TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
' a0 p1 }% T: |6 tunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
7 Q/ D, _$ ~7 `% ?" qprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
8 }% k$ X" ]. r( q9 zoverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
/ G0 j: a- C- ltheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
$ D! ]7 {  {$ q2 L8 v3 I; x# raffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
2 m2 A" j4 \3 q1 N: m6 nboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
5 X# I  v2 J9 \' k! n; n/ E' a# |to fundamentally justified levels.
) A. _# u+ m+ _' Q% F. s- ]; mWe consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
- Q& P! I2 M7 e& j! U, qwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
1 Y& W+ e/ q/ x( J+ Z! n# _that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
9 k" V0 U$ V4 ^( o8 ^where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
3 \# E: J& e+ ~3 u4 ethere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
6 c4 x6 B$ M6 l2 Z5 j& W) Cthat is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
+ {( m# l' ?* Non markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
0 s# J/ Z/ a* J8 \from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
# p! p" e1 ^! C( _& p- lremain choppy and new residential construction will be
$ t% E; B0 }% L1 m# \dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
% Q# R& K+ }: A& ?7 _is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
: g& W3 D$ E- ?! G% \125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
, {9 q( I1 l6 A! r! h# jTo quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
' h) E% D. r- o+ B- mwe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
* ]' H4 A: p. y- T' [4 dvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
8 G  N; \' c1 x; e5 Ilong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
; Q2 a# o* J' l4 d8 e# Dof residential construction.
! l' N; U; w" E9 `6 H' r+ vTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
) @5 `& o# i" k! c8 Toptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
8 t' p! U% ]3 G/ J  vunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
; @+ G- h$ s9 K7 O3 r( wRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
5 P- \/ ~4 ^: F2 l$ a- falready witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
& T" y' _+ ?5 _5 U( P* lvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
; c9 N8 x5 n& ?+ m( Z( p! k' Frates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
  k# G0 T  l2 Q2 Acyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
7 j+ q- U# @& ^0 F7 _$ ~% bcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
' G6 ^7 r- ]" m* Lresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
/ L4 L' D  c3 G, y' ianticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
5 j" Y- B! K# z, K, P- S. x* Tinter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
- f) Y; E5 w& r+ K8 V, R' Y, dOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
% H/ u7 n$ l. |* p! t% ~MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730
4 |0 @4 }+ G) K
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

宋兵乙