TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
* L7 k9 h6 F9 O9 ?/ F$ j2 K) n" [unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
' p1 W% `- K# D# oprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
( k; A: `% q3 {& ]9 s5 W; Lthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
: ~& p  I2 Q- A9 i) D+ S0 w4 Ithree years.
& {+ `2 k& w: W2 ^By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
. Z7 o# f+ v8 b# Taffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
0 f+ y. q5 @+ `! @% |" T; ito fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
  S; ^2 r% ]; h( B: c8 [( D* fwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
  D( U6 Y, q" O4 H3 w6 }there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
; s1 {8 L- l/ _% w+ athat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
3 H. g. L! ~4 ?0 |+ _2 C! gfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
- C" W, L* G/ ~: J6 premain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
( J! Y3 B4 |; m# Y- x. L% Jto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
3 t: k% z. j" @& ?7 V& Tin the fourth quarter.
2 e9 d% _; N! N; r; cTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
6 K7 |! |0 e( c& a  {regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
1 [- o' A! ]" \1 X$ Dwould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
; K, p; m& b& Pfundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
" C) K4 P5 i0 A- g" N4 _( Fbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
6 ]8 H: i8 i9 R$ |. \2 a- [5 KQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
$ I9 [0 B9 t' i3 d; rMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
9 R5 F( _7 H; ^given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
1 h5 h- J/ o0 t# gcyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
! u# _6 |4 r5 S4 j" N) F5 Vhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
; K/ |5 o% T/ gconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
( E. R; _8 M  z$ \" g! greach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
3 t% U) |* j) W: _& z) B6 u5 ucyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
% u' K$ E% p% z2 s) f6 [residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
2 O1 j, Y1 n# `9 X* Uyears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
) D( H, d. _% ^% J  mwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
" k! A9 L+ D* s$ l7 f9 }/ e3 ~Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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