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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 @. v1 S! n+ M" t0 Y7 A2 @4 PWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 l H/ {' {/ F
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! R7 o) R; T, J1 a
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 y1 c% A Y; M0 _/ K
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 K4 i7 h( O# x& F: a* aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 G0 x% g( r! T$ ?, T
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: S, q6 d1 Y. |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, i, N' ?# w) ]6 ` L; j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' t% c& @" D7 y8 h( y3 B
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) L: b# d1 ?' F2 z4 v" F0 Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 F3 G, k8 g- h# S9 K; }( z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 y$ u9 I+ b( O& m9 R7 n6 l% gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( E+ s: C3 ~/ O& ~3 r: L
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- [5 z2 C/ [% T# J; rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; ^* K. |7 P n! U$ {! a+ @
30,000 new households will form in the province during
" f4 w) @" }2 D8 i; r! H: ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' \ s5 Y5 _$ t3 g/ X9 VEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: U! P/ ?. E! w% m6 W1 Jhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( o! Z7 g U! s {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ X! t$ k. n; S: n( X2 p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. M# J) N; ?) x: d
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
- r( s( A) e$ T2 R+ v4 rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 V8 V/ v3 P* D: u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: m# ~9 b% {4 y. lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 b/ d1 T p9 j' @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( {4 g6 ?. k) j1 i, j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; Q& u8 ?1 X( J7 v, T1 wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 H# v5 m, f6 N8 ^2 i+ Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! O8 f+ _ v4 U7 ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 p" U( x. |0 @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 o8 X7 X. [+ M% s' i) W' `# R3 sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) |5 a! D+ @1 n( c5 q0 e) h# |7 @
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' t+ D- Z+ g0 n. I2 r$ i9 zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" r; V1 a0 G* q- d4 H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; f0 m2 m4 K' W' I5 hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled7 @5 D" v. y5 Z3 }5 i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ q) Y/ F: \" N4 y$ P8 e
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ M" x) I2 q6 @- U( P+ `$ Wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: f# _5 E, x( w) u# G) `: S
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
* C' C0 { x, H ]5 vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( x: W* X5 m$ c. x: J7 n5 v) [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 ~4 k Y' k# O" r5 j4 Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 `3 E4 \+ ?9 Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: J8 Q0 ~. t6 X
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- |3 y* i y& j% CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ N: \9 y, Y; K/ d% |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' t! }4 Q3 B* J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
B* o% t# y* ^; W8 Uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! l" Z, f) T* u: p( ?6 X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* ]( c; o1 p4 dAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* h, P$ n; H4 _9 e/ w+ O
leg down over 2009.
- y: k9 r0 y3 y4 q3 Q. ]$ P% r7 F7 A* e9 a4 w4 @
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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