埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2611|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
8 O  J1 S+ E# z" W9 M- V# j. Q( `8 z+ ^- v6 p3 c$ b, X# ^6 K
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
) @# v6 _/ M- v7 Z0 R+ d( Z0 c
) l0 p) G5 Y( C0 v2 k/ h+ |The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. : B' z: G( F6 ]
" _" \' [# M" ^9 D  `
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
, }7 H9 k5 F6 d; q% G( B) y
0 k. i8 P, i: ~6 n) g; n6 `3 nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* B) x1 }$ |! \9 [
" V1 C- I/ K4 i( n7 z& l
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- W2 ^4 N2 _2 p+ O$ j

& K! z" t% P+ W* h' g  N6 r"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. * }' `* k3 S. n7 {7 ~
; P' a, X0 p+ @4 j- n0 _
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.+ u7 k5 d' O: ]: a6 f# ~
- |: n( n" E. ?* g3 T) I
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - I( U4 G/ p4 m; D2 P8 H; a& r
: G- i9 ~+ D6 M2 D
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
- J9 z# S8 w9 G1 k7 L! F- M
1 F; n" {6 _2 v; j* E
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: G6 ^* d- A$ x% I8 c: H5 }6 ~

5 R  g: Z& C  l$ W0 V9 T$ Y[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  C* }& f" \; y; G 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! O2 N, u2 R+ e% C% V9 e

& e, J, r% }% K3 g$ D9 F, Z[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ! y3 i' ]: J) P4 n
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
+ y9 a7 |" I4 N  V
很多人都回学校深造去了
/ w" T& v& f, B* [$ C2 C嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
9 i' A+ d3 ^8 y/ q) H2 DWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 a8 s$ l* g; N# D& l. tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 t( S) T- T& Vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% c( Y7 C, y, v$ ?: `$ Y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% d( Q8 e! z9 R1 {formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. a& `7 k# b6 D. a7 S
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* s) R- i) c6 a# `2 F' Uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) u  V2 W. v6 P$ X/ D4 o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) T) W( s( S. U( A6 x( u9 n) Q# D+ q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% F8 V. ?2 ?( ]( k+ kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ a: B# O% w- H4 }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 i" ?- Y' b( o" nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) i$ L2 G8 Y/ V: T! e2 \: Vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% H( [+ \1 y9 F1 e; r
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. `- g3 {9 _1 z: ~* \7 l
30,000 new households will form in the province during  }3 [/ d& Y! T3 a7 w- O
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! M0 {( ^; t; h% i/ sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 ?" R  T% y/ q! i7 D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: J+ }( s; D! }- J, {% {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 D( [0 B6 e# E5 E
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ L- [9 z  _8 N, q; h( ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) ]8 z: j9 R( [! k2 w1 }) {% L/ ^# X& `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 V! G2 w7 D. A9 R: Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 n' ^( a0 S; T, Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 C5 B. Y& q+ S) [5 p2 V
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  v7 ^; R7 \, e( R$ h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 ]8 i7 l5 G  dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 Y5 l* T/ |, @# p2 T' {/ J* K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% N- p$ C; r, L( K1 Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 |+ `- V/ c- s" f/ [+ A
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, A. {$ y. U& V( J% d
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ Q3 C" O7 R: |' s; w: R9 irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( c7 E* f% w7 q. {$ _$ Y* t; w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' N  x) Q, N! Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) m7 o, D4 ~, D: |  W
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 ?0 i/ j. l+ }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: s$ _' u) r, N* ?0 Z$ YThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ I$ F, J* B9 x! e- H% @9 Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.  ^& M9 b! B" r& F3 y: m8 x  w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan. @5 u0 f, v, X0 r& s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 l4 F8 j% r, p# k- [4 O* C- rrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- U  [- I3 o( r
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even( T( {/ ]" b; O, G; `, n5 J
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 S  V/ E+ E8 I2 [+ ?; s- d" j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& ]7 w) L6 J$ N
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, P3 l9 r% Q% Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices' o8 G# P4 t  y0 R  j
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ m$ {) y2 ^! w, \
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 B$ k& B  I- r- m
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ A$ [) c& O. ]' E2 NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ {5 Y6 E* i; v) A) ^5 M
leg down over 2009.3 A- M' N! ^9 f# Q9 ]

2 e* f* G, i# x; a! Q+ e! c" p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; R- K. P2 z$ o& B5 G+ g/ i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
! J! l- m) n" j8 r/ C  m' B6 Z

6 c" p. d" g& _5 ]3 X& m# d- ?- q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
& N3 x' S4 ]2 s% @' R翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子# o) }1 O; c$ u. D

& A$ x2 [, m% Y0 [http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments) k9 P8 c) [& ^2 q3 C. X3 @
' t, v1 R5 ]$ ]; u% r9 u* s
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-7 19:53 , Processed in 0.205334 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表