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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics./ _4 R3 D  @# Y4 G$ U2 L

  x6 \* `* _* [- Q! y7 w5 c0 rTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; ~6 C, s9 E! k. _3 y! ^( b; X
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : U9 W8 i( n& F; `
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
, q; T2 @  X7 D# s- H' ?9 C  I6 Z5 w$ C8 K% X2 e8 |* a
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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* c9 E  Y4 O8 {* J/ Y6 C7 zMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 H# u; y/ w# [9 Ahttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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: i" \: y" Y7 ^0 W( GTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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3 S# H8 @3 K# G5 S) E! P[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
* v6 Y% o# d0 c 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; d( P* j1 Y: b! x* W9 o! T% H+ F

$ I8 t: b* [& f& N4 e7 {[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * [  Z. \6 t$ u$ z& w
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

- u' b- _6 Q" v; f, F很多人都回学校深造去了
0 }& d% D9 e  |# d  Z1 g$ x7 j嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, T& M- p) k* @8 a6 ^3 fWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 v- x$ h/ {  T( J! k+ k
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 @4 C. b* g5 a$ p& X8 F
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 H0 y! P0 Y' q1 H2 ~6 y* X
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 }' h1 W: Z" K! F! o7 H. Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: G; I. b7 F' y8 Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 s, ]! q/ I& K# z6 c1 bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( u" i4 U" q  b6 v1 A% t' r) I
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% e+ M5 t* f1 s. z* p' |$ s2 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 c' d, l  `, z% {
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 c' v! e8 N  m) Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 ]' N8 w- f) ?) Y) z7 v1 m% ^, Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ M2 x6 R. S- i2 y; c: V: S/ H
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ a9 Z( Q! j- q8 Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
0 I* M2 k; R/ o# x30,000 new households will form in the province during% y4 @1 r3 F! {( Q2 f7 M7 V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 c3 A9 Y/ G% r9 @. S( BEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ [4 W4 X/ _" T; U* J
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ Z0 T+ Q. M) ~* Bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ p' }& C$ D+ a, thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 w! `& G9 v- J4 D/ P* vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 M' ^. \: _; W2 y! S' @9 G$ xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- F3 |+ T7 {) [5 f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- S: ]* o! q2 x% f0 r2 uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& a' K9 L9 W/ o3 b8 N
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( |7 m9 P% p5 S; a1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& J9 d- ]6 u2 b: I, vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* n4 `! l5 H# j' G4 Ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 i: ~1 E1 p, z. Vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 S- ]& W- \1 S) Q4 E6 ?  l% J) |& b4 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 S) ^. _2 O* b% O3 Y! Bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- L& k7 }% _1 I% Y4 `/ A9 v' }& Mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 w( x+ e: X7 e" l& Tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# x) p( _' F6 V+ ?( b+ q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ S, c' E' d4 `6 _: c  b9 Iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 ?$ I8 m1 C" `. q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. V3 m8 H, M- W9 X& e8 @: Q0 tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% D) P5 h7 X: X1 G4 y/ q- ?+ e
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' t2 b* z4 Y+ RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. i4 l  z) M- t- s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! g2 ]9 m1 L, Y7 ^( X8 R. f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 Y' l! S- W) m( }" q% K: Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 H3 H0 ]5 m2 B2 j6 e
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 _/ y4 [( @  H2 d) c' Von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& _3 T. \% b/ Y5 G7 d
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ @! r- Y8 |0 ]6 q4 I7 w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices5 t. L, t6 |: n% u6 G7 i" S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 Z! C3 m: b: ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' z. a/ `3 L- n9 c3 o" V- x6 a3 xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 B" l' d1 {$ d" J/ iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 f0 u0 A# J8 P: `leg down over 2009.
; N% ]' {( f1 A) Z- s8 ^$ b  i' D+ ^" y9 B* {# Q7 A" c1 b
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' {# `" Q+ n8 J5 X, ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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) s+ ?4 F) ?  r: [% ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
& p. |) \6 m& @; Y0 {翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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) m) r; F7 B7 l2 K  h3 ]1 r" {) V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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