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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. h$ l+ g5 V' p" GWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 F, r0 n9 S! Bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ d# n5 L) N4 x4 D: Y, hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 H0 U4 x9 s$ a/ U( C: n0 i1 q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% q4 y; j/ w' s% \formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# A6 m) y) E: J& q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 M" p' r- Q8 D* n* Z0 |, x% h
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' G# w8 `' c' u) l" ^3 f- `
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 W+ F( m( [& Y" {- Q/ D/ Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 C9 F) t$ w5 Y5 {9 I
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ A4 \& k; l' W* `to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year X8 y0 E0 P) d P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ b; V& a+ E: k' z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) o6 w& U9 J7 e- q! Z* M
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ v, v' p* J- z7 Y2 ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during- P- @3 }4 S7 t/ E h5 ^' c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: d0 X( b s. j3 s; ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% R5 P& ~) b; B1 _. W. C- G2 U$ Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ V3 y4 L* t$ d5 ]( `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 k" O! r) p; s1 [/ A3 U( u( e8 P0 B
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" \/ v6 j# ]) y/ R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals }' w+ G5 z" T% J; o8 u4 U/ V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, O9 L6 c% V2 U( P& gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' z. u5 M' W7 R2 Sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 U# G j2 s* L2 u' ~; W$ [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* i1 A3 W$ o4 O0 c6 n8 j$ R% O) c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 s# b1 S2 s% t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, [3 Q- S1 c. C
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 _/ h) u. f8 b4 i I4 h# A' n
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 U2 q2 W: K _ }. [0 q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" v9 ]! {. H7 e u8 J. d# H
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, |4 N' y5 x# [+ N! f. [
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. I' y8 A7 b+ i: N0 O) W2 c4 A& [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 K9 X6 K3 l/ R5 X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- J5 e w/ g4 |) a/ t& ^" [
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 B; B0 e4 V, Jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 o9 K1 {3 p$ F: o% Z8 ?/ o- k- mThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% ]( y( l) d1 U3 _, W E) c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' n( e5 T$ t. W7 P8 }! I
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% }8 G3 p! \. E9 H$ P
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- C2 ]1 a9 j; l8 J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" D2 \5 @. f; W1 ]" W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ R# l0 ~* r4 x2 ^1 ^
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
b" H) B* z. @/ {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ X4 W( I3 v, S) xThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& ^: u6 u( ~7 `, v* p
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 h, X0 {/ S6 J& m, iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; Y6 v, Z5 c" H/ k( e9 ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' N* G x# ^* L! x4 g
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 M4 l3 X8 W) l$ ]1 [6 |) ~, Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- P4 | q3 e4 x9 ^8 M
leg down over 2009.
9 m8 }% ^# Y0 _* @3 x9 K+ j1 v( E
S7 N& G" B5 E8 {; {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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