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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta: I4 E/ {' R4 ]( s0 s
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 M2 R. _$ X% {8 P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 N& u8 E) t* m T- Iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% P/ S0 M2 n3 `- L$ a. O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household o. q- X Y- {' `6 a
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# }" H4 a* t6 `7 D5 Z8 t) |! Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 g: f H7 s! T* W E# s
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# ?2 ]; D( ?% R! h% `) D+ xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ h, d; X( ]; b kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* a0 Y& J2 i* _9 L9 |5 L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ w6 ]$ k" z% W; c. r. R! hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* K+ D- e0 z7 c& ^6 s7 E
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 a* m9 O/ i- E+ fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! e/ r" x- s$ Y+ L9 C# F' o2 C
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 k( m1 K7 m5 o+ d5 Y30,000 new households will form in the province during( h Y/ v* J4 C% O9 M7 i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 S8 e! [. a0 c7 n9 Y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% d' J8 c$ S* O# khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% _: L( L+ g3 w. r9 E% P8 S' N, B$ v2 bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) a$ ?; u& A% Y) d% \; [has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* J; m2 M$ a$ }households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* Z5 r7 E' E; `during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ K7 Q, Z( D7 X3 U0 ?+ i% }sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
r0 t3 t5 @3 |8 |; E& fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. P% q5 G' c1 K; s1 f& ~7 C6 X- mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ c t: j, b/ S4 K1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 A4 o4 \+ e) Z5 asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 Z5 x0 C' d9 \- P- u$ c. ~ @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: r% R' S; E3 D& \$ T' |6 e, \
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
u' t# E$ O4 J6 u- j6 h, G/ qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% M3 A4 t6 m' i$ b0 F$ |unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* U2 J. {+ X4 D& n) U' {" [recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ y2 E) S3 v+ [; [% Y$ hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# b. ]% t/ e' |; M1 @# \0 omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% g* F [6 c: p/ E2 a4 k
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 l8 ?( G. h y: Jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# s% T# R9 Y* T5 Z J9 i2 s% g
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 D+ h, V. b9 z* U+ d" Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 }2 W, E5 W5 S
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* E7 j( Z$ n' h8 n) S+ k
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 W! s- M$ B0 a3 B6 {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ c* k( E3 D1 G; g6 W0 Z: P, E( M3 h, H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 ]$ O2 g6 f. c: b% k1 I
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; R2 v" B1 p$ P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- ~ ]' Z4 C! w+ U6 m% s6 [, z1 o
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
~$ C- q1 V z; [/ J, \' i) J3 hresale price in February is evidence that past prices* ]5 L: Q* v1 P
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 W. h2 N2 _" `) J! |# @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& {1 N; L2 s9 Y7 _' ]' r
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
C/ x3 Q7 e! R% r( q$ N7 MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 i8 W& P, a) @/ Kleg down over 2009.
% r+ b7 X' [( _
9 D& c2 [, N/ p3 h; }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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