 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' B% G; a8 }/ y {+ f2 UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* Y6 `" O! @* z! n6 Eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 a+ _: m6 f2 ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to I2 F0 p& g6 Y. D' c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% | r& \3 D/ Y5 \+ x2 x0 P
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 [ m8 L H) e# Ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 m/ k# D3 B, O5 w Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- a: ]% _9 _4 Z5 L; X0 ?, ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 P" X) [) D6 s) dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ C0 w+ e, `# K$ F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- }. h: z+ `; t4 R0 ^% d
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 K0 a& E# D3 ]; U K3 Iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) v0 x5 _3 c* N3 Y( iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( j" I( E7 i4 Z* S% lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 s' V- W6 T* H/ a4 T; C4 L30,000 new households will form in the province during
: p6 T7 y2 a6 E2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) M% p/ D6 R I1 G; lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 w( ~: h( {# j: U1 T3 k; Q2 vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, W; i! ^* \0 Z$ M) d3 Tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 @/ _8 ~" G( \1 ?# @8 x" N, J9 @
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 R! e1 `& N9 y; `% e4 B4 |; b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; s" L) Z) N$ ~1 C- L/ Y0 C
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' ~- v' m- T* R3 M) j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 Y- a! }, [+ |* q0 ]: cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 T+ ~: A; h! y3 J9 Y' E, Bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 U& s6 u. f9 H: E, K/ S3 f# C
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* j3 k: [# G. F5 k' v9 L. Xsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) J- e2 {# K4 }- o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ b t' x7 z! V; ] A7 F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 a F1 m" W7 c7 C' ^2 H# a
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ w. Q$ ]9 M) r- O8 O4 m
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) P( r9 z7 z4 D# I, V. k+ trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! `( [* x( T3 P9 K/ J0 \0 ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ a' }8 P( R; f- q5 }* r0 p$ E4 }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# T: j7 j$ c& i3 [of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 m5 p' Q+ D0 h( I5 wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 K# u0 }* d6 {3 N- e$ G3 j, G
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; Q7 i6 c8 ]2 x0 u' f& W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 V3 \. @8 o$ KAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan9 S8 F9 b+ C% L3 e6 p$ S/ w
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced T- h1 p+ L8 J) G: J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 j4 u0 P; x, W/ l+ h# }7 D8 O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 Y; r8 R4 o. p# e8 @9 I u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) ^6 |# Z! \% r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 |# ~2 d9 Q6 c# m$ EThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
9 V# y0 m8 U% z. Lresale price in February is evidence that past prices- h+ n* P" T- m8 F3 C. s8 [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) s" f6 A" @& x* shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; h& \5 e2 X: g' y& |7 Ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 h8 q2 B8 d- l! S MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, i$ e0 }# `! A" N) H) rleg down over 2009.$ P% A* ~1 ]- Q
! u2 a1 y" {5 x5 V, ?+ r
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|