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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 J% D# I5 D, h( w- k, G2 \9 ?! I
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. $ G3 p% ]6 O4 i6 G

6 r& _5 U  Y* c' M( i. `"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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# a1 q! |* l9 i5 b) p7 z' wNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. c3 O) d5 d! @8 w) I

% Q, ?& ~# }5 O$ T- a6 lTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.. ]$ x' E  X/ X5 Y

5 @, U. Q, J* b0 M1 ~- L"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- [7 [* Q5 C1 ]* R  S9 g0 sMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & [; B4 S" D# i# |

) U- p2 g' }' I6 G1 T5 W$ l& [0 [http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ I  G: o8 ]4 _: C1 F7 W9 e% B 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。" E& Y& u4 J0 G$ ?) m1 n# H
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + |* t0 `! d1 Q2 V
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

$ E9 d7 c- C, z4 k3 {很多人都回学校深造去了9 _: A, Y: c3 e. O, D
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
% \" ^' K# |" e  ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 p6 }9 }) \# Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ e0 W' t4 e, @8 Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, k0 E7 o, k7 l- _; z2 ^; Y8 Y' G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 U: B5 O) j! W5 m5 w) t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  u/ w3 v+ ~7 d/ I9 _) p, ~
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. k* ]6 E! |( V) a/ I  L1 lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, ^& k! q  M4 r- j: L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous" t/ E7 o8 l6 A( H% P% P  w* @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) \+ L  j! n5 A$ u. d
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- l  @" a8 b, P: D- X% g' s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 b/ r. H. e2 ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' l2 [& j" W" H- e" A) Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; ?7 h/ M, S9 Zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ ]1 G# O' x5 H/ {6 o3 ]- m+ P! x30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 Q& T3 I* g1 o2 f7 e4 I, g; _2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 Y1 S8 _3 s5 p+ X! fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) a- Q2 z: K* i1 l5 c) J( X. s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 f8 k- X1 Q2 C0 n- D  Sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( S4 |: B' A' R% P5 o- [has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! O( O$ R4 w  v! }8 dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' N1 j; [% y& p9 N9 n( w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 u! ?) ^/ s7 n9 T% ?, B6 j1 i3 {
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' I0 m* a, w' }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ T0 o) v( C( V/ ~9 k
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 P, H6 Y+ T# x1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" I2 [% |! L  j5 |" _% [+ f
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 l" c( U0 b0 b3 E2 O: Z# Z0 V# z2 Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: j1 I3 ?" ]. }4 O# `7 z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 p3 o" D+ s) y0 ~, K8 h8 }unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 r5 W8 v  D6 x' T+ _' @7 I4 t
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ T9 E: F9 D. U# r$ C# W& b8 b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# b- s0 D/ B% Z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
  ^' ]- O  W# ?; b! A( m; fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! `& }. V; `8 E' \; m3 c
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled" T' P1 o5 m  L0 Z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' x$ I& I' z8 K$ r2 H$ H. pThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, F" {. ]+ t" u" f* ^$ W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; f9 c9 o5 p9 M5 F* C8 r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( `1 V0 s7 Z# ^! ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# j1 b( Z7 f" {! a* }8 L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ g! m5 }& g' `  [' j
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* j3 Y1 e6 ?1 L
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- R5 B) i# z4 [4 y2 c6 R* Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 q$ V/ Y; i5 w2 L# tThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average  f/ r' E# z( [
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* D% K! Z. E  I. M3 M
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, t4 j7 k6 i) E9 u3 I& N3 m  d0 ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, z- z  |+ Y6 U8 P% \; {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ s+ P- g/ K* y1 c1 R- m6 @% F
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" `: l# m" x! R, ^leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. W) G+ F. a6 S7 i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 1 }3 X/ V1 W' H, w3 ?. z% M5 Z; W
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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* r% I$ A/ f: P( ?+ `; O7 O6 G3 fhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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