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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta. i5 Z A$ L# J6 e
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ t7 e+ C `2 Q! a/ |
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ _* v) n& k% G+ X4 l/ {; J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* K$ ^( v) a& n
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 |% y0 u0 @9 T9 h
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ e Q1 A' p: J$ B% f! _* sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- F# {5 i6 Q- L9 S
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 O* d! P2 t/ T& F3 Z0 F& Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% v4 d; u) x4 Hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 }& h- ?; }. ?" `' u; ^0 {( r i8 \
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined X# S! n2 G3 x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 s: M; ~2 h- d- mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 M2 H8 J* N) U# X7 q+ Byear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( Z: }8 n& U$ }; s# O' L+ @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. X& N% [9 J5 W* T; o30,000 new households will form in the province during
' p: y) ~, [+ M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 X' x, e6 B3 C3 YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' i) y# g% Q: P4 i1 thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& P# o! F$ A' {; {3 ^1 R$ @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& N5 e, x& J" H" o% G+ J/ U
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! _3 ~; A& w. s4 ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ L. h! f! T' K. u3 B" t; l% P# Mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 a1 z7 U+ {+ e: y- `sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories% r% u' p. A7 J4 K' T% `- y0 q1 d# Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* T( u; @0 d# m" c
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 m1 X* Y0 s7 m2 \( j, ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* n$ x) K4 K( Zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 b( [* W, Z' C4 {0 ^! @. h ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# Q& o& G- S& O1 L1 @! u& N# D2 dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( Z: i. v: S" Q- gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 o2 T2 N; d. G- }! f* Lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 S! X. J, R+ I8 C0 ]4 _# drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ c9 v( R$ B$ u0 x# mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, N F, B8 ^" u5 E. _- z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ A% d4 `8 H" p+ Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: U/ b. L8 v* ^0 G8 S% Crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 j, M; X# D" Y/ T9 \3 jThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s f7 R0 y( l0 C8 l) C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" N4 `" V3 P& I8 F4 u$ X) s$ QAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 @4 N. Z4 M- G) n" K; a* X! l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ V7 T/ o! t6 [: K3 \, C
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( k. _1 g7 C- a$ f
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ b8 _8 U8 S2 m: O2 G/ w
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners c: J7 m# |# Q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 y* n3 `) F2 K1 E4 k+ |The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! p) x) x$ v$ H) o7 X- Y2 ^2 W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices" f8 `, }1 p8 O6 q/ X4 }, h
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- |& \% s! `' B; i$ e
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 j* ]( Q' F! qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 A b0 H- z/ e6 I$ ]* I$ ]8 kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ V Q8 t; B& I1 r6 y6 ?
leg down over 2009.
5 B& Z' P9 o6 B% A
3 H* f: U& j6 b( Y: R$ w! e' E6 h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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