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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta/ A5 [6 l2 V5 c% E* r: M; r. ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 q8 ^" [; s+ C d$ _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ m4 z! }! B9 L! @* ]4 ^) _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; q, i( g+ G; n, z; @ l0 N& b# S% E! w2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 H$ N' q) m& y( i% k3 G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 S! |: r0 `4 |! T
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 ] r5 e" u7 p2 ], gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( V* o! {6 Y+ wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' w3 Y: V1 b5 n. F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; H x# c5 }2 `3 I2 M, \ i3 W0 W
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- }0 H- h5 U& s8 I
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 N. Y2 W. \0 C# Z" h y! n* j2 Z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 P" X. T4 ?7 \- S5 B' X, Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 p. d; s: a8 Q! `3 ?2 D
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# `" {/ v7 p# K
30,000 new households will form in the province during
- Z8 ^9 R6 ^& E" b$ y0 T2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., t: C' D" g1 y& A, C5 n, B* P+ V( l
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 R5 V4 A$ B4 e! V
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 t7 Q- U! n& m, C, e* Dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) ?5 \7 y$ u2 S( \9 e5 v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# n! X# E5 A+ v' qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 u4 S) U% [; s( i; U; uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 x8 |3 w1 L7 d' u, }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( _% G# ^7 S; \( b. Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 E8 n7 d# @/ J6 s$ A/ [excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( _/ a9 H$ b" Z+ z( u. k( O9 C1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' V7 K% Y" C0 j/ t. T* |sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- L& m7 I/ Z( M
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 ?: N7 h8 c. u6 B
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 c/ M+ I. X% P% ~# d! zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ b4 i2 ]; T5 i: |
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 \/ [# q3 v/ |. W8 grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) o5 @6 i1 f8 fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ [/ G" g" q6 ?0 H7 tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% f2 I5 t( `7 m6 ~" h! M( c& i$ M' U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% `7 g' D: r9 ~+ [rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. y/ A1 l M) N5 H YThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 N& I5 h7 b0 _8 R& p
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: U: M" G0 M6 z& x! H! DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 @0 B. G; T/ r( ^( o4 v) qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! h% n1 Z6 M% I6 K/ L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: n" R# M" o. P4 X4 y( @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. w4 { ]) w" b+ O0 T, k( Lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 |5 p0 t* P1 U* z# t+ S7 {
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- @; n! P9 L$ iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! |; F) f! N) O. B q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 W" T1 A: ^* ~* V6 p ^/ M
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& a: ~* w1 g6 A& H* ` c
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ z1 w5 w7 K3 }
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
D6 F; z% L! C, g' oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; w* f$ W) _; J6 I- y2 n2 q- d* g8 u
leg down over 2009.' b& j( |3 u# j- S( q# @
0 w5 |1 B" T6 e; n8 \5 G
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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