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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
0 H6 _  m; z5 K
/ m/ x' k! N+ S1 \; g. NTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : C0 T) w; h% d2 ~' @
1 {: r" w6 i: }; E# Y8 v3 b; b$ W
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 5 V  P4 }9 }3 K0 \2 c, W

& q/ _7 @, u4 A9 n  Y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
. C' C( X- h; @6 S! q6 Z* d% j" t( b9 {  e7 c
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- e/ P0 ^4 Z& y! ^

% W+ h: `1 K4 e! Z! B2 J) h& b+ _3 UTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
0 T% M- R, I: Z2 c- Z* ~- G, d* P
# q$ m. E3 U$ K6 K) X9 i. l"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. / V4 n3 T1 @; W9 P
$ l; c, S" x' w/ o& }# u
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) f& p# e8 K9 S% v- x+ e9 ?; _

5 t  K* M$ K. A: H! JMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 4 I; i  K5 D1 a/ S/ W0 K& t. h

( K1 P' R0 w" G9 T0 lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

9 {, T  S6 J' @7 K' r! \8 C% V% Z9 m: E. I0 `
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. v7 l8 O  g, z- T+ q* Y& \

' Q9 v3 u, b  f, \% ?[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, s: f/ X3 R0 y% f2 m 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 M5 Y( G' ^$ D+ J8 T5 ]1 T

$ T& ^7 P( ~6 m- Y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % }% T1 v. L) O( l$ A- w( r) I) i
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: _6 ?* Y! n% t, P# ~3 B5 h% ?$ f很多人都回学校深造去了
6 |* x  J# G7 ]: `6 W嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta  N. g$ E0 m3 ~0 x5 k+ _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. ]! P! k% y. V3 Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: P! D5 l: Y! l( ^' D
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 S! U: y) k# b7 c! \% L- R) z% f9 r- N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 L0 i7 q% S$ i( N- l4 M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided% i6 C! ^& f6 u3 ?* P" `) |
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," I3 W4 i6 Q- A0 K
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 D7 m7 v. d. z' u) ^- bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 \  B6 v# t- o* M7 g* g
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; L- }& t+ l# C7 B0 R
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% e1 `& b, i$ I6 \# Gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& o; r  i' w8 x. J' h& ?# a7 w! Gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: H$ a; y/ H5 qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& {* g' v& T: T2 P  B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
" _, }. J! {$ S& T; A30,000 new households will form in the province during" k$ g# i5 B4 i5 ~+ w" s1 S
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  w7 s$ M' B1 F( ^/ j( qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 U& r* M" d! H. G. Jhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 l8 u/ F2 L# _  `9 A0 h
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  j: U& x( q- J
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 H, c5 Z% c' z( g9 z  p8 f) [
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 E- C$ G: o/ Z4 p) ]+ Hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) \, W- `' ?3 c5 n; msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
+ E$ c, D# Q; f8 N3 e4 c3 ~clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' a, R! G! G+ P$ Lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! c# G# [+ ?. e9 h1 @) O1 Y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; x  c/ e3 s' y  X5 l  R* msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' ^) \1 D+ A  j# l2 F
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; r- A9 I* Z" h5 p! U6 w6 L3 g  x$ Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. i" @% s' G1 b( \+ \& Gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% s; `8 }( f7 e2 Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ ~- Y7 t4 V; v/ m2 i  m  Frecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ ?4 j8 I* E% @. ]1 mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( K# r& m& w" I& ?( I4 o3 m8 k) @; e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 O8 F. F. `3 w7 m  B- kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 h$ k. S3 {1 f4 F
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% v$ R, F; c# d. I1 T% W, S% T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& Q, `! K  L$ @8 `- j8 W' K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 r9 B" z- S  e/ V7 L5 G- ^
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& I$ m* C4 |4 f# \' m) Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ P" Z, `% {* r' e+ k3 frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 l, A! Y% N3 r9 Q% g
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 z- e! k) x$ M/ i! v. k0 i
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
" y/ q9 z% Y2 K6 J4 x/ D# g* ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 m, q' I1 L5 f- A  J) s
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: ]# Q( X# ^, b! \1 u; F7 ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices) C( k/ T4 b0 ~. n5 t% B& z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' f. `! [" `+ S; c; y* f' y- A+ K
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" |. J3 K8 ~4 z+ ]deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ N; |, z8 d4 h' X5 c/ w; ?* qAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) O$ W+ Z% \4 Z* j3 V) p$ {leg down over 2009.' }0 J! X1 g% `1 d# b: }

* g0 ]5 F! P! r$ b+ s. B[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 z, k! k! o3 l5 J: ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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2 w: q, {, u% A5 z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 8 y7 r2 }/ k- N
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子  s8 k9 F6 q9 k0 K

! E# _% o6 M) c& E  X* ^http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. z, N" Q* D  j* w; q& r" l' {
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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