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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.1 e  O) V4 G) m0 E  ?2 _- c* m, s0 r9 I0 g
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
' O1 l) `! h: P9 M7 V9 i4 {
* i, q) r/ C+ \The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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- y3 d$ U9 W* `2 ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.8 l( W" W5 W- V: c. b; p

& ^" {: Q: J" ]Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 L1 {# k& p8 Q# }' P: e6 B0 @

' c# q. v. Q- v( y8 {8 }http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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+ s1 p; L" T! i! o2 ?TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
- u- j0 i7 X  |% g( I- s8 V 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . y" F/ l: ^) ?
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ g+ E  y. ?( r% j" |- ^很多人都回学校深造去了. H$ y$ r( |9 e; p" ?" }
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; y. X% I0 i1 e8 ~% I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 n* E, Y6 P" p8 }$ f- ?4 ?boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% \- h0 j) E1 f. h( m4 Q3 m" `
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 x8 |' g  x( n9 q3 U7 [2 @
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( l$ c8 A, c! Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# P. Z" a: n3 v6 w. J; yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! L5 [- [$ b6 o" ~3 E! A2 Dthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; a2 H) P9 C1 u) o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous5 g' l" y6 D+ T
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) X! I( ~$ z0 l& G; C4 p( xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 Z' Y5 K9 J8 t! t' bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( D% t# G- c: W5 T; s2 S/ U4 S
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 h! [; P7 f4 j' ~% y3 N: Byear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 \- i+ u1 o9 X0 h4 M2 s2 X. P" phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, s' {' b5 O* v8 z
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& @1 V4 o) I/ d7 l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ ~3 w4 K; `9 P9 A  M' |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 d8 N' e; I) e7 Yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
" @1 r+ \( [$ K) |* R" Z6 Rduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 V- @* Y5 M. I' i. S
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 Z0 A; f  {# R  I2 Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 w/ N; D; `4 s2 a. ~, |% f6 H* d! Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. g* k, v4 Q# F1 l$ M( s: d( {
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 f- s1 y; l+ y/ k7 B( t6 L% jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
  K, {4 i# ]( z+ y1 Q+ l7 c7 L" ~' c1 Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ @  x+ g, X* {# q- p! Z; t, {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# [9 G$ t% a6 Q2 L8 W* ]5 ~
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 m0 h1 C+ S' v5 W$ U6 O1 }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' [. i% u' L) L8 D) Q; y) jtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 \/ _3 h; v5 T- R1 a  Q' Munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& R1 Z  \  N$ V' h2 sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ h5 P  x  Q. p" srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ Y0 O* k$ u; G- p: n) R3 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 A9 X, P) x$ M9 umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. g; M: f/ |# Jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, M' Z- z6 O/ Drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; u7 o4 C6 w1 w' rThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! s, M% F, l# X: Z' k- L4 x* K7 Y. \boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) m& [# c$ N0 v
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 c% a0 {9 f5 L, k! |/ j# E, n% yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 e% i6 H) V% A, T9 |- }* m
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" D+ P% V) \6 |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even( Z1 u' d# F% R& a. H
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 r6 g: L* [' X3 |6 S& M! Non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., ^2 {, {: r% W1 {. {- T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! V2 D. I6 y5 A5 R8 vresale price in February is evidence that past prices) f4 t4 Z4 ^1 m3 y' b: v
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* t& [4 }) V$ T9 m. h1 v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 ]# F0 ~1 P' adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 t9 A4 {, [! Q3 i, I5 X4 B; P7 l
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ k" R) h; j# j1 Uleg down over 2009.
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; h- h  S  k# U9 E3 B9 Y0 o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. G/ J1 L4 m8 ?6 J# j
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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1 X1 k) w8 |9 j8 u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" U, q+ F6 k, s; L7 b翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; a5 }( r. ?! g* M
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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4 K/ M- H' [$ k+ b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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