埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1775|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
: Y' E* e% `2 z! B2 ~- H# O
+ F# j& R9 c/ \! ^+ L6 o1 Y2 GTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
  F; Y' D4 N/ P' @4 [' }: G3 h3 Q
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ' F2 B; a0 N2 R* G
7 C. H3 l' P  D$ u
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
: g# G- o0 p# a3 b3 P5 @3 K4 O5 i. [) i, t
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.3 W! U2 f" Y6 Q: b9 o

# r  q. I" j0 a+ |1 a2 h+ Q5 VTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 Z) I9 c: A- Z; u9 A% g" ~
  v( i/ L  j0 M3 H
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
& u$ y) _' s0 C4 _1 p) ?. J2 \2 J' |6 T+ P6 v
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
6 r. _, Z+ t8 B5 R7 d2 ]; t+ H- f
; P/ q" X7 E  g% v7 F9 I4 AMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
/ F* c: D% [2 X/ q  S/ T  P# n
8 i3 b5 E4 _  f, ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
3 @, F& ]9 m: m* ~) n
2 \% {6 K6 H1 m# i/ Q
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
  x! q" ~4 \# }$ c! M0 {5 |1 v( |$ J2 `4 Z# K  u; [, G
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
+ r; z! R1 v; M4 D 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。/ c$ o- F$ G" Q: S  q
* [+ D8 M4 W: Z7 M# E. H6 ^
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 3 A; A- ?% |+ V& D
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
. \5 J. \( N3 G4 }! _  B* w- h
很多人都回学校深造去了
5 a5 f' H- _, c. X: {嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
! x& N' s) @) u+ Y$ {/ yWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! |+ P' }( E+ yboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. w8 s: b; K% b! n9 hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 q- M0 G9 E3 `/ P1 h) B2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
  H9 {2 y, z0 [. X1 l' `formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' w! D2 g; ^8 K2 x8 u
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( A: b  x" c) ^* P4 V9 r2 Z  \* l* fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ ~9 ~- I5 [1 ]1 bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 Y. E8 m% f; z7 B, R/ rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. d/ m! z4 C& ~2 Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, _( c: d5 c* R+ j: R9 \; Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ e, r/ T& K; D1 b# Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 @  `+ d* B5 z0 Q3 x6 E/ ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
3 P3 u8 K0 O; ~! zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
0 [* i# s3 T& [% m30,000 new households will form in the province during6 y, |/ h( Y7 s& [; T' z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  H5 a! E: }  B1 Y# S4 FEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ g* b" I* @$ |/ v9 E& j. x! m9 Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  t5 k7 _% p% ]8 _' u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& h5 P7 H1 V+ O  G' v- D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( ~) O; ~( x* c% z- Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ m& f0 o9 _! [9 Bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# N2 [/ v7 ~9 q' C$ T6 y; csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* ]. e7 p" A: C! a
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
  H& `( y+ M9 v. Q- e5 _  Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 k( v6 x. _9 [% n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, d; D% x0 R, H0 [sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 \* }2 K$ f9 z% J9 k6 J& Z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* o# h5 t& t. `5 e( \" o% ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; a" {: Z3 {* b9 F- d2 f6 p/ V7 ^7 funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 V+ ]6 S4 X; N4 O; s0 G$ g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 @- q# V1 L8 a9 c6 Precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  ?1 X. F9 p9 K# dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ Y" J7 F0 C$ V+ {3 d7 d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) |/ ]! Z" F- N( d0 Y  H
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' l/ \2 B% z: h4 G+ E/ v
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% z" K# Q9 M* H& W/ d; hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: v* G# `% [- o# I# U8 G* Q9 U
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% M, R5 i$ O' h" j7 N) q, V
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
' Y8 W; a, L. }5 K/ D5 Lhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' p  ~% I1 I+ ^5 s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- r  X9 I! b& \( a5 N; ^prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ \. S% k/ p2 z) r7 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( v) L* S  P* A" O( h; uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' i* `  A2 G8 h5 }7 ~The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) ~. E+ J, j/ J5 `
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, C  x5 O. L! g! [' M, V$ c8 b
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 [0 |3 {* i" z4 \5 p$ mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 l6 u$ E( o- ?0 b8 {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) c4 x' c& y  k# D- d  l5 LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 p9 W# ^5 h+ N8 _) q6 `leg down over 2009.
; W9 L8 B' E; F" E1 X5 l2 K/ i
  R8 A% f# \8 v# s8 y. }7 {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 f$ U* Y7 N/ N0 WAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

" A. \+ A9 u% _# W) k; W# P/ k1 c! [. {6 H' e( z/ K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. " A. W' e3 n% `. G5 y
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子, v# L7 ^' r0 U2 V/ U

* U4 B* V, p" L- {# Fhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
2 q9 n* b6 ~2 O4 A" \3 t. x
- ^4 _* U$ R/ V! }3 K! N4 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2025-12-22 22:12 , Processed in 0.234234 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表