 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 p% \) q' Q: _4 L( O1 ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ ]: O( f. X/ G9 gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, r) R2 D, v. {5 T! o+ `are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- R: ~, i9 ]& l3 n
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) T5 f3 ]( i9 J0 a" {
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 }1 S) D0 A0 c( E# D( Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,1 \1 G( r# z7 ?4 ?- h& }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" j1 i- A8 i% t. r& b! Q. {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
) N2 {$ d( j! r- ]pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed q* A% w4 T J0 r5 E l/ F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined9 x9 v. j2 `; M5 X0 G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 }9 r3 s# i7 J% H2 yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
n) ~' t/ P& h8 V8 w: @0 Hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; w4 t4 R* x6 t: q d
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ \* c4 e4 j4 Q& v0 _' B( K6 |
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( {( N7 w3 H# [" t4 Q. K$ i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ j# [6 a1 x: w
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s. r& }( A& I( I" }; x1 N
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ c- y$ O8 U) R: A: t" N& J3 c
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ r/ m3 y+ r- Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ ~$ @# b/ q' x3 T# U& [: |households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; \. U- _2 G) r4 R1 @7 s3 h' rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ K4 U' D( x& usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' F+ a3 I. a, t7 e& w) l5 F; L
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 N+ ?! g6 _# E+ S% ]$ U; ?2 mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 R8 Y7 q; k0 s8 v1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ b' U t7 q1 s! k+ U) ~$ Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 ^; @& P# ^9 f+ L; @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, A5 V. c" J8 s$ T+ z1 D( z z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: `( h7 t& Q0 g+ b: U/ {' iunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
, p2 p" A: ^4 Vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
0 B `: b' a0 orecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. n9 x' I/ ^9 k' k8 bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* J A* C. q& bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" X4 m" U- U0 d0 G% d6 L" i9 bof new singles, and, with demand having cooled0 l, i, y- @ l1 j% B' n' p
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 S5 f& V$ o9 D( F7 I$ [9 dThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" `1 I& E6 p: e: ^- _% i
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ S7 |9 Z; d3 E1 ]' u5 D
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
w, Q# z s( e' c! hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 s$ [: I' t$ k' \: [" L
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 H" l& f( Y3 s+ U; d. U9 A% F2 w
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% A& ^) Y8 t# {4 x5 ^! bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 s* T3 ]$ F8 q* D1 D5 Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: s9 J! }' V- q/ K: B1 r% E) AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ v4 i+ k$ n( b% G( O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! V5 J" a: a2 H& `+ J* U0 r8 _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ y" f! ?9 p* u8 @# K. ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! p+ r6 Z, R. p/ l' Y" U8 l0 `1 mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* z0 Q! m: s0 L/ C5 u7 J: n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% u$ Z, a4 U8 v9 G
leg down over 2009.1 N& F/ E6 ~8 v. k- v4 o+ M
0 l$ H& A2 u/ P. g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|