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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* Y& W( {0 D$ [: ^4 H& t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 o4 G7 k% m, L3 V5 ?$ x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
* c: b6 h+ c! Y5 A5 D, Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! U% }% K3 {, f* ~$ d
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! I* R1 s, b8 h* Mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 _$ y: C k( q2 Y4 O4 k- Vfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( D& ~: T$ n" L/ Q% a4 G2 ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- t( [" w9 y# r+ Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: \, Z6 `" x" y1 u9 f
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: @5 m8 V5 `4 r0 F c- l jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 V! U$ P5 }' W" Ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
' q5 r, [3 b' L' dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( n2 D+ O! b- Z7 p, S: Hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ f+ j$ @+ C2 h* f0 [' \& Ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ B5 K/ ]4 a }' y# S+ D
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 p7 d S% |' K) E d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 r6 ~# r& ]% { ?7 p* lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 M; U/ y- j" w* b# z; z1 C* ?
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 D3 a; `1 x7 e/ F4 y0 ]0 pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. A& w& }# V: Thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- [- [; \9 Y) |6 @households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 D q4 o i0 w- X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. X; U3 @$ y4 O4 ~8 K# O! V: q/ fsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories p( X. R5 T. @, I" Z4 Y }/ K2 {
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 x1 F2 D2 i# U1 y: V5 Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: D7 U) m3 v* B6 @+ r2 z* u
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, [7 a/ ~. W- A) F) Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 S( j! [, R# X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: k: \( R3 N, z/ m% F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* z+ _0 {# V' n0 A
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; I4 _0 D& Y/ O: g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ D1 G1 y6 y# D3 {' E
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 ?( B) I2 z; A) I1 d( b
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& ~' g7 N Y5 k! T% ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 v# C, T1 m3 {of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) B% |6 o ~ r. Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! B8 D$ M5 ]. D* y1 d8 [The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) ^1 Y9 U4 [ @6 o( j6 s6 I. y1 X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) V3 |; w g6 R/ U& k$ M0 N. x
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
, P/ v2 u' @& P; Y# |housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, V. g/ x) m4 D1 ?: n5 \: b
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% H6 l5 E+ Z; J$ S; h' v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 A, Y2 W# p/ [& z5 b9 bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 g" n/ N6 r W: h/ ]7 o5 ^on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# t5 p. ]* k' w' z3 n0 H
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 w: }" r7 E, g$ Fresale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 |9 _ v: [2 [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 }+ Q6 ~4 p% M
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 }8 ]1 k0 T- G, E1 ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% Q' r+ X2 T3 {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% e8 ?: a5 v: p+ r" [$ u4 Z& Qleg down over 2009.
: a' i% _+ p0 X1 K) u. n7 g* d0 w9 f( Z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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