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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 I2 M) k# a% z; M/ o$ y8 MWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- x3 ~' N( \( N8 \# J0 ^7 }
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 \% ~' A& V( y. N, p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 V8 k# O/ Y# _8 h l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 o% z/ B6 O/ S9 V' fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 m- {3 Z* E- d$ ^from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# |/ k' p2 i `, uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! B9 ~& T r. i; g! {4 smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ G* _0 s4 ?! t! [: U
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: z0 J7 h3 I6 L5 j* {( t; L6 Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' ^' J' Z6 k% M* ]
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 D9 W0 B9 }0 L, c0 V
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( M* [$ S, {( Y. w! M) fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
\. a& x* J: @1 f' C' e+ khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' E T; j; b: l( S
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 I2 C/ P! r: n4 Y3 ?7 ?+ {% S7 v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& |0 X$ c7 f9 P! cEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 E- N; ^8 f! B4 Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. R, w2 n' Z9 K
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* G( p( h+ S3 A( u4 p- bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 C! u! }5 n1 [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' Y9 k. Y/ M5 e7 h4 L0 I4 d
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 p4 s/ U7 Y7 ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 A" X# o3 _" E! s2 I Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 t0 g( ~: v- g& \: B( L. C" l8 Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! R- o* C7 [7 b8 [: f* c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. L/ {- ^6 @: Z8 j1 jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 w- ~. ]; v0 x7 _+ d) ]
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 {4 N Q! H% ]4 p* Ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ P" d; ^% i& A X7 cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 v7 Z0 v0 h. W/ q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( U; }% K4 u; t, `" ~5 Z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ B% L' I2 d4 v+ |" C" Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* ?& n; ^# E# ]7 [# T2 G
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* J( ?# \$ O T, G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ b: j9 k& R* f! z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) Q6 L/ i; \. A
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" R9 z( h' V, e+ ^- m8 o, \4 c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' o# C9 ], ~4 J+ tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan2 J0 D* v `- n$ D& R/ W$ V' V* s! M
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 {6 d+ C" v3 \5 T1 U; ^% K2 mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
% N1 D5 }$ n: |8 I2 ?$ [5 Xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even: C, O1 b) W2 w* @4 H6 M* G
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. m1 v0 W6 N) g2 qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 K6 ^3 I: w+ N* B6 Y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- k3 p# `9 Z5 v, ~! a6 [' g
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 u0 Q; W0 ^3 F; k- D' @
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove ~7 d/ u$ Q' K3 P7 V1 ^% ^4 R
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% U! o+ J; ]2 d2 H
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 \7 b( f# h- X9 _5 l
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' X3 |7 ]' @' p* F9 `# j- u( ]
leg down over 2009.
3 ]1 ~. I" K) |2 I
# U0 I' }4 q, E2 k, E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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