埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2612|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* c0 r+ X7 h6 d* _8 [5 g4 f* B

( x+ a. m, y! wTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
% Y) U- S) [- B$ |  t& E' V' u9 |
$ m5 _# S4 O* w* |) ~" IThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. , W' s4 d) }  f/ f
9 m/ `- G- m4 o  X' R: f
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' n0 S+ `. t9 z3 F  S  D% e

) l% ]/ d" {- N! INow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) k, m1 [" H/ U, Y! w& V
) C, z0 L: f' ]+ Y+ u6 D/ h7 W
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.7 ^: c: u4 \2 {8 @

- d5 Z% B# X+ v$ n2 b9 ^# }"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' K. T0 t% h- d) l& B) @

+ J7 T: H/ p. m: Q1 {# |) ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.( E5 ^5 a8 H8 J

2 s( k. F' M* _; QMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. # c: @% m. e5 T& `" U+ D" `

; v) I- G& z! s$ y1 v+ Uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

, u/ T. p, D  S
0 d5 v6 c+ W2 Z' T1 _+ gTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- N& ]5 P3 d5 T2 H. I; R

. \, T# ]3 g7 V1 n[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% k& g) g$ R* t  R# R 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ u- V0 ^+ Z% j. W2 j

7 t, j* w8 [9 _' A$ f( I& r) S9 r( d[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 " {: M8 [8 ~3 {) M2 O/ @' s$ b; O' q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, C4 M! ]; ?6 n2 i$ n很多人都回学校深造去了' t7 e" y4 u1 Z+ s( E: @
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& K6 _& L% [; M4 l- g
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. }6 X% v/ J* H, r3 N9 @2 I
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ m& e1 Z$ [$ O4 \2 g0 D1 h) x/ C
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; {- C& [+ A. r! P. g  g" M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 ~( u4 e( m; k1 b! M- o$ V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 {3 [: L9 M2 u# rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 I5 a# e9 D3 I7 zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) J# l3 t9 y; f8 X7 ^# b2 j1 N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 |- K8 o$ S( D! v1 C
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% i" h( ^$ W2 N1 F* A% iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. c- {8 F) O( v& B# ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- A/ u) j" v8 R8 h& `+ K
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' x1 u5 p4 s( {+ {
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 U+ o: Q$ h1 [! N. z" N7 `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  W2 U8 X7 _. c/ F6 a8 E30,000 new households will form in the province during; X# `# T8 ^- t' S5 V+ u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. S5 ?2 a/ d: ?+ e
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- Q) v  o5 X7 i* F4 {" v) c$ j. Rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- p6 b; H. ~/ Y. Y# \1 D
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
  G- v( h$ S2 u% }5 F: v9 E. f, ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 I% `8 A9 {, D: h, L! ^6 H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( Z" c* S3 E8 i- |# v& R1 }
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" ]% Z, ~  }% |; ?' W0 g4 Y+ ?7 bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) Y% K  {, F# }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) Z6 T5 V+ A% v. \
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 N5 @) q- D, V- X8 y; j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 O; X4 e+ a9 v2 \9 C, Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* b& u+ D2 G, f9 L
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ D: V% @" W! ^
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 K. v& x( z( p' h: Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 b4 X* r# W' l9 S% e+ g1 ]; Z' nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% S0 ?' D4 z8 x3 o) b" _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& M. b( w2 E+ c- t6 n
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 p! a! q/ N. w- s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 X, r  A( L/ zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 q/ t* q- B# h7 `1 L
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 b' R0 p- w, u) a9 E+ v8 t0 yThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 A" T  n. c  Q5 Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' K) P& W& B- O. e: R4 Z% r" a
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 a& y) ~# G" F0 F) ]: J# I  |
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 ?( }, `) ^- u' Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 K7 P3 H1 R7 I# O# \
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 [% r  z; U) {+ Z7 L8 y" {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 N9 T1 ?7 G, \9 `2 N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 M- b5 `4 l# d: b1 P) \/ BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ x2 \) W0 f. j& y! v+ `3 |+ G. mresale price in February is evidence that past prices  n* j/ ?1 {. z, [" c  A
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 }; \$ E" {* X. Qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 t: j- {, [5 o% u3 cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& s) Y* o! E7 E$ n1 u. @6 ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( Q- J: @; D+ X
leg down over 2009.4 g4 |7 a6 U  J' l; r2 K' {
9 k1 o4 C- d$ f' B
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 W6 r0 ?' O2 ?Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
! G' V1 X$ M( Z0 S6 h
9 P3 M% E: c- B$ W
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. + g2 R$ D5 M7 v0 P
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
' K; t: e+ N3 X1 J( V) \' A( D" t1 D- ~* Y8 C, y
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
8 g  D" S# I' d* x1 x) v2 Y( E- s! y! Z2 Y! ], e5 t
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-8 09:41 , Processed in 0.141935 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表