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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 y$ a. t5 Y# ^2 ?7 [
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 7 T& u% ?) ?" c$ y: e0 u7 J
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. - Q' x4 W1 N% Y0 H/ k) ?' C7 n

7 {. s% p9 ~" q. J# Q' f"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 J9 y  [, O8 a2 }( y

' f( K6 t0 }' a: \! f9 _4 s' xNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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  ]2 D. _" S6 s2 ]0 kTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) ]. E5 F, g1 l) s0 p
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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" ]6 a" G8 J2 s8 Z) `# H& ?TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.( d$ c4 d% E) [+ _

5 s/ a8 \: _; V- D! NMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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7 B( _% J' y7 q! a4 k5 aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。# l2 s7 L+ ^6 M
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。' W0 s7 J" {# Y7 i6 u- N) u* e

4 v0 h" M1 v8 N! c% r9 e8 k1 m[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 : `7 I1 Z+ z  m) @/ [; T& b
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了' L, V$ u# A* [" |
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) d0 W0 Z& R2 |8 c0 S  ^( DWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; i2 B+ ]4 E/ `3 q) x* Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" Y9 f: W& I+ ?6 ~$ ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ ?$ o, r% W% R3 S& T7 M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. X& s( Q2 t; x8 xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) L: p; }7 G* W0 y+ J- s' yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: Q& l: ]" D2 @! T+ c5 bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  p- N+ z( D1 H( v( ]5 Vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 g) U* ]5 b0 X* K! o+ h; I( u5 ?3 O- @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 U9 Y: W3 D- fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, S. w& Y" a* \( p0 {5 V/ H, r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. O8 e4 p8 i, X: P0 B9 I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ v; T- Z5 [3 I  `+ m- e  t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. `8 Y5 I" t# F- d  g: Vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
* F! e0 N3 x- P% N. j% b30,000 new households will form in the province during
. H% [; i. Q0 c9 e. B1 a, s5 P2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 o6 q( B. ~% r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; o$ Q8 o  l. @3 x* s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% n" z4 \# t5 F4 i! hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, c6 z8 `/ n" L, W
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 B2 K3 b) _- V) R8 ?5 k7 v8 ^- y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 o* t! k* w$ M& x5 U% F
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% U& J. O0 D' h+ r, L2 M6 ?2 Usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ W) e  P' L. I( i! }clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. J. M, c0 Z5 \( F+ h, X; o, sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ [$ t0 _8 |5 e6 O% C. b/ f% T' A
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' Y( E# i* t+ d. z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 _! L$ I, L# c5 ^0 S
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' W0 _: x/ ?2 }7 d* y+ i
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 z- ?8 }  F2 W' D5 ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 N2 t( U5 O6 D/ |& H2 Lunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ j$ Z+ s3 A8 E- p% _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 s% U3 I( S  J% g; q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- g0 D, t2 H- t! @; f# s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ q5 P" T6 `6 A  Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ R! ~0 g" n& H" r0 M  Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 C: P. T) }% E5 \
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 \' m% Y$ }4 M6 k
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 v0 ^7 W+ Z# l) r) C! X; GAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan& l6 i/ s, m3 o
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 U2 s& a, o" L/ o6 ?- ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 k/ k/ o2 \) _( _* V& k1 C
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 C+ j9 W, c# U$ l! L  v
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# d8 `1 f3 Y4 w7 z: v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 }, K$ {, ^+ ]0 h. g3 k* P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" q( G' c5 L) F6 _& H, e4 V# v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! Z2 A/ A$ K# i0 b/ Aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 u, k2 I+ Q! }) V* Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" e% u/ P" U4 j' c$ B% e. ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 G2 x5 o) g% i/ mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 n- {8 F5 N* u: i$ h% M
leg down over 2009.4 ?8 [$ \2 [9 S  K6 i& J+ Z

+ u  _8 }# E& G- l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 n' X. l' P5 e% S6 jAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
: r7 x! `, v% Z, i5 \7 o8 x翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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0 v, t0 G! r0 |3 i- B; t! Hhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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) A4 t; _) w3 p( n0 S  T& W0 ?: K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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