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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( y1 q# l0 K; C+ v5 _3 t
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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: N7 k# i( H/ t+ t1 k3 s- J. x"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." A9 f$ D7 g8 }  B* [/ T
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.! ^: v' y. R8 a( g% n

* h1 T& {4 j1 ~: }0 y6 ?"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 ?! J- c+ e- }4 O  w% A+ e. k

. J& V8 k9 Q7 E9 g' D  B7 q, rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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3 r/ o* a- B. M6 V, f9 l6 w7 zMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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' V8 K$ ^4 {2 M0 O. D( A3 STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,  c  k1 w7 P' C; z# W) n
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" b" l: ?: R, b 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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3 s" a( {6 r: C) K& w[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * {. w1 B0 u) S8 ]- A" [4 C, Y" e
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
4 q1 T. h! i- x  C$ k) x, N嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ J" n: z: R" R  U( q6 y# M: K
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
( U+ F5 T5 f7 ^% @" Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 l! a7 ^, x' }" c: T- t% A- w  m3 Yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" U4 V  R) m% [2 K3 h# X
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; c$ [. F7 Z4 r  g& wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  s9 |* F. s3 [3 X% T0 i
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; l  a8 y& O( z' C" Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: m7 r" w  z2 i5 Fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* L( F  e& M3 u' A6 y5 W8 W$ K% Npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 U% I! k% f/ j, n: V; k& ~" R$ s( ^precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# {  R$ a4 @; u" Gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 ^2 y) g% J) J# c2 _: S' r
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 J5 V4 n) _2 C% e& e2 k* W+ r3 kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ {+ J; I8 S0 Y1 U7 |! Dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 W5 u- r, |5 u4 M8 Y/ _30,000 new households will form in the province during
" i8 i" A) g7 n) c: L2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- Z  a  v5 z6 q4 O
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 Y# W+ I8 v6 N* @& c
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 j$ @0 V, D. \+ q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  W% z! a: B9 N" R
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 N; u( {3 y( R/ Z% W# Z+ V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 L' F6 o  M6 f0 N) |, K; y- z9 F
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ a% [' L3 o  o6 }; v
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; T6 T5 w) ^* i# U' X3 p7 uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 e) \3 B- M: O5 [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) {  ]1 ^/ l$ C% Y, Q# i) q6 R1 S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* `$ y% i( U/ s2 J' Ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" B* ?$ _; b9 w$ W, e4 {0 _buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# Q# x$ l3 v6 a+ ^. ]two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" Y0 ^, E3 u# e0 Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 D1 W7 T! i5 H$ U, O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) a. ^  S! I6 p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, ]& F; B& \, y8 o% nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 T# m  b- D* s" I. nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. j. Z* n, t( q  P/ L5 Y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) D. e  H, K2 Q$ prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
  i3 G6 U/ U& e4 `" l; ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, S  `- b: ?: Q$ Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! \$ B4 x8 J& e. C5 h, |' ~
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 ]! J5 C6 g2 P
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 z/ e; R6 T# D
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  i! ?, |7 Q8 q) I* I$ \prices substantially eroded affordability and, even. M3 l5 a, ?, C1 r3 c" B6 L7 q! y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( _- |$ u; R) A' O/ M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.& y* ]/ J6 `, g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 y' N7 F" S) ^# J+ o' |- g* T! `resale price in February is evidence that past prices# |1 F, T2 k, t1 x6 n' V) a
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 x3 D0 r0 a( E6 K6 {& \, n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 G) n7 A6 B; r' Y1 a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! @7 K0 g3 ?$ F1 H& w- O- L* nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( h& l+ f# e$ y$ A! B8 N
leg down over 2009.
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5 S. }6 V$ _; x: g6 \- z' R, U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 @$ x  B  c' ~3 {9 rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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: _/ u4 I, ?# n" R0 @; c. ^9 ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, l2 I1 [, x, n; @翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& V" B* W, i3 ~# o5 O3 |
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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