TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
2 z- u) @7 a( }from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
% m9 ?5 J: F# L, e: C# G- ~unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
( y; G- Q. ]/ a! R/ _* toverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
  a& E% w' @- }0 `to fundamentally justified levels.
. J. w9 ]  ]$ a7 E$ B. n, R* N$ mWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
& j: O' I; Z" x4 Z: jwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
! U) v5 B3 l0 {that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
6 m- p1 U3 A: F  V1 y; a- z0 A) cwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
# n/ V& B# j, U9 J( c& Bthat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
* p; A' g, g: q! q2 D. G) Tthe construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
* M0 ~) O, J* C% q9 ndampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
  S# N6 r5 n* Kis now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
+ m! c6 i: Y0 _long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
- e/ M0 P" [: M5 zregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
) D8 e# F; W2 `) ^+ H" bTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
/ H3 y/ ~/ S0 G& W, [% k5 w. ?5 x“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
1 C. B7 M) h5 gwould have occurred if housing had been priced
- g* j7 A! e7 g- |optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
4 z- P( m" K) q) B  r1 l- Fmany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
! m) x2 [6 N8 n" r9 ?2 ARegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
1 w8 U4 V4 z! K# Q6 P# @4 q! ralready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
  w/ I8 J+ T; }& B6 l) _8 kMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
; I9 D9 R0 s3 e0 J( z4 Rgiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
: n# i# b* a; Vcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
+ V$ C; T! t0 K% u8 {$ Mconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
0 ?/ Y$ R7 c- [9 m& ?. X2 w7 B* hinter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
" s; j- z. t! D3 U6 ewill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
: A' j7 b8 Q2 M7 lOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
6 }" B' A5 J) L0 v. [9 n0 b" l- hMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
3 i1 f  i* \( k# g; c) i: |Grant Bishop, Economist
- v* f& t- J: ^3 ^; l; `, f416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730
7 J, u" P+ M/ W& ~* v! O/ h, n  s
- W6 c  s$ a+ chttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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