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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 X% k1 x' h h6 X# g) Y( fWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) [5 h. a8 ]2 @# y5 ?boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 E: v1 k6 C; c' T/ {3 K
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ F: T# l3 I+ T, Z: ]4 Y r0 ]* Q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( A* ?# J/ @; y" V! L X( J7 U2 ~6 c
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 g6 k, p9 E1 H, @$ |7 O8 N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ i: p/ S: y! I+ \ L
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 o8 F" q5 n5 k+ _1 p/ p* R; U( R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 r1 f. `4 c5 w# D; v( j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 k& w! n, C9 x/ ], W
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. S" c4 q$ r+ Kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 S; ~1 L" X: b* [1 Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
z" B$ ~, z% Q. Z& J# |" Gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 `8 w& l/ i3 ^
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" F% d4 r: J0 {# f2 |1 m) x
30,000 new households will form in the province during0 b$ X+ U+ T- H0 S
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 S5 n% |8 q8 {; @Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# z+ W9 r* a7 R8 d+ Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* G9 A1 s0 U' [4 {+ E# G/ [6 Sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 t( g: [% P8 ?8 uhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% N4 w; |; t+ {* s* w& R$ A `3 @" f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& w3 ?/ F* v n$ p u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 y9 m7 c- Y8 p# b* Z* U6 y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" S$ ~: ?! s: s+ E. k( Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 C: T3 t/ |7 K# H/ S# kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of p' C4 B+ C# O2 ^% \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 f8 I, _6 F2 I) w- I- J# zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 h- y0 N5 Y5 t9 Z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 e) ]$ e8 u1 c2 `6 Q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- A6 Z4 f, K0 W) B& m# [unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 A' E* q" R/ f. ~, l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. x5 K5 A, K9 l, y" krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' c6 n+ H* w% T2 z' H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 @5 t+ l+ ]3 b# g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( a0 }! R: i- w+ V1 P" @
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 Q; Z% ?2 O5 P1 ]4 L. K, w0 q+ j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
- T! a2 N/ ~* n [! b0 `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ `0 T0 K P! P8 o' I% pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' _+ j9 r P, @- a2 l. M( c9 @Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 T1 |9 N' s! H6 Q. K2 ^: Shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& B& W' p6 \( o3 m9 S6 Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: z" m) H5 j! D% u8 O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
y( O- n; f7 S% s1 w7 W, Q+ a athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ e) V8 K: W$ gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! e+ M) _6 z& \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' a: U% r2 G' @
resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 R; }8 v% c# p- Z& P* H7 V
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" D$ u4 o4 U- w* rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! g+ I/ @8 `% Edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ |* \8 d8 B& r4 X% V" H9 n: p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ M: m* b5 u8 i4 H7 |3 S
leg down over 2009.
$ M8 L1 K# e$ h; E* T4 |; ]/ a% j, _0 v. _' \7 e4 K5 ^2 b
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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