 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" v- Q/ W- i$ d% K9 UWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: q5 D% ?- F4 Y6 t) T- qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 X R' \7 W) I$ e/ I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
9 u( e: G- x9 c" @- ]% q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ ?, J) q1 T" V7 R$ k; Cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ ?+ ?8 d4 f0 Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- n% f0 u0 M; {* \, H* Y. Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- Y0 U$ a3 o& ?# Y9 z1 D; pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous( v; J! u7 Z) l2 \9 q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 a8 m1 w) g% E8 h; |) [
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. o2 D$ j2 P6 B. K& ?. O Q6 m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" c3 z+ M" R" X" b5 d# N! `5 I5 |
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
$ g. P% {! B3 `* d+ b7 h! d x+ Wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 U: I1 u& g% P8 C1 b0 Q1 z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 y2 N7 j5 Y) C" i1 L30,000 new households will form in the province during
, _) s' x2 w! _+ h4 T m/ v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
0 K. I2 e' y$ N; t# bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ I9 Y; B! }! o, ?* ~; F
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ y2 I3 j4 e# C* y$ Y8 Q( Y, X. ]/ H' @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 E4 M! E/ v0 H2 c1 mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 M6 ?; M8 l) R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, d0 ^7 O! ] S5 u1 V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ ^# k+ l3 O* {( M. I+ i& w* Z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- p7 v- E* _6 G9 w/ lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; \6 i9 b* t+ l! @) c
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. W; G! E. ?6 p8 _- g6 T- W: r7 G1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( {' F$ y3 U: s( Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive% s$ Z+ n4 n* |, p8 u$ \
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ v0 s7 [- s4 l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 q4 L! o. D; Z2 T
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# C1 C) ]7 E1 r8 w2 R+ t* k# {, f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest K$ u, J, K: r: T: M8 y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) p& w6 Q, \& ^4 W: u2 [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ y" Z! m) Z6 kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. e" g" e% x, t+ d8 ]. `of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 Z$ p; X5 C4 \
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 B# ^4 ~ \+ T1 `8 U/ E5 K; {
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 p& r# ^8 d0 t3 X3 L2 Yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% c/ \# d: O. l a% h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan" a- H$ ~( @" T, V
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ R4 [- C& ?/ J# t1 I1 M+ c3 prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ d- \7 ^: p3 C8 ], u( A9 x
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* C" ^& I5 K. r# K+ C9 A
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ s/ [+ y$ @4 h9 x% u2 w
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ Z( k# J6 V- S/ C) |$ p* sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ v* T! W; t0 [3 u# I
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ u& p; ~- w: R/ s/ Z, \! I( yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 R: q8 N6 q- J( V" `
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( s4 m' c* s" U6 j
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; h* \3 Q* J! ^. y) J- IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: r3 h. N% j1 ?. c( e8 D3 T. ileg down over 2009.0 N! X( t4 M3 T9 I- Q
5 D$ R- l2 ^! t- M
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|