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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
( i1 I; a' j5 s! G, \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# F& O- C, v5 r! m2 X1 u3 q2 g
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- a, `% Z+ K' o- [/ c% s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ \: J. {5 R; _3 M- q, p; `1 a
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. f- P6 b9 a, S" B+ F* E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ @2 H# e0 a7 ` E; D( x; U8 lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) U$ c6 D3 Q# R8 E. sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 h! I; a9 V- dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* K/ Z7 ]6 P/ Q0 ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% o4 c4 j! w6 o O( o' o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& c3 G8 O2 O: o0 S5 U) B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, B) n5 d X: o2 a9 V3 q, V! \ n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; u7 p. r2 y5 P) V. B
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ }1 Q- P& S2 k% ~1 \. N- G& E* j! Y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% h6 v4 i5 F4 A5 j# T* Y) P30,000 new households will form in the province during( U# Y. p3 h4 ?4 ^& T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ P+ e8 @* B: q m4 j. C1 v* hEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' K F1 `, T9 S: d6 v. Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) A; S5 h. l4 Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: E+ `2 r; L& ?/ A5 Yhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* Z# e: q7 x$ ?( g
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 O V* ]. l$ ^$ c* j+ o
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# c! x% [" } [7 ?, y9 D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: \% Q+ F9 k* u3 U2 V+ k! J( n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. O$ q' z) X: B$ v, Q1 H
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 x* m( x' u4 f! \# ?& A1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- i" c& N- j! L) F" z7 K3 K
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 c" L( b, {: T$ O9 A# dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; v, h5 G9 j( G; U. ?9 B! F; D1 j' }two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. Y- p7 V i' h/ n, [) N# T$ Ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: P% ?' P( m4 c r/ k; }) v! iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
S* q" _/ i0 I" W `* Jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 I* J: Z+ {0 o' v( d/ p6 n/ h
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. Q& @ H0 Z' v9 Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 j, H8 X6 } e' w. V4 W4 yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 G6 C3 c; x; E3 U6 a" p% m$ a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% `! `# i0 G# x0 n& M% N) G" _' LThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, o5 y- |- _; S* Q' vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., {4 ]+ Y/ w' L; a) \3 _( Z/ q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) ?) C2 G, Y4 @7 m) ~* g# Vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ E5 ?# q, Q: f) Z. x
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 x" h( h, p. ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 v D' ~; c/ n8 T, N. L# k
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 M/ X B# r/ f3 O0 X3 R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ V: r7 k" S& P) [( uThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: o( @& @4 H/ V/ V4 T3 i- l: u# Z4 x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ h5 i" V3 P8 j; T% A p% qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 |8 z: W' v% c$ W, V) m
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ j K; |. R7 ~7 b" w0 X1 `
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 q6 N' U8 |. pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! u* t1 @1 ?0 }- Q; | _. h7 eleg down over 2009.
' x5 f! J: ]! O q2 c( H
! e3 S& e5 }5 W7 ~, Z2 r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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