TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
! q+ z8 l! g7 I+ [& U0 R, r/ u; {from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
) m+ p+ m7 S( ^( Y% @3 v: Zprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
% d: o5 O* A, O7 S7 v" f$ Vthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
/ ]5 `8 D; ^2 B: W& C12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
. a% ?& [, x$ k9 Pthree years.
& V9 R; V8 `/ mBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
; ?7 x% ^* ~+ i8 t4 mboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
7 s. ~3 D4 D+ t: pWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
* @" |% I# t. Ywhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
' I, _6 N6 u. M# I, H1 u“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
3 H2 u' s' I/ d' vhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
0 q, c5 A( D0 C; W2 son markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
8 u; Y, \/ q  @, j6 Z1 l: _125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
2 I# A6 o; l* {5 c. a. kprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
* j3 `3 s! T4 [values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
' c7 e; l. q9 L, V; D4 e" \of residential construction.
$ l1 B5 T  m" X1 I' e$ p, U$ aTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
% m  [1 d- V; @. e- p“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
! f5 m$ B9 A+ J( Kmany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
% P% y( L, O# i; M1 Q& T3 Cwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
3 s$ ]1 G; x1 z* P7 N5 }+ nvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
; G* G! F+ {" @6 V5 m5 z1 uhas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
  N$ D5 y, S; L. t4 p/ ]" D) ~weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
- ?! o7 J- T9 J* O3 P: IQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
* H* b% y3 l5 M: w9 \/ v, Vstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
8 c5 ^+ a1 I5 O0 j5 Acyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
" E0 X3 F# F* ~- n9 flimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
& Q+ Z' A6 b5 Z3 s+ H* Y3 yhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
1 m: m/ U2 v8 m. V0 d" c! ]  vreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
9 h' V9 v# H' q9 O6 k' Espike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
( Q  B' F9 A# q1 |$ \) _* E- kresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
2 R% [3 L. v" Pyears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
. Q6 Y' U+ \+ b. S* w6 oOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
) u9 l+ Y% [7 I7 DGrant Bishop, Economist
0 j9 U7 M! |9 m5 o0 Z6 z9 t416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
+ R, s# ^1 [6 S" B+ D0 B416-944-5730
3 d: s4 u0 \( F) S& W/ h, U; C
" M/ T* O  C; g, p& ^4 Mhttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

宋兵乙