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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 f$ s. o2 U! w4 L6 H% v

! ^" M' s9 N2 i' O. r& ITD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. " m; m/ ^0 k+ w9 B  a2 w

, V4 T, Y7 n+ `; e3 B' y4 RThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ' B' {0 n; Y, w# L5 l

3 h3 |. N1 E$ K* U0 l4 D4 }/ D8 M"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # E# h! v$ Q0 b) e; {

  @7 u8 i- F2 q) \Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% R3 C7 \6 W; G: {& N( u/ H
+ T& d( D- l" N6 [: i1 U3 w1 ]3 [
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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9 o; J2 R+ q; f"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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. _7 D, i* U# {3 A: HMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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* u9 \; K9 b; _2 f' d& g/ y! Ihttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 O$ O' h. \4 F' S* I* p# Y

" V& x. Y! E/ a* {1 ~) G& {[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 `$ E, v/ `+ i+ h; T0 M  g8 z9 }6 P 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % x1 P! o! F/ E! K  q$ @
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

% a% n. b6 V5 v: [$ ?' ]- p很多人都回学校深造去了8 V3 F  z1 a$ a; m( V+ S* |% Q
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 [5 T8 s4 q  J( y9 L
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: j& ?5 L: I6 n  E4 {& U
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 N/ J( u7 w, f. O  [1 M7 ~& Xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( e  w, w# w% ]2 b
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 b* ~7 D3 |$ [. r) v; \  H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" W3 H& O" R# G  O8 R
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ e8 |8 B. n6 p$ s5 j; A- rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; p! Q! t% s$ l. j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- C, e4 o' K% v5 A+ {" G0 Q8 zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# g2 b" x$ M1 ~7 q9 j, K. Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# p4 E9 A0 B) O4 C/ ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 E* Y* |) X/ O! f9 p) Vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# G' x* R  D! K. @6 Y! U, I2 Qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& p7 v/ [- ]7 f/ N" T7 G" L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* C+ _  G7 Y) C
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 b7 q$ p! S3 l0 E, x
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- _) D; Q. p. {# h* J( t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' g) G( E* }4 i; W0 b- a2 D0 h
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 x8 `9 e! v* R! v' D. G# C& |; ~during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% Q( ~! _! t( M8 p+ f. l5 Y0 C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new6 E' |) B3 c8 H9 z  f9 w% k
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals; Z8 \8 [; M0 J7 B8 e+ n1 k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ E9 |) i' @& Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# K) d; j+ j7 V1 Y4 jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 V6 `) l: p( ^) L( D" F
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 U  N% Y9 \+ Y$ T' }; w& |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ P# B, ^) f- z2 Z5 [, ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. d) R2 e! m. O5 b# S* d% `% k
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, H1 `$ o. S0 I  T$ z* g/ u, s
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# G  u2 s  q# `* k/ U6 Cunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! t5 ~- z3 k  Z2 l7 J" e8 Y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) @, I& n6 ^$ {2 N8 Orecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) u2 ?3 F7 t0 H' ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  s0 }; [/ H" O# }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 R( o+ r) J4 }0 @# J! x0 x
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' I8 T) y& o2 H$ @. U
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 `& ~: G9 h5 X! U/ E
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; w" l6 M: S6 h' B
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 @6 q3 b- T$ `  H9 A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" ^0 \& o, u' M0 ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 a/ q+ l. T7 g3 `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( A2 b- U2 ^6 s, Gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# s# P& q) X, f, C3 j( {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# y. H, }) x) a$ x5 B
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ G" p; R+ W/ X' P' r
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) M6 [5 T" O  G7 d3 I+ _$ R+ wresale price in February is evidence that past prices' m/ N% [7 [4 S5 A! _; V
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& u9 \1 \8 a# i! U
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' W7 N& j; `% H* T
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 Q; m5 d1 N* W3 `, Z: Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ `) ~5 s- `" z/ B
leg down over 2009.
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3 Y  p  Y8 r6 }, S7 z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 ?% S3 t+ u, N# a  R9 b* d' l- {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' Q. ?. M8 H" [/ e/ Y, G' f; W翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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3 ~8 Y! }) {" q/ S8 dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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6 U6 }4 ]. `* X* [% E5 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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