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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.- S% }' P; F( j, n' J

6 l+ f! ?' z$ C8 u8 W; zTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 8 C; D% o# k7 T$ Z# t" j
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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1 z; z4 N' |1 {9 @, m) mNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- e2 r( s2 X! p. g

0 @' L/ @( Z6 a+ N- aTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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  A& E  B  V3 X! m- @& j"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # h  J- u% o0 Z/ t
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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6 p  S" ^) j2 w, o/ }Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ! w! j& N2 [/ Z. P

, }: \( Y! w8 O( u! \! ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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' _% M. a3 J8 a/ o0 n: N0 t2 NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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6 A% G" P( i0 t+ [2 G( h: O. s[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 g: p5 M5 x9 s3 I* ^8 J 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。% _( {2 v) d# d! l" M7 o( Y
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ; b! Z# S8 {7 w9 K- b1 R! j4 k
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了* k/ {1 m( i% z
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# C/ \! M" ?" C) CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# b9 U' s; t. |9 s% C, r2 q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ J2 I8 A- d* G2 ^* ^& u- T3 `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; z) o1 a9 j3 o; q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 S1 ~, p, T# h( b4 vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- [, n# O3 s' v( T+ K6 Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 ~+ B- z4 Y+ C" N9 O
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 M9 y  r' [3 V5 n* imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' a& Z" p( o3 a) a- Apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( L/ {" i/ U' z) Yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 `* q+ N+ u2 K7 C  c7 lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- R- l" m' s. Aprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( F. h3 W+ K1 gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) t2 F  l: {& s' Q- p' ~6 T" f
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& Q2 v* W! U3 R, I30,000 new households will form in the province during, F7 T+ [1 Q9 C8 D* ?' p! w
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" v# e/ Z! D9 A: _8 ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 ^) J8 Z; d1 \' z. Bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 `, Q7 v# g5 F. v" b4 Z6 ~0 [) ~8 {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ I  O7 i' Y6 x+ mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new  `7 a$ j, j  d2 k, i* R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 X$ u2 X' `( [% Sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 e6 O: b: E3 o% ?8 lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 v: }) M+ C3 ~- x: K2 L( u! u
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 b- T( C: Y! f( \( x+ zexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) M( I7 i8 t- e9 C1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 n( r( r& X7 B; S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. V: x3 Y" U4 c# Zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 u. }3 R( F: l  p4 d/ A! a0 q% _- Z! etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 K7 g" z/ j) Lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% f# H5 e& C8 d5 R0 Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ P7 T# \+ Q8 q- A' Grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; }5 v$ [+ ~- r6 ]- D9 aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; g' \4 T: E( X* u9 _7 dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& x5 I; n6 D" l: V. u- n) `% @7 P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. P% h3 E7 i* r. h6 I( x0 F+ h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 X, J6 d+ t* U1 j/ T1 ^0 R( R+ ^9 R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ i8 N5 k+ S* E0 C1 x% z7 J- Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." B. u: n1 d4 a7 e
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
* n& ^% J! p* P$ U; H( ~housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ ^' R6 Y. \, _' _2 Frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 g8 N* `' ]. k- Z$ R0 @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even- a3 X5 B0 l$ V  C* {2 G- B: E& ?
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: @  I& a. V4 J1 Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% y2 w, W" ?. d. m8 m7 R+ AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; Z5 I' @: v1 A$ b4 W) c8 n1 o
resale price in February is evidence that past prices- g' P. `2 k4 O9 J3 D  O0 i
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 l/ U+ T/ D2 w1 j& w; t8 O  {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 Z1 S5 E" k7 T5 e6 N' b
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 r% Z& i( }* S% A$ |, |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# i! c8 o" ]& `# nleg down over 2009.
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( i9 s' C) T2 L" R& q; s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; ^- X2 d1 J. R/ n" Y' J/ l" Z/ N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. % @) I, R! Y* }4 d
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* R( w8 A8 u" [8 d! \# @( u  A# Q

* T- w* j7 n$ O* }# nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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9 @* k0 n* l6 ]5 k& p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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