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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" d- k. \3 p* }! N3 A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 J; x5 O: \' ^5 H) g# dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! ^: m$ W1 o! \5 i# n* @1 }are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ O3 |, l, U. o( v
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 K( u2 k; J# u% c9 x2 N3 _% C
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ i3 d% ?+ h8 j: qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 B) y0 I* Q# N! w" {the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& ?, a0 g: o- }- a" @0 Bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( \# O+ L p2 ?$ ^5 q: [ Hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 n0 U" p" V- _' u, i2 B% \- b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; z/ E$ S; S$ X3 d* c3 _
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
' u$ ~2 i3 }0 P$ Lprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! ]8 A' }+ O9 \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: x: _4 M! `; f+ j, J% u6 T) zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. T7 ~6 E3 ~0 [* z F5 I9 ^$ H: a6 J30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 F2 o5 W z6 q! e4 C& n E, N+ X |2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.' ]" ?6 u; K* Z2 R
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* I, B% I8 }9 f* S! A! ~' J' N+ Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 R$ d, v7 v/ @1 l7 @: s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- T. X* _1 o6 }$ W. ahas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- w# x3 E2 r! W5 [4 F5 m6 g
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, c3 Q9 p: N% J) v: Q' ^6 q- b8 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( j) h" d z: j4 Z9 ]* H8 rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" Z1 U) L; M. M6 H. Z' ^3 {clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" b L# O7 H" z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( I. x. {6 j! f% E% h! N3 r: ]3 [6 ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ |( {+ w4 `3 q% _+ f' Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ ]# R. ]; |! Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- Z3 J" d2 F& X, o$ Y" \0 Otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ z n% X, E2 T2 P$ m3 w! K# C, Junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" U8 M) G1 H5 y+ e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
0 G' S) N- M( B; c- {1 X) @recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ E+ ]8 z: Y) |: [9 X: Nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, k$ x7 s j y- I7 |* E emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 n$ c& ?. l( J2 K9 P% hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' P, z' l! ^% T$ h: ^) Y# Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 c+ S" f; J5 dThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 A4 x" I0 a; C1 @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. W$ Y2 ]: w* r, I& {! u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan# S$ ?" Q3 N1 ]- e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 _+ }/ R0 P1 v! M: Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) \9 D' H) {. |$ D5 S2 y0 v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! G0 |. W8 ?7 z& U1 ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! O1 |+ v/ h1 ^% w0 r' i
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% B9 S( e. u. H; A' G+ {3 ]' {The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' |+ N K4 j; X) r* A1 hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
8 q0 }4 J! P, D3 t" A; texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) @4 s6 T6 U/ ]+ X+ T
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% ?3 Z% F# c( L( S8 T! Ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& C& q" Q; U/ x# AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 x. {% H4 ^3 w- x0 p5 Lleg down over 2009.
& l6 ^6 ?9 b/ Y L$ p9 I- `# c5 A3 e: y* O! N) D. P, e% R
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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