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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta0 I6 I8 e; i, J2 a% l. \
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' v S' r% ?) ?0 bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 t9 @- {' f& m! ?3 d8 Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ G9 {) W- ~3 ~7 F" g- p9 ]6 x
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 S+ [% g) S0 L( ~( D/ rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ v+ j' v4 r# p7 c0 x" ~0 \+ F7 c dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& y8 k) r# o' V% @# y
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ K1 j/ g6 n6 R& x2 r7 hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous$ ]: j% [: z# S2 t) K+ z6 a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 N0 A0 @5 j2 X% z" U; Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# L6 v, K9 J/ D( Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 A. ^, m4 G' X- I& j
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, C4 f& b$ N3 _1 K \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 l* }- S4 r7 S" o: \9 U5 q8 u
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 L. {6 b6 y4 ?0 `9 O* L30,000 new households will form in the province during
; \ F3 V/ O5 J! s2 L! I# I2 z& N2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. \* ?' C! Y bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 r/ O0 s6 ?9 c/ Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. w* j2 d7 b7 ]6 L! c) \
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
4 [( p+ n' r! {9 p& s! ^has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# c; Y5 z9 c$ P) q7 x1 k) \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 k+ n5 I, x5 L# hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( E8 |; K* n# g/ D' |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, H5 T3 _: Y2 U* `
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) ?: C0 n: [. k0 ^) F* y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ l9 ?8 m2 g* [* M5 X& B
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; Y# F1 O6 a4 @1 z0 w9 `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
g$ o0 q1 K9 ^+ Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- a: c; H9 b9 `
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 Z0 v8 \. R) n+ munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ A6 F' N4 Q7 u7 C9 ]: E' A" M3 e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! p6 a( x6 a, w7 b' h3 |/ X
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# \* x/ ~: Y. B" c5 mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ K* f7 Y' u4 |+ j& Z3 f4 Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ y0 H ]$ A7 Q# gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled* U$ x4 @4 a0 Q- t
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ E8 K3 n- ~3 |4 `- H; BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; X' M' e3 j' {4 D# u( \" ]7 V5 Yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 r) P3 T! O' s( Z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan ? C* j: I0 E2 R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 b7 o9 c+ P1 i0 Y5 q6 [' Y$ @
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, a( H$ T \2 G6 `
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
( U. c9 B" A% F/ E2 ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 i% P, g2 G+ q& F0 b: m( ]+ g" z; z, | Lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* p; y+ A3 d; l, ^& Y6 P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! i, i; A+ }7 L; w0 k
resale price in February is evidence that past prices( s/ U1 \$ J6 f+ l6 Z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 \% t" S, K$ K/ V" K! @2 J, [# }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# N- o0 A9 N4 m/ rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 p! Z6 i" i% @" O2 P9 B3 v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* z# o1 R- p- U; tleg down over 2009.: f% l3 {% B/ i0 s
n9 z+ i" s+ R. ?- Y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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