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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( L0 [) h8 i. j9 m+ F& h

& ]4 h$ u' u( v- w% t3 CTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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6 a% x/ W  T" b. |# uThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 1 V$ {/ j( P, [6 Q* V$ s; z
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 p7 U1 H- [: I' k9 _% O9 F

8 X2 W- l' i! U& }2 Y  C( v' rNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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0 |' z/ o: I3 o& P  XTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, G" Q. J& V" u: T: q3 W  I5 @Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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8 b6 q! u( r) c$ u2 O, @http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。  m$ T: _1 h, W1 |$ R" a
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 J; P* K; Y+ R% _9 u# |
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了8 B/ I* A; }/ i- M5 q# L6 [' _0 A/ o  a
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
0 ~* a2 {5 l; Q8 @0 m; F7 G% ^8 VWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 I3 _' f% z$ u# u( y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" ?  j* T1 w9 |9 o
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( z+ ~& d  E/ X0 l& v2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, m. J7 A# W$ h* M3 _# w- ]formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 }* ?* G9 ~+ q7 pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 X! d4 a( c4 {
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ R* L$ R  C; F% k- Z1 L3 H3 Tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ S4 n; S9 }/ J% B3 c. A3 R5 j( v$ x8 Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ B* Y  i6 K( C1 M+ L: @3 _
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ I- x4 |& a. ~+ l2 f
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* }2 L: s, m" h! q/ P  c2 |* I* G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ W8 n# n3 y/ I0 p
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 C8 I7 E0 a- @0 Y! ~5 `! y9 nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  [3 {1 |& n3 u1 G1 G: Z
30,000 new households will form in the province during. ]" k  X8 c0 u8 D. j9 [/ v$ }% z, |
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 e: O" P2 n" n- Z. q3 {* D2 bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) B# O4 d0 m2 S& t, {0 l3 L9 c* g0 X
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& Q) E; U9 u) F+ A) d4 y+ `2 Y* W' ^
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% K/ f0 G7 T1 o, W4 E) T8 q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 q" j6 c8 a* @+ Y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! `1 F( N8 d: z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 D' C% G7 m0 Q! n+ t1 r
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories% M1 s2 K5 K' |4 Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. L, U/ F( D' |  jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 q& |# q/ E2 l* w- q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ N' s. j5 n; I, ~6 F- x! L3 \sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" ~4 n1 V# c- w3 K3 @% y9 o8 L) z1 D
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" n5 M8 c/ l+ M& x: ]two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& P$ x" h, M, a3 g) A5 T: F6 N! nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 J. T3 l. a6 @/ \/ v
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, d4 `2 j' q- |$ R2 ~1 N7 O8 ]
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. W; z+ R& D' y) l3 F7 {
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- ^' M# \2 w9 Y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( W# I4 v" K7 f! V' _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! r* g2 d# B9 s& E7 irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; W* s3 Y* J( s2 c! |, I* ^& tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; n/ }1 @. E5 h/ I  Q: M3 W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# Q1 j$ O' p" \9 U. UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. V. m* x0 I" j
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 V! M% [: r" T" I. K
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* m# k* O+ t3 Y/ ~: G
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 v! ]: @! Q' c9 r* zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' ~  F. V- h1 }( P5 o% d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., O9 {9 b' {. `1 B
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average8 q7 O' A' G& h; x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' f5 t7 m' v" g! v; iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 U) s' [. t+ x3 n5 \% |/ Z, d" a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! O, `2 V' }6 {7 D+ y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 t7 N5 R+ b& g, P+ Q- L( I! qAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, B$ y+ G' T5 c4 sleg down over 2009.
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6 C& s; z: G7 O% h2 C( s* G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& P1 K9 V% @1 k6 }3 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( [- e, C! V  I0 s翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子0 J1 o" ?- u2 [  |

5 b8 R3 H6 @) R) q) d! \) Qhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 @5 Q, X% f' a7 ?1 F+ }2 U
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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