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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 W0 ~6 [! d( JWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: x* S. g! O5 ?6 { ]
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 D) I+ F2 h; `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' X" `9 N/ ~, e' K+ l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 ]) a- ^% r1 G5 d+ b) Z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 |( F* y" j% V# c8 b
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 F) F* x# j* Ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% T: |! _% A, P7 J) Fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 a9 n$ R; o! C1 l. e7 ?) a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 M( X6 F* `+ o5 Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 u$ U. a+ s7 G B* \) [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 E. [& Y: i% V0 ?/ {; O
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ F& N4 j* N5 o4 F+ e7 Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 F6 ]7 o( A9 }7 `* m4 p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 o" |( D" \$ X' b! V7 f30,000 new households will form in the province during; R" g9 L0 a( L! c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 h4 I: ^: r8 b3 _$ eEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) z0 N* ^. K" |0 X. Z: thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ q; V( B5 Q' |: s Bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' Y: _1 f. S1 `* c5 P5 W
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 L @0 T: K& ]( w0 i$ Jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 v1 o' q$ S1 S
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" O2 p _" y1 Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. O. r( `5 s+ D) R
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 o) A8 w% X6 P3 r
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ P& |, E4 M) i- {; L4 D
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* m% L0 y2 B; e3 }8 t$ _0 @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, a% M6 K" {' B6 G3 Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ B$ V* d, T4 r n9 t K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; Y* s; E9 l$ M+ q0 y
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ G0 S# Y5 E) {; X0 p# Xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' T/ O/ d! O# ]1 ~+ c5 s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 K" J6 E1 H1 F& J, s# q4 Mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' a. w; w1 Y% v; _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' f e5 F5 d" k7 E# T& m- B
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. }6 E. c: ~" L: x" r% q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( \4 Z" ~# a4 G% hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 S; O0 A$ o5 P& u( B, L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 L+ `( M) }2 ^! V# q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
# {) b; u8 |) T( j: n* F) F, ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 k' r8 h3 J; n3 e; L% P2 Zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- Q- t0 k8 k# s, Q) i4 C8 ^$ tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. `% S" Q5 u) A9 W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ a O1 e! |$ [6 a* L1 H( D
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% ?/ @, |) |- b( I& y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( V, K7 N5 p. i: Xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
# k0 t: K8 y; J5 L% zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 D- x; I* K" G
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 U( a4 R$ T4 A$ S2 \& S; ?deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ j$ j# Z$ H2 {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( l6 d" i, ^+ v9 a. F( h6 j- W4 h1 ?leg down over 2009.
* V* z+ i8 }5 U2 ]. t2 g p D+ m4 r: ^. Q, R& r2 U
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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