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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" [! g `# ]/ v, O' }2 k/ o" W
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 }% \1 j1 F6 O* q2 ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 M" A- A3 g& \# m# c6 rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 q* X- E7 A3 M! q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) c# f. A8 n$ U* Sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided2 G+ _$ W$ M4 [; i
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, G0 d1 |0 T8 i9 k- A" g
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& c; J5 H f- ~' W) B
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' F: y3 m4 {2 [% ~" ^% P* s- s9 Jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; z. K% U! Z- E8 wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 J& ~. K6 x; t( v/ K( q# {1 [to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: @# Y, K& c* g! |5 f
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 L8 P/ ^$ N. ?/ t/ y8 F
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ b5 B) n- _ v' m, r: N5 ]homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& Y# [4 O) P3 Z: J. c! F# Z6 I% n30,000 new households will form in the province during3 |. {, p- m! a ]
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 F9 t7 N8 E, L1 p. M% c7 hEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 ^: K+ x. L. G( f* M Xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 @8 ]( C! u( _; }, n
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' D7 A7 A1 B4 ^' Thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# d+ b: `$ n! v; h: W/ g, Ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( O# G+ e1 ?% [9 ~! s2 D; q) a
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 J1 h/ h8 K" k' N/ t4 U |; W: zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 X4 w# S+ i, t6 h; n( j, a; b8 J6 P
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 D: A* l' W! D/ P2 e8 m
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 H# O8 x" M* `2 I+ f' o4 l6 h- L
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
Z9 x/ Z" W4 p" D# @% Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 f' p! \4 _2 b7 M6 W* e obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- O* V ^; E0 p* J0 `5 Stwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 C- J# r5 x( V$ G2 Sunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 y! [6 k7 y2 P2 z+ R7 Xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 i E2 f( I' y& @# I
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, n0 A; { L% ~, d* u; w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ @, {8 u: S. J/ r* P- Dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 Z& ?0 e* P. ^0 i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; ?0 O# F V' F( N7 N$ B' Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ k9 R4 c; i; I6 C# e) f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 }0 o, s6 H6 C& ~+ ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' j* I7 X+ G( g u. DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan1 j7 q) R( n1 ?6 [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& P3 g; Y- g% Q3 ?: B( w P; ?
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( q$ x E4 b# O- M! h5 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even& S7 j( ? ~2 K( ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 s, E I/ d- G# f G: Z. ]8 s; @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, X; |# `: ~1 _( I; s$ @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ ?4 Z. S) C% O$ H! b) t
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 f0 P; R" R0 B9 K" z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 q1 O" a5 `7 D. e
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: v7 z6 G3 \5 z- Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. A3 M( a4 j0 Q& P0 m+ k6 F/ p0 `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# }' J% H3 X: Tleg down over 2009.9 t+ x2 e- A8 { M1 k* t
' `) j- q* T0 V2 S, P) {" ?, c7 s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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