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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 h6 w% j: G4 ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 { w1 v: b6 W$ j( f- aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, O, e6 N5 q' L0 c' ~
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! u+ [& a. o& l8 }. P
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ ]7 _- n- Y6 D" {7 i0 Rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* E# V% J/ C5 j6 ?5 L
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ s" C5 H0 H3 X# O" r
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ p3 z% o1 c+ B+ G
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. p$ X$ Q, l1 `8 b* S! T5 o e3 Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. O- l1 G4 k4 x8 K' A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 k7 c2 k0 Z9 [$ _1 c5 y4 {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 _* ]9 p1 U: ?* w/ I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ Q( c5 B }* y' W
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 u* `- o2 P; z& C8 H- t9 s
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 n" E+ K" ]' U! q
30,000 new households will form in the province during: R/ J1 J& ]1 j+ }, ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) C( F5 D1 a' T+ q" p1 D5 R2 M# fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 U0 f! L1 {3 U u& p; y6 [6 Q4 W8 |
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& Y' V5 P P+ s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! t3 R. U/ [- j% X( I) C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. ?& L" b: l$ D- S! L
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 |2 i. y3 f" j+ C3 T5 o7 ^
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& I- s% B$ |' d: B2 D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ n. d5 k' Z$ q+ j4 S, p! D1 ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 y4 C3 ~; \6 Q1 p% Q, Kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& m8 F6 k% O, N* U# A
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 \7 l8 L, X6 C2 m: i6 k+ d
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 V+ ^# D) c3 K3 m# m X' e
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 e f3 I# A B% t8 Y" a# K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in h4 X' L& p" a: I! b
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' l; h* y/ K" u+ k& Q Xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! I b: L/ c4 z# G G5 a, G
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, _5 e5 u' t8 W/ L% a l7 W5 oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 s6 ^, ]$ ^ v* \: J# L! }! C
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 W+ a# l* J: E2 s4 X; ~9 o1 N
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ Z! \1 Z1 M" E$ H% _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: o( D3 `+ i- W' U9 B3 a3 Z' TThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. c$ F, o( Q/ r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 K) W6 z( W) O/ R! Q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan }; T/ E1 T0 |, {/ b" e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% l% y, R8 V2 J$ q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& K7 f; X' k E6 ^& tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even# {9 C9 G1 G2 U7 _0 b$ i" r
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# ^6 i$ l2 K. |- L5 Y2 t6 _+ s5 \4 Ion average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% A7 g {: R! }; N2 u5 E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 i* B. {5 U0 L" a V$ Eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 Q# L z- h( w$ {4 c" Xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ D# ]2 m- r$ j' |1 zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& U. P1 p/ o8 h% W$ r) H
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 \! w) s! E M) g$ G7 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 g4 |) x$ i0 A/ O& H; e. ?4 ]leg down over 2009.
6 D! n0 q3 s% Y
; \" l2 f0 _3 R& G: i& Q) ?9 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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