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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* A9 m4 ^7 ~5 o# Z) c& d5 s$ H: Q

. r7 M8 U4 H. X5 p1 q1 B4 kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % W' I4 e' p7 Q1 u) s: T
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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- {9 L2 `" g8 S0 i; sTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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0 R. F# v4 f  B% }Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% G" V  A4 Z( B' u; {
1 C% `! F5 {+ q: N8 Z
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
; r- ^4 s5 q/ {+ l* n; { 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( l3 K* z0 L4 s: f1 \6 L' C
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . \8 ^- A3 p. l( L
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: Q# K0 c: ]* u  }很多人都回学校深造去了" x' l& M' @1 f& U
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta: w7 o3 N) T: Q( z# e: u. b
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* H* l! \. K. e) E
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. A0 }) [% `  k6 Q! \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& a- m3 K8 g4 I; o* ^+ j# N* ]
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ D, M, T8 u) h* s" w. j
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 `$ U+ ^/ B; c
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," F3 J/ n' H3 S7 u  [
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 U* |' u  N. Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 j, j$ |' f. M( Zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& b, v0 `* H! Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 }, [3 S! E) }5 U, s/ [$ tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) [0 B3 ^3 \8 F+ o
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& U8 n' r% ]2 l& Z4 H
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) O& J8 X  @* }! `# K2 B; o# O
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 b! q: Q% p$ R$ h3 C" e30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 z* Q4 x% Z) j8 R7 o/ ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. U. g; `+ S# S% W1 Z, M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 T! r! U- ]5 K9 [: A8 t2 H. J5 [homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 p2 P. Y" v0 V: u4 _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 N6 f  P9 k- D2 m
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 o1 l$ Z- Y0 c& N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ J8 w; q' A% E$ aduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 @  k! T# K7 Y" X5 f) j5 z& w$ _7 G
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 ~" c' U$ l2 i" Z; d. B, ?7 }. P
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% ]$ x" i! ]+ {4 [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" u9 {% [& J, t4 D2 a( J$ \& \4 M' v
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
  T5 z  j+ T' z$ i0 Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* i, A) z" w  c% K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& l9 d  Q- X) t, j2 `& N" i
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; G, I, G4 q# o# Y  l$ A. xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  p7 ~) Z& W1 v! |+ y0 }1 V' w0 Z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ h, X; u0 J/ F- K: Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ V0 L2 D$ X, u3 k6 ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 q9 n* Q' Q5 E! i$ [$ O
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
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rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! p* F, }  S* _$ N8 K- k- t
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. h6 S9 |1 I3 X7 @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
" p/ F) J+ |( e/ k8 MAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan: H% w( C4 F- K! f, \# [. M, D; o5 Y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 L# z) m/ {8 S& W0 H
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 D/ d/ b, u; i9 v0 Y8 ]( d8 u
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  q* f$ e# u5 @( R" Ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& _8 M. H6 I% y0 ~- a
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 G6 v" E$ j6 L8 P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: [' V1 v7 O3 D/ L  w, s: L" mresale price in February is evidence that past prices- m5 ~4 w) {. O8 z9 ^& b+ r
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" N$ Q5 _0 h+ l: n' F
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 M- j. \4 k* R% g+ Fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) ]" h& ^( d/ T8 {2 y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ L8 f) {7 a' B9 l8 Y2 t% h
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ L' b; g& H6 V3 g1 g! k/ U2 VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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4 i+ A! E* g8 |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 Z, W; @4 i4 b* q
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments, x1 }; v" ]8 A* W8 I: o

1 s( l% V  [3 Y  ~9 t) o; y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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