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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. S l/ [% ?' w& p8 A" zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* ]9 B8 y) Z G0 _ X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ ?& G3 z/ V+ s% }% p% f6 M1 o4 u) T
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 ?7 e7 _3 ~% ?; X9 S, l
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ R/ M' Q; w9 I% i% ]6 nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, Y. P. e4 [! ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) ]1 v7 _4 ^- g4 K1 c/ A" _- V/ Kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ e4 ^% W$ v4 A/ r2 c5 o8 K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- O: l7 n! k5 R: \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 c7 f; R- ]7 Yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* R! x% Y7 W; }: \
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 i3 s6 I1 t/ \+ v( q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 g8 L3 h: b0 }8 w* Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# }8 w/ x5 Z6 o3 J- ]6 s
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# K+ h- G% a8 n5 q30,000 new households will form in the province during8 B N" |1 a% [; c* Y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; D) l2 l1 b- ~$ N& d5 g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 F6 @* n5 G: H9 D6 V4 Q/ r4 Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. I' N3 k: u$ R, ]4 ~
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 S( ?3 n e3 Xhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) A% z1 h8 ?, | T1 Q8 ~ x' t) o
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( _* F# j1 x& X' Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% H) B; X& t0 q+ ~9 `( I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 [3 }$ H: b9 `* z! uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is z9 t- e3 a. D3 N8 I
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! i4 W2 F& f2 j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 Q3 U/ C6 b/ ~3 h$ a' e
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) l. ?3 z$ s% ?$ q
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 A) x3 j) }0 M8 k& i
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- {4 o0 I# i7 d/ J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ k/ w/ A9 D B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. k4 I! ?& d& grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" @$ E# T& p& r2 {! S; }1 e: G/ |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' ~- u4 l1 f, [$ d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ F) p! S0 o ~6 i+ [+ j+ n
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 x+ C- [. ~* u5 T! c+ P$ Vrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 `& W9 i; I( w: t/ }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 W8 |* V% O% r8 Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., S( P3 m# e7 q/ j
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan: U" X* M2 V& F. E" n: o4 q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! E" ^8 O8 F4 T+ u3 K) e
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 x2 s3 K1 {( C' }! g nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: f. u1 z* k/ l, G, Othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 A3 d, f4 ~- ?5 Z. D7 ^9 c2 L
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 S4 z8 Q+ g/ b3 Z; o5 {$ ~8 [The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 @: h# u8 e% K3 Q" K s6 ~& Jresale price in February is evidence that past prices. @% W+ ]: h. f5 }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' o3 j) _: a& _3 k$ H& N% B# f& U
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 S' E# N5 x7 h: U7 I6 d% x
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 G, @: y5 h4 g9 p; w. R; SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% X$ j# Q" `1 [9 [: R& @leg down over 2009.0 P& _4 K, u! L$ B
, ^# K8 _2 \* B( e- }
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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