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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" D3 k+ L/ ~$ a7 D. N; g1 V/ d
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ w9 I2 [0 W& r7 I# j' f* @" Eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: B6 o# C2 w. X% A! r/ j8 v4 c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 ?+ o- O" g3 S9 @1 ~' l. [
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" P# j& c$ W# k) ^9 G. b& c9 o
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: x% s) N+ W% y ^7 T o$ afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: l7 L, t" C5 L" d, }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) p* D. b5 J! c" S7 r& w, A
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! e# u3 n) N: n" x4 g* Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! e6 \( R A9 {! Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 ^9 v+ {" Y+ vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, S8 y: t' ?0 x$ @prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 W' A! W: O8 t3 yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, I- j/ h u1 X5 ?" Xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: l. h" V: G& l( h1 ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 w$ ?" q, i1 Y0 h8 n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 ~ \. j6 } q- b# zEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 c; K2 V1 H4 Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 x$ }5 D) I, P- t* L+ T7 s- Y
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 d6 A2 p& }3 ^
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 |. q9 g3 b4 G
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; x7 t1 y! |" P xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( w, W% M g8 E+ v' n' f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 n" _ W& R! F0 o9 q2 X# c' ]; q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" u$ C( ?3 l0 q7 v: t. V4 v# \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 X) L$ i* E/ d: H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: u1 s/ h! F$ ?' v3 u4 g
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- y* d# K0 r, g8 g5 lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ i5 X* {% j9 o$ ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" D1 N0 v* b& y n0 x$ {
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 i2 K+ ^0 Q3 F+ j/ ]0 o, ^4 i! d
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 C, t' P5 Z2 t5 J. _1 p1 ?/ s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 O+ e% `& Q! Iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; O/ x: x# X$ E0 a( ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ U2 R# [6 K* a2 Y* h8 @& Eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 c; | a7 d( Q4 v0 i' v( H7 i# Srapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( u. J/ j: {' A) s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 ?% e1 B. k3 }; z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 T2 x& W0 l+ Y$ V! m( ^8 \
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan. ?0 @9 ?) a" K1 F% i# m. D
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, L4 C) j5 _; J- M5 ~& Trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale V! v0 k/ x! r
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 [2 f5 v- [! Z5 p
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" {; G0 Y9 Q: G" F- x* J, Z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ D8 h! y, t: S, jThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& _) {6 |, a9 v& I- }" T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! S) [: ^# {7 n( b' g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# |+ F m" n2 J1 N8 h$ L
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- m- H+ c0 O% e' S6 B% S% {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) j$ A: M, P+ P9 o! [# z9 T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- N/ w- ~# R& p* k5 @4 d: T4 T- { ]leg down over 2009.! p/ ]7 J% P1 x' E
! F8 O4 v- w) d3 r/ e" e/ `0 j+ p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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