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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 `3 o1 N9 F CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# P. v% M# S! f: v% n* N& G* }boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ G6 N8 h, y% Z; ^. k/ D* o
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( ~- ~3 e; }- J" h
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 ?( P% R3 p" xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) L5 @2 h4 w' ^4 xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
T" Y" z# s* j# r0 b8 g! @the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& I* W& |$ U; H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- q! B+ ?- |4 u" xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& @4 j9 a# J* {: m1 V4 k9 `" g* w* R: oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 |* G* N4 F2 L9 _% Y, Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 h. R- p0 I) k' t @prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 E- X* K5 l' R' m+ _1 b7 S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( D& C1 S" u- U8 A& qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% _* i) _- O" O4 w7 G, l/ `30,000 new households will form in the province during
! Y0 N# B4 a4 [; V0 t+ D5 K7 m( j. k2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 w; V. q. x' K( rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 M b, h& i' }6 z. X' fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ X$ ?+ N; @! H; e6 X Q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& x# p6 b9 x2 @9 C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& Y5 A) I( D- [8 O8 Q2 k7 H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 f. R; b% d& E. s+ g! f+ Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ \' c6 u% i. s3 P2 g$ D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 J6 F4 x, I: p9 q. ]% xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, C% q: R0 N+ D$ X& m, i+ t r uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% x* `* I4 P; X6 {6 M9 s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, P( E& P0 B6 Z3 G& {8 zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) t4 P' ?/ {' K" B+ K' i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ @2 U! _; n# g, |
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
' c* |9 t% x: j& R; @8 Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ j! s6 C, [2 [- J, Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" t' U4 l/ |8 s# y1 f
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" o5 |% U* J3 h' m: qresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( S, s4 Y# C3 Z0 E* K- P3 h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 E( I N' b* j2 ~
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. E, r( c- d) k7 r6 T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: F' T$ n" ^ u/ m$ d
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% S% x$ a/ x1 b( L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) _( v2 _7 w" R, v! U
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan3 y: n4 I- U; z# l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ K. |) c1 |- v/ N6 f& D( E- x
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ w* z6 e7 d9 c7 Iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( v# |0 E) m: n+ P: ^
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# N5 S2 D/ ^ g, Y# ]; V: Y. x
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. `0 U! Y0 t; a$ L7 S7 `. b
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ B. [* {5 Y" ^' V0 b7 @resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; H2 ` r9 D" ]. i) M5 x; dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' x3 j7 } W0 x) A9 h4 n4 X) l, Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 F2 }2 g2 V" M* z
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ J' O D* w# c8 O4 ?0 t+ J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ R( M5 \! B+ K, c `: Q; ]
leg down over 2009.
. b( Y+ I: w5 n% M) ~3 T
. [! _! ]1 N6 C' J) N& o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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