埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2284|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 {: b* ?. m. l1 j5 _
" z2 W  f/ M! C% X- X7 f7 s
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . [$ }/ @1 b1 ~' m6 f+ H, P( V. P. P
* w- k6 M6 }1 K+ `
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
! u1 g5 f- c% q  i5 @5 G
& n6 }4 b9 Y, u- A"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # N6 N3 U, M' H# q
5 n$ B$ X9 ^% I# P" y2 i
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
3 N' t2 S4 [; P% ^* q2 r
8 `* N7 ^' o2 ~) M3 \TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
7 \- R5 F8 y4 j6 m& x+ c5 ~" ?
0 _$ X  U+ |( R) f( B) |! K0 C"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 0 T4 a/ Y; e8 _0 q

* T$ I' T, U- O0 Y$ H7 ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 l6 X" g5 G4 a

: Z) G+ M) @; s7 LMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
( r3 t. i" }( O' n, {; F: m( H" z. n( X  y0 Y* |# z* ?% i
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
% k& _+ q& I) b) S( b

9 ]% D+ o5 i1 A1 C+ KTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,  N2 e! J6 G" c0 p0 H% J
: v' \2 m0 G7 ?
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
) S( ^: z6 i/ J3 b& H- D+ d 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
" a8 [1 Q) d* ~& ]- c. ^
8 S) A- p( j4 x' h. M0 b8 |[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 : y: F$ R+ ?3 E
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
! o! U2 j" [' ~) e+ y, B8 O" c  {
很多人都回学校深造去了1 o& G( Z+ [( L2 ~. o
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ k7 D2 D% @" v7 s+ G; l5 W( w
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* P. C. @# H* Y3 H1 D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- c6 E+ r6 `: d* ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, i: w2 X3 h' K
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 s3 S' W0 K7 F8 I  `4 a, P# y6 F( ^+ fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ I; z3 ?+ I+ w) b( t! Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- q( o" I& Y! H) L$ f  Xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  a# c' S% i+ o3 d! N' n) ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% t! J% g! ?" n+ r: W
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( d3 R6 E! }$ E! F" G2 }1 _8 i+ e! c
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined  U: G' t+ ?6 |- {& s. V) G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- d4 T- _% }. o( t, U* Y% J6 tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, c6 }! G5 i( F! h
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ n4 c( z0 K; u. m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- s# S& U0 \4 I) t; I% F8 g
30,000 new households will form in the province during2 T6 X5 Z8 O8 A" N$ e2 g' ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., h5 h% G- Y# C; V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 T* i. p% j7 G7 H% Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 A: K" }: C( I/ m! K8 N1 q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 H5 X# i1 r) Z5 V! Shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: l2 G$ h4 I- ~$ f/ h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 u5 g$ i) K- D" p  G) Y8 [during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" r4 B7 X% i/ n8 d4 a4 Y) d8 ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" i$ M% }$ u2 |* a9 R- s8 x
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 c# ?8 L* e5 _0 {) aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# p$ M6 K6 S) J2 d1 E1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) k# D! A/ U* q' d: l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  E- D4 \2 b3 G9 @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) J( Q) n) N" U9 ]two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. ?# ?% C/ ~) R! }  lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* ]* J, ~4 B( O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ A4 Z$ _6 t; p& b: P9 brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% ~0 }! }- l+ H. P9 m$ x
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, E: j8 t8 _* N2 m2 S
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. |; B3 I6 c9 Q6 q2 |9 X5 {' {
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* o5 e2 U: m, h; E. |8 j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; H$ C+ c% Q9 h/ q- {5 U2 u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! c: d, J9 i# X/ @3 y6 d# {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 R/ f1 {* m: }" q; z3 _, i
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 x' v2 B2 }4 j6 V5 D' P5 f$ S; c
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: |2 q& S3 P2 Irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& Z8 P7 l) f& |+ [9 Q# b" T! a
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 [# f; y! r0 X1 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners  P1 Y% D% H4 B: W& e6 |' @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 P! {8 J/ ?+ K$ E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ u# V% \' n% T- i) q1 `  ~0 O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, J, k/ S3 E- t; Oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  p& j7 a$ m1 v' `# \homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 ~# N+ q+ v+ F+ h+ k
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ a. T# {. h' J$ xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! S' }0 D/ r# z! V" {+ t6 ]leg down over 2009.9 L; v/ @' A- F- t4 \

0 j% j4 _( V! T" U* N0 N5 e2 f: q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 ~7 Y, X, s- `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
( U( N: _! T# ~1 Y  W0 M: X

3 f5 Z" Z9 K' N2 f. ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. " P4 s5 b7 A- Z; Y8 m& S
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
/ w5 Q( B" W8 j( }2 b8 U. R/ W* ]; r- Z0 ?1 |( \7 ^+ `
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
! ]- y) K9 Z, B
$ Y) ^0 r. J" m  W7 S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-26 18:05 , Processed in 0.346861 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表