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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 Y4 K3 ]3 z7 O1 d2 XWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 L y- r' a( g) o6 {, Aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 ?6 f2 Y- h5 o2 s% ?) s1 c0 oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- R+ z7 P5 z7 N: r+ k. Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 u. n7 i5 Z, d9 V0 }! p3 K; o
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
" M$ U& t" q+ \8 f; _from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' y$ h+ H- n1 t! `+ q- xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! Q8 B: z" ] _( s8 ~
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# H0 T' O8 M5 f$ s+ v! M3 _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 q3 ]' s' ?1 q/ U9 B$ z4 Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ p. h( K, ~* q; d9 uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# I5 L$ |& a2 J" }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 O2 E3 ^5 r3 k# Y2 F; D& H8 Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: n1 B. Z; c' g8 [; x& ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( n0 U' V9 N$ i8 u& h& F30,000 new households will form in the province during! i( R9 O; X8 O0 D
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. `3 m0 e) c3 |0 D3 f9 A3 IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" }4 ?' n0 \+ y. A
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 i4 R3 k; Y# `' e
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, a, S# @; C' `" g( K: _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 w/ E2 |8 s, l$ I5 y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ W1 r4 k, _# q
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 C3 J, z$ G/ O1 J4 v. `# hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 V) Z1 o- r; `: m: Wclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* {$ q- l. r$ c! D8 ~8 M1 I; bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% U H( N+ `5 O+ D: l1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 i5 n- R9 ]* q: N/ `( e$ X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 A+ y# Y6 a, m W# w" |1 z. W# Lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 K( }0 b6 j% x4 Xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ f( ]& y* f5 Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 M7 m: n' V# o8 ?3 s
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& D; n4 }4 @6 \0 p) X3 erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# O! D2 W: R/ D4 vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 Q) r U/ U- l) S1 z5 Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 W7 I7 ?3 c) J" N6 ?" y2 E9 m6 Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' o: s5 o# H. E$ q8 M3 ^rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" H; s2 P4 `- H8 v- uThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ t( o: m9 A% \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: d+ v9 I% S4 ?
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan | E: D7 x! g; m. Q/ Y& _. a r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, y6 |; M$ P& I3 A8 K! G* Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. z( a8 e. Y5 t6 W2 xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 E) ~, U# g% @ n. m! ]; hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 ?( E) `4 I: m: d; Y/ kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 j6 }% G8 Q1 E9 [7 Q; @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 Q5 k" }# P Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
: u( z4 Y$ _( s% eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 B/ p) y- t3 z4 S" e. M+ Fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* U0 ?% U" H: T( A2 C! M4 N
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; j0 p9 k( i" PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, y# Z6 e9 A( h5 ]- g4 p5 \
leg down over 2009." p, i0 y) G3 f' _
6 m2 ]6 E; h4 m
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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