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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta& {3 A7 `2 o/ c! `
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, r2 A% Y3 O7 c9 lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' z, e w S5 M0 n. ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% h7 p" |5 d" D/ C% V9 H6 T2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household K' r: f. d. q% Q! F
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. i4 J2 v, y2 d+ ^8 z Y2 H6 e/ t
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* i5 f# {$ B/ M9 s5 K- H
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) O/ {- a, B% Z8 r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- b2 T1 D+ c4 U) C6 j7 {" b; T! I
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" K% B; {% v9 w+ S! ^8 B0 i/ Jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 N% x8 Y! K$ h- wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 c& ^' H& C, qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& F. P" ^3 H" k) ]/ \ \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 C# z2 I" Q9 z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- q2 ^+ G* `- x9 V$ I& m9 \! m2 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during
p! Z% H, X; J5 r# ^, o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 J1 P# K: c: `: ?5 D2 }
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 t- P: p2 K! T& qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ ^. C% r( k( a6 ?during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% E, B& K& s$ V6 j0 \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 c+ w. G. G- z: Dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 R, \" m m- t$ Z& h, y
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. h+ T/ y- f7 T# }$ Y$ d% E6 C
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; _; {1 x/ ^# T B) Z8 Sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 w/ k# r! U I" D4 w9 t
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 M* T0 I5 ^4 @; y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 L+ C' g9 M) G. l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) u/ X. y& R- `2 J% ^2 v8 s4 Lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) k2 \' {5 e0 }
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! Y0 e8 H3 H" q3 L) gunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 s; u( |1 \% l7 B4 A2 D
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 o0 j, [0 ]" T8 C& f& [, F5 X$ _
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 ^* G8 o3 v" t# v! g) Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 n+ b( p7 _9 r" Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 \' P8 x3 v" q/ S6 w, H
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% J* X! F6 |. n% Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ R* p, E% Y" XThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 u" i+ H0 M, Mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic. d* n2 z* ]% p0 [8 E* W
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 G) ]; N, o( ?housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 o1 m5 `' O- I7 ?/ A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; a) W- m- V: ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: t2 {3 J4 e1 I" D
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 C* O. }$ R. o4 E( oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 E. D1 u a5 `# Y% _- M: WThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) E2 `" k) m# y' O5 p9 g2 o" I4 c h
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% u9 u, Y) Q) M# ^exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove X! f* {$ k x5 M+ U7 U( ~
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( d8 C1 o; N' w2 [& f* e6 [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ V/ D. Y7 G& c3 K& }) p. Q9 ~- X5 xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# j8 m: i5 @0 ~& {2 u' e* dleg down over 2009.! K5 b* K0 J$ A, [! ~ m
" c+ r( c+ ?3 I& j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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