ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.

TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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# z; S. e. S- u) ^+ rThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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* y: g6 c$ q) j. ~9 oNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.

TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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7 B9 Y6 C0 }- [  \TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.

. q; c7 [* e1 U$ l' |http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

3 M% W$ f* s* DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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6 T  r: H& E& }0 s$ j3 h[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 l3 p# j$ ]4 X# B/ B 再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

5 b1 R: V2 i+ Q8 h. p9 r很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. S- @* B' b( A9 e# Vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( h0 B$ q+ S( z+ Lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& E" d, n+ z! I8 J6 k- ?, @) E/ ~' R2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 ?+ K. l, i+ A8 q5 s( O( P6 ^from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% _  M' t/ d. c8 `7 F3 g: Wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 |; m$ d2 X% R3 y- l" umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, M$ `+ x) q: t, s' f  Dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, Y) p' D" M& {4 L: h' L( \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
3 b4 D/ L2 h9 Whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 }% u3 `" N" @  g8 C/ j) r2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* r) z5 Z0 Z5 `: n  V% Vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 P. t5 j0 u: r% ~$ {- s% C4 A: Mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 W: o* j. b% Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% w- g7 T8 `- Y, h$ bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# T/ w! h1 r% ?5 Z3 vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& N! L1 Y( Z8 Q" x4 {buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( h4 K$ i0 Y- R/ d( x( `% ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- v% B2 c5 U: d  j9 [unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" Z  E3 H! F: ~" |5 Xresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ d$ L& E% t2 J+ e9 Zmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 K5 }9 h; P! y  u, `, l4 Urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
  _% A0 `. d5 i6 ]5 dThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 {0 C3 U$ f: |5 l$ F1 }' U& Y/ f  Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. T6 `, j6 c' [- [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 N# \) U. N; y9 p& kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' D1 D) i2 l( ?5 H$ U6 Eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 x4 g/ E$ @9 d$ Edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

4 Z) d* A0 U  P9 X- S0 D8 ^% p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 L+ v2 t; H) o, N1 l, zAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

" D# t; h- }% j+ {5 ^! i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
/ }! q1 ^0 E( j# E0 v, a8 q翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing