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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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4 ?3 ~% Q6 [: v1 D7 G5 U+ rTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 y2 x/ n" h% g% {  \( o

: H6 {# }6 u1 R- Z# @: LThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   W0 {9 q* d" j# L3 x
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. & V: T6 J  t6 U- p2 h# e$ D% ~

6 |, T6 H' ~6 n: W+ sNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 b/ Y' O) C% U
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.9 h+ |; X  U+ h1 `2 M
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. " W/ t8 M6 ?$ m: n
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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  p7 z) @  `% G% X% A6 xMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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7 Z7 o. J% i: R4 [' mhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
) h! I% p! W$ u 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
! d4 P1 o, Q9 L2 q, G% t2 k跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了! b  }4 F# T0 e5 X0 F2 r; ~# r
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 z2 m& m9 w  c" @9 }
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 }2 g) D0 F) _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 j0 r! }4 Y0 Z7 i* i2 Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 K! o5 ~) h! L$ L/ N" S2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 N5 W$ N; ^; y4 C0 iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 |7 N9 w4 k9 d6 B) Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 ]9 T4 \4 A. f" Z- b) D* l6 |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- j! W5 N' D: ?3 f5 n8 V* D8 k
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! u' H( C% E8 Z3 Z7 mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' A/ q% e# L1 a4 G( `precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ F, b3 D( r$ e$ N, `" r( U
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. W, R  A: I, g: ?# h' M$ D9 w! lprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 z, L. r5 ?6 n8 Z6 }" y; ^! ?* Nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ p! T" p# l3 r( [. `; w8 w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& f# X2 S; I% n: T
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* |9 G: \5 ~% M+ u: y. Z8 B) b7 E& f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 w+ w8 l0 X& |) [1 M8 x2 _
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, D+ C% C, Z9 U/ Q# chomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 V, Z0 m3 U/ yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! [: j8 j5 [/ _4 b; j# x0 V
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 V2 \- i8 t8 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ m( C: \1 y2 sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, `3 g# n7 O' ^  A2 v( Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  Z* H' I/ n2 U0 k! t9 E8 Eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: B& J; U! S& ~& \6 `- H& d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; T; _0 `/ Z$ r  u/ C. g
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 k% `1 f/ j# O  F/ _sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: n8 y; ^" R/ T/ }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ C% w- W7 j3 h0 v7 m4 K+ h# K6 ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: ?! I1 t1 f/ N9 S3 S
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 t4 M) X: x. ]
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 m  ?* Z2 z! u5 p3 I
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; }7 C5 c$ [. r
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 m9 j7 Y0 e; P( m# ]( N4 i: y9 T" p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 f! `3 d  c+ M- R8 N) _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( u& E* ?/ d3 y3 Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 J1 U6 z. n' E! c2 G
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 v; @2 @  \- m: w: A) u+ f0 ?6 [
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 s, c; {# w$ D5 ?1 V6 i4 QAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
" F. o% u/ g* d0 C+ R7 uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ o3 e' w1 l5 c4 Y+ z9 _' Z- Yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 e& [- d  a, \* a+ |! a% J+ A; Y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: Q/ b# ~) I4 N  M+ K2 w, ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# q/ D& D. g/ |6 A0 ^0 aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# Y5 x+ z; b" X7 F6 c0 M1 {8 B
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" L3 b' ?1 n0 S/ f6 |: z* ]# ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices6 e! ~. t5 s* |
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) o# I1 Z0 X1 a+ |8 n7 U) fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. Q4 N% W- Y% Y7 N
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- t+ z1 r1 v/ N4 j, V  `* yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; V1 N. t  e/ F5 m) j1 @6 l
leg down over 2009.# u5 ~7 F+ P- B2 j9 A/ ]5 B
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 ~8 a& m" M( D" \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. # d$ W7 X# D. X2 k8 `- o
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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