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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.! V% y" N+ J* ?) o2 g! A

6 \$ e: {0 o% _2 z4 P( XTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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% P2 L; I  }% R1 q! ~) }& zThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 7 c; w- l) s! B
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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0 p. G; _7 p9 C' l, F( |3 L"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 6 Y  B# G; P* ?

# \. f) h& P* P- j$ j0 ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& X! M4 |& A1 `

0 U* b# _: F  }: F0 EMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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+ G! T& M0 U. W3 zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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. Y( \6 c4 U% S( m# ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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# O( r0 _2 r" J- ?  q6 F[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" ?' F7 E9 L+ }; @  M- R 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- f) n+ n. M, z/ O' }2 T跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 p2 @& e$ S/ B/ P很多人都回学校深造去了0 A: p$ h0 {3 k( J, N4 M+ r5 O* j
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta8 K) ?2 D! z, L
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: l; J0 w4 i; T7 A% I
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 E) A" B/ S4 I) o& k9 v( \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' l1 E9 T/ P8 o8 L9 k9 Z4 ?, T# c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ W# n* m5 z0 I; T6 ]" |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 b) W- T% L7 ~2 \% S2 O+ n2 ?( \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ `8 ?! D7 W+ g/ W
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ k+ t6 ?* v. W! }4 G
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, g: m) v- K# @9 W4 [pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" o* a  d. A* `* [" h
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# ~' o% R, g, r: ?4 o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 l8 {5 W' u+ K8 }& R/ r4 I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) y+ W7 U/ t' n+ Zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; C7 T' q/ f' ^$ m" @# @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' |" J& N" x" A: b6 j30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ R4 ~- y- P' N3 e$ x5 p+ c) s2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- d. [' O% c7 rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) `: G2 x: p/ n6 L4 p% T
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ d& v3 W+ e6 Z2 o/ {6 F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# r! r, d  ?: t
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 _1 @2 E8 s3 ^8 _5 }" z( S/ phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
# x! d9 G0 h) Lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 n- o4 i3 P2 M' ~$ Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( f2 B: F2 _+ ^clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& A- z' y/ V- |6 Z# oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" G5 Y6 T, Z( }( w7 n. ^4 p1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" T9 P1 E0 d. V$ ~sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; ]3 A' y8 T" W7 f  d
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: |* E8 y/ a8 ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ X+ V" k0 `  B. Y  w" t2 Ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 h) p0 S  ~+ h6 Q3 E# kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ O4 K6 |& m6 ^8 S" e: O8 I: {' |
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ a7 H% ~' m  a$ d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 q9 Z' q& Y! P8 n) p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 r8 I+ b9 ^9 P+ N- pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
+ }( Q" _9 u. v6 arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ N; a8 V& m) j: g& s& t* t
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, w& h7 z. e/ m. [0 c. K) X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 z+ `8 [/ y, A. D" B& YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. J! ?2 I5 p6 ^; l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 e3 `  C( N4 Y# {/ U* crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ o. @7 p; d2 z" ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 [" F5 X7 |0 Y) W8 U8 V
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 i" Q. N- T1 d! g! l2 o" X8 \
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: H1 O; S1 ?& \$ _7 ZThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 ]9 v# ~9 z$ ]7 }6 @9 i+ [resale price in February is evidence that past prices$ I! u. R) L1 _6 C
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 ~+ Q1 B8 x6 y7 F# C
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# T$ l) l9 j7 k, K0 p/ ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 p+ ]- u6 `0 kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. n& ~3 g  e8 A+ q
leg down over 2009.* x' v3 `& Y8 k/ A6 n9 G1 ^  z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, W/ y7 o% ^# _- Q3 ^
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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0 A( E. c5 f) g& S+ ]6 c( T[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. & ~6 I; d# W, z5 U' Q
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! N3 L* J. _9 w8 D

7 L* B2 [1 R& m$ d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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