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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ X% h$ |) c- p/ ^7 H8 J; I' DWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ e+ f' J" d/ w. \9 F) Dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
# D: z7 Y8 v$ e0 S! L8 o$ xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- Q% C7 N, Z4 M" K5 O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, o* |# ~; h( \) V% E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 ?( H2 @5 w [1 |% v/ nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," a- g' g4 P. R
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 [& _+ i/ O l* f9 g( X5 D
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* c' ^% `" I/ Z% w6 p( ~( T2 N9 F" ]
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 r' W6 l! K, U( W5 ?/ l
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- ^9 `3 j9 j. U7 x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ w$ P1 S5 Z7 n- q7 g( X; s; R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ M: c9 M* T5 u! v( s8 l7 I! hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; s$ q1 z8 r6 V
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 ^& B6 `' N: u30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 g% A" D" M8 w) q6 r B# R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. ?( |1 k6 m' d. v. u4 oEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ j/ h% r3 L* W$ phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. i3 L% l( M J( D
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 W6 h6 H" n; O0 b& i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 h! O3 c! `3 o+ ?+ P) lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ O" G4 l$ ?( S" k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 _+ `# M' g% f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ H7 j! [" ]* ^$ _, n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; t) \7 D) P5 n
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# Y- L0 t4 Q4 s1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
q5 i6 e( ]7 a2 A2 ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- @! B4 \0 J2 ]+ ~4 C
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 Q0 C: v3 Q/ y9 }two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& p0 J) p( P" ~' b2 h! U* q/ ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 P# g4 b3 h- n0 O1 Cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' f$ s! t) a- i( w# c" _6 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# z- w# y( Q, c& L3 ]8 c* o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% c- ~; i' J9 a9 V
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% \7 c# a! ]3 K; \# o: H1 }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% R' }- Y$ i- {, L0 orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' Q" B: L5 W! b! V0 U5 b' z0 v9 N
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 @3 c: f6 `- M/ u
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., n* h0 J0 q0 w: H; {
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! _+ x& h" r/ K0 N$ Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, U3 x' B' _- n5 I7 c& i) ~$ Mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 }2 Z6 S. O) D& r/ Kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even" \ g4 k7 P' E5 Y4 }7 C5 O/ C/ Y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- z* O3 x+ b" w: M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 o9 ?* C6 X. A Q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average8 h( N- n8 X4 Q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices) w5 j/ |3 m. J/ M9 B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" ?, D" {$ |8 x; w
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 O4 m; w) m- W1 q! E9 q! s9 n: W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 n ~. O6 l. y# eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 f. ]: _: p' p
leg down over 2009.' n1 k" U+ A6 p5 Y
5 o' T1 y3 X/ g p
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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