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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 A% h; `+ R. o" m7 y- t9 ^8 V
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
8 L7 R. X. e8 u3 O: P1 v+ S: Q) I" P. J' q3 I: `1 h
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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6 o+ G3 u7 M+ ^. l3 g5 t"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 G" f! ]; {# v, H
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' R- ^4 T; C2 k: P& f0 C
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( z$ s$ U, p" P2 o

0 Z, o4 x* x- S"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. " c5 q. E& r. _8 m" ?
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,* w+ e, J" {$ T, T) _1 p

4 T" ?  c0 R0 u* l" k) @; }6 W[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" g' A* T7 ?/ h) b 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
6 w. _, l7 @( x; e1 o# [& H- }跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

7 a; e+ [4 f7 J: U: v3 p- `很多人都回学校深造去了- ^( }6 Z$ m) W/ s' b) Q1 ^
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
; K) }/ U# h4 y5 gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 }4 @7 N+ t* ]* Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: G& A) @; c! y7 x  C5 K
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; w- K$ A+ l2 T1 U
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& [) q* u( o2 S8 e3 i" @
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 v7 F; G/ A: Y9 j
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' S5 l1 @5 z, ]9 D2 ^' A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. @- U( U2 E8 t- H& s% M9 G& }3 F8 L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. l( N$ Y" A. x) O7 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 ]" E3 w+ C7 u5 U) o9 m+ ]. n- iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 ?" ?/ C2 B7 Yto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
  _& X+ h1 z0 W; X( y0 Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. ?5 f' J4 Y3 ]& p
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. A8 R3 M5 K  J7 W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% k: N7 f5 U' f0 |9 l30,000 new households will form in the province during! s% D' @3 e' Q! K: w2 ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ N+ D# j  Z7 T  U/ A3 Q: o2 h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; m5 D1 \# P# ~& mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 _) V2 e- j2 l+ Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 V8 o( n1 q9 w: Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ E- O" q6 m# L. a* [5 n5 N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 F- B0 w7 ~3 j4 J- ~. N
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! Z  v3 O9 j9 N. h8 O* @3 Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ s  n' k9 Z% \  v- P  Y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 C  l" f9 \. `1 Y  D% p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* G  j% M9 k* u" @
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- |! e) y0 c7 }6 A) b
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* q8 I' R0 s/ A, [* u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ E6 T8 E- S5 r  b% t# H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 [7 J! x/ T  zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
2 D) X' h% @, G4 Iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 Z$ t6 {" x2 Q5 E' Z4 h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ Q' B; [( m, `7 [. E. @- x2 a
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! z2 T! `) s' C6 u  r/ bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 L3 w9 M2 l* m+ F( P" u
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; R$ q* C! v% F+ a% mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# X& w1 |7 j& b& YThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 n% s) ^/ [% O! ?8 z' Mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ ^5 W. d  m8 U- u+ K( X
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan  l  g2 n0 r9 T5 U1 @! M2 l) R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) [& h1 O  }$ B  \
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% r0 E8 h$ [$ E6 l8 g
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 m2 T  p0 B5 |+ J0 X! m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; \0 C  s( E1 `on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 n' f7 w4 C+ r/ [/ ~8 w
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& f1 D% d$ J# Z2 P2 M' @, V
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! h: o8 M) K, O3 n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ O5 t- o+ r5 H& @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, s/ g0 v. c- G/ e* p1 Y8 @8 ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' x# L. j' v- ]8 `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 y9 k# L* Y! S5 V; O5 K  ]
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* p  ?5 G& t1 R( \5 X, C* Z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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3 W( H# E% f$ p4 w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 V4 E# u4 t) w2 n4 s2 j0 N翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子) U+ r$ P9 o9 a8 m) U0 \
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments4 B: ^7 o: W4 B' n# F! A

4 K( F* o8 I+ B. S$ S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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