埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2434|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
' i7 S- v1 n; w) H. c
$ }7 H" v, L+ F( o: T# M  rTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 f* u/ E5 O# k2 h6 Q

8 A6 \1 z6 \0 {( H# m- ]The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
6 O! F; N9 A- ]6 w. I' V# D) E% N9 V3 b
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
+ }- h! m3 L" w7 n. |- m' f! C, L2 Z4 |. e* l
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.0 k$ @8 l9 e: Y" \9 F) y2 u
3 N& Z. `& V  S
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.: g/ Z. w1 _$ ]! m( B- M! L
  K9 u) }5 x1 n' t! C) v
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. . y  Z' }$ C7 T. \2 r8 W

1 _: m: ~" l0 HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
9 G3 F4 ]4 b7 a& g% z" X4 ^4 |7 F; m- `, ~
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 r! R4 B" z- V- w1 i

; m7 f7 ]3 k4 u" ehttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
  x5 h- j( [' j5 ~- J. Q

) v4 y8 ?+ e8 x1 wTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,5 P( p" _) H, _! G/ r9 N4 T

2 g. U. A; e* `2 X. m) B1 I0 d- G6 z[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。5 U/ J2 D* ~- [0 m
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
$ F; C3 `* A. b0 l2 c$ `' r( f( f: @9 b3 K# w4 u
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 # M- U; U) M/ x; T7 g( L. N  _* H
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
# ?. y5 E$ _! u4 B( q' D4 _& E
很多人都回学校深造去了
* @& Z$ z7 h/ ~嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 P- F  x, t4 D1 q! J2 n
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 j* _" Z' Z& Z+ Aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, D* ]2 \9 V, ]4 J* `1 C1 o3 _/ sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& Y% v6 U) Q; T' t- r  H2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! m. c' R" _, t  R4 s$ M7 j
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, M, v" G! g. p  \" X
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ Y) W! }% I; X+ l5 ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ p  y7 C2 Q8 P  ^8 h8 [1 F" N7 d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 A" F0 H  u7 u3 E
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( ?% s, L3 d4 w! x+ [0 H% k9 l$ z3 A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 y, J9 ?' L' G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 W8 q1 h7 E: G2 y  c- X/ v7 L
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) ?( [* s! Q( U
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! x+ [- S& V( Z) j: T9 g$ A: Chomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) H4 c! Y6 k: p. G" M  q2 P0 A30,000 new households will form in the province during  L. q" G! a& P( x. t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ I+ R( {( j% ?$ w3 X6 n+ zEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 w( X. g- c6 t' A- e5 _/ U
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) p$ g9 @  c7 \2 S+ A0 A
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) C7 d9 ]( C: Q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( X( ?- I- Q! E# q1 A0 C8 v3 Qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 @$ F4 d( G$ K0 i7 uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* q! j6 V: s2 K) `$ x
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 o( t$ n$ c7 x* nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' _  R& M8 q9 G7 V$ }5 d, ?
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  A/ d2 t) {1 _' Q6 b1 E/ F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 D1 M2 u. o% M5 K! R
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) Q5 P6 t; |# k' a& s% Bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ p& m8 {6 t8 V% Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% Z& L, g6 u5 g2 |/ P: G
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* S: a- b! g. i3 {' q9 J3 \3 [
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% v4 e2 i9 Z& J: E5 s- drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# F0 u: X% m; J" ^2 m- Z. Yresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ i8 q! |" z1 H( D  }2 umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 L  z% S  c2 I4 P/ O" Y! A+ x8 z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( r7 N% [5 U+ u% D8 Erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" o, N  T- R) [1 a4 E' oThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; v( V- w& X0 R" G8 h4 N, K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. Q- `& t) M6 @6 y; l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! {; P9 y" e2 R4 m. F: O
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! a) R# ^" a& u% ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 C. L- r: m. E' K; e
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 J+ F( A5 F- C& ^1 V" W0 c1 Z2 vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; S3 b  ?3 |7 K* e2 W5 `- eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 n4 {7 |2 _1 |8 l2 u
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- W& k% ]  a  j+ O% T: F$ [
resale price in February is evidence that past prices9 O9 D8 _5 \. `8 b' f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 ]) b! t# h5 e7 o* ~- q* ^
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# ^! Z# P8 {0 Ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 w$ i3 g. x' f0 l8 FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 C# }, L! O* z" d1 O0 Qleg down over 2009.# R& H* |( m0 s8 q
; n4 D7 B) H+ ]1 k; P3 N
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 k% k/ b! k( X3 \+ I% V8 V" HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

1 E; ~( S7 {5 x2 L) {( d( l- |( Y: n' U2 k" ~+ F# B+ [
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 D; n% j9 N2 z$ @& @5 X' f
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子. Q  H% u+ ^8 a6 x' J3 H
& ~' \! k" \+ w$ m4 K  h/ ~
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
& B2 t. \- Q" \: K4 J0 O6 V$ L. A# @6 E* R$ }
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-9 21:16 , Processed in 0.131817 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表