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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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1 I# j; E* u5 J+ j% xTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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, U3 |0 w) X* ]! T1 C1 u1 p2 H' jThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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% S) [: ?/ d& t; f  Q, f"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.2 v: Q  G1 ~( `9 J7 M$ [+ M

8 s$ q$ n& ~, `/ n0 P% l/ s. x7 NTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.. N$ Q) T$ \# s8 R! L

! I( ~$ E" c( ~0 i+ G+ ]9 BMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 2 W4 g! a9 u0 _6 ~4 a

( ~0 E. d: n; ~# fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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3 \$ I0 M" \1 ~) C' Y* M3 W- }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; F& }$ h2 v5 c6 f- p
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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: A- c0 O9 O9 i. @[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + D7 n- f2 A2 Q; a
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( v, l8 x* Q+ V" s7 n" i很多人都回学校深造去了
1 g7 w- u4 \% A2 P嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
& e8 M) v  u( z9 y5 T& R- P* FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' p6 o# p' u* p
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' M8 R5 n% |' Z9 \: `# U# yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 M4 J8 V' \4 a/ i" F, \2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 @" t7 a& q! c% a* L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. S5 }1 @; N) V5 w2 [! h6 p9 A4 Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 @4 B9 E: d3 S; O! Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- G2 Z8 R- r+ K; N8 Q' _+ b3 e, }may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" I( z; l0 Z# Mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! z: {. @# T/ i8 |& I  Y8 Q0 e
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 h" p! h6 Q' Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 a2 Y- i: S6 {; v; ]5 d, ?; ?prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 {: Y# S% v3 v6 M, U! N) C
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 P2 N. C8 e) x& ~* O2 I4 Yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& _0 }/ Q0 n% f1 _* A- w" O
30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 `5 S3 S* C2 S6 W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 Q# q* v: T7 z; t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 O. o  Z4 L4 }/ g, ^. [2 Q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( k0 B$ V( i" y. e6 l
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 M8 n; k& Y! K- z" K. B/ \, T- k
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% ^2 N; a! I1 l/ X
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ r0 Q9 y2 q& q0 b8 }+ x7 Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 ~  o3 ^' T0 M2 q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 P# {4 @7 Q8 j' N  R+ r$ G1 fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is( w$ |6 E- v5 C, Y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! J8 }% B/ ]0 Q8 O2 ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, S) V/ D5 a7 {% i. F6 Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; G2 I7 v; j% L2 G# l  R+ Y, H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 b4 {- ~1 B2 G2 h7 @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 a: v5 z- I# b. N! I" }" Runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 }) _3 a% T5 Tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 [& f# Z8 h5 {- a5 h+ Z# p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ ]0 G; t8 J- ?1 ?' U; H4 d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 r3 F, Z6 f* s+ g0 z0 V. jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 U- u$ t( v+ |. L& ]
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 _" [" m  B: W  u9 Y  j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& `" I8 |' Y: m9 w5 z; b6 w- I' HThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 P7 T- L7 }! x4 }1 I' F/ H; C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# ?5 |; s: M- g3 d6 LAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 g0 R* h% y/ C; H7 q+ Z/ ?. \housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, b$ w( C9 Y& g3 L. z* L6 q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 R7 n" g  u. l, S, H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# q/ y" ^3 }1 H' L7 J
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ A3 M, `7 j8 d! d' n3 P; J+ x( W
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 R6 y* l2 H" r( w2 a
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ S/ p! |" k( X% wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
  A6 }* [$ e$ D1 B* _' I8 ~2 yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& G6 Y/ Y4 |5 g! ]# c% R+ k! x3 k. Zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, w9 G  |' G. h: R. j; ~4 \% O
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( l. G, X( e6 p: k  D+ F4 `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
4 `& R: I' N' }leg down over 2009.4 c2 n+ }5 g7 }3 ]& A$ v) [" {( d

+ n; l' @/ ?8 u: a& a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. `' O# i* ?! N7 @, k$ w4 T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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  @( f# o( L- R4 X' A% c) O9 X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 9 q; W# c3 @) z2 T7 y4 P2 N( b
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- r5 U) u: m, y& |' h- S
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments% o% e4 i' ?) n% i( U
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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