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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." P4 W$ Q" o9 G# ?

2 c; w- c, S5 xTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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9 p1 ^! j! `& g3 U, V1 |"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 I! H" h' U) j( n+ _8 y
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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" J0 _- T! b& s, j; u/ L4 mTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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: C* o- l0 _& ^  [2 F& q"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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' R& {0 l2 B* I+ DMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ U- b: U* j: I) e5 @; Q6 H
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。7 H7 T% G" o% s7 K- H
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  ~- ?) f! L$ l& E5 N7 Y
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表   E, W- n9 O6 q# s; ^0 r- e' p8 `
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了( i+ u( `- I% Z1 U' r2 {2 p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta5 h. F/ ^* E+ d+ }, Y: ?
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& n4 F2 T( |* P* o# z: Hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' N; r: }( g6 E( mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 ?: X. [8 B: k/ ?! U& X2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 [4 v6 B1 k+ M3 @- u" k" cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 l$ C6 [) e. |9 Z% G. z" Tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; M# O. Y  R$ f/ n; h
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( n9 n8 i! N! X. ?7 }  S# M% [may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ S- f% k. m" ^7 m( t% H, d' fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* E( j8 A8 u5 z& W' ]+ vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& k! ^1 U0 h6 h# q9 Q* wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 y4 v& N. {- q6 J5 _1 w4 y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 a. L- C4 \. P0 ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, c9 z8 d3 q4 `% ]homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 Z: ~0 T  U4 g+ U! |" P30,000 new households will form in the province during
% J$ s2 ^0 k' \/ s( [2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& p! g' I. x" C( f- d# Y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; s; b1 e6 v( ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! b0 n2 Q5 x7 bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& W0 S, N0 @2 ]% `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% i1 u2 \4 F8 v
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 K$ c: M/ q& F' y7 e4 C$ ^
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- E/ s, E4 c' J5 {6 d5 S
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( e2 C/ c9 H* ?( H  U$ C- I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# w% |$ ?  C" O$ X: D* n8 V+ z/ H
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ f6 ~# B/ L" M+ E, z. Q! M- L1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! k' D5 {4 {+ _9 y( Z2 ]" l: |
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: f" Q# H' g5 a3 q4 R) w
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- X* D" L6 }) S# i$ V8 itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% a2 v6 m1 N, x, qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- ?% L6 h7 M7 _+ J' n, w, `$ Q: Zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ O7 c" K8 x+ Q4 t& _" l$ ]) p0 Wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: a' @5 J" R: P; ~+ X" \resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' \1 a- m0 v6 v: r: F  P: jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( H4 t7 v, s' i6 I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: \: c  ?  B+ p: O/ Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 j5 y* n6 G% b9 CThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( R, p/ E. U4 t% u: n; |
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 t  P/ Y) }- V. Z9 ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ i9 Q) |' o( F4 C. f5 g/ f1 G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 D. G; ]4 R, `+ `: e. hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale  [; q& @6 A' L1 l' D% z% c" I, m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 \' L/ Q! w" j- athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 X* t1 G5 r9 U8 D* Q$ F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 f2 l1 Z" s; F' C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 q) ~+ I% A% M4 L& j5 z7 Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
  H" M* E. v+ |5 Cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 R5 a3 w, Z' w6 Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# |+ R, w5 ?5 V* I& H9 V+ Y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 P/ F- g% J1 u% C- p* n( U9 vAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" ^: H. J- y( A% }7 D2 _0 x) L' w$ M
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 _; m; L( G% f1 F( ]Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ( I. y0 C* J; ~# S6 H6 `
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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! [3 ~; q( M/ c0 `# [: G3 thttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! b; P7 d; \9 J! ?( d
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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