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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.9 |$ q+ L% e" K

' ]& Z2 e% a; J8 X$ H$ fTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ C% x* j* z* d4 k( q  i

/ O1 p3 x7 A* A7 i6 fThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' q. C" J2 y% t% K8 O0 p

  a# [& R( H# ^' y; cNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) s! m, U1 p, i. I# y! u7 S0 C
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 [; g( }5 f( }- t

; n: |7 ?; x" l3 {) _"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." i/ A) [+ u% Q' I9 j( z# O6 E

" p+ v, M5 j9 W4 M. {; J: j. k( CMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & W, F+ a6 X5 \0 S  s$ Y

  a/ ?% Y8 J7 w( {) O: i6 Y# ]; Fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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  [. m# J( O4 N0 V7 Y: NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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5 M3 N% O0 o+ f- Q. c2 c; @[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" N; Q, D( d% L& ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- z7 U& r. b3 j[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
; _/ c4 S8 W% E9 Y. Y) ?. A  R$ e跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
& _( O. T& V6 i嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta1 ~3 r0 D, L/ N5 j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' d( g7 a- d) W7 d  p) u1 q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- l5 A- Q6 `  z1 Y+ F5 {are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; I7 I3 _' J1 c% s7 m
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 x% `) E- w, ~3 g8 ?formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided+ Y* f# A! e" i$ @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 ^9 n, g" ]  u/ y# m5 t+ ?5 @the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 H, k( z) q' O- S1 B. [
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* f7 J) ]: g! N6 B9 X1 c4 ?pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, p$ ?8 ^" q" A, v0 l
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ J% D5 ]0 ]" ?
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& t( u6 @$ p* x7 q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, m3 v% p. ^- g6 k8 c' H: V$ lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 ]" N% S) R$ z6 @- |& {* [( |homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ u5 U" q' K7 k  {) x
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: @5 x5 h2 n% H9 I+ f* S, W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 @8 l& F! U3 N# n5 G! x9 oEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s7 F2 r) I  n! u3 m: b
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 c/ r# s6 P; R$ X1 y: x
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 p% n, k  n  E4 v* U1 I2 V, i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 z% S5 S; T0 L
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; U$ Q5 z9 [! q! l, E3 R
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 f! e* i, K' f& s3 _0 M8 }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- e8 n; s  Q& |4 h% `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% x+ g5 X, r8 P5 _: ?excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- f% M& G2 Y: k0 s2 q, {' G3 E1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 R$ \1 [/ M# a$ n% A7 q; ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 |. ~: ?2 W% g( s' Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 a0 q6 S7 Z$ r, Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& y+ c! X/ o$ j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 L* L7 ]& ^. J& u# f8 ]. w0 H, @# uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: C$ ?1 s% k+ n
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
3 k" f* H+ G3 D- k( g3 ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 n. T9 O+ N" s* N: A3 ?major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 q$ [- U8 q: _& Z' U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ x# }/ I) \' M3 O. X' f
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ q% |8 \$ @+ x! e& g" r, i
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  [& H( @# d7 M0 Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: Q" ~4 j" Q$ z: Z4 v! C7 |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" |. m" [1 o( {) F: `housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 K8 V! k/ a0 \  Q# v9 Vrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' a# Z$ N8 T7 W, xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& R) W: u6 U3 K  ^% Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, G- K" X- t4 q& p1 _
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! x0 ^/ \. I  G8 j# y: O2 ?: ]& sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 c; H" [2 B* t4 X. l4 P* x9 Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices5 h# c* S0 e* P6 A% E3 a% [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) h  L$ F3 X! {! D: e& b2 Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# g$ I; Z1 U: ]1 ?3 z. L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ [9 t7 d: T, H, ?; h( {9 k, G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' T% |- k/ m+ f
leg down over 2009.
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- u! Y# l) N8 P  `  w; c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 }( E6 R1 a- S4 RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. & w: |4 @, U2 o" {% \6 G& H
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子$ r9 v/ B8 j) l4 E& h( L
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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