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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
/ |" B1 N# U# P+ q9 ~- V
& O* [$ p1 Q0 I: ~0 aTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
  H) K% [' h1 L/ V  N, ~5 x: ?
: j/ O, [5 M( G3 P$ U7 HThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
" E8 F# @. r  x' \) q- j& u
" g9 G* M; H6 o2 o% l- X"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 Y* d9 I% `) j# x' z7 h
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
1 E. L5 H2 X' A) h$ N* f" J
, L, ^, e8 i, [) L% B& T, Q"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , r; ]6 P9 @# ~1 {- l2 t2 b

$ ]/ d6 h. C! ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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1 i- _* {. i9 ]. q. ^" c8 CMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - Z$ e4 t+ G  t  s$ K; ]5 ?3 o
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

7 ]. R( ~- R% N, G1 \/ l1 k' ^. G$ ]8 k, K8 ]3 a& o/ Z
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,$ A2 f) g4 u  C+ d' E3 f
% e4 ?+ c: `# O9 e$ }, F1 u( \
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
3 S- L( I: m( P$ E; Z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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) {9 x. e6 r0 w1 ~3 Q3 M- u6 `[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  k' y( D7 n3 L" v! l, j跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ E$ \% h/ }1 m# u4 H% x1 s9 m6 G: T很多人都回学校深造去了. s; c- I2 s+ F; |6 S# c; v9 `
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" [: h: y$ _! Q& G1 d- b) gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 c) X: E) _  _' y' t/ \
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! W7 W7 c8 {+ w4 K5 ^8 f! q( s: uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& H; m  u; u5 S4 E4 p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ M( x4 {/ Q& X+ O0 C4 H5 Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! {  p" S; E  r- N! J1 D
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 F* x' C/ V* n1 q% jthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 x, d) t0 n2 D+ {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# M3 K- r6 |- a' V7 J4 f, i* apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% r5 Y5 U! ?+ ~' [/ fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ F5 `; h! o5 ]1 j: v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ x, K4 L( w9 Q8 X: [/ }8 V1 fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  W: d' r5 g* G! F  V
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, X) I7 ^* t- m# ]1 M, ~/ E
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: {. H0 k0 u/ {# i
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 ]) m# K0 t6 X' T2 o- a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! }2 ]( g3 K, u& S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 [, T, E7 {$ j& b$ h* s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) E0 ^8 {4 N9 Fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( d  I+ W7 ^% l2 j% J
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% W3 L# ]6 a: _. r  {
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ e4 ]& O9 a( Q/ D( o, D: F
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. M+ x# X+ ?& ~2 t$ w$ ]( ~/ w$ i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! f2 D. q# o8 y) [3 ]! `- m
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& Z; T1 a; [2 E- K7 X! z5 }2 E
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 z% r; v. x. L5 _6 _5 n  T0 s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) U) G; V- D6 H9 i
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& i; \$ r% \* nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 p/ `7 f; }: J* [  s
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ S. a$ ^+ |' v# J9 ?; N( b
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 E! O! Z( U' R# x3 ^
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& H- x$ U0 O4 y7 p- o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& b  ?1 S8 u0 Q9 o; d8 e+ Y+ f8 q+ v5 F3 P
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# E$ \9 w2 w1 x+ c+ d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 a; B  H9 D/ A. Q9 {+ t
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; q5 R5 e# O+ ?- c3 P' g, `5 vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 }2 k3 y- R( k# _+ D# T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: V% i2 [9 G8 ^3 w- G, A
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 o: e) N- ^+ I+ S3 X9 g; A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ S1 F$ w( i+ F! G1 yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 e! o. l* y2 V2 v: s' N; z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, h( Y; r8 a; S1 U) ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ P) F6 t0 M" n  t$ n8 N8 G# c$ a0 Gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 A) P: Y# |+ _" W/ l/ Lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% z9 [" Z6 H) ]- y$ }6 z2 B3 V  n) M& vThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: [4 Q' n6 C- W. @. J6 |resale price in February is evidence that past prices) v! v. j$ k2 s, |9 a6 F* m
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  w3 a: q7 [9 Q4 k5 b8 Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 W( v7 c* {6 }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* d9 ~* l1 q2 t+ e/ g  ]Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) y) I% o$ f! U$ C( A3 F! Oleg down over 2009.: G$ W  D( s% b" H- I
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 f, ^, U% k# A% E8 w2 \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 Q+ S- O2 h: I. b/ i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 u( C2 S3 @( G) \7 [  q
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; S: F5 ~% }- k# w! N

% \9 W, _+ I: G' {1 ~& A& _$ Phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( `' [% \: H" q+ @

  F, r' g* O" _- \" A: ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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