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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' A: S& y$ i3 c |Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 R% s8 z+ C+ ?% ], v l1 Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 q# r" g! Q) z1 mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 ]' P$ a, j, R0 }/ E2 P2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" v6 r1 i( i% q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& n, y2 i+ s: H& |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( S+ F8 Y) o; G( {% o6 \- [6 othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* r/ I8 Z M4 K+ H/ z+ q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* w: k) p& o) ]- ^6 m( B- l3 [ e4 h
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 d4 J6 k8 A5 p: r1 dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' @* a b: X2 r: H9 V+ E/ Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 x" V2 Y) F' U# |+ U1 L. g$ Qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 j8 ^3 g' J' V( z/ ]8 n0 ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: o# {3 _3 Y. ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; M, S7 f( ]8 j: d7 ]30,000 new households will form in the province during* }. }" s! \7 Q' w- N5 Y* R8 R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. N5 B9 H6 V, l3 ]% M9 n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 {& p4 D3 Z5 F7 r
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 g( ?; {9 ]2 O8 gduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ Z) s( r! s9 h; j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ q& Q$ `: s- ]9 m {7 [8 f) shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 a# a2 b) N, r( H' V3 ~
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. t* f! u& J0 }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 B; D7 y) ?! \7 x) o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 w8 }$ K* u" I
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ }# U2 K( @( v$ u% a1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ V+ M; q+ H: i C; qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 V' z/ h$ }* Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! r7 F3 O" Y6 N4 N4 M* h, htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
k# }: J' W" _* U" K9 Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% c8 S7 }: f0 o* H5 i/ ?
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest P6 r# Y# n% `' S6 k! L; Y4 S
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 U1 C" C6 L3 h4 }resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 s( ?8 z4 ]* f' n( m. Q& ^+ [major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories, o( a5 u& V- C6 g
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; N5 I) c8 O. V' H: R, ?
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 O! k: Y5 }# W/ H9 j& Z0 D. tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! d8 J- i% b3 \- k: z. y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
t' _0 { X2 b' G& i9 WAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan0 V; K/ O1 E8 D0 [8 P' ]- ^
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 M! [4 _5 M' w% S# Urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 X3 ?1 o" C! hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 }2 ]* ?* k a3 C! |
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ K) u! B0 s7 ~$ Z+ y4 S) U d, c8 v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( J8 L$ T# ]! g5 r* x: r3 aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# h9 H5 p6 y# ?$ ` tresale price in February is evidence that past prices' ~: o L+ }% ^; B4 L% _/ n5 s( m
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 r* ~3 N$ V9 M$ A3 T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. g% ?* s( }6 X: w! y6 F
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ B% E' U7 Q! s; _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# C3 o. d( ]1 J" r& [1 H- [2 lleg down over 2009.; z# C; `0 [( M+ {
1 H9 l7 S' q' d$ F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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