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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.- Z6 f, K6 Q1 f
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & {6 o: |& d' y

" G/ m0 l9 r* S" J7 m; aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " _. r/ o1 X/ B0 c' U6 z
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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/ p& p% g, V9 ]% _% i* ?/ HTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( Q3 p* X$ @2 c/ l: B* h
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 8 }; F% C9 o4 H; ]

9 N2 H1 v! S- XTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.8 Z& N/ W' f+ i' a- n
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 5 _% F5 X- u& |$ w8 C/ h

# {) B! O$ D( W$ S' G1 ]3 ohttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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1 z9 ~$ V: ~$ NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% u( T5 R6 P/ A, A- I1 e4 Z
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。5 t3 c( Y: j/ a) z. g) [
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; o+ \9 h2 @: e1 o1 h. y' O) M

+ }/ t  w$ c6 h  l/ C3 U2 A! x[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
( o$ p% _# Y0 a. _8 i跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ c# F# t0 a! f* }. R! |; Y很多人都回学校深造去了
3 T: Q; |" ^& A$ i& @- H嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
/ @: [3 M! V% VWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 O, Q  C' G( k8 J# U
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ d- m* s3 p/ X. e% p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" X/ f/ {# |/ l  W/ J2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 h8 m8 U; v! a2 L" Y4 r
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* G; r2 @- U/ l# ]* h$ G- X' \* M
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& y8 k- f2 k# H
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 d: }* ~$ c; h0 q8 dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, E( g4 j: t# M) _5 H8 \( vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 C" W+ ?/ w# A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" F" _7 @8 ?& }. C) G6 Sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ @3 b+ q& A: p+ t; J3 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% F+ c1 A* M4 y7 {5 S5 d6 _; gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 e4 W% M4 y  f6 N
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 p) q2 _, t3 q6 I& B9 B
30,000 new households will form in the province during! F) M8 a& Z0 N+ ?, h- G( d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 I  K) U" U( g1 t1 \
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 g, ~5 [% u2 q  o; V$ ]
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ {+ {/ z2 N5 f( w* j, H
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# P9 c7 _! d- |, P) lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- h& E1 H% e# b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. F' |7 g) l6 c  P9 S7 b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 q" y7 w# E$ g. V/ f9 ]3 g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' ]7 S8 N/ |7 K/ y9 zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 f; w* _- I& }8 W+ ^. _* E: A) Xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 P! C+ t: ?1 `  e) F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) W! c; j; N" H- r5 w3 `4 s
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ Y" _* e* X7 U4 qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; P/ k" U- l5 D  l( k! C6 j/ R+ G3 Htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ A/ P' z  x3 X; ]2 p! p
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; y% Y  l0 h) }9 I# {5 q/ W- `% J! Dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) Z( |1 ?! W, Wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* O: N6 ]. q2 ~6 z, ~. m) presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 O1 ~7 H' K0 N% }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& f1 H! r9 ~- o
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 \5 [" g' Q. O- w: P+ L6 r8 W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) L& Z+ G6 q6 `/ X4 O
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 k0 O' @" y! q! P% ?
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( L# \" b  z& [' k, dAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# V! z7 q  h( L% M% A7 p% j
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" }" Z! N+ ~4 y& s7 a
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' n5 n/ v, ~0 ]+ o- P) h$ b$ s8 z) d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& w8 H- a7 A! y7 U  p' kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 [; w8 t0 |  qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( ]1 y* c' o$ P" `The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- v# _2 O/ U7 v( Q! Y" I
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 Y; a+ K8 T9 R4 ^! x2 d
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 r( x" w" E% K9 ?8 E1 b
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, z" J: w% f7 E, W/ P2 V4 |, \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ t# X  J4 t$ y4 r' q5 ]" K) _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* {& H/ @: u/ J! b7 q! ^leg down over 2009.( p2 v9 k$ h. `! O6 f+ ]

& Y# R3 U' h; d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ U4 k5 P" [! h4 \0 G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; Z  x# w. ^6 S1 y
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子7 ?5 a/ G5 z; O; h4 G' n" n, t
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments+ H* i0 u) u# S. e- N, c

  x$ ]& {& I4 c( \% f% l" j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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