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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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7 Z( T0 |% z, p) _# }4 ~3 }8 FTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . ^/ s( L" Q$ _- b

9 `9 v5 q+ n9 Z+ g( T" }* w& xThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. & F% o; R  x1 F$ f, g

& B! e) Y" b$ k6 h* jNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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, u% @9 @' }" }+ t0 W4 vTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( [4 W/ J9 v0 |. p/ H  _"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.7 q& }4 l2 \2 _0 J8 G( v
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.   ]7 q4 `5 j# r& a% D+ A  I
$ B# {+ w* j% ]
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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& V& j& C' U6 qTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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. }8 }: S( n2 w/ V8 O3 r/ T[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。7 ~7 p+ @0 m3 ]3 r+ `- N+ C; a
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , _) I) w5 M" L
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
5 |4 @, i& p* I( B9 \  x2 i嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, T/ F* v- U: Q0 }; U- S3 TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: r( t" a; D: {: L, T. o. r( \  n! k' Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 ^. V' a6 h$ I# s. y- H1 P" V
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ B! i1 _, R2 I8 e& O* H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ W* K) Z7 ]6 Q; k
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: C6 ~% v+ G) u+ P( `' Y3 t
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 g, x# T7 S! @! C9 F8 G& @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. l' `' k5 T5 {- G: z4 c' p
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 i- u# a' O4 w  O, upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 V( O; Y# ~% W( x5 T& Dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# q) [+ M, w0 T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! u7 p. z8 l  `4 l) H
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: i, _/ N5 y& d; Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; u4 d- E8 s  E) b: Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, l& f: D' d- f6 K: \( {, B30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 D' X/ L% T( p( r! y1 u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year." _8 i; n  }* M$ Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 K8 z$ }# g' m8 l- t2 f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% @  {2 }$ }* U$ Bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ f' K8 J6 X. q7 A" d) m) ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 g" M9 ^: ~  I, Bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 p0 |' q6 y$ Q# L' R4 i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! M  L9 R9 B2 o, ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) O" N# a2 w1 t1 ^( k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is  S2 X& ]2 u2 s5 m0 S7 g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  R. f: \. r& ^% e" o9 {1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 q6 d: P5 Q* Z5 T2 }6 k" T" [
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# L& D- J/ h6 }
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 z5 C) @/ o& g* V9 \# v' k* a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) S4 [3 D3 F  v4 B/ x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% @/ i' ~/ ]9 E" q4 l7 z; Tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* [5 x  r3 N5 D6 \. D2 ^
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 K4 R3 U, m, J. f9 Y% V+ ~
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 X" u3 S* p' y0 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 Q9 o6 L& Q% N1 L! f" ~of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: j* X' E3 A% D5 N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 Z" {$ W* }$ x7 X1 _% [
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ \; ]) c) d% ^' ]5 r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: U4 u9 E& R4 b. t# H6 p1 A- ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" \* W3 U$ b. V( B# ^* @- dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 d' Q" G: Z2 krelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 Q. |: {( }& u6 ^0 `* G2 Z( Q3 d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 _6 ?5 j( J4 ~$ ^: L2 }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 |- F& \, X( B! f( O1 D& b6 hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! z  ?( K( I' M1 V6 @
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; v$ z" J1 `5 G2 I9 dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
: {& M+ |! t0 w( Gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 h/ _! k' x: {- d6 {0 j+ V
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; o+ j# n( ]3 S- u  x" ?5 w% o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' t% w% }2 P$ i! R2 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: _1 d; E. t) I2 c& Ileg down over 2009.' R: P8 P: J- K1 H3 c: b" r. i* a
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ k) G* ^! A" N, x
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 ^+ o' S2 W# N) V4 N- g+ @2 ?# R; }翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子, j" j+ V4 y/ Y  i; A* Y$ r

  j8 X0 r5 F+ t$ G  B" R. {$ Uhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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