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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.$ o1 Z& k/ B3 G; @  y
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." R. y" P7 v* n5 ~  m4 s, I2 T" ~

  `1 M' h4 ^; I3 X9 cTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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* O9 J1 }" F) Q1 _) t2 D: b  U9 @, h" S"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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$ w( z% J7 M- `TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.2 C+ U9 ?, _" G& `. G' S

6 W- Q% [1 K, N: xMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. / E2 b3 h" ^1 _. p
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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6 p9 O; Y3 r: l2 n. K% v' ~% KTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 c3 K, o- Y* `& l& a' \0 R; p

: C* O+ K- U: X: C- o6 B5 _[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。/ _- t$ n; O& @& A: j1 d) t" {
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
) L8 k. N7 d( t! f5 r' y3 _跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了$ H# q8 L: c& ^; A3 X  b; H: ]# I! }
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
: F8 }* ~6 `+ B  s' F8 E' J5 N% N+ qWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ F9 i* {2 j& d. K: Z2 Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 h) E" ~# T7 q6 M" dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 y6 V, S7 r3 T1 ~' y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ ]4 R9 W! M3 M1 ]6 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; O% i* [/ P& Q" Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: T: }# O1 ]7 H) x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 W$ k# Q, V+ J. f" Y. Wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ p7 O( I7 ]4 X- @9 \0 Apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) |  ]" @$ [) Z0 ?" X2 F3 p" D
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; \& g) I3 a. Z5 l7 r6 sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ z  `) T/ J3 r8 b& aprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ g% K0 x9 {4 ?8 L  x
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ ]7 a$ V- s  t* S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around% L& B( o/ y) M" r
30,000 new households will form in the province during0 P% q$ u( F4 x4 N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 }1 f! F" P* {0 ?6 KEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! u% l0 p, X! b, zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' ?9 j6 C: ?$ B3 n- ~+ o; X! vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- X  \; V7 ~, h# b! h4 `  g5 \has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ h5 L4 g  m( B
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
  k. m2 e2 D2 Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ Y( P2 D1 e& r- Y$ |+ ?  dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" U1 ]0 G# y# H4 q7 S  w0 e1 Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& z! |# _7 n1 I6 j$ ]
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 D) p6 w' Y6 T6 b( v9 j1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 G( K+ X% n* K; E% @, M5 hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 _, s( t, H& mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 _+ E8 m/ A) O4 Z6 n# X; c( Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( G/ H1 H4 t! F+ [6 kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; e6 A: k; }" d2 `: q2 kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
0 h8 s$ X5 \% ^1 [% Q( w- Hrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ v& h# F( ^( Z* r2 ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, L# S# u, z; n9 N
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 `. N' o- m; R& u/ M3 A, Hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled7 [& I* I  L  ?4 o0 T9 M) j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! l* m9 m# M% T7 e* O7 K. I! uThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: T3 `- O; O8 e8 {1 b8 |' H0 {& qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 ~0 n7 H, f5 ~$ P/ o! t  q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 i- b1 i( X7 M( P( x* Dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- ]1 |1 a; t; C6 Erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 z: G, E# u0 |1 @/ oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 W: l. s6 w0 i, }9 I8 Kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: c8 i  R3 y2 \) I% V9 Y" s4 m
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 N) x, F4 s6 i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 b/ @% {9 S+ zresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 h/ @, w# n: h' v5 `4 N; e
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ d" Y: P+ ]3 j( I0 N
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
  p9 q* ~/ y& E& l" }deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) g. |* d9 S5 T0 r* _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 ^! n7 ?3 L# e; F+ D8 `2 v4 {leg down over 2009.$ b5 S( Y! Y% ]9 V2 U2 J) e
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 Q9 j. O3 N/ E( p) J% c% n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 n% N: H4 u; d$ o! \5 j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ k6 c' r- m# Q3 B2 F* e
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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6 I" r" A9 j/ q+ [http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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