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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- L2 x9 Y! ]. \1 m4 ^6 x3 p7 P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, G/ B' C7 v" T% E
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ {6 C" B; @2 q d. mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# F$ _; A- Y V: }# M; e
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ |$ f; Q# F$ E: }formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 O1 a9 B' o. Z& C3 s
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 U5 P3 @! ]! @0 M w, w) @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 [8 z( K1 N5 F( a6 I( m$ y1 pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous, d7 ^" F/ m0 J3 W2 i- Q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; B8 r# g+ ?3 _- j+ G2 sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* L: b4 M6 ?" m; o% [; U( \
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ |8 n% ^# o& u& _# uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 T# a1 ?: C' w) H7 x0 L6 D
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 [& C. V, T3 k5 z3 K# V+ t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 a& D6 l* _* g, v30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ M, h( H9 ^2 A. x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 s( B4 M! T$ V# {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 Y' _8 B0 \( g, E' f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 i. V% i1 ?8 u" P. Q. S2 F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; t$ [, P' _( i* f/ o2 ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ F0 B% H7 x8 ^0 F( j. ?* c, fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ T) \7 w5 B3 N* C; q( Cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 b0 C- l8 J6 t- f& u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- o. T q6 @7 W* r+ g6 H0 S3 cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; l& l9 X. ]3 {" \( ~( L, N5 Lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ {& A$ ^( X5 z2 o( f3 h1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# `& f8 l b. D; a" M* ]7 Gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" G) G' V; `2 a/ w8 Q9 B9 s
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ A# P) S9 f+ k7 `, _
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# Q; G" T1 N" T {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ q# I- m& ~) `# b5 u: ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 e) U# t+ P0 l# Q# b" M- {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 z5 a/ j! C" c( fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 h: }4 }! n( K1 \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ q" @( k" a1 S3 ?8 p& H5 Oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 a' \( ?4 z7 @1 z+ u; H$ N% e2 i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% Z5 w3 s/ t9 T& ^) B8 H- \
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 o$ C' w2 k# b8 |; `6 o' ?boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% c' _# }4 A6 y' {$ v/ j
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 i+ \% @( P$ O: s. Z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% R& }/ m* i/ T0 [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 v7 \8 q2 A* \8 T4 Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
Z1 D- h0 f6 q g( x \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 X0 V6 a& h( Z/ b' Q% Q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- \# ^- g/ I8 n7 Z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, e, C; z* j$ p, y9 \3 O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 c2 m/ t& H0 H6 B) j" G9 jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% ~7 l! j, c9 f) M8 M$ u y% {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) [8 Y# P& _6 w) d' c$ M- @
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 Q m& I4 ?# r9 d" HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 j! F+ Z; V. V0 z; m4 Z
leg down over 2009.9 C" {3 S3 h' e5 Y( |- l3 X- c# V
2 E& o) x0 k9 l$ [" N$ D8 V
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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