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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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0 I$ t; }+ i  ~2 ETD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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# V- j; o" a- E( c6 d4 I& d; ^"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 7 \% q9 [" b3 d9 c
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# M0 D  ]: Q* f

3 |$ r( e5 P0 G5 C+ o; ~TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( H* a/ M" e7 t) m: {2 m4 i
+ N5 `) x  A$ m  o! A6 q& G
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: a- F0 Z" |+ N# G& D3 z* H( W3 h
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 g" N% Z) [- X; ~4 \
9 m) Z" k( f: ]/ W4 `1 Y
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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4 Z# o5 w. }( F) _TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。3 E  p2 Z% ]/ Z/ `6 x: z: o  I
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。# O, A: r+ ]. J! P% a1 x
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- |2 N7 D# W, Z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 K8 j7 ^* n3 G5 c! I# ~很多人都回学校深造去了3 Y5 K3 b: V4 y5 K0 K
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( K! `) U' a5 v$ f
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* Z+ t; Q  O5 d+ W* jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 e2 z0 a. R/ e( sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ l6 ?0 l" Q) Q/ q) f# f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; j- W: o  D% W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 D0 E/ F) e2 y( O* G7 N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- F7 F: c; B, D. Q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 h2 V- h* T2 d8 T
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ U: c4 Z, D; ]+ U) S- ], \6 [pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 W8 f2 l9 U2 b$ `- cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, T& A4 B* K' _# wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% e* V$ j! `( j3 }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. H/ }& }) z: X4 q  s. J
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 p$ k7 q, A- F- ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 D) D# T1 J/ b# g4 d: r30,000 new households will form in the province during3 D7 O# y, M& }
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 |$ F& U7 _* V" R% iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ t8 G5 |, t: K1 ^# }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* Y1 L4 G, B, w! C7 Kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 O6 h. j: _: l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 K+ ?' ^3 Z1 t7 P# a1 @households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 s" k$ v& ]+ m" u1 A$ O; C( G
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. s" F% c1 s; P% g- m4 J+ Q4 |* [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 z/ |1 o+ q7 Y7 W. h$ }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; p( F7 E; R' ~+ A0 r
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( N" H+ \- F( V& h5 |: l1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 x( f" w' l$ l' Zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: A7 \; n) Z' D9 t2 S6 @8 N' v9 V) Y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: a) ]$ p; F; Q  U7 Ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# @* v0 {, s" N; ]
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 Q6 L1 H  |. H/ x
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ S/ Y% E5 V4 m  _0 \% \0 crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' t! t) o) `% n7 C4 Z/ Uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, g3 G$ Z$ m' G& u8 o- o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% d/ x& T- i9 Q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 W& T; h- _6 u# P) C' h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
- q! T1 @5 U! }- P- b" g* _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ r! W7 Y3 f6 t3 h: @  a( Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.  {$ K% k" T0 l% Z/ _! D* E( \; R6 T6 V
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 U- {9 W, [9 S) Rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
  P2 C- C; q* f7 Jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale  x3 w5 ^; x% R1 R% A+ R3 c$ u
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# J0 C  p4 q" r4 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 _2 w" L& m  Q5 W" Q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- d& h( a& v* ]' M6 t
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ v  {$ N9 U+ d& e( E! Aresale price in February is evidence that past prices# d& K3 W7 p1 K! F5 E2 @& F' Z, W
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- _+ C# S$ Q- J* b, F! U! P0 Phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 M5 c' O1 m/ H9 r: P, O
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) {' _; p% y# {, hAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, V, J" Y- I7 e3 J
leg down over 2009.
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) _3 `4 P0 F$ }- {4 e! c# b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ m+ T1 w7 ^  J6 ?8 U8 ^! [
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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7 ~& N$ z* s" W6 L! P: f  L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. & H- N. B8 D/ V0 e# |& K
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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) M  r( ^9 K9 Q- ^http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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