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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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( h3 Q1 ?4 p/ J: VTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! x/ g7 K& N; P7 d  v

3 f& i7 L- ]! n1 o/ NThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. $ c8 f( Q, y, g

% u( W2 ?, P7 Z6 M& ~' @"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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# x/ J, ~7 j' F$ f$ v9 b( E"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ l) P4 G/ u- d; z

9 u7 p) S- O+ U$ A$ D& B7 z: [7 Z6 TTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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7 A3 r3 n4 J+ C7 a$ `4 N* y) R) r, a$ P8 Xhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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& A5 P, M( S9 |9 BTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,9 H' e! M# h5 J  ?/ N

# V3 i: Q6 l6 e  {[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 ^9 H) \9 k8 N
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 i  \- W" t: c  j1 c  t
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( J$ ]- K5 ~. Z2 s3 D很多人都回学校深造去了
2 q; ^; R. O+ ?# Z嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 m$ o1 i5 K1 }$ z" I" |5 h/ j! V
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ B" Y/ o$ \& j: K9 {+ P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- B4 Y8 n* ^+ t" y3 H1 Q! w- I6 Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) _+ N8 g2 |, g# B( x0 H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) D. N! {, i# e% Q% h& U' V5 k
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! U3 d& w$ d' ~4 M
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 z9 w+ Q3 B9 E, `/ L# E; n. Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 }" F+ F2 |5 \& y% \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! m; \+ K% k; H4 j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' V+ @" \9 e& x5 D3 t% }( L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( U( I/ I7 P, e
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ t" ~0 q# o" B" g
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 ^& `2 f% K" A  r2 Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 Y8 y7 E4 T, J6 n0 E
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! l" r; a* ^1 X4 `" j6 E  s+ K30,000 new households will form in the province during
; I8 s4 g+ J; q) u/ }2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' \- r4 k' c* b4 t+ I, O% u( ?Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# {# i# a9 ^, x8 p
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, S6 Z% x7 u# x, q/ K. x% d
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- l+ c& _" a$ b6 Fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 m) ]% }! F. ?+ c$ d3 o1 {- C. V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. v+ i% K/ K( {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- s) q4 P5 d6 Q: E# X$ e8 ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ B& L4 h8 j6 y3 ?5 E
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 @4 y4 M( f" }( B8 E
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ A0 w* C/ s' ]  q  |/ P: b
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 ^* O# H- x( l3 F1 h3 z8 Nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 t7 w3 e9 u  Rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 m; p) ^$ y! Y) |: t4 p0 k! B4 s& vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: O7 D, m* N6 s7 R0 g2 xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
* }4 V* @: V" n: o1 c0 ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& q: i) z# `. m. Lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# j7 {1 d4 E, }3 Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 k* y9 |  S6 i% Y: k3 u# Y) y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% S! J' O$ \- g. B! `% Oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled; r0 p# R  j, G' \6 A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 y1 a* F0 O" W
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 S! x& S; }9 K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 _/ H9 w( o9 R$ E
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; |! @4 E7 a- U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 J6 d! W8 b7 ?) o: ^* c1 Krelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 D6 J4 |" I: M0 a7 c
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ ^8 x& `* Y' Z0 |though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ l: x; {1 J  f- Q8 A6 o0 |  v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 n* T4 ^& ~- h' O/ A9 O7 @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 n, I4 q! x  i/ V) C7 F- y1 iresale price in February is evidence that past prices8 @  N; u" Z/ ^+ O; i" ]$ `
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! a  B; o7 H; H7 C& k# `  @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 l" I( Y8 u- F2 }4 i0 [! ^7 T4 |deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( G- A& ~% Y8 v. {Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  I0 G3 k; @4 `( ^$ K7 ?% j# |leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, t- N9 p2 |3 x$ o4 @' uAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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1 ~3 K, J9 ], {* c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 `" C. t/ i1 a# F/ {3 J翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 C2 H/ l  M! Z# m6 X
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 j" h# E, Z" l# T/ B; N
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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