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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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1 y) s8 S5 f- m. E1 W; c3 O: u) |TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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+ E+ N5 C" V% z9 S* `The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * F  a6 Z1 ]0 h+ Y
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 x; N3 p" j5 w/ c# [
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ t; {+ t- y2 r! k

, x5 u3 X1 g% a+ Y+ M1 x. V% }( a& DTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- Z( H& U# N4 C' t0 `

! Z, ]2 L5 ~8 `, u"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ; y& R# k3 L4 b# N0 ~
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; W% r. ~/ {4 l! v1 N5 b* \) {

6 u3 [" I; f8 i# z( j# RMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 h# ]; `  D  c( C; x1 a, A
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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4 ~* e* b6 j4 ~; Z* U. FTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,6 G* f5 @; R9 @" T; ~" k

, W6 P3 g* u, Y& i6 T: l[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, x" w3 c& F# E, Q" {, _5 a 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ( K6 B6 U/ D& t2 r. b0 B
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了5 z7 f* b7 m2 @1 |$ P  c4 n4 J1 ?, k
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 u% V% T9 P$ ^/ V& j" w
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# y# D, S$ E* R, p/ \9 `! W* ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& k; E* h0 q9 i8 M" nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& J2 V( I) J+ i0 R
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 K9 Y( y# v' L. n3 g; V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: R/ f" y& z* k) \6 s1 F
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 L8 t# U  N5 c# a7 O* _6 bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, a+ e8 k8 Q& v( r3 p! W3 Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, S: z( m. _4 j# K1 @. u' {( M' b) k/ Y8 Hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: a. J- s2 I, e$ F' b; G2 f9 @
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ U4 l1 S) W% b( S' ~to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 ]/ e; C9 G  L; S1 [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 _  U4 t" E  E( }" H. D
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 E* z  L. g8 H1 `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around% Q4 u& X& t# m7 @
30,000 new households will form in the province during: N) I# g" r( {, e* e/ M
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.  }. n2 L, X7 n2 ?5 m: C: A+ x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# C% P( I# Q7 P' [) p' [+ mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ ^: p7 Z7 S) ]4 l& }" t% f: u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, w0 Y: k: C7 ]* {( t
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' V# n! A; [* ~1 @, C8 Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: t, N5 f2 v8 E' i. k, m$ b4 [- \during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; `! e/ X* |* u+ h5 b! k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( `8 j5 l* H, \& o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; B; ^" a+ e8 H
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; Q) c; e  @( Y/ O9 s7 L) d  g4 O
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* z% L9 e. i+ C$ W, nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ q  N8 H+ i  e1 [. k8 {
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! n8 T0 x& ^- J, \5 P7 `' ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 `8 \6 T& C8 k2 |/ N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 `  }* N# @# s+ F, C
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; p9 t; v$ r& ~4 j5 ~* krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  K" k; B2 v/ Gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& u+ d, ^# |, H: ?7 F5 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 z; t/ C- x  A- j+ }of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 w5 S9 g: W8 ]# u, W4 ~; ?& w. Y9 M  b
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 j- q6 i# G: q- S0 i' ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% x" u: d0 G- r  p* ~1 x
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 I" Q0 C- f+ j% E# g# b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- @5 y4 D9 P" W7 z. i; P& k6 Xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* Q" L6 J0 j0 k
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" q% Z) K5 h: B2 }5 ~" x/ u
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 I8 a5 T0 |) h$ ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, c! B# ]% s6 {. Z8 d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 y1 E# Q0 f+ }' J6 \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& G3 R& F$ }; G5 D2 t) T. f, c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% ^# @& J% M( `. D& O- p# Q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! x% L2 u5 y5 p# u8 o9 n$ ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 B+ d) w3 n& ]$ S, i* vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 U4 d* r( G, @2 j9 RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 g+ [( F2 S" c& s' ~
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% H- j1 w6 W- `) j8 N% e8 v6 o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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8 Y. p( K1 R( `- {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) S7 A; n4 |4 M7 L2 }' O
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& F. l( T' r7 z% l" R9 M! }% p
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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/ z; Q* U3 \' s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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