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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.. r/ C& r7 x% s: s; p& ^

9 u4 T9 i( [) y( Z4 fTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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* m6 h4 s% L3 W; ]2 Y. K3 t"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 j1 P1 Z* {) |- j9 s
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.6 A$ U* W% t" F* Q
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) J* T1 o( S, ~5 W  S- b
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.0 d% T& j6 I( W* z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. + ?8 {! f  S. v4 \0 F
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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) d9 B) t8 D5 Z: t4 V5 DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
2 [$ l7 G; f! G4 z0 R2 K: J+ c+ ~! f
" y5 V1 z. S* h6 J0 [( j[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。# B2 Z( @% B( y) M! b3 r
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。$ N9 H! @7 P  H0 k% u+ T& l5 B

7 v  W5 ^" O! Q* m[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 5 I  g$ S& Q  |
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: E; b$ Q/ Y' C" ]' P很多人都回学校深造去了& Y8 f+ N' A' }) A* n
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta) m/ @  L4 m6 p& F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 L9 j0 P- w  W6 b8 ~6 t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' m" ~" ^6 {% tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- D& ]4 v% P! S) ^: O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 y$ [! {4 q. W* ~2 k
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, r8 b, U5 V, ]# A  [* i9 W/ Gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* ^7 A* m4 v% h! Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% j  ~: A; P  U+ n" K+ j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' \) i9 z/ C3 q& z, h
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 z0 p# S" s1 r: I! r7 Z- K* G2 V" Kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 a3 C; j2 C8 k2 P+ H. Z$ X" Jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 m# j) j* u( B. J
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 D2 h7 H5 w; J0 K& Q& L
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ j: o/ S3 B; ?% d1 i; e1 k1 q# O7 h
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' B+ w) l& @- M' v
30,000 new households will form in the province during9 w# m$ P0 ?# I. d8 i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ V6 ^" L7 z7 e9 \' lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) h. B: r1 c9 L. p3 ~' [
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" s; J" m3 V: K" `9 m' y& Q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 h; p; T+ g8 ?" X3 `
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ x2 c2 p  ^! R( y; N( s* m5 ?6 _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ r8 W; J9 K  r9 `! h& \; Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 q/ a. I) J( N- [! _6 Ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# ?$ c' O9 [' t9 T. Fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& D3 e5 }6 X3 f( Y. d/ x. Rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# k: z5 W6 i( J  b
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 u% r$ R* |9 X" E5 h8 m' i
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ Z/ d0 `5 Y: m+ A8 B! W  _6 `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 H- i1 d$ ^; L/ b% Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, M( O7 f1 l/ S0 s) \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: t$ c. J7 l/ P% ]
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ y+ ^! h0 e- f8 d
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. @# O' O" h- T& ?2 @2 ]resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* g* C! X( m1 T: ]. o" q, o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 J! u" N4 o7 B( [: Kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled  U( P, m; R( u: E5 a& X
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% V* E; K) K2 L( m
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" f6 Q2 E- s' S! Eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- I' y5 e( f) Q; M, l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 ^6 w& a  i- u7 N& o/ G, x5 [. r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, C# a$ L/ f& H$ Urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
% F  H8 D1 ]0 s$ uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even; r8 Q, |; {) A" \3 S+ S; U+ }; {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- w3 K7 ]% _5 c
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 p$ W( Y% w1 j# K5 N
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ _/ Y0 @: O+ g0 H% Q& V0 \+ I7 u7 v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 Z9 C" P3 }/ yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ f5 T( H* J' C0 W4 |  o. T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) v& ^, v$ Q8 z( S1 k/ S$ D4 p# edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 o5 o5 @8 i! F! n# w! ~! m! sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ p% F2 |' v4 X% u2 g
leg down over 2009.
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$ g2 R9 P6 B3 |* U1 \. f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ J& U- d/ y( x* D- }: a  C, AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' d  n5 \! t, ~! e- L
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子7 r, B6 H: c% A; I3 V) M( v9 U

# _/ ]  d+ A/ y4 T- b/ rhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments* p1 v6 R! M: `, K; m
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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