TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
- x# X9 X0 v: |& hunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
/ `7 S' B8 X. t7 J. Qfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
* K# y( M7 u5 ?$ {3 f" k' Voverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
  T" k% F; M2 E) F+ D% J12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
$ [% w: _' k5 I# U5 D" KBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
; d( F* f% b" V/ Xaffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
9 q& {$ g& p. T4 L' W0 `  cthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
# \+ F9 U1 A4 z% P# ~5 A% {“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
7 {( ?2 a, r% }  eWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
3 ]' P0 n8 J1 Ufrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
& Y: q6 Y0 B9 @is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
+ Q! e: ~, U, O, v+ Nto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
7 P9 U" N/ j. j$ j8 O0 k7 Vresidential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
/ s3 c; w8 a6 z/ Din the fourth quarter.
! _! K% E1 M% VTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
: P1 h: |7 a0 [5 x: q( [4 n7 ywe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
7 G! T. }8 x3 n, @. s9 a5 O, W' uprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
" G& v7 z4 f; a# L  X$ _$ swould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
% z, U5 A; u7 F. `7 e# Xfundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
: o! X. c! H  A- H8 K8 JRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
. y& h& f7 ?8 N6 npopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
0 |4 S/ N; c9 `/ Tvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
* w$ q* a% x6 M- W* `9 B' M9 RQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
9 V: z2 R: j0 p6 |& qstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
3 X# [6 m* ~( W, S, gMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
! }; ?8 I! C' [1 x% qlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
- z* q' B% @. \: X9 preach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
2 d. i) ]) o; g1 \1 Ocyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
# \1 r+ ?& a3 C8 N! tinter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
& p) L- g! R# cwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
' ?: X3 q) Q! v7 Z" G3 L4 q/ h7 N, xOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
6 l" E+ X- n  F( z( B& R$ [MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730
' o/ l, L7 O9 m7 a8 Z( t
/ x3 o$ I) |, Y  C; Lhttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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