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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. * z: c3 X; R  b2 ^! T

' r6 J& e& s; a0 S3 R0 k6 rThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- u) H" ~8 H0 a/ Q0 L4 H/ \$ f$ T; F

8 `9 ?3 F% y4 ^' N* b) M% f9 ^/ TTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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6 }  C3 o# [/ m* S$ _7 |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.' D% i# \  j& w0 [# F( F
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. * g6 h9 K4 e7 b0 y6 p
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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6 b2 {7 \5 j: z* fTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,6 z; ?3 _5 {) K7 v; g' `/ V
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ u# h' C" f5 G5 d 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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5 t5 u* Y( g5 ^2 r# {[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" k- ^$ y' R2 X' N7 R. p$ |; t跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

  j9 h$ F, Y: _/ b2 u  H很多人都回学校深造去了
5 }3 b" _: g' k2 s/ v# d" K/ W2 ~嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
0 U) X# F# `' h7 KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its  h: a" H' |+ q1 o$ j2 ]
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& u* i# w( v. `4 b
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 D" y4 x& ~5 U# j: f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& D# x4 }% Y2 B& A- d- _* A" {' s% Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) F5 h0 z0 F8 Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& A! K2 l7 y% _- H) h' r% I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& t" u6 L" u& i1 ?: I+ Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 c1 A2 k4 H; I& c: Lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% }- C4 ~  Q1 o* [$ bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- y* O9 ]; a9 }1 k8 l2 u' n% M; [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* A' P: k, [' _prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: s6 x: g/ x9 Z" c- ]8 |
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. B/ `- K* a  M, \7 [
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ ~: d6 W# W9 ?( z30,000 new households will form in the province during0 f2 G2 ~8 E- [  U) O0 J+ n6 B% s& f  V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; ^. |5 z2 N9 c: z: P: Q: J  PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 p8 B2 l# O3 J  N2 W
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 ]; }# n# O/ C, {, Q* n. q5 B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
5 b; B- E/ `6 W$ Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% F1 w, d. c6 i3 ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% T/ u2 D, V' h7 T7 d3 h
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( J$ V) O- i% z. ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ n% |7 j- E0 U$ N6 d; k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ T, J: [. k+ r; @- h
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 V. f( ~5 n% ?/ p1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 |9 X, F4 w5 z! ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ v$ @2 e% o0 R+ A
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( F# L4 {3 J" Stwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) ~5 B5 l( |2 n# Nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. p2 P1 x% ]& t" e9 `: ]% bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 w! M; w0 C! b" R& p% ^
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* x1 O$ D: U# K; G% [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 T: {5 t' X. q; }1 ]7 }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 L( r* y; O$ L5 I% {2 N* M( c8 e
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ ~+ a3 J% ^8 e: Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 Q6 [! K' }7 _1 WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 E( v/ B) B( Tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 ]4 M9 O, E* T# I  z8 AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan, i1 W0 E) f) F' a' F
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# J# y. P7 W; O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ Q' D4 e7 k+ n1 a
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even, w) X* `; e" q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: \  b2 G! G/ ]! k! won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
  V+ {- A' v8 T$ W* K- IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. i; o4 H1 ]1 h5 h- A; O2 q/ v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# T  h8 I7 v4 S5 M' t6 |exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 C( W0 P  s; b. \1 Jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( I+ |  F( x+ a8 R2 n. o& ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 I  H! c  b2 M3 e4 z1 Z: H5 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* s3 k: X$ l+ v7 r) Q* x% _
leg down over 2009.4 K! w4 t, n0 `+ e$ t

+ t/ O; |  y7 G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 F4 H6 ~. s. V# N# ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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, U0 N+ I( D6 I6 C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. * P! S- r, [) w* B; Q* Z( S
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子5 G- E. G1 |! X8 Y$ C! g) T% Q
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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! l+ e) y' B3 O' j2 I- v, ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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