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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% Y. g0 u! X2 A7 u. ^0 q. F

  H/ x, I* ~( ITD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 9 M3 U% [# r; B, O0 P

  c$ _! n. w5 G( I3 y: T- {# yThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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$ F: ^* R$ p4 J) a! a- W9 D"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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! |1 B  P1 R5 X3 w2 pNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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8 j& O% ~3 l4 @, ]TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.! H7 ]) V$ d7 }8 l+ a

  ?0 t5 j4 G/ A' S  ~# D"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ; r+ E" k$ ~, N5 y% W/ ]
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , m  b' Z& p) g- e: V/ p5 S/ g

9 n5 ?1 F) U1 \+ p2 Ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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4 ~- C; O9 z7 J5 c. L1 S[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。  J9 q1 d& A( _) z, O7 L. a( w9 l% |( t
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- X3 C9 |# h4 A+ ~( q, M. y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  u- I6 h9 [2 @- O: D9 `- w; R- s跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了+ F3 Z4 e% N' K8 @" r& u$ C
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta: D$ q/ v- d% K! U3 L6 n- H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 Y( c% A: r7 `3 q2 Fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- g4 N2 i$ @  _7 u6 Z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 o- b- F7 m4 T/ ?( F
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. K" [8 `- c6 Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; ^( O3 Y  |9 F7 tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' \" B+ B5 \9 O! h1 M$ Qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and  V% C% L& A* g3 m( L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 g  Q$ W2 k7 \5 d1 \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ j3 d6 k1 f/ j* `3 l+ gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 O* w2 {0 ?9 f/ Y- Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 L9 F( j/ B5 p6 M$ pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 s8 ?) P* k1 D7 F8 Z# h1 _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; v1 p5 b% t. w# m: ]% Q- u2 g
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, s$ n' e  q* F. ~4 J' c# g. u9 A9 J30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 n2 `1 x! z9 I2 W# O, D8 [% q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; O# U" l% m, I
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& u9 |- P9 }" z: h4 w; A' W2 g' X
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
  ]' \" N3 e* Oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: C, H3 K$ z9 m9 I; t4 t; rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; B! j* L: c% X( \6 L! [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 Q1 M/ _, R3 S. fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 v0 l4 r  |2 J  U: A
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 h: ~0 H! @. n( ]" \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) d1 _1 R' d4 t" m
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 d! p) ^7 S( |- X1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' f! k, e6 I, c# {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 |8 w3 o; p) M/ b& x, pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 f$ A. q0 P8 g. J. Q( W& _( S& Y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) X& p. ~1 i$ cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& t: ^& x' P5 G4 V% `
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 E- H( A! h3 O8 ?5 Z7 O6 R% f8 rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( ~: V: x. [$ p' e  t# m8 u
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' C# U2 t. o# }6 x% P
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 ~5 a9 T- \) P3 Nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 k/ P- y5 ~7 V2 irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 `( A1 f: E4 j  m7 k
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. h: C; o& N/ D; p7 u- K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 k* m3 U# v/ D0 \/ E* t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 D6 n7 J/ N) o* A8 uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" j2 b5 Q7 a& D! Q3 o3 _' O+ n+ @relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. `" h% v: v! y5 t/ d7 W2 kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" {% h0 e9 T; r3 @! c( o" Y- g0 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: b- p7 x  t! m: s, v$ B- yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' s" U9 j0 t2 T: z* C- eThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( l5 S4 k: J& Y8 ~2 O; Y! a# n
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 n7 I  `# {) u( T+ o2 B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& S3 t+ r- T: M! v; k2 x
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; ^" [$ Q: [7 ^3 odeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ G% t7 V, P8 L1 J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: |' }$ z/ D, F. p+ Aleg down over 2009.: ], s/ a/ p$ l# V" p. a

. g! b- C- ^" J% O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) l# q# _  b9 z, f2 G2 O# Q  @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  A$ L- O+ f, ^9 S9 F翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments# x. G/ L4 N8 N8 W- a% v; j
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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