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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta/ G$ u% `+ F5 y5 ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its r6 F0 q+ l! `7 p" V2 |* H
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; P; q8 l& \# \+ j2 }' ?: V4 u0 F: Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 T( w7 |$ p4 Z5 ?2 i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ J3 d8 {1 i& y6 U, ?formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- C) [. U+ C1 @6 ifrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' U: I$ b" Q: sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ R$ r. B8 {" O0 U
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) I& E8 h" N" t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 o* W$ D/ T4 O I! L; G
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 } U: B5 S3 u1 H* A9 Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% N& Z$ l0 }: m j; tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; u V8 f! t9 X# a; K
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ d2 m; v4 R4 h* H7 R M
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 X& ^+ M! T" `$ I
30,000 new households will form in the province during2 z& d* X1 q! S) R) T% l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 Z1 ?$ Z& w6 X6 |7 H" f
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 P7 d! G- @: f- W7 \( Ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
3 a, i4 U* D0 a5 n! [, R! X. ~( |- ?4 Fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ N' X" b8 ~. U. X5 S, I% I
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' U, k& P$ ^' l% V5 j9 Thouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- \$ M. L/ V! r5 g4 k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- a5 V& {" A+ e8 `. U. H" [# @
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 B2 w k7 A" M6 g1 Qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is S+ t5 T/ x; U- ~, u) P! B
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# X& T4 H1 F6 o7 \; r
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 {" {4 F- J7 Z: \. x) W. J/ ]
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ R; @5 P# n1 p7 n/ u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) O) H0 b' f7 ?) T+ ?+ ]- ]
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 T0 ?$ `9 D2 Y& ?' o* W, M
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 G- p" C6 q8 S+ ~: S) y0 k0 Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 V9 v5 e0 y# Z) J+ p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 L+ D9 R: ?3 L' k5 z. f7 G0 D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 z4 r2 e5 Z; v5 s) V |+ R7 q! }major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ ]7 G8 z0 l6 d' \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
r5 `2 C7 U3 {8 H+ b7 i" H" ?rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
N) |, Q0 C ^+ {3 GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 t1 D& t% \% s& _boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, ~2 s! Z G$ J: tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( s: W. n! ^& u1 v
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: f |9 |+ ?$ C4 G8 Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 ]- W* `* H6 Y; \, Sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ b1 M2 T# f, g9 s1 ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# I9 X! W. ?- R2 K# Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, k5 `! l, ~% C7 r) f6 ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) }. G# ?/ [" g& y; Uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
& Z( e6 V) _( gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 o) H% v' u, c s
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 P" \0 q4 @" V4 G4 a; p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 b# t6 U g3 I) H% Q0 R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& M3 j, `: c7 M9 d1 fleg down over 2009., N( ~# U; W9 d2 X3 `" I! M
5 u! Y$ @) C8 N3 y- J% Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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