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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 3 h4 {5 j, ~2 s9 ]7 M2 Q8 q/ c' G1 V
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % k: W2 @( |6 f0 V4 J1 O/ G. j6 ^

* y: j4 ?/ P6 K8 t3 L6 U, K: ]"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ! D, h8 v9 W) A7 q4 D
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' k. C" P3 X+ d; o# c/ t4 y9 K
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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2 j) U( m2 e- zTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.( F' v/ E7 O4 e" U' D- v0 b
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。, U4 k7 Y+ B/ s
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! g3 R# ^+ J( E2 H, H4 d
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
! t+ ]8 v4 c# G跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, ^7 U( I2 d6 a# @! Q很多人都回学校深造去了
/ p1 k$ R. G: \0 w* [# O嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
4 ]9 N! O9 q8 e) `) T% [Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 t1 J" P5 W" F' D/ l  Sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# a% r1 G, T7 L9 b+ M; `0 k
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ D! G. C$ h9 Z" I2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 E8 h6 }- P" {& `) O% i, @. ]. yformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' q& m# g8 n7 A  r  W7 q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 {) v2 E- |" m2 J1 I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) L# x& f7 {9 e  f4 D
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- e5 k) I7 K( [$ \( N+ Qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 a0 b" o# E; ^; y; Z2 Y, i
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 l; c1 K+ b9 g6 m9 H2 t; Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
' Z, T8 q, }% ]) wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 o* F) Q! Z, L. e. o
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 \0 n- b1 w' Z4 r% P9 y( M9 N2 Jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- W6 j) Y$ {' x! x( k8 c
30,000 new households will form in the province during
% b# \% Z2 G+ O4 n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( x8 J8 H$ Y2 V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ R. R7 G) L6 |' I; V' A- I- ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: f6 u! z( I; Z. a( G' j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# |0 m5 L; _! ]9 O( s5 @1 ?6 m
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. C/ Z- X0 S: p: _3 s4 T2 Y" n! q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* v& o9 C1 {+ B( {4 \' f1 L
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* f' \$ z: K9 T% I, B
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 _% k* e- j# ~# T9 y5 @! z: Gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: M& I' }4 x6 }: z1 l; d6 Dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; n, g4 U3 p0 {- o$ L: ?* i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( U; u) _  F4 P( J, lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
; x7 C5 m  I  Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 c+ v6 }% {; h: g  H5 b
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, {* [9 a( b5 c6 x% D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  j8 u5 P- l! H/ A( t) N: x6 q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ r- W. t/ l& g! M- O3 x( z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 B* x5 Y, V( ?5 g+ q" f$ d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# J8 j# s! A! k) H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! ?- T& V. N. x1 N; ]' K! @
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 D0 J1 T$ X9 }1 D7 }$ Y! i# E
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# S) k" W' ]1 \; U0 y  X/ G9 ]The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 a, L3 l/ Z4 O+ z) w% _
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& V: _+ Z0 \; u, H2 j, AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 H0 h+ u9 u- i4 B! Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* T& ^5 |0 K( \relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 U) y4 b) \1 D' F4 @$ z9 Xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. [7 N: I5 I: |! `
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 N$ t7 [% @' M" X# v, [
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.  [) Q+ z! X$ A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 w4 W  _6 I" D  Nresale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 A4 U! V; j$ C5 u* bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  a& W0 i- N, `6 L, ]1 Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
  H; J( M' N) }* s. Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 Z3 U$ Z! [7 A. f# X5 j6 PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: d' E4 r( }) ~  |
leg down over 2009.
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# y7 N3 ]0 L" y. R6 m( a# P6 J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 {& f/ v6 v6 D1 x6 g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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0 W4 I* q: X5 @% X  O$ E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; }: Y7 N, {& z. G, h; ^  D; v
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments9 K+ C0 F4 V4 U- J) ?, w

2 A5 p7 o2 Z; i# u$ i! [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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