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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( D* k! r- H, N0 M! b; n+ h+ f7 c

. m% n4 \! }- P; ]TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : e# X$ g! l% W3 O
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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1 P; @# Q  Y% A7 W+ m/ W"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ; I' T( X' V* t5 {8 y. C
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.3 Q( g& d0 H5 a& f! F% m
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  z5 ^+ g% P, d- k- G

1 `8 g/ s5 x9 h# S: v2 q"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 `9 z- {* \7 m" v# L

& b3 h3 F8 L6 C; hhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

: R+ E0 F  u7 M6 u9 c& G8 Y, B0 [! J) [( b% ^
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) J9 @- B% X. G* v8 `
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。0 T; u/ v7 C1 l+ w
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
( n/ b# k5 S0 T! K  d跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

- ^8 W% ~' q( ]. D2 M+ t; C: K很多人都回学校深造去了7 X2 V' s( f1 ~4 w( U) G7 _6 y
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
+ f) r5 P6 S/ LWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* Y' {7 ^, [7 _' O, N/ a+ m
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 y  |, P. G- N$ Sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to  S  i5 l3 K- Q7 l4 A* ?
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 ~2 V: _! V; @  ?& o4 qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 P/ M3 f8 Z( a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# L  H3 T1 C, W# M$ s- _the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; r/ Y/ \, m9 }( a$ K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 ]& i# h# x, o( s
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ a: V5 P; _( x$ b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, m8 o* P- ?( Z, e' Qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 Z% W, t0 l5 _: l7 b' u8 N7 Nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% V1 d- |7 v& L9 M4 D! Kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 e4 q$ P# e7 s& r8 a$ b2 N9 _homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
* m8 Z* R! D% I) @9 N30,000 new households will form in the province during
! W1 i4 k8 u# O. }" U  B9 O3 u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% M8 k2 }. n& cEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, i) \2 y& f! ?( O/ p3 `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 I1 z0 y7 \6 [2 E( Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 g& H2 |( a) T6 k( y& r; [/ f
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# z3 Z# R: b3 c6 }2 ]  Ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% R, v2 Y% O. O; s# L  U$ H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ v! p7 F1 d3 V3 o' B/ n- Rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 L/ ?$ ~1 V; D9 Dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 L* D3 ^! ?" \: j0 K1 h& X$ E
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- }% L$ }. O0 j/ t# ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ a" M1 r6 p8 s6 {2 Wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ p+ \* F8 b  L9 M5 W8 pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( D$ x3 X: u( i, A! Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 Z* G- _% I5 J4 X  Y8 ?( u6 wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: I8 p& C: f7 l3 Y* _7 Z+ Xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 v- ~) v  s/ }- h" I0 v! y2 D" j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& D9 r3 I0 y% ?+ ]# d5 {8 mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% ^9 n/ n+ C( Dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ _' B: c- p; c" w
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& x$ [" n5 j' z+ nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, e8 `' p9 b$ v# w. }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. ]- A3 Z6 Z  f  t( w  w2 Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 D2 M# U; K3 @( e1 K0 g. m$ ]Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ W! y2 q5 S$ T% P# Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& V& |8 d% _5 g) F, W8 mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( O* f$ F- f1 j9 Y5 Tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- |7 u# l0 J  S3 r2 |
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 ?& t+ {0 s1 m5 ~% M5 [on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' o% Z; n' Y3 c: q) B: l$ `# m
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ M5 X9 A2 U- O4 F% Z; B- r/ v3 O4 |. uresale price in February is evidence that past prices! D* c! F- e( Q6 _6 d
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: q: E' i* f6 D6 t5 K7 a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( l* U3 J2 W" m1 F( N+ y* ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 J8 t2 u- N- H4 TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 M0 K# q% P0 n* e( Q& O5 r7 cleg down over 2009.7 S. m4 w! B6 z9 t

% }% \5 _7 Q( k3 {" \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% U7 F) Z% O  M& ]! q* k8 ]; jAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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( d1 g8 r1 @! l& x7 X, v: x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
* R+ o: _8 i2 y4 [% l) m翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
$ z' L6 o' P8 Q" x, N5 r0 [6 T4 c# c* |( U  Y! Q
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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0 j$ G9 D9 p) b3 R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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