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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ r$ R$ d9 N8 R+ PWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 M' }5 X3 l" K0 i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, m# {. A( F7 |+ `$ s5 T9 G" R
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 v, G8 Z3 U j4 J) n
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: }8 {( f( t/ m/ t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 j: |; i" `6 S. h. Z5 ]$ |8 sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 m3 O/ E W- i ~4 g. ?0 uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 r7 D' V6 H3 w) M7 w& Emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 `* k# X" \) C0 V# opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! S$ P x* y& r$ o4 _8 L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ B3 Q8 Y+ ^7 y# I. lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 F8 G$ P7 r5 e6 t0 k
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- }, S, Z6 ~, v( ^year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* M5 f1 x) j W7 ] E" n" A
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 r* O7 ^% t2 U. }3 u9 G0 R
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 n4 N* P2 o1 R, M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& E1 l7 ]3 b$ X# e+ X0 S3 g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% ?! \$ l2 Y7 e+ {" Q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& o* I+ J; t& B# t/ f( J, O: l1 Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 Q/ [- ^' q" y# J+ Mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% l5 g7 \. f5 T/ Q+ [4 T4 e; ^% rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 Y2 k2 w! N" e$ H- @7 c
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 \1 v3 u1 _* V+ n. Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ R y& Q0 C. t6 A
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ q* r( o7 [& j l% U& ~8 s& e
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 X& D& |: x+ s8 k$ z5 ` N* e2 b: `
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 o: _/ e+ ]. d6 _3 W7 j" {
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& N/ Z1 @" g$ K1 j U
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 Z0 a: G+ T/ a3 x N1 X( j: b0 u
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; q$ b# M7 o6 ^, o
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 P U& n( Z, }5 F2 ?/ b* t7 s4 Z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" F5 a& W2 D4 n* ^9 x3 ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; L7 R+ C5 v1 D4 Q& W- @
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 G" c+ f5 x' f( z8 V9 S+ y5 }# ?
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# G9 m. e- k T/ a$ Y( g0 m5 K/ dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# U" ?5 \0 _5 T+ L+ urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% l0 h' u$ J3 OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" v: a5 o8 n1 n& w% O% W" {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
I2 J: D/ Y0 U+ q- D+ {, ~% EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan5 a) o4 u2 Q" ?0 H L+ A! [7 [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# R; B! [% E8 s! f6 a) drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ P; N8 R; N( D, @/ x2 K: Y, @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 _. |! _) h8 `
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! R# c+ T V6 M) d- f% H* qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ U% ?) `; Q0 n9 P( I; n0 L
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 \" ]8 |' M% u! C0 r
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; L# f" [ }0 `$ i' s
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 b" }! l. u* u. x3 t! Q
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' y; x* r% C* u
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 ]! ~9 l% j/ ` A T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 x$ g3 {& \2 U4 n
leg down over 2009.
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' S' [/ [6 D3 r' \8 l- o! P, }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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