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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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) g2 }( o# y  p; R0 Z9 @TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
. K1 I' U/ Y' U: @& U* X$ `2 }. h0 d2 v! T2 z8 T# t1 T
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 4 M6 I+ t1 x$ F5 a

7 l& O* i: F( ]/ d2 ^"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 P" Y' r+ @+ Y  j
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 o- O& V: u: K! L2 Q. c
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.6 u5 r% B# n. k2 R& b# m
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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, P- w- |3 [2 j# ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 e. h$ E: l# ]* Q. g( Q, [

2 y/ ]* e( M/ s! T. ~% d[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。" Z2 M1 X% v, c; H
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( i8 u9 ]3 I* f$ M
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
/ `0 k# m$ E# h; n' u跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; {0 M( T/ u6 d8 ]  c很多人都回学校深造去了  `6 n5 }( C; `( [  P
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
+ X! i* T( T& A& uWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 Y" c% N2 c+ A0 j. E* N2 zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 {. h: l# O" Y3 w( m6 z3 m! Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' ]1 o! x3 ^$ r) C3 V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; {3 F8 {# l7 F; ]9 c) t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 H1 Y$ J! V( bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,  T7 ]9 B1 o, X* ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  x, e$ x- T0 Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, u. B/ c6 f! i/ s" H6 xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 r. D1 ~) I' A+ z* j' i, O, u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! b) ?! s( E% _, G- k, w$ [9 ^to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: c- O, Q! e" ?7 [; U" K+ g; cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* K! Y# A9 k; \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; @4 T+ E8 u; _; P( }6 J4 Yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# h1 H1 G- a) `( X8 d/ A
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* N; u4 `* z; D* q) j# C2 g1 U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& {+ X5 c% P) j0 s# c5 w% _8 ]
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 w! d0 X4 K- S$ b. Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 ?* d& ^. J" }8 B4 A7 u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 ^  Y) e- f. E) L
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ b, E6 M' c: L" O# nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; o0 Y9 Y2 k0 ?4 jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 Z2 B  G3 z# m+ ^
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- Y* a+ \1 q, K+ C( E) c/ U. f, Fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 L- P- @" `! p8 c6 B) ?( @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  T+ W5 ?3 J6 o4 C  R, q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. H' R$ E4 c9 jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 y7 M; q, ]' p/ e9 z6 Q3 l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 E, G) {$ I7 |! v+ z  _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ `* E2 W3 I. n2 s
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 z1 I, _& Y; @
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 ^* b8 ?6 M6 [! u$ }recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& P3 I3 r* K, Z' U0 M2 x. H& Hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' p% L2 t! R$ Q7 {0 x( q/ B9 s% Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* o9 N& w! Z3 @4 ?/ y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: _+ J( u8 H0 a, U
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
) N$ ?) T" ]9 e1 R/ d! T- o+ P, MThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ W9 P9 }8 _- {2 r- F7 t* @- dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 |; \0 p( Z6 s0 `* @# @
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 ~  o1 _% I- {3 c7 shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 [: U: l& z" d1 T+ e8 K2 Y1 Jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 n' Y( e4 x9 ]! f/ ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even  _2 G, ~& {4 B' b8 l
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- n6 Y6 C. V7 ^. g0 u. j  `: ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., h& M) [+ I& r" y4 A+ {
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; Y8 ?5 ^* f- u4 D
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% W1 F" r/ g5 c7 f- @) n3 \" uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  X, T* ^! Z5 \# n5 ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 V6 i9 I* O* V; \7 w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! D3 ~- ^2 F2 J& z* M( Q: T3 S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ N0 f5 X; w% ?$ Qleg down over 2009./ W8 _5 m5 L7 O& J* L' U5 H# ^

+ {; l/ U8 l/ L, `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( |, u3 e9 K" ~; L1 R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 ^/ b$ N  t/ V: ]$ o翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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% Y+ Y9 W, W2 ]0 i1 s  `6 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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