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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . V" @- ~& A) X" i4 |3 N! P; m

- w0 O- p% ?& f1 p" sThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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: e2 `  Z& f) H: H"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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: Q' e2 j' H8 v: w& iNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) t8 I( p- n4 J' f* |
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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8 j8 ^( ~7 a. e# ^: E"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. & d' I+ [$ _4 E1 J! g9 \! m) D

2 H! Y$ l- \# D' n% yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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* W0 e+ b; N, {& u4 X  X4 ?Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 I/ [# y9 Q4 O
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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( y( ]/ o# e6 V[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  A% V+ u. t" D$ y7 W* m5 Z6 Y 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
5 f2 x0 g) r8 s1 o7 e, z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了, T8 Y: H1 {' x1 R4 p# k
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* |, [. ?3 {6 ^. z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 S3 [4 W) |: I( H+ Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) ^7 g. v4 {3 t" g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ k3 z, v) B. G) }: H, C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. B) u% N! P+ Z( {1 t' a
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 n; M6 ?1 K6 v; X; h, V( A$ L! ]from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,  C4 \9 \4 }3 I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ A  e4 I  x6 R( Z" {9 x, J; w" j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ {6 d$ z) C3 W, k' w& U' hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 z7 P& z' i& N' j: H/ o1 G7 Iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* P. x5 J% p  M! j9 S
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. Z- U, [+ y# p; wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: p4 l& w5 S- n. d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) }- ?+ N# v4 v# R0 v& D% ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 r1 H$ I9 m( d6 L30,000 new households will form in the province during3 T- E3 I" U- r
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: L5 W. L' ^; i! C) |5 z1 I% mEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& t4 k8 z; ?& ], _* `; b
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) g8 {( W+ d# o
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* L' y1 k5 ?5 v  ^; ~% r) ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 @' a, {4 e* |7 K' h. qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 o- W7 n' d5 t, x& eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# e  L6 Z1 @- d$ P. ]! s; Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 L5 {! w% f7 V( d( |3 eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# G7 {8 D+ S$ U' A( O/ ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& n2 N$ U3 \# L. p0 p! X. Z- ]% A8 `1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 J7 o. j& V2 u. W- b8 G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. B/ ~3 M# d" I; \% v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in% x# u4 ?3 s0 |0 w6 B" D
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 I0 e' }2 ?0 I9 `/ Punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 q! w$ S5 T6 e6 _3 e) q. Y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) u' A; k  o2 jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& ?- L" ]+ I2 W: `7 {
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) }9 o2 H% G! V8 n  @* Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ _/ l6 J$ B' I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 A& _8 x$ t8 ~7 V3 Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( V1 A& w) D) \5 |) T3 `& f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 g7 h* n* i, f: o" ?4 i& Y8 Z, a
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 V' f# }) J' m, {- R1 ]
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* Z& \. N* N1 u4 [, V
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; l! @! L7 _9 G7 z, rrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 F9 s3 _1 h4 n2 Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 y2 S1 G. X4 c2 {& f* S. Y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! D4 h8 R1 \5 g  p% P' }8 n3 t9 Gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% l2 a/ w0 Y3 e* R' C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( t+ B0 Z3 |! i. Y& E9 F. wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, ^  U1 }, n% }/ ]8 x3 E  g# mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 Z" v% U$ i. ]' a2 jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 {* K: l9 \0 B& x" V! ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 z- \+ r, B6 Q- R* V$ AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 T. E  c% v4 X2 @& U9 L
leg down over 2009.
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* m6 Z. C- @9 \) h8 S4 a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 S+ e; B, k6 N; N( P" L8 JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 W5 ~% W" h- X; E; n2 P. y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子' o, s: Q: N6 u) }2 S: ?: \9 f
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments* ?+ U' z3 e- p  B! s0 x- ]

4 u% j) W+ W# m9 @6 n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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