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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 m$ v; B/ f* F" d! D4 FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. g! h% T5 s( O% C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; {: I0 \8 v$ n, H# J8 p0 Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 J9 t2 ^ b$ Q" }* \ d. J
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( z) M4 M8 a, E7 @: j; i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 M6 m2 U, Z1 {% i' N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, _$ d0 }) l, p0 E; c6 @% }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ g3 R% u4 k: x. Bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' ?6 o5 J2 q) n' K, rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; }# m2 D; ?7 W9 L ~; S5 s' y0 rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, g/ x6 u5 {0 \ B w- ^
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" }" q! S" }5 U$ }; z+ mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* G/ f! g3 z4 G" j$ v' ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; D; V {$ z; n. v4 M3 W) y) L5 fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- a* a4 g3 ?0 n1 o# ]& j
30,000 new households will form in the province during
; g6 k: [# j8 o( l ?2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' O& M% i* i* G! W `Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ w5 Q- |* k r$ l6 P( _
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 R7 Y J+ i5 P: Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) B* t% o0 m% n1 U' x* l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- N! M0 W' i3 W$ }9 x6 ~7 I
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 C' |4 d3 a! O0 K j; ]! S. J2 N2 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ _7 r; n1 R8 Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ E/ v5 R3 W4 fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 j, [6 U2 E5 u' i# Fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" i z2 H, n# z. J' ^3 P! Y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ K: f) d/ v. o* y, l4 A! msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive l* w! t8 e& @& C2 W8 S' [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 z+ R' _' m' c& t; p; Z4 Jtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( N: ? |0 H# y( d3 p: hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# }* _$ F5 ?4 ~& [! U2 M2 T8 [
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( p& L6 C, A3 r: n& x8 {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; a: z( D; w" Eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ {* l' m2 |. {: x/ d" W
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: m, h- d D% s8 p" N
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: D/ B* g5 m' K2 F" Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( b+ z* C; G7 e0 \' wThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# y7 U" ?0 C O( ~/ a$ C1 o1 hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; r" ~0 j1 J5 y" {3 L' G) ^) r1 ~; X
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( ~, f4 Q m2 S; M/ v& jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, Q3 c+ }7 M8 Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* G9 L9 u5 y7 B/ o, v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: ?2 T0 o1 B' J! R; {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 Y+ Y+ F5 x. d0 e# g) }: y) ion average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; `% p. W* c/ J: e. H
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ Z$ x0 Q; |# ~# }4 k9 h" y( vresale price in February is evidence that past prices( I' W) W7 B5 u* l7 m) e" l0 R) E# S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 n2 H) w: M6 B2 C
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. Y1 X/ F j: jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 \( o: `$ X7 W" m xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" k# p* G8 q0 H, U$ S+ Nleg down over 2009.5 Z+ }) P, [: d9 \. m6 I: Q/ H' e
- f$ Y( L2 K) ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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