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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.+ E( l* g( X5 k- g7 Z3 Q. F  x1 z9 a

3 s! X5 q6 t# m3 I; E, ?TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
. ]  u. J( J$ a! h  }8 e/ i) |$ ?# q. c' N' X
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   c. {, [3 X7 G! R$ r! g

  y& q/ K: P% h6 j) xNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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3 H% `. D1 S! O0 x9 Q+ s' RTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000./ W4 M( `( K6 W  m" ]; W( D3 ?: V
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% D+ C% P7 [+ B  v5 ]TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.5 y& k. B( ^/ p# V* p

# e4 F) [& [) C. \Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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% o8 W' A7 S( B+ r4 ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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- s, y+ N6 C1 W9 G8 B$ i, o+ A, Y% B[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。7 r# ?' I7 T! f# y
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( c8 j2 n5 S' K6 v

) n' Q; G) }( |4 Y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 O. i7 W& C7 E  W% S' O+ j
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, N: t/ q4 B  [, u, F( F很多人都回学校深造去了
  R2 H5 D4 v+ Y, @+ l# R" j嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 w9 s( B* U/ }  Z" m( {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 F: b5 V, T+ i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. {, R: R" i7 n! T0 V7 J  P4 k4 K+ x
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' D4 R+ ]: h! z7 ~+ f0 X, p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) g6 h4 [+ E  m* b4 t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided  Z$ u# z1 J/ b: l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 u: F" O7 [* x$ v, C) \/ t+ Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ K2 ]+ |( v" s! F; Z# S. C
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& E. ?" t! I6 ^& H; R. @+ x5 c. \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* ~5 ?  @& D' x/ s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& O2 t8 E! B' A8 W0 J0 w/ O6 i' k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 a* I( [7 {% L# ~9 f' o; }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this9 J5 a0 s( w! P( W  d& v0 o& r
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,  C9 M: n9 O7 Q$ V
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ c- m9 H/ X& ^& j+ ]' N- K- J
30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 F- x+ `6 {% U1 a4 ^2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 r. y6 `( I6 ^' |7 G- B( y$ JEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! c' x, S8 d2 y' H" d- A% ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 Y2 p0 z. n4 o. v+ X6 ^during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( ]- v' g9 a/ N! Ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 X- ^) B3 [1 B% R. @( m. ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ Q+ s8 }2 G& Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 L, T5 X9 r& N8 z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. {, L; w/ J& m; l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- C+ K9 L6 m( G: e* W
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 t8 r( ^0 @- h, \* ]* U5 s. j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 f. ^+ T2 ~+ j8 S8 h; d. v. Usales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- O; V* K  z: I1 f7 q$ @, Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  C& w6 q  p8 m0 |4 S! r1 t3 b( j$ q2 S. ~
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( Q' D& s+ Q4 @# Z( O
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 Q/ H' Z- x/ x7 Q% s  U- G- ]. munsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, U. j- H; q7 U- m  \# s3 `) e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 I5 h; B4 X" h2 G! \  oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# G8 i6 m6 F2 ~) U; P
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# l$ _! X4 ]8 k' C9 z# O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
+ D4 J+ V+ Z. m" N; U9 T( @4 |rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ W: _$ Q* q4 I4 o( z* ~
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 i/ v6 v# d9 F5 R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 v6 \8 M& P, EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; I) k" S* t& Z$ |0 f; W; R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 _" w! m5 S7 A9 _
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 f8 V5 I3 S9 P: @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. Q0 Z* Z9 m( e' q! n1 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) j: ?+ E$ t7 z. Y, |4 w& von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ X4 Y+ D5 ~8 p4 W) k4 A( qThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 E2 u* z% t' ?1 N) p$ h* i, R& M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 t: v& t! e6 S3 E& y* u. \4 t8 Fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" [2 ?4 a6 ]7 Nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ v0 H- o* i4 {" B5 f. U$ e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" Q* S, j* y) x2 b( AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 ?* R. J) [3 w! W3 Eleg down over 2009." y3 \' }1 N% P+ b4 a
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 g+ Y% q& R1 d1 G) v* _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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, `' A* B8 E; L2 @6 S) N* r+ I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 p/ C4 R7 G6 u翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" M6 Y# A7 x& Y, F1 }
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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