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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta8 L8 V5 P) \. l2 n5 p b; u8 X, R
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* B/ z0 A( i. Q7 k0 f \
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 L8 P/ y) P' \4 J- R6 c/ i4 Ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 h+ i9 i+ W' J! P7 u' n2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' X# t$ U+ O" c( V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 N& {) [# g; {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ N6 K$ n N; k% T/ U; b# Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: v2 N: H( x- c) G1 D0 Z/ Lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" ~% J& |+ D9 l0 e) vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ C5 J9 L1 f+ |! s: u& p
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. [1 M7 r! t d$ a, A7 R* ?- z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ ]6 a. ~- W d8 [: E% x5 }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 y& ?' g6 _: Z8 i+ C# G
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' n# U: f, V! \9 H2 P. e$ Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: K3 T+ |5 e" r+ I6 |
30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ x! w( x1 o' n9 n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 ]9 \2 O4 e$ s, AEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% S. j# k7 K' `% s* G
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 h+ W+ G( L& [ T4 z v4 J# oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( |8 l+ j" _* h2 w( |has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( `/ i6 Q5 @4 O7 a8 ~1 J2 p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 ~+ ^' {' R8 Z. |5 P8 Mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 c1 x2 i9 r+ n6 i. k R
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
w9 {$ D! e% `( c# ~- A% Rclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 S- b6 s7 V8 H& C' Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 f2 m2 d/ w4 f, i
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 \' m3 k2 Q/ Y! S" @+ B% gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 a4 m$ c" z m; S# j% \$ Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) A; F3 N1 L+ \& v' O
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 d, y8 |. e6 m* g# b! A4 B9 x |9 |unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ o* N- b6 ?; A" g7 o. N dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( ^$ S: \% z* x5 _- w8 ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 c% D" {' W! G1 C, F: mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' ]1 M; q9 {! N
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 ]$ y: P% }6 mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 Q( f' W1 b, G3 G2 Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! _8 O/ A% w3 X( @9 i+ V; D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 w0 _7 \# q1 X# Uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ I: h% K" R% u0 l1 \- l( EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# L" V# Z3 r9 i8 K' ^( O
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" C1 V/ u" I- U
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ Y) n( K6 @) t: L4 v2 I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
M6 P4 d' U/ _$ ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 K' |1 R k: ]' _ d8 O Yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 Q/ v, {$ ^* @8 A# v2 b/ i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" C4 }* [- n! m7 \# x3 x5 {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
/ J* C0 o0 |7 A2 I7 f7 m6 Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, Z, ~' K$ M0 v# P- r: d' D
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; T2 [( M" L' V5 f& o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 X( |' R% U8 K7 E; p3 J% ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ [- z8 f- c* S4 ~: W9 ]5 g& L. Eleg down over 2009.
% ~. ?! y8 N. }9 {1 `& U+ V. I" C4 h& [: K( \6 [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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