TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
9 q8 W; s; o8 F- h, j  `overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
5 n5 D* R1 W: _4 M( m& ythat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
2 [; ?- y1 g9 S12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
$ \0 g" L5 D; f( H# \, Vthree years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
5 r) }9 J2 I; a9 ~, j' Atheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
' J) |" D# _6 x1 X# l$ Uaffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
. L6 V& T& y4 U+ P: Z# C# e5 n( Dboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
4 D* @5 x  z, P2 X3 r  Cto fundamentally justified levels.
4 J0 o- d: g+ l" i- z$ ZWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
& M) W9 R- d' {* \4 \9 wwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
' ^) \/ m/ W, _) mthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
/ G, O7 Q! |9 o# E4 d" f' `where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
( \# ~6 ]# L# z3 K. t( }there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
, q" s3 B' R8 n: Dthat is now being rapidly reined in.
: c6 h; \$ h1 A- e  lWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
& r4 {9 M3 v- x* r: p0 J4 G8 wremain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
( ]8 O  I4 P! s& W2 c4 B& s, cresidential construction will fall further to around
4 Q( K3 \% r, g3 S125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
2 N% P( L( n# B! h, C' C/ B" ein the fourth quarter.
  a6 |; @8 ~* u9 r: hTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
' T5 n0 {! ~) lvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
2 C) R1 p5 ~' n6 u; y  blong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
5 j) t$ x1 v, G! J$ }, kregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
4 q5 a( S# r8 i7 x3 o% oof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
8 g3 ^/ A& f  s, u+ ]# w2 w* q* [/ Fwould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
) v1 [+ K0 z# o/ Imany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
/ ?! q0 a! J& C: hwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
. n' ]8 _, P' {- \5 ]weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
% ~& K  `8 |  a/ f0 d) b, CQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
1 O( q+ w# `% v8 @! J6 tcyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
; L* y3 k1 `7 {% k" h; flimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
: V$ P/ u9 B2 W6 ~cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
+ d5 D) H5 Z7 I9 G2 v5 k8 j9 w( w( |! @inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
8 d* T  V- @! _  b5 kOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
) M  V% _6 K# t% L. `8 j7 h4 JMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
# @7 {( k1 D* g3 g- d7 Y8 A- PGrant Bishop, Economist
1 Y5 n2 q. \; J) S416-982-8063
; \# x3 i/ U: }9 B( ?Pascal Gauthier, Economist
( S0 W- }. H" U+ C9 T( m416-944-5730
* e' h8 S5 r9 r0 `5 P0 B- W( p
# N" {0 ^* V! ^) a3 l% C* Ohttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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