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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* j$ p) _: n2 h; M; I( [' }: x; z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ w9 f4 i/ k4 ~6 s6 j( a3 Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( Z# a, ?" A3 `# e
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# T" g2 J! z' g# U: u3 w2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& \. v5 R1 E# e- }formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: f9 v/ s! m6 ~+ r0 P# ], Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 a: w$ [* t* b) h& a- `the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! d8 `+ L/ Q$ g J) G) O- p
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 N1 a. B: r4 a7 Z2 H$ t4 opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 v) V" `2 ?$ _! h3 }' x+ V% {precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ l1 ^$ j! C5 s, o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: ^' x7 A( H* C2 V# f, y Kprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ T, N" e' x- X& e6 r8 `# p6 ^year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( Q+ B% I8 H; y0 V
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 U% H A' _% S9 l: t8 B. M
30,000 new households will form in the province during- V$ o- {: j8 i7 V3 M9 |: X$ F/ h! ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) T, d% r# Y0 w: w2 X- r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 t+ C# y! T& d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" [7 m) @' B& u5 e/ l. J( d8 e1 T, f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! b. m6 s. z# ^
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' N7 ]/ U! d6 G) r; y6 F( x+ Phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- i' C0 P; _& y4 ?9 m! w. Y- r4 x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ z3 h1 m- Y. K+ Q1 U3 K
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& f# o; i& A9 w) w0 o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' y0 Z: D1 } N) ?excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ j; n \1 }/ t1 s- s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 _6 Q" e: v' r. ?+ U9 Q; wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! B6 m! x% Z' H' g) k8 T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. g. s: E7 P& n8 R
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ _; Z- d; ?- i( Eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& \: } h7 b7 n) O8 W# c* }unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 d2 e) x& z! x+ V1 `" w5 @2 M) erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% D. ]4 T) O# k) ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% W: P: c' _- B' ~, O% l3 C' K3 Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, I7 ~/ A5 ^. R. |5 Q- ]' ~of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 v& b w+ ?3 ^# R
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: u) p7 K# i/ u; F+ I# `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 D; J# w! m! R9 H+ t( z- |
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 b- T. z& D" t4 I( x( g" l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& y6 e0 [$ `8 ?' f4 c1 \. T
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ ~0 Y8 T4 }' B8 }' n, e4 S5 n
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* m1 Y9 p' o4 b- P+ l/ z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! \$ C: C) L. X
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% u+ V: M0 k1 l9 L* W" aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- B0 x7 B& h2 t. n$ {The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% x- j+ w5 Y4 X9 z$ B. S* \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# h* h/ M( w5 J/ R5 {: aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# g, d: f% ? f. I Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ U4 f* h! i+ U1 [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ Z7 ^3 b8 t: E" o# |* V: VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- C3 K& X" ?- w; [4 E
leg down over 2009.
" i. T9 M" h. m/ Z5 _5 h8 ?. m5 `% |4 ?2 P! y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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