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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.. ~: _. \' B/ w

" M$ T; ~9 Q0 R1 cTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
  i! w' r* {7 f0 w( `
2 m  s& u, x& A" k9 {The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. - ?  P! e8 i( M% {: w

$ d) i- x& i; N( \. o"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , W% _2 d- G8 d; {0 A0 `
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# e6 N% m; \; Q) O# w' I
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.2 c9 y5 M5 |8 F; |3 G! ]: w- k
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. # q' @0 [# ]' Y" s
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 s( P( O  g' G% _

* l4 N5 V/ k7 E/ ]4 ^[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" |* F% s, c: s. _0 M 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 d; z  w; f& [; q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

) Q) C# J& M1 M$ z& u- V很多人都回学校深造去了
# E% P( z% h  \5 e! n3 c4 v) f嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, b5 ^7 u% L6 R- i# k0 \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: k) Q* ^% h7 p6 p+ b
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' X5 p' O3 c$ |# j$ sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to  ~+ h. I" b/ k: T% L# e3 F
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( ]/ J, a. H6 p% G$ f  G2 f) Sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 G0 [# g. y( a! kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 |/ y, ^1 M$ b1 i' M5 ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 J0 G6 a. u# \7 L, P. |6 r/ ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 b8 w9 L; o& xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! u  B- ^& z. g! mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' b4 `  z% |# w/ r: eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 a' ]0 _7 z% N
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: k: X* N4 x. e8 S) i3 O: Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- A- ?) S4 }7 g& m3 I% bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* b- m/ I3 d4 s
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 F7 D1 c) Y5 L8 Z- P2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ i6 H( n& G5 f3 D& P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 b7 g& a* B3 ?
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 _" H1 L1 K+ \4 g! j+ `' ^8 Aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: }$ X- W; w/ j* A; u
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" {% }" J; L, p; U. Phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# I6 x+ J2 s0 X. ~% L" [9 E
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. ~9 A4 r  U6 ^4 Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 V% E7 h( B0 `; mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& k" d4 p1 ]5 C8 _! T: Z0 ?excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 j' m: B; u2 G: F3 h2 w$ F1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ z1 e( W! G4 Y3 r& msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ i. s! ~+ ~& B7 P9 ~/ Ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( T3 O) d5 A( y, |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; S1 M* `9 `) X- I
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% N' `! R4 [: J5 l; g0 O1 S
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ t! M& o8 x, U( e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; u$ t( w- f5 H: O; aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* _0 i/ F5 c1 M+ Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* X$ G. o6 C' w' ^( o' dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 n: g8 u, E: y7 J* h- nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ S! }, s% |! A* O# u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 C% s- d) a9 N( i7 A4 Z) D0 j/ k2 `
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 n, i' V/ P* l8 Q: r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! i* ]! |  C3 l# d& \" g. Z+ _
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 y4 ^1 q! n  K3 _5 \# t
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 q0 {! {, [1 L2 p/ C! Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" P- U) f$ M  [+ z* t3 e: m# Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# f) M6 {8 g# e, ^$ {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 D5 ~9 W/ `/ U. L0 b4 k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" O7 U' I3 @) o+ ^7 b+ h% Qresale price in February is evidence that past prices- p6 N, y1 A0 N+ S" M0 Z5 d
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 d; }; M) Q0 K8 j- j1 D: l6 Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- a: t7 D- m8 o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& A2 V# W5 |6 c8 C& T. I
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  ?3 ~0 r$ o1 w, i+ [
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 `# B& {5 I; ^; bAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 9 [5 h, b# K4 m, E+ L8 y/ ?
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子4 K  z+ J; Y; U, c" ?

8 e/ T$ j5 f  K3 Y+ ?http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 b% C% n$ o6 |; t( s  I( ]% s; p
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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