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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & k) o0 [, v1 N7 ]

; G) a  Q: T" ~9 x+ R6 [The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   y* a8 M: n/ ^1 Y3 t8 l5 p
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ! [5 K8 w5 D2 ^% r& y3 l8 n
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  B" T3 ^1 _7 k& O

4 L* U& G4 U3 c1 Z"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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3 ?& C8 A( P9 eTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 p( R; E0 U  U" m6 u' A  i

: @" s" m: n8 [* d& A4 Ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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' H2 {+ o" w/ ^3 A5 RTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
$ \% m5 f/ b1 C5 o 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
! h5 c5 K. P' W# S. }& M1 X3 c跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
9 c( |" N5 V& M4 U+ q: u嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta5 x$ N- }$ z% V# F6 q1 O
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 n! F3 v6 l& O# d6 x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* x; a% w) v/ J8 o- F) L: s. g- R
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 p, B+ ~+ s4 P# d1 r/ O& H" I
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 e9 n# x' n8 }4 X* `
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 g5 K# ^7 l& L6 J' V+ \5 P& p4 Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ O2 |( r$ b/ w: \& ithe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& p5 d9 f+ F  U3 i8 V7 E& Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ N+ k- Z4 G+ ?4 z7 A5 q$ f3 hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 _1 a/ F, V: d5 w. \
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 _  n7 c7 m) E( Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. y0 ^, y& n9 ]8 d* `8 @
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. j1 \7 ^/ d3 U* fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# {- g, A5 M1 S$ ~% e; o  E. \
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 y% `' ?( }$ C5 y; e30,000 new households will form in the province during
& K8 l/ c  C) J9 C5 ]$ R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% R$ ?9 C1 A' s* s! A4 w. n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; G. }0 t" u7 l8 U. z2 a3 E2 _; l' `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 I. o) Q  A( H' `* o) t/ B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 a' W& @; G2 lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) ~# K2 D( c5 yhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 u1 g+ x* L# p8 n1 C6 f
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- L* m/ R& [* |& ?' m, B2 ?* P
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories% h: n0 t3 ]. m2 p8 K0 l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 E; ^& [6 o, C
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  M& X& q9 a! J  |1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 n  j* X9 g% y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ K7 i/ w5 i; z$ i% z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: ?" l5 u/ k2 y# {9 ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 ^6 `( l6 @9 Y0 N2 ?5 o5 bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 F/ t3 Z6 z) _4 L6 _) H& iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* W; @3 l1 x0 T$ F% ]4 P' j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 b2 m; ?% L- D% d' `7 c9 @resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% J2 A/ h/ K* n: d$ j. ?, o' O0 r. _major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' C& T  e; s" _$ K7 Z6 S3 f9 rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 F+ F, x. w' zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 }! D$ L3 y5 M1 MThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- Y* s) k7 ?; Q% p% X9 cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; R9 p1 q) g1 t  Y' ~  e, m' PAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# W8 e' u& e# h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 {5 F$ B* f9 U- H! S. B
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 W' l% o3 H" ^* @$ N, p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- P8 U+ X! f/ ^6 n5 tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 e" Q* h% x4 @6 s- [9 n- R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 Q2 g  ]8 q5 Y( |* ~* T6 nThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* l4 S: j# E0 F+ a/ \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 K1 t8 G0 `' R6 A& O
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 Z7 U2 w- Y, N4 m# p- O2 D  B6 ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’/ L- R: \3 ?. ~. E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 q/ o/ G( w8 j8 }) p% X8 {6 G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 j/ a( s% R5 w# U% {0 G* @  |( w, Y
leg down over 2009.9 Y6 L3 K0 a2 P/ z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 x6 _& t; `$ W. a; t8 O7 m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 9 @  M0 y+ c, W* O* f& @% y
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子4 \" h  n' T, V  Y0 T9 X

7 X4 y6 G# M2 [% C6 C0 X+ z) ^% khttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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