ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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# X* f, P% O( MTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

# ?5 G! X: F( K, f"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

) f' |& N) D$ s8 m, w' f& A+ o) gNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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3 ^0 K4 f5 B2 \4 k& JMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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& F8 M1 ^" L% A! b% u, D[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* P  C  P# U' M% D6 Q( L0 ]跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# b, q# K( C! i" f+ Fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ U$ p5 g( W1 k$ K& P% `: lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 u( \2 F9 ?- m. z2 q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# O/ n4 w$ {* w$ n5 C( _formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ n' y4 `; W0 q) L/ r# gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- `( a2 m$ i7 m. b% a# Ythe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- C. L6 _+ e/ {" K7 [, hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 z( |7 E, W8 [! ]pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 s4 K4 p0 X( N$ |) Q# h& n: S' sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 ]) K- B; V. k0 tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' j" \7 ?" s7 |! Z# ?% [homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 H) C$ P: {& k  A30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 _& H1 u! W; y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 r4 [6 A* y& |; r* ?3 N: `  z5 kEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 w8 j  z) `  `# a# cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; m; u$ a! |( jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 d& Z' G, h. o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ c) ^7 p" @+ k$ E; Psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' P! C" Z) F( P' B/ b' i" Vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 x  Q. f* {" `! |- o; Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 q( e) H2 a1 p1 U/ O. Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ U& M; b; G. a: Brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 @0 F0 ^. }! S; _8 grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 N5 c& I" m3 wThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  `) |# K4 N9 w, pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 j2 }3 j' u2 Q. T* b$ |housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( K- M- x4 a8 K9 @# S& g9 Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ f. h/ J. Y, c7 {9 a4 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, V& {1 p# c4 K9 b7 M( a" xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* ]. g( D3 s3 [; t! v% ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 b/ Z3 d8 t$ l$ M, P: F3 S. }resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  b, q8 O) ?* B  sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ ]" k9 m& i' s+ ]% V. ~! whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! N. S- U. ]5 z0 D$ g9 y% B- H* YAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

+ K# @9 P' \# U/ e- h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. I5 v8 u( E1 x+ d* d& s  `  J" u* `6 `翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

$ D$ n; k; @  P+ M' ?( B5 ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing