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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! ^+ C  |" l# J2 k
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* c1 ^; h% D7 s; {# T+ i/ b$ _' q2 I
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' s  w8 u9 x! L- p: f
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 c# }/ U9 y* g* M! y3 ]- Z0 l# M' Y
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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9 z) D# {6 {* Y6 A0 X% m; fMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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1 s! i3 Y8 r0 K7 N: g. G) Q2 D2 _http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,8 H4 V5 V9 f7 E( u6 O

: e! K5 q/ U: z& M) \. D; C2 G8 [- Q: L  ^[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" ?5 k4 l- M& P! d3 r+ c/ ]+ ` 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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5 d% x% v: e3 D( k; f, S; N3 `9 b[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- g8 f, B" Y) r/ l8 B4 O跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, u0 ?9 w4 J. q$ F3 _: F, K1 b  J7 g% b很多人都回学校深造去了5 o8 d$ S& I# {- _3 O6 S
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- G0 m1 W% G) `
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 m% f5 ]3 r$ T' N9 ^) w) W9 u
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- |8 A) o9 c* q1 e& {4 @$ M
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" f' \6 i& t. Y3 L3 ?6 a2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' j$ p6 c# Q  _4 ~# L# Y4 a5 ?" T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
, P  n. U9 R1 u, Y% }" ~8 \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,+ |6 p2 O: m) F" f; j6 V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' S" e9 A8 L  O$ W6 v. z: b
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, @: X7 D+ v; \  U0 G$ u. A+ @pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
  L8 A: ]) C7 v, z( S5 Gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! F" p2 s. c5 B( V$ n6 v& H" tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 n# h2 r" ~  }/ F6 Z' Y; [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ M* D7 z) ^  U4 p/ R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 U& l8 Y( t$ ?3 j! s3 ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 P4 M2 `7 W: V) n
30,000 new households will form in the province during' e  e+ F1 ^- @  R& @5 Y# s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
, v: `: ~) @) ]3 N7 V9 n  Q- j! iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% K( x6 G2 p! p$ N
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; e, O' X' J& p; Z1 w0 f% H2 U
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 Q& y. k2 y% k. y& Y- \7 R
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 h7 z! n% ~3 W- u6 T, dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 L* I( |3 W2 }+ D( i2 ~5 n- ~* ~during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 U1 ]4 S0 A9 ?1 W5 s! v
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* S& e) A& g% p0 m+ a2 W" o* Aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 A3 c) ~' W! d. z( S  F2 x7 p: \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 I+ M, W. c4 d7 l+ T1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, _# @  g( Q3 ^8 n* Q5 W* T7 f
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, q' y8 t/ H! A1 ^5 }buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ t4 F4 _$ M. a% B0 M" G2 {two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; M: Q! f3 n  J5 V1 u, b+ @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 z% Y# d/ n( U/ ^" }' gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 n( E) F6 a) q$ \: k. ?
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 N0 ^9 q: q; T: ]
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: A6 s; V; _- @' p' R0 umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
: H) L* x  I' H" E! v. K8 S' Nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% A- k& z( k- H; Q8 W2 k0 Srapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' t2 J$ z$ I' C1 WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" M/ t5 Q6 z" z" k1 L/ ]; Vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.  u$ m; t$ }6 I1 T
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( j1 _! y/ p7 O! I( ]# E% ]
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) i+ f1 \2 T* }6 A6 `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 i: P- g/ Q! _1 i7 b$ nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- J: I9 {: ?( w6 Cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 R# D* R( u( A% M8 {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* z$ W2 J1 u6 h+ P  ]2 s6 x1 Z. ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" Y5 `4 w: G" M6 U  C
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# ^6 j9 @9 P4 S. S3 ~1 \# N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- J- \. k# A; t( Q/ R: L0 Q5 I  _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 ?3 i( `/ X! {9 s+ Sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' f, `4 G. u0 O# j' s8 cAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 s8 B6 S: c  j5 X1 }% ?' Q. jleg down over 2009.' \4 p" r( c$ i% g" y: m6 a

0 a6 }* f! L9 ]( I. b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, x- h  E) U) Q2 _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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* u0 L+ B* v& m3 l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ! F9 n( Z  d" c) m! P) i& h- i
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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