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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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: I5 l$ }* m. i6 Q0 oThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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9 O3 \. M0 {" V- I5 T& zNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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7 r  [6 C( a, j# w! [, RTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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% m+ S3 E8 F, Z- h"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ! N2 M- v& ]: e5 z2 Y4 @

! t% K. b) q2 @0 tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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1 N4 X4 q! X4 @7 y& Z) eMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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) v! M% I' Q) B: W0 z) f9 qhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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7 v' _9 w# o1 e1 E8 k0 DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,0 Z& }4 z; h; b6 E

  A  v+ W) f- j8 W7 b9 v5 ^[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 n" k" @; `- k' }
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, _, h! s- Q' L- S: {  k' L4 ^, @- }
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 - h; F* I6 q4 h/ e. m
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了( O& X% v# V; V% e
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 A# h: L/ q' p1 u% K
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( ~) O* w! |' p1 _6 n, t" A9 L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( s. I! q: Z" l# b
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
! c1 J( c+ F' |1 [- ?6 |7 K2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, e# A6 \; {; mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 J5 s7 g" d# V
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," G  B% U7 c  E
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 ?$ f- l: Y7 s* f, ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( h  X& p# j' P: y2 w6 X: e7 G
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 T% h& a- q3 L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 d5 F$ {# E' l, R8 Z. ^! ]. k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& v; U$ z8 l1 H5 e0 sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' h: k) M# @. b% u/ B
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! T+ X! \* Q6 c4 S+ C/ z7 G4 i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 d  W+ y1 ~1 V* S& w0 z5 N: [30,000 new households will form in the province during1 d$ g* x. d4 |$ w: M( X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
, D2 G8 Z' i0 L! F( qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 ]6 u- [! s5 S0 \8 Qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 W( g2 u  s  l8 E% x6 s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& I. R; C+ ~- r9 u, D/ s4 Dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ l3 @  C$ d$ }: N- ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" }: O& ?: ?' i  c1 m; G5 m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 Q& c) ]+ C( i& y- `) v
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% F5 S2 |8 B) h9 M' U3 yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& ~6 e& t8 S5 c( O$ h' r
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: u6 }- G; _/ E" w
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% g& P2 j1 {" T& M0 O2 H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: m- }) ]3 u7 Ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; C1 z! D( P" R0 \- V% a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" l+ z/ e' g; y$ U7 xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% o9 X6 R' u% y9 P2 L2 }' ~) N0 p/ Punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 z" z  |4 F, u$ u1 \5 z$ h. C& xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. l) y- _% k/ p9 z4 v% gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' U/ u5 p: T/ H! Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ ?! S' M  q8 s# ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) C# b" E3 U1 x+ @rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& R& z( ]& A' k* `5 ]
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 [$ `% i, f- W, u; [0 G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 G- I) k7 D4 P2 [, T# v* o6 U$ U
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan- }1 S5 ?( l9 W- k8 z7 F- o; ^
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) x+ a% r! `6 q3 Q& q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 K2 [! `8 ^4 x4 zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even1 P2 Y. I& ?5 _; l. K- K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% \; C  q, i3 {* k- G! fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 [1 I2 J% Z! f/ K7 P4 hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' ]: _$ R  w) z- b. N" w0 n
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 o, k, R7 G( [8 c# D! b  ~3 Jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) I1 T% g' c6 v1 w2 P! }
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 A* L9 j+ x2 l4 P8 G8 |! y, rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 R. q9 [! a0 ~- D2 ^% A3 y, _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; E1 E5 u4 i9 t& n: ]leg down over 2009.) Q- Y* C. N, D' F% ]" f

& q) P" b" D  j7 I  [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* z1 N9 w% O5 B3 |1 g. C& D( N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' p1 n: [" o& D1 |9 t2 C1 z
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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4 Y/ f! }% f& D, h6 Bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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% \& r( ^, V' B0 p- v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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