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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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0 h: R2 G- M2 l- jTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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0 Y2 _, @5 Q, a  m% i5 B" j9 hThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 7 e, v3 g3 c( V" q3 n' t
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.0 O3 y: d; A  ]! g; x

- a! {& L  g( u5 q! ATD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 j/ l) ^$ ?+ P5 g4 V( q
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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; P3 X+ W" t  ]$ J  y# N' ?Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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1 n, r3 A: m$ d( ]; g2 vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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+ Q# d' S4 D  N( i* d9 MTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,( `7 y% s" `* T& N- V- u9 y

9 x, l5 @( A% G& M" Q[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。) l  c5 o  w+ y. S: D5 W% n( i
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
% |9 ]+ S% Y" l6 `3 A: ^2 b3 _2 D跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

) b3 R+ h# D/ |% B很多人都回学校深造去了
3 s, @7 |" I9 R) Y/ a  A* w1 X' [嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" \* _7 Z7 }2 O6 U; t1 _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 C) r6 Z# D% v8 l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
: d- {; b* f# |2 hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ W; q) Q4 v! M: P, g( {2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. y6 O; a6 L8 J. V" G5 Uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 o% w* L# C/ N" ~) Q' Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 z. v. r8 S& n# l1 Y- }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; U# Q; s+ r; _
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* z; Y& z9 L5 x. r1 d8 |8 G
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 q( P: z" k6 A6 o, u4 P' C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 Q4 k/ v3 z8 ^- \  lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ b2 T  v( S" J7 n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. E# C* o" K4 @" z; q# a4 iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 v- U( Z- n! o4 c7 J) D  W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: E" c2 @: D1 Y1 r
30,000 new households will form in the province during
# [  D. {( q* x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; K4 d8 ?0 G" q. w+ d# l" r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! @0 N( K% D, D! F2 o  C3 i8 o& N: nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( S- k7 \& a; q0 U
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ E' I8 C0 B1 X
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& F) f6 [# }! c/ p8 n) Y3 C$ y* T
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 `8 u% u; F; s
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 F5 w* C$ q% O" t7 `sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 q! _: u% D  r* m& x7 kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" }2 ?: l+ e% }! [3 c3 g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* B% r* F8 |' b# h2 c3 G/ u0 \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ f# i. G' W% K# g1 Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- X9 O- ?% F/ N, `2 r
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 s, X& \* B$ h" y. L3 y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, t  X) p2 ?  _8 g# _9 c* Hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 L8 y( I. H4 x; v: l  V* K$ \: n
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  b: U0 X: o- s. N  g" Jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 ^- f/ e, i! x) ]$ G+ R
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' M; H% Q* K, I7 F" u  E5 Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. o2 I3 [8 T1 t3 N  n; K( d. \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, ?- x) `4 O9 j2 crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 G$ d; ]0 d" o7 N3 I+ C
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 ~* M: u' X. ]) s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: S* ^" x, d1 q# [# g& {) u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 g+ D' R+ W( Z& J/ ?% `, x2 f; ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ A% p* M5 ~: R* c3 s3 T% P& \relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! M7 E7 n9 G3 j* o9 @# w- Y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, H: J( n/ k; e/ C& h8 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" a$ M! V* R! E3 y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! x( E5 l% }6 ?- c6 ?
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 c+ M5 h. S% L& K
resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 K* U  i/ D2 U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. N/ M- g" a- H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 k) P3 H3 }- y8 N* Q& k
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) X' y3 X; M# z3 UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, g# {+ |* e- s: h) T+ T
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) h6 `9 \* w* M% ^/ {. k3 iAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( W6 D. r- E# b. a* Y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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