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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 S, }. G, V5 h4 N6 N' F- i
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 |( `5 G) @1 G8 S- j' V; m
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 R3 i7 W1 e) d; B# p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to D+ j. {' |( a$ A& A2 u9 g
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, A+ V, A O. A* n7 ?6 T w3 [8 }$ F7 i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 F$ y1 q+ V* C2 Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 F5 k; M" v0 N# Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 V- m" r. l' I$ T0 u3 }% X0 \
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 }# |4 ]$ Y8 x+ Q8 _! [" W9 q8 U" c
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' _ y, b- t! P( ~4 H0 u$ D; o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" S2 I- b5 v1 M7 {0 I ]' Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ h |' a: y9 I8 n$ p. [. Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, b* _7 h* b+ H7 r/ N/ l9 myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 [7 z0 |( ] }/ k
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. ~) j: r0 `; n( s
30,000 new households will form in the province during- o4 ~8 z3 J5 a% i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ g. _% U% m% g: p
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ o I; P8 l4 O/ Y; @! O6 ]' g. k/ S
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 B$ p( E1 X% Y
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; ]# L. ], v& X- O. d
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ q, q f* g5 Hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& N C# X q b7 u q7 ~4 B
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 X' R* K$ Q( Z3 ~9 Ksales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: F1 P6 C) ?* u' ?8 {, _6 c! jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% E3 T, H) h3 G8 Oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 c7 L% |% B, F( K9 q) O1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 ^% ~" Y7 e+ Q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* E) B9 a" t2 N; p; p/ W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( N1 Y2 v$ z( W: R
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 X; _. ^8 u% N; W2 |$ s2 aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) |* U. {* H0 M punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 h; }* `. {6 [% E7 H; W1 ?! r
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) N- z4 u2 ~, Q/ w d$ V: n
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! c5 U: S$ W& @7 ]/ l9 K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ Z9 p- E& M# Z( G' `of new singles, and, with demand having cooled% w/ w& S* N% k3 @$ @" A' @
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 t: G, g8 w% B' \1 `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' }2 j& X6 i9 v+ S4 n- q& Q2 H0 Eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ U5 R& Y/ Q8 m: a) tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan5 z4 F0 Y3 _) j
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 i; X, b! b# x9 b( k7 m* Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! `. G9 W H8 W0 _) A9 U2 I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even8 S& T; R. p% |
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 l7 W- x. I+ w5 E8 u) ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 |, H! \ u, D* P% B- KThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
9 K: T* z0 D1 @! rresale price in February is evidence that past prices A* v3 {* g( y' o [- e
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ p) ^2 c) ]4 ?6 b+ X% s! F; c
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- D; s$ N5 o, ?7 t# P0 ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ Q2 ^1 S, p! wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
4 i( T J" l3 M) s& zleg down over 2009.6 `1 a- F' \) B( L6 j5 E2 P) I2 e
5 g' I1 D7 p) s7 X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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