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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
0 q% ]" U" E; F a' y0 V8 B- zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 y |: X2 U) Nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ @* u1 b) {. \* x# s: p0 r' U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 D2 m5 B* @3 j/ Y9 W: y7 a
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 o1 t; K( L$ [- z" G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 X [% l. _1 c% i' y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,+ ?2 U# i' f6 S4 w7 P3 X
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ ]; g M- J, ?' w9 R6 P+ \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! L1 Z# d3 c# s5 q! C1 n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- m5 u8 j: l: e N; y) ^8 m' M8 u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 t5 _/ m( ~+ ^3 ]. F# `
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& Q1 {# U7 I, `' |" gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 ^8 `. C/ |1 o5 v/ h- t/ x; pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 M- Y8 l6 E A" m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( f" h* d8 O6 ~& F; F$ k30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 y- j4 ]/ C, t0 X# T2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., U |$ f4 E+ ~4 f$ y; Y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- t4 m+ n) f; @. M1 Dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% Y% |% y2 Q! s1 ^4 v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' q* \+ ^; V1 W i( J) ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" ~1 s3 X/ J) f" m) S4 L# @households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 U# q0 G" g- W" b" yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) d- l2 J X+ f: O* ^0 G' G
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: ^: y( Z& h5 S; P, [) i1 M
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! J4 z- z, g+ [+ G
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! K. j& {. u: s8 a1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 n' Z- g8 F# H, V9 Msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 e/ D5 ~0 e5 w7 q' u T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 w+ S0 k9 A' T+ }$ n0 ?4 }
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; t5 h* G$ Y* L1 j) ]4 R2 gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 }' b: t9 v9 A3 m$ H
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 [" V( K, T/ t' g' L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 {: i& O9 D0 L1 N+ q9 J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 R2 _% ^9 d: X3 G/ {, umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# F/ p9 ], M( xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; ?) i- ?7 X: j! M. O0 ?0 j5 vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 i4 h7 t7 G4 g% U+ o c$ z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( a* f- j5 q/ {$ o* Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 Z: J$ M) P% Q/ D1 K
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ X% u6 J; U' s0 d& T
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 x/ [% p. i) [2 n' M$ i! U8 Krelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 b) C$ Y2 J7 x" f3 c7 K* l0 rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even& Z3 Q* |9 }1 e6 e4 s, T
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 _7 _* j; a" N4 y; ^% x
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 n) ~6 I5 Q' {0 E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& Q% N0 Z, ~3 X9 w; m6 Rresale price in February is evidence that past prices- D5 w D0 P- Y) v5 [6 \
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& e& |. P; d+ ~2 {1 Thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. T* N, C! | g: gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 m. A, J3 P* f8 rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 w8 e3 b' t0 k k$ Q3 x
leg down over 2009.
5 d! f# J* t, R: Q$ m+ M. ~! r6 ~, N! B: o0 T' ]
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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