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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 e8 C1 E0 V- [3 j e6 S4 i. b
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. w) T" @: u! r! V5 dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ y. E- c7 O$ r+ S+ v4 x: h* N* B
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: A- H$ e) l8 V3 _
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
I ^6 o) Y( J9 a; ]) H% Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
" p! Q3 }, b3 z w) V8 Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* ^3 R/ b5 @. x0 Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- l. C. ]; O- y/ Y; g+ f
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous c6 {6 }: l* _0 |" l% \7 p& n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* ? p, x6 W0 t! ^( V& ^
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" m: E8 R4 N$ n. g) I! y/ ?; @' `, rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ |( Z8 u7 C4 B s1 cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ G' m$ F+ X+ h5 L
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
% _2 W* _- {' K4 r9 e. w+ ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) W( U/ {0 E( ~( x* I% o7 }3 Z: W( p30,000 new households will form in the province during3 Q! d$ ]" g* X6 y5 R; I' k
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* y; b! W, s! q- FEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 r& d$ K" v; Q4 D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" U3 w& G3 \ C5 F4 ?8 E p' }
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: X p) m, V% v1 Z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- _4 G- j6 Q M
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 g ^' x9 H# Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 R- l; ~3 o0 a5 {% M
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" g0 p; l9 D! i6 k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 E4 B4 ^$ @$ c
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 m, x; z/ I$ C- [
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ i9 R- J3 n! L; z( m
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& S# t' e$ {2 [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 X8 p& Y7 A! V/ }6 e
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 O, z# I4 b7 r( D% nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& i) X! k% O* z& o+ \
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; j0 r m3 n d. [
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ O( b% O$ S& m& S5 ^5 A2 r& ~
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 C' Q- u# ^ |% j$ l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 \4 u+ s; n% v
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ [0 ~8 G( f2 N6 q" p
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* o. H8 h1 l; k' x; g5 ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 [; U2 G Q. Q _6 p: F
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 T* d' z. U; s+ AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 s/ }) C1 z* P, y9 f- Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! ^+ V0 [) [' {" M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: E& _: M& ?: Q9 S
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even" ~/ K+ P& ^) q$ M" Z0 O0 t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 O; }0 j* w$ I L& Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. l7 K! H' k1 B% t- X/ I" _
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
R; h: [) b9 F- @3 p! M0 R6 Xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. W! {( y: G4 U1 w. v+ [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 m0 H) s/ _2 J2 \" ]( c, f$ Ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 X$ l+ ^2 h; Q9 y. mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. q0 p4 |; V; U+ B3 D; A) }2 e( G4 SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 P! N/ z- i3 w( r+ T4 w1 k$ V: kleg down over 2009.
9 V: G0 C) M9 W, `* ` J
. Q0 ~: |% x0 R0 |, }2 [4 ~6 q5 ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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