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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* ]( F; Z6 S: Q( N7 Q+ B$ g7 Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; H0 b3 z5 s1 V( s& ?; kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ U9 S2 W t* N5 V1 a: `# D
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 F1 s" U+ R" n3 e# M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ ^" V+ R+ h( t2 t% X: Cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 ~" v" W: Y5 Q/ s5 C9 Hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 s- u7 T* V, |% E! c! X# a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* G* O$ L5 V) s
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' Q! }/ o/ ?$ L; m
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' p/ E+ \3 y, |2 |
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, G5 o7 C3 F+ J8 c7 M, f
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 k8 w( j' G. f' u$ }( m- n1 Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this c8 ?+ r/ n7 N# H) E
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 I% |/ b" {8 q$ W' jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- g! m3 M9 n3 X" l30,000 new households will form in the province during" D/ ]: i g, A1 R7 i9 Q5 l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ r! @: A& {, B2 xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ l5 {; A5 S" m" @) vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* F5 B4 R& A3 A+ ]" B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' o# |1 R# k! g( D% hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 b4 \9 @% j0 k' O# g& g% w: O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 p( U$ {* I9 b( K; p8 h2 Rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( p9 u! {9 i1 M8 K- k4 H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ {" U! R. I; \, j1 Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" V# ?, L+ G9 \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* C9 a* J8 r D- m# A: u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* a* x2 W7 Z; Z; A0 Y* ?8 @. R
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% u0 U4 L8 D0 N: J; K+ Wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. Z( ~3 d3 y3 _5 ?* w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ r; ^# t% k: y# l |, [
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ @6 J1 ]: s$ `& ] ^2 }7 @* f- Iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& p! P, a' \: d, x- L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; x! Q; m9 @7 [+ l* m$ g5 D8 jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 T: D4 M! z* e7 _ @" `" J1 [ dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 s4 w' v/ }! u
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
" j3 F$ c/ K/ p6 Prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 f2 @2 @# Y }0 g6 G( c u% y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# C+ y/ X. |/ k7 s* i6 S
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 Z: h3 i/ l3 ^3 W% |8 b+ f
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
, A3 d. o+ c+ w; H: H$ @housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& a1 q& Z2 s$ l2 g: z3 F1 \relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 u `- e2 [( ~) {5 b# |. Bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 l9 D$ d, J# C( F+ u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 c$ n* S; d' r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. n4 B) S" O) K
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& m* A- Y, ^6 }- h7 h6 }resale price in February is evidence that past prices V6 x( O8 G$ B0 }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 n6 V/ d/ v3 ?2 x" vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; o7 w5 O% r! i2 z) O
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 m6 i; w( I; Z2 k. X2 x' W+ D4 UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) g" U8 K$ k) R' N+ v
leg down over 2009.& q' f9 H. c9 u: t
; y ^9 ~# K7 Q. D; {! p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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