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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.4 f2 H3 a" I0 }% ^, s
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 3 ?: j* |7 Y( r. }9 ]; |* ]$ K9 Y

" M* P3 n! _, F7 F' M# n! v/ G0 gThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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! j& k) a2 }( W"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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+ k; _) J( F( _, \5 \+ @) t& jNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  R& `3 U! l# w; `! N+ H2 N

$ M9 T, X* k' k0 P# ATD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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# U1 r6 A3 t1 _# \) L6 ^TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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" q6 c) }( z. T7 c$ r2 JTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: `2 `- I% k, ?, c' o  ~& W

4 N1 n, E' J( x& ?, u, v[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。, O. j& L8 Y6 B) J
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" [7 Q5 c- M- g9 V$ @/ O, v4 p[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
; \! h& X6 p, C. h- }跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
( w4 {" M! l, p5 N% w1 d5 Y+ x3 Y嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- x5 Z$ {& i6 J6 n% s9 gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 b. X8 @8 v  Y6 ~  Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, E$ F& K/ |& |- ]7 f6 O* fare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; W8 V: m( K( u# L# C
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. c' F6 X; B8 Z/ `formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 I2 T* [: _9 wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% }% d7 g, V; H8 B) }( g, w# \( |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( i. e. V8 P; k/ r# N8 Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' f( l7 M  p# g* J" h- c9 Kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. s, {+ Y2 S( z" v+ T6 U: Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) u* z3 n- w" i4 R5 X2 E. vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 ^1 [3 _% ^9 c. e0 h
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% H4 f9 O* [8 I0 y: X0 Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 d! S4 j& P3 ^' ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, W7 K; P! ^7 j" K1 x" z
30,000 new households will form in the province during9 C9 a: M: }! ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. T8 L! x% }! n- m; F4 g) hEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- |4 t0 h! y0 q0 O3 bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ I8 i6 c- ]: n! v' dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* U0 v) [" g4 |0 U# Ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' `" w* `5 H* A! b/ p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 r6 V7 c( l; S( k. z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 \2 Y' h8 w& r1 u! zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; U% b: r# m8 {, s0 kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ l( p* c8 ~! |: F3 T) Iexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* |5 [( X( S2 t" Z) w, g  ~+ d
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 T7 b4 _3 e$ ~. o+ A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 W9 z: D. j" ~1 X9 M, K7 _
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ s2 T5 o( a# L( I; i& ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 q2 p" {* Y- J0 i) ~+ Lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 v: f3 n! Y2 Z6 C6 ?$ p- e* Bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" d4 F% r) ~" ]. A$ o' M/ |: }0 Zrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ H9 n- c8 d0 @; n! D* v4 Z( U" hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: R+ ]( e. {- Q& j- d9 ]
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ D; n# y5 z  @6 X& {# [
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 m# W+ }6 W+ w* M' }" f5 M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ ]/ Q4 H$ P0 v/ C2 W7 z: r% C3 P
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: c5 i4 M, U# q' n  \- w* k
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 w! n( ~" N9 l5 g; jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 z* [" l( J/ {* n9 p- B" @  @8 a
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) w/ |+ k2 D6 x! r' K! C- ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 ?3 x/ V1 x- J& w  v* [9 [% ]+ ?- Kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even' m. y, Y* P1 v' N; e
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 l4 I& t# X& |' s- |on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.  U  I0 ?) M. c9 O2 x
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 y; q) M& [$ Zresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 j( ?* C: a3 @! R- ~exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 K$ d/ u. B: Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 D+ k  N' V& q* y% z, C* Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( z7 X0 ^7 C! ]. C1 A4 y, J) H- gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 o8 r$ s5 M2 oleg down over 2009.: v5 R  L) Z. Z. r" t  A* U$ r3 I2 s

4 p& t8 s! y! j2 Q" g1 I, f6 o, R0 `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 N& J- J! a. E" B4 gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 l0 Q# m- t4 g) Q. t$ ^7 G
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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$ P: w$ h" I' o: a! T: h9 c# u4 y4 N$ Yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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