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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 ]# v: E! c) }  c" d6 O. ]8 W

% K8 V$ D- [% ]; @! rTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. & p! Z" A; x& @5 K; c

+ o4 P# `5 }1 F$ k3 a: X/ w$ \"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * s  k7 z% O" H" j$ P. p) c. A! b. u
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% v( ^/ T6 ~$ y* I% e  f
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.! a' p5 v7 I( g6 {6 m3 y

: M! e: \6 }7 s( J"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 F; p1 T' Q! Q! p" t% ^

% s! [3 ~0 s. h) P( f4 jTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.3 U; G/ g0 X% l" X$ d
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , u0 k! n1 Y7 k$ _
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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5 K# F) x$ o6 uTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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9 V5 ]- }! \! z7 Q5 N[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。9 s) S9 G6 v$ e) j# T
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 i6 K( U, r! r* ]5 @" _$ [跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

$ _! q7 w3 d4 \" `9 E很多人都回学校深造去了$ k& v0 P* C7 `+ W6 [' [
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta$ u. n. d6 \0 u% v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ Y. R1 C# {8 h% m0 s0 M4 D. |boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  Q0 E/ E9 d7 S
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* X/ x# V. D" S. l
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& ~0 ?7 W: b9 W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 K) `* D7 h. o, L6 K2 t) [from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 V" B) G2 l* j* Z7 L' y+ p) Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, \$ U) L/ c4 H2 i# j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
) q4 v, f1 t- n0 r9 Q( [pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' n! i, W7 N; v* K) zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% _& ]- I& \" T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, t/ J9 M: g1 X% Y$ y$ p) d: ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 s: n3 q& P# byear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ `6 r$ Z+ e+ h0 l, L3 q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ h" E7 m' v. m/ E4 Y5 s
30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 t8 F* E/ |! F" X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ `# r2 `* y! c  UEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 k4 O* H/ S/ P: F
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, T# K& ]) U9 C  B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- C0 G7 G/ T$ H7 _. i" o0 o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: S2 V; ]* a0 |7 Ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% }4 \+ i* A' v, uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 @! [# o8 G$ z  e7 O
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ z% }7 T; Y) x$ ~" @
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 G, U% P9 E: f4 S7 S% g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( c7 G4 B5 h$ i4 C* [4 |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, U, F  `7 e4 l1 c7 l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 ]" Z$ {+ g& ~9 e6 T3 o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& |$ U! w6 k: j( d2 |
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) |) X% z- g. Y3 ^" ?9 c" T9 z: Yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. ^; v' _. i8 d/ H& |
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) z2 H; p- Q( T4 K9 t1 y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( s+ N/ ^$ ]* q& gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" B% e) Q" m" ]) y! Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 c9 K: O- Q* M# Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! @3 g" _. P& krapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 c2 \( d# C8 B! j. U- h3 f5 Z. @The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. B$ C  C& ~7 Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
  E7 h: l9 L8 u2 j3 k  U. `Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 z0 D' ~' K0 J) `& ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# }" v+ V1 v2 q. E) Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 x% Z* j) r" U6 \0 B9 S( ~/ xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even' N+ n  Z2 D, }5 D; m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 B8 B8 c; q) P+ t6 S! p0 yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( V' i1 J( J) g& M3 i% b8 P, Z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 B8 X6 A: I, h9 i$ Z  H( gresale price in February is evidence that past prices: B1 k  O+ m2 c0 ]: P4 x
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! p3 i3 q: Z% @+ i' _8 Y. n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 r5 R. B/ F( D, hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; w9 n8 D  Y$ ~# \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* ]1 }8 p: M! g8 b5 O1 C
leg down over 2009.% A: {. q+ ]+ L# N0 ~, p% Q
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 ?8 n* M- t3 w) \
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 |2 S' J) m: ]+ n- Y. n6 J1 O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. " ~# l# y% S( B7 E% {; J
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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: r& M8 }0 ^) phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments2 B! c" T* |* A- K* w1 Y
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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