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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta3 F( K6 _. N7 l- z, U1 K
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 ^2 o- g5 } h6 [8 B1 @
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 z( ]8 ]. F' r1 R- ]: f8 U# y- Qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" Z! R5 ?: h! F9 `* q, u6 N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. h) C8 O O' p& T7 S' S
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 y& `+ {; U1 ?3 |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) x% D, k- o3 Q+ ]' ythe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 {6 c/ C* i+ \. P+ W! r2 v
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! Z" V( N" |# V" C) Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 w) w4 l. C' ^4 r! J! Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, Q6 \# B- G, M; `
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# a8 |, l9 O6 [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 `) Z5 ]0 v x) lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! h7 D" r5 K1 R2 |) ?* F0 f0 Q$ v
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ H0 F2 l* p. D30,000 new households will form in the province during; J" e1 L% ?- e& K# O
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ a& a2 Q9 [% l* p. r' |* a$ X# B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# r4 W* S8 S2 C
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
T. ~( ?/ d4 n4 V( j2 G- {1 O pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. K1 V# _8 @, [. }5 h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* E' B% `1 y9 \5 dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# k+ |, e, Q/ j% n" w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: q9 [/ R9 w f1 m# d/ @$ X
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* S% }5 p: A- |$ K$ mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 z& _% h! N% m) {8 F- g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% I9 {- ^* w% H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 d u' i% r# ~0 j8 k' a8 j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 W+ d3 ^5 Q+ i0 V; x9 F1 {buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 L) d7 r# M1 c1 M
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, }2 _' W6 v. U* ]5 J: z* }+ n' Eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- K7 {+ L8 b* l3 z8 N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 z$ ]8 Y8 H9 s# K ^
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 L! e8 y6 K) Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- b r* U) P$ U. M4 E5 ]3 @
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 I7 p9 ?+ P9 p) \0 Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( ~1 O# M n& B* Trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( Q6 E& i7 [. X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 g# Q1 E0 r! u# d" N/ l
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' p# \8 W+ Q3 t7 u7 QAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
- `4 T( x# A$ D. Uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 X& k: n9 b; i; nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 `8 c6 L2 \% B Z, c/ Vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# K" ^) ]: s4 O: H2 qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
/ c4 x: l( C+ o7 D: M' Oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 P( C. E/ ?2 g( W, H- HThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average w! z- i6 o4 `4 A* {0 G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 |$ G) h4 ~% A5 S3 C
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: |- S8 {+ O" i7 i7 b% A. p
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! g8 F2 B+ j# o) H& T
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 n; m& D! L1 D) d" ?4 O5 w; C5 [
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 C6 i, c+ p5 _0 g# `$ K
leg down over 2009.
3 m; x. S! x2 K$ h( L" S
% {9 I, n$ \& o# j( O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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