TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
" N' M5 I$ l: f7 s; Ufrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
- o. `& N) K) Xprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
" b2 A& z, A/ f' ~2 E9 v) ?fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
/ m$ e4 J, s5 i6 Z; T3 koverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
; B. g( }9 e7 p8 C; x! zthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
( z  C* X* m9 t0 A/ eboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
3 @7 P) Y% p( q: A$ v& }" c- O2 _to fundamentally justified levels.
( q0 L/ |7 o; ?0 r9 kWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
7 h( H+ E) p% W. B7 R9 Gwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
2 ]0 i; `( j9 h5 b5 Lthat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
( x+ R7 F/ U) U  \' s( V; Dmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
9 {1 l/ D/ G4 z' Ron markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
1 D6 F6 b: w# W3 t  r- g8 @from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
& [) U3 g) ]5 y* ?9 x! rdampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
5 {' ]' x+ c% X# iis now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
% W$ U4 G5 w8 @/ y7 O, i/ [125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
& B7 b% A4 d3 Q3 uin the fourth quarter.
: m! H/ F. H) MTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
7 V7 [5 u! k( A* N) |3 D" Sregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
8 a( j6 {& M+ _. hof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
% `% ^+ A/ c$ B" Qwould have occurred if housing had been priced
0 Y1 J; y1 u5 N8 l+ k! _optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
0 Y0 e9 R6 G7 U( j! O4 Swhere housing demand will further contract under waning
$ C. D4 y" ?7 G0 X( Dpopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
  @) z& m; }4 W0 S8 lalready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
; g' p5 Y8 h8 ^/ @$ n" sbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
& H2 V* W$ @+ e8 R: Thas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
. W- K# I8 h+ C0 ^- PQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
4 f+ M! ~+ A3 F. S, n) `7 Ocyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
2 k' x. f! t' n  G7 X4 Mhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
& l1 L+ {4 j' s. ~' oresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
- x' v8 c! }) t1 m& HOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
4 c/ t/ t1 \. J  |& X+ G, e, |416-982-8063
, [7 L7 m. ~) APascal Gauthier, Economist
6 m4 P' O& L) B$ z416-944-5730
2 y* |3 S5 l% n5 U' y
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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