TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
; v; W7 B- ^% o5 A3 Ifrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
9 M# \; O! q/ r0 p1 Moverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
9 _% w9 N, }! W$ [8 U0 r3 l3 e( fthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
: v0 ?3 u6 ^" H8 L12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
# J2 z( s% E' |. R$ ~2 i' X- o2 k4 HBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
, b( `/ u. T: m3 w, P" raffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
5 W- c- F$ n+ aboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
; f( _$ Q+ m, L9 jwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
6 z. B# Z& c* K5 uthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
3 c+ X% O8 K9 j0 \; k& Ewhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
1 P/ N. C; @: |: C) w* d4 W& r$ `6 f6 l9 B% Zthe construction of too many new homes over the boom
0 Q6 E9 w6 H: u, y4 E8 pmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
  J3 k# D8 Z2 g* bfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
+ a( J, d8 Y& ]; Hdampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
3 a8 ~3 [1 n- E( Y( k( x# Qin the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
3 N. I. U8 [- `; R9 {we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
8 Q" `$ _8 v+ }% p/ T" g' c% sfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
- U: L& y3 T0 b9 V2 ~province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
& n9 W0 `" e. E6 c4 S& K4 Z. s3 {! Cvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
  y: ]3 Z# ?- C: p% Z1 a& z! Lregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
$ E& @( _' A- o/ x, U- O( |of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
. X1 d7 m3 b% m6 m. R6 Dwould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
% K) c7 |1 _% B, |, U9 Ofundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
8 n% n$ d; c' n' Talready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
+ b8 W# ]% Y0 u9 D' L- k* Ivery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
) o( }; h5 H4 W/ y6 rstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
# x: a; d8 Y1 n0 O& U" GMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
, h' `7 K0 ]  y2 Z. h: Orates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
+ l. c% @3 `0 ]cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
, Q1 b/ v$ `8 C  `condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
3 l3 ^3 C' R$ R4 S4 q# `reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
# J5 I* Q4 C3 Fcyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
8 \! E2 Q! T* m1 |% \inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
' @' S  @' d" o" V% w4 myears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
+ J) Z1 T$ x/ lOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
7 e# \, V+ X% G" \- r0 rMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
/ z3 Q4 k: F: h+ U% jGrant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
4 n' Q$ x6 D/ n7 w2 D% t& r7 bPascal Gauthier, Economist
4 ]+ r% f$ m3 j. M, ]! K416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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