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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta3 s- o, G+ g( V: B; ]5 T- J! X- W5 F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
d) ^6 Z6 E- q7 N: y9 Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; n7 ^! u/ `+ Sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; v1 B4 l4 f9 ]! I2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& o& I1 f! Q% s. ?$ [formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided$ X2 ^6 \9 Y; q+ z- L* Y; d. m% B8 w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. L8 V: M, ?1 ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 s% z5 ?4 K+ L8 [8 Vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 u3 y' r G- J0 T; E: Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ `: }# B+ ?; S0 D4 C% P4 ^/ N0 }precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
H3 k( F# _" }9 F C6 u; ?to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; s+ N( c4 L/ \. e+ ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) c1 k4 U2 B* t4 D1 }% R7 Hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ I; ?) x$ h/ }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& T7 F3 o/ Z% e2 Z30,000 new households will form in the province during
S" D& L; n" S4 m& N7 ]9 |2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) a3 u) C5 Q1 w# ^, } f! q/ O
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) V0 t( ?5 s+ k' Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; K" Z. P+ d* G/ h2 {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) g" }9 N# k, w, o C3 Jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 e$ R1 ?, g% shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 f. X. X8 Q9 D3 Y, q) kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 N$ I) w+ v) E! i5 |- Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. r: J+ G8 ]) _% _8 ~, U6 X, n" Y/ o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 ]+ T: ^$ u3 \: o$ O) P
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ x" |" G+ X9 w8 l k0 K
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 `# D; p% z" @& j0 ~& Q2 x, z0 I
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
`; y; \) @* z7 f; C `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ B0 r7 j9 t: N% b$ c. stwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 A/ h$ r3 Q% q( B ?unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 i, G8 o! y+ I9 Y9 C8 L5 k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 H' M: O- Z% r' h3 Y4 b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! O" l/ n3 B$ j3 uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 h* z+ j8 h: ~3 ^% {2 L# F, C+ y: \1 Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- ]1 u; L3 u8 p6 v F, kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 F) h9 P8 y0 \7 s0 |% C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 `- m2 p. N( A- T: i6 e
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ a# k, f( ?9 dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 {! J. e- P1 |8 T
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& s$ i2 c; B* M$ H! Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 b- g& r! m0 N0 a; A- L2 |
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 S |& y/ F. L8 Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: c) r6 x8 ]& s( O7 J3 cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( U8 E7 o+ k" N. V! z5 Q0 r" V* P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 j. N% M: W$ L0 iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 R n# H9 j3 p' M3 I6 z3 \# h/ j" Presale price in February is evidence that past prices
# i. P% ^5 H) [, u9 k8 T; \exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 G2 f7 h9 @" B, B k+ k! {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& R, q" Y( a. A' e3 w: K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) V9 E* f/ j. t; i1 L6 F2 p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% I: F9 b! u" A: ^ uleg down over 2009." r2 r* h( l, ?# p0 m* n7 T* w
9 b0 y, f$ j% y2 ~4 @. b
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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