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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta( ?8 _& D) @. J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& B2 {5 q7 ^9 A6 d4 D1 E ]
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ R9 S0 r3 D* l5 h/ b4 u, A3 T
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% Y3 v# B$ b$ Q% ~. ~! z8 N1 _- `
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; J. \% Z$ p. Z0 t9 A- Y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; M4 Q1 e3 y7 b- d6 b8 Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! p8 l/ V# z0 ~& v8 athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- Q6 v+ m; G6 s+ M7 l' J& {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 L% Q9 d1 Q9 i- [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 ~/ _$ a- i A* O$ M$ e$ Uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, ?: y6 k# Z7 d) R& E, l: \& z9 s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ e0 \6 \4 o$ l; _1 c% @% ?8 |$ ~prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( F$ M, f, f4 b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, l3 ?7 x9 O1 t4 }4 Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 a# |* Q0 o% v' B' m+ F* @" y, k) H( \30,000 new households will form in the province during# E* ]& s3 v- H A2 G- r5 _+ x
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 F5 C7 h" z' ^' ^% }0 A, b$ o9 NEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! G+ h5 }; V8 E: i. ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 t, b7 ^: T" T- N
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 Q- B+ r# i& `, zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 x& Z/ b/ i/ ]5 O$ T( x1 {0 v( B* q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 j$ E1 H/ I9 e9 A/ Q& w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# ^8 R o7 C Q+ X
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 @) Y! `" G4 Z; I
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; X+ ^5 Z0 s" V9 m
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" v$ c4 |. u: c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ u) w+ Z" p9 w5 C9 m* {" X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: G: J4 s6 Z \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( }2 B5 j8 e" W: N4 |& ^: Btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( o9 B: n2 x4 l0 r- ]" Lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 v4 m, s( u* M$ v$ L
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 H' z8 o8 f- {4 c0 B
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
G% i7 ]: c6 ^7 Gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% n4 D+ [# s# ^. dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 J- _) O5 C) m+ I( w N$ }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 q* W1 Z3 I- X2 jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& z; p$ {: q: S: tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, m+ Q0 A' D& v5 j# H6 B9 y6 K" i* N
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" l" y, {8 N8 L) fAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan3 k n) s* ?0 T* q5 U( u# [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* p. B+ S" K/ V v0 j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ N# L3 s- o9 s0 P' j8 L2 u. xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. o4 }. t. ?: H: L# u1 h
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 P6 ^- ~1 h, c0 X9 w& J U
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ T" M F' `. P7 U9 d! d1 T; Z! DThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& }9 w: ^6 R( o( F. u& }( p
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 u$ q2 n- c: q3 t& x( Z$ e. [# K
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! N" ]6 Z$ E: B3 ^3 W) U9 B; \4 H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! Z2 I9 s2 \+ q/ {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 H( O5 D5 f& t* N$ z, f, J: VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, V4 Y# K( I S+ S# I+ |% {+ J+ E+ w
leg down over 2009.- Q; ~2 F- w, {9 T8 Q+ X
# a- F8 s9 B/ K# m! ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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