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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
& h2 R1 v3 o6 `Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: h) d Z# m) K5 Tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 V: W$ G1 k9 }$ ]( r4 E$ s4 Lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ W. n3 R! n4 P/ `' z8 `
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ J, B+ Y% Z# k" g0 D3 d7 Mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, P3 Q% X0 T Y3 M6 A* s
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) c3 D1 o% _# y7 ~* Kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 X w+ u9 b; Y+ l7 l& n
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, j1 t0 k' d1 K- ?& A0 T, mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 a- Q+ D7 }# N2 Sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; K7 D$ m! j5 u$ \( A% tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" q G4 O5 F3 y: s- Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) l" k- b) D# \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ O" H; F" p" r6 L& Hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 F( \$ N& J _; c
30,000 new households will form in the province during* d+ H% w( W7 r; z6 c/ @9 b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: T. G7 G+ |. W! F0 U/ `/ lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s. z" Z9 y0 f) H& c
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 _; |9 \. M! z( u, Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, G5 P" w0 [# O6 z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& X# J0 }% {/ b0 }% |' Ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 n d2 z9 M* {- q& M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# c! N1 H; T7 z, \ {5 M- L
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 M/ A2 Z `3 R* F* ?& q. M" Q- Pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* C' s L) I$ R6 q( L
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% Y0 Z6 O3 g3 F9 h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: g+ n7 t' B( B0 a; U" ?9 Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# B+ b6 H! @' t3 ~! nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& ?, H8 @ n( L8 d
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! u& R) Q% _7 Y' N7 nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 ^* _- n0 w, O. o8 v: c2 d! lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 j9 ^. k* V9 `( {' B
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. m. |) s9 [* V) Y" G' W
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) t2 Z/ ], R F8 e# f
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: I/ T! }% Z9 f0 K7 `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 X, x( h3 a) t* J$ o' }
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% |8 @4 c# i1 c! ^, |1 CThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! i3 j) i" r+ C& q$ N. Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: H9 N# M! \3 s( p- t: V' T4 E
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan: |; f0 T) e; K
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 [! Y, D1 ]' u; h& `' n$ frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 D7 T' Z9 |/ `! u% xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' @) x% x6 y6 H/ |( _6 @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- e; c6 z- J1 E+ Qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. k6 c) M( r% r, d7 n t
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 @# }0 r3 ]6 E8 x( V
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, I7 {3 _- }! B7 F( M
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% I# n$ d! p, ~0 x3 s+ ] w, x0 ^' khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( M8 L* M( W i4 ]1 z J0 Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
}/ B* h% t* q3 LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- c/ j7 T% u2 Cleg down over 2009.
! c+ m+ J4 P% P R2 s/ x' ~/ w2 M' g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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