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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 3 l) h; n' C8 }, K7 N3 h$ {$ K2 C
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ' {% q# `4 h; y! J( p* T9 o0 J
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. - o$ M" x5 p" G6 N3 G

' j7 J9 O$ a& w, e" o  aNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' F* Q8 |8 J4 J, n6 L

& e: z& l  o% qTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  b1 Z# S4 r& s  ]: L+ K. K6 W

2 W  \( R' ^  t  g! I* b" ]"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.0 U7 `, }. K/ r# D" v  j7 D. c5 \' {
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 5 c: c& c. S' a$ l

( X! J( C9 I3 @# vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,3 Z  ~3 K, I  ^# r( r' W
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  s  a3 T( Y6 T' w" W2 m& @0 V 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- N5 y' Q5 x# n- w5 K; i[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 O1 y. u; |/ O! X' N$ M# Y; ?
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, _& s: a7 M* H" }; m很多人都回学校深造去了$ d* i/ y) w8 g9 @: X1 G7 u, b
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
4 d  p+ L0 T" b8 W  NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ ]; O& F8 G8 V8 b2 E7 e
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 }% k, J, v( l% xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 E& K5 ?; e# H! Z8 g3 |$ q; k
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- J+ ^2 y5 H. N- u4 H. S3 Z: m6 a. {
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 V0 O% e7 r5 Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  k& t8 E5 P* }7 i, t! P7 pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. [6 T( {% g9 |may even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 P  w& H) g  W. ~- }
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' Q- V, P$ L4 r3 V; vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" j9 j) D% O- B8 C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- {1 w6 J6 F+ N4 o1 ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) S# S! b3 A6 [' K
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% y# p7 u2 t, Y2 ~
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' }, x4 }2 H9 p2 H9 ]
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 E+ u, d8 c" ]' D$ n8 a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 u8 ?; M- y# \' n% k& e, J
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" J; u5 t6 c2 ^  E, g5 o1 R6 Vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( S" P& E: K: T* @& _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% A* {* ~# T4 y2 |6 k/ Lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: |) u- q. a+ v$ Y. r5 M% f5 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; W6 E6 o$ D. j' l( K: Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 S* v: `$ p$ n* C: k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* |5 @2 {5 d* v* }clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# j( e: D+ N! s8 a
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  n5 {9 N/ P; x  u6 M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- `* j4 m# h4 J; Y2 n: e: E! \
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
; E* ?5 f# ~2 \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! ?& l; c1 u) Q2 c9 D# {2 q+ O
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 B9 Z! R- K+ _7 C6 s2 D; Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 E8 \" R, T3 c! ?2 M1 c4 e3 Yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* d5 b; z- w4 g; A! |# lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, \" u! a& b7 c! @# Eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- [3 ~+ R" j+ Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! x. P3 q5 w* ]$ q9 Oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) E% O+ S" `3 h; Q# |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 g1 m4 m! U* F# M4 j" S/ T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& C  t9 O$ ^  E# u9 R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! N6 ?: W) R. K' i, A: L& DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 P6 `! P" r' ]2 c- X7 L; W: G+ y. Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" M4 S- }5 v' `/ l0 y9 b  F& }7 lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 s- `8 ]6 g" g) [2 uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ M- L- V) t& ?, V9 a5 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- \3 r* F' V* I8 P+ ?
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ l0 y. _7 G' Q1 L4 b7 q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. ~2 o. s. T7 Aresale price in February is evidence that past prices) z. w3 k1 A2 V
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' N6 c& O6 Y  a7 E5 j+ V. B; Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& W8 ^$ l) p5 ^5 h- Y, t
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# T( `) e9 n8 ^! J' b3 i2 ~$ B( ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' @& z* L/ ?7 a, R% jleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) n) ]( {# |0 I& C0 W) n8 pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 w/ H  S* r6 i* Q" T翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子% `7 }4 G( c# Q5 C' T# g* h! e

9 [) c- s7 A: p7 q* |! z) @; Uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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) z7 W9 D9 Z% g& N4 X" z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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