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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
- D$ f, f+ D( D/ x- s: ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% z$ \/ {$ Q+ u+ kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% w$ K' z6 g% L9 { x5 L/ {; C6 [! gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 n* O, m* A9 P. P$ y1 ~5 Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; e$ u# y' G& r m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. v7 |' z" k1 E6 B8 \) |1 Wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& `+ ^3 Z B& Q" G! U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 z0 z' D3 e, Imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 C$ Z( E+ v0 G/ Y* Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 w2 N6 ^: |3 g( f3 Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 q6 {2 W* v# m, e7 a5 k! q) S/ s. s4 L3 i
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. l8 `. g. h* P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 u" |6 x3 A$ e& w8 Y9 U% t4 Hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; y! L* S& Z7 k, N; [/ _9 R( h. e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 Z$ {! Q& S' M) ~1 z7 N
30,000 new households will form in the province during" M+ a. r: O2 @. ^' w3 b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 i g! J4 g2 O- M+ v VEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ I" O- w) z2 v7 ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 i! E c Z, G/ h% D2 w2 V' uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ x3 N" P l' v( r4 mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# U! C: o' [* Z2 V1 N* shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* w/ R7 g5 H, c5 G3 qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 O G2 ~4 z6 \% m3 H. vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" l4 M/ V( ?2 h4 z K8 Gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ I+ F5 Z5 y* W0 o+ k
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 g: Y% i. s- e4 S$ F' B0 B
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a s/ [& q9 ^6 x: k# T6 y9 G/ D
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, C( v! R8 ]- [6 E: ] v! N5 Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 E; S, J3 K/ G
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 h. v$ \/ ^# R Y! s! e5 K$ wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 r* A3 e8 _7 A1 r' f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ @% r. L" `% E! |9 q' c3 U: z( u
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 v, T: |: R( ^8 K8 K7 O* E2 R0 `* y# q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. V5 d X* \( S* Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& u% z* X& C! D! \" \& {9 tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled, p; i% S% u6 z# M1 f" [& j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 d, w4 T( d! R7 Z1 e; d5 A7 o$ F
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 N" R) W5 C) D) L% r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., f+ a! e. E0 V1 h8 v7 F8 K
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: W, r6 o" ]6 F( y+ d) T/ z; b! yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% e$ Y2 |# p% ^3 y, q hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ X& W4 X) v0 _prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 X" @% f" e$ z# ~/ _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 f: Z+ w6 _! t( S% e Xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 l# \ K- ~$ x6 WThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& I/ m' U2 t8 c$ o( R" e0 z( W! \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 _# A$ f1 P; g3 b
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' V; ^# c3 R1 c" G
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' i: F6 p+ g/ k" E, D$ z0 k% G$ V+ zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 I+ K! f3 J& ~& y @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) K- P2 M; C) B
leg down over 2009.& P7 ?1 a# M6 a8 `
, |! b/ U0 |5 x i; B8 X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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