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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
  w5 c, s+ C6 t3 q# A' f' I3 T& o% @- m: H2 k$ [! m8 e
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   W; J% {6 e* k" ?9 i$ g
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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% G8 Y0 O# E8 R$ H/ y* ^5 kNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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  F6 s' U2 f: K9 lTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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  x' n# x* x, S( j" V' d0 W4 p"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., [0 j, l$ V" N4 `

1 ~0 l% I% f' U$ wMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. * S. c1 X1 c+ p
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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  b) G$ P2 b$ F) sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,( u3 `  L8 W& w+ ]3 w& Q

% I! ^( `' P$ w4 N7 x[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。) K1 K/ o7 b% B4 C9 ?
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" Q& M; a5 M! |7 X4 ^[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
6 b4 u) D; J2 O- z% _跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

0 h' z- N7 I. l  ?7 j, D很多人都回学校深造去了  o9 G! ^# L2 S) v+ r
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
+ N3 N% q$ ^3 k- V$ F8 ?: A5 xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 w" c6 O6 M( A' i- w" W$ C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 s- z' @% s8 l% N
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 f4 w  I( q1 B( r2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! }$ X" _/ N+ Y# t0 J% L8 _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. h+ |/ R# }* U: g- A  J3 N* qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. G$ x! F/ ?: D/ nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 {9 K4 v9 V# E  q  w" r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& j8 k6 w) r  q2 ?  e& _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 x. m2 M. T- m8 N$ {; r
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ Z- y, q% {  G* b9 C$ Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; u: L! e! `3 B8 \: L% Z; tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 L* n% V. F# i
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: t1 z6 H, @4 L! A0 mhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ y4 H; [7 `  B0 v6 d! M30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 F* g# Z7 F2 Y" \( o* A0 d2 o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 D1 E: h7 Y3 \Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s. ?2 \9 f0 M, H# k# F8 p2 T
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 z1 U9 \& ~3 \! c( d* }
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 G* i/ \1 T. e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 r) [, F5 t0 m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, b) s) R" j* D/ {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ }7 B. \! v: {1 I6 L$ [+ M# l& e) @! |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, p! s  n$ m+ X/ `- U* D
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 m0 J& Z& L9 ^7 vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 o# c7 l" r1 u" e" y$ ?' O1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' Y. N4 J% k% r) A+ f
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 z9 k# R- v1 o7 [) I" }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# W# R. L0 i  F9 p7 D
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- v  E- ?& z+ s" G5 Z2 C3 u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( ]7 C8 w0 p2 I5 v. o2 W- ]4 K
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  D9 ^6 N$ L, q, g4 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) H! I  L* h3 p7 [0 d( T  @2 e, |
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
  D7 s1 U# f# |! n6 @, Y5 vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! O5 v0 [+ V0 a/ X) p, @of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ p7 g% N' I( a) n5 c6 ]rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- A6 v9 a% @0 t- e: _" N4 S
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- L4 h( H5 n: S! {- A
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 N8 v# ]8 W4 v- C3 V% K) {( U$ h& Z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; v* O0 e6 V# S4 B
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% Y$ U9 \* W/ t* X, m0 yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" [5 r1 Y( k- {prices substantially eroded affordability and, even  t6 W" \# ~' a; Z6 j. E& r0 W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 m4 t$ f; l/ K7 _6 l* `
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. o- L7 T+ l# }6 r/ d7 Z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 R( T! b$ g1 j" M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' t" v" p' M2 x$ W' r; A0 n6 L% r; mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 S: u" C: o8 ^% b; V8 ~
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 Q$ z1 P7 t6 T2 }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," t5 D5 L) Z5 r4 S; P4 n" h$ M7 }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  @2 \0 ~% F1 v/ Jleg down over 2009.
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; ~8 `9 c* ^* N% c* k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% a8 L/ K+ M4 G% L# f  D& a/ f, ^$ m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, V7 U3 q' y( w8 j翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 b4 ]- f1 H# _4 M" S3 d

; C. O% o3 P6 L4 Ahttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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