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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" V* Z9 y0 ?" |: J9 z% [Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ Y( ]+ ?0 e* K, dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
# A0 m; B2 o% ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" k: x; e( ]" d. M& G1 H: x
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* w: Q) y) n7 h0 U: |8 {% bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# O/ ]+ q8 q/ s6 {# N6 {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; z/ u# ~9 Z" q7 K- r
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, u! _/ Y3 @( b8 d7 Kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous( x7 Q: C0 _. O- {& F1 m
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! E6 x# d7 `) i2 `9 Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) v! D1 A' J5 F- L0 M' G! mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% E( _8 u# m2 W. X, D! ?* Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 o( ?5 E8 C& r5 s2 [year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! P I5 T* M& g* c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! S0 F3 {$ f7 S+ j
30,000 new households will form in the province during' u3 e S7 Z/ [0 J H& A- b, b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! O, B9 f! k6 D/ n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 u3 ?& i7 V! z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 V: y4 S/ I" A. }5 h! W X4 J8 D& pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- Y5 B9 R$ W- w. [- ^has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ y j0 W, H+ y1 x, w
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( p* C1 a8 ?) s$ m5 j. X& l3 {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 N. ^# C+ f& c: w9 V& I1 bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! A, X+ |9 s+ ~9 Y" B+ ]
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- `: h7 \2 L& H
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 ]/ _0 [5 N$ r! p1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ H5 Q* B4 p; y' p, n
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
i! N4 d: D9 Zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% x; {5 P: U+ C7 Q, Y$ }- s4 gtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) }6 q" i( G' j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! l8 e, A- `! Y( \" U: }# `: B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: r0 ~6 B5 o8 A+ \4 E- |
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" z! `4 Z5 k+ B: c" o% \resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ u# D0 E) c) G) ]* D# Z! Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, }; `3 e$ d. X5 k3 h( `& _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 M @+ [9 b3 k
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 ]$ `- r5 q4 ?+ t, A6 }+ Z' @: ^, cThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 z; }' D$ R Q* T
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( V; n" l' j% w7 Y; H$ E: NAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan* N. J& {+ E y' W1 A
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 `7 f+ `$ P$ M4 N; e/ A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' x% {2 [9 a, I" D# E; e5 x( i
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 s/ G$ Q) ^" l$ M5 D; o6 r4 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ M8 [. n) Y5 H6 y: }2 S
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 r" q5 t/ O* [/ M: I1 p
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
}- [1 v1 d: W: i+ w' tresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, Q, e. S( m/ }4 q, Y A! fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 h7 F( ^1 @" _
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 h% R7 i) l1 S$ m ?deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 K# d: ^8 k' [' q& z& h! MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% H" F4 \0 g/ D5 W! F$ z9 P5 }
leg down over 2009.
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! ~6 O4 a. h3 |, [# Q8 g' B[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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