TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
8 w4 j* P1 w* v" g( G6 J. g+ ounsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
0 \2 d) r' c6 [prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
3 a9 P! f& D! Noverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
7 J4 {( O* A  ~5 Y4 h6 Y( X" [12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
1 O. O2 u" I: [- X" ?By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
" y/ d* b' N; F8 x; C7 [their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
, b0 p8 f$ }5 d, iaffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
6 L6 M( ~" [+ ^, z$ Wto fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
1 F- ]  I- }7 J$ A  Rwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
1 ~" |1 k6 S8 p2 G8 b7 J3 fthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
+ a! A6 R7 y% [4 _1 ?" ]5 x$ V8 Zthere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
7 b" T( z2 L1 T+ w7 C/ S: |homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
& l& [5 P! g3 h5 y  mthat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
0 w/ ~" T# J# q5 }2 t: Emeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
8 a7 v9 }' N  i2 y) _on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
7 h& e$ e1 N3 E: Q2 N8 Rin the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
# F( W! c" \7 P. l7 u) Qfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
1 ~, s) E  _4 H8 @values since house prices should track incomes over the
/ j8 M/ u$ s2 z! T2 Y6 Hlong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
# T& K2 P) x, m) x. @0 U+ ?3 w4 w: ATo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
! w. |) o. M- V. G. W& Dwould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
) k0 d# Z$ q+ Z# b) R1 M+ O' Lfundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
( Z6 \( M9 j% F8 y" B4 Sunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
1 ]* |: L" p/ R5 c: o( J9 mwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
& t6 B. F2 e* }, P' p7 c' j+ h9 Galready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
4 _9 R7 u% F! b: n  Ivery time that the resale market has swung into strong
2 ^% G3 c  H8 N, K% fbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
3 c2 ?! Q2 ~$ o- `; o. Mweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
2 n- O# j- X% U8 R, H) V3 fstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
% G9 @1 z) M: i2 u" Z6 Z! Y1 r$ |" aMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
$ U- U' H4 B, \) fgiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
  j! E% y' ^6 `cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
4 E2 u4 b+ o2 u7 n) h/ Fconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
2 X$ n* h; m& f/ w5 c# F& Ospike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
% }  Q% A5 g9 o. `" y2 nGrant Bishop, Economist
/ |+ O5 e; ^9 u9 q. l9 `  f1 J416-982-8063
/ _. x: f. k  d5 n# wPascal Gauthier, Economist
& S& `# X& D+ t) A$ o416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

宋兵乙