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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.$ j* @+ X/ [' K7 ~0 o0 @
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
4 m- _' v" _2 e: _+ b( i& O4 A- S4 }, A! f, X" \, W, e. O
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : M/ [2 `& [% p, g. v. S

+ J0 y4 }& L! X* d3 VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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# \8 B* j- X+ k/ b& X' iTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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. e2 W; c& `6 `% ^' a7 z, l( [3 W"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' Q' e0 I# |+ l

7 a+ G6 R: C7 G! g: ~' c8 KTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ Y6 t5 q* h- L- ~. T

0 o/ [) \% L1 }Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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5 f2 B1 u  f) hhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,* F+ Z( i: p& J$ ]( i& @" _
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
3 d3 P0 D  c+ j7 Y$ R9 J 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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. F/ O  l7 p* y. k[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 D  L$ \8 ^* U% W3 x% m  f9 q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了6 h7 M! j; c( ]$ t
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 {# J. ]6 C& {( A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 }+ V! D7 g1 l  h, Q4 vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 X1 J5 C) q6 Y" s. a8 B! P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 A* k5 H- t" [$ b+ `/ ?
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( h. U7 y/ B$ U8 I8 \3 m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( g0 d0 j9 n; j( {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- @. i; }/ D7 G+ a% `1 ~7 G  J0 jthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, {2 h" m; d% e& W& b; i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ j6 }, u  _5 Z0 N( W
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 U& A# `# Q. q+ T( u6 J: _
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% b7 U9 v% r9 }( c2 P& m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 V8 H+ d; [9 W/ ~+ `$ Y! j7 Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 p. X! Q, b6 [6 I9 ~1 Z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 q2 k$ e( g+ ]9 @0 ^9 P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. d1 E0 [3 F$ P- Z5 h5 Q& K: y* m
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ h- [% Z; c& u: f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% s/ x# W( ?9 s/ B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 u/ \# n5 P3 Z0 W3 phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 J9 K' l1 ~, I8 e3 w0 E7 [8 T) ]during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 k" Q+ p9 _' z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! E/ j. i3 B7 y( `& I: {households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 t  U0 e( z9 h) U1 e5 F  t5 c. e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" Q4 o" W" a+ W' }% Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 g9 l: K- q3 x+ H$ r6 U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ P' M, r2 E2 K! c! ^! gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ B( V" j/ D3 p( f# p8 M$ i2 O1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 v) [" b5 e. e" zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% ~5 `  K2 [" kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. U$ Z. S3 d0 x0 r1 P
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ r7 p/ K4 ?6 runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 `( n' {% }. |( h0 T7 J2 q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' W. G1 B& c0 e8 Yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 Q/ J) D5 I3 o1 U" ~  O* m/ D7 Y
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 d  \) C" ]! B3 L+ l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 R+ O' a8 D% iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ y3 D6 s; g- B  Y1 w: {9 irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.  _; \$ V* }  r, ~1 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 B! v! I% q% iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 ?  m; t& ^8 i1 K0 E9 A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( @0 V- i: x$ x6 i4 q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 m  ~: f9 T, t& v' x/ J5 f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) w0 A5 l3 n1 r7 ~$ y- I- |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even. X* p6 ~5 e+ z$ p
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 A/ w& o- K; |on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.' M+ M' ~# F$ }* ?& ^' m. j' f/ G: n
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ X! |- o5 y+ }/ \0 kresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% Q/ a; G! y7 _+ A) Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, n! {2 o/ \' D3 D; ?homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( {0 s7 L' @  G4 G% Pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* z0 \, g. h" B7 |
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 {* t" f/ ^5 _& E2 sleg down over 2009.; b: }/ V% f- p: n4 P- P; p

  B* D2 F: |0 I9 H: @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 ^  `% g9 J# }/ EAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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8 }. ?. ?7 ^7 ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. + t7 G. h6 t' `( `7 q9 N
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子  L- h6 P9 z* i3 |( P

; D% ~$ v/ v$ o$ n% X2 c5 \http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 `. d% p- S0 W; {1 o# r9 ]+ z) L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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