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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta, N5 V0 ?5 p# Z1 r) q; i& l3 v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( p9 j) e2 p) c: J6 ~" V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 \9 j: i3 v# m2 `! R4 Y% w5 _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' r& Q( @2 I Y4 D2 _! B6 H% _- l- e2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 f" c' x+ V+ @) ^( Q' o
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) F1 m5 W7 e; U1 vfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," W/ ]' y. d+ {: |" O- ^* w6 ~
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ t6 k; V; A( D$ r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# q. \4 l0 C" P1 N- D; i! r* t/ Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% K3 R: g8 O) C/ sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ ]+ O8 ^3 g9 `' M( mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 Z* l9 ~# z" X, R4 I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! R* t, d% n! C" u3 Iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 o! K4 r" ?' v" i Q0 G4 x
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 Z% B( }- ]$ @1 Q- G; h
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 e# ~+ V8 x( s: A* t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- z7 P, Z" z( y$ l9 c# a
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ r$ Q: b, d* q! ~0 v" _/ h
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& l3 L, T$ {1 }9 D1 F4 u% aduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) h0 V8 r' y) j5 D& n% m, V
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! L0 r8 }& p f6 R3 p; [9 b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; W4 ]! f1 z; V( g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& }& m9 X, n/ {( T
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 A2 S& u- R ]; Y# R, s2 s7 R
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 | T% D/ l* O$ e* X6 o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 F {9 Q, F0 ^) q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, n( e# U& j0 x% D' W& b! @8 {
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( f/ h* U" `4 j) c9 ]+ \0 L! y5 p& Obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 x# O# x' q( k/ O0 V
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 ~3 j' \ k8 @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 I2 \, k8 [5 y. D! v8 o/ w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 w$ A8 I8 u4 T8 x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! o" N* ~5 t# _3 k5 p
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 t, @5 G/ H6 w% Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories; V5 l3 H0 l- M, _2 ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled% W [- K ^9 k8 w; O6 M Z$ Y' @# Z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; @1 D5 Q# s. ]* KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 i4 U7 ]% X- L7 F
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 P! ~' C6 W" e/ f, ^Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
% G9 A6 I1 v4 ?5 fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& L+ P: Z1 H) \" q, a% A1 j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. a8 Z: A0 m eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 I; L: T/ j4 C9 s1 G8 b7 ?7 ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ {, ~7 Q8 W n) c' ~
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 d$ X( T- K! y* R4 P+ K' S% P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! o( u) M+ {" L6 l2 e0 Cresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 F' E6 x( i) G- B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; l2 I4 ?0 l1 |) C3 B
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( D+ y8 t8 g' H9 D6 l4 {6 D
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. L, F* t( G6 W# M2 J o0 eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ ?9 Y- i" B3 N( i4 J4 V- d$ ~- i. Fleg down over 2009.
2 ]+ v ~# H5 {* ?8 f1 b4 x& H3 q" k+ {% W1 D7 F; }; x- _
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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