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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ p; |5 D; u" F2 ?, _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) _' f+ j' d/ ]; @; s1 b; tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 U- A0 h! R' Q+ c7 {; i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- R" z4 M7 w' [' [$ a2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, _7 h! j2 K& s8 U1 F2 R* p) f3 Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 M8 C* e7 S8 a( Z5 D. n9 \# wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 r- P0 t' L; G7 h6 Uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# e$ q. D" H$ omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( l7 I9 q; B: ^8 hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% o ^, p# h' z) E! F& t6 m
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 A- w% `) a, G! L2 s9 bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 _7 K; J. T0 V3 k% G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) y3 G6 G) F0 M0 ^! K1 C2 r: v& Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 t3 K' C. {8 q. }6 b! g( P# R
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ H; t; l- R Z! U5 |30,000 new households will form in the province during9 J: W: c! l2 C5 t! U+ Z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 Q9 D5 w; q5 R. `. ?2 [, J( PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 `: g% Y; z, ^/ V4 uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' {! v R& q' P" f: B; I# v. i; q6 xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% H8 U4 F6 c [3 I1 ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ g3 X3 y% l$ f8 a( i6 d1 T
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) Y' P9 T/ T+ W& o
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 d6 w5 A7 u: i% f) g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, j4 H4 W( a* {/ d/ _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# m) V& P$ _2 T
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' E) M! s0 N) t1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% l v4 D3 q- N+ c3 A+ @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 D: @5 d; G' F# fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; r5 z( U& B8 A# i4 P! g2 ~* v
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" F8 o6 y$ i! }: J9 Q' D% C; ?unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( z" _3 Y- L6 M7 funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 Y% N. C! J/ V) _0 Z; G/ h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: Y# ]% W2 q0 W! \, Oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) j X6 l0 Y; X7 h8 n4 ` _$ P+ ?8 h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# ]6 q) Z" d0 V( h% @$ J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 }8 V: {: L8 ~) f6 x& F" a2 Srapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& C% w) e5 ~4 f# A: {4 BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, u" ^+ I8 y+ r# a. w
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; H% L# U- |5 @% T9 RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
" g0 i1 O5 L7 _1 `7 Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ x- H V M# R1 Q# o9 Irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( W. O5 z. E, q" k* L: Cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, Y* [/ g+ l2 n& H0 }5 @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 |$ Q; v( ?; n0 t% q9 \
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& K# `, y( U9 qThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 @# p! d! ^& j s1 J: W7 R% `
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; m, U6 P) o, s" ?9 Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* O( g: A7 K/ p# d/ G! l3 ?
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 A) h- C% P" F2 A* @2 zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 h% T w. ~" X! k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% e0 B7 M# N/ dleg down over 2009.; m6 v8 K* [: [8 S J
7 ?+ O1 B& ?2 M! _) k5 z7 \) {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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