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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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: K  Y" e1 q0 z# TTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. * `/ P0 M# v4 h

0 |* P2 S* W& N) ?! r1 f& M. AThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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; N! |0 C; s7 ^. F0 i; W1 I"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 7 ~. d/ Y4 R, B' f/ g

4 ?* D2 U, c' E% x+ YNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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! n6 j5 E! N: P/ Y  f0 u( ITD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., g1 |  ?  [8 p- C- Z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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( l! p% Z3 k6 R8 ~. c+ t6 ]' vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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- Z# H) F6 e) S! D6 N. p, CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,0 ^- D4 P+ w' A, i
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
0 ~2 @, X% S6 j  n. z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % a  |5 g) u3 I
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
  y$ R8 T% {8 P3 H嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta" a4 Z( r" J. q) s5 w9 e; {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) @$ r& U1 ^6 i' ^2 t6 f! A1 D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, K: t5 C! m( u0 Q% x, B" r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) G& k0 Q# g' p( _9 R
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! W2 ~" e7 P% W0 ]" c$ Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 p8 K5 x6 `$ I" q: Kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( j; K& h- y1 E3 M2 f
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  {* b3 M$ ?1 V& Mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 L; y- x5 [& r& K, Upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' Y# c* S6 {0 C  t. T+ Iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& F* w' \+ x# N3 qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ k5 @2 C2 Y" G) X. {prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! F8 s# V+ S; e2 B6 K9 byear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ Y7 k1 `4 M5 Q7 ~( D) T' ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" J0 g* L6 e0 j% [
30,000 new households will form in the province during, k' L- `' S* V: a" n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 R4 o6 l7 N0 p9 r" E0 v
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 p  f0 I5 o  O; J' Shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 b, I! C% V* f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  a5 [* O& t% o) z8 U9 l. w
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# G7 f' u  \' L" N0 |% {
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 z3 e% z1 ]) Q  K$ e9 N5 G' f
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! N3 l# M3 j) }, P$ S( X7 Usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- u) R3 S+ D* m% t5 {7 h$ h7 T) V! A
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' C/ C/ W- @9 ]) c9 w1 bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& L1 u& [7 F4 H6 [8 [0 U9 [8 a
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: S2 m# [9 T( d8 u
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
' r# |7 u' u. x. N6 \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 A% k+ m# v; z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ e. j/ E2 s2 F4 W8 \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 X& y- b7 ]' tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  I- t5 P- J" A9 X. {1 Jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- x) s3 R9 z: Wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& j. Q2 T# W  i' X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ H$ Q2 N2 B; Y" d$ v
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' \# y6 j- r: `! ^* |6 p% C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." `5 p0 u3 h$ l2 `% v0 q# j
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( H+ r9 z5 L6 E9 V* z% r' x8 d$ ?* xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' K5 V6 d. [0 }4 W7 M
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan) Y+ S& ^0 S6 x* k! J: O. R$ R
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 {! Z/ F  o& p
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ Y! H0 ^+ D0 _' q# B* aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ ]. J6 g  A& }4 b( n/ n
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! K" |- x) B/ {- {% B7 a. \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( L0 m6 M3 O7 ]6 E5 k  f2 A; LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average8 r# \# ~* x" q+ B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices  z1 M! P* V. k+ I( ?& p4 l
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 m- Z& S! A) e2 I$ j- phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 Q8 ?% F2 @" V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, k( r( \/ P' p' {& c& {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( @" y2 _; K- F& eleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 O7 s, O- q& i3 d  Y9 t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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1 a4 R6 h. Y) r( s3 R  a' U. e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. " c; X- c# k* ^% R; M8 U
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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1 n' F1 g8 |! l. H- C9 y, jhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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