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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ a2 p0 Q- O# t5 {& l
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; ]: }& @, s! c! Sboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ l( i& h" V5 J& oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 d! k: C& G1 w; f; E
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( j3 O7 D4 \$ G' i* uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ a% N" W4 T/ R" Bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 G% i# I* [. m t! y, P
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) h# p9 R" q- e( b4 _* @
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous5 I+ W+ m9 h' ~4 Y* O
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* z- E- z0 J6 m5 O2 [% S
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined y+ v1 e+ A4 x! v9 w9 g
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 u4 Y* B, p1 I* a7 i! b# s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! ~, a- [3 e7 Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, w' G" y% {5 B8 U9 p. F( W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! \- B. U5 a+ V" |30,000 new households will form in the province during
# v4 f" b* S, J1 N9 b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* C5 U y; I, y; r* v6 x- T
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" L' b& M+ _2 E+ ?% A* w/ _
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ ~- K4 E7 E+ Q E$ m0 _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' r1 v3 K/ K5 M% U2 T
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 K2 N; `, z: e2 g
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
- m p$ o. I2 G" e9 M2 O6 ]during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging H3 F$ P" ]/ i: r8 ~
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ q+ C# L/ ]7 s- n5 j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. g/ w# N( A6 N9 |& Jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 g$ t$ \" m; h. t1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; O# _" ~6 z+ hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ r+ o$ I2 C& n% l: V. F
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 j/ ]" t# Q* J7 z! Xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) S- A i1 E; i) h2 o, E* v( E( f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 t( n$ k. l9 T/ d# W. U" ?8 Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 q8 t3 e6 M, e. w$ x, ?! w2 s2 mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 g* i4 d* A7 |
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* u1 A, a: W& i+ D% r; |major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, q8 H4 o- a: Y" Yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( |. C! W0 U( s! q, Irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" ~2 Q; U! u; M6 H/ O/ OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, F8 x* u i6 W" t9 [0 I& Kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." y( C! z/ T! _8 A' b6 Q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan' x7 N1 [5 M- `4 {, G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, L+ p2 |7 E1 M, \8 r5 l V3 @relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! }, I; Q9 I' M) l, r
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 n' T# L. L% `% Q. k; z% e& othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: r* ]1 l; G8 ]6 x# s* U( E( ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 s" d$ e% N1 N* fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) J; @2 B1 N' `0 T' w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; {2 v# j4 `/ c o" l
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! s" ]1 C9 }+ n Z' [/ n! i$ Z7 s' ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% h. b' _7 U2 @1 e! s6 X# B. @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 m4 p5 S. n. _/ }0 gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! u$ I6 ]9 V; qleg down over 2009.+ V3 f$ Y: u1 G) Q8 {4 L3 G! @
$ m6 G5 h# z( @ `9 h& q2 V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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