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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 d" y" c9 `$ ]2 y

$ S* E4 ]( \" r' w8 _% `; lNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.9 F* O% G* O2 V/ s1 n9 Q

5 t9 \; [. z( v0 wTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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# p4 f2 j/ |* s2 J7 ]( w9 R4 u: k"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ; W( F& |1 b. `& Q3 X' L

; z: |/ Q; V! V) e, R5 gTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) Q7 j, _9 m& A  R% f

- h) G8 W" L8 z9 J, ]Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 5 a6 W+ A  {& d3 G4 f* g
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) G9 Z( R# |0 _8 y  K( k. J' S
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( S1 ^. V: }& E  s& y* L  A0 k
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
5 A. J1 d) n& f: G( u6 L跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

4 Z0 k* G# S' q" R很多人都回学校深造去了8 L$ X1 e. l9 q% i* x
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta! v9 h( o5 V2 u/ G% {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 `; v- A* v+ P0 |6 m9 \2 ]8 Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 O; x  R: R! l" ?& Qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 p# A6 P! N4 r( L% a
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 l4 t3 v' z* C! I
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; |# n7 S: }/ q# M) mfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( Y; u6 Z2 o# M) e% u0 f! \2 A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ w' C5 h$ p( C2 @9 p' M* B# Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 X' ^2 b" O( s5 z* D% q! Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% q' G7 D- u. Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& v/ j, x& n5 F4 D+ oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 q& u/ [7 ^/ ?1 ~# o3 E$ vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- `0 q. k' H2 `* u# j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 s; ?3 {4 a& l% Y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) G! c" {6 l7 Q/ y$ f7 H30,000 new households will form in the province during
! V3 m7 W7 }6 {0 C% O: @! t0 W# n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* w& y5 |2 G7 T" IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: F: t$ h5 D( c9 R6 A" z$ y" Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# a- U9 e0 H- t2 p' k' pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 @; I3 }4 w7 f8 nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 o% m6 B( H% dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, ], D8 N) F0 ^
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ j7 }% R0 {# m5 |; n) Rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 S* e, _" x! g5 b/ N( }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ P9 j3 v( k4 ~# R) @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: C3 u# W8 s% n  v9 z/ h0 \& i2 U
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 _. p! g" u7 `. Z% A0 {2 P3 i$ f. ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' `" |; D" T% \4 }4 d% {. }" d
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 i2 M1 [4 T: K# l/ W- J2 H9 p
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 W. ~. ^! |, X* W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. G  z8 H! z2 t* F; e9 q% B5 }( lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& H1 o' p# T6 a+ t. b2 [7 V8 e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 p6 N4 R) H4 a
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 l* D/ X8 e2 _# V. {
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ q4 K4 E0 `5 ^8 S# y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled( p3 `/ N' i" z$ }, S
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 e0 ^7 v, x5 C& r, EThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- b2 C6 W# z! x8 F! @, c: o2 hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 v+ Q1 G# l5 m& Y% A6 bAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 J9 I* @' v' @' z- @housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% `. B- O4 l# f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& f+ H# a' F9 e+ h: M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# m0 U" l$ d0 z# ?9 r! m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. u5 b3 Q. C0 I( d+ w  Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 D: B; e. T' }. i, U# A2 S* }( CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% W' w8 ]! y% I# S2 G, R4 ^
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, I& p5 H/ c+ N$ n7 vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 H% X3 `( q, Y4 |2 l. i7 ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! W6 g1 o6 Q( W" j# Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 @0 X) D+ \$ N& f  ^' _( B
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 c- G% ^' \# x5 }
leg down over 2009.
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5 V4 @4 Z. G; ]6 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: Z8 s7 \, A' H, O& K: O& D  b/ TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% Z5 Y; H: D. T! y- h6 p翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子$ ~6 k4 n. G7 b9 ]2 I5 C

3 h1 v0 W  E) F0 {) }5 }1 ?http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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