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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics./ G% L- X+ J2 G, N: Q. ]5 Y
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # u. F- Y4 h* P7 W3 n

2 D% p: F5 @+ ]6 |6 FNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 B% R' g' i' k2 k2 m7 ?
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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. a5 M9 a: X1 ?, DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: l; [6 V. r9 E1 f! P4 W

' o9 Q9 J# ?- m9 D0 Z; R; rMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 e3 ^) b! ?. l! w' X
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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" Q& {) t3 P$ {6 JTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 Q! u8 N8 K4 w/ Z3 ?+ D1 n( I' q 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。9 s! j, }/ B* s$ m* v

' z/ T) a$ V( ][ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 : {% y) j% n( `/ n6 A9 g
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了3 Z3 x3 Q/ Y. H  o9 I) _
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- t6 ^  m! b& I7 ]3 @& l% Q# {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; q) O3 n8 _& h) n: x! y* F5 |/ Fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  m& K0 S$ B  J$ y5 `8 ~are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 n& i( x% n9 M# |2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) H; D. w+ ^& d) t: G3 t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 N: d, Z7 m2 |0 D( X/ l$ `from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,  _* Z8 g3 H/ g5 C  z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ t8 ]$ \9 d& m0 v, r0 gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. G' v! }$ Z9 q4 O" Ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 C/ \; h( T& a+ P! j( W; ~
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 ~; g* J- @$ D( D% o& B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; u. B9 R% A; q% [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ |, a6 W% V) o% V: w" J) ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* ^' V; a, o3 b# S( A, ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 v' s+ y6 ?# J4 z! w30,000 new households will form in the province during
# }. z  S/ l) {$ K2 N8 \& L2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: T  J+ V. h8 r! s5 i" L. LEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ _6 E+ F, d! F; ]homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 G5 m- q! Z: c  \  m- I2 c6 z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: }" u; V/ `$ ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& J3 l6 l+ q- F9 z& l, t
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 }* B( t6 m8 U5 x9 ]& x5 S: Fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( f' E: T- p% S  u! qsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- d  Q" |, t, N  C: h8 ~, P4 F4 gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* w' @" \' r6 s2 ~* fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 J+ A8 M& v' k7 A$ W/ e( }5 a
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 q$ Q( P, U1 g+ l1 Gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 u+ c6 M# g& N  x& I/ q3 ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 ^# `, w4 H7 b6 X* K1 R! _' htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 o. M7 a' L' H( D& {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 @9 O7 Q. R5 T9 x' z! G) N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) s6 i  }- w# l9 Xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; a, r% Q1 F- Z, ~) n  P; a: d# Z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ e+ R, N+ z5 t9 X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& c# K# B' Q% t1 w0 B/ }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 e7 Z; J+ `+ z5 i+ ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 d$ ^& y" r" T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& j. q) X$ G  }4 \$ \) }2 z2 p
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 U0 c3 d, ^. A5 A/ q4 M
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* p( M3 v) P% j' h1 `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ n1 J7 D1 Q$ F5 L8 [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 m  p) {2 G* Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even& T" }/ K( E) X$ y/ y' J  H: c. g7 N
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ J7 h% }: p1 W0 J5 j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ a% s. L4 _  `9 n" _
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 S1 m5 T" a0 A4 |  h! nresale price in February is evidence that past prices( @, e* a8 j; U: u! [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; {# K. J) A/ _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 o4 R. Q5 R9 p! E! b  `' Sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 ?2 {# P$ d  D1 }$ z7 G$ Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 s" c, T1 h- }' p* C: ?8 n3 }leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* c& }5 {3 f/ G- l1 t" I8 N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ( W+ U( o5 \8 w( M! c
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 t: o/ i  x+ s. D! B' u: ]6 o

8 M- j& n3 `+ Xhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& f0 P0 {( w+ X$ D
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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