埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2592|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
& k$ g7 K0 A3 N9 W. {& b! P; ]5 x' A, y  t* r! S
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
8 F$ X; }) N0 F( w( M8 }4 Z
+ k& B" u3 h3 q/ H" _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. & R: A  x$ s. H0 @# w- l$ D

+ B" u! x9 t. D. {; I"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * r) A; i3 E# G& [/ A) U5 J

; l0 _0 d* |! DNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- N' ?% e6 l0 C+ X
9 \: O* ]- A2 Z4 d8 s5 l2 U* t9 ]
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
. @6 Q* O( g2 n# I
5 d( U, F  W$ k( q. R0 E1 T& g& y"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
9 p+ ^; T/ e6 e# F$ p  x* r+ ?9 J, \" F$ |4 \) N9 g
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
! m  T% t8 Z5 x5 }' A% `2 k% d) [% }+ U* u- O' d
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 U! ?: c, X* S* f) f. E  z6 U) W

& u+ v6 P) D; j8 i0 whttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

* N$ Q; Y+ |$ `/ s8 o' ~4 t2 `0 d$ E1 F, R* t! R& @" e  L' B; H7 _
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,3 t$ w5 _4 h+ P; y( b9 A; P2 K/ H

: T2 x3 f8 u; q4 S. @  N8 a[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( l  z' ~5 B- F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
  ]( \% W8 ?4 o; [9 o( s3 L. m) s9 ^- p: W( X* M; W4 u
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 - E- |$ C  C' n4 w- ~
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( W9 l+ ?% ~. Y9 K& U+ `+ _很多人都回学校深造去了
) ]0 C" O* y% \8 \嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) I" R9 j* u, Y/ w( @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 @  {  m  C* a: Y* }3 wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
: X& n0 Y* g  Nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. k  x% P7 g" F4 j* C
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" u% F$ ~7 M6 M! _4 z8 d3 g' V3 ^
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 \0 u& y" G) |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 z- ~' J" [  r* u4 E; h7 \3 N
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 n8 Q% y& R8 e. H4 X& ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
4 e) }$ X$ c$ z5 |- h$ E7 b0 a! Ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 Z8 i% o# d( I! Z9 Z8 O
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. Y8 |, R' S9 R5 X2 q9 w8 j: \to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( m5 m, B+ a7 j% y6 Wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( O% y- G8 X& @- X8 e. m/ \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. G! q* {& [! i* {/ F2 E/ Q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
: |: g* S+ q( O6 y30,000 new households will form in the province during
! K3 j" Z/ a9 f* `2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; n( o- n) h; }; j3 Z0 MEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ u% g# v9 q0 Z$ Z/ X4 |. ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, m. }) k: R* h# n  M, c) P# \+ V
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
" p# u- x' M8 i& ?' e3 f' Hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 k# E2 a7 N9 C0 R$ r  F4 Shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 ?  l! U- o4 I* o- }) T+ vduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' ~$ ?7 K7 M- A2 T  x# Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! R1 q% C& R1 d! P9 s
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ R0 I5 ?2 p- {$ z9 a' Y% @0 D
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 ~: N8 Y" c7 O/ a/ _
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& A. V3 D+ B; b8 u8 f7 B/ k& h9 ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, J" o2 {9 g" B6 Nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: o. n/ P" E7 y% K) Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 Z+ O- Y7 K/ y. g5 n# X& Q* j5 Wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- q: w7 z- v' x5 Z( _% v4 X# d. nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- W! b/ Z, h1 w# X! G0 Irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# v' L: r4 x6 J  t8 [5 x9 @5 V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: E8 E1 x* W8 j" O6 v
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 _1 e, ~$ d& p  S  U0 cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- {/ C6 q& m# \) brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 g, c4 B. t# ^$ N# u( g. c, fThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 |0 U- \/ m  D& g7 R. A4 kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
  {* ?* h; R7 I# y" N8 |3 bAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan4 K( e( o+ f* `& U2 r+ R  ^( b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 J7 S; O6 [1 J! |7 `. O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ S! v( K& d) g' b
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even& H- E# ?4 g0 C* F( z& Y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! T5 {0 p1 B( x0 E, V) _$ c/ g8 A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" Q. @1 T; ^2 j) r8 @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( c, M( ]3 f) J) ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  h6 q- E9 h0 u  @) @. fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 Q- R7 A" g8 I5 X! V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 c) p4 {& Q$ W/ l0 C9 i
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 o0 f. i$ n; E$ ~. w% \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ V4 ?  \, R! F% [leg down over 2009.
! r. _3 N9 S/ p$ g2 x$ ^! F2 K' J6 y0 q2 ^2 o% N% ^
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 l0 g% t8 h& @" N0 b" E( DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

* l' R" Y5 _$ l# U4 g6 X0 b: e5 p
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ O& A! Q7 r! h2 f
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 L# O2 C! M3 }8 l
, B0 b; Q/ F$ x: h+ K
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments; x7 O# t" }; O0 ^9 t6 _8 {. ^( y5 l

" ?. W' ]) ^2 Y$ V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-8-2 10:58 , Processed in 0.208048 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表