TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
( z- J, ^4 E) {! yfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
1 ?" f0 z3 p6 C2 V2 j, }that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
  h! ?. G% ~0 Q- c% V2 C- P% V12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
, z3 l- P  U2 X% _4 Y! L: _; v2 swhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
% @: A" i6 s# o4 N9 Z# d1 J8 {where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
0 k  \) O8 u  K* D/ J“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
( \( d" ]+ z& P8 K  e8 k6 k1 ~While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
% H9 B% U( M" L5 Z2 ]; Hfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
, F% i* i9 H3 r* }2 _remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
! h1 f- Z$ M5 ~is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
& w7 T7 d4 ]" pto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
! P9 N: f) C- N# O# O$ y+ o( u4 Q, d/ mprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
1 H- J8 o& d* M3 w! m! E, Bvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
% z5 a$ T, i1 p, q: Vregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
, O2 T( t. t& j2 a, vof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
/ J, a7 w7 I& h: }+ H6 |) \fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
  L/ a" ]3 S5 I' _- G' E, Junits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
) \4 a" m/ P4 j* H' ~& O0 Tmany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
+ _% p/ m+ B; P* RRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
& z7 C5 [1 S5 A' r6 Lwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
  H" |' p  s' T, P* b7 g# `buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
* m  b/ s' I, C6 j2 p4 s0 f; Ohas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
  z% G8 e# |) S! f( nweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
) c4 T3 z" ~4 Z/ ?" R9 ~Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
2 k+ f3 O% W& h' F* X$ F: Cgiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
4 C+ y0 Y. Y: y; R7 r3 n" J% e8 Qcyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
( s% W" J1 F/ _+ e5 \4 tlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
$ _1 S* }$ s; {+ K) M$ Z9 K" ocondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
  C3 S8 g/ i0 \' T% t+ Q: T! D& l4 creach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
- V* ~, m1 Q. ~# ^% t) c8 y  [cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
% N8 j# N' h- i+ q% O5 u+ ~residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
. x/ i6 g4 a6 y# q& A+ x- J9 {" LOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
+ ?# r5 S3 G- ~( g" y+ Y416-982-8063
" @5 w1 k! |3 Q4 h: @  qPascal Gauthier, Economist
: x! u* t+ d7 s. O. G. z416-944-5730
1 ^8 y' W, M' i3 c
6 F. \* y7 m- C& u: |) s' z0 X( Uhttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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