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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta' r2 R# |7 e8 b: v' b
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. \/ b8 H* [1 w. N
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 |" L2 x& s# J' B9 e# g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) L( l% y1 `. W6 C1 ~; p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& A; S3 X' c( eformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided% b/ {. f' ?5 G" p1 t h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 }+ O- J; Z. A* ?$ athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( j0 w* R0 `. b! o* x
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 {8 X' i5 {0 f# B H
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 H- m; k+ e9 X9 `8 J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 R( G5 B9 ]0 L# zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. `& A% H; H1 I& j" Y0 J
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. K" Y. i* e# I( U3 f/ j$ w
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* K* \4 z, X1 [
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around ^! ?# a. j- g4 T; d+ I4 q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 w5 @1 o/ ?( k* F2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. x) ~: \/ Y* S2 S4 w3 ^+ @# K; REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& g K/ T( H. J: r% H
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%9 q# g. v* N: {2 L/ n3 ]" l0 w( t" J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- }) d" c x, s/ ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 \ I, R9 H f/ A5 H$ v5 O3 v3 m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) P7 H8 m) N3 ?. R6 X' Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 X" o; G( n r4 y8 ~sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ \1 m6 o1 U; v4 h1 h- cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 q3 @8 g9 d' I8 Z3 b: \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 x- Z |4 Q4 E9 I9 U1 p
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& ]9 h$ m2 Q5 V/ a: A) ?5 zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 j$ I. S2 x$ e6 p" y9 c
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in. x3 O/ h2 P0 H" o" Q- K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ [; r& u7 I0 @' zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 [6 o" W# I1 O5 z4 M: U7 y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; {- [% J4 h7 s# l9 n8 k/ B
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 k, J3 Y, [- w! O5 W9 Aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 H) p& f/ t5 Q* Z; D( g' omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
u: T( y' ]$ M$ U+ F2 u' I& F" g( kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled" m8 x, D& L1 H& Y0 C, a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 \2 E8 M6 @% G. r4 D0 f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 j7 M: f' P( @* n# yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 m* J0 O; Y6 C8 U: d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ c) L0 s" [4 h8 J* khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- \: v8 S7 S# {! U3 X
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 \( z2 Y) w: M( ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 B% W0 e. F' C3 f/ U2 D6 p2 }0 g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 l1 y' c# x; ?on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( ^, ` g, w: W9 t9 t- jThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( {- @, @: d# h
resale price in February is evidence that past prices1 A& ], o; m5 T5 M3 n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 a! m, _! t7 v7 X: i( \$ K
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, y: Z3 Q1 @' D6 O' w; l) x7 ?+ K: B) p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) P+ D2 r- K% f1 zAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: a1 @5 j9 M: f* G4 g# kleg down over 2009.
3 y' G; F$ R n# w( h, |/ @9 Q9 f( ?4 w$ h1 N
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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