埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2463|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.; g  |: p/ K  p" n& E' h

# F2 b; m7 @* J. v& M7 QTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : U% j5 ?( d! U

2 F# X. P. z7 a( G5 J9 ?. sThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / O: m) l0 v9 u( V9 D$ s7 X% I

) r" _- H0 c. S, A"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
, b) b$ }9 c/ J# g! V: @# l/ H" M' ?1 _* G+ y' N3 R7 b
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) x) Q$ b5 \# s$ _
. J' W8 [0 e: E0 l- w/ b1 v5 b6 K
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
4 f- @; G- f$ N) O) n4 W$ v' Q7 c3 a2 A0 x1 K1 G' E1 H! w5 [( N
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. & j- l5 R5 z) o% V

6 V+ O$ s1 g  y* STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
" d- F6 k- b# Y- x) x: L$ x6 b; J7 [1 J  _3 S
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
, g8 g7 a0 O1 H, W( M
, N2 H0 Z, a+ y/ f' \) p1 |0 mhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

" P% F' T4 t3 L+ v) N4 |' X2 b
# J8 B4 K9 I; p; c) |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% H5 Y9 V& V* M" J
  F8 W/ {3 I5 z, s
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 L! _; L% `2 R' r  h" c 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
- g) J# D6 S' y- M2 o
. q. }  J3 U. ~6 h[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
6 L7 d" ^& w/ \% ^; {. d) J( m跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
0 R$ N0 D/ n  U- ^" n: q
很多人都回学校深造去了
: n8 {: o; Q4 T$ e嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; Q' w4 T! B, e
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 T, l, W7 e; b$ m$ c" s: ^: p/ m$ A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ R- v) b( A) d5 {
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, N4 I9 g: C* p; d! L
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' a8 E% L/ ~( j2 C3 Hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ f8 {8 E6 i& ?from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,  u# |1 q, ]6 g7 D+ ^: J! [' Z! W
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% N8 g, F* J8 \5 J. j+ v0 i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ ^+ n- Y3 B; l) p' lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; V* [6 Z- w: ~+ a  n( H
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ d( O3 d6 G$ f
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
' S7 o3 d+ R# ~- P; O7 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' x6 z2 n& R" d* F3 g* F5 a% zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# k$ c: Z/ ~+ D% ~+ p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: F! M: c6 }! M
30,000 new households will form in the province during  z! F9 x% w0 b; g, \) |# |9 l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ C6 J$ \/ p/ Z0 }* @4 s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) H! N& Q% F* _) U2 I" r; b9 ~% _homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! v& P- F) r$ r2 E+ ]6 _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; Y" M0 j+ T: F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 P' W2 M1 c$ D; x8 T/ {' n
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 p- i4 H" t' y, R, D2 J; p1 M$ \
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# q) D# b* `, e: N7 h
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# Y  B4 K9 S0 X3 v: W3 J' {) Y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ |, Z2 S% |  `& g! _/ _- [# y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ s( Y! r) K2 `. J- ~
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; c7 J! W3 j3 d4 F% o  Bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 f9 r& }/ P6 V9 J5 _buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& @% U( ?' P; Q2 k) G5 H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 F: n: p5 O4 Q$ A  j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ l8 Z' U- x' G% a0 d& G/ r9 ounsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! q6 l- t; j( x% m) L1 q, @
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 w" f  y+ E2 gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ G( B/ M6 j( _/ W+ `3 \* gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 U( b6 j5 Z9 G) C* o: a8 D
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
" w- H' c: Y3 H" Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 l: E4 p- [% F+ f& t1 d% y7 a  o
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ Z( h$ C, w2 T6 x7 G7 p% W  ^2 hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) `' ?! I  w- Z4 p, rAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
* T9 C9 [. u7 V5 uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 z6 P  ^( w# F& h5 [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 b& W8 g. ?# I! I  t2 [7 ]; L8 t4 ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" l* r: X+ d% e6 x( Zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 Z" v' S( F4 o" Xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 q; g2 |- B: Z* A" O; r1 j- X: T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' j: b# m$ k. y5 X
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ M3 f2 X" h3 x  Rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 w( a" n- q# |' ^7 ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 ?4 p8 r' c7 ~: d3 Jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 e: D0 N) i" W3 YAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 d: A. E& `6 [; m/ ~5 G9 q! k. g
leg down over 2009.1 F9 j/ d7 o2 z( @: W, M0 V: N
& G, }4 q8 k& r! {  K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' _* e7 q2 q: d6 |  hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

, y% j$ g5 ?9 S) E/ j" ]& q% S, M8 ~2 {+ x
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" ?; d9 W- i: K) ]/ g* z, s( j) ~# K翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 _6 `, X4 n4 F2 P

! D4 ?- [, Q; R, q# rhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
+ {% F1 t9 N  k! g+ e8 W
; o0 }* c  v& n1 E9 r, t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-19 02:22 , Processed in 0.162915 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表