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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 H4 v# C; ~+ f5 j- g; _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ c6 W: z5 L( v" J/ \ `# H' dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& u( i3 ?" `; x- U. M& e
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. v* O V4 [+ k9 U5 _2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: E4 y) c8 A) nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 Q; T& n7 H) C, i3 @) {( ?) yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 J( T, m; f4 t* q4 L0 S/ ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 Q9 c* O) d/ \# I Kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. t% D. ~( E: h$ A# Xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' i$ I) S4 |* P$ q" G0 H' }
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 D3 @) j9 a0 u( q- ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- @7 \4 l. {4 q. p1 B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ h+ h# ?1 `& p3 E, Z8 Hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- U) X7 B7 q- j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- J& g" k0 K* D/ J |
30,000 new households will form in the province during" y/ ]& A; m1 M, d! a \6 }, Y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# [, g2 O. _3 s, J9 ?' ]Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 B- F# o0 M" [+ L6 a. Ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 t7 P" e" k5 \8 U! _+ H3 e% Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# l- e# C6 H) O0 r4 m: C( Qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 l2 a& T! ?" K
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. o& `* ?2 R* S: L
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! u" e6 b' [" C7 _+ b5 i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ k' N8 E# C- o- f3 r8 B. Gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 i, K$ G5 M! \4 Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 o' T: l$ U. _/ B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ B7 }- y5 I4 P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" W- h. o' q+ M0 X$ V7 J ?% W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; F" x2 ]' K, R7 {two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
' u/ ?2 Y$ n, Y$ q! qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 q+ |2 g, @. `8 b( j* g/ D
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* k; o# ~- @6 z# X+ f5 Y$ precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 U+ J D3 E. q" b" U2 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) v1 Z+ U! L6 x* t4 y9 v: R1 k3 smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! J" }1 `; [$ I$ U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, w6 Z( x4 J* W" K
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ Y6 M$ c9 y+ K4 q! I. DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: z9 y' R, e E8 N3 o' F0 Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
u" s0 @) b j6 M( l8 d% m+ ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 }* Q, L$ T$ H# b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! a, d: i3 t. C1 m" M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 H! O: ^1 j. z' S8 S2 u5 i
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 u' f! ^6 H/ i Dthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 N) p* i" B0 u: y/ Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ ~( a$ A4 H- \1 F: c# X% w
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' k1 r; A6 {( Eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
- G8 k. y6 v# B! Eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ ?: H$ j! H% M7 F1 Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 u( ^% d: j& W6 ]4 Xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ g6 W6 L4 \9 W. s" z$ k! P( sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' {' L5 F7 L; u/ P3 m; qleg down over 2009.
5 |) w3 e! U0 V8 L4 E+ D
7 S( S# o; P# o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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