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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 s* L4 E; {8 C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ N, Z" o% D8 K) C4 u& s) W! j: G
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 _* z6 t2 L' E# D, `* [5 q+ R4 uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& K% i5 |4 D9 \5 c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! z: h3 w w, h# C! |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 @$ ^, j3 m/ g8 v# G; c) I, ?
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 x* ^) T7 ~0 o& [% ]% ~the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 R/ n9 M% r1 S" }* X) cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
P" Z2 q* O* V; u* o5 mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed$ R9 d7 L0 S1 V3 r6 b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined) p% R" `9 Q9 L9 y% C. D! p& T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& Q2 _/ Y, ?* v" Zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* w( m* G1 X2 `" ?7 R- Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- k) m2 W/ n0 M; R! h9 hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, E4 L# D4 m! I' H& u$ m1 x30,000 new households will form in the province during \: a* g" w, Z2 {1 L# }& h. \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 X6 @- M' ], O4 cEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( u+ P2 R: m# R! u; z) K. Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. C& q5 t3 V+ c" `) `- Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ A* Y/ J6 u( b! U/ [5 S
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% H$ l: x2 S! ]: \& _* Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" P# M" S0 Y1 H! g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ D! c5 v! T; P- A) t* I6 C: Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' F7 q- i1 S$ c; J. J5 J7 L5 cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 p) V" |4 Y r, F5 N0 V% `excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 s7 Q$ r9 x3 d9 H+ v
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& w$ m& V4 ~: X4 S: q+ W0 Bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ Q6 C, u+ T0 k/ f; D& R- m
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 g" `5 ~$ G0 [( x+ O* u1 U' ~! ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" U0 y$ |% M* s ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 H# q9 N7 {" h, s F5 Kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 o" t M* G3 Z( {6 C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- j, G* B6 |! f4 }$ A0 ]( `
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 z/ @ X# p4 b3 ?' I2 {1 i' ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- m1 i9 }- O+ x* y- Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 y. S( z% ^# F9 }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 m9 W. E! e& Y; ]. k( r! c a) V& [The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ p1 P* U! w# j; L# w- U
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, J0 k, B% v( [$ [! g4 ~3 M9 dAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; O* N2 `7 s, q* k) T4 o! z" R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 M! I) F5 t" g4 u7 F6 V& T% r5 t
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ K0 d$ i: k! {: }# ?prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 S, ?, k. v& C- c5 E% I
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 B- |4 l7 D( J/ @- j4 d+ A5 Jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- q, ]9 S! w4 `$ x$ ?1 g4 Y- aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 X0 G9 r) {+ g
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, X6 H- U9 S2 z% ^
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ n, |" q8 r& r k3 t ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, F$ A4 s6 ~9 a7 M5 ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 u# R) E( i/ ~9 }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. c3 v( N7 Q+ y" x1 K% h' V5 ]leg down over 2009.9 g& A) B! l# u9 E. |
6 O0 t9 `: o5 ? W9 u1 e/ y7 A. ]) k& L
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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