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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
! @: E5 E0 Y5 q k0 TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ E3 O3 ^ Z8 [/ }' X" d
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 I6 E" ?! L9 y& m( ]are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 ?5 p X5 d4 E$ A
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' [ D, L6 C7 m3 C! Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& m# d& h* t) @' Z3 h/ j. q0 c4 cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( m$ K; @( y6 ~! R
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( V, |4 _8 I; i* s$ O& k
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous$ [9 t6 X, n( \7 L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 Q/ r; D" @ P0 s$ Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 D8 Z& U# M2 b" O# I% ]2 t
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; `. ?2 K# t% c4 f1 Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) d0 k( Q1 b6 K8 a' q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ Y9 {9 t- T% M' i- J6 yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ W6 u L- k, M: `30,000 new households will form in the province during m1 i4 S4 I+ J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& i2 T5 k4 e( pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 R: U. y$ g- v4 m7 [" r
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 b. C( V9 V, g6 c4 Qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta b0 o5 C/ ]# W! f/ W4 R: G( I; p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 c4 A. L9 Z5 P$ Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 W, r% d) t/ @during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' z/ z+ Z: ?( J9 t7 ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ N; O# o, x, z+ Z
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 H, z8 B% @; M" k- G ^8 z, mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 l1 q+ N: l" x; C& R4 a' t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 S9 O! j; |9 i. ~
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 S- J% Q2 g& g2 q1 E+ N
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 C6 }. N8 J8 ~2 ?4 X6 K& Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ Y, {7 U! A4 P" {$ v% a
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 V5 Y) }/ K% W# j; [6 f) I2 d
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& S0 n, v# o1 M
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 |4 A4 N" \+ D) @) a* {9 i6 h. x
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 X! \; A3 X* L+ N! a" U8 x/ Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* Y% h6 o0 {; ~; n' p" B- Xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! k0 X! E9 _% p# b, G0 M1 ^3 p8 Z, {
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 D, _( L- s% ^- s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, S8 ^! @. O% V7 f3 A3 |boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ @2 _: l" E+ ?3 Q7 }4 Q% OAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 Z2 K- A1 X, j9 V4 Q8 t" Qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 W7 A2 Z# o1 l6 @/ l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ ~4 n+ {6 h% e) b* ]+ Bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# g9 X$ p' _, e, O3 Hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 p4 ^2 [( n" P ^) v- Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 O. C: [3 S$ [3 N* g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) p3 J7 E* f; F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices" u5 j. d2 ^- E0 h/ d, u: E* s5 h& S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. V5 }3 v9 @9 n) Xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* Z; C, F4 ~: K( c6 }$ [deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; L. d; H$ U6 l4 U; {% C d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% R1 \. i! T! u, _% P8 I# I% Jleg down over 2009.' I( L4 K' X: i8 m5 I, H# B
8 P [3 [8 j. \( k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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