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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta# Q I* o3 d$ H" \# u
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 K) \) _+ f' C) Q/ y; I# G0 nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; n, l ~7 c! C. Nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# `# ^' V6 i% {3 ]" J& P
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' ~, g6 }8 M6 ?0 E7 R( Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# ?+ R" _1 b, V( h! U, g' ^; J
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 S( b! F: g$ D, l5 r. L! Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 \: x( z& W0 A7 F1 ]6 ]/ [6 C, O& @
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! y0 l/ w4 H2 }- @7 q# ^/ [$ rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 B( Y8 m0 A' _: K* {1 t! `& s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- N N7 z, I! b3 A$ y" T; Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) i3 l) U4 U: U5 V0 p
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 ^& n$ F. o" g$ V1 ?
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," g6 t$ `9 k0 y- S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 b B6 n& Q1 _! Z ]2 g30,000 new households will form in the province during& A! A. M8 Z M; {
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# v7 f( s( H0 W9 B: k- e' I- uEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# ~5 M8 h4 _9 l1 X& U6 U- Rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ n: z& ^' @2 I" ?
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 U2 p: _ x- ]1 d! D7 e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( `1 F* ?' x* L8 mhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" R& H% y6 x' O& l' X& Q& m; Z$ qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ W/ M* d, @9 Z, Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* v4 ]. \ s) H+ ?4 h- Fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: `* f; c0 H, N$ dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 B1 ?# W. @: l* Y, F3 A
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 \, D D$ |& T- _ M+ zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ }" _. ]2 S; |& H! L: @8 e! g
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 V6 i U' s5 c! mtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 l' d9 b% r7 D' Q1 j5 sunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% M0 y1 B2 k& hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ A! \8 C' [" C& `recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ W: Y, V* h. f/ ~- q2 R' jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ K9 M( E( q2 _5 Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 Y5 H* A3 }) Z: W7 Y" gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 r; Q2 n) x9 O6 U9 u" L
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 }8 z0 d: J8 D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- C+ Z1 ^/ y9 }, z1 f) J) G+ m4 I5 ]5 s0 Tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ W6 C3 D( g6 Y0 g% R4 q+ W
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 r/ c4 z/ t" p2 i. X- ]7 ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: U- O3 E" W8 x5 ^( J! xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( ^1 O( R. u3 ?4 b [4 D+ lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- ^5 Q+ h0 r; f
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' ]! `, }1 h k* U$ `, n- A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ q% R& J1 M9 U! H
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- u2 `6 ^3 i3 m$ q9 Xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
) s' _1 A+ m6 R- x. E& X. Kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 C4 h/ W1 p8 Q1 E
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 u& K' T% H0 I# G
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 t" y: Z. H7 ^Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" U+ A3 ?# n1 ~- ~
leg down over 2009.5 z- v; A) L$ X* r: c C2 X
% E, i* L, M8 o" k: }
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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