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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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( O# q$ E( b0 Y+ E' }0 Z% |5 uThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ f5 ^& W( O3 y; |
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- E$ Y; g% P. k8 T" U

" J0 ]# a- D! v; X9 [TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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2 ^- J* A2 K7 \' _"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 5 V. z. Q: V( y6 ?0 I, ^5 Z1 q- I" i

/ v! }1 t$ H+ sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 J- j8 ~( B8 G* l8 o  }0 b
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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, r& \8 U* _1 L3 W5 ]' e# [TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 f! U: q  D) @6 |. S6 t" z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。4 I8 P; a3 h0 c  F4 A+ [. m+ z
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / L) W- Q, ^- x& j* S3 e0 l$ Y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了1 Z: O; R1 [- \7 x0 A' Q9 m9 D
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* B' a3 K! k& v& P( Y. @5 G
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 W& b9 e2 g! D8 {) }* E
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 i/ d% ~3 X% p4 R& L7 Z3 iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 x. m6 k6 N; l' W! y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: T8 t" u4 J! z5 P: Uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  ^% Z* ^( ]$ g( K9 D
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, x% t/ p; r/ F( Z$ u
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 ]' I9 K( [" G, Imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
) F5 x4 {( r4 b6 `- H5 npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! D5 M( H4 Q' Eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 K* t' z) p* Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 k* {( Q6 o; Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 i  q5 F) a# ?+ Y- R! gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, }9 F: d1 l8 D4 ]5 J( K, w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  h8 G0 K7 c% k3 X30,000 new households will form in the province during
. N/ J+ U# `, t1 l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 H% A6 ?$ Y1 d% `6 a0 ^8 ?  d3 uEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ j4 ?( r& @* {homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ b! D' ?: \" W' g5 I; k3 x8 Tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 j9 n+ i1 o  z# |/ A5 l% _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 \; q9 ]: M& [, rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% a2 }5 `. o5 p; y+ Y' ~during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- Q, s9 R* r, D# B# C  I/ k( z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ j: o. q- j+ A( k) F/ O
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ ^4 w& E" a8 gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" f9 M: `  s# x6 w1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# a4 @: O! p% Y0 J8 N. B* J; Usales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 C# n8 h, |  e  K3 `# H  s0 Rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- D) _( {( `+ ~' ?7 C) g
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in/ _' h7 O  Q0 s8 N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 Y, r6 [  I- M* t( K6 wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! \: M- ]7 d  brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 c, ^* R- X! \5 ~6 A: L0 Rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ g9 l) s$ p9 e3 s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* F& P% J! W! n( W: B5 |+ x5 i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 J% Q9 }" D9 _% d& t  n7 C& X) ~rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: {' y8 ?$ ?2 F: H9 SThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 ~+ R4 x$ T$ P
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% F1 }+ g  p/ U9 D& S+ u5 N1 I
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ U7 F, I  A6 ^4 r" v0 r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, S5 |# {3 M) ]2 B6 Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# I( ]! v4 S) Z2 J" Mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, `  u$ B( m* kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* I; q3 M' i9 mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ \. j  F8 }/ \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% k' t! _( Y/ ~0 L' Jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, j1 M7 E& g# d# f" N$ X% lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. v5 H1 B# o+ y1 L; c/ r8 M: khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% C7 H0 `- A4 @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, M4 E2 F6 ^7 v0 z6 eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* S1 ^- q. r2 o" u8 X! d
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# E! V( b8 q8 g' X: OAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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! ]: V8 x3 z) {/ E0 P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, p0 I, [6 ?) i0 x+ N' C翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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+ n, g* H7 o0 i+ khttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments4 z+ ]# {8 ?" E

0 @  T2 u4 b* ^  q/ ^+ @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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