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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta' K2 a) h# P9 x$ {# V
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its% C( y& i. o$ n. b, c
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 ^/ g7 l O# R' J0 c9 [ D1 z/ _ Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# x2 o5 ?; s9 u6 z& w
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 D. u- k2 A0 z* I0 V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# r; ^* P) D/ L; C! q E
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 T% v0 e9 z3 ]* Y4 b; W. l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 ]' b, j: v0 m, ~- O+ _$ ^% o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- Z+ L( k b# X
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 Y/ n6 W+ M d; uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 Q' |2 R y9 C: s( C! l
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 v0 l' A8 Q; {: c1 u3 E( r4 X7 b* A! c0 t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ b8 j7 j" w& A) B
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 C$ {- D0 ]+ X' ]* [7 W3 j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! o+ o3 K9 l+ I9 i' W% h: m
30,000 new households will form in the province during
# |+ r5 ~/ j+ G( C5 B/ S+ g8 d2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., H7 N" H# O$ t. U) z" y. K: o& v
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# D7 b" J% [- s1 [( x% [homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& B. S0 k) F& K, `* v7 `2 M: p3 D) T
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 I- K, c( n3 e/ }has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ G* V8 `% e9 i: M0 Z$ Q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' r: S; J) F" m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ B3 ?% W% v' U" _+ c8 j$ g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ i; r4 `6 b) S8 x; lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 }0 r! Q( }1 u+ Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, m0 r) M V' l2 p0 T N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) f$ x8 w4 m0 W5 w9 S" e" A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! u* l$ e6 P! P4 C3 L3 z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. h( M3 Q$ R8 b
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 V. m6 |6 A! O. zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' F/ E! J" d* F" P$ B( x o8 z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 M& d: M# Q! ?% Xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' E1 N& C7 Y" ^+ D* l! D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 M. F/ x* i; T5 k* k. |$ E2 r; t
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 M) R3 ^ I5 P( v' sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* T7 S) B/ Y5 r& d1 Urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: l8 t: C1 O& D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ }( p& b& X% n1 u6 t
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 _- [; ]4 z8 j
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; S) ~( Q3 Y9 F
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 D* K. q# [2 ^8 i- w- B) r+ mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. M+ h9 S+ R. C2 L
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 V5 v7 Y, H9 I2 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 S! t3 ?9 ?9 t- Xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( ]' e$ }# P0 u
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. S4 ^$ w. }. x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& `' m/ w6 j% D5 [1 I# z" Iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 F E; w( ?: \# {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 [9 `6 N9 _$ A* s m3 s' ydeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; P5 Q$ U! b+ \2 M+ E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ t3 S5 W1 m+ A, V- N3 K
leg down over 2009.
. K) J. q m0 z, b7 s
" Z4 B, ?% W1 g* R! n6 |3 X/ l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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