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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 2 V. D/ ?' ]6 _3 _& w) l
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  K; a" ?0 R5 e+ h9 ~- z8 e

' f6 K% g: j6 {0 T+ wTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ j- t$ c2 o/ J8 K. S1 D
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # D& O) I% G6 ?9 W, a; U% s
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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0 p# A/ H) o! c& W& r  yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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" Y; w  F8 Y' h7 z9 a' A[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。5 `' W, j6 E' L
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 $ Y: [; @1 `+ P. Z
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

# C2 Z/ H1 v5 p/ P! W很多人都回学校深造去了
0 x' \1 ]* t$ @# W. }) \嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; H8 @  T5 W3 i, B6 g( A7 _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- K& ?% {, a( B8 w& }" k" Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 x7 j9 `0 l: v2 L3 r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 |7 T% q! l0 l  D6 y3 K1 c, {% F/ v
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ u( {2 _& u' E% j
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ ^9 F8 @9 ~* }: Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- U6 v# J  h9 S: S
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: e" k" g0 v* Z% I/ t: ~) m
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( D1 k2 o1 I4 jpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( E3 |# t/ G- Z# a3 ?# Y9 Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: I0 E, k" b" @$ a& W& R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% p( g: A" q9 a$ l; Q( i  ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' V$ ?# d) C- S+ P% I" q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 q8 w# O$ k& O3 ]# e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ i% E% U7 l, p) b
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: Y  G3 ?$ m5 w4 U  ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- w" s: f4 ]3 e2 E) c) KEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 A7 i& N+ y  M! D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* n( t9 q  M3 a7 ~  w  h( ]" K
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 T4 P& r5 V9 J0 \% d  phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. X& y- h  G& U+ l
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' ?+ C1 Z% S5 w. w1 \6 q7 ?during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ t% y3 y" Z. I( ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 l1 F. P5 b) \. C' ^; z5 E& g* `, iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 g( _. G/ K9 W7 K+ e: r3 j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* }: @8 t/ @! N# S; n5 J+ T1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" j9 [: ?% W/ {; [* y' e; y+ f2 z# o
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  J1 V% Y/ V! T; Y( F( G
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' Z8 y+ h" f( [" ?4 c' a2 |$ C7 ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) s4 x, [" e9 D9 z! junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 I: g6 Y5 Q' J- |* E1 q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- T/ M( _2 k) i# D
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: ^" K, c' B, k! [8 h" m) f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 q+ ^) z9 O. C; c+ d8 Y# @5 \2 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 |% k( d6 O. `, G+ yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 P; e! S9 b% [5 Irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, z; j: F6 Q. N! P) u; s1 i* [$ hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 [, j/ q: \) Q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# S* P0 f) Q# V2 ~+ L0 s+ eAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan- X' z/ W1 J- m  }
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: F. K0 h5 S4 h  \7 \0 j2 c8 `4 grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ R' u; V; ~' [' b% |2 J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 f& Q4 S- k9 J: @! nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 L, _2 x2 |+ Z4 ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 n1 K% s* u8 V6 q% y! MThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* H  {4 b% ?+ {1 t7 vresale price in February is evidence that past prices8 ^4 W* w) d/ ~1 K
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% m% P/ }) h! O7 S4 q5 b
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
  M5 A: H! J, c2 |7 i' J5 F# gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' `; M: q+ ~  m: }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 Z; |+ u" C8 T% v( qleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 f% j) O: Y9 ?' {  o' `, i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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: H( ?+ c7 p* m. q) _! R/ @- V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   W8 U4 E/ B# S6 Y9 A
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% q* n6 Y! w/ Y% [- Shttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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