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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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: L" _6 {/ x# \! z1 tTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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7 ?/ h+ L, m$ P: q$ `- |6 P* lThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. # z1 d" o  r- h  {& O2 d
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. + u7 t. b, R* x( f8 c
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 \# D: u8 o4 W$ q% U

; e: \# H& L; _& r; oTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.: @/ G& w$ g) O1 l

9 Q: ^$ `9 g+ L! Z9 a# P0 r"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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: y7 ~; ]$ u! D  a* vTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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. ^7 N1 k; I2 X0 z0 G% G  zMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 _8 g" a, P' i8 Y5 l& ?

8 y3 G3 V* A+ C: Jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 C: y9 U2 ?, N) A
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  j9 l7 f- ]2 P 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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; y% w/ a3 H0 f2 j+ d[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. D; v$ @7 O& p; I跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; U: @, F5 Y' A. ^' B很多人都回学校深造去了( h. C. Z9 n. _+ y
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta1 z& O7 L# K& K. Z# G; r! ?9 {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ M8 N. Q1 C. U/ e. ~- Y3 l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% i9 |8 T" O4 X) i+ D  r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 e/ b0 q- V0 ^
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 [+ K' s5 X* ~3 b) [formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. c" }; Y; J' z: G+ ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! B, h3 V5 I% y) Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" g- y) S. z3 l0 |4 D* i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( I: Z; \; F" T
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! o" r7 L& R% p2 K; `: W
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. J1 v8 }6 K) @3 V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 k9 B( @0 y, `  H
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- }, I" Q) {6 V( @4 G6 m: \* b  O7 \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
4 S" x2 Q2 I5 ~# o! ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. U) f3 r  V8 G4 a30,000 new households will form in the province during
" d9 {: L, a0 d2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 V$ a2 p. k. h: n9 _. {3 c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; \# |2 t9 L2 r/ a2 {- `( `& U
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 d, Y" m; J: D( _/ F: b
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' V" i+ J5 q' b* u# }+ d8 l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 Z- c6 k! I; L6 `9 F, u* r
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 E9 F  z/ [8 \7 Q8 i- n6 V7 eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, A; m7 p. b5 D  g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. V4 V  C; ]/ o: }' D6 E" P) \7 @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( ]4 f8 U, w2 U' Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& B  Q" g2 c, C' k' L( }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 n7 {" @3 i: l8 J. ~6 csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: I% i- c3 m9 R& }- T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& u8 s! n# t; K7 u+ K4 ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ f" j( L0 U" T  {+ r& Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 l. v0 U8 W* |* Z" E
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 N/ O. d6 {" h% `3 Z6 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 Z8 K% `0 T  I7 l' U
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ J. g3 t) p! N9 Q4 [
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 m* V; t7 h/ s0 oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled. A" e' y( g" f) K+ P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 G: Z* n% q' t# M* x  L$ {- s3 _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 K1 D  ]9 t4 a$ \4 X0 @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% d6 R4 D  I2 ?( HAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan0 H# L0 h* U. h5 B9 z7 P
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* Z/ S: |/ f. E% l$ A6 w6 q& Wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" E4 r% _7 F0 n/ Q, ]- S! Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ e$ D( {* _, O# [though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- B0 Y, j9 C* x/ t" y& V
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% ]: d5 X" L7 ]: _, L: o
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' \) b6 K; M4 V8 g% Y1 ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 u# ~2 T4 @0 a. V0 a$ lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove2 t2 E3 n) Q7 M& S$ z1 n2 S3 W  V4 g
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, ]2 t( d6 O5 [, Q! X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! ?9 E, |( v1 e
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 v7 [8 u0 \- [; kleg down over 2009.
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# i/ n  v1 Y: k" @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ a6 u2 l  a. a' wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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$ |- I+ N( x, S' I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. : H/ x' n5 L, _; @: f1 h8 k* H% K
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; C, L. ^  k& D' j: S' p, X5 M2 J% w

& U6 ]! e4 n. P4 W6 _: m0 u$ mhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments6 n( P; |0 N9 I1 J: u5 V
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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