TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
) A( y$ i/ I* \5 R" Y+ t3 |fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
/ v/ A' U& p; k* D* @overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
# ?0 j6 E& X, e% F12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
4 G  W5 ^0 `& y7 Z$ L3 sBy “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
( Z* m; z; i! Q  Ztheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
2 B# ?6 ]+ ]' I. i* B; ?affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
) a6 \5 [$ ^0 E/ w1 B2 I4 Y/ Nboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
, Z5 p, {% Z, I7 Pwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
/ R* G7 i4 h; {' \0 O) M6 VWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
5 \/ C+ k9 {. n3 C1 _9 R" @) }the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
+ H  u7 D9 y$ _from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
! j; Y, a& ~4 Y9 U* I) H( D3 Oremain choppy and new residential construction will be
2 p7 |7 E5 F  |dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
) S. X  B  o) l2 wis now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
! L8 I+ A( |' h% y( ~1 _1 [4 Hto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
- \. w; q& J8 ^! t. ]5 Q6 ^residential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
7 A$ j" }" D! ]! o( |0 c6 O$ z6 Hwe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
2 G  m3 h: `& O# ]fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
8 e: Y% |2 d" c7 {# O$ w- mprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
3 Q0 W% M7 W' R6 i! u7 D: _values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
# Z' S% }0 z& q" bregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
- c! o3 h7 Z: X+ Y+ o  Mof residential construction.
9 M; D3 f3 Y4 B+ s% W0 LTo examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
5 B- q1 Q  I" }& L9 o0 h/ i" o" \* S“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
" M! e" Z) P5 h& i3 e+ vwould have occurred if housing had been priced
% f$ Q6 r. B$ aoptimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
0 p; k. u5 |4 _+ o! L; ]* Ufundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
! w( p" a6 ?! i6 G8 u% I, h* funits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
4 t- C1 F. b8 O1 {- j( sRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
' R7 S5 z! E/ v8 B+ @- h+ ~6 uvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
3 C. W  m1 i6 r, Wbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
6 Z& q( b. w; \2 s" P/ Yweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
9 f; F& }3 K' ^" oQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
Montréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
# x! ?- h" J$ ogiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
+ d2 ^1 _0 f# P$ P7 ^# Ucyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
limited – with the important exception of the Toronto
6 c% e4 s' R& Y3 icondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
high levels of apartment-style units presently under
2 J( `5 s1 j& @* Fconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
. h9 r! ]( A, G/ s1 Z. wcyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
; X( s# |8 V' H( linter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
7 {2 F$ k& F# L5 C) S6 m$ k. aOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
, O# w' V: o( l6 B4 I: j/ U9 PMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
  L9 l/ d. x. `! a; R0 RGrant Bishop, Economist
6 `0 O5 g2 }& S: K# Q& @0 _8 X416-982-8063
Pascal Gauthier, Economist
, b8 o9 i  a( x1 m: Z; d9 }416-944-5730

http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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