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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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- j6 U1 C& G+ K  W! y1 [" wTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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# _" x% U7 g5 p) V! c4 A  kThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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. N* \# P, P0 m; r) p"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   ]6 ]! q7 w6 o- i* a/ [2 O
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; D, [/ V0 D, D' m; C0 c. `+ x  [

6 o7 W. }. e% m7 j3 r, FTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 W8 C; f8 b: ?7 h* Q+ V, m- r

2 w7 c, |3 d, I' ~# q5 ]TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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; c, N' ?/ s3 _/ \+ p: C. qTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,7 S1 R( w4 V, G( M! _" ^; f- ?
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。2 v, C- Q2 J8 ?' x
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( n2 j9 \+ u' z, P

  w; S! g4 J; n7 G  {8 e" L0 y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 u8 f; f  u4 B/ W3 m* t8 S0 K- z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

0 O4 a: e9 Y3 ?4 W! v8 s$ u9 t很多人都回学校深造去了
) C9 Y. x( r' v# {嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 R9 U& Y/ K( H3 }6 T) W/ E
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  |9 n- G7 [1 q; p% bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* K0 q% U; k; f( O7 O/ i% j
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 N( S' o" {. i0 G, J4 [% q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 D5 @2 s& o3 E' u+ }+ I. k
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ D3 u8 G. L; B5 k2 b; Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* r- m/ d9 N' i; O0 b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ [0 d% a2 D1 C1 T- umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% |# @0 k0 s! X2 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' k( e; o6 b( C8 ~( [* uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& ^$ T% J3 v3 m, Y9 Nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, W3 }" Y- o( a$ K: y% V. G6 vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ E+ G* b# ^( W/ q5 B# ]1 Z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ H& Z0 z; ]/ {$ S% R& yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, {- P3 M. L% [8 Y; n) G1 m
30,000 new households will form in the province during# N, \/ s7 a9 h- i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ I0 X& n) {; a; E+ `Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% j% M  B" p" \$ Q0 y  u  P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 o; H! ~$ X% u6 |7 c
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# ^; H: g1 i+ H& }) e, R: Thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 z1 ^4 {  n0 A" Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) F+ n. r# k) _! d# Dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ M) A1 d0 g. w! D% P# n- osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 N7 t1 b; f: {8 L) Z/ G4 n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' o7 u1 l, x7 w0 cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' a- ?( r2 v, V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# F9 p9 H" \8 C% {& R1 u8 Q5 w: a4 U; x8 G& \
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ h0 r3 n' H9 C: T! e) s. Zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 y$ N# E+ ?* C# F5 N0 P& G$ _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( N2 R* J9 Z. G6 ^# u5 o! ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" X3 D. \/ d% [. z+ Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" L3 [; ]# c* a6 m8 ^
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# E- X+ }1 F* l  P4 ^2 Q6 X
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. q$ h  j. y, z, {% O) j! Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories  S2 t9 ^& K/ D" F' P; L2 d
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. k# r9 {* {9 @* z$ m' h2 P% Z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 T, K* O, z" a  U  H* AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- f3 G6 I. `* E/ }  u5 mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- X8 C  Y/ `; X
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ @( o* g% \! ?$ X9 xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& A: v. A  f( u% _; N
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 x+ w8 [. E8 G3 [# m3 l- ~prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 k3 [6 ~% _  u: ?2 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. a1 Y1 @+ ]8 J% zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ V3 H7 t, j6 p
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! ^" H$ v" x8 @' m* W4 W/ r$ sresale price in February is evidence that past prices/ X. p0 Q+ ~1 |1 M4 ~
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; d& |# b3 R5 Y! Q+ r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. t2 a3 t3 B. H/ A% N$ H7 K% a9 C
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* f0 k4 I% {6 r8 P2 G6 b% |
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%& g: r# a0 _% G* P
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ A6 y' Z# r2 Q6 i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
! ]/ t3 `0 {4 b, L. C1 x) ?6 P; f% q翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 }* P( R0 t4 _8 p3 E! Y/ w% F3 G3 p

& }& l1 S- r& j4 \/ z* V9 ~http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! d  z3 ~5 i1 J

; B) O* H8 t# R1 Q4 \3 D[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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