埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2639|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( U4 R! E* j" t

. m# X3 b4 I& f% X( mTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
; N( Q4 F: k: n% |# r; I# ?0 p# n, k$ }6 D) }5 `+ |8 ~
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % L! c/ H4 M6 w' Y- g2 {. q/ K

9 C$ Z& w" Y0 G' E7 X# c. b0 m"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
: H5 E3 A  z( _9 p4 T! y" U/ |
: {7 L+ G# w1 c* H* T; p  dNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ a* ~# s  u  U. M: F
$ p; M8 [& U% Y& s4 {9 ^( ^. z' C
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* S- P# b# d" z& |9 c/ y) f+ @
# v& o% o& r! w1 |5 F( m5 K
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 5 G' H2 w. H: i5 n/ R: @4 T
( {. p/ O3 [. s* G6 s
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
' u+ d! y' h$ o. }
* t) t! @  T7 @$ ?" w' P) T2 VMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
4 s& F8 L* t% k! b/ _. w
! y; s) N/ k" e- W& ?6 `http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

& p2 i0 m& F! i/ Z% u( F- i4 `
/ K1 L6 @* Z$ k, eTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,; z% t( [* r5 q

) b" X! L& O3 m5 R[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
' [+ A, R' L. |5 T: p 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
/ ^  R! c# a' Z9 s: d" w
. j8 o1 y4 a, r/ T4 [1 l0 O7 m# t+ G[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. U, @1 ~. ]. }8 }, i  m跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

) U) E' q; q+ A. Q; E& |& G很多人都回学校深造去了
2 _$ L1 }  ~" D- b4 m嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta% E* g4 B5 q1 Z+ j- c
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; S0 ~; g1 ~/ S, p% Z1 X! ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 C) m1 e3 @+ d7 z0 Ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) R( ?7 F8 B+ S" O& M2 Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ t5 S5 C+ N1 Q- {. U- T$ T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 I& S5 t+ F+ y, a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 M3 a; U( `0 G& ?# d. e4 i7 Athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ j9 e& r: b$ W& s" r
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 R- [  R7 v: \. v4 z1 v" j/ C, Gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 W7 V2 x' |/ r% i: P
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 b" K, P: Q* i9 V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ V6 I- d2 g4 ^2 Z9 W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 i# x& I5 I! ~2 K4 F, s5 Iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( N  h- v* Z) G, Dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 x" F0 {5 [$ t+ ^5 \* P+ R; A
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 ]9 N1 H: C7 ]7 x& ~/ P& s2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( {- {- y) W' e8 \Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" V/ o6 q% M- O1 T% v8 E; g; [homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; c& N  N: q& D) `; O# G- Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" j6 R0 X# H& [# q$ Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ J0 \* m- [6 e6 w0 [- Fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: }0 y3 v; R; b% }5 Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ J+ t# |! t0 l' wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# G" a7 R9 J  q2 P
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% P: d/ \4 I. t+ [! C
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 z' |1 R  c  {1 j1 s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( b; t( m; H7 P+ G% N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: X7 D8 M  r7 A# r9 u8 q! lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  r2 [2 s/ G1 }two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
  R9 t% l% k8 ^. T0 ?2 p# dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ x6 M  u) ?- C0 O0 Z7 q2 y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 E7 w6 P1 d$ |, e, P
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 b5 L) r( y3 F$ f% G1 e9 Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 b' {  M$ Y* X0 a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( Q: R/ t# E9 P! c# V% _
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 J  k/ ~0 {  b0 b' k* u1 |8 U4 g* ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 }  L' V* F, r, m$ l: ]1 R& y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 ~6 C, V, y8 O) g# H7 A( [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 \) {; x4 b$ m1 S" f- N3 }; KAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ ~9 h  w9 e1 D+ ^* h  E7 L3 Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ ?- B6 M( k* e4 _6 a  qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& h5 Y7 L, c  |8 h/ j$ Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# t) B5 z% D9 L( r, O( s: P- hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- G% h0 p5 e% T
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ l2 x* {5 m7 f. N+ R
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 @4 j8 V* U6 R( `: f4 y/ Kresale price in February is evidence that past prices1 U3 v8 \7 \2 D# ~' h7 c
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" Y* J! R1 v% |5 g/ G7 X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 J8 J) ?1 v1 N. F
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 n, _0 y3 D+ \. T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 I5 F. \, I. a" e/ o& _7 }3 L$ X
leg down over 2009." |( p6 P: h, w+ b
: Z6 ]0 U4 t( X9 ], l" q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 u. h! n& X  X* q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

# j9 R$ w, y; q$ E
% J- e7 a! ]  T/ v' {4 D5 c' \) o1 ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  j5 ^6 J/ d) n3 t  o7 O翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
1 H+ i4 i. z! t0 r' V3 D7 A+ X
  |& h# A+ ~, H. I* I' d7 ghttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
3 \! e* R  p8 }7 G' Y( u4 q
7 ]1 s/ c& q# O* T0 P9 ^: M& a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-20 23:21 , Processed in 1.285204 second(s), 19 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表