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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.: _# v" B% U* K( G8 x% W* i

0 b( }- |* k6 I7 ?" ?. ^% @TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
* G  }/ f# p+ ^8 W# |! e& ]% _
; _$ y/ @* z- s; ^The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 9 A$ i- k) o5 ?& P
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : R$ J  C! j6 ?% Z3 M& h
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 Z. f( j7 b/ n

$ O+ D2 P0 M# l( r  W, X. p% k- u6 g% fTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.# R. J. d- R; g$ [% ?

  N% G/ s! W4 @( G9 ["A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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* h" [# W( {% A' E: n; q  R0 ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& |! [! b9 q. [5 Z3 B
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.   o8 W) x! M5 M' @% g; ~
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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( B- z9 @! y" p; g[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% u; V, R7 L6 z9 W2 F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 Y6 Z, ?; a1 Z/ A$ m! L) k

" f& |9 T' p: F- }[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 $ W# `* _3 k+ d& V$ u
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
$ g2 e. r% V! q$ W! o, v
很多人都回学校深造去了
% p" a, U, @9 W* T0 P2 l. Y$ k嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
$ F6 z5 G* |8 G' A# X$ ?/ ?7 P: }, `Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ d2 [2 T5 d# n6 i2 n
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: R! A, v+ I; N" _% C$ O- |
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 T, K7 d: d0 d! r* M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! R- v2 [9 }/ g8 y  t2 n: hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 E$ \+ f7 h' ]from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) g- W+ q: l; [2 B# C
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 h& g- D$ e8 v: o  w+ L& Y8 i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 D) d* y& ^& R7 G: B+ A+ d* g) l
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" ~% e6 y  a6 T+ \6 v4 L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 E6 P6 L6 M3 b+ n. D- c0 ]$ s& Rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 A+ b0 V9 c  ], L0 Z2 x
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this! X! U  w3 M, ?
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 k- c$ @! |/ l% r. A! z& q  E4 L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ q; |2 x* M1 a9 ]1 ^6 w30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 M# n$ w: l7 X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& j0 O" y% U! I/ S/ O
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* q; t& ~1 o" D( Q  g
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 h2 p  K( F. D- q& P4 i0 W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 {5 S$ k. W* {( c% Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) g* d4 }% X. o4 ^" h. whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
- I' g. b* k5 R7 W) U* k  lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- T9 d; |' o, P% t: e5 ~8 usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" X& L+ P7 ?9 z  |! k& @
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# Q$ h7 V' m: ^: |& w' ~  R
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ R* O2 U2 z& g: d. S
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 J1 `2 r3 W# y9 {3 B* r0 Wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. H9 }$ C% x/ [) m# d+ @buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  E! H$ Z" @0 e5 t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 T( s1 f/ z' z, P
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% t% {1 t  {9 x* ?/ |- f9 b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( d& V- a# ~5 j  M, d' i: \recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ u1 a6 N" o4 ^) p7 P2 a! c; Eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; X6 U- m- H. ^* w3 emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& w( I: F/ Y0 ?. ~of new singles, and, with demand having cooled7 Q% t( q! \! u  o# I( Y4 B
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., h; k" o  s2 h, R$ I! S
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( n5 A0 r5 m3 d  c9 J6 ~# d
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% m& k' H" L% D1 e% o" x
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan7 ]& o4 E6 ~) N; T9 j! L1 G7 A
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, t% u" H5 e+ U! R4 y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' e- r' I- {- }# j, S5 c
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ h# W. v" |+ Q5 O- c$ O$ u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! f% F( ?( ~; Y; G+ X) e
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; y# N* ?4 L$ wThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
  N; a- [3 N( b9 tresale price in February is evidence that past prices3 ?0 n1 |' U  Y" U( L" J+ o
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' x9 A0 m( b5 f& C3 d1 [7 z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- U$ P" q1 K9 r$ f( Y. J5 J' d
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: D- _' N& g9 y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 O* s& D, H4 ^6 F
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; k5 v! q$ i) j; n8 F, SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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! \) C$ o* J( s) V- I- A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
& d7 K6 N3 h/ Z4 L# `翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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3 U1 J3 h6 S2 k9 {3 X; b0 h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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