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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta& v8 |: j, ~% n9 B K8 {& |
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, Y( `( o2 Q1 \7 v$ Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 f( y! M& k* q" z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 y& m8 _3 ?. U8 i: g2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" W" m& @) t+ D iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, K# {2 _# l5 ^+ y' q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. m( E7 u3 A& k
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 \5 [1 c, r' e) _! e
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& V) Q6 b# ?4 r1 p; g2 S. {+ p# A, Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ _) p1 e! S+ _' i* X7 w& L+ F; @precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 M) |. W+ \$ C z) y j( \& }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' _# } b" H, Z) I6 \
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- h V9 e2 X; \" {3 j, W
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 J+ y) h" E) D; i3 s# F; ^0 V d" } o$ Jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! @' E f' c& j- |30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 `* [. Z! s# O2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year." ]4 E# p# o' R/ f- f
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; A! i' D; c% ?+ U8 i
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ r" g: `8 R8 b: Q( pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 G4 N1 s$ {7 Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 p7 G7 l0 j! bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; G/ \. _! V1 I& H+ bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% K3 b/ F0 e& h- {, W; |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 q, I, u; Q1 |3 P: `9 ?' V5 N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ i1 v o) F; u$ `2 f& I, {9 lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of Y1 |! W& N" V$ D+ I" p
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) J7 ]& w+ p( v) i- C! O' |) S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, d' _7 \2 \) o- \. g% A. U
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% l# @$ s2 A! k) c/ qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ R1 e; T- @! g! eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) b$ w$ E* o- munsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' z; ~% H+ a2 f, E4 m. u: x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 S! u' t1 c! L( W/ p. X$ Vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 n" {* f% n- g2 J; y7 Q6 _- j
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( Q* Q& G* j% M5 S* }, J8 g0 t4 Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 E/ y' }6 k* R& t
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% [% ]. s. m% X+ g& y$ r; d6 ]The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 I1 ~3 x# n; M" E) D# V) a; @- Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* g7 o2 Y# M" d7 K, m; p/ |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! [$ @2 d3 ~& u$ }9 Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' P, B2 c$ |( G: \0 |3 ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 V% ^4 @# W# y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 ~+ L+ U: A B+ Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 _' G- o" y" X' Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ y% ?' i: c' C4 \
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 _0 q* d% S6 {0 k
resale price in February is evidence that past prices) f! g6 Q, N* D% J0 j1 x3 z% d# ^1 {5 m
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ ]8 k8 J1 P, }6 I; |
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% B! |4 i3 I* P6 B: T) R9 Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# c" U( o' V9 K' x& h8 P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
m) s1 D6 z% w. yleg down over 2009.
1 l7 G- d" X2 k; W1 }! @+ N! v# I/ t) y) }5 P
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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