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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% l3 O0 q6 \3 c1 @% R# J

/ Z7 E" Z1 y; K' @$ V( b  mTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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. f' Y; ]' f& J! I; y3 `5 \- LThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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+ J$ x9 N8 f# ?4 z"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 x$ z+ N, f. b. O  G

( d& q  C! h. c! i; ]Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. k- ~4 ^6 F& o9 Z
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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+ A! ?1 y# A) ?" H) B; e"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # c! ]3 {- V; Q6 D
% p4 [3 }/ K, H3 v0 g$ ~$ f  p
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 B9 o9 }8 b# U& u  Lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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+ F3 z- f! g2 C8 n3 |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
$ l( h$ K! g& h2 [( ?' J, A: F3 P5 o# } 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。/ Y& r0 h  m! Q# _

4 n- m; _+ b2 O. i[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ( L( ?8 b7 z5 e* W
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

7 Z- H5 j; U- g5 ?) T0 x很多人都回学校深造去了* Y9 ^3 ^7 y- ]- f' k; U1 D; X- g0 r
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta% b8 F# C: t- k/ Y; M" ^# n
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 }6 y- C3 r" Z# H  {5 \# e9 v  zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 V! D6 ~# i! E$ k# kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 T- H. q. P# k# R5 n
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# l6 L2 f9 p' z' Y( s
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- {7 B( \$ h  u) ~/ g
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 Q: E! p! l9 j$ P2 _4 t5 x. j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 z0 @6 @% _) C( H9 Z" t& V, fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- B6 C/ X) y( ~9 Z% m8 R' P8 }pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 k' C$ p  p7 e) A' }% _precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 I' X! B/ ]0 I0 k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 I1 U* x, E- \. Y) x% H+ o
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' H2 M  G2 g8 |/ k; B/ `
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 O3 }+ W$ ]* t  A' V! z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 }4 j2 B0 o0 B* s- Q& Q30,000 new households will form in the province during1 ]; u) e0 T* T. |1 t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" }7 V2 M# q% U8 N1 b  j2 j5 REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s7 P* t7 g& r/ e1 R5 F6 R7 c
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 U' q( d2 K# o" nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 l0 J8 a3 f9 A$ ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" M- I$ P* m6 i9 X( i
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% n) x" ]  K6 ^5 e1 D5 C" m( _8 ~during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 S# N9 c- a3 @* B, R( s
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, [( I* @- F9 f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is  G; `; K& w. i6 `" X; G1 @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 Q9 C* b& F+ V9 X+ d6 P1 H) Y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 g' T# a' v! R5 s) tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) q2 u+ b0 c+ Q2 C5 A, s; _! R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 Z2 l8 j! D5 O5 g$ N2 f9 J/ W
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" }! j" a1 Y0 ^. xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% ?2 `+ S, N0 D& J! `2 Z4 h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: C* x4 M( I$ B, v* J
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 ~7 i) I* L+ P! U* j
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 W  {- Z+ \6 c; D( o# g: ]
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( g4 P( m& z' |( m" N5 \/ [2 w( zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 N+ n6 J  G# i. N8 l6 K
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% X& O+ ]& d$ A8 _/ z! x
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, c+ E/ S- N& @% l5 R+ N% c$ bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; p- v$ ^6 ~8 C# H# f3 Z/ i+ q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 O4 ~; F/ a1 U0 Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 P6 t% v! A9 N- Q% Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* \3 a5 A/ y: s# p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# k$ \/ t- e0 t' P; ^7 V2 m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ X$ s9 Q5 d7 ]$ ?" l( }/ C
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! f7 f0 ^$ h5 G+ w) v! Y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( Y7 t/ t' x$ w7 r3 ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* W4 Y9 I. a: y, F1 h. X- R2 M
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 {/ h9 ~% [! m, P! [4 b
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ g, x  x" B; y2 {# p  Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. ~  \, t) \8 l* ~4 v$ y4 ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 \3 F6 G4 K; q1 g% p7 k" V  c4 w
leg down over 2009.: j* U/ C3 F. y2 P& F
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 K, b4 }2 [. q) j1 @- M' v2 W1 s, |0 g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. - e& F2 w: h: t) F9 _$ b7 I
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" ]6 N7 l& k$ W- p. [) x3 r
6 _# {" K! A. F4 `7 c8 j
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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