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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta% z6 q P) r# V L/ I% Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" C/ ]2 h* _3 L+ ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" P% k7 H/ w. n7 i3 A" d7 h
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' D: C: Z. Z: F; t9 s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( s8 C+ ?4 J2 |1 t$ L* _ Q7 N% M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; _( K, d3 @7 b) R% h4 q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- K7 z! S. B- r8 M8 G: L' v
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) F: T3 I# V* w* \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& C: _/ H# u8 e1 i% _: opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 D8 w8 Q7 w% B% i! }
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ F! X, q7 E. i) Eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; [8 D. C8 R7 k2 v$ b% I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 \) C- i. r" K9 V
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ u0 p5 s" M0 d, v7 c( ]2 S* i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 O" E5 v* V3 U
30,000 new households will form in the province during7 t4 H- f; ?7 I# S; ?1 \7 ~# L' t E
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. \9 G7 N$ d: N+ Y' H fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 ]7 e: X4 x. T6 X; I. Y1 j
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( M( S* k7 A' J8 T. n7 }) \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) U# h$ q3 M/ p2 [6 u6 \has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 U2 ] W/ |8 o7 V' f2 H2 L% mhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 l! ~2 A! e/ Q/ P( p9 r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 ]; K& X0 Q4 Rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. ^" p4 z- k1 Gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is( h' C; T+ A/ i! h3 _/ K, R
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; b- R4 y( r/ p, O/ F% ^6 K. j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 a5 J; i; @9 T" m ~
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 G3 e$ V$ Y5 O2 g% J" }" |# M
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 H6 n/ Y- C2 C2 z5 m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 h) Y( a1 G) E/ u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" l0 [1 B, S6 j z* o- W+ ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 t- b/ `' a5 e* s7 d Y& B) B% ^recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' c Q$ C' N: b+ V6 Z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" x3 m( m O ^8 L+ o+ G
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( H; S/ _; ?& w9 w) f$ lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled* c8 N( f$ X) R9 [% ^5 E
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# O2 `/ Q* {5 i% x8 s# f/ J6 i) ZThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ C' W. u' k! h% V( x4 ^# F" {. _( Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" v9 N) m- D+ x% zAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
' e5 W4 d2 N0 Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ k0 h2 l5 W7 N
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 D- d* ~5 v4 g: G D) M1 q& hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 Z* v5 D- R+ g! U) s& K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ u$ Y7 P( M7 t' A/ Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' N' s2 K8 o9 `+ U! E8 g* L
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* S" O8 h+ p3 ~) l6 presale price in February is evidence that past prices' a- U. E1 K, p3 B7 F4 B. G
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 n% T. I/ C; j* c5 Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 k9 j8 t& g* y$ \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 h# ]- e f, h7 o( O8 {0 l. r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 M6 h! W8 U' t# D/ n* {
leg down over 2009.9 t. E) B: X" ^4 |2 V. e6 X
( S2 `& ]% `- ?7 F3 T
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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