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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.9 {6 N, K  ]0 w  F0 y

, b8 x# B5 X, t: w9 w1 f6 yTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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0 ^1 a$ Z: {0 r+ H% ~' wThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. : E5 L. u# U: F8 \# I" Q6 Z* R
0 X" V$ O& {7 n% ]3 u. g/ P
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   e, _/ e& t' o0 z2 C

9 K& s! |, t6 l6 gNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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& y1 ~: [2 a3 Y0 O) W"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 4 n7 t5 U! ~9 C* W
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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+ L5 x7 p9 U6 O! j$ Y3 c0 x& [Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. : n9 u; Q5 n6 g+ U

* T5 r5 Z& f" L2 s6 p( e8 C$ ~* vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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1 e; p: t7 L! e$ y& r* g8 }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) r% D% H$ P4 y

4 q$ H. b2 N) f/ B" V, ^# O[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% I) p, F& X0 p6 J7 `" ~5 r; d
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. A; Q( j% h' X. T* K3 T跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ z1 i, A5 ]/ |$ ]0 C( {7 \很多人都回学校深造去了
) O; J* Y+ G8 h6 J5 t' p嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
! z6 i& X+ W6 f! U% b3 FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# Z) e) D9 L1 u: _, a, E' L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 H8 _: x% j+ [% @6 a2 C% }8 Kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( a! a8 H5 X7 D$ s
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ }- a# H& H6 M; U7 Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) l: |: R. u2 {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ \% @0 T: Y6 e3 c* C5 o3 ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- |1 g; j; M- H, S; F/ Mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: c: p) e6 ^( M7 j$ K$ A; A( n/ i
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ y9 S) A3 N& N; F* f0 s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' U. ?3 a3 I3 m* A' z- O
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; ?3 U2 Z# t2 dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' Y* b) `( I  e0 `, z9 `& W
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ e/ e5 @2 l' T$ S& jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ M/ Y" s, w5 Z: h( L1 x9 l3 A30,000 new households will form in the province during/ {2 w! T5 l( j/ ]; {% ~% ~
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ N* }' u$ a5 k; K4 c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 G+ A1 S* t1 @" z6 j3 shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, a( i8 \. H1 ~/ M
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 I" G. H2 [  w# G8 r. Mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 ]6 i1 D5 @- i$ n$ _( V9 g0 y+ H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ a  G: L7 R& a7 M! X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" Z' v5 A2 P  p& ?( d2 }sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! ^. t5 z" q* K" C, _/ @5 v' l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 E2 y. ]( T) B) H2 d1 V5 pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 J5 h6 o% k. k' i+ D
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# X2 J. ]6 v9 k  n8 {, ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# X. C  k! r1 hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  F4 O. \  ], {9 `two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, C- L" u0 y' d; R3 q* b7 ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ e0 O3 r: `) T. S$ eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. B, s, V4 ]9 c* T. P1 rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* Q* v( v7 t8 I7 c0 C$ }  {( Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) U, e* `: t/ k* V& u+ |major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 k8 X2 v: D/ |+ w9 m
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: C  Q9 q. i# C6 m0 }) k" r2 l( O
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& _0 \* ?0 }2 s7 p  R9 x. U% a5 E  bThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" S) X. V# f0 x; A
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- ]& @6 e/ M* R9 s$ X$ H! u  N/ t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
  z# K# U" L; D9 }/ Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 {) K3 ?9 [) D8 P+ u7 L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 _, d$ m, w! j
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' b3 {, I6 \0 h/ c* K- M5 u* {! ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! P0 `+ H/ j" P$ @9 k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! m" [& A" \9 `. b" u  I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' J' q. Q( R% z# j2 e0 W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices: C: R* j9 L! t& `5 f5 ]
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 w% K) H  S$ ^8 H& I
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* {: z0 s* u4 \( K$ E. i( R7 r; ~; V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 {: e4 z  _% G% J) B$ g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ Y8 ?, ^0 T8 |: R5 [3 U$ X6 C* t
leg down over 2009.+ E& s+ H% t* ~( q( x" \
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 Q: H: K4 g- t! u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
+ ^; \  M0 V8 `- \翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* L2 n. ]' V2 u; Q  [  _) D
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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7 Z9 `" N; w! }" B5 t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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