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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta; T, R, ?# r. c0 O. q! m6 ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 i/ R9 ~9 D- V2 `+ H7 _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* u1 s7 x* y' P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 ?! G0 _( n- K V; C
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" i# x3 V6 u( e' y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 R. M/ v f% c, Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, ^7 d0 `8 E+ z6 j( _
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! o% a% Q% z7 d: ^4 W5 T( K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ v& r3 S C! @4 b
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& @- O& B5 C& c! x" Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
: A6 b* f& j( C* I" k% J3 s6 {to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( e, b2 d; l4 C$ [" B8 r# B% k0 f* b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* S3 r% I; {$ H j+ K, T6 W2 i+ A8 s
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 H/ a- E$ G/ \6 ~" k6 Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) _8 M; H2 y, }" G) R. Z/ {5 O
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ F ], h/ T# m; m8 X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ k5 l' y: }2 b; S( L/ pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* T M X b' Y: p+ fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% X& C# K$ J8 {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; o o [5 p: h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: i% E" C9 o% n8 R! b$ x7 A
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ N z/ U- g* A. pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- c5 _: Q( B" I% |1 f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! M. O$ I& \- q. yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; h5 [2 s. u+ R" Z* v- D0 Q8 Qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% C2 O8 G2 L3 L( z) I6 ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ S: M: n. |' W8 L. J6 u L; B. Msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
2 j. {" j) ^3 q$ M* C, fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& w; E# p0 `" A# c/ i3 ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( V/ j! A! B. M4 M) l, `/ hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 N. w: ^: V# E6 I' Z+ F& o
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' l$ v, J, ^% a# P& Frecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
x4 ~6 }; b0 {0 B. Y2 C; c* ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 B' j8 u7 I: |: V, r/ \major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- F& d) t2 D, `! a- Qof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: Z4 Y9 p- i, L# g" l$ vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" T: T& S5 u) v5 ~( `# Q g% hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ \/ o6 k) W: R1 w- eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& q% C" G2 v1 G. d5 r& h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan- z1 a1 I, ]/ o$ ]) G1 Z9 h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 J5 `0 c L. H4 h! T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" ~' {$ A3 Q9 Kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- s6 K; F5 a# t% m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 p+ J" y: K1 R: Q* f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., x1 v! A7 ~$ C' I) C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: o6 `+ L" U. b7 E5 c, ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 @9 r6 K: p4 \5 Y% d
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ U1 ]$ J( g: K* _
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& Y; q4 l( L/ ?% t" r0 h; p' {deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 ]# g' k. x+ N1 O& H' o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 y& S0 g J8 M9 G: R- N+ z Y; o$ L
leg down over 2009.
, B6 {6 B$ j5 d! P& X; ?
) Y6 X2 d& ]" B: z2 b) Y/ k0 N; W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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