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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" v% H( A8 q+ @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 ]7 v0 L9 @% f8 D+ C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% u% M1 S6 n: B. ]- ^$ c' K \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, W1 P5 [% J" @4 s8 l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ V* D7 t0 y+ Z/ f) `6 q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# Q H2 J z0 f4 x, z* X8 o& `from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ }( \* b* d! athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ S' e% P% j# {; l5 c* R4 _# Tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 o1 U! X/ v5 V$ z0 A- ~& h/ P0 P& J! d
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 A) z5 U5 a5 G- u' m2 r Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. l! s7 i# \# ] o+ C. J; N
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 O% `9 H* f3 E/ n* ^
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 Q8 l' Z8 \# I3 ~+ {% n
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 n6 j) _- `! shomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ ]4 D1 a$ m9 w ^30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 D+ q( n* ~1 ^' g6 `, Q6 P2 a4 v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 \$ a" x3 Z. t) y9 }8 rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: m0 h- H- F, B9 ^+ O
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) e+ @* m- n# ^% e: E6 ?
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) x8 w& D) }; Z! F8 R m% Mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' z3 \8 W3 C6 B6 m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 k5 u( C0 W0 }, x/ k4 Y0 [0 vduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* O$ E- e- t! {) C. i4 x+ r( ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; }6 P/ a9 E- ~4 W8 mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% B, j/ q) m3 l% Y- _( Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" z6 C# {! J1 `1 h% y" S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" ]- N, V) X& Vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% O, B: w* R2 K% g, `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 O& E; g" n2 ^
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" z+ H8 t5 Q4 r; e3 Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# {5 @: k/ C; bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: z6 d6 c) m9 G1 g/ H; L& Erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the. U6 e" S u1 L6 l6 n
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s G2 L, B1 f! }/ p2 b4 @
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- d6 N3 h$ @ {% q+ tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 B$ Q+ f ~% l# F6 b. o% Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* c& Q# G6 @1 p+ ]7 |/ a$ r
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 v& f5 I* r+ c0 ?' ~0 F [
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- E. f( [4 n! Y% H2 w7 N0 r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ | s2 a) }6 u8 dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ ?+ G- c0 }% d1 z$ E8 \
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 Z) H/ ]$ [% s# Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 c# g# {# D2 Q8 Q- k0 cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; A* {/ j8 V! A) Non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" Y: I! h7 f# E8 m5 `The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! u9 S: V Y: B! ?* _$ n$ N. M. eresale price in February is evidence that past prices+ D' k8 Z8 [! N# F
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ Y7 S$ F9 P# |* h
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ R, V2 g' U# M. D2 ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, f4 W5 P, X! s3 r, c) NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 M: i7 J( W3 i, P. B9 N
leg down over 2009.5 U/ _" W% v% D0 a9 c
5 K3 D+ N N2 q5 t1 K; P0 j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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