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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 y2 P/ H+ B% Q  E
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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4 `* D  M; {) ?5 _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 5 w% H, h" m7 t6 i) I: h7 z
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller., p, ]$ C# Q: k) G

2 b' J+ Z) a" e; hTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.; {2 b7 U: q% j7 b
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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& I. T) N: V) G  B/ ^  nMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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8 Y% ^- v5 I( T! ~$ uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' t# E$ A4 ^0 f. u9 ?9 _
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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6 X$ U0 |- s3 Y# [6 t3 |[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 t0 T: `, |% s: o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
3 S1 h2 M( G0 e( H嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" e+ g- ~' r- }' @  i/ ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" _# _6 [; M4 n4 ?% Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, P$ y% |2 M4 u! p& A) |6 N
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ S9 T. k- c* z9 H4 W% |: d9 o1 ^2 G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* L3 g. [) j* e. A" _+ r
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! ]' H1 w$ J: U4 o# \
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' b- v7 |+ G0 j# ^4 @4 Y0 c2 pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. n+ `( t( o! L8 \* N3 Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 {; [- A( [0 j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! }" Y* |2 l: C; {% K7 cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( m+ o' r- |  t1 x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' ~$ Z) L3 _6 O+ q3 m  }; a! d
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 F7 j$ A+ c1 p! N, }* }
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 i" u& I' |9 Z4 U' }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, v: R& U9 p+ H9 T. n
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 K6 x" W- |$ q6 a. t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 k! a7 ?; e- z7 b# c2 v3 n- J
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 |8 z  N/ C: c% Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. ^! M$ A9 h9 o" H& Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 l8 X0 _% H1 k! M: E8 u# Fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: @. m* o8 v% A7 g% n  \* chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" p4 U% V# F6 u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, Z& Q8 k" k2 E1 G/ X+ H) h' v9 isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& {$ b3 U7 R0 o( P0 p/ ^$ n: @1 r" dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 k/ S/ j" u7 u$ E$ j2 ?, E4 Rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
: d6 f& J1 b2 z; v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ Z6 g$ _& T9 @8 [0 _sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  p% b* _9 ^5 o% r% t
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 m$ q: [# l; }7 y+ p
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 o! {. o/ w& wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% ^' r$ B0 a$ ]$ J% v7 H# e4 j
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" u( l8 N: t1 A. Arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; x0 F3 x# n9 x+ s. C3 N% Sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* g2 b0 E2 B9 `' f( X9 b
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 B( W2 P+ o5 e$ f( J% L5 N' k
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled& `+ {' e9 B) y7 X2 X, M! M1 @( y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 ]$ C  w/ ~6 u9 Z/ v4 \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% |% S5 h% Z2 F7 u
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) ^% T. D# _/ A6 G- gAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( v: Q: O- l: Q2 z3 N
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# E( g- y5 Q7 L& t3 |relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 j$ s0 R# h  M; D3 V& J0 r8 P
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ i7 Y) V# a0 Z# Y( M, z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ p+ h  ?& R3 I4 S
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 w1 Y# H& F$ ^& D" o5 ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 F8 b7 P' I- K1 _3 e( g2 j( M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% U; t5 @9 ?* j: c( y$ Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ o5 }! d5 m- G# S) H( i' i2 Ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" p% W' e2 W2 T, I7 k9 _deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 e9 O  A3 I6 X, }8 z" s+ i9 t5 wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 W7 }& K5 K; j
leg down over 2009.+ I3 L) i( k3 Z/ V# G
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% J$ A3 G9 C# U; b6 A8 _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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) k: d) m, g# e3 S' l6 N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' P# f1 W( s2 w/ K" [) u% b- j' U
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子3 K  c5 q/ S; X' r

2 C0 @% r3 e$ X- _: khttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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1 @$ B! p9 a, q' l; O4 k2 ^) Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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