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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 D% g$ |. {; W- t* @. LWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
k* x# s- H' l' j4 rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 m \: X* }2 ~3 J$ R3 s5 v
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 O) L* s) j6 h/ x' T" O+ Y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 v- F' ^) i- O4 T# M2 g) O
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: w3 R: Y8 Q2 C; w0 U& t
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 I( D" [7 V' [9 u0 ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ W; A }( G0 [) }8 H, i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
) z; I3 f! Q( Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 c% M/ X* G: B9 H7 wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 r5 A! ?! y1 r8 e- H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ Y) \- A* u& n9 d6 y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 y( ], Z& z4 {4 ?% [( Y( j" _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ O5 s0 w8 H$ r/ e: X8 Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 i9 \' R) ^" F3 e8 |30,000 new households will form in the province during
g4 t+ M* Q. H5 Y" `" i# ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 [+ l; V$ n, T
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) Z/ @. [0 M' D& nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 [" E0 V9 t- h$ r4 a" V
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
D3 I$ j+ [& M& bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
B$ @0 c) c) _1 Phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: L$ Z6 Z1 w) s. w: |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. N6 |& w# J. Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 O( b0 O: L5 L8 G, e: @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: k' ]& Q9 J* }; g& w, k' I
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! {: [7 u) U% F1 [1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ o; r4 _% i# N, } _) j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 ^; I @$ \% [; ~' q3 D0 L9 O
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 n# g9 F) R0 n6 Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 F5 I% o2 q) b5 T7 _/ s! _
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 M3 g9 ]' A+ }9 N7 @unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 f+ N0 B2 C# V8 z) e: U8 D+ Drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& h# o' Q4 b5 K" Q+ v) W( Oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 ]9 T: O0 g1 e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# }3 S Q6 O1 I' m2 H1 Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled* p# W1 M0 t; B8 K" B3 R- W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.3 \" [1 N+ I* Q3 l! `5 h7 B
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ \% x8 o ?' I d) Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 I% G: S( m8 A& C5 h' c4 ZAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan1 x9 `) Z! C6 m9 Q$ R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" E# G' {: `; j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( f* o6 R% L% t, |3 Z$ [9 q! }prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 F- R' l" o4 O. w- o
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! |; ]( E$ g" e% Z3 e* Aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 G J2 z# |* LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! ]) F) h0 e4 D& @% y2 z( l: f
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& c2 q2 d& V+ o4 S' i' m5 sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! D9 u7 I6 E$ O* c
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; R: `& z) _1 W: B& S6 [1 o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% g1 J3 ` c* c. @$ aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ K5 `. h- ~# s9 }; ~
leg down over 2009.5 l; F. n \! r- w, E* j
8 C1 n* B( C. r r- ~4 e* ?6 a
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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