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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ n- }3 F" K/ ?. H" }% _9 k
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ ~4 s/ r/ u: J" b4 a* i- ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 A! S# B$ e5 }: v8 i% @+ T6 B# Z6 r4 N
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 @) T4 _/ b* _2 x: W
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( _3 u3 ^8 q* T# u( \
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 M% A. o$ f- d$ R, M8 S f9 B
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 v& ^ J+ d) p& X% G9 O
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 f* D' A K$ T) D( l! emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, p2 D, G ~8 p& Ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- Y0 [ e7 h7 B1 N( {9 u" b: t
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( N: d3 e% a+ u7 C K0 ?1 s1 s4 a5 b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 I6 d% H2 W t( y oprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; Z, c" ^& c. Wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
9 g' Y2 D, R* Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around6 r- t; o/ o( X7 \& C2 p
30,000 new households will form in the province during
}2 a6 D5 i W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; v0 u3 v2 c5 _) I
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 ?! R5 \0 I/ ~( X. M7 j8 ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* _2 N; u# N3 A1 ]/ iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- j b; h8 o0 p8 o7 L* V6 K
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: O0 H* `8 C9 {4 Hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ K- Y5 {2 c- ]5 y; j
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 r+ t, h/ E" E8 }( Xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: Q7 Z4 K7 W4 o8 v. D: C% A* U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) s z5 K3 c3 k1 V6 _* U+ r5 Pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" s1 G0 Z1 y( s0 F& S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 d/ j& S' e- j( b& s2 `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* D1 g7 P9 t9 U- N* Y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- ^5 O ^$ L. ?# [, H) J) t0 E B0 Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# s9 ~# E0 @ s/ q1 f5 k ]; B4 wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- \0 z* |3 m' }, hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 V+ C5 s% D4 }2 [' ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 u' ~" r; I$ \4 l' @resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 ]* h# `: Y) ]7 C' n3 gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories, w2 C3 z2 B( E/ N# }7 b
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 k! v$ Y; `7 u3 grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; \/ k- X8 o4 _% v3 N/ M
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 L# K; f1 d! k; hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 `* A" v' ^" FAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ W' r2 l+ {- V' p" dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. v2 o' [+ D. o9 e2 n8 S, J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ f( S9 R& d4 ], _0 x# ?- Aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 P7 o8 v( `2 Q& Fthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( p, v3 }$ @0 ^+ F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& `! x2 h2 a7 x8 K0 A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 H1 h# s' t1 h! r9 [5 k2 o) b4 Fresale price in February is evidence that past prices
: m7 ^; h/ P8 i$ d# }3 xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% y$ [4 E9 \+ b/ X" Xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 s. d8 _" d, R- g0 l/ e+ Pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: Q2 h2 L0 H' M& nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 a# O. ]) v6 O0 [2 T
leg down over 2009.
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6 a, C9 h# e) X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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