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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 b* N/ S! K! d6 K+ _/ {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 U! E1 }+ O2 B2 D7 W9 X9 c
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; I. c9 Q7 S i8 e
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 h4 b. K2 U, D5 t" c2 {1 [
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 @; p3 h2 m( U
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided5 b+ W6 B0 P5 v. F8 x) g( h$ U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- o. s. w; |; k8 A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 F- R% Z8 H: @4 fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' p3 ^0 m7 Q( r2 b9 k& D7 dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* a# f1 m) G& A; y | L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- r- R9 @) X7 r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
d1 W& w" i3 ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 E& m- H9 V6 ~: p \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& O# J% M' q+ ]0 }' ~6 t, m6 \' S" F1 ~
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* d& n* X& z' x& K" G& C+ ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during' X: X( b2 V, b4 B3 J- Z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 V; g* D6 `9 A* a5 Q5 I# h& u$ g e& JEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 A7 @* E5 v* H1 I
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, s& Y; ^2 V0 @# _+ }during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% n. |% A8 t" b2 g& U$ yhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ v6 U1 K8 G( N L$ R! t/ s; P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 C) Y' X! ]5 p5 Uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 g. v3 l5 K# [+ W0 u) y0 {
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. s1 i" S! r' p7 i: V; @+ m; p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, l7 ^# C6 a+ ~7 I# ~0 @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ [6 S& M2 E* C5 p8 W) O! U' H
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) \: s! q( H- R9 y+ E
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 o6 ~' h" a4 z+ n, | j( u/ A$ p( Rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; _# n1 {& n$ M7 L, {6 xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; L" X$ E% n: xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
N- _6 C% t) vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ |6 t* J2 Z$ a6 m" i$ a1 ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 Z; q# \* Z2 }3 Z; U
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 \% v! s: I3 g- p7 ?% d* I6 imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ X' e, }- Q! W& |( Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 l3 }2 q6 Z: }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ w0 q% i( y: }
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ ~) S6 w- r& A6 y# f# G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ ^' y% O6 {6 x7 b' I5 b" l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 n" j7 D" b1 `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. `0 z* s. x0 Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' `5 I; D! y) {: eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( F2 Z0 ]; Y! G
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: q+ {6 [1 q/ }& ^: [
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) X: `$ T( e# l* d4 |$ o( ^( [
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 W1 i& f& ^, H3 `resale price in February is evidence that past prices. w) j0 F! g7 p6 |) t- q
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( h, n. t! V; j6 z6 b& E
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- W( |7 M V' _# t
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# k; W! K* v M' }7 w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 c- v5 k. {& m9 G* m6 w; W2 z$ {4 Aleg down over 2009.2 [( B8 K$ i( W$ ^: X! s
. }: ^: |% D% c+ g/ B5 r, m( g3 V6 m( S
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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