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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 U+ a- e3 C. C! A' F4 T. F) e- C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) m0 y ?* v: H4 p3 Dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 ]4 J* M7 W5 Q# M9 P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: A& p7 q3 Y3 U7 D# Z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: j% y" h. \* y. Z# E0 }5 j. Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 p" [: |) c2 D1 s1 @. W$ Y2 L; nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% h$ o' p+ ?2 _/ m, T& Y
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- {" P( s: E0 w: g8 ]9 ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 L( n8 r w2 f F, f& r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed ^# `* `! q" d
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( A9 m, m0 Z. k* |# X& X$ `: r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; n9 G+ D0 w6 q2 Hprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 V. S- O y9 h$ K! W! T- Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ X ^- t C1 }! [+ Z' ^# ?
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 ]4 E% V# t: r0 j
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 T# Z1 G5 \$ T. Q0 h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year. T2 b) j% W- r a& `8 N* y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 ]$ ^$ |( i7 q J8 x6 @homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ h4 J( Y% e' ?, j, s* h8 w
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 j8 g" [1 [) yhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 u( q8 f+ l" C( n! g+ U" E9 Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ o k( b( T! J) z) K
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* E$ p4 i6 J/ b- C7 @3 }! h& dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ n$ w8 J5 n3 y* o1 `3 u5 A
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) u* l! Z$ N% z1 y% d% y+ O' {+ Mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 u$ }& {5 {" r" U1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) A( L2 l2 ?. `
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 Y9 A8 a% z$ E% x: Ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# y0 g6 D' o; ?1 Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 W! I$ E3 c: `% _0 K3 p1 D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 B2 R2 N: @4 k: |4 N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; q8 x$ d3 F! G
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- o, `1 ~9 r( u" B! P' s' K$ N, v
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 B+ r1 b: C' H& r. r
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 s$ J' Z8 L" ?! wof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' i; W% n1 g3 q7 T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& {' `& e4 m- a3 C: [$ G* `7 Q7 NThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 B0 `( G: w+ r0 ]boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% [9 X/ h, @% ^4 }1 W) P
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 Q/ ^+ m5 P! Q( ?5 b7 \housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; F5 r# I" |; `% J" `/ N& F$ e
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 D) v5 @& l# M! y: x0 G$ Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 B% z+ h0 i6 T Qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& A6 t" B8 F4 T( G9 _# `1 [4 W# @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! X: M& Y0 Q1 ~6 R9 e5 lThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 p* V5 @) i8 L7 x( c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 X& ~9 l: j( t9 f/ a& ?) jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ S ^& q" ~1 P! u/ J7 w6 k. Mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
8 M& W5 P! [# Q9 Ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 K4 _* d2 C# V$ ] m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ C! n7 l( D p
leg down over 2009.
% n2 M: x2 Z8 e2 F8 h& q% Z% A& {' {( e; a$ ^- P
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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