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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 E, A# _1 t/ p) v& e6 F# dWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 g- q8 t D' i+ |4 d9 [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 T; W: ~- f+ o- Q% ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 K6 d g# z/ I1 x+ r" x/ T2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ v! f* F3 d# G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 ]) S7 }; \" A+ H; dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; _! p# }4 e# ithe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 u# ]" L4 n# s6 T
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( M; W2 r. [7 W/ x
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* l' p. u1 r0 k' D% v( dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ F; l+ m# D( j2 X" Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 L) x. Q3 ` I- z4 `/ d, U4 R1 l% @8 a
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% z* \* h3 [* G: y. ~year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, s( |, x% e7 e. i9 |* |9 o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! w! o' f. R9 a7 M, D
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 R( R. I! `5 [# r. L O8 _/ x
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" |- @3 W) L% C: ^& B/ iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 m5 O9 j# r7 a0 [6 c u: Q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 i% e9 @1 P/ \ o- Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* t" ]3 J) D; u3 I" e2 ~( i6 w
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 T% j+ K6 d9 Q, nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: m1 k) h3 w/ P8 I& Y! C! B H. ?* ]
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ p, D( q( i! q) }9 Q$ a- X5 l* Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) b, Z5 {3 K, A2 j' c Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ H7 R9 s" x& t- ^9 g8 |excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ _! P' J8 }# p1 s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a [+ c: ?* P; Z, `1 E7 i
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 v* V; s) I; B J s
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( I7 F3 Y. y; Q. v$ K& q) ?
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# [- i7 q9 z: B7 ~- X, Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* `: b/ p, v \ {9 W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& R( Q6 |8 f) s5 R# u9 G2 l
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the q- L- U f" b% m% h
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) J C7 U' ~/ E% k2 W9 e- kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 ~) F5 J7 s) p' Aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 [1 R6 a8 l# V* ^7 V# `rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 b" c% l) v# q- v- |/ E
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& b" U6 u/ d X, Wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" y1 Y$ S4 O$ D8 r2 jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 C0 y( T7 N) j: B# ^' K B* Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* p' l( V2 o! F1 j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; V, v# v' H. g' j+ H& f) v& cprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" B P; h; ~1 Z" Q1 }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; H3 Y0 s6 {8 c1 l) Z# N1 r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. q6 `7 ]! Y0 g/ g* C4 n
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 o( d0 K$ p; w# ^" J' N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 \7 f' J3 D5 V& {5 W- Qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, V. B" O0 ^3 F1 Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' _4 T2 S/ ]/ G+ A
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 J; C0 x- Q' P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# @, R O' {8 a. m! v; u' L' `
leg down over 2009., V8 d7 f% }$ M$ H
1 }: z' k( F$ M% ~, N, X& f
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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