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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.  q! _' n% p% l% T# {9 K( n# |4 Q+ C

  T! Y% I6 b) V* cTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 N$ F7 }5 n9 m) u/ @) b

7 ^- T# x% o& z7 c, k; zThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. + S7 h# D4 T) Z3 i7 r
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.6 _' S. V/ @! A( b7 y  y+ d

5 U& N! d$ d( h) f" VTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( i( E- A: A3 W# ^: A1 V"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
% D" |9 X) g5 B" x, H. \/ Y
# U" x& e5 I! I' DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, }5 Q$ B. y& f+ C' R: {$ _( \Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ! ?" h4 a& c* Q1 ?

6 `* ^8 w% I9 `) h7 w8 nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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2 q2 k( n( l9 o3 tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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7 B+ L& w; i9 S$ K[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ [* h. N5 X' Y; `  r 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
4 |9 I9 l0 V9 V& M. ?  C跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

/ ?1 _+ Z, l& [' `* C6 a很多人都回学校深造去了
/ e- k+ L7 f. L嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta% H) ~1 ~) g1 [
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 Y  x6 g/ V. X9 Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 o* ~+ |7 F- ?$ _  a0 mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 T0 k6 N( B9 U3 [: W. D
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# p/ B0 @, i% ~. B5 gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( H$ `$ Y. E1 jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! i  x& q3 G% ?! b# q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% }  U  P& u0 y4 f6 U8 M; h$ {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous$ F0 Z6 G# y5 [! w1 \$ x
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ [' K. i: c" w' E# Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. B+ q7 @+ V2 L
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 O) K1 _6 E1 H  ~prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' N6 G0 b6 \8 [; B+ u( ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,  E6 {, \* O( f% M* Q7 p, y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) {3 k/ P! q% s' I
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 A+ k5 z5 u$ K" b1 U- A
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 S" v1 ?# v& O% O% t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" A/ G  y8 `) ~% S7 M
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: u& S* ?6 }2 {/ ?+ ]9 {/ A: N( |9 sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 t" o5 N! P( N$ S( E: r
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: W( M# C3 d) l5 y4 m/ E
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! _3 L3 o# ^) S8 r& W, Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 T+ H9 E3 E1 ?sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, M- o3 k7 ^  {9 n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' j! n* |, N& Z$ v  Jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 n; Y& {$ {; d# u/ u" E  ]2 J0 N7 m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* B3 }+ `% N0 @/ H5 rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 G" n+ F  N6 H0 P
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ r# P9 L: o/ F  W! atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 C5 y- K; A/ @, Lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, |) J& l3 l* u# c( Y- x
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* N* R9 d1 J+ s* P5 wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ y, t2 }& ^, U# D8 i' d5 ~resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 I3 c1 c: R, h8 x8 J$ kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. Q9 U# i, G- [; R- iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 a* e2 p( a1 J% S0 l, Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
) A0 L4 @7 D! k. [1 FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& m9 e3 O" Z) vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# N+ |4 h: G7 Y- h, H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ q6 ~0 |/ `4 c2 u# zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& t( z  ^- T4 j+ [% [; y1 qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale  g. @  n3 `7 d/ T; N# B0 A* ], k
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even; C$ T( X7 b& s3 e4 m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! @* ^8 r! m) Z2 i1 m, m1 ~
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 i9 ~! ^4 z/ x+ Y3 ~" r. `1 y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ Q' ]9 d1 s  y
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
* ?: I! v+ F0 ?! Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 H1 ^0 c* k# @9 I- Qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 ^3 v; k; j5 r
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, ~! t% F4 w4 Q: Y5 e5 ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 K0 p: ~! l& ]$ ~' X% p
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 l0 F+ G% ?2 I; ^3 UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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" E- q  O+ z: V0 m- i" ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- d+ i7 r9 S* T翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子/ z8 O" m+ A& N% ^4 }( }
) s4 I3 x+ j/ D: y" V$ B
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 ~, s9 @& `' ~/ I- F' R& [
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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