 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta: q O# m) U! o; ]. T# P; B' U
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ ?2 g0 m' @1 X5 V1 T( L$ x1 r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 e- p l) J K: \" e& ~are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# m$ j1 y2 o( P! J5 O! M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* q" I5 ^! \0 g* D5 C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# h8 n, c/ V* t; y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# N1 V$ \( L+ }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 z5 ~! j0 U& t) |/ Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
T, c! b" n4 B5 i1 w( Dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 F, q! W% C* Z* g% F) F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. |; j4 U2 u# T0 B4 q+ qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 W" q7 R# U6 [' F t s1 c: x$ ~& D
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& {, }1 f! O5 d& s& G o' fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* x0 R3 E0 Y0 P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 h; k1 a. v" t s3 v& o! w# H! J30,000 new households will form in the province during4 L0 E! A6 |: g$ J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: t4 U2 b3 w5 V N0 f. Z" [2 W* `Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 h1 w* X( [+ U8 s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& {" g% t" C8 n4 _' m
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. ?* {0 O, x( C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 v, K0 [, q* x! O% X/ O- g; ~. B
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" n( b3 C- [1 n4 O
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- `! O6 S$ Q/ J" [) c/ Lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 _6 _* E3 \. O- `$ c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 H n3 R$ e' u% g6 q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( b; n1 N- ?( d8 k2 @9 M _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 {8 V2 c2 a5 Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( _' g f4 q# b! |3 Tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 c2 e; ~9 \* w/ \% _% X! r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- y: I( w( L# [, C8 n& }! U2 h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# C# ~2 j9 q% H# v2 ?1 Y: w9 tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 ?& k& d ~& V4 a8 V ` y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 ]! ?0 b. s2 T1 L1 \
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* g% E( ]$ v( { I& ?
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( | M' ~. [. J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 u6 ]" K5 m! }% g; ^
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
- w# h# C+ B, i9 j P; r! bThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" x: X8 Z7 D. l
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- }9 P! }# t& z/ b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 b O1 w( _; Vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; d4 H1 V$ G' o' o4 ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' F$ T; u* i2 Q3 cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 q4 c* { i; Y; r6 |though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 l8 E4 e5 X' t8 q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; X2 f- _ o9 j9 F0 q0 ^/ u) K
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average o! u0 ]2 I, y+ d8 r( w0 _/ R
resale price in February is evidence that past prices: |* M/ k) _8 W" w2 ^- S1 B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 G; w" R$ r7 b: p9 H' H5 @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* ?) z" G+ R3 r$ ]- U9 t+ i
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% c% d- ^ |7 y5 [. H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ G; S# K( I2 _1 _. h
leg down over 2009.
% d2 N6 @/ r% p8 J1 G, m3 j8 V3 Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|