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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 Y4 d/ P$ e8 X, n; o
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. : r; r7 E( v( X5 M0 j) x! [

' N% |0 ~9 d6 f"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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9 e4 @8 Z9 X* c% b5 i& D& h8 nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.9 t' F; n+ E5 G) \* w

# {0 A1 b& [$ G. ]+ l- ]2 z" nTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% M9 I. q& S, h; cTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - V: L9 O. ]$ A; @
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,$ |1 h+ ?+ M$ ]5 g! O
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 {9 f  h* X) R0 G 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。3 J8 e8 K. ]* H1 F" @! ~! x
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 a5 Y& E  I7 K) U7 i
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
8 G+ f( D& J: ?2 V5 o0 U9 t& `- O; F嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, |( @0 m+ n! p" d: f) A0 hWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. A3 w# `0 i3 [4 {1 X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. _; q9 g) I) L1 v) P4 |6 p7 zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 B) w/ K+ r* M) i7 r+ G! I0 x
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 j5 ^8 m1 w- R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( h+ _" r. m* c' x9 O+ X$ x
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ ~( f! Z* X* n) ~3 l9 xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# ^% G" n6 H% `, E* amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 k9 @' {# U% v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" X  Y4 z' p* }1 xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined  t/ U9 X& J! A( d7 C4 V: v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" ]8 f3 J2 x7 B3 ^! @6 o' H: c- ^
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  B7 \4 M$ d8 B3 k' k' E2 I+ Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. E; s! b9 R. z# ]0 s1 q8 ~5 D1 m# }homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 u3 ^- ^/ b3 i9 N, {4 F& f30,000 new households will form in the province during
. c" s2 c) A4 N$ L2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 x! P, Y5 ]/ ?
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 o( U% A6 _# f% u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ a0 u  d0 P) f9 r1 l2 F. U: k4 z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ j# j2 y# z# U+ g4 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ x5 J8 k' B6 N* j3 C! a
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" R" ]& Y2 g2 U9 G$ z- Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 S5 @% H$ k3 w0 |4 q% Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  Y2 _8 S* V% ^+ z, `8 K: y: z* Nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; Z& z2 i3 v4 z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  A1 t8 ^  Z3 k  ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; l2 ^: ?1 N  I3 ^- vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 q: ]# A6 N1 ~! `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 Y3 v! g7 v5 T: z" |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" y3 `! T% E) ~! a7 c  `
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 a$ }/ u. B* m) M& B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; L6 \; w$ G+ H% Z" |% H$ R" ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" I# l6 G, c7 A( t+ I8 ]* }* q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 E6 z& K' K4 j$ b2 D* zmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 i) ~% n' C  ]$ y9 o1 W4 _* s+ T# @# Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 t( B- X" _; \( W0 M/ k/ U
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& L. u. C/ V* _( d5 v9 ?4 c5 eThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# [7 g0 m& E5 Q( d/ lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& I- G0 O# Z0 Z" UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ L7 g- z3 V  T. S4 X4 ]' L% J
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ o. J" Q! ?1 P. z$ W
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# T  [; i: A* h& |6 P5 A+ X# W+ o
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# M( Z3 O2 O# s
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) h& T; g6 {+ e8 ]
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 ?8 [( l: O* G# q# uThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# F* d6 {# I/ J7 gresale price in February is evidence that past prices
* @: T+ n  F$ ^exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 h$ X$ l, p' T# Q2 Lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 b  ^0 v5 B6 k$ N0 v
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' ]3 b. q. Z8 X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ G- C( r& j. E
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 W5 y  p8 U4 R( m, q! C' ]  j
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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' S0 [8 W5 G$ U. y9 a* C# z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 5 D# w* m0 {+ O8 u( X
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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4 `- M. n. H$ L6 ~5 ?http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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