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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
5 F2 ^5 ?$ P0 o% u% r) BPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.1 c& i" T8 `8 _4 J; k! U. y
6 M* g2 U2 r d% {Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.) x$ l9 }" B% j/ q
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.5 t) ?, F1 M* r6 ]
0 q) S* V" k: R- H5 L3 e' g"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.2 P- ^+ V) K% h
8 f2 q$ A' n5 t"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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. ^' a5 {2 o1 @In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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% c X' U& o b9 R4 ]Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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: L- O7 @7 W$ e( ~" X3 OThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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; A% G* j. c1 y! ~1 L$ Q& m, BThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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! i, S& i' a- C2 p; @; Z; ~"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.* c+ N& k3 e2 {6 ]7 t
q+ b2 i9 g6 f3 |3 R9 S7 B( cIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province., U! }5 ]5 D4 a& t" Z) Q0 O
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.& X( \( X9 c7 w" h# h! ]
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.7 o1 ]8 Q/ a# a/ B/ `3 _, f0 z" j
' o T4 E. _ O6 z4 F! {/ z- }"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."7 N5 K0 Y* S( Q H* a! y) V
& i1 B, z; `5 d, N, ?Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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5 K7 K% L6 J4 ~9 _4 l2 ^" \"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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# w2 v% u5 F# \5 z# a- ?4 OHirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.& s( h( q8 x. }& s) ] e
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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. v4 h+ I( z% X4 d. _"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."4 C8 ]. S4 ]! o# _' b* i" {
# ] M/ i( N0 ?& g' D1 G0 _But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries. a8 J( P! S P& p+ F; @8 d; D% d
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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