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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* _9 g) H4 l& O0 A, e6 O9 L

: m& r& N6 E% C0 ?4 eTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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; k; O" R/ U2 H% `, aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 8 H. {) u: G( F+ B9 g, x

& n# U$ f/ L' l, u+ E5 l" T4 r. q; A"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   O  ?0 q  A) e. Q# |2 L; j
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ g+ ~- L- x7 D
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. / Y) S1 b% \) v$ a, G

+ z# E/ i# M+ u9 }9 a1 ]1 [TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.# ?8 [6 l3 w, b, P

8 e$ @9 k; S. ]1 q$ }) c0 T" ZMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 3 W% N, J, e" L- q. A

1 L" @) t5 J& C" ?- T4 k; G0 {http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 V3 _$ \2 o# {3 g0 l+ S' \0 S7 S 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; G4 w/ u) ~5 B
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 " Q4 j) V5 W  z8 Y; {# g; M, J
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, U* {2 {( n5 v0 H. x- \很多人都回学校深造去了  M( U8 R- \9 A/ X( b1 k7 g! C
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta: a4 j! O, A0 w9 Q& j9 ^0 I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 k2 D1 x. z) y  x* R3 G; p" t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 I$ H) g* s/ z( M
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: p$ B5 W3 E+ ^3 U% j2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) `' P9 ]9 |' p0 w2 N- [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) Z7 {5 f5 h6 g8 m1 kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) s7 `1 U, R4 R
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* M7 g1 I/ q( K# k% Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; m( g- |4 ^# _& L" C+ `$ npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- `. b8 X8 K3 ?$ |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% R+ {6 i  F! b; w7 V$ wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, }# e7 G- Y7 H* \4 V* M& ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 c' l$ z; ]' _5 W* ^) Kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 L% d6 Y) u9 _0 D  |* Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ \* k$ X, t* u- {6 j& Z
30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 F; l* L  [0 k  b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- u; E+ x- }" i0 M0 v( yEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
  J9 v8 ]5 V2 i# w! Z% H! vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ S+ `0 F& `# |$ V
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 @0 g1 ~" ?; D3 G/ b
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, W( `" m/ _. f4 L) p/ C
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 W# G' s5 ]0 Z$ {* i# F' X- e8 Q% cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 f1 @; m7 v( v8 w& N; }6 n
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 K1 F3 q' D' ]3 p' eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ C& X" a' O4 j3 [excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 k+ n; `. \8 A; |6 B7 u6 c! m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) s5 X. |9 o) e8 ~4 Y$ ~* I  e# b
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& K% b  w. `" v) @! |+ W( b+ cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ C% _# }  Y" `- V; x( [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 s" ?# T, I0 y* `
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' I! @8 ?2 m6 v( L' Y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ I( }4 g' T, E* ~% v  irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ U" ?) S7 ~" T/ t. cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ U. a7 a% }6 imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- k2 Q1 C  K; Y2 R5 Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' |+ N: `) s8 e& Hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
  A+ |8 k6 `4 A4 j" eThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 L" e/ b" A9 a7 I: i$ x% c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 b( q% y4 N+ R  oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: o3 @, a+ X' v% J1 X+ `6 `housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 b$ H) k# R& [' C5 orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 M/ I; }  ^  U% ?' u/ C6 {) o
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* F0 ?. h- u7 P5 B! {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) }1 s8 `7 N4 c) ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 F, q% Y3 M. c0 H- nThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 C- w$ Z/ q2 Qresale price in February is evidence that past prices
( R4 `- z- u1 S5 O3 Jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 Z/ c  G2 _4 x2 q5 u& Mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 R# N5 f0 A4 S% u8 Sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ ?/ Z0 |. S1 ^Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 o3 n0 w8 l! w! [, J) P1 R
leg down over 2009.
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" E3 U/ w' I' i% O! V+ ?: ~- J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* b  ?8 o; L. C& G/ |0 [; QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
! q! D( e  ~/ \" l8 j& S2 [3 |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- c0 j% Q  w4 a/ ~7 f  n* ~  U

: r) F. M  `) G+ f7 Mhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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