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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 4 n* t  n' C& J- ?; a4 [5 v

/ m- H8 e# P/ P- AThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 N! r; [2 U% ~2 Q
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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- b1 n9 N' c+ Q0 |' P  h8 M, ]Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.: i* v1 C  C, ~$ U7 m
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- ]7 b/ V) W7 W3 O
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ! ]9 M) R' E: q0 c3 N
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 3 `6 T4 M0 ^2 [, I+ n) u
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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" l- T8 P! t( T  Q$ ?[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; b4 g, S9 c# g+ }' E
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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8 }# _2 z* a" K5 G; a$ L) }[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  d3 G1 H3 o3 Z$ x. r$ U; m跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了. J' o" X! O$ ~2 N: B
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
' p! k8 ^) t5 N' `Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 t# l# b, x3 e3 }( h' w
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ j4 }& H% k/ h+ T2 E
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 d! U1 Q" f1 y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* L/ e# m% c) ]8 Q2 s5 k2 Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 @( X) }/ r% {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 m0 I" x) B6 W' y& othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 F/ O0 B2 i; R; M6 F" V' Wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 t, S; v$ o5 u
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- Z6 m1 r  @' S5 l6 J3 e, lprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined  h# V0 ?4 [( F4 _: K' K, H, i
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# K, G. ^- W4 Gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* g6 x  b1 |9 G. I
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 |2 Q" v! |( v7 G# i# J
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 ~" h7 I8 U# z; I30,000 new households will form in the province during( ?8 J7 l2 S1 m# l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; @8 k: {( J1 ^4 }  J/ u
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 B" I2 f: f. _( I' Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ N7 v( `4 D- X- |
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ f& D" P# P5 e4 |
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 @$ G3 H' X; ?  M$ A, m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 r) X) O* Q% f' |during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% @' V( g& c& O5 `" o# a: d
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, S  h. |# J& V6 N3 g- cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# d$ N0 o. T' ?% \- E& Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) N) K  s; ]: a; p+ y* Y8 O# m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 v4 x0 A! \2 Q3 B
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 f$ v9 i( L8 h  u, C& F& abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 t; y# j6 |  H# @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 \* ~, b8 @1 s/ J9 A; \% Hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 T! O+ X* H. I
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 e1 `: I* Q7 N( w+ \% i- Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 j7 y4 G# c& Z% ^1 m( E: sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) ?& g$ {: \# d5 u; b% `major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
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+ F7 \1 `8 t) V2 p- g9 m3 {rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% }  `9 h2 g( e5 ~+ X4 R3 N
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 P: i9 n( [" _
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; A, Z% _4 d, J/ z4 }. |( c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan' j% ~( x( X0 u# f' m
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. n( r* `7 y# H' `
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# N) b  T( }% t. W- jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& z7 |$ V  r# o3 `; m& Y( `9 Athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ n/ e( H+ v& m  l. A; Ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! `4 ]: m$ ]. v, @- ]! N; L) h2 S9 r! pThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
9 w9 M6 z' d: G/ H) a7 T$ u% wresale price in February is evidence that past prices7 ^4 K* Z- G( X7 N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 p% [' g- U* j* y7 B4 ?& Bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 `' I4 s8 ~4 D+ E+ mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) c: I) K$ v8 u) ^3 B' X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: I/ _# A) h; {- Q6 R
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% r) ^. g( v" O: i3 ]1 j5 gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. " J/ E# E- w$ L5 K
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 U9 y6 l$ A; O& j, Z
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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