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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 m( [( [! N" E6 S6 E1 S
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
6 e- \9 S% q9 O; r0 a* Y5 _
/ O, C4 D( j; E& PThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 2 a! i7 i3 M! O
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 7 X0 z" A& D/ N! \. R3 w4 o( @

8 p; O# q" u2 I* Z8 j/ VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 f$ @- U( \  c' K+ ?
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ m. F) J7 l5 \
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ q8 O- ^) E8 q7 ~) q
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.8 ~2 f7 m/ y. W, }6 r3 E
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 ~# q7 X" D, c. }/ G

' ]& J  V/ n5 Nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,3 A, m$ }. m/ I  ^! ~! d9 s8 W
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。0 V3 Q2 l; A& O, I- h
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。: ?: A! W# C* {' j- n# y

+ Y2 K+ `+ L+ l# M5 M  @[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
6 `+ a. [. P- B# L2 [跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, F9 K2 Z9 D& z4 W很多人都回学校深造去了( `9 N* ?4 W, W6 o5 h
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta9 m- w5 u5 c2 H& M0 y' O, W
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" b' F" F  P' Y& M& X5 h. g3 D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 a, D' ^1 K" Q. Z: i$ c% ?3 f, M1 Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 a" Y- L9 z( J) N5 @$ u$ @
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. o' `5 ~: N# z' X4 D9 B* [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided5 r# `5 d; ^# h" M4 o
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( p) J% u& j4 p8 p
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 ~6 k; m5 g" g; `$ I
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- ?% h, o$ z: n8 Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 K" G9 S# U# |0 M
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 a7 m! i8 |: @. ]$ Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 R  j% }7 ^2 m2 ~$ b4 g1 c2 p! R4 Q% Gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ s+ k( n+ C& P1 W6 b9 s: Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. V! @3 [% v6 f) h2 }homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 ~# K* c6 S7 D. s, [; |% L/ {' E30,000 new households will form in the province during
, G/ \0 J: J( K' y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* L6 a- i! k; B2 c+ xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" _. O5 H& s( h* C) c' a
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 |7 `* N& J% B2 V$ M( y
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 |! q: N! H4 W. E- w: K1 C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ ]3 ^& O  M1 r0 D/ ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' R& X! s9 G  R, t1 s. I( R+ @during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% |9 b9 A" [, G2 c% D% [
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' a* K4 i% D' b! y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- L+ P4 T1 ]& R" q( s. Jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ F( z  H% S% e; e3 k: k$ r, F1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ z" d; c5 }3 E3 ]! A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 c3 I' M8 [5 t# t6 kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ W) l2 G, W- D  [two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; [8 N5 b5 C- F( N# x8 |unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 d+ R6 ~; H2 J" I
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; C4 G: N" u6 O9 `9 Z. R# U
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the  J' i4 D) f5 W3 |! J) Q0 S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 `2 u; y8 m, V( e# T+ z* D( V3 w8 wmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% e' G+ |6 V$ F- P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ v/ m& a6 |& n3 \rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 s) \" u/ R& s& e% g3 t0 y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& t. D+ p3 R# A  C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 C& v" A/ h+ T2 ~4 O) w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ H3 \4 D2 O2 X: f3 n% U/ `  e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. q# I( W# t/ E5 J/ q* }
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! \3 a3 f; j7 P- Z3 _
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 Y% f$ [2 h4 @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- D+ N  s0 L* {8 _4 e$ D
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." X- v1 H' l6 g2 a9 a
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 C7 E8 t# b+ v; Z! z- ~* Y6 kresale price in February is evidence that past prices  i% A# t) w- H# U8 b* t8 J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' W/ e4 A. {6 G8 o$ v) Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% \( `" A2 J' v2 [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ }: t$ P4 ~4 c2 L: SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 X: s1 f5 o$ q* |! n
leg down over 2009.; C1 }3 @% F: {( c' v' `
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( [4 m; e/ L; J! h  B  t6 BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   _2 ^$ a- v" ?  T6 [( H
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ q/ e+ v. O8 X( G6 Q

4 g/ w1 B% V0 U9 u* o! h1 {http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments* M. n4 C9 Q. x) c$ E

1 G; t( u. a! p" |: L, u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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