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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / j- q6 w* j+ Y2 Z0 U6 E* M! d
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 0 J" E8 P" a8 A5 u3 k
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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3 }7 S# h0 e$ ]1 \" gTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( D/ a3 H7 i6 i9 {. b# K

& p( o0 ]4 s2 B3 M& e$ Y! ^/ ~9 F"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. : G6 U5 O3 T' B- N- j. V/ @# D8 }0 g; [( X
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year./ \. k  U/ H* m! v

; N+ n8 S) [/ ~- O, W/ a0 k2 dMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- H. U6 U# D0 I

  B, R; Y/ ?5 m+ `" g# h0 n: d[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% I! `& S3 W$ }. m. `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。" c" B+ X$ k  C+ y* Z
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 Y2 ?; M0 Y9 P' J% e$ l  \5 `9 F4 L跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

* g7 C! M4 G& h: |+ [很多人都回学校深造去了! R& h2 {' N) [; |0 Y* p- \: @
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
( B% h. \7 e4 ^# |* p2 e3 c/ l2 NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ F1 x, ~2 s5 G! G0 d0 w1 Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* e5 `. f+ Y! o; q0 G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- t7 ]; D/ f, `3 E7 N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& y' v; a0 H) X+ a5 z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided4 L3 s, g5 v4 P( w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- ^3 V2 D, e( G6 q" G  r
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: z4 |: d% C  I5 Emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ I% D$ O! Y7 r% K3 kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 f+ b7 K3 V# Q* I  @+ V3 f" rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; q9 J6 c7 D+ h! q) u/ T; b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 r* Z# v3 ~" J# P' u+ l
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 ]! y  g- q( j9 ^# m8 |  dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," v$ F% ]0 B. }2 s- I6 l6 d) L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 W& z4 W) h1 d% B7 W* o
30,000 new households will form in the province during" @  O3 k& [1 C$ l6 o, T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 Q; |. y  I5 iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 g3 z" x6 f( o% f/ [4 Y/ ^7 {  R. f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: k6 {1 b; A) l  \7 k9 F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# D. z: L8 O" O7 w" a: ]has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 j) V5 D( Y. Y8 Z0 n, b; ?* `households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 u1 s# r; p: u7 _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( \" e7 ?( l$ l# Msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  W0 b7 K% X; f% K2 f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. U& W; `, h9 }; H+ l; yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 N4 o# ]% t( [- d& B( h  g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; k. W" h' I) B0 J$ D  K' N% j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 j: G+ r9 t: g
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ x) S* [) H9 g, p: X  a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 R) J" s9 P+ }9 x* v6 o4 J  h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
* @2 t  M" s2 `' e* ounsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 x/ w9 k" ~" i+ K7 G/ v0 Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ M  p0 y8 A# t  M( I9 |1 h, d
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  ]% z6 q; }7 Z6 h% U. T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ z# R0 b3 p% K6 J# l- U5 b
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled* d1 w# r8 `- M: v" @
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 C2 ]  p3 e0 S6 IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 @+ Z1 ^% S$ [; U6 h; z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 s% W$ e6 v3 q, ^7 h1 D: B! C. c# _
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ U8 o7 P% N% whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 Y% s. @. Z+ }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, a! r  i' O: K  iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" Y3 L% f& j0 `# |5 Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* T3 A2 x" l) N6 F& y' g. P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; v) j6 y! h/ B9 Z3 `5 _# x3 UThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 d, V$ P" y+ b4 S: ]$ e! Oresale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 m7 A6 y1 }: c$ C" Dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ Z& v9 l% K/ o& J1 Zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 {& |2 M5 w: n* adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; a  Q( \. w5 g+ U8 P/ V5 X' `5 V: P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* O* g: S7 l1 ?leg down over 2009.+ c# ~1 _7 W' H6 C/ L

! p& \$ @! ~, K8 h% f8 a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- N. T8 k4 ]4 l, l
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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# D9 V7 j1 {  X+ t2 \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- T1 f5 k, G+ j+ r& E: M9 @翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments& c$ j* a% b4 ]# l  Z* W

) C. z# m4 s8 q) N; G# @! m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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