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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 c3 f$ r) B' h- Y; b/ MWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" b1 ]9 x; h) kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 J3 M9 b' l- s3 x$ h# n1 p: X
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' Q+ {5 v8 H$ N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! Y$ }, ~' r6 Q6 k7 h. J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: O/ _+ R2 q9 V- \9 M+ h p$ efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, O& l; i5 u* Q! d. |5 c* O
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 ]5 w! `) o/ d5 e; \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& }7 i' n4 ?/ Npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: a c; c2 V7 N% c7 \7 a6 D
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
m$ Y' i& s9 `) @. I3 J& ]0 f0 Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ y! b$ s" f7 M" F- g! e* [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 y2 @+ L2 ^: b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- \, j$ Y# P" T: zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 [% F# k- Y# o1 H30,000 new households will form in the province during
% ]+ s! i& P" {* [* w, r" L9 [% K2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ O+ t0 R5 y1 J1 fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% G; s- U3 U0 e, |8 F, K5 c3 f6 thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! C/ [+ a: P9 U) d
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: W2 d! [) |+ r9 H! w/ `, F9 zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
# [ G+ K9 r* J# ? Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! C/ S( s5 V# Z0 ^/ {* wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 E6 e+ @4 P& g/ F7 N! [0 Lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 D8 g7 c4 Z N0 j; ~
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" o1 ^- O" H* f
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 ~$ U% R4 [6 c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, N; K! u2 Y6 z9 N' `+ E9 T" C
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ D: p& _- m6 c, e
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- r; I2 I6 f# b7 m, t$ s! Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! h6 W9 }/ K1 j& t* O' Punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 H2 B# U( ]8 f& A
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 t, \! g. `. }% d, t6 L5 r
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
T/ i8 M) m! i, o0 presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ {8 j0 m* M0 e# {% a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( H+ s- ?( M/ t4 R! Uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- g% J+ k0 p" l) ?4 z: @7 }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ a, h8 o" O# y3 h) I) s2 zThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" [% \- q- C! [7 q) I6 Z! x
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* R9 |2 [% |+ nAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( \/ T; w- C$ O! b6 _housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 `1 C. Y9 O% {2 Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 \4 |& W9 v1 I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, {" s- l4 x: ]: ]- n3 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners `- u, ^8 n8 ~8 q! O
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 N* X! i4 J4 O/ e* v2 Z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 ?5 ]1 m3 ]8 `' i$ I1 v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* v7 s) B9 Z+ I: R4 P* t2 v, m) ^
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 o' u. }" S8 |" ], w- X0 c* n9 _& T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, j% e, D3 t( ]! z ]. fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 \" K6 c1 ^1 a* s0 q1 `2 aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%7 O3 ^& C5 q( V4 g: G& }" {' y: U3 T4 ^
leg down over 2009.
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9 Y7 G! e% |$ x0 B7 G. G$ C4 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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