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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 V) ?4 `8 ]9 vWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
( ?+ A% E( i' `6 {0 Z* ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" o w: b! `' z* d) Y: \, Q( }% R
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 Q* O: y4 r7 \. r; e( r2 ]2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: m! q/ I; Z1 G8 s! M) bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( G# {4 K. d5 {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, g, u3 J# w1 a6 d: X* ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* F2 X7 ~: i2 Z- c3 g/ u
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 ]0 g3 q; k8 x6 W% ^9 d
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ e# _, A! X, f4 L" t" v& [
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 ~: x8 [' A: s; i$ u; B0 c
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
' a7 u4 b) q0 {8 y, A$ g b- j+ I* O# [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& a! B9 v( J' S! K
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 E7 q+ I( C; v( u2 U- ~) ^
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& [+ Y2 G2 b! W1 Z; B30,000 new households will form in the province during5 j& j9 n) u( L3 y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., n$ T/ A K+ D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
u8 h" l( E# a4 ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 K! _+ {: x% zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* Y% Z1 ?( u! z/ D5 l" khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* [- A* r- h3 { @. M/ [' N
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ e" J* @9 r& h4 U, |- Y8 N
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
}* s$ q, c/ U' J3 xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- ], _/ S6 ]9 Y" H% g
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' b* r) f8 m, I, x! ?$ t1 Z! c
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- z% K( g- X% g" `* @3 z4 n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 e" ?8 |3 k8 Y1 t' Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ Y- y$ ?5 R8 h7 N- Q8 Abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 X" T; w7 U. H# F1 ?- }) G5 Ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 `* ~( y) K/ C p/ k
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
b, \: f# ?6 K2 ~unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. X4 Q' V( K3 U8 T8 Q/ m9 rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( G: U- ^9 c- m$ _1 M9 Q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# Q8 }2 G& Q5 d0 e% A
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- n* @8 C& C; P8 I( pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ ?9 g' a, e$ b' G. L% G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% c7 f' i9 h+ W/ a. gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# n3 g; s0 H$ k6 \7 n0 `$ e- L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 {# b8 L2 ?: Q) e4 ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! n# L7 l2 T! b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& T9 _2 a; g% [3 F- }. L5 arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% R; P/ x( K9 _- Q Y1 U
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even j$ J( d* x/ ~6 W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; M0 P& ^9 n! G: C5 o$ R+ R% W0 B/ f7 fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* M, b8 l4 f1 V8 W) ? b5 O. \
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ y! y1 |# w) e1 tresale price in February is evidence that past prices
! Y7 a; E2 B- v+ J* [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. l* l! {! J8 z! J v7 V. A
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 P. l) _4 A& V3 \0 [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. A+ u( c+ `$ Z7 X* D) d" oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ Z/ P7 [0 h0 w
leg down over 2009.+ g2 l: |( N. i6 [: G6 t! Y7 c
) h+ U8 T& {8 V$ X3 M
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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