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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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$ T& ^! [) D' [TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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. a- m+ ]4 {4 aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 9 G# W. ~- y; V) Z6 k/ t
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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6 J) i( S5 c7 K, z" qNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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  R: y' i/ i8 g. n$ ^/ ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 J8 ]0 {; P; T0 ?# t/ z4 T7 S4 k
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 k: m( y0 u2 u" G6 _* G跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ k, z; e% q' j1 o+ Z很多人都回学校深造去了: c! U+ K. ~: {: H! R
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
& @9 P- S. w* ]% _4 W5 }Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# Z+ l  ]8 @- _' g! ]% ~boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 B6 N# f2 v7 B* C0 ?  {1 ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ ?7 }) F, I( e3 P2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 a  I- [6 Y$ |2 ?1 v6 M4 o
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 H' u& x) d$ o8 Ifrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 v0 R, [- l7 [% e( e' ]3 c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 t& d0 O+ [1 e0 w) s, E- ~may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 e4 e5 f: ^6 D! i% V0 [1 [% gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, {" m2 _8 a9 L7 O% \3 F# aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! b  z& `  D# U# W. E7 E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" y+ p# ]- T& r& b/ h  T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this" _+ E% N, Q  ^( q0 D- R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
3 D& O9 R1 T: I2 Yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 l7 l! |5 C9 B30,000 new households will form in the province during0 E5 h/ X% t8 ]3 n* d" Z$ P
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 ^" R. ]2 z  a- I7 G0 c8 u6 F% kEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' ~7 m' D1 p# _, ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 K# |% h( _9 r! f8 h- ~3 @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 N1 Z, X7 U" N% g( Ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& Q! B1 z- c. |- P. F& t
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 S5 `8 m: I5 }; Nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& \& K4 ~1 V" t1 |! r* S, f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. f- [! K# ]8 j  b9 z
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' B; b; C# h+ n3 ?4 L1 z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: @$ U1 N2 U/ ^2 w3 d) w
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' I! U- {' j0 }: [" W
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
; W( U4 N: f+ m, B( @buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ Y0 O0 @& F6 V0 b1 Mtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 l' D6 ]- d  g
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' @( L& y9 g/ T! `$ Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  @7 E) f2 y, j# a0 E' Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; M) f# B! t$ K/ K1 K1 J/ ]. mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. ?! e0 ?- r0 o, j0 o- e" \9 u- J- fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% z! I1 N. b7 \) J/ Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ V+ u5 v$ F& s
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 ^( Q8 i: V& B! N3 \0 `7 o
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 g5 t) K! e7 W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* b! l2 T1 M# a' }: F  ?4 c( H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan  u  z/ |" q; U2 q1 U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 K5 n* m. B  M' {  ~5 z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; P3 ~4 v; Z3 R3 A0 `( c  Pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. J, m" G  h) L/ X( O% l4 N
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% l: n. R; ^0 g6 x) S; ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! S2 M0 }; H! LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 ~+ O6 o: {# r2 {7 |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! ^- z. d' L# e. {exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 Z1 T: P6 O: k/ r4 r$ d2 c# V( ]3 I: Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, ]! q0 M8 C4 G8 Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ |/ t7 s7 v2 m' K- {* k" X8 B- TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 F) N4 A; `4 W$ B( b0 m4 E+ H
leg down over 2009.& b2 H4 w) e2 U7 J$ i! ?5 B( U

* A: n6 v; ^  j5 S' ?* k: T  _[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 l9 M  z8 N4 N6 a- SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 _6 `$ b1 s; c. ]翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; ^% `4 x. X6 H! ~( }4 s

& r) |: M' Y' _5 y4 ~) ihttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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