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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) E( {) D# ?. P3 g( |
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 N) l7 j% l! M8 w+ h7 @ qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) A" M4 K% S6 b% ~# Z6 u- i+ iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 G" d' |( s3 x4 l7 G( D2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 q ]( B& i& {# j0 Sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( L6 S: Y& G0 L# bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, Y, f* A4 @' B* l G5 t/ K" b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* m+ H8 Q0 a9 O- V% @1 w, m
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ }' |% s9 e$ b
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 h+ v& X# _9 w4 r& a( j' |& A: Aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ S* c, a: z+ ^' L" A6 {- O* T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& `9 E1 v& ?) \- [$ ^, F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 K7 J! }( r7 n4 {) A% f/ U5 yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 U! h' e1 U5 w3 x6 Z' whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
* d# J+ ?% a8 z1 O a30,000 new households will form in the province during) J! H2 Y, o* L& |* A
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; Q! U6 X- a# p5 b/ m3 |- v
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 h9 [, Q& V3 R/ W6 l7 J4 Ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# O8 i- H4 S; a; P2 u! a1 w8 ?
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- t Q# w$ e/ ~4 l1 u
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
8 n: i: |" k% j: c" r/ s& b. Yhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 t& @3 g4 }6 U) l: B. I
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 Q# l; Y: v3 k1 d; t
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- G9 @8 e; M( m8 _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 s8 E U$ E2 p. i! R5 K0 t: w0 rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. ~6 B2 {" P1 ~9 l9 u" s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 F; b0 v+ U1 vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive% Y1 ]/ O; H! H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ Z. U0 ?9 M2 g8 g# {! W
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 w: ]4 E/ i2 y X# v; B3 T( b, kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 k: g, J" u' v: ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( B6 C3 I! J. F/ \& S# Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; x* i( h9 r( C* q8 y/ Presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: R3 I9 \7 e% I" Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 n8 e4 B* _8 x: f9 _/ {
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 N4 O7 a" d& ^+ s- T7 L, D6 D
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' |2 y, i) k# |- I, ^0 RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! N8 W) K9 n$ e7 Gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 S8 j" f& R# D; [- w$ {
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan# L7 ~' l' a# x; @
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 V3 U) c# y5 v# g s
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 A0 R5 K: [" d# h/ t
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: S' t# a$ ]0 W0 h, Q# Q e7 X6 r) T e ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# U. U3 F j+ O$ D
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" j' |- o. L3 x9 e# f1 |The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) j' f J! i; L+ A8 G& ^
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
% S. D, x4 }, u, ]7 D! S* K& hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ l w4 J7 m3 G( I Ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
a: T$ D5 O; t2 Q7 |) F+ T8 f3 sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 X Y4 w0 F" k% n& M) l: CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 D* u, D6 m% `$ Dleg down over 2009., I; d0 t" \* j9 X* F+ G6 Q& T% p
+ c% Y& Z5 N, D/ P6 A" e' L( S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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