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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta; k7 y8 f8 n# V5 c c& a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# ~9 f! S& Q* d$ H" H; g0 r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" o9 K4 k; I5 q" E( ?0 J9 ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to l8 e& L% x5 Q: a* z7 a3 N
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household C) E7 `- F+ e( _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 r7 W" ~4 Y1 J. m& n& _& k- @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,3 y3 q. F$ f a3 H0 q |% Z; M
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ p9 s7 k& \$ u& b' j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( F& p% w# L, space of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 n8 T: O1 b$ j. I/ Uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 ^! @, x1 R, _
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 }) Z3 b% ^, t) l
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 T- B& O0 M) D4 {% s6 D1 J4 Gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! c( M8 F+ v. ?. D# h5 Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 a! a' @7 a: ~ {
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 B6 G! `5 j* P3 R6 Q0 @2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 a9 P% }% j* H e0 `" c! [Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ P* K& y9 H) A) S( f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& E$ k5 R: G9 n! c' k1 A0 M/ P
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 A1 v( Q) E% R, Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- z$ |1 J% L1 B6 q$ P2 D3 Z( z0 Yhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* z$ @* i% m2 e; P9 J" bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 A! [0 w3 _0 o( X2 r7 z0 f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, H2 ~% d+ N1 G5 F8 w
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 K- V$ i5 T$ s0 [+ e- Y( n; \! {excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* ~. N A. q0 h E2 |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, g! q+ _7 U9 z R7 N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 B; b2 k0 L, T+ ^
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 Z; o7 V% v, _* @1 g' m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 S, A% B8 \* Y- G/ G4 X7 ^# M
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: T/ m) D7 p$ T2 e* P" Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& ^8 P2 G: P- W/ R6 F; {recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 a' A3 B+ U1 e7 a- S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 b5 O" _- e0 s/ _( Hmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 X% E/ W% S( i) sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* X3 ~! w; F4 lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ e) V0 T! i; t$ m2 F. e0 f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 H$ j7 _ [1 m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 k$ X* W! w# r9 m; }* g
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& w8 m% i# r+ S. F7 W' S
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' V' i. f: x: O" G1 u+ K9 }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 Z- V& }/ W/ d5 O4 Lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even1 L, U* p1 c; ~8 O- V! R
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" n. c3 j g/ Q; H. o
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. Q! V7 ]( O* L, Y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& W' P8 C( a9 s
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ p+ R o2 c7 O0 N2 f6 e% P' k+ a
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 k ` g3 T4 X' L$ ]5 {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; k. Y2 L- @( ], I
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, {0 l: T. S* T0 _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' j/ c, d& Q( [, T! |# o: jleg down over 2009.
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2 _/ T! r4 P; V) ]0 Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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