 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta H" H" H9 s5 e. s5 y; z. o; h" L
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 O) v2 K! e/ Z5 \1 E! \. q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& f: F* h% l% Y# w2 S) }. z5 H
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 L4 _2 P) T2 t2 n( j& r2 e
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) W9 K/ U. }. Y4 Z8 u8 G; N1 G" d; ]2 Y4 Oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided @, _ Y" o4 d6 g0 C
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 Q& p. U& L9 F* I+ j; t9 u; q' y x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, b5 t3 z3 E7 ^ I7 d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% J3 T- I6 ?8 G7 ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- b4 R+ K& H0 r
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 K: Z/ ?; Q6 L* r- m* p4 p4 dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) @$ d" d0 ~. a$ m/ v# q p4 Y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! a; J1 A5 T/ C& _ Vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ U$ s. B- W* t) s5 }3 b
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 [) A/ j& F& @. n8 @/ i
30,000 new households will form in the province during# l# a3 E( B. G, d. O3 f
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) N) }: ~, j$ F4 @4 p3 s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 d5 I6 l. r, d! K1 ]- Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 G4 O3 L& J1 k0 U F" Mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 ~8 E% A. g6 q) J+ `% k! Bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: X+ }, S' S, M x4 {
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ H: Z# z0 O1 o8 K/ cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: k1 ]- M9 Y, M$ x
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 e! E4 J+ V. A7 f5 O1 I- U: ~2 O
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) ?& p: B I5 E8 j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' F2 v$ |: }' ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 x# `/ D- `4 ?9 B+ p! t4 Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" |& z* ^5 G) ^" w9 V6 G9 i: a- r
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' }$ }/ E: Q6 }. p- H9 Atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( L5 @" d5 n: a/ z g& \+ q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 _2 M7 x% ~8 }! o1 R: i% bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 G5 h. c# u `2 G7 @: R6 t: o# W* X8 brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 T0 @) Z+ r: g3 g8 K4 T) O4 |
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 R; [- V! ~2 f3 B) b4 M( xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% |! [" [" n4 D+ s
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 v( w2 V* |+ E) O: F8 @% t
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ ~! z: A. j- t! `5 wThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, G; n: r! @+ R% qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 E6 J- b1 {5 F l8 q) n
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ n+ x4 Q% r( l" D9 e& n3 G0 Z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) |/ a! u- j ?3 ^9 T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ e1 O! }+ t9 f. Gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- `8 ]6 P- D Y7 `7 [. ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. B0 M) k) J0 g. r, _
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 d. W* q% n5 S# [/ |( R
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% n1 ?% E# @; O2 x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 S' h$ K4 ^. gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% ^4 C: @: j# p6 g# O" T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! F! @! z' s( W7 c# Tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
\* f# y" ?4 E- l6 o# pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 e( h/ R, O7 qleg down over 2009.) m- f8 l2 Z1 y5 ?0 \- i$ B
4 L! S+ G/ m1 y5 r5 k: a( V* T9 o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|