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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.- Q3 q! V2 }0 E- c& u

) P1 U$ ?4 d% B. J( O9 YTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 M1 ?+ X3 x* p1 l) q
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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+ W9 e- }; B; f- s  L/ t/ iTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) \" J3 V9 x: a, E
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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  e9 J9 C$ D( {, J: Y$ O' ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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; j$ {' U& ~3 Q( I/ ]. q, tTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,8 H3 ~/ E% L! ^$ {
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。" ^0 O5 d0 |9 C9 f6 w1 R
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
4 _0 F3 B; R0 a跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

- t4 o2 y1 s9 _9 J2 N" U很多人都回学校深造去了5 |% p# g" n; L% K$ S  z, e+ n
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
$ @+ b; `4 X. K) JWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" {, s% }  c( P# G6 R) {boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 s# `8 j0 |2 U9 ]3 r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 E; Z2 G$ X) R# c. `2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 V, c- q8 O. ~3 pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided% k% g4 ?2 I1 g* d/ ]3 y( q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 ?" Q) ?, S4 q  I! K5 f1 u  H* i- n0 W
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 y9 L9 L& u8 V; f7 m! g) ?" s
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% D* p4 z3 x1 l1 `, D" dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed& B5 i5 j/ n! V
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% X3 Q- t. d% E) w" Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- U# R, w- |( w% d  h
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 O! r3 x* z# f- n. t* ~0 _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' J+ y* A: b; z4 xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ t" \6 g& t$ y; r6 h30,000 new households will form in the province during3 T/ ~4 `% a. ~$ v) ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& I/ U8 a( J. D/ ]
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' l: r1 f# C8 Q) C
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
  M8 F6 M0 E# R. s' e- \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% E2 F2 _% j$ W% `. Yhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ c/ {* d0 L" U& g7 L: xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: Q- x2 i) x" ]/ h8 [+ _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ p! `) F6 V) k: w4 c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, X- @4 B! Z3 l9 |% l1 z3 c. d& x2 ?
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 k: n# e3 {& nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( @1 `4 k! W7 {9 d6 `1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# t4 I/ z3 v' I# u: N+ Q/ P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 j7 K& Z3 ^' d" pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) P3 g$ G, W. _" K4 W& K. ?. y- v# itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, R7 I  l; r7 v1 l6 z& t0 l- Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# V: k2 r: b8 l, M" T! U$ vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 |+ l8 @4 M* L4 R; C" v# [
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; s' o& k2 o/ X) F  L/ t
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 S, o( T& \; q& u: T/ z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& ^; e* W3 L0 Y) p) V( K
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 g5 ~0 Y2 ~( r: orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: \, _' l' ^1 R6 X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 S( B2 y0 }" Y  t+ c  R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; I) ~5 E$ N* `9 _1 t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
  f2 ?2 O  C  qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' ~2 K; P$ b4 Wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( S' }$ P; v' T4 o6 ]+ y0 `( \5 A+ X. _% hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ ^% B( d1 J5 F+ ?; |5 I5 othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 h' i& Y6 |5 ~5 o+ V
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 r% [1 c$ d2 ^" i5 T: h1 m
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 D8 u& _$ ?0 U2 F' L( Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 V- g" Z# g. J* _2 }8 ]exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* J  [. a# A% @$ Uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. Q) e% c% l, J. d! Y0 w; rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. R+ a# f8 w# i( w; UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  |: ~8 i" n2 v+ A8 }: E( Hleg down over 2009." _( {  A' a9 `8 C+ q$ K

/ G, X; v- D% G5 j5 B. u$ ?$ }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! E  B. h+ r( C  F& d) g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 }( M  L; \8 @# e2 |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 D4 K! O% {) l& j+ A% O

5 t9 }: |6 k; h5 n$ {http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: r9 n' Q; H) R3 w. \2 [6 ?

8 F/ o' V: G" {3 o7 ]( _. r; L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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