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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 X) f+ L, d5 a. m8 R# BWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; d. r1 [. g, m& l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; f8 o1 _; {4 i( F( e3 vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 q9 }; X- t6 ?3 \" o2 t8 c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 t( P1 F3 _' R3 P* mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! _" x0 Z5 h% C c8 ~
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, U# P# V/ r, g. \" q/ l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) h" B+ R5 T1 b. y5 c+ _# t: j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) ~/ ~4 v2 E1 ~+ C
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ t# ~8 ]- ^0 S- m0 ?7 s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 g( e. N6 i' l+ N# e, F. d
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# @4 P3 e7 r& z" C7 ^+ C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' e0 d& o2 N4 U- b& ~0 k; vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 Y, \ Y, R& {9 vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 s0 P. i& F4 L; ~% K% f
30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ N' ?9 R& i) k/ E' S' F" l* @2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. o2 @( X9 q0 ~( u. K4 r4 uEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: X' B; r1 S- V1 b/ v) G/ F' E
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 M+ }# o" s' A: A( }
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& }; Q- p6 \; s, h! E" A; j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 D: S" h; n6 [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' d' f" G4 N2 j4 Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ U3 G: a$ B( c; o, L/ n0 O& |& H: bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 M; ~8 h5 _( I3 a0 l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- Y5 X- ? G3 `excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 A' K8 T& q' a9 W( I5 E5 W, r1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! H" z- Z7 @- ?+ P) c3 zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 L; g( \5 ^4 V7 t& J
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 @( ^/ `- k9 I2 e- q" h
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& T6 v9 o; |- s: k4 Q+ Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ N) { B! {/ G# n" A' ~) k% v
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* L5 S+ Z; H% h# irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 I1 |% p! I( G/ m* H+ Yresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- C- h$ [3 Q5 O N/ v7 n
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ b, b6 p, v/ r0 j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; M6 G6 D, `: M( V9 I
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ s( A' g8 u; g9 x( NThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# m# W1 @6 |: A0 u) S; H/ @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- J. F+ V' d4 J; R; i4 f0 ^" f0 MAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; J T! J5 ~) n9 ~& w$ Y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& J! h- D3 ~# h) q- d( nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, m7 H$ K4 S7 M) a, P
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even( [0 v. `: C. Y1 Y s4 c$ ] T% _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; F$ z1 ]# e: \) Zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) Q) D: N2 \5 G) o- F6 v0 DThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 C9 {9 z' [# D* N( g! ]( }5 _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! z, }: R: R0 s- l" l$ s+ E
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* T& h1 ]* z1 B% Y% l- s
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 J+ M, Q# P$ H5 a: k, }7 ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( q0 t- m/ b! F+ E3 [7 X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" U* B- D" l# q/ jleg down over 2009.' J3 e( J% U, a% b9 a9 f: k+ b
0 e P1 I! A7 }2 z( e: u: i0 [; X9 M8 [1 |
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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