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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 I$ o5 I( \4 o) O4 ^' xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' i6 L- g# v& Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 c6 }* U' C- J8 x8 }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. U0 x* C, S: M, I) _2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 k2 P; a! ^9 }4 p; Z0 w: a
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ J* i/ n% C7 o( Ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 g2 o s/ S: f2 @2 w$ ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' g* b& v3 N* r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous u2 f) ]$ k2 S; `& ?
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 T, s- y) ^- kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' w( X- _0 I. x; Q4 P4 i& D3 ~; q2 |
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 m( _; X$ @- N$ D# S/ Gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, A0 S4 ^3 J f
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ M; j: H9 `3 k' H! y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& x% v" w& M3 j1 j3 [! @$ K) @; A
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 S [( Y# x8 e# |2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 L% P7 f2 |9 Y; b, d3 n! H# hEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s7 u" M4 P4 e0 G" g
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 ?6 g% F7 l9 i$ I) L: R
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* C! u4 O' m4 _# b: thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 _" H. J# V: V: s8 `households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 P- l/ e \- m6 i1 D
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ F% P' x0 j2 q+ o; wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' s9 h& L1 U: m z2 k) \7 Y( B/ K
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# [, S8 |6 ^5 H' H8 ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- r0 N% f6 b- l, s0 q1 \; @
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# h4 E+ {/ [2 K. M9 gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& w5 Q& R0 S& `" U$ `8 O% {! Q$ v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 F4 `; O3 n; `( N$ Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, Q4 H5 Q( W" k+ |
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
! U. ^8 t9 q# L6 T2 A, ~unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 J V5 H2 f8 |, @0 j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 e1 A; D$ }% N" mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 L0 _6 ~5 b. C5 Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% a# _) u! M/ B8 W i4 Lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled* T$ C- r1 }) y3 e- m! K& }
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 i- |( |3 o+ \; W* [
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& r9 \; w% M2 Q+ ]: kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& E) y( v0 x9 MAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ M4 M1 V$ W9 s! M7 Ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 d0 Y' Q/ b* v8 v; z( Arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( |! J3 o4 x/ h6 P6 m4 F' h/ t3 ?* fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 o. U3 L' E" i: {* I% c' lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% E4 {0 C4 I" o. Q+ aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
Y8 q, c7 l/ Q/ H" WThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! e2 m" B/ Y, F4 P+ uresale price in February is evidence that past prices# d7 a' H1 H+ l; w. I! u4 n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 A! `9 x. y; w: l; _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 S2 [: X3 l8 f$ F/ B: Kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' m3 Y/ o$ j/ X# I( e2 \6 T& |0 xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! ~# N" K1 p, Q( z8 Jleg down over 2009.
3 c9 ]: v6 V" v0 `8 e% `1 J9 z3 P$ s: D7 a7 `9 X" f3 c
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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