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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" Y O9 r9 ^ J8 w4 R
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 L$ O9 q; o( H$ O7 N, O, Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. g& g) r) [: bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 S8 U! \& B& P, ^ W( {/ T+ q2 ~
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& S: g' J, y4 G/ K2 E) L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 M' v) q! f& |7 M2 E3 u3 T& q- |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 t9 l% e! v. a; C
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; d8 a' h: [/ n I" K$ s/ F# O
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' T, W# o% f R+ X2 [4 k7 ~
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed G& P! J0 G. D$ v& }$ v$ A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( [+ S" V3 r6 _
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 C u$ h# ^( I2 T$ B& C9 W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 ]+ l6 \6 o% w- B1 `4 p; Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) _1 M0 y4 J4 @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ f! [1 i) w6 `/ G# k" P30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 }# p/ F1 |7 o7 r- W1 {2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 F- T+ d; i. b) p9 T& C" r: x" uEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! {! H/ u5 T2 o5 R3 F+ g
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%9 f9 _& q$ A" R, v4 q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 u) V3 s1 x1 @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- I, v }4 X1 x) j- ~! hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 x4 }; d9 v9 U/ m3 T& n4 qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' } K: T; ?7 A7 K" n5 Psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 d* z6 I- ?' a' zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 R# a7 u6 \, s+ f/ t
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& I5 z( D% x, Q6 n5 P
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; w T' l- l5 |( wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( y0 d6 x2 ?/ L# k" v0 M: R E
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; X: S, D# v: w, ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 Q. c* p" [* |- e, J, c9 r. y! g5 t7 Nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 g( A& \8 a$ y t* B0 H2 L. ~unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; E, B* I& H+ Erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 a( l; i1 O; e( uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 Y" ~, q. T- Y6 xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ o/ `5 u* j) e5 _, pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled, Q$ d4 Q4 P% H+ N% d. v- f; y$ q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 d# ^: G6 O& v: L: IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 F, k; P, R8 i2 E3 R2 M/ {
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 f x# h3 A/ |$ e" R: @9 V; m. zAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 X0 C6 {2 P2 F) V& D: Chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' l V+ p* h5 ^0 f. _, U5 r: L' O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ t+ ^% G# E) o0 Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 M' G9 s% W7 s7 j" t5 d
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ {+ {/ v" `4 E' _1 k u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
{( [' N) ~7 zThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 ]5 \7 V& F/ Y* n' E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 J* Y7 L2 a8 W! hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* I* g( A3 y. S" H! t/ D8 }0 _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 I& [& G8 @2 s1 }9 }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 t) M" B+ O& w" IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 s2 N$ v: U# l/ f# u# Zleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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