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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + |- p* g4 a5 A7 O% ^7 f) G

. {( c$ r* @- y5 o; zThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. , ?# n# [8 \2 i1 ?

2 o0 ?2 |5 \5 B2 h, U. T' d"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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6 m9 S! M5 q0 o; }# |- g7 I2 r. rNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 `# t9 @7 L7 l) v
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* P7 J& A' z% M5 o0 }

2 k& g! m" S3 v"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' S6 ?# i' X) d1 y6 l! N/ V+ a2 _

& }  B  {$ Q" tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.# q" U! \9 @2 q
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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( v" a; p. W) A2 `http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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( x7 I! b7 `+ h1 ~  G; XTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: m' M5 O. v4 p( Q

3 J* Q& N4 \. n0 h0 ~[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
& B/ f) j' Z* ]1 J 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 # f0 Q1 K5 t, @5 a0 r3 d
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
& ~+ F  X% U5 U& N. e. O  v, a. w嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
& l3 x5 d. v* }* s  gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, W3 z2 i5 T! g) Eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# y1 ]' h: R  h" v9 M/ u  c  N2 z8 b
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! ?4 W2 V# ?& o" `
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 h2 {  X0 O8 H9 s$ j
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: P4 q, U  m3 v+ pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ w: P+ w4 z* g  \7 ~" x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. G0 J0 ^  r# y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# U/ y) u, s+ tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. ]8 p5 A' N; u9 ^7 H
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' }. A, b, V( V# z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 r5 V+ B* ]. y9 K# ]3 Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this! y* F/ x: e5 d/ n8 }7 Z% N/ }! Q+ X) ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; k6 J$ y9 _" L2 @% zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& U/ U" c0 A$ |  I30,000 new households will form in the province during& E* Y' k7 f4 X- g* S6 U2 Z. J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 C2 Y/ ^% q$ [! q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* R& U8 G" r; k1 T) ^  \4 R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' v4 r0 l; [3 f5 y* S3 {* H
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' l- @* Y# o, C0 g
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, z! [- Z, R  e7 E& o# V! `
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. h7 M' R0 P4 G3 d' tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. U) }5 X, o6 O, t
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# G: l7 B! [' {+ P# hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& k& D. B! k2 r( A9 m- O0 H
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. n4 r9 [( R/ s/ d3 o+ L1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 `; M5 C& @' `% W* S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ w* H4 M7 }4 B  ]5 u) R6 ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 O9 E0 u: Y/ v0 e9 k
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, q" {5 V; l, Y' ?unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
  |: {9 W. I$ W$ I4 r" T" [& S7 Ounsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, ~* f* k4 M& c" T8 V& W
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 {. d# L& X, V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 V; n# ?- W9 D/ P2 p6 u" o  `major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 K/ |: t' A4 y/ U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 f+ o+ q. @0 {. x' B; G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% Y' _/ S3 J% p. n
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 m% e8 _  C) e1 P8 y& _- dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( Y, f' j) ]; W- {0 S: [Although income growth was very strong, Albertan" S2 U. I: Y/ X" R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" }' j) Y& w" M" ^* v1 C  M& p
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  `5 s, \9 ^6 Y1 D+ m: H; Mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 D0 T8 n- _* c4 qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
/ O: T( K* p/ |, ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 I7 {) b) ^  C( s' M0 h
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 q  o* p: z0 ?9 O. n1 L$ @+ V6 u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices& n8 J+ `# f/ N  T. S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 ]* F  l  j( ]( Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ k* i' p1 K8 |1 u/ ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. P; a' {, U( d9 I. _4 h/ ^& ^2 P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: q6 K4 e) n/ U) ^5 e# q0 t
leg down over 2009.
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+ m. J' J" J; f- g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- ]5 O. K. ~6 I
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 r' P4 b5 K# y/ p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ n0 B# I( G2 g# n( a8 P
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& _$ H& Q# ]0 {" c
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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