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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.' c( R# i; ~2 v+ l" _4 S
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / x5 U9 E( }. e* j
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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9 {' y3 r3 o0 c  z. M. H0 H"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. / T$ J" D! u- o0 U; o! @

6 ]  o, q% K% l( E  u$ QNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ \$ g# ?) k+ C; Q3 Z3 {
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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" e! y8 \8 M6 \& N: N7 |8 ]TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.9 N* U: N9 ]2 a

: x6 K; G" _' C1 Z- A6 qMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 C6 F0 S# T  G# O- m- d3 P* p2 ~
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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5 ^  F, T+ i# m' O5 j0 G/ CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- I6 E7 t8 ^9 j' d$ @$ Y% W
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。* s# w! T0 E" D* ]3 t( a9 b* x5 K6 p
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。1 f$ `9 }8 Z4 J( d8 q4 \, ?" t0 |. e6 [2 q% f

( }, {: H4 K- r[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 q' b. E& ?& w  g& m2 d
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. w1 c: G" g: @! u; m很多人都回学校深造去了
$ N6 Y/ D2 e/ a/ N5 W: H嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ V9 ~- a1 a. [
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 P& R7 l0 h6 J. {8 @" K/ v5 G1 ~3 j
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! s" h/ G) ^( |% |
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( _9 |" D3 j  H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; U* B7 P! }- i( i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ c5 y- ^# M! h* S' v2 ]" V% t! nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ c$ p  e" Z9 S2 f* Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ f9 o, N% ~( ?9 o3 A% kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 e- \, M& P" W' t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 u: h. [; B0 f
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ o! v+ N4 s. B1 G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 R+ l3 b  ~  m0 n5 f. [  z: H* P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 r+ a) k: ~- d! }! A7 Y- j0 [
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, j, G8 B6 j$ d$ a( L: p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ w! ~- a3 l4 P1 Q' c  G* F30,000 new households will form in the province during2 X4 ]5 z1 `( o. M4 b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 x; i0 Q# z% p5 o: N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 l8 W/ F* u7 E4 }2 x) v
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ C6 ?0 V/ Z* U& P* z* e$ R" G2 c
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& {% E3 ^! q& b6 A, l7 `2 x% c. l% Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 `: I8 P: e* m' \0 s8 G
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
  B2 V. g$ `5 i5 b- bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- E- W, ?) F; F6 o# ~$ i( ]; Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 N# F& n+ p  y' h3 p- Y+ @5 t/ e. Kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 V! Q. d* n& p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" b" X# d, ~6 Y  |4 H7 _
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
) o" y: @& u) T+ q3 S& Psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 I/ ^, R% B6 e  ~
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  X# x3 }# K5 W
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! [2 f/ W- g' a- X
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- B) @. b/ g- ^+ U1 k6 p* j$ I# p1 e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 H+ z6 u. _# S7 R- u; c3 N
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& D3 N5 S5 e! _% q( z" M" u0 gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. l. T8 b! X* R$ C6 o$ ~2 imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ ]2 [+ E2 ?" wof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& F2 V( J4 X9 d! G- ?' }$ n) Vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 C- a" c6 i+ h2 i4 S" M
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- [# }: t) o2 [0 b" K5 _
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& N) E4 z4 p1 @! V* E' x: x, eAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan% `7 G$ G9 L0 H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ Y0 U! e- m; A$ a7 n6 [; z, Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 K: J4 m# o' i2 I6 X, |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even& [% V: M1 e0 R
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% j0 b& k3 U% K, j6 F* @1 |) a
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 Y$ R. ?, ]( e6 `1 T8 \; C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 m: ~, M0 R" b9 E+ d% @: J) S" L
resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 o: G/ W1 o$ v) ?  |
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# `8 b7 f) u$ e/ b
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# {6 N4 `- A$ ?5 B3 |
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 ^$ h9 r0 H- m; h& P: J) {Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  H4 k/ D) h1 g$ i: o' xleg down over 2009./ b  g# j7 Z" Z4 K8 I0 t* m1 U

# n4 q& ]: b5 X: e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- A2 W' _/ K; {. H  Y* }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 B9 U  j. f( t* l& i
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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