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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 [2 y9 h* D! y+ JWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 x% _: l& S7 L- C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- F3 T6 G; r t s5 x2 gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ ]. s- {) P) H2 s% }- i2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. O2 K" \( ~& a* W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! r5 i, m$ B i. v `% ~; d( g! {# bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! R, J$ U# w2 Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 ?. @; Z9 J' Y; Y2 ]& f Emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 i- ^( Y" [" k8 y1 N( ]7 I
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 ~3 I( {" h* z. t$ O$ sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% e6 C8 F1 L- P0 F: Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year I) ?# ]3 k1 H: @( @. L/ u
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. w0 e+ H2 l- S6 @) m9 _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) L% l0 }6 E6 F% y5 y" d Jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( N6 B. F3 ], R5 ~1 g5 D30,000 new households will form in the province during
. I0 s) F5 }* ]4 [9 Q2 V3 m! _2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% V8 T: _- T* Q$ t; Z/ L4 Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: c) p, a5 C2 Chomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 a) |4 D' [6 [8 {
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% h, z o* n T. Jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# j5 n- X$ g0 U2 C0 v& z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ D9 B4 }5 U- y' W: G: x6 h8 F
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# n% x' t( {# t) n7 A6 H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" ~- N* [" K4 _% W, r# e! D+ _; B! tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, U2 U/ |, I: \; w' }- E+ Oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 i( F% S" y1 N6 \. k- @7 i/ b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" ~% h9 g& c4 i5 S3 J: h" Y' n8 V
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ k# }, k; u' [buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 M5 d2 x8 f# B2 Ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& g: O9 E5 K# A; f7 N: c3 uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& @# b# P% F. lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
b ^) m* ~/ O3 _) }$ Urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* |: Z/ R" u0 v) jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ \" R3 o1 W5 |8 p* T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 j* s1 r- n+ ^% hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) w+ U V/ Z! D4 x7 K+ prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 R1 Z8 P! R& x' T$ G
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ m0 T/ ?* H5 ~$ m" F) Aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 w W+ v k4 `6 Q- jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan% x, E5 ^1 L* M$ z% `' V( t
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 }$ m& M; {& g4 D0 R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 ~0 H! Z; _9 r4 ?' }2 w" k/ r1 ^+ z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! ?: v* P; [2 J9 u" wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) |& U W1 E; I
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. f8 X8 m# _8 \1 P7 [; ?
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 P% P, }* o+ D! f$ S% D" q' S$ |% e
resale price in February is evidence that past prices: x" T: x; W9 ?
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ m, l8 n$ Y/ y( z& d* V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 q- I; F. P$ b h7 a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 E8 ?! h2 S: B- i$ Q# i$ {! bAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 Z2 Q) l$ \+ j% ^leg down over 2009.
6 w6 a! P* }3 a1 e% C' A0 \# K4 S
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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