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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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$ [  t# T) d+ S6 cTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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% `" A" I4 }/ D3 z+ ?The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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2 B. V" W, f% S) O/ P"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " |: d! `& o6 u6 ]6 R- W$ }
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.4 c; b# E' M1 S! j/ n$ j7 R/ I* E

5 n9 ]8 I' i& |: S- uTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.6 ?+ c- S3 t4 r2 I4 u& w; `

" _9 E0 x0 k1 Z* W* m"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. . O/ y5 L! i" T5 }) T
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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5 j( I+ R( o5 d$ y* q" uMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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# w& x6 ~: ?" i/ ?2 Uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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/ z* J; J* Z# S  @TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- i2 V' V5 c: A# A/ C; ~& n
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' ^( q7 X" H& t
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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5 H7 B. T6 O3 M5 B[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  N+ O; m9 B, ^6 ?0 G& |# E7 F跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( _6 t( R" z4 q* L6 f! \8 L很多人都回学校深造去了
# F/ [  ?8 N" i  B* ^嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; n1 a* |2 e! T0 _5 v0 l; J. f
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" D4 Q* g+ H# r4 q( n8 ~; F( Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) Y/ t/ P$ u+ @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- s% y" p" P3 Z' t# j2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, K& D- L! |* z+ E" z7 P8 vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 m4 |/ z9 _+ a, O6 n' }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 E1 `! v$ w$ y9 R; o- ]8 {- T
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 v8 n4 y+ Z9 G! T5 a' u
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 h! _; F1 K/ o6 j/ u2 gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( n  H7 C5 c) `* B) N
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ k% g; C3 T' {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! K7 D5 [/ [# a$ k9 L  q" F6 {! j
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* Z( P7 O  l. ?; f; G0 }. H2 z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
4 X1 ]: _! ~; A, G9 \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 C$ ]  D- |0 n7 }5 A
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 B. g: Q$ o5 z9 j/ ]9 G5 Q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 Z3 E9 G" g' N8 |$ w9 `Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 p% H  X9 |% w! g* L- K
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 K# V9 D6 J+ O& p
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 v4 h7 x9 O8 P  M/ Y. ~) p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 X4 I5 u7 S& {3 H5 K( @
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! J  t4 N3 ?& y" c! e, l
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 r. L' k1 @" t; @) @9 e
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 w0 M/ K, `1 c8 J5 w  I% O: y& m
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& l$ d+ h: s* h6 w. oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ z% v& h! l: @+ G! y6 _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( p  Q& L% A4 q& O  dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
' O; x3 y8 X9 U. r0 p# s& F! n. gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- _* D' P1 J8 F, u0 `+ |
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 Z7 x3 b% E2 I
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
  G8 m" s  s1 gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ C: z; L; A# l' s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; c; Q/ }' n$ Q" V( O* X0 A8 w. s9 `resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 n8 A; n/ i" K" e+ ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* e, F2 ^( [( Q7 ~. m, M9 E2 j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 }! A& a% f3 e0 v- b% ^* w( N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 [( k) w& d5 U* i: e+ Y* z6 h
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% e# a& n, `$ A1 P% l& A
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! l# v2 {( o3 V. B. m. `; [$ hAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan1 ^# V- b; K" N) ?" r! E' j! i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& m4 b& ]* Y7 w" R. r) x! crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! p% O- P4 k' ^  b4 @& E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 z% k  W; a* V/ }/ j' O) K' q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 W) k9 d7 z9 f6 `9 A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- y) `( R/ x5 A3 i! r! M3 X" c6 Q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* b" W9 O& W" L  a
resale price in February is evidence that past prices5 |1 @) ~, R7 M8 u5 Y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 R! T8 R1 G# E5 k/ j8 h$ V* ^homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 v/ w9 Q! z% c4 X, W! mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, \; |0 }/ J2 y% E5 j* zAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  A$ |& n9 C  `- R( U  H: I
leg down over 2009.% V+ c, d$ M: V; Q8 n

1 M' I, X  i5 U, F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ |; t& m# @) q( k( ?4 }0 I0 v3 TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
; ^2 y! ]9 @0 q! `- R- U翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子5 @* [: g. [" Q2 a

5 }/ e  C2 m1 Z& q/ hhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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; F- Q2 c9 j& Z$ p* I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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