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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. , B( u2 y( t# R& P

2 N$ t3 {; ?( b% N; vThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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' u( C) f8 t6 V$ \9 O, p/ s0 {+ p* |Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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) f9 \9 f/ ]) Q! k1 K! g% y% F) c"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- U$ z3 f7 }0 Y2 }Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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- a  `2 a9 V/ w( z8 N- I) }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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0 {& [+ F# {9 {, q- U% b( |[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; w7 w5 Z. P/ M* O" ^9 [
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- x: h  Q2 J5 B& d) j: b& O[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 1 G, V* f$ F0 g& Y& b3 Q1 `
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
' e: i' e. n% j. ^5 L" N; L  n嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
7 \2 p! P$ k1 i8 K: A) SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- P+ Q) d- P  J, d0 e1 S
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 U3 u$ p( O3 {3 w
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 @' [& L6 ?3 r. r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 }$ Z6 S- _5 }4 M- |formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) m$ _+ G$ v( ?- }! Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
0 J" m4 m6 v" t- Q( Qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. Q8 r1 V* B, r3 k, K$ R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 l+ @+ P: ~3 B5 O/ `7 Kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ {( |( d% Q  J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% H- N, |/ F( u. U$ G! ~: [; P6 W
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 n5 B& E6 z  i1 K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" C" J7 Q/ ^$ c  B& G& F  N
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! P$ v3 g: n3 bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 U' [7 Y4 J! k8 O/ m/ i30,000 new households will form in the province during8 m1 s! ~5 y; _: [  M  F# H( M7 O* y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 U8 y2 |, b8 M8 ~. PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! T: f& C" n9 K' n$ m
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* r' x9 n4 \# t& qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# K0 G1 X1 R9 q- a: `+ g' F/ M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 E9 S! ]6 w% h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 C# x2 f$ `, H. v
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. g9 t6 f- A$ S3 n( Z/ J3 Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 [+ \! r2 Q$ m. ^5 |; Sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" _7 }1 ~3 U' {3 k
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ v! w2 e' Z" q+ o$ {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 Y! W) D9 ?. y8 o* M6 i% U
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 P+ A8 T5 X# y( fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# o% b* r- s, d2 A7 ]
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" |0 ]" v0 t7 u* M2 V& I2 lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. R3 f" g7 b& G1 S; ^+ @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# g3 G) v2 }7 m/ s: }' E
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 R' H2 Y. D% W6 j
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& I/ x2 v) l0 Q+ M: tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. ^) o: G  @/ u2 tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled% A4 m, R4 z' C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. o, c0 V. Q& x0 x; O5 iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) g, B% j% [9 C. x# y1 U! aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* E9 h: r3 n  m) I2 i. q( YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 s+ A3 ^8 y4 N/ b1 U" L
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* r4 U% C8 P6 i+ S4 f! Z% D  c
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 ^0 R$ d' T0 Y- I" P% gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, r- x4 p! Y; Y% ?% uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% l7 A, y0 Q( ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( \/ D4 k! r' n6 I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' s: J9 y0 Q) V( Q0 D
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! G2 ?, C/ t* W( x) u' f# Oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- u' Z# @" N7 s8 g$ f
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 n! ~/ f  h3 I  Y  @$ @
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! R+ Q2 C2 ~% L/ ]# q/ ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* ]9 [, ]& U% [# J4 {
leg down over 2009.
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, u1 i% U- t. i' n' W2 H3 p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. |4 z5 c* I0 R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 e& H0 G2 A# a翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子5 Q7 V7 k/ h+ x* V. F9 a9 p
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" Z/ c$ ~) |4 X3 }8 U
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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