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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) ?" ~+ D3 h$ S( ?8 p! v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* x2 p4 E* F- ?$ q* N' Rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- a& S" h+ E2 M- K, S& Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, `9 K9 W- Q* Y& H: k: i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ J1 l, K/ Q8 n* K+ Rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' c5 P+ t. I9 D% R* E
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. Q4 _: t6 ?& O- L4 f* ^* qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 B9 `$ V9 z- }
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous e: @* p/ i4 D3 n- ^3 t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" T( w% [% e1 o) ?
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ o) }0 e9 ]) H" r3 n8 |to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ S: |" H; S: K& v6 tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 B7 f2 m5 |* Z! \. I7 t, Y; Lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ |! p$ L) t, ?3 ~& o8 D
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ C7 K- f. A, |- b30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ X) I/ U; S' L2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
e- p+ p- U: ^Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 L- D5 f; y7 L
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* X+ x" D7 f0 }7 v3 Dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 z: a `4 H, ~& P5 U, Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ V2 y* x' s* f: h) _0 p& Thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 c: L; @+ z' r n# n
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* A2 b) R0 E0 S$ s5 g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 Q, h* T* a% \6 q) z& j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 Z8 G# s+ A0 q/ X
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: C$ l R* }; {2 [- d" W# q7 w
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 _" _4 _2 A9 Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; o4 T4 A- D$ `; d
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 u$ Y( a/ R' ~* P% J4 B0 Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ \4 B2 w9 O n
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ @' G4 r4 O2 r7 s# ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ j8 a: c- K5 s. q Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
Z1 S% k- N8 {resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; Z0 u5 d1 o/ I/ ?: P; \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 U) P$ [: {. O& u# ?* Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 ]$ c) l. v! o% _4 J5 Q; W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# Q$ A" i* [5 m3 o# q# dThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) } q A5 ~/ Q4 L X* N7 E
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! \0 [; e5 W1 k; I" \
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 f$ l# @: _, I$ Y' J9 ehousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% ?5 h9 e: B' V& h
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) C+ K5 g. S+ B* ^ Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 U& ^0 n( ]6 M! g4 R! a! c nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& g( |; N! L# d( D$ L! g- ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 m3 b3 K% G8 wThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 N: b' B- t' {) n9 ?/ z7 iresale price in February is evidence that past prices) v' E/ t( s c K
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 @9 v! N0 s( w- M- U' e8 o: X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! N# Q, x8 a* \5 G5 Ydeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! e( D% l- x5 B3 L, y! D# {0 G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% h" p$ @7 v, h+ `5 K, r+ Q
leg down over 2009.5 F$ `. J6 u; m6 m8 R
" I5 L; Y# h. b V5 h6 K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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