埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1976|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
& _1 U8 F/ z9 h" D
" `( ]' u; Q" n3 B& Z+ ITD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ [5 Z! p: _) C' p2 M! l: h0 J

! E# }- o9 N1 g  a0 n* MThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % {4 S6 ~% N# J1 q+ A
4 d7 R) h+ V: k# `
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
# B, s6 k1 w( K; Y% R$ a3 c
, U+ ~$ @& }4 E# kNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
4 E4 M& {) m9 z, y% ?% d" e5 l
8 a4 v; R7 H+ e! LTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
$ F& F9 _4 n: `( i/ l9 o7 h. d- S7 ^2 o4 J* g% h5 U
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
7 y2 `9 k+ K( w( N+ ^3 M& f' K1 [; {7 j6 N3 d1 \! y+ j) d! Z
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.5 z. s1 H& P% q* R7 a9 f! Q

/ g( a& P, t' r1 S* xMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
# U) I0 o$ K( L' W" f* F# T( x) x" _( t( q) {: U
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

2 `& [: B1 q1 U( p' {# `
- g9 `) _3 R9 O& D2 b" DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,/ Q! ^- \; n$ `: y& I6 l

: E2 {- R( r, z: v: g/ U) {" ~[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 P4 [& @- A5 E4 A, S/ ^( L' u 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
3 t# G% M( i- h; b. N. A9 i9 ?6 y( o5 q
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ M8 J& {( _) ~$ ?. k跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

1 }6 z4 U6 Y' h5 q0 w$ `) m很多人都回学校深造去了- A/ ^4 X/ ?0 U
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- r6 o# ]  D" @( C$ H# n. l$ \
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 M# p# r: q' u5 a) K+ ^0 U
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! q) L- |: K7 A' ~5 K7 w4 m% @are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# W- q$ @7 v. R3 z3 r7 l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( N' C+ J6 ?" a6 lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# h7 K0 ?9 M; O4 h9 x
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. L0 }# z9 V9 c  z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" r5 Q- M3 p. y: s6 t
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 `# Y3 r  g0 }pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 L# F1 s3 B# u" Eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' G" t6 ~% R1 l9 G+ Y4 k2 R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* D7 X9 }3 b( `, I) E1 w% y. v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this! B& B; `2 |- g0 A, ?: k2 F
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- s! i3 o3 M6 L! i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 u; f$ U0 h1 o
30,000 new households will form in the province during- `8 e) w( f7 _# E
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ F/ v* ]) U. a# u, |1 P: J% f, A
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% v  n. o0 v8 z# Y/ b; ~6 j' e6 P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# @% D7 V! e+ a( y* [6 i4 dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; P( d1 ^1 D5 y& v
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 j9 B! P3 F9 F6 e* Y* {' h2 m$ Shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: u0 H, _8 B& N9 [# M, X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 A8 w- f. P; t- ?8 {% D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# }0 I% v) t; g0 S  A3 N9 b5 x# S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' N4 {  {; F: a% f+ aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% T. |/ C6 v) O; l: z  [3 G
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 t) N) n, E" k9 lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 v* d8 [7 O* f6 w0 ~! ]# E/ ]
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 U: k  p  b' Z! z* g2 Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 s& F4 F4 q/ t* b3 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 Y9 j# F/ W8 r* c% {( Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& z+ K% R! x& h- O% k. K. vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% p: X3 p- t7 V$ [4 T7 l" s) @% ^
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" \3 l! W& Z) u7 Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ R0 B/ d' A7 }( g& }( q' P3 B% Xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 [! S! X2 p8 Arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 a( ~- x& m: n9 t6 I9 G7 fThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. Q5 A( F, H5 N* A5 v, A: c8 O& h. @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 N0 w! V2 O' G5 `2 a6 u4 NAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 V/ U2 j2 P5 p+ P  Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 s+ z3 u+ {+ e  j( X
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* P2 V' k, @* Z' n" e' d$ m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) f) W  D" F  Z+ v
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, _- `/ o+ `' P; a
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. a1 D  L! ~7 t! ]3 Z. ?. Y$ ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 `4 y' g4 ~& x7 b+ T: Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 C; }$ ?2 p9 R1 ?+ Z: uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# Z. v2 _% i9 h0 z# Ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
8 y) e7 ^/ g8 Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" N5 P' s1 q/ @* \' P% G$ A6 tAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  S; b9 Q3 o4 X- jleg down over 2009.
7 h7 D0 O7 i5 C  A9 ~/ L/ Y8 {% ^! c# G$ x; z$ M. Y* v2 t
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," `, f5 U+ d/ E9 |1 P" d+ U6 G
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

0 [  y0 I7 W$ T, d1 v
: |1 m2 M0 g. w. e% z8 U4 e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
4 X+ I5 i, l; a+ D! D& ~5 r  m: c翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子' P0 L2 B% s' g5 u& Y

8 I" g  P* [+ Uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments- n& Q( ~) p& ~" u5 {

) @) t. e" A& `  y6 _- q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-15 14:06 , Processed in 0.172657 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表