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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta9 w& d D8 x* b* o
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ ~3 P3 J" `2 _2 aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ Y: Y" j( x( v
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" E2 t8 Y( J- }1 a: F/ i! D" Y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( x0 L2 }! Z: p, V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 C$ f8 X) C0 e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ `) W$ B, e4 K% A: |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# J; a+ s9 u ]* h, h0 a
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- ~0 R$ f# c9 j3 q' Mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 p1 W8 L+ X d* Fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ ^ N! a: }, e1 B5 qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; @8 y! Q! _6 p9 ^& l, R9 r: Y# s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# n6 |* t, G3 n& _1 R) U0 ?
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 C7 W* F/ T, x- @# e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" c0 X6 C( m' a1 w" L5 T, ]% D. I. z
30,000 new households will form in the province during9 m! r; W1 B6 R( c6 ~1 S) x
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) p- c; A" z2 W! l$ F7 a9 aEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ _7 y, K/ s3 D. ^, H' E0 ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: W% j R* v! M3 a8 ?( ]0 M
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ _5 N2 X1 z2 s4 M0 {- p6 O( o' H2 K
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ h ^* P3 n7 [5 d/ ]. S+ u h6 Shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 W, c, A- s5 S- [$ X- F2 dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 I& ?& r- n8 L7 R6 c: [) \. Asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& _, T$ u6 B1 ?: T: T* V+ v
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 ?0 x" c$ Q4 U5 s9 ]
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ \7 }- @+ v- P2 Z, F1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 m8 v8 S- i4 ~2 t, ]sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 c" _7 f; h; A/ C3 ]" [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
8 Z& D0 ?: g" ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: y0 L! D5 q7 c6 f1 qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 {7 d' u$ Q; \. `' H; |
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 R0 X( D/ T. c0 M! a* {- b: r4 h( |recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; i4 |6 _3 C1 Z! ~0 I- K w# ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* I }+ V5 R7 S) `! Z, e3 b3 Q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) C( d$ Z4 J2 m" L$ iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled g% D5 ]6 }5 |+ R
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 P7 ?# d6 n/ C# zThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% t& }; K& Y0 xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- G3 W7 z3 _, E) y# p
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 ]4 e4 V, l! \1 \. `% p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& O+ l2 d Q( n: e7 X6 `
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 Z' [2 m; c) _0 F) a
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: D( P, x4 p: x3 e
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
8 S1 [2 z. p+ F+ C& \! ^2 Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. O# _. E. `4 d+ M1 z: X
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! G8 [" t @4 l( n/ H
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 H1 a; i# O" G$ w
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" [1 @5 w5 D; a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ u6 o: Z2 I8 Q) [ }1 p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories, ^) l) J$ F' C
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, m; F3 X7 ]! C+ jleg down over 2009.
1 @8 ~3 a: p: Y# d# s- |9 [. T# o( q# R) x: g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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