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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 @1 P9 U) E  u% G* m

5 x1 i( Q& i% PTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 6 E6 {7 E6 c4 n

4 o& e; o6 Q9 [$ Q/ E"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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2 q1 z  p  S( u8 n1 V1 k% nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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$ @/ g& J3 o* s7 B! V* O* q' sTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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3 `4 ]. E  C4 R. D8 W3 G5 t"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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! R7 J9 v( D' ?3 ~3 nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! O5 O6 B: _( A2 J$ @1 Q
1 V1 G! S$ r8 F$ \" a( q% E
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. v$ Y2 T  z7 p& l/ m! O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. f0 t, [6 b" ~( a

3 ?- ]7 T/ l1 c# _8 f, |$ e3 y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
% L5 n7 a+ |2 l7 [/ w" E6 K" B跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了: f! {, s) H* V+ s' i: c
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# }# u) j% P. y+ V- `  TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, B5 e- P3 }: r; r% Zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! s9 ~6 y3 l0 ^5 eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" P+ K. I! _0 L# b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ x" v, R$ v3 [7 z8 D) C) _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; M$ p' q! n" B( |
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  z7 j2 Z3 K2 K# U9 d! w) `the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! ~0 \/ ^  M# j* T& `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous" l+ C& |4 y1 z8 v. X5 N! O
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! L( C) B. f# V  n" aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 o  w% K+ U0 m5 s  b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) Y  R4 j4 n6 r# |
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- c% m# j% e- G  x; I6 Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 p8 g8 D2 Z( r! T9 Ahomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' s* O( f  h: F0 L: C% I* @. W1 l30,000 new households will form in the province during, V. n3 D6 _* ^. \9 o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! ^$ U$ m; @8 x6 a) A7 A6 H) z
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 r" J+ p2 h/ @4 ~
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. C4 N- O7 C) f# D( `1 ^during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) E/ R% t- {  ^# v% P' w$ Hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- y( [! z: L% I
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 P/ I3 f4 F! `! T% p: g' Y3 ]  ]4 R
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( t$ s  b$ n$ E! u" isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 s* F+ f" E) `
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! ?- E; D1 c- D8 x
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- R6 b# S$ R. a2 f/ P# T/ c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) O8 Z* s4 F) ~) D  M! R& o
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ ?$ j7 r# B' @4 u/ t* `
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, s6 j( Q. M& z! I' B* {two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ Y2 i, t# @; k0 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- I  o  N0 G! D7 U) T- s! r
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest  K  R5 B' D$ [2 Z8 B* \7 v
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( O' |. M, B3 |$ D$ E8 k, `- K. Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ L& n9 S5 S& k+ m' amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ P$ o( v% _6 ~$ J! I; S4 M: b! f: ?of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ ^+ K9 G! R$ ?" H
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 S4 P9 c; w9 F' F' QThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 t2 r6 q* S; {6 J; ?; r; H( G( h3 tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 Q* I5 U. b& Q% V2 z/ p( R+ r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 T& j; z$ y) f3 H; Q8 yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& T0 t. @& I( @9 R& I# Arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 n3 e6 M9 r6 |) G+ Q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  E9 ?7 B* n; uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; x$ M8 u) c, G% T3 f* F- z: Bon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* a# L/ y: n9 B% W+ A
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* X1 `2 v/ V9 C7 r
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& l. C; @& x* `) z8 zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) i# O: v3 T, {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# {& z; M. `' d$ ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 N; `- A% W- D( q4 _1 i- ^
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ D# @4 n1 V$ L! t  v; Oleg down over 2009.0 F0 n2 J* ?! v# s( Z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: e' ?0 B$ H6 F, C& G2 ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
* g3 g: O$ V5 |" ^翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments' K, e; E" ?& ~  z3 L& M* l
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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