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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 \4 L0 Q* A9 d9 g4 BWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" E6 o* ~0 j# Q$ P- ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( y( Y4 H6 [" ]& G4 R
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
r; J7 |( |% j1 D( c _# B; K; A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 l1 _6 |4 w' `( F3 }
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: S' W" j& y* P% `- j+ l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 h; o: E5 I: K! s2 S& Y& Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: \$ [0 ~# }" n$ p* amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ ?# I5 @( `. @, Z/ i. z. ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' j3 ?9 |/ Y* h. a
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# f. K, B: a6 s5 C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* X# k$ g4 Z- \! s+ q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 P# I8 j/ z1 U! F& f; Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 O# ?2 Q3 J8 ~) ~0 _+ T- W% v/ ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 |' i( h$ t* h- b" S! R30,000 new households will form in the province during E! k+ n; _9 s: t" c5 D
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* c* i6 X& ]" m7 D) EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 J3 N: K& i: D: N5 Q- lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, N* M3 |( F7 J. xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. k% \, w& y( `9 v: l, phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 q0 t I, s v
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ a0 d+ M1 J& g' [3 Bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ {+ X! G" T# Z/ H' B+ X
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; c# Q$ R! Q4 V7 H# x5 e6 M1 h" zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ R3 A) R9 n9 t h+ Texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* b9 R) P' v# [ R: ?: y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( P3 Z6 _- P! ? [/ Q( K! u. z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. \# X4 h. _$ p9 z3 Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! s4 U% N1 b4 qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* H; @% |1 ]" Z+ f. p4 u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& n) r% p+ }9 z% Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; L$ E: }# W$ M: X( s* Vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 x7 c4 Y8 f4 h+ hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( f3 h! m/ g. ]. R# [6 i' ?) h) Tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& @% K0 y& W3 I3 Z' L& V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* J% F \: P9 R4 e- G1 q9 {; {
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." L" r( f! [7 y: m' x' D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 p l' N e* lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
E! e9 j5 R# ?0 B/ UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
' H/ y. ~+ _5 P. m, h. |/ ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 G5 v" ?% }! C, j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. Z, t4 x, S+ I4 g( rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ K+ d+ B$ Q7 }9 G0 m) ]$ Ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 d: W% e7 n, e" I, s
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., P- h' ~4 f/ Y! u, x3 Z& [9 \
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( a. m$ g- F3 {0 D; m% ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices) T5 k" w$ ~3 \* k4 R% y8 q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 a7 t& M% F8 k1 A8 f, Y' ^
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% C1 P$ T9 M( V$ p& P
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," f' K4 B: ]% f' u$ q6 `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% W/ [) m; J$ ?* x9 u, M+ Ileg down over 2009. Y; k% P, G" Q! [8 o6 O
& T4 G, V4 ]& Z! i+ ]7 h3 Z0 `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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