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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 7 ~0 z; o1 V, s( `' G

: k. I" E) i; o: xThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 4 c7 s: U4 ~" d

4 {# {, S' W  c8 Z/ PNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.1 |# c! \2 }0 o: q* h5 Q! V# R, l

: _5 H; q' e3 Z* h3 \: l6 e5 \# e. qTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) k3 ~& O- t& J, _2 K
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 u" G1 i6 S+ v; \2 a5 q
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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  M' E% c' N% `; C! w# ]1 {) \  lhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
( G0 Z3 r3 N2 w* x 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- e5 h# }  r- [) n9 H[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 - [& f: H% V6 |1 K( `
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
/ n& T* m8 A1 s$ m3 }: R, L5 A7 D嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
& n8 x. \5 I: aWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 T4 ?+ b1 E9 I6 Zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 c4 s" r2 K) i6 d5 `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( a" ^/ _6 ?7 J' P; d% G1 D2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, M' B" D0 `4 a; z9 Z5 j/ Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ F" c3 |3 n. M. v! y  Ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 y9 J; F5 V" z" [+ P# B0 A3 G8 Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! ?  Y9 J0 `% t  y% [' \0 [
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* f( S  u6 a4 H3 v, Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 I1 `/ e* A9 u5 H7 i/ Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ v' [7 Y, u( L& s! X0 S, Z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( v3 @2 d1 }. ]) z8 b+ R: Eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  d! P9 E6 e7 I6 ^$ r; a2 o4 Fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. E5 P2 K0 y; a/ G* j; P* d5 h
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. D- q7 A' [$ o% R/ s4 G& ?  K
30,000 new households will form in the province during" y: J0 h2 B/ r
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& `) o$ Q& {! M/ x( H; G; ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; i! m' Q" ~& J/ l/ d# @6 X; {homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" W  I' K" f* B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, X% }3 D4 U2 P2 ]0 b1 Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ u7 u0 K( i7 D) [* M0 Uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 S% B9 A, s; q9 h% ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ `5 |, c6 l4 b( g/ ~1 c0 ~* u, m
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories6 w7 S1 ]' ^# Y" A1 k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 y1 ^& p0 }1 [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 R! H0 N* v7 g- Z
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' O: H# _) Q# bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& a7 v7 }2 h7 L$ ]1 s, ]5 tbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 M9 a8 G# c6 B/ [( T$ w  a% o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% o* s+ G# \# Y3 p3 G1 t9 junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 n, t* A3 H# h  e# r
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( i& i$ Q8 d$ Qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 j. e. j" }! F$ F6 z0 W) `& |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 x/ ^* ~( h$ R$ g0 G
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 V, t7 h1 I2 c. w6 X1 l& U8 xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: z, v4 |3 g+ [: q% e) Crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# ]" }2 g  _4 g" X) C7 |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ L; W: ~2 W6 m- Q% ^3 W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# [. D" O* s. S! tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
% J, K" D) J# R* l  Mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 _8 C5 Z0 n3 n: q' x* z* W5 l4 irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  K7 W: j; e8 h+ s1 [: x: iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 Z1 [5 J: W( r# wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; N2 D( J8 I' B6 y( W; i/ s% \% ?: don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." c" w9 [  a7 a3 b0 W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) `7 r9 p; B% P; I, k# Kresale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ o4 S* }$ Z, g8 A+ y& @exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 l. P7 g& L- E# z; Mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: H2 [( d* Z- m8 R  p; P
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  b( m2 S% `. N5 N  V  v  s
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: N' X6 m8 T" |# H( D( n2 p
leg down over 2009.4 D6 N, \2 A- l6 `! A! u# e

6 h# f- k% X" ]1 V4 m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, o6 s; n5 @" }9 q  g9 o+ b( FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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; \) I: P0 Y" N- N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 8 y% g% z* b8 H& _/ m! b
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子$ J& ]% l8 F9 F4 C

3 V* o+ i' F- ?& d* K, J6 Chttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( r9 E/ y$ `8 M' M% [" g
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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