TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
. K: `8 }! W+ U5 |. y9 g1 Sfrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
: Z) V8 o( b' ]! u# s, Z3 wunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
* X8 j) b5 \1 V% _. w: i3 Gfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
5 i  T" O: H1 ~3 athree years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
  ~) ]6 {( r( V1 E- s: [" C$ ?) R% K: iboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
3 q# @9 _* ?' e+ R# i! {& e2 TWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
% h5 `5 Q0 q3 e7 vthere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
+ Y) G# P8 y; P6 P9 K7 kthat is now being rapidly reined in.
. O+ ^4 \) W  H* {While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
, }( c2 o" Q7 a6 A# p# {5 h* ^7 D4 von markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
) z7 ?4 l1 M2 u- u- Rfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
$ c; H% {8 j6 t% ~) X5 F3 fprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
% J" G4 C" y: T: J# u- tlong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
0 h6 d" s' U3 k8 X: H2 z+ Xregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
+ I; J# q3 u. t% |  ZTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
1 m' n3 H: M7 z( l9 a“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
+ b2 s! Q9 T/ Xwould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
' y( M, N& _/ I( h4 p0 q1 ufundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
" L8 v1 |! M; D+ Zunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
( z; a3 H5 M; e3 fRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
* ~8 C" U/ U4 T. A/ T. y  gwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
5 @1 [/ b6 J' x/ l1 `* ]! talready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
0 _; R% W( E1 j0 N  zbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
$ V/ V! }- f$ L2 A/ L- hhas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
" B) e- l5 E6 L6 f# [weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
: K* J* J& K; I  H8 eQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
* }( X0 o% g8 Estrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
, H+ x3 m* b9 G" tMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
$ r# }7 I" q6 S0 hrates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
" O* s, w8 Y4 U# u5 Q" S; J( n& k1 Xlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
  T9 a3 [$ O& u) Q: \! t( Y% @condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
8 H2 B0 h, Q- }6 Rhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
8 S  a+ m7 M- i" e* g4 Fconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
7 H1 u( {% o8 y$ }7 Lreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
' N/ L2 p3 y! k  C( @( }cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
+ \, i+ b) ~- v  a. @9 J$ G% Bresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
* ?. L2 f( P* q  \2 C) w* |years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
8 [+ @* s/ u/ T: J3 U: bwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
3 p, H: v1 s7 l3 q- ]OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
/ p7 V% o' T0 V  Y; M9 LGrant Bishop, Economist
$ J4 s7 W! Y5 X, S416-982-8063
9 B  X2 ?6 R/ ?" o; JPascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730
# l2 f% \8 a& _/ ?8 r
, G# I* n8 \# \4 c' p" U7 H) V9 X$ }http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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