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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 7 ~1 h. c) v  B% X6 {. ^& V2 {

2 z8 `  {. ?2 S, {4 g9 XThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. : w" A) K" c8 s! b

; H8 ~3 Y2 Y7 u, x( V"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 4 }: W3 D8 B/ t! [  B

1 l8 Z0 m8 U9 _9 ?( aNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; Q! v5 \! H1 a# |, b
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 v7 U2 x  F, H. _/ w

/ }$ Z* q* l$ b0 r6 s! n/ s* q4 {TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year./ _: P. C! e# `1 x6 Y. I8 b
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; V" e0 [7 O) ^7 S) [: D* |

# Q# i' L' N( K# ]http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。0 f# v1 g" b* F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 # f9 b" m6 V) l6 g/ i
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
3 c; H' L9 f. C嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
. e. w/ s  e* Z! wWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 w) E  J3 s- Q! K0 g4 _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ t, n6 M' b3 r9 j0 `/ e* @7 r' V! ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& j$ O( v* `" J2 q" {3 ]
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% R0 g9 A9 ~$ M! @formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 q  h8 Z4 y& I) i+ @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 {/ `# N9 `' U% k5 p
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 P( C* _0 l) y& ^  c# E. s' Y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 X+ A# \& t1 E1 @7 ^# [pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ J% T, U9 l# y/ H* v: _* H
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" _! B# n7 R; }1 s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- ~6 }( W  q: x
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  ?! Q6 z% V; u0 V' I8 I
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 N9 [* }, l, ?4 F& }, P! H- p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 @( `* u0 B% U" [; e: ]. ?$ }6 ]0 n
30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 s  p! p  n5 ~+ Y: ]+ q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' H0 i  ~2 f8 {/ `$ J! G* Y% yEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 p1 w: g- h2 O; F% w( F; z% Y4 @
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* |6 `5 L5 ^" x# @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. @3 E' }0 `, M8 jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 V1 C+ w& F1 M: i
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" {& h% o, \9 F) t' ]during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* n  w0 w, x( i8 X  S- a; Zsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, k, ^- D/ w" Y! I- c+ O; Xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 l4 g$ @# c1 O# m# iexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 o! }# k7 V" z6 o/ R
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# {: t/ ?- N/ U7 r" j  c) u1 t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 n( {& t, [+ G4 e' C
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ G$ [9 j/ Z# y4 R  dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" u* R+ ?/ Z. ^
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ Y7 a2 v( `1 r% \" N! P  h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- B7 v$ ~3 Y7 s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& ~( k' C7 Y+ D8 n, T
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 |) S4 V! F1 `$ y3 s9 s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# e' ?2 T& G$ p3 ]7 o" Z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: q- q) `4 J* W0 N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; M% T$ H. ^; p; Y) a. `# Y1 fThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' Y6 t, ?7 E3 E( l$ s$ `boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' D9 M* T2 |, T! @Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( m# D9 {, ~6 p# e2 o1 F
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 Z6 Z6 Q* _; V& l. |relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. P) k1 B) Q- m3 m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even8 v1 J) @; y! O7 \7 T. }
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 J; [. `* q: ]8 ^* N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 Y3 m+ @: v- p' K* z0 d0 Y9 u! uThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' I# M% l. `; j# M# }8 Wresale price in February is evidence that past prices) `+ m  ?0 d  L/ Z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 g  U# q# `5 U; q$ q' f! Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; Z0 k6 V& I% q8 D" I1 A  }
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! t. }4 b( P9 v# s/ i! @0 `1 d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  b% v6 z; |, X( Y+ J0 _8 h4 ?
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. ]0 T' N. i, h4 wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 R% |* e2 }4 }% n3 E5 `翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子5 T3 c; e& V% p) T3 C0 z

: y4 f% Q# _" M1 |/ k0 x% K0 dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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