TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
9 A( c8 R0 t3 t  j  B  Kunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
. b0 P$ b. \( [5 q% c# Pprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
& }5 k# l+ D5 p( q; hfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
# i; c7 a" V. Pto fundamentally justified levels.
3 Y0 M& L* l! I" u9 OWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
; g6 I0 i0 x2 ~! b+ x; dthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
* W/ o& |# C+ v4 S  `where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
5 o  Y+ v: t1 U! x- q' t6 M' }there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
1 d/ V! m8 r) d* f“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
! Y3 h/ O0 n9 Q1 E  @* b. lhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
  |% `1 H& Y0 R; S7 lthe construction of too many new homes over the boom
' Y( _9 C3 A" e9 ~) cmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
+ l5 b  n- m8 ^/ j2 `remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
/ ^, u: Q' O4 s5 f+ t* lto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
$ S" }1 @! }  L# O, k- M6 I; v% U125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
/ ~  J" C% _) }4 e! T  r2 E7 T3 Uin the fourth quarter.
* `8 R, H$ r2 J0 _, dTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
3 B8 J% d5 T: b0 K+ w2 n0 Z5 `province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
& t6 d* F5 _3 {# V' Hlong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
: Q, H* d( L: T9 t, @1 [  A# n- D  Zof residential construction.
) i) M7 }9 M7 r; x& ~+ b% {To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
) T. l  R( y0 Toptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
2 b/ b& Q1 N5 ?9 D8 W* q/ \/ yunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
+ P# E' ?, ?, Z% Zmany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
" g1 y+ U# ~" p$ ~, U  g1 t. [Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
4 x: N7 n$ U4 B4 C' ?. lalready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
: I# l1 {$ ?7 H; |: jQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
0 |8 r5 s" u# Y: U! W7 Zstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
  M2 q" K/ a2 fMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
  D4 Q* H- e) R+ j* J3 f; z+ C1 urates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
# I5 l9 X$ |, x5 ^0 l+ Scyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
: c: m, `# i# F: M; e* Nhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
' a- T* Y  V8 [# {  {& y7 tcyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
  S# q5 `8 C& l  i+ n5 Finter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
$ x& w  `1 o, X# p- k0 v3 fOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
" q; B% p5 w, U, d6 ]MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
9 e$ R. o8 S+ t* }Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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