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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
# U" D8 x5 R9 D! EWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, L+ i7 ^: @' e1 S
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& S5 o4 k' w% c0 O: U8 B" _0 j; q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' j- t& e; u: k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ A6 F4 q- s: c" h. }, p( Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& y0 a" G% v& D) {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 G% Z0 r7 J. m8 _7 E! r' O
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) N7 ^& |5 E+ {/ V9 a. l+ `( mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous" F. M; Z' X4 E8 W0 ^/ V
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; u* \! U( [, Q, O& R% r- {precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' j; Y3 m! Y8 M3 ^' V) }5 Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& G* A9 E7 v4 E& Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! f' S+ ?8 P/ a9 Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ M$ I9 Q0 T4 F- w7 Z! @# X- d- S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ v% i* T' ^7 J7 }30,000 new households will form in the province during& ~8 @* s. A+ `6 m4 o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ X: Z* {. p8 \1 J9 X) FEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- G1 P! s5 D3 `% W6 ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, \ Q$ ~8 Q) A! S* |" bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" r7 A. L0 w9 F; _4 |# L% b: G, Ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) A/ j9 U& A9 |1 Xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 J% I5 j) u: {1 }% H9 a6 {) Q$ U
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 S/ Q# g2 m% y, D8 @- A
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- Z4 v$ `& g H: L" q. O; @" Oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is \8 c9 V5 r' x6 p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 k q* I; |; H( c( R1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% T; b+ Z1 S2 W* A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* m9 Q9 c, G+ Q- g5 abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 H/ H1 [5 T- `two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" l$ Z3 \# j: _) E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 x9 y# u, p2 G+ _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 d/ X; @3 j# G+ grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 s- F, D' n, B/ O5 d9 v
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! T, `) b) ~4 h9 N3 Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- p# c- a# v6 N* h/ e8 F
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 g2 j6 }) m$ o2 U$ H" T7 Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" i/ `0 i! U2 Q- RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ v6 t% F8 R0 S/ r: O+ Wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% b8 k" ~ m0 ~6 L& h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan6 D& i3 m0 y* M$ y d
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 w& j, Y6 y Y9 d% j. u3 ]
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- N. ]9 X' X+ Y& ? ^9 c& n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
M( s: Y4 }( W$ }# M' V; O' v* {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( D- q2 g7 ^. A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 i6 O9 ? ?# @3 c, u2 Z5 A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# c! e: x& H% Q) u* ?
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; e+ e, b2 Z" P# L8 e) a# L1 B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" D" B4 W0 h2 O2 z+ q3 L! E) Ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 d/ p' ^4 U# B, z$ p2 c8 Ndeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( H) v" ~& a$ Q6 P) k: tAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 |& x0 _/ Q/ @; ^+ d/ K0 oleg down over 2009.1 G4 |( \1 g# n" B
, w: x- m" S) ^+ Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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