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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 X5 N5 `* x! Q5 @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its P2 x0 p `. ~
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& E0 f8 `$ T7 l; q8 j* N3 a% i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ C% e* {$ |# J }' D, Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 o. G& [) n% C: Uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 \) H9 ~" q$ [9 K6 E2 e) G- y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, Q/ D' y5 @& @4 H8 }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ ?( n% Y* k% s- I& Y3 z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 z& M+ y8 E) @4 E& Npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 T* B0 ^# v( `
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 A' o; u1 `, Z3 Q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! T2 j) m: e# j! Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. ~4 m, s7 p3 o# Y, l/ w5 w t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ t# N. i% |6 u. i+ D% ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. p% q2 [7 I+ `30,000 new households will form in the province during6 V: t: H* y) A0 ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" K9 j }! ~& BEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, e5 `# s5 R+ {- Q# `9 ^/ lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 B+ i7 J0 p3 _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) c0 W9 k& |( D' V8 W9 H
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 p( c: |" W2 z7 {$ L- {households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 X& w7 k6 g$ @$ w8 @% p9 \- v% fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, ^4 \5 H5 G2 q" dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ i$ f2 k# U2 i7 n1 t: N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 G+ Z- R+ `) Y( Z( [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( {- B: Y" E/ |, r C
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# B" t, a! G$ f8 l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& S& s1 u& u* a8 n6 H0 e6 X1 Obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 m5 ]2 H- a7 q8 {, R* { m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& P+ F/ c6 B+ t7 R+ P/ eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& h8 R1 v) @' F& l8 a' k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, E+ P' [" l$ q1 w; Krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 J. x$ \6 ~) _7 _& n4 H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ L, ]3 _- b: F( ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% a, t4 {8 s/ ?. h' }. Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 t- C# r' p7 _/ f6 o% q! C5 A2 brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! F3 ?0 m6 H7 TThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& P% V3 t) q7 |6 N& d
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 E3 j9 c) t( R3 h7 r$ O8 B; F$ U
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan" P1 T2 d1 w! l0 |
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; r, y; x/ L9 m! ~0 I7 Xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# H9 \; h" D$ |! ]& kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even/ O1 r. U4 h3 z& a4 \
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* Y0 D! q& P' w1 A: A! M! S$ hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 A; W% p$ @. D$ l' r7 P7 X& M1 s
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. L0 |1 ]' e0 p, m* f2 U, p/ Q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 s% l: I7 r; c# h7 q8 u3 wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 \3 `! |$ b/ u+ rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 _5 V* @. h" M _0 bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: Z: f# s; E8 }7 x9 J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ L$ L. U! H/ B9 D1 y& d q9 J) w
leg down over 2009.2 M" M8 k" b7 N3 l
- z+ e& G9 L) B& `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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