J6 ~, s" B/ ^! y' A2 t* z  f
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 ^* H* ^8 {) p4 s. T& B( ?! vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( S; |+ y; b  c! d' Lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! n1 z5 |  D% t* F0 X
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) |% _9 t9 n/ L) \: a# rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# H& Y1 c! o8 c: N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* z  U+ M0 ~4 k$ @) G. k$ x0 X( lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; _* [6 G* M' ]: _1 G0 `
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# W" s; F5 k# s; J
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" X5 }+ |4 K. F3 _6 R! a. [$ Q' O& \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( m7 E' W3 `8 V' C1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: E. A9 v7 u6 ~. ?: d9 {- u8 csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* s* }7 Z6 g( Y4 ^$ |- \( ~
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ f) d$ {/ R$ W6 `+ _
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 y7 r9 y& N. ^' `
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% i5 [7 ^; k; N9 O3 B; gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest. k; p  F0 [5 B; r1 |
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; }9 Z) n# @$ X% ]
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 w% i' D5 e  J# O: l5 l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 G4 w+ r" u  E# J6 ^, t
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled" P) R0 e& }" c, P) p; V
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 X) A8 g1 r. R: aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: r6 w' c: c7 V( ]( s1 Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* E6 O8 ~& e* }2 h+ o7 y6 v+ g
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 n/ `! h* X  qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 t+ u2 o2 I/ n. Q4 u
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 U  @' G6 }% }, [8 U: X
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! k9 p- t- |7 X0 t3 l6 r% H! j
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 l" B% c* f9 L2 C+ ?on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" |$ J% Q+ n. j' G: y: p; y" RThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! m! F1 s* D9 F. S, @$ @' u/ e
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
- v% _0 T, ^/ bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* D3 N3 ~3 `1 _1 Y- o! ~homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% G4 J( W! j* V* B# Y& ^' L% {% z* L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 }: R& B6 ^$ A$ A9 M: X; ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% B8 [( b( M7 l& Eleg down over 2009.
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: z( u, s5 f2 s/ Z7 N3 ?6 h; K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* E  R  Q; X! I' s( ~& o1 kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. , A. Z7 w! h: V3 e7 B& s
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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0 A5 C, A* }6 K) X, Ohttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 `8 V* F; s6 M/ `$ w4 A
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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