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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 b5 H3 R5 ^" L1 x; V: Y
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. - |+ e' }" d& k4 O
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 ~. v* A- ^/ ~( N  E; a& g

! k/ q+ y: w7 J( `5 `% g" nTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.2 \$ R3 K6 J+ u3 R' U- }
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 ~. `, a! g, g- r3 N1 E6 v
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, s, |3 J2 F. K7 x- Z2 y5 L1 aMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 l+ C4 }* W( \8 T6 Q7 _3 q
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! d0 x" u4 `/ e1 A6 r! @2 \
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
0 N  d; B6 Y, x: k! p 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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! V+ @* H! \' ?$ Q[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , \. R7 e! [) N8 z& F
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! D: G' |) i# e! `很多人都回学校深造去了0 h5 u: R7 v8 ^- X; H) F- r, S
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta: m0 }# n$ U0 M) |  \/ `
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' W( U+ T( Y: q* @2 R
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# t) N# Y" C0 k& B$ s! G' f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: g- {$ H  a2 O
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: {: K. k: W, }) A9 t/ l4 c) d
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, Q. p/ W5 l* K$ a( I6 T6 G8 V
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' s$ H0 N) Z$ C4 |the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 A7 H+ ]& s; H. z9 M3 _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% n* G; m* d% R: S0 q4 D1 U
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" O0 o' O- w6 M+ `6 ]
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ D: d, h) q  z! r1 W
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ I- z5 L+ g" `0 s3 Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- u* G  U6 t; g/ g" W
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. ~: a/ F4 ~$ m9 s) n
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) J/ w" [8 X: o) O0 E2 X
30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 N" e( _6 y) D9 \9 U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 B4 n- V7 l; `! E7 [Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! Q$ z* t/ y5 g; y) S  E8 p4 h5 ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ f( i4 S/ }4 [# Iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! w. O4 s1 U6 I" k% @
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' {; d; y2 m8 x# b" y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! ?/ A' f. S9 Oduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& A! d# K" W, d" A. P* vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  p4 s- c2 R* }$ }! }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, L* w( J; R- D' T+ O
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! y- S" e4 N- }, x3 a0 a
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- l9 w' m, ^' F, K5 m. y0 I2 y7 U1 jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 _; N1 q3 R- ^+ W  ~+ s7 Bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  q1 K! L7 j3 L3 S2 x" b% Ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* E+ \0 b, a, K& z) Cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; u$ F$ p* n. j2 ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 w& `4 ?7 ^2 B. a6 _2 J7 A
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ h  K5 ]/ H, H, l+ B7 F  o" d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ Y/ L' y7 q* G) s/ R
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( n# j7 a! t& C
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ r% z& Z) p1 T8 mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 ]4 t5 q% @$ X% k3 wThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* E( Y2 m5 X" p2 ]
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.1 U1 G1 O6 g% _7 W) a" E  b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 `# _  ^1 I: J  z5 G# F4 N1 S
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 V# X) ]8 W& `3 L" w3 F
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) K4 n' R* B  K6 ~2 c! P+ u  Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 N2 T5 j5 [4 H# J+ Z& athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 m" Y$ {* ?+ Y8 f' L% Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 B$ I& e5 R0 P% l% w" XThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, X0 c) [; \. p; ^! p- p# G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% j, e1 |( T! `: M+ o; S( ?
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  b# T: F- C. xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% ?; [/ Q0 @1 ?) t  @( r- w0 {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  m8 y% q# e5 P7 e
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 u6 q# O. ]$ D4 ]; s  H6 lleg down over 2009.
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0 G# V! \6 c* F4 m5 h3 G2 }/ E, j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' e9 P$ X8 `7 \+ U
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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& ^5 u2 I& o& m) }8 i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. % S6 `9 ^) N/ m& k* g. I
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments0 ]: K5 \8 s3 n

: E( H" X; E& A! \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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