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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
7 Y% W9 g: W' G" l" p% S; {$ E9 @3 y) D- Q% G4 X: h
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
/ J5 `( U# U+ r3 T& m  A# T
8 L/ {% R' G1 Y0 v3 U- M6 C/ r"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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7 C! J- f5 m$ q4 U3 hTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.0 k; t. \3 I( L1 |) l0 E5 d) f. I
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.6 p0 M$ t7 \3 Y6 y5 d
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 g/ q& w$ ~2 |; F3 ~8 p

+ w7 Q" O+ D0 p9 C* Rhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
$ {' t* Y1 A' o! j8 C/ e

: @; S/ c: O4 V% J  cTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: w9 @6 S9 |# j+ m6 |" N/ O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。0 k) M$ I0 v) E

8 m) E! `4 s9 U9 i[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
6 C3 w6 z) A" t! k9 _4 a! u跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

6 v# Y0 ?* ~7 u) d6 u1 X很多人都回学校深造去了6 N1 N  N- o! r: z8 x. A, K/ D
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( ~# _5 `9 [4 o1 Q( O, N
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# }% K& m% ^- M
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ p, b; [. I2 y! j1 Z' V3 v" u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ z0 h; r+ ?( C% U1 r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 Z3 I9 y0 m5 Y3 g" C! i7 M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
3 R& K7 @' \3 o, Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! A" q3 d3 i0 ~the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ v' d. Y( }: d. N# N8 xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' m3 V* y7 l* H$ s' z+ Rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- p7 G) J/ Q# k) u, a7 R$ k' yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 ^4 n5 Z! s) O' pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. p9 B' u! P2 R" g; C/ S2 Wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! u$ U& A# Z& N5 V' @year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; ^$ t$ S" w9 T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 q2 ]& r; ?7 O8 b; }30,000 new households will form in the province during* r) ?8 w. \' C
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year." N. K( W/ o# ]1 Y( S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. c! u+ |/ K% ?; ^! r' Yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- D. x4 p. M7 s" g) j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! i7 L3 H1 Z- v$ i% [9 D  Thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" O" o1 ^  |& G; l" g. U9 Z4 yhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ r8 g$ h0 o& |- e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 M: t& _% x, V5 B9 G5 nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# A% @  M$ m9 g# S$ l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ N! V# d! X1 P$ v/ k- _0 |$ U
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ |2 N% m& H" ?  M$ \: M+ ^; o
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 b" z$ J6 A; a: j7 R" `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: r5 E/ G2 d( U' y" p) Q  t
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 a3 V8 L6 v, J; J- y8 S) otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 S. N( ]% \5 X  vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 P( r! ?1 [! [4 Q1 Q( _3 Nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 j8 ~4 @2 L7 x6 V
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! ?0 L# H3 b' p7 W( l/ I4 f4 Y3 kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, K7 J7 @- w0 u/ s4 h# Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 o' o. m: x: B" Q9 F8 W4 t
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  d- a& C, Q5 h- I0 k& Q: Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 {; S) j7 G7 d/ S1 B2 y* aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 J( b8 f/ n' K. Z. |& G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& u0 z1 s+ T' [2 f$ n1 ]/ p
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan  d: ^# P) ^0 n  _/ }( S+ @1 `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! l6 r: s7 D* c5 V
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 X# O. g/ R1 |( Z* a$ ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% z( @# V& l% P9 c' i* ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: ~) Y6 s: O1 w/ J& u3 F* V9 fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: Q; E) o+ X3 c7 m5 BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. P) x. t, b5 e% K# [" U
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 z( d3 k) C4 r" W0 B8 t4 mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' y0 T, t& c- ~+ {/ R) V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( b. S5 ~. ]2 v4 B
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 G( d  j1 f; d' F# F; EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 Q2 I0 Q0 o6 @% c: @! q$ ~
leg down over 2009.3 u5 S" [6 n$ p& ?
) Y6 `4 g9 _1 }* Q$ a, `* g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# I$ |: N( p, T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 B3 P9 p( `: Z5 f( F3 X( B, c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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4 R: [- \" M' H5 j5 W# E& ^; |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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