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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.   {/ G7 W4 o1 P" q1 n/ P+ n
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ! j' t% y/ ?- P& P, b1 W

! o8 V7 ?. `" y# V# UNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 `! t! A% A6 J) P7 F5 \
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 L, x4 f6 b2 x" w. ~: x, N+ z

+ k) W3 A2 w( HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.7 S: |4 `7 z4 O0 O1 F7 k0 {
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ s  J. l9 l4 i9 b' X; D% Q
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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# ?6 u  _7 L" ~2 h( H# tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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& D( G8 \9 g7 t* a+ \! f: N4 X1 S5 Q[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 w* J3 S6 |9 h, e2 l3 k 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 `* l2 B9 F% H: a8 Y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
# `% w, Y& I+ O嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta. G/ I3 u3 `9 f7 Y' `8 Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# l& L0 p6 h; E+ E. Y$ z+ q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 g6 ?  [% {/ s3 F- q& f4 s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 s5 f" g6 C8 _, m
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& q, H* e! E  Y$ t/ W" p& Hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, Y" I  A/ H% Y$ Z9 @+ T! b6 u5 \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,+ r7 K' [5 W2 O- E- S7 c# j" |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! [; i7 z, |% _/ D! \6 p& h
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- {/ x, C& }1 y# U5 Wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 M$ B" S6 |  b  g6 P, x2 q$ y& O
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- ]$ g( v6 n2 O+ C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' H( w& g9 M" A. G8 ]/ X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 _" r3 y. }: Y' Y# X4 Z" syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 J4 I- y5 E) B  G2 j7 ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- V, L7 x+ Z' X5 f5 M
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 [5 p/ N) Q, e+ b$ d4 Z4 o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.( v/ b6 _4 \" D" ^" U3 d9 N8 p' U
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, ?6 o3 g* Q$ O% y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 x" V, f! j6 l3 a1 z1 v: U) z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ C& M8 e/ W' S' l) P$ V' u
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% D1 Y3 T$ ?: g* [+ n& L) X6 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 F  U( a5 B. P' p( g, Q- z! ^
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 z5 [# _1 J+ F9 ^7 t' r
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  D: d* K( t) E" T; {clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' Y5 ]2 }# T$ W3 B3 R* D0 iexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 ]+ @( E# P" C$ }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 h( P7 F! j  o/ h  t, u
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. G$ }8 \% A- C1 s1 ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 A. H2 L# Z1 k- `. X0 }
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& T5 O* B2 O% P
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' `. ?. v# J1 w8 tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 M: |7 k- J, r) ]' r+ A( xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- V4 _; d# z2 V" k7 C
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 b8 n, y8 Y6 {8 f. c  Bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
  k2 }0 H: E/ pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled% G7 I' W/ w( W2 M2 E# Q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; d6 A- A. l$ v. r& p4 g' E# H# `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: v8 i# l1 R& p! {3 D% m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* M2 d9 e8 a% ?) d/ [* u6 u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
% N- [, D! |! H# f# j# hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. D1 ]$ q- @8 _  I% c
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- ?# W( Y0 T6 e* n2 t8 I( aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 E+ v4 f) A8 Y6 Dthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. j0 b: H. I. ~! X/ Yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! R9 l8 t- K& [$ p) Y# VThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! x$ i( }: A) p. F) F1 I9 Q  eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
* f1 \8 Z. e& R3 j  @exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 d% E# c) ]$ U# t8 }/ P( _0 W$ hhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 \8 G& a% ?6 A9 O/ y9 Y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  O4 l5 q% H! E/ {Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# Y  {! g) l& L0 fleg down over 2009.
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" e% E8 H$ r8 y" t" ~3 s, Q$ V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" E4 \8 `' P3 F3 [+ ]2 M( N# p; U8 lAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ s8 @: u2 a9 |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子/ V' r7 k: J0 y' E* i( H
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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; t! [" \; v5 o: N$ i& V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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