埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2576|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.9 b9 g  ^/ ~% Q/ ?2 J+ Y& H; {

3 H: r- P% L$ zTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 t3 h/ u# r/ M" k4 _% p  s( S

  O' ?- C/ @: {7 n# _7 Q2 ]The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . r1 u7 r, A% M7 m* m

3 [% ]1 \6 _( G: n! t; G"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
; V0 ~) E; P3 L# z, S5 Z( N6 l( C2 J- r4 S& d( T
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
' u) ~9 X4 K$ J) F/ T. N# C" t  ^" D( H
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ q: f* E) {3 r3 t' m/ R

# I% \: m# y2 I"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
& k! c/ B: G  D# o) v! w" F  ~# C; c; H- q" j
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 _; M1 M* U( |, _% V( |, J

* B; G5 w% h0 R# L+ ^) @Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. + p% {3 Y4 Z8 R

2 R4 C7 p2 L1 R0 r: j5 lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

/ r5 M4 l# V3 W# e0 O3 ]
) ^1 j5 D6 k& |& CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
, O, z+ M/ E2 L4 d; p( o# z* ^+ {7 J  X) k6 R
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。- n9 z7 h3 b1 y/ V6 d; T6 u0 S( F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 T7 ?6 c; r! L3 c

- k( q8 F, C  }( D# U[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 x/ W7 e2 S" M1 J+ J3 w
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 p/ w3 ?: c. p" s5 c/ H很多人都回学校深造去了* M+ n# V  d, {
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
0 b! c5 f' U* u; U4 X. gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' _6 f& b( p2 `, w. U& h- qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! w' e4 [, a! Q0 vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. H0 |5 d, ^/ C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ K7 q; u5 S8 I0 ?1 l6 Q! ]9 L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. t7 V; p2 u3 u$ N7 Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  l! B" |) B( E& k, qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 z1 ?) j) H/ [0 ^& B! Gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: }/ ]! s% ]' _1 q; T
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- W/ q4 U; v0 Hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 H0 c& s4 Z$ ]- V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! g/ t3 `9 V6 t. R$ n5 bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" |0 ]' H( m$ `* ]  A- A* ]: vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- W* f$ @& B& n7 }; @& Ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 k, w# s$ k0 y+ ~: s5 f30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 p# \3 |' W6 O6 R$ E5 L: W4 I2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- |9 e0 m1 k' ?' N! M* @9 a* `. OEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 i! t4 a5 |) L' t/ G3 ?( l) Lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 c/ w1 k" u4 y+ m0 q, {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; U7 ]4 A$ T; C- s* N4 `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) J& [6 K. o! ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. `. ^9 g7 R: w  [) F2 n" {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 f. ?3 G8 {2 J- j" ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ [& u2 Z( Z: `8 s
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* b: A# R' l: e+ R/ k* o7 U
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 J  }" I% Q" z: d" K& I2 s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% [3 w( Y5 T9 I6 v1 v
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, C  l7 A5 Q, f& n+ R& J6 N* E" cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  `, W. s7 U" O' }two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( K- R- \5 j4 _1 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 m1 t) f+ k5 x6 N( o7 b7 B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' Q7 j0 I8 W5 @+ yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 _) I- ]/ G; p, _; p' R) m9 i) wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
  ?/ e( @9 h( qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% D1 ^# L0 p' L! ?9 h( Rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 _) [+ `5 N2 L* k, E
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 U! s7 d5 `" v" R7 e, n% z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) c: I" L; Z9 x$ b5 X4 o  pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 A1 s# U" \# H) U+ }- W0 ]
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan7 U2 F0 N: F; `& P. [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ C% S( B9 |6 [, [9 ^4 z. }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 v" b' K1 {8 g% Fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 a5 c. p$ S: K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 C1 `# N; ^+ Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 w9 C9 n# d8 t8 N3 }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. a% K3 d' k4 Y8 Q' W5 Uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 d, i7 C5 n' I; sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 r( _* n2 |2 B4 p! \/ }& Z$ S
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" Y  C' S7 f- M; `, K1 {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ v" ]) O7 L: I) HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ x' h+ ]+ ?* ~0 rleg down over 2009.
# p9 U) |2 C, v" [/ Z
5 B) U( J) j( V3 A" P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 `1 z" W& ]! H. B; ^# {9 {+ ?' kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

' |) s8 n5 i& b+ Z% F9 M: S. g! _6 m, l4 f7 {) `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 3 I  @8 f' s7 K, k  g
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- N6 V, P) H9 z& O6 R7 \. V+ u
6 k4 K7 ]: E$ p# o& i( B
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
/ A) `) r% Z0 i. Y/ |. r: D+ t; n8 ^, y/ X; W. h
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-7-27 16:52 , Processed in 0.144978 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表