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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.+ j1 Z4 O- G1 \( h; z

$ C( A4 l0 S; l' i* I8 ~TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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( E5 h  r3 F; g) d! |The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / H! p" M( c9 T3 Q
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : k0 _6 C& N( h+ |7 [( g

+ Z$ e) Y9 o0 P* w# u7 N+ r0 iNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. r' c4 \/ ?9 _" Z4 I* D; `; V

! b' ^  N. ^' K- t7 ^TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 Y. m1 Z1 B8 ]' M+ D* H1 s) v9 D

2 E: ^1 ^7 |% \- g8 @4 n8 {  l"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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6 r  z0 [) Y0 CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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2 `$ L7 U; s- k1 ]# W  eMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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( ]* u3 P9 H" j3 lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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$ d1 u; }5 x+ ?( V  j[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; x9 \9 G4 V+ {8 g' f
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。- v# N6 O( N$ R! [' \

4 i9 \8 F# d  K8 @" D[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ! U( q& `% R0 a+ P* S) i6 o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

# c9 w( ?5 l! }  F& G5 u很多人都回学校深造去了! `, q" H( |2 D4 p7 w0 K$ c3 c
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ y  f1 V. P$ I% S& s8 I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 C! R' i9 d4 b9 s5 F; F* \
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. E0 p0 z* O1 H. {" t& ]; x
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 J9 q0 l1 k0 R6 M8 F$ j
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! _$ h; {; X; }* U6 T, W7 H$ lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' w$ [9 z; D" z, z$ q8 E
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 C5 \3 ^- X" H+ U, Y7 r) I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 @4 e& `, I/ pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 r9 m& b5 M9 ]2 j# T% jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 c/ q+ \7 u, N# t: B" |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 I/ k1 e  z. Y; wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ ?# ~, b  B: W) y& m) B+ w* ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; T  r6 n* x; |* f3 _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* ?) s: ]* i! \& `; l  G/ b/ w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 Z: c6 l, r$ e/ d9 M4 ^0 @30,000 new households will form in the province during9 j7 N( O) \8 U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., B3 r- r9 }; H, N  p% r/ o" d
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
& N2 D, w* ]  N* w+ V* K& n; C7 ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, D$ w% n& L& f, E/ b6 p4 v8 oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% n- @7 V- a. K4 e8 q1 B) G  }1 l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! ]+ j' J) l" T0 m$ T  a9 T" {households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 V* D  X9 H; B1 L# |/ V# zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) _6 P1 n; J8 q$ q+ u+ ^( l2 X- Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ m( r( t. N+ x5 r# [/ l8 e
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; K5 F) H& U1 j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 X1 Y; e' }" ?1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: q0 X7 E# f9 T  v/ A2 o7 I: J
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 ?7 O( F0 O  e1 x! k! G% P+ H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' m* r' v. u7 K; T5 F+ \
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 j) h+ o: \2 C  d7 o3 d9 W) B7 Y
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 E$ a, y% y% L. O  l7 f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ ]8 ?" S( _6 h( l
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 a. P0 M# L1 V7 f; V* M) ?resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 i, b9 H# T& U7 `7 k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- p/ A6 T( b4 M0 {4 W9 J) o6 P$ @
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 u2 T8 _" ^6 n, {( A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." m6 W% ^0 b/ i6 s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( \& v, y: D4 dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 `( a' i% X4 k3 U9 Y  O
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 E! o; j% L+ }& p; chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ u0 [9 |$ A- n8 x! j0 s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& i& l8 c  A! `2 E! E4 yprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' n4 c* ^# o( M2 ?though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& K9 o& Q$ J9 j- g$ a' p: non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. A/ ?* n. p3 @) ?0 z) ?2 SThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* b6 `* S, d/ f1 P" a3 R& ^! o7 |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 ?9 b- M4 c! V0 S, V1 [" v
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% [0 C* q5 M- i9 P6 [/ {4 q. u6 ^
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% m, I- w" o3 q* a+ |4 `% W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  b9 T* u& Z/ p  wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 `, `8 Z# }4 s' O
leg down over 2009.* f, [% v9 d$ Q. h
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 \( r6 e6 S% w  AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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0 ], T4 a4 Q  j# [  {8 G/ \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 3 p0 o) x3 [: I# S3 d
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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. i/ G! K9 c# @% ohttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& }& S3 d& G3 K7 B5 U% V3 y. Q0 z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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