TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
( ?; L' y. `& T: }% u% U% Efrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
8 g1 l+ a- Y' \) \* B8 {$ T8 C6 eunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
0 F- d% U+ _* ^, `$ V& |  hfundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
! A+ |% c( x7 l6 k: P0 {overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
0 w( l1 Y& N. Z2 z1 Y12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
) z# T4 V5 }/ {$ X% Athree years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
0 C0 G# C) }% T; E6 ?4 W: w' Utheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
$ t1 e# c0 b4 z3 ~1 L9 ^both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
, _. O4 z2 Z; d# j2 O% G% \that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
' }7 W7 R" y( u! Q! fthere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
that is now being rapidly reined in.
) j0 D/ `" D4 @While most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
1 x- v( M4 l' q7 ]) Ymeans a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
6 g0 y6 {& d1 ~1 }( j1 Con markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
$ C! V6 \" P' C6 h$ J% v+ a! Aremain choppy and new residential construction will be
7 ]: \7 ]% F* ddampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
# s- c8 ^( m7 k' l5 eto persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
8 z' {  G8 J' w5 k( _125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
( M( ^: j9 L  \4 Mprovince. Affordability is the key concept behind home
0 j' a2 |. d" y: d7 v1 `2 yvalues since house prices should track incomes over the
/ i) P8 [% x5 ^long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
' S- a7 l$ G* Vregard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
- V% }& ^4 ~8 Y# E! V% q6 zof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
* Z' s* N$ ^+ w- B2 T- K“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
! J" X9 O* G0 X3 c* x, v# ]optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
fundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
0 y$ V1 [) r) B+ }% gRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
2 t/ v$ j8 x5 c, O  K  |+ ^$ v3 ]population inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
# d5 s( `" z& M# \+ Cbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
5 Y, u8 E$ X% I1 a$ T# I2 T" fhas been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
Québec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
' U6 l% b: [2 \$ MMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
" N; J5 W/ s& `6 i6 n1 Wgiven the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
& T$ w/ H% ]( }9 ]+ k" Rlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
) U7 T( `0 U6 S. X, I: Dcondo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
( `7 o/ Z- A" Lhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
construction mean that record numbers of condos will
- u- E( b; x! h; [6 C4 S# Rreach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
( n( M, c4 p4 s- L! c1 \spike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
+ Z! `2 E  R' f6 F5 Kresidential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
- V) r6 Y7 W# Z* U8 \% D7 ]' einter-provincial and international migration over the coming
* T: f0 O6 ?0 [; M' T  A0 K5 P  |: kyears, which, along with improvements in affordability,
, {2 Z5 X9 G7 I% Cwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
, w$ \- i: G% p3 B* z/ \. S5 @$ \% aPascal Gauthier, Economist
$ [) D- b- f( r( x5 g416-944-5730
1 D- C; v$ Y) b5 g
( k; ~- l: c' \http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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