ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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# }/ v6 [. C8 ]! V$ ^6 F: yThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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7 H1 p) q% i+ @& _" R) T: }& tNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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) n: a2 a9 \4 Z& Z8 qTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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# v9 ~% z1 ^" F- n3 [! b"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.

2 U, F4 K8 G! r/ d# n. p& nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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9 ~6 V1 q* _" a' g. BMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.

' w4 f$ J$ H! N( ihttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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  b, I& F2 t3 N, w/ j5 LTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

) c+ D8 |+ A1 ~2 @6 Q; \( ~7 Q[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

5 P/ |9 f' Y, L/ C[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; x0 n1 M* x: \, p5 a0 d$ o很多人都回学校深造去了
. Q' L+ a: k( U, X% z4 \& x嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
: z' X0 Y# V1 KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# X: p6 c$ U! kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( _; P/ ?$ @  q% ]1 |! Jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 P- |6 _+ Z# Y+ v4 {# A; J7 Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, H. r6 E- E+ `& Z  Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 Q, f9 [/ K! F0 mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 ?7 a* x5 x2 {+ g6 Z1 ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! K6 ]+ @" |2 ^, w' I( A30,000 new households will form in the province during
" l; H3 I5 _  n* U7 W3 p) Q6 Q+ g2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, @7 _5 H$ ?' j, g7 T- Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- y# ^7 B3 p7 h- d6 ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 \9 f4 k" ^: T$ R; hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, t& u* C! @2 s9 m. [5 X1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- l9 X3 V) Y+ q! ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 u* j4 M. }1 J: L4 h# X( I) U: e* aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! O+ o7 z" U4 t; {0 L+ _8 mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ s! Q4 x' |7 c4 WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" W/ y7 o! S# i9 q6 [' uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. E3 F& G, {8 r$ vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
' A+ L) M: U. r* phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ x$ ?  J3 M& |9 Trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) S% Y" S3 n7 B9 Z5 ?4 hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 Z. P/ L$ I0 }The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ Y8 x+ \. x4 p' ]/ c9 kresale price in February is evidence that past prices
' g( H1 r: }8 Z+ Q* H% [2 @exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 U& I- h2 p- n# shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ k; h! U, ?8 h# p& R. _; Z* i4 c# tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ \; y2 V( M7 ~5 @1 W* ~& u2 U* k' Rleg down over 2009.

% L3 X# M6 o2 o# L6 j4 W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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" D7 m& Z+ r: {http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing