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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.& R# z# \! p/ {" U9 A, u! E+ k

6 @, J1 y7 v, I0 |" U2 w; u: kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
. e- m% e$ ?' E% A5 X' }* Y. G
" t9 ^. A( h) l  z/ [( M' X0 r/ A7 K% f" uThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   n' O  |3 M# X: L" N/ z7 {# Y* _

1 p1 @; D8 i5 T0 x"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ! E5 T! m+ ]& q0 H1 t

0 |" B3 R" n/ j; T1 rNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.0 \3 T4 M" U1 D2 Z% Y3 Q! x- H

! K/ J4 L8 I' a7 `7 G6 cTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
, K2 Z$ s4 n8 h
% E1 Y6 b) i6 @1 c5 M"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , O& [* T) f% n  N. h

% f5 G8 M7 U3 n) `, Z' RTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.  C9 @! c( B& T4 o  l
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; z% i: Y6 P: [* V: ?
( _* v/ `( J5 |8 S
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

$ E' O& T/ s3 S! B3 y
; i! i4 Y6 V2 QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
4 O1 {- z% g% Z
; E$ f8 V' g; ], F. e[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。4 q9 O  c8 d+ t1 Z# z
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 s/ o3 S3 l" J" e) k

6 S& M  _: q7 w$ k[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
& [9 |8 [  w- w4 B" A( _跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 U7 y8 P4 X+ ~/ V很多人都回学校深造去了2 u# @: j# \! I8 J0 ]  a" r
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
% z7 G, |: S% o9 |. SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 L2 U& S- |" z9 x4 e: t4 R8 q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& q2 u. d0 @" Q6 X) }are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 s; H# s0 N! Z3 l4 {: ~0 ]$ k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: L1 |  w7 {3 h/ M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 I' z- a  O! a1 s* c  l; ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 d; ^& j/ d9 u9 K  u! j, U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 n6 d# t, q0 L- S  Y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# a4 [$ U- t+ J- E0 Q8 J# ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% H% m3 j$ [/ ~" Uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. _" b. N0 h8 Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, {' }5 ^/ J+ b( q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- B1 G7 c4 |! X, f% V( Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 \8 ~" H& B. |) h* Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* Q! q4 w5 V1 D+ _
30,000 new households will form in the province during( ^: L' @/ \2 @2 e, Y3 L$ J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 P7 }% }9 Z+ M. ~
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# b1 ?) m, E0 C) ~5 T
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! k) r% \4 `; M+ j  B7 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- l8 H) b+ q7 [% D( \$ q8 g% ]1 S  S, d1 e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 v' ~6 s' N. k2 E% v. R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 y, f& x4 ~. V3 L+ D1 Q
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 N( H3 V. J' Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ P! w% f* E* V; Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) V+ h2 Z4 e  F( texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 k. x* T, i% k: u: F0 [7 f/ e7 O
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 |6 y/ Q% Y9 r, a8 o4 b
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ j) O1 Q7 k( Q: B2 fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 U) w; z# m/ D9 ]* m; I3 r' w! g4 Ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 E( t/ \( f; l) {8 r# z' X* U& Cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 ?5 J: Y; q0 h2 t- m2 y/ a6 E
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" I8 r2 F3 w+ Q2 C3 \4 y# N  h2 jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% w5 i/ F  N- G( ?resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, _" g4 w1 d4 D$ u% w( k9 L% kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 S0 w' W3 [: W' R, }( hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( v8 F! l0 l. j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) z* A- i* h6 |6 S
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! K7 K: f' H  p  C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 f$ r( s2 Z0 L  m( E' i
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- ?$ A% M7 Q/ R  [1 e: a/ Thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ r4 s/ o) k# c/ s3 _1 orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 m9 \! M9 ~& s' e
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ `* a8 |  \( k% I% }2 ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. w7 r: G/ a+ V/ O) b
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ c2 u/ m! H9 J6 g3 W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" N6 o- L7 c3 L) N% w( vresale price in February is evidence that past prices# `/ ~3 x0 k% \2 Y( q+ {
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ z$ A0 ^0 N! Phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 ?$ j* U' L  L; d  fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& a8 Z/ j+ H$ y; V8 r6 G$ dAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ L; _4 c: p. z: }# d$ r0 qleg down over 2009.
0 @! _% h4 M, s& S
7 N' [+ {! Z$ t7 [, U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 D8 t! _( G' |' e% k# ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

) u3 p8 }, a. _3 k0 I
% d' I+ z/ d, v2 V& `" S' h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ I9 @3 F8 T" i6 b/ L翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* Q/ Z: i9 A0 l/ [& R% ~1 G( [/ I

. o# w2 P1 u  n, }) |; \- u6 V( `http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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# V) l$ \5 {3 _0 X, G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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