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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
' H' X) V4 A" O" K
$ C. T) a' \1 o# XTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ' m; P0 S! I6 z1 L
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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1 V5 ~7 j% a! X& A! w"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 F* i& K8 V% J' v# F; ]: ]

6 @/ E  g+ P9 D% f( rNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% t: p/ p  t% e7 Z8 e, M% b1 y! o4 ?
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( |3 @- O% ^9 m0 x"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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; P1 f2 ]" ^9 K% _Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 4 `: H# G0 D" Q  x$ X5 F

; q3 [" s3 r* b  u! ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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8 z% W: ^' s! |. @2 HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,9 [( P; o5 y. N; L$ X. q) }

' e" r6 @$ T; d) ]1 {$ D[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。& a# L9 T  q& ^. E9 ^5 {' i
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。$ w. e  t  C$ {# H2 ~
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 S3 N+ l$ K) p5 ?  P5 F
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

6 Y7 U! m: K) n" `) G) n* O很多人都回学校深造去了
; i$ f. u* I7 ~9 ~8 ?嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& X0 z% r4 q- `5 A! w$ O0 T% T
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ K- }7 j$ k  T2 l3 d7 p* U: Sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' e: B4 q  w, N$ H* q6 A! a7 Z0 W
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( _- i& n6 D1 {+ J; O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 w- _/ v) [/ E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ z6 _6 `) [/ \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* |+ t- ~" R, |. ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; I: Z* c1 r7 h1 I7 `" L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous# U  j+ U. s; F0 G4 F0 |9 r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 D' t2 ^+ [9 l$ w9 q6 \
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 z$ V$ C: _7 ?! U3 [' @6 Q# Kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 K8 v+ \7 n! Q, e: N
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 c6 I  I5 H. |2 D
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) K3 I0 I) J5 P8 v( f! l' D+ ?: j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  ^1 K: O" t! j7 z  L  z2 |# C& Y
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 H/ ~6 c& x: {7 Y6 m' ^4 }9 N) g2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 s! Y! B* s6 |. ~3 f0 ~
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
  d0 ~3 i4 f/ S; h) m2 @4 dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 n, g6 `" t' Z8 P5 j- O5 U, }) ~" D  Z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& z, U0 X* B* J0 W* ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; V, u! o$ d. b7 r- ]4 r
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, c' m+ a0 d9 r1 l
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 T- F+ f% E* A% X+ b
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 G* w0 h6 j2 V# M
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 c' P) I( z* y% jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 R8 i" J0 S: |, s6 U, i
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ l& i. p( N! I* T  usales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ g% b- ^: F9 e! w$ \
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 P9 p) r& I% J
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 k9 r  |# c7 t  d9 G) @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ Y7 X, Q& U$ n% }9 u; K. yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ X1 q; o1 j/ x+ @$ z2 v$ m% Brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ q1 C9 m6 U6 E2 a5 kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 Q  {" x8 d4 O* U  V# d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 f0 N1 W% ^4 z- B/ ?of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* |: f3 R. x1 Z( z( |" e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& J- x/ Z% ?& f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 q' X# }. q1 {4 R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ s' O/ i; D& D* K, B6 C% D
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
# S, P' h1 z! W$ Y& nhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; q1 z" A8 D. }2 A$ S4 ~1 z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! ?& `" W" Y- P# h  l6 ?
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 ~' Z, a, U2 o9 n
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners  i& x. K% C3 b- }' F0 h+ y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 h0 g, s' V* @% |( e
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# s5 g+ N1 B  E! }2 Y% l) f
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
" i2 F7 ~5 F2 P7 k: eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. ^$ t8 i6 `* L' T! K9 {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’  J3 _6 I1 ^) H' p; @
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ K" I( U/ E" L( _" kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 u# ?% H) Y: Y( D- q% \# B$ \
leg down over 2009.% j$ ?$ j) ^' i" q4 U2 T  ]
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 V( f1 J, @& S' T4 G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 }7 |6 g1 N* J5 P6 [
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子, |  @# j) I6 Z- x9 I% m$ w) D

/ n1 a$ L% g' ~; q" ]) H% x6 l% Bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
  |: [( b  i6 K& q3 @8 n! z& c9 J) H) _9 _5 h
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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