 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta1 r0 M4 B* `1 e$ \9 S* L2 g! Y7 c
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ `, r0 @% ^) f- c* Tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; z h- x8 J% ]
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' w ~' L* c8 V2 U$ a6 R+ P2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. c, h1 J' F4 i# L2 ?+ bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- ^. w7 {6 }- j! Y J9 G
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 y' |$ k* \" kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 ?. v' x9 }& v" U" \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' t+ |4 D) g" C' U! _7 @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" j U9 u3 S; H! o. j1 G9 U( O5 Jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# ?& M0 H( `) P. T9 l, g9 {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" D% A3 h# H# G% tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; n& T5 \/ p; `1 j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ B& j% _7 } ?: ^: E7 H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" P3 ?( c5 s! v8 ~& X/ Q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* k& g; T( I) W. M3 t+ Q3 u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 T+ w' t+ h' w3 \* Z9 O k0 zEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 D8 H/ p, w# _9 ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 o' i- Q: U& H) J4 X
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta i$ C* l8 |$ G. b2 [8 Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, s& [- M! x* K( ?0 {1 j2 f, Thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, y {9 t* m6 | @; [/ eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. h1 r. ^% H/ Psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
+ O- H) D) d3 O% h( g8 Rclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; n" t4 |: c2 w: @& Eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 A, e N% k7 ]4 y3 q/ G- z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, [5 D$ P8 E! B/ [; {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, D. U, D1 j, {- { T: }) K( F
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) ]" |" r% B5 ?% G$ i4 utwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# V& L% s$ m0 g3 G
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. K; m3 G' J5 T& P+ ^unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 d9 Z0 E; `2 k# ]2 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 E% R6 [% m: R& r+ d5 `& ]& E# wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 o. x d7 F7 m4 s- ?0 s% S; E
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 S3 z X d# Z. V& s; I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 a5 c& W5 {% s2 W) ^" k
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 x# W$ |0 W1 W6 l" lThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) k3 q) h3 a5 c: v/ U: T7 k$ }boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! [4 K. x7 ]/ H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
# P8 o; i- ]4 i. qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' o" V9 q _) \/ l% Arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& K C9 b. m( r
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 Z: y1 c, N" n$ E, |" p
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 g$ N2 V8 C& Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ X3 q8 p# h, ]% W* g% B1 iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ D: y! Q' @" q$ {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices& z, B3 J4 X1 X" {
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( S% j1 E1 G7 D- l0 d2 g
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% q5 x8 i( q" U/ k
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 P3 @, d6 K4 J& k1 [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! M |) n/ V! n" Fleg down over 2009.% Y% p! `6 G5 s* B" b* @
5 Z4 x. E+ F; C' V
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|