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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
5 A* ]0 R7 u) h. z) _1 [8 LWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- v: Z( F$ t% A# k+ x3 J2 y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& I8 @5 R) h. G; Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; Q( L3 T" r* l- M; y1 `, o, w2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% ~, C* K1 ^0 A# M |' k; b$ D
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' }. L# n$ k8 _
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 z- P* n! E2 Y& B0 pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! S, U5 P5 F/ N' h/ _; X
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 c/ F) Z `7 J1 @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! P" |/ e+ m/ H( w( O A2 [0 Hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
: a( o: C% j& @9 F, w5 b$ @3 Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: J2 v. q. I G, C0 t1 Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ l! @( ]3 h: ^* S1 b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 X* p" V" ?1 M4 b- b
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 F% c. d6 }) t s2 {5 E
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 ~, u' G. W( I
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 ~* K& O1 F9 f) ]( E
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) }2 ]* I" S& q' J0 X8 Y* Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
P& k: A# E7 ]5 D( C5 x4 Q2 i2 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 c9 _# n+ g9 V4 R& s
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, i- }* K* C* chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! G+ M P: [3 V! g. \/ _" c Z3 O
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 {/ Z6 ]- ]$ N. X. U2 K" E3 f) l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) d9 a$ L ~) |0 yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 z- h! ~( |2 [- n" p9 [2 J7 c8 A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 H, o1 j& ~% g4 x* q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# v' Z7 E6 i: b4 `; b- P9 f
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) m& P L) Z% b" [buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 _4 u: q* F6 E% H n; X: J
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in/ w$ x9 _2 t' D1 w/ O( G9 e
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. a8 c$ m) k7 c z& W8 g l1 W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- x6 F/ L) J) q- y4 x6 P/ o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 ~; T& n0 L% w, A/ }
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* T- x" {/ f) E1 R/ g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 D! L; W/ n1 J% _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& R) N1 `1 U c- ?7 }( Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' J4 [' Z. K$ CThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" e3 }7 e% T+ Q( A& u- f0 eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
J# n0 E6 J0 v) WAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 N+ l: \& \, P4 \4 L, Y: T- `4 B0 Mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ @0 {. c) @/ X, s& M4 C1 Lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; X- j. |) [2 c$ _. n" e; }9 p# M( }prices substantially eroded affordability and, even/ n1 K E+ _! w ~- C p5 h0 }
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 W. K# x/ i. o% M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( i5 s' `- w1 V$ t" k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" n0 |/ l |9 R9 Q) h: ^
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
X9 ^1 S% A1 w" P* Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 R: z5 z' U- u* ^; }% V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; t% t& B' ?0 h. ~6 t+ |9 X. e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: F, c! ]6 O; |' x$ |
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 w. R( V! w8 y+ a9 jleg down over 2009.
4 K; r# l& o" {" F/ u! W3 ]' L1 }) R7 X; L3 j, ~2 [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* s" T: v8 m, Z; i
