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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.8 W9 J; c& p' z# q3 I
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. % [5 U) C; t# ?+ u( o  U
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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; A, Y7 e0 G) MNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. * n7 \; Z/ e1 ^1 t
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.. l! K" @" u0 H/ ^
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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( r- g% m* S4 @+ a. `http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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+ G: F+ ^, }' C% j' u[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 H+ E. C( \0 C: A6 Q: y 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 # o' y8 m  D% J: C4 P' \1 f, R
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
% ?: j& {3 ]1 V) B; z嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta# P9 {- C3 A4 C6 t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# ?" f0 L4 e- T) U5 I2 b% o1 Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
: r( _) o& V% |$ Q$ vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' h8 E& M# D/ ]& z5 T% i2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 }4 `$ [3 S! O1 |8 W2 D9 z2 A9 i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 N! a! u$ x( U  D# v; C5 }2 A" |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 p3 q+ i$ [( b* s* I  ~! j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 }+ S# \% Q6 [3 s. K5 R3 P9 s3 amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 Y% p' K1 M- ^9 [1 g5 Q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. ~* l5 u% m+ p( d! {; Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 Z: L0 u8 T# J7 B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& ~( J8 ~( z" g7 s0 Iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 u, N' O. ~, r; s- m
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 k* z, v. q5 g) ^! n
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' [# q. @; K" h1 n5 u- U
30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 u( P0 _- h4 E5 h( u7 ?9 \( m2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: z  D* R: g! }, z9 `) yEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 P# _) z8 @' Ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
" W/ z1 M+ g2 U& bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 m9 a- z, A% e2 F( X2 Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ o) t: Y6 I, M; z9 {( g% v0 Q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: p! P% \: J" Y- o/ j5 U, z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. O6 C9 G1 ?( b5 Z6 |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, |! Y; |" {& U7 K1 ~; `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ L$ m/ `+ h, ^) H2 ]: X4 L
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- Z8 o7 |3 c6 W( c( j; E( v8 h/ g; Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' X' ~2 i: J3 t/ y4 b; |
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% q6 B; F* L" z" D6 {& v1 abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. n9 |; T/ [5 ]' F# y* T
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 H' R$ C2 `2 K% s/ R& h' h9 ~; K
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ I# g3 b+ \  @6 |% d+ ^unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% k- B& h2 C% Z  ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, W4 b0 E" u/ G5 ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# j; {' D# {# o  G( E( f0 k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 n6 ^9 `6 b. |! m' _  v0 B6 _
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ W, ^% g! j: u0 i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! ?# @1 T6 b3 Y& V# U" O& |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ Y( W2 Z+ a$ l/ d2 v
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, A5 s: f" h  ~Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- O$ e$ r; v2 K+ e" A7 phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" t7 [$ S! a4 Y' a! _$ i8 Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 v  g8 M, z( _4 L1 u2 cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even: G1 b6 |6 J  f5 r
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  P8 l6 R8 ~& U! _/ K% [on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
  C( b2 @$ U5 O* \- wThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 |* V3 p" ?& z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 Y1 V+ z6 ]! h8 I" qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 Z% Y0 j# x3 Y! Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& p4 e6 ~: j9 I7 H7 M& ydeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 ?) I/ @5 V6 l+ d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- D9 k% m0 }6 H: I- h8 W( W
leg down over 2009., {* h/ U) J1 w

5 d! k0 h( R( t1 }: `2 [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," C' S: _$ C0 H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( O3 F/ o$ F$ ^* C$ C& |9 U+ Y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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* l" K& Y3 ~- B% X6 s6 T. ~http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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