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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.; w! w# |! z  ?& T2 i
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 y, X( H& A0 l
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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- E  n2 _( X" D8 [9 @3 H0 K8 ~"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. . A1 g0 Y3 @2 r0 G. F

. b% c" G) T' e! `Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( ?7 A+ |% {# D( O5 Q/ E, X
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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* {5 f% B9 c3 c! O# RMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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! J+ j- N( O9 b3 ~+ [+ F/ iTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, y& K. X( F% O( ?  V
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
# r2 b' L  L" C 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。/ I" U( f; }6 l* ^  H
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
! [% N9 I5 B- ~% Y: n$ r% b; s跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
! y! X, y2 t! U  `3 f& f% Y嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
6 ^  y4 r  j4 s; NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 X* \: u8 e+ |* x2 Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- Z* W' W) U0 zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 j. i4 ^2 d' c  A/ }' r8 {2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% h% S9 c( M) s8 t$ R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 q) @" j* ^1 n  d+ T& @" c
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! p& }  P8 F3 {+ l% {( y
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# M/ b* y$ h; V1 ]
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 E: B/ e8 A/ u9 O) Q4 f" ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ x* a7 }2 a, U* e- T% P4 D
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined9 S0 O: E7 x. [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 a. I/ p' a" W- x/ C7 z: Kprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* _) [5 s9 T5 B! G4 _* g! }year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& N* K+ t, @3 a* F2 G
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 r' _' D( F1 f9 I3 x
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 c/ Q3 {& q; {! {, ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ o9 M3 C4 V& _" U* I; bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* l# n$ n8 A0 shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ F- o8 z# b# L( R# n& A. {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
5 N( g( I5 S/ A$ Bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# q8 h- F0 Y) T" _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) J& c2 r1 t9 T4 P* b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( j2 J" s1 P6 f9 G' [# t  M- jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 X5 c/ Q7 }7 E5 `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 |2 F. F3 `- b0 S
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# U  ^0 d# ~& A4 x; C1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- a$ t% ~; [$ osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# L# X/ b; }+ G! x* R% Dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 R# d  b' a3 O6 }4 Q8 ^6 T
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 u- c( p) F) c- `$ Iunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( C% n/ v& [+ T8 [8 M2 m- [; _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 Z0 e* j4 h  @
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# U' h! ~4 U7 \4 a% nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& Q7 x1 B% h& b: Nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# d# E5 ^6 o) zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled- `; g- Y" h$ |9 z
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 j+ c% c6 @: o$ J3 l. N1 b
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ A$ }- h" u6 ?! p
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 P6 k" d+ V3 A/ U# B/ |Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
# D8 h5 U( a/ {- I6 z7 yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! b! I+ [6 l) {
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- _: a* O' ~+ ?
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even& ]9 k& F* z$ F: S: Z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 s2 X& e) f9 lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" Z3 Z* S  F/ z8 J- yThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! F1 s" s7 C! G% r& P: C
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% @4 X" O  M1 Y0 C+ ^$ d$ L, nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 F; t! ?% N$ f7 F* O& x5 Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' ?1 ?6 ]/ p6 q# A# h" Z1 C; \deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 s& d  g; ]3 CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; s' }$ p% T0 Rleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( V0 d' a- [/ n1 N4 x9 L9 ~. a
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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) ^3 g# t1 |" M; j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" j" U' i3 w5 c* F- |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子: g- \6 }, \( J# S$ g* ]  ]/ m
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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2 b5 U: [; ~6 v& E8 L6 E9 x6 g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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