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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.) b" f2 \9 B: b$ ]4 |! i
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 4 O* w& S6 m+ y& I& C& m6 y6 J
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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. A% B  u" L9 Q$ @& T  \6 S* b"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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# q. |7 [* S0 }$ h/ ^& n: \Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 R- q4 R" u- |% Q' g

7 H# c4 o* k; m. z) r" e"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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, Z0 w8 u: y& M6 {  c; V3 dTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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! b; w& _; H/ D& O* bMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , G- W/ ?! d& s! Q. D

4 R: t3 u, O- Y( whttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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+ g) u0 t4 i5 O9 `9 e6 F/ {[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
3 j' {+ }2 i% N5 M: Z/ b, V 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 e1 _8 t( p% N! r) g( S1 L% q" N

* \4 Z4 \# |# R/ U! ~/ J* W[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , p: x. y* m# s' L; g
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了& Z$ i3 ~3 `2 f- C" @4 b/ }- z
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& m+ z3 u0 w7 O! w. H4 a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 E, ]6 y/ d6 H1 k2 jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 |5 _+ |4 K, m9 K' l. tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 Y7 S% ^0 B# U: ~" J! ]  }- ]
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) Y  J% O3 |8 \+ pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 ~; Q( ]& l2 o' I. r+ yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  V4 z+ o: Z6 K& }7 t+ gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 D9 s" _! l5 Y! j8 Jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 h% c# x  F& p1 H7 j; {# T7 xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: ~1 G3 g% T- q5 X5 sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 z2 I0 d# `  p% U7 d0 V( A6 Y$ v, F0 xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' f: b. @- m9 r- E1 V- B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 g' a, _2 l7 F- T  f& S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" X- o4 A" d. _: p* m0 a4 lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& Z4 {2 T) U% b) N/ q30,000 new households will form in the province during6 z( B3 M) P1 C  a' ?, ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 W/ U3 J6 r0 T5 L: H+ g! M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ k/ e, J' Q9 ^/ z* uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 s4 a' A" r+ E/ \( t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; @6 J3 |; J4 I' e0 M, n  o( \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 x0 d  D( t7 c) q' }/ j: T
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 L& Z, E: L' S% b5 k! _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ |5 ]7 V: D  r) z+ R( n; {
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 O8 ]" u5 v9 ~+ Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 ?( `( O$ Z4 texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( ?# j3 u& r7 \% c# d; a3 g
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 E! ]" b, }+ w# p3 T
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) M, M* S$ S3 y) t7 h6 z5 q
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 ~) f/ j% m8 s! r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 O* f4 o- h+ _6 Ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& R* G* w) R) X% H6 Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; \8 q" _4 ?3 z2 B7 Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" [3 I- o8 w3 d0 W1 T; k) [
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ L9 I, s! @8 J$ J2 b
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 [5 `2 K( z1 M2 M. E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. p* ^5 W" }* a- x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, C* l% v" Y8 v+ O$ B" ]  `9 ]The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 k# R5 ^( P. `* B. f
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ z) \2 E1 e; v. S6 jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 W0 P4 l+ y$ W! h: w9 v9 Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 y5 _! u: n  r# M. \$ ~8 }7 yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! y1 j9 u' t6 q# [) f4 p% T6 V
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ W) K. ]/ v2 B9 ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: I4 {) s) f* \# H% x/ w/ u9 @* ^1 Won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 K8 r" q/ H+ Y, Q, ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' z8 H2 Q) u* {' O' uresale price in February is evidence that past prices8 E. d+ M1 A3 ]9 c. L( |
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, {" O( t, F4 u' g$ H, mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( v  A5 r" e5 E* C; w# R- V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! W  u9 h+ Z' r$ j7 K5 C1 w+ e8 hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 o- m1 f' i9 A% Q3 r# Z; ~4 gleg down over 2009." a( N6 n6 ^& C) K9 O
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  T8 [; {2 X: U7 h8 {0 M
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 9 D$ Y% ~( H1 |4 R1 y% _
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* X7 T9 m7 P. ~! Z) g& p! T; i+ N4 V) W
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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  x7 v: T( A; N* M. {5 c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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