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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
# I4 S. N3 q+ C0 B$ R: B: E3 N' {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) |9 }) v9 a1 t- }6 N- Z F( m ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( E8 L8 x8 m$ T8 w: k: Sare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 }% m/ }* D9 w2 n3 R2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& M! H o C P- [. u$ X& Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 ~; I2 \' |6 o9 A% jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' I& C- {6 I- X( u" {' ?1 B4 P `7 d
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and f, u4 S0 v0 }. P8 E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. S C- a- M( \( V- upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ a4 h+ \+ r/ a2 P6 n& J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% G0 T+ ?: j5 x! e! G. V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 k1 Y& K$ N" W! O' Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 u+ M% j' Z% N" o& e$ j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," w' X" P& v; R$ P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 N; l! E$ N6 q8 U* P; F# |30,000 new households will form in the province during
* g9 ]% b" a2 V, I, o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ z0 \/ ]; e/ O( D3 `" z3 F+ N x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* a5 d L6 h& q; E1 R# G- V( ?( @
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& y' K( X _5 K" [6 w+ d9 z9 [during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 e: \3 G" e G! v/ Hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 R4 e4 F+ u4 A' w. W. bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 J& E4 D" F/ ^- V* Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ F- a) C9 B0 B: [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 I3 w" u8 B( \9 d! X3 v) ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ c; h( K. i4 n# @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, o3 T1 O# U$ r$ |8 S9 V. T J1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 ?4 K, W& C% z3 G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 O4 M1 n& u3 J& B8 q3 J7 i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 F: D7 D' m& C; F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ Q" T; V9 h4 I# ~- { u" xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 O/ b5 ~3 `4 C& J4 `& k6 Q5 Y5 F
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ c. {5 B' G" d( xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 y( Y- d# I) D& B2 f3 p2 `( l5 ~
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ l4 D9 i- D3 {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 n5 ^5 J; b+ h3 yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* L; A- x& o4 z# D) b ^ zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ k1 m; G5 ]/ ] b" ^The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( ^. J$ L B4 h4 l4 D
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.1 A. S, w! ?1 A+ l5 b) \/ _
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan& _! {) `; W5 v; O6 K: p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. h. g- W" I; p' U+ l, mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 `& f' s& M. i0 n0 s- G. N
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 f) q/ l- ]0 y8 m( I/ n; f+ F
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
a* r$ z* @) R6 j( \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- N4 U2 B5 ?6 S3 y# E% N
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 Q6 A; \3 l) J8 iresale price in February is evidence that past prices( x% _' P5 m1 D# c/ B( Y. X
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ v" k( t( R2 _& F% {! A) i. _4 F
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ B* E0 [4 i5 p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 a) y2 Y0 w C* R: `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: q. P- h7 \2 h- R/ [2 o/ y
leg down over 2009.+ C: E" Y5 N _. `* j8 k
; ]- Q; C0 x+ }$ N V9 m
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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