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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
! ^( r/ U$ S& f4 x* |. c$ [$ xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 Z' U3 d! a: I& z% Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 m% h: D v3 c0 \$ I1 Xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ z2 `- g' S z9 h) }; G* Z& i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
m# D( z+ F) F: Pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 H% Q K& z) p Y, Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
p; d. e( R# \. ~" Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 M: [# x2 s( c) _) T( k. c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' i3 \. M/ f# y" O+ ]; k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: c, H0 D1 B# Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 L9 ^0 n' l4 f- C, d* {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# b1 Y' K! `: J( ?' ]6 r: y& A
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ ^. M2 _9 C4 t8 \) R9 f& Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 Q$ v1 c" W) K' h3 Z, @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- W3 R5 Q1 r, |- G$ u5 F" h30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ v: j! i# ?' f1 w0 X8 h2 V- i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( B$ u" a) J2 [' o5 ]Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 G& h9 _5 i) [% Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 m, C& q. _+ r" v4 e- Jduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 V6 b7 g6 W$ q K9 C! W |
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ v, \8 b8 \ r* m* Uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 O# q. x1 i+ vduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 X4 _. ?2 u2 V9 R6 v* C; _sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories t6 h% x2 N/ i/ ^
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 B/ S$ d6 s, o1 e- l8 p: s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
J0 C5 e6 m( {2 O, o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 X' R% Q* c* {7 e0 Fsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 P {* s. Y, }0 ]* Q+ }3 z( g% Ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" L+ a* V! J s6 ~ y3 @' htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- I& z1 w1 h% D, \7 Q4 L! B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 C" V' u8 X2 P1 Eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! ]+ ?' _6 {' X8 B5 F3 Arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
3 `: g! I" X5 fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 O. S* e- R* E% y- K: }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" ^, w, T4 o$ i6 t4 e l
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- ?- T" w6 w7 Y7 {% C/ j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* i, d, M3 W, w1 lThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 Q: L% t4 b) Z* }) m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- ~- U5 ?+ Y0 H2 j- q# p8 I5 }Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( k! c1 r/ P/ |7 o1 K5 ~housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) M' a) M5 N* t( hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) q: ]' b/ c+ _, g. j
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. d# t) R. J5 O7 D1 U, j6 wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& B* A8 K2 w: D2 y, [# r! e$ `, f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.: c; W7 d7 g" `& }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. s- n' x V* o/ S; c/ [4 nresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. C4 e7 l! @ |' iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 N$ V9 w0 g4 M; ^1 i1 w$ p4 Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
?6 {( {3 g0 F/ Udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. c7 P& ~( x5 d ]1 w; |9 ~1 {$ _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 e [4 {5 T2 F( K& Zleg down over 2009.$ e# F$ \- {9 i) j! s0 n& ?, f
# O. c, ]7 p! q: W2 s# _; Z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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