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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' }8 B3 d v( SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ y$ h2 k3 ~; q+ L# j& A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- `3 S9 d4 u. G" O) { L5 J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ n" X: q! ]1 Q0 H) k! \) N
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# s5 e0 X$ I! A* Z# j1 Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 z8 k8 C# f% F$ ?from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% ]6 l. O5 ^$ u$ H3 s* @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 s6 b1 x7 T0 E+ X8 L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. ]6 i1 g! i. Q: [3 r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 w+ m5 M3 q4 i- H
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& {7 G0 s& z j2 P, S
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* q. a9 X) R9 f* {# B1 W4 K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* t3 @! w9 e5 h V! {
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# P2 Z- j" N' u! q3 l2 d) Zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- |) U& q+ k$ S' t z30,000 new households will form in the province during8 T8 G# H3 K$ e ^& L8 |
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 H7 W0 [+ @: c2 p) {1 vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" M7 }1 M) W9 G2 `7 o/ Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 I, C" {+ `5 O2 v8 F; _
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' O: r# k4 W# |+ u. F+ ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' T; j" h6 O. @6 _) z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 @( U1 Q" y% S# F6 nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ ^& Y/ r/ _7 a( ?3 h
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' s& {- M' |4 [! d |* u9 _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 x* @6 l; h/ O; q, Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; }4 m" m1 F$ j- Z
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) y& |+ y, V& d( A" |2 e2 M
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 n# g5 ?$ }3 F9 q3 q2 N x4 e/ _
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 B6 s# ]3 ]- c+ ]' ?6 w. Ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# ~/ J9 w/ Z5 c) w X, i8 Kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 j$ h Y, q0 V/ p: aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* B# |) [! ]/ |' X6 f, Lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 |# I0 O" I6 Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" n" a2 K1 _9 Z5 J
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 U$ [+ d% S3 l9 E& V2 rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ V" y4 c3 \8 ^" B; x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; F+ ]( _+ H3 I% v# gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ [) x+ Y2 {6 r/ Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 q% R8 T7 Y) n7 a6 w' w+ R$ KAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 r3 @$ Z/ `- C2 ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 V. D# w8 \/ b0 B3 yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: ~$ V2 J- A* U6 F$ I6 d! t+ uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 u! W3 T" ?0 `6 _though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 k- Z8 X/ j7 O( I( `7 x# r' D/ Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ K, b s, s. [' Z5 k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. Q3 k& J" K1 B, |' H! y' Jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 a; D" d7 b2 A+ ]& { H, D* Jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 C9 ?% q! J6 Q& r& E9 Q; e2 P3 ?
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; ~$ S. d; K+ i0 v/ O0 a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" {, Y* J l, O$ {Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; O% T9 b$ h, |% r
leg down over 2009./ A- O+ Z8 H8 }- i: ?% z8 } P
/ s& P+ o- b3 Q9 x x# u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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