埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1865|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.& ]! E6 v  Q6 z4 f

2 _8 ^! \8 ]6 X+ UTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + q8 o4 w+ O4 }
+ Q! v& C8 i, ~  u( M
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
" M0 J6 v- \1 n8 a
) g, n" X8 p& n& L) \"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
/ E9 Z. _( F: W3 e6 _& Q6 J- O0 U' q7 ]; `1 ?8 V# k9 b
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
8 [5 C( q( @- E. ^* n5 g
5 d- L/ e# j( GTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
( }  m, h# e: M# l; z9 M. l# G) e: f+ K
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
$ R) g' j. \/ B8 `; L
' [+ ]4 F8 r, ^! W* qTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
6 D7 k& P# V# i0 F! \4 ^0 B! m; M
$ \% E- O' {0 v+ g4 BMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. . M8 l4 |# U8 \8 n% {

) k: T, I: g- |2 Shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

. l2 u- O. u( C7 V! _6 X9 J/ {+ p  @* n# E" V  r
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,' U$ F7 P& m8 [  W0 X
! |! M  A# ]8 s* m% E
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 Q6 L4 J5 _6 Q  ]& j0 J 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
' R- [& _5 h. L' w# L
+ E2 g. y; n1 B. q[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* w/ x6 {2 I# J跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
- Y4 G2 ]9 i  q& D8 v. q$ \
很多人都回学校深造去了
! t" t* |+ c/ L/ C3 x  R嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
0 Y  x. q) h+ XWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- D- }) f0 D9 E; y8 Yboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- V/ t, y3 e5 w* `( S7 uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to  l4 `2 ]+ e0 v! F" _
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! M' }8 x6 @. P' @. T  u& Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; G" [) C0 n9 t1 V' X1 O- O2 ifrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  j3 @& T. j* M6 K4 \* j9 B8 X( {6 cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, V' h! t) {) z8 T6 X! Kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ D5 M; A9 [" r* a9 `pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# g8 X7 P3 w6 J: v6 C% X
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ {- k* d  c; `7 H" |/ f
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ g: D1 Q/ Z6 Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 u3 T  }1 j2 k$ X0 \" I& wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; z- |& {7 ~/ p) fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 e$ |9 W  T5 Z5 ]0 m" o, X
30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 T" ^% G8 f2 Z( ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 T; v: ?. W7 L& [$ e3 L9 VEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 i( i1 R! v/ ]% x' a/ n$ bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 \2 n, Z7 I2 `; m8 n- xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 ^: H: ~# B* T& c8 w
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 S- A1 ~* F0 ^households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: \! `; G. R; E6 f* uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 u  B% \1 q# g% E8 v$ b
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ C6 ^8 o, N* x5 N" K
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ h4 b/ g* |2 U/ Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, u$ }3 E: F2 K; t$ F% n# P
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
  ?3 G3 Q7 Q6 o7 P7 ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 B- o% P$ j; F' ^8 j/ ]4 o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, t2 e) E" |6 [: w5 ~% K+ atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) R% G! ]( G2 L+ c$ `1 K! z" Zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% B1 f8 b: }* _0 h+ H* X
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ A* T6 V4 Z2 T- Z6 g# irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 i0 l+ A: ]9 E1 i# f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' V5 ?9 v, L3 l" w; V5 A1 Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 P% i6 h  q3 }. v; Q& v9 L7 n# L
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' j2 k! }4 s8 C/ U0 I7 l5 t6 Drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ s1 r& u/ T9 S' l- H3 t3 \
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 `2 }) O( v4 I5 H- j0 M! m: L' Kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 ~& ~% h  N; J4 c8 M: v& t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 Q# {9 W1 W9 I( U1 b7 x
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 q- |/ j! K; c! L. g
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ I! {2 ^8 Q7 G" x: B
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 A$ e6 Z% x$ R3 E$ R1 I- V- z* `though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 h7 o& q2 u3 r3 V; E
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.: F- X: f; o+ h5 P: z( f* X- b' ]
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" N. N- [: ?, a# b2 u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# m" r4 |* a+ N1 |9 }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ D! T' ]- A, w7 f% x' P5 I+ }+ C
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' M1 ~: d% C( M, L( t! Wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 A3 x& d% h7 Z5 ?" z. W; XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" z. g) I8 E- @2 Q. l' O/ u# l" u
leg down over 2009.- W6 {9 d; P- Z4 X9 X; E
  Q. G$ Q2 c% u" T& {9 `) M
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% Q$ ?# X$ ~9 O2 u* kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

' A2 r6 L! h. ^9 B* R2 N* {  S1 L6 T' L9 B) Z8 H3 F
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. . J& ]! y, v. ?6 n
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子  O' `1 v$ X5 T/ q

( k0 K0 m& ?4 uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
) J" s  j4 Y( z1 G  D
( T" Q( e# ?1 c. \- e6 l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-20 10:18 , Processed in 0.175279 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表