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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. I$ l) B) j4 }4 k0 zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# _0 h" f4 K) t6 R- \& x( a. A: h2 X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 R/ c% L8 x; a+ z( s* f0 Q" u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; r- u g, w: q+ t( |& p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' G% `6 p' H' H4 Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 Z# {- @% D$ o* E/ H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 d8 |% D' t- X3 G$ @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 I: j5 \8 l* z( s, Y- Hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 H9 U# x) Q! @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, \) j1 q! s( a3 \1 j8 x
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 ^- j# o* C8 O+ K0 V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ d1 ` A/ B5 W N+ c4 @
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
S0 D7 D# `6 z. P R/ Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* \8 T1 U: I4 e) N/ z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 }/ O) x7 f# O# Z, @' A
30,000 new households will form in the province during- l0 p8 _5 k" w0 R% K; k& A# a, w* `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# i0 |" O+ T0 UEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 y5 g h+ v+ @$ m; O# q9 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 x1 k/ m) T- }% p3 v$ m! }5 Oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ r5 x1 B, K' t# P3 T# [) @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' X! f: _/ `3 |$ d
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 i) q! W* W$ P& G R( |$ h7 e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& g0 q K8 P4 [% @sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 D4 S5 m- Y1 l' d
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! j2 e& q. G3 _2 rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* j# J# l4 r6 Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
^: _8 \& r9 `2 k' C: N" x) psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 x( _: Z* W- e; a
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 }; A3 h8 l$ D2 D9 l( Y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: b# t# O/ E4 |$ \ junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ ?7 B5 r$ r: ?7 N0 ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- X; _; |" `+ a& z2 B9 T: m8 p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, z+ V3 |) B0 l! Q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 G& w8 Z1 L& V0 d3 z% I# {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 x+ A- X- j2 j g" Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 ]7 X/ ? w$ Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 Z( E: E$ K& @- y BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 k$ H* F9 I" R* O ^
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 y4 U% D5 s% s' v+ A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& Q ~, c) Z! H Z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 N7 e9 q$ c# ]( L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ x" L' P# e5 M% F- s, v9 R! jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 a4 u3 `; } [, C2 g! F- o, ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! m5 F: T- m e/ U6 ~( @5 y8 jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: r3 U5 ]- d! ZThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# G9 E8 ?8 G( ~( h! g- A- m7 b1 l& v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 l3 z7 @) x% nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( F5 m- }& E+ T2 {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 V9 Q, C) f3 ]+ t# D' N, y% I" G
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* q `7 V( [0 j4 mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 Q" {& z% { l9 Z2 J2 g: ~/ Z% ~
leg down over 2009.) h% n: J* f0 x& s
+ W' ]3 u5 M" @3 l4 f% k& J0 N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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