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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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* @5 v/ h  O2 z/ I* s  o7 s2 J6 FTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . n( q: h3 p6 q

: t  {1 V- x6 g! xThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. + E$ U$ L8 ]. X% y
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 l* C& b7 N" p$ h
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# E! C3 s6 A9 v% Y( P

7 o# M: P$ T  I/ lTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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& V; G; E* d) W! I( WTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.! u, v) V) u! z8 q
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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2 q2 n! Z& w3 Z: j( K+ Nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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9 w5 a1 c2 D& L( d; H% w[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( r8 J& ?( M8 p; @
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 3 H5 R/ k% L3 `7 U/ P/ e/ _
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
# s$ X- s& \; t8 h7 l0 K嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- U4 T0 G' F8 v7 ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 A. l6 q' X" A$ m5 o4 J
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 o, m1 F5 R! `+ _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) s6 f) o; {3 B) `
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 ?7 l7 m& `& g# g. J& D  S/ X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( L, N/ s  B- H# i. s6 t
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 d8 e! `  M+ t2 r/ e6 W
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 o' A- u5 I4 i7 [0 o. Lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 c' j, b; {1 e- R
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( d3 c3 B% W$ F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 L; h$ s) @. Q0 c/ d) F1 f: X1 o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 d' T5 s" p" h7 L) A  j5 b# aprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 L! y% g$ Z  dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 u; S) X" E' n6 i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) H# T% Y+ \: t30,000 new households will form in the province during% B" u) w, i& S1 z/ u/ Q% n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 n: H$ l( u2 K* hEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& @$ u: n  I( H4 J2 @- \0 f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 [- S1 C! N% oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, P( J. A. Q% h2 e& @
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 ]. h: q6 L- h/ d$ C4 [& Ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 h3 F3 E% Z. J" Y" F: k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" D* u1 S5 M, t- a' s. L
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; H: U. Z, W8 xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 ?" ]% w- t0 Z+ s4 yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 E$ I' B+ u; y8 S$ f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 a) Q# p% R; j( ]9 @sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 f* H# S0 [1 {, \9 C; N0 V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 [' I3 t  k' ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- n5 R) N  _: e, [6 k0 B1 q& x9 H
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 V' ~) P% Y7 G0 m. P
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 N) L* |3 a" q) m
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! ?  G# D. f1 D* Mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* ^" c. P5 t  T! qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- R3 p2 H* `8 s8 w$ N- }7 Mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& p" S1 {6 B+ g' q: e$ ?, U8 t; Arapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 l6 q% r6 t6 g  g
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. a, S' v2 [" g, ~% T
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 Q4 t, h. W& Q% r5 ]Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( F( v2 \$ d# ^* ]
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 U# k" t' s3 D0 p& k% w1 t) ?
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' e; P0 j1 S* g) N
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, w: M% {* h# B- n$ d2 y3 g& v: Vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 t" X- H3 H8 A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ V: P+ i( _3 f/ d. c* VThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: O: r& k( x. cresale price in February is evidence that past prices! K: Z4 @- r  K3 v8 R/ B
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& a4 x# H5 `0 r. C! Q8 v* U( {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! |: o0 W0 I& q- {$ e7 rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ l% M: ?' @) {$ c  C" f! m* O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) B# _! l% F+ m9 Z, E) l2 Z6 \7 A
leg down over 2009.
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7 b; S) J$ R5 E9 H4 x7 V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( m. V6 ~) n! [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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9 L: o& _3 b6 p- H8 I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) M" `6 p2 Y! q! Q, T3 k
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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; N, W* @1 W$ q2 n5 _3 c1 T) ^http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments; w* R" k3 O5 E  P' {1 x- w
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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