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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta! e# X2 `# W! \6 K' T: f( P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 }+ s. U/ N( z0 [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
# f7 o: k3 Y) e0 R2 u& uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 ]6 a4 o# K; i/ j/ o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% f% [1 U: ^/ R# u" A
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 ]- H3 u+ M% @4 |+ Y! l3 Ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% r% o( Q+ U; X& f% j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! s& {' f" b+ _/ t0 V+ U7 O6 H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 ^0 ]9 b7 s6 n& V2 d, b0 dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 V8 W z' a5 }- T4 p, Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. D4 d: e6 G' ^- {to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, K4 a8 J3 S2 F& F0 \$ vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: T8 R0 U |' ~7 @9 ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 b% ~* G( _8 V* c' ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ S8 |' r5 P2 p2 h9 d, f( T* r8 a30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 }) _' m2 R; \5 t2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. u; p$ o2 C/ t/ i" _4 d! f$ C# l# `
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* O: e- l; w+ whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%4 I1 W: u' A9 |; y; d
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, T' n% K t* A6 j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ N' E2 K: Q. o& O3 Y: G
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. ~* y# U9 h" yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# k0 ~! G- O* B( p
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% z3 |/ T' }# uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* @8 F5 W4 u% l/ i$ H+ D7 Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: J' g T1 G* ^' K# M- t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& b2 c L( Q/ b$ [- msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; q! N- L7 ]+ o9 a/ m* R3 X/ R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ f3 U+ ?5 g: G; o* \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 C; a! H# ?, X7 k$ E, {. Uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
* Y$ y/ J, ^3 G% Y {( D$ ounsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest n s! p6 h% U7 y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) f, P' p1 H( X& Gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ c1 U d G4 b T, q- \! ?# Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# p- I* r2 [; z: k" X3 Iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ ?9 G8 |* l1 Y! Z9 e8 e7 k
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 P# @$ l9 Q' W2 S1 F/ r1 o( |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; Y1 O. Z8 L' z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ A7 ^( O# U+ |7 o4 oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ w4 ^. A/ Q+ x; q( {0 ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ V4 q' V j+ O+ H" W3 A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ P' f5 D3 r& S; s8 {prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# J1 V/ z; @0 y8 q1 @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 ~2 _( x" S3 ~- D6 O- ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 m9 ]2 R; ?7 l, R) F
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: N0 T. D7 ], h7 d
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' L6 e3 G( J0 c# R+ L8 [$ o9 c
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' @. a3 W* L' |! E& }' mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- r% M" W+ I7 Udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. g% ]$ n$ d, n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 _/ c4 y4 q: ^( V" R1 W7 z' Gleg down over 2009.% J1 k+ X: C. J* M
$ {; P+ K' l, ~ p; ^, M7 z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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