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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
) \0 }% D7 D4 O+ ?3 C3 uWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) A' J3 Z1 |1 x# H$ @% }( V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
Y- s: i5 z5 {2 vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ ^% n& X1 s- c0 y* \) k
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 o2 k; ~7 o. Y& K4 m9 M+ m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ e7 @: o7 V2 ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 E4 V& R; Q) B7 E3 Qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 l. W! h8 M& W% P6 e9 r _* r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' S+ g' E( l9 G( _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# P9 A2 u0 c8 s5 bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 Q8 |) W- E) a5 W6 h$ A7 j+ j+ r+ v! Ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 g0 {. ^& I; V/ h9 Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! f4 ^% i X+ h. Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 t. t0 f! ~" N% S1 }7 r' \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 Q( n$ e! o9 b h: w! G' Z5 @30,000 new households will form in the province during; f& U V2 I4 o+ @7 k7 \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 L' \. P; Y. L) K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 N" c( J; `6 w. R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% H7 P: o2 a o) j" K: v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# C& Y* d9 b' x9 o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ {- b$ h, G+ V$ \4 khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 L% \% N6 ~5 K/ Y/ qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& g# N& X" _3 b/ a" j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- c( |! m( m0 [ w/ k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 b" H: o+ W$ rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' V# ?# V) p# j; P3 i8 a- u
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" G \, y4 c5 S" q2 v# R! l- Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
2 c9 u4 O4 j/ tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' f) ?8 X; E1 N! N( O+ s; z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 C0 }) D: ^4 Q, J6 M; ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) x3 Y8 e$ d! n( Punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
r3 `" [! f3 ^6 Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 U+ i" t5 d3 U- p+ d+ P$ N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 W Q% n3 t4 T4 {6 dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories M9 C; H2 U* ^8 p
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 S# P l0 R4 [# c- V
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' n3 {3 c" k+ x Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 I3 Y* r+ P9 ] y# y5 Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( v; @, X1 p4 D6 V' A" RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! G$ t6 l* T. `) W8 z4 |3 G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% T9 I7 r/ [# M+ d/ O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 d% P% h6 B6 U1 q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ n3 ?0 U A- z; @- a' Q1 o: t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* L* G0 }7 {4 k$ Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' @ E; [- j/ S D- ?; s% ^The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' j& l- R9 }7 ?1 r8 [. F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ @. O4 R+ E& x) K' J& @
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' u8 M$ x" ^0 shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; h4 Q: o1 D' ~6 K- Q2 j! pdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ [5 o a8 z0 _8 m, h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ C7 ~" u+ B [. ^3 Mleg down over 2009.
1 P2 l3 F$ N! Y2 M$ e* O/ e
3 e/ Y4 e" `$ |6 M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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