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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 H" K6 c4 Y. y9 Q
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
) C$ ~7 h, I3 N  n) B* q. W( E9 `: m/ F3 b
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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3 T9 s) i' a5 G# R- D$ D5 @' ~+ Z"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " w; a$ ?" N& W. q% t- I: h' x
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." _, C8 z% D; s0 P5 z7 Q4 V
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.; S) b, q8 |  Z( M0 |! `

& t6 y# b0 C9 x& w0 Q2 r"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.2 z9 W6 R  o( ]2 f( I# K9 T" s

4 f6 C% R& |6 I+ y& eMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 v/ d9 g" J$ w# k3 ?* B' d  z
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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' k& |. p9 f- a) v! m; K[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ! J& q+ S  `* w  R" _# Y0 M
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 C+ i, k$ k; n3 |; |! s很多人都回学校深造去了0 e: `0 H) m+ {
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta) p6 B0 w- R  R( y: _) E2 T
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; X$ E. S0 |4 w
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% a# F0 h" T  ^" Y! D
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 Y0 t+ `! \* e6 k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" g! c+ o2 _( {, d/ S; Y, Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 c% s3 T+ z9 }- u9 }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% Y9 N! ^6 y. y* Bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- @7 B# g( Z! E3 E! @+ S
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) Z. q: R$ o& F) r6 B6 |, E+ K, \; ~7 _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ Z4 }1 n- ^$ zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. O3 x2 R! q: [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ D1 z# ]9 g% ~7 sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 F, X8 W/ G! m0 A, {% Y. syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, N& K& C' M5 L. I/ |: }# q* R% ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- {1 y4 W; @7 ]7 I$ M
30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ [  l) w4 [  P& q3 l& o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 p: D; B1 I% L9 r2 |% `, a2 d! O& R
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' D: N$ H" D1 U
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 U8 T9 _8 u4 L4 {/ B7 _" zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# P5 A% y# t6 t/ t& n
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! j1 [9 O) X2 W. F/ [
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
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sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 Z+ T& U3 }  q. D
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' ^% n) }9 b. ]8 U& pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 t) x: A& m5 |# S0 }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( _$ P& ~8 w! f, a$ b5 c" Ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( M4 d5 V/ j! {5 X# a. x6 r
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( b# x  [! T# R2 Z: Q. O0 itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 F) `5 A7 b, K# {
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) k% l! C5 v; j+ K$ Munsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- v  ~7 k5 u4 A. ~& r/ e5 Z$ rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- c; t! }0 i1 L8 K, ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 j5 x# t9 H. Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& l% r6 }: _! Q( Z+ p! N
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 J/ x  E1 A+ Y8 c% A! m" K, s- K
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# b4 O2 I9 B3 s+ R" T3 [The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' j# b+ J( h: u) e
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 x3 e0 Q, z0 {4 Q* L0 b+ A  TAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
* p) F+ w. y9 g5 r7 hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' O0 E  T6 _7 K& t1 L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 i* a; @5 g7 nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ P0 x* q1 W# a' [0 W9 ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' V4 f& G) P% J- n, n0 p- z- h
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! o. E+ j( z  a
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- o% V' p+ \4 T, w9 o6 g) _$ _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% F: ]/ a* a% K7 I; ~! ^( l% i, Aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 e, N# J# N9 b1 f! M. Z3 V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 p3 t+ g- n3 m- b( r& l
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, G* T# s; \& J4 QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& Q6 c' o& e* ]/ gleg down over 2009., B& a9 \/ T  n
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) C& G4 U9 m: D" _, h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
/ H' U4 F3 b6 \3 t! H( z0 ]翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子0 _; o4 C& A0 [+ r) u

* U2 H- S0 [- Q: j" lhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 f" Z, d3 ^8 N/ H, i( ~' {3 i
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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