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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 ]# ?7 m* C) x: P. ^- a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) n. e; k3 ~) @: V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 M8 R# i4 \8 G/ v1 z2 }9 S0 Q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 Q$ I& g6 _8 G! T5 M" h v$ y8 ~2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 ^2 [1 l- N# ` x' r$ c5 P: P3 uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" t. C3 x, h# x" A
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: j$ k9 A7 P. U: u: Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# B C% Y( j5 k% ^6 r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! L7 d; J( j2 g. h+ W. b" A
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 T& K" q) J& V: ~6 M! C/ a% Yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# H$ \9 \3 A0 d4 z3 K+ oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; q. z) r* ^& i- w
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 x# f9 z! t" _0 u) U5 {8 |( @' A" yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. @& b* B9 }8 W7 m0 x/ jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* D' j1 h9 h5 c4 b6 S
30,000 new households will form in the province during
. J f" w: @- s* F6 F2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 _6 d; C* f' J+ o- c0 bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) J) }" o* x# V- C+ Z6 Bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- j: u, }0 {# ^during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! n% x+ ^& K0 Q1 qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 p$ c; d# `3 u& E% ^: m8 O" c8 B
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. Y! E. U$ N- M6 }during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging3 G) A7 U) `( Z- ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ J! O' \4 x# J4 O6 \; hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 j2 A; |$ x! R2 Q9 Y4 \% m9 x
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ ~* x) @. A0 [" }. H0 v
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" `/ C+ W& J" N. E; D, O) E
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ V- N' E$ h3 a: x& V& \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. d9 I0 w+ ~* ?6 E
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( z5 R' z. \+ a; o8 _unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' R4 K: W$ X; x, u. U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 Q! q8 A/ q- n* o+ D& mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 |. J+ a' t1 ?& `1 G6 C, vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" a4 T0 D4 ^% Vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# c6 X. }+ ~; S6 S9 a$ m
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled% h3 Q" A& g/ U
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 s1 ?' _! H7 ?! c: t$ R. DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 }# r+ G* O: ?3 @, M7 @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: j+ f2 w+ Y7 |, G! YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan3 T7 X, o ? _+ s: v7 J
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: M s2 W% c% s( f6 B( L0 a
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( t2 H+ ]6 E: |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, g6 f* y9 P8 M& Qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) j) r8 w/ d4 `$ U: ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 w% a# D8 P7 t" i3 h( }3 Q" t
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
l6 Y @0 t, A, W3 Bresale price in February is evidence that past prices( w+ O3 c& M: U. d* x
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) ]( W& E- h7 T7 {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 o$ O# F7 O# M) z6 q* ?deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 x+ f1 a6 R8 \; ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 D6 a$ E, _: G: Z
leg down over 2009.3 q8 e( d9 f' n% `3 s- Y- g
. K& L. U- J/ h% D/ G+ c
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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