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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% g# ], R) \8 e! g: J& L2 `

& U- a1 K& Q0 K  z. _TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 8 N. F; f9 I/ ^6 A

. ^7 D9 f% D+ A# K6 g"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# y( X7 ?" s7 @* P+ C$ p

6 G- w% |, G6 h% Z( Z7 j5 YTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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$ x% k# @- Y% D2 _"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. - a9 L+ l9 n% [  B! x

) q. F* w: Q6 l( o' QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.* m$ K5 q. T& J4 O. z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 P! i+ m5 B" J; j5 c3 j
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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2 f2 w: Q& m1 S: X( GTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
. R* c' B2 J7 j 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。) U) |2 n1 S+ O0 P. m" {/ R" t
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 - r8 S5 ~, O! M$ V! z! C; o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
7 H& k7 y( _5 o/ X! G) A2 A嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta1 F- f2 t- u7 r, z( V* L) Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" r) i9 Y7 M- [3 k& e3 X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; j* F7 j! b  g9 d% }/ h$ ~  tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( g! w) ^& h& N! [0 m9 Y! {, A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 @9 z# n0 F2 Y% e. E5 h! Z  B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% T) T  ?$ T, N$ b: Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," I  C; T. |" ~+ ^4 X- Z* U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* b) ^! B6 W' o  T+ ^. t  Z/ g8 Q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) v1 b: L. r. Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 Z3 a' s; w7 f0 ], k- f
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! v2 C  a7 V5 c- ]' {# B. A
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ y- N7 [; \4 ]) Zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ {5 M. n2 K' \6 k& C3 Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 T, Q) q# _$ k  qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 W9 n* P7 t- C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 ?- ]: m$ [' S- A2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' c: ]9 S  v" C% jEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( n$ k7 d/ n5 F8 D7 u4 @2 \
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 G3 s  K4 @" u& t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 }8 R- U+ N. _1 T! u8 b
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" s% Z0 E1 `( `+ c5 T9 e7 |' j/ W, C
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( W" `3 i$ }" M$ Y2 b' m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 |+ C* \$ i* [( i. W# K. @  M
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: W) S% f& V$ Q% D) eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& V( k3 A3 s% @- q2 cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ p% t' `! l' ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! K0 i. I4 s% R( C2 J1 m0 w6 v
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive% W. m  H' y7 m( e: ]# d9 `. a
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 b  B7 T$ H* L+ M( M% vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 Z' Y5 P2 \  @
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. I6 t; A* e4 d0 k" E: i$ @unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 f/ z: P8 i6 {! Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 [% o6 @- c8 c2 A* C
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: d# l3 o+ v) @9 Omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 u' t6 _6 j" _8 u
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ V' @9 m- k  F8 ^0 T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ G3 ]7 @  Z+ t/ U/ s6 y3 y) d7 }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 u- O3 d2 C1 b6 t% k" S
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ H% c, y6 Q$ k! AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. G6 e5 D. E1 F
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 W9 j! Y, a  a6 P% qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 T9 J, D) U+ X' @prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  f0 s- g7 `2 Othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' A% H4 `  c# k9 a# C$ don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
  [+ k* j! T+ P9 F) jThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( W; o' t* p5 e9 D( C  dresale price in February is evidence that past prices1 {- E6 ^" ~! [# W1 g: X! H1 _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ J+ @$ W/ c# ~' i' d+ x) Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, v5 g& T) \& p: tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' R- l' b) Z! |2 c. I& |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. n, {( g1 D& w. a; g2 f+ m7 Cleg down over 2009.
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6 }* U4 c/ H: g1 v, [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 Z. |5 a, b1 D- B! ]' XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 d% m! s$ R  R0 l( X9 j- D$ y. u0 I翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- ]7 _% b  m: j$ [% z: z5 i/ n3 W
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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