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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) E( H* V' }. q- Y% b2 w8 j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; ]3 s2 s; [/ ^% wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 l1 h/ ^5 q) m4 }are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( N! u! Q) X# A0 D2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
F! s/ d' m5 ^formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 N( ^# i( w+ V: M! K8 E' Q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. M- J. v* |4 y' H. ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 d1 S: u" L/ c5 Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( h' e* T \' S9 D! s Qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 A) B3 i' C. F8 H/ @! ]5 g
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( C; z# B( |; sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: B& V% I9 K! } |; [5 _2 `: g
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- i) m& |5 u$ @8 I# p, d0 D: n; Wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 A" H; o- n( W# m" h! z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# z( R/ V9 G8 Q5 d3 v30,000 new households will form in the province during( c5 J3 D0 J! o2 M* l7 J: o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 t1 o( @8 [% J6 P) uEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 S" q( e `% H) B" j. U
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% j, A- ?: `' N$ C1 f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 A, \0 n) L& Z shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# v0 X$ X5 l [$ a" P( R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 l1 {! |# h5 q) y, Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ A) D3 \+ H# Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* R+ I9 A5 _) t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 W2 t3 g" a; ^: w1 F0 G7 z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ l# {; X$ L2 w5 U4 |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" _) } C. T% j+ U, Y6 ?: |2 o1 {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 x8 @! n" o. ~0 K$ f( d$ j) p Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, N5 G4 ~1 P; E! g7 s5 F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 ~1 l3 R7 c6 w! R, N, x Nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) p! s- `! _" V3 `, f, F* Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' M9 m6 h; H& l e" y, \
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# Q2 T' N) }- D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* P& K6 ~4 }; u/ Q" h1 ?/ D8 J
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 Q1 y2 u- F" N Q0 }9 h+ p$ a$ X! Jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 A; X( N0 Y. c* y m0 `# orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 V7 j' N% h1 P) @
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
m" O8 R* ^# |" r4 g0 [3 nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' h* m/ O" Q1 Y- D/ VAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: g& Q7 ?( g. S+ O6 ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ O! |! I6 Z) _- s3 p
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 B: q- V" d3 x& }# g7 A8 T# ~prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 g6 \" V5 K1 v, @. Wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 a5 y: L, _& C2 ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ X: F9 a# M$ u! z' w, }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, _" a) ~% s% z# G, Presale price in February is evidence that past prices
& l% s I0 X; i. z+ F+ P$ ]exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ P+ l& a6 C1 n0 ~) N& @# ]homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 w4 A4 p( m! G5 @, H8 i" X2 V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. B3 y' d/ p8 Z$ \. {3 b1 ]# KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 b8 ]8 J, @) H$ j' w. D
leg down over 2009.! ?5 I) Q. p" `/ H4 f7 k" }
- @, Q8 Q1 \1 M; W# c" d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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