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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.. a, {+ D" ~: N3 j4 F

2 P1 P! L& Q5 j6 C7 CTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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9 B4 Y1 [" E$ M8 @7 SThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. " h4 o  A8 ~- `0 n) s) y

8 ^1 R+ P0 E! o"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 u; W4 J' C5 G! p7 E
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.# [3 l4 S9 W7 g( x( K( K. s* n
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 3 V! ^, [5 W* n+ w5 z9 f' K

( [$ M9 q1 m" H& O7 M( yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 [1 a2 K% o& f. K
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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: _1 X; c0 r( y* x0 ]: ~/ @9 Xhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; e" \$ A5 f6 R& u3 V: G1 a
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 ^, M' w% w( v2 v
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

4 W# v5 K' ~8 E, S& U: m1 J很多人都回学校深造去了2 o. y- \# k) c# X, }
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& `: u1 F9 Z9 Q2 ], b! k
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 T( R) }7 o/ n! Y; r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# X2 i* s) j6 K
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; d2 V: ^9 d5 r) I! t; q- J
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: z1 b+ n7 D: @: v6 L% V- \formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& T$ e0 m( F3 W$ Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 H! b5 G" D9 \7 b1 F' |" _% E' nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! a. y! z: N5 e4 X
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 X& ~& H9 X' Ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% g" ~' K' L4 _$ _% w
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( Z, M0 J, a: p, _& P: [% _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ T" O' c( ~# O" ^9 N" f' ^6 z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 {. _" ]$ Y2 P1 ^5 iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# Y( Y; ^6 a6 @/ Uhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. t1 m  b) t: T: W30,000 new households will form in the province during3 b* |( k( y9 r2 G5 b6 I* M, n% j7 T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& X: }3 x4 T% cEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ V# _  a8 b& Q0 O8 V( B: Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 E& w9 z, E% m' y
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 R; z9 M# S; y) |  q  ]- L7 s
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 J( T; Y1 C" Y5 I! Q: lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals  c+ l( X9 ?( `) J' Z5 P9 |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* X4 _, s7 @& T5 q5 z( Q, J% C
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' k# o, x" n  f: n+ e3 {
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 m- ~9 k$ p5 G& g$ W( x, Nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 S4 M( e2 Y8 q# P3 y4 Q. {  |1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ Y6 t9 M% q$ S! U3 osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: U: z" X  Y% r. ?+ obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) e* @- K0 N1 `" ^; |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 X. y% j$ A- u/ V3 M
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- O& R  _- @& o! p2 @" H
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest. V9 {4 k. r9 Q% G* {+ d: J
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; H3 h" o8 h) R) S4 eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& n( k! I7 _( S, h+ Pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' Y; k7 H4 k+ T+ k: }8 jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled- W, l, C/ K1 D# f4 s2 {+ {, D
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 t+ [2 [+ K3 H  y' {  \
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# u! \) w$ j- U1 g/ G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 |6 j+ K/ u5 ?2 IAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
  `" f( u2 ]$ ~- E# ~! thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 h- U. Z/ I  r- S% F) n/ _relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' C* v1 f7 m# J; s1 ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% ~- e$ d4 k' ^$ E5 t! ?; @" Athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& z. _8 R6 B. h5 bon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. K& R" j( l, [2 K( W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! l7 {' B) ?' W7 E" X) yresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. k( j% V+ y+ P) G) jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! B0 z9 x, @% r! |) R( |& X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 I% @4 E2 _% j' A; ^; \0 ]6 k8 U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 o- s5 v; A1 l0 C0 f9 nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! _0 h0 f* ?  n4 b
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 P: b% X: n# Z6 R* }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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$ e4 w6 N% N4 ^/ s6 Z$ F& ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ( |4 A% O6 M$ G2 g
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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