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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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3 ~. f5 j, N+ |( k+ p3 D8 }! I5 ATD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 o# I0 s3 O/ e5 k) J6 B6 F
+ S% k) S5 F2 @! X& Z
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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2 Q! k/ A4 p0 [+ [3 w# T2 X"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
& ]* u: [9 |" T8 G7 k2 U' T$ J* l5 n' i* K4 I
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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' ~6 Z5 L6 z0 f4 r/ s# l% lTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* x4 w% [5 a6 l+ j& _1 E
0 I6 u6 |$ q6 ^: W- c; n
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ a* U/ l; w  C% ?

0 \$ b# b5 e' D# J2 I7 nMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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2 C3 b2 d( L; X$ _4 k$ b7 w! JTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes," [0 a" B2 X& p8 ?% c
" D/ ?3 o) C3 J" B1 B  W) {6 A
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 @0 W$ Q/ m$ S  l5 \- v( v0 b 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, q4 ^+ X+ t0 `

6 Q+ L" [  K: h/ d[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + K, `/ ^  [" l, q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

1 U0 H( i6 S2 f很多人都回学校深造去了. E( q, H" p9 R! P" a
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
$ a: t* s" N: k$ y! T& ^- UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 r8 ^' `) L1 G0 L, T1 D+ g
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
* ~& Q" e! i9 [" ]are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, t9 ^2 G3 y. F
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( G! Z" F+ t* j& R. t5 zformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; Z' r+ {7 d' q" h4 I
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 K5 l: U& o( {
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 S; C, y) U. I* K8 i0 _
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 z% ]( v8 P6 y; a+ R- n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed$ w% m4 [( u0 p" ~  J% O5 x
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' g8 @3 Z& T4 hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- h; U) c. R9 p; L; r  f* Pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& @3 ?2 J1 E: g  yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 l0 g% [- _$ m  T  B9 ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& j6 c( u" q% |, K* p+ m* Q5 f7 p: O
30,000 new households will form in the province during' o% a6 o/ c  Q- {
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% Q8 ]( j" n) N0 n7 d2 M0 KEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 @" O1 z+ i* T0 |# qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& P; ~/ p* H" g% o
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, O$ l6 g. [0 _1 @* t1 h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 m# k' G, z4 f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. I, h/ E! [  S7 j5 M" n! P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% E, r5 ^: G$ V9 ~' n  B
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& C; _4 T  M5 e0 R8 T; h
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: x+ K, k- y; L# ^" Z  l+ M) V1 rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  s) U3 b4 Y! U7 I1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 h+ m  i) U/ z; L% T9 Q8 ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 \" H- {- ?8 @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 _3 O9 S% k" ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* F  [9 T6 `) F, E9 |( D9 x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. d  e9 A  ~6 s) j. vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) E6 l$ ~8 |4 A* c4 U  krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
3 `# O: H) H- x" R( X3 dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" s  N7 e5 ]4 ?0 u/ l+ C5 K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% B3 U; W# r! x
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& p6 P4 j& Y# L( |rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
  C( N% G5 p9 r, ^% AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. T) R/ g  ?, U$ j% q. kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 z' \$ f3 O: m# y, c+ L9 gAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
" K4 C: K7 S/ ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& @9 B- t! H' K8 J8 K9 p1 Yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( T2 u) z% s8 c8 i; Z: Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 W* {  A  w: J. z+ e3 Gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, Y" }4 W- h0 Q- }
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 h. |& j. s% l1 a5 B# OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 y+ s4 W2 L+ E- a% z$ p: x2 u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; g2 d2 z# e/ j( j6 f2 \/ B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
4 |0 G2 p8 q& Z# R4 Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! A8 o( w# p. p  L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! V5 Y, I! Q$ G4 u/ L8 Y' F
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 D9 [! n( U4 s
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- h  ~( M' g3 N3 J- QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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* z) W+ S: y2 ?. o& E* m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 0 i8 R4 z3 R8 T, a, R2 N
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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& O+ t1 U" C6 Y9 yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& Q: c" i- o! [  ^4 C
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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