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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
; X! ~& d7 V' d# F: n9 G6 J/ p- U; h( L- eWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 f7 M: ]. ~$ y1 m2 l+ v$ _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- T8 ?+ k5 F! s& Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ ]! J# a/ W) O+ f) p& m2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; b( ^" K) V) x/ o5 |9 hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 p4 [) M. Q4 |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ |% m! s$ O8 w# d) sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 b( {2 O. P+ H2 T# Vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous$ |2 M6 ^; R" M- U
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 q: o. g5 L5 g; c5 [4 J1 n
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! [ K' r. F$ pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. W1 }' d c7 v S# _' w7 _prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; Y8 G8 s# Y5 R6 b7 `
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 I- }- l8 \) I7 }: f
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 ^1 }+ y2 P3 c3 Y30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 g; `: S% P- o% \/ o+ C1 ` `6 h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 i2 V% v2 f" |0 N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- d) U; O' V+ M& T: V7 p' V/ Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 d {( E: r$ f' A' yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- B' E# m6 ]" e& F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 F" e6 Q, U, jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 Z. A) V; S- z+ f9 V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
% b9 G5 p7 n2 i8 F% Ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# |' A# \ O# E
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; E) N8 P: p4 u2 X7 f; Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 B/ f2 b9 Q' E0 n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" Z5 f# }& y- |: u' E& J2 @3 Rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. c' c, ^3 d3 e3 T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( @9 K( a6 [0 Q7 H7 u$ ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! j5 B9 ~: ?2 }& Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ b+ r; I, X7 z% W/ d
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ }, c; Q# u, i7 @# I) V
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 R8 R. T- i2 z( G# o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 j. n: n' Z* U2 r' Y6 i1 }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 T) O& u1 x( O, u& P7 S& Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 C4 O' \3 d2 |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ {0 f7 S8 e- o `9 RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 _) b x. v# e b5 ^9 ~# x8 e! `3 V+ h* jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, P( Q. M$ N( H# n" VAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan5 Y& g; j' h2 F% _" p1 I
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- i2 x4 X; q" b% k
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
* I! a* l) _ o% E, t" K+ Z- Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even; j. t- @$ k" J' Q# {4 [
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ e4 I- L5 Q; n/ Q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# e# s2 Z- t3 B! D" w2 k; E* c1 sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! Q9 B! e8 x; `" bresale price in February is evidence that past prices
; `- b$ @$ [& o" A" r! {& Iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 e" H& T* \% Z; ?! u6 o4 U
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' P0 ]7 e! d3 w* Z& m) r8 m9 U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 O; r3 ~/ J* E* w( ?$ ?, M0 \
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 j0 E; a) J) `5 X; c) E wleg down over 2009.+ f2 z+ |2 u* t8 D4 t& B4 i m+ S+ v
/ T6 n/ G8 `* @' v/ e, s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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