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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta, J2 O: [* P) W c2 |
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& T3 Y. _7 K$ ]& c5 z! J2 A$ cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. O. o3 R$ p( T: hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 p' R7 e8 w5 R2 K- l/ t2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( x" N# c9 Z J; w* T; fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 e1 V( E! N4 U% e' u- Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# N5 D+ F9 F7 f, p: g" `
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 G/ @% a" D. B! U+ l
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 X4 f0 s( N E1 A1 n1 g' i p
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' U, S9 o& f6 \+ O7 dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 b5 }$ l) N- _0 z {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 ~" R5 d' ?! c# L* V a1 x
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" m, ~( m! A+ p8 u7 K3 ?, oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, O) h" d9 z6 X* J% K r# `homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- @ Y" s# b* b/ a, U& e30,000 new households will form in the province during
# z2 o# {# m7 `- o( J0 t' k2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 K! l6 _3 [" d% S! L/ X+ l7 T
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" l3 h7 [, ^- G9 Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 G- d3 @9 Y5 X# |7 `0 Bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 ~, l6 {/ W3 j2 H$ qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' g/ r, i8 Y" l: t* S2 n* d- w) T" w
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* s* [8 `/ T; t% ^ J9 }; B+ H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( j+ t4 S4 L4 d, k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 r4 ^ E" t s+ x# m0 ]$ u" K" Z
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' T# r4 f5 ]# o0 E4 C C3 J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ N, W8 [- C3 A# A* \3 O5 @) A; _
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# U# \) g8 }; N* [( \sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 T( C6 Z2 z% p! D2 k# @( Sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& h9 \1 O: b% K2 Q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( X3 q% p% B( U7 b }/ n
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 ^) y# }5 M2 d( Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% n. Y) |1 h" v( J6 A
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" \: t6 c$ \; K( M8 E: ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. |' \: g4 W* N2 A& h) b4 j
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 X0 Q2 D7 R1 k( v2 G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 B# F- S' t& A8 Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 s+ P8 r( E8 t7 h, qThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) m X2 y6 H9 g9 g2 f8 {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 H# F: H/ [. k1 O' H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& B- K+ Q6 o' {# _& Y- nhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 N. O0 r4 P' S; P/ yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 \1 \$ d4 }% }# j8 _+ I7 C! G2 uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: c( n R) B& Z3 @7 Rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: \2 K1 l8 A# b0 x" F, Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 @6 E' x$ l0 G1 `" `& a( q# u
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 I, Z1 q# C0 z; O) a% H9 z0 Mresale price in February is evidence that past prices- s9 n9 @) c. }( V9 E& n, R
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 K6 h' H; P* N) J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% H1 }; k7 d; S4 t) B
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 J+ d3 l6 @+ ~: s5 y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ [( J3 Y, C3 E! h
leg down over 2009.
! J/ x; w% @# ^# z _& T2 ~2 u# G4 }& \$ d; I% C6 O
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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