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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta6 M3 \( f' O; Z; P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' }0 s/ _- @& }3 z% r& g- i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- T& L7 b) S7 u) d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: c7 O# v Y: V2 k G# O C H2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( w/ w; k) v" B; O& D0 @, S, M# u
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 O% h" y5 ~+ I; i8 d7 u6 zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' E" I4 p) e: Z. A/ N4 S" kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& u" U0 g. f* n) |3 lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous" E+ H& V. u( J" W
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ f& D8 x# y; Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 p4 k: Q( J0 X( N
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, k: O$ S; p: m+ u2 T J
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) Y7 {! i8 F3 Z, ]9 M, I
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 \" w; t; h* T: `' S- _
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: ]" k7 L- D1 C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 X8 I9 O \$ t4 \2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& `0 V9 f+ `1 i
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: P3 L3 d! s# G9 i+ t, R& t" u" C/ m) T
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& R9 L6 h/ }! ]
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% }. N6 p/ \3 q+ ^% v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 m+ z3 m- {) {: x, F& b8 Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 k/ j {& Q+ |) f* Lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, n4 v1 `0 |# f3 V7 _
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ S* W$ G" f; b% {clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 Y& D, v5 @8 V; E1 U% `& O. t9 r+ A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- N1 D+ u0 r9 F& d2 ^1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# ~* h, K) g. Z: N5 G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
' T: |8 g1 ^8 D Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! h: D1 H, v3 \6 a y) ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( w2 W7 v3 w) L% v7 Cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ |+ w- K7 O& v9 t) o9 |! y) O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' n8 b9 v& p7 i" [) arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
r9 Y1 x4 o5 Lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
p5 `# b B& o" ~) \3 i) w% V( Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, x3 Z& p) b5 [+ r: o5 ?" iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) z7 Y- v. V9 t& Rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated. W* M: Y& f8 ^+ U8 P, _; o4 A
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! L* M6 ]2 @9 j/ x6 |* i$ \; e- x
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ w) f; F0 a* r. }1 W
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan$ p1 X# ?) s3 U4 e1 y" ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ G5 K8 C! t1 w6 ~ erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 M0 H% F2 A2 B) U/ u. o6 x# sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- U5 D a `" P0 _: F
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners _5 K( ?8 }$ D0 G% t3 `; F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 \& ?! Z) I. Y; |$ A% QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- O: c4 M9 N& J- ^2 P5 x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* v v) |* N1 L' ?
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ D" H- q4 {% I3 D3 U; i
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& S3 F$ f* W0 s h1 `$ `, Udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( L, W! R/ }9 }; K7 E+ n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( ]1 @& `: r1 ]5 k
leg down over 2009.
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/ P C& [' G0 a1 P( H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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