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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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) P9 Y5 }* f6 y( A' R6 qTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 U+ V9 P4 c. v, i
/ @$ I$ ~! E: G1 J6 j
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 2 _- ?3 N2 Y; X: X* e

* m3 Z. Y9 a0 }4 t"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 k/ P$ F& p( ?- _6 k
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 Z3 u$ S" g2 a) s# Q5 |) c
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.! c; ?2 H' m- l
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
+ p6 q+ e$ ~% U6 n1 Q( W" Z
& @) W+ }; f5 W8 h6 \; NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
: C7 v3 e3 u0 h. p- @, X

. l. w, t7 R, |. }+ U8 V, N: ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: s8 N9 k9 Q  {3 N% _* D; H
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. y9 H2 {' [& v3 D

3 l* \, z6 Q3 \, J$ m[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
3 L+ |" Z1 S3 B. U1 n跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ v1 r" u3 k$ G很多人都回学校深造去了
2 w; _- u( n; h% v: ]/ v嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( i7 C9 o+ I, K" ^) x: t+ J/ h
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) ]" \$ T1 p6 o: p  a5 x% a- Zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# g- @$ C; p) c8 E6 \7 s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- B# S2 @3 c) ?" l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 h+ G, y' V3 |! _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided5 s7 j$ z- G  D
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. ], a: q/ X# K% g  B& N0 ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 p  k( G. _& x7 V$ gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- b5 r# n! K# X4 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 W% W, h: u. f+ G' u- ]/ b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 S# s1 Z4 Q- U/ qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ m7 |6 e& [' f) Hprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 s- E7 p5 a6 O' L( vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; T, t" S( m7 M) r1 b+ fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: U7 P" ?1 j0 n2 x$ T7 H6 x. c
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 e- |4 ^& ^% P* L$ a' |3 h) l' B2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 F( A5 U3 Z) d  T
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 G- |& g- O$ v$ Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: f) N$ k( p$ e7 G) O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( k0 D+ g) A' q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, t3 F+ E9 h* ]  X
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ b4 U6 M: [! jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% [7 I/ p% E' M, C9 N! i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# I& I7 W& D! ^4 M3 W7 b' a9 z( vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 x' s  @# x! x. S
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' ]( v  u9 F; E7 S2 C, f6 _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- @0 q  l& n$ L8 m* p; }! y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( r- i4 O2 F) L; i+ b4 w/ R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ C8 j; f) j0 p, X9 u) {, I
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& Q$ w5 O1 I$ z% Z) d0 Z3 N- w& i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 X( r; \5 E0 w8 m; ]2 H/ Zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% v0 W. l; f0 L7 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) o  N. W) Q3 L
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 ?. h* T$ f6 _5 Y% ]
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. D/ p" b9 l1 |! sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 l" y2 j) @5 o' y& V( l( W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ o5 A* z& ~" J9 F. a# ZThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s  w+ A: U) B' v
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 U% O( h, e7 h4 yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
  y6 F& v% d+ G* `; h. Rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ `" i8 C3 G. o- Y& S* b5 B, F
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 L3 ?( F+ U0 b; c3 U( E" Y# t& {
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- \5 P# N$ R( w) i  I& {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" ^! t& A% F7 ?- t* g4 ~) C5 X
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 E. r- O. j: b! W" f5 W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; z+ ?- k5 W' q: vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
/ L5 ?: Y3 p) Q: t; e  X, Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. x  ^, G. H( c) R  k% rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ b8 W! x6 D% x( ^6 G  Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. Y" S& `0 v  }/ C3 V( TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 M; l4 E  t4 ^) x5 t8 k% p
leg down over 2009.
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; j! Y. |7 q) w" t1 J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 ^$ K0 E' |0 X1 }! k, R6 k$ YAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' Q: v: N7 m- L+ a6 {+ b' ~翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& D% F+ T  E  ^

/ }! r9 g3 ]% @# ~http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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9 z5 l  z$ s) E5 B8 H6 X' b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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