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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" \/ \0 ]( ]3 r8 ^; J$ KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 r8 {( j5 D% a3 Tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 t& |5 ]4 p ~+ ]4 Z9 _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' \& h, a# J: B2 F2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, w! W7 s$ `; Q Z: p) {1 H- e, C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# a7 ?; ?' \* @* E* Z+ N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. r6 k8 `. l: N: E1 Z0 [: G
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; e3 z+ Y$ U' s) imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ |. J: ~$ V# L' R$ `
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 [: c6 C/ t4 `+ d# o4 V2 V
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 `9 v# z: \- T& W3 R' J8 _$ \( Q) M
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 M5 {3 L0 a) P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, @1 ~6 o$ z+ Z t9 B) yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 ?) D: |" W& g+ E: whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
n! ?, M6 \* T: X% v( L30,000 new households will form in the province during* G2 }7 w6 z, W* o* X @: ]
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 B% t& L8 |7 h# D; LEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' B# H N' [) ~: Q& i+ \( H9 Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% \4 F- X- s2 B& ]& F* Z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& E6 g, P0 n8 chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, S4 b, F( ^1 d0 J7 w9 G5 q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals ^- b8 Z2 J: P8 f( I1 H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 F N1 P$ W' a9 n0 gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 L2 _" ^* t% x9 ?5 p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 q2 _" n u- O0 N0 g; z# X M
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* n; [* q( l& k& P$ n" l5 o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& C' L! j c7 v2 h( w. \! I2 p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 q( G7 w6 W5 p. ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# L$ X& Z1 @5 P+ \; z8 K" T% s. g/ i
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& W7 y8 a! N7 H9 @' @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 n: p, m" o: u
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' I. O7 y! ^' x0 A) C8 K4 d( z( S/ ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 V' [" @7 ?: q# a$ ^4 m uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! P# \7 ^$ D9 t" z! Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
D. m# B1 |8 n3 cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- J+ \5 U; M8 |6 Drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: Y9 k# Z% H; Z1 ~9 s" R$ J
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% P, h7 j$ T- p) H9 \boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ X3 L+ l& c% B8 c% Y) [Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; K5 o$ S! Y5 i* D$ g) w0 X
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) }# ~: {' ~* F) F9 s( ?) o! J+ Frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 C9 R- ^) g, D( A+ z3 ^* @+ M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 O2 D: ~3 M" J1 i- t9 pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ a; N ]% {7 r" U0 ]5 b0 q6 A) ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.: v3 H- C3 C# A" E$ W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) P: r+ p+ Z$ L; |. Hresale price in February is evidence that past prices3 t' u+ Y/ F4 q) h& Q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 L- m8 a- H7 D4 u
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# q) Z$ D; \2 }) E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! W: z* l8 L) M3 ?6 S8 T3 e" n1 Y. wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
O& y* `6 U7 t! Sleg down over 2009.
. ]5 `+ @7 b; V& {; p' L3 g# G2 Z- ?4 O1 |+ d7 s
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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