TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
# P/ _7 e, a6 v4 n; Z3 b8 R' y6 H5 I12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
0 _( f: ^* M9 g  e  ]6 x( B. Lboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
* i7 C- ]: T$ i5 bto fundamentally justified levels.
) c; K6 C4 P. {We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
% t0 |2 }! g/ Q- B8 \, K1 ^, Lwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
5 k7 Z, I0 _# }( P/ qwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
8 u5 S0 u7 j& Y' Hhomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
* S6 k: i  K, \, I0 T2 ^8 K9 ]+ wthat is now being rapidly reined in.
- ?  L: a* L  @While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
/ j, z- t! H! Y; H" ffrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
5 r$ s8 Y- P8 i- iremain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
9 A2 Q5 H. Y' L2 t+ a5 o; ^is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
2 b+ e2 b( a7 Uin the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
# i  h  |$ q9 G6 i% ^3 {we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
, d2 d0 x8 R# k2 |* W/ vregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
4 ~* t+ ?( E4 |/ `! [: k+ Q" q2 Y* j$ oTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
" w6 C. m5 ^  ^1 P% ]fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
8 G0 @7 |6 S- d1 b( ~5 a0 kunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
. g( {5 L7 n1 U+ I' f9 _many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
( |0 T; u7 J" Ipopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
/ h. b4 Y2 \  i; O. [& U& salready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
- Z! J) g& ]/ X) gvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
' r" F; F4 b, |) S; Jbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
, s8 r5 `' ]4 I$ HQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
# |+ j1 |. {0 m) x. L' WMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
* l: i  x0 A$ Ugiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
/ Q" _% j9 z& O! z( \( Vcyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
* Q$ d" Z; K4 v5 \& q: j+ llimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
; ^  C, ~* p# t2 v7 q& \, Ahigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
6 H* O( q& V& t* U) c6 dconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
% W; f5 f0 s( x. H4 f. X" x* {reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
+ E0 E) X( }/ l: zinter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
, k- N7 P, w$ s) i, Z0 S, U, TOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
% M8 I/ _5 D9 Z' J! I* yPascal Gauthier, Economist
2 L0 |8 V& `. L! S) g416-944-5730
2 @% q* A/ [" t
2 _( u9 v/ T- _9 Ihttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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