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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
* j3 w6 V! _; l4 Z! GWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! K7 b$ U+ M/ f
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' N5 R% T6 f# m! Y G" F% c% Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: ^ `. z; A8 c" r6 r2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 \; ?( L; |7 w+ e; Z$ Bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! c4 t# X( z/ \1 G. Y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! X! X% e, a3 o/ t
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' u2 H& U) f0 m9 Z; m# r, W7 e
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ D; r9 ~: [( w' W+ fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# K. ^4 O7 D$ R8 Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ e2 Z L. F1 u* l1 P5 }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year q6 i' H: k1 ?
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ d/ R8 l) G$ h
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ v: m/ ] J. Z$ i, E2 U
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; k* m1 O1 _# x* o& \
30,000 new households will form in the province during& e. f4 w8 C, L( s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 b& ^; K: h- ?2 N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 O' w; h$ B8 \: P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- q! \5 I7 j2 {) F2 _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ x8 b0 p7 b2 I; |# l' L) c
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new |' X( M- L7 {% E) _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 z, \1 ]7 \1 t' V) B6 D
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 t$ {+ b) s* `8 x: f n- q9 ]sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 p$ X. K* \3 Z+ o- c% bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% }0 l5 Q5 |+ Y" y' b0 F* a
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( U9 f6 W" b; R& x. a3 {7 b7 g9 t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 W w& F+ S; ?- U0 i' O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 N' y: A# U; x3 wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 U: z- Z$ K! S* l Y: t# Vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: _# _! |; v" @* q! eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. `5 e2 V& g4 N% k: T! ?3 w Kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ @ i4 x. i' e. Y6 e( ]" k
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 @2 `6 Y4 d4 J4 Q& Tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ y. P3 n, W3 |3 W+ \major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( v- h, L! \1 W- |% r8 v& `. q. V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled# T3 Y3 k+ L, I I4 Q$ ^
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: [0 \8 o" d6 Q+ Y/ g* X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% g5 l% m6 X G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 C* K' ?% w- E" g: JAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan' P# @' {6 g. ], Q% d! R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; B. U0 g1 ]0 \' h4 l# H8 |+ ^! ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 U( }+ b; f( t. Lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) k' ~* X3 U5 L% u: r" y. m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 v7 q2 e. B/ J# M5 t) @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) I3 [: y3 K3 W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: u' c" x% m8 m% p3 _resale price in February is evidence that past prices- R1 V5 L- J6 L( R* c6 o1 f) u, W
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# }; R3 {) | y5 E6 _5 b Z# c6 O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’/ F' W( [. v, D
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* u' e# R/ {/ _+ H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, \' g; h y6 }! u; hleg down over 2009.+ Y$ ]3 x( z, \" N" }' C
. v- K# D4 b9 m; _% I2 R8 w3 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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