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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
: B3 {5 m3 S& [: X$ gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. |0 U p' v) C6 k+ _boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 Z' k4 |9 c* P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 n# P4 s% I' H H. p/ ~9 W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 ^! R" k0 J' D& g; m% W! T) e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# E5 X/ A& j+ t4 q8 Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ M" X( E" i7 I$ b& _0 gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" \. \2 d) V9 N. r# i, j g: k* @may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( s; \9 O/ }( ?
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% _/ g$ T D! a$ ~2 o6 V' N' i8 mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! o+ ^. Y" G$ m" X4 J% B( E! B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ e7 L5 U% ^: T* u, H% u
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) a& ?$ T( z p6 @# S9 Y2 Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 x& f% y! F7 @* j: f$ Y9 Y6 C7 W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( d$ R R& m, I; @- S30,000 new households will form in the province during
. N/ a% E2 K' H W! W# u- \2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 ~% [' m# w# J& [' ?
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 K8 M e6 \6 L+ @homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ W: X0 y6 o' n6 Tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# ?9 u; x; d! g, s8 d( i2 r T
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# z! B- B8 y: T, E
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. C$ Z; d$ R0 C. Q; }
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, Q! q* q, n6 q2 ~5 l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 y/ Y$ f* h- l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 O' y* a I4 A! A8 r
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* |3 e5 |5 y b( G+ e: b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: A1 K9 t: {5 H7 bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: {( L' K* M2 D$ f) lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 o, \2 [6 _* g% S' l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 P7 |1 v: l$ |4 ~) _
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 L# t3 C2 r- H5 P) Z0 g: w( Vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 c! F" A, P) J! B6 C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- A p0 j7 V7 Y) k1 \$ B" sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& v, B- c1 N7 l' s+ E( Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, k& `- P7 x. N( y+ Iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. I/ k3 m( s' Z: T' @rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 a: I+ a" `. j/ g: b( u5 \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& X" h3 G( S7 m) F! {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ T1 L3 _3 x+ I+ q" H2 [Although income growth was very strong, Albertan" {& I$ ]- s1 ]+ T6 X; `! y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- X! w7 [- Q4 p" ?
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 m Z6 }$ B: r" @3 F! `* dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; Y, i" q, U6 S& y3 _3 X& wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 l5 {* `0 |8 i, h- I4 _" g( Q) Pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& f; n' J# T, t- M: V9 n0 g+ B6 SThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: }! V, g+ B) G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 _- z T& e# B3 U! Y% U, J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# V% m) D: y* i6 U1 q$ X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 \: ?8 j6 g" ]/ xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% s7 b0 x5 G+ L( W/ QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 S; ^/ }5 J/ j: \) R E6 r1 n# q' ~
leg down over 2009.
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) Q0 s$ Y' _5 C9 G6 d+ v- S2 Y& v6 R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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