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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
+ o- _# u" R$ O% `( ^Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its l" y5 w) `3 q h
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; ]- I! k9 M, b* x; O7 lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 [4 T3 |3 S* g! e% @
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 J+ I! L; \: Q" q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# ~2 K9 Z5 Q4 f! ]0 m7 O
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) T) n# L' m4 y& R3 k
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 N1 Y; ]: a4 o. Z) r4 g* Wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: q3 I- k. N% Wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: ]$ J# R% X' U7 o2 l" j9 |! `precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! N' _* M5 o! ]/ |' @0 }; F& _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- J; J6 y+ e4 C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( i. w& q% ?& g4 i4 ^year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' l- e4 T' T' w' Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ \6 N; A }+ T V, I5 i7 C
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 Y7 Y; x# }8 }7 C
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year. u) I$ r8 U& u4 \- W
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! q6 J q4 y4 L3 @$ o; _" O ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ I0 L) w0 a6 N' g
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta" q+ p4 A" q% w: v7 |
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
. A; M% A, F3 Z6 p" y) v* Ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 v- H. \$ g2 j& i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; u: [0 P: p8 J: R3 A! u( z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: ?# y, Y, E3 r+ d9 mclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 o, E3 a! A5 w+ h0 g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 o) b% W: ?( \0 T6 X) @0 d) Y- l
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, y- c# i$ P) z) |# v9 l6 Osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- A' ]3 y3 x( x2 J
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in s X9 i" _: X) q$ L2 }6 J: ~
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* J$ ^$ t5 F- P2 [unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 Q* f5 i# l7 J. [- Vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& P; c; p( \: G+ I6 Y- trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ A4 ?4 A A7 p' presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 i" r" P& v* U& D
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 v4 b/ K) L: c
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 D2 a+ M* l* }- k" G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 w% Y5 |8 k6 sThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 _3 f; K, G: y" X( O/ J1 f
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ k" H: c9 r7 ?2 s6 y: tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
v- D0 ? y8 R. h! O) G' ^( fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 q% H- r# N1 G$ I8 [) a+ Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
! p7 F& {2 S" L5 Fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- n9 v6 |: \' P6 G, C; H: e# x& zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% ?" z! t# s0 f9 c; K, v; l
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- R& L* V! @( z# ~4 o" e& `
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 ?+ a/ t" d5 b/ J. I) S }1 w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
/ e* V* Z) P2 y# [* Y/ f8 Uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 b: n, J# t# H- g& A' N! M
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 y5 H, J7 [" v( Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 w, v$ [& B" j
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' K& U l u) M/ S# s4 |
leg down over 2009.% E, A- x$ q5 @ B) b; v
5 {) h) Q/ P( m/ v
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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