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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ E2 v7 ^; h0 C6 _/ a: ^7 oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! ~$ d% k# K9 F& Y+ i: x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' f$ N0 t/ A: A @) V( uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, L" f1 N) H% W: n
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; H6 q* n6 O* t0 l2 q2 b+ |formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
3 a8 P1 l" t) p2 yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 I% V5 V# b7 N' _6 m, y. C! \
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' |. J" H U& G# q: t; h% I- pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous A4 `' e* U1 L/ M
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ {: \; ?' {4 N3 eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 n, _4 g+ j. G0 Q# G5 R8 B1 Z. ]: pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 K' l& s7 i# w& l$ N$ |
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. ]. P: M3 u8 Z4 p" Kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* J( K; b" a0 n* |homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; F4 U; @! W d; A0 P
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, y# ]) ^& F3 n5 c) b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 S# y i# ]3 `. f7 d! c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 B. U3 |* Y% g1 e6 f6 [$ @" _" Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: L/ X3 o* i5 uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; R# D8 q% ]& L6 m$ V* ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 O3 e2 D# e) x" G0 uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 ~* x# N6 H& C& c5 p* Y+ J
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ l" G+ @9 H! ?+ p3 Osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' ^4 t& d% O6 _. ]$ }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 r4 H: t3 L' } t; q! ^: ^2 sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 j9 Y& ]! A% r9 U1 f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 y! H% H, e( ^7 N5 D/ isales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 z# H" ]( Z/ rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, f. S% ^8 N+ j" p3 r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! X' w- ^2 ?* s5 h7 N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ c6 y( p4 Q8 @2 Yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% f* P7 j( W7 l: f- d* m. Srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* u5 o3 c5 i# M' Q' p9 Mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 H3 Q1 h2 i: N \+ @& |major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 J0 Q6 [- R% Eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 _! Q" C" a8 K% H8 rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ d; m, M6 L* E) ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
_3 M# v$ F# l+ T: J& V' i3 R4 p5 ?boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 X" y. ?3 X- S: z7 j" w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- {1 r4 J0 S0 ~housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' P: p% d+ u/ B* \7 Z! l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" u/ Q3 r2 n) V2 _7 J. ^
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 x! B* e9 [/ L* h athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& m$ S2 z& \( |3 n) L
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) c+ i: f0 v$ t: X
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ C( g7 D# T. d2 O$ B, H. Yresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 T1 X, l$ q( L9 Z* ^# D* x" Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! K& M9 @" b- y/ m" O; N$ U6 vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) a$ p# j& ^) f5 L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ g5 H. r. g7 _) P8 T% S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% J" ~$ y. F7 E
leg down over 2009.
! ?' w5 O% I, ` W9 c8 C- B) c+ z3 I* }& @( J Z& i* a* s1 ?
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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