TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
9 D/ C' j4 L" tprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
2 t6 o/ Y# S8 ?7 noverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
! I5 Y: ]3 L( K) J$ Q- rthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
' F/ L# v2 q* O) U& A( U- Gthree years.
6 s0 \/ J9 b3 U+ \0 MBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
, I7 y, |- `) l5 ^their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
& v) B$ W8 C& `5 A3 tboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
5 V2 I  K+ r' T, fWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
1 Q1 v3 S7 W/ ?3 Qwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
0 _5 f/ m% d7 u+ l; othere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
9 D0 K8 u+ R2 X. }homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
5 c' g. ~6 \& n8 ethat is now being rapidly reined in.
$ w: g* V9 b' d  gWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
) r" _3 B7 `: t9 Rto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
5 D: k' T! r& q0 R) n7 Y, H+ s1 Iresidential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
  L  c4 j2 g  l' G0 kwe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
! \) a) `/ F0 ^. \$ _0 S" x6 nprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
" @% I( {, r, n) e5 Q( Lvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
+ X: |  n* [8 r; t: Gregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
3 B- p6 F, F3 _. Eof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
6 f" u+ V: I/ _5 z“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
- z- T- b, T6 f3 y; _. ^would have occurred if housing had been priced
3 j) d& p8 \5 E( k" {; g; B' Roptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
2 G+ U9 x* b/ v  E6 @Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
/ M  f' j9 u2 E" P+ F) Avery time that the resale market has swung into strong
# ~. O& A1 Z, @% Ibuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
% ~3 _6 `3 _/ _' ~9 Z3 qweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
  G# f, t0 ?* o7 Q( `Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
3 ]; X6 I/ D% H. Mrates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
( ~$ L% l9 E! R) \6 }/ k. scyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
! w( O4 b1 w1 H: U) e- E+ |6 Ylimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
2 w  P4 F: T/ j3 _0 M  t: Rhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
8 ~1 Y+ h1 _2 @6 M5 s1 x2 r) Qanticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
  d) i9 D& V! `: r, z6 g& }5 iwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
8 F: H. @7 W* uOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
- P  D( k" c- j4 o  w$ |. }, YMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
2 t7 }0 p! R6 M. ]- yPascal Gauthier, Economist
( |' U+ c; Z2 e5 C8 E& g2 B416-944-5730
7 D3 K- ?" y* H1 D1 P( ^
7 w1 @, M, D  C0 g0 khttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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