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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta! p7 G, h, K6 A" E$ X/ J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 } x2 Z2 n( R; Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' _) h4 Y s0 Jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, j; _% V9 g, f5 W# R* z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 c+ V! T* x7 t3 e4 G1 S
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. g5 W7 X$ T k l4 y, k& e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," A) j/ m1 z9 ]- W' j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' r" {; j! K4 l$ G1 }6 M; R) lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 C4 Q* @) q3 F! O# p4 T3 M3 c
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 h; i' F2 J6 s# B8 Pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, F& g ~ l* ]9 }; E' Oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% y1 W$ F" h$ k* M) Xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 C6 j8 [- S' L
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. }4 Q! r& R/ R
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 q* |0 ~6 m& @: }
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 j: g9 G' n% u& A2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# [# C# ~" ]; h- V& L9 a! X9 t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- S7 @, y0 S ~1 P! f7 yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 n* E- _4 ?* I& u0 j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ H0 F$ `9 S! H3 y- l; ?has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% ?, E* t4 _( w$ c. c
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ m Q3 D" N4 @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( a5 W4 y! P/ l: k) O# M
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# |9 Y) J- z( P) S# Aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ }8 L% c0 b6 j0 P8 P3 X
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% M2 q7 X' H) I* V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ R. N) b) {' y3 X7 ` r" N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ i1 {% s; y: e# ^( A# m3 abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ |! r$ k9 t% `. [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 v! V6 m2 k3 ]; S1 O5 f! zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 K, T4 C4 @, C4 ~! {* Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- M6 M$ [5 j! K! V' W; S2 zrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! s1 r2 l l$ [9 t; G
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ z4 a1 n" ?6 v; J" h4 j4 a0 s7 l+ H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. v3 O8 m2 K3 K/ A0 f
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ v+ L6 c! P* V( ` qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 \1 K1 G U8 |; e; v- \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 H! L/ _! _3 q2 t/ k2 I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ y& ~! x8 t; g! C8 U$ ]$ CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! V7 B/ d. ?( z6 H) y9 l: b: z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( u) ~8 P4 x5 a, Y9 c
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 m. R: S5 E" \ W# D2 F/ l% f
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: V s) Q6 O. E% a
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! X8 D* @) ]+ N, M9 L
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 G' G6 {: ]" m% Y+ ~. Q% y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* F5 t: G4 M1 Y* B) Z- ]1 |) n5 ^' ?
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
) x. ^, t' ]8 b. N5 z; B& yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ P. U8 W. P2 j' r ^8 thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. Z# I& R! a& ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 j( y! d8 k5 Y* I9 s4 EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: S" J, x9 t+ C* }leg down over 2009.
% `' P* i# H2 \! J8 [7 ^. P3 P
4 j7 n" B& q/ K1 ~( l) @+ l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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