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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- x% K5 `% a; r0 G
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" D' P; T6 q/ v+ E& |; l3 N* L# {boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' u3 I/ Z9 P$ C* G# H. I6 \. N
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; j# b' V( I; Z; w/ H5 U8 O: v
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* x( x/ _& i8 W5 D: v5 ?! G; Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: p9 k% O' V" @7 B- J: A: g. }, g
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ r# J# l- b0 N. Z4 b- _2 Y- Cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, X! D* r, q9 [3 g% _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. {, r. ]* s( Y6 R/ l) ]2 G
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 f' K7 n+ R9 x: n- |$ H! @2 @7 @
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ I( S# p* M7 ~
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ B9 w6 w& N+ K# m6 F n; q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 V, A6 k b% u% h D- W& b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! u0 O- V2 p3 {4 f9 R. L) U8 R
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 V6 I, P, }; o, @( \+ _# x
30,000 new households will form in the province during; I G5 J( g: d/ \: C1 O+ a# u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) D! Y7 Y! M8 e0 L' o4 S9 IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' X9 F- D' Z" {0 z, ]
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( `6 G- {1 g0 @* R# m5 u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 a% n! f, Z( f1 l( z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' Y, m! w- [9 S+ i; D/ b2 f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 y/ |( J) Q! b7 Z$ d
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- w, r ?/ _ c# g; I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 W- B( C2 A8 H) l: v6 ~0 yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! R" b* }* i; ~( J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- U, K; u4 n( \+ h1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, A' Z9 j R& I ]8 V/ }
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 e! x% R! q) y0 r; F6 W+ M1 Bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in o' `6 k! _5 A; b
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 u7 N$ T( D& v6 V
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 o* V( q+ \! g. wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
K/ c& Q2 \. Grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% s3 b/ F6 M$ V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s H7 G9 N: ~ S6 G# I
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 ~4 U/ Z8 K: B' Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 J' a5 ~2 G* S" ]3 W" B: B( @rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 {, e+ F& ?, b# ^The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 e# {- a6 l2 f/ V" Q7 Z# \0 qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 D" Y5 ^& i3 ?0 n# D9 Z1 `
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 E+ K5 Y. Y' y+ _housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 p8 ~; ?7 o- B
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 U' u# t \4 l- r
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 D* L7 S; n2 j7 o3 t0 [+ uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; R; O" Q/ R( A9 E) W7 x
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% g. b- s8 r1 v
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 G2 H' F$ B5 M% p+ presale price in February is evidence that past prices1 g! ^ ?6 A) M2 \& ?6 c
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: V& B0 l6 Z( F6 C* y7 q1 x" N0 Chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: E9 r+ K8 b) F/ ? ~$ z+ U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% l6 N3 q* a* a) U; H$ cAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* X E4 ^4 r, {* X+ y5 Z- }. mleg down over 2009. [8 Y# f! R+ O4 I$ O( [
8 e6 q& r8 P' N- ]& ~ \
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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