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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta% C- [1 V+ n! C# m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% L9 ?/ i7 k' ]( x4 b gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 K& {' A# l1 h% e# a1 f9 l1 `
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 h" \* F; w* Z8 r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 R% @! y5 R# Z# Q uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; W e4 k; d0 x$ [2 Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! d$ G* Y, Z$ o* s/ e( y0 d
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( x8 z9 z1 w8 r2 z, }. r' C# @may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 p+ b; C. J' gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# {4 F6 _- [' V( ~
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# k+ @2 U; L2 E U+ \- C( \( U! Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 F- s( G( _3 O: Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 j! j# I1 e) E: A; U0 r, s1 Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 b' p. u: h; M6 Z9 |6 F& X: j3 Q/ hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 y& {8 F6 p& `3 J; m30,000 new households will form in the province during
% B( O6 t- D7 a4 u) i- X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ o6 w7 N. c$ ~5 SEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" K" p$ Q$ P' ]6 F9 {* V4 [
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* [7 q2 a, B9 A4 Y" o
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. l2 g4 Z2 \* b, a- o! G C2 ?
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- @$ P$ F+ V% |0 |& p) i
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 s3 @# `* R. `( R: e. @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# O- w1 V6 r$ ^- Q& ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! N& F, v1 W4 F: A) }9 V, W" Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# T$ A6 `. B1 \1 D& e" h& i& Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, A: O9 N- ]# P5 \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& r! T2 f, N! O8 G! I0 j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ F6 B2 e/ }$ w! J5 n! Ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 H; H# b5 w" L- f: Otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# z* F) ]9 m& K- y/ l6 n/ s8 Q( @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 |& z' F2 s* {) P7 P
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) l9 A4 K* Q. s3 x% z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& A7 `9 ^# B! v/ C, d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; H3 p+ l5 j8 w+ d( imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories; [9 W8 j- Q0 H' R) a
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled# `, A1 o$ s I7 t8 w
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ j4 l, R* K3 N# ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" [, r* c r4 m- |$ v; `' N& N1 x& G% _boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 Q0 _+ k: q) [8 c {
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 t$ f& q4 L: O# O! m6 a& ?7 Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 a E8 k5 ^% C1 N" N6 trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 W" Q( Q+ T$ }: k# w2 \
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' @( ^+ L: X* z$ V* F% W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% u: E4 j! \, Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. W" B8 A2 l( d9 i- C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. p7 |( }8 N& d+ b/ d# K. e, E* O5 Gresale price in February is evidence that past prices$ ^! L9 M {, B0 ^' q. L
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, F$ T) ^/ y* w/ Y- o4 m+ e
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. O3 Q- R) D4 J3 e% S0 q! ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; E9 R1 a. R2 `8 Z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ a% F$ l# U" I pleg down over 2009.( Y' X8 @( m* M4 G J: N8 y' w! e" d
0 i D/ _$ i* ~
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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