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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
: O; z/ W; @2 Q) d0 Z/ AWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- u: Y1 f7 [: w- I% _2 A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( \2 f0 h% w2 F5 ]: j2 j, iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 t2 K6 g& G) s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: U5 X1 |6 p' z6 i4 U& k4 P( }( }formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" ^" J$ ~8 n! X' i1 l6 Q# O9 K" D
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ t5 k4 Q: v9 [) R. \. R* zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 v1 L: L# h. H9 j* kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous# Z; b3 _# e& ]( O
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 ^) I1 k4 K9 G: q# @precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! p$ |0 A4 H; B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" v' f3 z7 Z( P% C0 i2 g5 H6 {
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 |, \- \, c" R$ M! A
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 `; I: F* H9 O$ ?6 q2 ^3 q1 Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. j6 @1 M7 Y- ^% w30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 E; J5 t- `; m% ^3 m2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ e0 S( C) ~) xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ U3 J; j% q* P( a8 G; @
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 ~; v7 o* M1 B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta M0 D2 y" Y8 H: t/ c f
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 S& ~, m3 N$ @households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- Q9 p- u; U: N6 P# s- z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 \+ N: c* g* Z# e- G( S8 T, i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. n9 R; |3 s# C# m% o8 K- nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 {* t7 w4 L% A" P3 _# ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( E# M8 R& j) ]& ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ b( X0 p# r8 F* |0 G. Osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ Q0 e2 r) n3 o; F9 w8 x; Dbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- z: j" k4 M( v6 s: V" K$ V7 J# Mtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: _8 B0 z1 w( f: m" W; @& Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% C$ H8 {. ^$ F
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& H1 U: b- F4 [
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
w0 d* l) H$ L A: `resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 A* ~' _' L Y1 a( a0 x! F, K+ E6 a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 j% B( F I6 Q5 S+ q; f
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; B( {% Q4 Q4 Lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 @+ h7 J# J: I; N
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; L! R; a* q7 n) F/ N2 A% ?- Sboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# K1 `) T# Z# |4 K. @1 VAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 u) {# k# H5 D2 ^% U2 y: ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 { M9 ~% E4 \* D
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 j1 ~" a0 r; ]7 G3 b, E7 qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 A+ H" d- I Vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 s0 }0 P5 o- K8 l- I5 u0 d, z; K: n a
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 t# Z$ ~6 \/ x
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 \/ y+ ]5 ?1 @ Y; f+ s% a& |resale price in February is evidence that past prices; Z- a( T$ f6 v' `* A. U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ N9 @9 L* Z6 U
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ ~% S6 C; O6 H/ l' w
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," T) H/ p7 d% B u0 t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 ^, `( y- ]& S$ o Xleg down over 2009.
4 k/ f8 s3 E0 t$ ~8 V+ c( m7 M3 w! f( N2 u8 \5 O8 w- u
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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