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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics./ a4 V" S/ S9 G* c% V5 d; Y

/ f% i6 l3 C- CTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 j* |/ o# b- X# M# g, ?2 e
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # f4 g# M7 L$ |) i+ q+ j

8 ^' w/ {) \* V# N5 ANow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; I& B1 K3 Z' c" z" ?: Y
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- c/ p$ [4 E; k/ n
& _% B4 g( s! O! E
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( g5 s) J! Y, r4 {. K" s* X
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.0 e% y* @/ R) i+ k# m/ e! {- ]6 C/ x& J

/ X) k6 t- P9 A/ U; Z' C6 mMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. . @( M. s9 s4 G8 W, ^
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,* F+ N+ Y0 A4 Q' A  s
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% i# x( V( U; N
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。) H0 Z! r2 K9 _4 q% m

7 N, M8 S6 `3 ~  [3 T9 T& P[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 \% I7 i, g; Q$ F4 w. ]
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
  X4 J! m* O3 {% |0 m8 o, v/ c嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 X& l! M! |* N" j" j+ w( }) K
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 N/ [! B' R6 j  oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) b( H) j5 |2 B$ K5 J: H3 o1 V7 B+ n
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( v& B  u1 N+ p0 c- K) W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household  l0 `1 E- T: H# w* y  I
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided$ ?( E$ a4 @+ U& |( `; ^. a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 Y) C) w. \) B5 X' wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 g* g$ X9 w, Q7 P6 W
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 @% F+ F6 q' \# Bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# K2 z  h* |$ h* i
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 V* X& u1 F! M5 x5 f# Kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 j) }( V0 P, [/ p0 |prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; p3 N, r; B) xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
4 u* J+ C# H# J/ g1 u/ r/ whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 O2 U  R' F6 ]# Z* h30,000 new households will form in the province during2 g$ v! R# n' c4 I. e' I
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 C; X* V1 y9 b, |  i6 |
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( C1 p) v$ J; W1 g6 `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 O& Y2 [# ?" {, R- r7 f: c
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ W! n& I9 c# R! P: ~  a: Mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* D+ E: J. J# ^. Q: v8 Y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# f( ~, R+ X" b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging3 u4 d1 m  e5 V  H3 i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. k) }- ]8 L2 Y7 l6 d$ r3 \) Sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) i% l" A9 M( ?1 U* R" \$ jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 O* P. Y5 D( ?" ~6 M/ ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 ~1 _, {, q& S$ M$ v* G1 d
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 |5 `5 ]8 L$ \4 @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; T" y  _2 j& I
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) w. d! x$ u$ E9 H9 Vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ t, A! X; _  a/ Aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  A5 e( Q1 Z4 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 \  z% f9 J! H( w9 O2 vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& h& X5 r$ Q% S) n/ T+ n1 Q' x
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( F4 ~, h* _  Tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 q6 Z1 s+ k; J- K- ]rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' D6 n& ~' x4 ]; n1 G' ~1 tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 ?( ^) x& i/ E
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 ^7 O6 K: S4 ^: b0 E) IAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan, P& Y$ z* M  C: n. @; a
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, O+ J* F1 I0 x9 n$ _+ urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 p: T9 Q" `7 j: mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ z: v* y- L. }" P: v/ }9 |& u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: F; k% j4 c. }6 k& s: S# V% B! T' M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 ?, O$ [8 B( o4 b" YThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' s' z! T& b3 X& x# ]* E. i
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! ^# O4 @, E; n) o* G
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  f/ Y3 |1 l# E& R" V3 p/ n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ [( l* P3 l7 j0 [& w9 v* v
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ h! |% y; r6 X1 Y7 u6 nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  R( F' K0 s6 p+ Rleg down over 2009.
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) ]2 S, C9 m0 B  c& D. R. S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' w2 ~6 b8 |5 A* T$ o4 WAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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1 ?- i( Q, z) d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 i" b2 U. @; P, ~/ h7 }4 m. W, @
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 U8 F5 H: k5 a4 O$ E0 S
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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  _- i6 X4 L# c0 x" [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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