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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.8 y3 R3 L& N  S% X( [
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. - ^# P* t0 I8 V- t+ E1 E/ g

" K& G" p, o& T! M) q3 fThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' h, d7 i1 I) z( e* f8 W- H; Y0 C
& w+ }) ?1 m0 \% ~, O  O
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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5 ?. ?2 Q9 `/ UTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.& k# M7 v; l- W% B/ C8 M: f
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. + h& T8 Y. W4 M4 B0 v6 t8 Y

  W9 p$ i7 _0 m/ H+ xTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% |" A: T% c- H! |0 ~1 q
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & q7 V2 U; X, Y/ S( a

: m) k8 c+ d0 D4 @+ D* u) B7 s& Fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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( K7 V; D5 J, cTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,4 U1 Q( a$ c& n2 J

- K! n5 `1 }, w" ?' e[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" h1 ^+ S  Q  u( [5 u! A% x/ r5 |# a 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
8 B; n4 V8 G- j! y# y( e跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( [" `5 |( \# |- L) C# e很多人都回学校深造去了
8 m$ [# E$ p! z8 c$ N/ B5 ]5 X嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta" K: ^0 X# ]; b/ u; {4 h: p
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. N) s; M4 L, l9 [# rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" r- b9 H' N1 [) C/ d  q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, o4 t9 {* ^" n0 a. @2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* A& p1 ]) ^/ @9 ?
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 @1 Y9 [) a, \, E. O: x; U" f
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 x0 b. Q1 z" Q/ L, T# Mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; H/ ~1 e- y; {4 w. P& i% [
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( f! b6 K" ?, o* \9 {1 I. ?6 j' w& Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 @* j; Q# F$ T
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# ]* L  B6 O! d- e" C4 L, G% a2 tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ l' z0 ^9 U. E! q/ K, j. t, S* D
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 k+ q7 d2 h# [
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
& l# h  Z( e& i% g' q+ \( lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- X$ w9 ]/ }0 e+ Z
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( f; f$ m( J# v5 s3 h% @# g0 Z3 q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 B  r1 ~% J% g$ f' s( HEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# S" w% a: Q4 }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, k- `4 q  T7 j% b6 W6 G$ ]during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ A( W% C. e0 U$ P: P$ c1 a) l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ Q1 _; \5 q6 Khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: J; V) B( X3 `5 q
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' B' M5 i$ f- q" e
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 Z$ O9 H& L* y3 f5 Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) I* \1 p3 H4 G4 s! j7 Gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# O6 E2 o2 h+ H/ s% T5 Q5 b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% g- K& K! j1 |- f% B8 }" g' ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) ~0 n1 @3 H" o, ]; u5 R; Gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- k/ G" p2 p9 b
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in. C) i8 y! h; s6 ]7 s* d3 u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( \, t  R, ~. H% y( p/ vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) ]) B5 ~! [1 O* A5 l
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 B; u& D* F" S& P# g- Vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. _6 S: P- r6 X- O* z1 o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' }6 k) L) e# E" {+ Q! q+ Hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' V& j& c; S2 w' h+ e) v2 z/ |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 ~6 s: ~0 [/ M8 P9 N% M
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- o1 u3 T8 M. C$ M
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 A' }& d" T  w  ~- r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% r' A- w3 q! {7 b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 C2 q; I) x% t8 V/ z1 @+ R' Y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 p2 `6 P7 \7 A' a' W$ x
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 H7 Z0 r2 J( @  Pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 w( t4 P' Y! y5 D8 n& {2 f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) ^& P' A6 _7 E. c7 x/ G; R
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 _" x" o! p3 I3 Y4 O( H- j
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% b0 d) F  ?  M% P" [& H
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 d' M4 V( C  rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 V, I3 m, I5 k* S1 Q# I/ @0 zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 C2 L7 u+ f: F6 p% R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( y1 S5 C5 A9 C. h$ F' e6 {: xleg down over 2009.
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$ \7 c9 L# O8 i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ {9 E  o6 Y! |/ AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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) n1 q( R& ]4 Y# {& I' z; {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% g; w3 g5 s& Y: {翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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* j+ B8 x! S! A6 ~, E( `http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments6 y$ `( H4 v, s3 l" d
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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