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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 g  x7 b4 x- g2 I* Z9 S, K
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; ?; X2 u6 k  y

' [  N9 b3 a* R" LTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.4 C) T; l& Z' c2 `6 U  t
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.8 p+ u; A6 s; r$ W; `
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & e) v# J6 G7 b8 A2 {
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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& L' g$ z! R) v, a8 ]1 aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 P! L1 ]! Y/ f! b8 u/ k: d( G 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 : x8 x' Y( N5 u
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了  q3 {5 f3 o, v  e
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 F  z& k) T: q2 N) s6 Z7 x
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ a& }. E" W9 k/ S; b2 G+ X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! @1 v# ^6 r: t( p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- S8 o" F# I4 B& O
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( o" h5 a3 }! Y  B8 s
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( u/ H/ J; T3 o- o
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ }2 Q- p8 Z$ {$ pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* W4 B! B! l1 x' omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# W) y! o) b. x, a+ U+ f! F  tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" b8 h( V8 v' {* Z! jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 A& V1 b; x# J2 z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 B5 [+ M4 \/ {) p3 ]5 H. q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 g, b* W3 w! Y. W' g; P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" D8 ^/ y( j! o- V& u8 X' F$ Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 r: W# F4 m7 ^% q+ T/ Q8 L, Q( N30,000 new households will form in the province during
* l9 P7 j9 I  N$ D6 w3 D+ ]+ w2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. O& g" k4 @$ s& I7 ?
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' ?; p5 W9 }$ S6 N' r: b
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 w  _7 F& D, m4 A& Z& Aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ h# _6 K# S: U1 thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, i( k1 S" Z3 c8 \4 H+ thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 B- v2 @; a) `9 ?, S% q1 A
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ s5 K0 B) J4 B
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, C; A( D7 P5 \, K% ^+ c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 B; T1 }9 r4 H1 [: j2 y/ K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 |7 v2 Q6 V. h! c4 M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& Q7 {% X0 z# h' L  L1 U/ msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 w7 k) C' N/ j0 o+ Y9 V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 q) L3 }/ L) S- Y1 h8 d; G. \, m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; E( w% R$ f3 M+ L* m5 h3 m( t7 [; yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 U  w( V( N! F7 \
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ C, Y$ H% {* N& i5 brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the  O% V7 z6 ^& Q( s/ }3 l4 l
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" q+ t4 z4 N& M3 f3 ]7 N
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* O, ^3 z3 C+ O( I. s1 K
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  o3 w- f- e4 w3 I8 trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 v7 ?8 `2 D! _- \" l" G
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( ~; S- o. ]' H, ]$ b$ {8 v
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: f9 x- k" @' o: e9 S
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan6 s* C# Q* s# e5 T7 O' s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) n* m; Y6 E2 J$ N9 H# Q: yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 T4 l& h7 A" [, x+ k% o5 tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. g# W4 a6 h: [7 z# y, mthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 G- J+ ^% F' u4 f/ C# K1 p
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) G( B" o5 b+ U4 }4 @0 Z: CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 k* N6 G" s( ]2 Q9 Gresale price in February is evidence that past prices7 z2 Q  T1 u3 i% X9 X9 C; u
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) R6 q  l7 H) v6 e! \/ H8 g
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 |% q* I4 W' x4 P* P
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- t2 Z( Z- ?5 c( ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%5 I! T1 S7 G8 Y5 ~9 Z% W
leg down over 2009.5 ~, X' z) l3 O. ?

2 Q* z; z' y( L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 D- x0 U1 t: J/ O9 F% r7 h$ V0 k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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( [8 N4 ^" M. ]9 }" }, E- |& ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, B& B# P; k3 j! R/ H6 P翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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