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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 }. i( W% G% F# {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 d! x6 f I: p B! E4 m. @: [; X" R
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& w9 e3 }3 o% f Y2 Nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& ~& ?9 Z" C, a9 y( j/ Z& j2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ F* g* |; M1 C$ H) U8 H- p2 m( F
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 J3 [: M6 z: _- M% I' G/ ?# Wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: j: O; `9 e) C
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 G3 a! Q0 I& E) Q$ H& T7 m: Jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 v* N7 b. Y* j' c1 I
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& F: M8 W. y, G- z' Kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" g) @) @+ Q8 P$ Z3 O/ nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# y ? _! t5 u; e
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; ?0 j4 m) c& K$ x1 S5 o6 ~7 Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 x* t% |2 o" x) k9 l+ j, E- c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 W" I) p, `4 Y5 d$ X) m/ x
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 N$ H+ v+ _, ]
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 c- f6 R9 D5 E3 n& b* c) h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 a# {5 e/ P4 D. rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 q5 P9 L. `0 R. e4 d) l0 |; cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% L6 L- l2 [; N# ^* ? a+ r
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- R% w4 ~9 w; D" e! T7 Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 a$ e3 v) u' v5 n* E H. l
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% X* o, v) a0 G% A) e+ ~
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# U0 @; L% W" Z \8 W4 O' b3 B8 Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; y) E7 V' o" ~6 Z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& {4 U t' ^, \9 y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a O: \" r* f; }* k
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 c3 M" w: U vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 A( ]0 t9 p- c1 C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 A) N8 o. d7 n; F! L wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 A" |4 r" L9 V& I: d9 i( X" j1 @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 x4 D: S# G; [3 Y( _7 d& A1 ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. A# A/ d+ d2 U6 r z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 G. e) Y7 K/ Vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, ]; ~5 x7 A3 f' S( T& `; t0 W$ ^$ \of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& \1 m6 l' o- m4 y( g$ vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 g' ?( b# Z! u# y! L! VThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" C, [# s- ]2 r1 G, S% W6 o! B! Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" \, G& S6 Q: D4 I5 kAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( F+ a! l* B$ h1 G) I6 vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ v8 o! ^4 C" E7 j0 | T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 M3 a8 f) U2 ^! U+ o- i
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 H3 Q" `' N u& Z S2 B! }& K9 K# M
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, p( g- q2 g) s9 ^6 _$ Q3 gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. @; G% g; C6 B$ A' M' X6 v
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 c0 O& P5 v$ E( x" c( C* `resale price in February is evidence that past prices: [# v6 y+ S$ W0 N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 f' x: E6 @& E$ c: [" J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; V5 P/ L5 X c" d" L2 a; h
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 i& O& v2 K6 t/ t; A3 v7 m2 w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ ]- f# y& h2 z' }, H4 P
leg down over 2009.
. j4 g/ `3 Y7 k
' a4 N+ s/ z8 w- @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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