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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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! V1 Q+ }: B$ r( w) LThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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) Z/ s9 x' u" ~. a' N"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ O) R" h2 s  d4 K  i

& Z0 I; ]( y/ {" ~: v+ HNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.( S$ Z8 r5 X( d( D( a1 V( Z9 v

6 ]* n4 F7 K$ [. R  _* w; U8 iTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.: a( _9 [) Y  D5 b
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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9 |: a* l6 `6 O3 K+ K& i8 G- oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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" x3 U( j; v9 m) R0 a& b8 Xhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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5 j2 T+ N5 M" e7 r2 E9 |3 |[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
! J& m% [: c: V 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" J1 y  a- S3 `2 P# ?* ~% Q[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ' U9 O' u/ m- T% v
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
* e7 o2 ~7 ?% o" f5 d, b嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
( M+ b7 [9 P) XWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! [) I6 V: I( m  }/ t. ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 ?9 k- q  y4 ?0 U* K+ }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ f* Y! K! t- I* x2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: c6 g0 d) u2 R$ X! N5 tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, w  u5 q: j3 |& p6 C  Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. u* Q/ u8 K/ E# ?, Q' O1 L
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 u7 ^7 F& W% b( }6 ^
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 @- P" J$ j1 fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ N, v; Z8 H/ q* ^precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( V$ R( u- z" D' A8 {. S( Q/ h# P
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# d1 w7 Q  a8 W# l6 V" s/ ]3 s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  ?" o/ P) e$ u# U) U
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ e% a8 b' i, @& o  n2 ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 U2 n, A9 P1 A. l( R30,000 new households will form in the province during: Z, G7 ], k! c+ ]7 _: v: r& [% N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 f* N$ B6 O8 _. b; }
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" B- i7 Q  R' o% {6 W& m- Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# _( ?" t( v9 H" Y* e  zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 t+ d! ?& G/ r6 S) jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 D& o. W, U* h
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ n: ~2 O# v  f# o* _) Y* w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& e1 f1 s# N7 J- Y/ d7 U$ s/ Xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  @/ b; \+ u$ S% R5 V$ k( k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 v4 L) m9 H7 ?& {$ F- j) Fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 S' S$ _/ h7 V( f3 ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 G4 s. ?6 ?. s: u; b  s5 d3 K
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ L: h  J+ U- {! o" |; E
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 U% }/ y! k, F% m' {/ vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 ]8 S: T* i3 L9 \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. x1 x5 B5 K* @, c4 E9 Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, @# F- @3 t9 R5 R  q* Urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 |  X# ^! d& q, s3 Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 J; p3 L, J! H7 t- H4 ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" S4 A+ H9 W8 B, D- ^/ v* _
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! ]" P3 u4 `7 J' drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ H' u/ b% p  y; ~9 D& qThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, {. f* a( @$ t/ cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% f0 i0 p) |' ^( H# M# eAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 m1 d) ]! ~$ a( [# l5 O) v) ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% p2 Q9 ^; X0 Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: R- p* o6 }4 bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ K! y  @- u2 P
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' H$ u; J& Y) B8 Yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) L! B; t1 K1 ], j7 @1 ^5 o/ dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 H7 \2 N2 \0 ^+ f1 S0 V. Lresale price in February is evidence that past prices+ S2 W7 o% r6 k" v6 g3 n$ z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 w; k: ]+ Y1 Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 M/ ], o7 j7 l; ~5 B1 d
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; p2 ~; |1 s3 r. aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* V# |# w( G# G- x' m: J. K. U7 Xleg down over 2009." d4 Z' r* O' _6 s
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ _6 t# y& V7 U6 K& Z2 QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. + Y! E" a: Z# G/ b4 ~
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子! M/ D) c# N% L: h. m# w. K

+ ]6 j- F3 {5 X. d+ O2 Lhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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4 ]) W3 \8 q3 A. s5 g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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