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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.9 i: x" K* d0 w: S, B
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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, B5 Q, j( B  N# r; e* Y& CThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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, U* Y& A  t1 lTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) b) V( H0 d8 }5 n. N

3 {$ D4 K& f+ q  S3 b0 F7 fTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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4 {* N7 z3 |! X7 k/ FMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,9 N0 b+ o$ I( d* N
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  T9 H) G9 W7 e3 }! p; f 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* V9 t6 u& h( N

. b% W; i, f6 s$ j# n* O7 _! u[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
& m' i2 \$ W. h+ ^; h- w1 G- u跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了) E/ m+ r6 @6 j& m8 ?
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
/ v) a" ^: f( G) b  ~5 T9 G( JWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 R8 d" ?3 O/ z! U& N1 y+ @boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! L" F- m5 @- k- Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- P+ z- U9 {3 Z' P1 M, S$ V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* @7 i& Z3 i+ V, S' i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# C! ]5 B3 w& l
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: g/ t! \5 A* L% s5 g+ q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 T- {; z8 f9 b( l* w+ B
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous  f  |( _1 ?- c2 }4 Q" u6 Y; r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. t- P& @1 d8 D8 B' f6 Jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 F& V  J: f8 _$ I6 W
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 F. j8 ]" i5 y* {( O* v& Bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 m5 k' o. l& C% X$ q: |+ v4 n
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. @6 a9 ]7 P3 b+ o7 r& Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 \1 |; L0 I3 ?! S" w5 _
30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ m$ I$ Z; }  D( o6 U! m2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., p0 e  P% B/ R: a" {, c1 {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 Z6 [# G6 i2 W2 O9 R5 ]
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ T8 W( K! j$ s0 b: w
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% I( v, J9 ~7 k) j  `1 V
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ U7 s" A" t- p, ?( ^; b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ I( T- r* X7 Y* {' \' k5 K* O
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 ]! K/ Y, J/ N% l- t: g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# N1 }3 D- {$ ?9 Y# ]# U& ^clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* I/ z5 j" {( A2 ]. j* j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
$ S" w3 h. h7 G( N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 Y- q2 ]% ^$ `- A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 f% [4 s+ F# Z" v+ e6 ]) O
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  I4 u3 M. e& [0 N, c
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& P( @6 L# _' }& c5 S) g, Z& Y1 Y- G. |
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 Z% r1 }' s. s6 K, K5 ^
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ j* n% K6 D+ v% w1 `; U  d9 Drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  @/ I) A1 s: l: rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 u! C. d% H9 B2 _; R, m& x
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! y4 a: z; `4 e4 kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled: u+ M3 R/ k/ r8 ?0 M+ C) x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 K) U- l! i/ ~) e* QThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 Z) j2 y( j' j! s+ c9 N7 xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. f+ u# @/ m* w7 s4 U$ zAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan, p% p0 m9 d, g- Y* ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ i, _6 H3 e7 Q# ~
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: H! x/ K7 h) g, Uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even" c6 G% r9 E# @# F
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ Z8 c9 `+ x% s+ v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% w/ p5 Q9 a. }4 QThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* \; @3 @1 o. L- E" B1 V: Cresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% n' f1 i1 E+ e7 E; ^exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ Y! i2 U# r1 N2 z. x  \+ `. Thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. v3 d; W  K5 g6 fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 o# h, f) y- ]Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ J4 a- @5 J2 W; Ileg down over 2009." t- L: J# ]0 B) E8 ^: V
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 z7 ~/ W2 y5 Y0 @1 L
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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) U8 \& V; B2 h1 l$ u$ ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 O: J/ j2 v- r翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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+ V' u/ p3 @5 A8 s% E* ehttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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- D6 y! o+ \& C6 z$ X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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