ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.

* c/ ~& s2 {. y- h: A. uTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
. I4 |$ _# o0 J$ [3 [% Z( P( h
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

% k: I5 X+ k6 T' P8 F; `"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
6 \$ }; ^- ?4 ?5 e9 }+ P
7 a4 X2 n; g' _: S9 `8 I9 uNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
0 {  _% v) _+ l. w# `( A
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
5 [- s6 k& Q9 b. y8 j
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.

4 v( v. g5 W8 P0 x/ J) N5 W) h" c/ M# wMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
' x3 p: E# {4 t" l( I
, j) d4 Z3 i- _; Shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
, M- E' a  O8 {) A: J# U
; `$ l, U. \$ {: r[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
( k: `3 a" b4 W9 B1 f  M3 D2 O跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
+ M; V9 s3 K2 u; }0 h4 j  @嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& u  W; J. C* a+ Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) f; A3 y. a4 T$ o0 |- @) a7 sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- x6 c' s% }0 t- Z* ~2 T: smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# ~: z3 o; K, c( d2 ]3 d+ @to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ _4 O, P/ f5 I7 N* @9 N9 lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* X5 x+ d) G- q9 x, C2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( z! y" z) @# l5 Chomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ a" x6 U' z+ M0 T* I' m+ ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 K1 A# z# a: w6 _. k+ @during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( N& {! l* E, p/ k  t: Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' U% t" X; Q- ~5 Y7 I- Mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! _3 l) z" H  e6 `  {1 v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# Q4 Z- _. n  s! l7 esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- ^* |/ A  {- b- A" O' l' E  Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# _% V) e! o  U6 f* I4 _- x2 ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; n5 T5 Q$ J) F8 Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- J- S+ s( D. u6 k0 z3 H3 Gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 s3 f: r2 b8 gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, m3 {1 m3 ~6 ?rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 P/ N. Q% r( g6 IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 f1 L8 P; j' V9 g* CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; G. v9 q) D" thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 d" e7 o7 B. H6 s6 ], j4 Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: h4 ?: V7 x. U* d, i8 A% RThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 z4 \6 K$ j, Bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ |+ l( b& T. ~9 g( ]  L4 m& Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 o$ y! F6 B0 r7 e1 f/ A  kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 {: M, n: b8 K0 R# Y5 e  AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
3 i4 l0 k, H* Z3 c0 L, L
  s. T/ K# U* V5 E, C9 w# E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' K, b! x( y5 l. g7 m翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
. z$ A% I- }7 a" |3 ~
% k  n8 D' ]. d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing