TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
9 p/ W0 O5 ?. p3 E- b! u6 B* p# zfrom 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
7 L! C2 a+ s* g* a, H0 |) F5 hunsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
that exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
  {0 |. O6 G5 c. u$ |, R# N  Btheir fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
both a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
/ O3 \$ t, U. s- U% lwhere homebuyers buy up too many houses and
that this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
where builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
there is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
0 H5 ], T1 n3 x/ g, `5 E; phomebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
$ [  @/ M8 F5 U3 e$ Bthat is now being rapidly reined in.
: e% ~9 y8 L! z* yWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
on markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
dampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
residential construction will fall further to around
6 C! Q; }# @+ {$ q3 e. I; e125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
; |2 O6 N1 x' {6 ain the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
we first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
values since house prices should track incomes over the
! W" k: v( S4 u+ glong-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
; d* @. Z/ Y& W0 q1 h9 c! @: G9 ^regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
1 F  e4 Z& {8 f$ _of residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
, ^  o& W8 M& i& N' B: q, A% M6 w& C“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
would have occurred if housing had been priced
0 |/ \; |, x' e1 X* ~optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
( l: ?3 s' e' gfundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
units were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
7 K7 z/ y( T: V9 S( ^% e: pmany houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
2 ^, j/ _4 d  l* w" f8 @Regionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
where housing demand will further contract under waning
1 }, U7 k) M& U! X  ppopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
* x! g# p3 o8 `! E( Xvery time that the resale market has swung into strong
buyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
weakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
. T" [0 D3 }% a' B& ^0 g. J6 }* DQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
+ p1 j; K2 B' ystrange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
; d4 B. G( {  L; k4 m- W* gMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
# b& `, \3 i2 Gcyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
  d% x* ^6 t! y1 }! a9 Ulimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
3 d" o* N; B# Z. ^* b7 ~condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
+ m/ m: @7 U3 Q3 U! Dhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
. A9 H  J: L1 \+ c. lconstruction mean that record numbers of condos will
9 Y! s9 i. ~, T3 t% d$ D: breach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
) M0 g. q: g/ X- g# e) \1 acyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
% }- [9 V: |$ B* G8 [7 e. fspike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
anticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
. x0 H4 e# c/ O+ Finter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
will alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
6 A2 Z" p; |$ W; B, e5 eMARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
Grant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
/ X# T) s" J! Q+ K. \% Z* NPascal Gauthier, Economist
+ i0 {! d9 m. F; c! j; y: k+ n$ G0 M416-944-5730
" J  C3 s, X' G- H0 |% H
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

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