TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
, v$ }3 Y. C2 Q& K" _* G! Zfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
  C: p9 |: Z. d% t7 H* ]* z* i12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
5 r  Y  h- Z8 d# {2 T( `. _to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
( Z. _9 `$ T7 pwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
) |9 x7 B5 I: Y( l( o8 qhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
) M! \" ~7 \  x7 G# k/ F; w' YWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
" N8 G5 J0 C; ?' qon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
# }. M0 n, J- i( Wfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
" M7 G; x* C' L! f; W; I0 U; l1 mremain choppy and new residential construction will be
; @0 @+ x3 J6 l, Q7 L: f# M" w/ fdampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
. L" V& E1 T! Y5 {! k9 Eis now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
2 Z5 `, A  j" X4 x3 s/ @to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
4 y" _) u/ N: cresidential construction will fall further to around
( w; i1 B! ]4 H2 S125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
' q, F) w6 |. m% h; }" u, _To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
, I" a" V/ Z( Wwe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
/ X! K/ q, ?" Z8 K: O6 X& o  tvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
6 ]. E9 N4 b1 V% Clong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
! [. R& F  v# p. V2 `2 s“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
5 A" a  M7 w6 owould have occurred if housing had been priced
6 u/ k  Y7 C1 ooptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
1 ], d4 v/ b  z6 G( K  dfundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
& d9 r* \+ T  _5 P& r+ W' I7 R+ C- eunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
/ x( b" R  p/ ?many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
- n  D& L/ b& ]* w1 ~+ O* ^where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
2 D3 U" Z8 {8 y0 P% Ivery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
) |8 O( ~  J* M/ s3 qhas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
8 P) h$ V, {$ dweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
, ?6 T# `; k  l6 p# hQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
% l) V9 G7 m! k1 ]* `strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
+ R: u) k2 d6 ~5 U/ ~! W- P; ^rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
9 w' b/ h4 A; A$ S  i* ucyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
: A2 k2 V" a) v$ ^3 Blimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
7 h( J! x4 E) R! R  o/ V4 g& xcyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
3 ~& u: z( [- X& H: c$ tyears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
$ x% V- a6 g5 b4 i* awill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
8 [4 k# O! ]- a  Y; EMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
% o/ r3 F2 X$ [5 K7 i0 s! X9 ]Grant Bishop, Economist
4 ?9 {" p6 P( g; M# W! f% |416-982-8063
$ x! v1 L, u. a6 O- }& i" {8 a$ b/ RPascal Gauthier, Economist
" E& H$ Q6 v6 L- H416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

宋兵乙