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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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% m/ K% P- F) \, d3 {2 W1 oTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 X/ c/ Y" C7 W- V

4 w% r! K! F6 ?) R1 Q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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" W5 z2 t* z$ O1 T) {TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., N' Z) }" b  k' z% N
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 K$ Y1 U2 j+ I2 h% X
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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4 }( ]8 F, Z' O1 n, r; q1 `, i" ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 t. a$ z2 C2 k8 r
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
+ n" K# t- b" a% I 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* y" A. t0 H1 W  [6 ~
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. G- o0 `: x6 ?2 Z, |  H跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
& S: }8 P% E! m嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
  h2 L- Z* C. c1 w- ^4 c% E2 jWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) T6 n9 Y& V9 _. |4 a8 R
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 F" p* Q% x6 S; Y! M1 i* [are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 G% h' J* }- Q9 \
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! v  F# l) t9 `
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! {7 g& Q5 J9 T9 D6 H7 }from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 O5 ?9 R) ?7 d' Q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% T) D2 G2 g& H- J& r& a( J' [. Wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ I: i: ^! l* g1 `6 q/ s, e6 l8 ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! D, @9 w" F2 |- l: uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 y# Y) |- D. o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 o: \* l) T* `prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# y+ }  |) b7 d  P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( O( Z+ c3 ~; C) e; ]  H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! n7 h" v, S" z9 L, O  B' v2 I) a30,000 new households will form in the province during
% n7 T8 h$ E: }6 q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- p. s9 T7 X! O  S6 sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' ^) Z0 E) x, I# i; p
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' G9 O2 k' q$ k/ j) l6 |- D
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. M7 `" F5 ?  p& Q. p& x! _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# W& f; B3 O8 c: lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. Q; G. F5 u3 I/ W4 {5 ?5 iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 I) D, k5 V/ t6 L4 A
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, ?! M, E" m% O' R1 X* W3 b
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 |$ d1 G. l4 f+ R3 {excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; J7 v, J- N  }" a5 b
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; ^6 p6 U( M& l0 d1 V* v7 z$ Psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' [8 L6 ~6 ]- d; X. t' x+ X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 N0 P  _9 n% A1 M! `
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ T* v) g  A1 Q; ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 x5 f( F1 Q; p% _
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  m) F6 t2 ^8 P! r3 J1 X( J9 Irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, ^% G; u; p, u  F3 p8 o. M- G
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% Z) Z2 Q& y2 ^5 r
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ y! p: z0 \: ~/ i* nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* ?4 m. ^7 B. _8 _4 b( S& y2 `- Krapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# u4 `' N, J- S2 FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 R7 O* Q* x  \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* h) j- w) o+ I& u7 c* RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan: B. C2 a+ P6 R$ e0 z# L1 p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* l/ R9 ~8 `; Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 b* y" x3 q) U) r' D" R! B7 rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! j* D* D! [* F  s$ B" ^# g* g- Xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" [9 L1 L4 [5 t# v6 Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- w3 }5 y: x) P, D5 N' s( o8 w
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; u6 E+ ]$ L+ v3 T+ v: F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 [& }9 T* J; L4 k2 q3 S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) T7 U4 X: o  A( chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, w  d8 o. W" G4 I- ^! {2 _
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: l7 A; A! c; [0 S3 YAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 E3 `, |5 t/ P" u
leg down over 2009.
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3 D) q+ \8 D) v$ m! ^. ], T[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- T4 K: {8 h5 i6 K5 \( G$ b1 F& b
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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2 E% N, }, E8 s" G- |1 f/ g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. . `5 v  S' @4 R% ?5 s
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- U% Z. B1 ^0 r1 z

& X& M! _  `* x1 h5 d( o  qhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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