 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 i8 e6 R) f1 X; n5 p" @3 m+ VWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ P K' s3 `% b) @; y5 |3 Nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) K! @$ l6 |- v0 q0 X0 N* N. r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 v3 R5 f6 e* n: G4 e- d n2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' B& q- U f* U% K3 S. G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& X( c" n! N; Y) T* ^6 \& i
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! C2 P6 L1 t" u% J2 L6 b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( e. @! N6 O4 L7 F. l& n0 e
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 z8 e7 m) F" ]% f1 e4 I3 k/ D: v3 ]4 y
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 }8 z+ H" b) v' s" w3 x3 k0 Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 Z8 T7 ~# S! ?
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! z- k9 Z- i; v/ M5 i
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 _" V; H" m: C. ^( y8 [
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# x( \ j* J3 L6 J* l& `9 S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) Z) E ?% D; U" B! f
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 f1 B3 |. x$ X; e& ~0 d# I! s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 `( [& R: N+ h" C- ~4 e! y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 l/ S* ]! X* U& O
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. q+ h' U9 D0 V: t% C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ n8 \. ?1 V1 D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 b+ h' n/ Z' F: O; Q/ N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
f3 D* l) j3 B* q& ?7 T% ?( i1 kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, D7 \& @& ]4 \6 R1 b1 i9 ^
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ c2 F! k' E! ~, S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' H* f. ~( y1 V& ~' c( b+ x7 Rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" i0 `* ?, [, [( }( }# N! m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& D# z5 V/ G3 e! V
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% y" K; [+ |8 _ w# w% G% ~) _buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* v( S" t! F9 J6 V# Z: o2 q. Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in' i, M) m4 |* V
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" |4 w: E2 x6 K) n" tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 Z" f9 B3 w k3 erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 q/ K0 e0 i8 m( K/ j! Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- {' Y$ [$ f1 ^/ {& o4 ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- t3 J+ R z6 ?. ^, q. I- i: }7 d
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& Q& Z5 Z, o* C9 V4 G+ H2 Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 G3 m+ [3 U6 ]! Z% U& V) x
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
+ l* T( q( G8 @0 J3 q6 s8 xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! H* a Z& I0 g5 s9 s9 k% o
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 r3 R+ w8 u( o
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; U! r6 o- [" ^; `1 M( x3 e9 arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& W, } w) U8 i- i, p% M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* o$ Y# |+ h# E5 ?0 U
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
" c- p p" N7 O' ^% y6 B9 X1 U9 \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" X. @2 D% j* |9 V/ n; E# y9 BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# g7 n( K: d* d) r9 y& P
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( T: X% p/ `( h2 V& G$ [$ dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
B( u8 I. x, J- Z. n. u0 y' Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: a" S: l2 W6 z. H% O3 t% [8 O) v
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 H4 h! t" E5 R# x6 |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 \+ W1 ?) H8 r5 lleg down over 2009.4 v) R7 x4 k6 l- S& _1 @
K* `! y* y2 m6 C1 m: d0 E3 Q& e% w h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|