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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 }" N9 l" X8 X" v
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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" }$ y- |2 V) |( c; z, U5 ^The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 5 a6 i9 h* A& s& w& g2 R

5 V( V. [. G; P"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * X4 {/ O& x: [- d" p$ N
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ R, v; J. x; z( U! _* V; l
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 9 n0 N/ r7 h% {- X. R! r
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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1 I/ t' d$ _: |" W2 ahttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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0 h; q( P3 Y, `TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
, h( O; }- k' U  | 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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' ^8 [- T3 y9 r+ E6 G: }; D+ M[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 k4 `( |$ R) I2 o7 S9 t
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
  n; ~# d- n: L8 ~嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ I/ g. @; ?  J9 V% F* H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, K- ~' M7 ?6 G, o& r& ^2 ~& p4 O
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* d/ G$ W! [, b. @- v. f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 B8 d0 _) F; Z: t9 U2 t2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 `% n2 c5 m3 T- o- [, ~8 u% B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 H! \  `% u! f* A# ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ K) c& t9 t4 s! l/ G9 n) h5 ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ w/ a; C- x/ b1 {' d% J9 N1 H. z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 i3 `8 {3 q' B0 K! b* e4 L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 W& e2 g$ p% q2 B2 Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ h! G9 K6 d7 |9 @  E! x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# N" p, x  ?2 w  R/ w0 U" Iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& S- H5 c% a5 b+ c* Z1 I) q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 V# D5 Q, u9 a+ j/ O; I5 K' Phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
" C. R4 @5 H  n1 M2 m' R/ H30,000 new households will form in the province during
* k/ n6 ~% a; w8 N7 z. U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 ~3 s3 }" d, L3 G/ U6 x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 d' [- a2 D; `2 s* N7 u, Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
  p) M/ x1 h. |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 w  h; ]% I, S# X4 q( ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 B/ Z( m9 f& ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ o, f( V: s' n" [$ iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ o8 p4 w$ _+ b3 V+ ]: t- Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 W0 u! u, y; p- b- n( G& }/ V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( K0 `3 l$ F0 }1 Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: ~; F% E4 v6 h
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 Y  ?  |( H3 m. a' X9 Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  z4 E$ u* J( A+ u4 C: m& f
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: y: _& k8 M; ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; @6 C! y( N( ~" kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" Q1 j% z9 ^& s* I! K; q4 L4 Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! n7 w' [5 w% T. J
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& b- }, a7 i" q: m4 d; \! hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" z) r! `+ C( @! ^% H9 H* J) q+ Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: o4 w% u9 g2 L
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, B. P' w9 F, Y6 d3 o. e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 r, }) O! T! L4 ^9 }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 w& O0 T4 ~. a. m$ X" Z+ Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. W0 }2 N' f! _0 H( E4 eAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ \! E- y5 E/ m+ P! j" k# v
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: ?" q  E' r- `0 erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 j2 @: L: M+ u" M6 oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: s5 c+ B0 b2 f  K9 nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ C# S9 N- [% c% U: T! U# w+ T+ t
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 }3 |+ ]2 a& j
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 U2 Q: k- t7 c0 Z! s9 L  L- |/ r$ Nresale price in February is evidence that past prices* c, w$ a3 o* G6 e7 c
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% x2 r6 v' e$ U1 n$ P
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( B2 T: k: e' k# N. A1 \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 J5 ?4 c0 T# N& t0 f+ v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: j# K/ o% n* `
leg down over 2009.. F/ x' E) P/ g
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 f' i2 U+ h0 W# VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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8 }1 p- S* U! m4 Q# v) N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' O1 b8 o$ u, |/ h9 ?" v# U
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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) r: X2 w& n: F& Q( v. r. D[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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