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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 T6 @( N) Z- t: P' f3 T+ U/ R
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ r' @2 A; z k9 |5 E( Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. C: i( j& R* _
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ [5 I' V& G& G. `7 h: [5 I9 f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
B" q5 [, ~! A2 }- cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) L/ B1 F" |3 S! J$ t Z; H( R4 mfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 a" ^0 ^: u* t' J# u2 R) dthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# L9 T; Q0 O; _. m: q! W1 y/ A( Z5 dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 ~+ Q: b, y! `8 _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 C" @7 l1 ~; g4 y, vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 ^9 y- i; r7 S' {/ P8 ^( A
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) ?' E. ]* ~1 U- {; eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 F8 e: h( s8 X1 E# S$ Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# \8 _3 V4 D$ M; h6 C# Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: E5 m7 ~. K+ m0 q. _
30,000 new households will form in the province during' T. F# g, q Y2 l0 X$ X- t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 v0 n# J% F; A) e( }* |! a! _Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 S D# q2 ^" S Lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ O4 R. \( M- o6 Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% a% M/ s, A6 J. \9 Y Fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 Y: @1 ]( B$ U- U! b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& L. d* L, W. e1 Q, w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; a4 I) @' M: g! G0 d! G( ~sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; F& F) T/ Z+ [) k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 {* @0 \/ Y" d, Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 N+ {; D. l( o# _6 x+ |' v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 p6 ]/ K0 I/ a+ M4 g
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 B+ p6 G, [- A1 Z2 ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& e4 P U* {) l% r6 m- Jtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- `0 Q+ ]( F cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
l8 J0 F- f9 ?/ g' ~unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% U# H$ [* ]5 g+ rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 J: C2 I# C, \# ?/ j( U* D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
J6 ?+ F/ A$ r% S; ?2 t7 ?major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 y" X) \9 Z& q& A9 @
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 n j/ Z* y1 _5 b: r( I
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 {' y+ W* C7 I, C( k+ \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( @$ s3 t9 Z& G( O7 U/ m. hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) f2 H$ O; t) U. Z+ dAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! K3 A! L5 ^+ A1 ]+ B
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 s0 H( Q# r- hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
L! t; P3 P/ H* P0 S$ c" Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ H7 [* n' e; `8 @4 Q$ J" ?9 x( S
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 P2 A" o* _! ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
n7 ]9 X% f# l8 sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ J& M) t$ s* c- s# W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# ]1 X! n" W- @# V7 j: G3 j3 pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" K& `2 ?, p6 ?; @6 G. e8 s: w- N
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! _1 a9 G, ]1 d4 P
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 y/ [8 \5 ]( W5 @7 R; z7 m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 s7 I5 g# k( R5 F9 |/ y4 f8 u
leg down over 2009.- W {" l0 m* }3 @/ Z
' v7 D% ` J5 J5 B7 m
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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