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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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/ I5 L" N8 U4 _TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . }7 p4 j/ {. i+ ?
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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# m" `- E$ U* O: e, A6 t5 I"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.   q, w# u/ o6 `5 l, \' i* d" I) \
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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4 L- j4 Z  O- n& j% K) M8 e/ aMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 p5 o6 v5 z, m3 N- i& _- q

$ r, N7 I# ^8 Q, x/ A$ O/ m0 Ghttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,6 F) O! G; u2 Y/ ?, S# }* E

7 F* Q; Z! p- M. w# W4 C1 L4 J[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
) G9 p) [+ `2 @$ L/ y* u4 } 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, ?; M' u1 n+ W8 u4 b. _

& B) {3 X- [1 c8 |6 e2 ?- z[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 U5 R; a% i; S+ x. m- N
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

" B7 Q' l4 F  u, Q4 i: G- m很多人都回学校深造去了9 n# w  }3 L+ n  e! P8 z% p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
9 t6 ~" [7 t4 q$ G4 T* IWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 B" Q' ~& a! @boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  i& z( \5 K2 C, L4 mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
4 W6 p9 ?8 P3 e' N& b4 S; w8 l  E' k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& Q' h  K0 |# D& R+ G) i4 |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& Y/ E' X: U& z2 T8 D
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% K% L  Z2 L0 `0 m% U# \the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; G% P6 _; E. \: K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 h: \+ p! [  Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% e; `+ y7 \! Q4 |: F# L* g  Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 v- \  `$ N) @7 z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! f( _/ S. R: E: |/ F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 j8 b3 ?' k- k* j' Y% j: Dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
% G5 K+ w' k# t% \+ Ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  s) A3 U  y6 `% ~' U" v- R0 a
30,000 new households will form in the province during. A% |7 {- h$ s: `  @
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' c. ~+ F. N' N  p% b' i2 Q8 R3 mEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- M7 O3 D( R. ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 ^; o+ ^- ~2 B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; l8 F- Y: r: w2 N
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# f& X2 R1 F6 O$ Y% fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* W' b$ g  Z. r+ R$ c. s2 Wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  L% E( w$ @, _, g5 N- A3 q( p) Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 F2 E' m" t( c9 _$ Xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" Q6 |$ V5 K; y& g  f
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" Z& O* U: H  `* E! F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 u2 A% ?; r% L) i
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ M9 z% f' F( Z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 B& R% D: j" m+ h. j2 [3 A) l) u' qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: f0 l; T. ?' u% E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 B0 Y( z/ V4 t* {- ^
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 F! U/ E7 k: F  h+ L8 F' Wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ b1 t( Z* ^2 d6 M
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% Z0 ^- B( H% p7 E
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 i: r( k6 A7 w  h& p2 F" wof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 Q( S' }0 g! [  Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- t9 m" z+ f6 [$ f" X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s  I$ _9 ]' y. _1 ^: p
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 L) V4 m9 H5 A0 f( t0 y6 k) {" o8 }Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 f9 P9 t+ T2 r$ K# }9 S' O: [housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 q  e, j, O9 x9 hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale; k( ]+ x* n  N9 p$ Q, v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 u& g: ?. k6 q# v8 U! g6 a, Ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 Q: L" ^% a0 W  C# t) @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( g3 F0 ?  q+ r9 ?3 _  |
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ f7 {: f9 s! l4 M. }3 q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices; P+ ~# M9 E$ a$ ~2 T
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) H  l1 v, s5 d% M& e4 qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, r8 M  F% y# J' t1 J& ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ R+ K  w/ h6 M/ K7 g0 ?+ g$ i! u+ f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: `& |. s' z% f5 P5 oleg down over 2009.
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4 [8 f6 n3 h% U* F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( O' l- E' s2 `; i8 n- s% R2 V
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- t9 M* H2 C& d翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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" A; G1 c8 N. ^/ T$ j1 ^1 phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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+ F' m# E' S; D. x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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