埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1939|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% H2 v$ i  {' C6 l3 j( n5 ^' E6 T
, h* p9 Z( S" O% s# ~, X9 E  R
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
  z% ]& X# b* a/ v! W& }3 P; S4 M) @4 t7 `# A& V
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * p3 s- Q9 G% a" a: ?. @. }
) R6 \: g7 l5 x& h  ^
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
; U3 s+ A- `2 O" r# R8 m
" C* `$ y( |: b1 k, @Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
. u% _" U) T( w2 W' U8 q: v. Y4 Y, h
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
/ f  u! h0 N1 ~1 Y  m1 H
+ W& G% A0 R% b- I7 H& R. x"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
* H7 g2 r  V$ O6 G  l2 j( D
4 Q% g6 x. s/ _- O/ `9 QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
1 c1 B* U* W  D2 z7 L, T; u9 J
/ k  j  U# ^9 E' K# E; qMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. : @# v2 s- C' ?/ B, c0 f

& p& m. R# O8 z) s5 Vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

2 F, S' h) g: y3 }- C& B% c2 }' x3 B
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% O* h4 E5 i  g; h1 M
( m/ U* m  ~0 n! T  q/ K& G
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. t8 e# b7 ~$ k0 K0 s
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
4 e& {& Y, o7 M& j: J# s' h/ j' `& _7 R9 ^0 F
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 D5 U' }2 ]2 f5 f$ y- s4 @跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

- x3 y7 o7 g( x. x' e1 T/ H$ s9 D很多人都回学校深造去了8 c. P3 c0 O" n  L8 K  }
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 c' c- e1 a' A# W* ^  H4 w: b
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 z5 W' P% o/ z. Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. M" E9 N  Q9 N  K0 Q& p+ S
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 f0 _6 X7 A$ I# ?2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 J8 T. o4 _' k; @) G, pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ v) b4 j5 q/ C/ F/ {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ r3 T1 I* D1 C1 I: @the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 v" q% x* X* T6 ^6 z" I! ]: Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
  p9 C; N) S- v" ^pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ C% l" \9 ]7 _0 c' Jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% F1 o, |: U/ m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 i, s  Y9 t1 b6 u/ i8 X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( g" e5 C: K5 Z9 g, b7 z2 Y# e8 @
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- C6 ~0 b: e- z6 I  x
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# Z# I/ \  r6 Y. W- t7 G
30,000 new households will form in the province during: h3 B9 J5 ^% T9 h
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: Y# a0 B- {5 ^
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( {0 v8 K5 Z/ c- d5 Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- G. n7 L+ Q- ^2 e! Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ j+ r1 b' L' n( f/ G9 k) `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! ^! @) y8 s: }- }7 |
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) l, {# A, D# Q2 yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 d9 R+ n2 R) K" R
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ Q$ a0 M# ]7 r( r/ }( t+ C7 M% Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 F7 K0 z" b4 o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 F6 G3 g; O  Y, D7 L
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' j" H- K6 ]* b: K) q. H# E
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# v5 W! n1 D5 S' m$ J0 Ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% }: w8 A3 N4 L; }& _  k: ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! p: ?& R- y! ^; P! M! E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
  Y' Q3 V9 n3 q8 zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 c( w( z, N- c: O! z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, {, S( k6 U# B$ Mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! P. i/ X, s' N+ O* y: d. D% a' {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 Q* c8 @7 U/ P( k0 e+ E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: W8 |% T6 c4 w4 B  Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ C1 A2 S1 \. e& M% W' b, A2 l  n
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: c6 O* A% a# T( p2 Sboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* R: }* r  {7 H3 J  c9 G$ B% r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 c: v0 ~1 Y* B  whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 g  T4 a7 N! o  G7 T- `4 W5 f) O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. o. c! ^; P% X: o% l
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ S$ \4 S$ H+ ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' x8 A# e. Y8 w0 `; `9 @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 ?5 P: \6 ?. J4 i+ u0 f+ t8 M
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 K7 D3 p: ?% r0 ^) w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices( V* ]) a1 z# ~4 B7 s; Z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  F' {) r- ?3 ^) K' u8 ^& V1 U$ d" m
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& l% o; e: x" X$ {6 a/ Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ h, n0 W- M2 [( a9 @% `; w, WAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' Q; b; L( X' B" Mleg down over 2009.4 c1 m$ B( `+ Z2 m

( c: c/ P. _0 {. C" m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 |  O; C, Z+ X7 X& ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

3 I4 V3 _' e7 X( O  U+ d+ h6 `4 h6 A, H% R! {) H5 G! Z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. + g; L8 ^6 K$ G* V- E
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
4 z; @  }$ S; u5 o0 x/ o- V4 E- ]  A" Y/ @
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
6 v/ N4 t) h* B4 o5 I: \1 w* s% O. {7 n
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-6 14:06 , Processed in 0.152462 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表