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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
: }  u+ ]: A  v% p7 Y' v1 N" a! v- a9 N2 {+ ~$ [, [/ E0 Y+ J2 J1 B
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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& T% E' G0 U+ c( [$ Y5 o, Q! {! `TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.9 G( ^  L; `" a9 J
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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+ ^9 p! u7 G* S( M0 `. G" \TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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3 I4 R. ?6 V, B& {5 V5 r! nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% |3 B$ q9 ~( V
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ z6 i; B( v! ^4 y# X: ?
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  x/ t3 J( ?( T9 Y/ g5 V

8 L) G* H% @4 _$ ?2 f- }7 t4 R[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  Q; b0 D, Z7 N9 E5 |6 Q  m# H/ J8 b跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
, x. E  j9 W9 X' A( V4 m$ W嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# f+ w' W, U) Z) q1 z4 W+ Z2 \: M0 IWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 A' v# Z8 ]6 d3 ?' X/ K: |boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: I4 _3 a6 o7 F. v2 U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 U4 S: S$ S. \; Q$ [- |4 n- s1 v* k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 D/ E7 v( |; T) A5 K4 kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! g8 l+ _( N9 [5 S/ nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ r& s2 \: a( y- V: qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% k# B  @8 a7 M. I; Z( u
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
  U& D5 C/ s7 l2 D! g0 [& _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( @! s% ?* m# D: A- @5 Q: Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 N4 }# Y, |" ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
  I2 A9 u/ U# _0 ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" n# G3 U& |$ \* ?) W" Z5 d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 F( ?0 _4 s' Z: {6 Q( k# Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around6 C4 x: z# f' q# b9 i- ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ o2 l6 Q# _8 `  t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! Q5 R# |* j( E  o, h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- _5 C! ]0 @+ m6 p
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ k1 x( a0 K/ J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 |" B6 J' ?9 Q- H+ K0 I
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( R# }7 Y  l9 i- `
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# n$ z& R6 E% ~" [- D' g  V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& W; W8 h" z0 N% ^& x" g- {sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# i$ w3 Z& {6 G8 e( Z- x) t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& u2 Q  B/ P9 f7 R( h: ~: _1 X! M% c( |excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 q) z7 H4 Q+ N0 t' K) X* ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ G4 W. `8 @  G7 ?' msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
' K' V' }# G, W5 P5 gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ \& }8 {# I" D4 G& O/ Otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# C+ {  ~2 v) e; J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) Z. A5 ?& ~$ W' V  K
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 A) p3 c& X4 K; [) a8 ^1 _0 ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; N7 }; g  e; h; R9 X( @" uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% `0 W1 M4 x! X6 W' V: Z# mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 F2 ~: x4 [3 \7 T# sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 p1 h6 H( J) h. Y, q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: h  s- c3 x% {6 HThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  d1 h1 H+ |: \2 D. ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 H* e2 q" F( |- EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan, c- J8 ~; J8 z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: l. J8 A* W$ I7 m2 Drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ t+ U  p9 V4 ~- g6 r) q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 O2 x: i3 p# W# W1 s) L7 Kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- Y8 ]8 a9 a# S' w) j/ yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 G+ ?- n) G: ^* }/ K8 ^The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 r  |: T+ Y; }" V
resale price in February is evidence that past prices( i7 }+ i4 \* C6 A4 k' t$ C% S5 `: M+ X
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& T1 Q7 ^) ~' S' M
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 L3 A8 ?+ T6 \' t+ Y. P# W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 w. Y8 Q4 B$ A5 I1 D* b8 `5 ^2 t/ W
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% {7 ?1 `$ l( o5 [1 d' S
leg down over 2009.
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/ b$ ]1 V  N% e) k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ @+ a! t# }' p$ o. c! c: mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 Z4 [3 v  W' t2 [翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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: P/ ]' `& i! E. T3 Hhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! m  c8 v6 b" ^+ Q3 f3 c  Q
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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