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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ V6 ~6 _1 i, y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ F% Z. E/ L* ~; D J
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 M1 @+ [( s. t* k; B
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ I l8 b# A( `6 p: O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: K7 s: W! o7 O; T0 G4 J" E; R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 X8 i" l/ j) _% v% U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# J g+ c/ h; y' n; U. F9 y' l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- C7 B/ ?% _6 g- c# U
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( s6 m8 [1 d. c: S1 L2 m7 w; Gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% m2 E6 F( p* h& u ^# ?
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined9 v' l% V9 L& m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 M8 d7 K1 j" Q6 o9 W0 ], P* j
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# Y: s0 x; p* F" E* Nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' O9 C+ V1 w- g* B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) m+ e4 I; J/ D! w! X% R
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 r5 h0 E7 l! A* }7 A# V* L
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
v F# K! v+ v( g$ A8 S) S/ W( ~5 _Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 O0 [, n3 \& G' ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 x% x% v; t/ R9 v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 Q9 ^# a. Q& \# v/ v! S. Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& p' g' h" f, Y+ n- P2 Y. Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 Q7 [1 S& a+ u* T" d
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 x$ ]$ |7 ^2 Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; A/ j; L( U- T, H0 p5 a# B" w1 f, x2 Oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% t9 |3 _! n6 e/ L7 a% c' Pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 J/ Q9 `6 p5 O1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 f- Y9 `8 i# { N2 b8 f
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* }# X+ g# m* V) H! Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( T# ^( ~/ f7 \7 C; C% j& }2 i6 E
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; {3 B* a' ~* e( W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
, l! R( f+ }6 L* runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, T) q" a. `8 J5 I8 a2 R% v* M) p. U
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 o$ Z, _, ?9 s `3 Kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 ^8 \: q# O! M" B) i2 {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ H: h ~/ M' K" Eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! t9 Q3 f0 c1 jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( i* f7 t' m1 O3 h6 _1 VThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: A8 r4 f( }' ?" h" v* v$ F3 Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 c' D$ ~; _$ H: B1 p" \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan) b: o5 I3 k& u& J( ?& U$ C4 l9 F% l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 [3 [: V) } c2 b# M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 c* N- U V0 e' n! E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 ^$ A* R6 i w" K1 G7 @8 S. Z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 ?# ]8 @: Q6 P2 }1 A$ Ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 f" ]2 Z+ r! yThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- j7 Y# {) {) r% c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 J$ O( G( o# z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 A' M A1 {; [. ^! q0 o6 T* m
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: H0 a8 [. d2 X2 q, Z, |deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ z* p- \8 X4 R z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% v' v0 c( K" f$ u4 q7 u
leg down over 2009.
! ~9 R6 f+ r) k, s* [/ Q, I7 h
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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