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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. - g$ |9 q) K+ X; T6 o" Q

) X! S: x- U2 MThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. : r0 r; L' k' w8 K: X3 s4 ^9 P9 S

" Y( w8 I" \) o: v, ?6 C) p"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 t5 H  e- Q/ Z; H7 o- A* O* S# s, _
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.3 L. O, V! D" j+ J
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 ]8 A* n- K4 q5 s& u+ @
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 Z& E9 [6 o8 C6 P+ c8 A
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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4 O$ z) O  U; a$ Q" B, m$ e2 rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,9 g/ w! ~; v# U& A' s4 V

1 ~2 ?, B8 _5 ]5 x[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 g" R* O0 y8 a7 c: r
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ L7 A8 T# ]' ]% x, v

& a6 h+ r" H! T/ C[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ Z$ P; L+ r. G  |6 Z9 {6 U+ ~2 u跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
7 X* E, r1 Q  C# V; ]: ]0 c嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta) t. L3 `3 m) r8 P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, ^+ a) ]. y& y/ H, Y( Sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) |  K; }' t9 j9 ^
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ h( B0 K7 u8 J8 v  o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ i) s+ i9 A+ u9 a7 Q1 Lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ s- _2 d6 t2 q5 P$ v
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: @2 K3 s+ I6 Z" X& I0 athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. c( q3 d* t7 l) n6 V
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! Z: S( T2 V+ ~$ t! h# a. G  |
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; T/ k* m& N8 \
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 q3 w% [- G2 X5 e  T# ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 h/ }+ }) x; O7 _0 X5 T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, W9 H9 A+ l+ p5 p( f+ Y0 Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: Y7 y4 U  x- @8 `homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 `1 H: j' Q6 T4 S9 E  k
30,000 new households will form in the province during! Z0 v: }! A) p3 m1 Y) [/ `8 i; I, b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) y1 y, H3 P5 b7 |2 |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ [3 s& m, k. I6 S- q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* U& q5 _. i0 Y* p; b- `' W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- F  B3 x0 k( m2 U/ Z0 A1 Shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 Z: I- f  ~7 K1 Q- ^, `
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 z$ e( C+ |; l9 ?; ]" N7 r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 M" g% w1 K( v
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  b2 Q) s* c/ W" y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 B+ `4 y! S" g. W$ F
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- f, ^+ S; Y% e1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 w; t( r& t$ F  P3 L
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! p; G$ _% R' n6 ?. x( z* lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! |# y7 P' w- _) ~! f' Ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- Z& R. v2 i5 X' r1 P
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ k" U7 j, r& S1 A8 k. f* o$ M
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: O, R3 h  c/ q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 d8 ^6 p5 U& _" }" H1 Z* x' D5 A- @resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! o$ g4 U+ v1 z' x
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 T1 U" ^9 \6 e$ e$ T
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 [" s) h) G0 T" ^9 |* p2 _8 n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.  ]2 j) U4 p$ s3 p! \
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. X5 t; s8 \7 b; e- @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ w" T$ ^" S' ]9 F$ MAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
, {9 h# h) F$ u" d/ jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; l! J( u4 M! w4 C1 P; a$ ~
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 v: h; A$ ~+ m% a, k+ I$ L
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# A  H4 g  g- E# Y* b9 i
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% S* M; U" t; ]0 O* E4 ^on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. K" n; v7 ]1 V6 j, S/ v1 CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 ^$ K1 V# e* A# Q4 E: Zresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, @; ~/ A, `+ L  Y! y' E- |( o0 Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: _- ~, F) Q4 k
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 _3 h9 o5 y/ T, B* \! o) h
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 u3 O; R: C; |1 B
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 a- O  R  z; K# P9 c
leg down over 2009.
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; d, ?4 }  v7 O4 [' k8 Q( s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 O. D$ X$ P! ~5 GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" B2 n) `4 e- S( [0 b' y4 D翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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6 m* r" i  b6 \; Nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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