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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 G' I# r- [& G! k3 ~' V" N9 s3 v, R0 a
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ( [& i! W9 i6 \" U: k7 v: Q
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) A, \* p# `8 y* `; Y1 H- @
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; ?  J: ]8 b9 _, C

3 T1 j; w1 t" |+ W, M0 b# nTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.& N! {- ]: K3 T& ^0 J  l

3 K% h8 r4 j2 l& B"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 E/ {3 K3 T: b) w7 `# u* p' Y
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 2 u" C; `. b+ v) z- G8 F

$ J2 n3 C4 \5 c5 f& y4 N; g1 Y+ Rhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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& j! R7 J7 w; j+ {( n# oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,5 t- u+ @9 y/ |1 z' U: `

5 `/ t- }& R& i; H1 A[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。& g- ?3 l' i( {1 O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; V( n3 V+ m5 i' }8 O

5 t8 b% O4 a* p[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
0 g9 F3 m: e# n+ @跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

% ?* ~# q  l+ C, [  V很多人都回学校深造去了
( `" A0 @2 w# r" p6 y/ O/ d7 @/ E3 Q; t嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 h  g7 J( e" E! L& j6 I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 ]: p* o* s7 L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# T- u* e0 z8 u1 \$ X& j# a
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# g) y% ~; A0 T! \6 [' T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 i# `2 l8 M" ~( @0 z- e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 h( Y* X; b3 t: t
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; a( V: d2 y1 Z) ~3 B5 K6 Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- ^6 l3 w6 B8 |4 U/ L; |/ y' S& N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" d$ p$ p3 r, z: D( X$ Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 r* h/ T$ U( [7 _
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; M8 A% R0 V, f% v% @' Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' t7 X0 ?# S9 H1 Q* E4 a. W* J6 D
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ v- t; q9 H" d4 C$ myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( U9 G$ h4 W" [7 b1 a; x
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 g" L0 s$ M# g) H( u1 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( a; @' N) V7 X  k2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 h2 P: {# C, H: k$ |* `/ qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 l2 U) R: _" dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 g+ j5 |- t: u) F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% F7 h+ d5 C7 t2 a  p: Q7 Z% o( Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 x% s' N7 Z# U4 Q: X& ^' Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 U( H: {7 f$ Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  `+ l+ e2 [( j' Z6 A1 Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; {+ _0 H9 }+ ]1 f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ f5 k3 _1 p( n1 m9 m. uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& b8 x( s6 Q, Q) w8 {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 k$ N6 g$ k3 {$ C4 k( s' G& T6 {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- i% Q# g( v, j1 z" F$ b: ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: {: s  x5 c1 R! P) z/ U, ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* S6 c4 l, p4 g% e$ J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# W& T2 j  \7 u3 c6 K( cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 y* b' |% U  \6 t; d
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 ^2 T' A1 D2 s1 {% `' j1 Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 ?. D9 C) w0 ]8 t& [+ {" k3 Z& o8 bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 c9 g$ [; _0 ]; Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! k9 `! ~* k* J8 M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 ~8 H% l- n1 C
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& Y1 |' h5 y2 A* {# B0 ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: s- T' G$ ^7 {7 LAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 I0 |! l1 w; |- ?! c! P) d& S6 S
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& T: M+ V6 c: @" ^- |7 _
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( m5 R  t7 m7 h& I4 n" y# c
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even, e% e; e( s( Q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 |: u' c% t0 ]8 }) w# _" r9 a! jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 n2 @! q- Z# w' v: i; hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 X! Y0 w4 _: M( t; z( ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices5 x& O# m; k) R. B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' R; e. B/ e0 r; R7 }homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* {1 t: i& ^, s/ L0 }1 L6 {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 }' A9 i. s8 b, y, E. Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, M% ^& r" B# ^) a0 \leg down over 2009.# }1 p! \9 p5 A8 V7 X% P
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" s% G+ |6 [  Q, fAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. / [7 ~1 |6 X( l- U4 U7 e
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子$ g8 D/ G8 V  R0 v, y  g
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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% [. q' t; v4 M) r: h# ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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