TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
% Y7 t) W/ u$ B0 q1 C# d8 Junsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
. ?2 a: a2 u; Vfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
, E5 ?4 _! I/ }! `4 I, S7 zoverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
4 I$ l' D6 ?# Q8 }three years.
+ g, ?. b, O% UBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
* A3 c0 g0 B! haffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
. k# N; q5 y" p" |1 l5 zboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
+ J) v6 a6 \! t; F* hto fundamentally justified levels.
1 _( |0 p. k" s& NWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
& Q( z8 q4 R/ j9 Ywhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
. A; ?# F5 i. t( s: |5 k6 TWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
  B: i) t" W4 N5 ]0 l/ m4 f6 d; xthe construction of too many new homes over the boom
, l% m6 F: v3 s3 Tmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
5 H; o  C. w7 `# w3 g3 o) F3 Eon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
- X) w. p9 X0 `! G8 z; Q2 jfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
6 i% l) M/ |) P- [: Bdampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
0 a, `7 X. Y& Cresidential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
% Q. |9 n! d% ^0 ?& `) P- W9 Qwe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
: V4 }5 \# A* f6 Kfundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
. O. D* |0 h4 ^province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
# s+ Y! V& j8 R, [! Rvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
- ^. W: e9 o  U: r& w“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
. [9 |+ u3 r3 ~would have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
7 G5 E1 b; ^1 D6 d1 n$ |fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
( S; Q, a9 ]7 m" hunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
5 w6 {4 _/ Y8 T( i) I: R" ]% L' U- amany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
% y( o5 K1 U* J4 a" Svery time that the resale market has swung into strong
  `9 K: d2 T" I5 q  T' L3 _buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
9 H/ {8 P3 Q6 V& Z3 E  {weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
: k: r/ a" S5 c$ v3 p1 Y3 h1 Y. Cstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
/ B, l3 S( c3 m* srates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
( O' Y% Q( K# U+ Dcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
& k% _+ D" O& ^! ]# C) E5 \high levels of apartment-style units presently under
" L% W. w* j! T+ q6 K$ `construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
" V4 J1 b5 \/ y/ `: D' U' lcyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
) n7 N, n2 I  L- g2 U- ~residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
, ~( H, U, H2 a' y- L# nanticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
# [# n- G) u4 Y5 X2 ?7 Qwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
/ ~  m# V: @: ~/ nMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
' T5 `2 B. _# |8 r2 \3 X& N# kGrant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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