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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" A6 s1 ]( H4 E& y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 s4 m+ l, a/ l2 Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. D! y, c1 o1 Y- U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' F2 p- C& c; \! a N
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ N/ F# I% M, z" r" F. R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 w+ R+ s7 y+ M9 q% k# V+ Y9 b$ o
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 n% M; x, _! y8 _0 cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ w! ]* E( x, V4 S6 o! V
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- T! \& T# i; E; @8 ^" Fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 ^7 s$ }; ?0 v
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ S7 G. \( L; ]/ jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ v* ^. W# a# G. |( P9 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ I' C* S( g. y+ m# G; l) }( @
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) ]0 V7 n. I" \/ i" v7 S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 L W. r, k, Q% Y' U' Y6 d# J7 M
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, r1 g, A4 u9 n( }+ T2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 E8 e- F& Q% T" |* d
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s ` v# n. Q: d. i( S* v# U6 J& z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# g$ i/ ^% p* P# F3 _
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: X7 Y. h4 x+ V. b/ u6 t
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! a4 S6 ] ?+ e% ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
& d0 d0 b8 D, g- u6 b1 hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 p2 E4 P7 S3 t4 ^
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# u( X9 F6 f2 V& \3 U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& D- E$ k4 }% a$ P5 h5 y0 ^4 _excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 \2 i3 J7 q9 y3 _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 j8 `' U. ?: C4 b) h2 Q8 \4 Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 Y0 Y. C' }) y, K) @3 abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 x/ z( \0 R! X' v% c
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 j) P) N0 D3 z* K2 {
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 _+ g3 w* [4 P0 A1 ?( v: gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% x* p* ~8 T8 u4 J7 @8 g
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 P& ?, O$ T; P# _
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 c& i* H( i) T& E" e" O) Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( M: a& d' G" b5 ~/ Lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* e$ ` K5 R$ i3 l6 _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 S9 o+ `5 `) V' U6 W8 P& M8 O' o' zThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 ?+ y9 d2 @) R4 gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ q) |) K. s; e3 A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" | G6 L. l; zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" W- ~3 M u- f g ]9 J2 d$ z2 crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 S" G& L5 I& ]/ [! G- kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 k! U( W- ~1 } l. sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 C @# f# ~, [/ B9 n [ ^' W0 ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& v- N( ^0 E- {% t! gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 G8 m% b( A! s5 Y! Z. W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ g: | h* S2 i: Z8 M Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, F/ A% v/ \7 K Ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
d: |) ^! j( j5 B% Ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ l e( F/ {3 z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( p, K) G5 S' Q2 x+ Vleg down over 2009.4 @7 Q/ B! T7 B7 d3 |# g
% i8 c4 R; r% e8 f. s) i
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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