 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% U: H; y2 n* R! \( XWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 Z2 h, L; J$ w- i0 r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 A# v i. j4 H9 z7 [3 v* x. `) Aare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; I+ W$ p' o* B# S$ ^
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ O( a* e+ D# j5 C9 U# Fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided {9 V( l/ t7 [! A) @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; Z" y0 n) ^& v/ i! B+ G
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; _# p* H4 w" k# ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ Z$ q( i: Z6 Y8 W$ p- zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 j1 l7 M. f1 T+ |: ?& E* l. O% R2 J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 i: [ ^% w$ |& T% rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) A1 k# }9 B* E* y2 `
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) ], R& G4 D& Qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% ^- h" _5 s a4 j5 W4 s8 w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 Y+ Z. S" Q* G8 ^ F30,000 new households will form in the province during9 o! j/ ~+ f( z0 M6 Z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: [& G" v- j) z# mEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 S5 ~; ], g. ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ c+ d% Y' e/ e: E- v' q5 Iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ v; q/ v8 L4 X& y' q' y2 v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 H% s9 O. | t& u
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 L% _/ { @0 _8 }/ Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& y1 ~; L! M* A9 R$ {, J8 w/ W4 ]sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, m9 _; P7 i$ G# U5 nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* U( a) Q5 n$ E9 L! J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- H6 Q0 h- X/ p: w# q$ |2 C1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ L; x: q4 |+ s. {9 xsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: N) B. p. s0 ?- s+ {
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! ?: g8 W+ j! _# ^! a2 B3 P
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! c0 q# C7 Z! C
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' Y% _3 n* L; Z {
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ E6 b/ T' N+ x8 M) K
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 U3 y7 ~7 b3 o) I2 y
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( \& @: \: y O/ C8 e: l4 P9 }major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 p* ~3 k& q( eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 f: h' q p' r1 y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( S \ f1 ?9 V2 p" |: Y6 w; rThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 D3 g9 ]4 P {, N( F" T1 {7 ~boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* ^. g5 r# F U
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& d0 N; j( `! C* \8 i# ?& Chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ H# [; G; J$ l, q+ a* Irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 d- F4 Z5 f0 z$ Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 i6 N: u( D* N% M- f/ t2 \
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 U, N; j1 I! P6 Z" S
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 v1 G* f. O# l8 l, a, {7 D' ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; A4 @9 k O4 b7 \/ h1 M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' |. P, G9 ^/ ]& l: Zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 v6 V& [2 o1 M+ w( Z# R% S8 X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) |2 q# T: x) E3 z- p: @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) z1 c/ \- @/ p# f3 E; L9 J( B
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%5 k1 `# e- G3 }* R
leg down over 2009.
7 k/ B3 b2 u4 Z# ]
6 A& y1 j& }0 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|