TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
1 C- Q& R* p5 N, Qfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
5 u7 W' t$ E7 Naffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
. a$ j! W( i- g) A, Fboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
( t  M$ S/ A& f# _" gto fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
* \& M1 [/ `7 b0 J8 Z4 w0 }where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
  k: G8 [% E- K; |that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
2 @6 C, w; X3 L% Fwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
. z) `7 I3 |3 V) Mthat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
2 f# }- x6 I, Z3 S3 t6 won markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
/ A: t& ?/ C7 H; \9 ?& Mfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
9 N8 ?6 r5 ^& L7 \dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
9 f4 O' M' b5 x; l' T; I! p/ Ais now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
. u, P2 @4 O% B8 f4 gto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
. A. y+ P, X9 i  C$ M7 qfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
9 U. G+ P3 |1 E: p1 E! S  z* hprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
2 ]2 P8 {+ o! V' _values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
" X* e0 o9 p0 U' t$ S- e# ?! |To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
1 T! b1 p  [  O5 s' m) \units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
/ s& u/ x4 @. \, J3 o% l& j/ Zwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
# w8 h* ?: ~) P- W: @weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
1 M( K5 o& ]7 k$ ~, S' H9 BQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
$ i/ i: \- ]; ?& @' b; G& GMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
/ H' ?( d4 A3 M# o1 M, o$ }given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
# `+ H1 m( [5 Y" ^$ g, t$ D9 l: C7 rlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
% H% t& x+ o+ j: ?condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
: Y# {) J) @$ {6 \& i; z% r& q8 lconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
5 Y; _9 w+ E4 Y' v) greach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
" f, E5 c: f$ \' espike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
7 j9 n9 \. Z8 R6 O+ Y1 R4 iresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
" j/ K* X. T' ~1 panticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
/ `9 F! T2 K( c# J0 Q; Gwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
7 X, L) H' r# @' XMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
$ T" l! J+ s7 K3 E" e! ]416-982-8063
7 Y( Z- R" l! e& K0 }/ p% x" EPascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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