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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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. p0 _) K+ O: L4 w. O4 @$ n6 n5 K+ ?The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 2 b+ U# a/ ~- c* a6 J9 X5 E
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' y( Y( V' {3 [' d' x& T% ?
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.4 O8 A8 T4 x, V6 U

+ @6 [0 G1 W3 o/ MTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.7 u0 }# l" N+ R0 W
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. * n3 \: z3 r3 ~% b6 J
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.! g% n% E! z" C8 {6 W7 z8 c1 V
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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! K! _/ \) P. b. ~! K" p& Ohttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

6 w0 [7 E, K0 t3 |  }  c" h
6 y( h4 L  h- k5 b0 C5 i2 sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,* ~4 ^) B  i0 [, W. B

" b, b6 k' `$ D3 @4 k[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。3 b6 C0 s$ B; }7 `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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+ f: h) J9 n& r[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# t+ J' L5 S; q5 o) _跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; d' k. \5 N: B: @' C% Y) a6 X很多人都回学校深造去了' `; r3 o  E5 p* R
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
. I2 d3 t# b0 n1 I1 r& ]Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  U! w! {3 j( @. `+ |2 L' _0 Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 Y$ {: i9 f2 ]8 J( z: O! Rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 V  V  Q0 y5 M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& n  j+ p4 B" l( o6 J* h  s. \: T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, F# L1 z8 I& tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 R7 q- D2 D* Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" s) i" r0 q- p) w% [3 Q$ B+ H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ h& Q, u7 N" E4 d! ?% B( T
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& u' O- B* [' R/ B6 _3 Q" iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
: S2 s5 C2 g$ Q/ y% I) _+ Qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 S* F9 f& z2 v# _7 d7 X0 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 G' \% _1 d8 g4 i0 N
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# k4 s) O& }/ \- p# B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# j' _9 y7 I2 f% d30,000 new households will form in the province during1 m+ B( I) D! w+ P* b5 x8 J6 s. c8 H# n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( J# J; D& }$ K6 l1 @
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 h+ g4 N/ |% I1 B- t* L
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 t( V7 R; o( f. N2 Aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 _! `$ h8 `' W8 s% S- n$ D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 D4 N9 p4 A9 J9 C! _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' a" r! B+ K2 I7 I4 x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 P+ _3 y$ I8 ^& H1 Y. rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, f/ E  |, J  @" }, Mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! S, }, B6 T% V2 j- ]  o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 q4 Y( A* `2 X- W7 \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) M4 P; H% c8 M8 q. S$ a+ n- w, E
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. |/ O: n( L7 j% n$ l( }8 i% ?6 hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in" P- ?$ ~4 _7 h( H9 O, S6 j+ f7 d
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 K& W* F7 F0 y. O. ^! j5 _
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# w7 D4 @! p% ~- J- C1 iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ O" T4 V2 S; D0 Q( J; B0 u9 Z& j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, ~' c8 [) t9 ^6 ?+ p* i
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ _- g* V, c/ q8 E$ e, }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 L% Q0 v# Z. V+ @% G2 {of new singles, and, with demand having cooled" l, l, V- v2 M; F; E. s8 L; {* X% e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. u( |" u% ]' V, ~8 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, U6 f% ?" {2 i+ ?3 ?boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! t* A& K  f/ f2 k3 b" GAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 y$ k) Q. f7 A+ r, ~+ b& `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; a$ V  u8 @+ `8 Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  ]. t5 [" q  x3 Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 H; ~0 o  E6 V  z( h. u/ F: y- C; ?
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! S& Y; S, K' ]) ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ i6 O$ z$ J  l: dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) W4 t& n+ e/ `% o- [  {" \# Y$ t
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. k% }1 y7 C, Q  k8 A- k5 Xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) \2 c  t$ R& C# W( M
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) n  i; ?. G8 r$ T+ G* g# }! F9 V% wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 l" @0 i5 e0 m  q7 u: I
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ y  B% ^8 w) y9 K7 \' k1 Z2 R7 U  jleg down over 2009.
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2 _' d" k/ s+ ]6 O: c% Z* [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( V% ~5 z" F7 O' H- i& SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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, Z" J* p- V# k, Q9 \9 b# `- j; Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 Q6 W' T1 \( t& T5 c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 j+ z4 a$ }0 [3 n+ i6 r

$ P; P  D$ V. c" D- ?  Q+ O* ohttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments' m7 ~& i3 J3 U* K* X" G% P9 j

+ C4 j/ v' V  o) j9 x) A' ^& x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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