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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
, Y" W3 w. r* S6 `Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; q- i ?8 @% v$ d4 S: [
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. `& s. P0 [$ L. J5 \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 @$ ]$ K' `/ z2 ~' i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" ~* p: {. D! Lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 x" w% e3 C3 ^( a; {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% f! j# d) @3 l( a0 V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" c6 B% c9 r9 {8 z6 O3 \! R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 k4 }( Q( I: l# q0 t+ @( {9 ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ U+ P% N% h& [! J/ y7 {
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- w5 o$ \3 c* P, j& lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 X8 m \4 y: n( j$ o* [( Aprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. p; [! ~) [9 _- i5 g
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) H2 Z o! `5 J% V$ H0 uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: X( w( V0 B5 j8 ?, c
30,000 new households will form in the province during
w: h' S4 t: Y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 C% |% r& O5 c. p' }6 D* I4 |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( p$ \/ I% B+ h! k7 r2 J: `9 f" ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) i4 q( A* m6 H. r3 Sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) V2 K# [" B1 K) v) p! h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! B& F; F; A+ P7 \& d
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 ~: V4 `. a5 k9 _9 ], C4 W1 g9 P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 T7 [1 N' a i, W! s$ ~% c! \sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* B0 Z: H9 C. M. @7 p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is z3 [+ C# H4 y9 |0 h$ Q; }: R
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% m" H! e: z( j1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' h( z8 J) w/ H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" U( Z" @( ^$ J* |, w7 ~4 _buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 g1 M* j; A ]5 Q8 x- Y) C7 z, A; ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ I. I" Q7 B% T
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 N U+ h* j2 \! ]) k8 W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ w/ H1 P6 X8 [: x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& f" j& E6 U: q: U, d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 ~8 \6 M- v3 m5 a2 P9 J. Omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* j$ Z/ A4 t$ q& K$ g
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 H! N/ l5 b* G3 p$ @7 Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 F6 C3 _; {7 n* v. ]The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# w. V1 w2 t2 {7 c9 v/ N1 S& }! B
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( ^2 h2 q5 i0 u, z" `4 xAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 \7 X% |( K) a! |
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( v9 f/ W- F, grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 ^$ s% V% ~* T& S0 I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 l' G J! f' E& o: k( a3 h
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners5 `4 g1 o# R' X1 z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. M( ~, K4 t3 R6 }, z9 f( I. j
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
F9 T3 F* @; g8 }resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% o8 F" m7 Z" ]2 M0 V3 zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 I' b4 X" R; K9 G+ D* T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! M$ M& K- K7 I2 ^8 w7 k7 Y' U$ L2 L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' q# o/ z6 w5 J% A# rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 o! c+ s# r4 _. I
leg down over 2009.
0 Z* F- S2 l$ A0 V: N8 T# |6 ~; S$ g% I6 A
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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