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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta0 u, _) f" q3 M1 D8 b$ w, T
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. S! m2 U1 x1 Q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- G2 Y& Q; W- h; s! W/ r, O
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- K) ~* r) x* l6 P3 Q# e7 S6 U0 S
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; t# n4 e& P, v. F }; j
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; x) @+ ?- H( \1 B: i, Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 D$ D" w7 e- I" h, i) nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) o6 h) G- T0 }. s- @% i. {6 x( \
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 p( l. ~! z, ?+ @# A# W6 a: {
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, j9 z/ L- E0 l q$ P) L; b6 Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 [8 P( ]% x9 q$ c" p3 J/ @( {" q; nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ x, ~$ L# ~6 u, P, Q9 v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- B% I5 I$ F6 S& t( G: c
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
9 V+ i' R$ e7 Q9 Zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around Y+ u1 o3 V! g5 n# o' B8 M
30,000 new households will form in the province during [3 V$ O7 o& ~
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ n: y( K6 h+ ]$ _- K4 M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, }0 t* I: W1 ^- Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 u! f [5 x2 ^3 Vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. r3 y* g# ` khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 t; C! E; j0 i: qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 J) G+ ~2 f4 h$ I) o7 _4 q! Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% E# M4 Z; i5 {" Y5 c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 K3 L% K. U# \7 M% \8 Y5 ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; H; b5 E/ v7 k+ O* O7 E5 vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! v" S' Z0 j+ l. G
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& F" m: f4 z4 v, ?0 R: C6 csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* W# u' f; g" M' `) |& D
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in Y- Q. t/ Y* p
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. w/ j4 w' ~" } Funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# l/ N$ C1 {. K! c9 H4 b3 zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" \- I! F+ ~7 d! p/ M
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ s+ n" I8 S2 D( rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; S+ t2 D! h0 G) l; H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 ^& L7 ]& t9 gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) p6 \4 P) H7 S" Arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., Q2 q Q, a2 l1 z+ H7 H
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ N/ F, e$ N! O; y2 u* p
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& h) c! H# E0 g4 I
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& }' {/ a/ \! A8 E4 Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 ^+ O; z5 w# c4 D1 B# frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% E2 T( @5 q M2 B
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. {0 z+ A$ [/ v' ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 u! J& p2 I0 c: h4 Q* ?; o. G
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- q$ `) q. \7 n7 c9 e2 yThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& V1 k& P# C7 F9 K' g
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( D$ @- O6 k) J, v+ ~' g" Wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# r5 L" w5 ?" f/ x2 w
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" n1 t1 C' n& F- q3 H
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# N9 S: V; D4 C# W7 o! R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* b7 ~" W' M. S/ x+ u$ v' D* Y
leg down over 2009.
2 n; `; U( Z$ p: E! v, A9 D" b+ g/ ^! g s* w, ?, `9 W! ~
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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