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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" U1 W) Z: {+ t7 UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: O' u; C5 H$ H* K1 y- s
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 E$ Z( W: q7 v" U7 Q0 J6 N$ P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 P0 m: r# x# f% ?
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) E+ G) y0 C. `formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& ~; p( w, f$ D; H+ I3 {# M( I
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," F5 ~" v( k/ v$ q4 d, S; h
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 [% Z/ e; ]& V: |1 A6 r2 i) [may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, }# C! D9 M* `8 C6 d4 npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, n; ]$ N$ J) p4 M# u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 K! g* t' G- {& D0 o! _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 e& q* l( F! R9 b; rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 \5 K+ M6 ]4 ~+ n- y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" s1 g0 d) G7 }% D" |; fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
H* K+ n5 e. A9 E# M2 t30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 t, }1 L8 s+ v. Y7 o. a, z% Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ P1 n. g0 a% h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 F0 H+ {: I- C6 I! b) Vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% E1 z& i1 {/ L' r. X& g8 I
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 m4 N5 O5 {4 s" C5 w. G
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 i8 `( ?1 |! ?7 qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( }9 ^4 P6 R4 P: ~
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. o4 K A# |' x/ Z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; }/ k7 Q% z4 e6 f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 n5 w% r' S9 Y1 D$ r' Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 r8 m7 K B9 x1 n: Q4 v
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& U4 N1 o# T/ P6 C X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 G9 T# b$ a* }# o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 x/ `# L& I* K9 [" U2 g) Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: N1 s7 K2 o& C. u' funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! V- Z+ M! Z H$ W' B$ Y9 p9 E8 ?
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! F# U y1 s- A. M" e% Q# ~. K5 precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 L: n% {3 _4 E, l
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 {$ G7 O9 J( T! u3 F' Bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories R* V6 I: a) ~, Q* N
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. f v0 Q n+ {, w3 V% x% H
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, w/ J1 e* }, H2 G) t4 J3 iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. N) [. j1 n. M: Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ Q" J. u6 L- _1 X, |) F
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- i- L; C) k c$ rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 }( _& y7 l/ S# J- E
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" U, t8 L; S1 w; c. I! l3 |2 Tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 ]- ]7 x' ?, U, m3 ^' f7 e
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& Q5 W* S, J1 @" p4 E8 o: Con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 B+ A8 n# n1 U, ~% j' Z" n! b6 j
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* T$ o( p& \4 Z" M9 P& m7 _2 F$ ~( e
resale price in February is evidence that past prices9 f) A4 `: E5 t
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' d/ p$ T4 m# \$ l$ E+ l$ chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& H/ T" E |$ J0 p$ K E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 q& k$ W( L- `4 \; P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) |! V; _, y2 i$ f2 R, Aleg down over 2009.6 n3 \% g( [% ~& |+ o
- {: y/ ?) d3 n& k* W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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