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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* I: {: \8 P0 h9 }% W5 z$ |; r
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% O9 \2 a* ~4 t" w+ e. Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 A, V3 }, @$ n/ O9 U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 N( L" o% m: K0 n2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* P9 ]! `' C8 J) P/ y5 S* G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided ^: [, N4 {: c" h; u+ W
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 ?+ L7 ]# i' |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 b& v' r# g+ W: e7 l
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, f# Y+ C! M F# F! O6 Y$ cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# Y* G8 M* _8 K$ `7 D% b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 l6 k4 q% j7 G p' ?5 U8 m3 r4 \
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* C- o: u: W7 vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ q+ T0 W" Z7 H) q3 B+ C; Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ ]5 m" t: c/ Y! v5 M9 ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ v2 e, N9 C- o) u1 W1 N30,000 new households will form in the province during
* l7 x5 v0 X: X8 B. d$ u- z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 z' F0 `( n, Q4 k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! |% J3 K4 @4 }, @, q# Shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 p6 @: y" l$ fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ d0 G0 c1 R- m) C! O# `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 c" G4 Y% B" U. M8 E8 ~households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) h# }- a! \; \* g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) N+ |# Q, v# [; z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# ^. h+ u2 `7 J4 @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 b0 [( [# f% V, Z+ Eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. }1 A2 ?! n% @2 t$ o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 ?( a( k8 y7 V
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. _& ]) A/ g# z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 y0 _. @: D# h, r- B
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in. `8 ?- ]0 ^. z& L2 B y1 j
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ ~9 m! w- X7 b/ u8 Z8 Z- Junsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 _3 `. @- K3 B6 ~$ v' C+ r( n. V& mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 u+ Z N( l& `6 y- h, {/ vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' B9 `$ T; A1 G# G- I0 O2 n# jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 J! c a" }# {of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' Z" @+ v+ j s( }( m! x5 [* U
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, Z0 o! N9 e5 X( g7 i" d: \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& b- c7 s- x# ^ A( L* A# ?0 x2 {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. J; Y7 I( w8 r" yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 ~7 F; n! v( u/ v! _housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 t- w( i9 W- R* u B4 crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& ?, ?$ w/ S$ h1 S' U* Y1 C' D0 pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
) i z7 s7 H/ o' q, x1 D& wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% p6 E: o4 S7 d" M# E1 k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 ~/ _: K8 s! E' UThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ ~( D8 {+ {3 o) i" ]! ~) {% [resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 ~, ?0 r" A+ _2 \5 V% t4 ]exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ L: G9 q) G* G% L3 k! ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 P7 }* z: u6 a& n9 T% J/ i8 L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 y) @, s t& JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, R2 Y& p, ^( x$ {2 F$ b8 r& _- ?
leg down over 2009., L! U6 X2 t, M2 k6 `
$ _, g7 D# L4 @! n) A# }. K6 N* R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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