TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
& z5 A8 Z5 t, p" O  ]9 L! Jfrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
' H* U& |4 t. }unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
7 F- _3 M1 V9 D0 ]$ |5 xprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
" T  m& P, m1 P; n  n) hthree years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
' Y% L  K. k4 E! R2 P. }8 Otheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
; {$ ~$ P: v. S: V$ u2 Hto fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
% t- r7 {9 n: ]3 x0 ]$ k+ p: y; Qwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
; K8 r- C( c+ Sthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
; |9 r4 W4 F' }$ x+ D5 T- g, jthere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
2 i0 V% q+ Q2 |3 _' O$ OWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
+ M1 u1 W4 p; X; qmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
; e' ~0 N4 w% _! D: T3 J8 Aon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
  P0 h) @/ ^3 v* E. S5 |3 \2 C7 \dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
2 m1 T! G  F. J1 ]5 M# bresidential construction will fall further to around
0 K/ j+ {$ e9 q( ?125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
0 V9 B7 v2 X  k0 @3 o6 S. vTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
3 f5 _$ w7 H3 Twe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
0 h* j. a  Q4 H2 [9 m: i2 yfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
* Q5 R' H2 K  Q8 @values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
% H6 [6 I: j7 Z9 Q8 Q* }regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
8 E5 ?! a6 |; }/ @- w/ {( noptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
, w+ [& h1 m6 }3 k, s! y2 Q- `7 Munits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
; a; K1 ]* {7 |many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
- J1 r# s* {! M& J; lRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
$ m% V6 V1 ^- C) ~3 a& dalready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
. \3 O- ]' o1 S6 r, G0 kweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
7 p: B* ]! @1 f! @- rstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
; n0 B% g( h2 Y. Agiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
2 Q; U0 Y2 r& d$ S$ Trates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
4 p3 a4 f9 \7 ^5 Q% y& p3 acondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
5 y6 u) |: v* \3 V4 j* ~cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
7 J. V% t8 l3 y0 T& V8 J8 qspike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
4 R6 D6 o3 H" ?% n/ b0 Zresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
- ^! {& }3 v5 s9 ~8 j5 ^will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
+ _0 T3 W8 n* XOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
( E2 S: U8 W5 k4 d, P, H& AMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
, Y+ T( {* }$ D$ V& JGrant Bishop, Economist
: m1 ~4 P2 C* L$ L416-982-8063
* R7 t% Q+ h$ fPascal Gauthier, Economist
, y, k$ x" ~- K- E" Z416-944-5730
4 l/ K- I4 p  C; I/ g
8 v5 x  m% u/ B5 h( D  U  }http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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