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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
: {% h k# m5 L, T% `Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# \ o* e, l8 u& `+ i; Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- q3 K0 k2 A) M6 C( W0 m
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
Y; q4 }+ \ i# h4 }+ B( H2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, J" T. O% _& {9 E& N1 vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( w' G( i" z- w0 M! n- Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, T5 Y2 e9 U. {3 G
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 H* X+ y; X! W+ h" y" {+ L( ?may even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 R& W4 v" d8 O6 F7 ^
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( w. a9 K2 r4 |! |9 {- r4 S, h
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 v5 o% h1 G# e* X4 eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# K4 ]: E9 ^" m7 z+ S9 |prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this! [) l ~! }" a$ e5 q% y/ o
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# J' x8 l0 m% `6 P- Z: lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# G8 c- {3 E; g* t+ [7 c30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 Y. @5 h! w2 t2 `2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* B8 {& n; U- x7 k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& Q( U t, R+ x& x: R: `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) p$ b/ W4 P, g# q+ W O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 g9 X5 }, |+ O. S/ l' M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* S0 F* U2 X/ o( Ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 r3 B# x3 Y V1 @4 wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 p) C, ?8 Q$ }) k- F
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 T# W% `9 N! U* X
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, m( C1 j/ h$ J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 q- I5 n8 v b8 Y( n) S5 {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 @; w9 N: S3 r
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ ]2 Q3 ]& y. l9 @7 U. U
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 H" G. D! A4 w! h: Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) N" |2 N5 K& V& K6 {3 i1 ^, {9 @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 C! O" N; f! K. B& n
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; p2 [; n: m. X/ L: j8 Trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 ^" j, i( f b% V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' }7 T/ O! Q9 \& j$ Q, ]; Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 s9 R- c1 w; g9 vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 ?- a1 a& H& d4 n2 q: C% a$ ~
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ L; [! h" k4 b& q0 d. j( l" FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; ?. m3 X Y, H: M; B
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 F& ^9 K7 E; G8 W" E8 w) aAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan m3 I) e9 J; ]1 N
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" V+ M5 s: x u/ x; o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 c8 @' g; q+ ^- Q2 nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even! g f0 p3 O P' C2 f/ E _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# b' O! B3 D0 B; C
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* A( m. h+ R, a2 g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ s5 n8 _" v. M& u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& R! ~ s: r3 ]2 R# h8 N8 Q sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: w+ \& y9 k5 J( o1 Phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 x, N! h, g6 }/ V0 z5 { Udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," g1 w3 i+ r' x6 T6 Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" D R8 t$ A: A5 M6 _8 i
leg down over 2009.
# R) Y) r( D9 H+ y0 l9 Q g) j% k: K/ V1 [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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