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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.) L+ _7 t$ P4 _1 T3 l9 d

$ p2 a1 y6 W0 q8 ~TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.   f) {6 i2 X# a# Z  {
) ^( Z; X: J% W1 T9 u8 m
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 q: p2 k( w3 G% v* Q" h
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.& V( W& P/ a& a1 w8 k8 w3 `
+ s/ T) J% v* I8 v8 ~7 W3 F3 |
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 6 a* o6 m) Y0 D% ]* d) |

. }4 Q' k8 @) b" i6 dTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., p8 r2 D" d/ e3 I" v( O
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ( W! J( m. A8 E' P: [9 ^: e9 A& D
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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4 Y# t" \& R1 W3 b6 D+ l# sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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5 E/ {+ }) h3 g; Y+ W9 d1 }8 Y3 I! b[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。- V* a7 Z& c3 f9 u( T2 Y
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。$ f+ o( j3 E& T* Y& g& S

2 D/ S8 V0 R1 O[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* n7 n) g2 ?7 r3 B# G1 D5 a' c跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了2 Y0 A& u; l1 r+ U: |0 K, W- p7 ]
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta% D) k' Q! q2 j) i, J, E& ~' y0 H8 n
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* y5 q# ]1 ^0 L8 Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 |+ R0 D3 P6 u+ {2 Q8 }6 g" W7 [+ {5 t3 F
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
! Q  Y  x* B9 [2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 @' F6 ~- V' [6 C8 Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. x, N, I/ J# l- G  d7 a( ~+ ]
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 \' j1 [3 B% c1 f  I/ k& M* t9 Cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. n& x6 B% }' p7 i: l* pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous  b: ~) M3 `3 W* |, [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 r0 z- K% t4 \  `1 \: nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 J' U8 F$ `. c# @, q- t8 ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* x8 X  ~4 m/ X4 W1 Y9 s& q( M' `prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- H6 r; j% \* R) u  H$ y- p
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# w1 F9 H; |. N% g8 s% H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 u1 B( m, Y" E) @* I6 O3 ]# z6 E, E30,000 new households will form in the province during
( Q0 T" t$ |% c4 a2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 ~: w% K8 {5 O# K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 L8 @6 H9 }+ g+ W' \* w) U; l+ whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 W! U9 Y2 ^; hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 x4 P- [: E6 ?+ W+ X( }6 |! W& Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: s& p3 m# e) i3 e% i3 B! l
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 _' Q, S2 |- U5 n' _0 yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" z( I4 F& k( T+ |. wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. E9 Z- M; O3 t: Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 p6 `6 e% _( C# o5 f! _- j5 uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 K( l( P" S9 g( F5 d7 o; o' U* t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# `* [+ b/ @( }% G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 x( M) n3 G# ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 _1 b2 _! P. p: _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ @) B( m. p  F6 }% `6 ^/ I( k
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" N( U* v- N7 q4 s; Z  V6 p
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( ^( ~5 t/ l* h+ B) r0 @( zrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. ]$ Q' O- u/ l8 @
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) B1 z( @2 X% o: w7 V8 h# u1 A; e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( c2 m7 j8 ?  c7 `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- C+ f9 B+ h1 A& K* arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* ^( Q! C$ r( |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" q- q8 x' X/ C, i4 f
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- t3 I) m; j5 vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan" }8 ~; ~6 r% K5 t# v
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ u/ J; C; m/ ?& o. [: trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 a/ q% ~2 l% k8 Q9 l1 Pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
) i5 _. o& t/ A1 `0 R) dthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ G( D3 B3 A* q) d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 n, r/ f4 w5 T. B3 z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' W3 m! {% }2 K2 E0 presale price in February is evidence that past prices2 e" L" H, h: Y3 }$ t
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  \' R5 N' ], i+ w* Q: Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 R  Z& a% }: }) S" ?9 W3 J  U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' q' T/ u/ a3 V( LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) ?0 [+ B6 f" P* Q7 X2 L
leg down over 2009.' X4 c6 m0 W& P0 ^3 X9 X

. O- E' N" B( D( n3 T[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& J/ j$ x6 W2 B7 [1 O6 o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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9 J& q4 ?" [: K  o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ! a  {' {- o" S( x
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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" O4 C5 x9 s; T9 ]" Phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments+ F' G( p% m1 p. k3 T4 e" n8 U

1 J8 t! i. O" G6 _) Q. w8 U! l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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