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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.' ]3 N8 Q- h& p0 ]
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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2 |% Q0 Q% a: U5 q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 4 y, f1 w; V$ W
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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7 I/ j  A+ B1 n3 xTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.8 O9 P, }9 ]! d  a7 Q. O
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 8 F2 [/ E# i  `% B( d2 X

& l( m7 s4 q) q- R  j; X9 P& V- ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year./ g& Y' H5 W$ q& @

8 G3 q5 p: n9 @- s% F( B2 YMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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4 A, I* U# o" K% ~$ u. u! dhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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2 `/ V+ U  n: ~2 E/ n[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 F' H9 s. F, R, ? 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。2 K+ H$ M: }0 K+ \
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
! P4 F9 m! j$ b% d跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了/ K4 j/ ?, ?  o! x) _4 b
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 I& o! u# M0 K, i- }  v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. c! F9 x6 K, \" f
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ h3 U! v" C! x- z8 p* t! Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; Z2 g9 T3 [; [( \9 v4 l5 _& o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" T% f, D. Z6 w& V. h0 n
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: `: U0 Q5 {) w% E/ ?  `from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( G2 r' n, r( J; x1 R# E$ M  O# N* Wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. n% g  N" h3 j$ G7 p, smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 O# V: `. k: F2 ~1 [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 n% B# W, V+ y. Wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: W% u7 c  q8 A
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* ?; G3 s* Y! Y; t0 R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 n# O4 Z! ~6 ~( D5 u
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 c4 d4 K5 M, t- _$ ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% ?' C# C% _6 k; c7 f$ I30,000 new households will form in the province during+ x! q$ M5 `5 f0 {
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. k$ F5 [; d2 _* k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( c6 V, N6 g% F2 [
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ y$ ^2 o8 u' F# h. t. Z) ~# \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 f' H5 w* s) K$ \has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% ?) N2 k; H8 ]3 x
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# f! I: D. X2 O5 e7 y5 k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( B$ @) ]* B1 K& U* J6 N9 S$ g/ Bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 w! C- s3 Q3 s5 y" N. q, o& mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 n9 K( h1 E) f4 j! {excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 I- O3 U' h; B, O
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& C1 E7 l  A" @* P6 T# J# j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, ?5 F# T1 O& Ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ w2 d  C5 Q! {6 J
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( X/ o; K( q# Z4 t4 ?* p! W+ x5 N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ K- V- H# E9 n9 \2 r2 b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 a8 M' k0 t& F; z9 s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 \1 |3 h+ e' B7 \
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ g5 ~5 x- J7 v" Q; K0 w- Bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! [1 q, S% U3 K- m6 s5 p! o
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, i+ j  S2 g; b( ?1 ]  E
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 t4 F* t6 ?, f5 u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# t9 B/ @  c) f8 ~, C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 K$ n, J' i4 ^1 [Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% k/ L2 D  ^+ u/ o* U* C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) k; g* w" i% ]/ F- y/ c( q  x* m
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale; o  f! a; }# n3 F* I/ }: {
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 r, {! ^* K- G9 B& sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
/ m; u# L; S' A! d6 con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! H8 f6 s3 s4 T- l6 z* {- ]7 ~$ H
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) ^7 t! y, U2 O* {2 x1 g7 l, P, T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 t4 n, \' w7 f% r$ W6 }$ oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* u# e. P) I% k7 k
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 A) y; I# p, B( @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! ?; h3 y( E* E: iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% j- D- G2 y9 `3 C9 e7 Gleg down over 2009.& m# y. G- ?9 o. t( I$ K6 T

* o; N5 C0 S, o1 I( e* }' O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 [$ ^2 k& h3 J" v- r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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" W+ N( Y+ B  R  m1 J2 L1 o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. . X/ R: i+ R( y7 Y! ]  L
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子. c& D" Q+ T6 {" o1 |8 v# p
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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