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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta/ I/ g. @; ? J9 V% F* H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, K- ~' M7 ?6 G, o& r& ^2 ~& p4 O
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* d/ G$ W! [, b. @- v. f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 B8 d0 _) F; Z: t9 U2 t2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 `% n2 c5 m3 T- o- [, ~8 u% B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 H! \ `% u! f* A# ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ K) c& t9 t4 s! l/ G9 n) h5 ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ w/ a; C- x/ b1 {' d% J9 N1 H. z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 i3 `8 {3 q' B0 K! b* e4 L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 W& e2 g$ p% q2 B2 Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ h! G9 K6 d7 |9 @ E! x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# N" p, x ?2 w R/ w0 U" Iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& S- H5 c% a5 b+ c* Z1 I) q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 V# D5 Q, u9 a+ j/ O; I5 K' Phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
" C. R4 @5 H n1 M2 m' R/ H30,000 new households will form in the province during
* k/ n6 ~% a; w8 N7 z. U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 ~3 s3 }" d, L3 G/ U6 x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 d' [- a2 D; `2 s* N7 u, Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
p) M/ x1 h. |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 w h; ]% I, S# X4 q( ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 B/ Z( m9 f& ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ o, f( V: s' n" [$ iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ o8 p4 w$ _+ b3 V+ ]: t- Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 W0 u! u, y; p- b- n( G& }/ V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( K0 `3 l$ F0 }1 Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: ~; F% E4 v6 h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 Y ? |( H3 m. a' X9 Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive z4 E$ u* J( A+ u4 C: m& f
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: y: _& k8 M; ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; @6 C! y( N( ~" kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" Q1 j% z9 ^& s* I! K; q4 L4 Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! n7 w' [5 w% T. J
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& b- }, a7 i" q: m4 d; \! hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" z) r! `+ C( @! ^% H9 H* J) q+ Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: o4 w% u9 g2 L
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, B. P' w9 F, Y6 d3 o. e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 r, }) O! T! L4 ^9 }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 w& O0 T4 ~. a. m$ X" Z+ Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. W0 }2 N' f! _0 H( E4 eAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ \! E- y5 E/ m+ P! j" k# v
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: ?" q E' r- `0 erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 j2 @: L: M+ u" M6 oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: s5 c+ B0 b2 f K9 nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ C# S9 N- [% c% U: T! U# w+ T+ t
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 }3 |+ ]2 a& j
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 U2 Q: k- t7 c0 Z! s9 L L- |/ r$ Nresale price in February is evidence that past prices* c, w$ a3 o* G6 e7 c
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% x2 r6 v' e$ U1 n$ P
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( B2 T: k: e' k# N. A1 \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 J5 ?4 c0 T# N& t0 f+ v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: j# K/ o% n* `
leg down over 2009.. F/ x' E) P/ g
. D1 X% n: c5 i* S. r( s* R4 w
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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