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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 _0 B/ a+ I; R; t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! Z7 v7 y3 Q* b* i" v+ x. F
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& z: |, v% |4 l- O0 ~are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" t4 T& @9 }( c, E2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 s: l* {/ w5 r" x0 o
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 u e. q9 t; ~- m0 v( Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% k: I& A9 V6 N* g) Z1 Zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 f$ Y) }. `, J+ jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: `; _/ h% Z0 ?, H* h& n- r. O7 U( qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ q; R, c" }' V1 e: k
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 J, V' H4 ]; E0 Kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 R! {& [6 B% k. t9 O, e
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' g- B1 i9 o/ x% x( G
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 |' ~1 V2 X& H! G" q9 v5 j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, k" Z* t! Y y% l+ V! u" C+ }5 f30,000 new households will form in the province during
& {& ?* E! y% P2 q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 {' i+ t) Q; g; k* W$ U$ A7 V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) h* U; ^5 L; hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 A6 o. t. k% }& p/ Q2 z* Yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 v% p) _; [9 Q5 q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- m$ P! Z! n! t. Q W; R& _5 K# w: [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! e) @3 l* x5 G5 S$ W0 B" i9 e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 c5 _$ L7 |/ i0 x1 ^sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: W! W6 Q6 [8 B9 mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 E& S7 a: S4 f) g5 }. O- `
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 [6 n3 r# v. b6 c& c; Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 s3 i3 q o, Y# o* u
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 o' l! ?# _' y- Zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( z: W' y+ q9 @
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 Z* F5 |' a5 c+ munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( W3 w3 W5 l7 c( @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* M) D: a% c# {( q6 S
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ |( @) @) P3 E, g+ x
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* `% I+ W7 J5 A7 R: O- fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) G) k6 r) {0 z8 c' Bof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 n+ y! W4 s0 u6 B
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 t- P' M* W% U& A7 T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) }6 C8 |- _0 E& Q) Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) b) g- ~5 {( S( o* v# I1 \! I" CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; A* H' A! f4 U7 D; \. W
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- g3 |" L- Y# X* ~' N8 \8 l+ Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ l+ _, W* u9 ~' n( v) ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ B @4 S) Y4 d# }5 K3 {7 _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( c* i0 w0 L/ @3 h1 G
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ [. g; E+ L2 @. I5 n1 @( O; a8 b bThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 `0 S- W# W A$ i: @- v' qresale price in February is evidence that past prices9 G/ C* }& c$ N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ o3 N! X S9 j, b/ w
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 ~) O% y$ k; ]- A T
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 Q& @. f+ i# u. ]# f' Z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 `8 x2 S6 R: B" d/ v6 m
leg down over 2009.
1 N$ B) }5 {! N. I; r" W. E' J
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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