 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta) U. }: R3 P, l/ r6 J% t) c/ O, K' T
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. h2 f. @" r# l4 {- W
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# ?9 o0 x" o6 p( h3 Z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* Y8 J6 p+ D4 I6 `: I
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# Y/ t) v8 C7 W7 Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 K' |; m' T# t2 ~5 a: Afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ Z$ L% \5 O O
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, E- o. Z5 Y2 P5 H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! P# _* I1 M# Q9 R3 V6 \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 O% I; v6 o! ?* r H2 uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% `* w% k& D* \% Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ z( g8 K; T# a$ xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, Y- k8 C1 F% ?year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! Z( T L4 R V$ m# V" z0 Ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 s& k- S X) O$ c. a6 L4 G
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 z, k; F; n9 m0 U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 ]4 }/ k0 Q5 f1 a
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ E$ F1 g' e5 Z+ S
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 n: k6 R% K& W0 O5 {* W0 X
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 Q& C/ K- f" P, p! nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 t1 ]/ \( Y8 Y0 a/ r T9 _& a
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& C4 C z* e' P% E
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" Z: X9 T$ s8 C7 n( @0 C6 ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# m) |& }2 k, s6 k* M4 i4 d5 xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: \8 g7 w+ B% e2 L* z! y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 }2 C" u9 s6 P( R I7 Q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! L) p# j! m4 C' {3 ~sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
^" G' K9 A# i, ]+ i" Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; R* k: W( Y8 L' ^# ~& utwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, n) I, A& e( Y a2 M' d- ~ }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% j6 C- C- U- M% @, M7 u3 @' @0 vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 k! O0 O7 ?8 y8 p+ L% K) ^recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the i) X- P8 Y- S( W( S9 `: b
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 H% Q$ o ~# C6 f# S/ x: h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ E4 _: n$ `2 {( Z: Q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 g# A; A' }5 r5 j9 a9 _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 U+ R$ _6 c8 K
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 J" V- I4 I6 o0 ?, I7 K# ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic. p) j2 C3 m. u5 A A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( ]/ B: g& P @, Z2 V2 `2 ]2 V3 thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 F4 y, N2 z* R: P7 @: K W
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ x0 I7 N4 a2 Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even& e, C9 Z/ ^& E
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 U) l9 I' S% H) T3 U ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ m' p4 E f& I$ P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 G9 h+ [# H" z; d
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 l- u8 p4 _; E0 sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# R: r: @ y& q3 |8 C7 E+ E. y/ Z2 fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 d$ x( O7 Q5 u3 H/ Jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* o6 f& ?8 O9 m5 ] _+ E$ G1 YAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# j4 K+ E3 U) [' Oleg down over 2009.
, X% f2 i2 C2 U6 E1 W W; W/ `1 n; @9 \& ?! T0 ^
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|