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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
; a) b) f1 _) f- K4 H. k
5 P) _. f  D: t2 b' S# l8 ^The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 `4 Z: G' z' q, `9 r
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.4 n# p  b5 }4 Q5 p& S$ S

) r' \7 V. t1 Q% @TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ y6 C; T6 Q; K4 m. s

) y& C) O( m7 S# p+ P; O. X& N  ^"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. . d# q4 z7 H; z  s5 O9 ]! \( e

' p% L: c& J; A& x3 MTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.+ f: I' H9 _3 b  d
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, q$ y$ m( u" L  r: [
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; x# [9 l; [, [6 u
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
4 e8 r$ \" T( D% `( @7 z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
% x! ?3 {7 n7 n/ f; B  ~嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; x, y8 L" n' a3 P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ c/ _% q) F- E. f/ dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) ]: f  p: E) q7 g3 s, I5 W- x& nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! Z( v, ?/ M# O9 x  w+ a
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; v  {, v/ b$ F% Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ e9 _/ W7 d; I5 C! Q' ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  [( P# `: R2 Q. rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: M5 ^. O  D8 w- z2 ]; u/ A6 r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
  k1 f/ p4 ?9 ?1 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ C% e) ^  U2 Z( w3 wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 h+ J' `/ ?9 D$ b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 N. x9 ~3 X3 |: R# W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this9 a5 ?- m' m" M
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 M0 D: w+ c7 a' ]: v4 X
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 m$ A+ `9 j/ s$ y30,000 new households will form in the province during
# M9 N2 G& e% B2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: p- s/ @( V8 H6 h. q3 O4 U& sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 H5 `' z2 _" S3 V. p9 A
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& O. X. }- Z& [. u2 X1 {. ^  p$ l; oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  H2 E+ Y- @& m3 `2 N# s5 A
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
  h, U) r- M! ^2 zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) U/ E9 _1 O- p1 |! r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 }" j) z8 J: E4 z4 h$ ]% ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
+ G( i9 D" }1 f2 u( i) mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 i" h" G- Y7 i! S  sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) b5 P* S: m6 h4 A
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- H. y7 h* ~5 Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 r+ P! P9 ~6 E/ o+ ]: `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# ~1 {; I1 j# {9 u! v
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in  {* e0 F+ f4 A' U- }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ U' i) B# C) G) q6 q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 h# F3 d7 R+ s1 Y3 mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 }- t+ L  I: a- X% gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 t$ l9 |7 u' F+ ^# p/ x& ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" |$ H9 F' R! Y7 J1 }of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  X: O6 e1 T: ]# @. Drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ G8 l& ?! i+ r( K% A5 E; _6 n8 e; {The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 W2 x, ?# U( y& e
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 W# T6 K$ d/ T
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan6 o$ a, z) U- r0 k) h- r, p9 |/ p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. e9 F7 @& P, ~$ D7 }: hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale  I& D( `+ ^; m; H! K* a" m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% H2 A# s8 H) H2 X$ n9 cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 j/ ~2 E9 D' y; K3 X* v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 Y" M' n, U! B- x  s0 \) p! QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 v7 d% e* [# K$ V% }5 D& Y
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 @2 N6 ~, e% H" E2 S' I$ iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  h8 Y5 N; U: Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 h+ {8 i4 g4 ^: v9 K8 }) @- vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  i) j3 R& y( Z% b, t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' t7 |# i3 I) kleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; w) T- s8 ]8 \. {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 m. @& f7 n, p5 e% v: d! q7 I1 C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. + I6 A# B* m# @. P8 @7 g. W
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ R$ V. q/ A8 n9 v
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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/ O+ f; ]4 h0 Z6 T* \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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