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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta8 k% D) A9 t" X9 C. U
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 m6 m$ E2 N& W& {8 m0 Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 t, C( ?6 O" o% {5 V' j7 Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
9 }9 A- M- d6 ~$ o. X- i1 {' W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 b5 C% c) R- |( _0 R, E$ g
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ e9 k7 g2 g- Q" _7 y6 Gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( _; g4 f1 Y- Z! U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# H$ c+ n; ^: b8 y+ y" j0 A4 y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. D! @( N3 d# \) d) ~; l4 G6 \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 W" W! ^' O& ~/ [; h& Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 N9 f, D, L+ J+ e( c8 K* X8 h/ R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; r( K7 h3 M1 V$ O2 k" Y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% F ^4 Y; T4 Y6 wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 }, j) J/ Y9 _$ e& ^
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around g/ f$ U4 x8 Q0 l0 @9 G6 m5 I
30,000 new households will form in the province during; W/ S! P) y( f+ B
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& o6 m" D6 c- U4 K7 ~8 @Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ w$ P4 X9 C' S: n, Z3 I
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. F- k5 _7 U% I- k
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- X" w' t, V( |! s" r Hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. ^" f* q5 m e5 i+ ^# b+ y! x3 _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( k9 I( l" ?3 ~9 `during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 u- T/ T9 o$ K8 O+ L9 L
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) O" Q! L# t' d0 F( X' N8 _clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- m/ |/ D6 c, U' s8 E+ Z. w
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 x6 g. k k" G; \ E# | J
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ _7 J" y5 E5 L" u9 a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 @' f5 q+ W: H6 |, a, F5 A; f+ V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* y- u( c7 m' h1 u( ~1 F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 D" G9 B0 s, a/ I
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( a/ t2 w2 K/ J1 f. ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 k! @+ E; o! W- E% ]0 `
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, D. h4 A. K! a% Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& s- S0 j! s9 S3 l, p# O- i
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 o3 n9 n" d! X. g K. Iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) h3 Q+ D/ j4 h) i0 ]$ i% s
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 k j. W b' E" O; D, c7 F
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- G. `' O3 b1 ~boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 d: O& Y" t. I0 F
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ Z" O2 } N! ~2 {+ R# r: C; C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: b) y0 ~ j! V% R3 ]. E$ N& E$ d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
* ~; |, d* M9 j. g& N+ @1 nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: y7 ~& L9 T6 p! z, f) athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 f1 G3 c+ x6 @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 D7 h3 C- c' Z0 s( I9 B2 IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 E5 S( W- R" ]: O6 ? U/ Z8 ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. k; h$ w$ i* r9 Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. B' z9 ~% \9 G: {) chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ v) k, P% i; _$ _9 `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, W+ ^9 v) H9 \' @4 U
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" n! r; e6 y& aleg down over 2009.
/ q& l; e# Q O; J/ L8 @; ^" ^+ y3 d6 a, V/ `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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