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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% s, r" C9 m) L3 PWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its% {2 Y! a4 Y- w# B& j: N w \
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ i" ]7 c, p0 Y" W; V S
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, Y3 \7 S1 [" f+ ]( l" I3 ~
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- }4 r$ H. z+ n% c- ^formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: B4 {) j% d) i5 X( O7 D; L
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! t) z7 B: c; D
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- Z e/ I- R6 n, F1 P7 Z; xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 t) E+ w6 E5 q7 c8 u h, a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- B2 B5 L0 a1 k: c% V b; K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 ~1 L0 r' m; [" w, ^/ Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: m5 R- v3 q) b# j& l* ~- _$ a) a' I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 x! V0 j5 D7 hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 E! M- L8 p& {" t" h9 R) a: E" o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- Q: |0 Q& o9 o& q y30,000 new households will form in the province during* |/ N" Z- r$ B, Y3 l2 I
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 [( H2 V# K% n$ fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% w$ U+ W+ \7 \ z: F ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. e$ U, t& w3 gduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta T. E$ r! X: ^
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 ]% N! P) j6 i& `" n/ i
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( e) {1 B" ~1 b( V8 i" Nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 T# W! [/ e1 }* g9 H6 Msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' a& J7 [/ ^- s Mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 A, F7 ]9 {* }& L+ c! {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 c8 @1 K8 U5 t7 m( R+ z" o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 D- c9 v2 O( x* j; X0 d* O
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: s# Q- ]$ S" l/ B2 K/ o/ fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& @1 u& H, k6 y8 u, C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 S" ^: W' \: S/ H/ A" uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 | ?- z3 R) o I3 J3 k9 M
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 o0 Z0 X) E5 {' D) T# e# V8 G5 x# N) k
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 K0 m" Z+ `- G- F7 |) E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! Z$ ?; U$ X" _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! _. u+ Y3 c5 t+ ?% ~, S9 F2 R
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* F0 o, N$ b* K" V4 P |7 Vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& i* V9 V, t( NThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 k* P- {. h+ h T
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 ^/ q, I3 [" v
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! c! D# w1 k2 R O; u
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# A. W( ]5 `6 e& A8 vrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 S0 Y; v" a. [$ y `prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# Z, m* E# r4 D5 ?though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. g3 p1 R* r8 X. x2 T
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 n0 T5 J0 N0 I: V
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- N& y0 i+ W# J6 Uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% B% M' _- I8 H0 X- s* y0 b+ H7 [/ cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
4 C3 V) i- Z( k0 rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; p7 ~: {* S. z& y9 A7 U3 \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 @/ ^* R# b$ E8 O2 n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 A1 z' i( q7 \# }! vleg down over 2009.
' ^: b/ `7 ?- B7 C. \& @5 z6 E5 z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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