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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 `4 [: Z3 g$ K: A$ Q2 S

! y0 v' y7 _/ l4 z4 d6 f, oTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + A( ^/ P* e# D* i0 V$ b% J! @

" a: [8 z' ^- g+ o- x4 u7 DThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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$ M- Y/ n% ^$ o* U"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 O0 m' d1 M# y

: r4 `; I! W1 m( b$ F- PNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  t0 u0 w  ]$ r) [3 J7 o) C$ p
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.2 {3 f: W3 B/ [& u& _5 A

: [( B% s7 t# M, ?% G"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 0 N' k: C; z* a* z! v1 ?5 Z0 ^# o

" b. Q; j: o- y4 R' y/ STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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: v# w% C6 I/ T% ]. iMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & S: E8 |8 ]0 w% ^" S% O* g
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
" H* k; f: D% z6 h3 |# \# F4 I$ I! ]% r' i- ~; g* O7 _) \% Z" z
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 i! C* \5 I2 l, _ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。7 e4 T" @+ a5 c$ ~% ?

) S, l) k, X8 D6 s+ w2 [[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 4 `8 f. D) N  Q. C5 ~
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了6 _1 Z  V( _* w
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 Y) E2 ^  i. Y) ~6 n, W9 C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 J, D2 Z  G# F, K
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  d/ ^3 {, @5 u: Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: g- ^& }7 B; U) L; C. G
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 _/ j0 {& Y$ H4 q/ B1 k7 wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& u6 D# D% h" T' r+ u! {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 r3 Z' H( s/ {2 D+ mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% G% ^/ j! y; ~" w' Y3 U7 u# fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. X! f6 |7 t7 ]* |pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. C* N2 U1 G  r" z% `
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( F3 b, c( ?1 u& k0 z# i( s( ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, T4 T* O  R6 H# ]! t% w
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 ]; P4 Y" X$ \& ]; Gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
  |: h1 E- w  _, \! L8 g* B7 A* xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 ?& L7 [" o% B% U) N/ a4 l30,000 new households will form in the province during
. q: A5 \. k* T; z. D; l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 J) H/ a( ?& q& o0 m3 mEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 a* }/ X6 f& Q' ?6 V" Ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: E( x$ Z; b' Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 \" G9 T+ J6 D( |0 k* h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new6 q* r2 q0 m1 [6 I- M7 r9 \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals' h! i* w1 n" c/ Y
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 b, t) L7 d9 {* @+ t% F: `sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 K9 }' o2 g. ^. M$ N- n5 n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 v4 |1 ^( H8 w, V. _) ~! t
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 l7 o- X" d4 d+ B$ {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ ~1 v* b& c3 g" D! B- W5 T" @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# W( z$ }, c: T$ |/ C, xbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ c) }( a4 I8 j% \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
  W, Z; |. o; W$ L$ f+ runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 Q& r1 w4 J0 I$ I9 _: o, g* q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% F) P' I1 c# f! u
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ q3 U  i& N3 t! K8 @: S* X$ I9 N+ g/ J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: H4 u3 V7 M3 U, `& w) Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 z! S9 ]1 p& ]5 i7 e; T6 i( H
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  O( G  B- i; @' Arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" z$ C/ t/ }# p5 vThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 K- V3 W. {. s; o. y5 V0 Aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: h+ F' V9 \; J% t' p6 XAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
* Q0 j$ B/ S, J# \6 J, O& zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( M8 i6 m- ]* S; u/ A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ {2 t7 t3 }) |' j1 C
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even/ b- C: d! I; y+ e4 u( R
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 [) i9 C- ~9 eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: e$ e+ t+ L- r& s' M( i7 @3 lThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, |. Q( v" o" Q% S2 Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; c: S3 \2 J% l- F" N) c
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. g: {* n# o3 l4 V8 B) I, Xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 Y& h7 A& f% t2 Z* m; _6 Edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; ^" x7 B; O; c' r2 U' UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! ]& x. L/ y4 K2 f. H" S
leg down over 2009.
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- _# i* X, q0 Y, C5 ~7 g$ ]( j6 [! i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# ^+ s# Y, p7 c7 d# p# A& _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 1 Z$ `9 ]0 s$ [1 x, ^7 j  c8 P
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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/ W0 b6 L2 ]" T3 z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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