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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.8 e% q) P# G$ }# @7 _

& {+ c* C4 U! g: F9 e2 m. D$ G0 Z1 gTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & b% b0 c, T3 d6 z# K. ?$ ~* s

- |4 ?2 A  N7 g# C9 _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 5 T8 q! V: S- {1 l- h! c& A% Y. ^$ P
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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) w, ?5 J0 `0 s/ P/ LNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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# j0 V1 N: ^7 Y( X/ Y- C- `) B) ~TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 e9 p" e  N% W# \

" Q: N& R& [- x) B# Y) F"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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, ~% N+ p: _9 @( R6 v8 LTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, i$ _8 u  R& L7 hMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; y/ v, \( R. @
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

: v3 `1 i; ~: x2 ^; w% q4 J4 p- e* o# E% i, B0 N0 [1 i; s
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes," Z% D: i5 U$ Z% ~; I6 v1 {
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。& C0 l) F7 o, f8 o, @
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* F  t) s: ?$ t. ?: I
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 f2 u) k: `+ x0 i" S, y* N跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! X3 h& `0 H( B% r; [很多人都回学校深造去了( {; }2 o0 w  n% M2 G
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* b; U1 x1 {( I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 ~2 w" @% ~# ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( S$ L9 K$ M- F5 q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, L- K4 n: `' \
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 R3 S% L; u+ E+ e" }$ [  A+ Cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ s! v/ {3 R7 S; [
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# S/ d, n7 Q0 W  D" {9 q0 Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 H7 Z2 K! f, B: P$ Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 v$ {6 {$ V0 ?pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# e' y4 O- `, |: Z/ }
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 P" h/ t' s5 t9 F
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; ]8 j: Q* u1 G! S7 d2 E5 W. {prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ A3 m6 J- P0 I+ V9 q& eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 _$ _3 P$ {6 [' b8 nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 c. R. P4 G( l
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ H# T' B& J8 z# p" k, Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.  E1 H4 W/ ?" w+ K" X
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 b5 j2 @5 a3 H% l  s/ y, dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 L4 Y& W- F5 E+ i
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. F  G) C9 E/ D' [1 vhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- h% t. S- T/ d( P3 G4 z  j; @: \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( R' `. p0 H5 f, U8 Y
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ [" A. b1 Q3 v/ d" usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 J' x+ E) J3 z. K2 e- ]clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 B+ M- C+ ]& d/ z  Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" @' Y1 g8 N, x4 {. `. G/ I$ Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) k. A9 t1 g2 M1 _
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% M& K. R$ o: l% {+ t- O# o/ qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ D6 [8 s8 J& g* J1 Q" m4 R. `+ w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 {5 _/ r2 ~' P% D" |  f8 S
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% e) b) X: R5 g, ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# i1 Z$ j/ V7 e3 w5 ^/ @( y6 l% Zrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 y& e% i3 a: |* v7 dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- H0 X+ y; X+ E& C2 z/ Umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" L& E5 c- q3 M/ `of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 r+ {- |8 c/ e, U8 u
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) V8 N, a  H1 P
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 O, Y4 Y; r, u1 |boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 i& y: q3 E7 H6 j/ pAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan0 R' m! a  [! G8 {! x' Q! V& Y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 F$ L" y5 E( b( _( Z* }. P- c/ A/ W0 Rrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# E" g4 D+ A! x6 p1 Y  @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even8 R3 K" \# C1 G% m7 x+ ]  g0 F) K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 g' z+ K: C7 `( K8 i
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 g, k) V" |" z8 [* nThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( L% I: x( I1 Q4 @, n; T6 Q5 E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, r* T' R# l& n/ X. ^! p0 C& r
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: C) _, P! ~# K- Chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, m# h7 u( J7 j, v
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. ?- |3 Q4 P( f! ]+ E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 {6 G- L6 G" c9 U9 I
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: {* z- n# i9 a* C0 Y+ w0 XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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8 Y9 y, W7 ^  J( L& E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% A" x1 h/ y. E4 R翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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! x/ L$ T  i9 I' D; rhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. I7 c% A4 r8 L3 g. M

1 Y& E0 z6 \6 h- j1 K( t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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