 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta& T8 d# {0 o! v8 x' A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 x2 _0 c0 q* W5 ^4 Q L3 v) Rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: w: N$ q7 H( Z/ N$ S6 u+ J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 f. @$ u( \9 h7 J; z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 l3 |, _0 Z9 y3 _' p8 Q' w
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 s# \1 e' C" s
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# R: d! ]% I9 F; \* d; l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 N: a# `: b# O: f+ A( e: Q( ]# v
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 A+ O2 ^( w2 T9 j6 Mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 c% [/ c! F$ |
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# F2 s2 j4 c% Q7 N6 a! g
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year L- Z3 {4 R4 n, t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 M3 M' w2 [0 u# k+ Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms, Z* s! d2 j; {
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 p8 ~! p, H' G7 J- a$ _30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ ]) |3 n* ^. I' ~8 f7 Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ K& m) a8 v w6 fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: O! D* X/ \* x# I7 G/ @/ zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ e3 v! J: N+ \/ a
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 p) c; z' P, _5 M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& n" Z5 m) q" Q) [6 u( [
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; R( f& M K! g# Xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
T# D6 @4 d, J. f$ r3 Q. E6 }9 Qsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& U1 T" u$ Z8 E' d% R
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ `. a1 q! ?# Y7 p3 x
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ [# J1 Q5 Y! E) C. o" q I1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 q- J, L k W( P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 i9 B+ q" l$ P; C/ dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ A+ N' e0 o6 H$ z& btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
l( i) e' c- m$ j9 M, F8 o; ~unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ _3 W( _1 T. y1 t* p
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 i+ k# a: g K1 j0 _# l+ F8 _2 O9 Y" X
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' s5 a1 l. \: }) `3 _0 c. H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 P& }& B/ |& v& Omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 [6 K4 I" F/ \4 |% }; h
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ X6 n$ i/ J* Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' K! Z! H3 b2 G9 G# nThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* L$ T) c3 u- C% C( y# l
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ {. Y9 H# v# ]; e w% ]+ L9 G, g
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 j C: @1 D' s! v$ ^2 n# `" a' x+ ^housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 f% c+ d+ t/ x. F) W! O6 e
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 a4 |5 g3 a, z2 H, J4 Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even; G4 W1 Q% A( n, o5 \
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
$ e. I" Z" |$ ~6 y/ Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( H- C5 a6 [9 t6 X# W' C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& @$ K n3 A. Y- z: E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
- K0 M& D4 M8 Y- x& H5 K" O9 Cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 A# I! ]; \8 v* u8 C
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- {+ O& M( D5 m( m" Q% a( s7 T2 xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 O% c/ _- q3 ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: p. x2 [, w) R6 h' sleg down over 2009.
. P8 ^0 R7 e0 ^2 x8 k4 A; ?9 v& y5 Z4 z" L
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|