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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) Q. r% t( x4 D& F3 A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" g( `" S+ L5 A3 f4 Q; H) ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; j/ G/ }' Y* }8 }$ s! {
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: w5 }" v. y: b5 L& j! }7 f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% g' |( }% r/ Y+ }% o: r
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 F# J ^2 Q2 [0 C( E0 Y \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 _1 Z' M+ x( g; Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- s1 J- O$ L5 @# A. G# f0 c1 g
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous, I* ]( o+ U( ]( p
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: P* ~0 ?3 o; ]
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% O9 Y8 z! i% y) K3 k# @; X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ P8 f8 z2 I3 B6 pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 c$ ?: {% q& b0 l+ o+ t. ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% J! I ]4 d1 ?" r; s+ T8 ]% c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 f) R' J1 u" R0 U30,000 new households will form in the province during
% w$ M$ ~% n- a! l9 u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
, y' C/ T! X+ r; @4 o; x0 @Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) p" ~& ?$ ]( ^5 w0 G, dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. X7 T6 Z; I2 |" b6 O [. u( dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ B8 f: g7 J4 H7 W
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 s1 E9 \) C, R. i) O7 uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals g4 G7 L! ]8 V/ }! h z! |! c
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* k# N! x1 F- {* E
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 U, i& z4 D+ a8 P3 c2 z. d! Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% @- L7 E- Q( ~0 g5 U# R( z4 n- Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) v- T1 X, q5 S" K$ A& V7 z
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a: Z6 h3 I5 _/ i/ S$ B% n m7 N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" w" b% `7 [ }- X0 o, X' h0 tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 Z" ?3 S& p) g2 a- M" ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 W7 }7 y& q: q0 Q- v
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& a' }' o& C$ m- r3 D( O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& o% ~0 A! u: vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. Y( C7 b( k3 A; E9 g3 k% iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" f1 i; {6 s) r5 k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- D3 C. [* \# M1 ]0 @
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled! Q" F: x- B/ ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ b/ M4 v# Y2 q0 S$ n+ R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. {+ g: n' Z' ^. t3 d
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 E7 M4 k9 i, y6 U" P1 T
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; v& i; U2 N, n3 r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# S: e! P6 m6 Q* S) |, h$ A. Lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 ?7 T9 Q+ j) Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% R% Z1 `# V( b: g+ Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) _$ [! G, j. e( K* [, K/ }- Don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 W$ z% v/ z8 |5 ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: _4 G3 `( c% _: R9 p9 [resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 @" ?# ]' _& n T
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 ?5 w; z" z6 I8 ^
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" S9 I. r+ E; ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 C9 F0 j0 w1 @9 [! s2 h6 O# m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; B2 e1 ]: A" S( rleg down over 2009.
2 D" @, n# S- a# J, X: d; H/ L* n; ] E& C6 P: f0 _5 q0 z7 E# N6 N
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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