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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 5 P- E  L; g8 p

- s/ t: l4 ?/ Q, pThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 7 F0 _" V3 R! ^+ o  z
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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# p5 \2 e1 N8 cNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller., i& g5 a. [) j# M5 R# S
& a$ m* ^- h- [' f, J! z! I- L
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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7 Z- Q& ]' |# w1 S7 o+ F, ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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# u! ~! }) `; `, n: K2 [http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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5 f! s# b  O- {6 y3 T8 `' C[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ H9 L" L. i+ v0 B 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , h$ |' K3 y9 x9 }" T
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 O. H1 M! f) _" e2 n很多人都回学校深造去了
6 \* {4 g( N1 r' h6 w/ Y' T) F嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
* \- s" c, n1 J9 ~* ~& fWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ z. K) K0 o# Fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 s4 P1 p* c3 Y" D, ]
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
9 h; W9 [: s* t7 t8 z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* o1 [" r. {: }2 S; ?1 A6 |/ E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 p* |/ w0 U" D7 s- Q3 r- e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 q1 I, V$ r1 O9 ^' j- t
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* i( i* o/ D  I) e* S' m
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* g+ U* K- F: m* m' K8 R- f/ {
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 M- T. c+ U7 O8 B0 P# Y
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" M: j+ c! C  W- ~! V  Bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: A' S1 X8 {  K& V- Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& ~$ P2 ], Z9 ~) yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; w* F! g+ c% S: L, c; i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. {0 _- z: H( u5 x3 {30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 K$ v- n4 B0 H6 T6 F2 e2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 |; Z4 V" a! E! D5 T0 I# a
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ N3 o" c" k, S7 T2 H: |homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' p' Z3 w2 q+ y
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 L; M8 {* v0 T) v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& a  j* s- V$ J6 }! u* `# g: qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 I5 W7 r6 |# Z# L6 e3 `+ I
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; H9 b; Y0 |! L; P) W& l5 Q" h4 u: S
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: E- `" Z2 u7 F- P$ i, N9 R' c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* J* h8 F3 o& X8 M- {1 `
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. S7 u" M2 y! E7 T9 A) x
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 O7 _- i1 z6 o7 @9 \# d& }8 N5 p7 d7 zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% n% D$ k( v- Y1 b+ S( t! Qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 b! h" _( r& C# j2 T1 m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# p6 ^/ l* a( ]% G! m" wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ ]: U# _- i4 u+ Z6 z  j1 }unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* {2 R! {, ?/ r0 r# s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: E: H) j' i  B' M6 g+ l$ `
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 w5 D, x5 [9 p9 z& `
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% g5 D6 K  N1 G$ j, f! q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled) J# a' G% ]5 c6 ]% H! ~/ z9 u5 S
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% ?6 y2 i7 b: s" T( M; D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 P( D1 c1 X! P  q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 v8 l! f4 c8 y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( a& A1 z( z6 @6 E! M1 l+ bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& e% `2 M9 x. S7 G( ?0 D: V! S+ j% c
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: h0 t5 b  J$ _3 N1 \) e+ s5 aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( J+ d: S9 A" i: z0 z/ @! V, x& F
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! {* Z! D& ^5 s  h$ I0 hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 Y1 `0 @7 l, X0 `1 iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- L& f. h' G, t" tresale price in February is evidence that past prices2 U3 \! i2 R! j7 b9 Z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& f) ]8 G1 w9 l+ y0 mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: e, }5 w, A0 d( }# {- Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," M# G6 d, i1 |4 y+ q- h& ^
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# y! ^5 j/ y9 _! C: S
leg down over 2009.
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1 K, v  u! P$ R% G8 R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, a9 v, E4 @: j* l! `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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- B8 T3 Z: @9 l3 F. J  [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, W/ s( e; a- w翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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  l6 K) o0 P6 G6 w1 ?; U$ ~( Whttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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3 a, p2 z+ c6 {, u1 N0 F1 \- Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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