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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( p% O1 [, a9 Z# H7 v8 P7 K" Z

$ b- x/ L, q. e4 q+ k5 ~8 C0 H+ UTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. " x& [7 B& X  H' w: n

6 i1 q$ l$ E, u8 e6 a$ m/ i- [The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % V; W* Y$ R6 z+ {1 c8 p' Y

7 t7 J, |8 a5 i( U( w4 u"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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, g. s6 i, R" y6 N7 B0 RTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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% s3 d/ h: ?  m5 v3 {0 P4 J. x"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 0 H, w2 W0 g( H7 Z, W2 z0 K* {
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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. K2 N( ?$ J5 e7 xhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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' h! B4 f" u: eTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, U5 j4 l, f4 E0 ~

2 Y0 B3 D7 _5 w  ?  {- z. y7 M[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. C) Q& D2 m, O& O1 S; h" v! `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。' s6 L6 G# {& l4 K$ r* d" _# P

$ n2 X4 j* |" n8 I[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 K3 M7 F  ]. T, j( G1 N4 p) ^0 x
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了; ?7 d- _4 [: S
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta8 A8 f1 T% K3 v: m, P/ Z- w1 G
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ ~* c9 S# h" S+ p1 |( v( {" k
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  I7 D2 M. ~4 p& F" m
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. l/ w( I5 i. u: b/ ]2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# p# f/ x; [7 W& Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 ?0 Q9 R  M2 m5 K: e  f! g
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 `( s2 G6 y% o* ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ M* S# B; T/ o& F9 Q# ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# J, t+ f9 V7 Y: l0 npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* @2 `6 _/ j: o4 j9 A& W# Oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 X7 a2 T/ v7 o9 ^/ I, P' p
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 G5 C; \8 C" @& ^6 K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  h+ g2 u; d1 S% _8 U, ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ e; o! R2 C# E2 _; k* l
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ U% N8 M7 D$ S" S30,000 new households will form in the province during2 e, Y) N! q2 V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 q( i4 g  f* r0 i' ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ k2 E# a/ v& k3 Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: v4 r3 j! ~3 p+ b9 m" G2 V8 [; z8 [
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 s( J8 ^  c" x
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. B7 N% f* k, N; m, T0 `+ {$ q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 x; @  c' I# L) d7 n' dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 r0 j* A" K6 o6 Q* Z, _+ Q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 r5 L) j& n" S+ l; p0 b6 Dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 t/ d( {. x: q$ k& C/ ^2 v/ k! A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 H4 d# @/ k: K, F- {; k1 [! f
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
  `# v8 w! c; Q9 M1 B* ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 n9 ?0 o5 V$ ~: `% X! L
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ T& O  ]4 g8 Q2 P1 U  {$ U# ~) l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 O' J- D( }6 e4 H2 E' r5 t/ c
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) S* Q4 ~, \! ~$ u7 P+ x. Tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 S) v1 y4 ?+ d2 j  g) i7 E% lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 `! K2 G2 S! V0 t8 q% n. F% ^
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! o' X& v) M  m) u. Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 B( X# L1 {8 N0 i9 x* `. \of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; T* ?' Y1 o, @! [1 h3 |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; ]* [# R* ?% S, rThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) W* ?" G& V, P6 p, i. tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.( J, B7 J. F. h" Z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 ?: Q# Y4 n  Z' ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 D3 b' ]" E3 _6 v- ~& S* [/ Z0 Zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 N$ |8 m: g8 G9 W0 \
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ t1 U, Z, j4 ^* P6 R  V' V$ w5 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 F% t+ x4 @2 l2 [( i
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 ^+ `; }" K# h( }, h- A5 L
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* ]. v7 P; k2 ~. K/ Y; [2 kresale price in February is evidence that past prices& X5 y9 ]3 @5 u* }0 f+ c9 `' p1 r
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! Z" O. F# T/ C" O. e3 d* S
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 t' Y3 a9 ~4 O7 [$ {deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% R1 x9 E9 C; u0 }5 }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 _' V: T% m& g5 [* b, y# j7 J5 e/ G
leg down over 2009.& n; X; ?2 K$ n" W
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. V; F5 {5 _6 k# a2 b+ w- @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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' O* F4 k. Z3 s! y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. / K% c* O. y* u+ p  k$ y/ W
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments+ a+ r! `% U1 U' j4 Y
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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