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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
& c Y; s% Y/ ^+ U. FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, c% F+ e B7 u% ^4 E+ _/ _' w
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 v2 ]" J! |+ n9 g: D. E# u3 _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ t6 l- ^; q, q' L
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, L% [# P1 q# p3 M9 c5 Zformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, Y; R0 |. @. D$ Y' `
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 I5 @- b/ K0 H: y/ Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& K: ]$ V& G, i* z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 D+ z. }8 r3 x% a" f5 O; Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( m: `6 h5 @7 s9 I% |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 n- W" i" g2 h+ L
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) B: [ t, m d1 K, N6 g' J j4 t; T) T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 K: P7 ]( g( p6 U. \' v
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ Q1 |& J6 J: U- U0 r8 l' E. Q& G! ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- X" T! V% T: B/ }5 B/ p30,000 new households will form in the province during
- r5 {+ p8 @# L! g ^6 |2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) ~+ A! v. P, v- D( TEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ S6 H f4 m3 E# \: v9 P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 j6 z; ?0 E4 A; ~; s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( Q9 r% P4 D5 R
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ S, l( }* r# g5 w# a" S( h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 F* k1 O8 O. J7 D! }during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" z/ U: @1 j/ ]5 m) F0 e' lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; N- s# b, z; `% q. W
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: E o) v! f* w, T' r
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) G6 y- Y2 n% B) y6 p
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 i: C; g! r, csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) M# y2 J* p( rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 p) i4 T9 m/ `& ]/ L
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, _& W# e7 P0 S+ j' u8 G; hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" W) Z5 S# N1 F7 P5 R Zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- n; e% c# M8 Q0 }+ h J8 ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 x3 q% E% h0 B v" E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# j, \) J9 w$ ^9 y! h2 H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% `# I3 v c0 ~2 n4 Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 w9 Q! I$ w( H
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 Z7 ]+ W' h; [" @+ b/ u, J! c2 yThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ ~7 {- e3 Z6 I6 E! Gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." ?* ^' l' e2 x' Z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 q0 i' S0 Z4 w% K- m: u. D
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 S$ U6 |2 w) X# }* Y3 t" ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 H1 t7 D9 ^. o! P5 {8 P
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 J7 A1 Z7 n4 W9 U* i X% ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ V+ K# p9 {; `: J+ [* \/ S+ e+ r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# r* `$ R h4 h* e2 P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 z& J$ F+ K% D: U3 S, c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% T& N" a/ l" U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, |/ n$ e' z5 }1 Q7 a" k8 }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* ?1 \3 n* }; @5 l4 [6 V+ t0 Tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
[/ P' U P- OAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 i1 D/ v x) i8 ^0 O
leg down over 2009.
1 I! Q( b6 `( |+ c& l% v* B2 y2 @: L$ ?; ^- @
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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