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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
, z* z; S1 p, C% n, d$ |( g- @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- B" s8 N1 z4 M7 E+ A. i/ D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" Q) U3 C% ?. D, ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 i5 q8 f* g6 T: G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ D# A; m( m# K3 \' ^. Z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* D! c( m: A8 o
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& }' u; N) e1 X5 [4 {4 ~' |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) B, L: T @) X8 {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& ]7 Y) g6 ]9 I7 O! F4 v, G, z) F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! p' h; ]9 V8 D, u4 Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. H* q' L$ m/ c) v3 uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! J! h' h- y( J( H1 {1 bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) I- N0 C& c4 ]4 a+ ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 T- ]; T' C& b; ` Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
~( \3 g! k5 v$ ^ A& P- F h30,000 new households will form in the province during0 Y7 {# k9 U0 C* d- [3 H7 [- X# R1 s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 ]3 u3 H# H: G+ E: ?9 t" f
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( |2 ]6 v7 c: x$ {( ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) x4 k d* c, ~" G ^ g" K5 I' M
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 z! B/ F: T+ Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 G) o- }9 t/ E8 V- k
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, S2 _8 W, c9 e/ S" o- w/ Nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. {/ ~( W; q6 G! ?sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 x9 R3 T) I7 ~& }" \; {$ v( T; I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 z8 d* G; h: |' P
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
T3 T, B6 M/ l% Z" z! n" z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' v- T0 s" R( X) Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: V; x$ w8 G. S5 d& X' H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 M: E h5 Z4 f) p
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 u* ]. t. ~8 e. H& _! E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& c- L2 r* _! C! ]# b1 I2 q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 U9 M" _) O9 J. |. L0 Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 U7 ^' D6 o$ {' i/ ~) m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ I; _* L) m$ k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* s7 Z, p# `, K+ d% R: j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled! w- ]& N0 M6 \% x; Q; u' H! L! O
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* M& T$ ?' u3 a8 t
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& m0 {6 E+ E6 w- K- E
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' x! V1 ]4 V7 M# S* p0 R7 _
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( t# j( M$ X# h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 l! r: J* G4 J5 k: R: G- k! `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 z+ [9 @/ O( A; Z2 q) h
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 z: `* f4 K& A. |, z0 W, ?, T- S
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 B6 p. u' A9 x
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# i! @, r* J- r( ]5 N' RThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 w3 P* o8 }! q* F0 s2 F: @- cresale price in February is evidence that past prices9 N/ P" \# ?8 s. m% t
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" X" c g& E) }, Y1 q8 Y# k; B, s
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 R$ K" N3 N2 P+ d4 q- @9 f% {deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' G! W2 Q, o2 y$ V! i# N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' p2 _$ `/ j: m
leg down over 2009.
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) Q0 ^4 s# i5 S: G& E2 |6 X3 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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