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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 R% C. @9 k, h3 S4 t' rWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& ?& r/ y! r0 l/ X& vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& N( b* U9 @2 N( r9 ]1 e, R) T ~/ G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 X& ^7 m4 [6 v% l4 @$ F& j- A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: \, i+ K* ?1 n5 B* k1 c
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 c+ C0 n; K6 Y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 s# w4 |5 n) x0 X g) ~the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( O6 g8 {% _1 C0 @: Z" P
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 ?2 j" }# {/ W6 p
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' ]8 b5 d1 x( d6 W7 Q/ G% {$ \
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 W0 K6 z# E. B; g4 w- w$ w8 Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* H! N9 F5 ~, z+ s% _) I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 D- m) p( p% Z+ r! o$ p& ^( p& p$ gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
% t7 G6 e' E2 U, c% Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- H( q' e, F h. C
30,000 new households will form in the province during* o h" y r+ Z2 }
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% M Q. U6 t. B( k5 [* K. x% y" a
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( N! w. Q- Z( ~ @, ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& N, p/ h# a" O1 Z6 v8 C7 _2 Qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ i6 M/ H: Z" x- w/ n3 B; [
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ ?/ N. N$ f; X0 }
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, g3 S; _- i0 W' s+ Eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& Y1 e: l( h/ L; `( t
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 _ t2 F' T9 X4 Lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% Y% k/ P( a4 Dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: H4 g9 t' ?9 e
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 s+ I# ~% A* ?% \# j/ K; D# N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 g0 _- p9 i/ hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 e% l; |! j3 ^
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 e) R( J, {* A5 s8 t. N; yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' d8 I1 a3 n0 Z% U% _' Q& ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 J. L2 b+ H: y! i# n) A, o4 a# \
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# ^- L/ ~" ~- i: ], Oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 U' Q4 p' X& ~major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
: B* Q3 T7 \5 `of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. _6 Q: K. g5 F& |8 T8 o. V4 s& D
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 ]- }! a5 X( C9 s3 }+ [
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 Q' j+ V5 e4 _' H2 d9 G1 w- Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% f7 r4 t. K" i5 q& P$ s) q9 I
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 s4 ~5 j: ?* T Z$ @" N+ `' jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' T1 H3 e# U) p- }" L. ~# Irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; @% N) d- v& M, j Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even: b) y3 C' C- i! i
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ u- p- N l" |& o
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 c5 G+ S& k: p. }1 T$ ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; @( Q- ~ Z; S) E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 c! h! s O8 s, Y- X# fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ I7 H: ], I, X( J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( e8 |' R) i# z) V1 Xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ b) `$ p3 v! u9 _4 HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 w& ~ `$ j4 v9 a( a# `2 B1 b6 s
leg down over 2009.
; ~7 r! U' A- g) ^9 T" @* u& j, G- d$ ?# z& _* ^2 X' Y! t
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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