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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.: q( `% b9 m1 S5 p  r% l

  `* `# P- g% Z7 KTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 A% o: P6 G5 y7 ~& ]# E
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. + z4 ~. X  l" ^0 j4 H0 r
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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4 _* Z& f/ X" v5 ?# N7 y% bNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." y! M- M# k7 y# R% j: p0 E+ _

/ Y7 G* @# t' k5 R9 \4 P6 x' rTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  f+ C+ c! l; V

5 c0 C  {* q2 f8 P( m' B"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) z) N5 s2 E$ H/ ^' |! R1 A" x
/ k+ J2 M) s: x! {/ e3 Y& B
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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! X6 M% t( x, I* u  l6 W- ?: X' N* BMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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( ?" g' F" v2 P2 E0 i5 ~, fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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5 ^/ z  S$ g, }5 x+ X9 dTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
* S/ n* u  x" Y( z$ \/ _# E% f" z( Q; N  m  m  o# v
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
- [% w) G$ ~, [$ t 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 {( A1 u/ V  [, \; h
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 3 f$ \- l) R1 l3 Q9 h5 t9 x
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: }9 R; c) Y; Z, @  F9 D1 \很多人都回学校深造去了
$ T. D/ B; Z" X2 \2 i; L( |  n' w嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
2 G2 ~3 u0 ^; U8 x, FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  B) n9 W- L2 |& i2 fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 s/ j& F8 \* p+ Care cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 J7 F! B* ]/ k8 O0 |: ]/ Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 R4 @* X4 ]* pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 j6 o, `. B1 F* I+ x
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. @2 f3 f: o0 d: i$ [+ _the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 }* o4 ]; v) {) ~( |1 _7 M2 F8 \  Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 p) J. r7 k8 _6 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% ~  }0 G) i( Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ m% z4 T/ O- g! w
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, ^' O2 Z0 d$ Zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ z+ x4 H! w7 l8 k# h; ]5 J3 \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 n0 n* t( B1 T- t* Z- }6 J: Y+ jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 s) p% V8 I( a1 h- E1 J30,000 new households will form in the province during* Y% Q# ~! o' o8 y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 h6 x/ W4 T# V. u
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: D" j7 S" A5 v/ B+ `' O( p- mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ i1 R1 R. k$ G1 y2 M* n  I- |
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 p7 q) {* \- Z# P* F! G- G9 ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ i4 m4 _5 M  Z! r4 l# |$ ~households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ A7 y( @; y8 R6 S
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; c7 H+ g8 ]' I% B
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* o* S+ v9 F! I& r: \  U( e( r) ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 b' |; R+ H/ ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 V3 y8 s6 _  c. X' N
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! Y" B* H* [% O, O2 x
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ r8 `. d, V' G9 Dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 u2 v+ D2 X% K8 a3 ?two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ T" [9 [% X* D8 X6 \7 r! H
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& k& ]. l. B5 n  @& Aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' H1 }. l8 @, q  X/ ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* r: i3 g* O/ A0 Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& M; V( R* U, u3 ^" Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& H/ h2 L+ Q! o, q1 ^3 E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* x9 `2 k' `; R2 P% F
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( w7 c" ?+ _# qThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 v- T$ z. ~3 l$ |* H. ]' Bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 x$ `; |* R& e5 D3 v  r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 t. Z# x0 d) O. Q7 h! n% }8 y8 R8 j4 Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. V  U+ e7 @& f- I; d  d' e( ~, zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale  ~+ D+ g, O8 e8 b
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ t4 }$ M, z7 z$ |$ E6 Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 n+ F" z6 P2 {( Y) R6 }2 ?
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ b3 N/ [& q* I9 J! C( a' wThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* ~$ r6 ?3 Q) t: P) U8 F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, ^  y' h% `" A9 Y& m' S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 }) A+ o7 E4 I7 ]7 xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# M- q) v$ H, `* R/ I# t- o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# D5 @* V; i) }4 F- v5 W2 aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ ^5 x0 ^$ w! c' ?, ^5 C( o7 l
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 t1 o1 L! ]: ?" G6 G' J1 R9 ?. `( ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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4 j$ s/ s' ^4 T6 r$ E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- s. Q0 I+ M# p# n" y$ W* h翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 ~& d- O1 Z1 C, y

$ f' D) X1 c* s! v& rhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments3 S4 ]7 i+ [+ R5 h. c* W
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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