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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta& u# n0 }0 p2 K/ @0 u3 M
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ U8 c; Q# Q( F' mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# ^( _) e: x& s" X
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ _" L- I4 S Q' C3 L r( K O) m2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! N3 v6 f y! Q0 @+ g% L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ ?+ U. \# F. z3 afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ s/ r4 D1 W8 `the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ ?" J" z+ G9 @# wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ w1 e# C) n! R0 B0 J6 ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 f) X. {' e3 ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 p6 ^9 w. @2 Z6 u* k! ^9 dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* d9 r/ ]# f8 \9 Q' o7 { }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ w1 p- q% Y; d* | R9 r
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# ~# l* c% Z, vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 x( U0 P# ^2 I# V4 e1 x30,000 new households will form in the province during
( n# ^0 k: F k+ U- k, j/ M# M' K2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 G- l0 y/ t' x; P7 m6 _& e& h" s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 Z1 q$ y6 e/ q3 R4 phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ x- w: o3 k8 p: `0 K1 S9 K* d3 Lduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% E1 X! D8 o+ i1 ~& I
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ b2 u+ S" C" U0 k6 d' A7 ^# P0 `
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( O+ @6 a/ j( uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 D7 S* v+ X1 U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 t3 r' `+ Z, C. [
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% Z* { ?2 R( V2 lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& Q# I( I: t u! s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, G5 e. I8 \$ F! v1 Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 o9 F# O; x+ e8 h# u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in {* Y9 j) g' k0 @
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* ?3 E+ ~- ~+ f) y4 T" r
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" ~: G9 L% {$ M9 [: }( ~7 e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 O) n ]5 K$ h% _3 b+ z$ u7 _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. o) z: E4 ~" s9 y6 o2 v0 j8 i
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
j2 @3 A5 k$ D3 }* Z. L9 ~9 smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' \0 m3 u) u- s
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 P I5 L/ W% _
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
v" z/ C1 n9 QThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. C7 U9 O8 Y9 P' c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. |: t" ^9 S8 C9 Q3 x% o, u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 w6 B8 B$ k3 S- d5 [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 [8 Z% e) ?& {- q0 p2 j: Q: [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 n, E* O& ~! l/ B+ c+ P1 E; S
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% E% E* n; ~" D2 d: ]6 ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* ?( m$ I# Z( j3 ^+ `8 Z- u! z; t
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( C X: R$ R$ @& w JThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- t9 m: s7 P" P& g6 iresale price in February is evidence that past prices* M x' r' i$ ^- y# m ]7 m, e, v$ a
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) ~# g$ R6 w# ~ n( a' phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& P G: u0 s+ v- c8 L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! g3 B& q' j) L6 P3 G; T7 J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- G7 a1 M& [$ _! p# r# B! Nleg down over 2009.
4 Y7 E& z; O# [$ o4 g& h/ u0 [, s
! b: a7 B' J% W6 p7 s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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