埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2601|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 u% L3 s& q( `6 `

9 C( M& }! X6 Z7 Q4 O' GTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
* u& \& T! [9 g$ l: w
+ ]; e* J+ X9 GThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 1 J0 c+ u$ G8 z4 c/ ~' y' S

' X: S5 O2 h0 A# F. Y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
% k& e/ I3 ?1 q+ P! g1 d1 a
4 i, \5 J! W# g: _' JNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
: S) U% s/ P) l+ D, m0 @: T3 R% o
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
0 ^+ u8 U8 ]$ V# b  f! G% ]5 Z/ T, N3 N, ^+ z7 Z6 O# x8 A* h
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 0 [; G: \+ M; Z8 Z8 L+ S

) p! f& \+ o; x6 E; f/ cTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; h. D5 S1 k* U
2 ?8 d9 ~4 f& j) I- w9 Z
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
7 u/ A" V2 |3 M2 x$ X1 M0 [# r
3 U, i  ?# t8 V, e8 N4 T- L) yhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
7 m$ f' w% l$ q$ i

0 t6 B" |: n3 q3 t2 RTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
  c3 D0 E) u7 L* z: @, G) l9 M0 q
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, b& _  p* H$ M. V% D+ M4 e, [ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, k- ^0 y& T  L# K. Z( [3 W) `  U
0 m' q. p  K( A7 J
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 e* Y* k& F. H  {6 y" L
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
' Z7 f3 z' D" @' a
很多人都回学校深造去了# }! O' U2 h  Y  x; ?3 M3 J* Q
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta  ]+ a$ T+ m" `
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ S. v5 d/ d4 C4 b/ a
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ s6 u0 \5 ~1 E, |
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 _- O# Y8 l* n- ?' C; s# m* s, D
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- j1 v* I1 ?2 _9 {, T% \6 Z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: Q- c5 t8 G8 yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. n+ E/ _5 R( {! g; Z& ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% ~# |* c: f. N4 I' I1 I; lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ ?% U* |  b/ ~6 Z9 M# H  j, E
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. [- l7 {+ q  g7 Z0 B5 I8 e
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( ~' ]* v, A6 `
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 [0 H7 [- t! O3 Y! hprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 I8 R8 ]& ?  G' s% Oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: t8 j0 Z# r3 _6 l5 R& A9 {homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 A8 y) @3 Z" B% D3 |$ @
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 D; @" V5 I( t! X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ ^' v% E: _, [Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 s) x  C+ [" L5 I
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 U7 \  z' y( k+ E9 T' F8 z4 E6 [during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 l$ C% P# Z8 }! ^! c- _& fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* T) @! v) C& y3 Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 S9 G' P% t6 X! g  T! d" D
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 u7 K5 b) J, S! i4 w# N
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: {4 `8 G2 h3 X& V* Aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) t1 j; a) ~2 j# D$ f7 ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 ^1 f( q. k, P# s$ P! A1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, P: v) A3 [: D
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, `: }; o% S3 h" k1 B
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, S6 z% ^! s( R4 j* Q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 C2 A& A2 \( ]% X$ c( W7 D& a
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, `# l& J7 s& a  J2 K
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; b( J, r) Z5 [8 z( }1 o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# R! z) i0 j9 R; {5 s; Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' H+ d. {  c* \, j5 ?( l" Emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& N% z' H- r# j8 T# w1 c0 C
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled! r9 c. @/ {( x1 `8 Z- x3 E
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& J9 C- {$ \$ t' [' m
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 n, P) {" [: s& K+ c5 w0 Jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. F+ Y2 j5 Y; w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
% d+ f$ V. a8 f4 d. c4 X7 bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 u6 J2 n) E, Q5 yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 U8 r+ b+ _" v  A, Z! j  Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' a) D) R9 v$ q/ @1 V- ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( E# l0 o6 n: v; r" B* v8 lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 e3 z) G6 E! M8 U) i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 l( }+ A8 D- L; a: @# p+ r" F) Z! N5 {resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. s1 E8 N1 Q0 X. A' Y* t$ Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 I7 g! `. i! {# y: \* M! khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" F( u& e+ ^1 p; mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  y8 n7 Z  h! m0 D0 eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 t/ y  @9 |7 D9 `* w5 T% vleg down over 2009.
* ^/ f1 H8 i' p7 ?9 m2 |. b0 t" g7 H5 h: s* [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: l% ]5 u3 N' M& vAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

* {  y9 y) F1 d& W9 I( Q  R( B9 ^2 _" U" ?& V, ?% a5 b) }0 g. Y& N  x$ \
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 6 I' v7 D. a) r' j
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
! {& |) l+ i4 G8 v' e  f* n; R" w6 T/ O3 |4 t
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments0 n- l3 Z" W# C
; f* v0 g$ j9 d: ?, H7 \8 Z; h3 x
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-5 15:48 , Processed in 0.104862 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表