TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
( g  ?4 m* [  D+ \0 }1 l& V* Bunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
) G' y; P1 m: Cprices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
6 G# Y0 S' _6 ?. R0 ~  |fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
$ H  @$ q5 z, o1 z$ R5 l$ }8 noverpricing compelled a level of residential construction
' ^+ |$ U1 F# t9 F7 athat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
" K  a  A5 k- y: a7 r% Y; j, j12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
/ \* e) d* s- H8 Ithree years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
+ X$ U% g, w% ^, {their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
* {8 u" U4 t3 j! R6 g( Taffordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
+ k) X! e- U3 K7 R# f9 Fboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
  q8 z  l' N0 [! Y/ ]5 d' T* V8 {to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
+ G/ W, R" J7 X& owhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
# G9 ~) h: `5 n! Uthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
/ I* _- Z0 H& W2 i“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
1 _* c* }8 x9 x+ T5 {, u. e) athe construction of too many new homes over the boom
: t: ~% r3 U* \0 V( [* rmeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
; [) j9 `  p0 @4 L, W+ f' Cfrom the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
# c2 n4 }5 M. idampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
! e( _8 B) D! U8 xresidential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
. ?" c6 H0 A9 E2 I( y$ hin the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
4 V9 I" b2 f. r; A5 jregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
7 o' J1 z5 ^5 W; x8 Koptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
3 n8 K6 I9 d' e: q# {Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
6 l1 S+ N. t) V: Lwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
  M- Q" q' w/ V6 D: Z- c6 \population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
' i+ ?- {- h" ]has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
3 U, {0 u  k7 {Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
& o9 G- C1 M; H0 S% Gstrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
# P9 Y' X& g6 Ggiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
0 h3 y; z$ s1 c" ^/ [cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
/ h! [6 Q4 C4 O, kcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
. Z( g( W: @! B( k. yhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
4 {: X! f1 e; Econstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
) A: `" e" Q0 Q0 \& r* V4 K1 g& `reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
+ C+ M+ R& M! y" Wspike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
inter-provincial and international migration over the coming
3 e8 z( T  m; t) P% ~+ pyears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
$ P: i, _+ |! dMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
6 S+ N$ v. T) l. v$ @1 u416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730
! @0 N8 _" k1 a* S" [6 r
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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