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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta/ R7 t# r- |' f& \ S4 m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 q, G- \2 l, u+ r8 [3 W( A/ ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton v% N# N5 L4 g1 Z3 ^( X; a1 g9 c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) P$ v5 I' N" ]2 I+ G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ _: b8 X8 ]/ i% f T- k
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) `6 |2 z- J) ~6 C0 H" Ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 O( j) Z$ n( O: I* t- Uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 K1 B1 f5 [. [- H3 l: {4 h
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 y. f+ `, a# C3 Bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 w! w. }7 J" n) n1 r* Y( oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ m4 P' @, T* n- d H* U eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" Y7 v9 Q' |8 S8 {prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: O D* F7 [: t( d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' q7 {! Q& b U4 J' K! n+ X8 T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
: F0 M, S7 Q0 n8 V& q: p30,000 new households will form in the province during
; o! u& s) ?6 M! H) {2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. ~/ }& r$ T+ R+ ?) TEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) G9 ]9 F; D( h$ d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 A( b6 `: N' Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; W/ \# I' [1 e5 ^8 a6 p2 d8 Q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 X2 a! N1 b( s4 P8 j! p# vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 i& W# q) D6 ~& b D
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; k8 d+ W. @" i! X( s* |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 q( ], j8 C ?3 ~- W; T5 g4 rclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! Y$ y" g% |# H$ r' oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' V2 V% U0 _/ a9 y+ U- _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- _0 e- G! c7 O; _, Z+ ?, _/ Q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 b) T9 a1 V# e- }: D5 _4 Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- t% z! D/ Z6 q0 F2 w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 J( @: t! _; z! A& r' Iunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# Y1 i# e( d* o. Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, n9 Z: B1 `, w! r4 S: Q6 `
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) X1 U: v2 w; q1 B' h+ X% Hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 a, O) i; ^. |- Y) k: L$ i+ A* _. ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 t+ N4 \7 L8 l" L1 l
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
r% @8 k* U! S0 hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# j" N* C: ]. l5 `& s* s6 U% I5 `
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; g" c s. g* B" m9 z+ i. j! y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. b: h E. c s; i, p6 i0 Q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* s7 ?) ^" a( G! s5 m* w
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" ~0 Q. C; K3 O6 ]" y- H9 r
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( z6 M0 C2 @7 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even! t7 z! X/ g% ~( ~9 ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. w! g: P; q- N+ d5 L
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ _* A s6 T7 f* N1 {5 f' |. QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# T- S7 l' |. O) Z& uresale price in February is evidence that past prices- o; P. X* ^' F+ l7 T
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; w/ \8 n2 y1 H9 w& M+ ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 X; r; E: R+ p0 X& N% `% n! p4 r
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% L5 n* N( M! B& S+ s+ m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: n/ f$ z8 X; V) ]
leg down over 2009.
, g. o$ t8 k5 J' ^7 V
3 C! O( @7 o4 \. P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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