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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." y5 Q- N/ z/ h, G0 |
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : ^4 P6 f1 Y7 }
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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, r+ q# y1 a0 w5 P"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 v4 M% \! x- O+ {" \# O

: v+ F1 {5 [7 W! w! e2 L7 aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- u/ D9 F3 f+ l9 R! l* |7 y# sMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ i9 s% P. r4 I$ n3 {5 }; k

* ]* K1 z7 O+ ^  Vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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# h6 r# e: B; n$ I: y) @! b9 ~4 iTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: |) w* E8 Y  N

  _5 Z4 Z9 E/ T0 M( i/ N[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。  L. g6 p( A1 n; G
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( S( Q- v; d1 W5 R9 ]- e3 W
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ( f& a2 W4 I6 Q( m+ x/ \
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
& s8 u9 v! g$ u& R. x" _嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- \+ c: r6 m/ S3 ?  G
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" S& \' u) u  K$ K6 v& K& oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 @2 X' v% Z3 |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 ?2 M9 S' m; S/ J, S% g! u* v
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% f) R1 _5 p) [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: @5 V; z4 I  N  b
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- d6 D/ p( i. k8 k+ q. ]' q3 o* S5 Xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 F5 W( p# }# Z- e
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 [1 K" T1 L1 b) ^pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% L% ^4 S, P& U2 D' H+ L# n2 Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 m6 m* l8 q9 O* ?5 }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
" u0 G! J: z0 h: _# Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 _; B  N/ o6 r# D' W# F+ z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ z- H6 i! {6 ]9 F  H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  W  k" |, K$ f: N# Y  I9 L7 [4 d
30,000 new households will form in the province during
% L: t" j0 o$ x- Z: W! y3 l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 S$ p( {- V( |' EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" H" L! g: F* f  k$ B# |3 U) p  k
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& \7 `" Z2 b! ~3 s/ u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  S/ K0 ?$ l2 E- ^# ~7 P+ T/ ~: A
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 C  H2 [: ^  v5 Ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; |8 @% q# z# `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ a9 E% [3 d) `8 C8 {4 w  P
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) l. J% y, }" o8 y. W1 T' V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& l* X! ?  p# u. V$ o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. L# X9 A# k1 r6 d2 Z  d2 y9 a
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! [+ x1 |, T7 k7 a; `, Y1 t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 a4 N! `/ ^3 X) j$ nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ U7 C* R8 |$ \+ h: K% {two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! S' L" W& I9 L7 Z5 s
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 I& T2 f; m& x3 c  R
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' s: |3 s2 h1 W: |5 n! L( urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' V/ Y& }) ^0 D  Presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- h  |" f3 X, l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% U- ^; A6 u- C) |5 G) @. Lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 G- q. o# h+ P# ], n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 t8 L% @' g1 Y' B* E
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 ?& D. r6 Q4 T! _* Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 B! h) a; W+ \' m# m' S: _* `3 w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* {/ z4 S/ X. P( ~- N
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# J9 a* y, b: |2 F5 }: T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( C, ]8 e( k4 m! C
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' T/ `0 u+ E& m% j1 c& ]( g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 q7 ~) Y+ A  c. e7 H; `. ~4 gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' e) j' ]: `! n0 C  N" b- T) z! \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' k! M+ u0 ~4 j1 ?7 `resale price in February is evidence that past prices5 t5 B. y3 H/ {: j; _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* T. ]" K4 [  Q7 n3 H1 G  T% L( fhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ B' Z! [4 r9 X; X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% N- J8 {" l+ _* R3 tAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! z' S, u3 m8 |" Tleg down over 2009.
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- q! C3 _3 `" p- r4 o. U3 c* C/ E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 Y; v" c' r. C; ~# q; k. i0 B1 [$ hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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) [5 }( b% l& \4 o- Z9 V9 m( e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. + P+ @5 i# y9 v0 c2 s, `
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 U# ~! q0 N+ I0 {

& _# P* W7 s9 |% F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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