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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta. N( O! |5 w+ M% m3 H: q7 f2 S
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! u# y. \) e, ~. i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! ~% v( a% M# ?2 k3 Z* z' D( _" A4 Qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 O6 F* C8 K% o6 z. h/ p. l
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) B' B* I. X1 vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" I9 k. {% w5 O- K" h. k8 O/ ^
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) J N4 c0 }1 w0 j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( ^; x! _/ a2 G) |4 gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous, t9 I% j/ {' P1 V
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 z; I+ V3 N; b$ i7 d1 Lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* t* n& _% O. k2 [! d( P2 B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year O4 ~+ E S* G6 K% b# m
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" k; ]9 Q- w* l0 y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- `/ X. p/ ~ L% R9 q' m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 ~9 H3 s* x. t30,000 new households will form in the province during& b o; s$ d( z1 ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 h# W5 _" `# o' N" @3 _& BEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 A4 x3 s7 Z# Z; s3 x: nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. q/ h, X% ?0 d6 o8 ~
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( j" |! U' e! G2 j( d% l1 `
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. m$ n$ W) S3 t
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: ~8 i7 r0 j1 O) T2 d I9 X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' V/ {/ k. E8 Z7 S% v# s4 Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& Q) y+ m. L4 G+ Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 N& W* ?! k4 w: P Z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, W+ x' I, T' o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 V4 b/ K* j8 ^0 v( G& @8 q4 r& Fsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 f+ M0 k/ @# ?! ]8 x# Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( K5 G5 a! ]9 etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 D* @" K+ {$ {3 G, {7 D# Junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
d) e9 J+ G- H& bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, `9 G/ {' ]# ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- `7 P# x; W% b# y2 b- Wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
Y4 j7 t( S! N: h1 dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ l1 ^- O9 U6 p+ `, hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! z6 v6 o0 |4 g& [: l, Wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: u. w$ S5 _: t% z. t
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; H7 K) n- |) ~' eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: T, W* q; C5 i2 M: B6 m) AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; j0 v+ V) l- d9 E) l5 R0 Uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 c7 M" d$ `3 q2 E# X9 {
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
% i; `! m$ s- b7 Iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even, q1 E" n9 V- K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ l( s& B* ~, H8 M6 i, l1 K
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ \5 `. _8 o/ K$ D- ]0 X' RThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average ]0 ~% w3 b3 U
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 q: U; x8 P: `) z% g7 u+ ^* Iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 A; z: i& \1 T7 F' fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ \: D5 x, t1 ]4 a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 X& L& W1 z* Z2 K- ^" vAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 m( f& [5 F" l& m( f+ }
leg down over 2009./ c% @+ J8 \; ^+ I" ?6 H8 P* L
/ ?* y2 I1 o1 Y% _[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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