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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. C* K) m/ A7 X8 U6 N4 uWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 ?$ t$ e' j5 R) P1 Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 o) ]' m5 X# u J9 G# @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 W/ |: V1 O/ [1 O5 n! T0 p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( L* n2 a8 x }% {
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# v% g0 f. y+ G) {9 a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; {6 W9 m. L6 [
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ @! ]6 N) Y$ W2 T, @' ?0 L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 ]; n2 u1 G, C3 X- H" n2 lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ L e! O9 h$ m# J/ _4 M8 ^1 }7 Iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ u3 P% Q7 j& d$ l- u; C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 w+ ~, H. p% j* }( B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ E) [" J0 f; m6 o6 |: a: I
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 q4 _% L5 O) H b" `4 F
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 f ^$ ^0 _, [5 B* _( q, K2 ]# P30,000 new households will form in the province during) w. D: j, \% k+ M9 F6 \3 Q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 O6 b2 F+ Y a$ sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( A! m6 B! H, o- Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 ?" a) G, L: H8 \4 `
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ f9 I& q3 [2 Q$ B( B2 u, ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* c$ l/ x' a8 h7 ~ r3 O2 h$ mhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 {% N0 Q8 X, W& V+ @- g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 E8 C/ |4 E7 Xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 F8 Y4 e& q9 a1 Z# e/ P: S, C8 Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* P6 A' J( D( V+ `
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
s w7 B! x. q: p# H4 ^1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ l! U) v# S$ c+ k5 |% B# S' osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 E* U& h6 U5 q% j$ |: K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 K9 j, o; j B/ d1 N
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- k9 z% ]1 ]6 c
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& I9 r; d' n) a& r* u
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) O0 p* b# j$ C; a; s0 z/ R' u! Y% v Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ {9 e4 y; x0 ?+ N8 g u; h# m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( _ X% p& ?7 g( i7 ]# b) Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 N. m6 }% | T7 x% Wof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 M' Q" m5 w$ O1 c3 e( X/ Arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! [5 V9 e k/ q6 A1 k3 qThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) D4 ]1 u4 b2 d1 j8 L5 ?6 ~- g6 Jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. c& Y6 `, t( j- q) Q/ k7 FAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ l4 S: I+ S, G$ ?4 A i4 Uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
G# M, _# Z) T% O2 H$ _# r1 o/ N" crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 }! B6 i5 _. V0 Q8 i* Iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 S2 `& T$ J: _# s/ n0 K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 \$ u5 c5 d: Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ c# L' l0 B# O8 Q+ y- JThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 a( f9 V8 i+ I
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, x* F# m5 |9 h( Y8 L5 Wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ d3 Q! N7 n! J/ Y4 }# vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' B2 T. r5 h& V1 rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 m" ~6 E* k0 T/ h. i( g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 |9 w0 i$ ?9 I* f* H8 N9 ileg down over 2009.
S Y2 }. d% e. G0 l/ n+ P( t/ K. f5 J; P7 Z' T A! k
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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