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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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7 R4 ]5 W- K$ b2 U9 a% u+ `0 H8 \/ u6 lTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 8 V$ Y6 ~; X# S. L9 Y' S" \

9 \* i7 l3 @) a% AThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 F; c# q& L# t5 l- K) S# N; F( e: _$ B

' J2 h+ {  h9 g9 ~"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 5 z& v! C: S2 ]2 p6 M- s$ [" E7 P

- |/ O7 c5 W! z* \  yNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) S. t) k' ^. F5 p; J" T% e* a
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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% L" ?; d5 [% u5 p3 mMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - Z  r9 A4 O8 h# Y  U$ j- x; k

# M3 A" }$ O- c$ w6 T7 ehttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。. t7 c1 A  V$ h
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 5 ]& T8 Z! n& }# T4 {" }( a* c: ]
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

  d) Y0 n0 O7 y" U; B) ~+ j很多人都回学校深造去了
6 g) _+ y; K7 q$ [, |嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta) l2 o0 H9 C8 S) g
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( Q; y& j) t" y  \" ?9 A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 `+ q. g) c. g  H" \! }
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 p) Z) f3 R7 V5 E: b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% k( [# T# {* Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 l0 X9 k8 L; }; \. o+ ~9 W; A% `0 W$ N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& X5 |) S  u) `0 Mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% E$ g) o- X% \8 \; Q  S7 h. w/ A( {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous: G0 P2 \' w3 a3 h$ S, z5 o& s- n2 l
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, S* O  u- G" p
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% X3 Z( a& h5 F5 i" \to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# X7 t, G$ |2 i, a0 x/ z+ h+ z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' v# G# i  g, f$ m  W( p+ w% _- P9 Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 o$ P+ B% `4 n7 b( a6 t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ T) e3 M& ~$ z# t4 u) w! n30,000 new households will form in the province during# H) d" A1 X% q1 @: X% Q* g1 {; V
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( `4 O  M7 @5 H+ i1 [$ M) A9 Q) wEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 M: C' C' N. }1 d$ Z7 y  D. Z2 q6 k9 k
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# O# {( o8 e% B2 W
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 J( @2 `# d1 n& t) m5 Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" @7 r0 {1 V' L, M) |% H6 _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. M" N; ]4 n1 P: y, Y  g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ q. H) S. S3 j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 ?% b9 T% V% `  v( I; W
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- D- g- g9 F0 a: _$ c$ a' d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 K# O+ o) A% W- u- {+ I$ c2 [1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' i& h5 u- O. K: L) D% K* r$ @+ Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 }* P& v8 f# W9 C" [* w0 t
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 Y' r! c0 h5 Htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, N0 G/ p. L/ ^1 Q+ z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
! p4 F# O/ G6 ?/ c& Q8 vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 H/ Z. `" `$ v! A1 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* x. `& x# r- ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 F. u* M4 ^" l3 G: r- ]/ Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ G# P* M4 r5 O" X8 v" O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! e2 w/ x9 Z4 p: M) ?rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 D% @* ?; O) {" u2 _# Z" {: GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 [" `1 I) @" ?, o8 j5 l  J' j: r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 ^$ a: e2 V- e1 o! G
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 c# Y6 H4 C( b) p0 thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* u/ q" M( X4 w' S) O- a
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( H  j+ m& B' T+ t% q- ]9 n& v7 p2 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# H  G1 s% k! [  x, e6 Athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 n$ |9 ?! Z. F& R! A! {% Z: \8 J, }  e
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 |% @, F' W( |& Z( g4 C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 S; `) k1 A0 D) z) d. M3 ~& Wresale price in February is evidence that past prices8 Q9 G7 `5 z6 x
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: Z, V0 C6 i3 g- c% Z% s: Q! V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ H! L0 c& e% n1 m3 `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* f# {4 k* F0 r9 sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 d  C- I# `& t! N  n8 z' Yleg down over 2009.) i5 Q+ t( k8 C1 }! f

- H) Z6 M) f) C# F3 v3 w9 m" f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# }. h2 u, e3 _% A  F0 M! f- L0 w" z" M
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. F+ L& O$ w5 U& m' a& @翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- }# L9 s9 e& Q9 x8 G# o
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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