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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 X" }3 T$ v: Q1 H' y8 F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 M" g$ [) k8 [0 O5 V5 {+ r# q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 G0 B& v7 q1 [+ g- @are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to y0 \8 x- W3 c+ I$ E* J# X! i1 Z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 V. Q- |+ l7 f! v; Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 f( {+ X/ E0 m6 @% V' l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* Y+ G2 V) Q1 g6 a% Zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: x, W1 I; a6 v; O& I, y% _
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. G0 A" k9 Y1 Y; h# B9 [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- z( h1 ]1 ]& v: b/ S( x, Q, J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 D7 R" P- F6 m& P+ H( j
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; T5 S) u- j& T8 o% r$ v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 ?- o9 k3 p8 M7 Z! Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 t& h8 v$ i: T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 a9 c& `7 W7 j( H8 T6 ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& |4 O! r4 |4 c- H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ ~% k" Y2 y% u: T+ [5 F
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 n5 @6 I, R+ k, s! E
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, a5 L) }7 J* Q+ F' Z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# R" X o3 h8 G" whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 T- {3 i5 ]2 ?* X% d$ H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) @2 y0 a8 U& _6 l# \3 S( R
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 G" L9 _9 b# e6 r# G
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' A1 s4 k1 X2 E. H2 w9 I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! L2 B, p y5 I9 X" \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ M; _9 H; P; ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 Y" G9 `7 o* ~8 _# gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! r0 w0 E" N! `5 ?$ {0 ?. jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" E7 y: i8 B' j. @+ A* J" Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 l' u; H0 @( B5 k6 d
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. Y$ u& Y* |& n. Bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 Z/ c$ k' w1 ^: Y0 d1 j+ v
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. Z# s1 b) i( ]4 x. Jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 t3 X$ m- `1 [7 d& Q/ Z5 k7 u
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' T- o, S9 c; T2 \, eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ J- g4 Q' K6 h) j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ x( ?# W% t* _0 z3 nThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; [1 K6 j) `6 P0 A' s9 M
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 C6 v/ T, {/ w" Y4 }Although income growth was very strong, Albertan7 o5 ^6 ~2 F9 H: o$ e' C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; g, Q# u2 l; _6 G# drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 `( r( j3 _! [prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: L3 M8 A4 h' t" V" _4 Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; R. S( R8 a$ f8 Y3 Z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 l8 ` Q4 `. P! o% B: H$ g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. B, _" v* o5 |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 D+ L. A$ O. N1 `% I0 eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' ~5 _/ N* \5 \homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ G! ~3 z& X% B3 K* U: Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 i2 u- V+ A9 _' N! V
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 G5 V0 r8 s" E( _" e/ z
leg down over 2009.: k) l9 y- B' n3 [4 y
: v* Q7 u5 l/ d4 Z( Y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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