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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * ^4 F* |4 E( y  q& @
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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1 d& f. t6 `2 _" o$ K. ATD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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3 E! e9 k" ?' ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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& y, l( Y& V) N' ?2 uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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) o% r6 W, C' Z$ ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,' ~6 X/ m- f4 N. }

: }. e9 c8 u" X; G: B[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。2 y( ?4 T7 k+ z, T" e4 Y5 T
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。& P1 u" ]6 o' ~; e. \# g

5 A6 A; ]7 ~/ K. ]: A* L! |[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  m- Z' X4 b3 }1 v3 e跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了+ c- R7 R0 t' E, [
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
5 j+ X" S; O# Q' {9 ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  ^' Y) I+ D. g6 S; U  A* P0 Bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ {5 l: Z+ c/ f5 p1 G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ e$ i) F: E8 R% ~% f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ D% Q' D. R1 r+ P+ ^/ S6 T  Bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
  l5 {- A" ?: x' C; g: Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# e$ `+ u0 j" [" G4 H& a, ~# @7 Q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" ~3 {4 y# y5 z/ ?( amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous) Q; [+ P7 c% K: ^5 `) l) L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: j# L, k, f" P7 b& pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ w1 @! c7 U3 G) L, ?, S& [( k$ ]' [to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 A0 b3 u; O! n4 G/ D  h6 tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& t1 @" Q6 J0 X, ]% |year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) P: _. H" b( M4 b- [; L$ G2 B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# S0 E4 P1 C7 M# |
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 \! L0 ?. A+ S* c% b' t% \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  `  v, S8 a- |; a# x, o6 Q$ iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: q+ ]) |$ e/ n" M) r, d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% W; ~$ O! a# M/ U4 Z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 }2 A: e/ v, Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ F& B: B  H  A/ u& {: Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 \" s6 w3 Z; e+ S$ S- g8 J4 ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 W+ Q+ G8 Z3 \3 {6 {0 Xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, D3 }9 e/ x" a) F7 Z$ u8 Mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is( R7 ]3 A  h9 D) f% @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 {& J" F& m  [& R5 B, r6 y! B( H7 D1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 K9 X7 q8 _$ _# v! o
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! H/ f+ Z$ |, g9 o2 o( f% o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in% o) C8 k1 A8 s4 w/ h! H, [8 d
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 i0 T# T, a4 l/ W5 i* n' k0 v
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% r0 i# j  V2 W0 Z1 R! J
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 w0 w& `# z0 N# S- M
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" a2 p3 J0 }% S+ {, _9 lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 K% d0 d" Z. L$ ~major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& L. [( x* K2 K7 R% R9 {: `1 Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) {. I) P3 ^) t( o; F4 k& crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; U* c7 \+ x6 C% ]: y7 G! AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; W  L. W9 j" a" P5 r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! m8 A) Z  Q3 |% a* d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; Z* l: A. N+ n" p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- Y: \- r% W' y7 f3 ~* y* X, v
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* n- h( H$ r( ^
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 l: \" w: f  ?/ u8 S9 `) `& c
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 Q# v" l  [' B
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) [" V7 R0 X* f" y6 m' K' m2 S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ j1 R* }: ^) O" Q; A5 e% T* lresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 X* E9 u( W1 u+ rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ r+ h. R% e( Q' ?* g4 uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* _7 w1 w) x' U' ^& V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" p; J. T. t& qAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 u  b& ~* l3 S) M$ gleg down over 2009.
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+ C: y$ R% L3 W; d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 T& W/ y. R3 G% T" [0 r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 6 j, `9 Z' @! e& W/ R
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& z1 L4 {( a5 p! }
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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3 S2 F7 z- t. N. n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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