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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.. e1 j# q/ V8 b" A" I1 y
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 0 V. n1 m2 x( L1 m( i! g
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % j. I: S7 k6 i7 V" k2 {3 q4 u& n4 V

% Q- X% E( ~( E& M" c"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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% q: H1 h0 @. b! x  _5 b& h* qNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.$ e( Y0 O+ w2 D' a) o$ u
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.   X. h% d; n$ p
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.' d* d- ?$ M9 q" h# I$ k

# p& J+ z% L. z; P8 ^4 d" N0 bMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % N+ c. q' a. k+ G

( M. Y  J, H/ Phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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9 ~6 D0 o1 z5 T5 [: WTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,8 T& c- ?1 c3 l2 z; u+ O

; q  \: o9 v5 ^3 t' f0 C" D0 `[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. @0 l# W# e  i6 ~/ a4 M' x
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 G7 V6 V6 H! P
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
* [. }( B  `; I, |嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
2 }7 a9 A- g$ S/ k) b2 ~# zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  Z! w( J5 P* {5 d5 }* j! Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 y/ @3 \: P1 t3 Z' Z1 {
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; m7 L5 ~8 l6 A1 y, M0 s$ B: t: Q/ R
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ M6 r! ]' S3 P& Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 _) k* S  H/ {' A% ~: y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# p+ i- V8 |- b9 j/ p. l2 s8 z$ wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% c. k: v! ?* X4 U
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! P5 b9 g; h; ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 P9 I6 D1 `" {5 Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ x  H$ F7 C) e% c& `5 T  y5 Z( tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' L! g1 C7 K4 v- d( J0 N
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 x/ }) s0 Z6 Z2 |( Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 q9 `4 j4 u# p' S/ A, H+ n6 [; ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  _- x2 g0 [1 [, c2 {! C9 f" F30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ C/ @  E3 G4 s- s0 |6 H+ Z8 E2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! c; ]0 E% s  z% G3 l  ^+ @1 b" iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 m2 J8 ^" E; g0 C6 T1 U- x
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 l2 D/ j) y5 z4 w# X
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 x( o8 X9 R2 N+ h5 Ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# ^% k" _9 {2 \  _. D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: ^6 h% k) N4 h9 C8 O9 [5 w& Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 X7 l6 }* E" W. S- C4 F! Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( [  z0 A5 a( e2 D( R; v
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 [; A1 s7 u2 C/ r8 U. bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 O' B9 G* h& A- G# W! N
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 K2 C. I" z% y6 C) S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& R9 ]' C5 V% S: H; y! lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 z7 F8 |3 @( K( f) L$ Etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ f" S- @/ h1 t* V: @- @; }4 ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
! L1 u! x( ?3 x0 v8 Kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: v- t8 d4 X1 g& ?
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  z5 A" _: i  L3 \# \3 w4 {% |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* e4 |( O/ K& H1 j+ q8 P
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 d1 k, E0 W; _# i5 {1 x* K7 Q6 Iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) Y: y4 ?/ x6 p: T7 Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 f/ o% G! ~* |2 @The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% m5 D$ \0 D! o: `0 G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 {) T$ x7 X# h% g
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 {! E5 O+ F0 C5 T  g. c% R# thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; J# A3 T/ n7 o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 ?7 a  o9 {4 S% N' N/ h# c8 Pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- T: K1 V( N& u1 C8 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, Q  y, b+ L1 F7 w$ Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& y  O' l( e( D6 O, CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ ?6 m7 R3 t2 q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
" M1 |( M3 {8 ~- ~exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 d& S& w; H. f. X7 z$ a" E# Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 f3 B! ?. n, `3 P5 a: ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# |, u  n6 y: Z/ A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* K* z( p8 m6 D: ~: c( J  r; xleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: X4 E% d9 q. z, _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
1 Y' s* d8 G: |2 ^翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子) T1 i! x/ G) M* E. _
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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