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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 H, O0 s$ \ f6 O4 I. QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. ^: k" x/ d, e- S0 J# \) }boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( o9 ?' g/ p" w0 eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ [( H. o' P" M _& G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 g. p5 S$ N4 Z, U5 y% d) @5 i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
\$ T! i$ d3 Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" M: N- x( S3 rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 R2 ?/ V0 y N/ H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
s* F! l4 ]/ N( y; S/ c4 apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 }# _9 D6 ~3 w8 u5 |
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" _9 {2 _. G, M6 Dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ L( M1 w9 P) ]% i0 o% C% o0 D7 Fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ Y, G' j3 {# x1 s: ?* kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) f4 ` ^$ d, r! ]homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 ?; T! |3 w' Q; }8 a30,000 new households will form in the province during9 J7 |% Z8 b& H% T ]- h
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" i, ?5 x; c/ p, { ^* N5 c: |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) b# p0 N- ^2 [6 bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 F( Y& M G- q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& A6 H' g0 f' ]- B- f2 p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 k& r& k* y- X- \2 @! K
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 m8 a" f$ ~' E1 t) _2 nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! o5 Y. u, B! Z* U" ~' h- S
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ D' p9 ]) X/ o- B \8 V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% g* f: W( ~' o3 r0 J: [excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 g6 @' [) S) d
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 V3 m3 l& f1 [2 t. q) y+ { l9 N) w
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 ~! E0 [( C+ H7 ^2 l- P$ \6 abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, z G4 O( U, m. I. z( q9 xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 h8 T( R0 t# M& K* c8 eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: f6 r F: w d2 q% U8 I4 V' e, iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
k( u) g3 S1 P& `; H# }recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' t0 n; \5 f) jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# w6 K x( k; e- K8 Dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% a G$ r- ^; {7 h; A" |* i) @of new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ v' q0 N; b+ z# t+ D, B) ?
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ w9 b. j& e K3 O/ i; `
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 L. `* t- k* v- K2 x7 P, `boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( O5 F; z7 z* _+ N3 I, JAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan4 L4 ]6 ^8 T7 ^- G: h3 g
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 S0 r* p1 K. @# T' S0 i
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 F- M3 W0 G2 r/ i4 q9 a' P" v ~. K. N/ q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! v: C; |& B, }' Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; D* o9 F& G- M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ i- x4 _1 Z5 i8 C4 x: FThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& R7 U1 l4 \0 M* S) Tresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. a5 q" \9 Z0 w" Uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( X8 s; ^- h# \; ]homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. E5 q0 k9 T! `6 f3 W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 z8 a) A# q: q V, A: r2 k# E3 y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% d. U9 }4 d4 ^" \; U
leg down over 2009.
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* e2 O! I: ^ m" T* |$ j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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