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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 x& \; \& r% k9 H1 Q  h  c
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ! |3 M' v5 N* u! T- @" D  u
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. & G2 d  r0 {; U2 X

# I% z) h# U5 U8 c( V3 ?/ tNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' j9 A: _" p* D; C* u) ^0 W& Z

" o3 L/ b& ~' r4 }3 J1 h"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; K) B( o3 }! {- k& u. x3 {. x
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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8 G0 P2 b9 w! m' U2 W[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' e, m2 e1 o( q1 o  V0 p
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 i+ w5 Q& x" r6 {5 {  e

! o* {* r0 ^8 S5 q- I( L3 U: v[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ) E" O( y: D7 G, l0 `
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
; P) {+ |& K. V+ @8 b5 j- U* l嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) m1 _3 K' m# x9 m, W0 H5 G6 B1 @Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 D& \8 r# }9 [9 @boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" p( P! ]/ i5 `$ S, _) jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 n) _' P: p7 {1 H, R  x- g
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 g; D* z+ M' e1 Fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: i- Z* o/ q% z1 n+ M* w. Ifrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 j7 }4 r: D1 N' y/ B5 c8 j8 O
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  j% Y1 T1 x+ ]( N) h+ n+ z! rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 W; E# f4 r& J" b' R
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. _& N9 v" u1 Y. D) C% u' E! R1 Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" J& R: X; s. k- t8 q8 G8 O
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 }; r7 A, C; x3 D7 N0 ?6 Eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 h- G! q: D1 kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ Y  R2 |; ?/ O( i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! i; Z1 E5 B0 \0 H+ ~1 o
30,000 new households will form in the province during. D# r3 M! o$ y8 w3 m* p7 E) S
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 O0 V: v! H  e; w* N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 i" c3 _; L+ N/ v: P: W; Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* l3 U: u7 j) ^9 r- k$ n: x
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 K# D- r: q. W4 o5 e0 H: @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( o0 L4 ]* e0 u5 S/ D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 ^; v  D$ f. w" Z7 T/ Pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# [) ^% p# L/ j0 Ksales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) P! ?/ E4 p1 Y; y2 o" H- L, g
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" A. T7 a" W6 i! `# P' f4 Nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 N; M# n* N+ D7 o( q  R  ~, g
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 |8 X; g6 D- C' d. @8 J) P+ lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 p. C* ]# N2 i! }& c8 Z4 g9 O0 X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 t( l- ^1 T6 F( V' ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 L3 R3 D  ~0 Z) h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
  ]. u2 I# y: G/ Z) O/ sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* u3 P5 G3 e% ~" B% T
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ q  ]) v( Z1 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 I' e/ K+ C$ X5 U' ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 p7 S1 Q4 R9 k6 I4 ~% \" [8 sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( |( V' `0 o8 h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& z: J( W2 |8 z$ }1 mThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
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Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( G2 N) V0 n6 G* Z7 }1 j+ j$ ]9 i8 d0 Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ S: h9 ]* G4 I6 V4 wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, b& d1 A0 n7 ]1 _3 e; V0 Oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( S5 J; F  G# q# @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
6 ]9 k8 ^/ p* g& {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., N* W$ D" w5 G+ ]2 [: x
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 ]' d( D5 n. ?2 m& }7 wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
: R6 _" j$ a0 r( jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# Q" v, ]$ I4 W1 {& Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ q( w) b6 v) A0 g& cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 Z1 u; l- L7 T0 D. Q& I  F
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 R8 R9 Y  F! M0 a7 g
leg down over 2009.
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0 ?1 E3 I/ I9 i9 B3 L' n& a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% A/ o  v6 D- _6 u( _5 f4 h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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2 X9 A0 J; p* r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
7 V% j2 x# _0 n6 \% ?! W4 v' F5 X翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子/ |9 I5 d* X& w3 Y6 j9 ~8 U
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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