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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta ]5 j5 m* c: S y: V6 N" Q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 Q$ v+ ~1 H& [8 k7 k$ l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- @7 d1 S h- \ k; i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% A @" Z! u4 N- c7 `. A* d
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 G& ]1 c" }5 Y( K. `( kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 q, s- a0 R" G3 X4 Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,0 G" C/ B: G7 D' m# n; d
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 b" e- C6 K) O
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% o" M' u4 {& jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( h8 a2 w8 M5 y- Q& W; C$ Pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( Q3 e$ W+ L! q( l/ a$ T7 Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 X t' W" J ?: f8 Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) T, v6 W2 T7 Q' Z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ @6 E1 \- n! Bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around% y8 m- N" `- C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
# n2 ^7 \" t& ?* f `' k2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 \" t/ U- c @! Y ^# A/ T1 L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# u1 u1 O0 W, o1 T$ d' v3 O! Z+ Dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
}/ N: A6 ^0 g3 P' pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* L7 a/ ]8 I6 w7 D- B
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& b m8 I9 s# A8 f+ ^! O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ }8 o+ e ?% H+ @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 ^6 C. `+ i. k8 {, I* O& H% ^
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 R' {' @! H$ x6 R' Q5 gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 x$ K/ j, n$ [: f, {' @* p( @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 B9 P, v4 l9 L7 \7 e3 Q; q0 e
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& x) V5 u h) x9 x: ~+ ~sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" ]0 p7 D2 O( O% Q5 [/ H; b6 S+ ~* R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. J* C3 R; f$ `% ]" X2 i" Stwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 d; N# g% Y5 X6 v% {$ e* W0 ? f( @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 \, F; k) h4 ?* U7 s7 D
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 u% w' H3 t5 k* r
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' ]. r# ^- y5 f! V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' m8 B `2 v' ~7 ~major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. \' L7 v" a+ S. E% e: |
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled7 w" H$ ^4 ?% m% G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' f+ V& Z" i( ~# [6 c6 eThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) e; j0 H+ d& t; F' P
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ n: a6 D9 K" {) B- w' fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( B' F; d2 |" T b3 Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 N* h6 H( z8 x! X/ J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 Y: J& E8 M1 j) Pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; x) i" G3 g# ?7 j! S, I3 bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 G3 c, |3 D: H: g4 }: c3 L2 i, n
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# Z: q4 G* x z; \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% M2 H# O1 ] h% ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices1 P8 }7 Q2 ?) f' X4 A
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ C/ u$ X# U% Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* z5 i2 ^2 E3 @% Y1 t8 e: n
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 I, M5 U/ S4 N0 N$ e# OAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 A* x+ }2 [% {. [/ Gleg down over 2009.
6 @( v% {$ A& w
$ K* l8 ^# h4 k8 N3 x8 A! r. z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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