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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
& C% |7 y4 A/ bWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; R! X$ w# g) jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 k \* G- D% Q/ ^' A. o) t* D
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 {1 x& l* r/ e" K' _6 i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 ^/ y- @* o0 Z8 H8 r0 R( H0 \
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
' o; X1 O/ q# Rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- [) Y# k/ ]6 |9 D" j- C
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 h! ?9 b- c9 b$ q8 |! U* ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous; }4 k& F0 Z- W! ]5 G* k6 o% w0 O( @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' w8 [0 _) `! \% wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% w3 u+ H' b8 ]; Jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( e2 T+ C# _2 H6 t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 w4 t: e9 k' j8 Ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ T) x; i3 B5 c+ _4 |7 ]homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! i6 Y! ^2 N" U- X
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& k! v: B1 {" u5 z1 {4 K2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 Q; j& P, x0 G) D+ i8 Z3 a& wEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# N7 }, T" M0 O" uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%9 v2 @! S0 o6 f5 {, L7 X; K
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 w& y1 K) |/ |7 A- M% e4 Q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, c/ K& d% M: R. r! X0 q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! q' j& }- B, Y M# a8 K4 @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 C' V: C/ V, y* j5 p% H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 q% W: l+ V0 m5 J1 Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( c# c( o0 L, g. gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 v. U) R' Z! |2 `5 ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 f2 A# T" p1 p6 B t x
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 P# X d) q% {6 N3 q4 wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in" c s3 J% [* h& P
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 H8 k0 T& i8 N8 z9 f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 ]: S/ w) c u& H, E6 Dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) S/ c( P# H' m! r
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, @: h- ?6 ~ M1 ~: Q1 presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. m: r% d: O* O( Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# N2 l8 [) o* F! E/ J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 O" K7 m( G/ s; x. e& Hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% r' r1 B! t' K4 dThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 m& S. i9 w. f! S+ u
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 o' g0 @5 f1 q% z7 _) q& A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 l8 r+ Y) ]' Q9 k; R" X8 t6 ]( jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 y- K5 B& R' y( ?; u9 G
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. h$ z! p4 l) ]5 j# M' C- T
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even( N- @1 u2 |; r( l
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ @" d7 L; U; s7 R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 {1 Z! z; M( N# z8 l; RThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ j- r0 H7 D4 e) o
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 M% w5 g0 b1 r5 E% I
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 R7 }7 s1 Q0 _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* _" g1 m; {; D" w' n: m. C, Ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 o* J1 t1 B m4 I! iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* m: n9 e, j3 e" u$ \
leg down over 2009.
' n& E7 U1 H8 z& V1 t; I1 n* r9 L3 e% y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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