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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta# e& a! u$ ]9 f* q2 X8 E, Q/ L
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 {; E# e- I( ? o0 [
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 ^) S8 q0 ?, i% W- Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- I' A: v( \! a: e& s! V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 U3 `. E/ j5 @' a+ x) l/ ^$ bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided+ t7 V( j: o: }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 [# ? |/ ^$ ^3 g. Xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, ~/ k% @9 p9 Q. g3 r: O. y' b$ \7 k: Amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. J& r. D/ {6 Z" epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
A! v- W/ F3 d! bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; a1 y/ `# U$ w5 Y% L! C( Rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 s3 O0 {$ k# Z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this% C. @7 \" e- ^6 R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 S1 g; X+ A6 f5 h7 W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 D% m0 L; L s. ~& G
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 G+ o2 l0 E; p: R7 j* X. ` C2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* X% j3 c1 X$ d, x g) q$ N3 X
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 i# H# q4 P* ~: {: _homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# s! b# F6 J! R1 A$ K8 sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" N6 Z7 E0 C& ~! A* whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; {1 B6 V% z+ o0 y3 Ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 F, k+ }9 [) w: Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 R% M) K" @' I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 Z' f6 T: \1 l j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& A4 v7 g& D( \& ?! X' [8 J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 b8 M! K* U! E9 _# u y. Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 y1 |7 [% _9 |, w
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- X2 S: d$ C. n# Q% dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 l: t( \/ b. p+ g
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 J$ r. ]4 R. C9 ?) [
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) K) q a+ v1 Z( w: b) }
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 \) P$ T# G# t9 i1 O, g }1 r
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the A C+ `1 e4 d$ b1 I1 o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% T/ c0 ?: z- ]! a+ m( @major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 }+ n. q/ X4 Tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 ` G0 x) k" ^% l7 L
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 y% }9 a+ \6 w) R) ~6 O) TThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* S+ F% W6 {+ [6 k6 S* `
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 P Z1 m/ b n f/ k. \. O: CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan X W! c( [* h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 C l, W& u0 z0 R& @! M0 u0 o' Hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ ], d/ u7 h2 S4 _% t+ qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even" d L* R4 N" v7 q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* T: m& w: U& b& t6 don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ V2 R* j" \0 UThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- p- u/ `- P2 y* i3 qresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 X4 `/ Z8 M5 a1 n8 `* ~' O! J, qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 g# T( U3 c; O6 D3 z3 Mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! b5 v" r7 ~$ X) \( wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," e f+ |$ x* j9 x
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' n( Z' H6 V3 x8 ^, h( s
leg down over 2009.
+ x) \. I9 I; `& q8 t7 V8 n3 V* B$ |0 X# B' P0 Q9 I
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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