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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.4 N5 f8 M# E9 s- }* x
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 0 M6 m! Z5 W1 c* [, ]

2 f! U2 f6 z0 L! e# X( C& UThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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1 A# w& z) ^  e$ Q8 L8 J"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. & Q$ u( P9 D- P/ l/ x

- l2 X  L4 v/ r1 t# J2 }Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) y# F- R# u  a: M$ A& A
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.9 b  U9 F7 G2 j4 J' e3 b

/ E8 q/ |, `9 U/ L; g"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) b! F* k7 @" H  O, Z0 |

: G/ p- l% u9 D. _5 x& nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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! ]+ K1 e" d0 c" C6 y$ [Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. . D9 @# v" `/ b2 p. @

5 c# ]; Z. M9 Jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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; a) R, o3 }# O, o  gTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
% B. e3 Z; Z* X# j2 b* u  x- F2 F: F( p) J5 f, j( x
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
0 n# p: b: o( W. D% o9 {8 p 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
3 b& B3 I7 v9 F4 K2 d; A跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: u# X" T# `$ }  a0 a% l6 b0 O很多人都回学校深造去了8 _( L( I! e; r1 p* D
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta  C0 q2 k, Y6 F  t* B8 e0 y0 A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& V1 A( N% l! c5 |' L9 {: [# z1 C0 l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" A& V' C7 m0 [8 ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& w& P3 @: l: o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ @3 C# B* E; L% g! Z0 J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 K( C( h/ B9 Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: W! E* j2 B7 @4 i
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 h  I: h+ ~! O4 s
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous$ s- H% N2 c- ]$ Z: P% j/ i: P
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) V9 O1 K* V. X# C2 e- d( D
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 }1 v& I: _! a7 m1 q' w6 Q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) y6 O  u+ I/ Wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( g7 X5 t& D7 i/ X8 \5 _3 m. Ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 h9 F1 _. L5 ]3 o% `" P* t# C
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ F. i8 L  A; Q1 E9 R30,000 new households will form in the province during; S% x8 E; ~& d; J- G9 a2 _
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ ]9 |) k$ F& P0 rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& ]3 _5 N1 X$ Y) `/ a
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 {0 |0 V% r9 u& C: i4 Q2 Y0 k9 m
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ I3 D0 p1 y8 Z4 W3 i3 n3 q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* m' ~+ D  p- z8 A; E2 x, g
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* r& |  ?' `$ n. u  Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 K2 R* V8 w8 K" u8 C
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' a; x, P% {! Z" S8 V$ ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! K7 l! [  e, k: _5 A  Xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; v& i' b4 O% ~& H: y# {
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' @+ c4 d4 U" V4 l/ v
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! T4 H' i) q; l- \; U/ c/ `
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 U2 ~; U  V7 \/ t# V8 x
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& ]/ F. ^+ c5 c0 l7 R8 F+ x# wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 a9 h& g5 n! M. funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( H2 |' t  O' W) `  a9 L
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. R1 L  e2 D" s
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ ~% c: s" y; S8 b. T6 j
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' ~- c. ~" A9 ^* P" |% d
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 U0 i8 }+ Y* I! c
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" [- ~* Y5 w# @' BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 Q/ E4 c0 Y$ F$ N( Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 d4 C8 d( A8 O5 ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 D. T3 D- S( t
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; I) D: M# k* v. ]8 \' Vrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 c) z/ ?8 M/ d1 x
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 s( s* h2 `5 L( o6 t% o5 S7 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
/ ?6 w$ ~+ B9 u2 T( k: a3 }) oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 R; D8 v; \- I$ M! h1 G  gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. ^  O* e/ l9 n( F  |; jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. o, U2 e8 X- s% R$ @* a7 B1 Wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) K( Z; o# [. c* x) e$ w4 D# Mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 X7 @7 ~2 {# s+ U, v5 {- @4 ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! u! F# J; I) w7 w* H( `1 KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 V6 e+ ~; Z0 ^! R7 N  V) [- I% j
leg down over 2009.
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5 q: `1 b" ~8 }7 E& E% J; Q6 H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- p: J/ [# S8 A( H1 N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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# V/ J0 A, Q1 ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 @5 B) ?2 @7 Z8 F  S翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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- h4 d- f$ {# b# bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ a/ P0 ^% w+ o9 L% ]# b

. ]; J+ h7 S- X; Q8 ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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