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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
5 Y1 _* o% P2 @5 j1 b( o7 z4 F& ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) A- G: M" }# R1 \' xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
# j7 N8 k% Q1 D. X% ]( lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ {& U6 V% K8 f* p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 @0 S( Q! L# T9 p, iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 Y; n* Y! P& @: K, H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 ^. Y8 `8 f/ l4 z% e: o& O. `4 E; _
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; g# q+ Z6 v5 U
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 [- K2 g6 ^6 ?/ l# p2 n# Kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 V4 x' c" w/ n: H' \0 h# m) ?
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 i5 {7 G5 h: F; W0 a3 o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 c' F b. ]6 C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 c# @ b; a+ p/ W: e" b2 a3 h3 Ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- t" J8 x5 Y( [5 [- b6 t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* x9 { `" k- }4 M# G. v
30,000 new households will form in the province during
- e: a* j/ g) ~3 l; n z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. C7 `6 g. I A4 L7 {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- [' m" n+ u5 i3 v
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& t; u8 O) C" U+ n
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 z& {( t6 Y- G, i( u; S1 Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! L' E2 V& F( ~* x, rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 i# }% g8 J! J5 q/ Hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( v$ t* E ^/ K) V) m# msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: _" |# W6 i) Q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 W9 b5 G C/ G4 G. F
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 [. D' ^" I" ~
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 m. v0 O" N) Z& G$ k# b4 Lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 y, o( f8 u$ l+ n7 d
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# s# Q# K- Q4 [, |! F9 g Vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in/ Y9 z6 v h0 i4 L1 c
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ w T4 m2 {% p3 z/ }: @4 A
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- U0 I3 k6 h, s/ N! t( H5 z6 g2 F
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: S/ X# B6 U& `& B$ |# w& kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 s! K. r( H% c! `
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- N0 I; M3 H0 ]' z2 Y- |
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% v4 p2 X& b1 l, grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 M+ {7 c* G' I. Y h, e& q4 SThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) p# m9 R& Q6 x6 T7 s. j- k, P( {
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
f1 {1 R9 L4 EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. K0 D1 M. t# o" x v9 {
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 y$ r$ ?3 w0 r# x& D2 C
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale v7 ?( F+ |9 ?$ z n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ Y* G* S/ t0 v e* c0 w( f9 |( \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 l- Y# E4 a6 {! ~2 x# gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ R q8 M/ l* @/ s( H
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( R3 H( c$ h- T: _; y; n
resale price in February is evidence that past prices. m o5 s. Z' w( }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ {4 F6 L& j- h+ A0 Y5 X" v, U( rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! J. B2 ^4 ]6 L2 a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, f, s1 U% b" i0 d% V
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; Y; ^4 C- r9 i d
leg down over 2009.8 n" B9 c9 t0 D' D' d. M
, j. W; z8 j! L$ o7 C, K7 l7 x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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