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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 0 C: f& @8 C3 I; N

* y0 R1 F0 I; T" Q& LThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 L4 X7 L) X$ M, d# w0 {) n
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 Q' a5 W6 R6 Y1 `' H3 U& W
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.8 p/ [% x! l% Q

( J2 N) M! ~0 rTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 F6 g2 _. F1 K. z% r
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. : W$ T  E3 a" s" B( F: y& z8 G
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- [( G: J$ F" s5 R$ r" O

8 m2 t) d  v( O8 {+ z[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
: }1 S, b$ ~8 u) @4 @ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
6 X6 d$ {2 c3 S: d: @( c+ n! E跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
" W3 ?% F* i. W嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
+ V7 Q/ e# K/ f/ @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 R% p+ D. O3 Y' C2 N3 K
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, z6 D2 G/ y! E  i. p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- Z7 ~8 t  W2 E2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 H" ?" Y. N  h4 Z0 |2 y# E; ^
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 s( V7 {% q# b1 D! r# x- r5 e" J  _( Z1 ?from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* a+ J9 z/ }' ?: u, ^. X) T% nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 h4 b3 U* N0 Q3 v
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 a5 m+ K( M; L3 U1 H
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) a# z% T- [& `* s" X
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( g9 z! Q% w" V# `1 Tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 W7 i) O8 Z! ~9 i6 N7 q) C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& w& B+ t5 n1 E% i" Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ h* G# Z9 j0 w' s) h/ j0 y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 ^& y, n0 F  P) N2 P30,000 new households will form in the province during4 Q6 T# e& }/ }; [5 E) Z1 _5 c+ ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ I/ u% O- @& o* l6 dEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 [  c2 s7 S7 f5 G, ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ v4 ]" }% d$ C4 W1 f+ oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 z) `7 W; g0 ?7 Q1 `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 b) l" ~* |' Y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( L/ ^$ ~; }5 M9 Q  w% D$ xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: V/ S% X4 h; I* z4 _  u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ W$ A  k- Z* l7 Y, \$ ]
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# j% T9 p" }- r5 F
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- e4 L& n, u4 w. U* ?
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. f0 m- A/ g& O) D* g; ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 v: b' X# \6 j" \3 {1 w% Cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% z6 w. h0 _2 A* [: ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in  J3 s* w( N. Y9 R/ G( m
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 s, t8 A" S) e3 G2 Q# a4 s
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 ~- \( l' Y0 G& N
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 ~* ^" A* Y% c0 I3 h
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ {8 ?! t$ n* q! n/ Q; c2 Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' [" r' ?6 q5 S3 F! L. L
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  d0 F2 A9 N2 v5 L( |" Drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ s) v& ]7 k2 v+ e7 }  D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! j1 Q3 @1 N3 \6 M
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# m" m& w! n- r8 r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ z$ U+ `8 I3 K+ {/ khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% y. z( l1 N2 [2 [0 Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 I0 V6 C: z, e6 e
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 X4 U' v. G( u$ Q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 g  x; M9 O: m6 i# \5 ]2 }. y+ Aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.: b& F2 }* {0 ?( {
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. T, u( O: ~! i* ]/ l  [* s2 N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices( F. W: `9 ?7 q: \/ g' J4 p- ?
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  F2 e, g) l4 k" s- d
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" h2 x1 ]; Q5 ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! N' @2 ]* v8 Y# B! LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, h9 L$ r' Z3 [5 yleg down over 2009.0 |4 ^" v4 i- v' P( s

9 `' Z- p7 b6 K% g7 ]9 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 o7 l4 z. O1 Y6 bAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) L, t% _8 e; G% b
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; @4 f0 _1 O, o) F
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments, n* {. Z( r+ I( X0 x! d& v

# _9 ~7 s: g8 r0 M0 y  Q: F  ]7 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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