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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta' |: \9 ?- m- B- H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 }0 P' J/ R: d& ^, B, Y* Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 F# F! _3 @% y$ f/ Sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, e" g+ {- j% X, q6 G( V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: t: @5 X2 w$ _6 x( g
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ g* ^9 s* U8 s% `* s; B
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- Y( }; ?0 b( l& g3 Zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 f% v, D+ h7 P& {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& [/ t" Z; t2 W" g: s# Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; V8 ?9 M) T2 Z! D/ m0 eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 q4 m' E( V. I
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 D6 I2 b0 A8 T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# w6 g' y8 g$ [( h0 ?* Cyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 g( ^3 ?' H- b
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 h- m& A+ L2 S5 w" m7 f) u
30,000 new households will form in the province during! J( d' }) b* m w# ~# k+ {! P
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# O4 @0 x1 G3 ?5 A6 dEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 {* |) {8 S! {( Y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 [- }3 _7 \0 Q8 T0 ^during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 r. g% D) G8 w/ S e! r) p4 t
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ A, B: H0 M1 }* ~* c$ H7 b8 shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* G; u( _6 ^2 w. k6 } P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 A4 k0 Z! d8 c' }- D% v
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: s+ p$ F# ^: u& ?9 i# u
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 H- F8 z2 j& M' `; x- y3 Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 U, e- g0 F6 b: W" b; [6 t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 i8 C8 l% C- l. E& hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: }, C. ]8 r2 A3 p$ h& R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 [% _6 s( `# B. }
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 M# J% C$ _6 ^
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& O9 H8 u- R3 yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: V! x# e; {- }7 g" Q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 p7 B8 P9 i7 l3 s5 U. gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 m& }. l8 r: [% B
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 K: i) z$ q4 W- U3 P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 E( |' B0 P6 {. V) K' q1 s7 w. |) N8 J
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 U- M( F! ?- n% [2 A9 R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 Z" X3 @9 c# f5 _. V, ?% o
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' s) U: O3 _6 e
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
G a }% f F! G* Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) y& t2 |; y5 P+ trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% |* Y/ J" O6 i Q3 I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! n/ S3 b, J- O$ Y/ Vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! e( r8 C* X0 I* pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ ^- M: F4 p6 e! A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, m: Y9 a$ Y; Presale price in February is evidence that past prices! h; x: S2 Z# [1 z3 k
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' k& `9 ~, T' Ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: P7 d# F; C/ Z/ g8 Q8 Udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; T0 ~% |9 \2 ?9 GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 h, R/ P5 |7 h: z' n- K! tleg down over 2009.
- E* l$ k0 ]7 }7 U, u" T0 M- z
4 X# s$ v7 l: S- b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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