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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
: g- `: B' Q; k% KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ B9 U; W1 O4 Q/ V: U/ C1 @" e [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 N' h+ g/ x7 }0 S( m; I& n; f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 _4 @" x0 t: I( q5 a4 z& x
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% H* e& F. y0 c* U/ ]. U4 Mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 H& X I; D0 c7 E1 nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 |' `/ \# J/ K1 athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* u5 O- @5 s4 H) i. u; T+ h3 fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: T! [! ]9 x* X# l- o1 ~7 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- W6 ~, }$ c+ k. D( [9 y4 p
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 v5 {7 j8 p# @: z0 E& J- `( n5 i+ bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' f& Q4 `4 c/ B8 u9 v) q. z* R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 w3 P0 C; F9 z2 a d5 uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- V, g w. Q( b! |4 d# L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# ~, k0 I% X3 k5 P( p& A
30,000 new households will form in the province during* G" Y+ a" w0 P2 w7 w, k4 I
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& U% H( C$ [5 g) x% @5 v
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 u9 _5 r- t8 v" o: v* Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. h& d* ]$ L8 f& J* a% @( r3 zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 ?( n1 [- y( W) `* h* C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! I6 ]) X8 ]( _. p! g$ h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, m: w3 F8 f& |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 I1 o2 x! W( d1 S0 zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: K V2 x- G; B5 k; Fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 |& ^' h! R, [$ u) w7 [) ?
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 Z# }' _! O0 U& a) k; N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 n3 b" I% a5 h N8 t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 E$ s6 U" I/ [7 A; ]
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
a, q, o* e0 |& u- e+ _6 {- Ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 t" D$ m: @0 gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. h, N4 j" _7 m5 e5 o( @- f- L+ l/ H
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& \! i2 I* P' \& s5 r
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ S8 x0 w2 ?: x% @) e' Hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ U5 M. u/ z4 E; e2 G
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( v3 X' H8 j- I8 X
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 j0 f. T1 e) Z& y/ ~
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 } M% c. @( kThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. i: y( U5 |' s6 G: j# v4 c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 i9 y7 @8 l! y9 oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ K) \: K+ j- j9 r# z; |' d
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) A6 }5 _! Y( q9 j9 j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- h5 J4 k' U; x, b4 m. d$ M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ @) u% w6 ]6 B/ E& U, q* f! g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, G+ r2 l. {" h1 P9 Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( z: U: l" X9 A }/ e) d" T" |9 | I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 s/ s7 N: z/ e+ e* T/ y
resale price in February is evidence that past prices: ]! x3 c4 O ^: q }+ k4 A* X$ _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! V9 g! m9 ^, L$ u0 K
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ ?. Y1 G# v7 r+ j5 sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 Z0 i- T+ @2 K0 O; b! s9 w, R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* |5 z& K. w. Z7 A7 N p) {
leg down over 2009.
+ O8 E) v7 z7 F. [1 j Z) ^ ]0 m h i$ N8 r
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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