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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 I) i! n; I  q! b
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / v1 ~& l( _. x1 L+ b8 F; K1 f

5 M, I4 `+ t, i. ]! Z. v. SThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   r- L; j/ N3 Z: e1 W- y
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- h; |/ L9 c- A( u/ t+ |
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ u* A; ?$ R$ U+ G, Z" u

$ T, h/ r0 p7 w- I! s" l6 t* xTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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' L6 y  k$ a1 DMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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* X- d& j' v( s. r1 U3 gTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" @; Q( C! ^8 ~7 l$ Y8 A 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。7 J6 ]* t% B' i* h4 p; r. {

7 q  ^  @$ X) R! \2 ]- p6 B[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 U' u, M. D! u  Q6 u/ h
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
* F- ?" l8 B) i8 ]; H: U$ j嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# f) s* K5 K5 w4 zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* r8 B6 ]: T7 T9 l9 ~boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% D  n' q: s! O  J) o3 P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- S/ K) M) g2 J/ i: j
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 S) d- a' _' Y8 C* vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- G4 P1 R/ I: B  w* N# Gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ z8 b4 C' H% pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% @( o! t! v  n" V" R9 j) o) P
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 U$ @  B$ q/ J0 `8 r# s9 Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ R9 a  Q2 P$ p5 E9 o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- r/ y) ~% k& f" |( ~to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) j+ T( R. C1 S4 l, ?
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 n  [) d1 S1 c7 Lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# w% V. t! r+ e$ x  n! Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 \: s0 Z$ @2 L& j( z; `3 F: T30,000 new households will form in the province during  L$ H, Y  e0 q9 Y2 E% H. S; G& p
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ y! b# p% y9 _6 hEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, ]  Y# N1 c% s. \7 |: }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' J3 t) N- y- U. r! `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* o/ i6 Z: ^9 S9 c$ l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 I! n0 ^8 w; P+ L+ G- @households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 ^" Q9 ?) S% V+ j# k" sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 p7 n1 L' N& u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ c* Y" n2 f( t8 `; t4 pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& t- h! b9 h& r9 g/ |1 ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ e8 J" i; K8 J1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 R# i- y5 f; f3 R% v
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* G. O1 b- U5 u! Q9 s: G
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ B/ B1 v$ S& w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ r1 `- Y1 H* h* ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& o, {& G" `% `0 [6 A
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 h; M& p. f& u7 G6 ^$ b' M+ c8 L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! @  H2 ~+ V" a" N1 E7 e* jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* @1 D$ L3 |6 a- ~! |* wmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' [, O- B+ ]+ jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 q5 V9 G+ M* {: x2 l/ H4 T6 Irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" S% f6 P5 H1 B' ]2 ~- D% LThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 K( n5 B9 c$ o8 j( q7 N( }boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 h1 g0 K8 W1 b4 z8 g$ P# W
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! E! m, J1 J+ V1 W6 E
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 a) ^/ b: o  A* N) K2 h4 Y0 Drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 |9 z- p0 p7 p  g
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* ?; c( k3 ^* Q4 V. }  P* pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 s0 ]4 a  N$ [! o% s  oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 H% s" ?& _9 }8 Y" c  f& T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& F. d" A7 q; ~* t7 a2 V( a. S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices1 U4 l* T' @% n; F* B8 {
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 T9 x+ Y+ [7 j" I: Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’/ I% ^% X' S; [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; O' q7 }/ a5 m* E( h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ T/ S6 }" ~/ e1 d) k7 M5 ?
leg down over 2009.: a$ J# g' V" W5 Z

; `( `- Y4 c9 P8 X/ ~" s+ x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( V0 s; }3 u6 e$ x7 S+ F) nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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* u2 {& C: G* F/ ^7 ]. r4 d5 O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ! l& K. V6 E- g6 @  s" X
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子# e, P  J5 F$ C$ c& k. I8 i
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments% W+ a6 L) J) h! l7 R
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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