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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% N4 R) F) h: K6 M- N

! a0 _, W3 m6 n6 S) ]TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ( S, p2 L3 W* V, H# L: k

$ c8 z$ o0 R. b+ bThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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& l- R- j8 ?# C2 J! Y0 s: i9 T9 f"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 7 M9 J0 A; A' N* R
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# C- F% c- C. t; i) B# Z' Z( R
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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8 P+ q* ]' B: r" K0 @"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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; m4 }8 }( Q, j! KTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
; U) Q: N. @# k" g 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 l1 ^7 p0 ^% ?# L! `6 g0 u
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
! D% \. m+ {. G) u嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- n5 a  J4 N( @  i/ M" P( fWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 X* Q6 {) Z, `- Y9 b  M' l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. L7 E( ]2 u; k" G- E: p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, z/ c8 v; i% e( a: j7 B5 J
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: B/ B; x3 @  ?) ?3 S* ?
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( V+ x- V! ?( D6 ?from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 L, t2 v$ Y: f- ^) V: L; f" E$ }the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ s1 w3 W, ]# m: ~: S( c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
4 J0 |& ]+ X* e& h1 ]5 J- zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. S, l6 _# K3 k. J- g% n
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ h0 f) G1 P6 @# u
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% C. |  i' A1 i+ P( M) W: ^/ Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, O2 ]6 z1 Q" Q; d8 J# V# v! B
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 A0 {9 T) X. ]- Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around( W% V6 J7 S8 D  |
30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 A# s: e( w- y( F, u: P( i( z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ X4 r8 v1 z* i" g$ W: k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 H: r) p! F# M4 Y, x1 K
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, L! x+ ?2 P7 dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' O1 n& {. }9 R( W; [- |has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 a# l% a4 m% n* p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. x- ?, R2 T* y/ L4 a# [1 f
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% X) \7 W' U; U% r7 Ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" r0 d1 @  \9 Q: j% Aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, W% W% r' Y) G2 P& p! y' u
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( i9 T. o$ S) k3 I) v+ ^1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 Q( ?% a% W$ I) ]  k3 v
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 B& O" x, r3 _0 a% ~( \* hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( ^! ]  K+ w8 j9 z9 |0 o1 P% y0 etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 K% a( I& |, [7 W( \: munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 F  n" `6 d5 u+ _7 Z- d( s
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ g" G, z" u3 g
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 k6 f4 g$ h) t2 W
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& o& L4 w! ?& w$ u# i/ }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, L$ k% z8 c6 m6 `# h6 \. ~7 [6 eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 o+ C! n; s2 X2 hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.  M2 ~, F7 x0 H# H6 j& W$ c; B
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. m! Y6 p2 ]7 K! P2 y& V9 f& M6 b- ~
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 ?6 \5 G) E. `" U: SAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan5 o9 \* S( ~  U, M+ B  c; G+ Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; @5 J9 |7 u. i) Z( X7 Jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- d0 i' @; N5 c5 P& J6 W$ m# S% i& pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ X: |9 [# n, p$ H1 k# }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ V& m3 R* D1 l0 [* Q5 Q- |* q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 V& x" t7 l1 r8 A* Z! I2 j, Y# C) LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; f0 s$ p" M+ ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices; L: R0 m* H. X, [6 N, w
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: u$ Y5 }1 e: _; S2 H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) E, F3 _# Q0 i
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% N5 P, }$ n% z: }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( y' _. T/ E7 T( xleg down over 2009.' N5 G7 j9 B* K, R9 S6 j2 ]" l
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 }6 s  h& s: o- W) M, p7 d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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& n$ a( }; k0 R3 A/ x0 [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ; Y: I9 V& O) w( r# v/ x
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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. R+ T7 ], W) p2 ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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