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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% S, |8 c. [( q, e( Z4 M6 \ VWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% ]0 J" B! O4 L) e( K' rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' _/ ~7 c- G8 I$ G+ C" h5 C/ A
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 } w4 Y# X8 q) H9 l
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 J& L. _% h1 W8 U
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ \+ \; f* m) }9 A4 Cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* O" i9 e* i Q7 X
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, p( _" M0 _3 e1 \( P. omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 X" A1 ?5 F5 M/ Hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ r! \* f( D8 U/ wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 |9 X1 f8 U) a6 m6 Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
d+ h' y: W( Q# A: V9 Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# E8 Y+ i1 m% ~1 ~year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 F) S( O+ d. h: ~4 m' ?. `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ G4 d c& N: b( o30,000 new households will form in the province during, f. R6 z' o& v* U: x4 s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) I, @8 t5 v1 \6 z2 n9 E0 }
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" M5 c0 g" L" h: \* G- S% u+ G" u, |homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 |0 _2 Q! R" p0 q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' P& {. X& G2 I6 l! e
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; l! o2 B7 E0 u
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 G3 n$ G2 O6 |( L
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* S' W8 ?3 p6 b4 Q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 B/ Y( D U. J, r$ d' u
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' }: ~/ r: ^8 N5 W8 wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 `- e* l9 F+ c& @6 K, j3 V. _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 k7 a. V* n3 q0 T1 \% ^; o" R. K' _sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" D: _: Y: x6 H* [; c
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& r6 h5 S2 c- T8 f$ Ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 H+ }' C: V6 u4 y3 F2 G
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 v$ T# \# N3 S$ N. c1 Punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* D+ _+ b# E( I9 O7 _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 B8 j8 z' Q, A& a8 F: ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, G+ o5 T! v9 J: H9 D' m8 hmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- {+ H" P0 |/ A5 Xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 F& r- K' {4 V3 Mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) ?+ Y8 a. e1 H
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 N+ _" U) }: {0 uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% A" |) N6 e. S! y- fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 s' d: M" v: [3 C9 s7 o+ r4 ]housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) q g+ N5 C' s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 Z$ J2 ]+ h0 u( h1 W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 x7 t) E5 a, O6 x! i0 {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; r. k1 |0 C' L+ s# A- ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ i: e) _. r6 P7 h7 YThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# G6 m4 | i/ e" }& wresale price in February is evidence that past prices S4 d9 e; o4 g8 K$ ^. ^
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 \. E c# l6 y" {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! k+ k3 l5 z* T8 J |+ Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* F1 R$ k; L f1 X3 s
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 h% V( Y: d7 L/ d7 O3 ~2 p2 yleg down over 2009.. F/ m( Q, j3 D8 I3 R; ^8 f
# C. V6 ]1 ^, |/ Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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