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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.) o& t' v* ?+ X" G& M  o
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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; i! y1 C' h- [6 a* ?The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. $ d* q8 T: t; d( C- \, [

' [" o7 s  F5 d; n"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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' Q) W& L7 c' D6 ^"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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* }: N2 R! @$ r. b2 ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; N3 c8 ]2 K0 E1 Z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 }% |$ ]; m- \% a& h4 z
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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6 ~: a+ r( c7 K* H! o, j# FTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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3 x. w; a5 r. P& _) b[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
$ Y$ g! S" v, c 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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; m0 c/ |& X. \2 ]0 C[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" ?8 F/ a. \0 T% O/ X跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! ?& j+ d2 x1 e% f3 d# ~很多人都回学校深造去了
" E4 Y3 X8 ^0 Y4 r; ]嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
  P; \9 j% K, o" y: M6 m6 {8 eWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. I8 ]5 D: A# `* W
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 x) @- t+ M/ x. W7 p+ j9 U( J* b
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ U- b9 p2 I7 @! j- m+ M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* G! D: p, B$ T0 e" m, Vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. z; Z8 C2 z% A
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; I- }$ z8 M: ^) _) \the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& j# V! g# h; R( H) hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 V8 m, v0 |% E. |, E! F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 |: H% j2 K& W- R6 k* ~, [precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 ^/ m; r2 D( q. w8 N- k' uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& J2 x" W4 j4 P- V8 j7 `8 uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) u, F/ O; [! J' ~1 K6 {year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: ~+ k. k- j% F7 z# b4 N
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around% S: F' L+ e5 x- A. h) `
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 h0 K* J; K$ x# u7 O1 L' T) C2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ W1 d4 h% W# V' O. Z  m6 aEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 f" k$ P+ a5 a- Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 e- a% F/ ], X4 L# ~* \0 ]( a/ E& m) Oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ ?( m5 h3 U; b* d7 o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- V. I1 W: N, h& a. {( Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 i) o& `! q& k/ J/ pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 Q; t" [7 E0 ^3 d) f: H# Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 J7 k+ R/ R+ k$ |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ v% H7 G" d6 D1 L3 _! e' fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) e; T, M. M1 F  u* M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 s; u! v8 q6 k9 jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" \9 L9 w4 K, [& t7 Ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ K( j# X# ~' [( ^
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% i+ L, P1 O5 e. funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 e  @/ p" |3 E1 `& a
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 h* ?" u, C; O5 R% V8 x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 x* T! ?( y% n1 n: B
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 I8 n. s+ B6 I; z, Gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 p1 Y0 r3 W* ^6 s* M  _$ y+ eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 u) D1 F% Q0 ~8 N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# f4 M/ i& R& r0 ]: z% S5 g: d6 B. p
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- v8 q" N+ z& Z( e$ X/ c! H
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' _9 G! I1 {) |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
, C9 G( t( A5 p, v  J/ thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, [/ s* E/ D( ^8 Z/ N, b
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 c, [6 Y( w/ q' j
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 V. r8 a0 P8 F  sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% @: g" y+ Q  W7 r) q9 G, [
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ d2 C) _; |% L/ {6 \8 {
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: u; Q3 j1 q' a3 F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices1 t1 g2 F. \1 G" H3 v* R
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 X4 ~! {6 x( [  @  Bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. \4 ^! Y: E! F; Q; Tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 v; u5 T  l7 I& C- o! i, ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) p- r1 A$ M$ n9 L
leg down over 2009.% l2 y. N3 H! q& B; k8 f

2 Q8 o2 I3 v5 ?2 f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ `4 s1 j9 g$ X$ E, S- l: JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 8 b+ N) g1 `2 E9 v+ t- S0 G
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 B- b1 J* {8 ~9 p

; n7 K! Q9 c5 a1 w. ]# g' V) chttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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