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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
; ^# }/ d! W3 C }* B0 k* iWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- v5 M$ c5 r2 X5 q4 y( v/ r% g
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 N( U" f9 ?/ t$ w: }) w4 F: Yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 d8 W+ ~2 J& K$ { m7 p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 i' K) i9 n1 _6 _% D$ p* |% P7 ~" qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) e- `' r9 ]/ e5 v5 V: Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 N: _8 B! M1 X( X/ mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 p7 X, i$ A; O5 u
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; Z! z# ^! n Ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. B' g9 Y9 i6 o% B7 t; `
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ d7 f& x% T* q$ O: o3 oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" ?/ w6 t1 v. |9 l
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 C1 N) f o6 l( t/ @* Q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ U. S1 D9 M/ A9 k/ b% L% Whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, W$ _2 Q( o" D' W2 e30,000 new households will form in the province during
- ]1 Z. e/ d2 ^/ b( @: Z' w2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 g5 h l5 ^, f* R) Q/ @0 }8 L! a
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% L% l" y3 {* u6 M' f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ B. b7 h4 K0 g$ k" Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) ^6 T& y+ k, ~8 n
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ G6 T; @& ^. M& O( Q2 R3 O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 {$ q! L( l* w( z* L5 j
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 B- }/ g" r0 G. Ksales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. f& |9 \ G( h) n* j# L
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; P7 U( l7 U' `- gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 `6 r/ c: B9 a% c& J9 b& K& L
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 [* ]/ S, M) m3 F1 u3 Q! O$ D2 u2 V
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 D- z" E8 `: C% I
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ y3 H8 Z: c& C( [# T1 M
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 [! g% r8 ^4 k4 Z, k7 r" x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' x, a6 ~7 g Q6 w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ E; L* E( s; z+ u0 y) M* L) erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 Q6 s9 B0 Z6 {) H! I0 g& A l" H9 dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& e: k8 _. K- |7 S8 \4 i
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 ` N+ s0 N* M1 f2 Q! K! R& U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' b0 F2 A6 t6 k7 O
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# n% k" ]4 c' d$ d7 r' Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 W2 O p' h7 g3 k" u9 ?( N. S3 Q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 N. C4 Y0 I" ^" [2 G0 S' ]2 t: j: n1 j- PAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 m9 e! F) M3 C) v5 n6 z% ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 f" H8 D4 g) \: o' i' F- B0 |5 i: Krelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 l$ ]+ n$ t0 D3 t1 oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, S! i, J( j8 O3 X Kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ r9 T% k( B/ U3 @+ W# B2 \) K
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* J- I# K R8 H, UThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 R& n# B8 F& S2 m. k' L% O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% P7 i& W& z6 s' N- K* a8 }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 y+ I$ N# D ^
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( u8 w {( M- L! P% R0 g7 C! Tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 U2 N1 l7 E" L' W: D
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. }. p3 X* Y0 [1 n7 M: k# G
leg down over 2009.- P7 ^0 l' q, U* ?4 M" f
7 y; R Q5 ] a( Q: T7 w
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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